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000
FXUS63 KJKL 211922
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
322 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE AREA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH
IS OVER LAKE EIRE. A SURFACE FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. IT HAS NOT AMOUNTED TO MUCH MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT AND CLOUDS.
THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN OHIO
AND THEN WEST VIRGINA. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE
OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AND
GENERALLY COOL AND DAMP WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES AT TIMES. STILL
THINK THERE WILL BE PATCHY FROST IN SOME OF THE ISOLATED
VALLEYS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING WEST OF A LINE FROM FLEMING TO
BELL COUNTY. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS COMPLICATED BY THE CLOUDS
AND THE WINDS. IF THE CLOUDS DO NOT CLEAR OUT AT ALL...THEN THE FROST
IS VERY UNLIKELY. ALSO...THE WINDS NEED TO DIE DOWN. THERE IS SOME
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS THE EXTENT OF THE CLOUDINESS OVER THE
NEXT 36 HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A FAIRLY QUIET EXTENDED PERIOD...THUS
CONFIDENCE IS DECENT WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. AS A QUICK
SUMMARY...LOOKS LIKE THIS FORECAST WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO NEAR NORMAL...THAN
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THE PERIOD WILL START AS A STRONG RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHES ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY...PROVIDING PLENTY OF CLEAR SKIES AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS BY SATURDAY WILL CLIMB BACK TO AROUND 60. A FAST
MOVING MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING SOUTHEAST FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE STRENGTH AND SHARPNESS OF
THE TROUGH WITH THE ECMWF CONTINUING TO BE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN
ITS COUNTERPARTS. FOR NOW...OPTING TO STAY WITH THE DRY FORECAST AND
WAIT FOR SOME BETTER AGREEMENT. MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED...SO ANY
PRECIPITATION COULD BE MORE IN THE FORM OF SPRINKLES. THIS WAVE MAY
PRODUCE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS
KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE IN CHECK. HOWEVER...AS THE WAVE
EXITS THIS WEEKEND...STRONG RIDGING WILL START ITS MARCH INTO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY NEXT MONDAY WE COULD SEE TEMPERATURES
PUSHING THE UPPER 70S AND MAYBE EVEN CLOSE TO 80.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE AREA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH
IS OVER LAKE EIRE. A SURFACE FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. IT HAS NOT AMOUNTED TO MUCH MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT AND CLOUDS.
THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN OHIO
AND THEN WEST VIRGINA. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE
OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA GENERALLY CLOUDY. THE
CLOUDS WILL TEND TO BE LOWER AT NIGHT AND HIGHER DURING THE DAY.
THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER WILL
TEND TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE...SO THE FORECAST CERTAINTY IS LOWER
THAN AVERAGE TODAY. THINKING WAS THE LOZ AND SME WOULD SEE THE MOST
CLEARING AND BE MORE LIKELY TO SEE SOME FOG AND MVFR. JKL AND SJS
WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO SEE DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES AND MVFR CIGS AS THEY
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW CENTER. EXPECT VFR AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JJ








000
FXUS63 KJKL 211813
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
213 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE AREA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH
IS OVER LAKE EIRE. A SURFACE FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. IT HAS NOT AMOUNTED TO MUCH MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT AND CLOUDS.
THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN OHIO
AND THEN WEST VIRGINA. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE
OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AND
GENERALLY COOL AND DAMP WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES AT TIMES. STILL
THINK THERE WILL BE PATCHY FROST IN SOME OF THE ISOLATED
VALLEYS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING WEST OF A LINE FROM FLEMING TO
BELL COUNTY. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS COMPLICATED BY THE CLOUDS
AND THE WINDS. IF THE CLOUDS DO NOT CLEAR OUT AT ALL...THEN THE FROST
IS VERY UNLIKELY. ALSO...THE WINDS NEED TO DIE DOWN. THERE IS SOME
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS THE EXTENT OF THE CLOUDINESS OVER THE
NEXT 36 HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL KEEP COOLER THAN
NORMAL CONDITIONS AROUND FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AS THE
TROUGHING SLOWLY DEPARTS TO THE EAST...HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND
TOWARDS WEEKS END...WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING TO MODERATE. EVEN
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS STRONG RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

AS FOR THE DETAILS...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HOLD ON WELL INTO WEDNESDAY
AS NORTHERLY WINDS LOCK IN THE LOW STRATUS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING...BUT
OPTING TO LEAVE IT MAINLY DRY AT THIS TIME. AS THE TROUGHING PUSHES
EAST...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STILL SOME QUESTION ON HOW FAST THIS
CLEARING WILL REACH THE FAR EAST AS SOMETIMES IT CAN BE VERY
STUBBORN TO DEPART. GIVEN THE CHILLY CONDITIONS IN PLACE...IF ENOUGH
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR A
BIT MORE FROST THAN WE HAVE SEEN THUS FAR THIS SEASON.
HOWEVER...SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES DO NOT LOOK LIKELY AT THIS
TIME.  WHATEVER CLOUD COVER CAN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD
QUICKLY BE ON THE WAY OUT...AS DRY AIR TAKES OVER...ALLOWING FOR
SUNNY SKIES. WITH THE RIDGING VERY SLOW TO MOVE IN LATE IN THE
WEEK...MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FAST MOVING VORT
MAX TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE WEAKENING WITH TIME...BUT GIVEN HOW
THINGS HAVE GONE LATELY...WOULD BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES PUSH ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS WAVE. FOR
NOW...OPTING TO STICK WITH SOME SPRINKLES WITH THIS WAVE AS MOISTURE
SEEMS RATHER LIMITED. BY SATURDAY...RIDGING WILL SURGE
EAST...ALLOWING FOR A WARM AND DRY WEEKEND WITH HIGHS JUMPING BACK
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE AREA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH
IS OVER LAKE EIRE. A SURFACE FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. IT HAS NOT AMOUNTED TO MUCH MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT AND CLOUDS.
THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN OHIO
AND THEN WEST VIRGINA. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE
OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA GENERALLY CLOUDY. THE
CLOUDS WILL TEND TO BE LOWER AT NIGHT AND HIGHER DURING THE DAY.
THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER WILL
TEND TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE...SO THE FORECAST CERTAINTY IS LOWER
THAN AVERAGE TODAY. THINKING WAS THE LOZ AND SME WOULD SEE THE MOST
CLEARING AND BE MORE LIKELY TO SEE SOME FOG AND MVFR. JKL AND SJS
WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO SEE DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES AND MVFR CIGS AS THEY
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW CENTER. EXPECT VFR AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JJ








000
FXUS63 KJKL 211104
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
704 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FORECAST SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY WELL ON TRACK AS RAIN AND COLD FRONT HAVE NOW
EXITED TO OUR EAST...AND THE NEXT BATCH OF CLOUDS ARE ROLLING IN
RESPONSE TO WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY SITTING OVER THE MID/UPPER ATLANTIC COAST. WENT AHEAD AND
KEPT 30 POPS IN THE FAR EAST WHERE UPSLOPE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
LEAD TO THE REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY...THOUGH SO FAR
WE ARE IN A BIT OF A BREAK FROM THE ACTION. THE INCOMING CIG HEIGHTS
ARE VARYING FROM MVFR TO VFR...SO WILL BE INTERESTED TO SEE HOW THEY
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT EASTERN KY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE REGION...PATCHY DENSE VALLEY FOG HAS BEEN REPORTED.
UPDATED THE ONGOING WEATHER GRIDS TO ACCOMMODATE THIS THROUGH EARLY
MORNING. HOPEFULLY THE PUSH OF INCOMING CLOUD COVER AND DAYTIME
HEATING WILL BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOG TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. IN THE MEANTIME...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED AN SPS GOOD UNTIL
9AM/13Z FOR THE PATCHY DENSE FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT LAST NIGHT...MUCH OF THE
REGION SHOULD EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE DAY TODAY UNDER
GENERALLY NW FLOW. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR EAST...WHICH WILL
SEE ENOUGH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY SITTING JUST TO OUR NE...THAT UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
SCT SHOWER CHANCES BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE MOISTURE AND FORCING
WILL BE WEAK...SO RAIN ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT...IF NOT
INSIGNIFICANT. THE MOISTURE WILL ALSO LEAD TO CONTINUED CLOUD COVER
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA AS WELL...WITH ONLY THE FAR SW
COUNTIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLEAR TODAY AND TONIGHT. BY
TOMORROW...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TREK SLIGHTLY FARTHER
EASTWARD...JUST ENOUGH TO PULL ANY FURTHER MOISTURE POTENTIAL OUT OF
THE FAR EAST.

IN ADDITION TO THE MOISTURE PULL ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW...KY
WILL ALSO FIND ITSELF UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG NORTH TO SOUTH
ORIENTED UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK...PULLING STRONG NRLY COOLER AIR
FROM CANADA. THIS JET STREAK WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST FOLLOWING
THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE PATTERN. JKL CAN EXPECT TO FIND ITSELF
UNDER THE BEST INFLUENCE OF THIS JET STREAK OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
INTO THE DAY TOMORROW. SO ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
CLOUD COVER ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION...THE STRONG PULL OF
CANADIAN AIR WILL STILL PLAY A LARGE INFLUENCE IN THE OVERNIGHT
TEMPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE UPPER
30S...ESPECIALLY IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
HAVE A HARD TIME REBOUNDING TOMORROW. LOW TO MID 50S ARE TO BE
EXPECTED FOR HIGHS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TREK EASTWARD TOMORROW...THE LOW AND WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF EASTERN KY...WITH
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED TO ENSUE AS WE HEAD INTO LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A WEAKENING RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BRINGING DRY WX AND DECREASING
CLOUDS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND PASS
OVER EARLY ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...
NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS IS EXPECTED. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ON FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME RUNS OF THE ECMWF GENERATE
LIGHT PRECIP WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT FEATURE...BUT NOT CONSISTENTLY...
AND THE GFS IS DRY. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST AT THIS
POINT.

AFTER FRIDAY NIGHT...A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS...PASSING KY ON SUNDAY AND REACHING THE EAST
COAST ON MONDAY. IT WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 702 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN KY THIS
MORNING...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO A MORE NW DIRECTION. DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENTS BETWEEN THE EXITING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO
OUR WEST WILL LEAD TO HEIGHTENED WIND SPEEDS OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER LEVELS. AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
WILL ORIENT ITSELF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FROM CANADA THROUGH
KY...MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE...AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE
EXITING LOW /CURRENTLY SITTING OVER THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
APPALACHIAN REGION/...TO CONTINUE TO PULL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
REGION. CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY LIFT TO VFR DURING THE DAY...AFTER THE
DISSIPATION OF MORNING FOG...AND THEN FALL AGAIN OVERNIGHT...MOST
LIKELY TO MVFR...THOUGH SOME LOWER CIGS MAY BE POSSIBLE BY LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD AROUND 24 HOURS FROM NOW. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY...JUST
STUCK WITH MENTION OF MVFR AT THIS TIME. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL
ALSO LEAD TO UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE FAR EAST...RESULTING IN RAIN SHOWER
CHANCES TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECT THAT KSJS SHOULD BE THE ONLY TAF
SITE WHICH WILL BE AFFECTED. AND ANY SHOWERS THAT DO FORM ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND CAUSE MINIMAL IMPACTS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JMW









000
FXUS63 KJKL 211104
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
704 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FORECAST SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY WELL ON TRACK AS RAIN AND COLD FRONT HAVE NOW
EXITED TO OUR EAST...AND THE NEXT BATCH OF CLOUDS ARE ROLLING IN
RESPONSE TO WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY SITTING OVER THE MID/UPPER ATLANTIC COAST. WENT AHEAD AND
KEPT 30 POPS IN THE FAR EAST WHERE UPSLOPE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
LEAD TO THE REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY...THOUGH SO FAR
WE ARE IN A BIT OF A BREAK FROM THE ACTION. THE INCOMING CIG HEIGHTS
ARE VARYING FROM MVFR TO VFR...SO WILL BE INTERESTED TO SEE HOW THEY
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT EASTERN KY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE REGION...PATCHY DENSE VALLEY FOG HAS BEEN REPORTED.
UPDATED THE ONGOING WEATHER GRIDS TO ACCOMMODATE THIS THROUGH EARLY
MORNING. HOPEFULLY THE PUSH OF INCOMING CLOUD COVER AND DAYTIME
HEATING WILL BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOG TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. IN THE MEANTIME...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED AN SPS GOOD UNTIL
9AM/13Z FOR THE PATCHY DENSE FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT LAST NIGHT...MUCH OF THE
REGION SHOULD EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE DAY TODAY UNDER
GENERALLY NW FLOW. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR EAST...WHICH WILL
SEE ENOUGH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY SITTING JUST TO OUR NE...THAT UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
SCT SHOWER CHANCES BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE MOISTURE AND FORCING
WILL BE WEAK...SO RAIN ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT...IF NOT
INSIGNIFICANT. THE MOISTURE WILL ALSO LEAD TO CONTINUED CLOUD COVER
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA AS WELL...WITH ONLY THE FAR SW
COUNTIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLEAR TODAY AND TONIGHT. BY
TOMORROW...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TREK SLIGHTLY FARTHER
EASTWARD...JUST ENOUGH TO PULL ANY FURTHER MOISTURE POTENTIAL OUT OF
THE FAR EAST.

IN ADDITION TO THE MOISTURE PULL ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW...KY
WILL ALSO FIND ITSELF UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG NORTH TO SOUTH
ORIENTED UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK...PULLING STRONG NRLY COOLER AIR
FROM CANADA. THIS JET STREAK WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST FOLLOWING
THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE PATTERN. JKL CAN EXPECT TO FIND ITSELF
UNDER THE BEST INFLUENCE OF THIS JET STREAK OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
INTO THE DAY TOMORROW. SO ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
CLOUD COVER ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION...THE STRONG PULL OF
CANADIAN AIR WILL STILL PLAY A LARGE INFLUENCE IN THE OVERNIGHT
TEMPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE UPPER
30S...ESPECIALLY IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
HAVE A HARD TIME REBOUNDING TOMORROW. LOW TO MID 50S ARE TO BE
EXPECTED FOR HIGHS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TREK EASTWARD TOMORROW...THE LOW AND WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF EASTERN KY...WITH
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED TO ENSUE AS WE HEAD INTO LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A WEAKENING RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BRINGING DRY WX AND DECREASING
CLOUDS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND PASS
OVER EARLY ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...
NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS IS EXPECTED. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ON FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME RUNS OF THE ECMWF GENERATE
LIGHT PRECIP WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT FEATURE...BUT NOT CONSISTENTLY...
AND THE GFS IS DRY. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST AT THIS
POINT.

AFTER FRIDAY NIGHT...A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS...PASSING KY ON SUNDAY AND REACHING THE EAST
COAST ON MONDAY. IT WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 702 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN KY THIS
MORNING...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO A MORE NW DIRECTION. DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENTS BETWEEN THE EXITING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO
OUR WEST WILL LEAD TO HEIGHTENED WIND SPEEDS OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER LEVELS. AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
WILL ORIENT ITSELF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FROM CANADA THROUGH
KY...MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE...AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE
EXITING LOW /CURRENTLY SITTING OVER THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
APPALACHIAN REGION/...TO CONTINUE TO PULL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
REGION. CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY LIFT TO VFR DURING THE DAY...AFTER THE
DISSIPATION OF MORNING FOG...AND THEN FALL AGAIN OVERNIGHT...MOST
LIKELY TO MVFR...THOUGH SOME LOWER CIGS MAY BE POSSIBLE BY LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD AROUND 24 HOURS FROM NOW. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY...JUST
STUCK WITH MENTION OF MVFR AT THIS TIME. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL
ALSO LEAD TO UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE FAR EAST...RESULTING IN RAIN SHOWER
CHANCES TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECT THAT KSJS SHOULD BE THE ONLY TAF
SITE WHICH WILL BE AFFECTED. AND ANY SHOWERS THAT DO FORM ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND CAUSE MINIMAL IMPACTS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JMW










000
FXUS63 KJKL 211104
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
704 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FORECAST SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY WELL ON TRACK AS RAIN AND COLD FRONT HAVE NOW
EXITED TO OUR EAST...AND THE NEXT BATCH OF CLOUDS ARE ROLLING IN
RESPONSE TO WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY SITTING OVER THE MID/UPPER ATLANTIC COAST. WENT AHEAD AND
KEPT 30 POPS IN THE FAR EAST WHERE UPSLOPE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
LEAD TO THE REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY...THOUGH SO FAR
WE ARE IN A BIT OF A BREAK FROM THE ACTION. THE INCOMING CIG HEIGHTS
ARE VARYING FROM MVFR TO VFR...SO WILL BE INTERESTED TO SEE HOW THEY
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT EASTERN KY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE REGION...PATCHY DENSE VALLEY FOG HAS BEEN REPORTED.
UPDATED THE ONGOING WEATHER GRIDS TO ACCOMMODATE THIS THROUGH EARLY
MORNING. HOPEFULLY THE PUSH OF INCOMING CLOUD COVER AND DAYTIME
HEATING WILL BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOG TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. IN THE MEANTIME...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED AN SPS GOOD UNTIL
9AM/13Z FOR THE PATCHY DENSE FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT LAST NIGHT...MUCH OF THE
REGION SHOULD EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE DAY TODAY UNDER
GENERALLY NW FLOW. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR EAST...WHICH WILL
SEE ENOUGH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY SITTING JUST TO OUR NE...THAT UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
SCT SHOWER CHANCES BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE MOISTURE AND FORCING
WILL BE WEAK...SO RAIN ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT...IF NOT
INSIGNIFICANT. THE MOISTURE WILL ALSO LEAD TO CONTINUED CLOUD COVER
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA AS WELL...WITH ONLY THE FAR SW
COUNTIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLEAR TODAY AND TONIGHT. BY
TOMORROW...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TREK SLIGHTLY FARTHER
EASTWARD...JUST ENOUGH TO PULL ANY FURTHER MOISTURE POTENTIAL OUT OF
THE FAR EAST.

IN ADDITION TO THE MOISTURE PULL ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW...KY
WILL ALSO FIND ITSELF UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG NORTH TO SOUTH
ORIENTED UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK...PULLING STRONG NRLY COOLER AIR
FROM CANADA. THIS JET STREAK WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST FOLLOWING
THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE PATTERN. JKL CAN EXPECT TO FIND ITSELF
UNDER THE BEST INFLUENCE OF THIS JET STREAK OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
INTO THE DAY TOMORROW. SO ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
CLOUD COVER ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION...THE STRONG PULL OF
CANADIAN AIR WILL STILL PLAY A LARGE INFLUENCE IN THE OVERNIGHT
TEMPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE UPPER
30S...ESPECIALLY IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
HAVE A HARD TIME REBOUNDING TOMORROW. LOW TO MID 50S ARE TO BE
EXPECTED FOR HIGHS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TREK EASTWARD TOMORROW...THE LOW AND WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF EASTERN KY...WITH
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED TO ENSUE AS WE HEAD INTO LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A WEAKENING RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BRINGING DRY WX AND DECREASING
CLOUDS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND PASS
OVER EARLY ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...
NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS IS EXPECTED. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ON FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME RUNS OF THE ECMWF GENERATE
LIGHT PRECIP WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT FEATURE...BUT NOT CONSISTENTLY...
AND THE GFS IS DRY. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST AT THIS
POINT.

AFTER FRIDAY NIGHT...A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS...PASSING KY ON SUNDAY AND REACHING THE EAST
COAST ON MONDAY. IT WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 702 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN KY THIS
MORNING...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO A MORE NW DIRECTION. DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENTS BETWEEN THE EXITING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO
OUR WEST WILL LEAD TO HEIGHTENED WIND SPEEDS OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER LEVELS. AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
WILL ORIENT ITSELF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FROM CANADA THROUGH
KY...MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE...AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE
EXITING LOW /CURRENTLY SITTING OVER THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
APPALACHIAN REGION/...TO CONTINUE TO PULL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
REGION. CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY LIFT TO VFR DURING THE DAY...AFTER THE
DISSIPATION OF MORNING FOG...AND THEN FALL AGAIN OVERNIGHT...MOST
LIKELY TO MVFR...THOUGH SOME LOWER CIGS MAY BE POSSIBLE BY LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD AROUND 24 HOURS FROM NOW. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY...JUST
STUCK WITH MENTION OF MVFR AT THIS TIME. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL
ALSO LEAD TO UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE FAR EAST...RESULTING IN RAIN SHOWER
CHANCES TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECT THAT KSJS SHOULD BE THE ONLY TAF
SITE WHICH WILL BE AFFECTED. AND ANY SHOWERS THAT DO FORM ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND CAUSE MINIMAL IMPACTS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JMW










000
FXUS63 KJKL 211104
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
704 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FORECAST SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY WELL ON TRACK AS RAIN AND COLD FRONT HAVE NOW
EXITED TO OUR EAST...AND THE NEXT BATCH OF CLOUDS ARE ROLLING IN
RESPONSE TO WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY SITTING OVER THE MID/UPPER ATLANTIC COAST. WENT AHEAD AND
KEPT 30 POPS IN THE FAR EAST WHERE UPSLOPE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
LEAD TO THE REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY...THOUGH SO FAR
WE ARE IN A BIT OF A BREAK FROM THE ACTION. THE INCOMING CIG HEIGHTS
ARE VARYING FROM MVFR TO VFR...SO WILL BE INTERESTED TO SEE HOW THEY
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT EASTERN KY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE REGION...PATCHY DENSE VALLEY FOG HAS BEEN REPORTED.
UPDATED THE ONGOING WEATHER GRIDS TO ACCOMMODATE THIS THROUGH EARLY
MORNING. HOPEFULLY THE PUSH OF INCOMING CLOUD COVER AND DAYTIME
HEATING WILL BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOG TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. IN THE MEANTIME...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED AN SPS GOOD UNTIL
9AM/13Z FOR THE PATCHY DENSE FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT LAST NIGHT...MUCH OF THE
REGION SHOULD EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE DAY TODAY UNDER
GENERALLY NW FLOW. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR EAST...WHICH WILL
SEE ENOUGH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY SITTING JUST TO OUR NE...THAT UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
SCT SHOWER CHANCES BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE MOISTURE AND FORCING
WILL BE WEAK...SO RAIN ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT...IF NOT
INSIGNIFICANT. THE MOISTURE WILL ALSO LEAD TO CONTINUED CLOUD COVER
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA AS WELL...WITH ONLY THE FAR SW
COUNTIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLEAR TODAY AND TONIGHT. BY
TOMORROW...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TREK SLIGHTLY FARTHER
EASTWARD...JUST ENOUGH TO PULL ANY FURTHER MOISTURE POTENTIAL OUT OF
THE FAR EAST.

IN ADDITION TO THE MOISTURE PULL ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW...KY
WILL ALSO FIND ITSELF UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG NORTH TO SOUTH
ORIENTED UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK...PULLING STRONG NRLY COOLER AIR
FROM CANADA. THIS JET STREAK WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST FOLLOWING
THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE PATTERN. JKL CAN EXPECT TO FIND ITSELF
UNDER THE BEST INFLUENCE OF THIS JET STREAK OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
INTO THE DAY TOMORROW. SO ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
CLOUD COVER ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION...THE STRONG PULL OF
CANADIAN AIR WILL STILL PLAY A LARGE INFLUENCE IN THE OVERNIGHT
TEMPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE UPPER
30S...ESPECIALLY IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
HAVE A HARD TIME REBOUNDING TOMORROW. LOW TO MID 50S ARE TO BE
EXPECTED FOR HIGHS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TREK EASTWARD TOMORROW...THE LOW AND WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF EASTERN KY...WITH
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED TO ENSUE AS WE HEAD INTO LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A WEAKENING RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BRINGING DRY WX AND DECREASING
CLOUDS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND PASS
OVER EARLY ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...
NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS IS EXPECTED. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ON FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME RUNS OF THE ECMWF GENERATE
LIGHT PRECIP WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT FEATURE...BUT NOT CONSISTENTLY...
AND THE GFS IS DRY. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST AT THIS
POINT.

AFTER FRIDAY NIGHT...A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS...PASSING KY ON SUNDAY AND REACHING THE EAST
COAST ON MONDAY. IT WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 702 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN KY THIS
MORNING...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO A MORE NW DIRECTION. DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENTS BETWEEN THE EXITING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO
OUR WEST WILL LEAD TO HEIGHTENED WIND SPEEDS OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER LEVELS. AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
WILL ORIENT ITSELF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FROM CANADA THROUGH
KY...MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE...AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE
EXITING LOW /CURRENTLY SITTING OVER THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
APPALACHIAN REGION/...TO CONTINUE TO PULL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
REGION. CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY LIFT TO VFR DURING THE DAY...AFTER THE
DISSIPATION OF MORNING FOG...AND THEN FALL AGAIN OVERNIGHT...MOST
LIKELY TO MVFR...THOUGH SOME LOWER CIGS MAY BE POSSIBLE BY LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD AROUND 24 HOURS FROM NOW. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY...JUST
STUCK WITH MENTION OF MVFR AT THIS TIME. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL
ALSO LEAD TO UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE FAR EAST...RESULTING IN RAIN SHOWER
CHANCES TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECT THAT KSJS SHOULD BE THE ONLY TAF
SITE WHICH WILL BE AFFECTED. AND ANY SHOWERS THAT DO FORM ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND CAUSE MINIMAL IMPACTS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JMW









000
FXUS63 KJKL 210830
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
430 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT LAST NIGHT...MUCH OF THE
REGION SHOULD EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE DAY TODAY UNDER
GENERALLY NW FLOW. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR EAST...WHICH WILL
SEE ENOUGH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY SITTING JUST TO OUR NE...THAT UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
SCT SHOWER CHANCES BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE MOISTURE AND FORCING
WILL BE WEAK...SO RAIN ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT...IF NOT
INSIGNIFICANT. THE MOISTURE WILL ALSO LEAD TO CONTINUED CLOUD COVER
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA AS WELL...WITH ONLY THE FAR SW
COUNTIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLEAR TODAY AND TONIGHT. BY
TOMORROW...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TREK SLIGHTLY FARTHER
EASTWARD...JUST ENOUGH TO PULL ANY FURTHER MOISTURE POTENTIAL OUT OF
THE FAR EAST.

IN ADDITION TO THE MOISTURE PULL ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW...KY
WILL ALSO FIND ITSELF UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG NORTH TO SOUTH
ORIENTED UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK...PULLING STRONG NRLY COOLER AIR
FROM CANADA. THIS JET STREAK WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST FOLLOWING
THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE PATTERN. JKL CAN EXPECT TO FIND ITSELF
UNDER THE BEST INFLUENCE OF THIS JET STREAK OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
INTO THE DAY TOMORROW. SO ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
CLOUD COVER ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION...THE STRONG PULL OF
CANADIAN AIR WILL STILL PLAY A LARGE INFLUENCE IN THE OVERNIGHT
TEMPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE UPPER
30S...ESPECIALLY IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
HAVE A HARD TIME REBOUNDING TOMORROW. LOW TO MID 50S ARE TO BE
EXPECTED FOR HIGHS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TREK EASTWARD TOMORROW...THE LOW AND WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF EASTERN KY...WITH
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED TO ENSUE AS WE HEAD INTO LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A WEAKENING RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BRINGING DRY WX AND DECREASING
CLOUDS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND PASS
OVER EARLY ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...
NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS IS EXPECTED. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ON FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME RUNS OF THE ECMWF GENERATE
LIGHT PRECIP WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT FEATURE...BUT NOT CONSISTENTLY...
AND THE GFS IS DRY. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST AT THIS
POINT.

AFTER FRIDAY NIGHT...A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS...PASSING KY ON SUNDAY AND REACHING THE EAST
COAST ON MONDAY. IT WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 159 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY TRAVERSING EASTERN KY HAS LED TO A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THESE SHOWERS ARE NOW MOVING
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE...WITH VCSH STILL
POSSIBLE AT KJKL AND KSJS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE CHALLENGE
OF THIS FORECAST WAS TO PUT TOGETHER AN IDEA OF WHAT WILL OCCUR FOR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NW BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT SO FAR MUCH OF THE AREA IS CLOUD FREE. THIS
MAY ALLOW SOME MORE PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP IN PLACES...THOUGH MOST
OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS LARGE ENOUGH TO LEAVE
OUT MENTION OF FOG AT ALL TAF SITES BUT KSME. EVEN HERE...ONLY WENT
MVFR GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF FOG TO OCCUR. UPSTREAM...A DECK OF
CLOUDS IS NEARING THE OHIO RIVER AND MOVING TOWARDS EASTERN KY AS A
RESULT OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW OFF TO OUR NE. EXPECT
THE CIG HEIGHTS TO LOWER SOMEWHAT AS THEY REACH THE TAF SITES
/GENERALLY BY AROUND 12Z/...WITH MVFR TO LOW END VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. THESE CLOUDS...AS WELL AS SOME TRAPPED MOISTURE/BR...SHOULD
FINALLY LIFT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JMW








000
FXUS63 KJKL 210830
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
430 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT LAST NIGHT...MUCH OF THE
REGION SHOULD EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE DAY TODAY UNDER
GENERALLY NW FLOW. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR EAST...WHICH WILL
SEE ENOUGH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY SITTING JUST TO OUR NE...THAT UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
SCT SHOWER CHANCES BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE MOISTURE AND FORCING
WILL BE WEAK...SO RAIN ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT...IF NOT
INSIGNIFICANT. THE MOISTURE WILL ALSO LEAD TO CONTINUED CLOUD COVER
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA AS WELL...WITH ONLY THE FAR SW
COUNTIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLEAR TODAY AND TONIGHT. BY
TOMORROW...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TREK SLIGHTLY FARTHER
EASTWARD...JUST ENOUGH TO PULL ANY FURTHER MOISTURE POTENTIAL OUT OF
THE FAR EAST.

IN ADDITION TO THE MOISTURE PULL ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW...KY
WILL ALSO FIND ITSELF UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG NORTH TO SOUTH
ORIENTED UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK...PULLING STRONG NRLY COOLER AIR
FROM CANADA. THIS JET STREAK WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST FOLLOWING
THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE PATTERN. JKL CAN EXPECT TO FIND ITSELF
UNDER THE BEST INFLUENCE OF THIS JET STREAK OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
INTO THE DAY TOMORROW. SO ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
CLOUD COVER ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION...THE STRONG PULL OF
CANADIAN AIR WILL STILL PLAY A LARGE INFLUENCE IN THE OVERNIGHT
TEMPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE UPPER
30S...ESPECIALLY IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
HAVE A HARD TIME REBOUNDING TOMORROW. LOW TO MID 50S ARE TO BE
EXPECTED FOR HIGHS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TREK EASTWARD TOMORROW...THE LOW AND WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF EASTERN KY...WITH
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED TO ENSUE AS WE HEAD INTO LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A WEAKENING RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BRINGING DRY WX AND DECREASING
CLOUDS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND PASS
OVER EARLY ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...
NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS IS EXPECTED. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ON FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME RUNS OF THE ECMWF GENERATE
LIGHT PRECIP WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT FEATURE...BUT NOT CONSISTENTLY...
AND THE GFS IS DRY. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST AT THIS
POINT.

AFTER FRIDAY NIGHT...A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS...PASSING KY ON SUNDAY AND REACHING THE EAST
COAST ON MONDAY. IT WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 159 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY TRAVERSING EASTERN KY HAS LED TO A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THESE SHOWERS ARE NOW MOVING
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE...WITH VCSH STILL
POSSIBLE AT KJKL AND KSJS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE CHALLENGE
OF THIS FORECAST WAS TO PUT TOGETHER AN IDEA OF WHAT WILL OCCUR FOR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NW BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT SO FAR MUCH OF THE AREA IS CLOUD FREE. THIS
MAY ALLOW SOME MORE PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP IN PLACES...THOUGH MOST
OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS LARGE ENOUGH TO LEAVE
OUT MENTION OF FOG AT ALL TAF SITES BUT KSME. EVEN HERE...ONLY WENT
MVFR GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF FOG TO OCCUR. UPSTREAM...A DECK OF
CLOUDS IS NEARING THE OHIO RIVER AND MOVING TOWARDS EASTERN KY AS A
RESULT OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW OFF TO OUR NE. EXPECT
THE CIG HEIGHTS TO LOWER SOMEWHAT AS THEY REACH THE TAF SITES
/GENERALLY BY AROUND 12Z/...WITH MVFR TO LOW END VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. THESE CLOUDS...AS WELL AS SOME TRAPPED MOISTURE/BR...SHOULD
FINALLY LIFT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JMW







000
FXUS63 KJKL 210738
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
338 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT LAST NIGHT...MUCH OF THE
REGION SHOULD EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE DAY TODAY UNDER
GENERALLY NW FLOW. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR EAST...WHICH WILL
SEE ENOUGH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY SITTING JUST TO OUR NE...THAT UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
SCT SHOWER CHANCES BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE MOISTURE AND FORCING
WILL BE WEAK...SO RAIN ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT...IF NOT
INSIGNIFICANT. THE MOISTURE WILL ALSO LEAD TO CONTINUED CLOUD COVER
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA AS WELL...WITH ONLY THE FAR SW
COUNTIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLEAR TODAY AND TONIGHT. BY
TOMORROW...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TREK SLIGHTLY FARTHER
EASTWARD...JUST ENOUGH TO PULL ANY FURTHER MOISTURE POTENTIAL OUT OF
THE FAR EAST.

IN ADDITION TO THE MOISTURE PULL ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW...KY
WILL ALSO FIND ITSELF UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG NORTH TO SOUTH
ORIENTED UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK...PULLING STRONG NRLY COOLER AIR
FROM CANADA. THIS JET STREAK WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST FOLLOWING
THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE PATTERN. JKL CAN EXPECT TO FIND ITSELF
UNDER THE BEST INFLUENCE OF THIS JET STREAK OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
INTO THE DAY TOMORROW. SO ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
CLOUD COVER ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION...THE STRONG PULL OF
CANADIAN AIR WILL STILL PLAY A LARGE INFLUENCE IN THE OVERNIGHT
TEMPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE UPPER
30S...ESPECIALLY IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
HAVE A HARD TIME REBOUNDING TOMORROW. LOW TO MID 50S ARE TO BE
EXPECTED FOR HIGHS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TREK EASTWARD TOMORROW...THE LOW AND WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF EASTERN KY...WITH
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED TO ENSUE AS WE HEAD INTO LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL KEEP COOLER THAN
NORMAL CONDITIONS AROUND FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AS THE
TROUGHING SLOWLY DEPARTS TO THE EAST...HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND
TOWARDS WEEKS END...WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING TO MODERATE. EVEN
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS STRONG RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

AS FOR THE DETAILS...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HOLD ON WELL INTO WEDNESDAY
AS NORTHERLY WINDS LOCK IN THE LOW STRATUS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING...BUT
OPTING TO LEAVE IT MAINLY DRY AT THIS TIME. AS THE TROUGHING PUSHES
EAST...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STILL SOME QUESTION ON HOW FAST THIS
CLEARING WILL REACH THE FAR EAST AS SOMETIMES IT CAN BE VERY
STUBBORN TO DEPART. GIVEN THE CHILLY CONDITIONS IN PLACE...IF ENOUGH
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR A
BIT MORE FROST THAN WE HAVE SEEN THUS FAR THIS SEASON.
HOWEVER...SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES DO NOT LOOK LIKELY AT THIS
TIME.  WHATEVER CLOUD COVER CAN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD
QUICKLY BE ON THE WAY OUT...AS DRY AIR TAKES OVER...ALLOWING FOR
SUNNY SKIES. WITH THE RIDGING VERY SLOW TO MOVE IN LATE IN THE
WEEK...MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FAST MOVING VORT
MAX TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE WEAKENING WITH TIME...BUT GIVEN HOW
THINGS HAVE GONE LATELY...WOULD BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES PUSH ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS WAVE. FOR
NOW...OPTING TO STICK WITH SOME SPRINKLES WITH THIS WAVE AS MOISTURE
SEEMS RATHER LIMITED. BY SATURDAY...RIDGING WILL SURGE
EAST...ALLOWING FOR A WARM AND DRY WEEKEND WITH HIGHS JUMPING BACK
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 159 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY TRAVERSING EASTERN KY HAS LED TO A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THESE SHOWERS ARE NOW MOVING
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE...WITH VCSH STILL
POSSIBLE AT KJKL AND KSJS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE CHALLENGE
OF THIS FORECAST WAS TO PUT TOGETHER AN IDEA OF WHAT WILL OCCUR FOR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NW BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT SO FAR MUCH OF THE AREA IS CLOUD FREE. THIS
MAY ALLOW SOME MORE PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP IN PLACES...THOUGH MOST
OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS LARGE ENOUGH TO LEAVE
OUT MENTION OF FOG AT ALL TAF SITES BUT KSME. EVEN HERE...ONLY WENT
MVFR GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF FOG TO OCCUR. UPSTREAM...A DECK OF
CLOUDS IS NEARING THE OHIO RIVER AND MOVING TOWARDS EASTERN KY AS A
RESULT OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW OFF TO OUR NE. EXPECT
THE CIG HEIGHTS TO LOWER SOMEWHAT AS THEY REACH THE TAF SITES
/GENERALLY BY AROUND 12Z/...WITH MVFR TO LOW END VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. THESE CLOUDS...AS WELL AS SOME TRAPPED MOISTURE/BR...SHOULD
FINALLY LIFT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JMW







000
FXUS63 KJKL 210738
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
338 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT LAST NIGHT...MUCH OF THE
REGION SHOULD EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE DAY TODAY UNDER
GENERALLY NW FLOW. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR EAST...WHICH WILL
SEE ENOUGH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY SITTING JUST TO OUR NE...THAT UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
SCT SHOWER CHANCES BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE MOISTURE AND FORCING
WILL BE WEAK...SO RAIN ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT...IF NOT
INSIGNIFICANT. THE MOISTURE WILL ALSO LEAD TO CONTINUED CLOUD COVER
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA AS WELL...WITH ONLY THE FAR SW
COUNTIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLEAR TODAY AND TONIGHT. BY
TOMORROW...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TREK SLIGHTLY FARTHER
EASTWARD...JUST ENOUGH TO PULL ANY FURTHER MOISTURE POTENTIAL OUT OF
THE FAR EAST.

IN ADDITION TO THE MOISTURE PULL ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW...KY
WILL ALSO FIND ITSELF UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG NORTH TO SOUTH
ORIENTED UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK...PULLING STRONG NRLY COOLER AIR
FROM CANADA. THIS JET STREAK WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST FOLLOWING
THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE PATTERN. JKL CAN EXPECT TO FIND ITSELF
UNDER THE BEST INFLUENCE OF THIS JET STREAK OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
INTO THE DAY TOMORROW. SO ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
CLOUD COVER ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION...THE STRONG PULL OF
CANADIAN AIR WILL STILL PLAY A LARGE INFLUENCE IN THE OVERNIGHT
TEMPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE UPPER
30S...ESPECIALLY IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
HAVE A HARD TIME REBOUNDING TOMORROW. LOW TO MID 50S ARE TO BE
EXPECTED FOR HIGHS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TREK EASTWARD TOMORROW...THE LOW AND WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF EASTERN KY...WITH
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED TO ENSUE AS WE HEAD INTO LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL KEEP COOLER THAN
NORMAL CONDITIONS AROUND FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AS THE
TROUGHING SLOWLY DEPARTS TO THE EAST...HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND
TOWARDS WEEKS END...WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING TO MODERATE. EVEN
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS STRONG RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

AS FOR THE DETAILS...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HOLD ON WELL INTO WEDNESDAY
AS NORTHERLY WINDS LOCK IN THE LOW STRATUS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING...BUT
OPTING TO LEAVE IT MAINLY DRY AT THIS TIME. AS THE TROUGHING PUSHES
EAST...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STILL SOME QUESTION ON HOW FAST THIS
CLEARING WILL REACH THE FAR EAST AS SOMETIMES IT CAN BE VERY
STUBBORN TO DEPART. GIVEN THE CHILLY CONDITIONS IN PLACE...IF ENOUGH
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR A
BIT MORE FROST THAN WE HAVE SEEN THUS FAR THIS SEASON.
HOWEVER...SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES DO NOT LOOK LIKELY AT THIS
TIME.  WHATEVER CLOUD COVER CAN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD
QUICKLY BE ON THE WAY OUT...AS DRY AIR TAKES OVER...ALLOWING FOR
SUNNY SKIES. WITH THE RIDGING VERY SLOW TO MOVE IN LATE IN THE
WEEK...MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FAST MOVING VORT
MAX TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE WEAKENING WITH TIME...BUT GIVEN HOW
THINGS HAVE GONE LATELY...WOULD BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES PUSH ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS WAVE. FOR
NOW...OPTING TO STICK WITH SOME SPRINKLES WITH THIS WAVE AS MOISTURE
SEEMS RATHER LIMITED. BY SATURDAY...RIDGING WILL SURGE
EAST...ALLOWING FOR A WARM AND DRY WEEKEND WITH HIGHS JUMPING BACK
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 159 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY TRAVERSING EASTERN KY HAS LED TO A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THESE SHOWERS ARE NOW MOVING
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE...WITH VCSH STILL
POSSIBLE AT KJKL AND KSJS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE CHALLENGE
OF THIS FORECAST WAS TO PUT TOGETHER AN IDEA OF WHAT WILL OCCUR FOR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NW BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT SO FAR MUCH OF THE AREA IS CLOUD FREE. THIS
MAY ALLOW SOME MORE PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP IN PLACES...THOUGH MOST
OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS LARGE ENOUGH TO LEAVE
OUT MENTION OF FOG AT ALL TAF SITES BUT KSME. EVEN HERE...ONLY WENT
MVFR GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF FOG TO OCCUR. UPSTREAM...A DECK OF
CLOUDS IS NEARING THE OHIO RIVER AND MOVING TOWARDS EASTERN KY AS A
RESULT OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW OFF TO OUR NE. EXPECT
THE CIG HEIGHTS TO LOWER SOMEWHAT AS THEY REACH THE TAF SITES
/GENERALLY BY AROUND 12Z/...WITH MVFR TO LOW END VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. THESE CLOUDS...AS WELL AS SOME TRAPPED MOISTURE/BR...SHOULD
FINALLY LIFT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JMW








000
FXUS63 KJKL 210619
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
219 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL GUIDANCE TO MAKE SURE THE WINDS
AND TEMPS WERE WELL REFLECTED IN THE ONGOING FORECAST. A BROKEN LINE
OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MAKE IT/S WAY ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN SECTION
OF THE CWA. WHILE THE ONGOING FORECAST SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
THIS TRANSITION...DID MAKE A SMALL UPDATE TO INCLUDE ISOLATED THUNDER
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A RESULT OF ONE SHOWER WHICH HAS PRODUCED
SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE COLD
FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA...MAKING IT/S WAY EASTWARD. BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...WINDS ARE
BEGINNING THEIR SHIFT TO A MORE NW DIRECTION...WITH A AREA OF CLOUDS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE CWA FOLLOWING THIS FLOW OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1135 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS PICKED UP OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS ON RADAR...WITH
EVEN SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES FROM TIME TO TIME. A DECENT CLUSTER IS
HEADING INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA...AND HAVE BEEFED UP POPS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CLUSTER...WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT
HEADS SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA...WHERE IT IS A BIT MORE STABLE.
CLEARING HAS ALSO BEEN MORE PROLIFIC THIS EVENING...ALLOWING FOR
PATCHY DENSE FOG AND A QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES...SOME OF WHICH
HAVE DIPPED BELOW THE FORECAST LOWS. HAVE DROPPED THE LOWS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE COOLER READINGS. THESE SHOULD REBOUND AS THICKER CLOUDS MOVE
IN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT...SO HAVE BLENDED THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO SOME OF THE MODEL DATA WHICH CAPTURES THIS
BEST. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 819 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS HAVE LOWERED POPS THROUGH 03Z. ALSO
HAVE ALLOWED FOR A LONGER LULL IN PRECIP BETWEEN THE PRE-FRONTAL
SHOWERS WHICH HAVE NOW MOVED OUT OF THE REGION...AND POST FRONTAL
PRECIP NOW MOVING INTO WESTERN KY BASED ON SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A SHORT WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LATER
TONIGHT... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THEN AN UPPER LOW
WILL STAY NEAR THE AREA KEEPING THINGS UNSETTLED THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. THE FRONT UPSTREAM...IS LOOKING LIKE THE STRONGEST
PORTION WILL MISS THE AREA. JUST KEPT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FROM NOW. WITH THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT
WARMER TONIGHT...HOWEVER BY NEAR DAWN ON WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME
PATCHY FROST AGAIN IN THE VALLEYS. STAYED VERY CLOSE TO THE BLENDED
MODELS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL KEEP COOLER THAN
NORMAL CONDITIONS AROUND FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AS THE
TROUGHING SLOWLY DEPARTS TO THE EAST...HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND
TOWARDS WEEKS END...WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING TO MODERATE. EVEN
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS STRONG RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

AS FOR THE DETAILS...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HOLD ON WELL INTO WEDNESDAY
AS NORTHERLY WINDS LOCK IN THE LOW STRATUS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING...BUT
OPTING TO LEAVE IT MAINLY DRY AT THIS TIME. AS THE TROUGHING PUSHES
EAST...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STILL SOME QUESTION ON HOW FAST THIS
CLEARING WILL REACH THE FAR EAST AS SOMETIMES IT CAN BE VERY
STUBBORN TO DEPART. GIVEN THE CHILLY CONDITIONS IN PLACE...IF ENOUGH
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR A
BIT MORE FROST THAN WE HAVE SEEN THUS FAR THIS SEASON.
HOWEVER...SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES DO NOT LOOK LIKELY AT THIS
TIME.  WHATEVER CLOUD COVER CAN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD
QUICKLY BE ON THE WAY OUT...AS DRY AIR TAKES OVER...ALLOWING FOR
SUNNY SKIES. WITH THE RIDGING VERY SLOW TO MOVE IN LATE IN THE
WEEK...MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FAST MOVING VORT
MAX TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE WEAKENING WITH TIME...BUT GIVEN HOW
THINGS HAVE GONE LATELY...WOULD BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES PUSH ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS WAVE. FOR
NOW...OPTING TO STICK WITH SOME SPRINKLES WITH THIS WAVE AS MOISTURE
SEEMS RATHER LIMITED. BY SATURDAY...RIDGING WILL SURGE
EAST...ALLOWING FOR A WARM AND DRY WEEKEND WITH HIGHS JUMPING BACK
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 159 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY TRAVERSING EASTERN KY HAS LED TO A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THESE SHOWERS ARE NOW MOVING
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE...WITH VCSH STILL
POSSIBLE AT KJKL AND KSJS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE CHALLENGE
OF THIS FORECAST WAS TO PUT TOGETHER AN IDEA OF WHAT WILL OCCUR FOR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NW BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT SO FAR MUCH OF THE AREA IS CLOUD FREE. THIS
MAY ALLOW SOME MORE PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP IN PLACES...THOUGH MOST
OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS LARGE ENOUGH TO LEAVE
OUT MENTION OF FOG AT ALL TAF SITES BUT KSME. EVEN HERE...ONLY WENT
MVFR GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF FOG TO OCCUR. UPSTREAM...A DECK OF
CLOUDS IS NEARING THE OHIO RIVER AND MOVING TOWARDS EASTERN KY AS A
RESULT OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW OFF TO OUR NE. EXPECT
THE CIG HEIGHTS TO LOWER SOMEWHAT AS THEY REACH THE TAF SITES
/GENERALLY BY AROUND 12Z/...WITH MVFR TO LOW END VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. THESE CLOUDS...AS WELL AS SOME TRAPPED MOISTURE/BR...SHOULD
FINALLY LIFT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JMW








000
FXUS63 KJKL 210619
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
219 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL GUIDANCE TO MAKE SURE THE WINDS
AND TEMPS WERE WELL REFLECTED IN THE ONGOING FORECAST. A BROKEN LINE
OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MAKE IT/S WAY ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN SECTION
OF THE CWA. WHILE THE ONGOING FORECAST SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
THIS TRANSITION...DID MAKE A SMALL UPDATE TO INCLUDE ISOLATED THUNDER
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A RESULT OF ONE SHOWER WHICH HAS PRODUCED
SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE COLD
FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA...MAKING IT/S WAY EASTWARD. BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...WINDS ARE
BEGINNING THEIR SHIFT TO A MORE NW DIRECTION...WITH A AREA OF CLOUDS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE CWA FOLLOWING THIS FLOW OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1135 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS PICKED UP OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS ON RADAR...WITH
EVEN SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES FROM TIME TO TIME. A DECENT CLUSTER IS
HEADING INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA...AND HAVE BEEFED UP POPS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CLUSTER...WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT
HEADS SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA...WHERE IT IS A BIT MORE STABLE.
CLEARING HAS ALSO BEEN MORE PROLIFIC THIS EVENING...ALLOWING FOR
PATCHY DENSE FOG AND A QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES...SOME OF WHICH
HAVE DIPPED BELOW THE FORECAST LOWS. HAVE DROPPED THE LOWS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE COOLER READINGS. THESE SHOULD REBOUND AS THICKER CLOUDS MOVE
IN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT...SO HAVE BLENDED THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO SOME OF THE MODEL DATA WHICH CAPTURES THIS
BEST. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 819 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS HAVE LOWERED POPS THROUGH 03Z. ALSO
HAVE ALLOWED FOR A LONGER LULL IN PRECIP BETWEEN THE PRE-FRONTAL
SHOWERS WHICH HAVE NOW MOVED OUT OF THE REGION...AND POST FRONTAL
PRECIP NOW MOVING INTO WESTERN KY BASED ON SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A SHORT WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LATER
TONIGHT... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THEN AN UPPER LOW
WILL STAY NEAR THE AREA KEEPING THINGS UNSETTLED THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. THE FRONT UPSTREAM...IS LOOKING LIKE THE STRONGEST
PORTION WILL MISS THE AREA. JUST KEPT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FROM NOW. WITH THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT
WARMER TONIGHT...HOWEVER BY NEAR DAWN ON WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME
PATCHY FROST AGAIN IN THE VALLEYS. STAYED VERY CLOSE TO THE BLENDED
MODELS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL KEEP COOLER THAN
NORMAL CONDITIONS AROUND FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AS THE
TROUGHING SLOWLY DEPARTS TO THE EAST...HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND
TOWARDS WEEKS END...WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING TO MODERATE. EVEN
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS STRONG RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

AS FOR THE DETAILS...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HOLD ON WELL INTO WEDNESDAY
AS NORTHERLY WINDS LOCK IN THE LOW STRATUS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING...BUT
OPTING TO LEAVE IT MAINLY DRY AT THIS TIME. AS THE TROUGHING PUSHES
EAST...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STILL SOME QUESTION ON HOW FAST THIS
CLEARING WILL REACH THE FAR EAST AS SOMETIMES IT CAN BE VERY
STUBBORN TO DEPART. GIVEN THE CHILLY CONDITIONS IN PLACE...IF ENOUGH
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR A
BIT MORE FROST THAN WE HAVE SEEN THUS FAR THIS SEASON.
HOWEVER...SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES DO NOT LOOK LIKELY AT THIS
TIME.  WHATEVER CLOUD COVER CAN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD
QUICKLY BE ON THE WAY OUT...AS DRY AIR TAKES OVER...ALLOWING FOR
SUNNY SKIES. WITH THE RIDGING VERY SLOW TO MOVE IN LATE IN THE
WEEK...MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FAST MOVING VORT
MAX TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE WEAKENING WITH TIME...BUT GIVEN HOW
THINGS HAVE GONE LATELY...WOULD BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES PUSH ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS WAVE. FOR
NOW...OPTING TO STICK WITH SOME SPRINKLES WITH THIS WAVE AS MOISTURE
SEEMS RATHER LIMITED. BY SATURDAY...RIDGING WILL SURGE
EAST...ALLOWING FOR A WARM AND DRY WEEKEND WITH HIGHS JUMPING BACK
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 159 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY TRAVERSING EASTERN KY HAS LED TO A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THESE SHOWERS ARE NOW MOVING
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE...WITH VCSH STILL
POSSIBLE AT KJKL AND KSJS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE CHALLENGE
OF THIS FORECAST WAS TO PUT TOGETHER AN IDEA OF WHAT WILL OCCUR FOR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NW BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT SO FAR MUCH OF THE AREA IS CLOUD FREE. THIS
MAY ALLOW SOME MORE PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP IN PLACES...THOUGH MOST
OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS LARGE ENOUGH TO LEAVE
OUT MENTION OF FOG AT ALL TAF SITES BUT KSME. EVEN HERE...ONLY WENT
MVFR GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF FOG TO OCCUR. UPSTREAM...A DECK OF
CLOUDS IS NEARING THE OHIO RIVER AND MOVING TOWARDS EASTERN KY AS A
RESULT OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW OFF TO OUR NE. EXPECT
THE CIG HEIGHTS TO LOWER SOMEWHAT AS THEY REACH THE TAF SITES
/GENERALLY BY AROUND 12Z/...WITH MVFR TO LOW END VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. THESE CLOUDS...AS WELL AS SOME TRAPPED MOISTURE/BR...SHOULD
FINALLY LIFT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JMW







000
FXUS63 KJKL 210335 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1135 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS PICKED UP OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS ON RADAR...WITH
EVEN SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES FROM TIME TO TIME. A DECENT CLUSTER IS
HEADING INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA...AND HAVE BEEFED UP POPS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CLUSTER...WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT
HEADS SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA...WHERE IT IS A BIT MORE STABLE.
CLEARING HAS ALSO BEEN MORE PROLIFIC THIS EVENING...ALLOWING FOR
PATCHY DENSE FOG AND A QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES...SOME OF WHICH
HAVE DIPPED BELOW THE FORECAST LOWS. HAVE DROPPED THE LOWS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE COOLER READINGS. THESE SHOULD REBOUND AS THICKER CLOUDS MOVE
IN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT...SO HAVE BLENDED THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO SOME OF THE MODEL DATA WHICH CAPTURES THIS
BEST. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 819 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS HAVE LOWERED POPS THROUGH 03Z. ALSO
HAVE ALLOWED FOR A LONGER LULL IN PRECIP BETWEEN THE PRE-FRONTAL
SHOWERS WHICH HAVE NOW MOVED OUT OF THE REGION...AND POST FRONTAL
PRECIP NOW MOVING INTO WESTERN KY BASED ON SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A SHORT WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LATER
TONIGHT... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THEN AN UPPER LOW
WILL STAY NEAR THE AREA KEEPING THINGS UNSETTLED THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. THE FRONT UPSTREAM...IS LOOKING LIKE THE STRONGEST
PORTION WILL MISS THE AREA. JUST KEPT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FROM NOW. WITH THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT
WARMER TONIGHT...HOWEVER BY NEAR DAWN ON WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME
PATCHY FROST AGAIN IN THE VALLEYS. STAYED VERY CLOSE TO THE BLENDED
MODELS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL KEEP COOLER THAN
NORMAL CONDITIONS AROUND FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AS THE
TROUGHING SLOWLY DEPARTS TO THE EAST...HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND
TOWARDS WEEKS END...WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING TO MODERATE. EVEN
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS STRONG RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

AS FOR THE DETAILS...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HOLD ON WELL INTO WEDNESDAY
AS NORTHERLY WINDS LOCK IN THE LOW STRATUS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING...BUT
OPTING TO LEAVE IT MAINLY DRY AT THIS TIME. AS THE TROUGHING PUSHES
EAST...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STILL SOME QUESTION ON HOW FAST THIS
CLEARING WILL REACH THE FAR EAST AS SOMETIMES IT CAN BE VERY
STUBBORN TO DEPART. GIVEN THE CHILLY CONDITIONS IN PLACE...IF ENOUGH
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR A
BIT MORE FROST THAN WE HAVE SEEN THUS FAR THIS SEASON.
HOWEVER...SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES DO NOT LOOK LIKELY AT THIS
TIME.  WHATEVER CLOUD COVER CAN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD
QUICKLY BE ON THE WAY OUT...AS DRY AIR TAKES OVER...ALLOWING FOR
SUNNY SKIES. WITH THE RIDGING VERY SLOW TO MOVE IN LATE IN THE
WEEK...MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FAST MOVING VORT
MAX TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE WEAKENING WITH TIME...BUT GIVEN HOW
THINGS HAVE GONE LATELY...WOULD BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES PUSH ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS WAVE. FOR
NOW...OPTING TO STICK WITH SOME SPRINKLES WITH THIS WAVE AS MOISTURE
SEEMS RATHER LIMITED. BY SATURDAY...RIDGING WILL SURGE
EAST...ALLOWING FOR A WARM AND DRY WEEKEND WITH HIGHS JUMPING BACK
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 819 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AS
WELL AS LOWERING CEILINGS TO EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO HOLD ON THROUGH AROUND 06Z...BEFORE
CEILINGS LOWER INTO THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORY FROM 06 TO 12Z. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH LOW CEILINGS
LIKELY HANGING AROUND THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM/GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN








000
FXUS63 KJKL 210335 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1135 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS PICKED UP OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS ON RADAR...WITH
EVEN SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES FROM TIME TO TIME. A DECENT CLUSTER IS
HEADING INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA...AND HAVE BEEFED UP POPS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CLUSTER...WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT
HEADS SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA...WHERE IT IS A BIT MORE STABLE.
CLEARING HAS ALSO BEEN MORE PROLIFIC THIS EVENING...ALLOWING FOR
PATCHY DENSE FOG AND A QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES...SOME OF WHICH
HAVE DIPPED BELOW THE FORECAST LOWS. HAVE DROPPED THE LOWS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE COOLER READINGS. THESE SHOULD REBOUND AS THICKER CLOUDS MOVE
IN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT...SO HAVE BLENDED THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO SOME OF THE MODEL DATA WHICH CAPTURES THIS
BEST. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 819 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS HAVE LOWERED POPS THROUGH 03Z. ALSO
HAVE ALLOWED FOR A LONGER LULL IN PRECIP BETWEEN THE PRE-FRONTAL
SHOWERS WHICH HAVE NOW MOVED OUT OF THE REGION...AND POST FRONTAL
PRECIP NOW MOVING INTO WESTERN KY BASED ON SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A SHORT WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LATER
TONIGHT... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THEN AN UPPER LOW
WILL STAY NEAR THE AREA KEEPING THINGS UNSETTLED THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. THE FRONT UPSTREAM...IS LOOKING LIKE THE STRONGEST
PORTION WILL MISS THE AREA. JUST KEPT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FROM NOW. WITH THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT
WARMER TONIGHT...HOWEVER BY NEAR DAWN ON WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME
PATCHY FROST AGAIN IN THE VALLEYS. STAYED VERY CLOSE TO THE BLENDED
MODELS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL KEEP COOLER THAN
NORMAL CONDITIONS AROUND FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AS THE
TROUGHING SLOWLY DEPARTS TO THE EAST...HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND
TOWARDS WEEKS END...WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING TO MODERATE. EVEN
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS STRONG RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

AS FOR THE DETAILS...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HOLD ON WELL INTO WEDNESDAY
AS NORTHERLY WINDS LOCK IN THE LOW STRATUS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING...BUT
OPTING TO LEAVE IT MAINLY DRY AT THIS TIME. AS THE TROUGHING PUSHES
EAST...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STILL SOME QUESTION ON HOW FAST THIS
CLEARING WILL REACH THE FAR EAST AS SOMETIMES IT CAN BE VERY
STUBBORN TO DEPART. GIVEN THE CHILLY CONDITIONS IN PLACE...IF ENOUGH
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR A
BIT MORE FROST THAN WE HAVE SEEN THUS FAR THIS SEASON.
HOWEVER...SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES DO NOT LOOK LIKELY AT THIS
TIME.  WHATEVER CLOUD COVER CAN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD
QUICKLY BE ON THE WAY OUT...AS DRY AIR TAKES OVER...ALLOWING FOR
SUNNY SKIES. WITH THE RIDGING VERY SLOW TO MOVE IN LATE IN THE
WEEK...MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FAST MOVING VORT
MAX TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE WEAKENING WITH TIME...BUT GIVEN HOW
THINGS HAVE GONE LATELY...WOULD BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES PUSH ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS WAVE. FOR
NOW...OPTING TO STICK WITH SOME SPRINKLES WITH THIS WAVE AS MOISTURE
SEEMS RATHER LIMITED. BY SATURDAY...RIDGING WILL SURGE
EAST...ALLOWING FOR A WARM AND DRY WEEKEND WITH HIGHS JUMPING BACK
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 819 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AS
WELL AS LOWERING CEILINGS TO EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO HOLD ON THROUGH AROUND 06Z...BEFORE
CEILINGS LOWER INTO THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORY FROM 06 TO 12Z. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH LOW CEILINGS
LIKELY HANGING AROUND THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM/GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN









000
FXUS63 KJKL 210019 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
819 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 819 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS HAVE LOWERED POPS THROUGH 03Z. ALSO
HAVE ALLOWED FOR A LONGER LULL IN PRECIP BETWEEN THE PRE-FRONTAL
SHOWERS WHICH HAVE NOW MOVED OUT OF THE REGION...AND POST FRONTAL
PRECIP NOW MOVING INTO WESTERN KY BASED ON SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A SHORT WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LATER
TONIGHT... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THEN AN UPPER LOW
WILL STAY NEAR THE AREA KEEPING THINGS UNSETTLED THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. THE FRONT UPSTREAM...IS LOOKING LIKE THE STRONGEST
PORTION WILL MISS THE AREA. JUST KEPT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FROM NOW. WITH THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT
WARMER TONIGHT...HOWEVER BY NEAR DAWN ON WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME
PATCHY FROST AGAIN IN THE VALLEYS. STAYED VERY CLOSE TO THE BLENDED
MODELS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL KEEP COOLER THAN
NORMAL CONDITIONS AROUND FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AS THE
TROUGHING SLOWLY DEPARTS TO THE EAST...HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND
TOWARDS WEEKS END...WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING TO MODERATE. EVEN
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS STRONG RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

AS FOR THE DETAILS...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HOLD ON WELL INTO WEDNESDAY
AS NORTHERLY WINDS LOCK IN THE LOW STRATUS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING...BUT
OPTING TO LEAVE IT MAINLY DRY AT THIS TIME. AS THE TROUGHING PUSHES
EAST...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STILL SOME QUESTION ON HOW FAST THIS
CLEARING WILL REACH THE FAR EAST AS SOMETIMES IT CAN BE VERY
STUBBORN TO DEPART. GIVEN THE CHILLY CONDITIONS IN PLACE...IF ENOUGH
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR A
BIT MORE FROST THAN WE HAVE SEEN THUS FAR THIS SEASON.
HOWEVER...SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES DO NOT LOOK LIKELY AT THIS
TIME.  WHATEVER CLOUD COVER CAN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD
QUICKLY BE ON THE WAY OUT...AS DRY AIR TAKES OVER...ALLOWING FOR
SUNNY SKIES. WITH THE RIDGING VERY SLOW TO MOVE IN LATE IN THE
WEEK...MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FAST MOVING VORT
MAX TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE WEAKENING WITH TIME...BUT GIVEN HOW
THINGS HAVE GONE LATELY...WOULD BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES PUSH ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS WAVE. FOR
NOW...OPTING TO STICK WITH SOME SPRINKLES WITH THIS WAVE AS MOISTURE
SEEMS RATHER LIMITED. BY SATURDAY...RIDGING WILL SURGE
EAST...ALLOWING FOR A WARM AND DRY WEEKEND WITH HIGHS JUMPING BACK
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 819 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AS
WELL AS LOWERING CEILINGS TO EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO HOLD ON THROUGH AROUND 06Z...BEFORE
CEILINGS LOWER INTO THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORY FROM 06 TO 12Z. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH LOW CEILINGS
LIKELY HANGING AROUND THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN









000
FXUS63 KJKL 210019 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
819 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 819 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS HAVE LOWERED POPS THROUGH 03Z. ALSO
HAVE ALLOWED FOR A LONGER LULL IN PRECIP BETWEEN THE PRE-FRONTAL
SHOWERS WHICH HAVE NOW MOVED OUT OF THE REGION...AND POST FRONTAL
PRECIP NOW MOVING INTO WESTERN KY BASED ON SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A SHORT WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LATER
TONIGHT... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THEN AN UPPER LOW
WILL STAY NEAR THE AREA KEEPING THINGS UNSETTLED THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. THE FRONT UPSTREAM...IS LOOKING LIKE THE STRONGEST
PORTION WILL MISS THE AREA. JUST KEPT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FROM NOW. WITH THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT
WARMER TONIGHT...HOWEVER BY NEAR DAWN ON WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME
PATCHY FROST AGAIN IN THE VALLEYS. STAYED VERY CLOSE TO THE BLENDED
MODELS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL KEEP COOLER THAN
NORMAL CONDITIONS AROUND FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AS THE
TROUGHING SLOWLY DEPARTS TO THE EAST...HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND
TOWARDS WEEKS END...WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING TO MODERATE. EVEN
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS STRONG RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

AS FOR THE DETAILS...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HOLD ON WELL INTO WEDNESDAY
AS NORTHERLY WINDS LOCK IN THE LOW STRATUS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING...BUT
OPTING TO LEAVE IT MAINLY DRY AT THIS TIME. AS THE TROUGHING PUSHES
EAST...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STILL SOME QUESTION ON HOW FAST THIS
CLEARING WILL REACH THE FAR EAST AS SOMETIMES IT CAN BE VERY
STUBBORN TO DEPART. GIVEN THE CHILLY CONDITIONS IN PLACE...IF ENOUGH
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR A
BIT MORE FROST THAN WE HAVE SEEN THUS FAR THIS SEASON.
HOWEVER...SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES DO NOT LOOK LIKELY AT THIS
TIME.  WHATEVER CLOUD COVER CAN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD
QUICKLY BE ON THE WAY OUT...AS DRY AIR TAKES OVER...ALLOWING FOR
SUNNY SKIES. WITH THE RIDGING VERY SLOW TO MOVE IN LATE IN THE
WEEK...MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FAST MOVING VORT
MAX TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE WEAKENING WITH TIME...BUT GIVEN HOW
THINGS HAVE GONE LATELY...WOULD BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES PUSH ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS WAVE. FOR
NOW...OPTING TO STICK WITH SOME SPRINKLES WITH THIS WAVE AS MOISTURE
SEEMS RATHER LIMITED. BY SATURDAY...RIDGING WILL SURGE
EAST...ALLOWING FOR A WARM AND DRY WEEKEND WITH HIGHS JUMPING BACK
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 819 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AS
WELL AS LOWERING CEILINGS TO EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO HOLD ON THROUGH AROUND 06Z...BEFORE
CEILINGS LOWER INTO THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORY FROM 06 TO 12Z. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH LOW CEILINGS
LIKELY HANGING AROUND THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN










000
FXUS63 KJKL 201941
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
341 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A SHORT WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LATER
TONIGHT... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THEN AN UPPER LOW
WILL STAY NEAR THE AREA KEEPING THINGS UNSETTLED THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. THE FRONT UPSTREAM...IS LOOKING LIKE THE STRONGEST
PORTION WILL MISS THE AREA. JUST KEPT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FROM NOW. WITH THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT
WARMER TONIGHT...HOWEVER BY NEAR DAWN ON WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE A
SOME PATCHY FROST AGAIN IN THE VALLEYS. STAYED VERY CLOSE TO THE
BLENDED MODELS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL KEEP COOLER THAN
NORMAL CONDITIONS AROUND FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AS THE
TROUGHING SLOWLY DEPARTS TO THE EAST...HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND
TOWARDS WEEKS END...WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING TO MODERATE. EVEN
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS STRONG RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

AS FOR THE DETAILS...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HOLD ON WELL INTO WEDNESDAY
AS NORTHERLY WINDS LOCK IN THE LOW STRATUS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING...BUT
OPTING TO LEAVE IT MAINLY DRY AT THIS TIME. AS THE TROUGHING PUSHES
EAST...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STILL SOME QUESTION ON HOW FAST THIS
CLEARING WILL REACH THE FAR EAST AS SOMETIMES IT CAN BE VERY
STUBBORN TO DEPART. GIVEN THE CHILLY CONDITIONS IN PLACE...IF ENOUGH
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR A
BIT MORE FROST THAN WE HAVE SEEN THUS FAR THIS SEASON.
HOWEVER...SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES DO NOT LOOK LIKELY AT THIS
TIME.  WHATEVER CLOUD COVER CAN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD
QUICKLY BE ON THE WAY OUT...AS DRY AIR TAKES OVER...ALLOWING FOR
SUNNY SKIES. WITH THE RIDGING VERY SLOW TO MOVE IN LATE IN THE
WEEK...MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FAST MOVING VORT
MAX TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE WEAKENING WITH TIME...BUT GIVEN HOW
THINGS HAVE GONE LATELY...WOULD BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES PUSH ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS WAVE. FOR
NOW...OPTING TO STICK WITH SOME SPRINKLES WITH THIS WAVE AS MOISTURE
SEEMS RATHER LIMITED. BY SATURDAY...RIDGING WILL SURGE
EAST...ALLOWING FOR A WARM AND DRY WEEKEND WITH HIGHS JUMPING BACK
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 113 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THESE
SHOWERS HOWEVER THEY WILL BE ABLE TO SLOWLY LOWER THE CIGS DURING THE
EVENING AND WILL BE ABLE TO GET THEM DOWN TO ABOUT 1500 FT BY 9Z. THE
STRATUS CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF DURING THE MORNING AND RETURN TO VFR.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JJ







000
FXUS63 KJKL 201941
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
341 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A SHORT WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LATER
TONIGHT... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THEN AN UPPER LOW
WILL STAY NEAR THE AREA KEEPING THINGS UNSETTLED THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. THE FRONT UPSTREAM...IS LOOKING LIKE THE STRONGEST
PORTION WILL MISS THE AREA. JUST KEPT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FROM NOW. WITH THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT
WARMER TONIGHT...HOWEVER BY NEAR DAWN ON WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE A
SOME PATCHY FROST AGAIN IN THE VALLEYS. STAYED VERY CLOSE TO THE
BLENDED MODELS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL KEEP COOLER THAN
NORMAL CONDITIONS AROUND FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AS THE
TROUGHING SLOWLY DEPARTS TO THE EAST...HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND
TOWARDS WEEKS END...WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING TO MODERATE. EVEN
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS STRONG RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

AS FOR THE DETAILS...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HOLD ON WELL INTO WEDNESDAY
AS NORTHERLY WINDS LOCK IN THE LOW STRATUS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING...BUT
OPTING TO LEAVE IT MAINLY DRY AT THIS TIME. AS THE TROUGHING PUSHES
EAST...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STILL SOME QUESTION ON HOW FAST THIS
CLEARING WILL REACH THE FAR EAST AS SOMETIMES IT CAN BE VERY
STUBBORN TO DEPART. GIVEN THE CHILLY CONDITIONS IN PLACE...IF ENOUGH
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR A
BIT MORE FROST THAN WE HAVE SEEN THUS FAR THIS SEASON.
HOWEVER...SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES DO NOT LOOK LIKELY AT THIS
TIME.  WHATEVER CLOUD COVER CAN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD
QUICKLY BE ON THE WAY OUT...AS DRY AIR TAKES OVER...ALLOWING FOR
SUNNY SKIES. WITH THE RIDGING VERY SLOW TO MOVE IN LATE IN THE
WEEK...MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FAST MOVING VORT
MAX TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE WEAKENING WITH TIME...BUT GIVEN HOW
THINGS HAVE GONE LATELY...WOULD BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES PUSH ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS WAVE. FOR
NOW...OPTING TO STICK WITH SOME SPRINKLES WITH THIS WAVE AS MOISTURE
SEEMS RATHER LIMITED. BY SATURDAY...RIDGING WILL SURGE
EAST...ALLOWING FOR A WARM AND DRY WEEKEND WITH HIGHS JUMPING BACK
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 113 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THESE
SHOWERS HOWEVER THEY WILL BE ABLE TO SLOWLY LOWER THE CIGS DURING THE
EVENING AND WILL BE ABLE TO GET THEM DOWN TO ABOUT 1500 FT BY 9Z. THE
STRATUS CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF DURING THE MORNING AND RETURN TO VFR.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JJ








000
FXUS63 KJKL 201713
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
113 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 113 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS A SERIES OF
WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 12 TO
18 HOURS. ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THESE SHOWERS.
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO TRY TO BETTER TIME THE PRECIPITATION. THE
REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 958 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO UP THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION FOR TODAY
BASED UPON THE CURRENT RADAR AND THE HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH
MODEL. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 724 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO KY IS STILL SHOWING SIGNS OF
STRENGTHENING...WITH FAIRLY GOOD COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE STATE. AFTER SENDING OUT THE PREVIOUS
UPDATE...DECIDED TO GO BACK AND RE-EVALUATE OUR ONGOING POP FORECAST TO
MAKE SURE IT WAS LINING UP WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL TRENDS. ENDED UP
USING A BLEND OF RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE TO COME UP
WITH A FORECAST THAT SHOULD BETTER SUIT THE PROGRESSION OF THE LINE
OF SHOWERS INTO EASTERN KY DURING THE DAY TODAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

FORECAST SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK SO FAR THIS MORNING FOR THE MOST PART.
THE LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING AND
BETTER ORGANIZATION AS WE CONTINUE TO TRACK IT/S MOVEMENT ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER INTO KY. HOWEVER...LATEST OBSERVATIONS ARE STILL ONLY
INDICATING LIGHT RAIN WITH VERY LITTLE VISIBILITY RESTRICTION. MAIN
UPDATE WAS TO TWEAK TEMPERATURES IN THE NEAR TERM. LOADING IN THE
OBSERVATIONAL DATA TO THE ONGOING TEMPERATURE FORECAST PROVED TO DROP
CURRENTLY FORECASTED TEMPERATURES DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES IN SOME
LOCATIONS. BLENDED THIS OUT FOR SEVERAL HOURS...WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO START HEATING FROM THIS POINT FORWARD AS THE SUN BEGINS
TO RISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE REX BLOCK PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE CONUS THIS MORNING...WITH
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS BEING INFLUENCED BY A STRONG TROUGHING
PATTERN. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUR MAIN WEATHER DRIVER FOR
THE SHORT TERM TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. DURING THE DAY TODAY...A
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING TO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY
TOMORROW NIGHT IT WILL STRENGTHEN INTO A CLOSED LOW...THEN DIVE
SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...REACHING THE VIRGINIA/S BY TUESDAY
EVENING. HERE IT WILL STALL OUT BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING UP THE NEW
ENGLAND SEA BOARD DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

FOR TODAY...AS THE SHORTWAVE STRENGTHENS...IT WILL DRIVE A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. FROM THIS SURFACE SYSTEM WILL EXTEND A COLD FRONT. AS THE LOW
MOVES...THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP FROM NW TO THE SE...AND EVENTUALLY
TRAVERSE EASTERN KY LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AS
SUCH...UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY PROTRUDED INTO THE REGION
THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM. A WEAK SCATTERED LINE OF
RAIN SHOWERS IS NOT FAR BEHIND...CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN OH...IN...AND WESTERN KY. SO FAR THESE SHOWERS ARE SHOWING
UP ON THE RADAR AS VERY LIGHT...WITH LITTLE IMPACTS EXPECTED.
UNFORTUNATELY...LATEST MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME COMING TO A
CONCLUSION ABOUT THE PRECIP AS IT REACHES EASTERN KY AND CONTINUES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE
THE BEST QPF AND POPS WILL BE LOCATED CONTINUES TO DIFFER FROM MODEL
TO MODEL. THERE IS A SLIGHT LACK IN CONSISTENCY BETWEEN OFFICES FOR
POPS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TRIED TO MATCH UP AS BEST AS POSSIBLE.
REGARDLESS...THIS IS A MOISTURE DEPRIVED SYSTEM...SO ANY RAIN THAT
DOES OCCUR IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS AND
SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FAIRLY FAST.

ONCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH US BY TOMORROW
MORNING...EXPECT THE RETURN OF A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL ONLY TOP OFF IN THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60 ONCE MORE. ALTHOUGH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HAVE
EXITED...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE ON ITS TRANSITION SOUTHWARD
TOWARDS THE VIRGINIA/S...PULLING THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH
IT. STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO
CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO EASTERN KY OFF THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. THIS
MOISTURE WILL BE VERY WEAK...BUT UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE FAR EAST COULD
BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS IN THIS AREA BOTH TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. EXPECT LITTLE IMPACT FROM THIS...WITH ONLY
VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE APPALACHIANS AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...IN THE PROCESS OF FORMING A LARGE CLOSED LOW
AT ITS BASE AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE MEANDERING NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. IT WILL PUT OUR LOCAL AREA IN A REGION OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE FLOW...FAVORING LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SHOWERS. AS THE ENTIRE SET-UP SLOWLY SHIFTS
EASTWARD...IT SHOULD TAKE ANY SHOWERS WITH IT BY WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE
RIDGE WILL THEN BE OUR DOMINANT FEATURE INTO FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY
EVENING BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEARING
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS SOME LIGHT PRECIP WITH THIS ON
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS WAS NOT THE CASE IN THE PREVIOUS RUN...AND
THE GFS IS STILL BASICALLY DRY. WILL STICK WITH POPS BELOW THE 20
PERCENT THRESHOLD AT THIS POINT...KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY. A COOL
AIR MASS AND SUFFICIENT RADIATING AT NIGHT WILL PRESENT A
POSSIBILITY OF FROST FOR THE FIRST FEW NIGHTS...MAINLY IN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 113 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THESE
SHOWERS HOWEVER THEY WILL BE ABLE TO SLOWLY LOWER THE CIGS DURING THE
EVENING AND WILL BE ABLE TO GET THEM DOWN TO ABOUT 1500 FT BY 9Z. THE
STRATUS CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF DURING THE MORNING AND RETURN TO VFR.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJ
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JJ








000
FXUS63 KJKL 201356
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
956 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO UP THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION FOR TODAY
BASED UPON THE CURRENT RADAR AND THE HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH
MODEL. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 724 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO KY IS STILL SHOWING SIGNS OF
STRENGTHENING...WITH FAIRLY GOOD COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE STATE. AFTER SENDING OUT THE PREVIOUS
UPDATE...DECIDED TO GO BACK AND RE-EVALUATE OUR ONGOING POP FORECAST TO
MAKE SURE IT WAS LINING UP WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL TRENDS. ENDED UP
USING A BLEND OF RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE TO COME UP
WITH A FORECAST THAT SHOULD BETTER SUIT THE PROGRESSION OF THE LINE
OF SHOWERS INTO EASTERN KY DURING THE DAY TODAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

FORECAST SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK SO FAR THIS MORNING FOR THE MOST PART.
THE LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING AND
BETTER ORGANIZATION AS WE CONTINUE TO TRACK IT/S MOVEMENT ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER INTO KY. HOWEVER...LATEST OBSERVATIONS ARE STILL ONLY
INDICATING LIGHT RAIN WITH VERY LITTLE VISIBILITY RESTRICTION. MAIN
UPDATE WAS TO TWEAK TEMPERATURES IN THE NEAR TERM. LOADING IN THE
OBSERVATIONAL DATA TO THE ONGOING TEMPERATURE FORECAST PROVED TO DROP
CURRENTLY FORECASTED TEMPERATURES DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES IN SOME
LOCATIONS. BLENDED THIS OUT FOR SEVERAL HOURS...WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO START HEATING FROM THIS POINT FORWARD AS THE SUN BEGINS
TO RISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE REX BLOCK PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE CONUS THIS MORNING...WITH
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS BEING INFLUENCED BY A STRONG TROUGHING
PATTERN. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUR MAIN WEATHER DRIVER FOR
THE SHORT TERM TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. DURING THE DAY TODAY...A
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING TO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY
TOMORROW NIGHT IT WILL STRENGTHEN INTO A CLOSED LOW...THEN DIVE
SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...REACHING THE VIRGINIA/S BY TUESDAY
EVENING. HERE IT WILL STALL OUT BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING UP THE NEW
ENGLAND SEA BOARD DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

FOR TODAY...AS THE SHORTWAVE STRENGTHENS...IT WILL DRIVE A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. FROM THIS SURFACE SYSTEM WILL EXTEND A COLD FRONT. AS THE LOW
MOVES...THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP FROM NW TO THE SE...AND EVENTUALLY
TRAVERSE EASTERN KY LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AS
SUCH...UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY PROTRUDED INTO THE REGION
THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM. A WEAK SCATTERED LINE OF
RAIN SHOWERS IS NOT FAR BEHIND...CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN OH...IN...AND WESTERN KY. SO FAR THESE SHOWERS ARE SHOWING
UP ON THE RADAR AS VERY LIGHT...WITH LITTLE IMPACTS EXPECTED.
UNFORTUNATELY...LATEST MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME COMING TO A
CONCLUSION ABOUT THE PRECIP AS IT REACHES EASTERN KY AND CONTINUES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE
THE BEST QPF AND POPS WILL BE LOCATED CONTINUES TO DIFFER FROM MODEL
TO MODEL. THERE IS A SLIGHT LACK IN CONSISTENCY BETWEEN OFFICES FOR
POPS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TRIED TO MATCH UP AS BEST AS POSSIBLE.
REGARDLESS...THIS IS A MOISTURE DEPRIVED SYSTEM...SO ANY RAIN THAT
DOES OCCUR IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS AND
SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FAIRLY FAST.

ONCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH US BY TOMORROW
MORNING...EXPECT THE RETURN OF A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL ONLY TOP OFF IN THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60 ONCE MORE. ALTHOUGH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HAVE
EXITED...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE ON ITS TRANSITION SOUTHWARD
TOWARDS THE VIRGINIA/S...PULLING THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH
IT. STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO
CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO EASTERN KY OFF THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. THIS
MOISTURE WILL BE VERY WEAK...BUT UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE FAR EAST COULD
BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS IN THIS AREA BOTH TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. EXPECT LITTLE IMPACT FROM THIS...WITH ONLY
VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE APPALACHIANS AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...IN THE PROCESS OF FORMING A LARGE CLOSED LOW
AT ITS BASE AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE MEANDERING NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. IT WILL PUT OUR LOCAL AREA IN A REGION OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE FLOW...FAVORING LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SHOWERS. AS THE ENTIRE SET-UP SLOWLY SHIFTS
EASTWARD...IT SHOULD TAKE ANY SHOWERS WITH IT BY WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE
RIDGE WILL THEN BE OUR DOMINANT FEATURE INTO FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY
EVENING BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEARING
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS SOME LIGHT PRECIP WITH THIS ON
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS WAS NOT THE CASE IN THE PREVIOUS RUN...AND
THE GFS IS STILL BASICALLY DRY. WILL STICK WITH POPS BELOW THE 20
PERCENT THRESHOLD AT THIS POINT...KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY. A COOL
AIR MASS AND SUFFICIENT RADIATING AT NIGHT WILL PRESENT A
POSSIBILITY OF FROST FOR THE FIRST FEW NIGHTS...MAINLY IN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A LINE OF SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER INTO KY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO BE LIGHT
AND SCATTERED IN NATURE...AFFECTING MUCH OF EASTERN KY THROUGH THE
DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED VCSH AT THIS
TIME...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE AND WHEN EXACTLY THESE SHOWERS
WILL AFFECT A GIVEN TAF SITE. LATEST MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING CIGS
LIKELY LOWERING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS WELL. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO GENERALLY STAY INTACT UNTIL THE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WHEN SOME MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE. DESPITE A
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 10KTS BOTH
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SWITCHING FROM SW DURING THE DAY TODAY...TO MORE
WRLY LATE TONIGHT AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJ
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JMW







000
FXUS63 KJKL 201356
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
956 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO UP THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION FOR TODAY
BASED UPON THE CURRENT RADAR AND THE HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH
MODEL. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 724 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO KY IS STILL SHOWING SIGNS OF
STRENGTHENING...WITH FAIRLY GOOD COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE STATE. AFTER SENDING OUT THE PREVIOUS
UPDATE...DECIDED TO GO BACK AND RE-EVALUATE OUR ONGOING POP FORECAST TO
MAKE SURE IT WAS LINING UP WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL TRENDS. ENDED UP
USING A BLEND OF RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE TO COME UP
WITH A FORECAST THAT SHOULD BETTER SUIT THE PROGRESSION OF THE LINE
OF SHOWERS INTO EASTERN KY DURING THE DAY TODAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

FORECAST SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK SO FAR THIS MORNING FOR THE MOST PART.
THE LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING AND
BETTER ORGANIZATION AS WE CONTINUE TO TRACK IT/S MOVEMENT ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER INTO KY. HOWEVER...LATEST OBSERVATIONS ARE STILL ONLY
INDICATING LIGHT RAIN WITH VERY LITTLE VISIBILITY RESTRICTION. MAIN
UPDATE WAS TO TWEAK TEMPERATURES IN THE NEAR TERM. LOADING IN THE
OBSERVATIONAL DATA TO THE ONGOING TEMPERATURE FORECAST PROVED TO DROP
CURRENTLY FORECASTED TEMPERATURES DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES IN SOME
LOCATIONS. BLENDED THIS OUT FOR SEVERAL HOURS...WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO START HEATING FROM THIS POINT FORWARD AS THE SUN BEGINS
TO RISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE REX BLOCK PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE CONUS THIS MORNING...WITH
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS BEING INFLUENCED BY A STRONG TROUGHING
PATTERN. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUR MAIN WEATHER DRIVER FOR
THE SHORT TERM TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. DURING THE DAY TODAY...A
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING TO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY
TOMORROW NIGHT IT WILL STRENGTHEN INTO A CLOSED LOW...THEN DIVE
SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...REACHING THE VIRGINIA/S BY TUESDAY
EVENING. HERE IT WILL STALL OUT BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING UP THE NEW
ENGLAND SEA BOARD DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

FOR TODAY...AS THE SHORTWAVE STRENGTHENS...IT WILL DRIVE A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. FROM THIS SURFACE SYSTEM WILL EXTEND A COLD FRONT. AS THE LOW
MOVES...THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP FROM NW TO THE SE...AND EVENTUALLY
TRAVERSE EASTERN KY LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AS
SUCH...UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY PROTRUDED INTO THE REGION
THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM. A WEAK SCATTERED LINE OF
RAIN SHOWERS IS NOT FAR BEHIND...CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN OH...IN...AND WESTERN KY. SO FAR THESE SHOWERS ARE SHOWING
UP ON THE RADAR AS VERY LIGHT...WITH LITTLE IMPACTS EXPECTED.
UNFORTUNATELY...LATEST MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME COMING TO A
CONCLUSION ABOUT THE PRECIP AS IT REACHES EASTERN KY AND CONTINUES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE
THE BEST QPF AND POPS WILL BE LOCATED CONTINUES TO DIFFER FROM MODEL
TO MODEL. THERE IS A SLIGHT LACK IN CONSISTENCY BETWEEN OFFICES FOR
POPS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TRIED TO MATCH UP AS BEST AS POSSIBLE.
REGARDLESS...THIS IS A MOISTURE DEPRIVED SYSTEM...SO ANY RAIN THAT
DOES OCCUR IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS AND
SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FAIRLY FAST.

ONCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH US BY TOMORROW
MORNING...EXPECT THE RETURN OF A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL ONLY TOP OFF IN THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60 ONCE MORE. ALTHOUGH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HAVE
EXITED...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE ON ITS TRANSITION SOUTHWARD
TOWARDS THE VIRGINIA/S...PULLING THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH
IT. STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO
CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO EASTERN KY OFF THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. THIS
MOISTURE WILL BE VERY WEAK...BUT UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE FAR EAST COULD
BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS IN THIS AREA BOTH TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. EXPECT LITTLE IMPACT FROM THIS...WITH ONLY
VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE APPALACHIANS AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...IN THE PROCESS OF FORMING A LARGE CLOSED LOW
AT ITS BASE AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE MEANDERING NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. IT WILL PUT OUR LOCAL AREA IN A REGION OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE FLOW...FAVORING LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SHOWERS. AS THE ENTIRE SET-UP SLOWLY SHIFTS
EASTWARD...IT SHOULD TAKE ANY SHOWERS WITH IT BY WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE
RIDGE WILL THEN BE OUR DOMINANT FEATURE INTO FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY
EVENING BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEARING
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS SOME LIGHT PRECIP WITH THIS ON
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS WAS NOT THE CASE IN THE PREVIOUS RUN...AND
THE GFS IS STILL BASICALLY DRY. WILL STICK WITH POPS BELOW THE 20
PERCENT THRESHOLD AT THIS POINT...KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY. A COOL
AIR MASS AND SUFFICIENT RADIATING AT NIGHT WILL PRESENT A
POSSIBILITY OF FROST FOR THE FIRST FEW NIGHTS...MAINLY IN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A LINE OF SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER INTO KY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO BE LIGHT
AND SCATTERED IN NATURE...AFFECTING MUCH OF EASTERN KY THROUGH THE
DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED VCSH AT THIS
TIME...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE AND WHEN EXACTLY THESE SHOWERS
WILL AFFECT A GIVEN TAF SITE. LATEST MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING CIGS
LIKELY LOWERING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS WELL. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO GENERALLY STAY INTACT UNTIL THE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WHEN SOME MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE. DESPITE A
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 10KTS BOTH
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SWITCHING FROM SW DURING THE DAY TODAY...TO MORE
WRLY LATE TONIGHT AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJ
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JMW








000
FXUS63 KJKL 201125
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
725 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 724 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO KY IS STILL SHOWING SIGNS OF
STRENGTHENING...WITH FAIRLY GOOD COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE STATE. AFTER SENDING OUT THE PREVIOUS
UPDATE...DECIDED TO GO BACK AND RE-EVALUTE OUR ONGOING POP FORECAST TO
MAKE SURE IT WAS LINING UP WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL TRENDS. ENDED UP
USING A BLEND OF RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE TO COME UP
WITH A FORECAST THAT SHOULD BETTER SUIT THE PROGRESSION OF THE LINE
OF SHOWERS INTO EASTERN KY DURING THE DAY TODAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

FORECAST SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK SO FAR THIS MORNING FOR THE MOST PART.
THE LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING AND
BETTER ORGANIZATION AS WE CONTINUE TO TRACK IT/S MOVEMENT ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER INTO KY. HOWEVER...LATEST OBSERVATIONS ARE STILL ONLY
INDICATING LIGHT RAIN WITH VERY LITTLE VISIBILITY RESTRICTION. MAIN
UPDATE WAS TO TWEAK TEMPERATURES IN THE NEAR TERM. LOADING IN THE
OBSERVATIONAL DATA TO THE ONGOING TEMPERATURE FORECAST PROVED TO DROP
CURRENTLY FORECASTED TEMPERATURES DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES IN SOME
LOCATIONS. BLENDED THIS OUT FOR SEVERAL HOURS...WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO START HEATING FROM THIS POINT FORWARD AS THE SUN BEGINS
TO RISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE REX BLOCK PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE CONUS THIS MORNING...WITH
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS BEING INFLUENCED BY A STRONG TROUGHING
PATTERN. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUR MAIN WEATHER DRIVER FOR
THE SHORT TERM TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. DURING THE DAY TODAY...A
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING TO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY
TOMORROW NIGHT IT WILL STRENGTHEN INTO A CLOSED LOW...THEN DIVE
SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...REACHING THE VIRGINIA/S BY TUESDAY
EVENING. HERE IT WILL STALL OUT BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING UP THE NEW
ENGLAND SEA BOARD DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

FOR TODAY...AS THE SHORTWAVE STRENGTHENS...IT WILL DRIVE A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. FROM THIS SURFACE SYSTEM WILL EXTEND A COLD FRONT. AS THE LOW
MOVES...THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP FROM NW TO THE SE...AND EVENTUALLY
TRAVERSE EASTERN KY LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AS
SUCH...UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY PROTRUDED INTO THE REGION
THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM. A WEAK SCATTERED LINE OF
RAIN SHOWERS IS NOT FAR BEHIND...CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN OH...IN...AND WESTERN KY. SO FAR THESE SHOWERS ARE SHOWING
UP ON THE RADAR AS VERY LIGHT...WITH LITTLE IMPACTS EXPECTED.
UNFORTUNATELY...LATEST MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME COMING TO A
CONCLUSION ABOUT THE PRECIP AS IT REACHES EASTERN KY AND CONTINUES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE
THE BEST QPF AND POPS WILL BE LOCATED CONTINUES TO DIFFER FROM MODEL
TO MODEL. THERE IS A SLIGHT LACK IN CONSISTENCY BETWEEN OFFICES FOR
POPS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TRIED TO MATCH UP AS BEST AS POSSIBLE.
REGARDLESS...THIS IS A MOISTURE DEPRIVED SYSTEM...SO ANY RAIN THAT
DOES OCCUR IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS AND
SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FAIRLY FAST.

ONCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH US BY TOMORROW
MORNING...EXPECT THE RETURN OF A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL ONLY TOP OFF IN THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60 ONCE MORE. ALTHOUGH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HAVE
EXITED...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE ON ITS TRANSITION SOUTHWARD
TOWARDS THE VIRGINIA/S...PULLING THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH
IT. STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO
CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO EASTERN KY OFF THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. THIS
MOISTURE WILL BE VERY WEAK...BUT UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE FAR EAST COULD
BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS IN THIS AREA BOTH TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. EXPECT LITTLE IMPACT FROM THIS...WITH ONLY
VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE APPALACHIANS AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...IN THE PROCESS OF FORMING A LARGE CLOSED LOW
AT ITS BASE AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE MEANDERING NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. IT WILL PUT OUR LOCAL AREA IN A REGION OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE FLOW...FAVORING LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SHOWERS. AS THE ENTIRE SET-UP SLOWLY SHIFTS
EASTWARD...IT SHOULD TAKE ANY SHOWERS WITH IT BY WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE
RIDGE WILL THEN BE OUR DOMINANT FEATURE INTO FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY
EVENING BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEARING
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS SOME LIGHT PRECIP WITH THIS ON
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS WAS NOT THE CASE IN THE PREVIOUS RUN...AND
THE GFS IS STILL BASICALLY DRY. WILL STICK WITH POPS BELOW THE 20
PERCENT THRESHOLD AT THIS POINT...KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY. A COOL
AIR MASS AND SUFFICIENT RADIATING AT NIGHT WILL PRESENT A
POSSIBILITY OF FROST FOR THE FIRST FEW NIGHTS...MAINLY IN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A LINE OF SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER INTO KY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO BE LIGHT
AND SCATTERED IN NATURE...AFFECTING MUCH OF EASTERN KY THROUGH THE
DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED VCSH AT THIS
TIME...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE AND WHEN EXACTLY THESE SHOWERS
WILL AFFECT A GIVEN TAF SITE. LATEST MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING CIGS
LIKELY LOWERING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS WELL. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO GENERALLY STAY INTACT UNTIL THE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WHEN SOME MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE. DESPITE A
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 10KTS BOTH
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SWITCHING FROM SW DURING THE DAY TODAY...TO MORE
WRLY LATE TONIGHT AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JMW








000
FXUS63 KJKL 201125
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
725 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 724 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO KY IS STILL SHOWING SIGNS OF
STRENGTHENING...WITH FAIRLY GOOD COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE STATE. AFTER SENDING OUT THE PREVIOUS
UPDATE...DECIDED TO GO BACK AND RE-EVALUTE OUR ONGOING POP FORECAST TO
MAKE SURE IT WAS LINING UP WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL TRENDS. ENDED UP
USING A BLEND OF RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE TO COME UP
WITH A FORECAST THAT SHOULD BETTER SUIT THE PROGRESSION OF THE LINE
OF SHOWERS INTO EASTERN KY DURING THE DAY TODAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

FORECAST SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK SO FAR THIS MORNING FOR THE MOST PART.
THE LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING AND
BETTER ORGANIZATION AS WE CONTINUE TO TRACK IT/S MOVEMENT ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER INTO KY. HOWEVER...LATEST OBSERVATIONS ARE STILL ONLY
INDICATING LIGHT RAIN WITH VERY LITTLE VISIBILITY RESTRICTION. MAIN
UPDATE WAS TO TWEAK TEMPERATURES IN THE NEAR TERM. LOADING IN THE
OBSERVATIONAL DATA TO THE ONGOING TEMPERATURE FORECAST PROVED TO DROP
CURRENTLY FORECASTED TEMPERATURES DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES IN SOME
LOCATIONS. BLENDED THIS OUT FOR SEVERAL HOURS...WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO START HEATING FROM THIS POINT FORWARD AS THE SUN BEGINS
TO RISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE REX BLOCK PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE CONUS THIS MORNING...WITH
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS BEING INFLUENCED BY A STRONG TROUGHING
PATTERN. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUR MAIN WEATHER DRIVER FOR
THE SHORT TERM TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. DURING THE DAY TODAY...A
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING TO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY
TOMORROW NIGHT IT WILL STRENGTHEN INTO A CLOSED LOW...THEN DIVE
SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...REACHING THE VIRGINIA/S BY TUESDAY
EVENING. HERE IT WILL STALL OUT BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING UP THE NEW
ENGLAND SEA BOARD DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

FOR TODAY...AS THE SHORTWAVE STRENGTHENS...IT WILL DRIVE A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. FROM THIS SURFACE SYSTEM WILL EXTEND A COLD FRONT. AS THE LOW
MOVES...THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP FROM NW TO THE SE...AND EVENTUALLY
TRAVERSE EASTERN KY LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AS
SUCH...UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY PROTRUDED INTO THE REGION
THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM. A WEAK SCATTERED LINE OF
RAIN SHOWERS IS NOT FAR BEHIND...CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN OH...IN...AND WESTERN KY. SO FAR THESE SHOWERS ARE SHOWING
UP ON THE RADAR AS VERY LIGHT...WITH LITTLE IMPACTS EXPECTED.
UNFORTUNATELY...LATEST MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME COMING TO A
CONCLUSION ABOUT THE PRECIP AS IT REACHES EASTERN KY AND CONTINUES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE
THE BEST QPF AND POPS WILL BE LOCATED CONTINUES TO DIFFER FROM MODEL
TO MODEL. THERE IS A SLIGHT LACK IN CONSISTENCY BETWEEN OFFICES FOR
POPS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TRIED TO MATCH UP AS BEST AS POSSIBLE.
REGARDLESS...THIS IS A MOISTURE DEPRIVED SYSTEM...SO ANY RAIN THAT
DOES OCCUR IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS AND
SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FAIRLY FAST.

ONCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH US BY TOMORROW
MORNING...EXPECT THE RETURN OF A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL ONLY TOP OFF IN THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60 ONCE MORE. ALTHOUGH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HAVE
EXITED...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE ON ITS TRANSITION SOUTHWARD
TOWARDS THE VIRGINIA/S...PULLING THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH
IT. STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO
CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO EASTERN KY OFF THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. THIS
MOISTURE WILL BE VERY WEAK...BUT UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE FAR EAST COULD
BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS IN THIS AREA BOTH TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. EXPECT LITTLE IMPACT FROM THIS...WITH ONLY
VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE APPALACHIANS AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...IN THE PROCESS OF FORMING A LARGE CLOSED LOW
AT ITS BASE AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE MEANDERING NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. IT WILL PUT OUR LOCAL AREA IN A REGION OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE FLOW...FAVORING LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SHOWERS. AS THE ENTIRE SET-UP SLOWLY SHIFTS
EASTWARD...IT SHOULD TAKE ANY SHOWERS WITH IT BY WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE
RIDGE WILL THEN BE OUR DOMINANT FEATURE INTO FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY
EVENING BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEARING
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS SOME LIGHT PRECIP WITH THIS ON
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS WAS NOT THE CASE IN THE PREVIOUS RUN...AND
THE GFS IS STILL BASICALLY DRY. WILL STICK WITH POPS BELOW THE 20
PERCENT THRESHOLD AT THIS POINT...KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY. A COOL
AIR MASS AND SUFFICIENT RADIATING AT NIGHT WILL PRESENT A
POSSIBILITY OF FROST FOR THE FIRST FEW NIGHTS...MAINLY IN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A LINE OF SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER INTO KY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO BE LIGHT
AND SCATTERED IN NATURE...AFFECTING MUCH OF EASTERN KY THROUGH THE
DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED VCSH AT THIS
TIME...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE AND WHEN EXACTLY THESE SHOWERS
WILL AFFECT A GIVEN TAF SITE. LATEST MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING CIGS
LIKELY LOWERING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS WELL. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO GENERALLY STAY INTACT UNTIL THE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WHEN SOME MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE. DESPITE A
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 10KTS BOTH
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SWITCHING FROM SW DURING THE DAY TODAY...TO MORE
WRLY LATE TONIGHT AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JMW









000
FXUS63 KJKL 201046
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
646 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

FORECAST SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK SO FAR THIS MORNING FOR THE MOST PART.
THE LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING AND
BETTER ORGANIZATION AS WE CONTINUE TO TRACK IT/S MOVEMENT ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER INTO KY. HOWEVER...LATEST OBSERVATIONS ARE STILL ONLY
INDICATING LIGHT RAIN WITH VERY LITTLE VISIBILITY RESTRICTION. MAIN
UPDATE WAS TO TWEAK TEMPERATURES IN THE NEAR TERM. LOADING IN THE
OBSERVATIONAL DATA TO THE ONGOING TEMPERATURE FORECAST PROVED TO DROP
CURRENTLY FORECASTED TEMPERATURES DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES IN SOME
LOCATIONS. BLENDED THIS OUT FOR SEVERAL HOURS...WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO START HEATING FROM THIS POINT FORWARD AS THE SUN BEGINS
TO RISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE REX BLOCK PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE CONUS THIS MORNING...WITH
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS BEING INFLUENCED BY A STRONG TROUGHING
PATTERN. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUR MAIN WEATHER DRIVER FOR
THE SHORT TERM TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. DURING THE DAY TODAY...A
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING TO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY
TOMORROW NIGHT IT WILL STRENGTHEN INTO A CLOSED LOW...THEN DIVE
SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...REACHING THE VIRGINIA/S BY TUESDAY
EVENING. HERE IT WILL STALL OUT BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING UP THE NEW
ENGLAND SEA BOARD DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

FOR TODAY...AS THE SHORTWAVE STRENGTHENS...IT WILL DRIVE A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. FROM THIS SURFACE SYSTEM WILL EXTEND A COLD FRONT. AS THE LOW
MOVES...THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP FROM NW TO THE SE...AND EVENTUALLY
TRAVERSE EASTERN KY LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AS
SUCH...UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY PROTRUDED INTO THE REGION
THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM. A WEAK SCATTERED LINE OF
RAIN SHOWERS IS NOT FAR BEHIND...CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN OH...IN...AND WESTERN KY. SO FAR THESE SHOWERS ARE SHOWING
UP ON THE RADAR AS VERY LIGHT...WITH LITTLE IMPACTS EXPECTED.
UNFORTUNATELY...LATEST MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME COMING TO A
CONCLUSION ABOUT THE PRECIP AS IT REACHES EASTERN KY AND CONTINUES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE
THE BEST QPF AND POPS WILL BE LOCATED CONTINUES TO DIFFER FROM MODEL
TO MODEL. THERE IS A SLIGHT LACK IN CONSISTENCY BETWEEN OFFICES FOR
POPS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TRIED TO MATCH UP AS BEST AS POSSIBLE.
REGARDLESS...THIS IS A MOISTURE DEPRIVED SYSTEM...SO ANY RAIN THAT
DOES OCCUR IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS AND
SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FAIRLY FAST.

ONCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH US BY TOMORROW
MORNING...EXPECT THE RETURN OF A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL ONLY TOP OFF IN THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60 ONCE MORE. ALTHOUGH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HAVE
EXITED...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE ON ITS TRANSITION SOUTHWARD
TOWARDS THE VIRGINIA/S...PULLING THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH
IT. STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO
CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO EASTERN KY OFF THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. THIS
MOISTURE WILL BE VERY WEAK...BUT UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE FAR EAST COULD
BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS IN THIS AREA BOTH TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. EXPECT LITTLE IMPACT FROM THIS...WITH ONLY
VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE APPALACHIANS AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...IN THE PROCESS OF FORMING A LARGE CLOSED LOW
AT ITS BASE AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE MEANDERING NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. IT WILL PUT OUR LOCAL AREA IN A REGION OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE FLOW...FAVORING LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SHOWERS. AS THE ENTIRE SET-UP SLOWLY SHIFTS
EASTWARD...IT SHOULD TAKE ANY SHOWERS WITH IT BY WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE
RIDGE WILL THEN BE OUR DOMINANT FEATURE INTO FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY
EVENING BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEARING
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS SOME LIGHT PRECIP WITH THIS ON
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS WAS NOT THE CASE IN THE PREVIOUS RUN...AND
THE GFS IS STILL BASICALLY DRY. WILL STICK WITH POPS BELOW THE 20
PERCENT THRESHOLD AT THIS POINT...KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY. A COOL
AIR MASS AND SUFFICIENT RADIATING AT NIGHT WILL PRESENT A
POSSIBILITY OF FROST FOR THE FIRST FEW NIGHTS...MAINLY IN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A LINE OF SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER INTO KY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO BE LIGHT
AND SCATTERED IN NATURE...AFFECTING MUCH OF EASTERN KY THROUGH THE
DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED VCSH AT THIS
TIME...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE AND WHEN EXACTLY THESE SHOWERS
WILL AFFECT A GIVEN TAF SITE. LATEST MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING CIGS
LIKELY LOWERING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS WELL. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO GENERALLY STAY INTACT UNTIL THE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WHEN SOME MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE. DESPITE A
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 10KTS BOTH
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SWITCHING FROM SW DURING THE DAY TODAY...TO MORE
WRLY LATE TONIGHT AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JMW







000
FXUS63 KJKL 201046
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
646 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

FORECAST SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK SO FAR THIS MORNING FOR THE MOST PART.
THE LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING AND
BETTER ORGANIZATION AS WE CONTINUE TO TRACK IT/S MOVEMENT ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER INTO KY. HOWEVER...LATEST OBSERVATIONS ARE STILL ONLY
INDICATING LIGHT RAIN WITH VERY LITTLE VISIBILITY RESTRICTION. MAIN
UPDATE WAS TO TWEAK TEMPERATURES IN THE NEAR TERM. LOADING IN THE
OBSERVATIONAL DATA TO THE ONGOING TEMPERATURE FORECAST PROVED TO DROP
CURRENTLY FORECASTED TEMPERATURES DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES IN SOME
LOCATIONS. BLENDED THIS OUT FOR SEVERAL HOURS...WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO START HEATING FROM THIS POINT FORWARD AS THE SUN BEGINS
TO RISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE REX BLOCK PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE CONUS THIS MORNING...WITH
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS BEING INFLUENCED BY A STRONG TROUGHING
PATTERN. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUR MAIN WEATHER DRIVER FOR
THE SHORT TERM TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. DURING THE DAY TODAY...A
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING TO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY
TOMORROW NIGHT IT WILL STRENGTHEN INTO A CLOSED LOW...THEN DIVE
SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...REACHING THE VIRGINIA/S BY TUESDAY
EVENING. HERE IT WILL STALL OUT BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING UP THE NEW
ENGLAND SEA BOARD DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

FOR TODAY...AS THE SHORTWAVE STRENGTHENS...IT WILL DRIVE A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. FROM THIS SURFACE SYSTEM WILL EXTEND A COLD FRONT. AS THE LOW
MOVES...THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP FROM NW TO THE SE...AND EVENTUALLY
TRAVERSE EASTERN KY LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AS
SUCH...UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY PROTRUDED INTO THE REGION
THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM. A WEAK SCATTERED LINE OF
RAIN SHOWERS IS NOT FAR BEHIND...CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN OH...IN...AND WESTERN KY. SO FAR THESE SHOWERS ARE SHOWING
UP ON THE RADAR AS VERY LIGHT...WITH LITTLE IMPACTS EXPECTED.
UNFORTUNATELY...LATEST MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME COMING TO A
CONCLUSION ABOUT THE PRECIP AS IT REACHES EASTERN KY AND CONTINUES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE
THE BEST QPF AND POPS WILL BE LOCATED CONTINUES TO DIFFER FROM MODEL
TO MODEL. THERE IS A SLIGHT LACK IN CONSISTENCY BETWEEN OFFICES FOR
POPS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TRIED TO MATCH UP AS BEST AS POSSIBLE.
REGARDLESS...THIS IS A MOISTURE DEPRIVED SYSTEM...SO ANY RAIN THAT
DOES OCCUR IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS AND
SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FAIRLY FAST.

ONCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH US BY TOMORROW
MORNING...EXPECT THE RETURN OF A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL ONLY TOP OFF IN THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60 ONCE MORE. ALTHOUGH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HAVE
EXITED...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE ON ITS TRANSITION SOUTHWARD
TOWARDS THE VIRGINIA/S...PULLING THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH
IT. STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO
CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO EASTERN KY OFF THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. THIS
MOISTURE WILL BE VERY WEAK...BUT UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE FAR EAST COULD
BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS IN THIS AREA BOTH TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. EXPECT LITTLE IMPACT FROM THIS...WITH ONLY
VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE APPALACHIANS AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...IN THE PROCESS OF FORMING A LARGE CLOSED LOW
AT ITS BASE AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE MEANDERING NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. IT WILL PUT OUR LOCAL AREA IN A REGION OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE FLOW...FAVORING LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SHOWERS. AS THE ENTIRE SET-UP SLOWLY SHIFTS
EASTWARD...IT SHOULD TAKE ANY SHOWERS WITH IT BY WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE
RIDGE WILL THEN BE OUR DOMINANT FEATURE INTO FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY
EVENING BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEARING
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS SOME LIGHT PRECIP WITH THIS ON
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS WAS NOT THE CASE IN THE PREVIOUS RUN...AND
THE GFS IS STILL BASICALLY DRY. WILL STICK WITH POPS BELOW THE 20
PERCENT THRESHOLD AT THIS POINT...KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY. A COOL
AIR MASS AND SUFFICIENT RADIATING AT NIGHT WILL PRESENT A
POSSIBILITY OF FROST FOR THE FIRST FEW NIGHTS...MAINLY IN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A LINE OF SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER INTO KY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO BE LIGHT
AND SCATTERED IN NATURE...AFFECTING MUCH OF EASTERN KY THROUGH THE
DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED VCSH AT THIS
TIME...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE AND WHEN EXACTLY THESE SHOWERS
WILL AFFECT A GIVEN TAF SITE. LATEST MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING CIGS
LIKELY LOWERING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS WELL. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO GENERALLY STAY INTACT UNTIL THE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WHEN SOME MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE. DESPITE A
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 10KTS BOTH
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SWITCHING FROM SW DURING THE DAY TODAY...TO MORE
WRLY LATE TONIGHT AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JMW








000
FXUS63 KJKL 200901
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
501 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE REX BLOCK PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE CONUS THIS MORNING...WITH
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS BEING INFLUENCED BY A STRONG TROUGHING
PATTERN. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUR MAIN WEATHER DRIVER FOR
THE SHORT TERM TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. DURING THE DAY TODAY...A
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING TO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY
TOMORROW NIGHT IT WILL STRENGTHEN INTO A CLOSED LOW...THEN DIVE
SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...REACHING THE VIRGINIAS BY TUESDAY
EVENING. HERE IT WILL STALL OUT BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING UP THE NEW
ENGLAND SEA BOARD DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

FOR TODAY...AS THE SHORTWAVE STRENGTHENS...IT WILL DRIVE A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. FROM THIS SURFACE SYSTEM WILL EXTEND A COLD FRONT. AS THE LOW
MOVES...THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP FROM NW TO THE SE...AND EVENTUALLY
TRAVERSE EASTERN KY LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AS
SUCH...UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY PROTRUDED INTO THE REGION
THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM. A WEAK SCATTERED LINE OF
RAIN SHOWERS IS NOT FAR BEHIND...CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN OH...IN...AND WESTERN KY. SO FAR THESE SHOWERS ARE SHOWING
UP ON THE RADAR AS VERY LIGHT...WITH LITTLE IMPACTS EXPECTED.
UNFORTUNATELY...LATEST MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME COMING TO A
CONCLUSION ABOUT THE PRECIP AS IT REACHES EASTERN KY AND CONTINUES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE
THE BEST QPF AND POPS WILL BE LOCATED CONTINUES TO DIFFER FROM MODEL
TO MODEL. THIS WAS FURTHER COMPLICATED BY THE LACK OF 0Z DATA WHILE
CREATING THE FORECAST DUE TO A NCF ISSUE. THESE TWO ISSUES HAVE LED
TO SLIGHT LACK IN CONSISTENCY BETWEEN OFFICES FOR POPS OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. TRIED TO MATCH UP AS BEST AS POSSIBLE. REGARDLESS...THIS
IS A MOISTURE DEPRIVED SYSTEM...SO ANY RAIN THAT DOES OCCUR IS NOT
EXPECTED TO CAUSE MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS.

ONCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH US BY TOMORROW
MORNING...EXPECT THE RETURN OF A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL ONLY TOP OFF IN THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60 ONCE MORE. ALTHOUGH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HAVE
EXITED...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE ON ITS TRANSITION SOUTHWARD
TOWARDS THE VIRGINIAS...PULLING THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH
IT. STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO
CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO EASTERN KY OFF THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. THIS
MOISTURE WILL BE VERY WEAK...BUT UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE FAR EAST COULD
BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS IN THIS AREA BOTH TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. EXPECT LITTLE IMPACT FROM THIS...WITH ONLY
VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE APPALACHIANS AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...IN THE PROCESS OF FORMING A LARGE CLOSED LOW
AT ITS BASE AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE MEANDERING NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. IT WILL PUT OUR LOCAL AREA IN A REGION OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE FLOW...FAVORING LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SHOWERS. AS THE ENTIRE SET-UP SLOWLY SHIFTS
EASTWARD...IT SHOULD TAKE ANY SHOWERS WITH IT BY WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE
RIDGE WILL THEN BE OUR DOMINANT FEATURE INTO FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY
EVENING BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEARING
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS SOME LIGHT PRECIP WITH THIS ON
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS WAS NOT THE CASE IN THE PREVIOUS RUN...AND
THE GFS IS STILL BASICALLY DRY. WILL STICK WITH POPS BELOW THE 20
PERCENT THRESHOLD AT THIS POINT...KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY. A COOL
AIR MASS AND SUFFICIENT RADIATING AT NIGHT WILL PRESENT A
POSSIBILITY OF FROST FOR THE FIRST FEW NIGHTS...MAINLY IN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE AVIATION PERIOD ON THE
BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT AT SME AND LOZ...BUT VIS
SHOULDN/T GET ANY WORSE THAN MVFR FROM THIS. CIGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
AND LOWER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY...BUT LATEST SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING THE LOWEST CLOUD DECK AROUND 3 TO 4K FEET WITH ONLY SCT CIGS
AT BEST. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 KTS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JMW








000
FXUS63 KJKL 200901
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
501 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE REX BLOCK PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE CONUS THIS MORNING...WITH
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS BEING INFLUENCED BY A STRONG TROUGHING
PATTERN. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUR MAIN WEATHER DRIVER FOR
THE SHORT TERM TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. DURING THE DAY TODAY...A
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING TO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY
TOMORROW NIGHT IT WILL STRENGTHEN INTO A CLOSED LOW...THEN DIVE
SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...REACHING THE VIRGINIAS BY TUESDAY
EVENING. HERE IT WILL STALL OUT BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING UP THE NEW
ENGLAND SEA BOARD DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

FOR TODAY...AS THE SHORTWAVE STRENGTHENS...IT WILL DRIVE A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. FROM THIS SURFACE SYSTEM WILL EXTEND A COLD FRONT. AS THE LOW
MOVES...THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP FROM NW TO THE SE...AND EVENTUALLY
TRAVERSE EASTERN KY LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AS
SUCH...UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY PROTRUDED INTO THE REGION
THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM. A WEAK SCATTERED LINE OF
RAIN SHOWERS IS NOT FAR BEHIND...CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN OH...IN...AND WESTERN KY. SO FAR THESE SHOWERS ARE SHOWING
UP ON THE RADAR AS VERY LIGHT...WITH LITTLE IMPACTS EXPECTED.
UNFORTUNATELY...LATEST MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME COMING TO A
CONCLUSION ABOUT THE PRECIP AS IT REACHES EASTERN KY AND CONTINUES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE
THE BEST QPF AND POPS WILL BE LOCATED CONTINUES TO DIFFER FROM MODEL
TO MODEL. THIS WAS FURTHER COMPLICATED BY THE LACK OF 0Z DATA WHILE
CREATING THE FORECAST DUE TO A NCF ISSUE. THESE TWO ISSUES HAVE LED
TO SLIGHT LACK IN CONSISTENCY BETWEEN OFFICES FOR POPS OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. TRIED TO MATCH UP AS BEST AS POSSIBLE. REGARDLESS...THIS
IS A MOISTURE DEPRIVED SYSTEM...SO ANY RAIN THAT DOES OCCUR IS NOT
EXPECTED TO CAUSE MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS.

ONCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH US BY TOMORROW
MORNING...EXPECT THE RETURN OF A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL ONLY TOP OFF IN THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60 ONCE MORE. ALTHOUGH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HAVE
EXITED...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE ON ITS TRANSITION SOUTHWARD
TOWARDS THE VIRGINIAS...PULLING THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH
IT. STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO
CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO EASTERN KY OFF THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. THIS
MOISTURE WILL BE VERY WEAK...BUT UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE FAR EAST COULD
BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS IN THIS AREA BOTH TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. EXPECT LITTLE IMPACT FROM THIS...WITH ONLY
VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE APPALACHIANS AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...IN THE PROCESS OF FORMING A LARGE CLOSED LOW
AT ITS BASE AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE MEANDERING NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. IT WILL PUT OUR LOCAL AREA IN A REGION OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE FLOW...FAVORING LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SHOWERS. AS THE ENTIRE SET-UP SLOWLY SHIFTS
EASTWARD...IT SHOULD TAKE ANY SHOWERS WITH IT BY WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE
RIDGE WILL THEN BE OUR DOMINANT FEATURE INTO FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY
EVENING BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEARING
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS SOME LIGHT PRECIP WITH THIS ON
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS WAS NOT THE CASE IN THE PREVIOUS RUN...AND
THE GFS IS STILL BASICALLY DRY. WILL STICK WITH POPS BELOW THE 20
PERCENT THRESHOLD AT THIS POINT...KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY. A COOL
AIR MASS AND SUFFICIENT RADIATING AT NIGHT WILL PRESENT A
POSSIBILITY OF FROST FOR THE FIRST FEW NIGHTS...MAINLY IN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE AVIATION PERIOD ON THE
BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT AT SME AND LOZ...BUT VIS
SHOULDN/T GET ANY WORSE THAN MVFR FROM THIS. CIGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
AND LOWER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY...BUT LATEST SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING THE LOWEST CLOUD DECK AROUND 3 TO 4K FEET WITH ONLY SCT CIGS
AT BEST. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 KTS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JMW







000
FXUS63 KJKL 200759
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
359 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE REX BLOCK PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE CONUS THIS MORNING...WITH
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS BEING INFLUENCED BY A STRONG TROUGHING
PATTERN. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUR MAIN WEATHER DRIVER FOR
THE SHORT TERM TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. DURING THE DAY TODAY...A
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING TO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY
TOMORROW NIGHT IT WILL STRENGTHEN INTO A CLOSED LOW...THEN DIVE
SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...REACHING THE VIRGINIAS BY TUESDAY
EVENING. HERE IT WILL STALL OUT BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING UP THE NEW
ENGLAND SEA BOARD DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

FOR TODAY...AS THE SHORTWAVE STRENGTHENS...IT WILL DRIVE A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. FROM THIS SURFACE SYSTEM WILL EXTEND A COLD FRONT. AS THE LOW
MOVES...THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP FROM NW TO THE SE...AND EVENTUALLY
TRAVERSE EASTERN KY LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AS
SUCH...UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY PROTRUDED INTO THE REGION
THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM. A WEAK SCATTERED LINE OF
RAIN SHOWERS IS NOT FAR BEHIND...CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN OH...IN...AND WESTERN KY. SO FAR THESE SHOWERS ARE SHOWING
UP ON THE RADAR AS VERY LIGHT...WITH LITTLE IMPACTS EXPECTED.
UNFORTUNATELY...LATEST MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME COMING TO A
CONCLUSION ABOUT THE PRECIP AS IT REACHES EASTERN KY AND CONTINUES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE
THE BEST QPF AND POPS WILL BE LOCATED CONTINUES TO DIFFER FROM MODEL
TO MODEL. THIS WAS FURTHER COMPLICATED BY THE LACK OF 0Z DATA WHILE
CREATING THE FORECAST DUE TO A NCF ISSUE. THESE TWO ISSUES HAVE LED
TO SLIGHT LACK IN CONSISTENCY BETWEEN OFFICES FOR POPS OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. TRIED TO MATCH UP AS BEST AS POSSIBLE. REGARDLESS...THIS
IS A MOISTURE DEPRIVED SYSTEM...SO ANY RAIN THAT DOES OCCUR IS NOT
EXPECTED TO CAUSE MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS.

ONCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH US BY TOMORROW
MORNING...EXPECT THE RETURN OF A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL ONLY TOP OFF IN THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60 ONCE MORE. ALTHOUGH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HAVE
EXITED...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE ON ITS TRANSITION SOUTHWARD
TOWARDS THE VIRGINIAS...PULLING THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH
IT. STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO
CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO EASTERN KY OFF THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. THIS
MOISTURE WILL BE VERY WEAK...BUT UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE FAR EAST COULD
BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS IN THIS AREA BOTH TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. EXPECT LITTLE IMPACT FROM THIS...WITH ONLY
VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BE THE HIGHLIGHT OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND KEEPING
THE THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE WEEK...SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. THE TROUGH WILL EXIT LATE IN THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR A
MODEST TEMPERATURE RECOVERY AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH A
DRYER PERIOD ANTICIPATED.

THE PERIOD WILL START OFF AS A SHORTWAVE IS EXITING THE AREA...WITH
ANOTHER ONE DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE NORTH. MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THIS
WAVE A BIT FARTHER EAST TODAY...SO HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK TO THE
EAST...KEEPING MUCH OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...A FEW
SPRINKLES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE TROUGH. WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF A SHOWER IN THE EAST AND
SPRINKLES ELSEWHERE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE TROUGH WILL CREEP EASTWARD...ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO START
TO BUILD BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY CUT US OFF FROM THE
INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH...AND ALLOW FOR SKIES TO CLEAR OFF AND
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO REBOUND BY THURSDAY. THE RIDGE TO THE
WEST WILL REALLY PUSH EAST BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A
MORE MODEST RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES AND KEEPING THE DRY WEATHER
AROUND FOR SEVERAL DAYS. AS IT LOOKS NOW...THIS RIDGE MAY PERSIST
FOR SOME TIME...KEEPING THE WEATHER DRY INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE AVIATION PERIOD ON THE
BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT AT SME AND LOZ...BUT VIS
SHOULDN/T GET ANY WORSE THAN MVFR FROM THIS. CIGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
AND LOWER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY...BUT LATEST SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING THE LOWEST CLOUD DECK AROUND 3 TO 4K FEET WITH ONLY SCT CIGS
AT BEST. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 KTS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JMW








000
FXUS63 KJKL 200759
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
359 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE REX BLOCK PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE CONUS THIS MORNING...WITH
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS BEING INFLUENCED BY A STRONG TROUGHING
PATTERN. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUR MAIN WEATHER DRIVER FOR
THE SHORT TERM TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. DURING THE DAY TODAY...A
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING TO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY
TOMORROW NIGHT IT WILL STRENGTHEN INTO A CLOSED LOW...THEN DIVE
SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...REACHING THE VIRGINIAS BY TUESDAY
EVENING. HERE IT WILL STALL OUT BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING UP THE NEW
ENGLAND SEA BOARD DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

FOR TODAY...AS THE SHORTWAVE STRENGTHENS...IT WILL DRIVE A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. FROM THIS SURFACE SYSTEM WILL EXTEND A COLD FRONT. AS THE LOW
MOVES...THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP FROM NW TO THE SE...AND EVENTUALLY
TRAVERSE EASTERN KY LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AS
SUCH...UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY PROTRUDED INTO THE REGION
THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM. A WEAK SCATTERED LINE OF
RAIN SHOWERS IS NOT FAR BEHIND...CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN OH...IN...AND WESTERN KY. SO FAR THESE SHOWERS ARE SHOWING
UP ON THE RADAR AS VERY LIGHT...WITH LITTLE IMPACTS EXPECTED.
UNFORTUNATELY...LATEST MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME COMING TO A
CONCLUSION ABOUT THE PRECIP AS IT REACHES EASTERN KY AND CONTINUES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE
THE BEST QPF AND POPS WILL BE LOCATED CONTINUES TO DIFFER FROM MODEL
TO MODEL. THIS WAS FURTHER COMPLICATED BY THE LACK OF 0Z DATA WHILE
CREATING THE FORECAST DUE TO A NCF ISSUE. THESE TWO ISSUES HAVE LED
TO SLIGHT LACK IN CONSISTENCY BETWEEN OFFICES FOR POPS OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. TRIED TO MATCH UP AS BEST AS POSSIBLE. REGARDLESS...THIS
IS A MOISTURE DEPRIVED SYSTEM...SO ANY RAIN THAT DOES OCCUR IS NOT
EXPECTED TO CAUSE MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS.

ONCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH US BY TOMORROW
MORNING...EXPECT THE RETURN OF A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL ONLY TOP OFF IN THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60 ONCE MORE. ALTHOUGH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HAVE
EXITED...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE ON ITS TRANSITION SOUTHWARD
TOWARDS THE VIRGINIAS...PULLING THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH
IT. STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO
CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO EASTERN KY OFF THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. THIS
MOISTURE WILL BE VERY WEAK...BUT UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE FAR EAST COULD
BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS IN THIS AREA BOTH TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. EXPECT LITTLE IMPACT FROM THIS...WITH ONLY
VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BE THE HIGHLIGHT OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND KEEPING
THE THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE WEEK...SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. THE TROUGH WILL EXIT LATE IN THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR A
MODEST TEMPERATURE RECOVERY AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH A
DRYER PERIOD ANTICIPATED.

THE PERIOD WILL START OFF AS A SHORTWAVE IS EXITING THE AREA...WITH
ANOTHER ONE DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE NORTH. MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THIS
WAVE A BIT FARTHER EAST TODAY...SO HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK TO THE
EAST...KEEPING MUCH OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...A FEW
SPRINKLES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE TROUGH. WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF A SHOWER IN THE EAST AND
SPRINKLES ELSEWHERE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE TROUGH WILL CREEP EASTWARD...ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO START
TO BUILD BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY CUT US OFF FROM THE
INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH...AND ALLOW FOR SKIES TO CLEAR OFF AND
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO REBOUND BY THURSDAY. THE RIDGE TO THE
WEST WILL REALLY PUSH EAST BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A
MORE MODEST RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES AND KEEPING THE DRY WEATHER
AROUND FOR SEVERAL DAYS. AS IT LOOKS NOW...THIS RIDGE MAY PERSIST
FOR SOME TIME...KEEPING THE WEATHER DRY INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE AVIATION PERIOD ON THE
BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT AT SME AND LOZ...BUT VIS
SHOULDN/T GET ANY WORSE THAN MVFR FROM THIS. CIGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
AND LOWER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY...BUT LATEST SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING THE LOWEST CLOUD DECK AROUND 3 TO 4K FEET WITH ONLY SCT CIGS
AT BEST. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 KTS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JMW







000
FXUS63 KJKL 200543
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
143 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1100 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS TO REFINE SKY COVER THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND ALSO ADJUST HOURLY TEMPS IN THE NEAR TERM PER THE LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS. THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH AN ONGOING 5 TO 10 DEGREE TEMP
SPLIT BETWEEN VALLEYS AND RIDGES AT THE MOMENT. ALSO SOME FOG HAS
DEVELOPED AT EKQ AND DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING A BIT AHEAD OF FORECAST
WHICH DOES NOT PORTENT WELL FOR EVEN PATCHY FROST. THE UPDATES HAVE
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 805 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BASICALLY CENTERED OVER EAST
KENTUCKY. ON SATELLITE...JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE SEEN DRIFTING INTO
THE AREA THIS EVENING. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON A
DECENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE
SPREAD INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE BIG QUESTION IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
FROST AND FOG. GIVEN THAT THE DEWPOINTS REMAINED RATHER HIGH THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S...FOG APPEARS TO BE THE
FAVORED DEVELOPMENT IN THE VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE RIVERS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION PATCHY FROST FOR THE VALLEYS...THOUGH MOST PLACES
WILL LIKELY END UP FROST FREE. THE FROST POTENTIAL IS MENTION IN THE
HWO BUT WILL ISSUE AN SPS TO GIVE IT A BIT MORE VISIBILITY ALONG WITH
THIS FORECAST UPDATE. OTHERWISE...JUST TWEAKED TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE NIGHT TO REFLECT THE LATEST OBS...TRENDS...
CONSSHORT GUIDANCE...AND RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE VALLEYS. THE
UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE MODELS START OUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE
PATTERN CURRENTLY OVER THE CONUS IS WHAT WOULD BE CONSIDERED A REX
BLOCK...WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN US AND JUST OFF THE WEST
COAST...A BLOCKING RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND A CUT OFF LOW SOUTH
OF THE BLOCKING RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. CLOSER TO HOME...THE
AREA WILL BE UNDER A SURFACE HIGH AND WILL BE UNDER NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE LONG
WAVE AND WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AS A RESULT OF THIS SHORT WAVE...SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

THE MAIN ISSUE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PATCHY FROST TOMORROW MORNING. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS...DRY AIR...AND
CLEAR SKIES...ALLOWING THE TEMPERATURES TO DROP AND SOME PATCHY
FROST TO FORM.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BE THE HIGHLIGHT OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND KEEPING
THE THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE WEEK...SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. THE TROUGH WILL EXIT LATE IN THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR A
MODEST TEMPERATURE RECOVERY AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH A
DRYER PERIOD ANTICIPATED.

THE PERIOD WILL START OFF AS A SHORTWAVE IS EXITING THE AREA...WITH
ANOTHER ONE DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE NORTH. MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THIS
WAVE A BIT FARTHER EAST TODAY...SO HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK TO THE
EAST...KEEPING MUCH OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...A FEW
SPRINKLES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE TROUGH. WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF A SHOWER IN THE EAST AND
SPRINKLES ELSEWHERE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE TROUGH WILL CREEP EASTWARD...ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO START
TO BUILD BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY CUT US OFF FROM THE
INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH...AND ALLOW FOR SKIES TO CLEAR OFF AND
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO REBOUND BY THURSDAY. THE RIDGE TO THE
WEST WILL REALLY PUSH EAST BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A
MORE MODEST RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES AND KEEPING THE DRY WEATHER
AROUND FOR SEVERAL DAYS. AS IT LOOKS NOW...THIS RIDGE MAY PERSIST
FOR SOME TIME...KEEPING THE WEATHER DRY INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE AVIATION PERIOD ON THE
BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT AT SME AND LOZ...BUT VIS
SHOULDN/T GET ANY WORSE THAN MVFR FROM THIS. CIGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
AND LOWER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY...BUT LATEST SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING THE LOWEST CLOUD DECK AROUND 3 TO 4K FEET WITH ONLY SCT CIGS
AT BEST. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 KTS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JMW








000
FXUS63 KJKL 200543
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
143 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1100 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS TO REFINE SKY COVER THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND ALSO ADJUST HOURLY TEMPS IN THE NEAR TERM PER THE LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS. THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH AN ONGOING 5 TO 10 DEGREE TEMP
SPLIT BETWEEN VALLEYS AND RIDGES AT THE MOMENT. ALSO SOME FOG HAS
DEVELOPED AT EKQ AND DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING A BIT AHEAD OF FORECAST
WHICH DOES NOT PORTENT WELL FOR EVEN PATCHY FROST. THE UPDATES HAVE
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 805 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BASICALLY CENTERED OVER EAST
KENTUCKY. ON SATELLITE...JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE SEEN DRIFTING INTO
THE AREA THIS EVENING. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON A
DECENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE
SPREAD INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE BIG QUESTION IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
FROST AND FOG. GIVEN THAT THE DEWPOINTS REMAINED RATHER HIGH THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S...FOG APPEARS TO BE THE
FAVORED DEVELOPMENT IN THE VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE RIVERS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION PATCHY FROST FOR THE VALLEYS...THOUGH MOST PLACES
WILL LIKELY END UP FROST FREE. THE FROST POTENTIAL IS MENTION IN THE
HWO BUT WILL ISSUE AN SPS TO GIVE IT A BIT MORE VISIBILITY ALONG WITH
THIS FORECAST UPDATE. OTHERWISE...JUST TWEAKED TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE NIGHT TO REFLECT THE LATEST OBS...TRENDS...
CONSSHORT GUIDANCE...AND RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE VALLEYS. THE
UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE MODELS START OUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE
PATTERN CURRENTLY OVER THE CONUS IS WHAT WOULD BE CONSIDERED A REX
BLOCK...WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN US AND JUST OFF THE WEST
COAST...A BLOCKING RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND A CUT OFF LOW SOUTH
OF THE BLOCKING RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. CLOSER TO HOME...THE
AREA WILL BE UNDER A SURFACE HIGH AND WILL BE UNDER NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE LONG
WAVE AND WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AS A RESULT OF THIS SHORT WAVE...SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

THE MAIN ISSUE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PATCHY FROST TOMORROW MORNING. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS...DRY AIR...AND
CLEAR SKIES...ALLOWING THE TEMPERATURES TO DROP AND SOME PATCHY
FROST TO FORM.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BE THE HIGHLIGHT OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND KEEPING
THE THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE WEEK...SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. THE TROUGH WILL EXIT LATE IN THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR A
MODEST TEMPERATURE RECOVERY AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH A
DRYER PERIOD ANTICIPATED.

THE PERIOD WILL START OFF AS A SHORTWAVE IS EXITING THE AREA...WITH
ANOTHER ONE DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE NORTH. MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THIS
WAVE A BIT FARTHER EAST TODAY...SO HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK TO THE
EAST...KEEPING MUCH OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...A FEW
SPRINKLES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE TROUGH. WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF A SHOWER IN THE EAST AND
SPRINKLES ELSEWHERE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE TROUGH WILL CREEP EASTWARD...ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO START
TO BUILD BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY CUT US OFF FROM THE
INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH...AND ALLOW FOR SKIES TO CLEAR OFF AND
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO REBOUND BY THURSDAY. THE RIDGE TO THE
WEST WILL REALLY PUSH EAST BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A
MORE MODEST RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES AND KEEPING THE DRY WEATHER
AROUND FOR SEVERAL DAYS. AS IT LOOKS NOW...THIS RIDGE MAY PERSIST
FOR SOME TIME...KEEPING THE WEATHER DRY INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE AVIATION PERIOD ON THE
BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT AT SME AND LOZ...BUT VIS
SHOULDN/T GET ANY WORSE THAN MVFR FROM THIS. CIGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
AND LOWER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY...BUT LATEST SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING THE LOWEST CLOUD DECK AROUND 3 TO 4K FEET WITH ONLY SCT CIGS
AT BEST. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 KTS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JMW







000
FXUS63 KJKL 200300 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1100 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1100 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS TO REFINE SKY COVER THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND ALSO ADJUST HOURLY TEMPS IN THE NEAR TERM PER THE LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS. THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH AN ONGOING 5 TO 10 DEGREE TEMP
SPLIT BETWEEN VALLEYS AND RIDGES AT THE MOMENT. ALSO SOME FOG HAS
DEVELOPED AT EKQ AND DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING A BIT AHEAD OF FORECAST
WHICH DOES NOT PORTENT WELL FOR EVEN PATCHY FROST. THE UPDATES HAVE
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 805 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BASICALLY CENTERED OVER EAST
KENTUCKY. ON SATELLITE...JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE SEEN DRIFTING INTO
THE AREA THIS EVENING. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON A
DECENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE
SPREAD INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE BIG QUESTION IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
FROST AND FOG. GIVEN THAT THE DEWPOINTS REMAINED RATHER HIGH THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S...FOG APPEARS TO BE THE
FAVORED DEVELOPMENT IN THE VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE RIVERS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION PATCHY FROST FOR THE VALLEYS...THOUGH MOST PLACES
WILL LIKELY END UP FROST FREE. THE FROST POTENTIAL IS MENTION IN THE
HWO BUT WILL ISSUE AN SPS TO GIVE IT A BIT MORE VISIBILITY ALONG WITH
THIS FORECAST UPDATE. OTHERWISE...JUST TWEAKED TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE NIGHT TO REFLECT THE LATEST OBS...TRENDS...
CONSSHORT GUIDANCE...AND RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE VALLEYS. THE
UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE MODELS START OUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE
PATTERN CURRENTLY OVER THE CONUS IS WHAT WOULD BE CONSIDERED A REX
BLOCK...WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN US AND JUST OFF THE WEST
COAST...A BLOCKING RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND A CUT OFF LOW SOUTH
OF THE BLOCKING RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. CLOSER TO HOME...THE
AREA WILL BE UNDER A SURFACE HIGH AND WILL BE UNDER NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE LONG
WAVE AND WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AS A RESULT OF THIS SHORT WAVE...SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

THE MAIN ISSUE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PATCHY FROST TOMORROW MORNING. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS...DRY AIR...AND
CLEAR SKIES...ALLOWING THE TEMPERATURES TO DROP AND SOME PATCHY
FROST TO FORM.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BE THE HIGHLIGHT OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND KEEPING
THE THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE WEEK...SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. THE TROUGH WILL EXIT LATE IN THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR A
MODEST TEMPERATURE RECOVERY AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH A
DRYER PERIOD ANTICIPATED.

THE PERIOD WILL START OFF AS A SHORTWAVE IS EXITING THE AREA...WITH
ANOTHER ONE DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE NORTH. MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THIS
WAVE A BIT FARTHER EAST TODAY...SO HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK TO THE
EAST...KEEPING MUCH OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...A FEW
SPRINKLES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE TROUGH. WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF A SHOWER IN THE EAST AND
SPRINKLES ELSEWHERE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE TROUGH WILL CREEP EASTWARD...ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO START
TO BUILD BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY CUT US OFF FROM THE
INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH...AND ALLOW FOR SKIES TO CLEAR OFF AND
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO REBOUND BY THURSDAY. THE RIDGE TO THE
WEST WILL REALLY PUSH EAST BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A
MORE MODEST RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES AND KEEPING THE DRY WEATHER
AROUND FOR SEVERAL DAYS. AS IT LOOKS NOW...THIS RIDGE MAY PERSIST
FOR SOME TIME...KEEPING THE WEATHER DRY INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 800 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE AVIATION PERIOD ON THE
BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT AT SME AND LOZ...BUT VIS
SHOULDN/T GET ANY WORSE THAN MVFR FROM THIS. CIGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
AND LOWER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY...BUT REMAIN AT 5K FEET OR
HIGHER. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 KTS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF





000
FXUS63 KJKL 200300 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1100 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1100 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS TO REFINE SKY COVER THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND ALSO ADJUST HOURLY TEMPS IN THE NEAR TERM PER THE LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS. THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH AN ONGOING 5 TO 10 DEGREE TEMP
SPLIT BETWEEN VALLEYS AND RIDGES AT THE MOMENT. ALSO SOME FOG HAS
DEVELOPED AT EKQ AND DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING A BIT AHEAD OF FORECAST
WHICH DOES NOT PORTENT WELL FOR EVEN PATCHY FROST. THE UPDATES HAVE
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 805 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BASICALLY CENTERED OVER EAST
KENTUCKY. ON SATELLITE...JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE SEEN DRIFTING INTO
THE AREA THIS EVENING. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON A
DECENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE
SPREAD INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE BIG QUESTION IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
FROST AND FOG. GIVEN THAT THE DEWPOINTS REMAINED RATHER HIGH THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S...FOG APPEARS TO BE THE
FAVORED DEVELOPMENT IN THE VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE RIVERS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION PATCHY FROST FOR THE VALLEYS...THOUGH MOST PLACES
WILL LIKELY END UP FROST FREE. THE FROST POTENTIAL IS MENTION IN THE
HWO BUT WILL ISSUE AN SPS TO GIVE IT A BIT MORE VISIBILITY ALONG WITH
THIS FORECAST UPDATE. OTHERWISE...JUST TWEAKED TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE NIGHT TO REFLECT THE LATEST OBS...TRENDS...
CONSSHORT GUIDANCE...AND RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE VALLEYS. THE
UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE MODELS START OUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE
PATTERN CURRENTLY OVER THE CONUS IS WHAT WOULD BE CONSIDERED A REX
BLOCK...WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN US AND JUST OFF THE WEST
COAST...A BLOCKING RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND A CUT OFF LOW SOUTH
OF THE BLOCKING RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. CLOSER TO HOME...THE
AREA WILL BE UNDER A SURFACE HIGH AND WILL BE UNDER NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE LONG
WAVE AND WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AS A RESULT OF THIS SHORT WAVE...SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

THE MAIN ISSUE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PATCHY FROST TOMORROW MORNING. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS...DRY AIR...AND
CLEAR SKIES...ALLOWING THE TEMPERATURES TO DROP AND SOME PATCHY
FROST TO FORM.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BE THE HIGHLIGHT OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND KEEPING
THE THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE WEEK...SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. THE TROUGH WILL EXIT LATE IN THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR A
MODEST TEMPERATURE RECOVERY AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH A
DRYER PERIOD ANTICIPATED.

THE PERIOD WILL START OFF AS A SHORTWAVE IS EXITING THE AREA...WITH
ANOTHER ONE DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE NORTH. MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THIS
WAVE A BIT FARTHER EAST TODAY...SO HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK TO THE
EAST...KEEPING MUCH OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...A FEW
SPRINKLES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE TROUGH. WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF A SHOWER IN THE EAST AND
SPRINKLES ELSEWHERE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE TROUGH WILL CREEP EASTWARD...ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO START
TO BUILD BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY CUT US OFF FROM THE
INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH...AND ALLOW FOR SKIES TO CLEAR OFF AND
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO REBOUND BY THURSDAY. THE RIDGE TO THE
WEST WILL REALLY PUSH EAST BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A
MORE MODEST RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES AND KEEPING THE DRY WEATHER
AROUND FOR SEVERAL DAYS. AS IT LOOKS NOW...THIS RIDGE MAY PERSIST
FOR SOME TIME...KEEPING THE WEATHER DRY INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 800 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE AVIATION PERIOD ON THE
BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT AT SME AND LOZ...BUT VIS
SHOULDN/T GET ANY WORSE THAN MVFR FROM THIS. CIGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
AND LOWER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY...BUT REMAIN AT 5K FEET OR
HIGHER. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 KTS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF






000
FXUS63 KJKL 200005 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
805 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 805 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BASICALLY CENTERED OVER EAST
KENTUCKY. ON SATELLITE...JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE SEEN DRIFTING INTO
THE AREA THIS EVENING. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON A
DECENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE
SPREAD INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE BIG QUESTION IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
FROST AND FOG. GIVEN THAT THE DEWPOINTS REMAINED RATHER HIGH THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S...FOG APPEARS TO BE THE
FAVORED DEVELOPMENT IN THE VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE RIVERS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION PATCHY FROST FOR THE VALLEYS...THOUGH MOST PLACES
WILL LIKELY END UP FROST FREE. THE FROST POTENTIAL IS MENTION IN THE
HWO BUT WILL ISSUE AN SPS TO GIVE IT A BIT MORE VISIBILITY ALONG WITH
THIS FORECAST UPDATE. OTHERWISE...JUST TWEAKED TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE NIGHT TO REFLECT THE LATEST OBS...TRENDS...
CONSSHORT GUIDANCE...AND RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE VALLEYS. THE
UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE MODELS START OUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE
PATTERN CURRENTLY OVER THE CONUS IS WHAT WOULD BE CONSIDERED A REX
BLOCK...WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN US AND JUST OFF THE WEST
COAST...A BLOCKING RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND A CUT OFF LOW SOUTH
OF THE BLOCKING RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. CLOSER TO HOME...THE
AREA WILL BE UNDER A SURFACE HIGH AND WILL BE UNDER NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE LONG
WAVE AND WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AS A RESULT OF THIS SHORT WAVE...SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

THE MAIN ISSUE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PATCHY FROST TOMORROW MORNING. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS...DRY AIR...AND
CLEAR SKIES...ALLOWING THE TEMPERATURES TO DROP AND SOME PATCHY
FROST TO FORM.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BE THE HIGHLIGHT OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND KEEPING
THE THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE WEEK...SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. THE TROUGH WILL EXIT LATE IN THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR A
MODEST TEMPERATURE RECOVERY AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH A
DRYER PERIOD ANTICIPATED.

THE PERIOD WILL START OFF AS A SHORTWAVE IS EXITING THE AREA...WITH
ANOTHER ONE DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE NORTH. MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THIS
WAVE A BIT FARTHER EAST TODAY...SO HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK TO THE
EAST...KEEPING MUCH OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...A FEW
SPRINKLES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE TROUGH. WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF A SHOWER IN THE EAST AND
SPRINKLES ELSEWHERE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE TROUGH WILL CREEP EASTWARD...ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO START
TO BUILD BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY CUT US OFF FROM THE
INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH...AND ALLOW FOR SKIES TO CLEAR OFF AND
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO REBOUND BY THURSDAY. THE RIDGE TO THE
WEST WILL REALLY PUSH EAST BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A
MORE MODEST RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES AND KEEPING THE DRY WEATHER
AROUND FOR SEVERAL DAYS. AS IT LOOKS NOW...THIS RIDGE MAY PERSIST
FOR SOME TIME...KEEPING THE WEATHER DRY INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 800 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE AVIATION PERIOD ON THE
BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT AT SME AND LOZ...BUT VIS
SHOULDN/T GET ANY WORSE THAN MVFR FROM THIS. CIGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
AND LOWER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY...BUT REMAIN AT 5K FEET OR
HIGHER. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 KTS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF






000
FXUS63 KJKL 200005 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
805 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 805 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BASICALLY CENTERED OVER EAST
KENTUCKY. ON SATELLITE...JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE SEEN DRIFTING INTO
THE AREA THIS EVENING. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON A
DECENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE
SPREAD INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE BIG QUESTION IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
FROST AND FOG. GIVEN THAT THE DEWPOINTS REMAINED RATHER HIGH THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S...FOG APPEARS TO BE THE
FAVORED DEVELOPMENT IN THE VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE RIVERS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION PATCHY FROST FOR THE VALLEYS...THOUGH MOST PLACES
WILL LIKELY END UP FROST FREE. THE FROST POTENTIAL IS MENTION IN THE
HWO BUT WILL ISSUE AN SPS TO GIVE IT A BIT MORE VISIBILITY ALONG WITH
THIS FORECAST UPDATE. OTHERWISE...JUST TWEAKED TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE NIGHT TO REFLECT THE LATEST OBS...TRENDS...
CONSSHORT GUIDANCE...AND RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE VALLEYS. THE
UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE MODELS START OUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE
PATTERN CURRENTLY OVER THE CONUS IS WHAT WOULD BE CONSIDERED A REX
BLOCK...WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN US AND JUST OFF THE WEST
COAST...A BLOCKING RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND A CUT OFF LOW SOUTH
OF THE BLOCKING RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. CLOSER TO HOME...THE
AREA WILL BE UNDER A SURFACE HIGH AND WILL BE UNDER NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE LONG
WAVE AND WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AS A RESULT OF THIS SHORT WAVE...SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

THE MAIN ISSUE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PATCHY FROST TOMORROW MORNING. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS...DRY AIR...AND
CLEAR SKIES...ALLOWING THE TEMPERATURES TO DROP AND SOME PATCHY
FROST TO FORM.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BE THE HIGHLIGHT OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND KEEPING
THE THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE WEEK...SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. THE TROUGH WILL EXIT LATE IN THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR A
MODEST TEMPERATURE RECOVERY AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH A
DRYER PERIOD ANTICIPATED.

THE PERIOD WILL START OFF AS A SHORTWAVE IS EXITING THE AREA...WITH
ANOTHER ONE DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE NORTH. MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THIS
WAVE A BIT FARTHER EAST TODAY...SO HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK TO THE
EAST...KEEPING MUCH OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...A FEW
SPRINKLES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE TROUGH. WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF A SHOWER IN THE EAST AND
SPRINKLES ELSEWHERE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE TROUGH WILL CREEP EASTWARD...ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO START
TO BUILD BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY CUT US OFF FROM THE
INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH...AND ALLOW FOR SKIES TO CLEAR OFF AND
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO REBOUND BY THURSDAY. THE RIDGE TO THE
WEST WILL REALLY PUSH EAST BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A
MORE MODEST RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES AND KEEPING THE DRY WEATHER
AROUND FOR SEVERAL DAYS. AS IT LOOKS NOW...THIS RIDGE MAY PERSIST
FOR SOME TIME...KEEPING THE WEATHER DRY INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 800 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE AVIATION PERIOD ON THE
BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT AT SME AND LOZ...BUT VIS
SHOULDN/T GET ANY WORSE THAN MVFR FROM THIS. CIGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
AND LOWER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY...BUT REMAIN AT 5K FEET OR
HIGHER. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 KTS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF





000
FXUS63 KJKL 200005 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
805 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 805 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BASICALLY CENTERED OVER EAST
KENTUCKY. ON SATELLITE...JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE SEEN DRIFTING INTO
THE AREA THIS EVENING. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON A
DECENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE
SPREAD INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE BIG QUESTION IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
FROST AND FOG. GIVEN THAT THE DEWPOINTS REMAINED RATHER HIGH THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S...FOG APPEARS TO BE THE
FAVORED DEVELOPMENT IN THE VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE RIVERS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION PATCHY FROST FOR THE VALLEYS...THOUGH MOST PLACES
WILL LIKELY END UP FROST FREE. THE FROST POTENTIAL IS MENTION IN THE
HWO BUT WILL ISSUE AN SPS TO GIVE IT A BIT MORE VISIBILITY ALONG WITH
THIS FORECAST UPDATE. OTHERWISE...JUST TWEAKED TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE NIGHT TO REFLECT THE LATEST OBS...TRENDS...
CONSSHORT GUIDANCE...AND RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE VALLEYS. THE
UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE MODELS START OUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE
PATTERN CURRENTLY OVER THE CONUS IS WHAT WOULD BE CONSIDERED A REX
BLOCK...WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN US AND JUST OFF THE WEST
COAST...A BLOCKING RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND A CUT OFF LOW SOUTH
OF THE BLOCKING RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. CLOSER TO HOME...THE
AREA WILL BE UNDER A SURFACE HIGH AND WILL BE UNDER NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE LONG
WAVE AND WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AS A RESULT OF THIS SHORT WAVE...SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

THE MAIN ISSUE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PATCHY FROST TOMORROW MORNING. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS...DRY AIR...AND
CLEAR SKIES...ALLOWING THE TEMPERATURES TO DROP AND SOME PATCHY
FROST TO FORM.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BE THE HIGHLIGHT OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND KEEPING
THE THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE WEEK...SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. THE TROUGH WILL EXIT LATE IN THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR A
MODEST TEMPERATURE RECOVERY AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH A
DRYER PERIOD ANTICIPATED.

THE PERIOD WILL START OFF AS A SHORTWAVE IS EXITING THE AREA...WITH
ANOTHER ONE DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE NORTH. MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THIS
WAVE A BIT FARTHER EAST TODAY...SO HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK TO THE
EAST...KEEPING MUCH OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...A FEW
SPRINKLES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE TROUGH. WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF A SHOWER IN THE EAST AND
SPRINKLES ELSEWHERE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE TROUGH WILL CREEP EASTWARD...ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO START
TO BUILD BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY CUT US OFF FROM THE
INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH...AND ALLOW FOR SKIES TO CLEAR OFF AND
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO REBOUND BY THURSDAY. THE RIDGE TO THE
WEST WILL REALLY PUSH EAST BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A
MORE MODEST RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES AND KEEPING THE DRY WEATHER
AROUND FOR SEVERAL DAYS. AS IT LOOKS NOW...THIS RIDGE MAY PERSIST
FOR SOME TIME...KEEPING THE WEATHER DRY INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 800 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE AVIATION PERIOD ON THE
BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT AT SME AND LOZ...BUT VIS
SHOULDN/T GET ANY WORSE THAN MVFR FROM THIS. CIGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
AND LOWER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY...BUT REMAIN AT 5K FEET OR
HIGHER. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 KTS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF






000
FXUS63 KJKL 200005 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
805 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 805 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BASICALLY CENTERED OVER EAST
KENTUCKY. ON SATELLITE...JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE SEEN DRIFTING INTO
THE AREA THIS EVENING. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON A
DECENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE
SPREAD INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE BIG QUESTION IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
FROST AND FOG. GIVEN THAT THE DEWPOINTS REMAINED RATHER HIGH THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S...FOG APPEARS TO BE THE
FAVORED DEVELOPMENT IN THE VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE RIVERS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION PATCHY FROST FOR THE VALLEYS...THOUGH MOST PLACES
WILL LIKELY END UP FROST FREE. THE FROST POTENTIAL IS MENTION IN THE
HWO BUT WILL ISSUE AN SPS TO GIVE IT A BIT MORE VISIBILITY ALONG WITH
THIS FORECAST UPDATE. OTHERWISE...JUST TWEAKED TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE NIGHT TO REFLECT THE LATEST OBS...TRENDS...
CONSSHORT GUIDANCE...AND RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE VALLEYS. THE
UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE MODELS START OUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE
PATTERN CURRENTLY OVER THE CONUS IS WHAT WOULD BE CONSIDERED A REX
BLOCK...WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN US AND JUST OFF THE WEST
COAST...A BLOCKING RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND A CUT OFF LOW SOUTH
OF THE BLOCKING RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. CLOSER TO HOME...THE
AREA WILL BE UNDER A SURFACE HIGH AND WILL BE UNDER NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE LONG
WAVE AND WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AS A RESULT OF THIS SHORT WAVE...SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

THE MAIN ISSUE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PATCHY FROST TOMORROW MORNING. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS...DRY AIR...AND
CLEAR SKIES...ALLOWING THE TEMPERATURES TO DROP AND SOME PATCHY
FROST TO FORM.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BE THE HIGHLIGHT OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND KEEPING
THE THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE WEEK...SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. THE TROUGH WILL EXIT LATE IN THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR A
MODEST TEMPERATURE RECOVERY AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH A
DRYER PERIOD ANTICIPATED.

THE PERIOD WILL START OFF AS A SHORTWAVE IS EXITING THE AREA...WITH
ANOTHER ONE DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE NORTH. MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THIS
WAVE A BIT FARTHER EAST TODAY...SO HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK TO THE
EAST...KEEPING MUCH OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...A FEW
SPRINKLES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE TROUGH. WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF A SHOWER IN THE EAST AND
SPRINKLES ELSEWHERE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE TROUGH WILL CREEP EASTWARD...ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO START
TO BUILD BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY CUT US OFF FROM THE
INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH...AND ALLOW FOR SKIES TO CLEAR OFF AND
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO REBOUND BY THURSDAY. THE RIDGE TO THE
WEST WILL REALLY PUSH EAST BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A
MORE MODEST RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES AND KEEPING THE DRY WEATHER
AROUND FOR SEVERAL DAYS. AS IT LOOKS NOW...THIS RIDGE MAY PERSIST
FOR SOME TIME...KEEPING THE WEATHER DRY INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 800 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE AVIATION PERIOD ON THE
BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT AT SME AND LOZ...BUT VIS
SHOULDN/T GET ANY WORSE THAN MVFR FROM THIS. CIGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
AND LOWER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY...BUT REMAIN AT 5K FEET OR
HIGHER. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 KTS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF





000
FXUS63 KJKL 191740
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
140 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE MODELS START OUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE
PATTERN CURRENTLY OVER THE CONUS IS WHAT WOULD BE CONSIDERED A REX
BLOCK...WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN US AND JUST OFF THE WEST
COAST...A BLOCKING RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND A CUT OFF LOW SOUTH
OF THE BLOCKING RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. CLOSER TO HOME...THE
AREA WILL BE UNDER A SURFACE HIGH AND WILL BE UNDER NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE LONG
WAVE AND WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AS A RESULT OF THIS SHORT WAVE...SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

THE MAIN ISSUE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PATCHY FROST TOMORROW MORNING. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS...DRY AIR...AND
CLEAR SKIES...ALLOWING THE TEMPERATURES TO DROP AND SOME PATCHY
FROST TO FORM.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BE THE HIGHLIGHT OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND KEEPING
THE THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE WEEK...SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. THE TROUGH WILL EXIT LATE IN THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR A
MODEST TEMPERATURE RECOVERY AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH A
DRYER PERIOD ANTICIPATED.

THE PERIOD WILL START OFF AS A SHORTWAVE IS EXITING THE AREA...WITH
ANOTHER ONE DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE NORTH. MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THIS
WAVE A BIT FARTHER EAST TODAY...SO HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK TO THE
EAST...KEEPING MUCH OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...A FEW
SPRINKLES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE TROUGH. WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF A SHOWER IN THE EAST AND
SPRINKLES ELSEWHERE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE TROUGH WILL CREEP EASTWARD...ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO START
TO BUILD BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY CUT US OFF FROM THE
INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH...AND ALLOW FOR SKIES TO CLEAR OFF AND
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO REBOUND BY THURSDAY. THE RIDGE TO THE
WEST WILL REALLY PUSH EAST BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A
MORE MODEST RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES AND KEEPING THE DRY WEATHER
AROUND FOR SEVERAL DAYS. AS IT LOOKS NOW...THIS RIDGE MAY PERSIST
FOR SOME TIME...KEEPING THE WEATHER DRY INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SKIES ARE FINALLY STARTING TO CLEAR OUT WITH VFR CONDITIONS SPREADING
ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT THE CLEARING TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. ONCE THE LOWER CLOUDS CLEAR OUT SOME CIRRUS WILL BE MOVING IN
THE AREA THIS EVENING AND THEN WILL BE LOWERING TO MIDDLE CLOUD CIGS
TOMORROW MORNING. SOME 5K CIGS WILL START SHOWING UP AROUND 15Z
TOMORROW...HOWEVER DO NOT EXPECT ANY VFR UNTIL AFTER 18Z TOMORROW.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JJ







000
FXUS63 KJKL 191740
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
140 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE MODELS START OUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE
PATTERN CURRENTLY OVER THE CONUS IS WHAT WOULD BE CONSIDERED A REX
BLOCK...WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN US AND JUST OFF THE WEST
COAST...A BLOCKING RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND A CUT OFF LOW SOUTH
OF THE BLOCKING RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. CLOSER TO HOME...THE
AREA WILL BE UNDER A SURFACE HIGH AND WILL BE UNDER NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE LONG
WAVE AND WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AS A RESULT OF THIS SHORT WAVE...SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

THE MAIN ISSUE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PATCHY FROST TOMORROW MORNING. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS...DRY AIR...AND
CLEAR SKIES...ALLOWING THE TEMPERATURES TO DROP AND SOME PATCHY
FROST TO FORM.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BE THE HIGHLIGHT OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND KEEPING
THE THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE WEEK...SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. THE TROUGH WILL EXIT LATE IN THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR A
MODEST TEMPERATURE RECOVERY AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH A
DRYER PERIOD ANTICIPATED.

THE PERIOD WILL START OFF AS A SHORTWAVE IS EXITING THE AREA...WITH
ANOTHER ONE DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE NORTH. MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THIS
WAVE A BIT FARTHER EAST TODAY...SO HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK TO THE
EAST...KEEPING MUCH OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...A FEW
SPRINKLES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE TROUGH. WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF A SHOWER IN THE EAST AND
SPRINKLES ELSEWHERE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE TROUGH WILL CREEP EASTWARD...ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO START
TO BUILD BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY CUT US OFF FROM THE
INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH...AND ALLOW FOR SKIES TO CLEAR OFF AND
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO REBOUND BY THURSDAY. THE RIDGE TO THE
WEST WILL REALLY PUSH EAST BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A
MORE MODEST RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES AND KEEPING THE DRY WEATHER
AROUND FOR SEVERAL DAYS. AS IT LOOKS NOW...THIS RIDGE MAY PERSIST
FOR SOME TIME...KEEPING THE WEATHER DRY INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SKIES ARE FINALLY STARTING TO CLEAR OUT WITH VFR CONDITIONS SPREADING
ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT THE CLEARING TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. ONCE THE LOWER CLOUDS CLEAR OUT SOME CIRRUS WILL BE MOVING IN
THE AREA THIS EVENING AND THEN WILL BE LOWERING TO MIDDLE CLOUD CIGS
TOMORROW MORNING. SOME 5K CIGS WILL START SHOWING UP AROUND 15Z
TOMORROW...HOWEVER DO NOT EXPECT ANY VFR UNTIL AFTER 18Z TOMORROW.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JJ








000
FXUS63 KJKL 191447
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1047 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL
TRENDS. ONLY MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITIES. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

DRIZZLE HAS ENDED FOR THE MOST PART...BUT LOW CLOUDS REMAIN. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST BASED ON LATEST OBS...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MOISTURE TRAPPED IN UPSLOPE FLOW UNDER AN INVERSION WAS KEEPING
CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE IN THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AS THE INVERSION LOWERS...
THE MOISTURE BEARING LAYER WILL BECOME MORE AND MORE SHALLOW. THIS
WILL EVENTUALLY PUT AN END TO DRIZZLE AND ALLOW CLOUDS TO BREAK UP
DURING THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS BREAKING
UP. HAVE HELD CLOSE TO MOS VALUES. ACTUAL READINGS COULD VARY DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF CLEARING.

TONIGHT WILL START OUT MOSTLY CLEAR WITH GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS.
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KICK IN DURING THE NIGHT AND CONTRIBUTE TO
RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES. HIGH CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND
THICKEN LATE IN THE NIGHT...AND MAY BEGIN TO IMPEDE SURFACE COOLING.
AT THIS POINT...HAVE USED VALLEY LOW TEMPS NEAR EXPECTED AFTERNOON
DEW POINTS. THIS MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A BIT OF FROST IN THE
COLDEST VALLEYS.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE OHIO VALLEY. THE CLOUD/MOISTURE BEARING LAYER WILL
LOWER DURING THE DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A PERIOD OF VIRGA
DURING THE DAY. BY EVENING...THE MOIST LAYER MAKES IT LOW ENOUGH FOR
A THREAT OF SHOWERS IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BE THE HIGHLIGHT OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND
PROVIDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FROM
MONDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
INTO MID WEEK...SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THE
EXTENDED.

THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH AN ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT. UNLIKE THE PAST FEW
SYSTEMS...THIS TROUGH LOOKS TO BE MORE MOISTURE STARVED...ESPECIALLY
IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THUS...NOT AS CONVINCED WE WILL SEE MUCH OUT OF
THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER...ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS THERE TO AT
LEAST SUPPORT A ISOLATED SHOWER OR SPRINKLE GOING INTO 0Z TUESDAY. A
STRONGER VORT MAX WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...TAKING AIM ON EASTERN KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE
MODELS TENDENCY THE LAST FEW SYSTEMS TO DOWNPLAY THE STRENGTH OF
THESE FEATURES...OPTED TO GO A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE ON THE POPS AS
THE DEGREE OF FORCING ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR DECENT
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO TUESDAY. BEST CHANCES WILL RESIDE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...WITH SOUTHWEST ZONES POSSIBLY
STAYING DRY. THE INITIAL VORT MAX WILL CREATE AN UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF
LOW OVER THE EAST COAST...KEEPING THE AREA ON THE EDGE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH THE POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL VORT
MAXES DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THIS TROUGH...THE THREAT
FOR SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR WEST ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REACH.
THUS...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW. WHILE MODELS START TO DIVERGE A
BIT ON HOW QUICKLY THE TROUGH WILL DEPART BY THURSDAY...THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS IS THAT CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A GORGEOUS STRETCH OF FALL WEATHER AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SKIES WERE CLOUDY AT TAF ISSUANCE WITH MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS...AND
A SMATTERING OF VFR. CEILINGS SHOULD BREAK UP THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON... LEAVING VFR TO LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT IN MOST LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF THE BREAK-UP IS LOW. FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN VALLEYS CONTAINING RIVERS AND LARGE STREAMS
LATE TONIGHT...RESULTING IN LOCALIZED IFR.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJ
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...HAL







000
FXUS63 KJKL 191447
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1047 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL
TRENDS. ONLY MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITIES. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

DRIZZLE HAS ENDED FOR THE MOST PART...BUT LOW CLOUDS REMAIN. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST BASED ON LATEST OBS...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MOISTURE TRAPPED IN UPSLOPE FLOW UNDER AN INVERSION WAS KEEPING
CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE IN THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AS THE INVERSION LOWERS...
THE MOISTURE BEARING LAYER WILL BECOME MORE AND MORE SHALLOW. THIS
WILL EVENTUALLY PUT AN END TO DRIZZLE AND ALLOW CLOUDS TO BREAK UP
DURING THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS BREAKING
UP. HAVE HELD CLOSE TO MOS VALUES. ACTUAL READINGS COULD VARY DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF CLEARING.

TONIGHT WILL START OUT MOSTLY CLEAR WITH GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS.
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KICK IN DURING THE NIGHT AND CONTRIBUTE TO
RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES. HIGH CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND
THICKEN LATE IN THE NIGHT...AND MAY BEGIN TO IMPEDE SURFACE COOLING.
AT THIS POINT...HAVE USED VALLEY LOW TEMPS NEAR EXPECTED AFTERNOON
DEW POINTS. THIS MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A BIT OF FROST IN THE
COLDEST VALLEYS.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE OHIO VALLEY. THE CLOUD/MOISTURE BEARING LAYER WILL
LOWER DURING THE DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A PERIOD OF VIRGA
DURING THE DAY. BY EVENING...THE MOIST LAYER MAKES IT LOW ENOUGH FOR
A THREAT OF SHOWERS IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BE THE HIGHLIGHT OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND
PROVIDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FROM
MONDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
INTO MID WEEK...SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THE
EXTENDED.

THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH AN ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT. UNLIKE THE PAST FEW
SYSTEMS...THIS TROUGH LOOKS TO BE MORE MOISTURE STARVED...ESPECIALLY
IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THUS...NOT AS CONVINCED WE WILL SEE MUCH OUT OF
THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER...ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS THERE TO AT
LEAST SUPPORT A ISOLATED SHOWER OR SPRINKLE GOING INTO 0Z TUESDAY. A
STRONGER VORT MAX WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...TAKING AIM ON EASTERN KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE
MODELS TENDENCY THE LAST FEW SYSTEMS TO DOWNPLAY THE STRENGTH OF
THESE FEATURES...OPTED TO GO A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE ON THE POPS AS
THE DEGREE OF FORCING ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR DECENT
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO TUESDAY. BEST CHANCES WILL RESIDE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...WITH SOUTHWEST ZONES POSSIBLY
STAYING DRY. THE INITIAL VORT MAX WILL CREATE AN UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF
LOW OVER THE EAST COAST...KEEPING THE AREA ON THE EDGE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH THE POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL VORT
MAXES DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THIS TROUGH...THE THREAT
FOR SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR WEST ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REACH.
THUS...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW. WHILE MODELS START TO DIVERGE A
BIT ON HOW QUICKLY THE TROUGH WILL DEPART BY THURSDAY...THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS IS THAT CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A GORGEOUS STRETCH OF FALL WEATHER AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SKIES WERE CLOUDY AT TAF ISSUANCE WITH MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS...AND
A SMATTERING OF VFR. CEILINGS SHOULD BREAK UP THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON... LEAVING VFR TO LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT IN MOST LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF THE BREAK-UP IS LOW. FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN VALLEYS CONTAINING RIVERS AND LARGE STREAMS
LATE TONIGHT...RESULTING IN LOCALIZED IFR.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJ
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...HAL








000
FXUS63 KJKL 191130
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
730 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

DRIZZLE HAS ENDED FOR THE MOST PART...BUT LOW CLOUDS REMAIN. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST BASED ON LATEST OBS...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MOISTURE TRAPPED IN UPSLOPE FLOW UNDER AN INVERSION WAS KEEPING
CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE IN THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AS THE INVERSION LOWERS...
THE MOISTURE BEARING LAYER WILL BECOME MORE AND MORE SHALLOW. THIS
WILL EVENTUALLY PUT AN END TO DRIZZLE AND ALLOW CLOUDS TO BREAK UP
DURING THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS BREAKING
UP. HAVE HELD CLOSE TO MOS VALUES. ACTUAL READINGS COULD VARY DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF CLEARING.

TONIGHT WILL START OUT MOSTLY CLEAR WITH GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS.
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KICK IN DURING THE NIGHT AND CONTRIBUTE TO
RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES. HIGH CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND
THICKEN LATE IN THE NIGHT...AND MAY BEGIN TO IMPEDE SURFACE COOLING.
AT THIS POINT...HAVE USED VALLEY LOW TEMPS NEAR EXPECTED AFTERNOON
DEW POINTS. THIS MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A BIT OF FROST IN THE
COLDEST VALLEYS.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE OHIO VALLEY. THE CLOUD/MOISTURE BEARING LAYER WILL
LOWER DURING THE DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A PERIOD OF VIRGA
DURING THE DAY. BY EVENING...THE MOIST LAYER MAKES IT LOW ENOUGH FOR
A THREAT OF SHOWERS IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BE THE HIGHLIGHT OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND
PROVIDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FROM
MONDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
INTO MID WEEK...SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THE
EXTENDED.

THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH AN ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT. UNLIKE THE PAST FEW
SYSTEMS...THIS TROUGH LOOKS TO BE MORE MOISTURE STARVED...ESPECIALLY
IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THUS...NOT AS CONVINCED WE WILL SEE MUCH OUT OF
THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER...ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS THERE TO AT
LEAST SUPPORT A ISOLATED SHOWER OR SPRINKLE GOING INTO 0Z TUESDAY. A
STRONGER VORT MAX WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...TAKING AIM ON EASTERN KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE
MODELS TENDENCY THE LAST FEW SYSTEMS TO DOWNPLAY THE STRENGTH OF
THESE FEATURES...OPTED TO GO A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE ON THE POPS AS
THE DEGREE OF FORCING ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR DECENT
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO TUESDAY. BEST CHANCES WILL RESIDE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...WITH SOUTHWEST ZONES POSSIBLY
STAYING DRY. THE INITIAL VORT MAX WILL CREATE AN UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF
LOW OVER THE EAST COAST...KEEPING THE AREA ON THE EDGE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH THE POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL VORT
MAXES DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THIS TROUGH...THE THREAT
FOR SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR WEST ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REACH.
THUS...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW. WHILE MODELS START TO DIVERGE A
BIT ON HOW QUICKLY THE TROUGH WILL DEPART BY THURSDAY...THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS IS THAT CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A GORGEOUS STRETCH OF FALL WEATHER AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SKIES WERE CLOUDY AT TAF ISSUANCE WITH MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS...AND
A SMATTERING OF VFR. CEILINGS SHOULD BREAK UP THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON... LEAVING VFR TO LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT IN MOST LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF THE BREAK-UP IS LOW. FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN VALLEYS CONTAINING RIVERS AND LARGE STREAMS
LATE TONIGHT...RESULTING IN LOCALIZED IFR.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...HAL








000
FXUS63 KJKL 191130
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
730 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

DRIZZLE HAS ENDED FOR THE MOST PART...BUT LOW CLOUDS REMAIN. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST BASED ON LATEST OBS...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MOISTURE TRAPPED IN UPSLOPE FLOW UNDER AN INVERSION WAS KEEPING
CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE IN THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AS THE INVERSION LOWERS...
THE MOISTURE BEARING LAYER WILL BECOME MORE AND MORE SHALLOW. THIS
WILL EVENTUALLY PUT AN END TO DRIZZLE AND ALLOW CLOUDS TO BREAK UP
DURING THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS BREAKING
UP. HAVE HELD CLOSE TO MOS VALUES. ACTUAL READINGS COULD VARY DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF CLEARING.

TONIGHT WILL START OUT MOSTLY CLEAR WITH GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS.
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KICK IN DURING THE NIGHT AND CONTRIBUTE TO
RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES. HIGH CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND
THICKEN LATE IN THE NIGHT...AND MAY BEGIN TO IMPEDE SURFACE COOLING.
AT THIS POINT...HAVE USED VALLEY LOW TEMPS NEAR EXPECTED AFTERNOON
DEW POINTS. THIS MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A BIT OF FROST IN THE
COLDEST VALLEYS.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE OHIO VALLEY. THE CLOUD/MOISTURE BEARING LAYER WILL
LOWER DURING THE DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A PERIOD OF VIRGA
DURING THE DAY. BY EVENING...THE MOIST LAYER MAKES IT LOW ENOUGH FOR
A THREAT OF SHOWERS IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BE THE HIGHLIGHT OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND
PROVIDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FROM
MONDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
INTO MID WEEK...SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THE
EXTENDED.

THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH AN ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT. UNLIKE THE PAST FEW
SYSTEMS...THIS TROUGH LOOKS TO BE MORE MOISTURE STARVED...ESPECIALLY
IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THUS...NOT AS CONVINCED WE WILL SEE MUCH OUT OF
THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER...ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS THERE TO AT
LEAST SUPPORT A ISOLATED SHOWER OR SPRINKLE GOING INTO 0Z TUESDAY. A
STRONGER VORT MAX WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...TAKING AIM ON EASTERN KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE
MODELS TENDENCY THE LAST FEW SYSTEMS TO DOWNPLAY THE STRENGTH OF
THESE FEATURES...OPTED TO GO A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE ON THE POPS AS
THE DEGREE OF FORCING ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR DECENT
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO TUESDAY. BEST CHANCES WILL RESIDE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...WITH SOUTHWEST ZONES POSSIBLY
STAYING DRY. THE INITIAL VORT MAX WILL CREATE AN UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF
LOW OVER THE EAST COAST...KEEPING THE AREA ON THE EDGE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH THE POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL VORT
MAXES DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THIS TROUGH...THE THREAT
FOR SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR WEST ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REACH.
THUS...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW. WHILE MODELS START TO DIVERGE A
BIT ON HOW QUICKLY THE TROUGH WILL DEPART BY THURSDAY...THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS IS THAT CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A GORGEOUS STRETCH OF FALL WEATHER AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SKIES WERE CLOUDY AT TAF ISSUANCE WITH MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS...AND
A SMATTERING OF VFR. CEILINGS SHOULD BREAK UP THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON... LEAVING VFR TO LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT IN MOST LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF THE BREAK-UP IS LOW. FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN VALLEYS CONTAINING RIVERS AND LARGE STREAMS
LATE TONIGHT...RESULTING IN LOCALIZED IFR.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...HAL







000
FXUS63 KJKL 190725
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
325 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MOISTURE TRAPPED IN UPSLOPE FLOW UNDER AN INVERSION WAS KEEPING
CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE IN THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AS THE INVERSION LOWERS THE
MOISTURE BEARING LAYER WILL BECOME MORE AND MORE SHALLOW. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY PUT AN END TO DRIZZLE AND ALLOW CLOUDS TO BREAK UP DURING
THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS BREAKING UP.
HAVE HELD CLOSE TO MOS VALUES. ACTUAL READINGS COULD VARY DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF CLEARING.

TONIGHT WILL START OUT MOSTLY CLEAR WITH GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS.
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KICK IN DURING THE NIGHT AND CONTRIBUTE TO
RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES. HIGH CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND
THICKEN LATE IN THE NIGHT...AND MAY BEGIN TO IMPEDE SURFACE COOLING.
AT THIS POINT...HAVE USED VALLEY LOW TEMPS NEAR DEW POINTS EXPECTED
IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A BIT OF FROST IN THE
COLDEST VALLEYS.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE OHIO VALLEY. THE CLOUD/MOISTURE BEARING LAYER WILL
LOWER DURING THE DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A PERIOD OF VIRGA
DURING THE DAY. BY EVENING...THE MOIST LAYER MAKES IT LOW ENOUGH FOR
A THREAT OF SHOWERS IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BE THE HIGHLIGHT OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND
PROVIDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FROM
MONDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
INTO MID WEEK...SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THE
EXTENDED.

THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH AN ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT. UNLIKE THE PAST FEW
SYSTEMS...THIS TROUGH LOOKS TO BE MORE MOISTURE STARVED...ESPECIALLY
IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THUS...NOT AS CONVINCED WE WILL SEE MUCH OUT OF
THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER...ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS THERE TO AT
LEAST SUPPORT A ISOLATED SHOWER OR SPRINKLE GOING INTO 0Z TUESDAY. A
STRONGER VORT MAX WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...TAKING AIM ON EASTERN KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE
MODELS TENDENCY THE LAST FEW SYSTEMS TO DOWNPLAY THE STRENGTH OF
THESE FEATURES...OPTED TO GO A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE ON THE POPS AS
THE DEGREE OF FORCING ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR DECENT
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO TUESDAY. BEST CHANCES WILL RESIDE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...WITH SOUTHWEST ZONES POSSIBLY
STAYING DRY. THE INITIAL VORT MAX WILL CREATE AN UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF
LOW OVER THE EAST COAST...KEEPING THE AREA ON THE EDGE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH THE POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL VORT
MAXES DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THIS TROUGH...THE THREAT
FOR SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR WEST ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REACH.
THUS...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW. WHILE MODELS START TO DIVERGE A
BIT ON HOW QUICKLY THE TROUGH WILL DEPART BY THURSDAY...THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS IS THAT CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A GORGEOUS STRETCH OF FALL WEATHER AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 203 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

CONDITIONS WERE MOSTLY MVFR AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH A
SMATTERING OF IFR AND VFR. AREAS OF DRIZZLE WERE PREVALENT NE OF THE
CUMBERLAND RIVER BASIN. THE DRIZZLE WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT...BUT
LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST IN MOST LOCATIONS INTO THE DAY SUNDAY.
CEILINGS SHOULD BREAK UP ON SUNDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...
LEAVING VFR TO FINISH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...HAL








000
FXUS63 KJKL 190725
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
325 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MOISTURE TRAPPED IN UPSLOPE FLOW UNDER AN INVERSION WAS KEEPING
CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE IN THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AS THE INVERSION LOWERS THE
MOISTURE BEARING LAYER WILL BECOME MORE AND MORE SHALLOW. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY PUT AN END TO DRIZZLE AND ALLOW CLOUDS TO BREAK UP DURING
THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS BREAKING UP.
HAVE HELD CLOSE TO MOS VALUES. ACTUAL READINGS COULD VARY DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF CLEARING.

TONIGHT WILL START OUT MOSTLY CLEAR WITH GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS.
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KICK IN DURING THE NIGHT AND CONTRIBUTE TO
RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES. HIGH CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND
THICKEN LATE IN THE NIGHT...AND MAY BEGIN TO IMPEDE SURFACE COOLING.
AT THIS POINT...HAVE USED VALLEY LOW TEMPS NEAR DEW POINTS EXPECTED
IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A BIT OF FROST IN THE
COLDEST VALLEYS.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE OHIO VALLEY. THE CLOUD/MOISTURE BEARING LAYER WILL
LOWER DURING THE DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A PERIOD OF VIRGA
DURING THE DAY. BY EVENING...THE MOIST LAYER MAKES IT LOW ENOUGH FOR
A THREAT OF SHOWERS IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BE THE HIGHLIGHT OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND
PROVIDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FROM
MONDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
INTO MID WEEK...SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THE
EXTENDED.

THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH AN ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT. UNLIKE THE PAST FEW
SYSTEMS...THIS TROUGH LOOKS TO BE MORE MOISTURE STARVED...ESPECIALLY
IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THUS...NOT AS CONVINCED WE WILL SEE MUCH OUT OF
THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER...ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS THERE TO AT
LEAST SUPPORT A ISOLATED SHOWER OR SPRINKLE GOING INTO 0Z TUESDAY. A
STRONGER VORT MAX WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...TAKING AIM ON EASTERN KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE
MODELS TENDENCY THE LAST FEW SYSTEMS TO DOWNPLAY THE STRENGTH OF
THESE FEATURES...OPTED TO GO A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE ON THE POPS AS
THE DEGREE OF FORCING ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR DECENT
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO TUESDAY. BEST CHANCES WILL RESIDE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...WITH SOUTHWEST ZONES POSSIBLY
STAYING DRY. THE INITIAL VORT MAX WILL CREATE AN UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF
LOW OVER THE EAST COAST...KEEPING THE AREA ON THE EDGE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH THE POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL VORT
MAXES DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THIS TROUGH...THE THREAT
FOR SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR WEST ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REACH.
THUS...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW. WHILE MODELS START TO DIVERGE A
BIT ON HOW QUICKLY THE TROUGH WILL DEPART BY THURSDAY...THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS IS THAT CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A GORGEOUS STRETCH OF FALL WEATHER AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 203 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

CONDITIONS WERE MOSTLY MVFR AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH A
SMATTERING OF IFR AND VFR. AREAS OF DRIZZLE WERE PREVALENT NE OF THE
CUMBERLAND RIVER BASIN. THE DRIZZLE WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT...BUT
LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST IN MOST LOCATIONS INTO THE DAY SUNDAY.
CEILINGS SHOULD BREAK UP ON SUNDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...
LEAVING VFR TO FINISH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...HAL









000
FXUS63 KJKL 190711
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
311 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 203 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

DRIZZLE IS PERSISTENT OVER ALL BUT THE SW AND FAR NW PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE ADDED IT TO THE FORECAST...AND USED A 20
PERCENT POP WHERE IT WILL BE MOST PREVALENT. AS AN INVERSION LOWERS
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...THE MOIST LAYER WILL BECOME MORE SHALLOW
AND DRIZZLE SHOULD FINALLY TAPER OFF. IN LIGHT OF OBSERVED TEMPS AND
CLOUDS HOLDING ON...HAVE RAISED MIN TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR THIS MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1024 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MADE ONE LAST UPDATE TO THE FORECAST BEFORE THE END OF THE SHIFT.
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...AND THE LATEST HRRR MODEL
DATA...ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND PATCHES OF DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH BETWEEN 4 AND 5Z TONIGHT. THE NEW
UPDATE WILL NO LONGER HAVE EVENING WORDING AND WILL FEATURE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 732 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A MINOR UPDATE TO THE FORECAST WAS REQUIRED THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS THAT INITIALLY FORMED OVER CENTRAL INDIANA HAS BECOME
QUITE ROBUST AND IS NOW MAKING ITS WAY INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. THESE
RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BECOME WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SHORT TERM
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE NEXT 3 OR 4 HOURS. THE
FORECAST UPDATE THAT IS ABOUT TO BE ISSUED WILL REFLECT THIS WITH 30
TO 50 POPS THROUGH 3Z. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST. THE RAIN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY AROUND 9Z
TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG AND FROST WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT...WITH THE FROST AFFECTING OUR DEEPEST AND MOST SHELTERED
VALLEYS WHERE THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPERIENCED TONIGHT.
THE FOG COULD FORM JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE DUE TO MOISTURE FROM RAIN THE
PAST FEW DAYS. THE MITIGATING FACTOR WITH THE FOG WILL BE THE COOL
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL LEAD INSTANCES OF FROST WHERE IT
GETS COLD ENOUGH. A ZONE UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED LATER IN THE SHIFT TO
GET RID OF STALE WORDING IN THE ZONES AND FOR ANY OTHER CHANGES THAT
MIGHT BE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING WITH IT
LOTS OF CLOUDS AND SOME SPRINKLES. THERE IS A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT
WAVE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING THIS WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THAN
WHAT WE ARE SEEING THIS AFTERNOON. DEPENDING OF HOW FAST THE SHORT
WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND HOW QUICKLY THE WIND DROPS OFF
TONIGHT...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY VALLEY FROST IN
THE WESTERN PORTION OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. TOMORROW NIGHT...THE CHANCES
FOR VALLEY FROST ARE A LITTLE HIGHER AS THE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
LINE UP BETTER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BE THE HIGHLIGHT OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND
PROVIDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FROM
MONDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
INTO MID WEEK...SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THE
EXTENDED.

THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH AN ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT. UNLIKE THE PAST FEW
SYSTEMS...THIS TROUGH LOOKS TO BE MORE MOISTURE STARVED...ESPECIALLY
IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THUS...NOT AS CONVINCED WE WILL SEE MUCH OUT OF
THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER...ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS THERE TO AT
LEAST SUPPORT A ISOLATED SHOWER OR SPRINKLE GOING INTO 0Z TUESDAY. A
STRONGER VORT MAX WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...TAKING AIM ON EASTERN KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE
MODELS TENDENCY THE LAST FEW SYSTEMS TO DOWNPLAY THE STRENGTH OF
THESE FEATURES...OPTED TO GO A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE ON THE POPS AS
THE DEGREE OF FORCING ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR DECENT
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO TUESDAY. BEST CHANCES WILL RESIDE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREAS...WITH SOUTHWEST ZONES POSSIBLY
STAYING DRY. THE INITIAL VORT MAX WILL CREATE AN UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF
LOW OVER THE EAST COAST...KEEPING THE AREA ON THE EDGE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH THE POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL
VORT MAXES DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THIS TROUGH...THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR WEST ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REACH.
THUS...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW. WHILE MODELS START TO DIVERGE A
BIT ON HOW QUICKLY THE TROUGH WILL DEPART BY THURSDAY...THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS IS THAT CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A GORGEOUS STRETCH OF FALL WEATHER AS WE HEAD INTO
NEXT WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 203 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

CONDITIONS WERE MOSTLY MVFR AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH A
SMATTERING OF IFR AND VFR. AREAS OF DRIZZLE WERE PREVALENT NE OF THE
CUMBERLAND RIVER BASIN. THE DRIZZLE WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT...BUT
LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST IN MOST LOCATIONS INTO THE DAY SUNDAY.
CEILINGS SHOULD BREAK UP ON SUNDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...
LEAVING VFR TO FINISH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...JMW/KAS
AVIATION...HAL







000
FXUS63 KJKL 190711
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
311 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 203 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

DRIZZLE IS PERSISTENT OVER ALL BUT THE SW AND FAR NW PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE ADDED IT TO THE FORECAST...AND USED A 20
PERCENT POP WHERE IT WILL BE MOST PREVALENT. AS AN INVERSION LOWERS
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...THE MOIST LAYER WILL BECOME MORE SHALLOW
AND DRIZZLE SHOULD FINALLY TAPER OFF. IN LIGHT OF OBSERVED TEMPS AND
CLOUDS HOLDING ON...HAVE RAISED MIN TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR THIS MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1024 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MADE ONE LAST UPDATE TO THE FORECAST BEFORE THE END OF THE SHIFT.
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...AND THE LATEST HRRR MODEL
DATA...ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND PATCHES OF DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH BETWEEN 4 AND 5Z TONIGHT. THE NEW
UPDATE WILL NO LONGER HAVE EVENING WORDING AND WILL FEATURE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 732 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A MINOR UPDATE TO THE FORECAST WAS REQUIRED THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS THAT INITIALLY FORMED OVER CENTRAL INDIANA HAS BECOME
QUITE ROBUST AND IS NOW MAKING ITS WAY INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. THESE
RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BECOME WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SHORT TERM
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE NEXT 3 OR 4 HOURS. THE
FORECAST UPDATE THAT IS ABOUT TO BE ISSUED WILL REFLECT THIS WITH 30
TO 50 POPS THROUGH 3Z. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST. THE RAIN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY AROUND 9Z
TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG AND FROST WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT...WITH THE FROST AFFECTING OUR DEEPEST AND MOST SHELTERED
VALLEYS WHERE THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPERIENCED TONIGHT.
THE FOG COULD FORM JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE DUE TO MOISTURE FROM RAIN THE
PAST FEW DAYS. THE MITIGATING FACTOR WITH THE FOG WILL BE THE COOL
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL LEAD INSTANCES OF FROST WHERE IT
GETS COLD ENOUGH. A ZONE UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED LATER IN THE SHIFT TO
GET RID OF STALE WORDING IN THE ZONES AND FOR ANY OTHER CHANGES THAT
MIGHT BE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING WITH IT
LOTS OF CLOUDS AND SOME SPRINKLES. THERE IS A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT
WAVE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING THIS WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THAN
WHAT WE ARE SEEING THIS AFTERNOON. DEPENDING OF HOW FAST THE SHORT
WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND HOW QUICKLY THE WIND DROPS OFF
TONIGHT...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY VALLEY FROST IN
THE WESTERN PORTION OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. TOMORROW NIGHT...THE CHANCES
FOR VALLEY FROST ARE A LITTLE HIGHER AS THE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
LINE UP BETTER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BE THE HIGHLIGHT OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND
PROVIDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FROM
MONDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
INTO MID WEEK...SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THE
EXTENDED.

THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH AN ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT. UNLIKE THE PAST FEW
SYSTEMS...THIS TROUGH LOOKS TO BE MORE MOISTURE STARVED...ESPECIALLY
IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THUS...NOT AS CONVINCED WE WILL SEE MUCH OUT OF
THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER...ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS THERE TO AT
LEAST SUPPORT A ISOLATED SHOWER OR SPRINKLE GOING INTO 0Z TUESDAY. A
STRONGER VORT MAX WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...TAKING AIM ON EASTERN KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE
MODELS TENDENCY THE LAST FEW SYSTEMS TO DOWNPLAY THE STRENGTH OF
THESE FEATURES...OPTED TO GO A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE ON THE POPS AS
THE DEGREE OF FORCING ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR DECENT
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO TUESDAY. BEST CHANCES WILL RESIDE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREAS...WITH SOUTHWEST ZONES POSSIBLY
STAYING DRY. THE INITIAL VORT MAX WILL CREATE AN UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF
LOW OVER THE EAST COAST...KEEPING THE AREA ON THE EDGE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH THE POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL
VORT MAXES DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THIS TROUGH...THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR WEST ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REACH.
THUS...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW. WHILE MODELS START TO DIVERGE A
BIT ON HOW QUICKLY THE TROUGH WILL DEPART BY THURSDAY...THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS IS THAT CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A GORGEOUS STRETCH OF FALL WEATHER AS WE HEAD INTO
NEXT WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 203 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

CONDITIONS WERE MOSTLY MVFR AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH A
SMATTERING OF IFR AND VFR. AREAS OF DRIZZLE WERE PREVALENT NE OF THE
CUMBERLAND RIVER BASIN. THE DRIZZLE WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT...BUT
LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST IN MOST LOCATIONS INTO THE DAY SUNDAY.
CEILINGS SHOULD BREAK UP ON SUNDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...
LEAVING VFR TO FINISH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...JMW/KAS
AVIATION...HAL








000
FXUS63 KJKL 190603
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
203 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 203 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

DRIZZLE IS PERSISTENT OVER ALL BUT THE SW AND FAR NW PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE ADDED IT TO THE FORECAST...AND USED A 20
PERCENT POP WHERE IT WILL BE MOST PREVALENT. AS AN INVERSION LOWERS
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...THE MOIST LAYER WILL BECOME MORE SHALLOW
AND DRIZZLE SHOULD FINALLY TAPER OFF. IN LIGHT OF OBSERVED TEMPS AND
CLOUDS HOLDING ON...HAVE RAISED MIN TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR THIS MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1024 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MADE ONE LAST UPDATE TO THE FORECAST BEFORE THE END OF THE SHIFT.
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...AND THE LATEST HRRR MODEL
DATA...ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND PATCHES OF DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH BETWEEN 4 AND 5Z TONIGHT. THE NEW
UPDATE WILL NO LONGER HAVE EVENING WORDING AND WILL FEATURE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 732 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A MINOR UPDATE TO THE FORECAST WAS REQUIRED THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS THAT INITIALLY FORMED OVER CENTRAL INDIANA HAS BECOME
QUITE ROBUST AND IS NOW MAKING ITS WAY INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. THESE
RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BECOME WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SHORT TERM
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE NEXT 3 OR 4 HOURS. THE
FORECAST UPDATE THAT IS ABOUT TO BE ISSUED WILL REFLECT THIS WITH 30
TO 50 POPS THROUGH 3Z. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST. THE RAIN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY AROUND 9Z
TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG AND FROST WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT...WITH THE FROST AFFECTING OUR DEEPEST AND MOST SHELTERED
VALLEYS WHERE THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPERIENCED TONIGHT.
THE FOG COULD FORM JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE DUE TO MOISTURE FROM RAIN THE
PAST FEW DAYS. THE MITIGATING FACTOR WITH THE FOG WILL BE THE COOL
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL LEAD INSTANCES OF FROST WHERE IT
GETS COLD ENOUGH. A ZONE UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED LATER IN THE SHIFT TO
GET RID OF STALE WORDING IN THE ZONES AND FOR ANY OTHER CHANGES THAT
MIGHT BE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING WITH IT
LOTS OF CLOUDS AND SOME SPRINKLES. THERE IS A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT
WAVE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING THIS WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THAN
WHAT WE ARE SEEING THIS AFTERNOON. DEPENDING OF HOW FAST THE SHORT
WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND HOW QUICKLY THE WIND DROPS OFF
TONIGHT...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY VALLEY FROST IN
THE WESTERN PORTION OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. TOMORROW NIGHT...THE CHANCES
FOR VALLEY FROST ARE A LITTLE HIGHER AS THE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
LINE UP BETTER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BE THE HIGHLIGHT OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND
PROVIDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FROM LATE
MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT INTO MID
WEEK...SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY GOOD THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

THE PERIOD WILL START AS MID LEVEL RIDGING IS DEPARTING TO THE EAST
REPLACED BY AN ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON
MONDAY. UNLIKE THE PAST FEW SYSTEMS...THIS TROUGH LOOKS TO BE MORE
MOISTURE STARVED...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THUS...NOT AS
CONVINCED WE WILL SEE MUCH OUT OF THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER...ENOUGH MID
LEVEL MOISTURE IS THERE TO AT LEAST SUPPORT A ISOLATED SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE LATE MONDAY. A STRONGER VORT MAX WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...TAKING AIM ON
EASTERN KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE MODELS TENDENCY THE LAST FEW SYSTEMS TO
DOWNPLAY THE STRENGTH OF THESE FEATURES...OPTED TO GO A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE ON THE POPS AS THE DEGREE OF FORCING ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW
FOR DECENT COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO TUESDAY. BEST CHANCES
WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREAS...WITH SOUTHWEST
ZONES POSSIBLY STAYING DRY. THE INITIAL VORT MAX WILL CREATE AN UPPER
LEVEL CUT OFF LOW OVER THE EAST COAST...KEEPING THE AREA ON THE EDGE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
ADDITIONAL VORT MAXES DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE EDGE OF THIS
TROUGH...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR WEST ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL REACH. THUS...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW. WHILE MODELS START
TO DIVERGE A BIT ON HOW QUICKLY THE TROUGH WILL DEPART BY
THURSDAY...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. IT
DOES LOOK LIKE THE POTENTIAL FOR A GORGEOUS STRETCH OF FALL WEATHER
AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 203 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

CONDITIONS WERE MOSTLY MVFR AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH A
SMATTERING OF IFR AND VFR. AREAS OF DRIZZLE WERE PREVALENT NE OF THE
CUMBERLAND RIVER BASIN. THE DRIZZLE WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT...BUT
LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST IN MOST LOCATIONS INTO THE DAY SUNDAY.
CEILINGS SHOULD BREAK UP ON SUNDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...
LEAVING VFR TO FINISH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...HAL








000
FXUS63 KJKL 190603
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
203 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 203 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

DRIZZLE IS PERSISTENT OVER ALL BUT THE SW AND FAR NW PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE ADDED IT TO THE FORECAST...AND USED A 20
PERCENT POP WHERE IT WILL BE MOST PREVALENT. AS AN INVERSION LOWERS
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...THE MOIST LAYER WILL BECOME MORE SHALLOW
AND DRIZZLE SHOULD FINALLY TAPER OFF. IN LIGHT OF OBSERVED TEMPS AND
CLOUDS HOLDING ON...HAVE RAISED MIN TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR THIS MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1024 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MADE ONE LAST UPDATE TO THE FORECAST BEFORE THE END OF THE SHIFT.
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...AND THE LATEST HRRR MODEL
DATA...ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND PATCHES OF DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH BETWEEN 4 AND 5Z TONIGHT. THE NEW
UPDATE WILL NO LONGER HAVE EVENING WORDING AND WILL FEATURE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 732 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A MINOR UPDATE TO THE FORECAST WAS REQUIRED THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS THAT INITIALLY FORMED OVER CENTRAL INDIANA HAS BECOME
QUITE ROBUST AND IS NOW MAKING ITS WAY INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. THESE
RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BECOME WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SHORT TERM
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE NEXT 3 OR 4 HOURS. THE
FORECAST UPDATE THAT IS ABOUT TO BE ISSUED WILL REFLECT THIS WITH 30
TO 50 POPS THROUGH 3Z. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST. THE RAIN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY AROUND 9Z
TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG AND FROST WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT...WITH THE FROST AFFECTING OUR DEEPEST AND MOST SHELTERED
VALLEYS WHERE THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPERIENCED TONIGHT.
THE FOG COULD FORM JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE DUE TO MOISTURE FROM RAIN THE
PAST FEW DAYS. THE MITIGATING FACTOR WITH THE FOG WILL BE THE COOL
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL LEAD INSTANCES OF FROST WHERE IT
GETS COLD ENOUGH. A ZONE UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED LATER IN THE SHIFT TO
GET RID OF STALE WORDING IN THE ZONES AND FOR ANY OTHER CHANGES THAT
MIGHT BE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING WITH IT
LOTS OF CLOUDS AND SOME SPRINKLES. THERE IS A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT
WAVE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING THIS WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THAN
WHAT WE ARE SEEING THIS AFTERNOON. DEPENDING OF HOW FAST THE SHORT
WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND HOW QUICKLY THE WIND DROPS OFF
TONIGHT...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY VALLEY FROST IN
THE WESTERN PORTION OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. TOMORROW NIGHT...THE CHANCES
FOR VALLEY FROST ARE A LITTLE HIGHER AS THE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
LINE UP BETTER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BE THE HIGHLIGHT OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND
PROVIDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FROM LATE
MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT INTO MID
WEEK...SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY GOOD THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

THE PERIOD WILL START AS MID LEVEL RIDGING IS DEPARTING TO THE EAST
REPLACED BY AN ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON
MONDAY. UNLIKE THE PAST FEW SYSTEMS...THIS TROUGH LOOKS TO BE MORE
MOISTURE STARVED...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THUS...NOT AS
CONVINCED WE WILL SEE MUCH OUT OF THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER...ENOUGH MID
LEVEL MOISTURE IS THERE TO AT LEAST SUPPORT A ISOLATED SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE LATE MONDAY. A STRONGER VORT MAX WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...TAKING AIM ON
EASTERN KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE MODELS TENDENCY THE LAST FEW SYSTEMS TO
DOWNPLAY THE STRENGTH OF THESE FEATURES...OPTED TO GO A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE ON THE POPS AS THE DEGREE OF FORCING ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW
FOR DECENT COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO TUESDAY. BEST CHANCES
WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREAS...WITH SOUTHWEST
ZONES POSSIBLY STAYING DRY. THE INITIAL VORT MAX WILL CREATE AN UPPER
LEVEL CUT OFF LOW OVER THE EAST COAST...KEEPING THE AREA ON THE EDGE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
ADDITIONAL VORT MAXES DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE EDGE OF THIS
TROUGH...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR WEST ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL REACH. THUS...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW. WHILE MODELS START
TO DIVERGE A BIT ON HOW QUICKLY THE TROUGH WILL DEPART BY
THURSDAY...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. IT
DOES LOOK LIKE THE POTENTIAL FOR A GORGEOUS STRETCH OF FALL WEATHER
AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 203 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

CONDITIONS WERE MOSTLY MVFR AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH A
SMATTERING OF IFR AND VFR. AREAS OF DRIZZLE WERE PREVALENT NE OF THE
CUMBERLAND RIVER BASIN. THE DRIZZLE WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT...BUT
LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST IN MOST LOCATIONS INTO THE DAY SUNDAY.
CEILINGS SHOULD BREAK UP ON SUNDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...
LEAVING VFR TO FINISH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...HAL







000
FXUS63 KJKL 190225
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1025 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1024 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MADE ONE LAST UPDATE TO THE FORECAST BEFORE THE END OF THE SHIFT.
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...AND THE LATEST HRRR MODEL
DATA...ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND PATCHES OF DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH BETWEEN 4 AND 5Z TONIGHT. THE NEW
UPDATE WILL NO LONGER HAVE EVENING WORDING AND WILL FEATURE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 732 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A MINOR UPDATE TO THE FORECAST WAS REQUIRED THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS THAT INITIALLY FORMED OVER CENTRAL INDIANA HAS BECOME
QUITE ROBUST AND IS NOW MAKING ITS WAY INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. THESE
RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BECOME WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SHORT TERM
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE NEXT 3 OR 4 HOURS. THE
FORECAST UPDATE THAT IS ABOUT TO BE ISSUED WILL REFLECT THIS WITH 30
TO 50 POPS THROUGH 3Z. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST. THE RAIN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY AROUND 9Z
TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG AND FROST WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT...WITH THE FROST AFFECTING OUR DEEPEST AND MOST SHELTERED
VALLEYS WHERE THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPERIENCED TONIGHT.
THE FOG COULD FORM JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE DUE TO MOISTURE FROM RAIN THE
PAST FEW DAYS. THE MITIGATING FACTOR WITH THE FOG WILL BE THE COOL
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL LEAD INSTANCES OF FROST WHERE IT
GETS COLD ENOUGH. A ZONE UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED LATER IN THE SHIFT TO
GET RID OF STALE WORDING IN THE ZONES AND FOR ANY OTHER CHANGES THAT
MIGHT BE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING WITH IT
LOTS OF CLOUDS AND SOME SPRINKLES. THERE IS A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT
WAVE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING THIS WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THAN
WHAT WE ARE SEEING THIS AFTERNOON. DEPENDING OF HOW FAST THE SHORT
WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND HOW QUICKLY THE WIND DROPS OFF
TONIGHT...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY VALLEY FROST IN
THE WESTERN PORTION OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. TOMORROW NIGHT...THE CHANCES
FOR VALLEY FROST ARE A LITTLE HIGHER AS THE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
LINE UP BETTER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BE THE HIGHLIGHT OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND
PROVIDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FROM LATE
MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT INTO MID
WEEK...SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY GOOD THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

THE PERIOD WILL START AS MID LEVEL RIDGING IS DEPARTING TO THE EAST
REPLACED BY AN ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON
MONDAY. UNLIKE THE PAST FEW SYSTEMS...THIS TROUGH LOOKS TO BE MORE
MOISTURE STARVED...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THUS...NOT AS
CONVINCED WE WILL SEE MUCH OUT OF THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER...ENOUGH MID
LEVEL MOISTURE IS THERE TO AT LEAST SUPPORT A ISOLATED SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE LATE MONDAY. A STRONGER VORT MAX WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...TAKING AIM ON
EASTERN KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE MODELS TENDENCY THE LAST FEW SYSTEMS TO
DOWNPLAY THE STRENGTH OF THESE FEATURES...OPTED TO GO A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE ON THE POPS AS THE DEGREE OF FORCING ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW
FOR DECENT COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO TUESDAY. BEST CHANCES
WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREAS...WITH SOUTHWEST
ZONES POSSIBLY STAYING DRY. THE INITIAL VORT MAX WILL CREATE AN UPPER
LEVEL CUT OFF LOW OVER THE EAST COAST...KEEPING THE AREA ON THE EDGE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
ADDITIONAL VORT MAXES DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE EDGE OF THIS
TROUGH...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR WEST ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL REACH. THUS...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW. WHILE MODELS START
TO DIVERGE A BIT ON HOW QUICKLY THE TROUGH WILL DEPART BY
THURSDAY...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. IT
DOES LOOK LIKE THE POTENTIAL FOR A GORGEOUS STRETCH OF FALL WEATHER
AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 732 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH 8 OR 9Z TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE TIMES AT THE TAF
SITES...PARTICULARLY JKL AND SJS...WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY BE
EXPERIENCED DUE TO THE PRECIPITATION. LATER TONIGHT...THERE MAY EVEN
BE SOME MVFR FOG FORM AT JKL AND SJS WHERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY
JUST WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP FROST FROM FORMING. ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM
SHOULD BE GONE BY 14Z ON SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS ON TAP AFTER THAT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...AR








000
FXUS63 KJKL 190225
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1025 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1024 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MADE ONE LAST UPDATE TO THE FORECAST BEFORE THE END OF THE SHIFT.
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...AND THE LATEST HRRR MODEL
DATA...ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND PATCHES OF DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH BETWEEN 4 AND 5Z TONIGHT. THE NEW
UPDATE WILL NO LONGER HAVE EVENING WORDING AND WILL FEATURE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 732 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A MINOR UPDATE TO THE FORECAST WAS REQUIRED THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS THAT INITIALLY FORMED OVER CENTRAL INDIANA HAS BECOME
QUITE ROBUST AND IS NOW MAKING ITS WAY INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. THESE
RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BECOME WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SHORT TERM
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE NEXT 3 OR 4 HOURS. THE
FORECAST UPDATE THAT IS ABOUT TO BE ISSUED WILL REFLECT THIS WITH 30
TO 50 POPS THROUGH 3Z. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST. THE RAIN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY AROUND 9Z
TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG AND FROST WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT...WITH THE FROST AFFECTING OUR DEEPEST AND MOST SHELTERED
VALLEYS WHERE THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPERIENCED TONIGHT.
THE FOG COULD FORM JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE DUE TO MOISTURE FROM RAIN THE
PAST FEW DAYS. THE MITIGATING FACTOR WITH THE FOG WILL BE THE COOL
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL LEAD INSTANCES OF FROST WHERE IT
GETS COLD ENOUGH. A ZONE UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED LATER IN THE SHIFT TO
GET RID OF STALE WORDING IN THE ZONES AND FOR ANY OTHER CHANGES THAT
MIGHT BE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING WITH IT
LOTS OF CLOUDS AND SOME SPRINKLES. THERE IS A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT
WAVE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING THIS WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THAN
WHAT WE ARE SEEING THIS AFTERNOON. DEPENDING OF HOW FAST THE SHORT
WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND HOW QUICKLY THE WIND DROPS OFF
TONIGHT...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY VALLEY FROST IN
THE WESTERN PORTION OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. TOMORROW NIGHT...THE CHANCES
FOR VALLEY FROST ARE A LITTLE HIGHER AS THE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
LINE UP BETTER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BE THE HIGHLIGHT OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND
PROVIDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FROM LATE
MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT INTO MID
WEEK...SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY GOOD THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

THE PERIOD WILL START AS MID LEVEL RIDGING IS DEPARTING TO THE EAST
REPLACED BY AN ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON
MONDAY. UNLIKE THE PAST FEW SYSTEMS...THIS TROUGH LOOKS TO BE MORE
MOISTURE STARVED...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THUS...NOT AS
CONVINCED WE WILL SEE MUCH OUT OF THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER...ENOUGH MID
LEVEL MOISTURE IS THERE TO AT LEAST SUPPORT A ISOLATED SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE LATE MONDAY. A STRONGER VORT MAX WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...TAKING AIM ON
EASTERN KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE MODELS TENDENCY THE LAST FEW SYSTEMS TO
DOWNPLAY THE STRENGTH OF THESE FEATURES...OPTED TO GO A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE ON THE POPS AS THE DEGREE OF FORCING ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW
FOR DECENT COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO TUESDAY. BEST CHANCES
WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREAS...WITH SOUTHWEST
ZONES POSSIBLY STAYING DRY. THE INITIAL VORT MAX WILL CREATE AN UPPER
LEVEL CUT OFF LOW OVER THE EAST COAST...KEEPING THE AREA ON THE EDGE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
ADDITIONAL VORT MAXES DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE EDGE OF THIS
TROUGH...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR WEST ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL REACH. THUS...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW. WHILE MODELS START
TO DIVERGE A BIT ON HOW QUICKLY THE TROUGH WILL DEPART BY
THURSDAY...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. IT
DOES LOOK LIKE THE POTENTIAL FOR A GORGEOUS STRETCH OF FALL WEATHER
AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 732 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH 8 OR 9Z TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE TIMES AT THE TAF
SITES...PARTICULARLY JKL AND SJS...WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY BE
EXPERIENCED DUE TO THE PRECIPITATION. LATER TONIGHT...THERE MAY EVEN
BE SOME MVFR FOG FORM AT JKL AND SJS WHERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY
JUST WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP FROST FROM FORMING. ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM
SHOULD BE GONE BY 14Z ON SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS ON TAP AFTER THAT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...AR







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