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000
FXUS63 KJKL 242352
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
752 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 752 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL
TRENDS. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM IS FINALLY MAKING ITS WAY
INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY. STILL EXPECTING THE RAIN TO MOVE INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY NEAR DAWN. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT MID AFTERNOON WILL
DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ENE NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. IT WILL PULL GULF OF
MEXICO MOISTURE NORTHWARD AS IT APPROACHES...WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AS THE WARMER AND MORE HUMID
AIR ARRIVES ALOFT. THIS BAND OF PRECIP WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST
ON FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY IN THE MODELS CONCERNING
TIMING OF THIS PRECIP...AND A MODEL COMPROMISE WAS USED. VARIATION IN
THE TIMING WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE POP FOR FRIDAY...AND SOME
ADJUSTMENT MAY BE NECESSARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER BEHIND THE
INITIAL ROUND...BUT THEY WILL COME TO AN END AFTER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING THE DAY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE
SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY...BRINGING DECREASING CLOUDS AND DRY WEATHER WHICH
WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGING PATTERN
ALOFT...MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION AS A
CLOSED LOW STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY...AND
ANOTHER CLOSED LOW GAINS STRENGTH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. AS MUCH
OF KY REMAINS IN THIS RIDGING PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXPECT
WINDS TO GENERALLY REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AND WARM MOIST AIR TO BE
ADVECTED IN. THIS WILL MEAN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 FOR
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BY MONDAY...THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE PLAINS
WILL HAVE MOVED EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WHERE IT WILL
BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE STATIONARY AND BROADEN. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE CO-LOCATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT WILL FIND ITSELF ACROSS KY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...ALSO
SUPPORTING THE ENHANCED TEMPERATURES. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE LOW
WILL BEGIN SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD...WITH THE COLD FRONT REACHING KY
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...STALLING...AND THEN PROGRESSING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

BASED ON THE LATEST GFS SOUNDINGS...MOISTURE WILL PUNCTURE THE AREA
IN THE FORM OF HIGH CLOUDS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. DRY AIR WILL
STILL BE ABUNDANT...HOWEVER...IN THE LOW LEVELS. MOISTURE WILL THEN
WORK ITS WAY IN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF PRECIP IS STILL SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN AS THE OVERALL AGREEMENT OF THE MODELS BEGINS TO
DETERIORATE FROM THIS POINT FORWARD. WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST THAT THIS WILL
HAMPER SOME OF OUR CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP EARLY ON. BUT
SHOULD SEE SOME GOOD CHANCES OF FORWARD PROGRESSION AND WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE BY LATE MONDAY AND THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. GENERALLY LEFT
THE 12 HOUR POPS UP TO THE ALLBLEND BASED ON UNCERTAINTY IN THE
MODEL AGREEMENT...THOUGH MATCHED UP FAIRLY WELL WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES. BASED ON THE LOWS TRAJECTORY THROUGH /OR NEAR TO/ THE STATE
OF KY...WE COULD BE IN LINE TO SEE SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
CONTINUED POPS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL.

COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH WITH TEMPS
DROPPING BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND SURFACE LOW...WILL THEN BEGIN TO ROTATE ACROSS
THE EAST CENTRAL CONUS...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES DEVELOPING AND
ROTATING WITHIN THE LOW...BUT MAKING NO EASTWARD PROGRESSION. IF
THIS HOLDS TRUE...WE CAN EXPECT A VERY WET END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH ONLY BRIEF BREAKS IN PRECIP FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ON. AS
WAS STATED BEFORE...THE TIMING AND SET UP OF THESE SHORTWAVES WILL
BE WHAT DRIVES OUR PRECIP COVERAGE...SO WILL CONTINUE TO USE A
CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS THIS FAR OUT. EITHER WAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO
CONTINUE COOLING...FALLING WELL BELOW NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. COOLING TEMPERATURES AND LOSS OF INSTABILITY BY WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CUT OFF ANY FURTHER THUNDERSTORM THREATS FOR THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 24Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 752 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

VFR WILL PERSIST UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. AFTER ABOUT 08Z A BAND OF
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST...REACHING THE EASTERN TIP OF KY BY AROUND 12Z. A REDUCTION
TO MOSTLY MVFR AND AREAS OF IFR IS EXPECTED WITH THE AREA OF PRECIP.
THE PRECIP WILL START TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER ABOUT
10Z...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE
FAIRLY LIGHT UNTIL NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD...WHEN PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WIND...WITH GUSTS FROM THE WEST
STARTING TO TOP 20 KTS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJ
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...HAL/JJ







000
FXUS63 KJKL 242006
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
406 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT MID AFTERNOON WILL
DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ENE NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. IT WILL PULL GULF OF
MEXICO MOISTURE NORTHWARD AS IT APPROACHES...WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AS THE WARMER AND MORE HUMID
AIR ARRIVES ALOFT. THIS BAND OF PRECIP WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST
ON FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY IN THE MODELS CONCERNING
TIMING OF THIS PRECIP...AND A MODEL COMPROMISE WAS USED. VARIATION IN
THE TIMING WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE POP FOR FRIDAY...AND SOME
ADJUSTMENT MAY BE NECESSARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER BEHIND THE
INITIAL ROUND...BUT THEY WILL COME TO AN END AFTER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING THE DAY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE
SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY...BRINGING DECREASING CLOUDS AND DRY WEATHER WHICH
WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGING PATTERN
ALOFT...MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION AS A
CLOSED LOW STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY...AND
ANOTHER CLOSED LOW GAINS STRENGTH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. AS MUCH
OF KY REMAINS IN THIS RIDGING PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXPECT
WINDS TO GENERALLY REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AND WARM MOIST AIR TO BE
ADVECTED IN. THIS WILL MEAN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 FOR
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BY MONDAY...THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE PLAINS
WILL HAVE MOVED EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WHERE IT WILL
BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE STATIONARY AND BROADEN. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE CO-LOCATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT WILL FIND ITSELF ACROSS KY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...ALSO
SUPPORTING THE ENHANCED TEMPERATURES. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE LOW
WILL BEGIN SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD...WITH THE COLD FRONT REACHING KY
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...STALLING...AND THEN PROGRESSING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

BASED ON THE LATEST GFS SOUNDINGS...MOISTURE WILL PUNCTURE THE AREA
IN THE FORM OF HIGH CLOUDS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. DRY AIR WILL
STILL BE ABUNDANT...HOWEVER...IN THE LOW LEVELS. MOISTURE WILL THEN
WORK ITS WAY IN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF PRECIP IS STILL SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN AS THE OVERALL AGREEMENT OF THE MODELS BEGINS TO
DETERIORATE FROM THIS POINT FORWARD. WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST THAT THIS WILL
HAMPER SOME OF OUR CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP EARLY ON. BUT
SHOULD SEE SOME GOOD CHANCES OF FORWARD PROGRESSION AND WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE BY LATE MONDAY AND THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. GENERALLY LEFT
THE 12 HOUR POPS UP TO THE ALLBLEND BASED ON UNCERTAINTY IN THE
MODEL AGREEMENT...THOUGH MATCHED UP FAIRLY WELL WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES. BASED ON THE LOWS TRAJECTORY THROUGH /OR NEAR TO/ THE STATE
OF KY...WE COULD BE IN LINE TO SEE SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
CONTINUED POPS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL.

COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH WITH TEMPS
DROPPING BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND SURFACE LOW...WILL THEN BEGIN TO ROTATE ACROSS
THE EAST CENTRAL CONUS...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES DEVELOPING AND
ROTATING WITHIN THE LOW...BUT MAKING NO EASTWARD PROGRESSION. IF
THIS HOLDS TRUE...WE CAN EXPECT A VERY WET END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH ONLY BRIEF BREAKS IN PRECIP FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ON. AS
WAS STATED BEFORE...THE TIMING AND SET UP OF THESE SHORTWAVES WILL
BE WHAT DRIVES OUR PRECIP COVERAGE...SO WILL CONTINUE TO USE A
CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS THIS FAR OUT. EITHER WAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO
CONTINUE COOLING...FALLING WELL BELOW NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. COOLING TEMPERATURES AND LOSS OF INSTABILITY BY WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CUT OFF ANY FURTHER THUNDERSTORM THREATS FOR THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 233 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

VFR WILL PERSIST UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. AFTER ABOUT 08Z A BAND OF
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST...REACHING THE EASTERN TIP OF KY BY AROUND 12Z. A REDUCTION
TO MOSTLY MVFR AND AREAS OF IFR IS EXPECTED WITH THE AREA OF PRECIP.
THE PRECIP WILL START TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER ABOUT
10Z...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE
FAIRLY LIGHT UNTIL NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD...WHEN PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WIND...WITH GUSTS FROM THE WEST
STARTING TO TOP 20 KTS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...HAL







000
FXUS63 KJKL 242006
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
406 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT MID AFTERNOON WILL
DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ENE NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. IT WILL PULL GULF OF
MEXICO MOISTURE NORTHWARD AS IT APPROACHES...WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AS THE WARMER AND MORE HUMID
AIR ARRIVES ALOFT. THIS BAND OF PRECIP WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST
ON FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY IN THE MODELS CONCERNING
TIMING OF THIS PRECIP...AND A MODEL COMPROMISE WAS USED. VARIATION IN
THE TIMING WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE POP FOR FRIDAY...AND SOME
ADJUSTMENT MAY BE NECESSARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER BEHIND THE
INITIAL ROUND...BUT THEY WILL COME TO AN END AFTER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING THE DAY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE
SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY...BRINGING DECREASING CLOUDS AND DRY WEATHER WHICH
WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGING PATTERN
ALOFT...MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION AS A
CLOSED LOW STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY...AND
ANOTHER CLOSED LOW GAINS STRENGTH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. AS MUCH
OF KY REMAINS IN THIS RIDGING PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXPECT
WINDS TO GENERALLY REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AND WARM MOIST AIR TO BE
ADVECTED IN. THIS WILL MEAN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 FOR
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BY MONDAY...THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE PLAINS
WILL HAVE MOVED EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WHERE IT WILL
BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE STATIONARY AND BROADEN. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE CO-LOCATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT WILL FIND ITSELF ACROSS KY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...ALSO
SUPPORTING THE ENHANCED TEMPERATURES. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE LOW
WILL BEGIN SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD...WITH THE COLD FRONT REACHING KY
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...STALLING...AND THEN PROGRESSING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

BASED ON THE LATEST GFS SOUNDINGS...MOISTURE WILL PUNCTURE THE AREA
IN THE FORM OF HIGH CLOUDS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. DRY AIR WILL
STILL BE ABUNDANT...HOWEVER...IN THE LOW LEVELS. MOISTURE WILL THEN
WORK ITS WAY IN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF PRECIP IS STILL SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN AS THE OVERALL AGREEMENT OF THE MODELS BEGINS TO
DETERIORATE FROM THIS POINT FORWARD. WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST THAT THIS WILL
HAMPER SOME OF OUR CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP EARLY ON. BUT
SHOULD SEE SOME GOOD CHANCES OF FORWARD PROGRESSION AND WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE BY LATE MONDAY AND THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. GENERALLY LEFT
THE 12 HOUR POPS UP TO THE ALLBLEND BASED ON UNCERTAINTY IN THE
MODEL AGREEMENT...THOUGH MATCHED UP FAIRLY WELL WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES. BASED ON THE LOWS TRAJECTORY THROUGH /OR NEAR TO/ THE STATE
OF KY...WE COULD BE IN LINE TO SEE SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
CONTINUED POPS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL.

COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH WITH TEMPS
DROPPING BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND SURFACE LOW...WILL THEN BEGIN TO ROTATE ACROSS
THE EAST CENTRAL CONUS...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES DEVELOPING AND
ROTATING WITHIN THE LOW...BUT MAKING NO EASTWARD PROGRESSION. IF
THIS HOLDS TRUE...WE CAN EXPECT A VERY WET END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH ONLY BRIEF BREAKS IN PRECIP FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ON. AS
WAS STATED BEFORE...THE TIMING AND SET UP OF THESE SHORTWAVES WILL
BE WHAT DRIVES OUR PRECIP COVERAGE...SO WILL CONTINUE TO USE A
CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS THIS FAR OUT. EITHER WAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO
CONTINUE COOLING...FALLING WELL BELOW NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. COOLING TEMPERATURES AND LOSS OF INSTABILITY BY WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CUT OFF ANY FURTHER THUNDERSTORM THREATS FOR THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 233 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

VFR WILL PERSIST UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. AFTER ABOUT 08Z A BAND OF
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST...REACHING THE EASTERN TIP OF KY BY AROUND 12Z. A REDUCTION
TO MOSTLY MVFR AND AREAS OF IFR IS EXPECTED WITH THE AREA OF PRECIP.
THE PRECIP WILL START TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER ABOUT
10Z...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE
FAIRLY LIGHT UNTIL NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD...WHEN PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WIND...WITH GUSTS FROM THE WEST
STARTING TO TOP 20 KTS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...HAL








000
FXUS63 KJKL 241952
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
352 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 233 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

UPDATED TO BLEND THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS INTO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST.
NO SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES WERE MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 937 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MORE EXTENSIVE THAN WAS FORECAST THIS MORNING...AND
HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS. THEY WILL BE ON THE DECLINE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH TODAY. HOWEVER...THE TEMPERATURE CLIMB WILL BE SLOWED...
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. HAVE TRIMMED BACK FORECAST MAX TEMPS A LITTLE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 751 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND SKY COVER
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. THE NAM12
SOLUTION WAS PREFERRED WITH ITS NORMAL RELIABILITY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL KEEP THE WEATHER OF EASTERN KENTUCKY DRY AND WARM TODAY THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE CLIMBING INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS TODAY...AS LIGHT WINDS AND DRY
AIR ALLOW FOR MAXIMIZED DAY TIME HEATING. THE INITIAL FORECAST ISSUE
IN THE SHORT TERM WILL IN FACT BE THE DRY WEATHER. LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND FUEL STICK MOISTURE VALUES WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED WILD
FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OUR NEXT ISSUE OF NOTE IN THE
FORECAST WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE LATEST MODELS ARE BRINGING A FAST MOVING COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. AS THIS FRONT TAPS INTO GULF MOISTURE ON ITS EASTWARD
TREK...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE
ALONG IT. OUR ONE SAVING GRACE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ITS
TIMING...AS THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM FORMATION. THIS SHOULD KEEP
CHANCES OF THUNDER AT A MINIMUM BOTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF
YEAR...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S ACROSS THE BOARD. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL A BIT CLOSER TO BUT LIKELY STILL A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH MAX VALUES IN THE LOWER 70S EXPECTED. THE PRESENCE OF
CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE THE REASON FOR THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGING PATTERN
ALOFT...MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION AS A
CLOSED LOW STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY...AND
ANOTHER CLOSED LOW GAINS STRENGTH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. AS MUCH
OF KY REMAINS IN THIS RIDGING PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXPECT
WINDS TO GENERALLY REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AND WARM MOIST AIR TO BE
ADVECTED IN. THIS WILL MEAN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 FOR
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BY MONDAY...THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE PLAINS
WILL HAVE MOVED EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WHERE IT WILL
BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE STATIONARY AND BROADEN. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE CO-LOCATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT WILL FIND ITSELF ACROSS KY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...ALSO
SUPPORTING THE ENHANCED TEMPERATURES. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE LOW
WILL BEGIN SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD...WITH THE COLD FRONT REACHING KY
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...STALLING...AND THEN PROGRESSING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

BASED ON THE LATEST GFS SOUNDINGS...MOISTURE WILL PUNCTURE THE AREA
IN THE FORM OF HIGH CLOUDS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. DRY AIR WILL
STILL BE ABUNDANT...HOWEVER...IN THE LOW LEVELS. MOISTURE WILL THEN
WORK ITS WAY IN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF PRECIP IS STILL SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN AS THE OVERALL AGREEMENT OF THE MODELS BEGINS TO
DETERIORATE FROM THIS POINT FORWARD. WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST THAT THIS WILL
HAMPER SOME OF OUR CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP EARLY ON. BUT
SHOULD SEE SOME GOOD CHANCES OF FORWARD PROGRESSION AND WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE BY LATE MONDAY AND THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. GENERALLY LEFT
THE 12 HOUR POPS UP TO THE ALLBLEND BASED ON UNCERTAINTY IN THE
MODEL AGREEMENT...THOUGH MATCHED UP FAIRLY WELL WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES. BASED ON THE LOWS TRAJECTORY THROUGH /OR NEAR TO/ THE STATE
OF KY...WE COULD BE IN LINE TO SEE SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
CONTINUED POPS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL.

COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH WITH TEMPS
DROPPING BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND SURFACE LOW...WILL THEN BEGIN TO ROTATE ACROSS
THE EAST CENTRAL CONUS...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES DEVELOPING AND
ROTATING WITHIN THE LOW...BUT MAKING NO EASTWARD PROGRESSION. IF
THIS HOLDS TRUE...WE CAN EXPECT A VERY WET END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH ONLY BRIEF BREAKS IN PRECIP FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ON. AS
WAS STATED BEFORE...THE TIMING AND SET UP OF THESE SHORTWAVES WILL
BE WHAT DRIVES OUR PRECIP COVERAGE...SO WILL CONTINUE TO USE A
CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS THIS FAR OUT. EITHER WAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO
CONTINUE COOLING...FALLING WELL BELOW NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. COOLING TEMPERATURES AND LOSS OF INSTABILITY BY WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CUT OFF ANY FURTHER THUNDERSTORM THREATS FOR THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 233 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

VFR WILL PERSIST UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. AFTER ABOUT 08Z A BAND OF
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST...REACHING THE EASTERN TIP OF KY BY AROUND 12Z. A REDUCTION
TO MOSTLY MVFR AND AREAS OF IFR IS EXPECTED WITH THE AREA OF PRECIP.
THE PRECIP WILL START TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER ABOUT
10Z...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE
FAIRLY LIGHT UNTIL NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD...WHEN PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WIND...WITH GUSTS FROM THE WEST
STARTING TO TOP 20 KTS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...HAL







000
FXUS63 KJKL 241952
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
352 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 233 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

UPDATED TO BLEND THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS INTO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST.
NO SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES WERE MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 937 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MORE EXTENSIVE THAN WAS FORECAST THIS MORNING...AND
HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS. THEY WILL BE ON THE DECLINE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH TODAY. HOWEVER...THE TEMPERATURE CLIMB WILL BE SLOWED...
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. HAVE TRIMMED BACK FORECAST MAX TEMPS A LITTLE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 751 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND SKY COVER
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. THE NAM12
SOLUTION WAS PREFERRED WITH ITS NORMAL RELIABILITY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL KEEP THE WEATHER OF EASTERN KENTUCKY DRY AND WARM TODAY THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE CLIMBING INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS TODAY...AS LIGHT WINDS AND DRY
AIR ALLOW FOR MAXIMIZED DAY TIME HEATING. THE INITIAL FORECAST ISSUE
IN THE SHORT TERM WILL IN FACT BE THE DRY WEATHER. LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND FUEL STICK MOISTURE VALUES WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED WILD
FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OUR NEXT ISSUE OF NOTE IN THE
FORECAST WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE LATEST MODELS ARE BRINGING A FAST MOVING COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. AS THIS FRONT TAPS INTO GULF MOISTURE ON ITS EASTWARD
TREK...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE
ALONG IT. OUR ONE SAVING GRACE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ITS
TIMING...AS THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM FORMATION. THIS SHOULD KEEP
CHANCES OF THUNDER AT A MINIMUM BOTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF
YEAR...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S ACROSS THE BOARD. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL A BIT CLOSER TO BUT LIKELY STILL A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH MAX VALUES IN THE LOWER 70S EXPECTED. THE PRESENCE OF
CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE THE REASON FOR THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGING PATTERN
ALOFT...MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION AS A
CLOSED LOW STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY...AND
ANOTHER CLOSED LOW GAINS STRENGTH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. AS MUCH
OF KY REMAINS IN THIS RIDGING PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXPECT
WINDS TO GENERALLY REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AND WARM MOIST AIR TO BE
ADVECTED IN. THIS WILL MEAN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 FOR
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BY MONDAY...THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE PLAINS
WILL HAVE MOVED EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WHERE IT WILL
BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE STATIONARY AND BROADEN. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE CO-LOCATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT WILL FIND ITSELF ACROSS KY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...ALSO
SUPPORTING THE ENHANCED TEMPERATURES. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE LOW
WILL BEGIN SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD...WITH THE COLD FRONT REACHING KY
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...STALLING...AND THEN PROGRESSING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

BASED ON THE LATEST GFS SOUNDINGS...MOISTURE WILL PUNCTURE THE AREA
IN THE FORM OF HIGH CLOUDS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. DRY AIR WILL
STILL BE ABUNDANT...HOWEVER...IN THE LOW LEVELS. MOISTURE WILL THEN
WORK ITS WAY IN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF PRECIP IS STILL SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN AS THE OVERALL AGREEMENT OF THE MODELS BEGINS TO
DETERIORATE FROM THIS POINT FORWARD. WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST THAT THIS WILL
HAMPER SOME OF OUR CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP EARLY ON. BUT
SHOULD SEE SOME GOOD CHANCES OF FORWARD PROGRESSION AND WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE BY LATE MONDAY AND THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. GENERALLY LEFT
THE 12 HOUR POPS UP TO THE ALLBLEND BASED ON UNCERTAINTY IN THE
MODEL AGREEMENT...THOUGH MATCHED UP FAIRLY WELL WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES. BASED ON THE LOWS TRAJECTORY THROUGH /OR NEAR TO/ THE STATE
OF KY...WE COULD BE IN LINE TO SEE SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
CONTINUED POPS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL.

COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH WITH TEMPS
DROPPING BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND SURFACE LOW...WILL THEN BEGIN TO ROTATE ACROSS
THE EAST CENTRAL CONUS...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES DEVELOPING AND
ROTATING WITHIN THE LOW...BUT MAKING NO EASTWARD PROGRESSION. IF
THIS HOLDS TRUE...WE CAN EXPECT A VERY WET END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH ONLY BRIEF BREAKS IN PRECIP FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ON. AS
WAS STATED BEFORE...THE TIMING AND SET UP OF THESE SHORTWAVES WILL
BE WHAT DRIVES OUR PRECIP COVERAGE...SO WILL CONTINUE TO USE A
CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS THIS FAR OUT. EITHER WAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO
CONTINUE COOLING...FALLING WELL BELOW NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. COOLING TEMPERATURES AND LOSS OF INSTABILITY BY WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CUT OFF ANY FURTHER THUNDERSTORM THREATS FOR THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 233 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

VFR WILL PERSIST UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. AFTER ABOUT 08Z A BAND OF
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST...REACHING THE EASTERN TIP OF KY BY AROUND 12Z. A REDUCTION
TO MOSTLY MVFR AND AREAS OF IFR IS EXPECTED WITH THE AREA OF PRECIP.
THE PRECIP WILL START TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER ABOUT
10Z...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE
FAIRLY LIGHT UNTIL NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD...WHEN PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WIND...WITH GUSTS FROM THE WEST
STARTING TO TOP 20 KTS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...HAL








000
FXUS63 KJKL 241833
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
233 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 233 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

UPDATED TO BLEND THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS INTO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST.
NO SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES WERE MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 937 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MORE EXTENSIVE THAN WAS FORECAST THIS MORNING...AND
HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS. THEY WILL BE ON THE DECLINE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH TODAY. HOWEVER...THE TEMPERATURE CLIMB WILL BE SLOWED...
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. HAVE TRIMMED BACK FORECAST MAX TEMPS A LITTLE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 751 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND SKY COVER
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. THE NAM12
SOLUTION WAS PREFERRED WITH ITS NORMAL RELIABILITY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL KEEP THE WEATHER OF EASTERN KENTUCKY DRY AND WARM TODAY THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE CLIMBING INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS TODAY...AS LIGHT WINDS AND DRY
AIR ALLOW FOR MAXIMIZED DAY TIME HEATING. THE INITIAL FORECAST ISSUE
IN THE SHORT TERM WILL IN FACT BE THE DRY WEATHER. LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND FUEL STICK MOISTURE VALUES WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED WILD
FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OUR NEXT ISSUE OF NOTE IN THE
FORECAST WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE LATEST MODELS ARE BRINGING A FAST MOVING COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. AS THIS FRONT TAPS INTO GULF MOISTURE ON ITS EASTWARD
TREK...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE
ALONG IT. OUR ONE SAVING GRACE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ITS
TIMING...AS THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM FORMATION. THIS SHOULD KEEP
CHANCES OF THUNDER AT A MINIMUM BOTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF
YEAR...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S ACROSS THE BOARD. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL A BIT CLOSER TO BUT LIKELY STILL A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH MAX VALUES IN THE LOWER 70S EXPECTED. THE PRESENCE OF
CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE THE REASON FOR THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO A BLOCKY
AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE PATTERN TO RULE ACROSS THE CONUS INTO NEXT WEEK.
A DEEP TROUGH WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS THIS WEEKEND...WITH RIDGING INITIALLY SHARPENING ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND TROUGHING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE SPINNING ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHILE
ANOTHER SPIRALS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC. ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE TWO FEATURES WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE IN
BETWEEN...ALLOWING FOR THE PLAINS LOW TO TAKE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE OFFING.

DETAILS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE
FEATURES REMAIN LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT...GIVEN THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE OF THE SYSTEM. AS SUCH...WILL RELY HEAVILY ON A BLEND OF
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE INHERITED FORECAST.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS WEEKEND...AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WHILE WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST IN THE LOW LEVELS.

EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OUT AHEAD OF THE PLAINS LOW WILL BEGIN TO
THREATEN THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HAVE UNDERCUT THE
BLENDED POPS JUST A BIT...AS THE OVERALL TREND DOES LOOK A TAD SLOWER
AND WE WILL HAVE DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN PLACE. POPS WILL GRADUALLY RAMP
UP TO LIKELY AT ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...ALTHOUGH ATTEMPTED TO PUT A LITTLE BIT OF A DIURNAL INFLUENCE
ON THE POPS AT TIMES...GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THE
MULTIPLE SHOTS OF FORCING.

TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL OFF INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS
DROPPING BACK TO WELL BELOW NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW DRIFTS CLOSER WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 233 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

VFR WILL PERSIST UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. AFTER ABOUT 08Z A BAND OF
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST...REACHING THE EASTERN TIP OF KY BY AROUND 12Z. A REDUCTION
TO MOSTLY MVFR AND AREAS OF IFR IS EXPECTED WITH THE AREA OF PRECIP.
THE PRECIP WILL START TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER ABOUT
10Z...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE
FAIRLY LIGHT UNTIL NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD...WHEN PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WIND...WITH GUSTS FROM THE WEST
STARTING TO TOP 20 KTS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...HAL







000
FXUS63 KJKL 241833
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
233 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 233 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

UPDATED TO BLEND THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS INTO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST.
NO SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES WERE MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 937 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MORE EXTENSIVE THAN WAS FORECAST THIS MORNING...AND
HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS. THEY WILL BE ON THE DECLINE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH TODAY. HOWEVER...THE TEMPERATURE CLIMB WILL BE SLOWED...
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. HAVE TRIMMED BACK FORECAST MAX TEMPS A LITTLE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 751 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND SKY COVER
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. THE NAM12
SOLUTION WAS PREFERRED WITH ITS NORMAL RELIABILITY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL KEEP THE WEATHER OF EASTERN KENTUCKY DRY AND WARM TODAY THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE CLIMBING INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS TODAY...AS LIGHT WINDS AND DRY
AIR ALLOW FOR MAXIMIZED DAY TIME HEATING. THE INITIAL FORECAST ISSUE
IN THE SHORT TERM WILL IN FACT BE THE DRY WEATHER. LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND FUEL STICK MOISTURE VALUES WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED WILD
FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OUR NEXT ISSUE OF NOTE IN THE
FORECAST WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE LATEST MODELS ARE BRINGING A FAST MOVING COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. AS THIS FRONT TAPS INTO GULF MOISTURE ON ITS EASTWARD
TREK...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE
ALONG IT. OUR ONE SAVING GRACE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ITS
TIMING...AS THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM FORMATION. THIS SHOULD KEEP
CHANCES OF THUNDER AT A MINIMUM BOTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF
YEAR...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S ACROSS THE BOARD. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL A BIT CLOSER TO BUT LIKELY STILL A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH MAX VALUES IN THE LOWER 70S EXPECTED. THE PRESENCE OF
CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE THE REASON FOR THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO A BLOCKY
AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE PATTERN TO RULE ACROSS THE CONUS INTO NEXT WEEK.
A DEEP TROUGH WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS THIS WEEKEND...WITH RIDGING INITIALLY SHARPENING ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND TROUGHING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE SPINNING ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHILE
ANOTHER SPIRALS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC. ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE TWO FEATURES WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE IN
BETWEEN...ALLOWING FOR THE PLAINS LOW TO TAKE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE OFFING.

DETAILS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE
FEATURES REMAIN LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT...GIVEN THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE OF THE SYSTEM. AS SUCH...WILL RELY HEAVILY ON A BLEND OF
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE INHERITED FORECAST.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS WEEKEND...AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WHILE WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST IN THE LOW LEVELS.

EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OUT AHEAD OF THE PLAINS LOW WILL BEGIN TO
THREATEN THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HAVE UNDERCUT THE
BLENDED POPS JUST A BIT...AS THE OVERALL TREND DOES LOOK A TAD SLOWER
AND WE WILL HAVE DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN PLACE. POPS WILL GRADUALLY RAMP
UP TO LIKELY AT ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...ALTHOUGH ATTEMPTED TO PUT A LITTLE BIT OF A DIURNAL INFLUENCE
ON THE POPS AT TIMES...GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THE
MULTIPLE SHOTS OF FORCING.

TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL OFF INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS
DROPPING BACK TO WELL BELOW NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW DRIFTS CLOSER WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 233 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

VFR WILL PERSIST UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. AFTER ABOUT 08Z A BAND OF
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST...REACHING THE EASTERN TIP OF KY BY AROUND 12Z. A REDUCTION
TO MOSTLY MVFR AND AREAS OF IFR IS EXPECTED WITH THE AREA OF PRECIP.
THE PRECIP WILL START TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER ABOUT
10Z...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE
FAIRLY LIGHT UNTIL NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD...WHEN PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WIND...WITH GUSTS FROM THE WEST
STARTING TO TOP 20 KTS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...HAL








000
FXUS63 KJKL 241337
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
937 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MORE EXTENSIVE THAN WAS FORECAST THIS MORNING...AND
HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS. THEY WILL BE ON THE DECLINE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH TODAY. HOWEVER...THE TEMPERATURE CLIMB WILL BE SLOWED...
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. HAVE TRIMMED BACK FORECAST MAX TEMPS A LITTLE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 751 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND SKY COVER
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. THE NAM12
SOLUTION WAS PREFERRED WITH ITS NORMAL RELIABILITY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL KEEP THE WEATHER OF EASTERN KENTUCKY DRY AND WARM TODAY THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE CLIMBING INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS TODAY...AS LIGHT WINDS AND DRY
AIR ALLOW FOR MAXIMIZED DAY TIME HEATING. THE INITIAL FORECAST ISSUE
IN THE SHORT TERM WILL IN FACT BE THE DRY WEATHER. LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND FUEL STICK MOISTURE VALUES WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED WILD
FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OUR NEXT ISSUE OF NOTE IN THE
FORECAST WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE LATEST MODELS ARE BRINGING A FAST MOVING COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. AS THIS FRONT TAPS INTO GULF MOISTURE ON ITS EASTWARD
TREK...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE
ALONG IT. OUR ONE SAVING GRACE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ITS
TIMING...AS THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM FORMATION. THIS SHOULD KEEP
CHANCES OF THUNDER AT A MINIMUM BOTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF
YEAR...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S ACROSS THE BOARD. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL A BIT CLOSER TO BUT LIKELY STILL A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH MAX VALUES IN THE LOWER 70S EXPECTED. THE PRESENCE OF
CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE THE REASON FOR THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO A BLOCKY
AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE PATTERN TO RULE ACROSS THE CONUS INTO NEXT WEEK.
A DEEP TROUGH WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS THIS WEEKEND...WITH RIDGING INITIALLY SHARPENING ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND TROUGHING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE SPINNING ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHILE
ANOTHER SPIRALS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC. ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE TWO FEATURES WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE IN
BETWEEN...ALLOWING FOR THE PLAINS LOW TO TAKE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE OFFING.

DETAILS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE
FEATURES REMAIN LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT...GIVEN THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE OF THE SYSTEM. AS SUCH...WILL RELY HEAVILY ON A BLEND OF
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE INHERITED FORECAST.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS WEEKEND...AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WHILE WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST IN THE LOW LEVELS.

EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OUT AHEAD OF THE PLAINS LOW WILL BEGIN TO
THREATEN THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HAVE UNDERCUT THE
BLENDED POPS JUST A BIT...AS THE OVERALL TREND DOES LOOK A TAD SLOWER
AND WE WILL HAVE DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN PLACE. POPS WILL GRADUALLY RAMP
UP TO LIKELY AT ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...ALTHOUGH ATTEMPTED TO PUT A LITTLE BIT OF A DIURNAL INFLUENCE
ON THE POPS AT TIMES...GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THE
MULTIPLE SHOTS OF FORCING.

TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL OFF INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS
DROPPING BACK TO WELL BELOW NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW DRIFTS CLOSER WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 751 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

SCATTERED TO BROKEN LAYERS OF MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
STREAM ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE
SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH. CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER AND THICKEN
AFTER 5Z TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A LINE
OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT
SWEEPS EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE RAIN
SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT SME AND LOZ BETWEEN 6 AND 7Z TONIGHT...AND JKL
AND SJS BETWEEN 7 AND 9Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME
TO TIME WITH ANY STRONGER SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT AFFECT THE TAF
SITES. ADDITIONALLY...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR LOOKS TO THREATEN
OVERNIGHT AND WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF THIS AT ALL SITES.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN/HAL
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...AR/GEOGERIAN








000
FXUS63 KJKL 241337
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
937 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MORE EXTENSIVE THAN WAS FORECAST THIS MORNING...AND
HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS. THEY WILL BE ON THE DECLINE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH TODAY. HOWEVER...THE TEMPERATURE CLIMB WILL BE SLOWED...
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. HAVE TRIMMED BACK FORECAST MAX TEMPS A LITTLE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 751 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND SKY COVER
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. THE NAM12
SOLUTION WAS PREFERRED WITH ITS NORMAL RELIABILITY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL KEEP THE WEATHER OF EASTERN KENTUCKY DRY AND WARM TODAY THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE CLIMBING INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS TODAY...AS LIGHT WINDS AND DRY
AIR ALLOW FOR MAXIMIZED DAY TIME HEATING. THE INITIAL FORECAST ISSUE
IN THE SHORT TERM WILL IN FACT BE THE DRY WEATHER. LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND FUEL STICK MOISTURE VALUES WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED WILD
FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OUR NEXT ISSUE OF NOTE IN THE
FORECAST WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE LATEST MODELS ARE BRINGING A FAST MOVING COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. AS THIS FRONT TAPS INTO GULF MOISTURE ON ITS EASTWARD
TREK...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE
ALONG IT. OUR ONE SAVING GRACE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ITS
TIMING...AS THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM FORMATION. THIS SHOULD KEEP
CHANCES OF THUNDER AT A MINIMUM BOTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF
YEAR...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S ACROSS THE BOARD. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL A BIT CLOSER TO BUT LIKELY STILL A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH MAX VALUES IN THE LOWER 70S EXPECTED. THE PRESENCE OF
CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE THE REASON FOR THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO A BLOCKY
AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE PATTERN TO RULE ACROSS THE CONUS INTO NEXT WEEK.
A DEEP TROUGH WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS THIS WEEKEND...WITH RIDGING INITIALLY SHARPENING ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND TROUGHING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE SPINNING ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHILE
ANOTHER SPIRALS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC. ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE TWO FEATURES WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE IN
BETWEEN...ALLOWING FOR THE PLAINS LOW TO TAKE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE OFFING.

DETAILS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE
FEATURES REMAIN LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT...GIVEN THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE OF THE SYSTEM. AS SUCH...WILL RELY HEAVILY ON A BLEND OF
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE INHERITED FORECAST.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS WEEKEND...AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WHILE WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST IN THE LOW LEVELS.

EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OUT AHEAD OF THE PLAINS LOW WILL BEGIN TO
THREATEN THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HAVE UNDERCUT THE
BLENDED POPS JUST A BIT...AS THE OVERALL TREND DOES LOOK A TAD SLOWER
AND WE WILL HAVE DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN PLACE. POPS WILL GRADUALLY RAMP
UP TO LIKELY AT ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...ALTHOUGH ATTEMPTED TO PUT A LITTLE BIT OF A DIURNAL INFLUENCE
ON THE POPS AT TIMES...GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THE
MULTIPLE SHOTS OF FORCING.

TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL OFF INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS
DROPPING BACK TO WELL BELOW NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW DRIFTS CLOSER WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 751 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

SCATTERED TO BROKEN LAYERS OF MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
STREAM ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE
SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH. CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER AND THICKEN
AFTER 5Z TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A LINE
OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT
SWEEPS EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE RAIN
SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT SME AND LOZ BETWEEN 6 AND 7Z TONIGHT...AND JKL
AND SJS BETWEEN 7 AND 9Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME
TO TIME WITH ANY STRONGER SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT AFFECT THE TAF
SITES. ADDITIONALLY...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR LOOKS TO THREATEN
OVERNIGHT AND WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF THIS AT ALL SITES.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN/HAL
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...AR/GEOGERIAN







000
FXUS63 KJKL 241151 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
751 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 751 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND SKY COVER
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. THE NAM12
SOLUTION WAS PREFERRED WITH ITS NORMAL RELIABILITY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL KEEP THE WEATHER OF EASTERN KENTUCKY DRY AND WARM TODAY THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE CLIMBING INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS TODAY...AS LIGHT WINDS AND DRY
AIR ALLOW FOR MAXIMIZED DAY TIME HEATING. THE INITIAL FORECAST ISSUE
IN THE SHORT TERM WILL IN FACT BE THE DRY WEATHER. LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND FUEL STICK MOISTURE VALUES WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED WILD
FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OUR NEXT ISSUE OF NOTE IN THE
FORECAST WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE LATEST MODELS ARE BRINGING A FAST MOVING COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. AS THIS FRONT TAPS INTO GULF MOISTURE ON ITS EASTWARD
TREK...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE
ALONG IT. OUR ONE SAVING GRACE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ITS
TIMING...AS THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM FORMATION. THIS SHOULD KEEP
CHANCES OF THUNDER AT A MINIMUM BOTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF
YEAR...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S ACROSS THE BOARD. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL A BIT CLOSER TO BUT LIKELY STILL A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH MAX VALUES IN THE LOWER 70S EXPECTED. THE PRESENCE OF
CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE THE REASON FOR THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO A BLOCKY
AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE PATTERN TO RULE ACROSS THE CONUS INTO NEXT WEEK.
A DEEP TROUGH WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS THIS WEEKEND...WITH RIDGING INITIALLY SHARPENING ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND TROUGHING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE SPINNING ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHILE
ANOTHER SPIRALS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC. ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE TWO FEATURES WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE IN
BETWEEN...ALLOWING FOR THE PLAINS LOW TO TAKE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE OFFING.

DETAILS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE
FEATURES REMAIN LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT...GIVEN THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE OF THE SYSTEM. AS SUCH...WILL RELY HEAVILY ON A BLEND OF
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE INHERITED FORECAST.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS WEEKEND...AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WHILE WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST IN THE LOW LEVELS.

EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OUT AHEAD OF THE PLAINS LOW WILL BEGIN TO
THREATEN THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HAVE UNDERCUT THE
BLENDED POPS JUST A BIT...AS THE OVERALL TREND DOES LOOK A TAD SLOWER
AND WE WILL HAVE DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN PLACE. POPS WILL GRADUALLY RAMP
UP TO LIKELY AT ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...ALTHOUGH ATTEMPTED TO PUT A LITTLE BIT OF A DIURNAL INFLUENCE
ON THE POPS AT TIMES...GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THE
MULTIPLE SHOTS OF FORCING.

TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL OFF INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS
DROPPING BACK TO WELL BELOW NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW DRIFTS CLOSER WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 751 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

SCATTERED TO BROKEN LAYERS OF MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
STREAM ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE
SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH. CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER AND THICKEN
AFTER 5Z TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A LINE
OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT
SWEEPS EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE RAIN
SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT SME AND LOZ BETWEEN 6 AND 7Z TONIGHT...AND JKL
AND SJS BETWEEN 7 AND 9Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME
TO TIME WITH ANY STRONGER SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT AFFECT THE TAF
SITES. ADDITIONALLY...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR LOOKS TO THREATEN
OVERNIGHT AND WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF THIS AT ALL SITES.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...AR/GEOGERIAN







000
FXUS63 KJKL 241151 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
751 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 751 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND SKY COVER
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. THE NAM12
SOLUTION WAS PREFERRED WITH ITS NORMAL RELIABILITY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL KEEP THE WEATHER OF EASTERN KENTUCKY DRY AND WARM TODAY THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE CLIMBING INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS TODAY...AS LIGHT WINDS AND DRY
AIR ALLOW FOR MAXIMIZED DAY TIME HEATING. THE INITIAL FORECAST ISSUE
IN THE SHORT TERM WILL IN FACT BE THE DRY WEATHER. LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND FUEL STICK MOISTURE VALUES WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED WILD
FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OUR NEXT ISSUE OF NOTE IN THE
FORECAST WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE LATEST MODELS ARE BRINGING A FAST MOVING COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. AS THIS FRONT TAPS INTO GULF MOISTURE ON ITS EASTWARD
TREK...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE
ALONG IT. OUR ONE SAVING GRACE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ITS
TIMING...AS THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM FORMATION. THIS SHOULD KEEP
CHANCES OF THUNDER AT A MINIMUM BOTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF
YEAR...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S ACROSS THE BOARD. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL A BIT CLOSER TO BUT LIKELY STILL A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH MAX VALUES IN THE LOWER 70S EXPECTED. THE PRESENCE OF
CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE THE REASON FOR THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO A BLOCKY
AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE PATTERN TO RULE ACROSS THE CONUS INTO NEXT WEEK.
A DEEP TROUGH WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS THIS WEEKEND...WITH RIDGING INITIALLY SHARPENING ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND TROUGHING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE SPINNING ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHILE
ANOTHER SPIRALS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC. ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE TWO FEATURES WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE IN
BETWEEN...ALLOWING FOR THE PLAINS LOW TO TAKE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE OFFING.

DETAILS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE
FEATURES REMAIN LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT...GIVEN THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE OF THE SYSTEM. AS SUCH...WILL RELY HEAVILY ON A BLEND OF
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE INHERITED FORECAST.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS WEEKEND...AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WHILE WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST IN THE LOW LEVELS.

EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OUT AHEAD OF THE PLAINS LOW WILL BEGIN TO
THREATEN THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HAVE UNDERCUT THE
BLENDED POPS JUST A BIT...AS THE OVERALL TREND DOES LOOK A TAD SLOWER
AND WE WILL HAVE DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN PLACE. POPS WILL GRADUALLY RAMP
UP TO LIKELY AT ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...ALTHOUGH ATTEMPTED TO PUT A LITTLE BIT OF A DIURNAL INFLUENCE
ON THE POPS AT TIMES...GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THE
MULTIPLE SHOTS OF FORCING.

TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL OFF INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS
DROPPING BACK TO WELL BELOW NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW DRIFTS CLOSER WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 751 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

SCATTERED TO BROKEN LAYERS OF MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
STREAM ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE
SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH. CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER AND THICKEN
AFTER 5Z TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A LINE
OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT
SWEEPS EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE RAIN
SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT SME AND LOZ BETWEEN 6 AND 7Z TONIGHT...AND JKL
AND SJS BETWEEN 7 AND 9Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME
TO TIME WITH ANY STRONGER SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT AFFECT THE TAF
SITES. ADDITIONALLY...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR LOOKS TO THREATEN
OVERNIGHT AND WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF THIS AT ALL SITES.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...AR/GEOGERIAN








000
FXUS63 KJKL 241047
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
647 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. THE NAM12
SOLUTION WAS PREFERRED WITH ITS NORMAL RELIABILITY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL KEEP THE WEATHER OF EASTERN KENTUCKY DRY AND WARM TODAY THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE CLIMBING INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS TODAY...AS LIGHT WINDS AND DRY
AIR ALLOW FOR MAXIMIZED DAY TIME HEATING. THE INITIAL FORECAST ISSUE
IN THE SHORT TERM WILL IN FACT BE THE DRY WEATHER. LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND FUEL STICK MOISTURE VALUES WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED WILD
FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OUR NEXT ISSUE OF NOTE IN THE
FORECAST WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE LATEST MODELS ARE BRINGING A FAST MOVING COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. AS THIS FRONT TAPS INTO GULF MOISTURE ON ITS EASTWARD
TREK...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE
ALONG IT. OUR ONE SAVING GRACE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ITS
TIMING...AS THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM FORMATION. THIS SHOULD KEEP
CHANCES OF THUNDER AT A MINIMUM BOTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF
YEAR...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S ACROSS THE BOARD. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL A BIT CLOSER TO BUT LIKELY STILL A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH MAX VALUES IN THE LOWER 70S EXPECTED. THE PRESENCE OF
CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE THE REASON FOR THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO A BLOCKY
AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE PATTERN TO RULE ACROSS THE CONUS INTO NEXT WEEK.
A DEEP TROUGH WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS THIS WEEKEND...WITH RIDGING INITIALLY SHARPENING ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND TROUGHING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE SPINNING ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHILE
ANOTHER SPIRALS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC. ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE TWO FEATURES WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE IN
BETWEEN...ALLOWING FOR THE PLAINS LOW TO TAKE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE OFFING.

DETAILS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE
FEATURES REMAIN LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT...GIVEN THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE OF THE SYSTEM. AS SUCH...WILL RELY HEAVILY ON A BLEND OF
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE INHERITED FORECAST.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS WEEKEND...AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WHILE WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST IN THE LOW LEVELS.

EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OUT AHEAD OF THE PLAINS LOW WILL BEGIN TO
THREATEN THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HAVE UNDERCUT THE
BLENDED POPS JUST A BIT...AS THE OVERALL TREND DOES LOOK A TAD SLOWER
AND WE WILL HAVE DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN PLACE. POPS WILL GRADUALLY RAMP
UP TO LIKELY AT ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...ALTHOUGH ATTEMPTED TO PUT A LITTLE BIT OF A DIURNAL INFLUENCE
ON THE POPS AT TIMES...GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THE
MULTIPLE SHOTS OF FORCING.

TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL OFF INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS
DROPPING BACK TO WELL BELOW NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW DRIFTS CLOSER WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

SCATTERED TO BROKEN LAYERS OF MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
STREAM ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE
SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH. CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER AND THICKEN
AFTER 5Z TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A LINE
OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT
SWEEPS EASTWARD TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW. THE RAIN SHOULD BEGIN TO
AFFECT SME AND LOZ BETWEEN 6 AND 7Z TONIGHT...AND JKL AND SJS BETWEEN
7 AND 9Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME WITH ANY
SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT AFFECT THE TAF SITES.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...AR







000
FXUS63 KJKL 240805
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
405 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. THE NAM12
SOLUTION WAS PREFERRED WITH ITS NORMAL RELIABILITY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL KEEP THE WEATHER OF EASTERN KENTUCKY DRY AND WARM TODAY THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE CLIMBING INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS TODAY...AS LIGHT WINDS AND DRY
AIR ALLOW FOR MAXIMIZED DAY TIME HEATING. THE INITIAL FORECAST ISSUE
IN THE SHORT TERM WILL IN FACT BE THE DRY WEATHER. LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND FUEL STICK MOISTURE VALUES WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED WILD
FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OUR NEXT ISSUE OF NOTE IN THE
FORECAST WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE LATEST MODELS ARE BRINGING A FAST MOVING COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. AS THIS FRONT TAPS INTO GULF MOISTURE ON ITS EASTWARD
TREK...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE
ALONG IT. OUR ONE SAVING GRACE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ITS
TIMING...AS THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM FORMATION. THIS SHOULD KEEP
CHANCES OF THUNDER AT A MINIMUM BOTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF
YEAR...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S ACROSS THE BOARD. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL A BIT CLOSER TO BUT LIKELY STILL A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH MAX VALUES IN THE LOWER 70S EXPECTED. THE PRESENCE OF
CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE THE REASON FOR THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO A BLOCKY
AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE PATTERN TO RULE ACROSS THE CONUS INTO NEXT WEEK.
A DEEP TROUGH WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS THIS WEEKEND...WITH RIDGING INITIALLY SHARPENING ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND TROUGHING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE SPINNING ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHILE
ANOTHER SPIRALS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC. ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE TWO FEATURES WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE IN
BETWEEN...ALLOWING FOR THE PLAINS LOW TO TAKE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE OFFING.

DETAILS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE
FEATURES REMAIN LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT...GIVEN THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE OF THE SYSTEM. AS SUCH...WILL RELY HEAVILY ON A BLEND OF
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE INHERITED FORECAST.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS WEEKEND...AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WHILE WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST IN THE LOW LEVELS.

EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OUT AHEAD OF THE PLAINS LOW WILL BEGIN TO
THREATEN THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HAVE UNDERCUT THE
BLENDED POPS JUST A BIT...AS THE OVERALL TREND DOES LOOK A TAD SLOWER
AND WE WILL HAVE DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN PLACE. POPS WILL GRADUALLY RAMP
UP TO LIKELY AT ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...ALTHOUGH ATTEMPTED TO PUT A LITTLE BIT OF A DIURNAL INFLUENCE
ON THE POPS AT TIMES...GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THE
MULTIPLE SHOTS OF FORCING.

TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL OFF INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS
DROPPING BACK TO WELL BELOW NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW DRIFTS CLOSER WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 131 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

VFR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A MID
LEVEL CEILING AT 10-15K FT AGL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER ABOUT 08Z.
THIS CLOUD DECK WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY DURING THE DAY
TODAY...AND WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LATER
TONIGHT...A SCATTERED DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TO INVADE THE
AREA FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...AR







000
FXUS63 KJKL 240700
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
300 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. THE NAM12
SOLUTION WAS PREFERRED WITH ITS NORMAL RELIABILITY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL KEEP THE WEATHER OF EASTERN KENTUCKY DRY AND WARM TODAY THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE CLIMBING INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS TODAY...AS LIGHT WINDS AND DRY
AIR ALLOW FOR MAXIMIZED DAY TIME HEATING. THE INITIAL FORECAST ISSUE
IN THE SHORT TERM WILL IN FACT BE THE DRY WEATHER. LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND FUEL STICK MOISTURE VALUES WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED WILD
FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OUR NEXT ISSUE OF NOTE IN THE
FORECAST WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE LATEST MODELS ARE BRINGING A FAST MOVING COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. AS THIS FRONT TAPS INTO GULF MOISTURE ON ITS EASTWARD
TREK...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE
ALONG IT. OUR ONE SAVING GRACE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ITS
TIMING...AS THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM FORMATION. THIS SHOULD KEEP
CHANCES OF THUNDER AT A MINIMUM BOTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF
YEAR...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S ACROSS THE BOARD. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL A BIT CLOSER TO BUT LIKELY STILL A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH MAX VALUES IN THE LOWER 70S EXPECTED. THE PRESENCE OF
CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE THE REASON FOR THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

THE MODELS START OUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING
TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST AND SOME WEAK RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES.
WITH TIME...THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE WEST COAST AND THE RIDGING
INCREASES OVER THE ROCKIES. THE TROUGH THAT HAD MOVED EAST OF THE
AREA STALLS OVER THE EAST COAST AND IS ABLE TO PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE BACK ACROSS THE AREA
ON SUNDAY MONDAY MORNING AS A WARM FRONT. A STRONG SYSTEM IS WORKING
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS LOOKS TO BE HAVE A NEGATIVELY TILTED
UPPER TROUGH...SO THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME A
CONCERN. ONE OF THE FACTORS WILL BE THE TIME OF DAY IT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON...SO
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. THERE IS QUITE
A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...SO THINGS
COULD CHANGE QUITE A BIT BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
USED THE MODEL BLEND FOR THE TEMPERATURES AND THEN NUDGES THEM TOWARD
THE ECMWF AND MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS FOR TERRAIN EFFECTS. WITH THE TIMING
ISSUES NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST...DID NOT WANT TO GO OUT ON A LIMB.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 131 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

VFR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A MID
LEVEL CEILING AT 10-15K FT AGL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER ABOUT 08Z.
THIS CLOUD DECK WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY DURING THE DAY
TODAY...AND WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LATER
TONIGHT...A SCATTERED DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TO INVADE THE
AREA FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...AR







000
FXUS63 KJKL 240700
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
300 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. THE NAM12
SOLUTION WAS PREFERRED WITH ITS NORMAL RELIABILITY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL KEEP THE WEATHER OF EASTERN KENTUCKY DRY AND WARM TODAY THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE CLIMBING INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS TODAY...AS LIGHT WINDS AND DRY
AIR ALLOW FOR MAXIMIZED DAY TIME HEATING. THE INITIAL FORECAST ISSUE
IN THE SHORT TERM WILL IN FACT BE THE DRY WEATHER. LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND FUEL STICK MOISTURE VALUES WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED WILD
FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OUR NEXT ISSUE OF NOTE IN THE
FORECAST WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE LATEST MODELS ARE BRINGING A FAST MOVING COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. AS THIS FRONT TAPS INTO GULF MOISTURE ON ITS EASTWARD
TREK...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE
ALONG IT. OUR ONE SAVING GRACE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ITS
TIMING...AS THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM FORMATION. THIS SHOULD KEEP
CHANCES OF THUNDER AT A MINIMUM BOTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF
YEAR...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S ACROSS THE BOARD. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL A BIT CLOSER TO BUT LIKELY STILL A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH MAX VALUES IN THE LOWER 70S EXPECTED. THE PRESENCE OF
CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE THE REASON FOR THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

THE MODELS START OUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING
TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST AND SOME WEAK RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES.
WITH TIME...THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE WEST COAST AND THE RIDGING
INCREASES OVER THE ROCKIES. THE TROUGH THAT HAD MOVED EAST OF THE
AREA STALLS OVER THE EAST COAST AND IS ABLE TO PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE BACK ACROSS THE AREA
ON SUNDAY MONDAY MORNING AS A WARM FRONT. A STRONG SYSTEM IS WORKING
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS LOOKS TO BE HAVE A NEGATIVELY TILTED
UPPER TROUGH...SO THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME A
CONCERN. ONE OF THE FACTORS WILL BE THE TIME OF DAY IT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON...SO
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. THERE IS QUITE
A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...SO THINGS
COULD CHANGE QUITE A BIT BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
USED THE MODEL BLEND FOR THE TEMPERATURES AND THEN NUDGES THEM TOWARD
THE ECMWF AND MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS FOR TERRAIN EFFECTS. WITH THE TIMING
ISSUES NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST...DID NOT WANT TO GO OUT ON A LIMB.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 131 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

VFR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A MID
LEVEL CEILING AT 10-15K FT AGL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER ABOUT 08Z.
THIS CLOUD DECK WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY DURING THE DAY
TODAY...AND WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LATER
TONIGHT...A SCATTERED DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TO INVADE THE
AREA FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...AR








000
FXUS63 KJKL 240531
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
131 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 131 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

THE LATEST OBS DATA WAS INGESTED INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO
ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS. ASIDE FROM THAT NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 858 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

UPDATED THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT
CONDITIONS AND MODEL TRENDS. NO ZONE UPDATES WILL BE REQUIRED. SENT
UPDATES TO THE WEB AND NDFD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

THERE WAS VERY LITTLE FROST REPORTED THIS MORNING IN EASTERN KY.
HOWEVER...WITH CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER
30S...AND WINDS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT...WILL
CONTINUE WITH A FORECAST OF PATCHY FROST. WE EXPECT SHELTERED VALLEY
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 30S TONIGHT...BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL
ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT...AND THIS WOULD BE A LIMITING
FACTOR FOR FROST FORMATION. FROST IS MENTIONED IN A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT...AND WITH PATCHY NATURE OF ANY FROST TONIGHT THERE WILL
BE NO ADVISORY ISSUED.

FOR THURSDAY THE MAIN CONCERN IS ONCE AGAIN LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
AND THE ENHANCED THREAT FOR WILD FIRES. RELATIVE HUMIDITY ON THURSDAY
LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN TODAY WITH SOME SPOTS DOWN TO 20
PERCENT OR EVEN A LITTLE LOWER. HOWEVER...WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN UNDER
10 MPH FOR MOST AREAS...AND LOOK ESPECIALLY LIGHT IN THE EAST WHERE
THE LOWEST HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO A COLD FRONT WHICH
IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY. THE MAIN MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE TIMING ISSUES AND HOW LONG TO HOLD
ONTO RAIN CHANCES INTO FRIDAY. THE 12Z GFS IS FASTER THAN THE 12Z
NAM...12Z GEM...AND 00Z ECMWF. USED A BLENDED APPROACH AND HELD ONTO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR ALL BUT THE FAR
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. STABILITY WILL BE LIMITED BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE A
50 KNOT 8H JET IMPACTING THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...AND SOME UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT AS WELL. COULD HAVE SOME
THUNDER WITH ANY SHOWERS NEAR THE FRONT...BUT WHILE OVERALL RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE IN THE 60 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...WILL ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

THE MODELS START OUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING
TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST AND SOME WEAK RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES.
WITH TIME...THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE WEST COAST AND THE RIDGING
INCREASES OVER THE ROCKIES. THE TROUGH THAT HAD MOVED EAST OF THE
AREA STALLS OVER THE EAST COAST AND IS ABLE TO PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE BACK ACROSS THE AREA
ON SUNDAY MONDAY MORNING AS A WARM FRONT. A STRONG SYSTEM IS WORKING
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS LOOKS TO BE HAVE A NEGATIVELY TILTED
UPPER TROUGH...SO THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME A
CONCERN. ONE OF THE FACTORS WILL BE THE TIME OF DAY IT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON...SO
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. THERE IS QUITE
A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...SO THINGS
COULD CHANGE QUITE A BIT BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
USED THE MODEL BLEND FOR THE TEMPERATURES AND THEN NUDGES THEM TOWARD
THE ECMWF AND MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS FOR TERRAIN EFFECTS. WITH THE TIMING
ISSUES NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST...DID NOT WANT TO GO OUT ON A LIMB.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 131 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

VFR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A MID
LEVEL CEILING AT 10-15K FT AGL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER ABOUT 08Z.
THIS CLOUD DECK WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY DURING THE DAY
TODAY...AND WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LATER
TONIGHT...A SCATTERED DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TO INVADE THE
AREA FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...AR







000
FXUS63 KJKL 240531
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
131 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 131 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

THE LATEST OBS DATA WAS INGESTED INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO
ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS. ASIDE FROM THAT NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 858 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

UPDATED THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT
CONDITIONS AND MODEL TRENDS. NO ZONE UPDATES WILL BE REQUIRED. SENT
UPDATES TO THE WEB AND NDFD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

THERE WAS VERY LITTLE FROST REPORTED THIS MORNING IN EASTERN KY.
HOWEVER...WITH CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER
30S...AND WINDS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT...WILL
CONTINUE WITH A FORECAST OF PATCHY FROST. WE EXPECT SHELTERED VALLEY
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 30S TONIGHT...BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL
ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT...AND THIS WOULD BE A LIMITING
FACTOR FOR FROST FORMATION. FROST IS MENTIONED IN A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT...AND WITH PATCHY NATURE OF ANY FROST TONIGHT THERE WILL
BE NO ADVISORY ISSUED.

FOR THURSDAY THE MAIN CONCERN IS ONCE AGAIN LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
AND THE ENHANCED THREAT FOR WILD FIRES. RELATIVE HUMIDITY ON THURSDAY
LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN TODAY WITH SOME SPOTS DOWN TO 20
PERCENT OR EVEN A LITTLE LOWER. HOWEVER...WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN UNDER
10 MPH FOR MOST AREAS...AND LOOK ESPECIALLY LIGHT IN THE EAST WHERE
THE LOWEST HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO A COLD FRONT WHICH
IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY. THE MAIN MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE TIMING ISSUES AND HOW LONG TO HOLD
ONTO RAIN CHANCES INTO FRIDAY. THE 12Z GFS IS FASTER THAN THE 12Z
NAM...12Z GEM...AND 00Z ECMWF. USED A BLENDED APPROACH AND HELD ONTO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR ALL BUT THE FAR
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. STABILITY WILL BE LIMITED BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE A
50 KNOT 8H JET IMPACTING THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...AND SOME UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT AS WELL. COULD HAVE SOME
THUNDER WITH ANY SHOWERS NEAR THE FRONT...BUT WHILE OVERALL RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE IN THE 60 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...WILL ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

THE MODELS START OUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING
TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST AND SOME WEAK RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES.
WITH TIME...THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE WEST COAST AND THE RIDGING
INCREASES OVER THE ROCKIES. THE TROUGH THAT HAD MOVED EAST OF THE
AREA STALLS OVER THE EAST COAST AND IS ABLE TO PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE BACK ACROSS THE AREA
ON SUNDAY MONDAY MORNING AS A WARM FRONT. A STRONG SYSTEM IS WORKING
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS LOOKS TO BE HAVE A NEGATIVELY TILTED
UPPER TROUGH...SO THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME A
CONCERN. ONE OF THE FACTORS WILL BE THE TIME OF DAY IT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON...SO
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. THERE IS QUITE
A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...SO THINGS
COULD CHANGE QUITE A BIT BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
USED THE MODEL BLEND FOR THE TEMPERATURES AND THEN NUDGES THEM TOWARD
THE ECMWF AND MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS FOR TERRAIN EFFECTS. WITH THE TIMING
ISSUES NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST...DID NOT WANT TO GO OUT ON A LIMB.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 131 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

VFR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A MID
LEVEL CEILING AT 10-15K FT AGL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER ABOUT 08Z.
THIS CLOUD DECK WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY DURING THE DAY
TODAY...AND WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LATER
TONIGHT...A SCATTERED DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TO INVADE THE
AREA FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...AR








000
FXUS63 KJKL 240058
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
858 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

UPDATED THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT
CONDITIONS AND MODEL TRENDS. NO ZONE UPDATES WILL BE REQUIRED. SENT
UPDATES TO THE WEB AND NDFD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

THERE WAS VERY LITTLE FROST REPORTED THIS MORNING IN EASTERN KY.
HOWEVER...WITH CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER
30S...AND WINDS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT...WILL
CONTINUE WITH A FORECAST OF PATCHY FROST. WE EXPECT SHELTERED VALLEY
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 30S TONIGHT...BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL
ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT...AND THIS WOULD BE A LIMITING
FACTOR FOR FROST FORMATION. FROST IS MENTIONED IN A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT...AND WITH PATCHY NATURE OF ANY FROST TONIGHT THERE WILL
BE NO ADVISORY ISSUED.

FOR THURSDAY THE MAIN CONCERN IS ONCE AGAIN LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
AND THE ENHANCED THREAT FOR WILD FIRES. RELATIVE HUMIDITY ON THURSDAY
LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN TODAY WITH SOME SPOTS DOWN TO 20
PERCENT OR EVEN A LITTLE LOWER. HOWEVER...WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN UNDER
10 MPH FOR MOST AREAS...AND LOOK ESPECIALLY LIGHT IN THE EAST WHERE
THE LOWEST HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO A COLD FRONT WHICH
IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY. THE MAIN MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE TIMING ISSUES AND HOW LONG TO HOLD
ONTO RAIN CHANCES INTO FRIDAY. THE 12Z GFS IS FASTER THAN THE 12Z
NAM...12Z GEM...AND 00Z ECMWF. USED A BLENDED APPROACH AND HELD ONTO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR ALL BUT THE FAR
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. STABILITY WILL BE LIMITED BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE A
50 KNOT 8H JET IMPACTING THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...AND SOME UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT AS WELL. COULD HAVE SOME
THUNDER WITH ANY SHOWERS NEAR THE FRONT...BUT WHILE OVERALL RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE IN THE 60 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...WILL ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

THE MODELS START OUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING
TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST AND SOME WEAK RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES.
WITH TIME...THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE WEST COAST AND THE RIDGING
INCREASES OVER THE ROCKIES. THE TROUGH THAT HAD MOVED EAST OF THE
AREA STALLS OVER THE EAST COAST AND IS ABLE TO PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE BACK ACROSS THE AREA
ON SUNDAY MONDAY MORNING AS A WARM FRONT. A STRONG SYSTEM IS WORKING
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS LOOKS TO BE HAVE A NEGATIVELY TILTED
UPPER TROUGH...SO THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME A
CONCERN. ONE OF THE FACTORS WILL BE THE TIME OF DAY IT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON...SO
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. THERE IS QUITE
A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...SO THINGS
COULD CHANGE QUITE A BIT BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
USED THE MODEL BLEND FOR THE TEMPERATURES AND THEN NUDGES THEM TOWARD
THE ECMWF AND MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS FOR TERRAIN EFFECTS. WITH THE TIMING
ISSUES NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST...DID NOT WANT TO GO OUT ON A LIMB.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 858 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014


VFR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A MID
LEVEL CEILING AT 10-15K FT AGL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER ABOUT 08Z.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJ
SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...JJ







000
FXUS63 KJKL 240058
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
858 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

UPDATED THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT
CONDITIONS AND MODEL TRENDS. NO ZONE UPDATES WILL BE REQUIRED. SENT
UPDATES TO THE WEB AND NDFD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

THERE WAS VERY LITTLE FROST REPORTED THIS MORNING IN EASTERN KY.
HOWEVER...WITH CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER
30S...AND WINDS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT...WILL
CONTINUE WITH A FORECAST OF PATCHY FROST. WE EXPECT SHELTERED VALLEY
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 30S TONIGHT...BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL
ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT...AND THIS WOULD BE A LIMITING
FACTOR FOR FROST FORMATION. FROST IS MENTIONED IN A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT...AND WITH PATCHY NATURE OF ANY FROST TONIGHT THERE WILL
BE NO ADVISORY ISSUED.

FOR THURSDAY THE MAIN CONCERN IS ONCE AGAIN LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
AND THE ENHANCED THREAT FOR WILD FIRES. RELATIVE HUMIDITY ON THURSDAY
LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN TODAY WITH SOME SPOTS DOWN TO 20
PERCENT OR EVEN A LITTLE LOWER. HOWEVER...WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN UNDER
10 MPH FOR MOST AREAS...AND LOOK ESPECIALLY LIGHT IN THE EAST WHERE
THE LOWEST HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO A COLD FRONT WHICH
IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY. THE MAIN MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE TIMING ISSUES AND HOW LONG TO HOLD
ONTO RAIN CHANCES INTO FRIDAY. THE 12Z GFS IS FASTER THAN THE 12Z
NAM...12Z GEM...AND 00Z ECMWF. USED A BLENDED APPROACH AND HELD ONTO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR ALL BUT THE FAR
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. STABILITY WILL BE LIMITED BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE A
50 KNOT 8H JET IMPACTING THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...AND SOME UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT AS WELL. COULD HAVE SOME
THUNDER WITH ANY SHOWERS NEAR THE FRONT...BUT WHILE OVERALL RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE IN THE 60 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...WILL ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

THE MODELS START OUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING
TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST AND SOME WEAK RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES.
WITH TIME...THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE WEST COAST AND THE RIDGING
INCREASES OVER THE ROCKIES. THE TROUGH THAT HAD MOVED EAST OF THE
AREA STALLS OVER THE EAST COAST AND IS ABLE TO PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE BACK ACROSS THE AREA
ON SUNDAY MONDAY MORNING AS A WARM FRONT. A STRONG SYSTEM IS WORKING
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS LOOKS TO BE HAVE A NEGATIVELY TILTED
UPPER TROUGH...SO THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME A
CONCERN. ONE OF THE FACTORS WILL BE THE TIME OF DAY IT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON...SO
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. THERE IS QUITE
A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...SO THINGS
COULD CHANGE QUITE A BIT BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
USED THE MODEL BLEND FOR THE TEMPERATURES AND THEN NUDGES THEM TOWARD
THE ECMWF AND MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS FOR TERRAIN EFFECTS. WITH THE TIMING
ISSUES NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST...DID NOT WANT TO GO OUT ON A LIMB.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 858 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014


VFR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A MID
LEVEL CEILING AT 10-15K FT AGL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER ABOUT 08Z.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJ
SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...JJ








000
FXUS63 KJKL 232005
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
405 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

THERE WAS VERY LITTLE FROST REPORTED THIS MORNING IN EASTERN KY.
HOWEVER...WITH CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER
30S...AND WINDS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT...WILL
CONTINUE WITH A FORECAST OF PATCHY FROST. WE EXPECT SHELTERED VALLEY
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 30S TONIGHT...BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL
ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT...AND THIS WOULD BE A LIMITING
FACTOR FOR FROST FORMATION. FROST IS MENTIONED IN A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT...AND WITH PATCHY NATURE OF ANY FROST TONIGHT THERE WILL
BE NO ADVISORY ISSUED.

FOR THURSDAY THE MAIN CONCERN IS ONCE AGAIN LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
AND THE ENHANCED THREAT FOR WILD FIRES. RELATIVE HUMIDITY ON THURSDAY
LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN TODAY WITH SOME SPOTS DOWN TO 20
PERCENT OR EVEN A LITTLE LOWER. HOWEVER...WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN UNDER
10 MPH FOR MOST AREAS...AND LOOK ESPECIALLY LIGHT IN THE EAST WHERE
THE LOWEST HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO A COLD FRONT WHICH
IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY. THE MAIN MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE TIMING ISSUES AND HOW LONG TO HOLD
ONTO RAIN CHANCES INTO FRIDAY. THE 12Z GFS IS FASTER THAN THE 12Z
NAM...12Z GEM...AND 00Z ECMWF. USED A BLENDED APPROACH AND HELD ONTO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR ALL BUT THE FAR
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. STABILITY WILL BE LIMITED BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE A
50 KNOT 8H JET IMPACTING THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...AND SOME UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT AS WELL. COULD HAVE SOME
THUNDER WITH ANY SHOWERS NEAR THE FRONT...BUT WHILE OVERALL RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE IN THE 60 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...WILL ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

THE MODELS START OUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING
TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST AND SOME WEAK RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES.
WITH TIME...THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE WEST COAST AND THE RIDGING
INCREASES OVER THE ROCKIES. THE TROUGH THAT HAD MOVED EAST OF THE
AREA STALLS OVER THE EAST COAST AND IS ABLE TO PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE BACK ACROSS THE AREA
ON SUNDAY MONDAY MORNING AS A WARM FRONT. A STRONG SYSTEM IS WORKING
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS LOOKS TO BE HAVE A NEGATIVELY TILTED
UPPER TROUGH...SO THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME A
CONCERN. ONE OF THE FACTORS WILL BE THE TIME OF DAY IT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON...SO
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. THERE IS QUITE
A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...SO THINGS
COULD CHANGE QUITE A BIT BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
USED THE MODEL BLEND FOR THE TEMPERATURES AND THEN NUDGES THEM TOWARD
THE ECMWF AND MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS FOR TERRAIN EFFECTS. WITH THE TIMING
ISSUES NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST...DID NOT WANT TO GO OUT ON A LIMB.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

VFR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A MID
LEVEL CEILING AT 10-15K FT AGL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER ABOUT 08Z.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...HAL







000
FXUS63 KJKL 232005
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
405 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

THERE WAS VERY LITTLE FROST REPORTED THIS MORNING IN EASTERN KY.
HOWEVER...WITH CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER
30S...AND WINDS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT...WILL
CONTINUE WITH A FORECAST OF PATCHY FROST. WE EXPECT SHELTERED VALLEY
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 30S TONIGHT...BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL
ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT...AND THIS WOULD BE A LIMITING
FACTOR FOR FROST FORMATION. FROST IS MENTIONED IN A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT...AND WITH PATCHY NATURE OF ANY FROST TONIGHT THERE WILL
BE NO ADVISORY ISSUED.

FOR THURSDAY THE MAIN CONCERN IS ONCE AGAIN LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
AND THE ENHANCED THREAT FOR WILD FIRES. RELATIVE HUMIDITY ON THURSDAY
LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN TODAY WITH SOME SPOTS DOWN TO 20
PERCENT OR EVEN A LITTLE LOWER. HOWEVER...WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN UNDER
10 MPH FOR MOST AREAS...AND LOOK ESPECIALLY LIGHT IN THE EAST WHERE
THE LOWEST HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO A COLD FRONT WHICH
IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY. THE MAIN MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE TIMING ISSUES AND HOW LONG TO HOLD
ONTO RAIN CHANCES INTO FRIDAY. THE 12Z GFS IS FASTER THAN THE 12Z
NAM...12Z GEM...AND 00Z ECMWF. USED A BLENDED APPROACH AND HELD ONTO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR ALL BUT THE FAR
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. STABILITY WILL BE LIMITED BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE A
50 KNOT 8H JET IMPACTING THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...AND SOME UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT AS WELL. COULD HAVE SOME
THUNDER WITH ANY SHOWERS NEAR THE FRONT...BUT WHILE OVERALL RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE IN THE 60 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...WILL ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

THE MODELS START OUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING
TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST AND SOME WEAK RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES.
WITH TIME...THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE WEST COAST AND THE RIDGING
INCREASES OVER THE ROCKIES. THE TROUGH THAT HAD MOVED EAST OF THE
AREA STALLS OVER THE EAST COAST AND IS ABLE TO PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE BACK ACROSS THE AREA
ON SUNDAY MONDAY MORNING AS A WARM FRONT. A STRONG SYSTEM IS WORKING
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS LOOKS TO BE HAVE A NEGATIVELY TILTED
UPPER TROUGH...SO THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME A
CONCERN. ONE OF THE FACTORS WILL BE THE TIME OF DAY IT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON...SO
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. THERE IS QUITE
A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...SO THINGS
COULD CHANGE QUITE A BIT BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
USED THE MODEL BLEND FOR THE TEMPERATURES AND THEN NUDGES THEM TOWARD
THE ECMWF AND MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS FOR TERRAIN EFFECTS. WITH THE TIMING
ISSUES NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST...DID NOT WANT TO GO OUT ON A LIMB.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

VFR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A MID
LEVEL CEILING AT 10-15K FT AGL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER ABOUT 08Z.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...HAL








000
FXUS63 KJKL 231911
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
311 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

THERE WAS VERY LITTLE FROST REPORTED THIS MORNING IN EASTERN KY.
HOWEVER...WITH CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER
30S...AND WINDS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT...WILL
CONTINUE WITH A FORECAST OF PATCHY FROST. WE EXPECT SHELTERED VALLEY
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 30S TONIGHT...BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL
ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT...AND THIS WOULD BE A LIMITING
FACTOR FOR FROST FORMATION. FROST IS MENTIONED IN A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT...AND WITH PATCHY NATURE OF ANY FROST TONIGHT THERE WILL
BE NO ADVISORY ISSUED.

FOR THURSDAY THE MAIN CONCERN IS ONCE AGAIN LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
AND THE ENHANCED THREAT FOR WILD FIRES. RELATIVE HUMIDITY ON THURSDAY
LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN TODAY WITH SOME SPOTS DOWN TO 20
PERCENT OR EVEN A LITTLE LOWER. HOWEVER...WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN UNDER
10 MPH FOR MOST AREAS...AND LOOK ESPECIALLY LIGHT IN THE EAST WHERE
THE LOWEST HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO A COLD FRONT WHICH
IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY. THE MAIN MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE TIMING ISSUES AND HOW LONG TO HOLD
ONTO RAIN CHANCES INTO FRIDAY. THE 12Z GFS IS FASTER THAN THE 12Z
NAM...12Z GEM...AND 00Z ECMWF. USED A BLENDED APPROACH AND HELD ONTO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR ALL BUT THE FAR
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. STABILITY WILL BE LIMITED BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE A
50 KNOT 8H JET IMPACTING THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...AND SOME UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT AS WELL. COULD HAVE SOME
THUNDER WITH ANY SHOWERS NEAR THE FRONT...BUT WHILE OVERALL RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE IN THE 60 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...WILL ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

A NEW LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

VFR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A MID
LEVEL CEILING AT 10-15K FT AGL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER ABOUT 08Z.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HAL







000
FXUS63 KJKL 231911
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
311 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

THERE WAS VERY LITTLE FROST REPORTED THIS MORNING IN EASTERN KY.
HOWEVER...WITH CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER
30S...AND WINDS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT...WILL
CONTINUE WITH A FORECAST OF PATCHY FROST. WE EXPECT SHELTERED VALLEY
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 30S TONIGHT...BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL
ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT...AND THIS WOULD BE A LIMITING
FACTOR FOR FROST FORMATION. FROST IS MENTIONED IN A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT...AND WITH PATCHY NATURE OF ANY FROST TONIGHT THERE WILL
BE NO ADVISORY ISSUED.

FOR THURSDAY THE MAIN CONCERN IS ONCE AGAIN LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
AND THE ENHANCED THREAT FOR WILD FIRES. RELATIVE HUMIDITY ON THURSDAY
LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN TODAY WITH SOME SPOTS DOWN TO 20
PERCENT OR EVEN A LITTLE LOWER. HOWEVER...WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN UNDER
10 MPH FOR MOST AREAS...AND LOOK ESPECIALLY LIGHT IN THE EAST WHERE
THE LOWEST HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO A COLD FRONT WHICH
IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY. THE MAIN MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE TIMING ISSUES AND HOW LONG TO HOLD
ONTO RAIN CHANCES INTO FRIDAY. THE 12Z GFS IS FASTER THAN THE 12Z
NAM...12Z GEM...AND 00Z ECMWF. USED A BLENDED APPROACH AND HELD ONTO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR ALL BUT THE FAR
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. STABILITY WILL BE LIMITED BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE A
50 KNOT 8H JET IMPACTING THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...AND SOME UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT AS WELL. COULD HAVE SOME
THUNDER WITH ANY SHOWERS NEAR THE FRONT...BUT WHILE OVERALL RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE IN THE 60 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...WILL ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

A NEW LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

VFR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A MID
LEVEL CEILING AT 10-15K FT AGL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER ABOUT 08Z.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HAL








000
FXUS63 KJKL 231638
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1238 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1238 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

MADE MINOR GRID CHANGES TO INCORPORATE LATEST OBS BLENDING INTO THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST. THERE ARE NO SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE
HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

A VERY QUIET AND MILD WEATHER PATTERN ON TAP IN THE SHORT TERM. A
LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND TOMORROW. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH
TODAY...BUT WE SHOULD EXPERIENCE A NICE WARM UP ANYWAY AS THE COOL
AIR MASS MODIFIED BENEATH CLEAR SKIES. A WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BRING AND INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...BUT
LITTLE MORE THAN THAT AS THE BOUNDARY WILL BE STARVED FOR MOISTURE AS
IT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. PATCHY VALLEY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS OUR DEEPER VALLEYS
AGAIN DROP IN THE MID 30S. TODAY/S HIGHS WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT...WITH
READINGS TOPPING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. WITH WINDS HAVING NOT DROPPED
OFF QUITE AS MUCH AS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES AROUND THE
AREA ALSO STAYED A BIT WARMER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...PARTICULARLY
ON THE RIDGES. THEREFORE...TODAY/S FORECAST HIGHS WERE INCREASED BY A
DEGREE ACROSS THE BOARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DIFFERENCE AND PER THE
WARMER MAVMOS GUIDANCE. WITH WINDS GOING NEAR CALM AND SKIES MOSTLY
CLEAR...A MODEST RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT WILL AGAIN BE ON TAP FOR
TONIGHT...WITH OUR RIDGES FALLING INTO THE LOWER 40S AND THE
SURROUNDING VALLEYS LIKELY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 30S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE PATTERN
AS IT SLOWS SIGNIFICANTLY WITH TIME. INITIALLY PROGRESSIVE...WEAK
SOUTHEAST RIDGING OVER KENTUCKY WILL GIVE WAY TO A FULL LATITUDE
TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE PLAINS BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE MODELS ARE
OF TWO MINDS WITH THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS
AND NAM ARE FASTER AND FLATTER THAN THE CMC AND ECMWF. THE TREND HAS
BEEN TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THIS TROUGH SO WILL FAVOR THE LATTER
BLEND. THIS TROUGH DOES GO THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY EVENING
FOLLOWED BY FLAT RIDING MOVING INTO THE REGION TO START THE WEEKEND.
THIS RIDGE WILL BECOME PUMPED BY SUNDAY MORNING UP BY A DEEP TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. IT IS THIS TROUGH THAT WILL
DRIVE THE WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK. AT THE START...THE ECMWF IS QUICKER AND SLIGHTLY
DEEPER WITH THIS LOW THAN THE GFS AND CMC. HOWEVER...FOR THE ECMWF
THAT SPEED IS TRANSLATED MORE NORTH INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER WHILE THE OTHER MODELS ARE CUTTING
OFF THEIR LOW OVER FAR WEST KANSAS AT 00Z MONDAY. MEANWHILE...EAST
KENTUCKY WILL ENJOY NEAR NORMAL...OR JUST ABOVE...TEMPERATURES TO
START THE NEW WORK WEEK THANKS TO DOWNSTREAM RIDGING. THAT STARTS TO
CHANGE LATER MONDAY AND ON TUESDAY...THOUGH...AS THE LARGE CLOSED
LOW AMBLES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SPREADING HEIGHT FALLS
INTO KENTUCKY ALONG WITH EJECTING BITS OF ENERGY. THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES REMAIN AT 00Z WEDNESDAY WITH THE GFS HAVING A SEEMINGLY
MORE REASONABLE DEEP LOW CENTERED OVER PAH WHILE THE ECMWF IS CLOSER
TO THE QUAD CITIES. AT THAT POINT...THE CENTER OF THE LOW IS ALMOST
IMMATERIAL WITH LOW HEIGHTS AND SPIRALLY BITS OF ENERGY DOMINATING
THE MID LEVELS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE NATION...AS THE
PATTERN CRAWLS TO A HALT. FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT...A GENERAL MODEL
BLEND IS REASONABLE...BUT WILL ALSO LEAN A TAD TOWARD THE MORE
CONSISTENT GFS SOLUTION.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A COLD FRONT CROSSING EAST KENTUCKY
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND A QUICK SHOT
OF NEEDED RAINFALL. SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWS INTO SATURDAY...
BUT DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP READINGS ON THE WARM
SIDE OF NORMAL. THE LARGE SFC LOW DEVELOPING TO THE WEST WILL
ATTEMPT TO LIFT A WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY ON SUNDAY
WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY WEST. A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVES ON MONDAY AND CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY WHEN THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM ROLLS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND SWEEPS ANOTHER FRONT INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL HELP TO
FOCUS THE BUILDING GULF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AND MAKE FOR A DAMP
AND EVENTUALLY COOL MID WEEK PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WHEN THE LOW TAKES UP RESIDENCE...NEARLY OVERHEAD. THE
ONLY SILVER LINING FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK OF CLOUDY...WET...AND COOL
WX WILL BE THE AFFECT IT HAS ON EASING ANY LINGERING/ROGUE FIRE
CONCERNS.

THE CR GRID LOAD CAME IN REASONABLE FOR THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED...
THOUGH DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION LATE
IN THE PERIOD. ALSO FINE TUNED THE LOW TEMP GRIDS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT TO ADD IN MORE RIDGE AND VALLEY DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

VFR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A MID
LEVEL CEILING AT 10-15K FT AGL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER ABOUT 08Z.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...HAL









000
FXUS63 KJKL 231638
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1238 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1238 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

MADE MINOR GRID CHANGES TO INCORPORATE LATEST OBS BLENDING INTO THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST. THERE ARE NO SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE
HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

A VERY QUIET AND MILD WEATHER PATTERN ON TAP IN THE SHORT TERM. A
LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND TOMORROW. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH
TODAY...BUT WE SHOULD EXPERIENCE A NICE WARM UP ANYWAY AS THE COOL
AIR MASS MODIFIED BENEATH CLEAR SKIES. A WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BRING AND INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...BUT
LITTLE MORE THAN THAT AS THE BOUNDARY WILL BE STARVED FOR MOISTURE AS
IT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. PATCHY VALLEY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS OUR DEEPER VALLEYS
AGAIN DROP IN THE MID 30S. TODAY/S HIGHS WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT...WITH
READINGS TOPPING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. WITH WINDS HAVING NOT DROPPED
OFF QUITE AS MUCH AS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES AROUND THE
AREA ALSO STAYED A BIT WARMER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...PARTICULARLY
ON THE RIDGES. THEREFORE...TODAY/S FORECAST HIGHS WERE INCREASED BY A
DEGREE ACROSS THE BOARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DIFFERENCE AND PER THE
WARMER MAVMOS GUIDANCE. WITH WINDS GOING NEAR CALM AND SKIES MOSTLY
CLEAR...A MODEST RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT WILL AGAIN BE ON TAP FOR
TONIGHT...WITH OUR RIDGES FALLING INTO THE LOWER 40S AND THE
SURROUNDING VALLEYS LIKELY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 30S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE PATTERN
AS IT SLOWS SIGNIFICANTLY WITH TIME. INITIALLY PROGRESSIVE...WEAK
SOUTHEAST RIDGING OVER KENTUCKY WILL GIVE WAY TO A FULL LATITUDE
TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE PLAINS BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE MODELS ARE
OF TWO MINDS WITH THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS
AND NAM ARE FASTER AND FLATTER THAN THE CMC AND ECMWF. THE TREND HAS
BEEN TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THIS TROUGH SO WILL FAVOR THE LATTER
BLEND. THIS TROUGH DOES GO THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY EVENING
FOLLOWED BY FLAT RIDING MOVING INTO THE REGION TO START THE WEEKEND.
THIS RIDGE WILL BECOME PUMPED BY SUNDAY MORNING UP BY A DEEP TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. IT IS THIS TROUGH THAT WILL
DRIVE THE WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK. AT THE START...THE ECMWF IS QUICKER AND SLIGHTLY
DEEPER WITH THIS LOW THAN THE GFS AND CMC. HOWEVER...FOR THE ECMWF
THAT SPEED IS TRANSLATED MORE NORTH INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER WHILE THE OTHER MODELS ARE CUTTING
OFF THEIR LOW OVER FAR WEST KANSAS AT 00Z MONDAY. MEANWHILE...EAST
KENTUCKY WILL ENJOY NEAR NORMAL...OR JUST ABOVE...TEMPERATURES TO
START THE NEW WORK WEEK THANKS TO DOWNSTREAM RIDGING. THAT STARTS TO
CHANGE LATER MONDAY AND ON TUESDAY...THOUGH...AS THE LARGE CLOSED
LOW AMBLES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SPREADING HEIGHT FALLS
INTO KENTUCKY ALONG WITH EJECTING BITS OF ENERGY. THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES REMAIN AT 00Z WEDNESDAY WITH THE GFS HAVING A SEEMINGLY
MORE REASONABLE DEEP LOW CENTERED OVER PAH WHILE THE ECMWF IS CLOSER
TO THE QUAD CITIES. AT THAT POINT...THE CENTER OF THE LOW IS ALMOST
IMMATERIAL WITH LOW HEIGHTS AND SPIRALLY BITS OF ENERGY DOMINATING
THE MID LEVELS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE NATION...AS THE
PATTERN CRAWLS TO A HALT. FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT...A GENERAL MODEL
BLEND IS REASONABLE...BUT WILL ALSO LEAN A TAD TOWARD THE MORE
CONSISTENT GFS SOLUTION.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A COLD FRONT CROSSING EAST KENTUCKY
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND A QUICK SHOT
OF NEEDED RAINFALL. SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWS INTO SATURDAY...
BUT DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP READINGS ON THE WARM
SIDE OF NORMAL. THE LARGE SFC LOW DEVELOPING TO THE WEST WILL
ATTEMPT TO LIFT A WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY ON SUNDAY
WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY WEST. A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVES ON MONDAY AND CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY WHEN THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM ROLLS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND SWEEPS ANOTHER FRONT INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL HELP TO
FOCUS THE BUILDING GULF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AND MAKE FOR A DAMP
AND EVENTUALLY COOL MID WEEK PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WHEN THE LOW TAKES UP RESIDENCE...NEARLY OVERHEAD. THE
ONLY SILVER LINING FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK OF CLOUDY...WET...AND COOL
WX WILL BE THE AFFECT IT HAS ON EASING ANY LINGERING/ROGUE FIRE
CONCERNS.

THE CR GRID LOAD CAME IN REASONABLE FOR THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED...
THOUGH DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION LATE
IN THE PERIOD. ALSO FINE TUNED THE LOW TEMP GRIDS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT TO ADD IN MORE RIDGE AND VALLEY DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

VFR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A MID
LEVEL CEILING AT 10-15K FT AGL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER ABOUT 08Z.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...HAL








000
FXUS63 KJKL 231155 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
755 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE
HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

A VERY QUIET AND MILD WEATHER PATTERN ON TAP IN THE SHORT TERM. A
LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND TOMORROW. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH
TODAY...BUT WE SHOULD EXPERIENCE A NICE WARM UP ANYWAY AS THE COOL
AIR MASS MODIFIED BENEATH CLEAR SKIES. A WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BRING AND INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...BUT
LITTLE MORE THAN THAT AS THE BOUNDARY WILL BE STARVED FOR MOISTURE AS
IT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. PATCHY VALLEY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS OUR DEEPER VALLEYS
AGAIN DROP IN THE MID 30S. TODAY/S HIGHS WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT...WITH
READINGS TOPPING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. WITH WINDS HAVING NOT DROPPED
OFF QUITE AS MUCH AS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES AROUND THE
AREA ALSO STAYED A BIT WARMER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...PARTICULARLY
ON THE RIDGES. THEREFORE...TODAY/S FORECAST HIGHS WERE INCREASED BY A
DEGREE ACROSS THE BOARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DIFFERENCE AND PER THE
WARMER MAVMOS GUIDANCE. WITH WINDS GOING NEAR CALM AND SKIES MOSTLY
CLEAR...A MODEST RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT WILL AGAIN BE ON TAP FOR
TONIGHT...WITH OUR RIDGES FALLING INTO THE LOWER 40S AND THE
SURROUNDING VALLEYS LIKELY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 30S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE PATTERN
AS IT SLOWS SIGNIFICANTLY WITH TIME. INITIALLY PROGRESSIVE...WEAK
SOUTHEAST RIDGING OVER KENTUCKY WILL GIVE WAY TO A FULL LATITUDE
TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE PLAINS BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE MODELS ARE
OF TWO MINDS WITH THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS
AND NAM ARE FASTER AND FLATTER THAN THE CMC AND ECMWF. THE TREND HAS
BEEN TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THIS TROUGH SO WILL FAVOR THE LATTER
BLEND. THIS TROUGH DOES GO THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY EVENING
FOLLOWED BY FLAT RIDING MOVING INTO THE REGION TO START THE WEEKEND.
THIS RIDGE WILL BECOME PUMPED BY SUNDAY MORNING UP BY A DEEP TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. IT IS THIS TROUGH THAT WILL
DRIVE THE WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK. AT THE START...THE ECMWF IS QUICKER AND SLIGHTLY
DEEPER WITH THIS LOW THAN THE GFS AND CMC. HOWEVER...FOR THE ECMWF
THAT SPEED IS TRANSLATED MORE NORTH INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER WHILE THE OTHER MODELS ARE CUTTING
OFF THEIR LOW OVER FAR WEST KANSAS AT 00Z MONDAY. MEANWHILE...EAST
KENTUCKY WILL ENJOY NEAR NORMAL...OR JUST ABOVE...TEMPERATURES TO
START THE NEW WORK WEEK THANKS TO DOWNSTREAM RIDGING. THAT STARTS TO
CHANGE LATER MONDAY AND ON TUESDAY...THOUGH...AS THE LARGE CLOSED
LOW AMBLES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SPREADING HEIGHT FALLS
INTO KENTUCKY ALONG WITH EJECTING BITS OF ENERGY. THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES REMAIN AT 00Z WEDNESDAY WITH THE GFS HAVING A SEEMINGLY
MORE REASONABLE DEEP LOW CENTERED OVER PAH WHILE THE ECMWF IS CLOSER
TO THE QUAD CITIES. AT THAT POINT...THE CENTER OF THE LOW IS ALMOST
IMMATERIAL WITH LOW HEIGHTS AND SPIRALLY BITS OF ENERGY DOMINATING
THE MID LEVELS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE NATION...AS THE
PATTERN CRAWLS TO A HALT. FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT...A GENERAL MODEL
BLEND IS REASONABLE...BUT WILL ALSO LEAN A TAD TOWARD THE MORE
CONSISTENT GFS SOLUTION.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A COLD FRONT CROSSING EAST KENTUCKY
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND A QUICK SHOT
OF NEEDED RAINFALL. SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWS INTO SATURDAY...
BUT DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP READINGS ON THE WARM
SIDE OF NORMAL. THE LARGE SFC LOW DEVELOPING TO THE WEST WILL
ATTEMPT TO LIFT A WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY ON SUNDAY
WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY WEST. A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVES ON MONDAY AND CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY WHEN THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM ROLLS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND SWEEPS ANOTHER FRONT INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL HELP TO
FOCUS THE BUILDING GULF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AND MAKE FOR A DAMP
AND EVENTUALLY COOL MID WEEK PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WHEN THE LOW TAKES UP RESIDENCE...NEARLY OVERHEAD. THE
ONLY SILVER LINING FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK OF CLOUDY...WET...AND COOL
WX WILL BE THE AFFECT IT HAS ON EASING ANY LINGERING/ROGUE FIRE
CONCERNS.

THE CR GRID LOAD CAME IN REASONABLE FOR THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED...
THOUGH DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION LATE
IN THE PERIOD. ALSO FINE TUNED THE LOW TEMP GRIDS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT TO ADD IN MORE RIDGE AND VALLEY DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE ON TAP THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. ASIDE FROM THAT...IT SHOULD BE SMOOTH
SAILING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...AR/GREIF






000
FXUS63 KJKL 231155 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
755 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE
HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

A VERY QUIET AND MILD WEATHER PATTERN ON TAP IN THE SHORT TERM. A
LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND TOMORROW. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH
TODAY...BUT WE SHOULD EXPERIENCE A NICE WARM UP ANYWAY AS THE COOL
AIR MASS MODIFIED BENEATH CLEAR SKIES. A WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BRING AND INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...BUT
LITTLE MORE THAN THAT AS THE BOUNDARY WILL BE STARVED FOR MOISTURE AS
IT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. PATCHY VALLEY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS OUR DEEPER VALLEYS
AGAIN DROP IN THE MID 30S. TODAY/S HIGHS WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT...WITH
READINGS TOPPING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. WITH WINDS HAVING NOT DROPPED
OFF QUITE AS MUCH AS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES AROUND THE
AREA ALSO STAYED A BIT WARMER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...PARTICULARLY
ON THE RIDGES. THEREFORE...TODAY/S FORECAST HIGHS WERE INCREASED BY A
DEGREE ACROSS THE BOARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DIFFERENCE AND PER THE
WARMER MAVMOS GUIDANCE. WITH WINDS GOING NEAR CALM AND SKIES MOSTLY
CLEAR...A MODEST RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT WILL AGAIN BE ON TAP FOR
TONIGHT...WITH OUR RIDGES FALLING INTO THE LOWER 40S AND THE
SURROUNDING VALLEYS LIKELY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 30S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE PATTERN
AS IT SLOWS SIGNIFICANTLY WITH TIME. INITIALLY PROGRESSIVE...WEAK
SOUTHEAST RIDGING OVER KENTUCKY WILL GIVE WAY TO A FULL LATITUDE
TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE PLAINS BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE MODELS ARE
OF TWO MINDS WITH THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS
AND NAM ARE FASTER AND FLATTER THAN THE CMC AND ECMWF. THE TREND HAS
BEEN TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THIS TROUGH SO WILL FAVOR THE LATTER
BLEND. THIS TROUGH DOES GO THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY EVENING
FOLLOWED BY FLAT RIDING MOVING INTO THE REGION TO START THE WEEKEND.
THIS RIDGE WILL BECOME PUMPED BY SUNDAY MORNING UP BY A DEEP TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. IT IS THIS TROUGH THAT WILL
DRIVE THE WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK. AT THE START...THE ECMWF IS QUICKER AND SLIGHTLY
DEEPER WITH THIS LOW THAN THE GFS AND CMC. HOWEVER...FOR THE ECMWF
THAT SPEED IS TRANSLATED MORE NORTH INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER WHILE THE OTHER MODELS ARE CUTTING
OFF THEIR LOW OVER FAR WEST KANSAS AT 00Z MONDAY. MEANWHILE...EAST
KENTUCKY WILL ENJOY NEAR NORMAL...OR JUST ABOVE...TEMPERATURES TO
START THE NEW WORK WEEK THANKS TO DOWNSTREAM RIDGING. THAT STARTS TO
CHANGE LATER MONDAY AND ON TUESDAY...THOUGH...AS THE LARGE CLOSED
LOW AMBLES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SPREADING HEIGHT FALLS
INTO KENTUCKY ALONG WITH EJECTING BITS OF ENERGY. THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES REMAIN AT 00Z WEDNESDAY WITH THE GFS HAVING A SEEMINGLY
MORE REASONABLE DEEP LOW CENTERED OVER PAH WHILE THE ECMWF IS CLOSER
TO THE QUAD CITIES. AT THAT POINT...THE CENTER OF THE LOW IS ALMOST
IMMATERIAL WITH LOW HEIGHTS AND SPIRALLY BITS OF ENERGY DOMINATING
THE MID LEVELS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE NATION...AS THE
PATTERN CRAWLS TO A HALT. FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT...A GENERAL MODEL
BLEND IS REASONABLE...BUT WILL ALSO LEAN A TAD TOWARD THE MORE
CONSISTENT GFS SOLUTION.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A COLD FRONT CROSSING EAST KENTUCKY
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND A QUICK SHOT
OF NEEDED RAINFALL. SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWS INTO SATURDAY...
BUT DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP READINGS ON THE WARM
SIDE OF NORMAL. THE LARGE SFC LOW DEVELOPING TO THE WEST WILL
ATTEMPT TO LIFT A WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY ON SUNDAY
WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY WEST. A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVES ON MONDAY AND CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY WHEN THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM ROLLS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND SWEEPS ANOTHER FRONT INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL HELP TO
FOCUS THE BUILDING GULF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AND MAKE FOR A DAMP
AND EVENTUALLY COOL MID WEEK PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WHEN THE LOW TAKES UP RESIDENCE...NEARLY OVERHEAD. THE
ONLY SILVER LINING FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK OF CLOUDY...WET...AND COOL
WX WILL BE THE AFFECT IT HAS ON EASING ANY LINGERING/ROGUE FIRE
CONCERNS.

THE CR GRID LOAD CAME IN REASONABLE FOR THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED...
THOUGH DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION LATE
IN THE PERIOD. ALSO FINE TUNED THE LOW TEMP GRIDS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT TO ADD IN MORE RIDGE AND VALLEY DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE ON TAP THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. ASIDE FROM THAT...IT SHOULD BE SMOOTH
SAILING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...AR/GREIF





000
FXUS63 KJKL 230715 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
315 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

A VERY QUIET AND MILD WEATHER PATTERN ON TAP IN THE SHORT TERM. A
LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND TOMORROW. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH
TODAY...BUT WE SHOULD EXPERIENCE A NICE WARM UP ANYWAY AS THE COOL
AIR MASS MODIFIED BENEATH CLEAR SKIES. A WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BRING AND INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...BUT
LITTLE MORE THAN THAT AS THE BOUNDARY WILL BE STARVED FOR MOISTURE AS
IT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. PATCHY VALLEY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS OUR DEEPER VALLEYS
AGAIN DROP IN THE MID 30S. TODAYS HIGHS WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT...WITH
READINGS TOPPING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. WITH WINDS HAVING NOT DROPPED
OFF QUITE AS MUCH AS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES AROUND THE
AREA ALSO STAYED A BIT WARMER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...PARTICULARLY
ON THE RIDGES. THEREFORE...TODAYS FORECAST HIGHS WERE INCREASED BY A
DEGREE ACROSS THE BOARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DIFFERENCE AND PER THE
WARMER MAVMOS GUIDANCE. WITH WINDS GOING NEAR CALM AND SKIES MOSTLY
CLEAR...A MODEST RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT WILL AGAIN BE ON TAP FOR
TONIGHT...WITH OUR RIDGES FALLING INTO THE LOWER 40S AND THE
SURROUNDING VALLEYS LIKELY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 30S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE PATTERN
AS IT SLOWS SIGNIFICANTLY WITH TIME. INITIALLY PROGRESSIVE...WEAK
SOUTHEAST RIDGING OVER KENTUCKY WILL GIVE WAY TO A FULL LATITUDE
TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE PLAINS BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE MODELS ARE
OF TWO MINDS WITH THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS
AND NAM ARE FASTER AND FLATTER THAN THE CMC AND ECMWF. THE TREND HAS
BEEN TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THIS TROUGH SO WILL FAVOR THE LATTER
BLEND. THIS TROUGH DOES GO THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY EVENING
FOLLOWED BY FLAT RIDING MOVING INTO THE REGION TO START THE WEEKEND.
THIS RIDGE WILL BECOME PUMPED BY SUNDAY MORNING UP BY A DEEP TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. IT IS THIS TROUGH THAT WILL
DRIVE THE WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK. AT THE START...THE ECMWF IS QUICKER AND SLIGHTLY
DEEPER WITH THIS LOW THAN THE GFS AND CMC. HOWEVER...FOR THE ECMWF
THAT SPEED IS TRANSLATED MORE NORTH INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER WHILE THE OTHER MODELS ARE CUTTING
OFF THEIR LOW OVER FAR WEST KANSAS AT 00Z MONDAY. MEANWHILE...EAST
KENTUCKY WILL ENJOY NEAR NORMAL...OR JUST ABOVE...TEMPERATURES TO
START THE NEW WORK WEEK THANKS TO DOWNSTREAM RIDGING. THAT STARTS TO
CHANGE LATER MONDAY AND ON TUESDAY...THOUGH...AS THE LARGE CLOSED
LOW AMBLES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SPREADING HEIGHT FALLS
INTO KENTUCKY ALONG WITH EJECTING BITS OF ENERGY. THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES REMAIN AT 00Z WEDNESDAY WITH THE GFS HAVING A SEEMINGLY
MORE REASONABLE DEEP LOW CENTERED OVER PAH WHILE THE ECMWF IS CLOSER
TO THE QUAD CITIES. AT THAT POINT...THE CENTER OF THE LOW IS ALMOST
IMMATERIAL WITH LOW HEIGHTS AND SPIRALLY BITS OF ENERGY DOMINATING
THE MID LEVELS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE NATION...AS THE
PATTERN CRAWLS TO A HALT. FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT...A GENERAL MODEL
BLEND IS REASONABLE...BUT WILL ALSO LEAN A TAD TOWARD THE MORE
CONSISTENT GFS SOLUTION.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A COLD FRONT CROSSING EAST KENTUCKY
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND A QUICK SHOT
OF NEEDED RAINFALL. SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWS INTO SATURDAY...
BUT DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP READINGS ON THE WARM
SIDE OF NORMAL. THE LARGE SFC LOW DEVELOPING TO THE WEST WILL
ATTEMPT TO LIFT A WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY ON SUNDAY
WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY WEST. A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVES ON MONDAY AND CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY WHEN THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM ROLLS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND SWEEPS ANOTHER FRONT INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL HELP TO
FOCUS THE BUILDING GULF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AND MAKE FOR A DAMP
AND EVENTUALLY COOL MID WEEK PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WHEN THE LOW TAKES UP RESIDENCE...NEARLY OVERHEAD. THE
ONLY SILVER LINING FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK OF CLOUDY...WET...AND COOL
WX WILL BE THE AFFECT IT HAS ON EASING ANY LINGERING/ROGUE FIRE
CONCERNS.

THE CR GRID LOAD CAME IN REASONABLE FOR THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED...
THOUGH DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION LATE
IN THE PERIOD. ALSO FINE TUNED THE LOW TEMP GRIDS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT TO ADD IN MORE RIDGE AND VALLEY DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE ON TAP THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. ASIDE FROM THAT...IT SHOULD BE SMOOTH
SAILING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...AR





000
FXUS63 KJKL 230715 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
315 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

A VERY QUIET AND MILD WEATHER PATTERN ON TAP IN THE SHORT TERM. A
LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND TOMORROW. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH
TODAY...BUT WE SHOULD EXPERIENCE A NICE WARM UP ANYWAY AS THE COOL
AIR MASS MODIFIED BENEATH CLEAR SKIES. A WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BRING AND INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...BUT
LITTLE MORE THAN THAT AS THE BOUNDARY WILL BE STARVED FOR MOISTURE AS
IT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. PATCHY VALLEY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS OUR DEEPER VALLEYS
AGAIN DROP IN THE MID 30S. TODAYS HIGHS WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT...WITH
READINGS TOPPING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. WITH WINDS HAVING NOT DROPPED
OFF QUITE AS MUCH AS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES AROUND THE
AREA ALSO STAYED A BIT WARMER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...PARTICULARLY
ON THE RIDGES. THEREFORE...TODAYS FORECAST HIGHS WERE INCREASED BY A
DEGREE ACROSS THE BOARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DIFFERENCE AND PER THE
WARMER MAVMOS GUIDANCE. WITH WINDS GOING NEAR CALM AND SKIES MOSTLY
CLEAR...A MODEST RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT WILL AGAIN BE ON TAP FOR
TONIGHT...WITH OUR RIDGES FALLING INTO THE LOWER 40S AND THE
SURROUNDING VALLEYS LIKELY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 30S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE PATTERN
AS IT SLOWS SIGNIFICANTLY WITH TIME. INITIALLY PROGRESSIVE...WEAK
SOUTHEAST RIDGING OVER KENTUCKY WILL GIVE WAY TO A FULL LATITUDE
TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE PLAINS BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE MODELS ARE
OF TWO MINDS WITH THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS
AND NAM ARE FASTER AND FLATTER THAN THE CMC AND ECMWF. THE TREND HAS
BEEN TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THIS TROUGH SO WILL FAVOR THE LATTER
BLEND. THIS TROUGH DOES GO THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY EVENING
FOLLOWED BY FLAT RIDING MOVING INTO THE REGION TO START THE WEEKEND.
THIS RIDGE WILL BECOME PUMPED BY SUNDAY MORNING UP BY A DEEP TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. IT IS THIS TROUGH THAT WILL
DRIVE THE WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK. AT THE START...THE ECMWF IS QUICKER AND SLIGHTLY
DEEPER WITH THIS LOW THAN THE GFS AND CMC. HOWEVER...FOR THE ECMWF
THAT SPEED IS TRANSLATED MORE NORTH INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER WHILE THE OTHER MODELS ARE CUTTING
OFF THEIR LOW OVER FAR WEST KANSAS AT 00Z MONDAY. MEANWHILE...EAST
KENTUCKY WILL ENJOY NEAR NORMAL...OR JUST ABOVE...TEMPERATURES TO
START THE NEW WORK WEEK THANKS TO DOWNSTREAM RIDGING. THAT STARTS TO
CHANGE LATER MONDAY AND ON TUESDAY...THOUGH...AS THE LARGE CLOSED
LOW AMBLES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SPREADING HEIGHT FALLS
INTO KENTUCKY ALONG WITH EJECTING BITS OF ENERGY. THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES REMAIN AT 00Z WEDNESDAY WITH THE GFS HAVING A SEEMINGLY
MORE REASONABLE DEEP LOW CENTERED OVER PAH WHILE THE ECMWF IS CLOSER
TO THE QUAD CITIES. AT THAT POINT...THE CENTER OF THE LOW IS ALMOST
IMMATERIAL WITH LOW HEIGHTS AND SPIRALLY BITS OF ENERGY DOMINATING
THE MID LEVELS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE NATION...AS THE
PATTERN CRAWLS TO A HALT. FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT...A GENERAL MODEL
BLEND IS REASONABLE...BUT WILL ALSO LEAN A TAD TOWARD THE MORE
CONSISTENT GFS SOLUTION.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A COLD FRONT CROSSING EAST KENTUCKY
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND A QUICK SHOT
OF NEEDED RAINFALL. SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWS INTO SATURDAY...
BUT DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP READINGS ON THE WARM
SIDE OF NORMAL. THE LARGE SFC LOW DEVELOPING TO THE WEST WILL
ATTEMPT TO LIFT A WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY ON SUNDAY
WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY WEST. A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVES ON MONDAY AND CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY WHEN THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM ROLLS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND SWEEPS ANOTHER FRONT INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL HELP TO
FOCUS THE BUILDING GULF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AND MAKE FOR A DAMP
AND EVENTUALLY COOL MID WEEK PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WHEN THE LOW TAKES UP RESIDENCE...NEARLY OVERHEAD. THE
ONLY SILVER LINING FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK OF CLOUDY...WET...AND COOL
WX WILL BE THE AFFECT IT HAS ON EASING ANY LINGERING/ROGUE FIRE
CONCERNS.

THE CR GRID LOAD CAME IN REASONABLE FOR THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED...
THOUGH DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION LATE
IN THE PERIOD. ALSO FINE TUNED THE LOW TEMP GRIDS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT TO ADD IN MORE RIDGE AND VALLEY DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE ON TAP THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. ASIDE FROM THAT...IT SHOULD BE SMOOTH
SAILING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...AR






000
FXUS63 KJKL 230708
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
308 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

A VERY QUIET AND MILD WEATHER PATTERN ON TAP IN THE SHORT TERM. A
LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND TOMORROW. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH
TODAY...BUT WE SHOULD EXPERIENCE A NICE WARM UP ANYWAY AS THE COOL
AIR MASS MODIFIED BENEATH CLEAR SKIES. A WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BRING AND INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...BUT
LITTLE MORE THAN THAT AS THE BOUNDARY WILL BE STARVED FOR MOISTURE AS
IT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. PATCHY VALLEY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS OUR DEEPER VALLEYS
AGAIN DROP IN THE MID 30S. TODAYS HIGHS WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT...WITH
READINGS TOPPING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. WITH WINDS HAVING NOT DROPPED
OFF QUITE AS MUCH AS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES AROUND THE
AREA ALSO STAYED A BIT WARMER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...PARTICULARLY
ON THE RIDGES. THEREFORE...TODAYS FORECAST HIGHS WERE INCREASED BY A
DEGREE ACROSS THE BOARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DIFFERENCE AND PER THE
WARMER MAVMOS GUIDANCE. WITH WINDS GOING NEAR CALM AND SKIES MOSTLY
CLEAR...A MODEST RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT WILL AGAIN BE ON TAP FOR
TONIGHT...WITH OUR RIDGES FALLING INTO THE LOWER 40S AND THE
SURROUNDING VALLEYS LIKELY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 30S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

AN EXTENDED DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE ON TAP THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. ASIDE FROM THAT...IT SHOULD BE SMOOTH
SAILING.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...AR








000
FXUS63 KJKL 230708
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
308 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

A VERY QUIET AND MILD WEATHER PATTERN ON TAP IN THE SHORT TERM. A
LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND TOMORROW. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH
TODAY...BUT WE SHOULD EXPERIENCE A NICE WARM UP ANYWAY AS THE COOL
AIR MASS MODIFIED BENEATH CLEAR SKIES. A WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BRING AND INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...BUT
LITTLE MORE THAN THAT AS THE BOUNDARY WILL BE STARVED FOR MOISTURE AS
IT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. PATCHY VALLEY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS OUR DEEPER VALLEYS
AGAIN DROP IN THE MID 30S. TODAYS HIGHS WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT...WITH
READINGS TOPPING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. WITH WINDS HAVING NOT DROPPED
OFF QUITE AS MUCH AS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES AROUND THE
AREA ALSO STAYED A BIT WARMER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...PARTICULARLY
ON THE RIDGES. THEREFORE...TODAYS FORECAST HIGHS WERE INCREASED BY A
DEGREE ACROSS THE BOARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DIFFERENCE AND PER THE
WARMER MAVMOS GUIDANCE. WITH WINDS GOING NEAR CALM AND SKIES MOSTLY
CLEAR...A MODEST RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT WILL AGAIN BE ON TAP FOR
TONIGHT...WITH OUR RIDGES FALLING INTO THE LOWER 40S AND THE
SURROUNDING VALLEYS LIKELY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 30S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

AN EXTENDED DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE ON TAP THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. ASIDE FROM THAT...IT SHOULD BE SMOOTH
SAILING.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...AR







000
FXUS63 KJKL 230530
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
130 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

FORECAST STILL PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. LATEST OBS SHOW WINDS OF 5 TO 10
KTS STILL BLOWING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. WITH CLEAR SKIES
OVERHEAD...THE RIDGES SHOULD STAY QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN THE
ADJACENT VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. SOME OF OUR DEEPER VALLEYS COULD STILL
DROP INTO THE MID 30S BY EARLY THIS MORNING...KEEPING THE POSSIBILITY
OF PATCHY FROST IN PLAY. AT THIS TIME...THE FORMATION OF FROST DOES
NOT LOOK QUITE AS PROMISING AS IT DID EARLIER TONIGHT...BUT WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 30S IN SOME OF OUR VALLEYS...THE POSSIBILITY IS
STILL THERE. ALL THAT BEING SAID...THE FORECAST OVERALL IS IN GOOD
SHAPE...SO NO UPDATE IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1114 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURES AGAIN DUE TO THE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS. STILL
EXPECTING THEM TO EVENTUALLY DROP OFF AND DECOUPLE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 820 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL
TRENDS. THE SHOWERS HAVE ALL MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AND WILL BE
EXPECTING A QUIET NIGHT. THE WINDS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOW TO DIE
DOWN TONIGHT AND SO THE TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO BEEN SLOW TO DROP
BECAUSE OF THE MIXING. EXPECTING THE WINDS TO DIE DOWN AND THE TEMPS
TO START DROPPING FASTER OVER THE NEXT TWO HOURS. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

CURRENT CONDITIONS AS OF 19Z FEATURE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS HANGING
AROUND THE AREA AS THE FRONT STILL LIES JUST TO THE WEST AS IT BEGINS
TO CROSS THE I-75 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY BRING AN END TO
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. OBS UPSTREAM HAVE DEWS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 30S MOVING INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS. THIS
AIR MASS WILL BE MOVING IN OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR TONIGHT AND WITH
CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE BLUEGRASS AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS.
THEREFORE...WILL GO WITH AN SPS MENTIONING THE FROST POTENTIAL
TONIGHT. THIS WILL MOSTLY BE THE VALLEYS AS SOME OF THE RIDGE TONIGHT
WILL KEEP SOME STRONGER WINDS...AND WILL SHOW A BIT OF A RIDGE
VALLEY SPLIT TONIGHT BUT ONLY AROUND A 5 DEGREE DIFFERENCE.

HEADING INTO TOMORROW...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY DID NOT PROVIDE
MUCH OF A SOAKING...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SCATTERED NATURE TODAY AND
SO THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TONIGHT WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH ABOVE
70 PERCENT IN MOST PLACES. AS WELL...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A DRY
POCKET OF AIR ALOFT TOMORROW TO MIX DOWN AND WHILE WE WILL LIKELY NOT
MIX INTO THE STRONGER WINDS ABOVE...RH WILL STILL BE DOWN INTO THE
CRITICAL VALUES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND SO WILL MENTION FIRE WEATHER
IN THE SPS AS WELL. WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT...WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND
KEEP SKY COVER MOSTLY CLEAR. THE COOLER AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT AS LOW TEMPS WILL GET DOWN INTO THE LOW
40S ON THE RIDGES AND INTO THE LOW 30S IN SOME OF THE DEEPER VALLEYS.
THE RIDGE SHIFTING THROUGH THE AREA WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER MOSTLY
CLEAR AND ANOTHER NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ENSUE AS A RIDGE
VALLEY SPLIT OF 10 DEGREES WILL BE IN PLACE. FROST ALSO LOOKS TO BE
ANOTHER THREAT THURSDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE JUST TO OUR EAST AND A MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE PASSING OVER AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BRINGING FAIR WEATHER
ON THURSDAY. A LARGE BUT FAST MOVING LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT PLAINS WILL BE MOVING EAST ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
AND COLD FRONT...WITH THE FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MODELS ARE ALREADY SHOWING SOME
DISCREPANCY AT THIS POINT...AND A BLEND WAS USED...WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH PRECIP POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO FRIDAY.

DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. ONE THING AT ODDS IS WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR WHICH MAKES IT IN DURING THE
WEEKEND...AND THE SUBSEQUENT POSITION OF THE FRONT WHEN IT STALLS.
THIS LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE FOR TEMPERATURES...AND TO SOME EXTENT
FOR THE POP AS WELL...SINCE THE GREATEST POP SHOULD BE NEAR AND NORTH
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

A POTENT SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE ON THE WEST COAST ON FRIDAY WILL ROLL
EAST...WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO FORM A CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE CONUS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
ALSO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THIS. THE ENTIRE SYSTEM THEN SLOWLY MOVES
EAST. MODELS DO AGREE ON THIS OVERALL SCENARIO...BUT SHOW SO MUCH RANGE
IN THE DETAILS THAT ONLY A GENERALIZED FORECAST CAN BE GIVEN AT THIS
POINT. HAVE USED AN INCREASE IN POPS AS TIME GOES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
DUE TO THE APPROACH OF THE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE ON TAP THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. ASIDE FROM THAT...IT SHOULD BE SMOOTH
SAILING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...AR







000
FXUS63 KJKL 230530
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
130 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

FORECAST STILL PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. LATEST OBS SHOW WINDS OF 5 TO 10
KTS STILL BLOWING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. WITH CLEAR SKIES
OVERHEAD...THE RIDGES SHOULD STAY QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN THE
ADJACENT VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. SOME OF OUR DEEPER VALLEYS COULD STILL
DROP INTO THE MID 30S BY EARLY THIS MORNING...KEEPING THE POSSIBILITY
OF PATCHY FROST IN PLAY. AT THIS TIME...THE FORMATION OF FROST DOES
NOT LOOK QUITE AS PROMISING AS IT DID EARLIER TONIGHT...BUT WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 30S IN SOME OF OUR VALLEYS...THE POSSIBILITY IS
STILL THERE. ALL THAT BEING SAID...THE FORECAST OVERALL IS IN GOOD
SHAPE...SO NO UPDATE IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1114 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURES AGAIN DUE TO THE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS. STILL
EXPECTING THEM TO EVENTUALLY DROP OFF AND DECOUPLE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 820 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL
TRENDS. THE SHOWERS HAVE ALL MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AND WILL BE
EXPECTING A QUIET NIGHT. THE WINDS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOW TO DIE
DOWN TONIGHT AND SO THE TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO BEEN SLOW TO DROP
BECAUSE OF THE MIXING. EXPECTING THE WINDS TO DIE DOWN AND THE TEMPS
TO START DROPPING FASTER OVER THE NEXT TWO HOURS. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

CURRENT CONDITIONS AS OF 19Z FEATURE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS HANGING
AROUND THE AREA AS THE FRONT STILL LIES JUST TO THE WEST AS IT BEGINS
TO CROSS THE I-75 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY BRING AN END TO
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. OBS UPSTREAM HAVE DEWS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 30S MOVING INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS. THIS
AIR MASS WILL BE MOVING IN OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR TONIGHT AND WITH
CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE BLUEGRASS AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS.
THEREFORE...WILL GO WITH AN SPS MENTIONING THE FROST POTENTIAL
TONIGHT. THIS WILL MOSTLY BE THE VALLEYS AS SOME OF THE RIDGE TONIGHT
WILL KEEP SOME STRONGER WINDS...AND WILL SHOW A BIT OF A RIDGE
VALLEY SPLIT TONIGHT BUT ONLY AROUND A 5 DEGREE DIFFERENCE.

HEADING INTO TOMORROW...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY DID NOT PROVIDE
MUCH OF A SOAKING...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SCATTERED NATURE TODAY AND
SO THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TONIGHT WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH ABOVE
70 PERCENT IN MOST PLACES. AS WELL...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A DRY
POCKET OF AIR ALOFT TOMORROW TO MIX DOWN AND WHILE WE WILL LIKELY NOT
MIX INTO THE STRONGER WINDS ABOVE...RH WILL STILL BE DOWN INTO THE
CRITICAL VALUES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND SO WILL MENTION FIRE WEATHER
IN THE SPS AS WELL. WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT...WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND
KEEP SKY COVER MOSTLY CLEAR. THE COOLER AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT AS LOW TEMPS WILL GET DOWN INTO THE LOW
40S ON THE RIDGES AND INTO THE LOW 30S IN SOME OF THE DEEPER VALLEYS.
THE RIDGE SHIFTING THROUGH THE AREA WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER MOSTLY
CLEAR AND ANOTHER NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ENSUE AS A RIDGE
VALLEY SPLIT OF 10 DEGREES WILL BE IN PLACE. FROST ALSO LOOKS TO BE
ANOTHER THREAT THURSDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE JUST TO OUR EAST AND A MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE PASSING OVER AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BRINGING FAIR WEATHER
ON THURSDAY. A LARGE BUT FAST MOVING LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT PLAINS WILL BE MOVING EAST ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
AND COLD FRONT...WITH THE FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MODELS ARE ALREADY SHOWING SOME
DISCREPANCY AT THIS POINT...AND A BLEND WAS USED...WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH PRECIP POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO FRIDAY.

DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. ONE THING AT ODDS IS WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR WHICH MAKES IT IN DURING THE
WEEKEND...AND THE SUBSEQUENT POSITION OF THE FRONT WHEN IT STALLS.
THIS LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE FOR TEMPERATURES...AND TO SOME EXTENT
FOR THE POP AS WELL...SINCE THE GREATEST POP SHOULD BE NEAR AND NORTH
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

A POTENT SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE ON THE WEST COAST ON FRIDAY WILL ROLL
EAST...WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO FORM A CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE CONUS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
ALSO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THIS. THE ENTIRE SYSTEM THEN SLOWLY MOVES
EAST. MODELS DO AGREE ON THIS OVERALL SCENARIO...BUT SHOW SO MUCH RANGE
IN THE DETAILS THAT ONLY A GENERALIZED FORECAST CAN BE GIVEN AT THIS
POINT. HAVE USED AN INCREASE IN POPS AS TIME GOES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
DUE TO THE APPROACH OF THE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE ON TAP THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. ASIDE FROM THAT...IT SHOULD BE SMOOTH
SAILING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...AR








000
FXUS63 KJKL 230314
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1113 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1114 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURES AGAIN DUE TO THE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS. STILL
EXPECTING THEM TO EVENTUALLY DROP OFF AND DECOUPLE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 820 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL
TRENDS. THE SHOWERS HAVE ALL MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AND WILL BE
EXPECTING A QUIET NIGHT. THE WINDS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOW TO DIE
DOWN TONIGHT AND SO THE TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO BEEN SLOW TO DROP
BECAUSE OF THE MIXING. EXPECTING THE WINDS TO DIE DOWN AND THE TEMPS
TO START DROPPING FASTER OVER THE NEXT TWO HOURS. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

CURRENT CONDITIONS AS OF 19Z FEATURE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS HANGING
AROUND THE AREA AS THE FRONT STILL LIES JUST TO THE WEST AS IT BEGINS
TO CROSS THE I-75 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY BRING AN END TO
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. OBS UPSTREAM HAVE DEWS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 30S MOVING INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS. THIS
AIR MASS WILL BE MOVING IN OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR TONIGHT AND WITH
CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE BLUEGRASS AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS.
THEREFORE...WILL GO WITH AN SPS MENTIONING THE FROST POTENTIAL
TONIGHT. THIS WILL MOSTLY BE THE VALLEYS AS SOME OF THE RIDGE TONIGHT
WILL KEEP SOME STRONGER WINDS...AND WILL SHOW A BIT OF A RIDGE
VALLEY SPLIT TONIGHT BUT ONLY AROUND A 5 DEGREE DIFFERENCE.

HEADING INTO TOMORROW...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY DID NOT PROVIDE
MUCH OF A SOAKING...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SCATTERED NATURE TODAY AND
SO THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TONIGHT WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH ABOVE
70 PERCENT IN MOST PLACES. AS WELL...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A DRY
POCKET OF AIR ALOFT TOMORROW TO MIX DOWN AND WHILE WE WILL LIKELY NOT
MIX INTO THE STRONGER WINDS ABOVE...RH WILL STILL BE DOWN INTO THE
CRITICAL VALUES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND SO WILL MENTION FIRE WEATHER
IN THE SPS AS WELL. WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT...WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND
KEEP SKY COVER MOSTLY CLEAR. THE COOLER AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT AS LOW TEMPS WILL GET DOWN INTO THE LOW
40S ON THE RIDGES AND INTO THE LOW 30S IN SOME OF THE DEEPER VALLEYS.
THE RIDGE SHIFTING THROUGH THE AREA WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER MOSTLY
CLEAR AND ANOTHER NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ENSUE AS A RIDGE
VALLEY SPLIT OF 10 DEGREES WILL BE IN PLACE. FROST ALSO LOOKS TO BE
ANOTHER THREAT THURSDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE JUST TO OUR EAST AND A MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE PASSING OVER AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BRINGING FAIR WEATHER
ON THURSDAY. A LARGE BUT FAST MOVING LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT PLAINS WILL BE MOVING EAST ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
AND COLD FRONT...WITH THE FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MODELS ARE ALREADY SHOWING SOME
DISCREPANCY AT THIS POINT...AND A BLEND WAS USED...WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH PRECIP POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO FRIDAY.

DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. ONE THING AT ODDS IS WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR WHICH MAKES IT IN DURING THE
WEEKEND...AND THE SUBSEQUENT POSITION OF THE FRONT WHEN IT STALLS.
THIS LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE FOR TEMPERATURES...AND TO SOME EXTENT
FOR THE POP AS WELL...SINCE THE GREATEST POP SHOULD BE NEAR AND NORTH
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

A POTENT SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE ON THE WEST COAST ON FRIDAY WILL ROLL
EAST...WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO FORM A CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE CONUS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
ALSO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THIS. THE ENTIRE SYSTEM THEN SLOWLY MOVES
EAST. MODELS DO AGREE ON THIS OVERALL SCENARIO...BUT SHOW SO MUCH RANGE
IN THE DETAILS THAT ONLY A GENERALIZED FORECAST CAN BE GIVEN AT THIS
POINT. HAVE USED AN INCREASE IN POPS AS TIME GOES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
DUE TO THE APPROACH OF THE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 820 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

SKIES HAVE CLEARING OUT AS THE FRONT MOVES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA. EXPECT VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJ
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JJ







000
FXUS63 KJKL 230314
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1113 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1114 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURES AGAIN DUE TO THE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS. STILL
EXPECTING THEM TO EVENTUALLY DROP OFF AND DECOUPLE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 820 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL
TRENDS. THE SHOWERS HAVE ALL MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AND WILL BE
EXPECTING A QUIET NIGHT. THE WINDS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOW TO DIE
DOWN TONIGHT AND SO THE TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO BEEN SLOW TO DROP
BECAUSE OF THE MIXING. EXPECTING THE WINDS TO DIE DOWN AND THE TEMPS
TO START DROPPING FASTER OVER THE NEXT TWO HOURS. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

CURRENT CONDITIONS AS OF 19Z FEATURE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS HANGING
AROUND THE AREA AS THE FRONT STILL LIES JUST TO THE WEST AS IT BEGINS
TO CROSS THE I-75 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY BRING AN END TO
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. OBS UPSTREAM HAVE DEWS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 30S MOVING INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS. THIS
AIR MASS WILL BE MOVING IN OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR TONIGHT AND WITH
CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE BLUEGRASS AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS.
THEREFORE...WILL GO WITH AN SPS MENTIONING THE FROST POTENTIAL
TONIGHT. THIS WILL MOSTLY BE THE VALLEYS AS SOME OF THE RIDGE TONIGHT
WILL KEEP SOME STRONGER WINDS...AND WILL SHOW A BIT OF A RIDGE
VALLEY SPLIT TONIGHT BUT ONLY AROUND A 5 DEGREE DIFFERENCE.

HEADING INTO TOMORROW...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY DID NOT PROVIDE
MUCH OF A SOAKING...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SCATTERED NATURE TODAY AND
SO THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TONIGHT WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH ABOVE
70 PERCENT IN MOST PLACES. AS WELL...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A DRY
POCKET OF AIR ALOFT TOMORROW TO MIX DOWN AND WHILE WE WILL LIKELY NOT
MIX INTO THE STRONGER WINDS ABOVE...RH WILL STILL BE DOWN INTO THE
CRITICAL VALUES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND SO WILL MENTION FIRE WEATHER
IN THE SPS AS WELL. WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT...WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND
KEEP SKY COVER MOSTLY CLEAR. THE COOLER AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT AS LOW TEMPS WILL GET DOWN INTO THE LOW
40S ON THE RIDGES AND INTO THE LOW 30S IN SOME OF THE DEEPER VALLEYS.
THE RIDGE SHIFTING THROUGH THE AREA WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER MOSTLY
CLEAR AND ANOTHER NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ENSUE AS A RIDGE
VALLEY SPLIT OF 10 DEGREES WILL BE IN PLACE. FROST ALSO LOOKS TO BE
ANOTHER THREAT THURSDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE JUST TO OUR EAST AND A MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE PASSING OVER AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BRINGING FAIR WEATHER
ON THURSDAY. A LARGE BUT FAST MOVING LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT PLAINS WILL BE MOVING EAST ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
AND COLD FRONT...WITH THE FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MODELS ARE ALREADY SHOWING SOME
DISCREPANCY AT THIS POINT...AND A BLEND WAS USED...WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH PRECIP POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO FRIDAY.

DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. ONE THING AT ODDS IS WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR WHICH MAKES IT IN DURING THE
WEEKEND...AND THE SUBSEQUENT POSITION OF THE FRONT WHEN IT STALLS.
THIS LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE FOR TEMPERATURES...AND TO SOME EXTENT
FOR THE POP AS WELL...SINCE THE GREATEST POP SHOULD BE NEAR AND NORTH
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

A POTENT SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE ON THE WEST COAST ON FRIDAY WILL ROLL
EAST...WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO FORM A CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE CONUS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
ALSO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THIS. THE ENTIRE SYSTEM THEN SLOWLY MOVES
EAST. MODELS DO AGREE ON THIS OVERALL SCENARIO...BUT SHOW SO MUCH RANGE
IN THE DETAILS THAT ONLY A GENERALIZED FORECAST CAN BE GIVEN AT THIS
POINT. HAVE USED AN INCREASE IN POPS AS TIME GOES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
DUE TO THE APPROACH OF THE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 820 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

SKIES HAVE CLEARING OUT AS THE FRONT MOVES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA. EXPECT VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJ
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JJ








000
FXUS63 KJKL 230020
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
820 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 820 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL
TRENDS. THE SHOWERS HAVE ALL MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AND WILL BE
EXPECTING A QUIET NIGHT. THE WINDS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOW TO DIE
DOWN TONIGHT AND SO THE TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO BEEN SLOW TO DROP
BECAUSE OF THE MIXING. EXPECTING THE WINDS TO DIE DOWN AND THE TEMPS
TO START DROPPING FASTER OVER THE NEXT TWO HOURS. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

CURRENT CONDITIONS AS OF 19Z FEATURE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS HANGING
AROUND THE AREA AS THE FRONT STILL LIES JUST TO THE WEST AS IT BEGINS
TO CROSS THE I-75 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY BRING AN END TO
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. OBS UPSTREAM HAVE DEWS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 30S MOVING INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS. THIS
AIR MASS WILL BE MOVING IN OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR TONIGHT AND WITH
CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE BLUEGRASS AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS.
THEREFORE...WILL GO WITH AN SPS MENTIONING THE FROST POTENTIAL
TONIGHT. THIS WILL MOSTLY BE THE VALLEYS AS SOME OF THE RIDGE TONIGHT
WILL KEEP SOME STRONGER WINDS...AND WILL SHOW A BIT OF A RIDGE
VALLEY SPLIT TONIGHT BUT ONLY AROUND A 5 DEGREE DIFFERENCE.

HEADING INTO TOMORROW...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY DID NOT PROVIDE
MUCH OF A SOAKING...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SCATTERED NATURE TODAY AND
SO THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TONIGHT WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH ABOVE
70 PERCENT IN MOST PLACES. AS WELL...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A DRY
POCKET OF AIR ALOFT TOMORROW TO MIX DOWN AND WHILE WE WILL LIKELY NOT
MIX INTO THE STRONGER WINDS ABOVE...RH WILL STILL BE DOWN INTO THE
CRITICAL VALUES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND SO WILL MENTION FIRE WEATHER
IN THE SPS AS WELL. WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT...WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND
KEEP SKY COVER MOSTLY CLEAR. THE COOLER AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT AS LOW TEMPS WILL GET DOWN INTO THE LOW
40S ON THE RIDGES AND INTO THE LOW 30S IN SOME OF THE DEEPER VALLEYS.
THE RIDGE SHIFTING THROUGH THE AREA WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER MOSTLY
CLEAR AND ANOTHER NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ENSUE AS A RIDGE
VALLEY SPLIT OF 10 DEGREES WILL BE IN PLACE. FROST ALSO LOOKS TO BE
ANOTHER THREAT THURSDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE JUST TO OUR EAST AND A MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE PASSING OVER AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BRINGING FAIR WEATHER
ON THURSDAY. A LARGE BUT FAST MOVING LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT PLAINS WILL BE MOVING EAST ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
AND COLD FRONT...WITH THE FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MODELS ARE ALREADY SHOWING SOME
DISCREPANCY AT THIS POINT...AND A BLEND WAS USED...WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH PRECIP POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO FRIDAY.

DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. ONE THING AT ODDS IS WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR WHICH MAKES IT IN DURING THE
WEEKEND...AND THE SUBSEQUENT POSITION OF THE FRONT WHEN IT STALLS.
THIS LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE FOR TEMPERATURES...AND TO SOME EXTENT
FOR THE POP AS WELL...SINCE THE GREATEST POP SHOULD BE NEAR AND NORTH
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

A POTENT SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE ON THE WEST COAST ON FRIDAY WILL ROLL
EAST...WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO FORM A CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE CONUS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
ALSO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THIS. THE ENTIRE SYSTEM THEN SLOWLY MOVES
EAST. MODELS DO AGREE ON THIS OVERALL SCENARIO...BUT SHOW SO MUCH RANGE
IN THE DETAILS THAT ONLY A GENERALIZED FORECAST CAN BE GIVEN AT THIS
POINT. HAVE USED AN INCREASE IN POPS AS TIME GOES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
DUE TO THE APPROACH OF THE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 820 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

SKIES HAVE CLEARING OUT AS THE FRONT MOVES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA. EXPECT VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJ
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JJ







000
FXUS63 KJKL 230020
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
820 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 820 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL
TRENDS. THE SHOWERS HAVE ALL MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AND WILL BE
EXPECTING A QUIET NIGHT. THE WINDS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOW TO DIE
DOWN TONIGHT AND SO THE TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO BEEN SLOW TO DROP
BECAUSE OF THE MIXING. EXPECTING THE WINDS TO DIE DOWN AND THE TEMPS
TO START DROPPING FASTER OVER THE NEXT TWO HOURS. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

CURRENT CONDITIONS AS OF 19Z FEATURE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS HANGING
AROUND THE AREA AS THE FRONT STILL LIES JUST TO THE WEST AS IT BEGINS
TO CROSS THE I-75 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY BRING AN END TO
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. OBS UPSTREAM HAVE DEWS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 30S MOVING INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS. THIS
AIR MASS WILL BE MOVING IN OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR TONIGHT AND WITH
CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE BLUEGRASS AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS.
THEREFORE...WILL GO WITH AN SPS MENTIONING THE FROST POTENTIAL
TONIGHT. THIS WILL MOSTLY BE THE VALLEYS AS SOME OF THE RIDGE TONIGHT
WILL KEEP SOME STRONGER WINDS...AND WILL SHOW A BIT OF A RIDGE
VALLEY SPLIT TONIGHT BUT ONLY AROUND A 5 DEGREE DIFFERENCE.

HEADING INTO TOMORROW...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY DID NOT PROVIDE
MUCH OF A SOAKING...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SCATTERED NATURE TODAY AND
SO THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TONIGHT WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH ABOVE
70 PERCENT IN MOST PLACES. AS WELL...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A DRY
POCKET OF AIR ALOFT TOMORROW TO MIX DOWN AND WHILE WE WILL LIKELY NOT
MIX INTO THE STRONGER WINDS ABOVE...RH WILL STILL BE DOWN INTO THE
CRITICAL VALUES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND SO WILL MENTION FIRE WEATHER
IN THE SPS AS WELL. WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT...WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND
KEEP SKY COVER MOSTLY CLEAR. THE COOLER AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT AS LOW TEMPS WILL GET DOWN INTO THE LOW
40S ON THE RIDGES AND INTO THE LOW 30S IN SOME OF THE DEEPER VALLEYS.
THE RIDGE SHIFTING THROUGH THE AREA WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER MOSTLY
CLEAR AND ANOTHER NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ENSUE AS A RIDGE
VALLEY SPLIT OF 10 DEGREES WILL BE IN PLACE. FROST ALSO LOOKS TO BE
ANOTHER THREAT THURSDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE JUST TO OUR EAST AND A MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE PASSING OVER AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BRINGING FAIR WEATHER
ON THURSDAY. A LARGE BUT FAST MOVING LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT PLAINS WILL BE MOVING EAST ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
AND COLD FRONT...WITH THE FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MODELS ARE ALREADY SHOWING SOME
DISCREPANCY AT THIS POINT...AND A BLEND WAS USED...WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH PRECIP POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO FRIDAY.

DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. ONE THING AT ODDS IS WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR WHICH MAKES IT IN DURING THE
WEEKEND...AND THE SUBSEQUENT POSITION OF THE FRONT WHEN IT STALLS.
THIS LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE FOR TEMPERATURES...AND TO SOME EXTENT
FOR THE POP AS WELL...SINCE THE GREATEST POP SHOULD BE NEAR AND NORTH
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

A POTENT SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE ON THE WEST COAST ON FRIDAY WILL ROLL
EAST...WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO FORM A CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE CONUS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
ALSO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THIS. THE ENTIRE SYSTEM THEN SLOWLY MOVES
EAST. MODELS DO AGREE ON THIS OVERALL SCENARIO...BUT SHOW SO MUCH RANGE
IN THE DETAILS THAT ONLY A GENERALIZED FORECAST CAN BE GIVEN AT THIS
POINT. HAVE USED AN INCREASE IN POPS AS TIME GOES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
DUE TO THE APPROACH OF THE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 820 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

SKIES HAVE CLEARING OUT AS THE FRONT MOVES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA. EXPECT VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJ
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JJ








000
FXUS63 KJKL 222037
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
437 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

CURRENT CONDITIONS AS OF 19Z FEATURE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS HANGING
AROUND THE AREA AS THE FRONT STILL LIES JUST TO THE WEST AS IT BEGINS
TO CROSS THE I-75 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY BRING AN END TO
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. OBS UPSTREAM HAVE DEWS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 30S MOVING INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS. THIS
AIR MASS WILL BE MOVING IN OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR TONIGHT AND WITH
CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE BLUEGRASS AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS.
THEREFORE...WILL GO WITH AN SPS MENTIONING THE FROST POTENTIAL
TONIGHT. THIS WILL MOSTLY BE THE VALLEYS AS SOME OF THE RIDGE TONIGHT
WILL KEEP SOME STRONGER WINDS...AND WILL SHOW A BIT OF A RIDGE
VALLEY SPLIT TONIGHT BUT ONLY AROUND A 5 DEGREE DIFFERENCE.

HEADING INTO TOMORROW...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY DID NOT PROVIDE
MUCH OF A SOAKING...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SCATTERED NATURE TODAY AND
SO THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TONIGHT WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH ABOVE
70 PERCENT IN MOST PLACES. AS WELL...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A DRY
POCKET OF AIR ALOFT TOMORROW TO MIX DOWN AND WHILE WE WILL LIKELY NOT
MIX INTO THE STRONGER WINDS ABOVE...RH WILL STILL BE DOWN INTO THE
CRITICAL VALUES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND SO WILL MENTION FIRE WEATHER
IN THE SPS AS WELL. WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT...WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND
KEEP SKY COVER MOSTLY CLEAR. THE COOLER AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT AS LOW TEMPS WILL GET DOWN INTO THE LOW
40S ON THE RIDGES AND INTO THE LOW 30S IN SOME OF THE DEEPER VALLEYS.
THE RIDGE SHIFTING THROUGH THE AREA WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER MOSTLY
CLEAR AND ANOTHER NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ENSUE AS A RIDGE
VALLEY SPLIT OF 10 DEGREES WILL BE IN PLACE. FROST ALSO LOOKS TO BE
ANOTHER THREAT THURSDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE JUST TO OUR EAST AND A MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE PASSING OVER AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BRINGING FAIR WEATHER
ON THURSDAY. A LARGE BUT FAST MOVING LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT PLAINS WILL BE MOVING EAST ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
AND COLD FRONT...WITH THE FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MODELS ARE ALREADY SHOWING SOME
DISCREPANCY AT THIS POINT...AND A BLEND WAS USED...WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH PRECIP POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO FRIDAY.

DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. ONE THING AT ODDS IS WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR WHICH MAKES IT IN DURING THE
WEEKEND...AND THE SUBSEQUENT POSITION OF THE FRONT WHEN IT STALLS.
THIS LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE FOR TEMPERATURES...AND TO SOME EXTENT
FOR THE POP AS WELL...SINCE THE GREATEST POP SHOULD BE NEAR AND NORTH
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

A POTENT SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE ON THE WEST COAST ON FRIDAY WILL ROLL
EAST...WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO FORM A CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE CONUS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
ALSO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THIS. THE ENTIRE SYSTEM THEN SLOWLY MOVES
EAST. MODELS DO AGREE ON THIS OVERALL SCENARIO...BUT SHOW SO MUCH RANGE
IN THE DETAILS THAT ONLY A GENERALIZED FORECAST CAN BE GIVEN AT THIS
POINT. HAVE USED AN INCREASE IN POPS AS TIME GOES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
DUE TO THE APPROACH OF THE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

SHOWERS AND IFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS
SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LEAVING VFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER







000
FXUS63 KJKL 221933
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
333 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

CURRENT CONDITIONS AS OF 19Z FEATURE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS HANGING
AROUND THE AREA AS THE FRONT STILL LIES JUST TO THE WEST AS IT BEGINS
TO CROSS THE I-75 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY BRING AN END TO
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. OBS UPSTREAM HAVE DEWS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 30S MOVING INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS. THIS
AIRMASS WILL BE MOVING IN OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR TONIGHT AND WITH
CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE BLUEGRASS AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS.
THEREFORE...WILL GO WITH AN SPS MENTIONING THE FROST POTENTIAL
TONIGHT. THIS WILL MOSTLY BE THE VALLEYS AS SOME OF THE RIDGE TONIGHT
WILL KEEP SOME STRONGER WINDS...AND WILL SHOW A BIT OF A RIDGE
VALLEY SPLIT TONIGHT BUT ONLY AROUND A 5 DEGREE DIFFERENCE.

HEADING INTO TOMORROW...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY DID NOT PROVIDE
MUCH OF A SOAKING...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SCATTERED NATURE TODAY AND
SO THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TONIGHT WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH ABOVE
70 PERCENT IN MOST PLACES. AS WELL...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A DRY
POCKET OF AIR ALOFT TOMORROW TO MIX DOWN AND WHILE WE WILL LIKELY NOT
MIX INTO THE STRONGER WINDS ABOVE...RH WILL STILL BE DOWN INTO THE
CRITICAL VALUES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND SO WILL MENTION FIRE WEATHER
IN THE SPS AS WELL. WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT...WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND
KEEP SKY COVER MOSTLY CLEAR. THE OF THE COOLER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT AS LOW TEMPS WILL GET DOWN INTO
THE LOW 40S ON THE RIDGES AND INTO THE LOW 30S IN SOME OF THE DEEPER
VALLEYS. THE RIDGE SHIFTING THROUGH THE AREA WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER
MOSTLY CLEAR AND ANOTHER NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLER WILL ENSUE AS
A RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT OF 10 DEGREES WILL BE IN PLACE. FROST ALSO LOOKS
TO BE ANOTHER THREAT THURSDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

SHOWERS AND IFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS
SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LEAVING VFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER








000
FXUS63 KJKL 221933
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
333 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

CURRENT CONDITIONS AS OF 19Z FEATURE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS HANGING
AROUND THE AREA AS THE FRONT STILL LIES JUST TO THE WEST AS IT BEGINS
TO CROSS THE I-75 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY BRING AN END TO
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. OBS UPSTREAM HAVE DEWS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 30S MOVING INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS. THIS
AIRMASS WILL BE MOVING IN OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR TONIGHT AND WITH
CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE BLUEGRASS AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS.
THEREFORE...WILL GO WITH AN SPS MENTIONING THE FROST POTENTIAL
TONIGHT. THIS WILL MOSTLY BE THE VALLEYS AS SOME OF THE RIDGE TONIGHT
WILL KEEP SOME STRONGER WINDS...AND WILL SHOW A BIT OF A RIDGE
VALLEY SPLIT TONIGHT BUT ONLY AROUND A 5 DEGREE DIFFERENCE.

HEADING INTO TOMORROW...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY DID NOT PROVIDE
MUCH OF A SOAKING...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SCATTERED NATURE TODAY AND
SO THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TONIGHT WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH ABOVE
70 PERCENT IN MOST PLACES. AS WELL...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A DRY
POCKET OF AIR ALOFT TOMORROW TO MIX DOWN AND WHILE WE WILL LIKELY NOT
MIX INTO THE STRONGER WINDS ABOVE...RH WILL STILL BE DOWN INTO THE
CRITICAL VALUES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND SO WILL MENTION FIRE WEATHER
IN THE SPS AS WELL. WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT...WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND
KEEP SKY COVER MOSTLY CLEAR. THE OF THE COOLER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT AS LOW TEMPS WILL GET DOWN INTO
THE LOW 40S ON THE RIDGES AND INTO THE LOW 30S IN SOME OF THE DEEPER
VALLEYS. THE RIDGE SHIFTING THROUGH THE AREA WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER
MOSTLY CLEAR AND ANOTHER NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLER WILL ENSUE AS
A RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT OF 10 DEGREES WILL BE IN PLACE. FROST ALSO LOOKS
TO BE ANOTHER THREAT THURSDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

SHOWERS AND IFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS
SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LEAVING VFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER







000
FXUS63 KJKL 221738
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
138 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

ISSUED AN UPDATE TO INPUT THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS. TEMPS HAVE WARMED
NICELY INTO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS MOST AREAS AND ADJUSTED THE HOURLY
TEMPS SLIGHTLY. AS WELL DEW POINTS ARE A BIT HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED
AS WELL. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS JUST ABOUT DONE AS THE FRONT IS JUST
OFF TO THE WEST AND IS ABOUT TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. THE GRIDS HAVE
BEEN SENT TO NDFD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1056 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

THE FIRST BOUT OF SHOWERS HAVE PASSED THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS
MORNING WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS. AT THIS
TIME THE COLD FRONT STILL LIES TO THE WEST AND WILL PUSH THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING...WHAT LITTLE TAKES PLACE DUE TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER...WILL ALLOW FOR SOME INSTABILITY AND HAVE KEPT SHOWERS
AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
ZONES FOR THE REST OF TODAY. THUNDER IS STILL A QUESTIONABLE
POSSIBILITY DUE TO THE LIMITED INSTABILITY. BECAUSE OF THIS HAVE
TAKEN PRECIP OUT OF THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES IN THE BLUEGRASS AND
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE DANIEL BOONE NATIONAL FOREST. HAVE ISSUED
A NEW ZFP AND SENT THE GRIDS TO NDFD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

STILL WAITING ON THE THUNDER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE MAIN LINE OF
RAIN IS CROSSING EAST KENTUCKY CURRENTLY...IN LINE WITH THE LATEST
HRRR. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THIS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS AND BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDER FOLLOWED BY LOWER POPS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ALSO FINE
TUNED THE T AND TD GRIDS THROUGH MID MORNING BASED ON THE CURRENT OBS
AND TRENDS. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING KENTUCKY FROM A
PARENT LOW CROSSING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE MOVING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF
THIS FRONT BENEATH HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS. SO FAR...ACTUAL
MEASUREMENT BY THE SHOWERS HAS BEEN HARD TO COME BY...BUT A FEW
PROMISING CLUSTERS ARE DEVELOPING NORTH OF INTERSTATE CORRIDOR ON
RADAR. DESPITE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THE PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AREA HAVE BEEN ABLE TO ESTABLISH A
SMALL RIDGE TO VALLEY DIFFERENCE AS THE EASTERN VALLEYS ARE SITTING
IN THE MID 50S WHILE LOW TO MID 60S ARE FOUND ON THE RIDGES. THIS
SHOULD EVEN OUT AS THE AIR SATURATES LATER THIS NIGHT WITH A GRADUAL
UPTICK IN SHOWER COVERAGE. DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP INTO THE LOWER 50S
FOR MOST OF THE AREA...THOUGH SOME 40S ARE FOUND ON THE RIDGES AND IN
THE FAR EAST. MEANWHILE...WINDS ARE LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AREA.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS THEY ALL DEPICT A
DEVELOPING TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST OHIO VALLEY LATER
TODAY PROMPTING HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. THE BEST ENERGY
WITH THIS TROUGH STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF KENTUCKY...WITH
SOME WEAKER AMOUNTS PASSING THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE NORTHEAST
TROUGH DOES EXIT THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO BUILD
BACK OVER KENTUCKY AMIDST RIDGING INBOUND FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
WITH THE AGREEMENT ALOFT...HAVE FAVORED A GENERAL MODEL BLEND FOR THE
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...FOR WEATHER DETAILS
HAVE LEANED MORE HEAVILY ON THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A DAMP AND COOLER DAY AS THE FRONT
GRADUALLY MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN OF NOTE WILL BE RIGHT WITH THE BOUNDARY/S PASSAGE LATER
THIS MORNING. THE THERMAL PROFILE STILL LOOKS UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR A THUNDERSTORM THROUGH NOON ACROSS THE AREA SO WILL KEEP
THAT IN THE FORECAST. EVEN SO...THE LACK OF ANY ORGANIZATION WILL KEEP
ANY STORMS THAT OCCUR TO A MORE GARDEN VARIETY LEVEL AND ALSO PREVENT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SOAKING RAINS FOR ALL BUT A FEW SPOTS. DRIER AND
COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT ENDING THE SHOWER THREAT AND EVENTUALLY CLEARING THE CLOUDS.
THE DECENT CAA BEHIND THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT WILL COMPOUND RADIATIONAL
COOLING IN THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS TO SEND TEMPERATURES THERE INTO
THE MIDDLE 30S. THIS...COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS...WILL LEAVE THEM
VULNERABLE TO PATCHY FROST BY DAWN. HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE WX GRIDS
AND WILL CONTINUE ITS MENTION IN THE HWO. FOR WEDNESDAY...AFTER A
CHILLY START...READINGS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S MOST PLACES...
THOUGH THE ARRIVAL OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY WILL DO LITTLE
TO HELP TEMPS RISE IN THE AFTERNOON.

STARTED OUT WITH THE BC/CONSSHORT GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPS...
DEWPOINTS...AND WIND GRIDS FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST
FOLLOWED BY THE BC/CONSALL THEREAFTER. THE DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED
LOWER FOR MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY FOR EXTRA DRY AIR
MIXDOWN. DID MAKE SOME FINE TUNE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CONSALL FOR LOWS
TONIGHT AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP SIMILAR TO THE
MOS GUIDANCE TODAY AND ALSO WITH ITS LOW SINGLE DIGIT VALUES TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

THE MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED THIS TIME
AROUND. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO
MOVE EASTWARD OFF THE PACIFIC OCEAN AND ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS DISPLAYED SOME SMALL
DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM AND ITS EXACT
TIMING...BUT OVERALL AGREEMENT WAS SOLID. THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS FAIRLY INTENSE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...ALONG WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL
DATA...IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT ITSELF WILL NOT BE ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE IN AND OFF ITSELF. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE WELL
DEFINED ENOUGH...AND HAVE ENOUGH GULF MOISTURE TO TAP INTO...TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WITH A VIGOROUS
UPPER TROUGH STEERING IT...THE SURFACE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA FAIRLY QUICKLY. THAT BEING SAID...ADJUSTED THE FORECAST GRIDS
TO REFLECT ABOUT A 20 HOUR PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THE LATEST
MODEL DATA SUGGESTS MODEST INSTABILITY AT BEST DURING FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SO THUNDER SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. TEMPERATURES IN OUR
DEEPEST VALLEYS COULD DROP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME FROST FORMATION
AROUND THE AREA. BASED ON HOW WARM IT HAS BEEN LATELY...AND HOW WARM
IT WILL BE LEADING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION
OF PATCHY VALLEY FROST IN THE GRIDS FOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

A SECOND WEATHER IS PROGGED TO AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THE ISSUE WITH THIS
SYSTEM LIES IN THE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE MODELS AS TO THE
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. AS IT STANDS...THE GFS
MODEL IS PRODUCING STRONG AND MORE SLOWLY EVOLVING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THAN THE ECMWF. BASED ON THE LATEST RUN OF THE
ECMWF...EASTERN KENTUCKY COULD EXPERIENCE ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD ON MONDAY. THE GFS...ON THE OTHER
HAND...HOLDS OFF ON INTRODUCING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SOLUTION FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WAS TO
GO WITH A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS...GFS AND ECWMF...TO TRY AND
ACCOUNT FOR THE AMOUNT OF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THEM. THAT BEING
SAID...THE FORECAST SOLUTION FOR LATE SATURDAY ONWARD IS OF LOW
CONFIDENCE...WITH A SLIGHT BIAS TOWARD THE NORMALLY MORE RELIABLE
ECMWF SOLUTION. THAT BEING SAID...WENT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND
FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE A MEANDERING
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRING
ALONG IT FROM TIME TO TIME. WITH INSTABILITY ONCE AGAIN
LIMITED...DECIDED TO GO WITH MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE
AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF
THURSDAY MORNINGS LOWS...SHOULD BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE WARMEST DAYS WILL LIKELY BE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...AS THE GULF OPENS UP AS WE BECOME FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF A PASSING CYCLONE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
WILL BE COMMON ON THESE DAYS. ONCE THE SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE REGION AND THE SURFACE FRONTS STALLS OUT
ACROSS THE AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT A COOLER DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. HIGHS FROM SUNDAY ONWARD
WILL AVERAGE MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND SHOULD HOVER AROUND NORMAL VALUES
EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

SHOWERS AND IFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS
SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LEAVING VFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER







000
FXUS63 KJKL 221738
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
138 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

ISSUED AN UPDATE TO INPUT THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS. TEMPS HAVE WARMED
NICELY INTO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS MOST AREAS AND ADJUSTED THE HOURLY
TEMPS SLIGHTLY. AS WELL DEW POINTS ARE A BIT HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED
AS WELL. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS JUST ABOUT DONE AS THE FRONT IS JUST
OFF TO THE WEST AND IS ABOUT TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. THE GRIDS HAVE
BEEN SENT TO NDFD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1056 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

THE FIRST BOUT OF SHOWERS HAVE PASSED THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS
MORNING WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS. AT THIS
TIME THE COLD FRONT STILL LIES TO THE WEST AND WILL PUSH THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING...WHAT LITTLE TAKES PLACE DUE TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER...WILL ALLOW FOR SOME INSTABILITY AND HAVE KEPT SHOWERS
AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
ZONES FOR THE REST OF TODAY. THUNDER IS STILL A QUESTIONABLE
POSSIBILITY DUE TO THE LIMITED INSTABILITY. BECAUSE OF THIS HAVE
TAKEN PRECIP OUT OF THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES IN THE BLUEGRASS AND
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE DANIEL BOONE NATIONAL FOREST. HAVE ISSUED
A NEW ZFP AND SENT THE GRIDS TO NDFD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

STILL WAITING ON THE THUNDER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE MAIN LINE OF
RAIN IS CROSSING EAST KENTUCKY CURRENTLY...IN LINE WITH THE LATEST
HRRR. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THIS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS AND BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDER FOLLOWED BY LOWER POPS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ALSO FINE
TUNED THE T AND TD GRIDS THROUGH MID MORNING BASED ON THE CURRENT OBS
AND TRENDS. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING KENTUCKY FROM A
PARENT LOW CROSSING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE MOVING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF
THIS FRONT BENEATH HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS. SO FAR...ACTUAL
MEASUREMENT BY THE SHOWERS HAS BEEN HARD TO COME BY...BUT A FEW
PROMISING CLUSTERS ARE DEVELOPING NORTH OF INTERSTATE CORRIDOR ON
RADAR. DESPITE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THE PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AREA HAVE BEEN ABLE TO ESTABLISH A
SMALL RIDGE TO VALLEY DIFFERENCE AS THE EASTERN VALLEYS ARE SITTING
IN THE MID 50S WHILE LOW TO MID 60S ARE FOUND ON THE RIDGES. THIS
SHOULD EVEN OUT AS THE AIR SATURATES LATER THIS NIGHT WITH A GRADUAL
UPTICK IN SHOWER COVERAGE. DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP INTO THE LOWER 50S
FOR MOST OF THE AREA...THOUGH SOME 40S ARE FOUND ON THE RIDGES AND IN
THE FAR EAST. MEANWHILE...WINDS ARE LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AREA.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS THEY ALL DEPICT A
DEVELOPING TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST OHIO VALLEY LATER
TODAY PROMPTING HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. THE BEST ENERGY
WITH THIS TROUGH STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF KENTUCKY...WITH
SOME WEAKER AMOUNTS PASSING THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE NORTHEAST
TROUGH DOES EXIT THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO BUILD
BACK OVER KENTUCKY AMIDST RIDGING INBOUND FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
WITH THE AGREEMENT ALOFT...HAVE FAVORED A GENERAL MODEL BLEND FOR THE
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...FOR WEATHER DETAILS
HAVE LEANED MORE HEAVILY ON THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A DAMP AND COOLER DAY AS THE FRONT
GRADUALLY MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN OF NOTE WILL BE RIGHT WITH THE BOUNDARY/S PASSAGE LATER
THIS MORNING. THE THERMAL PROFILE STILL LOOKS UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR A THUNDERSTORM THROUGH NOON ACROSS THE AREA SO WILL KEEP
THAT IN THE FORECAST. EVEN SO...THE LACK OF ANY ORGANIZATION WILL KEEP
ANY STORMS THAT OCCUR TO A MORE GARDEN VARIETY LEVEL AND ALSO PREVENT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SOAKING RAINS FOR ALL BUT A FEW SPOTS. DRIER AND
COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT ENDING THE SHOWER THREAT AND EVENTUALLY CLEARING THE CLOUDS.
THE DECENT CAA BEHIND THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT WILL COMPOUND RADIATIONAL
COOLING IN THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS TO SEND TEMPERATURES THERE INTO
THE MIDDLE 30S. THIS...COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS...WILL LEAVE THEM
VULNERABLE TO PATCHY FROST BY DAWN. HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE WX GRIDS
AND WILL CONTINUE ITS MENTION IN THE HWO. FOR WEDNESDAY...AFTER A
CHILLY START...READINGS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S MOST PLACES...
THOUGH THE ARRIVAL OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY WILL DO LITTLE
TO HELP TEMPS RISE IN THE AFTERNOON.

STARTED OUT WITH THE BC/CONSSHORT GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPS...
DEWPOINTS...AND WIND GRIDS FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST
FOLLOWED BY THE BC/CONSALL THEREAFTER. THE DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED
LOWER FOR MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY FOR EXTRA DRY AIR
MIXDOWN. DID MAKE SOME FINE TUNE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CONSALL FOR LOWS
TONIGHT AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP SIMILAR TO THE
MOS GUIDANCE TODAY AND ALSO WITH ITS LOW SINGLE DIGIT VALUES TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

THE MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED THIS TIME
AROUND. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO
MOVE EASTWARD OFF THE PACIFIC OCEAN AND ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS DISPLAYED SOME SMALL
DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM AND ITS EXACT
TIMING...BUT OVERALL AGREEMENT WAS SOLID. THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS FAIRLY INTENSE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...ALONG WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL
DATA...IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT ITSELF WILL NOT BE ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE IN AND OFF ITSELF. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE WELL
DEFINED ENOUGH...AND HAVE ENOUGH GULF MOISTURE TO TAP INTO...TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WITH A VIGOROUS
UPPER TROUGH STEERING IT...THE SURFACE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA FAIRLY QUICKLY. THAT BEING SAID...ADJUSTED THE FORECAST GRIDS
TO REFLECT ABOUT A 20 HOUR PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THE LATEST
MODEL DATA SUGGESTS MODEST INSTABILITY AT BEST DURING FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SO THUNDER SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. TEMPERATURES IN OUR
DEEPEST VALLEYS COULD DROP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME FROST FORMATION
AROUND THE AREA. BASED ON HOW WARM IT HAS BEEN LATELY...AND HOW WARM
IT WILL BE LEADING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION
OF PATCHY VALLEY FROST IN THE GRIDS FOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

A SECOND WEATHER IS PROGGED TO AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THE ISSUE WITH THIS
SYSTEM LIES IN THE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE MODELS AS TO THE
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. AS IT STANDS...THE GFS
MODEL IS PRODUCING STRONG AND MORE SLOWLY EVOLVING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THAN THE ECMWF. BASED ON THE LATEST RUN OF THE
ECMWF...EASTERN KENTUCKY COULD EXPERIENCE ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD ON MONDAY. THE GFS...ON THE OTHER
HAND...HOLDS OFF ON INTRODUCING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SOLUTION FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WAS TO
GO WITH A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS...GFS AND ECWMF...TO TRY AND
ACCOUNT FOR THE AMOUNT OF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THEM. THAT BEING
SAID...THE FORECAST SOLUTION FOR LATE SATURDAY ONWARD IS OF LOW
CONFIDENCE...WITH A SLIGHT BIAS TOWARD THE NORMALLY MORE RELIABLE
ECMWF SOLUTION. THAT BEING SAID...WENT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND
FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE A MEANDERING
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRING
ALONG IT FROM TIME TO TIME. WITH INSTABILITY ONCE AGAIN
LIMITED...DECIDED TO GO WITH MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE
AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF
THURSDAY MORNINGS LOWS...SHOULD BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE WARMEST DAYS WILL LIKELY BE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...AS THE GULF OPENS UP AS WE BECOME FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF A PASSING CYCLONE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
WILL BE COMMON ON THESE DAYS. ONCE THE SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE REGION AND THE SURFACE FRONTS STALLS OUT
ACROSS THE AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT A COOLER DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. HIGHS FROM SUNDAY ONWARD
WILL AVERAGE MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND SHOULD HOVER AROUND NORMAL VALUES
EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

SHOWERS AND IFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS
SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LEAVING VFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER








000
FXUS63 KJKL 221455
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1055 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1056 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

THE FIRST BOUT OF SHOWERS HAVE PASSED THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS
MORNING WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS. AT THIS
TIME THE COLD FRONT STILL LIES TO THE WEST AND WILL PUSH THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING...WHAT LITTLE TAKES PLACE DUE TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER...WILL ALLOW FOR SOME INSTABILITY AND HAVE KEPT SHOWERS
AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
ZONES FOR THE REST OF TODAY. THUNDER IS STILL A QUESTIONABLE
POSSIBILITY DUE TO THE LIMITED INSTABILITY. BECAUSE OF THIS HAVE
TAKEN PRECIP OUT OF THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES IN THE BLUEGRASS AND
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE DANIEL BOONE NATIONAL FOREST. HAVE ISSUED
A NEW ZFP AND SENT THE GRIDS TO NDFD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

STILL WAITING ON THE THUNDER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE MAIN LINE OF
RAIN IS CROSSING EAST KENTUCKY CURRENTLY...IN LINE WITH THE LATEST
HRRR. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THIS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS AND BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDER FOLLOWED BY LOWER POPS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ALSO FINE
TUNED THE T AND TD GRIDS THROUGH MID MORNING BASED ON THE CURRENT OBS
AND TRENDS. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING KENTUCKY FROM A
PARENT LOW CROSSING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE MOVING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF
THIS FRONT BENEATH HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS. SO FAR...ACTUAL
MEASUREMENT BY THE SHOWERS HAS BEEN HARD TO COME BY...BUT A FEW
PROMISING CLUSTERS ARE DEVELOPING NORTH OF INTERSTATE CORRIDOR ON
RADAR. DESPITE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THE PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AREA HAVE BEEN ABLE TO ESTABLISH A
SMALL RIDGE TO VALLEY DIFFERENCE AS THE EASTERN VALLEYS ARE SITTING
IN THE MID 50S WHILE LOW TO MID 60S ARE FOUND ON THE RIDGES. THIS
SHOULD EVEN OUT AS THE AIR SATURATES LATER THIS NIGHT WITH A GRADUAL
UPTICK IN SHOWER COVERAGE. DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP INTO THE LOWER 50S
FOR MOST OF THE AREA...THOUGH SOME 40S ARE FOUND ON THE RIDGES AND IN
THE FAR EAST. MEANWHILE...WINDS ARE LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AREA.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS THEY ALL DEPICT A
DEVELOPING TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST OHIO VALLEY LATER
TODAY PROMPTING HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. THE BEST ENERGY
WITH THIS TROUGH STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF KENTUCKY...WITH
SOME WEAKER AMOUNTS PASSING THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE NORTHEAST
TROUGH DOES EXIT THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO BUILD
BACK OVER KENTUCKY AMIDST RIDGING INBOUND FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
WITH THE AGREEMENT ALOFT...HAVE FAVORED A GENERAL MODEL BLEND FOR THE
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...FOR WEATHER DETAILS
HAVE LEANED MORE HEAVILY ON THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A DAMP AND COOLER DAY AS THE FRONT
GRADUALLY MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN OF NOTE WILL BE RIGHT WITH THE BOUNDARY/S PASSAGE LATER
THIS MORNING. THE THERMAL PROFILE STILL LOOKS UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR A THUNDERSTORM THROUGH NOON ACROSS THE AREA SO WILL KEEP
THAT IN THE FORECAST. EVEN SO...THE LACK OF ANY ORGANIZATION WILL KEEP
ANY STORMS THAT OCCUR TO A MORE GARDEN VARIETY LEVEL AND ALSO PREVENT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SOAKING RAINS FOR ALL BUT A FEW SPOTS. DRIER AND
COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT ENDING THE SHOWER THREAT AND EVENTUALLY CLEARING THE CLOUDS.
THE DECENT CAA BEHIND THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT WILL COMPOUND RADIATIONAL
COOLING IN THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS TO SEND TEMPERATURES THERE INTO
THE MIDDLE 30S. THIS...COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS...WILL LEAVE THEM
VULNERABLE TO PATCHY FROST BY DAWN. HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE WX GRIDS
AND WILL CONTINUE ITS MENTION IN THE HWO. FOR WEDNESDAY...AFTER A
CHILLY START...READINGS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S MOST PLACES...
THOUGH THE ARRIVAL OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY WILL DO LITTLE
TO HELP TEMPS RISE IN THE AFTERNOON.

STARTED OUT WITH THE BC/CONSSHORT GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPS...
DEWPOINTS...AND WIND GRIDS FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST
FOLLOWED BY THE BC/CONSALL THEREAFTER. THE DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED
LOWER FOR MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY FOR EXTRA DRY AIR
MIXDOWN. DID MAKE SOME FINE TUNE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CONSALL FOR LOWS
TONIGHT AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP SIMILAR TO THE
MOS GUIDANCE TODAY AND ALSO WITH ITS LOW SINGLE DIGIT VALUES TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

THE MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED THIS TIME
AROUND. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO
MOVE EASTWARD OFF THE PACIFIC OCEAN AND ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS DISPLAYED SOME SMALL
DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM AND ITS EXACT
TIMING...BUT OVERALL AGREEMENT WAS SOLID. THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS FAIRLY INTENSE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...ALONG WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL
DATA...IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT ITSELF WILL NOT BE ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE IN AND OFF ITSELF. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE WELL
DEFINED ENOUGH...AND HAVE ENOUGH GULF MOISTURE TO TAP INTO...TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WITH A VIGOROUS
UPPER TROUGH STEERING IT...THE SURFACE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA FAIRLY QUICKLY. THAT BEING SAID...ADJUSTED THE FORECAST GRIDS
TO REFLECT ABOUT A 20 HOUR PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THE LATEST
MODEL DATA SUGGESTS MODEST INSTABILITY AT BEST DURING FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SO THUNDER SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. TEMPERATURES IN OUR
DEEPEST VALLEYS COULD DROP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME FROST FORMATION
AROUND THE AREA. BASED ON HOW WARM IT HAS BEEN LATELY...AND HOW WARM
IT WILL BE LEADING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION
OF PATCHY VALLEY FROST IN THE GRIDS FOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

A SECOND WEATHER IS PROGGED TO AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THE ISSUE WITH THIS
SYSTEM LIES IN THE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE MODELS AS TO THE
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. AS IT STANDS...THE GFS
MODEL IS PRODUCING STRONG AND MORE SLOWLY EVOLVING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THAN THE ECMWF. BASED ON THE LATEST RUN OF THE
ECMWF...EASTERN KENTUCKY COULD EXPERIENCE ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD ON MONDAY. THE GFS...ON THE OTHER
HAND...HOLDS OFF ON INTRODUCING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SOLUTION FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WAS TO
GO WITH A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS...GFS AND ECWMF...TO TRY AND
ACCOUNT FOR THE AMOUNT OF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THEM. THAT BEING
SAID...THE FORECAST SOLUTION FOR LATE SATURDAY ONWARD IS OF LOW
CONFIDENCE...WITH A SLIGHT BIAS TOWARD THE NORMALLY MORE RELIABLE
ECMWF SOLUTION. THAT BEING SAID...WENT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND
FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE A MEANDERING
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRING
ALONG IT FROM TIME TO TIME. WITH INSTABILITY ONCE AGAIN
LIMITED...DECIDED TO GO WITH MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE
AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF
THURSDAY MORNINGS LOWS...SHOULD BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE WARMEST DAYS WILL LIKELY BE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...AS THE GULF OPENS UP AS WE BECOME FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF A PASSING CYCLONE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
WILL BE COMMON ON THESE DAYS. ONCE THE SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE REGION AND THE SURFACE FRONTS STALLS OUT
ACROSS THE AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT A COOLER DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. HIGHS FROM SUNDAY ONWARD
WILL AVERAGE MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND SHOULD HOVER AROUND NORMAL VALUES
EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL SPLIT TIME WITH SOME MVFR CIGS AND VIS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH. HAVE YANKED
THE THUNDER CHANCES AS THE SHOWERS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH SIGNS OF
BEING TOO ROBUST...SO FAR. TO COVER LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE AFTERNOON AND WHEN THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT GOES
THROUGH HAVE INCLUDED A VCSH MENTION IN THE TAFS. DRY AIR WILL THEN
FILTER IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS COMING TO AN
END AND CIGS RISING TO VFR AGAIN BEFORE DISSIPATING. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP AT 10 TO 15 KTS FROM THE WEST THIS
MORNING...BECOMING MORE NORTH WITH TIME.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF







000
FXUS63 KJKL 221455
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1055 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1056 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

THE FIRST BOUT OF SHOWERS HAVE PASSED THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS
MORNING WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS. AT THIS
TIME THE COLD FRONT STILL LIES TO THE WEST AND WILL PUSH THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING...WHAT LITTLE TAKES PLACE DUE TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER...WILL ALLOW FOR SOME INSTABILITY AND HAVE KEPT SHOWERS
AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
ZONES FOR THE REST OF TODAY. THUNDER IS STILL A QUESTIONABLE
POSSIBILITY DUE TO THE LIMITED INSTABILITY. BECAUSE OF THIS HAVE
TAKEN PRECIP OUT OF THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES IN THE BLUEGRASS AND
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE DANIEL BOONE NATIONAL FOREST. HAVE ISSUED
A NEW ZFP AND SENT THE GRIDS TO NDFD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

STILL WAITING ON THE THUNDER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE MAIN LINE OF
RAIN IS CROSSING EAST KENTUCKY CURRENTLY...IN LINE WITH THE LATEST
HRRR. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THIS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS AND BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDER FOLLOWED BY LOWER POPS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ALSO FINE
TUNED THE T AND TD GRIDS THROUGH MID MORNING BASED ON THE CURRENT OBS
AND TRENDS. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING KENTUCKY FROM A
PARENT LOW CROSSING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE MOVING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF
THIS FRONT BENEATH HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS. SO FAR...ACTUAL
MEASUREMENT BY THE SHOWERS HAS BEEN HARD TO COME BY...BUT A FEW
PROMISING CLUSTERS ARE DEVELOPING NORTH OF INTERSTATE CORRIDOR ON
RADAR. DESPITE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THE PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AREA HAVE BEEN ABLE TO ESTABLISH A
SMALL RIDGE TO VALLEY DIFFERENCE AS THE EASTERN VALLEYS ARE SITTING
IN THE MID 50S WHILE LOW TO MID 60S ARE FOUND ON THE RIDGES. THIS
SHOULD EVEN OUT AS THE AIR SATURATES LATER THIS NIGHT WITH A GRADUAL
UPTICK IN SHOWER COVERAGE. DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP INTO THE LOWER 50S
FOR MOST OF THE AREA...THOUGH SOME 40S ARE FOUND ON THE RIDGES AND IN
THE FAR EAST. MEANWHILE...WINDS ARE LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AREA.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS THEY ALL DEPICT A
DEVELOPING TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST OHIO VALLEY LATER
TODAY PROMPTING HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. THE BEST ENERGY
WITH THIS TROUGH STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF KENTUCKY...WITH
SOME WEAKER AMOUNTS PASSING THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE NORTHEAST
TROUGH DOES EXIT THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO BUILD
BACK OVER KENTUCKY AMIDST RIDGING INBOUND FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
WITH THE AGREEMENT ALOFT...HAVE FAVORED A GENERAL MODEL BLEND FOR THE
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...FOR WEATHER DETAILS
HAVE LEANED MORE HEAVILY ON THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A DAMP AND COOLER DAY AS THE FRONT
GRADUALLY MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN OF NOTE WILL BE RIGHT WITH THE BOUNDARY/S PASSAGE LATER
THIS MORNING. THE THERMAL PROFILE STILL LOOKS UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR A THUNDERSTORM THROUGH NOON ACROSS THE AREA SO WILL KEEP
THAT IN THE FORECAST. EVEN SO...THE LACK OF ANY ORGANIZATION WILL KEEP
ANY STORMS THAT OCCUR TO A MORE GARDEN VARIETY LEVEL AND ALSO PREVENT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SOAKING RAINS FOR ALL BUT A FEW SPOTS. DRIER AND
COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT ENDING THE SHOWER THREAT AND EVENTUALLY CLEARING THE CLOUDS.
THE DECENT CAA BEHIND THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT WILL COMPOUND RADIATIONAL
COOLING IN THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS TO SEND TEMPERATURES THERE INTO
THE MIDDLE 30S. THIS...COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS...WILL LEAVE THEM
VULNERABLE TO PATCHY FROST BY DAWN. HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE WX GRIDS
AND WILL CONTINUE ITS MENTION IN THE HWO. FOR WEDNESDAY...AFTER A
CHILLY START...READINGS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S MOST PLACES...
THOUGH THE ARRIVAL OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY WILL DO LITTLE
TO HELP TEMPS RISE IN THE AFTERNOON.

STARTED OUT WITH THE BC/CONSSHORT GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPS...
DEWPOINTS...AND WIND GRIDS FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST
FOLLOWED BY THE BC/CONSALL THEREAFTER. THE DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED
LOWER FOR MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY FOR EXTRA DRY AIR
MIXDOWN. DID MAKE SOME FINE TUNE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CONSALL FOR LOWS
TONIGHT AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP SIMILAR TO THE
MOS GUIDANCE TODAY AND ALSO WITH ITS LOW SINGLE DIGIT VALUES TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

THE MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED THIS TIME
AROUND. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO
MOVE EASTWARD OFF THE PACIFIC OCEAN AND ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS DISPLAYED SOME SMALL
DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM AND ITS EXACT
TIMING...BUT OVERALL AGREEMENT WAS SOLID. THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS FAIRLY INTENSE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...ALONG WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL
DATA...IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT ITSELF WILL NOT BE ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE IN AND OFF ITSELF. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE WELL
DEFINED ENOUGH...AND HAVE ENOUGH GULF MOISTURE TO TAP INTO...TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WITH A VIGOROUS
UPPER TROUGH STEERING IT...THE SURFACE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA FAIRLY QUICKLY. THAT BEING SAID...ADJUSTED THE FORECAST GRIDS
TO REFLECT ABOUT A 20 HOUR PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THE LATEST
MODEL DATA SUGGESTS MODEST INSTABILITY AT BEST DURING FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SO THUNDER SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. TEMPERATURES IN OUR
DEEPEST VALLEYS COULD DROP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME FROST FORMATION
AROUND THE AREA. BASED ON HOW WARM IT HAS BEEN LATELY...AND HOW WARM
IT WILL BE LEADING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION
OF PATCHY VALLEY FROST IN THE GRIDS FOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

A SECOND WEATHER IS PROGGED TO AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THE ISSUE WITH THIS
SYSTEM LIES IN THE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE MODELS AS TO THE
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. AS IT STANDS...THE GFS
MODEL IS PRODUCING STRONG AND MORE SLOWLY EVOLVING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THAN THE ECMWF. BASED ON THE LATEST RUN OF THE
ECMWF...EASTERN KENTUCKY COULD EXPERIENCE ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD ON MONDAY. THE GFS...ON THE OTHER
HAND...HOLDS OFF ON INTRODUCING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SOLUTION FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WAS TO
GO WITH A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS...GFS AND ECWMF...TO TRY AND
ACCOUNT FOR THE AMOUNT OF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THEM. THAT BEING
SAID...THE FORECAST SOLUTION FOR LATE SATURDAY ONWARD IS OF LOW
CONFIDENCE...WITH A SLIGHT BIAS TOWARD THE NORMALLY MORE RELIABLE
ECMWF SOLUTION. THAT BEING SAID...WENT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND
FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE A MEANDERING
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRING
ALONG IT FROM TIME TO TIME. WITH INSTABILITY ONCE AGAIN
LIMITED...DECIDED TO GO WITH MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE
AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF
THURSDAY MORNINGS LOWS...SHOULD BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE WARMEST DAYS WILL LIKELY BE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...AS THE GULF OPENS UP AS WE BECOME FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF A PASSING CYCLONE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
WILL BE COMMON ON THESE DAYS. ONCE THE SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE REGION AND THE SURFACE FRONTS STALLS OUT
ACROSS THE AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT A COOLER DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. HIGHS FROM SUNDAY ONWARD
WILL AVERAGE MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND SHOULD HOVER AROUND NORMAL VALUES
EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL SPLIT TIME WITH SOME MVFR CIGS AND VIS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH. HAVE YANKED
THE THUNDER CHANCES AS THE SHOWERS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH SIGNS OF
BEING TOO ROBUST...SO FAR. TO COVER LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE AFTERNOON AND WHEN THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT GOES
THROUGH HAVE INCLUDED A VCSH MENTION IN THE TAFS. DRY AIR WILL THEN
FILTER IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS COMING TO AN
END AND CIGS RISING TO VFR AGAIN BEFORE DISSIPATING. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP AT 10 TO 15 KTS FROM THE WEST THIS
MORNING...BECOMING MORE NORTH WITH TIME.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF








000
FXUS63 KJKL 221145 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
745 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

STILL WAITING ON THE THUNDER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE MAIN LINE OF
RAIN IS CROSSING EAST KENTUCKY CURRENTLY...IN LINE WITH THE LATEST
HRRR. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THIS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS AND BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDER FOLLOWED BY LOWER POPS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ALSO FINE
TUNED THE T AND TD GRIDS THROUGH MID MORNING BASED ON THE CURRENT OBS
AND TRENDS. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING KENTUCKY FROM A
PARENT LOW CROSSING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE MOVING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF
THIS FRONT BENEATH HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS. SO FAR...ACTUAL
MEASUREMENT BY THE SHOWERS HAS BEEN HARD TO COME BY...BUT A FEW
PROMISING CLUSTERS ARE DEVELOPING NORTH OF INTERSTATE CORRIDOR ON
RADAR. DESPITE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THE PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AREA HAVE BEEN ABLE TO ESTABLISH A
SMALL RIDGE TO VALLEY DIFFERENCE AS THE EASTERN VALLEYS ARE SITTING
IN THE MID 50S WHILE LOW TO MID 60S ARE FOUND ON THE RIDGES. THIS
SHOULD EVEN OUT AS THE AIR SATURATES LATER THIS NIGHT WITH A GRADUAL
UPTICK IN SHOWER COVERAGE. DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP INTO THE LOWER 50S
FOR MOST OF THE AREA...THOUGH SOME 40S ARE FOUND ON THE RIDGES AND IN
THE FAR EAST. MEANWHILE...WINDS ARE LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AREA.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS THEY ALL DEPICT A
DEVELOPING TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST OHIO VALLEY LATER
TODAY PROMPTING HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. THE BEST ENERGY
WITH THIS TROUGH STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF KENTUCKY...WITH
SOME WEAKER AMOUNTS PASSING THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE NORTHEAST
TROUGH DOES EXIT THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO BUILD
BACK OVER KENTUCKY AMIDST RIDGING INBOUND FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
WITH THE AGREEMENT ALOFT...HAVE FAVORED A GENERAL MODEL BLEND FOR THE
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...FOR WEATHER DETAILS
HAVE LEANED MORE HEAVILY ON THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A DAMP AND COOLER DAY AS THE FRONT
GRADUALLY MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN OF NOTE WILL BE RIGHT WITH THE BOUNDARY/S PASSAGE LATER
THIS MORNING. THE THERMAL PROFILE STILL LOOKS UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR A THUNDERSTORM THROUGH NOON ACROSS THE AREA SO WILL KEEP
THAT IN THE FORECAST. EVEN SO...THE LACK OF ANY ORGANIZATION WILL KEEP
ANY STORMS THAT OCCUR TO A MORE GARDEN VARIETY LEVEL AND ALSO PREVENT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SOAKING RAINS FOR ALL BUT A FEW SPOTS. DRIER AND
COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT ENDING THE SHOWER THREAT AND EVENTUALLY CLEARING THE CLOUDS.
THE DECENT CAA BEHIND THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT WILL COMPOUND RADIATIONAL
COOLING IN THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS TO SEND TEMPERATURES THERE INTO
THE MIDDLE 30S. THIS...COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS...WILL LEAVE THEM
VULNERABLE TO PATCHY FROST BY DAWN. HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE WX GRIDS
AND WILL CONTINUE ITS MENTION IN THE HWO. FOR WEDNESDAY...AFTER A
CHILLY START...READINGS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S MOST PLACES...
THOUGH THE ARRIVAL OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY WILL DO LITTLE
TO HELP TEMPS RISE IN THE AFTERNOON.

STARTED OUT WITH THE BC/CONSSHORT GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPS...
DEWPOINTS...AND WIND GRIDS FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST
FOLLOWED BY THE BC/CONSALL THEREAFTER. THE DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED
LOWER FOR MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY FOR EXTRA DRY AIR
MIXDOWN. DID MAKE SOME FINE TUNE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CONSALL FOR LOWS
TONIGHT AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP SIMILAR TO THE
MOS GUIDANCE TODAY AND ALSO WITH ITS LOW SINGLE DIGIT VALUES TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

THE MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED THIS TIME
AROUND. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO
MOVE EASTWARD OFF THE PACIFIC OCEAN AND ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS DISPLAYED SOME SMALL
DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM AND ITS EXACT
TIMING...BUT OVERALL AGREEMENT WAS SOLID. THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS FAIRLY INTENSE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...ALONG WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL
DATA...IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT ITSELF WILL NOT BE ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE IN AND OFF ITSELF. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE WELL
DEFINED ENOUGH...AND HAVE ENOUGH GULF MOISTURE TO TAP INTO...TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WITH A VIGOROUS
UPPER TROUGH STEERING IT...THE SURFACE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA FAIRLY QUICKLY. THAT BEING SAID...ADJUSTED THE FORECAST GRIDS
TO REFLECT ABOUT A 20 HOUR PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THE LATEST
MODEL DATA SUGGESTS MODEST INSTABILITY AT BEST DURING FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SO THUNDER SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. TEMPERATURES IN OUR
DEEPEST VALLEYS COULD DROP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME FROST FORMATION
AROUND THE AREA. BASED ON HOW WARM IT HAS BEEN LATELY...AND HOW WARM
IT WILL BE LEADING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION
OF PATCHY VALLEY FROST IN THE GRIDS FOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

A SECOND WEATHER IS PROGGED TO AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THE ISSUE WITH THIS
SYSTEM LIES IN THE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE MODELS AS TO THE
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. AS IT STANDS...THE GFS
MODEL IS PRODUCING STRONG AND MORE SLOWLY EVOLVING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THAN THE ECMWF. BASED ON THE LATEST RUN OF THE
ECMWF...EASTERN KENTUCKY COULD EXPERIENCE ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD ON MONDAY. THE GFS...ON THE OTHER
HAND...HOLDS OFF ON INTRODUCING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SOLUTION FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WAS TO
GO WITH A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS...GFS AND ECWMF...TO TRY AND
ACCOUNT FOR THE AMOUNT OF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THEM. THAT BEING
SAID...THE FORECAST SOLUTION FOR LATE SATURDAY ONWARD IS OF LOW
CONFIDENCE...WITH A SLIGHT BIAS TOWARD THE NORMALLY MORE RELIABLE
ECMWF SOLUTION. THAT BEING SAID...WENT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND
FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE A MEANDERING
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRING
ALONG IT FROM TIME TO TIME. WITH INSTABILITY ONCE AGAIN
LIMITED...DECIDED TO GO WITH MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE
AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF
THURSDAY MORNINGS LOWS...SHOULD BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE WARMEST DAYS WILL LIKELY BE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...AS THE GULF OPENS UP AS WE BECOME FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF A PASSING CYCLONE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
WILL BE COMMON ON THESE DAYS. ONCE THE SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE REGION AND THE SURFACE FRONTS STALLS OUT
ACROSS THE AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT A COOLER DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. HIGHS FROM SUNDAY ONWARD
WILL AVERAGE MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND SHOULD HOVER AROUND NORMAL VALUES
EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL SPLIT TIME WITH SOME MVFR CIGS AND VIS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH. HAVE YANKED
THE THUNDER CHANCES AS THE SHOWERS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH SIGNS OF
BEING TOO ROBUST...SO FAR. TO COVER LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE AFTERNOON AND WHEN THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT GOES
THROUGH HAVE INCLUDED A VCSH MENTION IN THE TAFS. DRY AIR WILL THEN
FILTER IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS COMING TO AN
END AND CIGS RISING TO VFR AGAIN BEFORE DISSIPATING. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP AT 10 TO 15 KTS FROM THE WEST THIS
MORNING...BECOMING MORE NORTH WITH TIME.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF





000
FXUS63 KJKL 221145 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
745 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

STILL WAITING ON THE THUNDER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE MAIN LINE OF
RAIN IS CROSSING EAST KENTUCKY CURRENTLY...IN LINE WITH THE LATEST
HRRR. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THIS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS AND BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDER FOLLOWED BY LOWER POPS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ALSO FINE
TUNED THE T AND TD GRIDS THROUGH MID MORNING BASED ON THE CURRENT OBS
AND TRENDS. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING KENTUCKY FROM A
PARENT LOW CROSSING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE MOVING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF
THIS FRONT BENEATH HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS. SO FAR...ACTUAL
MEASUREMENT BY THE SHOWERS HAS BEEN HARD TO COME BY...BUT A FEW
PROMISING CLUSTERS ARE DEVELOPING NORTH OF INTERSTATE CORRIDOR ON
RADAR. DESPITE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THE PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AREA HAVE BEEN ABLE TO ESTABLISH A
SMALL RIDGE TO VALLEY DIFFERENCE AS THE EASTERN VALLEYS ARE SITTING
IN THE MID 50S WHILE LOW TO MID 60S ARE FOUND ON THE RIDGES. THIS
SHOULD EVEN OUT AS THE AIR SATURATES LATER THIS NIGHT WITH A GRADUAL
UPTICK IN SHOWER COVERAGE. DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP INTO THE LOWER 50S
FOR MOST OF THE AREA...THOUGH SOME 40S ARE FOUND ON THE RIDGES AND IN
THE FAR EAST. MEANWHILE...WINDS ARE LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AREA.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS THEY ALL DEPICT A
DEVELOPING TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST OHIO VALLEY LATER
TODAY PROMPTING HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. THE BEST ENERGY
WITH THIS TROUGH STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF KENTUCKY...WITH
SOME WEAKER AMOUNTS PASSING THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE NORTHEAST
TROUGH DOES EXIT THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO BUILD
BACK OVER KENTUCKY AMIDST RIDGING INBOUND FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
WITH THE AGREEMENT ALOFT...HAVE FAVORED A GENERAL MODEL BLEND FOR THE
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...FOR WEATHER DETAILS
HAVE LEANED MORE HEAVILY ON THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A DAMP AND COOLER DAY AS THE FRONT
GRADUALLY MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN OF NOTE WILL BE RIGHT WITH THE BOUNDARY/S PASSAGE LATER
THIS MORNING. THE THERMAL PROFILE STILL LOOKS UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR A THUNDERSTORM THROUGH NOON ACROSS THE AREA SO WILL KEEP
THAT IN THE FORECAST. EVEN SO...THE LACK OF ANY ORGANIZATION WILL KEEP
ANY STORMS THAT OCCUR TO A MORE GARDEN VARIETY LEVEL AND ALSO PREVENT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SOAKING RAINS FOR ALL BUT A FEW SPOTS. DRIER AND
COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT ENDING THE SHOWER THREAT AND EVENTUALLY CLEARING THE CLOUDS.
THE DECENT CAA BEHIND THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT WILL COMPOUND RADIATIONAL
COOLING IN THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS TO SEND TEMPERATURES THERE INTO
THE MIDDLE 30S. THIS...COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS...WILL LEAVE THEM
VULNERABLE TO PATCHY FROST BY DAWN. HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE WX GRIDS
AND WILL CONTINUE ITS MENTION IN THE HWO. FOR WEDNESDAY...AFTER A
CHILLY START...READINGS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S MOST PLACES...
THOUGH THE ARRIVAL OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY WILL DO LITTLE
TO HELP TEMPS RISE IN THE AFTERNOON.

STARTED OUT WITH THE BC/CONSSHORT GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPS...
DEWPOINTS...AND WIND GRIDS FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST
FOLLOWED BY THE BC/CONSALL THEREAFTER. THE DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED
LOWER FOR MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY FOR EXTRA DRY AIR
MIXDOWN. DID MAKE SOME FINE TUNE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CONSALL FOR LOWS
TONIGHT AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP SIMILAR TO THE
MOS GUIDANCE TODAY AND ALSO WITH ITS LOW SINGLE DIGIT VALUES TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

THE MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED THIS TIME
AROUND. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO
MOVE EASTWARD OFF THE PACIFIC OCEAN AND ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS DISPLAYED SOME SMALL
DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM AND ITS EXACT
TIMING...BUT OVERALL AGREEMENT WAS SOLID. THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS FAIRLY INTENSE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...ALONG WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL
DATA...IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT ITSELF WILL NOT BE ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE IN AND OFF ITSELF. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE WELL
DEFINED ENOUGH...AND HAVE ENOUGH GULF MOISTURE TO TAP INTO...TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WITH A VIGOROUS
UPPER TROUGH STEERING IT...THE SURFACE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA FAIRLY QUICKLY. THAT BEING SAID...ADJUSTED THE FORECAST GRIDS
TO REFLECT ABOUT A 20 HOUR PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THE LATEST
MODEL DATA SUGGESTS MODEST INSTABILITY AT BEST DURING FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SO THUNDER SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. TEMPERATURES IN OUR
DEEPEST VALLEYS COULD DROP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME FROST FORMATION
AROUND THE AREA. BASED ON HOW WARM IT HAS BEEN LATELY...AND HOW WARM
IT WILL BE LEADING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION
OF PATCHY VALLEY FROST IN THE GRIDS FOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

A SECOND WEATHER IS PROGGED TO AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THE ISSUE WITH THIS
SYSTEM LIES IN THE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE MODELS AS TO THE
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. AS IT STANDS...THE GFS
MODEL IS PRODUCING STRONG AND MORE SLOWLY EVOLVING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THAN THE ECMWF. BASED ON THE LATEST RUN OF THE
ECMWF...EASTERN KENTUCKY COULD EXPERIENCE ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD ON MONDAY. THE GFS...ON THE OTHER
HAND...HOLDS OFF ON INTRODUCING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SOLUTION FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WAS TO
GO WITH A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS...GFS AND ECWMF...TO TRY AND
ACCOUNT FOR THE AMOUNT OF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THEM. THAT BEING
SAID...THE FORECAST SOLUTION FOR LATE SATURDAY ONWARD IS OF LOW
CONFIDENCE...WITH A SLIGHT BIAS TOWARD THE NORMALLY MORE RELIABLE
ECMWF SOLUTION. THAT BEING SAID...WENT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND
FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE A MEANDERING
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRING
ALONG IT FROM TIME TO TIME. WITH INSTABILITY ONCE AGAIN
LIMITED...DECIDED TO GO WITH MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE
AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF
THURSDAY MORNINGS LOWS...SHOULD BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE WARMEST DAYS WILL LIKELY BE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...AS THE GULF OPENS UP AS WE BECOME FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF A PASSING CYCLONE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
WILL BE COMMON ON THESE DAYS. ONCE THE SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE REGION AND THE SURFACE FRONTS STALLS OUT
ACROSS THE AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT A COOLER DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. HIGHS FROM SUNDAY ONWARD
WILL AVERAGE MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND SHOULD HOVER AROUND NORMAL VALUES
EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL SPLIT TIME WITH SOME MVFR CIGS AND VIS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH. HAVE YANKED
THE THUNDER CHANCES AS THE SHOWERS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH SIGNS OF
BEING TOO ROBUST...SO FAR. TO COVER LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE AFTERNOON AND WHEN THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT GOES
THROUGH HAVE INCLUDED A VCSH MENTION IN THE TAFS. DRY AIR WILL THEN
FILTER IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS COMING TO AN
END AND CIGS RISING TO VFR AGAIN BEFORE DISSIPATING. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP AT 10 TO 15 KTS FROM THE WEST THIS
MORNING...BECOMING MORE NORTH WITH TIME.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF






000
FXUS63 KJKL 220740 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
340 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING KENTUCKY FROM A
PARENT LOW CROSSING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE MOVING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF
THIS FRONT BENEATH HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS. SO FAR...ACTUAL
MEASUREMENT BY THE SHOWERS HAS BEEN HARD TO COME BY...BUT A FEW
PROMISING CLUSTERS ARE DEVELOPING NORTH OF INTERSTATE CORRIDOR ON
RADAR. DESPITE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THE PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AREA HAVE BEEN ABLE TO ESTABLISH A
SMALL RIDGE TO VALLEY DIFFERENCE AS THE EASTERN VALLEYS ARE SITTING
IN THE MID 50S WHILE LOW TO MID 60S ARE FOUND ON THE RIDGES. THIS
SHOULD EVEN OUT AS THE AIR SATURATES LATER THIS NIGHT WITH A GRADUAL
UPTICK IN SHOWER COVERAGE. DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP INTO THE LOWER 50S
FOR MOST OF THE AREA...THOUGH SOME 40S ARE FOUND ON THE RIDGES AND IN
THE FAR EAST. MEANWHILE...WINDS ARE LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AREA.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS THEY ALL DEPICT A
DEVELOPING TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST OHIO VALLEY LATER
TODAY PROMPTING HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. THE BEST ENERGY
WITH THIS TROUGH STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF KENTUCKY...WITH
SOME WEAKER AMOUNTS PASSING THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE NORTHEAST
TROUGH DOES EXIT THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO BUILD
BACK OVER KENTUCKY AMIDST RIDGING INBOUND FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
WITH THE AGREEMENT ALOFT...HAVE FAVORED A GENERAL MODEL BLEND FOR THE
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...FOR WEATHER DETAILS
HAVE LEANED MORE HEAVILY ON THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A DAMP AND COOLER DAY AS THE FRONT
GRADUALLY MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN OF NOTE WILL BE RIGHT WITH THE BOUNDARY/S PASSAGE LATER
THIS MORNING. THE THERMAL PROFILE STILL LOOKS UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR A THUNDERSTORM THROUGH NOON ACROSS THE AREA SO WILL KEEP
THAT IN THE FORECAST. EVEN SO...THE LACK OF ANY ORGANIZATION WILL KEEP
ANY STORMS THAT OCCUR TO A MORE GARDEN VARIETY LEVEL AND ALSO PREVENT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SOAKING RAINS FOR ALL BUT A FEW SPOTS. DRIER AND
COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT ENDING THE SHOWER THREAT AND EVENTUALLY CLEARING THE CLOUDS.
THE DECENT CAA BEHIND THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT WILL COMPOUND RADIATIONAL
COOLING IN THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS TO SEND TEMPERATURES THERE INTO
THE MIDDLE 30S. THIS...COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS...WILL LEAVE THEM
VULNERABLE TO PATCHY FROST BY DAWN. HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE WX GRIDS
AND WILL CONTINUE ITS MENTION IN THE HWO. FOR WEDNESDAY...AFTER A
CHILLY START...READINGS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S MOST PLACES...
THOUGH THE ARRIVAL OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY WILL DO LITTLE
TO HELP TEMPS RISE IN THE AFTERNOON.

STARTED OUT WITH THE BC/CONSSHORT GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPS...
DEWPOINTS...AND WIND GRIDS FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST
FOLLOWED BY THE BC/CONSALL THEREAFTER. THE DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED
LOWER FOR MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY FOR EXTRA DRY AIR
MIXDOWN. DID MAKE SOME FINE TUNE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CONSALL FOR LOWS
TONIGHT AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP SIMILAR TO THE
MOS GUIDANCE TODAY AND ALSO WITH ITS LOW SINGLE DIGIT VALUES TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

THE MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED THIS TIME
AROUND. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO
MOVE EASTWARD OFF THE PACIFIC OCEAN AND ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS DISPLAYED SOME SMALL
DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM AND ITS EXACT
TIMING...BUT OVERALL AGREEMENT WAS SOLID. THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS FAIRLY INTENSE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...ALONG WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL
DATA...IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT ITSELF WILL NOT BE ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE IN AND OFF ITSELF. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE WELL
DEFINED ENOUGH...AND HAVE ENOUGH GULF MOISTURE TO TAP INTO...TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WITH A VIGOROUS
UPPER TROUGH STEERING IT...THE SURFACE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA FAIRLY QUICKLY. THAT BEING SAID...ADJUSTED THE FORECAST GRIDS
TO REFLECT ABOUT A 20 HOUR PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THE LATEST
MODEL DATA SUGGESTS MODEST INSTABILITY AT BEST DURING FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SO THUNDER SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. TEMPERATURES IN OUR
DEEPEST VALLEYS COULD DROP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME FROST FORMATION
AROUND THE AREA. BASED ON HOW WARM IT HAS BEEN LATELY...AND HOW WARM
IT WILL BE LEADING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION
OF PATCHY VALLEY FROST IN THE GRIDS FOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

A SECOND WEATHER IS PROGGED TO AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THE ISSUE WITH THIS
SYSTEM LIES IN THE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE MODELS AS TO THE
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. AS IT STANDS...THE GFS
MODEL IS PRODUCING STRONG AND MORE SLOWLY EVOLVING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THAN THE ECMWF. BASED ON THE LATEST RUN OF THE
ECMWF...EASTERN KENTUCKY COULD EXPERIENCE ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD ON MONDAY. THE GFS...ON THE OTHER
HAND...HOLDS OFF ON INTRODUCING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SOLUTION FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WAS TO
GO WITH A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS...GFS AND ECWMF...TO TRY AND
ACCOUNT FOR THE AMOUNT OF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THEM. THAT BEING
SAID...THE FORECAST SOLUTION FOR LATE SATURDAY ONWARD IS OF LOW
CONFIDENCE...WITH A SLIGHT BIAS TOWARD THE NORMALLY MORE RELIABLE
ECMWF SOLUTION. THAT BEING SAID...WENT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND
FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE A MEANDERING
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRING
ALONG IT FROM TIME TO TIME. WITH INSTABILITY ONCE AGAIN
LIMITED...DECIDED TO GO WITH MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE
AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF
THURSDAY MORNINGS LOWS...SHOULD BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE WARMEST DAYS WILL LIKELY BE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...AS THE GULF OPENS UP AS WE BECOME FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF A PASSING CYCLONE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
WILL BE COMMON ON THESE DAYS. ONCE THE SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE REGION AND THE SURFACE FRONTS STALLS OUT
ACROSS THE AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT A COOLER DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. HIGHS FROM SUNDAY ONWARD
WILL AVERAGE MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND SHOULD HOVER AROUND NORMAL VALUES
EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO SOME MVFR CIGS AND VIS
TOWARDS DAWN AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ON THROUGH THE AREA. REDUCED
VISIBILITY AND LOWER CEILINGS...DOWN TO IFR...WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY PASSES...ALONG WITH A
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM. DRY AIR WILL THEN FILTER IN LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS COMING TO AN END AND CIGS RISING TO VFR
AGAIN BEFORE DISSIPATING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST
UNTIL RIGHT WITH THE FRONT...AROUND DAWN...WHEN THEY WILL PICK UP AT
10 TO 15 KTS FROM THE WEST...BECOMING NORTHWEST WITH TIME.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF






000
FXUS63 KJKL 220740 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
340 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING KENTUCKY FROM A
PARENT LOW CROSSING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE MOVING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF
THIS FRONT BENEATH HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS. SO FAR...ACTUAL
MEASUREMENT BY THE SHOWERS HAS BEEN HARD TO COME BY...BUT A FEW
PROMISING CLUSTERS ARE DEVELOPING NORTH OF INTERSTATE CORRIDOR ON
RADAR. DESPITE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THE PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AREA HAVE BEEN ABLE TO ESTABLISH A
SMALL RIDGE TO VALLEY DIFFERENCE AS THE EASTERN VALLEYS ARE SITTING
IN THE MID 50S WHILE LOW TO MID 60S ARE FOUND ON THE RIDGES. THIS
SHOULD EVEN OUT AS THE AIR SATURATES LATER THIS NIGHT WITH A GRADUAL
UPTICK IN SHOWER COVERAGE. DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP INTO THE LOWER 50S
FOR MOST OF THE AREA...THOUGH SOME 40S ARE FOUND ON THE RIDGES AND IN
THE FAR EAST. MEANWHILE...WINDS ARE LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AREA.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS THEY ALL DEPICT A
DEVELOPING TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST OHIO VALLEY LATER
TODAY PROMPTING HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. THE BEST ENERGY
WITH THIS TROUGH STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF KENTUCKY...WITH
SOME WEAKER AMOUNTS PASSING THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE NORTHEAST
TROUGH DOES EXIT THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO BUILD
BACK OVER KENTUCKY AMIDST RIDGING INBOUND FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
WITH THE AGREEMENT ALOFT...HAVE FAVORED A GENERAL MODEL BLEND FOR THE
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...FOR WEATHER DETAILS
HAVE LEANED MORE HEAVILY ON THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A DAMP AND COOLER DAY AS THE FRONT
GRADUALLY MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN OF NOTE WILL BE RIGHT WITH THE BOUNDARY/S PASSAGE LATER
THIS MORNING. THE THERMAL PROFILE STILL LOOKS UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR A THUNDERSTORM THROUGH NOON ACROSS THE AREA SO WILL KEEP
THAT IN THE FORECAST. EVEN SO...THE LACK OF ANY ORGANIZATION WILL KEEP
ANY STORMS THAT OCCUR TO A MORE GARDEN VARIETY LEVEL AND ALSO PREVENT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SOAKING RAINS FOR ALL BUT A FEW SPOTS. DRIER AND
COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT ENDING THE SHOWER THREAT AND EVENTUALLY CLEARING THE CLOUDS.
THE DECENT CAA BEHIND THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT WILL COMPOUND RADIATIONAL
COOLING IN THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS TO SEND TEMPERATURES THERE INTO
THE MIDDLE 30S. THIS...COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS...WILL LEAVE THEM
VULNERABLE TO PATCHY FROST BY DAWN. HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE WX GRIDS
AND WILL CONTINUE ITS MENTION IN THE HWO. FOR WEDNESDAY...AFTER A
CHILLY START...READINGS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S MOST PLACES...
THOUGH THE ARRIVAL OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY WILL DO LITTLE
TO HELP TEMPS RISE IN THE AFTERNOON.

STARTED OUT WITH THE BC/CONSSHORT GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPS...
DEWPOINTS...AND WIND GRIDS FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST
FOLLOWED BY THE BC/CONSALL THEREAFTER. THE DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED
LOWER FOR MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY FOR EXTRA DRY AIR
MIXDOWN. DID MAKE SOME FINE TUNE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CONSALL FOR LOWS
TONIGHT AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP SIMILAR TO THE
MOS GUIDANCE TODAY AND ALSO WITH ITS LOW SINGLE DIGIT VALUES TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

THE MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED THIS TIME
AROUND. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO
MOVE EASTWARD OFF THE PACIFIC OCEAN AND ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS DISPLAYED SOME SMALL
DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM AND ITS EXACT
TIMING...BUT OVERALL AGREEMENT WAS SOLID. THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS FAIRLY INTENSE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...ALONG WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL
DATA...IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT ITSELF WILL NOT BE ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE IN AND OFF ITSELF. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE WELL
DEFINED ENOUGH...AND HAVE ENOUGH GULF MOISTURE TO TAP INTO...TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WITH A VIGOROUS
UPPER TROUGH STEERING IT...THE SURFACE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA FAIRLY QUICKLY. THAT BEING SAID...ADJUSTED THE FORECAST GRIDS
TO REFLECT ABOUT A 20 HOUR PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THE LATEST
MODEL DATA SUGGESTS MODEST INSTABILITY AT BEST DURING FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SO THUNDER SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. TEMPERATURES IN OUR
DEEPEST VALLEYS COULD DROP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME FROST FORMATION
AROUND THE AREA. BASED ON HOW WARM IT HAS BEEN LATELY...AND HOW WARM
IT WILL BE LEADING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION
OF PATCHY VALLEY FROST IN THE GRIDS FOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

A SECOND WEATHER IS PROGGED TO AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THE ISSUE WITH THIS
SYSTEM LIES IN THE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE MODELS AS TO THE
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. AS IT STANDS...THE GFS
MODEL IS PRODUCING STRONG AND MORE SLOWLY EVOLVING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THAN THE ECMWF. BASED ON THE LATEST RUN OF THE
ECMWF...EASTERN KENTUCKY COULD EXPERIENCE ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD ON MONDAY. THE GFS...ON THE OTHER
HAND...HOLDS OFF ON INTRODUCING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SOLUTION FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WAS TO
GO WITH A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS...GFS AND ECWMF...TO TRY AND
ACCOUNT FOR THE AMOUNT OF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THEM. THAT BEING
SAID...THE FORECAST SOLUTION FOR LATE SATURDAY ONWARD IS OF LOW
CONFIDENCE...WITH A SLIGHT BIAS TOWARD THE NORMALLY MORE RELIABLE
ECMWF SOLUTION. THAT BEING SAID...WENT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND
FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE A MEANDERING
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRING
ALONG IT FROM TIME TO TIME. WITH INSTABILITY ONCE AGAIN
LIMITED...DECIDED TO GO WITH MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE
AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF
THURSDAY MORNINGS LOWS...SHOULD BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE WARMEST DAYS WILL LIKELY BE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...AS THE GULF OPENS UP AS WE BECOME FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF A PASSING CYCLONE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
WILL BE COMMON ON THESE DAYS. ONCE THE SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE REGION AND THE SURFACE FRONTS STALLS OUT
ACROSS THE AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT A COOLER DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. HIGHS FROM SUNDAY ONWARD
WILL AVERAGE MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND SHOULD HOVER AROUND NORMAL VALUES
EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO SOME MVFR CIGS AND VIS
TOWARDS DAWN AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ON THROUGH THE AREA. REDUCED
VISIBILITY AND LOWER CEILINGS...DOWN TO IFR...WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY PASSES...ALONG WITH A
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM. DRY AIR WILL THEN FILTER IN LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS COMING TO AN END AND CIGS RISING TO VFR
AGAIN BEFORE DISSIPATING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST
UNTIL RIGHT WITH THE FRONT...AROUND DAWN...WHEN THEY WILL PICK UP AT
10 TO 15 KTS FROM THE WEST...BECOMING NORTHWEST WITH TIME.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF





000
FXUS63 KJKL 220600 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
200 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

POCKETS OF LIGHT SHOWERS ARE NOW MOVING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY BUT NOT
MUCH IS MEASURING. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE LOW END OF CHANCE UNTIL
CLOSER TOWARDS DAWN WHEN THE ACTUAL FRONT GETS NEAR...AND ALSO WE
WILL STILL SEE A CHANCE FOR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM. ALSO...FINE TUNED
THE T AND TD GRIDS INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH THIS UPDATE BASED ON THE
LATEST OBS...TRENDS...AND CONSSHORT GUIDANCE. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN
SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1034 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPECKLE WEST AND CENTRAL KY AS THEY
SLOWLY MOVE IN OUR DIRECTION. HOWEVER...AS OF NOW...THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION HAS BEEN TOO MUCH TO OVERCOME FOR ANY THUNDER TO DEVELOP.
MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS. FIRST...WITH THE LACK OF THUNDER ACROSS THE AREA WITH
THIS SYSTEM...AND BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS...DECIDED TO
TAKE OUT ANY MENTION OF ISOLATED TSRA UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS
POINT...ANY ONGOING SHOWERS COULD WORK TO COOL THE LLVLS...AND
ALLEVIATE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION...MAKING IT EASIER FOR STORMS TO
DEVELOP. THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE WEAK BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING WILL ALSO HELP TO
SPARK ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

ALSO...SINCE PRECIP IS ONGOING...DECIDED TO CHANGE THE WEATHER GRIDS
FROM PROBABILITY TO COVERAGE...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED TO
IMPACT EASTERN KY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERALL THE TIMING FOR
THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH TOMORROW STILL SEEMS TO BE WELL ON TRACK.
THOUGH WILL BE CURIOUS AS TO IF THIS SPOTTY SHOWER PATTERN WILL
ORGANIZE INTO A MORE WIDESPREAD EVENT...OR IF POPS WILL NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED DOWN LATER IN THE NIGHT. HOPEFULLY AS THE BOUNDARY NEARS AND
RH VALUES INCREASE...WE WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN THE PRECIP
ACTIVITY AS WELL. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THE BEST MOISTURE MOVING
INTO EASTERN KY BETWEEN 9 AND 12Z. REGARDLESS...BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS...AND FORECASTED QPF...ULTIMATELY DECIDED TO TAKE OUT ANY
MENTION OF MODERATE RAINFALL. THOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW HEAVIER
ISOLATED CELLS...OVERALL EXPECT THIS TO BE A SMALL AMOUNTING EVENT.
THIS MAY NEED TO BE LOOKED AT AGAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT PACKAGE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 736 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

FORECAST SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY WELL ON TRACK SO FAR. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE INCOMING FRONT AND RESULTING RAIN/TSRA CHANCES ACROSS THE
REGION AS IT GETS CLOSER...IN CASE ANY UPDATES NEED TO BE MADE AS A
RESULT. OTHERWISE...LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR
TEMPS...WINDS...AND DEW POINTS...TO MAKE SURE ONGOING FORECAST LINED
UP WITH ONGOING CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST AS MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE EAST. WARM TEMPS HAVE REALLY
DRIED OUT SOME OF THE VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST
WITH RH DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 20S AND UPPER TEENS. ALSO...WE HAVE
HAD A BIT MORE MIXING AS SOME ISOLATED RIDGE TOPS HAVE REACHED 15
MPH. GIVEN THE FACT THAT WE HAVE HAD OUR DEWS NOT RESPONDING WELL TO
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THE MOS SEEMINGLY AGREEING WITH THE LOWER
DEWS...HAVE LOWERED THEM THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND EVEN LOWERED THE
QPF EXPECTED FROM THE ONCOMING FRONT TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIP WILL ARRIVE BY 06Z TONIGHT IN THE WESTERN LOCATIONS. THOUGH
THE ACTIVITY WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT...SOME INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
FOR SOME THUNDER TONIGHT SO HAVE PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS
MAY GET MORE THAN A COUPLE TENTHS OF RAINFALL BUT THE OVERALL DRY
PATTERN WILL LIMIT THIS.

THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE QUITE COOLER FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH THE TEMPS OVER THE BLUEGRASS DROPPING INTO THE 30S. THE DRY
CONDITIONS WILL STILL A FACTOR AS WELL WITH THE DEWS DROPPING INTO
THE 30S AS WELL. THE OVERALL FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE BASED UPON
THE IMPACT OF THE SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSING FRONT AS THE SOAKING PROVIDED WILL FACTOR IN HOW LOW RH WILL
DROP INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. ALSO THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME
PATCHY FROST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS THROUGH THE
LOCATIONS WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

FORECAST MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT BEFORE THE START OF
THE WEEKEND. TRANSIENT RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY BEFORE A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND MOVE
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...THE
MAIN TROUGH/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
DAKOTAS AND THEN INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON THU NIGHT AND THEN INTO
EASTERN CANADA TO START THE WEEKEND. AT THE SFC...A SFC LOW SHOULD
TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FROM WED
NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. THIS LOW AND THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
SEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON THU NIGHT INTO EARLY ON FRIDAY.
MODELS THEN HANDLE THIS TROUGH MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN US AND THE EVENTUAL PATTERN LATE IN THE PERIOD BOTH
IN TIMING AND AMPLIFICATION. THEREFORE...FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS BELOW AVERAGE.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. WE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES EACH AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ON WED. THEN A STRUNG
OUT COLD FRONT IS THEN PROGGED TO PASS QUICKLY THROUGH OUR AREA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MODEL GENERATED QPF IS LEAN...AS
IS INSTABILITY...AND ONLY EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
60 PERCENT POPS AND ONLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AS THE
FRONT PASSES. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...FORECAST MODELS THEN PAINT
DIFFERENT SCENARIOS OVER THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY WHEN LOOKING AT
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS POINT...THE CR DATA GRID LOAD BLENDING
MODEL DATA AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CONTINUED TO BE REASONABLE
UNTIL THERE IS MORE MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE PATTERN. THIS BLEND
RESULTS IN A DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
RETURN TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO SOME MVFR CIGS AND VIS
TOWARDS DAWN AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ON THROUGH THE AREA. REDUCED
VISIBILITY AND LOWER CEILINGS...DOWN TO IFR...WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY PASSES...ALONG WITH A
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM. DRY AIR WILL THEN FILTER IN LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS COMING TO AN END AND CIGS RISING TO VFR
AGAIN BEFORE DISSIPATING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST
UNTIL RIGHT WITH THE FRONT...AROUND DAWN...WHEN THEY WILL PICK UP AT
10 TO 15 KTS FROM THE WEST...BECOMING NORTHWEST WITH TIME.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GREIF







000
FXUS63 KJKL 220600 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
200 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

POCKETS OF LIGHT SHOWERS ARE NOW MOVING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY BUT NOT
MUCH IS MEASURING. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE LOW END OF CHANCE UNTIL
CLOSER TOWARDS DAWN WHEN THE ACTUAL FRONT GETS NEAR...AND ALSO WE
WILL STILL SEE A CHANCE FOR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM. ALSO...FINE TUNED
THE T AND TD GRIDS INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH THIS UPDATE BASED ON THE
LATEST OBS...TRENDS...AND CONSSHORT GUIDANCE. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN
SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1034 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPECKLE WEST AND CENTRAL KY AS THEY
SLOWLY MOVE IN OUR DIRECTION. HOWEVER...AS OF NOW...THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION HAS BEEN TOO MUCH TO OVERCOME FOR ANY THUNDER TO DEVELOP.
MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS. FIRST...WITH THE LACK OF THUNDER ACROSS THE AREA WITH
THIS SYSTEM...AND BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS...DECIDED TO
TAKE OUT ANY MENTION OF ISOLATED TSRA UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS
POINT...ANY ONGOING SHOWERS COULD WORK TO COOL THE LLVLS...AND
ALLEVIATE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION...MAKING IT EASIER FOR STORMS TO
DEVELOP. THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE WEAK BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING WILL ALSO HELP TO
SPARK ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

ALSO...SINCE PRECIP IS ONGOING...DECIDED TO CHANGE THE WEATHER GRIDS
FROM PROBABILITY TO COVERAGE...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED TO
IMPACT EASTERN KY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERALL THE TIMING FOR
THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH TOMORROW STILL SEEMS TO BE WELL ON TRACK.
THOUGH WILL BE CURIOUS AS TO IF THIS SPOTTY SHOWER PATTERN WILL
ORGANIZE INTO A MORE WIDESPREAD EVENT...OR IF POPS WILL NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED DOWN LATER IN THE NIGHT. HOPEFULLY AS THE BOUNDARY NEARS AND
RH VALUES INCREASE...WE WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN THE PRECIP
ACTIVITY AS WELL. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THE BEST MOISTURE MOVING
INTO EASTERN KY BETWEEN 9 AND 12Z. REGARDLESS...BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS...AND FORECASTED QPF...ULTIMATELY DECIDED TO TAKE OUT ANY
MENTION OF MODERATE RAINFALL. THOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW HEAVIER
ISOLATED CELLS...OVERALL EXPECT THIS TO BE A SMALL AMOUNTING EVENT.
THIS MAY NEED TO BE LOOKED AT AGAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT PACKAGE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 736 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

FORECAST SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY WELL ON TRACK SO FAR. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE INCOMING FRONT AND RESULTING RAIN/TSRA CHANCES ACROSS THE
REGION AS IT GETS CLOSER...IN CASE ANY UPDATES NEED TO BE MADE AS A
RESULT. OTHERWISE...LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR
TEMPS...WINDS...AND DEW POINTS...TO MAKE SURE ONGOING FORECAST LINED
UP WITH ONGOING CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST AS MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE EAST. WARM TEMPS HAVE REALLY
DRIED OUT SOME OF THE VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST
WITH RH DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 20S AND UPPER TEENS. ALSO...WE HAVE
HAD A BIT MORE MIXING AS SOME ISOLATED RIDGE TOPS HAVE REACHED 15
MPH. GIVEN THE FACT THAT WE HAVE HAD OUR DEWS NOT RESPONDING WELL TO
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THE MOS SEEMINGLY AGREEING WITH THE LOWER
DEWS...HAVE LOWERED THEM THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND EVEN LOWERED THE
QPF EXPECTED FROM THE ONCOMING FRONT TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIP WILL ARRIVE BY 06Z TONIGHT IN THE WESTERN LOCATIONS. THOUGH
THE ACTIVITY WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT...SOME INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
FOR SOME THUNDER TONIGHT SO HAVE PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS
MAY GET MORE THAN A COUPLE TENTHS OF RAINFALL BUT THE OVERALL DRY
PATTERN WILL LIMIT THIS.

THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE QUITE COOLER FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH THE TEMPS OVER THE BLUEGRASS DROPPING INTO THE 30S. THE DRY
CONDITIONS WILL STILL A FACTOR AS WELL WITH THE DEWS DROPPING INTO
THE 30S AS WELL. THE OVERALL FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE BASED UPON
THE IMPACT OF THE SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSING FRONT AS THE SOAKING PROVIDED WILL FACTOR IN HOW LOW RH WILL
DROP INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. ALSO THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME
PATCHY FROST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS THROUGH THE
LOCATIONS WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

FORECAST MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT BEFORE THE START OF
THE WEEKEND. TRANSIENT RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY BEFORE A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND MOVE
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...THE
MAIN TROUGH/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
DAKOTAS AND THEN INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON THU NIGHT AND THEN INTO
EASTERN CANADA TO START THE WEEKEND. AT THE SFC...A SFC LOW SHOULD
TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FROM WED
NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. THIS LOW AND THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
SEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON THU NIGHT INTO EARLY ON FRIDAY.
MODELS THEN HANDLE THIS TROUGH MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN US AND THE EVENTUAL PATTERN LATE IN THE PERIOD BOTH
IN TIMING AND AMPLIFICATION. THEREFORE...FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS BELOW AVERAGE.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. WE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES EACH AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ON WED. THEN A STRUNG
OUT COLD FRONT IS THEN PROGGED TO PASS QUICKLY THROUGH OUR AREA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MODEL GENERATED QPF IS LEAN...AS
IS INSTABILITY...AND ONLY EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
60 PERCENT POPS AND ONLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AS THE
FRONT PASSES. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...FORECAST MODELS THEN PAINT
DIFFERENT SCENARIOS OVER THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY WHEN LOOKING AT
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS POINT...THE CR DATA GRID LOAD BLENDING
MODEL DATA AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CONTINUED TO BE REASONABLE
UNTIL THERE IS MORE MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE PATTERN. THIS BLEND
RESULTS IN A DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
RETURN TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO SOME MVFR CIGS AND VIS
TOWARDS DAWN AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ON THROUGH THE AREA. REDUCED
VISIBILITY AND LOWER CEILINGS...DOWN TO IFR...WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY PASSES...ALONG WITH A
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM. DRY AIR WILL THEN FILTER IN LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS COMING TO AN END AND CIGS RISING TO VFR
AGAIN BEFORE DISSIPATING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST
UNTIL RIGHT WITH THE FRONT...AROUND DAWN...WHEN THEY WILL PICK UP AT
10 TO 15 KTS FROM THE WEST...BECOMING NORTHWEST WITH TIME.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GREIF








000
FXUS63 KJKL 220234
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1034 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1034 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPECKLE WEST AND CENTRAL KY AS THEY
SLOWLY MOVE IN OUR DIRECTION. HOWEVER...AS OF NOW...THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION HAS BEEN TOO MUCH TO OVERCOME FOR ANY THUNDER TO DEVELOP.
MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS. FIRST...WITH THE LACK OF THUNDER ACROSS THE AREA WITH
THIS SYSTEM...AND BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS...DECIDED TO
TAKE OUT ANY MENTION OF ISOLATED TSRA UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS
POINT...ANY ONGOING SHOWERS COULD WORK TO COOL THE LLVLS...AND
ALLEVIATE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION...MAKING IT EASIER FOR STORMS TO
DEVELOP. THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE WEAK BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING WILL ALSO HELP TO
SPARK ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

ALSO...SINCE PRECIP IS ONGOING...DECIDED TO CHANGE THE WEATHER GRIDS
FROM PROBABILITY TO COVERAGE...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED TO
IMPACT EASTERN KY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERALL THE TIMING FOR
THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH TOMORROW STILL SEEMS TO BE WELL ON TRACK.
THOUGH WILL BE CURIOUS AS TO IF THIS SPOTTY SHOWER PATTERN WILL
ORGANIZE INTO A MORE WIDESPREAD EVENT...OR IF POPS WILL NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED DOWN LATER IN THE NIGHT. HOPEFULLY AS THE BOUNDARY NEARS AND
RH VALUES INCREASE...WE WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN THE PRECIP
ACTIVITY AS WELL. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THE BEST MOISTURE MOVING
INTO EASTERN KY BETWEEN 9 AND 12Z. REGARDLESS...BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS...AND FORECASTED QPF...ULTIMATELY DECIDED TO TAKE OUT ANY
MENTION OF MODERATE RAINFALL. THOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW HEAVIER
ISOLATED CELLS...OVERALL EXPECT THIS TO BE A SMALL AMOUNTING EVENT.
THIS MAY NEED TO BE LOOKED AT AGAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT PACKAGE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 736 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

FORECAST SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY WELL ON TRACK SO FAR. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE INCOMING FRONT AND RESULTING RAIN/TSRA CHANCES ACROSS THE
REGION AS IT GETS CLOSER...IN CASE ANY UPDATES NEED TO BE MADE AS A
RESULT. OTHERWISE...LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR
TEMPS...WINDS...AND DEW POINTS...TO MAKE SURE ONGOING FORECAST LINED
UP WITH ONGOING CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST AS MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE EAST. WARM TEMPS HAVE REALLY
DRIED OUT SOME OF THE VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST
WITH RH DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 20S AND UPPER TEENS. ALSO...WE HAVE
HAD A BIT MORE MIXING AS SOME ISOLATED RIDGE TOPS HAVE REACHED 15
MPH. GIVEN THE FACT THAT WE HAVE HAD OUR DEWS NOT RESPONDING WELL TO
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THE MOS SEEMINGLY AGREEING WITH THE LOWER
DEWS...HAVE LOWERED THEM THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND EVEN LOWERED THE
QPF EXPECTED FROM THE ONCOMING FRONT TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIP WILL ARRIVE BY 06Z TONIGHT IN THE WESTERN LOCATIONS. THOUGH
THE ACTIVITY WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT...SOME INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
FOR SOME THUNDER TONIGHT SO HAVE PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS
MAY GET MORE THAN A COUPLE TENTHS OF RAINFALL BUT THE OVERALL DRY
PATTERN WILL LIMIT THIS.

THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE QUITE COOLER FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH THE TEMPS OVER THE BLUEGRASS DROPPING INTO THE 30S. THE DRY
CONDITIONS WILL STILL A FACTOR AS WELL WITH THE DEWS DROPPING INTO
THE 30S AS WELL. THE OVERALL FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE BASED UPON
THE IMPACT OF THE SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSING FRONT AS THE SOAKING PROVIDED WILL FACTOR IN HOW LOW RH WILL
DROP INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. ALSO THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME
PATCHY FROST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS THROUGH THE
LOCATIONS WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

FORECAST MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT BEFORE THE START OF
THE WEEKEND. TRANSIENT RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY BEFORE A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND MOVE
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...THE
MAIN TROUGH/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
DAKOTAS AND THEN INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON THU NIGHT AND THEN INTO
EASTERN CANADA TO START THE WEEKEND. AT THE SFC...A SFC LOW SHOULD
TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FROM WED
NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. THIS LOW AND THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
SEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON THU NIGHT INTO EARLY ON FRIDAY.
MODELS THEN HANDLE THIS TROUGH MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN US AND THE EVENTUAL PATTERN LATE IN THE PERIOD BOTH
IN TIMING AND AMPLIFICATION. THEREFORE...FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS BELOW AVERAGE.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. WE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES EACH AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ON WED. THEN A STRUNG
OUT COLD FRONT IS THEN PROGGED TO PASS QUICKLY THROUGH OUR AREA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MODEL GENERATED QPF IS LEAN...AS
IS INSTABILITY...AND ONLY EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
60 PERCENT POPS AND ONLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AS THE
FRONT PASSES. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...FORECAST MODELS THEN PAINT
DIFFERENT SCENARIOS OVER THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY WHEN LOOKING AT
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS POINT...THE CR DATA GRID LOAD BLENDING
MODEL DATA AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CONTINUED TO BE REASONABLE
UNTIL THERE IS MORE MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE PATTERN. THIS BLEND
RESULTS IN A DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
RETURN TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 734 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH 03Z
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT WITH
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS EXPECTED. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO DROP CEILINGS ACROSS THE TAF SITES AROUND 10Z TOMORROW
MORNING. EXPECT REDUCED VISIBILITY AND LOWER CEILINGS INTO IFR RANGES
WITH THE SHOWERS FROM 10Z THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY. OBVIOUSLY...THE INTENSITY OF THE STORM...AS WELL IS ITS
LOCATION IN PROXIMITY TO THE AIRPORT...WILL DRIVE THE PREVAILING
WIND...VIS...AND CIG CONDITIONS...SO UPDATES MAY NEED TO BE MADE AS
STORMS DEVELOP AND APPROACH ANY AIRPORTS. DRY AIR WILL THEN BEGIN TO
FILTER IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS COMING TO AN END AND CIGS
RISING TO VFR AGAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JMW







000
FXUS63 KJKL 220234
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1034 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1034 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPECKLE WEST AND CENTRAL KY AS THEY
SLOWLY MOVE IN OUR DIRECTION. HOWEVER...AS OF NOW...THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION HAS BEEN TOO MUCH TO OVERCOME FOR ANY THUNDER TO DEVELOP.
MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS. FIRST...WITH THE LACK OF THUNDER ACROSS THE AREA WITH
THIS SYSTEM...AND BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS...DECIDED TO
TAKE OUT ANY MENTION OF ISOLATED TSRA UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS
POINT...ANY ONGOING SHOWERS COULD WORK TO COOL THE LLVLS...AND
ALLEVIATE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION...MAKING IT EASIER FOR STORMS TO
DEVELOP. THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE WEAK BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING WILL ALSO HELP TO
SPARK ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

ALSO...SINCE PRECIP IS ONGOING...DECIDED TO CHANGE THE WEATHER GRIDS
FROM PROBABILITY TO COVERAGE...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED TO
IMPACT EASTERN KY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERALL THE TIMING FOR
THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH TOMORROW STILL SEEMS TO BE WELL ON TRACK.
THOUGH WILL BE CURIOUS AS TO IF THIS SPOTTY SHOWER PATTERN WILL
ORGANIZE INTO A MORE WIDESPREAD EVENT...OR IF POPS WILL NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED DOWN LATER IN THE NIGHT. HOPEFULLY AS THE BOUNDARY NEARS AND
RH VALUES INCREASE...WE WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN THE PRECIP
ACTIVITY AS WELL. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THE BEST MOISTURE MOVING
INTO EASTERN KY BETWEEN 9 AND 12Z. REGARDLESS...BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS...AND FORECASTED QPF...ULTIMATELY DECIDED TO TAKE OUT ANY
MENTION OF MODERATE RAINFALL. THOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW HEAVIER
ISOLATED CELLS...OVERALL EXPECT THIS TO BE A SMALL AMOUNTING EVENT.
THIS MAY NEED TO BE LOOKED AT AGAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT PACKAGE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 736 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

FORECAST SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY WELL ON TRACK SO FAR. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE INCOMING FRONT AND RESULTING RAIN/TSRA CHANCES ACROSS THE
REGION AS IT GETS CLOSER...IN CASE ANY UPDATES NEED TO BE MADE AS A
RESULT. OTHERWISE...LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR
TEMPS...WINDS...AND DEW POINTS...TO MAKE SURE ONGOING FORECAST LINED
UP WITH ONGOING CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST AS MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE EAST. WARM TEMPS HAVE REALLY
DRIED OUT SOME OF THE VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST
WITH RH DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 20S AND UPPER TEENS. ALSO...WE HAVE
HAD A BIT MORE MIXING AS SOME ISOLATED RIDGE TOPS HAVE REACHED 15
MPH. GIVEN THE FACT THAT WE HAVE HAD OUR DEWS NOT RESPONDING WELL TO
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THE MOS SEEMINGLY AGREEING WITH THE LOWER
DEWS...HAVE LOWERED THEM THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND EVEN LOWERED THE
QPF EXPECTED FROM THE ONCOMING FRONT TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIP WILL ARRIVE BY 06Z TONIGHT IN THE WESTERN LOCATIONS. THOUGH
THE ACTIVITY WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT...SOME INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
FOR SOME THUNDER TONIGHT SO HAVE PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS
MAY GET MORE THAN A COUPLE TENTHS OF RAINFALL BUT THE OVERALL DRY
PATTERN WILL LIMIT THIS.

THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE QUITE COOLER FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH THE TEMPS OVER THE BLUEGRASS DROPPING INTO THE 30S. THE DRY
CONDITIONS WILL STILL A FACTOR AS WELL WITH THE DEWS DROPPING INTO
THE 30S AS WELL. THE OVERALL FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE BASED UPON
THE IMPACT OF THE SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSING FRONT AS THE SOAKING PROVIDED WILL FACTOR IN HOW LOW RH WILL
DROP INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. ALSO THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME
PATCHY FROST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS THROUGH THE
LOCATIONS WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

FORECAST MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT BEFORE THE START OF
THE WEEKEND. TRANSIENT RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY BEFORE A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND MOVE
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...THE
MAIN TROUGH/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
DAKOTAS AND THEN INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON THU NIGHT AND THEN INTO
EASTERN CANADA TO START THE WEEKEND. AT THE SFC...A SFC LOW SHOULD
TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FROM WED
NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. THIS LOW AND THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
SEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON THU NIGHT INTO EARLY ON FRIDAY.
MODELS THEN HANDLE THIS TROUGH MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN US AND THE EVENTUAL PATTERN LATE IN THE PERIOD BOTH
IN TIMING AND AMPLIFICATION. THEREFORE...FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS BELOW AVERAGE.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. WE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES EACH AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ON WED. THEN A STRUNG
OUT COLD FRONT IS THEN PROGGED TO PASS QUICKLY THROUGH OUR AREA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MODEL GENERATED QPF IS LEAN...AS
IS INSTABILITY...AND ONLY EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
60 PERCENT POPS AND ONLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AS THE
FRONT PASSES. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...FORECAST MODELS THEN PAINT
DIFFERENT SCENARIOS OVER THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY WHEN LOOKING AT
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS POINT...THE CR DATA GRID LOAD BLENDING
MODEL DATA AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CONTINUED TO BE REASONABLE
UNTIL THERE IS MORE MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE PATTERN. THIS BLEND
RESULTS IN A DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
RETURN TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 734 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH 03Z
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT WITH
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS EXPECTED. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO DROP CEILINGS ACROSS THE TAF SITES AROUND 10Z TOMORROW
MORNING. EXPECT REDUCED VISIBILITY AND LOWER CEILINGS INTO IFR RANGES
WITH THE SHOWERS FROM 10Z THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY. OBVIOUSLY...THE INTENSITY OF THE STORM...AS WELL IS ITS
LOCATION IN PROXIMITY TO THE AIRPORT...WILL DRIVE THE PREVAILING
WIND...VIS...AND CIG CONDITIONS...SO UPDATES MAY NEED TO BE MADE AS
STORMS DEVELOP AND APPROACH ANY AIRPORTS. DRY AIR WILL THEN BEGIN TO
FILTER IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS COMING TO AN END AND CIGS
RISING TO VFR AGAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JMW








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