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000
FXUS63 KJKL 230404
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1104 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1104 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING...A BIG DISPARITY BETWEEN
WESTERN LOCATIONS AND EASTERN VALLEYS IN TEMPERATURES STILL IS
PRESENT. THROUGH THE NIGHT THOUGH...MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD HAVE BEGUN
TO WARM UP OR REMAIN STEADY. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO INGEST THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONS. A NEW ZFP WAS NOT NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1025 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE AN AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE
STILL NOSING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE IT
DIFFICULT FOR CLOUD COVER TO FILTER INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE CLOUD COVER FOR THIS OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY BRINGING
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER INTO THE AREA BY MORNING WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE WARM FRONT. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT FOR THE EVENTUAL
WARMING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE
WESTERN AREAS AND ALSO THE RIDGE TOPS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF
THE DEEPER VALLEYS TO THE EAST WILL NOT MIX OUT AT ALL. BUT THINKING
THAT THE EVENTUAL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL FINALLY MAKE IT INTO THE
VALLEYS. MOST LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY HIT THEIR LOW TEMPERATURES FOR
THE NIGHT. DID SLOW THE APPROACH OF LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS TO
UNTIL SUNDAY LATE MORNING AS IT SEEMS THE RAIN WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT
TIME REACHING THE SURFACE WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE. A DOWN SLOPE
COMPONENT WILL ALSO HINDER THIS. THOUGH...WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH DEFINITE MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON. MODELS STILL DO NOT LOOK VERY PROMISING FOR
THUNDER STILL AS INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE LACKING AND WILL NOT HAVE
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. THE ONLY OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE WINDS TO
DEAL WITH ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. HAVE KEPT THE 25 TO
35 KNOT GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE FORECAST. A NEW ZFP HAS BEEN ISSUED
WITH THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 705 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN INTERESTING TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TAP TONIGHT WITH A
FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT LIKELY TO ALLOW SOME
VALLEYS...MAINLY IN THE EAST...TO DROP CONSIDERABLY EARLY TONIGHT AS
A WARM FRONT LOOKS TO POISED TO EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTH INTO THE AREA
BY THE MORNING. HAVE UPDATED THE THE FORECAST TO ADJUST THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NIGHT. AN ADJUSTMENT MAY BE NEEDED FOR MIN
TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER LATER AS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS UP AND
A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER MAY NEED ADDRESSED. FOR NOW...HAVE
UPDATED THE GRIDS AND WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT FORECAST ALONE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
BRINGING RETURN FLOW TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS OUT OF TEXAS AND EVENTUALLY
NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THEN
EVENTUALLY THIS SHORTWAVE WILL COUPLE WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
IN THE WESTERN US AS IT PROGRESSES EAST. THIS AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL BE PART OF THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER AIDING IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS
TEXAS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NE INTO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

SENSIBLE WEATHER...AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM EXPECT INCREASE IN CLOUDS
WITH EASTERN VALLEY SPOTS POSSIBLY STILL SEEING ANOTHER NIGHT OF
DECOUPLED TEMPERATURES GIVEN LESS CLOUD COVER TONIGHT. THE ATTENDANT
WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING INCREASED CLOUDS EARLY SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY LIKELY TO DEFINITE RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MOVING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AND
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTH. MOST MODELS DO INDICATE THAT WE WILL
CONTINUE TO GET INTO A DRY SLOT WITH LESSENING PRECIP AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE NIGHT TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ALOFT AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND CARRY ON THAT WAY THROUGH
TUESDAY BEFORE THE ECMWF BREAKS RANK. IT TAKES A STRONG SHORTWAVE
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN CONTRAST TO
THE GFS VERSION THAT KEEP ITS ENERGY COINCIDENT WITH THE MAIN TROUGH
SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE GEM SORT OF SPLITS THE
DIFFERENCE WITH A SLOWER MAIN TROUGH BUT WITH LOWER HEIGHTS THROUGH
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS. BY FRIDAY THE MODELS ARE QUITE
OUT OF SYNC WITH THE GEM/S LOW HEIGHTS HANGING BACK OVER THE MID
SECTION OF THE NATION WHILE THE ECMWF BODILY MOVES ITS SECONDARY
TROUGH TO THE EAST COAST AND THE GFS HAS A FLATTER TROUGH OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF DO GET BACK IN
STEP WITH EACH OTHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS THEY BOTH DEPICT NEARLY FLAT
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH WEAK ENERGY APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST COAST. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MID TO LATE PORTION OF
THE EXTENDED WILL FAVOR A BLENDED SOLUTION FOR WEATHER DETAILS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A GRADUAL COOL DOWN IN THE WAKE OF A
LARGE SYSTEM ROLLING INTO QUEBEC. A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT DOES CROSS
THE STATE ON MONDAY WITH A BKN BAND OF SHOWERS EXPECTED. THE DEEPER
MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM/S WRAP AROUND SHOULD STAY OFF TO THE NORTH
AND EAST LEAVING MAINLY JUST SOME EXTRA CLOUDS AND LOW POPS BEHIND.
THE ECMWF AND GFS TAKE A WAVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY
BRUSHING BY EAST KENTUCKY TO THE EAST. AT THIS POINT...CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW STRAY SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW...MAINLY AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...SLIPPING INTO THE CWA AS THE LOW PASSES. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF THEN TAKE A SFC LOW THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE FORMER
MORE NORTHEAST AND STRONGER THAN THE LATTER. IT IS IN THE WAKE OF
THIS LOW...AND ITS RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT...THAT THE COLDER AIR
FINALLY SURGES INTO EAST KENTUCKY...IN THE ECMWF...ALONG WITH SOME
UPSLOPE AND GREAT LAKES ENHANCED PCPN. THE GFS KEEPS THE WORST OF THE
COLD AIR TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ALONG
WITH JUST SPOTTY PCPN CHANCES ALONG THE NEARBY BOUNDARY. SPLITTING
THE DIFFERENCE HERE MAKES FOR A COMPLICATED FORECAST...BUT THAT IS
THE BEST WE CAN DO WITHOUT A MODEL BREAK TOWARD ONE SOLUTION OR
THE OTHER. FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOST
LIKELY KEEP THE PCPN AT BAY...GENERALLY OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST BUT
IT DOES START TO PULL OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND MAY ALLOW SOMETHING TO
SLIP IN LATE.

THE CR GRID LOAD PROVIDED A GOOD START THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
WITH CHANGES MAINLY MADE TO FINE TUNE THE POPS EARLY ON. DID ALSO
MAKE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE LOWS BASED ON TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 705 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUD COVER
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH A FEW BREAKS LIKELY.
SHOULD MAINTAIN A 10 KFT DECK AND AS THE THE SHOWERS BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA AFTER DAWN AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT...A 5 KFT DECK WILL THEN
MOVE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 18Z.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...JORDAN
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER







000
FXUS63 KJKL 230404
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1104 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1104 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING...A BIG DISPARITY BETWEEN
WESTERN LOCATIONS AND EASTERN VALLEYS IN TEMPERATURES STILL IS
PRESENT. THROUGH THE NIGHT THOUGH...MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD HAVE BEGUN
TO WARM UP OR REMAIN STEADY. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO INGEST THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONS. A NEW ZFP WAS NOT NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1025 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE AN AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE
STILL NOSING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE IT
DIFFICULT FOR CLOUD COVER TO FILTER INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE CLOUD COVER FOR THIS OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY BRINGING
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER INTO THE AREA BY MORNING WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE WARM FRONT. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT FOR THE EVENTUAL
WARMING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE
WESTERN AREAS AND ALSO THE RIDGE TOPS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF
THE DEEPER VALLEYS TO THE EAST WILL NOT MIX OUT AT ALL. BUT THINKING
THAT THE EVENTUAL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL FINALLY MAKE IT INTO THE
VALLEYS. MOST LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY HIT THEIR LOW TEMPERATURES FOR
THE NIGHT. DID SLOW THE APPROACH OF LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS TO
UNTIL SUNDAY LATE MORNING AS IT SEEMS THE RAIN WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT
TIME REACHING THE SURFACE WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE. A DOWN SLOPE
COMPONENT WILL ALSO HINDER THIS. THOUGH...WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH DEFINITE MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON. MODELS STILL DO NOT LOOK VERY PROMISING FOR
THUNDER STILL AS INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE LACKING AND WILL NOT HAVE
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. THE ONLY OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE WINDS TO
DEAL WITH ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. HAVE KEPT THE 25 TO
35 KNOT GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE FORECAST. A NEW ZFP HAS BEEN ISSUED
WITH THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 705 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN INTERESTING TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TAP TONIGHT WITH A
FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT LIKELY TO ALLOW SOME
VALLEYS...MAINLY IN THE EAST...TO DROP CONSIDERABLY EARLY TONIGHT AS
A WARM FRONT LOOKS TO POISED TO EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTH INTO THE AREA
BY THE MORNING. HAVE UPDATED THE THE FORECAST TO ADJUST THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NIGHT. AN ADJUSTMENT MAY BE NEEDED FOR MIN
TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER LATER AS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS UP AND
A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER MAY NEED ADDRESSED. FOR NOW...HAVE
UPDATED THE GRIDS AND WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT FORECAST ALONE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
BRINGING RETURN FLOW TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS OUT OF TEXAS AND EVENTUALLY
NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THEN
EVENTUALLY THIS SHORTWAVE WILL COUPLE WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
IN THE WESTERN US AS IT PROGRESSES EAST. THIS AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL BE PART OF THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER AIDING IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS
TEXAS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NE INTO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

SENSIBLE WEATHER...AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM EXPECT INCREASE IN CLOUDS
WITH EASTERN VALLEY SPOTS POSSIBLY STILL SEEING ANOTHER NIGHT OF
DECOUPLED TEMPERATURES GIVEN LESS CLOUD COVER TONIGHT. THE ATTENDANT
WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING INCREASED CLOUDS EARLY SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY LIKELY TO DEFINITE RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MOVING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AND
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTH. MOST MODELS DO INDICATE THAT WE WILL
CONTINUE TO GET INTO A DRY SLOT WITH LESSENING PRECIP AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE NIGHT TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ALOFT AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND CARRY ON THAT WAY THROUGH
TUESDAY BEFORE THE ECMWF BREAKS RANK. IT TAKES A STRONG SHORTWAVE
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN CONTRAST TO
THE GFS VERSION THAT KEEP ITS ENERGY COINCIDENT WITH THE MAIN TROUGH
SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE GEM SORT OF SPLITS THE
DIFFERENCE WITH A SLOWER MAIN TROUGH BUT WITH LOWER HEIGHTS THROUGH
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS. BY FRIDAY THE MODELS ARE QUITE
OUT OF SYNC WITH THE GEM/S LOW HEIGHTS HANGING BACK OVER THE MID
SECTION OF THE NATION WHILE THE ECMWF BODILY MOVES ITS SECONDARY
TROUGH TO THE EAST COAST AND THE GFS HAS A FLATTER TROUGH OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF DO GET BACK IN
STEP WITH EACH OTHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS THEY BOTH DEPICT NEARLY FLAT
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH WEAK ENERGY APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST COAST. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MID TO LATE PORTION OF
THE EXTENDED WILL FAVOR A BLENDED SOLUTION FOR WEATHER DETAILS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A GRADUAL COOL DOWN IN THE WAKE OF A
LARGE SYSTEM ROLLING INTO QUEBEC. A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT DOES CROSS
THE STATE ON MONDAY WITH A BKN BAND OF SHOWERS EXPECTED. THE DEEPER
MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM/S WRAP AROUND SHOULD STAY OFF TO THE NORTH
AND EAST LEAVING MAINLY JUST SOME EXTRA CLOUDS AND LOW POPS BEHIND.
THE ECMWF AND GFS TAKE A WAVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY
BRUSHING BY EAST KENTUCKY TO THE EAST. AT THIS POINT...CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW STRAY SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW...MAINLY AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...SLIPPING INTO THE CWA AS THE LOW PASSES. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF THEN TAKE A SFC LOW THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE FORMER
MORE NORTHEAST AND STRONGER THAN THE LATTER. IT IS IN THE WAKE OF
THIS LOW...AND ITS RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT...THAT THE COLDER AIR
FINALLY SURGES INTO EAST KENTUCKY...IN THE ECMWF...ALONG WITH SOME
UPSLOPE AND GREAT LAKES ENHANCED PCPN. THE GFS KEEPS THE WORST OF THE
COLD AIR TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ALONG
WITH JUST SPOTTY PCPN CHANCES ALONG THE NEARBY BOUNDARY. SPLITTING
THE DIFFERENCE HERE MAKES FOR A COMPLICATED FORECAST...BUT THAT IS
THE BEST WE CAN DO WITHOUT A MODEL BREAK TOWARD ONE SOLUTION OR
THE OTHER. FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOST
LIKELY KEEP THE PCPN AT BAY...GENERALLY OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST BUT
IT DOES START TO PULL OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND MAY ALLOW SOMETHING TO
SLIP IN LATE.

THE CR GRID LOAD PROVIDED A GOOD START THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
WITH CHANGES MAINLY MADE TO FINE TUNE THE POPS EARLY ON. DID ALSO
MAKE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE LOWS BASED ON TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 705 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUD COVER
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH A FEW BREAKS LIKELY.
SHOULD MAINTAIN A 10 KFT DECK AND AS THE THE SHOWERS BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA AFTER DAWN AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT...A 5 KFT DECK WILL THEN
MOVE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 18Z.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...JORDAN
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER








000
FXUS63 KJKL 230404
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1104 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1104 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING...A BIG DISPARITY BETWEEN
WESTERN LOCATIONS AND EASTERN VALLEYS IN TEMPERATURES STILL IS
PRESENT. THROUGH THE NIGHT THOUGH...MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD HAVE BEGUN
TO WARM UP OR REMAIN STEADY. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO INGEST THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONS. A NEW ZFP WAS NOT NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1025 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE AN AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE
STILL NOSING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE IT
DIFFICULT FOR CLOUD COVER TO FILTER INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE CLOUD COVER FOR THIS OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY BRINGING
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER INTO THE AREA BY MORNING WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE WARM FRONT. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT FOR THE EVENTUAL
WARMING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE
WESTERN AREAS AND ALSO THE RIDGE TOPS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF
THE DEEPER VALLEYS TO THE EAST WILL NOT MIX OUT AT ALL. BUT THINKING
THAT THE EVENTUAL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL FINALLY MAKE IT INTO THE
VALLEYS. MOST LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY HIT THEIR LOW TEMPERATURES FOR
THE NIGHT. DID SLOW THE APPROACH OF LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS TO
UNTIL SUNDAY LATE MORNING AS IT SEEMS THE RAIN WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT
TIME REACHING THE SURFACE WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE. A DOWN SLOPE
COMPONENT WILL ALSO HINDER THIS. THOUGH...WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH DEFINITE MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON. MODELS STILL DO NOT LOOK VERY PROMISING FOR
THUNDER STILL AS INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE LACKING AND WILL NOT HAVE
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. THE ONLY OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE WINDS TO
DEAL WITH ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. HAVE KEPT THE 25 TO
35 KNOT GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE FORECAST. A NEW ZFP HAS BEEN ISSUED
WITH THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 705 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN INTERESTING TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TAP TONIGHT WITH A
FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT LIKELY TO ALLOW SOME
VALLEYS...MAINLY IN THE EAST...TO DROP CONSIDERABLY EARLY TONIGHT AS
A WARM FRONT LOOKS TO POISED TO EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTH INTO THE AREA
BY THE MORNING. HAVE UPDATED THE THE FORECAST TO ADJUST THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NIGHT. AN ADJUSTMENT MAY BE NEEDED FOR MIN
TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER LATER AS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS UP AND
A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER MAY NEED ADDRESSED. FOR NOW...HAVE
UPDATED THE GRIDS AND WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT FORECAST ALONE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
BRINGING RETURN FLOW TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS OUT OF TEXAS AND EVENTUALLY
NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THEN
EVENTUALLY THIS SHORTWAVE WILL COUPLE WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
IN THE WESTERN US AS IT PROGRESSES EAST. THIS AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL BE PART OF THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER AIDING IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS
TEXAS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NE INTO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

SENSIBLE WEATHER...AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM EXPECT INCREASE IN CLOUDS
WITH EASTERN VALLEY SPOTS POSSIBLY STILL SEEING ANOTHER NIGHT OF
DECOUPLED TEMPERATURES GIVEN LESS CLOUD COVER TONIGHT. THE ATTENDANT
WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING INCREASED CLOUDS EARLY SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY LIKELY TO DEFINITE RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MOVING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AND
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTH. MOST MODELS DO INDICATE THAT WE WILL
CONTINUE TO GET INTO A DRY SLOT WITH LESSENING PRECIP AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE NIGHT TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ALOFT AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND CARRY ON THAT WAY THROUGH
TUESDAY BEFORE THE ECMWF BREAKS RANK. IT TAKES A STRONG SHORTWAVE
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN CONTRAST TO
THE GFS VERSION THAT KEEP ITS ENERGY COINCIDENT WITH THE MAIN TROUGH
SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE GEM SORT OF SPLITS THE
DIFFERENCE WITH A SLOWER MAIN TROUGH BUT WITH LOWER HEIGHTS THROUGH
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS. BY FRIDAY THE MODELS ARE QUITE
OUT OF SYNC WITH THE GEM/S LOW HEIGHTS HANGING BACK OVER THE MID
SECTION OF THE NATION WHILE THE ECMWF BODILY MOVES ITS SECONDARY
TROUGH TO THE EAST COAST AND THE GFS HAS A FLATTER TROUGH OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF DO GET BACK IN
STEP WITH EACH OTHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS THEY BOTH DEPICT NEARLY FLAT
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH WEAK ENERGY APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST COAST. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MID TO LATE PORTION OF
THE EXTENDED WILL FAVOR A BLENDED SOLUTION FOR WEATHER DETAILS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A GRADUAL COOL DOWN IN THE WAKE OF A
LARGE SYSTEM ROLLING INTO QUEBEC. A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT DOES CROSS
THE STATE ON MONDAY WITH A BKN BAND OF SHOWERS EXPECTED. THE DEEPER
MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM/S WRAP AROUND SHOULD STAY OFF TO THE NORTH
AND EAST LEAVING MAINLY JUST SOME EXTRA CLOUDS AND LOW POPS BEHIND.
THE ECMWF AND GFS TAKE A WAVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY
BRUSHING BY EAST KENTUCKY TO THE EAST. AT THIS POINT...CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW STRAY SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW...MAINLY AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...SLIPPING INTO THE CWA AS THE LOW PASSES. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF THEN TAKE A SFC LOW THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE FORMER
MORE NORTHEAST AND STRONGER THAN THE LATTER. IT IS IN THE WAKE OF
THIS LOW...AND ITS RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT...THAT THE COLDER AIR
FINALLY SURGES INTO EAST KENTUCKY...IN THE ECMWF...ALONG WITH SOME
UPSLOPE AND GREAT LAKES ENHANCED PCPN. THE GFS KEEPS THE WORST OF THE
COLD AIR TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ALONG
WITH JUST SPOTTY PCPN CHANCES ALONG THE NEARBY BOUNDARY. SPLITTING
THE DIFFERENCE HERE MAKES FOR A COMPLICATED FORECAST...BUT THAT IS
THE BEST WE CAN DO WITHOUT A MODEL BREAK TOWARD ONE SOLUTION OR
THE OTHER. FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOST
LIKELY KEEP THE PCPN AT BAY...GENERALLY OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST BUT
IT DOES START TO PULL OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND MAY ALLOW SOMETHING TO
SLIP IN LATE.

THE CR GRID LOAD PROVIDED A GOOD START THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
WITH CHANGES MAINLY MADE TO FINE TUNE THE POPS EARLY ON. DID ALSO
MAKE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE LOWS BASED ON TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 705 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUD COVER
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH A FEW BREAKS LIKELY.
SHOULD MAINTAIN A 10 KFT DECK AND AS THE THE SHOWERS BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA AFTER DAWN AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT...A 5 KFT DECK WILL THEN
MOVE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 18Z.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...JORDAN
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER







000
FXUS63 KJKL 230404
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1104 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1104 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING...A BIG DISPARITY BETWEEN
WESTERN LOCATIONS AND EASTERN VALLEYS IN TEMPERATURES STILL IS
PRESENT. THROUGH THE NIGHT THOUGH...MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD HAVE BEGUN
TO WARM UP OR REMAIN STEADY. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO INGEST THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONS. A NEW ZFP WAS NOT NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1025 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE AN AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE
STILL NOSING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE IT
DIFFICULT FOR CLOUD COVER TO FILTER INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE CLOUD COVER FOR THIS OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY BRINGING
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER INTO THE AREA BY MORNING WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE WARM FRONT. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT FOR THE EVENTUAL
WARMING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE
WESTERN AREAS AND ALSO THE RIDGE TOPS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF
THE DEEPER VALLEYS TO THE EAST WILL NOT MIX OUT AT ALL. BUT THINKING
THAT THE EVENTUAL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL FINALLY MAKE IT INTO THE
VALLEYS. MOST LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY HIT THEIR LOW TEMPERATURES FOR
THE NIGHT. DID SLOW THE APPROACH OF LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS TO
UNTIL SUNDAY LATE MORNING AS IT SEEMS THE RAIN WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT
TIME REACHING THE SURFACE WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE. A DOWN SLOPE
COMPONENT WILL ALSO HINDER THIS. THOUGH...WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH DEFINITE MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON. MODELS STILL DO NOT LOOK VERY PROMISING FOR
THUNDER STILL AS INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE LACKING AND WILL NOT HAVE
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. THE ONLY OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE WINDS TO
DEAL WITH ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. HAVE KEPT THE 25 TO
35 KNOT GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE FORECAST. A NEW ZFP HAS BEEN ISSUED
WITH THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 705 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN INTERESTING TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TAP TONIGHT WITH A
FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT LIKELY TO ALLOW SOME
VALLEYS...MAINLY IN THE EAST...TO DROP CONSIDERABLY EARLY TONIGHT AS
A WARM FRONT LOOKS TO POISED TO EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTH INTO THE AREA
BY THE MORNING. HAVE UPDATED THE THE FORECAST TO ADJUST THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NIGHT. AN ADJUSTMENT MAY BE NEEDED FOR MIN
TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER LATER AS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS UP AND
A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER MAY NEED ADDRESSED. FOR NOW...HAVE
UPDATED THE GRIDS AND WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT FORECAST ALONE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
BRINGING RETURN FLOW TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS OUT OF TEXAS AND EVENTUALLY
NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THEN
EVENTUALLY THIS SHORTWAVE WILL COUPLE WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
IN THE WESTERN US AS IT PROGRESSES EAST. THIS AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL BE PART OF THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER AIDING IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS
TEXAS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NE INTO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

SENSIBLE WEATHER...AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM EXPECT INCREASE IN CLOUDS
WITH EASTERN VALLEY SPOTS POSSIBLY STILL SEEING ANOTHER NIGHT OF
DECOUPLED TEMPERATURES GIVEN LESS CLOUD COVER TONIGHT. THE ATTENDANT
WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING INCREASED CLOUDS EARLY SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY LIKELY TO DEFINITE RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MOVING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AND
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTH. MOST MODELS DO INDICATE THAT WE WILL
CONTINUE TO GET INTO A DRY SLOT WITH LESSENING PRECIP AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE NIGHT TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ALOFT AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND CARRY ON THAT WAY THROUGH
TUESDAY BEFORE THE ECMWF BREAKS RANK. IT TAKES A STRONG SHORTWAVE
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN CONTRAST TO
THE GFS VERSION THAT KEEP ITS ENERGY COINCIDENT WITH THE MAIN TROUGH
SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE GEM SORT OF SPLITS THE
DIFFERENCE WITH A SLOWER MAIN TROUGH BUT WITH LOWER HEIGHTS THROUGH
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS. BY FRIDAY THE MODELS ARE QUITE
OUT OF SYNC WITH THE GEM/S LOW HEIGHTS HANGING BACK OVER THE MID
SECTION OF THE NATION WHILE THE ECMWF BODILY MOVES ITS SECONDARY
TROUGH TO THE EAST COAST AND THE GFS HAS A FLATTER TROUGH OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF DO GET BACK IN
STEP WITH EACH OTHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS THEY BOTH DEPICT NEARLY FLAT
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH WEAK ENERGY APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST COAST. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MID TO LATE PORTION OF
THE EXTENDED WILL FAVOR A BLENDED SOLUTION FOR WEATHER DETAILS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A GRADUAL COOL DOWN IN THE WAKE OF A
LARGE SYSTEM ROLLING INTO QUEBEC. A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT DOES CROSS
THE STATE ON MONDAY WITH A BKN BAND OF SHOWERS EXPECTED. THE DEEPER
MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM/S WRAP AROUND SHOULD STAY OFF TO THE NORTH
AND EAST LEAVING MAINLY JUST SOME EXTRA CLOUDS AND LOW POPS BEHIND.
THE ECMWF AND GFS TAKE A WAVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY
BRUSHING BY EAST KENTUCKY TO THE EAST. AT THIS POINT...CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW STRAY SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW...MAINLY AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...SLIPPING INTO THE CWA AS THE LOW PASSES. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF THEN TAKE A SFC LOW THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE FORMER
MORE NORTHEAST AND STRONGER THAN THE LATTER. IT IS IN THE WAKE OF
THIS LOW...AND ITS RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT...THAT THE COLDER AIR
FINALLY SURGES INTO EAST KENTUCKY...IN THE ECMWF...ALONG WITH SOME
UPSLOPE AND GREAT LAKES ENHANCED PCPN. THE GFS KEEPS THE WORST OF THE
COLD AIR TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ALONG
WITH JUST SPOTTY PCPN CHANCES ALONG THE NEARBY BOUNDARY. SPLITTING
THE DIFFERENCE HERE MAKES FOR A COMPLICATED FORECAST...BUT THAT IS
THE BEST WE CAN DO WITHOUT A MODEL BREAK TOWARD ONE SOLUTION OR
THE OTHER. FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOST
LIKELY KEEP THE PCPN AT BAY...GENERALLY OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST BUT
IT DOES START TO PULL OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND MAY ALLOW SOMETHING TO
SLIP IN LATE.

THE CR GRID LOAD PROVIDED A GOOD START THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
WITH CHANGES MAINLY MADE TO FINE TUNE THE POPS EARLY ON. DID ALSO
MAKE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE LOWS BASED ON TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 705 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUD COVER
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH A FEW BREAKS LIKELY.
SHOULD MAINTAIN A 10 KFT DECK AND AS THE THE SHOWERS BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA AFTER DAWN AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT...A 5 KFT DECK WILL THEN
MOVE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 18Z.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...JORDAN
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER








000
FXUS63 KJKL 230325
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1025 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1025 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE AN AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE
STILL NOSING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE IT
DIFFICULT FOR CLOUD COVER TO FILTER INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE CLOUD COVER FOR THIS OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY BRINGING
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER INTO THE AREA BY MORNING WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE WARM FRONT. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT FOR THE EVENTUAL
WARMING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE
WESTERN AREAS AND ALSO THE RIDGE TOPS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF
THE DEEPER VALLEYS TO THE EAST WILL NOT MIX OUT AT ALL. BUT THINKING
THAT THE EVENTUAL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL FINALLY MAKE IT INTO THE
VALLEYS. MOST LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY HIT THEIR LOW TEMPERATURES FOR
THE NIGHT. DID SLOW THE APPROACH OF LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS TO
UNTIL SUNDAY LATE MORNING AS IT SEEMS THE RAIN WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT
TIME REACHING THE SURFACE WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE. A DOWN SLOPE
COMPONENT WILL ALSO HINDER THIS. THOUGH...WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH DEFINITE MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON. MODELS STILL DO NOT LOOK VERY PROMISING FOR
THUNDER STILL AS INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE LACKING AND WILL NOT HAVE
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. THE ONLY OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE WINDS TO
DEAL WITH ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. HAVE KEPT THE 25 TO
35 KNOT GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE FORECAST. A NEW ZFP HAS BEEN ISSUED
WITH THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 705 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN INTERESTING TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TAP TONIGHT WITH A
FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT LIKELY TO ALLOW SOME
VALLEYS...MAINLY IN THE EAST...TO DROP CONSIDERABLY EARLY TONIGHT AS
A WARM FRONT LOOKS TO POISED TO EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTH INTO THE AREA
BY THE MORNING. HAVE UPDATED THE THE FORECAST TO ADJUST THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NIGHT. AN ADJUSTMENT MAY BE NEEDED FOR MIN
TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER LATER AS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS UP AND
A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER MAY NEED ADDRESSED. FOR NOW...HAVE
UPDATED THE GRIDS AND WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT FORECAST ALONE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
BRINGING RETURN FLOW TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS OUT OF TEXAS AND EVENTUALLY
NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THEN
EVENTUALLY THIS SHORTWAVE WILL COUPLE WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
IN THE WESTERN US AS IT PROGRESSES EAST. THIS AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL BE PART OF THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER AIDING IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS
TEXAS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NE INTO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

SENSIBLE WEATHER...AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM EXPECT INCREASE IN CLOUDS
WITH EASTERN VALLEY SPOTS POSSIBLY STILL SEEING ANOTHER NIGHT OF
DECOUPLED TEMPERATURES GIVEN LESS CLOUD COVER TONIGHT. THE ATTENDANT
WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING INCREASED CLOUDS EARLY SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY LIKELY TO DEFINITE RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MOVING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AND
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTH. MOST MODELS DO INDICATE THAT WE WILL
CONTINUE TO GET INTO A DRY SLOT WITH LESSENING PRECIP AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE NIGHT TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ALOFT AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND CARRY ON THAT WAY THROUGH
TUESDAY BEFORE THE ECMWF BREAKS RANK. IT TAKES A STRONG SHORTWAVE
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN CONTRAST TO
THE GFS VERSION THAT KEEP ITS ENERGY COINCIDENT WITH THE MAIN TROUGH
SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE GEM SORT OF SPLITS THE
DIFFERENCE WITH A SLOWER MAIN TROUGH BUT WITH LOWER HEIGHTS THROUGH
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS. BY FRIDAY THE MODELS ARE QUITE
OUT OF SYNC WITH THE GEM/S LOW HEIGHTS HANGING BACK OVER THE MID
SECTION OF THE NATION WHILE THE ECMWF BODILY MOVES ITS SECONDARY
TROUGH TO THE EAST COAST AND THE GFS HAS A FLATTER TROUGH OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF DO GET BACK IN
STEP WITH EACH OTHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS THEY BOTH DEPICT NEARLY FLAT
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH WEAK ENERGY APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST COAST. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MID TO LATE PORTION OF
THE EXTENDED WILL FAVOR A BLENDED SOLUTION FOR WEATHER DETAILS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A GRADUAL COOL DOWN IN THE WAKE OF A
LARGE SYSTEM ROLLING INTO QUEBEC. A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT DOES CROSS
THE STATE ON MONDAY WITH A BKN BAND OF SHOWERS EXPECTED. THE DEEPER
MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM/S WRAP AROUND SHOULD STAY OFF TO THE NORTH
AND EAST LEAVING MAINLY JUST SOME EXTRA CLOUDS AND LOW POPS BEHIND.
THE ECMWF AND GFS TAKE A WAVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY
BRUSHING BY EAST KENTUCKY TO THE EAST. AT THIS POINT...CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW STRAY SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW...MAINLY AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...SLIPPING INTO THE CWA AS THE LOW PASSES. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF THEN TAKE A SFC LOW THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE FORMER
MORE NORTHEAST AND STRONGER THAN THE LATTER. IT IS IN THE WAKE OF
THIS LOW...AND ITS RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT...THAT THE COLDER AIR
FINALLY SURGES INTO EAST KENTUCKY...IN THE ECMWF...ALONG WITH SOME
UPSLOPE AND GREAT LAKES ENHANCED PCPN. THE GFS KEEPS THE WORST OF THE
COLD AIR TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ALONG
WITH JUST SPOTTY PCPN CHANCES ALONG THE NEARBY BOUNDARY. SPLITTING
THE DIFFERENCE HERE MAKES FOR A COMPLICATED FORECAST...BUT THAT IS
THE BEST WE CAN DO WITHOUT A MODEL BREAK TOWARD ONE SOLUTION OR
THE OTHER. FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOST
LIKELY KEEP THE PCPN AT BAY...GENERALLY OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST BUT
IT DOES START TO PULL OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND MAY ALLOW SOMETHING TO
SLIP IN LATE.

THE CR GRID LOAD PROVIDED A GOOD START THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
WITH CHANGES MAINLY MADE TO FINE TUNE THE POPS EARLY ON. DID ALSO
MAKE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE LOWS BASED ON TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 705 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUD COVER
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH A FEW BREAKS LIKELY.
SHOULD MAINTAIN A 10 KFT DECK AND AS THE THE SHOWERS BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA AFTER DAWN AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT...A 5 KFT DECK WILL THEN
MOVE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 18Z.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...JORDAN
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER







000
FXUS63 KJKL 230325
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1025 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1025 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE AN AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE
STILL NOSING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE IT
DIFFICULT FOR CLOUD COVER TO FILTER INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE CLOUD COVER FOR THIS OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY BRINGING
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER INTO THE AREA BY MORNING WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE WARM FRONT. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT FOR THE EVENTUAL
WARMING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE
WESTERN AREAS AND ALSO THE RIDGE TOPS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF
THE DEEPER VALLEYS TO THE EAST WILL NOT MIX OUT AT ALL. BUT THINKING
THAT THE EVENTUAL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL FINALLY MAKE IT INTO THE
VALLEYS. MOST LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY HIT THEIR LOW TEMPERATURES FOR
THE NIGHT. DID SLOW THE APPROACH OF LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS TO
UNTIL SUNDAY LATE MORNING AS IT SEEMS THE RAIN WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT
TIME REACHING THE SURFACE WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE. A DOWN SLOPE
COMPONENT WILL ALSO HINDER THIS. THOUGH...WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH DEFINITE MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON. MODELS STILL DO NOT LOOK VERY PROMISING FOR
THUNDER STILL AS INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE LACKING AND WILL NOT HAVE
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. THE ONLY OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE WINDS TO
DEAL WITH ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. HAVE KEPT THE 25 TO
35 KNOT GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE FORECAST. A NEW ZFP HAS BEEN ISSUED
WITH THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 705 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN INTERESTING TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TAP TONIGHT WITH A
FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT LIKELY TO ALLOW SOME
VALLEYS...MAINLY IN THE EAST...TO DROP CONSIDERABLY EARLY TONIGHT AS
A WARM FRONT LOOKS TO POISED TO EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTH INTO THE AREA
BY THE MORNING. HAVE UPDATED THE THE FORECAST TO ADJUST THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NIGHT. AN ADJUSTMENT MAY BE NEEDED FOR MIN
TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER LATER AS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS UP AND
A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER MAY NEED ADDRESSED. FOR NOW...HAVE
UPDATED THE GRIDS AND WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT FORECAST ALONE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
BRINGING RETURN FLOW TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS OUT OF TEXAS AND EVENTUALLY
NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THEN
EVENTUALLY THIS SHORTWAVE WILL COUPLE WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
IN THE WESTERN US AS IT PROGRESSES EAST. THIS AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL BE PART OF THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER AIDING IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS
TEXAS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NE INTO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

SENSIBLE WEATHER...AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM EXPECT INCREASE IN CLOUDS
WITH EASTERN VALLEY SPOTS POSSIBLY STILL SEEING ANOTHER NIGHT OF
DECOUPLED TEMPERATURES GIVEN LESS CLOUD COVER TONIGHT. THE ATTENDANT
WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING INCREASED CLOUDS EARLY SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY LIKELY TO DEFINITE RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MOVING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AND
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTH. MOST MODELS DO INDICATE THAT WE WILL
CONTINUE TO GET INTO A DRY SLOT WITH LESSENING PRECIP AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE NIGHT TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ALOFT AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND CARRY ON THAT WAY THROUGH
TUESDAY BEFORE THE ECMWF BREAKS RANK. IT TAKES A STRONG SHORTWAVE
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN CONTRAST TO
THE GFS VERSION THAT KEEP ITS ENERGY COINCIDENT WITH THE MAIN TROUGH
SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE GEM SORT OF SPLITS THE
DIFFERENCE WITH A SLOWER MAIN TROUGH BUT WITH LOWER HEIGHTS THROUGH
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS. BY FRIDAY THE MODELS ARE QUITE
OUT OF SYNC WITH THE GEM/S LOW HEIGHTS HANGING BACK OVER THE MID
SECTION OF THE NATION WHILE THE ECMWF BODILY MOVES ITS SECONDARY
TROUGH TO THE EAST COAST AND THE GFS HAS A FLATTER TROUGH OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF DO GET BACK IN
STEP WITH EACH OTHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS THEY BOTH DEPICT NEARLY FLAT
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH WEAK ENERGY APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST COAST. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MID TO LATE PORTION OF
THE EXTENDED WILL FAVOR A BLENDED SOLUTION FOR WEATHER DETAILS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A GRADUAL COOL DOWN IN THE WAKE OF A
LARGE SYSTEM ROLLING INTO QUEBEC. A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT DOES CROSS
THE STATE ON MONDAY WITH A BKN BAND OF SHOWERS EXPECTED. THE DEEPER
MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM/S WRAP AROUND SHOULD STAY OFF TO THE NORTH
AND EAST LEAVING MAINLY JUST SOME EXTRA CLOUDS AND LOW POPS BEHIND.
THE ECMWF AND GFS TAKE A WAVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY
BRUSHING BY EAST KENTUCKY TO THE EAST. AT THIS POINT...CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW STRAY SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW...MAINLY AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...SLIPPING INTO THE CWA AS THE LOW PASSES. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF THEN TAKE A SFC LOW THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE FORMER
MORE NORTHEAST AND STRONGER THAN THE LATTER. IT IS IN THE WAKE OF
THIS LOW...AND ITS RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT...THAT THE COLDER AIR
FINALLY SURGES INTO EAST KENTUCKY...IN THE ECMWF...ALONG WITH SOME
UPSLOPE AND GREAT LAKES ENHANCED PCPN. THE GFS KEEPS THE WORST OF THE
COLD AIR TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ALONG
WITH JUST SPOTTY PCPN CHANCES ALONG THE NEARBY BOUNDARY. SPLITTING
THE DIFFERENCE HERE MAKES FOR A COMPLICATED FORECAST...BUT THAT IS
THE BEST WE CAN DO WITHOUT A MODEL BREAK TOWARD ONE SOLUTION OR
THE OTHER. FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOST
LIKELY KEEP THE PCPN AT BAY...GENERALLY OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST BUT
IT DOES START TO PULL OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND MAY ALLOW SOMETHING TO
SLIP IN LATE.

THE CR GRID LOAD PROVIDED A GOOD START THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
WITH CHANGES MAINLY MADE TO FINE TUNE THE POPS EARLY ON. DID ALSO
MAKE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE LOWS BASED ON TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 705 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUD COVER
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH A FEW BREAKS LIKELY.
SHOULD MAINTAIN A 10 KFT DECK AND AS THE THE SHOWERS BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA AFTER DAWN AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT...A 5 KFT DECK WILL THEN
MOVE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 18Z.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...JORDAN
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER








000
FXUS63 KJKL 230009
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
709 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 705 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN INTERESTING TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TAP TONIGHT WITH A
FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT LIKELY TO ALLOW SOME
VALLEYS...MAINLY IN THE EAST...TO DROP CONSIDERABLY EARLY TONIGHT AS
A WARM FRONT LOOKS TO POISED TO EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTH INTO THE AREA
BY THE MORNING. HAVE UPDATED THE THE FORECAST TO ADJUST THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NIGHT. AN ADJUSTMENT MAY BE NEEDED FOR MIN
TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER LATER AS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS UP AND
A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER MAY NEED ADDRESSED. FOR NOW...HAVE
UPDATED THE GRIDS AND WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT FORECAST ALONE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
BRINGING RETURN FLOW TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS OUT OF TEXAS AND EVENTUALLY
NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THEN
EVENTUALLY THIS SHORTWAVE WILL COUPLE WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
IN THE WESTERN US AS IT PROGRESSES EAST. THIS AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL BE PART OF THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER AIDING IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS
TEXAS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NE INTO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

SENSIBLE WEATHER...AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM EXPECT INCREASE IN CLOUDS
WITH EASTERN VALLEY SPOTS POSSIBLY STILL SEEING ANOTHER NIGHT OF
DECOUPLED TEMPERATURES GIVEN LESS CLOUD COVER TONIGHT. THE ATTENDANT
WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING INCREASED CLOUDS EARLY SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY LIKELY TO DEFINITE RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MOVING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AND
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTH. MOST MODELS DO INDICATE THAT WE WILL
CONTINUE TO GET INTO A DRY SLOT WITH LESSENING PRECIP AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE NIGHT TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ALOFT AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND CARRY ON THAT WAY THROUGH
TUESDAY BEFORE THE ECMWF BREAKS RANK. IT TAKES A STRONG SHORTWAVE
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN CONTRAST TO
THE GFS VERSION THAT KEEP ITS ENERGY COINCIDENT WITH THE MAIN TROUGH
SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE GEM SORT OF SPLITS THE
DIFFERENCE WITH A SLOWER MAIN TROUGH BUT WITH LOWER HEIGHTS THROUGH
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS. BY FRIDAY THE MODELS ARE QUITE
OUT OF SYNC WITH THE GEM/S LOW HEIGHTS HANGING BACK OVER THE MID
SECTION OF THE NATION WHILE THE ECMWF BODILY MOVES ITS SECONDARY
TROUGH TO THE EAST COAST AND THE GFS HAS A FLATTER TROUGH OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF DO GET BACK IN
STEP WITH EACH OTHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS THEY BOTH DEPICT NEARLY FLAT
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH WEAK ENERGY APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST COAST. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MID TO LATE PORTION OF
THE EXTENDED WILL FAVOR A BLENDED SOLUTION FOR WEATHER DETAILS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A GRADUAL COOL DOWN IN THE WAKE OF A
LARGE SYSTEM ROLLING INTO QUEBEC. A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT DOES CROSS
THE STATE ON MONDAY WITH A BKN BAND OF SHOWERS EXPECTED. THE DEEPER
MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM/S WRAP AROUND SHOULD STAY OFF TO THE NORTH
AND EAST LEAVING MAINLY JUST SOME EXTRA CLOUDS AND LOW POPS BEHIND.
THE ECMWF AND GFS TAKE A WAVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY
BRUSHING BY EAST KENTUCKY TO THE EAST. AT THIS POINT...CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW STRAY SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW...MAINLY AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...SLIPPING INTO THE CWA AS THE LOW PASSES. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF THEN TAKE A SFC LOW THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE FORMER
MORE NORTHEAST AND STRONGER THAN THE LATTER. IT IS IN THE WAKE OF
THIS LOW...AND ITS RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT...THAT THE COLDER AIR
FINALLY SURGES INTO EAST KENTUCKY...IN THE ECMWF...ALONG WITH SOME
UPSLOPE AND GREAT LAKES ENHANCED PCPN. THE GFS KEEPS THE WORST OF THE
COLD AIR TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ALONG
WITH JUST SPOTTY PCPN CHANCES ALONG THE NEARBY BOUNDARY. SPLITTING
THE DIFFERENCE HERE MAKES FOR A COMPLICATED FORECAST...BUT THAT IS
THE BEST WE CAN DO WITHOUT A MODEL BREAK TOWARD ONE SOLUTION OR
THE OTHER. FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOST
LIKELY KEEP THE PCPN AT BAY...GENERALLY OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST BUT
IT DOES START TO PULL OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND MAY ALLOW SOMETHING TO
SLIP IN LATE.

THE CR GRID LOAD PROVIDED A GOOD START THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
WITH CHANGES MAINLY MADE TO FINE TUNE THE POPS EARLY ON. DID ALSO
MAKE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE LOWS BASED ON TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 705 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUD COVER
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH A FEW BREAKS LIKELY.
SHOULD MAINTAIN A 10 KFT DECK AND AS THE THE SHOWERS BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA AFTER DAWN AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT...A 5 KFT DECK WILL THEN
MOVE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 18Z.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...JORDAN
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER








000
FXUS63 KJKL 230009
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
709 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 705 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN INTERESTING TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TAP TONIGHT WITH A
FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT LIKELY TO ALLOW SOME
VALLEYS...MAINLY IN THE EAST...TO DROP CONSIDERABLY EARLY TONIGHT AS
A WARM FRONT LOOKS TO POISED TO EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTH INTO THE AREA
BY THE MORNING. HAVE UPDATED THE THE FORECAST TO ADJUST THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NIGHT. AN ADJUSTMENT MAY BE NEEDED FOR MIN
TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER LATER AS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS UP AND
A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER MAY NEED ADDRESSED. FOR NOW...HAVE
UPDATED THE GRIDS AND WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT FORECAST ALONE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
BRINGING RETURN FLOW TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS OUT OF TEXAS AND EVENTUALLY
NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THEN
EVENTUALLY THIS SHORTWAVE WILL COUPLE WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
IN THE WESTERN US AS IT PROGRESSES EAST. THIS AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL BE PART OF THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER AIDING IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS
TEXAS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NE INTO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

SENSIBLE WEATHER...AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM EXPECT INCREASE IN CLOUDS
WITH EASTERN VALLEY SPOTS POSSIBLY STILL SEEING ANOTHER NIGHT OF
DECOUPLED TEMPERATURES GIVEN LESS CLOUD COVER TONIGHT. THE ATTENDANT
WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING INCREASED CLOUDS EARLY SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY LIKELY TO DEFINITE RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MOVING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AND
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTH. MOST MODELS DO INDICATE THAT WE WILL
CONTINUE TO GET INTO A DRY SLOT WITH LESSENING PRECIP AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE NIGHT TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ALOFT AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND CARRY ON THAT WAY THROUGH
TUESDAY BEFORE THE ECMWF BREAKS RANK. IT TAKES A STRONG SHORTWAVE
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN CONTRAST TO
THE GFS VERSION THAT KEEP ITS ENERGY COINCIDENT WITH THE MAIN TROUGH
SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE GEM SORT OF SPLITS THE
DIFFERENCE WITH A SLOWER MAIN TROUGH BUT WITH LOWER HEIGHTS THROUGH
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS. BY FRIDAY THE MODELS ARE QUITE
OUT OF SYNC WITH THE GEM/S LOW HEIGHTS HANGING BACK OVER THE MID
SECTION OF THE NATION WHILE THE ECMWF BODILY MOVES ITS SECONDARY
TROUGH TO THE EAST COAST AND THE GFS HAS A FLATTER TROUGH OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF DO GET BACK IN
STEP WITH EACH OTHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS THEY BOTH DEPICT NEARLY FLAT
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH WEAK ENERGY APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST COAST. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MID TO LATE PORTION OF
THE EXTENDED WILL FAVOR A BLENDED SOLUTION FOR WEATHER DETAILS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A GRADUAL COOL DOWN IN THE WAKE OF A
LARGE SYSTEM ROLLING INTO QUEBEC. A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT DOES CROSS
THE STATE ON MONDAY WITH A BKN BAND OF SHOWERS EXPECTED. THE DEEPER
MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM/S WRAP AROUND SHOULD STAY OFF TO THE NORTH
AND EAST LEAVING MAINLY JUST SOME EXTRA CLOUDS AND LOW POPS BEHIND.
THE ECMWF AND GFS TAKE A WAVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY
BRUSHING BY EAST KENTUCKY TO THE EAST. AT THIS POINT...CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW STRAY SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW...MAINLY AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...SLIPPING INTO THE CWA AS THE LOW PASSES. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF THEN TAKE A SFC LOW THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE FORMER
MORE NORTHEAST AND STRONGER THAN THE LATTER. IT IS IN THE WAKE OF
THIS LOW...AND ITS RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT...THAT THE COLDER AIR
FINALLY SURGES INTO EAST KENTUCKY...IN THE ECMWF...ALONG WITH SOME
UPSLOPE AND GREAT LAKES ENHANCED PCPN. THE GFS KEEPS THE WORST OF THE
COLD AIR TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ALONG
WITH JUST SPOTTY PCPN CHANCES ALONG THE NEARBY BOUNDARY. SPLITTING
THE DIFFERENCE HERE MAKES FOR A COMPLICATED FORECAST...BUT THAT IS
THE BEST WE CAN DO WITHOUT A MODEL BREAK TOWARD ONE SOLUTION OR
THE OTHER. FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOST
LIKELY KEEP THE PCPN AT BAY...GENERALLY OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST BUT
IT DOES START TO PULL OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND MAY ALLOW SOMETHING TO
SLIP IN LATE.

THE CR GRID LOAD PROVIDED A GOOD START THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
WITH CHANGES MAINLY MADE TO FINE TUNE THE POPS EARLY ON. DID ALSO
MAKE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE LOWS BASED ON TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 705 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUD COVER
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH A FEW BREAKS LIKELY.
SHOULD MAINTAIN A 10 KFT DECK AND AS THE THE SHOWERS BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA AFTER DAWN AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT...A 5 KFT DECK WILL THEN
MOVE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 18Z.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...JORDAN
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER







000
FXUS63 KJKL 222003
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
303 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
BRINGING RETURN FLOW TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS OUT OF TEXAS AND EVENTUALLY
NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THEN
EVENTUALLY THIS SHORTWAVE WILL COUPLE WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
IN THE WESTERN US AS IT PROGRESSES EAST. THIS AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL BE PART OF THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER AIDING IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS
TEXAS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NE INTO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

SENSIBLE WEATHER...AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM EXPECT INCREASE IN CLOUDS
WITH EASTERN VALLEY SPOTS POSSIBLY STILL SEEING ANOTHER NIGHT OF
DECOUPLED TEMPERATURES GIVEN LESS CLOUD COVER TONIGHT. THE ATTENDANT
WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING INCREASED CLOUDS EARLY SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY LIKELY TO DEFINITE RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MOVING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AND
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTH. MOST MODELS DO INDICATE THAT WE WILL
CONTINUE TO GET INTO A DRY SLOT WITH LESSENING PRECIP AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE NIGHT TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ALOFT AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND CARRY ON THAT WAY THROUGH
TUESDAY BEFORE THE ECMWF BREAKS RANK. IT TAKES A STRONG SHORTWAVE
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN CONTRAST TO
THE GFS VERSION THAT KEEP ITS ENERGY COINCIDENT WITH THE MAIN TROUGH
SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE GEM SORT OF SPLITS THE
DIFFERENCE WITH A SLOWER MAIN TROUGH BUT WITH LOWER HEIGHTS THROUGH
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS. BY FRIDAY THE MODELS ARE QUITE
OUT OF SYNC WITH THE GEM/S LOW HEIGHTS HANGING BACK OVER THE MID
SECTION OF THE NATION WHILE THE ECMWF BODILY MOVES ITS SECONDARY
TROUGH TO THE EAST COAST AND THE GFS HAS A FLATTER TROUGH OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF DO GET BACK IN
STEP WITH EACH OTHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS THEY BOTH DEPICT NEARLY FLAT
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH WEAK ENERGY APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST COAST. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MID TO LATE PORTION OF
THE EXTENDED WILL FAVOR A BLENDED SOLUTION FOR WEATHER DETAILS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A GRADUAL COOL DOWN IN THE WAKE OF A
LARGE SYSTEM ROLLING INTO QUEBEC. A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT DOES CROSS
THE STATE ON MONDAY WITH A BKN BAND OF SHOWERS EXPECTED. THE DEEPER
MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM/S WRAP AROUND SHOULD STAY OFF TO THE NORTH
AND EAST LEAVING MAINLY JUST SOME EXTRA CLOUDS AND LOW POPS BEHIND.
THE ECMWF AND GFS TAKE A WAVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY
BRUSHING BY EAST KENTUCKY TO THE EAST. AT THIS POINT...CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW STRAY SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW...MAINLY AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...SLIPPING INTO THE CWA AS THE LOW PASSES. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF THEN TAKE A SFC LOW THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE FORMER
MORE NORTHEAST AND STRONGER THAN THE LATTER. IT IS IN THE WAKE OF
THIS LOW...AND ITS RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT...THAT THE COLDER AIR
FINALLY SURGES INTO EAST KENTUCKY...IN THE ECMWF...ALONG WITH SOME
UPSLOPE AND GREAT LAKES ENHANCED PCPN. THE GFS KEEPS THE WORST OF THE
COLD AIR TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ALONG
WITH JUST SPOTTY PCPN CHANCES ALONG THE NEARBY BOUNDARY. SPLITTING
THE DIFFERENCE HERE MAKES FOR A COMPLICATED FORECAST...BUT THAT IS
THE BEST WE CAN DO WITHOUT A MODEL BREAK TOWARD ONE SOLUTION OR
THE OTHER. FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOST
LIKELY KEEP THE PCPN AT BAY...GENERALLY OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST BUT
IT DOES START TO PULL OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND MAY ALLOW SOMETHING TO
SLIP IN LATE.

THE CR GRID LOAD PROVIDED A GOOD START THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
WITH CHANGES MAINLY MADE TO FINE TUNE THE POPS EARLY ON. DID ALSO
MAKE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE LOWS BASED ON TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT
100 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A FEW
CLOUDS AT 7KT THROUGH THE DAY. OTHERWISE MOST CLOUD COVER WILL BE AT
OR ABOVE 10K FEET AGL. AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION EXPECT 5KT
DECK TO BEGIN PROGRESSING INTO THE REGION LATE MORNING TO MID
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...AT OR
AROUND 5 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JORDAN
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JORDAN









000
FXUS63 KJKL 222003
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
303 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
BRINGING RETURN FLOW TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS OUT OF TEXAS AND EVENTUALLY
NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THEN
EVENTUALLY THIS SHORTWAVE WILL COUPLE WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
IN THE WESTERN US AS IT PROGRESSES EAST. THIS AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL BE PART OF THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER AIDING IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS
TEXAS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NE INTO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

SENSIBLE WEATHER...AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM EXPECT INCREASE IN CLOUDS
WITH EASTERN VALLEY SPOTS POSSIBLY STILL SEEING ANOTHER NIGHT OF
DECOUPLED TEMPERATURES GIVEN LESS CLOUD COVER TONIGHT. THE ATTENDANT
WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING INCREASED CLOUDS EARLY SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY LIKELY TO DEFINITE RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MOVING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AND
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTH. MOST MODELS DO INDICATE THAT WE WILL
CONTINUE TO GET INTO A DRY SLOT WITH LESSENING PRECIP AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE NIGHT TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ALOFT AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND CARRY ON THAT WAY THROUGH
TUESDAY BEFORE THE ECMWF BREAKS RANK. IT TAKES A STRONG SHORTWAVE
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN CONTRAST TO
THE GFS VERSION THAT KEEP ITS ENERGY COINCIDENT WITH THE MAIN TROUGH
SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE GEM SORT OF SPLITS THE
DIFFERENCE WITH A SLOWER MAIN TROUGH BUT WITH LOWER HEIGHTS THROUGH
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS. BY FRIDAY THE MODELS ARE QUITE
OUT OF SYNC WITH THE GEM/S LOW HEIGHTS HANGING BACK OVER THE MID
SECTION OF THE NATION WHILE THE ECMWF BODILY MOVES ITS SECONDARY
TROUGH TO THE EAST COAST AND THE GFS HAS A FLATTER TROUGH OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF DO GET BACK IN
STEP WITH EACH OTHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS THEY BOTH DEPICT NEARLY FLAT
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH WEAK ENERGY APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST COAST. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MID TO LATE PORTION OF
THE EXTENDED WILL FAVOR A BLENDED SOLUTION FOR WEATHER DETAILS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A GRADUAL COOL DOWN IN THE WAKE OF A
LARGE SYSTEM ROLLING INTO QUEBEC. A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT DOES CROSS
THE STATE ON MONDAY WITH A BKN BAND OF SHOWERS EXPECTED. THE DEEPER
MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM/S WRAP AROUND SHOULD STAY OFF TO THE NORTH
AND EAST LEAVING MAINLY JUST SOME EXTRA CLOUDS AND LOW POPS BEHIND.
THE ECMWF AND GFS TAKE A WAVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY
BRUSHING BY EAST KENTUCKY TO THE EAST. AT THIS POINT...CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW STRAY SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW...MAINLY AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...SLIPPING INTO THE CWA AS THE LOW PASSES. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF THEN TAKE A SFC LOW THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE FORMER
MORE NORTHEAST AND STRONGER THAN THE LATTER. IT IS IN THE WAKE OF
THIS LOW...AND ITS RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT...THAT THE COLDER AIR
FINALLY SURGES INTO EAST KENTUCKY...IN THE ECMWF...ALONG WITH SOME
UPSLOPE AND GREAT LAKES ENHANCED PCPN. THE GFS KEEPS THE WORST OF THE
COLD AIR TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ALONG
WITH JUST SPOTTY PCPN CHANCES ALONG THE NEARBY BOUNDARY. SPLITTING
THE DIFFERENCE HERE MAKES FOR A COMPLICATED FORECAST...BUT THAT IS
THE BEST WE CAN DO WITHOUT A MODEL BREAK TOWARD ONE SOLUTION OR
THE OTHER. FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOST
LIKELY KEEP THE PCPN AT BAY...GENERALLY OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST BUT
IT DOES START TO PULL OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND MAY ALLOW SOMETHING TO
SLIP IN LATE.

THE CR GRID LOAD PROVIDED A GOOD START THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
WITH CHANGES MAINLY MADE TO FINE TUNE THE POPS EARLY ON. DID ALSO
MAKE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE LOWS BASED ON TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT
100 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A FEW
CLOUDS AT 7KT THROUGH THE DAY. OTHERWISE MOST CLOUD COVER WILL BE AT
OR ABOVE 10K FEET AGL. AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION EXPECT 5KT
DECK TO BEGIN PROGRESSING INTO THE REGION LATE MORNING TO MID
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...AT OR
AROUND 5 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JORDAN
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JORDAN








000
FXUS63 KJKL 222003
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
303 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
BRINGING RETURN FLOW TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS OUT OF TEXAS AND EVENTUALLY
NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THEN
EVENTUALLY THIS SHORTWAVE WILL COUPLE WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
IN THE WESTERN US AS IT PROGRESSES EAST. THIS AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL BE PART OF THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER AIDING IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS
TEXAS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NE INTO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

SENSIBLE WEATHER...AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM EXPECT INCREASE IN CLOUDS
WITH EASTERN VALLEY SPOTS POSSIBLY STILL SEEING ANOTHER NIGHT OF
DECOUPLED TEMPERATURES GIVEN LESS CLOUD COVER TONIGHT. THE ATTENDANT
WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING INCREASED CLOUDS EARLY SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY LIKELY TO DEFINITE RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MOVING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AND
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTH. MOST MODELS DO INDICATE THAT WE WILL
CONTINUE TO GET INTO A DRY SLOT WITH LESSENING PRECIP AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE NIGHT TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ALOFT AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND CARRY ON THAT WAY THROUGH
TUESDAY BEFORE THE ECMWF BREAKS RANK. IT TAKES A STRONG SHORTWAVE
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN CONTRAST TO
THE GFS VERSION THAT KEEP ITS ENERGY COINCIDENT WITH THE MAIN TROUGH
SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE GEM SORT OF SPLITS THE
DIFFERENCE WITH A SLOWER MAIN TROUGH BUT WITH LOWER HEIGHTS THROUGH
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS. BY FRIDAY THE MODELS ARE QUITE
OUT OF SYNC WITH THE GEM/S LOW HEIGHTS HANGING BACK OVER THE MID
SECTION OF THE NATION WHILE THE ECMWF BODILY MOVES ITS SECONDARY
TROUGH TO THE EAST COAST AND THE GFS HAS A FLATTER TROUGH OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF DO GET BACK IN
STEP WITH EACH OTHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS THEY BOTH DEPICT NEARLY FLAT
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH WEAK ENERGY APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST COAST. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MID TO LATE PORTION OF
THE EXTENDED WILL FAVOR A BLENDED SOLUTION FOR WEATHER DETAILS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A GRADUAL COOL DOWN IN THE WAKE OF A
LARGE SYSTEM ROLLING INTO QUEBEC. A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT DOES CROSS
THE STATE ON MONDAY WITH A BKN BAND OF SHOWERS EXPECTED. THE DEEPER
MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM/S WRAP AROUND SHOULD STAY OFF TO THE NORTH
AND EAST LEAVING MAINLY JUST SOME EXTRA CLOUDS AND LOW POPS BEHIND.
THE ECMWF AND GFS TAKE A WAVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY
BRUSHING BY EAST KENTUCKY TO THE EAST. AT THIS POINT...CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW STRAY SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW...MAINLY AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...SLIPPING INTO THE CWA AS THE LOW PASSES. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF THEN TAKE A SFC LOW THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE FORMER
MORE NORTHEAST AND STRONGER THAN THE LATTER. IT IS IN THE WAKE OF
THIS LOW...AND ITS RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT...THAT THE COLDER AIR
FINALLY SURGES INTO EAST KENTUCKY...IN THE ECMWF...ALONG WITH SOME
UPSLOPE AND GREAT LAKES ENHANCED PCPN. THE GFS KEEPS THE WORST OF THE
COLD AIR TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ALONG
WITH JUST SPOTTY PCPN CHANCES ALONG THE NEARBY BOUNDARY. SPLITTING
THE DIFFERENCE HERE MAKES FOR A COMPLICATED FORECAST...BUT THAT IS
THE BEST WE CAN DO WITHOUT A MODEL BREAK TOWARD ONE SOLUTION OR
THE OTHER. FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOST
LIKELY KEEP THE PCPN AT BAY...GENERALLY OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST BUT
IT DOES START TO PULL OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND MAY ALLOW SOMETHING TO
SLIP IN LATE.

THE CR GRID LOAD PROVIDED A GOOD START THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
WITH CHANGES MAINLY MADE TO FINE TUNE THE POPS EARLY ON. DID ALSO
MAKE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE LOWS BASED ON TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT
100 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A FEW
CLOUDS AT 7KT THROUGH THE DAY. OTHERWISE MOST CLOUD COVER WILL BE AT
OR ABOVE 10K FEET AGL. AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION EXPECT 5KT
DECK TO BEGIN PROGRESSING INTO THE REGION LATE MORNING TO MID
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...AT OR
AROUND 5 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JORDAN
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JORDAN








000
FXUS63 KJKL 222003
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
303 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
BRINGING RETURN FLOW TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS OUT OF TEXAS AND EVENTUALLY
NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THEN
EVENTUALLY THIS SHORTWAVE WILL COUPLE WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
IN THE WESTERN US AS IT PROGRESSES EAST. THIS AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL BE PART OF THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER AIDING IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS
TEXAS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NE INTO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

SENSIBLE WEATHER...AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM EXPECT INCREASE IN CLOUDS
WITH EASTERN VALLEY SPOTS POSSIBLY STILL SEEING ANOTHER NIGHT OF
DECOUPLED TEMPERATURES GIVEN LESS CLOUD COVER TONIGHT. THE ATTENDANT
WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING INCREASED CLOUDS EARLY SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY LIKELY TO DEFINITE RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MOVING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AND
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTH. MOST MODELS DO INDICATE THAT WE WILL
CONTINUE TO GET INTO A DRY SLOT WITH LESSENING PRECIP AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE NIGHT TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ALOFT AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND CARRY ON THAT WAY THROUGH
TUESDAY BEFORE THE ECMWF BREAKS RANK. IT TAKES A STRONG SHORTWAVE
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN CONTRAST TO
THE GFS VERSION THAT KEEP ITS ENERGY COINCIDENT WITH THE MAIN TROUGH
SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE GEM SORT OF SPLITS THE
DIFFERENCE WITH A SLOWER MAIN TROUGH BUT WITH LOWER HEIGHTS THROUGH
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS. BY FRIDAY THE MODELS ARE QUITE
OUT OF SYNC WITH THE GEM/S LOW HEIGHTS HANGING BACK OVER THE MID
SECTION OF THE NATION WHILE THE ECMWF BODILY MOVES ITS SECONDARY
TROUGH TO THE EAST COAST AND THE GFS HAS A FLATTER TROUGH OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF DO GET BACK IN
STEP WITH EACH OTHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS THEY BOTH DEPICT NEARLY FLAT
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH WEAK ENERGY APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST COAST. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MID TO LATE PORTION OF
THE EXTENDED WILL FAVOR A BLENDED SOLUTION FOR WEATHER DETAILS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A GRADUAL COOL DOWN IN THE WAKE OF A
LARGE SYSTEM ROLLING INTO QUEBEC. A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT DOES CROSS
THE STATE ON MONDAY WITH A BKN BAND OF SHOWERS EXPECTED. THE DEEPER
MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM/S WRAP AROUND SHOULD STAY OFF TO THE NORTH
AND EAST LEAVING MAINLY JUST SOME EXTRA CLOUDS AND LOW POPS BEHIND.
THE ECMWF AND GFS TAKE A WAVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY
BRUSHING BY EAST KENTUCKY TO THE EAST. AT THIS POINT...CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW STRAY SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW...MAINLY AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...SLIPPING INTO THE CWA AS THE LOW PASSES. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF THEN TAKE A SFC LOW THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE FORMER
MORE NORTHEAST AND STRONGER THAN THE LATTER. IT IS IN THE WAKE OF
THIS LOW...AND ITS RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT...THAT THE COLDER AIR
FINALLY SURGES INTO EAST KENTUCKY...IN THE ECMWF...ALONG WITH SOME
UPSLOPE AND GREAT LAKES ENHANCED PCPN. THE GFS KEEPS THE WORST OF THE
COLD AIR TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ALONG
WITH JUST SPOTTY PCPN CHANCES ALONG THE NEARBY BOUNDARY. SPLITTING
THE DIFFERENCE HERE MAKES FOR A COMPLICATED FORECAST...BUT THAT IS
THE BEST WE CAN DO WITHOUT A MODEL BREAK TOWARD ONE SOLUTION OR
THE OTHER. FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOST
LIKELY KEEP THE PCPN AT BAY...GENERALLY OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST BUT
IT DOES START TO PULL OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND MAY ALLOW SOMETHING TO
SLIP IN LATE.

THE CR GRID LOAD PROVIDED A GOOD START THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
WITH CHANGES MAINLY MADE TO FINE TUNE THE POPS EARLY ON. DID ALSO
MAKE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE LOWS BASED ON TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT
100 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A FEW
CLOUDS AT 7KT THROUGH THE DAY. OTHERWISE MOST CLOUD COVER WILL BE AT
OR ABOVE 10K FEET AGL. AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION EXPECT 5KT
DECK TO BEGIN PROGRESSING INTO THE REGION LATE MORNING TO MID
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...AT OR
AROUND 5 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JORDAN
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JORDAN









000
FXUS63 KJKL 221955 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
255 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 150 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

FRESHENED UP TEMPS WITH LATEST OBS IN MANY LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN THAT NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED
THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1050 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA NEAR THE BLUEGRASS
CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 50S WHILE A FEW VALLEY SPOTS ACROSS
THE CWA CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE UP INTO THE LOWER 40S. THEREFORE DID
FRESHEN TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION TO MATCH CURRENT
OBS. GIVEN ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND RETURN FLOW FROM SURFACE HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
AREA WIDE TODAY. WSR-88D RADAR CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME SPRINKLES
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH CWA/BLUEGRASS REGIONS THIS MORNING. THESE
RETURNS HAVE BEEN LIGHT IN MOST CASES AND EXPECT MUCH OF THE RETURNS
SEEN ON RADAR ARE PROBABLY NOT REACHING THE GROUND. HOWEVER DID OPT
TO KEEP SPRINKLES JUST A BIT LONGER IN THE NORTHERN TIP OF THE CWA
THIS MORNING INTO AROUND THE NOON TIME FRAME GIVEN THAT REGION WOULD
LIKELY SEE THE HIGHEST RADAR RETURNS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 747 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OUT IN THE
WEST...WHERE EKQ IS CURRENTLY REPORTING IN THE MID 40S. FURTHER
EAST...VALLEYS STILL REMAIN DECOUPLED...WITH THE PAINTSVILLE MESONET
STILL REPORTING 20 DEGREES AND OUR COOP IN INEZ REPORTING AT 21
DEGREES. THE RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW LIGHT RETURNS SKIMMING BY THE
BLUEGRASS COUNTIES. FORTUNATELY...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ABOVE
FREEZING FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...AND THE LATEST RADAR AND
SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ONLY SPRINKLES FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS SUCH...HAVE MERELY FRESHENED UP THE
HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH LOW PRESSURE CRUISING THROUGH ONTARIO.
ALOFT...FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW IS IN PLACE...WITH A WEAKER SHORT
WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A STRONGER VORT IS ROTATING
ALONG NORTHERN MEXICO...WHILE ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS MOVING
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT HAS BEEN ON TAP FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...ALTHOUGH
NOT AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT. THERE ARE A FEW VALLEYS IN THE FAR EAST
REMAINING IN THE UPPER TEENS...WHILE LOW TO MID 20S ARE COMMON IN THE
BROADER VALLEYS. RIDGETOPS ARE IN THE 30S THANKS TO LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS. A DECENT 850 MB JET HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION BREAKING OUT ACROSS MOST OF
INDIANA AND DOWN INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY. THE LATEST HRRR MAY SUPPORT A
FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE I-64 CORRIDOR TOWARDS DAWN...HOWEVER GIVEN
THE DRY AIR IN PLACE CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION LOOK LOW.

ONCE THE SPRINKLES SKIRT BY TO THE NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING...DRY
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THANKS TO LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW. HIGHS TODAY WILL APPROACH THE 60 DEGREE MARK IN
PLACES...TEMPERATURES THAT WE HAVE NOT SEEN IN ABOUT A WEEK AND A
HALF. MEANWHILE...NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL TRAVERSE THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER...WHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM VORT CONTINUES TO
SLIDE EAST. THE VORT WILL THEN SWING MORE NORTHEAST...REACHING THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING ACROSS THE PLAINS...EVENTUALLY
CONGLOMERATING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL ENJOY A MILDER NIGHT TONIGHT...AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE
WEST. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 30S IN THE MORE SHELTERED
VALLEYS IN THE EAST...WHILE OTHER LOCATIONS WILL SEE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S. A WARM FRONT/MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY
BREAKING OUT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE CONTINUED
TO DOWNPLAY THE QPF AMOUNTS IN THE FAR EAST WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN
PLACE. DESPITE THE SHOWERS MOVING IN...HIGHS WILL MAKE IT BACK INTO
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ALOFT AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND CARRY ON THAT WAY THROUGH
TUESDAY BEFORE THE ECMWF BREAKS RANK. IT TAKES A STRONG SHORTWAVE
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN CONTRAST TO
THE GFS VERSION THAT KEEP ITS ENERGY COINCIDENT WITH THE MAIN TROUGH
SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE GEM SORT OF SPLITS THE
DIFFERENCE WITH A SLOWER MAIN TROUGH BUT WITH LOWER HEIGHTS THROUGH
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS. BY FRIDAY THE MODELS ARE QUITE
OUT OF SYNC WITH THE GEM/S LOW HEIGHTS HANGING BACK OVER THE MID
SECTION OF THE NATION WHILE THE ECMWF BODILY MOVES ITS SECONDARY
TROUGH TO THE EAST COAST AND THE GFS HAS A FLATTER TROUGH OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF DO GET BACK IN
STEP WITH EACH OTHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS THEY BOTH DEPICT NEARLY FLAT
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH WEAK ENERGY APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST COAST. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MID TO LATE PORTION OF
THE EXTENDED WILL FAVOR A BLENDED SOLUTION FOR WEATHER DETAILS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A GRADUAL COOL DOWN IN THE WAKE OF A
LARGE SYSTEM ROLLING INTO QUEBEC. A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT DOES CROSS
THE STATE ON MONDAY WITH A BKN BAND OF SHOWERS EXPECTED. THE DEEPER
MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM/S WRAP AROUND SHOULD STAY OFF TO THE NORTH
AND EAST LEAVING MAINLY JUST SOME EXTRA CLOUDS AND LOW POPS BEHIND.
THE ECMWF AND GFS TAKE A WAVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY
BRUSHING BY EAST KENTUCKY TO THE EAST. AT THIS POINT...CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW STRAY SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW...MAINLY AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...SLIPPING INTO THE CWA AS THE LOW PASSES. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF THEN TAKE A SFC LOW THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE FORMER
MORE NORTHEAST AND STRONGER THAN THE LATTER. IT IS IN THE WAKE OF
THIS LOW...AND ITS RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT...THAT THE COLDER AIR
FINALLY SURGES INTO EAST KENTUCKY...IN THE ECMWF...ALONG WITH SOME
UPSLOPE AND GREAT LAKES ENHANCED PCPN. THE GFS KEEPS THE WORST OF THE
COLD AIR TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ALONG
WITH JUST SPOTTY PCPN CHANCES ALONG THE NEARBY BOUNDARY. SPLITTING
THE DIFFERENCE HERE MAKES FOR A COMPLICATED FORECAST...BUT THAT IS
THE BEST WE CAN DO WITHOUT A MODEL BREAK TOWARD ONE SOLUTION OR
THE OTHER. FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOST
LIKELY KEEP THE PCPN AT BAY...GENERALLY OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST BUT
IT DOES START TO PULL OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND MAY ALLOW SOMETHING TO
SLIP IN LATE.

THE CR GRID LOAD PROVIDED A GOOD START THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
WITH CHANGES MAINLY MADE TO FINE TUNE THE POPS EARLY ON. DID ALSO
MAKE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE LOWS BASED ON TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 747 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME PASSING LOW
CLOUDS BETWEEN 4 AND 5K FEET AGL WILL BE SEEN THIS MORNING...AND THEN
ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z. OTHERWISE MOST CLOUD COVER WILL BE AT
OR ABOVE 10K FEET AGL. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST...AT OR AROUND 5 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN








000
FXUS63 KJKL 221955 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
255 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 150 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

FRESHENED UP TEMPS WITH LATEST OBS IN MANY LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN THAT NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED
THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1050 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA NEAR THE BLUEGRASS
CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 50S WHILE A FEW VALLEY SPOTS ACROSS
THE CWA CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE UP INTO THE LOWER 40S. THEREFORE DID
FRESHEN TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION TO MATCH CURRENT
OBS. GIVEN ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND RETURN FLOW FROM SURFACE HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
AREA WIDE TODAY. WSR-88D RADAR CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME SPRINKLES
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH CWA/BLUEGRASS REGIONS THIS MORNING. THESE
RETURNS HAVE BEEN LIGHT IN MOST CASES AND EXPECT MUCH OF THE RETURNS
SEEN ON RADAR ARE PROBABLY NOT REACHING THE GROUND. HOWEVER DID OPT
TO KEEP SPRINKLES JUST A BIT LONGER IN THE NORTHERN TIP OF THE CWA
THIS MORNING INTO AROUND THE NOON TIME FRAME GIVEN THAT REGION WOULD
LIKELY SEE THE HIGHEST RADAR RETURNS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 747 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OUT IN THE
WEST...WHERE EKQ IS CURRENTLY REPORTING IN THE MID 40S. FURTHER
EAST...VALLEYS STILL REMAIN DECOUPLED...WITH THE PAINTSVILLE MESONET
STILL REPORTING 20 DEGREES AND OUR COOP IN INEZ REPORTING AT 21
DEGREES. THE RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW LIGHT RETURNS SKIMMING BY THE
BLUEGRASS COUNTIES. FORTUNATELY...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ABOVE
FREEZING FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...AND THE LATEST RADAR AND
SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ONLY SPRINKLES FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS SUCH...HAVE MERELY FRESHENED UP THE
HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH LOW PRESSURE CRUISING THROUGH ONTARIO.
ALOFT...FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW IS IN PLACE...WITH A WEAKER SHORT
WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A STRONGER VORT IS ROTATING
ALONG NORTHERN MEXICO...WHILE ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS MOVING
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT HAS BEEN ON TAP FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...ALTHOUGH
NOT AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT. THERE ARE A FEW VALLEYS IN THE FAR EAST
REMAINING IN THE UPPER TEENS...WHILE LOW TO MID 20S ARE COMMON IN THE
BROADER VALLEYS. RIDGETOPS ARE IN THE 30S THANKS TO LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS. A DECENT 850 MB JET HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION BREAKING OUT ACROSS MOST OF
INDIANA AND DOWN INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY. THE LATEST HRRR MAY SUPPORT A
FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE I-64 CORRIDOR TOWARDS DAWN...HOWEVER GIVEN
THE DRY AIR IN PLACE CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION LOOK LOW.

ONCE THE SPRINKLES SKIRT BY TO THE NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING...DRY
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THANKS TO LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW. HIGHS TODAY WILL APPROACH THE 60 DEGREE MARK IN
PLACES...TEMPERATURES THAT WE HAVE NOT SEEN IN ABOUT A WEEK AND A
HALF. MEANWHILE...NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL TRAVERSE THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER...WHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM VORT CONTINUES TO
SLIDE EAST. THE VORT WILL THEN SWING MORE NORTHEAST...REACHING THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING ACROSS THE PLAINS...EVENTUALLY
CONGLOMERATING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL ENJOY A MILDER NIGHT TONIGHT...AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE
WEST. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 30S IN THE MORE SHELTERED
VALLEYS IN THE EAST...WHILE OTHER LOCATIONS WILL SEE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S. A WARM FRONT/MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY
BREAKING OUT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE CONTINUED
TO DOWNPLAY THE QPF AMOUNTS IN THE FAR EAST WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN
PLACE. DESPITE THE SHOWERS MOVING IN...HIGHS WILL MAKE IT BACK INTO
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ALOFT AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND CARRY ON THAT WAY THROUGH
TUESDAY BEFORE THE ECMWF BREAKS RANK. IT TAKES A STRONG SHORTWAVE
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN CONTRAST TO
THE GFS VERSION THAT KEEP ITS ENERGY COINCIDENT WITH THE MAIN TROUGH
SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE GEM SORT OF SPLITS THE
DIFFERENCE WITH A SLOWER MAIN TROUGH BUT WITH LOWER HEIGHTS THROUGH
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS. BY FRIDAY THE MODELS ARE QUITE
OUT OF SYNC WITH THE GEM/S LOW HEIGHTS HANGING BACK OVER THE MID
SECTION OF THE NATION WHILE THE ECMWF BODILY MOVES ITS SECONDARY
TROUGH TO THE EAST COAST AND THE GFS HAS A FLATTER TROUGH OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF DO GET BACK IN
STEP WITH EACH OTHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS THEY BOTH DEPICT NEARLY FLAT
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH WEAK ENERGY APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST COAST. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MID TO LATE PORTION OF
THE EXTENDED WILL FAVOR A BLENDED SOLUTION FOR WEATHER DETAILS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A GRADUAL COOL DOWN IN THE WAKE OF A
LARGE SYSTEM ROLLING INTO QUEBEC. A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT DOES CROSS
THE STATE ON MONDAY WITH A BKN BAND OF SHOWERS EXPECTED. THE DEEPER
MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM/S WRAP AROUND SHOULD STAY OFF TO THE NORTH
AND EAST LEAVING MAINLY JUST SOME EXTRA CLOUDS AND LOW POPS BEHIND.
THE ECMWF AND GFS TAKE A WAVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY
BRUSHING BY EAST KENTUCKY TO THE EAST. AT THIS POINT...CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW STRAY SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW...MAINLY AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...SLIPPING INTO THE CWA AS THE LOW PASSES. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF THEN TAKE A SFC LOW THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE FORMER
MORE NORTHEAST AND STRONGER THAN THE LATTER. IT IS IN THE WAKE OF
THIS LOW...AND ITS RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT...THAT THE COLDER AIR
FINALLY SURGES INTO EAST KENTUCKY...IN THE ECMWF...ALONG WITH SOME
UPSLOPE AND GREAT LAKES ENHANCED PCPN. THE GFS KEEPS THE WORST OF THE
COLD AIR TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ALONG
WITH JUST SPOTTY PCPN CHANCES ALONG THE NEARBY BOUNDARY. SPLITTING
THE DIFFERENCE HERE MAKES FOR A COMPLICATED FORECAST...BUT THAT IS
THE BEST WE CAN DO WITHOUT A MODEL BREAK TOWARD ONE SOLUTION OR
THE OTHER. FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOST
LIKELY KEEP THE PCPN AT BAY...GENERALLY OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST BUT
IT DOES START TO PULL OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND MAY ALLOW SOMETHING TO
SLIP IN LATE.

THE CR GRID LOAD PROVIDED A GOOD START THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
WITH CHANGES MAINLY MADE TO FINE TUNE THE POPS EARLY ON. DID ALSO
MAKE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE LOWS BASED ON TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 747 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME PASSING LOW
CLOUDS BETWEEN 4 AND 5K FEET AGL WILL BE SEEN THIS MORNING...AND THEN
ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z. OTHERWISE MOST CLOUD COVER WILL BE AT
OR ABOVE 10K FEET AGL. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST...AT OR AROUND 5 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN







000
FXUS63 KJKL 221853
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
153 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 150 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

FRESHENED UP TEMPS WITH LATEST OBS IN MANY LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN THAT NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED
THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1050 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA NEAR THE BLUEGRASS
CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 50S WHILE A FEW VALLEY SPOTS ACROSS
THE CWA CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE UP INTO THE LOWER 40S. THEREFORE DID
FRESHEN TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION TO MATCH CURRENT
OBS. GIVEN ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND RETURN FLOW FROM SURFACE HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
AREA WIDE TODAY. WSR-88D RADAR CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME SPRINKLES
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH CWA/BLUEGRASS REGIONS THIS MORNING. THESE
RETURNS HAVE BEEN LIGHT IN MOST CASES AND EXPECT MUCH OF THE RETURNS
SEEN ON RADAR ARE PROBABLY NOT REACHING THE GROUND. HOWEVER DID OPT
TO KEEP SPRINKLES JUST A BIT LONGER IN THE NORTHERN TIP OF THE CWA
THIS MORNING INTO AROUND THE NOON TIME FRAME GIVEN THAT REGION WOULD
LIKELY SEE THE HIGHEST RADAR RETURNS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 747 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OUT IN THE
WEST...WHERE EKQ IS CURRENTLY REPORTING IN THE MID 40S. FURTHER
EAST...VALLEYS STILL REMAIN DECOUPLED...WITH THE PAINTSVILLE MESONET
STILL REPORTING 20 DEGREES AND OUR COOP IN INEZ REPORTING AT 21
DEGREES. THE RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW LIGHT RETURNS SKIMMING BY THE
BLUEGRASS COUNTIES. FORTUNATELY...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ABOVE
FREEZING FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...AND THE LATEST RADAR AND
SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ONLY SPRINKLES FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS SUCH...HAVE MERELY FRESHENED UP THE
HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH LOW PRESSURE CRUISING THROUGH ONTARIO.
ALOFT...FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW IS IN PLACE...WITH A WEAKER SHORT
WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A STRONGER VORT IS ROTATING
ALONG NORTHERN MEXICO...WHILE ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS MOVING
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT HAS BEEN ON TAP FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...ALTHOUGH
NOT AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT. THERE ARE A FEW VALLEYS IN THE FAR EAST
REMAINING IN THE UPPER TEENS...WHILE LOW TO MID 20S ARE COMMON IN THE
BROADER VALLEYS. RIDGETOPS ARE IN THE 30S THANKS TO LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS. A DECENT 850 MB JET HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION BREAKING OUT ACROSS MOST OF
INDIANA AND DOWN INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY. THE LATEST HRRR MAY SUPPORT A
FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE I-64 CORRIDOR TOWARDS DAWN...HOWEVER GIVEN
THE DRY AIR IN PLACE CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION LOOK LOW.

ONCE THE SPRINKLES SKIRT BY TO THE NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING...DRY
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THANKS TO LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW. HIGHS TODAY WILL APPROACH THE 60 DEGREE MARK IN
PLACES...TEMPERATURES THAT WE HAVE NOT SEEN IN ABOUT A WEEK AND A
HALF. MEANWHILE...NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL TRAVERSE THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER...WHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM VORT CONTINUES TO
SLIDE EAST. THE VORT WILL THEN SWING MORE NORTHEAST...REACHING THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING ACROSS THE PLAINS...EVENTUALLY
CONGLOMERATING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL ENJOY A MILDER NIGHT TONIGHT...AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE
WEST. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 30S IN THE MORE SHELTERED
VALLEYS IN THE EAST...WHILE OTHER LOCATIONS WILL SEE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S. A WARM FRONT/MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY
BREAKING OUT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE CONTINUED
TO DOWNPLAY THE QPF AMOUNTS IN THE FAR EAST WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN
PLACE. DESPITE THE SHOWERS MOVING IN...HIGHS WILL MAKE IT BACK INTO
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAST THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO THE
NORTH SUNDAY EVENING. GFS IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE ON BRINGING THE
DRY SLOT IN QUICKLY SUNDAY EVENING...WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS IT BACK
EARLY ON. BASIC THINKING IS THAT EVEN IF THE DRY SLOT MOVES IN
FASTER...WE MAY STILL GET DEVELOPMENT INTO THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH
THE NIGHT OR POSSIBLY EVEN SOME MEASURABLE DRIZZLE. THUS...WILL
MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT...WITH DRIZZLE BECOMING MORE LIKELY AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

ON MONDAY...A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO AND CROSS THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD AGAIN BRING HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AS IT CROSSES THE
AREA THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A TUMBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. AFTER CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 60S...TEMPERATURES BY THE EVENING
SHOULD SETTLE BACK INTO THE 40S. STILL LOOKS LIKE A WINDY DAY...WITH
925MB WINDS TOPPING 35 KNOTS AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY ACTUALLY HELP TO MIX DOWN SOME ISOLATED HIGHER
GUSTS TO 40 OR 45 MPH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY MONDAY
NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO A
POSSIBLE NOREASTER AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE EASTERN
US COAST. 00Z ECMWF HAS SHIFTED THE TRACK OF THIS LOW BACK TO THE
WEST...BRINGING MOISTURE INTO THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. GOING TO
MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST...BUT IF THIS SYSTEM TRENDS ANY FARTHER
WEST...MAY NEED TO INSERT SOME POPS BY WEDNESDAY.

MODELS REALLY DIVERGE THEREAFTER AS WE HEAD INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.
GFS BUILDS A RIDGE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...SUGGESTING
TEMPERATURES MAY REACH INTO THE 50S...WHILE THE ECMWF DIGS OUT
ANOTHER SHARP TROUGH AND WOULD PUT TEMPERATURES MORE INTO THE 30S
WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOW. CLEARLY THIS IS A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN
THE MODELS...AND PUTS LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE THANKSGIVING
FORECAST AND BEYOND. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISED
FORECAST...WITH A SLIGHT EDGE TOWARDS THE COLDER ECMWF AS IT HAS
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT ON THE COLDER SOLUTION. WILL ALSO MAINTAIN LOW
POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AND GO WITH A MIXTURE OF
RAIN/SNOW THROUGH THIS PERIOD. IT DOES LOOK REGARDLESS OF
THANKSGIVING DAY...MODELS POINT TO A MUCH COLDER END TO THE
WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING WELL BELOW NORMAL INTO FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WE SHOULD SEE DRIER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 747 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME PASSING LOW
CLOUDS BETWEEN 4 AND 5K FEET AGL WILL BE SEEN THIS MORNING...AND THEN
ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z. OTHERWISE MOST CLOUD COVER WILL BE AT
OR ABOVE 10K FEET AGL. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST...AT OR AROUND 5 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN







000
FXUS63 KJKL 221853
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
153 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 150 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

FRESHENED UP TEMPS WITH LATEST OBS IN MANY LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN THAT NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED
THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1050 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA NEAR THE BLUEGRASS
CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 50S WHILE A FEW VALLEY SPOTS ACROSS
THE CWA CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE UP INTO THE LOWER 40S. THEREFORE DID
FRESHEN TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION TO MATCH CURRENT
OBS. GIVEN ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND RETURN FLOW FROM SURFACE HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
AREA WIDE TODAY. WSR-88D RADAR CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME SPRINKLES
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH CWA/BLUEGRASS REGIONS THIS MORNING. THESE
RETURNS HAVE BEEN LIGHT IN MOST CASES AND EXPECT MUCH OF THE RETURNS
SEEN ON RADAR ARE PROBABLY NOT REACHING THE GROUND. HOWEVER DID OPT
TO KEEP SPRINKLES JUST A BIT LONGER IN THE NORTHERN TIP OF THE CWA
THIS MORNING INTO AROUND THE NOON TIME FRAME GIVEN THAT REGION WOULD
LIKELY SEE THE HIGHEST RADAR RETURNS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 747 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OUT IN THE
WEST...WHERE EKQ IS CURRENTLY REPORTING IN THE MID 40S. FURTHER
EAST...VALLEYS STILL REMAIN DECOUPLED...WITH THE PAINTSVILLE MESONET
STILL REPORTING 20 DEGREES AND OUR COOP IN INEZ REPORTING AT 21
DEGREES. THE RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW LIGHT RETURNS SKIMMING BY THE
BLUEGRASS COUNTIES. FORTUNATELY...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ABOVE
FREEZING FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...AND THE LATEST RADAR AND
SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ONLY SPRINKLES FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS SUCH...HAVE MERELY FRESHENED UP THE
HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH LOW PRESSURE CRUISING THROUGH ONTARIO.
ALOFT...FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW IS IN PLACE...WITH A WEAKER SHORT
WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A STRONGER VORT IS ROTATING
ALONG NORTHERN MEXICO...WHILE ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS MOVING
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT HAS BEEN ON TAP FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...ALTHOUGH
NOT AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT. THERE ARE A FEW VALLEYS IN THE FAR EAST
REMAINING IN THE UPPER TEENS...WHILE LOW TO MID 20S ARE COMMON IN THE
BROADER VALLEYS. RIDGETOPS ARE IN THE 30S THANKS TO LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS. A DECENT 850 MB JET HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION BREAKING OUT ACROSS MOST OF
INDIANA AND DOWN INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY. THE LATEST HRRR MAY SUPPORT A
FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE I-64 CORRIDOR TOWARDS DAWN...HOWEVER GIVEN
THE DRY AIR IN PLACE CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION LOOK LOW.

ONCE THE SPRINKLES SKIRT BY TO THE NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING...DRY
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THANKS TO LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW. HIGHS TODAY WILL APPROACH THE 60 DEGREE MARK IN
PLACES...TEMPERATURES THAT WE HAVE NOT SEEN IN ABOUT A WEEK AND A
HALF. MEANWHILE...NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL TRAVERSE THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER...WHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM VORT CONTINUES TO
SLIDE EAST. THE VORT WILL THEN SWING MORE NORTHEAST...REACHING THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING ACROSS THE PLAINS...EVENTUALLY
CONGLOMERATING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL ENJOY A MILDER NIGHT TONIGHT...AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE
WEST. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 30S IN THE MORE SHELTERED
VALLEYS IN THE EAST...WHILE OTHER LOCATIONS WILL SEE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S. A WARM FRONT/MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY
BREAKING OUT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE CONTINUED
TO DOWNPLAY THE QPF AMOUNTS IN THE FAR EAST WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN
PLACE. DESPITE THE SHOWERS MOVING IN...HIGHS WILL MAKE IT BACK INTO
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAST THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO THE
NORTH SUNDAY EVENING. GFS IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE ON BRINGING THE
DRY SLOT IN QUICKLY SUNDAY EVENING...WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS IT BACK
EARLY ON. BASIC THINKING IS THAT EVEN IF THE DRY SLOT MOVES IN
FASTER...WE MAY STILL GET DEVELOPMENT INTO THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH
THE NIGHT OR POSSIBLY EVEN SOME MEASURABLE DRIZZLE. THUS...WILL
MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT...WITH DRIZZLE BECOMING MORE LIKELY AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

ON MONDAY...A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO AND CROSS THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD AGAIN BRING HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AS IT CROSSES THE
AREA THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A TUMBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. AFTER CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 60S...TEMPERATURES BY THE EVENING
SHOULD SETTLE BACK INTO THE 40S. STILL LOOKS LIKE A WINDY DAY...WITH
925MB WINDS TOPPING 35 KNOTS AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY ACTUALLY HELP TO MIX DOWN SOME ISOLATED HIGHER
GUSTS TO 40 OR 45 MPH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY MONDAY
NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO A
POSSIBLE NOREASTER AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE EASTERN
US COAST. 00Z ECMWF HAS SHIFTED THE TRACK OF THIS LOW BACK TO THE
WEST...BRINGING MOISTURE INTO THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. GOING TO
MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST...BUT IF THIS SYSTEM TRENDS ANY FARTHER
WEST...MAY NEED TO INSERT SOME POPS BY WEDNESDAY.

MODELS REALLY DIVERGE THEREAFTER AS WE HEAD INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.
GFS BUILDS A RIDGE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...SUGGESTING
TEMPERATURES MAY REACH INTO THE 50S...WHILE THE ECMWF DIGS OUT
ANOTHER SHARP TROUGH AND WOULD PUT TEMPERATURES MORE INTO THE 30S
WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOW. CLEARLY THIS IS A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN
THE MODELS...AND PUTS LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE THANKSGIVING
FORECAST AND BEYOND. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISED
FORECAST...WITH A SLIGHT EDGE TOWARDS THE COLDER ECMWF AS IT HAS
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT ON THE COLDER SOLUTION. WILL ALSO MAINTAIN LOW
POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AND GO WITH A MIXTURE OF
RAIN/SNOW THROUGH THIS PERIOD. IT DOES LOOK REGARDLESS OF
THANKSGIVING DAY...MODELS POINT TO A MUCH COLDER END TO THE
WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING WELL BELOW NORMAL INTO FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WE SHOULD SEE DRIER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 747 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME PASSING LOW
CLOUDS BETWEEN 4 AND 5K FEET AGL WILL BE SEEN THIS MORNING...AND THEN
ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z. OTHERWISE MOST CLOUD COVER WILL BE AT
OR ABOVE 10K FEET AGL. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST...AT OR AROUND 5 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN








000
FXUS63 KJKL 221553
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1053 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA NEAR THE BLUEGRASS
CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 50S WHILE A FEW VALLEY SPOTS ACROSS
THE CWA CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE UP INTO THE LOWER 40S. THEREFORE DID
FRESHEN TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION TO MATCH CURRENT
OBS. GIVEN ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND RETURN FLOW FROM SURFACE HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
AREA WIDE TODAY. WSR-88D RADAR CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME SPRINKLES
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH CWA/BLUEGRASS REGIONS THIS MORNING. THESE
RETURNS HAVE BEEN LIGHT IN MOST CASES AND EXPECT MUCH OF THE RETURNS
SEEN ON RADAR ARE PROBABLY NOT REACHING THE GROUND. HOWEVER DID OPT
TO KEEP SPRINKLES JUST A BIT LONGER IN THE NORTHERN TIP OF THE CWA
THIS MORNING INTO AROUND THE NOON TIME FRAME GIVEN THAT REGION WOULD
LIKELY SEE THE HIGHEST RADAR RETURNS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 747 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OUT IN THE
WEST...WHERE EKQ IS CURRENTLY REPORTING IN THE MID 40S. FURTHER
EAST...VALLEYS STILL REMAIN DECOUPLED...WITH THE PAINTSVILLE MESONET
STILL REPORTING 20 DEGREES AND OUR COOP IN INEZ REPORTING AT 21
DEGREES. THE RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW LIGHT RETURNS SKIMMING BY THE
BLUEGRASS COUNTIES. FORTUNATELY...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ABOVE
FREEZING FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...AND THE LATEST RADAR AND
SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ONLY SPRINKLES FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS SUCH...HAVE MERELY FRESHENED UP THE
HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH LOW PRESSURE CRUISING THROUGH ONTARIO.
ALOFT...FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW IS IN PLACE...WITH A WEAKER SHORT
WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A STRONGER VORT IS ROTATING
ALONG NORTHERN MEXICO...WHILE ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS MOVING
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT HAS BEEN ON TAP FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...ALTHOUGH
NOT AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT. THERE ARE A FEW VALLEYS IN THE FAR EAST
REMAINING IN THE UPPER TEENS...WHILE LOW TO MID 20S ARE COMMON IN THE
BROADER VALLEYS. RIDGETOPS ARE IN THE 30S THANKS TO LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS. A DECENT 850 MB JET HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION BREAKING OUT ACROSS MOST OF
INDIANA AND DOWN INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY. THE LATEST HRRR MAY SUPPORT A
FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE I-64 CORRIDOR TOWARDS DAWN...HOWEVER GIVEN
THE DRY AIR IN PLACE CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION LOOK LOW.

ONCE THE SPRINKLES SKIRT BY TO THE NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING...DRY
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THANKS TO LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW. HIGHS TODAY WILL APPROACH THE 60 DEGREE MARK IN
PLACES...TEMPERATURES THAT WE HAVE NOT SEEN IN ABOUT A WEEK AND A
HALF. MEANWHILE...NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL TRAVERSE THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER...WHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM VORT CONTINUES TO
SLIDE EAST. THE VORT WILL THEN SWING MORE NORTHEAST...REACHING THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING ACROSS THE PLAINS...EVENTUALLY
CONGLOMERATING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL ENJOY A MILDER NIGHT TONIGHT...AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE
WEST. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 30S IN THE MORE SHELTERED
VALLEYS IN THE EAST...WHILE OTHER LOCATIONS WILL SEE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S. A WARM FRONT/MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY
BREAKING OUT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE CONTINUED
TO DOWNPLAY THE QPF AMOUNTS IN THE FAR EAST WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN
PLACE. DESPITE THE SHOWERS MOVING IN...HIGHS WILL MAKE IT BACK INTO
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAST THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO THE
NORTH SUNDAY EVENING. GFS IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE ON BRINGING THE
DRY SLOT IN QUICKLY SUNDAY EVENING...WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS IT BACK
EARLY ON. BASIC THINKING IS THAT EVEN IF THE DRY SLOT MOVES IN
FASTER...WE MAY STILL GET DEVELOPMENT INTO THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH
THE NIGHT OR POSSIBLY EVEN SOME MEASURABLE DRIZZLE. THUS...WILL
MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT...WITH DRIZZLE BECOMING MORE LIKELY AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

ON MONDAY...A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO AND CROSS THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD AGAIN BRING HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AS IT CROSSES THE
AREA THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A TUMBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. AFTER CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 60S...TEMPERATURES BY THE EVENING
SHOULD SETTLE BACK INTO THE 40S. STILL LOOKS LIKE A WINDY DAY...WITH
925MB WINDS TOPPING 35 KNOTS AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY ACTUALLY HELP TO MIX DOWN SOME ISOLATED HIGHER
GUSTS TO 40 OR 45 MPH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY MONDAY
NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO A
POSSIBLE NOREASTER AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE EASTERN
US COAST. 00Z ECMWF HAS SHIFTED THE TRACK OF THIS LOW BACK TO THE
WEST...BRINGING MOISTURE INTO THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. GOING TO
MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST...BUT IF THIS SYSTEM TRENDS ANY FARTHER
WEST...MAY NEED TO INSERT SOME POPS BY WEDNESDAY.

MODELS REALLY DIVERGE THEREAFTER AS WE HEAD INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.
GFS BUILDS A RIDGE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...SUGGESTING
TEMPERATURES MAY REACH INTO THE 50S...WHILE THE ECMWF DIGS OUT
ANOTHER SHARP TROUGH AND WOULD PUT TEMPERATURES MORE INTO THE 30S
WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOW. CLEARLY THIS IS A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN
THE MODELS...AND PUTS LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE THANKSGIVING
FORECAST AND BEYOND. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISED
FORECAST...WITH A SLIGHT EDGE TOWARDS THE COLDER ECMWF AS IT HAS
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT ON THE COLDER SOLUTION. WILL ALSO MAINTAIN LOW
POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AND GO WITH A MIXTURE OF
RAIN/SNOW THROUGH THIS PERIOD. IT DOES LOOK REGARDLESS OF
THANKSGIVING DAY...MODELS POINT TO A MUCH COLDER END TO THE
WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING WELL BELOW NORMAL INTO FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WE SHOULD SEE DRIER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 747 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME PASSING LOW
CLOUDS BETWEEN 4 AND 5K FEET AGL WILL BE SEEN THIS MORNING...AND THEN
ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z. OTHERWISE MOST CLOUD COVER WILL BE AT
OR ABOVE 10K FEET AGL. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST...AT OR AROUND 5 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN







000
FXUS63 KJKL 221553
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1053 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA NEAR THE BLUEGRASS
CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 50S WHILE A FEW VALLEY SPOTS ACROSS
THE CWA CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE UP INTO THE LOWER 40S. THEREFORE DID
FRESHEN TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION TO MATCH CURRENT
OBS. GIVEN ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND RETURN FLOW FROM SURFACE HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
AREA WIDE TODAY. WSR-88D RADAR CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME SPRINKLES
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH CWA/BLUEGRASS REGIONS THIS MORNING. THESE
RETURNS HAVE BEEN LIGHT IN MOST CASES AND EXPECT MUCH OF THE RETURNS
SEEN ON RADAR ARE PROBABLY NOT REACHING THE GROUND. HOWEVER DID OPT
TO KEEP SPRINKLES JUST A BIT LONGER IN THE NORTHERN TIP OF THE CWA
THIS MORNING INTO AROUND THE NOON TIME FRAME GIVEN THAT REGION WOULD
LIKELY SEE THE HIGHEST RADAR RETURNS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 747 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OUT IN THE
WEST...WHERE EKQ IS CURRENTLY REPORTING IN THE MID 40S. FURTHER
EAST...VALLEYS STILL REMAIN DECOUPLED...WITH THE PAINTSVILLE MESONET
STILL REPORTING 20 DEGREES AND OUR COOP IN INEZ REPORTING AT 21
DEGREES. THE RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW LIGHT RETURNS SKIMMING BY THE
BLUEGRASS COUNTIES. FORTUNATELY...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ABOVE
FREEZING FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...AND THE LATEST RADAR AND
SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ONLY SPRINKLES FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS SUCH...HAVE MERELY FRESHENED UP THE
HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH LOW PRESSURE CRUISING THROUGH ONTARIO.
ALOFT...FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW IS IN PLACE...WITH A WEAKER SHORT
WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A STRONGER VORT IS ROTATING
ALONG NORTHERN MEXICO...WHILE ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS MOVING
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT HAS BEEN ON TAP FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...ALTHOUGH
NOT AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT. THERE ARE A FEW VALLEYS IN THE FAR EAST
REMAINING IN THE UPPER TEENS...WHILE LOW TO MID 20S ARE COMMON IN THE
BROADER VALLEYS. RIDGETOPS ARE IN THE 30S THANKS TO LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS. A DECENT 850 MB JET HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION BREAKING OUT ACROSS MOST OF
INDIANA AND DOWN INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY. THE LATEST HRRR MAY SUPPORT A
FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE I-64 CORRIDOR TOWARDS DAWN...HOWEVER GIVEN
THE DRY AIR IN PLACE CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION LOOK LOW.

ONCE THE SPRINKLES SKIRT BY TO THE NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING...DRY
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THANKS TO LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW. HIGHS TODAY WILL APPROACH THE 60 DEGREE MARK IN
PLACES...TEMPERATURES THAT WE HAVE NOT SEEN IN ABOUT A WEEK AND A
HALF. MEANWHILE...NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL TRAVERSE THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER...WHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM VORT CONTINUES TO
SLIDE EAST. THE VORT WILL THEN SWING MORE NORTHEAST...REACHING THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING ACROSS THE PLAINS...EVENTUALLY
CONGLOMERATING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL ENJOY A MILDER NIGHT TONIGHT...AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE
WEST. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 30S IN THE MORE SHELTERED
VALLEYS IN THE EAST...WHILE OTHER LOCATIONS WILL SEE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S. A WARM FRONT/MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY
BREAKING OUT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE CONTINUED
TO DOWNPLAY THE QPF AMOUNTS IN THE FAR EAST WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN
PLACE. DESPITE THE SHOWERS MOVING IN...HIGHS WILL MAKE IT BACK INTO
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAST THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO THE
NORTH SUNDAY EVENING. GFS IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE ON BRINGING THE
DRY SLOT IN QUICKLY SUNDAY EVENING...WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS IT BACK
EARLY ON. BASIC THINKING IS THAT EVEN IF THE DRY SLOT MOVES IN
FASTER...WE MAY STILL GET DEVELOPMENT INTO THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH
THE NIGHT OR POSSIBLY EVEN SOME MEASURABLE DRIZZLE. THUS...WILL
MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT...WITH DRIZZLE BECOMING MORE LIKELY AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

ON MONDAY...A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO AND CROSS THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD AGAIN BRING HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AS IT CROSSES THE
AREA THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A TUMBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. AFTER CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 60S...TEMPERATURES BY THE EVENING
SHOULD SETTLE BACK INTO THE 40S. STILL LOOKS LIKE A WINDY DAY...WITH
925MB WINDS TOPPING 35 KNOTS AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY ACTUALLY HELP TO MIX DOWN SOME ISOLATED HIGHER
GUSTS TO 40 OR 45 MPH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY MONDAY
NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO A
POSSIBLE NOREASTER AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE EASTERN
US COAST. 00Z ECMWF HAS SHIFTED THE TRACK OF THIS LOW BACK TO THE
WEST...BRINGING MOISTURE INTO THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. GOING TO
MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST...BUT IF THIS SYSTEM TRENDS ANY FARTHER
WEST...MAY NEED TO INSERT SOME POPS BY WEDNESDAY.

MODELS REALLY DIVERGE THEREAFTER AS WE HEAD INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.
GFS BUILDS A RIDGE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...SUGGESTING
TEMPERATURES MAY REACH INTO THE 50S...WHILE THE ECMWF DIGS OUT
ANOTHER SHARP TROUGH AND WOULD PUT TEMPERATURES MORE INTO THE 30S
WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOW. CLEARLY THIS IS A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN
THE MODELS...AND PUTS LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE THANKSGIVING
FORECAST AND BEYOND. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISED
FORECAST...WITH A SLIGHT EDGE TOWARDS THE COLDER ECMWF AS IT HAS
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT ON THE COLDER SOLUTION. WILL ALSO MAINTAIN LOW
POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AND GO WITH A MIXTURE OF
RAIN/SNOW THROUGH THIS PERIOD. IT DOES LOOK REGARDLESS OF
THANKSGIVING DAY...MODELS POINT TO A MUCH COLDER END TO THE
WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING WELL BELOW NORMAL INTO FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WE SHOULD SEE DRIER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 747 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME PASSING LOW
CLOUDS BETWEEN 4 AND 5K FEET AGL WILL BE SEEN THIS MORNING...AND THEN
ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z. OTHERWISE MOST CLOUD COVER WILL BE AT
OR ABOVE 10K FEET AGL. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST...AT OR AROUND 5 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN








000
FXUS63 KJKL 221553
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1053 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA NEAR THE BLUEGRASS
CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 50S WHILE A FEW VALLEY SPOTS ACROSS
THE CWA CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE UP INTO THE LOWER 40S. THEREFORE DID
FRESHEN TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION TO MATCH CURRENT
OBS. GIVEN ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND RETURN FLOW FROM SURFACE HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
AREA WIDE TODAY. WSR-88D RADAR CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME SPRINKLES
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH CWA/BLUEGRASS REGIONS THIS MORNING. THESE
RETURNS HAVE BEEN LIGHT IN MOST CASES AND EXPECT MUCH OF THE RETURNS
SEEN ON RADAR ARE PROBABLY NOT REACHING THE GROUND. HOWEVER DID OPT
TO KEEP SPRINKLES JUST A BIT LONGER IN THE NORTHERN TIP OF THE CWA
THIS MORNING INTO AROUND THE NOON TIME FRAME GIVEN THAT REGION WOULD
LIKELY SEE THE HIGHEST RADAR RETURNS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 747 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OUT IN THE
WEST...WHERE EKQ IS CURRENTLY REPORTING IN THE MID 40S. FURTHER
EAST...VALLEYS STILL REMAIN DECOUPLED...WITH THE PAINTSVILLE MESONET
STILL REPORTING 20 DEGREES AND OUR COOP IN INEZ REPORTING AT 21
DEGREES. THE RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW LIGHT RETURNS SKIMMING BY THE
BLUEGRASS COUNTIES. FORTUNATELY...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ABOVE
FREEZING FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...AND THE LATEST RADAR AND
SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ONLY SPRINKLES FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS SUCH...HAVE MERELY FRESHENED UP THE
HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH LOW PRESSURE CRUISING THROUGH ONTARIO.
ALOFT...FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW IS IN PLACE...WITH A WEAKER SHORT
WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A STRONGER VORT IS ROTATING
ALONG NORTHERN MEXICO...WHILE ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS MOVING
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT HAS BEEN ON TAP FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...ALTHOUGH
NOT AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT. THERE ARE A FEW VALLEYS IN THE FAR EAST
REMAINING IN THE UPPER TEENS...WHILE LOW TO MID 20S ARE COMMON IN THE
BROADER VALLEYS. RIDGETOPS ARE IN THE 30S THANKS TO LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS. A DECENT 850 MB JET HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION BREAKING OUT ACROSS MOST OF
INDIANA AND DOWN INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY. THE LATEST HRRR MAY SUPPORT A
FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE I-64 CORRIDOR TOWARDS DAWN...HOWEVER GIVEN
THE DRY AIR IN PLACE CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION LOOK LOW.

ONCE THE SPRINKLES SKIRT BY TO THE NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING...DRY
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THANKS TO LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW. HIGHS TODAY WILL APPROACH THE 60 DEGREE MARK IN
PLACES...TEMPERATURES THAT WE HAVE NOT SEEN IN ABOUT A WEEK AND A
HALF. MEANWHILE...NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL TRAVERSE THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER...WHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM VORT CONTINUES TO
SLIDE EAST. THE VORT WILL THEN SWING MORE NORTHEAST...REACHING THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING ACROSS THE PLAINS...EVENTUALLY
CONGLOMERATING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL ENJOY A MILDER NIGHT TONIGHT...AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE
WEST. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 30S IN THE MORE SHELTERED
VALLEYS IN THE EAST...WHILE OTHER LOCATIONS WILL SEE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S. A WARM FRONT/MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY
BREAKING OUT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE CONTINUED
TO DOWNPLAY THE QPF AMOUNTS IN THE FAR EAST WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN
PLACE. DESPITE THE SHOWERS MOVING IN...HIGHS WILL MAKE IT BACK INTO
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAST THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO THE
NORTH SUNDAY EVENING. GFS IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE ON BRINGING THE
DRY SLOT IN QUICKLY SUNDAY EVENING...WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS IT BACK
EARLY ON. BASIC THINKING IS THAT EVEN IF THE DRY SLOT MOVES IN
FASTER...WE MAY STILL GET DEVELOPMENT INTO THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH
THE NIGHT OR POSSIBLY EVEN SOME MEASURABLE DRIZZLE. THUS...WILL
MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT...WITH DRIZZLE BECOMING MORE LIKELY AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

ON MONDAY...A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO AND CROSS THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD AGAIN BRING HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AS IT CROSSES THE
AREA THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A TUMBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. AFTER CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 60S...TEMPERATURES BY THE EVENING
SHOULD SETTLE BACK INTO THE 40S. STILL LOOKS LIKE A WINDY DAY...WITH
925MB WINDS TOPPING 35 KNOTS AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY ACTUALLY HELP TO MIX DOWN SOME ISOLATED HIGHER
GUSTS TO 40 OR 45 MPH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY MONDAY
NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO A
POSSIBLE NOREASTER AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE EASTERN
US COAST. 00Z ECMWF HAS SHIFTED THE TRACK OF THIS LOW BACK TO THE
WEST...BRINGING MOISTURE INTO THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. GOING TO
MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST...BUT IF THIS SYSTEM TRENDS ANY FARTHER
WEST...MAY NEED TO INSERT SOME POPS BY WEDNESDAY.

MODELS REALLY DIVERGE THEREAFTER AS WE HEAD INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.
GFS BUILDS A RIDGE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...SUGGESTING
TEMPERATURES MAY REACH INTO THE 50S...WHILE THE ECMWF DIGS OUT
ANOTHER SHARP TROUGH AND WOULD PUT TEMPERATURES MORE INTO THE 30S
WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOW. CLEARLY THIS IS A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN
THE MODELS...AND PUTS LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE THANKSGIVING
FORECAST AND BEYOND. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISED
FORECAST...WITH A SLIGHT EDGE TOWARDS THE COLDER ECMWF AS IT HAS
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT ON THE COLDER SOLUTION. WILL ALSO MAINTAIN LOW
POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AND GO WITH A MIXTURE OF
RAIN/SNOW THROUGH THIS PERIOD. IT DOES LOOK REGARDLESS OF
THANKSGIVING DAY...MODELS POINT TO A MUCH COLDER END TO THE
WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING WELL BELOW NORMAL INTO FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WE SHOULD SEE DRIER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 747 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME PASSING LOW
CLOUDS BETWEEN 4 AND 5K FEET AGL WILL BE SEEN THIS MORNING...AND THEN
ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z. OTHERWISE MOST CLOUD COVER WILL BE AT
OR ABOVE 10K FEET AGL. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST...AT OR AROUND 5 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN







000
FXUS63 KJKL 221247 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
747 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 747 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OUT IN THE
WEST...WHERE EKQ IS CURRENTLY REPORTING IN THE MID 40S. FURTHER
EAST...VALLEYS STILL REMAIN DECOUPLED...WITH THE PAINTSVILLE MESONET
STILL REPORTING 20 DEGREES AND OUR COOP IN INEZ REPORTING AT 21
DEGREES. THE RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW LIGHT RETURNS SKIMMING BY THE
BLUEGRASS COUNTIES. FORTUNATELY...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ABOVE
FREEZING FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...AND THE LATEST RADAR AND
SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ONLY SPRINKLES FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS SUCH...HAVE MERELY FRESHENED UP THE
HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH LOW PRESSURE CRUISING THROUGH ONTARIO.
ALOFT...FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW IS IN PLACE...WITH A WEAKER SHORT
WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A STRONGER VORT IS ROTATING
ALONG NORTHERN MEXICO...WHILE ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS MOVING
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT HAS BEEN ON TAP FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...ALTHOUGH
NOT AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT. THERE ARE A FEW VALLEYS IN THE FAR EAST
REMAINING IN THE UPPER TEENS...WHILE LOW TO MID 20S ARE COMMON IN THE
BROADER VALLEYS. RIDGETOPS ARE IN THE 30S THANKS TO LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS. A DECENT 850 MB JET HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION BREAKING OUT ACROSS MOST OF
INDIANA AND DOWN INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY. THE LATEST HRRR MAY SUPPORT A
FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE I-64 CORRIDOR TOWARDS DAWN...HOWEVER GIVEN
THE DRY AIR IN PLACE CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION LOOK LOW.

ONCE THE SPRINKLES SKIRT BY TO THE NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING...DRY
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THANKS TO LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW. HIGHS TODAY WILL APPROACH THE 60 DEGREE MARK IN
PLACES...TEMPERATURES THAT WE HAVE NOT SEEN IN ABOUT A WEEK AND A
HALF. MEANWHILE...NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL TRAVERSE THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER...WHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM VORT CONTINUES TO
SLIDE EAST. THE VORT WILL THEN SWING MORE NORTHEAST...REACHING THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING ACROSS THE PLAINS...EVENTUALLY
CONGLOMERATING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL ENJOY A MILDER NIGHT TONIGHT...AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE
WEST. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 30S IN THE MORE SHELTERED
VALLEYS IN THE EAST...WHILE OTHER LOCATIONS WILL SEE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S. A WARM FRONT/MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY
BREAKING OUT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE CONTINUED
TO DOWNPLAY THE QPF AMOUNTS IN THE FAR EAST WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN
PLACE. DESPITE THE SHOWERS MOVING IN...HIGHS WILL MAKE IT BACK INTO
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAST THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO THE
NORTH SUNDAY EVENING. GFS IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE ON BRINGING THE
DRY SLOT IN QUICKLY SUNDAY EVENING...WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS IT BACK
EARLY ON. BASIC THINKING IS THAT EVEN IF THE DRY SLOT MOVES IN
FASTER...WE MAY STILL GET DEVELOPMENT INTO THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH
THE NIGHT OR POSSIBLY EVEN SOME MEASURABLE DRIZZLE. THUS...WILL
MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT...WITH DRIZZLE BECOMING MORE LIKELY AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

ON MONDAY...A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO AND CROSS THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD AGAIN BRING HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AS IT CROSSES THE
AREA THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A TUMBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. AFTER CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 60S...TEMPERATURES BY THE EVENING
SHOULD SETTLE BACK INTO THE 40S. STILL LOOKS LIKE A WINDY DAY...WITH
925MB WINDS TOPPING 35 KNOTS AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY ACTUALLY HELP TO MIX DOWN SOME ISOLATED HIGHER
GUSTS TO 40 OR 45 MPH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY MONDAY
NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO A
POSSIBLE NOREASTER AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE EASTERN
US COAST. 00Z ECMWF HAS SHIFTED THE TRACK OF THIS LOW BACK TO THE
WEST...BRINGING MOISTURE INTO THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. GOING TO
MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST...BUT IF THIS SYSTEM TRENDS ANY FARTHER
WEST...MAY NEED TO INSERT SOME POPS BY WEDNESDAY.

MODELS REALLY DIVERGE THEREAFTER AS WE HEAD INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.
GFS BUILDS A RIDGE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...SUGGESTING
TEMPERATURES MAY REACH INTO THE 50S...WHILE THE ECMWF DIGS OUT
ANOTHER SHARP TROUGH AND WOULD PUT TEMPERATURES MORE INTO THE 30S
WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOW. CLEARLY THIS IS A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN
THE MODELS...AND PUTS LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE THANKSGIVING
FORECAST AND BEYOND. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISED
FORECAST...WITH A SLIGHT EDGE TOWARDS THE COLDER ECMWF AS IT HAS
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT ON THE COLDER SOLUTION. WILL ALSO MAINTAIN LOW
POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AND GO WITH A MIXTURE OF
RAIN/SNOW THROUGH THIS PERIOD. IT DOES LOOK REGARDLESS OF
THANKSGIVING DAY...MODELS POINT TO A MUCH COLDER END TO THE
WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING WELL BELOW NORMAL INTO FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WE SHOULD SEE DRIER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 747 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME PASSING LOW
CLOUDS BETWEEN 4 AND 5K FEET AGL WILL BE SEEN THIS MORNING...AND THEN
ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z. OTHERWISE MOST CLOUD COVER WILL BE AT
OR ABOVE 10K FEET AGL. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST...AT OR AROUND 5 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN








000
FXUS63 KJKL 221247 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
747 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 747 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OUT IN THE
WEST...WHERE EKQ IS CURRENTLY REPORTING IN THE MID 40S. FURTHER
EAST...VALLEYS STILL REMAIN DECOUPLED...WITH THE PAINTSVILLE MESONET
STILL REPORTING 20 DEGREES AND OUR COOP IN INEZ REPORTING AT 21
DEGREES. THE RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW LIGHT RETURNS SKIMMING BY THE
BLUEGRASS COUNTIES. FORTUNATELY...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ABOVE
FREEZING FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...AND THE LATEST RADAR AND
SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ONLY SPRINKLES FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS SUCH...HAVE MERELY FRESHENED UP THE
HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH LOW PRESSURE CRUISING THROUGH ONTARIO.
ALOFT...FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW IS IN PLACE...WITH A WEAKER SHORT
WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A STRONGER VORT IS ROTATING
ALONG NORTHERN MEXICO...WHILE ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS MOVING
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT HAS BEEN ON TAP FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...ALTHOUGH
NOT AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT. THERE ARE A FEW VALLEYS IN THE FAR EAST
REMAINING IN THE UPPER TEENS...WHILE LOW TO MID 20S ARE COMMON IN THE
BROADER VALLEYS. RIDGETOPS ARE IN THE 30S THANKS TO LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS. A DECENT 850 MB JET HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION BREAKING OUT ACROSS MOST OF
INDIANA AND DOWN INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY. THE LATEST HRRR MAY SUPPORT A
FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE I-64 CORRIDOR TOWARDS DAWN...HOWEVER GIVEN
THE DRY AIR IN PLACE CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION LOOK LOW.

ONCE THE SPRINKLES SKIRT BY TO THE NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING...DRY
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THANKS TO LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW. HIGHS TODAY WILL APPROACH THE 60 DEGREE MARK IN
PLACES...TEMPERATURES THAT WE HAVE NOT SEEN IN ABOUT A WEEK AND A
HALF. MEANWHILE...NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL TRAVERSE THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER...WHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM VORT CONTINUES TO
SLIDE EAST. THE VORT WILL THEN SWING MORE NORTHEAST...REACHING THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING ACROSS THE PLAINS...EVENTUALLY
CONGLOMERATING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL ENJOY A MILDER NIGHT TONIGHT...AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE
WEST. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 30S IN THE MORE SHELTERED
VALLEYS IN THE EAST...WHILE OTHER LOCATIONS WILL SEE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S. A WARM FRONT/MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY
BREAKING OUT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE CONTINUED
TO DOWNPLAY THE QPF AMOUNTS IN THE FAR EAST WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN
PLACE. DESPITE THE SHOWERS MOVING IN...HIGHS WILL MAKE IT BACK INTO
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAST THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO THE
NORTH SUNDAY EVENING. GFS IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE ON BRINGING THE
DRY SLOT IN QUICKLY SUNDAY EVENING...WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS IT BACK
EARLY ON. BASIC THINKING IS THAT EVEN IF THE DRY SLOT MOVES IN
FASTER...WE MAY STILL GET DEVELOPMENT INTO THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH
THE NIGHT OR POSSIBLY EVEN SOME MEASURABLE DRIZZLE. THUS...WILL
MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT...WITH DRIZZLE BECOMING MORE LIKELY AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

ON MONDAY...A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO AND CROSS THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD AGAIN BRING HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AS IT CROSSES THE
AREA THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A TUMBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. AFTER CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 60S...TEMPERATURES BY THE EVENING
SHOULD SETTLE BACK INTO THE 40S. STILL LOOKS LIKE A WINDY DAY...WITH
925MB WINDS TOPPING 35 KNOTS AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY ACTUALLY HELP TO MIX DOWN SOME ISOLATED HIGHER
GUSTS TO 40 OR 45 MPH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY MONDAY
NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO A
POSSIBLE NOREASTER AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE EASTERN
US COAST. 00Z ECMWF HAS SHIFTED THE TRACK OF THIS LOW BACK TO THE
WEST...BRINGING MOISTURE INTO THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. GOING TO
MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST...BUT IF THIS SYSTEM TRENDS ANY FARTHER
WEST...MAY NEED TO INSERT SOME POPS BY WEDNESDAY.

MODELS REALLY DIVERGE THEREAFTER AS WE HEAD INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.
GFS BUILDS A RIDGE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...SUGGESTING
TEMPERATURES MAY REACH INTO THE 50S...WHILE THE ECMWF DIGS OUT
ANOTHER SHARP TROUGH AND WOULD PUT TEMPERATURES MORE INTO THE 30S
WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOW. CLEARLY THIS IS A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN
THE MODELS...AND PUTS LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE THANKSGIVING
FORECAST AND BEYOND. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISED
FORECAST...WITH A SLIGHT EDGE TOWARDS THE COLDER ECMWF AS IT HAS
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT ON THE COLDER SOLUTION. WILL ALSO MAINTAIN LOW
POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AND GO WITH A MIXTURE OF
RAIN/SNOW THROUGH THIS PERIOD. IT DOES LOOK REGARDLESS OF
THANKSGIVING DAY...MODELS POINT TO A MUCH COLDER END TO THE
WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING WELL BELOW NORMAL INTO FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WE SHOULD SEE DRIER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 747 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME PASSING LOW
CLOUDS BETWEEN 4 AND 5K FEET AGL WILL BE SEEN THIS MORNING...AND THEN
ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z. OTHERWISE MOST CLOUD COVER WILL BE AT
OR ABOVE 10K FEET AGL. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST...AT OR AROUND 5 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN







000
FXUS63 KJKL 220837
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
337 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH LOW PRESSURE CRUISING THROUGH ONTARIO.
ALOFT...FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW IS IN PLACE...WITH A WEAKER SHORT
WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A STRONGER VORT IS ROTATING
ALONG NORTHERN MEXICO...WHILE ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS MOVING
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT HAS BEEN ON TAP FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...ALTHOUGH
NOT AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT. THERE ARE A FEW VALLEYS IN THE FAR EAST
REMAINING IN THE UPPER TEENS...WHILE LOW TO MID 20S ARE COMMON IN THE
BROADER VALLEYS. RIDGETOPS ARE IN THE 30S THANKS TO LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS. A DECENT 850 MB JET HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION BREAKING OUT ACROSS MOST OF
INDIANA AND DOWN INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY. THE LATEST HRRR MAY SUPPORT A
FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE I-64 CORRIDOR TOWARDS DAWN...HOWEVER GIVEN
THE DRY AIR IN PLACE CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION LOOK LOW.

ONCE THE SPRINKLES SKIRT BY TO THE NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING...DRY
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THANKS TO LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW. HIGHS TODAY WILL APPROACH THE 60 DEGREE MARK IN
PLACES...TEMPERATURES THAT WE HAVE NOT SEEN IN ABOUT A WEEK AND A
HALF. MEANWHILE...NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL TRAVERSE THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER...WHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM VORT CONTINUES TO
SLIDE EAST. THE VORT WILL THEN SWING MORE NORTHEAST...REACHING THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING ACROSS THE PLAINS...EVENTUALLY
CONGLOMERATING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL ENJOY A MILDER NIGHT TONIGHT...AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE
WEST. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 30S IN THE MORE SHELTERED
VALLEYS IN THE EAST...WHILE OTHER LOCATIONS WILL SEE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S. A WARM FRONT/MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY
BREAKING OUT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE CONTINUED
TO DOWNPLAY THE QPF AMOUNTS IN THE FAR EAST WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN
PLACE. DESPITE THE SHOWERS MOVING IN...HIGHS WILL MAKE IT BACK INTO
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAST THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO THE
NORTH SUNDAY EVENING. GFS IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE ON BRINGING THE
DRY SLOT IN QUICKLY SUNDAY EVENING...WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS IT BACK
EARLY ON. BASIC THINKING IS THAT EVEN IF THE DRY SLOT MOVES IN
FASTER...WE MAY STILL GET DEVELOPMENT INTO THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH
THE NIGHT OR POSSIBLY EVEN SOME MEASURABLE DRIZZLE. THUS...WILL
MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT...WITH DRIZZLE BECOMING MORE LIKELY AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

ON MONDAY...A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO AND CROSS THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD AGAIN BRING HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AS IT CROSSES THE
AREA THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A TUMBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. AFTER CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 60S...TEMPERATURES BY THE EVENING
SHOULD SETTLE BACK INTO THE 40S. STILL LOOKS LIKE A WINDY DAY...WITH
925MB WINDS TOPPING 35 KNOTS AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY ACTUALLY HELP TO MIX DOWN SOME ISOLATED HIGHER
GUSTS TO 40 OR 45 MPH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY MONDAY
NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO A
POSSIBLE NOREASTER AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE EASTERN
US COAST. 00Z ECMWF HAS SHIFTED THE TRACK OF THIS LOW BACK TO THE
WEST...BRINGING MOISTURE INTO THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. GOING TO
MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST...BUT IF THIS SYSTEM TRENDS ANY FARTHER
WEST...MAY NEED TO INSERT SOME POPS BY WEDNESDAY.

MODELS REALLY DIVERGE THEREAFTER AS WE HEAD INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.
GFS BUILDS A RIDGE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...SUGGESTING
TEMPERATURES MAY REACH INTO THE 50S...WHILE THE ECMWF DIGS OUT
ANOTHER SHARP TROUGH AND WOULD PUT TEMPERATURES MORE INTO THE 30S
WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOW. CLEARLY THIS IS A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN
THE MODELS...AND PUTS LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE THANKSGIVING
FORECAST AND BEYOND. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISED
FORECAST...WITH A SLIGHT EDGE TOWARDS THE COLDER ECMWF AS IT HAS
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT ON THE COLDER SOLUTION. WILL ALSO MAINTAIN LOW
POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AND GO WITH A MIXTURE OF
RAIN/SNOW THROUGH THIS PERIOD. IT DOES LOOK REGARDLESS OF
THANKSGIVING DAY...MODELS POINT TO A MUCH COLDER END TO THE
WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING WELL BELOW NORMAL INTO FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WE SHOULD SEE DRIER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 105 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

BESIDES SOME PASSING CLOUD COVER FROM TIME TO TIME...MAINLY AT OR ABOVE
10K FEET AGL...VFR CONDITIONS WILL REIGN THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...REMAINING AT OR AROUND 5
KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN








000
FXUS63 KJKL 220837
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
337 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH LOW PRESSURE CRUISING THROUGH ONTARIO.
ALOFT...FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW IS IN PLACE...WITH A WEAKER SHORT
WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A STRONGER VORT IS ROTATING
ALONG NORTHERN MEXICO...WHILE ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS MOVING
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT HAS BEEN ON TAP FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...ALTHOUGH
NOT AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT. THERE ARE A FEW VALLEYS IN THE FAR EAST
REMAINING IN THE UPPER TEENS...WHILE LOW TO MID 20S ARE COMMON IN THE
BROADER VALLEYS. RIDGETOPS ARE IN THE 30S THANKS TO LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS. A DECENT 850 MB JET HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION BREAKING OUT ACROSS MOST OF
INDIANA AND DOWN INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY. THE LATEST HRRR MAY SUPPORT A
FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE I-64 CORRIDOR TOWARDS DAWN...HOWEVER GIVEN
THE DRY AIR IN PLACE CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION LOOK LOW.

ONCE THE SPRINKLES SKIRT BY TO THE NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING...DRY
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THANKS TO LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW. HIGHS TODAY WILL APPROACH THE 60 DEGREE MARK IN
PLACES...TEMPERATURES THAT WE HAVE NOT SEEN IN ABOUT A WEEK AND A
HALF. MEANWHILE...NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL TRAVERSE THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER...WHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM VORT CONTINUES TO
SLIDE EAST. THE VORT WILL THEN SWING MORE NORTHEAST...REACHING THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING ACROSS THE PLAINS...EVENTUALLY
CONGLOMERATING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL ENJOY A MILDER NIGHT TONIGHT...AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE
WEST. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 30S IN THE MORE SHELTERED
VALLEYS IN THE EAST...WHILE OTHER LOCATIONS WILL SEE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S. A WARM FRONT/MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY
BREAKING OUT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE CONTINUED
TO DOWNPLAY THE QPF AMOUNTS IN THE FAR EAST WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN
PLACE. DESPITE THE SHOWERS MOVING IN...HIGHS WILL MAKE IT BACK INTO
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAST THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO THE
NORTH SUNDAY EVENING. GFS IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE ON BRINGING THE
DRY SLOT IN QUICKLY SUNDAY EVENING...WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS IT BACK
EARLY ON. BASIC THINKING IS THAT EVEN IF THE DRY SLOT MOVES IN
FASTER...WE MAY STILL GET DEVELOPMENT INTO THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH
THE NIGHT OR POSSIBLY EVEN SOME MEASURABLE DRIZZLE. THUS...WILL
MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT...WITH DRIZZLE BECOMING MORE LIKELY AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

ON MONDAY...A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO AND CROSS THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD AGAIN BRING HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AS IT CROSSES THE
AREA THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A TUMBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. AFTER CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 60S...TEMPERATURES BY THE EVENING
SHOULD SETTLE BACK INTO THE 40S. STILL LOOKS LIKE A WINDY DAY...WITH
925MB WINDS TOPPING 35 KNOTS AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY ACTUALLY HELP TO MIX DOWN SOME ISOLATED HIGHER
GUSTS TO 40 OR 45 MPH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY MONDAY
NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO A
POSSIBLE NOREASTER AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE EASTERN
US COAST. 00Z ECMWF HAS SHIFTED THE TRACK OF THIS LOW BACK TO THE
WEST...BRINGING MOISTURE INTO THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. GOING TO
MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST...BUT IF THIS SYSTEM TRENDS ANY FARTHER
WEST...MAY NEED TO INSERT SOME POPS BY WEDNESDAY.

MODELS REALLY DIVERGE THEREAFTER AS WE HEAD INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.
GFS BUILDS A RIDGE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...SUGGESTING
TEMPERATURES MAY REACH INTO THE 50S...WHILE THE ECMWF DIGS OUT
ANOTHER SHARP TROUGH AND WOULD PUT TEMPERATURES MORE INTO THE 30S
WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOW. CLEARLY THIS IS A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN
THE MODELS...AND PUTS LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE THANKSGIVING
FORECAST AND BEYOND. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISED
FORECAST...WITH A SLIGHT EDGE TOWARDS THE COLDER ECMWF AS IT HAS
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT ON THE COLDER SOLUTION. WILL ALSO MAINTAIN LOW
POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AND GO WITH A MIXTURE OF
RAIN/SNOW THROUGH THIS PERIOD. IT DOES LOOK REGARDLESS OF
THANKSGIVING DAY...MODELS POINT TO A MUCH COLDER END TO THE
WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING WELL BELOW NORMAL INTO FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WE SHOULD SEE DRIER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 105 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

BESIDES SOME PASSING CLOUD COVER FROM TIME TO TIME...MAINLY AT OR ABOVE
10K FEET AGL...VFR CONDITIONS WILL REIGN THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...REMAINING AT OR AROUND 5
KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN







000
FXUS63 KJKL 220605 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
105 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 105 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A FEW OF NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS HAVE SLIPPED INTO THE UPPER
TEENS...WHILE RIDGES ARE IN THE LOWER 30S...AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
BATTLES RADIATIONAL COOLING. CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE FROM
THE WEST...SO THINK THAT THE CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY A DEGREE
OR SO AWAY FROM THE LOWS AT THIS POINT...BEFORE STEADYING OFF OR EVEN
RISING TOWARDS DAWN. HAVE ADJUSTED THE REST OF THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS NON-DIURNAL TREND FOR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1031 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

AFTER WATCHING TRENDS IN HOURLY TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
THE PAST FEW HOURS...IT APPEARS THAT THE CURRENT FORECAST WILL
SUFFICE AS IS. IN A NUTSHELL...THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE CURVE HAS
BECOME QUITE COMPLEX WITH SOME STATIONS ALONG THE VIRGINIA ACTUALLY
WARMING SLIGHTLY AS WEAK SOUTHEAST FLOW DESCENDS DOWN THE MOUNTAINS.
OTHER LOCATIONS HAVE COOLED OFF A LOT MORE QUICKLY THAN THE ORIGINAL
FORECAST HAS BEEN DEPICTING SO FAR...BUT SOME OF THOSE OBS POINTS
WILL LIKELY START WARMING LATER TONIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BECOMES
STRONGER. LASTLY...A NUMBER OF OUR VALLEYS...PARTICULARLY IN THE
NORTHEAST...HAVE ALREADY DECOUPLED...SETTING THINGS UP FOR A WELL
DEFINED RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT. BASED ON ALL THAT...WILL LET THE CURRENT
FORECAST RIDE AS IS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 733 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

JUST ISSUED A NEW SET OF ZONES FEATURING CHANGES MADE TO THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR NEXT THURSDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
TIME PERIOD. THE TEMPERATURES WE HAD IN THE FORECAST BEFORE FOR THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WERE AT LEAST 6 TO 7 DEGREES WARMER THAN
SOME OF OUR NEIGHBORS. THE DEW POINTS AND WEATHER GRIDS WERE ALSO
RERAN BASED ON THE NEW TEMPERATURES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ON TRACK SO FAR THIS EVENING...SO NO UPDATE IS
PLANNED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SOME OF OUR FORECAST GRIDS FOR NEXT
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ARE QUITE A BIT OUT OF SYNC WITH SOME OF
OUR NEIGHBORS...SO SOME ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE TO CORRECT THIS
ISSUE LATER IN THE SHIFT...ALONG WITH ANY OTHER NECESSARY UPDATES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSING OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL MOVE TO OUR
EAST TONIGHT...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINNING AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
TURNS TO THE SOUTH. ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
ALSO BRING SOME CLOUDS TO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...
ESPECIALLY IN OUR FAR NW COUNTIES. HOWEVER...MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST
THAT ANY PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN NW OF THE JKL FORECAST AREA. AN
UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE FAR SW CORNER OF THE CONUS TODAY
WILL MOVE TO TX SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE THEN TURNING NE AND PHASING
WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM CATCHING UP WITH IT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
JUST BE STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...AND WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL FLOW FOR OUR
LOCAL AREA. IT STILL APPEARS THAT PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER SATURDAY NIGHT.

THAT BEING SAID...TEMPERATURES COULD BE THE TRICKIEST PART OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. OUR FIRST NIGHT WILL START OUT WITH A TYPICAL
DIURNAL DOWNTURN IN TEMPS...WITH VALLEYS LEADING THE WAY.
HOWEVER...AS LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES DURING THE NIGHT...RIDGES AS
WELL AS OPEN TERRAIN IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
SEE TEMPS LEVEL OFF OR EVEN RISE OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS IN THE FAR NW
TOWARD DAWN WILL ALSO AID IN THIS TREND. MEANWHILE...VALLEYS IN THE
EAST WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN THEIR COLD READINGS OVERNIGHT...OR EVEN
CONTINUE TO FALL VERY SLOWLY. EXACTLY WHERE THE TRANSITION FROM ONE
TEMPERATURE REGIME TO THE OTHER OCCURS WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO
DELINEATE. SKIES BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ON SATURDAY...ALONG
WITH TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUING TO WARM...WILL ALLOW FOR A SUBSTANTIAL
WARM-UP TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL POSE ESSENTIALLY THE SAME CHALLENGES AS TONIGHT...
EXCEPT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME STRONGER...AND CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE NOT ONLY IN THE NW BUT ALSO IN THE SW PART OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED NEAR AND AROUND THE
ARKLATEX REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL
TRACK NE AS IT BEGINS TO PHASE WITH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH LOCATED IN
THE WESTERN US EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN A
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW THAT WILL TRACK NE INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. ATTENDANT WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTH
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. THE 06Z GFS CONTINUES TO MOVE PRECIP IN
SLOWER WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF/06 NAM ARE A BIT FASTER. PREVIOUS FORECAST
HAD A GRADIENT AND LEANED THAT DIRECTION GIVEN THAT IT IS A DECENT
COMPROMISE TO SOME OF THE TIMING DIFFERENCES THAT HAVE BEEN SEEN.
THERE COULD BE A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THIS SYSTEM AS MENTIONED IN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HOWEVER I THINK THIS WOULD BE TRANSLATED MORE
IN THE QPF. THEREFORE PLAN TO PUT HIGHER POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON SINCE RAIN DOES LOOK AT LEAST LIKELY. RAIN WILL DIE
OFF SUNDAY NIGHT AS WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION.
THIS WARM FRONT DOES FINALLY BRING SOME SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY.

MOVING INTO MONDAY EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY. GIVEN DRIER AIR FILTERING IN ALOFT LIGHTER QPF AND POP
AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE SLIGHT TO CHANCE SIDE. GIVEN DECENT MIXING AND
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET ACROSS THE REGION WILL LEAD TO A BREEZY DAY
ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO NUDGE EAST AS WE MOVE INTO
TUESDAY WITH GENERALLY DEEP TROUGH MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
US. MODELS DO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON DISTURBANCE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL STICK CLOSE TO MODEL
CONSENSUS WHICH BRINGS SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THAT REGION. AFTER THIS
ECMWF DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND BRINGS IT NE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY LATE FRIDAY. WHILE
THE GFS HAS A REFLECTION OF THIS MUCH LATER IN THE MODEL RUN. AGAIN
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WILL STICK CLOSE TO BLEND WHICH GIVES MORE IN THE
WAY OF SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS INTO FRIDAY. OVERALL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 105 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

BESIDES SOME PASSING CLOUD COVER FROM TIME TO TIME...MAINLY AT OR ABOVE
10K FEET AGL...VFR CONDITIONS WILL REIGN THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...REMAINING AT OR AROUND 5
KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN







000
FXUS63 KJKL 220331
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1031 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1031 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

AFTER WATCHING TRENDS IN HOURLY TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
THE PAST FEW HOURS...IT APPEARS THAT THE CURRENT FORECAST WILL
SUFFICE AS IS. IN A NUTSHELL...THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE CURVE HAS
BECOME QUITE COMPLEX WITH SOME STATIONS ALONG THE VIRGINIA ACTUALLY
WARMING SLIGHTLY AS WEAK SOUTHEAST FLOW DESCENDS DOWN THE MOUNTAINS.
OTHER LOCATIONS HAVE COOLED OFF A LOT MORE QUICKLY THAN THE ORIGINAL
FORECAST HAS BEEN DEPICTING SO FAR...BUT SOME OF THOSE OBS POINTS
WILL LIKELY START WARMING LATER TONIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BECOMES
STRONGER. LASTLY...A NUMBER OF OUR VALLEYS...PARTICULARLY IN THE
NORTHEAST...HAVE ALREADY DECOUPLED...SETTING THINGS UP FOR A WELL
DEFINED RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT. BASED ON ALL THAT...WILL LET THE CURRENT
FORECAST RIDE AS IS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 733 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

JUST ISSUED A NEW SET OF ZONES FEATURING CHANGES MADE TO THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR NEXT THURSDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
TIME PERIOD. THE TEMPERATURES WE HAD IN THE FORECAST BEFORE FOR THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WERE AT LEAST 6 TO 7 DEGREES WARMER THAN
SOME OF OUR NEIGHBORS. THE DEW POINTS AND WEATHER GRIDS WERE ALSO
RERAN BASED ON THE NEW TEMPERATURES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ON TRACK SO FAR THIS EVENING...SO NO UPDATE IS
PLANNED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SOME OF OUR FORECAST GRIDS FOR NEXT
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ARE QUITE A BIT OUT OF SYNC WITH SOME OF
OUR NEIGHBORS...SO SOME ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE TO CORRECT THIS
ISSUE LATER IN THE SHIFT...ALONG WITH ANY OTHER NECESSARY UPDATES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSING OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL MOVE TO OUR
EAST TONIGHT...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINNING AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
TURNS TO THE SOUTH. ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
ALSO BRING SOME CLOUDS TO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...
ESPECIALLY IN OUR FAR NW COUNTIES. HOWEVER...MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST
THAT ANY PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN NW OF THE JKL FORECAST AREA. AN
UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE FAR SW CORNER OF THE CONUS TODAY
WILL MOVE TO TX SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE THEN TURNING NE AND PHASING
WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM CATCHING UP WITH IT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
JUST BE STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...AND WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL FLOW FOR OUR
LOCAL AREA. IT STILL APPEARS THAT PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER SATURDAY NIGHT.

THAT BEING SAID...TEMPERATURES COULD BE THE TRICKIEST PART OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. OUR FIRST NIGHT WILL START OUT WITH A TYPICAL
DIURNAL DOWNTURN IN TEMPS...WITH VALLEYS LEADING THE WAY.
HOWEVER...AS LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES DURING THE NIGHT...RIDGES AS
WELL AS OPEN TERRAIN IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
SEE TEMPS LEVEL OFF OR EVEN RISE OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS IN THE FAR NW
TOWARD DAWN WILL ALSO AID IN THIS TREND. MEANWHILE...VALLEYS IN THE
EAST WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN THEIR COLD READINGS OVERNIGHT...OR EVEN
CONTINUE TO FALL VERY SLOWLY. EXACTLY WHERE THE TRANSITION FROM ONE
TEMPERATURE REGIME TO THE OTHER OCCURS WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO
DELINEATE. SKIES BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ON SATURDAY...ALONG
WITH TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUING TO WARM...WILL ALLOW FOR A SUBSTANTIAL
WARM-UP TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL POSE ESSENTIALLY THE SAME CHALLENGES AS TONIGHT...
EXCEPT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME STRONGER...AND CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE NOT ONLY IN THE NW BUT ALSO IN THE SW PART OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED NEAR AND AROUND THE
ARKLATEX REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL
TRACK NE AS IT BEGINS TO PHASE WITH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH LOCATED IN
THE WESTERN US EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN A
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW THAT WILL TRACK NE INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. ATTENDANT WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTH
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. THE 06Z GFS CONTINUES TO MOVE PRECIP IN
SLOWER WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF/06 NAM ARE A BIT FASTER. PREVIOUS FORECAST
HAD A GRADIENT AND LEANED THAT DIRECTION GIVEN THAT IT IS A DECENT
COMPROMISE TO SOME OF THE TIMING DIFFERENCES THAT HAVE BEEN SEEN.
THERE COULD BE A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THIS SYSTEM AS MENTIONED IN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HOWEVER I THINK THIS WOULD BE TRANSLATED MORE
IN THE QPF. THEREFORE PLAN TO PUT HIGHER POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON SINCE RAIN DOES LOOK AT LEAST LIKELY. RAIN WILL DIE
OFF SUNDAY NIGHT AS WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION.
THIS WARM FRONT DOES FINALLY BRING SOME SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY.

MOVING INTO MONDAY EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY. GIVEN DRIER AIR FILTERING IN ALOFT LIGHTER QPF AND POP
AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE SLIGHT TO CHANCE SIDE. GIVEN DECENT MIXING AND
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET ACROSS THE REGION WILL LEAD TO A BREEZY DAY
ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO NUDGE EAST AS WE MOVE INTO
TUESDAY WITH GENERALLY DEEP TROUGH MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
US. MODELS DO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON DISTURBANCE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL STICK CLOSE TO MODEL
CONSENSUS WHICH BRINGS SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THAT REGION. AFTER THIS
ECMWF DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND BRINGS IT NE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY LATE FRIDAY. WHILE
THE GFS HAS A REFLECTION OF THIS MUCH LATER IN THE MODEL RUN. AGAIN
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WILL STICK CLOSE TO BLEND WHICH GIVES MORE IN THE
WAY OF SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS INTO FRIDAY. OVERALL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WE WILL SEE FLUCUATIONS IN CLOUD COVER FROM TIME TO TIME AS
A WEAK WARM FRONT PASSES BY ON SATURDAY...BUT NOTHING MORE THAN THAT
IS EXPECTED DURING THE TAF PERIOD AT THIS TIME.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...AR








000
FXUS63 KJKL 220331
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1031 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1031 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

AFTER WATCHING TRENDS IN HOURLY TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
THE PAST FEW HOURS...IT APPEARS THAT THE CURRENT FORECAST WILL
SUFFICE AS IS. IN A NUTSHELL...THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE CURVE HAS
BECOME QUITE COMPLEX WITH SOME STATIONS ALONG THE VIRGINIA ACTUALLY
WARMING SLIGHTLY AS WEAK SOUTHEAST FLOW DESCENDS DOWN THE MOUNTAINS.
OTHER LOCATIONS HAVE COOLED OFF A LOT MORE QUICKLY THAN THE ORIGINAL
FORECAST HAS BEEN DEPICTING SO FAR...BUT SOME OF THOSE OBS POINTS
WILL LIKELY START WARMING LATER TONIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BECOMES
STRONGER. LASTLY...A NUMBER OF OUR VALLEYS...PARTICULARLY IN THE
NORTHEAST...HAVE ALREADY DECOUPLED...SETTING THINGS UP FOR A WELL
DEFINED RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT. BASED ON ALL THAT...WILL LET THE CURRENT
FORECAST RIDE AS IS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 733 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

JUST ISSUED A NEW SET OF ZONES FEATURING CHANGES MADE TO THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR NEXT THURSDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
TIME PERIOD. THE TEMPERATURES WE HAD IN THE FORECAST BEFORE FOR THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WERE AT LEAST 6 TO 7 DEGREES WARMER THAN
SOME OF OUR NEIGHBORS. THE DEW POINTS AND WEATHER GRIDS WERE ALSO
RERAN BASED ON THE NEW TEMPERATURES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ON TRACK SO FAR THIS EVENING...SO NO UPDATE IS
PLANNED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SOME OF OUR FORECAST GRIDS FOR NEXT
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ARE QUITE A BIT OUT OF SYNC WITH SOME OF
OUR NEIGHBORS...SO SOME ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE TO CORRECT THIS
ISSUE LATER IN THE SHIFT...ALONG WITH ANY OTHER NECESSARY UPDATES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSING OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL MOVE TO OUR
EAST TONIGHT...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINNING AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
TURNS TO THE SOUTH. ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
ALSO BRING SOME CLOUDS TO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...
ESPECIALLY IN OUR FAR NW COUNTIES. HOWEVER...MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST
THAT ANY PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN NW OF THE JKL FORECAST AREA. AN
UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE FAR SW CORNER OF THE CONUS TODAY
WILL MOVE TO TX SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE THEN TURNING NE AND PHASING
WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM CATCHING UP WITH IT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
JUST BE STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...AND WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL FLOW FOR OUR
LOCAL AREA. IT STILL APPEARS THAT PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER SATURDAY NIGHT.

THAT BEING SAID...TEMPERATURES COULD BE THE TRICKIEST PART OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. OUR FIRST NIGHT WILL START OUT WITH A TYPICAL
DIURNAL DOWNTURN IN TEMPS...WITH VALLEYS LEADING THE WAY.
HOWEVER...AS LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES DURING THE NIGHT...RIDGES AS
WELL AS OPEN TERRAIN IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
SEE TEMPS LEVEL OFF OR EVEN RISE OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS IN THE FAR NW
TOWARD DAWN WILL ALSO AID IN THIS TREND. MEANWHILE...VALLEYS IN THE
EAST WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN THEIR COLD READINGS OVERNIGHT...OR EVEN
CONTINUE TO FALL VERY SLOWLY. EXACTLY WHERE THE TRANSITION FROM ONE
TEMPERATURE REGIME TO THE OTHER OCCURS WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO
DELINEATE. SKIES BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ON SATURDAY...ALONG
WITH TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUING TO WARM...WILL ALLOW FOR A SUBSTANTIAL
WARM-UP TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL POSE ESSENTIALLY THE SAME CHALLENGES AS TONIGHT...
EXCEPT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME STRONGER...AND CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE NOT ONLY IN THE NW BUT ALSO IN THE SW PART OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED NEAR AND AROUND THE
ARKLATEX REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL
TRACK NE AS IT BEGINS TO PHASE WITH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH LOCATED IN
THE WESTERN US EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN A
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW THAT WILL TRACK NE INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. ATTENDANT WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTH
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. THE 06Z GFS CONTINUES TO MOVE PRECIP IN
SLOWER WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF/06 NAM ARE A BIT FASTER. PREVIOUS FORECAST
HAD A GRADIENT AND LEANED THAT DIRECTION GIVEN THAT IT IS A DECENT
COMPROMISE TO SOME OF THE TIMING DIFFERENCES THAT HAVE BEEN SEEN.
THERE COULD BE A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THIS SYSTEM AS MENTIONED IN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HOWEVER I THINK THIS WOULD BE TRANSLATED MORE
IN THE QPF. THEREFORE PLAN TO PUT HIGHER POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON SINCE RAIN DOES LOOK AT LEAST LIKELY. RAIN WILL DIE
OFF SUNDAY NIGHT AS WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION.
THIS WARM FRONT DOES FINALLY BRING SOME SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY.

MOVING INTO MONDAY EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY. GIVEN DRIER AIR FILTERING IN ALOFT LIGHTER QPF AND POP
AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE SLIGHT TO CHANCE SIDE. GIVEN DECENT MIXING AND
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET ACROSS THE REGION WILL LEAD TO A BREEZY DAY
ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO NUDGE EAST AS WE MOVE INTO
TUESDAY WITH GENERALLY DEEP TROUGH MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
US. MODELS DO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON DISTURBANCE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL STICK CLOSE TO MODEL
CONSENSUS WHICH BRINGS SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THAT REGION. AFTER THIS
ECMWF DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND BRINGS IT NE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY LATE FRIDAY. WHILE
THE GFS HAS A REFLECTION OF THIS MUCH LATER IN THE MODEL RUN. AGAIN
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WILL STICK CLOSE TO BLEND WHICH GIVES MORE IN THE
WAY OF SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS INTO FRIDAY. OVERALL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WE WILL SEE FLUCUATIONS IN CLOUD COVER FROM TIME TO TIME AS
A WEAK WARM FRONT PASSES BY ON SATURDAY...BUT NOTHING MORE THAN THAT
IS EXPECTED DURING THE TAF PERIOD AT THIS TIME.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...AR







000
FXUS63 KJKL 220034
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
734 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 733 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

JUST ISSUED A NEW SET OF ZONES FEATURING CHANGES MADE TO THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR NEXT THURSDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
TIME PERIOD. THE TEMPERATURES WE HAD IN THE FORECAST BEFORE FOR THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WERE AT LEAST 6 TO 7 DEGREES WARMER THAN
SOME OF OUR NEIGHBORS. THE DEW POINTS AND WEATHER GRIDS WERE ALSO
RERAN BASED ON THE NEW TEMPERATURES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ON TRACK SO FAR THIS EVENING...SO NO UPDATE IS
PLANNED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SOME OF OUR FORECAST GRIDS FOR NEXT
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ARE QUITE A BIT OUT OF SYNC WITH SOME OF
OUR NEIGHBORS...SO SOME ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE TO CORRECT THIS
ISSUE LATER IN THE SHIFT...ALONG WITH ANY OTHER NECESSARY UPDATES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSING OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL MOVE TO OUR
EAST TONIGHT...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINNING AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
TURNS TO THE SOUTH. ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
ALSO BRING SOME CLOUDS TO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...
ESPECIALLY IN OUR FAR NW COUNTIES. HOWEVER...MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST
THAT ANY PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN NW OF THE JKL FORECAST AREA. AN
UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE FAR SW CORNER OF THE CONUS TODAY
WILL MOVE TO TX SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE THEN TURNING NE AND PHASING
WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM CATCHING UP WITH IT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
JUST BE STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...AND WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL FLOW FOR OUR
LOCAL AREA. IT STILL APPEARS THAT PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER SATURDAY NIGHT.

THAT BEING SAID...TEMPERATURES COULD BE THE TRICKIEST PART OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. OUR FIRST NIGHT WILL START OUT WITH A TYPICAL
DIURNAL DOWNTURN IN TEMPS...WITH VALLEYS LEADING THE WAY.
HOWEVER...AS LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES DURING THE NIGHT...RIDGES AS
WELL AS OPEN TERRAIN IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
SEE TEMPS LEVEL OFF OR EVEN RISE OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS IN THE FAR NW
TOWARD DAWN WILL ALSO AID IN THIS TREND. MEANWHILE...VALLEYS IN THE
EAST WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN THEIR COLD READINGS OVERNIGHT...OR EVEN
CONTINUE TO FALL VERY SLOWLY. EXACTLY WHERE THE TRANSITION FROM ONE
TEMPERATURE REGIME TO THE OTHER OCCURS WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO
DELINEATE. SKIES BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ON SATURDAY...ALONG
WITH TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUING TO WARM...WILL ALLOW FOR A SUBSTANTIAL
WARM-UP TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL POSE ESSENTIALLY THE SAME CHALLENGES AS TONIGHT...
EXCEPT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME STRONGER...AND CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE NOT ONLY IN THE NW BUT ALSO IN THE SW PART OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED NEAR AND AROUND THE
ARKLATEX REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL
TRACK NE AS IT BEGINS TO PHASE WITH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH LOCATED IN
THE WESTERN US EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN A
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW THAT WILL TRACK NE INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. ATTENDANT WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTH
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. THE 06Z GFS CONTINUES TO MOVE PRECIP IN
SLOWER WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF/06 NAM ARE A BIT FASTER. PREVIOUS FORECAST
HAD A GRADIENT AND LEANED THAT DIRECTION GIVEN THAT IT IS A DECENT
COMPROMISE TO SOME OF THE TIMING DIFFERENCES THAT HAVE BEEN SEEN.
THERE COULD BE A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THIS SYSTEM AS MENTIONED IN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HOWEVER I THINK THIS WOULD BE TRANSLATED MORE
IN THE QPF. THEREFORE PLAN TO PUT HIGHER POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON SINCE RAIN DOES LOOK AT LEAST LIKELY. RAIN WILL DIE
OFF SUNDAY NIGHT AS WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION.
THIS WARM FRONT DOES FINALLY BRING SOME SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY.

MOVING INTO MONDAY EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY. GIVEN DRIER AIR FILTERING IN ALOFT LIGHTER QPF AND POP
AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE SLIGHT TO CHANCE SIDE. GIVEN DECENT MIXING AND
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET ACROSS THE REGION WILL LEAD TO A BREEZY DAY
ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO NUDGE EAST AS WE MOVE INTO
TUESDAY WITH GENERALLY DEEP TROUGH MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
US. MODELS DO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON DISTURBANCE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL STICK CLOSE TO MODEL
CONSENSUS WHICH BRINGS SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THAT REGION. AFTER THIS
ECMWF DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND BRINGS IT NE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY LATE FRIDAY. WHILE
THE GFS HAS A REFLECTION OF THIS MUCH LATER IN THE MODEL RUN. AGAIN
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WILL STICK CLOSE TO BLEND WHICH GIVES MORE IN THE
WAY OF SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS INTO FRIDAY. OVERALL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WE WILL SEE FLUCUATIONS IN CLOUD COVER FROM TIME TO TIME AS
A WEAK WARM FRONT PASSES BY ON SATURDAY...BUT NOTHING MORE THAN THAT
IS EXPECTED DURING THE TAF PERIOD AT THIS TIME.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...AR








000
FXUS63 KJKL 220034
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
734 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 733 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

JUST ISSUED A NEW SET OF ZONES FEATURING CHANGES MADE TO THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR NEXT THURSDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
TIME PERIOD. THE TEMPERATURES WE HAD IN THE FORECAST BEFORE FOR THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WERE AT LEAST 6 TO 7 DEGREES WARMER THAN
SOME OF OUR NEIGHBORS. THE DEW POINTS AND WEATHER GRIDS WERE ALSO
RERAN BASED ON THE NEW TEMPERATURES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ON TRACK SO FAR THIS EVENING...SO NO UPDATE IS
PLANNED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SOME OF OUR FORECAST GRIDS FOR NEXT
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ARE QUITE A BIT OUT OF SYNC WITH SOME OF
OUR NEIGHBORS...SO SOME ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE TO CORRECT THIS
ISSUE LATER IN THE SHIFT...ALONG WITH ANY OTHER NECESSARY UPDATES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSING OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL MOVE TO OUR
EAST TONIGHT...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINNING AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
TURNS TO THE SOUTH. ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
ALSO BRING SOME CLOUDS TO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...
ESPECIALLY IN OUR FAR NW COUNTIES. HOWEVER...MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST
THAT ANY PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN NW OF THE JKL FORECAST AREA. AN
UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE FAR SW CORNER OF THE CONUS TODAY
WILL MOVE TO TX SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE THEN TURNING NE AND PHASING
WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM CATCHING UP WITH IT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
JUST BE STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...AND WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL FLOW FOR OUR
LOCAL AREA. IT STILL APPEARS THAT PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER SATURDAY NIGHT.

THAT BEING SAID...TEMPERATURES COULD BE THE TRICKIEST PART OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. OUR FIRST NIGHT WILL START OUT WITH A TYPICAL
DIURNAL DOWNTURN IN TEMPS...WITH VALLEYS LEADING THE WAY.
HOWEVER...AS LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES DURING THE NIGHT...RIDGES AS
WELL AS OPEN TERRAIN IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
SEE TEMPS LEVEL OFF OR EVEN RISE OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS IN THE FAR NW
TOWARD DAWN WILL ALSO AID IN THIS TREND. MEANWHILE...VALLEYS IN THE
EAST WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN THEIR COLD READINGS OVERNIGHT...OR EVEN
CONTINUE TO FALL VERY SLOWLY. EXACTLY WHERE THE TRANSITION FROM ONE
TEMPERATURE REGIME TO THE OTHER OCCURS WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO
DELINEATE. SKIES BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ON SATURDAY...ALONG
WITH TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUING TO WARM...WILL ALLOW FOR A SUBSTANTIAL
WARM-UP TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL POSE ESSENTIALLY THE SAME CHALLENGES AS TONIGHT...
EXCEPT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME STRONGER...AND CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE NOT ONLY IN THE NW BUT ALSO IN THE SW PART OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED NEAR AND AROUND THE
ARKLATEX REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL
TRACK NE AS IT BEGINS TO PHASE WITH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH LOCATED IN
THE WESTERN US EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN A
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW THAT WILL TRACK NE INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. ATTENDANT WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTH
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. THE 06Z GFS CONTINUES TO MOVE PRECIP IN
SLOWER WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF/06 NAM ARE A BIT FASTER. PREVIOUS FORECAST
HAD A GRADIENT AND LEANED THAT DIRECTION GIVEN THAT IT IS A DECENT
COMPROMISE TO SOME OF THE TIMING DIFFERENCES THAT HAVE BEEN SEEN.
THERE COULD BE A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THIS SYSTEM AS MENTIONED IN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HOWEVER I THINK THIS WOULD BE TRANSLATED MORE
IN THE QPF. THEREFORE PLAN TO PUT HIGHER POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON SINCE RAIN DOES LOOK AT LEAST LIKELY. RAIN WILL DIE
OFF SUNDAY NIGHT AS WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION.
THIS WARM FRONT DOES FINALLY BRING SOME SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY.

MOVING INTO MONDAY EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY. GIVEN DRIER AIR FILTERING IN ALOFT LIGHTER QPF AND POP
AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE SLIGHT TO CHANCE SIDE. GIVEN DECENT MIXING AND
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET ACROSS THE REGION WILL LEAD TO A BREEZY DAY
ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO NUDGE EAST AS WE MOVE INTO
TUESDAY WITH GENERALLY DEEP TROUGH MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
US. MODELS DO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON DISTURBANCE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL STICK CLOSE TO MODEL
CONSENSUS WHICH BRINGS SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THAT REGION. AFTER THIS
ECMWF DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND BRINGS IT NE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY LATE FRIDAY. WHILE
THE GFS HAS A REFLECTION OF THIS MUCH LATER IN THE MODEL RUN. AGAIN
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WILL STICK CLOSE TO BLEND WHICH GIVES MORE IN THE
WAY OF SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS INTO FRIDAY. OVERALL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WE WILL SEE FLUCUATIONS IN CLOUD COVER FROM TIME TO TIME AS
A WEAK WARM FRONT PASSES BY ON SATURDAY...BUT NOTHING MORE THAN THAT
IS EXPECTED DURING THE TAF PERIOD AT THIS TIME.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...AR







000
FXUS63 KJKL 212336
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
636 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ON TRACK SO FAR THIS EVENING...SO NO UPDATE IS
PLANNED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SOME OF OUR FORECAST GRIDS FOR NEXT
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ARE QUITE A BIT OUT OF SYNC WITH SOME OF
OUR NEIGHBORS...SO SOME ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE TO CORRECT THIS
ISSUE LATER IN THE SHIFT...ALONG WITH ANY OTHER NECESSARY UPDATES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSING OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL MOVE TO OUR
EAST TONIGHT...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINNING AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
TURNS TO THE SOUTH. ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
ALSO BRING SOME CLOUDS TO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...
ESPECIALLY IN OUR FAR NW COUNTIES. HOWEVER...MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST
THAT ANY PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN NW OF THE JKL FORECAST AREA. AN
UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE FAR SW CORNER OF THE CONUS TODAY
WILL MOVE TO TX SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE THEN TURNING NE AND PHASING
WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM CATCHING UP WITH IT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
JUST BE STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...AND WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL FLOW FOR OUR
LOCAL AREA. IT STILL APPEARS THAT PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER SATURDAY NIGHT.

THAT BEING SAID...TEMPERATURES COULD BE THE TRICKIEST PART OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. OUR FIRST NIGHT WILL START OUT WITH A TYPICAL
DIURNAL DOWNTURN IN TEMPS...WITH VALLEYS LEADING THE WAY.
HOWEVER...AS LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES DURING THE NIGHT...RIDGES AS
WELL AS OPEN TERRAIN IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
SEE TEMPS LEVEL OFF OR EVEN RISE OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS IN THE FAR NW
TOWARD DAWN WILL ALSO AID IN THIS TREND. MEANWHILE...VALLEYS IN THE
EAST WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN THEIR COLD READINGS OVERNIGHT...OR EVEN
CONTINUE TO FALL VERY SLOWLY. EXACTLY WHERE THE TRANSITION FROM ONE
TEMPERATURE REGIME TO THE OTHER OCCURS WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO
DELINEATE. SKIES BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ON SATURDAY...ALONG
WITH TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUING TO WARM...WILL ALLOW FOR A SUBSTANTIAL
WARM-UP TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL POSE ESSENTIALLY THE SAME CHALLENGES AS TONIGHT...
EXCEPT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME STRONGER...AND CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE NOT ONLY IN THE NW BUT ALSO IN THE SW PART OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED NEAR AND AROUND THE
ARKLATEX REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL
TRACK NE AS IT BEGINS TO PHASE WITH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH LOCATED IN
THE WESTERN US EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN A
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW THAT WILL TRACK NE INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. ATTENDANT WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTH
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. THE 06Z GFS CONTINUES TO MOVE PRECIP IN
SLOWER WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF/06 NAM ARE A BIT FASTER. PREVIOUS FORECAST
HAD A GRADIENT AND LEANED THAT DIRECTION GIVEN THAT IT IS A DECENT
COMPROMISE TO SOME OF THE TIMING DIFFERENCES THAT HAVE BEEN SEEN.
THERE COULD BE A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THIS SYSTEM AS MENTIONED IN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HOWEVER I THINK THIS WOULD BE TRANSLATED MORE
IN THE QPF. THEREFORE PLAN TO PUT HIGHER POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON SINCE RAIN DOES LOOK AT LEAST LIKELY. RAIN WILL DIE
OFF SUNDAY NIGHT AS WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION.
THIS WARM FRONT DOES FINALLY BRING SOME SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY.

MOVING INTO MONDAY EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY. GIVEN DRIER AIR FILTERING IN ALOFT LIGHTER QPF AND POP
AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE SLIGHT TO CHANCE SIDE. GIVEN DECENT MIXING AND
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET ACROSS THE REGION WILL LEAD TO A BREEZY DAY
ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO NUDGE EAST AS WE MOVE INTO
TUESDAY WITH GENERALLY DEEP TROUGH MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
US. MODELS DO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON DISTURBANCE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL STICK CLOSE TO MODEL
CONSENSUS WHICH BRINGS SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THAT REGION. AFTER THIS
ECMWF DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND BRINGS IT NE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY LATE FRIDAY. WHILE
THE GFS HAS A REFLECTION OF THIS MUCH LATER IN THE MODEL RUN. AGAIN
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WILL STICK CLOSE TO BLEND WHICH GIVES MORE IN THE
WAY OF SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS INTO FRIDAY. OVERALL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WE WILL SEE FLUCUATIONS IN CLOUD COVER FROM TIME TO TIME AS
A WEAK WARM FRONT PASSES BY ON SATURDAY...BUT NOTHING MORE THAN THAT
IS EXPECTED DURING THE TAF PERIOD AT THIS TIME.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...AR








000
FXUS63 KJKL 212336
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
636 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ON TRACK SO FAR THIS EVENING...SO NO UPDATE IS
PLANNED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SOME OF OUR FORECAST GRIDS FOR NEXT
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ARE QUITE A BIT OUT OF SYNC WITH SOME OF
OUR NEIGHBORS...SO SOME ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE TO CORRECT THIS
ISSUE LATER IN THE SHIFT...ALONG WITH ANY OTHER NECESSARY UPDATES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSING OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL MOVE TO OUR
EAST TONIGHT...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINNING AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
TURNS TO THE SOUTH. ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
ALSO BRING SOME CLOUDS TO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...
ESPECIALLY IN OUR FAR NW COUNTIES. HOWEVER...MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST
THAT ANY PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN NW OF THE JKL FORECAST AREA. AN
UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE FAR SW CORNER OF THE CONUS TODAY
WILL MOVE TO TX SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE THEN TURNING NE AND PHASING
WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM CATCHING UP WITH IT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
JUST BE STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...AND WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL FLOW FOR OUR
LOCAL AREA. IT STILL APPEARS THAT PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER SATURDAY NIGHT.

THAT BEING SAID...TEMPERATURES COULD BE THE TRICKIEST PART OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. OUR FIRST NIGHT WILL START OUT WITH A TYPICAL
DIURNAL DOWNTURN IN TEMPS...WITH VALLEYS LEADING THE WAY.
HOWEVER...AS LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES DURING THE NIGHT...RIDGES AS
WELL AS OPEN TERRAIN IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
SEE TEMPS LEVEL OFF OR EVEN RISE OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS IN THE FAR NW
TOWARD DAWN WILL ALSO AID IN THIS TREND. MEANWHILE...VALLEYS IN THE
EAST WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN THEIR COLD READINGS OVERNIGHT...OR EVEN
CONTINUE TO FALL VERY SLOWLY. EXACTLY WHERE THE TRANSITION FROM ONE
TEMPERATURE REGIME TO THE OTHER OCCURS WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO
DELINEATE. SKIES BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ON SATURDAY...ALONG
WITH TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUING TO WARM...WILL ALLOW FOR A SUBSTANTIAL
WARM-UP TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL POSE ESSENTIALLY THE SAME CHALLENGES AS TONIGHT...
EXCEPT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME STRONGER...AND CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE NOT ONLY IN THE NW BUT ALSO IN THE SW PART OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED NEAR AND AROUND THE
ARKLATEX REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL
TRACK NE AS IT BEGINS TO PHASE WITH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH LOCATED IN
THE WESTERN US EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN A
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW THAT WILL TRACK NE INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. ATTENDANT WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTH
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. THE 06Z GFS CONTINUES TO MOVE PRECIP IN
SLOWER WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF/06 NAM ARE A BIT FASTER. PREVIOUS FORECAST
HAD A GRADIENT AND LEANED THAT DIRECTION GIVEN THAT IT IS A DECENT
COMPROMISE TO SOME OF THE TIMING DIFFERENCES THAT HAVE BEEN SEEN.
THERE COULD BE A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THIS SYSTEM AS MENTIONED IN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HOWEVER I THINK THIS WOULD BE TRANSLATED MORE
IN THE QPF. THEREFORE PLAN TO PUT HIGHER POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON SINCE RAIN DOES LOOK AT LEAST LIKELY. RAIN WILL DIE
OFF SUNDAY NIGHT AS WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION.
THIS WARM FRONT DOES FINALLY BRING SOME SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY.

MOVING INTO MONDAY EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY. GIVEN DRIER AIR FILTERING IN ALOFT LIGHTER QPF AND POP
AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE SLIGHT TO CHANCE SIDE. GIVEN DECENT MIXING AND
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET ACROSS THE REGION WILL LEAD TO A BREEZY DAY
ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO NUDGE EAST AS WE MOVE INTO
TUESDAY WITH GENERALLY DEEP TROUGH MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
US. MODELS DO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON DISTURBANCE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL STICK CLOSE TO MODEL
CONSENSUS WHICH BRINGS SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THAT REGION. AFTER THIS
ECMWF DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND BRINGS IT NE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY LATE FRIDAY. WHILE
THE GFS HAS A REFLECTION OF THIS MUCH LATER IN THE MODEL RUN. AGAIN
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WILL STICK CLOSE TO BLEND WHICH GIVES MORE IN THE
WAY OF SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS INTO FRIDAY. OVERALL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WE WILL SEE FLUCUATIONS IN CLOUD COVER FROM TIME TO TIME AS
A WEAK WARM FRONT PASSES BY ON SATURDAY...BUT NOTHING MORE THAN THAT
IS EXPECTED DURING THE TAF PERIOD AT THIS TIME.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...AR







000
FXUS63 KJKL 212035
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
335 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSING OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL MOVE TO OUR
EAST TONIGHT...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINNING AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
TURNS TO THE SOUTH. ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
ALSO BRING SOME CLOUDS TO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...
ESPECIALLY IN OUR FAR NW COUNTIES. HOWEVER...MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST
THAT ANY PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN NW OF THE JKL FORECAST AREA. AN
UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE FAR SW CORNER OF THE CONUS TODAY
WILL MOVE TO TX SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE THEN TURNING NE AND PHASING
WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM CATCHING UP WITH IT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
JUST BE STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...AND WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL FLOW FOR OUR
LOCAL AREA. IT STILL APPEARS THAT PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER SATURDAY NIGHT.

THAT BEING SAID...TEMPERATURES COULD BE THE TRICKIEST PART OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. OUR FIRST NIGHT WILL START OUT WITH A TYPICAL
DIURNAL DOWNTURN IN TEMPS...WITH VALLEYS LEADING THE WAY.
HOWEVER...AS LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES DURING THE NIGHT...RIDGES AS
WELL AS OPEN TERRAIN IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
SEE TEMPS LEVEL OFF OR EVEN RISE OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS IN THE FAR NW
TOWARD DAWN WILL ALSO AID IN THIS TREND. MEANWHILE...VALLEYS IN THE
EAST WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN THEIR COLD READINGS OVERNIGHT...OR EVEN
CONTINUE TO FALL VERY SLOWLY. EXACTLY WHERE THE TRANSITION FROM ONE
TEMPERATURE REGIME TO THE OTHER OCCURS WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO
DELINEATE. SKIES BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ON SATURDAY...ALONG
WITH TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUING TO WARM...WILL ALLOW FOR A SUBSTANTIAL
WARM-UP TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL POSE ESSENTIALLY THE SAME CHALLENGES AS TONIGHT...
EXCEPT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME STRONGER...AND CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE NOT ONLY IN THE NW BUT ALSO IN THE SW PART OF THE AREA.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED NEAR AND AROUND THE
ARKLATEX REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL
TRACK NE AS IT BEGINS TO PHASE WITH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH LOCATED IN
THE WESTERN US EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN A
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW THAT WILL TRACK NE INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. ATTENDANT WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTH
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. THE 06Z GFS CONTINUES TO MOVE PRECIP IN
SLOWER WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF/06 NAM ARE A BIT FASTER. PREVIOUS FORECAST
HAD A GRADIENT AND LEANED THAT DIRECTION GIVEN THAT IT IS A DECENT
COMPROMISE TO SOME OF THE TIMING DIFFERENCES THAT HAVE BEEN SEEN.
THERE COULD BE A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THIS SYSTEM AS MENTIONED IN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HOWEVER I THINK THIS WOULD BE TRANSLATED MORE
IN THE QPF. THEREFORE PLAN TO PUT HIGHER POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON SINCE RAIN DOES LOOK AT LEAST LIKELY. RAIN WILL DIE
OFF SUNDAY NIGHT AS WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION.
THIS WARM FRONT DOES FINALLY BRING SOME SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY.

MOVING INTO MONDAY EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY. GIVEN DRIER AIR FILTERING IN ALOFT LIGHTER QPF AND POP
AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE SLIGHT TO CHANCE SIDE. GIVEN DECENT MIXING AND
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET ACROSS THE REGION WILL LEAD TO A BREEZY DAY
ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO NUDGE EAST AS WE MOVE INTO
TUESDAY WITH GENERALLY DEEP TROUGH MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
US. MODELS DO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON DISTURBANCE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL STICK CLOSE TO MODEL
CONSENSUS WHICH BRINGS SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THAT REGION. AFTER THIS
ECMWF DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND BRINGS IT NE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY LATE FRIDAY. WHILE
THE GFS HAS A REFLECTION OF THIS MUCH LATER IN THE MODEL RUN. AGAIN
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WILL STICK CLOSE TO BLEND WHICH GIVES MORE IN THE
WAY OF SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS INTO FRIDAY. OVERALL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR AND WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...HAL









000
FXUS63 KJKL 212035
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
335 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSING OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL MOVE TO OUR
EAST TONIGHT...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINNING AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
TURNS TO THE SOUTH. ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
ALSO BRING SOME CLOUDS TO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...
ESPECIALLY IN OUR FAR NW COUNTIES. HOWEVER...MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST
THAT ANY PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN NW OF THE JKL FORECAST AREA. AN
UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE FAR SW CORNER OF THE CONUS TODAY
WILL MOVE TO TX SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE THEN TURNING NE AND PHASING
WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM CATCHING UP WITH IT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
JUST BE STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...AND WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL FLOW FOR OUR
LOCAL AREA. IT STILL APPEARS THAT PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER SATURDAY NIGHT.

THAT BEING SAID...TEMPERATURES COULD BE THE TRICKIEST PART OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. OUR FIRST NIGHT WILL START OUT WITH A TYPICAL
DIURNAL DOWNTURN IN TEMPS...WITH VALLEYS LEADING THE WAY.
HOWEVER...AS LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES DURING THE NIGHT...RIDGES AS
WELL AS OPEN TERRAIN IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
SEE TEMPS LEVEL OFF OR EVEN RISE OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS IN THE FAR NW
TOWARD DAWN WILL ALSO AID IN THIS TREND. MEANWHILE...VALLEYS IN THE
EAST WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN THEIR COLD READINGS OVERNIGHT...OR EVEN
CONTINUE TO FALL VERY SLOWLY. EXACTLY WHERE THE TRANSITION FROM ONE
TEMPERATURE REGIME TO THE OTHER OCCURS WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO
DELINEATE. SKIES BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ON SATURDAY...ALONG
WITH TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUING TO WARM...WILL ALLOW FOR A SUBSTANTIAL
WARM-UP TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL POSE ESSENTIALLY THE SAME CHALLENGES AS TONIGHT...
EXCEPT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME STRONGER...AND CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE NOT ONLY IN THE NW BUT ALSO IN THE SW PART OF THE AREA.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED NEAR AND AROUND THE
ARKLATEX REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL
TRACK NE AS IT BEGINS TO PHASE WITH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH LOCATED IN
THE WESTERN US EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN A
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW THAT WILL TRACK NE INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. ATTENDANT WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTH
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. THE 06Z GFS CONTINUES TO MOVE PRECIP IN
SLOWER WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF/06 NAM ARE A BIT FASTER. PREVIOUS FORECAST
HAD A GRADIENT AND LEANED THAT DIRECTION GIVEN THAT IT IS A DECENT
COMPROMISE TO SOME OF THE TIMING DIFFERENCES THAT HAVE BEEN SEEN.
THERE COULD BE A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THIS SYSTEM AS MENTIONED IN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HOWEVER I THINK THIS WOULD BE TRANSLATED MORE
IN THE QPF. THEREFORE PLAN TO PUT HIGHER POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON SINCE RAIN DOES LOOK AT LEAST LIKELY. RAIN WILL DIE
OFF SUNDAY NIGHT AS WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION.
THIS WARM FRONT DOES FINALLY BRING SOME SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY.

MOVING INTO MONDAY EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY. GIVEN DRIER AIR FILTERING IN ALOFT LIGHTER QPF AND POP
AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE SLIGHT TO CHANCE SIDE. GIVEN DECENT MIXING AND
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET ACROSS THE REGION WILL LEAD TO A BREEZY DAY
ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO NUDGE EAST AS WE MOVE INTO
TUESDAY WITH GENERALLY DEEP TROUGH MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
US. MODELS DO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON DISTURBANCE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL STICK CLOSE TO MODEL
CONSENSUS WHICH BRINGS SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THAT REGION. AFTER THIS
ECMWF DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND BRINGS IT NE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY LATE FRIDAY. WHILE
THE GFS HAS A REFLECTION OF THIS MUCH LATER IN THE MODEL RUN. AGAIN
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WILL STICK CLOSE TO BLEND WHICH GIVES MORE IN THE
WAY OF SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS INTO FRIDAY. OVERALL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR AND WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...HAL










000
FXUS63 KJKL 211842
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
142 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1156 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

NOTHING BUT BLUE SKIES WITH TEMPS STILL LARGELY ON TRACK. UPDATED ONLY
TO BLEND LATE MORNING OBS INTO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 909 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO ACCOUNT FOR OBS AND LATEST MODEL DATA.
LOWERED CLOUD COVER FORECAST FOR TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS...OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY...WITH THE CENTER CURRENTLY RESIDING ACROSS ILLINOIS. A
WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FOUND ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC...WITH
A LEFTOVER COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM NEW ENGLAND DOWN ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH...BEFORE THE BOUNDARY BECOMES MORE STATIONARY NEAR THE ARKLATEX
REGION. ALOFT...CYCLONIC FLOW IS PULLING AWAY TO THE EAST...WITH MORE
ZONAL FLOW LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS AND THE PLAINS. EASTERN
KENTUCKY REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING FOR A CHILLY NIGHT...WITH SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATIONS CURRENTLY REPORTING IN THE TEENS.

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH
AMPLIFICATION ALOFT TAKING PLACE OUT WEST...AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
SWINGS EAST FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WHILE A MUCH DEEPER WAVE
MOVES IN ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL
ALLOW FOR DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE IN ACROSS THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER NEAR THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL SHOVE THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY
LATE IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING A
MODERATION TO THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS.

TODAY WILL FEATURE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING TO THE
UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH...TO THE MID 40S IN THE SOUTH. A LOW LEVEL JET
WILL RAMP UP ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA...HOWEVER
PRECIP LOOKS TO HAVE A HARD TIME OVERCOMING THE DRY AIR IN
PLACE...AND THE BEST LIFT WILL BE FURTHER OFF TO THE NORTHWEST...SO
HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LOWS WILL BE
TRICKY...AS THE EASTERN VALLEYS WILL LIKELY DECOUPLE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT AND THEN MAY REMAIN NEARLY STEADY AS CLOUDS
INCREASE. BROADER VALLEYS OUT WEST AND THE BLUEGRASS WILL LIKELY SEE
THEIR LOWS IN THE EVENING...AND THEN GRADUALLY WARM TOWARDS
DAWN...AS SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER
INCREASE.

THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A MILD SATURDAY...AS THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES AND ALLOWS FOR HIGHS TO RETURN TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS IN THE MID 50S...UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS
ILLINOIS...AND INTO MICHIGAN BY SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTH...A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. A STRONG MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL PIVOT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY...PROVIDING
LOTS OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...AT THE SAME
TIME...STRONG SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH DOWNSLOPING FLOW ANTICIPATED ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS WILL SET THE BATTLE BETWEEN THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND
FORCING ALOFT. AS IT STANDS NOW...FORCING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
OVERTAKE THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW BY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY THERE...SO HAVE GONE WITH A GRADIENT IN POPS FROM THE
WEST TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. QPF WILL ALSO SEE A GRADIENT
MATCHING THE POPS. IN ADDITION...THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST...ESPECIALLY IF
THE RAIN HOLDS OFF INTO THE AFTERNOON.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...FORCING EXITS TO THE NORTH...LEAVING EASTERN
KENTUCKY IN A QUASI-DRY SLOT. WHILE A FEW SHOWERS COULD POP UP
ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES THROUGH THE NIGHT...IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE
AREA MAY STAY DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT. BY MONDAY...A SURFACE/MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL WORK EAST ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE CRANKING JUST
BEHIND THIS TROUGH AND COULD BE A WINDY DAY ACROSS THE AREA. GFS
925MB WINDS ARE NEAR 40 KNOTS.  FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE MUDDLED
AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. A DEEP TROUGH WILL
RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WITH THE PATTERN TURNING A
BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE. THIS WILL YIELD SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN OR SNOW
JUST ABOUT EACH DAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. AT THIS TIME...IT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE LOOKING LIKELY FOR ANY LARGE IMPACTFUL WINTER
STORMS...BUT GFS IS SUGGESTING A BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY SET UP OVER THE
AREA TOWARDS WEEKS END AND COULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO A LARGER SYSTEM
TOWARDS THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR AND WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...HAL







000
FXUS63 KJKL 211842
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
142 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1156 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

NOTHING BUT BLUE SKIES WITH TEMPS STILL LARGELY ON TRACK. UPDATED ONLY
TO BLEND LATE MORNING OBS INTO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 909 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO ACCOUNT FOR OBS AND LATEST MODEL DATA.
LOWERED CLOUD COVER FORECAST FOR TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS...OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY...WITH THE CENTER CURRENTLY RESIDING ACROSS ILLINOIS. A
WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FOUND ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC...WITH
A LEFTOVER COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM NEW ENGLAND DOWN ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH...BEFORE THE BOUNDARY BECOMES MORE STATIONARY NEAR THE ARKLATEX
REGION. ALOFT...CYCLONIC FLOW IS PULLING AWAY TO THE EAST...WITH MORE
ZONAL FLOW LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS AND THE PLAINS. EASTERN
KENTUCKY REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING FOR A CHILLY NIGHT...WITH SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATIONS CURRENTLY REPORTING IN THE TEENS.

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH
AMPLIFICATION ALOFT TAKING PLACE OUT WEST...AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
SWINGS EAST FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WHILE A MUCH DEEPER WAVE
MOVES IN ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL
ALLOW FOR DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE IN ACROSS THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER NEAR THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL SHOVE THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY
LATE IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING A
MODERATION TO THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS.

TODAY WILL FEATURE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING TO THE
UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH...TO THE MID 40S IN THE SOUTH. A LOW LEVEL JET
WILL RAMP UP ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA...HOWEVER
PRECIP LOOKS TO HAVE A HARD TIME OVERCOMING THE DRY AIR IN
PLACE...AND THE BEST LIFT WILL BE FURTHER OFF TO THE NORTHWEST...SO
HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LOWS WILL BE
TRICKY...AS THE EASTERN VALLEYS WILL LIKELY DECOUPLE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT AND THEN MAY REMAIN NEARLY STEADY AS CLOUDS
INCREASE. BROADER VALLEYS OUT WEST AND THE BLUEGRASS WILL LIKELY SEE
THEIR LOWS IN THE EVENING...AND THEN GRADUALLY WARM TOWARDS
DAWN...AS SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER
INCREASE.

THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A MILD SATURDAY...AS THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES AND ALLOWS FOR HIGHS TO RETURN TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS IN THE MID 50S...UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS
ILLINOIS...AND INTO MICHIGAN BY SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTH...A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. A STRONG MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL PIVOT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY...PROVIDING
LOTS OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...AT THE SAME
TIME...STRONG SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH DOWNSLOPING FLOW ANTICIPATED ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS WILL SET THE BATTLE BETWEEN THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND
FORCING ALOFT. AS IT STANDS NOW...FORCING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
OVERTAKE THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW BY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY THERE...SO HAVE GONE WITH A GRADIENT IN POPS FROM THE
WEST TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. QPF WILL ALSO SEE A GRADIENT
MATCHING THE POPS. IN ADDITION...THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST...ESPECIALLY IF
THE RAIN HOLDS OFF INTO THE AFTERNOON.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...FORCING EXITS TO THE NORTH...LEAVING EASTERN
KENTUCKY IN A QUASI-DRY SLOT. WHILE A FEW SHOWERS COULD POP UP
ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES THROUGH THE NIGHT...IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE
AREA MAY STAY DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT. BY MONDAY...A SURFACE/MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL WORK EAST ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE CRANKING JUST
BEHIND THIS TROUGH AND COULD BE A WINDY DAY ACROSS THE AREA. GFS
925MB WINDS ARE NEAR 40 KNOTS.  FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE MUDDLED
AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. A DEEP TROUGH WILL
RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WITH THE PATTERN TURNING A
BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE. THIS WILL YIELD SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN OR SNOW
JUST ABOUT EACH DAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. AT THIS TIME...IT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE LOOKING LIKELY FOR ANY LARGE IMPACTFUL WINTER
STORMS...BUT GFS IS SUGGESTING A BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY SET UP OVER THE
AREA TOWARDS WEEKS END AND COULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO A LARGER SYSTEM
TOWARDS THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR AND WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...HAL








000
FXUS63 KJKL 211656
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1156 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1156 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

NOTHING BUT BLUE SKIES WITH TEMPS STILL LARGELY ON TRACK. UPDATED ONLY
TO BLEND LATE MORNING OBS INTO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 909 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO ACCOUNT FOR OBS AND LATEST MODEL DATA.
LOWERED CLOUD COVER FORECAST FOR TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS...OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY...WITH THE CENTER CURRENTLY RESIDING ACROSS ILLINOIS. A
WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FOUND ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC...WITH
A LEFTOVER COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM NEW ENGLAND DOWN ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH...BEFORE THE BOUNDARY BECOMES MORE STATIONARY NEAR THE ARKLATEX
REGION. ALOFT...CYCLONIC FLOW IS PULLING AWAY TO THE EAST...WITH MORE
ZONAL FLOW LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS AND THE PLAINS. EASTERN
KENTUCKY REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING FOR A CHILLY NIGHT...WITH SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATIONS CURRENTLY REPORTING IN THE TEENS.

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH
AMPLIFICATION ALOFT TAKING PLACE OUT WEST...AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
SWINGS EAST FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WHILE A MUCH DEEPER WAVE
MOVES IN ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL
ALLOW FOR DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE IN ACROSS THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER NEAR THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL SHOVE THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY
LATE IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING A
MODERATION TO THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS.

TODAY WILL FEATURE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING TO THE
UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH...TO THE MID 40S IN THE SOUTH. A LOW LEVEL JET
WILL RAMP UP ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA...HOWEVER
PRECIP LOOKS TO HAVE A HARD TIME OVERCOMING THE DRY AIR IN
PLACE...AND THE BEST LIFT WILL BE FURTHER OFF TO THE NORTHWEST...SO
HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LOWS WILL BE
TRICKY...AS THE EASTERN VALLEYS WILL LIKELY DECOUPLE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT AND THEN MAY REMAIN NEARLY STEADY AS CLOUDS
INCREASE. BROADER VALLEYS OUT WEST AND THE BLUEGRASS WILL LIKELY SEE
THEIR LOWS IN THE EVENING...AND THEN GRADUALLY WARM TOWARDS
DAWN...AS SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER
INCREASE.

THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A MILD SATURDAY...AS THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES AND ALLOWS FOR HIGHS TO RETURN TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS IN THE MID 50S...UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS
ILLINOIS...AND INTO MICHIGAN BY SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTH...A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. A STRONG MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL PIVOT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY...PROVIDING
LOTS OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...AT THE SAME
TIME...STRONG SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH DOWNSLOPING FLOW ANTICIPATED ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS WILL SET THE BATTLE BETWEEN THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND
FORCING ALOFT. AS IT STANDS NOW...FORCING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
OVERTAKE THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW BY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY THERE...SO HAVE GONE WITH A GRADIENT IN POPS FROM THE
WEST TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. QPF WILL ALSO SEE A GRADIENT
MATCHING THE POPS. IN ADDITION...THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST...ESPECIALLY IF
THE RAIN HOLDS OFF INTO THE AFTERNOON.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...FORCING EXITS TO THE NORTH...LEAVING EASTERN
KENTUCKY IN A QUASI-DRY SLOT. WHILE A FEW SHOWERS COULD POP UP
ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES THROUGH THE NIGHT...IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE
AREA MAY STAY DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT. BY MONDAY...A SURFACE/MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL WORK EAST ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE CRANKING JUST
BEHIND THIS TROUGH AND COULD BE A WINDY DAY ACROSS THE AREA. GFS
925MB WINDS ARE NEAR 40 KNOTS.  FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE MUDDLED
AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. A DEEP TROUGH WILL
RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WITH THE PATTERN TURNING A
BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE. THIS WILL YIELD SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN OR SNOW
JUST ABOUT EACH DAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. AT THIS TIME...IT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE LOOKING LIKELY FOR ANY LARGE IMPACTFUL WINTER
STORMS...BUT GFS IS SUGGESTING A BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY SET UP OVER THE
AREA TOWARDS WEEKS END AND COULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO A LARGER SYSTEM
TOWARDS THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL THEN BE ON THE INCREASE
FROM THE WEST OUT AHEAD OF A WEAK PASSING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. WINDS
WILL ALSO GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AT AROUND
5 KTS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN








000
FXUS63 KJKL 211656
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1156 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1156 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

NOTHING BUT BLUE SKIES WITH TEMPS STILL LARGELY ON TRACK. UPDATED ONLY
TO BLEND LATE MORNING OBS INTO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 909 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO ACCOUNT FOR OBS AND LATEST MODEL DATA.
LOWERED CLOUD COVER FORECAST FOR TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS...OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY...WITH THE CENTER CURRENTLY RESIDING ACROSS ILLINOIS. A
WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FOUND ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC...WITH
A LEFTOVER COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM NEW ENGLAND DOWN ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH...BEFORE THE BOUNDARY BECOMES MORE STATIONARY NEAR THE ARKLATEX
REGION. ALOFT...CYCLONIC FLOW IS PULLING AWAY TO THE EAST...WITH MORE
ZONAL FLOW LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS AND THE PLAINS. EASTERN
KENTUCKY REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING FOR A CHILLY NIGHT...WITH SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATIONS CURRENTLY REPORTING IN THE TEENS.

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH
AMPLIFICATION ALOFT TAKING PLACE OUT WEST...AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
SWINGS EAST FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WHILE A MUCH DEEPER WAVE
MOVES IN ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL
ALLOW FOR DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE IN ACROSS THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER NEAR THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL SHOVE THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY
LATE IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING A
MODERATION TO THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS.

TODAY WILL FEATURE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING TO THE
UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH...TO THE MID 40S IN THE SOUTH. A LOW LEVEL JET
WILL RAMP UP ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA...HOWEVER
PRECIP LOOKS TO HAVE A HARD TIME OVERCOMING THE DRY AIR IN
PLACE...AND THE BEST LIFT WILL BE FURTHER OFF TO THE NORTHWEST...SO
HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LOWS WILL BE
TRICKY...AS THE EASTERN VALLEYS WILL LIKELY DECOUPLE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT AND THEN MAY REMAIN NEARLY STEADY AS CLOUDS
INCREASE. BROADER VALLEYS OUT WEST AND THE BLUEGRASS WILL LIKELY SEE
THEIR LOWS IN THE EVENING...AND THEN GRADUALLY WARM TOWARDS
DAWN...AS SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER
INCREASE.

THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A MILD SATURDAY...AS THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES AND ALLOWS FOR HIGHS TO RETURN TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS IN THE MID 50S...UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS
ILLINOIS...AND INTO MICHIGAN BY SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTH...A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. A STRONG MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL PIVOT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY...PROVIDING
LOTS OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...AT THE SAME
TIME...STRONG SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH DOWNSLOPING FLOW ANTICIPATED ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS WILL SET THE BATTLE BETWEEN THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND
FORCING ALOFT. AS IT STANDS NOW...FORCING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
OVERTAKE THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW BY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY THERE...SO HAVE GONE WITH A GRADIENT IN POPS FROM THE
WEST TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. QPF WILL ALSO SEE A GRADIENT
MATCHING THE POPS. IN ADDITION...THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST...ESPECIALLY IF
THE RAIN HOLDS OFF INTO THE AFTERNOON.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...FORCING EXITS TO THE NORTH...LEAVING EASTERN
KENTUCKY IN A QUASI-DRY SLOT. WHILE A FEW SHOWERS COULD POP UP
ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES THROUGH THE NIGHT...IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE
AREA MAY STAY DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT. BY MONDAY...A SURFACE/MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL WORK EAST ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE CRANKING JUST
BEHIND THIS TROUGH AND COULD BE A WINDY DAY ACROSS THE AREA. GFS
925MB WINDS ARE NEAR 40 KNOTS.  FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE MUDDLED
AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. A DEEP TROUGH WILL
RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WITH THE PATTERN TURNING A
BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE. THIS WILL YIELD SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN OR SNOW
JUST ABOUT EACH DAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. AT THIS TIME...IT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE LOOKING LIKELY FOR ANY LARGE IMPACTFUL WINTER
STORMS...BUT GFS IS SUGGESTING A BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY SET UP OVER THE
AREA TOWARDS WEEKS END AND COULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO A LARGER SYSTEM
TOWARDS THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL THEN BE ON THE INCREASE
FROM THE WEST OUT AHEAD OF A WEAK PASSING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. WINDS
WILL ALSO GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AT AROUND
5 KTS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN









000
FXUS63 KJKL 211409
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
909 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 909 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO ACCOUNT FOR OBS AND LATEST MODEL DATA.
LOWERED CLOUD COVER FORECAST FOR TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS...OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY...WITH THE CENTER CURRENTLY RESIDING ACROSS ILLINOIS. A
WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FOUND ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC...WITH
A LEFTOVER COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM NEW ENGLAND DOWN ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH...BEFORE THE BOUNDARY BECOMES MORE STATIONARY NEAR THE ARKLATEX
REGION. ALOFT...CYCLONIC FLOW IS PULLING AWAY TO THE EAST...WITH MORE
ZONAL FLOW LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS AND THE PLAINS. EASTERN
KENTUCKY REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING FOR A CHILLY NIGHT...WITH SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATIONS CURRENTLY REPORTING IN THE TEENS.

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH
AMPLIFICATION ALOFT TAKING PLACE OUT WEST...AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
SWINGS EAST FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WHILE A MUCH DEEPER WAVE
MOVES IN ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL
ALLOW FOR DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE IN ACROSS THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER NEAR THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL SHOVE THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY
LATE IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING A
MODERATION TO THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS.

TODAY WILL FEATURE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING TO THE
UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH...TO THE MID 40S IN THE SOUTH. A LOW LEVEL JET
WILL RAMP UP ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA...HOWEVER
PRECIP LOOKS TO HAVE A HARD TIME OVERCOMING THE DRY AIR IN
PLACE...AND THE BEST LIFT WILL BE FURTHER OFF TO THE NORTHWEST...SO
HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LOWS WILL BE
TRICKY...AS THE EASTERN VALLEYS WILL LIKELY DECOUPLE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT AND THEN MAY REMAIN NEARLY STEADY AS CLOUDS
INCREASE. BROADER VALLEYS OUT WEST AND THE BLUEGRASS WILL LIKELY SEE
THEIR LOWS IN THE EVENING...AND THEN GRADUALLY WARM TOWARDS
DAWN...AS SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER
INCREASE.

THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A MILD SATURDAY...AS THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES AND ALLOWS FOR HIGHS TO RETURN TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS IN THE MID 50S...UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS
ILLINOIS...AND INTO MICHIGAN BY SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTH...A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. A STRONG MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL PIVOT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY...PROVIDING
LOTS OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...AT THE SAME
TIME...STRONG SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH DOWNSLOPING FLOW ANTICIPATED ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS WILL SET THE BATTLE BETWEEN THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND
FORCING ALOFT. AS IT STANDS NOW...FORCING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
OVERTAKE THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW BY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY THERE...SO HAVE GONE WITH A GRADIENT IN POPS FROM THE
WEST TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. QPF WILL ALSO SEE A GRADIENT
MATCHING THE POPS. IN ADDITION...THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST...ESPECIALLY IF
THE RAIN HOLDS OFF INTO THE AFTERNOON.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...FORCING EXITS TO THE NORTH...LEAVING EASTERN
KENTUCKY IN A QUASI-DRY SLOT. WHILE A FEW SHOWERS COULD POP UP
ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES THROUGH THE NIGHT...IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE
AREA MAY STAY DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT. BY MONDAY...A SURFACE/MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL WORK EAST ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE CRANKING JUST
BEHIND THIS TROUGH AND COULD BE A WINDY DAY ACROSS THE AREA. GFS
925MB WINDS ARE NEAR 40 KNOTS.  FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE MUDDLED
AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. A DEEP TROUGH WILL
RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WITH THE PATTERN TURNING A
BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE. THIS WILL YIELD SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN OR SNOW
JUST ABOUT EACH DAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. AT THIS TIME...IT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE LOOKING LIKELY FOR ANY LARGE IMPACTFUL WINTER
STORMS...BUT GFS IS SUGGESTING A BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY SET UP OVER THE
AREA TOWARDS WEEKS END AND COULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO A LARGER SYSTEM
TOWARDS THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL THEN BE ON THE INCREASE
FROM THE WEST OUT AHEAD OF A WEAK PASSING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. WINDS
WILL ALSO GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AT AROUND
5 KTS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN








000
FXUS63 KJKL 211409
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
909 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 909 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO ACCOUNT FOR OBS AND LATEST MODEL DATA.
LOWERED CLOUD COVER FORECAST FOR TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS...OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY...WITH THE CENTER CURRENTLY RESIDING ACROSS ILLINOIS. A
WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FOUND ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC...WITH
A LEFTOVER COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM NEW ENGLAND DOWN ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH...BEFORE THE BOUNDARY BECOMES MORE STATIONARY NEAR THE ARKLATEX
REGION. ALOFT...CYCLONIC FLOW IS PULLING AWAY TO THE EAST...WITH MORE
ZONAL FLOW LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS AND THE PLAINS. EASTERN
KENTUCKY REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING FOR A CHILLY NIGHT...WITH SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATIONS CURRENTLY REPORTING IN THE TEENS.

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH
AMPLIFICATION ALOFT TAKING PLACE OUT WEST...AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
SWINGS EAST FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WHILE A MUCH DEEPER WAVE
MOVES IN ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL
ALLOW FOR DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE IN ACROSS THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER NEAR THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL SHOVE THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY
LATE IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING A
MODERATION TO THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS.

TODAY WILL FEATURE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING TO THE
UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH...TO THE MID 40S IN THE SOUTH. A LOW LEVEL JET
WILL RAMP UP ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA...HOWEVER
PRECIP LOOKS TO HAVE A HARD TIME OVERCOMING THE DRY AIR IN
PLACE...AND THE BEST LIFT WILL BE FURTHER OFF TO THE NORTHWEST...SO
HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LOWS WILL BE
TRICKY...AS THE EASTERN VALLEYS WILL LIKELY DECOUPLE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT AND THEN MAY REMAIN NEARLY STEADY AS CLOUDS
INCREASE. BROADER VALLEYS OUT WEST AND THE BLUEGRASS WILL LIKELY SEE
THEIR LOWS IN THE EVENING...AND THEN GRADUALLY WARM TOWARDS
DAWN...AS SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER
INCREASE.

THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A MILD SATURDAY...AS THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES AND ALLOWS FOR HIGHS TO RETURN TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS IN THE MID 50S...UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS
ILLINOIS...AND INTO MICHIGAN BY SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTH...A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. A STRONG MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL PIVOT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY...PROVIDING
LOTS OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...AT THE SAME
TIME...STRONG SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH DOWNSLOPING FLOW ANTICIPATED ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS WILL SET THE BATTLE BETWEEN THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND
FORCING ALOFT. AS IT STANDS NOW...FORCING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
OVERTAKE THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW BY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY THERE...SO HAVE GONE WITH A GRADIENT IN POPS FROM THE
WEST TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. QPF WILL ALSO SEE A GRADIENT
MATCHING THE POPS. IN ADDITION...THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST...ESPECIALLY IF
THE RAIN HOLDS OFF INTO THE AFTERNOON.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...FORCING EXITS TO THE NORTH...LEAVING EASTERN
KENTUCKY IN A QUASI-DRY SLOT. WHILE A FEW SHOWERS COULD POP UP
ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES THROUGH THE NIGHT...IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE
AREA MAY STAY DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT. BY MONDAY...A SURFACE/MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL WORK EAST ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE CRANKING JUST
BEHIND THIS TROUGH AND COULD BE A WINDY DAY ACROSS THE AREA. GFS
925MB WINDS ARE NEAR 40 KNOTS.  FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE MUDDLED
AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. A DEEP TROUGH WILL
RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WITH THE PATTERN TURNING A
BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE. THIS WILL YIELD SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN OR SNOW
JUST ABOUT EACH DAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. AT THIS TIME...IT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE LOOKING LIKELY FOR ANY LARGE IMPACTFUL WINTER
STORMS...BUT GFS IS SUGGESTING A BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY SET UP OVER THE
AREA TOWARDS WEEKS END AND COULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO A LARGER SYSTEM
TOWARDS THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL THEN BE ON THE INCREASE
FROM THE WEST OUT AHEAD OF A WEAK PASSING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. WINDS
WILL ALSO GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AT AROUND
5 KTS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN







000
FXUS63 KJKL 211245 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
745 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS...OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY...WITH THE CENTER CURRENTLY RESIDING ACROSS ILLINOIS. A
WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FOUND ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC...WITH
A LEFTOVER COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM NEW ENGLAND DOWN ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH...BEFORE THE BOUNDARY BECOMES MORE STATIONARY NEAR THE ARKLATEX
REGION. ALOFT...CYCLONIC FLOW IS PULLING AWAY TO THE EAST...WITH MORE
ZONAL FLOW LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS AND THE PLAINS. EASTERN
KENTUCKY REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING FOR A CHILLY NIGHT...WITH SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATIONS CURRENTLY REPORTING IN THE TEENS.

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH
AMPLIFICATION ALOFT TAKING PLACE OUT WEST...AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
SWINGS EAST FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WHILE A MUCH DEEPER WAVE
MOVES IN ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL
ALLOW FOR DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE IN ACROSS THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER NEAR THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL SHOVE THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY
LATE IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING A
MODERATION TO THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS.

TODAY WILL FEATURE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING TO THE
UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH...TO THE MID 40S IN THE SOUTH. A LOW LEVEL JET
WILL RAMP UP ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA...HOWEVER
PRECIP LOOKS TO HAVE A HARD TIME OVERCOMING THE DRY AIR IN
PLACE...AND THE BEST LIFT WILL BE FURTHER OFF TO THE NORTHWEST...SO
HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LOWS WILL BE
TRICKY...AS THE EASTERN VALLEYS WILL LIKELY DECOUPLE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT AND THEN MAY REMAIN NEARLY STEADY AS CLOUDS
INCREASE. BROADER VALLEYS OUT WEST AND THE BLUEGRASS WILL LIKELY SEE
THEIR LOWS IN THE EVENING...AND THEN GRADUALLY WARM TOWARDS
DAWN...AS SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER
INCREASE.

THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A MILD SATURDAY...AS THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES AND ALLOWS FOR HIGHS TO RETURN TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS IN THE MID 50S...UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS
ILLINOIS...AND INTO MICHIGAN BY SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTH...A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. A STRONG MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL PIVOT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY...PROVIDING
LOTS OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...AT THE SAME
TIME...STRONG SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH DOWNSLOPING FLOW ANTICIPATED ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS WILL SET THE BATTLE BETWEEN THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND
FORCING ALOFT. AS IT STANDS NOW...FORCING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
OVERTAKE THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW BY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY THERE...SO HAVE GONE WITH A GRADIENT IN POPS FROM THE
WEST TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. QPF WILL ALSO SEE A GRADIENT
MATCHING THE POPS. IN ADDITION...THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST...ESPECIALLY IF
THE RAIN HOLDS OFF INTO THE AFTERNOON.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...FORCING EXITS TO THE NORTH...LEAVING EASTERN
KENTUCKY IN A QUASI-DRY SLOT. WHILE A FEW SHOWERS COULD POP UP
ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES THROUGH THE NIGHT...IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE
AREA MAY STAY DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT. BY MONDAY...A SURFACE/MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL WORK EAST ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE CRANKING JUST
BEHIND THIS TROUGH AND COULD BE A WINDY DAY ACROSS THE AREA. GFS
925MB WINDS ARE NEAR 40 KNOTS.  FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE MUDDLED
AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. A DEEP TROUGH WILL
RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WITH THE PATTERN TURNING A
BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE. THIS WILL YIELD SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN OR SNOW
JUST ABOUT EACH DAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. AT THIS TIME...IT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE LOOKING LIKELY FOR ANY LARGE IMPACTFUL WINTER
STORMS...BUT GFS IS SUGGESTING A BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY SET UP OVER THE
AREA TOWARDS WEEKS END AND COULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO A LARGER SYSTEM
TOWARDS THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL THEN BE ON THE INCREASE
FROM THE WEST OUT AHEAD OF A WEAK PASSING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. WINDS
WILL ALSO GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AT AROUND
5 KTS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN







000
FXUS63 KJKL 211245 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
745 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS...OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY...WITH THE CENTER CURRENTLY RESIDING ACROSS ILLINOIS. A
WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FOUND ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC...WITH
A LEFTOVER COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM NEW ENGLAND DOWN ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH...BEFORE THE BOUNDARY BECOMES MORE STATIONARY NEAR THE ARKLATEX
REGION. ALOFT...CYCLONIC FLOW IS PULLING AWAY TO THE EAST...WITH MORE
ZONAL FLOW LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS AND THE PLAINS. EASTERN
KENTUCKY REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING FOR A CHILLY NIGHT...WITH SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATIONS CURRENTLY REPORTING IN THE TEENS.

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH
AMPLIFICATION ALOFT TAKING PLACE OUT WEST...AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
SWINGS EAST FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WHILE A MUCH DEEPER WAVE
MOVES IN ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL
ALLOW FOR DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE IN ACROSS THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER NEAR THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL SHOVE THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY
LATE IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING A
MODERATION TO THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS.

TODAY WILL FEATURE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING TO THE
UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH...TO THE MID 40S IN THE SOUTH. A LOW LEVEL JET
WILL RAMP UP ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA...HOWEVER
PRECIP LOOKS TO HAVE A HARD TIME OVERCOMING THE DRY AIR IN
PLACE...AND THE BEST LIFT WILL BE FURTHER OFF TO THE NORTHWEST...SO
HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LOWS WILL BE
TRICKY...AS THE EASTERN VALLEYS WILL LIKELY DECOUPLE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT AND THEN MAY REMAIN NEARLY STEADY AS CLOUDS
INCREASE. BROADER VALLEYS OUT WEST AND THE BLUEGRASS WILL LIKELY SEE
THEIR LOWS IN THE EVENING...AND THEN GRADUALLY WARM TOWARDS
DAWN...AS SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER
INCREASE.

THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A MILD SATURDAY...AS THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES AND ALLOWS FOR HIGHS TO RETURN TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS IN THE MID 50S...UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS
ILLINOIS...AND INTO MICHIGAN BY SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTH...A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. A STRONG MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL PIVOT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY...PROVIDING
LOTS OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...AT THE SAME
TIME...STRONG SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH DOWNSLOPING FLOW ANTICIPATED ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS WILL SET THE BATTLE BETWEEN THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND
FORCING ALOFT. AS IT STANDS NOW...FORCING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
OVERTAKE THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW BY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY THERE...SO HAVE GONE WITH A GRADIENT IN POPS FROM THE
WEST TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. QPF WILL ALSO SEE A GRADIENT
MATCHING THE POPS. IN ADDITION...THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST...ESPECIALLY IF
THE RAIN HOLDS OFF INTO THE AFTERNOON.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...FORCING EXITS TO THE NORTH...LEAVING EASTERN
KENTUCKY IN A QUASI-DRY SLOT. WHILE A FEW SHOWERS COULD POP UP
ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES THROUGH THE NIGHT...IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE
AREA MAY STAY DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT. BY MONDAY...A SURFACE/MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL WORK EAST ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE CRANKING JUST
BEHIND THIS TROUGH AND COULD BE A WINDY DAY ACROSS THE AREA. GFS
925MB WINDS ARE NEAR 40 KNOTS.  FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE MUDDLED
AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. A DEEP TROUGH WILL
RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WITH THE PATTERN TURNING A
BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE. THIS WILL YIELD SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN OR SNOW
JUST ABOUT EACH DAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. AT THIS TIME...IT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE LOOKING LIKELY FOR ANY LARGE IMPACTFUL WINTER
STORMS...BUT GFS IS SUGGESTING A BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY SET UP OVER THE
AREA TOWARDS WEEKS END AND COULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO A LARGER SYSTEM
TOWARDS THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL THEN BE ON THE INCREASE
FROM THE WEST OUT AHEAD OF A WEAK PASSING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. WINDS
WILL ALSO GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AT AROUND
5 KTS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN








000
FXUS63 KJKL 210858
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
358 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY...WITH THE CENTER CURRENTLY RESIDING ACROSS ILLINOIS. A
WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FOUND ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC...WITH
A LEFTOVER COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM NEW ENGLAND DOWN ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH...BEFORE THE BOUNDARY BECOMES MORE STATIONARY NEAR THE ARKLATEX
REGION. ALOFT...CYCLONIC FLOW IS PULLING AWAY TO THE EAST...WITH MORE
ZONAL FLOW LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS AND THE PLAINS. EASTERN
KENTUCKY REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING FOR A CHILLY NIGHT...WITH SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATIONS CURRENTLY REPORTING IN THE TEENS.

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH
AMPLIFICATION ALOFT TAKING PLACE OUT WEST...AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
SWINGS EAST FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WHILE A MUCH DEEPER WAVE
MOVES IN ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL
ALLOW FOR DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE IN ACROSS THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER NEAR THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL SHOVE THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY
LATE IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING A
MODERATION TO THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS.

TODAY WILL FEATURE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING TO THE
UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH...TO THE MID 40S IN THE SOUTH. A LOW LEVEL JET
WILL RAMP UP ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA...HOWEVER
PRECIP LOOKS TO HAVE A HARD TIME OVERCOMING THE DRY AIR IN
PLACE...AND THE BEST LIFT WILL BE FURTHER OFF TO THE NORTHWEST...SO
HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LOWS WILL BE
TRICKY...AS THE EASTERN VALLEYS WILL LIKELY DECOUPLE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT AND THEN MAY REMAIN NEARLY STEADY AS CLOUDS
INCREASE. BROADER VALLEYS OUT WEST AND THE BLUEGRASS WILL LIKELY SEE
THEIR LOWS IN THE EVENING...AND THEN GRADUALLY WARM TOWARDS
DAWN...AS SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER
INCREASE.

THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A MILD SATURDAY...AS THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES AND ALLOWS FOR HIGHS TO RETURN TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS IN THE MID 50S...UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS
ILLINOIS...AND INTO MICHIGAN BY SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTH...A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. A STRONG MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL PIVOT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY...PROVIDING
LOTS OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...AT THE SAME
TIME...STRONG SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH DOWNSLOPING FLOW ANTICIPATED ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS WILL SET THE BATTLE BETWEEN THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND
FORCING ALOFT. AS IT STANDS NOW...FORCING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
OVERTAKE THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW BY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY THERE...SO HAVE GONE WITH A GRADIENT IN POPS FROM THE
WEST TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. QPF WILL ALSO SEE A GRADIENT
MATCHING THE POPS. IN ADDITION...THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST...ESPECIALLY IF
THE RAIN HOLDS OFF INTO THE AFTERNOON.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...FORCING EXITS TO THE NORTH...LEAVING EASTERN
KENTUCKY IN A QUASI-DRY SLOT. WHILE A FEW SHOWERS COULD POP UP
ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES THROUGH THE NIGHT...IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE
AREA MAY STAY DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT. BY MONDAY...A SURFACE/MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL WORK EAST ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE CRANKING JUST
BEHIND THIS TROUGH AND COULD BE A WINDY DAY ACROSS THE AREA. GFS
925MB WINDS ARE NEAR 40 KNOTS.  FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE MUDDLED
AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. A DEEP TROUGH WILL
RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WITH THE PATTERN TURNING A
BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE. THIS WILL YIELD SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN OR SNOW
JUST ABOUT EACH DAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. AT THIS TIME...IT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE LOOKING LIKELY FOR ANY LARGE IMPACTFUL WINTER
STORMS...BUT GFS IS SUGGESTING A BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY SET UP OVER THE
AREA TOWARDS WEEKS END AND COULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO A LARGER SYSTEM
TOWARDS THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST. SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL
MOVE IN LATE IN THE PERIOD OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN










000
FXUS63 KJKL 210858
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
358 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY...WITH THE CENTER CURRENTLY RESIDING ACROSS ILLINOIS. A
WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FOUND ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC...WITH
A LEFTOVER COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM NEW ENGLAND DOWN ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH...BEFORE THE BOUNDARY BECOMES MORE STATIONARY NEAR THE ARKLATEX
REGION. ALOFT...CYCLONIC FLOW IS PULLING AWAY TO THE EAST...WITH MORE
ZONAL FLOW LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS AND THE PLAINS. EASTERN
KENTUCKY REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING FOR A CHILLY NIGHT...WITH SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATIONS CURRENTLY REPORTING IN THE TEENS.

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH
AMPLIFICATION ALOFT TAKING PLACE OUT WEST...AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
SWINGS EAST FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WHILE A MUCH DEEPER WAVE
MOVES IN ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL
ALLOW FOR DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE IN ACROSS THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER NEAR THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL SHOVE THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY
LATE IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING A
MODERATION TO THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS.

TODAY WILL FEATURE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING TO THE
UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH...TO THE MID 40S IN THE SOUTH. A LOW LEVEL JET
WILL RAMP UP ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA...HOWEVER
PRECIP LOOKS TO HAVE A HARD TIME OVERCOMING THE DRY AIR IN
PLACE...AND THE BEST LIFT WILL BE FURTHER OFF TO THE NORTHWEST...SO
HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LOWS WILL BE
TRICKY...AS THE EASTERN VALLEYS WILL LIKELY DECOUPLE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT AND THEN MAY REMAIN NEARLY STEADY AS CLOUDS
INCREASE. BROADER VALLEYS OUT WEST AND THE BLUEGRASS WILL LIKELY SEE
THEIR LOWS IN THE EVENING...AND THEN GRADUALLY WARM TOWARDS
DAWN...AS SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER
INCREASE.

THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A MILD SATURDAY...AS THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES AND ALLOWS FOR HIGHS TO RETURN TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS IN THE MID 50S...UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS
ILLINOIS...AND INTO MICHIGAN BY SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTH...A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. A STRONG MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL PIVOT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY...PROVIDING
LOTS OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...AT THE SAME
TIME...STRONG SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH DOWNSLOPING FLOW ANTICIPATED ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS WILL SET THE BATTLE BETWEEN THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND
FORCING ALOFT. AS IT STANDS NOW...FORCING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
OVERTAKE THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW BY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY THERE...SO HAVE GONE WITH A GRADIENT IN POPS FROM THE
WEST TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. QPF WILL ALSO SEE A GRADIENT
MATCHING THE POPS. IN ADDITION...THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST...ESPECIALLY IF
THE RAIN HOLDS OFF INTO THE AFTERNOON.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...FORCING EXITS TO THE NORTH...LEAVING EASTERN
KENTUCKY IN A QUASI-DRY SLOT. WHILE A FEW SHOWERS COULD POP UP
ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES THROUGH THE NIGHT...IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE
AREA MAY STAY DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT. BY MONDAY...A SURFACE/MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL WORK EAST ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE CRANKING JUST
BEHIND THIS TROUGH AND COULD BE A WINDY DAY ACROSS THE AREA. GFS
925MB WINDS ARE NEAR 40 KNOTS.  FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE MUDDLED
AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. A DEEP TROUGH WILL
RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WITH THE PATTERN TURNING A
BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE. THIS WILL YIELD SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN OR SNOW
JUST ABOUT EACH DAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. AT THIS TIME...IT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE LOOKING LIKELY FOR ANY LARGE IMPACTFUL WINTER
STORMS...BUT GFS IS SUGGESTING A BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY SET UP OVER THE
AREA TOWARDS WEEKS END AND COULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO A LARGER SYSTEM
TOWARDS THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST. SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL
MOVE IN LATE IN THE PERIOD OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN









000
FXUS63 KJKL 210632 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
132 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 132 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. JUST MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1018 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

THE FORECAST OVERALL HAS BEEN CLOSELY IN TUNE WITH HOURLY OBS SO FAR
THIS EVENING. HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN TWEAKED A
FEW TIMES USING OBS DATA...BUT OVERALL NO CHANGES WERE MADE THAT
WARRANTED ISSUING A NEW ZONE UPDATE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

A COLD FRONT EXITED SE OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...ALLOWING
ANOTHER BRIEF SURGE OF CHILLY AIR TO MOVE IN. THE AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT IS DRY...AND WITH NO PRECIP TO LEAVE RESIDUAL MOISTURE ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS...CLOUDS DISSOLVED QUICKLY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BE CENTERED OVER OUR
REGION AROUND DAWN. THIS WILL RESULT IN GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL TO THE TEENS AND LOWER
20S. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO OUR EAST BY LATE IN THE DAY
FRIDAY...BRINGING AN EVENTUAL RETURN OF WARM AIR ADVECTION.
HOWEVER...IT WILL BE TOO LATE IN THE DAY TO MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN
MAX TEMPS. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PERSISTS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR
NW COUNTIES. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP
THERE TOWARD DAWN. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT WELL BEFORE
DAWN AND THEN LEVEL OUT OR BEGIN TO RISE. THE BIGGEST CONCERN WOULD
BE WHETHER TEMPS MAKE IT BACK ABOVE FREEZING IN OUR FAR NW BEFORE ANY
PRECIP MIGHT OCCUR. TEMPS ALOFT LOOK TOO WARM FOR ANYTHING BUT LIQUID
TO FALL...SO HAVE INCLUDED RA AND FZRA AS POTENTIAL PRECIP TYPES
TOWARD DAWN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS TO THE EAST OF THE REGION BY
SATURDAY WITH RETURN FLOW FINALLY BRINGING HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK
INTO THE LOWER 50S. SYNOPTICALLY IN THE UPPER LEVELS GENERALLY
EXPECTING ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S.
WITH DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FOUR CORNER
STATES/NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING THE NEXT BEST CHANCE
OF PRECIP TO EASTERN KY. RIGHT NOW FOR SATURDAY THE 06Z GFS DOES SHOW
SIGNALS OF LIGHT PRECIP WHILE BOTH THE ECMWF/NAM. GIVEN THAT THE
SIGNALS ARE VERY LIGHT AND 12Z IS LESS DO NIGHT PLAN TO PUT ANY
SLIGHT POPS ON SATURDAY.

AFTER THIS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN FOUR
CORNER STATES/NORTHERN MEXICO NE INTO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED DEEPENING SURFACE LOW THERE WILL BE DEEP
SE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WILL TRANSLATE TO DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND WAA COMING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AS WE MOVE INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS DEEP MOISTURE IS EVIDENT IN THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH NAM/GFS WHERE PWAT INDEX ARE AOA INCH.
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH
WITH ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT. AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE NE INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AS WE GO THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER EXPECTING THIS SYSTEM TO
BRING GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE EASTERN KY ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. DID OPT TO LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER WITH MEAGER INSTABILITY. THE GFS HAS TRENDED A BIT SLOWER
WITH ONSET OF PRECIP AND WILL GO THAT DIRECTION WHICH WILL AID IN
BETTER COLLABORATION WITH OTHER OFFICES.

MOVING INTO THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST EXPECT THE WARM FRONT
TO CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTH OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COLD
FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
MONDAY. MODELS DO DIVERGE AT TIMES DURING THE LONGER RANGE PERIOD. GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY WILL STICK CLOSER TO THE MODEL BLEND. OVERALL BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT EXPECT A MOSTLY QUIET MORE ZONAL FLOW TO SETUP ACROSS
THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE PRECIP EVENTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST. SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL
MOVE IN LATE IN THE PERIOD OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN







000
FXUS63 KJKL 210632 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
132 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 132 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. JUST MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1018 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

THE FORECAST OVERALL HAS BEEN CLOSELY IN TUNE WITH HOURLY OBS SO FAR
THIS EVENING. HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN TWEAKED A
FEW TIMES USING OBS DATA...BUT OVERALL NO CHANGES WERE MADE THAT
WARRANTED ISSUING A NEW ZONE UPDATE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

A COLD FRONT EXITED SE OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...ALLOWING
ANOTHER BRIEF SURGE OF CHILLY AIR TO MOVE IN. THE AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT IS DRY...AND WITH NO PRECIP TO LEAVE RESIDUAL MOISTURE ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS...CLOUDS DISSOLVED QUICKLY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BE CENTERED OVER OUR
REGION AROUND DAWN. THIS WILL RESULT IN GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL TO THE TEENS AND LOWER
20S. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO OUR EAST BY LATE IN THE DAY
FRIDAY...BRINGING AN EVENTUAL RETURN OF WARM AIR ADVECTION.
HOWEVER...IT WILL BE TOO LATE IN THE DAY TO MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN
MAX TEMPS. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PERSISTS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR
NW COUNTIES. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP
THERE TOWARD DAWN. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT WELL BEFORE
DAWN AND THEN LEVEL OUT OR BEGIN TO RISE. THE BIGGEST CONCERN WOULD
BE WHETHER TEMPS MAKE IT BACK ABOVE FREEZING IN OUR FAR NW BEFORE ANY
PRECIP MIGHT OCCUR. TEMPS ALOFT LOOK TOO WARM FOR ANYTHING BUT LIQUID
TO FALL...SO HAVE INCLUDED RA AND FZRA AS POTENTIAL PRECIP TYPES
TOWARD DAWN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS TO THE EAST OF THE REGION BY
SATURDAY WITH RETURN FLOW FINALLY BRINGING HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK
INTO THE LOWER 50S. SYNOPTICALLY IN THE UPPER LEVELS GENERALLY
EXPECTING ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S.
WITH DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FOUR CORNER
STATES/NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING THE NEXT BEST CHANCE
OF PRECIP TO EASTERN KY. RIGHT NOW FOR SATURDAY THE 06Z GFS DOES SHOW
SIGNALS OF LIGHT PRECIP WHILE BOTH THE ECMWF/NAM. GIVEN THAT THE
SIGNALS ARE VERY LIGHT AND 12Z IS LESS DO NIGHT PLAN TO PUT ANY
SLIGHT POPS ON SATURDAY.

AFTER THIS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN FOUR
CORNER STATES/NORTHERN MEXICO NE INTO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED DEEPENING SURFACE LOW THERE WILL BE DEEP
SE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WILL TRANSLATE TO DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND WAA COMING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AS WE MOVE INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS DEEP MOISTURE IS EVIDENT IN THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH NAM/GFS WHERE PWAT INDEX ARE AOA INCH.
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH
WITH ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT. AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE NE INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AS WE GO THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER EXPECTING THIS SYSTEM TO
BRING GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE EASTERN KY ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. DID OPT TO LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER WITH MEAGER INSTABILITY. THE GFS HAS TRENDED A BIT SLOWER
WITH ONSET OF PRECIP AND WILL GO THAT DIRECTION WHICH WILL AID IN
BETTER COLLABORATION WITH OTHER OFFICES.

MOVING INTO THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST EXPECT THE WARM FRONT
TO CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTH OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COLD
FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
MONDAY. MODELS DO DIVERGE AT TIMES DURING THE LONGER RANGE PERIOD. GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY WILL STICK CLOSER TO THE MODEL BLEND. OVERALL BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT EXPECT A MOSTLY QUIET MORE ZONAL FLOW TO SETUP ACROSS
THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE PRECIP EVENTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST. SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL
MOVE IN LATE IN THE PERIOD OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN








000
FXUS63 KJKL 210318
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1018 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1018 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

THE FORECAST OVERALL HAS BEEN CLOSELY IN TUNE WITH HOURLY OBS SO FAR
THIS EVENING. HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN TWEAKED A
FEW TIMES USING OBS DATA...BUT OVERALL NO CHANGES WERE MADE THAT
WARRANTED ISSUING A NEW ZONE UPDATE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

A COLD FRONT EXITED SE OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...ALLOWING
ANOTHER BRIEF SURGE OF CHILLY AIR TO MOVE IN. THE AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT IS DRY...AND WITH NO PRECIP TO LEAVE RESIDUAL MOISTURE ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS...CLOUDS DISSOLVED QUICKLY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BE CENTERED OVER OUR
REGION AROUND DAWN. THIS WILL RESULT IN GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL TO THE TEENS AND LOWER
20S. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO OUR EAST BY LATE IN THE DAY
FRIDAY...BRINGING AN EVENTUAL RETURN OF WARM AIR ADVECTION.
HOWEVER...IT WILL BE TOO LATE IN THE DAY TO MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN
MAX TEMPS. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PERSISTS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR
NW COUNTIES. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP
THERE TOWARD DAWN. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT WELL BEFORE
DAWN AND THEN LEVEL OUT OR BEGIN TO RISE. THE BIGGEST CONCERN WOULD
BE WHETHER TEMPS MAKE IT BACK ABOVE FREEZING IN OUR FAR NW BEFORE ANY
PRECIP MIGHT OCCUR. TEMPS ALOFT LOOK TOO WARM FOR ANYTHING BUT LIQUID
TO FALL...SO HAVE INCLUDED RA AND FZRA AS POTENTIAL PRECIP TYPES
TOWARD DAWN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS TO THE EAST OF THE REGION BY
SATURDAY WITH RETURN FLOW FINALLY BRINGING HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK
INTO THE LOWER 50S. SYNOPTICALLY IN THE UPPER LEVELS GENERALLY
EXPECTING ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S.
WITH DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FOUR CORNER
STATES/NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING THE NEXT BEST CHANCE
OF PRECIP TO EASTERN KY. RIGHT NOW FOR SATURDAY THE 06Z GFS DOES SHOW
SIGNALS OF LIGHT PRECIP WHILE BOTH THE ECMWF/NAM. GIVEN THAT THE
SIGNALS ARE VERY LIGHT AND 12Z IS LESS DO NIGHT PLAN TO PUT ANY
SLIGHT POPS ON SATURDAY.

AFTER THIS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN FOUR
CORNER STATES/NORTHERN MEXICO NE INTO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED DEEPENING SURFACE LOW THERE WILL BE DEEP
SE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WILL TRANSLATE TO DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND WAA COMING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AS WE MOVE INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS DEEP MOISTURE IS EVIDENT IN THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH NAM/GFS WHERE PWAT INDEX ARE AOA INCH.
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH
WITH ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT. AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE NE INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AS WE GO THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER EXPECTING THIS SYSTEM TO
BRING GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE EASTERN KY ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. DID OPT TO LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER WITH MEAGER INSTABILITY. THE GFS HAS TRENDED A BIT SLOWER
WITH ONSET OF PRECIP AND WILL GO THAT DIRECTION WHICH WILL AID IN
BETTER COLLABORATION WITH OTHER OFFICES.

MOVING INTO THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST EXPECT THE WARM FRONT
TO CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTH OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COLD
FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
MONDAY. MODELS DO DIVERGE AT TIMES DURING THE LONGER RANGE PERIOD. GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY WILL STICK CLOSER TO THE MODEL BLEND. OVERALL BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT EXPECT A MOSTLY QUIET MORE ZONAL FLOW TO SETUP ACROSS
THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE PRECIP EVENTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

A PRETTY STRAIGHT FORWARD AVIATION FORECAST ON TAP TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. A RIDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER
COLD AND DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AS WELL WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THERE
MAY BE PERIODS WHEN WE SEE SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AT THE TAF
SITES...ON THE ORDER OF 1-2K CLOUD BASE HEIGHT...BUT NOTHING THAT
WOULD CREATE ANY MAJOR ISSUES FOR GENERAL AVIATORS. THERE COULD ALSO
BE SOME CLOUD COVER AROUND 3-4K BUT AGAIN NOTHING THAT WOULD CAUSE
ANY PROBLEMS. WINDS WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS
WELL.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...AR








000
FXUS63 KJKL 210318
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1018 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1018 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

THE FORECAST OVERALL HAS BEEN CLOSELY IN TUNE WITH HOURLY OBS SO FAR
THIS EVENING. HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN TWEAKED A
FEW TIMES USING OBS DATA...BUT OVERALL NO CHANGES WERE MADE THAT
WARRANTED ISSUING A NEW ZONE UPDATE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

A COLD FRONT EXITED SE OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...ALLOWING
ANOTHER BRIEF SURGE OF CHILLY AIR TO MOVE IN. THE AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT IS DRY...AND WITH NO PRECIP TO LEAVE RESIDUAL MOISTURE ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS...CLOUDS DISSOLVED QUICKLY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BE CENTERED OVER OUR
REGION AROUND DAWN. THIS WILL RESULT IN GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL TO THE TEENS AND LOWER
20S. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO OUR EAST BY LATE IN THE DAY
FRIDAY...BRINGING AN EVENTUAL RETURN OF WARM AIR ADVECTION.
HOWEVER...IT WILL BE TOO LATE IN THE DAY TO MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN
MAX TEMPS. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PERSISTS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR
NW COUNTIES. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP
THERE TOWARD DAWN. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT WELL BEFORE
DAWN AND THEN LEVEL OUT OR BEGIN TO RISE. THE BIGGEST CONCERN WOULD
BE WHETHER TEMPS MAKE IT BACK ABOVE FREEZING IN OUR FAR NW BEFORE ANY
PRECIP MIGHT OCCUR. TEMPS ALOFT LOOK TOO WARM FOR ANYTHING BUT LIQUID
TO FALL...SO HAVE INCLUDED RA AND FZRA AS POTENTIAL PRECIP TYPES
TOWARD DAWN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS TO THE EAST OF THE REGION BY
SATURDAY WITH RETURN FLOW FINALLY BRINGING HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK
INTO THE LOWER 50S. SYNOPTICALLY IN THE UPPER LEVELS GENERALLY
EXPECTING ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S.
WITH DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FOUR CORNER
STATES/NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING THE NEXT BEST CHANCE
OF PRECIP TO EASTERN KY. RIGHT NOW FOR SATURDAY THE 06Z GFS DOES SHOW
SIGNALS OF LIGHT PRECIP WHILE BOTH THE ECMWF/NAM. GIVEN THAT THE
SIGNALS ARE VERY LIGHT AND 12Z IS LESS DO NIGHT PLAN TO PUT ANY
SLIGHT POPS ON SATURDAY.

AFTER THIS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN FOUR
CORNER STATES/NORTHERN MEXICO NE INTO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED DEEPENING SURFACE LOW THERE WILL BE DEEP
SE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WILL TRANSLATE TO DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND WAA COMING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AS WE MOVE INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS DEEP MOISTURE IS EVIDENT IN THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH NAM/GFS WHERE PWAT INDEX ARE AOA INCH.
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH
WITH ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT. AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE NE INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AS WE GO THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER EXPECTING THIS SYSTEM TO
BRING GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE EASTERN KY ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. DID OPT TO LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER WITH MEAGER INSTABILITY. THE GFS HAS TRENDED A BIT SLOWER
WITH ONSET OF PRECIP AND WILL GO THAT DIRECTION WHICH WILL AID IN
BETTER COLLABORATION WITH OTHER OFFICES.

MOVING INTO THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST EXPECT THE WARM FRONT
TO CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTH OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COLD
FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
MONDAY. MODELS DO DIVERGE AT TIMES DURING THE LONGER RANGE PERIOD. GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY WILL STICK CLOSER TO THE MODEL BLEND. OVERALL BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT EXPECT A MOSTLY QUIET MORE ZONAL FLOW TO SETUP ACROSS
THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE PRECIP EVENTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

A PRETTY STRAIGHT FORWARD AVIATION FORECAST ON TAP TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. A RIDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER
COLD AND DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AS WELL WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THERE
MAY BE PERIODS WHEN WE SEE SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AT THE TAF
SITES...ON THE ORDER OF 1-2K CLOUD BASE HEIGHT...BUT NOTHING THAT
WOULD CREATE ANY MAJOR ISSUES FOR GENERAL AVIATORS. THERE COULD ALSO
BE SOME CLOUD COVER AROUND 3-4K BUT AGAIN NOTHING THAT WOULD CAUSE
ANY PROBLEMS. WINDS WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS
WELL.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...AR







000
FXUS63 KJKL 202328
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
628 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

A COLD FRONT EXITED SE OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...ALLOWING
ANOTHER BRIEF SURGE OF CHILLY AIR TO MOVE IN. THE AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT IS DRY...AND WITH NO PRECIP TO LEAVE RESIDUAL MOISTURE ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS...CLOUDS DISSOLVED QUICKLY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BE CENTERED OVER OUR
REGION AROUND DAWN. THIS WILL RESULT IN GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL TO THE TEENS AND LOWER
20S. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO OUR EAST BY LATE IN THE DAY
FRIDAY...BRINGING AN EVENTUAL RETURN OF WARM AIR ADVECTION.
HOWEVER...IT WILL BE TOO LATE IN THE DAY TO MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN
MAX TEMPS. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PERSISTS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR
NW COUNTIES. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP
THERE TOWARD DAWN. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT WELL BEFORE
DAWN AND THEN LEVEL OUT OR BEGIN TO RISE. THE BIGGEST CONCERN WOULD
BE WHETHER TEMPS MAKE IT BACK ABOVE FREEZING IN OUR FAR NW BEFORE ANY
PRECIP MIGHT OCCUR. TEMPS ALOFT LOOK TOO WARM FOR ANYTHING BUT LIQUID
TO FALL...SO HAVE INCLUDED RA AND FZRA AS POTENTIAL PRECIP TYPES
TOWARD DAWN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS TO THE EAST OF THE REGION BY
SATURDAY WITH RETURN FLOW FINALLY BRINGING HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK
INTO THE LOWER 50S. SYNOPTICALLY IN THE UPPER LEVELS GENERALLY
EXPECTING ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S.
WITH DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FOUR CORNER
STATES/NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING THE NEXT BEST CHANCE
OF PRECIP TO EASTERN KY. RIGHT NOW FOR SATURDAY THE 06Z GFS DOES SHOW
SIGNALS OF LIGHT PRECIP WHILE BOTH THE ECMWF/NAM. GIVEN THAT THE
SIGNALS ARE VERY LIGHT AND 12Z IS LESS DO NIGHT PLAN TO PUT ANY
SLIGHT POPS ON SATURDAY.

AFTER THIS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN FOUR
CORNER STATES/NORTHERN MEXICO NE INTO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED DEEPENING SURFACE LOW THERE WILL BE DEEP
SE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WILL TRANSLATE TO DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND WAA COMING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AS WE MOVE INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS DEEP MOISTURE IS EVIDENT IN THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH NAM/GFS WHERE PWAT INDEX ARE AOA INCH.
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH
WITH ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT. AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE NE INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AS WE GO THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER EXPECTING THIS SYSTEM TO
BRING GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE EASTERN KY ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. DID OPT TO LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER WITH MEAGER INSTABILITY. THE GFS HAS TRENDED A BIT SLOWER
WITH ONSET OF PRECIP AND WILL GO THAT DIRECTION WHICH WILL AID IN
BETTER COLLABORATION WITH OTHER OFFICES.

MOVING INTO THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST EXPECT THE WARM FRONT
TO CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTH OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COLD
FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
MONDAY. MODELS DO DIVERGE AT TIMES DURING THE LONGER RANGE PERIOD. GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY WILL STICK CLOSER TO THE MODEL BLEND. OVERALL BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT EXPECT A MOSTLY QUIET MORE ZONAL FLOW TO SETUP ACROSS
THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE PRECIP EVENTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

A PRETTY STRAIGHT FORWARD AVIATION FORECAST ON TAP TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. A RIDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER
COLD AND DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AS WELL WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THERE
MAY BE PERIODS WHEN WE SEE SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AT THE TAF
SITES...ON THE ORDER OF 1-2K CLOUD BASE HEIGHT...BUT NOTHING THAT
WOULD CREATE ANY MAJOR ISSUES FOR GENERAL AVIATORS. THERE COULD ALSO
BE SOME CLOUD COVER AROUND 3-4K BUT AGAIN NOTHING THAT WOULD CAUSE
ANY PROBLEMS. WINDS WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS
WELL.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...AR








000
FXUS63 KJKL 202044
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
344 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

A COLD FRONT EXITED SE OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...ALLOWING
ANOTHER BRIEF SURGE OF CHILLY AIR TO MOVE IN. THE AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT IS DRY...AND WITH NO PRECIP TO LEAVE RESIDUAL MOISTURE ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS...CLOUDS DISSOLVED QUICKLY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BE CENTERED OVER OUR
REGION AROUND DAWN. THIS WILL RESULT IN GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL TO THE TEENS AND LOWER
20S. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO OUR EAST BY LATE IN THE DAY
FRIDAY...BRINGING AN EVENTUAL RETURN OF WARM AIR ADVECTION.
HOWEVER...IT WILL BE TOO LATE IN THE DAY TO MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN
MAX TEMPS. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PERSISTS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR
NW COUNTIES. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP
THERE TOWARD DAWN. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT WELL BEFORE
DAWN AND THEN LEVEL OUT OR BEGIN TO RISE. THE BIGGEST CONCERN WOULD
BE WHETHER TEMPS MAKE IT BACK ABOVE FREEZING IN OUR FAR NW BEFORE ANY
PRECIP MIGHT OCCUR. TEMPS ALOFT LOOK TOO WARM FOR ANYTHING BUT LIQUID
TO FALL...SO HAVE INCLUDED RA AND FZRA AS POTENTIAL PRECIP TYPES
TOWARD DAWN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS TO THE EAST OF THE REGION BY
SATURDAY WITH RETURN FLOW FINALLY BRINGING HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK
INTO THE LOWER 50S. SYNOPTICALLY IN THE UPPER LEVELS GENERALLY
EXPECTING ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S.
WITH DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FOUR CORNER
STATES/NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING THE NEXT BEST CHANCE
OF PRECIP TO EASTERN KY. RIGHT NOW FOR SATURDAY THE 06Z GFS DOES SHOW
SIGNALS OF LIGHT PRECIP WHILE BOTH THE ECMWF/NAM. GIVEN THAT THE
SIGNALS ARE VERY LIGHT AND 12Z IS LESS DO NIGHT PLAN TO PUT ANY
SLIGHT POPS ON SATURDAY.

AFTER THIS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN FOUR
CORNER STATES/NORTHERN MEXICO NE INTO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED DEEPENING SURFACE LOW THERE WILL BE DEEP
SE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WILL TRANSLATE TO DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND WAA COMING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AS WE MOVE INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS DEEP MOISTURE IS EVIDENT IN THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH NAM/GFS WHERE PWAT INDEX ARE AOA INCH.
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH
WITH ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT. AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE NE INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AS WE GO THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER EXPECTING THIS SYSTEM TO
BRING GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE EASTERN KY ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. DID OPT TO LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER WITH MEAGER INSTABILITY. THE GFS HAS TRENDED A BIT SLOWER
WITH ONSET OF PRECIP AND WILL GO THAT DIRECTION WHICH WILL AID IN
BETTER COLLABORATION WITH OTHER OFFICES.

MOVING INTO THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST EXPECT THE WARM FRONT
TO CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTH OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COLD
FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
MONDAY. MODELS DO DIVERGE AT TIMES DURING THE LONGER RANGE PERIOD. GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY WILL STICK CLOSER TO THE MODEL BLEND. OVERALL BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT EXPECT A MOSTLY QUIET MORE ZONAL FLOW TO SETUP ACROSS
THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE PRECIP EVENTS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME
IFR OR MVFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE
NE PART OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT THE PROBABILITY IS LOW
ENOUGH THAT THE FORECAST IS NOT CALLING FOR CEILINGS. WINDS WILL BE A
LITTLE BRISK THIS AFTERNOON...SUSTAINED AROUND 10 KTS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA...WITH A FEW GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KTS. THE WINDS WILL DIE
DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...HAL







000
FXUS63 KJKL 202044
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
344 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

A COLD FRONT EXITED SE OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...ALLOWING
ANOTHER BRIEF SURGE OF CHILLY AIR TO MOVE IN. THE AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT IS DRY...AND WITH NO PRECIP TO LEAVE RESIDUAL MOISTURE ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS...CLOUDS DISSOLVED QUICKLY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BE CENTERED OVER OUR
REGION AROUND DAWN. THIS WILL RESULT IN GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL TO THE TEENS AND LOWER
20S. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO OUR EAST BY LATE IN THE DAY
FRIDAY...BRINGING AN EVENTUAL RETURN OF WARM AIR ADVECTION.
HOWEVER...IT WILL BE TOO LATE IN THE DAY TO MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN
MAX TEMPS. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PERSISTS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR
NW COUNTIES. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP
THERE TOWARD DAWN. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT WELL BEFORE
DAWN AND THEN LEVEL OUT OR BEGIN TO RISE. THE BIGGEST CONCERN WOULD
BE WHETHER TEMPS MAKE IT BACK ABOVE FREEZING IN OUR FAR NW BEFORE ANY
PRECIP MIGHT OCCUR. TEMPS ALOFT LOOK TOO WARM FOR ANYTHING BUT LIQUID
TO FALL...SO HAVE INCLUDED RA AND FZRA AS POTENTIAL PRECIP TYPES
TOWARD DAWN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS TO THE EAST OF THE REGION BY
SATURDAY WITH RETURN FLOW FINALLY BRINGING HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK
INTO THE LOWER 50S. SYNOPTICALLY IN THE UPPER LEVELS GENERALLY
EXPECTING ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S.
WITH DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FOUR CORNER
STATES/NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING THE NEXT BEST CHANCE
OF PRECIP TO EASTERN KY. RIGHT NOW FOR SATURDAY THE 06Z GFS DOES SHOW
SIGNALS OF LIGHT PRECIP WHILE BOTH THE ECMWF/NAM. GIVEN THAT THE
SIGNALS ARE VERY LIGHT AND 12Z IS LESS DO NIGHT PLAN TO PUT ANY
SLIGHT POPS ON SATURDAY.

AFTER THIS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN FOUR
CORNER STATES/NORTHERN MEXICO NE INTO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED DEEPENING SURFACE LOW THERE WILL BE DEEP
SE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WILL TRANSLATE TO DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND WAA COMING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AS WE MOVE INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS DEEP MOISTURE IS EVIDENT IN THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH NAM/GFS WHERE PWAT INDEX ARE AOA INCH.
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH
WITH ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT. AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE NE INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AS WE GO THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER EXPECTING THIS SYSTEM TO
BRING GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE EASTERN KY ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. DID OPT TO LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER WITH MEAGER INSTABILITY. THE GFS HAS TRENDED A BIT SLOWER
WITH ONSET OF PRECIP AND WILL GO THAT DIRECTION WHICH WILL AID IN
BETTER COLLABORATION WITH OTHER OFFICES.

MOVING INTO THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST EXPECT THE WARM FRONT
TO CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTH OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COLD
FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
MONDAY. MODELS DO DIVERGE AT TIMES DURING THE LONGER RANGE PERIOD. GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY WILL STICK CLOSER TO THE MODEL BLEND. OVERALL BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT EXPECT A MOSTLY QUIET MORE ZONAL FLOW TO SETUP ACROSS
THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE PRECIP EVENTS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME
IFR OR MVFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE
NE PART OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT THE PROBABILITY IS LOW
ENOUGH THAT THE FORECAST IS NOT CALLING FOR CEILINGS. WINDS WILL BE A
LITTLE BRISK THIS AFTERNOON...SUSTAINED AROUND 10 KTS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA...WITH A FEW GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KTS. THE WINDS WILL DIE
DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...HAL








000
FXUS63 KJKL 202007
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
307 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

A COLD FRONT EXITED SE OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...ALLOWING
ANOTHER BRIEF SURGE OF CHILLY AIR TO MOVE IN. THE AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT IS DRY...AND WITH NO PRECIP TO LEAVE RESIDUAL MOISTURE ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS...CLOUDS DISSOLVED QUICKLY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BE CENTERED OVER OUR
REGION AROUND DAWN. THIS WILL RESULT IN GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL TO THE TEENS AND LOWER
20S. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO OUR EAST BY LATE IN THE DAY
FRIDAY...BRINGING AN EVENTUAL RETURN OF WARM AIR ADVECTION.
HOWEVER...IT WILL BE TOO LATE IN THE DAY TO MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN
MAX TEMPS. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PERSISTS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR
NW COUNTIES. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP
THERE TOWARD DAWN. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT WELL BEFORE
DAWN AND THEN LEVEL OUT OR BEGIN TO RISE. THE BIGGEST CONCERN WOULD
BE WHETHER TEMPS MAKE IT BACK ABOVE FREEZING IN OUR FAR NW BEFORE ANY
PRECIP MIGHT OCCUR. TEMPS ALOFT LOOK TOO WARM FOR ANYTHING BUT LIQUID
TO FALL...SO HAVE INCLUDED RA AND FZRA AS POTENTIAL PRECIP TYPES
TOWARD DAWN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

AN UPDATED LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME
IFR OR MVFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE
NE PART OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT THE PROBABILITY IS LOW
ENOUGH THAT THE FORECAST IS NOT CALLING FOR CEILINGS. WINDS WILL BE A
LITTLE BRISK THIS AFTERNOON...SUSTAINED AROUND 10 KTS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA...WITH A FEW GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KTS. THE WINDS WILL DIE
DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...HAL








000
FXUS63 KJKL 202007
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
307 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

A COLD FRONT EXITED SE OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...ALLOWING
ANOTHER BRIEF SURGE OF CHILLY AIR TO MOVE IN. THE AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT IS DRY...AND WITH NO PRECIP TO LEAVE RESIDUAL MOISTURE ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS...CLOUDS DISSOLVED QUICKLY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BE CENTERED OVER OUR
REGION AROUND DAWN. THIS WILL RESULT IN GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL TO THE TEENS AND LOWER
20S. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO OUR EAST BY LATE IN THE DAY
FRIDAY...BRINGING AN EVENTUAL RETURN OF WARM AIR ADVECTION.
HOWEVER...IT WILL BE TOO LATE IN THE DAY TO MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN
MAX TEMPS. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PERSISTS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR
NW COUNTIES. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP
THERE TOWARD DAWN. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT WELL BEFORE
DAWN AND THEN LEVEL OUT OR BEGIN TO RISE. THE BIGGEST CONCERN WOULD
BE WHETHER TEMPS MAKE IT BACK ABOVE FREEZING IN OUR FAR NW BEFORE ANY
PRECIP MIGHT OCCUR. TEMPS ALOFT LOOK TOO WARM FOR ANYTHING BUT LIQUID
TO FALL...SO HAVE INCLUDED RA AND FZRA AS POTENTIAL PRECIP TYPES
TOWARD DAWN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

AN UPDATED LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME
IFR OR MVFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE
NE PART OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT THE PROBABILITY IS LOW
ENOUGH THAT THE FORECAST IS NOT CALLING FOR CEILINGS. WINDS WILL BE A
LITTLE BRISK THIS AFTERNOON...SUSTAINED AROUND 10 KTS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA...WITH A FEW GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KTS. THE WINDS WILL DIE
DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...HAL







000
FXUS63 KJKL 201820
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
120 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 120 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON LATEST TRENDS.
LOWERED CLOUD COVER A BIT MORE...AND RAISED TEMPS SLIGHTLY IN OUR SE
COUNTIES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1052 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

BASED ON OBS AND LATEST MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS...HAVE UPDATED
MAINLY FOR TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER. OVERALL...CLOUDS SHOULD BE A BIT
LESS EXTENSIVE THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. EVEN SO...TEMPS SHOULD
NOT SHOW MUCH RISE TODAY...AS COLD AIR ADVECTION OFFSETS SOLAR
INSOLATION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 757 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND SKY COVER TO
MATCH UP BETTER WITH THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. TEMPERATURES
HAVE COOLED OFF TO THE MID AND UPPER 20S NEAR THE I-64
CORRIDOR...WITH LOWS STILL BEING ESTABLISHED ACROSS LOCATIONS TO THE
SOUTH. HAVE REMOVED FLURRIES FROM THE FORECAST WITH THE MOISTURE
BECOMING MORE AND MORE SHALLOW WITH TIME. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS ALIGNED FROM CENTRAL WV DOWN ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOUND ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES. ALOFT...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS CURRENTLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS...STEMMING FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CHURNING ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO.

SOUTHWEST WINDS AND CLOUD COVER OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST OF THE VALLEYS AND RIDGE TOPS REMAINING IN THE
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING
TO COOL OFF...WITH LOWER 30S FOUND ACROSS THE I-64 CORRIDOR AND LOWER
20S CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER. A FEW LIGHT RADAR RETURNS ARE SEEN
ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO...WITH A STRAY FLURRY REPORT HERE AND
THERE.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE
FRONT CLEARING EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH DAYBREAK. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
TO SCATTER OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER
30S IN THE NORTH...TO THE LOWER 40S TO THE SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT...WITH
LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE TEENS FOR MOST LOCATIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME MODEST RETURN FLOW STARTING TO WORK IN. HIGHS
WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY TO THE MID 30S IN THE NORTH...TO THE MID 40S
IN THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

TO START OFF 0Z SATURDAY...EASTERN KY WILL FIND ITSELF IN A ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN...WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW TO OUR NE
EXITING OFF THE CANADIAN EAST COAST...AND A DEEPENING
SHORTWAVE/CLOSED LOW MOVING SW WARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS.
BETWEEN 0 AND 12Z SATURDAY...A SMALL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION...ABUNDANT MOISTURE FLOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE GULF
COAST AND UP THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ALL MODELS ARE CONTINUING
TO SHOW PRECIP POTENTIAL FROM ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER
AND POINTS NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...NONE OF THE MODELS /WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE LATEST GFS/ SHOW THE PRECIP ACTUALLY MAKING IT INTO
EASTERN KY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THIS IS CONTRARY TO SOME OF THE
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...BUT SEEMS TO CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLOWING TREND
AWAY FROM OUR CWA...SO WILL TRY TO FOLLOW.

BY SUNDAY...THIS SHORTWAVE WILL LOSE CONSIDERABLE STRENGTH...WHILE
THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS...ON THE OTHER
HAND...CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. ALL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO ARKLATEX
SATURDAY EVENING...AND THEN MAKE A QUICK SHIFT IN ITS DIRECTIONAL
TRACK...PULLING UP NE ACROSS KENTUCKY. AT THE SURFACE...THESE
LOWERED HEIGHTS WILL TRANSLATE TO A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...WITH ABUNDANT WAA ADVECTION AND MOISTURE FLOW OFF OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF THE LOW. UNLIKE SATURDAY WHERE THE MODELS
WERE UNDETERMINED ON IF PRECIP WOULD AFFECT THE AREA...IT IS A
DEFINITE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY REGION. IT IS A QUICK MOVER...SO ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS
AND ECMWF...PRECIP SHOULD MOVE INTO THE CWA BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z
SUNDAY...AND MOVE BACK OUT JUST AFTER 0Z MON. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE
TO SHOW AN EXCELLENT VEERING PATTERN WITH SRLY/WSW WINDS NEAR THE
SURFACE...AND GOOD SPEED SHEER IN THE LOW LEVELS AS WELL. AS A
RESULT...WILL KEEP THUNDER MENTIONED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
SUNDAY...BUT GIVEN THE STRONG LLVL CAP IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...WOULD BE A LITTLE MORE HESITANT TO GO ABOVE SLIGHT CHANCES
AT THIS POINT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE ALSO SHOWING A SECONDARY
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH AFTER THE INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE...WHICH
COULD BRING YET ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TO KY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE
ECMWF POINTS AT SOME LIGHT WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MOVING BACK INTO
NORTH CENTRAL KY...THE GFS DOES NOT. AFTER SOME COLLABORATING WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES...DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND KEEP OUR MODEL
BLEND...WHICH FEATURED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS LOCATION AND TIME
PERIOD. REGARDLESS...IF ANYTHING DOES OCCUR...IT WILL LIKELY BE VERY
LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES...AND SHOULDN/T CAUSE TOO MUCH IMPACT.
ASSUMING IT EVEN SHOWS UP IN THE NEXT MODEL RUNS. GIVEN THE BOUNCING
AROUND NATURE OF THE MODELS DURING THE END OF THE
EXTENDED...WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.

IT IS DURING THIS TIME /SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY/ THAT THE SHORTWAVE
ALOFT WILL MERGE WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM AND CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY.
GIVEN THE MERGER LOCATION DUE NORTH OF KY MONDAY NIGHT...IT IS
ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE COULD AFFECT KY AS
WE HEAD INTO MIDWEEK. UNFORTUNATELY MODELS DISAGREE ON THIS
SUBJECT...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING PRECIP...AND THE GFS NOT. WILL
CONTINUE TO GO WITH GENERAL CONSENSUS THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME
IFR OR MVFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE
NE PART OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT THE PROBABILITY IS LOW
ENOUGH THAT FORECAST IS NOT CALLING FOR CEILINGS. WINDS WILL BE A
LITTLE BRISK THIS AFTERNOON...SUSTAINED AROUND 10 KTS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA...WITH A FEW GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KTS. THE WINDS WILL DIE
DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...HAL







000
FXUS63 KJKL 201552
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1052 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

BASED ON OBS AND LATEST MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS...HAVE UPDATED
MAINLY FOR TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER. OVERALL...CLOUDS SHOULD BE A BIT
LESS EXTENSIVE THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. EVEN SO...TEMPS SHOULD
NOT SHOW MUCH RISE TODAY...AS COLD AIR ADVECTION OFFSETS SOLAR
INSOLATION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 757 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND SKY COVER TO
MATCH UP BETTER WITH THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. TEMPERATURES
HAVE COOLED OFF TO THE MID AND UPPER 20S NEAR THE I-64
CORRIDOR...WITH LOWS STILL BEING ESTABLISHED ACROSS LOCATIONS TO THE
SOUTH. HAVE REMOVED FLURRIES FROM THE FORECAST WITH THE MOISTURE
BECOMING MORE AND MORE SHALLOW WITH TIME. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS ALIGNED FROM CENTRAL WV DOWN ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOUND ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES. ALOFT...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS CURRENTLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS...STEMMING FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CHURNING ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO.

SOUTHWEST WINDS AND CLOUD COVER OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST OF THE VALLEYS AND RIDGETOPS REMAINING IN THE
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING
TO COOL OFF...WITH LOWER 30S FOUND ACROSS THE I-64 CORRIDOR AND LOWER
20S CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER. A FEW LIGHT RADAR RETURNS ARE SEEN
ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO...WITH A STRAY FLURRY REPORT HERE AND
THERE.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE
FRONT CLEARING EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH DAYBREAK. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
TO SCATTER OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER
30S IN THE NORTH...TO THE LOWER 40S TO THE SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT...WITH
LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE TEENS FOR MOST LOCATIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME MODEST RETURN FLOW STARTING TO WORK IN. HIGHS
WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY TO THE MID 30S IN THE NORTH...TO THE MID 40S
IN THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

TO START OFF 0Z SATURDAY...EASTERN KY WILL FIND ITSELF IN A ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN...WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW TO OUR NE
EXITING OFF THE CANADIAN EAST COAST...AND A DEEPENING
SHORTWAVE/CLOSED LOW MOVING SW WARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS.
BETWEEN 0 AND 12Z SATURDAY...A SMALL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION...ABUNDANT MOISTURE FLOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE GULF
COAST AND UP THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ALL MODELS ARE CONTINUING
TO SHOW PRECIP POTENTIAL FROM ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER
AND POINTS NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...NONE OF THE MODELS /WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE LATEST GFS/ SHOW THE PRECIP ACTUALLY MAKING IT INTO
EASTERN KY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THIS IS CONTRARY TO SOME OF THE
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...BUT SEEMS TO CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLOWING TREND
AWAY FROM OUR CWA...SO WILL TRY TO FOLLOW.

BY SUNDAY...THIS SHORTWAVE WILL LOSE CONSIDERABLE STRENGTH...WHILE
THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS...ON THE OTHER
HAND...CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. ALL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO ARKLATEX
SATURDAY EVENING...AND THEN MAKE A QUICK SHIFT IN ITS DIRECTIONAL
TRACK...PULLING UP NE ACROSS KENTUCKY. AT THE SURFACE...THESE
LOWERED HEIGHTS WILL TRANSLATE TO A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...WITH ABUNDANT WAA ADVECTION AND MOISTURE FLOW OFF OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF THE LOW. UNLIKE SATURDAY WHERE THE MODELS
WERE UNDETERMINED ON IF PRECIP WOULD AFFECT THE AREA...IT IS A
DEFINITE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY REGION. IT IS A QUICK MOVER...SO ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS
AND ECMWF...PRECIP SHOULD MOVE INTO THE CWA BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z
SUNDAY...AND MOVE BACK OUT JUST AFTER 0Z MON. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE
TO SHOW AN EXCELLENT VEERING PATTERN WITH SRLY/WSW WINDS NEAR THE
SURFACE...AND GOOD SPEED SHEER IN THE LOW LEVELS AS WELL. AS A
RESULT...WILL KEEP THUNDER MENTIONED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
SUNDAY...BUT GIVEN THE STRONG LLVL CAP IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...WOULD BE A LITTLE MORE HESITANT TO GO ABOVE SLIGHT CHANCES
AT THIS POINT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE ALSO SHOWING A SECONDARY
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH AFTER THE INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE...WHICH
COULD BRING YET ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TO KY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE
ECMWF POINTS AT SOME LIGHT WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MOVING BACK INTO
NORTH CENTRAL KY...THE GFS DOES NOT. AFTER SOME COLLABORATING WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES...DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND KEEP OUR MODEL
BLEND...WHICH FEATURED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS LOCATION AND TIME
PERIOD. REGARDLESS...IF ANYTHING DOES OCCUR...IT WILL LIKELY BE VERY
LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES...AND SHOULDN/T CAUSE TOO MUCH IMPACT.
ASSUMING IT EVEN SHOWS UP IN THE NEXT MODEL RUNS. GIVEN THE BOUNCING
AROUND NATURE OF THE MODELS DURING THE END OF THE
EXTENDED...WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.

IT IS DURING THIS TIME /SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY/ THAT THE SHORTWAVE
ALOFT WILL MERGE WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM AND CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY.
GIVEN THE MERGER LOCATION DUE NORTH OF KY MONDAY NIGHT...IT IS
ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE COULD AFFECT KY AS
WE HEAD INTO MIDWEEK. UNFORTUNATELY MODELS DISAGREE ON THIS
SUBJECT...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING PRECIP...AND THE GFS NOT. WILL
CONTINUE TO GO WITH GENERAL CONSENSUS THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 757 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

CEILINGS IN THE 3-5K FEET AGL RANGE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...BEFORE GRADUALLY SCATTERING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE AREA. WESTERLY WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF AROUND
15 KTS WILL BE SEEN THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING BY DUSK.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN







000
FXUS63 KJKL 201552
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1052 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

BASED ON OBS AND LATEST MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS...HAVE UPDATED
MAINLY FOR TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER. OVERALL...CLOUDS SHOULD BE A BIT
LESS EXTENSIVE THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. EVEN SO...TEMPS SHOULD
NOT SHOW MUCH RISE TODAY...AS COLD AIR ADVECTION OFFSETS SOLAR
INSOLATION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 757 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND SKY COVER TO
MATCH UP BETTER WITH THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. TEMPERATURES
HAVE COOLED OFF TO THE MID AND UPPER 20S NEAR THE I-64
CORRIDOR...WITH LOWS STILL BEING ESTABLISHED ACROSS LOCATIONS TO THE
SOUTH. HAVE REMOVED FLURRIES FROM THE FORECAST WITH THE MOISTURE
BECOMING MORE AND MORE SHALLOW WITH TIME. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS ALIGNED FROM CENTRAL WV DOWN ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOUND ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES. ALOFT...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS CURRENTLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS...STEMMING FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CHURNING ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO.

SOUTHWEST WINDS AND CLOUD COVER OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST OF THE VALLEYS AND RIDGETOPS REMAINING IN THE
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING
TO COOL OFF...WITH LOWER 30S FOUND ACROSS THE I-64 CORRIDOR AND LOWER
20S CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER. A FEW LIGHT RADAR RETURNS ARE SEEN
ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO...WITH A STRAY FLURRY REPORT HERE AND
THERE.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE
FRONT CLEARING EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH DAYBREAK. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
TO SCATTER OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER
30S IN THE NORTH...TO THE LOWER 40S TO THE SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT...WITH
LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE TEENS FOR MOST LOCATIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME MODEST RETURN FLOW STARTING TO WORK IN. HIGHS
WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY TO THE MID 30S IN THE NORTH...TO THE MID 40S
IN THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

TO START OFF 0Z SATURDAY...EASTERN KY WILL FIND ITSELF IN A ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN...WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW TO OUR NE
EXITING OFF THE CANADIAN EAST COAST...AND A DEEPENING
SHORTWAVE/CLOSED LOW MOVING SW WARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS.
BETWEEN 0 AND 12Z SATURDAY...A SMALL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION...ABUNDANT MOISTURE FLOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE GULF
COAST AND UP THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ALL MODELS ARE CONTINUING
TO SHOW PRECIP POTENTIAL FROM ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER
AND POINTS NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...NONE OF THE MODELS /WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE LATEST GFS/ SHOW THE PRECIP ACTUALLY MAKING IT INTO
EASTERN KY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THIS IS CONTRARY TO SOME OF THE
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...BUT SEEMS TO CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLOWING TREND
AWAY FROM OUR CWA...SO WILL TRY TO FOLLOW.

BY SUNDAY...THIS SHORTWAVE WILL LOSE CONSIDERABLE STRENGTH...WHILE
THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS...ON THE OTHER
HAND...CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. ALL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO ARKLATEX
SATURDAY EVENING...AND THEN MAKE A QUICK SHIFT IN ITS DIRECTIONAL
TRACK...PULLING UP NE ACROSS KENTUCKY. AT THE SURFACE...THESE
LOWERED HEIGHTS WILL TRANSLATE TO A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...WITH ABUNDANT WAA ADVECTION AND MOISTURE FLOW OFF OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF THE LOW. UNLIKE SATURDAY WHERE THE MODELS
WERE UNDETERMINED ON IF PRECIP WOULD AFFECT THE AREA...IT IS A
DEFINITE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY REGION. IT IS A QUICK MOVER...SO ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS
AND ECMWF...PRECIP SHOULD MOVE INTO THE CWA BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z
SUNDAY...AND MOVE BACK OUT JUST AFTER 0Z MON. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE
TO SHOW AN EXCELLENT VEERING PATTERN WITH SRLY/WSW WINDS NEAR THE
SURFACE...AND GOOD SPEED SHEER IN THE LOW LEVELS AS WELL. AS A
RESULT...WILL KEEP THUNDER MENTIONED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
SUNDAY...BUT GIVEN THE STRONG LLVL CAP IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...WOULD BE A LITTLE MORE HESITANT TO GO ABOVE SLIGHT CHANCES
AT THIS POINT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE ALSO SHOWING A SECONDARY
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH AFTER THE INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE...WHICH
COULD BRING YET ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TO KY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE
ECMWF POINTS AT SOME LIGHT WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MOVING BACK INTO
NORTH CENTRAL KY...THE GFS DOES NOT. AFTER SOME COLLABORATING WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES...DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND KEEP OUR MODEL
BLEND...WHICH FEATURED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS LOCATION AND TIME
PERIOD. REGARDLESS...IF ANYTHING DOES OCCUR...IT WILL LIKELY BE VERY
LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES...AND SHOULDN/T CAUSE TOO MUCH IMPACT.
ASSUMING IT EVEN SHOWS UP IN THE NEXT MODEL RUNS. GIVEN THE BOUNCING
AROUND NATURE OF THE MODELS DURING THE END OF THE
EXTENDED...WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.

IT IS DURING THIS TIME /SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY/ THAT THE SHORTWAVE
ALOFT WILL MERGE WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM AND CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY.
GIVEN THE MERGER LOCATION DUE NORTH OF KY MONDAY NIGHT...IT IS
ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE COULD AFFECT KY AS
WE HEAD INTO MIDWEEK. UNFORTUNATELY MODELS DISAGREE ON THIS
SUBJECT...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING PRECIP...AND THE GFS NOT. WILL
CONTINUE TO GO WITH GENERAL CONSENSUS THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 757 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

CEILINGS IN THE 3-5K FEET AGL RANGE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...BEFORE GRADUALLY SCATTERING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE AREA. WESTERLY WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF AROUND
15 KTS WILL BE SEEN THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING BY DUSK.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN








000
FXUS63 KJKL 201257 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
757 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 757 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND SKY COVER TO
MATCH UP BETTER WITH THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. TEMPERATURES
HAVE COOLED OFF TO THE MID AND UPPER 20S NEAR THE I-64
CORRIDOR...WITH LOWS STILL BEING ESTABLISHED ACROSS LOCATIONS TO THE
SOUTH. HAVE REMOVED FLURRIES FROM THE FORECAST WITH THE MOISTURE
BECOMING MORE AND MORE SHALLOW WITH TIME. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS ALIGNED FROM CENTRAL WV DOWN ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOUND ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES. ALOFT...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS CURRENTLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS...STEMMING FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CHURNING ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO.

SOUTHWEST WINDS AND CLOUD COVER OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST OF THE VALLEYS AND RIDGETOPS REMAINING IN THE
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING
TO COOL OFF...WITH LOWER 30S FOUND ACROSS THE I-64 CORRIDOR AND LOWER
20S CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER. A FEW LIGHT RADAR RETURNS ARE SEEN
ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO...WITH A STRAY FLURRY REPORT HERE AND
THERE.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE
FRONT CLEARING EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH DAYBREAK. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
TO SCATTER OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER
30S IN THE NORTH...TO THE LOWER 40S TO THE SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT...WITH
LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE TEENS FOR MOST LOCATIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME MODEST RETURN FLOW STARTING TO WORK IN. HIGHS
WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY TO THE MID 30S IN THE NORTH...TO THE MID 40S
IN THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

TO START OFF 0Z SATURDAY...EASTERN KY WILL FIND ITSELF IN A ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN...WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW TO OUR NE
EXITING OFF THE CANADIAN EAST COAST...AND A DEEPENING
SHORTWAVE/CLOSED LOW MOVING SW WARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS.
BETWEEN 0 AND 12Z SATURDAY...A SMALL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION...ABUNDANT MOISTURE FLOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE GULF
COAST AND UP THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ALL MODELS ARE CONTINUING
TO SHOW PRECIP POTENTIAL FROM ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER
AND POINTS NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...NONE OF THE MODELS /WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE LATEST GFS/ SHOW THE PRECIP ACTUALLY MAKING IT INTO
EASTERN KY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THIS IS CONTRARY TO SOME OF THE
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...BUT SEEMS TO CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLOWING TREND
AWAY FROM OUR CWA...SO WILL TRY TO FOLLOW.

BY SUNDAY...THIS SHORTWAVE WILL LOSE CONSIDERABLE STRENGTH...WHILE
THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS...ON THE OTHER
HAND...CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. ALL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO ARKLATEX
SATURDAY EVENING...AND THEN MAKE A QUICK SHIFT IN ITS DIRECTIONAL
TRACK...PULLING UP NE ACROSS KENTUCKY. AT THE SURFACE...THESE
LOWERED HEIGHTS WILL TRANSLATE TO A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...WITH ABUNDANT WAA ADVECTION AND MOISTURE FLOW OFF OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF THE LOW. UNLIKE SATURDAY WHERE THE MODELS
WERE UNDETERMINED ON IF PRECIP WOULD AFFECT THE AREA...IT IS A
DEFINITE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY REGION. IT IS A QUICK MOVER...SO ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS
AND ECMWF...PRECIP SHOULD MOVE INTO THE CWA BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z
SUNDAY...AND MOVE BACK OUT JUST AFTER 0Z MON. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE
TO SHOW AN EXCELLENT VEERING PATTERN WITH SRLY/WSW WINDS NEAR THE
SURFACE...AND GOOD SPEED SHEER IN THE LOW LEVELS AS WELL. AS A
RESULT...WILL KEEP THUNDER MENTIONED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
SUNDAY...BUT GIVEN THE STRONG LLVL CAP IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...WOULD BE A LITTLE MORE HESITANT TO GO ABOVE SLIGHT CHANCES
AT THIS POINT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE ALSO SHOWING A SECONDARY
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH AFTER THE INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE...WHICH
COULD BRING YET ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TO KY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE
ECMWF POINTS AT SOME LIGHT WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MOVING BACK INTO
NORTH CENTRAL KY...THE GFS DOES NOT. AFTER SOME COLLABORATING WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES...DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND KEEP OUR MODEL
BLEND...WHICH FEATURED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS LOCATION AND TIME
PERIOD. REGARDLESS...IF ANYTHING DOES OCCUR...IT WILL LIKELY BE VERY
LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES...AND SHOULDN/T CAUSE TOO MUCH IMPACT.
ASSUMING IT EVEN SHOWS UP IN THE NEXT MODEL RUNS. GIVEN THE BOUNCING
AROUND NATURE OF THE MODELS DURING THE END OF THE
EXTENDED...WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.

IT IS DURING THIS TIME /SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY/ THAT THE SHORTWAVE
ALOFT WILL MERGE WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM AND CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY.
GIVEN THE MERGER LOCATION DUE NORTH OF KY MONDAY NIGHT...IT IS
ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE COULD AFFECT KY AS
WE HEAD INTO MIDWEEK. UNFORTUNATELY MODELS DISAGREE ON THIS
SUBJECT...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING PRECIP...AND THE GFS NOT. WILL
CONTINUE TO GO WITH GENERAL CONSENSUS THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 757 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

CEILINGS IN THE 3-5K FEET AGL RANGE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...BEFORE GRADUALLY SCATTERING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE AREA. WESTERLY WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF AROUND
15 KTS WILL BE SEEN THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING BY DUSK.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN








000
FXUS63 KJKL 201257 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
757 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 757 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND SKY COVER TO
MATCH UP BETTER WITH THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. TEMPERATURES
HAVE COOLED OFF TO THE MID AND UPPER 20S NEAR THE I-64
CORRIDOR...WITH LOWS STILL BEING ESTABLISHED ACROSS LOCATIONS TO THE
SOUTH. HAVE REMOVED FLURRIES FROM THE FORECAST WITH THE MOISTURE
BECOMING MORE AND MORE SHALLOW WITH TIME. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS ALIGNED FROM CENTRAL WV DOWN ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOUND ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES. ALOFT...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS CURRENTLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS...STEMMING FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CHURNING ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO.

SOUTHWEST WINDS AND CLOUD COVER OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST OF THE VALLEYS AND RIDGETOPS REMAINING IN THE
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING
TO COOL OFF...WITH LOWER 30S FOUND ACROSS THE I-64 CORRIDOR AND LOWER
20S CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER. A FEW LIGHT RADAR RETURNS ARE SEEN
ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO...WITH A STRAY FLURRY REPORT HERE AND
THERE.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE
FRONT CLEARING EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH DAYBREAK. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
TO SCATTER OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER
30S IN THE NORTH...TO THE LOWER 40S TO THE SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT...WITH
LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE TEENS FOR MOST LOCATIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME MODEST RETURN FLOW STARTING TO WORK IN. HIGHS
WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY TO THE MID 30S IN THE NORTH...TO THE MID 40S
IN THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

TO START OFF 0Z SATURDAY...EASTERN KY WILL FIND ITSELF IN A ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN...WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW TO OUR NE
EXITING OFF THE CANADIAN EAST COAST...AND A DEEPENING
SHORTWAVE/CLOSED LOW MOVING SW WARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS.
BETWEEN 0 AND 12Z SATURDAY...A SMALL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION...ABUNDANT MOISTURE FLOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE GULF
COAST AND UP THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ALL MODELS ARE CONTINUING
TO SHOW PRECIP POTENTIAL FROM ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER
AND POINTS NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...NONE OF THE MODELS /WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE LATEST GFS/ SHOW THE PRECIP ACTUALLY MAKING IT INTO
EASTERN KY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THIS IS CONTRARY TO SOME OF THE
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...BUT SEEMS TO CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLOWING TREND
AWAY FROM OUR CWA...SO WILL TRY TO FOLLOW.

BY SUNDAY...THIS SHORTWAVE WILL LOSE CONSIDERABLE STRENGTH...WHILE
THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS...ON THE OTHER
HAND...CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. ALL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO ARKLATEX
SATURDAY EVENING...AND THEN MAKE A QUICK SHIFT IN ITS DIRECTIONAL
TRACK...PULLING UP NE ACROSS KENTUCKY. AT THE SURFACE...THESE
LOWERED HEIGHTS WILL TRANSLATE TO A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...WITH ABUNDANT WAA ADVECTION AND MOISTURE FLOW OFF OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF THE LOW. UNLIKE SATURDAY WHERE THE MODELS
WERE UNDETERMINED ON IF PRECIP WOULD AFFECT THE AREA...IT IS A
DEFINITE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY REGION. IT IS A QUICK MOVER...SO ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS
AND ECMWF...PRECIP SHOULD MOVE INTO THE CWA BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z
SUNDAY...AND MOVE BACK OUT JUST AFTER 0Z MON. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE
TO SHOW AN EXCELLENT VEERING PATTERN WITH SRLY/WSW WINDS NEAR THE
SURFACE...AND GOOD SPEED SHEER IN THE LOW LEVELS AS WELL. AS A
RESULT...WILL KEEP THUNDER MENTIONED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
SUNDAY...BUT GIVEN THE STRONG LLVL CAP IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...WOULD BE A LITTLE MORE HESITANT TO GO ABOVE SLIGHT CHANCES
AT THIS POINT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE ALSO SHOWING A SECONDARY
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH AFTER THE INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE...WHICH
COULD BRING YET ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TO KY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE
ECMWF POINTS AT SOME LIGHT WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MOVING BACK INTO
NORTH CENTRAL KY...THE GFS DOES NOT. AFTER SOME COLLABORATING WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES...DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND KEEP OUR MODEL
BLEND...WHICH FEATURED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS LOCATION AND TIME
PERIOD. REGARDLESS...IF ANYTHING DOES OCCUR...IT WILL LIKELY BE VERY
LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES...AND SHOULDN/T CAUSE TOO MUCH IMPACT.
ASSUMING IT EVEN SHOWS UP IN THE NEXT MODEL RUNS. GIVEN THE BOUNCING
AROUND NATURE OF THE MODELS DURING THE END OF THE
EXTENDED...WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.

IT IS DURING THIS TIME /SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY/ THAT THE SHORTWAVE
ALOFT WILL MERGE WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM AND CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY.
GIVEN THE MERGER LOCATION DUE NORTH OF KY MONDAY NIGHT...IT IS
ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE COULD AFFECT KY AS
WE HEAD INTO MIDWEEK. UNFORTUNATELY MODELS DISAGREE ON THIS
SUBJECT...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING PRECIP...AND THE GFS NOT. WILL
CONTINUE TO GO WITH GENERAL CONSENSUS THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 757 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

CEILINGS IN THE 3-5K FEET AGL RANGE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...BEFORE GRADUALLY SCATTERING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE AREA. WESTERLY WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF AROUND
15 KTS WILL BE SEEN THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING BY DUSK.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN







000
FXUS63 KJKL 200858
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
358 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS ALIGNED FROM CENTRAL WV DOWN ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOUND ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES. ALOFT...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS CURRENTLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS...STEMMING FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CHURNING ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO.

SOUTHWEST WINDS AND CLOUD COVER OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST OF THE VALLEYS AND RIDGETOPS REMAINING IN THE
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING
TO COOL OFF...WITH LOWER 30S FOUND ACROSS THE I-64 CORRIDOR AND LOWER
20S CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER. A FEW LIGHT RADAR RETURNS ARE SEEN
ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO...WITH A STRAY FLURRY REPORT HERE AND
THERE.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE
FRONT CLEARING EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH DAYBREAK. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
TO SCATTER OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER
30S IN THE NORTH...TO THE LOWER 40S TO THE SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT...WITH
LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE TEENS FOR MOST LOCATIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME MODEST RETURN FLOW STARTING TO WORK IN. HIGHS
WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY TO THE MID 30S IN THE NORTH...TO THE MID 40S
IN THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

TO START OFF 0Z SATURDAY...EASTERN KY WILL FIND ITSELF IN A ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN...WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW TO OUR NE
EXITING OFF THE CANADIAN EAST COAST...AND A DEEPENING
SHORTWAVE/CLOSED LOW MOVING SW WARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS.
BETWEEN 0 AND 12Z SATURDAY...A SMALL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION...ABUNDANT MOISTURE FLOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE GULF
COAST AND UP THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ALL MODELS ARE CONTINUING
TO SHOW PRECIP POTENTIAL FROM ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER
AND POINTS NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...NONE OF THE MODELS /WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE LATEST GFS/ SHOW THE PRECIP ACTUALLY MAKING IT INTO
EASTERN KY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THIS IS CONTRARY TO SOME OF THE
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...BUT SEEMS TO CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLOWING TREND
AWAY FROM OUR CWA...SO WILL TRY TO FOLLOW.

BY SUNDAY...THIS SHORTWAVE WILL LOSE CONSIDERABLE STRENGTH...WHILE
THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS...ON THE OTHER
HAND...CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. ALL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO ARKLATEX
SATURDAY EVENING...AND THEN MAKE A QUICK SHIFT IN ITS DIRECTIONAL
TRACK...PULLING UP NE ACROSS KENTUCKY. AT THE SURFACE...THESE
LOWERED HEIGHTS WILL TRANSLATE TO A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...WITH ABUNDANT WAA ADVECTION AND MOISTURE FLOW OFF OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF THE LOW. UNLIKE SATURDAY WHERE THE MODELS
WERE UNDETERMINED ON IF PRECIP WOULD AFFECT THE AREA...IT IS A
DEFINITE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY REGION. IT IS A QUICK MOVER...SO ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS
AND ECMWF...PRECIP SHOULD MOVE INTO THE CWA BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z
SUNDAY...AND MOVE BACK OUT JUST AFTER 0Z MON. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE
TO SHOW AN EXCELLENT VEERING PATTERN WITH SRLY/WSW WINDS NEAR THE
SURFACE...AND GOOD SPEED SHEER IN THE LOW LEVELS AS WELL. AS A
RESULT...WILL KEEP THUNDER MENTIONED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
SUNDAY...BUT GIVEN THE STRONG LLVL CAP IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...WOULD BE A LITTLE MORE HESITANT TO GO ABOVE SLIGHT CHANCES
AT THIS POINT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE ALSO SHOWING A SECONDARY
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH AFTER THE INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE...WHICH
COULD BRING YET ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TO KY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE
ECMWF POINTS AT SOME LIGHT WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MOVING BACK INTO
NORTH CENTRAL KY...THE GFS DOES NOT. AFTER SOME COLLABORATING WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES...DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND KEEP OUR MODEL
BLEND...WHICH FEATURED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS LOCATION AND TIME
PERIOD. REGARDLESS...IF ANYTHING DOES OCCUR...IT WILL LIKELY BE VERY
LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES...AND SHOULDN/T CAUSE TOO MUCH IMPACT.
ASSUMING IT EVEN SHOWS UP IN THE NEXT MODEL RUNS. GIVEN THE BOUNCING
AROUND NATURE OF THE MODELS DURING THE END OF THE
EXTENDED...WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.

IT IS DURING THIS TIME /SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY/ THAT THE SHORTWAVE
ALOFT WILL MERGE WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM AND CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY.
GIVEN THE MERGER LOCATION DUE NORTH OF KY MONDAY NIGHT...IT IS
ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE COULD AFFECT KY AS
WE HEAD INTO MIDWEEK. UNFORTUNATELY MODELS DISAGREE ON THIS
SUBJECT...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING PRECIP...AND THE GFS NOT. WILL
CONTINUE TO GO WITH GENERAL CONSENSUS THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL BRING CEILINGS DOWN TO AROUND 4K FEET AGL
ACROSS THE AREA...ALONG WITH PRODUCING A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS...WITH GUSTS IN THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE
WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE GUSTINESS WILL
SUBSIDE TOWARDS DAWN...AND THEN COMMENCE ONCE AGAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE DIMINISHING BY DUSK. CEILINGS WILL SCATTER
OUT BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN







000
FXUS63 KJKL 200858
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
358 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS ALIGNED FROM CENTRAL WV DOWN ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOUND ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES. ALOFT...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS CURRENTLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS...STEMMING FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CHURNING ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO.

SOUTHWEST WINDS AND CLOUD COVER OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST OF THE VALLEYS AND RIDGETOPS REMAINING IN THE
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING
TO COOL OFF...WITH LOWER 30S FOUND ACROSS THE I-64 CORRIDOR AND LOWER
20S CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER. A FEW LIGHT RADAR RETURNS ARE SEEN
ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO...WITH A STRAY FLURRY REPORT HERE AND
THERE.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE
FRONT CLEARING EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH DAYBREAK. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
TO SCATTER OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER
30S IN THE NORTH...TO THE LOWER 40S TO THE SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT...WITH
LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE TEENS FOR MOST LOCATIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME MODEST RETURN FLOW STARTING TO WORK IN. HIGHS
WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY TO THE MID 30S IN THE NORTH...TO THE MID 40S
IN THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

TO START OFF 0Z SATURDAY...EASTERN KY WILL FIND ITSELF IN A ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN...WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW TO OUR NE
EXITING OFF THE CANADIAN EAST COAST...AND A DEEPENING
SHORTWAVE/CLOSED LOW MOVING SW WARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS.
BETWEEN 0 AND 12Z SATURDAY...A SMALL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION...ABUNDANT MOISTURE FLOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE GULF
COAST AND UP THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ALL MODELS ARE CONTINUING
TO SHOW PRECIP POTENTIAL FROM ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER
AND POINTS NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...NONE OF THE MODELS /WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE LATEST GFS/ SHOW THE PRECIP ACTUALLY MAKING IT INTO
EASTERN KY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THIS IS CONTRARY TO SOME OF THE
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...BUT SEEMS TO CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLOWING TREND
AWAY FROM OUR CWA...SO WILL TRY TO FOLLOW.

BY SUNDAY...THIS SHORTWAVE WILL LOSE CONSIDERABLE STRENGTH...WHILE
THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS...ON THE OTHER
HAND...CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. ALL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO ARKLATEX
SATURDAY EVENING...AND THEN MAKE A QUICK SHIFT IN ITS DIRECTIONAL
TRACK...PULLING UP NE ACROSS KENTUCKY. AT THE SURFACE...THESE
LOWERED HEIGHTS WILL TRANSLATE TO A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...WITH ABUNDANT WAA ADVECTION AND MOISTURE FLOW OFF OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF THE LOW. UNLIKE SATURDAY WHERE THE MODELS
WERE UNDETERMINED ON IF PRECIP WOULD AFFECT THE AREA...IT IS A
DEFINITE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY REGION. IT IS A QUICK MOVER...SO ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS
AND ECMWF...PRECIP SHOULD MOVE INTO THE CWA BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z
SUNDAY...AND MOVE BACK OUT JUST AFTER 0Z MON. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE
TO SHOW AN EXCELLENT VEERING PATTERN WITH SRLY/WSW WINDS NEAR THE
SURFACE...AND GOOD SPEED SHEER IN THE LOW LEVELS AS WELL. AS A
RESULT...WILL KEEP THUNDER MENTIONED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
SUNDAY...BUT GIVEN THE STRONG LLVL CAP IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...WOULD BE A LITTLE MORE HESITANT TO GO ABOVE SLIGHT CHANCES
AT THIS POINT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE ALSO SHOWING A SECONDARY
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH AFTER THE INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE...WHICH
COULD BRING YET ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TO KY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE
ECMWF POINTS AT SOME LIGHT WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MOVING BACK INTO
NORTH CENTRAL KY...THE GFS DOES NOT. AFTER SOME COLLABORATING WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES...DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND KEEP OUR MODEL
BLEND...WHICH FEATURED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS LOCATION AND TIME
PERIOD. REGARDLESS...IF ANYTHING DOES OCCUR...IT WILL LIKELY BE VERY
LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES...AND SHOULDN/T CAUSE TOO MUCH IMPACT.
ASSUMING IT EVEN SHOWS UP IN THE NEXT MODEL RUNS. GIVEN THE BOUNCING
AROUND NATURE OF THE MODELS DURING THE END OF THE
EXTENDED...WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.

IT IS DURING THIS TIME /SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY/ THAT THE SHORTWAVE
ALOFT WILL MERGE WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM AND CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY.
GIVEN THE MERGER LOCATION DUE NORTH OF KY MONDAY NIGHT...IT IS
ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE COULD AFFECT KY AS
WE HEAD INTO MIDWEEK. UNFORTUNATELY MODELS DISAGREE ON THIS
SUBJECT...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING PRECIP...AND THE GFS NOT. WILL
CONTINUE TO GO WITH GENERAL CONSENSUS THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL BRING CEILINGS DOWN TO AROUND 4K FEET AGL
ACROSS THE AREA...ALONG WITH PRODUCING A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS...WITH GUSTS IN THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE
WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE GUSTINESS WILL
SUBSIDE TOWARDS DAWN...AND THEN COMMENCE ONCE AGAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE DIMINISHING BY DUSK. CEILINGS WILL SCATTER
OUT BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN








000
FXUS63 KJKL 200630 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
130 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 130 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO KEEP
THINGS MIXED IN THE VALLEYS. STILL BELIEVE READINGS WILL COOL OFF
TO CLOSE TO THE FORECAST LOWS BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...HOWEVER
WILL SWAY THE NEXT FEW HOURS OF TEMPERATURES WARMER TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE CURRENT TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1118 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING TO GUST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
COMBINED WITH CLOUD COVER IS REALLY KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO UP THE MORNING
LOW TEMPS AND KEEP WARMER TEMPS IN THE HOURLY GRIDS BEFORE DROPPING
THEM OFF JUST BEFORE DAWN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1002 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

AS FEARED...THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS AS OF 0240Z HAS THE COLD
FRONT JUST BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH LITTLE TO NO
RADAR RETURNS PRESENT. ANOTHER WEAK BAND IS DEVELOPING UP STREAM AND
LOOKS TO BE WITH THE FRONT. THIS MAY...WITH THE HELP OF THE TERRAIN
BE ENOUGH TO SPAWN A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. BASED ON TRENDS...A DRY
FORECAST MAY BE NEEDED FOR TONIGHT. WILL WAIT TO SEE IF THIS SECOND
BAND DEVELOPS INTO ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. THOUGH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ARE STILL IN THE FORECAST SO WILL LET THE CURRENT FORECAST RIDE FOR
NOW. THE ONLY OTHER ISSUE IS THE CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA. EVEN THE VALLEY TEMPS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO FALL DUE TO THE
CONTINUED WINDS AND CLOUD COVER. HAVE INGESTED THE LATEST OBS AND
SENT THE GIRDS TO THE NDFD SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 813 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

AS OF 0100Z LIGHT PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY DRY FRONT IS
APPROACHING THE CWA THIS EVENING. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO ALIGN WITH
THIS ARRIVING FEATURE BETTER. THERE IS A CONCERN HERE THAT THIS WILL
COMPLETELY DRY OUT THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT WILL GIVE IT SOME MORE TIME
TO DEVELOP. NEVERTHELESS...HAVE KEPT AROUND 20 AND BELOW POPS FOR
THIS EVENT WITH ACCUMULATION BEING A DUSTING AT MOST AND THIS WILL
MAINLY BE ON THE RIDGES. THERE WILL BE QUIET A BIT OF CLOUD COVER
TONIGHT WITH THIS FRONT THOUGH AND HAVE ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER HIGHER
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ALSO THERE ARE A FEW PLACES IN THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST WHERE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT.
SO HAVE PUT SOME RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT TEMPS IN THESE AREAS. THE OTHER
AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE THE SYSTEM DEVELOPING AND ARRIVING ON FRIDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A WARM NOSE WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVING IN AND WITH
SURFACE TEMPS QUITE COLD FRIDAY NIGHT AND EVEN INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...THERE LOOKS TO BE A FEW INSTANCES OF FREEZING RAIN AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE SLOWED
THE APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM INTO THE AREA WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND RIDGE AXIS NUDGING WESTWARD INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIP OUT OF THE AREA
UNTIL A BIT LATER IN THE MORNING WHEN SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE WARMER
AND THUS NO FREEZING PRECIP IN THE AREA. THE LONE INSTANCES TO THIS
WILL BE AS MOISTURE IS PULLED AROUND THE HIGH AND NORTHWARD INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY...PRECIP MAY DEVELOP INTO SOUTHERN OH BEFORE IT MOVES
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. THAT SAID...A BRIEF AND SMALL AREA OF FREEZING
PRECIP MAY SET UP IN NORTHERN FLEMING COUNTY. BECAUSE OF THIS...HAVE
PUT FREEZING RAIN INTO THE HWO FOR NORTH OF I-64. A NEW ZFP HAS BEEN
SENT OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

SHORT TERM MODELS...ALONG WITH REMAINING LARGER SCALE MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THU NIGHT. WILL SEE 500MB HEIGHT VALUES ON THE
REBOUND AS TROUGH AXIS OVER THE GREAT LAKES EXITS TO THE EAST. THIS
RESULTS IN WARMING OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN OVERALL...SO WE WILL NOT
QUITE SEE THE COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPS FOR THU MORNING THAT WE SAW
EARLIER TODAY. LOOKS TO BE ABOUT A TEN DEGREE WARM-UP FOR MORNING
MINS. HOWEVER...A FRONT WILL MAKE ITS PRESENCE KNOWN TONIGHT IN THE
FORM OF INCREASING CLOUDS AND ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS... MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA. MAIN CHANGE IN SHORT TERM WAS TO
BEEF UP THE CLOUDS IN NORTHERN COUNTIES...OTHERWISE FCST ON TRACK.
FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE EAST AS 5H TROUGH CONTINUES ITS
EXODUS FROM THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL
CONTINUE AN OVERALL DRYING TREND TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK. THEN SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FOR THE WEEKEND. FORECAST
AREA WILL SEE A FAIRLY DRAMATIC INCREASE IN MOISTURE INFLUX AS LOW
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...ALONG THE THE MID LEVELS ARE OPENED UP TO
GULF MOISTURE. MODELS HAVE A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON NEGATIVE TILT
TROUGH AND ATTENDANT CYCLONES THAT WILL BE WORKING OUT OF THE
ARK-TEX REGION AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY. INCREASED POPS
AND SLOW PROGRESSION DOWN JUST A TAD TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT MODEL
TRENDS SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. SFC LOW AND ATTENDANT TROUGH
TAKES ON A MORE BAROTROPIC CHARACTER OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS THE WORK
WEEK STARTS. THIS FEATURE WILL TAKE ITS SWEET TIME EXITING THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE US WITH A NORTHERN STREAM PIECE OF ENERGY
DROPPING DOWN ON BACKSIDE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BY THIS POINT...
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED FOR PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL BRING CEILINGS DOWN TO AROUND 4K FEET AGL
ACROSS THE AREA...ALONG WITH PRODUCING A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS...WITH GUSTS IN THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE
WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE GUSTINESS WILL
SUBSIDE TOWARDS DAWN...AND THEN COMMENCE ONCE AGAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE DIMINISHING BY DUSK. CEILINGS WILL SCATTER
OUT BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN








000
FXUS63 KJKL 200630 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
130 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 130 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO KEEP
THINGS MIXED IN THE VALLEYS. STILL BELIEVE READINGS WILL COOL OFF
TO CLOSE TO THE FORECAST LOWS BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...HOWEVER
WILL SWAY THE NEXT FEW HOURS OF TEMPERATURES WARMER TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE CURRENT TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1118 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING TO GUST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
COMBINED WITH CLOUD COVER IS REALLY KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO UP THE MORNING
LOW TEMPS AND KEEP WARMER TEMPS IN THE HOURLY GRIDS BEFORE DROPPING
THEM OFF JUST BEFORE DAWN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1002 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

AS FEARED...THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS AS OF 0240Z HAS THE COLD
FRONT JUST BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH LITTLE TO NO
RADAR RETURNS PRESENT. ANOTHER WEAK BAND IS DEVELOPING UP STREAM AND
LOOKS TO BE WITH THE FRONT. THIS MAY...WITH THE HELP OF THE TERRAIN
BE ENOUGH TO SPAWN A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. BASED ON TRENDS...A DRY
FORECAST MAY BE NEEDED FOR TONIGHT. WILL WAIT TO SEE IF THIS SECOND
BAND DEVELOPS INTO ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. THOUGH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ARE STILL IN THE FORECAST SO WILL LET THE CURRENT FORECAST RIDE FOR
NOW. THE ONLY OTHER ISSUE IS THE CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA. EVEN THE VALLEY TEMPS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO FALL DUE TO THE
CONTINUED WINDS AND CLOUD COVER. HAVE INGESTED THE LATEST OBS AND
SENT THE GIRDS TO THE NDFD SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 813 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

AS OF 0100Z LIGHT PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY DRY FRONT IS
APPROACHING THE CWA THIS EVENING. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO ALIGN WITH
THIS ARRIVING FEATURE BETTER. THERE IS A CONCERN HERE THAT THIS WILL
COMPLETELY DRY OUT THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT WILL GIVE IT SOME MORE TIME
TO DEVELOP. NEVERTHELESS...HAVE KEPT AROUND 20 AND BELOW POPS FOR
THIS EVENT WITH ACCUMULATION BEING A DUSTING AT MOST AND THIS WILL
MAINLY BE ON THE RIDGES. THERE WILL BE QUIET A BIT OF CLOUD COVER
TONIGHT WITH THIS FRONT THOUGH AND HAVE ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER HIGHER
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ALSO THERE ARE A FEW PLACES IN THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST WHERE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT.
SO HAVE PUT SOME RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT TEMPS IN THESE AREAS. THE OTHER
AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE THE SYSTEM DEVELOPING AND ARRIVING ON FRIDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A WARM NOSE WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVING IN AND WITH
SURFACE TEMPS QUITE COLD FRIDAY NIGHT AND EVEN INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...THERE LOOKS TO BE A FEW INSTANCES OF FREEZING RAIN AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE SLOWED
THE APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM INTO THE AREA WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND RIDGE AXIS NUDGING WESTWARD INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIP OUT OF THE AREA
UNTIL A BIT LATER IN THE MORNING WHEN SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE WARMER
AND THUS NO FREEZING PRECIP IN THE AREA. THE LONE INSTANCES TO THIS
WILL BE AS MOISTURE IS PULLED AROUND THE HIGH AND NORTHWARD INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY...PRECIP MAY DEVELOP INTO SOUTHERN OH BEFORE IT MOVES
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. THAT SAID...A BRIEF AND SMALL AREA OF FREEZING
PRECIP MAY SET UP IN NORTHERN FLEMING COUNTY. BECAUSE OF THIS...HAVE
PUT FREEZING RAIN INTO THE HWO FOR NORTH OF I-64. A NEW ZFP HAS BEEN
SENT OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

SHORT TERM MODELS...ALONG WITH REMAINING LARGER SCALE MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THU NIGHT. WILL SEE 500MB HEIGHT VALUES ON THE
REBOUND AS TROUGH AXIS OVER THE GREAT LAKES EXITS TO THE EAST. THIS
RESULTS IN WARMING OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN OVERALL...SO WE WILL NOT
QUITE SEE THE COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPS FOR THU MORNING THAT WE SAW
EARLIER TODAY. LOOKS TO BE ABOUT A TEN DEGREE WARM-UP FOR MORNING
MINS. HOWEVER...A FRONT WILL MAKE ITS PRESENCE KNOWN TONIGHT IN THE
FORM OF INCREASING CLOUDS AND ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS... MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA. MAIN CHANGE IN SHORT TERM WAS TO
BEEF UP THE CLOUDS IN NORTHERN COUNTIES...OTHERWISE FCST ON TRACK.
FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE EAST AS 5H TROUGH CONTINUES ITS
EXODUS FROM THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL
CONTINUE AN OVERALL DRYING TREND TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK. THEN SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FOR THE WEEKEND. FORECAST
AREA WILL SEE A FAIRLY DRAMATIC INCREASE IN MOISTURE INFLUX AS LOW
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...ALONG THE THE MID LEVELS ARE OPENED UP TO
GULF MOISTURE. MODELS HAVE A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON NEGATIVE TILT
TROUGH AND ATTENDANT CYCLONES THAT WILL BE WORKING OUT OF THE
ARK-TEX REGION AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY. INCREASED POPS
AND SLOW PROGRESSION DOWN JUST A TAD TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT MODEL
TRENDS SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. SFC LOW AND ATTENDANT TROUGH
TAKES ON A MORE BAROTROPIC CHARACTER OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS THE WORK
WEEK STARTS. THIS FEATURE WILL TAKE ITS SWEET TIME EXITING THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE US WITH A NORTHERN STREAM PIECE OF ENERGY
DROPPING DOWN ON BACKSIDE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BY THIS POINT...
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED FOR PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL BRING CEILINGS DOWN TO AROUND 4K FEET AGL
ACROSS THE AREA...ALONG WITH PRODUCING A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS...WITH GUSTS IN THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE
WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE GUSTINESS WILL
SUBSIDE TOWARDS DAWN...AND THEN COMMENCE ONCE AGAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE DIMINISHING BY DUSK. CEILINGS WILL SCATTER
OUT BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN









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