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000
FXUS63 KJKL 101845 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
145 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 145 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

THE LAST OF THIS SNOW IS STILL PACKING A PUNCH WITH JKL VIS GOING
DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE IN A SHOWER JUST THIS PAST HOUR AND THE
RADAR STILL RATHER ROBUST FOR OUR EASTERNMOST AREAS.
ACCORDINGLY...HAVE GONE WITH AN ADVISORY IN THE FAR EAST THROUGH
6 PM WHILE ALLOWING THE WESTERN ONE TO EXPIRE. THE POPS AND SNOW
AMOUNTS WERE ALSO UPPED THROUGH 00Z WITH THIS UPDATE ALONG WITH A
FINE TUNING OF THE T AND TD GRIDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE
NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 932 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND MESO SCALE MODELS...HAVE
EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM. HAVE ALSO
INCREASED POPS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

THE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH OUT THE DAY TODAY AND
THE FRIGIDLY COLD TEMPERATURES WE WILL BE EXPERIENCING ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AS A LARGE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS
THE UPPER LOW FINALLY PULLS SLOWLY OFF TO OUR EAST AND HEADS INTO
NEW ENGLAND. THE LAST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA BY
AROUND 5Z TONIGHT. DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS...NO WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TODAY. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART...WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS...LIKELY
ON THE ORDER OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH IN MOST
INSTANCES. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE LEFT IN PLACE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS AND THE SLICK ROAD
CONDITIONS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES THEY WILL CREATE FROM TIME TO
TIME THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.

DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WE HAVE IN PLACE...AND CONTINUED
COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS...TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY ONLY BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 20S AROUND THE
AREA. THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...AS THE
MERCURY IS EXPECTED TO DIP TO AROUND 10 DEGREES AROUND THE AREA.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER...AS CLOUD COVER BECOMES
SCATTERED AND WE FINALLY GETS SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW SPOTS SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND
HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDOR PERHAPS MAXING OUT AROUND 30 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS HUDSON BAY LOW REMAINS PARKED. AFTER
A COLD BUT DRY PERIOD LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SWING AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN FRINGES OF THIS LOW AND
COMBINE WITH A PERIOD OF INCREASING MOISTURE TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT
SNOW FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY EVENING. GENERALLY EXPECTING AROUND
OR LESS THAN A HALF AN INCH OF SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM AS BOTH
LIFT AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER SHORT LIVED. LOCALES
NEARER THE VIRGINIA BORDER AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN COULD SEE AN
INCH OR MORE AS UPSLOPE WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING.

A POTENT BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR WILL THEN ADVECT SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF A 1040+ MB SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 20 DEGREES WITH MORE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...SUCH
AS BLACK MOUNTAIN...PERHAPS BEING LUCKY TO REACH DOUBLE DIGITS.
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD FOR SUNDAY MORNING WILL
MAKE FOR SINGLE DIGIT LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE BOARD.

BACKING UPPER FLOW WILL THEN ENSUE FOR LATER SUNDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK...LIKELY BRINGING A LONG AWAITED WARM UP TO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS LOOKS TO PUSH ACROSS LOWER
CANADA AND TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN PLAY FOR MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK AT THIS POINT. WHILE
WARMING TEMPERATURES EACH DAY APPEAR IN THE OFFING AT THIS
TIME...WILL HAVE TO WATCH EVOLUTION/PHASING OF THESE DISTURBANCES
IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE DEGREE OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THEY WILL
PRODUCE IN ORDER TO BETTER PINPOINT TEMPERATURES AND SUBSEQUENTLY
TRANSITION OF PRECIPITATION TYPE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...ESPECIALLY FROM JKL
EAST. IN GENERAL...THE TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE MAINLY MVFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS. A FEW OF THE
SHOWERS WILL BRING VIS TO LIFR AND ALONG WITH IFR CIGS...BUT THEY
SHOULD BE MORE INFREQUENT THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH 15 TO 20 KT WIND GUSTS FROM THE WEST. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE WEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF AROUND
15 KTS. THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ONLY ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS STILL AROUND BY 00Z. THE
LAST REMAINING SNOW FLURRIES SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA BY 06Z
TONIGHT WITH ANY MVFR AND LOW VFR CIGS BREAKING UP TOWARDS DAWN.
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR THE
REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ087-
088-104-106>110-112-113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GUSEMAN
AVIATION...GREIF





000
FXUS63 KJKL 101845 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
145 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 145 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

THE LAST OF THIS SNOW IS STILL PACKING A PUNCH WITH JKL VIS GOING
DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE IN A SHOWER JUST THIS PAST HOUR AND THE
RADAR STILL RATHER ROBUST FOR OUR EASTERNMOST AREAS.
ACCORDINGLY...HAVE GONE WITH AN ADVISORY IN THE FAR EAST THROUGH
6 PM WHILE ALLOWING THE WESTERN ONE TO EXPIRE. THE POPS AND SNOW
AMOUNTS WERE ALSO UPPED THROUGH 00Z WITH THIS UPDATE ALONG WITH A
FINE TUNING OF THE T AND TD GRIDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE
NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 932 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND MESO SCALE MODELS...HAVE
EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM. HAVE ALSO
INCREASED POPS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

THE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH OUT THE DAY TODAY AND
THE FRIGIDLY COLD TEMPERATURES WE WILL BE EXPERIENCING ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AS A LARGE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS
THE UPPER LOW FINALLY PULLS SLOWLY OFF TO OUR EAST AND HEADS INTO
NEW ENGLAND. THE LAST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA BY
AROUND 5Z TONIGHT. DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS...NO WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TODAY. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART...WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS...LIKELY
ON THE ORDER OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH IN MOST
INSTANCES. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE LEFT IN PLACE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS AND THE SLICK ROAD
CONDITIONS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES THEY WILL CREATE FROM TIME TO
TIME THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.

DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WE HAVE IN PLACE...AND CONTINUED
COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS...TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY ONLY BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 20S AROUND THE
AREA. THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...AS THE
MERCURY IS EXPECTED TO DIP TO AROUND 10 DEGREES AROUND THE AREA.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER...AS CLOUD COVER BECOMES
SCATTERED AND WE FINALLY GETS SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW SPOTS SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND
HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDOR PERHAPS MAXING OUT AROUND 30 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS HUDSON BAY LOW REMAINS PARKED. AFTER
A COLD BUT DRY PERIOD LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SWING AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN FRINGES OF THIS LOW AND
COMBINE WITH A PERIOD OF INCREASING MOISTURE TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT
SNOW FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY EVENING. GENERALLY EXPECTING AROUND
OR LESS THAN A HALF AN INCH OF SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM AS BOTH
LIFT AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER SHORT LIVED. LOCALES
NEARER THE VIRGINIA BORDER AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN COULD SEE AN
INCH OR MORE AS UPSLOPE WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING.

A POTENT BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR WILL THEN ADVECT SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF A 1040+ MB SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 20 DEGREES WITH MORE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...SUCH
AS BLACK MOUNTAIN...PERHAPS BEING LUCKY TO REACH DOUBLE DIGITS.
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD FOR SUNDAY MORNING WILL
MAKE FOR SINGLE DIGIT LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE BOARD.

BACKING UPPER FLOW WILL THEN ENSUE FOR LATER SUNDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK...LIKELY BRINGING A LONG AWAITED WARM UP TO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS LOOKS TO PUSH ACROSS LOWER
CANADA AND TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN PLAY FOR MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK AT THIS POINT. WHILE
WARMING TEMPERATURES EACH DAY APPEAR IN THE OFFING AT THIS
TIME...WILL HAVE TO WATCH EVOLUTION/PHASING OF THESE DISTURBANCES
IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE DEGREE OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THEY WILL
PRODUCE IN ORDER TO BETTER PINPOINT TEMPERATURES AND SUBSEQUENTLY
TRANSITION OF PRECIPITATION TYPE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...ESPECIALLY FROM JKL
EAST. IN GENERAL...THE TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE MAINLY MVFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS. A FEW OF THE
SHOWERS WILL BRING VIS TO LIFR AND ALONG WITH IFR CIGS...BUT THEY
SHOULD BE MORE INFREQUENT THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH 15 TO 20 KT WIND GUSTS FROM THE WEST. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE WEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF AROUND
15 KTS. THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ONLY ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS STILL AROUND BY 00Z. THE
LAST REMAINING SNOW FLURRIES SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA BY 06Z
TONIGHT WITH ANY MVFR AND LOW VFR CIGS BREAKING UP TOWARDS DAWN.
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR THE
REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ087-
088-104-106>110-112-113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GUSEMAN
AVIATION...GREIF





000
FXUS63 KJKL 101845 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
145 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 145 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

THE LAST OF THIS SNOW IS STILL PACKING A PUNCH WITH JKL VIS GOING
DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE IN A SHOWER JUST THIS PAST HOUR AND THE
RADAR STILL RATHER ROBUST FOR OUR EASTERNMOST AREAS.
ACCORDINGLY...HAVE GONE WITH AN ADVISORY IN THE FAR EAST THROUGH
6 PM WHILE ALLOWING THE WESTERN ONE TO EXPIRE. THE POPS AND SNOW
AMOUNTS WERE ALSO UPPED THROUGH 00Z WITH THIS UPDATE ALONG WITH A
FINE TUNING OF THE T AND TD GRIDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE
NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 932 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND MESO SCALE MODELS...HAVE
EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM. HAVE ALSO
INCREASED POPS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

THE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH OUT THE DAY TODAY AND
THE FRIGIDLY COLD TEMPERATURES WE WILL BE EXPERIENCING ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AS A LARGE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS
THE UPPER LOW FINALLY PULLS SLOWLY OFF TO OUR EAST AND HEADS INTO
NEW ENGLAND. THE LAST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA BY
AROUND 5Z TONIGHT. DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS...NO WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TODAY. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART...WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS...LIKELY
ON THE ORDER OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH IN MOST
INSTANCES. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE LEFT IN PLACE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS AND THE SLICK ROAD
CONDITIONS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES THEY WILL CREATE FROM TIME TO
TIME THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.

DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WE HAVE IN PLACE...AND CONTINUED
COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS...TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY ONLY BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 20S AROUND THE
AREA. THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...AS THE
MERCURY IS EXPECTED TO DIP TO AROUND 10 DEGREES AROUND THE AREA.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER...AS CLOUD COVER BECOMES
SCATTERED AND WE FINALLY GETS SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW SPOTS SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND
HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDOR PERHAPS MAXING OUT AROUND 30 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS HUDSON BAY LOW REMAINS PARKED. AFTER
A COLD BUT DRY PERIOD LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SWING AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN FRINGES OF THIS LOW AND
COMBINE WITH A PERIOD OF INCREASING MOISTURE TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT
SNOW FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY EVENING. GENERALLY EXPECTING AROUND
OR LESS THAN A HALF AN INCH OF SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM AS BOTH
LIFT AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER SHORT LIVED. LOCALES
NEARER THE VIRGINIA BORDER AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN COULD SEE AN
INCH OR MORE AS UPSLOPE WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING.

A POTENT BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR WILL THEN ADVECT SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF A 1040+ MB SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 20 DEGREES WITH MORE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...SUCH
AS BLACK MOUNTAIN...PERHAPS BEING LUCKY TO REACH DOUBLE DIGITS.
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD FOR SUNDAY MORNING WILL
MAKE FOR SINGLE DIGIT LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE BOARD.

BACKING UPPER FLOW WILL THEN ENSUE FOR LATER SUNDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK...LIKELY BRINGING A LONG AWAITED WARM UP TO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS LOOKS TO PUSH ACROSS LOWER
CANADA AND TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN PLAY FOR MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK AT THIS POINT. WHILE
WARMING TEMPERATURES EACH DAY APPEAR IN THE OFFING AT THIS
TIME...WILL HAVE TO WATCH EVOLUTION/PHASING OF THESE DISTURBANCES
IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE DEGREE OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THEY WILL
PRODUCE IN ORDER TO BETTER PINPOINT TEMPERATURES AND SUBSEQUENTLY
TRANSITION OF PRECIPITATION TYPE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...ESPECIALLY FROM JKL
EAST. IN GENERAL...THE TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE MAINLY MVFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS. A FEW OF THE
SHOWERS WILL BRING VIS TO LIFR AND ALONG WITH IFR CIGS...BUT THEY
SHOULD BE MORE INFREQUENT THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH 15 TO 20 KT WIND GUSTS FROM THE WEST. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE WEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF AROUND
15 KTS. THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ONLY ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS STILL AROUND BY 00Z. THE
LAST REMAINING SNOW FLURRIES SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA BY 06Z
TONIGHT WITH ANY MVFR AND LOW VFR CIGS BREAKING UP TOWARDS DAWN.
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR THE
REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ087-
088-104-106>110-112-113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GUSEMAN
AVIATION...GREIF




000
FXUS63 KJKL 101433
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
933 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 932 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND MESO SCALE MODELS...HAVE
EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM. HAVE ALSO
INCREASED POPS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

THE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH OUT THE DAY TODAY AND
THE FRIGIDLY COLD TEMPERATURES WE WILL BE EXPERIENCING ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AS A LARGE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS
THE UPPER LOW FINALLY PULLS SLOWLY OFF TO OUR EAST AND HEADS INTO
NEW ENGLAND. THE LAST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA BY
AROUND 5Z TONIGHT. DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS...NO WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TODAY. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART...WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS...LIKELY
ON THE ORDER OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH IN MOST
INSTANCES. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE LEFT IN PLACE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS AND THE SLICK ROAD
CONDITIONS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES THEY WILL CREATE FROM TIME TO
TIME THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.

DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WE HAVE IN PLACE...AND CONTINUED
COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS...TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY ONLY BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 20S AROUND THE
AREA. THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...AS THE
MERCURY IS EXPECTED TO DIP TO AROUND 10 DEGREES AROUND THE AREA.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER...AS CLOUD COVER BECOMES
SCATTERED AND WE FINALLY GETS SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW SPOTS SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND
HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDOR PERHAPS MAXING OUT AROUND 30 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS HUDSON BAY LOW REMAINS PARKED. AFTER
A COLD BUT DRY PERIOD LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SWING AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN FRINGES OF THIS LOW AND
COMBINE WITH A PERIOD OF INCREASING MOISTURE TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT
SNOW FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY EVENING. GENERALLY EXPECTING AROUND
OR LESS THAN A HALF AN INCH OF SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM AS BOTH
LIFT AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER SHORT LIVED. LOCALES
NEARER THE VIRGINIA BORDER AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN COULD SEE AN
INCH OR MORE AS UPSLOPE WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING.

A POTENT BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR WILL THEN ADVECT SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF A 1040+ MB SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 20 DEGREES WITH MORE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...SUCH
AS BLACK MOUNTAIN...PERHAPS BEING LUCKY TO REACH DOUBLE DIGITS.
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD FOR SUNDAY MORNING WILL
MAKE FOR SINGLE DIGIT LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE BOARD.

BACKING UPPER FLOW WILL THEN ENSUE FOR LATER SUNDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK...LIKELY BRINGING A LONG AWAITED WARM UP TO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS LOOKS TO PUSH ACROSS LOWER
CANADA AND TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN PLAY FOR MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK AT THIS POINT. WHILE
WARMING TEMPERATURES EACH DAY APPEAR IN THE OFFING AT THIS
TIME...WILL HAVE TO WATCH EVOLUTION/PHASING OF THESE DISTURBANCES
IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE DEGREE OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THEY WILL
PRODUCE IN ORDER TO BETTER PINPOINT TEMPERATURES AND SUBSEQUENTLY
TRANSITION OF PRECIPITATION TYPE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
TODAY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. IN GENERAL...THE TAF SITES WILL
EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS...SNOW SHOWERS...OR
BOTH. THE MORE INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE IFR CONDITIONS AT
A GIVE AIRPORT ALONG WITH 15 TO 20 KT WIND GUSTS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE WEST AT 5 TO 12KTS WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 15
KTS OUTSIDE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS. THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF THIS MORNING WITH ONLY ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS STILL AROUND BY
18Z TODAY. THE LAST REMAINING SNOW SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA BY
6Z TONIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RPY
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GUSEMAN
AVIATION...AR





000
FXUS63 KJKL 101433
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
933 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 932 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND MESO SCALE MODELS...HAVE
EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM. HAVE ALSO
INCREASED POPS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

THE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH OUT THE DAY TODAY AND
THE FRIGIDLY COLD TEMPERATURES WE WILL BE EXPERIENCING ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AS A LARGE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS
THE UPPER LOW FINALLY PULLS SLOWLY OFF TO OUR EAST AND HEADS INTO
NEW ENGLAND. THE LAST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA BY
AROUND 5Z TONIGHT. DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS...NO WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TODAY. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART...WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS...LIKELY
ON THE ORDER OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH IN MOST
INSTANCES. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE LEFT IN PLACE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS AND THE SLICK ROAD
CONDITIONS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES THEY WILL CREATE FROM TIME TO
TIME THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.

DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WE HAVE IN PLACE...AND CONTINUED
COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS...TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY ONLY BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 20S AROUND THE
AREA. THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...AS THE
MERCURY IS EXPECTED TO DIP TO AROUND 10 DEGREES AROUND THE AREA.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER...AS CLOUD COVER BECOMES
SCATTERED AND WE FINALLY GETS SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW SPOTS SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND
HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDOR PERHAPS MAXING OUT AROUND 30 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS HUDSON BAY LOW REMAINS PARKED. AFTER
A COLD BUT DRY PERIOD LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SWING AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN FRINGES OF THIS LOW AND
COMBINE WITH A PERIOD OF INCREASING MOISTURE TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT
SNOW FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY EVENING. GENERALLY EXPECTING AROUND
OR LESS THAN A HALF AN INCH OF SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM AS BOTH
LIFT AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER SHORT LIVED. LOCALES
NEARER THE VIRGINIA BORDER AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN COULD SEE AN
INCH OR MORE AS UPSLOPE WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING.

A POTENT BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR WILL THEN ADVECT SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF A 1040+ MB SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 20 DEGREES WITH MORE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...SUCH
AS BLACK MOUNTAIN...PERHAPS BEING LUCKY TO REACH DOUBLE DIGITS.
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD FOR SUNDAY MORNING WILL
MAKE FOR SINGLE DIGIT LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE BOARD.

BACKING UPPER FLOW WILL THEN ENSUE FOR LATER SUNDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK...LIKELY BRINGING A LONG AWAITED WARM UP TO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS LOOKS TO PUSH ACROSS LOWER
CANADA AND TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN PLAY FOR MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK AT THIS POINT. WHILE
WARMING TEMPERATURES EACH DAY APPEAR IN THE OFFING AT THIS
TIME...WILL HAVE TO WATCH EVOLUTION/PHASING OF THESE DISTURBANCES
IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE DEGREE OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THEY WILL
PRODUCE IN ORDER TO BETTER PINPOINT TEMPERATURES AND SUBSEQUENTLY
TRANSITION OF PRECIPITATION TYPE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
TODAY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. IN GENERAL...THE TAF SITES WILL
EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS...SNOW SHOWERS...OR
BOTH. THE MORE INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE IFR CONDITIONS AT
A GIVE AIRPORT ALONG WITH 15 TO 20 KT WIND GUSTS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE WEST AT 5 TO 12KTS WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 15
KTS OUTSIDE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS. THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF THIS MORNING WITH ONLY ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS STILL AROUND BY
18Z TODAY. THE LAST REMAINING SNOW SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA BY
6Z TONIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RPY
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GUSEMAN
AVIATION...AR





000
FXUS63 KJKL 101433
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
933 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 932 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND MESO SCALE MODELS...HAVE
EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM. HAVE ALSO
INCREASED POPS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

THE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH OUT THE DAY TODAY AND
THE FRIGIDLY COLD TEMPERATURES WE WILL BE EXPERIENCING ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AS A LARGE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS
THE UPPER LOW FINALLY PULLS SLOWLY OFF TO OUR EAST AND HEADS INTO
NEW ENGLAND. THE LAST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA BY
AROUND 5Z TONIGHT. DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS...NO WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TODAY. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART...WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS...LIKELY
ON THE ORDER OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH IN MOST
INSTANCES. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE LEFT IN PLACE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS AND THE SLICK ROAD
CONDITIONS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES THEY WILL CREATE FROM TIME TO
TIME THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.

DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WE HAVE IN PLACE...AND CONTINUED
COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS...TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY ONLY BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 20S AROUND THE
AREA. THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...AS THE
MERCURY IS EXPECTED TO DIP TO AROUND 10 DEGREES AROUND THE AREA.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER...AS CLOUD COVER BECOMES
SCATTERED AND WE FINALLY GETS SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW SPOTS SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND
HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDOR PERHAPS MAXING OUT AROUND 30 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS HUDSON BAY LOW REMAINS PARKED. AFTER
A COLD BUT DRY PERIOD LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SWING AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN FRINGES OF THIS LOW AND
COMBINE WITH A PERIOD OF INCREASING MOISTURE TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT
SNOW FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY EVENING. GENERALLY EXPECTING AROUND
OR LESS THAN A HALF AN INCH OF SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM AS BOTH
LIFT AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER SHORT LIVED. LOCALES
NEARER THE VIRGINIA BORDER AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN COULD SEE AN
INCH OR MORE AS UPSLOPE WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING.

A POTENT BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR WILL THEN ADVECT SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF A 1040+ MB SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 20 DEGREES WITH MORE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...SUCH
AS BLACK MOUNTAIN...PERHAPS BEING LUCKY TO REACH DOUBLE DIGITS.
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD FOR SUNDAY MORNING WILL
MAKE FOR SINGLE DIGIT LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE BOARD.

BACKING UPPER FLOW WILL THEN ENSUE FOR LATER SUNDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK...LIKELY BRINGING A LONG AWAITED WARM UP TO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS LOOKS TO PUSH ACROSS LOWER
CANADA AND TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN PLAY FOR MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK AT THIS POINT. WHILE
WARMING TEMPERATURES EACH DAY APPEAR IN THE OFFING AT THIS
TIME...WILL HAVE TO WATCH EVOLUTION/PHASING OF THESE DISTURBANCES
IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE DEGREE OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THEY WILL
PRODUCE IN ORDER TO BETTER PINPOINT TEMPERATURES AND SUBSEQUENTLY
TRANSITION OF PRECIPITATION TYPE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
TODAY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. IN GENERAL...THE TAF SITES WILL
EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS...SNOW SHOWERS...OR
BOTH. THE MORE INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE IFR CONDITIONS AT
A GIVE AIRPORT ALONG WITH 15 TO 20 KT WIND GUSTS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE WEST AT 5 TO 12KTS WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 15
KTS OUTSIDE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS. THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF THIS MORNING WITH ONLY ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS STILL AROUND BY
18Z TODAY. THE LAST REMAINING SNOW SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA BY
6Z TONIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RPY
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GUSEMAN
AVIATION...AR




000
FXUS63 KJKL 101127
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
627 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

THE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH OUT THE DAY TODAY AND
THE FRIGIDLY COLD TEMPERATURES WE WILL BE EXPERIENCING ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AS A LARGE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS
THE UPPER LOW FINALLY PULLS SLOWLY OFF TO OUR EAST AND HEADS INTO
NEW ENGLAND. THE LAST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA BY
AROUND 5Z TONIGHT. DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS...NO WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TODAY. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART...WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS...LIKELY
ON THE ORDER OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH IN MOST
INSTANCES. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE LEFT IN PLACE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS AND THE SLICK ROAD
CONDITIONS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES THEY WILL CREATE FROM TIME TO
TIME THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.

DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WE HAVE IN PLACE...AND CONTINUED
COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS...TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY ONLY BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 20S AROUND THE
AREA. THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...AS THE
MERCURY IS EXPECTED TO DIP TO AROUND 10 DEGREES AROUND THE AREA.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER...AS CLOUD COVER BECOMES
SCATTERED AND WE FINALLY GETS SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW SPOTS SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND
HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDOR PERHAPS MAXING OUT AROUND 30 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS HUDSON BAY LOW REMAINS PARKED. AFTER
A COLD BUT DRY PERIOD LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SWING AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN FRINGES OF THIS LOW AND
COMBINE WITH A PERIOD OF INCREASING MOISTURE TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT
SNOW FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY EVENING. GENERALLY EXPECTING AROUND
OR LESS THAN A HALF AN INCH OF SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM AS BOTH
LIFT AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER SHORT LIVED. LOCALES
NEARER THE VIRGINIA BORDER AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN COULD SEE AN
INCH OR MORE AS UPSLOPE WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING.

A POTENT BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR WILL THEN ADVECT SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF A 1040+ MB SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 20 DEGREES WITH MORE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...SUCH
AS BLACK MOUNTAIN...PERHAPS BEING LUCKY TO REACH DOUBLE DIGITS.
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD FOR SUNDAY MORNING WILL
MAKE FOR SINGLE DIGIT LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE BOARD.

BACKING UPPER FLOW WILL THEN ENSUE FOR LATER SUNDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK...LIKELY BRINGING A LONG AWAITED WARM UP TO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS LOOKS TO PUSH ACROSS LOWER
CANADA AND TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN PLAY FOR MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK AT THIS POINT. WHILE
WARMING TEMPERATURES EACH DAY APPEAR IN THE OFFING AT THIS
TIME...WILL HAVE TO WATCH EVOLUTION/PHASING OF THESE DISTURBANCES
IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE DEGREE OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THEY WILL
PRODUCE IN ORDER TO BETTER PINPOINT TEMPERATURES AND SUBSEQUENTLY
TRANSITION OF PRECIPITATION TYPE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
TODAY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. IN GENERAL...THE TAF SITES WILL
EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS...SNOW SHOWERS...OR
BOTH. THE MORE INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE IFR CONDITIONS AT
A GIVE AIRPORT ALONG WITH 15 TO 20 KT WIND GUSTS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE WEST AT 5 TO 12KTS WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 15
KTS OUTSIDE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS. THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF THIS MORNING WITH ONLY ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS STILL AROUND BY
18Z TODAY. THE LAST REMAINING SNOW SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA BY
6Z TONIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GUSEMAN
AVIATION...AR





000
FXUS63 KJKL 101127
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
627 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

THE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH OUT THE DAY TODAY AND
THE FRIGIDLY COLD TEMPERATURES WE WILL BE EXPERIENCING ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AS A LARGE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS
THE UPPER LOW FINALLY PULLS SLOWLY OFF TO OUR EAST AND HEADS INTO
NEW ENGLAND. THE LAST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA BY
AROUND 5Z TONIGHT. DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS...NO WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TODAY. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART...WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS...LIKELY
ON THE ORDER OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH IN MOST
INSTANCES. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE LEFT IN PLACE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS AND THE SLICK ROAD
CONDITIONS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES THEY WILL CREATE FROM TIME TO
TIME THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.

DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WE HAVE IN PLACE...AND CONTINUED
COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS...TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY ONLY BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 20S AROUND THE
AREA. THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...AS THE
MERCURY IS EXPECTED TO DIP TO AROUND 10 DEGREES AROUND THE AREA.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER...AS CLOUD COVER BECOMES
SCATTERED AND WE FINALLY GETS SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW SPOTS SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND
HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDOR PERHAPS MAXING OUT AROUND 30 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS HUDSON BAY LOW REMAINS PARKED. AFTER
A COLD BUT DRY PERIOD LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SWING AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN FRINGES OF THIS LOW AND
COMBINE WITH A PERIOD OF INCREASING MOISTURE TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT
SNOW FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY EVENING. GENERALLY EXPECTING AROUND
OR LESS THAN A HALF AN INCH OF SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM AS BOTH
LIFT AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER SHORT LIVED. LOCALES
NEARER THE VIRGINIA BORDER AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN COULD SEE AN
INCH OR MORE AS UPSLOPE WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING.

A POTENT BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR WILL THEN ADVECT SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF A 1040+ MB SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 20 DEGREES WITH MORE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...SUCH
AS BLACK MOUNTAIN...PERHAPS BEING LUCKY TO REACH DOUBLE DIGITS.
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD FOR SUNDAY MORNING WILL
MAKE FOR SINGLE DIGIT LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE BOARD.

BACKING UPPER FLOW WILL THEN ENSUE FOR LATER SUNDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK...LIKELY BRINGING A LONG AWAITED WARM UP TO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS LOOKS TO PUSH ACROSS LOWER
CANADA AND TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN PLAY FOR MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK AT THIS POINT. WHILE
WARMING TEMPERATURES EACH DAY APPEAR IN THE OFFING AT THIS
TIME...WILL HAVE TO WATCH EVOLUTION/PHASING OF THESE DISTURBANCES
IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE DEGREE OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THEY WILL
PRODUCE IN ORDER TO BETTER PINPOINT TEMPERATURES AND SUBSEQUENTLY
TRANSITION OF PRECIPITATION TYPE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
TODAY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. IN GENERAL...THE TAF SITES WILL
EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS...SNOW SHOWERS...OR
BOTH. THE MORE INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE IFR CONDITIONS AT
A GIVE AIRPORT ALONG WITH 15 TO 20 KT WIND GUSTS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE WEST AT 5 TO 12KTS WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 15
KTS OUTSIDE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS. THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF THIS MORNING WITH ONLY ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS STILL AROUND BY
18Z TODAY. THE LAST REMAINING SNOW SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA BY
6Z TONIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GUSEMAN
AVIATION...AR




000
FXUS63 KJKL 101127
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
627 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

THE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH OUT THE DAY TODAY AND
THE FRIGIDLY COLD TEMPERATURES WE WILL BE EXPERIENCING ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AS A LARGE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS
THE UPPER LOW FINALLY PULLS SLOWLY OFF TO OUR EAST AND HEADS INTO
NEW ENGLAND. THE LAST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA BY
AROUND 5Z TONIGHT. DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS...NO WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TODAY. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART...WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS...LIKELY
ON THE ORDER OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH IN MOST
INSTANCES. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE LEFT IN PLACE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS AND THE SLICK ROAD
CONDITIONS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES THEY WILL CREATE FROM TIME TO
TIME THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.

DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WE HAVE IN PLACE...AND CONTINUED
COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS...TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY ONLY BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 20S AROUND THE
AREA. THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...AS THE
MERCURY IS EXPECTED TO DIP TO AROUND 10 DEGREES AROUND THE AREA.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER...AS CLOUD COVER BECOMES
SCATTERED AND WE FINALLY GETS SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW SPOTS SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND
HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDOR PERHAPS MAXING OUT AROUND 30 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS HUDSON BAY LOW REMAINS PARKED. AFTER
A COLD BUT DRY PERIOD LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SWING AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN FRINGES OF THIS LOW AND
COMBINE WITH A PERIOD OF INCREASING MOISTURE TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT
SNOW FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY EVENING. GENERALLY EXPECTING AROUND
OR LESS THAN A HALF AN INCH OF SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM AS BOTH
LIFT AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER SHORT LIVED. LOCALES
NEARER THE VIRGINIA BORDER AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN COULD SEE AN
INCH OR MORE AS UPSLOPE WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING.

A POTENT BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR WILL THEN ADVECT SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF A 1040+ MB SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 20 DEGREES WITH MORE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...SUCH
AS BLACK MOUNTAIN...PERHAPS BEING LUCKY TO REACH DOUBLE DIGITS.
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD FOR SUNDAY MORNING WILL
MAKE FOR SINGLE DIGIT LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE BOARD.

BACKING UPPER FLOW WILL THEN ENSUE FOR LATER SUNDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK...LIKELY BRINGING A LONG AWAITED WARM UP TO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS LOOKS TO PUSH ACROSS LOWER
CANADA AND TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN PLAY FOR MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK AT THIS POINT. WHILE
WARMING TEMPERATURES EACH DAY APPEAR IN THE OFFING AT THIS
TIME...WILL HAVE TO WATCH EVOLUTION/PHASING OF THESE DISTURBANCES
IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE DEGREE OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THEY WILL
PRODUCE IN ORDER TO BETTER PINPOINT TEMPERATURES AND SUBSEQUENTLY
TRANSITION OF PRECIPITATION TYPE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
TODAY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. IN GENERAL...THE TAF SITES WILL
EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS...SNOW SHOWERS...OR
BOTH. THE MORE INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE IFR CONDITIONS AT
A GIVE AIRPORT ALONG WITH 15 TO 20 KT WIND GUSTS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE WEST AT 5 TO 12KTS WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 15
KTS OUTSIDE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS. THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF THIS MORNING WITH ONLY ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS STILL AROUND BY
18Z TODAY. THE LAST REMAINING SNOW SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA BY
6Z TONIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GUSEMAN
AVIATION...AR





000
FXUS63 KJKL 100916
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
416 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

THE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH OUT THE DAY TODAY AND
THE FRIGIDLY COLD TEMPERATURES WE WILL BE EXPERIENCING ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AS A LARGE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS
THE UPPER LOW FINALLY PULLS SLOWLY OFF TO OUR EAST AND HEADS INTO
NEW ENGLAND. THE LAST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA BY
AROUND 5Z TONIGHT. DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS...NO WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TODAY. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART...WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS...LIKELY
ON THE ORDER OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH IN MOST
INSTANCES. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE LEFT IN PLACE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS AND THE SLICK ROAD
CONDITIONS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES THEY WILL CREATE FROM TIME TO
TIME THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.

DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WE HAVE IN PLACE...AND CONTINUED
COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS...TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY ONLY BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 20S AROUND THE
AREA. THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...AS THE
MERCURY IS EXPECTED TO DIP TO AROUND 10 DEGREES AROUND THE AREA.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER...AS CLOUD COVER BECOMES
SCATTERED AND WE FINALLY GETS SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW SPOTS SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND
HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDOR PERHAPS MAXING OUT AROUND 30 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS HUDSON BAY LOW REMAINS PARKED. AFTER
A COLD BUT DRY PERIOD LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SWING AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN FRINGES OF THIS LOW AND
COMBINE WITH A PERIOD OF INCREASING MOISTURE TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT
SNOW FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY EVENING. GENERALLY EXPECTING AROUND
OR LESS THAN A HALF AN INCH OF SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM AS BOTH
LIFT AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER SHORT LIVED. LOCALES
NEARER THE VIRGINIA BORDER AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN COULD SEE AN
INCH OR MORE AS UPSLOPE WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING.

A POTENT BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR WILL THEN ADVECT SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF A 1040+ MB SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 20 DEGREES WITH MORE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...SUCH
AS BLACK MOUNTAIN...PERHAPS BEING LUCKY TO REACH DOUBLE DIGITS.
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD FOR SUNDAY MORNING WILL
MAKE FOR SINGLE DIGIT LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE BOARD.

BACKING UPPER FLOW WILL THEN ENSUE FOR LATER SUNDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK...LIKELY BRINGING A LONG AWAITED WARMUP TO EASTERN KENTUCKY. A
SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS LOOKS TO PUSH ACROSS LOWER CANADA AND TOWARD
THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN PLAY FOR
MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK AT THIS POINT. WHILE WARMING TEMPERATURES
EACH DAY APPEAR IN THE OFFING AT THIS TIME...WILL HAVE TO WATCH
EVOLUTION/PHASING OF THESE DISTURBANCES IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
DEGREE OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THEY WILL PRODUCE IN ORDER TO BETTER
PINPOINT TEMPERATURES AND SUBSEQUENTLY TRANSITION OF PRECIPITATION
TYPE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. IN
GENERAL...THE TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
LOW CLOUDS...SNOW SHOWERS...OR BOTH. THE MORE INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS
MAY PRODUCE IFR CONDITIONS AT A GIVE AIRPORT ALONG WITH 15 TO 20
KT WIND GUSTS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE WEST AT 5 TO
12KTS WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 15 KTS OUTSIDE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS. THE
SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AROUND BY 18Z TODAY. THE LAST REMAINING SNOW
SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA AROUND THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GUSEMAN
AVIATION...AR





000
FXUS63 KJKL 100800
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
300 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

THE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH OUT THE DAY TODAY AND
THE FRIGIDLY COLD TEMPERATURES WE WILL BE EXPERIENCING ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AS A LARGE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS
THE UPPER LOW FINALLY PULLS SLOWLY OFF TO OUR EAST AND HEADS INTO
NEW ENGLAND. THE LAST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA BY
AROUND 5Z TONIGHT. DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS...NO WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TODAY. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART...WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS...LIKELY
ON THE ORDER OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH IN MOST
INSTANCES. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE LEFT IN PLACE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS AND THE SLICK ROAD
CONDITIONS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES THEY WILL CREATE FROM TIME TO
TIME THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.

DUE THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WE HAVE IN PLACE...AND CONTINUED
COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS...TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY ONLY BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 20S AROUND THE
AREA. THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...AS THE
MERCURY IS EXPECTED TO DIP TO AROUND 10 DEGREES AROUND THE AREA.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER...AS CLOUD COVER BECOMES
SCATTERED AND WE FINALLY GETS SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW SPOTS SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND
HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDOR PERHAPS MAXING OUT AROUND 30 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

AN EXTENDED DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. IN
GENERAL...THE TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
LOW CLOUDS...SNOW SHOWERS...OR BOTH. THE MORE INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS
MAY PRODUCE IFR CONDITIONS AT A GIVE AIRPORT ALONG WITH 15 TO 20
KT WIND GUSTS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE WEST AT 5 TO
12KTS WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 15 KTS OUTSIDE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS. THE
SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AROUND BY 18Z TODAY. THE LAST REMAINING SNOW
SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA AROUND THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GUSEMAN
AVIATION...AR





000
FXUS63 KJKL 100533
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1233 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 822 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS
AND RADAR TRENDS. YET ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN NW
FLOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. CONTINUED COLD AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD SERVE TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES A BIT MORE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS DESPITE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THIS SHOULD LEAD
TO AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SNOW SHOWERS IN
SEVERAL AREAS AND EVIDENCE OF THIS APPEARS TO BE ON RADAR WITH
HIGHER RETURNS NOW SHOWING UP ALONG AND WEST OF THE ESCARPMENT IN
PORTIONS OF THE NW COUNTIES. WINDS THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD
AVERAGE A BIT MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 5 TO 8
HOURS...AND SHOULD ALSO SUPPORT CONTINUE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
AND THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE NOTED ABOVE AS
WELL. POPS WERE ADJUSTED A BIT TO INDICATE THIS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
AND THE PREVIOUSLY FORECAST MIN TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TARGET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

WATER VAPOR AND MESOANALYSIS STILL DEPICTING A DEEP AND BROAD
AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS IS
LEADING TO SNOW SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN SNOW SQUALLS AT TIMES.
GIVEN THIS GENERAL FLOW AND THE OPEN GREAT LAKE WATERS SOME OF OUR
MOISTURE IS COMING OFF THE LAKES. MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT...BUT OF FEW OF THESE SHOWERS COULD BE MODERATE TO
EVEN HEAVY AT TIMES. THIS WILL STILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS AND REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY. OVERALL GIVEN THIS
WILL OPT TO LEAVE OUR CURRENT ADVISORY AS IS.

THE OTHER STORY WILL BE THE CONTINUAL COLD AIR ADVECTION
OVERTIME...WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MID TEENS
OVERNIGHT. BASED ON THE SOUNDINGS WE COULD SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS
AT TIMES WITH DECENT MIXING...SO DID KEEP SOME GUSTY WINDS AT
TIMES TONIGHT. NOW FOR WEDNESDAY THIS BROAD LOW WILL BEGIN TO EXIT
EAST AND THIS WILL AID IN WAINING THE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY
FROM SW TO NE. THE CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO BEGIN EXITING THE REGION IN
THE SAME FASHION...TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW 20S AND EVEN TEENS IN SOME OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THE POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING SKIES COULD LEAD TO A VERY
COLD NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
CLEARING IN THE SW DUE TO ANOTHER WAVE. THERE REMAINS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK AND IF WE GET ANY CHANCE OF
PRECIP IN THAT AREA...RIGHT NOW KEEPING IT DRY. EITHER WAY RIGHT
NOW TEMPS LOOK TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 455 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AT LEAST THROUGH THE START
OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THEY ALL DEPICT ONE DEEP NORTHEASTERN
TROUGH REPLACED BY ANOTHER. THE AGREEMENT DOES BREAK DOWN INTO
SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE GFS SLIGHTLY DEEPER WITH THE DEPARTING
EASTERN TROUGH WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER...BUT ALSO WEAKER. FOR
KENTUCKY...BENIGN NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY WITH EVEN
SOME RIDGING AT MID LEVELS LATE IN THE DAY. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS
BACKED OFF ITS EARLIER IDEA OF A MODERATELY STRONG TROUGH PLOWING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT IN FAVOR OF A SLOWER VERSION
BUILDING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...MORE IN LINE WITH...BUT SLOWER
AND STRONGER...THE GFS. THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS PATTERN INTO TUESDAY AS IT DIGS ITS WAVE DOWN
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IN TANDEM WITH A STRONG ONE ALONG THE
GULF COAST. THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE ECMWF IS SUGGESTING A MORE
DYNAMIC SITUATION THAN THE GFS AND ITS FLATTER TROUGH. IN
GENERAL...WILL FAVOR A MODEL BLEND THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE MORE AMPLIFIED ECMWF FOR THE START
OF THE NEW WEEK.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A MODERATING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
PASSING OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY ON THURSDAY WITH A WEAK SFC WAVE
MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY MAKING ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FOR OUR AREA FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
COLDER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THIS SETTING THE STAGE FOR A
VERY CHILLY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL
MOVE INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER THAT DAY WITH SNOW
SHOWERS A POSSIBILITY FOR KENTUCKY THAT NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.
GOING MORE ALONG WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION...A MORE ROBUST SFC WAVE
WILL PASS THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...PERHAPS STRENGTHENING
ALONG THE GULF COAST...ON MONDAY. IN THIS SCENARIO...ACCUMULATING
SNOW...POSSIBLY RATHER WET...WILL BE A CONCERN. THE GFS...BY
CONTRAST...MOVES THE SFC REFLECTION OF ITS WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH
THROUGH KENTUCKY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A LESSER CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW. GIVEN THE LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES AT THESE
LATTER TIME STEPS CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER THAN AVERAGE...BUT ONE
THING IS CERTAIN -- THE GROUND HOG WAS WRONG.

ADJUSTED THE GRIDS FROM THE CR INIT TO ACCOUNT FOR SMALL RIDGE TO
VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES EACH NIGHT. ALSO TWEAKED THE POP
GRIDS LATER IN THE PERIOD TO REFLECT A FORECAST CLOSER TO THE
LATEST AND MORE EXTREME ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. IN
GENERAL...THE TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
LOW CLOUDS...SNOW SHOWERS...OR BOTH. THE MORE INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS
MAY PRODUCE IFR CONDITIONS AT A GIVE AIRPORT ALONG WITH 15 TO 20
KT WIND GUSTS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE WEST AT 5 TO
12KTS WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 15 KTS OUTSIDE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS. THE
SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AROUND BY 18Z TODAY. THE LAST REMAINING SNOW
SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA AROUND THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...AR





000
FXUS63 KJKL 100533
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1233 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 822 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS
AND RADAR TRENDS. YET ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN NW
FLOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. CONTINUED COLD AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD SERVE TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES A BIT MORE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS DESPITE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THIS SHOULD LEAD
TO AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SNOW SHOWERS IN
SEVERAL AREAS AND EVIDENCE OF THIS APPEARS TO BE ON RADAR WITH
HIGHER RETURNS NOW SHOWING UP ALONG AND WEST OF THE ESCARPMENT IN
PORTIONS OF THE NW COUNTIES. WINDS THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD
AVERAGE A BIT MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 5 TO 8
HOURS...AND SHOULD ALSO SUPPORT CONTINUE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
AND THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE NOTED ABOVE AS
WELL. POPS WERE ADJUSTED A BIT TO INDICATE THIS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
AND THE PREVIOUSLY FORECAST MIN TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TARGET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

WATER VAPOR AND MESOANALYSIS STILL DEPICTING A DEEP AND BROAD
AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS IS
LEADING TO SNOW SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN SNOW SQUALLS AT TIMES.
GIVEN THIS GENERAL FLOW AND THE OPEN GREAT LAKE WATERS SOME OF OUR
MOISTURE IS COMING OFF THE LAKES. MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT...BUT OF FEW OF THESE SHOWERS COULD BE MODERATE TO
EVEN HEAVY AT TIMES. THIS WILL STILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS AND REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY. OVERALL GIVEN THIS
WILL OPT TO LEAVE OUR CURRENT ADVISORY AS IS.

THE OTHER STORY WILL BE THE CONTINUAL COLD AIR ADVECTION
OVERTIME...WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MID TEENS
OVERNIGHT. BASED ON THE SOUNDINGS WE COULD SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS
AT TIMES WITH DECENT MIXING...SO DID KEEP SOME GUSTY WINDS AT
TIMES TONIGHT. NOW FOR WEDNESDAY THIS BROAD LOW WILL BEGIN TO EXIT
EAST AND THIS WILL AID IN WAINING THE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY
FROM SW TO NE. THE CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO BEGIN EXITING THE REGION IN
THE SAME FASHION...TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW 20S AND EVEN TEENS IN SOME OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THE POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING SKIES COULD LEAD TO A VERY
COLD NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
CLEARING IN THE SW DUE TO ANOTHER WAVE. THERE REMAINS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK AND IF WE GET ANY CHANCE OF
PRECIP IN THAT AREA...RIGHT NOW KEEPING IT DRY. EITHER WAY RIGHT
NOW TEMPS LOOK TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 455 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AT LEAST THROUGH THE START
OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THEY ALL DEPICT ONE DEEP NORTHEASTERN
TROUGH REPLACED BY ANOTHER. THE AGREEMENT DOES BREAK DOWN INTO
SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE GFS SLIGHTLY DEEPER WITH THE DEPARTING
EASTERN TROUGH WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER...BUT ALSO WEAKER. FOR
KENTUCKY...BENIGN NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY WITH EVEN
SOME RIDGING AT MID LEVELS LATE IN THE DAY. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS
BACKED OFF ITS EARLIER IDEA OF A MODERATELY STRONG TROUGH PLOWING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT IN FAVOR OF A SLOWER VERSION
BUILDING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...MORE IN LINE WITH...BUT SLOWER
AND STRONGER...THE GFS. THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS PATTERN INTO TUESDAY AS IT DIGS ITS WAVE DOWN
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IN TANDEM WITH A STRONG ONE ALONG THE
GULF COAST. THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE ECMWF IS SUGGESTING A MORE
DYNAMIC SITUATION THAN THE GFS AND ITS FLATTER TROUGH. IN
GENERAL...WILL FAVOR A MODEL BLEND THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE MORE AMPLIFIED ECMWF FOR THE START
OF THE NEW WEEK.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A MODERATING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
PASSING OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY ON THURSDAY WITH A WEAK SFC WAVE
MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY MAKING ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FOR OUR AREA FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
COLDER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THIS SETTING THE STAGE FOR A
VERY CHILLY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL
MOVE INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER THAT DAY WITH SNOW
SHOWERS A POSSIBILITY FOR KENTUCKY THAT NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.
GOING MORE ALONG WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION...A MORE ROBUST SFC WAVE
WILL PASS THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...PERHAPS STRENGTHENING
ALONG THE GULF COAST...ON MONDAY. IN THIS SCENARIO...ACCUMULATING
SNOW...POSSIBLY RATHER WET...WILL BE A CONCERN. THE GFS...BY
CONTRAST...MOVES THE SFC REFLECTION OF ITS WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH
THROUGH KENTUCKY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A LESSER CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW. GIVEN THE LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES AT THESE
LATTER TIME STEPS CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER THAN AVERAGE...BUT ONE
THING IS CERTAIN -- THE GROUND HOG WAS WRONG.

ADJUSTED THE GRIDS FROM THE CR INIT TO ACCOUNT FOR SMALL RIDGE TO
VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES EACH NIGHT. ALSO TWEAKED THE POP
GRIDS LATER IN THE PERIOD TO REFLECT A FORECAST CLOSER TO THE
LATEST AND MORE EXTREME ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. IN
GENERAL...THE TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
LOW CLOUDS...SNOW SHOWERS...OR BOTH. THE MORE INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS
MAY PRODUCE IFR CONDITIONS AT A GIVE AIRPORT ALONG WITH 15 TO 20
KT WIND GUSTS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE WEST AT 5 TO
12KTS WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 15 KTS OUTSIDE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS. THE
SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AROUND BY 18Z TODAY. THE LAST REMAINING SNOW
SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA AROUND THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...AR





000
FXUS63 KJKL 100129 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
829 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 822 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS
AND RADAR TRENDS. YET ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN NW
FLOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. CONTINUED COLD AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD SERVE TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES A BIT MORE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS DESPITE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THIS SHOULD LEAD
TO AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SNOW SHOWERS IN
SEVERAL AREAS AND EVIDENCE OF THIS APPEARS TO BE ON RADAR WITH
HIGHER RETURNS NOW SHOWING UP ALONG AND WEST OF THE ESCARPMENT IN
PORTIONS OF THE NW COUNTIES. WINDS THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD
AVERAGE A BIT MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 5 TO 8
HOURS...AND SHOULD ALSO SUPPORT CONTINUE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
AND THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE NOTED ABOVE AS
WELL. POPS WERE ADJUSTED A BIT TO INDICATE THIS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
AND THE PREVIOUSLY FORECAST MIN TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TARGET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

WATER VAPOR AND MESOANALYSIS STILL DEPICTING A DEEP AND BROAD
AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS IS
LEADING TO SNOW SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN SNOW SQUALLS AT TIMES.
GIVEN THIS GENERAL FLOW AND THE OPEN GREAT LAKE WATERS SOME OF OUR
MOISTURE IS COMING OFF THE LAKES. MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT...BUT OF FEW OF THESE SHOWERS COULD BE MODERATE TO
EVEN HEAVY AT TIMES. THIS WILL STILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS AND REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY. OVERALL GIVEN THIS
WILL OPT TO LEAVE OUR CURRENT ADVISORY AS IS.

THE OTHER STORY WILL BE THE CONTINUAL COLD AIR ADVECTION
OVERTIME...WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MID TEENS
OVERNIGHT. BASED ON THE SOUNDINGS WE COULD SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS
AT TIMES WITH DECENT MIXING...SO DID KEEP SOME GUSTY WINDS AT
TIMES TONIGHT. NOW FOR WEDNESDAY THIS BROAD LOW WILL BEGIN TO EXIT
EAST AND THIS WILL AID IN WAINING THE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY
FROM SW TO NE. THE CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO BEGIN EXITING THE REGION IN
THE SAME FASHION...TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW 20S AND EVEN TEENS IN SOME OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THE POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING SKIES COULD LEAD TO A VERY
COLD NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
CLEARING IN THE SW DUE TO ANOTHER WAVE. THERE REMAINS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK AND IF WE GET ANY CHANCE OF
PRECIP IN THAT AREA...RIGHT NOW KEEPING IT DRY. EITHER WAY RIGHT
NOW TEMPS LOOK TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 455 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AT LEAST THROUGH THE START
OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THEY ALL DEPICT ONE DEEP NORTHEASTERN
TROUGH REPLACED BY ANOTHER. THE AGREEMENT DOES BREAK DOWN INTO
SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE GFS SLIGHTLY DEEPER WITH THE DEPARTING
EASTERN TROUGH WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER...BUT ALSO WEAKER. FOR
KENTUCKY...BENIGN NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY WITH EVEN
SOME RIDGING AT MID LEVELS LATE IN THE DAY. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS
BACKED OFF ITS EARLIER IDEA OF A MODERATELY STRONG TROUGH PLOWING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT IN FAVOR OF A SLOWER VERSION
BUILDING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...MORE IN LINE WITH...BUT SLOWER
AND STRONGER...THE GFS. THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS PATTERN INTO TUESDAY AS IT DIGS ITS WAVE DOWN
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IN TANDEM WITH A STRONG ONE ALONG THE
GULF COAST. THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE ECMWF IS SUGGESTING A MORE
DYNAMIC SITUATION THAN THE GFS AND ITS FLATTER TROUGH. IN
GENERAL...WILL FAVOR A MODEL BLEND THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE MORE AMPLIFIED ECMWF FOR THE START
OF THE NEW WEEK.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A MODERATING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
PASSING OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY ON THURSDAY WITH A WEAK SFC WAVE
MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY MAKING ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FOR OUR AREA FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
COLDER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THIS SETTING THE STAGE FOR A
VERY CHILLY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL
MOVE INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER THAT DAY WITH SNOW
SHOWERS A POSSIBILITY FOR KENTUCKY THAT NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.
GOING MORE ALONG WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION...A MORE ROBUST SFC WAVE
WILL PASS THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...PERHAPS STRENGTHENING
ALONG THE GULF COAST...ON MONDAY. IN THIS SCENARIO...ACCUMULATING
SNOW...POSSIBLY RATHER WET...WILL BE A CONCERN. THE GFS...BY
CONTRAST...MOVES THE SFC REFLECTION OF ITS WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH
THROUGH KENTUCKY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A LESSER CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW. GIVEN THE LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES AT THESE
LATTER TIME STEPS CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER THAN AVERAGE...BUT ONE
THING IS CERTAIN -- THE GROUND HOG WAS WRONG.

ADJUSTED THE GRIDS FROM THE CR INIT TO ACCOUNT FOR SMALL RIDGE TO
VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES EACH NIGHT. ALSO TWEAKED THE POP
GRIDS LATER IN THE PERIOD TO REFLECT A FORECAST CLOSER TO THE
LATEST AND MORE EXTREME ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 739 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL OCCURRING THIS
EVENING AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 12 TO 15
HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE HEAVIEST OF THESE ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
9Z. MOST SITES WILL AVERAGE THE LOWER END OF THE VFR RANGE TO MVFR
WITH IFR CONDITIONS FROM TIME TO TIME IN ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.
DURING THE FINAL 12 HOURS OF THE PERIOD...SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND EXIT FROM WEST TO EAST.
WINDS WILL AVERAGE OUT OF THE WEST AT 10KT OR LESS...ALTHOUGH
GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JP





000
FXUS63 KJKL 100129 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
829 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 822 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS
AND RADAR TRENDS. YET ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN NW
FLOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. CONTINUED COLD AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD SERVE TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES A BIT MORE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS DESPITE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THIS SHOULD LEAD
TO AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SNOW SHOWERS IN
SEVERAL AREAS AND EVIDENCE OF THIS APPEARS TO BE ON RADAR WITH
HIGHER RETURNS NOW SHOWING UP ALONG AND WEST OF THE ESCARPMENT IN
PORTIONS OF THE NW COUNTIES. WINDS THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD
AVERAGE A BIT MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 5 TO 8
HOURS...AND SHOULD ALSO SUPPORT CONTINUE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
AND THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE NOTED ABOVE AS
WELL. POPS WERE ADJUSTED A BIT TO INDICATE THIS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
AND THE PREVIOUSLY FORECAST MIN TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TARGET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

WATER VAPOR AND MESOANALYSIS STILL DEPICTING A DEEP AND BROAD
AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS IS
LEADING TO SNOW SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN SNOW SQUALLS AT TIMES.
GIVEN THIS GENERAL FLOW AND THE OPEN GREAT LAKE WATERS SOME OF OUR
MOISTURE IS COMING OFF THE LAKES. MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT...BUT OF FEW OF THESE SHOWERS COULD BE MODERATE TO
EVEN HEAVY AT TIMES. THIS WILL STILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS AND REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY. OVERALL GIVEN THIS
WILL OPT TO LEAVE OUR CURRENT ADVISORY AS IS.

THE OTHER STORY WILL BE THE CONTINUAL COLD AIR ADVECTION
OVERTIME...WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MID TEENS
OVERNIGHT. BASED ON THE SOUNDINGS WE COULD SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS
AT TIMES WITH DECENT MIXING...SO DID KEEP SOME GUSTY WINDS AT
TIMES TONIGHT. NOW FOR WEDNESDAY THIS BROAD LOW WILL BEGIN TO EXIT
EAST AND THIS WILL AID IN WAINING THE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY
FROM SW TO NE. THE CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO BEGIN EXITING THE REGION IN
THE SAME FASHION...TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW 20S AND EVEN TEENS IN SOME OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THE POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING SKIES COULD LEAD TO A VERY
COLD NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
CLEARING IN THE SW DUE TO ANOTHER WAVE. THERE REMAINS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK AND IF WE GET ANY CHANCE OF
PRECIP IN THAT AREA...RIGHT NOW KEEPING IT DRY. EITHER WAY RIGHT
NOW TEMPS LOOK TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 455 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AT LEAST THROUGH THE START
OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THEY ALL DEPICT ONE DEEP NORTHEASTERN
TROUGH REPLACED BY ANOTHER. THE AGREEMENT DOES BREAK DOWN INTO
SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE GFS SLIGHTLY DEEPER WITH THE DEPARTING
EASTERN TROUGH WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER...BUT ALSO WEAKER. FOR
KENTUCKY...BENIGN NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY WITH EVEN
SOME RIDGING AT MID LEVELS LATE IN THE DAY. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS
BACKED OFF ITS EARLIER IDEA OF A MODERATELY STRONG TROUGH PLOWING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT IN FAVOR OF A SLOWER VERSION
BUILDING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...MORE IN LINE WITH...BUT SLOWER
AND STRONGER...THE GFS. THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS PATTERN INTO TUESDAY AS IT DIGS ITS WAVE DOWN
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IN TANDEM WITH A STRONG ONE ALONG THE
GULF COAST. THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE ECMWF IS SUGGESTING A MORE
DYNAMIC SITUATION THAN THE GFS AND ITS FLATTER TROUGH. IN
GENERAL...WILL FAVOR A MODEL BLEND THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE MORE AMPLIFIED ECMWF FOR THE START
OF THE NEW WEEK.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A MODERATING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
PASSING OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY ON THURSDAY WITH A WEAK SFC WAVE
MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY MAKING ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FOR OUR AREA FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
COLDER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THIS SETTING THE STAGE FOR A
VERY CHILLY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL
MOVE INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER THAT DAY WITH SNOW
SHOWERS A POSSIBILITY FOR KENTUCKY THAT NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.
GOING MORE ALONG WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION...A MORE ROBUST SFC WAVE
WILL PASS THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...PERHAPS STRENGTHENING
ALONG THE GULF COAST...ON MONDAY. IN THIS SCENARIO...ACCUMULATING
SNOW...POSSIBLY RATHER WET...WILL BE A CONCERN. THE GFS...BY
CONTRAST...MOVES THE SFC REFLECTION OF ITS WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH
THROUGH KENTUCKY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A LESSER CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW. GIVEN THE LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES AT THESE
LATTER TIME STEPS CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER THAN AVERAGE...BUT ONE
THING IS CERTAIN -- THE GROUND HOG WAS WRONG.

ADJUSTED THE GRIDS FROM THE CR INIT TO ACCOUNT FOR SMALL RIDGE TO
VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES EACH NIGHT. ALSO TWEAKED THE POP
GRIDS LATER IN THE PERIOD TO REFLECT A FORECAST CLOSER TO THE
LATEST AND MORE EXTREME ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 739 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL OCCURRING THIS
EVENING AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 12 TO 15
HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE HEAVIEST OF THESE ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
9Z. MOST SITES WILL AVERAGE THE LOWER END OF THE VFR RANGE TO MVFR
WITH IFR CONDITIONS FROM TIME TO TIME IN ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.
DURING THE FINAL 12 HOURS OF THE PERIOD...SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND EXIT FROM WEST TO EAST.
WINDS WILL AVERAGE OUT OF THE WEST AT 10KT OR LESS...ALTHOUGH
GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KJKL 100129 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
829 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 822 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS
AND RADAR TRENDS. YET ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN NW
FLOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. CONTINUED COLD AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD SERVE TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES A BIT MORE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS DESPITE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THIS SHOULD LEAD
TO AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SNOW SHOWERS IN
SEVERAL AREAS AND EVIDENCE OF THIS APPEARS TO BE ON RADAR WITH
HIGHER RETURNS NOW SHOWING UP ALONG AND WEST OF THE ESCARPMENT IN
PORTIONS OF THE NW COUNTIES. WINDS THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD
AVERAGE A BIT MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 5 TO 8
HOURS...AND SHOULD ALSO SUPPORT CONTINUE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
AND THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE NOTED ABOVE AS
WELL. POPS WERE ADJUSTED A BIT TO INDICATE THIS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
AND THE PREVIOUSLY FORECAST MIN TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TARGET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

WATER VAPOR AND MESOANALYSIS STILL DEPICTING A DEEP AND BROAD
AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS IS
LEADING TO SNOW SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN SNOW SQUALLS AT TIMES.
GIVEN THIS GENERAL FLOW AND THE OPEN GREAT LAKE WATERS SOME OF OUR
MOISTURE IS COMING OFF THE LAKES. MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT...BUT OF FEW OF THESE SHOWERS COULD BE MODERATE TO
EVEN HEAVY AT TIMES. THIS WILL STILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS AND REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY. OVERALL GIVEN THIS
WILL OPT TO LEAVE OUR CURRENT ADVISORY AS IS.

THE OTHER STORY WILL BE THE CONTINUAL COLD AIR ADVECTION
OVERTIME...WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MID TEENS
OVERNIGHT. BASED ON THE SOUNDINGS WE COULD SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS
AT TIMES WITH DECENT MIXING...SO DID KEEP SOME GUSTY WINDS AT
TIMES TONIGHT. NOW FOR WEDNESDAY THIS BROAD LOW WILL BEGIN TO EXIT
EAST AND THIS WILL AID IN WAINING THE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY
FROM SW TO NE. THE CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO BEGIN EXITING THE REGION IN
THE SAME FASHION...TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW 20S AND EVEN TEENS IN SOME OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THE POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING SKIES COULD LEAD TO A VERY
COLD NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
CLEARING IN THE SW DUE TO ANOTHER WAVE. THERE REMAINS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK AND IF WE GET ANY CHANCE OF
PRECIP IN THAT AREA...RIGHT NOW KEEPING IT DRY. EITHER WAY RIGHT
NOW TEMPS LOOK TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 455 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AT LEAST THROUGH THE START
OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THEY ALL DEPICT ONE DEEP NORTHEASTERN
TROUGH REPLACED BY ANOTHER. THE AGREEMENT DOES BREAK DOWN INTO
SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE GFS SLIGHTLY DEEPER WITH THE DEPARTING
EASTERN TROUGH WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER...BUT ALSO WEAKER. FOR
KENTUCKY...BENIGN NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY WITH EVEN
SOME RIDGING AT MID LEVELS LATE IN THE DAY. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS
BACKED OFF ITS EARLIER IDEA OF A MODERATELY STRONG TROUGH PLOWING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT IN FAVOR OF A SLOWER VERSION
BUILDING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...MORE IN LINE WITH...BUT SLOWER
AND STRONGER...THE GFS. THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS PATTERN INTO TUESDAY AS IT DIGS ITS WAVE DOWN
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IN TANDEM WITH A STRONG ONE ALONG THE
GULF COAST. THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE ECMWF IS SUGGESTING A MORE
DYNAMIC SITUATION THAN THE GFS AND ITS FLATTER TROUGH. IN
GENERAL...WILL FAVOR A MODEL BLEND THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE MORE AMPLIFIED ECMWF FOR THE START
OF THE NEW WEEK.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A MODERATING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
PASSING OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY ON THURSDAY WITH A WEAK SFC WAVE
MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY MAKING ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FOR OUR AREA FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
COLDER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THIS SETTING THE STAGE FOR A
VERY CHILLY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL
MOVE INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER THAT DAY WITH SNOW
SHOWERS A POSSIBILITY FOR KENTUCKY THAT NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.
GOING MORE ALONG WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION...A MORE ROBUST SFC WAVE
WILL PASS THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...PERHAPS STRENGTHENING
ALONG THE GULF COAST...ON MONDAY. IN THIS SCENARIO...ACCUMULATING
SNOW...POSSIBLY RATHER WET...WILL BE A CONCERN. THE GFS...BY
CONTRAST...MOVES THE SFC REFLECTION OF ITS WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH
THROUGH KENTUCKY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A LESSER CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW. GIVEN THE LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES AT THESE
LATTER TIME STEPS CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER THAN AVERAGE...BUT ONE
THING IS CERTAIN -- THE GROUND HOG WAS WRONG.

ADJUSTED THE GRIDS FROM THE CR INIT TO ACCOUNT FOR SMALL RIDGE TO
VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES EACH NIGHT. ALSO TWEAKED THE POP
GRIDS LATER IN THE PERIOD TO REFLECT A FORECAST CLOSER TO THE
LATEST AND MORE EXTREME ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 739 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL OCCURRING THIS
EVENING AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 12 TO 15
HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE HEAVIEST OF THESE ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
9Z. MOST SITES WILL AVERAGE THE LOWER END OF THE VFR RANGE TO MVFR
WITH IFR CONDITIONS FROM TIME TO TIME IN ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.
DURING THE FINAL 12 HOURS OF THE PERIOD...SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND EXIT FROM WEST TO EAST.
WINDS WILL AVERAGE OUT OF THE WEST AT 10KT OR LESS...ALTHOUGH
GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JP





000
FXUS63 KJKL 092155 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
455 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

WATER VAPOR AND MESOANALYSIS STILL DEPICTING A DEEP AND BROAD
AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS IS
LEADING TO SNOW SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN SNOW SQUALLS AT TIMES.
GIVEN THIS GENERAL FLOW AND THE OPEN GREAT LAKE WATERS SOME OF OUR
MOISTURE IS COMING OFF THE LAKES. MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT...BUT OF FEW OF THESE SHOWERS COULD BE MODERATE TO
EVEN HEAVY AT TIMES. THIS WILL STILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS AND REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY. OVERALL GIVEN THIS
WILL OPT TO LEAVE OUR CURRENT ADVISORY AS IS.

THE OTHER STORY WILL BE THE CONTINUAL COLD AIR ADVECTION
OVERTIME...WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MID TEENS
OVERNIGHT. BASED ON THE SOUNDINGS WE COULD SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS
AT TIMES WITH DECENT MIXING...SO DID KEEP SOME GUSTY WINDS AT
TIMES TONIGHT. NOW FOR WEDNESDAY THIS BROAD LOW WILL BEGIN TO EXIT
EAST AND THIS WILL AID IN WAINING THE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY
FROM SW TO NE. THE CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO BEGIN EXITING THE REGION IN
THE SAME FASHION...TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW 20S AND EVEN TEENS IN SOME OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THE POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING SKIES COULD LEAD TO A VERY
COLD NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
CLEARING IN THE SW DUE TO ANOTHER WAVE. THERE REMAINS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK AND IF WE GET ANY CHANCE OF
PRECIP IN THAT AREA...RIGHT NOW KEEPING IT DRY. EITHER WAY RIGHT
NOW TEMPS LOOK TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 455 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AT LEAST THROUGH THE START
OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THEY ALL DEPICT ONE DEEP NORTHEASTERN
TROUGH REPLACED BY ANOTHER. THE AGREEMENT DOES BREAK DOWN INTO
SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE GFS SLIGHTLY DEEPER WITH THE DEPARTING
EASTERN TROUGH WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER...BUT ALSO WEAKER. FOR
KENTUCKY...BENIGN NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY WITH EVEN
SOME RIDGING AT MID LEVELS LATE IN THE DAY. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS
BACKED OFF ITS EARLIER IDEA OF A MODERATELY STRONG TROUGH PLOWING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT IN FAVOR OF A SLOWER VERSION
BUILDING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...MORE IN LINE WITH...BUT SLOWER
AND STRONGER...THE GFS. THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS PATTERN INTO TUESDAY AS IT DIGS ITS WAVE DOWN
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IN TANDEM WITH A STRONG ONE ALONG THE
GULF COAST. THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE ECMWF IS SUGGESTING A MORE
DYNAMIC SITUATION THAN THE GFS AND ITS FLATTER TROUGH. IN
GENERAL...WILL FAVOR A MODEL BLEND THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE MORE AMPLIFIED ECMWF FOR THE START
OF THE NEW WEEK.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A MODERATING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
PASSING OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY ON THURSDAY WITH A WEAK SFC WAVE
MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY MAKING ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FOR OUR AREA FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
COLDER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THIS SETTING THE STAGE FOR A
VERY CHILLY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL
MOVE INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER THAT DAY WITH SNOW
SHOWERS A POSSIBILITY FOR KENTUCKY THAT NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.
GOING MORE ALONG WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION...A MORE ROBUST SFC WAVE
WILL PASS THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...PERHAPS STRENGTHENING
ALONG THE GULF COAST...ON MONDAY. IN THIS SCENARIO...ACCUMULATING
SNOW...POSSIBLY RATHER WET...WILL BE A CONCERN. THE GFS...BY
CONTRAST...MOVES THE SFC REFLECTION OF ITS WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH
THROUGH KENTUCKY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A LESSER CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW. GIVEN THE LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES AT THESE
LATTER TIME STEPS CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER THAN AVERAGE...BUT ONE
THING IS CERTAIN -- THE GROUND HOG WAS WRONG.

ADJUSTED THE GRIDS FROM THE CR INIT TO ACCOUNT FOR SMALL RIDGE TO
VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES EACH NIGHT. ALSO TWEAKED THE POP
GRIDS LATER IN THE PERIOD TO REFLECT A FORECAST CLOSER TO THE
LATEST AND MORE EXTREME ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL THE STORY THIS
AFTERNOON AND WSR-88D IS INDICATING SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY BE
HEAVY AT TIMES. THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS ARE VERY DIFFICULT TO
PIN DOWN AND FOR NOW USED A TEMPO GROUP TO HANDLE THIS. GENERALLY
MOST SITES WILL SEE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FROM TIME TO TIME.
OTHERWISE WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE IMPROVING TAFS IN TERMS OF
VIS...AS SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES BEGIN TO EXIT THE REGION WED
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT OUTSIDE OF
ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER/SQUALL...WHERE WINDS COULD BRIEFLY GUST
15 TO 20 KTS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...DJ




000
FXUS63 KJKL 092155 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
455 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

WATER VAPOR AND MESOANALYSIS STILL DEPICTING A DEEP AND BROAD
AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS IS
LEADING TO SNOW SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN SNOW SQUALLS AT TIMES.
GIVEN THIS GENERAL FLOW AND THE OPEN GREAT LAKE WATERS SOME OF OUR
MOISTURE IS COMING OFF THE LAKES. MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT...BUT OF FEW OF THESE SHOWERS COULD BE MODERATE TO
EVEN HEAVY AT TIMES. THIS WILL STILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS AND REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY. OVERALL GIVEN THIS
WILL OPT TO LEAVE OUR CURRENT ADVISORY AS IS.

THE OTHER STORY WILL BE THE CONTINUAL COLD AIR ADVECTION
OVERTIME...WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MID TEENS
OVERNIGHT. BASED ON THE SOUNDINGS WE COULD SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS
AT TIMES WITH DECENT MIXING...SO DID KEEP SOME GUSTY WINDS AT
TIMES TONIGHT. NOW FOR WEDNESDAY THIS BROAD LOW WILL BEGIN TO EXIT
EAST AND THIS WILL AID IN WAINING THE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY
FROM SW TO NE. THE CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO BEGIN EXITING THE REGION IN
THE SAME FASHION...TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW 20S AND EVEN TEENS IN SOME OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THE POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING SKIES COULD LEAD TO A VERY
COLD NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
CLEARING IN THE SW DUE TO ANOTHER WAVE. THERE REMAINS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK AND IF WE GET ANY CHANCE OF
PRECIP IN THAT AREA...RIGHT NOW KEEPING IT DRY. EITHER WAY RIGHT
NOW TEMPS LOOK TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 455 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AT LEAST THROUGH THE START
OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THEY ALL DEPICT ONE DEEP NORTHEASTERN
TROUGH REPLACED BY ANOTHER. THE AGREEMENT DOES BREAK DOWN INTO
SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE GFS SLIGHTLY DEEPER WITH THE DEPARTING
EASTERN TROUGH WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER...BUT ALSO WEAKER. FOR
KENTUCKY...BENIGN NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY WITH EVEN
SOME RIDGING AT MID LEVELS LATE IN THE DAY. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS
BACKED OFF ITS EARLIER IDEA OF A MODERATELY STRONG TROUGH PLOWING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT IN FAVOR OF A SLOWER VERSION
BUILDING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...MORE IN LINE WITH...BUT SLOWER
AND STRONGER...THE GFS. THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS PATTERN INTO TUESDAY AS IT DIGS ITS WAVE DOWN
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IN TANDEM WITH A STRONG ONE ALONG THE
GULF COAST. THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE ECMWF IS SUGGESTING A MORE
DYNAMIC SITUATION THAN THE GFS AND ITS FLATTER TROUGH. IN
GENERAL...WILL FAVOR A MODEL BLEND THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE MORE AMPLIFIED ECMWF FOR THE START
OF THE NEW WEEK.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A MODERATING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
PASSING OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY ON THURSDAY WITH A WEAK SFC WAVE
MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY MAKING ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FOR OUR AREA FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
COLDER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THIS SETTING THE STAGE FOR A
VERY CHILLY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL
MOVE INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER THAT DAY WITH SNOW
SHOWERS A POSSIBILITY FOR KENTUCKY THAT NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.
GOING MORE ALONG WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION...A MORE ROBUST SFC WAVE
WILL PASS THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...PERHAPS STRENGTHENING
ALONG THE GULF COAST...ON MONDAY. IN THIS SCENARIO...ACCUMULATING
SNOW...POSSIBLY RATHER WET...WILL BE A CONCERN. THE GFS...BY
CONTRAST...MOVES THE SFC REFLECTION OF ITS WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH
THROUGH KENTUCKY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A LESSER CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW. GIVEN THE LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES AT THESE
LATTER TIME STEPS CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER THAN AVERAGE...BUT ONE
THING IS CERTAIN -- THE GROUND HOG WAS WRONG.

ADJUSTED THE GRIDS FROM THE CR INIT TO ACCOUNT FOR SMALL RIDGE TO
VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES EACH NIGHT. ALSO TWEAKED THE POP
GRIDS LATER IN THE PERIOD TO REFLECT A FORECAST CLOSER TO THE
LATEST AND MORE EXTREME ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL THE STORY THIS
AFTERNOON AND WSR-88D IS INDICATING SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY BE
HEAVY AT TIMES. THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS ARE VERY DIFFICULT TO
PIN DOWN AND FOR NOW USED A TEMPO GROUP TO HANDLE THIS. GENERALLY
MOST SITES WILL SEE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FROM TIME TO TIME.
OTHERWISE WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE IMPROVING TAFS IN TERMS OF
VIS...AS SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES BEGIN TO EXIT THE REGION WED
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT OUTSIDE OF
ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER/SQUALL...WHERE WINDS COULD BRIEFLY GUST
15 TO 20 KTS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...DJ





000
FXUS63 KJKL 092030
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
330 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

WATER VAPOR AND MESOANALYSIS STILL DEPICTING A DEEP AND BROAD
AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS IS
LEADING TO SNOW SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN SNOW SQUALLS AT TIMES.
GIVEN THIS GENERAL FLOW AND THE OPEN GREAT LAKE WATERS SOME OF OUR
MOISTURE IS COMING OFF THE LAKES. MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT...BUT OF FEW OF THESE SHOWERS COULD BE MODERATE TO
EVEN HEAVY AT TIMES. THIS WILL STILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS AND REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY. OVERALL GIVEN THIS
WILL OPT TO LEAVE OUR CURRENT ADVISORY AS IS.

THE OTHER STORY WILL BE THE CONTINUAL COLD AIR ADVECTION
OVERTIME...WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MID TEENS
OVERNIGHT. BASED ON THE SOUNDINGS WE COULD SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS
AT TIMES WITH DECENT MIXING...SO DID KEEP SOME GUSTY WINDS AT
TIMES TONIGHT. NOW FOR WEDNESDAY THIS BROAD LOW WILL BEGIN TO EXIT
EAST AND THIS WILL AID IN WAINING THE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY
FROM SW TO NE. THE CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO BEGIN EXITING THE REGION IN
THE SAME FASHION...TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW 20S AND EVEN TEENS IN SOME OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THE POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING SKIES COULD LEAD TO A VERY
COLD NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
CLEARING IN THE SW DUE TO ANOTHER WAVE. THERE REMAINS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK AND IF WE GET ANY CHANCE OF
PRECIP IN THAT AREA...RIGHT NOW KEEPING IT DRY. EITHER WAY RIGHT
NOW TEMPS LOOK TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

AVAILABLE SHORTLY...

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL THE STORY THIS
AFTERNOON AND WSR-88D IS INDICATING SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY BE
HEAVY AT TIMES. THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS ARE VERY DIFFICULT TO
PIN DOWN AND FOR NOW USED A TEMPO GROUP TO HANDLE THIS. GENERALLY
MOST SITES WILL SEE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FROM TIME TO TIME.
OTHERWISE WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE IMPROVING TAFS IN TERMS OF
VIS...AS SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES BEGIN TO EXIT THE REGION WED
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT OUTSIDE OF
ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER/SQUALL...WHERE WINDS COULD BRIEFLY GUST
15 TO 20 KTS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...DJ





000
FXUS63 KJKL 091750
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1250 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

WSR-88D RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SCATTERED MODERATE TO LIGHT
SNOW MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WILL CAUSE QUICK REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AND
A QUICK COATING OF SNOW. DID OPT TO INCREASE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A BIT MORE LIFT AND DECENT LAPSE RATES.
OTHERWISE JUST SOME MINOR UPDATES TO DEAL WITH OBS AND TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACTIVE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT THAT
IS CURRENTLY SPINNING IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL MOISTURE OFF OF
LAKE MICHIGAN DOWN THROUGH THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THIS MOIST AIR
INTERACTS WITH OUR ROUGH TERRAIN...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE VIRGINIA
BORDER...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE. THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHORT BUT INTENSE
BURSTS OF SNOW THAT WILL QUICKLY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO
AND SLICK SNOW COVERED ROADS. HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
BECAUSE OF THIS...WE DECIDED TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR OUR WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES THROUGH 10 AM ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 20S TODAY FOR ALL BUT A
FEW LOCATIONS...AND WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 20S
ON WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

ENTRENCHED CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL PERSIST
FROM MIDWEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND THANKS TO RENEWED SPOUTS OF ARCTIC
AIR SPILLING THROUGH HUDSON BAY INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. NEGATIVE
PHASE OF THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION WILL ALLOW FOR THESE MULTIPLE COLD
INTRUSIONS TO MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY...KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE UNTIL PERHAPS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

ISOLATED/SCATTERED UPSLOPE-INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST
TO EAST WEDNESDAY EVENING IN WAKE OF A DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS AS
SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD AND INTO THE REGION. NWP CONTINUING
TO HINT AT A WEAK LAGGING BAND OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES BEHIND THIS
FEATURE WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT SHOULD SEE ANY DEVELOPMENT
REMAIN NEAR AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 71 CORRIDOR IF THIS SHALLOW
LIFT IS EVEN ENOUGH TO GENERATE ANY SEMBLANCE OF SNOW ALONG A
COLD FRONT.

AFTER TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 30S FRIDAY AS A PORTION OF THE COLD
DOME DISLODGES EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS...ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE
REMAINS ON TAP FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THUS LEADING TO HIGH TEMPERATURES
BACK IN THE 20S SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY SINGLE DIGIT LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING UNDERNEATH CLEARING SKIES. THE PARENT TROUGH OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW FOR MUCH OF EAST KENTUCKY LATER
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH A LITTLE RAIN
NEARER THE TENNESSEE BORDER PENDING ON HOW MUCH COLD AIR CAN BE
SHUNTED EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD THEN SPELL A DRY SECOND HALF OF SATURDAY
AND MOST OF SUNDAY...BEFORE A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL
BEGIN AS SNOW WITH A TRANSITION TO LIQUID ONCE AGAIN DEPENDENT ON
HOW QUICKLY ANY WARMER AIR CAN FILTER NORTH. ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM
SHOWS HINTS OF CONTINUING BEYOND THIS WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LINGERING TOWARD MIDWEEK. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR REGENERATION OF
HUDSON BAY LOW REGARDING TEMPERATURE MODIFICATION THROUGH THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL THE STORY THIS
AFTERNOON AND WSR-88D IS INDICATING SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY BE
HEAVY AT TIMES. THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS ARE VERY DIFFICULT TO
PIN DOWN AND FOR NOW USED A TEMPO GROUP TO HANDLE THIS. GENERALLY
MOST SITES WILL SEE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FROM TIME TO TIME.
OTHERWISE WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE IMPROVING TAFS IN TERMS OF
VIS...AS SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES BEGIN TO EXIT THE REGION WED
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT OUTSIDE OF
ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER/SQUALL...WHERE WINDS COULD BRIEFLY GUST
15 TO 20 KTS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GUSEMAN
AVIATION...DJ





000
FXUS63 KJKL 091527
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1027 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

WSR-88D RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SCATTERED MODERATE TO LIGHT
SNOW MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WILL CAUSE QUICK REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AND
A QUICK COATING OF SNOW. DID OPT TO INCREASE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A BIT MORE LIFT AND DECENT LAPSE RATES.
OTHERWISE JUST SOME MINOR UPDATES TO DEAL WITH OBS AND TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACTIVE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT THAT
IS CURRENTLY SPINNING IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL MOISTURE OFF OF
LAKE MICHIGAN DOWN THROUGH THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THIS MOIST AIR
INTERACTS WITH OUR ROUGH TERRAIN...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE VIRGINIA
BORDER...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE. THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHORT BUT INTENSE
BURSTS OF SNOW THAT WILL QUICKLY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO
AND SLICK SNOW COVERED ROADS. HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
BECAUSE OF THIS...WE DECIDED TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR OUR WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES THROUGH 10 AM ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 20S TODAY FOR ALL BUT A
FEW LOCATIONS...AND WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 20S
ON WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

ENTRENCHED CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL PERSIST
FROM MIDWEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND THANKS TO RENEWED SPOUTS OF ARCTIC
AIR SPILLING THROUGH HUDSON BAY INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. NEGATIVE
PHASE OF THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION WILL ALLOW FOR THESE MULTIPLE COLD
INTRUSIONS TO MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY...KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE UNTIL PERHAPS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

ISOLATED/SCATTERED UPSLOPE-INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST
TO EAST WEDNESDAY EVENING IN WAKE OF A DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS AS
SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD AND INTO THE REGION. NWP CONTINUING
TO HINT AT A WEAK LAGGING BAND OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES BEHIND THIS
FEATURE WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT SHOULD SEE ANY DEVELOPMENT
REMAIN NEAR AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 71 CORRIDOR IF THIS SHALLOW
LIFT IS EVEN ENOUGH TO GENERATE ANY SEMBLANCE OF SNOW ALONG A
COLD FRONT.

AFTER TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 30S FRIDAY AS A PORTION OF THE COLD
DOME DISLODGES EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS...ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE
REMAINS ON TAP FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THUS LEADING TO HIGH TEMPERATURES
BACK IN THE 20S SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY SINGLE DIGIT LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING UNDERNEATH CLEARING SKIES. THE PARENT TROUGH OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW FOR MUCH OF EAST KENTUCKY LATER
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH A LITTLE RAIN
NEARER THE TENNESSEE BORDER PENDING ON HOW MUCH COLD AIR CAN BE
SHUNTED EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD THEN SPELL A DRY SECOND HALF OF SATURDAY
AND MOST OF SUNDAY...BEFORE A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL
BEGIN AS SNOW WITH A TRANSITION TO LIQUID ONCE AGAIN DEPENDENT ON
HOW QUICKLY ANY WARMER AIR CAN FILTER NORTH. ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM
SHOWS HINTS OF CONTINUING BEYOND THIS WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LINGERING TOWARD MIDWEEK. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR REGENERATION OF
HUDSON BAY LOW REGARDING TEMPERATURE MODIFICATION THROUGH THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE QUITE
INTENSE AND COULD PRODUCE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES. LOW
CIGS AND BLOWING SNOW WILL BE THE HAZARDS OF NOTE AT THE TAF SITES
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GUSEMAN
AVIATION...AR





000
FXUS63 KJKL 091135
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
635 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACTIVE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT THAT
IS CURRENTLY SPINNING IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL MOISTURE OFF OF
LAKE MICHIGAN DOWN THROUGH THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THIS MOIST AIR
INTERACTS WITH OUR ROUGH TERRAIN...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE VIRGINIA
BORDER...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE. THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHORT BUT INTENSE
BURSTS OF SNOW THAT WILL QUICKLY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO
AND SLICK SNOW COVERED ROADS. HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
BECAUSE OF THIS...WE DECIDED TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR OUR WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES THROUGH 10 AM ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 20S TODAY FOR ALL BUT A
FEW LOCATIONS...AND WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 20S
ON WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

ENTRENCHED CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL PERSIST
FROM MIDWEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND THANKS TO RENEWED SPOUTS OF ARCTIC
AIR SPILLING THROUGH HUDSON BAY INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. NEGATIVE
PHASE OF THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION WILL ALLOW FOR THESE MULTIPLE COLD
INTRUSIONS TO MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY...KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE UNTIL PERHAPS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

ISOLATED/SCATTERED UPSLOPE-INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST
TO EAST WEDNESDAY EVENING IN WAKE OF A DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS AS
SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD AND INTO THE REGION. NWP CONTINUING
TO HINT AT A WEAK LAGGING BAND OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES BEHIND THIS
FEATURE WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT SHOULD SEE ANY DEVELOPMENT
REMAIN NEAR AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 71 CORRIDOR IF THIS SHALLOW
LIFT IS EVEN ENOUGH TO GENERATE ANY SEMBLANCE OF SNOW ALONG A
COLD FRONT.

AFTER TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 30S FRIDAY AS A PORTION OF THE COLD
DOME DISLODGES EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS...ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE
REMAINS ON TAP FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THUS LEADING TO HIGH TEMPERATURES
BACK IN THE 20S SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY SINGLE DIGIT LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING UNDERNEATH CLEARING SKIES. THE PARENT TROUGH OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW FOR MUCH OF EAST KENTUCKY LATER
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH A LITTLE RAIN
NEARER THE TENNESSEE BORDER PENDING ON HOW MUCH COLD AIR CAN BE
SHUNTED EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD THEN SPELL A DRY SECOND HALF OF SATURDAY
AND MOST OF SUNDAY...BEFORE A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL
BEGIN AS SNOW WITH A TRANSITION TO LIQUID ONCE AGAIN DEPENDENT ON
HOW QUICKLY ANY WARMER AIR CAN FILTER NORTH. ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM
SHOWS HINTS OF CONTINUING BEYOND THIS WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LINGERING TOWARD MIDWEEK. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR REGENERATION OF
HUDSON BAY LOW REGARDING TEMPERATURE MODIFICATION THROUGH THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE QUITE
INTENSE AND COULD PRODUCE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES. LOW
CIGS AND BLOWING SNOW WILL BE THE HAZARDS OF NOTE AT THE TAF SITES
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GUSEMAN
AVIATION...AR




000
FXUS63 KJKL 091135
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
635 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACTIVE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT THAT
IS CURRENTLY SPINNING IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL MOISTURE OFF OF
LAKE MICHIGAN DOWN THROUGH THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THIS MOIST AIR
INTERACTS WITH OUR ROUGH TERRAIN...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE VIRGINIA
BORDER...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE. THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHORT BUT INTENSE
BURSTS OF SNOW THAT WILL QUICKLY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO
AND SLICK SNOW COVERED ROADS. HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
BECAUSE OF THIS...WE DECIDED TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR OUR WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES THROUGH 10 AM ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 20S TODAY FOR ALL BUT A
FEW LOCATIONS...AND WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 20S
ON WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

ENTRENCHED CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL PERSIST
FROM MIDWEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND THANKS TO RENEWED SPOUTS OF ARCTIC
AIR SPILLING THROUGH HUDSON BAY INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. NEGATIVE
PHASE OF THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION WILL ALLOW FOR THESE MULTIPLE COLD
INTRUSIONS TO MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY...KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE UNTIL PERHAPS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

ISOLATED/SCATTERED UPSLOPE-INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST
TO EAST WEDNESDAY EVENING IN WAKE OF A DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS AS
SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD AND INTO THE REGION. NWP CONTINUING
TO HINT AT A WEAK LAGGING BAND OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES BEHIND THIS
FEATURE WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT SHOULD SEE ANY DEVELOPMENT
REMAIN NEAR AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 71 CORRIDOR IF THIS SHALLOW
LIFT IS EVEN ENOUGH TO GENERATE ANY SEMBLANCE OF SNOW ALONG A
COLD FRONT.

AFTER TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 30S FRIDAY AS A PORTION OF THE COLD
DOME DISLODGES EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS...ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE
REMAINS ON TAP FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THUS LEADING TO HIGH TEMPERATURES
BACK IN THE 20S SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY SINGLE DIGIT LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING UNDERNEATH CLEARING SKIES. THE PARENT TROUGH OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW FOR MUCH OF EAST KENTUCKY LATER
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH A LITTLE RAIN
NEARER THE TENNESSEE BORDER PENDING ON HOW MUCH COLD AIR CAN BE
SHUNTED EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD THEN SPELL A DRY SECOND HALF OF SATURDAY
AND MOST OF SUNDAY...BEFORE A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL
BEGIN AS SNOW WITH A TRANSITION TO LIQUID ONCE AGAIN DEPENDENT ON
HOW QUICKLY ANY WARMER AIR CAN FILTER NORTH. ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM
SHOWS HINTS OF CONTINUING BEYOND THIS WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LINGERING TOWARD MIDWEEK. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR REGENERATION OF
HUDSON BAY LOW REGARDING TEMPERATURE MODIFICATION THROUGH THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE QUITE
INTENSE AND COULD PRODUCE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES. LOW
CIGS AND BLOWING SNOW WILL BE THE HAZARDS OF NOTE AT THE TAF SITES
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GUSEMAN
AVIATION...AR





000
FXUS63 KJKL 091135
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
635 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACTIVE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT THAT
IS CURRENTLY SPINNING IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL MOISTURE OFF OF
LAKE MICHIGAN DOWN THROUGH THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THIS MOIST AIR
INTERACTS WITH OUR ROUGH TERRAIN...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE VIRGINIA
BORDER...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE. THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHORT BUT INTENSE
BURSTS OF SNOW THAT WILL QUICKLY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO
AND SLICK SNOW COVERED ROADS. HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
BECAUSE OF THIS...WE DECIDED TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR OUR WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES THROUGH 10 AM ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 20S TODAY FOR ALL BUT A
FEW LOCATIONS...AND WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 20S
ON WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

ENTRENCHED CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL PERSIST
FROM MIDWEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND THANKS TO RENEWED SPOUTS OF ARCTIC
AIR SPILLING THROUGH HUDSON BAY INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. NEGATIVE
PHASE OF THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION WILL ALLOW FOR THESE MULTIPLE COLD
INTRUSIONS TO MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY...KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE UNTIL PERHAPS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

ISOLATED/SCATTERED UPSLOPE-INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST
TO EAST WEDNESDAY EVENING IN WAKE OF A DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS AS
SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD AND INTO THE REGION. NWP CONTINUING
TO HINT AT A WEAK LAGGING BAND OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES BEHIND THIS
FEATURE WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT SHOULD SEE ANY DEVELOPMENT
REMAIN NEAR AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 71 CORRIDOR IF THIS SHALLOW
LIFT IS EVEN ENOUGH TO GENERATE ANY SEMBLANCE OF SNOW ALONG A
COLD FRONT.

AFTER TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 30S FRIDAY AS A PORTION OF THE COLD
DOME DISLODGES EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS...ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE
REMAINS ON TAP FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THUS LEADING TO HIGH TEMPERATURES
BACK IN THE 20S SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY SINGLE DIGIT LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING UNDERNEATH CLEARING SKIES. THE PARENT TROUGH OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW FOR MUCH OF EAST KENTUCKY LATER
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH A LITTLE RAIN
NEARER THE TENNESSEE BORDER PENDING ON HOW MUCH COLD AIR CAN BE
SHUNTED EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD THEN SPELL A DRY SECOND HALF OF SATURDAY
AND MOST OF SUNDAY...BEFORE A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL
BEGIN AS SNOW WITH A TRANSITION TO LIQUID ONCE AGAIN DEPENDENT ON
HOW QUICKLY ANY WARMER AIR CAN FILTER NORTH. ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM
SHOWS HINTS OF CONTINUING BEYOND THIS WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LINGERING TOWARD MIDWEEK. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR REGENERATION OF
HUDSON BAY LOW REGARDING TEMPERATURE MODIFICATION THROUGH THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE QUITE
INTENSE AND COULD PRODUCE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES. LOW
CIGS AND BLOWING SNOW WILL BE THE HAZARDS OF NOTE AT THE TAF SITES
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GUSEMAN
AVIATION...AR





000
FXUS63 KJKL 090908
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
408 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACTIVE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT THAT
IS CURRENTLY SPINNING IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL MOISTURE OFF OF
LAKE MICHIGAN DOWN THROUGH THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THIS MOIST AIR
INTERACTS WITH OUR ROUGH TERRAIN...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE VIRGINIA
BORDER...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE. THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHORT BUT INTENSE
BURSTS OF SNOW THAT WILL QUICKLY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO
AND SLICK SNOW COVERED ROADS. HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
BECAUSE OF THIS...WE DECIDED TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR OUR WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES THROUGH 10 AM ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 20S TODAY FOR ALL BUT A
FEW LOCATIONS...AND WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 20S
ON WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

ENTRENCHED CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL PERSIST
FROM MIDWEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND THANKS TO RENEWED SPOUTS OF ARCTIC
AIR SPILLING THROUGH HUDSON BAY INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. NEGATIVE
PHASE OF THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION WILL ALLOW FOR THESE MULTIPLE COLD
INTRUSIONS TO MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY...KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE UNTIL PERHAPS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

ISOLATED/SCATTERED UPSLOPE-INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST
TO EAST WEDNESDAY EVENING IN WAKE OF A DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS AS
SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD AND INTO THE REGION. NWP CONTINUING
TO HINT AT A WEAK LAGGING BAND OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES BEHIND THIS
FEATURE WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT SHOULD SEE ANY DEVELOPMENT
REMAIN NEAR AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 71 CORRIDOR IF THIS SHALLOW
LIFT IS EVEN ENOUGH TO GENERATE ANY SEMBLANCE OF SNOW ALONG A
COLD FRONT.

AFTER TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 30S FRIDAY AS A PORTION OF THE COLD
DOME DISLODGES EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS...ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE
REMAINS ON TAP FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THUS LEADING TO HIGH TEMPERATURES
BACK IN THE 20S SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY SINGLE DIGIT LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING UNDERNEATH CLEARING SKIES. THE PARENT TROUGH OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW FOR MUCH OF EAST KENTUCKY LATER
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH A LITTLE RAIN
NEARER THE TENNESSEE BORDER PENDING ON HOW MUCH COLD AIR CAN BE
SHUNTED EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD THEN SPELL A DRY SECOND HALF OF SATURDAY
AND MOST OF SUNDAY...BEFORE A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL
BEGIN AS SNOW WITH A TRANSITION TO LIQUID ONCE AGAIN DEPENDENT ON
HOW QUICKLY ANY WARMER AIR CAN FILTER NORTH. ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM
SHOWS HINTS OF CONTINUING BEYOND THIS WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LINGERING TOWARD MIDWEEK. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR REGENERATION OF
HUDSON BAY LOW REGARDING TEMPERATURE MODIFICATION THROUGH THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

A DEEP TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE REGION THROUGH
MIDWEEK...KEEPING MVFR (AND AT TIMES IFR) CIGS IN PLACE ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY. IN ADDITION...SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS
SHOULD CONTINUE WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GUSEMAN
AVIATION...AR





000
FXUS63 KJKL 090527
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1227 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1052 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

MAINLY LIGHT SNOW WITH SMALL FLAKES BEING OBSERVED OVER MUCH OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY PRESENTLY. THERE IS AN ENHANCED AREA OF SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY WITH LIKELY LARGER DENDRITES
ALLOWING FOR BETTER SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. A REPORT OUT OF BELL
COUNTY EARLIER ALREADY HAD 0.5 INCHES OF SNOW AND THAT WAS BEFORE
THE ENHANCED AREA OF SNOW WENT OVER. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE
INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. REST OF THE AREA
WILL SEE VERY SLOW SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS GIVEN THE FLAKE SIZE.
HOWEVER...AREAS OF ENHANCEMENTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
DAYBREAK AS THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE
AREA. FAVORED AREAS WILL BE AREAS WHERE WEST FLOW PUSHES UP
AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN HELPING TO SPAWN MORE INTENSE SHOWERS.
UPDATED POPS/WEATHER TO HIGHLIGHT CURRENT ENHANCED AREA OF
SNOWFALL. BETTER BAND OF SNOW IS SETTING UP TO THE NORTH WHERE
WARNINGS ARE BEING ISSUES NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD STAY NORTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 808 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

BAND OF MORE INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS WILL EXIT TO THE EAST IN THE
NEXT HOUR. OTHERWISE...LOTS OF LIGHTER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. A MORE CONCENTRATED BAND OF SNOWFALL IS LOOKING
MORE LIKELY TO SET UP JUST TO OUR NORTH...KEEPING IT OUT OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT. WITH THIS SAID...UPDATED SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS TO LOWER THEM SOME IN THE NORTH. GENERALLY SPEAKING GIVEN
THE ACTIVITY OUT THERE PRESENTLY...MOST AREAS SHOULD STAY AT OR
UNDER AN INCH OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
FALL BELOW FREEZING AND WILL LEAD TO SOME SLICK SPOTS DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 437 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

A RELATIVE LULL IN SHOWERS WAS MAKING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A GREATER CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS WAS
MAKING ITS WAY IN FROM THE WEST. THE SHOWERS WERE MIXED RAIN AND
SNOW...WITH THE SNOW MORE LIKELY IN THE HEAVIER PRECIP. AS
TEMPERATURES FALL EARLY THIS EVENING...PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME
ALL SNOW AND BRING LASTING ACCUMULATION.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A NEARLY
STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
IT WILL BRING DEEP MOISTURE WITH UPSLOPE FLOW IN COLD AIR
ADVECTION ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH THESE FACTORS RESULTING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS. ASIDE FROM SOME
OF THE BRIEF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS...ACCUMULATION RATES WILL NOT BE
EXCEPTIONAL...BUT OVER THE COURSE OF TIME...MOST AREAS WILL SEE 1
TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW. THE LOWEST AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
SOUTHWEST...AND THE GREATEST IN THE NORTHEAST AND AT HIGH
ELEVATIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST. A FEW OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE
SOUTHEAST COULD SEE LOCALIZED AMOUNTS AROUND 6 INCHES.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW START TO WEAKEN AND THE SYSTEM LIFTS OUT TO
THE NORTHEAST...SNOW WILL START TO TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BEGIN PULLING EAST THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE PERIOD.  THIS WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IN THE
FORECAST FOR A GOOD PORTION OF EASTERN KY. THE FLOW WILL ALSO HAVE A
CHANCE OF TAPPING INTO SOME MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES FOR A
PERIOD OF THIS TIME. SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER FROM WEST TO
EAST THOUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. WHILE BARRAGE OF SNOW
SHOWERS COMES TO A END WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT COLD TEMPERATURES
WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS...HIGHS WILL NOT
MAKE IT ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. WE SEE MORE
DISAGREEMENTS MODEL WISE BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AND THIS WILL LEAD
TO MORE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN RELATION TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z ECMWF IS MUCH MORE ROBUST WITH
THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE BRINGING MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP AND A BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW...HOWEVER WILL SAY IT HAS BACKED OFF
SOME FROM THE PREVIOUS 00Z RUN IN RELATION TO QPF. THE GFS IS ON THE
OTHER EXTREME AND KEEPS IT DRY. RIGHT NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL
STICK TO THE MODEL BLEND AND THIS DOES PUT CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST. BEHIND THIS ANOTHER VERY STRONG SURFACE HIGH AND BASE OF
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...WHILE THE MODELS DISAGREE ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE
HIGH 850 MB TEMPS LOOK DROP INTO THE NEGATIVE 20 RANGE. RIGHT NOW
LOOKS REASONABLE TO HAVE TEMPS EASILY DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO DROP SOUTH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...RIGHT NOW WILL STICK WITH BLEND THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS WELL.
THAT WILL BRING AT LEAST CHANCE POPS ACROSS EASTERN KY ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

A DEEP TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE REGION THROUGH
MIDWEEK...KEEPING MVFR (AND AT TIMES IFR) CIGS IN PLACE ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY. IN ADDITION...SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS
SHOULD CONTINUE WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-111-114-116.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ087-088-
104-106>110-112-113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...AR




000
FXUS63 KJKL 090527
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1227 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1052 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

MAINLY LIGHT SNOW WITH SMALL FLAKES BEING OBSERVED OVER MUCH OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY PRESENTLY. THERE IS AN ENHANCED AREA OF SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY WITH LIKELY LARGER DENDRITES
ALLOWING FOR BETTER SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. A REPORT OUT OF BELL
COUNTY EARLIER ALREADY HAD 0.5 INCHES OF SNOW AND THAT WAS BEFORE
THE ENHANCED AREA OF SNOW WENT OVER. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE
INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. REST OF THE AREA
WILL SEE VERY SLOW SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS GIVEN THE FLAKE SIZE.
HOWEVER...AREAS OF ENHANCEMENTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
DAYBREAK AS THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE
AREA. FAVORED AREAS WILL BE AREAS WHERE WEST FLOW PUSHES UP
AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN HELPING TO SPAWN MORE INTENSE SHOWERS.
UPDATED POPS/WEATHER TO HIGHLIGHT CURRENT ENHANCED AREA OF
SNOWFALL. BETTER BAND OF SNOW IS SETTING UP TO THE NORTH WHERE
WARNINGS ARE BEING ISSUES NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD STAY NORTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 808 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

BAND OF MORE INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS WILL EXIT TO THE EAST IN THE
NEXT HOUR. OTHERWISE...LOTS OF LIGHTER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. A MORE CONCENTRATED BAND OF SNOWFALL IS LOOKING
MORE LIKELY TO SET UP JUST TO OUR NORTH...KEEPING IT OUT OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT. WITH THIS SAID...UPDATED SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS TO LOWER THEM SOME IN THE NORTH. GENERALLY SPEAKING GIVEN
THE ACTIVITY OUT THERE PRESENTLY...MOST AREAS SHOULD STAY AT OR
UNDER AN INCH OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
FALL BELOW FREEZING AND WILL LEAD TO SOME SLICK SPOTS DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 437 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

A RELATIVE LULL IN SHOWERS WAS MAKING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A GREATER CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS WAS
MAKING ITS WAY IN FROM THE WEST. THE SHOWERS WERE MIXED RAIN AND
SNOW...WITH THE SNOW MORE LIKELY IN THE HEAVIER PRECIP. AS
TEMPERATURES FALL EARLY THIS EVENING...PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME
ALL SNOW AND BRING LASTING ACCUMULATION.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A NEARLY
STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
IT WILL BRING DEEP MOISTURE WITH UPSLOPE FLOW IN COLD AIR
ADVECTION ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH THESE FACTORS RESULTING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS. ASIDE FROM SOME
OF THE BRIEF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS...ACCUMULATION RATES WILL NOT BE
EXCEPTIONAL...BUT OVER THE COURSE OF TIME...MOST AREAS WILL SEE 1
TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW. THE LOWEST AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
SOUTHWEST...AND THE GREATEST IN THE NORTHEAST AND AT HIGH
ELEVATIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST. A FEW OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE
SOUTHEAST COULD SEE LOCALIZED AMOUNTS AROUND 6 INCHES.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW START TO WEAKEN AND THE SYSTEM LIFTS OUT TO
THE NORTHEAST...SNOW WILL START TO TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BEGIN PULLING EAST THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE PERIOD.  THIS WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IN THE
FORECAST FOR A GOOD PORTION OF EASTERN KY. THE FLOW WILL ALSO HAVE A
CHANCE OF TAPPING INTO SOME MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES FOR A
PERIOD OF THIS TIME. SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER FROM WEST TO
EAST THOUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. WHILE BARRAGE OF SNOW
SHOWERS COMES TO A END WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT COLD TEMPERATURES
WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS...HIGHS WILL NOT
MAKE IT ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. WE SEE MORE
DISAGREEMENTS MODEL WISE BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AND THIS WILL LEAD
TO MORE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN RELATION TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z ECMWF IS MUCH MORE ROBUST WITH
THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE BRINGING MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP AND A BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW...HOWEVER WILL SAY IT HAS BACKED OFF
SOME FROM THE PREVIOUS 00Z RUN IN RELATION TO QPF. THE GFS IS ON THE
OTHER EXTREME AND KEEPS IT DRY. RIGHT NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL
STICK TO THE MODEL BLEND AND THIS DOES PUT CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST. BEHIND THIS ANOTHER VERY STRONG SURFACE HIGH AND BASE OF
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...WHILE THE MODELS DISAGREE ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE
HIGH 850 MB TEMPS LOOK DROP INTO THE NEGATIVE 20 RANGE. RIGHT NOW
LOOKS REASONABLE TO HAVE TEMPS EASILY DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO DROP SOUTH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...RIGHT NOW WILL STICK WITH BLEND THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS WELL.
THAT WILL BRING AT LEAST CHANCE POPS ACROSS EASTERN KY ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

A DEEP TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE REGION THROUGH
MIDWEEK...KEEPING MVFR (AND AT TIMES IFR) CIGS IN PLACE ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY. IN ADDITION...SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS
SHOULD CONTINUE WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-111-114-116.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ087-088-
104-106>110-112-113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...AR





000
FXUS63 KJKL 090352
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1052 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1052 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

MAINLY LIGHT SNOW WITH SMALL FLAKES BEING OBSERVED OVER MUCH OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY PRESENTLY. THERE IS AN ENHANCED AREA OF SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY WITH LIKELY LARGER DENDRITES
ALLOWING FOR BETTER SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. A REPORT OUT OF BELL
COUNTY EARLIER ALREADY HAD 0.5 INCHES OF SNOW AND THAT WAS BEFORE
THE ENHANCED AREA OF SNOW WENT OVER. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE
INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. REST OF THE AREA
WILL SEE VERY SLOW SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS GIVEN THE FLAKE SIZE.
HOWEVER...AREAS OF ENHANCEMENTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
DAYBREAK AS THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE
AREA. FAVORED AREAS WILL BE AREAS WHERE WEST FLOW PUSHES UP
AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN HELPING TO SPAWN MORE INTENSE SHOWERS.
UPDATED POPS/WEATHER TO HIGHLIGHT CURRENT ENHANCED AREA OF
SNOWFALL. BETTER BAND OF SNOW IS SETTING UP TO THE NORTH WHERE
WARNINGS ARE BEING ISSUES NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD STAY NORTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 808 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

BAND OF MORE INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS WILL EXIT TO THE EAST IN THE
NEXT HOUR. OTHERWISE...LOTS OF LIGHTER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. A MORE CONCENTRATED BAND OF SNOWFALL IS LOOKING
MORE LIKELY TO SET UP JUST TO OUR NORTH...KEEPING IT OUT OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT. WITH THIS SAID...UPDATED SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS TO LOWER THEM SOME IN THE NORTH. GENERALLY SPEAKING GIVEN
THE ACTIVITY OUT THERE PRESENTLY...MOST AREAS SHOULD STAY AT OR
UNDER AN INCH OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
FALL BELOW FREEZING AND WILL LEAD TO SOME SLICK SPOTS DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 437 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

A RELATIVE LULL IN SHOWERS WAS MAKING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A GREATER CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS WAS
MAKING ITS WAY IN FROM THE WEST. THE SHOWERS WERE MIXED RAIN AND
SNOW...WITH THE SNOW MORE LIKELY IN THE HEAVIER PRECIP. AS
TEMPERATURES FALL EARLY THIS EVENING...PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME
ALL SNOW AND BRING LASTING ACCUMULATION.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A NEARLY
STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
IT WILL BRING DEEP MOISTURE WITH UPSLOPE FLOW IN COLD AIR
ADVECTION ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH THESE FACTORS RESULTING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS. ASIDE FROM SOME
OF THE BRIEF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS...ACCUMULATION RATES WILL NOT BE
EXCEPTIONAL...BUT OVER THE COURSE OF TIME...MOST AREAS WILL SEE 1
TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW. THE LOWEST AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
SOUTHWEST...AND THE GREATEST IN THE NORTHEAST AND AT HIGH
ELEVATIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST. A FEW OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE
SOUTHEAST COULD SEE LOCALIZED AMOUNTS AROUND 6 INCHES.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW START TO WEAKEN AND THE SYSTEM LIFTS OUT TO
THE NORTHEAST...SNOW WILL START TO TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BEGIN PULLING EAST THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE PERIOD.  THIS WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IN THE
FORECAST FOR A GOOD PORTION OF EASTERN KY. THE FLOW WILL ALSO HAVE A
CHANCE OF TAPPING INTO SOME MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES FOR A
PERIOD OF THIS TIME. SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER FROM WEST TO
EAST THOUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. WHILE BARRAGE OF SNOW
SHOWERS COMES TO A END WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT COLD TEMPERATURES
WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS...HIGHS WILL NOT
MAKE IT ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. WE SEE MORE
DISAGREEMENTS MODEL WISE BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AND THIS WILL LEAD
TO MORE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN RELATION TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z ECMWF IS MUCH MORE ROBUST WITH
THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE BRINGING MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP AND A BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW...HOWEVER WILL SAY IT HAS BACKED OFF
SOME FROM THE PREVIOUS 00Z RUN IN RELATION TO QPF. THE GFS IS ON THE
OTHER EXTREME AND KEEPS IT DRY. RIGHT NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL
STICK TO THE MODEL BLEND AND THIS DOES PUT CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST. BEHIND THIS ANOTHER VERY STRONG SURFACE HIGH AND BASE OF
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...WHILE THE MODELS DISAGREE ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE
HIGH 850 MB TEMPS LOOK DROP INTO THE NEGATIVE 20 RANGE. RIGHT NOW
LOOKS REASONABLE TO HAVE TEMPS EASILY DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO DROP SOUTH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...RIGHT NOW WILL STICK WITH BLEND THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS WELL.
THAT WILL BRING AT LEAST CHANCE POPS ACROSS EASTERN KY ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 808 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

A DEEP TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE REGION THROUGH
MIDWEEK...KEEPING MVFR (AND AT TIMES IFR) CIGS IN PLACE ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY. IN ADDITION...SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS
SHOULD CONTINUE WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-111-114-116.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ087-088-
104-106>110-112-113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...KAS





000
FXUS63 KJKL 090108
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
808 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 808 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

BAND OF MORE INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS WILL EXIT TO THE EAST IN THE
NEXT HOUR. OTHERWISE...LOTS OF LIGHTER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. A MORE CONCENTRATED BAND OF SNOWFALL IS LOOKING
MORE LIKELY TO SET UP JUST TO OUR NORTH...KEEPING IT OUT OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT. WITH THIS SAID...UPDATED SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS TO LOWER THEM SOME IN THE NORTH. GENERALLY SPEAKING GIVEN
THE ACTIVITY OUT THERE PRESENTLY...MOST AREAS SHOULD STAY AT OR
UNDER AN INCH OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
FALL BELOW FREEZING AND WILL LEAD TO SOME SLICK SPOTS DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 437 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

A RELATIVE LULL IN SHOWERS WAS MAKING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A GREATER CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS WAS
MAKING ITS WAY IN FROM THE WEST. THE SHOWERS WERE MIXED RAIN AND
SNOW...WITH THE SNOW MORE LIKELY IN THE HEAVIER PRECIP. AS
TEMPERATURES FALL EARLY THIS EVENING...PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME
ALL SNOW AND BRING LASTING ACCUMULATION.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A NEARLY
STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
IT WILL BRING DEEP MOISTURE WITH UPSLOPE FLOW IN COLD AIR
ADVECTION ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH THESE FACTORS RESULTING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS. ASIDE FROM SOME
OF THE BRIEF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS...ACCUMULATION RATES WILL NOT BE
EXCEPTIONAL...BUT OVER THE COURSE OF TIME...MOST AREAS WILL SEE 1
TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW. THE LOWEST AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
SOUTHWEST...AND THE GREATEST IN THE NORTHEAST AND AT HIGH
ELEVATIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST. A FEW OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE
SOUTHEAST COULD SEE LOCALIZED AMOUNTS AROUND 6 INCHES.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW START TO WEAKEN AND THE SYSTEM LIFTS OUT TO
THE NORTHEAST...SNOW WILL START TO TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BEGIN PULLING EAST THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE PERIOD.  THIS WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IN THE
FORECAST FOR A GOOD PORTION OF EASTERN KY. THE FLOW WILL ALSO HAVE A
CHANCE OF TAPPING INTO SOME MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES FOR A
PERIOD OF THIS TIME. SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER FROM WEST TO
EAST THOUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. WHILE BARRAGE OF SNOW
SHOWERS COMES TO A END WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT COLD TEMPERATURES
WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS...HIGHS WILL NOT
MAKE IT ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. WE SEE MORE
DISAGREEMENTS MODEL WISE BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AND THIS WILL LEAD
TO MORE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN RELATION TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z ECMWF IS MUCH MORE ROBUST WITH
THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE BRINGING MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP AND A BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW...HOWEVER WILL SAY IT HAS BACKED OFF
SOME FROM THE PREVIOUS 00Z RUN IN RELATION TO QPF. THE GFS IS ON THE
OTHER EXTREME AND KEEPS IT DRY. RIGHT NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL
STICK TO THE MODEL BLEND AND THIS DOES PUT CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST. BEHIND THIS ANOTHER VERY STRONG SURFACE HIGH AND BASE OF
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...WHILE THE MODELS DISAGREE ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE
HIGH 850 MB TEMPS LOOK DROP INTO THE NEGATIVE 20 RANGE. RIGHT NOW
LOOKS REASONABLE TO HAVE TEMPS EASILY DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO DROP SOUTH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...RIGHT NOW WILL STICK WITH BLEND THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS WELL.
THAT WILL BRING AT LEAST CHANCE POPS ACROSS EASTERN KY ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 808 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

A DEEP TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE REGION THROUGH
MIDWEEK...KEEPING MVFR (AND AT TIMES IFR) CIGS IN PLACE ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY. IN ADDITION...SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS
SHOULD CONTINUE WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-111-114-116.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ087-088-
104-106>110-112-113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...KAS





000
FXUS63 KJKL 090108
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
808 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 808 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

BAND OF MORE INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS WILL EXIT TO THE EAST IN THE
NEXT HOUR. OTHERWISE...LOTS OF LIGHTER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. A MORE CONCENTRATED BAND OF SNOWFALL IS LOOKING
MORE LIKELY TO SET UP JUST TO OUR NORTH...KEEPING IT OUT OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT. WITH THIS SAID...UPDATED SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS TO LOWER THEM SOME IN THE NORTH. GENERALLY SPEAKING GIVEN
THE ACTIVITY OUT THERE PRESENTLY...MOST AREAS SHOULD STAY AT OR
UNDER AN INCH OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
FALL BELOW FREEZING AND WILL LEAD TO SOME SLICK SPOTS DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 437 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

A RELATIVE LULL IN SHOWERS WAS MAKING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A GREATER CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS WAS
MAKING ITS WAY IN FROM THE WEST. THE SHOWERS WERE MIXED RAIN AND
SNOW...WITH THE SNOW MORE LIKELY IN THE HEAVIER PRECIP. AS
TEMPERATURES FALL EARLY THIS EVENING...PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME
ALL SNOW AND BRING LASTING ACCUMULATION.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A NEARLY
STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
IT WILL BRING DEEP MOISTURE WITH UPSLOPE FLOW IN COLD AIR
ADVECTION ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH THESE FACTORS RESULTING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS. ASIDE FROM SOME
OF THE BRIEF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS...ACCUMULATION RATES WILL NOT BE
EXCEPTIONAL...BUT OVER THE COURSE OF TIME...MOST AREAS WILL SEE 1
TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW. THE LOWEST AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
SOUTHWEST...AND THE GREATEST IN THE NORTHEAST AND AT HIGH
ELEVATIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST. A FEW OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE
SOUTHEAST COULD SEE LOCALIZED AMOUNTS AROUND 6 INCHES.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW START TO WEAKEN AND THE SYSTEM LIFTS OUT TO
THE NORTHEAST...SNOW WILL START TO TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BEGIN PULLING EAST THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE PERIOD.  THIS WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IN THE
FORECAST FOR A GOOD PORTION OF EASTERN KY. THE FLOW WILL ALSO HAVE A
CHANCE OF TAPPING INTO SOME MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES FOR A
PERIOD OF THIS TIME. SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER FROM WEST TO
EAST THOUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. WHILE BARRAGE OF SNOW
SHOWERS COMES TO A END WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT COLD TEMPERATURES
WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS...HIGHS WILL NOT
MAKE IT ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. WE SEE MORE
DISAGREEMENTS MODEL WISE BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AND THIS WILL LEAD
TO MORE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN RELATION TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z ECMWF IS MUCH MORE ROBUST WITH
THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE BRINGING MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP AND A BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW...HOWEVER WILL SAY IT HAS BACKED OFF
SOME FROM THE PREVIOUS 00Z RUN IN RELATION TO QPF. THE GFS IS ON THE
OTHER EXTREME AND KEEPS IT DRY. RIGHT NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL
STICK TO THE MODEL BLEND AND THIS DOES PUT CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST. BEHIND THIS ANOTHER VERY STRONG SURFACE HIGH AND BASE OF
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...WHILE THE MODELS DISAGREE ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE
HIGH 850 MB TEMPS LOOK DROP INTO THE NEGATIVE 20 RANGE. RIGHT NOW
LOOKS REASONABLE TO HAVE TEMPS EASILY DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO DROP SOUTH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...RIGHT NOW WILL STICK WITH BLEND THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS WELL.
THAT WILL BRING AT LEAST CHANCE POPS ACROSS EASTERN KY ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 808 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

A DEEP TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE REGION THROUGH
MIDWEEK...KEEPING MVFR (AND AT TIMES IFR) CIGS IN PLACE ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY. IN ADDITION...SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS
SHOULD CONTINUE WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-111-114-116.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ087-088-
104-106>110-112-113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...KAS




000
FXUS63 KJKL 090108
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
808 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 808 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

BAND OF MORE INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS WILL EXIT TO THE EAST IN THE
NEXT HOUR. OTHERWISE...LOTS OF LIGHTER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. A MORE CONCENTRATED BAND OF SNOWFALL IS LOOKING
MORE LIKELY TO SET UP JUST TO OUR NORTH...KEEPING IT OUT OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT. WITH THIS SAID...UPDATED SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS TO LOWER THEM SOME IN THE NORTH. GENERALLY SPEAKING GIVEN
THE ACTIVITY OUT THERE PRESENTLY...MOST AREAS SHOULD STAY AT OR
UNDER AN INCH OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
FALL BELOW FREEZING AND WILL LEAD TO SOME SLICK SPOTS DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 437 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

A RELATIVE LULL IN SHOWERS WAS MAKING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A GREATER CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS WAS
MAKING ITS WAY IN FROM THE WEST. THE SHOWERS WERE MIXED RAIN AND
SNOW...WITH THE SNOW MORE LIKELY IN THE HEAVIER PRECIP. AS
TEMPERATURES FALL EARLY THIS EVENING...PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME
ALL SNOW AND BRING LASTING ACCUMULATION.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A NEARLY
STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
IT WILL BRING DEEP MOISTURE WITH UPSLOPE FLOW IN COLD AIR
ADVECTION ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH THESE FACTORS RESULTING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS. ASIDE FROM SOME
OF THE BRIEF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS...ACCUMULATION RATES WILL NOT BE
EXCEPTIONAL...BUT OVER THE COURSE OF TIME...MOST AREAS WILL SEE 1
TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW. THE LOWEST AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
SOUTHWEST...AND THE GREATEST IN THE NORTHEAST AND AT HIGH
ELEVATIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST. A FEW OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE
SOUTHEAST COULD SEE LOCALIZED AMOUNTS AROUND 6 INCHES.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW START TO WEAKEN AND THE SYSTEM LIFTS OUT TO
THE NORTHEAST...SNOW WILL START TO TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BEGIN PULLING EAST THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE PERIOD.  THIS WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IN THE
FORECAST FOR A GOOD PORTION OF EASTERN KY. THE FLOW WILL ALSO HAVE A
CHANCE OF TAPPING INTO SOME MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES FOR A
PERIOD OF THIS TIME. SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER FROM WEST TO
EAST THOUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. WHILE BARRAGE OF SNOW
SHOWERS COMES TO A END WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT COLD TEMPERATURES
WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS...HIGHS WILL NOT
MAKE IT ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. WE SEE MORE
DISAGREEMENTS MODEL WISE BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AND THIS WILL LEAD
TO MORE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN RELATION TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z ECMWF IS MUCH MORE ROBUST WITH
THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE BRINGING MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP AND A BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW...HOWEVER WILL SAY IT HAS BACKED OFF
SOME FROM THE PREVIOUS 00Z RUN IN RELATION TO QPF. THE GFS IS ON THE
OTHER EXTREME AND KEEPS IT DRY. RIGHT NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL
STICK TO THE MODEL BLEND AND THIS DOES PUT CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST. BEHIND THIS ANOTHER VERY STRONG SURFACE HIGH AND BASE OF
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...WHILE THE MODELS DISAGREE ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE
HIGH 850 MB TEMPS LOOK DROP INTO THE NEGATIVE 20 RANGE. RIGHT NOW
LOOKS REASONABLE TO HAVE TEMPS EASILY DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO DROP SOUTH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...RIGHT NOW WILL STICK WITH BLEND THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS WELL.
THAT WILL BRING AT LEAST CHANCE POPS ACROSS EASTERN KY ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 808 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

A DEEP TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE REGION THROUGH
MIDWEEK...KEEPING MVFR (AND AT TIMES IFR) CIGS IN PLACE ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY. IN ADDITION...SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS
SHOULD CONTINUE WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-111-114-116.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ087-088-
104-106>110-112-113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...KAS





000
FXUS63 KJKL 082138
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
438 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 437 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

A RELATIVE LULL IN SHOWERS WAS MAKING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A GREATER CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS WAS
MAKING ITS WAY IN FROM THE WEST. THE SHOWERS WERE MIXED RAIN AND
SNOW...WITH THE SNOW MORE LIKELY IN THE HEAVIER PRECIP. AS
TEMPERATURES FALL EARLY THIS EVENING...PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME
ALL SNOW AND BRING LASTING ACCUMULATION.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A NEARLY
STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
IT WILL BRING DEEP MOISTURE WITH UPSLOPE FLOW IN COLD AIR
ADVECTION ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH THESE FACTORS RESULTING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS. ASIDE FROM SOME
OF THE BRIEF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS...ACCUMULATION RATES WILL NOT BE
EXCEPTIONAL...BUT OVER THE COURSE OF TIME...MOST AREAS WILL SEE 1
TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW. THE LOWEST AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
SOUTHWEST...AND THE GREATEST IN THE NORTHEAST AND AT HIGH
ELEVATIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST. A FEW OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE
SOUTHEAST COULD SEE LOCALIZED AMOUNTS AROUND 6 INCHES.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW START TO WEAKEN AND THE SYSTEM LIFTS OUT TO
THE NORTHEAST...SNOW WILL START TO TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BEGIN PULLING EAST THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE PERIOD.  THIS WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IN THE
FORECAST FOR A GOOD PORTION OF EASTERN KY. THE FLOW WILL ALSO HAVE A
CHANCE OF TAPPING INTO SOME MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES FOR A
PERIOD OF THIS TIME. SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER FROM WEST TO
EAST THOUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. WHILE BARRAGE OF SNOW
SHOWERS COMES TO A END WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT COLD TEMPERATURES
WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS...HIGHS WILL NOT
MAKE IT ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. WE SEE MORE
DISAGREEMENTS MODEL WISE BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AND THIS WILL LEAD
TO MORE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN RELATION TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z ECMWF IS MUCH MORE ROBUST WITH
THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE BRINGING MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP AND A BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW...HOWEVER WILL SAY IT HAS BACKED OFF
SOME FROM THE PREVIOUS 00Z RUN IN RELATION TO QPF. THE GFS IS ON THE
OTHER EXTREME AND KEEPS IT DRY. RIGHT NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL
STICK TO THE MODEL BLEND AND THIS DOES PUT CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST. BEHIND THIS ANOTHER VERY STRONG SURFACE HIGH AND BASE OF
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...WHILE THE MODELS DISAGREE ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE
HIGH 850 MB TEMPS LOOK DROP INTO THE NEGATIVE 20 RANGE. RIGHT NOW
LOOKS REASONABLE TO HAVE TEMPS EASILY DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO DROP SOUTH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...RIGHT NOW WILL STICK WITH BLEND THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS WELL.
THAT WILL BRING AT LEAST CHANCE POPS ACROSS EASTERN KY ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 121 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

A BAND OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS PASSING EASTWARD THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING A QUICK DROP TO IFR
CONDITIONS IN SNOW. EAST OF THIS BAND...CONDITIONS WERE GENERALLY
VFR. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY AND
THIS EVENING...AND THEN CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL CREATE MVFR CONDITIONS...AND IFR AT
TIMES...LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-111-114-116.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ088-118-
120.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ104-
106>110-112-113-115-117-119.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR KYZ087.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...HAL





000
FXUS63 KJKL 081856
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
156 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 156 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

UPDATED TO BLEND EARLY AFTERNOON OBS INTO THE FORECAST...WITHOUT
ANY SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1015 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

HAVE UPDATED TO FINE TUNE THE TIMING OF THE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP
HEADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. ALSO BLENDED OBSERVED TEMPS
AND SKY CONDITIONS INTO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 836 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE AREA IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY ALREADY MOVING IN FROM
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE
FREEZING FOR MOST LOCATIONS AT THIS POINT...SO HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN IN THE
EAST. SNOW HAS BEEN MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...SO HAVE ALLOWED FOR MORE OF A SNOW MENTION THROUGH THE
REST OF THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RECOVER TO THE UPPER
30S TO AROUND 40...ALTHOUGH DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE SHOWERS
AND THICKER CLOUDS MOVE BACK IN...THESE HIGHS MIGHT BE A BIT
GENEROUS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
VALLEY TEMPERATURES HAVE RESPONDED IN THE PAST HOUR...HOWEVER
BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP RUNS...AM STILL CONCERNED FOR
SOME SHELTERED LOCATIONS IN THE EAST POTENTIALLY ENDING UP WITH A
LIGHT GLAZE. AS SUCH...HAVE HOISTED A SHORT FUSE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL. IF THE BETTER WARMING
TRENDS CONTINUE LIKE THEY HAVE IN THE PAST HOUR...THEN THIS WILL
LIKELY GET DROPPED BEFORE EXPIRING.

ONCE THIS FIRST BATCH OF RAIN DEPARTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...THERE
WILL BE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY...UNTIL A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE LAPSE RATES STEEPEN UP
QUITE A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...AND HAVE INCLUDED SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER...WITH THE NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 40S FOR MOST TODAY...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY HOLDING OFF FOR MOST PLACES UNTIL DUSK OR SLIGHTLY
THEREAFTER. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AS THE COLUMN COOLS QUICKER ALOFT.

LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS WILL KICK IN TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY DEEPENS
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES ROTATE THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY. STORM TOTALS STILL LOOK TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 4
INCHES...WITH 4 TO 6 INCHES FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE
SOUTHEAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TAKING A NOSE DIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
READINGS FALLING BELOW FREEZING BY THIS EVENING...AND THEN INTO
THE 20S THROUGH TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 618 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE SIMILAR EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THEN BUT
DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY DURING THE LAST 72 HOURS OR SO OF THE
FORECAST. BROAD MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL IMPULSES
ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE. MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE
A LATE WEEK SHORTWAVE THAT MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY
WEATHER FOR THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS BOTH RUNS THE 0Z ECMWF
AND GFS HAVE DIVERGED FROM THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS OF 24 HOUR
BACK. THE 0/06Z GFS HAS TRENDED FASTER...MUCH WEAKER AND FURTHER
SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS...HARDLY PRODUCING ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE 0Z ECMWF IS
SLOWER AND STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM...CARRYING A DEEPENING SFC
WAVE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. CONSEQUENTLY THE ECMWF
ADVERTISES A MORE FAVORABLE PATH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL AND CURRENTLY ADVERTISES SUCH. HOWEVER...OVERALL
CONFIDENCE WILL CONTINUE TO RUN LOW WITH EITHER SOLUTION UNTIL
THERE IS BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 121 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

A BAND OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS PASSING EASTWARD THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING A QUICK DROP TO IFR
CONDITIONS IN SNOW. EAST OF THIS BAND...CONDITIONS WERE GENERALLY
VFR. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY AND
THIS EVENING...AND THEN CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL CREATE MVFR CONDITIONS...AND IFR AT
TIMES...LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-111-
114-116.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ088-118-
120.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ104-106>110-112-113-115-117-119.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR KYZ087.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL/GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...HAL




000
FXUS63 KJKL 081856
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
156 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 156 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

UPDATED TO BLEND EARLY AFTERNOON OBS INTO THE FORECAST...WITHOUT
ANY SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1015 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

HAVE UPDATED TO FINE TUNE THE TIMING OF THE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP
HEADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. ALSO BLENDED OBSERVED TEMPS
AND SKY CONDITIONS INTO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 836 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE AREA IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY ALREADY MOVING IN FROM
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE
FREEZING FOR MOST LOCATIONS AT THIS POINT...SO HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN IN THE
EAST. SNOW HAS BEEN MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...SO HAVE ALLOWED FOR MORE OF A SNOW MENTION THROUGH THE
REST OF THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RECOVER TO THE UPPER
30S TO AROUND 40...ALTHOUGH DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE SHOWERS
AND THICKER CLOUDS MOVE BACK IN...THESE HIGHS MIGHT BE A BIT
GENEROUS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
VALLEY TEMPERATURES HAVE RESPONDED IN THE PAST HOUR...HOWEVER
BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP RUNS...AM STILL CONCERNED FOR
SOME SHELTERED LOCATIONS IN THE EAST POTENTIALLY ENDING UP WITH A
LIGHT GLAZE. AS SUCH...HAVE HOISTED A SHORT FUSE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL. IF THE BETTER WARMING
TRENDS CONTINUE LIKE THEY HAVE IN THE PAST HOUR...THEN THIS WILL
LIKELY GET DROPPED BEFORE EXPIRING.

ONCE THIS FIRST BATCH OF RAIN DEPARTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...THERE
WILL BE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY...UNTIL A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE LAPSE RATES STEEPEN UP
QUITE A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...AND HAVE INCLUDED SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER...WITH THE NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 40S FOR MOST TODAY...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY HOLDING OFF FOR MOST PLACES UNTIL DUSK OR SLIGHTLY
THEREAFTER. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AS THE COLUMN COOLS QUICKER ALOFT.

LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS WILL KICK IN TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY DEEPENS
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES ROTATE THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY. STORM TOTALS STILL LOOK TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 4
INCHES...WITH 4 TO 6 INCHES FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE
SOUTHEAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TAKING A NOSE DIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
READINGS FALLING BELOW FREEZING BY THIS EVENING...AND THEN INTO
THE 20S THROUGH TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 618 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE SIMILAR EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THEN BUT
DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY DURING THE LAST 72 HOURS OR SO OF THE
FORECAST. BROAD MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL IMPULSES
ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE. MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE
A LATE WEEK SHORTWAVE THAT MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY
WEATHER FOR THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS BOTH RUNS THE 0Z ECMWF
AND GFS HAVE DIVERGED FROM THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS OF 24 HOUR
BACK. THE 0/06Z GFS HAS TRENDED FASTER...MUCH WEAKER AND FURTHER
SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS...HARDLY PRODUCING ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE 0Z ECMWF IS
SLOWER AND STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM...CARRYING A DEEPENING SFC
WAVE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. CONSEQUENTLY THE ECMWF
ADVERTISES A MORE FAVORABLE PATH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL AND CURRENTLY ADVERTISES SUCH. HOWEVER...OVERALL
CONFIDENCE WILL CONTINUE TO RUN LOW WITH EITHER SOLUTION UNTIL
THERE IS BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 121 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

A BAND OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS PASSING EASTWARD THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING A QUICK DROP TO IFR
CONDITIONS IN SNOW. EAST OF THIS BAND...CONDITIONS WERE GENERALLY
VFR. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY AND
THIS EVENING...AND THEN CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL CREATE MVFR CONDITIONS...AND IFR AT
TIMES...LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-111-
114-116.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ088-118-
120.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ104-106>110-112-113-115-117-119.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR KYZ087.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL/GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...HAL





000
FXUS63 KJKL 081856
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
156 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 156 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

UPDATED TO BLEND EARLY AFTERNOON OBS INTO THE FORECAST...WITHOUT
ANY SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1015 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

HAVE UPDATED TO FINE TUNE THE TIMING OF THE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP
HEADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. ALSO BLENDED OBSERVED TEMPS
AND SKY CONDITIONS INTO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 836 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE AREA IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY ALREADY MOVING IN FROM
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE
FREEZING FOR MOST LOCATIONS AT THIS POINT...SO HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN IN THE
EAST. SNOW HAS BEEN MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...SO HAVE ALLOWED FOR MORE OF A SNOW MENTION THROUGH THE
REST OF THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RECOVER TO THE UPPER
30S TO AROUND 40...ALTHOUGH DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE SHOWERS
AND THICKER CLOUDS MOVE BACK IN...THESE HIGHS MIGHT BE A BIT
GENEROUS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
VALLEY TEMPERATURES HAVE RESPONDED IN THE PAST HOUR...HOWEVER
BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP RUNS...AM STILL CONCERNED FOR
SOME SHELTERED LOCATIONS IN THE EAST POTENTIALLY ENDING UP WITH A
LIGHT GLAZE. AS SUCH...HAVE HOISTED A SHORT FUSE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL. IF THE BETTER WARMING
TRENDS CONTINUE LIKE THEY HAVE IN THE PAST HOUR...THEN THIS WILL
LIKELY GET DROPPED BEFORE EXPIRING.

ONCE THIS FIRST BATCH OF RAIN DEPARTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...THERE
WILL BE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY...UNTIL A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE LAPSE RATES STEEPEN UP
QUITE A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...AND HAVE INCLUDED SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER...WITH THE NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 40S FOR MOST TODAY...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY HOLDING OFF FOR MOST PLACES UNTIL DUSK OR SLIGHTLY
THEREAFTER. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AS THE COLUMN COOLS QUICKER ALOFT.

LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS WILL KICK IN TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY DEEPENS
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES ROTATE THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY. STORM TOTALS STILL LOOK TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 4
INCHES...WITH 4 TO 6 INCHES FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE
SOUTHEAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TAKING A NOSE DIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
READINGS FALLING BELOW FREEZING BY THIS EVENING...AND THEN INTO
THE 20S THROUGH TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 618 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE SIMILAR EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THEN BUT
DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY DURING THE LAST 72 HOURS OR SO OF THE
FORECAST. BROAD MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL IMPULSES
ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE. MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE
A LATE WEEK SHORTWAVE THAT MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY
WEATHER FOR THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS BOTH RUNS THE 0Z ECMWF
AND GFS HAVE DIVERGED FROM THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS OF 24 HOUR
BACK. THE 0/06Z GFS HAS TRENDED FASTER...MUCH WEAKER AND FURTHER
SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS...HARDLY PRODUCING ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE 0Z ECMWF IS
SLOWER AND STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM...CARRYING A DEEPENING SFC
WAVE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. CONSEQUENTLY THE ECMWF
ADVERTISES A MORE FAVORABLE PATH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL AND CURRENTLY ADVERTISES SUCH. HOWEVER...OVERALL
CONFIDENCE WILL CONTINUE TO RUN LOW WITH EITHER SOLUTION UNTIL
THERE IS BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 121 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

A BAND OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS PASSING EASTWARD THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING A QUICK DROP TO IFR
CONDITIONS IN SNOW. EAST OF THIS BAND...CONDITIONS WERE GENERALLY
VFR. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY AND
THIS EVENING...AND THEN CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL CREATE MVFR CONDITIONS...AND IFR AT
TIMES...LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-111-
114-116.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ088-118-
120.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ104-106>110-112-113-115-117-119.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR KYZ087.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL/GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...HAL





000
FXUS63 KJKL 081821
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
121 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1015 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

HAVE UPDATED TO FINE TUNE THE TIMING OF THE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP
HEADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. ALSO BLENDED OBSERVED TEMPS
AND SKY CONDITIONS INTO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 836 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE AREA IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY ALREADY MOVING IN FROM
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE
FREEZING FOR MOST LOCATIONS AT THIS POINT...SO HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN IN THE
EAST. SNOW HAS BEEN MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...SO HAVE ALLOWED FOR MORE OF A SNOW MENTION THROUGH THE
REST OF THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RECOVER TO THE UPPER
30S TO AROUND 40...ALTHOUGH DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE SHOWERS
AND THICKER CLOUDS MOVE BACK IN...THESE HIGHS MIGHT BE A BIT
GENEROUS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
VALLEY TEMPERATURES HAVE RESPONDED IN THE PAST HOUR...HOWEVER
BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP RUNS...AM STILL CONCERNED FOR
SOME SHELTERED LOCATIONS IN THE EAST POTENTIALLY ENDING UP WITH A
LIGHT GLAZE. AS SUCH...HAVE HOISTED A SHORT FUSE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL. IF THE BETTER WARMING
TRENDS CONTINUE LIKE THEY HAVE IN THE PAST HOUR...THEN THIS WILL
LIKELY GET DROPPED BEFORE EXPIRING.

ONCE THIS FIRST BATCH OF RAIN DEPARTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...THERE
WILL BE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY...UNTIL A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE LAPSE RATES STEEPEN UP
QUITE A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...AND HAVE INCLUDED SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER...WITH THE NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 40S FOR MOST TODAY...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY HOLDING OFF FOR MOST PLACES UNTIL DUSK OR SLIGHTLY
THEREAFTER. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AS THE COLUMN COOLS QUICKER ALOFT.

LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS WILL KICK IN TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY DEEPENS
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES ROTATE THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY. STORM TOTALS STILL LOOK TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 4
INCHES...WITH 4 TO 6 INCHES FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE
SOUTHEAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TAKING A NOSE DIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
READINGS FALLING BELOW FREEZING BY THIS EVENING...AND THEN INTO
THE 20S THROUGH TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 618 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE SIMILAR EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THEN BUT
DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY DURING THE LAST 72 HOURS OR SO OF THE
FORECAST. BROAD MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL IMPULSES
ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE. MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE
A LATE WEEK SHORTWAVE THAT MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY
WEATHER FOR THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS BOTH RUNS THE 0Z ECMWF
AND GFS HAVE DIVERGED FROM THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS OF 24 HOUR
BACK. THE 0/06Z GFS HAS TRENDED FASTER...MUCH WEAKER AND FURTHER
SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS...HARDLY PRODUCING ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE 0Z ECMWF IS
SLOWER AND STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM...CARRYING A DEEPENING SFC
WAVE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. CONSEQUENTLY THE ECMWF
ADVERTISES A MORE FAVORABLE PATH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL AND CURRENTLY ADVERTISES SUCH. HOWEVER...OVERALL
CONFIDENCE WILL CONTINUE TO RUN LOW WITH EITHER SOLUTION UNTIL
THERE IS BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 121 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

A BAND OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS PASSING EASTWARD THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING A QUICK DROP TO IFR
CONDITIONS IN SNOW. EAST OF THIS BAND...CONDITIONS WERE GENERALLY
VFR. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY AND
THIS EVENING...AND THEN CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL CREATE MVFR CONDITIONS...AND IFR AT
TIMES...LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-111-
114-116.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ088-118-
120.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ104-106>110-112-113-115-117-119.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR KYZ087.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL/GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...HAL





000
FXUS63 KJKL 081821
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
121 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1015 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

HAVE UPDATED TO FINE TUNE THE TIMING OF THE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP
HEADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. ALSO BLENDED OBSERVED TEMPS
AND SKY CONDITIONS INTO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 836 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE AREA IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY ALREADY MOVING IN FROM
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE
FREEZING FOR MOST LOCATIONS AT THIS POINT...SO HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN IN THE
EAST. SNOW HAS BEEN MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...SO HAVE ALLOWED FOR MORE OF A SNOW MENTION THROUGH THE
REST OF THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RECOVER TO THE UPPER
30S TO AROUND 40...ALTHOUGH DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE SHOWERS
AND THICKER CLOUDS MOVE BACK IN...THESE HIGHS MIGHT BE A BIT
GENEROUS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
VALLEY TEMPERATURES HAVE RESPONDED IN THE PAST HOUR...HOWEVER
BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP RUNS...AM STILL CONCERNED FOR
SOME SHELTERED LOCATIONS IN THE EAST POTENTIALLY ENDING UP WITH A
LIGHT GLAZE. AS SUCH...HAVE HOISTED A SHORT FUSE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL. IF THE BETTER WARMING
TRENDS CONTINUE LIKE THEY HAVE IN THE PAST HOUR...THEN THIS WILL
LIKELY GET DROPPED BEFORE EXPIRING.

ONCE THIS FIRST BATCH OF RAIN DEPARTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...THERE
WILL BE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY...UNTIL A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE LAPSE RATES STEEPEN UP
QUITE A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...AND HAVE INCLUDED SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER...WITH THE NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 40S FOR MOST TODAY...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY HOLDING OFF FOR MOST PLACES UNTIL DUSK OR SLIGHTLY
THEREAFTER. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AS THE COLUMN COOLS QUICKER ALOFT.

LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS WILL KICK IN TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY DEEPENS
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES ROTATE THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY. STORM TOTALS STILL LOOK TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 4
INCHES...WITH 4 TO 6 INCHES FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE
SOUTHEAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TAKING A NOSE DIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
READINGS FALLING BELOW FREEZING BY THIS EVENING...AND THEN INTO
THE 20S THROUGH TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 618 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE SIMILAR EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THEN BUT
DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY DURING THE LAST 72 HOURS OR SO OF THE
FORECAST. BROAD MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL IMPULSES
ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE. MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE
A LATE WEEK SHORTWAVE THAT MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY
WEATHER FOR THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS BOTH RUNS THE 0Z ECMWF
AND GFS HAVE DIVERGED FROM THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS OF 24 HOUR
BACK. THE 0/06Z GFS HAS TRENDED FASTER...MUCH WEAKER AND FURTHER
SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS...HARDLY PRODUCING ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE 0Z ECMWF IS
SLOWER AND STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM...CARRYING A DEEPENING SFC
WAVE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. CONSEQUENTLY THE ECMWF
ADVERTISES A MORE FAVORABLE PATH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL AND CURRENTLY ADVERTISES SUCH. HOWEVER...OVERALL
CONFIDENCE WILL CONTINUE TO RUN LOW WITH EITHER SOLUTION UNTIL
THERE IS BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 121 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

A BAND OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS PASSING EASTWARD THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING A QUICK DROP TO IFR
CONDITIONS IN SNOW. EAST OF THIS BAND...CONDITIONS WERE GENERALLY
VFR. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY AND
THIS EVENING...AND THEN CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL CREATE MVFR CONDITIONS...AND IFR AT
TIMES...LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-111-
114-116.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ088-118-
120.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ104-106>110-112-113-115-117-119.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR KYZ087.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL/GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...HAL





000
FXUS63 KJKL 081821
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
121 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1015 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

HAVE UPDATED TO FINE TUNE THE TIMING OF THE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP
HEADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. ALSO BLENDED OBSERVED TEMPS
AND SKY CONDITIONS INTO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 836 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE AREA IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY ALREADY MOVING IN FROM
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE
FREEZING FOR MOST LOCATIONS AT THIS POINT...SO HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN IN THE
EAST. SNOW HAS BEEN MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...SO HAVE ALLOWED FOR MORE OF A SNOW MENTION THROUGH THE
REST OF THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RECOVER TO THE UPPER
30S TO AROUND 40...ALTHOUGH DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE SHOWERS
AND THICKER CLOUDS MOVE BACK IN...THESE HIGHS MIGHT BE A BIT
GENEROUS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
VALLEY TEMPERATURES HAVE RESPONDED IN THE PAST HOUR...HOWEVER
BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP RUNS...AM STILL CONCERNED FOR
SOME SHELTERED LOCATIONS IN THE EAST POTENTIALLY ENDING UP WITH A
LIGHT GLAZE. AS SUCH...HAVE HOISTED A SHORT FUSE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL. IF THE BETTER WARMING
TRENDS CONTINUE LIKE THEY HAVE IN THE PAST HOUR...THEN THIS WILL
LIKELY GET DROPPED BEFORE EXPIRING.

ONCE THIS FIRST BATCH OF RAIN DEPARTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...THERE
WILL BE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY...UNTIL A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE LAPSE RATES STEEPEN UP
QUITE A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...AND HAVE INCLUDED SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER...WITH THE NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 40S FOR MOST TODAY...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY HOLDING OFF FOR MOST PLACES UNTIL DUSK OR SLIGHTLY
THEREAFTER. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AS THE COLUMN COOLS QUICKER ALOFT.

LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS WILL KICK IN TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY DEEPENS
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES ROTATE THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY. STORM TOTALS STILL LOOK TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 4
INCHES...WITH 4 TO 6 INCHES FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE
SOUTHEAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TAKING A NOSE DIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
READINGS FALLING BELOW FREEZING BY THIS EVENING...AND THEN INTO
THE 20S THROUGH TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 618 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE SIMILAR EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THEN BUT
DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY DURING THE LAST 72 HOURS OR SO OF THE
FORECAST. BROAD MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL IMPULSES
ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE. MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE
A LATE WEEK SHORTWAVE THAT MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY
WEATHER FOR THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS BOTH RUNS THE 0Z ECMWF
AND GFS HAVE DIVERGED FROM THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS OF 24 HOUR
BACK. THE 0/06Z GFS HAS TRENDED FASTER...MUCH WEAKER AND FURTHER
SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS...HARDLY PRODUCING ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE 0Z ECMWF IS
SLOWER AND STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM...CARRYING A DEEPENING SFC
WAVE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. CONSEQUENTLY THE ECMWF
ADVERTISES A MORE FAVORABLE PATH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL AND CURRENTLY ADVERTISES SUCH. HOWEVER...OVERALL
CONFIDENCE WILL CONTINUE TO RUN LOW WITH EITHER SOLUTION UNTIL
THERE IS BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 121 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

A BAND OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS PASSING EASTWARD THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING A QUICK DROP TO IFR
CONDITIONS IN SNOW. EAST OF THIS BAND...CONDITIONS WERE GENERALLY
VFR. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY AND
THIS EVENING...AND THEN CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL CREATE MVFR CONDITIONS...AND IFR AT
TIMES...LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-111-
114-116.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ088-118-
120.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ104-106>110-112-113-115-117-119.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR KYZ087.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL/GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...HAL




000
FXUS63 KJKL 081516
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1016 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1015 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

HAVE UPDATED TO FINE TUNE THE TIMING OF THE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP
HEADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. ALSO BLENDED OBSERVED TEMPS
AND SKY CONDITIONS INTO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 836 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE AREA IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY ALREADY MOVING IN FROM
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE
FREEZING FOR MOST LOCATIONS AT THIS POINT...SO HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN IN THE
EAST. SNOW HAS BEEN MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...SO HAVE ALLOWED FOR MORE OF A SNOW MENTION THROUGH THE
REST OF THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RECOVER TO THE UPPER
30S TO AROUND 40...ALTHOUGH DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE SHOWERS
AND THICKER CLOUDS MOVE BACK IN...THESE HIGHS MIGHT BE A BIT
GENEROUS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
VALLEY TEMPERATURES HAVE RESPONDED IN THE PAST HOUR...HOWEVER
BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP RUNS...AM STILL CONCERNED FOR
SOME SHELTERED LOCATIONS IN THE EAST POTENTIALLY ENDING UP WITH A
LIGHT GLAZE. AS SUCH...HAVE HOISTED A SHORT FUSE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL. IF THE BETTER WARMING
TRENDS CONTINUE LIKE THEY HAVE IN THE PAST HOUR...THEN THIS WILL
LIKELY GET DROPPED BEFORE EXPIRING.

ONCE THIS FIRST BATCH OF RAIN DEPARTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...THERE
WILL BE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY...UNTIL A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE LAPSE RATES STEEPEN UP
QUITE A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...AND HAVE INCLUDED SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER...WITH THE NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 40S FOR MOST TODAY...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY HOLDING OFF FOR MOST PLACES UNTIL DUSK OR SLIGHTLY
THEREAFTER. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AS THE COLUMN COOLS QUICKER ALOFT.

LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS WILL KICK IN TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY DEEPENS
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES ROTATE THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY. STORM TOTALS STILL LOOK TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 4
INCHES...WITH 4 TO 6 INCHES FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE
SOUTHEAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TAKING A NOSE DIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
READINGS FALLING BELOW FREEZING BY THIS EVENING...AND THEN INTO
THE 20S THROUGH TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 618 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE SIMILAR EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THEN BUT
DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY DURING THE LAST 72 HOURS OR SO OF THE
FORECAST. BROAD MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL IMPULSES
ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE. MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE
A LATE WEEK SHORTWAVE THAT MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY
WEATHER FOR THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS BOTH RUNS THE 0Z ECMWF
AND GFS HAVE DIVERGED FROM THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS OF 24 HOUR
BACK. THE 0/06Z GFS HAS TRENDED FASTER...MUCH WEAKER AND FURTHER
SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS...HARDLY PRODUCING ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE 0Z ECMWF IS
SLOWER AND STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM...CARRYING A DEEPENING SFC
WAVE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. CONSEQUENTLY THE ECMWF
ADVERTISES A MORE FAVORABLE PATH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL AND CURRENTLY ADVERTISES SUCH. HOWEVER...OVERALL
CONFIDENCE WILL CONTINUE TO RUN LOW WITH EITHER SOLUTION UNTIL
THERE IS BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 836 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

THE PASSING COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT TEMPORARY IFR OR WORSE
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE
AN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR/VFR BEHIND THE INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY...BEFORE CEILINGS DROP OFF ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. THERE
MAY EVEN BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AT TIMES. INCOMING COLDER AIR WILL
THEN CHANGE ANY RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO ALL SNOW SHOWERS TOWARDS
DUSK...WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL AVERAGE AT 5 TO 10 KTS OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-111-
114-116.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ088-118-
120.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ104-106>110-112-113-115-117-119.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR KYZ087.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL/GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN





000
FXUS63 KJKL 081516
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1016 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1015 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

HAVE UPDATED TO FINE TUNE THE TIMING OF THE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP
HEADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. ALSO BLENDED OBSERVED TEMPS
AND SKY CONDITIONS INTO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 836 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE AREA IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY ALREADY MOVING IN FROM
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE
FREEZING FOR MOST LOCATIONS AT THIS POINT...SO HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN IN THE
EAST. SNOW HAS BEEN MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...SO HAVE ALLOWED FOR MORE OF A SNOW MENTION THROUGH THE
REST OF THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RECOVER TO THE UPPER
30S TO AROUND 40...ALTHOUGH DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE SHOWERS
AND THICKER CLOUDS MOVE BACK IN...THESE HIGHS MIGHT BE A BIT
GENEROUS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
VALLEY TEMPERATURES HAVE RESPONDED IN THE PAST HOUR...HOWEVER
BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP RUNS...AM STILL CONCERNED FOR
SOME SHELTERED LOCATIONS IN THE EAST POTENTIALLY ENDING UP WITH A
LIGHT GLAZE. AS SUCH...HAVE HOISTED A SHORT FUSE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL. IF THE BETTER WARMING
TRENDS CONTINUE LIKE THEY HAVE IN THE PAST HOUR...THEN THIS WILL
LIKELY GET DROPPED BEFORE EXPIRING.

ONCE THIS FIRST BATCH OF RAIN DEPARTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...THERE
WILL BE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY...UNTIL A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE LAPSE RATES STEEPEN UP
QUITE A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...AND HAVE INCLUDED SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER...WITH THE NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 40S FOR MOST TODAY...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY HOLDING OFF FOR MOST PLACES UNTIL DUSK OR SLIGHTLY
THEREAFTER. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AS THE COLUMN COOLS QUICKER ALOFT.

LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS WILL KICK IN TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY DEEPENS
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES ROTATE THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY. STORM TOTALS STILL LOOK TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 4
INCHES...WITH 4 TO 6 INCHES FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE
SOUTHEAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TAKING A NOSE DIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
READINGS FALLING BELOW FREEZING BY THIS EVENING...AND THEN INTO
THE 20S THROUGH TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 618 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE SIMILAR EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THEN BUT
DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY DURING THE LAST 72 HOURS OR SO OF THE
FORECAST. BROAD MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL IMPULSES
ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE. MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE
A LATE WEEK SHORTWAVE THAT MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY
WEATHER FOR THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS BOTH RUNS THE 0Z ECMWF
AND GFS HAVE DIVERGED FROM THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS OF 24 HOUR
BACK. THE 0/06Z GFS HAS TRENDED FASTER...MUCH WEAKER AND FURTHER
SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS...HARDLY PRODUCING ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE 0Z ECMWF IS
SLOWER AND STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM...CARRYING A DEEPENING SFC
WAVE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. CONSEQUENTLY THE ECMWF
ADVERTISES A MORE FAVORABLE PATH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL AND CURRENTLY ADVERTISES SUCH. HOWEVER...OVERALL
CONFIDENCE WILL CONTINUE TO RUN LOW WITH EITHER SOLUTION UNTIL
THERE IS BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 836 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

THE PASSING COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT TEMPORARY IFR OR WORSE
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE
AN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR/VFR BEHIND THE INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY...BEFORE CEILINGS DROP OFF ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. THERE
MAY EVEN BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AT TIMES. INCOMING COLDER AIR WILL
THEN CHANGE ANY RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO ALL SNOW SHOWERS TOWARDS
DUSK...WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL AVERAGE AT 5 TO 10 KTS OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-111-
114-116.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ088-118-
120.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ104-106>110-112-113-115-117-119.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR KYZ087.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL/GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN




000
FXUS63 KJKL 081336 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
836 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 836 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE AREA IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY ALREADY MOVING IN FROM
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE
FREEZING FOR MOST LOCATIONS AT THIS POINT...SO HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN IN THE
EAST. SNOW HAS BEEN MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...SO HAVE ALLOWED FOR MORE OF A SNOW MENTION THROUGH THE
REST OF THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RECOVER TO THE UPPER
30S TO AROUND 40...ALTHOUGH DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE SHOWERS
AND THICKER CLOUDS MOVE BACK IN...THESE HIGHS MIGHT BE A BIT
GENEROUS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
VALLEY TEMPERATURES HAVE RESPONDED IN THE PAST HOUR...HOWEVER
BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP RUNS...AM STILL CONCERNED FOR
SOME SHELTERED LOCATIONS IN THE EAST POTENTIALLY ENDING UP WITH A
LIGHT GLAZE. AS SUCH...HAVE HOISTED A SHORT FUSE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL. IF THE BETTER WARMING
TRENDS CONTINUE LIKE THEY HAVE IN THE PAST HOUR...THEN THIS WILL
LIKELY GET DROPPED BEFORE EXPIRING.

ONCE THIS FIRST BATCH OF RAIN DEPARTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...THERE
WILL BE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY...UNTIL A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE LAPSE RATES STEEPEN UP
QUITE A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...AND HAVE INCLUDED SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER...WITH THE NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 40S FOR MOST TODAY...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY HOLDING OFF FOR MOST PLACES UNTIL DUSK OR SLIGHTLY
THEREAFTER. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AS THE COLUMN COOLS QUICKER ALOFT.

LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS WILL KICK IN TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY DEEPENS
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES ROTATE THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY. STORM TOTALS STILL LOOK TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 4
INCHES...WITH 4 TO 6 INCHES FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE
SOUTHEAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TAKING A NOSE DIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
READINGS FALLING BELOW FREEZING BY THIS EVENING...AND THEN INTO
THE 20S THROUGH TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 618 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE SIMILAR EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THEN BUT
DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY DURING THE LAST 72 HOURS OR SO OF THE
FORECAST. BROAD MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL IMPULSES
ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE. MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE
A LATE WEEK SHORTWAVE THAT MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY
WEATHER FOR THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS BOTH RUNS THE 0Z ECMWF
AND GFS HAVE DIVERGED FROM THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS OF 24 HOUR
BACK. THE 0/06Z GFS HAS TRENDED FASTER...MUCH WEAKER AND FURTHER
SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS...HARDLY PRODUCING ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE 0Z ECMWF IS
SLOWER AND STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM...CARRYING A DEPENING SFC
WAVE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. CONSEQUENTLY THE ECMWF
ADVERTISES A MORE FAVORABLE PATH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL AND CURRENTLY ADVERTISES SUCH. HOWEVER...OVERALL
CONFIDENCE WILL CONTINUE TO RUN LOW WITH EITHER SOLUTION UNTIL
THERE IS BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 836 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

THE PASSING COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT TEMPORARY IFR OR WORSE
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE
AN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR/VFR BEHIND THE INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY...BEFORE CEILINGS DROP OFF ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. THERE
MAY EVEN BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AT TIMES. INCOMING COLDER AIR WILL
THEN CHANGE ANY RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO ALL SNOW SHOWERS TOWARDS
DUSK...WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL AVERAGE AT 5 TO 10 KTS OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-111-
114-116.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ088-118-
120.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ104-106>110-112-113-115-117-119.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR KYZ087.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN





000
FXUS63 KJKL 081336 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
836 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 836 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE AREA IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY ALREADY MOVING IN FROM
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE
FREEZING FOR MOST LOCATIONS AT THIS POINT...SO HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN IN THE
EAST. SNOW HAS BEEN MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...SO HAVE ALLOWED FOR MORE OF A SNOW MENTION THROUGH THE
REST OF THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RECOVER TO THE UPPER
30S TO AROUND 40...ALTHOUGH DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE SHOWERS
AND THICKER CLOUDS MOVE BACK IN...THESE HIGHS MIGHT BE A BIT
GENEROUS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
VALLEY TEMPERATURES HAVE RESPONDED IN THE PAST HOUR...HOWEVER
BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP RUNS...AM STILL CONCERNED FOR
SOME SHELTERED LOCATIONS IN THE EAST POTENTIALLY ENDING UP WITH A
LIGHT GLAZE. AS SUCH...HAVE HOISTED A SHORT FUSE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL. IF THE BETTER WARMING
TRENDS CONTINUE LIKE THEY HAVE IN THE PAST HOUR...THEN THIS WILL
LIKELY GET DROPPED BEFORE EXPIRING.

ONCE THIS FIRST BATCH OF RAIN DEPARTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...THERE
WILL BE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY...UNTIL A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE LAPSE RATES STEEPEN UP
QUITE A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...AND HAVE INCLUDED SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER...WITH THE NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 40S FOR MOST TODAY...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY HOLDING OFF FOR MOST PLACES UNTIL DUSK OR SLIGHTLY
THEREAFTER. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AS THE COLUMN COOLS QUICKER ALOFT.

LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS WILL KICK IN TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY DEEPENS
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES ROTATE THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY. STORM TOTALS STILL LOOK TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 4
INCHES...WITH 4 TO 6 INCHES FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE
SOUTHEAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TAKING A NOSE DIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
READINGS FALLING BELOW FREEZING BY THIS EVENING...AND THEN INTO
THE 20S THROUGH TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 618 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE SIMILAR EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THEN BUT
DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY DURING THE LAST 72 HOURS OR SO OF THE
FORECAST. BROAD MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL IMPULSES
ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE. MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE
A LATE WEEK SHORTWAVE THAT MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY
WEATHER FOR THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS BOTH RUNS THE 0Z ECMWF
AND GFS HAVE DIVERGED FROM THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS OF 24 HOUR
BACK. THE 0/06Z GFS HAS TRENDED FASTER...MUCH WEAKER AND FURTHER
SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS...HARDLY PRODUCING ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE 0Z ECMWF IS
SLOWER AND STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM...CARRYING A DEPENING SFC
WAVE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. CONSEQUENTLY THE ECMWF
ADVERTISES A MORE FAVORABLE PATH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL AND CURRENTLY ADVERTISES SUCH. HOWEVER...OVERALL
CONFIDENCE WILL CONTINUE TO RUN LOW WITH EITHER SOLUTION UNTIL
THERE IS BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 836 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

THE PASSING COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT TEMPORARY IFR OR WORSE
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE
AN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR/VFR BEHIND THE INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY...BEFORE CEILINGS DROP OFF ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. THERE
MAY EVEN BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AT TIMES. INCOMING COLDER AIR WILL
THEN CHANGE ANY RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO ALL SNOW SHOWERS TOWARDS
DUSK...WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL AVERAGE AT 5 TO 10 KTS OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-111-
114-116.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ088-118-
120.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ104-106>110-112-113-115-117-119.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR KYZ087.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN




000
FXUS63 KJKL 081336 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
836 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 836 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE AREA IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY ALREADY MOVING IN FROM
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE
FREEZING FOR MOST LOCATIONS AT THIS POINT...SO HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN IN THE
EAST. SNOW HAS BEEN MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...SO HAVE ALLOWED FOR MORE OF A SNOW MENTION THROUGH THE
REST OF THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RECOVER TO THE UPPER
30S TO AROUND 40...ALTHOUGH DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE SHOWERS
AND THICKER CLOUDS MOVE BACK IN...THESE HIGHS MIGHT BE A BIT
GENEROUS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
VALLEY TEMPERATURES HAVE RESPONDED IN THE PAST HOUR...HOWEVER
BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP RUNS...AM STILL CONCERNED FOR
SOME SHELTERED LOCATIONS IN THE EAST POTENTIALLY ENDING UP WITH A
LIGHT GLAZE. AS SUCH...HAVE HOISTED A SHORT FUSE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL. IF THE BETTER WARMING
TRENDS CONTINUE LIKE THEY HAVE IN THE PAST HOUR...THEN THIS WILL
LIKELY GET DROPPED BEFORE EXPIRING.

ONCE THIS FIRST BATCH OF RAIN DEPARTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...THERE
WILL BE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY...UNTIL A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE LAPSE RATES STEEPEN UP
QUITE A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...AND HAVE INCLUDED SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER...WITH THE NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 40S FOR MOST TODAY...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY HOLDING OFF FOR MOST PLACES UNTIL DUSK OR SLIGHTLY
THEREAFTER. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AS THE COLUMN COOLS QUICKER ALOFT.

LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS WILL KICK IN TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY DEEPENS
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES ROTATE THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY. STORM TOTALS STILL LOOK TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 4
INCHES...WITH 4 TO 6 INCHES FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE
SOUTHEAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TAKING A NOSE DIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
READINGS FALLING BELOW FREEZING BY THIS EVENING...AND THEN INTO
THE 20S THROUGH TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 618 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE SIMILAR EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THEN BUT
DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY DURING THE LAST 72 HOURS OR SO OF THE
FORECAST. BROAD MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL IMPULSES
ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE. MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE
A LATE WEEK SHORTWAVE THAT MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY
WEATHER FOR THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS BOTH RUNS THE 0Z ECMWF
AND GFS HAVE DIVERGED FROM THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS OF 24 HOUR
BACK. THE 0/06Z GFS HAS TRENDED FASTER...MUCH WEAKER AND FURTHER
SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS...HARDLY PRODUCING ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE 0Z ECMWF IS
SLOWER AND STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM...CARRYING A DEPENING SFC
WAVE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. CONSEQUENTLY THE ECMWF
ADVERTISES A MORE FAVORABLE PATH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL AND CURRENTLY ADVERTISES SUCH. HOWEVER...OVERALL
CONFIDENCE WILL CONTINUE TO RUN LOW WITH EITHER SOLUTION UNTIL
THERE IS BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 836 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

THE PASSING COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT TEMPORARY IFR OR WORSE
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE
AN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR/VFR BEHIND THE INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY...BEFORE CEILINGS DROP OFF ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. THERE
MAY EVEN BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AT TIMES. INCOMING COLDER AIR WILL
THEN CHANGE ANY RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO ALL SNOW SHOWERS TOWARDS
DUSK...WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL AVERAGE AT 5 TO 10 KTS OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-111-
114-116.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ088-118-
120.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ104-106>110-112-113-115-117-119.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR KYZ087.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN





000
FXUS63 KJKL 081118
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
618 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST OUT AHEAD OF A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH. VALLEY TEMPERATURES HAVE RESPONDED IN THE PAST
HOUR...HOWEVER BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP RUNS...AM STILL
CONCERNED FOR SOME SHELTERED LOCATIONS IN THE EAST POTENTIALLY
ENDING UP WITH A LIGHT GLAZE. AS SUCH...HAVE HOISTED A SHORT FUSE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL. IF THE
BETTER WARMING TRENDS CONTINUE LIKE THEY HAVE IN THE PAST
HOUR...THEN THIS WILL LIKELY GET DROPPED BEFORE EXPIRING.

ONCE THIS FIRST BATCH OF RAIN DEPARTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...THERE
WILL BE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY...UNTIL A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE LAPSE RATES STEEPEN UP
QUITE A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...AND HAVE INCLUDED SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER...WITH THE NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 40S FOR MOST TODAY...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY HOLDING OFF FOR MOST PLACES UNTIL DUSK OR SLIGHTLY
THEREAFTER. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AS THE COLUMN COOLS QUICKER ALOFT.

LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS WILL KICK IN TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY DEEPENS
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES ROTATE THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY. STORM TOTALS STILL LOOK TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 4
INCHES...WITH 4 TO 6 INCHES FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE
SOUTHEAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TAKING A NOSE DIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
READINGS FALLING BELOW FREEZING BY THIS EVENING...AND THEN INTO
THE 20S THROUGH TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 618 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE SIMILAR EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THEN BUT
DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY DURING THE LAST 72 HOURS OR SO OF THE
FORECAST. BROAD MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL IMPULSES
ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE. MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE
A LATE WEEK SHORTWAVE THAT MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY
WEATHER FOR THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS BOTH RUNS THE 0Z ECMWF
AND GFS HAVE DIVERGED FROM THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS OF 24 HOUR
BACK. THE 0/06Z GFS HAS TRENDED FASTER...MUCH WEAKER AND FURTHER
SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS...HARDLY PRODUCING ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE 0Z ECMWF IS
SLOWER AND STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM...CARRYING A DEPENING SFC
WAVE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. CONSEQUENTLY THE ECMWF
ADVERTISES A MORE FAVORABLE PATH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL AND CURRENTLY ADVERTISES SUCH. HOWEVER...OVERALL
CONFIDENCE WILL CONTINUE TO RUN LOW WITH EITHER SOLUTION UNTIL
THERE IS BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 210 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING MAINLY RAIN TO THE AREA FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH DAWN. THE RAIN BAND WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND DISSIPATE THROUGH 15Z...BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS FOR THE AFTERNOON AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION. CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES
WILL DROP DOWN TO MVFR WITHIN THE MORE SUSTAINED RAIN INITIALLY.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY RAISE UP TOWARDS
15Z...BEFORE GRADUALLY DROPPING DOWN TO MVFR ONCE AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON. THERE MAY EVEN BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AT TIMES.
INCOMING COLDER AIR WILL THEN CHANGE ANY RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW
SHOWERS TOWARDS DUSK...WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-111-
114-116.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ088-118-
120.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ104-106>110-112-113-115-117-119.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ104-
106>109-111-112-114.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR KYZ087.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN




000
FXUS63 KJKL 081118
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
618 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST OUT AHEAD OF A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH. VALLEY TEMPERATURES HAVE RESPONDED IN THE PAST
HOUR...HOWEVER BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP RUNS...AM STILL
CONCERNED FOR SOME SHELTERED LOCATIONS IN THE EAST POTENTIALLY
ENDING UP WITH A LIGHT GLAZE. AS SUCH...HAVE HOISTED A SHORT FUSE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL. IF THE
BETTER WARMING TRENDS CONTINUE LIKE THEY HAVE IN THE PAST
HOUR...THEN THIS WILL LIKELY GET DROPPED BEFORE EXPIRING.

ONCE THIS FIRST BATCH OF RAIN DEPARTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...THERE
WILL BE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY...UNTIL A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE LAPSE RATES STEEPEN UP
QUITE A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...AND HAVE INCLUDED SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER...WITH THE NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 40S FOR MOST TODAY...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY HOLDING OFF FOR MOST PLACES UNTIL DUSK OR SLIGHTLY
THEREAFTER. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AS THE COLUMN COOLS QUICKER ALOFT.

LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS WILL KICK IN TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY DEEPENS
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES ROTATE THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY. STORM TOTALS STILL LOOK TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 4
INCHES...WITH 4 TO 6 INCHES FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE
SOUTHEAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TAKING A NOSE DIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
READINGS FALLING BELOW FREEZING BY THIS EVENING...AND THEN INTO
THE 20S THROUGH TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 618 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE SIMILAR EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THEN BUT
DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY DURING THE LAST 72 HOURS OR SO OF THE
FORECAST. BROAD MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL IMPULSES
ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE. MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE
A LATE WEEK SHORTWAVE THAT MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY
WEATHER FOR THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS BOTH RUNS THE 0Z ECMWF
AND GFS HAVE DIVERGED FROM THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS OF 24 HOUR
BACK. THE 0/06Z GFS HAS TRENDED FASTER...MUCH WEAKER AND FURTHER
SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS...HARDLY PRODUCING ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE 0Z ECMWF IS
SLOWER AND STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM...CARRYING A DEPENING SFC
WAVE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. CONSEQUENTLY THE ECMWF
ADVERTISES A MORE FAVORABLE PATH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL AND CURRENTLY ADVERTISES SUCH. HOWEVER...OVERALL
CONFIDENCE WILL CONTINUE TO RUN LOW WITH EITHER SOLUTION UNTIL
THERE IS BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 210 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING MAINLY RAIN TO THE AREA FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH DAWN. THE RAIN BAND WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND DISSIPATE THROUGH 15Z...BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS FOR THE AFTERNOON AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION. CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES
WILL DROP DOWN TO MVFR WITHIN THE MORE SUSTAINED RAIN INITIALLY.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY RAISE UP TOWARDS
15Z...BEFORE GRADUALLY DROPPING DOWN TO MVFR ONCE AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON. THERE MAY EVEN BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AT TIMES.
INCOMING COLDER AIR WILL THEN CHANGE ANY RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW
SHOWERS TOWARDS DUSK...WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-111-
114-116.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ088-118-
120.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ104-106>110-112-113-115-117-119.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ104-
106>109-111-112-114.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR KYZ087.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN





000
FXUS63 KJKL 081118
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
618 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST OUT AHEAD OF A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH. VALLEY TEMPERATURES HAVE RESPONDED IN THE PAST
HOUR...HOWEVER BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP RUNS...AM STILL
CONCERNED FOR SOME SHELTERED LOCATIONS IN THE EAST POTENTIALLY
ENDING UP WITH A LIGHT GLAZE. AS SUCH...HAVE HOISTED A SHORT FUSE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL. IF THE
BETTER WARMING TRENDS CONTINUE LIKE THEY HAVE IN THE PAST
HOUR...THEN THIS WILL LIKELY GET DROPPED BEFORE EXPIRING.

ONCE THIS FIRST BATCH OF RAIN DEPARTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...THERE
WILL BE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY...UNTIL A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE LAPSE RATES STEEPEN UP
QUITE A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...AND HAVE INCLUDED SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER...WITH THE NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 40S FOR MOST TODAY...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY HOLDING OFF FOR MOST PLACES UNTIL DUSK OR SLIGHTLY
THEREAFTER. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AS THE COLUMN COOLS QUICKER ALOFT.

LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS WILL KICK IN TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY DEEPENS
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES ROTATE THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY. STORM TOTALS STILL LOOK TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 4
INCHES...WITH 4 TO 6 INCHES FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE
SOUTHEAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TAKING A NOSE DIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
READINGS FALLING BELOW FREEZING BY THIS EVENING...AND THEN INTO
THE 20S THROUGH TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 618 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE SIMILAR EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THEN BUT
DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY DURING THE LAST 72 HOURS OR SO OF THE
FORECAST. BROAD MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL IMPULSES
ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE. MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE
A LATE WEEK SHORTWAVE THAT MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY
WEATHER FOR THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS BOTH RUNS THE 0Z ECMWF
AND GFS HAVE DIVERGED FROM THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS OF 24 HOUR
BACK. THE 0/06Z GFS HAS TRENDED FASTER...MUCH WEAKER AND FURTHER
SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS...HARDLY PRODUCING ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE 0Z ECMWF IS
SLOWER AND STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM...CARRYING A DEPENING SFC
WAVE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. CONSEQUENTLY THE ECMWF
ADVERTISES A MORE FAVORABLE PATH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL AND CURRENTLY ADVERTISES SUCH. HOWEVER...OVERALL
CONFIDENCE WILL CONTINUE TO RUN LOW WITH EITHER SOLUTION UNTIL
THERE IS BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 210 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING MAINLY RAIN TO THE AREA FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH DAWN. THE RAIN BAND WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND DISSIPATE THROUGH 15Z...BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS FOR THE AFTERNOON AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION. CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES
WILL DROP DOWN TO MVFR WITHIN THE MORE SUSTAINED RAIN INITIALLY.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY RAISE UP TOWARDS
15Z...BEFORE GRADUALLY DROPPING DOWN TO MVFR ONCE AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON. THERE MAY EVEN BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AT TIMES.
INCOMING COLDER AIR WILL THEN CHANGE ANY RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW
SHOWERS TOWARDS DUSK...WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-111-
114-116.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ088-118-
120.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ104-106>110-112-113-115-117-119.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ104-
106>109-111-112-114.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR KYZ087.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN





000
FXUS63 KJKL 080957
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
457 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST OUT AHEAD OF A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH. VALLEY TEMPERATURES HAVE RESPONDED IN THE PAST
HOUR...HOWEVER BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP RUNS...AM STILL
CONCERNED FOR SOME SHELTERED LOCATIONS IN THE EAST POTENTIALLY
ENDING UP WITH A LIGHT GLAZE. AS SUCH...HAVE HOISTED A SHORT FUSE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL. IF THE
BETTER WARMING TRENDS CONTINUE LIKE THEY HAVE IN THE PAST
HOUR...THEN THIS WILL LIKELY GET DROPPED BEFORE EXPIRING.

ONCE THIS FIRST BATCH OF RAIN DEPARTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...THERE
WILL BE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY...UNTIL A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE LAPSE RATES STEEPEN UP
QUITE A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...AND HAVE INCLUDED SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER...WITH THE NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 40S FOR MOST TODAY...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY HOLDING OFF FOR MOST PLACES UNTIL DUSK OR SLIGHTLY
THEREAFTER. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AS THE COLUMN COOLS QUICKER ALOFT.

LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS WILL KICK IN TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY DEEPENS
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES ROTATE THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY. STORM TOTALS STILL LOOK TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 4
INCHES...WITH 4 TO 6 INCHES FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE
SOUTHEAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TAKING A NOSE DIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
READINGS FALLING BELOW FREEZING BY THIS EVENING...AND THEN INTO
THE 20S THROUGH TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 210 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING MAINLY RAIN TO THE AREA FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH DAWN. THE RAIN BAND WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND DISSIPATE THROUGH 15Z...BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS FOR THE AFTERNOON AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION. CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES
WILL DROP DOWN TO MVFR WITHIN THE MORE SUSTAINED RAIN INITIALLY.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY RAISE UP TOWARDS
15Z...BEFORE GRADUALLY DROPPING DOWN TO MVFR ONCE AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON. THERE MAY EVEN BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AT TIMES.
INCOMING COLDER AIR WILL THEN CHANGE ANY RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW
SHOWERS TOWARDS DUSK...WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-111-
114-116.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ088-118-
120.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ104-106>110-112-113-115-117-119.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ104-
106>109-111-112-114.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR KYZ087.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN





000
FXUS63 KJKL 080710 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
210 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 210 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

MOST OF THE EASTERN VALLEYS ARE STARTING TO CLIMB SLIGHTLY FROM
THERE MIDNIGHT LOWS...ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER
20S...AS THICKER CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN INTERMITTENT THUS FAR. THIS
SHOULD CHANGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT...AS ECHOES ARE
FILLING IN OUT WEST...WITH SOME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION STARTING.
HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE HRRR/RAP TO TIME POPS IN...WITH THE
HIGHER PROBABILITIES LIKELY BEING MORE CONFINED TO THE FAR WEST
THROUGH 12Z...AND THEN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA...AS THE
BAND LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND DIMINISHES. THIS WILL BODE
BETTER FOR THE FAR EASTERN VALLEYS...WHERE MEASURABLE QPF LOOKS
LESS LIKELY WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING.
WILL BE KEEPING A SHARP EYE ON THE PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE
TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 840 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

EASTERN VALLEYS HAVE ALREADY REACHED THE LOWER 30S AND STILL
LIKELY HAVE SOME TO FALL IN THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS. WITH THIS IN
MIND...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE SOME FREEZING RAIN FOR
THE COLDER EASTERN VALLEYS THAT ARE A BIT MORE SHELTERED AND WON`T
LIKELY RECOVER IN TIME BEFORE PRECIPITATION SPREADS IN. STILL
LOOKING LIKE PRIMARILY RAIN AS WE KEEP A SHALLOW LAYER OF WARM AIR
JUST OFF THE VALLEY FLOORS. COULD STILL SEE SOME SNOW MIX IN ON
THE RIDGES...BUT SHOULD BE INCONSEQUENTIAL AS TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AND LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

VALLEYS ARE DROPPING QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH THE QUICKSAND
MESONET STATION ALREADY SITTING IN THE LOWER 40S. CLEARLY GUIDANCE
IS NOT CAPTURING THIS TEMPERATURE FALL THIS EVENING...SO HAVE
LOWERED TEMPERATURES INTO THE VALLEYS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EVENING...GENERALLY DOWN TO 30 TO 32. WE MAY NEED TO GO FURTHER
YET...BUT THIS WILL BE DETERMINED BY HOW FAST CLOUDS CAN MOVE IN
LATER THIS EVENING. LATEST HI RES MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW MOST
OF WHAT MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT BEING IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THE
QUESTION REMAINS HOW FAST VALLEYS COME BACK UP AND THUS IF WE CAN
AVOID A FREEZING RAIN IN A FEW OF OUR COLDER VALLEYS. HIGHER
TERRAIN IS STILL ON TRACK FOR SNOW...BUT INITIAL DRY AIR MAY CUT
INTO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LATE TONIGHT. THUS...PROBABLY LOOKING
FOR UNDER AN INCH IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM ANYTHING THAT FALLS
LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 514 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS DEVELOPING AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH
DROPS SOUTHEAST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A VERY LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE
PERIOD. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE JKL
FORECAST AREA MONDAY MORNING. MODELS AGREE ON PRECIP DEVELOPING
AND MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW LATE TONIGHT...AND
TEMPORARILY EXITING TO THE EAST ON MONDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL TEMPS
ARE MARGINAL FOR RAIN VS SNOW...AND A MIX IS FORECAST FOR MOST
AREAS. HOWEVER...HIGHER ELEVATIONS NEAR THE VA BORDER WILL BE
BELOW FREEZING AND SEE ALL SNOW. WITH ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TO
START THERE ON MONDAY...HAVE ISSUED OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
AT THIS POINT. THERE IS CONCERN THAT DECOUPLED VALLEYS WILL FALL
BELOW FREEZING AND NOT RECOVER BEFORE PRECIP BEGINS...AND THAT
WARMER AIR JUST ABOVE THE VALLEYS WILL RESULT IN FREEZING RAIN AT
THE SURFACE. THE PROBABILITY OF EVERYTHING COMING TOGETHER FOR
THIS IS FAIRLY LOW...AND DID NOT INCLUDE IT IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.

PRECIP SHOULD MOVE BACK IN FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW SIGNIFICANT COOLING ALOFT AS THIS
ROUND OF PRECIP DEVELOPS...WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES RESULTING IN A
DEEP LAYER. CONVECTIVE CURRENTS MAY EXTEND BEYOND THE -20C
LEVEL...AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING IN ALL AREAS MONDAY
EVENING. WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING AT TIMES...THE ADVISORY
EXPANDS TO COVER THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA AT THAT POINT.
ACCUMULATIONS IN ANY GIVEN PERIOD ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE ALL THAT
GREAT..BUT THE PROLONGED NATURE OF THE EVENT WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD
TO ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 514 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH DEEP AND BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
SETTING UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
THE WEEK. THIS FLOW WILL AID IN BRINGING COLD AIR IN FROM TO NW DOWN
INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEYS THROUGH THE WEEK. NOW THIS BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW MEANS THAT WE ARE LOOKING AT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED ENHANCEMENTS FROM TIME TO TIME. THIS IN LIES BIGGEST
CHALLENGE THAT REMAINS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE WHERE
AND WHEN DO THE PIECES OF ENERGY MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. THESE WILL
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL ENHANCEMENTS TO THE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE
START OF THE PERIOD. THAT SAID...THE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER WOULD
SUGGEST SOME SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE BASED ON SOUNDINGS WITH LAPSE RATES ABOVE 6 C/KM IN BOTH
THE LOW AND MID LEVELS. THEREFORE WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS IN THE FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF TUESDAY. THESE SNOW SQUALLS COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF SNOW DEPENDING ON WHERE THEY OCCUR AND IF THEY
REPEAT OVER THE SAME AREAS. EXPECT HIGHER SNOW RATIOS AND FLUFF
FACTOR FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...GIVEN THE COLD AIR IN PLACE THROUGH
THE ENTIRE COLUMN AND THE AT TIMES CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE SNOW.

THE DEEPER THOUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO FINALLY SWING EAST AS WE MOVE
INTO THURSDAY...AND WILL HELP CUTOFF THE BARRAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS
SEEN IN THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE BY FRIDAY...HOWEVER RIGHT NOW KEEPING MOST THE
PRECIP ACROSS THE SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA BASED ON THE MODEL BLEND
WITH FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH
PHASING OF THE TROUGH THAT MOVES EAST WITH A CLOSED LOW UPPER LOW
DIVING SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE
BUILDING A RIDGE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE CENTRAL US...WHICH HAMPERS A
DEEPER TROUGH SETTING UP FURTHER SOUTH IN THE NE US.  THESE
DIFFERENCES WILL HAVE GREATEST IMPLICATIONS OF TEMPERATURES TOWARD
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OVERALL WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COLDER
END SINCE GFS HAS CONTINUED TO TREND COLDER OVER THE PAST 4 RUNS
BASED ON THE 850MB TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 210 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING MAINLY RAIN TO THE AREA FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH DAWN. THE RAIN BAND WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND DISSIPATE THROUGH 15Z...BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS FOR THE AFTERNOON AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION. CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES
WILL DROP DOWN TO MVFR WITHIN THE MORE SUSTAINED RAIN INITIALLY.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY RAISE UP TOWARDS
15Z...BEFORE GRADUALLY DROPPING DOWN TO MVFR ONCE AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON. THERE MAY EVEN BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AT TIMES.
INCOMING COLDER AIR WILL THEN CHANGE ANY RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW
SHOWERS TOWARDS DUSK...WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-111-
114-116.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ088-118-120.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ104-106>110-112-113-115-117-119.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR KYZ087.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN




000
FXUS63 KJKL 080710 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
210 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 210 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

MOST OF THE EASTERN VALLEYS ARE STARTING TO CLIMB SLIGHTLY FROM
THERE MIDNIGHT LOWS...ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER
20S...AS THICKER CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN INTERMITTENT THUS FAR. THIS
SHOULD CHANGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT...AS ECHOES ARE
FILLING IN OUT WEST...WITH SOME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION STARTING.
HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE HRRR/RAP TO TIME POPS IN...WITH THE
HIGHER PROBABILITIES LIKELY BEING MORE CONFINED TO THE FAR WEST
THROUGH 12Z...AND THEN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA...AS THE
BAND LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND DIMINISHES. THIS WILL BODE
BETTER FOR THE FAR EASTERN VALLEYS...WHERE MEASURABLE QPF LOOKS
LESS LIKELY WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING.
WILL BE KEEPING A SHARP EYE ON THE PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE
TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 840 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

EASTERN VALLEYS HAVE ALREADY REACHED THE LOWER 30S AND STILL
LIKELY HAVE SOME TO FALL IN THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS. WITH THIS IN
MIND...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE SOME FREEZING RAIN FOR
THE COLDER EASTERN VALLEYS THAT ARE A BIT MORE SHELTERED AND WON`T
LIKELY RECOVER IN TIME BEFORE PRECIPITATION SPREADS IN. STILL
LOOKING LIKE PRIMARILY RAIN AS WE KEEP A SHALLOW LAYER OF WARM AIR
JUST OFF THE VALLEY FLOORS. COULD STILL SEE SOME SNOW MIX IN ON
THE RIDGES...BUT SHOULD BE INCONSEQUENTIAL AS TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AND LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

VALLEYS ARE DROPPING QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH THE QUICKSAND
MESONET STATION ALREADY SITTING IN THE LOWER 40S. CLEARLY GUIDANCE
IS NOT CAPTURING THIS TEMPERATURE FALL THIS EVENING...SO HAVE
LOWERED TEMPERATURES INTO THE VALLEYS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EVENING...GENERALLY DOWN TO 30 TO 32. WE MAY NEED TO GO FURTHER
YET...BUT THIS WILL BE DETERMINED BY HOW FAST CLOUDS CAN MOVE IN
LATER THIS EVENING. LATEST HI RES MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW MOST
OF WHAT MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT BEING IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THE
QUESTION REMAINS HOW FAST VALLEYS COME BACK UP AND THUS IF WE CAN
AVOID A FREEZING RAIN IN A FEW OF OUR COLDER VALLEYS. HIGHER
TERRAIN IS STILL ON TRACK FOR SNOW...BUT INITIAL DRY AIR MAY CUT
INTO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LATE TONIGHT. THUS...PROBABLY LOOKING
FOR UNDER AN INCH IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM ANYTHING THAT FALLS
LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 514 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS DEVELOPING AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH
DROPS SOUTHEAST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A VERY LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE
PERIOD. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE JKL
FORECAST AREA MONDAY MORNING. MODELS AGREE ON PRECIP DEVELOPING
AND MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW LATE TONIGHT...AND
TEMPORARILY EXITING TO THE EAST ON MONDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL TEMPS
ARE MARGINAL FOR RAIN VS SNOW...AND A MIX IS FORECAST FOR MOST
AREAS. HOWEVER...HIGHER ELEVATIONS NEAR THE VA BORDER WILL BE
BELOW FREEZING AND SEE ALL SNOW. WITH ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TO
START THERE ON MONDAY...HAVE ISSUED OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
AT THIS POINT. THERE IS CONCERN THAT DECOUPLED VALLEYS WILL FALL
BELOW FREEZING AND NOT RECOVER BEFORE PRECIP BEGINS...AND THAT
WARMER AIR JUST ABOVE THE VALLEYS WILL RESULT IN FREEZING RAIN AT
THE SURFACE. THE PROBABILITY OF EVERYTHING COMING TOGETHER FOR
THIS IS FAIRLY LOW...AND DID NOT INCLUDE IT IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.

PRECIP SHOULD MOVE BACK IN FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW SIGNIFICANT COOLING ALOFT AS THIS
ROUND OF PRECIP DEVELOPS...WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES RESULTING IN A
DEEP LAYER. CONVECTIVE CURRENTS MAY EXTEND BEYOND THE -20C
LEVEL...AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING IN ALL AREAS MONDAY
EVENING. WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING AT TIMES...THE ADVISORY
EXPANDS TO COVER THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA AT THAT POINT.
ACCUMULATIONS IN ANY GIVEN PERIOD ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE ALL THAT
GREAT..BUT THE PROLONGED NATURE OF THE EVENT WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD
TO ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 514 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH DEEP AND BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
SETTING UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
THE WEEK. THIS FLOW WILL AID IN BRINGING COLD AIR IN FROM TO NW DOWN
INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEYS THROUGH THE WEEK. NOW THIS BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW MEANS THAT WE ARE LOOKING AT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED ENHANCEMENTS FROM TIME TO TIME. THIS IN LIES BIGGEST
CHALLENGE THAT REMAINS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE WHERE
AND WHEN DO THE PIECES OF ENERGY MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. THESE WILL
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL ENHANCEMENTS TO THE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE
START OF THE PERIOD. THAT SAID...THE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER WOULD
SUGGEST SOME SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE BASED ON SOUNDINGS WITH LAPSE RATES ABOVE 6 C/KM IN BOTH
THE LOW AND MID LEVELS. THEREFORE WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS IN THE FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF TUESDAY. THESE SNOW SQUALLS COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF SNOW DEPENDING ON WHERE THEY OCCUR AND IF THEY
REPEAT OVER THE SAME AREAS. EXPECT HIGHER SNOW RATIOS AND FLUFF
FACTOR FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...GIVEN THE COLD AIR IN PLACE THROUGH
THE ENTIRE COLUMN AND THE AT TIMES CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE SNOW.

THE DEEPER THOUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO FINALLY SWING EAST AS WE MOVE
INTO THURSDAY...AND WILL HELP CUTOFF THE BARRAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS
SEEN IN THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE BY FRIDAY...HOWEVER RIGHT NOW KEEPING MOST THE
PRECIP ACROSS THE SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA BASED ON THE MODEL BLEND
WITH FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH
PHASING OF THE TROUGH THAT MOVES EAST WITH A CLOSED LOW UPPER LOW
DIVING SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE
BUILDING A RIDGE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE CENTRAL US...WHICH HAMPERS A
DEEPER TROUGH SETTING UP FURTHER SOUTH IN THE NE US.  THESE
DIFFERENCES WILL HAVE GREATEST IMPLICATIONS OF TEMPERATURES TOWARD
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OVERALL WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COLDER
END SINCE GFS HAS CONTINUED TO TREND COLDER OVER THE PAST 4 RUNS
BASED ON THE 850MB TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 210 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING MAINLY RAIN TO THE AREA FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH DAWN. THE RAIN BAND WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND DISSIPATE THROUGH 15Z...BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS FOR THE AFTERNOON AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION. CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES
WILL DROP DOWN TO MVFR WITHIN THE MORE SUSTAINED RAIN INITIALLY.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY RAISE UP TOWARDS
15Z...BEFORE GRADUALLY DROPPING DOWN TO MVFR ONCE AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON. THERE MAY EVEN BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AT TIMES.
INCOMING COLDER AIR WILL THEN CHANGE ANY RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW
SHOWERS TOWARDS DUSK...WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-111-
114-116.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ088-118-120.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ104-106>110-112-113-115-117-119.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR KYZ087.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN





000
FXUS63 KJKL 080140
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
840 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 840 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

EASTERN VALLEYS HAVE ALREADY REACHED THE LOWER 30S AND STILL
LIKELY HAVE SOME TO FALL IN THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS. WITH THIS IN
MIND...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE SOME FREEZING RAIN FOR
THE COLDER EASTERN VALLEYS THAT ARE A BIT MORE SHELTERED AND WON`T
LIKELY RECOVER IN TIME BEFORE PRECIPITATION SPREADS IN. STILL
LOOKING LIKE PRIMARILY RAIN AS WE KEEP A SHALLOW LAYER OF WARM AIR
JUST OFF THE VALLEY FLOORS. COULD STILL SEE SOME SNOW MIX IN ON
THE RIDGES...BUT SHOULD BE INCONSEQUENTIAL AS TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AND LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

VALLEYS ARE DROPPING QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH THE QUICKSAND
MESONET STATION ALREADY SITTING IN THE LOWER 40S. CLEARLY GUIDANCE
IS NOT CAPTURING THIS TEMPERATURE FALL THIS EVENING...SO HAVE
LOWERED TEMPERATURES INTO THE VALLEYS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EVENING...GENERALLY DOWN TO 30 TO 32. WE MAY NEED TO GO FURTHER
YET...BUT THIS WILL BE DETERMINED BY HOW FAST CLOUDS CAN MOVE IN
LATER THIS EVENING. LATEST HI RES MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW MOST
OF WHAT MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT BEING IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THE
QUESTION REMAINS HOW FAST VALLEYS COME BACK UP AND THUS IF WE CAN
AVOID A FREEZING RAIN IN A FEW OF OUR COLDER VALLEYS. HIGHER
TERRAIN IS STILL ON TRACK FOR SNOW...BUT INITIAL DRY AIR MAY CUT
INTO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LATE TONIGHT. THUS...PROBABLY LOOKING
FOR UNDER AN INCH IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM ANYTHING THAT FALLS
LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 514 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS DEVELOPING AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH
DROPS SOUTHEAST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A VERY LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE
PERIOD. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE JKL
FORECAST AREA MONDAY MORNING. MODELS AGREE ON PRECIP DEVELOPING
AND MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW LATE TONIGHT...AND
TEMPORARILY EXITING TO THE EAST ON MONDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL TEMPS
ARE MARGINAL FOR RAIN VS SNOW...AND A MIX IS FORECAST FOR MOST
AREAS. HOWEVER...HIGHER ELEVATIONS NEAR THE VA BORDER WILL BE
BELOW FREEZING AND SEE ALL SNOW. WITH ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TO
START THERE ON MONDAY...HAVE ISSUED OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
AT THIS POINT. THERE IS CONCERN THAT DECOUPLED VALLEYS WILL FALL
BELOW FREEZING AND NOT RECOVER BEFORE PRECIP BEGINS...AND THAT
WARMER AIR JUST ABOVE THE VALLEYS WILL RESULT IN FREEZING RAIN AT
THE SURFACE. THE PROBABILITY OF EVERYTHING COMING TOGETHER FOR
THIS IS FAIRLY LOW...AND DID NOT INCLUDE IT IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.

PRECIP SHOULD MOVE BACK IN FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW SIGNIFICANT COOLING ALOFT AS THIS
ROUND OF PRECIP DEVELOPS...WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES RESULTING IN A
DEEP LAYER. CONVECTIVE CURRENTS MAY EXTEND BEYOND THE -20C
LEVEL...AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING IN ALL AREAS MONDAY
EVENING. WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING AT TIMES...THE ADVISORY
EXPANDS TO COVER THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA AT THAT POINT.
ACCUMULATIONS IN ANY GIVEN PERIOD ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE ALL THAT
GREAT..BUT THE PROLONGED NATURE OF THE EVENT WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD
TO ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 514 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH DEEP AND BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
SETTING UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
THE WEEK. THIS FLOW WILL AID IN BRINGING COLD AIR IN FROM TO NW DOWN
INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEYS THROUGH THE WEEK. NOW THIS BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW MEANS THAT WE ARE LOOKING AT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED ENHANCEMENTS FROM TIME TO TIME. THIS IN LIES BIGGEST
CHALLENGE THAT REMAINS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE WHERE
AND WHEN DO THE PIECES OF ENERGY MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. THESE WILL
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL ENHANCEMENTS TO THE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE
START OF THE PERIOD. THAT SAID...THE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER WOULD
SUGGEST SOME SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE BASED ON SOUNDINGS WITH LAPSE RATES ABOVE 6 C/KM IN BOTH
THE LOW AND MID LEVELS. THEREFORE WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS IN THE FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF TUESDAY. THESE SNOW SQUALLS COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF SNOW DEPENDING ON WHERE THEY OCCUR AND IF THEY
REPEAT OVER THE SAME AREAS. EXPECT HIGHER SNOW RATIOS AND FLUFF
FACTOR FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...GIVEN THE COLD AIR IN PLACE THROUGH
THE ENTIRE COLUMN AND THE AT TIMES CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE SNOW.

THE DEEPER THOUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO FINALLY SWING EAST AS WE MOVE
INTO THURSDAY...AND WILL HELP CUTOFF THE BARRAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS
SEEN IN THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE BY FRIDAY...HOWEVER RIGHT NOW KEEPING MOST THE
PRECIP ACROSS THE SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA BASED ON THE MODEL BLEND
WITH FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH
PHASING OF THE TROUGH THAT MOVES EAST WITH A CLOSED LOW UPPER LOW
DIVING SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE
BUILDING A RIDGE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE CENTRAL US...WHICH HAMPERS A
DEEPER TROUGH SETTING UP FURTHER SOUTH IN THE NE US.  THESE
DIFFERENCES WILL HAVE GREATEST IMPLICATIONS OF TEMPERATURES TOWARD
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OVERALL WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COLDER
END SINCE GFS HAS CONTINUED TO TREND COLDER OVER THE PAST 4 RUNS
BASED ON THE 850MB TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR WILL LAST WELL INTO THE NIGHT. AFTER ABOUT 06Z...RAIN AND
MVFR CONDITIONS AND WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST...REACHING THE VA BORDER BY ABOUT 11Z. CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY FALL TO IFR FOR A TIME AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH.
A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY ON MONDAY MORNING...BUT
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD REDEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE COULD EVEN BE A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH THE SECOND ROUND OF PRECIP.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-111-114-116.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY
FOR KYZ088-118-120.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY
FOR KYZ104-106>110-112-113-115-117-119.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
KYZ087.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...KAS





000
FXUS63 KJKL 072356
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
656 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 656 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

VALLEYS ARE DROPPING QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH THE QUICKSAND
MESONET STATION ALREADY SITTING IN THE LOWER 40S. CLEARLY GUIDANCE
IS NOT CAPTURING THIS TEMPERATURE FALL THIS EVENING...SO HAVE
LOWERED TEMPERATURES INTO THE VALLEYS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EVENING...GENERALLY DOWN TO 30 TO 32. WE MAY NEED TO GO FURTHER
YET...BUT THIS WILL BE DETERMINED BY HOW FAST CLOUDS CAN MOVE IN
LATER THIS EVENING. LATEST HI RES MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW MOST
OF WHAT MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT BEING IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THE
QUESTION REMAINS HOW FAST VALLEYS COME BACK UP AND THUS IF WE CAN
AVOID A FREEZING RAIN IN A FEW OF OUR COLDER VALLEYS. HIGHER
TERRAIN IS STILL ON TRACK FOR SNOW...BUT INITIAL DRY AIR MAY CUT
INTO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LATE TONIGHT. THUS...PROBABLY LOOKING
FOR UNDER AN INCH IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM ANYTHING THAT FALLS
LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 514 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS DEVELOPING AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH
DROPS SOUTHEAST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A VERY LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE
PERIOD. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE JKL
FORECAST AREA MONDAY MORNING. MODELS AGREE ON PRECIP DEVELOPING
AND MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW LATE TONIGHT...AND
TEMPORARILY EXITING TO THE EAST ON MONDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL TEMPS
ARE MARGINAL FOR RAIN VS SNOW...AND A MIX IS FORECAST FOR MOST
AREAS. HOWEVER...HIGHER ELEVATIONS NEAR THE VA BORDER WILL BE
BELOW FREEZING AND SEE ALL SNOW. WITH ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TO
START THERE ON MONDAY...HAVE ISSUED OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
AT THIS POINT. THERE IS CONCERN THAT DECOUPLED VALLEYS WILL FALL
BELOW FREEZING AND NOT RECOVER BEFORE PRECIP BEGINS...AND THAT
WARMER AIR JUST ABOVE THE VALLEYS WILL RESULT IN FREEZING RAIN AT
THE SURFACE. THE PROBABILITY OF EVERYTHING COMING TOGETHER FOR
THIS IS FAIRLY LOW...AND DID NOT INCLUDE IT IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.

PRECIP SHOULD MOVE BACK IN FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW SIGNIFICANT COOLING ALOFT AS THIS
ROUND OF PRECIP DEVELOPS...WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES RESULTING IN A
DEEP LAYER. CONVECTIVE CURRENTS MAY EXTEND BEYOND THE -20C
LEVEL...AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING IN ALL AREAS MONDAY
EVENING. WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING AT TIMES...THE ADVISORY
EXPANDS TO COVER THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA AT THAT POINT.
ACCUMULATIONS IN ANY GIVEN PERIOD ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE ALL THAT
GREAT..BUT THE PROLONGED NATURE OF THE EVENT WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD
TO ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 514 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH DEEP AND BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
SETTING UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
THE WEEK. THIS FLOW WILL AID IN BRINGING COLD AIR IN FROM TO NW DOWN
INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEYS THROUGH THE WEEK. NOW THIS BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW MEANS THAT WE ARE LOOKING AT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED ENHANCEMENTS FROM TIME TO TIME. THIS IN LIES BIGGEST
CHALLENGE THAT REMAINS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE WHERE
AND WHEN DO THE PIECES OF ENERGY MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. THESE WILL
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL ENHANCEMENTS TO THE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE
START OF THE PERIOD. THAT SAID...THE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER WOULD
SUGGEST SOME SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE BASED ON SOUNDINGS WITH LAPSE RATES ABOVE 6 C/KM IN BOTH
THE LOW AND MID LEVELS. THEREFORE WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS IN THE FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF TUESDAY. THESE SNOW SQUALLS COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF SNOW DEPENDING ON WHERE THEY OCCUR AND IF THEY
REPEAT OVER THE SAME AREAS. EXPECT HIGHER SNOW RATIOS AND FLUFF
FACTOR FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...GIVEN THE COLD AIR IN PLACE THROUGH
THE ENTIRE COLUMN AND THE AT TIMES CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE SNOW.

THE DEEPER THOUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO FINALLY SWING EAST AS WE MOVE
INTO THURSDAY...AND WILL HELP CUTOFF THE BARRAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS
SEEN IN THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE BY FRIDAY...HOWEVER RIGHT NOW KEEPING MOST THE
PRECIP ACROSS THE SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA BASED ON THE MODEL BLEND
WITH FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH
PHASING OF THE TROUGH THAT MOVES EAST WITH A CLOSED LOW UPPER LOW
DIVING SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE
BUILDING A RIDGE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE CENTRAL US...WHICH HAMPERS A
DEEPER TROUGH SETTING UP FURTHER SOUTH IN THE NE US.  THESE
DIFFERENCES WILL HAVE GREATEST IMPLICATIONS OF TEMPERATURES TOWARD
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OVERALL WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COLDER
END SINCE GFS HAS CONTINUED TO TREND COLDER OVER THE PAST 4 RUNS
BASED ON THE 850MB TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR WILL LAST WELL INTO THE NIGHT. AFTER ABOUT 06Z...RAIN AND
MVFR CONDITIONS AND WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST...REACHING THE VA BORDER BY ABOUT 11Z. CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY FALL TO IFR FOR A TIME AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH.
A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY ON MONDAY MORNING...BUT
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD REDEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE COULD EVEN BE A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH THE SECOND ROUND OF PRECIP.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-111-114-116.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY
FOR KYZ088-118-120.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY
FOR KYZ104-106>110-112-113-115-117-119.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
KYZ087.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...KAS




000
FXUS63 KJKL 072356
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
656 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 656 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

VALLEYS ARE DROPPING QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH THE QUICKSAND
MESONET STATION ALREADY SITTING IN THE LOWER 40S. CLEARLY GUIDANCE
IS NOT CAPTURING THIS TEMPERATURE FALL THIS EVENING...SO HAVE
LOWERED TEMPERATURES INTO THE VALLEYS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EVENING...GENERALLY DOWN TO 30 TO 32. WE MAY NEED TO GO FURTHER
YET...BUT THIS WILL BE DETERMINED BY HOW FAST CLOUDS CAN MOVE IN
LATER THIS EVENING. LATEST HI RES MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW MOST
OF WHAT MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT BEING IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THE
QUESTION REMAINS HOW FAST VALLEYS COME BACK UP AND THUS IF WE CAN
AVOID A FREEZING RAIN IN A FEW OF OUR COLDER VALLEYS. HIGHER
TERRAIN IS STILL ON TRACK FOR SNOW...BUT INITIAL DRY AIR MAY CUT
INTO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LATE TONIGHT. THUS...PROBABLY LOOKING
FOR UNDER AN INCH IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM ANYTHING THAT FALLS
LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 514 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS DEVELOPING AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH
DROPS SOUTHEAST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A VERY LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE
PERIOD. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE JKL
FORECAST AREA MONDAY MORNING. MODELS AGREE ON PRECIP DEVELOPING
AND MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW LATE TONIGHT...AND
TEMPORARILY EXITING TO THE EAST ON MONDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL TEMPS
ARE MARGINAL FOR RAIN VS SNOW...AND A MIX IS FORECAST FOR MOST
AREAS. HOWEVER...HIGHER ELEVATIONS NEAR THE VA BORDER WILL BE
BELOW FREEZING AND SEE ALL SNOW. WITH ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TO
START THERE ON MONDAY...HAVE ISSUED OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
AT THIS POINT. THERE IS CONCERN THAT DECOUPLED VALLEYS WILL FALL
BELOW FREEZING AND NOT RECOVER BEFORE PRECIP BEGINS...AND THAT
WARMER AIR JUST ABOVE THE VALLEYS WILL RESULT IN FREEZING RAIN AT
THE SURFACE. THE PROBABILITY OF EVERYTHING COMING TOGETHER FOR
THIS IS FAIRLY LOW...AND DID NOT INCLUDE IT IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.

PRECIP SHOULD MOVE BACK IN FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW SIGNIFICANT COOLING ALOFT AS THIS
ROUND OF PRECIP DEVELOPS...WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES RESULTING IN A
DEEP LAYER. CONVECTIVE CURRENTS MAY EXTEND BEYOND THE -20C
LEVEL...AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING IN ALL AREAS MONDAY
EVENING. WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING AT TIMES...THE ADVISORY
EXPANDS TO COVER THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA AT THAT POINT.
ACCUMULATIONS IN ANY GIVEN PERIOD ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE ALL THAT
GREAT..BUT THE PROLONGED NATURE OF THE EVENT WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD
TO ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 514 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH DEEP AND BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
SETTING UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
THE WEEK. THIS FLOW WILL AID IN BRINGING COLD AIR IN FROM TO NW DOWN
INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEYS THROUGH THE WEEK. NOW THIS BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW MEANS THAT WE ARE LOOKING AT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED ENHANCEMENTS FROM TIME TO TIME. THIS IN LIES BIGGEST
CHALLENGE THAT REMAINS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE WHERE
AND WHEN DO THE PIECES OF ENERGY MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. THESE WILL
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL ENHANCEMENTS TO THE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE
START OF THE PERIOD. THAT SAID...THE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER WOULD
SUGGEST SOME SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE BASED ON SOUNDINGS WITH LAPSE RATES ABOVE 6 C/KM IN BOTH
THE LOW AND MID LEVELS. THEREFORE WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS IN THE FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF TUESDAY. THESE SNOW SQUALLS COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF SNOW DEPENDING ON WHERE THEY OCCUR AND IF THEY
REPEAT OVER THE SAME AREAS. EXPECT HIGHER SNOW RATIOS AND FLUFF
FACTOR FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...GIVEN THE COLD AIR IN PLACE THROUGH
THE ENTIRE COLUMN AND THE AT TIMES CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE SNOW.

THE DEEPER THOUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO FINALLY SWING EAST AS WE MOVE
INTO THURSDAY...AND WILL HELP CUTOFF THE BARRAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS
SEEN IN THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE BY FRIDAY...HOWEVER RIGHT NOW KEEPING MOST THE
PRECIP ACROSS THE SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA BASED ON THE MODEL BLEND
WITH FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH
PHASING OF THE TROUGH THAT MOVES EAST WITH A CLOSED LOW UPPER LOW
DIVING SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE
BUILDING A RIDGE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE CENTRAL US...WHICH HAMPERS A
DEEPER TROUGH SETTING UP FURTHER SOUTH IN THE NE US.  THESE
DIFFERENCES WILL HAVE GREATEST IMPLICATIONS OF TEMPERATURES TOWARD
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OVERALL WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COLDER
END SINCE GFS HAS CONTINUED TO TREND COLDER OVER THE PAST 4 RUNS
BASED ON THE 850MB TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR WILL LAST WELL INTO THE NIGHT. AFTER ABOUT 06Z...RAIN AND
MVFR CONDITIONS AND WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST...REACHING THE VA BORDER BY ABOUT 11Z. CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY FALL TO IFR FOR A TIME AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH.
A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY ON MONDAY MORNING...BUT
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD REDEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE COULD EVEN BE A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH THE SECOND ROUND OF PRECIP.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-111-114-116.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY
FOR KYZ088-118-120.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY
FOR KYZ104-106>110-112-113-115-117-119.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
KYZ087.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...KAS





000
FXUS63 KJKL 072356
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
656 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 656 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

VALLEYS ARE DROPPING QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH THE QUICKSAND
MESONET STATION ALREADY SITTING IN THE LOWER 40S. CLEARLY GUIDANCE
IS NOT CAPTURING THIS TEMPERATURE FALL THIS EVENING...SO HAVE
LOWERED TEMPERATURES INTO THE VALLEYS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EVENING...GENERALLY DOWN TO 30 TO 32. WE MAY NEED TO GO FURTHER
YET...BUT THIS WILL BE DETERMINED BY HOW FAST CLOUDS CAN MOVE IN
LATER THIS EVENING. LATEST HI RES MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW MOST
OF WHAT MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT BEING IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THE
QUESTION REMAINS HOW FAST VALLEYS COME BACK UP AND THUS IF WE CAN
AVOID A FREEZING RAIN IN A FEW OF OUR COLDER VALLEYS. HIGHER
TERRAIN IS STILL ON TRACK FOR SNOW...BUT INITIAL DRY AIR MAY CUT
INTO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LATE TONIGHT. THUS...PROBABLY LOOKING
FOR UNDER AN INCH IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM ANYTHING THAT FALLS
LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 514 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS DEVELOPING AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH
DROPS SOUTHEAST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A VERY LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE
PERIOD. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE JKL
FORECAST AREA MONDAY MORNING. MODELS AGREE ON PRECIP DEVELOPING
AND MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW LATE TONIGHT...AND
TEMPORARILY EXITING TO THE EAST ON MONDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL TEMPS
ARE MARGINAL FOR RAIN VS SNOW...AND A MIX IS FORECAST FOR MOST
AREAS. HOWEVER...HIGHER ELEVATIONS NEAR THE VA BORDER WILL BE
BELOW FREEZING AND SEE ALL SNOW. WITH ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TO
START THERE ON MONDAY...HAVE ISSUED OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
AT THIS POINT. THERE IS CONCERN THAT DECOUPLED VALLEYS WILL FALL
BELOW FREEZING AND NOT RECOVER BEFORE PRECIP BEGINS...AND THAT
WARMER AIR JUST ABOVE THE VALLEYS WILL RESULT IN FREEZING RAIN AT
THE SURFACE. THE PROBABILITY OF EVERYTHING COMING TOGETHER FOR
THIS IS FAIRLY LOW...AND DID NOT INCLUDE IT IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.

PRECIP SHOULD MOVE BACK IN FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW SIGNIFICANT COOLING ALOFT AS THIS
ROUND OF PRECIP DEVELOPS...WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES RESULTING IN A
DEEP LAYER. CONVECTIVE CURRENTS MAY EXTEND BEYOND THE -20C
LEVEL...AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING IN ALL AREAS MONDAY
EVENING. WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING AT TIMES...THE ADVISORY
EXPANDS TO COVER THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA AT THAT POINT.
ACCUMULATIONS IN ANY GIVEN PERIOD ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE ALL THAT
GREAT..BUT THE PROLONGED NATURE OF THE EVENT WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD
TO ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 514 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH DEEP AND BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
SETTING UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
THE WEEK. THIS FLOW WILL AID IN BRINGING COLD AIR IN FROM TO NW DOWN
INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEYS THROUGH THE WEEK. NOW THIS BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW MEANS THAT WE ARE LOOKING AT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED ENHANCEMENTS FROM TIME TO TIME. THIS IN LIES BIGGEST
CHALLENGE THAT REMAINS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE WHERE
AND WHEN DO THE PIECES OF ENERGY MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. THESE WILL
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL ENHANCEMENTS TO THE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE
START OF THE PERIOD. THAT SAID...THE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER WOULD
SUGGEST SOME SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE BASED ON SOUNDINGS WITH LAPSE RATES ABOVE 6 C/KM IN BOTH
THE LOW AND MID LEVELS. THEREFORE WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS IN THE FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF TUESDAY. THESE SNOW SQUALLS COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF SNOW DEPENDING ON WHERE THEY OCCUR AND IF THEY
REPEAT OVER THE SAME AREAS. EXPECT HIGHER SNOW RATIOS AND FLUFF
FACTOR FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...GIVEN THE COLD AIR IN PLACE THROUGH
THE ENTIRE COLUMN AND THE AT TIMES CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE SNOW.

THE DEEPER THOUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO FINALLY SWING EAST AS WE MOVE
INTO THURSDAY...AND WILL HELP CUTOFF THE BARRAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS
SEEN IN THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE BY FRIDAY...HOWEVER RIGHT NOW KEEPING MOST THE
PRECIP ACROSS THE SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA BASED ON THE MODEL BLEND
WITH FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH
PHASING OF THE TROUGH THAT MOVES EAST WITH A CLOSED LOW UPPER LOW
DIVING SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE
BUILDING A RIDGE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE CENTRAL US...WHICH HAMPERS A
DEEPER TROUGH SETTING UP FURTHER SOUTH IN THE NE US.  THESE
DIFFERENCES WILL HAVE GREATEST IMPLICATIONS OF TEMPERATURES TOWARD
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OVERALL WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COLDER
END SINCE GFS HAS CONTINUED TO TREND COLDER OVER THE PAST 4 RUNS
BASED ON THE 850MB TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR WILL LAST WELL INTO THE NIGHT. AFTER ABOUT 06Z...RAIN AND
MVFR CONDITIONS AND WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST...REACHING THE VA BORDER BY ABOUT 11Z. CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY FALL TO IFR FOR A TIME AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH.
A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY ON MONDAY MORNING...BUT
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD REDEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE COULD EVEN BE A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH THE SECOND ROUND OF PRECIP.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-111-114-116.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY
FOR KYZ088-118-120.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY
FOR KYZ104-106>110-112-113-115-117-119.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
KYZ087.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...KAS





000
FXUS63 KJKL 072214
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
514 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 514 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS DEVELOPING AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH
DROPS SOUTHEAST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A VERY LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE
PERIOD. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE JKL
FORECAST AREA MONDAY MORNING. MODELS AGREE ON PRECIP DEVELOPING
AND MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW LATE TONIGHT...AND
TEMPORARILY EXITING TO THE EAST ON MONDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL TEMPS
ARE MARGINAL FOR RAIN VS SNOW...AND A MIX IS FORECAST FOR MOST
AREAS. HOWEVER...HIGHER ELEVATIONS NEAR THE VA BORDER WILL BE
BELOW FREEZING AND SEE ALL SNOW. WITH ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TO
START THERE ON MONDAY...HAVE ISSUED OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
AT THIS POINT. THERE IS CONCERN THAT DECOUPLED VALLEYS WILL FALL
BELOW FREEZING AND NOT RECOVER BEFORE PRECIP BEGINS...AND THAT
WARMER AIR JUST ABOVE THE VALLEYS WILL RESULT IN FREEZING RAIN AT
THE SURFACE. THE PROBABILITY OF EVERYTHING COMING TOGETHER FOR
THIS IS FAIRLY LOW...AND DID NOT INCLUDE IT IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.

PRECIP SHOULD MOVE BACK IN FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW SIGNIFICANT COOLING ALOFT AS THIS
ROUND OF PRECIP DEVELOPS...WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES RESULTING IN A
DEEP LAYER. CONVECTIVE CURRENTS MAY EXTEND BEYOND THE -20C
LEVEL...AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING IN ALL AREAS MONDAY
EVENING. WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING AT TIMES...THE ADVISORY
EXPANDS TO COVER THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA AT THAT POINT.
ACCUMULATIONS IN ANY GIVEN PERIOD ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE ALL THAT
GREAT..BUT THE PROLONGED NATURE OF THE EVENT WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD
TO ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 514 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH DEEP AND BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
SETTING UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
THE WEEK. THIS FLOW WILL AID IN BRINGING COLD AIR IN FROM TO NW DOWN
INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEYS THROUGH THE WEEK. NOW THIS BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW MEANS THAT WE ARE LOOKING AT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED ENHANCEMENTS FROM TIME TO TIME. THIS IN LIES BIGGEST
CHALLENGE THAT REMAINS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE WHERE
AND WHEN DO THE PIECES OF ENERGY MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. THESE WILL
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL ENHANCEMENTS TO THE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE
START OF THE PERIOD. THAT SAID...THE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER WOULD
SUGGEST SOME SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE BASED ON SOUNDINGS WITH LAPSE RATES ABOVE 6 C/KM IN BOTH
THE LOW AND MID LEVELS. THEREFORE WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS IN THE FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF TUESDAY. THESE SNOW SQUALLS COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF SNOW DEPENDING ON WHERE THEY OCCUR AND IF THEY
REPEAT OVER THE SAME AREAS. EXPECT HIGHER SNOW RATIOS AND FLUFF
FACTOR FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...GIVEN THE COLD AIR IN PLACE THROUGH
THE ENTIRE COLUMN AND THE AT TIMES CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE SNOW.

THE DEEPER THOUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO FINALLY SWING EAST AS WE MOVE
INTO THURSDAY...AND WILL HELP CUTOFF THE BARRAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS
SEEN IN THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE BY FRIDAY...HOWEVER RIGHT NOW KEEPING MOST THE
PRECIP ACROSS THE SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA BASED ON THE MODEL BLEND
WITH FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH
PHASING OF THE TROUGH THAT MOVES EAST WITH A CLOSED LOW UPPER LOW
DIVING SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE
BUILDING A RIDGE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE CENTRAL US...WHICH HAMPERS A
DEEPER TROUGH SETTING UP FURTHER SOUTH IN THE NE US.  THESE
DIFFERENCES WILL HAVE GREATEST IMPLICATIONS OF TEMPERATURES TOWARD
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OVERALL WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COLDER
END SINCE GFS HAS CONTINUED TO TREND COLDER OVER THE PAST 4 RUNS
BASED ON THE 850MB TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR WILL LAST WELL INTO THE NIGHT. AFTER ABOUT 06Z...A RAIN/SNOW
MIXTURE AND MVFR CONDITIONS AND WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST...REACHING THE VA BORDER BY ABOUT 11Z. CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY FALL TO IFR FOR A TIME AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH.
A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY ON MONDAY MORNING...BUT
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD REDEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE COULD EVEN BE A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH THE SECOND ROUND OF PRECIP.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-111-114-116.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY
FOR KYZ088-118-120.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY
FOR KYZ104-106>110-112-113-115-117-119.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
KYZ087.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...HAL





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