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000
FXUS63 KJKL 300142
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
942 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

MOST OF THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS WANED WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING SO HAVE REDUCED POPS AND REMOVED THUNDER FROM THE GRIDS
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THERE IS ONE LONELY STORM IN THE CWA BUT
EXPECT THAT TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT HOUR. TEMPS ARE A BIT COOLER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST DUE TO THE EVENING SHOWER ACTIVITY SO
ADJUSTED THOSE TO BETTER REFLECT THE OBS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. THE MOST PROMINENT SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE CURRENTLY IMPACTING KNOTT/FLOYD/JOHNSON COUNTIES AND
POINTS EAST...WHERE SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVE COLLIDED
TOGETHER. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. IN TERMS
OF THE FORECAST...GRIDS APPEAR ON TRACK SO ONLY MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMP GRIDS TO REFLECT MOST RECENT OBS. SENT
UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER FAR EASTERN
KENTUCKY WHILE LOW PRESSURE IS FOUND TO THE WEST OF THE AREA.
BETWEEN THESE...A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR IS SUPPORTING WARM
TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS. WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES THE
INSTABILITY WAS SUFFICIENT TO KICK OFF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
THIS CONVECTION IS FAVORING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE A
BIT MORE SUNSHINE WAS SEEN EARLIER IN THE DAY AND DEWPOINTS WERE
HIGHER. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES MADE IT INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S
BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION KNOCKED THEM BACK INTO THE 70S...FOR A
TIME...IN MANY LOCATIONS. WINDS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY FROM THE
SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS ACROSS THE AREA WHILE DEWPOINTS MADE IT INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 60S IN THE WEST...BUT FELL INTO THE UPPER 50S
IN THE FAR EAST...CLOSER TO THE HEART OF THE HIGH PRESSURE.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL SHOW THE WEAK SOUTHEAST RIDGE
SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST IN THE FACE OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE ENERGY FROM THIS WILL MOVE INTO KENTUCKY
ON SATURDAY AND PASS THROUGH THE STATE BY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
ITS CORE PASSING BY TO THE NORTHWEST. IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS SHOULD FAVOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
NAM12 AND HRRR MODELS FAVORED FOR SPECIFICS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE SCATTERED CONVECTION SETTLING
DOWN AFTER SUNSET ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPING LATER IN THE NIGHT...BECOMING LOCALLY DENSE IN THE
VALLEYS TOWARD DAWN WITH MILD AND MUGGY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW PASSING
THROUGH SOUTHERN INDIANA SATURDAY WILL BRING A THREAT OF STORMS
AGAIN FOR THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
AND OVER THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THE GFS HAS THE BEST TIMING
AND PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY.
AND WAS USED AS A TEMPLATE THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...THE
NAM12 AND ECMWF SPLIT THE FRONT MOVING IT THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING...TAKING THE MAIN LOW
INTO OHIO AND BYPASSING THIS PART OF THE STATE TO THE NORTH. THIS
TRANSITION MAY LIMIT THE QPF OVER THE CWA COMPARED TO THE WEST AND
NORTH...ALSO SEEN IN THE GFS...LOWERING CONFIDENCE IN A NEEDED
SOAKING RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE KEPT POPS IN
THE MID TO HIGH CHANCE RANGE THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.

AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS INTO SATURDAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH
12Z SUNDAY. MADE SOME MINOR RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE
ADJUSTMENTS FOR LOWS AND HOURLY TEMPS EACH NIGHT. AS FOR POPS...
ENDED UP A BIT HIGHER THAN A BLEND OF THE DRIER MET AND WETTER MAV
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH AN EXAGGERATED DIURNAL CYCLE
FOR THE HOURLY POPS/WX GRIDS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AND MORE OF
A SYNOPTIC DRIVEN POP GRID FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

BASED ON MODEL TRENDS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...WENT AHEAD AND MADE
SOME FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL INVOLVE MUCH LESS RAIN CHANCES.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...ON SUNDAY...A VORT MAX WILL BE LIFTING
NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY INTO INDIANA AND OHIO. THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE SOME GOOD DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH IT TO PRODUCE GOOD
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME STORMS OVER THESE AREAS.
HOWEVER...THIS FORCING JUST GRAZES THE BLUEGRASS REGION OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY...WITH MOST OF THE FORCING STAYING TO OUR NORTH.
HOWEVER...THIS WAVE WILL SEND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA AND WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ON
SUNDAY...WE COULD SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE
BOUNDARY PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE DAY. STILL PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITY
FOR THE INSTABILITY TO NOT MATERIALIZE AND WE END UP DRIER THAN
EXPECTED.  SAFE TO SAY...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON RAIN CHANCES ON
SUNDAY. IN FACT...THE GFS GUIDANCE HAS BECOME MUCH MORE PESSIMISTIC
ON RAIN CHANCES ON SUNDAY. ECMWF REMAIN A BIT SLOWER WITH THIS WAVE
AND FRONT...WHICH WOULD PROVIDE BETTER SUPPORT FOR RAIN ON SUNDAY IF
THE FRONT CAN STALL OVER OUR REGION.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT
SOUTH AND EAST...WITH PERHAPS SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
LINGERING INTO MONDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...MODELS
ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON DRY WEATHER FROM LATE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. THIS WARRANTS REMOVING RAIN CHANCES FROM MONDAY NIGHT
ONWARD.  AS THE HIGH SETTLES EAST BY THURSDAY...SOME RETURN FLOW MAY
DEVELOP WITH SOME MOISTURE RETURNING...WHICH COULD BRING BACK THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
REGARDLESS...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.  A BRIEF COOL DOWN...WITH LOWER HUMIDITIES WILL BE SEEN EARLY
IN THE COMING WEEK BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL BY MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH
HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE HOUR OR SO
THEN WANE AFTER SUNSET. THIS WARRANTS KEEPING VCTS AT MOST OF THE
TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 02Z. ONCE THE CONVECTION DISSIPATES SOME
PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE VALLEYS AFTER 06Z
AFFECTING MOST OF THE TAF SITES WITH SOME MVFR VIS. IFR VIS MAY
ALSO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN LOCATIONS WHERE IT
RAINED...PARTICULARLY THE SJS...SME AND LOZ TAF SITES.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY WITH VCTS AGAIN INCLUDED. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...PICKING UP AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JVM/GREIF





000
FXUS63 KJKL 300142
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
942 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

MOST OF THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS WANED WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING SO HAVE REDUCED POPS AND REMOVED THUNDER FROM THE GRIDS
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THERE IS ONE LONELY STORM IN THE CWA BUT
EXPECT THAT TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT HOUR. TEMPS ARE A BIT COOLER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST DUE TO THE EVENING SHOWER ACTIVITY SO
ADJUSTED THOSE TO BETTER REFLECT THE OBS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. THE MOST PROMINENT SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE CURRENTLY IMPACTING KNOTT/FLOYD/JOHNSON COUNTIES AND
POINTS EAST...WHERE SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVE COLLIDED
TOGETHER. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. IN TERMS
OF THE FORECAST...GRIDS APPEAR ON TRACK SO ONLY MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMP GRIDS TO REFLECT MOST RECENT OBS. SENT
UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER FAR EASTERN
KENTUCKY WHILE LOW PRESSURE IS FOUND TO THE WEST OF THE AREA.
BETWEEN THESE...A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR IS SUPPORTING WARM
TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS. WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES THE
INSTABILITY WAS SUFFICIENT TO KICK OFF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
THIS CONVECTION IS FAVORING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE A
BIT MORE SUNSHINE WAS SEEN EARLIER IN THE DAY AND DEWPOINTS WERE
HIGHER. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES MADE IT INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S
BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION KNOCKED THEM BACK INTO THE 70S...FOR A
TIME...IN MANY LOCATIONS. WINDS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY FROM THE
SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS ACROSS THE AREA WHILE DEWPOINTS MADE IT INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 60S IN THE WEST...BUT FELL INTO THE UPPER 50S
IN THE FAR EAST...CLOSER TO THE HEART OF THE HIGH PRESSURE.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL SHOW THE WEAK SOUTHEAST RIDGE
SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST IN THE FACE OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE ENERGY FROM THIS WILL MOVE INTO KENTUCKY
ON SATURDAY AND PASS THROUGH THE STATE BY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
ITS CORE PASSING BY TO THE NORTHWEST. IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS SHOULD FAVOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
NAM12 AND HRRR MODELS FAVORED FOR SPECIFICS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE SCATTERED CONVECTION SETTLING
DOWN AFTER SUNSET ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPING LATER IN THE NIGHT...BECOMING LOCALLY DENSE IN THE
VALLEYS TOWARD DAWN WITH MILD AND MUGGY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW PASSING
THROUGH SOUTHERN INDIANA SATURDAY WILL BRING A THREAT OF STORMS
AGAIN FOR THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
AND OVER THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THE GFS HAS THE BEST TIMING
AND PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY.
AND WAS USED AS A TEMPLATE THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...THE
NAM12 AND ECMWF SPLIT THE FRONT MOVING IT THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING...TAKING THE MAIN LOW
INTO OHIO AND BYPASSING THIS PART OF THE STATE TO THE NORTH. THIS
TRANSITION MAY LIMIT THE QPF OVER THE CWA COMPARED TO THE WEST AND
NORTH...ALSO SEEN IN THE GFS...LOWERING CONFIDENCE IN A NEEDED
SOAKING RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE KEPT POPS IN
THE MID TO HIGH CHANCE RANGE THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.

AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS INTO SATURDAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH
12Z SUNDAY. MADE SOME MINOR RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE
ADJUSTMENTS FOR LOWS AND HOURLY TEMPS EACH NIGHT. AS FOR POPS...
ENDED UP A BIT HIGHER THAN A BLEND OF THE DRIER MET AND WETTER MAV
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH AN EXAGGERATED DIURNAL CYCLE
FOR THE HOURLY POPS/WX GRIDS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AND MORE OF
A SYNOPTIC DRIVEN POP GRID FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

BASED ON MODEL TRENDS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...WENT AHEAD AND MADE
SOME FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL INVOLVE MUCH LESS RAIN CHANCES.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...ON SUNDAY...A VORT MAX WILL BE LIFTING
NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY INTO INDIANA AND OHIO. THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE SOME GOOD DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH IT TO PRODUCE GOOD
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME STORMS OVER THESE AREAS.
HOWEVER...THIS FORCING JUST GRAZES THE BLUEGRASS REGION OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY...WITH MOST OF THE FORCING STAYING TO OUR NORTH.
HOWEVER...THIS WAVE WILL SEND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA AND WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ON
SUNDAY...WE COULD SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE
BOUNDARY PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE DAY. STILL PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITY
FOR THE INSTABILITY TO NOT MATERIALIZE AND WE END UP DRIER THAN
EXPECTED.  SAFE TO SAY...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON RAIN CHANCES ON
SUNDAY. IN FACT...THE GFS GUIDANCE HAS BECOME MUCH MORE PESSIMISTIC
ON RAIN CHANCES ON SUNDAY. ECMWF REMAIN A BIT SLOWER WITH THIS WAVE
AND FRONT...WHICH WOULD PROVIDE BETTER SUPPORT FOR RAIN ON SUNDAY IF
THE FRONT CAN STALL OVER OUR REGION.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT
SOUTH AND EAST...WITH PERHAPS SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
LINGERING INTO MONDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...MODELS
ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON DRY WEATHER FROM LATE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. THIS WARRANTS REMOVING RAIN CHANCES FROM MONDAY NIGHT
ONWARD.  AS THE HIGH SETTLES EAST BY THURSDAY...SOME RETURN FLOW MAY
DEVELOP WITH SOME MOISTURE RETURNING...WHICH COULD BRING BACK THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
REGARDLESS...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.  A BRIEF COOL DOWN...WITH LOWER HUMIDITIES WILL BE SEEN EARLY
IN THE COMING WEEK BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL BY MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH
HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE HOUR OR SO
THEN WANE AFTER SUNSET. THIS WARRANTS KEEPING VCTS AT MOST OF THE
TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 02Z. ONCE THE CONVECTION DISSIPATES SOME
PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE VALLEYS AFTER 06Z
AFFECTING MOST OF THE TAF SITES WITH SOME MVFR VIS. IFR VIS MAY
ALSO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN LOCATIONS WHERE IT
RAINED...PARTICULARLY THE SJS...SME AND LOZ TAF SITES.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY WITH VCTS AGAIN INCLUDED. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...PICKING UP AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JVM/GREIF




000
FXUS63 KJKL 300142
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
942 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

MOST OF THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS WANED WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING SO HAVE REDUCED POPS AND REMOVED THUNDER FROM THE GRIDS
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THERE IS ONE LONELY STORM IN THE CWA BUT
EXPECT THAT TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT HOUR. TEMPS ARE A BIT COOLER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST DUE TO THE EVENING SHOWER ACTIVITY SO
ADJUSTED THOSE TO BETTER REFLECT THE OBS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. THE MOST PROMINENT SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE CURRENTLY IMPACTING KNOTT/FLOYD/JOHNSON COUNTIES AND
POINTS EAST...WHERE SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVE COLLIDED
TOGETHER. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. IN TERMS
OF THE FORECAST...GRIDS APPEAR ON TRACK SO ONLY MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMP GRIDS TO REFLECT MOST RECENT OBS. SENT
UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER FAR EASTERN
KENTUCKY WHILE LOW PRESSURE IS FOUND TO THE WEST OF THE AREA.
BETWEEN THESE...A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR IS SUPPORTING WARM
TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS. WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES THE
INSTABILITY WAS SUFFICIENT TO KICK OFF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
THIS CONVECTION IS FAVORING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE A
BIT MORE SUNSHINE WAS SEEN EARLIER IN THE DAY AND DEWPOINTS WERE
HIGHER. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES MADE IT INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S
BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION KNOCKED THEM BACK INTO THE 70S...FOR A
TIME...IN MANY LOCATIONS. WINDS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY FROM THE
SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS ACROSS THE AREA WHILE DEWPOINTS MADE IT INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 60S IN THE WEST...BUT FELL INTO THE UPPER 50S
IN THE FAR EAST...CLOSER TO THE HEART OF THE HIGH PRESSURE.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL SHOW THE WEAK SOUTHEAST RIDGE
SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST IN THE FACE OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE ENERGY FROM THIS WILL MOVE INTO KENTUCKY
ON SATURDAY AND PASS THROUGH THE STATE BY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
ITS CORE PASSING BY TO THE NORTHWEST. IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS SHOULD FAVOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
NAM12 AND HRRR MODELS FAVORED FOR SPECIFICS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE SCATTERED CONVECTION SETTLING
DOWN AFTER SUNSET ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPING LATER IN THE NIGHT...BECOMING LOCALLY DENSE IN THE
VALLEYS TOWARD DAWN WITH MILD AND MUGGY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW PASSING
THROUGH SOUTHERN INDIANA SATURDAY WILL BRING A THREAT OF STORMS
AGAIN FOR THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
AND OVER THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THE GFS HAS THE BEST TIMING
AND PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY.
AND WAS USED AS A TEMPLATE THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...THE
NAM12 AND ECMWF SPLIT THE FRONT MOVING IT THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING...TAKING THE MAIN LOW
INTO OHIO AND BYPASSING THIS PART OF THE STATE TO THE NORTH. THIS
TRANSITION MAY LIMIT THE QPF OVER THE CWA COMPARED TO THE WEST AND
NORTH...ALSO SEEN IN THE GFS...LOWERING CONFIDENCE IN A NEEDED
SOAKING RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE KEPT POPS IN
THE MID TO HIGH CHANCE RANGE THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.

AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS INTO SATURDAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH
12Z SUNDAY. MADE SOME MINOR RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE
ADJUSTMENTS FOR LOWS AND HOURLY TEMPS EACH NIGHT. AS FOR POPS...
ENDED UP A BIT HIGHER THAN A BLEND OF THE DRIER MET AND WETTER MAV
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH AN EXAGGERATED DIURNAL CYCLE
FOR THE HOURLY POPS/WX GRIDS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AND MORE OF
A SYNOPTIC DRIVEN POP GRID FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

BASED ON MODEL TRENDS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...WENT AHEAD AND MADE
SOME FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL INVOLVE MUCH LESS RAIN CHANCES.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...ON SUNDAY...A VORT MAX WILL BE LIFTING
NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY INTO INDIANA AND OHIO. THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE SOME GOOD DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH IT TO PRODUCE GOOD
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME STORMS OVER THESE AREAS.
HOWEVER...THIS FORCING JUST GRAZES THE BLUEGRASS REGION OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY...WITH MOST OF THE FORCING STAYING TO OUR NORTH.
HOWEVER...THIS WAVE WILL SEND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA AND WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ON
SUNDAY...WE COULD SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE
BOUNDARY PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE DAY. STILL PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITY
FOR THE INSTABILITY TO NOT MATERIALIZE AND WE END UP DRIER THAN
EXPECTED.  SAFE TO SAY...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON RAIN CHANCES ON
SUNDAY. IN FACT...THE GFS GUIDANCE HAS BECOME MUCH MORE PESSIMISTIC
ON RAIN CHANCES ON SUNDAY. ECMWF REMAIN A BIT SLOWER WITH THIS WAVE
AND FRONT...WHICH WOULD PROVIDE BETTER SUPPORT FOR RAIN ON SUNDAY IF
THE FRONT CAN STALL OVER OUR REGION.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT
SOUTH AND EAST...WITH PERHAPS SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
LINGERING INTO MONDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...MODELS
ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON DRY WEATHER FROM LATE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. THIS WARRANTS REMOVING RAIN CHANCES FROM MONDAY NIGHT
ONWARD.  AS THE HIGH SETTLES EAST BY THURSDAY...SOME RETURN FLOW MAY
DEVELOP WITH SOME MOISTURE RETURNING...WHICH COULD BRING BACK THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
REGARDLESS...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.  A BRIEF COOL DOWN...WITH LOWER HUMIDITIES WILL BE SEEN EARLY
IN THE COMING WEEK BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL BY MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH
HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE HOUR OR SO
THEN WANE AFTER SUNSET. THIS WARRANTS KEEPING VCTS AT MOST OF THE
TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 02Z. ONCE THE CONVECTION DISSIPATES SOME
PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE VALLEYS AFTER 06Z
AFFECTING MOST OF THE TAF SITES WITH SOME MVFR VIS. IFR VIS MAY
ALSO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN LOCATIONS WHERE IT
RAINED...PARTICULARLY THE SJS...SME AND LOZ TAF SITES.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY WITH VCTS AGAIN INCLUDED. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...PICKING UP AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JVM/GREIF




000
FXUS63 KJKL 292346
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
746 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. THE MOST PROMINENT SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE CURRENTLY IMPACTING KNOTT/FLOYD/JOHNSON COUNTIES AND
POINTS EAST...WHERE SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVE COLLIDED
TOGETHER. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. IN TERMS
OF THE FORECAST...GRIDS APPEAR ON TRACK SO ONLY MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMP GRIDS TO REFLECT MOST RECENT OBS. SENT
UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER FAR EASTERN
KENTUCKY WHILE LOW PRESSURE IS FOUND TO THE WEST OF THE AREA.
BETWEEN THESE...A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR IS SUPPORTING WARM
TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS. WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES THE
INSTABILITY WAS SUFFICIENT TO KICK OFF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
THIS CONVECTION IS FAVORING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE A
BIT MORE SUNSHINE WAS SEEN EARLIER IN THE DAY AND DEWPOINTS WERE
HIGHER. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES MADE IT INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S
BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION KNOCKED THEM BACK INTO THE 70S...FOR A
TIME...IN MANY LOCATIONS. WINDS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY FROM THE
SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS ACROSS THE AREA WHILE DEWPOINTS MADE IT INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 60S IN THE WEST...BUT FELL INTO THE UPPER 50S
IN THE FAR EAST...CLOSER TO THE HEART OF THE HIGH PRESSURE.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL SHOW THE WEAK SOUTHEAST RIDGE
SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST IN THE FACE OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE ENERGY FROM THIS WILL MOVE INTO KENTUCKY
ON SATURDAY AND PASS THROUGH THE STATE BY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
ITS CORE PASSING BY TO THE NORTHWEST. IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS SHOULD FAVOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
NAM12 AND HRRR MODELS FAVORED FOR SPECIFICS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE SCATTERED CONVECTION SETTLING
DOWN AFTER SUNSET ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPING LATER IN THE NIGHT...BECOMING LOCALLY DENSE IN THE
VALLEYS TOWARD DAWN WITH MILD AND MUGGY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW PASSING
THROUGH SOUTHERN INDIANA SATURDAY WILL BRING A THREAT OF STORMS
AGAIN FOR THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
AND OVER THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THE GFS HAS THE BEST TIMING
AND PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY.
AND WAS USED AS A TEMPLATE THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...THE
NAM12 AND ECMWF SPLIT THE FRONT MOVING IT THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING...TAKING THE MAIN LOW
INTO OHIO AND BYPASSING THIS PART OF THE STATE TO THE NORTH. THIS
TRANSITION MAY LIMIT THE QPF OVER THE CWA COMPARED TO THE WEST AND
NORTH...ALSO SEEN IN THE GFS...LOWERING CONFIDENCE IN A NEEDED
SOAKING RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE KEPT POPS IN
THE MID TO HIGH CHANCE RANGE THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.

AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS INTO SATURDAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH
12Z SUNDAY. MADE SOME MINOR RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE
ADJUSTMENTS FOR LOWS AND HOURLY TEMPS EACH NIGHT. AS FOR POPS...
ENDED UP A BIT HIGHER THAN A BLEND OF THE DRIER MET AND WETTER MAV
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH AN EXAGGERATED DIURNAL CYCLE
FOR THE HOURLY POPS/WX GRIDS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AND MORE OF
A SYNOPTIC DRIVEN POP GRID FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

BASED ON MODEL TRENDS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...WENT AHEAD AND MADE
SOME FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL INVOLVE MUCH LESS RAIN CHANCES.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...ON SUNDAY...A VORT MAX WILL BE LIFTING
NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY INTO INDIANA AND OHIO. THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE SOME GOOD DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH IT TO PRODUCE GOOD
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME STORMS OVER THESE AREAS.
HOWEVER...THIS FORCING JUST GRAZES THE BLUEGRASS REGION OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY...WITH MOST OF THE FORCING STAYING TO OUR NORTH.
HOWEVER...THIS WAVE WILL SEND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA AND WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ON
SUNDAY...WE COULD SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE
BOUNDARY PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE DAY. STILL PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITY
FOR THE INSTABILITY TO NOT MATERIALIZE AND WE END UP DRIER THAN
EXPECTED.  SAFE TO SAY...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON RAIN CHANCES ON
SUNDAY. IN FACT...THE GFS GUIDANCE HAS BECOME MUCH MORE PESSIMISTIC
ON RAIN CHANCES ON SUNDAY. ECMWF REMAIN A BIT SLOWER WITH THIS WAVE
AND FRONT...WHICH WOULD PROVIDE BETTER SUPPORT FOR RAIN ON SUNDAY IF
THE FRONT CAN STALL OVER OUR REGION.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT
SOUTH AND EAST...WITH PERHAPS SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
LINGERING INTO MONDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...MODELS
ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON DRY WEATHER FROM LATE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. THIS WARRANTS REMOVING RAIN CHANCES FROM MONDAY NIGHT
ONWARD.  AS THE HIGH SETTLES EAST BY THURSDAY...SOME RETURN FLOW MAY
DEVELOP WITH SOME MOISTURE RETURNING...WHICH COULD BRING BACK THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
REGARDLESS...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.  A BRIEF COOL DOWN...WITH LOWER HUMIDITIES WILL BE SEEN EARLY
IN THE COMING WEEK BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL BY MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH
HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE HOUR OR SO
THEN WANE AFTER SUNSET. THIS WARRANTS KEEPING VCTS AT MOST OF THE
TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 02Z. ONCE THE CONVECTION DISSIPATES SOME
PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE VALLEYS AFTER 06Z
AFFECTING MOST OF THE TAF SITES WITH SOME MVFR VIS. IFR VIS MAY
ALSO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN LOCATIONS WHERE IT
RAINED...PARTICULARLY THE SJS...SME AND LOZ TAF SITES.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY WITH VCTS AGAIN INCLUDED. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...PICKING UP AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JVM/GREIF





000
FXUS63 KJKL 292346
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
746 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. THE MOST PROMINENT SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE CURRENTLY IMPACTING KNOTT/FLOYD/JOHNSON COUNTIES AND
POINTS EAST...WHERE SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVE COLLIDED
TOGETHER. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. IN TERMS
OF THE FORECAST...GRIDS APPEAR ON TRACK SO ONLY MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMP GRIDS TO REFLECT MOST RECENT OBS. SENT
UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER FAR EASTERN
KENTUCKY WHILE LOW PRESSURE IS FOUND TO THE WEST OF THE AREA.
BETWEEN THESE...A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR IS SUPPORTING WARM
TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS. WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES THE
INSTABILITY WAS SUFFICIENT TO KICK OFF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
THIS CONVECTION IS FAVORING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE A
BIT MORE SUNSHINE WAS SEEN EARLIER IN THE DAY AND DEWPOINTS WERE
HIGHER. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES MADE IT INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S
BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION KNOCKED THEM BACK INTO THE 70S...FOR A
TIME...IN MANY LOCATIONS. WINDS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY FROM THE
SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS ACROSS THE AREA WHILE DEWPOINTS MADE IT INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 60S IN THE WEST...BUT FELL INTO THE UPPER 50S
IN THE FAR EAST...CLOSER TO THE HEART OF THE HIGH PRESSURE.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL SHOW THE WEAK SOUTHEAST RIDGE
SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST IN THE FACE OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE ENERGY FROM THIS WILL MOVE INTO KENTUCKY
ON SATURDAY AND PASS THROUGH THE STATE BY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
ITS CORE PASSING BY TO THE NORTHWEST. IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS SHOULD FAVOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
NAM12 AND HRRR MODELS FAVORED FOR SPECIFICS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE SCATTERED CONVECTION SETTLING
DOWN AFTER SUNSET ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPING LATER IN THE NIGHT...BECOMING LOCALLY DENSE IN THE
VALLEYS TOWARD DAWN WITH MILD AND MUGGY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW PASSING
THROUGH SOUTHERN INDIANA SATURDAY WILL BRING A THREAT OF STORMS
AGAIN FOR THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
AND OVER THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THE GFS HAS THE BEST TIMING
AND PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY.
AND WAS USED AS A TEMPLATE THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...THE
NAM12 AND ECMWF SPLIT THE FRONT MOVING IT THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING...TAKING THE MAIN LOW
INTO OHIO AND BYPASSING THIS PART OF THE STATE TO THE NORTH. THIS
TRANSITION MAY LIMIT THE QPF OVER THE CWA COMPARED TO THE WEST AND
NORTH...ALSO SEEN IN THE GFS...LOWERING CONFIDENCE IN A NEEDED
SOAKING RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE KEPT POPS IN
THE MID TO HIGH CHANCE RANGE THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.

AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS INTO SATURDAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH
12Z SUNDAY. MADE SOME MINOR RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE
ADJUSTMENTS FOR LOWS AND HOURLY TEMPS EACH NIGHT. AS FOR POPS...
ENDED UP A BIT HIGHER THAN A BLEND OF THE DRIER MET AND WETTER MAV
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH AN EXAGGERATED DIURNAL CYCLE
FOR THE HOURLY POPS/WX GRIDS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AND MORE OF
A SYNOPTIC DRIVEN POP GRID FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

BASED ON MODEL TRENDS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...WENT AHEAD AND MADE
SOME FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL INVOLVE MUCH LESS RAIN CHANCES.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...ON SUNDAY...A VORT MAX WILL BE LIFTING
NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY INTO INDIANA AND OHIO. THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE SOME GOOD DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH IT TO PRODUCE GOOD
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME STORMS OVER THESE AREAS.
HOWEVER...THIS FORCING JUST GRAZES THE BLUEGRASS REGION OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY...WITH MOST OF THE FORCING STAYING TO OUR NORTH.
HOWEVER...THIS WAVE WILL SEND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA AND WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ON
SUNDAY...WE COULD SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE
BOUNDARY PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE DAY. STILL PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITY
FOR THE INSTABILITY TO NOT MATERIALIZE AND WE END UP DRIER THAN
EXPECTED.  SAFE TO SAY...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON RAIN CHANCES ON
SUNDAY. IN FACT...THE GFS GUIDANCE HAS BECOME MUCH MORE PESSIMISTIC
ON RAIN CHANCES ON SUNDAY. ECMWF REMAIN A BIT SLOWER WITH THIS WAVE
AND FRONT...WHICH WOULD PROVIDE BETTER SUPPORT FOR RAIN ON SUNDAY IF
THE FRONT CAN STALL OVER OUR REGION.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT
SOUTH AND EAST...WITH PERHAPS SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
LINGERING INTO MONDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...MODELS
ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON DRY WEATHER FROM LATE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. THIS WARRANTS REMOVING RAIN CHANCES FROM MONDAY NIGHT
ONWARD.  AS THE HIGH SETTLES EAST BY THURSDAY...SOME RETURN FLOW MAY
DEVELOP WITH SOME MOISTURE RETURNING...WHICH COULD BRING BACK THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
REGARDLESS...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.  A BRIEF COOL DOWN...WITH LOWER HUMIDITIES WILL BE SEEN EARLY
IN THE COMING WEEK BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL BY MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH
HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE HOUR OR SO
THEN WANE AFTER SUNSET. THIS WARRANTS KEEPING VCTS AT MOST OF THE
TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 02Z. ONCE THE CONVECTION DISSIPATES SOME
PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE VALLEYS AFTER 06Z
AFFECTING MOST OF THE TAF SITES WITH SOME MVFR VIS. IFR VIS MAY
ALSO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN LOCATIONS WHERE IT
RAINED...PARTICULARLY THE SJS...SME AND LOZ TAF SITES.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY WITH VCTS AGAIN INCLUDED. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...PICKING UP AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JVM/GREIF





000
FXUS63 KJKL 292346
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
746 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. THE MOST PROMINENT SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE CURRENTLY IMPACTING KNOTT/FLOYD/JOHNSON COUNTIES AND
POINTS EAST...WHERE SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVE COLLIDED
TOGETHER. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. IN TERMS
OF THE FORECAST...GRIDS APPEAR ON TRACK SO ONLY MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMP GRIDS TO REFLECT MOST RECENT OBS. SENT
UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER FAR EASTERN
KENTUCKY WHILE LOW PRESSURE IS FOUND TO THE WEST OF THE AREA.
BETWEEN THESE...A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR IS SUPPORTING WARM
TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS. WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES THE
INSTABILITY WAS SUFFICIENT TO KICK OFF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
THIS CONVECTION IS FAVORING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE A
BIT MORE SUNSHINE WAS SEEN EARLIER IN THE DAY AND DEWPOINTS WERE
HIGHER. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES MADE IT INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S
BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION KNOCKED THEM BACK INTO THE 70S...FOR A
TIME...IN MANY LOCATIONS. WINDS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY FROM THE
SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS ACROSS THE AREA WHILE DEWPOINTS MADE IT INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 60S IN THE WEST...BUT FELL INTO THE UPPER 50S
IN THE FAR EAST...CLOSER TO THE HEART OF THE HIGH PRESSURE.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL SHOW THE WEAK SOUTHEAST RIDGE
SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST IN THE FACE OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE ENERGY FROM THIS WILL MOVE INTO KENTUCKY
ON SATURDAY AND PASS THROUGH THE STATE BY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
ITS CORE PASSING BY TO THE NORTHWEST. IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS SHOULD FAVOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
NAM12 AND HRRR MODELS FAVORED FOR SPECIFICS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE SCATTERED CONVECTION SETTLING
DOWN AFTER SUNSET ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPING LATER IN THE NIGHT...BECOMING LOCALLY DENSE IN THE
VALLEYS TOWARD DAWN WITH MILD AND MUGGY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW PASSING
THROUGH SOUTHERN INDIANA SATURDAY WILL BRING A THREAT OF STORMS
AGAIN FOR THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
AND OVER THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THE GFS HAS THE BEST TIMING
AND PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY.
AND WAS USED AS A TEMPLATE THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...THE
NAM12 AND ECMWF SPLIT THE FRONT MOVING IT THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING...TAKING THE MAIN LOW
INTO OHIO AND BYPASSING THIS PART OF THE STATE TO THE NORTH. THIS
TRANSITION MAY LIMIT THE QPF OVER THE CWA COMPARED TO THE WEST AND
NORTH...ALSO SEEN IN THE GFS...LOWERING CONFIDENCE IN A NEEDED
SOAKING RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE KEPT POPS IN
THE MID TO HIGH CHANCE RANGE THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.

AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS INTO SATURDAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH
12Z SUNDAY. MADE SOME MINOR RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE
ADJUSTMENTS FOR LOWS AND HOURLY TEMPS EACH NIGHT. AS FOR POPS...
ENDED UP A BIT HIGHER THAN A BLEND OF THE DRIER MET AND WETTER MAV
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH AN EXAGGERATED DIURNAL CYCLE
FOR THE HOURLY POPS/WX GRIDS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AND MORE OF
A SYNOPTIC DRIVEN POP GRID FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

BASED ON MODEL TRENDS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...WENT AHEAD AND MADE
SOME FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL INVOLVE MUCH LESS RAIN CHANCES.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...ON SUNDAY...A VORT MAX WILL BE LIFTING
NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY INTO INDIANA AND OHIO. THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE SOME GOOD DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH IT TO PRODUCE GOOD
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME STORMS OVER THESE AREAS.
HOWEVER...THIS FORCING JUST GRAZES THE BLUEGRASS REGION OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY...WITH MOST OF THE FORCING STAYING TO OUR NORTH.
HOWEVER...THIS WAVE WILL SEND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA AND WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ON
SUNDAY...WE COULD SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE
BOUNDARY PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE DAY. STILL PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITY
FOR THE INSTABILITY TO NOT MATERIALIZE AND WE END UP DRIER THAN
EXPECTED.  SAFE TO SAY...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON RAIN CHANCES ON
SUNDAY. IN FACT...THE GFS GUIDANCE HAS BECOME MUCH MORE PESSIMISTIC
ON RAIN CHANCES ON SUNDAY. ECMWF REMAIN A BIT SLOWER WITH THIS WAVE
AND FRONT...WHICH WOULD PROVIDE BETTER SUPPORT FOR RAIN ON SUNDAY IF
THE FRONT CAN STALL OVER OUR REGION.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT
SOUTH AND EAST...WITH PERHAPS SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
LINGERING INTO MONDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...MODELS
ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON DRY WEATHER FROM LATE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. THIS WARRANTS REMOVING RAIN CHANCES FROM MONDAY NIGHT
ONWARD.  AS THE HIGH SETTLES EAST BY THURSDAY...SOME RETURN FLOW MAY
DEVELOP WITH SOME MOISTURE RETURNING...WHICH COULD BRING BACK THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
REGARDLESS...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.  A BRIEF COOL DOWN...WITH LOWER HUMIDITIES WILL BE SEEN EARLY
IN THE COMING WEEK BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL BY MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH
HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE HOUR OR SO
THEN WANE AFTER SUNSET. THIS WARRANTS KEEPING VCTS AT MOST OF THE
TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 02Z. ONCE THE CONVECTION DISSIPATES SOME
PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE VALLEYS AFTER 06Z
AFFECTING MOST OF THE TAF SITES WITH SOME MVFR VIS. IFR VIS MAY
ALSO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN LOCATIONS WHERE IT
RAINED...PARTICULARLY THE SJS...SME AND LOZ TAF SITES.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY WITH VCTS AGAIN INCLUDED. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...PICKING UP AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JVM/GREIF




000
FXUS63 KJKL 292346
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
746 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. THE MOST PROMINENT SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE CURRENTLY IMPACTING KNOTT/FLOYD/JOHNSON COUNTIES AND
POINTS EAST...WHERE SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVE COLLIDED
TOGETHER. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. IN TERMS
OF THE FORECAST...GRIDS APPEAR ON TRACK SO ONLY MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMP GRIDS TO REFLECT MOST RECENT OBS. SENT
UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER FAR EASTERN
KENTUCKY WHILE LOW PRESSURE IS FOUND TO THE WEST OF THE AREA.
BETWEEN THESE...A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR IS SUPPORTING WARM
TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS. WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES THE
INSTABILITY WAS SUFFICIENT TO KICK OFF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
THIS CONVECTION IS FAVORING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE A
BIT MORE SUNSHINE WAS SEEN EARLIER IN THE DAY AND DEWPOINTS WERE
HIGHER. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES MADE IT INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S
BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION KNOCKED THEM BACK INTO THE 70S...FOR A
TIME...IN MANY LOCATIONS. WINDS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY FROM THE
SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS ACROSS THE AREA WHILE DEWPOINTS MADE IT INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 60S IN THE WEST...BUT FELL INTO THE UPPER 50S
IN THE FAR EAST...CLOSER TO THE HEART OF THE HIGH PRESSURE.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL SHOW THE WEAK SOUTHEAST RIDGE
SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST IN THE FACE OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE ENERGY FROM THIS WILL MOVE INTO KENTUCKY
ON SATURDAY AND PASS THROUGH THE STATE BY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
ITS CORE PASSING BY TO THE NORTHWEST. IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS SHOULD FAVOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
NAM12 AND HRRR MODELS FAVORED FOR SPECIFICS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE SCATTERED CONVECTION SETTLING
DOWN AFTER SUNSET ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPING LATER IN THE NIGHT...BECOMING LOCALLY DENSE IN THE
VALLEYS TOWARD DAWN WITH MILD AND MUGGY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW PASSING
THROUGH SOUTHERN INDIANA SATURDAY WILL BRING A THREAT OF STORMS
AGAIN FOR THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
AND OVER THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THE GFS HAS THE BEST TIMING
AND PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY.
AND WAS USED AS A TEMPLATE THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...THE
NAM12 AND ECMWF SPLIT THE FRONT MOVING IT THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING...TAKING THE MAIN LOW
INTO OHIO AND BYPASSING THIS PART OF THE STATE TO THE NORTH. THIS
TRANSITION MAY LIMIT THE QPF OVER THE CWA COMPARED TO THE WEST AND
NORTH...ALSO SEEN IN THE GFS...LOWERING CONFIDENCE IN A NEEDED
SOAKING RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE KEPT POPS IN
THE MID TO HIGH CHANCE RANGE THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.

AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS INTO SATURDAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH
12Z SUNDAY. MADE SOME MINOR RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE
ADJUSTMENTS FOR LOWS AND HOURLY TEMPS EACH NIGHT. AS FOR POPS...
ENDED UP A BIT HIGHER THAN A BLEND OF THE DRIER MET AND WETTER MAV
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH AN EXAGGERATED DIURNAL CYCLE
FOR THE HOURLY POPS/WX GRIDS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AND MORE OF
A SYNOPTIC DRIVEN POP GRID FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

BASED ON MODEL TRENDS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...WENT AHEAD AND MADE
SOME FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL INVOLVE MUCH LESS RAIN CHANCES.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...ON SUNDAY...A VORT MAX WILL BE LIFTING
NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY INTO INDIANA AND OHIO. THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE SOME GOOD DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH IT TO PRODUCE GOOD
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME STORMS OVER THESE AREAS.
HOWEVER...THIS FORCING JUST GRAZES THE BLUEGRASS REGION OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY...WITH MOST OF THE FORCING STAYING TO OUR NORTH.
HOWEVER...THIS WAVE WILL SEND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA AND WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ON
SUNDAY...WE COULD SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE
BOUNDARY PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE DAY. STILL PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITY
FOR THE INSTABILITY TO NOT MATERIALIZE AND WE END UP DRIER THAN
EXPECTED.  SAFE TO SAY...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON RAIN CHANCES ON
SUNDAY. IN FACT...THE GFS GUIDANCE HAS BECOME MUCH MORE PESSIMISTIC
ON RAIN CHANCES ON SUNDAY. ECMWF REMAIN A BIT SLOWER WITH THIS WAVE
AND FRONT...WHICH WOULD PROVIDE BETTER SUPPORT FOR RAIN ON SUNDAY IF
THE FRONT CAN STALL OVER OUR REGION.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT
SOUTH AND EAST...WITH PERHAPS SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
LINGERING INTO MONDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...MODELS
ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON DRY WEATHER FROM LATE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. THIS WARRANTS REMOVING RAIN CHANCES FROM MONDAY NIGHT
ONWARD.  AS THE HIGH SETTLES EAST BY THURSDAY...SOME RETURN FLOW MAY
DEVELOP WITH SOME MOISTURE RETURNING...WHICH COULD BRING BACK THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
REGARDLESS...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.  A BRIEF COOL DOWN...WITH LOWER HUMIDITIES WILL BE SEEN EARLY
IN THE COMING WEEK BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL BY MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH
HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE HOUR OR SO
THEN WANE AFTER SUNSET. THIS WARRANTS KEEPING VCTS AT MOST OF THE
TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 02Z. ONCE THE CONVECTION DISSIPATES SOME
PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE VALLEYS AFTER 06Z
AFFECTING MOST OF THE TAF SITES WITH SOME MVFR VIS. IFR VIS MAY
ALSO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN LOCATIONS WHERE IT
RAINED...PARTICULARLY THE SJS...SME AND LOZ TAF SITES.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY WITH VCTS AGAIN INCLUDED. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...PICKING UP AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JVM/GREIF




000
FXUS63 KJKL 292233
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
633 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. THE MOST PROMINENT SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE CURRENTLY IMPACTING KNOTT/FLOYD/JOHNSON COUNTIES AND
POINTS EAST...WHERE SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVE COLLIDED
TOGETHER. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. IN TERMS
OF THE FORECAST...GRIDS APPEAR ON TRACK SO ONLY MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMP GRIDS TO REFLECT MOST RECENT OBS. SENT
UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER FAR EASTERN
KENTUCKY WHILE LOW PRESSURE IS FOUND TO THE WEST OF THE AREA.
BETWEEN THESE...A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR IS SUPPORTING WARM
TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS. WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES THE
INSTABILITY WAS SUFFICIENT TO KICK OFF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
THIS CONVECTION IS FAVORING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE A
BIT MORE SUNSHINE WAS SEEN EARLIER IN THE DAY AND DEWPOINTS WERE
HIGHER. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES MADE IT INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S
BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION KNOCKED THEM BACK INTO THE 70S...FOR A
TIME...IN MANY LOCATIONS. WINDS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY FROM THE
SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS ACROSS THE AREA WHILE DEWPOINTS MADE IT INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 60S IN THE WEST...BUT FELL INTO THE UPPER 50S
IN THE FAR EAST...CLOSER TO THE HEART OF THE HIGH PRESSURE.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL SHOW THE WEAK SOUTHEAST RIDGE
SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST IN THE FACE OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE ENERGY FROM THIS WILL MOVE INTO KENTUCKY
ON SATURDAY AND PASS THROUGH THE STATE BY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
ITS CORE PASSING BY TO THE NORTHWEST. IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS SHOULD FAVOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
NAM12 AND HRRR MODELS FAVORED FOR SPECIFICS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE SCATTERED CONVECTION SETTLING
DOWN AFTER SUNSET ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPING LATER IN THE NIGHT...BECOMING LOCALLY DENSE IN THE
VALLEYS TOWARD DAWN WITH MILD AND MUGGY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW PASSING
THROUGH SOUTHERN INDIANA SATURDAY WILL BRING A THREAT OF STORMS
AGAIN FOR THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
AND OVER THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THE GFS HAS THE BEST TIMING
AND PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY.
AND WAS USED AS A TEMPLATE THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...THE
NAM12 AND ECMWF SPLIT THE FRONT MOVING IT THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING...TAKING THE MAIN LOW
INTO OHIO AND BYPASSING THIS PART OF THE STATE TO THE NORTH. THIS
TRANSITION MAY LIMIT THE QPF OVER THE CWA COMPARED TO THE WEST AND
NORTH...ALSO SEEN IN THE GFS...LOWERING CONFIDENCE IN A NEEDED
SOAKING RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE KEPT POPS IN
THE MID TO HIGH CHANCE RANGE THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.

AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS INTO SATURDAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH
12Z SUNDAY. MADE SOME MINOR RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE
ADJUSTMENTS FOR LOWS AND HOURLY TEMPS EACH NIGHT. AS FOR POPS...
ENDED UP A BIT HIGHER THAN A BLEND OF THE DRIER MET AND WETTER MAV
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH AN EXAGGERATED DIURNAL CYCLE
FOR THE HOURLY POPS/WX GRIDS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AND MORE OF
A SYNOPTIC DRIVEN POP GRID FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

BASED ON MODEL TRENDS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...WENT AHEAD AND MADE
SOME FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL INVOLVE MUCH LESS RAIN CHANCES.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...ON SUNDAY...A VORT MAX WILL BE LIFTING
NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY INTO INDIANA AND OHIO. THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE SOME GOOD DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH IT TO PRODUCE GOOD
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME STORMS OVER THESE AREAS.
HOWEVER...THIS FORCING JUST GRAZES THE BLUEGRASS REGION OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY...WITH MOST OF THE FORCING STAYING TO OUR NORTH.
HOWEVER...THIS WAVE WILL SEND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA AND WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ON
SUNDAY...WE COULD SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE
BOUNDARY PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE DAY. STILL PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITY
FOR THE INSTABILITY TO NOT MATERIALIZE AND WE END UP DRIER THAN
EXPECTED.  SAFE TO SAY...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON RAIN CHANCES ON
SUNDAY. IN FACT...THE GFS GUIDANCE HAS BECOME MUCH MORE PESSIMISTIC
ON RAIN CHANCES ON SUNDAY. ECMWF REMAIN A BIT SLOWER WITH THIS WAVE
AND FRONT...WHICH WOULD PROVIDE BETTER SUPPORT FOR RAIN ON SUNDAY IF
THE FRONT CAN STALL OVER OUR REGION.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT
SOUTH AND EAST...WITH PERHAPS SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
LINGERING INTO MONDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...MODELS
ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON DRY WEATHER FROM LATE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. THIS WARRANTS REMOVING RAIN CHANCES FROM MONDAY NIGHT
ONWARD.  AS THE HIGH SETTLES EAST BY THURSDAY...SOME RETURN FLOW MAY
DEVELOP WITH SOME MOISTURE RETURNING...WHICH COULD BRING BACK THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
REGARDLESS...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.  A BRIEF COOL DOWN...WITH LOWER HUMIDITIES WILL BE SEEN EARLY
IN THE COMING WEEK BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL BY MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH
HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL NOT TAPER OFF MUCH UNTIL EARLY THIS
EVENING...WARRANTING AT LEAST A VCTS MENTION AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS. ONCE THE CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATES FOLLOWING DUSK SOME
PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOPING AGAIN IN THE VALLEYS AFTER 06Z
AFFECTING MOST OF THE TAF SITES WITH SOME MVFR VIS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON ON
SATURDAY WITH VCTS AGAIN INCLUDED. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PEAK IN
THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...OUTSIDE OF ANY STORM...
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...PICKING UP AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF




000
FXUS63 KJKL 291930
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
330 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER FAR EASTERN
KENTUCKY WHILE LOW PRESSURE IS FOUND TO THE WEST OF THE AREA.
BETWEEN THESE...A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR IS SUPPORTING WARM
TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS. WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES THE
INSTABILITY WAS SUFFICIENT TO KICK OFF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
THIS CONVECTION IS FAVORING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE A
BIT MORE SUNSHINE WAS SEEN EARLIER IN THE DAY AND DEWPOINTS WERE
HIGHER. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES MADE IT INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S
BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION KNOCKED THEM BACK INTO THE 70S...FOR A
TIME...IN MANY LOCATIONS. WINDS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY FROM THE
SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS ACROSS THE AREA WHILE DEWPOINTS MADE IT INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 60S IN THE WEST...BUT FELL INTO THE UPPER 50S
IN THE FAR EAST...CLOSER TO THE HEART OF THE HIGH PRESSURE.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL SHOW THE WEAK SOUTHEAST RIDGE
SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST IN THE FACE OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE ENERGY FROM THIS WILL MOVE INTO KENTUCKY
ON SATURDAY AND PASS THROUGH THE STATE BY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
ITS CORE PASSING BY TO THE NORTHWEST. IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS SHOULD FAVOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
NAM12 AND HRRR MODELS FAVORED FOR SPECIFICS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE SCATTERED CONVECTION SETTLING
DOWN AFTER SUNSET ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPING LATER IN THE NIGHT...BECOMING LOCALLY DENSE IN THE
VALLEYS TOWARD DAWN WITH MILD AND MUGGY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW PASSING
THROUGH SOUTHERN INDIANA SATURDAY WILL BRING A THREAT OF STORMS
AGAIN FOR THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
AND OVER THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THE GFS HAS THE BEST TIMING
AND PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY.
AND WAS USED AS A TEMPLATE THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...THE
NAM12 AND ECMWF SPLIT THE FRONT MOVING IT THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING...TAKING THE MAIN LOW
INTO OHIO AND BYPASSING THIS PART OF THE STATE TO THE NORTH. THIS
TRANSITION MAY LIMIT THE QPF OVER THE CWA COMPARED TO THE WEST AND
NORTH...ALSO SEEN IN THE GFS...LOWERING CONFIDENCE IN A NEEDED
SOAKING RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE KEPT POPS IN
THE MID TO HIGH CHANCE RANGE THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.

AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS INTO SATURDAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH
12Z SUNDAY. MADE SOME MINOR RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE
ADJUSTMENTS FOR LOWS AND HOURLY TEMPS EACH NIGHT. AS FOR POPS...
ENDED UP A BIT HIGHER THAN A BLEND OF THE DRIER MET AND WETTER MAV
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH AN EXAGGERATED DIURNAL CYCLE
FOR THE HOURLY POPS/WX GRIDS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AND MORE OF
A SYNOPTIC DRIVEN POP GRID FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

BASED ON MODEL TRENDS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...WENT AHEAD AND MADE
SOME FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL INVOLVE MUCH LESS RAIN CHANCES.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...ON SUNDAY...A VORT MAX WILL BE LIFTING
NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY INTO INDIANA AND OHIO. THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE SOME GOOD DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH IT TO PRODUCE GOOD
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME STORMS OVER THESE AREAS.
HOWEVER...THIS FORCING JUST GRAZES THE BLUEGRASS REGION OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY...WITH MOST OF THE FORCING STAYING TO OUR NORTH.
HOWEVER...THIS WAVE WILL SEND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA AND WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ON
SUNDAY...WE COULD SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE
BOUNDARY PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE DAY. STILL PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITY
FOR THE INSTABILITY TO NOT MATERIALIZE AND WE END UP DRIER THAN
EXPECTED.  SAFE TO SAY...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON RAIN CHANCES ON
SUNDAY. IN FACT...THE GFS GUIDANCE HAS BECOME MUCH MORE PESSIMISTIC
ON RAIN CHANCES ON SUNDAY. ECMWF REMAIN A BIT SLOWER WITH THIS WAVE
AND FRONT...WHICH WOULD PROVIDE BETTER SUPPORT FOR RAIN ON SUNDAY IF
THE FRONT CAN STALL OVER OUR REGION.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT
SOUTH AND EAST...WITH PERHAPS SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
LINGERING INTO MONDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...MODELS
ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON DRY WEATHER FROM LATE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. THIS WARRANTS REMOVING RAIN CHANCES FROM MONDAY NIGHT
ONWARD.  AS THE HIGH SETTLES EAST BY THURSDAY...SOME RETURN FLOW MAY
DEVELOP WITH SOME MOISTURE RETURNING...WHICH COULD BRING BACK THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
REGARDLESS...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.  A BRIEF COOL DOWN...WITH LOWER HUMIDITIES WILL BE SEEN EARLY
IN THE COMING WEEK BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL BY MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH
HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL NOT TAPER OFF MUCH UNTIL EARLY THIS
EVENING...WARRANTING AT LEAST A VCTS MENTION AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS. ONCE THE CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATES FOLLOWING DUSK SOME
PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOPING AGAIN IN THE VALLEYS AFTER 06Z
AFFECTING MOST OF THE TAF SITES WITH SOME MVFR VIS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON ON
SATURDAY WITH VCTS AGAIN INCLUDED. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PEAK IN
THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...OUTSIDE OF ANY STORM...
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...PICKING UP AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF





000
FXUS63 KJKL 291930
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
330 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER FAR EASTERN
KENTUCKY WHILE LOW PRESSURE IS FOUND TO THE WEST OF THE AREA.
BETWEEN THESE...A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR IS SUPPORTING WARM
TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS. WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES THE
INSTABILITY WAS SUFFICIENT TO KICK OFF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
THIS CONVECTION IS FAVORING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE A
BIT MORE SUNSHINE WAS SEEN EARLIER IN THE DAY AND DEWPOINTS WERE
HIGHER. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES MADE IT INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S
BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION KNOCKED THEM BACK INTO THE 70S...FOR A
TIME...IN MANY LOCATIONS. WINDS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY FROM THE
SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS ACROSS THE AREA WHILE DEWPOINTS MADE IT INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 60S IN THE WEST...BUT FELL INTO THE UPPER 50S
IN THE FAR EAST...CLOSER TO THE HEART OF THE HIGH PRESSURE.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL SHOW THE WEAK SOUTHEAST RIDGE
SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST IN THE FACE OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE ENERGY FROM THIS WILL MOVE INTO KENTUCKY
ON SATURDAY AND PASS THROUGH THE STATE BY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
ITS CORE PASSING BY TO THE NORTHWEST. IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS SHOULD FAVOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
NAM12 AND HRRR MODELS FAVORED FOR SPECIFICS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE SCATTERED CONVECTION SETTLING
DOWN AFTER SUNSET ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPING LATER IN THE NIGHT...BECOMING LOCALLY DENSE IN THE
VALLEYS TOWARD DAWN WITH MILD AND MUGGY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW PASSING
THROUGH SOUTHERN INDIANA SATURDAY WILL BRING A THREAT OF STORMS
AGAIN FOR THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
AND OVER THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THE GFS HAS THE BEST TIMING
AND PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY.
AND WAS USED AS A TEMPLATE THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...THE
NAM12 AND ECMWF SPLIT THE FRONT MOVING IT THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING...TAKING THE MAIN LOW
INTO OHIO AND BYPASSING THIS PART OF THE STATE TO THE NORTH. THIS
TRANSITION MAY LIMIT THE QPF OVER THE CWA COMPARED TO THE WEST AND
NORTH...ALSO SEEN IN THE GFS...LOWERING CONFIDENCE IN A NEEDED
SOAKING RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE KEPT POPS IN
THE MID TO HIGH CHANCE RANGE THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.

AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS INTO SATURDAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH
12Z SUNDAY. MADE SOME MINOR RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE
ADJUSTMENTS FOR LOWS AND HOURLY TEMPS EACH NIGHT. AS FOR POPS...
ENDED UP A BIT HIGHER THAN A BLEND OF THE DRIER MET AND WETTER MAV
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH AN EXAGGERATED DIURNAL CYCLE
FOR THE HOURLY POPS/WX GRIDS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AND MORE OF
A SYNOPTIC DRIVEN POP GRID FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

BASED ON MODEL TRENDS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...WENT AHEAD AND MADE
SOME FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL INVOLVE MUCH LESS RAIN CHANCES.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...ON SUNDAY...A VORT MAX WILL BE LIFTING
NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY INTO INDIANA AND OHIO. THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE SOME GOOD DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH IT TO PRODUCE GOOD
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME STORMS OVER THESE AREAS.
HOWEVER...THIS FORCING JUST GRAZES THE BLUEGRASS REGION OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY...WITH MOST OF THE FORCING STAYING TO OUR NORTH.
HOWEVER...THIS WAVE WILL SEND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA AND WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ON
SUNDAY...WE COULD SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE
BOUNDARY PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE DAY. STILL PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITY
FOR THE INSTABILITY TO NOT MATERIALIZE AND WE END UP DRIER THAN
EXPECTED.  SAFE TO SAY...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON RAIN CHANCES ON
SUNDAY. IN FACT...THE GFS GUIDANCE HAS BECOME MUCH MORE PESSIMISTIC
ON RAIN CHANCES ON SUNDAY. ECMWF REMAIN A BIT SLOWER WITH THIS WAVE
AND FRONT...WHICH WOULD PROVIDE BETTER SUPPORT FOR RAIN ON SUNDAY IF
THE FRONT CAN STALL OVER OUR REGION.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT
SOUTH AND EAST...WITH PERHAPS SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
LINGERING INTO MONDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...MODELS
ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON DRY WEATHER FROM LATE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. THIS WARRANTS REMOVING RAIN CHANCES FROM MONDAY NIGHT
ONWARD.  AS THE HIGH SETTLES EAST BY THURSDAY...SOME RETURN FLOW MAY
DEVELOP WITH SOME MOISTURE RETURNING...WHICH COULD BRING BACK THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
REGARDLESS...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.  A BRIEF COOL DOWN...WITH LOWER HUMIDITIES WILL BE SEEN EARLY
IN THE COMING WEEK BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL BY MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH
HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL NOT TAPER OFF MUCH UNTIL EARLY THIS
EVENING...WARRANTING AT LEAST A VCTS MENTION AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS. ONCE THE CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATES FOLLOWING DUSK SOME
PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOPING AGAIN IN THE VALLEYS AFTER 06Z
AFFECTING MOST OF THE TAF SITES WITH SOME MVFR VIS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON ON
SATURDAY WITH VCTS AGAIN INCLUDED. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PEAK IN
THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...OUTSIDE OF ANY STORM...
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...PICKING UP AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF




000
FXUS63 KJKL 291832 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
232 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO TOUCH UP THE GRIDS PER THE LATEST T/TD OBS
AND RADAR IMAGES. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1045 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE STILL HOLDING ON OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH LOW PRESSURE OUT TO THE WEST. THE EARLIER
VALLEY FOG HAS CLEARED OUT OF THE AREA WITH MAINLY SOME MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS LEFT BEHIND...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
CWA. JUST A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA
ATTM...BUT WITH A LACK OF DEBRIS CLOUDS HINDERING DEVELOPMENT
EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD LATER TODAY WHEN COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY. THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT THE TRIGGERS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY...BUT DIFFERENTIAL HEATING SHOULD BE
ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CURRENTLY TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S MOST LOCATIONS
UNDER THE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WINDS HAVE PICKED UP A BIT FROM
THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS...COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...WHILE THE
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE STICKY MID TO UPPER 60S. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST MAINLY FOR NEAR TERM CONDITIONS AND TRENDS WHILE ALSO
REMOVING THE FOG. THE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND
WEB SERVERS WHILE A FRESHENED SET OF ZONES HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 819 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

FRESHENED UP THE TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND SKY COVER OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO JIVE BETTER WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. ALSO SLOWED THE POPS A BIT MORE...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
TRENDS IN THE HRRR MODEL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY ALIGNED NORTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER. EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS ON THE MORE HUMID SIDE OF
THE BOUNDARY...WITH THE AIR MASS NOTICEABLY MORE STICKY COMPARED
TO THE LAST FEW DAYS. A WEAK IMPULSE OR TWO WILL ONCE AGAIN PASS
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD...AND THE TROUGH ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE
TRAJECTORY OF THESE IMPULSES...HOWEVER GIVEN THE WEAKER CAP IN
PLACE AND LIKELY MORE INSTABILITY BUILDING TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...SCATTERED CONVECTION SEEMS LIKE A GOOD BET. HIGHS
WILL BE WARMER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...WITH LESS CLOUDS...GENERALLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

CONVECTION WILL DIE OFF WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING TONIGHT...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...AND PATCHY
FOG SETTING UP...PARTICULARLY AT LOCATIONS THAT SEE SUSTAINED
RAINFALL. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY ON SATURDAY...HOWEVER THERE ALSO BE DRIER AIR IN THE LOW TO
MID-LEVELS. THIS WILL KEEP MORE OF A GRADIENT OF POPS ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH BETTER STORM CHANCES NEAR I-64...AND LESSER CHANCES TO
THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S IN THE
NORTH...TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OFF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MEANWHILE...
ANOTHER AREA OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
WILL HELP TO BREAK DOWN THE OVERALL LONGWAVE TROUGHING PATTERN THAT
HAS EXISTED OVER MUCH OF THE LAST WEEK ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CONUS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...KY WILL FIND ITSELF WEDGED IN BETWEEN
THESE TWO RIDGES...WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AMPLIFYING OVER THE
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS IT BECOMES BLOCKED. EXPECT THIS
TROUGH TO FINALLY CLOSE OFF INTO A CLOSED LOW BY MONDAY
NIGHT...STAYING NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED...WHILE WEAK RIDGING SLIDES IN JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. THIS PATTERN TO OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER
ACROSS MUCH OF KY THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BE COLLOCATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE
START OF THE EXTENDED. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THIS LOW
NEWRD...ATTACHING TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EASTERN
COAST OF CANADA. AS SUCH...THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SPAN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE OF KY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...CREATING A
DRIVING FORCE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
WARM MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. AND GIVEN THE
BLOCKED NATURE OF THIS CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW...EXPECT THERE TO BE
LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT...SHIFTING ONLY SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE TN BORDER THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED. THIS SLIGHT SHIFT WILL AT LEAST ALLOW SOME INFLUENCE OF
THE DEVELOP UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

EXPECT BEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO BE ON SUNDAY...AS HAS BEEN
HIGHLIGHTED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE
BOUNDARY OVER MUCH OF THE STATE. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DIRECTIONAL
SHEER OR SPEED SHEER...AND SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOW HIGH AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...WILL OFFSET ANY OF THE HIGHER CAPE
AMOUNTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY...BUT
ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS
WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. THE BOUNDARY THEN SHIFTS
SOUTHWARD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA. THIS WILL CREATE A WIND SHIFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH
COOLER AND MORE STABLE NW FLOW TAKING HOLD. TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A
SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN THIS REGIME...AS WILL THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE. THAT BEING SAID...THE BOUNDARY WILL
STILL BE IN SUCH A CLOSE PROXIMITY THAT AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH AND SE CWA...CANNOT BE RULED
OUT EACH DAY. SO ESSENTIALLY...POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. OVERALL COVERAGE ACROSS THE CWA WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AND MORE MOISTURE IS ADVECTED INTO
THE CWA.

GIVEN DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE
SUPERBLEND OF MODELS SEEMED TO HANDLE POPS AND OTHER PARAMETERS
FAIRLY WELL. THE ONLY MAJOR ADJUSTMENT TO THE MODEL BLEND WAS TO
UNDERCUT POPS SOME DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS DUE TO LOSS OF
INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH THE SUPERBLEND 12 HOUR GRIDS ARE
JUST NOT CAPABLE OF PICKING UP ON. TEMPS...WINDS...AND CLOUD COVER
ALL SEEMED QUITE REASONABLE AND WITHIN GOOD AGREEMENT OF SURROUNDING
OFFICES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL NOT TAPER OFF MUCH UNTIL EARLY THIS
EVENING...WARRANTING AT LEAST A VCTS MENTION AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS. ONCE THE CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATES FOLLOWING DUSK SOME
PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOPING AGAIN IN THE VALLEYS AFTER 06Z
AFFECTING MOST OF THE TAF SITES WITH SOME MVFR VIS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON ON
SATURDAY WITH VCTS AGAIN INCLUDED. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PEAK IN
THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...OUTSIDE OF ANY STORM...
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...PICKING UP AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GREIF





000
FXUS63 KJKL 291832 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
232 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO TOUCH UP THE GRIDS PER THE LATEST T/TD OBS
AND RADAR IMAGES. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1045 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE STILL HOLDING ON OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH LOW PRESSURE OUT TO THE WEST. THE EARLIER
VALLEY FOG HAS CLEARED OUT OF THE AREA WITH MAINLY SOME MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS LEFT BEHIND...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
CWA. JUST A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA
ATTM...BUT WITH A LACK OF DEBRIS CLOUDS HINDERING DEVELOPMENT
EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD LATER TODAY WHEN COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY. THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT THE TRIGGERS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY...BUT DIFFERENTIAL HEATING SHOULD BE
ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CURRENTLY TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S MOST LOCATIONS
UNDER THE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WINDS HAVE PICKED UP A BIT FROM
THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS...COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...WHILE THE
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE STICKY MID TO UPPER 60S. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST MAINLY FOR NEAR TERM CONDITIONS AND TRENDS WHILE ALSO
REMOVING THE FOG. THE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND
WEB SERVERS WHILE A FRESHENED SET OF ZONES HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 819 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

FRESHENED UP THE TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND SKY COVER OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO JIVE BETTER WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. ALSO SLOWED THE POPS A BIT MORE...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
TRENDS IN THE HRRR MODEL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY ALIGNED NORTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER. EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS ON THE MORE HUMID SIDE OF
THE BOUNDARY...WITH THE AIR MASS NOTICEABLY MORE STICKY COMPARED
TO THE LAST FEW DAYS. A WEAK IMPULSE OR TWO WILL ONCE AGAIN PASS
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD...AND THE TROUGH ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE
TRAJECTORY OF THESE IMPULSES...HOWEVER GIVEN THE WEAKER CAP IN
PLACE AND LIKELY MORE INSTABILITY BUILDING TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...SCATTERED CONVECTION SEEMS LIKE A GOOD BET. HIGHS
WILL BE WARMER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...WITH LESS CLOUDS...GENERALLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

CONVECTION WILL DIE OFF WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING TONIGHT...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...AND PATCHY
FOG SETTING UP...PARTICULARLY AT LOCATIONS THAT SEE SUSTAINED
RAINFALL. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY ON SATURDAY...HOWEVER THERE ALSO BE DRIER AIR IN THE LOW TO
MID-LEVELS. THIS WILL KEEP MORE OF A GRADIENT OF POPS ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH BETTER STORM CHANCES NEAR I-64...AND LESSER CHANCES TO
THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S IN THE
NORTH...TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OFF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MEANWHILE...
ANOTHER AREA OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
WILL HELP TO BREAK DOWN THE OVERALL LONGWAVE TROUGHING PATTERN THAT
HAS EXISTED OVER MUCH OF THE LAST WEEK ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CONUS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...KY WILL FIND ITSELF WEDGED IN BETWEEN
THESE TWO RIDGES...WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AMPLIFYING OVER THE
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS IT BECOMES BLOCKED. EXPECT THIS
TROUGH TO FINALLY CLOSE OFF INTO A CLOSED LOW BY MONDAY
NIGHT...STAYING NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED...WHILE WEAK RIDGING SLIDES IN JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. THIS PATTERN TO OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER
ACROSS MUCH OF KY THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BE COLLOCATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE
START OF THE EXTENDED. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THIS LOW
NEWRD...ATTACHING TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EASTERN
COAST OF CANADA. AS SUCH...THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SPAN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE OF KY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...CREATING A
DRIVING FORCE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
WARM MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. AND GIVEN THE
BLOCKED NATURE OF THIS CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW...EXPECT THERE TO BE
LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT...SHIFTING ONLY SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE TN BORDER THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED. THIS SLIGHT SHIFT WILL AT LEAST ALLOW SOME INFLUENCE OF
THE DEVELOP UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

EXPECT BEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO BE ON SUNDAY...AS HAS BEEN
HIGHLIGHTED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE
BOUNDARY OVER MUCH OF THE STATE. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DIRECTIONAL
SHEER OR SPEED SHEER...AND SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOW HIGH AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...WILL OFFSET ANY OF THE HIGHER CAPE
AMOUNTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY...BUT
ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS
WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. THE BOUNDARY THEN SHIFTS
SOUTHWARD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA. THIS WILL CREATE A WIND SHIFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH
COOLER AND MORE STABLE NW FLOW TAKING HOLD. TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A
SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN THIS REGIME...AS WILL THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE. THAT BEING SAID...THE BOUNDARY WILL
STILL BE IN SUCH A CLOSE PROXIMITY THAT AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH AND SE CWA...CANNOT BE RULED
OUT EACH DAY. SO ESSENTIALLY...POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. OVERALL COVERAGE ACROSS THE CWA WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AND MORE MOISTURE IS ADVECTED INTO
THE CWA.

GIVEN DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE
SUPERBLEND OF MODELS SEEMED TO HANDLE POPS AND OTHER PARAMETERS
FAIRLY WELL. THE ONLY MAJOR ADJUSTMENT TO THE MODEL BLEND WAS TO
UNDERCUT POPS SOME DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS DUE TO LOSS OF
INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH THE SUPERBLEND 12 HOUR GRIDS ARE
JUST NOT CAPABLE OF PICKING UP ON. TEMPS...WINDS...AND CLOUD COVER
ALL SEEMED QUITE REASONABLE AND WITHIN GOOD AGREEMENT OF SURROUNDING
OFFICES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL NOT TAPER OFF MUCH UNTIL EARLY THIS
EVENING...WARRANTING AT LEAST A VCTS MENTION AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS. ONCE THE CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATES FOLLOWING DUSK SOME
PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOPING AGAIN IN THE VALLEYS AFTER 06Z
AFFECTING MOST OF THE TAF SITES WITH SOME MVFR VIS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON ON
SATURDAY WITH VCTS AGAIN INCLUDED. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PEAK IN
THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...OUTSIDE OF ANY STORM...
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...PICKING UP AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GREIF





000
FXUS63 KJKL 291832 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
232 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO TOUCH UP THE GRIDS PER THE LATEST T/TD OBS
AND RADAR IMAGES. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1045 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE STILL HOLDING ON OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH LOW PRESSURE OUT TO THE WEST. THE EARLIER
VALLEY FOG HAS CLEARED OUT OF THE AREA WITH MAINLY SOME MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS LEFT BEHIND...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
CWA. JUST A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA
ATTM...BUT WITH A LACK OF DEBRIS CLOUDS HINDERING DEVELOPMENT
EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD LATER TODAY WHEN COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY. THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT THE TRIGGERS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY...BUT DIFFERENTIAL HEATING SHOULD BE
ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CURRENTLY TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S MOST LOCATIONS
UNDER THE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WINDS HAVE PICKED UP A BIT FROM
THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS...COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...WHILE THE
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE STICKY MID TO UPPER 60S. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST MAINLY FOR NEAR TERM CONDITIONS AND TRENDS WHILE ALSO
REMOVING THE FOG. THE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND
WEB SERVERS WHILE A FRESHENED SET OF ZONES HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 819 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

FRESHENED UP THE TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND SKY COVER OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO JIVE BETTER WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. ALSO SLOWED THE POPS A BIT MORE...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
TRENDS IN THE HRRR MODEL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY ALIGNED NORTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER. EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS ON THE MORE HUMID SIDE OF
THE BOUNDARY...WITH THE AIR MASS NOTICEABLY MORE STICKY COMPARED
TO THE LAST FEW DAYS. A WEAK IMPULSE OR TWO WILL ONCE AGAIN PASS
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD...AND THE TROUGH ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE
TRAJECTORY OF THESE IMPULSES...HOWEVER GIVEN THE WEAKER CAP IN
PLACE AND LIKELY MORE INSTABILITY BUILDING TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...SCATTERED CONVECTION SEEMS LIKE A GOOD BET. HIGHS
WILL BE WARMER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...WITH LESS CLOUDS...GENERALLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

CONVECTION WILL DIE OFF WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING TONIGHT...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...AND PATCHY
FOG SETTING UP...PARTICULARLY AT LOCATIONS THAT SEE SUSTAINED
RAINFALL. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY ON SATURDAY...HOWEVER THERE ALSO BE DRIER AIR IN THE LOW TO
MID-LEVELS. THIS WILL KEEP MORE OF A GRADIENT OF POPS ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH BETTER STORM CHANCES NEAR I-64...AND LESSER CHANCES TO
THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S IN THE
NORTH...TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OFF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MEANWHILE...
ANOTHER AREA OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
WILL HELP TO BREAK DOWN THE OVERALL LONGWAVE TROUGHING PATTERN THAT
HAS EXISTED OVER MUCH OF THE LAST WEEK ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CONUS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...KY WILL FIND ITSELF WEDGED IN BETWEEN
THESE TWO RIDGES...WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AMPLIFYING OVER THE
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS IT BECOMES BLOCKED. EXPECT THIS
TROUGH TO FINALLY CLOSE OFF INTO A CLOSED LOW BY MONDAY
NIGHT...STAYING NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED...WHILE WEAK RIDGING SLIDES IN JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. THIS PATTERN TO OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER
ACROSS MUCH OF KY THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BE COLLOCATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE
START OF THE EXTENDED. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THIS LOW
NEWRD...ATTACHING TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EASTERN
COAST OF CANADA. AS SUCH...THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SPAN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE OF KY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...CREATING A
DRIVING FORCE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
WARM MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. AND GIVEN THE
BLOCKED NATURE OF THIS CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW...EXPECT THERE TO BE
LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT...SHIFTING ONLY SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE TN BORDER THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED. THIS SLIGHT SHIFT WILL AT LEAST ALLOW SOME INFLUENCE OF
THE DEVELOP UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

EXPECT BEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO BE ON SUNDAY...AS HAS BEEN
HIGHLIGHTED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE
BOUNDARY OVER MUCH OF THE STATE. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DIRECTIONAL
SHEER OR SPEED SHEER...AND SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOW HIGH AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...WILL OFFSET ANY OF THE HIGHER CAPE
AMOUNTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY...BUT
ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS
WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. THE BOUNDARY THEN SHIFTS
SOUTHWARD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA. THIS WILL CREATE A WIND SHIFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH
COOLER AND MORE STABLE NW FLOW TAKING HOLD. TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A
SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN THIS REGIME...AS WILL THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE. THAT BEING SAID...THE BOUNDARY WILL
STILL BE IN SUCH A CLOSE PROXIMITY THAT AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH AND SE CWA...CANNOT BE RULED
OUT EACH DAY. SO ESSENTIALLY...POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. OVERALL COVERAGE ACROSS THE CWA WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AND MORE MOISTURE IS ADVECTED INTO
THE CWA.

GIVEN DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE
SUPERBLEND OF MODELS SEEMED TO HANDLE POPS AND OTHER PARAMETERS
FAIRLY WELL. THE ONLY MAJOR ADJUSTMENT TO THE MODEL BLEND WAS TO
UNDERCUT POPS SOME DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS DUE TO LOSS OF
INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH THE SUPERBLEND 12 HOUR GRIDS ARE
JUST NOT CAPABLE OF PICKING UP ON. TEMPS...WINDS...AND CLOUD COVER
ALL SEEMED QUITE REASONABLE AND WITHIN GOOD AGREEMENT OF SURROUNDING
OFFICES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL NOT TAPER OFF MUCH UNTIL EARLY THIS
EVENING...WARRANTING AT LEAST A VCTS MENTION AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS. ONCE THE CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATES FOLLOWING DUSK SOME
PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOPING AGAIN IN THE VALLEYS AFTER 06Z
AFFECTING MOST OF THE TAF SITES WITH SOME MVFR VIS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON ON
SATURDAY WITH VCTS AGAIN INCLUDED. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PEAK IN
THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...OUTSIDE OF ANY STORM...
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...PICKING UP AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GREIF




000
FXUS63 KJKL 291445 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1045 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE STILL HOLDING ON OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH LOW PRESSURE OUT TO THE WEST. THE EARLIER
VALLEY FOG HAS CLEARED OUT OF THE AREA WITH MAINLY SOME MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS LEFT BEHIND...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
CWA. JUST A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA
ATTM...BUT WITH A LACK OF DEBRIS CLOUDS HINDERING DEVELOPMENT
EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD LATER TODAY WHEN COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY. THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT THE TRIGGERS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY...BUT DIFFERENTIAL HEATING SHOULD BE
ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CURRENTLY TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S MOST LOCATIONS
UNDER THE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WINDS HAVE PICKED UP A BIT FROM
THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS...COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...WHILE THE
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE STICKY MID TO UPPER 60S. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST MAINLY FOR NEAR TERM CONDITIONS AND TRENDS WHILE ALSO
REMOVING THE FOG. THE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND
WEB SERVERS WHILE A FRESHENED SET OF ZONES HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 819 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

FRESHENED UP THE TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND SKY COVER OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO JIVE BETTER WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. ALSO SLOWED THE POPS A BIT MORE...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
TRENDS IN THE HRRR MODEL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY ALIGNED NORTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER. EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS ON THE MORE HUMID SIDE OF
THE BOUNDARY...WITH THE AIR MASS NOTICEABLY MORE STICKY COMPARED
TO THE LAST FEW DAYS. A WEAK IMPULSE OR TWO WILL ONCE AGAIN PASS
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD...AND THE TROUGH ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE
TRAJECTORY OF THESE IMPULSES...HOWEVER GIVEN THE WEAKER CAP IN
PLACE AND LIKELY MORE INSTABILITY BUILDING TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...SCATTERED CONVECTION SEEMS LIKE A GOOD BET. HIGHS
WILL BE WARMER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...WITH LESS CLOUDS...GENERALLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

CONVECTION WILL DIE OFF WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING TONIGHT...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...AND PATCHY
FOG SETTING UP...PARTICULARLY AT LOCATIONS THAT SEE SUSTAINED
RAINFALL. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY ON SATURDAY...HOWEVER THERE ALSO BE DRIER AIR IN THE LOW TO
MID-LEVELS. THIS WILL KEEP MORE OF A GRADIENT OF POPS ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH BETTER STORM CHANCES NEAR I-64...AND LESSER CHANCES TO
THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S IN THE
NORTH...TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OFF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MEANWHILE...
ANOTHER AREA OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
WILL HELP TO BREAK DOWN THE OVERALL LONGWAVE TROUGHING PATTERN THAT
HAS EXISTED OVER MUCH OF THE LAST WEEK ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CONUS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...KY WILL FIND ITSELF WEDGED IN BETWEEN
THESE TWO RIDGES...WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AMPLIFYING OVER THE
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS IT BECOMES BLOCKED. EXPECT THIS
TROUGH TO FINALLY CLOSE OFF INTO A CLOSED LOW BY MONDAY
NIGHT...STAYING NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED...WHILE WEAK RIDGING SLIDES IN JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. THIS PATTERN TO OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER
ACROSS MUCH OF KY THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BE COLLOCATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE
START OF THE EXTENDED. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THIS LOW
NEWRD...ATTACHING TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EASTERN
COAST OF CANADA. AS SUCH...THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SPAN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE OF KY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...CREATING A
DRIVING FORCE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
WARM MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. AND GIVEN THE
BLOCKED NATURE OF THIS CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW...EXPECT THERE TO BE
LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT...SHIFTING ONLY SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE TN BORDER THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED. THIS SLIGHT SHIFT WILL AT LEAST ALLOW SOME INFLUENCE OF
THE DEVELOP UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

EXPECT BEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO BE ON SUNDAY...AS HAS BEEN
HIGHLIGHTED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE
BOUNDARY OVER MUCH OF THE STATE. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DIRECTIONAL
SHEER OR SPEED SHEER...AND SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOW HIGH AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...WILL OFFSET ANY OF THE HIGHER CAPE
AMOUNTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY...BUT
ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS
WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. THE BOUNDARY THEN SHIFTS
SOUTHWARD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA. THIS WILL CREATE A WIND SHIFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH
COOLER AND MORE STABLE NW FLOW TAKING HOLD. TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A
SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN THIS REGIME...AS WILL THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE. THAT BEING SAID...THE BOUNDARY WILL
STILL BE IN SUCH A CLOSE PROXIMITY THAT AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH AND SE CWA...CANNOT BE RULED
OUT EACH DAY. SO ESSENTIALLY...POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. OVERALL COVERAGE ACROSS THE CWA WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AND MORE MOISTURE IS ADVECTED INTO
THE CWA.

GIVEN DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE
SUPERBLEND OF MODELS SEEMED TO HANDLE POPS AND OTHER PARAMETERS
FAIRLY WELL. THE ONLY MAJOR ADJUSTMENT TO THE MODEL BLEND WAS TO
UNDERCUT POPS SOME DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS DUE TO LOSS OF
INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH THE SUPERBLEND 12 HOUR GRIDS ARE
JUST NOT CAPABLE OF PICKING UP ON. TEMPS...WINDS...AND CLOUD COVER
ALL SEEMED QUITE REASONABLE AND WITHIN GOOD AGREEMENT OF SURROUNDING
OFFICES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 819 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

IFR OR WORSE FOG WILL BE BURNING OFF THROUGH 13Z. SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WARRANTING AT LEAST A VCTS MENTION AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS.
CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE AT DUSK...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG LIKELY
DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN IN THE VALLEYS AFTER 06Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL PEAK IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE WINDS
WILL REMAIN AT 5 KTS OR LESS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN




000
FXUS63 KJKL 291445 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1045 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE STILL HOLDING ON OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH LOW PRESSURE OUT TO THE WEST. THE EARLIER
VALLEY FOG HAS CLEARED OUT OF THE AREA WITH MAINLY SOME MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS LEFT BEHIND...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
CWA. JUST A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA
ATTM...BUT WITH A LACK OF DEBRIS CLOUDS HINDERING DEVELOPMENT
EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD LATER TODAY WHEN COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY. THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT THE TRIGGERS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY...BUT DIFFERENTIAL HEATING SHOULD BE
ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CURRENTLY TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S MOST LOCATIONS
UNDER THE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WINDS HAVE PICKED UP A BIT FROM
THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS...COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...WHILE THE
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE STICKY MID TO UPPER 60S. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST MAINLY FOR NEAR TERM CONDITIONS AND TRENDS WHILE ALSO
REMOVING THE FOG. THE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND
WEB SERVERS WHILE A FRESHENED SET OF ZONES HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 819 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

FRESHENED UP THE TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND SKY COVER OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO JIVE BETTER WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. ALSO SLOWED THE POPS A BIT MORE...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
TRENDS IN THE HRRR MODEL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY ALIGNED NORTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER. EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS ON THE MORE HUMID SIDE OF
THE BOUNDARY...WITH THE AIR MASS NOTICEABLY MORE STICKY COMPARED
TO THE LAST FEW DAYS. A WEAK IMPULSE OR TWO WILL ONCE AGAIN PASS
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD...AND THE TROUGH ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE
TRAJECTORY OF THESE IMPULSES...HOWEVER GIVEN THE WEAKER CAP IN
PLACE AND LIKELY MORE INSTABILITY BUILDING TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...SCATTERED CONVECTION SEEMS LIKE A GOOD BET. HIGHS
WILL BE WARMER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...WITH LESS CLOUDS...GENERALLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

CONVECTION WILL DIE OFF WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING TONIGHT...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...AND PATCHY
FOG SETTING UP...PARTICULARLY AT LOCATIONS THAT SEE SUSTAINED
RAINFALL. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY ON SATURDAY...HOWEVER THERE ALSO BE DRIER AIR IN THE LOW TO
MID-LEVELS. THIS WILL KEEP MORE OF A GRADIENT OF POPS ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH BETTER STORM CHANCES NEAR I-64...AND LESSER CHANCES TO
THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S IN THE
NORTH...TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OFF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MEANWHILE...
ANOTHER AREA OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
WILL HELP TO BREAK DOWN THE OVERALL LONGWAVE TROUGHING PATTERN THAT
HAS EXISTED OVER MUCH OF THE LAST WEEK ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CONUS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...KY WILL FIND ITSELF WEDGED IN BETWEEN
THESE TWO RIDGES...WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AMPLIFYING OVER THE
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS IT BECOMES BLOCKED. EXPECT THIS
TROUGH TO FINALLY CLOSE OFF INTO A CLOSED LOW BY MONDAY
NIGHT...STAYING NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED...WHILE WEAK RIDGING SLIDES IN JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. THIS PATTERN TO OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER
ACROSS MUCH OF KY THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BE COLLOCATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE
START OF THE EXTENDED. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THIS LOW
NEWRD...ATTACHING TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EASTERN
COAST OF CANADA. AS SUCH...THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SPAN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE OF KY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...CREATING A
DRIVING FORCE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
WARM MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. AND GIVEN THE
BLOCKED NATURE OF THIS CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW...EXPECT THERE TO BE
LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT...SHIFTING ONLY SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE TN BORDER THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED. THIS SLIGHT SHIFT WILL AT LEAST ALLOW SOME INFLUENCE OF
THE DEVELOP UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

EXPECT BEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO BE ON SUNDAY...AS HAS BEEN
HIGHLIGHTED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE
BOUNDARY OVER MUCH OF THE STATE. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DIRECTIONAL
SHEER OR SPEED SHEER...AND SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOW HIGH AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...WILL OFFSET ANY OF THE HIGHER CAPE
AMOUNTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY...BUT
ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS
WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. THE BOUNDARY THEN SHIFTS
SOUTHWARD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA. THIS WILL CREATE A WIND SHIFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH
COOLER AND MORE STABLE NW FLOW TAKING HOLD. TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A
SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN THIS REGIME...AS WILL THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE. THAT BEING SAID...THE BOUNDARY WILL
STILL BE IN SUCH A CLOSE PROXIMITY THAT AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH AND SE CWA...CANNOT BE RULED
OUT EACH DAY. SO ESSENTIALLY...POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. OVERALL COVERAGE ACROSS THE CWA WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AND MORE MOISTURE IS ADVECTED INTO
THE CWA.

GIVEN DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE
SUPERBLEND OF MODELS SEEMED TO HANDLE POPS AND OTHER PARAMETERS
FAIRLY WELL. THE ONLY MAJOR ADJUSTMENT TO THE MODEL BLEND WAS TO
UNDERCUT POPS SOME DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS DUE TO LOSS OF
INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH THE SUPERBLEND 12 HOUR GRIDS ARE
JUST NOT CAPABLE OF PICKING UP ON. TEMPS...WINDS...AND CLOUD COVER
ALL SEEMED QUITE REASONABLE AND WITHIN GOOD AGREEMENT OF SURROUNDING
OFFICES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 819 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

IFR OR WORSE FOG WILL BE BURNING OFF THROUGH 13Z. SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WARRANTING AT LEAST A VCTS MENTION AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS.
CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE AT DUSK...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG LIKELY
DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN IN THE VALLEYS AFTER 06Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL PEAK IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE WINDS
WILL REMAIN AT 5 KTS OR LESS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN





000
FXUS63 KJKL 291219 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
819 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 819 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

FRESHENED UP THE TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND SKY COVER OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO JIVE BETTER WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. ALSO SLOWED THE POPS A BIT MORE...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
TRENDS IN THE HRRR MODEL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY ALIGNED NORTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER. EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS ON THE MORE HUMID SIDE OF
THE BOUNDARY...WITH THE AIR MASS NOTICEABLY MORE STICKY COMPARED
TO THE LAST FEW DAYS. A WEAK IMPULSE OR TWO WILL ONCE AGAIN PASS
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD...AND THE TROUGH ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE
TRAJECTORY OF THESE IMPULSES...HOWEVER GIVEN THE WEAKER CAP IN
PLACE AND LIKELY MORE INSTABILITY BUILDING TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...SCATTERED CONVECTION SEEMS LIKE A GOOD BET. HIGHS
WILL BE WARMER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...WITH LESS CLOUDS...GENERALLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

CONVECTION WILL DIE OFF WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING TONIGHT...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...AND PATCHY
FOG SETTING UP...PARTICULARLY AT LOCATIONS THAT SEE SUSTAINED
RAINFALL. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY ON SATURDAY...HOWEVER THERE ALSO BE DRIER AIR IN THE LOW TO
MID-LEVELS. THIS WILL KEEP MORE OF A GRADIENT OF POPS ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH BETTER STORM CHANCES NEAR I-64...AND LESSER CHANCES TO
THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S IN THE
NORTH...TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OFF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MEANWHILE...
ANOTHER AREA OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
WILL HELP TO BREAK DOWN THE OVERALL LONGWAVE TROUGHING PATTERN THAT
HAS EXISTED OVER MUCH OF THE LAST WEEK ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CONUS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...KY WILL FIND ITSELF WEDGED IN BETWEEN
THESE TWO RIDGES...WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AMPLIFYING OVER THE
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS IT BECOMES BLOCKED. EXPECT THIS
TROUGH TO FINALLY CLOSE OFF INTO A CLOSED LOW BY MONDAY
NIGHT...STAYING NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED...WHILE WEAK RIDGING SLIDES IN JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. THIS PATTERN TO OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER
ACROSS MUCH OF KY THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BE COLLOCATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE
START OF THE EXTENDED. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THIS LOW
NEWRD...ATTACHING TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EASTERN
COAST OF CANADA. AS SUCH...THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SPAN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE OF KY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...CREATING A
DRIVING FORCE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
WARM MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. AND GIVEN THE
BLOCKED NATURE OF THIS CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW...EXPECT THERE TO BE
LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT...SHIFTING ONLY SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE TN BORDER THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED. THIS SLIGHT SHIFT WILL AT LEAST ALLOW SOME INFLUENCE OF
THE DEVELOP UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

EXPECT BEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO BE ON SUNDAY...AS HAS BEEN
HIGHLIGHTED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE
BOUNDARY OVER MUCH OF THE STATE. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DIRECTIONAL
SHEER OR SPEED SHEER...AND SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOW HIGH AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...WILL OFFSET ANY OF THE HIGHER CAPE
AMOUNTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY...BUT
ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS
WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. THE BOUNDARY THEN SHIFTS
SOUTHWARD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA. THIS WILL CREATE A WIND SHIFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH
COOLER AND MORE STABLE NW FLOW TAKING HOLD. TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A
SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN THIS REGIME...AS WILL THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE. THAT BEING SAID...THE BOUNDARY WILL
STILL BE IN SUCH A CLOSE PROXIMITY THAT AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH AND SE CWA...CANNOT BE RULED
OUT EACH DAY. SO ESSENTIALLY...POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. OVERALL COVERAGE ACROSS THE CWA WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AND MORE MOISTURE IS ADVECTED INTO
THE CWA.

GIVEN DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE
SUPERBLEND OF MODELS SEEMED TO HANDLE POPS AND OTHER PARAMETERS
FAIRLY WELL. THE ONLY MAJOR ADJUSTMENT TO THE MODEL BLEND WAS TO
UNDERCUT POPS SOME DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS DUE TO LOSS OF
INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH THE SUPERBLEND 12 HOUR GRIDS ARE
JUST NOT CAPABLE OF PICKING UP ON. TEMPS...WINDS...AND CLOUD COVER
ALL SEEMED QUITE REASONABLE AND WITHIN GOOD AGREEMENT OF SURROUNDING
OFFICES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 819 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

IFR OR WORSE FOG WILL BE BURNING OFF THROUGH 13Z. SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WARRANTING AT LEAST A VCTS MENTION AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS.
CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE AT DUSK...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG LIKELY
DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN IN THE VALLEYS AFTER 06Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL PEAK IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE WINDS
WILL REMAIN AT 5 KTS OR LESS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN




000
FXUS63 KJKL 291219 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
819 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 819 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

FRESHENED UP THE TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND SKY COVER OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO JIVE BETTER WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. ALSO SLOWED THE POPS A BIT MORE...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
TRENDS IN THE HRRR MODEL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY ALIGNED NORTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER. EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS ON THE MORE HUMID SIDE OF
THE BOUNDARY...WITH THE AIR MASS NOTICEABLY MORE STICKY COMPARED
TO THE LAST FEW DAYS. A WEAK IMPULSE OR TWO WILL ONCE AGAIN PASS
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD...AND THE TROUGH ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE
TRAJECTORY OF THESE IMPULSES...HOWEVER GIVEN THE WEAKER CAP IN
PLACE AND LIKELY MORE INSTABILITY BUILDING TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...SCATTERED CONVECTION SEEMS LIKE A GOOD BET. HIGHS
WILL BE WARMER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...WITH LESS CLOUDS...GENERALLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

CONVECTION WILL DIE OFF WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING TONIGHT...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...AND PATCHY
FOG SETTING UP...PARTICULARLY AT LOCATIONS THAT SEE SUSTAINED
RAINFALL. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY ON SATURDAY...HOWEVER THERE ALSO BE DRIER AIR IN THE LOW TO
MID-LEVELS. THIS WILL KEEP MORE OF A GRADIENT OF POPS ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH BETTER STORM CHANCES NEAR I-64...AND LESSER CHANCES TO
THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S IN THE
NORTH...TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OFF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MEANWHILE...
ANOTHER AREA OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
WILL HELP TO BREAK DOWN THE OVERALL LONGWAVE TROUGHING PATTERN THAT
HAS EXISTED OVER MUCH OF THE LAST WEEK ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CONUS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...KY WILL FIND ITSELF WEDGED IN BETWEEN
THESE TWO RIDGES...WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AMPLIFYING OVER THE
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS IT BECOMES BLOCKED. EXPECT THIS
TROUGH TO FINALLY CLOSE OFF INTO A CLOSED LOW BY MONDAY
NIGHT...STAYING NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED...WHILE WEAK RIDGING SLIDES IN JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. THIS PATTERN TO OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER
ACROSS MUCH OF KY THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BE COLLOCATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE
START OF THE EXTENDED. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THIS LOW
NEWRD...ATTACHING TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EASTERN
COAST OF CANADA. AS SUCH...THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SPAN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE OF KY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...CREATING A
DRIVING FORCE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
WARM MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. AND GIVEN THE
BLOCKED NATURE OF THIS CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW...EXPECT THERE TO BE
LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT...SHIFTING ONLY SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE TN BORDER THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED. THIS SLIGHT SHIFT WILL AT LEAST ALLOW SOME INFLUENCE OF
THE DEVELOP UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

EXPECT BEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO BE ON SUNDAY...AS HAS BEEN
HIGHLIGHTED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE
BOUNDARY OVER MUCH OF THE STATE. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DIRECTIONAL
SHEER OR SPEED SHEER...AND SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOW HIGH AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...WILL OFFSET ANY OF THE HIGHER CAPE
AMOUNTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY...BUT
ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS
WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. THE BOUNDARY THEN SHIFTS
SOUTHWARD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA. THIS WILL CREATE A WIND SHIFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH
COOLER AND MORE STABLE NW FLOW TAKING HOLD. TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A
SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN THIS REGIME...AS WILL THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE. THAT BEING SAID...THE BOUNDARY WILL
STILL BE IN SUCH A CLOSE PROXIMITY THAT AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH AND SE CWA...CANNOT BE RULED
OUT EACH DAY. SO ESSENTIALLY...POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. OVERALL COVERAGE ACROSS THE CWA WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AND MORE MOISTURE IS ADVECTED INTO
THE CWA.

GIVEN DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE
SUPERBLEND OF MODELS SEEMED TO HANDLE POPS AND OTHER PARAMETERS
FAIRLY WELL. THE ONLY MAJOR ADJUSTMENT TO THE MODEL BLEND WAS TO
UNDERCUT POPS SOME DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS DUE TO LOSS OF
INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH THE SUPERBLEND 12 HOUR GRIDS ARE
JUST NOT CAPABLE OF PICKING UP ON. TEMPS...WINDS...AND CLOUD COVER
ALL SEEMED QUITE REASONABLE AND WITHIN GOOD AGREEMENT OF SURROUNDING
OFFICES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 819 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

IFR OR WORSE FOG WILL BE BURNING OFF THROUGH 13Z. SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WARRANTING AT LEAST A VCTS MENTION AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS.
CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE AT DUSK...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG LIKELY
DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN IN THE VALLEYS AFTER 06Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL PEAK IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE WINDS
WILL REMAIN AT 5 KTS OR LESS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN





000
FXUS63 KJKL 290812
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
412 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY ALIGNED NORTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER. EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS ON THE MORE HUMID SIDE OF
THE BOUNDARY...WITH THE AIR MASS NOTICEABLY MORE STICKY COMPARED
TO THE LAST FEW DAYS. A WEAK IMPULSE OR TWO WILL ONCE AGAIN PASS
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD...AND THE TROUGH ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE
TRAJECTORY OF THESE IMPULSES...HOWEVER GIVEN THE WEAKER CAP IN
PLACE AND LIKELY MORE INSTABILITY BUILDING TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...SCATTERED CONVECTION SEEMS LIKE A GOOD BET. HIGHS
WILL BE WARMER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...WITH LESS CLOUDS...GENERALLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

CONVECTION WILL DIE OFF WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING TONIGHT...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...AND PATCHY
FOG SETTING UP...PARTICULARLY AT LOCATIONS THAT SEE SUSTAINED
RAINFALL. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY ON SATURDAY...HOWEVER THERE ALSO BE DRIER AIR IN THE LOW TO
MID-LEVELS. THIS WILL KEEP MORE OF A GRADIENT OF POPS ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH BETTER STORM CHANCES NEAR I-64...AND LESSER CHANCES TO
THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S IN THE
NORTH...TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OFF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MEANWHILE...
ANOTHER AREA OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
WILL HELP TO BREAK DOWN THE OVERALL LONGWAVE TROUGHING PATTERN THAT
HAS EXISTED OVER MUCH OF THE LAST WEEK ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CONUS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...KY WILL FIND ITSELF WEDGED IN BETWEEN
THESE TWO RIDGES...WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AMPLIFYING OVER THE
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS IT BECOMES BLOCKED. EXPECT THIS
TROUGH TO FINALLY CLOSE OFF INTO A CLOSED LOW BY MONDAY
NIGHT...STAYING NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED...WHILE WEAK RIDGING SLIDES IN JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. THIS PATTERN TO OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER
ACROSS MUCH OF KY THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BE COLLOCATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE
START OF THE EXTENDED. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THIS LOW
NEWRD...ATTACHING TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EASTERN
COAST OF CANADA. AS SUCH...THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SPAN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE OF KY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...CREATING A
DRIVING FORCE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
WARM MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. AND GIVEN THE
BLOCKED NATURE OF THIS CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW...EXPECT THERE TO BE
LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT...SHIFTING ONLY SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE TN BORDER THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED. THIS SLIGHT SHIFT WILL AT LEAST ALLOW SOME INFLUENCE OF
THE DEVELOP UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

EXPECT BEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO BE ON SUNDAY...AS HAS BEEN
HIGHLIGHTED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE
BOUNDARY OVER MUCH OF THE STATE. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DIRECTIONAL
SHEER OR SPEED SHEER...AND SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOW HIGH AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...WILL OFFSET ANY OF THE HIGHER CAPE
AMOUNTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY...BUT
ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS
WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. THE BOUNDARY THEN SHIFTS
SOUTHWARD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA. THIS WILL CREATE A WIND SHIFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH
COOLER AND MORE STABLE NW FLOW TAKING HOLD. TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A
SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN THIS REGIME...AS WILL THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE. THAT BEING SAID...THE BOUNDARY WILL
STILL BE IN SUCH A CLOSE PROXIMITY THAT AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH AND SE CWA...CANNOT BE RULED
OUT EACH DAY. SO ESSENTIALLY...POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. OVERALL COVERAGE ACROSS THE CWA WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AND MORE MOISTURE IS ADVECTED INTO
THE CWA.

GIVEN DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE
SUPERBLEND OF MODELS SEEMED TO HANDLE POPS AND OTHER PARAMETERS
FAIRLY WELL. THE ONLY MAJOR ADJUSTMENT TO THE MODEL BLEND WAS TO
UNDERCUT POPS SOME DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS DUE TO LOSS OF
INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH THE SUPERBLEND 12 HOUR GRIDS ARE
JUST NOT CAPABLE OF PICKING UP ON. TEMPS...WINDS...AND CLOUD COVER
ALL SEEMED QUITE REASONABLE AND WITHIN GOOD AGREEMENT OF SURROUNDING
OFFICES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

IFR OR WORSE FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN PLAGUE THE VALLEYS THROUGH
13Z...BEFORE DISSIPATING. SME WILL BE HIT HARD...WITH AIRFIELD
MINIMUMS LIKELY HOLDING ON THROUGH DAWN. EXPECT MVFR FOR THE REST
OF THE TAF SITES...HOWEVER LOZ COULD ALSO POTENTIALLY GO DOWN TO
IFR OR LOWER...GIVEN THE CLEARING TRENDS. ONCE THE FOG
DISSIPATES...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WARRANTING AT LEAST A VCTS MENTION AT ALL
LOCATIONS FOR NOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN AT AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.

&&



&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN




000
FXUS63 KJKL 290812
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
412 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY ALIGNED NORTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER. EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS ON THE MORE HUMID SIDE OF
THE BOUNDARY...WITH THE AIR MASS NOTICEABLY MORE STICKY COMPARED
TO THE LAST FEW DAYS. A WEAK IMPULSE OR TWO WILL ONCE AGAIN PASS
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD...AND THE TROUGH ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE
TRAJECTORY OF THESE IMPULSES...HOWEVER GIVEN THE WEAKER CAP IN
PLACE AND LIKELY MORE INSTABILITY BUILDING TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...SCATTERED CONVECTION SEEMS LIKE A GOOD BET. HIGHS
WILL BE WARMER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...WITH LESS CLOUDS...GENERALLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

CONVECTION WILL DIE OFF WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING TONIGHT...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...AND PATCHY
FOG SETTING UP...PARTICULARLY AT LOCATIONS THAT SEE SUSTAINED
RAINFALL. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY ON SATURDAY...HOWEVER THERE ALSO BE DRIER AIR IN THE LOW TO
MID-LEVELS. THIS WILL KEEP MORE OF A GRADIENT OF POPS ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH BETTER STORM CHANCES NEAR I-64...AND LESSER CHANCES TO
THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S IN THE
NORTH...TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OFF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MEANWHILE...
ANOTHER AREA OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
WILL HELP TO BREAK DOWN THE OVERALL LONGWAVE TROUGHING PATTERN THAT
HAS EXISTED OVER MUCH OF THE LAST WEEK ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CONUS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...KY WILL FIND ITSELF WEDGED IN BETWEEN
THESE TWO RIDGES...WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AMPLIFYING OVER THE
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS IT BECOMES BLOCKED. EXPECT THIS
TROUGH TO FINALLY CLOSE OFF INTO A CLOSED LOW BY MONDAY
NIGHT...STAYING NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED...WHILE WEAK RIDGING SLIDES IN JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. THIS PATTERN TO OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER
ACROSS MUCH OF KY THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BE COLLOCATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE
START OF THE EXTENDED. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THIS LOW
NEWRD...ATTACHING TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EASTERN
COAST OF CANADA. AS SUCH...THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SPAN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE OF KY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...CREATING A
DRIVING FORCE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
WARM MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. AND GIVEN THE
BLOCKED NATURE OF THIS CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW...EXPECT THERE TO BE
LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT...SHIFTING ONLY SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE TN BORDER THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED. THIS SLIGHT SHIFT WILL AT LEAST ALLOW SOME INFLUENCE OF
THE DEVELOP UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

EXPECT BEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO BE ON SUNDAY...AS HAS BEEN
HIGHLIGHTED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE
BOUNDARY OVER MUCH OF THE STATE. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DIRECTIONAL
SHEER OR SPEED SHEER...AND SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOW HIGH AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...WILL OFFSET ANY OF THE HIGHER CAPE
AMOUNTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY...BUT
ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS
WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. THE BOUNDARY THEN SHIFTS
SOUTHWARD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA. THIS WILL CREATE A WIND SHIFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH
COOLER AND MORE STABLE NW FLOW TAKING HOLD. TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A
SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN THIS REGIME...AS WILL THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE. THAT BEING SAID...THE BOUNDARY WILL
STILL BE IN SUCH A CLOSE PROXIMITY THAT AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH AND SE CWA...CANNOT BE RULED
OUT EACH DAY. SO ESSENTIALLY...POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. OVERALL COVERAGE ACROSS THE CWA WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AND MORE MOISTURE IS ADVECTED INTO
THE CWA.

GIVEN DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE
SUPERBLEND OF MODELS SEEMED TO HANDLE POPS AND OTHER PARAMETERS
FAIRLY WELL. THE ONLY MAJOR ADJUSTMENT TO THE MODEL BLEND WAS TO
UNDERCUT POPS SOME DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS DUE TO LOSS OF
INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH THE SUPERBLEND 12 HOUR GRIDS ARE
JUST NOT CAPABLE OF PICKING UP ON. TEMPS...WINDS...AND CLOUD COVER
ALL SEEMED QUITE REASONABLE AND WITHIN GOOD AGREEMENT OF SURROUNDING
OFFICES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

IFR OR WORSE FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN PLAGUE THE VALLEYS THROUGH
13Z...BEFORE DISSIPATING. SME WILL BE HIT HARD...WITH AIRFIELD
MINIMUMS LIKELY HOLDING ON THROUGH DAWN. EXPECT MVFR FOR THE REST
OF THE TAF SITES...HOWEVER LOZ COULD ALSO POTENTIALLY GO DOWN TO
IFR OR LOWER...GIVEN THE CLEARING TRENDS. ONCE THE FOG
DISSIPATES...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WARRANTING AT LEAST A VCTS MENTION AT ALL
LOCATIONS FOR NOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN AT AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.

&&



&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN





000
FXUS63 KJKL 290757
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
357 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY ALIGNED NORTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER. EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS ON THE MORE HUMID SIDE OF
THE BOUNDARY...WITH THE AIR MASS NOTICEABLY MORE STICKY COMPARED
TO THE LAST FEW DAYS. A WEAK IMPULSE OR TWO WILL ONCE AGAIN PASS
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD...AND THE TROUGH ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE
TRAJECTORY OF THESE IMPULSES...HOWEVER GIVEN THE WEAKER CAP IN
PLACE AND LIKELY MORE INSTABILITY BUILDING TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...SCATTERED CONVECTION SEEMS LIKE A GOOD BET. HIGHS
WILL BE WARMER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...WITH LESS CLOUDS...GENERALLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

CONVECTION WILL DIE OFF WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING TONIGHT...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...AND PATCHY
FOG SETTING UP...PARTICULARLY AT LOCATIONS THAT SEE SUSTAINED
RAINFALL. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY ON SATURDAY...HOWEVER THERE ALSO BE DRIER AIR IN THE LOW TO
MID-LEVELS. THIS WILL KEEP MORE OF A GRADIENT OF POPS ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH BETTER STORM CHANCES NEAR I-64...AND LESSER CHANCES TO
THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S IN THE
NORTH...TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN




000
FXUS63 KJKL 290757
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
357 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY ALIGNED NORTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER. EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS ON THE MORE HUMID SIDE OF
THE BOUNDARY...WITH THE AIR MASS NOTICEABLY MORE STICKY COMPARED
TO THE LAST FEW DAYS. A WEAK IMPULSE OR TWO WILL ONCE AGAIN PASS
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD...AND THE TROUGH ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE
TRAJECTORY OF THESE IMPULSES...HOWEVER GIVEN THE WEAKER CAP IN
PLACE AND LIKELY MORE INSTABILITY BUILDING TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...SCATTERED CONVECTION SEEMS LIKE A GOOD BET. HIGHS
WILL BE WARMER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...WITH LESS CLOUDS...GENERALLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

CONVECTION WILL DIE OFF WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING TONIGHT...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...AND PATCHY
FOG SETTING UP...PARTICULARLY AT LOCATIONS THAT SEE SUSTAINED
RAINFALL. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY ON SATURDAY...HOWEVER THERE ALSO BE DRIER AIR IN THE LOW TO
MID-LEVELS. THIS WILL KEEP MORE OF A GRADIENT OF POPS ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH BETTER STORM CHANCES NEAR I-64...AND LESSER CHANCES TO
THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S IN THE
NORTH...TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN





000
FXUS63 KJKL 290653 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
253 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 253 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVED NORTH ALONG THE
WESTERN FRINGE OF OUR AREA...HOWEVER THESE HAVE DISSIPATED IN THE
LAST HOUR...AND THERE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE A POP MINIMUM
THROUGH THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS...BEFORE A SLIGHT UPTICK MAY ONCE
AGAIN OCCUR TOWARDS DAWN. FRESHENED UP SOME OF THE TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS BASED ON THE CURRENT TRENDS AND ALSO ALLOWED FOR A
BIT LESS CLOUD COVER WITH MUCH OF THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
THINNING OUT WITH TIME...HOWEVER IN GENERAL THE FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1000 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS SO HAVE REMOVED THUNDER FROM THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT
AS WELL AS BUMPED POPS DOWN. ALSO UPDATED TEMP GRIDS TO REFLECT
MOST RECENT OBS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 710 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA THIS
EVENING MAINLY AFFECTING OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. EXPECT THESE
SHOWERS SHOULD WANE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. IN TERMS OF THE FORECAST...HAVE ALIGNED T AND TD
GRIDS TO REFLECT MOST RECENT OBS. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK FOR TONIGHT. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN THROUGH THE AREA -
AWASH IN A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS. ALOFT - AN MCV IS MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY. THIS IS SUPPORTING
A LARGE AREA OF THICK CIRRUS IN THE FORM OF DEBRIS CLOUDS COVERING
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. THIS HAS ALSO SUPPORTED AN AREA
OF LIGHT RAIN BENEATH THE THICK CLOUDS...LIKEWISE SUPPRESSING
TEMPERATURES KEEPING THEM IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. ON THE FRINGES OF
THIS AREA...THE CLOUDS ARE MORE CUMULIFORM AND TEMPERATURES HAVE
RISEN INTO THE 80S. THESE CONDITIONS ARE MORE CONDUCIVE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS...THOUGH SO FAR IT HAS BEEN SLOW GOING...
DESPITE AN UPTICK IN THE STRENGTH OF SHOWERS ALONG THE VIRGINIA
BORDER. THROUGHOUT THE AREA...WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WHILE DEWPOINTS HOLD IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A MINOR CONVECTIVELY
INDUCED SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY
DURING THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING
THROUGH GENERALLY HIGH HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
NATION. THESE HEIGHTS WILL HOLD THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT A TROUGH
DOES APPROACH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID LEVELS ON THE WX
THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WILL BE MINIMAL IN COMPARISON TO THE DIURNAL
CYCLE. AS SUCH...HAVE FOLLOWED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS OF
THE HRRR AND NAM12.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN
THROUGH THE EVENING...THOUGH THE SLOW PROGRESS OF THE MCV MAY
SUSTAIN SOME SHOWERS BENEATH IT THROUGH THE NIGHT. PATCHY FOG...
LOCALLY DENSE...CAN BE ANTICIPATED AGAIN TONIGHT IN LOCATIONS THAT
SEE GOOD CLEARING AND THAT HAD PICKED UP SOME RAIN EARLIER IN THE
DAY. FOR FRIDAY THE ONLY LIMITATION ON THE CONVECTION DEVELOPING
WILL BE A LACK OF A TRIGGER AS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY AROUND. THE NAM12 AND ECMWF/GFS DO SHOW A WAVE OF
CONVECTION PASSING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
HELPING TO JUSTIFY OUR HIGHER POPS FORECAST THAN THIS AFTERNOON.
SIMILAR TO TONIGHT...EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING AS THE CONVECTION
WANES ALLOWING FOR PATCHY VALLEY FOG TO FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
LINGER INTO DAWN.

USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
INTO FRIDAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY. MADE SOME MINOR RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES
FOR LOWS AND HOURLY TEMPS EACH NIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP
SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF THE DRIER MAV AND WETTER MET GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A MORE EXAGGERATED DIURNAL CYCLE IN
THE HOURLY POPS/WX GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

RIDGING WILL DAMPEN OUT A BIT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY...WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR LESS ACTIVITY WILL BE SATURDAY...BUT
BY SUNDAY...FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE VIRTUALLY OVERHEAD AND WEATHER
LOOKS VERY UNSETTLED. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN  DEVELOP
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
SOME WEAK IMPULSES KEEPING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. BY WEEKS END...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD
BACK OVER THE REGION WITH HEIGHTS AGAIN ON THE INCREASE.
HOWEVER...AN AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
BENEATH THE RIDGE AS WE SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE. HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WELL INTO NEXT WEEK WITH 80S
EXPECTED. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 60S. NO REAL
SIGNS OF ANY COOL DOWNS ON THE HORIZON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

IFR OR WORSE FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN PLAGUE THE VALLEYS THROUGH
13Z...BEFORE DISSIPATING. SME WILL BE HIT HARD...WITH AIRFIELD
MINIMUMS LIKELY HOLDING ON THROUGH DAWN. EXPECT MVFR FOR THE REST
OF THE TAF SITES...HOWEVER LOZ COULD ALSO POTENTIALLY GO DOWN TO
IFR OR LOWER...GIVEN THE CLEARING TRENDS. ONCE THE FOG
DISSIPATES...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WARRANTING AT LEAST A VCTS MENTION AT ALL
LOCATIONS FOR NOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN AT AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN




000
FXUS63 KJKL 290653 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
253 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 253 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVED NORTH ALONG THE
WESTERN FRINGE OF OUR AREA...HOWEVER THESE HAVE DISSIPATED IN THE
LAST HOUR...AND THERE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE A POP MINIMUM
THROUGH THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS...BEFORE A SLIGHT UPTICK MAY ONCE
AGAIN OCCUR TOWARDS DAWN. FRESHENED UP SOME OF THE TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS BASED ON THE CURRENT TRENDS AND ALSO ALLOWED FOR A
BIT LESS CLOUD COVER WITH MUCH OF THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
THINNING OUT WITH TIME...HOWEVER IN GENERAL THE FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1000 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS SO HAVE REMOVED THUNDER FROM THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT
AS WELL AS BUMPED POPS DOWN. ALSO UPDATED TEMP GRIDS TO REFLECT
MOST RECENT OBS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 710 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA THIS
EVENING MAINLY AFFECTING OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. EXPECT THESE
SHOWERS SHOULD WANE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. IN TERMS OF THE FORECAST...HAVE ALIGNED T AND TD
GRIDS TO REFLECT MOST RECENT OBS. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK FOR TONIGHT. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN THROUGH THE AREA -
AWASH IN A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS. ALOFT - AN MCV IS MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY. THIS IS SUPPORTING
A LARGE AREA OF THICK CIRRUS IN THE FORM OF DEBRIS CLOUDS COVERING
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. THIS HAS ALSO SUPPORTED AN AREA
OF LIGHT RAIN BENEATH THE THICK CLOUDS...LIKEWISE SUPPRESSING
TEMPERATURES KEEPING THEM IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. ON THE FRINGES OF
THIS AREA...THE CLOUDS ARE MORE CUMULIFORM AND TEMPERATURES HAVE
RISEN INTO THE 80S. THESE CONDITIONS ARE MORE CONDUCIVE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS...THOUGH SO FAR IT HAS BEEN SLOW GOING...
DESPITE AN UPTICK IN THE STRENGTH OF SHOWERS ALONG THE VIRGINIA
BORDER. THROUGHOUT THE AREA...WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WHILE DEWPOINTS HOLD IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A MINOR CONVECTIVELY
INDUCED SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY
DURING THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING
THROUGH GENERALLY HIGH HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
NATION. THESE HEIGHTS WILL HOLD THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT A TROUGH
DOES APPROACH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID LEVELS ON THE WX
THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WILL BE MINIMAL IN COMPARISON TO THE DIURNAL
CYCLE. AS SUCH...HAVE FOLLOWED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS OF
THE HRRR AND NAM12.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN
THROUGH THE EVENING...THOUGH THE SLOW PROGRESS OF THE MCV MAY
SUSTAIN SOME SHOWERS BENEATH IT THROUGH THE NIGHT. PATCHY FOG...
LOCALLY DENSE...CAN BE ANTICIPATED AGAIN TONIGHT IN LOCATIONS THAT
SEE GOOD CLEARING AND THAT HAD PICKED UP SOME RAIN EARLIER IN THE
DAY. FOR FRIDAY THE ONLY LIMITATION ON THE CONVECTION DEVELOPING
WILL BE A LACK OF A TRIGGER AS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY AROUND. THE NAM12 AND ECMWF/GFS DO SHOW A WAVE OF
CONVECTION PASSING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
HELPING TO JUSTIFY OUR HIGHER POPS FORECAST THAN THIS AFTERNOON.
SIMILAR TO TONIGHT...EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING AS THE CONVECTION
WANES ALLOWING FOR PATCHY VALLEY FOG TO FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
LINGER INTO DAWN.

USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
INTO FRIDAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY. MADE SOME MINOR RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES
FOR LOWS AND HOURLY TEMPS EACH NIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP
SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF THE DRIER MAV AND WETTER MET GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A MORE EXAGGERATED DIURNAL CYCLE IN
THE HOURLY POPS/WX GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

RIDGING WILL DAMPEN OUT A BIT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY...WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR LESS ACTIVITY WILL BE SATURDAY...BUT
BY SUNDAY...FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE VIRTUALLY OVERHEAD AND WEATHER
LOOKS VERY UNSETTLED. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN  DEVELOP
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
SOME WEAK IMPULSES KEEPING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. BY WEEKS END...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD
BACK OVER THE REGION WITH HEIGHTS AGAIN ON THE INCREASE.
HOWEVER...AN AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
BENEATH THE RIDGE AS WE SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE. HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WELL INTO NEXT WEEK WITH 80S
EXPECTED. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 60S. NO REAL
SIGNS OF ANY COOL DOWNS ON THE HORIZON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

IFR OR WORSE FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN PLAGUE THE VALLEYS THROUGH
13Z...BEFORE DISSIPATING. SME WILL BE HIT HARD...WITH AIRFIELD
MINIMUMS LIKELY HOLDING ON THROUGH DAWN. EXPECT MVFR FOR THE REST
OF THE TAF SITES...HOWEVER LOZ COULD ALSO POTENTIALLY GO DOWN TO
IFR OR LOWER...GIVEN THE CLEARING TRENDS. ONCE THE FOG
DISSIPATES...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WARRANTING AT LEAST A VCTS MENTION AT ALL
LOCATIONS FOR NOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN AT AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN





000
FXUS63 KJKL 290200
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1000 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS SO HAVE REMOVED THUNDER FROM THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT
AS WELL AS BUMPED POPS DOWN. ALSO UPDATED TEMP GRIDS TO REFLECT
MOST RECENT OBS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 710 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA THIS
EVENING MAINLY AFFECTING OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. EXPECT THESE
SHOWERS SHOULD WANE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. IN TERMS OF THE FORECAST...HAVE ALIGNED T AND TD
GRIDS TO REFLECT MOST RECENT OBS. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK FOR TONIGHT. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN THROUGH THE AREA -
AWASH IN A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS. ALOFT - AN MCV IS MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY. THIS IS SUPPORTING
A LARGE AREA OF THICK CIRRUS IN THE FORM OF DEBRIS CLOUDS COVERING
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. THIS HAS ALSO SUPPORTED AN AREA
OF LIGHT RAIN BENEATH THE THICK CLOUDS...LIKEWISE SUPPRESSING
TEMPERATURES KEEPING THEM IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. ON THE FRINGES OF
THIS AREA...THE CLOUDS ARE MORE CUMULIFORM AND TEMPERATURES HAVE
RISEN INTO THE 80S. THESE CONDITIONS ARE MORE CONDUCIVE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS...THOUGH SO FAR IT HAS BEEN SLOW GOING...
DESPITE AN UPTICK IN THE STRENGTH OF SHOWERS ALONG THE VIRGINIA
BORDER. THROUGHOUT THE AREA...WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WHILE DEWPOINTS HOLD IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A MINOR CONVECTIVELY
INDUCED SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY
DURING THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING
THROUGH GENERALLY HIGH HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
NATION. THESE HEIGHTS WILL HOLD THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT A TROUGH
DOES APPROACH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID LEVELS ON THE WX
THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WILL BE MINIMAL IN COMPARISON TO THE DIURNAL
CYCLE. AS SUCH...HAVE FOLLOWED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS OF
THE HRRR AND NAM12.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN
THROUGH THE EVENING...THOUGH THE SLOW PROGRESS OF THE MCV MAY
SUSTAIN SOME SHOWERS BENEATH IT THROUGH THE NIGHT. PATCHY FOG...
LOCALLY DENSE...CAN BE ANTICIPATED AGAIN TONIGHT IN LOCATIONS THAT
SEE GOOD CLEARING AND THAT HAD PICKED UP SOME RAIN EARLIER IN THE
DAY. FOR FRIDAY THE ONLY LIMITATION ON THE CONVECTION DEVELOPING
WILL BE A LACK OF A TRIGGER AS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY AROUND. THE NAM12 AND ECMWF/GFS DO SHOW A WAVE OF
CONVECTION PASSING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
HELPING TO JUSTIFY OUR HIGHER POPS FORECAST THAN THIS AFTERNOON.
SIMILAR TO TONIGHT...EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING AS THE CONVECTION
WANES ALLOWING FOR PATCHY VALLEY FOG TO FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
LINGER INTO DAWN.

USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
INTO FRIDAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY. MADE SOME MINOR RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES
FOR LOWS AND HOURLY TEMPS EACH NIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP
SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF THE DRIER MAV AND WETTER MET GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A MORE EXAGGERATED DIURNAL CYCLE IN
THE HOURLY POPS/WX GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

RIDGING WILL DAMPEN OUT A BIT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY...WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR LESS ACTIVITY WILL BE SATURDAY...BUT
BY SUNDAY...FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE VIRTUALLY OVERHEAD AND WEATHER
LOOKS VERY UNSETTLED. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN  DEVELOP
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
SOME WEAK IMPULSES KEEPING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. BY WEEKS END...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD
BACK OVER THE REGION WITH HEIGHTS AGAIN ON THE INCREASE.
HOWEVER...AN AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
BENEATH THE RIDGE AS WE SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE. HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WELL INTO NEXT WEEK WITH 80S
EXPECTED. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 60S. NO REAL
SIGNS OF ANY COOL DOWNS ON THE HORIZON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 710 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING...MAINLY AFFECTING SME AND POSSIBLY LOZ OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE...HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION POSSIBLE
AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT FOG FOR THE VALLEYS
AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT MOST OF THE TAF SITES SHOULD STAY CLEAR. DID
ADD A TEMPO FOR SOME MVFR VIS WITH BR AT THE SME SITE FOR LATE
TONIGHT WHERE RAIN FROM THE PAST DAY MAY CONTRIBUTE ENOUGH EXTRA
MOISTURE FOR ITS DEVELOPMENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JVM/GREIF




000
FXUS63 KJKL 290200
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1000 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS SO HAVE REMOVED THUNDER FROM THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT
AS WELL AS BUMPED POPS DOWN. ALSO UPDATED TEMP GRIDS TO REFLECT
MOST RECENT OBS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 710 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA THIS
EVENING MAINLY AFFECTING OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. EXPECT THESE
SHOWERS SHOULD WANE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. IN TERMS OF THE FORECAST...HAVE ALIGNED T AND TD
GRIDS TO REFLECT MOST RECENT OBS. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK FOR TONIGHT. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN THROUGH THE AREA -
AWASH IN A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS. ALOFT - AN MCV IS MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY. THIS IS SUPPORTING
A LARGE AREA OF THICK CIRRUS IN THE FORM OF DEBRIS CLOUDS COVERING
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. THIS HAS ALSO SUPPORTED AN AREA
OF LIGHT RAIN BENEATH THE THICK CLOUDS...LIKEWISE SUPPRESSING
TEMPERATURES KEEPING THEM IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. ON THE FRINGES OF
THIS AREA...THE CLOUDS ARE MORE CUMULIFORM AND TEMPERATURES HAVE
RISEN INTO THE 80S. THESE CONDITIONS ARE MORE CONDUCIVE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS...THOUGH SO FAR IT HAS BEEN SLOW GOING...
DESPITE AN UPTICK IN THE STRENGTH OF SHOWERS ALONG THE VIRGINIA
BORDER. THROUGHOUT THE AREA...WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WHILE DEWPOINTS HOLD IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A MINOR CONVECTIVELY
INDUCED SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY
DURING THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING
THROUGH GENERALLY HIGH HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
NATION. THESE HEIGHTS WILL HOLD THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT A TROUGH
DOES APPROACH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID LEVELS ON THE WX
THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WILL BE MINIMAL IN COMPARISON TO THE DIURNAL
CYCLE. AS SUCH...HAVE FOLLOWED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS OF
THE HRRR AND NAM12.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN
THROUGH THE EVENING...THOUGH THE SLOW PROGRESS OF THE MCV MAY
SUSTAIN SOME SHOWERS BENEATH IT THROUGH THE NIGHT. PATCHY FOG...
LOCALLY DENSE...CAN BE ANTICIPATED AGAIN TONIGHT IN LOCATIONS THAT
SEE GOOD CLEARING AND THAT HAD PICKED UP SOME RAIN EARLIER IN THE
DAY. FOR FRIDAY THE ONLY LIMITATION ON THE CONVECTION DEVELOPING
WILL BE A LACK OF A TRIGGER AS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY AROUND. THE NAM12 AND ECMWF/GFS DO SHOW A WAVE OF
CONVECTION PASSING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
HELPING TO JUSTIFY OUR HIGHER POPS FORECAST THAN THIS AFTERNOON.
SIMILAR TO TONIGHT...EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING AS THE CONVECTION
WANES ALLOWING FOR PATCHY VALLEY FOG TO FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
LINGER INTO DAWN.

USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
INTO FRIDAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY. MADE SOME MINOR RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES
FOR LOWS AND HOURLY TEMPS EACH NIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP
SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF THE DRIER MAV AND WETTER MET GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A MORE EXAGGERATED DIURNAL CYCLE IN
THE HOURLY POPS/WX GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

RIDGING WILL DAMPEN OUT A BIT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY...WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR LESS ACTIVITY WILL BE SATURDAY...BUT
BY SUNDAY...FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE VIRTUALLY OVERHEAD AND WEATHER
LOOKS VERY UNSETTLED. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN  DEVELOP
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
SOME WEAK IMPULSES KEEPING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. BY WEEKS END...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD
BACK OVER THE REGION WITH HEIGHTS AGAIN ON THE INCREASE.
HOWEVER...AN AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
BENEATH THE RIDGE AS WE SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE. HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WELL INTO NEXT WEEK WITH 80S
EXPECTED. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 60S. NO REAL
SIGNS OF ANY COOL DOWNS ON THE HORIZON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 710 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING...MAINLY AFFECTING SME AND POSSIBLY LOZ OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE...HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION POSSIBLE
AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT FOG FOR THE VALLEYS
AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT MOST OF THE TAF SITES SHOULD STAY CLEAR. DID
ADD A TEMPO FOR SOME MVFR VIS WITH BR AT THE SME SITE FOR LATE
TONIGHT WHERE RAIN FROM THE PAST DAY MAY CONTRIBUTE ENOUGH EXTRA
MOISTURE FOR ITS DEVELOPMENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JVM/GREIF




000
FXUS63 KJKL 290200
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1000 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS SO HAVE REMOVED THUNDER FROM THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT
AS WELL AS BUMPED POPS DOWN. ALSO UPDATED TEMP GRIDS TO REFLECT
MOST RECENT OBS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 710 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA THIS
EVENING MAINLY AFFECTING OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. EXPECT THESE
SHOWERS SHOULD WANE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. IN TERMS OF THE FORECAST...HAVE ALIGNED T AND TD
GRIDS TO REFLECT MOST RECENT OBS. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK FOR TONIGHT. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN THROUGH THE AREA -
AWASH IN A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS. ALOFT - AN MCV IS MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY. THIS IS SUPPORTING
A LARGE AREA OF THICK CIRRUS IN THE FORM OF DEBRIS CLOUDS COVERING
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. THIS HAS ALSO SUPPORTED AN AREA
OF LIGHT RAIN BENEATH THE THICK CLOUDS...LIKEWISE SUPPRESSING
TEMPERATURES KEEPING THEM IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. ON THE FRINGES OF
THIS AREA...THE CLOUDS ARE MORE CUMULIFORM AND TEMPERATURES HAVE
RISEN INTO THE 80S. THESE CONDITIONS ARE MORE CONDUCIVE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS...THOUGH SO FAR IT HAS BEEN SLOW GOING...
DESPITE AN UPTICK IN THE STRENGTH OF SHOWERS ALONG THE VIRGINIA
BORDER. THROUGHOUT THE AREA...WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WHILE DEWPOINTS HOLD IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A MINOR CONVECTIVELY
INDUCED SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY
DURING THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING
THROUGH GENERALLY HIGH HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
NATION. THESE HEIGHTS WILL HOLD THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT A TROUGH
DOES APPROACH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID LEVELS ON THE WX
THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WILL BE MINIMAL IN COMPARISON TO THE DIURNAL
CYCLE. AS SUCH...HAVE FOLLOWED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS OF
THE HRRR AND NAM12.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN
THROUGH THE EVENING...THOUGH THE SLOW PROGRESS OF THE MCV MAY
SUSTAIN SOME SHOWERS BENEATH IT THROUGH THE NIGHT. PATCHY FOG...
LOCALLY DENSE...CAN BE ANTICIPATED AGAIN TONIGHT IN LOCATIONS THAT
SEE GOOD CLEARING AND THAT HAD PICKED UP SOME RAIN EARLIER IN THE
DAY. FOR FRIDAY THE ONLY LIMITATION ON THE CONVECTION DEVELOPING
WILL BE A LACK OF A TRIGGER AS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY AROUND. THE NAM12 AND ECMWF/GFS DO SHOW A WAVE OF
CONVECTION PASSING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
HELPING TO JUSTIFY OUR HIGHER POPS FORECAST THAN THIS AFTERNOON.
SIMILAR TO TONIGHT...EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING AS THE CONVECTION
WANES ALLOWING FOR PATCHY VALLEY FOG TO FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
LINGER INTO DAWN.

USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
INTO FRIDAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY. MADE SOME MINOR RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES
FOR LOWS AND HOURLY TEMPS EACH NIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP
SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF THE DRIER MAV AND WETTER MET GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A MORE EXAGGERATED DIURNAL CYCLE IN
THE HOURLY POPS/WX GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

RIDGING WILL DAMPEN OUT A BIT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY...WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR LESS ACTIVITY WILL BE SATURDAY...BUT
BY SUNDAY...FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE VIRTUALLY OVERHEAD AND WEATHER
LOOKS VERY UNSETTLED. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN  DEVELOP
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
SOME WEAK IMPULSES KEEPING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. BY WEEKS END...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD
BACK OVER THE REGION WITH HEIGHTS AGAIN ON THE INCREASE.
HOWEVER...AN AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
BENEATH THE RIDGE AS WE SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE. HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WELL INTO NEXT WEEK WITH 80S
EXPECTED. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 60S. NO REAL
SIGNS OF ANY COOL DOWNS ON THE HORIZON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 710 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING...MAINLY AFFECTING SME AND POSSIBLY LOZ OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE...HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION POSSIBLE
AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT FOG FOR THE VALLEYS
AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT MOST OF THE TAF SITES SHOULD STAY CLEAR. DID
ADD A TEMPO FOR SOME MVFR VIS WITH BR AT THE SME SITE FOR LATE
TONIGHT WHERE RAIN FROM THE PAST DAY MAY CONTRIBUTE ENOUGH EXTRA
MOISTURE FOR ITS DEVELOPMENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JVM/GREIF





000
FXUS63 KJKL 282310
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
710 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 710 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA THIS
EVENING MAINLY AFFECTING OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. EXPECT THESE
SHOWERS SHOULD WANE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. IN TERMS OF THE FORECAST...HAVE ALIGNED T AND TD
GRIDS TO REFLECT MOST RECENT OBS. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK FOR TONIGHT. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN THROUGH THE AREA -
AWASH IN A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS. ALOFT - AN MCV IS MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY. THIS IS SUPPORTING
A LARGE AREA OF THICK CIRRUS IN THE FORM OF DEBRIS CLOUDS COVERING
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. THIS HAS ALSO SUPPORTED AN AREA
OF LIGHT RAIN BENEATH THE THICK CLOUDS...LIKEWISE SUPPRESSING
TEMPERATURES KEEPING THEM IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. ON THE FRINGES OF
THIS AREA...THE CLOUDS ARE MORE CUMULIFORM AND TEMPERATURES HAVE
RISEN INTO THE 80S. THESE CONDITIONS ARE MORE CONDUCIVE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS...THOUGH SO FAR IT HAS BEEN SLOW GOING...
DESPITE AN UPTICK IN THE STRENGTH OF SHOWERS ALONG THE VIRGINIA
BORDER. THROUGHOUT THE AREA...WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WHILE DEWPOINTS HOLD IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A MINOR CONVECTIVELY
INDUCED SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY
DURING THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING
THROUGH GENERALLY HIGH HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
NATION. THESE HEIGHTS WILL HOLD THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT A TROUGH
DOES APPROACH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID LEVELS ON THE WX
THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WILL BE MINIMAL IN COMPARISON TO THE DIURNAL
CYCLE. AS SUCH...HAVE FOLLOWED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS OF
THE HRRR AND NAM12.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN
THROUGH THE EVENING...THOUGH THE SLOW PROGRESS OF THE MCV MAY
SUSTAIN SOME SHOWERS BENEATH IT THROUGH THE NIGHT. PATCHY FOG...
LOCALLY DENSE...CAN BE ANTICIPATED AGAIN TONIGHT IN LOCATIONS THAT
SEE GOOD CLEARING AND THAT HAD PICKED UP SOME RAIN EARLIER IN THE
DAY. FOR FRIDAY THE ONLY LIMITATION ON THE CONVECTION DEVELOPING
WILL BE A LACK OF A TRIGGER AS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY AROUND. THE NAM12 AND ECMWF/GFS DO SHOW A WAVE OF
CONVECTION PASSING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
HELPING TO JUSTIFY OUR HIGHER POPS FORECAST THAN THIS AFTERNOON.
SIMILAR TO TONIGHT...EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING AS THE CONVECTION
WANES ALLOWING FOR PATCHY VALLEY FOG TO FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
LINGER INTO DAWN.

USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
INTO FRIDAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY. MADE SOME MINOR RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES
FOR LOWS AND HOURLY TEMPS EACH NIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP
SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF THE DRIER MAV AND WETTER MET GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A MORE EXAGGERATED DIURNAL CYCLE IN
THE HOURLY POPS/WX GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

RIDGING WILL DAMPEN OUT A BIT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY...WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR LESS ACTIVITY WILL BE SATURDAY...BUT
BY SUNDAY...FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE VIRTUALLY OVERHEAD AND WEATHER
LOOKS VERY UNSETTLED. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN  DEVELOP
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
SOME WEAK IMPULSES KEEPING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. BY WEEKS END...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD
BACK OVER THE REGION WITH HEIGHTS AGAIN ON THE INCREASE.
HOWEVER...AN AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
BENEATH THE RIDGE AS WE SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE. HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WELL INTO NEXT WEEK WITH 80S
EXPECTED. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 60S. NO REAL
SIGNS OF ANY COOL DOWNS ON THE HORIZON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 710 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING...MAINLY AFFECTING SME AND POSSIBLY LOZ OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE...HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION POSSIBLE
AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT FOG FOR THE VALLEYS
AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT MOST OF THE TAF SITES SHOULD STAY CLEAR. DID
ADD A TEMPO FOR SOME MVFR VIS WITH BR AT THE SME SITE FOR LATE
TONIGHT WHERE RAIN FROM THE PAST DAY MAY CONTRIBUTE ENOUGH EXTRA
MOISTURE FOR ITS DEVELOPMENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JVM/GREIF





000
FXUS63 KJKL 281930 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
330 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN THROUGH THE AREA -
AWASH IN A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS. ALOFT - AN MCV IS MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY. THIS IS SUPPORTING
A LARGE AREA OF THICK CIRRUS IN THE FORM OF DEBRIS CLOUDS COVERING
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. THIS HAS ALSO SUPPORTED AN AREA
OF LIGHT RAIN BENEATH THE THICK CLOUDS...LIKEWISE SUPPRESSING
TEMPERATURES KEEPING THEM IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. ON THE FRINGES OF
THIS AREA...THE CLOUDS ARE MORE CUMULIFORM AND TEMPERATURES HAVE
RISEN INTO THE 80S. THESE CONDITIONS ARE MORE CONDUCIVE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS...THOUGH SO FAR IT HAS BEEN SLOW GOING...
DESPITE AN UPTICK IN THE STRENGTH OF SHOWERS ALONG THE VIRGINIA
BORDER. THROUGHOUT THE AREA...WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WHILE DEWPOINTS HOLD IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A MINOR CONVECTIVELY
INDUCED SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY
DURING THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING
THROUGH GENERALLY HIGH HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
NATION. THESE HEIGHTS WILL HOLD THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT A TROUGH
DOES APPROACH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID LEVELS ON THE WX
THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WILL BE MINIMAL IN COMPARISON TO THE DIURNAL
CYCLE. AS SUCH...HAVE FOLLOWED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS OF
THE HRRR AND NAM12.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN
THROUGH THE EVENING...THOUGH THE SLOW PROGRESS OF THE MCV MAY
SUSTAIN SOME SHOWERS BENEATH IT THROUGH THE NIGHT. PATCHY FOG...
LOCALLY DENSE...CAN BE ANTICIPATED AGAIN TONIGHT IN LOCATIONS THAT
SEE GOOD CLEARING AND THAT HAD PICKED UP SOME RAIN EARLIER IN THE
DAY. FOR FRIDAY THE ONLY LIMITATION ON THE CONVECTION DEVELOPING
WILL BE A LACK OF A TRIGGER AS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY AROUND. THE NAM12 AND ECMWF/GFS DO SHOW A WAVE OF
CONVECTION PASSING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
HELPING TO JUSTIFY OUR HIGHER POPS FORECAST THAN THIS AFTERNOON.
SIMILAR TO TONIGHT...EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING AS THE CONVECTION
WANES ALLOWING FOR PATCHY VALLEY FOG TO FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
LINGER INTO DAWN.

USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
INTO FRIDAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY. MADE SOME MINOR RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES
FOR LOWS AND HOURLY TEMPS EACH NIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP
SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF THE DRIER MAV AND WETTER MET GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A MORE EXAGGERATED DIURNAL CYCLE IN
THE HOURLY POPS/WX GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

RIDGING WILL DAMPEN OUT A BIT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY...WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR LESS ACTIVITY WILL BE SATURDAY...BUT
BY SUNDAY...FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE VIRTUALLY OVERHEAD AND WEATHER
LOOKS VERY UNSETTLED. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN  DEVELOP
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
SOME WEAK IMPULSES KEEPING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. BY WEEKS END...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD
BACK OVER THE REGION WITH HEIGHTS AGAIN ON THE INCREASE.
HOWEVER...AN AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
BENEATH THE RIDGE AS WE SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE. HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WELL INTO NEXT WEEK WITH 80S
EXPECTED. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 60S. NO REAL
SIGNS OF ANY COOL DOWNS ON THE HORIZON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION AROUND MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. HAVE INTRODUCED VCTS FOR THIS THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON AND AGAIN STARTING AT MIDDAY FRIDAY. CANNOT RULE
OUT FOG FOR THE VALLEYS AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT MOST OF THE TAF SITES
SHOULD STAY CLEAR. DID ADD A TEMPO FOR SOME MVFR VIS WITH BR AT
THE SME SITE FOR LATE TONIGHT WHERE RAIN FROM THE PAST DAY MAY
CONTRIBUTE ENOUGH EXTRA MOISTURE FOR ITS DEVELOPMENT. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF




000
FXUS63 KJKL 281930 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
330 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN THROUGH THE AREA -
AWASH IN A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS. ALOFT - AN MCV IS MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY. THIS IS SUPPORTING
A LARGE AREA OF THICK CIRRUS IN THE FORM OF DEBRIS CLOUDS COVERING
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. THIS HAS ALSO SUPPORTED AN AREA
OF LIGHT RAIN BENEATH THE THICK CLOUDS...LIKEWISE SUPPRESSING
TEMPERATURES KEEPING THEM IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. ON THE FRINGES OF
THIS AREA...THE CLOUDS ARE MORE CUMULIFORM AND TEMPERATURES HAVE
RISEN INTO THE 80S. THESE CONDITIONS ARE MORE CONDUCIVE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS...THOUGH SO FAR IT HAS BEEN SLOW GOING...
DESPITE AN UPTICK IN THE STRENGTH OF SHOWERS ALONG THE VIRGINIA
BORDER. THROUGHOUT THE AREA...WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WHILE DEWPOINTS HOLD IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A MINOR CONVECTIVELY
INDUCED SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY
DURING THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING
THROUGH GENERALLY HIGH HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
NATION. THESE HEIGHTS WILL HOLD THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT A TROUGH
DOES APPROACH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID LEVELS ON THE WX
THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WILL BE MINIMAL IN COMPARISON TO THE DIURNAL
CYCLE. AS SUCH...HAVE FOLLOWED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS OF
THE HRRR AND NAM12.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN
THROUGH THE EVENING...THOUGH THE SLOW PROGRESS OF THE MCV MAY
SUSTAIN SOME SHOWERS BENEATH IT THROUGH THE NIGHT. PATCHY FOG...
LOCALLY DENSE...CAN BE ANTICIPATED AGAIN TONIGHT IN LOCATIONS THAT
SEE GOOD CLEARING AND THAT HAD PICKED UP SOME RAIN EARLIER IN THE
DAY. FOR FRIDAY THE ONLY LIMITATION ON THE CONVECTION DEVELOPING
WILL BE A LACK OF A TRIGGER AS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY AROUND. THE NAM12 AND ECMWF/GFS DO SHOW A WAVE OF
CONVECTION PASSING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
HELPING TO JUSTIFY OUR HIGHER POPS FORECAST THAN THIS AFTERNOON.
SIMILAR TO TONIGHT...EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING AS THE CONVECTION
WANES ALLOWING FOR PATCHY VALLEY FOG TO FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
LINGER INTO DAWN.

USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
INTO FRIDAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY. MADE SOME MINOR RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES
FOR LOWS AND HOURLY TEMPS EACH NIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP
SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF THE DRIER MAV AND WETTER MET GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A MORE EXAGGERATED DIURNAL CYCLE IN
THE HOURLY POPS/WX GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

RIDGING WILL DAMPEN OUT A BIT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY...WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR LESS ACTIVITY WILL BE SATURDAY...BUT
BY SUNDAY...FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE VIRTUALLY OVERHEAD AND WEATHER
LOOKS VERY UNSETTLED. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN  DEVELOP
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
SOME WEAK IMPULSES KEEPING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. BY WEEKS END...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD
BACK OVER THE REGION WITH HEIGHTS AGAIN ON THE INCREASE.
HOWEVER...AN AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
BENEATH THE RIDGE AS WE SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE. HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WELL INTO NEXT WEEK WITH 80S
EXPECTED. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 60S. NO REAL
SIGNS OF ANY COOL DOWNS ON THE HORIZON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION AROUND MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. HAVE INTRODUCED VCTS FOR THIS THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON AND AGAIN STARTING AT MIDDAY FRIDAY. CANNOT RULE
OUT FOG FOR THE VALLEYS AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT MOST OF THE TAF SITES
SHOULD STAY CLEAR. DID ADD A TEMPO FOR SOME MVFR VIS WITH BR AT
THE SME SITE FOR LATE TONIGHT WHERE RAIN FROM THE PAST DAY MAY
CONTRIBUTE ENOUGH EXTRA MOISTURE FOR ITS DEVELOPMENT. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF





000
FXUS63 KJKL 281930 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
330 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN THROUGH THE AREA -
AWASH IN A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS. ALOFT - AN MCV IS MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY. THIS IS SUPPORTING
A LARGE AREA OF THICK CIRRUS IN THE FORM OF DEBRIS CLOUDS COVERING
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. THIS HAS ALSO SUPPORTED AN AREA
OF LIGHT RAIN BENEATH THE THICK CLOUDS...LIKEWISE SUPPRESSING
TEMPERATURES KEEPING THEM IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. ON THE FRINGES OF
THIS AREA...THE CLOUDS ARE MORE CUMULIFORM AND TEMPERATURES HAVE
RISEN INTO THE 80S. THESE CONDITIONS ARE MORE CONDUCIVE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS...THOUGH SO FAR IT HAS BEEN SLOW GOING...
DESPITE AN UPTICK IN THE STRENGTH OF SHOWERS ALONG THE VIRGINIA
BORDER. THROUGHOUT THE AREA...WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WHILE DEWPOINTS HOLD IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A MINOR CONVECTIVELY
INDUCED SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY
DURING THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING
THROUGH GENERALLY HIGH HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
NATION. THESE HEIGHTS WILL HOLD THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT A TROUGH
DOES APPROACH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID LEVELS ON THE WX
THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WILL BE MINIMAL IN COMPARISON TO THE DIURNAL
CYCLE. AS SUCH...HAVE FOLLOWED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS OF
THE HRRR AND NAM12.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN
THROUGH THE EVENING...THOUGH THE SLOW PROGRESS OF THE MCV MAY
SUSTAIN SOME SHOWERS BENEATH IT THROUGH THE NIGHT. PATCHY FOG...
LOCALLY DENSE...CAN BE ANTICIPATED AGAIN TONIGHT IN LOCATIONS THAT
SEE GOOD CLEARING AND THAT HAD PICKED UP SOME RAIN EARLIER IN THE
DAY. FOR FRIDAY THE ONLY LIMITATION ON THE CONVECTION DEVELOPING
WILL BE A LACK OF A TRIGGER AS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY AROUND. THE NAM12 AND ECMWF/GFS DO SHOW A WAVE OF
CONVECTION PASSING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
HELPING TO JUSTIFY OUR HIGHER POPS FORECAST THAN THIS AFTERNOON.
SIMILAR TO TONIGHT...EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING AS THE CONVECTION
WANES ALLOWING FOR PATCHY VALLEY FOG TO FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
LINGER INTO DAWN.

USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
INTO FRIDAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY. MADE SOME MINOR RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES
FOR LOWS AND HOURLY TEMPS EACH NIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP
SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF THE DRIER MAV AND WETTER MET GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A MORE EXAGGERATED DIURNAL CYCLE IN
THE HOURLY POPS/WX GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

RIDGING WILL DAMPEN OUT A BIT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY...WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR LESS ACTIVITY WILL BE SATURDAY...BUT
BY SUNDAY...FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE VIRTUALLY OVERHEAD AND WEATHER
LOOKS VERY UNSETTLED. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN  DEVELOP
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
SOME WEAK IMPULSES KEEPING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. BY WEEKS END...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD
BACK OVER THE REGION WITH HEIGHTS AGAIN ON THE INCREASE.
HOWEVER...AN AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
BENEATH THE RIDGE AS WE SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE. HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WELL INTO NEXT WEEK WITH 80S
EXPECTED. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 60S. NO REAL
SIGNS OF ANY COOL DOWNS ON THE HORIZON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION AROUND MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. HAVE INTRODUCED VCTS FOR THIS THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON AND AGAIN STARTING AT MIDDAY FRIDAY. CANNOT RULE
OUT FOG FOR THE VALLEYS AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT MOST OF THE TAF SITES
SHOULD STAY CLEAR. DID ADD A TEMPO FOR SOME MVFR VIS WITH BR AT
THE SME SITE FOR LATE TONIGHT WHERE RAIN FROM THE PAST DAY MAY
CONTRIBUTE ENOUGH EXTRA MOISTURE FOR ITS DEVELOPMENT. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF




000
FXUS63 KJKL 281830 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
230 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

PLENTY OF DEBRIS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING MCV LIFTING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY HAVE KEPT THE INSTABILITY
IN CHECK OVER THE AREA LIMITING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR THE
CWA SO FAR. HOWEVER...ON THE FRINGES OF THE AREA...ALONG THE
VIRGINIA BORDER...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP.
EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A BIT BETTER
COVERAGE BY LATE AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE NORTH AND EAST PARTS
OF THE AREA. WITH THAT SAID...THE HRRR DOES SEEM OVERDONE WITH
ITS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING GIVEN THE
CURRENT TRENDS. HAVE TWEAKED THE SKY AND POPS FOR THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS AND TRENDS...AS WELL AS THE T/TD GRIDS. THESE UPDATES
HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEN SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DIFFUSE BOUNDARY LYING WEST TO EAST
THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY WITHIN GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE. ALOFT -
HEIGHTS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL...BUT THE REMAINS OF A
SHORTWAVE IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE AREA...THOUGH
WEAKENING. ON SATELLITE...A DECK OF FAIRLY THICK AND OPAQUE HIGH
CLOUDS ARE FOUND OVER OUR WESTERN FLANK AND SPREADING EAST INTO
THE JKL CWA. THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE INSTABILITY
BUILDING THROUGH THE DAY AND COULD COUNTER ACT THE INFLUENCE OF
THE MID LEVEL WAVE WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES LATER IN THE
DAY WHEN THE CLOUDS START TO THIN AND BREAK UP...AND INSOLATION
MORE EFFECTIVELY MAKES IT TO THE SFC. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES
ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 60S UNDER THE CLOUDS...TO THE LOWER AND
MID 70S WITH SUNSHINE. DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING IN THE MOIST LOWER
AND MIDDLE 60S THROUGH THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS. HAVE UPDATED THE
GRIDS WITH THIS IN MIND...INCLUDED A DELAY TO THE RENEWAL OF
CONVECTION. ALSO FINE TUNED THE HOURLY T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST
SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE...OBS...AND TRENDS. THESE UPDATES HAVE BEEN
SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS...ALONG WITH A FRESHENED SET OF
ZONES...MAINLY TO DROP MENTION OF EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 657 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS SOME OF OUR FAR EASTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE RAIN SHOWERS THAT
ARE MOVING THROUGH MARTIN AND PIKE COUNTIES HAVE PRODUCED CLOSE TO
AN INCH OF RAIN OVER THE PAST HOUR TO 90 MINUTES. THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ANOTHER AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN BY 12Z THIS MORNING.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH OUT THE
MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO POP UP AROUND THE AREA AS WELL. GRAPHICAL NOWCASTS
HAVE BEEN ISSUED TO DEAL WITH ANY RAIN SHOWERS THAT WE HAVE
EXPERIENCED SO FAR THIS MORNING. THE LATEST OBS DATA HAS BEEN
INGESTED INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS...BUT
NOTHING THAT WOULD WARRANT ISSUING A NEW SET OF ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

NOT MUCH AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS REGARDING TIMING OF SHOWER
AND STORM INITIATION EARLY TODAY...OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE...AND
DURATION OF PRECIPITATION AFTER DARK THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THE LATEST MOS GUIDANCES HAS POPS RANGING FROM NOTHING TO 20 TO 30
PERCENT DEPENDING ON WHICH FORECAST SITE YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT.
THE ONLY FIRM TRIGGER FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY LOOKS TO BE A
WEAKENING AND ALREADY ILL DEFINED COLD FRONT. WITH A WARM AND
HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE...HOWEVER...AND SOME LIFT STILL AVAILABLE
ALONG THE FRONT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH THE BULK OF ACTIVITY
OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WHILE PEAK
HEATING IS STILL OCCURRING. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ON TRACK TO RUN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND TOMORROW DUE TO RELATIVELY UNMODIFIED
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS THAT IS SETTING ON TOP OF US. HIGHS TODAY
TOMORROW SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE MAXING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL GET FLATTENED OUT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS DEEPER TROUGHING SLIDES ACROSS THE U.S./CANADIAN
BORDER. RESIDUAL TROUGHING WILL SWING FROM THE ROCKIES TO ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...KEEPING THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING
ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THE BETTER CHANCE POPS WILL
OCCUR FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY
DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AND DAMPENS WITH TIME. BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A CUTOFF LOW WILL EMERGE AND DRIFT ALONG THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH RIDGING RE-ESTABLISHING ITSELF
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND MIDDLE APPALACHIANS. FOR EASTERN
KENTUCKY...THIS WILL MEAN LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...BUT STILL
NOT TOTALLY RAIN-FREE. THE BLENDED GUIDANCE OFFERED A REASONABLE
START TO THE POPS. DID NOT STRAY FAR FROM THE GIVEN VALUES DURING
THE PERIODS OF BETTER FORCING...HOWEVER DID CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT A
BIT DURING THE OVER-ACTIVE MODELED NIGHTTIME PERIODS WITH LESS
FORCING AVAILABLE. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE THE PASSING COLD
FRONT COOLS THINGS DOWN A FEW DEGREES TEMPORARILY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. READINGS WILL THEN RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS RIDGING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION AROUND MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. HAVE INTRODUCED VCTS FOR THIS THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON AND AGAIN STARTING AT MIDDAY FRIDAY. CANNOT RULE
OUT FOG FOR THE VALLEYS AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT MOST OF THE TAF SITES
SHOULD STAY CLEAR. DID ADD A TEMPO FOR SOME MVFR VIS WITH BR AT
THE SME SITE FOR LATE TONIGHT WHERE RAIN FROM THE PAST DAY MAY
CONTRIBUTE ENOUGH EXTRA MOISTURE FOR ITS DEVELOPMENT. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...GREIF





000
FXUS63 KJKL 281830 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
230 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

PLENTY OF DEBRIS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING MCV LIFTING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY HAVE KEPT THE INSTABILITY
IN CHECK OVER THE AREA LIMITING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR THE
CWA SO FAR. HOWEVER...ON THE FRINGES OF THE AREA...ALONG THE
VIRGINIA BORDER...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP.
EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A BIT BETTER
COVERAGE BY LATE AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE NORTH AND EAST PARTS
OF THE AREA. WITH THAT SAID...THE HRRR DOES SEEM OVERDONE WITH
ITS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING GIVEN THE
CURRENT TRENDS. HAVE TWEAKED THE SKY AND POPS FOR THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS AND TRENDS...AS WELL AS THE T/TD GRIDS. THESE UPDATES
HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEN SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DIFFUSE BOUNDARY LYING WEST TO EAST
THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY WITHIN GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE. ALOFT -
HEIGHTS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL...BUT THE REMAINS OF A
SHORTWAVE IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE AREA...THOUGH
WEAKENING. ON SATELLITE...A DECK OF FAIRLY THICK AND OPAQUE HIGH
CLOUDS ARE FOUND OVER OUR WESTERN FLANK AND SPREADING EAST INTO
THE JKL CWA. THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE INSTABILITY
BUILDING THROUGH THE DAY AND COULD COUNTER ACT THE INFLUENCE OF
THE MID LEVEL WAVE WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES LATER IN THE
DAY WHEN THE CLOUDS START TO THIN AND BREAK UP...AND INSOLATION
MORE EFFECTIVELY MAKES IT TO THE SFC. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES
ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 60S UNDER THE CLOUDS...TO THE LOWER AND
MID 70S WITH SUNSHINE. DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING IN THE MOIST LOWER
AND MIDDLE 60S THROUGH THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS. HAVE UPDATED THE
GRIDS WITH THIS IN MIND...INCLUDED A DELAY TO THE RENEWAL OF
CONVECTION. ALSO FINE TUNED THE HOURLY T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST
SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE...OBS...AND TRENDS. THESE UPDATES HAVE BEEN
SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS...ALONG WITH A FRESHENED SET OF
ZONES...MAINLY TO DROP MENTION OF EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 657 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS SOME OF OUR FAR EASTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE RAIN SHOWERS THAT
ARE MOVING THROUGH MARTIN AND PIKE COUNTIES HAVE PRODUCED CLOSE TO
AN INCH OF RAIN OVER THE PAST HOUR TO 90 MINUTES. THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ANOTHER AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN BY 12Z THIS MORNING.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH OUT THE
MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO POP UP AROUND THE AREA AS WELL. GRAPHICAL NOWCASTS
HAVE BEEN ISSUED TO DEAL WITH ANY RAIN SHOWERS THAT WE HAVE
EXPERIENCED SO FAR THIS MORNING. THE LATEST OBS DATA HAS BEEN
INGESTED INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS...BUT
NOTHING THAT WOULD WARRANT ISSUING A NEW SET OF ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

NOT MUCH AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS REGARDING TIMING OF SHOWER
AND STORM INITIATION EARLY TODAY...OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE...AND
DURATION OF PRECIPITATION AFTER DARK THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THE LATEST MOS GUIDANCES HAS POPS RANGING FROM NOTHING TO 20 TO 30
PERCENT DEPENDING ON WHICH FORECAST SITE YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT.
THE ONLY FIRM TRIGGER FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY LOOKS TO BE A
WEAKENING AND ALREADY ILL DEFINED COLD FRONT. WITH A WARM AND
HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE...HOWEVER...AND SOME LIFT STILL AVAILABLE
ALONG THE FRONT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH THE BULK OF ACTIVITY
OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WHILE PEAK
HEATING IS STILL OCCURRING. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ON TRACK TO RUN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND TOMORROW DUE TO RELATIVELY UNMODIFIED
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS THAT IS SETTING ON TOP OF US. HIGHS TODAY
TOMORROW SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE MAXING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL GET FLATTENED OUT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS DEEPER TROUGHING SLIDES ACROSS THE U.S./CANADIAN
BORDER. RESIDUAL TROUGHING WILL SWING FROM THE ROCKIES TO ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...KEEPING THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING
ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THE BETTER CHANCE POPS WILL
OCCUR FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY
DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AND DAMPENS WITH TIME. BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A CUTOFF LOW WILL EMERGE AND DRIFT ALONG THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH RIDGING RE-ESTABLISHING ITSELF
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND MIDDLE APPALACHIANS. FOR EASTERN
KENTUCKY...THIS WILL MEAN LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...BUT STILL
NOT TOTALLY RAIN-FREE. THE BLENDED GUIDANCE OFFERED A REASONABLE
START TO THE POPS. DID NOT STRAY FAR FROM THE GIVEN VALUES DURING
THE PERIODS OF BETTER FORCING...HOWEVER DID CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT A
BIT DURING THE OVER-ACTIVE MODELED NIGHTTIME PERIODS WITH LESS
FORCING AVAILABLE. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE THE PASSING COLD
FRONT COOLS THINGS DOWN A FEW DEGREES TEMPORARILY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. READINGS WILL THEN RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS RIDGING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION AROUND MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. HAVE INTRODUCED VCTS FOR THIS THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON AND AGAIN STARTING AT MIDDAY FRIDAY. CANNOT RULE
OUT FOG FOR THE VALLEYS AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT MOST OF THE TAF SITES
SHOULD STAY CLEAR. DID ADD A TEMPO FOR SOME MVFR VIS WITH BR AT
THE SME SITE FOR LATE TONIGHT WHERE RAIN FROM THE PAST DAY MAY
CONTRIBUTE ENOUGH EXTRA MOISTURE FOR ITS DEVELOPMENT. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...GREIF





000
FXUS63 KJKL 281830 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
230 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

PLENTY OF DEBRIS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING MCV LIFTING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY HAVE KEPT THE INSTABILITY
IN CHECK OVER THE AREA LIMITING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR THE
CWA SO FAR. HOWEVER...ON THE FRINGES OF THE AREA...ALONG THE
VIRGINIA BORDER...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP.
EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A BIT BETTER
COVERAGE BY LATE AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE NORTH AND EAST PARTS
OF THE AREA. WITH THAT SAID...THE HRRR DOES SEEM OVERDONE WITH
ITS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING GIVEN THE
CURRENT TRENDS. HAVE TWEAKED THE SKY AND POPS FOR THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS AND TRENDS...AS WELL AS THE T/TD GRIDS. THESE UPDATES
HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEN SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DIFFUSE BOUNDARY LYING WEST TO EAST
THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY WITHIN GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE. ALOFT -
HEIGHTS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL...BUT THE REMAINS OF A
SHORTWAVE IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE AREA...THOUGH
WEAKENING. ON SATELLITE...A DECK OF FAIRLY THICK AND OPAQUE HIGH
CLOUDS ARE FOUND OVER OUR WESTERN FLANK AND SPREADING EAST INTO
THE JKL CWA. THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE INSTABILITY
BUILDING THROUGH THE DAY AND COULD COUNTER ACT THE INFLUENCE OF
THE MID LEVEL WAVE WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES LATER IN THE
DAY WHEN THE CLOUDS START TO THIN AND BREAK UP...AND INSOLATION
MORE EFFECTIVELY MAKES IT TO THE SFC. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES
ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 60S UNDER THE CLOUDS...TO THE LOWER AND
MID 70S WITH SUNSHINE. DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING IN THE MOIST LOWER
AND MIDDLE 60S THROUGH THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS. HAVE UPDATED THE
GRIDS WITH THIS IN MIND...INCLUDED A DELAY TO THE RENEWAL OF
CONVECTION. ALSO FINE TUNED THE HOURLY T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST
SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE...OBS...AND TRENDS. THESE UPDATES HAVE BEEN
SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS...ALONG WITH A FRESHENED SET OF
ZONES...MAINLY TO DROP MENTION OF EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 657 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS SOME OF OUR FAR EASTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE RAIN SHOWERS THAT
ARE MOVING THROUGH MARTIN AND PIKE COUNTIES HAVE PRODUCED CLOSE TO
AN INCH OF RAIN OVER THE PAST HOUR TO 90 MINUTES. THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ANOTHER AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN BY 12Z THIS MORNING.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH OUT THE
MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO POP UP AROUND THE AREA AS WELL. GRAPHICAL NOWCASTS
HAVE BEEN ISSUED TO DEAL WITH ANY RAIN SHOWERS THAT WE HAVE
EXPERIENCED SO FAR THIS MORNING. THE LATEST OBS DATA HAS BEEN
INGESTED INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS...BUT
NOTHING THAT WOULD WARRANT ISSUING A NEW SET OF ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

NOT MUCH AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS REGARDING TIMING OF SHOWER
AND STORM INITIATION EARLY TODAY...OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE...AND
DURATION OF PRECIPITATION AFTER DARK THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THE LATEST MOS GUIDANCES HAS POPS RANGING FROM NOTHING TO 20 TO 30
PERCENT DEPENDING ON WHICH FORECAST SITE YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT.
THE ONLY FIRM TRIGGER FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY LOOKS TO BE A
WEAKENING AND ALREADY ILL DEFINED COLD FRONT. WITH A WARM AND
HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE...HOWEVER...AND SOME LIFT STILL AVAILABLE
ALONG THE FRONT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH THE BULK OF ACTIVITY
OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WHILE PEAK
HEATING IS STILL OCCURRING. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ON TRACK TO RUN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND TOMORROW DUE TO RELATIVELY UNMODIFIED
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS THAT IS SETTING ON TOP OF US. HIGHS TODAY
TOMORROW SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE MAXING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL GET FLATTENED OUT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS DEEPER TROUGHING SLIDES ACROSS THE U.S./CANADIAN
BORDER. RESIDUAL TROUGHING WILL SWING FROM THE ROCKIES TO ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...KEEPING THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING
ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THE BETTER CHANCE POPS WILL
OCCUR FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY
DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AND DAMPENS WITH TIME. BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A CUTOFF LOW WILL EMERGE AND DRIFT ALONG THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH RIDGING RE-ESTABLISHING ITSELF
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND MIDDLE APPALACHIANS. FOR EASTERN
KENTUCKY...THIS WILL MEAN LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...BUT STILL
NOT TOTALLY RAIN-FREE. THE BLENDED GUIDANCE OFFERED A REASONABLE
START TO THE POPS. DID NOT STRAY FAR FROM THE GIVEN VALUES DURING
THE PERIODS OF BETTER FORCING...HOWEVER DID CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT A
BIT DURING THE OVER-ACTIVE MODELED NIGHTTIME PERIODS WITH LESS
FORCING AVAILABLE. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE THE PASSING COLD
FRONT COOLS THINGS DOWN A FEW DEGREES TEMPORARILY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. READINGS WILL THEN RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS RIDGING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION AROUND MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. HAVE INTRODUCED VCTS FOR THIS THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON AND AGAIN STARTING AT MIDDAY FRIDAY. CANNOT RULE
OUT FOG FOR THE VALLEYS AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT MOST OF THE TAF SITES
SHOULD STAY CLEAR. DID ADD A TEMPO FOR SOME MVFR VIS WITH BR AT
THE SME SITE FOR LATE TONIGHT WHERE RAIN FROM THE PAST DAY MAY
CONTRIBUTE ENOUGH EXTRA MOISTURE FOR ITS DEVELOPMENT. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...GREIF




000
FXUS63 KJKL 281430 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1030 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DIFFUSE BOUNDARY LYING WEST TO EAST
THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY WITHIN GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE. ALOFT -
HEIGHTS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL...BUT THE REMAINS OF A
SHORTWAVE IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE AREA...THOUGH
WEAKENING. ON SATELLITE...A DECK OF FAIRLY THICK AND OPAQUE HIGH
CLOUDS ARE FOUND OVER OUR WESTERN FLANK AND SPREADING EAST INTO
THE JKL CWA. THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE INSTABILITY
BUILDING THROUGH THE DAY AND COULD COUNTER ACT THE INFLUENCE OF
THE MID LEVEL WAVE WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES LATER IN THE
DAY WHEN THE CLOUDS START TO THIN AND BREAK UP...AND INSOLATION
MORE EFFECTIVELY MAKES IT TO THE SFC. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES
ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 60S UNDER THE CLOUDS...TO THE LOWER AND
MID 70S WITH SUNSHINE. DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING IN THE MOIST LOWER
AND MIDDLE 60S THROUGH THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS. HAVE UPDATED THE
GRIDS WITH THIS IN MIND...INCLUDED A DELAY TO THE RENEWAL OF
CONVECTION. ALSO FINE TUNED THE HOURLY T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST
SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE...OBS...AND TRENDS. THESE UPDATES HAVE BEEN
SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS...ALONG WITH A FRESHENED SET OF
ZONES...MAINLY TO DROP MENTION OF EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 657 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS SOME OF OUR FAR EASTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE RAIN SHOWERS THAT
ARE MOVING THROUGH MARTIN AND PIKE COUNTIES HAVE PRODUCED CLOSE TO
AN INCH OF RAIN OVER THE PAST HOUR TO 90 MINUTES. THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ANOTHER AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN BY 12Z THIS MORNING.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH OUT THE
MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO POP UP AROUND THE AREA AS WELL. GRAPHICAL NOWCASTS
HAVE BEEN ISSUED TO DEAL WITH ANY RAIN SHOWERS THAT WE HAVE
EXPERIENCED SO FAR THIS MORNING. THE LATEST OBS DATA HAS BEEN
INGESTED INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS...BUT
NOTHING THAT WOULD WARRANT ISSUING A NEW SET OF ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

NOT MUCH AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS REGARDING TIMING OF SHOWER
AND STORM INITIATION EARLY TODAY...OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE...AND
DURATION OF PRECIPITATION AFTER DARK THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THE LATEST MOS GUIDANCES HAS POPS RANGING FROM NOTHING TO 20 TO 30
PERCENT DEPENDING ON WHICH FORECAST SITE YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT.
THE ONLY FIRM TRIGGER FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY LOOKS TO BE A
WEAKENING AND ALREADY ILL DEFINED COLD FRONT. WITH A WARM AND
HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE...HOWEVER...AND SOME LIFT STILL AVAILABLE
ALONG THE FRONT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH THE BULK OF ACTIVITY
OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WHILE PEAK
HEATING IS STILL OCCURRING. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ON TRACK TO RUN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND TOMORROW DUE TO RELATIVELY UNMODIFIED
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS THAT IS SETTING ON TOP OF US. HIGHS TODAY
TOMORROW SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE MAXING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL GET FLATTENED OUT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS DEEPER TROUGHING SLIDES ACROSS THE U.S./CANADIAN
BORDER. RESIDUAL TROUGHING WILL SWING FROM THE ROCKIES TO ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...KEEPING THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING
ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THE BETTER CHANCE POPS WILL
OCCUR FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY
DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AND DAMPENS WITH TIME. BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A CUTOFF LOW WILL EMERGE AND DRIFT ALONG THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH RIDGING RE-ESTABLISHING ITSELF
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND MIDDLE APPALACHIANS. FOR EASTERN
KENTUCKY...THIS WILL MEAN LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...BUT STILL
NOT TOTALLY RAIN-FREE. THE BLENDED GUIDANCE OFFERED A REASONABLE
START TO THE POPS. DID NOT STRAY FAR FROM THE GIVEN VALUES DURING
THE PERIODS OF BETTER FORCING...HOWEVER DID CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT A
BIT DURING THE OVER-ACTIVE MODELED NIGHTTIME PERIODS WITH LESS
FORCING AVAILABLE. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE THE PASSING COLD
FRONT COOLS THINGS DOWN A FEW DEGREES TEMPORARILY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. READINGS WILL THEN RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS RIDGING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND BROKEN MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS WILL AFFECT
THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. SYM WILL BE SOCKED IN BY LIFR FOG
THROUGH 12 OR 13Z THIS MORNING BEFORE BREAKING OUT OF THE MUCK.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT THESE SHOULD STAY WIDELY
SCATTERED ENOUGH TO NOT BE WORTH MENTIONING IN THE TAFS. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND 6Z
TONIGHT. BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z ON FRIDAY FOG MAY AFFECT THE ONE OR
MORE OF THE AIRPORTS...BUT THIS IS NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE
FORECAST...SO FOG HAS BEEN LEFT OUT OF THE 6-12Z PORTION OF THE
TAFS FOR NOW.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...AR




000
FXUS63 KJKL 281430 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1030 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DIFFUSE BOUNDARY LYING WEST TO EAST
THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY WITHIN GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE. ALOFT -
HEIGHTS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL...BUT THE REMAINS OF A
SHORTWAVE IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE AREA...THOUGH
WEAKENING. ON SATELLITE...A DECK OF FAIRLY THICK AND OPAQUE HIGH
CLOUDS ARE FOUND OVER OUR WESTERN FLANK AND SPREADING EAST INTO
THE JKL CWA. THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE INSTABILITY
BUILDING THROUGH THE DAY AND COULD COUNTER ACT THE INFLUENCE OF
THE MID LEVEL WAVE WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES LATER IN THE
DAY WHEN THE CLOUDS START TO THIN AND BREAK UP...AND INSOLATION
MORE EFFECTIVELY MAKES IT TO THE SFC. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES
ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 60S UNDER THE CLOUDS...TO THE LOWER AND
MID 70S WITH SUNSHINE. DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING IN THE MOIST LOWER
AND MIDDLE 60S THROUGH THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS. HAVE UPDATED THE
GRIDS WITH THIS IN MIND...INCLUDED A DELAY TO THE RENEWAL OF
CONVECTION. ALSO FINE TUNED THE HOURLY T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST
SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE...OBS...AND TRENDS. THESE UPDATES HAVE BEEN
SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS...ALONG WITH A FRESHENED SET OF
ZONES...MAINLY TO DROP MENTION OF EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 657 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS SOME OF OUR FAR EASTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE RAIN SHOWERS THAT
ARE MOVING THROUGH MARTIN AND PIKE COUNTIES HAVE PRODUCED CLOSE TO
AN INCH OF RAIN OVER THE PAST HOUR TO 90 MINUTES. THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ANOTHER AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN BY 12Z THIS MORNING.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH OUT THE
MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO POP UP AROUND THE AREA AS WELL. GRAPHICAL NOWCASTS
HAVE BEEN ISSUED TO DEAL WITH ANY RAIN SHOWERS THAT WE HAVE
EXPERIENCED SO FAR THIS MORNING. THE LATEST OBS DATA HAS BEEN
INGESTED INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS...BUT
NOTHING THAT WOULD WARRANT ISSUING A NEW SET OF ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

NOT MUCH AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS REGARDING TIMING OF SHOWER
AND STORM INITIATION EARLY TODAY...OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE...AND
DURATION OF PRECIPITATION AFTER DARK THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THE LATEST MOS GUIDANCES HAS POPS RANGING FROM NOTHING TO 20 TO 30
PERCENT DEPENDING ON WHICH FORECAST SITE YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT.
THE ONLY FIRM TRIGGER FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY LOOKS TO BE A
WEAKENING AND ALREADY ILL DEFINED COLD FRONT. WITH A WARM AND
HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE...HOWEVER...AND SOME LIFT STILL AVAILABLE
ALONG THE FRONT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH THE BULK OF ACTIVITY
OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WHILE PEAK
HEATING IS STILL OCCURRING. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ON TRACK TO RUN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND TOMORROW DUE TO RELATIVELY UNMODIFIED
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS THAT IS SETTING ON TOP OF US. HIGHS TODAY
TOMORROW SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE MAXING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL GET FLATTENED OUT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS DEEPER TROUGHING SLIDES ACROSS THE U.S./CANADIAN
BORDER. RESIDUAL TROUGHING WILL SWING FROM THE ROCKIES TO ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...KEEPING THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING
ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THE BETTER CHANCE POPS WILL
OCCUR FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY
DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AND DAMPENS WITH TIME. BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A CUTOFF LOW WILL EMERGE AND DRIFT ALONG THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH RIDGING RE-ESTABLISHING ITSELF
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND MIDDLE APPALACHIANS. FOR EASTERN
KENTUCKY...THIS WILL MEAN LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...BUT STILL
NOT TOTALLY RAIN-FREE. THE BLENDED GUIDANCE OFFERED A REASONABLE
START TO THE POPS. DID NOT STRAY FAR FROM THE GIVEN VALUES DURING
THE PERIODS OF BETTER FORCING...HOWEVER DID CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT A
BIT DURING THE OVER-ACTIVE MODELED NIGHTTIME PERIODS WITH LESS
FORCING AVAILABLE. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE THE PASSING COLD
FRONT COOLS THINGS DOWN A FEW DEGREES TEMPORARILY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. READINGS WILL THEN RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS RIDGING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND BROKEN MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS WILL AFFECT
THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. SYM WILL BE SOCKED IN BY LIFR FOG
THROUGH 12 OR 13Z THIS MORNING BEFORE BREAKING OUT OF THE MUCK.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT THESE SHOULD STAY WIDELY
SCATTERED ENOUGH TO NOT BE WORTH MENTIONING IN THE TAFS. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND 6Z
TONIGHT. BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z ON FRIDAY FOG MAY AFFECT THE ONE OR
MORE OF THE AIRPORTS...BUT THIS IS NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE
FORECAST...SO FOG HAS BEEN LEFT OUT OF THE 6-12Z PORTION OF THE
TAFS FOR NOW.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...AR





000
FXUS63 KJKL 281057
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
657 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 657 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS SOME OF OUR FAR EASTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE RAIN SHOWERS THAT
ARE MOVING THROUGH MARTIN AND PIKE COUNTIES HAVE PRODUCED CLOSE TO
AN INCH OF RAIN OVER THE PAST HOUR TO 90 MINUTES. THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ANOTHER AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN BY 12Z THIS MORNING.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH OUT THE
MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO POP UP AROUND THE AREA AS WELL. GRAPHICAL NOWCASTS
HAVE BEEN ISSUED TO DEAL WITH ANY RAIN SHOWERS THAT WE HAVE
EXPERIENCED SO FAR THIS MORNING. THE LATEST OBS DATA HAS BEEN
INGESTED INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS...BUT
NOTHING THAT WOULD WARRANT ISSUING A NEW SET OF ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

NOT MUCH AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS REGARDING TIMING OF SHOWER
AND STORM INITIATION EARLY TODAY...OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE...AND
DURATION OF PRECIPITATION AFTER DARK THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THE LATEST MOS GUIDANCES HAS POPS RANGING FROM NOTHING TO 20 TO 30
PERCENT DEPENDING ON WHICH FORECAST SITE YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT.
THE ONLY FIRM TRIGGER FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY LOOKS TO BE A
WEAKENING AND ALREADY ILL DEFINED COLD FRONT. WITH A WARM AND
HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE...HOWEVER...AND SOME LIFT STILL AVAILABLE
ALONG THE FRONT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH THE BULK OF ACTIVITY
OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WHILE PEAK
HEATING IS STILL OCCURRING. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ON TRACK TO RUN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND TOMORROW DUE TO RELATIVELY UNMODIFIED
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS THAT IS SETTING ON TOP OF US. HIGHS TODAY
TOMORROW SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE MAXING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL GET FLATTENED OUT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS DEEPER TROUGHING SLIDES ACROSS THE U.S./CANADIAN
BORDER. RESIDUAL TROUGHING WILL SWING FROM THE ROCKIES TO ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...KEEPING THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING
ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THE BETTER CHANCE POPS WILL
OCCUR FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY
DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AND DAMPENS WITH TIME. BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A CUTOFF LOW WILL EMERGE AND DRIFT ALONG THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH RIDGING RE-ESTABLISHING ITSELF
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND MIDDLE APPALACHIANS. FOR EASTERN
KENTUCKY...THIS WILL MEAN LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...BUT STILL
NOT TOTALLY RAIN-FREE. THE BLENDED GUIDANCE OFFERED A REASONABLE
START TO THE POPS. DID NOT STRAY FAR FROM THE GIVEN VALUES DURING
THE PERIODS OF BETTER FORCING...HOWEVER DID CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT A
BIT DURING THE OVER-ACTIVE MODELED NIGHTTIME PERIODS WITH LESS
FORCING AVAILABLE. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE THE PASSING COLD
FRONT COOLS THINGS DOWN A FEW DEGREES TEMPORARILY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. READINGS WILL THEN RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS RIDGING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND BROKEN MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS WILL AFFECT
THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. SYM WILL BE SOCKED IN BY LIFR FOG
THROUGH 12 OR 13Z THIS MORNING BEFORE BREAKING OUT OF THE MUCK.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT THESE SHOULD STAY WIDELY
SCATTERED ENOUGH TO NOT BE WORTH MENTIONING IN THE TAFS. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND 6Z
TONIGHT. BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z ON FRIDAY FOG MAY AFFECT THE ONE OR
MORE OF THE AIRPORTS...BUT THIS IS NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE
FORECAST...SO FOG HAS BEEN LEFT OUT OF THE 6-12Z PORTION OF THE
TAFS FOR NOW.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...AR




000
FXUS63 KJKL 281057
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
657 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 657 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS SOME OF OUR FAR EASTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE RAIN SHOWERS THAT
ARE MOVING THROUGH MARTIN AND PIKE COUNTIES HAVE PRODUCED CLOSE TO
AN INCH OF RAIN OVER THE PAST HOUR TO 90 MINUTES. THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ANOTHER AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN BY 12Z THIS MORNING.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH OUT THE
MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO POP UP AROUND THE AREA AS WELL. GRAPHICAL NOWCASTS
HAVE BEEN ISSUED TO DEAL WITH ANY RAIN SHOWERS THAT WE HAVE
EXPERIENCED SO FAR THIS MORNING. THE LATEST OBS DATA HAS BEEN
INGESTED INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS...BUT
NOTHING THAT WOULD WARRANT ISSUING A NEW SET OF ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

NOT MUCH AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS REGARDING TIMING OF SHOWER
AND STORM INITIATION EARLY TODAY...OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE...AND
DURATION OF PRECIPITATION AFTER DARK THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THE LATEST MOS GUIDANCES HAS POPS RANGING FROM NOTHING TO 20 TO 30
PERCENT DEPENDING ON WHICH FORECAST SITE YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT.
THE ONLY FIRM TRIGGER FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY LOOKS TO BE A
WEAKENING AND ALREADY ILL DEFINED COLD FRONT. WITH A WARM AND
HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE...HOWEVER...AND SOME LIFT STILL AVAILABLE
ALONG THE FRONT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH THE BULK OF ACTIVITY
OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WHILE PEAK
HEATING IS STILL OCCURRING. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ON TRACK TO RUN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND TOMORROW DUE TO RELATIVELY UNMODIFIED
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS THAT IS SETTING ON TOP OF US. HIGHS TODAY
TOMORROW SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE MAXING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL GET FLATTENED OUT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS DEEPER TROUGHING SLIDES ACROSS THE U.S./CANADIAN
BORDER. RESIDUAL TROUGHING WILL SWING FROM THE ROCKIES TO ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...KEEPING THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING
ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THE BETTER CHANCE POPS WILL
OCCUR FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY
DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AND DAMPENS WITH TIME. BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A CUTOFF LOW WILL EMERGE AND DRIFT ALONG THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH RIDGING RE-ESTABLISHING ITSELF
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND MIDDLE APPALACHIANS. FOR EASTERN
KENTUCKY...THIS WILL MEAN LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...BUT STILL
NOT TOTALLY RAIN-FREE. THE BLENDED GUIDANCE OFFERED A REASONABLE
START TO THE POPS. DID NOT STRAY FAR FROM THE GIVEN VALUES DURING
THE PERIODS OF BETTER FORCING...HOWEVER DID CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT A
BIT DURING THE OVER-ACTIVE MODELED NIGHTTIME PERIODS WITH LESS
FORCING AVAILABLE. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE THE PASSING COLD
FRONT COOLS THINGS DOWN A FEW DEGREES TEMPORARILY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. READINGS WILL THEN RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS RIDGING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND BROKEN MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS WILL AFFECT
THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. SYM WILL BE SOCKED IN BY LIFR FOG
THROUGH 12 OR 13Z THIS MORNING BEFORE BREAKING OUT OF THE MUCK.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT THESE SHOULD STAY WIDELY
SCATTERED ENOUGH TO NOT BE WORTH MENTIONING IN THE TAFS. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND 6Z
TONIGHT. BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z ON FRIDAY FOG MAY AFFECT THE ONE OR
MORE OF THE AIRPORTS...BUT THIS IS NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE
FORECAST...SO FOG HAS BEEN LEFT OUT OF THE 6-12Z PORTION OF THE
TAFS FOR NOW.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...AR





000
FXUS63 KJKL 280731
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
331 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

NOT MUCH AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS REGARDING TIMING OF SHOWER
AND STORM INITIATION EARLY TODAY...OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE...AND
DURATION OF PRECIPITATION AFTER DARK THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THE LATEST MOS GUIDANCES HAS POPS RANGING FROM NOTHING TO 20 TO 30
PERCENT DEPENDING ON WHICH FORECAST SITE YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT.
THE ONLY FIRM TRIGGER FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY LOOKS TO BE A
WEAKENING AND ALREADY ILL DEFINED COLD FRONT. WITH A WARM AND
HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE...HOWEVER...AND SOME LIFT STILL AVAILABLE
ALONG THE FRONT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH THE BULK OF ACTIVITY
OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WHILE PEAK
HEATING IS STILL OCCURRING. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ON TRACK TO RUN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND TOMORROW DUE TO RELATIVELY UNMODIFIED
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS THAT IS SETTING ON TOP OF US. HIGHS TODAY
TOMORROW SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE MAXING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL GET FLATTENED OUT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS DEEPER TROUGHING SLIDES ACROSS THE U.S./CANADIAN
BORDER. RESIDUAL TROUGHING WILL SWING FROM THE ROCKIES TO ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...KEEPING THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING
ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THE BETTER CHANCE POPS WILL
OCCUR FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY
DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AND DAMPENS WITH TIME. BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A CUTOFF LOW WILL EMERGE AND DRIFT ALONG THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH RIDGING RE-ESTABLISHING ITSELF
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND MIDDLE APPALACHIANS. FOR EASTERN
KENTUCKY...THIS WILL MEAN LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...BUT STILL
NOT TOTALLY RAIN-FREE. THE BLENDED GUIDANCE OFFERED A REASONABLE
START TO THE POPS. DID NOT STRAY FAR FROM THE GIVEN VALUES DURING
THE PERIODS OF BETTER FORCING...HOWEVER DID CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT A
BIT DURING THE OVER-ACTIVE MODELED NIGHTTIME PERIODS WITH LESS
FORCING AVAILABLE. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE THE PASSING COLD
FRONT COOLS THINGS DOWN A FEW DEGREES TEMPORARILY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. READINGS WILL THEN RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS RIDGING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

A LINE OF SHOWERS THAT HAD BEEN TAKING SHAPE WEST OF THE AREA HAS
NEARLY COMPLETELY DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. IN
FACT...BASED ON CURRENT DATA...THE TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN
PRECIPITATION FREE UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
VFR THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. BKN TO OVC CIGS OF AROUND 5K WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 15 OR
16Z AT THE TAF SITES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
ON TAP FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED ENOUGH TO NOT WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAFS
FOR NOW. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING AND COULD AFFECT THE TAF SITES FROM TIME TO TIME. THE FOG
SHOULD ONLY REDUCE VSBY TO MVFR IN MOST INSTANCES...BUT THERE
COULD BE BREIF OCCURRENCES OF IFR OR LOWER FOG SUCH AS IS
OCCURRING AT SME AT THIS TIME.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...AR




000
FXUS63 KJKL 280731
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
331 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

NOT MUCH AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS REGARDING TIMING OF SHOWER
AND STORM INITIATION EARLY TODAY...OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE...AND
DURATION OF PRECIPITATION AFTER DARK THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THE LATEST MOS GUIDANCES HAS POPS RANGING FROM NOTHING TO 20 TO 30
PERCENT DEPENDING ON WHICH FORECAST SITE YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT.
THE ONLY FIRM TRIGGER FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY LOOKS TO BE A
WEAKENING AND ALREADY ILL DEFINED COLD FRONT. WITH A WARM AND
HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE...HOWEVER...AND SOME LIFT STILL AVAILABLE
ALONG THE FRONT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH THE BULK OF ACTIVITY
OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WHILE PEAK
HEATING IS STILL OCCURRING. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ON TRACK TO RUN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND TOMORROW DUE TO RELATIVELY UNMODIFIED
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS THAT IS SETTING ON TOP OF US. HIGHS TODAY
TOMORROW SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE MAXING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL GET FLATTENED OUT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS DEEPER TROUGHING SLIDES ACROSS THE U.S./CANADIAN
BORDER. RESIDUAL TROUGHING WILL SWING FROM THE ROCKIES TO ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...KEEPING THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING
ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THE BETTER CHANCE POPS WILL
OCCUR FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY
DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AND DAMPENS WITH TIME. BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A CUTOFF LOW WILL EMERGE AND DRIFT ALONG THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH RIDGING RE-ESTABLISHING ITSELF
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND MIDDLE APPALACHIANS. FOR EASTERN
KENTUCKY...THIS WILL MEAN LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...BUT STILL
NOT TOTALLY RAIN-FREE. THE BLENDED GUIDANCE OFFERED A REASONABLE
START TO THE POPS. DID NOT STRAY FAR FROM THE GIVEN VALUES DURING
THE PERIODS OF BETTER FORCING...HOWEVER DID CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT A
BIT DURING THE OVER-ACTIVE MODELED NIGHTTIME PERIODS WITH LESS
FORCING AVAILABLE. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE THE PASSING COLD
FRONT COOLS THINGS DOWN A FEW DEGREES TEMPORARILY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. READINGS WILL THEN RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS RIDGING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

A LINE OF SHOWERS THAT HAD BEEN TAKING SHAPE WEST OF THE AREA HAS
NEARLY COMPLETELY DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. IN
FACT...BASED ON CURRENT DATA...THE TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN
PRECIPITATION FREE UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
VFR THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. BKN TO OVC CIGS OF AROUND 5K WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 15 OR
16Z AT THE TAF SITES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
ON TAP FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED ENOUGH TO NOT WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAFS
FOR NOW. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING AND COULD AFFECT THE TAF SITES FROM TIME TO TIME. THE FOG
SHOULD ONLY REDUCE VSBY TO MVFR IN MOST INSTANCES...BUT THERE
COULD BE BREIF OCCURRENCES OF IFR OR LOWER FOG SUCH AS IS
OCCURRING AT SME AT THIS TIME.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...AR




000
FXUS63 KJKL 280731
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
331 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

NOT MUCH AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS REGARDING TIMING OF SHOWER
AND STORM INITIATION EARLY TODAY...OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE...AND
DURATION OF PRECIPITATION AFTER DARK THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THE LATEST MOS GUIDANCES HAS POPS RANGING FROM NOTHING TO 20 TO 30
PERCENT DEPENDING ON WHICH FORECAST SITE YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT.
THE ONLY FIRM TRIGGER FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY LOOKS TO BE A
WEAKENING AND ALREADY ILL DEFINED COLD FRONT. WITH A WARM AND
HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE...HOWEVER...AND SOME LIFT STILL AVAILABLE
ALONG THE FRONT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH THE BULK OF ACTIVITY
OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WHILE PEAK
HEATING IS STILL OCCURRING. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ON TRACK TO RUN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND TOMORROW DUE TO RELATIVELY UNMODIFIED
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS THAT IS SETTING ON TOP OF US. HIGHS TODAY
TOMORROW SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE MAXING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL GET FLATTENED OUT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS DEEPER TROUGHING SLIDES ACROSS THE U.S./CANADIAN
BORDER. RESIDUAL TROUGHING WILL SWING FROM THE ROCKIES TO ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...KEEPING THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING
ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THE BETTER CHANCE POPS WILL
OCCUR FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY
DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AND DAMPENS WITH TIME. BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A CUTOFF LOW WILL EMERGE AND DRIFT ALONG THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH RIDGING RE-ESTABLISHING ITSELF
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND MIDDLE APPALACHIANS. FOR EASTERN
KENTUCKY...THIS WILL MEAN LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...BUT STILL
NOT TOTALLY RAIN-FREE. THE BLENDED GUIDANCE OFFERED A REASONABLE
START TO THE POPS. DID NOT STRAY FAR FROM THE GIVEN VALUES DURING
THE PERIODS OF BETTER FORCING...HOWEVER DID CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT A
BIT DURING THE OVER-ACTIVE MODELED NIGHTTIME PERIODS WITH LESS
FORCING AVAILABLE. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE THE PASSING COLD
FRONT COOLS THINGS DOWN A FEW DEGREES TEMPORARILY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. READINGS WILL THEN RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS RIDGING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

A LINE OF SHOWERS THAT HAD BEEN TAKING SHAPE WEST OF THE AREA HAS
NEARLY COMPLETELY DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. IN
FACT...BASED ON CURRENT DATA...THE TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN
PRECIPITATION FREE UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
VFR THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. BKN TO OVC CIGS OF AROUND 5K WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 15 OR
16Z AT THE TAF SITES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
ON TAP FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED ENOUGH TO NOT WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAFS
FOR NOW. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING AND COULD AFFECT THE TAF SITES FROM TIME TO TIME. THE FOG
SHOULD ONLY REDUCE VSBY TO MVFR IN MOST INSTANCES...BUT THERE
COULD BE BREIF OCCURRENCES OF IFR OR LOWER FOG SUCH AS IS
OCCURRING AT SME AT THIS TIME.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...AR





000
FXUS63 KJKL 280700
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
300 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

NOT MUCH AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS REGARDING TIMING OF SHOWER
AND STORM INITIATION EARLY TODAY...OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE...AND
DURATION OF PRECIPITATION AFTER DARK THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THE LATEST MOS GUIDANCES HAS POPS RANGING FROM NOTHING TO 20 TO 30
PERCENT DEPENDING ON WHICH FORECAST SITE YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT.
THE ONLY FIRM TRIGGER FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY LOOKS TO BE A
WEAKENING AND ALREADY ILL DEFINED COLD FRONT. WITH A WARM AND
HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE...HOWEVER...AND SOME LIFT STILL AVAILABLE
ALONG THE FRONT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH THE BULK OF ACTIVITY
OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WHILE PEAK
HEATING IS STILL OCCURRING. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ON TRACK TO RUN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND TOMORROW DUE TO RELATIVELY UNMODIFIED
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS THAT IS SETTING ON TOP OF US. HIGHS TODAY
TOMORROW SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE MAXING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

AN EXTENDED DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

A LINE OF SHOWERS THAT HAD BEEN TAKING SHAPE WEST OF THE AREA HAS
NEARLY COMPLETELY DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. IN
FACT...BASED ON CURRENT DATA...THE TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN
PRECIPITATION FREE UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
VFR THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. BKN TO OVC CIGS OF AROUND 5K WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 15 OR
16Z AT THE TAF SITES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
ON TAP FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED ENOUGH TO NOT WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAFS
FOR NOW. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING AND COULD AFFECT THE TAF SITES FROM TIME TO TIME. THE FOG
SHOULD ONLY REDUCE VSBY TO MVFR IN MOST INSTANCES...BUT THERE
COULD BE BREIF OCCURRENCES OF IFR OR LOWER FOG SUCH AS IS
OCCURRING AT SME AT THIS TIME.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...AR





000
FXUS63 KJKL 280700
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
300 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

NOT MUCH AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS REGARDING TIMING OF SHOWER
AND STORM INITIATION EARLY TODAY...OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE...AND
DURATION OF PRECIPITATION AFTER DARK THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THE LATEST MOS GUIDANCES HAS POPS RANGING FROM NOTHING TO 20 TO 30
PERCENT DEPENDING ON WHICH FORECAST SITE YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT.
THE ONLY FIRM TRIGGER FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY LOOKS TO BE A
WEAKENING AND ALREADY ILL DEFINED COLD FRONT. WITH A WARM AND
HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE...HOWEVER...AND SOME LIFT STILL AVAILABLE
ALONG THE FRONT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH THE BULK OF ACTIVITY
OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WHILE PEAK
HEATING IS STILL OCCURRING. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ON TRACK TO RUN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND TOMORROW DUE TO RELATIVELY UNMODIFIED
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS THAT IS SETTING ON TOP OF US. HIGHS TODAY
TOMORROW SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE MAXING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

AN EXTENDED DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

A LINE OF SHOWERS THAT HAD BEEN TAKING SHAPE WEST OF THE AREA HAS
NEARLY COMPLETELY DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. IN
FACT...BASED ON CURRENT DATA...THE TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN
PRECIPITATION FREE UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
VFR THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. BKN TO OVC CIGS OF AROUND 5K WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 15 OR
16Z AT THE TAF SITES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
ON TAP FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED ENOUGH TO NOT WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAFS
FOR NOW. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING AND COULD AFFECT THE TAF SITES FROM TIME TO TIME. THE FOG
SHOULD ONLY REDUCE VSBY TO MVFR IN MOST INSTANCES...BUT THERE
COULD BE BREIF OCCURRENCES OF IFR OR LOWER FOG SUCH AS IS
OCCURRING AT SME AT THIS TIME.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...AR




000
FXUS63 KJKL 280543
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
143 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. THE
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY REVEALS THAT A LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS
THAT HAD BEEN TAKING SHAPE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY EARLIER TONIGHT
HAS PRETTY MUCH COMPLETELY DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING THIS SAME TREND.
THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH BETWEEN 10 AND 11Z THIS
MORNING WERE REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE THUNDER FROM THE GRIDS. ALSO REDUCED
POPS SINCE MOST OF THE SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA.
OTHER THAN THAT...UPDATED T AND TD GRIDS TO REFLECT MOST RECENT
OBS AND SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS QUICKLY WEAKENED THIS
EVENING. EXPECT ANY REMAINING SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. TEMPERATURES HAVE QUICKLY DROPPED IN THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA IN RESPONSE TO EARLIER SHOWERS SO HAVE ADJUSTED
T AND TD GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
FOR TONIGHT. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHED NE/SW THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY
AT MID AFTERNOON...AND WAS PROGRESSING TOWARD EASTERN KENTUCKY. IF
IT HOLDS TOGETHER...IT WILL ARRIVE IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AROUND
5 PM. HOWEVER...IT IS HEADING INTO A DRIER AIR MASS...AND THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG IT WILL PERSIST. HAVE USED MAINLY
CHANCE POPS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THINKING THAT A
LESS FAVORABLE AIR MASS AND AN EVENTUAL LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING WILL BRING ITS DEMISE. LATE TONIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH...LIKELY REACHING KENTUCKY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. MODELS SHOW SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
HAVE USED A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...WITH A
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MINIMUM EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE ACTIVITY.

WHAT IS LEFT OF THE DYING FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIR MASS...THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT IN THE AREA...AND NO SIGNIFICANT CAP PRESENT
IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD AGAIN POP UP.
LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE DRY AIR ALOFT IN OUR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...AND THE FACT THAT UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WILL BE ALMOST
NONEXISTENT FOR THE LOCAL AREA. ANYTHING WHICH DOES DEVELOP WILL
BE SLOW MOVING AND MAY NOT MOVE OVER MUCH REAL ESTATE BEFORE THE
CELLS COMPLETE THEIR LIFE CYCLES. FOR THESE REASONS...POP WILL
STILL BE LIMITED TO ONLY 30-40 PERCENT...LOWEST IN THE NORTHWEST.
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OUT WITH LOSS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ON
THURSDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RIDGING CENTERED NEAR THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WITH AN ARE OF TROUGHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA SOUTH
INTO THE PLAINS AND RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS.
AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. A WAVY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SOUTH FROM AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO.

THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AS DEEPER TROUGHING SWINGS ACROSS
CENTRAL CANADA AND THE PERIPHERY OF THE NORTHERN U.S. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME RESIDUAL TROUGHINESS TO SLOWLY WORK FROM THE PLAINS
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THEN POSSIBLY CLOSE OFF OVER THE
MIDDLE TO LOWER MS VALLEY AND REMAIN THERE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO ITS EAST AND NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND LOWER OH VALLEY AND RIDGING ALSO
BUILDS AT LEAST BRIEFLY EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE
OF A TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE OF THE PACIFIC COAST. AT THE SFC THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE OH VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND...
GRADUALLY SCAGGING SOUTH INTO THE REGION TO END THE WEEKEND AND THEN
BECOMING RATHER DIFFUSE BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. A
WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITHOUT A CLEAN FRONTAL PASSAGE ANTICIPATED. CONVECTION CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AT ANY TIME DURING THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY DURING EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR SATURDAY OPTED TO GO A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE MODEL BLEND FOR
POPS AS THE ECMWF HOLDS THE FRONT A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND
WEST FOR THAT PERIOD. OTHERWISE...WE HAVE CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT THE
POPS A BIT DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS...SINCE THE MODELS AND THE
MODEL BLEND GENERALLY TEND TO OVERDO CONVECTION THAT IS LARGELY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN. WITH THE FRONT OVER THE REGION...THE HIGHEST
POPS...LIKELY WERE USED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL TO START THE WEEKEND...AND THEN COOL A
BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE
TO CLOUD COVER AND RELATIVELY DEEP RESIDUAL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO
LINGER. TEMPERATURES MAY AGAIN WARM TO NEAR TO IF NOT ABOVE NORMAL
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE RATHER LIMITED
DUE TO ANTICIPATED CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME AND DEW POINTS GENERALLY
IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

A LINE OF SHOWERS THAT HAD BEEN TAKING SHAPE WEST OF THE AREA HAS
NEARLY COMPLETELY DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. IN
FACT...BASED ON CURRENT DATA...THE TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN
PRECIPITATION FREE UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
VFR THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. BKN TO OVC CIGS OF AROUND 5K WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 15 OR
16Z AT THE TAF SITES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
ON TAP FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED ENOUGH TO NOT WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAFS
FOR NOW. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING AND COULD AFFECT THE TAF SITES FROM TIME TO TIME. THE FOG
SHOULD ONLY REDUCE VSBY TO MVFR IN MOST INSTANCES...BUT THERE
COULD BE BREIF OCCURRENCES OF IFR OR LOWER FOG SUCH AS IS
OCCURRING AT SME AT THIS TIME.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...AR





000
FXUS63 KJKL 280543
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
143 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. THE
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY REVEALS THAT A LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS
THAT HAD BEEN TAKING SHAPE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY EARLIER TONIGHT
HAS PRETTY MUCH COMPLETELY DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING THIS SAME TREND.
THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH BETWEEN 10 AND 11Z THIS
MORNING WERE REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE THUNDER FROM THE GRIDS. ALSO REDUCED
POPS SINCE MOST OF THE SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA.
OTHER THAN THAT...UPDATED T AND TD GRIDS TO REFLECT MOST RECENT
OBS AND SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS QUICKLY WEAKENED THIS
EVENING. EXPECT ANY REMAINING SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. TEMPERATURES HAVE QUICKLY DROPPED IN THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA IN RESPONSE TO EARLIER SHOWERS SO HAVE ADJUSTED
T AND TD GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
FOR TONIGHT. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHED NE/SW THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY
AT MID AFTERNOON...AND WAS PROGRESSING TOWARD EASTERN KENTUCKY. IF
IT HOLDS TOGETHER...IT WILL ARRIVE IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AROUND
5 PM. HOWEVER...IT IS HEADING INTO A DRIER AIR MASS...AND THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG IT WILL PERSIST. HAVE USED MAINLY
CHANCE POPS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THINKING THAT A
LESS FAVORABLE AIR MASS AND AN EVENTUAL LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING WILL BRING ITS DEMISE. LATE TONIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH...LIKELY REACHING KENTUCKY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. MODELS SHOW SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
HAVE USED A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...WITH A
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MINIMUM EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE ACTIVITY.

WHAT IS LEFT OF THE DYING FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIR MASS...THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT IN THE AREA...AND NO SIGNIFICANT CAP PRESENT
IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD AGAIN POP UP.
LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE DRY AIR ALOFT IN OUR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...AND THE FACT THAT UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WILL BE ALMOST
NONEXISTENT FOR THE LOCAL AREA. ANYTHING WHICH DOES DEVELOP WILL
BE SLOW MOVING AND MAY NOT MOVE OVER MUCH REAL ESTATE BEFORE THE
CELLS COMPLETE THEIR LIFE CYCLES. FOR THESE REASONS...POP WILL
STILL BE LIMITED TO ONLY 30-40 PERCENT...LOWEST IN THE NORTHWEST.
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OUT WITH LOSS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ON
THURSDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RIDGING CENTERED NEAR THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WITH AN ARE OF TROUGHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA SOUTH
INTO THE PLAINS AND RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS.
AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. A WAVY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SOUTH FROM AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO.

THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AS DEEPER TROUGHING SWINGS ACROSS
CENTRAL CANADA AND THE PERIPHERY OF THE NORTHERN U.S. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME RESIDUAL TROUGHINESS TO SLOWLY WORK FROM THE PLAINS
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THEN POSSIBLY CLOSE OFF OVER THE
MIDDLE TO LOWER MS VALLEY AND REMAIN THERE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO ITS EAST AND NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND LOWER OH VALLEY AND RIDGING ALSO
BUILDS AT LEAST BRIEFLY EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE
OF A TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE OF THE PACIFIC COAST. AT THE SFC THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE OH VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND...
GRADUALLY SCAGGING SOUTH INTO THE REGION TO END THE WEEKEND AND THEN
BECOMING RATHER DIFFUSE BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. A
WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITHOUT A CLEAN FRONTAL PASSAGE ANTICIPATED. CONVECTION CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AT ANY TIME DURING THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY DURING EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR SATURDAY OPTED TO GO A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE MODEL BLEND FOR
POPS AS THE ECMWF HOLDS THE FRONT A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND
WEST FOR THAT PERIOD. OTHERWISE...WE HAVE CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT THE
POPS A BIT DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS...SINCE THE MODELS AND THE
MODEL BLEND GENERALLY TEND TO OVERDO CONVECTION THAT IS LARGELY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN. WITH THE FRONT OVER THE REGION...THE HIGHEST
POPS...LIKELY WERE USED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL TO START THE WEEKEND...AND THEN COOL A
BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE
TO CLOUD COVER AND RELATIVELY DEEP RESIDUAL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO
LINGER. TEMPERATURES MAY AGAIN WARM TO NEAR TO IF NOT ABOVE NORMAL
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE RATHER LIMITED
DUE TO ANTICIPATED CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME AND DEW POINTS GENERALLY
IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

A LINE OF SHOWERS THAT HAD BEEN TAKING SHAPE WEST OF THE AREA HAS
NEARLY COMPLETELY DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. IN
FACT...BASED ON CURRENT DATA...THE TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN
PRECIPITATION FREE UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
VFR THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. BKN TO OVC CIGS OF AROUND 5K WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 15 OR
16Z AT THE TAF SITES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
ON TAP FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED ENOUGH TO NOT WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAFS
FOR NOW. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING AND COULD AFFECT THE TAF SITES FROM TIME TO TIME. THE FOG
SHOULD ONLY REDUCE VSBY TO MVFR IN MOST INSTANCES...BUT THERE
COULD BE BREIF OCCURRENCES OF IFR OR LOWER FOG SUCH AS IS
OCCURRING AT SME AT THIS TIME.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...AR




000
FXUS63 KJKL 280530
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
130 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. THE
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY REVEALS THAT A LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS
THAT HAD BEEN TAKING SHAPE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY EARLIER TONIGHT
HAS PRETTY MUCH COMPLETELY DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING THIS SAME TREND.
THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH BETWEEN 10 AND 11Z THIS
MORNING WERE REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE THUNDER FROM THE GRIDS. ALSO REDUCED
POPS SINCE MOST OF THE SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA.
OTHER THAN THAT...UPDATED T AND TD GRIDS TO REFLECT MOST RECENT
OBS AND SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS QUICKLY WEAKENED THIS
EVENING. EXPECT ANY REMAINING SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. TEMPERATURES HAVE QUICKLY DROPPED IN THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA IN RESPONSE TO EARLIER SHOWERS SO HAVE ADJUSTED
T AND TD GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
FOR TONIGHT. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHED NE/SW THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY
AT MID AFTERNOON...AND WAS PROGRESSING TOWARD EASTERN KENTUCKY. IF
IT HOLDS TOGETHER...IT WILL ARRIVE IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AROUND
5 PM. HOWEVER...IT IS HEADING INTO A DRIER AIR MASS...AND THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG IT WILL PERSIST. HAVE USED MAINLY
CHANCE POPS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THINKING THAT A
LESS FAVORABLE AIR MASS AND AN EVENTUAL LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING WILL BRING ITS DEMISE. LATE TONIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH...LIKELY REACHING KENTUCKY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. MODELS SHOW SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
HAVE USED A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...WITH A
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MINIMUM EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE ACTIVITY.

WHAT IS LEFT OF THE DYING FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIR MASS...THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT IN THE AREA...AND NO SIGNIFICANT CAP PRESENT
IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD AGAIN POP UP.
LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE DRY AIR ALOFT IN OUR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...AND THE FACT THAT UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WILL BE ALMOST
NONEXISTENT FOR THE LOCAL AREA. ANYTHING WHICH DOES DEVELOP WILL
BE SLOW MOVING AND MAY NOT MOVE OVER MUCH REAL ESTATE BEFORE THE
CELLS COMPLETE THEIR LIFE CYCLES. FOR THESE REASONS...POP WILL
STILL BE LIMITED TO ONLY 30-40 PERCENT...LOWEST IN THE NORTHWEST.
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OUT WITH LOSS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ON
THURSDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RIDGING CENTERED NEAR THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WITH AN ARE OF TROUGHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA SOUTH
INTO THE PLAINS AND RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS.
AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. A WAVY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SOUTH FROM AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO.

THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AS DEEPER TROUGHING SWINGS ACROSS
CENTRAL CANADA AND THE PERIPHERY OF THE NORTHERN U.S. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME RESIDUAL TROUGHINESS TO SLOWLY WORK FROM THE PLAINS
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THEN POSSIBLY CLOSE OFF OVER THE
MIDDLE TO LOWER MS VALLEY AND REMAIN THERE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO ITS EAST AND NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND LOWER OH VALLEY AND RIDGING ALSO
BUILDS AT LEAST BRIEFLY EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE
OF A TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE OF THE PACIFIC COAST. AT THE SFC THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE OH VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND...
GRADUALLY SCAGGING SOUTH INTO THE REGION TO END THE WEEKEND AND THEN
BECOMING RATHER DIFFUSE BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. A
WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITHOUT A CLEAN FRONTAL PASSAGE ANTICIPATED. CONVECTION CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AT ANY TIME DURING THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY DURING EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR SATURDAY OPTED TO GO A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE MODEL BLEND FOR
POPS AS THE ECMWF HOLDS THE FRONT A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND
WEST FOR THAT PERIOD. OTHERWISE...WE HAVE CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT THE
POPS A BIT DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS...SINCE THE MODELS AND THE
MODEL BLEND GENERALLY TEND TO OVERDO CONVECTION THAT IS LARGELY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN. WITH THE FRONT OVER THE REGION...THE HIGHEST
POPS...LIKELY WERE USED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL TO START THE WEEKEND...AND THEN COOL A
BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE
TO CLOUD COVER AND RELATIVELY DEEP RESIDUAL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO
LINGER. TEMPERATURES MAY AGAIN WARM TO NEAR TO IF NOT ABOVE NORMAL
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE RATHER LIMITED
DUE TO ANTICIPATED CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME AND DEW POINTS GENERALLY
IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

A LINE OF SHOWERS THAT HAD BEEN TAKING SHAPE WEST OF THE AREA HAS
NEARLY COMPLETELY DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
IN FACT...BASED ON CURRENT DATA...THE TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN
PRECIPITATION FREE UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
VFR THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. BKN TO OVC CIGS OF AROUND 5K WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 15 OR
16Z AT THE TAF SITES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
ON TAP FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED ENOUGH TO NOT WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAFS
FOR NOW.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...AR





000
FXUS63 KJKL 280530
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
130 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. THE
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY REVEALS THAT A LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS
THAT HAD BEEN TAKING SHAPE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY EARLIER TONIGHT
HAS PRETTY MUCH COMPLETELY DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING THIS SAME TREND.
THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH BETWEEN 10 AND 11Z THIS
MORNING WERE REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE THUNDER FROM THE GRIDS. ALSO REDUCED
POPS SINCE MOST OF THE SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA.
OTHER THAN THAT...UPDATED T AND TD GRIDS TO REFLECT MOST RECENT
OBS AND SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS QUICKLY WEAKENED THIS
EVENING. EXPECT ANY REMAINING SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. TEMPERATURES HAVE QUICKLY DROPPED IN THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA IN RESPONSE TO EARLIER SHOWERS SO HAVE ADJUSTED
T AND TD GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
FOR TONIGHT. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHED NE/SW THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY
AT MID AFTERNOON...AND WAS PROGRESSING TOWARD EASTERN KENTUCKY. IF
IT HOLDS TOGETHER...IT WILL ARRIVE IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AROUND
5 PM. HOWEVER...IT IS HEADING INTO A DRIER AIR MASS...AND THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG IT WILL PERSIST. HAVE USED MAINLY
CHANCE POPS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THINKING THAT A
LESS FAVORABLE AIR MASS AND AN EVENTUAL LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING WILL BRING ITS DEMISE. LATE TONIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH...LIKELY REACHING KENTUCKY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. MODELS SHOW SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
HAVE USED A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...WITH A
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MINIMUM EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE ACTIVITY.

WHAT IS LEFT OF THE DYING FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIR MASS...THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT IN THE AREA...AND NO SIGNIFICANT CAP PRESENT
IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD AGAIN POP UP.
LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE DRY AIR ALOFT IN OUR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...AND THE FACT THAT UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WILL BE ALMOST
NONEXISTENT FOR THE LOCAL AREA. ANYTHING WHICH DOES DEVELOP WILL
BE SLOW MOVING AND MAY NOT MOVE OVER MUCH REAL ESTATE BEFORE THE
CELLS COMPLETE THEIR LIFE CYCLES. FOR THESE REASONS...POP WILL
STILL BE LIMITED TO ONLY 30-40 PERCENT...LOWEST IN THE NORTHWEST.
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OUT WITH LOSS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ON
THURSDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RIDGING CENTERED NEAR THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WITH AN ARE OF TROUGHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA SOUTH
INTO THE PLAINS AND RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS.
AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. A WAVY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SOUTH FROM AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO.

THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AS DEEPER TROUGHING SWINGS ACROSS
CENTRAL CANADA AND THE PERIPHERY OF THE NORTHERN U.S. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME RESIDUAL TROUGHINESS TO SLOWLY WORK FROM THE PLAINS
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THEN POSSIBLY CLOSE OFF OVER THE
MIDDLE TO LOWER MS VALLEY AND REMAIN THERE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO ITS EAST AND NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND LOWER OH VALLEY AND RIDGING ALSO
BUILDS AT LEAST BRIEFLY EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE
OF A TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE OF THE PACIFIC COAST. AT THE SFC THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE OH VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND...
GRADUALLY SCAGGING SOUTH INTO THE REGION TO END THE WEEKEND AND THEN
BECOMING RATHER DIFFUSE BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. A
WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITHOUT A CLEAN FRONTAL PASSAGE ANTICIPATED. CONVECTION CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AT ANY TIME DURING THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY DURING EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR SATURDAY OPTED TO GO A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE MODEL BLEND FOR
POPS AS THE ECMWF HOLDS THE FRONT A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND
WEST FOR THAT PERIOD. OTHERWISE...WE HAVE CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT THE
POPS A BIT DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS...SINCE THE MODELS AND THE
MODEL BLEND GENERALLY TEND TO OVERDO CONVECTION THAT IS LARGELY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN. WITH THE FRONT OVER THE REGION...THE HIGHEST
POPS...LIKELY WERE USED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL TO START THE WEEKEND...AND THEN COOL A
BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE
TO CLOUD COVER AND RELATIVELY DEEP RESIDUAL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO
LINGER. TEMPERATURES MAY AGAIN WARM TO NEAR TO IF NOT ABOVE NORMAL
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE RATHER LIMITED
DUE TO ANTICIPATED CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME AND DEW POINTS GENERALLY
IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

A LINE OF SHOWERS THAT HAD BEEN TAKING SHAPE WEST OF THE AREA HAS
NEARLY COMPLETELY DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
IN FACT...BASED ON CURRENT DATA...THE TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN
PRECIPITATION FREE UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
VFR THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. BKN TO OVC CIGS OF AROUND 5K WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 15 OR
16Z AT THE TAF SITES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
ON TAP FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED ENOUGH TO NOT WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAFS
FOR NOW.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...AR




000
FXUS63 KJKL 280140
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
940 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE THUNDER FROM THE GRIDS. ALSO REDUCED
POPS SINCE MOST OF THE SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA.
OTHER THAN THAT...UPDATED T AND TD GRIDS TO REFLECT MOST RECENT
OBS AND SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS QUICKLY WEAKENED THIS
EVENING. EXPECT ANY REMAINING SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. TEMPERATURES HAVE QUICKLY DROPPED IN THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA IN RESPONSE TO EARLIER SHOWERS SO HAVE ADJUSTED
T AND TD GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
FOR TONIGHT. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHED NE/SW THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY
AT MID AFTERNOON...AND WAS PROGRESSING TOWARD EASTERN KENTUCKY. IF
IT HOLDS TOGETHER...IT WILL ARRIVE IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AROUND
5 PM. HOWEVER...IT IS HEADING INTO A DRIER AIR MASS...AND THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG IT WILL PERSIST. HAVE USED MAINLY
CHANCE POPS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THINKING THAT A
LESS FAVORABLE AIR MASS AND AN EVENTUAL LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING WILL BRING ITS DEMISE. LATE TONIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH...LIKELY REACHING KENTUCKY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. MODELS SHOW SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
HAVE USED A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...WITH A
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MINIMUM EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE ACTIVITY.

WHAT IS LEFT OF THE DYING FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIR MASS...THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT IN THE AREA...AND NO SIGNIFICANT CAP PRESENT
IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD AGAIN POP UP.
LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE DRY AIR ALOFT IN OUR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...AND THE FACT THAT UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WILL BE ALMOST
NONEXISTENT FOR THE LOCAL AREA. ANYTHING WHICH DOES DEVELOP WILL
BE SLOW MOVING AND MAY NOT MOVE OVER MUCH REAL ESTATE BEFORE THE
CELLS COMPLETE THEIR LIFE CYCLES. FOR THESE REASONS...POP WILL
STILL BE LIMITED TO ONLY 30-40 PERCENT...LOWEST IN THE NORTHWEST.
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OUT WITH LOSS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ON
THURSDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RIDGING CENTERED NEAR THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WITH AN ARE OF TROUGHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA SOUTH
INTO THE PLAINS AND RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS.
AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. A WAVY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SOUTH FROM AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO.

THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AS DEEPER TROUGHING SWINGS ACROSS
CENTRAL CANADA AND THE PERIPHERY OF THE NORTHERN U.S. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME RESIDUAL TROUGHINESS TO SLOWLY WORK FROM THE PLAINS
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THEN POSSIBLY CLOSE OFF OVER THE
MIDDLE TO LOWER MS VALLEY AND REMAIN THERE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO ITS EAST AND NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND LOWER OH VALLEY AND RIDGING ALSO
BUILDS AT LEAST BRIEFLY EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE
OF A TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE OF THE PACIFIC COAST. AT THE SFC THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE OH VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND...
GRADUALLY SCAGGING SOUTH INTO THE REGION TO END THE WEEKEND AND THEN
BECOMING RATHER DIFFUSE BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. A
WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITHOUT A CLEAN FRONTAL PASSAGE ANTICIPATED. CONVECTION CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AT ANY TIME DURING THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY DURING EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR SATURDAY OPTED TO GO A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE MODEL BLEND FOR
POPS AS THE ECMWF HOLDS THE FRONT A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND
WEST FOR THAT PERIOD. OTHERWISE...WE HAVE CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT THE
POPS A BIT DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS...SINCE THE MODELS AND THE
MODEL BLEND GENERALLY TEND TO OVERDO CONVECTION THAT IS LARGELY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN. WITH THE FRONT OVER THE REGION...THE HIGHEST
POPS...LIKELY WERE USED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL TO START THE WEEKEND...AND THEN COOL A
BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE
TO CLOUD COVER AND RELATIVELY DEEP RESIDUAL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO
LINGER. TEMPERATURES MAY AGAIN WARM TO NEAR TO IF NOT ABOVE NORMAL
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE RATHER LIMITED
DUE TO ANTICIPATED CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME AND DEW POINTS GENERALLY
IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS QUICKLY WEAKENED THIS
EVENING. EXPECT ANY REMAINING SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO...ONLY IMPACTING LOZ...JKL AND SYM TAF SITES. ONCE THE
SHOWERS END...EXPECT CIGS TO RISE AND VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY VALLEY FOG TONIGHT WHICH MAY DROP
CONDITIONS TO MVFR AT THE JKL...LOZ...SME AND SJS TAF SITES. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JVM




000
FXUS63 KJKL 280140
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
940 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE THUNDER FROM THE GRIDS. ALSO REDUCED
POPS SINCE MOST OF THE SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA.
OTHER THAN THAT...UPDATED T AND TD GRIDS TO REFLECT MOST RECENT
OBS AND SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS QUICKLY WEAKENED THIS
EVENING. EXPECT ANY REMAINING SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. TEMPERATURES HAVE QUICKLY DROPPED IN THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA IN RESPONSE TO EARLIER SHOWERS SO HAVE ADJUSTED
T AND TD GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
FOR TONIGHT. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHED NE/SW THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY
AT MID AFTERNOON...AND WAS PROGRESSING TOWARD EASTERN KENTUCKY. IF
IT HOLDS TOGETHER...IT WILL ARRIVE IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AROUND
5 PM. HOWEVER...IT IS HEADING INTO A DRIER AIR MASS...AND THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG IT WILL PERSIST. HAVE USED MAINLY
CHANCE POPS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THINKING THAT A
LESS FAVORABLE AIR MASS AND AN EVENTUAL LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING WILL BRING ITS DEMISE. LATE TONIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH...LIKELY REACHING KENTUCKY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. MODELS SHOW SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
HAVE USED A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...WITH A
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MINIMUM EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE ACTIVITY.

WHAT IS LEFT OF THE DYING FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIR MASS...THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT IN THE AREA...AND NO SIGNIFICANT CAP PRESENT
IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD AGAIN POP UP.
LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE DRY AIR ALOFT IN OUR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...AND THE FACT THAT UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WILL BE ALMOST
NONEXISTENT FOR THE LOCAL AREA. ANYTHING WHICH DOES DEVELOP WILL
BE SLOW MOVING AND MAY NOT MOVE OVER MUCH REAL ESTATE BEFORE THE
CELLS COMPLETE THEIR LIFE CYCLES. FOR THESE REASONS...POP WILL
STILL BE LIMITED TO ONLY 30-40 PERCENT...LOWEST IN THE NORTHWEST.
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OUT WITH LOSS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ON
THURSDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RIDGING CENTERED NEAR THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WITH AN ARE OF TROUGHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA SOUTH
INTO THE PLAINS AND RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS.
AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. A WAVY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SOUTH FROM AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO.

THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AS DEEPER TROUGHING SWINGS ACROSS
CENTRAL CANADA AND THE PERIPHERY OF THE NORTHERN U.S. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME RESIDUAL TROUGHINESS TO SLOWLY WORK FROM THE PLAINS
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THEN POSSIBLY CLOSE OFF OVER THE
MIDDLE TO LOWER MS VALLEY AND REMAIN THERE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO ITS EAST AND NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND LOWER OH VALLEY AND RIDGING ALSO
BUILDS AT LEAST BRIEFLY EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE
OF A TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE OF THE PACIFIC COAST. AT THE SFC THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE OH VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND...
GRADUALLY SCAGGING SOUTH INTO THE REGION TO END THE WEEKEND AND THEN
BECOMING RATHER DIFFUSE BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. A
WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITHOUT A CLEAN FRONTAL PASSAGE ANTICIPATED. CONVECTION CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AT ANY TIME DURING THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY DURING EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR SATURDAY OPTED TO GO A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE MODEL BLEND FOR
POPS AS THE ECMWF HOLDS THE FRONT A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND
WEST FOR THAT PERIOD. OTHERWISE...WE HAVE CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT THE
POPS A BIT DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS...SINCE THE MODELS AND THE
MODEL BLEND GENERALLY TEND TO OVERDO CONVECTION THAT IS LARGELY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN. WITH THE FRONT OVER THE REGION...THE HIGHEST
POPS...LIKELY WERE USED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL TO START THE WEEKEND...AND THEN COOL A
BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE
TO CLOUD COVER AND RELATIVELY DEEP RESIDUAL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO
LINGER. TEMPERATURES MAY AGAIN WARM TO NEAR TO IF NOT ABOVE NORMAL
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE RATHER LIMITED
DUE TO ANTICIPATED CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME AND DEW POINTS GENERALLY
IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS QUICKLY WEAKENED THIS
EVENING. EXPECT ANY REMAINING SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO...ONLY IMPACTING LOZ...JKL AND SYM TAF SITES. ONCE THE
SHOWERS END...EXPECT CIGS TO RISE AND VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY VALLEY FOG TONIGHT WHICH MAY DROP
CONDITIONS TO MVFR AT THE JKL...LOZ...SME AND SJS TAF SITES. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JVM





000
FXUS63 KJKL 280005
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
805 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS QUICKLY WEAKENED THIS
EVENING. EXPECT ANY REMAINING SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. TEMPERATURES HAVE QUICKLY DROPPED IN THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA IN RESPONSE TO EARLIER SHOWERS SO HAVE ADJUSTED
T AND TD GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
FOR TONIGHT. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHED NE/SW THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY
AT MID AFTERNOON...AND WAS PROGRESSING TOWARD EASTERN KENTUCKY. IF
IT HOLDS TOGETHER...IT WILL ARRIVE IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AROUND
5 PM. HOWEVER...IT IS HEADING INTO A DRIER AIR MASS...AND THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG IT WILL PERSIST. HAVE USED MAINLY
CHANCE POPS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THINKING THAT A
LESS FAVORABLE AIR MASS AND AN EVENTUAL LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING WILL BRING ITS DEMISE. LATE TONIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH...LIKELY REACHING KENTUCKY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. MODELS SHOW SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
HAVE USED A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...WITH A
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MINIMUM EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE ACTIVITY.

WHAT IS LEFT OF THE DYING FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIR MASS...THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT IN THE AREA...AND NO SIGNIFICANT CAP PRESENT
IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD AGAIN POP UP.
LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE DRY AIR ALOFT IN OUR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...AND THE FACT THAT UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WILL BE ALMOST
NONEXISTENT FOR THE LOCAL AREA. ANYTHING WHICH DOES DEVELOP WILL
BE SLOW MOVING AND MAY NOT MOVE OVER MUCH REAL ESTATE BEFORE THE
CELLS COMPLETE THEIR LIFE CYCLES. FOR THESE REASONS...POP WILL
STILL BE LIMITED TO ONLY 30-40 PERCENT...LOWEST IN THE NORTHWEST.
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OUT WITH LOSS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ON
THURSDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RIDGING CENTERED NEAR THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WITH AN ARE OF TROUGHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA SOUTH
INTO THE PLAINS AND RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS.
AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. A WAVY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SOUTH FROM AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO.

THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AS DEEPER TROUGHING SWINGS ACROSS
CENTRAL CANADA AND THE PERIPHERY OF THE NORTHERN U.S. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME RESIDUAL TROUGHINESS TO SLOWLY WORK FROM THE PLAINS
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THEN POSSIBLY CLOSE OFF OVER THE
MIDDLE TO LOWER MS VALLEY AND REMAIN THERE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO ITS EAST AND NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND LOWER OH VALLEY AND RIDGING ALSO
BUILDS AT LEAST BRIEFLY EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE
OF A TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE OF THE PACIFIC COAST. AT THE SFC THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE OH VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND...
GRADUALLY SCAGGING SOUTH INTO THE REGION TO END THE WEEKEND AND THEN
BECOMING RATHER DIFFUSE BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. A
WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITHOUT A CLEAN FRONTAL PASSAGE ANTICIPATED. CONVECTION CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AT ANY TIME DURING THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY DURING EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR SATURDAY OPTED TO GO A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE MODEL BLEND FOR
POPS AS THE ECMWF HOLDS THE FRONT A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND
WEST FOR THAT PERIOD. OTHERWISE...WE HAVE CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT THE
POPS A BIT DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS...SINCE THE MODELS AND THE
MODEL BLEND GENERALLY TEND TO OVERDO CONVECTION THAT IS LARGELY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN. WITH THE FRONT OVER THE REGION...THE HIGHEST
POPS...LIKELY WERE USED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL TO START THE WEEKEND...AND THEN COOL A
BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE
TO CLOUD COVER AND RELATIVELY DEEP RESIDUAL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO
LINGER. TEMPERATURES MAY AGAIN WARM TO NEAR TO IF NOT ABOVE NORMAL
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE RATHER LIMITED
DUE TO ANTICIPATED CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME AND DEW POINTS GENERALLY
IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS QUICKLY WEAKENED THIS
EVENING. EXPECT ANY REMAINING SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO...ONLY IMPACTING LOZ...JKL AND SYM TAF SITES. ONCE THE
SHOWERS END...EXPECT CIGS TO RISE AND VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY VALLEY FOG TONIGHT WHICH MAY DROP
CONDITIONS TO MVFR AT THE JKL...LOZ...SME AND SJS TAF SITES. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JVM





000
FXUS63 KJKL 280005
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
805 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS QUICKLY WEAKENED THIS
EVENING. EXPECT ANY REMAINING SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. TEMPERATURES HAVE QUICKLY DROPPED IN THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA IN RESPONSE TO EARLIER SHOWERS SO HAVE ADJUSTED
T AND TD GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
FOR TONIGHT. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHED NE/SW THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY
AT MID AFTERNOON...AND WAS PROGRESSING TOWARD EASTERN KENTUCKY. IF
IT HOLDS TOGETHER...IT WILL ARRIVE IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AROUND
5 PM. HOWEVER...IT IS HEADING INTO A DRIER AIR MASS...AND THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG IT WILL PERSIST. HAVE USED MAINLY
CHANCE POPS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THINKING THAT A
LESS FAVORABLE AIR MASS AND AN EVENTUAL LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING WILL BRING ITS DEMISE. LATE TONIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH...LIKELY REACHING KENTUCKY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. MODELS SHOW SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
HAVE USED A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...WITH A
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MINIMUM EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE ACTIVITY.

WHAT IS LEFT OF THE DYING FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIR MASS...THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT IN THE AREA...AND NO SIGNIFICANT CAP PRESENT
IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD AGAIN POP UP.
LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE DRY AIR ALOFT IN OUR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...AND THE FACT THAT UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WILL BE ALMOST
NONEXISTENT FOR THE LOCAL AREA. ANYTHING WHICH DOES DEVELOP WILL
BE SLOW MOVING AND MAY NOT MOVE OVER MUCH REAL ESTATE BEFORE THE
CELLS COMPLETE THEIR LIFE CYCLES. FOR THESE REASONS...POP WILL
STILL BE LIMITED TO ONLY 30-40 PERCENT...LOWEST IN THE NORTHWEST.
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OUT WITH LOSS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ON
THURSDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RIDGING CENTERED NEAR THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WITH AN ARE OF TROUGHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA SOUTH
INTO THE PLAINS AND RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS.
AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. A WAVY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SOUTH FROM AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO.

THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AS DEEPER TROUGHING SWINGS ACROSS
CENTRAL CANADA AND THE PERIPHERY OF THE NORTHERN U.S. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME RESIDUAL TROUGHINESS TO SLOWLY WORK FROM THE PLAINS
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THEN POSSIBLY CLOSE OFF OVER THE
MIDDLE TO LOWER MS VALLEY AND REMAIN THERE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO ITS EAST AND NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND LOWER OH VALLEY AND RIDGING ALSO
BUILDS AT LEAST BRIEFLY EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE
OF A TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE OF THE PACIFIC COAST. AT THE SFC THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE OH VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND...
GRADUALLY SCAGGING SOUTH INTO THE REGION TO END THE WEEKEND AND THEN
BECOMING RATHER DIFFUSE BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. A
WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITHOUT A CLEAN FRONTAL PASSAGE ANTICIPATED. CONVECTION CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AT ANY TIME DURING THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY DURING EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR SATURDAY OPTED TO GO A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE MODEL BLEND FOR
POPS AS THE ECMWF HOLDS THE FRONT A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND
WEST FOR THAT PERIOD. OTHERWISE...WE HAVE CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT THE
POPS A BIT DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS...SINCE THE MODELS AND THE
MODEL BLEND GENERALLY TEND TO OVERDO CONVECTION THAT IS LARGELY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN. WITH THE FRONT OVER THE REGION...THE HIGHEST
POPS...LIKELY WERE USED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL TO START THE WEEKEND...AND THEN COOL A
BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE
TO CLOUD COVER AND RELATIVELY DEEP RESIDUAL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO
LINGER. TEMPERATURES MAY AGAIN WARM TO NEAR TO IF NOT ABOVE NORMAL
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE RATHER LIMITED
DUE TO ANTICIPATED CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME AND DEW POINTS GENERALLY
IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS QUICKLY WEAKENED THIS
EVENING. EXPECT ANY REMAINING SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO...ONLY IMPACTING LOZ...JKL AND SYM TAF SITES. ONCE THE
SHOWERS END...EXPECT CIGS TO RISE AND VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY VALLEY FOG TONIGHT WHICH MAY DROP
CONDITIONS TO MVFR AT THE JKL...LOZ...SME AND SJS TAF SITES. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JVM




000
FXUS63 KJKL 272014
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
414 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHED NE/SW THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY
AT MID AFTERNOON...AND WAS PROGRESSING TOWARD EASTERN KENTUCKY. IF
IT HOLDS TOGETHER...IT WILL ARRIVE IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AROUND
5 PM. HOWEVER...IT IS HEADING INTO A DRIER AIR MASS...AND THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG IT WILL PERSIST. HAVE USED MAINLY
CHANCE POPS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THINKING THAT A
LESS FAVORABLE AIR MASS AND AN EVENTUAL LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING WILL BRING ITS DEMISE. LATE TONIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH...LIKELY REACHING KENTUCKY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. MODELS SHOW SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
HAVE USED A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...WITH A
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MINIMUM EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE ACTIVITY.

WHAT IS LEFT OF THE DYING FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIR MASS...THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT IN THE AREA...AND NO SIGNIFICANT CAP PRESENT
IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD AGAIN POP UP.
LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE DRY AIR ALOFT IN OUR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...AND THE FACT THAT UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WILL BE ALMOST
NONEXISTENT FOR THE LOCAL AREA. ANYTHING WHICH DOES DEVELOP WILL
BE SLOW MOVING AND MAY NOT MOVE OVER MUCH REAL ESTATE BEFORE THE
CELLS COMPLETE THEIR LIFE CYCLES. FOR THESE REASONS...POP WILL
STILL BE LIMITED TO ONLY 30-40 PERCENT...LOWEST IN THE NORTHWEST.
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OUT WITH LOSS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ON
THURSDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RIDGING CENTERED NEAR THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WITH AN ARE OF TROUGHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA SOUTH
INTO THE PLAINS AND RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS.
AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. A WAVY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SOUTH FROM AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO.

THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AS DEEPER TROUGHING SWINGS ACROSS
CENTRAL CANADA AND THE PERIPHERY OF THE NORTHERN U.S. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME RESIDUAL TROUGHINESS TO SLOWLY WORK FROM THE PLAINS
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THEN POSSIBLY CLOSE OFF OVER THE
MIDDLE TO LOWER MS VALLEY AND REMAIN THERE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO ITS EAST AND NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND LOWER OH VALLEY AND RIDGING ALSO
BUILDS AT LEAST BRIEFLY EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE
OF A TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE OF THE PACIFIC COAST. AT THE SFC THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE OH VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND...
GRADUALLY SCAGGING SOUTH INTO THE REGION TO END THE WEEKEND AND THEN
BECOMING RATHER DIFFUSE BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. A
WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITHOUT A CLEAN FRONTAL PASSAGE ANTICIPATED. CONVECTION CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AT ANY TIME DURING THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY DURING EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR SATURDAY OPTED TO GO A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE MODEL BLEND FOR
POPS AS THE ECMWF HOLDS THE FRONT A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND
WEST FOR THAT PERIOD. OTHERWISE...WE HAVE CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT THE
POPS A BIT DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS...SINCE THE MODELS AND THE
MODEL BLEND GENERALLY TEND TO OVERDO CONVECTION THAT IS LARGELY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN. WITH THE FRONT OVER THE REGION...THE HIGHEST
POPS...LIKELY WERE USED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL TO START THE WEEKEND...AND THEN COOL A
BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE
TO CLOUD COVER AND RELATIVELY DEEP RESIDUAL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO
LINGER. TEMPERATURES MAY AGAIN WARM TO NEAR TO IF NOT ABOVE NORMAL
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE RATHER LIMITED
DUE TO ANTICIPATED CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME AND DEW POINTS GENERALLY
IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

CEILINGS HAD RISEN AND BEGUN TO BREAK UP AT MID DAY...ALLOWING
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY TAF
ISSUANCE TIME. MOSTLY VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN AREA
OF THUNDERSTORMS HEADING EAST INTO CENTRAL KY AT TAF ISSUANCE
COULD MAKE IT INTO THE JKL FORECAST AREA OF EASTERN KY DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS COULD BRING SUB VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT UNCERTAINTY IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT INCLUDING IT IN
THE FORECAST. VALLEY FOG MAY ALSO BRING LOCALIZED IFR LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT UNLESS PRECIP OCCURS...THE FOG
SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE AT TAF SITES.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...HAL





000
FXUS63 KJKL 272000
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
400 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

A LINE OF THUNDERTORMS STRETCHED NE/SW THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY AT
MID AFTERNOON...AND WAS PROGRESSING TOWARD EASTERN KENTUCKY. IF IT
HOLD TOGETHER...IT WILL ARRIVE IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AROUND
5 PM. IT IS HEADING INTO A DRIER AIR MASS...SO THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG IT WILL PERSIST. HAVE USED CHANCE POPS
OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THINKING THAT A LESS
FAVORABLE AIR MASS AND AN EVENTUAL LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING
WILL BRING ITS DEMISE. LATE TONIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH...LIKELY REACHING KENTUCKY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. MODELS SHOW SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
HAVE USED A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...WITH A
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MINIMUM LIMITING ACTIVITY.

WHAT IS LEFT OF THE DYING FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIR MASS AND THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT IN THE AREA...SHOWER AND STORM COULD AGAIN
POP UP.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

AN UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

CEILINGS HAD RISEN AND BEGUN TO BREAK UP AT MID DAY...ALLOWING
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY TAF
ISSUANCE TIME. MOSTLY VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN AREA
OF THUNDERSTORMS HEADING EAST INTO CENTRAL KY AT TAF ISSUANCE
COULD MAKE IT INTO THE JKL FORECAST AREA OF EASTERN KY DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS COULD BRING SUB VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT UNCERTAINTY IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT INCLUDING IT IN
THE FORECAST. VALLEY FOG MAY ALSO BRING LOCALIZED IFR LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT UNLESS PRECIP OCCURS...THE FOG
SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE AT TAF SITES.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...HAL




000
FXUS63 KJKL 272000
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
400 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

A LINE OF THUNDERTORMS STRETCHED NE/SW THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY AT
MID AFTERNOON...AND WAS PROGRESSING TOWARD EASTERN KENTUCKY. IF IT
HOLD TOGETHER...IT WILL ARRIVE IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AROUND
5 PM. IT IS HEADING INTO A DRIER AIR MASS...SO THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG IT WILL PERSIST. HAVE USED CHANCE POPS
OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THINKING THAT A LESS
FAVORABLE AIR MASS AND AN EVENTUAL LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING
WILL BRING ITS DEMISE. LATE TONIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH...LIKELY REACHING KENTUCKY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. MODELS SHOW SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
HAVE USED A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...WITH A
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MINIMUM LIMITING ACTIVITY.

WHAT IS LEFT OF THE DYING FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIR MASS AND THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT IN THE AREA...SHOWER AND STORM COULD AGAIN
POP UP.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

AN UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

CEILINGS HAD RISEN AND BEGUN TO BREAK UP AT MID DAY...ALLOWING
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY TAF
ISSUANCE TIME. MOSTLY VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN AREA
OF THUNDERSTORMS HEADING EAST INTO CENTRAL KY AT TAF ISSUANCE
COULD MAKE IT INTO THE JKL FORECAST AREA OF EASTERN KY DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS COULD BRING SUB VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT UNCERTAINTY IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT INCLUDING IT IN
THE FORECAST. VALLEY FOG MAY ALSO BRING LOCALIZED IFR LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT UNLESS PRECIP OCCURS...THE FOG
SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE AT TAF SITES.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...HAL





000
FXUS63 KJKL 271749
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
149 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS ENTERING CENTRAL KY AND MIDDLE TN
FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS OVER EASTERN KY ARE
A BIT LOWER THAN AT PLACES FURTHER WEST...AND IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW
WELL THE STORMS WILL BE MAINTAINED AS THE AREA SHIFTS EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...BASED ON CURRENT MOVEMENT HAVE USED AN INCREASE TO
CHANCE CATEGORY FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE JKL FORECAST DURING THE
LATE DAY AND EARLY EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 948 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUED TO BLANKET MOST PLACES AT MID MORNING...BUT
THERE ARE QUITE A FEW HOLES. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND THE
FACT THAT THE MID DAY SUN ANGLE IS NEAR THE PEAK FOR THE
YEAR...THINK THAT WE WILL STILL BE ABLE TO ERODE THE SOLID SKY
COVER INTO SCATTERED CLOUDS. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND A LACK OF A
TRIGGER/FOCUS MECHANISM PREVENTING ANY SUBSTANTIAL COVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

A BIT OF A CHALLENGING FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM. THE NAM12 AND
OTHER SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME COMING INTO
AGREEMENT REGARDING PRECIPITATION OCCURRENCE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE NAM12 AND GFS MODELS ARE PRODUCING VERY LITTLE QPF THROUGH 0Z
FRI...WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL IS QUITE A BIT WETTER THAN EITHER OF
THE OTHER TWO MODELS. THE ISSUE APPEARS TO BE THE LACK OF A GOOD
TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY TODAY. THE MOS GUIDANCE IS
ALSO PRODUCING ONLY VERY LOW PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ACROSS
THE BOARD FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THAT ALL BEING
SAID...DECIDED TO KEEP THE MORNING HOURS TODAY FREE OF
PRECIPITATION...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING DURING PEAK HEATING. ALSO WENT AHEAD
AND KEPT A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AS THE
MODELS DO TRY TO BRING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY TO THE
CHANCE RANGE...AS THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO MOVE SOME SORT OF WEAK
BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. WITH MOIST AIR STILL IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA...WE COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRE
UP AGAIN ON THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
DURING PEAK DIURNAL HEATING.

TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW ARE STILL ON TRACK TO BE
WARMER THAN NORMAL GIVEN THE AIR MASS WE HAVE IN PLACE AND THE
EXPECTED SOUTHERLY WINDS. HIGHS TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL MOST
LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA. TONIGHTS
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN BOTTOM OUT IN THE BALMY LOW TO MID
60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RIDGING GRADUALLY
BREAKING DOWN ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND ALONG THE GULF COAST
AS DEEPER TROUGHING SWINGS ACROSS THE PERIPHERY OF THE NORTHERN
U.S. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RESIDUAL TROUGHINESS TO SLOWLY WORK
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...KEEPING
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION. THE BLENDED
GUIDANCE DID COME IN A BIT LEANER ON THE POPS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AS THE UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL FEATURES LOOK A BIT MORE
DAMPENED COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. HAVE STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
GIVEN POPS...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT A BIT MORE DURING
THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS...SINCE THE MODELS TEND TO OVERDO
CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...AND THEN COOL A BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

CEILINGS HAD RISEN AND BEGUN TO BREAK UP AT MID DAY...ALLOWING
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY TAF
ISSUANCE TIME. MOSTLY VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN AREA
OF THUNDERSTORMS HEADING EAST INTO CENTRAL KY AT TAF ISSUANCE
COULD MAKE IT INTO THE JKL FORECAST AREA OF EASTERN KY DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS COULD BRING SUB VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT UNCERTAINTY IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT INCLUDING IT IN
THE FORECAST. VALLEY FOG MAY ALSO BRING LOCALIZED IFR LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT UNLESS PRECIP OCCURS...THE FOG
SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE AT TAF SITES.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...HAL





000
FXUS63 KJKL 271749
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
149 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS ENTERING CENTRAL KY AND MIDDLE TN
FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS OVER EASTERN KY ARE
A BIT LOWER THAN AT PLACES FURTHER WEST...AND IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW
WELL THE STORMS WILL BE MAINTAINED AS THE AREA SHIFTS EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...BASED ON CURRENT MOVEMENT HAVE USED AN INCREASE TO
CHANCE CATEGORY FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE JKL FORECAST DURING THE
LATE DAY AND EARLY EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 948 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUED TO BLANKET MOST PLACES AT MID MORNING...BUT
THERE ARE QUITE A FEW HOLES. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND THE
FACT THAT THE MID DAY SUN ANGLE IS NEAR THE PEAK FOR THE
YEAR...THINK THAT WE WILL STILL BE ABLE TO ERODE THE SOLID SKY
COVER INTO SCATTERED CLOUDS. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND A LACK OF A
TRIGGER/FOCUS MECHANISM PREVENTING ANY SUBSTANTIAL COVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

A BIT OF A CHALLENGING FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM. THE NAM12 AND
OTHER SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME COMING INTO
AGREEMENT REGARDING PRECIPITATION OCCURRENCE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE NAM12 AND GFS MODELS ARE PRODUCING VERY LITTLE QPF THROUGH 0Z
FRI...WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL IS QUITE A BIT WETTER THAN EITHER OF
THE OTHER TWO MODELS. THE ISSUE APPEARS TO BE THE LACK OF A GOOD
TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY TODAY. THE MOS GUIDANCE IS
ALSO PRODUCING ONLY VERY LOW PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ACROSS
THE BOARD FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THAT ALL BEING
SAID...DECIDED TO KEEP THE MORNING HOURS TODAY FREE OF
PRECIPITATION...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING DURING PEAK HEATING. ALSO WENT AHEAD
AND KEPT A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AS THE
MODELS DO TRY TO BRING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY TO THE
CHANCE RANGE...AS THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO MOVE SOME SORT OF WEAK
BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. WITH MOIST AIR STILL IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA...WE COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRE
UP AGAIN ON THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
DURING PEAK DIURNAL HEATING.

TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW ARE STILL ON TRACK TO BE
WARMER THAN NORMAL GIVEN THE AIR MASS WE HAVE IN PLACE AND THE
EXPECTED SOUTHERLY WINDS. HIGHS TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL MOST
LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA. TONIGHTS
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN BOTTOM OUT IN THE BALMY LOW TO MID
60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RIDGING GRADUALLY
BREAKING DOWN ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND ALONG THE GULF COAST
AS DEEPER TROUGHING SWINGS ACROSS THE PERIPHERY OF THE NORTHERN
U.S. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RESIDUAL TROUGHINESS TO SLOWLY WORK
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...KEEPING
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION. THE BLENDED
GUIDANCE DID COME IN A BIT LEANER ON THE POPS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AS THE UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL FEATURES LOOK A BIT MORE
DAMPENED COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. HAVE STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
GIVEN POPS...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT A BIT MORE DURING
THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS...SINCE THE MODELS TEND TO OVERDO
CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...AND THEN COOL A BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

CEILINGS HAD RISEN AND BEGUN TO BREAK UP AT MID DAY...ALLOWING
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY TAF
ISSUANCE TIME. MOSTLY VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN AREA
OF THUNDERSTORMS HEADING EAST INTO CENTRAL KY AT TAF ISSUANCE
COULD MAKE IT INTO THE JKL FORECAST AREA OF EASTERN KY DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS COULD BRING SUB VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT UNCERTAINTY IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT INCLUDING IT IN
THE FORECAST. VALLEY FOG MAY ALSO BRING LOCALIZED IFR LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT UNLESS PRECIP OCCURS...THE FOG
SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE AT TAF SITES.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...HAL




000
FXUS63 KJKL 271348
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
948 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 948 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUED TO BLANKET MOST PLACES AT MID MORNING...BUT
THERE ARE QUITE A FEW HOLES. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND THE
FACT THAT THE MID DAY SUN ANGLE IS NEAR THE PEAK FOR THE
YEAR...THINK THAT WE WILL STILL BE ABLE TO ERODE THE SOLID SKY
COVER INTO SCATTERED CLOUDS. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND A LACK OF A
TRIGGER/FOCUS MECHANISM PREVENTING ANY SUBSTANTIAL COVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

A BIT OF A CHALLENGING FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM. THE NAM12 AND
OTHER SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME COMING INTO
AGREEMENT REGARDING PRECIPITATION OCCURRENCE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE NAM12 AND GFS MODELS ARE PRODUCING VERY LITTLE QPF THROUGH 0Z
FRI...WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL IS QUITE A BIT WETTER THAN EITHER OF
THE OTHER TWO MODELS. THE ISSUE APPEARS TO BE THE LACK OF A GOOD
TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY TODAY. THE MOS GUIDANCE IS
ALSO PRODUCING ONLY VERY LOW PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ACROSS
THE BOARD FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THAT ALL BEING
SAID...DECIDED TO KEEP THE MORNING HOURS TODAY FREE OF
PRECIPITATION...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING DURING PEAK HEATING. ALSO WENT AHEAD
AND KEPT A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AS THE
MODELS DO TRY TO BRING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY TO THE
CHANCE RANGE...AS THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO MOVE SOME SORT OF WEAK
BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. WITH MOIST AIR STILL IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA...WE COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRE
UP AGAIN ON THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
DURING PEAK DIURNAL HEATING.

TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW ARE STILL ON TRACK TO BE
WARMER THAN NORMAL GIVEN THE AIR MASS WE HAVE IN PLACE AND THE
EXPECTED SOUTHERLY WINDS. HIGHS TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL MOST
LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA. TONIGHTS
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN BOTTOM OUT IN THE BALMY LOW TO MID
60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RIDGING GRADUALLY
BREAKING DOWN ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND ALONG THE GULF COAST
AS DEEPER TROUGHING SWINGS ACROSS THE PERIPHERY OF THE NORTHERN
U.S. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RESIDUAL TROUGHINESS TO SLOWLY WORK
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...KEEPING
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION. THE BLENDED
GUIDANCE DID COME IN A BIT LEANER ON THE POPS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AS THE UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL FEATURES LOOK A BIT MORE
DAMPENED COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. HAVE STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
GIVEN POPS...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT A BIT MORE DURING
THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS...SINCE THE MODELS TEND TO OVERDO
CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...AND THEN COOL A BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 707 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE WEATHER ISSUE OF NOTE FOR THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING IS
STRATUS CLOUDS. THESE CLOUDS HAVE CREATED MVFR CIGS AT
JKL...SME...AND SYM DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
HAVE UPDATED THE TAF GRIDS THROUGH 15Z TO REFLECT THE LOW LEVEL
CLOUD COVER. ANTICIPATE THAT THESE CLOUDS WILL ERODE AWAY ONCE THE
SUN IS UP...GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BOARD. THERE
IS A SMALL CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER
TODAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. DUE
TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE STORMS...NO MENTION WAS MADE OF THEM
IN THE TAFS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...AR





000
FXUS63 KJKL 271107
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
707 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

A BIT OF A CHALLENGING FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM. THE NAM12 AND
OTHER SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME COMING INTO
AGREEMENT REGARDING PRECIPITATION OCCURRENCE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE NAM12 AND GFS MODELS ARE PRODUCING VERY LITTLE QPF THROUGH 0Z
FRI...WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL IS QUITE A BIT WETTER THAN EITHER OF
THE OTHER TWO MODELS. THE ISSUE APPEARS TO BE THE LACK OF A GOOD
TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY TODAY. THE MOS GUIDANCE IS
ALSO PRODUCING ONLY VERY LOW PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ACROSS
THE BOARD FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THAT ALL BEING
SAID...DECIDED TO KEEP THE MORNING HOURS TODAY FREE OF
PRECIPITATION...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING DURING PEAK HEATING. ALSO WENT AHEAD
AND KEPT A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AS THE
MODELS DO TRY TO BRING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY TO THE
CHANCE RANGE...AS THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO MOVE SOME SORT OF WEAK
BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. WITH MOIST AIR STILL IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA...WE COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRE
UP AGAIN ON THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
DURING PEAK DIURNAL HEATING.

TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW ARE STILL ON TRACK TO BE
WARMER THAN NORMAL GIVEN THE AIR MASS WE HAVE IN PLACE AND THE
EXPECTED SOUTHERLY WINDS. HIGHS TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL MOST
LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA. TONIGHTS
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN BOTTOM OUT IN THE BALMY LOW TO MID
60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RIDGING GRADUALLY
BREAKING DOWN ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND ALONG THE GULF COAST
AS DEEPER TROUGHING SWINGS ACROSS THE PERIPHERY OF THE NORTHERN
U.S. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RESIDUAL TROUGHINESS TO SLOWLY WORK
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...KEEPING
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION. THE BLENDED
GUIDANCE DID COME IN A BIT LEANER ON THE POPS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AS THE UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL FEATURES LOOK A BIT MORE
DAMPENED COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. HAVE STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
GIVEN POPS...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT A BIT MORE DURING
THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS...SINCE THE MODELS TEND TO OVERDO
CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...AND THEN COOL A BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 707 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE WEATHER ISSUE OF NOTE FOR THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING IS
STRATUS CLOUDS. THESE CLOUDS HAVE CREATED MVFR CIGS AT
JKL...SME...AND SYM DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
HAVE UPDATED THE TAF GRIDS THROUGH 15Z TO REFLECT THE LOW LEVEL
CLOUD COVER. ANTICIPATE THAT THESE CLOUDS WILL ERODE AWAY ONCE THE
SUN IS UP...GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BOARD. THERE
IS A SMALL CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER
TODAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. DUE
TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE STORMS...NO MENTION WAS MADE OF THEM
IN THE TAFS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...AR




000
FXUS63 KJKL 271107
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
707 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

A BIT OF A CHALLENGING FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM. THE NAM12 AND
OTHER SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME COMING INTO
AGREEMENT REGARDING PRECIPITATION OCCURRENCE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE NAM12 AND GFS MODELS ARE PRODUCING VERY LITTLE QPF THROUGH 0Z
FRI...WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL IS QUITE A BIT WETTER THAN EITHER OF
THE OTHER TWO MODELS. THE ISSUE APPEARS TO BE THE LACK OF A GOOD
TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY TODAY. THE MOS GUIDANCE IS
ALSO PRODUCING ONLY VERY LOW PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ACROSS
THE BOARD FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THAT ALL BEING
SAID...DECIDED TO KEEP THE MORNING HOURS TODAY FREE OF
PRECIPITATION...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING DURING PEAK HEATING. ALSO WENT AHEAD
AND KEPT A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AS THE
MODELS DO TRY TO BRING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY TO THE
CHANCE RANGE...AS THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO MOVE SOME SORT OF WEAK
BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. WITH MOIST AIR STILL IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA...WE COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRE
UP AGAIN ON THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
DURING PEAK DIURNAL HEATING.

TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW ARE STILL ON TRACK TO BE
WARMER THAN NORMAL GIVEN THE AIR MASS WE HAVE IN PLACE AND THE
EXPECTED SOUTHERLY WINDS. HIGHS TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL MOST
LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA. TONIGHTS
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN BOTTOM OUT IN THE BALMY LOW TO MID
60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RIDGING GRADUALLY
BREAKING DOWN ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND ALONG THE GULF COAST
AS DEEPER TROUGHING SWINGS ACROSS THE PERIPHERY OF THE NORTHERN
U.S. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RESIDUAL TROUGHINESS TO SLOWLY WORK
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...KEEPING
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION. THE BLENDED
GUIDANCE DID COME IN A BIT LEANER ON THE POPS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AS THE UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL FEATURES LOOK A BIT MORE
DAMPENED COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. HAVE STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
GIVEN POPS...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT A BIT MORE DURING
THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS...SINCE THE MODELS TEND TO OVERDO
CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...AND THEN COOL A BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 707 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE WEATHER ISSUE OF NOTE FOR THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING IS
STRATUS CLOUDS. THESE CLOUDS HAVE CREATED MVFR CIGS AT
JKL...SME...AND SYM DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
HAVE UPDATED THE TAF GRIDS THROUGH 15Z TO REFLECT THE LOW LEVEL
CLOUD COVER. ANTICIPATE THAT THESE CLOUDS WILL ERODE AWAY ONCE THE
SUN IS UP...GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BOARD. THERE
IS A SMALL CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER
TODAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. DUE
TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE STORMS...NO MENTION WAS MADE OF THEM
IN THE TAFS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...AR





000
FXUS63 KJKL 270745
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
345 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

A BIT OF A CHALLENGING FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM. THE NAM12 AND
OTHER SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME COMING INTO
AGREEMENT REGARDING PRECIPITATION OCCURRENCE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE NAM12 AND GFS MODELS ARE PRODUCING VERY LITTLE QPF THROUGH 0Z
FRI...WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL IS QUITE A BIT WETTER THAN EITHER OF
THE OTHER TWO MODELS. THE ISSUE APPEARS TO BE THE LACK OF A GOOD
TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY TODAY. THE MOS GUIDANCE IS
ALSO PRODUCING ONLY VERY LOW PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ACROSS
THE BOARD FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THAT ALL BEING
SAID...DECIDED TO KEEP THE MORNING HOURS TODAY FREE OF
PRECIPITATION...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING DURING PEAK HEATING. ALSO WENT AHEAD
AND KEPT A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AS THE
MODELS DO TRY TO BRING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY TO THE
CHANCE RANGE...AS THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO MOVE SOME SORT OF WEAK
BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. WITH MOIST AIR STILL IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA...WE COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRE
UP AGAIN ON THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
DURING PEAK DIURNAL HEATING.

TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW ARE STILL ON TRACK TO BE
WARMER THAN NORMAL GIVEN THE AIR MASS WE HAVE IN PLACE AND THE
EXPECTED SOUTHERLY WINDS. HIGHS TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL MOST
LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA. TONIGHTS
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN BOTTOM OUT IN THE BALMY LOW TO MID
60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RIDGING GRADUALLY
BREAKING DOWN ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND ALONG THE GULF COAST
AS DEEPER TROUGHING SWINGS ACROSS THE PERIPHERY OF THE NORTHERN
U.S. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RESIDUAL TROUGHINESS TO SLOWLY WORK
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...KEEPING
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION. THE BLENDED
GUIDANCE DID COME IN A BIT LEANER ON THE POPS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AS THE UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL FEATURES LOOK A BIT MORE
DAMPENED COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. HAVE STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
GIVEN POPS...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT A BIT MORE DURING
THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS...SINCE THE MODELS TEND TO OVERDO
CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...AND THEN COOL A BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AT
THE SME...LOZ...SYM AND SJS TAF SITES SO HAVE INCLUDED MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING.
HOWEVER...WITH THE LATEST MODEL DATA SHOWING LOW PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AT BEST...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE
LOWER CIGS IN THE TAFS DUE TO PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE FROM THE SOUTH BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...AR




000
FXUS63 KJKL 270745
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
345 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

A BIT OF A CHALLENGING FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM. THE NAM12 AND
OTHER SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME COMING INTO
AGREEMENT REGARDING PRECIPITATION OCCURRENCE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE NAM12 AND GFS MODELS ARE PRODUCING VERY LITTLE QPF THROUGH 0Z
FRI...WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL IS QUITE A BIT WETTER THAN EITHER OF
THE OTHER TWO MODELS. THE ISSUE APPEARS TO BE THE LACK OF A GOOD
TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY TODAY. THE MOS GUIDANCE IS
ALSO PRODUCING ONLY VERY LOW PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ACROSS
THE BOARD FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THAT ALL BEING
SAID...DECIDED TO KEEP THE MORNING HOURS TODAY FREE OF
PRECIPITATION...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING DURING PEAK HEATING. ALSO WENT AHEAD
AND KEPT A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AS THE
MODELS DO TRY TO BRING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY TO THE
CHANCE RANGE...AS THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO MOVE SOME SORT OF WEAK
BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. WITH MOIST AIR STILL IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA...WE COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRE
UP AGAIN ON THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
DURING PEAK DIURNAL HEATING.

TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW ARE STILL ON TRACK TO BE
WARMER THAN NORMAL GIVEN THE AIR MASS WE HAVE IN PLACE AND THE
EXPECTED SOUTHERLY WINDS. HIGHS TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL MOST
LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA. TONIGHTS
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN BOTTOM OUT IN THE BALMY LOW TO MID
60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RIDGING GRADUALLY
BREAKING DOWN ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND ALONG THE GULF COAST
AS DEEPER TROUGHING SWINGS ACROSS THE PERIPHERY OF THE NORTHERN
U.S. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RESIDUAL TROUGHINESS TO SLOWLY WORK
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...KEEPING
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION. THE BLENDED
GUIDANCE DID COME IN A BIT LEANER ON THE POPS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AS THE UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL FEATURES LOOK A BIT MORE
DAMPENED COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. HAVE STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
GIVEN POPS...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT A BIT MORE DURING
THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS...SINCE THE MODELS TEND TO OVERDO
CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...AND THEN COOL A BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AT
THE SME...LOZ...SYM AND SJS TAF SITES SO HAVE INCLUDED MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING.
HOWEVER...WITH THE LATEST MODEL DATA SHOWING LOW PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AT BEST...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE
LOWER CIGS IN THE TAFS DUE TO PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE FROM THE SOUTH BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...AR





000
FXUS63 KJKL 270701
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
301 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

A BIT OF A CHALLENGING FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM. THE NAM12 AND
OTHER SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME COMING INTO
AGREEMENT REGARDING PRECIPITATION OCCURRENCE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE NAM12 AND GFS MODELS ARE PRODUCING VERY LITTLE QPF THROUGH 0Z
FRI...WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL IS QUITE A BIT WETTER THAN EITHER OF
THE OTHER TWO MODELS. THE ISSUE APPEARS TO BE THE LACK OF A GOOD
TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY TODAY. THE MOS GUIDANCE IS
ALSO PRODUCING ONLY VERY LOW PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ACROSS
THE BOARD FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THAT ALL BEING
SAID...DECIDED TO KEEP THE MORNING HOURS TODAY FREE OF
PRECIPITATION...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING DURING PEAK HEATING. ALSO WENT AHEAD
AND KEPT A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AS THE
MODELS DO TRY TO BRING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY TO THE
CHANCE RANGE...AS THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO MOVE SOME SORT OF WEAK
BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. WITH MOIST AIR STILL IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA...WE COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRE
UP AGAIN ON THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
DURING PEAK DIURNAL HEATING.

TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW ARE STILL ON TRACK TO BE
WARMER THAN NORMAL GIVEN THE AIR MASS WE HAVE IN PLACE AND THE
EXPECTED SOUTHERLY WINDS. HIGHS TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL MOST
LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA. TONIGHTS
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN BOTTOM OUT IN THE BALMY LOW TO MID
60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

AN EXTENDED DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AT
THE SME...LOZ...SYM AND SJS TAF SITES SO HAVE INCLUDED MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING.
HOWEVER...WITH THE LATEST MODEL DATA SHOWING LOW PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AT BEST...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE
LOWER CIGS IN THE TAFS DUE TO PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE FROM THE SOUTH BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...AR




000
FXUS63 KJKL 270701
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
301 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

A BIT OF A CHALLENGING FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM. THE NAM12 AND
OTHER SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME COMING INTO
AGREEMENT REGARDING PRECIPITATION OCCURRENCE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE NAM12 AND GFS MODELS ARE PRODUCING VERY LITTLE QPF THROUGH 0Z
FRI...WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL IS QUITE A BIT WETTER THAN EITHER OF
THE OTHER TWO MODELS. THE ISSUE APPEARS TO BE THE LACK OF A GOOD
TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY TODAY. THE MOS GUIDANCE IS
ALSO PRODUCING ONLY VERY LOW PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ACROSS
THE BOARD FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THAT ALL BEING
SAID...DECIDED TO KEEP THE MORNING HOURS TODAY FREE OF
PRECIPITATION...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING DURING PEAK HEATING. ALSO WENT AHEAD
AND KEPT A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AS THE
MODELS DO TRY TO BRING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY TO THE
CHANCE RANGE...AS THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO MOVE SOME SORT OF WEAK
BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. WITH MOIST AIR STILL IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA...WE COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRE
UP AGAIN ON THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
DURING PEAK DIURNAL HEATING.

TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW ARE STILL ON TRACK TO BE
WARMER THAN NORMAL GIVEN THE AIR MASS WE HAVE IN PLACE AND THE
EXPECTED SOUTHERLY WINDS. HIGHS TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL MOST
LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA. TONIGHTS
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN BOTTOM OUT IN THE BALMY LOW TO MID
60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

AN EXTENDED DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AT
THE SME...LOZ...SYM AND SJS TAF SITES SO HAVE INCLUDED MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING.
HOWEVER...WITH THE LATEST MODEL DATA SHOWING LOW PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AT BEST...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE
LOWER CIGS IN THE TAFS DUE TO PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE FROM THE SOUTH BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...AR





000
FXUS63 KJKL 270530
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
130 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

JUST REFRESHED THE FORECAST GRIDS WITH THE LATEST OBS DATA TO
ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS. ASIDE FROM THAT THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1048 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY SO HAVE REDUCED
POPS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. ALSO REDUCED
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO JUST AN ISOLATED CHANCE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. TEMPS ARE MUCH COOLER WHERE THE SHOWERS ALREADY
MOVED THROUGH SO HAVE ADJUSTED T AND TD GRIDS ACCORDINGLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY NNE
THIS EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT HAD FORMED OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN
LINE HAVE BEEN STAYING UNDER SEVERE THRESHOLDS...WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING STRONG WINDS. SO FAR HAVE ONLY RECEIVED REPORTS OF
30-40 MPH WITH THE MAIN LINE.

THAT BEING SAID...FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT. SO
DID A QUICK UPDATE ON T AND TD GRIDS TO ALIGN WITH MOST RECENT
OBS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING IN A BAND SPANNING
THROUGH CENTRAL KY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BEING AIDED BY A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO OUR NW. IF EITHER INSTABILITY OR SHEAR
HAD BEEN A BIT STRONGER...A STRONGER SEVERE THREAT MAY HAVE BEEN
REALIZED THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE BETTER SHEAR IS TO OUR
NORTH...AND OUR CAPE PROFILE HAS BEEN THIN ABOVE ABOUT 17K FEET.
THINK THAT IF ANY SEVERE WX OCCURS...IT WILL BE LIMITED IN
SCOPE...AND MAINLY A WIND THREAT. THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE JKL FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING...BUT BE ON A DIMINISHING TREND SHORTLY AFTER A LOSS OF
HEATING.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT OUR MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL BE QUITE A BIT DRIER
ON WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR SUNSHINE AND STRONG HEATING. HOWEVER...DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
INTO CONVECTIVE CURRENTS AND A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT SHOULD LIMIT PRECIP. HAVE ONLY USED 20-30 PERCENT
POPS...AND EVEN THAT IS ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE.

MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING IN THE FLOW ALOFT ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE AT AN UNFAVORABLE TIME FOR PRECIP IN
THE DIURNAL PATTERN. HAVE USED A MODEST INCREASE IN POPS FOR LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT ONLY IN CHANCE CATEGORY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST/WESTERN
ATLANTIC DURING THE EXTENDED...WHILE LONGWAVE TROUGHING REMAINS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ARE STILL
PROJECTED TO MOVE ALONG THIS LONGWAVE PATTERN...EJECTING TOWARDS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. STRONG SW FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80 RANGE. AND WITH
SURFACE WINDS VARYING BETWEEN THE SW AND SE...EXPECT LARGE AMOUNTS
OF MOISTURE TO FLOW IN OFF THE GOLF OF MEXICO. AS A RESULT...ANY
SHORTWAVE WHICH PASSES ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL LIKELY
SPARK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED.
BEST COVERAGE WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WHEN
PEAK HEATING HELPS INITIATE BEST INSTABILITY...THEN DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AS WE LOSE THIS DRIVING FORCE. MODELS CONTINUE TO LEAVE
INFLATED AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE/PRECIP IN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AFTER THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY...SO CUT BACK MODEL BLEND TO BETTER
REFLECT POTENTIAL FOR NIGHT TIME CONVECTION...GENERALLY LEAVING IN
ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS.

A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY NEAR THE REGION FROM THE NW DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL BRING OUR BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND
MAYBE SOME STRONGER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT /GENERALLY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT/...SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY...BUT OVERALL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. WITH SUCH A SET UP...RAIN WILL BE
CERTAIN WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY AT THE SURFACE TO PROMOTE
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND WITH A
BOUNDARY SO NEARBY...SO LEFT IN MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THIS TIME
FRAME. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY...WITH THE BOUNDARY
RETURNING AND HELPING TO PROMOTE MORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO ROUND
OUT THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AT
THE SME...LOZ...SYM AND SJS TAF SITES SO HAVE INCLUDED MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING.
HOWEVER...WITH THE LATEST MODEL DATA SHOWING LOW PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AT BEST...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE
LOWER CIGS IN THE TAFS DUE TO PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE FROM THE SOUTH BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...AR




000
FXUS63 KJKL 270530
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
130 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

JUST REFRESHED THE FORECAST GRIDS WITH THE LATEST OBS DATA TO
ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS. ASIDE FROM THAT THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1048 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY SO HAVE REDUCED
POPS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. ALSO REDUCED
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO JUST AN ISOLATED CHANCE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. TEMPS ARE MUCH COOLER WHERE THE SHOWERS ALREADY
MOVED THROUGH SO HAVE ADJUSTED T AND TD GRIDS ACCORDINGLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY NNE
THIS EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT HAD FORMED OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN
LINE HAVE BEEN STAYING UNDER SEVERE THRESHOLDS...WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING STRONG WINDS. SO FAR HAVE ONLY RECEIVED REPORTS OF
30-40 MPH WITH THE MAIN LINE.

THAT BEING SAID...FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT. SO
DID A QUICK UPDATE ON T AND TD GRIDS TO ALIGN WITH MOST RECENT
OBS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING IN A BAND SPANNING
THROUGH CENTRAL KY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BEING AIDED BY A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO OUR NW. IF EITHER INSTABILITY OR SHEAR
HAD BEEN A BIT STRONGER...A STRONGER SEVERE THREAT MAY HAVE BEEN
REALIZED THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE BETTER SHEAR IS TO OUR
NORTH...AND OUR CAPE PROFILE HAS BEEN THIN ABOVE ABOUT 17K FEET.
THINK THAT IF ANY SEVERE WX OCCURS...IT WILL BE LIMITED IN
SCOPE...AND MAINLY A WIND THREAT. THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE JKL FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING...BUT BE ON A DIMINISHING TREND SHORTLY AFTER A LOSS OF
HEATING.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT OUR MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL BE QUITE A BIT DRIER
ON WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR SUNSHINE AND STRONG HEATING. HOWEVER...DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
INTO CONVECTIVE CURRENTS AND A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT SHOULD LIMIT PRECIP. HAVE ONLY USED 20-30 PERCENT
POPS...AND EVEN THAT IS ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE.

MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING IN THE FLOW ALOFT ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE AT AN UNFAVORABLE TIME FOR PRECIP IN
THE DIURNAL PATTERN. HAVE USED A MODEST INCREASE IN POPS FOR LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT ONLY IN CHANCE CATEGORY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST/WESTERN
ATLANTIC DURING THE EXTENDED...WHILE LONGWAVE TROUGHING REMAINS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ARE STILL
PROJECTED TO MOVE ALONG THIS LONGWAVE PATTERN...EJECTING TOWARDS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. STRONG SW FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80 RANGE. AND WITH
SURFACE WINDS VARYING BETWEEN THE SW AND SE...EXPECT LARGE AMOUNTS
OF MOISTURE TO FLOW IN OFF THE GOLF OF MEXICO. AS A RESULT...ANY
SHORTWAVE WHICH PASSES ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL LIKELY
SPARK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED.
BEST COVERAGE WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WHEN
PEAK HEATING HELPS INITIATE BEST INSTABILITY...THEN DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AS WE LOSE THIS DRIVING FORCE. MODELS CONTINUE TO LEAVE
INFLATED AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE/PRECIP IN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AFTER THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY...SO CUT BACK MODEL BLEND TO BETTER
REFLECT POTENTIAL FOR NIGHT TIME CONVECTION...GENERALLY LEAVING IN
ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS.

A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY NEAR THE REGION FROM THE NW DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL BRING OUR BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND
MAYBE SOME STRONGER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT /GENERALLY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT/...SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY...BUT OVERALL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. WITH SUCH A SET UP...RAIN WILL BE
CERTAIN WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY AT THE SURFACE TO PROMOTE
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND WITH A
BOUNDARY SO NEARBY...SO LEFT IN MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THIS TIME
FRAME. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY...WITH THE BOUNDARY
RETURNING AND HELPING TO PROMOTE MORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO ROUND
OUT THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AT
THE SME...LOZ...SYM AND SJS TAF SITES SO HAVE INCLUDED MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING.
HOWEVER...WITH THE LATEST MODEL DATA SHOWING LOW PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AT BEST...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE
LOWER CIGS IN THE TAFS DUE TO PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE FROM THE SOUTH BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...AR




000
FXUS63 KJKL 270530
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
130 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

JUST REFRESHED THE FORECAST GRIDS WITH THE LATEST OBS DATA TO
ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS. ASIDE FROM THAT THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1048 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY SO HAVE REDUCED
POPS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. ALSO REDUCED
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO JUST AN ISOLATED CHANCE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. TEMPS ARE MUCH COOLER WHERE THE SHOWERS ALREADY
MOVED THROUGH SO HAVE ADJUSTED T AND TD GRIDS ACCORDINGLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY NNE
THIS EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT HAD FORMED OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN
LINE HAVE BEEN STAYING UNDER SEVERE THRESHOLDS...WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING STRONG WINDS. SO FAR HAVE ONLY RECEIVED REPORTS OF
30-40 MPH WITH THE MAIN LINE.

THAT BEING SAID...FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT. SO
DID A QUICK UPDATE ON T AND TD GRIDS TO ALIGN WITH MOST RECENT
OBS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING IN A BAND SPANNING
THROUGH CENTRAL KY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BEING AIDED BY A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO OUR NW. IF EITHER INSTABILITY OR SHEAR
HAD BEEN A BIT STRONGER...A STRONGER SEVERE THREAT MAY HAVE BEEN
REALIZED THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE BETTER SHEAR IS TO OUR
NORTH...AND OUR CAPE PROFILE HAS BEEN THIN ABOVE ABOUT 17K FEET.
THINK THAT IF ANY SEVERE WX OCCURS...IT WILL BE LIMITED IN
SCOPE...AND MAINLY A WIND THREAT. THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE JKL FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING...BUT BE ON A DIMINISHING TREND SHORTLY AFTER A LOSS OF
HEATING.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT OUR MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL BE QUITE A BIT DRIER
ON WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR SUNSHINE AND STRONG HEATING. HOWEVER...DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
INTO CONVECTIVE CURRENTS AND A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT SHOULD LIMIT PRECIP. HAVE ONLY USED 20-30 PERCENT
POPS...AND EVEN THAT IS ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE.

MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING IN THE FLOW ALOFT ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE AT AN UNFAVORABLE TIME FOR PRECIP IN
THE DIURNAL PATTERN. HAVE USED A MODEST INCREASE IN POPS FOR LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT ONLY IN CHANCE CATEGORY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST/WESTERN
ATLANTIC DURING THE EXTENDED...WHILE LONGWAVE TROUGHING REMAINS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ARE STILL
PROJECTED TO MOVE ALONG THIS LONGWAVE PATTERN...EJECTING TOWARDS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. STRONG SW FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80 RANGE. AND WITH
SURFACE WINDS VARYING BETWEEN THE SW AND SE...EXPECT LARGE AMOUNTS
OF MOISTURE TO FLOW IN OFF THE GOLF OF MEXICO. AS A RESULT...ANY
SHORTWAVE WHICH PASSES ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL LIKELY
SPARK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED.
BEST COVERAGE WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WHEN
PEAK HEATING HELPS INITIATE BEST INSTABILITY...THEN DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AS WE LOSE THIS DRIVING FORCE. MODELS CONTINUE TO LEAVE
INFLATED AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE/PRECIP IN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AFTER THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY...SO CUT BACK MODEL BLEND TO BETTER
REFLECT POTENTIAL FOR NIGHT TIME CONVECTION...GENERALLY LEAVING IN
ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS.

A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY NEAR THE REGION FROM THE NW DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL BRING OUR BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND
MAYBE SOME STRONGER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT /GENERALLY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT/...SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY...BUT OVERALL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. WITH SUCH A SET UP...RAIN WILL BE
CERTAIN WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY AT THE SURFACE TO PROMOTE
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND WITH A
BOUNDARY SO NEARBY...SO LEFT IN MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THIS TIME
FRAME. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY...WITH THE BOUNDARY
RETURNING AND HELPING TO PROMOTE MORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO ROUND
OUT THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AT
THE SME...LOZ...SYM AND SJS TAF SITES SO HAVE INCLUDED MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING.
HOWEVER...WITH THE LATEST MODEL DATA SHOWING LOW PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AT BEST...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE
LOWER CIGS IN THE TAFS DUE TO PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE FROM THE SOUTH BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...AR





000
FXUS63 KJKL 270248
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1048 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1048 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY SO HAVE REDUCED
POPS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. ALSO REDUCED
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO JUST AN ISOLATED CHANCE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. TEMPS ARE MUCH COOLER WHERE THE SHOWERS ALREADY
MOVED THROUGH SO HAVE ADJUSTED T AND TD GRIDS ACCORDINGLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY NNE
THIS EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT HAD FORMED OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN
LINE HAVE BEEN STAYING UNDER SEVERE THRESHOLDS...WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING STRONG WINDS. SO FAR HAVE ONLY RECEIVED REPORTS OF
30-40 MPH WITH THE MAIN LINE.

THAT BEING SAID...FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT. SO
DID A QUICK UPDATE ON T AND TD GRIDS TO ALIGN WITH MOST RECENT
OBS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING IN A BAND SPANNING
THROUGH CENTRAL KY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BEING AIDED BY A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO OUR NW. IF EITHER INSTABILITY OR SHEAR
HAD BEEN A BIT STRONGER...A STRONGER SEVERE THREAT MAY HAVE BEEN
REALIZED THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE BETTER SHEAR IS TO OUR
NORTH...AND OUR CAPE PROFILE HAS BEEN THIN ABOVE ABOUT 17K FEET.
THINK THAT IF ANY SEVERE WX OCCURS...IT WILL BE LIMITED IN
SCOPE...AND MAINLY A WIND THREAT. THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE JKL FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING...BUT BE ON A DIMINISHING TREND SHORTLY AFTER A LOSS OF
HEATING.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT OUR MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL BE QUITE A BIT DRIER
ON WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR SUNSHINE AND STRONG HEATING. HOWEVER...DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
INTO CONVECTIVE CURRENTS AND A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT SHOULD LIMIT PRECIP. HAVE ONLY USED 20-30 PERCENT
POPS...AND EVEN THAT IS ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE.

MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING IN THE FLOW ALOFT ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE AT AN UNFAVORABLE TIME FOR PRECIP IN
THE DIURNAL PATTERN. HAVE USED A MODEST INCREASE IN POPS FOR LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT ONLY IN CHANCE CATEGORY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST/WESTERN
ATLANTIC DURING THE EXTENDED...WHILE LONGWAVE TROUGHING REMAINS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ARE STILL
PROJECTED TO MOVE ALONG THIS LONGWAVE PATTERN...EJECTING TOWARDS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. STRONG SW FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80 RANGE. AND WITH
SURFACE WINDS VARYING BETWEEN THE SW AND SE...EXPECT LARGE AMOUNTS
OF MOISTURE TO FLOW IN OFF THE GOLF OF MEXICO. AS A RESULT...ANY
SHORTWAVE WHICH PASSES ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL LIKELY
SPARK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED.
BEST COVERAGE WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WHEN
PEAK HEATING HELPS INITIATE BEST INSTABILITY...THEN DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AS WE LOSE THIS DRIVING FORCE. MODELS CONTINUE TO LEAVE
INFLATED AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE/PRECIP IN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AFTER THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY...SO CUT BACK MODEL BLEND TO BETTER
REFLECT POTENTIAL FOR NIGHT TIME CONVECTION...GENERALLY LEAVING IN
ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS.

A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY NEAR THE REGION FROM THE NW DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL BRING OUR BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND
MAYBE SOME STRONGER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT /GENERALLY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT/...SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY...BUT OVERALL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. WITH SUCH A SET UP...RAIN WILL BE
CERTAIN WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY AT THE SURFACE TO PROMOTE
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND WITH A
BOUNDARY SO NEARBY...SO LEFT IN MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THIS TIME
FRAME. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY...WITH THE BOUNDARY
RETURNING AND HELPING TO PROMOTE MORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO ROUND
OUT THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 0800 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY IN THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA IS SLOWLY PROGRESSING NNE. THIS LINE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS EWD PUSH ACROSS OUR CWA TONIGHT AND
SHOULD WEAKEN AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES. MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED AT
TIMES WITH THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AT THE
SME...LOZ...SYM AND SJS TAF SITES SO HAVE INCLUDED MVFR CONDITIONS
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY DEVELOPMENT AS DIURNAL HEATING OCCURS.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE LOWER
CIGS IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH BETWEEN 5
AND 10 KTS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...JVM





000
FXUS63 KJKL 270248
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1048 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1048 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY SO HAVE REDUCED
POPS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. ALSO REDUCED
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO JUST AN ISOLATED CHANCE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. TEMPS ARE MUCH COOLER WHERE THE SHOWERS ALREADY
MOVED THROUGH SO HAVE ADJUSTED T AND TD GRIDS ACCORDINGLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY NNE
THIS EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT HAD FORMED OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN
LINE HAVE BEEN STAYING UNDER SEVERE THRESHOLDS...WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING STRONG WINDS. SO FAR HAVE ONLY RECEIVED REPORTS OF
30-40 MPH WITH THE MAIN LINE.

THAT BEING SAID...FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT. SO
DID A QUICK UPDATE ON T AND TD GRIDS TO ALIGN WITH MOST RECENT
OBS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING IN A BAND SPANNING
THROUGH CENTRAL KY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BEING AIDED BY A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO OUR NW. IF EITHER INSTABILITY OR SHEAR
HAD BEEN A BIT STRONGER...A STRONGER SEVERE THREAT MAY HAVE BEEN
REALIZED THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE BETTER SHEAR IS TO OUR
NORTH...AND OUR CAPE PROFILE HAS BEEN THIN ABOVE ABOUT 17K FEET.
THINK THAT IF ANY SEVERE WX OCCURS...IT WILL BE LIMITED IN
SCOPE...AND MAINLY A WIND THREAT. THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE JKL FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING...BUT BE ON A DIMINISHING TREND SHORTLY AFTER A LOSS OF
HEATING.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT OUR MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL BE QUITE A BIT DRIER
ON WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR SUNSHINE AND STRONG HEATING. HOWEVER...DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
INTO CONVECTIVE CURRENTS AND A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT SHOULD LIMIT PRECIP. HAVE ONLY USED 20-30 PERCENT
POPS...AND EVEN THAT IS ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE.

MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING IN THE FLOW ALOFT ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE AT AN UNFAVORABLE TIME FOR PRECIP IN
THE DIURNAL PATTERN. HAVE USED A MODEST INCREASE IN POPS FOR LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT ONLY IN CHANCE CATEGORY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST/WESTERN
ATLANTIC DURING THE EXTENDED...WHILE LONGWAVE TROUGHING REMAINS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ARE STILL
PROJECTED TO MOVE ALONG THIS LONGWAVE PATTERN...EJECTING TOWARDS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. STRONG SW FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80 RANGE. AND WITH
SURFACE WINDS VARYING BETWEEN THE SW AND SE...EXPECT LARGE AMOUNTS
OF MOISTURE TO FLOW IN OFF THE GOLF OF MEXICO. AS A RESULT...ANY
SHORTWAVE WHICH PASSES ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL LIKELY
SPARK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED.
BEST COVERAGE WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WHEN
PEAK HEATING HELPS INITIATE BEST INSTABILITY...THEN DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AS WE LOSE THIS DRIVING FORCE. MODELS CONTINUE TO LEAVE
INFLATED AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE/PRECIP IN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AFTER THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY...SO CUT BACK MODEL BLEND TO BETTER
REFLECT POTENTIAL FOR NIGHT TIME CONVECTION...GENERALLY LEAVING IN
ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS.

A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY NEAR THE REGION FROM THE NW DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL BRING OUR BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND
MAYBE SOME STRONGER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT /GENERALLY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT/...SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY...BUT OVERALL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. WITH SUCH A SET UP...RAIN WILL BE
CERTAIN WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY AT THE SURFACE TO PROMOTE
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND WITH A
BOUNDARY SO NEARBY...SO LEFT IN MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THIS TIME
FRAME. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY...WITH THE BOUNDARY
RETURNING AND HELPING TO PROMOTE MORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO ROUND
OUT THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 0800 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY IN THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA IS SLOWLY PROGRESSING NNE. THIS LINE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS EWD PUSH ACROSS OUR CWA TONIGHT AND
SHOULD WEAKEN AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES. MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED AT
TIMES WITH THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AT THE
SME...LOZ...SYM AND SJS TAF SITES SO HAVE INCLUDED MVFR CONDITIONS
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY DEVELOPMENT AS DIURNAL HEATING OCCURS.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE LOWER
CIGS IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH BETWEEN 5
AND 10 KTS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...JVM




000
FXUS63 KJKL 270248
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1048 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1048 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY SO HAVE REDUCED
POPS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. ALSO REDUCED
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO JUST AN ISOLATED CHANCE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. TEMPS ARE MUCH COOLER WHERE THE SHOWERS ALREADY
MOVED THROUGH SO HAVE ADJUSTED T AND TD GRIDS ACCORDINGLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY NNE
THIS EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT HAD FORMED OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN
LINE HAVE BEEN STAYING UNDER SEVERE THRESHOLDS...WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING STRONG WINDS. SO FAR HAVE ONLY RECEIVED REPORTS OF
30-40 MPH WITH THE MAIN LINE.

THAT BEING SAID...FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT. SO
DID A QUICK UPDATE ON T AND TD GRIDS TO ALIGN WITH MOST RECENT
OBS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING IN A BAND SPANNING
THROUGH CENTRAL KY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BEING AIDED BY A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO OUR NW. IF EITHER INSTABILITY OR SHEAR
HAD BEEN A BIT STRONGER...A STRONGER SEVERE THREAT MAY HAVE BEEN
REALIZED THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE BETTER SHEAR IS TO OUR
NORTH...AND OUR CAPE PROFILE HAS BEEN THIN ABOVE ABOUT 17K FEET.
THINK THAT IF ANY SEVERE WX OCCURS...IT WILL BE LIMITED IN
SCOPE...AND MAINLY A WIND THREAT. THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE JKL FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING...BUT BE ON A DIMINISHING TREND SHORTLY AFTER A LOSS OF
HEATING.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT OUR MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL BE QUITE A BIT DRIER
ON WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR SUNSHINE AND STRONG HEATING. HOWEVER...DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
INTO CONVECTIVE CURRENTS AND A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT SHOULD LIMIT PRECIP. HAVE ONLY USED 20-30 PERCENT
POPS...AND EVEN THAT IS ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE.

MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING IN THE FLOW ALOFT ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE AT AN UNFAVORABLE TIME FOR PRECIP IN
THE DIURNAL PATTERN. HAVE USED A MODEST INCREASE IN POPS FOR LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT ONLY IN CHANCE CATEGORY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST/WESTERN
ATLANTIC DURING THE EXTENDED...WHILE LONGWAVE TROUGHING REMAINS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ARE STILL
PROJECTED TO MOVE ALONG THIS LONGWAVE PATTERN...EJECTING TOWARDS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. STRONG SW FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80 RANGE. AND WITH
SURFACE WINDS VARYING BETWEEN THE SW AND SE...EXPECT LARGE AMOUNTS
OF MOISTURE TO FLOW IN OFF THE GOLF OF MEXICO. AS A RESULT...ANY
SHORTWAVE WHICH PASSES ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL LIKELY
SPARK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED.
BEST COVERAGE WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WHEN
PEAK HEATING HELPS INITIATE BEST INSTABILITY...THEN DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AS WE LOSE THIS DRIVING FORCE. MODELS CONTINUE TO LEAVE
INFLATED AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE/PRECIP IN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AFTER THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY...SO CUT BACK MODEL BLEND TO BETTER
REFLECT POTENTIAL FOR NIGHT TIME CONVECTION...GENERALLY LEAVING IN
ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS.

A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY NEAR THE REGION FROM THE NW DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL BRING OUR BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND
MAYBE SOME STRONGER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT /GENERALLY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT/...SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY...BUT OVERALL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. WITH SUCH A SET UP...RAIN WILL BE
CERTAIN WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY AT THE SURFACE TO PROMOTE
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND WITH A
BOUNDARY SO NEARBY...SO LEFT IN MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THIS TIME
FRAME. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY...WITH THE BOUNDARY
RETURNING AND HELPING TO PROMOTE MORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO ROUND
OUT THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 0800 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY IN THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA IS SLOWLY PROGRESSING NNE. THIS LINE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS EWD PUSH ACROSS OUR CWA TONIGHT AND
SHOULD WEAKEN AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES. MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED AT
TIMES WITH THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AT THE
SME...LOZ...SYM AND SJS TAF SITES SO HAVE INCLUDED MVFR CONDITIONS
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY DEVELOPMENT AS DIURNAL HEATING OCCURS.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE LOWER
CIGS IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH BETWEEN 5
AND 10 KTS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...JVM





000
FXUS63 KJKL 270248
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1048 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1048 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY SO HAVE REDUCED
POPS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. ALSO REDUCED
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO JUST AN ISOLATED CHANCE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. TEMPS ARE MUCH COOLER WHERE THE SHOWERS ALREADY
MOVED THROUGH SO HAVE ADJUSTED T AND TD GRIDS ACCORDINGLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY NNE
THIS EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT HAD FORMED OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN
LINE HAVE BEEN STAYING UNDER SEVERE THRESHOLDS...WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING STRONG WINDS. SO FAR HAVE ONLY RECEIVED REPORTS OF
30-40 MPH WITH THE MAIN LINE.

THAT BEING SAID...FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT. SO
DID A QUICK UPDATE ON T AND TD GRIDS TO ALIGN WITH MOST RECENT
OBS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING IN A BAND SPANNING
THROUGH CENTRAL KY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BEING AIDED BY A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO OUR NW. IF EITHER INSTABILITY OR SHEAR
HAD BEEN A BIT STRONGER...A STRONGER SEVERE THREAT MAY HAVE BEEN
REALIZED THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE BETTER SHEAR IS TO OUR
NORTH...AND OUR CAPE PROFILE HAS BEEN THIN ABOVE ABOUT 17K FEET.
THINK THAT IF ANY SEVERE WX OCCURS...IT WILL BE LIMITED IN
SCOPE...AND MAINLY A WIND THREAT. THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE JKL FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING...BUT BE ON A DIMINISHING TREND SHORTLY AFTER A LOSS OF
HEATING.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT OUR MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL BE QUITE A BIT DRIER
ON WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR SUNSHINE AND STRONG HEATING. HOWEVER...DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
INTO CONVECTIVE CURRENTS AND A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT SHOULD LIMIT PRECIP. HAVE ONLY USED 20-30 PERCENT
POPS...AND EVEN THAT IS ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE.

MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING IN THE FLOW ALOFT ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE AT AN UNFAVORABLE TIME FOR PRECIP IN
THE DIURNAL PATTERN. HAVE USED A MODEST INCREASE IN POPS FOR LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT ONLY IN CHANCE CATEGORY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST/WESTERN
ATLANTIC DURING THE EXTENDED...WHILE LONGWAVE TROUGHING REMAINS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ARE STILL
PROJECTED TO MOVE ALONG THIS LONGWAVE PATTERN...EJECTING TOWARDS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. STRONG SW FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80 RANGE. AND WITH
SURFACE WINDS VARYING BETWEEN THE SW AND SE...EXPECT LARGE AMOUNTS
OF MOISTURE TO FLOW IN OFF THE GOLF OF MEXICO. AS A RESULT...ANY
SHORTWAVE WHICH PASSES ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL LIKELY
SPARK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED.
BEST COVERAGE WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WHEN
PEAK HEATING HELPS INITIATE BEST INSTABILITY...THEN DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AS WE LOSE THIS DRIVING FORCE. MODELS CONTINUE TO LEAVE
INFLATED AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE/PRECIP IN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AFTER THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY...SO CUT BACK MODEL BLEND TO BETTER
REFLECT POTENTIAL FOR NIGHT TIME CONVECTION...GENERALLY LEAVING IN
ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS.

A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY NEAR THE REGION FROM THE NW DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL BRING OUR BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND
MAYBE SOME STRONGER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT /GENERALLY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT/...SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY...BUT OVERALL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. WITH SUCH A SET UP...RAIN WILL BE
CERTAIN WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY AT THE SURFACE TO PROMOTE
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND WITH A
BOUNDARY SO NEARBY...SO LEFT IN MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THIS TIME
FRAME. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY...WITH THE BOUNDARY
RETURNING AND HELPING TO PROMOTE MORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO ROUND
OUT THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 0800 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY IN THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA IS SLOWLY PROGRESSING NNE. THIS LINE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS EWD PUSH ACROSS OUR CWA TONIGHT AND
SHOULD WEAKEN AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES. MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED AT
TIMES WITH THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AT THE
SME...LOZ...SYM AND SJS TAF SITES SO HAVE INCLUDED MVFR CONDITIONS
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY DEVELOPMENT AS DIURNAL HEATING OCCURS.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE LOWER
CIGS IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH BETWEEN 5
AND 10 KTS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...JVM




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