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000
FXUS63 KJKL 050828
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
428 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

WSR-88D RADAR IS QUIET THIS MORNING...BUT STILL SEEING A OVERNIGHT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING SE CLOSER TO THE VA BORDER. OVERALL THIS
SHOULD HAVE LITTLE AFFECT...BUT COULD STIFLE SOME AREAS FROM
COMPLETELY DECOUPLING. THIS COULD LIMIT THE FOG PRODUCTION IN
SPOTS THIS MORNING...BUT STILL THINK PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. THIS FOG WILL CLEAR
OUT AFTER SUNRISE AND WE WILL BE LEFT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
ACROSS EASTERN KY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR YET ANOTHER WARM
AND HUMID DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S AND
LOWER 90S ONCE AGAIN.

ALSO GIVEN UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE WOULD ONCE AGAIN EXPECT
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
RIGHT NOW KEPT CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH BEST CHANCES
ALONG THE TN/VA BORDER...WHERE TOPO SHOULD HELP WITH FIRING OFF
STORMS. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE CAMS HINTING AT THIS AREA
ON BOTH THE SSEO AND WRF-ARW ENSEMBLES. THE QUESTION WILL BE
WHERE DO THESE STORMS DRIFT AND WHERE DO THE OUTFLOWS MOVE.
YESTERDAY THIS WAS A KEY COMPONENT TO THE OVERALL DEVELOPMENT OF
THESE STORMS PARTICULARLY IN THE EVENING...SINCE WE HAVE NOT
DISCERNIBLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OR LIFTING MECHANISM. GIVEN THE
MORE MESOSCALE NATURE OF THIS THIS WILL HAVE TO BE LOOKED AT
CLOSER THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER
NIGHT OF FOG POTENTIAL MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS. FOG COULD BE MORE
DENSE IN THOSE LOCATIONS THAT ARE ABLE TO SEE RAINFALL.

SUNDAY DID OPT TO PUT A ISOLATED POP ALONG THE TN/VA BORDER
LOCATIONS AND STUCK CLOSE TO THE BLEND AT THIS POINT. OVERALL
THINKING MOST SPOTS WILL STAY DRY GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE. TEMPS
FOR SUNDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND AN AREA OF RIDGING FROM THE ATLANTIC
WEST INTO THE MIDWEST AND THEN SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
NORTHERN MEXICO. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE
MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...THE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
INITIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS SHOULD MEANDER TO THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WHILE AN AREA OF RIDGING
REMAINS IN PLACE FROM NORTHERN MEXICO NORTHEAST INTO THE ARKLATEX
REGION AND THEN EAST TO THE ATLANTIC. THE APPALACHIAN REGION WILL
REMAIN IN AN AREA OF SLIGHTLY LOWER HEIGHTS BETWEEN THE TWO
CENTERS OF THE RIDGING...NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA AND OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. ALSO DURING THIS TIME...THE NORTHERN AND
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE FROM SASKATCHEWAN TO MANITOBA.
THE FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO MIDWEEK...HEIGHTS SHOULD FALL ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE OHIO VALLEY AS THE NORTHERN UPPER
LEVEL LOW TRACKS TOWARD HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL LEAVE GENERALLY
WESTERN FLOW WITH A BROAD TROUGH FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS DIFFER WITH HEIGHTS FROM THE OH VALLEY
SOUTH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...BUT ACROSS THAT REGION...A TROUGH
OR WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER LEVEL SHOULD EXIST BETWEEN RIDGING
CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND A
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THE SFC...A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AT MIDWEEK.

FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES WILL CARVE OUT A TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTH INTO THE
PLAINS ON THU AND THEN INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION AND APPROACH THE
EASTERN CONUS LATE IN THE PERIOD. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES SHOULD ALSO
WORK ACROSS THE OH VALLEY FROM WED INTO FRI. THE DEVELOPING
TROUGH SHOULD PUSH A STRONGER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE COMMONWEALTH
AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS FRONT...HOWEVER...SHOULD NOT CROSS
EAST KY UNTIL FRI NIGHT OR NEXT SAT.

AS FOR CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...THEY WILL INITIALLY BE BETTER
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE VA AND TN BORDER ON MON AND TUE
AFTERNOON WHERE HEIGHTS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER AND DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND MTNS AND NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU
MAY SERVE AS TRIGGERS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION. AS THE PATTERN
BEGINS TO CHANGE DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK...TUE NIGHT
THROUGH THU...AND AS THE FIRST BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE
AREA...CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA. EVEN THEN...COVERAGE SHOULD BE MAINLY SCATTERED. THE WEATHER
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND A COLD FRONT APPROACH.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY SHOULD AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL FOR HIGHS
AND LOWS WITH A SOMEWHAT LIMITED DIURNAL RANGE DUE TO A MOIST
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND PRECIP FROM TIME TO
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DID DEVELOP THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAVE
DIED OFF. STILL HAVE A OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT...HOWEVER LITTLE WIND HAS BEEN SEEN WITH THIS
IN THIS OVERNIGHT HOUR. OVERALL MOST SITES ARE REMAINING VFR...BUT
GIVEN PERSISTENCE WOULD EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP AT MOST SITES
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. RESTRICTIONS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR TO
IFR BEFORE IT DISSIPATES AFTER SUNRISE. MORE AIRMASS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW AND WILL HAVE BEST CHANCES
GENERALLY NEAR THE TN/VA BORDER. THEREFORE KEPT WITH VCTS AT ALL
THE SITES IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALSO ADDED FOG TOWARD THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD GIVEN PERSISTENCE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...BUT IF A STORM HITS A TAF SITE COULD SEE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS
AND VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DJ




000
FXUS63 KJKL 050828
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
428 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

WSR-88D RADAR IS QUIET THIS MORNING...BUT STILL SEEING A OVERNIGHT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING SE CLOSER TO THE VA BORDER. OVERALL THIS
SHOULD HAVE LITTLE AFFECT...BUT COULD STIFLE SOME AREAS FROM
COMPLETELY DECOUPLING. THIS COULD LIMIT THE FOG PRODUCTION IN
SPOTS THIS MORNING...BUT STILL THINK PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. THIS FOG WILL CLEAR
OUT AFTER SUNRISE AND WE WILL BE LEFT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
ACROSS EASTERN KY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR YET ANOTHER WARM
AND HUMID DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S AND
LOWER 90S ONCE AGAIN.

ALSO GIVEN UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE WOULD ONCE AGAIN EXPECT
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
RIGHT NOW KEPT CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH BEST CHANCES
ALONG THE TN/VA BORDER...WHERE TOPO SHOULD HELP WITH FIRING OFF
STORMS. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE CAMS HINTING AT THIS AREA
ON BOTH THE SSEO AND WRF-ARW ENSEMBLES. THE QUESTION WILL BE
WHERE DO THESE STORMS DRIFT AND WHERE DO THE OUTFLOWS MOVE.
YESTERDAY THIS WAS A KEY COMPONENT TO THE OVERALL DEVELOPMENT OF
THESE STORMS PARTICULARLY IN THE EVENING...SINCE WE HAVE NOT
DISCERNIBLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OR LIFTING MECHANISM. GIVEN THE
MORE MESOSCALE NATURE OF THIS THIS WILL HAVE TO BE LOOKED AT
CLOSER THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER
NIGHT OF FOG POTENTIAL MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS. FOG COULD BE MORE
DENSE IN THOSE LOCATIONS THAT ARE ABLE TO SEE RAINFALL.

SUNDAY DID OPT TO PUT A ISOLATED POP ALONG THE TN/VA BORDER
LOCATIONS AND STUCK CLOSE TO THE BLEND AT THIS POINT. OVERALL
THINKING MOST SPOTS WILL STAY DRY GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE. TEMPS
FOR SUNDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND AN AREA OF RIDGING FROM THE ATLANTIC
WEST INTO THE MIDWEST AND THEN SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
NORTHERN MEXICO. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE
MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...THE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
INITIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS SHOULD MEANDER TO THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WHILE AN AREA OF RIDGING
REMAINS IN PLACE FROM NORTHERN MEXICO NORTHEAST INTO THE ARKLATEX
REGION AND THEN EAST TO THE ATLANTIC. THE APPALACHIAN REGION WILL
REMAIN IN AN AREA OF SLIGHTLY LOWER HEIGHTS BETWEEN THE TWO
CENTERS OF THE RIDGING...NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA AND OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. ALSO DURING THIS TIME...THE NORTHERN AND
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE FROM SASKATCHEWAN TO MANITOBA.
THE FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO MIDWEEK...HEIGHTS SHOULD FALL ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE OHIO VALLEY AS THE NORTHERN UPPER
LEVEL LOW TRACKS TOWARD HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL LEAVE GENERALLY
WESTERN FLOW WITH A BROAD TROUGH FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS DIFFER WITH HEIGHTS FROM THE OH VALLEY
SOUTH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...BUT ACROSS THAT REGION...A TROUGH
OR WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER LEVEL SHOULD EXIST BETWEEN RIDGING
CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND A
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THE SFC...A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AT MIDWEEK.

FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES WILL CARVE OUT A TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTH INTO THE
PLAINS ON THU AND THEN INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION AND APPROACH THE
EASTERN CONUS LATE IN THE PERIOD. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES SHOULD ALSO
WORK ACROSS THE OH VALLEY FROM WED INTO FRI. THE DEVELOPING
TROUGH SHOULD PUSH A STRONGER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE COMMONWEALTH
AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS FRONT...HOWEVER...SHOULD NOT CROSS
EAST KY UNTIL FRI NIGHT OR NEXT SAT.

AS FOR CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...THEY WILL INITIALLY BE BETTER
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE VA AND TN BORDER ON MON AND TUE
AFTERNOON WHERE HEIGHTS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER AND DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND MTNS AND NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU
MAY SERVE AS TRIGGERS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION. AS THE PATTERN
BEGINS TO CHANGE DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK...TUE NIGHT
THROUGH THU...AND AS THE FIRST BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE
AREA...CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA. EVEN THEN...COVERAGE SHOULD BE MAINLY SCATTERED. THE WEATHER
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND A COLD FRONT APPROACH.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY SHOULD AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL FOR HIGHS
AND LOWS WITH A SOMEWHAT LIMITED DIURNAL RANGE DUE TO A MOIST
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND PRECIP FROM TIME TO
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DID DEVELOP THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAVE
DIED OFF. STILL HAVE A OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT...HOWEVER LITTLE WIND HAS BEEN SEEN WITH THIS
IN THIS OVERNIGHT HOUR. OVERALL MOST SITES ARE REMAINING VFR...BUT
GIVEN PERSISTENCE WOULD EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP AT MOST SITES
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. RESTRICTIONS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR TO
IFR BEFORE IT DISSIPATES AFTER SUNRISE. MORE AIRMASS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW AND WILL HAVE BEST CHANCES
GENERALLY NEAR THE TN/VA BORDER. THEREFORE KEPT WITH VCTS AT ALL
THE SITES IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALSO ADDED FOG TOWARD THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD GIVEN PERSISTENCE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...BUT IF A STORM HITS A TAF SITE COULD SEE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS
AND VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DJ





000
FXUS63 KJKL 050828
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
428 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

WSR-88D RADAR IS QUIET THIS MORNING...BUT STILL SEEING A OVERNIGHT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING SE CLOSER TO THE VA BORDER. OVERALL THIS
SHOULD HAVE LITTLE AFFECT...BUT COULD STIFLE SOME AREAS FROM
COMPLETELY DECOUPLING. THIS COULD LIMIT THE FOG PRODUCTION IN
SPOTS THIS MORNING...BUT STILL THINK PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. THIS FOG WILL CLEAR
OUT AFTER SUNRISE AND WE WILL BE LEFT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
ACROSS EASTERN KY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR YET ANOTHER WARM
AND HUMID DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S AND
LOWER 90S ONCE AGAIN.

ALSO GIVEN UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE WOULD ONCE AGAIN EXPECT
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
RIGHT NOW KEPT CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH BEST CHANCES
ALONG THE TN/VA BORDER...WHERE TOPO SHOULD HELP WITH FIRING OFF
STORMS. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE CAMS HINTING AT THIS AREA
ON BOTH THE SSEO AND WRF-ARW ENSEMBLES. THE QUESTION WILL BE
WHERE DO THESE STORMS DRIFT AND WHERE DO THE OUTFLOWS MOVE.
YESTERDAY THIS WAS A KEY COMPONENT TO THE OVERALL DEVELOPMENT OF
THESE STORMS PARTICULARLY IN THE EVENING...SINCE WE HAVE NOT
DISCERNIBLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OR LIFTING MECHANISM. GIVEN THE
MORE MESOSCALE NATURE OF THIS THIS WILL HAVE TO BE LOOKED AT
CLOSER THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER
NIGHT OF FOG POTENTIAL MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS. FOG COULD BE MORE
DENSE IN THOSE LOCATIONS THAT ARE ABLE TO SEE RAINFALL.

SUNDAY DID OPT TO PUT A ISOLATED POP ALONG THE TN/VA BORDER
LOCATIONS AND STUCK CLOSE TO THE BLEND AT THIS POINT. OVERALL
THINKING MOST SPOTS WILL STAY DRY GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE. TEMPS
FOR SUNDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND AN AREA OF RIDGING FROM THE ATLANTIC
WEST INTO THE MIDWEST AND THEN SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
NORTHERN MEXICO. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE
MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...THE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
INITIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS SHOULD MEANDER TO THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WHILE AN AREA OF RIDGING
REMAINS IN PLACE FROM NORTHERN MEXICO NORTHEAST INTO THE ARKLATEX
REGION AND THEN EAST TO THE ATLANTIC. THE APPALACHIAN REGION WILL
REMAIN IN AN AREA OF SLIGHTLY LOWER HEIGHTS BETWEEN THE TWO
CENTERS OF THE RIDGING...NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA AND OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. ALSO DURING THIS TIME...THE NORTHERN AND
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE FROM SASKATCHEWAN TO MANITOBA.
THE FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO MIDWEEK...HEIGHTS SHOULD FALL ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE OHIO VALLEY AS THE NORTHERN UPPER
LEVEL LOW TRACKS TOWARD HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL LEAVE GENERALLY
WESTERN FLOW WITH A BROAD TROUGH FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS DIFFER WITH HEIGHTS FROM THE OH VALLEY
SOUTH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...BUT ACROSS THAT REGION...A TROUGH
OR WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER LEVEL SHOULD EXIST BETWEEN RIDGING
CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND A
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THE SFC...A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AT MIDWEEK.

FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES WILL CARVE OUT A TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTH INTO THE
PLAINS ON THU AND THEN INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION AND APPROACH THE
EASTERN CONUS LATE IN THE PERIOD. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES SHOULD ALSO
WORK ACROSS THE OH VALLEY FROM WED INTO FRI. THE DEVELOPING
TROUGH SHOULD PUSH A STRONGER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE COMMONWEALTH
AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS FRONT...HOWEVER...SHOULD NOT CROSS
EAST KY UNTIL FRI NIGHT OR NEXT SAT.

AS FOR CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...THEY WILL INITIALLY BE BETTER
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE VA AND TN BORDER ON MON AND TUE
AFTERNOON WHERE HEIGHTS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER AND DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND MTNS AND NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU
MAY SERVE AS TRIGGERS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION. AS THE PATTERN
BEGINS TO CHANGE DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK...TUE NIGHT
THROUGH THU...AND AS THE FIRST BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE
AREA...CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA. EVEN THEN...COVERAGE SHOULD BE MAINLY SCATTERED. THE WEATHER
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND A COLD FRONT APPROACH.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY SHOULD AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL FOR HIGHS
AND LOWS WITH A SOMEWHAT LIMITED DIURNAL RANGE DUE TO A MOIST
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND PRECIP FROM TIME TO
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DID DEVELOP THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAVE
DIED OFF. STILL HAVE A OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT...HOWEVER LITTLE WIND HAS BEEN SEEN WITH THIS
IN THIS OVERNIGHT HOUR. OVERALL MOST SITES ARE REMAINING VFR...BUT
GIVEN PERSISTENCE WOULD EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP AT MOST SITES
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. RESTRICTIONS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR TO
IFR BEFORE IT DISSIPATES AFTER SUNRISE. MORE AIRMASS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW AND WILL HAVE BEST CHANCES
GENERALLY NEAR THE TN/VA BORDER. THEREFORE KEPT WITH VCTS AT ALL
THE SITES IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALSO ADDED FOG TOWARD THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD GIVEN PERSISTENCE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...BUT IF A STORM HITS A TAF SITE COULD SEE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS
AND VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DJ




000
FXUS63 KJKL 050828
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
428 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

WSR-88D RADAR IS QUIET THIS MORNING...BUT STILL SEEING A OVERNIGHT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING SE CLOSER TO THE VA BORDER. OVERALL THIS
SHOULD HAVE LITTLE AFFECT...BUT COULD STIFLE SOME AREAS FROM
COMPLETELY DECOUPLING. THIS COULD LIMIT THE FOG PRODUCTION IN
SPOTS THIS MORNING...BUT STILL THINK PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. THIS FOG WILL CLEAR
OUT AFTER SUNRISE AND WE WILL BE LEFT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
ACROSS EASTERN KY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR YET ANOTHER WARM
AND HUMID DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S AND
LOWER 90S ONCE AGAIN.

ALSO GIVEN UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE WOULD ONCE AGAIN EXPECT
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
RIGHT NOW KEPT CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH BEST CHANCES
ALONG THE TN/VA BORDER...WHERE TOPO SHOULD HELP WITH FIRING OFF
STORMS. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE CAMS HINTING AT THIS AREA
ON BOTH THE SSEO AND WRF-ARW ENSEMBLES. THE QUESTION WILL BE
WHERE DO THESE STORMS DRIFT AND WHERE DO THE OUTFLOWS MOVE.
YESTERDAY THIS WAS A KEY COMPONENT TO THE OVERALL DEVELOPMENT OF
THESE STORMS PARTICULARLY IN THE EVENING...SINCE WE HAVE NOT
DISCERNIBLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OR LIFTING MECHANISM. GIVEN THE
MORE MESOSCALE NATURE OF THIS THIS WILL HAVE TO BE LOOKED AT
CLOSER THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER
NIGHT OF FOG POTENTIAL MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS. FOG COULD BE MORE
DENSE IN THOSE LOCATIONS THAT ARE ABLE TO SEE RAINFALL.

SUNDAY DID OPT TO PUT A ISOLATED POP ALONG THE TN/VA BORDER
LOCATIONS AND STUCK CLOSE TO THE BLEND AT THIS POINT. OVERALL
THINKING MOST SPOTS WILL STAY DRY GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE. TEMPS
FOR SUNDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND AN AREA OF RIDGING FROM THE ATLANTIC
WEST INTO THE MIDWEST AND THEN SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
NORTHERN MEXICO. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE
MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...THE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
INITIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS SHOULD MEANDER TO THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WHILE AN AREA OF RIDGING
REMAINS IN PLACE FROM NORTHERN MEXICO NORTHEAST INTO THE ARKLATEX
REGION AND THEN EAST TO THE ATLANTIC. THE APPALACHIAN REGION WILL
REMAIN IN AN AREA OF SLIGHTLY LOWER HEIGHTS BETWEEN THE TWO
CENTERS OF THE RIDGING...NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA AND OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. ALSO DURING THIS TIME...THE NORTHERN AND
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE FROM SASKATCHEWAN TO MANITOBA.
THE FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO MIDWEEK...HEIGHTS SHOULD FALL ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE OHIO VALLEY AS THE NORTHERN UPPER
LEVEL LOW TRACKS TOWARD HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL LEAVE GENERALLY
WESTERN FLOW WITH A BROAD TROUGH FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS DIFFER WITH HEIGHTS FROM THE OH VALLEY
SOUTH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...BUT ACROSS THAT REGION...A TROUGH
OR WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER LEVEL SHOULD EXIST BETWEEN RIDGING
CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND A
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THE SFC...A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AT MIDWEEK.

FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES WILL CARVE OUT A TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTH INTO THE
PLAINS ON THU AND THEN INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION AND APPROACH THE
EASTERN CONUS LATE IN THE PERIOD. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES SHOULD ALSO
WORK ACROSS THE OH VALLEY FROM WED INTO FRI. THE DEVELOPING
TROUGH SHOULD PUSH A STRONGER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE COMMONWEALTH
AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS FRONT...HOWEVER...SHOULD NOT CROSS
EAST KY UNTIL FRI NIGHT OR NEXT SAT.

AS FOR CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...THEY WILL INITIALLY BE BETTER
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE VA AND TN BORDER ON MON AND TUE
AFTERNOON WHERE HEIGHTS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER AND DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND MTNS AND NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU
MAY SERVE AS TRIGGERS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION. AS THE PATTERN
BEGINS TO CHANGE DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK...TUE NIGHT
THROUGH THU...AND AS THE FIRST BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE
AREA...CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA. EVEN THEN...COVERAGE SHOULD BE MAINLY SCATTERED. THE WEATHER
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND A COLD FRONT APPROACH.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY SHOULD AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL FOR HIGHS
AND LOWS WITH A SOMEWHAT LIMITED DIURNAL RANGE DUE TO A MOIST
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND PRECIP FROM TIME TO
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DID DEVELOP THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAVE
DIED OFF. STILL HAVE A OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT...HOWEVER LITTLE WIND HAS BEEN SEEN WITH THIS
IN THIS OVERNIGHT HOUR. OVERALL MOST SITES ARE REMAINING VFR...BUT
GIVEN PERSISTENCE WOULD EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP AT MOST SITES
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. RESTRICTIONS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR TO
IFR BEFORE IT DISSIPATES AFTER SUNRISE. MORE AIRMASS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW AND WILL HAVE BEST CHANCES
GENERALLY NEAR THE TN/VA BORDER. THEREFORE KEPT WITH VCTS AT ALL
THE SITES IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALSO ADDED FOG TOWARD THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD GIVEN PERSISTENCE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...BUT IF A STORM HITS A TAF SITE COULD SEE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS
AND VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DJ





000
FXUS63 KJKL 050712
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
312 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

WSR-88D RADAR IS QUIET THIS MORNING...BUT STILL SEEING A OVERNIGHT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING SE CLOSER TO THE VA BORDER. OVERALL THIS
SHOULD HAVE LITTLE AFFECT...BUT COULD STIFLE SOME AREAS FROM
COMPLETELY DECOUPLING. THIS COULD LIMIT THE FOG PRODUCTION IN
SPOTS THIS MORNING...BUT STILL THINK PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. THIS FOG WILL CLEAR
OUT AFTER SUNRISE AND WE WILL BE LEFT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
ACROSS EASTERN KY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR YET ANOTHER WARM
AND HUMID DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S AND
LOWER 90S ONCE AGAIN.

ALSO GIVEN UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE WOULD ONCE AGAIN EXPECT
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
RIGHT NOW KEPT CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH BEST CHANCES
ALONG THE TN/VA BORDER...WHERE TOPO SHOULD HELP WITH FIRING OFF
STORMS. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE CAMS HINTING AT THIS AREA
ON BOTH THE SSEO AND WRF-ARW ENSEMBLES. THE QUESTION WILL BE
WHERE DO THESE STORMS DRIFT AND WHERE DO THE OUTFLOWS MOVE.
YESTERDAY THIS WAS A KEY COMPONENT TO THE OVERALL DEVELOPMENT OF
THESE STORMS PARTICULARLY IN THE EVENING...SINCE WE HAVE NOT
DISCERNIBLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OR LIFTING MECHANISM. GIVEN THE
MORE MESOSCALE NATURE OF THIS THIS WILL HAVE TO BE LOOKED AT
CLOSER THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER
NIGHT OF FOG POTENTIAL MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS. FOG COULD BE MORE
DENSE IN THOSE LOCATIONS THAT ARE ABLE TO SEE RAINFALL.

SUNDAY DID OPT TO PUT A ISOLATED POP ALONG THE TN/VA BORDER
LOCATIONS AND STUCK CLOSE TO THE BLEND AT THIS POINT. OVERALL
THINKING MOST SPOTS WILL STAY DRY GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE. TEMPS
FOR SUNDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

AVAILABLE SHORTLY...

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DID DEVELOP THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAVE
DIED OFF. STILL HAVE A OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT...HOWEVER LITTLE WIND HAS BEEN SEEN WITH THIS
IN THIS OVERNIGHT HOUR. OVERALL MOST SITES ARE REMAINING VFR...BUT
GIVEN PERSISTENCE WOULD EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP AT MOST SITES
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. RESTRICTIONS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR TO
IFR BEFORE IT DISSIPATES AFTER SUNRISE. MORE AIRMASS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW AND WILL HAVE BEST CHANCES
GENERALLY NEAR THE TN/VA BORDER. THEREFORE KEPT WITH VCTS AT ALL
THE SITES IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALSO ADDED FOG TOWARD THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD GIVEN PERSISTENCE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...BUT IF A STORM HITS A TAF SITE COULD SEE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS
AND VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DJ




000
FXUS63 KJKL 050712
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
312 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

WSR-88D RADAR IS QUIET THIS MORNING...BUT STILL SEEING A OVERNIGHT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING SE CLOSER TO THE VA BORDER. OVERALL THIS
SHOULD HAVE LITTLE AFFECT...BUT COULD STIFLE SOME AREAS FROM
COMPLETELY DECOUPLING. THIS COULD LIMIT THE FOG PRODUCTION IN
SPOTS THIS MORNING...BUT STILL THINK PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. THIS FOG WILL CLEAR
OUT AFTER SUNRISE AND WE WILL BE LEFT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
ACROSS EASTERN KY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR YET ANOTHER WARM
AND HUMID DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S AND
LOWER 90S ONCE AGAIN.

ALSO GIVEN UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE WOULD ONCE AGAIN EXPECT
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
RIGHT NOW KEPT CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH BEST CHANCES
ALONG THE TN/VA BORDER...WHERE TOPO SHOULD HELP WITH FIRING OFF
STORMS. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE CAMS HINTING AT THIS AREA
ON BOTH THE SSEO AND WRF-ARW ENSEMBLES. THE QUESTION WILL BE
WHERE DO THESE STORMS DRIFT AND WHERE DO THE OUTFLOWS MOVE.
YESTERDAY THIS WAS A KEY COMPONENT TO THE OVERALL DEVELOPMENT OF
THESE STORMS PARTICULARLY IN THE EVENING...SINCE WE HAVE NOT
DISCERNIBLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OR LIFTING MECHANISM. GIVEN THE
MORE MESOSCALE NATURE OF THIS THIS WILL HAVE TO BE LOOKED AT
CLOSER THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER
NIGHT OF FOG POTENTIAL MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS. FOG COULD BE MORE
DENSE IN THOSE LOCATIONS THAT ARE ABLE TO SEE RAINFALL.

SUNDAY DID OPT TO PUT A ISOLATED POP ALONG THE TN/VA BORDER
LOCATIONS AND STUCK CLOSE TO THE BLEND AT THIS POINT. OVERALL
THINKING MOST SPOTS WILL STAY DRY GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE. TEMPS
FOR SUNDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

AVAILABLE SHORTLY...

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DID DEVELOP THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAVE
DIED OFF. STILL HAVE A OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT...HOWEVER LITTLE WIND HAS BEEN SEEN WITH THIS
IN THIS OVERNIGHT HOUR. OVERALL MOST SITES ARE REMAINING VFR...BUT
GIVEN PERSISTENCE WOULD EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP AT MOST SITES
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. RESTRICTIONS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR TO
IFR BEFORE IT DISSIPATES AFTER SUNRISE. MORE AIRMASS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW AND WILL HAVE BEST CHANCES
GENERALLY NEAR THE TN/VA BORDER. THEREFORE KEPT WITH VCTS AT ALL
THE SITES IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALSO ADDED FOG TOWARD THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD GIVEN PERSISTENCE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...BUT IF A STORM HITS A TAF SITE COULD SEE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS
AND VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DJ





000
FXUS63 KJKL 050537
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
137 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1107 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTED LATE THIS EVENING.
HAVE EXTENDED THE MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE FORECAST...EVEN THOUGH
IN REALITY THE POP IS PROBABLY LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. THE ACTIVITY
CONTINUE TO BE ON AN OVERALL DECLINE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 821 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TRIGGERING THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING INTO OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING. WITH LOSS OF HEATING...CONVECTION
WILL SHOW AN OVERALL DIMINISHING TREND. HOWEVER...IT WILL HOLD ON
LONG ENOUGH TO BRING PRECIP TO SOME LOCATIONS IN OUR NORTH...AND
HAVE EXTENDED THE MENTION OF PRECIP INTO THE EVENING. SOME VERY
ISOLATED CELLS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING FURTHER SOUTH...BUT COVERAGE
IS SO SLIGHT THAT IT HARDLY WARRANTS A 20 PERCENT POP.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN CONTROL ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. STRAY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DOT
EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING ONCE AGAIN BEFORE
DYING OFF WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY GET TALL
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND WILL MENTION THIS IN THE
HWO.

AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG WILL ALSO BE SEEN OVERNIGHT...BUT GIVEN
A LITTLE LESS AREAL COVERAGE OF THE STORMS AND WINDS SLOWLY
VEERING TO THE EAST AND MAYBE EVEN A BIT SOUTHEAST BY DAWN...WOULD
EXPECT IT TO BE A BIT LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. LOWS WILL
BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...WITH A FEW SPOTS REACHING
DOWN INTO THE LOWER 60S.

SATURDAY WILL FEATURE ANOTHER HOT DAY...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION. THE BETTER COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN OUR SOUTHEAST...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
MODELS CONTINUE TO LOOK PRETTY AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
COVERAGE...WHICH IN GENERAL HAS BEEN A BIT OVERDONE IN THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO NEAR THE 90 DEGREE MARK.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE WINDS...WHILE LIGHT...WILL HAVE
VEERED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS SHOULD KEEP FOG PRETTY RESTRICTED TO
THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS...AND ALLOW FOR A BIT MORE OF A
RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT...ALTHOUGH MOST SPOTS WILL DIFFER WITHIN THE 5
DEGREE MARK.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL
FEATURE A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND EASTERN CONUS...WITH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH
BUILDING TO THE WEST ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY ON
SUNDAY. THE RESULTING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR EASTERN
MOUNTAINS WILL LEAD TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND WARMING...WHICH WOULD
EFFECTIVELY DRY OUT THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS MOST
OR ALL OF OUR AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL DATA AGREE ON
THIS. THIS WAS THE REASONING BEHIND REMOVING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FROM THE FORECAST FOR THE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME. ONCE
THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL MOISTEN UP
ONCE AGAIN...SETTING THE STAGE FOR SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY OUT OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY
REGIONS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PREVAILING FLOW IS THEN
FORECAST TO BECOME NEARLY PARALLEL ALONG THE BOUNDARY ON
THURSDAY...ALLOWING THE FRONT TO TEMPORARILY STALL ACROSS THE
REGION. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RIDING UP AND OVER THIS FRONT WILL
KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES DURING MOST OF THE PERIOD STILL LOOK TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL...PARTICULARLY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHEN THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S WILL BE COMMON SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A FEW SPOTS MAY
EVEN HIT 90. ONCE THE FRONT ARRIVES AND CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE TO
MORE NORMAL VALUES.  WE COULD EVEN SEE A DRY AND COOL ENOUGH AIR
MASS MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY TO ALLOW FOR HIGHS AROUND 80 TO
BE ACHIEVED. OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH OUT THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO
BOTTOM OUT IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DID DEVELOP THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAVE
DIED OFF. STILL HAVE A OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT...HOWEVER LITTLE WIND HAS BEEN SEEN WITH THIS
IN THIS OVERNIGHT HOUR. OVERALL MOST SITES ARE REMAINING VFR...BUT
GIVEN PERSISTENCE WOULD EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP AT MOST SITES
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. RESTRICTIONS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR TO
IFR BEFORE IT DISSIPATES AFTER SUNRISE. MORE AIRMASS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW AND WILL HAVE BEST CHANCES
GENERALLY NEAR THE TN/VA BORDER. THEREFORE KEPT WITH VCTS AT ALL
THE SITES IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALSO ADDED FOG TOWARD THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD GIVEN PERSISTENCE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...BUT IF A STORM HITS A TAF SITE COULD SEE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS
AND VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...DJ




000
FXUS63 KJKL 050537
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
137 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1107 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTED LATE THIS EVENING.
HAVE EXTENDED THE MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE FORECAST...EVEN THOUGH
IN REALITY THE POP IS PROBABLY LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. THE ACTIVITY
CONTINUE TO BE ON AN OVERALL DECLINE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 821 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TRIGGERING THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING INTO OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING. WITH LOSS OF HEATING...CONVECTION
WILL SHOW AN OVERALL DIMINISHING TREND. HOWEVER...IT WILL HOLD ON
LONG ENOUGH TO BRING PRECIP TO SOME LOCATIONS IN OUR NORTH...AND
HAVE EXTENDED THE MENTION OF PRECIP INTO THE EVENING. SOME VERY
ISOLATED CELLS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING FURTHER SOUTH...BUT COVERAGE
IS SO SLIGHT THAT IT HARDLY WARRANTS A 20 PERCENT POP.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN CONTROL ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. STRAY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DOT
EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING ONCE AGAIN BEFORE
DYING OFF WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY GET TALL
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND WILL MENTION THIS IN THE
HWO.

AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG WILL ALSO BE SEEN OVERNIGHT...BUT GIVEN
A LITTLE LESS AREAL COVERAGE OF THE STORMS AND WINDS SLOWLY
VEERING TO THE EAST AND MAYBE EVEN A BIT SOUTHEAST BY DAWN...WOULD
EXPECT IT TO BE A BIT LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. LOWS WILL
BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...WITH A FEW SPOTS REACHING
DOWN INTO THE LOWER 60S.

SATURDAY WILL FEATURE ANOTHER HOT DAY...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION. THE BETTER COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN OUR SOUTHEAST...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
MODELS CONTINUE TO LOOK PRETTY AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
COVERAGE...WHICH IN GENERAL HAS BEEN A BIT OVERDONE IN THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO NEAR THE 90 DEGREE MARK.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE WINDS...WHILE LIGHT...WILL HAVE
VEERED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS SHOULD KEEP FOG PRETTY RESTRICTED TO
THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS...AND ALLOW FOR A BIT MORE OF A
RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT...ALTHOUGH MOST SPOTS WILL DIFFER WITHIN THE 5
DEGREE MARK.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL
FEATURE A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND EASTERN CONUS...WITH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH
BUILDING TO THE WEST ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY ON
SUNDAY. THE RESULTING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR EASTERN
MOUNTAINS WILL LEAD TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND WARMING...WHICH WOULD
EFFECTIVELY DRY OUT THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS MOST
OR ALL OF OUR AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL DATA AGREE ON
THIS. THIS WAS THE REASONING BEHIND REMOVING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FROM THE FORECAST FOR THE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME. ONCE
THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL MOISTEN UP
ONCE AGAIN...SETTING THE STAGE FOR SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY OUT OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY
REGIONS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PREVAILING FLOW IS THEN
FORECAST TO BECOME NEARLY PARALLEL ALONG THE BOUNDARY ON
THURSDAY...ALLOWING THE FRONT TO TEMPORARILY STALL ACROSS THE
REGION. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RIDING UP AND OVER THIS FRONT WILL
KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES DURING MOST OF THE PERIOD STILL LOOK TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL...PARTICULARLY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHEN THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S WILL BE COMMON SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A FEW SPOTS MAY
EVEN HIT 90. ONCE THE FRONT ARRIVES AND CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE TO
MORE NORMAL VALUES.  WE COULD EVEN SEE A DRY AND COOL ENOUGH AIR
MASS MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY TO ALLOW FOR HIGHS AROUND 80 TO
BE ACHIEVED. OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH OUT THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO
BOTTOM OUT IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DID DEVELOP THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAVE
DIED OFF. STILL HAVE A OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT...HOWEVER LITTLE WIND HAS BEEN SEEN WITH THIS
IN THIS OVERNIGHT HOUR. OVERALL MOST SITES ARE REMAINING VFR...BUT
GIVEN PERSISTENCE WOULD EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP AT MOST SITES
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. RESTRICTIONS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR TO
IFR BEFORE IT DISSIPATES AFTER SUNRISE. MORE AIRMASS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW AND WILL HAVE BEST CHANCES
GENERALLY NEAR THE TN/VA BORDER. THEREFORE KEPT WITH VCTS AT ALL
THE SITES IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALSO ADDED FOG TOWARD THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD GIVEN PERSISTENCE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...BUT IF A STORM HITS A TAF SITE COULD SEE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS
AND VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...DJ





000
FXUS63 KJKL 050307
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1107 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1107 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTED LATE THIS EVENING.
HAVE EXTENDED THE MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE FORECAST...EVEN THOUGH
IN REALITY THE POP IS PROBABLY LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. THE ACTIVITY
CONTINUE TO BE ON AN OVERALL DECLINE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 821 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TRIGGERING THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING INTO OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING. WITH LOSS OF HEATING...CONVECTION
WILL SHOW AN OVERALL DIMINISHING TREND. HOWEVER...IT WILL HOLD ON
LONG ENOUGH TO BRING PRECIP TO SOME LOCATIONS IN OUR NORTH...AND
HAVE EXTENDED THE MENTION OF PRECIP INTO THE EVENING. SOME VERY
ISOLATED CELLS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING FURTHER SOUTH...BUT COVERAGE
IS SO SLIGHT THAT IT HARDLY WARRANTS A 20 PERCENT POP.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN CONTROL ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. STRAY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DOT
EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING ONCE AGAIN BEFORE
DYING OFF WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY GET TALL
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND WILL MENTION THIS IN THE
HWO.

AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG WILL ALSO BE SEEN OVERNIGHT...BUT GIVEN
A LITTLE LESS AREAL COVERAGE OF THE STORMS AND WINDS SLOWLY
VEERING TO THE EAST AND MAYBE EVEN A BIT SOUTHEAST BY DAWN...WOULD
EXPECT IT TO BE A BIT LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. LOWS WILL
BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...WITH A FEW SPOTS REACHING
DOWN INTO THE LOWER 60S.

SATURDAY WILL FEATURE ANOTHER HOT DAY...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION. THE BETTER COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN OUR SOUTHEAST...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
MODELS CONTINUE TO LOOK PRETTY AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
COVERAGE...WHICH IN GENERAL HAS BEEN A BIT OVERDONE IN THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO NEAR THE 90 DEGREE MARK.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE WINDS...WHILE LIGHT...WILL HAVE
VEERED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS SHOULD KEEP FOG PRETTY RESTRICTED TO
THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS...AND ALLOW FOR A BIT MORE OF A
RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT...ALTHOUGH MOST SPOTS WILL DIFFER WITHIN THE 5
DEGREE MARK.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL
FEATURE A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND EASTERN CONUS...WITH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH
BUILDING TO THE WEST ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY ON
SUNDAY. THE RESULTING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR EASTERN
MOUNTAINS WILL LEAD TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND WARMING...WHICH WOULD
EFFECTIVELY DRY OUT THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS MOST
OR ALL OF OUR AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL DATA AGREE ON
THIS. THIS WAS THE REASONING BEHIND REMOVING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FROM THE FORECAST FOR THE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME. ONCE
THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL MOISTEN UP
ONCE AGAIN...SETTING THE STAGE FOR SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY OUT OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY
REGIONS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PREVAILING FLOW IS THEN
FORECAST TO BECOME NEARLY PARALLEL ALONG THE BOUNDARY ON
THURSDAY...ALLOWING THE FRONT TO TEMPORARILY STALL ACROSS THE
REGION. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RIDING UP AND OVER THIS FRONT WILL
KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES DURING MOST OF THE PERIOD STILL LOOK TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL...PARTICULARLY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHEN THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S WILL BE COMMON SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A FEW SPOTS MAY
EVEN HIT 90. ONCE THE FRONT ARRIVES AND CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE TO
MORE NORMAL VALUES.  WE COULD EVEN SEE A DRY AND COOL ENOUGH AIR
MASS MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY TO ALLOW FOR HIGHS AROUND 80 TO
BE ACHIEVED. OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH OUT THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO
BOTTOM OUT IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 821 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT A FEW LOCATIONS VERY EARLY IN
THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR NORTH. THEY COULD BRING VERY
LOCALIZED IFR. OTHERWISE...VFR WILL LAST INTO THE NIGHT UNTIL
VALLEY FOG STARTS TO DEVELOP. THE FOG WILL SPREAD AND GROW DEEPER
WITH TIME...EVENTUALLY BRINGING SOME RESTRICTIONS AT TAF SITES.
THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND LEAVE VFR. THE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH
HEATING DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...RESULTING IN BRIEF LOCALIZED
IFR.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL





000
FXUS63 KJKL 050021
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
821 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 821 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TRIGGERING THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING INTO OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING. WITH LOSS OF HEATING...CONVECTION
WILL SHOW AN OVERALL DIMINISHING TREND. HOWEVER...IT WILL HOLD ON
LONG ENOUGH TO BRING PRECIP TO SOME LOCATIONS IN OUR NORTH...AND
HAVE EXTENDED THE MENTION OF PRECIP INTO THE EVENING. SOME VERY
ISOLATED CELLS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING FURTHER SOUTH...BUT COVERAGE
IS SO SLIGHT THAT IT HARDLY WARRANTS A 20 PERCENT POP.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN CONTROL ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. STRAY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DOT
EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING ONCE AGAIN BEFORE
DYING OFF WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY GET TALL
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND WILL MENTION THIS IN THE
HWO.

AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG WILL ALSO BE SEEN OVERNIGHT...BUT GIVEN
A LITTLE LESS AREAL COVERAGE OF THE STORMS AND WINDS SLOWLY
VEERING TO THE EAST AND MAYBE EVEN A BIT SOUTHEAST BY DAWN...WOULD
EXPECT IT TO BE A BIT LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. LOWS WILL
BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...WITH A FEW SPOTS REACHING
DOWN INTO THE LOWER 60S.

SATURDAY WILL FEATURE ANOTHER HOT DAY...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION. THE BETTER COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN OUR SOUTHEAST...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
MODELS CONTINUE TO LOOK PRETTY AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
COVERAGE...WHICH IN GENERAL HAS BEEN A BIT OVERDONE IN THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO NEAR THE 90 DEGREE MARK.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE WINDS...WHILE LIGHT...WILL HAVE
VEERED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS SHOULD KEEP FOG PRETTY RESTRICTED TO
THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS...AND ALLOW FOR A BIT MORE OF A
RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT...ALTHOUGH MOST SPOTS WILL DIFFER WITHIN THE 5
DEGREE MARK.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL
FEATURE A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND EASTERN CONUS...WITH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH
BUILDING TO THE WEST ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY ON
SUNDAY. THE RESULTING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR EASTERN
MOUNTAINS WILL LEAD TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND WARMING...WHICH WOULD
EFFECTIVELY DRY OUT THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS MOST
OR ALL OF OUR AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL DATA AGREE ON
THIS. THIS WAS THE REASONING BEHIND REMOVING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FROM THE FORECAST FOR THE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME. ONCE
THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL MOISTEN UP
ONCE AGAIN...SETTING THE STAGE FOR SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY OUT OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY
REGIONS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PREVAILING FLOW IS THEN
FORECAST TO BECOME NEARLY PARALLEL ALONG THE BOUNDARY ON
THURSDAY...ALLOWING THE FRONT TO TEMPORARILY STALL ACROSS THE
REGION. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RIDING UP AND OVER THIS FRONT WILL
KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES DURING MOST OF THE PERIOD STILL LOOK TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL...PARTICULARLY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHEN THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S WILL BE COMMON SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A FEW SPOTS MAY
EVEN HIT 90. ONCE THE FRONT ARRIVES AND CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE TO
MORE NORMAL VALUES.  WE COULD EVEN SEE A DRY AND COOL ENOUGH AIR
MASS MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY TO ALLOW FOR HIGHS AROUND 80 TO
BE ACHIEVED. OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH OUT THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO
BOTTOM OUT IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 821 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT A FEW LOCATIONS VERY EARLY IN
THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR NORTH. THEY COULD BRING VERY
LOCALIZED IFR. OTHERWISE...VFR WILL LAST INTO THE NIGHT UNTIL
VALLEY FOG STARTS TO DEVELOP. THE FOG WILL SPREAD AND GROW DEEPER
WITH TIME...EVENTUALLY BRINGING SOME RESTRICTIONS AT TAF SITES.
THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND LEAVE VFR. THE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH
HEATING DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...RESULTING IN BRIEF LOCALIZED
IFR.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL





000
FXUS63 KJKL 050021
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
821 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 821 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TRIGGERING THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING INTO OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING. WITH LOSS OF HEATING...CONVECTION
WILL SHOW AN OVERALL DIMINISHING TREND. HOWEVER...IT WILL HOLD ON
LONG ENOUGH TO BRING PRECIP TO SOME LOCATIONS IN OUR NORTH...AND
HAVE EXTENDED THE MENTION OF PRECIP INTO THE EVENING. SOME VERY
ISOLATED CELLS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING FURTHER SOUTH...BUT COVERAGE
IS SO SLIGHT THAT IT HARDLY WARRANTS A 20 PERCENT POP.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN CONTROL ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. STRAY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DOT
EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING ONCE AGAIN BEFORE
DYING OFF WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY GET TALL
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND WILL MENTION THIS IN THE
HWO.

AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG WILL ALSO BE SEEN OVERNIGHT...BUT GIVEN
A LITTLE LESS AREAL COVERAGE OF THE STORMS AND WINDS SLOWLY
VEERING TO THE EAST AND MAYBE EVEN A BIT SOUTHEAST BY DAWN...WOULD
EXPECT IT TO BE A BIT LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. LOWS WILL
BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...WITH A FEW SPOTS REACHING
DOWN INTO THE LOWER 60S.

SATURDAY WILL FEATURE ANOTHER HOT DAY...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION. THE BETTER COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN OUR SOUTHEAST...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
MODELS CONTINUE TO LOOK PRETTY AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
COVERAGE...WHICH IN GENERAL HAS BEEN A BIT OVERDONE IN THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO NEAR THE 90 DEGREE MARK.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE WINDS...WHILE LIGHT...WILL HAVE
VEERED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS SHOULD KEEP FOG PRETTY RESTRICTED TO
THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS...AND ALLOW FOR A BIT MORE OF A
RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT...ALTHOUGH MOST SPOTS WILL DIFFER WITHIN THE 5
DEGREE MARK.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL
FEATURE A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND EASTERN CONUS...WITH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH
BUILDING TO THE WEST ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY ON
SUNDAY. THE RESULTING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR EASTERN
MOUNTAINS WILL LEAD TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND WARMING...WHICH WOULD
EFFECTIVELY DRY OUT THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS MOST
OR ALL OF OUR AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL DATA AGREE ON
THIS. THIS WAS THE REASONING BEHIND REMOVING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FROM THE FORECAST FOR THE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME. ONCE
THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL MOISTEN UP
ONCE AGAIN...SETTING THE STAGE FOR SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY OUT OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY
REGIONS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PREVAILING FLOW IS THEN
FORECAST TO BECOME NEARLY PARALLEL ALONG THE BOUNDARY ON
THURSDAY...ALLOWING THE FRONT TO TEMPORARILY STALL ACROSS THE
REGION. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RIDING UP AND OVER THIS FRONT WILL
KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES DURING MOST OF THE PERIOD STILL LOOK TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL...PARTICULARLY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHEN THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S WILL BE COMMON SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A FEW SPOTS MAY
EVEN HIT 90. ONCE THE FRONT ARRIVES AND CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE TO
MORE NORMAL VALUES.  WE COULD EVEN SEE A DRY AND COOL ENOUGH AIR
MASS MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY TO ALLOW FOR HIGHS AROUND 80 TO
BE ACHIEVED. OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH OUT THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO
BOTTOM OUT IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 821 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT A FEW LOCATIONS VERY EARLY IN
THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR NORTH. THEY COULD BRING VERY
LOCALIZED IFR. OTHERWISE...VFR WILL LAST INTO THE NIGHT UNTIL
VALLEY FOG STARTS TO DEVELOP. THE FOG WILL SPREAD AND GROW DEEPER
WITH TIME...EVENTUALLY BRINGING SOME RESTRICTIONS AT TAF SITES.
THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND LEAVE VFR. THE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH
HEATING DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...RESULTING IN BRIEF LOCALIZED
IFR.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL




000
FXUS63 KJKL 041951
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
351 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN CONTROL ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. STRAY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DOT
EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING ONCE AGAIN BEFORE
DYING OFF WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY GET TALL
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND WILL MENTION THIS IN THE
HWO.

AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG WILL ALSO BE SEEN OVERNIGHT...BUT GIVEN
A LITTLE LESS AREAL COVERAGE OF THE STORMS AND WINDS SLOWLY
VEERING TO THE EAST AND MAYBE EVEN A BIT SOUTHEAST BY DAWN...WOULD
EXPECT IT TO BE A BIT LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. LOWS WILL
BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...WITH A FEW SPOTS REACHING
DOWN INTO THE LOWER 60S.

SATURDAY WILL FEATURE ANOTHER HOT DAY...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION. THE BETTER COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN OUR SOUTHEAST...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
MODELS CONTINUE TO LOOK PRETTY AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
COVERAGE...WHICH IN GENERAL HAS BEEN A BIT OVERDONE IN THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO NEAR THE 90 DEGREE MARK.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE WINDS...WHILE LIGHT...WILL HAVE
VEERED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS SHOULD KEEP FOG PRETTY RESTRICTED TO
THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS...AND ALLOW FOR A BIT MORE OF A
RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT...ALTHOUGH MOST SPOTS WILL DIFFER WITHIN THE 5
DEGREE MARK.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL
FEATURE A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND EASTERN CONUS...WITH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH
BUILDING TO THE WEST ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY ON
SUNDAY. THE RESULTING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR EASTERN
MOUNTAINS WILL LEAD TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND WARMING...WHICH WOULD
EFFECTIVELY DRY OUT THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS MOST
OR ALL OF OUR AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL DATA AGREE ON
THIS. THIS WAS THE REASONING BEHIND REMOVING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FROM THE FORECAST FOR THE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME. ONCE
THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL MOISTEN UP
ONCE AGAIN...SETTING THE STAGE FOR SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY OUT OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY
REGIONS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PREVAILING FLOW IS THEN
FORECAST TO BECOME NEARLY PARALLEL ALONG THE BOUNDARY ON
THURSDAY...ALLOWING THE FRONT TO TEMPORARILY STALL ACROSS THE
REGION. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RIDING UP AND OVER THIS FRONT WILL
KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES DURING MOST OF THE PERIOD STILL LOOK TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL...PARTICULARLY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHEN THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S WILL BE COMMON SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A FEW SPOTS MAY
EVEN HIT 90. ONCE THE FRONT ARRIVES AND CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE TO
MORE NORMAL VALUES.  WE COULD EVEN SEE A DRY AND COOL ENOUGH AIR
MASS MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY TO ALLOW FOR HIGHS AROUND 80 TO
BE ACHIEVED. OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH OUT THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO
BOTTOM OUT IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD ON FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THOSE SPOTS THAT SEE A
STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. THE AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE
ISOLATED...SO HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANYTHING IN THE TAFS. MVFR OR
WORSE FOG WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TO LAST NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SOME TEMPORARY IFR OR
WORSE VISIBILITIES/CEILINGS GENERALLY BETWEEN 09 AND 12Z. THE FOG
WILL BURN OFF BY AROUND 13Z...WITH A RETURN TO VFR THEREAFTER.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN





000
FXUS63 KJKL 041951
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
351 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN CONTROL ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. STRAY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DOT
EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING ONCE AGAIN BEFORE
DYING OFF WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY GET TALL
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND WILL MENTION THIS IN THE
HWO.

AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG WILL ALSO BE SEEN OVERNIGHT...BUT GIVEN
A LITTLE LESS AREAL COVERAGE OF THE STORMS AND WINDS SLOWLY
VEERING TO THE EAST AND MAYBE EVEN A BIT SOUTHEAST BY DAWN...WOULD
EXPECT IT TO BE A BIT LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. LOWS WILL
BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...WITH A FEW SPOTS REACHING
DOWN INTO THE LOWER 60S.

SATURDAY WILL FEATURE ANOTHER HOT DAY...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION. THE BETTER COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN OUR SOUTHEAST...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
MODELS CONTINUE TO LOOK PRETTY AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
COVERAGE...WHICH IN GENERAL HAS BEEN A BIT OVERDONE IN THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO NEAR THE 90 DEGREE MARK.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE WINDS...WHILE LIGHT...WILL HAVE
VEERED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS SHOULD KEEP FOG PRETTY RESTRICTED TO
THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS...AND ALLOW FOR A BIT MORE OF A
RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT...ALTHOUGH MOST SPOTS WILL DIFFER WITHIN THE 5
DEGREE MARK.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL
FEATURE A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND EASTERN CONUS...WITH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH
BUILDING TO THE WEST ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY ON
SUNDAY. THE RESULTING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR EASTERN
MOUNTAINS WILL LEAD TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND WARMING...WHICH WOULD
EFFECTIVELY DRY OUT THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS MOST
OR ALL OF OUR AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL DATA AGREE ON
THIS. THIS WAS THE REASONING BEHIND REMOVING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FROM THE FORECAST FOR THE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME. ONCE
THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL MOISTEN UP
ONCE AGAIN...SETTING THE STAGE FOR SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY OUT OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY
REGIONS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PREVAILING FLOW IS THEN
FORECAST TO BECOME NEARLY PARALLEL ALONG THE BOUNDARY ON
THURSDAY...ALLOWING THE FRONT TO TEMPORARILY STALL ACROSS THE
REGION. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RIDING UP AND OVER THIS FRONT WILL
KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES DURING MOST OF THE PERIOD STILL LOOK TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL...PARTICULARLY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHEN THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S WILL BE COMMON SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A FEW SPOTS MAY
EVEN HIT 90. ONCE THE FRONT ARRIVES AND CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE TO
MORE NORMAL VALUES.  WE COULD EVEN SEE A DRY AND COOL ENOUGH AIR
MASS MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY TO ALLOW FOR HIGHS AROUND 80 TO
BE ACHIEVED. OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH OUT THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO
BOTTOM OUT IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD ON FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THOSE SPOTS THAT SEE A
STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. THE AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE
ISOLATED...SO HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANYTHING IN THE TAFS. MVFR OR
WORSE FOG WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TO LAST NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SOME TEMPORARY IFR OR
WORSE VISIBILITIES/CEILINGS GENERALLY BETWEEN 09 AND 12Z. THE FOG
WILL BURN OFF BY AROUND 13Z...WITH A RETURN TO VFR THEREAFTER.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN




000
FXUS63 KJKL 041807 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
207 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

STRAY SHOWERS HAVE FORMED IN THE LAST FEW HOURS. HAVE FRESHENED
UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS...OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1156 AM EDT FRI SEP 4
2015

THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON. CU HAS BEEN SLOWER TO
FORM TODAY...AND ANY RESIDUAL FORCING FROM UPSTREAM ACTIVITY LOOKS
WEAK AT BEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 90 DEGREES LOOK LIKE A
GOOD BET...PERHAPS JUST A TOUCH WARMER IN PLACES COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE THE THREAT OF
ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT HOUR BEFORE
BURNING OFF. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OVER THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER AND
MODEST HUMIDITY LEVELS. THIS HUMIDITY MAY HELP SPARK A FEW WIDELY
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MODELS HAVE BACKED
OFF ON THE THREAT SLIGHTLY. BEST CHANCES MAY BE IN FAR SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY OR IN THE BLUEGRASS REGION...BASED ON THE LATEST HI-RES
MODELS. AS FAR AS SATURDAY GOES...HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE EAST MAY
PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING OVER MUCH
OF EASTERN KENTUCKY IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WOULD STILL
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND VERY HIT OR MISS IN
NATURE. THUS...WILL STICK WITH 20 POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE STORY TO BEGIN THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH
CHANCES OF AFTERNOON STORMS MAINLY IN THE SE PORTIONS OF THE
REGION/NEAR THE VA/TN BORDER TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL
LEAD TO CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND DID BUMP AFTERNOON HIGHS
UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES BASED OF RECENT TRENDS. MODEL WISE FEEL THE
GFS SEEMS TO BE QUITE AGGRESSIVE WITH POPS THROUGH THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE PERIOD AND THEREFORE LEANED TOWARD THE OVERALL
BLEND.

THE RIDGING DOES LOOK TO BREAKDOWN...AS WESTERN CONUS TROUGH
NEGATIVELY TILTS AND CUTS OFF ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. THIS WILL
LEAD ZONAL FLOW AND EVENTUAL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SHORTWAVE TROUGHING TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS CHANGE IN
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL AID IN EVENTUALLY SWEEPING A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE
THE OVERALL BEST CHANCE OF STORMS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND
RIGHT NOW STUCK WITH BLEND WHICH BRINGS CHANCE POPS...HOWEVER IF
MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS INTACT WOULD THINK LIKELY POPS WILL
EVENTUALLY BE INTRODUCED. THIS CHANGE IN PATTERN WILL ALSO BRING
TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD ON FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THOSE SPOTS THAT SEE A
STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. THE AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE
ISOLATED...SO HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANYTHING IN THE TAFS. MVFR OR
WORSE FOG WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TO LAST NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SOME TEMPORARY IFR OR
WORSE VISIBILITIES/CEILINGS GENERALLY BETWEEN 09 AND 12Z. THE FOG
WILL BURN OFF BY AROUND 13Z...WITH A RETURN TO VFR THEREAFTER.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN




000
FXUS63 KJKL 041807 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
207 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

STRAY SHOWERS HAVE FORMED IN THE LAST FEW HOURS. HAVE FRESHENED
UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS...OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1156 AM EDT FRI SEP 4
2015

THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON. CU HAS BEEN SLOWER TO
FORM TODAY...AND ANY RESIDUAL FORCING FROM UPSTREAM ACTIVITY LOOKS
WEAK AT BEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 90 DEGREES LOOK LIKE A
GOOD BET...PERHAPS JUST A TOUCH WARMER IN PLACES COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE THE THREAT OF
ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT HOUR BEFORE
BURNING OFF. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OVER THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER AND
MODEST HUMIDITY LEVELS. THIS HUMIDITY MAY HELP SPARK A FEW WIDELY
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MODELS HAVE BACKED
OFF ON THE THREAT SLIGHTLY. BEST CHANCES MAY BE IN FAR SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY OR IN THE BLUEGRASS REGION...BASED ON THE LATEST HI-RES
MODELS. AS FAR AS SATURDAY GOES...HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE EAST MAY
PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING OVER MUCH
OF EASTERN KENTUCKY IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WOULD STILL
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND VERY HIT OR MISS IN
NATURE. THUS...WILL STICK WITH 20 POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE STORY TO BEGIN THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH
CHANCES OF AFTERNOON STORMS MAINLY IN THE SE PORTIONS OF THE
REGION/NEAR THE VA/TN BORDER TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL
LEAD TO CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND DID BUMP AFTERNOON HIGHS
UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES BASED OF RECENT TRENDS. MODEL WISE FEEL THE
GFS SEEMS TO BE QUITE AGGRESSIVE WITH POPS THROUGH THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE PERIOD AND THEREFORE LEANED TOWARD THE OVERALL
BLEND.

THE RIDGING DOES LOOK TO BREAKDOWN...AS WESTERN CONUS TROUGH
NEGATIVELY TILTS AND CUTS OFF ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. THIS WILL
LEAD ZONAL FLOW AND EVENTUAL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SHORTWAVE TROUGHING TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS CHANGE IN
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL AID IN EVENTUALLY SWEEPING A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE
THE OVERALL BEST CHANCE OF STORMS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND
RIGHT NOW STUCK WITH BLEND WHICH BRINGS CHANCE POPS...HOWEVER IF
MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS INTACT WOULD THINK LIKELY POPS WILL
EVENTUALLY BE INTRODUCED. THIS CHANGE IN PATTERN WILL ALSO BRING
TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD ON FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THOSE SPOTS THAT SEE A
STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. THE AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE
ISOLATED...SO HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANYTHING IN THE TAFS. MVFR OR
WORSE FOG WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TO LAST NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SOME TEMPORARY IFR OR
WORSE VISIBILITIES/CEILINGS GENERALLY BETWEEN 09 AND 12Z. THE FOG
WILL BURN OFF BY AROUND 13Z...WITH A RETURN TO VFR THEREAFTER.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN





000
FXUS63 KJKL 041807 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
207 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

STRAY SHOWERS HAVE FORMED IN THE LAST FEW HOURS. HAVE FRESHENED
UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS...OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1156 AM EDT FRI SEP 4
2015

THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON. CU HAS BEEN SLOWER TO
FORM TODAY...AND ANY RESIDUAL FORCING FROM UPSTREAM ACTIVITY LOOKS
WEAK AT BEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 90 DEGREES LOOK LIKE A
GOOD BET...PERHAPS JUST A TOUCH WARMER IN PLACES COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE THE THREAT OF
ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT HOUR BEFORE
BURNING OFF. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OVER THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER AND
MODEST HUMIDITY LEVELS. THIS HUMIDITY MAY HELP SPARK A FEW WIDELY
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MODELS HAVE BACKED
OFF ON THE THREAT SLIGHTLY. BEST CHANCES MAY BE IN FAR SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY OR IN THE BLUEGRASS REGION...BASED ON THE LATEST HI-RES
MODELS. AS FAR AS SATURDAY GOES...HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE EAST MAY
PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING OVER MUCH
OF EASTERN KENTUCKY IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WOULD STILL
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND VERY HIT OR MISS IN
NATURE. THUS...WILL STICK WITH 20 POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE STORY TO BEGIN THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH
CHANCES OF AFTERNOON STORMS MAINLY IN THE SE PORTIONS OF THE
REGION/NEAR THE VA/TN BORDER TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL
LEAD TO CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND DID BUMP AFTERNOON HIGHS
UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES BASED OF RECENT TRENDS. MODEL WISE FEEL THE
GFS SEEMS TO BE QUITE AGGRESSIVE WITH POPS THROUGH THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE PERIOD AND THEREFORE LEANED TOWARD THE OVERALL
BLEND.

THE RIDGING DOES LOOK TO BREAKDOWN...AS WESTERN CONUS TROUGH
NEGATIVELY TILTS AND CUTS OFF ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. THIS WILL
LEAD ZONAL FLOW AND EVENTUAL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SHORTWAVE TROUGHING TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS CHANGE IN
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL AID IN EVENTUALLY SWEEPING A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE
THE OVERALL BEST CHANCE OF STORMS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND
RIGHT NOW STUCK WITH BLEND WHICH BRINGS CHANCE POPS...HOWEVER IF
MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS INTACT WOULD THINK LIKELY POPS WILL
EVENTUALLY BE INTRODUCED. THIS CHANGE IN PATTERN WILL ALSO BRING
TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD ON FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THOSE SPOTS THAT SEE A
STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. THE AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE
ISOLATED...SO HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANYTHING IN THE TAFS. MVFR OR
WORSE FOG WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TO LAST NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SOME TEMPORARY IFR OR
WORSE VISIBILITIES/CEILINGS GENERALLY BETWEEN 09 AND 12Z. THE FOG
WILL BURN OFF BY AROUND 13Z...WITH A RETURN TO VFR THEREAFTER.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN




000
FXUS63 KJKL 041807 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
207 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

STRAY SHOWERS HAVE FORMED IN THE LAST FEW HOURS. HAVE FRESHENED
UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS...OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1156 AM EDT FRI SEP 4
2015

THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON. CU HAS BEEN SLOWER TO
FORM TODAY...AND ANY RESIDUAL FORCING FROM UPSTREAM ACTIVITY LOOKS
WEAK AT BEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 90 DEGREES LOOK LIKE A
GOOD BET...PERHAPS JUST A TOUCH WARMER IN PLACES COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE THE THREAT OF
ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT HOUR BEFORE
BURNING OFF. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OVER THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER AND
MODEST HUMIDITY LEVELS. THIS HUMIDITY MAY HELP SPARK A FEW WIDELY
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MODELS HAVE BACKED
OFF ON THE THREAT SLIGHTLY. BEST CHANCES MAY BE IN FAR SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY OR IN THE BLUEGRASS REGION...BASED ON THE LATEST HI-RES
MODELS. AS FAR AS SATURDAY GOES...HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE EAST MAY
PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING OVER MUCH
OF EASTERN KENTUCKY IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WOULD STILL
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND VERY HIT OR MISS IN
NATURE. THUS...WILL STICK WITH 20 POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE STORY TO BEGIN THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH
CHANCES OF AFTERNOON STORMS MAINLY IN THE SE PORTIONS OF THE
REGION/NEAR THE VA/TN BORDER TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL
LEAD TO CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND DID BUMP AFTERNOON HIGHS
UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES BASED OF RECENT TRENDS. MODEL WISE FEEL THE
GFS SEEMS TO BE QUITE AGGRESSIVE WITH POPS THROUGH THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE PERIOD AND THEREFORE LEANED TOWARD THE OVERALL
BLEND.

THE RIDGING DOES LOOK TO BREAKDOWN...AS WESTERN CONUS TROUGH
NEGATIVELY TILTS AND CUTS OFF ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. THIS WILL
LEAD ZONAL FLOW AND EVENTUAL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SHORTWAVE TROUGHING TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS CHANGE IN
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL AID IN EVENTUALLY SWEEPING A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE
THE OVERALL BEST CHANCE OF STORMS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND
RIGHT NOW STUCK WITH BLEND WHICH BRINGS CHANCE POPS...HOWEVER IF
MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS INTACT WOULD THINK LIKELY POPS WILL
EVENTUALLY BE INTRODUCED. THIS CHANGE IN PATTERN WILL ALSO BRING
TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD ON FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THOSE SPOTS THAT SEE A
STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. THE AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE
ISOLATED...SO HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANYTHING IN THE TAFS. MVFR OR
WORSE FOG WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TO LAST NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SOME TEMPORARY IFR OR
WORSE VISIBILITIES/CEILINGS GENERALLY BETWEEN 09 AND 12Z. THE FOG
WILL BURN OFF BY AROUND 13Z...WITH A RETURN TO VFR THEREAFTER.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN





000
FXUS63 KJKL 041556 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1156 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1156 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON. CU HAS BEEN SLOWER TO
FORM TODAY...AND ANY RESIDUAL FORCING FROM UPSTREAM ACTIVITY LOOKS
WEAK AT BEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 90 DEGREES LOOK LIKE A
GOOD BET...PERHAPS JUST A TOUCH WARMER IN PLACES COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE THE THREAT OF
ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT HOUR BEFORE
BURNING OFF. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OVER THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER AND
MODEST HUMIDITY LEVELS. THIS HUMIDITY MAY HELP SPARK A FEW WIDELY
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MODELS HAVE BACKED
OFF ON THE THREAT SLIGHTLY. BEST CHANCES MAY BE IN FAR SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY OR IN THE BLUEGRASS REGION...BASED ON THE LATEST HI-RES
MODELS. AS FAR AS SATURDAY GOES...HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE EAST MAY
PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING OVER MUCH
OF EASTERN KENTUCKY IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WOULD STILL
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND VERY HIT OR MISS IN
NATURE. THUS...WILL STICK WITH 20 POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE STORY TO BEGIN THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH
CHANCES OF AFTERNOON STORMS MAINLY IN THE SE PORTIONS OF THE
REGION/NEAR THE VA/TN BORDER TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL
LEAD TO CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND DID BUMP AFTERNOON HIGHS
UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES BASED OF RECENT TRENDS. MODEL WISE FEEL THE
GFS SEEMS TO BE QUITE AGGRESSIVE WITH POPS THROUGH THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE PERIOD AND THEREFORE LEANED TOWARD THE OVERALL
BLEND.

THE RIDGING DOES LOOK TO BREAKDOWN...AS WESTERN CONUS TROUGH
NEGATIVELY TILTS AND CUTS OFF ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. THIS WILL
LEAD ZONAL FLOW AND EVENTUAL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SHORTWAVE TROUGHING TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS CHANGE IN
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL AID IN EVENTUALLY SWEEPING A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE
THE OVERALL BEST CHANCE OF STORMS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND
RIGHT NOW STUCK WITH BLEND WHICH BRINGS CHANCE POPS...HOWEVER IF
MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS INTACT WOULD THINK LIKELY POPS WILL
EVENTUALLY BE INTRODUCED. THIS CHANGE IN PATTERN WILL ALSO BRING
TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

MORNING FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO...GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...AS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR...MORE VALLEY FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT WITH
VISIBILITIES COMING DOWN AT THE TAF SITES. WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR
TREND TO THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WITH THE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...KAS





000
FXUS63 KJKL 041556 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1156 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1156 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON. CU HAS BEEN SLOWER TO
FORM TODAY...AND ANY RESIDUAL FORCING FROM UPSTREAM ACTIVITY LOOKS
WEAK AT BEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 90 DEGREES LOOK LIKE A
GOOD BET...PERHAPS JUST A TOUCH WARMER IN PLACES COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE THE THREAT OF
ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT HOUR BEFORE
BURNING OFF. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OVER THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER AND
MODEST HUMIDITY LEVELS. THIS HUMIDITY MAY HELP SPARK A FEW WIDELY
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MODELS HAVE BACKED
OFF ON THE THREAT SLIGHTLY. BEST CHANCES MAY BE IN FAR SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY OR IN THE BLUEGRASS REGION...BASED ON THE LATEST HI-RES
MODELS. AS FAR AS SATURDAY GOES...HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE EAST MAY
PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING OVER MUCH
OF EASTERN KENTUCKY IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WOULD STILL
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND VERY HIT OR MISS IN
NATURE. THUS...WILL STICK WITH 20 POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE STORY TO BEGIN THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH
CHANCES OF AFTERNOON STORMS MAINLY IN THE SE PORTIONS OF THE
REGION/NEAR THE VA/TN BORDER TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL
LEAD TO CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND DID BUMP AFTERNOON HIGHS
UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES BASED OF RECENT TRENDS. MODEL WISE FEEL THE
GFS SEEMS TO BE QUITE AGGRESSIVE WITH POPS THROUGH THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE PERIOD AND THEREFORE LEANED TOWARD THE OVERALL
BLEND.

THE RIDGING DOES LOOK TO BREAKDOWN...AS WESTERN CONUS TROUGH
NEGATIVELY TILTS AND CUTS OFF ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. THIS WILL
LEAD ZONAL FLOW AND EVENTUAL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SHORTWAVE TROUGHING TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS CHANGE IN
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL AID IN EVENTUALLY SWEEPING A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE
THE OVERALL BEST CHANCE OF STORMS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND
RIGHT NOW STUCK WITH BLEND WHICH BRINGS CHANCE POPS...HOWEVER IF
MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS INTACT WOULD THINK LIKELY POPS WILL
EVENTUALLY BE INTRODUCED. THIS CHANGE IN PATTERN WILL ALSO BRING
TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

MORNING FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO...GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...AS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR...MORE VALLEY FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT WITH
VISIBILITIES COMING DOWN AT THE TAF SITES. WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR
TREND TO THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WITH THE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...KAS




000
FXUS63 KJKL 041145
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
745 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT HOUR BEFORE
BURNING OFF. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OVER THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER AND
MODEST HUMIDITY LEVELS. THIS HUMIDITY MAY HELP SPARK A FEW WIDELY
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MODELS HAVE BACKED
OFF ON THE THREAT SLIGHTLY. BEST CHANCES MAY BE IN FAR SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY OR IN THE BLUEGRASS REGION...BASED ON THE LATEST HI-RES
MODELS. AS FAR AS SATURDAY GOES...HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE EAST MAY
PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING OVER MUCH
OF EASTERN KENTUCKY IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WOULD STILL
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND VERY HIT OR MISS IN
NATURE. THUS...WILL STICK WITH 20 POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BE STORY TO BEGIN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. THIS IS BRING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH CHANCES OF
AFTERNOON STORMS MAINLY IN THE SE PORTIONS OF THE REGION/NEAR THE
VA/TN BORDER TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND DID BUMP AFTERNOON HIGHS UP A COUPLE OF
DEGREES BASED OF RECENT TRENDS. MODEL WISE FEEL THE GFS SEEMS TO
BE QUITE AGGRESSIVE WITH POPS THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE
PERIOD AND THEREFORE LEANED TOWARD THE OVERALL BLEND.

THE RIDGING DOES LOOK TO BREAKDOWN...AS WESTERN CONUS TROUGH
NEGATIVELY TILTS AND CUTS OFF ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. THIS WILL
LEAD ZONAL FLOW AND EVENTUAL LEAD TO POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHORTWAVE
TROUGHING TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS CHANGE IN UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL AID IN EVENTUALLY SWEEPING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE THE OVERALL BEST
CHANCE OF STORMS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND RIGHT NOW STUCK
WITH BLEND WHICH BRINGS CHANCE POPS...HOWEVER IF MODEL AGREEMENT
REMAINS INTACT WOULD THINK LIKELY POPS WILL EVENTUALLY BE
INTRODUCED. THIS CHANGE IN PATTERN WILL ALSO BRING TEMPS BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

MORNING FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO...GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...AS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR...MORE VALLEY FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT WITH
VISIBILITIES COMING DOWN AT THE TAF SITES. WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR
TREND TO THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WITH THE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...KAS





000
FXUS63 KJKL 041145
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
745 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT HOUR BEFORE
BURNING OFF. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OVER THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER AND
MODEST HUMIDITY LEVELS. THIS HUMIDITY MAY HELP SPARK A FEW WIDELY
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MODELS HAVE BACKED
OFF ON THE THREAT SLIGHTLY. BEST CHANCES MAY BE IN FAR SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY OR IN THE BLUEGRASS REGION...BASED ON THE LATEST HI-RES
MODELS. AS FAR AS SATURDAY GOES...HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE EAST MAY
PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING OVER MUCH
OF EASTERN KENTUCKY IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WOULD STILL
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND VERY HIT OR MISS IN
NATURE. THUS...WILL STICK WITH 20 POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BE STORY TO BEGIN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. THIS IS BRING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH CHANCES OF
AFTERNOON STORMS MAINLY IN THE SE PORTIONS OF THE REGION/NEAR THE
VA/TN BORDER TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND DID BUMP AFTERNOON HIGHS UP A COUPLE OF
DEGREES BASED OF RECENT TRENDS. MODEL WISE FEEL THE GFS SEEMS TO
BE QUITE AGGRESSIVE WITH POPS THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE
PERIOD AND THEREFORE LEANED TOWARD THE OVERALL BLEND.

THE RIDGING DOES LOOK TO BREAKDOWN...AS WESTERN CONUS TROUGH
NEGATIVELY TILTS AND CUTS OFF ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. THIS WILL
LEAD ZONAL FLOW AND EVENTUAL LEAD TO POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHORTWAVE
TROUGHING TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS CHANGE IN UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL AID IN EVENTUALLY SWEEPING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE THE OVERALL BEST
CHANCE OF STORMS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND RIGHT NOW STUCK
WITH BLEND WHICH BRINGS CHANCE POPS...HOWEVER IF MODEL AGREEMENT
REMAINS INTACT WOULD THINK LIKELY POPS WILL EVENTUALLY BE
INTRODUCED. THIS CHANGE IN PATTERN WILL ALSO BRING TEMPS BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

MORNING FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO...GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...AS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR...MORE VALLEY FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT WITH
VISIBILITIES COMING DOWN AT THE TAF SITES. WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR
TREND TO THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WITH THE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...KAS




000
FXUS63 KJKL 041145
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
745 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT HOUR BEFORE
BURNING OFF. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OVER THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER AND
MODEST HUMIDITY LEVELS. THIS HUMIDITY MAY HELP SPARK A FEW WIDELY
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MODELS HAVE BACKED
OFF ON THE THREAT SLIGHTLY. BEST CHANCES MAY BE IN FAR SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY OR IN THE BLUEGRASS REGION...BASED ON THE LATEST HI-RES
MODELS. AS FAR AS SATURDAY GOES...HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE EAST MAY
PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING OVER MUCH
OF EASTERN KENTUCKY IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WOULD STILL
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND VERY HIT OR MISS IN
NATURE. THUS...WILL STICK WITH 20 POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BE STORY TO BEGIN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. THIS IS BRING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH CHANCES OF
AFTERNOON STORMS MAINLY IN THE SE PORTIONS OF THE REGION/NEAR THE
VA/TN BORDER TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND DID BUMP AFTERNOON HIGHS UP A COUPLE OF
DEGREES BASED OF RECENT TRENDS. MODEL WISE FEEL THE GFS SEEMS TO
BE QUITE AGGRESSIVE WITH POPS THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE
PERIOD AND THEREFORE LEANED TOWARD THE OVERALL BLEND.

THE RIDGING DOES LOOK TO BREAKDOWN...AS WESTERN CONUS TROUGH
NEGATIVELY TILTS AND CUTS OFF ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. THIS WILL
LEAD ZONAL FLOW AND EVENTUAL LEAD TO POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHORTWAVE
TROUGHING TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS CHANGE IN UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL AID IN EVENTUALLY SWEEPING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE THE OVERALL BEST
CHANCE OF STORMS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND RIGHT NOW STUCK
WITH BLEND WHICH BRINGS CHANCE POPS...HOWEVER IF MODEL AGREEMENT
REMAINS INTACT WOULD THINK LIKELY POPS WILL EVENTUALLY BE
INTRODUCED. THIS CHANGE IN PATTERN WILL ALSO BRING TEMPS BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

MORNING FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO...GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...AS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR...MORE VALLEY FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT WITH
VISIBILITIES COMING DOWN AT THE TAF SITES. WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR
TREND TO THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WITH THE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...KAS





000
FXUS63 KJKL 041145
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
745 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT HOUR BEFORE
BURNING OFF. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OVER THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER AND
MODEST HUMIDITY LEVELS. THIS HUMIDITY MAY HELP SPARK A FEW WIDELY
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MODELS HAVE BACKED
OFF ON THE THREAT SLIGHTLY. BEST CHANCES MAY BE IN FAR SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY OR IN THE BLUEGRASS REGION...BASED ON THE LATEST HI-RES
MODELS. AS FAR AS SATURDAY GOES...HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE EAST MAY
PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING OVER MUCH
OF EASTERN KENTUCKY IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WOULD STILL
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND VERY HIT OR MISS IN
NATURE. THUS...WILL STICK WITH 20 POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BE STORY TO BEGIN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. THIS IS BRING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH CHANCES OF
AFTERNOON STORMS MAINLY IN THE SE PORTIONS OF THE REGION/NEAR THE
VA/TN BORDER TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND DID BUMP AFTERNOON HIGHS UP A COUPLE OF
DEGREES BASED OF RECENT TRENDS. MODEL WISE FEEL THE GFS SEEMS TO
BE QUITE AGGRESSIVE WITH POPS THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE
PERIOD AND THEREFORE LEANED TOWARD THE OVERALL BLEND.

THE RIDGING DOES LOOK TO BREAKDOWN...AS WESTERN CONUS TROUGH
NEGATIVELY TILTS AND CUTS OFF ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. THIS WILL
LEAD ZONAL FLOW AND EVENTUAL LEAD TO POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHORTWAVE
TROUGHING TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS CHANGE IN UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL AID IN EVENTUALLY SWEEPING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE THE OVERALL BEST
CHANCE OF STORMS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND RIGHT NOW STUCK
WITH BLEND WHICH BRINGS CHANCE POPS...HOWEVER IF MODEL AGREEMENT
REMAINS INTACT WOULD THINK LIKELY POPS WILL EVENTUALLY BE
INTRODUCED. THIS CHANGE IN PATTERN WILL ALSO BRING TEMPS BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

MORNING FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO...GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...AS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR...MORE VALLEY FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT WITH
VISIBILITIES COMING DOWN AT THE TAF SITES. WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR
TREND TO THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WITH THE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...KAS




000
FXUS63 KJKL 040739
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
339 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OVER THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER AND
MODEST HUMIDITY LEVELS. THIS HUMIDITY MAY HELP SPARK A FEW WIDELY
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MODELS HAVE BACKED
OFF ON THE THREAT SLIGHTLY. BEST CHANCES MAY BE IN FAR SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY OR IN THE BLUEGRASS REGION...BASED ON THE LATEST HI-RES
MODELS. AS FAR AS SATURDAY GOES...HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE EAST MAY
PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING OVER MUCH
OF EASTERN KENTUCKY IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WOULD STILL
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND VERY HIT OR MISS IN
NATURE. THUS...WILL STICK WITH 20 POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BE STORY TO BEGIN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. THIS IS BRING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH CHANCES OF
AFTERNOON STORMS MAINLY IN THE SE PORTIONS OF THE REGION/NEAR THE
VA/TN BORDER TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND DID BUMP AFTERNOON HIGHS UP A COUPLE OF
DEGREES BASED OF RECENT TRENDS. MODEL WISE FEEL THE GFS SEEMS TO
BE QUITE AGGRESSIVE WITH POPS THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE
PERIOD AND THEREFORE LEANED TOWARD THE OVERALL BLEND.

THE RIDGING DOES LOOK TO BREAKDOWN...AS WESTERN CONUS TROUGH
NEGATIVELY TILTS AND CUTS OFF ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. THIS WILL
LEAD ZONAL FLOW AND EVENTUAL LEAD TO POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHORTWAVE
TROUGHING TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS CHANGE IN UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL AID IN EVENTUALLY SWEEPING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE THE OVERALL BEST
CHANCE OF STORMS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND RIGHT NOW STUCK
WITH BLEND WHICH BRINGS CHANCE POPS...HOWEVER IF MODEL AGREEMENT
REMAINS INTACT WOULD THINK LIKELY POPS WILL EVENTUALLY BE
INTRODUCED. THIS CHANGE IN PATTERN WILL ALSO BRING TEMPS BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

MUCH LIKE THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...WE WILL HAVE MORE RIVER VALLEY FOG
TO CONTEND WITH TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD AGAIN IMPACT ALL TAF SITES
WITH A SHARP REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES AFTER 09Z. THIS FOG WILL
BURN OFF BY 9 AM IN THE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING. THE
REST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...KAS





000
FXUS63 KJKL 040739
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
339 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OVER THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER AND
MODEST HUMIDITY LEVELS. THIS HUMIDITY MAY HELP SPARK A FEW WIDELY
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MODELS HAVE BACKED
OFF ON THE THREAT SLIGHTLY. BEST CHANCES MAY BE IN FAR SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY OR IN THE BLUEGRASS REGION...BASED ON THE LATEST HI-RES
MODELS. AS FAR AS SATURDAY GOES...HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE EAST MAY
PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING OVER MUCH
OF EASTERN KENTUCKY IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WOULD STILL
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND VERY HIT OR MISS IN
NATURE. THUS...WILL STICK WITH 20 POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BE STORY TO BEGIN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. THIS IS BRING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH CHANCES OF
AFTERNOON STORMS MAINLY IN THE SE PORTIONS OF THE REGION/NEAR THE
VA/TN BORDER TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND DID BUMP AFTERNOON HIGHS UP A COUPLE OF
DEGREES BASED OF RECENT TRENDS. MODEL WISE FEEL THE GFS SEEMS TO
BE QUITE AGGRESSIVE WITH POPS THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE
PERIOD AND THEREFORE LEANED TOWARD THE OVERALL BLEND.

THE RIDGING DOES LOOK TO BREAKDOWN...AS WESTERN CONUS TROUGH
NEGATIVELY TILTS AND CUTS OFF ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. THIS WILL
LEAD ZONAL FLOW AND EVENTUAL LEAD TO POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHORTWAVE
TROUGHING TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS CHANGE IN UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL AID IN EVENTUALLY SWEEPING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE THE OVERALL BEST
CHANCE OF STORMS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND RIGHT NOW STUCK
WITH BLEND WHICH BRINGS CHANCE POPS...HOWEVER IF MODEL AGREEMENT
REMAINS INTACT WOULD THINK LIKELY POPS WILL EVENTUALLY BE
INTRODUCED. THIS CHANGE IN PATTERN WILL ALSO BRING TEMPS BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

MUCH LIKE THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...WE WILL HAVE MORE RIVER VALLEY FOG
TO CONTEND WITH TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD AGAIN IMPACT ALL TAF SITES
WITH A SHARP REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES AFTER 09Z. THIS FOG WILL
BURN OFF BY 9 AM IN THE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING. THE
REST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...KAS




000
FXUS63 KJKL 040658
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
258 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OVER THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER AND
MODEST HUMIDITY LEVELS. THIS HUMIDITY MAY HELP SPARK A FEW WIDELY
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MODELS HAVE BACKED
OFF ON THE THREAT SLIGHTLY. BEST CHANCES MAY BE IN FAR SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY OR IN THE BLUEGRASS REGION...BASED ON THE LATEST HI-RES
MODELS. AS FAR AS SATURDAY GOES...HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE EAST MAY
PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING OVER MUCH
OF EASTERN KENTUCKY IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WOULD STILL
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND VERY HIT OR MISS IN
NATURE. THUS...WILL STICK WITH 20 POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

MUCH LIKE THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...WE WILL HAVE MORE RIVER VALLEY FOG
TO CONTEND WITH TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD AGAIN IMPACT ALL TAF SITES
WITH A SHARP REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES AFTER 09Z. THIS FOG WILL
BURN OFF BY 9 AM IN THE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING. THE
REST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...RAY




000
FXUS63 KJKL 040658
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
258 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OVER THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER AND
MODEST HUMIDITY LEVELS. THIS HUMIDITY MAY HELP SPARK A FEW WIDELY
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MODELS HAVE BACKED
OFF ON THE THREAT SLIGHTLY. BEST CHANCES MAY BE IN FAR SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY OR IN THE BLUEGRASS REGION...BASED ON THE LATEST HI-RES
MODELS. AS FAR AS SATURDAY GOES...HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE EAST MAY
PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING OVER MUCH
OF EASTERN KENTUCKY IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WOULD STILL
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND VERY HIT OR MISS IN
NATURE. THUS...WILL STICK WITH 20 POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

MUCH LIKE THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...WE WILL HAVE MORE RIVER VALLEY FOG
TO CONTEND WITH TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD AGAIN IMPACT ALL TAF SITES
WITH A SHARP REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES AFTER 09Z. THIS FOG WILL
BURN OFF BY 9 AM IN THE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING. THE
REST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...RAY





000
FXUS63 KJKL 040658
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
258 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OVER THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER AND
MODEST HUMIDITY LEVELS. THIS HUMIDITY MAY HELP SPARK A FEW WIDELY
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MODELS HAVE BACKED
OFF ON THE THREAT SLIGHTLY. BEST CHANCES MAY BE IN FAR SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY OR IN THE BLUEGRASS REGION...BASED ON THE LATEST HI-RES
MODELS. AS FAR AS SATURDAY GOES...HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE EAST MAY
PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING OVER MUCH
OF EASTERN KENTUCKY IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WOULD STILL
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND VERY HIT OR MISS IN
NATURE. THUS...WILL STICK WITH 20 POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

MUCH LIKE THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...WE WILL HAVE MORE RIVER VALLEY FOG
TO CONTEND WITH TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD AGAIN IMPACT ALL TAF SITES
WITH A SHARP REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES AFTER 09Z. THIS FOG WILL
BURN OFF BY 9 AM IN THE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING. THE
REST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...RAY





000
FXUS63 KJKL 040658
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
258 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OVER THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER AND
MODEST HUMIDITY LEVELS. THIS HUMIDITY MAY HELP SPARK A FEW WIDELY
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MODELS HAVE BACKED
OFF ON THE THREAT SLIGHTLY. BEST CHANCES MAY BE IN FAR SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY OR IN THE BLUEGRASS REGION...BASED ON THE LATEST HI-RES
MODELS. AS FAR AS SATURDAY GOES...HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE EAST MAY
PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING OVER MUCH
OF EASTERN KENTUCKY IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WOULD STILL
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND VERY HIT OR MISS IN
NATURE. THUS...WILL STICK WITH 20 POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

MUCH LIKE THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...WE WILL HAVE MORE RIVER VALLEY FOG
TO CONTEND WITH TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD AGAIN IMPACT ALL TAF SITES
WITH A SHARP REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES AFTER 09Z. THIS FOG WILL
BURN OFF BY 9 AM IN THE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING. THE
REST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...RAY




000
FXUS63 KJKL 032345
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
745 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DIE OFF EARLY THIS EVENING. FORECAST IS ON
TRACK. ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO BRING THE GRIDS IN
LINE WITH HOURLY TRENDS. NO OTHER CHANGES ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DOMINATING ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM...BESIDES SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO CONTEND
WITH ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE...WHICH WILL AFFECT AREAS
MAINLY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. STILL...GIVEN THE GRADUAL MOISTURE
BUILD UP THROUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXPECT ISOLATED CONVECTION
TO CONTEND WITH DURING MAINLY THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

STRAY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL WIND DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
ANOTHER FOGGY NIGHT LIKELY ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS. LOWS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO A TOUCH WARMER COMPARED TO THIS MORNING...WITH MAINLY
MID 60S...WITH A FEW LOWER 60S OCCURRING IN THE MORE SHELTERED
LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY WILL FEATURE ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH A LITTLE HIGHER HUMIDITY.
HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AT AROUND 90 DEGREES WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION
TO CONTEND WITH ONCE AGAIN. LOWS WILL BE A BIT WARMER STILL FRIDAY
NIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MORE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES COME UP RIGHT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. A
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT AND ACROSS
THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION...AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS FEATURE WILL FLATTEN THE STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS
CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST...EXTENDING
NORTHWARD TO HUDSON BAY. A WEAK AREA OF TROUGHING ALOFT STRETCHING
FROM THE MIDWEST...THROUGH THE COMMONWEALTH AND SOUTHEAST TO THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL LINGER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AS FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...OUR SUMMERTIME WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS
ON AVERAGE. CONSIDERING THE MORE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL INTO THE
80S TO NEAR 90 EACH DAY THROUGH THE START OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
IN GENERAL WENT WITH MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS AND MID 60S FOR MINS
EACH DAY. POPS WILL GENERALLY DEPEND MORE ON SMALL SCALE TYPE
FEATURES AND DIURNAL HEATING VERSUS LARGE SCALE WEATHER SYSTEMS.
CONSEQUENTLY OUR BEST CHANCE AT ANY RAINFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR POSSIBLY SUNDAY. THE MODEL DATA THEN
SUGGESTS A BREAK IN THE PRECIP CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...AS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS RIDGE BUILDS SLIGHTLY
NORTHWESTWARD FOR A TIME. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD THE MODELS
ARE TRYING TO BRING A FAIRLY WELL DEVELOPED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BRING A DECENT RAIN EVENT TO EASTERN KENTUCKY...BUT UPCOMING MODEL
RUNS WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO AGREE ON THIS BEFORE WE CAN SET
ANYTHING IN STONE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DIE OFF WITH SUNSET. MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE WILL BE OVERNIGHT FOG. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD
THROUGH TO ABOUT 06Z. WILL FOLLOW PERSISTENCE IN THAT THE FORECAST
MIRRORS VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS THAT WERE SEEN THIS MORNING AT
OUR TERMINALS...WITH THE MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS LIKELY GOING DOWN
HARD FOR A TIME BETWEEN 08 AND 12Z ONCE AGAIN. FOG WILL BURN OFF
BETWEEN 12 AND 13Z...WITH A REPEAT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION
THREATENING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS WHERE THEY
COULD TEMPORARILY BECOME QUITE GUSTY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN/RAY




000
FXUS63 KJKL 032345
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
745 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DIE OFF EARLY THIS EVENING. FORECAST IS ON
TRACK. ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO BRING THE GRIDS IN
LINE WITH HOURLY TRENDS. NO OTHER CHANGES ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DOMINATING ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM...BESIDES SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO CONTEND
WITH ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE...WHICH WILL AFFECT AREAS
MAINLY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. STILL...GIVEN THE GRADUAL MOISTURE
BUILD UP THROUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXPECT ISOLATED CONVECTION
TO CONTEND WITH DURING MAINLY THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

STRAY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL WIND DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
ANOTHER FOGGY NIGHT LIKELY ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS. LOWS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO A TOUCH WARMER COMPARED TO THIS MORNING...WITH MAINLY
MID 60S...WITH A FEW LOWER 60S OCCURRING IN THE MORE SHELTERED
LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY WILL FEATURE ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH A LITTLE HIGHER HUMIDITY.
HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AT AROUND 90 DEGREES WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION
TO CONTEND WITH ONCE AGAIN. LOWS WILL BE A BIT WARMER STILL FRIDAY
NIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MORE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES COME UP RIGHT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. A
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT AND ACROSS
THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION...AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS FEATURE WILL FLATTEN THE STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS
CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST...EXTENDING
NORTHWARD TO HUDSON BAY. A WEAK AREA OF TROUGHING ALOFT STRETCHING
FROM THE MIDWEST...THROUGH THE COMMONWEALTH AND SOUTHEAST TO THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL LINGER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AS FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...OUR SUMMERTIME WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS
ON AVERAGE. CONSIDERING THE MORE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL INTO THE
80S TO NEAR 90 EACH DAY THROUGH THE START OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
IN GENERAL WENT WITH MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS AND MID 60S FOR MINS
EACH DAY. POPS WILL GENERALLY DEPEND MORE ON SMALL SCALE TYPE
FEATURES AND DIURNAL HEATING VERSUS LARGE SCALE WEATHER SYSTEMS.
CONSEQUENTLY OUR BEST CHANCE AT ANY RAINFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR POSSIBLY SUNDAY. THE MODEL DATA THEN
SUGGESTS A BREAK IN THE PRECIP CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...AS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS RIDGE BUILDS SLIGHTLY
NORTHWESTWARD FOR A TIME. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD THE MODELS
ARE TRYING TO BRING A FAIRLY WELL DEVELOPED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BRING A DECENT RAIN EVENT TO EASTERN KENTUCKY...BUT UPCOMING MODEL
RUNS WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO AGREE ON THIS BEFORE WE CAN SET
ANYTHING IN STONE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DIE OFF WITH SUNSET. MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE WILL BE OVERNIGHT FOG. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD
THROUGH TO ABOUT 06Z. WILL FOLLOW PERSISTENCE IN THAT THE FORECAST
MIRRORS VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS THAT WERE SEEN THIS MORNING AT
OUR TERMINALS...WITH THE MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS LIKELY GOING DOWN
HARD FOR A TIME BETWEEN 08 AND 12Z ONCE AGAIN. FOG WILL BURN OFF
BETWEEN 12 AND 13Z...WITH A REPEAT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION
THREATENING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS WHERE THEY
COULD TEMPORARILY BECOME QUITE GUSTY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN/RAY





000
FXUS63 KJKL 032345
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
745 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DIE OFF EARLY THIS EVENING. FORECAST IS ON
TRACK. ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO BRING THE GRIDS IN
LINE WITH HOURLY TRENDS. NO OTHER CHANGES ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DOMINATING ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM...BESIDES SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO CONTEND
WITH ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE...WHICH WILL AFFECT AREAS
MAINLY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. STILL...GIVEN THE GRADUAL MOISTURE
BUILD UP THROUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXPECT ISOLATED CONVECTION
TO CONTEND WITH DURING MAINLY THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

STRAY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL WIND DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
ANOTHER FOGGY NIGHT LIKELY ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS. LOWS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO A TOUCH WARMER COMPARED TO THIS MORNING...WITH MAINLY
MID 60S...WITH A FEW LOWER 60S OCCURRING IN THE MORE SHELTERED
LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY WILL FEATURE ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH A LITTLE HIGHER HUMIDITY.
HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AT AROUND 90 DEGREES WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION
TO CONTEND WITH ONCE AGAIN. LOWS WILL BE A BIT WARMER STILL FRIDAY
NIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MORE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES COME UP RIGHT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. A
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT AND ACROSS
THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION...AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS FEATURE WILL FLATTEN THE STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS
CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST...EXTENDING
NORTHWARD TO HUDSON BAY. A WEAK AREA OF TROUGHING ALOFT STRETCHING
FROM THE MIDWEST...THROUGH THE COMMONWEALTH AND SOUTHEAST TO THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL LINGER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AS FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...OUR SUMMERTIME WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS
ON AVERAGE. CONSIDERING THE MORE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL INTO THE
80S TO NEAR 90 EACH DAY THROUGH THE START OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
IN GENERAL WENT WITH MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS AND MID 60S FOR MINS
EACH DAY. POPS WILL GENERALLY DEPEND MORE ON SMALL SCALE TYPE
FEATURES AND DIURNAL HEATING VERSUS LARGE SCALE WEATHER SYSTEMS.
CONSEQUENTLY OUR BEST CHANCE AT ANY RAINFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR POSSIBLY SUNDAY. THE MODEL DATA THEN
SUGGESTS A BREAK IN THE PRECIP CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...AS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS RIDGE BUILDS SLIGHTLY
NORTHWESTWARD FOR A TIME. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD THE MODELS
ARE TRYING TO BRING A FAIRLY WELL DEVELOPED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BRING A DECENT RAIN EVENT TO EASTERN KENTUCKY...BUT UPCOMING MODEL
RUNS WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO AGREE ON THIS BEFORE WE CAN SET
ANYTHING IN STONE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DIE OFF WITH SUNSET. MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE WILL BE OVERNIGHT FOG. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD
THROUGH TO ABOUT 06Z. WILL FOLLOW PERSISTENCE IN THAT THE FORECAST
MIRRORS VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS THAT WERE SEEN THIS MORNING AT
OUR TERMINALS...WITH THE MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS LIKELY GOING DOWN
HARD FOR A TIME BETWEEN 08 AND 12Z ONCE AGAIN. FOG WILL BURN OFF
BETWEEN 12 AND 13Z...WITH A REPEAT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION
THREATENING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS WHERE THEY
COULD TEMPORARILY BECOME QUITE GUSTY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN/RAY





000
FXUS63 KJKL 032345
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
745 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DIE OFF EARLY THIS EVENING. FORECAST IS ON
TRACK. ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO BRING THE GRIDS IN
LINE WITH HOURLY TRENDS. NO OTHER CHANGES ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DOMINATING ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM...BESIDES SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO CONTEND
WITH ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE...WHICH WILL AFFECT AREAS
MAINLY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. STILL...GIVEN THE GRADUAL MOISTURE
BUILD UP THROUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXPECT ISOLATED CONVECTION
TO CONTEND WITH DURING MAINLY THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

STRAY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL WIND DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
ANOTHER FOGGY NIGHT LIKELY ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS. LOWS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO A TOUCH WARMER COMPARED TO THIS MORNING...WITH MAINLY
MID 60S...WITH A FEW LOWER 60S OCCURRING IN THE MORE SHELTERED
LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY WILL FEATURE ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH A LITTLE HIGHER HUMIDITY.
HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AT AROUND 90 DEGREES WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION
TO CONTEND WITH ONCE AGAIN. LOWS WILL BE A BIT WARMER STILL FRIDAY
NIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MORE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES COME UP RIGHT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. A
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT AND ACROSS
THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION...AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS FEATURE WILL FLATTEN THE STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS
CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST...EXTENDING
NORTHWARD TO HUDSON BAY. A WEAK AREA OF TROUGHING ALOFT STRETCHING
FROM THE MIDWEST...THROUGH THE COMMONWEALTH AND SOUTHEAST TO THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL LINGER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AS FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...OUR SUMMERTIME WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS
ON AVERAGE. CONSIDERING THE MORE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL INTO THE
80S TO NEAR 90 EACH DAY THROUGH THE START OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
IN GENERAL WENT WITH MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS AND MID 60S FOR MINS
EACH DAY. POPS WILL GENERALLY DEPEND MORE ON SMALL SCALE TYPE
FEATURES AND DIURNAL HEATING VERSUS LARGE SCALE WEATHER SYSTEMS.
CONSEQUENTLY OUR BEST CHANCE AT ANY RAINFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR POSSIBLY SUNDAY. THE MODEL DATA THEN
SUGGESTS A BREAK IN THE PRECIP CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...AS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS RIDGE BUILDS SLIGHTLY
NORTHWESTWARD FOR A TIME. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD THE MODELS
ARE TRYING TO BRING A FAIRLY WELL DEVELOPED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BRING A DECENT RAIN EVENT TO EASTERN KENTUCKY...BUT UPCOMING MODEL
RUNS WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO AGREE ON THIS BEFORE WE CAN SET
ANYTHING IN STONE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DIE OFF WITH SUNSET. MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE WILL BE OVERNIGHT FOG. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD
THROUGH TO ABOUT 06Z. WILL FOLLOW PERSISTENCE IN THAT THE FORECAST
MIRRORS VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS THAT WERE SEEN THIS MORNING AT
OUR TERMINALS...WITH THE MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS LIKELY GOING DOWN
HARD FOR A TIME BETWEEN 08 AND 12Z ONCE AGAIN. FOG WILL BURN OFF
BETWEEN 12 AND 13Z...WITH A REPEAT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION
THREATENING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS WHERE THEY
COULD TEMPORARILY BECOME QUITE GUSTY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN/RAY




000
FXUS63 KJKL 031957
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
357 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DOMINATING ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM...BESIDES SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO CONTEND
WITH ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE...WHICH WILL AFFECT AREAS
MAINLY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. STILL...GIVEN THE GRADUAL MOISTURE
BUILD UP THROUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXPECT ISOLATED CONVECTION
TO CONTEND WITH DURING MAINLY THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

STRAY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL WIND DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
ANOTHER FOGGY NIGHT LIKELY ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS. LOWS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO A TOUCH WARMER COMPARED TO THIS MORNING...WITH MAINLY
MID 60S...WITH A FEW LOWER 60S OCCURRING IN THE MORE SHELTERED
LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY WILL FEATURE ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH A LITTLE HIGHER HUMIDITY.
HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AT AROUND 90 DEGREES WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION
TO CONTEND WITH ONCE AGAIN. LOWS WILL BE A BIT WARMER STILL FRIDAY
NIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MORE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES COME UP RIGHT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. A
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT AND ACROSS
THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION...AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS FEATURE WILL FLATTEN THE STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS
CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST...EXTENDING
NORTHWARD TO HUDSON BAY. A WEAK AREA OF TROUGHING ALOFT STRETCHING
FROM THE MIDWEST...THROUGH THE COMMONWEALTH AND SOUTHEAST TO THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL LINGER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AS FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...OUR SUMMERTIME WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS
ON AVERAGE. CONSIDERING THE MORE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL INTO THE
80S TO NEAR 90 EACH DAY THROUGH THE START OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
IN GENERAL WENT WITH MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS AND MID 60S FOR MINS
EACH DAY. POPS WILL GENERALLY DEPEND MORE ON SMALL SCALE TYPE
FEATURES AND DIURNAL HEATING VERSUS LARGE SCALE WEATHER SYSTEMS.
CONSEQUENTLY OUR BEST CHANCE AT ANY RAINFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR POSSIBLY SUNDAY. THE MODEL DATA THEN
SUGGESTS A BREAK IN THE PRECIP CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...AS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS RIDGE BUILDS SLIGHTLY
NORTHWESTWARD FOR A TIME. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD THE MODELS
ARE TRYING TO BRING A FAIRLY WELL DEVELOPED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BRING A DECENT RAIN EVENT TO EASTERN KENTUCKY...BUT UPCOMING MODEL
RUNS WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO AGREE ON THIS BEFORE WE CAN SET
ANYTHING IN STONE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 214 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH 06Z...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF WHERE ISOLATED CONVECTION CAN TRACK...WHICH WOULD LIKELY YIELD
SOME TEMPORARY MVFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS. GIVEN THE LIMITED AREAL
COVERAGE...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VCSH OR VCTS EAST OF I-75.
CONVECTION WILL DIE OFF TOWARDS THIS EVENING...WITH FOG BECOMING
THE MAIN CONCERN ONCE AGAIN. HAVE MIRRORED VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS THAT WERE SEEN THIS MORNING AT THE TAF SITES...WITH THE
MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS LIKELY GOING DOWN HARD FOR A TIME BETWEEN 08
AND 12Z ONCE AGAIN. FOG WILL BURN OFF BETWEEN 12 AND 13Z...WITH A
REPEAT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION THREATENING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN




000
FXUS63 KJKL 031957
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
357 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DOMINATING ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM...BESIDES SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO CONTEND
WITH ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE...WHICH WILL AFFECT AREAS
MAINLY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. STILL...GIVEN THE GRADUAL MOISTURE
BUILD UP THROUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXPECT ISOLATED CONVECTION
TO CONTEND WITH DURING MAINLY THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

STRAY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL WIND DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
ANOTHER FOGGY NIGHT LIKELY ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS. LOWS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO A TOUCH WARMER COMPARED TO THIS MORNING...WITH MAINLY
MID 60S...WITH A FEW LOWER 60S OCCURRING IN THE MORE SHELTERED
LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY WILL FEATURE ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH A LITTLE HIGHER HUMIDITY.
HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AT AROUND 90 DEGREES WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION
TO CONTEND WITH ONCE AGAIN. LOWS WILL BE A BIT WARMER STILL FRIDAY
NIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MORE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES COME UP RIGHT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. A
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT AND ACROSS
THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION...AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS FEATURE WILL FLATTEN THE STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS
CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST...EXTENDING
NORTHWARD TO HUDSON BAY. A WEAK AREA OF TROUGHING ALOFT STRETCHING
FROM THE MIDWEST...THROUGH THE COMMONWEALTH AND SOUTHEAST TO THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL LINGER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AS FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...OUR SUMMERTIME WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS
ON AVERAGE. CONSIDERING THE MORE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL INTO THE
80S TO NEAR 90 EACH DAY THROUGH THE START OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
IN GENERAL WENT WITH MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS AND MID 60S FOR MINS
EACH DAY. POPS WILL GENERALLY DEPEND MORE ON SMALL SCALE TYPE
FEATURES AND DIURNAL HEATING VERSUS LARGE SCALE WEATHER SYSTEMS.
CONSEQUENTLY OUR BEST CHANCE AT ANY RAINFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR POSSIBLY SUNDAY. THE MODEL DATA THEN
SUGGESTS A BREAK IN THE PRECIP CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...AS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS RIDGE BUILDS SLIGHTLY
NORTHWESTWARD FOR A TIME. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD THE MODELS
ARE TRYING TO BRING A FAIRLY WELL DEVELOPED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BRING A DECENT RAIN EVENT TO EASTERN KENTUCKY...BUT UPCOMING MODEL
RUNS WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO AGREE ON THIS BEFORE WE CAN SET
ANYTHING IN STONE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 214 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH 06Z...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF WHERE ISOLATED CONVECTION CAN TRACK...WHICH WOULD LIKELY YIELD
SOME TEMPORARY MVFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS. GIVEN THE LIMITED AREAL
COVERAGE...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VCSH OR VCTS EAST OF I-75.
CONVECTION WILL DIE OFF TOWARDS THIS EVENING...WITH FOG BECOMING
THE MAIN CONCERN ONCE AGAIN. HAVE MIRRORED VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS THAT WERE SEEN THIS MORNING AT THE TAF SITES...WITH THE
MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS LIKELY GOING DOWN HARD FOR A TIME BETWEEN 08
AND 12Z ONCE AGAIN. FOG WILL BURN OFF BETWEEN 12 AND 13Z...WITH A
REPEAT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION THREATENING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN




000
FXUS63 KJKL 031957
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
357 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DOMINATING ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM...BESIDES SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO CONTEND
WITH ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE...WHICH WILL AFFECT AREAS
MAINLY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. STILL...GIVEN THE GRADUAL MOISTURE
BUILD UP THROUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXPECT ISOLATED CONVECTION
TO CONTEND WITH DURING MAINLY THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

STRAY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL WIND DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
ANOTHER FOGGY NIGHT LIKELY ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS. LOWS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO A TOUCH WARMER COMPARED TO THIS MORNING...WITH MAINLY
MID 60S...WITH A FEW LOWER 60S OCCURRING IN THE MORE SHELTERED
LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY WILL FEATURE ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH A LITTLE HIGHER HUMIDITY.
HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AT AROUND 90 DEGREES WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION
TO CONTEND WITH ONCE AGAIN. LOWS WILL BE A BIT WARMER STILL FRIDAY
NIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MORE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES COME UP RIGHT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. A
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT AND ACROSS
THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION...AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS FEATURE WILL FLATTEN THE STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS
CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST...EXTENDING
NORTHWARD TO HUDSON BAY. A WEAK AREA OF TROUGHING ALOFT STRETCHING
FROM THE MIDWEST...THROUGH THE COMMONWEALTH AND SOUTHEAST TO THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL LINGER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AS FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...OUR SUMMERTIME WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS
ON AVERAGE. CONSIDERING THE MORE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL INTO THE
80S TO NEAR 90 EACH DAY THROUGH THE START OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
IN GENERAL WENT WITH MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS AND MID 60S FOR MINS
EACH DAY. POPS WILL GENERALLY DEPEND MORE ON SMALL SCALE TYPE
FEATURES AND DIURNAL HEATING VERSUS LARGE SCALE WEATHER SYSTEMS.
CONSEQUENTLY OUR BEST CHANCE AT ANY RAINFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR POSSIBLY SUNDAY. THE MODEL DATA THEN
SUGGESTS A BREAK IN THE PRECIP CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...AS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS RIDGE BUILDS SLIGHTLY
NORTHWESTWARD FOR A TIME. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD THE MODELS
ARE TRYING TO BRING A FAIRLY WELL DEVELOPED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BRING A DECENT RAIN EVENT TO EASTERN KENTUCKY...BUT UPCOMING MODEL
RUNS WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO AGREE ON THIS BEFORE WE CAN SET
ANYTHING IN STONE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 214 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH 06Z...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF WHERE ISOLATED CONVECTION CAN TRACK...WHICH WOULD LIKELY YIELD
SOME TEMPORARY MVFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS. GIVEN THE LIMITED AREAL
COVERAGE...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VCSH OR VCTS EAST OF I-75.
CONVECTION WILL DIE OFF TOWARDS THIS EVENING...WITH FOG BECOMING
THE MAIN CONCERN ONCE AGAIN. HAVE MIRRORED VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS THAT WERE SEEN THIS MORNING AT THE TAF SITES...WITH THE
MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS LIKELY GOING DOWN HARD FOR A TIME BETWEEN 08
AND 12Z ONCE AGAIN. FOG WILL BURN OFF BETWEEN 12 AND 13Z...WITH A
REPEAT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION THREATENING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN





000
FXUS63 KJKL 031957
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
357 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DOMINATING ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM...BESIDES SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO CONTEND
WITH ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE...WHICH WILL AFFECT AREAS
MAINLY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. STILL...GIVEN THE GRADUAL MOISTURE
BUILD UP THROUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXPECT ISOLATED CONVECTION
TO CONTEND WITH DURING MAINLY THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

STRAY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL WIND DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
ANOTHER FOGGY NIGHT LIKELY ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS. LOWS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO A TOUCH WARMER COMPARED TO THIS MORNING...WITH MAINLY
MID 60S...WITH A FEW LOWER 60S OCCURRING IN THE MORE SHELTERED
LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY WILL FEATURE ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH A LITTLE HIGHER HUMIDITY.
HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AT AROUND 90 DEGREES WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION
TO CONTEND WITH ONCE AGAIN. LOWS WILL BE A BIT WARMER STILL FRIDAY
NIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MORE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES COME UP RIGHT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. A
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT AND ACROSS
THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION...AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS FEATURE WILL FLATTEN THE STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS
CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST...EXTENDING
NORTHWARD TO HUDSON BAY. A WEAK AREA OF TROUGHING ALOFT STRETCHING
FROM THE MIDWEST...THROUGH THE COMMONWEALTH AND SOUTHEAST TO THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL LINGER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AS FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...OUR SUMMERTIME WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS
ON AVERAGE. CONSIDERING THE MORE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL INTO THE
80S TO NEAR 90 EACH DAY THROUGH THE START OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
IN GENERAL WENT WITH MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS AND MID 60S FOR MINS
EACH DAY. POPS WILL GENERALLY DEPEND MORE ON SMALL SCALE TYPE
FEATURES AND DIURNAL HEATING VERSUS LARGE SCALE WEATHER SYSTEMS.
CONSEQUENTLY OUR BEST CHANCE AT ANY RAINFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR POSSIBLY SUNDAY. THE MODEL DATA THEN
SUGGESTS A BREAK IN THE PRECIP CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...AS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS RIDGE BUILDS SLIGHTLY
NORTHWESTWARD FOR A TIME. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD THE MODELS
ARE TRYING TO BRING A FAIRLY WELL DEVELOPED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BRING A DECENT RAIN EVENT TO EASTERN KENTUCKY...BUT UPCOMING MODEL
RUNS WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO AGREE ON THIS BEFORE WE CAN SET
ANYTHING IN STONE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 214 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH 06Z...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF WHERE ISOLATED CONVECTION CAN TRACK...WHICH WOULD LIKELY YIELD
SOME TEMPORARY MVFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS. GIVEN THE LIMITED AREAL
COVERAGE...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VCSH OR VCTS EAST OF I-75.
CONVECTION WILL DIE OFF TOWARDS THIS EVENING...WITH FOG BECOMING
THE MAIN CONCERN ONCE AGAIN. HAVE MIRRORED VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS THAT WERE SEEN THIS MORNING AT THE TAF SITES...WITH THE
MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS LIKELY GOING DOWN HARD FOR A TIME BETWEEN 08
AND 12Z ONCE AGAIN. FOG WILL BURN OFF BETWEEN 12 AND 13Z...WITH A
REPEAT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION THREATENING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN





000
FXUS63 KJKL 031814 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
214 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 214 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MANAGED TO DOT THE AREA
EVEN FURTHER SOUTHWEST. HAVE INCLUDED MOST OF THE AREA WITH AT
LEAST ISOLATED POPS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON BASED ON THE
RADAR TRENDS. FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS
AS WELL TO JIVE BETTER WITH THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1214 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

A FEW SHORT-LIVED SHOWERS MANAGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN PIKE COUNTY EARLIER...HOWEVER THESE HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED.
THE CU FIELD HAS BEEN MORE PREVALENT IN THE EAST SO FAR AND THE
LATEST HRRR MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE BETTER POTENTIAL
FOR ANY ISOLATED ACTIVITY FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. DID GO AHEAD AND
ADD THUNDER FOR TODAY GIVEN THE MODERATELY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES TO DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING. HIGHS TODAY LOOK ON
TARGET...WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING AROUND THE 90 DEGREE MARK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

NO UPDATE THIS MORNING AS FORECAST IS ON TRACK. LOTS OF VALLEY FOG
OUT THERE SHOULD AND IT SHOULD BE BURNING OFF OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

NO PATTERN CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE A MEAGER CHANCE OF A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS TODAY
AND AGAIN FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AS FAR AS TODAY GOES...HI RES MODELS
ARE INDICATING THAT WE MAY BE IN A HOLE WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTION
TODAY...KEEPING EVERYTHING FARTHER EAST. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A
WAVE IN THE FLOW TO OUR NORTHEAST...BUT REALLY SHOULD CLIP OUR
AREA. THUS...WILL DOWNPLAY PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY...JUST
GOING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST.
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME IN ON FRIDAY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...BUT CHANCES WILL PROBABLY BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON LOCAL BOUNDARIES AND PREVIOUS CONVECTION. THUS...WILL
GO WITH A GENERAL SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP HIGHS FAIRLY
CLOSE TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN LATELY IN THE UPPER 80S TODAY AND
FRIDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL CONTINUE TO
FEATURE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. BY MONDAY
THOUGH...THE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND
A STRONG TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A
SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE PATTERN. MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT THIS
CHANGE FOR THE PAST FEW RUNS.

CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE...THE AREA HAS BEEN
UNDER WARM AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS EACH AFTERNOON WITH WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT CAUSING SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION EACH DAY. WARM AND
MOIST MAINLY WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY WITH
MORNING FOG GIVING WAY TO SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS EACH
AFTERNOON. THIS DIURNAL TREND CONTINUES TILL MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WHEN THE MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED SURFACE GRADIENT AND FORCING FOR
CONVECTION AND A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP NOT SEEN IN DAYS. AT
THIS TIME...MODELS ARE SLOWLY TRENDING WEAKER WITH THIS FRONT SO
HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY UNDER THE ALL MODEL BLEND SOLUTION BUT THIS
FEATURE STILL IS THE LARGEST CHANGE IN THE PATTERN YET. WENT WITH
LOW CHANCE POPS INTO WEDNESDAY AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 214 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH 06Z...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF WHERE ISOLATED CONVECTION CAN TRACK...WHICH WOULD LIKELY YIELD
SOME TEMPORARY MVFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS. GIVEN THE LIMITED AREAL
COVERAGE...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VCSH OR VCTS EAST OF I-75.
CONVECTION WILL DIE OFF TOWARDS THIS EVENING...WITH FOG BECOMING
THE MAIN CONCERN ONCE AGAIN. HAVE MIRRORED VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS THAT WERE SEEN THIS MORNING AT THE TAF SITES...WITH THE
MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS LIKELY GOING DOWN HARD FOR A TIME BETWEEN 08
AND 12Z ONCE AGAIN. FOG WILL BURN OFF BETWEEN 12 AND 13Z...WITH A
REPEAT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION THREATENING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN





000
FXUS63 KJKL 031814 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
214 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 214 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MANAGED TO DOT THE AREA
EVEN FURTHER SOUTHWEST. HAVE INCLUDED MOST OF THE AREA WITH AT
LEAST ISOLATED POPS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON BASED ON THE
RADAR TRENDS. FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS
AS WELL TO JIVE BETTER WITH THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1214 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

A FEW SHORT-LIVED SHOWERS MANAGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN PIKE COUNTY EARLIER...HOWEVER THESE HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED.
THE CU FIELD HAS BEEN MORE PREVALENT IN THE EAST SO FAR AND THE
LATEST HRRR MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE BETTER POTENTIAL
FOR ANY ISOLATED ACTIVITY FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. DID GO AHEAD AND
ADD THUNDER FOR TODAY GIVEN THE MODERATELY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES TO DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING. HIGHS TODAY LOOK ON
TARGET...WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING AROUND THE 90 DEGREE MARK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

NO UPDATE THIS MORNING AS FORECAST IS ON TRACK. LOTS OF VALLEY FOG
OUT THERE SHOULD AND IT SHOULD BE BURNING OFF OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

NO PATTERN CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE A MEAGER CHANCE OF A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS TODAY
AND AGAIN FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AS FAR AS TODAY GOES...HI RES MODELS
ARE INDICATING THAT WE MAY BE IN A HOLE WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTION
TODAY...KEEPING EVERYTHING FARTHER EAST. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A
WAVE IN THE FLOW TO OUR NORTHEAST...BUT REALLY SHOULD CLIP OUR
AREA. THUS...WILL DOWNPLAY PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY...JUST
GOING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST.
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME IN ON FRIDAY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...BUT CHANCES WILL PROBABLY BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON LOCAL BOUNDARIES AND PREVIOUS CONVECTION. THUS...WILL
GO WITH A GENERAL SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP HIGHS FAIRLY
CLOSE TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN LATELY IN THE UPPER 80S TODAY AND
FRIDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL CONTINUE TO
FEATURE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. BY MONDAY
THOUGH...THE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND
A STRONG TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A
SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE PATTERN. MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT THIS
CHANGE FOR THE PAST FEW RUNS.

CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE...THE AREA HAS BEEN
UNDER WARM AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS EACH AFTERNOON WITH WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT CAUSING SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION EACH DAY. WARM AND
MOIST MAINLY WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY WITH
MORNING FOG GIVING WAY TO SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS EACH
AFTERNOON. THIS DIURNAL TREND CONTINUES TILL MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WHEN THE MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED SURFACE GRADIENT AND FORCING FOR
CONVECTION AND A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP NOT SEEN IN DAYS. AT
THIS TIME...MODELS ARE SLOWLY TRENDING WEAKER WITH THIS FRONT SO
HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY UNDER THE ALL MODEL BLEND SOLUTION BUT THIS
FEATURE STILL IS THE LARGEST CHANGE IN THE PATTERN YET. WENT WITH
LOW CHANCE POPS INTO WEDNESDAY AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 214 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH 06Z...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF WHERE ISOLATED CONVECTION CAN TRACK...WHICH WOULD LIKELY YIELD
SOME TEMPORARY MVFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS. GIVEN THE LIMITED AREAL
COVERAGE...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VCSH OR VCTS EAST OF I-75.
CONVECTION WILL DIE OFF TOWARDS THIS EVENING...WITH FOG BECOMING
THE MAIN CONCERN ONCE AGAIN. HAVE MIRRORED VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS THAT WERE SEEN THIS MORNING AT THE TAF SITES...WITH THE
MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS LIKELY GOING DOWN HARD FOR A TIME BETWEEN 08
AND 12Z ONCE AGAIN. FOG WILL BURN OFF BETWEEN 12 AND 13Z...WITH A
REPEAT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION THREATENING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN





000
FXUS63 KJKL 031814 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
214 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 214 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MANAGED TO DOT THE AREA
EVEN FURTHER SOUTHWEST. HAVE INCLUDED MOST OF THE AREA WITH AT
LEAST ISOLATED POPS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON BASED ON THE
RADAR TRENDS. FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS
AS WELL TO JIVE BETTER WITH THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1214 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

A FEW SHORT-LIVED SHOWERS MANAGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN PIKE COUNTY EARLIER...HOWEVER THESE HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED.
THE CU FIELD HAS BEEN MORE PREVALENT IN THE EAST SO FAR AND THE
LATEST HRRR MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE BETTER POTENTIAL
FOR ANY ISOLATED ACTIVITY FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. DID GO AHEAD AND
ADD THUNDER FOR TODAY GIVEN THE MODERATELY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES TO DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING. HIGHS TODAY LOOK ON
TARGET...WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING AROUND THE 90 DEGREE MARK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

NO UPDATE THIS MORNING AS FORECAST IS ON TRACK. LOTS OF VALLEY FOG
OUT THERE SHOULD AND IT SHOULD BE BURNING OFF OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

NO PATTERN CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE A MEAGER CHANCE OF A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS TODAY
AND AGAIN FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AS FAR AS TODAY GOES...HI RES MODELS
ARE INDICATING THAT WE MAY BE IN A HOLE WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTION
TODAY...KEEPING EVERYTHING FARTHER EAST. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A
WAVE IN THE FLOW TO OUR NORTHEAST...BUT REALLY SHOULD CLIP OUR
AREA. THUS...WILL DOWNPLAY PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY...JUST
GOING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST.
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME IN ON FRIDAY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...BUT CHANCES WILL PROBABLY BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON LOCAL BOUNDARIES AND PREVIOUS CONVECTION. THUS...WILL
GO WITH A GENERAL SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP HIGHS FAIRLY
CLOSE TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN LATELY IN THE UPPER 80S TODAY AND
FRIDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL CONTINUE TO
FEATURE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. BY MONDAY
THOUGH...THE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND
A STRONG TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A
SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE PATTERN. MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT THIS
CHANGE FOR THE PAST FEW RUNS.

CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE...THE AREA HAS BEEN
UNDER WARM AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS EACH AFTERNOON WITH WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT CAUSING SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION EACH DAY. WARM AND
MOIST MAINLY WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY WITH
MORNING FOG GIVING WAY TO SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS EACH
AFTERNOON. THIS DIURNAL TREND CONTINUES TILL MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WHEN THE MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED SURFACE GRADIENT AND FORCING FOR
CONVECTION AND A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP NOT SEEN IN DAYS. AT
THIS TIME...MODELS ARE SLOWLY TRENDING WEAKER WITH THIS FRONT SO
HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY UNDER THE ALL MODEL BLEND SOLUTION BUT THIS
FEATURE STILL IS THE LARGEST CHANGE IN THE PATTERN YET. WENT WITH
LOW CHANCE POPS INTO WEDNESDAY AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 214 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH 06Z...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF WHERE ISOLATED CONVECTION CAN TRACK...WHICH WOULD LIKELY YIELD
SOME TEMPORARY MVFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS. GIVEN THE LIMITED AREAL
COVERAGE...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VCSH OR VCTS EAST OF I-75.
CONVECTION WILL DIE OFF TOWARDS THIS EVENING...WITH FOG BECOMING
THE MAIN CONCERN ONCE AGAIN. HAVE MIRRORED VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS THAT WERE SEEN THIS MORNING AT THE TAF SITES...WITH THE
MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS LIKELY GOING DOWN HARD FOR A TIME BETWEEN 08
AND 12Z ONCE AGAIN. FOG WILL BURN OFF BETWEEN 12 AND 13Z...WITH A
REPEAT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION THREATENING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN




000
FXUS63 KJKL 031614
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1214 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1214 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

A FEW SHORT-LIVED SHOWERS MANAGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN PIKE COUNTY EARLIER...HOWEVER THESE HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED.
THE CU FIELD HAS BEEN MORE PREVALENT IN THE EAST SO FAR AND THE
LATEST HRRR MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE BETTER POTENTIAL
FOR ANY ISOLATED ACTIVITY FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. DID GO AHEAD AND
ADD THUNDER FOR TODAY GIVEN THE MODERATELY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES TO DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING. HIGHS TODAY LOOK ON
TARGET...WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING AROUND THE 90 DEGREE MARK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

NO UPDATE THIS MORNING AS FORECAST IS ON TRACK. LOTS OF VALLEY FOG
OUT THERE SHOULD AND IT SHOULD BE BURNING OFF OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

NO PATTERN CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE A MEAGER CHANCE OF A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS TODAY
AND AGAIN FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AS FAR AS TODAY GOES...HI RES MODELS
ARE INDICATING THAT WE MAY BE IN A HOLE WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTION
TODAY...KEEPING EVERYTHING FARTHER EAST. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A
WAVE IN THE FLOW TO OUR NORTHEAST...BUT REALLY SHOULD CLIP OUR
AREA. THUS...WILL DOWNPLAY PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY...JUST
GOING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST.
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME IN ON FRIDAY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...BUT CHANCES WILL PROBABLY BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON LOCAL BOUNDARIES AND PREVIOUS CONVECTION. THUS...WILL
GO WITH A GENERAL SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP HIGHS FAIRLY
CLOSE TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN LATELY IN THE UPPER 80S TODAY AND
FRIDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL CONTINUE TO
FEATURE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. BY MONDAY
THOUGH...THE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND
A STRONG TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A
SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE PATTERN. MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT THIS
CHANGE FOR THE PAST FEW RUNS.

CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE...THE AREA HAS BEEN
UNDER WARM AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS EACH AFTERNOON WITH WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT CAUSING SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION EACH DAY. WARM AND
MOIST MAINLY WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY WITH
MORNING FOG GIVING WAY TO SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS EACH
AFTERNOON. THIS DIURNAL TREND CONTINUES TILL MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WHEN THE MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED SURFACE GRADIENT AND FORCING FOR
CONVECTION AND A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP NOT SEEN IN DAYS. AT
THIS TIME...MODELS ARE SLOWLY TRENDING WEAKER WITH THIS FRONT SO
HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY UNDER THE ALL MODEL BLEND SOLUTION BUT THIS
FEATURE STILL IS THE LARGEST CHANGE IN THE PATTERN YET. WENT WITH
LOW CHANCE POPS INTO WEDNESDAY AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

ANOTHER TYPICAL EASTERN KENTUCKY MORNING WITH MORE VALLEY FOG.
THIS FOG WILL BURN OFF OVER THE NEXT HOUR TO TWO HOURS. THIS WILL
BRING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY MID MORNING. SOME SCATTERED
CU WILL DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY
VFR THROUGH THE EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT AND WILL BRING VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS DOWN AT THE
TAF SITES ONCE MORE.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...KAS





000
FXUS63 KJKL 031614
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1214 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1214 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

A FEW SHORT-LIVED SHOWERS MANAGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN PIKE COUNTY EARLIER...HOWEVER THESE HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED.
THE CU FIELD HAS BEEN MORE PREVALENT IN THE EAST SO FAR AND THE
LATEST HRRR MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE BETTER POTENTIAL
FOR ANY ISOLATED ACTIVITY FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. DID GO AHEAD AND
ADD THUNDER FOR TODAY GIVEN THE MODERATELY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES TO DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING. HIGHS TODAY LOOK ON
TARGET...WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING AROUND THE 90 DEGREE MARK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

NO UPDATE THIS MORNING AS FORECAST IS ON TRACK. LOTS OF VALLEY FOG
OUT THERE SHOULD AND IT SHOULD BE BURNING OFF OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

NO PATTERN CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE A MEAGER CHANCE OF A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS TODAY
AND AGAIN FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AS FAR AS TODAY GOES...HI RES MODELS
ARE INDICATING THAT WE MAY BE IN A HOLE WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTION
TODAY...KEEPING EVERYTHING FARTHER EAST. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A
WAVE IN THE FLOW TO OUR NORTHEAST...BUT REALLY SHOULD CLIP OUR
AREA. THUS...WILL DOWNPLAY PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY...JUST
GOING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST.
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME IN ON FRIDAY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...BUT CHANCES WILL PROBABLY BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON LOCAL BOUNDARIES AND PREVIOUS CONVECTION. THUS...WILL
GO WITH A GENERAL SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP HIGHS FAIRLY
CLOSE TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN LATELY IN THE UPPER 80S TODAY AND
FRIDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL CONTINUE TO
FEATURE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. BY MONDAY
THOUGH...THE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND
A STRONG TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A
SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE PATTERN. MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT THIS
CHANGE FOR THE PAST FEW RUNS.

CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE...THE AREA HAS BEEN
UNDER WARM AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS EACH AFTERNOON WITH WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT CAUSING SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION EACH DAY. WARM AND
MOIST MAINLY WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY WITH
MORNING FOG GIVING WAY TO SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS EACH
AFTERNOON. THIS DIURNAL TREND CONTINUES TILL MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WHEN THE MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED SURFACE GRADIENT AND FORCING FOR
CONVECTION AND A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP NOT SEEN IN DAYS. AT
THIS TIME...MODELS ARE SLOWLY TRENDING WEAKER WITH THIS FRONT SO
HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY UNDER THE ALL MODEL BLEND SOLUTION BUT THIS
FEATURE STILL IS THE LARGEST CHANGE IN THE PATTERN YET. WENT WITH
LOW CHANCE POPS INTO WEDNESDAY AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

ANOTHER TYPICAL EASTERN KENTUCKY MORNING WITH MORE VALLEY FOG.
THIS FOG WILL BURN OFF OVER THE NEXT HOUR TO TWO HOURS. THIS WILL
BRING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY MID MORNING. SOME SCATTERED
CU WILL DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY
VFR THROUGH THE EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT AND WILL BRING VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS DOWN AT THE
TAF SITES ONCE MORE.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...KAS




000
FXUS63 KJKL 031614
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1214 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1214 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

A FEW SHORT-LIVED SHOWERS MANAGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN PIKE COUNTY EARLIER...HOWEVER THESE HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED.
THE CU FIELD HAS BEEN MORE PREVALENT IN THE EAST SO FAR AND THE
LATEST HRRR MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE BETTER POTENTIAL
FOR ANY ISOLATED ACTIVITY FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. DID GO AHEAD AND
ADD THUNDER FOR TODAY GIVEN THE MODERATELY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES TO DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING. HIGHS TODAY LOOK ON
TARGET...WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING AROUND THE 90 DEGREE MARK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

NO UPDATE THIS MORNING AS FORECAST IS ON TRACK. LOTS OF VALLEY FOG
OUT THERE SHOULD AND IT SHOULD BE BURNING OFF OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

NO PATTERN CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE A MEAGER CHANCE OF A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS TODAY
AND AGAIN FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AS FAR AS TODAY GOES...HI RES MODELS
ARE INDICATING THAT WE MAY BE IN A HOLE WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTION
TODAY...KEEPING EVERYTHING FARTHER EAST. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A
WAVE IN THE FLOW TO OUR NORTHEAST...BUT REALLY SHOULD CLIP OUR
AREA. THUS...WILL DOWNPLAY PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY...JUST
GOING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST.
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME IN ON FRIDAY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...BUT CHANCES WILL PROBABLY BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON LOCAL BOUNDARIES AND PREVIOUS CONVECTION. THUS...WILL
GO WITH A GENERAL SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP HIGHS FAIRLY
CLOSE TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN LATELY IN THE UPPER 80S TODAY AND
FRIDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL CONTINUE TO
FEATURE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. BY MONDAY
THOUGH...THE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND
A STRONG TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A
SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE PATTERN. MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT THIS
CHANGE FOR THE PAST FEW RUNS.

CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE...THE AREA HAS BEEN
UNDER WARM AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS EACH AFTERNOON WITH WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT CAUSING SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION EACH DAY. WARM AND
MOIST MAINLY WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY WITH
MORNING FOG GIVING WAY TO SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS EACH
AFTERNOON. THIS DIURNAL TREND CONTINUES TILL MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WHEN THE MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED SURFACE GRADIENT AND FORCING FOR
CONVECTION AND A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP NOT SEEN IN DAYS. AT
THIS TIME...MODELS ARE SLOWLY TRENDING WEAKER WITH THIS FRONT SO
HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY UNDER THE ALL MODEL BLEND SOLUTION BUT THIS
FEATURE STILL IS THE LARGEST CHANGE IN THE PATTERN YET. WENT WITH
LOW CHANCE POPS INTO WEDNESDAY AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

ANOTHER TYPICAL EASTERN KENTUCKY MORNING WITH MORE VALLEY FOG.
THIS FOG WILL BURN OFF OVER THE NEXT HOUR TO TWO HOURS. THIS WILL
BRING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY MID MORNING. SOME SCATTERED
CU WILL DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY
VFR THROUGH THE EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT AND WILL BRING VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS DOWN AT THE
TAF SITES ONCE MORE.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...KAS




000
FXUS63 KJKL 031614
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1214 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1214 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

A FEW SHORT-LIVED SHOWERS MANAGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN PIKE COUNTY EARLIER...HOWEVER THESE HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED.
THE CU FIELD HAS BEEN MORE PREVALENT IN THE EAST SO FAR AND THE
LATEST HRRR MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE BETTER POTENTIAL
FOR ANY ISOLATED ACTIVITY FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. DID GO AHEAD AND
ADD THUNDER FOR TODAY GIVEN THE MODERATELY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES TO DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING. HIGHS TODAY LOOK ON
TARGET...WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING AROUND THE 90 DEGREE MARK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

NO UPDATE THIS MORNING AS FORECAST IS ON TRACK. LOTS OF VALLEY FOG
OUT THERE SHOULD AND IT SHOULD BE BURNING OFF OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

NO PATTERN CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE A MEAGER CHANCE OF A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS TODAY
AND AGAIN FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AS FAR AS TODAY GOES...HI RES MODELS
ARE INDICATING THAT WE MAY BE IN A HOLE WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTION
TODAY...KEEPING EVERYTHING FARTHER EAST. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A
WAVE IN THE FLOW TO OUR NORTHEAST...BUT REALLY SHOULD CLIP OUR
AREA. THUS...WILL DOWNPLAY PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY...JUST
GOING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST.
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME IN ON FRIDAY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...BUT CHANCES WILL PROBABLY BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON LOCAL BOUNDARIES AND PREVIOUS CONVECTION. THUS...WILL
GO WITH A GENERAL SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP HIGHS FAIRLY
CLOSE TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN LATELY IN THE UPPER 80S TODAY AND
FRIDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL CONTINUE TO
FEATURE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. BY MONDAY
THOUGH...THE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND
A STRONG TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A
SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE PATTERN. MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT THIS
CHANGE FOR THE PAST FEW RUNS.

CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE...THE AREA HAS BEEN
UNDER WARM AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS EACH AFTERNOON WITH WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT CAUSING SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION EACH DAY. WARM AND
MOIST MAINLY WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY WITH
MORNING FOG GIVING WAY TO SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS EACH
AFTERNOON. THIS DIURNAL TREND CONTINUES TILL MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WHEN THE MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED SURFACE GRADIENT AND FORCING FOR
CONVECTION AND A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP NOT SEEN IN DAYS. AT
THIS TIME...MODELS ARE SLOWLY TRENDING WEAKER WITH THIS FRONT SO
HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY UNDER THE ALL MODEL BLEND SOLUTION BUT THIS
FEATURE STILL IS THE LARGEST CHANGE IN THE PATTERN YET. WENT WITH
LOW CHANCE POPS INTO WEDNESDAY AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

ANOTHER TYPICAL EASTERN KENTUCKY MORNING WITH MORE VALLEY FOG.
THIS FOG WILL BURN OFF OVER THE NEXT HOUR TO TWO HOURS. THIS WILL
BRING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY MID MORNING. SOME SCATTERED
CU WILL DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY
VFR THROUGH THE EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT AND WILL BRING VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS DOWN AT THE
TAF SITES ONCE MORE.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...KAS





000
FXUS63 KJKL 031136
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
736 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

NO UPDATE THIS MORNING AS FORECAST IS ON TRACK. LOTS OF VALLEY FOG
OUT THERE SHOULD AND IT SHOULD BE BURNING OFF OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

NO PATTERN CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE A MEAGER CHANCE OF A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS TODAY
AND AGAIN FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AS FAR AS TODAY GOES...HI RES MODELS
ARE INDICATING THAT WE MAY BE IN A HOLE WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTION
TODAY...KEEPING EVERYTHING FARTHER EAST. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A
WAVE IN THE FLOW TO OUR NORTHEAST...BUT REALLY SHOULD CLIP OUR
AREA. THUS...WILL DOWNPLAY PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY...JUST
GOING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST.
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME IN ON FRIDAY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...BUT CHANCES WILL PROBABLY BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON LOCAL BOUNDARIES AND PREVIOUS CONVECTION. THUS...WILL
GO WITH A GENERAL SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP HIGHS FAIRLY
CLOSE TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN LATELY IN THE UPPER 80S TODAY AND
FRIDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL CONTINUE TO
FEATURE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. BY MONDAY
THOUGH...THE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND
A STRONG TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A
SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE PATTERN. MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT THIS
CHANGE FOR THE PAST FEW RUNS.

CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE...THE AREA HAS BEEN
UNDER WARM AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS EACH AFTERNOON WITH WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT CAUSING SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION EACH DAY. WARM AND
MOIST MAINLY WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY WITH
MORNING FOG GIVING WAY TO SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS EACH
AFTERNOON. THIS DIURNAL TREND CONTINUES TILL MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WHEN THE MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED SURFACE GRADIENT AND FORCING FOR
CONVECTION AND A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP NOT SEEN IN DAYS. AT
THIS TIME...MODELS ARE SLOWLY TRENDING WEAKER WITH THIS FRONT SO
HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY UNDER THE ALL MODEL BLEND SOLUTION BUT THIS
FEATURE STILL IS THE LARGEST CHANGE IN THE PATTERN YET. WENT WITH
LOW CHANCE POPS INTO WEDNESDAY AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

ANOTHER TYPICAL EASTERN KENTUCKY MORNING WITH MORE VALLEY FOG.
THIS FOG WILL BURN OFF OVER THE NEXT HOUR TO TWO HOURS. THIS WILL
BRING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY MID MORNING. SOME SCATTERED
CU WILL DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY
VFR THROUGH THE EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT AND WILL BRING VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS DOWN AT THE
TAF SITES ONCE MORE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...KAS




000
FXUS63 KJKL 031136
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
736 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

NO UPDATE THIS MORNING AS FORECAST IS ON TRACK. LOTS OF VALLEY FOG
OUT THERE SHOULD AND IT SHOULD BE BURNING OFF OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

NO PATTERN CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE A MEAGER CHANCE OF A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS TODAY
AND AGAIN FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AS FAR AS TODAY GOES...HI RES MODELS
ARE INDICATING THAT WE MAY BE IN A HOLE WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTION
TODAY...KEEPING EVERYTHING FARTHER EAST. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A
WAVE IN THE FLOW TO OUR NORTHEAST...BUT REALLY SHOULD CLIP OUR
AREA. THUS...WILL DOWNPLAY PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY...JUST
GOING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST.
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME IN ON FRIDAY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...BUT CHANCES WILL PROBABLY BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON LOCAL BOUNDARIES AND PREVIOUS CONVECTION. THUS...WILL
GO WITH A GENERAL SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP HIGHS FAIRLY
CLOSE TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN LATELY IN THE UPPER 80S TODAY AND
FRIDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL CONTINUE TO
FEATURE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. BY MONDAY
THOUGH...THE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND
A STRONG TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A
SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE PATTERN. MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT THIS
CHANGE FOR THE PAST FEW RUNS.

CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE...THE AREA HAS BEEN
UNDER WARM AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS EACH AFTERNOON WITH WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT CAUSING SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION EACH DAY. WARM AND
MOIST MAINLY WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY WITH
MORNING FOG GIVING WAY TO SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS EACH
AFTERNOON. THIS DIURNAL TREND CONTINUES TILL MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WHEN THE MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED SURFACE GRADIENT AND FORCING FOR
CONVECTION AND A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP NOT SEEN IN DAYS. AT
THIS TIME...MODELS ARE SLOWLY TRENDING WEAKER WITH THIS FRONT SO
HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY UNDER THE ALL MODEL BLEND SOLUTION BUT THIS
FEATURE STILL IS THE LARGEST CHANGE IN THE PATTERN YET. WENT WITH
LOW CHANCE POPS INTO WEDNESDAY AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

ANOTHER TYPICAL EASTERN KENTUCKY MORNING WITH MORE VALLEY FOG.
THIS FOG WILL BURN OFF OVER THE NEXT HOUR TO TWO HOURS. THIS WILL
BRING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY MID MORNING. SOME SCATTERED
CU WILL DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY
VFR THROUGH THE EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT AND WILL BRING VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS DOWN AT THE
TAF SITES ONCE MORE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...KAS





000
FXUS63 KJKL 031136
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
736 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

NO UPDATE THIS MORNING AS FORECAST IS ON TRACK. LOTS OF VALLEY FOG
OUT THERE SHOULD AND IT SHOULD BE BURNING OFF OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

NO PATTERN CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE A MEAGER CHANCE OF A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS TODAY
AND AGAIN FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AS FAR AS TODAY GOES...HI RES MODELS
ARE INDICATING THAT WE MAY BE IN A HOLE WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTION
TODAY...KEEPING EVERYTHING FARTHER EAST. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A
WAVE IN THE FLOW TO OUR NORTHEAST...BUT REALLY SHOULD CLIP OUR
AREA. THUS...WILL DOWNPLAY PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY...JUST
GOING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST.
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME IN ON FRIDAY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...BUT CHANCES WILL PROBABLY BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON LOCAL BOUNDARIES AND PREVIOUS CONVECTION. THUS...WILL
GO WITH A GENERAL SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP HIGHS FAIRLY
CLOSE TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN LATELY IN THE UPPER 80S TODAY AND
FRIDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL CONTINUE TO
FEATURE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. BY MONDAY
THOUGH...THE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND
A STRONG TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A
SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE PATTERN. MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT THIS
CHANGE FOR THE PAST FEW RUNS.

CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE...THE AREA HAS BEEN
UNDER WARM AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS EACH AFTERNOON WITH WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT CAUSING SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION EACH DAY. WARM AND
MOIST MAINLY WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY WITH
MORNING FOG GIVING WAY TO SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS EACH
AFTERNOON. THIS DIURNAL TREND CONTINUES TILL MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WHEN THE MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED SURFACE GRADIENT AND FORCING FOR
CONVECTION AND A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP NOT SEEN IN DAYS. AT
THIS TIME...MODELS ARE SLOWLY TRENDING WEAKER WITH THIS FRONT SO
HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY UNDER THE ALL MODEL BLEND SOLUTION BUT THIS
FEATURE STILL IS THE LARGEST CHANGE IN THE PATTERN YET. WENT WITH
LOW CHANCE POPS INTO WEDNESDAY AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

ANOTHER TYPICAL EASTERN KENTUCKY MORNING WITH MORE VALLEY FOG.
THIS FOG WILL BURN OFF OVER THE NEXT HOUR TO TWO HOURS. THIS WILL
BRING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY MID MORNING. SOME SCATTERED
CU WILL DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY
VFR THROUGH THE EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT AND WILL BRING VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS DOWN AT THE
TAF SITES ONCE MORE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...KAS





000
FXUS63 KJKL 031136
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
736 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

NO UPDATE THIS MORNING AS FORECAST IS ON TRACK. LOTS OF VALLEY FOG
OUT THERE SHOULD AND IT SHOULD BE BURNING OFF OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

NO PATTERN CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE A MEAGER CHANCE OF A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS TODAY
AND AGAIN FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AS FAR AS TODAY GOES...HI RES MODELS
ARE INDICATING THAT WE MAY BE IN A HOLE WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTION
TODAY...KEEPING EVERYTHING FARTHER EAST. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A
WAVE IN THE FLOW TO OUR NORTHEAST...BUT REALLY SHOULD CLIP OUR
AREA. THUS...WILL DOWNPLAY PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY...JUST
GOING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST.
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME IN ON FRIDAY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...BUT CHANCES WILL PROBABLY BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON LOCAL BOUNDARIES AND PREVIOUS CONVECTION. THUS...WILL
GO WITH A GENERAL SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP HIGHS FAIRLY
CLOSE TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN LATELY IN THE UPPER 80S TODAY AND
FRIDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL CONTINUE TO
FEATURE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. BY MONDAY
THOUGH...THE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND
A STRONG TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A
SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE PATTERN. MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT THIS
CHANGE FOR THE PAST FEW RUNS.

CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE...THE AREA HAS BEEN
UNDER WARM AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS EACH AFTERNOON WITH WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT CAUSING SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION EACH DAY. WARM AND
MOIST MAINLY WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY WITH
MORNING FOG GIVING WAY TO SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS EACH
AFTERNOON. THIS DIURNAL TREND CONTINUES TILL MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WHEN THE MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED SURFACE GRADIENT AND FORCING FOR
CONVECTION AND A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP NOT SEEN IN DAYS. AT
THIS TIME...MODELS ARE SLOWLY TRENDING WEAKER WITH THIS FRONT SO
HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY UNDER THE ALL MODEL BLEND SOLUTION BUT THIS
FEATURE STILL IS THE LARGEST CHANGE IN THE PATTERN YET. WENT WITH
LOW CHANCE POPS INTO WEDNESDAY AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

ANOTHER TYPICAL EASTERN KENTUCKY MORNING WITH MORE VALLEY FOG.
THIS FOG WILL BURN OFF OVER THE NEXT HOUR TO TWO HOURS. THIS WILL
BRING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY MID MORNING. SOME SCATTERED
CU WILL DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY
VFR THROUGH THE EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT AND WILL BRING VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS DOWN AT THE
TAF SITES ONCE MORE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...KAS




000
FXUS63 KJKL 030747
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
347 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

NO PATTERN CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE A MEAGER CHANCE OF A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS TODAY
AND AGAIN FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AS FAR AS TODAY GOES...HI RES MODELS
ARE INDICATING THAT WE MAY BE IN A HOLE WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTION
TODAY...KEEPING EVERYTHING FARTHER EAST. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A
WAVE IN THE FLOW TO OUR NORTHEAST...BUT REALLY SHOULD CLIP OUR
AREA. THUS...WILL DOWNPLAY PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY...JUST
GOING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST.
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME IN ON FRIDAY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...BUT CHANCES WILL PROBABLY BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON LOCAL BOUNDARIES AND PREVIOUS CONVECTION. THUS...WILL
GO WITH A GENERAL SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP HIGHS FAIRLY
CLOSE TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN LATELY IN THE UPPER 80S TODAY AND
FRIDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL CONTINUE TO
FEATURE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. BY MONDAY
THOUGH...THE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND
A STRONG TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A
SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE PATTERN. MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT THIS
CHANGE FOR THE PAST FEW RUNS.

CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE...THE AREA HAS BEEN
UNDER WARM AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS EACH AFTERNOON WITH WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT CAUSING SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION EACH DAY. WARM AND
MOIST MAINLY WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY WITH
MORNING FOG GIVING WAY TO SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS EACH
AFTERNOON. THIS DIURNAL TREND CONTINUES TILL MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WHEN THE MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED SURFACE GRADIENT AND FORCING FOR
CONVECTION AND A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP NOT SEEN IN DAYS. AT
THIS TIME...MODELS ARE SLOWLY TRENDING WEAKER WITH THIS FRONT SO
HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY UNDER THE ALL MODEL BLEND SOLUTION BUT THIS
FEATURE STILL IS THE LARGEST CHANGE IN THE PATTERN YET. WENT WITH
LOW CHANCE POPS INTO WEDNESDAY AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 153 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

ANOTHER TYPICAL EASTERN KENTUCKY NIGHT WITH MORE VALLEY FOG
DEVELOPING AS WE SPEAK. SOME OF THIS FOG WILL IMPACT TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. GIVEN SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO LAST NIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS ABOUT WHERE THEY WERE LAST NIGHT AT THIS
TIME...OPTED TO BRING VISIBILITIES DOWN SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW
LAST NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE A MIX OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES
THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW CIGS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING BY MID MORNING. SOME SCATTERED CU WILL
DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY VFR
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...KAS




000
FXUS63 KJKL 030747
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
347 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

NO PATTERN CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE A MEAGER CHANCE OF A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS TODAY
AND AGAIN FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AS FAR AS TODAY GOES...HI RES MODELS
ARE INDICATING THAT WE MAY BE IN A HOLE WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTION
TODAY...KEEPING EVERYTHING FARTHER EAST. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A
WAVE IN THE FLOW TO OUR NORTHEAST...BUT REALLY SHOULD CLIP OUR
AREA. THUS...WILL DOWNPLAY PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY...JUST
GOING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST.
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME IN ON FRIDAY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...BUT CHANCES WILL PROBABLY BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON LOCAL BOUNDARIES AND PREVIOUS CONVECTION. THUS...WILL
GO WITH A GENERAL SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP HIGHS FAIRLY
CLOSE TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN LATELY IN THE UPPER 80S TODAY AND
FRIDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL CONTINUE TO
FEATURE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. BY MONDAY
THOUGH...THE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND
A STRONG TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A
SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE PATTERN. MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT THIS
CHANGE FOR THE PAST FEW RUNS.

CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE...THE AREA HAS BEEN
UNDER WARM AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS EACH AFTERNOON WITH WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT CAUSING SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION EACH DAY. WARM AND
MOIST MAINLY WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY WITH
MORNING FOG GIVING WAY TO SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS EACH
AFTERNOON. THIS DIURNAL TREND CONTINUES TILL MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WHEN THE MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED SURFACE GRADIENT AND FORCING FOR
CONVECTION AND A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP NOT SEEN IN DAYS. AT
THIS TIME...MODELS ARE SLOWLY TRENDING WEAKER WITH THIS FRONT SO
HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY UNDER THE ALL MODEL BLEND SOLUTION BUT THIS
FEATURE STILL IS THE LARGEST CHANGE IN THE PATTERN YET. WENT WITH
LOW CHANCE POPS INTO WEDNESDAY AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 153 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

ANOTHER TYPICAL EASTERN KENTUCKY NIGHT WITH MORE VALLEY FOG
DEVELOPING AS WE SPEAK. SOME OF THIS FOG WILL IMPACT TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. GIVEN SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO LAST NIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS ABOUT WHERE THEY WERE LAST NIGHT AT THIS
TIME...OPTED TO BRING VISIBILITIES DOWN SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW
LAST NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE A MIX OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES
THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW CIGS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING BY MID MORNING. SOME SCATTERED CU WILL
DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY VFR
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...KAS





000
FXUS63 KJKL 030747
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
347 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

NO PATTERN CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE A MEAGER CHANCE OF A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS TODAY
AND AGAIN FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AS FAR AS TODAY GOES...HI RES MODELS
ARE INDICATING THAT WE MAY BE IN A HOLE WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTION
TODAY...KEEPING EVERYTHING FARTHER EAST. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A
WAVE IN THE FLOW TO OUR NORTHEAST...BUT REALLY SHOULD CLIP OUR
AREA. THUS...WILL DOWNPLAY PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY...JUST
GOING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST.
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME IN ON FRIDAY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...BUT CHANCES WILL PROBABLY BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON LOCAL BOUNDARIES AND PREVIOUS CONVECTION. THUS...WILL
GO WITH A GENERAL SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP HIGHS FAIRLY
CLOSE TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN LATELY IN THE UPPER 80S TODAY AND
FRIDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL CONTINUE TO
FEATURE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. BY MONDAY
THOUGH...THE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND
A STRONG TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A
SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE PATTERN. MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT THIS
CHANGE FOR THE PAST FEW RUNS.

CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE...THE AREA HAS BEEN
UNDER WARM AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS EACH AFTERNOON WITH WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT CAUSING SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION EACH DAY. WARM AND
MOIST MAINLY WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY WITH
MORNING FOG GIVING WAY TO SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS EACH
AFTERNOON. THIS DIURNAL TREND CONTINUES TILL MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WHEN THE MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED SURFACE GRADIENT AND FORCING FOR
CONVECTION AND A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP NOT SEEN IN DAYS. AT
THIS TIME...MODELS ARE SLOWLY TRENDING WEAKER WITH THIS FRONT SO
HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY UNDER THE ALL MODEL BLEND SOLUTION BUT THIS
FEATURE STILL IS THE LARGEST CHANGE IN THE PATTERN YET. WENT WITH
LOW CHANCE POPS INTO WEDNESDAY AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 153 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

ANOTHER TYPICAL EASTERN KENTUCKY NIGHT WITH MORE VALLEY FOG
DEVELOPING AS WE SPEAK. SOME OF THIS FOG WILL IMPACT TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. GIVEN SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO LAST NIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS ABOUT WHERE THEY WERE LAST NIGHT AT THIS
TIME...OPTED TO BRING VISIBILITIES DOWN SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW
LAST NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE A MIX OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES
THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW CIGS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING BY MID MORNING. SOME SCATTERED CU WILL
DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY VFR
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...KAS





000
FXUS63 KJKL 030747
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
347 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

NO PATTERN CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE A MEAGER CHANCE OF A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS TODAY
AND AGAIN FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AS FAR AS TODAY GOES...HI RES MODELS
ARE INDICATING THAT WE MAY BE IN A HOLE WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTION
TODAY...KEEPING EVERYTHING FARTHER EAST. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A
WAVE IN THE FLOW TO OUR NORTHEAST...BUT REALLY SHOULD CLIP OUR
AREA. THUS...WILL DOWNPLAY PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY...JUST
GOING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST.
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME IN ON FRIDAY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...BUT CHANCES WILL PROBABLY BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON LOCAL BOUNDARIES AND PREVIOUS CONVECTION. THUS...WILL
GO WITH A GENERAL SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP HIGHS FAIRLY
CLOSE TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN LATELY IN THE UPPER 80S TODAY AND
FRIDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL CONTINUE TO
FEATURE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. BY MONDAY
THOUGH...THE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND
A STRONG TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A
SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE PATTERN. MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT THIS
CHANGE FOR THE PAST FEW RUNS.

CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE...THE AREA HAS BEEN
UNDER WARM AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS EACH AFTERNOON WITH WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT CAUSING SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION EACH DAY. WARM AND
MOIST MAINLY WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY WITH
MORNING FOG GIVING WAY TO SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS EACH
AFTERNOON. THIS DIURNAL TREND CONTINUES TILL MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WHEN THE MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED SURFACE GRADIENT AND FORCING FOR
CONVECTION AND A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP NOT SEEN IN DAYS. AT
THIS TIME...MODELS ARE SLOWLY TRENDING WEAKER WITH THIS FRONT SO
HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY UNDER THE ALL MODEL BLEND SOLUTION BUT THIS
FEATURE STILL IS THE LARGEST CHANGE IN THE PATTERN YET. WENT WITH
LOW CHANCE POPS INTO WEDNESDAY AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 153 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

ANOTHER TYPICAL EASTERN KENTUCKY NIGHT WITH MORE VALLEY FOG
DEVELOPING AS WE SPEAK. SOME OF THIS FOG WILL IMPACT TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. GIVEN SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO LAST NIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS ABOUT WHERE THEY WERE LAST NIGHT AT THIS
TIME...OPTED TO BRING VISIBILITIES DOWN SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW
LAST NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE A MIX OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES
THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW CIGS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING BY MID MORNING. SOME SCATTERED CU WILL
DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY VFR
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...KAS




000
FXUS63 KJKL 030657
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
257 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

NO PATTERN CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE A MEAGER CHANCE OF A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS TODAY
AND AGAIN FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AS FAR AS TODAY GOES...HI RES MODELS
ARE INDICATING THAT WE MAY BE IN A HOLE WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTION
TODAY...KEEPING EVERYTHING FARTHER EAST. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A
WAVE IN THE FLOW TO OUR NORTHEAST...BUT REALLY SHOULD CLIP OUR
AREA. THUS...WILL DOWNPLAY PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY...JUST
GOING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST.
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME IN ON FRIDAY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...BUT CHANCES WILL PROBABLY BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON LOCAL BOUNDARIES AND PREVIOUS CONVECTION. THUS...WILL
GO WITH A GENERAL SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP HIGHS FAIRLY
CLOSE TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN LATELY IN THE UPPER 80S TODAY AND
FRIDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

LONG TERM DISCUSSION TO FOLLOW SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 153 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

ANOTHER TYPICAL EASTERN KENTUCKY NIGHT WITH MORE VALLEY FOG
DEVELOPING AS WE SPEAK. SOME OF THIS FOG WILL IMPACT TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. GIVEN SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO LAST NIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS ABOUT WHERE THEY WERE LAST NIGHT AT THIS
TIME...OPTED TO BRING VISIBILITIES DOWN SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW
LAST NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE A MIX OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES
THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW CIGS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING BY MID MORNING. SOME SCATTERED CU WILL
DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY VFR
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...KAS





000
FXUS63 KJKL 030657
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
257 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

NO PATTERN CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE A MEAGER CHANCE OF A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS TODAY
AND AGAIN FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AS FAR AS TODAY GOES...HI RES MODELS
ARE INDICATING THAT WE MAY BE IN A HOLE WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTION
TODAY...KEEPING EVERYTHING FARTHER EAST. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A
WAVE IN THE FLOW TO OUR NORTHEAST...BUT REALLY SHOULD CLIP OUR
AREA. THUS...WILL DOWNPLAY PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY...JUST
GOING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST.
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME IN ON FRIDAY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...BUT CHANCES WILL PROBABLY BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON LOCAL BOUNDARIES AND PREVIOUS CONVECTION. THUS...WILL
GO WITH A GENERAL SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP HIGHS FAIRLY
CLOSE TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN LATELY IN THE UPPER 80S TODAY AND
FRIDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

LONG TERM DISCUSSION TO FOLLOW SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 153 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

ANOTHER TYPICAL EASTERN KENTUCKY NIGHT WITH MORE VALLEY FOG
DEVELOPING AS WE SPEAK. SOME OF THIS FOG WILL IMPACT TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. GIVEN SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO LAST NIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS ABOUT WHERE THEY WERE LAST NIGHT AT THIS
TIME...OPTED TO BRING VISIBILITIES DOWN SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW
LAST NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE A MIX OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES
THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW CIGS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING BY MID MORNING. SOME SCATTERED CU WILL
DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY VFR
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...KAS




000
FXUS63 KJKL 030657
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
257 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

NO PATTERN CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE A MEAGER CHANCE OF A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS TODAY
AND AGAIN FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AS FAR AS TODAY GOES...HI RES MODELS
ARE INDICATING THAT WE MAY BE IN A HOLE WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTION
TODAY...KEEPING EVERYTHING FARTHER EAST. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A
WAVE IN THE FLOW TO OUR NORTHEAST...BUT REALLY SHOULD CLIP OUR
AREA. THUS...WILL DOWNPLAY PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY...JUST
GOING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST.
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME IN ON FRIDAY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...BUT CHANCES WILL PROBABLY BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON LOCAL BOUNDARIES AND PREVIOUS CONVECTION. THUS...WILL
GO WITH A GENERAL SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP HIGHS FAIRLY
CLOSE TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN LATELY IN THE UPPER 80S TODAY AND
FRIDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

LONG TERM DISCUSSION TO FOLLOW SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 153 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

ANOTHER TYPICAL EASTERN KENTUCKY NIGHT WITH MORE VALLEY FOG
DEVELOPING AS WE SPEAK. SOME OF THIS FOG WILL IMPACT TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. GIVEN SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO LAST NIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS ABOUT WHERE THEY WERE LAST NIGHT AT THIS
TIME...OPTED TO BRING VISIBILITIES DOWN SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW
LAST NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE A MIX OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES
THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW CIGS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING BY MID MORNING. SOME SCATTERED CU WILL
DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY VFR
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...KAS




000
FXUS63 KJKL 030657
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
257 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

NO PATTERN CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE A MEAGER CHANCE OF A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS TODAY
AND AGAIN FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AS FAR AS TODAY GOES...HI RES MODELS
ARE INDICATING THAT WE MAY BE IN A HOLE WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTION
TODAY...KEEPING EVERYTHING FARTHER EAST. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A
WAVE IN THE FLOW TO OUR NORTHEAST...BUT REALLY SHOULD CLIP OUR
AREA. THUS...WILL DOWNPLAY PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY...JUST
GOING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST.
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME IN ON FRIDAY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...BUT CHANCES WILL PROBABLY BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON LOCAL BOUNDARIES AND PREVIOUS CONVECTION. THUS...WILL
GO WITH A GENERAL SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP HIGHS FAIRLY
CLOSE TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN LATELY IN THE UPPER 80S TODAY AND
FRIDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

LONG TERM DISCUSSION TO FOLLOW SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 153 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

ANOTHER TYPICAL EASTERN KENTUCKY NIGHT WITH MORE VALLEY FOG
DEVELOPING AS WE SPEAK. SOME OF THIS FOG WILL IMPACT TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. GIVEN SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO LAST NIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS ABOUT WHERE THEY WERE LAST NIGHT AT THIS
TIME...OPTED TO BRING VISIBILITIES DOWN SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW
LAST NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE A MIX OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES
THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW CIGS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING BY MID MORNING. SOME SCATTERED CU WILL
DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY VFR
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...KAS





000
FXUS63 KJKL 030553
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
153 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 153 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TO OUR NORTHEAST WITH A SLIGHT
DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST. BASED ON TRENDS...NOT EXPECTING THIS
ACTIVITY TO REACH OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT OR EVEN
THROUGH THE MORNING. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST THROUGH
THE UPCOMING MORNING. STARTING TO SEE SOME LIGHT FOG DEVELOPING AT
A FEW LOCATIONS AND THE RIVER VALLEY FOG SHOULD CONTINUE TO FILL
IN AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE NEXT 2 TO 5 HOURS. CURRENT FORECAST HAS
EVERYTHING COVERED WELL...SO ONLY SOME MINOR CHANGES TO FRESHEN UP
THE FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1033 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

FORECAST SEEMS TO BE WELL ON TRACK THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOWED QUICK DIMINISHMENT ACROSS THE CWA OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL HOURS. A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN OHIO
AND SLOWLY MOVED SOUTHWARD TOWARDS OUR CWA...BUT LUCKILY FIZZLED
OUT JUST AS IT GOT TO OUR BORDER...SO NO UPDATES WERE NEEDED TO
ACCOMMODATE THIS ISOLATED CONVECTION. FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT...EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO SHOW A CLEARING TREND ACROSS
THE REGION. A LARGER MASS OF CLOUDS IS STILL LOCATED OVER EASTERN
TN AND MAY CONTINUE TO IMPACT FAR SOUTHEAST KY. IF THIS IS THE
CASE...THIS COULD HELP TO REDUCE SOME OF THE FOG IMPACTS FOR THIS
AREA...BUT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR. TEMPERATURES WILL
START TO QUICKLY DROP OFF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...WITH FOG
STILL EXPECTED TO BEGIN FORMING AT THIS POINT.

MAIN CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE INCLUDED LOADED IN THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS TO MAKE SURE
THE CURRENT CONDITIONS WERE WELL REFLECTED IN THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST. ALL OTHER PARAMETERS INCLUDING POPS...SKY...AND
WEATHER...DID NOT NEED ANY UPDATES AT THIS TIME. GRIDS WERE
PUBLISHED AND SENT TO NDFD AND WEB. A NEW FORECAST PACKAGE HAS
BEEN SENT OUT AS WELL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 557 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

MADE SEVERAL UPDATES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING AND
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. GIVEN THE ONGOING RAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CWA...WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS SO THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOWED UP IN THE
WEATHER GRIDS. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO DIMINISH AFTER 0Z ONCE WE
LOSE SOME OF THE BEST SUN/HEATING. UNTIL THEN...THESE STORMS ARE
SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD SUSTAINABILITY WITH IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOWS
SHOWING UP ON THE RADAR RETURNS...SO EXPECT THEM TO HOLD ON FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS AS THEY DROP SOUTHWARD. POPS WILL LIKELY INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW WITH THE AID OF THE AFTERNOON HEATING...VERY
SIMILAR TO THAT OF TODAY WITH PERHAPS A BIT BETTER COVERAGE. AS
SUCH...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED THE ISL/CHANCE POPS THAT WERE IN THE
FORECAST BETWEEN 10 AND 15Z TOMORROW...SINCE IT IS UNLIKELY THAT
WE WILL SEE ANYTHING BEGIN POPPING UP UNTIL AFTER THIS TIME.

AFTER ADJUSTING THE POPS...WENT AHEAD AND RERAN THE WEATHER GRIDS
TO MAKE SURE THE CHANGES WERE REFLECTED HERE AS WELL. IN
ADDITION...TOOK OUT THE WIDESPREAD AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE
CWA...SINCE /AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS/ MOST
OF THE FOG SHOULD BE CONTAINED TO THE VALLEYS AND CLOSE TO BODIES
OF WATER. KEPT IN THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE FOG...BUT CONFINED IT
TO THESE VALLEY LOCATIONS. THIS MORNING/S VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONFIRMS THIS THINKING...ESPECIALLY SINCE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY
AIRMASS CHANGES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT COMPARED TO THAT OF LAST
NIGHT.

GIVEN OUR TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER IN MANY
LOCATIONS COMPARED TO THAT OF YESTERDAY /THANKS TO THE CONTINUED
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD/...EXPECT
LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TO FOLLOW THE SAME PATTERN...WITH
LOCATIONS GENERALLY EXPERIENCING LOW TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN THAT OF LAST NIGHT. AS SUCH...FELT FORECASTED
OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE TOO LOW IN MOST LOCATIONS...SO WENT AHEAD AND
BUMPED THEM UP ACCORDINGLY. DID TRY TO INCLUDE A BIT OF A RIDGE
VALLEY SPLIT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS. WE MAY HAVE A
BIT MORE CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...AND ALONG WITH NRLY
WINDS...THIS MAY PROHIBIT DAYTIME TEMPS FROM BEING QUITE AS WARM
AS THEY WERE TODAY IN SOME LOCATIONS. THIS WAS WELL REFLECTED IN
TOMORROW/S HIGH TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT
TOMORROW NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL ACCORDINGLY ONCE
AGAIN. ENDED UP UPDATING THE OVERNIGHT LOW FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING TO ADJUST THE TEMP DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES
TO BETTER COORDINATE WITH THIS SLIGHT DROP IN TEMPERATURE.

FINALLY...I RERAN THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE BASED ON
CLIMATOLOGY SINCE THIS WILL LIKELY BEST CAPTURE THE HIGH PRESSURE
DIURNAL PATTERN THAT WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. I ALSO LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS TO MAKE SURE THE
NEAR TERM GRIDS WERE A GOOD REFLECTION OF THE CURRENT CONDITIONS.
ALL GRIDS WERE PUBLISHED AND SENT TO NDFD...AND A NEW ZONE
FORECAST PACKAGE HAS BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SHOWERS TO OUR NORTH HAVE QUICKLY DISSIPATED AS THEY MOVED INTO
OUR AREA DUE TO THE DRY AIR/RIDGING IN PLACE. THERE IS STILL A
SLIGHT CHANCE A COUPLE ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP LATE THIS
EVENING BUT OTHERWISE THINGS SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNTIL THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

AT UPPER LEVELS...LOWER HEIGHTS WILL ADVECT IN ON THURSDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIVES SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
SOME OF THIS FORCING...ALONG WITH SOME ENERGY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY ALLOWING FOR A
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE (20-30 POPS) OF SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING ALLOWING FOR A DRY PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.

FOG IS POSSIBLE BOTH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MORE
FOG POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT IN LOCATIONS THAT MAY SEE SOME
RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S WITH LOWS
BOTH NIGHTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MORE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES CROP UP RIGHT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...
AND BEYOND. A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
OUT AND ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL FLATTEN A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST...EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO HUDSON BAY.
A WEAK AREA OF TROUGHING ALOFT...OR TROUGHINESS STRETCHING FROM THE
MIDWEST...THROUGH THE COMMONWEALTH AND SOUTHEAST TO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WILL LINGER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WITH RESPECT TO SENSIBLE WEATHER...OUR SUMMERTIME LIKE WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS ON AVERAGE. CONSIDERING THE MORE RECENT DRY
CONDITIONS AND H850 TEMPS APPROACHING 20C...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 EACH DAY THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.
IN GENERAL WENT WITH MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS AND LOW TO MID 60S
FOR MINS EACH DAY. POPS WILL GENERALLY DEPEND MORE ON SMALL SCALE
TYPE FEATURES AND DIURNAL HEATING VERSUS SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS...THOUGH
MODELS DO HINT AT SOME TYPE OF BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH OUR AREA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND OR BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONSEQUENTLY OR BEST CHANCE AT ANY RAINFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR POSSIBLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 153 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

ANOTHER TYPICAL EASTERN KENTUCKY NIGHT WITH MORE VALLEY FOG
DEVELOPING AS WE SPEAK. SOME OF THIS FOG WILL IMPACT TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. GIVEN SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO LAST NIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS ABOUT WHERE THEY WERE LAST NIGHT AT THIS
TIME...OPTED TO BRING VISIBILITIES DOWN SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW
LAST NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE A MIX OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES
THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW CIGS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING BY MID MORNING. SOME SCATTERED CU WILL
DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY VFR
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...KAS





000
FXUS63 KJKL 030553
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
153 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 153 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TO OUR NORTHEAST WITH A SLIGHT
DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST. BASED ON TRENDS...NOT EXPECTING THIS
ACTIVITY TO REACH OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT OR EVEN
THROUGH THE MORNING. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST THROUGH
THE UPCOMING MORNING. STARTING TO SEE SOME LIGHT FOG DEVELOPING AT
A FEW LOCATIONS AND THE RIVER VALLEY FOG SHOULD CONTINUE TO FILL
IN AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE NEXT 2 TO 5 HOURS. CURRENT FORECAST HAS
EVERYTHING COVERED WELL...SO ONLY SOME MINOR CHANGES TO FRESHEN UP
THE FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1033 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

FORECAST SEEMS TO BE WELL ON TRACK THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOWED QUICK DIMINISHMENT ACROSS THE CWA OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL HOURS. A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN OHIO
AND SLOWLY MOVED SOUTHWARD TOWARDS OUR CWA...BUT LUCKILY FIZZLED
OUT JUST AS IT GOT TO OUR BORDER...SO NO UPDATES WERE NEEDED TO
ACCOMMODATE THIS ISOLATED CONVECTION. FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT...EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO SHOW A CLEARING TREND ACROSS
THE REGION. A LARGER MASS OF CLOUDS IS STILL LOCATED OVER EASTERN
TN AND MAY CONTINUE TO IMPACT FAR SOUTHEAST KY. IF THIS IS THE
CASE...THIS COULD HELP TO REDUCE SOME OF THE FOG IMPACTS FOR THIS
AREA...BUT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR. TEMPERATURES WILL
START TO QUICKLY DROP OFF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...WITH FOG
STILL EXPECTED TO BEGIN FORMING AT THIS POINT.

MAIN CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE INCLUDED LOADED IN THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS TO MAKE SURE
THE CURRENT CONDITIONS WERE WELL REFLECTED IN THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST. ALL OTHER PARAMETERS INCLUDING POPS...SKY...AND
WEATHER...DID NOT NEED ANY UPDATES AT THIS TIME. GRIDS WERE
PUBLISHED AND SENT TO NDFD AND WEB. A NEW FORECAST PACKAGE HAS
BEEN SENT OUT AS WELL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 557 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

MADE SEVERAL UPDATES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING AND
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. GIVEN THE ONGOING RAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CWA...WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS SO THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOWED UP IN THE
WEATHER GRIDS. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO DIMINISH AFTER 0Z ONCE WE
LOSE SOME OF THE BEST SUN/HEATING. UNTIL THEN...THESE STORMS ARE
SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD SUSTAINABILITY WITH IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOWS
SHOWING UP ON THE RADAR RETURNS...SO EXPECT THEM TO HOLD ON FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS AS THEY DROP SOUTHWARD. POPS WILL LIKELY INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW WITH THE AID OF THE AFTERNOON HEATING...VERY
SIMILAR TO THAT OF TODAY WITH PERHAPS A BIT BETTER COVERAGE. AS
SUCH...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED THE ISL/CHANCE POPS THAT WERE IN THE
FORECAST BETWEEN 10 AND 15Z TOMORROW...SINCE IT IS UNLIKELY THAT
WE WILL SEE ANYTHING BEGIN POPPING UP UNTIL AFTER THIS TIME.

AFTER ADJUSTING THE POPS...WENT AHEAD AND RERAN THE WEATHER GRIDS
TO MAKE SURE THE CHANGES WERE REFLECTED HERE AS WELL. IN
ADDITION...TOOK OUT THE WIDESPREAD AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE
CWA...SINCE /AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS/ MOST
OF THE FOG SHOULD BE CONTAINED TO THE VALLEYS AND CLOSE TO BODIES
OF WATER. KEPT IN THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE FOG...BUT CONFINED IT
TO THESE VALLEY LOCATIONS. THIS MORNING/S VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONFIRMS THIS THINKING...ESPECIALLY SINCE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY
AIRMASS CHANGES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT COMPARED TO THAT OF LAST
NIGHT.

GIVEN OUR TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER IN MANY
LOCATIONS COMPARED TO THAT OF YESTERDAY /THANKS TO THE CONTINUED
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD/...EXPECT
LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TO FOLLOW THE SAME PATTERN...WITH
LOCATIONS GENERALLY EXPERIENCING LOW TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN THAT OF LAST NIGHT. AS SUCH...FELT FORECASTED
OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE TOO LOW IN MOST LOCATIONS...SO WENT AHEAD AND
BUMPED THEM UP ACCORDINGLY. DID TRY TO INCLUDE A BIT OF A RIDGE
VALLEY SPLIT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS. WE MAY HAVE A
BIT MORE CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...AND ALONG WITH NRLY
WINDS...THIS MAY PROHIBIT DAYTIME TEMPS FROM BEING QUITE AS WARM
AS THEY WERE TODAY IN SOME LOCATIONS. THIS WAS WELL REFLECTED IN
TOMORROW/S HIGH TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT
TOMORROW NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL ACCORDINGLY ONCE
AGAIN. ENDED UP UPDATING THE OVERNIGHT LOW FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING TO ADJUST THE TEMP DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES
TO BETTER COORDINATE WITH THIS SLIGHT DROP IN TEMPERATURE.

FINALLY...I RERAN THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE BASED ON
CLIMATOLOGY SINCE THIS WILL LIKELY BEST CAPTURE THE HIGH PRESSURE
DIURNAL PATTERN THAT WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. I ALSO LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS TO MAKE SURE THE
NEAR TERM GRIDS WERE A GOOD REFLECTION OF THE CURRENT CONDITIONS.
ALL GRIDS WERE PUBLISHED AND SENT TO NDFD...AND A NEW ZONE
FORECAST PACKAGE HAS BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SHOWERS TO OUR NORTH HAVE QUICKLY DISSIPATED AS THEY MOVED INTO
OUR AREA DUE TO THE DRY AIR/RIDGING IN PLACE. THERE IS STILL A
SLIGHT CHANCE A COUPLE ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP LATE THIS
EVENING BUT OTHERWISE THINGS SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNTIL THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

AT UPPER LEVELS...LOWER HEIGHTS WILL ADVECT IN ON THURSDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIVES SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
SOME OF THIS FORCING...ALONG WITH SOME ENERGY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY ALLOWING FOR A
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE (20-30 POPS) OF SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING ALLOWING FOR A DRY PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.

FOG IS POSSIBLE BOTH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MORE
FOG POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT IN LOCATIONS THAT MAY SEE SOME
RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S WITH LOWS
BOTH NIGHTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MORE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES CROP UP RIGHT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...
AND BEYOND. A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
OUT AND ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL FLATTEN A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST...EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO HUDSON BAY.
A WEAK AREA OF TROUGHING ALOFT...OR TROUGHINESS STRETCHING FROM THE
MIDWEST...THROUGH THE COMMONWEALTH AND SOUTHEAST TO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WILL LINGER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WITH RESPECT TO SENSIBLE WEATHER...OUR SUMMERTIME LIKE WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS ON AVERAGE. CONSIDERING THE MORE RECENT DRY
CONDITIONS AND H850 TEMPS APPROACHING 20C...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 EACH DAY THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.
IN GENERAL WENT WITH MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS AND LOW TO MID 60S
FOR MINS EACH DAY. POPS WILL GENERALLY DEPEND MORE ON SMALL SCALE
TYPE FEATURES AND DIURNAL HEATING VERSUS SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS...THOUGH
MODELS DO HINT AT SOME TYPE OF BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH OUR AREA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND OR BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONSEQUENTLY OR BEST CHANCE AT ANY RAINFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR POSSIBLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 153 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

ANOTHER TYPICAL EASTERN KENTUCKY NIGHT WITH MORE VALLEY FOG
DEVELOPING AS WE SPEAK. SOME OF THIS FOG WILL IMPACT TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. GIVEN SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO LAST NIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS ABOUT WHERE THEY WERE LAST NIGHT AT THIS
TIME...OPTED TO BRING VISIBILITIES DOWN SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW
LAST NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE A MIX OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES
THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW CIGS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING BY MID MORNING. SOME SCATTERED CU WILL
DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY VFR
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...KAS





000
FXUS63 KJKL 030553
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
153 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 153 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TO OUR NORTHEAST WITH A SLIGHT
DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST. BASED ON TRENDS...NOT EXPECTING THIS
ACTIVITY TO REACH OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT OR EVEN
THROUGH THE MORNING. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST THROUGH
THE UPCOMING MORNING. STARTING TO SEE SOME LIGHT FOG DEVELOPING AT
A FEW LOCATIONS AND THE RIVER VALLEY FOG SHOULD CONTINUE TO FILL
IN AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE NEXT 2 TO 5 HOURS. CURRENT FORECAST HAS
EVERYTHING COVERED WELL...SO ONLY SOME MINOR CHANGES TO FRESHEN UP
THE FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1033 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

FORECAST SEEMS TO BE WELL ON TRACK THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOWED QUICK DIMINISHMENT ACROSS THE CWA OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL HOURS. A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN OHIO
AND SLOWLY MOVED SOUTHWARD TOWARDS OUR CWA...BUT LUCKILY FIZZLED
OUT JUST AS IT GOT TO OUR BORDER...SO NO UPDATES WERE NEEDED TO
ACCOMMODATE THIS ISOLATED CONVECTION. FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT...EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO SHOW A CLEARING TREND ACROSS
THE REGION. A LARGER MASS OF CLOUDS IS STILL LOCATED OVER EASTERN
TN AND MAY CONTINUE TO IMPACT FAR SOUTHEAST KY. IF THIS IS THE
CASE...THIS COULD HELP TO REDUCE SOME OF THE FOG IMPACTS FOR THIS
AREA...BUT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR. TEMPERATURES WILL
START TO QUICKLY DROP OFF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...WITH FOG
STILL EXPECTED TO BEGIN FORMING AT THIS POINT.

MAIN CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE INCLUDED LOADED IN THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS TO MAKE SURE
THE CURRENT CONDITIONS WERE WELL REFLECTED IN THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST. ALL OTHER PARAMETERS INCLUDING POPS...SKY...AND
WEATHER...DID NOT NEED ANY UPDATES AT THIS TIME. GRIDS WERE
PUBLISHED AND SENT TO NDFD AND WEB. A NEW FORECAST PACKAGE HAS
BEEN SENT OUT AS WELL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 557 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

MADE SEVERAL UPDATES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING AND
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. GIVEN THE ONGOING RAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CWA...WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS SO THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOWED UP IN THE
WEATHER GRIDS. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO DIMINISH AFTER 0Z ONCE WE
LOSE SOME OF THE BEST SUN/HEATING. UNTIL THEN...THESE STORMS ARE
SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD SUSTAINABILITY WITH IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOWS
SHOWING UP ON THE RADAR RETURNS...SO EXPECT THEM TO HOLD ON FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS AS THEY DROP SOUTHWARD. POPS WILL LIKELY INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW WITH THE AID OF THE AFTERNOON HEATING...VERY
SIMILAR TO THAT OF TODAY WITH PERHAPS A BIT BETTER COVERAGE. AS
SUCH...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED THE ISL/CHANCE POPS THAT WERE IN THE
FORECAST BETWEEN 10 AND 15Z TOMORROW...SINCE IT IS UNLIKELY THAT
WE WILL SEE ANYTHING BEGIN POPPING UP UNTIL AFTER THIS TIME.

AFTER ADJUSTING THE POPS...WENT AHEAD AND RERAN THE WEATHER GRIDS
TO MAKE SURE THE CHANGES WERE REFLECTED HERE AS WELL. IN
ADDITION...TOOK OUT THE WIDESPREAD AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE
CWA...SINCE /AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS/ MOST
OF THE FOG SHOULD BE CONTAINED TO THE VALLEYS AND CLOSE TO BODIES
OF WATER. KEPT IN THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE FOG...BUT CONFINED IT
TO THESE VALLEY LOCATIONS. THIS MORNING/S VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONFIRMS THIS THINKING...ESPECIALLY SINCE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY
AIRMASS CHANGES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT COMPARED TO THAT OF LAST
NIGHT.

GIVEN OUR TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER IN MANY
LOCATIONS COMPARED TO THAT OF YESTERDAY /THANKS TO THE CONTINUED
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD/...EXPECT
LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TO FOLLOW THE SAME PATTERN...WITH
LOCATIONS GENERALLY EXPERIENCING LOW TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN THAT OF LAST NIGHT. AS SUCH...FELT FORECASTED
OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE TOO LOW IN MOST LOCATIONS...SO WENT AHEAD AND
BUMPED THEM UP ACCORDINGLY. DID TRY TO INCLUDE A BIT OF A RIDGE
VALLEY SPLIT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS. WE MAY HAVE A
BIT MORE CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...AND ALONG WITH NRLY
WINDS...THIS MAY PROHIBIT DAYTIME TEMPS FROM BEING QUITE AS WARM
AS THEY WERE TODAY IN SOME LOCATIONS. THIS WAS WELL REFLECTED IN
TOMORROW/S HIGH TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT
TOMORROW NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL ACCORDINGLY ONCE
AGAIN. ENDED UP UPDATING THE OVERNIGHT LOW FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING TO ADJUST THE TEMP DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES
TO BETTER COORDINATE WITH THIS SLIGHT DROP IN TEMPERATURE.

FINALLY...I RERAN THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE BASED ON
CLIMATOLOGY SINCE THIS WILL LIKELY BEST CAPTURE THE HIGH PRESSURE
DIURNAL PATTERN THAT WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. I ALSO LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS TO MAKE SURE THE
NEAR TERM GRIDS WERE A GOOD REFLECTION OF THE CURRENT CONDITIONS.
ALL GRIDS WERE PUBLISHED AND SENT TO NDFD...AND A NEW ZONE
FORECAST PACKAGE HAS BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SHOWERS TO OUR NORTH HAVE QUICKLY DISSIPATED AS THEY MOVED INTO
OUR AREA DUE TO THE DRY AIR/RIDGING IN PLACE. THERE IS STILL A
SLIGHT CHANCE A COUPLE ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP LATE THIS
EVENING BUT OTHERWISE THINGS SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNTIL THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

AT UPPER LEVELS...LOWER HEIGHTS WILL ADVECT IN ON THURSDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIVES SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
SOME OF THIS FORCING...ALONG WITH SOME ENERGY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY ALLOWING FOR A
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE (20-30 POPS) OF SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING ALLOWING FOR A DRY PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.

FOG IS POSSIBLE BOTH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MORE
FOG POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT IN LOCATIONS THAT MAY SEE SOME
RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S WITH LOWS
BOTH NIGHTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MORE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES CROP UP RIGHT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...
AND BEYOND. A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
OUT AND ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL FLATTEN A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST...EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO HUDSON BAY.
A WEAK AREA OF TROUGHING ALOFT...OR TROUGHINESS STRETCHING FROM THE
MIDWEST...THROUGH THE COMMONWEALTH AND SOUTHEAST TO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WILL LINGER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WITH RESPECT TO SENSIBLE WEATHER...OUR SUMMERTIME LIKE WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS ON AVERAGE. CONSIDERING THE MORE RECENT DRY
CONDITIONS AND H850 TEMPS APPROACHING 20C...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 EACH DAY THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.
IN GENERAL WENT WITH MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS AND LOW TO MID 60S
FOR MINS EACH DAY. POPS WILL GENERALLY DEPEND MORE ON SMALL SCALE
TYPE FEATURES AND DIURNAL HEATING VERSUS SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS...THOUGH
MODELS DO HINT AT SOME TYPE OF BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH OUR AREA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND OR BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONSEQUENTLY OR BEST CHANCE AT ANY RAINFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR POSSIBLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 153 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

ANOTHER TYPICAL EASTERN KENTUCKY NIGHT WITH MORE VALLEY FOG
DEVELOPING AS WE SPEAK. SOME OF THIS FOG WILL IMPACT TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. GIVEN SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO LAST NIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS ABOUT WHERE THEY WERE LAST NIGHT AT THIS
TIME...OPTED TO BRING VISIBILITIES DOWN SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW
LAST NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE A MIX OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES
THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW CIGS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING BY MID MORNING. SOME SCATTERED CU WILL
DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY VFR
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...KAS




000
FXUS63 KJKL 030553
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
153 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 153 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TO OUR NORTHEAST WITH A SLIGHT
DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST. BASED ON TRENDS...NOT EXPECTING THIS
ACTIVITY TO REACH OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT OR EVEN
THROUGH THE MORNING. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST THROUGH
THE UPCOMING MORNING. STARTING TO SEE SOME LIGHT FOG DEVELOPING AT
A FEW LOCATIONS AND THE RIVER VALLEY FOG SHOULD CONTINUE TO FILL
IN AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE NEXT 2 TO 5 HOURS. CURRENT FORECAST HAS
EVERYTHING COVERED WELL...SO ONLY SOME MINOR CHANGES TO FRESHEN UP
THE FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1033 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

FORECAST SEEMS TO BE WELL ON TRACK THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOWED QUICK DIMINISHMENT ACROSS THE CWA OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL HOURS. A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN OHIO
AND SLOWLY MOVED SOUTHWARD TOWARDS OUR CWA...BUT LUCKILY FIZZLED
OUT JUST AS IT GOT TO OUR BORDER...SO NO UPDATES WERE NEEDED TO
ACCOMMODATE THIS ISOLATED CONVECTION. FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT...EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO SHOW A CLEARING TREND ACROSS
THE REGION. A LARGER MASS OF CLOUDS IS STILL LOCATED OVER EASTERN
TN AND MAY CONTINUE TO IMPACT FAR SOUTHEAST KY. IF THIS IS THE
CASE...THIS COULD HELP TO REDUCE SOME OF THE FOG IMPACTS FOR THIS
AREA...BUT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR. TEMPERATURES WILL
START TO QUICKLY DROP OFF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...WITH FOG
STILL EXPECTED TO BEGIN FORMING AT THIS POINT.

MAIN CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE INCLUDED LOADED IN THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS TO MAKE SURE
THE CURRENT CONDITIONS WERE WELL REFLECTED IN THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST. ALL OTHER PARAMETERS INCLUDING POPS...SKY...AND
WEATHER...DID NOT NEED ANY UPDATES AT THIS TIME. GRIDS WERE
PUBLISHED AND SENT TO NDFD AND WEB. A NEW FORECAST PACKAGE HAS
BEEN SENT OUT AS WELL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 557 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

MADE SEVERAL UPDATES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING AND
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. GIVEN THE ONGOING RAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CWA...WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS SO THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOWED UP IN THE
WEATHER GRIDS. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO DIMINISH AFTER 0Z ONCE WE
LOSE SOME OF THE BEST SUN/HEATING. UNTIL THEN...THESE STORMS ARE
SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD SUSTAINABILITY WITH IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOWS
SHOWING UP ON THE RADAR RETURNS...SO EXPECT THEM TO HOLD ON FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS AS THEY DROP SOUTHWARD. POPS WILL LIKELY INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW WITH THE AID OF THE AFTERNOON HEATING...VERY
SIMILAR TO THAT OF TODAY WITH PERHAPS A BIT BETTER COVERAGE. AS
SUCH...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED THE ISL/CHANCE POPS THAT WERE IN THE
FORECAST BETWEEN 10 AND 15Z TOMORROW...SINCE IT IS UNLIKELY THAT
WE WILL SEE ANYTHING BEGIN POPPING UP UNTIL AFTER THIS TIME.

AFTER ADJUSTING THE POPS...WENT AHEAD AND RERAN THE WEATHER GRIDS
TO MAKE SURE THE CHANGES WERE REFLECTED HERE AS WELL. IN
ADDITION...TOOK OUT THE WIDESPREAD AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE
CWA...SINCE /AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS/ MOST
OF THE FOG SHOULD BE CONTAINED TO THE VALLEYS AND CLOSE TO BODIES
OF WATER. KEPT IN THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE FOG...BUT CONFINED IT
TO THESE VALLEY LOCATIONS. THIS MORNING/S VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONFIRMS THIS THINKING...ESPECIALLY SINCE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY
AIRMASS CHANGES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT COMPARED TO THAT OF LAST
NIGHT.

GIVEN OUR TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER IN MANY
LOCATIONS COMPARED TO THAT OF YESTERDAY /THANKS TO THE CONTINUED
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD/...EXPECT
LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TO FOLLOW THE SAME PATTERN...WITH
LOCATIONS GENERALLY EXPERIENCING LOW TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN THAT OF LAST NIGHT. AS SUCH...FELT FORECASTED
OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE TOO LOW IN MOST LOCATIONS...SO WENT AHEAD AND
BUMPED THEM UP ACCORDINGLY. DID TRY TO INCLUDE A BIT OF A RIDGE
VALLEY SPLIT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS. WE MAY HAVE A
BIT MORE CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...AND ALONG WITH NRLY
WINDS...THIS MAY PROHIBIT DAYTIME TEMPS FROM BEING QUITE AS WARM
AS THEY WERE TODAY IN SOME LOCATIONS. THIS WAS WELL REFLECTED IN
TOMORROW/S HIGH TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT
TOMORROW NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL ACCORDINGLY ONCE
AGAIN. ENDED UP UPDATING THE OVERNIGHT LOW FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING TO ADJUST THE TEMP DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES
TO BETTER COORDINATE WITH THIS SLIGHT DROP IN TEMPERATURE.

FINALLY...I RERAN THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE BASED ON
CLIMATOLOGY SINCE THIS WILL LIKELY BEST CAPTURE THE HIGH PRESSURE
DIURNAL PATTERN THAT WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. I ALSO LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS TO MAKE SURE THE
NEAR TERM GRIDS WERE A GOOD REFLECTION OF THE CURRENT CONDITIONS.
ALL GRIDS WERE PUBLISHED AND SENT TO NDFD...AND A NEW ZONE
FORECAST PACKAGE HAS BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SHOWERS TO OUR NORTH HAVE QUICKLY DISSIPATED AS THEY MOVED INTO
OUR AREA DUE TO THE DRY AIR/RIDGING IN PLACE. THERE IS STILL A
SLIGHT CHANCE A COUPLE ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP LATE THIS
EVENING BUT OTHERWISE THINGS SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNTIL THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

AT UPPER LEVELS...LOWER HEIGHTS WILL ADVECT IN ON THURSDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIVES SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
SOME OF THIS FORCING...ALONG WITH SOME ENERGY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY ALLOWING FOR A
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE (20-30 POPS) OF SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING ALLOWING FOR A DRY PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.

FOG IS POSSIBLE BOTH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MORE
FOG POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT IN LOCATIONS THAT MAY SEE SOME
RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S WITH LOWS
BOTH NIGHTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MORE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES CROP UP RIGHT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...
AND BEYOND. A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
OUT AND ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL FLATTEN A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST...EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO HUDSON BAY.
A WEAK AREA OF TROUGHING ALOFT...OR TROUGHINESS STRETCHING FROM THE
MIDWEST...THROUGH THE COMMONWEALTH AND SOUTHEAST TO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WILL LINGER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WITH RESPECT TO SENSIBLE WEATHER...OUR SUMMERTIME LIKE WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS ON AVERAGE. CONSIDERING THE MORE RECENT DRY
CONDITIONS AND H850 TEMPS APPROACHING 20C...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 EACH DAY THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.
IN GENERAL WENT WITH MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS AND LOW TO MID 60S
FOR MINS EACH DAY. POPS WILL GENERALLY DEPEND MORE ON SMALL SCALE
TYPE FEATURES AND DIURNAL HEATING VERSUS SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS...THOUGH
MODELS DO HINT AT SOME TYPE OF BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH OUR AREA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND OR BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONSEQUENTLY OR BEST CHANCE AT ANY RAINFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR POSSIBLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 153 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

ANOTHER TYPICAL EASTERN KENTUCKY NIGHT WITH MORE VALLEY FOG
DEVELOPING AS WE SPEAK. SOME OF THIS FOG WILL IMPACT TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. GIVEN SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO LAST NIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS ABOUT WHERE THEY WERE LAST NIGHT AT THIS
TIME...OPTED TO BRING VISIBILITIES DOWN SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW
LAST NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE A MIX OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES
THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW CIGS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING BY MID MORNING. SOME SCATTERED CU WILL
DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY VFR
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...KAS




000
FXUS63 KJKL 030234
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1034 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1033 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

FORECAST SEEMS TO BE WELL ON TRACK THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOWED QUICK DIMINISHMENT ACROSS THE CWA OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL HOURS. A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN OHIO
AND SLOWLY MOVED SOUTHWARD TOWARDS OUR CWA...BUT LUCKILY FIZZLED
OUT JUST AS IT GOT TO OUR BORDER...SO NO UPDATES WERE NEEDED TO
ACCOMMODATE THIS ISOLATED CONVECTION. FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT...EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO SHOW A CLEARING TREND ACROSS
THE REGION. A LARGER MASS OF CLOUDS IS STILL LOCATED OVER EASTERN
TN AND MAY CONTINUE TO IMPACT FAR SOUTHEAST KY. IF THIS IS THE
CASE...THIS COULD HELP TO REDUCE SOME OF THE FOG IMPACTS FOR THIS
AREA...BUT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR. TEMPERATURES WILL
START TO QUICKLY DROP OFF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...WITH FOG
STILL EXPECTED TO BEGIN FORMING AT THIS POINT.

MAIN CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE INCLUDED LOADED IN THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS TO MAKE SURE
THE CURRENT CONDITIONS WERE WELL REFLECTED IN THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST. ALL OTHER PARAMETERS INCLUDING POPS...SKY...AND
WEATHER...DID NOT NEED ANY UPDATES AT THIS TIME. GRIDS WERE
PUBLISHED AND SENT TO NDFD AND WEB. A NEW FORECAST PACKAGE HAS
BEEN SENT OUT AS WELL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 557 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

MADE SEVERAL UPDATES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING AND
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. GIVEN THE ONGOING RAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CWA...WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS SO THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOWED UP IN THE
WEATHER GRIDS. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO DIMINISH AFTER 0Z ONCE WE
LOSE SOME OF THE BEST SUN/HEATING. UNTIL THEN...THESE STORMS ARE
SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD SUSTAINABILITY WITH IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOWS
SHOWING UP ON THE RADAR RETURNS...SO EXPECT THEM TO HOLD ON FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS AS THEY DROP SOUTHWARD. POPS WILL LIKELY INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW WITH THE AID OF THE AFTERNOON HEATING...VERY
SIMILAR TO THAT OF TODAY WITH PERHAPS A BIT BETTER COVERAGE. AS
SUCH...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED THE ISL/CHANCE POPS THAT WERE IN THE
FORECAST BETWEEN 10 AND 15Z TOMORROW...SINCE IT IS UNLIKELY THAT
WE WILL SEE ANYTHING BEGIN POPPING UP UNTIL AFTER THIS TIME.

AFTER ADJUSTING THE POPS...WENT AHEAD AND RERAN THE WEATHER GRIDS
TO MAKE SURE THE CHANGES WERE REFLECTED HERE AS WELL. IN
ADDITION...TOOK OUT THE WIDESPREAD AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE
CWA...SINCE /AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS/ MOST
OF THE FOG SHOULD BE CONTAINED TO THE VALLEYS AND CLOSE TO BODIES
OF WATER. KEPT IN THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE FOG...BUT CONFINED IT
TO THESE VALLEY LOCATIONS. THIS MORNING/S VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONFIRMS THIS THINKING...ESPECIALLY SINCE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY
AIRMASS CHANGES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT COMPARED TO THAT OF LAST
NIGHT.

GIVEN OUR TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER IN MANY
LOCATIONS COMPARED TO THAT OF YESTERDAY /THANKS TO THE CONTINUED
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD/...EXPECT
LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TO FOLLOW THE SAME PATTERN...WITH
LOCATIONS GENERALLY EXPERIENCING LOW TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN THAT OF LAST NIGHT. AS SUCH...FELT FORECASTED
OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE TOO LOW IN MOST LOCATIONS...SO WENT AHEAD AND
BUMPED THEM UP ACCORDINGLY. DID TRY TO INCLUDE A BIT OF A RIDGE
VALLEY SPLIT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS. WE MAY HAVE A
BIT MORE CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...AND ALONG WITH NRLY
WINDS...THIS MAY PROHIBIT DAYTIME TEMPS FROM BEING QUITE AS WARM
AS THEY WERE TODAY IN SOME LOCATIONS. THIS WAS WELL REFLECTED IN
TOMORROW/S HIGH TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT
TOMORROW NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL ACCORDINGLY ONCE
AGAIN. ENDED UP UPDATING THE OVERNIGHT LOW FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING TO ADJUST THE TEMP DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES
TO BETTER COORDINATE WITH THIS SLIGHT DROP IN TEMPERATURE.

FINALLY...I RERAN THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE BASED ON
CLIMATOLOGY SINCE THIS WILL LIKELY BEST CAPTURE THE HIGH PRESSURE
DIURNAL PATTERN THAT WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. I ALSO LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS TO MAKE SURE THE
NEAR TERM GRIDS WERE A GOOD REFLECTION OF THE CURRENT CONDITIONS.
ALL GRIDS WERE PUBLISHED AND SENT TO NDFD...AND A NEW ZONE
FORECAST PACKAGE HAS BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SHOWERS TO OUR NORTH HAVE QUICKLY DISSIPATED AS THEY MOVED INTO
OUR AREA DUE TO THE DRY AIR/RIDGING IN PLACE. THERE IS STILL A
SLIGHT CHANCE A COUPLE ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP LATE THIS
EVENING BUT OTHERWISE THINGS SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNTIL THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

AT UPPER LEVELS...LOWER HEIGHTS WILL ADVECT IN ON THURSDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIVES SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
SOME OF THIS FORCING...ALONG WITH SOME ENERGY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY ALLOWING FOR A
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE (20-30 POPS) OF SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING ALLOWING FOR A DRY PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.

FOG IS POSSIBLE BOTH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MORE
FOG POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT IN LOCATIONS THAT MAY SEE SOME
RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S WITH LOWS
BOTH NIGHTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MORE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES CROP UP RIGHT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...
AND BEYOND. A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
OUT AND ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL FLATTEN A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST...EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO HUDSON BAY.
A WEAK AREA OF TROUGHING ALOFT...OR TROUGHINESS STRETCHING FROM THE
MIDWEST...THROUGH THE COMMONWEALTH AND SOUTHEAST TO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WILL LINGER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WITH RESPECT TO SENSIBLE WEATHER...OUR SUMMERTIME LIKE WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS ON AVERAGE. CONSIDERING THE MORE RECENT DRY
CONDITIONS AND H850 TEMPS APPROACHING 20C...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 EACH DAY THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.
IN GENERAL WENT WITH MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS AND LOW TO MID 60S
FOR MINS EACH DAY. POPS WILL GENERALLY DEPEND MORE ON SMALL SCALE
TYPE FEATURES AND DIURNAL HEATING VERSUS SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS...THOUGH
MODELS DO HINT AT SOME TYPE OF BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH OUR AREA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND OR BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONSEQUENTLY OR BEST CHANCE AT ANY RAINFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR POSSIBLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 823 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

CONDITIONS LOOK SIMILAR TO THAT OF YESTERDAY...WITH A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVERHEAD...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS
DIMINISHING...AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THE ONLY
DIFFERENCE IS THE FACT THAT THERE WERE A FEW MORE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THIS AFTERNOON EVENING...THOUGH NONE
OF THESE DIRECTLY AFFECTED A TAF SITE. AS SUCH...EXPECT A SIMILAR
FORECAST TO THAT OF LAST NIGHT AS WELL. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. FOG WILL THEN LIKELY
SET UP ACROSS THE VALLEYS...AND MAY LIFT INTO THE TAF SITES LATE
IN THE NIGHT AND NEAR DAWN. MVFR VIS CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT
ALL TAF SITES...BUT AS THE FOG LIFTS SOME SITES COULD EASILY DROP
TO LIFR VIS FOR PERIODS OF TIME CLOSER TO DAWN. ONCE THE FOG
BURNS OFF TOMORROW MORNING...EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF DIURNALLY
DRIVEN VFR CLOUDS AND ISL/SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS
TIME...ONLY INCLUDED MENTION OF VCTS AT THE SITES WITH POPS ABOVE


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...JMW




000
FXUS63 KJKL 030234
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1034 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1033 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

FORECAST SEEMS TO BE WELL ON TRACK THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOWED QUICK DIMINISHMENT ACROSS THE CWA OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL HOURS. A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN OHIO
AND SLOWLY MOVED SOUTHWARD TOWARDS OUR CWA...BUT LUCKILY FIZZLED
OUT JUST AS IT GOT TO OUR BORDER...SO NO UPDATES WERE NEEDED TO
ACCOMMODATE THIS ISOLATED CONVECTION. FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT...EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO SHOW A CLEARING TREND ACROSS
THE REGION. A LARGER MASS OF CLOUDS IS STILL LOCATED OVER EASTERN
TN AND MAY CONTINUE TO IMPACT FAR SOUTHEAST KY. IF THIS IS THE
CASE...THIS COULD HELP TO REDUCE SOME OF THE FOG IMPACTS FOR THIS
AREA...BUT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR. TEMPERATURES WILL
START TO QUICKLY DROP OFF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...WITH FOG
STILL EXPECTED TO BEGIN FORMING AT THIS POINT.

MAIN CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE INCLUDED LOADED IN THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS TO MAKE SURE
THE CURRENT CONDITIONS WERE WELL REFLECTED IN THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST. ALL OTHER PARAMETERS INCLUDING POPS...SKY...AND
WEATHER...DID NOT NEED ANY UPDATES AT THIS TIME. GRIDS WERE
PUBLISHED AND SENT TO NDFD AND WEB. A NEW FORECAST PACKAGE HAS
BEEN SENT OUT AS WELL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 557 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

MADE SEVERAL UPDATES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING AND
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. GIVEN THE ONGOING RAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CWA...WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS SO THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOWED UP IN THE
WEATHER GRIDS. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO DIMINISH AFTER 0Z ONCE WE
LOSE SOME OF THE BEST SUN/HEATING. UNTIL THEN...THESE STORMS ARE
SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD SUSTAINABILITY WITH IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOWS
SHOWING UP ON THE RADAR RETURNS...SO EXPECT THEM TO HOLD ON FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS AS THEY DROP SOUTHWARD. POPS WILL LIKELY INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW WITH THE AID OF THE AFTERNOON HEATING...VERY
SIMILAR TO THAT OF TODAY WITH PERHAPS A BIT BETTER COVERAGE. AS
SUCH...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED THE ISL/CHANCE POPS THAT WERE IN THE
FORECAST BETWEEN 10 AND 15Z TOMORROW...SINCE IT IS UNLIKELY THAT
WE WILL SEE ANYTHING BEGIN POPPING UP UNTIL AFTER THIS TIME.

AFTER ADJUSTING THE POPS...WENT AHEAD AND RERAN THE WEATHER GRIDS
TO MAKE SURE THE CHANGES WERE REFLECTED HERE AS WELL. IN
ADDITION...TOOK OUT THE WIDESPREAD AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE
CWA...SINCE /AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS/ MOST
OF THE FOG SHOULD BE CONTAINED TO THE VALLEYS AND CLOSE TO BODIES
OF WATER. KEPT IN THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE FOG...BUT CONFINED IT
TO THESE VALLEY LOCATIONS. THIS MORNING/S VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONFIRMS THIS THINKING...ESPECIALLY SINCE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY
AIRMASS CHANGES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT COMPARED TO THAT OF LAST
NIGHT.

GIVEN OUR TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER IN MANY
LOCATIONS COMPARED TO THAT OF YESTERDAY /THANKS TO THE CONTINUED
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD/...EXPECT
LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TO FOLLOW THE SAME PATTERN...WITH
LOCATIONS GENERALLY EXPERIENCING LOW TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN THAT OF LAST NIGHT. AS SUCH...FELT FORECASTED
OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE TOO LOW IN MOST LOCATIONS...SO WENT AHEAD AND
BUMPED THEM UP ACCORDINGLY. DID TRY TO INCLUDE A BIT OF A RIDGE
VALLEY SPLIT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS. WE MAY HAVE A
BIT MORE CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...AND ALONG WITH NRLY
WINDS...THIS MAY PROHIBIT DAYTIME TEMPS FROM BEING QUITE AS WARM
AS THEY WERE TODAY IN SOME LOCATIONS. THIS WAS WELL REFLECTED IN
TOMORROW/S HIGH TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT
TOMORROW NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL ACCORDINGLY ONCE
AGAIN. ENDED UP UPDATING THE OVERNIGHT LOW FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING TO ADJUST THE TEMP DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES
TO BETTER COORDINATE WITH THIS SLIGHT DROP IN TEMPERATURE.

FINALLY...I RERAN THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE BASED ON
CLIMATOLOGY SINCE THIS WILL LIKELY BEST CAPTURE THE HIGH PRESSURE
DIURNAL PATTERN THAT WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. I ALSO LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS TO MAKE SURE THE
NEAR TERM GRIDS WERE A GOOD REFLECTION OF THE CURRENT CONDITIONS.
ALL GRIDS WERE PUBLISHED AND SENT TO NDFD...AND A NEW ZONE
FORECAST PACKAGE HAS BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SHOWERS TO OUR NORTH HAVE QUICKLY DISSIPATED AS THEY MOVED INTO
OUR AREA DUE TO THE DRY AIR/RIDGING IN PLACE. THERE IS STILL A
SLIGHT CHANCE A COUPLE ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP LATE THIS
EVENING BUT OTHERWISE THINGS SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNTIL THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

AT UPPER LEVELS...LOWER HEIGHTS WILL ADVECT IN ON THURSDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIVES SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
SOME OF THIS FORCING...ALONG WITH SOME ENERGY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY ALLOWING FOR A
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE (20-30 POPS) OF SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING ALLOWING FOR A DRY PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.

FOG IS POSSIBLE BOTH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MORE
FOG POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT IN LOCATIONS THAT MAY SEE SOME
RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S WITH LOWS
BOTH NIGHTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MORE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES CROP UP RIGHT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...
AND BEYOND. A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
OUT AND ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL FLATTEN A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST...EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO HUDSON BAY.
A WEAK AREA OF TROUGHING ALOFT...OR TROUGHINESS STRETCHING FROM THE
MIDWEST...THROUGH THE COMMONWEALTH AND SOUTHEAST TO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WILL LINGER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WITH RESPECT TO SENSIBLE WEATHER...OUR SUMMERTIME LIKE WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS ON AVERAGE. CONSIDERING THE MORE RECENT DRY
CONDITIONS AND H850 TEMPS APPROACHING 20C...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 EACH DAY THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.
IN GENERAL WENT WITH MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS AND LOW TO MID 60S
FOR MINS EACH DAY. POPS WILL GENERALLY DEPEND MORE ON SMALL SCALE
TYPE FEATURES AND DIURNAL HEATING VERSUS SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS...THOUGH
MODELS DO HINT AT SOME TYPE OF BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH OUR AREA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND OR BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONSEQUENTLY OR BEST CHANCE AT ANY RAINFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR POSSIBLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 823 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

CONDITIONS LOOK SIMILAR TO THAT OF YESTERDAY...WITH A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVERHEAD...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS
DIMINISHING...AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THE ONLY
DIFFERENCE IS THE FACT THAT THERE WERE A FEW MORE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THIS AFTERNOON EVENING...THOUGH NONE
OF THESE DIRECTLY AFFECTED A TAF SITE. AS SUCH...EXPECT A SIMILAR
FORECAST TO THAT OF LAST NIGHT AS WELL. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. FOG WILL THEN LIKELY
SET UP ACROSS THE VALLEYS...AND MAY LIFT INTO THE TAF SITES LATE
IN THE NIGHT AND NEAR DAWN. MVFR VIS CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT
ALL TAF SITES...BUT AS THE FOG LIFTS SOME SITES COULD EASILY DROP
TO LIFR VIS FOR PERIODS OF TIME CLOSER TO DAWN. ONCE THE FOG
BURNS OFF TOMORROW MORNING...EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF DIURNALLY
DRIVEN VFR CLOUDS AND ISL/SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS
TIME...ONLY INCLUDED MENTION OF VCTS AT THE SITES WITH POPS ABOVE


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...JMW





000
FXUS63 KJKL 030031
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
831 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 557 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

MADE SEVERAL UPDATES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING AND
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. GIVEN THE ONGOING RAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CWA...WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS SO THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOWED UP IN THE
WEATHER GRIDS. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO DIMINISH AFTER 0Z ONCE WE
LOSE SOME OF THE BEST SUN/HEATING. UNTIL THEN...THESE STORMS ARE
SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD SUSTAINABILITY WITH IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOWS
SHOWING UP ON THE RADAR RETURNS...SO EXPECT THEM TO HOLD ON FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS AS THEY DROP SOUTHWARD. POPS WILL LIKELY INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW WITH THE AID OF THE AFTERNOON HEATING...VERY
SIMILAR TO THAT OF TODAY WITH PERHAPS A BIT BETTER COVERAGE. AS
SUCH...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED THE ISL/CHANCE POPS THAT WERE IN THE
FORECAST BETWEEN 10 AND 15Z TOMORROW...SINCE IT IS UNLIKELY THAT
WE WILL SEE ANYTHING BEGIN POPPING UP UNTIL AFTER THIS TIME.

AFTER ADJUSTING THE POPS...WENT AHEAD AND RERAN THE WEATHER GRIDS
TO MAKE SURE THE CHANGES WERE REFLECTED HERE AS WELL. IN
ADDITION...TOOK OUT THE WIDESPREAD AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE
CWA...SINCE /AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS/ MOST
OF THE FOG SHOULD BE CONTAINED TO THE VALLEYS AND CLOSE TO BODIES
OF WATER. KEPT IN THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE FOG...BUT CONFINED IT
TO THESE VALLEY LOCATIONS. THIS MORNING/S VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONFIRMS THIS THINKING...ESPECIALLY SINCE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY
AIRMASS CHANGES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT COMPARED TO THAT OF LAST
NIGHT.

GIVEN OUR TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER IN MANY
LOCATIONS COMPARED TO THAT OF YESTERDAY /THANKS TO THE CONTINUED
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD/...EXPECT
LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TO FOLLOW THE SAME PATTERN...WITH
LOCATIONS GENERALLY EXPERIENCING LOW TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN THAT OF LAST NIGHT. AS SUCH...FELT FORECASTED
OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE TOO LOW IN MOST LOCATIONS...SO WENT AHEAD AND
BUMPED THEM UP ACCORDINGLY. DID TRY TO INCLUDE A BIT OF A RIDGE
VALLEY SPLIT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS. WE MAY HAVE A
BIT MORE CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...AND ALONG WITH NRLY
WINDS...THIS MAY PROHIBIT DAYTIME TEMPS FROM BEING QUITE AS WARM
AS THEY WERE TODAY IN SOME LOCATIONS. THIS WAS WELL REFLECTED IN
TOMORROW/S HIGH TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT
TOMORROW NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL ACCORDINGLY ONCE
AGAIN. ENDED UP UPDATING THE OVERNIGHT LOW FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING TO ADJUST THE TEMP DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES
TO BETTER COORDINATE WITH THIS SLIGHT DROP IN TEMPERATURE.

FINALLY...I RERAN THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE BASED ON
CLIMATOLOGY SINCE THIS WILL LIKELY BEST CAPTURE THE HIGH PRESSURE
DIURNAL PATTERN THAT WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. I ALSO LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS TO MAKE SURE THE
NEAR TERM GRIDS WERE A GOOD REFLECTION OF THE CURRENT CONDITIONS.
ALL GRIDS WERE PUBLISHED AND SENT TO NDFD...AND A NEW ZONE
FORECAST PACKAGE HAS BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SHOWERS TO OUR NORTH HAVE QUICKLY DISSIPATED AS THEY MOVED INTO
OUR AREA DUE TO THE DRY AIR/RIDGING IN PLACE. THERE IS STILL A
SLIGHT CHANCE A COUPLE ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP LATE THIS
EVENING BUT OTHERWISE THINGS SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNTIL THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

AT UPPER LEVELS...LOWER HEIGHTS WILL ADVECT IN ON THURSDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIVES SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
SOME OF THIS FORCING...ALONG WITH SOME ENERGY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY ALLOWING FOR A
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE (20-30 POPS) OF SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING ALLOWING FOR A DRY PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.

FOG IS POSSIBLE BOTH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MORE
FOG POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT IN LOCATIONS THAT MAY SEE SOME
RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S WITH LOWS
BOTH NIGHTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MORE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES CROP UP RIGHT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...
AND BEYOND. A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
OUT AND ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL FLATTEN A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST...EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO HUDSON BAY.
A WEAK AREA OF TROUGHING ALOFT...OR TROUGHINESS STRETCHING FROM THE
MIDWEST...THROUGH THE COMMONWEALTH AND SOUTHEAST TO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WILL LINGER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WITH RESPECT TO SENSIBLE WEATHER...OUR SUMMERTIME LIKE WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS ON AVERAGE. CONSIDERING THE MORE RECENT DRY
CONDITIONS AND H850 TEMPS APPROACHING 20C...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 EACH DAY THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.
IN GENERAL WENT WITH MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS AND LOW TO MID 60S
FOR MINS EACH DAY. POPS WILL GENERALLY DEPEND MORE ON SMALL SCALE
TYPE FEATURES AND DIURNAL HEATING VERSUS SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS...THOUGH
MODELS DO HINT AT SOME TYPE OF BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH OUR AREA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND OR BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONSEQUENTLY OR BEST CHANCE AT ANY RAINFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR POSSIBLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 823 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

CONDITIONS LOOK SIMILAR TO THAT OF YESTERDAY...WITH A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVERHEAD...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS
DIMINISHING...AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THE ONLY
DIFFERENCE IS THE FACT THAT THERE WERE A FEW MORE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THIS AFTERNOON EVENING...THOUGH NONE
OF THESE DIRECTLY AFFECTED A TAF SITE. AS SUCH...EXPECT A SIMILAR
FORECAST TO THAT OF LAST NIGHT AS WELL. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. FOG WILL THEN LIKELY
SET UP ACROSS THE VALLEYS...AND MAY LIFT INTO THE TAF SITES LATE
IN THE NIGHT AND NEAR DAWN. MVFR VIS CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT
ALL TAF SITES...BUT AS THE FOG LIFTS SOME SITES COULD EASILY DROP
TO LIFR VIS FOR PERIODS OF TIME CLOSER TO DAWN. ONCE THE FOG
BURNS OFF TOMORROW MORNING...EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF DIURNALLY
DRIVEN VFR CLOUDS AND ISL/SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS
TIME...ONLY INCLUDED MENTION OF VCTS AT THE SITES WITH POPS ABOVE
25 PERCENT. KSME AND KLOZ WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY.
&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...JMW




000
FXUS63 KJKL 030031
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
831 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 557 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

MADE SEVERAL UPDATES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING AND
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. GIVEN THE ONGOING RAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CWA...WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS SO THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOWED UP IN THE
WEATHER GRIDS. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO DIMINISH AFTER 0Z ONCE WE
LOSE SOME OF THE BEST SUN/HEATING. UNTIL THEN...THESE STORMS ARE
SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD SUSTAINABILITY WITH IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOWS
SHOWING UP ON THE RADAR RETURNS...SO EXPECT THEM TO HOLD ON FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS AS THEY DROP SOUTHWARD. POPS WILL LIKELY INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW WITH THE AID OF THE AFTERNOON HEATING...VERY
SIMILAR TO THAT OF TODAY WITH PERHAPS A BIT BETTER COVERAGE. AS
SUCH...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED THE ISL/CHANCE POPS THAT WERE IN THE
FORECAST BETWEEN 10 AND 15Z TOMORROW...SINCE IT IS UNLIKELY THAT
WE WILL SEE ANYTHING BEGIN POPPING UP UNTIL AFTER THIS TIME.

AFTER ADJUSTING THE POPS...WENT AHEAD AND RERAN THE WEATHER GRIDS
TO MAKE SURE THE CHANGES WERE REFLECTED HERE AS WELL. IN
ADDITION...TOOK OUT THE WIDESPREAD AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE
CWA...SINCE /AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS/ MOST
OF THE FOG SHOULD BE CONTAINED TO THE VALLEYS AND CLOSE TO BODIES
OF WATER. KEPT IN THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE FOG...BUT CONFINED IT
TO THESE VALLEY LOCATIONS. THIS MORNING/S VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONFIRMS THIS THINKING...ESPECIALLY SINCE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY
AIRMASS CHANGES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT COMPARED TO THAT OF LAST
NIGHT.

GIVEN OUR TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER IN MANY
LOCATIONS COMPARED TO THAT OF YESTERDAY /THANKS TO THE CONTINUED
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD/...EXPECT
LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TO FOLLOW THE SAME PATTERN...WITH
LOCATIONS GENERALLY EXPERIENCING LOW TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN THAT OF LAST NIGHT. AS SUCH...FELT FORECASTED
OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE TOO LOW IN MOST LOCATIONS...SO WENT AHEAD AND
BUMPED THEM UP ACCORDINGLY. DID TRY TO INCLUDE A BIT OF A RIDGE
VALLEY SPLIT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS. WE MAY HAVE A
BIT MORE CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...AND ALONG WITH NRLY
WINDS...THIS MAY PROHIBIT DAYTIME TEMPS FROM BEING QUITE AS WARM
AS THEY WERE TODAY IN SOME LOCATIONS. THIS WAS WELL REFLECTED IN
TOMORROW/S HIGH TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT
TOMORROW NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL ACCORDINGLY ONCE
AGAIN. ENDED UP UPDATING THE OVERNIGHT LOW FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING TO ADJUST THE TEMP DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES
TO BETTER COORDINATE WITH THIS SLIGHT DROP IN TEMPERATURE.

FINALLY...I RERAN THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE BASED ON
CLIMATOLOGY SINCE THIS WILL LIKELY BEST CAPTURE THE HIGH PRESSURE
DIURNAL PATTERN THAT WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. I ALSO LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS TO MAKE SURE THE
NEAR TERM GRIDS WERE A GOOD REFLECTION OF THE CURRENT CONDITIONS.
ALL GRIDS WERE PUBLISHED AND SENT TO NDFD...AND A NEW ZONE
FORECAST PACKAGE HAS BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SHOWERS TO OUR NORTH HAVE QUICKLY DISSIPATED AS THEY MOVED INTO
OUR AREA DUE TO THE DRY AIR/RIDGING IN PLACE. THERE IS STILL A
SLIGHT CHANCE A COUPLE ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP LATE THIS
EVENING BUT OTHERWISE THINGS SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNTIL THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

AT UPPER LEVELS...LOWER HEIGHTS WILL ADVECT IN ON THURSDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIVES SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
SOME OF THIS FORCING...ALONG WITH SOME ENERGY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY ALLOWING FOR A
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE (20-30 POPS) OF SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING ALLOWING FOR A DRY PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.

FOG IS POSSIBLE BOTH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MORE
FOG POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT IN LOCATIONS THAT MAY SEE SOME
RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S WITH LOWS
BOTH NIGHTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MORE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES CROP UP RIGHT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...
AND BEYOND. A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
OUT AND ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL FLATTEN A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST...EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO HUDSON BAY.
A WEAK AREA OF TROUGHING ALOFT...OR TROUGHINESS STRETCHING FROM THE
MIDWEST...THROUGH THE COMMONWEALTH AND SOUTHEAST TO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WILL LINGER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WITH RESPECT TO SENSIBLE WEATHER...OUR SUMMERTIME LIKE WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS ON AVERAGE. CONSIDERING THE MORE RECENT DRY
CONDITIONS AND H850 TEMPS APPROACHING 20C...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 EACH DAY THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.
IN GENERAL WENT WITH MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS AND LOW TO MID 60S
FOR MINS EACH DAY. POPS WILL GENERALLY DEPEND MORE ON SMALL SCALE
TYPE FEATURES AND DIURNAL HEATING VERSUS SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS...THOUGH
MODELS DO HINT AT SOME TYPE OF BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH OUR AREA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND OR BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONSEQUENTLY OR BEST CHANCE AT ANY RAINFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR POSSIBLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 823 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

CONDITIONS LOOK SIMILAR TO THAT OF YESTERDAY...WITH A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVERHEAD...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS
DIMINISHING...AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THE ONLY
DIFFERENCE IS THE FACT THAT THERE WERE A FEW MORE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THIS AFTERNOON EVENING...THOUGH NONE
OF THESE DIRECTLY AFFECTED A TAF SITE. AS SUCH...EXPECT A SIMILAR
FORECAST TO THAT OF LAST NIGHT AS WELL. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. FOG WILL THEN LIKELY
SET UP ACROSS THE VALLEYS...AND MAY LIFT INTO THE TAF SITES LATE
IN THE NIGHT AND NEAR DAWN. MVFR VIS CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT
ALL TAF SITES...BUT AS THE FOG LIFTS SOME SITES COULD EASILY DROP
TO LIFR VIS FOR PERIODS OF TIME CLOSER TO DAWN. ONCE THE FOG
BURNS OFF TOMORROW MORNING...EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF DIURNALLY
DRIVEN VFR CLOUDS AND ISL/SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS
TIME...ONLY INCLUDED MENTION OF VCTS AT THE SITES WITH POPS ABOVE
25 PERCENT. KSME AND KLOZ WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY.
&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...JMW





000
FXUS63 KJKL 030031
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
831 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 557 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

MADE SEVERAL UPDATES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING AND
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. GIVEN THE ONGOING RAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CWA...WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS SO THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOWED UP IN THE
WEATHER GRIDS. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO DIMINISH AFTER 0Z ONCE WE
LOSE SOME OF THE BEST SUN/HEATING. UNTIL THEN...THESE STORMS ARE
SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD SUSTAINABILITY WITH IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOWS
SHOWING UP ON THE RADAR RETURNS...SO EXPECT THEM TO HOLD ON FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS AS THEY DROP SOUTHWARD. POPS WILL LIKELY INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW WITH THE AID OF THE AFTERNOON HEATING...VERY
SIMILAR TO THAT OF TODAY WITH PERHAPS A BIT BETTER COVERAGE. AS
SUCH...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED THE ISL/CHANCE POPS THAT WERE IN THE
FORECAST BETWEEN 10 AND 15Z TOMORROW...SINCE IT IS UNLIKELY THAT
WE WILL SEE ANYTHING BEGIN POPPING UP UNTIL AFTER THIS TIME.

AFTER ADJUSTING THE POPS...WENT AHEAD AND RERAN THE WEATHER GRIDS
TO MAKE SURE THE CHANGES WERE REFLECTED HERE AS WELL. IN
ADDITION...TOOK OUT THE WIDESPREAD AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE
CWA...SINCE /AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS/ MOST
OF THE FOG SHOULD BE CONTAINED TO THE VALLEYS AND CLOSE TO BODIES
OF WATER. KEPT IN THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE FOG...BUT CONFINED IT
TO THESE VALLEY LOCATIONS. THIS MORNING/S VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONFIRMS THIS THINKING...ESPECIALLY SINCE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY
AIRMASS CHANGES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT COMPARED TO THAT OF LAST
NIGHT.

GIVEN OUR TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER IN MANY
LOCATIONS COMPARED TO THAT OF YESTERDAY /THANKS TO THE CONTINUED
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD/...EXPECT
LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TO FOLLOW THE SAME PATTERN...WITH
LOCATIONS GENERALLY EXPERIENCING LOW TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN THAT OF LAST NIGHT. AS SUCH...FELT FORECASTED
OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE TOO LOW IN MOST LOCATIONS...SO WENT AHEAD AND
BUMPED THEM UP ACCORDINGLY. DID TRY TO INCLUDE A BIT OF A RIDGE
VALLEY SPLIT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS. WE MAY HAVE A
BIT MORE CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...AND ALONG WITH NRLY
WINDS...THIS MAY PROHIBIT DAYTIME TEMPS FROM BEING QUITE AS WARM
AS THEY WERE TODAY IN SOME LOCATIONS. THIS WAS WELL REFLECTED IN
TOMORROW/S HIGH TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT
TOMORROW NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL ACCORDINGLY ONCE
AGAIN. ENDED UP UPDATING THE OVERNIGHT LOW FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING TO ADJUST THE TEMP DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES
TO BETTER COORDINATE WITH THIS SLIGHT DROP IN TEMPERATURE.

FINALLY...I RERAN THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE BASED ON
CLIMATOLOGY SINCE THIS WILL LIKELY BEST CAPTURE THE HIGH PRESSURE
DIURNAL PATTERN THAT WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. I ALSO LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS TO MAKE SURE THE
NEAR TERM GRIDS WERE A GOOD REFLECTION OF THE CURRENT CONDITIONS.
ALL GRIDS WERE PUBLISHED AND SENT TO NDFD...AND A NEW ZONE
FORECAST PACKAGE HAS BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SHOWERS TO OUR NORTH HAVE QUICKLY DISSIPATED AS THEY MOVED INTO
OUR AREA DUE TO THE DRY AIR/RIDGING IN PLACE. THERE IS STILL A
SLIGHT CHANCE A COUPLE ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP LATE THIS
EVENING BUT OTHERWISE THINGS SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNTIL THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

AT UPPER LEVELS...LOWER HEIGHTS WILL ADVECT IN ON THURSDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIVES SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
SOME OF THIS FORCING...ALONG WITH SOME ENERGY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY ALLOWING FOR A
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE (20-30 POPS) OF SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING ALLOWING FOR A DRY PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.

FOG IS POSSIBLE BOTH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MORE
FOG POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT IN LOCATIONS THAT MAY SEE SOME
RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S WITH LOWS
BOTH NIGHTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MORE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES CROP UP RIGHT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...
AND BEYOND. A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
OUT AND ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL FLATTEN A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST...EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO HUDSON BAY.
A WEAK AREA OF TROUGHING ALOFT...OR TROUGHINESS STRETCHING FROM THE
MIDWEST...THROUGH THE COMMONWEALTH AND SOUTHEAST TO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WILL LINGER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WITH RESPECT TO SENSIBLE WEATHER...OUR SUMMERTIME LIKE WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS ON AVERAGE. CONSIDERING THE MORE RECENT DRY
CONDITIONS AND H850 TEMPS APPROACHING 20C...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 EACH DAY THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.
IN GENERAL WENT WITH MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS AND LOW TO MID 60S
FOR MINS EACH DAY. POPS WILL GENERALLY DEPEND MORE ON SMALL SCALE
TYPE FEATURES AND DIURNAL HEATING VERSUS SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS...THOUGH
MODELS DO HINT AT SOME TYPE OF BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH OUR AREA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND OR BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONSEQUENTLY OR BEST CHANCE AT ANY RAINFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR POSSIBLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 823 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

CONDITIONS LOOK SIMILAR TO THAT OF YESTERDAY...WITH A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVERHEAD...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS
DIMINISHING...AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THE ONLY
DIFFERENCE IS THE FACT THAT THERE WERE A FEW MORE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THIS AFTERNOON EVENING...THOUGH NONE
OF THESE DIRECTLY AFFECTED A TAF SITE. AS SUCH...EXPECT A SIMILAR
FORECAST TO THAT OF LAST NIGHT AS WELL. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. FOG WILL THEN LIKELY
SET UP ACROSS THE VALLEYS...AND MAY LIFT INTO THE TAF SITES LATE
IN THE NIGHT AND NEAR DAWN. MVFR VIS CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT
ALL TAF SITES...BUT AS THE FOG LIFTS SOME SITES COULD EASILY DROP
TO LIFR VIS FOR PERIODS OF TIME CLOSER TO DAWN. ONCE THE FOG
BURNS OFF TOMORROW MORNING...EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF DIURNALLY
DRIVEN VFR CLOUDS AND ISL/SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS
TIME...ONLY INCLUDED MENTION OF VCTS AT THE SITES WITH POPS ABOVE
25 PERCENT. KSME AND KLOZ WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY.
&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...JMW




000
FXUS63 KJKL 030031
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
831 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 557 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

MADE SEVERAL UPDATES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING AND
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. GIVEN THE ONGOING RAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CWA...WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS SO THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOWED UP IN THE
WEATHER GRIDS. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO DIMINISH AFTER 0Z ONCE WE
LOSE SOME OF THE BEST SUN/HEATING. UNTIL THEN...THESE STORMS ARE
SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD SUSTAINABILITY WITH IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOWS
SHOWING UP ON THE RADAR RETURNS...SO EXPECT THEM TO HOLD ON FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS AS THEY DROP SOUTHWARD. POPS WILL LIKELY INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW WITH THE AID OF THE AFTERNOON HEATING...VERY
SIMILAR TO THAT OF TODAY WITH PERHAPS A BIT BETTER COVERAGE. AS
SUCH...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED THE ISL/CHANCE POPS THAT WERE IN THE
FORECAST BETWEEN 10 AND 15Z TOMORROW...SINCE IT IS UNLIKELY THAT
WE WILL SEE ANYTHING BEGIN POPPING UP UNTIL AFTER THIS TIME.

AFTER ADJUSTING THE POPS...WENT AHEAD AND RERAN THE WEATHER GRIDS
TO MAKE SURE THE CHANGES WERE REFLECTED HERE AS WELL. IN
ADDITION...TOOK OUT THE WIDESPREAD AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE
CWA...SINCE /AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS/ MOST
OF THE FOG SHOULD BE CONTAINED TO THE VALLEYS AND CLOSE TO BODIES
OF WATER. KEPT IN THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE FOG...BUT CONFINED IT
TO THESE VALLEY LOCATIONS. THIS MORNING/S VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONFIRMS THIS THINKING...ESPECIALLY SINCE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY
AIRMASS CHANGES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT COMPARED TO THAT OF LAST
NIGHT.

GIVEN OUR TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER IN MANY
LOCATIONS COMPARED TO THAT OF YESTERDAY /THANKS TO THE CONTINUED
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD/...EXPECT
LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TO FOLLOW THE SAME PATTERN...WITH
LOCATIONS GENERALLY EXPERIENCING LOW TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN THAT OF LAST NIGHT. AS SUCH...FELT FORECASTED
OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE TOO LOW IN MOST LOCATIONS...SO WENT AHEAD AND
BUMPED THEM UP ACCORDINGLY. DID TRY TO INCLUDE A BIT OF A RIDGE
VALLEY SPLIT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS. WE MAY HAVE A
BIT MORE CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...AND ALONG WITH NRLY
WINDS...THIS MAY PROHIBIT DAYTIME TEMPS FROM BEING QUITE AS WARM
AS THEY WERE TODAY IN SOME LOCATIONS. THIS WAS WELL REFLECTED IN
TOMORROW/S HIGH TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT
TOMORROW NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL ACCORDINGLY ONCE
AGAIN. ENDED UP UPDATING THE OVERNIGHT LOW FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING TO ADJUST THE TEMP DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES
TO BETTER COORDINATE WITH THIS SLIGHT DROP IN TEMPERATURE.

FINALLY...I RERAN THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE BASED ON
CLIMATOLOGY SINCE THIS WILL LIKELY BEST CAPTURE THE HIGH PRESSURE
DIURNAL PATTERN THAT WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. I ALSO LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS TO MAKE SURE THE
NEAR TERM GRIDS WERE A GOOD REFLECTION OF THE CURRENT CONDITIONS.
ALL GRIDS WERE PUBLISHED AND SENT TO NDFD...AND A NEW ZONE
FORECAST PACKAGE HAS BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SHOWERS TO OUR NORTH HAVE QUICKLY DISSIPATED AS THEY MOVED INTO
OUR AREA DUE TO THE DRY AIR/RIDGING IN PLACE. THERE IS STILL A
SLIGHT CHANCE A COUPLE ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP LATE THIS
EVENING BUT OTHERWISE THINGS SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNTIL THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

AT UPPER LEVELS...LOWER HEIGHTS WILL ADVECT IN ON THURSDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIVES SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
SOME OF THIS FORCING...ALONG WITH SOME ENERGY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY ALLOWING FOR A
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE (20-30 POPS) OF SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING ALLOWING FOR A DRY PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.

FOG IS POSSIBLE BOTH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MORE
FOG POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT IN LOCATIONS THAT MAY SEE SOME
RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S WITH LOWS
BOTH NIGHTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MORE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES CROP UP RIGHT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...
AND BEYOND. A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
OUT AND ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL FLATTEN A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST...EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO HUDSON BAY.
A WEAK AREA OF TROUGHING ALOFT...OR TROUGHINESS STRETCHING FROM THE
MIDWEST...THROUGH THE COMMONWEALTH AND SOUTHEAST TO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WILL LINGER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WITH RESPECT TO SENSIBLE WEATHER...OUR SUMMERTIME LIKE WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS ON AVERAGE. CONSIDERING THE MORE RECENT DRY
CONDITIONS AND H850 TEMPS APPROACHING 20C...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 EACH DAY THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.
IN GENERAL WENT WITH MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS AND LOW TO MID 60S
FOR MINS EACH DAY. POPS WILL GENERALLY DEPEND MORE ON SMALL SCALE
TYPE FEATURES AND DIURNAL HEATING VERSUS SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS...THOUGH
MODELS DO HINT AT SOME TYPE OF BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH OUR AREA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND OR BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONSEQUENTLY OR BEST CHANCE AT ANY RAINFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR POSSIBLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 823 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

CONDITIONS LOOK SIMILAR TO THAT OF YESTERDAY...WITH A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVERHEAD...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS
DIMINISHING...AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THE ONLY
DIFFERENCE IS THE FACT THAT THERE WERE A FEW MORE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THIS AFTERNOON EVENING...THOUGH NONE
OF THESE DIRECTLY AFFECTED A TAF SITE. AS SUCH...EXPECT A SIMILAR
FORECAST TO THAT OF LAST NIGHT AS WELL. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. FOG WILL THEN LIKELY
SET UP ACROSS THE VALLEYS...AND MAY LIFT INTO THE TAF SITES LATE
IN THE NIGHT AND NEAR DAWN. MVFR VIS CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT
ALL TAF SITES...BUT AS THE FOG LIFTS SOME SITES COULD EASILY DROP
TO LIFR VIS FOR PERIODS OF TIME CLOSER TO DAWN. ONCE THE FOG
BURNS OFF TOMORROW MORNING...EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF DIURNALLY
DRIVEN VFR CLOUDS AND ISL/SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS
TIME...ONLY INCLUDED MENTION OF VCTS AT THE SITES WITH POPS ABOVE
25 PERCENT. KSME AND KLOZ WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY.
&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...JMW





000
FXUS63 KJKL 022205
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
605 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 557 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

MADE SEVERAL UPDATES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING AND
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. GIVEN THE ONGOING RAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CWA...WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS SO THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOWED UP IN THE
WEATHER GRIDS. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO DIMINISH AFTER 0Z ONCE WE
LOSE SOME OF THE BEST SUN/HEATING. UNTIL THEN...THESE STORMS ARE
SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD SUSTAINABILITY WITH IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOWS
SHOWING UP ON THE RADAR RETURNS...SO EXPECT THEM TO HOLD ON FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS AS THEY DROP SOUTHWARD. POPS WILL LIKELY INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW WITH THE AID OF THE AFTERNOON HEATING...VERY
SIMILAR TO THAT OF TODAY WITH PERHAPS A BIT BETTER COVERAGE. AS
SUCH...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED THE ISL/CHANCE POPS THAT WERE IN THE
FORECAST BETWEEN 10 AND 15Z TOMORROW...SINCE IT IS UNLIKELY THAT
WE WILL SEE ANYTHING BEGIN POPPING UP UNTIL AFTER THIS TIME.

AFTER ADJUSTING THE POPS...WENT AHEAD AND RERAN THE WEATHER GRIDS
TO MAKE SURE THE CHANGES WERE REFLECTED HERE AS WELL. IN
ADDITION...TOOK OUT THE WIDESPREAD AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE
CWA...SINCE /AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS/ MOST
OF THE FOG SHOULD BE CONTAINED TO THE VALLEYS AND CLOSE TO BODIES
OF WATER. KEPT IN THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE FOG...BUT CONFINED IT
TO THESE VALLEY LOCATIONS. THIS MORNING/S VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONFIRMS THIS THINKING...ESPECIALLY SINCE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY
AIRMASS CHANGES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT COMPARED TO THAT OF LAST
NIGHT.

GIVEN OUR TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER IN MANY
LOCATIONS COMPARED TO THAT OF YESTERDAY /THANKS TO THE CONTINUED
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD/...EXPECT
LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TO FOLLOW THE SAME PATTERN...WITH
LOCATIONS GENERALLY EXPERIENCING LOW TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN THAT OF LAST NIGHT. AS SUCH...FELT FORECASTED
OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE TOO LOW IN MOST LOCATIONS...SO WENT AHEAD AND
BUMPED THEM UP ACCORDINGLY. DID TRY TO INCLUDE A BIT OF A RIDGE
VALLEY SPLIT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS. WE MAY HAVE A
BIT MORE CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...AND ALONG WITH NRLY
WINDS...THIS MAY PROHIBIT DAYTIME TEMPS FROM BEING QUITE AS WARM
AS THEY WERE TODAY IN SOME LOCATIONS. THIS WAS WELL REFLECTED IN
TOMORROW/S HIGH TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT
TOMORROW NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL ACCORDINGLY ONCE
AGAIN. ENDED UP UPDATING THE OVERNIGHT LOW FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING TO ADJUST THE TEMP DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES
TO BETTER COORDINATE WITH THIS SLIGHT DROP IN TEMPERATURE.

FINALLY...I RERAN THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE BASED ON
CLIMATOLOGY SINCE THIS WILL LIKELY BEST CAPTURE THE HIGH PRESSURE
DIURNAL PATTERN THAT WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. I ALSO LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS TO MAKE SURE THE
NEAR TERM GRIDS WERE A GOOD REFLECTION OF THE CURRENT CONDITIONS.
ALL GRIDS WERE PUBLISHED AND SENT TO NDFD...AND A NEW ZONE
FORECAST PACKAGE HAS BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SHOWERS TO OUR NORTH HAVE QUICKLY DISSIPATED AS THEY MOVED INTO
OUR AREA DUE TO THE DRY AIR/RIDGING IN PLACE. THERE IS STILL A
SLIGHT CHANCE A COUPLE ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP LATE THIS
EVENING BUT OTHERWISE THINGS SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNTIL THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

AT UPPER LEVELS...LOWER HEIGHTS WILL ADVECT IN ON THURSDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIVES SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
SOME OF THIS FORCING...ALONG WITH SOME ENERGY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY ALLOWING FOR A
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE (20-30 POPS) OF SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING ALLOWING FOR A DRY PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.

FOG IS POSSIBLE BOTH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MORE
FOG POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT IN LOCATIONS THAT MAY SEE SOME
RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S WITH LOWS
BOTH NIGHTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MORE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES CROP UP RIGHT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...
AND BEYOND. A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
OUT AND ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL FLATTEN A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST...EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO HUDSON BAY.
A WEAK AREA OF TROUGHING ALOFT...OR TROUGHINESS STRETCHING FROM THE
MIDWEST...THROUGH THE COMMONWEALTH AND SOUTHEAST TO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WILL LINGER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WITH RESPECT TO SENSIBLE WEATHER...OUR SUMMERTIME LIKE WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS ON AVERAGE. CONSIDERING THE MORE RECENT DRY
CONDITIONS AND H850 TEMPS APPROACHING 20C...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 EACH DAY THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.
IN GENERAL WENT WITH MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS AND LOW TO MID 60S
FOR MINS EACH DAY. POPS WILL GENERALLY DEPEND MORE ON SMALL SCALE
TYPE FEATURES AND DIURNAL HEATING VERSUS SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS...THOUGH
MODELS DO HINT AT SOME TYPE OF BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH OUR AREA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND OR BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONSEQUENTLY OR BEST CHANCE AT ANY RAINFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR POSSIBLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD
TOWARD NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. THIS CLUSTER MAY MAKE IT INTO THE
AREA...POSSIBLY AFFECTING KSYM TAF SITE. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT ALL
RAIN OUT OF THE TAFS. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET
ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER FOGGY NIGHT. IFR OR BELOW CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAWN ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. TOMORROW AFTERNOON...
THERE IS A HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...JVM





000
FXUS63 KJKL 022205
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
605 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 557 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

MADE SEVERAL UPDATES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING AND
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. GIVEN THE ONGOING RAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CWA...WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS SO THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOWED UP IN THE
WEATHER GRIDS. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO DIMINISH AFTER 0Z ONCE WE
LOSE SOME OF THE BEST SUN/HEATING. UNTIL THEN...THESE STORMS ARE
SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD SUSTAINABILITY WITH IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOWS
SHOWING UP ON THE RADAR RETURNS...SO EXPECT THEM TO HOLD ON FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS AS THEY DROP SOUTHWARD. POPS WILL LIKELY INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW WITH THE AID OF THE AFTERNOON HEATING...VERY
SIMILAR TO THAT OF TODAY WITH PERHAPS A BIT BETTER COVERAGE. AS
SUCH...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED THE ISL/CHANCE POPS THAT WERE IN THE
FORECAST BETWEEN 10 AND 15Z TOMORROW...SINCE IT IS UNLIKELY THAT
WE WILL SEE ANYTHING BEGIN POPPING UP UNTIL AFTER THIS TIME.

AFTER ADJUSTING THE POPS...WENT AHEAD AND RERAN THE WEATHER GRIDS
TO MAKE SURE THE CHANGES WERE REFLECTED HERE AS WELL. IN
ADDITION...TOOK OUT THE WIDESPREAD AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE
CWA...SINCE /AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS/ MOST
OF THE FOG SHOULD BE CONTAINED TO THE VALLEYS AND CLOSE TO BODIES
OF WATER. KEPT IN THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE FOG...BUT CONFINED IT
TO THESE VALLEY LOCATIONS. THIS MORNING/S VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONFIRMS THIS THINKING...ESPECIALLY SINCE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY
AIRMASS CHANGES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT COMPARED TO THAT OF LAST
NIGHT.

GIVEN OUR TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER IN MANY
LOCATIONS COMPARED TO THAT OF YESTERDAY /THANKS TO THE CONTINUED
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD/...EXPECT
LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TO FOLLOW THE SAME PATTERN...WITH
LOCATIONS GENERALLY EXPERIENCING LOW TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN THAT OF LAST NIGHT. AS SUCH...FELT FORECASTED
OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE TOO LOW IN MOST LOCATIONS...SO WENT AHEAD AND
BUMPED THEM UP ACCORDINGLY. DID TRY TO INCLUDE A BIT OF A RIDGE
VALLEY SPLIT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS. WE MAY HAVE A
BIT MORE CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...AND ALONG WITH NRLY
WINDS...THIS MAY PROHIBIT DAYTIME TEMPS FROM BEING QUITE AS WARM
AS THEY WERE TODAY IN SOME LOCATIONS. THIS WAS WELL REFLECTED IN
TOMORROW/S HIGH TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT
TOMORROW NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL ACCORDINGLY ONCE
AGAIN. ENDED UP UPDATING THE OVERNIGHT LOW FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING TO ADJUST THE TEMP DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES
TO BETTER COORDINATE WITH THIS SLIGHT DROP IN TEMPERATURE.

FINALLY...I RERAN THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE BASED ON
CLIMATOLOGY SINCE THIS WILL LIKELY BEST CAPTURE THE HIGH PRESSURE
DIURNAL PATTERN THAT WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. I ALSO LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS TO MAKE SURE THE
NEAR TERM GRIDS WERE A GOOD REFLECTION OF THE CURRENT CONDITIONS.
ALL GRIDS WERE PUBLISHED AND SENT TO NDFD...AND A NEW ZONE
FORECAST PACKAGE HAS BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SHOWERS TO OUR NORTH HAVE QUICKLY DISSIPATED AS THEY MOVED INTO
OUR AREA DUE TO THE DRY AIR/RIDGING IN PLACE. THERE IS STILL A
SLIGHT CHANCE A COUPLE ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP LATE THIS
EVENING BUT OTHERWISE THINGS SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNTIL THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

AT UPPER LEVELS...LOWER HEIGHTS WILL ADVECT IN ON THURSDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIVES SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
SOME OF THIS FORCING...ALONG WITH SOME ENERGY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY ALLOWING FOR A
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE (20-30 POPS) OF SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING ALLOWING FOR A DRY PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.

FOG IS POSSIBLE BOTH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MORE
FOG POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT IN LOCATIONS THAT MAY SEE SOME
RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S WITH LOWS
BOTH NIGHTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MORE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES CROP UP RIGHT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...
AND BEYOND. A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
OUT AND ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL FLATTEN A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST...EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO HUDSON BAY.
A WEAK AREA OF TROUGHING ALOFT...OR TROUGHINESS STRETCHING FROM THE
MIDWEST...THROUGH THE COMMONWEALTH AND SOUTHEAST TO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WILL LINGER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WITH RESPECT TO SENSIBLE WEATHER...OUR SUMMERTIME LIKE WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS ON AVERAGE. CONSIDERING THE MORE RECENT DRY
CONDITIONS AND H850 TEMPS APPROACHING 20C...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 EACH DAY THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.
IN GENERAL WENT WITH MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS AND LOW TO MID 60S
FOR MINS EACH DAY. POPS WILL GENERALLY DEPEND MORE ON SMALL SCALE
TYPE FEATURES AND DIURNAL HEATING VERSUS SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS...THOUGH
MODELS DO HINT AT SOME TYPE OF BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH OUR AREA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND OR BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONSEQUENTLY OR BEST CHANCE AT ANY RAINFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR POSSIBLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD
TOWARD NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. THIS CLUSTER MAY MAKE IT INTO THE
AREA...POSSIBLY AFFECTING KSYM TAF SITE. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT ALL
RAIN OUT OF THE TAFS. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET
ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER FOGGY NIGHT. IFR OR BELOW CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAWN ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. TOMORROW AFTERNOON...
THERE IS A HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...JVM




000
FXUS63 KJKL 021925
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
325 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SHOWERS TO OUR NORTH HAVE QUICKLY DISSIPATED AS THEY MOVED INTO
OUR AREA DUE TO THE DRY AIR/RIDGING IN PLACE. THERE IS STILL A
SLIGHT CHANCE A COUPLE ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP LATE THIS
EVENING BUT OTHERWISE THINGS SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNTIL THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

AT UPPER LEVELS...LOWER HEIGHTS WILL ADVECT IN ON THURSDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIVES SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
SOME OF THIS FORCING...ALONG WITH SOME ENERGY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY ALLOWING FOR A
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE (20-30 POPS) OF SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING ALLOWING FOR A DRY PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.

FOG IS POSSIBLE BOTH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MORE
FOG POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT IN LOCATIONS THAT MAY SEE SOME
RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S WITH LOWS
BOTH NIGHTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MORE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES CROP UP RIGHT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...
AND BEYOND. A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
OUT AND ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL FLATTEN A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST...EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO HUDSON BAY.
A WEAK AREA OF TROUGHING ALOFT...OR TROUGHINESS STRETCHING FROM THE
MIDWEST...THROUGH THE COMMONWEALTH AND SOUTHEAST TO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WILL LINGER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WITH RESPECT TO SENSIBLE WEATHER...OUR SUMMERTIME LIKE WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS ON AVERAGE. CONSIDERING THE MORE RECENT DRY
CONDITIONS AND H850 TEMPS APPROACHING 20C...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 EACH DAY THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.
IN GENERAL WENT WITH MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS AND LOW TO MID 60S
FOR MINS EACH DAY. POPS WILL GENERALLY DEPEND MORE ON SMALL SCALE
TYPE FEATURES AND DIURNAL HEATING VERSUS SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS...THOUGH
MODELS DO HINT AT SOME TYPE OF BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH OUR AREA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND OR BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONSEQUENTLY OR BEST CHANCE AT ANY RAINFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR POSSIBLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD
TOWARD NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. THIS CLUSTER MAY MAKE IT INTO THE
AREA...POSSIBLY AFFECTING KSYM TAF SITE. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT ALL
RAIN OUT OF THE TAFS. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET
ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER FOGGY NIGHT. IFR OR BELOW CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAWN ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. TOMORROW AFTERNOON...
THERE IS A HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...JVM





000
FXUS63 KJKL 021925
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
325 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SHOWERS TO OUR NORTH HAVE QUICKLY DISSIPATED AS THEY MOVED INTO
OUR AREA DUE TO THE DRY AIR/RIDGING IN PLACE. THERE IS STILL A
SLIGHT CHANCE A COUPLE ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP LATE THIS
EVENING BUT OTHERWISE THINGS SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNTIL THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

AT UPPER LEVELS...LOWER HEIGHTS WILL ADVECT IN ON THURSDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIVES SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
SOME OF THIS FORCING...ALONG WITH SOME ENERGY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY ALLOWING FOR A
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE (20-30 POPS) OF SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING ALLOWING FOR A DRY PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.

FOG IS POSSIBLE BOTH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MORE
FOG POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT IN LOCATIONS THAT MAY SEE SOME
RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S WITH LOWS
BOTH NIGHTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MORE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES CROP UP RIGHT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...
AND BEYOND. A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
OUT AND ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL FLATTEN A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST...EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO HUDSON BAY.
A WEAK AREA OF TROUGHING ALOFT...OR TROUGHINESS STRETCHING FROM THE
MIDWEST...THROUGH THE COMMONWEALTH AND SOUTHEAST TO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WILL LINGER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WITH RESPECT TO SENSIBLE WEATHER...OUR SUMMERTIME LIKE WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS ON AVERAGE. CONSIDERING THE MORE RECENT DRY
CONDITIONS AND H850 TEMPS APPROACHING 20C...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 EACH DAY THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.
IN GENERAL WENT WITH MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS AND LOW TO MID 60S
FOR MINS EACH DAY. POPS WILL GENERALLY DEPEND MORE ON SMALL SCALE
TYPE FEATURES AND DIURNAL HEATING VERSUS SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS...THOUGH
MODELS DO HINT AT SOME TYPE OF BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH OUR AREA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND OR BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONSEQUENTLY OR BEST CHANCE AT ANY RAINFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR POSSIBLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD
TOWARD NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. THIS CLUSTER MAY MAKE IT INTO THE
AREA...POSSIBLY AFFECTING KSYM TAF SITE. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT ALL
RAIN OUT OF THE TAFS. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET
ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER FOGGY NIGHT. IFR OR BELOW CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAWN ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. TOMORROW AFTERNOON...
THERE IS A HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...JVM




000
FXUS63 KJKL 021741
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
141 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1210 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO POP UP JUST OUTSIDE OF THE
FORECAST AREA SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THOSE THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON. STILL THINKING THEY WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE.
THOUGH...THERE IS A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER DROPPING SSE THROUGH OH
THAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED TO SEE IF IT CLIPS NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY. OTHERWISE...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO FRESHEN UP THE GRIDS.
SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 900 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

EARLY MORNING FOG IS LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY THIS
MORNING BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. TO OUR
NORTH...SHOWERS HAVE FORMED AND ARE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD. SO HAVE
KEPT WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE LATEST HIGH RES GUIDANCE PICKS UP
ON THIS TREND. OTHERWISE...FRESHENED UP THE T/TD GRIDS AND SENT
UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 659 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

WITH FOG MENTIONED IN THE ZONES...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
FOR TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HAVE UPLOADED THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS
FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINT. THE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO NDFD
AND THE WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY CONTINUE TO FEATURE
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THROUGH TODAY AND
THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED WITH
EASTERN KENTUCKY UNDER A BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAK FLOW
WITH LITTLE SUPPORT OVER EAST KENTUCKY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN A DIURNAL TREND TO ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...WHICH WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON TODAY AND
THURSDAY.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE DOES TRACK ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KY
TODAY AND INTO THURSDAY AND WILL ALLOW FOR A BETTER
CHANCE...THOUGH NOT MUCH...OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE
INDICATED THIS IN THE ZONES AS THE HI RES MODELS DO HINT AT
THIS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
EAST. THE MORE PREVALENT CHANCE LIES ON THURSDAY. STILL
THOUGH...NOTHING MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE. OTHERWISE...THE DAYS
WILL BE HIGHLIGHT BY MORNING FOG AND AFTERNOON ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH THOSE HIGHS RUNNING NEARLY 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD...
BUT EMBEDDED WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL PIVOT AROUND THE REGION. WHILE
THE BULK OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY...A SMALL THREAT FOR AN AFTERNOON
SHOWER OR STORM WILL EXIST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AERIAL
COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT...BUT OPTED TO KEEP
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY SO THEY SHOW UP IN THE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...CONSIDERING THE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS AND 850 MB TEMPS
PROGGED TO REACH AROUND 20C...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL INTO THE
80S TO NEAR 90 EACH DAY THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD
TOWARD NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. THIS CLUSTER MAY MAKE IT INTO THE
AREA...POSSIBLY AFFECTING KSYM TAF SITE. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT ALL
RAIN OUT OF THE TAFS. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET
ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER FOGGY NIGHT. IFR OR BELOW CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAWN ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. TOMORROW AFTERNOON...
THERE IS A HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JVM




000
FXUS63 KJKL 021741
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
141 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1210 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO POP UP JUST OUTSIDE OF THE
FORECAST AREA SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THOSE THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON. STILL THINKING THEY WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE.
THOUGH...THERE IS A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER DROPPING SSE THROUGH OH
THAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED TO SEE IF IT CLIPS NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY. OTHERWISE...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO FRESHEN UP THE GRIDS.
SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 900 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

EARLY MORNING FOG IS LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY THIS
MORNING BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. TO OUR
NORTH...SHOWERS HAVE FORMED AND ARE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD. SO HAVE
KEPT WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE LATEST HIGH RES GUIDANCE PICKS UP
ON THIS TREND. OTHERWISE...FRESHENED UP THE T/TD GRIDS AND SENT
UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 659 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

WITH FOG MENTIONED IN THE ZONES...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
FOR TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HAVE UPLOADED THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS
FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINT. THE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO NDFD
AND THE WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY CONTINUE TO FEATURE
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THROUGH TODAY AND
THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED WITH
EASTERN KENTUCKY UNDER A BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAK FLOW
WITH LITTLE SUPPORT OVER EAST KENTUCKY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN A DIURNAL TREND TO ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...WHICH WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON TODAY AND
THURSDAY.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE DOES TRACK ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KY
TODAY AND INTO THURSDAY AND WILL ALLOW FOR A BETTER
CHANCE...THOUGH NOT MUCH...OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE
INDICATED THIS IN THE ZONES AS THE HI RES MODELS DO HINT AT
THIS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
EAST. THE MORE PREVALENT CHANCE LIES ON THURSDAY. STILL
THOUGH...NOTHING MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE. OTHERWISE...THE DAYS
WILL BE HIGHLIGHT BY MORNING FOG AND AFTERNOON ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH THOSE HIGHS RUNNING NEARLY 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD...
BUT EMBEDDED WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL PIVOT AROUND THE REGION. WHILE
THE BULK OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY...A SMALL THREAT FOR AN AFTERNOON
SHOWER OR STORM WILL EXIST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AERIAL
COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT...BUT OPTED TO KEEP
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY SO THEY SHOW UP IN THE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...CONSIDERING THE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS AND 850 MB TEMPS
PROGGED TO REACH AROUND 20C...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL INTO THE
80S TO NEAR 90 EACH DAY THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD
TOWARD NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. THIS CLUSTER MAY MAKE IT INTO THE
AREA...POSSIBLY AFFECTING KSYM TAF SITE. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT ALL
RAIN OUT OF THE TAFS. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET
ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER FOGGY NIGHT. IFR OR BELOW CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAWN ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. TOMORROW AFTERNOON...
THERE IS A HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JVM





000
FXUS63 KJKL 021741
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
141 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1210 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO POP UP JUST OUTSIDE OF THE
FORECAST AREA SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THOSE THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON. STILL THINKING THEY WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE.
THOUGH...THERE IS A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER DROPPING SSE THROUGH OH
THAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED TO SEE IF IT CLIPS NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY. OTHERWISE...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO FRESHEN UP THE GRIDS.
SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 900 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

EARLY MORNING FOG IS LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY THIS
MORNING BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. TO OUR
NORTH...SHOWERS HAVE FORMED AND ARE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD. SO HAVE
KEPT WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE LATEST HIGH RES GUIDANCE PICKS UP
ON THIS TREND. OTHERWISE...FRESHENED UP THE T/TD GRIDS AND SENT
UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 659 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

WITH FOG MENTIONED IN THE ZONES...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
FOR TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HAVE UPLOADED THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS
FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINT. THE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO NDFD
AND THE WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY CONTINUE TO FEATURE
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THROUGH TODAY AND
THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED WITH
EASTERN KENTUCKY UNDER A BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAK FLOW
WITH LITTLE SUPPORT OVER EAST KENTUCKY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN A DIURNAL TREND TO ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...WHICH WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON TODAY AND
THURSDAY.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE DOES TRACK ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KY
TODAY AND INTO THURSDAY AND WILL ALLOW FOR A BETTER
CHANCE...THOUGH NOT MUCH...OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE
INDICATED THIS IN THE ZONES AS THE HI RES MODELS DO HINT AT
THIS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
EAST. THE MORE PREVALENT CHANCE LIES ON THURSDAY. STILL
THOUGH...NOTHING MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE. OTHERWISE...THE DAYS
WILL BE HIGHLIGHT BY MORNING FOG AND AFTERNOON ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH THOSE HIGHS RUNNING NEARLY 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD...
BUT EMBEDDED WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL PIVOT AROUND THE REGION. WHILE
THE BULK OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY...A SMALL THREAT FOR AN AFTERNOON
SHOWER OR STORM WILL EXIST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AERIAL
COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT...BUT OPTED TO KEEP
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY SO THEY SHOW UP IN THE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...CONSIDERING THE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS AND 850 MB TEMPS
PROGGED TO REACH AROUND 20C...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL INTO THE
80S TO NEAR 90 EACH DAY THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD
TOWARD NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. THIS CLUSTER MAY MAKE IT INTO THE
AREA...POSSIBLY AFFECTING KSYM TAF SITE. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT ALL
RAIN OUT OF THE TAFS. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET
ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER FOGGY NIGHT. IFR OR BELOW CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAWN ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. TOMORROW AFTERNOON...
THERE IS A HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JVM




000
FXUS63 KJKL 021741
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
141 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1210 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO POP UP JUST OUTSIDE OF THE
FORECAST AREA SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THOSE THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON. STILL THINKING THEY WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE.
THOUGH...THERE IS A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER DROPPING SSE THROUGH OH
THAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED TO SEE IF IT CLIPS NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY. OTHERWISE...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO FRESHEN UP THE GRIDS.
SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 900 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

EARLY MORNING FOG IS LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY THIS
MORNING BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. TO OUR
NORTH...SHOWERS HAVE FORMED AND ARE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD. SO HAVE
KEPT WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE LATEST HIGH RES GUIDANCE PICKS UP
ON THIS TREND. OTHERWISE...FRESHENED UP THE T/TD GRIDS AND SENT
UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 659 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

WITH FOG MENTIONED IN THE ZONES...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
FOR TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HAVE UPLOADED THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS
FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINT. THE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO NDFD
AND THE WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY CONTINUE TO FEATURE
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THROUGH TODAY AND
THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED WITH
EASTERN KENTUCKY UNDER A BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAK FLOW
WITH LITTLE SUPPORT OVER EAST KENTUCKY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN A DIURNAL TREND TO ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...WHICH WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON TODAY AND
THURSDAY.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE DOES TRACK ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KY
TODAY AND INTO THURSDAY AND WILL ALLOW FOR A BETTER
CHANCE...THOUGH NOT MUCH...OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE
INDICATED THIS IN THE ZONES AS THE HI RES MODELS DO HINT AT
THIS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
EAST. THE MORE PREVALENT CHANCE LIES ON THURSDAY. STILL
THOUGH...NOTHING MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE. OTHERWISE...THE DAYS
WILL BE HIGHLIGHT BY MORNING FOG AND AFTERNOON ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH THOSE HIGHS RUNNING NEARLY 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD...
BUT EMBEDDED WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL PIVOT AROUND THE REGION. WHILE
THE BULK OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY...A SMALL THREAT FOR AN AFTERNOON
SHOWER OR STORM WILL EXIST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AERIAL
COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT...BUT OPTED TO KEEP
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY SO THEY SHOW UP IN THE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...CONSIDERING THE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS AND 850 MB TEMPS
PROGGED TO REACH AROUND 20C...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL INTO THE
80S TO NEAR 90 EACH DAY THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD
TOWARD NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. THIS CLUSTER MAY MAKE IT INTO THE
AREA...POSSIBLY AFFECTING KSYM TAF SITE. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT ALL
RAIN OUT OF THE TAFS. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET
ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER FOGGY NIGHT. IFR OR BELOW CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAWN ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. TOMORROW AFTERNOON...
THERE IS A HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JVM





000
FXUS63 KJKL 021610
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1210 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1210 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO POP UP JUST OUTSIDE OF THE
FORECAST AREA SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THOSE THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON. STILL THINKING THEY WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE.
THOUGH...THERE IS A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER DROPPING SSE THROUGH OH
THAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED TO SEE IF IT CLIPS NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY. OTHERWISE...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO FRESHEN UP THE GRIDS.
SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 900 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

EARLY MORNING FOG IS LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY THIS
MORNING BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. TO OUR
NORTH...SHOWERS HAVE FORMED AND ARE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD. SO HAVE
KEPT WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE LATEST HIGH RES GUIDANCE PICKS UP
ON THIS TREND. OTHERWISE...FRESHENED UP THE T/TD GRIDS AND SENT
UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 659 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

WITH FOG MENTIONED IN THE ZONES...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
FOR TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HAVE UPLOADED THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS
FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINT. THE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO NDFD
AND THE WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY CONTINUE TO FEATURE
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THROUGH TODAY AND
THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED WITH
EASTERN KENTUCKY UNDER A BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAK FLOW
WITH LITTLE SUPPORT OVER EAST KENTUCKY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN A DIURNAL TREND TO ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...WHICH WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON TODAY AND
THURSDAY.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE DOES TRACK ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KY
TODAY AND INTO THURSDAY AND WILL ALLOW FOR A BETTER
CHANCE...THOUGH NOT MUCH...OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE
INDICATED THIS IN THE ZONES AS THE HI RES MODELS DO HINT AT
THIS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
EAST. THE MORE PREVALENT CHANCE LIES ON THURSDAY. STILL
THOUGH...NOTHING MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE. OTHERWISE...THE DAYS
WILL BE HIGHLIGHT BY MORNING FOG AND AFTERNOON ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH THOSE HIGHS RUNNING NEARLY 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD...
BUT EMBEDDED WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL PIVOT AROUND THE REGION. WHILE
THE BULK OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY...A SMALL THREAT FOR AN AFTERNOON
SHOWER OR STORM WILL EXIST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AERIAL
COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT...BUT OPTED TO KEEP
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY SO THEY SHOW UP IN THE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...CONSIDERING THE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS AND 850 MB TEMPS
PROGGED TO REACH AROUND 20C...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL INTO THE
80S TO NEAR 90 EACH DAY THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

AGAIN TO START THE TAF PERIOD...MVFR AND IFR FOG STARTS OVER THE
TAF SITES. WILL MENTION THIS FOR THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE
PERIOD BEFORE THE FOG BURNS OFF BY 14Z. WINDS WILL STILL BE LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS. A 4 KFT SCATTERED CU
LAYER IS EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SKIES CLEAR UP AGAIN
TONIGHT. FOG WILL THEN BE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT TOWARDS DAWN.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER




000
FXUS63 KJKL 021610
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1210 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1210 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO POP UP JUST OUTSIDE OF THE
FORECAST AREA SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THOSE THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON. STILL THINKING THEY WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE.
THOUGH...THERE IS A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER DROPPING SSE THROUGH OH
THAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED TO SEE IF IT CLIPS NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY. OTHERWISE...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO FRESHEN UP THE GRIDS.
SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 900 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

EARLY MORNING FOG IS LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY THIS
MORNING BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. TO OUR
NORTH...SHOWERS HAVE FORMED AND ARE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD. SO HAVE
KEPT WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE LATEST HIGH RES GUIDANCE PICKS UP
ON THIS TREND. OTHERWISE...FRESHENED UP THE T/TD GRIDS AND SENT
UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 659 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

WITH FOG MENTIONED IN THE ZONES...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
FOR TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HAVE UPLOADED THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS
FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINT. THE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO NDFD
AND THE WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY CONTINUE TO FEATURE
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THROUGH TODAY AND
THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED WITH
EASTERN KENTUCKY UNDER A BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAK FLOW
WITH LITTLE SUPPORT OVER EAST KENTUCKY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN A DIURNAL TREND TO ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...WHICH WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON TODAY AND
THURSDAY.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE DOES TRACK ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KY
TODAY AND INTO THURSDAY AND WILL ALLOW FOR A BETTER
CHANCE...THOUGH NOT MUCH...OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE
INDICATED THIS IN THE ZONES AS THE HI RES MODELS DO HINT AT
THIS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
EAST. THE MORE PREVALENT CHANCE LIES ON THURSDAY. STILL
THOUGH...NOTHING MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE. OTHERWISE...THE DAYS
WILL BE HIGHLIGHT BY MORNING FOG AND AFTERNOON ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH THOSE HIGHS RUNNING NEARLY 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD...
BUT EMBEDDED WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL PIVOT AROUND THE REGION. WHILE
THE BULK OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY...A SMALL THREAT FOR AN AFTERNOON
SHOWER OR STORM WILL EXIST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AERIAL
COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT...BUT OPTED TO KEEP
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY SO THEY SHOW UP IN THE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...CONSIDERING THE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS AND 850 MB TEMPS
PROGGED TO REACH AROUND 20C...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL INTO THE
80S TO NEAR 90 EACH DAY THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

AGAIN TO START THE TAF PERIOD...MVFR AND IFR FOG STARTS OVER THE
TAF SITES. WILL MENTION THIS FOR THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE
PERIOD BEFORE THE FOG BURNS OFF BY 14Z. WINDS WILL STILL BE LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS. A 4 KFT SCATTERED CU
LAYER IS EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SKIES CLEAR UP AGAIN
TONIGHT. FOG WILL THEN BE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT TOWARDS DAWN.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER




000
FXUS63 KJKL 021610
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1210 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1210 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO POP UP JUST OUTSIDE OF THE
FORECAST AREA SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THOSE THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON. STILL THINKING THEY WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE.
THOUGH...THERE IS A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER DROPPING SSE THROUGH OH
THAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED TO SEE IF IT CLIPS NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY. OTHERWISE...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO FRESHEN UP THE GRIDS.
SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 900 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

EARLY MORNING FOG IS LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY THIS
MORNING BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. TO OUR
NORTH...SHOWERS HAVE FORMED AND ARE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD. SO HAVE
KEPT WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE LATEST HIGH RES GUIDANCE PICKS UP
ON THIS TREND. OTHERWISE...FRESHENED UP THE T/TD GRIDS AND SENT
UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 659 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

WITH FOG MENTIONED IN THE ZONES...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
FOR TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HAVE UPLOADED THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS
FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINT. THE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO NDFD
AND THE WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY CONTINUE TO FEATURE
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THROUGH TODAY AND
THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED WITH
EASTERN KENTUCKY UNDER A BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAK FLOW
WITH LITTLE SUPPORT OVER EAST KENTUCKY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN A DIURNAL TREND TO ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...WHICH WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON TODAY AND
THURSDAY.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE DOES TRACK ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KY
TODAY AND INTO THURSDAY AND WILL ALLOW FOR A BETTER
CHANCE...THOUGH NOT MUCH...OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE
INDICATED THIS IN THE ZONES AS THE HI RES MODELS DO HINT AT
THIS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
EAST. THE MORE PREVALENT CHANCE LIES ON THURSDAY. STILL
THOUGH...NOTHING MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE. OTHERWISE...THE DAYS
WILL BE HIGHLIGHT BY MORNING FOG AND AFTERNOON ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH THOSE HIGHS RUNNING NEARLY 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD...
BUT EMBEDDED WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL PIVOT AROUND THE REGION. WHILE
THE BULK OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY...A SMALL THREAT FOR AN AFTERNOON
SHOWER OR STORM WILL EXIST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AERIAL
COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT...BUT OPTED TO KEEP
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY SO THEY SHOW UP IN THE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...CONSIDERING THE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS AND 850 MB TEMPS
PROGGED TO REACH AROUND 20C...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL INTO THE
80S TO NEAR 90 EACH DAY THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

AGAIN TO START THE TAF PERIOD...MVFR AND IFR FOG STARTS OVER THE
TAF SITES. WILL MENTION THIS FOR THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE
PERIOD BEFORE THE FOG BURNS OFF BY 14Z. WINDS WILL STILL BE LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS. A 4 KFT SCATTERED CU
LAYER IS EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SKIES CLEAR UP AGAIN
TONIGHT. FOG WILL THEN BE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT TOWARDS DAWN.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER





000
FXUS63 KJKL 021300
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
900 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

EARLY MORNING FOG IS LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY THIS
MORNING BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. TO OUR
NORTH...SHOWERS HAVE FORMED AND ARE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD. SO HAVE
KEPT WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE LATEST HIGH RES GUIDANCE PICKS UP
ON THIS TREND. OTHERWISE...FRESHENED UP THE T/TD GRIDS AND SENT
UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 659 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

WITH FOG MENTIONED IN THE ZONES...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
FOR TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HAVE UPLOADED THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS
FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINT. THE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO NDFD
AND THE WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY CONTINUE TO FEATURE
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THROUGH TODAY AND
THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED WITH
EASTERN KENTUCKY UNDER A BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAK FLOW
WITH LITTLE SUPPORT OVER EAST KENTUCKY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN A DIURNAL TREND TO ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...WHICH WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON TODAY AND
THURSDAY.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE DOES TRACK ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KY
TODAY AND INTO THURSDAY AND WILL ALLOW FOR A BETTER
CHANCE...THOUGH NOT MUCH...OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE
INDICATED THIS IN THE ZONES AS THE HI RES MODELS DO HINT AT
THIS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
EAST. THE MORE PREVALENT CHANCE LIES ON THURSDAY. STILL
THOUGH...NOTHING MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE. OTHERWISE...THE DAYS
WILL BE HIGHLIGHT BY MORNING FOG AND AFTERNOON ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH THOSE HIGHS RUNNING NEARLY 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD...
BUT EMBEDDED WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL PIVOT AROUND THE REGION. WHILE
THE BULK OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY...A SMALL THREAT FOR AN AFTERNOON
SHOWER OR STORM WILL EXIST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AERIAL
COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT...BUT OPTED TO KEEP
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY SO THEY SHOW UP IN THE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...CONSIDERING THE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS AND 850 MB TEMPS
PROGGED TO REACH AROUND 20C...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL INTO THE
80S TO NEAR 90 EACH DAY THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

AGAIN TO START THE TAF PERIOD...MVFR AND IFR FOG STARTS OVER THE
TAF SITES. WILL MENTION THIS FOR THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE
PERIOD BEFORE THE FOG BURNS OFF BY 14Z. WINDS WILL STILL BE LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS. A 4 KFT SCATTERED CU
LAYER IS EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SKIES CLEAR UP AGAIN
TONIGHT. FOG WILL THEN BE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT TOWARDS DAWN.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER





000
FXUS63 KJKL 021300
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
900 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

EARLY MORNING FOG IS LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY THIS
MORNING BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. TO OUR
NORTH...SHOWERS HAVE FORMED AND ARE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD. SO HAVE
KEPT WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE LATEST HIGH RES GUIDANCE PICKS UP
ON THIS TREND. OTHERWISE...FRESHENED UP THE T/TD GRIDS AND SENT
UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 659 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

WITH FOG MENTIONED IN THE ZONES...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
FOR TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HAVE UPLOADED THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS
FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINT. THE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO NDFD
AND THE WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY CONTINUE TO FEATURE
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THROUGH TODAY AND
THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED WITH
EASTERN KENTUCKY UNDER A BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAK FLOW
WITH LITTLE SUPPORT OVER EAST KENTUCKY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN A DIURNAL TREND TO ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...WHICH WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON TODAY AND
THURSDAY.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE DOES TRACK ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KY
TODAY AND INTO THURSDAY AND WILL ALLOW FOR A BETTER
CHANCE...THOUGH NOT MUCH...OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE
INDICATED THIS IN THE ZONES AS THE HI RES MODELS DO HINT AT
THIS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
EAST. THE MORE PREVALENT CHANCE LIES ON THURSDAY. STILL
THOUGH...NOTHING MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE. OTHERWISE...THE DAYS
WILL BE HIGHLIGHT BY MORNING FOG AND AFTERNOON ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH THOSE HIGHS RUNNING NEARLY 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD...
BUT EMBEDDED WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL PIVOT AROUND THE REGION. WHILE
THE BULK OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY...A SMALL THREAT FOR AN AFTERNOON
SHOWER OR STORM WILL EXIST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AERIAL
COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT...BUT OPTED TO KEEP
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY SO THEY SHOW UP IN THE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...CONSIDERING THE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS AND 850 MB TEMPS
PROGGED TO REACH AROUND 20C...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL INTO THE
80S TO NEAR 90 EACH DAY THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

AGAIN TO START THE TAF PERIOD...MVFR AND IFR FOG STARTS OVER THE
TAF SITES. WILL MENTION THIS FOR THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE
PERIOD BEFORE THE FOG BURNS OFF BY 14Z. WINDS WILL STILL BE LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS. A 4 KFT SCATTERED CU
LAYER IS EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SKIES CLEAR UP AGAIN
TONIGHT. FOG WILL THEN BE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT TOWARDS DAWN.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER





000
FXUS63 KJKL 021300
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
900 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

EARLY MORNING FOG IS LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY THIS
MORNING BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. TO OUR
NORTH...SHOWERS HAVE FORMED AND ARE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD. SO HAVE
KEPT WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE LATEST HIGH RES GUIDANCE PICKS UP
ON THIS TREND. OTHERWISE...FRESHENED UP THE T/TD GRIDS AND SENT
UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 659 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

WITH FOG MENTIONED IN THE ZONES...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
FOR TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HAVE UPLOADED THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS
FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINT. THE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO NDFD
AND THE WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY CONTINUE TO FEATURE
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THROUGH TODAY AND
THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED WITH
EASTERN KENTUCKY UNDER A BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAK FLOW
WITH LITTLE SUPPORT OVER EAST KENTUCKY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN A DIURNAL TREND TO ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...WHICH WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON TODAY AND
THURSDAY.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE DOES TRACK ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KY
TODAY AND INTO THURSDAY AND WILL ALLOW FOR A BETTER
CHANCE...THOUGH NOT MUCH...OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE
INDICATED THIS IN THE ZONES AS THE HI RES MODELS DO HINT AT
THIS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
EAST. THE MORE PREVALENT CHANCE LIES ON THURSDAY. STILL
THOUGH...NOTHING MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE. OTHERWISE...THE DAYS
WILL BE HIGHLIGHT BY MORNING FOG AND AFTERNOON ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH THOSE HIGHS RUNNING NEARLY 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD...
BUT EMBEDDED WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL PIVOT AROUND THE REGION. WHILE
THE BULK OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY...A SMALL THREAT FOR AN AFTERNOON
SHOWER OR STORM WILL EXIST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AERIAL
COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT...BUT OPTED TO KEEP
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY SO THEY SHOW UP IN THE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...CONSIDERING THE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS AND 850 MB TEMPS
PROGGED TO REACH AROUND 20C...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL INTO THE
80S TO NEAR 90 EACH DAY THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

AGAIN TO START THE TAF PERIOD...MVFR AND IFR FOG STARTS OVER THE
TAF SITES. WILL MENTION THIS FOR THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE
PERIOD BEFORE THE FOG BURNS OFF BY 14Z. WINDS WILL STILL BE LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS. A 4 KFT SCATTERED CU
LAYER IS EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SKIES CLEAR UP AGAIN
TONIGHT. FOG WILL THEN BE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT TOWARDS DAWN.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER




000
FXUS63 KJKL 021059
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
659 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 659 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

WITH FOG MENTIONED IN THE ZONES...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
FOR TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HAVE UPLOADED THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS
FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINT. THE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO NDFD
AND THE WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY CONTINUE TO FEATURE
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THROUGH TODAY AND
THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED WITH
EASTERN KENTUCKY UNDER A BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAK FLOW
WITH LITTLE SUPPORT OVER EAST KENTUCKY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN A DIURNAL TREND TO ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...WHICH WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON TODAY AND
THURSDAY.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE DOES TRACK ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KY
TODAY AND INTO THURSDAY AND WILL ALLOW FOR A BETTER
CHANCE...THOUGH NOT MUCH...OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE
INDICATED THIS IN THE ZONES AS THE HI RES MODELS DO HINT AT
THIS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
EAST. THE MORE PREVALENT CHANCE LIES ON THURSDAY. STILL
THOUGH...NOTHING MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE. OTHERWISE...THE DAYS
WILL BE HIGHLIGHT BY MORNING FOG AND AFTERNOON ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH THOSE HIGHS RUNNING NEARLY 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD...
BUT EMBEDDED WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL PIVOT AROUND THE REGION. WHILE
THE BULK OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY...A SMALL THREAT FOR AN AFTERNOON
SHOWER OR STORM WILL EXIST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AERIAL
COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT...BUT OPTED TO KEEP
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY SO THEY SHOW UP IN THE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...CONSIDERING THE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS AND 850 MB TEMPS
PROGGED TO REACH AROUND 20C...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL INTO THE
80S TO NEAR 90 EACH DAY THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

AGAIN TO START THE TAF PERIOD...MVFR AND IFR FOG STARTS OVER THE
TAF SITES. WILL MENTION THIS FOR THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE
PERIOD BEFORE THE FOG BURNS OFF BY 14Z. WINDS WILL STILL BE LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS. A 4 KFT SCATTERED CU
LAYER IS EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SKIES CLEAR UP AGAIN
TONIGHT. FOG WILL THEN BE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT TOWARDS DAWN.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER





000
FXUS63 KJKL 021059
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
659 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 659 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

WITH FOG MENTIONED IN THE ZONES...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
FOR TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HAVE UPLOADED THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS
FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINT. THE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO NDFD
AND THE WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY CONTINUE TO FEATURE
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THROUGH TODAY AND
THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED WITH
EASTERN KENTUCKY UNDER A BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAK FLOW
WITH LITTLE SUPPORT OVER EAST KENTUCKY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN A DIURNAL TREND TO ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...WHICH WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON TODAY AND
THURSDAY.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE DOES TRACK ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KY
TODAY AND INTO THURSDAY AND WILL ALLOW FOR A BETTER
CHANCE...THOUGH NOT MUCH...OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE
INDICATED THIS IN THE ZONES AS THE HI RES MODELS DO HINT AT
THIS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
EAST. THE MORE PREVALENT CHANCE LIES ON THURSDAY. STILL
THOUGH...NOTHING MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE. OTHERWISE...THE DAYS
WILL BE HIGHLIGHT BY MORNING FOG AND AFTERNOON ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH THOSE HIGHS RUNNING NEARLY 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD...
BUT EMBEDDED WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL PIVOT AROUND THE REGION. WHILE
THE BULK OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY...A SMALL THREAT FOR AN AFTERNOON
SHOWER OR STORM WILL EXIST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AERIAL
COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT...BUT OPTED TO KEEP
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY SO THEY SHOW UP IN THE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...CONSIDERING THE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS AND 850 MB TEMPS
PROGGED TO REACH AROUND 20C...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL INTO THE
80S TO NEAR 90 EACH DAY THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

AGAIN TO START THE TAF PERIOD...MVFR AND IFR FOG STARTS OVER THE
TAF SITES. WILL MENTION THIS FOR THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE
PERIOD BEFORE THE FOG BURNS OFF BY 14Z. WINDS WILL STILL BE LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS. A 4 KFT SCATTERED CU
LAYER IS EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SKIES CLEAR UP AGAIN
TONIGHT. FOG WILL THEN BE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT TOWARDS DAWN.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER




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