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000
FXUS63 KJKL 261810
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
110 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1155 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

THE BAND OF STEADIER SNOW CONTINUES TO WORK ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES ON UPSLOPE FLOW/INSTABILITY
LINGERING BEHIND THIS. SOME OF THIS LIGHTER SNOW AND FLURRIES ARE
BELOW THE RADAR BEAM...SO THE AREAL EXTENT AT THIS TIME MAY BE A BIT
GREATER THAN INDICATED BY RADAR. THE TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY
RUNNING BELOW GUIDANCE ONCE THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN AND WE CURRENTLY
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY...SO NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN MOST
PLACES...WITH A BUMP DOWN IN THE DEEPEST VALLEYS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
AND THEN NEARLY STEADY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW AN ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES PASSING BY WILL LEAD TO
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES THROUGH AT LEAST
TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT GENERALLY LESS
THAN A HALF OF AN INCH. HOWEVER...THE NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING AND SOME LIGHT FALLING PRECIP SHOULD ACT TO COOL
ROADWAYS AND SURFACES AND SLICK OR REFREEZE SPOTS ARE ANTICIPATED AT
TIMES ESPECIALLY ON ANY UNTREATED LOCATIONS. THESE COULD BECOME MORE
PREVALENT BY DARK...DEPENDING ON WHERE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
OCCUR. AN SPS HAS BEEN REISSUED TO HANDLE THIS AND GRAPHICAL NOWCASTS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 647 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

WSR-88D RADAR SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION THE MORNING AS CLIPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PROGRESS ACROSS
EASTERN KY. THE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN TRICKY OVERNIGHT INTO THIS
MORNING AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ADVECT FROM NW TO SE THIS
MORNING. FRESHENED UP GRIDS WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS THIS MORNING
INCLUDING A QUICK UPDATE OF WX GRIDS TO BETTER SHOW TRANSITION THIS
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

WSR-88D THIS MORNING HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KY THIS MORNING. BEST COVERAGE HAS GENERALLY
BEEN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER THIS MORNING WE HAVE SEEN GENERALLY LOWER AMTS OF PRECIP AND
TEMPS ARE STILL ABOVE FREEZING AT MOST LOCATIONS BESIDE BLACK MTN AT
8Z. GIVEN THIS HAVE LESSEN POPS AND ALSO LESSENED QPF AMTS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS MAY STILL BE TOO OPTIMISTIC AS RETURNS FROM RADAR HAVE
BEEN QUITE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN KY THIS MORNING. THIS TREND
OF LOWERING REFLECTIVITIES IS ALSO BACK UP BY THE HRRR WHICH ALSO
INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL AT 7Z. OTHERWISE LEFT OVER SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY
TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS
THE FAR EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EXIT EAST WHERE
IT DEVELOPS INTO A STRONG NOREASTER ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD LATER
TODAY. ACROSS EASTERN KY WE WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION TO GENERALLY
WEST TO NW FLOW. MODELS DO SHOW A FETCH OF MOISTURE DROPPING SOUTH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW HAVE MOVED
TOWARD SLIGHT CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS SW PORTION OF THE
CWA WHERE BETTER PLACEMENT OF MOISTURE AXIS EXISTS. EVEN SO GENERALLY
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AREA
WIDE COUPLED WITH GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
EXTENDED AND ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE LATTER PART. THE RUB HERE
IS THAT THE CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN TAKING HITS LATELY WITH THE FORECAST
FOR NEXT WEEKEND. A ONCE DISCARDED SOLUTION...MAINLY SEEN EARLIER IN
THE GFS...HAS RETURNED WITH SOME LIMITED SUPPORT FROM THE ECMWF.
EARLY ON...THE FOCUS WILL BE ON A DEEP CYCLONE OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WHILE A FAST FLOW OF ENERGY ROILS ABOVE EAST KENTUCKY ON A
GENERALLY NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST PATH INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
VORT STREAM IS SHUNTED EAST BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY AS HIGHER HEIGHTS
FROM A WEAKENING SOUTHERN RIDGE MOVES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND THEN OVER THE LOWER OHIO BASIN. AT THE SAME TIME...A
DEVELOPING TROUGH WILL DIP INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SLIDE EAST.
THIS FEATURE RAMPS UP INTO THE DAY THURSDAY WITH THE GFS PROVIDING
BETTER SUPPORT FOR THE MORE ROBUST SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF. THIS
TROUGH CROSSES EAST KENTUCKY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT WITH FLAT FLOW TO
FOLLOW. HOWEVER...OVER THE SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE NATION A LARGE
CLOSED LOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS NOW DEPICTED...PARTICULARLY BY
THE LATEST ECMWF...OPENING UP AND SPILLING ITS ENERGY EAST INTO THE
FLOW RIDING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE MODELS NOW SHOW SOME
CONNECTION TO THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY
MAKE THINGS MORE INTERESTING FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND IF THAT PANS
OUT. FOR NOW...WILL SHOW ONLY LIMITED INTERACTION AND EASE INTO A
MORE DYNAMIC SCENARIO GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND LACK OF MODEL RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. IN GENERAL...A BLEND
OF THE MODELS WAS PREFERRED THROUGH THE BULK OF THE FORECAST WITH
SOME ADJUSTMENT TOWARD THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND GIVEN
THE CONSISTENCY CONCERNS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE ENDING OF THE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES IN THE FAR EAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SOME
SUNSHINE RETURNING. THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ONLY A BRIEF WINDOW FOR DRYING CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE THE POTENTIAL
FOR MAINLY SNOW ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN FAST LOW AND MID LEVEL
FLOW RIDING ALONG A WEST TO EAST ARCTIC BOUNDARY LYING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ON THROUGH KENTUCKY BY
SUNDAY MORNING WITH SNOW CHANCES CONTINUING...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE CWA. THIS SETUP WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY...
THOUGH...AS THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE COLD AIR TO SETTLE INTO THE
STATE BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND A LOW TO FORM IN THE NORTHERN GULF
SLIDING NORTHEAST WHILE SENDING AMPLE MOISTURE NORTH INTO OUR AREA
ON THE COLD SIDE OF THIS ARCTIC BOUNDARY. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH
JUST SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...
BUT THAT WILL SURELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED ONE WAY OR ANOTHER AS THE
MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS SITUATION IN FUTURE RUNS.

THE CR GRID LOAD MADE FOR AN OKAY START TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST
GRIDS WITH CHANGES MADE PRIMARILY TO BETTER REFLECT THE LATEST ECMWF
SOLUTION FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ALSO...MADE SOME TYPICAL RIDGE
AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FOR LOWS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 109 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

EXPECT VARYING CIGS THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT AS SOME
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. WITH
THIS...ACTIVITY...CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE AT AIRFIELD MINS OR JUST
ABOVE FOR THE TAF SITES. VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WILL BE SHORT IN
DURATION DUE TO THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING.
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR AROUND 00Z THROUGH 06Z
TONIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH AND BRINGS ANOTHER
ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JVM/SHALLENBERGER








000
FXUS63 KJKL 261810
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
110 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1155 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

THE BAND OF STEADIER SNOW CONTINUES TO WORK ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES ON UPSLOPE FLOW/INSTABILITY
LINGERING BEHIND THIS. SOME OF THIS LIGHTER SNOW AND FLURRIES ARE
BELOW THE RADAR BEAM...SO THE AREAL EXTENT AT THIS TIME MAY BE A BIT
GREATER THAN INDICATED BY RADAR. THE TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY
RUNNING BELOW GUIDANCE ONCE THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN AND WE CURRENTLY
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY...SO NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN MOST
PLACES...WITH A BUMP DOWN IN THE DEEPEST VALLEYS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
AND THEN NEARLY STEADY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW AN ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES PASSING BY WILL LEAD TO
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES THROUGH AT LEAST
TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT GENERALLY LESS
THAN A HALF OF AN INCH. HOWEVER...THE NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING AND SOME LIGHT FALLING PRECIP SHOULD ACT TO COOL
ROADWAYS AND SURFACES AND SLICK OR REFREEZE SPOTS ARE ANTICIPATED AT
TIMES ESPECIALLY ON ANY UNTREATED LOCATIONS. THESE COULD BECOME MORE
PREVALENT BY DARK...DEPENDING ON WHERE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
OCCUR. AN SPS HAS BEEN REISSUED TO HANDLE THIS AND GRAPHICAL NOWCASTS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 647 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

WSR-88D RADAR SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION THE MORNING AS CLIPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PROGRESS ACROSS
EASTERN KY. THE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN TRICKY OVERNIGHT INTO THIS
MORNING AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ADVECT FROM NW TO SE THIS
MORNING. FRESHENED UP GRIDS WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS THIS MORNING
INCLUDING A QUICK UPDATE OF WX GRIDS TO BETTER SHOW TRANSITION THIS
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

WSR-88D THIS MORNING HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KY THIS MORNING. BEST COVERAGE HAS GENERALLY
BEEN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER THIS MORNING WE HAVE SEEN GENERALLY LOWER AMTS OF PRECIP AND
TEMPS ARE STILL ABOVE FREEZING AT MOST LOCATIONS BESIDE BLACK MTN AT
8Z. GIVEN THIS HAVE LESSEN POPS AND ALSO LESSENED QPF AMTS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS MAY STILL BE TOO OPTIMISTIC AS RETURNS FROM RADAR HAVE
BEEN QUITE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN KY THIS MORNING. THIS TREND
OF LOWERING REFLECTIVITIES IS ALSO BACK UP BY THE HRRR WHICH ALSO
INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL AT 7Z. OTHERWISE LEFT OVER SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY
TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS
THE FAR EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EXIT EAST WHERE
IT DEVELOPS INTO A STRONG NOREASTER ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD LATER
TODAY. ACROSS EASTERN KY WE WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION TO GENERALLY
WEST TO NW FLOW. MODELS DO SHOW A FETCH OF MOISTURE DROPPING SOUTH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW HAVE MOVED
TOWARD SLIGHT CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS SW PORTION OF THE
CWA WHERE BETTER PLACEMENT OF MOISTURE AXIS EXISTS. EVEN SO GENERALLY
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AREA
WIDE COUPLED WITH GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
EXTENDED AND ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE LATTER PART. THE RUB HERE
IS THAT THE CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN TAKING HITS LATELY WITH THE FORECAST
FOR NEXT WEEKEND. A ONCE DISCARDED SOLUTION...MAINLY SEEN EARLIER IN
THE GFS...HAS RETURNED WITH SOME LIMITED SUPPORT FROM THE ECMWF.
EARLY ON...THE FOCUS WILL BE ON A DEEP CYCLONE OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WHILE A FAST FLOW OF ENERGY ROILS ABOVE EAST KENTUCKY ON A
GENERALLY NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST PATH INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
VORT STREAM IS SHUNTED EAST BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY AS HIGHER HEIGHTS
FROM A WEAKENING SOUTHERN RIDGE MOVES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND THEN OVER THE LOWER OHIO BASIN. AT THE SAME TIME...A
DEVELOPING TROUGH WILL DIP INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SLIDE EAST.
THIS FEATURE RAMPS UP INTO THE DAY THURSDAY WITH THE GFS PROVIDING
BETTER SUPPORT FOR THE MORE ROBUST SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF. THIS
TROUGH CROSSES EAST KENTUCKY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT WITH FLAT FLOW TO
FOLLOW. HOWEVER...OVER THE SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE NATION A LARGE
CLOSED LOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS NOW DEPICTED...PARTICULARLY BY
THE LATEST ECMWF...OPENING UP AND SPILLING ITS ENERGY EAST INTO THE
FLOW RIDING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE MODELS NOW SHOW SOME
CONNECTION TO THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY
MAKE THINGS MORE INTERESTING FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND IF THAT PANS
OUT. FOR NOW...WILL SHOW ONLY LIMITED INTERACTION AND EASE INTO A
MORE DYNAMIC SCENARIO GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND LACK OF MODEL RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. IN GENERAL...A BLEND
OF THE MODELS WAS PREFERRED THROUGH THE BULK OF THE FORECAST WITH
SOME ADJUSTMENT TOWARD THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND GIVEN
THE CONSISTENCY CONCERNS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE ENDING OF THE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES IN THE FAR EAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SOME
SUNSHINE RETURNING. THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ONLY A BRIEF WINDOW FOR DRYING CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE THE POTENTIAL
FOR MAINLY SNOW ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN FAST LOW AND MID LEVEL
FLOW RIDING ALONG A WEST TO EAST ARCTIC BOUNDARY LYING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ON THROUGH KENTUCKY BY
SUNDAY MORNING WITH SNOW CHANCES CONTINUING...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE CWA. THIS SETUP WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY...
THOUGH...AS THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE COLD AIR TO SETTLE INTO THE
STATE BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND A LOW TO FORM IN THE NORTHERN GULF
SLIDING NORTHEAST WHILE SENDING AMPLE MOISTURE NORTH INTO OUR AREA
ON THE COLD SIDE OF THIS ARCTIC BOUNDARY. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH
JUST SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...
BUT THAT WILL SURELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED ONE WAY OR ANOTHER AS THE
MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS SITUATION IN FUTURE RUNS.

THE CR GRID LOAD MADE FOR AN OKAY START TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST
GRIDS WITH CHANGES MADE PRIMARILY TO BETTER REFLECT THE LATEST ECMWF
SOLUTION FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ALSO...MADE SOME TYPICAL RIDGE
AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FOR LOWS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 109 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

EXPECT VARYING CIGS THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT AS SOME
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. WITH
THIS...ACTIVITY...CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE AT AIRFIELD MINS OR JUST
ABOVE FOR THE TAF SITES. VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WILL BE SHORT IN
DURATION DUE TO THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING.
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR AROUND 00Z THROUGH 06Z
TONIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH AND BRINGS ANOTHER
ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JVM/SHALLENBERGER







000
FXUS63 KJKL 261705 AAB
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1205 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1155 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

THE BAND OF STEADIER SNOW CONTINUES TO WORK ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES ON UPSLOPE FLOW/INSTABILITY
LINGERING BEHIND THIS. SOME OF THIS LIGHTER SNOW AND FLURRIES ARE
BELOW THE RADAR BEAM...SO THE AREAL EXTENT AT THIS TIME MAY BE A BIT
GREATER THAN INDICATED BY RADAR. THE TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY
RUNNING BELOW GUIDANCE ONCE THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN AND WE CURRENTLY
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY...SO NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN MOST
PLACES...WITH A BUMP DOWN IN THE DEEPEST VALLEYS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
AND THEN NEARLY STEADY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW AN ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES PASSING BY WILL LEAD TO
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES THROUGH AT LEAST
TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT GENERALLY LESS
THAN A HALF OF AN INCH. HOWEVER...THE NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING AND SOME LIGHT FALLING PRECIP SHOULD ACT TO COOL
ROADWAYS AND SURFACES AND SLICK OR REFREEZE SPOTS ARE ANTICIPATED AT
TIMES ESPECIALLY ON ANY UNTREATED LOCATIONS. THESE COULD BECOME MORE
PREVALENT BY DARK...DEPENDING ON WHERE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
OCCUR. AN SPS HAS BEEN REISSUED TO HANDLE THIS AND GRAPHICAL NOWCASTS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 647 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

WSR-88D RADAR SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION THE MORNING AS CLIPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PROGRESS ACROSS
EASTERN KY. THE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN TRICKY OVERNIGHT INTO THIS
MORNING AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ADVECT FROM NW TO SE THIS
MORNING. FRESHENED UP GRIDS WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS THIS MORNING
INCLUDING A QUICK UPDATE OF WX GRIDS TO BETTER SHOW TRANSITION THIS
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

WSR-88D THIS MORNING HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KY THIS MORNING. BEST COVERAGE HAS GENERALLY
BEEN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER THIS MORNING WE HAVE SEEN GENERALLY LOWER AMTS OF PRECIP AND
TEMPS ARE STILL ABOVE FREEZING AT MOST LOCATIONS BESIDE BLACK MTN AT
8Z. GIVEN THIS HAVE LESSEN POPS AND ALSO LESSENED QPF AMTS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS MAY STILL BE TOO OPTIMISTIC AS RETURNS FROM RADAR HAVE
BEEN QUITE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN KY THIS MORNING. THIS TREND
OF LOWERING REFLECTIVITIES IS ALSO BACK UP BY THE HRRR WHICH ALSO
INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL AT 7Z. OTHERWISE LEFT OVER SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY
TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS
THE FAR EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EXIT EAST WHERE
IT DEVELOPS INTO A STRONG NOREASTER ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD LATER
TODAY. ACROSS EASTERN KY WE WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION TO GENERALLY
WEST TO NW FLOW. MODELS DO SHOW A FETCH OF MOISTURE DROPPING SOUTH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW HAVE MOVED
TOWARD SLIGHT CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS SW PORTION OF THE
CWA WHERE BETTER PLACEMENT OF MOISTURE AXIS EXISTS. EVEN SO GENERALLY
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AREA
WIDE COUPLED WITH GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
EXTENDED AND ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE LATTER PART. THE RUB HERE
IS THAT THE CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN TAKING HITS LATELY WITH THE FORECAST
FOR NEXT WEEKEND. A ONCE DISCARDED SOLUTION...MAINLY SEEN EARLIER IN
THE GFS...HAS RETURNED WITH SOME LIMITED SUPPORT FROM THE ECMWF.
EARLY ON...THE FOCUS WILL BE ON A DEEP CYCLONE OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WHILE A FAST FLOW OF ENERGY ROILS ABOVE EAST KENTUCKY ON A
GENERALLY NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST PATH INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
VORT STREAM IS SHUNTED EAST BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY AS HIGHER HEIGHTS
FROM A WEAKENING SOUTHERN RIDGE MOVES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND THEN OVER THE LOWER OHIO BASIN. AT THE SAME TIME...A
DEVELOPING TROUGH WILL DIP INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SLIDE EAST.
THIS FEATURE RAMPS UP INTO THE DAY THURSDAY WITH THE GFS PROVIDING
BETTER SUPPORT FOR THE MORE ROBUST SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF. THIS
TROUGH CROSSES EAST KENTUCKY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT WITH FLAT FLOW TO
FOLLOW. HOWEVER...OVER THE SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE NATION A LARGE
CLOSED LOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS NOW DEPICTED...PARTICULARLY BY
THE LATEST ECMWF...OPENING UP AND SPILLING ITS ENERGY EAST INTO THE
FLOW RIDING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE MODELS NOW SHOW SOME
CONNECTION TO THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY
MAKE THINGS MORE INTERESTING FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND IF THAT PANS
OUT. FOR NOW...WILL SHOW ONLY LIMITED INTERACTION AND EASE INTO A
MORE DYNAMIC SCENARIO GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND LACK OF MODEL RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. IN GENERAL...A BLEND
OF THE MODELS WAS PREFERRED THROUGH THE BULK OF THE FORECAST WITH
SOME ADJUSTMENT TOWARD THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND GIVEN
THE CONSISTENCY CONCERNS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE ENDING OF THE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES IN THE FAR EAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SOME
SUNSHINE RETURNING. THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ONLY A BRIEF WINDOW FOR DRYING CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE THE POTENTIAL
FOR MAINLY SNOW ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN FAST LOW AND MID LEVEL
FLOW RIDING ALONG A WEST TO EAST ARCTIC BOUNDARY LYING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ON THROUGH KENTUCKY BY
SUNDAY MORNING WITH SNOW CHANCES CONTINUING...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE CWA. THIS SETUP WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY...
THOUGH...AS THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE COLD AIR TO SETTLE INTO THE
STATE BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND A LOW TO FORM IN THE NORTHERN GULF
SLIDING NORTHEAST WHILE SENDING AMPLE MOISTURE NORTH INTO OUR AREA
ON THE COLD SIDE OF THIS ARCTIC BOUNDARY. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH
JUST SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...
BUT THAT WILL SURELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED ONE WAY OR ANOTHER AS THE
MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS SITUATION IN FUTURE RUNS.

THE CR GRID LOAD MADE FOR AN OKAY START TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST
GRIDS WITH CHANGES MADE PRIMARILY TO BETTER REFLECT THE LATEST ECMWF
SOLUTION FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ALSO...MADE SOME TYPICAL RIDGE
AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FOR LOWS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

MOST SITES HAVE COME DOWN THIS MORNING TO IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS. A
FEW SITES ARE SEEING LOWER VIS DUE TO FOG AND/OR SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING
ACROSS THOSE SITES. COLDER AIR IS SLOWING MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND WILL TRANSITION RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS AS WE GO
THROUGH THE MORNING. OTHERWISE A FEW SITES ARE SEEING GUSTY WINDS
AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS AS WINDS BEGIN SWITCHING WEST TO NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW CONTINUES TO EXIT TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE SITES
ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES
TO FILTER INTO EASTERN KY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...DJ







000
FXUS63 KJKL 261705 AAB
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1205 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1155 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

THE BAND OF STEADIER SNOW CONTINUES TO WORK ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES ON UPSLOPE FLOW/INSTABILITY
LINGERING BEHIND THIS. SOME OF THIS LIGHTER SNOW AND FLURRIES ARE
BELOW THE RADAR BEAM...SO THE AREAL EXTENT AT THIS TIME MAY BE A BIT
GREATER THAN INDICATED BY RADAR. THE TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY
RUNNING BELOW GUIDANCE ONCE THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN AND WE CURRENTLY
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY...SO NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN MOST
PLACES...WITH A BUMP DOWN IN THE DEEPEST VALLEYS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
AND THEN NEARLY STEADY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW AN ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES PASSING BY WILL LEAD TO
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES THROUGH AT LEAST
TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT GENERALLY LESS
THAN A HALF OF AN INCH. HOWEVER...THE NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING AND SOME LIGHT FALLING PRECIP SHOULD ACT TO COOL
ROADWAYS AND SURFACES AND SLICK OR REFREEZE SPOTS ARE ANTICIPATED AT
TIMES ESPECIALLY ON ANY UNTREATED LOCATIONS. THESE COULD BECOME MORE
PREVALENT BY DARK...DEPENDING ON WHERE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
OCCUR. AN SPS HAS BEEN REISSUED TO HANDLE THIS AND GRAPHICAL NOWCASTS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 647 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

WSR-88D RADAR SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION THE MORNING AS CLIPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PROGRESS ACROSS
EASTERN KY. THE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN TRICKY OVERNIGHT INTO THIS
MORNING AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ADVECT FROM NW TO SE THIS
MORNING. FRESHENED UP GRIDS WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS THIS MORNING
INCLUDING A QUICK UPDATE OF WX GRIDS TO BETTER SHOW TRANSITION THIS
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

WSR-88D THIS MORNING HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KY THIS MORNING. BEST COVERAGE HAS GENERALLY
BEEN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER THIS MORNING WE HAVE SEEN GENERALLY LOWER AMTS OF PRECIP AND
TEMPS ARE STILL ABOVE FREEZING AT MOST LOCATIONS BESIDE BLACK MTN AT
8Z. GIVEN THIS HAVE LESSEN POPS AND ALSO LESSENED QPF AMTS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS MAY STILL BE TOO OPTIMISTIC AS RETURNS FROM RADAR HAVE
BEEN QUITE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN KY THIS MORNING. THIS TREND
OF LOWERING REFLECTIVITIES IS ALSO BACK UP BY THE HRRR WHICH ALSO
INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL AT 7Z. OTHERWISE LEFT OVER SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY
TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS
THE FAR EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EXIT EAST WHERE
IT DEVELOPS INTO A STRONG NOREASTER ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD LATER
TODAY. ACROSS EASTERN KY WE WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION TO GENERALLY
WEST TO NW FLOW. MODELS DO SHOW A FETCH OF MOISTURE DROPPING SOUTH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW HAVE MOVED
TOWARD SLIGHT CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS SW PORTION OF THE
CWA WHERE BETTER PLACEMENT OF MOISTURE AXIS EXISTS. EVEN SO GENERALLY
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AREA
WIDE COUPLED WITH GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
EXTENDED AND ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE LATTER PART. THE RUB HERE
IS THAT THE CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN TAKING HITS LATELY WITH THE FORECAST
FOR NEXT WEEKEND. A ONCE DISCARDED SOLUTION...MAINLY SEEN EARLIER IN
THE GFS...HAS RETURNED WITH SOME LIMITED SUPPORT FROM THE ECMWF.
EARLY ON...THE FOCUS WILL BE ON A DEEP CYCLONE OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WHILE A FAST FLOW OF ENERGY ROILS ABOVE EAST KENTUCKY ON A
GENERALLY NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST PATH INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
VORT STREAM IS SHUNTED EAST BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY AS HIGHER HEIGHTS
FROM A WEAKENING SOUTHERN RIDGE MOVES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND THEN OVER THE LOWER OHIO BASIN. AT THE SAME TIME...A
DEVELOPING TROUGH WILL DIP INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SLIDE EAST.
THIS FEATURE RAMPS UP INTO THE DAY THURSDAY WITH THE GFS PROVIDING
BETTER SUPPORT FOR THE MORE ROBUST SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF. THIS
TROUGH CROSSES EAST KENTUCKY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT WITH FLAT FLOW TO
FOLLOW. HOWEVER...OVER THE SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE NATION A LARGE
CLOSED LOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS NOW DEPICTED...PARTICULARLY BY
THE LATEST ECMWF...OPENING UP AND SPILLING ITS ENERGY EAST INTO THE
FLOW RIDING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE MODELS NOW SHOW SOME
CONNECTION TO THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY
MAKE THINGS MORE INTERESTING FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND IF THAT PANS
OUT. FOR NOW...WILL SHOW ONLY LIMITED INTERACTION AND EASE INTO A
MORE DYNAMIC SCENARIO GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND LACK OF MODEL RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. IN GENERAL...A BLEND
OF THE MODELS WAS PREFERRED THROUGH THE BULK OF THE FORECAST WITH
SOME ADJUSTMENT TOWARD THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND GIVEN
THE CONSISTENCY CONCERNS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE ENDING OF THE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES IN THE FAR EAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SOME
SUNSHINE RETURNING. THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ONLY A BRIEF WINDOW FOR DRYING CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE THE POTENTIAL
FOR MAINLY SNOW ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN FAST LOW AND MID LEVEL
FLOW RIDING ALONG A WEST TO EAST ARCTIC BOUNDARY LYING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ON THROUGH KENTUCKY BY
SUNDAY MORNING WITH SNOW CHANCES CONTINUING...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE CWA. THIS SETUP WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY...
THOUGH...AS THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE COLD AIR TO SETTLE INTO THE
STATE BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND A LOW TO FORM IN THE NORTHERN GULF
SLIDING NORTHEAST WHILE SENDING AMPLE MOISTURE NORTH INTO OUR AREA
ON THE COLD SIDE OF THIS ARCTIC BOUNDARY. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH
JUST SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...
BUT THAT WILL SURELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED ONE WAY OR ANOTHER AS THE
MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS SITUATION IN FUTURE RUNS.

THE CR GRID LOAD MADE FOR AN OKAY START TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST
GRIDS WITH CHANGES MADE PRIMARILY TO BETTER REFLECT THE LATEST ECMWF
SOLUTION FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ALSO...MADE SOME TYPICAL RIDGE
AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FOR LOWS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

MOST SITES HAVE COME DOWN THIS MORNING TO IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS. A
FEW SITES ARE SEEING LOWER VIS DUE TO FOG AND/OR SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING
ACROSS THOSE SITES. COLDER AIR IS SLOWING MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND WILL TRANSITION RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS AS WE GO
THROUGH THE MORNING. OTHERWISE A FEW SITES ARE SEEING GUSTY WINDS
AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS AS WINDS BEGIN SWITCHING WEST TO NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW CONTINUES TO EXIT TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE SITES
ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES
TO FILTER INTO EASTERN KY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...DJ








000
FXUS63 KJKL 261148
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
648 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 647 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

WSR-88D RADAR SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION THE MORNING AS CLIPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PROGRESS ACROSS
EASTERN KY. THE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN TRICKY OVERNIGHT INTO THIS
MORNING AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ADVECT FROM NW TO SE THIS
MORNING. FRESHENED UP GRIDS WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS THIS MORNING
INCLUDING A QUICK UPDATE OF WX GRIDS TO BETTER SHOW TRANSITION THIS
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

WSR-88D THIS MORNING HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KY THIS MORNING. BEST COVERAGE HAS GENERALLY
BEEN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER THIS MORNING WE HAVE SEEN GENERALLY LOWER AMTS OF PRECIP AND
TEMPS ARE STILL ABOVE FREEZING AT MOST LOCATIONS BESIDE BLACK MTN AT
8Z. GIVEN THIS HAVE LESSEN POPS AND ALSO LESSENED QPF AMTS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS MAY STILL BE TOO OPTIMISTIC AS RETURNS FROM RADAR HAVE
BEEN QUITE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN KY THIS MORNING. THIS TREND
OF LOWERING REFLECTIVITIES IS ALSO BACK UP BY THE HRRR WHICH ALSO
INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL AT 7Z. OTHERWISE LEFT OVER SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY
TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS
THE FAR EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EXIT EAST WHERE
IT DEVELOPS INTO A STRONG NOREASTER ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD LATER
TODAY. ACROSS EASTERN KY WE WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION TO GENERALLY
WEST TO NW FLOW. MODELS DO SHOW A FETCH OF MOISTURE DROPPING SOUTH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW HAVE MOVED
TOWARD SLIGHT CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS SW PORTION OF THE
CWA WHERE BETTER PLACEMENT OF MOISTURE AXIS EXISTS. EVEN SO GENERALLY
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AREA
WIDE COUPLED WITH GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
EXTENDED AND ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE LATTER PART. THE RUB HERE
IS THAT THE CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN TAKING HITS LATELY WITH THE FORECAST
FOR NEXT WEEKEND. A ONCE DISCARDED SOLUTION...MAINLY SEEN EARLIER IN
THE GFS...HAS RETURNED WITH SOME LIMITED SUPPORT FROM THE ECMWF.
EARLY ON...THE FOCUS WILL BE ON A DEEP CYCLONE OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WHILE A FAST FLOW OF ENERGY ROILS ABOVE EAST KENTUCKY ON A
GENERALLY NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST PATH INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
VORT STREAM IS SHUNTED EAST BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY AS HIGHER HEIGHTS
FROM A WEAKENING SOUTHERN RIDGE MOVES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND THEN OVER THE LOWER OHIO BASIN. AT THE SAME TIME...A
DEVELOPING TROUGH WILL DIP INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SLIDE EAST.
THIS FEATURE RAMPS UP INTO THE DAY THURSDAY WITH THE GFS PROVIDING
BETTER SUPPORT FOR THE MORE ROBUST SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF. THIS
TROUGH CROSSES EAST KENTUCKY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT WITH FLAT FLOW TO
FOLLOW. HOWEVER...OVER THE SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE NATION A LARGE
CLOSED LOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS NOW DEPICTED...PARTICULARLY BY
THE LATEST ECMWF...OPENING UP AND SPILLING ITS ENERGY EAST INTO THE
FLOW RIDING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE MODELS NOW SHOW SOME
CONNECTION TO THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY
MAKE THINGS MORE INTERESTING FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND IF THAT PANS
OUT. FOR NOW...WILL SHOW ONLY LIMITED INTERACTION AND EASE INTO A
MORE DYNAMIC SCENARIO GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND LACK OF MODEL RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. IN GENERAL...A BLEND
OF THE MODELS WAS PREFERRED THROUGH THE BULK OF THE FORECAST WITH
SOME ADJUSTMENT TOWARD THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND GIVEN
THE CONSISTENCY CONCERNS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE ENDING OF THE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES IN THE FAR EAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SOME
SUNSHINE RETURNING. THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ONLY A BRIEF WINDOW FOR DRYING CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE THE POTENTIAL
FOR MAINLY SNOW ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN FAST LOW AND MID LEVEL
FLOW RIDING ALONG A WEST TO EAST ARCTIC BOUNDARY LYING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ON THROUGH KENTUCKY BY
SUNDAY MORNING WITH SNOW CHANCES CONTINUING...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE CWA. THIS SETUP WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY...
THOUGH...AS THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE COLD AIR TO SETTLE INTO THE
STATE BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND A LOW TO FORM IN THE NORTHERN GULF
SLIDING NORTHEAST WHILE SENDING AMPLE MOISTURE NORTH INTO OUR AREA
ON THE COLD SIDE OF THIS ARCTIC BOUNDARY. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH
JUST SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...
BUT THAT WILL SURELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED ONE WAY OR ANOTHER AS THE
MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS SITUATION IN FUTURE RUNS.

THE CR GRID LOAD MADE FOR AN OKAY START TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST
GRIDS WITH CHANGES MADE PRIMARILY TO BETTER REFLECT THE LATEST ECMWF
SOLUTION FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ALSO...MADE SOME TYPICAL RIDGE
AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FOR LOWS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

MOST SITES HAVE COME DOWN THIS MORNING TO IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS. A
FEW SITES ARE SEEING LOWER VIS DUE TO FOG AND/OR SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING
ACROSS THOSE SITES. COLDER AIR IS SLOWING MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND WILL TRANSITION RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS AS WE GO
THROUGH THE MORNING. OTHERWISE A FEW SITES ARE SEEING GUSTY WINDS
AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS AS WINDS BEGIN SWITCHING WEST TO NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW CONTINUES TO EXIT TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE SITES
ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES
TO FILTER INTO EASTERN KY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...DJ








000
FXUS63 KJKL 261133
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
633 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

WSR-88D THIS MORNING HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KY THIS MORNING. BEST COVERAGE HAS GENERALLY
BEEN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER THIS MORNING WE HAVE SEEN GENERALLY LOWER AMTS OF PRECIP AND
TEMPS ARE STILL ABOVE FREEZING AT MOST LOCATIONS BESIDE BLACK MTN AT
8Z. GIVEN THIS HAVE LESSEN POPS AND ALSO LESSENED QPF AMTS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS MAY STILL BE TOO OPTIMISTIC AS RETURNS FROM RADAR HAVE
BEEN QUITE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN KY THIS MORNING. THIS TREND
OF LOWERING REFLECTIVITIES IS ALSO BACK UP BY THE HRRR WHICH ALSO
INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL AT 7Z. OTHERWISE LEFT OVER SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY
TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS
THE FAR EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EXIT EAST WHERE
IT DEVELOPS INTO A STRONG NOREASTER ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD LATER
TODAY. ACROSS EASTERN KY WE WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION TO GENERALLY
WEST TO NW FLOW. MODELS DO SHOW A FETCH OF MOISTURE DROPPING SOUTH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW HAVE MOVED
TOWARD SLIGHT CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS SW PORTION OF THE
CWA WHERE BETTER PLACEMENT OF MOISTURE AXIS EXISTS. EVEN SO GENERALLY
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AREA
WIDE COUPLED WITH GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
EXTENDED AND ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE LATTER PART. THE RUB HERE
IS THAT THE CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN TAKING HITS LATELY WITH THE FORECAST
FOR NEXT WEEKEND. A ONCE DISCARDED SOLUTION...MAINLY SEEN EARLIER IN
THE GFS...HAS RETURNED WITH SOME LIMITED SUPPORT FROM THE ECMWF.
EARLY ON...THE FOCUS WILL BE ON A DEEP CYCLONE OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WHILE A FAST FLOW OF ENERGY ROILS ABOVE EAST KENTUCKY ON A
GENERALLY NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST PATH INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
VORT STREAM IS SHUNTED EAST BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY AS HIGHER HEIGHTS
FROM A WEAKENING SOUTHERN RIDGE MOVES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND THEN OVER THE LOWER OHIO BASIN. AT THE SAME TIME...A
DEVELOPING TROUGH WILL DIP INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SLIDE EAST.
THIS FEATURE RAMPS UP INTO THE DAY THURSDAY WITH THE GFS PROVIDING
BETTER SUPPORT FOR THE MORE ROBUST SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF. THIS
TROUGH CROSSES EAST KENTUCKY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT WITH FLAT FLOW TO
FOLLOW. HOWEVER...OVER THE SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE NATION A LARGE
CLOSED LOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS NOW DEPICTED...PARTICULARLY BY
THE LATEST ECMWF...OPENING UP AND SPILLING ITS ENERGY EAST INTO THE
FLOW RIDING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE MODELS NOW SHOW SOME
CONNECTION TO THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY
MAKE THINGS MORE INTERESTING FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND IF THAT PANS
OUT. FOR NOW...WILL SHOW ONLY LIMITED INTERACTION AND EASE INTO A
MORE DYNAMIC SCENARIO GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND LACK OF MODEL RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. IN GENERAL...A BLEND
OF THE MODELS WAS PREFERRED THROUGH THE BULK OF THE FORECAST WITH
SOME ADJUSTMENT TOWARD THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND GIVEN
THE CONSISTENCY CONCERNS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE ENDING OF THE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES IN THE FAR EAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SOME
SUNSHINE RETURNING. THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ONLY A BRIEF WINDOW FOR DRYING CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE THE POTENTIAL
FOR MAINLY SNOW ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN FAST LOW AND MID LEVEL
FLOW RIDING ALONG A WEST TO EAST ARCTIC BOUNDARY LYING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ON THROUGH KENTUCKY BY
SUNDAY MORNING WITH SNOW CHANCES CONTINUING...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE CWA. THIS SETUP WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY...
THOUGH...AS THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE COLD AIR TO SETTLE INTO THE
STATE BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND A LOW TO FORM IN THE NORTHERN GULF
SLIDING NORTHEAST WHILE SENDING AMPLE MOISTURE NORTH INTO OUR AREA
ON THE COLD SIDE OF THIS ARCTIC BOUNDARY. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH
JUST SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...
BUT THAT WILL SURELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED ONE WAY OR ANOTHER AS THE
MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS SITUATION IN FUTURE RUNS.

THE CR GRID LOAD MADE FOR AN OKAY START TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST
GRIDS WITH CHANGES MADE PRIMARILY TO BETTER REFLECT THE LATEST ECMWF
SOLUTION FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ALSO...MADE SOME TYPICAL RIDGE
AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FOR LOWS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

MOST SITES HAVE COME DOWN THIS MORNING TO IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS. A
FEW SITES ARE SEEING LOWER VIS DUE TO FOG AND/OR SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING
ACROSS THOSE SITES. COLDER AIR IS SLOWING MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND WILL TRANSITION RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS AS WE GO
THROUGH THE MORNING. OTHERWISE A FEW SITES ARE SEEING GUSTY WINDS
AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS AS WINDS BEGIN SWITCHING WEST TO NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW CONTINUES TO EXIT TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE SITES
ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES
TO FILTER INTO EASTERN KY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...DJ








000
FXUS63 KJKL 261133
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
633 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

WSR-88D THIS MORNING HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KY THIS MORNING. BEST COVERAGE HAS GENERALLY
BEEN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER THIS MORNING WE HAVE SEEN GENERALLY LOWER AMTS OF PRECIP AND
TEMPS ARE STILL ABOVE FREEZING AT MOST LOCATIONS BESIDE BLACK MTN AT
8Z. GIVEN THIS HAVE LESSEN POPS AND ALSO LESSENED QPF AMTS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS MAY STILL BE TOO OPTIMISTIC AS RETURNS FROM RADAR HAVE
BEEN QUITE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN KY THIS MORNING. THIS TREND
OF LOWERING REFLECTIVITIES IS ALSO BACK UP BY THE HRRR WHICH ALSO
INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL AT 7Z. OTHERWISE LEFT OVER SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY
TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS
THE FAR EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EXIT EAST WHERE
IT DEVELOPS INTO A STRONG NOREASTER ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD LATER
TODAY. ACROSS EASTERN KY WE WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION TO GENERALLY
WEST TO NW FLOW. MODELS DO SHOW A FETCH OF MOISTURE DROPPING SOUTH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW HAVE MOVED
TOWARD SLIGHT CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS SW PORTION OF THE
CWA WHERE BETTER PLACEMENT OF MOISTURE AXIS EXISTS. EVEN SO GENERALLY
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AREA
WIDE COUPLED WITH GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
EXTENDED AND ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE LATTER PART. THE RUB HERE
IS THAT THE CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN TAKING HITS LATELY WITH THE FORECAST
FOR NEXT WEEKEND. A ONCE DISCARDED SOLUTION...MAINLY SEEN EARLIER IN
THE GFS...HAS RETURNED WITH SOME LIMITED SUPPORT FROM THE ECMWF.
EARLY ON...THE FOCUS WILL BE ON A DEEP CYCLONE OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WHILE A FAST FLOW OF ENERGY ROILS ABOVE EAST KENTUCKY ON A
GENERALLY NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST PATH INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
VORT STREAM IS SHUNTED EAST BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY AS HIGHER HEIGHTS
FROM A WEAKENING SOUTHERN RIDGE MOVES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND THEN OVER THE LOWER OHIO BASIN. AT THE SAME TIME...A
DEVELOPING TROUGH WILL DIP INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SLIDE EAST.
THIS FEATURE RAMPS UP INTO THE DAY THURSDAY WITH THE GFS PROVIDING
BETTER SUPPORT FOR THE MORE ROBUST SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF. THIS
TROUGH CROSSES EAST KENTUCKY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT WITH FLAT FLOW TO
FOLLOW. HOWEVER...OVER THE SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE NATION A LARGE
CLOSED LOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS NOW DEPICTED...PARTICULARLY BY
THE LATEST ECMWF...OPENING UP AND SPILLING ITS ENERGY EAST INTO THE
FLOW RIDING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE MODELS NOW SHOW SOME
CONNECTION TO THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY
MAKE THINGS MORE INTERESTING FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND IF THAT PANS
OUT. FOR NOW...WILL SHOW ONLY LIMITED INTERACTION AND EASE INTO A
MORE DYNAMIC SCENARIO GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND LACK OF MODEL RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. IN GENERAL...A BLEND
OF THE MODELS WAS PREFERRED THROUGH THE BULK OF THE FORECAST WITH
SOME ADJUSTMENT TOWARD THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND GIVEN
THE CONSISTENCY CONCERNS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE ENDING OF THE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES IN THE FAR EAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SOME
SUNSHINE RETURNING. THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ONLY A BRIEF WINDOW FOR DRYING CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE THE POTENTIAL
FOR MAINLY SNOW ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN FAST LOW AND MID LEVEL
FLOW RIDING ALONG A WEST TO EAST ARCTIC BOUNDARY LYING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ON THROUGH KENTUCKY BY
SUNDAY MORNING WITH SNOW CHANCES CONTINUING...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE CWA. THIS SETUP WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY...
THOUGH...AS THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE COLD AIR TO SETTLE INTO THE
STATE BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND A LOW TO FORM IN THE NORTHERN GULF
SLIDING NORTHEAST WHILE SENDING AMPLE MOISTURE NORTH INTO OUR AREA
ON THE COLD SIDE OF THIS ARCTIC BOUNDARY. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH
JUST SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...
BUT THAT WILL SURELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED ONE WAY OR ANOTHER AS THE
MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS SITUATION IN FUTURE RUNS.

THE CR GRID LOAD MADE FOR AN OKAY START TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST
GRIDS WITH CHANGES MADE PRIMARILY TO BETTER REFLECT THE LATEST ECMWF
SOLUTION FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ALSO...MADE SOME TYPICAL RIDGE
AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FOR LOWS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

MOST SITES HAVE COME DOWN THIS MORNING TO IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS. A
FEW SITES ARE SEEING LOWER VIS DUE TO FOG AND/OR SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING
ACROSS THOSE SITES. COLDER AIR IS SLOWING MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND WILL TRANSITION RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS AS WE GO
THROUGH THE MORNING. OTHERWISE A FEW SITES ARE SEEING GUSTY WINDS
AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS AS WINDS BEGIN SWITCHING WEST TO NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW CONTINUES TO EXIT TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE SITES
ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES
TO FILTER INTO EASTERN KY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...DJ







000
FXUS63 KJKL 260945 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
445 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

WSR-88D THIS MORNING HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KY THIS MORNING. BEST COVERAGE HAS GENERALLY
BEEN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER THIS MORNING WE HAVE SEEN GENERALLY LOWER AMTS OF PRECIP AND
TEMPS ARE STILL ABOVE FREEZING AT MOST LOCATIONS BESIDE BLACK MTN AT
8Z. GIVEN THIS HAVE LESSEN POPS AND ALSO LESSENED QPF AMTS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS MAY STILL BE TOO OPTIMISTIC AS RETURNS FROM RADAR HAVE
BEEN QUITE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN KY THIS MORNING. THIS TREND
OF LOWERING REFLECTIVITIES IS ALSO BACK UP BY THE HRRR WHICH ALSO
INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL AT 7Z. OTHERWISE LEFT OVER SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY
TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS
THE FAR EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EXIT EAST WHERE
IT DEVELOPS INTO A STRONG NOREASTER ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD LATER
TODAY. ACROSS EASTERN KY WE WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION TO GENERALLY
WEST TO NW FLOW. MODELS DO SHOW A FETCH OF MOISTURE DROPPING SOUTH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW HAVE MOVED
TOWARD SLIGHT CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS SW PORTION OF THE
CWA WHERE BETTER PLACEMENT OF MOISTURE AXIS EXISTS. EVEN SO GENERALLY
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AREA
WIDE COUPLED WITH GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
EXTENDED AND ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE LATTER PART. THE RUB HERE
IS THAT THE CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN TAKING HITS LATELY WITH THE FORECAST
FOR NEXT WEEKEND. A ONCE DISCARDED SOLUTION...MAINLY SEEN EARLIER IN
THE GFS...HAS RETURNED WITH SOME LIMITED SUPPORT FROM THE ECMWF.
EARLY ON...THE FOCUS WILL BE ON A DEEP CYCLONE OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WHILE A FAST FLOW OF ENERGY ROILS ABOVE EAST KENTUCKY ON A
GENERALLY NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST PATH INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
VORT STREAM IS SHUNTED EAST BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY AS HIGHER HEIGHTS
FROM A WEAKENING SOUTHERN RIDGE MOVES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND THEN OVER THE LOWER OHIO BASIN. AT THE SAME TIME...A
DEVELOPING TROUGH WILL DIP INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SLIDE EAST.
THIS FEATURE RAMPS UP INTO THE DAY THURSDAY WITH THE GFS PROVIDING
BETTER SUPPORT FOR THE MORE ROBUST SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF. THIS
TROUGH CROSSES EAST KENTUCKY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT WITH FLAT FLOW TO
FOLLOW. HOWEVER...OVER THE SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE NATION A LARGE
CLOSED LOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS NOW DEPICTED...PARTICULARLY BY
THE LATEST ECMWF...OPENING UP AND SPILLING ITS ENERGY EAST INTO THE
FLOW RIDING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE MODELS NOW SHOW SOME
CONNECTION TO THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY
MAKE THINGS MORE INTERESTING FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND IF THAT PANS
OUT. FOR NOW...WILL SHOW ONLY LIMITED INTERACTION AND EASE INTO A
MORE DYNAMIC SCENARIO GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND LACK OF MODEL RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. IN GENERAL...A BLEND
OF THE MODELS WAS PREFERRED THROUGH THE BULK OF THE FORECAST WITH
SOME ADJUSTMENT TOWARD THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND GIVEN
THE CONSISTENCY CONCERNS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE ENDING OF THE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES IN THE FAR EAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SOME
SUNSHINE RETURNING. THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ONLY A BRIEF WINDOW FOR DRYING CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE THE POTENTIAL
FOR MAINLY SNOW ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN FAST LOW AND MID LEVEL
FLOW RIDING ALONG A WEST TO EAST ARCTIC BOUNDARY LYING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ON THROUGH KENTUCKY BY
SUNDAY MORNING WITH SNOW CHANCES CONTINUING...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE CWA. THIS SETUP WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY...
THOUGH...AS THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE COLD AIR TO SETTLE INTO THE
STATE BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND A LOW TO FORM IN THE NORTHERN GULF
SLIDING NORTHEAST WHILE SENDING AMPLE MOISTURE NORTH INTO OUR AREA
ON THE COLD SIDE OF THIS ARCTIC BOUNDARY. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH
JUST SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...
BUT THAT WILL SURELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED ONE WAY OR ANOTHER AS THE
MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS SITUATION IN FUTURE RUNS.

THE CR GRID LOAD MADE FOR AN OKAY START TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST
GRIDS WITH CHANGES MADE PRIMARILY TO BETTER REFLECT THE LATEST ECMWF
SOLUTION FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ALSO...MADE SOME TYPICAL RIDGE
AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FOR LOWS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

TONIGHT WILL BE TRICKY IN TERMS OF CIGS AS SITES HAVE BEEN AROUND OR
MVFR CEILINGS THUS FAR TONIGHT. THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW QUICKLY
TO WE SEE IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. RIGHT NOW HAVE
SITES GOING IFR BY 10 TO 11 Z BEFORE SITES IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION IS TRACKING OVER EASTERN KY THIS HOUR AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND
EVENTUALLY A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AS WE MOVE INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THIS WILL THEN TRANSITION TO MORE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AS WE
MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL ALSO USHER IN
STRONGER NW FLOW LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH GUSTY WINDS AROUND
20 KNOTS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THE DAY TODAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...DJ







000
FXUS63 KJKL 260843
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
343 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

WSR-88D THIS MORNING HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KY THIS MORNING. BEST COVERAGE HAS GENERALLY
BEEN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER THIS MORNING WE HAVE SEEN GENERALLY LOWER AMTS OF PRECIP AND
TEMPS ARE STILL ABOVE FREEZING AT MOST LOCATIONS BESIDE BLACK MTN AT
8Z. GIVEN THIS HAVE LESSEN POPS AND ALSO LESSENED QPF AMTS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS MAY STILL BE TOO OPTIMISTIC AS RETURNS FROM RADAR HAVE
BEEN QUITE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN KY THIS MORNING. THIS TREND
OF LOWERING REFLECTIVITIES IS ALSO BACK UP BY THE HRRR WHICH ALSO
INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL AT 7Z. OTHERWISE LEFT OVER SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY
TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS
THE FAR EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EXIT EAST WHERE
IT DEVELOPS INTO A STRONG NOREASTER ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD LATER
TODAY. ACROSS EASTERN KY WE WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION TO GENERALLY
WEST TO NW FLOW. MODELS DO SHOW A FETCH OF MOISTURE DROPPING SOUTH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW HAVE MOVED
TOWARD SLIGHT CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS SW PORTION OF THE
CWA WHERE BETTER PLACEMENT OF MOISTURE AXIS EXISTS. EVEN SO GENERALLY
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AREA
WIDE COUPLED WITH GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

A RATHER AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. MODELS
REMAIN IN GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH
DIFFERENCES INCREASING TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SATES AND OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US
COAST...WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM MEXICO NORTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ROCKIES. AT THE SFC THE A DEEP SFC LOW/BLIZZARD
WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE NORTHEAST US COAST TO START THE PERIOD WITH
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND MS VALLEY REGION. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IN NW FLOW
BETWEEN THE TWO WILL DROP FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND REINFORCE A COLD AIRMASS WITH 850 MB
TEMPS TO FALL TO THE -8C TO -10C RANGE BY LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND TUE
EVENING.

AS THE TROUGH AXIS LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND THE SFC LOW MOVES
FURTHER UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION AND APPALACHIANS TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGING WILL WANE BY LATE WED NIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH BEGIN TO JOIN FORCES AND APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES AND
MS VALLEY REGION AS WELL AS THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION. THE
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SHOULD TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE AREA JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FROM WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED MOISTURE...AND THIS SHOULD BE ANOTHER EVENT WHERE THE
ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS FROM THE TOP DOWN. AT THE ONSET...SOME SNOW
COULD MIX IN PENDING THE STRENGTH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. THE CLOUDS ALSO MAY NOT
THICKEN QUICK ENOUGH TO PREVENT AT LEAST A MINOR RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT
FOR THE VALLEYS ON WED EVENING. AT THIS POINT...A LOW IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S OCCURRING AROUND 6Z ON THU IS EXPECTED.

COLDER AIR WILL WRAP BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND
POSSIBLY CHANGE ANY PRECIP BACK TO SNOW AS IT DEPARTS. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD THEN BUILD IN TO BRING A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF
LOWERS HEIGHTS MORE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL AS THE
GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN SEABOARD AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AND IS
THUS MUCH COLDER WITH THE AIRMASS. ANY SHORTWAVES AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD SHOULD BE RATHER MOISTURE STARVED WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS
FAVORING ANYTHING THAT FALLS BEING SNOW. FOR TEMPS LATE IN THE
PERIOD...OPTED TO GO A TAD COLDER THAN THE CONSENSUS BLEND...MORE IN
LINE WITH ISC CONSENSUS AND GIVING A BIT MORE CREDIT TO THE PAST 2
ECMWF RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

TONIGHT WILL BE TRICKY IN TERMS OF CIGS AS SITES HAVE BEEN AROUND OR
MVFR CEILINGS THUS FAR TONIGHT. THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW QUICKLY
TO WE SEE IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. RIGHT NOW HAVE
SITES GOING IFR BY 10 TO 11 Z BEFORE SITES IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION IS TRACKING OVER EASTERN KY THIS HOUR AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND
EVENTUALLY A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AS WE MOVE INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THIS WILL THEN TRANSITION TO MORE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AS WE
MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL ALSO USHER IN
STRONGER NW FLOW LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH GUSTY WINDS AROUND
20 KNOTS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THE DAY TODAY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DJ







000
FXUS63 KJKL 260843
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
343 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

WSR-88D THIS MORNING HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KY THIS MORNING. BEST COVERAGE HAS GENERALLY
BEEN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER THIS MORNING WE HAVE SEEN GENERALLY LOWER AMTS OF PRECIP AND
TEMPS ARE STILL ABOVE FREEZING AT MOST LOCATIONS BESIDE BLACK MTN AT
8Z. GIVEN THIS HAVE LESSEN POPS AND ALSO LESSENED QPF AMTS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS MAY STILL BE TOO OPTIMISTIC AS RETURNS FROM RADAR HAVE
BEEN QUITE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN KY THIS MORNING. THIS TREND
OF LOWERING REFLECTIVITIES IS ALSO BACK UP BY THE HRRR WHICH ALSO
INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL AT 7Z. OTHERWISE LEFT OVER SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY
TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS
THE FAR EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EXIT EAST WHERE
IT DEVELOPS INTO A STRONG NOREASTER ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD LATER
TODAY. ACROSS EASTERN KY WE WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION TO GENERALLY
WEST TO NW FLOW. MODELS DO SHOW A FETCH OF MOISTURE DROPPING SOUTH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW HAVE MOVED
TOWARD SLIGHT CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS SW PORTION OF THE
CWA WHERE BETTER PLACEMENT OF MOISTURE AXIS EXISTS. EVEN SO GENERALLY
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AREA
WIDE COUPLED WITH GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

A RATHER AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. MODELS
REMAIN IN GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH
DIFFERENCES INCREASING TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SATES AND OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US
COAST...WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM MEXICO NORTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ROCKIES. AT THE SFC THE A DEEP SFC LOW/BLIZZARD
WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE NORTHEAST US COAST TO START THE PERIOD WITH
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND MS VALLEY REGION. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IN NW FLOW
BETWEEN THE TWO WILL DROP FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND REINFORCE A COLD AIRMASS WITH 850 MB
TEMPS TO FALL TO THE -8C TO -10C RANGE BY LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND TUE
EVENING.

AS THE TROUGH AXIS LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND THE SFC LOW MOVES
FURTHER UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION AND APPALACHIANS TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGING WILL WANE BY LATE WED NIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH BEGIN TO JOIN FORCES AND APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES AND
MS VALLEY REGION AS WELL AS THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION. THE
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SHOULD TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE AREA JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FROM WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED MOISTURE...AND THIS SHOULD BE ANOTHER EVENT WHERE THE
ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS FROM THE TOP DOWN. AT THE ONSET...SOME SNOW
COULD MIX IN PENDING THE STRENGTH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. THE CLOUDS ALSO MAY NOT
THICKEN QUICK ENOUGH TO PREVENT AT LEAST A MINOR RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT
FOR THE VALLEYS ON WED EVENING. AT THIS POINT...A LOW IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S OCCURRING AROUND 6Z ON THU IS EXPECTED.

COLDER AIR WILL WRAP BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND
POSSIBLY CHANGE ANY PRECIP BACK TO SNOW AS IT DEPARTS. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD THEN BUILD IN TO BRING A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF
LOWERS HEIGHTS MORE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL AS THE
GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN SEABOARD AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AND IS
THUS MUCH COLDER WITH THE AIRMASS. ANY SHORTWAVES AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD SHOULD BE RATHER MOISTURE STARVED WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS
FAVORING ANYTHING THAT FALLS BEING SNOW. FOR TEMPS LATE IN THE
PERIOD...OPTED TO GO A TAD COLDER THAN THE CONSENSUS BLEND...MORE IN
LINE WITH ISC CONSENSUS AND GIVING A BIT MORE CREDIT TO THE PAST 2
ECMWF RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

TONIGHT WILL BE TRICKY IN TERMS OF CIGS AS SITES HAVE BEEN AROUND OR
MVFR CEILINGS THUS FAR TONIGHT. THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW QUICKLY
TO WE SEE IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. RIGHT NOW HAVE
SITES GOING IFR BY 10 TO 11 Z BEFORE SITES IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION IS TRACKING OVER EASTERN KY THIS HOUR AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND
EVENTUALLY A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AS WE MOVE INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THIS WILL THEN TRANSITION TO MORE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AS WE
MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL ALSO USHER IN
STRONGER NW FLOW LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH GUSTY WINDS AROUND
20 KNOTS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THE DAY TODAY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DJ








000
FXUS63 KJKL 260644
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
144 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 143 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO FRESHEN GRIDS WITH OBS AND TRENDS. RIGHT NOW
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
MOST OF THIS IS IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH MOST SITES BESIDES BLACK MT
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S THIS HOUR. BEST COVERAGE OF RAIN THIS
HOUR IS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA WITH MORE SCATTERED
ACTIVITY AS YOU MOVE NORTH. TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING ACROSS FAR
WESTERN KY TONIGHT AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE THE TREND FROM NW TO SE
ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WSR-88D RADAR HOWEVER IS NOT
SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RETURNS TO OUR WEST WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
BAND OF PRECIP ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL KY THIS HOUR. THAT SAID
COMBINE THIS WITH HRRR THAT SHOWS A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND OF THE
PRECIP AS WE MOVE INTO THE MORNING WOULD SUGGEST LIGHTER AMTS AS WE
SWITCH TO SNOW IN THE DAWN HOUR. RIGHT NOW WILL ONLY MAKE MINOR
CHANGES AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR AND TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1137 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

GIVEN THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPERIENCED TODAY /SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE 50S/...WE JUST REALLY HAVEN/T SEEN A LARGE COOL DOWN
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KY THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING. THIS IS
ESPECIALLY TRUE IN AREAS THAT HAVE NOT YET RECEIVED RAIN...OR HAVE
ONLY RECEIVED A SMALL AMOUNT. THIS BEING SAID...OTHER THAN ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 3000 FT...DON/T EXPECT RAIN TO START CHANGING OVER QUITE AS FAST
AS WHAT WAS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WORKED TO ADJUST THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FOR OVERNIGHT...BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND
SOUNDINGS...AS WELL AS BASED ON THE ONGOING CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES AND COOLING DOWNSTREAM...PREVIOUS SNOW PACK...ETC.
WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE CURRENT FORECAST...THE LATEST HRRR /WHICH
SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST INITIALIZATION FOR THIS SYSTEM/...AND A LITTLE
INFLUENCE FROM THE GFS...WHICH TRENDED CLOSER TO OVERALL THINKING FOR
THE LOW. THEN...ADJUSTED INDIVIDUAL LOCATIONS TO GET THEM WITHIN
BETTER TOLERANCE...INCLUDING BUMPING UP BLACK MOUNTAIN TO 29 DEGREES
AND OTHER TERRAIN ABOVE 2500 FEET TO BETWEEN 30 AND 32 DEGREES.
FURTHER MORE...GIVEN THE SLOW PROGRESS OF TEMPERATURES FALLING...WENT
AHEAD AND PUSHED BACK THE TIMING OF THE LOW TEMPERATURE TO 13Z
MONDAY. FROM HERE...USED A MIXTURE OF THE CONS-SHORT AND HAND EDITING
TO ADJUST THE DIURNAL CURVE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...THE SLIGHT UPTICK IN TEMPERATURE FORECAST
WILL RESULT IN A SEVERAL HOUR DIFFERENCE IN THE RAIN CHANGING OVER TO
SNOW. THIS WILL KEEP ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OUT OF THE FORECAST
THROUGH 12Z /WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BLACK MOUNTAIN/...AND LESS SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN FOR DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. BLACK MOUNTAIN IS
CURRENTLY AT 32 DEGREES...SO THEY MAY START TO MIX WITH SNOW AT ANY
TIME. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE REST OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY NOT SEE
SNOW MIXING IN UNTIL NEAR DAWN...THEN SLOWLY TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW
BETWEEN NOON AND 3PM. BY THIS POINT...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A
STRONG AMOUNT OF DRY AIR CUTTING OFF SOME OF THE BEST ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL...SNOW TOTALS WERE LOWERED
ACROSS THE CWA. EXPECT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FEET TO PICK UP THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS...BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES. SOME OF THE OTHER RIDGES
ACROSS THE AREA COULD SEE BETWEEN A HALF AN ONE INCH...BUT A MAJORITY
OF THE CWA WILL ONLY PICK UP A HALF INCH OR LESS. MOST OF THIS IS
STILL EXPECTED TO FALL BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z WHEN THE BEST LIFT AND
MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES COMBINE...AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES FINALLY
FALL ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 706 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

FRESHENED UP THE GRIDS WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR
TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS. THIS RESULTED IN LITTLE OVERALL
CHANGE FROM THE ONGOING FORECAST. BASED ON THE CURRENT RADAR
RETURNS...AND THE PWAT VALUES OVERNIGHT BEING AROUND A HALF INCH OR
LESS...WENT AHEAD AND REDUCED ANY MENTION OF MODERATE
RAINFALL/SNOWFALL TO LIGHT. JUST NOT SEEING A WHOLE LOT OF EVIDENCE
AT THIS POINT FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY INTENSITIES...THOUGH SNOW COULD
HAVE SOME HEAVIER SPOTS AT TIMES TOMORROW MORNING. LATEST NAM12
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REALLY START TO LOSE MOISTURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS
BETWEEN 6 AND 9 Z...WITH NOT MUCH LIFT EITHER...ALSO SUPPORTING
LIGHTER INTENSITIES. OTHERWISE...FORECAST SEEMS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD
SHAPE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE CENTER OF THE LOW IS CURRENTLY
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KY AND MOVING OUR DIRECTION...WITH THE NEXT ROUND
OF LIGHT RAIN ABOUT TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS AS OF 20Z ACROSS THE REGION FEATURES A SMALL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER MIDWEST TRACKING EAST INTO THE OH
VALLEY THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS...SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEGUN
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP BACK
WEST INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA. PLENTY OF SOUTHWEST
FLOW TODAY AND WAA INTO THE AREA HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPS TO RISE INTO
THE UPPER 40S AND EVEN LOWER 50S ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY.
MODELS SHOWING THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT AFTER 00Z
WILL HAVE THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN LATER. THIS ADVECTION WILL BEGIN
IN EARNEST JUST AFTER 06Z AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. EXPECTING A
CHANGE OVER IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH ALREADY TEMPS AT BLACK
MOUNTAIN REACHING ITS HIGH FOR THE DAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND IS NOW
BEGINNING TO DROP OFF AT THIS HOUR. MODEL PROFILES SHOW A BRIEF
PERIOD OF GOOD OMEGA THROUGH THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THE EVENT AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WITH COLD ENOUGH AIR MOVING IN...THERE COULD BE
SOME QUICK BURSTS OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EVEN IN THE
VALLEYS WHERE COLDER AIR HAS FINALLY MOVED IN. SPEAKING OF
TEMPERATURES...LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY...TEMPS WILL
BE FALLING INTO THE MORNING HOURS BUT SOME SLIGHT RADIATIONAL HEATING
DURING THE DAY BEFORE THE CORE OF THE AIR MASS MOVES IN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN TEMPS RISING A DEGREE
OR TWO OR HOLDING STEADY THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. TEMPS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY.

WINDS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY MORNING WILL THEN SWITCH AROUND TO
THE NORTHWEST FOR A FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE DEPTH HANGS AROUND THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME DECENT LIFT REMAINING
ACCORDING TO THE NAM AND GFS SO SOME DECENT SNOW SHOWERS WILL HANG
AROUND THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES FROM
WEST TO EAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE CORE OF THE AIR MASS MOVING IN
WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO PLUMMET INTO THE MID 20S MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY ADD TO THE THREAT OF HAZARDOUS AND SLICK ROADS.
THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

A RATHER AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. MODELS
REMAIN IN GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH
DIFFERENCES INCREASING TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SATES AND OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US
COAST...WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM MEXICO NORTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ROCKIES. AT THE SFC THE A DEEP SFC LOW/BLIZZARD
WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE NORTHEAST US COAST TO START THE PERIOD WITH
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND MS VALLEY REGION. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IN NW FLOW
BETWEEN THE TWO WILL DROP FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND REINFORCE A COLD AIRMASS WITH 850 MB
TEMPS TO FALL TO THE -8C TO -10C RANGE BY LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND TUE
EVENING.

AS THE TROUGH AXIS LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND THE SFC LOW MOVES
FURTHER UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION AND APPALACHIANS TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGING WILL WANE BY LATE WED NIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH BEGIN TO JOIN FORCES AND APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES AND
MS VALLEY REGION AS WELL AS THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION. THE
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SHOULD TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE AREA JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FROM WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED MOISTURE...AND THIS SHOULD BE ANOTHER EVENT WHERE THE
ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS FROM THE TOP DOWN. AT THE ONSET...SOME SNOW
COULD MIX IN PENDING THE STRENGTH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. THE CLOUDS ALSO MAY NOT
THICKEN QUICK ENOUGH TO PREVENT AT LEAST A MINOR RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT
FOR THE VALLEYS ON WED EVENING. AT THIS POINT...A LOW IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S OCCURRING AROUND 6Z ON THU IS EXPECTED.

COLDER AIR WILL WRAP BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND
POSSIBLY CHANGE ANY PRECIP BACK TO SNOW AS IT DEPARTS. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD THEN BUILD IN TO BRING A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF
LOWERS HEIGHTS MORE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL AS THE
GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN SEABOARD AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AND IS
THUS MUCH COLDER WITH THE AIRMASS. ANY SHORTWAVES AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD SHOULD BE RATHER MOISTURE STARVED WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS
FAVORING ANYTHING THAT FALLS BEING SNOW. FOR TEMPS LATE IN THE
PERIOD...OPTED TO GO A TAD COLDER THAN THE CONSENSUS BLEND...MORE IN
LINE WITH ISC CONSENSUS AND GIVING A BIT MORE CREDIT TO THE PAST 2
ECMWF RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

TONIGHT WILL BE TRICKY IN TERMS OF CIGS AS SITES HAVE BEEN AROUND OR
MVFR CEILINGS THUS FAR TONIGHT. THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW QUICKLY
TO WE SEE IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. RIGHT NOW HAVE
SITES GOING IFR BY 10 TO 11 Z BEFORE SITES IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION IS TRACKING OVER EASTERN KY THIS HOUR AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND
EVENTUALLY A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AS WE MOVE INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THIS WILL THEN TRANSITION TO MORE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AS WE
MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL ALSO USHER IN
STRONGER NW FLOW LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH GUSTY WINDS AROUND
20 KNOTS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THE DAY TODAY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DJ







000
FXUS63 KJKL 260644
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
144 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 143 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO FRESHEN GRIDS WITH OBS AND TRENDS. RIGHT NOW
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
MOST OF THIS IS IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH MOST SITES BESIDES BLACK MT
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S THIS HOUR. BEST COVERAGE OF RAIN THIS
HOUR IS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA WITH MORE SCATTERED
ACTIVITY AS YOU MOVE NORTH. TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING ACROSS FAR
WESTERN KY TONIGHT AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE THE TREND FROM NW TO SE
ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WSR-88D RADAR HOWEVER IS NOT
SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RETURNS TO OUR WEST WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
BAND OF PRECIP ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL KY THIS HOUR. THAT SAID
COMBINE THIS WITH HRRR THAT SHOWS A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND OF THE
PRECIP AS WE MOVE INTO THE MORNING WOULD SUGGEST LIGHTER AMTS AS WE
SWITCH TO SNOW IN THE DAWN HOUR. RIGHT NOW WILL ONLY MAKE MINOR
CHANGES AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR AND TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1137 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

GIVEN THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPERIENCED TODAY /SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE 50S/...WE JUST REALLY HAVEN/T SEEN A LARGE COOL DOWN
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KY THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING. THIS IS
ESPECIALLY TRUE IN AREAS THAT HAVE NOT YET RECEIVED RAIN...OR HAVE
ONLY RECEIVED A SMALL AMOUNT. THIS BEING SAID...OTHER THAN ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 3000 FT...DON/T EXPECT RAIN TO START CHANGING OVER QUITE AS FAST
AS WHAT WAS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WORKED TO ADJUST THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FOR OVERNIGHT...BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND
SOUNDINGS...AS WELL AS BASED ON THE ONGOING CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES AND COOLING DOWNSTREAM...PREVIOUS SNOW PACK...ETC.
WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE CURRENT FORECAST...THE LATEST HRRR /WHICH
SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST INITIALIZATION FOR THIS SYSTEM/...AND A LITTLE
INFLUENCE FROM THE GFS...WHICH TRENDED CLOSER TO OVERALL THINKING FOR
THE LOW. THEN...ADJUSTED INDIVIDUAL LOCATIONS TO GET THEM WITHIN
BETTER TOLERANCE...INCLUDING BUMPING UP BLACK MOUNTAIN TO 29 DEGREES
AND OTHER TERRAIN ABOVE 2500 FEET TO BETWEEN 30 AND 32 DEGREES.
FURTHER MORE...GIVEN THE SLOW PROGRESS OF TEMPERATURES FALLING...WENT
AHEAD AND PUSHED BACK THE TIMING OF THE LOW TEMPERATURE TO 13Z
MONDAY. FROM HERE...USED A MIXTURE OF THE CONS-SHORT AND HAND EDITING
TO ADJUST THE DIURNAL CURVE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...THE SLIGHT UPTICK IN TEMPERATURE FORECAST
WILL RESULT IN A SEVERAL HOUR DIFFERENCE IN THE RAIN CHANGING OVER TO
SNOW. THIS WILL KEEP ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OUT OF THE FORECAST
THROUGH 12Z /WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BLACK MOUNTAIN/...AND LESS SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN FOR DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. BLACK MOUNTAIN IS
CURRENTLY AT 32 DEGREES...SO THEY MAY START TO MIX WITH SNOW AT ANY
TIME. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE REST OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY NOT SEE
SNOW MIXING IN UNTIL NEAR DAWN...THEN SLOWLY TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW
BETWEEN NOON AND 3PM. BY THIS POINT...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A
STRONG AMOUNT OF DRY AIR CUTTING OFF SOME OF THE BEST ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL...SNOW TOTALS WERE LOWERED
ACROSS THE CWA. EXPECT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FEET TO PICK UP THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS...BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES. SOME OF THE OTHER RIDGES
ACROSS THE AREA COULD SEE BETWEEN A HALF AN ONE INCH...BUT A MAJORITY
OF THE CWA WILL ONLY PICK UP A HALF INCH OR LESS. MOST OF THIS IS
STILL EXPECTED TO FALL BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z WHEN THE BEST LIFT AND
MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES COMBINE...AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES FINALLY
FALL ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 706 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

FRESHENED UP THE GRIDS WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR
TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS. THIS RESULTED IN LITTLE OVERALL
CHANGE FROM THE ONGOING FORECAST. BASED ON THE CURRENT RADAR
RETURNS...AND THE PWAT VALUES OVERNIGHT BEING AROUND A HALF INCH OR
LESS...WENT AHEAD AND REDUCED ANY MENTION OF MODERATE
RAINFALL/SNOWFALL TO LIGHT. JUST NOT SEEING A WHOLE LOT OF EVIDENCE
AT THIS POINT FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY INTENSITIES...THOUGH SNOW COULD
HAVE SOME HEAVIER SPOTS AT TIMES TOMORROW MORNING. LATEST NAM12
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REALLY START TO LOSE MOISTURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS
BETWEEN 6 AND 9 Z...WITH NOT MUCH LIFT EITHER...ALSO SUPPORTING
LIGHTER INTENSITIES. OTHERWISE...FORECAST SEEMS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD
SHAPE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE CENTER OF THE LOW IS CURRENTLY
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KY AND MOVING OUR DIRECTION...WITH THE NEXT ROUND
OF LIGHT RAIN ABOUT TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS AS OF 20Z ACROSS THE REGION FEATURES A SMALL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER MIDWEST TRACKING EAST INTO THE OH
VALLEY THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS...SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEGUN
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP BACK
WEST INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA. PLENTY OF SOUTHWEST
FLOW TODAY AND WAA INTO THE AREA HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPS TO RISE INTO
THE UPPER 40S AND EVEN LOWER 50S ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY.
MODELS SHOWING THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT AFTER 00Z
WILL HAVE THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN LATER. THIS ADVECTION WILL BEGIN
IN EARNEST JUST AFTER 06Z AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. EXPECTING A
CHANGE OVER IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH ALREADY TEMPS AT BLACK
MOUNTAIN REACHING ITS HIGH FOR THE DAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND IS NOW
BEGINNING TO DROP OFF AT THIS HOUR. MODEL PROFILES SHOW A BRIEF
PERIOD OF GOOD OMEGA THROUGH THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THE EVENT AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WITH COLD ENOUGH AIR MOVING IN...THERE COULD BE
SOME QUICK BURSTS OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EVEN IN THE
VALLEYS WHERE COLDER AIR HAS FINALLY MOVED IN. SPEAKING OF
TEMPERATURES...LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY...TEMPS WILL
BE FALLING INTO THE MORNING HOURS BUT SOME SLIGHT RADIATIONAL HEATING
DURING THE DAY BEFORE THE CORE OF THE AIR MASS MOVES IN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN TEMPS RISING A DEGREE
OR TWO OR HOLDING STEADY THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. TEMPS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY.

WINDS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY MORNING WILL THEN SWITCH AROUND TO
THE NORTHWEST FOR A FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE DEPTH HANGS AROUND THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME DECENT LIFT REMAINING
ACCORDING TO THE NAM AND GFS SO SOME DECENT SNOW SHOWERS WILL HANG
AROUND THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES FROM
WEST TO EAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE CORE OF THE AIR MASS MOVING IN
WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO PLUMMET INTO THE MID 20S MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY ADD TO THE THREAT OF HAZARDOUS AND SLICK ROADS.
THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

A RATHER AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. MODELS
REMAIN IN GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH
DIFFERENCES INCREASING TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SATES AND OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US
COAST...WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM MEXICO NORTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ROCKIES. AT THE SFC THE A DEEP SFC LOW/BLIZZARD
WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE NORTHEAST US COAST TO START THE PERIOD WITH
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND MS VALLEY REGION. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IN NW FLOW
BETWEEN THE TWO WILL DROP FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND REINFORCE A COLD AIRMASS WITH 850 MB
TEMPS TO FALL TO THE -8C TO -10C RANGE BY LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND TUE
EVENING.

AS THE TROUGH AXIS LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND THE SFC LOW MOVES
FURTHER UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION AND APPALACHIANS TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGING WILL WANE BY LATE WED NIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH BEGIN TO JOIN FORCES AND APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES AND
MS VALLEY REGION AS WELL AS THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION. THE
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SHOULD TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE AREA JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FROM WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED MOISTURE...AND THIS SHOULD BE ANOTHER EVENT WHERE THE
ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS FROM THE TOP DOWN. AT THE ONSET...SOME SNOW
COULD MIX IN PENDING THE STRENGTH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. THE CLOUDS ALSO MAY NOT
THICKEN QUICK ENOUGH TO PREVENT AT LEAST A MINOR RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT
FOR THE VALLEYS ON WED EVENING. AT THIS POINT...A LOW IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S OCCURRING AROUND 6Z ON THU IS EXPECTED.

COLDER AIR WILL WRAP BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND
POSSIBLY CHANGE ANY PRECIP BACK TO SNOW AS IT DEPARTS. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD THEN BUILD IN TO BRING A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF
LOWERS HEIGHTS MORE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL AS THE
GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN SEABOARD AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AND IS
THUS MUCH COLDER WITH THE AIRMASS. ANY SHORTWAVES AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD SHOULD BE RATHER MOISTURE STARVED WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS
FAVORING ANYTHING THAT FALLS BEING SNOW. FOR TEMPS LATE IN THE
PERIOD...OPTED TO GO A TAD COLDER THAN THE CONSENSUS BLEND...MORE IN
LINE WITH ISC CONSENSUS AND GIVING A BIT MORE CREDIT TO THE PAST 2
ECMWF RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

TONIGHT WILL BE TRICKY IN TERMS OF CIGS AS SITES HAVE BEEN AROUND OR
MVFR CEILINGS THUS FAR TONIGHT. THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW QUICKLY
TO WE SEE IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. RIGHT NOW HAVE
SITES GOING IFR BY 10 TO 11 Z BEFORE SITES IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION IS TRACKING OVER EASTERN KY THIS HOUR AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND
EVENTUALLY A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AS WE MOVE INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THIS WILL THEN TRANSITION TO MORE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AS WE
MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL ALSO USHER IN
STRONGER NW FLOW LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH GUSTY WINDS AROUND
20 KNOTS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THE DAY TODAY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DJ








000
FXUS63 KJKL 260554
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1254 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1137 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

GIVEN THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPERIENCED TODAY /SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE 50S/...WE JUST REALLY HAVEN/T SEEN A LARGE COOL DOWN
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KY THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING. THIS IS
ESPECIALLY TRUE IN AREAS THAT HAVE NOT YET RECEIVED RAIN...OR HAVE
ONLY RECEIVED A SMALL AMOUNT. THIS BEING SAID...OTHER THAN ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 3000 FT...DON/T EXPECT RAIN TO START CHANGING OVER QUITE AS FAST
AS WHAT WAS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WORKED TO ADJUST THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FOR OVERNIGHT...BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND
SOUNDINGS...AS WELL AS BASED ON THE ONGOING CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES AND COOLING DOWNSTREAM...PREVIOUS SNOW PACK...ETC.
WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE CURRENT FORECAST...THE LATEST HRRR /WHICH
SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST INITIALIZATION FOR THIS SYSTEM/...AND A LITTLE
INFLUENCE FROM THE GFS...WHICH TRENDED CLOSER TO OVERALL THINKING FOR
THE LOW. THEN...ADJUSTED INDIVIDUAL LOCATIONS TO GET THEM WITHIN
BETTER TOLERANCE...INCLUDING BUMPING UP BLACK MOUNTAIN TO 29 DEGREES
AND OTHER TERRAIN ABOVE 2500 FEET TO BETWEEN 30 AND 32 DEGREES.
FURTHER MORE...GIVEN THE SLOW PROGRESS OF TEMPERATURES FALLING...WENT
AHEAD AND PUSHED BACK THE TIMING OF THE LOW TEMPERATURE TO 13Z
MONDAY. FROM HERE...USED A MIXTURE OF THE CONS-SHORT AND HAND EDITING
TO ADJUST THE DIURNAL CURVE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...THE SLIGHT UPTICK IN TEMPERATURE FORECAST
WILL RESULT IN A SEVERAL HOUR DIFFERENCE IN THE RAIN CHANGING OVER TO
SNOW. THIS WILL KEEP ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OUT OF THE FORECAST
THROUGH 12Z /WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BLACK MOUNTAIN/...AND LESS SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN FOR DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. BLACK MOUNTAIN IS
CURRENTLY AT 32 DEGREES...SO THEY MAY START TO MIX WITH SNOW AT ANY
TIME. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE REST OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY NOT SEE
SNOW MIXING IN UNTIL NEAR DAWN...THEN SLOWLY TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW
BETWEEN NOON AND 3PM. BY THIS POINT...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A
STRONG AMOUNT OF DRY AIR CUTTING OFF SOME OF THE BEST ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL...SNOW TOTALS WERE LOWERED
ACROSS THE CWA. EXPECT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FEET TO PICK UP THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS...BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES. SOME OF THE OTHER RIDGES
ACROSS THE AREA COULD SEE BETWEEN A HALF AN ONE INCH...BUT A MAJORITY
OF THE CWA WILL ONLY PICK UP A HALF INCH OR LESS. MOST OF THIS IS
STILL EXPECTED TO FALL BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z WHEN THE BEST LIFT AND
MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES COMBINE...AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES FINALLY
FALL ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 706 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

FRESHENED UP THE GRIDS WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR
TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS. THIS RESULTED IN LITTLE OVERALL
CHANGE FROM THE ONGOING FORECAST. BASED ON THE CURRENT RADAR
RETURNS...AND THE PWAT VALUES OVERNIGHT BEING AROUND A HALF INCH OR
LESS...WENT AHEAD AND REDUCED ANY MENTION OF MODERATE
RAINFALL/SNOWFALL TO LIGHT. JUST NOT SEEING A WHOLE LOT OF EVIDENCE
AT THIS POINT FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY INTENSITIES...THOUGH SNOW COULD
HAVE SOME HEAVIER SPOTS AT TIMES TOMORROW MORNING. LATEST NAM12
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REALLY START TO LOSE MOISTURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS
BETWEEN 6 AND 9 Z...WITH NOT MUCH LIFT EITHER...ALSO SUPPORTING
LIGHTER INTENSITIES. OTHERWISE...FORECAST SEEMS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD
SHAPE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE CENTER OF THE LOW IS CURRENTLY
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KY AND MOVING OUR DIRECTION...WITH THE NEXT ROUND
OF LIGHT RAIN ABOUT TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS AS OF 20Z ACROSS THE REGION FEATURES A SMALL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER MIDWEST TRACKING EAST INTO THE OH
VALLEY THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS...SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEGUN
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP BACK
WEST INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA. PLENTY OF SOUTHWEST
FLOW TODAY AND WAA INTO THE AREA HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPS TO RISE INTO
THE UPPER 40S AND EVEN LOWER 50S ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY.
MODELS SHOWING THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT AFTER 00Z
WILL HAVE THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN LATER. THIS ADVECTION WILL BEGIN
IN EARNEST JUST AFTER 06Z AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. EXPECTING A
CHANGE OVER IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH ALREADY TEMPS AT BLACK
MOUNTAIN REACHING ITS HIGH FOR THE DAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND IS NOW
BEGINNING TO DROP OFF AT THIS HOUR. MODEL PROFILES SHOW A BRIEF
PERIOD OF GOOD OMEGA THROUGH THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THE EVENT AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WITH COLD ENOUGH AIR MOVING IN...THERE COULD BE
SOME QUICK BURSTS OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EVEN IN THE
VALLEYS WHERE COLDER AIR HAS FINALLY MOVED IN. SPEAKING OF
TEMPERATURES...LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY...TEMPS WILL
BE FALLING INTO THE MORNING HOURS BUT SOME SLIGHT RADIATIONAL HEATING
DURING THE DAY BEFORE THE CORE OF THE AIR MASS MOVES IN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN TEMPS RISING A DEGREE
OR TWO OR HOLDING STEADY THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. TEMPS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY.

WINDS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY MORNING WILL THEN SWITCH AROUND TO
THE NORTHWEST FOR A FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE DEPTH HANGS AROUND THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME DECENT LIFT REMAINING
ACCORDING TO THE NAM AND GFS SO SOME DECENT SNOW SHOWERS WILL HANG
AROUND THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES FROM
WEST TO EAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE CORE OF THE AIR MASS MOVING IN
WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO PLUMMET INTO THE MID 20S MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY ADD TO THE THREAT OF HAZARDOUS AND SLICK ROADS.
THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

A RATHER AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. MODELS
REMAIN IN GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH
DIFFERENCES INCREASING TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SATES AND OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US
COAST...WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM MEXICO NORTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ROCKIES. AT THE SFC THE A DEEP SFC LOW/BLIZZARD
WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE NORTHEAST US COAST TO START THE PERIOD WITH
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND MS VALLEY REGION. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IN NW FLOW
BETWEEN THE TWO WILL DROP FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND REINFORCE A COLD AIRMASS WITH 850 MB
TEMPS TO FALL TO THE -8C TO -10C RANGE BY LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND TUE
EVENING.

AS THE TROUGH AXIS LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND THE SFC LOW MOVES
FURTHER UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION AND APPALACHIANS TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGING WILL WANE BY LATE WED NIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH BEGIN TO JOIN FORCES AND APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES AND
MS VALLEY REGION AS WELL AS THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION. THE
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SHOULD TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE AREA JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FROM WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED MOISTURE...AND THIS SHOULD BE ANOTHER EVENT WHERE THE
ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS FROM THE TOP DOWN. AT THE ONSET...SOME SNOW
COULD MIX IN PENDING THE STRENGTH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. THE CLOUDS ALSO MAY NOT
THICKEN QUICK ENOUGH TO PREVENT AT LEAST A MINOR RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT
FOR THE VALLEYS ON WED EVENING. AT THIS POINT...A LOW IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S OCCURRING AROUND 6Z ON THU IS EXPECTED.

COLDER AIR WILL WRAP BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND
POSSIBLY CHANGE ANY PRECIP BACK TO SNOW AS IT DEPARTS. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD THEN BUILD IN TO BRING A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF
LOWERS HEIGHTS MORE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL AS THE
GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN SEABOARD AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AND IS
THUS MUCH COLDER WITH THE AIRMASS. ANY SHORTWAVES AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD SHOULD BE RATHER MOISTURE STARVED WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS
FAVORING ANYTHING THAT FALLS BEING SNOW. FOR TEMPS LATE IN THE
PERIOD...OPTED TO GO A TAD COLDER THAN THE CONSENSUS BLEND...MORE IN
LINE WITH ISC CONSENSUS AND GIVING A BIT MORE CREDIT TO THE PAST 2
ECMWF RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

TONIGHT WILL BE TRICKY IN TERMS OF CIGS AS SITES HAVE BEEN AROUND OR
MVFR CEILINGS THUS FAR TONIGHT. THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW QUICKLY
TO WE SEE IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. RIGHT NOW HAVE
SITES GOING IFR BY 10 TO 11 Z BEFORE SITES IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION IS TRACKING OVER EASTERN KY THIS HOUR AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND
EVENTUALLY A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AS WE MOVE INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THIS WILL THEN TRANSITION TO MORE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AS WE
MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL ALSO USHER IN
STRONGER NW FLOW LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH GUSTY WINDS AROUND
20 KNOTS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THE DAY TODAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DJ







000
FXUS63 KJKL 260554
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1254 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1137 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

GIVEN THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPERIENCED TODAY /SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE 50S/...WE JUST REALLY HAVEN/T SEEN A LARGE COOL DOWN
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KY THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING. THIS IS
ESPECIALLY TRUE IN AREAS THAT HAVE NOT YET RECEIVED RAIN...OR HAVE
ONLY RECEIVED A SMALL AMOUNT. THIS BEING SAID...OTHER THAN ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 3000 FT...DON/T EXPECT RAIN TO START CHANGING OVER QUITE AS FAST
AS WHAT WAS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WORKED TO ADJUST THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FOR OVERNIGHT...BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND
SOUNDINGS...AS WELL AS BASED ON THE ONGOING CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES AND COOLING DOWNSTREAM...PREVIOUS SNOW PACK...ETC.
WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE CURRENT FORECAST...THE LATEST HRRR /WHICH
SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST INITIALIZATION FOR THIS SYSTEM/...AND A LITTLE
INFLUENCE FROM THE GFS...WHICH TRENDED CLOSER TO OVERALL THINKING FOR
THE LOW. THEN...ADJUSTED INDIVIDUAL LOCATIONS TO GET THEM WITHIN
BETTER TOLERANCE...INCLUDING BUMPING UP BLACK MOUNTAIN TO 29 DEGREES
AND OTHER TERRAIN ABOVE 2500 FEET TO BETWEEN 30 AND 32 DEGREES.
FURTHER MORE...GIVEN THE SLOW PROGRESS OF TEMPERATURES FALLING...WENT
AHEAD AND PUSHED BACK THE TIMING OF THE LOW TEMPERATURE TO 13Z
MONDAY. FROM HERE...USED A MIXTURE OF THE CONS-SHORT AND HAND EDITING
TO ADJUST THE DIURNAL CURVE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...THE SLIGHT UPTICK IN TEMPERATURE FORECAST
WILL RESULT IN A SEVERAL HOUR DIFFERENCE IN THE RAIN CHANGING OVER TO
SNOW. THIS WILL KEEP ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OUT OF THE FORECAST
THROUGH 12Z /WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BLACK MOUNTAIN/...AND LESS SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN FOR DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. BLACK MOUNTAIN IS
CURRENTLY AT 32 DEGREES...SO THEY MAY START TO MIX WITH SNOW AT ANY
TIME. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE REST OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY NOT SEE
SNOW MIXING IN UNTIL NEAR DAWN...THEN SLOWLY TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW
BETWEEN NOON AND 3PM. BY THIS POINT...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A
STRONG AMOUNT OF DRY AIR CUTTING OFF SOME OF THE BEST ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL...SNOW TOTALS WERE LOWERED
ACROSS THE CWA. EXPECT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FEET TO PICK UP THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS...BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES. SOME OF THE OTHER RIDGES
ACROSS THE AREA COULD SEE BETWEEN A HALF AN ONE INCH...BUT A MAJORITY
OF THE CWA WILL ONLY PICK UP A HALF INCH OR LESS. MOST OF THIS IS
STILL EXPECTED TO FALL BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z WHEN THE BEST LIFT AND
MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES COMBINE...AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES FINALLY
FALL ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 706 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

FRESHENED UP THE GRIDS WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR
TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS. THIS RESULTED IN LITTLE OVERALL
CHANGE FROM THE ONGOING FORECAST. BASED ON THE CURRENT RADAR
RETURNS...AND THE PWAT VALUES OVERNIGHT BEING AROUND A HALF INCH OR
LESS...WENT AHEAD AND REDUCED ANY MENTION OF MODERATE
RAINFALL/SNOWFALL TO LIGHT. JUST NOT SEEING A WHOLE LOT OF EVIDENCE
AT THIS POINT FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY INTENSITIES...THOUGH SNOW COULD
HAVE SOME HEAVIER SPOTS AT TIMES TOMORROW MORNING. LATEST NAM12
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REALLY START TO LOSE MOISTURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS
BETWEEN 6 AND 9 Z...WITH NOT MUCH LIFT EITHER...ALSO SUPPORTING
LIGHTER INTENSITIES. OTHERWISE...FORECAST SEEMS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD
SHAPE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE CENTER OF THE LOW IS CURRENTLY
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KY AND MOVING OUR DIRECTION...WITH THE NEXT ROUND
OF LIGHT RAIN ABOUT TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS AS OF 20Z ACROSS THE REGION FEATURES A SMALL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER MIDWEST TRACKING EAST INTO THE OH
VALLEY THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS...SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEGUN
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP BACK
WEST INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA. PLENTY OF SOUTHWEST
FLOW TODAY AND WAA INTO THE AREA HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPS TO RISE INTO
THE UPPER 40S AND EVEN LOWER 50S ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY.
MODELS SHOWING THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT AFTER 00Z
WILL HAVE THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN LATER. THIS ADVECTION WILL BEGIN
IN EARNEST JUST AFTER 06Z AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. EXPECTING A
CHANGE OVER IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH ALREADY TEMPS AT BLACK
MOUNTAIN REACHING ITS HIGH FOR THE DAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND IS NOW
BEGINNING TO DROP OFF AT THIS HOUR. MODEL PROFILES SHOW A BRIEF
PERIOD OF GOOD OMEGA THROUGH THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THE EVENT AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WITH COLD ENOUGH AIR MOVING IN...THERE COULD BE
SOME QUICK BURSTS OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EVEN IN THE
VALLEYS WHERE COLDER AIR HAS FINALLY MOVED IN. SPEAKING OF
TEMPERATURES...LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY...TEMPS WILL
BE FALLING INTO THE MORNING HOURS BUT SOME SLIGHT RADIATIONAL HEATING
DURING THE DAY BEFORE THE CORE OF THE AIR MASS MOVES IN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN TEMPS RISING A DEGREE
OR TWO OR HOLDING STEADY THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. TEMPS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY.

WINDS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY MORNING WILL THEN SWITCH AROUND TO
THE NORTHWEST FOR A FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE DEPTH HANGS AROUND THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME DECENT LIFT REMAINING
ACCORDING TO THE NAM AND GFS SO SOME DECENT SNOW SHOWERS WILL HANG
AROUND THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES FROM
WEST TO EAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE CORE OF THE AIR MASS MOVING IN
WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO PLUMMET INTO THE MID 20S MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY ADD TO THE THREAT OF HAZARDOUS AND SLICK ROADS.
THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

A RATHER AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. MODELS
REMAIN IN GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH
DIFFERENCES INCREASING TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SATES AND OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US
COAST...WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM MEXICO NORTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ROCKIES. AT THE SFC THE A DEEP SFC LOW/BLIZZARD
WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE NORTHEAST US COAST TO START THE PERIOD WITH
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND MS VALLEY REGION. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IN NW FLOW
BETWEEN THE TWO WILL DROP FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND REINFORCE A COLD AIRMASS WITH 850 MB
TEMPS TO FALL TO THE -8C TO -10C RANGE BY LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND TUE
EVENING.

AS THE TROUGH AXIS LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND THE SFC LOW MOVES
FURTHER UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION AND APPALACHIANS TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGING WILL WANE BY LATE WED NIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH BEGIN TO JOIN FORCES AND APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES AND
MS VALLEY REGION AS WELL AS THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION. THE
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SHOULD TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE AREA JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FROM WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED MOISTURE...AND THIS SHOULD BE ANOTHER EVENT WHERE THE
ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS FROM THE TOP DOWN. AT THE ONSET...SOME SNOW
COULD MIX IN PENDING THE STRENGTH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. THE CLOUDS ALSO MAY NOT
THICKEN QUICK ENOUGH TO PREVENT AT LEAST A MINOR RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT
FOR THE VALLEYS ON WED EVENING. AT THIS POINT...A LOW IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S OCCURRING AROUND 6Z ON THU IS EXPECTED.

COLDER AIR WILL WRAP BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND
POSSIBLY CHANGE ANY PRECIP BACK TO SNOW AS IT DEPARTS. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD THEN BUILD IN TO BRING A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF
LOWERS HEIGHTS MORE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL AS THE
GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN SEABOARD AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AND IS
THUS MUCH COLDER WITH THE AIRMASS. ANY SHORTWAVES AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD SHOULD BE RATHER MOISTURE STARVED WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS
FAVORING ANYTHING THAT FALLS BEING SNOW. FOR TEMPS LATE IN THE
PERIOD...OPTED TO GO A TAD COLDER THAN THE CONSENSUS BLEND...MORE IN
LINE WITH ISC CONSENSUS AND GIVING A BIT MORE CREDIT TO THE PAST 2
ECMWF RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

TONIGHT WILL BE TRICKY IN TERMS OF CIGS AS SITES HAVE BEEN AROUND OR
MVFR CEILINGS THUS FAR TONIGHT. THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW QUICKLY
TO WE SEE IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. RIGHT NOW HAVE
SITES GOING IFR BY 10 TO 11 Z BEFORE SITES IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION IS TRACKING OVER EASTERN KY THIS HOUR AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND
EVENTUALLY A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AS WE MOVE INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THIS WILL THEN TRANSITION TO MORE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AS WE
MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL ALSO USHER IN
STRONGER NW FLOW LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH GUSTY WINDS AROUND
20 KNOTS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THE DAY TODAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DJ








000
FXUS63 KJKL 260441
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1141 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1137 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

GIVEN THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPERIENCED TODAY /SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE 50S/...WE JUST REALLY HAVEN/T SEEN A LARGE COOL DOWN
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KY THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING. THIS IS
ESPECIALLY TRUE IN AREAS THAT HAVE NOT YET RECEIVED RAIN...OR HAVE
ONLY RECEIVED A SMALL AMOUNT. THIS BEING SAID...OTHER THAN ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 3000 FT...DON/T EXPECT RAIN TO START CHANGING OVER QUITE AS FAST
AS WHAT WAS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WORKED TO ADJUST THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FOR OVERNIGHT...BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND
SOUNDINGS...AS WELL AS BASED ON THE ONGOING CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES AND COOLING DOWNSTREAM...PREVIOUS SNOW PACK...ETC.
WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE CURRENT FORECAST...THE LATEST HRRR /WHICH
SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST INITIALIZATION FOR THIS SYSTEM/...AND A LITTLE
INFLUENCE FROM THE GFS...WHICH TRENDED CLOSER TO OVERALL THINKING FOR
THE LOW. THEN...ADJUSTED INDIVIDUAL LOCATIONS TO GET THEM WITHIN
BETTER TOLERANCE...INCLUDING BUMPING UP BLACK MOUNTAIN TO 29 DEGREES
AND OTHER TERRAIN ABOVE 2500 FEET TO BETWEEN 30 AND 32 DEGREES.
FURTHER MORE...GIVEN THE SLOW PROGRESS OF TEMPERATURES FALLING...WENT
AHEAD AND PUSHED BACK THE TIMING OF THE LOW TEMPERATURE TO 13Z
MONDAY. FROM HERE...USED A MIXTURE OF THE CONS-SHORT AND HAND EDITING
TO ADJUST THE DIURNAL CURVE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...THE SLIGHT UPTICK IN TEMPERATURE FORECAST
WILL RESULT IN A SEVERAL HOUR DIFFERENCE IN THE RAIN CHANGING OVER TO
SNOW. THIS WILL KEEP ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OUT OF THE FORECAST
THROUGH 12Z /WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BLACK MOUNTAIN/...AND LESS SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN FOR DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. BLACK MOUNTAIN IS
CURRENTLY AT 32 DEGREES...SO THEY MAY START TO MIX WITH SNOW AT ANY
TIME. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE REST OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY NOT SEE
SNOW MIXING IN UNTIL NEAR DAWN...THEN SLOWLY TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW
BETWEEN NOON AND 3PM. BY THIS POINT...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A
STRONG AMOUNT OF DRY AIR CUTTING OFF SOME OF THE BEST ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL...SNOW TOTALS WERE LOWERED
ACROSS THE CWA. EXPECT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FEET TO PICK UP THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS...BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES. SOME OF THE OTHER RIDGES
ACROSS THE AREA COULD SEE BETWEEN A HALF AN ONE INCH...BUT A MAJORITY
OF THE CWA WILL ONLY PICK UP A HALF INCH OR LESS. MOST OF THIS IS
STILL EXPECTED TO FALL BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z WHEN THE BEST LIFT AND
MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES COMBINE...AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES FINALLY
FALL ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 706 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

FRESHENED UP THE GRIDS WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR
TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS. THIS RESULTED IN LITTLE OVERALL
CHANGE FROM THE ONGOING FORECAST. BASED ON THE CURRENT RADAR
RETURNS...AND THE PWAT VALUES OVERNIGHT BEING AROUND A HALF INCH OR
LESS...WENT AHEAD AND REDUCED ANY MENTION OF MODERATE
RAINFALL/SNOWFALL TO LIGHT. JUST NOT SEEING A WHOLE LOT OF EVIDENCE
AT THIS POINT FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY INTENSITIES...THOUGH SNOW COULD
HAVE SOME HEAVIER SPOTS AT TIMES TOMORROW MORNING. LATEST NAM12
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REALLY START TO LOSE MOISTURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS
BETWEEN 6 AND 9 Z...WITH NOT MUCH LIFT EITHER...ALSO SUPPORTING
LIGHTER INTENSITIES. OTHERWISE...FORECAST SEEMS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD
SHAPE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE CENTER OF THE LOW IS CURRENTLY
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KY AND MOVING OUR DIRECTION...WITH THE NEXT ROUND
OF LIGHT RAIN ABOUT TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS AS OF 20Z ACROSS THE REGION FEATURES A SMALL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER MIDWEST TRACKING EAST INTO THE OH
VALLEY THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS...SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEGUN
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP BACK
WEST INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA. PLENTY OF SOUTHWEST
FLOW TODAY AND WAA INTO THE AREA HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPS TO RISE INTO
THE UPPER 40S AND EVEN LOWER 50S ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY.
MODELS SHOWING THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT AFTER 00Z
WILL HAVE THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN LATER. THIS ADVECTION WILL BEGIN
IN EARNEST JUST AFTER 06Z AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. EXPECTING A
CHANGE OVER IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH ALREADY TEMPS AT BLACK
MOUNTAIN REACHING ITS HIGH FOR THE DAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND IS NOW
BEGINNING TO DROP OFF AT THIS HOUR. MODEL PROFILES SHOW A BRIEF
PERIOD OF GOOD OMEGA THROUGH THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THE EVENT AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WITH COLD ENOUGH AIR MOVING IN...THERE COULD BE
SOME QUICK BURSTS OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EVEN IN THE
VALLEYS WHERE COLDER AIR HAS FINALLY MOVED IN. SPEAKING OF
TEMPERATURES...LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY...TEMPS WILL
BE FALLING INTO THE MORNING HOURS BUT SOME SLIGHT RADIATIONAL HEATING
DURING THE DAY BEFORE THE CORE OF THE AIR MASS MOVES IN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN TEMPS RISING A DEGREE
OR TWO OR HOLDING STEADY THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. TEMPS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY.

WINDS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY MORNING WILL THEN SWITCH AROUND TO
THE NORTHWEST FOR A FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE DEPTH HANGS AROUND THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME DECENT LIFT REMAINING
ACCORDING TO THE NAM AND GFS SO SOME DECENT SNOW SHOWERS WILL HANG
AROUND THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES FROM
WEST TO EAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE CORE OF THE AIR MASS MOVING IN
WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO PLUMMET INTO THE MID 20S MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY ADD TO THE THREAT OF HAZARDOUS AND SLICK ROADS.
THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

A RATHER AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. MODELS
REMAIN IN GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH
DIFFERENCES INCREASING TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SATES AND OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US
COAST...WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM MEXICO NORTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ROCKIES. AT THE SFC THE A DEEP SFC LOW/BLIZZARD
WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE NORTHEAST US COAST TO START THE PERIOD WITH
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND MS VALLEY REGION. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IN NW FLOW
BETWEEN THE TWO WILL DROP FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND REINFORCE A COLD AIRMASS WITH 850 MB
TEMPS TO FALL TO THE -8C TO -10C RANGE BY LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND TUE
EVENING.

AS THE TROUGH AXIS LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND THE SFC LOW MOVES
FURTHER UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION AND APPALACHIANS TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGING WILL WANE BY LATE WED NIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH BEGIN TO JOIN FORCES AND APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES AND
MS VALLEY REGION AS WELL AS THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION. THE
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SHOULD TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE AREA JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FROM WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED MOISTURE...AND THIS SHOULD BE ANOTHER EVENT WHERE THE
ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS FROM THE TOP DOWN. AT THE ONSET...SOME SNOW
COULD MIX IN PENDING THE STRENGTH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. THE CLOUDS ALSO MAY NOT
THICKEN QUICK ENOUGH TO PREVENT AT LEAST A MINOR RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT
FOR THE VALLEYS ON WED EVENING. AT THIS POINT...A LOW IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S OCCURRING AROUND 6Z ON THU IS EXPECTED.

COLDER AIR WILL WRAP BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND
POSSIBLY CHANGE ANY PRECIP BACK TO SNOW AS IT DEPARTS. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD THEN BUILD IN TO BRING A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF
LOWERS HEIGHTS MORE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL AS THE
GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN SEABOARD AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AND IS
THUS MUCH COLDER WITH THE AIRMASS. ANY SHORTWAVES AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD SHOULD BE RATHER MOISTURE STARVED WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS
FAVORING ANYTHING THAT FALLS BEING SNOW. FOR TEMPS LATE IN THE
PERIOD...OPTED TO GO A TAD COLDER THAN THE CONSENSUS BLEND...MORE IN
LINE WITH ISC CONSENSUS AND GIVING A BIT MORE CREDIT TO THE PAST 2
ECMWF RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 717 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

AVIATION CONCERNS WILL INCLUDE DROPPING CIGS THROUGH THIS EVENING
AND INTO TONIGHT. WENT A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC THROUGH ABOUT 6Z
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
SYSTEM RESULTING IN A LONGER TIME FOR LOWER CIGS DOWNSTREAM TO REACH
THE TAF SITES. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO NOW REACH THE AREA BETWEEN 4 AND
7Z TONIGHT...SLOWLY DROPPING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING
AS THE HEAVIER PRECIP ARRIVES AND THE THE LOWER LEVELS MOISTEN UP.
EXPECT AIRFIELD MINIMUM CIGS /OR JUST A COUPLE HUNDRED FEET ABOVE/ TO
ARRIVE BETWEEN 12 AND 14Z AND REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.
IT IS ALSO AT THIS POINT THAT RAIN WILL LIKELY MAKE THE TRANSITION TO
ALL SNOW AS TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE REGION. LOWEST
VISIBILITIES MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR DURING THIS CHANGEOVER PERIOD...BUT
COULD FLUCTUATE ANYWHERE BETWEEN MVFR AND AIRPORT MINIMUMS DEPENDING
ON THE INTENSITY OF THE BAND OF PRECIP PASSING OVERHEAD. WINDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE BY TOMORROW IN SOME LOCATIONS. SNOW
SHOULD LIGHTEN UP AND TAPER OFF LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED...GENERALLY AFTER 18Z.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JMW










000
FXUS63 KJKL 260441
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1141 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1137 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

GIVEN THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPERIENCED TODAY /SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE 50S/...WE JUST REALLY HAVEN/T SEEN A LARGE COOL DOWN
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KY THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING. THIS IS
ESPECIALLY TRUE IN AREAS THAT HAVE NOT YET RECEIVED RAIN...OR HAVE
ONLY RECEIVED A SMALL AMOUNT. THIS BEING SAID...OTHER THAN ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 3000 FT...DON/T EXPECT RAIN TO START CHANGING OVER QUITE AS FAST
AS WHAT WAS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WORKED TO ADJUST THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FOR OVERNIGHT...BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND
SOUNDINGS...AS WELL AS BASED ON THE ONGOING CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES AND COOLING DOWNSTREAM...PREVIOUS SNOW PACK...ETC.
WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE CURRENT FORECAST...THE LATEST HRRR /WHICH
SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST INITIALIZATION FOR THIS SYSTEM/...AND A LITTLE
INFLUENCE FROM THE GFS...WHICH TRENDED CLOSER TO OVERALL THINKING FOR
THE LOW. THEN...ADJUSTED INDIVIDUAL LOCATIONS TO GET THEM WITHIN
BETTER TOLERANCE...INCLUDING BUMPING UP BLACK MOUNTAIN TO 29 DEGREES
AND OTHER TERRAIN ABOVE 2500 FEET TO BETWEEN 30 AND 32 DEGREES.
FURTHER MORE...GIVEN THE SLOW PROGRESS OF TEMPERATURES FALLING...WENT
AHEAD AND PUSHED BACK THE TIMING OF THE LOW TEMPERATURE TO 13Z
MONDAY. FROM HERE...USED A MIXTURE OF THE CONS-SHORT AND HAND EDITING
TO ADJUST THE DIURNAL CURVE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...THE SLIGHT UPTICK IN TEMPERATURE FORECAST
WILL RESULT IN A SEVERAL HOUR DIFFERENCE IN THE RAIN CHANGING OVER TO
SNOW. THIS WILL KEEP ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OUT OF THE FORECAST
THROUGH 12Z /WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BLACK MOUNTAIN/...AND LESS SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN FOR DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. BLACK MOUNTAIN IS
CURRENTLY AT 32 DEGREES...SO THEY MAY START TO MIX WITH SNOW AT ANY
TIME. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE REST OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY NOT SEE
SNOW MIXING IN UNTIL NEAR DAWN...THEN SLOWLY TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW
BETWEEN NOON AND 3PM. BY THIS POINT...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A
STRONG AMOUNT OF DRY AIR CUTTING OFF SOME OF THE BEST ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL...SNOW TOTALS WERE LOWERED
ACROSS THE CWA. EXPECT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FEET TO PICK UP THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS...BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES. SOME OF THE OTHER RIDGES
ACROSS THE AREA COULD SEE BETWEEN A HALF AN ONE INCH...BUT A MAJORITY
OF THE CWA WILL ONLY PICK UP A HALF INCH OR LESS. MOST OF THIS IS
STILL EXPECTED TO FALL BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z WHEN THE BEST LIFT AND
MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES COMBINE...AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES FINALLY
FALL ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 706 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

FRESHENED UP THE GRIDS WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR
TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS. THIS RESULTED IN LITTLE OVERALL
CHANGE FROM THE ONGOING FORECAST. BASED ON THE CURRENT RADAR
RETURNS...AND THE PWAT VALUES OVERNIGHT BEING AROUND A HALF INCH OR
LESS...WENT AHEAD AND REDUCED ANY MENTION OF MODERATE
RAINFALL/SNOWFALL TO LIGHT. JUST NOT SEEING A WHOLE LOT OF EVIDENCE
AT THIS POINT FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY INTENSITIES...THOUGH SNOW COULD
HAVE SOME HEAVIER SPOTS AT TIMES TOMORROW MORNING. LATEST NAM12
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REALLY START TO LOSE MOISTURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS
BETWEEN 6 AND 9 Z...WITH NOT MUCH LIFT EITHER...ALSO SUPPORTING
LIGHTER INTENSITIES. OTHERWISE...FORECAST SEEMS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD
SHAPE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE CENTER OF THE LOW IS CURRENTLY
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KY AND MOVING OUR DIRECTION...WITH THE NEXT ROUND
OF LIGHT RAIN ABOUT TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS AS OF 20Z ACROSS THE REGION FEATURES A SMALL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER MIDWEST TRACKING EAST INTO THE OH
VALLEY THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS...SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEGUN
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP BACK
WEST INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA. PLENTY OF SOUTHWEST
FLOW TODAY AND WAA INTO THE AREA HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPS TO RISE INTO
THE UPPER 40S AND EVEN LOWER 50S ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY.
MODELS SHOWING THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT AFTER 00Z
WILL HAVE THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN LATER. THIS ADVECTION WILL BEGIN
IN EARNEST JUST AFTER 06Z AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. EXPECTING A
CHANGE OVER IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH ALREADY TEMPS AT BLACK
MOUNTAIN REACHING ITS HIGH FOR THE DAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND IS NOW
BEGINNING TO DROP OFF AT THIS HOUR. MODEL PROFILES SHOW A BRIEF
PERIOD OF GOOD OMEGA THROUGH THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THE EVENT AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WITH COLD ENOUGH AIR MOVING IN...THERE COULD BE
SOME QUICK BURSTS OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EVEN IN THE
VALLEYS WHERE COLDER AIR HAS FINALLY MOVED IN. SPEAKING OF
TEMPERATURES...LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY...TEMPS WILL
BE FALLING INTO THE MORNING HOURS BUT SOME SLIGHT RADIATIONAL HEATING
DURING THE DAY BEFORE THE CORE OF THE AIR MASS MOVES IN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN TEMPS RISING A DEGREE
OR TWO OR HOLDING STEADY THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. TEMPS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY.

WINDS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY MORNING WILL THEN SWITCH AROUND TO
THE NORTHWEST FOR A FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE DEPTH HANGS AROUND THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME DECENT LIFT REMAINING
ACCORDING TO THE NAM AND GFS SO SOME DECENT SNOW SHOWERS WILL HANG
AROUND THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES FROM
WEST TO EAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE CORE OF THE AIR MASS MOVING IN
WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO PLUMMET INTO THE MID 20S MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY ADD TO THE THREAT OF HAZARDOUS AND SLICK ROADS.
THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

A RATHER AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. MODELS
REMAIN IN GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH
DIFFERENCES INCREASING TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SATES AND OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US
COAST...WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM MEXICO NORTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ROCKIES. AT THE SFC THE A DEEP SFC LOW/BLIZZARD
WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE NORTHEAST US COAST TO START THE PERIOD WITH
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND MS VALLEY REGION. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IN NW FLOW
BETWEEN THE TWO WILL DROP FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND REINFORCE A COLD AIRMASS WITH 850 MB
TEMPS TO FALL TO THE -8C TO -10C RANGE BY LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND TUE
EVENING.

AS THE TROUGH AXIS LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND THE SFC LOW MOVES
FURTHER UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION AND APPALACHIANS TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGING WILL WANE BY LATE WED NIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH BEGIN TO JOIN FORCES AND APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES AND
MS VALLEY REGION AS WELL AS THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION. THE
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SHOULD TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE AREA JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FROM WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED MOISTURE...AND THIS SHOULD BE ANOTHER EVENT WHERE THE
ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS FROM THE TOP DOWN. AT THE ONSET...SOME SNOW
COULD MIX IN PENDING THE STRENGTH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. THE CLOUDS ALSO MAY NOT
THICKEN QUICK ENOUGH TO PREVENT AT LEAST A MINOR RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT
FOR THE VALLEYS ON WED EVENING. AT THIS POINT...A LOW IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S OCCURRING AROUND 6Z ON THU IS EXPECTED.

COLDER AIR WILL WRAP BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND
POSSIBLY CHANGE ANY PRECIP BACK TO SNOW AS IT DEPARTS. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD THEN BUILD IN TO BRING A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF
LOWERS HEIGHTS MORE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL AS THE
GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN SEABOARD AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AND IS
THUS MUCH COLDER WITH THE AIRMASS. ANY SHORTWAVES AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD SHOULD BE RATHER MOISTURE STARVED WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS
FAVORING ANYTHING THAT FALLS BEING SNOW. FOR TEMPS LATE IN THE
PERIOD...OPTED TO GO A TAD COLDER THAN THE CONSENSUS BLEND...MORE IN
LINE WITH ISC CONSENSUS AND GIVING A BIT MORE CREDIT TO THE PAST 2
ECMWF RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 717 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

AVIATION CONCERNS WILL INCLUDE DROPPING CIGS THROUGH THIS EVENING
AND INTO TONIGHT. WENT A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC THROUGH ABOUT 6Z
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
SYSTEM RESULTING IN A LONGER TIME FOR LOWER CIGS DOWNSTREAM TO REACH
THE TAF SITES. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO NOW REACH THE AREA BETWEEN 4 AND
7Z TONIGHT...SLOWLY DROPPING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING
AS THE HEAVIER PRECIP ARRIVES AND THE THE LOWER LEVELS MOISTEN UP.
EXPECT AIRFIELD MINIMUM CIGS /OR JUST A COUPLE HUNDRED FEET ABOVE/ TO
ARRIVE BETWEEN 12 AND 14Z AND REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.
IT IS ALSO AT THIS POINT THAT RAIN WILL LIKELY MAKE THE TRANSITION TO
ALL SNOW AS TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE REGION. LOWEST
VISIBILITIES MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR DURING THIS CHANGEOVER PERIOD...BUT
COULD FLUCTUATE ANYWHERE BETWEEN MVFR AND AIRPORT MINIMUMS DEPENDING
ON THE INTENSITY OF THE BAND OF PRECIP PASSING OVERHEAD. WINDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE BY TOMORROW IN SOME LOCATIONS. SNOW
SHOULD LIGHTEN UP AND TAPER OFF LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED...GENERALLY AFTER 18Z.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JMW









000
FXUS63 KJKL 260438
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1138 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1137 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

GIVEN THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPERIENCED TODAY /SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE 50S/...WE JUST REALLY HAVEN/T SEEN A LARGE COOL DOWN
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KY THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING. THIS IS
ESPECIALLY TRUE IN AREAS THAT HAVE NOT YET RECEIVED RAIN...OR HAVE
ONLY RECEIVED A SMALL AMOUNT. THIS BEING SAID...OTHER THAN ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 3000 FT...DON/T EXPECT RAIN TO START CHANGING OVER QUITE AS FAST
AS WHAT WAS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WORKED TO ADJUST THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FOR OVERNIGHT...BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND
SOUNDINGS...AS WELL AS BASED ON THE ONGOING CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES AND COOLING DOWNSTREAM...PREVIOUS SNOW PACK...ETC.
WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE CURRENT FORECAST...THE LATEST HRRR /WHICH
SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST INITIALIZATION FOR THIS SYSTEM/...AND A LITTLE
INFLUENCE FROM THE GFS...WHICH TRENDED CLOSER TO OVERALL THINKING FOR
THE LOW. THEN...ADJUSTED INDIVIDUAL LOCATIONS TO GET THEM WITHIN
BETTER TOLERANCE...INCLUDING BUMPING UP BLACK MOUNTAIN TO 29 DEGREES
AND OTHER TERRAIN ABOVE 2500 FEET TO BETWEEN 30 AND 32 DEGREES.
FURTHER MORE...GIVEN THE SLOW PROGRESS OF TEMPERATURES FALLING...WENT
AHEAD AND PUSHED BACK THE TIMING OF THE LOW TEMPERATURE TO 13Z
MONDAY. FROM HERE...USED A MIXTURE OF THE CONS-SHORT AND HAND EDITING
TO ADJUST THE DIURNAL CURVE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...THE SLIGHT UPTICK IN TEMPERATURE FORECAST
WILL RESULT IN A SEVERAL HOUR DIFFERENCE IN THE RAIN CHANGING OVER TO
SNOW. THIS WILL KEEP ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OUT OF THE FORECAST
THROUGH 12Z /WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BLACK MOUNTAIN/...AND LESS SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN FOR DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. BLACK MOUNTAIN IS
CURRENTLY AT 32 DEGREES...SO THEY MAY START TO MIX WITH SNOW AT ANY
TIME. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE REST OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY NOT SEE
SNOW MIXING IN UNTIL NEAR DAWN...THEN SLOWLY TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW
BETWEEN NOON AND 3PM. BY THIS POINT...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A
STRONG AMOUNT OF DRY AIR CUTTING OFF SOME OF THE BEST ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL...SNOW TOTALS WERE LOWERED
ACROSS THE CWA. EXPECT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FEET TO PICK UP THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS...BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES. SOME OF THE OTHER RIDGES
ACROSS THE AREA COULD SEE BETWEEN A HALF AN ONE INCH...BUT A MAJORITY
OF THE CWA WILL ONLY PICK UP A HALF INCH OR LESS. MOST OF THIS IS
STILL EXPECTED TO FALL BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z WHEN THE BEST LIFT AND
MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES COMBINE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 706 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

FRESHENED UP THE GRIDS WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR
TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS. THIS RESULTED IN LITTLE OVERALL
CHANGE FROM THE ONGOING FORECAST. BASED ON THE CURRENT RADAR
RETURNS...AND THE PWAT VALUES OVERNIGHT BEING AROUND A HALF INCH OR
LESS...WENT AHEAD AND REDUCED ANY MENTION OF MODERATE
RAINFALL/SNOWFALL TO LIGHT. JUST NOT SEEING A WHOLE LOT OF EVIDENCE
AT THIS POINT FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY INTENSITIES...THOUGH SNOW COULD
HAVE SOME HEAVIER SPOTS AT TIMES TOMORROW MORNING. LATEST NAM12
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REALLY START TO LOSE MOISTURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS
BETWEEN 6 AND 9 Z...WITH NOT MUCH LIFT EITHER...ALSO SUPPORTING
LIGHTER INTENSITIES. OTHERWISE...FORECAST SEEMS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD
SHAPE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE CENTER OF THE LOW IS CURRENTLY
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KY AND MOVING OUR DIRECTION...WITH THE NEXT ROUND
OF LIGHT RAIN ABOUT TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS AS OF 20Z ACROSS THE REGION FEATURES A SMALL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER MIDWEST TRACKING EAST INTO THE OH
VALLEY THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS...SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEGUN
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP BACK
WEST INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA. PLENTY OF SOUTHWEST
FLOW TODAY AND WAA INTO THE AREA HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPS TO RISE INTO
THE UPPER 40S AND EVEN LOWER 50S ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY.
MODELS SHOWING THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT AFTER 00Z
WILL HAVE THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN LATER. THIS ADVECTION WILL BEGIN
IN EARNEST JUST AFTER 06Z AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. EXPECTING A
CHANGE OVER IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH ALREADY TEMPS AT BLACK
MOUNTAIN REACHING ITS HIGH FOR THE DAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND IS NOW
BEGINNING TO DROP OFF AT THIS HOUR. MODEL PROFILES SHOW A BRIEF
PERIOD OF GOOD OMEGA THROUGH THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THE EVENT AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WITH COLD ENOUGH AIR MOVING IN...THERE COULD BE
SOME QUICK BURSTS OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EVEN IN THE
VALLEYS WHERE COLDER AIR HAS FINALLY MOVED IN. SPEAKING OF
TEMPERATURES...LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY...TEMPS WILL
BE FALLING INTO THE MORNING HOURS BUT SOME SLIGHT RADIATIONAL HEATING
DURING THE DAY BEFORE THE CORE OF THE AIR MASS MOVES IN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN TEMPS RISING A DEGREE
OR TWO OR HOLDING STEADY THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. TEMPS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY.

WINDS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY MORNING WILL THEN SWITCH AROUND TO
THE NORTHWEST FOR A FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE DEPTH HANGS AROUND THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME DECENT LIFT REMAINING
ACCORDING TO THE NAM AND GFS SO SOME DECENT SNOW SHOWERS WILL HANG
AROUND THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES FROM
WEST TO EAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE CORE OF THE AIR MASS MOVING IN
WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO PLUMMET INTO THE MID 20S MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY ADD TO THE THREAT OF HAZARDOUS AND SLICK ROADS.
THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

A RATHER AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. MODELS
REMAIN IN GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH
DIFFERENCES INCREASING TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SATES AND OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US
COAST...WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM MEXICO NORTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ROCKIES. AT THE SFC THE A DEEP SFC LOW/BLIZZARD
WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE NORTHEAST US COAST TO START THE PERIOD WITH
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND MS VALLEY REGION. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IN NW FLOW
BETWEEN THE TWO WILL DROP FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND REINFORCE A COLD AIRMASS WITH 850 MB
TEMPS TO FALL TO THE -8C TO -10C RANGE BY LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND TUE
EVENING.

AS THE TROUGH AXIS LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND THE SFC LOW MOVES
FURTHER UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION AND APPALACHIANS TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGING WILL WANE BY LATE WED NIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH BEGIN TO JOIN FORCES AND APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES AND
MS VALLEY REGION AS WELL AS THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION. THE
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SHOULD TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE AREA JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FROM WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED MOISTURE...AND THIS SHOULD BE ANOTHER EVENT WHERE THE
ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS FROM THE TOP DOWN. AT THE ONSET...SOME SNOW
COULD MIX IN PENDING THE STRENGTH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. THE CLOUDS ALSO MAY NOT
THICKEN QUICK ENOUGH TO PREVENT AT LEAST A MINOR RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT
FOR THE VALLEYS ON WED EVENING. AT THIS POINT...A LOW IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S OCCURRING AROUND 6Z ON THU IS EXPECTED.

COLDER AIR WILL WRAP BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND
POSSIBLY CHANGE ANY PRECIP BACK TO SNOW AS IT DEPARTS. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD THEN BUILD IN TO BRING A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF
LOWERS HEIGHTS MORE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL AS THE
GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN SEABOARD AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AND IS
THUS MUCH COLDER WITH THE AIRMASS. ANY SHORTWAVES AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD SHOULD BE RATHER MOISTURE STARVED WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS
FAVORING ANYTHING THAT FALLS BEING SNOW. FOR TEMPS LATE IN THE
PERIOD...OPTED TO GO A TAD COLDER THAN THE CONSENSUS BLEND...MORE IN
LINE WITH ISC CONSENSUS AND GIVING A BIT MORE CREDIT TO THE PAST 2
ECMWF RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 717 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

AVIATION CONCERNS WILL INCLUDE DROPPING CIGS THROUGH THIS EVENING
AND INTO TONIGHT. WENT A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC THROUGH ABOUT 6Z
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
SYSTEM RESULTING IN A LONGER TIME FOR LOWER CIGS DOWNSTREAM TO REACH
THE TAF SITES. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO NOW REACH THE AREA BETWEEN 4 AND
7Z TONIGHT...SLOWLY DROPPING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING
AS THE HEAVIER PRECIP ARRIVES AND THE THE LOWER LEVELS MOISTEN UP.
EXPECT AIRFIELD MINIMUM CIGS /OR JUST A COUPLE HUNDRED FEET ABOVE/ TO
ARRIVE BETWEEN 12 AND 14Z AND REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.
IT IS ALSO AT THIS POINT THAT RAIN WILL LIKELY MAKE THE TRANSITION TO
ALL SNOW AS TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE REGION. LOWEST
VISIBILITIES MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR DURING THIS CHANGEOVER PERIOD...BUT
COULD FLUCTUATE ANYWHERE BETWEEN MVFR AND AIRPORT MINIMUMS DEPENDING
ON THE INTENSITY OF THE BAND OF PRECIP PASSING OVERHEAD. WINDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE BY TOMORROW IN SOME LOCATIONS. SNOW
SHOULD LIGHTEN UP AND TAPER OFF LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED...GENERALLY AFTER 18Z.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JMW







000
FXUS63 KJKL 260438
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1138 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1137 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

GIVEN THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPERIENCED TODAY /SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE 50S/...WE JUST REALLY HAVEN/T SEEN A LARGE COOL DOWN
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KY THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING. THIS IS
ESPECIALLY TRUE IN AREAS THAT HAVE NOT YET RECEIVED RAIN...OR HAVE
ONLY RECEIVED A SMALL AMOUNT. THIS BEING SAID...OTHER THAN ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 3000 FT...DON/T EXPECT RAIN TO START CHANGING OVER QUITE AS FAST
AS WHAT WAS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WORKED TO ADJUST THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FOR OVERNIGHT...BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND
SOUNDINGS...AS WELL AS BASED ON THE ONGOING CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES AND COOLING DOWNSTREAM...PREVIOUS SNOW PACK...ETC.
WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE CURRENT FORECAST...THE LATEST HRRR /WHICH
SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST INITIALIZATION FOR THIS SYSTEM/...AND A LITTLE
INFLUENCE FROM THE GFS...WHICH TRENDED CLOSER TO OVERALL THINKING FOR
THE LOW. THEN...ADJUSTED INDIVIDUAL LOCATIONS TO GET THEM WITHIN
BETTER TOLERANCE...INCLUDING BUMPING UP BLACK MOUNTAIN TO 29 DEGREES
AND OTHER TERRAIN ABOVE 2500 FEET TO BETWEEN 30 AND 32 DEGREES.
FURTHER MORE...GIVEN THE SLOW PROGRESS OF TEMPERATURES FALLING...WENT
AHEAD AND PUSHED BACK THE TIMING OF THE LOW TEMPERATURE TO 13Z
MONDAY. FROM HERE...USED A MIXTURE OF THE CONS-SHORT AND HAND EDITING
TO ADJUST THE DIURNAL CURVE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...THE SLIGHT UPTICK IN TEMPERATURE FORECAST
WILL RESULT IN A SEVERAL HOUR DIFFERENCE IN THE RAIN CHANGING OVER TO
SNOW. THIS WILL KEEP ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OUT OF THE FORECAST
THROUGH 12Z /WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BLACK MOUNTAIN/...AND LESS SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN FOR DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. BLACK MOUNTAIN IS
CURRENTLY AT 32 DEGREES...SO THEY MAY START TO MIX WITH SNOW AT ANY
TIME. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE REST OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY NOT SEE
SNOW MIXING IN UNTIL NEAR DAWN...THEN SLOWLY TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW
BETWEEN NOON AND 3PM. BY THIS POINT...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A
STRONG AMOUNT OF DRY AIR CUTTING OFF SOME OF THE BEST ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL...SNOW TOTALS WERE LOWERED
ACROSS THE CWA. EXPECT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FEET TO PICK UP THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS...BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES. SOME OF THE OTHER RIDGES
ACROSS THE AREA COULD SEE BETWEEN A HALF AN ONE INCH...BUT A MAJORITY
OF THE CWA WILL ONLY PICK UP A HALF INCH OR LESS. MOST OF THIS IS
STILL EXPECTED TO FALL BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z WHEN THE BEST LIFT AND
MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES COMBINE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 706 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

FRESHENED UP THE GRIDS WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR
TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS. THIS RESULTED IN LITTLE OVERALL
CHANGE FROM THE ONGOING FORECAST. BASED ON THE CURRENT RADAR
RETURNS...AND THE PWAT VALUES OVERNIGHT BEING AROUND A HALF INCH OR
LESS...WENT AHEAD AND REDUCED ANY MENTION OF MODERATE
RAINFALL/SNOWFALL TO LIGHT. JUST NOT SEEING A WHOLE LOT OF EVIDENCE
AT THIS POINT FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY INTENSITIES...THOUGH SNOW COULD
HAVE SOME HEAVIER SPOTS AT TIMES TOMORROW MORNING. LATEST NAM12
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REALLY START TO LOSE MOISTURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS
BETWEEN 6 AND 9 Z...WITH NOT MUCH LIFT EITHER...ALSO SUPPORTING
LIGHTER INTENSITIES. OTHERWISE...FORECAST SEEMS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD
SHAPE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE CENTER OF THE LOW IS CURRENTLY
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KY AND MOVING OUR DIRECTION...WITH THE NEXT ROUND
OF LIGHT RAIN ABOUT TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS AS OF 20Z ACROSS THE REGION FEATURES A SMALL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER MIDWEST TRACKING EAST INTO THE OH
VALLEY THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS...SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEGUN
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP BACK
WEST INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA. PLENTY OF SOUTHWEST
FLOW TODAY AND WAA INTO THE AREA HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPS TO RISE INTO
THE UPPER 40S AND EVEN LOWER 50S ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY.
MODELS SHOWING THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT AFTER 00Z
WILL HAVE THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN LATER. THIS ADVECTION WILL BEGIN
IN EARNEST JUST AFTER 06Z AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. EXPECTING A
CHANGE OVER IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH ALREADY TEMPS AT BLACK
MOUNTAIN REACHING ITS HIGH FOR THE DAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND IS NOW
BEGINNING TO DROP OFF AT THIS HOUR. MODEL PROFILES SHOW A BRIEF
PERIOD OF GOOD OMEGA THROUGH THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THE EVENT AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WITH COLD ENOUGH AIR MOVING IN...THERE COULD BE
SOME QUICK BURSTS OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EVEN IN THE
VALLEYS WHERE COLDER AIR HAS FINALLY MOVED IN. SPEAKING OF
TEMPERATURES...LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY...TEMPS WILL
BE FALLING INTO THE MORNING HOURS BUT SOME SLIGHT RADIATIONAL HEATING
DURING THE DAY BEFORE THE CORE OF THE AIR MASS MOVES IN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN TEMPS RISING A DEGREE
OR TWO OR HOLDING STEADY THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. TEMPS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY.

WINDS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY MORNING WILL THEN SWITCH AROUND TO
THE NORTHWEST FOR A FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE DEPTH HANGS AROUND THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME DECENT LIFT REMAINING
ACCORDING TO THE NAM AND GFS SO SOME DECENT SNOW SHOWERS WILL HANG
AROUND THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES FROM
WEST TO EAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE CORE OF THE AIR MASS MOVING IN
WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO PLUMMET INTO THE MID 20S MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY ADD TO THE THREAT OF HAZARDOUS AND SLICK ROADS.
THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

A RATHER AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. MODELS
REMAIN IN GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH
DIFFERENCES INCREASING TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SATES AND OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US
COAST...WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM MEXICO NORTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ROCKIES. AT THE SFC THE A DEEP SFC LOW/BLIZZARD
WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE NORTHEAST US COAST TO START THE PERIOD WITH
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND MS VALLEY REGION. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IN NW FLOW
BETWEEN THE TWO WILL DROP FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND REINFORCE A COLD AIRMASS WITH 850 MB
TEMPS TO FALL TO THE -8C TO -10C RANGE BY LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND TUE
EVENING.

AS THE TROUGH AXIS LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND THE SFC LOW MOVES
FURTHER UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION AND APPALACHIANS TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGING WILL WANE BY LATE WED NIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH BEGIN TO JOIN FORCES AND APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES AND
MS VALLEY REGION AS WELL AS THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION. THE
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SHOULD TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE AREA JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FROM WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED MOISTURE...AND THIS SHOULD BE ANOTHER EVENT WHERE THE
ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS FROM THE TOP DOWN. AT THE ONSET...SOME SNOW
COULD MIX IN PENDING THE STRENGTH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. THE CLOUDS ALSO MAY NOT
THICKEN QUICK ENOUGH TO PREVENT AT LEAST A MINOR RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT
FOR THE VALLEYS ON WED EVENING. AT THIS POINT...A LOW IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S OCCURRING AROUND 6Z ON THU IS EXPECTED.

COLDER AIR WILL WRAP BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND
POSSIBLY CHANGE ANY PRECIP BACK TO SNOW AS IT DEPARTS. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD THEN BUILD IN TO BRING A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF
LOWERS HEIGHTS MORE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL AS THE
GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN SEABOARD AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AND IS
THUS MUCH COLDER WITH THE AIRMASS. ANY SHORTWAVES AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD SHOULD BE RATHER MOISTURE STARVED WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS
FAVORING ANYTHING THAT FALLS BEING SNOW. FOR TEMPS LATE IN THE
PERIOD...OPTED TO GO A TAD COLDER THAN THE CONSENSUS BLEND...MORE IN
LINE WITH ISC CONSENSUS AND GIVING A BIT MORE CREDIT TO THE PAST 2
ECMWF RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 717 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

AVIATION CONCERNS WILL INCLUDE DROPPING CIGS THROUGH THIS EVENING
AND INTO TONIGHT. WENT A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC THROUGH ABOUT 6Z
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
SYSTEM RESULTING IN A LONGER TIME FOR LOWER CIGS DOWNSTREAM TO REACH
THE TAF SITES. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO NOW REACH THE AREA BETWEEN 4 AND
7Z TONIGHT...SLOWLY DROPPING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING
AS THE HEAVIER PRECIP ARRIVES AND THE THE LOWER LEVELS MOISTEN UP.
EXPECT AIRFIELD MINIMUM CIGS /OR JUST A COUPLE HUNDRED FEET ABOVE/ TO
ARRIVE BETWEEN 12 AND 14Z AND REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.
IT IS ALSO AT THIS POINT THAT RAIN WILL LIKELY MAKE THE TRANSITION TO
ALL SNOW AS TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE REGION. LOWEST
VISIBILITIES MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR DURING THIS CHANGEOVER PERIOD...BUT
COULD FLUCTUATE ANYWHERE BETWEEN MVFR AND AIRPORT MINIMUMS DEPENDING
ON THE INTENSITY OF THE BAND OF PRECIP PASSING OVERHEAD. WINDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE BY TOMORROW IN SOME LOCATIONS. SNOW
SHOULD LIGHTEN UP AND TAPER OFF LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED...GENERALLY AFTER 18Z.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JMW








000
FXUS63 KJKL 260021
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
721 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 706 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

FRESHENED UP THE GRIDS WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR
TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS. THIS RESULTED IN LITTLE OVERALL
CHANGE FROM THE ONGOING FORECAST. BASED ON THE CURRENT RADAR
RETURNS...AND THE PWAT VALUES OVERNIGHT BEING AROUND A HALF INCH OR
LESS...WENT AHEAD AND REDUCED ANY MENTION OF MODERATE
RAINFALL/SNOWFALL TO LIGHT. JUST NOT SEEING A WHOLE LOT OF EVIDENCE
AT THIS POINT FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY INTENSITIES...THOUGH SNOW COULD
HAVE SOME HEAVIER SPOTS AT TIMES TOMORROW MORNING. LATEST NAM12
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REALLY START TO LOSE MOISTURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS
BETWEEN 6 AND 9 Z...WITH NOT MUCH LIFT EITHER...ALSO SUPPORTING
LIGHTER INTENSITIES. OTHERWISE...FORECAST SEEMS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD
SHAPE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE CENTER OF THE LOW IS CURRENTLY
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KY AND MOVING OUR DIRECTION...WITH THE NEXT ROUND
OF LIGHT RAIN ABOUT TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS AS OF 20Z ACROSS THE REGION FEATURES A SMALL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER MIDWEST TRACKING EAST INTO THE OH
VALLEY THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS...SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEGUN
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP BACK
WEST INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA. PLENTY OF SOUTHWEST
FLOW TODAY AND WAA INTO THE AREA HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPS TO RISE INTO
THE UPPER 40S AND EVEN LOWER 50S ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY.
MODELS SHOWING THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT AFTER 00Z
WILL HAVE THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN LATER. THIS ADVECTION WILL BEGIN
IN EARNEST JUST AFTER 06Z AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. EXPECTING A
CHANGE OVER IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH ALREADY TEMPS AT BLACK
MOUNTAIN REACHING ITS HIGH FOR THE DAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND IS NOW
BEGINNING TO DROP OFF AT THIS HOUR. MODEL PROFILES SHOW A BRIEF
PERIOD OF GOOD OMEGA THROUGH THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THE EVENT AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WITH COLD ENOUGH AIR MOVING IN...THERE COULD BE
SOME QUICK BURSTS OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EVEN IN THE
VALLEYS WHERE COLDER AIR HAS FINALLY MOVED IN. SPEAKING OF
TEMPERATURES...LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY...TEMPS WILL
BE FALLING INTO THE MORNING HOURS BUT SOME SLIGHT RADIATIONAL HEATING
DURING THE DAY BEFORE THE CORE OF THE AIR MASS MOVES IN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN TEMPS RISING A DEGREE
OR TWO OR HOLDING STEADY THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. TEMPS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY.

WINDS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY MORNING WILL THEN SWITCH AROUND TO
THE NORTHWEST FOR A FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE DEPTH HANGS AROUND THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME DECENT LIFT REMAINING
ACCORDING TO THE NAM AND GFS SO SOME DECENT SNOW SHOWERS WILL HANG
AROUND THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES FROM
WEST TO EAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE CORE OF THE AIR MASS MOVING IN
WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO PLUMMET INTO THE MID 20S MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY ADD TO THE THREAT OF HAZARDOUS AND SLICK ROADS.
THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

A RATHER AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. MODELS
REMAIN IN GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH
DIFFERENCES INCREASING TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SATES AND OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US
COAST...WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM MEXICO NORTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ROCKIES. AT THE SFC THE A DEEP SFC LOW/BLIZZARD
WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE NORTHEAST US COAST TO START THE PERIOD WITH
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND MS VALLEY REGION. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IN NW FLOW
BETWEEN THE TWO WILL DROP FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND REINFORCE A COLD AIRMASS WITH 850 MB
TEMPS TO FALL TO THE -8C TO -10C RANGE BY LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND TUE
EVENING.

AS THE TROUGH AXIS LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND THE SFC LOW MOVES
FURTHER UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION AND APPALACHIANS TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGING WILL WANE BY LATE WED NIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH BEGIN TO JOIN FORCES AND APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES AND
MS VALLEY REGION AS WELL AS THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION. THE
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SHOULD TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE AREA JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FROM WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED MOISTURE...AND THIS SHOULD BE ANOTHER EVENT WHERE THE
ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS FROM THE TOP DOWN. AT THE ONSET...SOME SNOW
COULD MIX IN PENDING THE STRENGTH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. THE CLOUDS ALSO MAY NOT
THICKEN QUICK ENOUGH TO PREVENT AT LEAST A MINOR RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT
FOR THE VALLEYS ON WED EVENING. AT THIS POINT...A LOW IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S OCCURRING AROUND 6Z ON THU IS EXPECTED.

COLDER AIR WILL WRAP BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND
POSSIBLY CHANGE ANY PRECIP BACK TO SNOW AS IT DEPARTS. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD THEN BUILD IN TO BRING A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF
LOWERS HEIGHTS MORE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL AS THE
GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN SEABOARD AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AND IS
THUS MUCH COLDER WITH THE AIRMASS. ANY SHORTWAVES AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD SHOULD BE RATHER MOISTURE STARVED WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS
FAVORING ANYTHING THAT FALLS BEING SNOW. FOR TEMPS LATE IN THE
PERIOD...OPTED TO GO A TAD COLDER THAN THE CONSENSUS BLEND...MORE IN
LINE WITH ISC CONSENSUS AND GIVING A BIT MORE CREDIT TO THE PAST 2
ECMWF RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 717 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

AVIATION CONCERNS WILL INCLUDE DROPPING CIGS THROUGH THIS EVENING
AND INTO TONIGHT. WENT A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC THROUGH ABOUT 6Z
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
SYSTEM RESULTING IN A LONGER TIME FOR LOWER CIGS DOWNSTREAM TO REACH
THE TAF SITES. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO NOW REACH THE AREA BETWEEN 4 AND
7Z TONIGHT...SLOWLY DROPPING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING
AS THE HEAVIER PRECIP ARRIVES AND THE THE LOWER LEVELS MOISTEN UP.
EXPECT AIRFIELD MINIMUM CIGS /OR JUST A COUPLE HUNDRED FEET ABOVE/ TO
ARRIVE BETWEEN 12 AND 14Z AND REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.
IT IS ALSO AT THIS POINT THAT RAIN WILL LIKELY MAKE THE TRANSITION TO
ALL SNOW AS TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE REGION. LOWEST
VISIBILITIES MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR DURING THIS CHANGEOVER PERIOD...BUT
COULD FLUCTUATE ANYWHERE BETWEEN MVFR AND AIRPORT MINIMUMS DEPENDING
ON THE INTENSITY OF THE BAND OF PRECIP PASSING OVERHEAD. WINDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE BY TOMORROW IN SOME LOCATIONS. SNOW
SHOULD LIGHTEN UP AND TAPER OFF LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED...GENERALLY AFTER 18Z.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JMW







000
FXUS63 KJKL 260021
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
721 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 706 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

FRESHENED UP THE GRIDS WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR
TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS. THIS RESULTED IN LITTLE OVERALL
CHANGE FROM THE ONGOING FORECAST. BASED ON THE CURRENT RADAR
RETURNS...AND THE PWAT VALUES OVERNIGHT BEING AROUND A HALF INCH OR
LESS...WENT AHEAD AND REDUCED ANY MENTION OF MODERATE
RAINFALL/SNOWFALL TO LIGHT. JUST NOT SEEING A WHOLE LOT OF EVIDENCE
AT THIS POINT FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY INTENSITIES...THOUGH SNOW COULD
HAVE SOME HEAVIER SPOTS AT TIMES TOMORROW MORNING. LATEST NAM12
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REALLY START TO LOSE MOISTURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS
BETWEEN 6 AND 9 Z...WITH NOT MUCH LIFT EITHER...ALSO SUPPORTING
LIGHTER INTENSITIES. OTHERWISE...FORECAST SEEMS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD
SHAPE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE CENTER OF THE LOW IS CURRENTLY
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KY AND MOVING OUR DIRECTION...WITH THE NEXT ROUND
OF LIGHT RAIN ABOUT TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS AS OF 20Z ACROSS THE REGION FEATURES A SMALL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER MIDWEST TRACKING EAST INTO THE OH
VALLEY THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS...SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEGUN
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP BACK
WEST INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA. PLENTY OF SOUTHWEST
FLOW TODAY AND WAA INTO THE AREA HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPS TO RISE INTO
THE UPPER 40S AND EVEN LOWER 50S ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY.
MODELS SHOWING THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT AFTER 00Z
WILL HAVE THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN LATER. THIS ADVECTION WILL BEGIN
IN EARNEST JUST AFTER 06Z AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. EXPECTING A
CHANGE OVER IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH ALREADY TEMPS AT BLACK
MOUNTAIN REACHING ITS HIGH FOR THE DAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND IS NOW
BEGINNING TO DROP OFF AT THIS HOUR. MODEL PROFILES SHOW A BRIEF
PERIOD OF GOOD OMEGA THROUGH THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THE EVENT AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WITH COLD ENOUGH AIR MOVING IN...THERE COULD BE
SOME QUICK BURSTS OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EVEN IN THE
VALLEYS WHERE COLDER AIR HAS FINALLY MOVED IN. SPEAKING OF
TEMPERATURES...LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY...TEMPS WILL
BE FALLING INTO THE MORNING HOURS BUT SOME SLIGHT RADIATIONAL HEATING
DURING THE DAY BEFORE THE CORE OF THE AIR MASS MOVES IN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN TEMPS RISING A DEGREE
OR TWO OR HOLDING STEADY THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. TEMPS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY.

WINDS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY MORNING WILL THEN SWITCH AROUND TO
THE NORTHWEST FOR A FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE DEPTH HANGS AROUND THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME DECENT LIFT REMAINING
ACCORDING TO THE NAM AND GFS SO SOME DECENT SNOW SHOWERS WILL HANG
AROUND THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES FROM
WEST TO EAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE CORE OF THE AIR MASS MOVING IN
WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO PLUMMET INTO THE MID 20S MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY ADD TO THE THREAT OF HAZARDOUS AND SLICK ROADS.
THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

A RATHER AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. MODELS
REMAIN IN GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH
DIFFERENCES INCREASING TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SATES AND OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US
COAST...WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM MEXICO NORTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ROCKIES. AT THE SFC THE A DEEP SFC LOW/BLIZZARD
WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE NORTHEAST US COAST TO START THE PERIOD WITH
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND MS VALLEY REGION. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IN NW FLOW
BETWEEN THE TWO WILL DROP FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND REINFORCE A COLD AIRMASS WITH 850 MB
TEMPS TO FALL TO THE -8C TO -10C RANGE BY LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND TUE
EVENING.

AS THE TROUGH AXIS LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND THE SFC LOW MOVES
FURTHER UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION AND APPALACHIANS TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGING WILL WANE BY LATE WED NIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH BEGIN TO JOIN FORCES AND APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES AND
MS VALLEY REGION AS WELL AS THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION. THE
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SHOULD TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE AREA JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FROM WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED MOISTURE...AND THIS SHOULD BE ANOTHER EVENT WHERE THE
ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS FROM THE TOP DOWN. AT THE ONSET...SOME SNOW
COULD MIX IN PENDING THE STRENGTH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. THE CLOUDS ALSO MAY NOT
THICKEN QUICK ENOUGH TO PREVENT AT LEAST A MINOR RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT
FOR THE VALLEYS ON WED EVENING. AT THIS POINT...A LOW IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S OCCURRING AROUND 6Z ON THU IS EXPECTED.

COLDER AIR WILL WRAP BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND
POSSIBLY CHANGE ANY PRECIP BACK TO SNOW AS IT DEPARTS. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD THEN BUILD IN TO BRING A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF
LOWERS HEIGHTS MORE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL AS THE
GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN SEABOARD AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AND IS
THUS MUCH COLDER WITH THE AIRMASS. ANY SHORTWAVES AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD SHOULD BE RATHER MOISTURE STARVED WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS
FAVORING ANYTHING THAT FALLS BEING SNOW. FOR TEMPS LATE IN THE
PERIOD...OPTED TO GO A TAD COLDER THAN THE CONSENSUS BLEND...MORE IN
LINE WITH ISC CONSENSUS AND GIVING A BIT MORE CREDIT TO THE PAST 2
ECMWF RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 717 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

AVIATION CONCERNS WILL INCLUDE DROPPING CIGS THROUGH THIS EVENING
AND INTO TONIGHT. WENT A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC THROUGH ABOUT 6Z
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
SYSTEM RESULTING IN A LONGER TIME FOR LOWER CIGS DOWNSTREAM TO REACH
THE TAF SITES. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO NOW REACH THE AREA BETWEEN 4 AND
7Z TONIGHT...SLOWLY DROPPING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING
AS THE HEAVIER PRECIP ARRIVES AND THE THE LOWER LEVELS MOISTEN UP.
EXPECT AIRFIELD MINIMUM CIGS /OR JUST A COUPLE HUNDRED FEET ABOVE/ TO
ARRIVE BETWEEN 12 AND 14Z AND REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.
IT IS ALSO AT THIS POINT THAT RAIN WILL LIKELY MAKE THE TRANSITION TO
ALL SNOW AS TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE REGION. LOWEST
VISIBILITIES MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR DURING THIS CHANGEOVER PERIOD...BUT
COULD FLUCTUATE ANYWHERE BETWEEN MVFR AND AIRPORT MINIMUMS DEPENDING
ON THE INTENSITY OF THE BAND OF PRECIP PASSING OVERHEAD. WINDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE BY TOMORROW IN SOME LOCATIONS. SNOW
SHOULD LIGHTEN UP AND TAPER OFF LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED...GENERALLY AFTER 18Z.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JMW








000
FXUS63 KJKL 252136
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
436 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS AS OF 20Z ACROSS THE REGION FEATURES A SMALL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER MIDWEST TRACKING EAST INTO THE OH
VALLEY THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS...SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEGUN
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP BACK
WEST INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA. PLENTY OF SOUTHWEST
FLOW TODAY AND WAA INTO THE AREA HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPS TO RISE INTO
THE UPPER 40S AND EVEN LOWER 50S ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY.
MODELS SHOWING THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT AFTER 00Z
WILL HAVE THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN LATER. THIS ADVECTION WILL BEGIN
IN EARNEST JUST AFTER 06Z AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. EXPECTING A
CHANGE OVER IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH ALREADY TEMPS AT BLACK
MOUNTAIN REACHING ITS HIGH FOR THE DAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND IS NOW
BEGINNING TO DROP OFF AT THIS HOUR. MODEL PROFILES SHOW A BRIEF
PERIOD OF GOOD OMEGA THROUGH THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THE EVENT AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WITH COLD ENOUGH AIR MOVING IN...THERE COULD BE
SOME QUICK BURSTS OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EVEN IN THE
VALLEYS WHERE COLDER AIR HAS FINALLY MOVED IN. SPEAKING OF
TEMPERATURES...LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY...TEMPS WILL
BE FALLING INTO THE MORNING HOURS BUT SOME SLIGHT RADIATIONAL HEATING
DURING THE DAY BEFORE THE CORE OF THE AIR MASS MOVES IN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN TEMPS RISING A DEGREE
OR TWO OR HOLDING STEADY THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. TEMPS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY.

WINDS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY MORNING WILL THEN SWITCH AROUND TO
THE NORTHWEST FOR A FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE DEPTH HANGS AROUND THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME DECENT LIFT REMAINING
ACCORDING TO THE NAM AND GFS SO SOME DECENT SNOW SHOWERS WILL HANG
AROUND THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES FROM
WEST TO EAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE CORE OF THE AIR MASS MOVING IN
WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO PLUMMET INTO THE MID 20S MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY ADD TO THE THREAT OF HAZARDOUS AND SLICK ROADS.
THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

A RATHER AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. MODELS
REMAIN IN GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH
DIFFERENCES INCREASING TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SATES AND OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US
COAST...WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM MEXICO NORTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ROCKIES. AT THE SFC THE A DEEP SFC LOW/BLIZZARD
WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE NORTHEAST US COAST TO START THE PERIOD WITH
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND MS VALLEY REGION. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IN NW FLOW
BETWEEN THE TWO WILL DROP FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND REINFORCE A COLD AIRMASS WITH 850 MB
TEMPS TO FALL TO THE -8C TO -10C RANGE BY LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND TUE
EVENING.

AS THE TROUGH AXIS LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND THE SFC LOW MOVES
FURTHER UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION AND APPALACHIANS TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGING WILL WANE BY LATE WED NIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH BEGIN TO JOIN FORCES AND APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES AND
MS VALLEY REGION AS WELL AS THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION. THE
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SHOULD TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE AREA JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FROM WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED MOISTURE...AND THIS SHOULD BE ANOTHER EVENT WHERE THE
ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS FROM THE TOP DOWN. AT THE ONSET...SOME SNOW
COULD MIX IN PENDING THE STRENGTH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. THE CLOUDS ALSO MAY NOT
THICKEN QUICK ENOUGH TO PREVENT AT LEAST A MINOR RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT
FOR THE VALLEYS ON WED EVENING. AT THIS POINT...A LOW IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S OCCURRING AROUND 6Z ON THU IS EXPECTED.

COLDER AIR WILL WRAP BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND
POSSIBLY CHANGE ANY PRECIP BACK TO SNOW AS IT DEPARTS. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD THEN BUILD IN TO BRING A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF
LOWERS HEIGHTS MORE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL AS THE
GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN SEABOARD AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AND IS
THUS MUCH COLDER WITH THE AIRMASS. ANY SHORTWAVES AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD SHOULD BE RATHER MOISTURE STARVED WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS
FAVORING ANYTHING THAT FALLS BEING SNOW. FOR TEMPS LATE IN THE
PERIOD...OPTED TO GO A TAD COLDER THAN THE CONSENSUS BLEND...MORE IN
LINE WITH ISC CONSENSUS AND GIVING A BIT MORE CREDIT TO THE PAST 2
ECMWF RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

CONCERNS FOR AVIATION WILL BE DROPPING CIGS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
INTO TONIGHT. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO REACH THE AREA BETWEEN 23Z AND 01Z
TONIGHT AND SLOWLY DROP THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE HEAVIER PRECIP
ARRIVES AND THE THE LOWER LEVELS MOISTEN UP. EXPECT AIRFIELD MINIMUMS
FOR CIGS TO ARRIVE BY 12Z AND REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD AND RAIN AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES TO CHANGE TO SNOW WITH VIS
TO DROP BELOW 2 MILES AT TIMES. WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER








000
FXUS63 KJKL 252136
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
436 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS AS OF 20Z ACROSS THE REGION FEATURES A SMALL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER MIDWEST TRACKING EAST INTO THE OH
VALLEY THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS...SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEGUN
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP BACK
WEST INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA. PLENTY OF SOUTHWEST
FLOW TODAY AND WAA INTO THE AREA HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPS TO RISE INTO
THE UPPER 40S AND EVEN LOWER 50S ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY.
MODELS SHOWING THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT AFTER 00Z
WILL HAVE THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN LATER. THIS ADVECTION WILL BEGIN
IN EARNEST JUST AFTER 06Z AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. EXPECTING A
CHANGE OVER IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH ALREADY TEMPS AT BLACK
MOUNTAIN REACHING ITS HIGH FOR THE DAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND IS NOW
BEGINNING TO DROP OFF AT THIS HOUR. MODEL PROFILES SHOW A BRIEF
PERIOD OF GOOD OMEGA THROUGH THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THE EVENT AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WITH COLD ENOUGH AIR MOVING IN...THERE COULD BE
SOME QUICK BURSTS OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EVEN IN THE
VALLEYS WHERE COLDER AIR HAS FINALLY MOVED IN. SPEAKING OF
TEMPERATURES...LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY...TEMPS WILL
BE FALLING INTO THE MORNING HOURS BUT SOME SLIGHT RADIATIONAL HEATING
DURING THE DAY BEFORE THE CORE OF THE AIR MASS MOVES IN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN TEMPS RISING A DEGREE
OR TWO OR HOLDING STEADY THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. TEMPS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY.

WINDS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY MORNING WILL THEN SWITCH AROUND TO
THE NORTHWEST FOR A FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE DEPTH HANGS AROUND THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME DECENT LIFT REMAINING
ACCORDING TO THE NAM AND GFS SO SOME DECENT SNOW SHOWERS WILL HANG
AROUND THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES FROM
WEST TO EAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE CORE OF THE AIR MASS MOVING IN
WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO PLUMMET INTO THE MID 20S MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY ADD TO THE THREAT OF HAZARDOUS AND SLICK ROADS.
THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

A RATHER AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. MODELS
REMAIN IN GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH
DIFFERENCES INCREASING TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SATES AND OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US
COAST...WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM MEXICO NORTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ROCKIES. AT THE SFC THE A DEEP SFC LOW/BLIZZARD
WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE NORTHEAST US COAST TO START THE PERIOD WITH
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND MS VALLEY REGION. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IN NW FLOW
BETWEEN THE TWO WILL DROP FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND REINFORCE A COLD AIRMASS WITH 850 MB
TEMPS TO FALL TO THE -8C TO -10C RANGE BY LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND TUE
EVENING.

AS THE TROUGH AXIS LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND THE SFC LOW MOVES
FURTHER UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION AND APPALACHIANS TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGING WILL WANE BY LATE WED NIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH BEGIN TO JOIN FORCES AND APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES AND
MS VALLEY REGION AS WELL AS THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION. THE
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SHOULD TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE AREA JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FROM WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED MOISTURE...AND THIS SHOULD BE ANOTHER EVENT WHERE THE
ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS FROM THE TOP DOWN. AT THE ONSET...SOME SNOW
COULD MIX IN PENDING THE STRENGTH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. THE CLOUDS ALSO MAY NOT
THICKEN QUICK ENOUGH TO PREVENT AT LEAST A MINOR RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT
FOR THE VALLEYS ON WED EVENING. AT THIS POINT...A LOW IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S OCCURRING AROUND 6Z ON THU IS EXPECTED.

COLDER AIR WILL WRAP BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND
POSSIBLY CHANGE ANY PRECIP BACK TO SNOW AS IT DEPARTS. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD THEN BUILD IN TO BRING A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF
LOWERS HEIGHTS MORE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL AS THE
GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN SEABOARD AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AND IS
THUS MUCH COLDER WITH THE AIRMASS. ANY SHORTWAVES AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD SHOULD BE RATHER MOISTURE STARVED WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS
FAVORING ANYTHING THAT FALLS BEING SNOW. FOR TEMPS LATE IN THE
PERIOD...OPTED TO GO A TAD COLDER THAN THE CONSENSUS BLEND...MORE IN
LINE WITH ISC CONSENSUS AND GIVING A BIT MORE CREDIT TO THE PAST 2
ECMWF RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

CONCERNS FOR AVIATION WILL BE DROPPING CIGS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
INTO TONIGHT. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO REACH THE AREA BETWEEN 23Z AND 01Z
TONIGHT AND SLOWLY DROP THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE HEAVIER PRECIP
ARRIVES AND THE THE LOWER LEVELS MOISTEN UP. EXPECT AIRFIELD MINIMUMS
FOR CIGS TO ARRIVE BY 12Z AND REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD AND RAIN AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES TO CHANGE TO SNOW WITH VIS
TO DROP BELOW 2 MILES AT TIMES. WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER








000
FXUS63 KJKL 252136
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
436 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS AS OF 20Z ACROSS THE REGION FEATURES A SMALL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER MIDWEST TRACKING EAST INTO THE OH
VALLEY THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS...SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEGUN
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP BACK
WEST INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA. PLENTY OF SOUTHWEST
FLOW TODAY AND WAA INTO THE AREA HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPS TO RISE INTO
THE UPPER 40S AND EVEN LOWER 50S ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY.
MODELS SHOWING THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT AFTER 00Z
WILL HAVE THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN LATER. THIS ADVECTION WILL BEGIN
IN EARNEST JUST AFTER 06Z AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. EXPECTING A
CHANGE OVER IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH ALREADY TEMPS AT BLACK
MOUNTAIN REACHING ITS HIGH FOR THE DAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND IS NOW
BEGINNING TO DROP OFF AT THIS HOUR. MODEL PROFILES SHOW A BRIEF
PERIOD OF GOOD OMEGA THROUGH THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THE EVENT AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WITH COLD ENOUGH AIR MOVING IN...THERE COULD BE
SOME QUICK BURSTS OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EVEN IN THE
VALLEYS WHERE COLDER AIR HAS FINALLY MOVED IN. SPEAKING OF
TEMPERATURES...LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY...TEMPS WILL
BE FALLING INTO THE MORNING HOURS BUT SOME SLIGHT RADIATIONAL HEATING
DURING THE DAY BEFORE THE CORE OF THE AIR MASS MOVES IN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN TEMPS RISING A DEGREE
OR TWO OR HOLDING STEADY THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. TEMPS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY.

WINDS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY MORNING WILL THEN SWITCH AROUND TO
THE NORTHWEST FOR A FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE DEPTH HANGS AROUND THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME DECENT LIFT REMAINING
ACCORDING TO THE NAM AND GFS SO SOME DECENT SNOW SHOWERS WILL HANG
AROUND THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES FROM
WEST TO EAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE CORE OF THE AIR MASS MOVING IN
WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO PLUMMET INTO THE MID 20S MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY ADD TO THE THREAT OF HAZARDOUS AND SLICK ROADS.
THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

A RATHER AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. MODELS
REMAIN IN GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH
DIFFERENCES INCREASING TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SATES AND OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US
COAST...WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM MEXICO NORTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ROCKIES. AT THE SFC THE A DEEP SFC LOW/BLIZZARD
WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE NORTHEAST US COAST TO START THE PERIOD WITH
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND MS VALLEY REGION. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IN NW FLOW
BETWEEN THE TWO WILL DROP FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND REINFORCE A COLD AIRMASS WITH 850 MB
TEMPS TO FALL TO THE -8C TO -10C RANGE BY LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND TUE
EVENING.

AS THE TROUGH AXIS LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND THE SFC LOW MOVES
FURTHER UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION AND APPALACHIANS TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGING WILL WANE BY LATE WED NIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH BEGIN TO JOIN FORCES AND APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES AND
MS VALLEY REGION AS WELL AS THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION. THE
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SHOULD TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE AREA JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FROM WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED MOISTURE...AND THIS SHOULD BE ANOTHER EVENT WHERE THE
ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS FROM THE TOP DOWN. AT THE ONSET...SOME SNOW
COULD MIX IN PENDING THE STRENGTH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. THE CLOUDS ALSO MAY NOT
THICKEN QUICK ENOUGH TO PREVENT AT LEAST A MINOR RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT
FOR THE VALLEYS ON WED EVENING. AT THIS POINT...A LOW IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S OCCURRING AROUND 6Z ON THU IS EXPECTED.

COLDER AIR WILL WRAP BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND
POSSIBLY CHANGE ANY PRECIP BACK TO SNOW AS IT DEPARTS. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD THEN BUILD IN TO BRING A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF
LOWERS HEIGHTS MORE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL AS THE
GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN SEABOARD AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AND IS
THUS MUCH COLDER WITH THE AIRMASS. ANY SHORTWAVES AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD SHOULD BE RATHER MOISTURE STARVED WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS
FAVORING ANYTHING THAT FALLS BEING SNOW. FOR TEMPS LATE IN THE
PERIOD...OPTED TO GO A TAD COLDER THAN THE CONSENSUS BLEND...MORE IN
LINE WITH ISC CONSENSUS AND GIVING A BIT MORE CREDIT TO THE PAST 2
ECMWF RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

CONCERNS FOR AVIATION WILL BE DROPPING CIGS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
INTO TONIGHT. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO REACH THE AREA BETWEEN 23Z AND 01Z
TONIGHT AND SLOWLY DROP THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE HEAVIER PRECIP
ARRIVES AND THE THE LOWER LEVELS MOISTEN UP. EXPECT AIRFIELD MINIMUMS
FOR CIGS TO ARRIVE BY 12Z AND REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD AND RAIN AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES TO CHANGE TO SNOW WITH VIS
TO DROP BELOW 2 MILES AT TIMES. WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER







000
FXUS63 KJKL 252136
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
436 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS AS OF 20Z ACROSS THE REGION FEATURES A SMALL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER MIDWEST TRACKING EAST INTO THE OH
VALLEY THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS...SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEGUN
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP BACK
WEST INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA. PLENTY OF SOUTHWEST
FLOW TODAY AND WAA INTO THE AREA HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPS TO RISE INTO
THE UPPER 40S AND EVEN LOWER 50S ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY.
MODELS SHOWING THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT AFTER 00Z
WILL HAVE THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN LATER. THIS ADVECTION WILL BEGIN
IN EARNEST JUST AFTER 06Z AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. EXPECTING A
CHANGE OVER IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH ALREADY TEMPS AT BLACK
MOUNTAIN REACHING ITS HIGH FOR THE DAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND IS NOW
BEGINNING TO DROP OFF AT THIS HOUR. MODEL PROFILES SHOW A BRIEF
PERIOD OF GOOD OMEGA THROUGH THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THE EVENT AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WITH COLD ENOUGH AIR MOVING IN...THERE COULD BE
SOME QUICK BURSTS OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EVEN IN THE
VALLEYS WHERE COLDER AIR HAS FINALLY MOVED IN. SPEAKING OF
TEMPERATURES...LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY...TEMPS WILL
BE FALLING INTO THE MORNING HOURS BUT SOME SLIGHT RADIATIONAL HEATING
DURING THE DAY BEFORE THE CORE OF THE AIR MASS MOVES IN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN TEMPS RISING A DEGREE
OR TWO OR HOLDING STEADY THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. TEMPS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY.

WINDS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY MORNING WILL THEN SWITCH AROUND TO
THE NORTHWEST FOR A FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE DEPTH HANGS AROUND THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME DECENT LIFT REMAINING
ACCORDING TO THE NAM AND GFS SO SOME DECENT SNOW SHOWERS WILL HANG
AROUND THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES FROM
WEST TO EAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE CORE OF THE AIR MASS MOVING IN
WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO PLUMMET INTO THE MID 20S MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY ADD TO THE THREAT OF HAZARDOUS AND SLICK ROADS.
THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

A RATHER AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. MODELS
REMAIN IN GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH
DIFFERENCES INCREASING TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SATES AND OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US
COAST...WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM MEXICO NORTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ROCKIES. AT THE SFC THE A DEEP SFC LOW/BLIZZARD
WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE NORTHEAST US COAST TO START THE PERIOD WITH
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND MS VALLEY REGION. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IN NW FLOW
BETWEEN THE TWO WILL DROP FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND REINFORCE A COLD AIRMASS WITH 850 MB
TEMPS TO FALL TO THE -8C TO -10C RANGE BY LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND TUE
EVENING.

AS THE TROUGH AXIS LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND THE SFC LOW MOVES
FURTHER UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION AND APPALACHIANS TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGING WILL WANE BY LATE WED NIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH BEGIN TO JOIN FORCES AND APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES AND
MS VALLEY REGION AS WELL AS THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION. THE
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SHOULD TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE AREA JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FROM WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED MOISTURE...AND THIS SHOULD BE ANOTHER EVENT WHERE THE
ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS FROM THE TOP DOWN. AT THE ONSET...SOME SNOW
COULD MIX IN PENDING THE STRENGTH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. THE CLOUDS ALSO MAY NOT
THICKEN QUICK ENOUGH TO PREVENT AT LEAST A MINOR RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT
FOR THE VALLEYS ON WED EVENING. AT THIS POINT...A LOW IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S OCCURRING AROUND 6Z ON THU IS EXPECTED.

COLDER AIR WILL WRAP BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND
POSSIBLY CHANGE ANY PRECIP BACK TO SNOW AS IT DEPARTS. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD THEN BUILD IN TO BRING A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF
LOWERS HEIGHTS MORE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL AS THE
GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN SEABOARD AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AND IS
THUS MUCH COLDER WITH THE AIRMASS. ANY SHORTWAVES AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD SHOULD BE RATHER MOISTURE STARVED WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS
FAVORING ANYTHING THAT FALLS BEING SNOW. FOR TEMPS LATE IN THE
PERIOD...OPTED TO GO A TAD COLDER THAN THE CONSENSUS BLEND...MORE IN
LINE WITH ISC CONSENSUS AND GIVING A BIT MORE CREDIT TO THE PAST 2
ECMWF RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

CONCERNS FOR AVIATION WILL BE DROPPING CIGS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
INTO TONIGHT. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO REACH THE AREA BETWEEN 23Z AND 01Z
TONIGHT AND SLOWLY DROP THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE HEAVIER PRECIP
ARRIVES AND THE THE LOWER LEVELS MOISTEN UP. EXPECT AIRFIELD MINIMUMS
FOR CIGS TO ARRIVE BY 12Z AND REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD AND RAIN AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES TO CHANGE TO SNOW WITH VIS
TO DROP BELOW 2 MILES AT TIMES. WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER







000
FXUS63 KJKL 252109
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
409 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS AS OF 20Z ACROSS THE REGION FEATURES A SMALL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER MIDWEST TRACKING EAST INTO THE OH
VALLEY THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS...SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEGUN
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP BACK
WEST INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA. PLENTY OF SOUTHWEST
FLOW TODAY AND WAA INTO THE AREA HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPS TO RISE INTO
THE UPPER 40S AND EVEN LOWER 50S ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY.
MODELS SHOWING THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT AFTER 00Z
WILL HAVE THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN LATER. THIS ADVECTION WILL BEGIN
IN EARNEST JUST AFTER 06Z AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. EXPECTING A
CHANGE OVER IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH ALREADY TEMPS AT BLACK
MOUNTAIN REACHING ITS HIGH FOR THE DAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND IS NOW
BEGINNING TO DROP OFF AT THIS HOUR. MODEL PROFILES SHOW A BRIEF
PERIOD OF GOOD OMEGA THROUGH THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THE EVENT AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WITH COLD ENOUGH AIR MOVING IN...THERE COULD BE
SOME QUICK BURSTS OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EVEN IN THE
VALLEYS WHERE COLDER AIR HAS FINALLY MOVED IN. SPEAKING OF
TEMPERATURES...LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY...TEMPS WILL
BE FALLING INTO THE MORNING HOURS BUT SOME SLIGHT RADIATIONAL HEATING
DURING THE DAY BEFORE THE CORE OF THE AIR MASS MOVES IN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN TEMPS RISING A DEGREE
OR TWO OR HOLDING STEADY THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. TEMPS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY.

WINDS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY MORNING WILL THEN SWITCH AROUND TO
THE NORTHWEST FOR A FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE DEPTH HANGS AROUND THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME DECENT LIFT REMAINING
ACCORDING TO THE NAM AND GFS SO SOME DECENT SNOW SHOWERS WILL HANG
AROUND THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES FROM
WEST TO EAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE CORE OF THE AIR MASS MOVING IN
WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO PLUMMET INTO THE MID 20S MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY ADD TO THE THREAT OF HAZARDOUS AND SLICK ROADS.
THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

CONCERNS FOR AVIATION WILL BE DROPPING CIGS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
INTO TONIGHT. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO REACH THE AREA BETWEEN 23Z AND 01Z
TONIGHT AND SLOWLY DROP THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE HEAVIER PRECIP
ARRIVES AND THE THE LOWER LEVELS MOISTEN UP. EXPECT AIRFIELD MINIMUMS
FOR CIGS TO ARRIVE BY 12Z AND REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD AND RAIN AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES TO CHANGE TO SNOW WITH VIS
TO DROP BELOW 2 MILES AT TIMES. WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER







000
FXUS63 KJKL 252109
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
409 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS AS OF 20Z ACROSS THE REGION FEATURES A SMALL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER MIDWEST TRACKING EAST INTO THE OH
VALLEY THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS...SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEGUN
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP BACK
WEST INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA. PLENTY OF SOUTHWEST
FLOW TODAY AND WAA INTO THE AREA HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPS TO RISE INTO
THE UPPER 40S AND EVEN LOWER 50S ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY.
MODELS SHOWING THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT AFTER 00Z
WILL HAVE THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN LATER. THIS ADVECTION WILL BEGIN
IN EARNEST JUST AFTER 06Z AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. EXPECTING A
CHANGE OVER IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH ALREADY TEMPS AT BLACK
MOUNTAIN REACHING ITS HIGH FOR THE DAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND IS NOW
BEGINNING TO DROP OFF AT THIS HOUR. MODEL PROFILES SHOW A BRIEF
PERIOD OF GOOD OMEGA THROUGH THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THE EVENT AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WITH COLD ENOUGH AIR MOVING IN...THERE COULD BE
SOME QUICK BURSTS OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EVEN IN THE
VALLEYS WHERE COLDER AIR HAS FINALLY MOVED IN. SPEAKING OF
TEMPERATURES...LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY...TEMPS WILL
BE FALLING INTO THE MORNING HOURS BUT SOME SLIGHT RADIATIONAL HEATING
DURING THE DAY BEFORE THE CORE OF THE AIR MASS MOVES IN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN TEMPS RISING A DEGREE
OR TWO OR HOLDING STEADY THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. TEMPS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY.

WINDS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY MORNING WILL THEN SWITCH AROUND TO
THE NORTHWEST FOR A FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE DEPTH HANGS AROUND THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME DECENT LIFT REMAINING
ACCORDING TO THE NAM AND GFS SO SOME DECENT SNOW SHOWERS WILL HANG
AROUND THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES FROM
WEST TO EAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE CORE OF THE AIR MASS MOVING IN
WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO PLUMMET INTO THE MID 20S MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY ADD TO THE THREAT OF HAZARDOUS AND SLICK ROADS.
THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

CONCERNS FOR AVIATION WILL BE DROPPING CIGS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
INTO TONIGHT. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO REACH THE AREA BETWEEN 23Z AND 01Z
TONIGHT AND SLOWLY DROP THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE HEAVIER PRECIP
ARRIVES AND THE THE LOWER LEVELS MOISTEN UP. EXPECT AIRFIELD MINIMUMS
FOR CIGS TO ARRIVE BY 12Z AND REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD AND RAIN AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES TO CHANGE TO SNOW WITH VIS
TO DROP BELOW 2 MILES AT TIMES. WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER








000
FXUS63 KJKL 251809
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
109 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 110 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS FEATURE THE RAIN JUST NORTH OF I-64 AND MOVING
SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING LIKE THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK WITH SOME POSSIBLE TWEAKS STILL
NEEDED TO THE DIURNAL TREND DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AS TEMPS MAY
STILL BE STEADY OR DROPPING THROUGH THE DAY. FOR NOW...HAVE UPDATED
THE GRIDS WITH THE LATEST OBS AND SENT TO THE NDFD SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1109 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

RECENT MODEL UPDATES CONTINUES TO BE MORE AND MORE CONSISTENT ON THE
PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE PRECIP ARRIVING THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
INTO TO MORROW MORNING WITH THE APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM. AS
SUCH...HAVE DECIDED TO UPDATE THE FORECAST AND PUT IN CATEGORICAL
POPS INTO THE FORECAST...ALSO TO BETTER MATCH UP WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES. AS WELL...ADJUSTED FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
CHALLENGING PORTION OF THE TEMP RANGE WILL BE LATE TONIGHT AS TEMPS
DROP WITH THE COLDER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA BUT AS MORNING
ARRIVES AND MINIMAL RADIATIONAL HEATING BEGINS FOR THE DAY...THE
VALLEYS WILL HAVE A ROUGH TIME WARMING UP IF NOT REMAINING STEADY
INTO THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER TERRAIN TEMPS WILL REMAIN STEADY OR DROP
THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW. WITH THESE
UPDATES...THE CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW IN SOME AREAS MAY BE A BIT
EARLIER AND MAY CHANGE SNOWFALL TOTALS. WILL REEVALUATE WITH THE
AFTERNOON UPDATES AND ARRIVAL OF THE 12Z MODEL RUNS BUT TOTALS LOOK
MUCH THE SAME AT THIS POINT WITH A NEEDED HIGHLIGHT OF SPS FOR NOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

IR SAT CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME HIGH CLOUDS SLOWLY PROGRESSING INTO
EASTERN KY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE TEMPS HAVE BEEN TRICKY WITH MANY
VALLEY LOCATIONS ABLE TO DECOUPLE THIS MORNING LEADING TO 10 DEGREE
SPLITS IN SOME CASES. FRESHENED UP GRIDS WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS
WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

IR SATELLITE INDICATES HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUING TO WORK
INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING. THIS IS BEING PROVIDED BY NEXT SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AND SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF THE MIDWEST. CLOUDS
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO PROGRESS INTO THE REGION AND HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME
RIDGE/VALLEY SPLITS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING.
AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTH AND BEGIN MOVING
INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIP WILL BE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. GIVEN
THAT LATEST RUNS SLOWED THIS SYSTEM A BIT OPTED TO LEAN THAT
DIRECTION WHICH WILL MATCH BETTER WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. ALSO
GIVEN DECENT WARM NOSE AHEAD OF THIS LOW DID UP MAX TEMPS TODAY A BIT
WHICH ALSO MATCHES BETTER WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND THIS ALSO
INTRODUCES A BIT WARMER TEMP CURVE INTO PORTIONS OF THIS EVENING.

THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
REGION...WHILE COLDER AIR WILL BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW MIXING OF RAIN AND SNOW TO
BEGIN OCCURRING MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY THIS WILL CHANGE
TO MOSTLY SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY. THIS
CHANGE OVER WILL OCCUR GENERALLY NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY. GIVEN THAT BETTER QPF DOES NOT COINCIDE WITH COLDER AIR
THINKING ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT AT THIS POINT. BEST
ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN 2000 FT AND
ABOVE WHERE A INCH OR MORE COULD OCCUR. MOVING INTO MONDAY WOULD
EXPECT MOST AREAS WILL BEGIN SEEING MORE UPSLOPE COMPONENT SNOW AS
MAIN LOW WILL BE EAST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS ENERGY TRANSFERS
TO DEVELOPING NOREASTER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN AFFECTING THE NATION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A DEEPENING CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY WITH THE GFS MORE ROBUST THAN THE
ECMWF. A STREAM OF ENERGY WILL FLOW NORTH NORTHWEST TO SOUTH
SOUTHEAST INTO THIS TROUGH AND RIGHT OVER EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE PATTERN BREAKS DOWN BY MIDDAY...THOUGH...AS
BROAD RIDGING PUSHES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST BRINGING RISING
HEIGHTS A NOTCH QUICKER IN FROM THE GFS AND GEM THAN THE ECMWF. THIS
RIDGING WILL BE SHORT LIVED DUE TO A NASCENT TROUGH TAKING SHAPE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THIS TROUGH BECOMES STRONGEST IN
THE ECMWF AS IT DIVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
LATER THURSDAY WHILE THE GFS AND GEM ARE COMPARATIVELY FAR WEAKER
AND ILL-DEFINED. IN FACT...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH CLOSES OFF AS IT
PASSES OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY MORNING ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF.
EVEN TRAILING THIS ROBUST WAVE...THE ECMWF BRINGS A PACKET OF ENERGY
THROUGH THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING WHILE ANOTHER STRONG...BUT
SHALLOW...TROUGH WORKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY EVENING.
MEANWHILE...A LARGE AND FAIRLY DEEP CLOSED LOW REIGNS OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWEST...NEAR THE BAJA PENINSULA...FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINTAINING SPLIT FLOW IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. THIS IS
A FAR CRY FROM THE BOLD PHASED STREAM FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN OHIO
VALLEY THAT THE GFS WAS TEASING US WITH SEVERAL RUNS AGO. ANYWAYS...
HAVE FAVORED A CONSENSUS FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE LEANING
SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE MORE AMPLIFIED ECMWF.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A DEEPENING COASTAL SYSTEM OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC SEABOARD AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED WITH A MOISTURE TRAIL
LEFT BEHIND OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY AND STRETCHED NORTHWEST TO A WEAK
SFC LOW IN THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE DEEPENING OF THIS COASTAL AND ITS
HUGGING OF THE COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SOME
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY THAT COULD LINGER FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING...THANKS ALSO TO THE SOME ADDED
LAKE MOISTURE. FOLLOWING THIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER AIR TO
THE STATE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER SFC LOW CROSSES THE
OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL MAKE FOR
ANOTHER RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SCENARIO FOR LATER THURSDAY THROUGH
MIDDAY FRIDAY AS YET ANOTHER COASTAL LOW PUNISHES THE MID ATLANTIC
AND COASTAL NEW ENGLAND STATES TO START THE WEEKEND. WHILE KENTUCKY
WILL SEEMINGLY BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS FOR SATURDAY...A SURGE OF ARCTIC
AIR IS LOOKING LIKE A BETTER BET FOR LATER THAT DAY AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME SNOW FOR THE AREA DESPITE LIMITED
MOISTURE. AGAIN THIS IS QUITE DIFFERENT FROM THE VERY SNOWY SOLUTION
FROM THE GFS A FEW RUNS AGO.

THE CR GRID LOAD ONCE AGAIN MADE FOR A GOOD STARTING POINT FOR THE
EXTENDED FORECAST WITH CHANGES MAINLY MADE TO BETTER REFLECT THE
LINGERING SNOW CHANCES TUESDAY PER THE EXPECTED UPSLOPE FETCH.
AGAIN...MADE SOME TYPICAL RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS
FOR LOWS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

CONCERNS FOR AVIATION WILL BE DROPPING CIGS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
INTO TONIGHT. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO REACH THE AREA BETWEEN 23Z AND 01Z
TONIGHT AND SLOWLY DROP THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE HEAVIER PRECIP
ARRIVES AND THE THE LOWER LEVELS MOISTEN UP. EXPECT AIRFIELD MINIMUMS
FOR CIGS TO ARRIVE BY 12Z AND REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD AND RAIN AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES TO CHANGE TO SNOW WITH VIS
TO DROP BELOW 2 MILES AT TIMES. WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER







000
FXUS63 KJKL 251809
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
109 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 110 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS FEATURE THE RAIN JUST NORTH OF I-64 AND MOVING
SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING LIKE THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK WITH SOME POSSIBLE TWEAKS STILL
NEEDED TO THE DIURNAL TREND DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AS TEMPS MAY
STILL BE STEADY OR DROPPING THROUGH THE DAY. FOR NOW...HAVE UPDATED
THE GRIDS WITH THE LATEST OBS AND SENT TO THE NDFD SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1109 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

RECENT MODEL UPDATES CONTINUES TO BE MORE AND MORE CONSISTENT ON THE
PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE PRECIP ARRIVING THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
INTO TO MORROW MORNING WITH THE APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM. AS
SUCH...HAVE DECIDED TO UPDATE THE FORECAST AND PUT IN CATEGORICAL
POPS INTO THE FORECAST...ALSO TO BETTER MATCH UP WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES. AS WELL...ADJUSTED FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
CHALLENGING PORTION OF THE TEMP RANGE WILL BE LATE TONIGHT AS TEMPS
DROP WITH THE COLDER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA BUT AS MORNING
ARRIVES AND MINIMAL RADIATIONAL HEATING BEGINS FOR THE DAY...THE
VALLEYS WILL HAVE A ROUGH TIME WARMING UP IF NOT REMAINING STEADY
INTO THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER TERRAIN TEMPS WILL REMAIN STEADY OR DROP
THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW. WITH THESE
UPDATES...THE CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW IN SOME AREAS MAY BE A BIT
EARLIER AND MAY CHANGE SNOWFALL TOTALS. WILL REEVALUATE WITH THE
AFTERNOON UPDATES AND ARRIVAL OF THE 12Z MODEL RUNS BUT TOTALS LOOK
MUCH THE SAME AT THIS POINT WITH A NEEDED HIGHLIGHT OF SPS FOR NOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

IR SAT CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME HIGH CLOUDS SLOWLY PROGRESSING INTO
EASTERN KY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE TEMPS HAVE BEEN TRICKY WITH MANY
VALLEY LOCATIONS ABLE TO DECOUPLE THIS MORNING LEADING TO 10 DEGREE
SPLITS IN SOME CASES. FRESHENED UP GRIDS WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS
WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

IR SATELLITE INDICATES HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUING TO WORK
INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING. THIS IS BEING PROVIDED BY NEXT SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AND SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF THE MIDWEST. CLOUDS
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO PROGRESS INTO THE REGION AND HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME
RIDGE/VALLEY SPLITS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING.
AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTH AND BEGIN MOVING
INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIP WILL BE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. GIVEN
THAT LATEST RUNS SLOWED THIS SYSTEM A BIT OPTED TO LEAN THAT
DIRECTION WHICH WILL MATCH BETTER WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. ALSO
GIVEN DECENT WARM NOSE AHEAD OF THIS LOW DID UP MAX TEMPS TODAY A BIT
WHICH ALSO MATCHES BETTER WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND THIS ALSO
INTRODUCES A BIT WARMER TEMP CURVE INTO PORTIONS OF THIS EVENING.

THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
REGION...WHILE COLDER AIR WILL BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW MIXING OF RAIN AND SNOW TO
BEGIN OCCURRING MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY THIS WILL CHANGE
TO MOSTLY SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY. THIS
CHANGE OVER WILL OCCUR GENERALLY NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY. GIVEN THAT BETTER QPF DOES NOT COINCIDE WITH COLDER AIR
THINKING ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT AT THIS POINT. BEST
ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN 2000 FT AND
ABOVE WHERE A INCH OR MORE COULD OCCUR. MOVING INTO MONDAY WOULD
EXPECT MOST AREAS WILL BEGIN SEEING MORE UPSLOPE COMPONENT SNOW AS
MAIN LOW WILL BE EAST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS ENERGY TRANSFERS
TO DEVELOPING NOREASTER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN AFFECTING THE NATION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A DEEPENING CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY WITH THE GFS MORE ROBUST THAN THE
ECMWF. A STREAM OF ENERGY WILL FLOW NORTH NORTHWEST TO SOUTH
SOUTHEAST INTO THIS TROUGH AND RIGHT OVER EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE PATTERN BREAKS DOWN BY MIDDAY...THOUGH...AS
BROAD RIDGING PUSHES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST BRINGING RISING
HEIGHTS A NOTCH QUICKER IN FROM THE GFS AND GEM THAN THE ECMWF. THIS
RIDGING WILL BE SHORT LIVED DUE TO A NASCENT TROUGH TAKING SHAPE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THIS TROUGH BECOMES STRONGEST IN
THE ECMWF AS IT DIVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
LATER THURSDAY WHILE THE GFS AND GEM ARE COMPARATIVELY FAR WEAKER
AND ILL-DEFINED. IN FACT...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH CLOSES OFF AS IT
PASSES OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY MORNING ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF.
EVEN TRAILING THIS ROBUST WAVE...THE ECMWF BRINGS A PACKET OF ENERGY
THROUGH THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING WHILE ANOTHER STRONG...BUT
SHALLOW...TROUGH WORKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY EVENING.
MEANWHILE...A LARGE AND FAIRLY DEEP CLOSED LOW REIGNS OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWEST...NEAR THE BAJA PENINSULA...FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINTAINING SPLIT FLOW IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. THIS IS
A FAR CRY FROM THE BOLD PHASED STREAM FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN OHIO
VALLEY THAT THE GFS WAS TEASING US WITH SEVERAL RUNS AGO. ANYWAYS...
HAVE FAVORED A CONSENSUS FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE LEANING
SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE MORE AMPLIFIED ECMWF.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A DEEPENING COASTAL SYSTEM OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC SEABOARD AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED WITH A MOISTURE TRAIL
LEFT BEHIND OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY AND STRETCHED NORTHWEST TO A WEAK
SFC LOW IN THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE DEEPENING OF THIS COASTAL AND ITS
HUGGING OF THE COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SOME
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY THAT COULD LINGER FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING...THANKS ALSO TO THE SOME ADDED
LAKE MOISTURE. FOLLOWING THIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER AIR TO
THE STATE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER SFC LOW CROSSES THE
OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL MAKE FOR
ANOTHER RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SCENARIO FOR LATER THURSDAY THROUGH
MIDDAY FRIDAY AS YET ANOTHER COASTAL LOW PUNISHES THE MID ATLANTIC
AND COASTAL NEW ENGLAND STATES TO START THE WEEKEND. WHILE KENTUCKY
WILL SEEMINGLY BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS FOR SATURDAY...A SURGE OF ARCTIC
AIR IS LOOKING LIKE A BETTER BET FOR LATER THAT DAY AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME SNOW FOR THE AREA DESPITE LIMITED
MOISTURE. AGAIN THIS IS QUITE DIFFERENT FROM THE VERY SNOWY SOLUTION
FROM THE GFS A FEW RUNS AGO.

THE CR GRID LOAD ONCE AGAIN MADE FOR A GOOD STARTING POINT FOR THE
EXTENDED FORECAST WITH CHANGES MAINLY MADE TO BETTER REFLECT THE
LINGERING SNOW CHANCES TUESDAY PER THE EXPECTED UPSLOPE FETCH.
AGAIN...MADE SOME TYPICAL RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS
FOR LOWS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

CONCERNS FOR AVIATION WILL BE DROPPING CIGS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
INTO TONIGHT. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO REACH THE AREA BETWEEN 23Z AND 01Z
TONIGHT AND SLOWLY DROP THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE HEAVIER PRECIP
ARRIVES AND THE THE LOWER LEVELS MOISTEN UP. EXPECT AIRFIELD MINIMUMS
FOR CIGS TO ARRIVE BY 12Z AND REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD AND RAIN AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES TO CHANGE TO SNOW WITH VIS
TO DROP BELOW 2 MILES AT TIMES. WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER








000
FXUS63 KJKL 251610
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1110 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1109 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

RECENT MODEL UPDATES CONTINUES TO BE MORE AND MORE CONSISTENT ON THE
PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE PRECIP ARRIVING THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
INTO TO MORROW MORNING WITH THE APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM. AS
SUCH...HAVE DECIDED TO UPDATE THE FORECAST AND PUT IN CATEGORICAL
POPS INTO THE FORECAST...ALSO TO BETTER MATCH UP WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES. AS WELL...ADJUSTED FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
CHALLENGING PORTION OF THE TEMP RANGE WILL BE LATE TONIGHT AS TEMPS
DROP WITH THE COLDER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA BUT AS MORNING
ARRIVES AND MINIMAL RADIATIONAL HEATING BEGINS FOR THE DAY...THE
VALLEYS WILL HAVE A ROUGH TIME WARMING UP IF NOT REMAINING STEADY
INTO THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER TERRAIN TEMPS WILL REMAIN STEADY OR DROP
THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW. WITH THESE
UPDATES...THE CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW IN SOME AREAS MAY BE A BIT
EARLIER AND MAY CHANGE SNOWFALL TOTALS. WILL REEVALUATE WITH THE
AFTERNOON UPDATES AND ARRIVAL OF THE 12Z MODEL RUNS BUT TOTALS LOOK
MUCH THE SAME AT THIS POINT WITH A NEEDED HIGHLIGHT OF SPS FOR NOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

IR SAT CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME HIGH CLOUDS SLOWLY PROGRESSING INTO
EASTERN KY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE TEMPS HAVE BEEN TRICKY WITH MANY
VALLEY LOCATIONS ABLE TO DECOUPLE THIS MORNING LEADING TO 10 DEGREE
SPLITS IN SOME CASES. FRESHENED UP GRIDS WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS
WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

IR SATELLITE INDICATES HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUING TO WORK
INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING. THIS IS BEING PROVIDED BY NEXT SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AND SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF THE MIDWEST. CLOUDS
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO PROGRESS INTO THE REGION AND HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME
RIDGE/VALLEY SPLITS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING.
AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTH AND BEGIN MOVING
INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIP WILL BE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. GIVEN
THAT LATEST RUNS SLOWED THIS SYSTEM A BIT OPTED TO LEAN THAT
DIRECTION WHICH WILL MATCH BETTER WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. ALSO
GIVEN DECENT WARM NOSE AHEAD OF THIS LOW DID UP MAX TEMPS TODAY A BIT
WHICH ALSO MATCHES BETTER WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND THIS ALSO
INTRODUCES A BIT WARMER TEMP CURVE INTO PORTIONS OF THIS EVENING.

THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
REGION...WHILE COLDER AIR WILL BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW MIXING OF RAIN AND SNOW TO
BEGIN OCCURRING MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY THIS WILL CHANGE
TO MOSTLY SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY. THIS
CHANGE OVER WILL OCCUR GENERALLY NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY. GIVEN THAT BETTER QPF DOES NOT COINCIDE WITH COLDER AIR
THINKING ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT AT THIS POINT. BEST
ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN 2000 FT AND
ABOVE WHERE A INCH OR MORE COULD OCCUR. MOVING INTO MONDAY WOULD
EXPECT MOST AREAS WILL BEGIN SEEING MORE UPSLOPE COMPONENT SNOW AS
MAIN LOW WILL BE EAST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS ENERGY TRANSFERS
TO DEVELOPING NOREASTER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN AFFECTING THE NATION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A DEEPENING CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY WITH THE GFS MORE ROBUST THAN THE
ECMWF. A STREAM OF ENERGY WILL FLOW NORTH NORTHWEST TO SOUTH
SOUTHEAST INTO THIS TROUGH AND RIGHT OVER EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE PATTERN BREAKS DOWN BY MIDDAY...THOUGH...AS
BROAD RIDGING PUSHES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST BRINGING RISING
HEIGHTS A NOTCH QUICKER IN FROM THE GFS AND GEM THAN THE ECMWF. THIS
RIDGING WILL BE SHORT LIVED DUE TO A NASCENT TROUGH TAKING SHAPE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THIS TROUGH BECOMES STRONGEST IN
THE ECMWF AS IT DIVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
LATER THURSDAY WHILE THE GFS AND GEM ARE COMPARATIVELY FAR WEAKER
AND ILL-DEFINED. IN FACT...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH CLOSES OFF AS IT
PASSES OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY MORNING ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF.
EVEN TRAILING THIS ROBUST WAVE...THE ECMWF BRINGS A PACKET OF ENERGY
THROUGH THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING WHILE ANOTHER STRONG...BUT
SHALLOW...TROUGH WORKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY EVENING.
MEANWHILE...A LARGE AND FAIRLY DEEP CLOSED LOW REIGNS OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWEST...NEAR THE BAJA PENINSULA...FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINTAINING SPLIT FLOW IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. THIS IS
A FAR CRY FROM THE BOLD PHASED STREAM FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN OHIO
VALLEY THAT THE GFS WAS TEASING US WITH SEVERAL RUNS AGO. ANYWAYS...
HAVE FAVORED A CONSENSUS FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE LEANING
SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE MORE AMPLIFIED ECMWF.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A DEEPENING COASTAL SYSTEM OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC SEABOARD AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED WITH A MOISTURE TRAIL
LEFT BEHIND OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY AND STRETCHED NORTHWEST TO A WEAK
SFC LOW IN THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE DEEPENING OF THIS COASTAL AND ITS
HUGGING OF THE COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SOME
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY THAT COULD LINGER FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING...THANKS ALSO TO THE SOME ADDED
LAKE MOISTURE. FOLLOWING THIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER AIR TO
THE STATE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER SFC LOW CROSSES THE
OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL MAKE FOR
ANOTHER RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SCENARIO FOR LATER THURSDAY THROUGH
MIDDAY FRIDAY AS YET ANOTHER COASTAL LOW PUNISHES THE MID ATLANTIC
AND COASTAL NEW ENGLAND STATES TO START THE WEEKEND. WHILE KENTUCKY
WILL SEEMINGLY BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS FOR SATURDAY...A SURGE OF ARCTIC
AIR IS LOOKING LIKE A BETTER BET FOR LATER THAT DAY AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME SNOW FOR THE AREA DESPITE LIMITED
MOISTURE. AGAIN THIS IS QUITE DIFFERENT FROM THE VERY SNOWY SOLUTION
FROM THE GFS A FEW RUNS AGO.

THE CR GRID LOAD ONCE AGAIN MADE FOR A GOOD STARTING POINT FOR THE
EXTENDED FORECAST WITH CHANGES MAINLY MADE TO BETTER REFLECT THE
LINGERING SNOW CHANCES TUESDAY PER THE EXPECTED UPSLOPE FETCH.
AGAIN...MADE SOME TYPICAL RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS
FOR LOWS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

SITES ARE VFR THIS MORNING AS IR SAT CONTINUES TO INDICATE MAINLY
HIGHER CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. MOST
SITES THAT SAW SOME INDICATIONS OF LIGHT FOG HAVE COME UP OVERNIGHT
TO P6SM...HOWEVER SOME VALLEY FOG CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THIS MORNING
WITH MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS ABLE TO DECOUPLE AND THIS HAS BEEN
ENHANCED BY PREVIOUS DAY SNOW. OTHERWISE FOCUS SHIFTS TO LOW PRESSURE
AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATER
TODAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN TO EASTERN KY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM NW TO SE. RIGHT NOW KEEPING SITES VFR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TRANSITIONING TO MVFR THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT THIS
PRECIP IS FORECAST TO BEGIN MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THIS COULD BRING AFFECTED SITES DOWN TO IFR
WITH LOWER CEILINGS AND VIS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...DJ









000
FXUS63 KJKL 251149
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
649 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 648 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

IR SAT CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME HIGH CLOUDS SLOWLY PROGRESSING INTO
EASTERN KY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE TEMPS HAVE BEEN TRICKY WITH MANY
VALLEY LOCATIONS ABLE TO DECOUPLE THIS MORNING LEADING TO 10 DEGREE
SPLITS IN SOME CASES. FRESHENED UP GRIDS WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS
WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

IR SATELLITE INDICATES HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUING TO WORK
INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING. THIS IS BEING PROVIDED BY NEXT SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AND SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF THE MIDWEST. CLOUDS
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO PROGRESS INTO THE REGION AND HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME
RIDGE/VALLEY SPLITS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING.
AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTH AND BEGIN MOVING
INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIP WILL BE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. GIVEN
THAT LATEST RUNS SLOWED THIS SYSTEM A BIT OPTED TO LEAN THAT
DIRECTION WHICH WILL MATCH BETTER WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. ALSO
GIVEN DECENT WARM NOSE AHEAD OF THIS LOW DID UP MAX TEMPS TODAY A BIT
WHICH ALSO MATCHES BETTER WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND THIS ALSO
INTRODUCES A BIT WARMER TEMP CURVE INTO PORTIONS OF THIS EVENING.

THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
REGION...WHILE COLDER AIR WILL BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW MIXING OF RAIN AND SNOW TO
BEGIN OCCURRING MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY THIS WILL CHANGE
TO MOSTLY SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY. THIS
CHANGE OVER WILL OCCUR GENERALLY NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY. GIVEN THAT BETTER QPF DOES NOT COINCIDE WITH COLDER AIR
THINKING ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT AT THIS POINT. BEST
ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN 2000 FT AND
ABOVE WHERE A INCH OR MORE COULD OCCUR. MOVING INTO MONDAY WOULD
EXPECT MOST AREAS WILL BEGIN SEEING MORE UPSLOPE COMPONENT SNOW AS
MAIN LOW WILL BE EAST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS ENERGY TRANSFERS
TO DEVELOPING NOREASTER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN AFFECTING THE NATION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A DEEPENING CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY WITH THE GFS MORE ROBUST THAN THE
ECMWF. A STREAM OF ENERGY WILL FLOW NORTH NORTHWEST TO SOUTH
SOUTHEAST INTO THIS TROUGH AND RIGHT OVER EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE PATTERN BREAKS DOWN BY MIDDAY...THOUGH...AS
BROAD RIDGING PUSHES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST BRINGING RISING
HEIGHTS A NOTCH QUICKER IN FROM THE GFS AND GEM THAN THE ECMWF. THIS
RIDGING WILL BE SHORT LIVED DUE TO A NASCENT TROUGH TAKING SHAPE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THIS TROUGH BECOMES STRONGEST IN
THE ECMWF AS IT DIVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
LATER THURSDAY WHILE THE GFS AND GEM ARE COMPARATIVELY FAR WEAKER
AND ILL-DEFINED. IN FACT...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH CLOSES OFF AS IT
PASSES OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY MORNING ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF.
EVEN TRAILING THIS ROBUST WAVE...THE ECMWF BRINGS A PACKET OF ENERGY
THROUGH THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING WHILE ANOTHER STRONG...BUT
SHALLOW...TROUGH WORKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY EVENING.
MEANWHILE...A LARGE AND FAIRLY DEEP CLOSED LOW REIGNS OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWEST...NEAR THE BAJA PENINSULA...FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINTAINING SPLIT FLOW IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. THIS IS
A FAR CRY FROM THE BOLD PHASED STREAM FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN OHIO
VALLEY THAT THE GFS WAS TEASING US WITH SEVERAL RUNS AGO. ANYWAYS...
HAVE FAVORED A CONSENSUS FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE LEANING
SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE MORE AMPLIFIED ECMWF.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A DEEPENING COASTAL SYSTEM OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC SEABOARD AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED WITH A MOISTURE TRAIL
LEFT BEHIND OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY AND STRETCHED NORTHWEST TO A WEAK
SFC LOW IN THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE DEEPENING OF THIS COASTAL AND ITS
HUGGING OF THE COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SOME
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY THAT COULD LINGER FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING...THANKS ALSO TO THE SOME ADDED
LAKE MOISTURE. FOLLOWING THIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER AIR TO
THE STATE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER SFC LOW CROSSES THE
OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL MAKE FOR
ANOTHER RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SCENARIO FOR LATER THURSDAY THROUGH
MIDDAY FRIDAY AS YET ANOTHER COASTAL LOW PUNISHES THE MID ATLANTIC
AND COASTAL NEW ENGLAND STATES TO START THE WEEKEND. WHILE KENTUCKY
WILL SEEMINGLY BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS FOR SATURDAY...A SURGE OF ARCTIC
AIR IS LOOKING LIKE A BETTER BET FOR LATER THAT DAY AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME SNOW FOR THE AREA DESPITE LIMITED
MOISTURE. AGAIN THIS IS QUITE DIFFERENT FROM THE VERY SNOWY SOLUTION
FROM THE GFS A FEW RUNS AGO.

THE CR GRID LOAD ONCE AGAIN MADE FOR A GOOD STARTING POINT FOR THE
EXTENDED FORECAST WITH CHANGES MAINLY MADE TO BETTER REFLECT THE
LINGERING SNOW CHANCES TUESDAY PER THE EXPECTED UPSLOPE FETCH.
AGAIN...MADE SOME TYPICAL RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS
FOR LOWS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

SITES ARE VFR THIS MORNING AS IR SAT CONTINUES TO INDICATE MAINLY
HIGHER CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. MOST
SITES THAT SAW SOME INDICATIONS OF LIGHT FOG HAVE COME UP OVERNIGHT
TO P6SM...HOWEVER SOME VALLEY FOG CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THIS MORNING
WITH MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS ABLE TO DECOUPLE AND THIS HAS BEEN
ENHANCED BY PREVIOUS DAY SNOW. OTHERWISE FOCUS SHIFTS TO LOW PRESSURE
AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATER
TODAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN TO EASTERN KY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM NW TO SE. RIGHT NOW KEEPING SITES VFR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TRANSITIONING TO MVFR THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT THIS
PRECIP IS FORECAST TO BEGIN MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THIS COULD BRING AFFECTED SITES DOWN TO IFR
WITH LOWER CEILINGS AND VIS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...DJ








000
FXUS63 KJKL 251149
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
649 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 648 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

IR SAT CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME HIGH CLOUDS SLOWLY PROGRESSING INTO
EASTERN KY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE TEMPS HAVE BEEN TRICKY WITH MANY
VALLEY LOCATIONS ABLE TO DECOUPLE THIS MORNING LEADING TO 10 DEGREE
SPLITS IN SOME CASES. FRESHENED UP GRIDS WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS
WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

IR SATELLITE INDICATES HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUING TO WORK
INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING. THIS IS BEING PROVIDED BY NEXT SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AND SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF THE MIDWEST. CLOUDS
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO PROGRESS INTO THE REGION AND HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME
RIDGE/VALLEY SPLITS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING.
AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTH AND BEGIN MOVING
INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIP WILL BE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. GIVEN
THAT LATEST RUNS SLOWED THIS SYSTEM A BIT OPTED TO LEAN THAT
DIRECTION WHICH WILL MATCH BETTER WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. ALSO
GIVEN DECENT WARM NOSE AHEAD OF THIS LOW DID UP MAX TEMPS TODAY A BIT
WHICH ALSO MATCHES BETTER WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND THIS ALSO
INTRODUCES A BIT WARMER TEMP CURVE INTO PORTIONS OF THIS EVENING.

THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
REGION...WHILE COLDER AIR WILL BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW MIXING OF RAIN AND SNOW TO
BEGIN OCCURRING MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY THIS WILL CHANGE
TO MOSTLY SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY. THIS
CHANGE OVER WILL OCCUR GENERALLY NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY. GIVEN THAT BETTER QPF DOES NOT COINCIDE WITH COLDER AIR
THINKING ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT AT THIS POINT. BEST
ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN 2000 FT AND
ABOVE WHERE A INCH OR MORE COULD OCCUR. MOVING INTO MONDAY WOULD
EXPECT MOST AREAS WILL BEGIN SEEING MORE UPSLOPE COMPONENT SNOW AS
MAIN LOW WILL BE EAST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS ENERGY TRANSFERS
TO DEVELOPING NOREASTER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN AFFECTING THE NATION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A DEEPENING CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY WITH THE GFS MORE ROBUST THAN THE
ECMWF. A STREAM OF ENERGY WILL FLOW NORTH NORTHWEST TO SOUTH
SOUTHEAST INTO THIS TROUGH AND RIGHT OVER EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE PATTERN BREAKS DOWN BY MIDDAY...THOUGH...AS
BROAD RIDGING PUSHES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST BRINGING RISING
HEIGHTS A NOTCH QUICKER IN FROM THE GFS AND GEM THAN THE ECMWF. THIS
RIDGING WILL BE SHORT LIVED DUE TO A NASCENT TROUGH TAKING SHAPE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THIS TROUGH BECOMES STRONGEST IN
THE ECMWF AS IT DIVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
LATER THURSDAY WHILE THE GFS AND GEM ARE COMPARATIVELY FAR WEAKER
AND ILL-DEFINED. IN FACT...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH CLOSES OFF AS IT
PASSES OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY MORNING ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF.
EVEN TRAILING THIS ROBUST WAVE...THE ECMWF BRINGS A PACKET OF ENERGY
THROUGH THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING WHILE ANOTHER STRONG...BUT
SHALLOW...TROUGH WORKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY EVENING.
MEANWHILE...A LARGE AND FAIRLY DEEP CLOSED LOW REIGNS OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWEST...NEAR THE BAJA PENINSULA...FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINTAINING SPLIT FLOW IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. THIS IS
A FAR CRY FROM THE BOLD PHASED STREAM FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN OHIO
VALLEY THAT THE GFS WAS TEASING US WITH SEVERAL RUNS AGO. ANYWAYS...
HAVE FAVORED A CONSENSUS FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE LEANING
SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE MORE AMPLIFIED ECMWF.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A DEEPENING COASTAL SYSTEM OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC SEABOARD AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED WITH A MOISTURE TRAIL
LEFT BEHIND OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY AND STRETCHED NORTHWEST TO A WEAK
SFC LOW IN THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE DEEPENING OF THIS COASTAL AND ITS
HUGGING OF THE COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SOME
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY THAT COULD LINGER FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING...THANKS ALSO TO THE SOME ADDED
LAKE MOISTURE. FOLLOWING THIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER AIR TO
THE STATE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER SFC LOW CROSSES THE
OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL MAKE FOR
ANOTHER RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SCENARIO FOR LATER THURSDAY THROUGH
MIDDAY FRIDAY AS YET ANOTHER COASTAL LOW PUNISHES THE MID ATLANTIC
AND COASTAL NEW ENGLAND STATES TO START THE WEEKEND. WHILE KENTUCKY
WILL SEEMINGLY BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS FOR SATURDAY...A SURGE OF ARCTIC
AIR IS LOOKING LIKE A BETTER BET FOR LATER THAT DAY AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME SNOW FOR THE AREA DESPITE LIMITED
MOISTURE. AGAIN THIS IS QUITE DIFFERENT FROM THE VERY SNOWY SOLUTION
FROM THE GFS A FEW RUNS AGO.

THE CR GRID LOAD ONCE AGAIN MADE FOR A GOOD STARTING POINT FOR THE
EXTENDED FORECAST WITH CHANGES MAINLY MADE TO BETTER REFLECT THE
LINGERING SNOW CHANCES TUESDAY PER THE EXPECTED UPSLOPE FETCH.
AGAIN...MADE SOME TYPICAL RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS
FOR LOWS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

SITES ARE VFR THIS MORNING AS IR SAT CONTINUES TO INDICATE MAINLY
HIGHER CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. MOST
SITES THAT SAW SOME INDICATIONS OF LIGHT FOG HAVE COME UP OVERNIGHT
TO P6SM...HOWEVER SOME VALLEY FOG CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THIS MORNING
WITH MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS ABLE TO DECOUPLE AND THIS HAS BEEN
ENHANCED BY PREVIOUS DAY SNOW. OTHERWISE FOCUS SHIFTS TO LOW PRESSURE
AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATER
TODAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN TO EASTERN KY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM NW TO SE. RIGHT NOW KEEPING SITES VFR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TRANSITIONING TO MVFR THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT THIS
PRECIP IS FORECAST TO BEGIN MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THIS COULD BRING AFFECTED SITES DOWN TO IFR
WITH LOWER CEILINGS AND VIS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...DJ







000
FXUS63 KJKL 251133
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
633 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

IR SATELLITE INDICATES HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUING TO WORK
INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING. THIS IS BEING PROVIDED BY NEXT SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AND SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF THE MIDWEST. CLOUDS
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO PROGRESS INTO THE REGION AND HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME
RIDGE/VALLEY SPLITS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING.
AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTH AND BEGIN MOVING
INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIP WILL BE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. GIVEN
THAT LATEST RUNS SLOWED THIS SYSTEM A BIT OPTED TO LEAN THAT
DIRECTION WHICH WILL MATCH BETTER WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. ALSO
GIVEN DECENT WARM NOSE AHEAD OF THIS LOW DID UP MAX TEMPS TODAY A BIT
WHICH ALSO MATCHES BETTER WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND THIS ALSO
INTRODUCES A BIT WARMER TEMP CURVE INTO PORTIONS OF THIS EVENING.

THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
REGION...WHILE COLDER AIR WILL BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW MIXING OF RAIN AND SNOW TO
BEGIN OCCURRING MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY THIS WILL CHANGE
TO MOSTLY SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY. THIS
CHANGE OVER WILL OCCUR GENERALLY NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY. GIVEN THAT BETTER QPF DOES NOT COINCIDE WITH COLDER AIR
THINKING ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT AT THIS POINT. BEST
ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN 2000 FT AND
ABOVE WHERE A INCH OR MORE COULD OCCUR. MOVING INTO MONDAY WOULD
EXPECT MOST AREAS WILL BEGIN SEEING MORE UPSLOPE COMPONENT SNOW AS
MAIN LOW WILL BE EAST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS ENERGY TRANSFERS
TO DEVELOPING NOREASTER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN AFFECTING THE NATION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A DEEPENING CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY WITH THE GFS MORE ROBUST THAN THE
ECMWF. A STREAM OF ENERGY WILL FLOW NORTH NORTHWEST TO SOUTH
SOUTHEAST INTO THIS TROUGH AND RIGHT OVER EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE PATTERN BREAKS DOWN BY MIDDAY...THOUGH...AS
BROAD RIDGING PUSHES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST BRINGING RISING
HEIGHTS A NOTCH QUICKER IN FROM THE GFS AND GEM THAN THE ECMWF. THIS
RIDGING WILL BE SHORT LIVED DUE TO A NASCENT TROUGH TAKING SHAPE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THIS TROUGH BECOMES STRONGEST IN
THE ECMWF AS IT DIVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
LATER THURSDAY WHILE THE GFS AND GEM ARE COMPARATIVELY FAR WEAKER
AND ILL-DEFINED. IN FACT...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH CLOSES OFF AS IT
PASSES OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY MORNING ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF.
EVEN TRAILING THIS ROBUST WAVE...THE ECMWF BRINGS A PACKET OF ENERGY
THROUGH THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING WHILE ANOTHER STRONG...BUT
SHALLOW...TROUGH WORKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY EVENING.
MEANWHILE...A LARGE AND FAIRLY DEEP CLOSED LOW REIGNS OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWEST...NEAR THE BAJA PENINSULA...FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINTAINING SPLIT FLOW IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. THIS IS
A FAR CRY FROM THE BOLD PHASED STREAM FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN OHIO
VALLEY THAT THE GFS WAS TEASING US WITH SEVERAL RUNS AGO. ANYWAYS...
HAVE FAVORED A CONSENSUS FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE LEANING
SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE MORE AMPLIFIED ECMWF.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A DEEPENING COASTAL SYSTEM OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC SEABOARD AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED WITH A MOISTURE TRAIL
LEFT BEHIND OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY AND STRETCHED NORTHWEST TO A WEAK
SFC LOW IN THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE DEEPENING OF THIS COASTAL AND ITS
HUGGING OF THE COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SOME
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY THAT COULD LINGER FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING...THANKS ALSO TO THE SOME ADDED
LAKE MOISTURE. FOLLOWING THIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER AIR TO
THE STATE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER SFC LOW CROSSES THE
OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL MAKE FOR
ANOTHER RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SCENARIO FOR LATER THURSDAY THROUGH
MIDDAY FRIDAY AS YET ANOTHER COASTAL LOW PUNISHES THE MID ATLANTIC
AND COASTAL NEW ENGLAND STATES TO START THE WEEKEND. WHILE KENTUCKY
WILL SEEMINGLY BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS FOR SATURDAY...A SURGE OF ARCTIC
AIR IS LOOKING LIKE A BETTER BET FOR LATER THAT DAY AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME SNOW FOR THE AREA DESPITE LIMITED
MOISTURE. AGAIN THIS IS QUITE DIFFERENT FROM THE VERY SNOWY SOLUTION
FROM THE GFS A FEW RUNS AGO.

THE CR GRID LOAD ONCE AGAIN MADE FOR A GOOD STARTING POINT FOR THE
EXTENDED FORECAST WITH CHANGES MAINLY MADE TO BETTER REFLECT THE
LINGERING SNOW CHANCES TUESDAY PER THE EXPECTED UPSLOPE FETCH.
AGAIN...MADE SOME TYPICAL RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS
FOR LOWS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

SITES ARE VFR THIS MORNING AS IR SAT CONTINUES TO INDICATE MAINLY
HIGHER CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. MOST
SITES THAT SAW SOME INDICATIONS OF LIGHT FOG HAVE COME UP OVERNIGHT
TO P6SM...HOWEVER SOME VALLEY FOG CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THIS MORNING
WITH MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS ABLE TO DECOUPLE AND THIS HAS BEEN
ENHANCED BY PREVIOUS DAY SNOW. OTHERWISE FOCUS SHIFTS TO LOW PRESSURE
AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATER
TODAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN TO EASTERN KY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM NW TO SE. RIGHT NOW KEEPING SITES VFR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TRANSITIONING TO MVFR THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT THIS
PRECIP IS FORECAST TO BEGIN MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THIS COULD BRING AFFECTED SITES DOWN TO IFR
WITH LOWER CEILINGS AND VIS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...DJ







000
FXUS63 KJKL 251133
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
633 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

IR SATELLITE INDICATES HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUING TO WORK
INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING. THIS IS BEING PROVIDED BY NEXT SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AND SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF THE MIDWEST. CLOUDS
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO PROGRESS INTO THE REGION AND HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME
RIDGE/VALLEY SPLITS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING.
AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTH AND BEGIN MOVING
INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIP WILL BE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. GIVEN
THAT LATEST RUNS SLOWED THIS SYSTEM A BIT OPTED TO LEAN THAT
DIRECTION WHICH WILL MATCH BETTER WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. ALSO
GIVEN DECENT WARM NOSE AHEAD OF THIS LOW DID UP MAX TEMPS TODAY A BIT
WHICH ALSO MATCHES BETTER WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND THIS ALSO
INTRODUCES A BIT WARMER TEMP CURVE INTO PORTIONS OF THIS EVENING.

THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
REGION...WHILE COLDER AIR WILL BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW MIXING OF RAIN AND SNOW TO
BEGIN OCCURRING MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY THIS WILL CHANGE
TO MOSTLY SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY. THIS
CHANGE OVER WILL OCCUR GENERALLY NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY. GIVEN THAT BETTER QPF DOES NOT COINCIDE WITH COLDER AIR
THINKING ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT AT THIS POINT. BEST
ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN 2000 FT AND
ABOVE WHERE A INCH OR MORE COULD OCCUR. MOVING INTO MONDAY WOULD
EXPECT MOST AREAS WILL BEGIN SEEING MORE UPSLOPE COMPONENT SNOW AS
MAIN LOW WILL BE EAST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS ENERGY TRANSFERS
TO DEVELOPING NOREASTER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN AFFECTING THE NATION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A DEEPENING CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY WITH THE GFS MORE ROBUST THAN THE
ECMWF. A STREAM OF ENERGY WILL FLOW NORTH NORTHWEST TO SOUTH
SOUTHEAST INTO THIS TROUGH AND RIGHT OVER EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE PATTERN BREAKS DOWN BY MIDDAY...THOUGH...AS
BROAD RIDGING PUSHES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST BRINGING RISING
HEIGHTS A NOTCH QUICKER IN FROM THE GFS AND GEM THAN THE ECMWF. THIS
RIDGING WILL BE SHORT LIVED DUE TO A NASCENT TROUGH TAKING SHAPE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THIS TROUGH BECOMES STRONGEST IN
THE ECMWF AS IT DIVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
LATER THURSDAY WHILE THE GFS AND GEM ARE COMPARATIVELY FAR WEAKER
AND ILL-DEFINED. IN FACT...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH CLOSES OFF AS IT
PASSES OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY MORNING ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF.
EVEN TRAILING THIS ROBUST WAVE...THE ECMWF BRINGS A PACKET OF ENERGY
THROUGH THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING WHILE ANOTHER STRONG...BUT
SHALLOW...TROUGH WORKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY EVENING.
MEANWHILE...A LARGE AND FAIRLY DEEP CLOSED LOW REIGNS OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWEST...NEAR THE BAJA PENINSULA...FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINTAINING SPLIT FLOW IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. THIS IS
A FAR CRY FROM THE BOLD PHASED STREAM FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN OHIO
VALLEY THAT THE GFS WAS TEASING US WITH SEVERAL RUNS AGO. ANYWAYS...
HAVE FAVORED A CONSENSUS FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE LEANING
SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE MORE AMPLIFIED ECMWF.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A DEEPENING COASTAL SYSTEM OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC SEABOARD AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED WITH A MOISTURE TRAIL
LEFT BEHIND OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY AND STRETCHED NORTHWEST TO A WEAK
SFC LOW IN THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE DEEPENING OF THIS COASTAL AND ITS
HUGGING OF THE COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SOME
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY THAT COULD LINGER FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING...THANKS ALSO TO THE SOME ADDED
LAKE MOISTURE. FOLLOWING THIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER AIR TO
THE STATE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER SFC LOW CROSSES THE
OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL MAKE FOR
ANOTHER RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SCENARIO FOR LATER THURSDAY THROUGH
MIDDAY FRIDAY AS YET ANOTHER COASTAL LOW PUNISHES THE MID ATLANTIC
AND COASTAL NEW ENGLAND STATES TO START THE WEEKEND. WHILE KENTUCKY
WILL SEEMINGLY BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS FOR SATURDAY...A SURGE OF ARCTIC
AIR IS LOOKING LIKE A BETTER BET FOR LATER THAT DAY AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME SNOW FOR THE AREA DESPITE LIMITED
MOISTURE. AGAIN THIS IS QUITE DIFFERENT FROM THE VERY SNOWY SOLUTION
FROM THE GFS A FEW RUNS AGO.

THE CR GRID LOAD ONCE AGAIN MADE FOR A GOOD STARTING POINT FOR THE
EXTENDED FORECAST WITH CHANGES MAINLY MADE TO BETTER REFLECT THE
LINGERING SNOW CHANCES TUESDAY PER THE EXPECTED UPSLOPE FETCH.
AGAIN...MADE SOME TYPICAL RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS
FOR LOWS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

SITES ARE VFR THIS MORNING AS IR SAT CONTINUES TO INDICATE MAINLY
HIGHER CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. MOST
SITES THAT SAW SOME INDICATIONS OF LIGHT FOG HAVE COME UP OVERNIGHT
TO P6SM...HOWEVER SOME VALLEY FOG CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THIS MORNING
WITH MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS ABLE TO DECOUPLE AND THIS HAS BEEN
ENHANCED BY PREVIOUS DAY SNOW. OTHERWISE FOCUS SHIFTS TO LOW PRESSURE
AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATER
TODAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN TO EASTERN KY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM NW TO SE. RIGHT NOW KEEPING SITES VFR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TRANSITIONING TO MVFR THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT THIS
PRECIP IS FORECAST TO BEGIN MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THIS COULD BRING AFFECTED SITES DOWN TO IFR
WITH LOWER CEILINGS AND VIS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...DJ








000
FXUS63 KJKL 250925 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
425 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

IR SATELLITE INDICATES HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUING TO WORK
INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING. THIS IS BEING PROVIDED BY NEXT SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AND SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF THE MIDWEST. CLOUDS
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO PROGRESS INTO THE REGION AND HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME
RIDGE/VALLEY SPLITS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING.
AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTH AND BEGIN MOVING
INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIP WILL BE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. GIVEN
THAT LATEST RUNS SLOWED THIS SYSTEM A BIT OPTED TO LEAN THAT
DIRECTION WHICH WILL MATCH BETTER WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. ALSO
GIVEN DECENT WARM NOSE AHEAD OF THIS LOW DID UP MAX TEMPS TODAY A BIT
WHICH ALSO MATCHES BETTER WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND THIS ALSO
INTRODUCES A BIT WARMER TEMP CURVE INTO PORTIONS OF THIS EVENING.

THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
REGION...WHILE COLDER AIR WILL BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW MIXING OF RAIN AND SNOW TO
BEGIN OCCURRING MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY THIS WILL CHANGE
TO MOSTLY SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY. THIS
CHANGE OVER WILL OCCUR GENERALLY NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY. GIVEN THAT BETTER QPF DOES NOT COINCIDE WITH COLDER AIR
THINKING ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT AT THIS POINT. BEST
ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN 2000 FT AND
ABOVE WHERE A INCH OR MORE COULD OCCUR. MOVING INTO MONDAY WOULD
EXPECT MOST AREAS WILL BEGIN SEEING MORE UPSLOPE COMPONENT SNOW AS
MAIN LOW WILL BE EAST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS ENERGY TRANSFERS
TO DEVELOPING NOREASTER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN AFFECTING THE NATION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A DEEPENING CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY WITH THE GFS MORE ROBUST THAN THE
ECMWF. A STREAM OF ENERGY WILL FLOW NORTH NORTHWEST TO SOUTH
SOUTHEAST INTO THIS TROUGH AND RIGHT OVER EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE PATTERN BREAKS DOWN BY MIDDAY...THOUGH...AS
BROAD RIDGING PUSHES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST BRINGING RISING
HEIGHTS A NOTCH QUICKER IN FROM THE GFS AND GEM THAN THE ECMWF. THIS
RIDGING WILL BE SHORT LIVED DUE TO A NASCENT TROUGH TAKING SHAPE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THIS TROUGH BECOMES STRONGEST IN
THE ECMWF AS IT DIVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
LATER THURSDAY WHILE THE GFS AND GEM ARE COMPARATIVELY FAR WEAKER
AND ILL-DEFINED. IN FACT...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH CLOSES OFF AS IT
PASSES OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY MORNING ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF.
EVEN TRAILING THIS ROBUST WAVE...THE ECMWF BRINGS A PACKET OF ENERGY
THROUGH THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING WHILE ANOTHER STRONG...BUT
SHALLOW...TROUGH WORKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY EVENING.
MEANWHILE...A LARGE AND FAIRLY DEEP CLOSED LOW REIGNS OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWEST...NEAR THE BAJA PENINSULA...FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINTAINING SPLIT FLOW IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. THIS IS
A FAR CRY FROM THE BOLD PHASED STREAM FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN OHIO
VALLEY THAT THE GFS WAS TEASING US WITH SEVERAL RUNS AGO. ANYWAYS...
HAVE FAVORED A CONSENSUS FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE LEANING
SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE MORE AMPLIFIED ECMWF.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A DEEPENING COASTAL SYSTEM OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC SEABOARD AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED WITH A MOISTURE TRAIL
LEFT BEHIND OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY AND STRETCHED NORTHWEST TO A WEAK
SFC LOW IN THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE DEEPENING OF THIS COASTAL AND ITS
HUGGING OF THE COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SOME
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY THAT COULD LINGER FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING...THANKS ALSO TO THE SOME ADDED
LAKE MOISTURE. FOLLOWING THIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER AIR TO
THE STATE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER SFC LOW CROSSES THE
OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL MAKE FOR
ANOTHER RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SCENARIO FOR LATER THURSDAY THROUGH
MIDDAY FRIDAY AS YET ANOTHER COASTAL LOW PUNISHES THE MID ATLANTIC
AND COASTAL NEW ENGLAND STATES TO START THE WEEKEND. WHILE KENTUCKY
WILL SEEMINGLY BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS FOR SATURDAY...A SURGE OF ARCTIC
AIR IS LOOKING LIKE A BETTER BET FOR LATER THAT DAY AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME SNOW FOR THE AREA DESPITE LIMITED
MOISTURE. AGAIN THIS IS QUITE DIFFERENT FROM THE VERY SNOWY SOLUTION
FROM THE GFS A FEW RUNS AGO.

THE CR GRID LOAD ONCE AGAIN MADE FOR A GOOD STARTING POINT FOR THE
EXTENDED FORECAST WITH CHANGES MAINLY MADE TO BETTER REFLECT THE
LINGERING SNOW CHANCES TUESDAY PER THE EXPECTED UPSLOPE FETCH.
AGAIN...MADE SOME TYPICAL RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS
FOR LOWS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

MOST SITES ARE SEEING GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT...BUT MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES COUPLED WITH SNOW SEEN YESTERDAY IS ALLOWING FOR A SOME
PATCHY FOG MAINLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. THAT SAID WE ARE SEEING SOME
SITES WITH VIS RUNNING AT OR NEAR MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. RIGHT NOW
WILL KEEP TAF SITES AT VFR...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE SEE
SOME BRIEF LOWERING TO MVFR VIS. SYM AND SJS HAVE SEEN SCT TO BKN MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECK STILL STREAMING ACROSS THOSE SITES THIS HOUR. MOST
OF THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OUT OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.
OTHERWISE MOST SITES WILL SEE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AHEAD
OF NEXT SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY. PRECIP WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH CIGS
CONTINUING TO LOWER AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...DJ






000
FXUS63 KJKL 250841
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
341 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

IR SATELLITE INDICATES HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUING TO WORK
INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING. THIS IS BEING PROVIDED BY NEXT SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AND SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF THE MIDWEST. CLOUDS
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO PROGRESS INTO THE REGION AND HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME
RIDGE/VALLEY SPLITS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING.
AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTH AND BEGIN MOVING
INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIP WILL BE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. GIVEN
THAT LATEST RUNS SLOWED THIS SYSTEM A BIT OPTED TO LEAN THAT
DIRECTION WHICH WILL MATCH BETTER WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. ALSO
GIVEN DECENT WARM NOSE AHEAD OF THIS LOW DID UP MAX TEMPS TODAY A BIT
WHICH ALSO MATCHES BETTER WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND THIS ALSO
INTRODUCES A BIT WARMER TEMP CURVE INTO PORTIONS OF THIS EVENING.

THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
REGION...WHILE COLDER AIR WILL BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW MIXING OF RAIN AND SNOW TO
BEGIN OCCURRING MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY THIS WILL CHANGE
TO MOSTLY SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY. THIS
CHANGE OVER WILL OCCUR GENERALLY NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY. GIVEN THAT BETTER QPF DOES NOT COINCIDE WITH COLDER AIR
THINKING ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT AT THIS POINT. BEST
ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN 2000 FT AND
ABOVE WHERE A INCH OR MORE COULD OCCUR. MOVING INTO MONDAY WOULD
EXPECT MOST AREAS WILL BEGIN SEEING MORE UPSLOPE COMPONENT SNOW AS
MAIN LOW WILL BE EAST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS ENERGY TRANSFERS
TO DEVELOPING NOREASTER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

A RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS
WERE IN GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE FORECAST WAS KEPT VERY
CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND. AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM EASTERN CANADA INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND EASTERN SEABOARD. MEANWHILE A RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM MEXICO NORTH INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
LEAD TO NW FLOW ALOFT INITIALLY WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES EXPECTED
TO DROP DOWN ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION AND APPALACHIANS. THE
TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
BY MIDWEEK...WITH THE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST TO THE PLAINS STATES AND
EVENTUALLY OH VALLEY REGION. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE
RIDGE AND A TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT
OVER THE PLAINS AT MIDWEEK AND THE RESULTING TROUGH SHOULD DAMPEN
THE RIDGE AND APPROACH THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY REGION ON THU INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH OF
THE OH RIVER AND THEN INTO THE NORTHEAST OR MID ATLANTIC STATES.
THIS WOULD BRING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS EAST KY ON THU TO THU
EVENING.

FROM FRI INTO SATURDAY..THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR SOME FLATTENING
OF THE FLOW AT LEAST BRIEFLY FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS
THOUGH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

THE SHORTWAVES IN NW FLOW SHOULD BRING AT LEAST PERIODS OF CLOUDS OR
PROLONG CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINING
AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR THE MON
NIGHT TO TUE PERIOD WITH THE 12Z GFS RECENT NAM RUNS ARE ALSO MORE
MOIST THE 12Z ECMWF. SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AS WELL AS SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY DURING DAYTIME HEATING ON TUE
WHICH WOULD STEEPEN LAPSE RATES. ANY SNOW SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE AT
LEAST SOME LOCALIZED LIGHT AMOUNTS MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. FOR
POPS DURING THIS PERIOD...WENT A BIT HIGHER THAN THE MODEL BLEND
CLOSER TO PERSISTENCE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BRIEFLY AT MIDWEEK.

FOR LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU...AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION
WETBULBING COULD LEAD TO A MIX WITH SNOW DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY IT
ARRIVES. HOWEVER...ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN
AS MOSTLY IF NOT ENTIRELY RAIN UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR TUE INTO WED...BUT THEN
MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL ON THU IN BETWEEN SYSTEM UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WEAK RIDGING. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND COLD
FRONT...TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

MOST SITES ARE SEEING GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT...BUT MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES COUPLED WITH SNOW SEEN YESTERDAY IS ALLOWING FOR A SOME
PATCHY FOG MAINLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. THAT SAID WE ARE SEEING SOME
SITES WITH VIS RUNNING AT OR NEAR MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. RIGHT NOW
WILL KEEP TAF SITES AT VFR...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE SEE
SOME BRIEF LOWERING TO MVFR VIS. SYM AND SJS HAVE SEEN SCT TO BKN MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECK STILL STREAMING ACROSS THOSE SITES THIS HOUR. MOST
OF THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OUT OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.
OTHERWISE MOST SITES WILL SEE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AHEAD
OF NEXT SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY. PRECIP WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH CIGS
CONTINUING TO LOWER AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DJ







000
FXUS63 KJKL 250841
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
341 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

IR SATELLITE INDICATES HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUING TO WORK
INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING. THIS IS BEING PROVIDED BY NEXT SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AND SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF THE MIDWEST. CLOUDS
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO PROGRESS INTO THE REGION AND HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME
RIDGE/VALLEY SPLITS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING.
AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTH AND BEGIN MOVING
INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIP WILL BE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. GIVEN
THAT LATEST RUNS SLOWED THIS SYSTEM A BIT OPTED TO LEAN THAT
DIRECTION WHICH WILL MATCH BETTER WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. ALSO
GIVEN DECENT WARM NOSE AHEAD OF THIS LOW DID UP MAX TEMPS TODAY A BIT
WHICH ALSO MATCHES BETTER WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND THIS ALSO
INTRODUCES A BIT WARMER TEMP CURVE INTO PORTIONS OF THIS EVENING.

THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
REGION...WHILE COLDER AIR WILL BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW MIXING OF RAIN AND SNOW TO
BEGIN OCCURRING MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY THIS WILL CHANGE
TO MOSTLY SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY. THIS
CHANGE OVER WILL OCCUR GENERALLY NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY. GIVEN THAT BETTER QPF DOES NOT COINCIDE WITH COLDER AIR
THINKING ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT AT THIS POINT. BEST
ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN 2000 FT AND
ABOVE WHERE A INCH OR MORE COULD OCCUR. MOVING INTO MONDAY WOULD
EXPECT MOST AREAS WILL BEGIN SEEING MORE UPSLOPE COMPONENT SNOW AS
MAIN LOW WILL BE EAST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS ENERGY TRANSFERS
TO DEVELOPING NOREASTER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

A RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS
WERE IN GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE FORECAST WAS KEPT VERY
CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND. AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM EASTERN CANADA INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND EASTERN SEABOARD. MEANWHILE A RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM MEXICO NORTH INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
LEAD TO NW FLOW ALOFT INITIALLY WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES EXPECTED
TO DROP DOWN ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION AND APPALACHIANS. THE
TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
BY MIDWEEK...WITH THE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST TO THE PLAINS STATES AND
EVENTUALLY OH VALLEY REGION. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE
RIDGE AND A TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT
OVER THE PLAINS AT MIDWEEK AND THE RESULTING TROUGH SHOULD DAMPEN
THE RIDGE AND APPROACH THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY REGION ON THU INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH OF
THE OH RIVER AND THEN INTO THE NORTHEAST OR MID ATLANTIC STATES.
THIS WOULD BRING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS EAST KY ON THU TO THU
EVENING.

FROM FRI INTO SATURDAY..THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR SOME FLATTENING
OF THE FLOW AT LEAST BRIEFLY FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS
THOUGH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

THE SHORTWAVES IN NW FLOW SHOULD BRING AT LEAST PERIODS OF CLOUDS OR
PROLONG CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINING
AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR THE MON
NIGHT TO TUE PERIOD WITH THE 12Z GFS RECENT NAM RUNS ARE ALSO MORE
MOIST THE 12Z ECMWF. SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AS WELL AS SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY DURING DAYTIME HEATING ON TUE
WHICH WOULD STEEPEN LAPSE RATES. ANY SNOW SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE AT
LEAST SOME LOCALIZED LIGHT AMOUNTS MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. FOR
POPS DURING THIS PERIOD...WENT A BIT HIGHER THAN THE MODEL BLEND
CLOSER TO PERSISTENCE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BRIEFLY AT MIDWEEK.

FOR LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU...AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION
WETBULBING COULD LEAD TO A MIX WITH SNOW DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY IT
ARRIVES. HOWEVER...ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN
AS MOSTLY IF NOT ENTIRELY RAIN UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR TUE INTO WED...BUT THEN
MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL ON THU IN BETWEEN SYSTEM UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WEAK RIDGING. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND COLD
FRONT...TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

MOST SITES ARE SEEING GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT...BUT MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES COUPLED WITH SNOW SEEN YESTERDAY IS ALLOWING FOR A SOME
PATCHY FOG MAINLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. THAT SAID WE ARE SEEING SOME
SITES WITH VIS RUNNING AT OR NEAR MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. RIGHT NOW
WILL KEEP TAF SITES AT VFR...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE SEE
SOME BRIEF LOWERING TO MVFR VIS. SYM AND SJS HAVE SEEN SCT TO BKN MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECK STILL STREAMING ACROSS THOSE SITES THIS HOUR. MOST
OF THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OUT OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.
OTHERWISE MOST SITES WILL SEE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AHEAD
OF NEXT SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY. PRECIP WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH CIGS
CONTINUING TO LOWER AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DJ








000
FXUS63 KJKL 250613
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
113 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 111 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

IR SATELLITE SHOWING SOME MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO
PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS HOUR. THERE HAVE ALSO CONTINUED TO
BE SOME SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND FAR EAST
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE WE ARE SEEING SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG TONIGHT UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES COMBINED WITH SNOW SEEN YESTERDAY. FRESHENED UP
GRID BASED ON LATEST OBS AND TRENDS WITH NO MAJOR UPDATES NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1044 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE CURRENTLY BEING SEEN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
BESIDES SOME SCATTERED HIGHER BASED STRATOCU SKIRTING BY IN THE
NORTH...AS WELL AS THE LAST OF THE LOWER CLOUDS EXITING FAR
SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. THANKS TO THE CLEARING...VALLEYS HAVE DIPPED
INTO THE UPPER 20S IN SPOTS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING
IN AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD TEMPER THE DROP OFF...HOWEVER HAVE
LOWERED THE COOLER VALLEYS TO AROUND 27 DEGREES GIVEN THE CURRENT
TRENDS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 711 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

A BATCH OF LOW CLOUDS IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS OUR AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A PRETTY DEFINED
BACK EDGE TO THESE CLOUDS...AND THE LATEST RUC DATA SUGGESTS THAT
ONCE THESE EXIT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THAT ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS
WILL BE HARDER TO COME BY GIVEN THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
REMAIN IN PLACE AND A LITTLE SUBSIDENCE TO FOLLOW THE EXITING WAVE.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. HAVE LEFT THE LOWS AROUND THE
30 DEGREE MARK IN PLACE FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE
ON SHELTERED VALLEYS THAT MAY DECOUPLE AND TAKE ADVANTAGE OF SOME
EVENTUAL PARTIAL CLEARING. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SOME EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH. WITH
THIS HAS BEEN SOME LIGHT FLURRY ACTIVITY OR SPRINKLES MAINLY TAKING
AIM OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. WILL KEEP A
MENTION OF FLURRIES AND A POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWER OVER THE AREA AND
ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST IN MARTIN AND PIKE COUNTY. WITH THIS
FEATURE...CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING
AND THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES SUPPRESSED THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY BUT WITH WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST REMAINING UP IN MOST
LOCATIONS TONIGHT...WILL LOOK LIKE TEMPS MAY REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...SOME CONCERN HERE WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTH WHERE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER MAY RESULT IN TEMPS
FALLING FURTHER...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. AS WELL...SOME CONCERN
FOR PATCHY FOG WAS A POSSIBLE OCCURRENCE TONIGHT WHERE SNOW HAD
FALLEN IN THE NORTH BUT WITH REMAINING CLOUD COVER AND WINDS
SLIGHTLY UP...WILL LIKELY NOT DEVELOP MORE THAN PATCHY INSTANCES IF
AT ALL SO LEFT THIS OUT OF THE FORECAST.

CONCERNING SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE APPROACHING CLIPPER
SYSTEM...MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRY WITH THIS FEATURE AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER BUT WILL STILL SEEM TO BE DEALING WITH SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY AS
THIS FRONT ARRIVES. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES UP INTO
THE 40S DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY BEFORE THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN
SUNDAY NIGHT. DEALING WITH A CONVECTIVE PROCESS AND THE RIGHT WIND
DIRECTION FOR UPSLOPE FLOW WILL MAKE FOR THE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. AS THE CASE IN THESE EVENTS...THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE
IN THE COLUMN DOES BEGIN TO EXIT COME MONDAY AFTERNOON DURING THE
UPSLOPE PORTION OF THIS EVENT SO SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE LIMITED FOR
THE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY PERIOD. RIGHT NOW THINKING THAT
THE VALLEYS AND THE BLUEGRASS REGION WILL BE UNDER AN INCH TOTAL WITH
MORE THAN AN INCH ABOVE 2000 FEET. WILL MENTION THIS THREAT IN THE
HWO BUT THE OCCURRENCE BEING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MAY REQUIRE SOME
FURTHER CONSIDERATION TO HIGHLIGHT THE IMPACT TO THE MORNING COMMUTE
ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

A RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS
WERE IN GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE FORECAST WAS KEPT VERY
CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND. AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM EASTERN CANADA INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND EASTERN SEABOARD. MEANWHILE A RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM MEXICO NORTH INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
LEAD TO NW FLOW ALOFT INITIALLY WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES EXPECTED
TO DROP DOWN ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION AND APPALACHIANS. THE
TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
BY MIDWEEK...WITH THE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST TO THE PLAINS STATES AND
EVENTUALLY OH VALLEY REGION. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE
RIDGE AND A TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT
OVER THE PLAINS AT MIDWEEK AND THE RESULTING TROUGH SHOULD DAMPEN
THE RIDGE AND APPROACH THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY REGION ON THU INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH OF
THE OH RIVER AND THEN INTO THE NORTHEAST OR MID ATLANTIC STATES.
THIS WOULD BRING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS EAST KY ON THU TO THU
EVENING.

FROM FRI INTO SATURDAY..THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR SOME FLATTENING
OF THE FLOW AT LEAST BRIEFLY FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS
THOUGH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

THE SHORTWAVES IN NW FLOW SHOULD BRING AT LEAST PERIODS OF CLOUDS OR
PROLONG CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINING
AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR THE MON
NIGHT TO TUE PERIOD WITH THE 12Z GFS RECENT NAM RUNS ARE ALSO MORE
MOIST THE 12Z ECMWF. SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AS WELL AS SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY DURING DAYTIME HEATING ON TUE
WHICH WOULD STEEPEN LAPSE RATES. ANY SNOW SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE AT
LEAST SOME LOCALIZED LIGHT AMOUNTS MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. FOR
POPS DURING THIS PERIOD...WENT A BIT HIGHER THAN THE MODEL BLEND
CLOSER TO PERSISTENCE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BRIEFLY AT MIDWEEK.

FOR LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU...AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION
WETBULBING COULD LEAD TO A MIX WITH SNOW DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY IT
ARRIVES. HOWEVER...ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN
AS MOSTLY IF NOT ENTIRELY RAIN UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR TUE INTO WED...BUT THEN
MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL ON THU IN BETWEEN SYSTEM UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WEAK RIDGING. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND COLD
FRONT...TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

MOST SITES ARE SEEING GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT...BUT MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES COUPLED WITH SNOW SEEN YESTERDAY IS ALLOWING FOR A SOME
PATCHY FOG MAINLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. THAT SAID WE ARE SEEING SOME
SITES WITH VIS RUNNING AT OR NEAR MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. RIGHT NOW
WILL KEEP TAF SITES AT VFR...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE SEE
SOME BRIEF LOWERING TO MVFR VIS. SYM AND SJS HAVE SEEN SCT TO BKN MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECK STILL STREAMING ACROSS THOSE SITES THIS HOUR. MOST
OF THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OUT OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.
OTHERWISE MOST SITES WILL SEE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AHEAD
OF NEXT SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY. PRECIP WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH CIGS
CONTINUING TO LOWER AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DJ








000
FXUS63 KJKL 250613
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
113 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 111 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

IR SATELLITE SHOWING SOME MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO
PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS HOUR. THERE HAVE ALSO CONTINUED TO
BE SOME SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND FAR EAST
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE WE ARE SEEING SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG TONIGHT UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES COMBINED WITH SNOW SEEN YESTERDAY. FRESHENED UP
GRID BASED ON LATEST OBS AND TRENDS WITH NO MAJOR UPDATES NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1044 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE CURRENTLY BEING SEEN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
BESIDES SOME SCATTERED HIGHER BASED STRATOCU SKIRTING BY IN THE
NORTH...AS WELL AS THE LAST OF THE LOWER CLOUDS EXITING FAR
SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. THANKS TO THE CLEARING...VALLEYS HAVE DIPPED
INTO THE UPPER 20S IN SPOTS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING
IN AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD TEMPER THE DROP OFF...HOWEVER HAVE
LOWERED THE COOLER VALLEYS TO AROUND 27 DEGREES GIVEN THE CURRENT
TRENDS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 711 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

A BATCH OF LOW CLOUDS IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS OUR AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A PRETTY DEFINED
BACK EDGE TO THESE CLOUDS...AND THE LATEST RUC DATA SUGGESTS THAT
ONCE THESE EXIT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THAT ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS
WILL BE HARDER TO COME BY GIVEN THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
REMAIN IN PLACE AND A LITTLE SUBSIDENCE TO FOLLOW THE EXITING WAVE.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. HAVE LEFT THE LOWS AROUND THE
30 DEGREE MARK IN PLACE FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE
ON SHELTERED VALLEYS THAT MAY DECOUPLE AND TAKE ADVANTAGE OF SOME
EVENTUAL PARTIAL CLEARING. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SOME EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH. WITH
THIS HAS BEEN SOME LIGHT FLURRY ACTIVITY OR SPRINKLES MAINLY TAKING
AIM OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. WILL KEEP A
MENTION OF FLURRIES AND A POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWER OVER THE AREA AND
ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST IN MARTIN AND PIKE COUNTY. WITH THIS
FEATURE...CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING
AND THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES SUPPRESSED THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY BUT WITH WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST REMAINING UP IN MOST
LOCATIONS TONIGHT...WILL LOOK LIKE TEMPS MAY REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...SOME CONCERN HERE WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTH WHERE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER MAY RESULT IN TEMPS
FALLING FURTHER...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. AS WELL...SOME CONCERN
FOR PATCHY FOG WAS A POSSIBLE OCCURRENCE TONIGHT WHERE SNOW HAD
FALLEN IN THE NORTH BUT WITH REMAINING CLOUD COVER AND WINDS
SLIGHTLY UP...WILL LIKELY NOT DEVELOP MORE THAN PATCHY INSTANCES IF
AT ALL SO LEFT THIS OUT OF THE FORECAST.

CONCERNING SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE APPROACHING CLIPPER
SYSTEM...MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRY WITH THIS FEATURE AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER BUT WILL STILL SEEM TO BE DEALING WITH SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY AS
THIS FRONT ARRIVES. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES UP INTO
THE 40S DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY BEFORE THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN
SUNDAY NIGHT. DEALING WITH A CONVECTIVE PROCESS AND THE RIGHT WIND
DIRECTION FOR UPSLOPE FLOW WILL MAKE FOR THE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. AS THE CASE IN THESE EVENTS...THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE
IN THE COLUMN DOES BEGIN TO EXIT COME MONDAY AFTERNOON DURING THE
UPSLOPE PORTION OF THIS EVENT SO SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE LIMITED FOR
THE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY PERIOD. RIGHT NOW THINKING THAT
THE VALLEYS AND THE BLUEGRASS REGION WILL BE UNDER AN INCH TOTAL WITH
MORE THAN AN INCH ABOVE 2000 FEET. WILL MENTION THIS THREAT IN THE
HWO BUT THE OCCURRENCE BEING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MAY REQUIRE SOME
FURTHER CONSIDERATION TO HIGHLIGHT THE IMPACT TO THE MORNING COMMUTE
ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

A RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS
WERE IN GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE FORECAST WAS KEPT VERY
CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND. AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM EASTERN CANADA INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND EASTERN SEABOARD. MEANWHILE A RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM MEXICO NORTH INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
LEAD TO NW FLOW ALOFT INITIALLY WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES EXPECTED
TO DROP DOWN ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION AND APPALACHIANS. THE
TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
BY MIDWEEK...WITH THE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST TO THE PLAINS STATES AND
EVENTUALLY OH VALLEY REGION. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE
RIDGE AND A TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT
OVER THE PLAINS AT MIDWEEK AND THE RESULTING TROUGH SHOULD DAMPEN
THE RIDGE AND APPROACH THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY REGION ON THU INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH OF
THE OH RIVER AND THEN INTO THE NORTHEAST OR MID ATLANTIC STATES.
THIS WOULD BRING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS EAST KY ON THU TO THU
EVENING.

FROM FRI INTO SATURDAY..THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR SOME FLATTENING
OF THE FLOW AT LEAST BRIEFLY FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS
THOUGH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

THE SHORTWAVES IN NW FLOW SHOULD BRING AT LEAST PERIODS OF CLOUDS OR
PROLONG CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINING
AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR THE MON
NIGHT TO TUE PERIOD WITH THE 12Z GFS RECENT NAM RUNS ARE ALSO MORE
MOIST THE 12Z ECMWF. SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AS WELL AS SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY DURING DAYTIME HEATING ON TUE
WHICH WOULD STEEPEN LAPSE RATES. ANY SNOW SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE AT
LEAST SOME LOCALIZED LIGHT AMOUNTS MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. FOR
POPS DURING THIS PERIOD...WENT A BIT HIGHER THAN THE MODEL BLEND
CLOSER TO PERSISTENCE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BRIEFLY AT MIDWEEK.

FOR LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU...AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION
WETBULBING COULD LEAD TO A MIX WITH SNOW DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY IT
ARRIVES. HOWEVER...ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN
AS MOSTLY IF NOT ENTIRELY RAIN UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR TUE INTO WED...BUT THEN
MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL ON THU IN BETWEEN SYSTEM UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WEAK RIDGING. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND COLD
FRONT...TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

MOST SITES ARE SEEING GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT...BUT MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES COUPLED WITH SNOW SEEN YESTERDAY IS ALLOWING FOR A SOME
PATCHY FOG MAINLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. THAT SAID WE ARE SEEING SOME
SITES WITH VIS RUNNING AT OR NEAR MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. RIGHT NOW
WILL KEEP TAF SITES AT VFR...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE SEE
SOME BRIEF LOWERING TO MVFR VIS. SYM AND SJS HAVE SEEN SCT TO BKN MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECK STILL STREAMING ACROSS THOSE SITES THIS HOUR. MOST
OF THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OUT OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.
OTHERWISE MOST SITES WILL SEE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AHEAD
OF NEXT SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY. PRECIP WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH CIGS
CONTINUING TO LOWER AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DJ







000
FXUS63 KJKL 250533
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1233 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1044 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE CURRENTLY BEING SEEN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
BESIDES SOME SCATTERED HIGHER BASED STRATOCU SKIRTING BY IN THE
NORTH...AS WELL AS THE LAST OF THE LOWER CLOUDS EXITING FAR
SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. THANKS TO THE CLEARING...VALLEYS HAVE DIPPED
INTO THE UPPER 20S IN SPOTS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING
IN AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD TEMPER THE DROP OFF...HOWEVER HAVE
LOWERED THE COOLER VALLEYS TO AROUND 27 DEGREES GIVEN THE CURRENT
TRENDS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 711 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

A BATCH OF LOW CLOUDS IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS OUR AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A PRETTY DEFINED
BACK EDGE TO THESE CLOUDS...AND THE LATEST RUC DATA SUGGESTS THAT
ONCE THESE EXIT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THAT ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS
WILL BE HARDER TO COME BY GIVEN THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
REMAIN IN PLACE AND A LITTLE SUBSIDENCE TO FOLLOW THE EXITING WAVE.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. HAVE LEFT THE LOWS AROUND THE
30 DEGREE MARK IN PLACE FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE
ON SHELTERED VALLEYS THAT MAY DECOUPLE AND TAKE ADVANTAGE OF SOME
EVENTUAL PARTIAL CLEARING. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SOME EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH. WITH
THIS HAS BEEN SOME LIGHT FLURRY ACTIVITY OR SPRINKLES MAINLY TAKING
AIM OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. WILL KEEP A
MENTION OF FLURRIES AND A POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWER OVER THE AREA AND
ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST IN MARTIN AND PIKE COUNTY. WITH THIS
FEATURE...CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING
AND THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES SUPPRESSED THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY BUT WITH WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST REMAINING UP IN MOST
LOCATIONS TONIGHT...WILL LOOK LIKE TEMPS MAY REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...SOME CONCERN HERE WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTH WHERE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER MAY RESULT IN TEMPS
FALLING FURTHER...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. AS WELL...SOME CONCERN
FOR PATCHY FOG WAS A POSSIBLE OCCURRENCE TONIGHT WHERE SNOW HAD
FALLEN IN THE NORTH BUT WITH REMAINING CLOUD COVER AND WINDS
SLIGHTLY UP...WILL LIKELY NOT DEVELOP MORE THAN PATCHY INSTANCES IF
AT ALL SO LEFT THIS OUT OF THE FORECAST.

CONCERNING SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE APPROACHING CLIPPER
SYSTEM...MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRY WITH THIS FEATURE AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER BUT WILL STILL SEEM TO BE DEALING WITH SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY AS
THIS FRONT ARRIVES. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES UP INTO
THE 40S DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY BEFORE THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN
SUNDAY NIGHT. DEALING WITH A CONVECTIVE PROCESS AND THE RIGHT WIND
DIRECTION FOR UPSLOPE FLOW WILL MAKE FOR THE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. AS THE CASE IN THESE EVENTS...THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE
IN THE COLUMN DOES BEGIN TO EXIT COME MONDAY AFTERNOON DURING THE
UPSLOPE PORTION OF THIS EVENT SO SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE LIMITED FOR
THE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY PERIOD. RIGHT NOW THINKING THAT
THE VALLEYS AND THE BLUEGRASS REGION WILL BE UNDER AN INCH TOTAL WITH
MORE THAN AN INCH ABOVE 2000 FEET. WILL MENTION THIS THREAT IN THE
HWO BUT THE OCCURRENCE BEING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MAY REQUIRE SOME
FURTHER CONSIDERATION TO HIGHLIGHT THE IMPACT TO THE MORNING COMMUTE
ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

A RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS
WERE IN GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE FORECAST WAS KEPT VERY
CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND. AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM EASTERN CANADA INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND EASTERN SEABOARD. MEANWHILE A RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM MEXICO NORTH INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
LEAD TO NW FLOW ALOFT INITIALLY WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES EXPECTED
TO DROP DOWN ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION AND APPALACHIANS. THE
TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
BY MIDWEEK...WITH THE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST TO THE PLAINS STATES AND
EVENTUALLY OH VALLEY REGION. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE
RIDGE AND A TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT
OVER THE PLAINS AT MIDWEEK AND THE RESULTING TROUGH SHOULD DAMPEN
THE RIDGE AND APPROACH THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY REGION ON THU INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH OF
THE OH RIVER AND THEN INTO THE NORTHEAST OR MID ATLANTIC STATES.
THIS WOULD BRING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS EAST KY ON THU TO THU
EVENING.

FROM FRI INTO SATURDAY..THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR SOME FLATTENING
OF THE FLOW AT LEAST BRIEFLY FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS
THOUGH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

THE SHORTWAVES IN NW FLOW SHOULD BRING AT LEAST PERIODS OF CLOUDS OR
PROLONG CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINING
AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR THE MON
NIGHT TO TUE PERIOD WITH THE 12Z GFS RECENT NAM RUNS ARE ALSO MORE
MOIST THE 12Z ECMWF. SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AS WELL AS SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY DURING DAYTIME HEATING ON TUE
WHICH WOULD STEEPEN LAPSE RATES. ANY SNOW SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE AT
LEAST SOME LOCALIZED LIGHT AMOUNTS MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. FOR
POPS DURING THIS PERIOD...WENT A BIT HIGHER THAN THE MODEL BLEND
CLOSER TO PERSISTENCE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BRIEFLY AT MIDWEEK.

FOR LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU...AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION
WETBULBING COULD LEAD TO A MIX WITH SNOW DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY IT
ARRIVES. HOWEVER...ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN
AS MOSTLY IF NOT ENTIRELY RAIN UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR TUE INTO WED...BUT THEN
MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL ON THU IN BETWEEN SYSTEM UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WEAK RIDGING. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND COLD
FRONT...TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

MOST SITES ARE SEEING GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT...BUT MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES COUPLED WITH SNOW SEEN YESTERDAY IS ALLOWING FOR A SOME
PATCHY FOG MAINLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. THAT SAID WE ARE SEEING SOME
SITES WITH VIS RUNNING AT OR NEAR MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. RIGHT NOW
WILL KEEP TAF SITES AT VFR...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE SEE
SOME BRIEF LOWERING TO MVFR VIS. SYM AND SJS HAVE SEEN SCT TO BKN MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECK STILL STREAMING ACROSS THOSE SITES THIS HOUR. MOST
OF THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OUT OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.
OTHERWISE MOST SITES WILL SEE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AHEAD
OF NEXT SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY. PRECIP WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH CIGS
CONTINUING TO LOWER AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DJ







000
FXUS63 KJKL 250533
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1233 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1044 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE CURRENTLY BEING SEEN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
BESIDES SOME SCATTERED HIGHER BASED STRATOCU SKIRTING BY IN THE
NORTH...AS WELL AS THE LAST OF THE LOWER CLOUDS EXITING FAR
SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. THANKS TO THE CLEARING...VALLEYS HAVE DIPPED
INTO THE UPPER 20S IN SPOTS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING
IN AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD TEMPER THE DROP OFF...HOWEVER HAVE
LOWERED THE COOLER VALLEYS TO AROUND 27 DEGREES GIVEN THE CURRENT
TRENDS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 711 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

A BATCH OF LOW CLOUDS IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS OUR AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A PRETTY DEFINED
BACK EDGE TO THESE CLOUDS...AND THE LATEST RUC DATA SUGGESTS THAT
ONCE THESE EXIT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THAT ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS
WILL BE HARDER TO COME BY GIVEN THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
REMAIN IN PLACE AND A LITTLE SUBSIDENCE TO FOLLOW THE EXITING WAVE.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. HAVE LEFT THE LOWS AROUND THE
30 DEGREE MARK IN PLACE FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE
ON SHELTERED VALLEYS THAT MAY DECOUPLE AND TAKE ADVANTAGE OF SOME
EVENTUAL PARTIAL CLEARING. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SOME EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH. WITH
THIS HAS BEEN SOME LIGHT FLURRY ACTIVITY OR SPRINKLES MAINLY TAKING
AIM OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. WILL KEEP A
MENTION OF FLURRIES AND A POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWER OVER THE AREA AND
ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST IN MARTIN AND PIKE COUNTY. WITH THIS
FEATURE...CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING
AND THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES SUPPRESSED THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY BUT WITH WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST REMAINING UP IN MOST
LOCATIONS TONIGHT...WILL LOOK LIKE TEMPS MAY REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...SOME CONCERN HERE WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTH WHERE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER MAY RESULT IN TEMPS
FALLING FURTHER...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. AS WELL...SOME CONCERN
FOR PATCHY FOG WAS A POSSIBLE OCCURRENCE TONIGHT WHERE SNOW HAD
FALLEN IN THE NORTH BUT WITH REMAINING CLOUD COVER AND WINDS
SLIGHTLY UP...WILL LIKELY NOT DEVELOP MORE THAN PATCHY INSTANCES IF
AT ALL SO LEFT THIS OUT OF THE FORECAST.

CONCERNING SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE APPROACHING CLIPPER
SYSTEM...MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRY WITH THIS FEATURE AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER BUT WILL STILL SEEM TO BE DEALING WITH SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY AS
THIS FRONT ARRIVES. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES UP INTO
THE 40S DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY BEFORE THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN
SUNDAY NIGHT. DEALING WITH A CONVECTIVE PROCESS AND THE RIGHT WIND
DIRECTION FOR UPSLOPE FLOW WILL MAKE FOR THE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. AS THE CASE IN THESE EVENTS...THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE
IN THE COLUMN DOES BEGIN TO EXIT COME MONDAY AFTERNOON DURING THE
UPSLOPE PORTION OF THIS EVENT SO SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE LIMITED FOR
THE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY PERIOD. RIGHT NOW THINKING THAT
THE VALLEYS AND THE BLUEGRASS REGION WILL BE UNDER AN INCH TOTAL WITH
MORE THAN AN INCH ABOVE 2000 FEET. WILL MENTION THIS THREAT IN THE
HWO BUT THE OCCURRENCE BEING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MAY REQUIRE SOME
FURTHER CONSIDERATION TO HIGHLIGHT THE IMPACT TO THE MORNING COMMUTE
ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

A RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS
WERE IN GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE FORECAST WAS KEPT VERY
CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND. AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM EASTERN CANADA INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND EASTERN SEABOARD. MEANWHILE A RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM MEXICO NORTH INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
LEAD TO NW FLOW ALOFT INITIALLY WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES EXPECTED
TO DROP DOWN ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION AND APPALACHIANS. THE
TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
BY MIDWEEK...WITH THE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST TO THE PLAINS STATES AND
EVENTUALLY OH VALLEY REGION. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE
RIDGE AND A TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT
OVER THE PLAINS AT MIDWEEK AND THE RESULTING TROUGH SHOULD DAMPEN
THE RIDGE AND APPROACH THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY REGION ON THU INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH OF
THE OH RIVER AND THEN INTO THE NORTHEAST OR MID ATLANTIC STATES.
THIS WOULD BRING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS EAST KY ON THU TO THU
EVENING.

FROM FRI INTO SATURDAY..THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR SOME FLATTENING
OF THE FLOW AT LEAST BRIEFLY FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS
THOUGH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

THE SHORTWAVES IN NW FLOW SHOULD BRING AT LEAST PERIODS OF CLOUDS OR
PROLONG CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINING
AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR THE MON
NIGHT TO TUE PERIOD WITH THE 12Z GFS RECENT NAM RUNS ARE ALSO MORE
MOIST THE 12Z ECMWF. SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AS WELL AS SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY DURING DAYTIME HEATING ON TUE
WHICH WOULD STEEPEN LAPSE RATES. ANY SNOW SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE AT
LEAST SOME LOCALIZED LIGHT AMOUNTS MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. FOR
POPS DURING THIS PERIOD...WENT A BIT HIGHER THAN THE MODEL BLEND
CLOSER TO PERSISTENCE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BRIEFLY AT MIDWEEK.

FOR LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU...AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION
WETBULBING COULD LEAD TO A MIX WITH SNOW DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY IT
ARRIVES. HOWEVER...ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN
AS MOSTLY IF NOT ENTIRELY RAIN UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR TUE INTO WED...BUT THEN
MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL ON THU IN BETWEEN SYSTEM UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WEAK RIDGING. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND COLD
FRONT...TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

MOST SITES ARE SEEING GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT...BUT MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES COUPLED WITH SNOW SEEN YESTERDAY IS ALLOWING FOR A SOME
PATCHY FOG MAINLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. THAT SAID WE ARE SEEING SOME
SITES WITH VIS RUNNING AT OR NEAR MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. RIGHT NOW
WILL KEEP TAF SITES AT VFR...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE SEE
SOME BRIEF LOWERING TO MVFR VIS. SYM AND SJS HAVE SEEN SCT TO BKN MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECK STILL STREAMING ACROSS THOSE SITES THIS HOUR. MOST
OF THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OUT OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.
OTHERWISE MOST SITES WILL SEE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AHEAD
OF NEXT SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY. PRECIP WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH CIGS
CONTINUING TO LOWER AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DJ








000
FXUS63 KJKL 250344 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1044 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1044 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE CURRENTLY BEING SEEN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
BESIDES SOME SCATTERED HIGHER BASED STRATOCU SKIRTING BY IN THE
NORTH...AS WELL AS THE LAST OF THE LOWER CLOUDS EXITING FAR
SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. THANKS TO THE CLEARING...VALLEYS HAVE DIPPED
INTO THE UPPER 20S IN SPOTS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING
IN AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD TEMPER THE DROP OFF...HOWEVER HAVE
LOWERED THE COOLER VALLEYS TO AROUND 27 DEGREES GIVEN THE CURRENT
TRENDS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 711 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

A BATCH OF LOW CLOUDS IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS OUR AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A PRETTY DEFINED
BACK EDGE TO THESE CLOUDS...AND THE LATEST RUC DATA SUGGESTS THAT
ONCE THESE EXIT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THAT ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS
WILL BE HARDER TO COME BY GIVEN THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
REMAIN IN PLACE AND A LITTLE SUBSIDENCE TO FOLLOW THE EXITING WAVE.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. HAVE LEFT THE LOWS AROUND THE
30 DEGREE MARK IN PLACE FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE
ON SHELTERED VALLEYS THAT MAY DECOUPLE AND TAKE ADVANTAGE OF SOME
EVENTUAL PARTIAL CLEARING. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SOME EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH. WITH
THIS HAS BEEN SOME LIGHT FLURRY ACTIVITY OR SPRINKLES MAINLY TAKING
AIM OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. WILL KEEP A
MENTION OF FLURRIES AND A POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWER OVER THE AREA AND
ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST IN MARTIN AND PIKE COUNTY. WITH THIS
FEATURE...CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING
AND THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES SUPPRESSED THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY BUT WITH WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST REMAINING UP IN MOST
LOCATIONS TONIGHT...WILL LOOK LIKE TEMPS MAY REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...SOME CONCERN HERE WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTH WHERE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER MAY RESULT IN TEMPS
FALLING FURTHER...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. AS WELL...SOME CONCERN
FOR PATCHY FOG WAS A POSSIBLE OCCURRENCE TONIGHT WHERE SNOW HAD
FALLEN IN THE NORTH BUT WITH REMAINING CLOUD COVER AND WINDS
SLIGHTLY UP...WILL LIKELY NOT DEVELOP MORE THAN PATCHY INSTANCES IF
AT ALL SO LEFT THIS OUT OF THE FORECAST.

CONCERNING SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE APPROACHING CLIPPER
SYSTEM...MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRY WITH THIS FEATURE AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER BUT WILL STILL SEEM TO BE DEALING WITH SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY AS
THIS FRONT ARRIVES. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES UP INTO
THE 40S DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY BEFORE THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN
SUNDAY NIGHT. DEALING WITH A CONVECTIVE PROCESS AND THE RIGHT WIND
DIRECTION FOR UPSLOPE FLOW WILL MAKE FOR THE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. AS THE CASE IN THESE EVENTS...THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE
IN THE COLUMN DOES BEGIN TO EXIT COME MONDAY AFTERNOON DURING THE
UPSLOPE PORTION OF THIS EVENT SO SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE LIMITED FOR
THE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY PERIOD. RIGHT NOW THINKING THAT
THE VALLEYS AND THE BLUEGRASS REGION WILL BE UNDER AN INCH TOTAL WITH
MORE THAN AN INCH ABOVE 2000 FEET. WILL MENTION THIS THREAT IN THE
HWO BUT THE OCCURRENCE BEING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MAY REQUIRE SOME
FURTHER CONSIDERATION TO HIGHLIGHT THE IMPACT TO THE MORNING COMMUTE
ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

A RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS
WERE IN GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE FORECAST WAS KEPT VERY
CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND. AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM EASTERN CANADA INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND EASTERN SEABOARD. MEANWHILE A RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM MEXICO NORTH INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
LEAD TO NW FLOW ALOFT INITIALLY WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES EXPECTED
TO DROP DOWN ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION AND APPALACHIANS. THE
TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
BY MIDWEEK...WITH THE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST TO THE PLAINS STATES AND
EVENTUALLY OH VALLEY REGION. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE
RIDGE AND A TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT
OVER THE PLAINS AT MIDWEEK AND THE RESULTING TROUGH SHOULD DAMPEN
THE RIDGE AND APPROACH THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY REGION ON THU INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH OF
THE OH RIVER AND THEN INTO THE NORTHEAST OR MID ATLANTIC STATES.
THIS WOULD BRING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS EAST KY ON THU TO THU
EVENING.

FROM FRI INTO SATURDAY..THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR SOME FLATTENING
OF THE FLOW AT LEAST BRIEFLY FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS
THOUGH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

THE SHORTWAVES IN NW FLOW SHOULD BRING AT LEAST PERIODS OF CLOUDS OR
PROLONG CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINING
AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR THE MON
NIGHT TO TUE PERIOD WITH THE 12Z GFS RECENT NAM RUNS ARE ALSO MORE
MOIST THE 12Z ECMWF. SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AS WELL AS SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY DURING DAYTIME HEATING ON TUE
WHICH WOULD STEEPEN LAPSE RATES. ANY SNOW SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE AT
LEAST SOME LOCALIZED LIGHT AMOUNTS MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. FOR
POPS DURING THIS PERIOD...WENT A BIT HIGHER THAN THE MODEL BLEND
CLOSER TO PERSISTENCE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BRIEFLY AT MIDWEEK.

FOR LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU...AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION
WETBULBING COULD LEAD TO A MIX WITH SNOW DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY IT
ARRIVES. HOWEVER...ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN
AS MOSTLY IF NOT ENTIRELY RAIN UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR TUE INTO WED...BUT THEN
MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL ON THU IN BETWEEN SYSTEM UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WEAK RIDGING. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND COLD
FRONT...TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 711 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

MVFR STRATOCU DECK LOOKS TO EXIT EAST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE GENERALLY THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE REST OF THE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL BE THREATENING
WITH LOWERING CEILINGS ONCE AGAIN TOWARDS 00Z MONDAY AS THE NEXT
WEATHER MAKER MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. WSW WINDS OF 5 TO 10
KTS...WITH A FEW EARLY GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KTS...WILL GENERALLY BACK
TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN








000
FXUS63 KJKL 250344 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1044 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1044 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE CURRENTLY BEING SEEN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
BESIDES SOME SCATTERED HIGHER BASED STRATOCU SKIRTING BY IN THE
NORTH...AS WELL AS THE LAST OF THE LOWER CLOUDS EXITING FAR
SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. THANKS TO THE CLEARING...VALLEYS HAVE DIPPED
INTO THE UPPER 20S IN SPOTS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING
IN AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD TEMPER THE DROP OFF...HOWEVER HAVE
LOWERED THE COOLER VALLEYS TO AROUND 27 DEGREES GIVEN THE CURRENT
TRENDS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 711 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

A BATCH OF LOW CLOUDS IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS OUR AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A PRETTY DEFINED
BACK EDGE TO THESE CLOUDS...AND THE LATEST RUC DATA SUGGESTS THAT
ONCE THESE EXIT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THAT ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS
WILL BE HARDER TO COME BY GIVEN THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
REMAIN IN PLACE AND A LITTLE SUBSIDENCE TO FOLLOW THE EXITING WAVE.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. HAVE LEFT THE LOWS AROUND THE
30 DEGREE MARK IN PLACE FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE
ON SHELTERED VALLEYS THAT MAY DECOUPLE AND TAKE ADVANTAGE OF SOME
EVENTUAL PARTIAL CLEARING. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SOME EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH. WITH
THIS HAS BEEN SOME LIGHT FLURRY ACTIVITY OR SPRINKLES MAINLY TAKING
AIM OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. WILL KEEP A
MENTION OF FLURRIES AND A POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWER OVER THE AREA AND
ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST IN MARTIN AND PIKE COUNTY. WITH THIS
FEATURE...CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING
AND THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES SUPPRESSED THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY BUT WITH WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST REMAINING UP IN MOST
LOCATIONS TONIGHT...WILL LOOK LIKE TEMPS MAY REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...SOME CONCERN HERE WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTH WHERE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER MAY RESULT IN TEMPS
FALLING FURTHER...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. AS WELL...SOME CONCERN
FOR PATCHY FOG WAS A POSSIBLE OCCURRENCE TONIGHT WHERE SNOW HAD
FALLEN IN THE NORTH BUT WITH REMAINING CLOUD COVER AND WINDS
SLIGHTLY UP...WILL LIKELY NOT DEVELOP MORE THAN PATCHY INSTANCES IF
AT ALL SO LEFT THIS OUT OF THE FORECAST.

CONCERNING SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE APPROACHING CLIPPER
SYSTEM...MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRY WITH THIS FEATURE AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER BUT WILL STILL SEEM TO BE DEALING WITH SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY AS
THIS FRONT ARRIVES. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES UP INTO
THE 40S DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY BEFORE THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN
SUNDAY NIGHT. DEALING WITH A CONVECTIVE PROCESS AND THE RIGHT WIND
DIRECTION FOR UPSLOPE FLOW WILL MAKE FOR THE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. AS THE CASE IN THESE EVENTS...THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE
IN THE COLUMN DOES BEGIN TO EXIT COME MONDAY AFTERNOON DURING THE
UPSLOPE PORTION OF THIS EVENT SO SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE LIMITED FOR
THE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY PERIOD. RIGHT NOW THINKING THAT
THE VALLEYS AND THE BLUEGRASS REGION WILL BE UNDER AN INCH TOTAL WITH
MORE THAN AN INCH ABOVE 2000 FEET. WILL MENTION THIS THREAT IN THE
HWO BUT THE OCCURRENCE BEING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MAY REQUIRE SOME
FURTHER CONSIDERATION TO HIGHLIGHT THE IMPACT TO THE MORNING COMMUTE
ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

A RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS
WERE IN GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE FORECAST WAS KEPT VERY
CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND. AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM EASTERN CANADA INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND EASTERN SEABOARD. MEANWHILE A RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM MEXICO NORTH INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
LEAD TO NW FLOW ALOFT INITIALLY WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES EXPECTED
TO DROP DOWN ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION AND APPALACHIANS. THE
TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
BY MIDWEEK...WITH THE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST TO THE PLAINS STATES AND
EVENTUALLY OH VALLEY REGION. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE
RIDGE AND A TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT
OVER THE PLAINS AT MIDWEEK AND THE RESULTING TROUGH SHOULD DAMPEN
THE RIDGE AND APPROACH THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY REGION ON THU INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH OF
THE OH RIVER AND THEN INTO THE NORTHEAST OR MID ATLANTIC STATES.
THIS WOULD BRING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS EAST KY ON THU TO THU
EVENING.

FROM FRI INTO SATURDAY..THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR SOME FLATTENING
OF THE FLOW AT LEAST BRIEFLY FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS
THOUGH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

THE SHORTWAVES IN NW FLOW SHOULD BRING AT LEAST PERIODS OF CLOUDS OR
PROLONG CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINING
AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR THE MON
NIGHT TO TUE PERIOD WITH THE 12Z GFS RECENT NAM RUNS ARE ALSO MORE
MOIST THE 12Z ECMWF. SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AS WELL AS SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY DURING DAYTIME HEATING ON TUE
WHICH WOULD STEEPEN LAPSE RATES. ANY SNOW SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE AT
LEAST SOME LOCALIZED LIGHT AMOUNTS MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. FOR
POPS DURING THIS PERIOD...WENT A BIT HIGHER THAN THE MODEL BLEND
CLOSER TO PERSISTENCE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BRIEFLY AT MIDWEEK.

FOR LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU...AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION
WETBULBING COULD LEAD TO A MIX WITH SNOW DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY IT
ARRIVES. HOWEVER...ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN
AS MOSTLY IF NOT ENTIRELY RAIN UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR TUE INTO WED...BUT THEN
MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL ON THU IN BETWEEN SYSTEM UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WEAK RIDGING. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND COLD
FRONT...TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 711 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

MVFR STRATOCU DECK LOOKS TO EXIT EAST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE GENERALLY THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE REST OF THE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL BE THREATENING
WITH LOWERING CEILINGS ONCE AGAIN TOWARDS 00Z MONDAY AS THE NEXT
WEATHER MAKER MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. WSW WINDS OF 5 TO 10
KTS...WITH A FEW EARLY GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KTS...WILL GENERALLY BACK
TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN









000
FXUS63 KJKL 250011 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
711 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 711 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

A BATCH OF LOW CLOUDS IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS OUR AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A PRETTY DEFINED
BACK EDGE TO THESE CLOUDS...AND THE LATEST RUC DATA SUGGESTS THAT
ONCE THESE EXIT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THAT ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS
WILL BE HARDER TO COME BY GIVEN THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
REMAIN IN PLACE AND A LITTLE SUBSIDENCE TO FOLLOW THE EXITING WAVE.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. HAVE LEFT THE LOWS AROUND THE
30 DEGREE MARK IN PLACE FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE
ON SHELTERED VALLEYS THAT MAY DECOUPLE AND TAKE ADVANTAGE OF SOME
EVENTUAL PARTIAL CLEARING. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SOME EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH. WITH
THIS HAS BEEN SOME LIGHT FLURRY ACTIVITY OR SPRINKLES MAINLY TAKING
AIM OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. WILL KEEP A
MENTION OF FLURRIES AND A POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWER OVER THE AREA AND
ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST IN MARTIN AND PIKE COUNTY. WITH THIS
FEATURE...CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING
AND THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES SUPPRESSED THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY BUT WITH WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST REMAINING UP IN MOST
LOCATIONS TONIGHT...WILL LOOK LIKE TEMPS MAY REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...SOME CONCERN HERE WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTH WHERE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER MAY RESULT IN TEMPS
FALLING FURTHER...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. AS WELL...SOME CONCERN
FOR PATCHY FOG WAS A POSSIBLE OCCURRENCE TONIGHT WHERE SNOW HAD
FALLEN IN THE NORTH BUT WITH REMAINING CLOUD COVER AND WINDS
SLIGHTLY UP...WILL LIKELY NOT DEVELOP MORE THAN PATCHY INSTANCES IF
AT ALL SO LEFT THIS OUT OF THE FORECAST.

CONCERNING SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE APPROACHING CLIPPER
SYSTEM...MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRY WITH THIS FEATURE AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER BUT WILL STILL SEEM TO BE DEALING WITH SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY AS
THIS FRONT ARRIVES. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES UP INTO
THE 40S DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY BEFORE THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN
SUNDAY NIGHT. DEALING WITH A CONVECTIVE PROCESS AND THE RIGHT WIND
DIRECTION FOR UPSLOPE FLOW WILL MAKE FOR THE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. AS THE CASE IN THESE EVENTS...THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE
IN THE COLUMN DOES BEGIN TO EXIT COME MONDAY AFTERNOON DURING THE
UPSLOPE PORTION OF THIS EVENT SO SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE LIMITED FOR
THE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY PERIOD. RIGHT NOW THINKING THAT
THE VALLEYS AND THE BLUEGRASS REGION WILL BE UNDER AN INCH TOTAL WITH
MORE THAN AN INCH ABOVE 2000 FEET. WILL MENTION THIS THREAT IN THE
HWO BUT THE OCCURRENCE BEING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MAY REQUIRE SOME
FURTHER CONSIDERATION TO HIGHLIGHT THE IMPACT TO THE MORNING COMMUTE
ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

A RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS
WERE IN GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE FORECAST WAS KEPT VERY
CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND. AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM EASTERN CANADA INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND EASTERN SEABOARD. MEANWHILE A RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM MEXICO NORTH INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
LEAD TO NW FLOW ALOFT INITIALLY WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES EXPECTED
TO DROP DOWN ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION AND APPALACHIANS. THE
TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
BY MIDWEEK...WITH THE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST TO THE PLAINS STATES AND
EVENTUALLY OH VALLEY REGION. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE
RIDGE AND A TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT
OVER THE PLAINS AT MIDWEEK AND THE RESULTING TROUGH SHOULD DAMPEN
THE RIDGE AND APPROACH THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY REGION ON THU INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH OF
THE OH RIVER AND THEN INTO THE NORTHEAST OR MID ATLANTIC STATES.
THIS WOULD BRING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS EAST KY ON THU TO THU
EVENING.

FROM FRI INTO SATURDAY..THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR SOME FLATTENING
OF THE FLOW AT LEAST BRIEFLY FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS
THOUGH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

THE SHORTWAVES IN NW FLOW SHOULD BRING AT LEAST PERIODS OF CLOUDS OR
PROLONG CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINING
AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR THE MON
NIGHT TO TUE PERIOD WITH THE 12Z GFS RECENT NAM RUNS ARE ALSO MORE
MOIST THE 12Z ECMWF. SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AS WELL AS SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY DURING DAYTIME HEATING ON TUE
WHICH WOULD STEEPEN LAPSE RATES. ANY SNOW SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE AT
LEAST SOME LOCALIZED LIGHT AMOUNTS MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. FOR
POPS DURING THIS PERIOD...WENT A BIT HIGHER THAN THE MODEL BLEND
CLOSER TO PERSISTENCE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BRIEFLY AT MIDWEEK.

FOR LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU...AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION
WETBULBING COULD LEAD TO A MIX WITH SNOW DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY IT
ARRIVES. HOWEVER...ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN
AS MOSTLY IF NOT ENTIRELY RAIN UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR TUE INTO WED...BUT THEN
MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL ON THU IN BETWEEN SYSTEM UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WEAK RIDGING. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND COLD
FRONT...TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 711 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

MVFR STRATOCU DECK LOOKS TO EXIT EAST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE GENERALLY THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE REST OF THE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL BE THREATENING
WITH LOWERING CEILINGS ONCE AGAIN TOWARDS 00Z MONDAY AS THE NEXT
WEATHER MAKER MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. WSW WINDS OF 5 TO 10
KTS...WITH A FEW EARLY GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KTS...WILL GENERALLY BACK
TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN







000
FXUS63 KJKL 250011 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
711 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 711 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

A BATCH OF LOW CLOUDS IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS OUR AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A PRETTY DEFINED
BACK EDGE TO THESE CLOUDS...AND THE LATEST RUC DATA SUGGESTS THAT
ONCE THESE EXIT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THAT ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS
WILL BE HARDER TO COME BY GIVEN THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
REMAIN IN PLACE AND A LITTLE SUBSIDENCE TO FOLLOW THE EXITING WAVE.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. HAVE LEFT THE LOWS AROUND THE
30 DEGREE MARK IN PLACE FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE
ON SHELTERED VALLEYS THAT MAY DECOUPLE AND TAKE ADVANTAGE OF SOME
EVENTUAL PARTIAL CLEARING. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SOME EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH. WITH
THIS HAS BEEN SOME LIGHT FLURRY ACTIVITY OR SPRINKLES MAINLY TAKING
AIM OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. WILL KEEP A
MENTION OF FLURRIES AND A POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWER OVER THE AREA AND
ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST IN MARTIN AND PIKE COUNTY. WITH THIS
FEATURE...CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING
AND THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES SUPPRESSED THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY BUT WITH WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST REMAINING UP IN MOST
LOCATIONS TONIGHT...WILL LOOK LIKE TEMPS MAY REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...SOME CONCERN HERE WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTH WHERE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER MAY RESULT IN TEMPS
FALLING FURTHER...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. AS WELL...SOME CONCERN
FOR PATCHY FOG WAS A POSSIBLE OCCURRENCE TONIGHT WHERE SNOW HAD
FALLEN IN THE NORTH BUT WITH REMAINING CLOUD COVER AND WINDS
SLIGHTLY UP...WILL LIKELY NOT DEVELOP MORE THAN PATCHY INSTANCES IF
AT ALL SO LEFT THIS OUT OF THE FORECAST.

CONCERNING SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE APPROACHING CLIPPER
SYSTEM...MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRY WITH THIS FEATURE AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER BUT WILL STILL SEEM TO BE DEALING WITH SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY AS
THIS FRONT ARRIVES. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES UP INTO
THE 40S DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY BEFORE THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN
SUNDAY NIGHT. DEALING WITH A CONVECTIVE PROCESS AND THE RIGHT WIND
DIRECTION FOR UPSLOPE FLOW WILL MAKE FOR THE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. AS THE CASE IN THESE EVENTS...THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE
IN THE COLUMN DOES BEGIN TO EXIT COME MONDAY AFTERNOON DURING THE
UPSLOPE PORTION OF THIS EVENT SO SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE LIMITED FOR
THE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY PERIOD. RIGHT NOW THINKING THAT
THE VALLEYS AND THE BLUEGRASS REGION WILL BE UNDER AN INCH TOTAL WITH
MORE THAN AN INCH ABOVE 2000 FEET. WILL MENTION THIS THREAT IN THE
HWO BUT THE OCCURRENCE BEING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MAY REQUIRE SOME
FURTHER CONSIDERATION TO HIGHLIGHT THE IMPACT TO THE MORNING COMMUTE
ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

A RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS
WERE IN GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE FORECAST WAS KEPT VERY
CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND. AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM EASTERN CANADA INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND EASTERN SEABOARD. MEANWHILE A RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM MEXICO NORTH INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
LEAD TO NW FLOW ALOFT INITIALLY WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES EXPECTED
TO DROP DOWN ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION AND APPALACHIANS. THE
TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
BY MIDWEEK...WITH THE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST TO THE PLAINS STATES AND
EVENTUALLY OH VALLEY REGION. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE
RIDGE AND A TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT
OVER THE PLAINS AT MIDWEEK AND THE RESULTING TROUGH SHOULD DAMPEN
THE RIDGE AND APPROACH THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY REGION ON THU INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH OF
THE OH RIVER AND THEN INTO THE NORTHEAST OR MID ATLANTIC STATES.
THIS WOULD BRING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS EAST KY ON THU TO THU
EVENING.

FROM FRI INTO SATURDAY..THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR SOME FLATTENING
OF THE FLOW AT LEAST BRIEFLY FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS
THOUGH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

THE SHORTWAVES IN NW FLOW SHOULD BRING AT LEAST PERIODS OF CLOUDS OR
PROLONG CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINING
AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR THE MON
NIGHT TO TUE PERIOD WITH THE 12Z GFS RECENT NAM RUNS ARE ALSO MORE
MOIST THE 12Z ECMWF. SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AS WELL AS SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY DURING DAYTIME HEATING ON TUE
WHICH WOULD STEEPEN LAPSE RATES. ANY SNOW SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE AT
LEAST SOME LOCALIZED LIGHT AMOUNTS MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. FOR
POPS DURING THIS PERIOD...WENT A BIT HIGHER THAN THE MODEL BLEND
CLOSER TO PERSISTENCE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BRIEFLY AT MIDWEEK.

FOR LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU...AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION
WETBULBING COULD LEAD TO A MIX WITH SNOW DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY IT
ARRIVES. HOWEVER...ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN
AS MOSTLY IF NOT ENTIRELY RAIN UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR TUE INTO WED...BUT THEN
MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL ON THU IN BETWEEN SYSTEM UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WEAK RIDGING. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND COLD
FRONT...TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 711 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

MVFR STRATOCU DECK LOOKS TO EXIT EAST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE GENERALLY THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE REST OF THE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL BE THREATENING
WITH LOWERING CEILINGS ONCE AGAIN TOWARDS 00Z MONDAY AS THE NEXT
WEATHER MAKER MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. WSW WINDS OF 5 TO 10
KTS...WITH A FEW EARLY GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KTS...WILL GENERALLY BACK
TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN








000
FXUS63 KJKL 242118
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
418 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SOME EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH. WITH
THIS HAS BEEN SOME LIGHT FLURRY ACTIVITY OR SPRINKLES MAINLY TAKING
AIM OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. WILL KEEP A
MENTION OF FLURRIES AND A POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWER OVER THE AREA AND
ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST IN MARTIN AND PIKE COUNTY. WITH THIS
FEATURE...CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING
AND THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES SUPPRESSED THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY BUT WITH WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST REMAINING UP IN MOST
LOCATIONS TONIGHT...WILL LOOK LIKE TEMPS MAY REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...SOME CONCERN HERE WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTH WHERE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER MAY RESULT IN TEMPS
FALLING FURTHER...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. AS WELL...SOME CONCERN
FOR PATCHY FOG WAS A POSSIBLE OCCURRENCE TONIGHT WHERE SNOW HAD
FALLEN IN THE NORTH BUT WITH REMAINING CLOUD COVER AND WINDS
SLIGHTLY UP...WILL LIKELY NOT DEVELOP MORE THAN PATCHY INSTANCES IF
AT ALL SO LEFT THIS OUT OF THE FORECAST.

CONCERNING SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE APPROACHING CLIPPER
SYSTEM...MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRY WITH THIS FEATURE AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER BUT WILL STILL SEEM TO BE DEALING WITH SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY AS
THIS FRONT ARRIVES. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES UP INTO
THE 40S DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY BEFORE THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN
SUNDAY NIGHT. DEALING WITH A CONVECTIVE PROCESS AND THE RIGHT WIND
DIRECTION FOR UPSLOPE FLOW WILL MAKE FOR THE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. AS THE CASE IN THESE EVENTS...THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE
IN THE COLUMN DOES BEGIN TO EXIT COME MONDAY AFTERNOON DURING THE
UPSLOPE PORTION OF THIS EVENT SO SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE LIMITED FOR
THE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY PERIOD. RIGHT NOW THINKING THAT
THE VALLEYS AND THE BLUEGRASS REGION WILL BE UNDER AN INCH TOTAL WITH
MORE THAN AN INCH ABOVE 2000 FEET. WILL MENTION THIS THREAT IN THE
HWO BUT THE OCCURRENCE BEING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MAY REQUIRE SOME
FURTHER CONSIDERATION TO HIGHLIGHT THE IMPACT TO THE MORNING COMMUTE
ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

A RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS
WERE IN GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE FORECAST WAS KEPT VERY
CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND. AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM EASTERN CANADA INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND EASTERN SEABOARD. MEANWHILE A RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM MEXICO NORTH INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
LEAD TO NW FLOW ALOFT INITIALLY WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES EXPECTED
TO DROP DOWN ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION AND APPALACHIANS. THE
TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
BY MIDWEEK...WITH THE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST TO THE PLAINS STATES AND
EVENTUALLY OH VALLEY REGION. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE
RIDGE AND A TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT
OVER THE PLAINS AT MIDWEEK AND THE RESULTING TROUGH SHOULD DAMPEN
THE RIDGE AND APPROACH THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY REGION ON THU INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH OF
THE OH RIVER AND THEN INTO THE NORTHEAST OR MID ATLANTIC STATES.
THIS WOULD BRING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS EAST KY ON THU TO THU
EVENING.

FROM FRI INTO SATURDAY..THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR SOME FLATTENING
OF THE FLOW AT LEAST BRIEFLY FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS
THOUGH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

THE SHORTWAVES IN NW FLOW SHOULD BRING AT LEAST PERIODS OF CLOUDS OR
PROLONG CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINING
AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR THE MON
NIGHT TO TUE PERIOD WITH THE 12Z GFS RECENT NAM RUNS ARE ALSO MORE
MOIST THE 12Z ECMWF. SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AS WELL AS SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY DURING DAYTIME HEATING ON TUE
WHICH WOULD STEEPEN LAPSE RATES. ANY SNOW SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE AT
LEAST SOME LOCALIZED LIGHT AMOUNTS MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. FOR
POPS DURING THIS PERIOD...WENT A BIT HIGHER THAN THE MODEL BLEND
CLOSER TO PERSISTENCE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BRIEFLY AT MIDWEEK.

FOR LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU...AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION
WETBULBING COULD LEAD TO A MIX WITH SNOW DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY IT
ARRIVES. HOWEVER...ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN
AS MOSTLY IF NOT ENTIRELY RAIN UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR TUE INTO WED...BUT THEN
MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL ON THU IN BETWEEN SYSTEM UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WEAK RIDGING. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND COLD
FRONT...TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 101 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST CONTINUES TO
EXIT...ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE DOWN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE LOWER OH VALLEY KEEPING IFR AND MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT. SOME BREAKS MAY OCCUR
BETWEEN NOW AND LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING BUT SHOULD REMAIN OVERCAST AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER








000
FXUS63 KJKL 242118
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
418 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SOME EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH. WITH
THIS HAS BEEN SOME LIGHT FLURRY ACTIVITY OR SPRINKLES MAINLY TAKING
AIM OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. WILL KEEP A
MENTION OF FLURRIES AND A POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWER OVER THE AREA AND
ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST IN MARTIN AND PIKE COUNTY. WITH THIS
FEATURE...CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING
AND THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES SUPPRESSED THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY BUT WITH WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST REMAINING UP IN MOST
LOCATIONS TONIGHT...WILL LOOK LIKE TEMPS MAY REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...SOME CONCERN HERE WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTH WHERE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER MAY RESULT IN TEMPS
FALLING FURTHER...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. AS WELL...SOME CONCERN
FOR PATCHY FOG WAS A POSSIBLE OCCURRENCE TONIGHT WHERE SNOW HAD
FALLEN IN THE NORTH BUT WITH REMAINING CLOUD COVER AND WINDS
SLIGHTLY UP...WILL LIKELY NOT DEVELOP MORE THAN PATCHY INSTANCES IF
AT ALL SO LEFT THIS OUT OF THE FORECAST.

CONCERNING SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE APPROACHING CLIPPER
SYSTEM...MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRY WITH THIS FEATURE AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER BUT WILL STILL SEEM TO BE DEALING WITH SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY AS
THIS FRONT ARRIVES. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES UP INTO
THE 40S DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY BEFORE THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN
SUNDAY NIGHT. DEALING WITH A CONVECTIVE PROCESS AND THE RIGHT WIND
DIRECTION FOR UPSLOPE FLOW WILL MAKE FOR THE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. AS THE CASE IN THESE EVENTS...THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE
IN THE COLUMN DOES BEGIN TO EXIT COME MONDAY AFTERNOON DURING THE
UPSLOPE PORTION OF THIS EVENT SO SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE LIMITED FOR
THE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY PERIOD. RIGHT NOW THINKING THAT
THE VALLEYS AND THE BLUEGRASS REGION WILL BE UNDER AN INCH TOTAL WITH
MORE THAN AN INCH ABOVE 2000 FEET. WILL MENTION THIS THREAT IN THE
HWO BUT THE OCCURRENCE BEING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MAY REQUIRE SOME
FURTHER CONSIDERATION TO HIGHLIGHT THE IMPACT TO THE MORNING COMMUTE
ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

A RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS
WERE IN GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE FORECAST WAS KEPT VERY
CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND. AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM EASTERN CANADA INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND EASTERN SEABOARD. MEANWHILE A RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM MEXICO NORTH INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
LEAD TO NW FLOW ALOFT INITIALLY WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES EXPECTED
TO DROP DOWN ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION AND APPALACHIANS. THE
TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
BY MIDWEEK...WITH THE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST TO THE PLAINS STATES AND
EVENTUALLY OH VALLEY REGION. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE
RIDGE AND A TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT
OVER THE PLAINS AT MIDWEEK AND THE RESULTING TROUGH SHOULD DAMPEN
THE RIDGE AND APPROACH THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY REGION ON THU INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH OF
THE OH RIVER AND THEN INTO THE NORTHEAST OR MID ATLANTIC STATES.
THIS WOULD BRING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS EAST KY ON THU TO THU
EVENING.

FROM FRI INTO SATURDAY..THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR SOME FLATTENING
OF THE FLOW AT LEAST BRIEFLY FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS
THOUGH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

THE SHORTWAVES IN NW FLOW SHOULD BRING AT LEAST PERIODS OF CLOUDS OR
PROLONG CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINING
AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR THE MON
NIGHT TO TUE PERIOD WITH THE 12Z GFS RECENT NAM RUNS ARE ALSO MORE
MOIST THE 12Z ECMWF. SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AS WELL AS SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY DURING DAYTIME HEATING ON TUE
WHICH WOULD STEEPEN LAPSE RATES. ANY SNOW SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE AT
LEAST SOME LOCALIZED LIGHT AMOUNTS MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. FOR
POPS DURING THIS PERIOD...WENT A BIT HIGHER THAN THE MODEL BLEND
CLOSER TO PERSISTENCE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BRIEFLY AT MIDWEEK.

FOR LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU...AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION
WETBULBING COULD LEAD TO A MIX WITH SNOW DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY IT
ARRIVES. HOWEVER...ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN
AS MOSTLY IF NOT ENTIRELY RAIN UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR TUE INTO WED...BUT THEN
MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL ON THU IN BETWEEN SYSTEM UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WEAK RIDGING. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND COLD
FRONT...TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 101 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST CONTINUES TO
EXIT...ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE DOWN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE LOWER OH VALLEY KEEPING IFR AND MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT. SOME BREAKS MAY OCCUR
BETWEEN NOW AND LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING BUT SHOULD REMAIN OVERCAST AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER








000
FXUS63 KJKL 242118
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
418 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SOME EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH. WITH
THIS HAS BEEN SOME LIGHT FLURRY ACTIVITY OR SPRINKLES MAINLY TAKING
AIM OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. WILL KEEP A
MENTION OF FLURRIES AND A POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWER OVER THE AREA AND
ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST IN MARTIN AND PIKE COUNTY. WITH THIS
FEATURE...CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING
AND THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES SUPPRESSED THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY BUT WITH WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST REMAINING UP IN MOST
LOCATIONS TONIGHT...WILL LOOK LIKE TEMPS MAY REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...SOME CONCERN HERE WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTH WHERE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER MAY RESULT IN TEMPS
FALLING FURTHER...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. AS WELL...SOME CONCERN
FOR PATCHY FOG WAS A POSSIBLE OCCURRENCE TONIGHT WHERE SNOW HAD
FALLEN IN THE NORTH BUT WITH REMAINING CLOUD COVER AND WINDS
SLIGHTLY UP...WILL LIKELY NOT DEVELOP MORE THAN PATCHY INSTANCES IF
AT ALL SO LEFT THIS OUT OF THE FORECAST.

CONCERNING SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE APPROACHING CLIPPER
SYSTEM...MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRY WITH THIS FEATURE AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER BUT WILL STILL SEEM TO BE DEALING WITH SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY AS
THIS FRONT ARRIVES. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES UP INTO
THE 40S DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY BEFORE THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN
SUNDAY NIGHT. DEALING WITH A CONVECTIVE PROCESS AND THE RIGHT WIND
DIRECTION FOR UPSLOPE FLOW WILL MAKE FOR THE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. AS THE CASE IN THESE EVENTS...THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE
IN THE COLUMN DOES BEGIN TO EXIT COME MONDAY AFTERNOON DURING THE
UPSLOPE PORTION OF THIS EVENT SO SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE LIMITED FOR
THE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY PERIOD. RIGHT NOW THINKING THAT
THE VALLEYS AND THE BLUEGRASS REGION WILL BE UNDER AN INCH TOTAL WITH
MORE THAN AN INCH ABOVE 2000 FEET. WILL MENTION THIS THREAT IN THE
HWO BUT THE OCCURRENCE BEING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MAY REQUIRE SOME
FURTHER CONSIDERATION TO HIGHLIGHT THE IMPACT TO THE MORNING COMMUTE
ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

A RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS
WERE IN GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE FORECAST WAS KEPT VERY
CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND. AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM EASTERN CANADA INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND EASTERN SEABOARD. MEANWHILE A RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM MEXICO NORTH INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
LEAD TO NW FLOW ALOFT INITIALLY WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES EXPECTED
TO DROP DOWN ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION AND APPALACHIANS. THE
TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
BY MIDWEEK...WITH THE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST TO THE PLAINS STATES AND
EVENTUALLY OH VALLEY REGION. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE
RIDGE AND A TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT
OVER THE PLAINS AT MIDWEEK AND THE RESULTING TROUGH SHOULD DAMPEN
THE RIDGE AND APPROACH THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY REGION ON THU INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH OF
THE OH RIVER AND THEN INTO THE NORTHEAST OR MID ATLANTIC STATES.
THIS WOULD BRING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS EAST KY ON THU TO THU
EVENING.

FROM FRI INTO SATURDAY..THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR SOME FLATTENING
OF THE FLOW AT LEAST BRIEFLY FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS
THOUGH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

THE SHORTWAVES IN NW FLOW SHOULD BRING AT LEAST PERIODS OF CLOUDS OR
PROLONG CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINING
AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR THE MON
NIGHT TO TUE PERIOD WITH THE 12Z GFS RECENT NAM RUNS ARE ALSO MORE
MOIST THE 12Z ECMWF. SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AS WELL AS SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY DURING DAYTIME HEATING ON TUE
WHICH WOULD STEEPEN LAPSE RATES. ANY SNOW SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE AT
LEAST SOME LOCALIZED LIGHT AMOUNTS MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. FOR
POPS DURING THIS PERIOD...WENT A BIT HIGHER THAN THE MODEL BLEND
CLOSER TO PERSISTENCE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BRIEFLY AT MIDWEEK.

FOR LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU...AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION
WETBULBING COULD LEAD TO A MIX WITH SNOW DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY IT
ARRIVES. HOWEVER...ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN
AS MOSTLY IF NOT ENTIRELY RAIN UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR TUE INTO WED...BUT THEN
MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL ON THU IN BETWEEN SYSTEM UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WEAK RIDGING. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND COLD
FRONT...TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 101 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST CONTINUES TO
EXIT...ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE DOWN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE LOWER OH VALLEY KEEPING IFR AND MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT. SOME BREAKS MAY OCCUR
BETWEEN NOW AND LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING BUT SHOULD REMAIN OVERCAST AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER







000
FXUS63 KJKL 242118
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
418 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SOME EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH. WITH
THIS HAS BEEN SOME LIGHT FLURRY ACTIVITY OR SPRINKLES MAINLY TAKING
AIM OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. WILL KEEP A
MENTION OF FLURRIES AND A POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWER OVER THE AREA AND
ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST IN MARTIN AND PIKE COUNTY. WITH THIS
FEATURE...CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING
AND THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES SUPPRESSED THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY BUT WITH WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST REMAINING UP IN MOST
LOCATIONS TONIGHT...WILL LOOK LIKE TEMPS MAY REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...SOME CONCERN HERE WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTH WHERE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER MAY RESULT IN TEMPS
FALLING FURTHER...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. AS WELL...SOME CONCERN
FOR PATCHY FOG WAS A POSSIBLE OCCURRENCE TONIGHT WHERE SNOW HAD
FALLEN IN THE NORTH BUT WITH REMAINING CLOUD COVER AND WINDS
SLIGHTLY UP...WILL LIKELY NOT DEVELOP MORE THAN PATCHY INSTANCES IF
AT ALL SO LEFT THIS OUT OF THE FORECAST.

CONCERNING SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE APPROACHING CLIPPER
SYSTEM...MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRY WITH THIS FEATURE AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER BUT WILL STILL SEEM TO BE DEALING WITH SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY AS
THIS FRONT ARRIVES. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES UP INTO
THE 40S DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY BEFORE THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN
SUNDAY NIGHT. DEALING WITH A CONVECTIVE PROCESS AND THE RIGHT WIND
DIRECTION FOR UPSLOPE FLOW WILL MAKE FOR THE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. AS THE CASE IN THESE EVENTS...THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE
IN THE COLUMN DOES BEGIN TO EXIT COME MONDAY AFTERNOON DURING THE
UPSLOPE PORTION OF THIS EVENT SO SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE LIMITED FOR
THE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY PERIOD. RIGHT NOW THINKING THAT
THE VALLEYS AND THE BLUEGRASS REGION WILL BE UNDER AN INCH TOTAL WITH
MORE THAN AN INCH ABOVE 2000 FEET. WILL MENTION THIS THREAT IN THE
HWO BUT THE OCCURRENCE BEING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MAY REQUIRE SOME
FURTHER CONSIDERATION TO HIGHLIGHT THE IMPACT TO THE MORNING COMMUTE
ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

A RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS
WERE IN GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE FORECAST WAS KEPT VERY
CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND. AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM EASTERN CANADA INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND EASTERN SEABOARD. MEANWHILE A RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM MEXICO NORTH INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
LEAD TO NW FLOW ALOFT INITIALLY WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES EXPECTED
TO DROP DOWN ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION AND APPALACHIANS. THE
TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
BY MIDWEEK...WITH THE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST TO THE PLAINS STATES AND
EVENTUALLY OH VALLEY REGION. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE
RIDGE AND A TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT
OVER THE PLAINS AT MIDWEEK AND THE RESULTING TROUGH SHOULD DAMPEN
THE RIDGE AND APPROACH THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY REGION ON THU INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH OF
THE OH RIVER AND THEN INTO THE NORTHEAST OR MID ATLANTIC STATES.
THIS WOULD BRING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS EAST KY ON THU TO THU
EVENING.

FROM FRI INTO SATURDAY..THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR SOME FLATTENING
OF THE FLOW AT LEAST BRIEFLY FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS
THOUGH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

THE SHORTWAVES IN NW FLOW SHOULD BRING AT LEAST PERIODS OF CLOUDS OR
PROLONG CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINING
AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR THE MON
NIGHT TO TUE PERIOD WITH THE 12Z GFS RECENT NAM RUNS ARE ALSO MORE
MOIST THE 12Z ECMWF. SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AS WELL AS SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY DURING DAYTIME HEATING ON TUE
WHICH WOULD STEEPEN LAPSE RATES. ANY SNOW SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE AT
LEAST SOME LOCALIZED LIGHT AMOUNTS MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. FOR
POPS DURING THIS PERIOD...WENT A BIT HIGHER THAN THE MODEL BLEND
CLOSER TO PERSISTENCE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BRIEFLY AT MIDWEEK.

FOR LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU...AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION
WETBULBING COULD LEAD TO A MIX WITH SNOW DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY IT
ARRIVES. HOWEVER...ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN
AS MOSTLY IF NOT ENTIRELY RAIN UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR TUE INTO WED...BUT THEN
MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL ON THU IN BETWEEN SYSTEM UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WEAK RIDGING. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND COLD
FRONT...TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 101 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST CONTINUES TO
EXIT...ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE DOWN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE LOWER OH VALLEY KEEPING IFR AND MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT. SOME BREAKS MAY OCCUR
BETWEEN NOW AND LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING BUT SHOULD REMAIN OVERCAST AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER







000
FXUS63 KJKL 242116
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
416 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SOME EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH. WITH
THIS HAS BEEN SOME LIGHT FLURRY ACTIVITY OR SPRINKLES MAINLY TAKING
AIM OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. WILL KEEP A
MENTION OF FLURRIES AND A POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWER OVER THE AREA AND
ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST IN MARTIN AND PIKE COUNTY. WITH THIS
FEATURE...CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING
AND THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES SUPPRESSED THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY BUT WITH WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST REMAINING UP IN MOST
LOCATIONS TONIGHT...WILL LOOK LIKE TEMPS MAY REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...SOME CONCERN HERE WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTH WHERE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER MAY RESULT IN TEMPS
FALLING FURTHER...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. AS WELL...SOME CONCERN
FOR PATCHY FOG WAS A POSSIBLE OCCURRENCE TONIGHT WHERE SNOW HAD
FALLEN IN THE NORTH BUT WITH REMAINING CLOUD COVER AND WINDS
SLIGHTLY UP...WILL LIKELY NOT DEVELOP MORE THAN PATCHY INSTANCES IF
AT ALL SO LEFT THIS OUT OF THE FORECAST.

CONCERNING SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE APPROACHING CLIPPER
SYSTEM...MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRY WITH THIS FEATURE AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER BUT WILL STILL SEEM TO BE DEALING WITH SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY AS
THIS FRONT ARRIVES. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES UP INTO
THE 40S DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY BEFORE THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN
SUNDAY NIGHT. DEALING WITH A CONVECTIVE PROCESS AND THE RIGHT WIND
DIRECTION FOR UPSLOPE FLOW WILL MAKE FOR THE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. AS THE CASE IN THESE EVENTS...THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE
IN THE COLUMN DOES BEGIN TO EXIT COME MONDAY AFTERNOON DURING THE
UPSLOPE PORTION OF THIS EVENT SO SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE LIMITED FOR
THE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY PERIOD. RIGHT NOW THINKING THAT
THE VALLEYS AND THE BLUEGRASS REGION WILL BE UNDER AN INCH TOTAL WITH
MORE THAN AN INCH ABOVE 2000 FEET. WILL MENTION THIS THREAT IN THE
HWO BUT THE OCCURRENCE BEING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MAY REQUIRE SOME
FURTHER CONSIDERATION TO HIGHLIGHT THE IMPACT TO THE MORNING COMMUTE
ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 101 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST CONTINUES TO
EXIT...ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE DOWN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE LOWER OH VALLEY KEEPING IFR AND MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT. SOME BREAKS MAY OCCUR
BETWEEN NOW AND LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING BUT SHOULD REMAIN OVERCAST AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER







000
FXUS63 KJKL 242116
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
416 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SOME EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH. WITH
THIS HAS BEEN SOME LIGHT FLURRY ACTIVITY OR SPRINKLES MAINLY TAKING
AIM OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. WILL KEEP A
MENTION OF FLURRIES AND A POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWER OVER THE AREA AND
ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST IN MARTIN AND PIKE COUNTY. WITH THIS
FEATURE...CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING
AND THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES SUPPRESSED THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY BUT WITH WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST REMAINING UP IN MOST
LOCATIONS TONIGHT...WILL LOOK LIKE TEMPS MAY REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...SOME CONCERN HERE WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTH WHERE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER MAY RESULT IN TEMPS
FALLING FURTHER...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. AS WELL...SOME CONCERN
FOR PATCHY FOG WAS A POSSIBLE OCCURRENCE TONIGHT WHERE SNOW HAD
FALLEN IN THE NORTH BUT WITH REMAINING CLOUD COVER AND WINDS
SLIGHTLY UP...WILL LIKELY NOT DEVELOP MORE THAN PATCHY INSTANCES IF
AT ALL SO LEFT THIS OUT OF THE FORECAST.

CONCERNING SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE APPROACHING CLIPPER
SYSTEM...MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRY WITH THIS FEATURE AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER BUT WILL STILL SEEM TO BE DEALING WITH SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY AS
THIS FRONT ARRIVES. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES UP INTO
THE 40S DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY BEFORE THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN
SUNDAY NIGHT. DEALING WITH A CONVECTIVE PROCESS AND THE RIGHT WIND
DIRECTION FOR UPSLOPE FLOW WILL MAKE FOR THE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. AS THE CASE IN THESE EVENTS...THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE
IN THE COLUMN DOES BEGIN TO EXIT COME MONDAY AFTERNOON DURING THE
UPSLOPE PORTION OF THIS EVENT SO SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE LIMITED FOR
THE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY PERIOD. RIGHT NOW THINKING THAT
THE VALLEYS AND THE BLUEGRASS REGION WILL BE UNDER AN INCH TOTAL WITH
MORE THAN AN INCH ABOVE 2000 FEET. WILL MENTION THIS THREAT IN THE
HWO BUT THE OCCURRENCE BEING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MAY REQUIRE SOME
FURTHER CONSIDERATION TO HIGHLIGHT THE IMPACT TO THE MORNING COMMUTE
ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 101 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST CONTINUES TO
EXIT...ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE DOWN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE LOWER OH VALLEY KEEPING IFR AND MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT. SOME BREAKS MAY OCCUR
BETWEEN NOW AND LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING BUT SHOULD REMAIN OVERCAST AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER








000
FXUS63 KJKL 241802
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
102 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 101 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE AREA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON IS KEEPING MAX TEMPS A BIT LOWER THAN ANTICIPATED. HAVE
LOWERED TEMPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO. OTHERWISE THE
LATEST OBS HAVE BEEN LOADED AND A NEW ZFP WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1030 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE BULK OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL HAS FINALLY
EXITED TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. BEHIND THIS...SOME FLURRIES OR
SPRINKLES WILL LINGER INTO THE NOONTIME HOURS AS TEMPS RISE A BIT.
SOME OTHER CONCERNS THIS MORNING WILL BE THE SLIGHTLY LONGER
LINGERING CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH COOLER AIR. DUE TO THIS AND SOME
SNOW COVER OVER THE AREA...HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AS FEW IF ANY LOCATIONS MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S TODAY. HAVE
UPLOADED THE LATEST OBS AND ALSO CANCELED THE WSW OVER THE EAST AS
WELL. THESE CHANGES HAVE REQUIRED A NEW ZFP.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 534 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT EXPIRING NORTHERN WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
THE HEAVIEST BAND OF PRECIP HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA...HOWEVER THIS
WAS REPLACED WITH SPS GIVEN THAT SLICK CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WSR-88D
SHOWS HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW IS GENERALLY ON A LINE FROM SANDY
HOOK...JACKSON...TO PINEVILLE THIS HOUR. THIS BAND OF SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST THIS MORNING. DID FRESHEN UP GRIDS WITH
LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

WSR-88D CONTINUES TO SHOW AREAS OF SNOW AND RAIN MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE CWA THIS MORNING. MOST SPOTS HAVE TRANSITIONED TO SNOW WITH A
FEW SPOTS STILL SEEING A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR RAIN ACROSS THE FAR SE
AND EAST. THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP IS NOW MOVING INTO THE FAR
WESTERN AND NORTHERN EDGES OF THE CWA AND WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE
REGION THOUGH THE MORNING. MUCH OF THIS BAND WILL PROGRESS EAST OF
THE REGION BY 15Z AS DRYER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. SOME AREAS
BACK TO THE WEST OF THE REGION ARE EVEN SEEING SOME CLEARING WITH LMK
ASOS SEEING SCATTERED SKIES AT 27 KFT THIS HOUR. THIS LOW PRESSURE
AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL PROGRESS NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING.
SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE MOVING INTO THE AFTERNOON SEEN IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS BEFORE WE SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT
FALL BACK INTO THE LOWER 30S.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO NEXT SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS FOR SUNDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE REGION FROM NW TO SE AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIP LOOK TO BE SUNDAY
NIGHT WHICH WILL BE DISCUSSED IN LONG RANGE PORTION OF THE AFD. GIVEN
WARMER AIR IN PLACE ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT
WITH AMTS GENERALLY AROUND A TENTH TO FIFTEEN HUNDREDTHS OF A INCH ON
SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST BEFORE
THIS GENERAL CONSENSUS BREAKS DOWN BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. EVEN EARLY ON...
THE SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVE DETAILS DIFFERED MORE THAN TYPICAL...
THOUGH. THE GFS IS STRONGEST WITH A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH CROSSING
KENTUCKY SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF WAS A TAD WEAKER AND LESS CUT
OFF. THE GFS MAINTAINS THIS STRONGER WAVE THROUGH MONDAY AS IT RIDES
TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL LEAVE KENTUCKY IN THE MIDST OF FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF ENERGY PULSING OVER THE
REGION. ANY SLIGHT BUCKLE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FLOW WILL HOLD THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT PCPN THROUGH MID WEEK AS IT CURLS AROUND A
TROUGH...NOW REPRESENTED STRONGEST IN THE ECMWF...OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. HEIGHTS WILL FINALLY START TO RISE OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY ON WEDNESDAY AS WEAKENING RIDGING SLIDES INTO THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. WITHIN THIS AREA OF RELAXED HEIGHTS TROUGHING
WILL DEVELOP AND HEAD FOR THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY...THOUGH
STRONGER IN THE ECMWF THAN THE GFS. THE ECMWF THEN DIGS THE CORE OF
THIS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING SYSTEM THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. FLATTER FLOW FOLLOWS...PARTICULARLY IN THE GFS...FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WILL FAVOR A GENERAL MODEL BLEND
THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF THEREAFTER.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD OF MAINLY MINOR
PCPN EVENTS THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT ONE TO IMPACT THE AREA
WILL BE A LOW SETTLING THROUGH KENTUCKY ON A JUST SOUTH OF EAST
COURSE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS STEADY STATE SFC LOW WILL PASS
RIGHT OVER EAST KENTUCKY BY MONDAY MORNING. AS IT DOES SO IT WILL
CHANGE WHATEVER PCPN IT MANAGES TO BRING WITH IT OVER TO SNOW. THIS
LOW WILL FINALLY START TO DEEPEN OFF THE EAST COAST BY THAT EVENING
AND THE COMBINATION OF THIS...ALONG WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND MOISTURE
OFF THE LAKES BENEATH THAT STREAM OF MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN EPISODES OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING INTO THE DAY TUESDAY FOR
AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DRY US
OUT AND WARM THE REGION A BIT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BENEATH THOSE
RISING HEIGHTS...BUT THE NEXT SFC LOW WILL BE INBOUND FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST BY DAWN. THIS LATTER LOW WILL BRING CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW
TO THE AREA THAT WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AT LEAST
IN THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA.

THE CR GRID LOAD PROVIDED A RELATIVELY DECENT START FOR THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WITH CHANGES MAINLY MADE IN THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED
TO HIT THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH LAKE MOISTURE AND THE RELATIVELY WEAK
SFC LOW A LITTLE BETTER. DID ALSO MAKE SOME MINOR RIDGE AND VALLEY
TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FOR LOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 101 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST CONTINUES TO
EXIT...ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE DOWN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE LOWER OH VALLEY KEEPING IFR AND MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT. SOME BREAKS MAY OCCUR
BETWEEN NOW AND LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING BUT SHOULD REMAIN OVERCAST AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER








000
FXUS63 KJKL 241802
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
102 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 101 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE AREA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON IS KEEPING MAX TEMPS A BIT LOWER THAN ANTICIPATED. HAVE
LOWERED TEMPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO. OTHERWISE THE
LATEST OBS HAVE BEEN LOADED AND A NEW ZFP WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1030 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE BULK OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL HAS FINALLY
EXITED TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. BEHIND THIS...SOME FLURRIES OR
SPRINKLES WILL LINGER INTO THE NOONTIME HOURS AS TEMPS RISE A BIT.
SOME OTHER CONCERNS THIS MORNING WILL BE THE SLIGHTLY LONGER
LINGERING CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH COOLER AIR. DUE TO THIS AND SOME
SNOW COVER OVER THE AREA...HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AS FEW IF ANY LOCATIONS MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S TODAY. HAVE
UPLOADED THE LATEST OBS AND ALSO CANCELED THE WSW OVER THE EAST AS
WELL. THESE CHANGES HAVE REQUIRED A NEW ZFP.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 534 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT EXPIRING NORTHERN WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
THE HEAVIEST BAND OF PRECIP HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA...HOWEVER THIS
WAS REPLACED WITH SPS GIVEN THAT SLICK CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WSR-88D
SHOWS HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW IS GENERALLY ON A LINE FROM SANDY
HOOK...JACKSON...TO PINEVILLE THIS HOUR. THIS BAND OF SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST THIS MORNING. DID FRESHEN UP GRIDS WITH
LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

WSR-88D CONTINUES TO SHOW AREAS OF SNOW AND RAIN MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE CWA THIS MORNING. MOST SPOTS HAVE TRANSITIONED TO SNOW WITH A
FEW SPOTS STILL SEEING A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR RAIN ACROSS THE FAR SE
AND EAST. THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP IS NOW MOVING INTO THE FAR
WESTERN AND NORTHERN EDGES OF THE CWA AND WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE
REGION THOUGH THE MORNING. MUCH OF THIS BAND WILL PROGRESS EAST OF
THE REGION BY 15Z AS DRYER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. SOME AREAS
BACK TO THE WEST OF THE REGION ARE EVEN SEEING SOME CLEARING WITH LMK
ASOS SEEING SCATTERED SKIES AT 27 KFT THIS HOUR. THIS LOW PRESSURE
AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL PROGRESS NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING.
SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE MOVING INTO THE AFTERNOON SEEN IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS BEFORE WE SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT
FALL BACK INTO THE LOWER 30S.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO NEXT SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS FOR SUNDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE REGION FROM NW TO SE AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIP LOOK TO BE SUNDAY
NIGHT WHICH WILL BE DISCUSSED IN LONG RANGE PORTION OF THE AFD. GIVEN
WARMER AIR IN PLACE ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT
WITH AMTS GENERALLY AROUND A TENTH TO FIFTEEN HUNDREDTHS OF A INCH ON
SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST BEFORE
THIS GENERAL CONSENSUS BREAKS DOWN BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. EVEN EARLY ON...
THE SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVE DETAILS DIFFERED MORE THAN TYPICAL...
THOUGH. THE GFS IS STRONGEST WITH A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH CROSSING
KENTUCKY SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF WAS A TAD WEAKER AND LESS CUT
OFF. THE GFS MAINTAINS THIS STRONGER WAVE THROUGH MONDAY AS IT RIDES
TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL LEAVE KENTUCKY IN THE MIDST OF FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF ENERGY PULSING OVER THE
REGION. ANY SLIGHT BUCKLE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FLOW WILL HOLD THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT PCPN THROUGH MID WEEK AS IT CURLS AROUND A
TROUGH...NOW REPRESENTED STRONGEST IN THE ECMWF...OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. HEIGHTS WILL FINALLY START TO RISE OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY ON WEDNESDAY AS WEAKENING RIDGING SLIDES INTO THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. WITHIN THIS AREA OF RELAXED HEIGHTS TROUGHING
WILL DEVELOP AND HEAD FOR THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY...THOUGH
STRONGER IN THE ECMWF THAN THE GFS. THE ECMWF THEN DIGS THE CORE OF
THIS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING SYSTEM THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. FLATTER FLOW FOLLOWS...PARTICULARLY IN THE GFS...FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WILL FAVOR A GENERAL MODEL BLEND
THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF THEREAFTER.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD OF MAINLY MINOR
PCPN EVENTS THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT ONE TO IMPACT THE AREA
WILL BE A LOW SETTLING THROUGH KENTUCKY ON A JUST SOUTH OF EAST
COURSE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS STEADY STATE SFC LOW WILL PASS
RIGHT OVER EAST KENTUCKY BY MONDAY MORNING. AS IT DOES SO IT WILL
CHANGE WHATEVER PCPN IT MANAGES TO BRING WITH IT OVER TO SNOW. THIS
LOW WILL FINALLY START TO DEEPEN OFF THE EAST COAST BY THAT EVENING
AND THE COMBINATION OF THIS...ALONG WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND MOISTURE
OFF THE LAKES BENEATH THAT STREAM OF MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN EPISODES OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING INTO THE DAY TUESDAY FOR
AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DRY US
OUT AND WARM THE REGION A BIT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BENEATH THOSE
RISING HEIGHTS...BUT THE NEXT SFC LOW WILL BE INBOUND FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST BY DAWN. THIS LATTER LOW WILL BRING CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW
TO THE AREA THAT WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AT LEAST
IN THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA.

THE CR GRID LOAD PROVIDED A RELATIVELY DECENT START FOR THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WITH CHANGES MAINLY MADE IN THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED
TO HIT THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH LAKE MOISTURE AND THE RELATIVELY WEAK
SFC LOW A LITTLE BETTER. DID ALSO MAKE SOME MINOR RIDGE AND VALLEY
TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FOR LOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 101 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST CONTINUES TO
EXIT...ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE DOWN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE LOWER OH VALLEY KEEPING IFR AND MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT. SOME BREAKS MAY OCCUR
BETWEEN NOW AND LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING BUT SHOULD REMAIN OVERCAST AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER







000
FXUS63 KJKL 241530
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1030 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1030 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE BULK OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL HAS FINALLY
EXITED TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. BEHIND THIS...SOME FLURRIES OR
SPRINKLES WILL LINGER INTO THE NOONTIME HOURS AS TEMPS RISE A BIT.
SOME OTHER CONCERNS THIS MORNING WILL BE THE SLIGHTLY LONGER
LINGERING CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH COOLER AIR. DUE TO THIS AND SOME
SNOW COVER OVER THE AREA...HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AS FEW IF ANY LOCATIONS MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S TODAY. HAVE
UPLOADED THE LATEST OBS AND ALSO CANCELED THE WSW OVER THE EAST AS
WELL. THESE CHANGES HAVE REQUIRED A NEW ZFP.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 534 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT EXPIRING NORTHERN WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
THE HEAVIEST BAND OF PRECIP HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA...HOWEVER THIS
WAS REPLACED WITH SPS GIVEN THAT SLICK CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WSR-88D
SHOWS HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW IS GENERALLY ON A LINE FROM SANDY
HOOK...JACKSON...TO PINEVILLE THIS HOUR. THIS BAND OF SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST THIS MORNING. DID FRESHEN UP GRIDS WITH
LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

WSR-88D CONTINUES TO SHOW AREAS OF SNOW AND RAIN MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE CWA THIS MORNING. MOST SPOTS HAVE TRANSITIONED TO SNOW WITH A
FEW SPOTS STILL SEEING A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR RAIN ACROSS THE FAR SE
AND EAST. THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP IS NOW MOVING INTO THE FAR
WESTERN AND NORTHERN EDGES OF THE CWA AND WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE
REGION THOUGH THE MORNING. MUCH OF THIS BAND WILL PROGRESS EAST OF
THE REGION BY 15Z AS DRYER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. SOME AREAS
BACK TO THE WEST OF THE REGION ARE EVEN SEEING SOME CLEARING WITH LMK
ASOS SEEING SCATTERED SKIES AT 27 KFT THIS HOUR. THIS LOW PRESSURE
AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL PROGRESS NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING.
SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE MOVING INTO THE AFTERNOON SEEN IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS BEFORE WE SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT
FALL BACK INTO THE LOWER 30S.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO NEXT SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS FOR SUNDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE REGION FROM NW TO SE AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIP LOOK TO BE SUNDAY
NIGHT WHICH WILL BE DISCUSSED IN LONG RANGE PORTION OF THE AFD. GIVEN
WARMER AIR IN PLACE ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT
WITH AMTS GENERALLY AROUND A TENTH TO FIFTEEN HUNDREDTHS OF A INCH ON
SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST BEFORE
THIS GENERAL CONSENSUS BREAKS DOWN BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. EVEN EARLY ON...
THE SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVE DETAILS DIFFERED MORE THAN TYPICAL...
THOUGH. THE GFS IS STRONGEST WITH A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH CROSSING
KENTUCKY SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF WAS A TAD WEAKER AND LESS CUT
OFF. THE GFS MAINTAINS THIS STRONGER WAVE THROUGH MONDAY AS IT RIDES
TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL LEAVE KENTUCKY IN THE MIDST OF FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF ENERGY PULSING OVER THE
REGION. ANY SLIGHT BUCKLE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FLOW WILL HOLD THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT PCPN THROUGH MID WEEK AS IT CURLS AROUND A
TROUGH...NOW REPRESENTED STRONGEST IN THE ECMWF...OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. HEIGHTS WILL FINALLY START TO RISE OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY ON WEDNESDAY AS WEAKENING RIDGING SLIDES INTO THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. WITHIN THIS AREA OF RELAXED HEIGHTS TROUGHING
WILL DEVELOP AND HEAD FOR THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY...THOUGH
STRONGER IN THE ECMWF THAN THE GFS. THE ECMWF THEN DIGS THE CORE OF
THIS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING SYSTEM THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. FLATTER FLOW FOLLOWS...PARTICULARLY IN THE GFS...FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WILL FAVOR A GENERAL MODEL BLEND
THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF THEREAFTER.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD OF MAINLY MINOR
PCPN EVENTS THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT ONE TO IMPACT THE AREA
WILL BE A LOW SETTLING THROUGH KENTUCKY ON A JUST SOUTH OF EAST
COURSE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS STEADY STATE SFC LOW WILL PASS
RIGHT OVER EAST KENTUCKY BY MONDAY MORNING. AS IT DOES SO IT WILL
CHANGE WHATEVER PCPN IT MANAGES TO BRING WITH IT OVER TO SNOW. THIS
LOW WILL FINALLY START TO DEEPEN OFF THE EAST COAST BY THAT EVENING
AND THE COMBINATION OF THIS...ALONG WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND MOISTURE
OFF THE LAKES BENEATH THAT STREAM OF MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN EPISODES OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING INTO THE DAY TUESDAY FOR
AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DRY US
OUT AND WARM THE REGION A BIT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BENEATH THOSE
RISING HEIGHTS...BUT THE NEXT SFC LOW WILL BE INBOUND FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST BY DAWN. THIS LATTER LOW WILL BRING CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW
TO THE AREA THAT WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AT LEAST
IN THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA.

THE CR GRID LOAD PROVIDED A RELATIVELY DECENT START FOR THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WITH CHANGES MAINLY MADE IN THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED
TO HIT THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH LAKE MOISTURE AND THE RELATIVELY WEAK
SFC LOW A LITTLE BETTER. DID ALSO MAKE SOME MINOR RIDGE AND VALLEY
TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FOR LOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

MANY SITES ARE CONTINUING TO SEE IFR TO EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
THIS MORNING. THIS HAS BEEN DUE TO BANDS OF GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW THAT
HAS PROGRESSED ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND INTO THIS MORNING.
THESE BANDS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING HOUR WITH SNOW TAPERING OFF WEST TO EATS THIS MORNING. SYM
AND SME HAVE SEEN SNOW COMING TO A END THIS MORNING. SITES WILL
IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
REGION.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...DJ







000
FXUS63 KJKL 241133
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
633 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 534 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT EXPIRING NORTHERN WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
THE HEAVIEST BAND OF PRECIP HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA...HOWEVER THIS
WAS REPLACED WITH SPS GIVEN THAT SLICK CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WSR-88D
SHOWS HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW IS GENERALLY ON A LINE FROM SANDY
HOOK...JACKSON...TO PINEVILLE THIS HOUR. THIS BAND OF SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST THIS MORNING. DID FRESHEN UP GRIDS WITH
LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

WSR-88D CONTINUES TO SHOW AREAS OF SNOW AND RAIN MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE CWA THIS MORNING. MOST SPOTS HAVE TRANSITIONED TO SNOW WITH A
FEW SPOTS STILL SEEING A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR RAIN ACROSS THE FAR SE
AND EAST. THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP IS NOW MOVING INTO THE FAR
WESTERN AND NORTHERN EDGES OF THE CWA AND WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE
REGION THOUGH THE MORNING. MUCH OF THIS BAND WILL PROGRESS EAST OF
THE REGION BY 15Z AS DRYER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. SOME AREAS
BACK TO THE WEST OF THE REGION ARE EVEN SEEING SOME CLEARING WITH LMK
ASOS SEEING SCATTERED SKIES AT 27 KFT THIS HOUR. THIS LOW PRESSURE
AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL PROGRESS NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING.
SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE MOVING INTO THE AFTERNOON SEEN IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS BEFORE WE SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT
FALL BACK INTO THE LOWER 30S.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO NEXT SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS FOR SUNDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE REGION FROM NW TO SE AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIP LOOK TO BE SUNDAY
NIGHT WHICH WILL BE DISCUSSED IN LONG RANGE PORTION OF THE AFD. GIVEN
WARMER AIR IN PLACE ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT
WITH AMTS GENERALLY AROUND A TENTH TO FIFTEEN HUNDREDTHS OF A INCH ON
SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST BEFORE
THIS GENERAL CONSENSUS BREAKS DOWN BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. EVEN EARLY ON...
THE SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVE DETAILS DIFFERED MORE THAN TYPICAL...
THOUGH. THE GFS IS STRONGEST WITH A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH CROSSING
KENTUCKY SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF WAS A TAD WEAKER AND LESS CUT
OFF. THE GFS MAINTAINS THIS STRONGER WAVE THROUGH MONDAY AS IT RIDES
TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL LEAVE KENTUCKY IN THE MIDST OF FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF ENERGY PULSING OVER THE
REGION. ANY SLIGHT BUCKLE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FLOW WILL HOLD THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT PCPN THROUGH MID WEEK AS IT CURLS AROUND A
TROUGH...NOW REPRESENTED STRONGEST IN THE ECMWF...OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. HEIGHTS WILL FINALLY START TO RISE OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY ON WEDNESDAY AS WEAKENING RIDGING SLIDES INTO THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. WITHIN THIS AREA OF RELAXED HEIGHTS TROUGHING
WILL DEVELOP AND HEAD FOR THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY...THOUGH
STRONGER IN THE ECMWF THAN THE GFS. THE ECMWF THEN DIGS THE CORE OF
THIS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING SYSTEM THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. FLATTER FLOW FOLLOWS...PARTICULARLY IN THE GFS...FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WILL FAVOR A GENERAL MODEL BLEND
THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF THEREAFTER.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD OF MAINLY MINOR
PCPN EVENTS THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT ONE TO IMPACT THE AREA
WILL BE A LOW SETTLING THROUGH KENTUCKY ON A JUST SOUTH OF EAST
COURSE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS STEADY STATE SFC LOW WILL PASS
RIGHT OVER EAST KENTUCKY BY MONDAY MORNING. AS IT DOES SO IT WILL
CHANGE WHATEVER PCPN IT MANAGES TO BRING WITH IT OVER TO SNOW. THIS
LOW WILL FINALLY START TO DEEPEN OFF THE EAST COAST BY THAT EVENING
AND THE COMBINATION OF THIS...ALONG WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND MOISTURE
OFF THE LAKES BENEATH THAT STREAM OF MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN EPISODES OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING INTO THE DAY TUESDAY FOR
AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DRY US
OUT AND WARM THE REGION A BIT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BENEATH THOSE
RISING HEIGHTS...BUT THE NEXT SFC LOW WILL BE INBOUND FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST BY DAWN. THIS LATTER LOW WILL BRING CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW
TO THE AREA THAT WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AT LEAST
IN THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA.

THE CR GRID LOAD PROVIDED A RELATIVELY DECENT START FOR THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WITH CHANGES MAINLY MADE IN THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED
TO HIT THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH LAKE MOISTURE AND THE RELATIVELY WEAK
SFC LOW A LITTLE BETTER. DID ALSO MAKE SOME MINOR RIDGE AND VALLEY
TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FOR LOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

MANY SITES ARE CONTINUING TO SEE IFR TO EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
THIS MORNING. THIS HAS BEEN DUE TO BANDS OF GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW THAT
HAS PROGRESSED ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND INTO THIS MORNING.
THESE BANDS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING HOUR WITH SNOW TAPERING OFF WEST TO EATS THIS MORNING. SYM
AND SME HAVE SEEN SNOW COMING TO A END THIS MORNING. SITES WILL
IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ088-
118.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...DJ








000
FXUS63 KJKL 241133
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
633 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 534 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT EXPIRING NORTHERN WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
THE HEAVIEST BAND OF PRECIP HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA...HOWEVER THIS
WAS REPLACED WITH SPS GIVEN THAT SLICK CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WSR-88D
SHOWS HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW IS GENERALLY ON A LINE FROM SANDY
HOOK...JACKSON...TO PINEVILLE THIS HOUR. THIS BAND OF SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST THIS MORNING. DID FRESHEN UP GRIDS WITH
LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

WSR-88D CONTINUES TO SHOW AREAS OF SNOW AND RAIN MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE CWA THIS MORNING. MOST SPOTS HAVE TRANSITIONED TO SNOW WITH A
FEW SPOTS STILL SEEING A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR RAIN ACROSS THE FAR SE
AND EAST. THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP IS NOW MOVING INTO THE FAR
WESTERN AND NORTHERN EDGES OF THE CWA AND WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE
REGION THOUGH THE MORNING. MUCH OF THIS BAND WILL PROGRESS EAST OF
THE REGION BY 15Z AS DRYER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. SOME AREAS
BACK TO THE WEST OF THE REGION ARE EVEN SEEING SOME CLEARING WITH LMK
ASOS SEEING SCATTERED SKIES AT 27 KFT THIS HOUR. THIS LOW PRESSURE
AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL PROGRESS NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING.
SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE MOVING INTO THE AFTERNOON SEEN IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS BEFORE WE SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT
FALL BACK INTO THE LOWER 30S.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO NEXT SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS FOR SUNDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE REGION FROM NW TO SE AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIP LOOK TO BE SUNDAY
NIGHT WHICH WILL BE DISCUSSED IN LONG RANGE PORTION OF THE AFD. GIVEN
WARMER AIR IN PLACE ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT
WITH AMTS GENERALLY AROUND A TENTH TO FIFTEEN HUNDREDTHS OF A INCH ON
SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST BEFORE
THIS GENERAL CONSENSUS BREAKS DOWN BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. EVEN EARLY ON...
THE SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVE DETAILS DIFFERED MORE THAN TYPICAL...
THOUGH. THE GFS IS STRONGEST WITH A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH CROSSING
KENTUCKY SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF WAS A TAD WEAKER AND LESS CUT
OFF. THE GFS MAINTAINS THIS STRONGER WAVE THROUGH MONDAY AS IT RIDES
TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL LEAVE KENTUCKY IN THE MIDST OF FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF ENERGY PULSING OVER THE
REGION. ANY SLIGHT BUCKLE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FLOW WILL HOLD THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT PCPN THROUGH MID WEEK AS IT CURLS AROUND A
TROUGH...NOW REPRESENTED STRONGEST IN THE ECMWF...OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. HEIGHTS WILL FINALLY START TO RISE OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY ON WEDNESDAY AS WEAKENING RIDGING SLIDES INTO THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. WITHIN THIS AREA OF RELAXED HEIGHTS TROUGHING
WILL DEVELOP AND HEAD FOR THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY...THOUGH
STRONGER IN THE ECMWF THAN THE GFS. THE ECMWF THEN DIGS THE CORE OF
THIS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING SYSTEM THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. FLATTER FLOW FOLLOWS...PARTICULARLY IN THE GFS...FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WILL FAVOR A GENERAL MODEL BLEND
THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF THEREAFTER.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD OF MAINLY MINOR
PCPN EVENTS THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT ONE TO IMPACT THE AREA
WILL BE A LOW SETTLING THROUGH KENTUCKY ON A JUST SOUTH OF EAST
COURSE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS STEADY STATE SFC LOW WILL PASS
RIGHT OVER EAST KENTUCKY BY MONDAY MORNING. AS IT DOES SO IT WILL
CHANGE WHATEVER PCPN IT MANAGES TO BRING WITH IT OVER TO SNOW. THIS
LOW WILL FINALLY START TO DEEPEN OFF THE EAST COAST BY THAT EVENING
AND THE COMBINATION OF THIS...ALONG WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND MOISTURE
OFF THE LAKES BENEATH THAT STREAM OF MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN EPISODES OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING INTO THE DAY TUESDAY FOR
AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DRY US
OUT AND WARM THE REGION A BIT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BENEATH THOSE
RISING HEIGHTS...BUT THE NEXT SFC LOW WILL BE INBOUND FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST BY DAWN. THIS LATTER LOW WILL BRING CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW
TO THE AREA THAT WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AT LEAST
IN THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA.

THE CR GRID LOAD PROVIDED A RELATIVELY DECENT START FOR THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WITH CHANGES MAINLY MADE IN THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED
TO HIT THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH LAKE MOISTURE AND THE RELATIVELY WEAK
SFC LOW A LITTLE BETTER. DID ALSO MAKE SOME MINOR RIDGE AND VALLEY
TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FOR LOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

MANY SITES ARE CONTINUING TO SEE IFR TO EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
THIS MORNING. THIS HAS BEEN DUE TO BANDS OF GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW THAT
HAS PROGRESSED ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND INTO THIS MORNING.
THESE BANDS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING HOUR WITH SNOW TAPERING OFF WEST TO EATS THIS MORNING. SYM
AND SME HAVE SEEN SNOW COMING TO A END THIS MORNING. SITES WILL
IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ088-
118.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...DJ







000
FXUS63 KJKL 241035
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
535 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 534 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT EXPIRING NORTHERN WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
THE HEAVIEST BAND OF PRECIP HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA...HOWEVER THIS
WAS REPLACED WITH SPS GIVEN THAT SLICK CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WSR-88D
SHOWS HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW IS GENERALLY ON A LINE FROM SANDY
HOOK...JACKSON...TO PINEVILLE THIS HOUR. THIS BAND OF SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST THIS MORNING. DID FRESHEN UP GRIDS WITH
LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

WSR-88D CONTINUES TO SHOW AREAS OF SNOW AND RAIN MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE CWA THIS MORNING. MOST SPOTS HAVE TRANSITIONED TO SNOW WITH A
FEW SPOTS STILL SEEING A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR RAIN ACROSS THE FAR SE
AND EAST. THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP IS NOW MOVING INTO THE FAR
WESTERN AND NORTHERN EDGES OF THE CWA AND WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE
REGION THOUGH THE MORNING. MUCH OF THIS BAND WILL PROGRESS EAST OF
THE REGION BY 15Z AS DRYER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. SOME AREAS
BACK TO THE WEST OF THE REGION ARE EVEN SEEING SOME CLEARING WITH LMK
ASOS SEEING SCATTERED SKIES AT 27 KFT THIS HOUR. THIS LOW PRESSURE
AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL PROGRESS NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING.
SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE MOVING INTO THE AFTERNOON SEEN IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS BEFORE WE SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT
FALL BACK INTO THE LOWER 30S.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO NEXT SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS FOR SUNDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE REGION FROM NW TO SE AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIP LOOK TO BE SUNDAY
NIGHT WHICH WILL BE DISCUSSED IN LONG RANGE PORTION OF THE AFD. GIVEN
WARMER AIR IN PLACE ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT
WITH AMTS GENERALLY AROUND A TENTH TO FIFTEEN HUNDREDTHS OF A INCH ON
SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST BEFORE
THIS GENERAL CONSENSUS BREAKS DOWN BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. EVEN EARLY ON...
THE SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVE DETAILS DIFFERED MORE THAN TYPICAL...
THOUGH. THE GFS IS STRONGEST WITH A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH CROSSING
KENTUCKY SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF WAS A TAD WEAKER AND LESS CUT
OFF. THE GFS MAINTAINS THIS STRONGER WAVE THROUGH MONDAY AS IT RIDES
TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL LEAVE KENTUCKY IN THE MIDST OF FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF ENERGY PULSING OVER THE
REGION. ANY SLIGHT BUCKLE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FLOW WILL HOLD THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT PCPN THROUGH MID WEEK AS IT CURLS AROUND A
TROUGH...NOW REPRESENTED STRONGEST IN THE ECMWF...OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. HEIGHTS WILL FINALLY START TO RISE OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY ON WEDNESDAY AS WEAKENING RIDGING SLIDES INTO THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. WITHIN THIS AREA OF RELAXED HEIGHTS TROUGHING
WILL DEVELOP AND HEAD FOR THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY...THOUGH
STRONGER IN THE ECMWF THAN THE GFS. THE ECMWF THEN DIGS THE CORE OF
THIS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING SYSTEM THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. FLATTER FLOW FOLLOWS...PARTICULARLY IN THE GFS...FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WILL FAVOR A GENERAL MODEL BLEND
THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF THEREAFTER.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD OF MAINLY MINOR
PCPN EVENTS THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT ONE TO IMPACT THE AREA
WILL BE A LOW SETTLING THROUGH KENTUCKY ON A JUST SOUTH OF EAST
COURSE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS STEADY STATE SFC LOW WILL PASS
RIGHT OVER EAST KENTUCKY BY MONDAY MORNING. AS IT DOES SO IT WILL
CHANGE WHATEVER PCPN IT MANAGES TO BRING WITH IT OVER TO SNOW. THIS
LOW WILL FINALLY START TO DEEPEN OFF THE EAST COAST BY THAT EVENING
AND THE COMBINATION OF THIS...ALONG WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND MOISTURE
OFF THE LAKES BENEATH THAT STREAM OF MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN EPISODES OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING INTO THE DAY TUESDAY FOR
AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DRY US
OUT AND WARM THE REGION A BIT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BENEATH THOSE
RISING HEIGHTS...BUT THE NEXT SFC LOW WILL BE INBOUND FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST BY DAWN. THIS LATTER LOW WILL BRING CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW
TO THE AREA THAT WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AT LEAST
IN THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA.

THE CR GRID LOAD PROVIDED A RELATIVELY DECENT START FOR THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WITH CHANGES MAINLY MADE IN THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED
TO HIT THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH LAKE MOISTURE AND THE RELATIVELY WEAK
SFC LOW A LITTLE BETTER. DID ALSO MAKE SOME MINOR RIDGE AND VALLEY
TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FOR LOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

MOST SITES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SEE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS MUCH
OF OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS HAS BEEN DUE TO RAIN AND SNOW MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION AND THESE BANDS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT
ACROSS THE REGION. THESE BANDS OF PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF AS WE MOVE
INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH SITES EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE GENERALLY
BETWEEN 12 AND 16Z FROM NW TO SE. MOST SITES ARE EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION TO VFR/MVFR AS WE MOVE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ088-
118.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...DJ







000
FXUS63 KJKL 241035
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
535 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 534 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT EXPIRING NORTHERN WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
THE HEAVIEST BAND OF PRECIP HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA...HOWEVER THIS
WAS REPLACED WITH SPS GIVEN THAT SLICK CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WSR-88D
SHOWS HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW IS GENERALLY ON A LINE FROM SANDY
HOOK...JACKSON...TO PINEVILLE THIS HOUR. THIS BAND OF SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST THIS MORNING. DID FRESHEN UP GRIDS WITH
LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

WSR-88D CONTINUES TO SHOW AREAS OF SNOW AND RAIN MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE CWA THIS MORNING. MOST SPOTS HAVE TRANSITIONED TO SNOW WITH A
FEW SPOTS STILL SEEING A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR RAIN ACROSS THE FAR SE
AND EAST. THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP IS NOW MOVING INTO THE FAR
WESTERN AND NORTHERN EDGES OF THE CWA AND WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE
REGION THOUGH THE MORNING. MUCH OF THIS BAND WILL PROGRESS EAST OF
THE REGION BY 15Z AS DRYER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. SOME AREAS
BACK TO THE WEST OF THE REGION ARE EVEN SEEING SOME CLEARING WITH LMK
ASOS SEEING SCATTERED SKIES AT 27 KFT THIS HOUR. THIS LOW PRESSURE
AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL PROGRESS NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING.
SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE MOVING INTO THE AFTERNOON SEEN IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS BEFORE WE SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT
FALL BACK INTO THE LOWER 30S.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO NEXT SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS FOR SUNDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE REGION FROM NW TO SE AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIP LOOK TO BE SUNDAY
NIGHT WHICH WILL BE DISCUSSED IN LONG RANGE PORTION OF THE AFD. GIVEN
WARMER AIR IN PLACE ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT
WITH AMTS GENERALLY AROUND A TENTH TO FIFTEEN HUNDREDTHS OF A INCH ON
SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST BEFORE
THIS GENERAL CONSENSUS BREAKS DOWN BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. EVEN EARLY ON...
THE SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVE DETAILS DIFFERED MORE THAN TYPICAL...
THOUGH. THE GFS IS STRONGEST WITH A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH CROSSING
KENTUCKY SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF WAS A TAD WEAKER AND LESS CUT
OFF. THE GFS MAINTAINS THIS STRONGER WAVE THROUGH MONDAY AS IT RIDES
TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL LEAVE KENTUCKY IN THE MIDST OF FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF ENERGY PULSING OVER THE
REGION. ANY SLIGHT BUCKLE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FLOW WILL HOLD THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT PCPN THROUGH MID WEEK AS IT CURLS AROUND A
TROUGH...NOW REPRESENTED STRONGEST IN THE ECMWF...OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. HEIGHTS WILL FINALLY START TO RISE OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY ON WEDNESDAY AS WEAKENING RIDGING SLIDES INTO THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. WITHIN THIS AREA OF RELAXED HEIGHTS TROUGHING
WILL DEVELOP AND HEAD FOR THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY...THOUGH
STRONGER IN THE ECMWF THAN THE GFS. THE ECMWF THEN DIGS THE CORE OF
THIS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING SYSTEM THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. FLATTER FLOW FOLLOWS...PARTICULARLY IN THE GFS...FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WILL FAVOR A GENERAL MODEL BLEND
THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF THEREAFTER.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD OF MAINLY MINOR
PCPN EVENTS THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT ONE TO IMPACT THE AREA
WILL BE A LOW SETTLING THROUGH KENTUCKY ON A JUST SOUTH OF EAST
COURSE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS STEADY STATE SFC LOW WILL PASS
RIGHT OVER EAST KENTUCKY BY MONDAY MORNING. AS IT DOES SO IT WILL
CHANGE WHATEVER PCPN IT MANAGES TO BRING WITH IT OVER TO SNOW. THIS
LOW WILL FINALLY START TO DEEPEN OFF THE EAST COAST BY THAT EVENING
AND THE COMBINATION OF THIS...ALONG WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND MOISTURE
OFF THE LAKES BENEATH THAT STREAM OF MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN EPISODES OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING INTO THE DAY TUESDAY FOR
AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DRY US
OUT AND WARM THE REGION A BIT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BENEATH THOSE
RISING HEIGHTS...BUT THE NEXT SFC LOW WILL BE INBOUND FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST BY DAWN. THIS LATTER LOW WILL BRING CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW
TO THE AREA THAT WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AT LEAST
IN THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA.

THE CR GRID LOAD PROVIDED A RELATIVELY DECENT START FOR THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WITH CHANGES MAINLY MADE IN THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED
TO HIT THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH LAKE MOISTURE AND THE RELATIVELY WEAK
SFC LOW A LITTLE BETTER. DID ALSO MAKE SOME MINOR RIDGE AND VALLEY
TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FOR LOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

MOST SITES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SEE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS MUCH
OF OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS HAS BEEN DUE TO RAIN AND SNOW MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION AND THESE BANDS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT
ACROSS THE REGION. THESE BANDS OF PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF AS WE MOVE
INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH SITES EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE GENERALLY
BETWEEN 12 AND 16Z FROM NW TO SE. MOST SITES ARE EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION TO VFR/MVFR AS WE MOVE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ088-
118.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...DJ








000
FXUS63 KJKL 240915 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
415 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

WSR-88D CONTINUES TO SHOW AREAS OF SNOW AND RAIN MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE CWA THIS MORNING. MOST SPOTS HAVE TRANSITIONED TO SNOW WITH A
FEW SPOTS STILL SEEING A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR RAIN ACROSS THE FAR SE
AND EAST. THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP IS NOW MOVING INTO THE FAR
WESTERN AND NORTHERN EDGES OF THE CWA AND WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE
REGION THOUGH THE MORNING. MUCH OF THIS BAND WILL PROGRESS EAST OF
THE REGION BY 15Z AS DRYER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. SOME AREAS
BACK TO THE WEST OF THE REGION ARE EVEN SEEING SOME CLEARING WITH LMK
ASOS SEEING SCATTERED SKIES AT 27 KFT THIS HOUR. THIS LOW PRESSURE
AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL PROGRESS NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING.
SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE MOVING INTO THE AFTERNOON SEEN IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS BEFORE WE SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT
FALL BACK INTO THE LOWER 30S.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO NEXT SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS FOR SUNDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE REGION FROM NW TO SE AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIP LOOK TO BE SUNDAY
NIGHT WHICH WILL BE DISCUSSED IN LONG RANGE PORTION OF THE AFD. GIVEN
WARMER AIR IN PLACE ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT
WITH AMTS GENERALLY AROUND A TENTH TO FIFTEEN HUNDREDTHS OF A INCH ON
SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST BEFORE
THIS GENERAL CONSENSUS BREAKS DOWN BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. EVEN EARLY ON...
THE SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVE DETAILS DIFFERED MORE THAN TYPICAL...
THOUGH. THE GFS IS STRONGEST WITH A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH CROSSING
KENTUCKY SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF WAS A TAD WEAKER AND LESS CUT
OFF. THE GFS MAINTAINS THIS STRONGER WAVE THROUGH MONDAY AS IT RIDES
TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL LEAVE KENTUCKY IN THE MIDST OF FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF ENERGY PULSING OVER THE
REGION. ANY SLIGHT BUCKLE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FLOW WILL HOLD THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT PCPN THROUGH MID WEEK AS IT CURLS AROUND A
TROUGH...NOW REPRESENTED STRONGEST IN THE ECMWF...OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. HEIGHTS WILL FINALLY START TO RISE OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY ON WEDNESDAY AS WEAKENING RIDGING SLIDES INTO THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. WITHIN THIS AREA OF RELAXED HEIGHTS TROUGHING
WILL DEVELOP AND HEAD FOR THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY...THOUGH
STRONGER IN THE ECMWF THAN THE GFS. THE ECMWF THEN DIGS THE CORE OF
THIS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING SYSTEM THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. FLATTER FLOW FOLLOWS...PARTICULARLY IN THE GFS...FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WILL FAVOR A GENERAL MODEL BLEND
THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF THEREAFTER.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD OF MAINLY MINOR
PCPN EVENTS THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT ONE TO IMPACT THE AREA
WILL BE A LOW SETTLING THROUGH KENTUCKY ON A JUST SOUTH OF EAST
COURSE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS STEADY STATE SFC LOW WILL PASS
RIGHT OVER EAST KENTUCKY BY MONDAY MORNING. AS IT DOES SO IT WILL
CHANGE WHATEVER PCPN IT MANAGES TO BRING WITH IT OVER TO SNOW. THIS
LOW WILL FINALLY START TO DEEPEN OFF THE EAST COAST BY THAT EVENING
AND THE COMBINATION OF THIS...ALONG WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND MOISTURE
OFF THE LAKES BENEATH THAT STREAM OF MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN EPISODES OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING INTO THE DAY TUESDAY FOR
AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DRY US
OUT AND WARM THE REGION A BIT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BENEATH THOSE
RISING HEIGHTS...BUT THE NEXT SFC LOW WILL BE INBOUND FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST BY DAWN. THIS LATTER LOW WILL BRING CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW
TO THE AREA THAT WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AT LEAST
IN THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA.

THE CR GRID LOAD PROVIDED A RELATIVELY DECENT START FOR THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WITH CHANGES MAINLY MADE IN THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED
TO HIT THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH LAKE MOISTURE AND THE RELATIVELY WEAK
SFC LOW A LITTLE BETTER. DID ALSO MAKE SOME MINOR RIDGE AND VALLEY
TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FOR LOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

MOST SITES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SEE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS MUCH
OF OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS HAS BEEN DUE TO RAIN AND SNOW MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION AND THESE BANDS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT
ACROSS THE REGION. THESE BANDS OF PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF AS WE MOVE
INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH SITES EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE GENERALLY
BETWEEN 12 AND 16Z FROM NW TO SE. MOST SITES ARE EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION TO VFR/MVFR AS WE MOVE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
KYZ044-050>052-058>060.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ088-
118.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...DJ





000
FXUS63 KJKL 240915 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
415 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

WSR-88D CONTINUES TO SHOW AREAS OF SNOW AND RAIN MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE CWA THIS MORNING. MOST SPOTS HAVE TRANSITIONED TO SNOW WITH A
FEW SPOTS STILL SEEING A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR RAIN ACROSS THE FAR SE
AND EAST. THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP IS NOW MOVING INTO THE FAR
WESTERN AND NORTHERN EDGES OF THE CWA AND WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE
REGION THOUGH THE MORNING. MUCH OF THIS BAND WILL PROGRESS EAST OF
THE REGION BY 15Z AS DRYER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. SOME AREAS
BACK TO THE WEST OF THE REGION ARE EVEN SEEING SOME CLEARING WITH LMK
ASOS SEEING SCATTERED SKIES AT 27 KFT THIS HOUR. THIS LOW PRESSURE
AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL PROGRESS NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING.
SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE MOVING INTO THE AFTERNOON SEEN IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS BEFORE WE SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT
FALL BACK INTO THE LOWER 30S.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO NEXT SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS FOR SUNDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE REGION FROM NW TO SE AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIP LOOK TO BE SUNDAY
NIGHT WHICH WILL BE DISCUSSED IN LONG RANGE PORTION OF THE AFD. GIVEN
WARMER AIR IN PLACE ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT
WITH AMTS GENERALLY AROUND A TENTH TO FIFTEEN HUNDREDTHS OF A INCH ON
SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST BEFORE
THIS GENERAL CONSENSUS BREAKS DOWN BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. EVEN EARLY ON...
THE SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVE DETAILS DIFFERED MORE THAN TYPICAL...
THOUGH. THE GFS IS STRONGEST WITH A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH CROSSING
KENTUCKY SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF WAS A TAD WEAKER AND LESS CUT
OFF. THE GFS MAINTAINS THIS STRONGER WAVE THROUGH MONDAY AS IT RIDES
TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL LEAVE KENTUCKY IN THE MIDST OF FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF ENERGY PULSING OVER THE
REGION. ANY SLIGHT BUCKLE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FLOW WILL HOLD THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT PCPN THROUGH MID WEEK AS IT CURLS AROUND A
TROUGH...NOW REPRESENTED STRONGEST IN THE ECMWF...OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. HEIGHTS WILL FINALLY START TO RISE OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY ON WEDNESDAY AS WEAKENING RIDGING SLIDES INTO THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. WITHIN THIS AREA OF RELAXED HEIGHTS TROUGHING
WILL DEVELOP AND HEAD FOR THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY...THOUGH
STRONGER IN THE ECMWF THAN THE GFS. THE ECMWF THEN DIGS THE CORE OF
THIS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING SYSTEM THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. FLATTER FLOW FOLLOWS...PARTICULARLY IN THE GFS...FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WILL FAVOR A GENERAL MODEL BLEND
THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF THEREAFTER.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD OF MAINLY MINOR
PCPN EVENTS THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT ONE TO IMPACT THE AREA
WILL BE A LOW SETTLING THROUGH KENTUCKY ON A JUST SOUTH OF EAST
COURSE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS STEADY STATE SFC LOW WILL PASS
RIGHT OVER EAST KENTUCKY BY MONDAY MORNING. AS IT DOES SO IT WILL
CHANGE WHATEVER PCPN IT MANAGES TO BRING WITH IT OVER TO SNOW. THIS
LOW WILL FINALLY START TO DEEPEN OFF THE EAST COAST BY THAT EVENING
AND THE COMBINATION OF THIS...ALONG WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND MOISTURE
OFF THE LAKES BENEATH THAT STREAM OF MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN EPISODES OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING INTO THE DAY TUESDAY FOR
AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DRY US
OUT AND WARM THE REGION A BIT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BENEATH THOSE
RISING HEIGHTS...BUT THE NEXT SFC LOW WILL BE INBOUND FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST BY DAWN. THIS LATTER LOW WILL BRING CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW
TO THE AREA THAT WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AT LEAST
IN THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA.

THE CR GRID LOAD PROVIDED A RELATIVELY DECENT START FOR THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WITH CHANGES MAINLY MADE IN THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED
TO HIT THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH LAKE MOISTURE AND THE RELATIVELY WEAK
SFC LOW A LITTLE BETTER. DID ALSO MAKE SOME MINOR RIDGE AND VALLEY
TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FOR LOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

MOST SITES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SEE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS MUCH
OF OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS HAS BEEN DUE TO RAIN AND SNOW MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION AND THESE BANDS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT
ACROSS THE REGION. THESE BANDS OF PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF AS WE MOVE
INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH SITES EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE GENERALLY
BETWEEN 12 AND 16Z FROM NW TO SE. MOST SITES ARE EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION TO VFR/MVFR AS WE MOVE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
KYZ044-050>052-058>060.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ088-
118.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...DJ





000
FXUS63 KJKL 240915 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
415 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

WSR-88D CONTINUES TO SHOW AREAS OF SNOW AND RAIN MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE CWA THIS MORNING. MOST SPOTS HAVE TRANSITIONED TO SNOW WITH A
FEW SPOTS STILL SEEING A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR RAIN ACROSS THE FAR SE
AND EAST. THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP IS NOW MOVING INTO THE FAR
WESTERN AND NORTHERN EDGES OF THE CWA AND WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE
REGION THOUGH THE MORNING. MUCH OF THIS BAND WILL PROGRESS EAST OF
THE REGION BY 15Z AS DRYER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. SOME AREAS
BACK TO THE WEST OF THE REGION ARE EVEN SEEING SOME CLEARING WITH LMK
ASOS SEEING SCATTERED SKIES AT 27 KFT THIS HOUR. THIS LOW PRESSURE
AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL PROGRESS NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING.
SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE MOVING INTO THE AFTERNOON SEEN IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS BEFORE WE SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT
FALL BACK INTO THE LOWER 30S.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO NEXT SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS FOR SUNDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE REGION FROM NW TO SE AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIP LOOK TO BE SUNDAY
NIGHT WHICH WILL BE DISCUSSED IN LONG RANGE PORTION OF THE AFD. GIVEN
WARMER AIR IN PLACE ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT
WITH AMTS GENERALLY AROUND A TENTH TO FIFTEEN HUNDREDTHS OF A INCH ON
SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST BEFORE
THIS GENERAL CONSENSUS BREAKS DOWN BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. EVEN EARLY ON...
THE SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVE DETAILS DIFFERED MORE THAN TYPICAL...
THOUGH. THE GFS IS STRONGEST WITH A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH CROSSING
KENTUCKY SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF WAS A TAD WEAKER AND LESS CUT
OFF. THE GFS MAINTAINS THIS STRONGER WAVE THROUGH MONDAY AS IT RIDES
TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL LEAVE KENTUCKY IN THE MIDST OF FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF ENERGY PULSING OVER THE
REGION. ANY SLIGHT BUCKLE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FLOW WILL HOLD THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT PCPN THROUGH MID WEEK AS IT CURLS AROUND A
TROUGH...NOW REPRESENTED STRONGEST IN THE ECMWF...OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. HEIGHTS WILL FINALLY START TO RISE OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY ON WEDNESDAY AS WEAKENING RIDGING SLIDES INTO THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. WITHIN THIS AREA OF RELAXED HEIGHTS TROUGHING
WILL DEVELOP AND HEAD FOR THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY...THOUGH
STRONGER IN THE ECMWF THAN THE GFS. THE ECMWF THEN DIGS THE CORE OF
THIS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING SYSTEM THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. FLATTER FLOW FOLLOWS...PARTICULARLY IN THE GFS...FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WILL FAVOR A GENERAL MODEL BLEND
THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF THEREAFTER.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD OF MAINLY MINOR
PCPN EVENTS THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT ONE TO IMPACT THE AREA
WILL BE A LOW SETTLING THROUGH KENTUCKY ON A JUST SOUTH OF EAST
COURSE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS STEADY STATE SFC LOW WILL PASS
RIGHT OVER EAST KENTUCKY BY MONDAY MORNING. AS IT DOES SO IT WILL
CHANGE WHATEVER PCPN IT MANAGES TO BRING WITH IT OVER TO SNOW. THIS
LOW WILL FINALLY START TO DEEPEN OFF THE EAST COAST BY THAT EVENING
AND THE COMBINATION OF THIS...ALONG WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND MOISTURE
OFF THE LAKES BENEATH THAT STREAM OF MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN EPISODES OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING INTO THE DAY TUESDAY FOR
AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DRY US
OUT AND WARM THE REGION A BIT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BENEATH THOSE
RISING HEIGHTS...BUT THE NEXT SFC LOW WILL BE INBOUND FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST BY DAWN. THIS LATTER LOW WILL BRING CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW
TO THE AREA THAT WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AT LEAST
IN THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA.

THE CR GRID LOAD PROVIDED A RELATIVELY DECENT START FOR THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WITH CHANGES MAINLY MADE IN THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED
TO HIT THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH LAKE MOISTURE AND THE RELATIVELY WEAK
SFC LOW A LITTLE BETTER. DID ALSO MAKE SOME MINOR RIDGE AND VALLEY
TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FOR LOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

MOST SITES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SEE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS MUCH
OF OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS HAS BEEN DUE TO RAIN AND SNOW MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION AND THESE BANDS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT
ACROSS THE REGION. THESE BANDS OF PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF AS WE MOVE
INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH SITES EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE GENERALLY
BETWEEN 12 AND 16Z FROM NW TO SE. MOST SITES ARE EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION TO VFR/MVFR AS WE MOVE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
KYZ044-050>052-058>060.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ088-
118.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...DJ






000
FXUS63 KJKL 240915 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
415 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

WSR-88D CONTINUES TO SHOW AREAS OF SNOW AND RAIN MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE CWA THIS MORNING. MOST SPOTS HAVE TRANSITIONED TO SNOW WITH A
FEW SPOTS STILL SEEING A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR RAIN ACROSS THE FAR SE
AND EAST. THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP IS NOW MOVING INTO THE FAR
WESTERN AND NORTHERN EDGES OF THE CWA AND WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE
REGION THOUGH THE MORNING. MUCH OF THIS BAND WILL PROGRESS EAST OF
THE REGION BY 15Z AS DRYER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. SOME AREAS
BACK TO THE WEST OF THE REGION ARE EVEN SEEING SOME CLEARING WITH LMK
ASOS SEEING SCATTERED SKIES AT 27 KFT THIS HOUR. THIS LOW PRESSURE
AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL PROGRESS NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING.
SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE MOVING INTO THE AFTERNOON SEEN IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS BEFORE WE SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT
FALL BACK INTO THE LOWER 30S.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO NEXT SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS FOR SUNDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE REGION FROM NW TO SE AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIP LOOK TO BE SUNDAY
NIGHT WHICH WILL BE DISCUSSED IN LONG RANGE PORTION OF THE AFD. GIVEN
WARMER AIR IN PLACE ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT
WITH AMTS GENERALLY AROUND A TENTH TO FIFTEEN HUNDREDTHS OF A INCH ON
SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST BEFORE
THIS GENERAL CONSENSUS BREAKS DOWN BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. EVEN EARLY ON...
THE SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVE DETAILS DIFFERED MORE THAN TYPICAL...
THOUGH. THE GFS IS STRONGEST WITH A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH CROSSING
KENTUCKY SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF WAS A TAD WEAKER AND LESS CUT
OFF. THE GFS MAINTAINS THIS STRONGER WAVE THROUGH MONDAY AS IT RIDES
TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL LEAVE KENTUCKY IN THE MIDST OF FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF ENERGY PULSING OVER THE
REGION. ANY SLIGHT BUCKLE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FLOW WILL HOLD THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT PCPN THROUGH MID WEEK AS IT CURLS AROUND A
TROUGH...NOW REPRESENTED STRONGEST IN THE ECMWF...OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. HEIGHTS WILL FINALLY START TO RISE OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY ON WEDNESDAY AS WEAKENING RIDGING SLIDES INTO THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. WITHIN THIS AREA OF RELAXED HEIGHTS TROUGHING
WILL DEVELOP AND HEAD FOR THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY...THOUGH
STRONGER IN THE ECMWF THAN THE GFS. THE ECMWF THEN DIGS THE CORE OF
THIS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING SYSTEM THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. FLATTER FLOW FOLLOWS...PARTICULARLY IN THE GFS...FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WILL FAVOR A GENERAL MODEL BLEND
THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF THEREAFTER.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD OF MAINLY MINOR
PCPN EVENTS THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT ONE TO IMPACT THE AREA
WILL BE A LOW SETTLING THROUGH KENTUCKY ON A JUST SOUTH OF EAST
COURSE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS STEADY STATE SFC LOW WILL PASS
RIGHT OVER EAST KENTUCKY BY MONDAY MORNING. AS IT DOES SO IT WILL
CHANGE WHATEVER PCPN IT MANAGES TO BRING WITH IT OVER TO SNOW. THIS
LOW WILL FINALLY START TO DEEPEN OFF THE EAST COAST BY THAT EVENING
AND THE COMBINATION OF THIS...ALONG WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND MOISTURE
OFF THE LAKES BENEATH THAT STREAM OF MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN EPISODES OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING INTO THE DAY TUESDAY FOR
AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DRY US
OUT AND WARM THE REGION A BIT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BENEATH THOSE
RISING HEIGHTS...BUT THE NEXT SFC LOW WILL BE INBOUND FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST BY DAWN. THIS LATTER LOW WILL BRING CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW
TO THE AREA THAT WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AT LEAST
IN THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA.

THE CR GRID LOAD PROVIDED A RELATIVELY DECENT START FOR THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WITH CHANGES MAINLY MADE IN THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED
TO HIT THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH LAKE MOISTURE AND THE RELATIVELY WEAK
SFC LOW A LITTLE BETTER. DID ALSO MAKE SOME MINOR RIDGE AND VALLEY
TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FOR LOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

MOST SITES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SEE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS MUCH
OF OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS HAS BEEN DUE TO RAIN AND SNOW MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION AND THESE BANDS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT
ACROSS THE REGION. THESE BANDS OF PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF AS WE MOVE
INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH SITES EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE GENERALLY
BETWEEN 12 AND 16Z FROM NW TO SE. MOST SITES ARE EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION TO VFR/MVFR AS WE MOVE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
KYZ044-050>052-058>060.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ088-
118.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...DJ






000
FXUS63 KJKL 240820
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
320 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

WSR-88D CONTINUES TO SHOW AREAS OF SNOW AND RAIN MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE CWA THIS MORNING. MOST SPOTS HAVE TRANSITIONED TO SNOW WITH A
FEW SPOTS STILL SEEING A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR RAIN ACROSS THE FAR SE
AND EAST. THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP IS NOW MOVING INTO THE FAR
WESTERN AND NORTHERN EDGES OF THE CWA AND WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE
REGION THOUGH THE MORNING. MUCH OF THIS BAND WILL PROGRESS EAST OF
THE REGION BY 15Z AS DRYER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. SOME AREAS
BACK TO THE WEST OF THE REGION ARE EVEN SEEING SOME CLEARING WITH LMK
ASOS SEEING SCATTERED SKIES AT 27 KFT THIS HOUR. THIS LOW PRESSURE
AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL PROGRESS NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING.
SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE MOVING INTO THE AFTERNOON SEEN IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS BEFORE WE SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT
FALL BACK INTO THE LOWER 30S.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO NEXT SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS FOR SUNDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE REGION FROM NW TO SE AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIP LOOK TO BE SUNDAY
NIGHT WHICH WILL BE DISCUSSED IN LONG RANGE PORTION OF THE AFD. GIVEN
WARMER AIR IN PLACE ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT
WITH AMTS GENERALLY AROUND A TENTH TO FIFTEEN HUNDREDTHS OF A INCH ON
SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

AN ACTIVE AND MERIDIONAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK
FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS ARE STILL TRACKING
A SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS INTO THE OH
VALLEY AND THE GFS AND EURO BOTH SEEM TO HANDLE THIS FEATURE WELL
AND HAVE EVEN TRENDED DRIER WITH IT. A SLIGHTLY QUICKER EXIT OF THE
WAVE SEEMS POSSIBLE AS WELL. HOWEVER...IN THIS FLOW WITH A DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ANOTHER IMPULSE MAY MOVE
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE EURO AND GFS PICK
UP ON THIS FEATURE AND IT EXITS THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AS A MID LEVEL
RIDGE THEN DEVELOPS AND NOSES INTO THE AREA PROVIDING A PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PATTERN THEN WEAKENS
A BIT AS THE NEXT WAVE TAKES AIM AT THE OH VALLEY BY THURSDAY. AT
THIS TIME...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS AGAIN BY THE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY PERIOD.

THE MODEL ALL BLEND ALONG WITH THE TRENDS KEEP THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WARMER AIR
OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY SHOULD KEEP PRECIP IN ALL LIQUID FORM THROUGH
THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND MOST OF SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER GIVEN THE AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY WITH THIS FRONT...SHOULD SEE A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW A
BIT EARLIER AND SOME ACCUMULATION BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE MODEL ALL BLEND
FOLLOWS ALONG WITH THE EURO AND GFS HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
NORTHWEST WINDS SET UP...ALLOWING FOR FAVORABLE UPSLOPE THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. SOME ISSUES WITH CONSISTENCY ARISE BY LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AS A SECONDARY WAVE DIVES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BUT
THE GFS AND THE EURO ARE QUITE DIFFERENT ON HOW MUCH AND WHERE THAT
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH. A SECOND SHOT OF MOISTURE WITH
THIS WAVE IF IT MATERIALIZES WILL MEAN SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS
AND A PROLONGED EVENT POSSIBLE. ALONG WITH COLLABORATION...WILL KEEP
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE IT
SEEMS THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FIRST FRONT WILL BE
SLOW...SOME ACCUMULATION SEEMS LIKELY BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
INTO MONDAY MORNING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND IN THE NORTHWEST
BUT WILL BE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE APPROACH OF
THE COLD AIR AND DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE AS THIS WAVE TAKES SHAPE.

THE SECOND WAVE MOVES THROUGH BY TUESDAY EVENING WITH SOME HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN THE AREA. A SECOND WEAK FRONT LOOKS POISED TO
IMPACT THE AREA BY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN IN THIS
PATTERN...MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE IN QUESTION. TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE
RIGHT AROUND OR JUST BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

MOST SITES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SEE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS MUCH
OF OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS HAS BEEN DUE TO RAIN AND SNOW MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION AND THESE BANDS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT
ACROSS THE REGION. THESE BANDS OF PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF AS WE MOVE
INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH SITES EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE GENERALLY
BETWEEN 12 AND 16Z FROM NW TO SE. MOST SITES ARE EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION TO VFR/MVFR AS WE MOVE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
KYZ044-050>052-058>060.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ088-
118.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...DJ








000
FXUS63 KJKL 240820
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
320 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

WSR-88D CONTINUES TO SHOW AREAS OF SNOW AND RAIN MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE CWA THIS MORNING. MOST SPOTS HAVE TRANSITIONED TO SNOW WITH A
FEW SPOTS STILL SEEING A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR RAIN ACROSS THE FAR SE
AND EAST. THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP IS NOW MOVING INTO THE FAR
WESTERN AND NORTHERN EDGES OF THE CWA AND WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE
REGION THOUGH THE MORNING. MUCH OF THIS BAND WILL PROGRESS EAST OF
THE REGION BY 15Z AS DRYER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. SOME AREAS
BACK TO THE WEST OF THE REGION ARE EVEN SEEING SOME CLEARING WITH LMK
ASOS SEEING SCATTERED SKIES AT 27 KFT THIS HOUR. THIS LOW PRESSURE
AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL PROGRESS NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING.
SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE MOVING INTO THE AFTERNOON SEEN IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS BEFORE WE SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT
FALL BACK INTO THE LOWER 30S.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO NEXT SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS FOR SUNDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE REGION FROM NW TO SE AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIP LOOK TO BE SUNDAY
NIGHT WHICH WILL BE DISCUSSED IN LONG RANGE PORTION OF THE AFD. GIVEN
WARMER AIR IN PLACE ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT
WITH AMTS GENERALLY AROUND A TENTH TO FIFTEEN HUNDREDTHS OF A INCH ON
SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

AN ACTIVE AND MERIDIONAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK
FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS ARE STILL TRACKING
A SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS INTO THE OH
VALLEY AND THE GFS AND EURO BOTH SEEM TO HANDLE THIS FEATURE WELL
AND HAVE EVEN TRENDED DRIER WITH IT. A SLIGHTLY QUICKER EXIT OF THE
WAVE SEEMS POSSIBLE AS WELL. HOWEVER...IN THIS FLOW WITH A DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ANOTHER IMPULSE MAY MOVE
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE EURO AND GFS PICK
UP ON THIS FEATURE AND IT EXITS THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AS A MID LEVEL
RIDGE THEN DEVELOPS AND NOSES INTO THE AREA PROVIDING A PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PATTERN THEN WEAKENS
A BIT AS THE NEXT WAVE TAKES AIM AT THE OH VALLEY BY THURSDAY. AT
THIS TIME...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS AGAIN BY THE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY PERIOD.

THE MODEL ALL BLEND ALONG WITH THE TRENDS KEEP THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WARMER AIR
OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY SHOULD KEEP PRECIP IN ALL LIQUID FORM THROUGH
THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND MOST OF SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER GIVEN THE AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY WITH THIS FRONT...SHOULD SEE A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW A
BIT EARLIER AND SOME ACCUMULATION BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE MODEL ALL BLEND
FOLLOWS ALONG WITH THE EURO AND GFS HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
NORTHWEST WINDS SET UP...ALLOWING FOR FAVORABLE UPSLOPE THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. SOME ISSUES WITH CONSISTENCY ARISE BY LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AS A SECONDARY WAVE DIVES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BUT
THE GFS AND THE EURO ARE QUITE DIFFERENT ON HOW MUCH AND WHERE THAT
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH. A SECOND SHOT OF MOISTURE WITH
THIS WAVE IF IT MATERIALIZES WILL MEAN SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS
AND A PROLONGED EVENT POSSIBLE. ALONG WITH COLLABORATION...WILL KEEP
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE IT
SEEMS THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FIRST FRONT WILL BE
SLOW...SOME ACCUMULATION SEEMS LIKELY BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
INTO MONDAY MORNING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND IN THE NORTHWEST
BUT WILL BE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE APPROACH OF
THE COLD AIR AND DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE AS THIS WAVE TAKES SHAPE.

THE SECOND WAVE MOVES THROUGH BY TUESDAY EVENING WITH SOME HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN THE AREA. A SECOND WEAK FRONT LOOKS POISED TO
IMPACT THE AREA BY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN IN THIS
PATTERN...MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE IN QUESTION. TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE
RIGHT AROUND OR JUST BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

MOST SITES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SEE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS MUCH
OF OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS HAS BEEN DUE TO RAIN AND SNOW MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION AND THESE BANDS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT
ACROSS THE REGION. THESE BANDS OF PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF AS WE MOVE
INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH SITES EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE GENERALLY
BETWEEN 12 AND 16Z FROM NW TO SE. MOST SITES ARE EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION TO VFR/MVFR AS WE MOVE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
KYZ044-050>052-058>060.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ088-
118.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...DJ







000
FXUS63 KJKL 240603
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
103 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 102 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS AS WE CONTINUE TO SEE TEMPS
SLOWLY DROPPING OFF ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
RIGHT AROUND FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGHT WITH WARMER
AIR HANGING IN ACROSS THE FAR SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA. JACKSON HAS
SEEN A TRANSITION TO SNOW...HOWEVER TRANSITION HAS BEEN SLOWER
ACROSS THE FAR SE AND FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION WHERE SOME
SPOTS ARE LIKELY STILL SEEING RAIN. THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP IS
CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KY THIS HOUR AND
WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1114 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO BETTER REFLECT
THE CURRENT TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. OVERALL...READINGS HAVE BEEN SLOW
TO FALL...WITH MAINLY VALLEYS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM SANDY HOOK TO
WHITLEY CITY STILL REPORTING IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. EXPECT A GRADUAL
TRANSITION TO SNOW AS THE TROUGH AXIS COMES THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND THE
COLUMN COOLS OFF A BIT FASTER. THE BEST SNOWFALL HAS BEEN OCCURRING
IN FLEMING COUNTY...WHERE OVER AN INCH HAS LIKELY FALLEN BASED ON
EXTRAPOLATION FROM SURROUNDING COUNTY REPORTS. HAVE UPPED SNOWFALL
TOTALS TO AROUND 2 INCHES THERE...WITH AROUND AN INCH OR LESS FOR
MOST OTHER PLACES BESIDES THE HIGHEST TERRAIN BORDERING
VIRGINIA. WILL LET THE CURRENT HEADLINES RUN AS IS...WITH THE BACK
EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION LIKELY TAPERING OFF BY AROUND 10Z OUT WEST
AND THEN CLOSER TO 16Z FOR THE FAR EAST. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 720 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

A BAND OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION HAS LEFT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY. PORTIONS OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR HAVE BEEN ON THE
FRINGE OF THIS BAND AND THE COLDER AIR...WITH KFGX HAVING REPORTED
LIGHT SNOW FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AT 32 DEGREES...WHILE KSYM HAS
32 DEGREES AND RAIN. BASED ON THE IMPACTS JUST UPSTREAM...WENT AHEAD
AND ISSUED AN ADVISORY FROM ESTILL COUNTY TO ROWAN COUNTY AND WEST.
THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS INITIAL BAND WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH...WITH ADDITIONAL
PRECIP PIVOTING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS DRAWS CLOSER TO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS TRACKING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WITH A LARGE ARE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES AND EXTENDING NORTH AND WEST INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND OH
VALLEY. ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE AREA SOME SNOW OR SLEET
IS MIXING WITH RAIN...BUT MOST OF THE AREA IS EXPERIENCING A CHILLY
RAIN ATTM. LOCATIONS JUST TO THE WEST ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS ARE ALSO
EXPERIENCING SOME SNOW OR RAIN AND SNOW MIXED ATTM. AT THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS WORKING THROUGH THE MS VALLEY
TO THE GULF COAST WITH ANOTHER TROUGH WORKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
STREAM AND IS OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

THE TWO SHORTWAVES SHOULD BEGIN TO INTERACT AND PHASE TONIGHT...WITH
THE TROUGH STARTING TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED BY THE TIME IT MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE TOO LATE FOR ANY HEAVY
PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN KY. ALSO WITH THIS...SOME LEFT EXIT REGION JET
DYNAMICS COULD PLAY A ROLE LATE THIS EVENING AND AT LEAST PROLONG OR
POSSIBLY ENHANCE THE WRAPAROUND BAND OF PRECIP AS IT MOVES FROM
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KY. ANY STRONGER OMEGA WOULD LEAD TO SOME BANDING
AND POSSIBLE COOLING OF THE COLUMN AS THE WRAPAROUND BAND WORKS
TOWARD EASTERN KY. ALSO...AS THE SYSTEM TURNS NORTHEAST UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND DEPENDS...IT WILL ADVECT SOME SLIGHTLY COLDER
AIR INTO THE REGION...ENOUGH TO CHANGE THE PRECIP OVER TO ALL SNOW
LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RECENT MODEL RUNS
GENERALLY FAVOR TWO AREAS OF HIGHER QPF OVERNIGHT AND ALSO SNOWFALL.
THE ONE IS NEAR AND JUST NORTHWEST OF THE DANIEL BOONE NATIONAL
FOREST ESCARPMENT AND THE ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET WHERE PRECIP
SHOULD BE SNOW THE LONGEST. BELOW 2000 FEET...AN INCH OR LESS IS
ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE MARGINAL PROFILES...WITH SOME DEEPER VALLEYS
RECEIVING LITTLE MORE THAN A DUSTING. AT 2000 FEET AND ABOVE...ONE TO
AS MUCH AS THREE INCHES ARE ANTICIPATED. AN SPS WAS ISSUED TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS WINTRY PRECIP EVENT FOR MOST AREAS...WITH A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HARLAN AND LETCHER COUNTIES WHERE ROADWAYS CROSS
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AND AMOUNTS SHOULD BE A BIT HIGHER.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL WORKS ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY ON
SATURDAY...AND THE SFC LOW PULLS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST PRECIP
WILL END FROM NW TO SOUTHEAST. SOME CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW WILL BRING A THREAT
FOR SOME FLURRIES TO THE NORTH AND EAST ON SATURDAY EVENING. CLOUDS
SHOULD BE RATHER PERSISTENT AS QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
WILL BE APPROACHING THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION IN THE EARLY PART OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

AN ACTIVE AND MERIDIONAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK
FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS ARE STILL TRACKING
A SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS INTO THE OH
VALLEY AND THE GFS AND EURO BOTH SEEM TO HANDLE THIS FEATURE WELL
AND HAVE EVEN TRENDED DRIER WITH IT. A SLIGHTLY QUICKER EXIT OF THE
WAVE SEEMS POSSIBLE AS WELL. HOWEVER...IN THIS FLOW WITH A DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ANOTHER IMPULSE MAY MOVE
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE EURO AND GFS PICK
UP ON THIS FEATURE AND IT EXITS THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AS A MID LEVEL
RIDGE THEN DEVELOPS AND NOSES INTO THE AREA PROVIDING A PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PATTERN THEN WEAKENS
A BIT AS THE NEXT WAVE TAKES AIM AT THE OH VALLEY BY THURSDAY. AT
THIS TIME...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS AGAIN BY THE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY PERIOD.

THE MODEL ALL BLEND ALONG WITH THE TRENDS KEEP THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WARMER AIR
OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY SHOULD KEEP PRECIP IN ALL LIQUID FORM THROUGH
THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND MOST OF SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER GIVEN THE AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY WITH THIS FRONT...SHOULD SEE A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW A
BIT EARLIER AND SOME ACCUMULATION BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE MODEL ALL BLEND
FOLLOWS ALONG WITH THE EURO AND GFS HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
NORTHWEST WINDS SET UP...ALLOWING FOR FAVORABLE UPSLOPE THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. SOME ISSUES WITH CONSISTENCY ARISE BY LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AS A SECONDARY WAVE DIVES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BUT
THE GFS AND THE EURO ARE QUITE DIFFERENT ON HOW MUCH AND WHERE THAT
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH. A SECOND SHOT OF MOISTURE WITH
THIS WAVE IF IT MATERIALIZES WILL MEAN SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS
AND A PROLONGED EVENT POSSIBLE. ALONG WITH COLLABORATION...WILL KEEP
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE IT
SEEMS THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FIRST FRONT WILL BE
SLOW...SOME ACCUMULATION SEEMS LIKELY BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
INTO MONDAY MORNING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND IN THE NORTHWEST
BUT WILL BE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE APPROACH OF
THE COLD AIR AND DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE AS THIS WAVE TAKES SHAPE.

THE SECOND WAVE MOVES THROUGH BY TUESDAY EVENING WITH SOME HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN THE AREA. A SECOND WEAK FRONT LOOKS POISED TO
IMPACT THE AREA BY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN IN THIS
PATTERN...MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE IN QUESTION. TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE
RIGHT AROUND OR JUST BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

MOST SITES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SEE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS MUCH
OF OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS HAS BEEN DUE TO RAIN AND SNOW MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION AND THESE BANDS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT
ACROSS THE REGION. THESE BANDS OF PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF AS WE MOVE
INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH SITES EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE GENERALLY
BETWEEN 12 AND 16Z FROM NW TO SE. MOST SITES ARE EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION TO VFR/MVFR AS WE MOVE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
KYZ044-050>052-058>060.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ088-
118.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...DJ







000
FXUS63 KJKL 240603
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
103 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 102 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS AS WE CONTINUE TO SEE TEMPS
SLOWLY DROPPING OFF ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
RIGHT AROUND FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGHT WITH WARMER
AIR HANGING IN ACROSS THE FAR SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA. JACKSON HAS
SEEN A TRANSITION TO SNOW...HOWEVER TRANSITION HAS BEEN SLOWER
ACROSS THE FAR SE AND FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION WHERE SOME
SPOTS ARE LIKELY STILL SEEING RAIN. THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP IS
CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KY THIS HOUR AND
WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1114 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO BETTER REFLECT
THE CURRENT TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. OVERALL...READINGS HAVE BEEN SLOW
TO FALL...WITH MAINLY VALLEYS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM SANDY HOOK TO
WHITLEY CITY STILL REPORTING IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. EXPECT A GRADUAL
TRANSITION TO SNOW AS THE TROUGH AXIS COMES THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND THE
COLUMN COOLS OFF A BIT FASTER. THE BEST SNOWFALL HAS BEEN OCCURRING
IN FLEMING COUNTY...WHERE OVER AN INCH HAS LIKELY FALLEN BASED ON
EXTRAPOLATION FROM SURROUNDING COUNTY REPORTS. HAVE UPPED SNOWFALL
TOTALS TO AROUND 2 INCHES THERE...WITH AROUND AN INCH OR LESS FOR
MOST OTHER PLACES BESIDES THE HIGHEST TERRAIN BORDERING
VIRGINIA. WILL LET THE CURRENT HEADLINES RUN AS IS...WITH THE BACK
EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION LIKELY TAPERING OFF BY AROUND 10Z OUT WEST
AND THEN CLOSER TO 16Z FOR THE FAR EAST. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 720 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

A BAND OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION HAS LEFT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY. PORTIONS OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR HAVE BEEN ON THE
FRINGE OF THIS BAND AND THE COLDER AIR...WITH KFGX HAVING REPORTED
LIGHT SNOW FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AT 32 DEGREES...WHILE KSYM HAS
32 DEGREES AND RAIN. BASED ON THE IMPACTS JUST UPSTREAM...WENT AHEAD
AND ISSUED AN ADVISORY FROM ESTILL COUNTY TO ROWAN COUNTY AND WEST.
THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS INITIAL BAND WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH...WITH ADDITIONAL
PRECIP PIVOTING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS DRAWS CLOSER TO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS TRACKING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WITH A LARGE ARE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES AND EXTENDING NORTH AND WEST INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND OH
VALLEY. ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE AREA SOME SNOW OR SLEET
IS MIXING WITH RAIN...BUT MOST OF THE AREA IS EXPERIENCING A CHILLY
RAIN ATTM. LOCATIONS JUST TO THE WEST ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS ARE ALSO
EXPERIENCING SOME SNOW OR RAIN AND SNOW MIXED ATTM. AT THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS WORKING THROUGH THE MS VALLEY
TO THE GULF COAST WITH ANOTHER TROUGH WORKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
STREAM AND IS OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

THE TWO SHORTWAVES SHOULD BEGIN TO INTERACT AND PHASE TONIGHT...WITH
THE TROUGH STARTING TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED BY THE TIME IT MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE TOO LATE FOR ANY HEAVY
PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN KY. ALSO WITH THIS...SOME LEFT EXIT REGION JET
DYNAMICS COULD PLAY A ROLE LATE THIS EVENING AND AT LEAST PROLONG OR
POSSIBLY ENHANCE THE WRAPAROUND BAND OF PRECIP AS IT MOVES FROM
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KY. ANY STRONGER OMEGA WOULD LEAD TO SOME BANDING
AND POSSIBLE COOLING OF THE COLUMN AS THE WRAPAROUND BAND WORKS
TOWARD EASTERN KY. ALSO...AS THE SYSTEM TURNS NORTHEAST UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND DEPENDS...IT WILL ADVECT SOME SLIGHTLY COLDER
AIR INTO THE REGION...ENOUGH TO CHANGE THE PRECIP OVER TO ALL SNOW
LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RECENT MODEL RUNS
GENERALLY FAVOR TWO AREAS OF HIGHER QPF OVERNIGHT AND ALSO SNOWFALL.
THE ONE IS NEAR AND JUST NORTHWEST OF THE DANIEL BOONE NATIONAL
FOREST ESCARPMENT AND THE ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET WHERE PRECIP
SHOULD BE SNOW THE LONGEST. BELOW 2000 FEET...AN INCH OR LESS IS
ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE MARGINAL PROFILES...WITH SOME DEEPER VALLEYS
RECEIVING LITTLE MORE THAN A DUSTING. AT 2000 FEET AND ABOVE...ONE TO
AS MUCH AS THREE INCHES ARE ANTICIPATED. AN SPS WAS ISSUED TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS WINTRY PRECIP EVENT FOR MOST AREAS...WITH A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HARLAN AND LETCHER COUNTIES WHERE ROADWAYS CROSS
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AND AMOUNTS SHOULD BE A BIT HIGHER.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL WORKS ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY ON
SATURDAY...AND THE SFC LOW PULLS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST PRECIP
WILL END FROM NW TO SOUTHEAST. SOME CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW WILL BRING A THREAT
FOR SOME FLURRIES TO THE NORTH AND EAST ON SATURDAY EVENING. CLOUDS
SHOULD BE RATHER PERSISTENT AS QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
WILL BE APPROACHING THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION IN THE EARLY PART OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

AN ACTIVE AND MERIDIONAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK
FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS ARE STILL TRACKING
A SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS INTO THE OH
VALLEY AND THE GFS AND EURO BOTH SEEM TO HANDLE THIS FEATURE WELL
AND HAVE EVEN TRENDED DRIER WITH IT. A SLIGHTLY QUICKER EXIT OF THE
WAVE SEEMS POSSIBLE AS WELL. HOWEVER...IN THIS FLOW WITH A DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ANOTHER IMPULSE MAY MOVE
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE EURO AND GFS PICK
UP ON THIS FEATURE AND IT EXITS THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AS A MID LEVEL
RIDGE THEN DEVELOPS AND NOSES INTO THE AREA PROVIDING A PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PATTERN THEN WEAKENS
A BIT AS THE NEXT WAVE TAKES AIM AT THE OH VALLEY BY THURSDAY. AT
THIS TIME...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS AGAIN BY THE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY PERIOD.

THE MODEL ALL BLEND ALONG WITH THE TRENDS KEEP THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WARMER AIR
OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY SHOULD KEEP PRECIP IN ALL LIQUID FORM THROUGH
THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND MOST OF SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER GIVEN THE AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY WITH THIS FRONT...SHOULD SEE A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW A
BIT EARLIER AND SOME ACCUMULATION BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE MODEL ALL BLEND
FOLLOWS ALONG WITH THE EURO AND GFS HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
NORTHWEST WINDS SET UP...ALLOWING FOR FAVORABLE UPSLOPE THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. SOME ISSUES WITH CONSISTENCY ARISE BY LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AS A SECONDARY WAVE DIVES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BUT
THE GFS AND THE EURO ARE QUITE DIFFERENT ON HOW MUCH AND WHERE THAT
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH. A SECOND SHOT OF MOISTURE WITH
THIS WAVE IF IT MATERIALIZES WILL MEAN SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS
AND A PROLONGED EVENT POSSIBLE. ALONG WITH COLLABORATION...WILL KEEP
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE IT
SEEMS THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FIRST FRONT WILL BE
SLOW...SOME ACCUMULATION SEEMS LIKELY BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
INTO MONDAY MORNING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND IN THE NORTHWEST
BUT WILL BE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE APPROACH OF
THE COLD AIR AND DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE AS THIS WAVE TAKES SHAPE.

THE SECOND WAVE MOVES THROUGH BY TUESDAY EVENING WITH SOME HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN THE AREA. A SECOND WEAK FRONT LOOKS POISED TO
IMPACT THE AREA BY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN IN THIS
PATTERN...MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE IN QUESTION. TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE
RIGHT AROUND OR JUST BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

MOST SITES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SEE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS MUCH
OF OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS HAS BEEN DUE TO RAIN AND SNOW MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION AND THESE BANDS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT
ACROSS THE REGION. THESE BANDS OF PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF AS WE MOVE
INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH SITES EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE GENERALLY
BETWEEN 12 AND 16Z FROM NW TO SE. MOST SITES ARE EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION TO VFR/MVFR AS WE MOVE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
KYZ044-050>052-058>060.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ088-
118.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...DJ








000
FXUS63 KJKL 240535
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1235 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1114 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO BETTER REFLECT
THE CURRENT TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. OVERALL...READINGS HAVE BEEN SLOW
TO FALL...WITH MAINLY VALLEYS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM SANDY HOOK TO
WHITLEY CITY STILL REPORTING IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. EXPECT A GRADUAL
TRANSITION TO SNOW AS THE TROUGH AXIS COMES THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND THE
COLUMN COOLS OFF A BIT FASTER. THE BEST SNOWFALL HAS BEEN OCCURRING
IN FLEMING COUNTY...WHERE OVER AN INCH HAS LIKELY FALLEN BASED ON
EXTRAPOLATION FROM SURROUNDING COUNTY REPORTS. HAVE UPPED SNOWFALL
TOTALS TO AROUND 2 INCHES THERE...WITH AROUND AN INCH OR LESS FOR
MOST OTHER PLACES BESIDES THE HIGHEST TERRAIN BORDERING
VIRGINIA. WILL LET THE CURRENT HEADLINES RUN AS IS...WITH THE BACK
EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION LIKELY TAPERING OFF BY AROUND 10Z OUT WEST
AND THEN CLOSER TO 16Z FOR THE FAR EAST. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 720 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

A BAND OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION HAS LEFT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY. PORTIONS OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR HAVE BEEN ON THE
FRINGE OF THIS BAND AND THE COLDER AIR...WITH KFGX HAVING REPORTED
LIGHT SNOW FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AT 32 DEGREES...WHILE KSYM HAS
32 DEGREES AND RAIN. BASED ON THE IMPACTS JUST UPSTREAM...WENT AHEAD
AND ISSUED AN ADVISORY FROM ESTILL COUNTY TO ROWAN COUNTY AND WEST.
THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS INITIAL BAND WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH...WITH ADDITIONAL
PRECIP PIVOTING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS DRAWS CLOSER TO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS TRACKING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WITH A LARGE ARE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES AND EXTENDING NORTH AND WEST INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND OH
VALLEY. ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE AREA SOME SNOW OR SLEET
IS MIXING WITH RAIN...BUT MOST OF THE AREA IS EXPERIENCING A CHILLY
RAIN ATTM. LOCATIONS JUST TO THE WEST ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS ARE ALSO
EXPERIENCING SOME SNOW OR RAIN AND SNOW MIXED ATTM. AT THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS WORKING THROUGH THE MS VALLEY
TO THE GULF COAST WITH ANOTHER TROUGH WORKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
STREAM AND IS OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

THE TWO SHORTWAVES SHOULD BEGIN TO INTERACT AND PHASE TONIGHT...WITH
THE TROUGH STARTING TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED BY THE TIME IT MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE TOO LATE FOR ANY HEAVY
PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN KY. ALSO WITH THIS...SOME LEFT EXIT REGION JET
DYNAMICS COULD PLAY A ROLE LATE THIS EVENING AND AT LEAST PROLONG OR
POSSIBLY ENHANCE THE WRAPAROUND BAND OF PRECIP AS IT MOVES FROM
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KY. ANY STRONGER OMEGA WOULD LEAD TO SOME BANDING
AND POSSIBLE COOLING OF THE COLUMN AS THE WRAPAROUND BAND WORKS
TOWARD EASTERN KY. ALSO...AS THE SYSTEM TURNS NORTHEAST UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND DEPENDS...IT WILL ADVECT SOME SLIGHTLY COLDER
AIR INTO THE REGION...ENOUGH TO CHANGE THE PRECIP OVER TO ALL SNOW
LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RECENT MODEL RUNS
GENERALLY FAVOR TWO AREAS OF HIGHER QPF OVERNIGHT AND ALSO SNOWFALL.
THE ONE IS NEAR AND JUST NORTHWEST OF THE DANIEL BOONE NATIONAL
FOREST ESCARPMENT AND THE ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET WHERE PRECIP
SHOULD BE SNOW THE LONGEST. BELOW 2000 FEET...AN INCH OR LESS IS
ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE MARGINAL PROFILES...WITH SOME DEEPER VALLEYS
RECEIVING LITTLE MORE THAN A DUSTING. AT 2000 FEET AND ABOVE...ONE TO
AS MUCH AS THREE INCHES ARE ANTICIPATED. AN SPS WAS ISSUED TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS WINTRY PRECIP EVENT FOR MOST AREAS...WITH A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HARLAN AND LETCHER COUNTIES WHERE ROADWAYS CROSS
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AND AMOUNTS SHOULD BE A BIT HIGHER.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL WORKS ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY ON
SATURDAY...AND THE SFC LOW PULLS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST PRECIP
WILL END FROM NW TO SOUTHEAST. SOME CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW WILL BRING A THREAT
FOR SOME FLURRIES TO THE NORTH AND EAST ON SATURDAY EVENING. CLOUDS
SHOULD BE RATHER PERSISTENT AS QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
WILL BE APPROACHING THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION IN THE EARLY PART OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

AN ACTIVE AND MERIDIONAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK
FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS ARE STILL TRACKING
A SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS INTO THE OH
VALLEY AND THE GFS AND EURO BOTH SEEM TO HANDLE THIS FEATURE WELL
AND HAVE EVEN TRENDED DRIER WITH IT. A SLIGHTLY QUICKER EXIT OF THE
WAVE SEEMS POSSIBLE AS WELL. HOWEVER...IN THIS FLOW WITH A DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ANOTHER IMPULSE MAY MOVE
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE EURO AND GFS PICK
UP ON THIS FEATURE AND IT EXITS THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AS A MID LEVEL
RIDGE THEN DEVELOPS AND NOSES INTO THE AREA PROVIDING A PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PATTERN THEN WEAKENS
A BIT AS THE NEXT WAVE TAKES AIM AT THE OH VALLEY BY THURSDAY. AT
THIS TIME...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS AGAIN BY THE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY PERIOD.

THE MODEL ALL BLEND ALONG WITH THE TRENDS KEEP THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WARMER AIR
OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY SHOULD KEEP PRECIP IN ALL LIQUID FORM THROUGH
THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND MOST OF SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER GIVEN THE AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY WITH THIS FRONT...SHOULD SEE A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW A
BIT EARLIER AND SOME ACCUMULATION BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE MODEL ALL BLEND
FOLLOWS ALONG WITH THE EURO AND GFS HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
NORTHWEST WINDS SET UP...ALLOWING FOR FAVORABLE UPSLOPE THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. SOME ISSUES WITH CONSISTENCY ARISE BY LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AS A SECONDARY WAVE DIVES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BUT
THE GFS AND THE EURO ARE QUITE DIFFERENT ON HOW MUCH AND WHERE THAT
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH. A SECOND SHOT OF MOISTURE WITH
THIS WAVE IF IT MATERIALIZES WILL MEAN SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS
AND A PROLONGED EVENT POSSIBLE. ALONG WITH COLLABORATION...WILL KEEP
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE IT
SEEMS THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FIRST FRONT WILL BE
SLOW...SOME ACCUMULATION SEEMS LIKELY BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
INTO MONDAY MORNING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND IN THE NORTHWEST
BUT WILL BE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE APPROACH OF
THE COLD AIR AND DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE AS THIS WAVE TAKES SHAPE.

THE SECOND WAVE MOVES THROUGH BY TUESDAY EVENING WITH SOME HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN THE AREA. A SECOND WEAK FRONT LOOKS POISED TO
IMPACT THE AREA BY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN IN THIS
PATTERN...MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE IN QUESTION. TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE
RIGHT AROUND OR JUST BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

MOST SITES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SEE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS MUCH
OF OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS HAS BEEN DUE TO RAIN AND SNOW MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION AND THESE BANDS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT
ACROSS THE REGION. THESE BANDS OF PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF AS WE MOVE
INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH SITES EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE GENERALLY
BETWEEN 12 AND 16Z FROM NW TO SE. MOST SITES ARE EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION TO VFR/MVFR AS WE MOVE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
KYZ044-050>052-058>060.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ088-
118.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...DJ







000
FXUS63 KJKL 240535
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1235 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1114 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO BETTER REFLECT
THE CURRENT TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. OVERALL...READINGS HAVE BEEN SLOW
TO FALL...WITH MAINLY VALLEYS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM SANDY HOOK TO
WHITLEY CITY STILL REPORTING IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. EXPECT A GRADUAL
TRANSITION TO SNOW AS THE TROUGH AXIS COMES THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND THE
COLUMN COOLS OFF A BIT FASTER. THE BEST SNOWFALL HAS BEEN OCCURRING
IN FLEMING COUNTY...WHERE OVER AN INCH HAS LIKELY FALLEN BASED ON
EXTRAPOLATION FROM SURROUNDING COUNTY REPORTS. HAVE UPPED SNOWFALL
TOTALS TO AROUND 2 INCHES THERE...WITH AROUND AN INCH OR LESS FOR
MOST OTHER PLACES BESIDES THE HIGHEST TERRAIN BORDERING
VIRGINIA. WILL LET THE CURRENT HEADLINES RUN AS IS...WITH THE BACK
EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION LIKELY TAPERING OFF BY AROUND 10Z OUT WEST
AND THEN CLOSER TO 16Z FOR THE FAR EAST. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 720 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

A BAND OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION HAS LEFT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY. PORTIONS OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR HAVE BEEN ON THE
FRINGE OF THIS BAND AND THE COLDER AIR...WITH KFGX HAVING REPORTED
LIGHT SNOW FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AT 32 DEGREES...WHILE KSYM HAS
32 DEGREES AND RAIN. BASED ON THE IMPACTS JUST UPSTREAM...WENT AHEAD
AND ISSUED AN ADVISORY FROM ESTILL COUNTY TO ROWAN COUNTY AND WEST.
THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS INITIAL BAND WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH...WITH ADDITIONAL
PRECIP PIVOTING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS DRAWS CLOSER TO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS TRACKING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WITH A LARGE ARE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES AND EXTENDING NORTH AND WEST INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND OH
VALLEY. ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE AREA SOME SNOW OR SLEET
IS MIXING WITH RAIN...BUT MOST OF THE AREA IS EXPERIENCING A CHILLY
RAIN ATTM. LOCATIONS JUST TO THE WEST ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS ARE ALSO
EXPERIENCING SOME SNOW OR RAIN AND SNOW MIXED ATTM. AT THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS WORKING THROUGH THE MS VALLEY
TO THE GULF COAST WITH ANOTHER TROUGH WORKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
STREAM AND IS OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

THE TWO SHORTWAVES SHOULD BEGIN TO INTERACT AND PHASE TONIGHT...WITH
THE TROUGH STARTING TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED BY THE TIME IT MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE TOO LATE FOR ANY HEAVY
PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN KY. ALSO WITH THIS...SOME LEFT EXIT REGION JET
DYNAMICS COULD PLAY A ROLE LATE THIS EVENING AND AT LEAST PROLONG OR
POSSIBLY ENHANCE THE WRAPAROUND BAND OF PRECIP AS IT MOVES FROM
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KY. ANY STRONGER OMEGA WOULD LEAD TO SOME BANDING
AND POSSIBLE COOLING OF THE COLUMN AS THE WRAPAROUND BAND WORKS
TOWARD EASTERN KY. ALSO...AS THE SYSTEM TURNS NORTHEAST UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND DEPENDS...IT WILL ADVECT SOME SLIGHTLY COLDER
AIR INTO THE REGION...ENOUGH TO CHANGE THE PRECIP OVER TO ALL SNOW
LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RECENT MODEL RUNS
GENERALLY FAVOR TWO AREAS OF HIGHER QPF OVERNIGHT AND ALSO SNOWFALL.
THE ONE IS NEAR AND JUST NORTHWEST OF THE DANIEL BOONE NATIONAL
FOREST ESCARPMENT AND THE ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET WHERE PRECIP
SHOULD BE SNOW THE LONGEST. BELOW 2000 FEET...AN INCH OR LESS IS
ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE MARGINAL PROFILES...WITH SOME DEEPER VALLEYS
RECEIVING LITTLE MORE THAN A DUSTING. AT 2000 FEET AND ABOVE...ONE TO
AS MUCH AS THREE INCHES ARE ANTICIPATED. AN SPS WAS ISSUED TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS WINTRY PRECIP EVENT FOR MOST AREAS...WITH A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HARLAN AND LETCHER COUNTIES WHERE ROADWAYS CROSS
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AND AMOUNTS SHOULD BE A BIT HIGHER.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL WORKS ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY ON
SATURDAY...AND THE SFC LOW PULLS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST PRECIP
WILL END FROM NW TO SOUTHEAST. SOME CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW WILL BRING A THREAT
FOR SOME FLURRIES TO THE NORTH AND EAST ON SATURDAY EVENING. CLOUDS
SHOULD BE RATHER PERSISTENT AS QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
WILL BE APPROACHING THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION IN THE EARLY PART OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

AN ACTIVE AND MERIDIONAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK
FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS ARE STILL TRACKING
A SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS INTO THE OH
VALLEY AND THE GFS AND EURO BOTH SEEM TO HANDLE THIS FEATURE WELL
AND HAVE EVEN TRENDED DRIER WITH IT. A SLIGHTLY QUICKER EXIT OF THE
WAVE SEEMS POSSIBLE AS WELL. HOWEVER...IN THIS FLOW WITH A DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ANOTHER IMPULSE MAY MOVE
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE EURO AND GFS PICK
UP ON THIS FEATURE AND IT EXITS THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AS A MID LEVEL
RIDGE THEN DEVELOPS AND NOSES INTO THE AREA PROVIDING A PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PATTERN THEN WEAKENS
A BIT AS THE NEXT WAVE TAKES AIM AT THE OH VALLEY BY THURSDAY. AT
THIS TIME...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS AGAIN BY THE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY PERIOD.

THE MODEL ALL BLEND ALONG WITH THE TRENDS KEEP THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WARMER AIR
OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY SHOULD KEEP PRECIP IN ALL LIQUID FORM THROUGH
THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND MOST OF SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER GIVEN THE AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY WITH THIS FRONT...SHOULD SEE A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW A
BIT EARLIER AND SOME ACCUMULATION BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE MODEL ALL BLEND
FOLLOWS ALONG WITH THE EURO AND GFS HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
NORTHWEST WINDS SET UP...ALLOWING FOR FAVORABLE UPSLOPE THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. SOME ISSUES WITH CONSISTENCY ARISE BY LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AS A SECONDARY WAVE DIVES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BUT
THE GFS AND THE EURO ARE QUITE DIFFERENT ON HOW MUCH AND WHERE THAT
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH. A SECOND SHOT OF MOISTURE WITH
THIS WAVE IF IT MATERIALIZES WILL MEAN SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS
AND A PROLONGED EVENT POSSIBLE. ALONG WITH COLLABORATION...WILL KEEP
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE IT
SEEMS THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FIRST FRONT WILL BE
SLOW...SOME ACCUMULATION SEEMS LIKELY BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
INTO MONDAY MORNING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND IN THE NORTHWEST
BUT WILL BE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE APPROACH OF
THE COLD AIR AND DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE AS THIS WAVE TAKES SHAPE.

THE SECOND WAVE MOVES THROUGH BY TUESDAY EVENING WITH SOME HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN THE AREA. A SECOND WEAK FRONT LOOKS POISED TO
IMPACT THE AREA BY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN IN THIS
PATTERN...MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE IN QUESTION. TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE
RIGHT AROUND OR JUST BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

MOST SITES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SEE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS MUCH
OF OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS HAS BEEN DUE TO RAIN AND SNOW MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION AND THESE BANDS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT
ACROSS THE REGION. THESE BANDS OF PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF AS WE MOVE
INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH SITES EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE GENERALLY
BETWEEN 12 AND 16Z FROM NW TO SE. MOST SITES ARE EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION TO VFR/MVFR AS WE MOVE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
KYZ044-050>052-058>060.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ088-
118.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...DJ








000
FXUS63 KJKL 240414 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1114 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1114 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO BETTER REFLECT
THE CURRENT TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. OVERALL...READINGS HAVE BEEN SLOW
TO FALL...WITH MAINLY VALLEYS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM SANDY HOOK TO
WHITLEY CITY STILL REPORTING IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. EXPECT A GRADUAL
TRANSITION TO SNOW AS THE TROUGH AXIS COMES THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND THE
COLUMN COOLS OFF A BIT FASTER. THE BEST SNOWFALL HAS BEEN OCCURRING
IN FLEMING COUNTY...WHERE OVER AN INCH HAS LIKELY FALLEN BASED ON
EXTRAPOLATION FROM SURROUNDING COUNTY REPORTS. HAVE UPPED SNOWFALL
TOTALS TO AROUND 2 INCHES THERE...WITH AROUND AN INCH OR LESS FOR
MOST OTHER PLACES BESIDES THE HIGHEST TERRAIN BORDERING
VIRGINIA. WILL LET THE CURRENT HEADLINES RUN AS IS...WITH THE BACK
EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION LIKELY TAPERING OFF BY AROUND 10Z OUT WEST
AND THEN CLOSER TO 16Z FOR THE FAR EAST. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 720 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

A BAND OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION HAS LEFT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY. PORTIONS OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR HAVE BEEN ON THE
FRINGE OF THIS BAND AND THE COLDER AIR...WITH KFGX HAVING REPORTED
LIGHT SNOW FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AT 32 DEGREES...WHILE KSYM HAS
32 DEGREES AND RAIN. BASED ON THE IMPACTS JUST UPSTREAM...WENT AHEAD
AND ISSUED AN ADVISORY FROM ESTILL COUNTY TO ROWAN COUNTY AND WEST.
THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS INITIAL BAND WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH...WITH ADDITIONAL
PRECIP PIVOTING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS DRAWS CLOSER TO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS TRACKING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WITH A LARGE ARE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES AND EXTENDING NORTH AND WEST INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND OH
VALLEY. ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE AREA SOME SNOW OR SLEET
IS MIXING WITH RAIN...BUT MOST OF THE AREA IS EXPERIENCING A CHILLY
RAIN ATTM. LOCATIONS JUST TO THE WEST ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS ARE ALSO
EXPERIENCING SOME SNOW OR RAIN AND SNOW MIXED ATTM. AT THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS WORKING THROUGH THE MS VALLEY
TO THE GULF COAST WITH ANOTHER TROUGH WORKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
STREAM AND IS OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

THE TWO SHORTWAVES SHOULD BEGIN TO INTERACT AND PHASE TONIGHT...WITH
THE TROUGH STARTING TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED BY THE TIME IT MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE TOO LATE FOR ANY HEAVY
PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN KY. ALSO WITH THIS...SOME LEFT EXIT REGION JET
DYNAMICS COULD PLAY A ROLE LATE THIS EVENING AND AT LEAST PROLONG OR
POSSIBLY ENHANCE THE WRAPAROUND BAND OF PRECIP AS IT MOVES FROM
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KY. ANY STRONGER OMEGA WOULD LEAD TO SOME BANDING
AND POSSIBLE COOLING OF THE COLUMN AS THE WRAPAROUND BAND WORKS
TOWARD EASTERN KY. ALSO...AS THE SYSTEM TURNS NORTHEAST UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND DEPENDS...IT WILL ADVECT SOME SLIGHTLY COLDER
AIR INTO THE REGION...ENOUGH TO CHANGE THE PRECIP OVER TO ALL SNOW
LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RECENT MODEL RUNS
GENERALLY FAVOR TWO AREAS OF HIGHER QPF OVERNIGHT AND ALSO SNOWFALL.
THE ONE IS NEAR AND JUST NORTHWEST OF THE DANIEL BOONE NATIONAL
FOREST ESCARPMENT AND THE ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET WHERE PRECIP
SHOULD BE SNOW THE LONGEST. BELOW 2000 FEET...AN INCH OR LESS IS
ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE MARGINAL PROFILES...WITH SOME DEEPER VALLEYS
RECEIVING LITTLE MORE THAN A DUSTING. AT 2000 FEET AND ABOVE...ONE TO
AS MUCH AS THREE INCHES ARE ANTICIPATED. AN SPS WAS ISSUED TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS WINTRY PRECIP EVENT FOR MOST AREAS...WITH A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HARLAN AND LETCHER COUNTIES WHERE ROADWAYS CROSS
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AND AMOUNTS SHOULD BE A BIT HIGHER.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL WORKS ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY ON
SATURDAY...AND THE SFC LOW PULLS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST PRECIP
WILL END FROM NW TO SOUTHEAST. SOME CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW WILL BRING A THREAT
FOR SOME FLURRIES TO THE NORTH AND EAST ON SATURDAY EVENING. CLOUDS
SHOULD BE RATHER PERSISTENT AS QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
WILL BE APPROACHING THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION IN THE EARLY PART OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

AN ACTIVE AND MERIDIONAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK
FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS ARE STILL TRACKING
A SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS INTO THE OH
VALLEY AND THE GFS AND EURO BOTH SEEM TO HANDLE THIS FEATURE WELL
AND HAVE EVEN TRENDED DRIER WITH IT. A SLIGHTLY QUICKER EXIT OF THE
WAVE SEEMS POSSIBLE AS WELL. HOWEVER...IN THIS FLOW WITH A DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ANOTHER IMPULSE MAY MOVE
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE EURO AND GFS PICK
UP ON THIS FEATURE AND IT EXITS THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AS A MID LEVEL
RIDGE THEN DEVELOPS AND NOSES INTO THE AREA PROVIDING A PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PATTERN THEN WEAKENS
A BIT AS THE NEXT WAVE TAKES AIM AT THE OH VALLEY BY THURSDAY. AT
THIS TIME...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS AGAIN BY THE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY PERIOD.

THE MODEL ALL BLEND ALONG WITH THE TRENDS KEEP THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WARMER AIR
OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY SHOULD KEEP PRECIP IN ALL LIQUID FORM THROUGH
THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND MOST OF SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER GIVEN THE AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY WITH THIS FRONT...SHOULD SEE A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW A
BIT EARLIER AND SOME ACCUMULATION BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE MODEL ALL BLEND
FOLLOWS ALONG WITH THE EURO AND GFS HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
NORTHWEST WINDS SET UP...ALLOWING FOR FAVORABLE UPSLOPE THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. SOME ISSUES WITH CONSISTENCY ARISE BY LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AS A SECONDARY WAVE DIVES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BUT
THE GFS AND THE EURO ARE QUITE DIFFERENT ON HOW MUCH AND WHERE THAT
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH. A SECOND SHOT OF MOISTURE WITH
THIS WAVE IF IT MATERIALIZES WILL MEAN SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS
AND A PROLONGED EVENT POSSIBLE. ALONG WITH COLLABORATION...WILL KEEP
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE IT
SEEMS THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FIRST FRONT WILL BE
SLOW...SOME ACCUMULATION SEEMS LIKELY BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
INTO MONDAY MORNING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND IN THE NORTHWEST
BUT WILL BE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE APPROACH OF
THE COLD AIR AND DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE AS THIS WAVE TAKES SHAPE.

THE SECOND WAVE MOVES THROUGH BY TUESDAY EVENING WITH SOME HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN THE AREA. A SECOND WEAK FRONT LOOKS POISED TO
IMPACT THE AREA BY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN IN THIS
PATTERN...MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE IN QUESTION. TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE
RIGHT AROUND OR JUST BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 720 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

IFR/LIFR CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY BE THE RULE THROUGH DAWN ACROSS THE
AREA. RAIN/SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL END BETWEEN 10 AND
16Z ACROSS THE AREA...WITH CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SATURDAY FOR KYZ088-118.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN








000
FXUS63 KJKL 240414 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1114 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1114 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO BETTER REFLECT
THE CURRENT TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. OVERALL...READINGS HAVE BEEN SLOW
TO FALL...WITH MAINLY VALLEYS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM SANDY HOOK TO
WHITLEY CITY STILL REPORTING IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. EXPECT A GRADUAL
TRANSITION TO SNOW AS THE TROUGH AXIS COMES THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND THE
COLUMN COOLS OFF A BIT FASTER. THE BEST SNOWFALL HAS BEEN OCCURRING
IN FLEMING COUNTY...WHERE OVER AN INCH HAS LIKELY FALLEN BASED ON
EXTRAPOLATION FROM SURROUNDING COUNTY REPORTS. HAVE UPPED SNOWFALL
TOTALS TO AROUND 2 INCHES THERE...WITH AROUND AN INCH OR LESS FOR
MOST OTHER PLACES BESIDES THE HIGHEST TERRAIN BORDERING
VIRGINIA. WILL LET THE CURRENT HEADLINES RUN AS IS...WITH THE BACK
EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION LIKELY TAPERING OFF BY AROUND 10Z OUT WEST
AND THEN CLOSER TO 16Z FOR THE FAR EAST. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 720 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

A BAND OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION HAS LEFT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY. PORTIONS OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR HAVE BEEN ON THE
FRINGE OF THIS BAND AND THE COLDER AIR...WITH KFGX HAVING REPORTED
LIGHT SNOW FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AT 32 DEGREES...WHILE KSYM HAS
32 DEGREES AND RAIN. BASED ON THE IMPACTS JUST UPSTREAM...WENT AHEAD
AND ISSUED AN ADVISORY FROM ESTILL COUNTY TO ROWAN COUNTY AND WEST.
THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS INITIAL BAND WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH...WITH ADDITIONAL
PRECIP PIVOTING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS DRAWS CLOSER TO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS TRACKING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WITH A LARGE ARE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES AND EXTENDING NORTH AND WEST INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND OH
VALLEY. ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE AREA SOME SNOW OR SLEET
IS MIXING WITH RAIN...BUT MOST OF THE AREA IS EXPERIENCING A CHILLY
RAIN ATTM. LOCATIONS JUST TO THE WEST ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS ARE ALSO
EXPERIENCING SOME SNOW OR RAIN AND SNOW MIXED ATTM. AT THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS WORKING THROUGH THE MS VALLEY
TO THE GULF COAST WITH ANOTHER TROUGH WORKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
STREAM AND IS OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

THE TWO SHORTWAVES SHOULD BEGIN TO INTERACT AND PHASE TONIGHT...WITH
THE TROUGH STARTING TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED BY THE TIME IT MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE TOO LATE FOR ANY HEAVY
PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN KY. ALSO WITH THIS...SOME LEFT EXIT REGION JET
DYNAMICS COULD PLAY A ROLE LATE THIS EVENING AND AT LEAST PROLONG OR
POSSIBLY ENHANCE THE WRAPAROUND BAND OF PRECIP AS IT MOVES FROM
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KY. ANY STRONGER OMEGA WOULD LEAD TO SOME BANDING
AND POSSIBLE COOLING OF THE COLUMN AS THE WRAPAROUND BAND WORKS
TOWARD EASTERN KY. ALSO...AS THE SYSTEM TURNS NORTHEAST UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND DEPENDS...IT WILL ADVECT SOME SLIGHTLY COLDER
AIR INTO THE REGION...ENOUGH TO CHANGE THE PRECIP OVER TO ALL SNOW
LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RECENT MODEL RUNS
GENERALLY FAVOR TWO AREAS OF HIGHER QPF OVERNIGHT AND ALSO SNOWFALL.
THE ONE IS NEAR AND JUST NORTHWEST OF THE DANIEL BOONE NATIONAL
FOREST ESCARPMENT AND THE ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET WHERE PRECIP
SHOULD BE SNOW THE LONGEST. BELOW 2000 FEET...AN INCH OR LESS IS
ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE MARGINAL PROFILES...WITH SOME DEEPER VALLEYS
RECEIVING LITTLE MORE THAN A DUSTING. AT 2000 FEET AND ABOVE...ONE TO
AS MUCH AS THREE INCHES ARE ANTICIPATED. AN SPS WAS ISSUED TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS WINTRY PRECIP EVENT FOR MOST AREAS...WITH A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HARLAN AND LETCHER COUNTIES WHERE ROADWAYS CROSS
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AND AMOUNTS SHOULD BE A BIT HIGHER.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL WORKS ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY ON
SATURDAY...AND THE SFC LOW PULLS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST PRECIP
WILL END FROM NW TO SOUTHEAST. SOME CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW WILL BRING A THREAT
FOR SOME FLURRIES TO THE NORTH AND EAST ON SATURDAY EVENING. CLOUDS
SHOULD BE RATHER PERSISTENT AS QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
WILL BE APPROACHING THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION IN THE EARLY PART OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

AN ACTIVE AND MERIDIONAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK
FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS ARE STILL TRACKING
A SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS INTO THE OH
VALLEY AND THE GFS AND EURO BOTH SEEM TO HANDLE THIS FEATURE WELL
AND HAVE EVEN TRENDED DRIER WITH IT. A SLIGHTLY QUICKER EXIT OF THE
WAVE SEEMS POSSIBLE AS WELL. HOWEVER...IN THIS FLOW WITH A DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ANOTHER IMPULSE MAY MOVE
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE EURO AND GFS PICK
UP ON THIS FEATURE AND IT EXITS THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AS A MID LEVEL
RIDGE THEN DEVELOPS AND NOSES INTO THE AREA PROVIDING A PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PATTERN THEN WEAKENS
A BIT AS THE NEXT WAVE TAKES AIM AT THE OH VALLEY BY THURSDAY. AT
THIS TIME...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS AGAIN BY THE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY PERIOD.

THE MODEL ALL BLEND ALONG WITH THE TRENDS KEEP THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WARMER AIR
OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY SHOULD KEEP PRECIP IN ALL LIQUID FORM THROUGH
THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND MOST OF SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER GIVEN THE AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY WITH THIS FRONT...SHOULD SEE A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW A
BIT EARLIER AND SOME ACCUMULATION BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE MODEL ALL BLEND
FOLLOWS ALONG WITH THE EURO AND GFS HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
NORTHWEST WINDS SET UP...ALLOWING FOR FAVORABLE UPSLOPE THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. SOME ISSUES WITH CONSISTENCY ARISE BY LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AS A SECONDARY WAVE DIVES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BUT
THE GFS AND THE EURO ARE QUITE DIFFERENT ON HOW MUCH AND WHERE THAT
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH. A SECOND SHOT OF MOISTURE WITH
THIS WAVE IF IT MATERIALIZES WILL MEAN SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS
AND A PROLONGED EVENT POSSIBLE. ALONG WITH COLLABORATION...WILL KEEP
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE IT
SEEMS THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FIRST FRONT WILL BE
SLOW...SOME ACCUMULATION SEEMS LIKELY BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
INTO MONDAY MORNING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND IN THE NORTHWEST
BUT WILL BE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE APPROACH OF
THE COLD AIR AND DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE AS THIS WAVE TAKES SHAPE.

THE SECOND WAVE MOVES THROUGH BY TUESDAY EVENING WITH SOME HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN THE AREA. A SECOND WEAK FRONT LOOKS POISED TO
IMPACT THE AREA BY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN IN THIS
PATTERN...MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE IN QUESTION. TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE
RIGHT AROUND OR JUST BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 720 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

IFR/LIFR CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY BE THE RULE THROUGH DAWN ACROSS THE
AREA. RAIN/SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL END BETWEEN 10 AND
16Z ACROSS THE AREA...WITH CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SATURDAY FOR KYZ088-118.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN







000
FXUS63 KJKL 240020 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
720 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 720 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

A BAND OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION HAS LEFT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY. PORTIONS OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR HAVE BEEN ON THE
FRINGE OF THIS BAND AND THE COLDER AIR...WITH KFGX HAVING REPORTED
LIGHT SNOW FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AT 32 DEGREES...WHILE KSYM HAS
32 DEGREES AND RAIN. BASED ON THE IMPACTS JUST UPSTREAM...WENT AHEAD
AND ISSUED AN ADVISORY FROM ESTILL COUNTY TO ROWAN COUNTY AND WEST.
THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS INITIAL BAND WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH...WITH ADDITIONAL
PRECIP PIVOTING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS DRAWS CLOSER TO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS TRACKING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WITH A LARGE ARE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES AND EXTENDING NORTH AND WEST INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND OH
VALLEY. ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE AREA SOME SNOW OR SLEET
IS MIXING WITH RAIN...BUT MOST OF THE AREA IS EXPERIENCING A CHILLY
RAIN ATTM. LOCATIONS JUST TO THE WEST ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS ARE ALSO
EXPERIENCING SOME SNOW OR RAIN AND SNOW MIXED ATTM. AT THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS WORKING THROUGH THE MS VALLEY
TO THE GULF COAST WITH ANOTHER TROUGH WORKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
STREAM AND IS OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

THE TWO SHORTWAVES SHOULD BEGIN TO INTERACT AND PHASE TONIGHT...WITH
THE TROUGH STARTING TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED BY THE TIME IT MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE TOO LATE FOR ANY HEAVY
PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN KY. ALSO WITH THIS...SOME LEFT EXIT REGION JET
DYNAMICS COULD PLAY A ROLE LATE THIS EVENING AND AT LEAST PROLONG OR
POSSIBLY ENHANCE THE WRAPAROUND BAND OF PRECIP AS IT MOVES FROM
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KY. ANY STRONGER OMEGA WOULD LEAD TO SOME BANDING
AND POSSIBLE COOLING OF THE COLUMN AS THE WRAPAROUND BAND WORKS
TOWARD EASTERN KY. ALSO...AS THE SYSTEM TURNS NORTHEAST UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND DEPENDS...IT WILL ADVECT SOME SLIGHTLY COLDER
AIR INTO THE REGION...ENOUGH TO CHANGE THE PRECIP OVER TO ALL SNOW
LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RECENT MODEL RUNS
GENERALLY FAVOR TWO AREAS OF HIGHER QPF OVERNIGHT AND ALSO SNOWFALL.
THE ONE IS NEAR AND JUST NORTHWEST OF THE DANIEL BOONE NATIONAL
FOREST ESCARPMENT AND THE ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET WHERE PRECIP
SHOULD BE SNOW THE LONGEST. BELOW 2000 FEET...AN INCH OR LESS IS
ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE MARGINAL PROFILES...WITH SOME DEEPER VALLEYS
RECEIVING LITTLE MORE THAN A DUSTING. AT 2000 FEET AND ABOVE...ONE TO
AS MUCH AS THREE INCHES ARE ANTICIPATED. AN SPS WAS ISSUED TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS WINTRY PRECIP EVENT FOR MOST AREAS...WITH A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HARLAN AND LETCHER COUNTIES WHERE ROADWAYS CROSS
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AND AMOUNTS SHOULD BE A BIT HIGHER.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL WORKS ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY ON
SATURDAY...AND THE SFC LOW PULLS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST PRECIP
WILL END FROM NW TO SOUTHEAST. SOME CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW WILL BRING A THREAT
FOR SOME FLURRIES TO THE NORTH AND EAST ON SATURDAY EVENING. CLOUDS
SHOULD BE RATHER PERSISTENT AS QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
WILL BE APPROACHING THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION IN THE EARLY PART OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

AN ACTIVE AND MERIDIONAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK
FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS ARE STILL TRACKING
A SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS INTO THE OH
VALLEY AND THE GFS AND EURO BOTH SEEM TO HANDLE THIS FEATURE WELL
AND HAVE EVEN TRENDED DRIER WITH IT. A SLIGHTLY QUICKER EXIT OF THE
WAVE SEEMS POSSIBLE AS WELL. HOWEVER...IN THIS FLOW WITH A DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ANOTHER IMPULSE MAY MOVE
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE EURO AND GFS PICK
UP ON THIS FEATURE AND IT EXITS THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AS A MID LEVEL
RIDGE THEN DEVELOPS AND NOSES INTO THE AREA PROVIDING A PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PATTERN THEN WEAKENS
A BIT AS THE NEXT WAVE TAKES AIM AT THE OH VALLEY BY THURSDAY. AT
THIS TIME...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS AGAIN BY THE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY PERIOD.

THE MODEL ALL BLEND ALONG WITH THE TRENDS KEEP THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WARMER AIR
OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY SHOULD KEEP PRECIP IN ALL LIQUID FORM THROUGH
THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND MOST OF SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER GIVEN THE AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY WITH THIS FRONT...SHOULD SEE A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW A
BIT EARLIER AND SOME ACCUMULATION BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE MODEL ALL BLEND
FOLLOWS ALONG WITH THE EURO AND GFS HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
NORTHWEST WINDS SET UP...ALLOWING FOR FAVORABLE UPSLOPE THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. SOME ISSUES WITH CONSISTENCY ARISE BY LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AS A SECONDARY WAVE DIVES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BUT
THE GFS AND THE EURO ARE QUITE DIFFERENT ON HOW MUCH AND WHERE THAT
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH. A SECOND SHOT OF MOISTURE WITH
THIS WAVE IF IT MATERIALIZES WILL MEAN SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS
AND A PROLONGED EVENT POSSIBLE. ALONG WITH COLLABORATION...WILL KEEP
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE IT
SEEMS THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FIRST FRONT WILL BE
SLOW...SOME ACCUMULATION SEEMS LIKELY BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
INTO MONDAY MORNING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND IN THE NORTHWEST
BUT WILL BE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE APPROACH OF
THE COLD AIR AND DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE AS THIS WAVE TAKES SHAPE.

THE SECOND WAVE MOVES THROUGH BY TUESDAY EVENING WITH SOME HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN THE AREA. A SECOND WEAK FRONT LOOKS POISED TO
IMPACT THE AREA BY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN IN THIS
PATTERN...MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE IN QUESTION. TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE
RIGHT AROUND OR JUST BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 720 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

IFR/LIFR CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY BE THE RULE THROUGH DAWN ACROSS THE
AREA. RAIN/SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL END BETWEEN 10 AND
16Z ACROSS THE AREA...WITH CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR KYZ088-118.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN







000
FXUS63 KJKL 232138
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
438 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS TRACKING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WITH A LARGE ARE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES AND EXTENDING NORTH AND WEST INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND OH
VALLEY. ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE AREA SOME SNOW OR SLEET
IS MIXING WITH RAIN...BUT MOST OF THE AREA IS EXPERIENCING A CHILLY
RAIN ATTM. LOCATIONS JUST TO THE WEST ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS ARE ALSO
EXPERIENCING SOME SNOW OR RAIN AND SNOW MIXED ATTM. AT THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS WORKING THROUGH THE MS VALLEY
TO THE GULF COAST WITH ANOTHER TROUGH WORKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
STREAM AND IS OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

THE TWO SHORTWAVES SHOULD BEGIN TO INTERACT AND PHASE TONIGHT...WITH
THE TROUGH STARTING TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED BY THE TIME IT MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE TOO LATE FOR ANY HEAVY
PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN KY. ALSO WITH THIS...SOME LEFT EXIT REGION JET
DYNAMICS COULD PLAY A ROLE LATE THIS EVENING AND AT LEAST PROLONG OR
POSSIBLY ENHANCE THE WRAPAROUND BAND OF PRECIP AS IT MOVES FROM
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KY. ANY STRONGER OMEGA WOULD LEAD TO SOME BANDING
AND POSSIBLE COOLING OF THE COLUMN AS THE WRAPAROUND BAND WORKS
TOWARD EASTERN KY. ALSO...AS THE SYSTEM TURNS NORTHEAST UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND DEPENDS...IT WILL ADVECT SOME SLIGHTLY COLDER
AIR INTO THE REGION...ENOUGH TO CHANGE THE PRECIP OVER TO ALL SNOW
LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RECENT MODEL RUNS
GENERALLY FAVOR TWO AREAS OF HIGHER QPF OVERNIGHT AND ALSO SNOWFALL.
THE ONE IS NEAR AND JUST NORTHWEST OF THE DANIEL BOONE NATIONAL
FOREST ESCARPMENT AND THE ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET WHERE PRECIP
SHOULD BE SNOW THE LONGEST. BELOW 2000 FEET...AN INCH OR LESS IS
ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE MARGINAL PROFILES...WITH SOME DEEPER VALLEYS
RECEIVING LITTLE MORE THAN A DUSTING. AT 2000 FEET AND ABOVE...ONE TO
AS MUCH AS THREE INCHES ARE ANTICIPATED. AN SPS WAS ISSUED TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS WINTRY PRECIP EVENT FOR MOST AREAS...WITH A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HARLAN AND LETCHER COUNTIES WHERE ROADWAYS CROSS
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AND AMOUNTS SHOULD BE A BIT HIGHER.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL WORKS ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY ON
SATURDAY...AND THE SFC LOW PULLS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST PRECIP
WILL END FROM NW TO SOUTHEAST. SOME CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW WILL BRING A THREAT
FOR SOME FLURRIES TO THE NORTH AND EAST ON SATURDAY EVENING. CLOUDS
SHOULD BE RATHER PERSISTENT AS QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
WILL BE APPROACHING THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION IN THE EARLY PART OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

AN ACTIVE AND MERIDIONAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK
FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS ARE STILL TRACKING
A SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS INTO THE OH
VALLEY AND THE GFS AND EURO BOTH SEEM TO HANDLE THIS FEATURE WELL
AND HAVE EVEN TRENDED DRIER WITH IT. A SLIGHTLY QUICKER EXIT OF THE
WAVE SEEMS POSSIBLE AS WELL. HOWEVER...IN THIS FLOW WITH A DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ANOTHER IMPULSE MAY MOVE
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE EURO AND GFS PICK
UP ON THIS FEATURE AND IT EXITS THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AS A MID LEVEL
RIDGE THEN DEVELOPS AND NOSES INTO THE AREA PROVIDING A PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PATTERN THEN WEAKENS
A BIT AS THE NEXT WAVE TAKES AIM AT THE OH VALLEY BY THURSDAY. AT
THIS TIME...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS AGAIN BY THE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY PERIOD.

THE MODEL ALL BLEND ALONG WITH THE TRENDS KEEP THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WARMER AIR
OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY SHOULD KEEP PRECIP IN ALL LIQUID FORM THROUGH
THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND MOST OF SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER GIVEN THE AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY WITH THIS FRONT...SHOULD SEE A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW A
BIT EARLIER AND SOME ACCUMULATION BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE MODEL ALL BLEND
FOLLOWS ALONG WITH THE EURO AND GFS HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
NORTHWEST WINDS SET UP...ALLOWING FOR FAVORABLE UPSLOPE THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. SOME ISSUES WITH CONSISTENCY ARISE BY LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AS A SECONDARY WAVE DIVES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BUT
THE GFS AND THE EURO ARE QUITE DIFFERENT ON HOW MUCH AND WHERE THAT
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH. A SECOND SHOT OF MOISTURE WITH
THIS WAVE IF IT MATERIALIZES WILL MEAN SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS
AND A PROLONGED EVENT POSSIBLE. ALONG WITH COLLABORATION...WILL KEEP
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE IT
SEEMS THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FIRST FRONT WILL BE
SLOW...SOME ACCUMULATION SEEMS LIKELY BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
INTO MONDAY MORNING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND IN THE NORTHWEST
BUT WILL BE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE APPROACH OF
THE COLD AIR AND DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE AS THIS WAVE TAKES SHAPE.

THE SECOND WAVE MOVES THROUGH BY TUESDAY EVENING WITH SOME HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN THE AREA. A SECOND WEAK FRONT LOOKS POISED TO
IMPACT THE AREA BY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN IN THIS
PATTERN...MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE IN QUESTION. TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE
RIGHT AROUND OR JUST BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 105 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

A GRADUAL DETERIORATION TO MVFR IS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST 6 HOURS
OF THE PERIOD AS THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO SATURATE. THEN...FROM
0Z TO 8Z...AS PRECIP GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST FURTHER DETERIORATION TO IFR IS EXPECTED AND DURING THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP A FEW HOURS NEAR OR BELOW AIRPORT MINS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE SNOW WILL START TO TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE 8Z TO 15Z...
AND CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK UP ALONG AN NW OF A LINE FROM
KSME TO KSYM BEFORE 13Z...WITH GRADUAL IMPROVE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD ELSEWHERE.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR KYZ088-118.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JP








000
FXUS63 KJKL 232138
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
438 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS TRACKING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WITH A LARGE ARE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES AND EXTENDING NORTH AND WEST INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND OH
VALLEY. ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE AREA SOME SNOW OR SLEET
IS MIXING WITH RAIN...BUT MOST OF THE AREA IS EXPERIENCING A CHILLY
RAIN ATTM. LOCATIONS JUST TO THE WEST ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS ARE ALSO
EXPERIENCING SOME SNOW OR RAIN AND SNOW MIXED ATTM. AT THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS WORKING THROUGH THE MS VALLEY
TO THE GULF COAST WITH ANOTHER TROUGH WORKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
STREAM AND IS OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

THE TWO SHORTWAVES SHOULD BEGIN TO INTERACT AND PHASE TONIGHT...WITH
THE TROUGH STARTING TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED BY THE TIME IT MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE TOO LATE FOR ANY HEAVY
PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN KY. ALSO WITH THIS...SOME LEFT EXIT REGION JET
DYNAMICS COULD PLAY A ROLE LATE THIS EVENING AND AT LEAST PROLONG OR
POSSIBLY ENHANCE THE WRAPAROUND BAND OF PRECIP AS IT MOVES FROM
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KY. ANY STRONGER OMEGA WOULD LEAD TO SOME BANDING
AND POSSIBLE COOLING OF THE COLUMN AS THE WRAPAROUND BAND WORKS
TOWARD EASTERN KY. ALSO...AS THE SYSTEM TURNS NORTHEAST UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND DEPENDS...IT WILL ADVECT SOME SLIGHTLY COLDER
AIR INTO THE REGION...ENOUGH TO CHANGE THE PRECIP OVER TO ALL SNOW
LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RECENT MODEL RUNS
GENERALLY FAVOR TWO AREAS OF HIGHER QPF OVERNIGHT AND ALSO SNOWFALL.
THE ONE IS NEAR AND JUST NORTHWEST OF THE DANIEL BOONE NATIONAL
FOREST ESCARPMENT AND THE ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET WHERE PRECIP
SHOULD BE SNOW THE LONGEST. BELOW 2000 FEET...AN INCH OR LESS IS
ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE MARGINAL PROFILES...WITH SOME DEEPER VALLEYS
RECEIVING LITTLE MORE THAN A DUSTING. AT 2000 FEET AND ABOVE...ONE TO
AS MUCH AS THREE INCHES ARE ANTICIPATED. AN SPS WAS ISSUED TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS WINTRY PRECIP EVENT FOR MOST AREAS...WITH A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HARLAN AND LETCHER COUNTIES WHERE ROADWAYS CROSS
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AND AMOUNTS SHOULD BE A BIT HIGHER.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL WORKS ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY ON
SATURDAY...AND THE SFC LOW PULLS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST PRECIP
WILL END FROM NW TO SOUTHEAST. SOME CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW WILL BRING A THREAT
FOR SOME FLURRIES TO THE NORTH AND EAST ON SATURDAY EVENING. CLOUDS
SHOULD BE RATHER PERSISTENT AS QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
WILL BE APPROACHING THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION IN THE EARLY PART OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

AN ACTIVE AND MERIDIONAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK
FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS ARE STILL TRACKING
A SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS INTO THE OH
VALLEY AND THE GFS AND EURO BOTH SEEM TO HANDLE THIS FEATURE WELL
AND HAVE EVEN TRENDED DRIER WITH IT. A SLIGHTLY QUICKER EXIT OF THE
WAVE SEEMS POSSIBLE AS WELL. HOWEVER...IN THIS FLOW WITH A DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ANOTHER IMPULSE MAY MOVE
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE EURO AND GFS PICK
UP ON THIS FEATURE AND IT EXITS THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AS A MID LEVEL
RIDGE THEN DEVELOPS AND NOSES INTO THE AREA PROVIDING A PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PATTERN THEN WEAKENS
A BIT AS THE NEXT WAVE TAKES AIM AT THE OH VALLEY BY THURSDAY. AT
THIS TIME...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS AGAIN BY THE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY PERIOD.

THE MODEL ALL BLEND ALONG WITH THE TRENDS KEEP THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WARMER AIR
OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY SHOULD KEEP PRECIP IN ALL LIQUID FORM THROUGH
THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND MOST OF SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER GIVEN THE AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY WITH THIS FRONT...SHOULD SEE A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW A
BIT EARLIER AND SOME ACCUMULATION BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE MODEL ALL BLEND
FOLLOWS ALONG WITH THE EURO AND GFS HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
NORTHWEST WINDS SET UP...ALLOWING FOR FAVORABLE UPSLOPE THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. SOME ISSUES WITH CONSISTENCY ARISE BY LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AS A SECONDARY WAVE DIVES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BUT
THE GFS AND THE EURO ARE QUITE DIFFERENT ON HOW MUCH AND WHERE THAT
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH. A SECOND SHOT OF MOISTURE WITH
THIS WAVE IF IT MATERIALIZES WILL MEAN SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS
AND A PROLONGED EVENT POSSIBLE. ALONG WITH COLLABORATION...WILL KEEP
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE IT
SEEMS THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FIRST FRONT WILL BE
SLOW...SOME ACCUMULATION SEEMS LIKELY BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
INTO MONDAY MORNING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND IN THE NORTHWEST
BUT WILL BE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE APPROACH OF
THE COLD AIR AND DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE AS THIS WAVE TAKES SHAPE.

THE SECOND WAVE MOVES THROUGH BY TUESDAY EVENING WITH SOME HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN THE AREA. A SECOND WEAK FRONT LOOKS POISED TO
IMPACT THE AREA BY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN IN THIS
PATTERN...MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE IN QUESTION. TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE
RIGHT AROUND OR JUST BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 105 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

A GRADUAL DETERIORATION TO MVFR IS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST 6 HOURS
OF THE PERIOD AS THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO SATURATE. THEN...FROM
0Z TO 8Z...AS PRECIP GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST FURTHER DETERIORATION TO IFR IS EXPECTED AND DURING THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP A FEW HOURS NEAR OR BELOW AIRPORT MINS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE SNOW WILL START TO TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE 8Z TO 15Z...
AND CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK UP ALONG AN NW OF A LINE FROM
KSME TO KSYM BEFORE 13Z...WITH GRADUAL IMPROVE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD ELSEWHERE.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR KYZ088-118.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JP







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