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000
FXUS63 KJKL 251900
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
300 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
WITH LITTLE FANFARE. HOWEVER...ITS PRESENCE DOES COMPLICATE WHAT
WOULD BE AN OTHERWISE BENIGN FORECAST AS MOISTURE POOLING IN ADVANCE
OF THE BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN A RIBBON OF AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...MAINLY BELOW 900 MB ADVECTING INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT
AND SURFACE WINDS SUBSIDE...IT IS POSSIBLE WIDESPREAD FOG MAY
DEVELOP. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS WOULD BE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. SHOULD ENOUGH MIXING HANG IN...THIS MAY
MANIFEST AS A LOW CLOUD DECK WITH JUST PATCHY FOG AT THE SURFACE.
SO...WILL STAY CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW AND JUST MENTION PATCHY FOG IN
THE FORECAST.

THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY. TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY AS THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPORARILY
STALLS OUR WARMING TREND. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL FALL INTO THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE RANGE FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

COMING SOON...

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE
REGION...WITH MVFR CIELINGS OBSERVED MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64.
THE LOWER CIGS MAY MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS JKL...THUS THE TEMPO MVFR
CONDITIONS IN THAT TAF...BUT OTHERWISE CLOUDS SHOULD STAY VFR THIS
AFTERNOON. A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT LOW CLOUDS MAY REDEVELOP TONIGHT
AS HAPPENED LAST NIGHT IN A SIMILAR POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT IN
CENTRAL ILLINOIS. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS VERY SHALLOW AND LOW LEVEL
WINDS STAY NORTHWESTERLY...NOT THE NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION WHICH
TYPICALLY BRINGS THE LOW CIGS. SO...WILL ONLY ADVERTISE SCATTERED
CLOUDS AND SOME MVFR FOG AT LOZ AND SME LATE TONIGHT FOR NOW.
TOMORROW SHOULD BRING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...ABE






000
FXUS63 KJKL 251900
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
300 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
WITH LITTLE FANFARE. HOWEVER...ITS PRESENCE DOES COMPLICATE WHAT
WOULD BE AN OTHERWISE BENIGN FORECAST AS MOISTURE POOLING IN ADVANCE
OF THE BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN A RIBBON OF AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...MAINLY BELOW 900 MB ADVECTING INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT
AND SURFACE WINDS SUBSIDE...IT IS POSSIBLE WIDESPREAD FOG MAY
DEVELOP. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS WOULD BE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. SHOULD ENOUGH MIXING HANG IN...THIS MAY
MANIFEST AS A LOW CLOUD DECK WITH JUST PATCHY FOG AT THE SURFACE.
SO...WILL STAY CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW AND JUST MENTION PATCHY FOG IN
THE FORECAST.

THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY. TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY AS THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPORARILY
STALLS OUR WARMING TREND. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL FALL INTO THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE RANGE FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

COMING SOON...

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE
REGION...WITH MVFR CIELINGS OBSERVED MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64.
THE LOWER CIGS MAY MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS JKL...THUS THE TEMPO MVFR
CONDITIONS IN THAT TAF...BUT OTHERWISE CLOUDS SHOULD STAY VFR THIS
AFTERNOON. A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT LOW CLOUDS MAY REDEVELOP TONIGHT
AS HAPPENED LAST NIGHT IN A SIMILAR POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT IN
CENTRAL ILLINOIS. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS VERY SHALLOW AND LOW LEVEL
WINDS STAY NORTHWESTERLY...NOT THE NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION WHICH
TYPICALLY BRINGS THE LOW CIGS. SO...WILL ONLY ADVERTISE SCATTERED
CLOUDS AND SOME MVFR FOG AT LOZ AND SME LATE TONIGHT FOR NOW.
TOMORROW SHOULD BRING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...ABE






000
FXUS63 KJKL 251754
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
154 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

CLOUDS ARE COMING IN A TAD QUICKER THAN FORECAST SO MADE A MINOR
UPDATE TO SPEED UP THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND TO TWEAK NEAR
TERM TEMPS...WHICH HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOW TO RISE IN THE FOGGY
SPOTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE TEMPS...DEWPOINTS...AND SKY
COVER INTO MID MORNING BASED ON THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT IS NOTED TO THE
NORTHWEST. THIS HIGH HAS KEPT THE CLOUDS AT BAY TONIGHT AND LED TO A
GOOD NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. AS SUCH...COMBINED WITH NEARLY
CALM WINDS...A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLIT IS UNDERWAY WITH TEMPS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS TO THE MID 40S ON
THE RIDGES. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS FALLING TOWARD THE
DEWPOINTS WE ARE SEEING PATCHY FOG FORMATION. THIS FOG SHOULD KEEP
MOST OF THE COLD SPOTS FROM PICKING UP ANY FROST EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT IT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT AWAY FROM RIVERS...
CREEKS...AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH A QUIET WEATHER PERIOD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEY ALL FLATTEN OUT A SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE IN
RESPONSE TO A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
INTO NEW ENGLAND. HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION WILL REMAIN SIMILAR DURING
THIS TRANSITION BEFORE TICKING UP IN THE TROUGH/S WAKE ON SUNDAY AS
SOME RIDGING OOZES EAST INTO OUR AREA. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK
ENERGY PASSING OVER EAST KENTUCKY TODAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
TROUGH MOVING BY TO THE NORTH...BUT IT SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH WX
WISE. GIVEN THE MODEL SIMILARITIES HAVE FAVORED THE NAM12 FOR
FORECAST SPECIFICS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER COUPLE DRY AND PLEASANT DAYS
SANDWICHING A QUIET NIGHT. A COLD DRY FRONT WILL BRING MAINLY HIGH
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO EASTERN KENTUCKY LATER TODAY AND EARLY
TONIGHT BEFORE CLEARING LATE. SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE AS WARM AS
TODAY...OR A TAD WARMER...EVEN POST FRONTAL OWING TO A RETURN OF
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.

WITH THE TEMPERATURE...DEWPOINT...AND WIND GRIDS THE CONSSHORT...AND
ITS BC VERSION...WERE USED AS A STARTING POINT THROUGH THE FIRST 18
TO 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE
SOME CHANGES TO BETTER REFLECT THE...AT LEAST MINOR...RIDGE VALLEY
DIFFERENCES ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN TONIGHT.
POPS THOROUGH THE PERIOD WERE KEPT LOW...IN LINE WITH THE VALUES FROM
THE MOS GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH ON A FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF THE FRONT...MAKING
THE CHALLENGE IN THIS FORECAST WHEN WILL PRECIPITATION ARRIVE IN
EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE OTHER CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND THE LATE
WEEK/NEXT WEEKEND PERIOD AS MODELS CONTINUE TO BE ALL OVER THE PLACE
WITH VARIOUS SCENARIOS...ALL INVOLVING A COLDER AIRMASS. THE 00Z
ECMWF CERTAINLY DID NOT MAKE THINGS ANY EASIER AS IT NOW HAS A CUT
OFF LOW OVER TENNESSEE BY WEEKS END. CLEARLY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS NOT GREAT AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.

FORTUNATELY...THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST CAN BE AGREED UPON AS
MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY
NIGHT...SHOULD SHOULD YIELD FAIRLY GOOD RIDGE/VALLEY SPLITS AS
VALLEYS FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 40S WHILE RIDGES STAY A TAD MILDER
WITH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE LOW 50S. REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES
WILL RESPOND QUICKLY ON MONDAY WARMING TO AROUND 80 BY THE
AFTERNOON. MODELS REMAIN FAR TOO AGGRESSIVE ON MOISTURE RETURN AND
HAVE KEPT DEWPOINTS LOWER...CLOSER TO MOS GUIDANCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE FAIRLY MILD CONDITIONS AS WE REMAIN AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ON TUESDAY...GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO
DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE 00Z GFS
REMAINS THE FASTER SOLUTION BRINGING THE FRONT INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. THE ECWMF KEEPS THE FRONT TO OUR WEST THROUGH THIS
TIME. GIVEN THE FASTER POSSIBILITY...HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT IN
OUR WESTERN ZONES...AND BROUGHT SOME LOWER POPS A BIT FARTHER EAST.
IT LOOKS LIKE A SURE BET BY TUESDAY NIGHT...MOST AREAS WILL SEE SOME
RAIN AS THE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA...AND WILL MAINTAIN THE
LIKELY POPS. STILL LOOKS LIKE MEAGER INSTABILITY...SO WILL MAINTAIN
NO THUNDER AS WELL. MODELS ARE NOW AGREEING THAT THE FRONT WILL EXIT
THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...KEEPING EASTERN KENTUCKY DRY. IT LOOKS
LIKE AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY DROP ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AND COULD PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS.
HOWEVER...THIS IS THE POINT WHERE MODELS END UP ALL OVER THE PLACE.
FOR NOW...OPTING TO KEEP FRIDAY NIGHT ONWARD DRY...BUT GIVEN THE
LATEST ECMWF RUN...WE MAY NEED MORE POPS INTO THE WEEKEND AND
BEYOND. IF A WETTER SCENARIO PLAYS OUT...THIS MAY LIMIT FROST/FREEZE
POTENTIAL THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. IF A DRIER
SCENARIO PLAYS OUT...WE COULD SEE SOME PRETTY GOOD FROST COVERAGE
AND PERHAPS A FREEZE IN SOME AREAS. CERTAINLY THOSE WITH
AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS SHOULD CHECK BACK REGARDING NEXT WEEKENDS
FORECAST. FOR NOW...OPTING TO HEDGE ON TEMPERATURES AND NOT GO WITH
EITHER EXTREME AND STAY CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY UNTIL MODELS CAN REACH
BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE
REGION...WITH MVFR CIELINGS OBSERVED MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64.
THE LOWER CIGS MAY MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS JKL...THUS THE TEMPO MVFR
CONDITIONS IN THAT TAF...BUT OTHERWISE CLOUDS SHOULD STAY VFR THIS
AFTERNOON. A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT LOW CLOUDS MAY REDEVELOP TONIGHT
AS HAPPENED LAST NIGHT IN A SIMILAR POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT IN
CENTRAL ILLINOIS. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS VERY SHALLOW AND LOW LEVEL
WINDS STAY NORTHWESTERLY...NOT THE NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION WHICH
TYPICALLY BRINGS THE LOW CIGS. SO...WILL ONLY ADVERTISE SCATTERED
CLOUDS AND SOME MVFR FOG AT LOZ AND SME LATE TONIGHT FOR NOW.
TOMORROW SHOULD BRING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ABE
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...ABE






000
FXUS63 KJKL 251754
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
154 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

CLOUDS ARE COMING IN A TAD QUICKER THAN FORECAST SO MADE A MINOR
UPDATE TO SPEED UP THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND TO TWEAK NEAR
TERM TEMPS...WHICH HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOW TO RISE IN THE FOGGY
SPOTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE TEMPS...DEWPOINTS...AND SKY
COVER INTO MID MORNING BASED ON THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT IS NOTED TO THE
NORTHWEST. THIS HIGH HAS KEPT THE CLOUDS AT BAY TONIGHT AND LED TO A
GOOD NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. AS SUCH...COMBINED WITH NEARLY
CALM WINDS...A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLIT IS UNDERWAY WITH TEMPS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS TO THE MID 40S ON
THE RIDGES. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS FALLING TOWARD THE
DEWPOINTS WE ARE SEEING PATCHY FOG FORMATION. THIS FOG SHOULD KEEP
MOST OF THE COLD SPOTS FROM PICKING UP ANY FROST EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT IT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT AWAY FROM RIVERS...
CREEKS...AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH A QUIET WEATHER PERIOD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEY ALL FLATTEN OUT A SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE IN
RESPONSE TO A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
INTO NEW ENGLAND. HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION WILL REMAIN SIMILAR DURING
THIS TRANSITION BEFORE TICKING UP IN THE TROUGH/S WAKE ON SUNDAY AS
SOME RIDGING OOZES EAST INTO OUR AREA. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK
ENERGY PASSING OVER EAST KENTUCKY TODAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
TROUGH MOVING BY TO THE NORTH...BUT IT SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH WX
WISE. GIVEN THE MODEL SIMILARITIES HAVE FAVORED THE NAM12 FOR
FORECAST SPECIFICS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER COUPLE DRY AND PLEASANT DAYS
SANDWICHING A QUIET NIGHT. A COLD DRY FRONT WILL BRING MAINLY HIGH
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO EASTERN KENTUCKY LATER TODAY AND EARLY
TONIGHT BEFORE CLEARING LATE. SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE AS WARM AS
TODAY...OR A TAD WARMER...EVEN POST FRONTAL OWING TO A RETURN OF
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.

WITH THE TEMPERATURE...DEWPOINT...AND WIND GRIDS THE CONSSHORT...AND
ITS BC VERSION...WERE USED AS A STARTING POINT THROUGH THE FIRST 18
TO 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE
SOME CHANGES TO BETTER REFLECT THE...AT LEAST MINOR...RIDGE VALLEY
DIFFERENCES ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN TONIGHT.
POPS THOROUGH THE PERIOD WERE KEPT LOW...IN LINE WITH THE VALUES FROM
THE MOS GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH ON A FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF THE FRONT...MAKING
THE CHALLENGE IN THIS FORECAST WHEN WILL PRECIPITATION ARRIVE IN
EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE OTHER CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND THE LATE
WEEK/NEXT WEEKEND PERIOD AS MODELS CONTINUE TO BE ALL OVER THE PLACE
WITH VARIOUS SCENARIOS...ALL INVOLVING A COLDER AIRMASS. THE 00Z
ECMWF CERTAINLY DID NOT MAKE THINGS ANY EASIER AS IT NOW HAS A CUT
OFF LOW OVER TENNESSEE BY WEEKS END. CLEARLY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS NOT GREAT AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.

FORTUNATELY...THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST CAN BE AGREED UPON AS
MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY
NIGHT...SHOULD SHOULD YIELD FAIRLY GOOD RIDGE/VALLEY SPLITS AS
VALLEYS FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 40S WHILE RIDGES STAY A TAD MILDER
WITH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE LOW 50S. REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES
WILL RESPOND QUICKLY ON MONDAY WARMING TO AROUND 80 BY THE
AFTERNOON. MODELS REMAIN FAR TOO AGGRESSIVE ON MOISTURE RETURN AND
HAVE KEPT DEWPOINTS LOWER...CLOSER TO MOS GUIDANCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE FAIRLY MILD CONDITIONS AS WE REMAIN AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ON TUESDAY...GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO
DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE 00Z GFS
REMAINS THE FASTER SOLUTION BRINGING THE FRONT INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. THE ECWMF KEEPS THE FRONT TO OUR WEST THROUGH THIS
TIME. GIVEN THE FASTER POSSIBILITY...HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT IN
OUR WESTERN ZONES...AND BROUGHT SOME LOWER POPS A BIT FARTHER EAST.
IT LOOKS LIKE A SURE BET BY TUESDAY NIGHT...MOST AREAS WILL SEE SOME
RAIN AS THE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA...AND WILL MAINTAIN THE
LIKELY POPS. STILL LOOKS LIKE MEAGER INSTABILITY...SO WILL MAINTAIN
NO THUNDER AS WELL. MODELS ARE NOW AGREEING THAT THE FRONT WILL EXIT
THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...KEEPING EASTERN KENTUCKY DRY. IT LOOKS
LIKE AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY DROP ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AND COULD PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS.
HOWEVER...THIS IS THE POINT WHERE MODELS END UP ALL OVER THE PLACE.
FOR NOW...OPTING TO KEEP FRIDAY NIGHT ONWARD DRY...BUT GIVEN THE
LATEST ECMWF RUN...WE MAY NEED MORE POPS INTO THE WEEKEND AND
BEYOND. IF A WETTER SCENARIO PLAYS OUT...THIS MAY LIMIT FROST/FREEZE
POTENTIAL THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. IF A DRIER
SCENARIO PLAYS OUT...WE COULD SEE SOME PRETTY GOOD FROST COVERAGE
AND PERHAPS A FREEZE IN SOME AREAS. CERTAINLY THOSE WITH
AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS SHOULD CHECK BACK REGARDING NEXT WEEKENDS
FORECAST. FOR NOW...OPTING TO HEDGE ON TEMPERATURES AND NOT GO WITH
EITHER EXTREME AND STAY CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY UNTIL MODELS CAN REACH
BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE
REGION...WITH MVFR CIELINGS OBSERVED MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64.
THE LOWER CIGS MAY MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS JKL...THUS THE TEMPO MVFR
CONDITIONS IN THAT TAF...BUT OTHERWISE CLOUDS SHOULD STAY VFR THIS
AFTERNOON. A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT LOW CLOUDS MAY REDEVELOP TONIGHT
AS HAPPENED LAST NIGHT IN A SIMILAR POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT IN
CENTRAL ILLINOIS. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS VERY SHALLOW AND LOW LEVEL
WINDS STAY NORTHWESTERLY...NOT THE NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION WHICH
TYPICALLY BRINGS THE LOW CIGS. SO...WILL ONLY ADVERTISE SCATTERED
CLOUDS AND SOME MVFR FOG AT LOZ AND SME LATE TONIGHT FOR NOW.
TOMORROW SHOULD BRING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ABE
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...ABE






000
FXUS63 KJKL 251400
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1000 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

CLOUDS ARE COMING IN A TAD QUICKER THAN FORECAST SO MADE A MINOR
UPDATE TO SPEED UP THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND TO TWEAK NEAR
TERM TEMPS...WHICH HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOW TO RISE IN THE FOGGY
SPOTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE TEMPS...DEWPOINTS...AND SKY
COVER INTO MID MORNING BASED ON THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT IS NOTED TO THE
NORTHWEST. THIS HIGH HAS KEPT THE CLOUDS AT BAY TONIGHT AND LED TO A
GOOD NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. AS SUCH...COMBINED WITH NEARLY
CALM WINDS...A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLIT IS UNDERWAY WITH TEMPS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS TO THE MID 40S ON
THE RIDGES. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS FALLING TOWARD THE
DEWPOINTS WE ARE SEEING PATCHY FOG FORMATION. THIS FOG SHOULD KEEP
MOST OF THE COLD SPOTS FROM PICKING UP ANY FROST EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT IT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT AWAY FROM RIVERS...
CREEKS...AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH A QUIET WEATHER PERIOD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEY ALL FLATTEN OUT A SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE IN
RESPONSE TO A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
INTO NEW ENGLAND. HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION WILL REMAIN SIMILAR DURING
THIS TRANSITION BEFORE TICKING UP IN THE TROUGH/S WAKE ON SUNDAY AS
SOME RIDGING OOZES EAST INTO OUR AREA. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK
ENERGY PASSING OVER EAST KENTUCKY TODAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
TROUGH MOVING BY TO THE NORTH...BUT IT SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH WX
WISE. GIVEN THE MODEL SIMILARITIES HAVE FAVORED THE NAM12 FOR
FORECAST SPECIFICS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER COUPLE DRY AND PLEASANT DAYS
SANDWICHING A QUIET NIGHT. A COLD DRY FRONT WILL BRING MAINLY HIGH
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO EASTERN KENTUCKY LATER TODAY AND EARLY
TONIGHT BEFORE CLEARING LATE. SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE AS WARM AS
TODAY...OR A TAD WARMER...EVEN POST FRONTAL OWING TO A RETURN OF
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.

WITH THE TEMPERATURE...DEWPOINT...AND WIND GRIDS THE CONSSHORT...AND
ITS BC VERSION...WERE USED AS A STARTING POINT THROUGH THE FIRST 18
TO 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE
SOME CHANGES TO BETTER REFLECT THE...AT LEAST MINOR...RIDGE VALLEY
DIFFERENCES ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN TONIGHT.
POPS THOROUGH THE PERIOD WERE KEPT LOW...IN LINE WITH THE VALUES FROM
THE MOS GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH ON A FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF THE FRONT...MAKING
THE CHALLENGE IN THIS FORECAST WHEN WILL PRECIPITATION ARRIVE IN
EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE OTHER CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND THE LATE
WEEK/NEXT WEEKEND PERIOD AS MODELS CONTINUE TO BE ALL OVER THE PLACE
WITH VARIOUS SCENARIOS...ALL INVOLVING A COLDER AIRMASS. THE 00Z
ECMWF CERTAINLY DID NOT MAKE THINGS ANY EASIER AS IT NOW HAS A CUT
OFF LOW OVER TENNESSEE BY WEEKS END. CLEARLY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS NOT GREAT AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.

FORTUNATELY...THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST CAN BE AGREED UPON AS
MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY
NIGHT...SHOULD SHOULD YIELD FAIRLY GOOD RIDGE/VALLEY SPLITS AS
VALLEYS FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 40S WHILE RIDGES STAY A TAD MILDER
WITH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE LOW 50S. REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES
WILL RESPOND QUICKLY ON MONDAY WARMING TO AROUND 80 BY THE
AFTERNOON. MODELS REMAIN FAR TOO AGGRESSIVE ON MOISTURE RETURN AND
HAVE KEPT DEWPOINTS LOWER...CLOSER TO MOS GUIDANCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE FAIRLY MILD CONDITIONS AS WE REMAIN AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ON TUESDAY...GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO
DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE 00Z GFS
REMAINS THE FASTER SOLUTION BRINGING THE FRONT INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. THE ECWMF KEEPS THE FRONT TO OUR WEST THROUGH THIS
TIME. GIVEN THE FASTER POSSIBILITY...HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT IN
OUR WESTERN ZONES...AND BROUGHT SOME LOWER POPS A BIT FARTHER EAST.
IT LOOKS LIKE A SURE BET BY TUESDAY NIGHT...MOST AREAS WILL SEE SOME
RAIN AS THE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA...AND WILL MAINTAIN THE
LIKELY POPS. STILL LOOKS LIKE MEAGER INSTABILITY...SO WILL MAINTAIN
NO THUNDER AS WELL. MODELS ARE NOW AGREEING THAT THE FRONT WILL EXIT
THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...KEEPING EASTERN KENTUCKY DRY. IT LOOKS
LIKE AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY DROP ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AND COULD PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS.
HOWEVER...THIS IS THE POINT WHERE MODELS END UP ALL OVER THE PLACE.
FOR NOW...OPTING TO KEEP FRIDAY NIGHT ONWARD DRY...BUT GIVEN THE
LATEST ECMWF RUN...WE MAY NEED MORE POPS INTO THE WEEKEND AND
BEYOND. IF A WETTER SCENARIO PLAYS OUT...THIS MAY LIMIT FROST/FREEZE
POTENTIAL THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. IF A DRIER
SCENARIO PLAYS OUT...WE COULD SEE SOME PRETTY GOOD FROST COVERAGE
AND PERHAPS A FREEZE IN SOME AREAS. CERTAINLY THOSE WITH
AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS SHOULD CHECK BACK REGARDING NEXT WEEKENDS
FORECAST. FOR NOW...OPTING TO HEDGE ON TEMPERATURES AND NOT GO WITH
EITHER EXTREME AND STAY CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY UNTIL MODELS CAN REACH
BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 715 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

PATCHY FOG HAS FORMED IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS AND ALONG THE RIVERS.
SOME OF THIS CREPT INTO SME BRIEFLY. ANY EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS
WILL CLEAR UP BY 13Z. DURING THE DAY...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
WITH FIRST CIRRUS THEN SOME MID AND LOW CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA.
A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY BY
EVENING...HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. VIRGA OR A COUPLE OF
SPRINKLES WILL BE AN OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY...HOWEVER THIS WOULD NOT
AFFECT FLIGHT OPERATIONS. IN THE MEANTIME...WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ABE
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF








000
FXUS63 KJKL 251115 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
715 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE TEMPS...DEWPOINTS...AND SKY
COVER INTO MID MORNING BASED ON THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT IS NOTED TO THE
NORTHWEST. THIS HIGH HAS KEPT THE CLOUDS AT BAY TONIGHT AND LED TO A
GOOD NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. AS SUCH...COMBINED WITH NEARLY
CALM WINDS...A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLIT IS UNDERWAY WITH TEMPS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS TO THE MID 40S ON
THE RIDGES. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS FALLING TOWARD THE
DEWPOINTS WE ARE SEEING PATCHY FOG FORMATION. THIS FOG SHOULD KEEP
MOST OF THE COLD SPOTS FROM PICKING UP ANY FROST EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT IT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT AWAY FROM RIVERS...
CREEKS...AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH A QUIET WEATHER PERIOD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEY ALL FLATTEN OUT A SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE IN
RESPONSE TO A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
INTO NEW ENGLAND. HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION WILL REMAIN SIMILAR DURING
THIS TRANSITION BEFORE TICKING UP IN THE TROUGH/S WAKE ON SUNDAY AS
SOME RIDGING OOZES EAST INTO OUR AREA. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK
ENERGY PASSING OVER EAST KENTUCKY TODAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
TROUGH MOVING BY TO THE NORTH...BUT IT SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH WX
WISE. GIVEN THE MODEL SIMILARITIES HAVE FAVORED THE NAM12 FOR
FORECAST SPECIFICS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER COUPLE DRY AND PLEASANT DAYS
SANDWICHING A QUIET NIGHT. A COLD DRY FRONT WILL BRING MAINLY HIGH
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO EASTERN KENTUCKY LATER TODAY AND EARLY
TONIGHT BEFORE CLEARING LATE. SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE AS WARM AS
TODAY...OR A TAD WARMER...EVEN POST FRONTAL OWING TO A RETURN OF
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.

WITH THE TEMPERATURE...DEWPOINT...AND WIND GRIDS THE CONSSHORT...AND
ITS BC VERSION...WERE USED AS A STARTING POINT THROUGH THE FIRST 18
TO 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE
SOME CHANGES TO BETTER REFLECT THE...AT LEAST MINOR...RIDGE VALLEY
DIFFERENCES ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN TONIGHT.
POPS THOROUGH THE PERIOD WERE KEPT LOW...IN LINE WITH THE VALUES FROM
THE MOS GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH ON A FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF THE FRONT...MAKING
THE CHALLENGE IN THIS FORECAST WHEN WILL PRECIPITATION ARRIVE IN
EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE OTHER CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND THE LATE
WEEK/NEXT WEEKEND PERIOD AS MODELS CONTINUE TO BE ALL OVER THE PLACE
WITH VARIOUS SCENARIOS...ALL INVOLVING A COLDER AIRMASS. THE 00Z
ECMWF CERTAINLY DID NOT MAKE THINGS ANY EASIER AS IT NOW HAS A CUT
OFF LOW OVER TENNESSEE BY WEEKS END. CLEARLY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS NOT GREAT AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.

FORTUNATELY...THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST CAN BE AGREED UPON AS
MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY
NIGHT...SHOULD SHOULD YIELD FAIRLY GOOD RIDGE/VALLEY SPLITS AS
VALLEYS FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 40S WHILE RIDGES STAY A TAD MILDER
WITH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE LOW 50S. REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES
WILL RESPOND QUICKLY ON MONDAY WARMING TO AROUND 80 BY THE
AFTERNOON. MODELS REMAIN FAR TOO AGGRESSIVE ON MOISTURE RETURN AND
HAVE KEPT DEWPOINTS LOWER...CLOSER TO MOS GUIDANCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE FAIRLY MILD CONDITIONS AS WE REMAIN AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ON TUESDAY...GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO
DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE 00Z GFS
REMAINS THE FASTER SOLUTION BRINGING THE FRONT INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. THE ECWMF KEEPS THE FRONT TO OUR WEST THROUGH THIS
TIME. GIVEN THE FASTER POSSIBILITY...HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT IN
OUR WESTERN ZONES...AND BROUGHT SOME LOWER POPS A BIT FARTHER EAST.
IT LOOKS LIKE A SURE BET BY TUESDAY NIGHT...MOST AREAS WILL SEE SOME
RAIN AS THE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA...AND WILL MAINTAIN THE
LIKELY POPS. STILL LOOKS LIKE MEAGER INSTABILITY...SO WILL MAINTAIN
NO THUNDER AS WELL. MODELS ARE NOW AGREEING THAT THE FRONT WILL EXIT
THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...KEEPING EASTERN KENTUCKY DRY. IT LOOKS
LIKE AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY DROP ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AND COULD PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS.
HOWEVER...THIS IS THE POINT WHERE MODELS END UP ALL OVER THE PLACE.
FOR NOW...OPTING TO KEEP FRIDAY NIGHT ONWARD DRY...BUT GIVEN THE
LATEST ECMWF RUN...WE MAY NEED MORE POPS INTO THE WEEKEND AND
BEYOND. IF A WETTER SCENARIO PLAYS OUT...THIS MAY LIMIT FROST/FREEZE
POTENTIAL THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. IF A DRIER
SCENARIO PLAYS OUT...WE COULD SEE SOME PRETTY GOOD FROST COVERAGE
AND PERHAPS A FREEZE IN SOME AREAS. CERTAINLY THOSE WITH
AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS SHOULD CHECK BACK REGARDING NEXT WEEKENDS
FORECAST. FOR NOW...OPTING TO HEDGE ON TEMPERATURES AND NOT GO WITH
EITHER EXTREME AND STAY CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY UNTIL MODELS CAN REACH
BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 715 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

PATCHY FOG HAS FORMED IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS AND ALONG THE RIVERS.
SOME OF THIS CREPT INTO SME BRIEFLY. ANY EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS
WILL CLEAR UP BY 13Z. DURING THE DAY...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
WITH FIRST CIRRUS THEN SOME MID AND LOW CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA.
A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY BY
EVENING...HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. VIRGA OR A COUPLE OF
SPRINKLES WILL BE AN OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY...HOWEVER THIS WOULD NOT
AFFECT FLIGHT OPERATIONS. IN THE MEANTIME...WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF






000
FXUS63 KJKL 251115 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
715 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE TEMPS...DEWPOINTS...AND SKY
COVER INTO MID MORNING BASED ON THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT IS NOTED TO THE
NORTHWEST. THIS HIGH HAS KEPT THE CLOUDS AT BAY TONIGHT AND LED TO A
GOOD NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. AS SUCH...COMBINED WITH NEARLY
CALM WINDS...A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLIT IS UNDERWAY WITH TEMPS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS TO THE MID 40S ON
THE RIDGES. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS FALLING TOWARD THE
DEWPOINTS WE ARE SEEING PATCHY FOG FORMATION. THIS FOG SHOULD KEEP
MOST OF THE COLD SPOTS FROM PICKING UP ANY FROST EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT IT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT AWAY FROM RIVERS...
CREEKS...AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH A QUIET WEATHER PERIOD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEY ALL FLATTEN OUT A SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE IN
RESPONSE TO A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
INTO NEW ENGLAND. HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION WILL REMAIN SIMILAR DURING
THIS TRANSITION BEFORE TICKING UP IN THE TROUGH/S WAKE ON SUNDAY AS
SOME RIDGING OOZES EAST INTO OUR AREA. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK
ENERGY PASSING OVER EAST KENTUCKY TODAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
TROUGH MOVING BY TO THE NORTH...BUT IT SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH WX
WISE. GIVEN THE MODEL SIMILARITIES HAVE FAVORED THE NAM12 FOR
FORECAST SPECIFICS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER COUPLE DRY AND PLEASANT DAYS
SANDWICHING A QUIET NIGHT. A COLD DRY FRONT WILL BRING MAINLY HIGH
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO EASTERN KENTUCKY LATER TODAY AND EARLY
TONIGHT BEFORE CLEARING LATE. SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE AS WARM AS
TODAY...OR A TAD WARMER...EVEN POST FRONTAL OWING TO A RETURN OF
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.

WITH THE TEMPERATURE...DEWPOINT...AND WIND GRIDS THE CONSSHORT...AND
ITS BC VERSION...WERE USED AS A STARTING POINT THROUGH THE FIRST 18
TO 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE
SOME CHANGES TO BETTER REFLECT THE...AT LEAST MINOR...RIDGE VALLEY
DIFFERENCES ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN TONIGHT.
POPS THOROUGH THE PERIOD WERE KEPT LOW...IN LINE WITH THE VALUES FROM
THE MOS GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH ON A FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF THE FRONT...MAKING
THE CHALLENGE IN THIS FORECAST WHEN WILL PRECIPITATION ARRIVE IN
EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE OTHER CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND THE LATE
WEEK/NEXT WEEKEND PERIOD AS MODELS CONTINUE TO BE ALL OVER THE PLACE
WITH VARIOUS SCENARIOS...ALL INVOLVING A COLDER AIRMASS. THE 00Z
ECMWF CERTAINLY DID NOT MAKE THINGS ANY EASIER AS IT NOW HAS A CUT
OFF LOW OVER TENNESSEE BY WEEKS END. CLEARLY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS NOT GREAT AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.

FORTUNATELY...THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST CAN BE AGREED UPON AS
MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY
NIGHT...SHOULD SHOULD YIELD FAIRLY GOOD RIDGE/VALLEY SPLITS AS
VALLEYS FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 40S WHILE RIDGES STAY A TAD MILDER
WITH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE LOW 50S. REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES
WILL RESPOND QUICKLY ON MONDAY WARMING TO AROUND 80 BY THE
AFTERNOON. MODELS REMAIN FAR TOO AGGRESSIVE ON MOISTURE RETURN AND
HAVE KEPT DEWPOINTS LOWER...CLOSER TO MOS GUIDANCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE FAIRLY MILD CONDITIONS AS WE REMAIN AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ON TUESDAY...GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO
DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE 00Z GFS
REMAINS THE FASTER SOLUTION BRINGING THE FRONT INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. THE ECWMF KEEPS THE FRONT TO OUR WEST THROUGH THIS
TIME. GIVEN THE FASTER POSSIBILITY...HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT IN
OUR WESTERN ZONES...AND BROUGHT SOME LOWER POPS A BIT FARTHER EAST.
IT LOOKS LIKE A SURE BET BY TUESDAY NIGHT...MOST AREAS WILL SEE SOME
RAIN AS THE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA...AND WILL MAINTAIN THE
LIKELY POPS. STILL LOOKS LIKE MEAGER INSTABILITY...SO WILL MAINTAIN
NO THUNDER AS WELL. MODELS ARE NOW AGREEING THAT THE FRONT WILL EXIT
THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...KEEPING EASTERN KENTUCKY DRY. IT LOOKS
LIKE AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY DROP ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AND COULD PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS.
HOWEVER...THIS IS THE POINT WHERE MODELS END UP ALL OVER THE PLACE.
FOR NOW...OPTING TO KEEP FRIDAY NIGHT ONWARD DRY...BUT GIVEN THE
LATEST ECMWF RUN...WE MAY NEED MORE POPS INTO THE WEEKEND AND
BEYOND. IF A WETTER SCENARIO PLAYS OUT...THIS MAY LIMIT FROST/FREEZE
POTENTIAL THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. IF A DRIER
SCENARIO PLAYS OUT...WE COULD SEE SOME PRETTY GOOD FROST COVERAGE
AND PERHAPS A FREEZE IN SOME AREAS. CERTAINLY THOSE WITH
AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS SHOULD CHECK BACK REGARDING NEXT WEEKENDS
FORECAST. FOR NOW...OPTING TO HEDGE ON TEMPERATURES AND NOT GO WITH
EITHER EXTREME AND STAY CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY UNTIL MODELS CAN REACH
BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 715 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

PATCHY FOG HAS FORMED IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS AND ALONG THE RIVERS.
SOME OF THIS CREPT INTO SME BRIEFLY. ANY EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS
WILL CLEAR UP BY 13Z. DURING THE DAY...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
WITH FIRST CIRRUS THEN SOME MID AND LOW CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA.
A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY BY
EVENING...HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. VIRGA OR A COUPLE OF
SPRINKLES WILL BE AN OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY...HOWEVER THIS WOULD NOT
AFFECT FLIGHT OPERATIONS. IN THE MEANTIME...WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF






000
FXUS63 KJKL 250710 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
310 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT IS NOTED TO THE
NORTHWEST. THIS HIGH HAS KEPT THE CLOUDS AT BAY TONIGHT AND LED TO A
GOOD NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. AS SUCH...COMBINED WITH NEARLY
CALM WINDS...A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLIT IS UNDERWAY WITH TEMPS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS TO THE MID 40S ON
THE RIDGES. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS FALLING TOWARD THE
DEWPOINTS WE ARE SEEING PATCHY FOG FORMATION. THIS FOG SHOULD KEEP
MOST OF THE COLD SPOTS FROM PICKING UP ANY FROST EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT IT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT AWAY FROM RIVERS...
CREEKS...AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH A QUIET WEATHER PERIOD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEY ALL FLATTEN OUT A SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE IN
RESPONSE TO A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
INTO NEW ENGLAND. HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION WILL REMAIN SIMILAR DURING
THIS TRANSITION BEFORE TICKING UP IN THE TROUGH/S WAKE ON SUNDAY AS
SOME RIDGING OOZES EAST INTO OUR AREA. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK
ENERGY PASSING OVER EAST KENTUCKY TODAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
TROUGH MOVING BY TO THE NORTH...BUT IT SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH WX
WISE. GIVEN THE MODEL SIMILARITIES HAVE FAVORED THE NAM12 FOR
FORECAST SPECIFICS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER COUPLE DRY AND PLEASANT DAYS
SANDWICHING A QUIET NIGHT. A COLD DRY FRONT WILL BRING MAINLY HIGH
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO EASTERN KENTUCKY LATER TODAY AND EARLY
TONIGHT BEFORE CLEARING LATE. SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE AS WARM AS
TODAY...OR A TAD WARMER...EVEN POST FRONTAL OWING TO A RETURN OF
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.

WITH THE TEMPERATURE...DEWPOINT...AND WIND GRIDS THE CONSSHORT...AND
ITS BC VERSION...WERE USED AS A STARTING POINT THROUGH THE FIRST 18
TO 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE
SOME CHANGES TO BETTER REFLECT THE...AT LEAST MINOR...RIDGE VALLEY
DIFFERENCES ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN TONIGHT.
POPS THOROUGH THE PERIOD WERE KEPT LOW...IN LINE WITH THE VALUES FROM
THE MOS GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH ON A FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF THE FRONT...MAKING
THE CHALLENGE IN THIS FORECAST WHEN WILL PRECIPITATION ARRIVE IN
EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE OTHER CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND THE LATE
WEEK/NEXT WEEKEND PERIOD AS MODELS CONTINUE TO BE ALL OVER THE PLACE
WITH VARIOUS SCENARIOS...ALL INVOLVING A COLDER AIRMASS. THE 00Z
ECMWF CERTAINLY DID NOT MAKE THINGS ANY EASIER AS IT NOW HAS A CUT
OFF LOW OVER TENNESSEE BY WEEKS END. CLEARLY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS NOT GREAT AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.

FORTUNATELY...THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST CAN BE AGREED UPON AS
MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY
NIGHT...SHOULD SHOULD YIELD FAIRLY GOOD RIDGE/VALLEY SPLITS AS
VALLEYS FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 40S WHILE RIDGES STAY A TAD MILDER
WITH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE LOW 50S. REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES
WILL RESPOND QUICKLY ON MONDAY WARMING TO AROUND 80 BY THE
AFTERNOON. MODELS REMAIN FAR TOO AGGRESSIVE ON MOISTURE RETURN AND
HAVE KEPT DEWPOINTS LOWER...CLOSER TO MOS GUIDANCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE FAIRLY MILD CONDITIONS AS WE REMAIN AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ON TUESDAY...GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO
DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE 00Z GFS
REMAINS THE FASTER SOLUTION BRINGING THE FRONT INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. THE ECWMF KEEPS THE FRONT TO OUR WEST THROUGH THIS
TIME. GIVEN THE FASTER POSSIBILITY...HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT IN
OUR WESTERN ZONES...AND BROUGHT SOME LOWER POPS A BIT FARTHER EAST.
IT LOOKS LIKE A SURE BET BY TUESDAY NIGHT...MOST AREAS WILL SEE SOME
RAIN AS THE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA...AND WILL MAINTAIN THE
LIKELY POPS. STILL LOOKS LIKE MEAGER INSTABILITY...SO WILL MAINTAIN
NO THUNDER AS WELL. MODELS ARE NOW AGREEING THAT THE FRONT WILL EXIT
THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...KEEPING EASTERN KENTUCKY DRY. IT LOOKS
LIKE AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY DROP ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AND COULD PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS.
HOWEVER...THIS IS THE POINT WHERE MODELS END UP ALL OVER THE PLACE.
FOR NOW...OPTING TO KEEP FRIDAY NIGHT ONWARD DRY...BUT GIVEN THE
LATEST ECMWF RUN...WE MAY NEED MORE POPS INTO THE WEEKEND AND
BEYOND. IF A WETTER SCENARIO PLAYS OUT...THIS MAY LIMIT FROST/FREEZE
POTENTIAL THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. IF A DRIER
SCENARIO PLAYS OUT...WE COULD SEE SOME PRETTY GOOD FROST COVERAGE
AND PERHAPS A FREEZE IN SOME AREAS. CERTAINLY THOSE WITH
AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS SHOULD CHECK BACK REGARDING NEXT WEEKENDS
FORECAST. FOR NOW...OPTING TO HEDGE ON TEMPERATURES AND NOT GO WITH
EITHER EXTREME AND STAY CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY UNTIL MODELS CAN REACH
BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

CLEAR SKIES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. PATCHY VALLEY FOG HAS FORMED IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS
AND LONG THE RIVERS. SOME OF THIS HAS CREPT INTO SME
BRIEFLY...HOWEVER AM NOT EXPECTING TO SEE MUCH AT THE OTHER TAF SITES
WHERE THE T-TD SPREAD IS GREATER. DURING THE DAY...TOMORROW...CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH FIRST CIRRUS THEN SOME MID CLOUDS MOVING
INTO THE AREA. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH EAST
KENTUCKY BY EVENING...HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. VIRGA OR
A COUPLE OF SPRINKLES WILL BE AN OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY...HOWEVER THIS
WOULD NOT AFFECT FLIGHT OPERATIONS. IN THE MEANTIME...WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF






000
FXUS63 KJKL 250545 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
145 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

DID A MINOR UPDATE MAINLY TO FINE TUNE LOW TEMPERATURES...AND THE
CURRENT RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLIT...OVERNIGHT. ALSO MATCHED UP THE
T/TD/SKY GRIDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT BASED ON THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING A BIT AHEAD OF THE
FORECAST AND CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT DID ALSO BEEF
UP THE VALLEY FOG AND ADDED A TOUCH OF FROST TO THE DEEPEST SPOTS
TOWARD DAWN IN THE WX GRIDS. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO
THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 900 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

BASICALLY A TEMP FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SKIES ARE CLEARING OUT BEHIND AN
EXITING MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH IS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN
TEMPORARILY OVERNIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AND WEAK SFC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
SATURDAY AND THIS SYSTEM MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW
SPRINKLES THOUGH WENT TOTALLY DRY IN THE ZONES AND GRIDS FOR NOW.
FROM THERE OUR WEATHER REMAINS DRY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECTING
SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IN OUR RIVER VALLEYS. INHERITED
SOME EXCELLENT TEMPERATURE GRIDS. NUDGING TO A BLEND OF MODEL
GUIDANCE PROVIDED VERY MINOR CHANGES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL BE THE WEATHER STORY AS WE MOVE INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. A FEW RECORD HIGHS COULD BE IN JEOPARDY
EARLY IN THE WEEK. FOR REFERENCE...RECORD HIGHS FOR 10/27 ARE 83 AT
JACKSON AND 81 AT LONDON. RECORD HIGHS FOR 10/28 ARE 78 AT JACKSON
AND 84 AT LONDON. HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE LATE IN THE WEEKEND
AND INTO MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE
ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE INTO THE WESTERN LAKES BY TUESDAY. A
SHEARED COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS KY
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO.
INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY LIMITED AND WILL FOLLOW PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING AND LEAVE THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT CONTINUE WITH THE FAIRLY HIGH SHOWER CHANCES TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS FIRST COLD FRONT FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE
APPROACH OF A SECOND UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND
COLD FRONT FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO
BRING RAIN CHANCES FOR LATE NEXT WEEK AND THEN INTRODUCE THE COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH THE 12Z GFS NOW COMING
INTO LINE WITH THE 00Z ECMWF ON THIS IDEA. IT IS VERY POSSIBLE WE
COULD EXPERIENCE A KILLING FREEZE NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH IS JUST
BEYOND THE TIME FRAME OF THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

CLEAR SKIES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. PATCHY VALLEY FOG HAS FORMED IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS
AND LONG THE RIVERS. SOME OF THIS HAS CREPT INTO SME
BRIEFLY...HOWEVER AM NOT EXPECTING TO SEE MUCH AT THE OTHER TAF SITES
WHERE THE T-TD SPREAD IS GREATER. DURING THE DAY...TOMORROW...CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH FIRST CIRRUS THEN SOME MID CLOUDS MOVING
INTO THE AREA. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH EAST
KENTUCKY BY EVENING...HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. VIRGA OR
A COUPLE OF SPRINKLES WILL BE AN OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY...HOWEVER THIS
WOULD NOT AFFECT FLIGHT OPERATIONS. IN THE MEANTIME...WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...GREIF






000
FXUS63 KJKL 250100
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
900 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

BASICALLY A TEMP FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SKIES ARE CLEARING OUT BEHIND AN
EXITING MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH IS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN
TEMPORARILY OVERNIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AND WEAK SFC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
SATURDAY AND THIS SYSTEM MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW
SPRINKLES THOUGH WENT TOTALLY DRY IN THE ZONES AND GRIDS FOR NOW.
FROM THERE OUR WEATHER REMAINS DRY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECTING
SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IN OUR RIVER VALLEYS. INHERITED
SOME EXCELLENT TEMPERATURE GRIDS. NUDGING TO A BLEND OF MODEL
GUIDANCE PROVIDED VERY MINOR CHANGES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL BE THE WEATHER STORY AS WE MOVE INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. A FEW RECORD HIGHS COULD BE IN JEOPARDY
EARLY IN THE WEEK. FOR REFERENCE...RECORD HIGHS FOR 10/27 ARE 83 AT
JACKSON AND 81 AT LONDON. RECORD HIGHS FOR 10/28 ARE 78 AT JACKSON
AND 84 AT LONDON. HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE LATE IN THE WEEKEND
AND INTO MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE
ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE INTO THE WESTERN LAKES BY TUESDAY. A
SHEARED COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS KY
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO.
INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY LIMITED AND WILL FOLLOW PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING AND LEAVE THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT CONTINUE WITH THE FAIRLY HIGH SHOWER CHANCES TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS FIRST COLD FRONT FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE
APPROACH OF A SECOND UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND
COLD FRONT FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO
BRING RAIN CHANCES FOR LATE NEXT WEEK AND THEN INTRODUCE THE COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH THE 12Z GFS NOW COMING
INTO LINE WITH THE 00Z ECMWF ON THIS IDEA. IT IS VERY POSSIBLE WE
COULD EXPERIENCE A KILLING FREEZE NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH IS JUST
BEYOND THE TIME FRAME OF THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

CLEAR SKIES ARE THE RULE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT. EXPECTING
SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG TO FORM TONIGHT DOWN IN THE VALLEYS...HOWEVER
NOT EXPECTING TO SEE ANYTHING AT THE TAF STATIONS. TOMORROW DURING
THE DAY...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH CIRRUS THEN SOME MID
CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA...HOWEVER VFR SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE COAL FIELDS.
SOME VIRGA OR SPRINKLES IS AN OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY...HOWEVER SHOULD
NOT EFFECT FLIGHT OPERATIONS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...JJ








000
FXUS63 KJKL 242336
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
736 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

BASICALLY A TEMP FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SKIES ARE CLEARING OUT BEHIND AN
EXITING MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH IS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN
TEMPORARILY OVERNIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AND WEAK SFC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
SATURDAY AND THIS SYSTEM MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW
SPRINKLES THOUGH WENT TOTALLY DRY IN THE ZONES AND GRIDS FOR NOW.
FROM THERE OUR WEATHER REMAINS DRY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECTING
SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IN OUR RIVER VALLEYS. INHERITED
SOME EXCELLENT TEMPERATURE GRIDS. NUDGING TO A BLEND OF MODEL
GUIDANCE PROVIDED VERY MINOR CHANGES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL BE THE WEATHER STORY AS WE MOVE INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. A FEW RECORD HIGHS COULD BE IN JEOPARDY
EARLY IN THE WEEK. FOR REFERENCE...RECORD HIGHS FOR 10/27 ARE 83 AT
JACKSON AND 81 AT LONDON. RECORD HIGHS FOR 10/28 ARE 78 AT JACKSON
AND 84 AT LONDON. HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE LATE IN THE WEEKEND
AND INTO MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE
ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE INTO THE WESTERN LAKES BY TUESDAY. A
SHEARED COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS KY
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO.
INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY LIMITED AND WILL FOLLOW PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING AND LEAVE THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT CONTINUE WITH THE FAIRLY HIGH SHOWER CHANCES TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS FIRST COLD FRONT FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE
APPROACH OF A SECOND UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND
COLD FRONT FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO
BRING RAIN CHANCES FOR LATE NEXT WEEK AND THEN INTRODUCE THE COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH THE 12Z GFS NOW COMING
INTO LINE WITH THE 00Z ECMWF ON THIS IDEA. IT IS VERY POSSIBLE WE
COULD EXPERIENCE A KILLING FREEZE NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH IS JUST
BEYOND THE TIME FRAME OF THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

CLEAR SKIES ARE THE RULE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT. EXPECTING
SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG TO FORM TONIGHT DOWN IN THE VALLEYS...HOWEVER
NOT EXPECTING TO SEE ANYTHING AT THE TAF STATIONS. TOMORROW DURING
THE DAY...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH CIRRUS THEN SOME MID
CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA...HOWEVER VFR SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE COAL FIELDS.
SOME VIRGA OR SPRINKLES IS AN OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY...HOWEVER SHOULD
NOT EFFECT FLIGHT OPERATIONS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...JJ








000
FXUS63 KJKL 242025 CCA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
319 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

BASICALLY A TEMP FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SKIES ARE CLEARING OUT BEHIND AN
EXITING MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH IS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN
TEMPORARILY OVERNIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AND WEAK SFC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
SATURDAY AND THIS SYSTEM MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW
SPRINKLES THOUGH WENT TOTALLY DRY IN THE ZONES AND GRIDS FOR NOW.
FROM THERE OUR WEATHER REMAINS DRY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECTING
SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IN OUR RIVER VALLEYS. INHERITED
SOME EXCELLENT TEMPERATURE GRIDS. NUDGING TO A BLEND OF MODEL
GUIDANCE PROVIDED VERY MINOR CHANGES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL BE THE WEATHER STORY AS WE MOVE INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. A FEW RECORD HIGHS COULD BE IN JEOPARDY
EARLY IN THE WEEK. FOR REFERENCE...RECORD HIGHS FOR 10/27 ARE 83 AT
JACKSON AND 81 AT LONDON. RECORD HIGHS FOR 10/28 ARE 78 AT JACKSON
AND 84 AT LONDON. HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE LATE IN THE WEEKEND
AND INTO MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE
ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE INTO THE WESTERN LAKES BY TUESDAY. A
SHEARED COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS KY
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO.
INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY LIMITED AND WILL FOLLOW PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING AND LEAVE THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT CONTINUE WITH THE FAIRLY HIGH SHOWER CHANCES TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS FIRST COLD FRONT FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE
APPROACH OF A SECOND UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND
COLD FRONT FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO
BRING RAIN CHANCES FOR LATE NEXT WEEK AND THEN INTRODUCE THE COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH THE 12Z GFS NOW COMING
INTO LINE WITH THE 00Z ECMWF ON THIS IDEA. IT IS VERY POSSIBLE WE
COULD EXPERIENCE A KILLING FREEZE NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH IS JUST
BEYOND THE TIME FRAME OF THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

DISTURBANCE IS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. LITTLE IF ANY WEATHER
HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAK SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN
SOME DECENT VIRGA BEING PRODUCED WITHIN SEVERAL BANDS OF ACCAS THAT
ARE ROTATING ACROSS THE AREA. WEATHER GENERALLY LOOKS QUIET THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. GUIDANCE ALL CAME IN QUITE OPTIMISTIC WITH
RESPECT FOR FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. OVERALL EXPECT ANY FOG TO BE
RESTRICTED TO THE RIVER VALLEYS...SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING AT OUR TERMINALS THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD
SEE SOME TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS FOR AN HOUR OR SO RIGHT AT
DAWN...AGAIN SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH A
SOUTHWEST TENDENCY BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE ON
THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS A BOUNDARY DROPS THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY. MODELS ARE UNCERTAIN BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
THERE WERE A FEW SPRINKLES AROUND FOR GOOD MEASURE. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 8KTS AND BECOME WESTERLY JUST BEYOND THE END OF
THE FORECAST WINDOW.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...RAY











000
FXUS63 KJKL 241919
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
319 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

BASICALLY A TEMP FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SKIES ARE CLEARING OUT BEHIND AN
EXITING MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH IS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN
TEMPORARILY OVERNIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AND WEAK SFC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
SATURDAY AND THIS SYSTEM MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW
SPRINKLES THOUGH WET TOTALLY DRY IN THE ZONES AND GRIDS FOR NOW.
FROM THERE OUR WEATHER REMAINS DRY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECTING
SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IN OUR RIVER VALLEYS. INHERITED
SOME EXCELLENT TEMPERATURE GRIDS. NUDGING TO A BLEND OF MODEL
GUIDANCE PROVIDED VERY MINOR CHANGES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL BE THE WEATHER STORY AS WE MOVE INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. A FEW RECORD HIGHS COULD BE IN JEOPARDY
EARLY IN THE WEEK. FOR REFERENCE...RECORD HIGHS FOR 10/27 ARE 83 AT
JACKSON AND 81 AT LONDON. RECORD HIGHS FOR 10/28 ARE 78 AT JACKSON
AND 84 AT LONDON. HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE LATE IN THE WEEKEND
AND INTO MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE
ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE INTO THE WESTERN LAKES BY TUESDAY. A
SHEARED COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS KY
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO.
INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY LIMITED AND WILL FOLLOW PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING AND LEAVE THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT CONTINUE WITH THE FAIRLY HIGH SHOWER CHANCES TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS FIRST COLD FRONT FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE
APPROACH OF A SECOND UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND
COLD FRONT FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO
BRING RAIN CHANCES FOR LATE NEXT WEEK AND THEN INTRODUCE THE COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH THE 12Z GFS NOW COMING
INTO LINE WITH THE 00Z ECMWF ON THIS IDEA. IT IS VERY POSSIBLE WE
COULD EXPERIENCE A KILLING FREEZE NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH IS JUST
BEYOND THE TIME FRAME OF THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

DISTURBANCE IS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. LITTLE IF ANY WEATHER
HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAK SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN
SOME DECENT VIRGA BEING PRODUCED WITHIN SEVERAL BANDS OF ACCAS THAT
ARE ROTATING ACROSS THE AREA. WEATHER GENERALLY LOOKS QUIET THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. GUIDANCE ALL CAME IN QUITE OPTIMISTIC WITH
RESPECT FOR FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. OVERALL EXPECT ANY FOG TO BE
RESTRICTED TO THE RIVER VALLEYS...SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING AT OUR TERMINALS THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD
SEE SOME TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS FOR AN HOUR OR SO RIGHT AT
DAWN...AGAIN SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH A
SOUTHWEST TENDENCY BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE ON
THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS A BOUNDARY DROPS THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY. MODELS ARE UNCERTAIN BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
THERE WERE A FEW SPRINKLES AROUND FOR GOOD MEASURE. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 8KTS AND BECOME WESTERLY JUST BEYOND THE END OF
THE FORECAST WINDOW.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...RAY








000
FXUS63 KJKL 241810
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
210 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

DISTURBANCE IS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. LITTLE IF ANY WEATHER
HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAK SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN
SOME DECENT VIRGA BEING PRODUCED WITHIN SEVERAL BANDS OF ACCAS THAT
ARE ROTATING ACROSS THE AREA. WOULD NOT BE SURPRIZED IF THERE WERE A
FEW DROPS OR SPRINKLES REACHING THE GROUND IN SPOTS. HOWEVER...
COVERAGE OR THREAT OF SPRINKLES IS NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO MENTION
IN THE UPDATE. TEMPS ARE RUNNING BEHIND EXPECTED LEVELS IN THE EAST
WHERE CLOUD COVER HAS LINERGED A BIT LONGER TODAY. TWEAKED AFTERNOON
HIGHS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO...MAINLY IN THE EAST. OTHERWISE NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1035 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. APPEARS FOG HAS LIFTED AND/OR
DISSIPATED AT MOST LOCATIONS. MID LEVEL DECK AROUND 14-15K FT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH OFF TO THE EAST. MID...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION BUT THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. MODELS SUGGEST UPSTREAM BAND OF
LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS THAT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE MID OHIO VALLEY
TODAY WILL BREAK UP AS IT MOVES THROUGH. BUT THERE IS ENOUGH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE TO KEEP AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE FORECAST FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. UPDATED HOURLY TEMPS AND TWEAKED SKY COVER JUST A
BIT FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE
THIS MORNING. ZONES WERE UPDATED TO REMOVE MORNING FOG.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO REFLECT THE CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. ALSO
TOUCHED UP THE SKY COVER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THESE HAVE BEEN
SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY. EVEN SO...A FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE PASSING OVERHEAD
THIS NIGHT AS A CONSEQUENCE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE
OHIO VALLEY WITH A HEALTHY POOL OF ENERGY. THESE CLOUDS RUINED...FOR
MANY IN EASTERN KENTUCKY...A SHOT AT SEEING THE PARTIAL SOLAR
ECLIPSE EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. NOW THEY ARE HELPING TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT...LIKELY LEADING TO ONLY
PATCHY FOG FOR THE VALLEYS...THOUGH LOCALLY DENSE POCKETS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE FAR EAST TOWARDS DAWN. IN ADDITION...A FEW SPECKS OF
LIGHT FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN SOME OF THE COLDER VALLEYS
LOCATIONS...AWAY FROM CREEKS...LAKES...AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER NEAR
DAWN. CURRENTLY A MODERATE RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT EXITS
- RUNNING FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE DEEPER EASTERN VALLEYS TO THE
MIDDLE 40S ON THE RIDGES WHILE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST. THE ALL TAKE A SMALL...BUT SHARP...TROUGH THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY AND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATER TODAY. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY THE STRONG BIG BEND RIDGE SPREADING EAST WHILE A
TROUGH AND ITS ENERGY PASS QUICKLY BY TO THE NORTH INTO THE START OF
THE WEEKEND. HEIGHTS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL RISE THROUGHOUT THE
PROCESS PROTECTING THE AREA FROM ANY NORTHERN INTRUSIONS OF COLDER
AIR AND ANY PCPN THREAT. GIVEN THE OVERALL MODEL SAMENESS HAVE
FOLLOWED THE LATEST HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 MODEL MOST CLOSELY FOR
THE SHORT TERM...MAINLY TEMPERATURE/CLOUD...FORECAST.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
WARMING TEMPS TODAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL TIMES OF
CLOUDS AND CLEARING...DICTATED BY THE FAST FLOW ALOFT...TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH NO REAL THREAT OF PCPN ON THE DOCKET WE CAN
FOCUS THE FORECAST ON THE PLEASANTLY MILD TEMPERATURES...FOR MID
OCTOBER...ON TAP THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALSO EXPECT READINGS TO STAY
OUT OF THE FROST ZONE TONIGHT WITH LITTLE CONCERN FOR ANY MORE THAN
SOME LOCALIZED FOG PATCHES IN THE VALLEYS TOWARD DAWN SATURDAY. ALL
IN ALL...A PLEASANT END TO THE WEEK...WITH TIMES OF LIMITED SUNSHINE
THE ONLY POTENTIAL DRAWBACK.

FOR TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS FOLLOWED THE LATEST
CONSSHORT...AND ITS BC VERSION...THROUGH THE FIRST 18 TO 24 HOURS OF
THE FORECAST AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME CHANGES TO
BETTER REFLECT THE RIDGE VALLEY DIFFERENCES ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT. POPS THOROUGH THE PERIOD WERE KEPT LOW...IN LINE WITH THE
MINUSCULE VALUES FROM THE MOS GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VERY MILD/PERHAPS NEAR RECORD WARMTH WILL BE THE MAIN STORY THROUGH
THE EXTENDED FOR THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE SECONDARY FOCUS
WILL BE AROUND A COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS IT DROPS
THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE DIFFERENCES BECOME
TOUGHER TO RESOLVE. THUS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS DECENT UP TO THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH LESS CONFIDENCE POST FRONTAL.

TO START THE PERIOD...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS STRONG RIDGING SPREADS ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. SOME PESKY CLOUDS COULD LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE
WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON SATURDAY. THIS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES
A BIT MILDER. CLOUDS SHOULD QUICKLY ERODE ON SUNDAY AS SUBSIDENCE
TAKES OVER...ALLOWING A MILD DAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK ABOVE
NORMAL WITH READINGS INTO THE LOWER 70S. WITH THE RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY...THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH
HIGHS EASILY INTO THE UPPER 70S...AND LIKELY SEEING SOME LOWER 80S
IN PLACES. WITH RECORDS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...WE COULD THREATEN
THE RECORDS. SAME COULD BE SAID ABOUT TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE GRADIENT SHOULD TIGHTEN UP AHEAD OF
THE FRONT CONTINUING THE WARMTH. WITH RECORDS SLIGHTLY LOWER ON
TUESDAY...THEY COULD BE MORE IN JEOPARDY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A THE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE MODEL CONSISTENCY AND
AGREEMENT...HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS.
INSTABILITY LOOKS WAY TO WEAK TO SUPPORT ANY THUNDER...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SLOW DOWN THE FRONT
AND STALL IT JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST BY MID WEEK. GFS KEEPS IT A BIT
FARTHER NORTHWEST...WHICH MAY KEEP THE THREAT OF RAIN ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. HOWEVER...ECMWF KEEPS
THINGS DRY FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ONWARD. OPTING TO KEEP SOME LOW
POPS IN THE FORECAST AS IT MAY NOT BE IMPOSSIBLE TO SEE A WAVE PUSH
NORTH...ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY BRINGING SOME RAIN
SHOWERS BACK INTO SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. BY LATE IN THE WEEK...WE
SHOULD FINALLY SEE AN END TO THE RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

DISTURBANCE IS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. LITTLE IF ANY WEATHER
HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAK SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN
SOME DECENT VIRGA BEING PRODUCED WITHIN SEVERAL BANDS OF ACCAS THAT
ARE ROTATING ACROSS THE AREA. WEATHER GENERALLY LOOKS QUIET THROUGH
THE FOREACAST PERIOD. GUIDANCE ALL CAME IN QUITE OPTIMISTIC WITH
RESPECT FOR FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. OVERALL EXPECT ANY FOG TO BE
RESTRICTED TO THE RIVER VALLEYS...SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING AT OUR TERMINALS THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD
SEE SOME TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS FOR AN HOUR OR SO RIGHT AT
DAWN...AGAIN SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH A
SOUTHWEST TENDENCY BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE ON
THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS A BOUNDARY DROPS THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY. MODELS ARE UNCERTAIN BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRIZED IF
THERE WERE A FEW SPRINKLES AROUND FOR GOOD MEASURE. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 8KTS AND BECOME WESTERLY JUST BEYOND THE END OF
THE FORECAST WINDOW.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...RAY








000
FXUS63 KJKL 241435
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1035 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1035 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. APPEARS FOG HAS LIFTED AND/OR
DISSIPATED AT MOST LOCATIONS. MID LEVEL DECK AROUND 14-15K FT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH OFF TO THE EAST. MID...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION BUT THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. MODELS SUGGEST UPSTREAM BAND OF
LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS THAT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE MID OHIO VALLEY
TODAY WILL BREAK UP AS IT MOVES THROUGH. BUT THERE IS ENOUGH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE TO KEEP AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE FORECAST FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. UPDATED HOURLY TEMPS AND TWEAKED SKY COVER JUST A
BIT FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE
THIS MORNING. ZONES WERE UPDATED TO REMOVE MORNING FOG.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO REFLECT THE CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. ALSO
TOUCHED UP THE SKY COVER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THESE HAVE BEEN
SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY. EVEN SO...A FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE PASSING OVERHEAD
THIS NIGHT AS A CONSEQUENCE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE
OHIO VALLEY WITH A HEALTHY POOL OF ENERGY. THESE CLOUDS RUINED...FOR
MANY IN EASTERN KENTUCKY...A SHOT AT SEEING THE PARTIAL SOLAR
ECLIPSE EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. NOW THEY ARE HELPING TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT...LIKELY LEADING TO ONLY
PATCHY FOG FOR THE VALLEYS...THOUGH LOCALLY DENSE POCKETS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE FAR EAST TOWARDS DAWN. IN ADDITION...A FEW SPECKS OF
LIGHT FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN SOME OF THE COLDER VALLEYS
LOCATIONS...AWAY FROM CREEKS...LAKES...AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER NEAR
DAWN. CURRENTLY A MODERATE RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT EXITS
- RUNNING FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE DEEPER EASTERN VALLEYS TO THE
MIDDLE 40S ON THE RIDGES WHILE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST. THE ALL TAKE A SMALL...BUT SHARP...TROUGH THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY AND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATER TODAY. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY THE STRONG BIG BEND RIDGE SPREADING EAST WHILE A
TROUGH AND ITS ENERGY PASS QUICKLY BY TO THE NORTH INTO THE START OF
THE WEEKEND. HEIGHTS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL RISE THROUGHOUT THE
PROCESS PROTECTING THE AREA FROM ANY NORTHERN INTRUSIONS OF COLDER
AIR AND ANY PCPN THREAT. GIVEN THE OVERALL MODEL SAMENESS HAVE
FOLLOWED THE LATEST HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 MODEL MOST CLOSELY FOR
THE SHORT TERM...MAINLY TEMPERATURE/CLOUD...FORECAST.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
WARMING TEMPS TODAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL TIMES OF
CLOUDS AND CLEARING...DICTATED BY THE FAST FLOW ALOFT...TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH NO REAL THREAT OF PCPN ON THE DOCKET WE CAN
FOCUS THE FORECAST ON THE PLEASANTLY MILD TEMPERATURES...FOR MID
OCTOBER...ON TAP THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALSO EXPECT READINGS TO STAY
OUT OF THE FROST ZONE TONIGHT WITH LITTLE CONCERN FOR ANY MORE THAN
SOME LOCALIZED FOG PATCHES IN THE VALLEYS TOWARD DAWN SATURDAY. ALL
IN ALL...A PLEASANT END TO THE WEEK...WITH TIMES OF LIMITED SUNSHINE
THE ONLY POTENTIAL DRAWBACK.

FOR TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS FOLLOWED THE LATEST
CONSSHORT...AND ITS BC VERSION...THROUGH THE FIRST 18 TO 24 HOURS OF
THE FORECAST AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME CHANGES TO
BETTER REFLECT THE RIDGE VALLEY DIFFERENCES ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT. POPS THOROUGH THE PERIOD WERE KEPT LOW...IN LINE WITH THE
MINUSCULE VALUES FROM THE MOS GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VERY MILD/PERHAPS NEAR RECORD WARMTH WILL BE THE MAIN STORY THROUGH
THE EXTENDED FOR THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE SECONDARY FOCUS
WILL BE AROUND A COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS IT DROPS
THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE DIFFERENCES BECOME
TOUGHER TO RESOLVE. THUS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS DECENT UP TO THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH LESS CONFIDENCE POST FRONTAL.

TO START THE PERIOD...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS STRONG RIDGING SPREADS ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. SOME PESKY CLOUDS COULD LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE
WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON SATURDAY. THIS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES
A BIT MILDER. CLOUDS SHOULD QUICKLY ERODE ON SUNDAY AS SUBSIDENCE
TAKES OVER...ALLOWING A MILD DAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK ABOVE
NORMAL WITH READINGS INTO THE LOWER 70S. WITH THE RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY...THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH
HIGHS EASILY INTO THE UPPER 70S...AND LIKELY SEEING SOME LOWER 80S
IN PLACES. WITH RECORDS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...WE COULD THREATEN
THE RECORDS. SAME COULD BE SAID ABOUT TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE GRADIENT SHOULD TIGHTEN UP AHEAD OF
THE FRONT CONTINUING THE WARMTH. WITH RECORDS SLIGHTLY LOWER ON
TUESDAY...THEY COULD BE MORE IN JEOPARDY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A THE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE MODEL CONSISTENCY AND
AGREEMENT...HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS.
INSTABILITY LOOKS WAY TO WEAK TO SUPPORT ANY THUNDER...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SLOW DOWN THE FRONT
AND STALL IT JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST BY MID WEEK. GFS KEEPS IT A BIT
FARTHER NORTHWEST...WHICH MAY KEEP THE THREAT OF RAIN ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. HOWEVER...ECMWF KEEPS
THINGS DRY FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ONWARD. OPTING TO KEEP SOME LOW
POPS IN THE FORECAST AS IT MAY NOT BE IMPOSSIBLE TO SEE A WAVE PUSH
NORTH...ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY BRINGING SOME RAIN
SHOWERS BACK INTO SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. BY LATE IN THE WEEK...WE
SHOULD FINALLY SEE AN END TO THE RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THE MVFR FOG AT SJS AND ELSEWHERE WILL BURN OFF BETWEEN 12 AND
13Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THEREAFTER. EXPECT FOG TO BE
EVEN LESS OF AN ISSUE TONIGHT AFTER ANOTHER DAY OF DRYING. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF









000
FXUS63 KJKL 241435
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1035 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1035 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. APPEARS FOG HAS LIFTED AND/OR
DISSIPATED AT MOST LOCATIONS. MID LEVEL DECK AROUND 14-15K FT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH OFF TO THE EAST. MID...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION BUT THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. MODELS SUGGEST UPSTREAM BAND OF
LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS THAT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE MID OHIO VALLEY
TODAY WILL BREAK UP AS IT MOVES THROUGH. BUT THERE IS ENOUGH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE TO KEEP AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE FORECAST FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. UPDATED HOURLY TEMPS AND TWEAKED SKY COVER JUST A
BIT FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE
THIS MORNING. ZONES WERE UPDATED TO REMOVE MORNING FOG.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO REFLECT THE CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. ALSO
TOUCHED UP THE SKY COVER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THESE HAVE BEEN
SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY. EVEN SO...A FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE PASSING OVERHEAD
THIS NIGHT AS A CONSEQUENCE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE
OHIO VALLEY WITH A HEALTHY POOL OF ENERGY. THESE CLOUDS RUINED...FOR
MANY IN EASTERN KENTUCKY...A SHOT AT SEEING THE PARTIAL SOLAR
ECLIPSE EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. NOW THEY ARE HELPING TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT...LIKELY LEADING TO ONLY
PATCHY FOG FOR THE VALLEYS...THOUGH LOCALLY DENSE POCKETS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE FAR EAST TOWARDS DAWN. IN ADDITION...A FEW SPECKS OF
LIGHT FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN SOME OF THE COLDER VALLEYS
LOCATIONS...AWAY FROM CREEKS...LAKES...AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER NEAR
DAWN. CURRENTLY A MODERATE RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT EXITS
- RUNNING FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE DEEPER EASTERN VALLEYS TO THE
MIDDLE 40S ON THE RIDGES WHILE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST. THE ALL TAKE A SMALL...BUT SHARP...TROUGH THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY AND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATER TODAY. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY THE STRONG BIG BEND RIDGE SPREADING EAST WHILE A
TROUGH AND ITS ENERGY PASS QUICKLY BY TO THE NORTH INTO THE START OF
THE WEEKEND. HEIGHTS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL RISE THROUGHOUT THE
PROCESS PROTECTING THE AREA FROM ANY NORTHERN INTRUSIONS OF COLDER
AIR AND ANY PCPN THREAT. GIVEN THE OVERALL MODEL SAMENESS HAVE
FOLLOWED THE LATEST HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 MODEL MOST CLOSELY FOR
THE SHORT TERM...MAINLY TEMPERATURE/CLOUD...FORECAST.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
WARMING TEMPS TODAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL TIMES OF
CLOUDS AND CLEARING...DICTATED BY THE FAST FLOW ALOFT...TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH NO REAL THREAT OF PCPN ON THE DOCKET WE CAN
FOCUS THE FORECAST ON THE PLEASANTLY MILD TEMPERATURES...FOR MID
OCTOBER...ON TAP THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALSO EXPECT READINGS TO STAY
OUT OF THE FROST ZONE TONIGHT WITH LITTLE CONCERN FOR ANY MORE THAN
SOME LOCALIZED FOG PATCHES IN THE VALLEYS TOWARD DAWN SATURDAY. ALL
IN ALL...A PLEASANT END TO THE WEEK...WITH TIMES OF LIMITED SUNSHINE
THE ONLY POTENTIAL DRAWBACK.

FOR TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS FOLLOWED THE LATEST
CONSSHORT...AND ITS BC VERSION...THROUGH THE FIRST 18 TO 24 HOURS OF
THE FORECAST AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME CHANGES TO
BETTER REFLECT THE RIDGE VALLEY DIFFERENCES ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT. POPS THOROUGH THE PERIOD WERE KEPT LOW...IN LINE WITH THE
MINUSCULE VALUES FROM THE MOS GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VERY MILD/PERHAPS NEAR RECORD WARMTH WILL BE THE MAIN STORY THROUGH
THE EXTENDED FOR THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE SECONDARY FOCUS
WILL BE AROUND A COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS IT DROPS
THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE DIFFERENCES BECOME
TOUGHER TO RESOLVE. THUS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS DECENT UP TO THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH LESS CONFIDENCE POST FRONTAL.

TO START THE PERIOD...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS STRONG RIDGING SPREADS ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. SOME PESKY CLOUDS COULD LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE
WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON SATURDAY. THIS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES
A BIT MILDER. CLOUDS SHOULD QUICKLY ERODE ON SUNDAY AS SUBSIDENCE
TAKES OVER...ALLOWING A MILD DAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK ABOVE
NORMAL WITH READINGS INTO THE LOWER 70S. WITH THE RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY...THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH
HIGHS EASILY INTO THE UPPER 70S...AND LIKELY SEEING SOME LOWER 80S
IN PLACES. WITH RECORDS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...WE COULD THREATEN
THE RECORDS. SAME COULD BE SAID ABOUT TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE GRADIENT SHOULD TIGHTEN UP AHEAD OF
THE FRONT CONTINUING THE WARMTH. WITH RECORDS SLIGHTLY LOWER ON
TUESDAY...THEY COULD BE MORE IN JEOPARDY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A THE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE MODEL CONSISTENCY AND
AGREEMENT...HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS.
INSTABILITY LOOKS WAY TO WEAK TO SUPPORT ANY THUNDER...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SLOW DOWN THE FRONT
AND STALL IT JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST BY MID WEEK. GFS KEEPS IT A BIT
FARTHER NORTHWEST...WHICH MAY KEEP THE THREAT OF RAIN ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. HOWEVER...ECMWF KEEPS
THINGS DRY FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ONWARD. OPTING TO KEEP SOME LOW
POPS IN THE FORECAST AS IT MAY NOT BE IMPOSSIBLE TO SEE A WAVE PUSH
NORTH...ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY BRINGING SOME RAIN
SHOWERS BACK INTO SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. BY LATE IN THE WEEK...WE
SHOULD FINALLY SEE AN END TO THE RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THE MVFR FOG AT SJS AND ELSEWHERE WILL BURN OFF BETWEEN 12 AND
13Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THEREAFTER. EXPECT FOG TO BE
EVEN LESS OF AN ISSUE TONIGHT AFTER ANOTHER DAY OF DRYING. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF









000
FXUS63 KJKL 241155 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
755 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO REFLECT THE CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. ALSO
TOUCHED UP THE SKY COVER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THESE HAVE BEEN
SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY. EVEN SO...A FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE PASSING OVERHEAD
THIS NIGHT AS A CONSEQUENCE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE
OHIO VALLEY WITH A HEALTHY POOL OF ENERGY. THESE CLOUDS RUINED...FOR
MANY IN EASTERN KENTUCKY...A SHOT AT SEEING THE PARTIAL SOLAR
ECLIPSE EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. NOW THEY ARE HELPING TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT...LIKELY LEADING TO ONLY
PATCHY FOG FOR THE VALLEYS...THOUGH LOCALLY DENSE POCKETS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE FAR EAST TOWARDS DAWN. IN ADDITION...A FEW SPECKS OF
LIGHT FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN SOME OF THE COLDER VALLEYS
LOCATIONS...AWAY FROM CREEKS...LAKES...AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER NEAR
DAWN. CURRENTLY A MODERATE RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT EXITS
- RUNNING FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE DEEPER EASTERN VALLEYS TO THE
MIDDLE 40S ON THE RIDGES WHILE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST. THE ALL TAKE A SMALL...BUT SHARP...TROUGH THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY AND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATER TODAY. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY THE STRONG BIG BEND RIDGE SPREADING EAST WHILE A
TROUGH AND ITS ENERGY PASS QUICKLY BY TO THE NORTH INTO THE START OF
THE WEEKEND. HEIGHTS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL RISE THROUGHOUT THE
PROCESS PROTECTING THE AREA FROM ANY NORTHERN INTRUSIONS OF COLDER
AIR AND ANY PCPN THREAT. GIVEN THE OVERALL MODEL SAMENESS HAVE
FOLLOWED THE LATEST HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 MODEL MOST CLOSELY FOR
THE SHORT TERM...MAINLY TEMPERATURE/CLOUD...FORECAST.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
WARMING TEMPS TODAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL TIMES OF
CLOUDS AND CLEARING...DICTATED BY THE FAST FLOW ALOFT...TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH NO REAL THREAT OF PCPN ON THE DOCKET WE CAN
FOCUS THE FORECAST ON THE PLEASANTLY MILD TEMPERATURES...FOR MID
OCTOBER...ON TAP THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALSO EXPECT READINGS TO STAY
OUT OF THE FROST ZONE TONIGHT WITH LITTLE CONCERN FOR ANY MORE THAN
SOME LOCALIZED FOG PATCHES IN THE VALLEYS TOWARD DAWN SATURDAY. ALL
IN ALL...A PLEASANT END TO THE WEEK...WITH TIMES OF LIMITED SUNSHINE
THE ONLY POTENTIAL DRAWBACK.

FOR TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS FOLLOWED THE LATEST
CONSSHORT...AND ITS BC VERSION...THROUGH THE FIRST 18 TO 24 HOURS OF
THE FORECAST AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME CHANGES TO
BETTER REFLECT THE RIDGE VALLEY DIFFERENCES ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT. POPS THOROUGH THE PERIOD WERE KEPT LOW...IN LINE WITH THE
MINUSCULE VALUES FROM THE MOS GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VERY MILD/PERHAPS NEAR RECORD WARMTH WILL BE THE MAIN STORY THROUGH
THE EXTENDED FOR THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE SECONDARY FOCUS
WILL BE AROUND A COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS IT DROPS
THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE DIFFERENCES BECOME
TOUGHER TO RESOLVE. THUS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS DECENT UP TO THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH LESS CONFIDENCE POST FRONTAL.

TO START THE PERIOD...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS STRONG RIDGING SPREADS ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. SOME PESKY CLOUDS COULD LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE
WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON SATURDAY. THIS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES
A BIT MILDER. CLOUDS SHOULD QUICKLY ERODE ON SUNDAY AS SUBSIDENCE
TAKES OVER...ALLOWING A MILD DAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK ABOVE
NORMAL WITH READINGS INTO THE LOWER 70S. WITH THE RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY...THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH
HIGHS EASILY INTO THE UPPER 70S...AND LIKELY SEEING SOME LOWER 80S
IN PLACES. WITH RECORDS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...WE COULD THREATEN
THE RECORDS. SAME COULD BE SAID ABOUT TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE GRADIENT SHOULD TIGHTEN UP AHEAD OF
THE FRONT CONTINUING THE WARMTH. WITH RECORDS SLIGHTLY LOWER ON
TUESDAY...THEY COULD BE MORE IN JEOPARDY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A THE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE MODEL CONSISTENCY AND
AGREEMENT...HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS.
INSTABILITY LOOKS WAY TO WEAK TO SUPPORT ANY THUNDER...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SLOW DOWN THE FRONT
AND STALL IT JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST BY MID WEEK. GFS KEEPS IT A BIT
FARTHER NORTHWEST...WHICH MAY KEEP THE THREAT OF RAIN ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. HOWEVER...ECMWF KEEPS
THINGS DRY FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ONWARD. OPTING TO KEEP SOME LOW
POPS IN THE FORECAST AS IT MAY NOT BE IMPOSSIBLE TO SEE A WAVE PUSH
NORTH...ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY BRINGING SOME RAIN
SHOWERS BACK INTO SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. BY LATE IN THE WEEK...WE
SHOULD FINALLY SEE AN END TO THE RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THE MVFR FOG AT SJS AND ELSEWHERE WILL BURN OFF BETWEEN 12 AND
13Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THEREAFTER. EXPECT FOG TO BE
EVEN LESS OF AN ISSUE TONIGHT AFTER ANOTHER DAY OF DRYING. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF






000
FXUS63 KJKL 240655 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
255 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY. EVEN SO...A FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE PASSING OVERHEAD
THIS NIGHT AS A CONSEQUENCE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE
OHIO VALLEY WITH A HEALTHY POOL OF ENERGY. THESE CLOUDS RUINED...FOR
MANY IN EASTERN KENTUCKY...A SHOT AT SEEING THE PARTIAL SOLAR
ECLIPSE EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. NOW THEY ARE HELPING TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT...LIKELY LEADING TO ONLY
PATCHY FOG FOR THE VALLEYS...THOUGH LOCALLY DENSE POCKETS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE FAR EAST TOWARDS DAWN. IN ADDITION...A FEW SPECKS OF
LIGHT FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN SOME OF THE COLDER VALLEYS
LOCATIONS...AWAY FROM CREEKS...LAKES...AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER NEAR
DAWN. CURRENTLY A MODERATE RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT EXITS
- RUNNING FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE DEEPER EASTERN VALLEYS TO THE
MIDDLE 40S ON THE RIDGES WHILE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST. THE ALL TAKE A SMALL...BUT SHARP...TROUGH THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY AND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATER TODAY. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY THE STRONG BIG BEND RIDGE SPREADING EAST WHILE A
TROUGH AND ITS ENERGY PASS QUICKLY BY TO THE NORTH INTO THE START OF
THE WEEKEND. HEIGHTS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL RISE THROUGHOUT THE
PROCESS PROTECTING THE AREA FROM ANY NORTHERN INTRUSIONS OF COLDER
AIR AND ANY PCPN THREAT. GIVEN THE OVERALL MODEL SAMENESS HAVE
FOLLOWED THE LATEST HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 MODEL MOST CLOSELY FOR
THE SHORT TERM...MAINLY TEMPERATURE/CLOUD...FORECAST.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
WARMING TEMPS TODAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL TIMES OF
CLOUDS AND CLEARING...DICTATED BY THE FAST FLOW ALOFT...TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH NO REAL THREAT OF PCPN ON THE DOCKET WE CAN
FOCUS THE FORECAST ON THE PLEASANTLY MILD TEMPERATURES...FOR MID
OCTOBER...ON TAP THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALSO EXPECT READINGS TO STAY
OUT OF THE FROST ZONE TONIGHT WITH LITTLE CONCERN FOR ANY MORE THAN
SOME LOCALIZED FOG PATCHES IN THE VALLEYS TOWARD DAWN SATURDAY. ALL
IN ALL...A PLEASANT END TO THE WEEK...WITH TIMES OF LIMITED SUNSHINE
THE ONLY POTENTIAL DRAWBACK.

FOR TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS FOLLOWED THE LATEST
CONSSHORT...AND ITS BC VERSION...THROUGH THE FIRST 18 TO 24 HOURS OF
THE FORECAST AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME CHANGES TO
BETTER REFLECT THE RIDGE VALLEY DIFFERENCES ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT. POPS THOROUGH THE PERIOD WERE KEPT LOW...IN LINE WITH THE
MINUSCULE VALUES FROM THE MOS GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VERY MILD/PERHAPS NEAR RECORD WARMTH WILL BE THE MAIN STORY THROUGH
THE EXTENDED FOR THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE SECONDARY FOCUS
WILL BE AROUND A COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS IT DROPS
THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE DIFFERENCES BECOME
TOUGHER TO RESOLVE. THUS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS DECENT UP TO THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH LESS CONFIDENCE POST FRONTAL.

TO START THE PERIOD...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS STRONG RIDGING SPREADS ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. SOME PESKY CLOUDS COULD LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE
WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON SATURDAY. THIS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES
A BIT MILDER. CLOUDS SHOULD QUICKLY ERODE ON SUNDAY AS SUBSIDENCE
TAKES OVER...ALLOWING A MILD DAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK ABOVE
NORMAL WITH READINGS INTO THE LOWER 70S. WITH THE RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY...THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH
HIGHS EASILY INTO THE UPPER 70S...AND LIKELY SEEING SOME LOWER 80S
IN PLACES. WITH RECORDS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...WE COULD THREATEN
THE RECORDS. SAME COULD BE SAID ABOUT TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE GRADIENT SHOULD TIGHTEN UP AHEAD OF
THE FRONT CONTINUING THE WARMTH. WITH RECORDS SLIGHTLY LOWER ON
TUESDAY...THEY COULD BE MORE IN JEOPARDY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A THE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE MODEL CONSISTENCY AND
AGREEMENT...HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS.
INSTABILITY LOOKS WAY TO WEAK TO SUPPORT ANY THUNDER...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SLOW DOWN THE FRONT
AND STALL IT JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST BY MID WEEK. GFS KEEPS IT A BIT
FARTHER NORTHWEST...WHICH MAY KEEP THE THREAT OF RAIN ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. HOWEVER...ECMWF KEEPS
THINGS DRY FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ONWARD. OPTING TO KEEP SOME LOW
POPS IN THE FORECAST AS IT MAY NOT BE IMPOSSIBLE TO SEE A WAVE PUSH
NORTH...ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY BRINGING SOME RAIN
SHOWERS BACK INTO SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. BY LATE IN THE WEEK...WE
SHOULD FINALLY SEE AN END TO THE RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

ONLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOTED PASSING OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. THESE
SHOULD HELP LIMIT THE FOG DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATER THAN IS TYPICAL
THIS NIGHT. FOG WILL PRIMARILY BE A CONCERN BETWEEN 09 AND 12Z AT SME
AND SJS WHERE TD DEPRESSIONS ARE THE LOWEST. SJS WAS KEPT LOWEST...
IFR...DUE TO ITS LOCATION IN FAR EAST KENTUCKY...WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HAS LINGERED A BIT LONGER OWING TO THE CLOUDS CLEARING OUT
OF THERE LATE ON THURSDAY. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF BETWEEN 12 AND
13Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THEREAFTER. WIND WILL REMAIN
LIGHT...GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY...FRIDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF






000
FXUS63 KJKL 240535 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
135 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE SKY COVER...LOWS...T...TD GRIDS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT REFLECTING CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS.
ALSO...THREW IN A SMIDGEN OF FROST IN THE WX GRIDS RIGHT AROUND 12Z IN
THE DEEPEST VALLEYS...THOUGH BY FAR FOG WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT WX
CONCERN IN THOSE LOCATIONS. THESE UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD
AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1044 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

NOT MUCH TO UPDATE IN TERMS OF THE FORECAST OTHER THAN TWEAKING SOME
TEMPERATURES. GIVEN HOW QUICKLY TEMPS HAVE DROPPED OFF THIS EVENING
HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS A FEW DEGREES TO ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL
COOLING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK TONIGHT. MAINLY FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DIURNAL DROP OFF.
CIRRUS COMING IN FROM THE WEST HAS ALSO HELD TOGETHER A BIT BETTER
OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. AS SUCH...DID INCREASE
THE CLOUD COVER A BIT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL WAIT AND SEE
HOW THIS WILL AFFECT THE LOW TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BEFORE MAKING ANY OTHER ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

PESKY LOW SC DECK IS ONLY JUST NOW BREAKING UP IN THE FAR EAST.
PIKE...MARTIN...AND PORTIONS OF JOHNSON AND FLOYD COUNTIES STILL HAVE
YET TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE. BUT TRANSITING MID AND UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE...AND RIDGE AXIS OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ERODE ANY
LINGERING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE OVERNIGHT LOWS AND FOG POTENTIAL.
MIXING OF DRIER AIR ALOFT HAS NOT BEEN AS STRONG AS MIGHT BE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SFC DEW POINTS HAVE REMAINED SOLIDLY IN THE
MID 30S TO AROUND 40. LOWEST WAS 36...BRIEFLY AT THE QUICKSAND
MESONET. HARLAN HAS BEEN AT 37 FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT
LOWS SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH TROUBLE DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S IN OUR
VALLEY LOCATIONS BUT WITH THE AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE DO
NOT SEE HOW FROST COULD BE MUCH OF A THREAT. FOG SHOULD BE MORE OF AN
ISSUE AS SFC AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY
SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS AR/TX/LA SHOULD SET UP CONDITIONS FAVORABLE
FOR RADIATIVE COOLING. FOG MAY BE DENSE IN SPOTS THROUGH OUR EASTERN
VALLEYS.

OTHERWISE...WEATHER LOOK TRANQUIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MID...UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY BY TOMORROW MORNING. BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH
MORE THAN SOME EXTRA CLOUD COVER WITH THIS DISTURBANCE. INHERITED
TEMPS LOOKED PRETTY GOOD FOR THE SHORT TERM. ONLY TWEAKED TEMPS
TOWARDS LATEST MODEL BLENDS...RESULTING IN VERY MINOR CHANGES
OVERALL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION WITH RIDGING NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND MUCH OF THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY REGION. AT THAT POINT A
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEASTERN COAST WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WORKING INTO NORTHERN
ONTARIO WITH A SHORTWAVE TO ITS SOUTH APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES.
AT THE SFC...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE TRACKING ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH INTO THE MID MS
VALLEY.

EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TO
NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY BY DAWN ON SUNDAY...WITH THE TRIALING
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KY ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN
INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS...BUT LITTLE ELSE. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY.

THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN RATHER PROGRESSIVE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AND THEN DEPARTING TO THE EAST OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON
TUESDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OH VALLEY BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY...BUT AS A TROUGH MOVES FROM THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
PLAINS AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND WITH BOUNDARY WILL RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY ON MONDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURES FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

THEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA AS THE SFC LOW IS PROJECTED TO TRACK WELL TO THE
WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA TOWARD JAMES BAY AT MIDWEEK. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE...EVENTUALLY...AND ALSO THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS...FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE CHANCES COULD
LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...AT LEAST IF THE GFS WERE TO
VERIFY.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY AND INTO
TUESDAY. WITH LESS IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS...MONDAY WILL PROBABLY BE
THE WARMER OF THE TWO DAYS. THE MEX AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE REMAINS
WARMER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST...BUT THE SUPERBLEND WAS A TREND
UPWARD. HOWEVER...WITH 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO BE NEAR 15C...SOME
LOCATIONS COULD TOP 80. OTHERWISE...THE TYPICAL FALL MORNING FOG AND
A RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT SHOULD BE A FEATURED ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

ONLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOTED PASSING OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. THESE
SHOULD HELP LIMIT THE FOG DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATER THAN IS TYPICAL
THIS NIGHT. FOG WILL PRIMARILY BE A CONCERN BETWEEN 09 AND 12Z AT SME
AND SJS WHERE TD DEPRESSIONS ARE THE LOWEST. SJS WAS KEPT LOWEST...
IFR...DUE TO ITS LOCATION IN FAR EAST KENTUCKY...WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HAS LINGERED A BIT LONGER OWING TO THE CLOUDS CLEARING OUT
OF THERE LATE ON THURSDAY. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF BETWEEN 12 AND
13Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THEREAFTER. WIND WILL REMAIN
LIGHT...GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY...FRIDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GREIF






000
FXUS63 KJKL 240244 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1044 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1044 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

NOT MUCH TO UPDATE IN TERMS OF THE FORECAST OTHER THAN TWEAKING SOME
TEMPERATURES. GIVEN HOW QUICKLY TEMPS HAVE DROPPED OFF THIS EVENING
HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS A FEW DEGREES TO ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL
COOLING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK TONIGHT. MAINLY FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DIURNAL DROP OFF.
CIRRUS COMING IN FROM THE WEST HAS ALSO HELD TOGETHER A BIT BETTER
OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. AS SUCH...DID INCREASE
THE CLOUD COVER A BIT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL WAIT AND SEE
HOW THIS WILL AFFECT THE LOW TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BEFORE MAKING ANY OTHER ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

PESKY LOW SC DECK IS ONLY JUST NOW BREAKING UP IN THE FAR EAST.
PIKE...MARTIN...AND PORTIONS OF JOHNSON AND FLOYD COUNTIES STILL HAVE
YET TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE. BUT TRANSITING MID AND UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE...AND RIDGE AXIS OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ERODE ANY
LINGERING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE OVERNIGHT LOWS AND FOG POTENTIAL.
MIXING OF DRIER AIR ALOFT HAS NOT BEEN AS STRONG AS MIGHT BE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SFC DEW POINTS HAVE REMAINED SOLIDLY IN THE
MID 30S TO AROUND 40. LOWEST WAS 36...BRIEFLY AT THE QUICKSAND
MESONET. HARLAN HAS BEEN AT 37 FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT
LOWS SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH TROUBLE DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S IN OUR
VALLEY LOCATIONS BUT WITH THE AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE DO
NOT SEE HOW FROST COULD BE MUCH OF A THREAT. FOG SHOULD BE MORE OF AN
ISSUE AS SFC AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY
SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS AR/TX/LA SHOULD SET UP CONDITIONS FAVORABLE
FOR RADIATIVE COOLING. FOG MAY BE DENSE IN SPOTS THROUGH OUR EASTERN
VALLEYS.

OTHERWISE...WEATHER LOOK TRANQUIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MID...UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY BY TOMORROW MORNING. BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH
MORE THAN SOME EXTRA CLOUD COVER WITH THIS DISTURBANCE. INHERITED
TEMPS LOOKED PRETTY GOOD FOR THE SHORT TERM. ONLY TWEAKED TEMPS
TOWARDS LATEST MODEL BLENDS...RESULTING IN VERY MINOR CHANGES
OVERALL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION WITH RIDGING NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND MUCH OF THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY REGION. AT THAT POINT A
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEASTERN COAST WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WORKING INTO NORTHERN
ONTARIO WITH A SHORTWAVE TO ITS SOUTH APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES.
AT THE SFC...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE TRACKING ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH INTO THE MID MS
VALLEY.

EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TO
NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY BY DAWN ON SUNDAY...WITH THE TRIALING
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KY ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN
INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS...BUT LITTLE ELSE. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY.

THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN RATHER PROGRESSIVE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AND THEN DEPARTING TO THE EAST OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON
TUESDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OH VALLEY BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY...BUT AS A TROUGH MOVES FROM THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
PLAINS AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND WITH BOUNDARY WILL RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY ON MONDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURES FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

THEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA AS THE SFC LOW IS PROJECTED TO TRACK WELL TO THE
WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA TOWARD JAMES BAY AT MIDWEEK. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE...EVENTUALLY...AND ALSO THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS...FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE CHANCES COULD
LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...AT LEAST IF THE GFS WERE TO
VERIFY.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY AND INTO
TUESDAY. WITH LESS IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS...MONDAY WILL PROBABLY BE
THE WARMER OF THE TWO DAYS. THE MEX AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE REMAINS
WARMER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST...BUT THE SUPERBLEND WAS A TREND
UPWARD. HOWEVER...WITH 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO BE NEAR 15C...SOME
LOCATIONS COULD TOP 80. OTHERWISE...THE TYPICAL FALL MORNING FOG AND
A RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT SHOULD BE A FEATURED ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

LOW STRATOCU HAS FINALLY MIXED OUT ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN
FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOG WILL BECOME A CONCERN
BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z. HAVE HIT THIS HARDER AT SJS AND LOCATIONS IN THE
FAR EAST...WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS LINGERED A BIT LONGER.
FURTHER WEST...HAVE ONLY ALLOWED FOR SOME MVFR FOG AT SME...AS THE
FOG SHOULD BE A BIT MORE LIMITED TO THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS. THE
FOG WILL BURN OFF BETWEEN 12 AND 14Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
THEREAFTER.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN










000
FXUS63 KJKL 240244 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1044 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1044 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

NOT MUCH TO UPDATE IN TERMS OF THE FORECAST OTHER THAN TWEAKING SOME
TEMPERATURES. GIVEN HOW QUICKLY TEMPS HAVE DROPPED OFF THIS EVENING
HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS A FEW DEGREES TO ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL
COOLING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK TONIGHT. MAINLY FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DIURNAL DROP OFF.
CIRRUS COMING IN FROM THE WEST HAS ALSO HELD TOGETHER A BIT BETTER
OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. AS SUCH...DID INCREASE
THE CLOUD COVER A BIT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL WAIT AND SEE
HOW THIS WILL AFFECT THE LOW TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BEFORE MAKING ANY OTHER ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

PESKY LOW SC DECK IS ONLY JUST NOW BREAKING UP IN THE FAR EAST.
PIKE...MARTIN...AND PORTIONS OF JOHNSON AND FLOYD COUNTIES STILL HAVE
YET TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE. BUT TRANSITING MID AND UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE...AND RIDGE AXIS OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ERODE ANY
LINGERING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE OVERNIGHT LOWS AND FOG POTENTIAL.
MIXING OF DRIER AIR ALOFT HAS NOT BEEN AS STRONG AS MIGHT BE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SFC DEW POINTS HAVE REMAINED SOLIDLY IN THE
MID 30S TO AROUND 40. LOWEST WAS 36...BRIEFLY AT THE QUICKSAND
MESONET. HARLAN HAS BEEN AT 37 FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT
LOWS SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH TROUBLE DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S IN OUR
VALLEY LOCATIONS BUT WITH THE AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE DO
NOT SEE HOW FROST COULD BE MUCH OF A THREAT. FOG SHOULD BE MORE OF AN
ISSUE AS SFC AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY
SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS AR/TX/LA SHOULD SET UP CONDITIONS FAVORABLE
FOR RADIATIVE COOLING. FOG MAY BE DENSE IN SPOTS THROUGH OUR EASTERN
VALLEYS.

OTHERWISE...WEATHER LOOK TRANQUIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MID...UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY BY TOMORROW MORNING. BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH
MORE THAN SOME EXTRA CLOUD COVER WITH THIS DISTURBANCE. INHERITED
TEMPS LOOKED PRETTY GOOD FOR THE SHORT TERM. ONLY TWEAKED TEMPS
TOWARDS LATEST MODEL BLENDS...RESULTING IN VERY MINOR CHANGES
OVERALL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION WITH RIDGING NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND MUCH OF THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY REGION. AT THAT POINT A
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEASTERN COAST WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WORKING INTO NORTHERN
ONTARIO WITH A SHORTWAVE TO ITS SOUTH APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES.
AT THE SFC...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE TRACKING ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH INTO THE MID MS
VALLEY.

EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TO
NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY BY DAWN ON SUNDAY...WITH THE TRIALING
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KY ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN
INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS...BUT LITTLE ELSE. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY.

THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN RATHER PROGRESSIVE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AND THEN DEPARTING TO THE EAST OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON
TUESDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OH VALLEY BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY...BUT AS A TROUGH MOVES FROM THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
PLAINS AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND WITH BOUNDARY WILL RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY ON MONDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURES FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

THEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA AS THE SFC LOW IS PROJECTED TO TRACK WELL TO THE
WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA TOWARD JAMES BAY AT MIDWEEK. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE...EVENTUALLY...AND ALSO THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS...FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE CHANCES COULD
LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...AT LEAST IF THE GFS WERE TO
VERIFY.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY AND INTO
TUESDAY. WITH LESS IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS...MONDAY WILL PROBABLY BE
THE WARMER OF THE TWO DAYS. THE MEX AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE REMAINS
WARMER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST...BUT THE SUPERBLEND WAS A TREND
UPWARD. HOWEVER...WITH 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO BE NEAR 15C...SOME
LOCATIONS COULD TOP 80. OTHERWISE...THE TYPICAL FALL MORNING FOG AND
A RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT SHOULD BE A FEATURED ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

LOW STRATOCU HAS FINALLY MIXED OUT ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN
FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOG WILL BECOME A CONCERN
BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z. HAVE HIT THIS HARDER AT SJS AND LOCATIONS IN THE
FAR EAST...WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS LINGERED A BIT LONGER.
FURTHER WEST...HAVE ONLY ALLOWED FOR SOME MVFR FOG AT SME...AS THE
FOG SHOULD BE A BIT MORE LIMITED TO THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS. THE
FOG WILL BURN OFF BETWEEN 12 AND 14Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
THEREAFTER.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN










000
FXUS63 KJKL 232354 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
754 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK TONIGHT. MAINLY FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DIURNAL DROP OFF.
CIRRUS COMING IN FROM THE WEST HAS ALSO HELD TOGETHER A BIT BETTER
OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. AS SUCH...DID INCREASE
THE CLOUD COVER A BIT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL WAIT AND SEE
HOW THIS WILL AFFECT THE LOW TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BEFORE MAKING ANY OTHER ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

PESKY LOW SC DECK IS ONLY JUST NOW BREAKING UP IN THE FAR EAST.
PIKE...MARTIN...AND PORTIONS OF JOHNSON AND FLOYD COUNTIES STILL HAVE
YET TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE. BUT TRANSITING MID AND UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE...AND RIDGE AXIS OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ERODE ANY
LINGERING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE OVERNIGHT LOWS AND FOG POTENTIAL.
MIXING OF DRIER AIR ALOFT HAS NOT BEEN AS STRONG AS MIGHT BE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SFC DEW POINTS HAVE REMAINED SOLIDLY IN THE
MID 30S TO AROUND 40. LOWEST WAS 36...BRIEFLY AT THE QUICKSAND
MESONET. HARLAN HAS BEEN AT 37 FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT
LOWS SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH TROUBLE DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S IN OUR
VALLEY LOCATIONS BUT WITH THE AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE DO
NOT SEE HOW FROST COULD BE MUCH OF A THREAT. FOG SHOULD BE MORE OF AN
ISSUE AS SFC AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY
SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS AR/TX/LA SHOULD SET UP CONDITIONS FAVORABLE
FOR RADIATIVE COOLING. FOG MAY BE DENSE IN SPOTS THROUGH OUR EASTERN
VALLEYS.

OTHERWISE...WEATHER LOOK TRANQUIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MID...UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY BY TOMORROW MORNING. BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH
MORE THAN SOME EXTRA CLOUD COVER WITH THIS DISTURBANCE. INHERITED
TEMPS LOOKED PRETTY GOOD FOR THE SHORT TERM. ONLY TWEAKED TEMPS
TOWARDS LATEST MODEL BLENDS...RESULTING IN VERY MINOR CHANGES
OVERALL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION WITH RIDGING NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND MUCH OF THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY REGION. AT THAT POINT A
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEASTERN COAST WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WORKING INTO NORTHERN
ONTARIO WITH A SHORTWAVE TO ITS SOUTH APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES.
AT THE SFC...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE TRACKING ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH INTO THE MID MS
VALLEY.

EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TO
NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY BY DAWN ON SUNDAY...WITH THE TRIALING
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KY ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN
INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS...BUT LITTLE ELSE. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY.

THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN RATHER PROGRESSIVE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AND THEN DEPARTING TO THE EAST OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON
TUESDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OH VALLEY BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY...BUT AS A TROUGH MOVES FROM THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
PLAINS AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND WITH BOUNDARY WILL RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY ON MONDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURES FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

THEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA AS THE SFC LOW IS PROJECTED TO TRACK WELL TO THE
WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA TOWARD JAMES BAY AT MIDWEEK. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE...EVENTUALLY...AND ALSO THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS...FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE CHANCES COULD
LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...AT LEAST IF THE GFS WERE TO
VERIFY.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY AND INTO
TUESDAY. WITH LESS IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS...MONDAY WILL PROBABLY BE
THE WARMER OF THE TWO DAYS. THE MEX AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE REMAINS
WARMER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST...BUT THE SUPERBLEND WAS A TREND
UPWARD. HOWEVER...WITH 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO BE NEAR 15C...SOME
LOCATIONS COULD TOP 80. OTHERWISE...THE TYPICAL FALL MORNING FOG AND
A RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT SHOULD BE A FEATURED ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

LOW STRATOCU HAS FINALLY MIXED OUT ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN
FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOG WILL BECOME A CONCERN
BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z. HAVE HIT THIS HARDER AT SJS AND LOCATIONS IN THE
FAR EAST...WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS LINGERED A BIT LONGER.
FURTHER WEST...HAVE ONLY ALLOWED FOR SOME MVFR FOG AT SME...AS THE
FOG SHOULD BE A BIT MORE LIMITED TO THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS. THE
FOG WILL BURN OFF BETWEEN 12 AND 14Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
THEREAFTER.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN








000
FXUS63 KJKL 232004
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
404 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

PESKY LOW SC DECK IS ONLY JUST NOW BREAKING UP IN THE FAR EAST.
PIKE...MARTIN...AND PORTIONS OF JOHNSON AND FLOYD COUNTIES STILL HAVE
YET TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE. BUT TRANSITING MID AND UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE...AND RIDGE AXIS OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ERODE ANY
LINGERING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE OVERNIGHT LOWS AND FOG POTENTIAL.
MIXING OF DRIER AIR ALOFT HAS NOT BEEN AS STRONG AS MIGHT BE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SFC DEW POINTS HAVE REMAINED SOLIDLY IN THE
MID 30S TO AROUND 40. LOWEST WAS 36...BRIEFLY AT THE QUICKSAND
MESONET. HARLAN HAS BEEN AT 37 FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT
LOWS SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH TROUBLE DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S IN OUR
VALLEY LOCATIONS BUT WITH THE AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE DO
NOT SEE HOW FROST COULD BE MUCH OF A THREAT. FOG SHOULD BE MORE OF AN
ISSUE AS SFC AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY
SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS AR/TX/LA SHOULD SET UP CONDITIONS FAVORABLE
FOR RADIATIVE COOLING. FOG MAY BE DENSE IN SPOTS THROUGH OUR EASTERN
VALLEYS.

OTHERWISE...WEATHER LOOK TRANQUIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MID...UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY BY TOMORROW MORNING. BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH
MORE THAN SOME EXTRA CLOUD COVER WITH THIS DISTURBANCE. INHERITED
TEMPS LOOKED PRETTY GOOD FOR THE SHORT TERM. ONLY TWEAKED TEMPS
TOWARDS LATEST MODEL BLENDS...RESULTING IN VERY MINOR CHANGES
OVERALL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION WITH RIDGING NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND MUCH OF THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY REGION. AT THAT POINT A
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEASTERN COAST WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WORKING INTO NORTHERN
ONTARIO WITH A SHORTWAVE TO ITS SOUTH APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES.
AT THE SFC...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE TRACKING ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH INTO THE MID MS
VALLEY.

EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TO
NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY BY DAWN ON SUNDAY...WITH THE TRIALING
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KY ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN
INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS...BUT LITTLE ELSE. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY.

THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN RATHER PROGRESSIVE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AND THEN DEPARTING TO THE EAST OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON
TUESDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OH VALLEY BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY...BUT AS A TROUGH MOVES FROM THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
PLAINS AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND WITH BOUNDARY WILL RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY ON MONDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURES FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

THEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA AS THE SFC LOW IS PROJECTED TO TRACK WELL TO THE
WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA TOWARD JAMES BAY AT MIDWEEK. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE...EVENTUALLY...AND ALSO THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS...FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE CHANCES COULD
LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...AT LEAST IF THE GFS WERE TO
VERIFY.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY AND INTO
TUESDAY. WITH LESS IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS...MONDAY WILL PROBABLY BE
THE WARMER OF THE TWO DAYS. THE MEX AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE REMAINS
WARMER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST...BUT THE SUPERBLEND WAS A TREND
UPWARD. HOWEVER...WITH 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO BE NEAR 15C...SOME
LOCATIONS COULD TOP 80. OTHERWISE...THE TYPICAL FALL MORNING FOG AND
A RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT SHOULD BE A FEATURED ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 217 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

PERSISTENT LOW SC DECK IS FINALLY DISSIPATING ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. EASTERN LOCATIONS...SJS HAVE BEEN EVEN SLOWER TO MIX OUT AND
ARE ONLY NOW BEGINNING TO SEE SOME BREAKS AND SUNSHINE. LOW CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO MIX OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH TO CONCERN
US THEREAFTER. WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS...POSSIBLY SOME
MID LEVEL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG. DRIER AIR IS MIXING DOWN BUT SFC DEW POINTS SHOULD
RECOVER QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS SETTLING OVER THE
AREA DECENT RADIATIVE COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF FOG
OVERNIGHT IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. MAIN THREAT WOULD EXIST AT SME AND
SJS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL HIGH. FOR NOW MENTIONED SOME MVFR AT
SME. COULD SEE SOME FOG AT SJS...IT BEING ASSOCIATED MORE WITH THE
BIG SANDY BUT FOR NOW WENT OPTIMISTIC WITH PLANS TO REEVALUATE TRENDS
IN AFTERNOON DEW POINTS. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY
NORTHEAST BACKING TO THE NORTHWEST.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...RAY








000
FXUS63 KJKL 231957
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
357 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

PESKY LOW SC DECK IS ONLY JUST NOW BREAKING UP IN THE FAR EAST.
PIKE...MARTIN...AND PORTIONS OF JOHNSON AND FLOYD COUNTIES STILL HAVE
YET TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE. BUT TRANSITING MID AND UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE...AND RIDGE AXIS OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ERODE ANY
LINGERING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE OVERNIGHT LOWS AND FOG POTENTIAL.
MIXING OF DRIER AIR ALOFT HAS NOT BEEN AS STRONG AS MIGHT BE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SFC DEW POINTS HAVE REMAINED SOLIDLY IN THE
MID 30S TO AROUND 40. LOWEST WAS 36...BRIEFLY AT THE QUICKSAND
MESONET. HARLAN HAS BEEN AT 37 FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT
LOWS SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH TROUBLE DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S IN OUR
VALLEY LOCATIONS BUT WITH THE AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE DO
NOT SEE HOW FROST COULD BE MUCH OF A THREAT. FOG SHOULD BE MORE OF AN
ISSUE AS SFC AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY
SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS AR/TX/LA SHOULD SET UP CONDITIONS FAVORABLE
FOR RADIATIVE COOLING. FOG MAY BE DENSE IN SPOTS THROUGH OUR EASTERN
VALLEYS.

OTHERWISE...WEATHER LOOK TRANQUIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MID...UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY BY TOMORROW MORNING. BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH
MORE THAN SOME EXTRA CLOUD COVER WITH THIS DISTURBANCE. INHERITED
TEMPS LOOKED PRETTY GOOD FOR THE SHORT TERM. ONLY TWEAKED TEMPS
TOWARDS LATEST MODEL BLENDS...RESULTING IN VERY MINOR CHANGES
OVERALL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

EXTENDED DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 217 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

PERSISTENT LOW SC DECK IS FINALLY DISSIPATING ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. EASTERN LOCATIONS...SJS HAVE BEEN EVEN SLOWER TO MIX OUT AND
ARE ONLY NOW BEGINNING TO SEE SOME BREAKS AND SUNSHINE. LOW CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO MIX OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH TO CONCERN
US THEREAFTER. WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS...POSSIBLY SOME
MID LEVEL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG. DRIER AIR IS MIXING DOWN BUT SFC DEW POINTS SHOULD
RECOVER QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS SETTLING OVER THE
AREA DECENT RADIATIVE COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF FOG
OVERNIGHT IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. MAIN THREAT WOULD EXIST AT SME AND
SJS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL HIGH. FOR NOW MENTIONED SOME MVFR AT
SME. COULD SEE SOME FOG AT SJS...IT BEING ASSOCIATED MORE WITH THE
BIG SANDY BUT FOR NOW WENT OPTIMISTIC WITH PLANS TO REEVALUATE TRENDS
IN AFTERNOON DEW POINTS. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY
NORTHEAST BACKING TO THE NORTHWEST.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...RAY








000
FXUS63 KJKL 231957
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
357 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

PESKY LOW SC DECK IS ONLY JUST NOW BREAKING UP IN THE FAR EAST.
PIKE...MARTIN...AND PORTIONS OF JOHNSON AND FLOYD COUNTIES STILL HAVE
YET TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE. BUT TRANSITING MID AND UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE...AND RIDGE AXIS OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ERODE ANY
LINGERING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE OVERNIGHT LOWS AND FOG POTENTIAL.
MIXING OF DRIER AIR ALOFT HAS NOT BEEN AS STRONG AS MIGHT BE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SFC DEW POINTS HAVE REMAINED SOLIDLY IN THE
MID 30S TO AROUND 40. LOWEST WAS 36...BRIEFLY AT THE QUICKSAND
MESONET. HARLAN HAS BEEN AT 37 FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT
LOWS SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH TROUBLE DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S IN OUR
VALLEY LOCATIONS BUT WITH THE AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE DO
NOT SEE HOW FROST COULD BE MUCH OF A THREAT. FOG SHOULD BE MORE OF AN
ISSUE AS SFC AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY
SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS AR/TX/LA SHOULD SET UP CONDITIONS FAVORABLE
FOR RADIATIVE COOLING. FOG MAY BE DENSE IN SPOTS THROUGH OUR EASTERN
VALLEYS.

OTHERWISE...WEATHER LOOK TRANQUIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MID...UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY BY TOMORROW MORNING. BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH
MORE THAN SOME EXTRA CLOUD COVER WITH THIS DISTURBANCE. INHERITED
TEMPS LOOKED PRETTY GOOD FOR THE SHORT TERM. ONLY TWEAKED TEMPS
TOWARDS LATEST MODEL BLENDS...RESULTING IN VERY MINOR CHANGES
OVERALL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

EXTENDED DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 217 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

PERSISTENT LOW SC DECK IS FINALLY DISSIPATING ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. EASTERN LOCATIONS...SJS HAVE BEEN EVEN SLOWER TO MIX OUT AND
ARE ONLY NOW BEGINNING TO SEE SOME BREAKS AND SUNSHINE. LOW CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO MIX OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH TO CONCERN
US THEREAFTER. WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS...POSSIBLY SOME
MID LEVEL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG. DRIER AIR IS MIXING DOWN BUT SFC DEW POINTS SHOULD
RECOVER QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS SETTLING OVER THE
AREA DECENT RADIATIVE COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF FOG
OVERNIGHT IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. MAIN THREAT WOULD EXIST AT SME AND
SJS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL HIGH. FOR NOW MENTIONED SOME MVFR AT
SME. COULD SEE SOME FOG AT SJS...IT BEING ASSOCIATED MORE WITH THE
BIG SANDY BUT FOR NOW WENT OPTIMISTIC WITH PLANS TO REEVALUATE TRENDS
IN AFTERNOON DEW POINTS. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY
NORTHEAST BACKING TO THE NORTHWEST.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...RAY








000
FXUS63 KJKL 231817
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
217 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1215 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING FROM THE ZONES. UPDATED
HOURLY GRIDS FOR TRENDS IN SKY AND TEMPS. NO OTHER CHANGES ATTM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1007 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

FORECAST IS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING. LOW SC IS BEGINNING TO
ERODE...MIX OUT THIS MORNING. ONLY MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY
TEMPS AS WE ARE STARTING OUT OF THE GATE A BIT SLOW ON DIURNAL RISES.
AFTERNOON HIGHS STILL LOOK GOOD AND NO UPDATES TO THE ZONE PACKAGE
ATTM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

HIGH END MVFR CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE ALL OF THE JKL CWA THIS
MORNING. LUCKILY...SATELLITE TRENDS OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS IS
FINALLY STARTING TO SHOW A BIT OF A DISSIPATING TREND...WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE AS WE HEAD INTO THE DAY AND MIXING IS ALLOWED TO OCCUR.
UNLIKE PREVIOUS THOUGHTS...IT SEEMS AS THOUGH THE BEST DIMINISHMENT
IS ACTUALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD. TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE MORNING IN CASE
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST NEED TO BE MADE...AS MODELS STILL HAVE A
POOR HANDLE ON THE ONGOING CLOUD COVER.

DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN SHORT OF THEIR
ORIGINAL FORECASTED LOWS. AS A RESULT...ENDED UP ADJUSTING BOTH THE
LOW TEMPERATURE AND THE DIURNAL CURVE FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING TO BETTER REFLECT CONDITIONS. THIS WILL COMPLETELY ELIMINATE
ANY CHANCES OF FURTHER FROST DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA AS
WAS ORIGINALLY MENTIONED IN THE MORNING SHORT TERM DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY BEARING DOWN ACROSS THE REGION...AS A
STRONG LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE OFF TO OUR EAST ALONG THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. EXPECT THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM. A UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY. HOWEVER...ALL MODELS ARE SUPPORTING THAT THIS
WAVE WILL LOSE CONSIDERABLE STRENGTH AS IT NEARS US...DUE TO THE
LONG WAVE PATTERN BECOMING INFLUENCED BY THE STRONG COASTAL LOW. AS
SUCH...DON/T EXPECT MUCH IMPACTS TO THE REGION OTHER THAN A FEW MORE
CLOUDS FRIDAY.

GIVEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE...ALL THE MODELS SHOWED EASTERN KY
CLEARING OUT AS OF YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...AND STAYING CLEAR INTO THIS
MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS HAS NOT HAPPENED. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
FROM THE LOW CONTINUES TO FLOW SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN KY...RESULTING
IN QUITE THE PERSISTENT BANK OF LOW END VFR AND HIGH END MVFR CLOUDS
CENTERED OVER OUR CWA AND POINTS TO THE NE. HOPEFULLY WITH THE
INFLUENCE OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING BEGINNING THIS MORNING...AS WELL
AS MOVEMENT OF THE LOW TO THE NE...THESE CLOUDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THE LACK OF MODEL
SUPPORT FOR ONGOING CONDITIONS...TRIED TO USE A BEST GUESS APPROACH
BASED ON THESE ABOVE FACTORS...IN WHICH CASE THE CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN
BREAKING UP JUST AFTER DAWN. WITHOUT THE AFFECT OF THESE
CLOUDS...TEMPS WOULD HAVE BEEN MUCH COOLER THIS MORNING...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FROST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER...CLOUDS HAVE KEPT THE TEMPS WELL ABOVE FREEZING...AND HAVE
PREVENTED ADEQUATE INVERSIONS. THE EXCEPTION IS SITE EKQ ON THE FAR
SW FRINGE OF THE CWA. HERE...ACCORDING TO THE SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS...CLEARING HAS LED TO COOLER TEMPS AND FOG /AS WELL AS
POSSIBLE FROST/ DEVELOPMENT. AS SUCH...IF ANY OF THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE CWA CLEARS OUT JUST BEFORE DAWN...IT WOULD BE POSSIBLE THAT
TEMPS DROP JUST ENOUGH AS TO ALLOW FOR SOME BRIEF FOG DEVELOPMENT
HERE TOO. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED PATCHY FOG AND FROST FOR MOSTLY
CLEAR VALLEY REGIONS BETWEEN NOW AND 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THEY
ALL SHIFT A TROUGH EAST AND OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE A LARGE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE BIG BEND AREA OF TEXAS. THIS RIDGE WILL THEN
EXPAND TO DOMINATE OUR FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED BEFORE
IT FLATTENS OUT A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND AND THE FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION BECOMES MORE ZONAL...FOR A TIME. THERE WILL BE A RESURGENCE
IN THE RIDGE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO A
TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD
THE GFS WITH THIS SO THAT THEY ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. AS
A RESULT...CONFIDENCE HAS IMPROVED THAT A BROAD TROUGH WILL BRUSH
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY BY MIDWEEK WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND SOME OF ITS
ASSOCIATED ENERGY PASSING OVER THE AREA TO CLOSE OUT THE FORECAST.
GIVEN THE IMPROVING MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED A GENERAL BLEND
FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT PASSING
THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS HIGH WILL MODERATE ALLOWING
FOR HIGHER TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE START OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK...PARTICULARLY ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SYSTEM TO THE
NORTHWEST - WHOSE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PUSH WARMER AIR INTO THIS
PART OF THE STATE. AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA...SHOWER...AND PERHAPS THUNDER...CHANCES WILL BE
ON THE RISE FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

THE CR GRID LOAD PROVED TO BE A PRETTY GOOD START WITH CHANGES MADE
MAINLY TO BETTER TIME THE HOURLY POPS TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST. DID ALSO ADD SOME RIDGE AND VALLEY EFFECTS INTO THE LOW
TEMPERATURES GRIDS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 217 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

PERSISTENT LOW SC DECK IS FINALLY DISSIPATING ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. EASTERN LOCATIONS...SJS HAVE BEEN EVEN SLOWER TO MIX OUT AND
ARE ONLY NOW BEGINNING TO SEE SOME BREAKS AND SUNSHINE. LOW CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO MIX OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH TO CONCERN
US THEREAFTER. WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS...POSSIBLY SOME
MID LEVEL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG. DRIER AIR IS MIXING DOWN BUT SFC DEW POINTS SHOULD
RECOVER QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS SETTLING OVER THE
AREA DECENT RADIATIVE COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF FOG
OVERNIGHT IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. MAIN THREAT WOULD EXIST AT SME AND
SJS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL HIGH. FOR NOW MENTIONED SOME MVFR AT
SME. COULD SEE SOME FOG AT SJS...IT BEING ASSOCIATED MORE WITH THE
BIG SANDY BUT FOR NOW WENT OPTIMISTIC WITH PLANS TO REEVALUATE TRENDS
IN AFTERNOON DEW POINTS. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY
NORTHEAST BACKING TO THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...RAY









000
FXUS63 KJKL 231817
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
217 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1215 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING FROM THE ZONES. UPDATED
HOURLY GRIDS FOR TRENDS IN SKY AND TEMPS. NO OTHER CHANGES ATTM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1007 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

FORECAST IS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING. LOW SC IS BEGINNING TO
ERODE...MIX OUT THIS MORNING. ONLY MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY
TEMPS AS WE ARE STARTING OUT OF THE GATE A BIT SLOW ON DIURNAL RISES.
AFTERNOON HIGHS STILL LOOK GOOD AND NO UPDATES TO THE ZONE PACKAGE
ATTM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

HIGH END MVFR CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE ALL OF THE JKL CWA THIS
MORNING. LUCKILY...SATELLITE TRENDS OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS IS
FINALLY STARTING TO SHOW A BIT OF A DISSIPATING TREND...WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE AS WE HEAD INTO THE DAY AND MIXING IS ALLOWED TO OCCUR.
UNLIKE PREVIOUS THOUGHTS...IT SEEMS AS THOUGH THE BEST DIMINISHMENT
IS ACTUALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD. TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE MORNING IN CASE
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST NEED TO BE MADE...AS MODELS STILL HAVE A
POOR HANDLE ON THE ONGOING CLOUD COVER.

DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN SHORT OF THEIR
ORIGINAL FORECASTED LOWS. AS A RESULT...ENDED UP ADJUSTING BOTH THE
LOW TEMPERATURE AND THE DIURNAL CURVE FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING TO BETTER REFLECT CONDITIONS. THIS WILL COMPLETELY ELIMINATE
ANY CHANCES OF FURTHER FROST DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA AS
WAS ORIGINALLY MENTIONED IN THE MORNING SHORT TERM DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY BEARING DOWN ACROSS THE REGION...AS A
STRONG LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE OFF TO OUR EAST ALONG THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. EXPECT THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM. A UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY. HOWEVER...ALL MODELS ARE SUPPORTING THAT THIS
WAVE WILL LOSE CONSIDERABLE STRENGTH AS IT NEARS US...DUE TO THE
LONG WAVE PATTERN BECOMING INFLUENCED BY THE STRONG COASTAL LOW. AS
SUCH...DON/T EXPECT MUCH IMPACTS TO THE REGION OTHER THAN A FEW MORE
CLOUDS FRIDAY.

GIVEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE...ALL THE MODELS SHOWED EASTERN KY
CLEARING OUT AS OF YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...AND STAYING CLEAR INTO THIS
MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS HAS NOT HAPPENED. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
FROM THE LOW CONTINUES TO FLOW SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN KY...RESULTING
IN QUITE THE PERSISTENT BANK OF LOW END VFR AND HIGH END MVFR CLOUDS
CENTERED OVER OUR CWA AND POINTS TO THE NE. HOPEFULLY WITH THE
INFLUENCE OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING BEGINNING THIS MORNING...AS WELL
AS MOVEMENT OF THE LOW TO THE NE...THESE CLOUDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THE LACK OF MODEL
SUPPORT FOR ONGOING CONDITIONS...TRIED TO USE A BEST GUESS APPROACH
BASED ON THESE ABOVE FACTORS...IN WHICH CASE THE CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN
BREAKING UP JUST AFTER DAWN. WITHOUT THE AFFECT OF THESE
CLOUDS...TEMPS WOULD HAVE BEEN MUCH COOLER THIS MORNING...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FROST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER...CLOUDS HAVE KEPT THE TEMPS WELL ABOVE FREEZING...AND HAVE
PREVENTED ADEQUATE INVERSIONS. THE EXCEPTION IS SITE EKQ ON THE FAR
SW FRINGE OF THE CWA. HERE...ACCORDING TO THE SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS...CLEARING HAS LED TO COOLER TEMPS AND FOG /AS WELL AS
POSSIBLE FROST/ DEVELOPMENT. AS SUCH...IF ANY OF THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE CWA CLEARS OUT JUST BEFORE DAWN...IT WOULD BE POSSIBLE THAT
TEMPS DROP JUST ENOUGH AS TO ALLOW FOR SOME BRIEF FOG DEVELOPMENT
HERE TOO. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED PATCHY FOG AND FROST FOR MOSTLY
CLEAR VALLEY REGIONS BETWEEN NOW AND 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THEY
ALL SHIFT A TROUGH EAST AND OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE A LARGE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE BIG BEND AREA OF TEXAS. THIS RIDGE WILL THEN
EXPAND TO DOMINATE OUR FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED BEFORE
IT FLATTENS OUT A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND AND THE FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION BECOMES MORE ZONAL...FOR A TIME. THERE WILL BE A RESURGENCE
IN THE RIDGE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO A
TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD
THE GFS WITH THIS SO THAT THEY ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. AS
A RESULT...CONFIDENCE HAS IMPROVED THAT A BROAD TROUGH WILL BRUSH
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY BY MIDWEEK WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND SOME OF ITS
ASSOCIATED ENERGY PASSING OVER THE AREA TO CLOSE OUT THE FORECAST.
GIVEN THE IMPROVING MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED A GENERAL BLEND
FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT PASSING
THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS HIGH WILL MODERATE ALLOWING
FOR HIGHER TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE START OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK...PARTICULARLY ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SYSTEM TO THE
NORTHWEST - WHOSE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PUSH WARMER AIR INTO THIS
PART OF THE STATE. AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA...SHOWER...AND PERHAPS THUNDER...CHANCES WILL BE
ON THE RISE FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

THE CR GRID LOAD PROVED TO BE A PRETTY GOOD START WITH CHANGES MADE
MAINLY TO BETTER TIME THE HOURLY POPS TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST. DID ALSO ADD SOME RIDGE AND VALLEY EFFECTS INTO THE LOW
TEMPERATURES GRIDS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 217 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

PERSISTENT LOW SC DECK IS FINALLY DISSIPATING ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. EASTERN LOCATIONS...SJS HAVE BEEN EVEN SLOWER TO MIX OUT AND
ARE ONLY NOW BEGINNING TO SEE SOME BREAKS AND SUNSHINE. LOW CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO MIX OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH TO CONCERN
US THEREAFTER. WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS...POSSIBLY SOME
MID LEVEL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG. DRIER AIR IS MIXING DOWN BUT SFC DEW POINTS SHOULD
RECOVER QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS SETTLING OVER THE
AREA DECENT RADIATIVE COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF FOG
OVERNIGHT IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. MAIN THREAT WOULD EXIST AT SME AND
SJS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL HIGH. FOR NOW MENTIONED SOME MVFR AT
SME. COULD SEE SOME FOG AT SJS...IT BEING ASSOCIATED MORE WITH THE
BIG SANDY BUT FOR NOW WENT OPTIMISTIC WITH PLANS TO REEVALUATE TRENDS
IN AFTERNOON DEW POINTS. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY
NORTHEAST BACKING TO THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...RAY









000
FXUS63 KJKL 231615
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1215 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1215 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING FROM THE ZONES. UPDATED
HOURLY GRIDS FOR TRENDS IN SKY AND TEMPS. NO OTHER CHANGES ATTM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1007 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

FORECAST IS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING. LOW SC IS BEGINNING TO
ERODE...MIX OUT THIS MORNING. ONLY MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY
TEMPS AS WE ARE STARTING OUT OF THE GATE A BIT SLOW ON DIURNAL RISES.
AFTERNOON HIGHS STILL LOOK GOOD AND NO UPDATES TO THE ZONE PACKAGE
ATTM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

HIGH END MVFR CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE ALL OF THE JKL CWA THIS
MORNING. LUCKILY...SATELLITE TRENDS OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS IS
FINALLY STARTING TO SHOW A BIT OF A DISSIPATING TREND...WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE AS WE HEAD INTO THE DAY AND MIXING IS ALLOWED TO OCCUR.
UNLIKE PREVIOUS THOUGHTS...IT SEEMS AS THOUGH THE BEST DIMINISHMENT
IS ACTUALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD. TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE MORNING IN CASE
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST NEED TO BE MADE...AS MODELS STILL HAVE A
POOR HANDLE ON THE ONGOING CLOUD COVER.

DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN SHORT OF THEIR
ORIGINAL FORECASTED LOWS. AS A RESULT...ENDED UP ADJUSTING BOTH THE
LOW TEMPERATURE AND THE DIURNAL CURVE FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING TO BETTER REFLECT CONDITIONS. THIS WILL COMPLETELY ELIMINATE
ANY CHANCES OF FURTHER FROST DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA AS
WAS ORIGINALLY MENTIONED IN THE MORNING SHORT TERM DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY BEARING DOWN ACROSS THE REGION...AS A
STRONG LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE OFF TO OUR EAST ALONG THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. EXPECT THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM. A UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY. HOWEVER...ALL MODELS ARE SUPPORTING THAT THIS
WAVE WILL LOSE CONSIDERABLE STRENGTH AS IT NEARS US...DUE TO THE
LONG WAVE PATTERN BECOMING INFLUENCED BY THE STRONG COASTAL LOW. AS
SUCH...DON/T EXPECT MUCH IMPACTS TO THE REGION OTHER THAN A FEW MORE
CLOUDS FRIDAY.

GIVEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE...ALL THE MODELS SHOWED EASTERN KY
CLEARING OUT AS OF YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...AND STAYING CLEAR INTO THIS
MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS HAS NOT HAPPENED. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
FROM THE LOW CONTINUES TO FLOW SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN KY...RESULTING
IN QUITE THE PERSISTENT BANK OF LOW END VFR AND HIGH END MVFR CLOUDS
CENTERED OVER OUR CWA AND POINTS TO THE NE. HOPEFULLY WITH THE
INFLUENCE OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING BEGINNING THIS MORNING...AS WELL
AS MOVEMENT OF THE LOW TO THE NE...THESE CLOUDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THE LACK OF MODEL
SUPPORT FOR ONGOING CONDITIONS...TRIED TO USE A BEST GUESS APPROACH
BASED ON THESE ABOVE FACTORS...IN WHICH CASE THE CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN
BREAKING UP JUST AFTER DAWN. WITHOUT THE AFFECT OF THESE
CLOUDS...TEMPS WOULD HAVE BEEN MUCH COOLER THIS MORNING...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FROST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER...CLOUDS HAVE KEPT THE TEMPS WELL ABOVE FREEZING...AND HAVE
PREVENTED ADEQUATE INVERSIONS. THE EXCEPTION IS SITE EKQ ON THE FAR
SW FRINGE OF THE CWA. HERE...ACCORDING TO THE SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS...CLEARING HAS LED TO COOLER TEMPS AND FOG /AS WELL AS
POSSIBLE FROST/ DEVELOPMENT. AS SUCH...IF ANY OF THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE CWA CLEARS OUT JUST BEFORE DAWN...IT WOULD BE POSSIBLE THAT
TEMPS DROP JUST ENOUGH AS TO ALLOW FOR SOME BRIEF FOG DEVELOPMENT
HERE TOO. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED PATCHY FOG AND FROST FOR MOSTLY
CLEAR VALLEY REGIONS BETWEEN NOW AND 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THEY
ALL SHIFT A TROUGH EAST AND OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE A LARGE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE BIG BEND AREA OF TEXAS. THIS RIDGE WILL THEN
EXPAND TO DOMINATE OUR FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED BEFORE
IT FLATTENS OUT A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND AND THE FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION BECOMES MORE ZONAL...FOR A TIME. THERE WILL BE A RESURGENCE
IN THE RIDGE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO A
TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD
THE GFS WITH THIS SO THAT THEY ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. AS
A RESULT...CONFIDENCE HAS IMPROVED THAT A BROAD TROUGH WILL BRUSH
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY BY MIDWEEK WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND SOME OF ITS
ASSOCIATED ENERGY PASSING OVER THE AREA TO CLOSE OUT THE FORECAST.
GIVEN THE IMPROVING MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED A GENERAL BLEND
FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT PASSING
THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS HIGH WILL MODERATE ALLOWING
FOR HIGHER TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE START OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK...PARTICULARLY ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SYSTEM TO THE
NORTHWEST - WHOSE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PUSH WARMER AIR INTO THIS
PART OF THE STATE. AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA...SHOWER...AND PERHAPS THUNDER...CHANCES WILL BE
ON THE RISE FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

THE CR GRID LOAD PROVED TO BE A PRETTY GOOD START WITH CHANGES MADE
MAINLY TO BETTER TIME THE HOURLY POPS TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST. DID ALSO ADD SOME RIDGE AND VALLEY EFFECTS INTO THE LOW
TEMPERATURES GRIDS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 709 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

HIGH END MVFR CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE ALL OF THE JKL CWA THIS
MORNING. LUCKILY...SATELLITE TRENDS OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS ARE
FINALLY STARTING TO SHOW A BIT OF A DISSIPATING TREND...WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE AS WE HEAD INTO THE DAY AND MIXING IS ALLOWED TO OCCUR.
UNLIKE PREVIOUS THOUGHTS...IT SEEMS AS THOUGH THE BEST DIMINISHMENT
IS ACTUALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE...PROGRESSING
SOUTHWARD. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE
MORNING IN CASE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST NEED TO BE MADE...AS
MODELS STILL HAVE A POOR HANDLE ON THE ONGOING CLOUD COVER. ONCE
THESE CLOUDS FINALLY DO DISSIPATE...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP CLEAR
AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KY INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY LEAD TO INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS
LATE TONIGHT. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED THIS IN THE TAFS...THOUGH IT
SHOULD CREATE NO CATEGORY CHANGE.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JMW








000
FXUS63 KJKL 231615
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1215 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1215 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING FROM THE ZONES. UPDATED
HOURLY GRIDS FOR TRENDS IN SKY AND TEMPS. NO OTHER CHANGES ATTM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1007 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

FORECAST IS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING. LOW SC IS BEGINNING TO
ERODE...MIX OUT THIS MORNING. ONLY MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY
TEMPS AS WE ARE STARTING OUT OF THE GATE A BIT SLOW ON DIURNAL RISES.
AFTERNOON HIGHS STILL LOOK GOOD AND NO UPDATES TO THE ZONE PACKAGE
ATTM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

HIGH END MVFR CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE ALL OF THE JKL CWA THIS
MORNING. LUCKILY...SATELLITE TRENDS OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS IS
FINALLY STARTING TO SHOW A BIT OF A DISSIPATING TREND...WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE AS WE HEAD INTO THE DAY AND MIXING IS ALLOWED TO OCCUR.
UNLIKE PREVIOUS THOUGHTS...IT SEEMS AS THOUGH THE BEST DIMINISHMENT
IS ACTUALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD. TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE MORNING IN CASE
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST NEED TO BE MADE...AS MODELS STILL HAVE A
POOR HANDLE ON THE ONGOING CLOUD COVER.

DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN SHORT OF THEIR
ORIGINAL FORECASTED LOWS. AS A RESULT...ENDED UP ADJUSTING BOTH THE
LOW TEMPERATURE AND THE DIURNAL CURVE FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING TO BETTER REFLECT CONDITIONS. THIS WILL COMPLETELY ELIMINATE
ANY CHANCES OF FURTHER FROST DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA AS
WAS ORIGINALLY MENTIONED IN THE MORNING SHORT TERM DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY BEARING DOWN ACROSS THE REGION...AS A
STRONG LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE OFF TO OUR EAST ALONG THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. EXPECT THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM. A UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY. HOWEVER...ALL MODELS ARE SUPPORTING THAT THIS
WAVE WILL LOSE CONSIDERABLE STRENGTH AS IT NEARS US...DUE TO THE
LONG WAVE PATTERN BECOMING INFLUENCED BY THE STRONG COASTAL LOW. AS
SUCH...DON/T EXPECT MUCH IMPACTS TO THE REGION OTHER THAN A FEW MORE
CLOUDS FRIDAY.

GIVEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE...ALL THE MODELS SHOWED EASTERN KY
CLEARING OUT AS OF YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...AND STAYING CLEAR INTO THIS
MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS HAS NOT HAPPENED. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
FROM THE LOW CONTINUES TO FLOW SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN KY...RESULTING
IN QUITE THE PERSISTENT BANK OF LOW END VFR AND HIGH END MVFR CLOUDS
CENTERED OVER OUR CWA AND POINTS TO THE NE. HOPEFULLY WITH THE
INFLUENCE OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING BEGINNING THIS MORNING...AS WELL
AS MOVEMENT OF THE LOW TO THE NE...THESE CLOUDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THE LACK OF MODEL
SUPPORT FOR ONGOING CONDITIONS...TRIED TO USE A BEST GUESS APPROACH
BASED ON THESE ABOVE FACTORS...IN WHICH CASE THE CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN
BREAKING UP JUST AFTER DAWN. WITHOUT THE AFFECT OF THESE
CLOUDS...TEMPS WOULD HAVE BEEN MUCH COOLER THIS MORNING...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FROST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER...CLOUDS HAVE KEPT THE TEMPS WELL ABOVE FREEZING...AND HAVE
PREVENTED ADEQUATE INVERSIONS. THE EXCEPTION IS SITE EKQ ON THE FAR
SW FRINGE OF THE CWA. HERE...ACCORDING TO THE SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS...CLEARING HAS LED TO COOLER TEMPS AND FOG /AS WELL AS
POSSIBLE FROST/ DEVELOPMENT. AS SUCH...IF ANY OF THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE CWA CLEARS OUT JUST BEFORE DAWN...IT WOULD BE POSSIBLE THAT
TEMPS DROP JUST ENOUGH AS TO ALLOW FOR SOME BRIEF FOG DEVELOPMENT
HERE TOO. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED PATCHY FOG AND FROST FOR MOSTLY
CLEAR VALLEY REGIONS BETWEEN NOW AND 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THEY
ALL SHIFT A TROUGH EAST AND OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE A LARGE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE BIG BEND AREA OF TEXAS. THIS RIDGE WILL THEN
EXPAND TO DOMINATE OUR FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED BEFORE
IT FLATTENS OUT A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND AND THE FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION BECOMES MORE ZONAL...FOR A TIME. THERE WILL BE A RESURGENCE
IN THE RIDGE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO A
TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD
THE GFS WITH THIS SO THAT THEY ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. AS
A RESULT...CONFIDENCE HAS IMPROVED THAT A BROAD TROUGH WILL BRUSH
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY BY MIDWEEK WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND SOME OF ITS
ASSOCIATED ENERGY PASSING OVER THE AREA TO CLOSE OUT THE FORECAST.
GIVEN THE IMPROVING MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED A GENERAL BLEND
FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT PASSING
THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS HIGH WILL MODERATE ALLOWING
FOR HIGHER TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE START OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK...PARTICULARLY ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SYSTEM TO THE
NORTHWEST - WHOSE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PUSH WARMER AIR INTO THIS
PART OF THE STATE. AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA...SHOWER...AND PERHAPS THUNDER...CHANCES WILL BE
ON THE RISE FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

THE CR GRID LOAD PROVED TO BE A PRETTY GOOD START WITH CHANGES MADE
MAINLY TO BETTER TIME THE HOURLY POPS TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST. DID ALSO ADD SOME RIDGE AND VALLEY EFFECTS INTO THE LOW
TEMPERATURES GRIDS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 709 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

HIGH END MVFR CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE ALL OF THE JKL CWA THIS
MORNING. LUCKILY...SATELLITE TRENDS OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS ARE
FINALLY STARTING TO SHOW A BIT OF A DISSIPATING TREND...WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE AS WE HEAD INTO THE DAY AND MIXING IS ALLOWED TO OCCUR.
UNLIKE PREVIOUS THOUGHTS...IT SEEMS AS THOUGH THE BEST DIMINISHMENT
IS ACTUALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE...PROGRESSING
SOUTHWARD. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE
MORNING IN CASE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST NEED TO BE MADE...AS
MODELS STILL HAVE A POOR HANDLE ON THE ONGOING CLOUD COVER. ONCE
THESE CLOUDS FINALLY DO DISSIPATE...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP CLEAR
AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KY INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY LEAD TO INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS
LATE TONIGHT. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED THIS IN THE TAFS...THOUGH IT
SHOULD CREATE NO CATEGORY CHANGE.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JMW








000
FXUS63 KJKL 231407
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1007 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1007 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

FORECAST IS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING. LOW SC IS BEGINNING TO
ERODE...MIX OUT THIS MORNING. ONLY MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY
TEMPS AS WE ARE STARTING OUT OF THE GATE A BIT SLOW ON DIURNAL RISES.
AFTERNOON HIGHS STILL LOOK GOOD AND NO UPDATES TO THE ZONE PACKAGE
ATTM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

HIGH END MVFR CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE ALL OF THE JKL CWA THIS
MORNING. LUCKILY...SATELLITE TRENDS OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS IS
FINALLY STARTING TO SHOW A BIT OF A DISSIPATING TREND...WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE AS WE HEAD INTO THE DAY AND MIXING IS ALLOWED TO OCCUR.
UNLIKE PREVIOUS THOUGHTS...IT SEEMS AS THOUGH THE BEST DIMINISHMENT
IS ACTUALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD. TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE MORNING IN CASE
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST NEED TO BE MADE...AS MODELS STILL HAVE A
POOR HANDLE ON THE ONGOING CLOUD COVER.

DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN SHORT OF THEIR
ORIGINAL FORECASTED LOWS. AS A RESULT...ENDED UP ADJUSTING BOTH THE
LOW TEMPERATURE AND THE DIURNAL CURVE FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING TO BETTER REFLECT CONDITIONS. THIS WILL COMPLETELY ELIMINATE
ANY CHANCES OF FURTHER FROST DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA AS
WAS ORIGINALLY MENTIONED IN THE MORNING SHORT TERM DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY BEARING DOWN ACROSS THE REGION...AS A
STRONG LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE OFF TO OUR EAST ALONG THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. EXPECT THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM. A UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY. HOWEVER...ALL MODELS ARE SUPPORTING THAT THIS
WAVE WILL LOSE CONSIDERABLE STRENGTH AS IT NEARS US...DUE TO THE
LONG WAVE PATTERN BECOMING INFLUENCED BY THE STRONG COASTAL LOW. AS
SUCH...DON/T EXPECT MUCH IMPACTS TO THE REGION OTHER THAN A FEW MORE
CLOUDS FRIDAY.

GIVEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE...ALL THE MODELS SHOWED EASTERN KY
CLEARING OUT AS OF YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...AND STAYING CLEAR INTO THIS
MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS HAS NOT HAPPENED. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
FROM THE LOW CONTINUES TO FLOW SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN KY...RESULTING
IN QUITE THE PERSISTENT BANK OF LOW END VFR AND HIGH END MVFR CLOUDS
CENTERED OVER OUR CWA AND POINTS TO THE NE. HOPEFULLY WITH THE
INFLUENCE OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING BEGINNING THIS MORNING...AS WELL
AS MOVEMENT OF THE LOW TO THE NE...THESE CLOUDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THE LACK OF MODEL
SUPPORT FOR ONGOING CONDITIONS...TRIED TO USE A BEST GUESS APPROACH
BASED ON THESE ABOVE FACTORS...IN WHICH CASE THE CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN
BREAKING UP JUST AFTER DAWN. WITHOUT THE AFFECT OF THESE
CLOUDS...TEMPS WOULD HAVE BEEN MUCH COOLER THIS MORNING...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FROST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER...CLOUDS HAVE KEPT THE TEMPS WELL ABOVE FREEZING...AND HAVE
PREVENTED ADEQUATE INVERSIONS. THE EXCEPTION IS SITE EKQ ON THE FAR
SW FRINGE OF THE CWA. HERE...ACCORDING TO THE SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS...CLEARING HAS LED TO COOLER TEMPS AND FOG /AS WELL AS
POSSIBLE FROST/ DEVELOPMENT. AS SUCH...IF ANY OF THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE CWA CLEARS OUT JUST BEFORE DAWN...IT WOULD BE POSSIBLE THAT
TEMPS DROP JUST ENOUGH AS TO ALLOW FOR SOME BRIEF FOG DEVELOPMENT
HERE TOO. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED PATCHY FOG AND FROST FOR MOSTLY
CLEAR VALLEY REGIONS BETWEEN NOW AND 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THEY
ALL SHIFT A TROUGH EAST AND OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE A LARGE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE BIG BEND AREA OF TEXAS. THIS RIDGE WILL THEN
EXPAND TO DOMINATE OUR FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED BEFORE
IT FLATTENS OUT A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND AND THE FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION BECOMES MORE ZONAL...FOR A TIME. THERE WILL BE A RESURGENCE
IN THE RIDGE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO A
TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD
THE GFS WITH THIS SO THAT THEY ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. AS
A RESULT...CONFIDENCE HAS IMPROVED THAT A BROAD TROUGH WILL BRUSH
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY BY MIDWEEK WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND SOME OF ITS
ASSOCIATED ENERGY PASSING OVER THE AREA TO CLOSE OUT THE FORECAST.
GIVEN THE IMPROVING MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED A GENERAL BLEND
FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT PASSING
THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS HIGH WILL MODERATE ALLOWING
FOR HIGHER TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE START OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK...PARTICULARLY ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SYSTEM TO THE
NORTHWEST - WHOSE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PUSH WARMER AIR INTO THIS
PART OF THE STATE. AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA...SHOWER...AND PERHAPS THUNDER...CHANCES WILL BE
ON THE RISE FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

THE CR GRID LOAD PROVED TO BE A PRETTY GOOD START WITH CHANGES MADE
MAINLY TO BETTER TIME THE HOURLY POPS TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST. DID ALSO ADD SOME RIDGE AND VALLEY EFFECTS INTO THE LOW
TEMPERATURES GRIDS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 709 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

HIGH END MVFR CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE ALL OF THE JKL CWA THIS
MORNING. LUCKILY...SATELLITE TRENDS OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS ARE
FINALLY STARTING TO SHOW A BIT OF A DISSIPATING TREND...WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE AS WE HEAD INTO THE DAY AND MIXING IS ALLOWED TO OCCUR.
UNLIKE PREVIOUS THOUGHTS...IT SEEMS AS THOUGH THE BEST DIMINISHMENT
IS ACTUALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE...PROGRESSING
SOUTHWARD. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE
MORNING IN CASE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST NEED TO BE MADE...AS
MODELS STILL HAVE A POOR HANDLE ON THE ONGOING CLOUD COVER. ONCE
THESE CLOUDS FINALLY DO DISSIPATE...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP CLEAR
AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KY INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY LEAD TO INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS
LATE TONIGHT. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED THIS IN THE TAFS...THOUGH IT
SHOULD CREATE NO CATEGORY CHANGE.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JMW









000
FXUS63 KJKL 231110
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
710 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

HIGH END MVFR CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE ALL OF THE JKL CWA THIS
MORNING. LUCKILY...SATELLITE TRENDS OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS IS
FINALLY STARTING TO SHOW A BIT OF A DISSIPATING TREND...WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE AS WE HEAD INTO THE DAY AND MIXING IS ALLOWED TO OCCUR.
UNLIKE PREVIOUS THOUGHTS...IT SEEMS AS THOUGH THE BEST DIMINISHMENT
IS ACTUALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD. TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE MORNING IN CASE
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST NEED TO BE MADE...AS MODELS STILL HAVE A
POOR HANDLE ON THE ONGOING CLOUD COVER.

DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN SHORT OF THEIR
ORIGINAL FORECASTED LOWS. AS A RESULT...ENDED UP ADJUSTING BOTH THE
LOW TEMPERATURE AND THE DIURNAL CURVE FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING TO BETTER REFLECT CONDITIONS. THIS WILL COMPLETELY ELIMINATE
ANY CHANCES OF FURTHER FROST DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA AS
WAS ORIGINALLY MENTIONED IN THE MORNING SHORT TERM DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY BEARING DOWN ACROSS THE REGION...AS A
STRONG LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE OFF TO OUR EAST ALONG THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. EXPECT THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM. A UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY. HOWEVER...ALL MODELS ARE SUPPORTING THAT THIS
WAVE WILL LOSE CONSIDERABLE STRENGTH AS IT NEARS US...DUE TO THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN BECOMING INFLUENCED BY THE STRONG COASTAL LOW. AS
SUCH...DON/T EXPECT MUCH IMPACTS TO THE REGION OTHER THAN A FEW MORE
CLOUDS FRIDAY.

GIVEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE...ALL THE MODELS SHOWED EASTERN KY
CLEARING OUT AS OF YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...AND STAYING CLEAR INTO THIS
MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS HAS NOT HAPPENED. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
FROM THE LOW CONTINUES TO FLOW SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN KY...RESULTING
IN QUITE THE PERSISTENT BANK OF LOW END VFR AND HIGH END MVFR CLOUDS
CENTERED OVER OUR CWA AND POINTS TO THE NE. HOPEFULLY WITH THE
INFLUENCE OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING BEGINNING THIS MORNING...AS WELL
AS MOVEMENT OF THE LOW TO THE NE...THESE CLOUDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THE LACK OF MODEL
SUPPORT FOR ONGOING CONDITIONS...TRIED TO USE A BEST GUESS APPROACH
BASED ON THESE ABOVE FACTORS...IN WHICH CASE THE CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN
BREAKING UP JUST AFTER DAWN. WITHOUT THE AFFECT OF THESE
CLOUDS...TEMPS WOULD HAVE BEEN MUCH COOLER THIS MORNING...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FROST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER...CLOUDS HAVE KEPT THE TEMPS WELL ABOVE FREEZING...AND HAVE
PREVENTED ADEQUATE INVERSIONS. THE EXCEPTION IS SITE EKQ ON THE FAR
SW FRINGE OF THE CWA. HERE...ACCORDING TO THE SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS...CLEARING HAS LED TO COOLER TEMPS AND FOG /AS WELL AS
POSSIBLE FROST/ DEVELOPMENT. AS SUCH...IF ANY OF THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE CWA CLEARS OUT JUST BEFORE DAWN...IT WOULD BE POSSIBLE THAT
TEMPS DROP JUST ENOUGH AS TO ALLOW FOR SOME BRIEF FOG DEVELOPMENT
HERE TOO. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED PATCHY FOG AND FROST FOR MOSTLY
CLEAR VALLEY REGIONS BETWEEN NOW AND 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THEY
ALL SHIFT A TROUGH EAST AND OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE A LARGE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE BIG BEND AREA OF TEXAS. THIS RIDGE WILL THEN
EXPAND TO DOMINATE OUR FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED BEFORE
IT FLATTENS OUT A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND AND THE FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION BECOMES MORE ZONAL...FOR A TIME. THERE WILL BE A RESURGENCE
IN THE RIDGE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO A
TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD
THE GFS WITH THIS SO THAT THEY ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. AS
A RESULT...CONFIDENCE HAS IMPROVED THAT A BROAD TROUGH WILL BRUSH
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY BY MIDWEEK WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND SOME OF ITS
ASSOCIATED ENERGY PASSING OVER THE AREA TO CLOSE OUT THE FORECAST.
GIVEN THE IMPROVING MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED A GENERAL BLEND
FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT PASSING
THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS HIGH WILL MODERATE ALLOWING
FOR HIGHER TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE START OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK...PARTICULARLY ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SYSTEM TO THE
NORTHWEST - WHOSE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PUSH WARMER AIR INTO THIS
PART OF THE STATE. AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA...SHOWER...AND PERHAPS THUNDER...CHANCES WILL BE
ON THE RISE FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

THE CR GRID LOAD PROVED TO BE A PRETTY GOOD START WITH CHANGES MADE
MAINLY TO BETTER TIME THE HOURLY POPS TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST. DID ALSO ADD SOME RIDGE AND VALLEY EFFECTS INTO THE LOW
TEMPERATURES GRIDS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 709 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

HIGH END MVFR CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE ALL OF THE JKL CWA THIS
MORNING. LUCKILY...SATELLITE TRENDS OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS ARE
FINALLY STARTING TO SHOW A BIT OF A DISSIPATING TREND...WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE AS WE HEAD INTO THE DAY AND MIXING IS ALLOWED TO OCCUR.
UNLIKE PREVIOUS THOUGHTS...IT SEEMS AS THOUGH THE BEST DIMINISHMENT
IS ACTUALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE...PROGRESSING
SOUTHWARD. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE
MORNING IN CASE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST NEED TO BE MADE...AS
MODELS STILL HAVE A POOR HANDLE ON THE ONGOING CLOUD COVER. ONCE
THESE CLOUDS FINALLY DO DISSIPATE...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP CLEAR
AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KY INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY LEAD TO INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS
LATE TONIGHT. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED THIS IN THE TAFS...THOUGH IT
SHOULD CREATE NO CATEGORY CHANGE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JMW








000
FXUS63 KJKL 231038
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
638 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

HIGH END MVFR CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE ALL OF THE JKL CWA THIS
MORNING. LUCKILY...SATELLITE TRENDS OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS IS
FINALLY STARTING TO SHOW A BIT OF A DISSIPATING TREND...WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE AS WE HEAD INTO THE DAY AND MIXING IS ALLOWED TO OCCUR.
UNLIKE PREVIOUS THOUGHTS...IT SEEMS AS THOUGH THE BEST DIMINISHMENT
IS ACTUALLY ACROSS THE CWA...PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD. TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE MORNING IN CASE
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST NEED TO BE MADE...AS MODELS STILL HAVE A
POOR HANDLE ON THE ONGOING CLOUD COVER.

DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN SHORT OF THEIR
ORIGINAL FORECASTED LOWS. AS A RESULT...ENDED UP ADJUSTING BOTH THE
LOW TEMPERATURE AND THE DIURNAL CURVE FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING TO BETTER REFLECT CONDITIONS. THIS WILL COMPLETELY ELIMINATE
ANY CHANCES OF FURTHER FROST DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA AS
WAS ORIGINALLY MENTIONED IN THE MORNING SHORT TERM DISCUSSION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THEY
ALL SHIFT A TROUGH EAST AND OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE A LARGE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE BIG BEND AREA OF TEXAS. THIS RIDGE WILL THEN
EXPAND TO DOMINATE OUR FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED BEFORE
IT FLATTENS OUT A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND AND THE FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION BECOMES MORE ZONAL...FOR A TIME. THERE WILL BE A RESURGENCE
IN THE RIDGE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO A
TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD
THE GFS WITH THIS SO THAT THEY ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. AS
A RESULT...CONFIDENCE HAS IMPROVED THAT A BROAD TROUGH WILL BRUSH
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY BY MIDWEEK WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND SOME OF ITS
ASSOCIATED ENERGY PASSING OVER THE AREA TO CLOSE OUT THE FORECAST.
GIVEN THE IMPROVING MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED A GENERAL BLEND
FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT PASSING
THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS HIGH WILL MODERATE ALLOWING
FOR HIGHER TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE START OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK...PARTICULARLY ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SYSTEM TO THE
NORTHWEST - WHOSE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PUSH WARMER AIR INTO THIS
PART OF THE STATE. AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA...SHOWER...AND PERHAPS THUNDER...CHANCES WILL BE
ON THE RISE FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

THE CR GRID LOAD PROVED TO BE A PRETTY GOOD START WITH CHANGES MADE
MAINLY TO BETTER TIME THE HOURLY POPS TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST. DID ALSO ADD SOME RIDGE AND VALLEY EFFECTS INTO THE LOW
TEMPERATURES GRIDS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 156 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A DECK OF HIGH END MVFR CIGS CONTINUES TO PLAGUE MUCH OF EASTERN
KY...AND GIVEN THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS...SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE NIGHT. EXPECT THESE CIGS TO SLOWLY WEAR AWAY FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...BRINGING CLEARING VFR
CONDITIONS. ONCE SKIES CLEAR TOMORROW...EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO
REMAIN IN CONTROL WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JMW








000
FXUS63 KJKL 230805
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
405 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY BEARING DOWN ACROSS THE REGION...AS A
STRONG LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE OFF TO OUR EAST ALONG THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. EXPECT THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM. A UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY. HOWEVER...ALL MODELS ARE SUPPORTING THAT THIS
WAVE WILL LOSE CONSIDERABLE STRENGTH AS IT NEARS US...DUE TO THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN BECOMING INFLUENCED BY THE STRONG COASTAL LOW. AS
SUCH...DON/T EXPECT MUCH IMPACTS TO THE REGION OTHER THAN A FEW MORE
CLOUDS FRIDAY.

GIVEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE...ALL THE MODELS SHOWED EASTERN KY
CLEARING OUT AS OF YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...AND STAYING CLEAR INTO THIS
MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS HAS NOT HAPPENED. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
FROM THE LOW CONTINUES TO FLOW SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN KY...RESULTING
IN QUITE THE PERSISTENT BANK OF LOW END VFR AND HIGH END MVFR CLOUDS
CENTERED OVER OUR CWA AND POINTS TO THE NE. HOPEFULLY WITH THE
INFLUENCE OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING BEGINNING THIS MORNING...AS WELL
AS MOVEMENT OF THE LOW TO THE NE...THESE CLOUDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THE LACK OF MODEL
SUPPORT FOR ONGOING CONDITIONS...TRIED TO USE A BEST GUESS APPROACH
BASED ON THESE ABOVE FACTORS...IN WHICH CASE THE CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN
BREAKING UP JUST AFTER DAWN. WITHOUT THE AFFECT OF THESE
CLOUDS...TEMPS WOULD HAVE BEEN MUCH COOLER THIS MORNING...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FROST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER...CLOUDS HAVE KEPT THE TEMPS WELL ABOVE FREEZING...AND HAVE
PREVENTED ADEQUATE INVERSIONS. THE EXCEPTION IS SITE EKQ ON THE FAR
SW FRINGE OF THE CWA. HERE...ACCORDING TO THE SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS...CLEARING HAS LED TO COOLER TEMPS AND FOG /AS WELL AS
POSSIBLE FROST/ DEVELOPMENT. AS SUCH...IF ANY OF THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE CWA CLEARS OUT JUST BEFORE DAWN...IT WOULD BE POSSIBLE THAT
TEMPS DROP JUST ENOUGH AS TO ALLOW FOR SOME BRIEF FOG DEVELOPMENT
HERE TOO. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED PATCHY FOG AND FROST FOR MOSTLY
CLEAR VALLEY REGIONS BETWEEN NOW AND 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THEY
ALL SHIFT A TROUGH EAST AND OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE A LARGE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE BIG BEND AREA OF TEXAS. THIS RIDGE WILL THEN
EXPAND TO DOMINATE OUR FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED BEFORE
IT FLATTENS OUT A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND AND THE FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION BECOMES MORE ZONAL...FOR A TIME. THERE WILL BE A RESURGENCE
IN THE RIDGE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO A
TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD
THE GFS WITH THIS SO THAT THEY ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. AS
A RESULT...CONFIDENCE HAS IMPROVED THAT A BROAD TROUGH WILL BRUSH
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY BY MIDWEEK WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND SOME OF ITS
ASSOCIATED ENERGY PASSING OVER THE AREA TO CLOSE OUT THE FORECAST.
GIVEN THE IMPROVING MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED A GENERAL BLEND
FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT PASSING
THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS HIGH WILL MODERATE ALLOWING
FOR HIGHER TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE START OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK...PARTICULARLY ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SYSTEM TO THE
NORTHWEST - WHOSE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PUSH WARMER AIR INTO THIS
PART OF THE STATE. AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA...SHOWER...AND PERHAPS THUNDER...CHANCES WILL BE
ON THE RISE FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

THE CR GRID LOAD PROVED TO BE A PRETTY GOOD START WITH CHANGES MADE
MAINLY TO BETTER TIME THE HOURLY POPS TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST. DID ALSO ADD SOME RIDGE AND VALLEY EFFECTS INTO THE LOW
TEMPERATURES GRIDS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 156 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A DECK OF HIGH END MVFR CIGS CONTINUES TO PLAGUE MUCH OF EASTERN
KY...AND GIVEN THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS...SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE NIGHT. EXPECT THESE CIGS TO SLOWLY WEAR AWAY FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...BRINGING CLEARING VFR
CONDITIONS. ONCE SKIES CLEAR TOMORROW...EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO
REMAIN IN CONTROL WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JMW








000
FXUS63 KJKL 230805
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
405 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY BEARING DOWN ACROSS THE REGION...AS A
STRONG LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE OFF TO OUR EAST ALONG THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. EXPECT THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM. A UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY. HOWEVER...ALL MODELS ARE SUPPORTING THAT THIS
WAVE WILL LOSE CONSIDERABLE STRENGTH AS IT NEARS US...DUE TO THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN BECOMING INFLUENCED BY THE STRONG COASTAL LOW. AS
SUCH...DON/T EXPECT MUCH IMPACTS TO THE REGION OTHER THAN A FEW MORE
CLOUDS FRIDAY.

GIVEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE...ALL THE MODELS SHOWED EASTERN KY
CLEARING OUT AS OF YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...AND STAYING CLEAR INTO THIS
MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS HAS NOT HAPPENED. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
FROM THE LOW CONTINUES TO FLOW SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN KY...RESULTING
IN QUITE THE PERSISTENT BANK OF LOW END VFR AND HIGH END MVFR CLOUDS
CENTERED OVER OUR CWA AND POINTS TO THE NE. HOPEFULLY WITH THE
INFLUENCE OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING BEGINNING THIS MORNING...AS WELL
AS MOVEMENT OF THE LOW TO THE NE...THESE CLOUDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THE LACK OF MODEL
SUPPORT FOR ONGOING CONDITIONS...TRIED TO USE A BEST GUESS APPROACH
BASED ON THESE ABOVE FACTORS...IN WHICH CASE THE CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN
BREAKING UP JUST AFTER DAWN. WITHOUT THE AFFECT OF THESE
CLOUDS...TEMPS WOULD HAVE BEEN MUCH COOLER THIS MORNING...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FROST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER...CLOUDS HAVE KEPT THE TEMPS WELL ABOVE FREEZING...AND HAVE
PREVENTED ADEQUATE INVERSIONS. THE EXCEPTION IS SITE EKQ ON THE FAR
SW FRINGE OF THE CWA. HERE...ACCORDING TO THE SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS...CLEARING HAS LED TO COOLER TEMPS AND FOG /AS WELL AS
POSSIBLE FROST/ DEVELOPMENT. AS SUCH...IF ANY OF THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE CWA CLEARS OUT JUST BEFORE DAWN...IT WOULD BE POSSIBLE THAT
TEMPS DROP JUST ENOUGH AS TO ALLOW FOR SOME BRIEF FOG DEVELOPMENT
HERE TOO. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED PATCHY FOG AND FROST FOR MOSTLY
CLEAR VALLEY REGIONS BETWEEN NOW AND 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THEY
ALL SHIFT A TROUGH EAST AND OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE A LARGE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE BIG BEND AREA OF TEXAS. THIS RIDGE WILL THEN
EXPAND TO DOMINATE OUR FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED BEFORE
IT FLATTENS OUT A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND AND THE FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION BECOMES MORE ZONAL...FOR A TIME. THERE WILL BE A RESURGENCE
IN THE RIDGE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO A
TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD
THE GFS WITH THIS SO THAT THEY ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. AS
A RESULT...CONFIDENCE HAS IMPROVED THAT A BROAD TROUGH WILL BRUSH
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY BY MIDWEEK WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND SOME OF ITS
ASSOCIATED ENERGY PASSING OVER THE AREA TO CLOSE OUT THE FORECAST.
GIVEN THE IMPROVING MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED A GENERAL BLEND
FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT PASSING
THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS HIGH WILL MODERATE ALLOWING
FOR HIGHER TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE START OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK...PARTICULARLY ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SYSTEM TO THE
NORTHWEST - WHOSE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PUSH WARMER AIR INTO THIS
PART OF THE STATE. AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA...SHOWER...AND PERHAPS THUNDER...CHANCES WILL BE
ON THE RISE FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

THE CR GRID LOAD PROVED TO BE A PRETTY GOOD START WITH CHANGES MADE
MAINLY TO BETTER TIME THE HOURLY POPS TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST. DID ALSO ADD SOME RIDGE AND VALLEY EFFECTS INTO THE LOW
TEMPERATURES GRIDS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 156 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A DECK OF HIGH END MVFR CIGS CONTINUES TO PLAGUE MUCH OF EASTERN
KY...AND GIVEN THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS...SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE NIGHT. EXPECT THESE CIGS TO SLOWLY WEAR AWAY FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...BRINGING CLEARING VFR
CONDITIONS. ONCE SKIES CLEAR TOMORROW...EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO
REMAIN IN CONTROL WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JMW








000
FXUS63 KJKL 230745 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
345 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

PER LATEST IR IMAGERY AND HIGH RES GUIDANCE...HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER
THROUGHOUT CWA TO RETAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL LEFT A CHANCE FOR SOME PARTIAL CLEARING WEST
OF I-75 NEAR DAWN. SUBSEQUENTLY... KEPT A CHANCE FOR PATCHY VALLEY
FOG AND FROST IN THAT AREA NEAR DAWN. ALSO HAVE BUMPED UP OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR CLOUD COVER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

GIVEN RECENT INCREASE IN SKY COVER PER RECENT IR IMAGERY...EVEN IN THE
WESTERN MOST LOCATIONS...HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER THROUGH 06Z. BOTH
GFS/ECMWF SHOW A GOOD LL MOIST LAYER THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z SO HAVE
COMPROMISED BETWEEN PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MODEL OUTPUT. OTHER MAJOR
CHANGE WAS REDUCING THE AMOUNT OF FROST IN THE GRIDS. GIVEN CURRENT
DEW POINT TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE 40S AND MOSTLY OVERCAST SKIES...DO
NOT THINK THERE WILL BE MUST FROST EXCEPT IN THE FAR WESTERN
LOCATIONS TOWARDS DAWN. WE DID SEE SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER LAST
NIGHT...SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
UPDATE IF WARRANTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

AN UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST IS BRINGING WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE TO THE AREA. THIS HAS BEEN KEEPING THINGS CLOUDY AND FAIRLY
DAMP FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE JACKSON WEATHER OFFICE IS
FLIRTING WITH SETTING A RECORD FOR THE MIN HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE
DAY. THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE IS 51 AND THE HIGHEST
TEMPERATURE UP THROUGH 2:50 PM IS 50 DEGREES. THE UPPER LOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY UP THE EAST COAST AND IS FORECAST TO BE OFF
THE NORTHEASTERN SEABOARD BY FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK SHORT WAVE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD DO LITTLE
MORE THAN BRING SOME INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID CLOUDS.

THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS A BIT TRICKY BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY
OF THE CLOUD FORECAST. THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY MORE
PERSISTENT THAN WHAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING...SO HAVE
SLOWED DOWN THE CLOUDS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
THEN HAVE AN EFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS WELL. FOR THE LAST
COUPLE OF NIGHTS...FROST HAS BEEN PRETTY MUCH NON EXISTENT. THE
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS HAVE DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S. WITH AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S...THE CHANCE FOR FROST TO FORM IS NORMALLY PRETTY
LOW. WITH ALL THIS IS MIND...JUST PUT SOME PATCHY VALLEY FROST IN THE
FORECAST FOR VALLY LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF I 75. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY WARM ENOUGH SO THAT FROST WILL
NOT OCCUR.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THEY
ALL SHIFT A TROUGH EAST AND OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE A LARGE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE BIG BEND AREA OF TEXAS. THIS RIDGE WILL THEN
EXPAND TO DOMINATE OUR FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED BEFORE
IT FLATTENS OUT A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND AND THE FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION BECOMES MORE ZONAL...FOR A TIME. THERE WILL BE A RESURGENCE
IN THE RIDGE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO A
TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD
THE GFS WITH THIS SO THAT THEY ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. AS
A RESULT...CONFIDENCE HAS IMPROVED THAT A BROAD TROUGH WILL BRUSH
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY BY MIDWEEK WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND SOME OF ITS
ASSOCIATED ENERGY PASSING OVER THE AREA TO CLOSE OUT THE FORECAST.
GIVEN THE IMPROVING MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED A GENERAL BLEND
FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT PASSING
THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS HIGH WILL MODERATE ALLOWING
FOR HIGHER TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE START OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK...PARTICULARLY ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SYSTEM TO THE
NORTHWEST - WHOSE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PUSH WARMER AIR INTO THIS
PART OF THE STATE. AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA...SHOWER...AND PERHAPS THUNDER...CHANCES WILL BE
ON THE RISE FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

THE CR GRID LOAD PROVED TO BE A PRETTY GOOD START WITH CHANGES MADE
MAINLY TO BETTER TIME THE HOURLY POPS TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST. DID ALSO ADD SOME RIDGE AND VALLEY EFFECTS INTO THE LOW
TEMPERATURES GRIDS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 156 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A DECK OF HIGH END MVFR CIGS CONTINUES TO PLAGUE MUCH OF EASTERN
KY...AND GIVEN THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS...SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE NIGHT. EXPECT THESE CIGS TO SLOWLY WEAR AWAY FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...BRINGING CLEARING VFR
CONDITIONS. ONCE SKIES CLEAR TOMORROW...EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO
REMAIN IN CONTROL WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JMW






000
FXUS63 KJKL 230558
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
158 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

PER LATEST IR IMAGERY AND HIGH RES GUIDANCE...HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER
THROUGHOUT CWA TO RETAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL LEFT A CHANCE FOR SOME PARTIAL CLEARING WEST
OF I-75 NEAR DAWN. SUBSEQUENTLY... KEPT A CHANCE FOR PATCHY VALLEY
FOG AND FROST IN THAT AREA NEAR DAWN. ALSO HAVE BUMPED UP OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR CLOUD COVER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

GIVEN RECENT INCREASE IN SKY COVER PER RECENT IR IMAGERY...EVEN IN THE
WESTERN MOST LOCATIONS...HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER THROUGH 06Z. BOTH
GFS/ECMWF SHOW A GOOD LL MOIST LAYER THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z SO HAVE
COMPROMISED BETWEEN PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MODEL OUTPUT. OTHER MAJOR
CHANGE WAS REDUCING THE AMOUNT OF FROST IN THE GRIDS. GIVEN CURRENT
DEW POINT TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE 40S AND MOSTLY OVERCAST SKIES...DO
NOT THINK THERE WILL BE MUST FROST EXCEPT IN THE FAR WESTERN
LOCATIONS TOWARDS DAWN. WE DID SEE SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER LAST
NIGHT...SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
UPDATE IF WARRANTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

AN UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST IS BRINGING WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE TO THE AREA. THIS HAS BEEN KEEPING THINGS CLOUDY AND FAIRLY
DAMP FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE JACKSON WEATHER OFFICE IS
FLIRTING WITH SETTING A RECORD FOR THE MIN HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE
DAY. THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE IS 51 AND THE HIGHEST
TEMPERATURE UP THROUGH 2:50 PM IS 50 DEGREES. THE UPPER LOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY UP THE EAST COAST AND IS FORECAST TO BE OFF
THE NORTHEASTERN SEABOARD BY FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK SHORT WAVE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD DO LITTLE
MORE THAN BRING SOME INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID CLOUDS.

THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS A BIT TRICKY BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY
OF THE CLOUD FORECAST. THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY MORE
PERSISTENT THAN WHAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING...SO HAVE
SLOWED DOWN THE CLOUDS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
THEN HAVE AN EFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS WELL. FOR THE LAST
COUPLE OF NIGHTS...FROST HAS BEEN PRETTY MUCH NON EXISTENT. THE
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS HAVE DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S. WITH AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S...THE CHANCE FOR FROST TO FORM IS NORMALLY PRETTY
LOW. WITH ALL THIS IS MIND...JUST PUT SOME PATCHY VALLEY FROST IN THE
FORECAST FOR VALLY LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF I 75. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY WARM ENOUGH SO THAT FROST WILL
NOT OCCUR.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND NORTHERN MEXICO AND AN UPPER LOW
CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO BE DEPARTING THE APPALACHIANS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY ON FRIDAY. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO
THE APPALACHIANS TO START THE PERIOD.

FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER SYSTEM OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE MARITIMES WITH THE MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR ANOTHER UPPER UPPER LEVEL LOW TO TRACK TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND. A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALSO TRACK TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND DURING THIS TIME...WITH A TRIALING COLD FRONT WASHING OUT AS
IT APPROACHES THE AREA. THE RIDGE INITIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THIS TIME AND BECOME CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH
THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND KY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NW FLOW ALOFT. THE
SHORTWAVES WORKING THROUGH FROM FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING SHOULD
BRING AN INCREASE IN MAINLY HIGH AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THE
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND VALLEY FOG ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
FROM THE MS VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FROM SUN INTO MON.
MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE FROM THE WESTERN CONUS INTO
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US. THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER A BIT WITH THE
DETAILS WITH A SFC LOW TRACKING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHEAST
INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC DURING THIS TIME...WITH A TRIALING COLD
FRONT GRADUALLY WORKING INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. THE LAST COUPLE
OF ECMWF RUNS ARE SHARPER WITH THE SHORTWAVE...OR AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN PART OF IT...AND DEVELOP A SFC WAVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY. THE ECMWF RUNS TRACK WITH LOW WEST
OF THE REGION...BUT VARY FROM RUN TO RUN. MEANWHILE THE LATEST GFS
RUN SHEARS THE FRONT OUT ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD.

CONFIDENCE IN TIMING DECREASES LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH THIS. AS THE
SFC RIDGE REACHES THE EASTERN SEABOARD...RETURN FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS...FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...TO NEAR 70 IF NOT INTO THE
70S. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 156 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A DECK OF HIGH END MVFR CIGS CONTINUES TO PLAGUE MUCH OF EASTERN
KY...AND GIVEN THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS...SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE NIGHT. EXPECT THESE CIGS TO SLOWLY WEAR AWAY FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...BRINGING CLEARING VFR
CONDITIONS. ONCE SKIES CLEAR TOMORROW...EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO
REMAIN IN CONTROL WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JMW








000
FXUS63 KJKL 230251
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1051 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

PER LATEST IR IMAGERY AND HIGH RES GUIDANCE...HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER
THROUGHOUT CWA TO RETAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL LEFT A CHANCE FOR SOME PARTIAL CLEARING WEST
OF I-75 NEAR DAWN. SUBSEQUENTLY... KEPT A CHANCE FOR PATCHY VALLEY
FOG AND FROST IN THAT AREA NEAR DAWN. ALSO HAVE BUMPED UP OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR CLOUD COVER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

GIVEN RECENT INCREASE IN SKY COVER PER RECENT IR IMAGERY...EVEN IN THE
WESTERN MOST LOCATIONS...HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER THROUGH 06Z. BOTH
GFS/ECMWF SHOW A GOOD LL MOIST LAYER THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z SO HAVE
COMPROMISED BETWEEN PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MODEL OUTPUT. OTHER MAJOR
CHANGE WAS REDUCING THE AMOUNT OF FROST IN THE GRIDS. GIVEN CURRENT
DEW POINT TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE 40S AND MOSTLY OVERCAST SKIES...DO
NOT THINK THERE WILL BE MUST FROST EXCEPT IN THE FAR WESTERN
LOCATIONS TOWARDS DAWN. WE DID SEE SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER LAST
NIGHT...SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
UPDATE IF WARRANTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

AN UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST IS BRINGING WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE TO THE AREA. THIS HAS BEEN KEEPING THINGS CLOUDY AND FAIRLY
DAMP FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE JACKSON WEATHER OFFICE IS
FLIRTING WITH SETTING A RECORD FOR THE MIN HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE
DAY. THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE IS 51 AND THE HIGHEST
TEMPERATURE UP THROUGH 2:50 PM IS 50 DEGREES. THE UPPER LOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY UP THE EAST COAST AND IS FORECAST TO BE OFF
THE NORTHEASTERN SEABOARD BY FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK SHORT WAVE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD DO LITTLE
MORE THAN BRING SOME INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID CLOUDS.

THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS A BIT TRICKY BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY
OF THE CLOUD FORECAST. THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY MORE
PERSISTENT THAN WHAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING...SO HAVE
SLOWED DOWN THE CLOUDS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
THEN HAVE AN EFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS WELL. FOR THE LAST
COUPLE OF NIGHTS...FROST HAS BEEN PRETTY MUCH NON EXISTENT. THE
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS HAVE DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S. WITH AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S...THE CHANCE FOR FROST TO FORM IS NORMALLY PRETTY
LOW. WITH ALL THIS IS MIND...JUST PUT SOME PATCHY VALLEY FROST IN THE
FORECAST FOR VALLY LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF I 75. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY WARM ENOUGH SO THAT FROST WILL
NOT OCCUR.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND NORTHERN MEXICO AND AN UPPER LOW
CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO BE DEPARTING THE APPALACHIANS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY ON FRIDAY. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO
THE APPALACHIANS TO START THE PERIOD.

FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER SYSTEM OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE MARITIMES WITH THE MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR ANOTHER UPPER UPPER LEVEL LOW TO TRACK TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND. A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALSO TRACK TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND DURING THIS TIME...WITH A TRIALING COLD FRONT WASHING OUT AS
IT APPROACHES THE AREA. THE RIDGE INITIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THIS TIME AND BECOME CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH
THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND KY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NW FLOW ALOFT. THE
SHORTWAVES WORKING THROUGH FROM FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING SHOULD
BRING AN INCREASE IN MAINLY HIGH AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THE
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND VALLEY FOG ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
FROM THE MS VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FROM SUN INTO MON.
MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE FROM THE WESTERN CONUS INTO
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US. THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER A BIT WITH THE
DETAILS WITH A SFC LOW TRACKING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHEAST
INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC DURING THIS TIME...WITH A TRIALING COLD
FRONT GRADUALLY WORKING INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. THE LAST COUPLE
OF ECMWF RUNS ARE SHARPER WITH THE SHORTWAVE...OR AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN PART OF IT...AND DEVELOP A SFC WAVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY. THE ECMWF RUNS TRACK WITH LOW WEST
OF THE REGION...BUT VARY FROM RUN TO RUN. MEANWHILE THE LATEST GFS
RUN SHEARS THE FRONT OUT ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD.

CONFIDENCE IN TIMING DECREASES LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH THIS. AS THE
SFC RIDGE REACHES THE EASTERN SEABOARD...RETURN FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS...FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...TO NEAR 70 IF NOT INTO THE
70S. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR/MVFR STRATOCU WILL ONLY GRADUALLY BREAK UP FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC...ALLOWING
FOR CEILINGS TO DROP DOWN TO MVFR AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES AS WE COOL
OFF TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AT ALL LOCATIONS LATER
THURSDAY MORNING...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN








000
FXUS63 KJKL 222354 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
754 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

GIVEN RECENT INCREASE IN SKY COVER PER RECENT IR IMAGERY...EVEN IN THE
WESTERN MOST LOCATIONS...HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER THROUGH 06Z. BOTH
GFS/ECMWF SHOW A GOOD LL MOIST LAYER THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z SO HAVE
COMPROMISED BETWEEN PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MODEL OUTPUT. OTHER MAJOR
CHANGE WAS REDUCING THE AMOUNT OF FROST IN THE GRIDS. GIVEN CURRENT
DEW POINT TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE 40S AND MOSTLY OVERCAST SKIES...DO
NOT THINK THERE WILL BE MUST FROST EXCEPT IN THE FAR WESTERN
LOCATIONS TOWARDS DAWN. WE DID SEE SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER LAST
NIGHT...SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
UPDATE IF WARRANTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

AN UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST IS BRINGING WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE TO THE AREA. THIS HAS BEEN KEEPING THINGS CLOUDY AND FAIRLY
DAMP FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE JACKSON WEATHER OFFICE IS
FLIRTING WITH SETTING A RECORD FOR THE MIN HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE
DAY. THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE IS 51 AND THE HIGHEST
TEMPERATURE UP THROUGH 2:50 PM IS 50 DEGREES. THE UPPER LOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY UP THE EAST COAST AND IS FORECAST TO BE OFF
THE NORTHEASTERN SEABOARD BY FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK SHORT WAVE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD DO LITTLE
MORE THAN BRING SOME INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID CLOUDS.

THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS A BIT TRICKY BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY
OF THE CLOUD FORECAST. THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY MORE
PERSISTENT THAN WHAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING...SO HAVE
SLOWED DOWN THE CLOUDS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
THEN HAVE AN EFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS WELL. FOR THE LAST
COUPLE OF NIGHTS...FROST HAS BEEN PRETTY MUCH NON EXISTENT. THE
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS HAVE DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S. WITH AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S...THE CHANCE FOR FROST TO FORM IS NORMALLY PRETTY
LOW. WITH ALL THIS IS MIND...JUST PUT SOME PATCHY VALLEY FROST IN THE
FORECAST FOR VALLY LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF I 75. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY WARM ENOUGH SO THAT FROST WILL
NOT OCCUR.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND NORTHERN MEXICO AND AN UPPER LOW
CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO BE DEPARTING THE APPALACHIANS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY ON FRIDAY. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO
THE APPALACHIANS TO START THE PERIOD.

FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER SYSTEM OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE MARITIMES WITH THE MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR ANOTHER UPPER UPPER LEVEL LOW TO TRACK TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND. A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALSO TRACK TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND DURING THIS TIME...WITH A TRIALING COLD FRONT WASHING OUT AS
IT APPROACHES THE AREA. THE RIDGE INITIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THIS TIME AND BECOME CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH
THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND KY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NW FLOW ALOFT. THE
SHORTWAVES WORKING THROUGH FROM FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING SHOULD
BRING AN INCREASE IN MAINLY HIGH AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THE
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND VALLEY FOG ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
FROM THE MS VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FROM SUN INTO MON.
MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE FROM THE WESTERN CONUS INTO
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US. THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER A BIT WITH THE
DETAILS WITH A SFC LOW TRACKING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHEAST
INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC DURING THIS TIME...WITH A TRIALING COLD
FRONT GRADUALLY WORKING INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. THE LAST COUPLE
OF ECMWF RUNS ARE SHARPER WITH THE SHORTWAVE...OR AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN PART OF IT...AND DEVELOP A SFC WAVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY. THE ECMWF RUNS TRACK WITH LOW WEST
OF THE REGION...BUT VARY FROM RUN TO RUN. MEANWHILE THE LATEST GFS
RUN SHEARS THE FRONT OUT ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD.

CONFIDENCE IN TIMING DECREASES LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH THIS. AS THE
SFC RIDGE REACHES THE EASTERN SEABOARD...RETURN FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS...FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...TO NEAR 70 IF NOT INTO THE
70S. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR/MVFR STRATOCU WILL ONLY GRADUALLY BREAK UP FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC...ALLOWING
FOR CEILINGS TO DROP DOWN TO MVFR AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES AS WE COOL
OFF TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AT ALL LOCATIONS LATER
THURSDAY MORNING...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN










000
FXUS63 KJKL 222354 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
754 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

GIVEN RECENT INCREASE IN SKY COVER PER RECENT IR IMAGERY...EVEN IN THE
WESTERN MOST LOCATIONS...HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER THROUGH 06Z. BOTH
GFS/ECMWF SHOW A GOOD LL MOIST LAYER THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z SO HAVE
COMPROMISED BETWEEN PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MODEL OUTPUT. OTHER MAJOR
CHANGE WAS REDUCING THE AMOUNT OF FROST IN THE GRIDS. GIVEN CURRENT
DEW POINT TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE 40S AND MOSTLY OVERCAST SKIES...DO
NOT THINK THERE WILL BE MUST FROST EXCEPT IN THE FAR WESTERN
LOCATIONS TOWARDS DAWN. WE DID SEE SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER LAST
NIGHT...SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
UPDATE IF WARRANTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

AN UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST IS BRINGING WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE TO THE AREA. THIS HAS BEEN KEEPING THINGS CLOUDY AND FAIRLY
DAMP FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE JACKSON WEATHER OFFICE IS
FLIRTING WITH SETTING A RECORD FOR THE MIN HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE
DAY. THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE IS 51 AND THE HIGHEST
TEMPERATURE UP THROUGH 2:50 PM IS 50 DEGREES. THE UPPER LOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY UP THE EAST COAST AND IS FORECAST TO BE OFF
THE NORTHEASTERN SEABOARD BY FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK SHORT WAVE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD DO LITTLE
MORE THAN BRING SOME INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID CLOUDS.

THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS A BIT TRICKY BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY
OF THE CLOUD FORECAST. THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY MORE
PERSISTENT THAN WHAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING...SO HAVE
SLOWED DOWN THE CLOUDS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
THEN HAVE AN EFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS WELL. FOR THE LAST
COUPLE OF NIGHTS...FROST HAS BEEN PRETTY MUCH NON EXISTENT. THE
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS HAVE DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S. WITH AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S...THE CHANCE FOR FROST TO FORM IS NORMALLY PRETTY
LOW. WITH ALL THIS IS MIND...JUST PUT SOME PATCHY VALLEY FROST IN THE
FORECAST FOR VALLY LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF I 75. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY WARM ENOUGH SO THAT FROST WILL
NOT OCCUR.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND NORTHERN MEXICO AND AN UPPER LOW
CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO BE DEPARTING THE APPALACHIANS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY ON FRIDAY. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO
THE APPALACHIANS TO START THE PERIOD.

FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER SYSTEM OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE MARITIMES WITH THE MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR ANOTHER UPPER UPPER LEVEL LOW TO TRACK TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND. A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALSO TRACK TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND DURING THIS TIME...WITH A TRIALING COLD FRONT WASHING OUT AS
IT APPROACHES THE AREA. THE RIDGE INITIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THIS TIME AND BECOME CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH
THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND KY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NW FLOW ALOFT. THE
SHORTWAVES WORKING THROUGH FROM FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING SHOULD
BRING AN INCREASE IN MAINLY HIGH AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THE
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND VALLEY FOG ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
FROM THE MS VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FROM SUN INTO MON.
MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE FROM THE WESTERN CONUS INTO
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US. THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER A BIT WITH THE
DETAILS WITH A SFC LOW TRACKING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHEAST
INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC DURING THIS TIME...WITH A TRIALING COLD
FRONT GRADUALLY WORKING INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. THE LAST COUPLE
OF ECMWF RUNS ARE SHARPER WITH THE SHORTWAVE...OR AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN PART OF IT...AND DEVELOP A SFC WAVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY. THE ECMWF RUNS TRACK WITH LOW WEST
OF THE REGION...BUT VARY FROM RUN TO RUN. MEANWHILE THE LATEST GFS
RUN SHEARS THE FRONT OUT ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD.

CONFIDENCE IN TIMING DECREASES LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH THIS. AS THE
SFC RIDGE REACHES THE EASTERN SEABOARD...RETURN FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS...FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...TO NEAR 70 IF NOT INTO THE
70S. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR/MVFR STRATOCU WILL ONLY GRADUALLY BREAK UP FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC...ALLOWING
FOR CEILINGS TO DROP DOWN TO MVFR AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES AS WE COOL
OFF TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AT ALL LOCATIONS LATER
THURSDAY MORNING...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN










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