000
FXUS63 KJKL 240719
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
319 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WERE ONGOING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE GONE BY 12Z...BUT A PRE-FIRST PERIOD MAY BE NEEDED IN
THE ZFP TO COVER THEM. OTHERWISE...A DRY PERIOD IS IN STORE.

COOL HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA WILL BRING
DECREASING CLOUDS TODAY...AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. DEW POINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
DAYTIME MIXING IN THE COOL AIR MASS ONLY ALLOWING MAX TEMPS IN THE
MID 60S. WITH WINDS DYING OFF TONIGHT...TEMPS SHOULD READILY DROP.
WITH FULL VEGETATION IN PLACE...A SIGNIFICANT DEW POINT RECOVERY
SHOULD OCCUR WHERE FULL WIND DECOUPLING OCCURS IN VALLEYS. THIS WILL
SET UP A BATTLE BETWEEN FOG AND FROST TONIGHT AS TEMPS FALL AND
DEPRESS THE DEW POINTS. IT IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY VERY LATE FOR
FROST...AND DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD. FOG IS LIKELY TO WIN
OUT IN MOST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...THINK THAT SOME PATCHY FROST WILL
OCCUR. WITH THE GROWING SEASON IN FULL SWING...WILL ISSUE AN SPS FOR
PATCHY FROST...EMPHASIZING THE NEED FOR PLANT PROTECTION IN THE
NORMALLY COLDER VALLEYS.

THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR
WEATHER SATURDAY. HOWEVER...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO PRECIP
OVER THE MIDWEST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
OFF THIS ACTIVITY AND HEADING SOUTHEAST OVER OUR AREA. THIS WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FOR SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

THE MODELS WERE IN FAIR AGREEMENT AT BEST FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...SREF...AND NAM12 ALL WERE
PRODUCING SOME SORT OF WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR SURFACE TROUGH TO
START THE PERIOD. EACH MODEL PRODUCED ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY MOVED ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. THE ISSUE HERE WAS WITH THE TIMING AND
COVERAGE DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE VARIOUS MODELS. WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS SHOWING UP IN THE LATEST HPC AND MEXMOS GUIDANCE...DECIDED TO GO
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FROM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. WITH LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY SHOWING UP IN THE
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND WITH ONLY MINIMAL LIFT ALONG THE ANTICIPATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WENT WITH GENERAL RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THE SOUNDINGS THEN PRODUCED A BIT MORE INSTABILITY FROM LATE
MONDAY MORNING THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY...WHICH WOULD
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO SPARK A THUNDERSTORM DURING THAT TIME. THE MODELS
THEN ALL AGREE THAT THE AFORMENTIONED FRONT BOUNDARY/TROUGH WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY 0Z WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING
OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. WITH GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON THIS POINT...DECIDED TO KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL START OUT SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL...AS A PARTICULARLY COOL AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER
THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL TOP OUT IN
THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER THAT...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
AT OR ABOVE NORMAL VALUES...AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL LIKELY WARM TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL VALUES...AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE AREA AND STRENGTHENS OVER TIME. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
WILL BE A GOOD BET FROM MID WEEK ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 152 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

CONDITIONS WERE LARGELY MVFR REGION WIDE AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA.
THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND MOVE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...
AND SHOULD BE FINISHED BY 12Z...BUT MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST A WHILE LONGER FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE CEILINGS SHOULD BREAK
UP DURING THE MORNING...LEAVING VFR FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL

000
FXUS63 KJKL 240657
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
257 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WERE ONGOING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE GONE BY 12Z...BUT A PRE-FIRST PERIOD MAY BE NEEDED IN
THE ZFP TO COVER THEM. OTHERWISE...A DRY PERIOD IS IN STORE.

COOL HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA WILL BRING
DECREASING CLOUDS TODAY...AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. DEW POINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
DAYTIME MIXING IN THE COOL AIR MASS ONLY ALLOWING MAX TEMPS IN THE
MID 60S. WITH WINDS DYING OFF TONIGHT...TEMPS SHOULD READILY DROP.
WITH FULL VEGETATION IN PLACE...A SIGNIFICANT DEW POINT RECOVERY
SHOULD OCCUR WHERE FULL WIND DECOUPLING OCCURS IN VALLEYS. THIS WILL
SET UP A BATTLE BETWEEN FOG AND FROST TONIGHT AS TEMPS FALL AND
DEPRESS THE DEW POINTS. IT IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY VERY LATE FOR
FROST...AND DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD. FOG IS LIKELY TO WIN
OUT IN MOST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...THINK THAT SOME PATCHY FROST WILL
OCCUR. WITH THE GROWING SEASON IN FULL SWING...WILL ISSUE AN SPS FOR
PATCHY FROST...EMPHASIZING THE NEED FOR PLANT PROTECTION IN THE
NORMALLY COLDER VALLEYS.

THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR
WEATHER SATURDAY. HOWEVER...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO PRECIP
OVER THE MIDWEST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
OFF THIS ACTIVITY AND HEADING SOUTHEAST OVER OUR AREA. THIS WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FOR SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

AN UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 152 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

CONDITIONS WERE LARGELY MVFR REGION WIDE AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA.
THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND MOVE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...
AND SHOULD BE FINISHED BY 12Z...BUT MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST A WHILE LONGER FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE CEILINGS SHOULD BREAK
UP DURING THE MORNING...LEAVING VFR FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL

000
FXUS63 KJKL 240552
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
152 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 152 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

UPDATED WITH SOME MINOR CHANGES TO CLOUDS AND TEMPS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...BUT WITH LITTLE AFFECT ON THE OVERALL FORECAST. PRECIP HAS
SHIFTED INTO THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA AS WAS FORECAST...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO HEAD SOUTHEAST AND DIMINISH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1055 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS TO GOOSE THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS
ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY TONIGHT. ALSO FINE TUNED THE T/TD AND WIND GRIDS
TO BETTER MATCH THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS...CAA PATTERN SHOULD LEAD
TO FAIRLY UNIFORM AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA BY
MORNING... A BIT COOLER IN THE NORTHWEST THAN THE FAR SOUTHEAST.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS WITH A FRESH ZFP
ON THE WAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 840 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

00Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSING INTO KENTUCKY
FROM A LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND. A LARGE AREA OF
COOL HIGH PRESSURE DESCENDING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST FOLLOWS THIS
FRONT. ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTHWEST...THERE IS A BROKEN LINE
OF LIGHT SHOWERS AT THE MOMENT. THE CONVECTION FROM THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HAS DEPARTED FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA TAKING ANY
RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH IT. AS SUCH...HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO ADDRESS THIS AND ALSO FINE TUNE THE TIMING OF THE PCPN
THREAT WITH THE NEXT BOUNDARY. DID ALSO MINIMIZE THE RAIN CHANCES IN
THE EAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE THEY PICK UP AGAIN WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT. FINALLY...MATCHED UP THE T AND TD GRIDS
FOR THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND
WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH A FRESH SET OF ZONES AND HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEMS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA. IT HAS PRODUCED SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE COAL FIELDS
AND THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NEAR THE WV
BORDER. THERE IS A FRONT WITH COOLER AIR BEHIND IT WHICH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. IT WILL ALSO BRING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO THE AREA TONIGHT. ONE CONCERN IS HOW COLD WILL IT GET ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE CLOUDS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AND THE WINDS STAY
LIGHT. EXPECTING TO SOME SOME PATCHY VALLEY FROST THAT
EVENING...HOWEVER NO HARD FREEZES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND...BUT START TO DIVERGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST MUCH LESS FROM MONDAY ONWARD. THE PERIOD WILL START WITH
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE AREA...PROVIDING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.
BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING TO
THE NORTHEAST...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER. A COMPROMISE OF THE
TWO WOULD KEEP THE BOUNDARY IN OUR VICINITY THROUGH
MIDWEEK...SUPPORTING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A
PORTION OF THE AREA EACH DAY. THIS MAY BE CONFINED TO THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING EACH DAY. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT PIECES OF ENERGY
ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA...SO IT LOOKS LIKE ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAY BE
THE BEST WE DO INTO NEXT WEEK. OF COURSE WITH THE MODELS IN
DISAGREEMENT ON EVOLUTION...THINGS COULD CHANGE WARRANTING A PERIOD
OF HIGHER POPS. AFTER COOLER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND...A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IS ANTICIPATED INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS
THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 152 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

CONDITIONS WERE LARGELY MVFR REGION WIDE AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA.
THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND MOVE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...
AND SHOULD BE FINISHED BY 12Z...BUT MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST A WHILE LONGER FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE CEILINGS SHOULD BREAK
UP DURING THE MORNING...LEAVING VFR FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL/GREIF
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...HAL

000
FXUS63 KJKL 240255 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1055 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1055 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS TO GOOSE THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS
ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY TONIGHT. ALSO FINE TUNED THE T/TD AND WIND GRIDS
TO BETTER MATCH THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS...CAA PATTERN SHOULD LEAD
TO FAIRLY UNIFORM AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA BY
MORNING... A BIT COOLER IN THE NORTHWEST THAN THE FAR SOUTHEAST.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS WITH A FRESH ZFP
ON THE WAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 840 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

00Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSING INTO KENTUCKY
FROM A LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND. A LARGE AREA OF
COOL HIGH PRESSURE DESCENDING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST FOLLOWS THIS
FRONT. ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTHWEST...THERE IS A BROKEN LINE
OF LIGHT SHOWERS AT THE MOMENT. THE CONVECTION FROM THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HAS DEPARTED FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA TAKING ANY
RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH IT. AS SUCH...HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO ADDRESS THIS AND ALSO FINE TUNE THE TIMING OF THE PCPN
THREAT WITH THE NEXT BOUNDARY. DID ALSO MINIMIZE THE RAIN CHANCES IN
THE EAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE THEY PICK UP AGAIN WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT. FINALLY...MATCHED UP THE T AND TD GRIDS
FOR THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND
WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH A FRESH SET OF ZONES AND HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEMS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA. IT HAS PRODUCED SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE COAL FIELDS
AND THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NEAR THE WV
BORDER. THERE IS A FRONT WITH COOLER AIR BEHIND IT WHICH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. IT WILL ALSO BRING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO THE AREA TONIGHT. ONE CONCERN IS HOW COLD WILL IT GET ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE CLOUDS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AND THE WINDS STAY
LIGHT. EXPECTING TO SOME SOME PATCHY VALLEY FROST THAT
EVENING...HOWEVER NO HARD FREEZES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND...BUT START TO DIVERGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST MUCH LESS FROM MONDAY ONWARD. THE PERIOD WILL START WITH
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE AREA...PROVIDING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.
BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING TO
THE NORTHEAST...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER. A COMPROMISE OF THE
TWO WOULD KEEP THE BOUNDARY IN OUR VICINITY THROUGH
MIDWEEK...SUPPORTING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A
PORTION OF THE AREA EACH DAY. THIS MAY BE CONFINED TO THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING EACH DAY. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT PIECES OF ENERGY
ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA...SO IT LOOKS LIKE ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAY BE
THE BEST WE DO INTO NEXT WEEK. OF COURSE WITH THE MODELS IN
DISAGREEMENT ON EVOLUTION...THINGS COULD CHANGE WARRANTING A PERIOD
OF HIGHER POPS. AFTER COOLER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND...A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IS ANTICIPATED INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS
THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 845 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH EAST
KENTUCKY LATE TONIGHT AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE
AREA. FROM THIS...A BOUT OF LOWER CLOUDS AND REDUCED VIS...DOWN TO
MVFR FOR A TIME...IS ANTICIPATED. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE EARLY
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CLEARS OUT THE LOWER CLOUDS AND YIELDS VFR
CONDITIONS FROM MID MORNING ON. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20
KTS WILL SETTLE A BIT OVERNIGHT BEFORE RESUMING FROM THE NORTH DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF

000
FXUS63 KJKL 240045 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
845 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 840 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

00Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSING INTO KENTUCKY
FROM A LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND. A LARGE AREA OF
COOL HIGH PRESSURE DESCENDING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST FOLLOWS THIS
FRONT. ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTHWEST...THERE IS A BROKEN LINE
OF LIGHT SHOWERS AT THE MOMENT. THE CONVECTION FROM THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HAS DEPARTED FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA TAKING ANY
RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH IT. AS SUCH...HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO ADDRESS THIS AND ALSO FINE TUNE THE TIMING OF THE PCPN
THREAT WITH THE NEXT BOUNDARY. DID ALSO MINIMIZE THE RAIN CHANCES IN
THE EAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE THEY PICK UP AGAIN WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT. FINALLY...MATCHED UP THE T AND TD GRIDS
FOR THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND
WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH A FRESH SET OF ZONES AND HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEMS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA. IT HAS PRODUCED SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE COAL FIELDS
AND THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NEAR THE WV
BORDER. THERE IS A FRONT WITH COOLER AIR BEHIND IT WHICH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. IT WILL ALSO BRING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO THE AREA TONIGHT. ONE CONCERN IS HOW COLD WILL IT GET ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE CLOUDS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AND THE WINDS STAY
LIGHT. EXPECTING TO SOME SOME PATCHY VALLEY FROST THAT
EVENING...HOWEVER NO HARD FREEZES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND...BUT START TO DIVERGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST MUCH LESS FROM MONDAY ONWARD. THE PERIOD WILL START WITH
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE AREA...PROVIDING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.
BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING TO
THE NORTHEAST...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER. A COMPROMISE OF THE
TWO WOULD KEEP THE BOUNDARY IN OUR VICINITY THROUGH
MIDWEEK...SUPPORTING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A
PORTION OF THE AREA EACH DAY. THIS MAY BE CONFINED TO THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING EACH DAY. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT PIECES OF ENERGY
ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA...SO IT LOOKS LIKE ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAY BE
THE BEST WE DO INTO NEXT WEEK. OF COURSE WITH THE MODELS IN
DISAGREEMENT ON EVOLUTION...THINGS COULD CHANGE WARRANTING A PERIOD
OF HIGHER POPS. AFTER COOLER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND...A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IS ANTICIPATED INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS
THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 845 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH EAST
KENTUCKY LATE TONIGHT AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE
AREA. FROM THIS...A BOUT OF LOWER CLOUDS AND REDUCED VIS...DOWN TO
MVFR FOR A TIME...IS ANTICIPATED. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE EARLY
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CLEARS OUT THE LOWER CLOUDS AND YIELDS VFR
CONDITIONS FROM MID MORNING ON. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20
KTS WILL SETTLE A BIT OVERNIGHT BEFORE RESUMING FROM THE NORTH DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF

000
FXUS63 KJKL 231841
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
241 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEMS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA. IT HAS PRODUCED SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE COAL FIELDS
AND THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NEAR THE WV
BORDER. THERE IS A FRONT WITH COOLER AIR BEHIND IT WHICH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. IT WILL ALSO BRING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO THE AREA TONIGHT. ONE CONCERN IS HOW COLD WILL IT GET ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE CLOUDS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AND THE WINDS STAY
LIGHT. EXPECTING TO SOME SOME PATCHY VALLEY FROST THAT
EVENING...HOWEVER NO HARD FREEZES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND...BUT START TO DIVERGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST MUCH LESS FROM MONDAY ONWARD. THE PERIOD WILL START WITH
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE AREA...PROVIDING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.
BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING TO
THE NORTHEAST...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER. A COMPROMISE OF THE
TWO WOULD KEEP THE BOUNDARY IN OUR VICINITY THROUGH
MIDWEEK...SUPPORTING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A
PORTION OF THE AREA EACH DAY. THIS MAY BE CONFINED TO THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING EACH DAY. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT PIECES OF ENERGY
ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA...SO IT LOOKS LIKE ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAY BE
THE BEST WE DO INTO NEXT WEEK. OF COURSE WITH THE MODELS IN
DISAGREEMENT ON EVOLUTION...THINGS COULD CHANGE WARRANTING A PERIOD
OF HIGHER POPS. AFTER COOLER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND...A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IS ANTICIPATED INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS
THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY WORK
THEIR WAY INTO TN AND WV. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
WITH THE WINDS STAYING UP THIS EVENING...EXPECTING STRATUS TO FORM
THIS EVENING INSTEAD OF FOG. THE TAF STATIONS WILL SEE SOME LIFR
CIGS IN THE MORNING. THIS WILL CLEAR OUT IN THE MORNING BY 12-13Z.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JJ

000
FXUS63 KJKL 231824
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
224 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEMS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA. IT HAS PRODUCED SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE COAL FIELDS
AND THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NEAR THE WV
BORDER. THERE IS A FRONT WITH COOLER AIR BEHIND IT WHICH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. IT WILL ALSO BRING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO THE AREA TONIGHT. ONE CONCERN IS HOW COLD WILL IT GET ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE CLOUDS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AND THE WINDS STAY
LIGHT. EXPECTING TO SOME SOME PATCHY VALLEY FROST THAT
EVENING...HOWEVER NO HARD FREEZES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

THE EXTENDED DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY WORK
THEIR WAY INTO TN AND WV. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
WITH THE WINDS STAYING UP THIS EVENING...EXPECTING STRATUS TO FORM
THIS EVENING INSTEAD OF FOG. THE TAF STATIONS WILL SEE SOME LIFR
CIGS IN THE MORNING. THIS WILL CLEAR OUT IN THE MORNING BY 12-13Z.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JJ

000
FXUS63 KJKL 231519
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1119 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1110 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL
TRENDS. SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO POP UP AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 707 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

AREAS OF DENSE FOG...WHICH HAVE BEEN PREVALENT ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IS STARTING TO LIFT. WILL MAINLY FRESHEN UP THE
HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND SKY COVER TO BETTER JIVE WITH
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COMMONWEALTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE COMBINATION OF HEATING AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL INITIATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS...ALONG
WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL
BE MORE SEASONABLE TODAY...WITH MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN TONIGHT FROM WEST TO
EAST AS MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
TROUGH. LOW STRATUS WILL LIKELY SET IN OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50 DEGREES.

FRIDAY WILL FEATURE A BEAUTIFUL DAY...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PASSING ACROSS THE REGION UNDERNEATH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A DRY AND COOL AIR MASS TO START
THE TIME FRAME. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES...WITH VALLEYS DIPPING INTO THE 30S EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.

AS TIME GOES BY...THE COOL AND DRY AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY DEPART TO
THE EAST AND A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS
BOUNDARY COINCIDING WITH THE EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CREEPING
EASTWARD WILL POSE A THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS AND
ECMWF DO NOT AGREE ON THE TIMING OF THIS...WITH THE GFS BEING FURTHER
NORTHEAST. HAVE USED A GENERALIZED APPROACH AT THIS POINT...GRANTING
CREDENCE TO BOTH SOLUTIONS AND USING 20 PERCENT POPS EACH PERIOD FROM
MONDAY ON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 707 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

LIFR FOG AND STRATUS WILL BURN OFF IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY...WITH SOME SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS EXPECTED AS WELL AS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. DO NOT
EXPECT THESE TO BE PARTICULARLY HEAVY AND WILL FORGO HAVING ANY MVFR
RESTRICTIONS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND COULD GUST IN THE 15
TI 20 KT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. MVFR STRATOCU WILL BUILD IN
TONIGHT...WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY DESCEND TO IFR STATUS TOWARDS DAWN.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJ
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

000
FXUS63 KJKL 231108 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
708 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 707 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

AREAS OF DENSE FOG...WHICH HAVE BEEN PREVALENT ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IS STARTING TO LIFT. WILL MAINLY FRESHEN UP THE
HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND SKY COVER TO BETTER JIVE WITH
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COMMONWEALTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE COMBINATION OF HEATING AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL INITIATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS...ALONG
WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL
BE MORE SEASONABLE TODAY...WITH MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN TONIGHT FROM WEST TO
EAST AS MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
TROUGH. LOW STRATUS WILL LIKELY SET IN OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50 DEGREES.

FRIDAY WILL FEATURE A BEAUTIFUL DAY...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PASSING ACROSS THE REGION UNDERNEATH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A DRY AND COOL AIR MASS TO START
THE TIME FRAME. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES...WITH VALLEYS DIPPING INTO THE 30S EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.

AS TIME GOES BY...THE COOL AND DRY AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY DEPART TO
THE EAST AND A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS
BOUNDARY COINCIDING WITH THE EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CREEPING
EASTWARD WILL POSE A THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS AND
ECMWF DO NOT AGREE ON THE TIMING OF THIS...WITH THE GFS BEING FURTHER
NORTHEAST. HAVE USED A GENERALIZED APPROACH AT THIS POINT...GRANTING
CREDENCE TO BOTH SOLUTIONS AND USING 20 PERCENT POPS EACH PERIOD FROM
MONDAY ON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 707 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

LIFR FOG AND STRATUS WILL BURN OFF IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY...WITH SOME SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS EXPECTED AS WELL AS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. DO NOT
EXPECT THESE TO BE PARTICULARLY HEAVY AND WILL FORGO HAVING ANY MVFR
RESTRICTIONS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND COULD GUST IN THE 15
TI 20 KT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. MVFR STRATOCU WILL BUILD IN
TONIGHT...WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY DESCEND TO IFR STATUS TOWARDS DAWN.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

000
FXUS63 KJKL 230838
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
438 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COMMONWEALTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE COMBINATION OF HEATING AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL INITIATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS...ALONG
WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL
BE MORE SEASONABLE TODAY...WITH MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN TONIGHT FROM WEST TO
EAST AS MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
TROUGH. LOW STRATUS WILL LIKELY SET IN OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50 DEGREES.

FRIDAY WILL FEATURE A BEAUTIFUL DAY...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PASSING ACROSS THE REGION UNDERNEATH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A DRY AND COOL AIR MASS TO START
THE TIME FRAME. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES...WITH VALLEYS DIPPING INTO THE 30S EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.

AS TIME GOES BY...THE COOL AND DRY AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY DEPART TO
THE EAST AND A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS
BOUNDARY COINCIDING WITH THE EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CREEPING
EASTWARD WILL POSE A THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS AND
ECMWF DO NOT AGREE ON THE TIMING OF THIS...WITH THE GFS BEING FURTHER
NORTHEAST. HAVE USED A GENERALIZED APPROACH AT THIS POINT...GRANTING
CREDENCE TO BOTH SOLUTIONS AND USING 20 PERCENT POPS EACH PERIOD FROM
MONDAY ON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE THE FIRST CONCERN OVERNIGHT. VISIBILITY
WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE AS FOG TRIES TO FORM DESPITE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A STRATOCU DECK BETWEEN 2 AND 3K FEET AGL. HAVE GONE WITH MAINLY
MVFR CONDITIONS AT LOZ AND SME...WITH IFR AT JKL...HOWEVER TEMPORARY
FLUCTUATIONS ESPECIALLY IN VISIBILITY COULD BRING IFR OR WORSE
CONDITIONS THROUGH DAWN. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
DAY...WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY. WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT TO
THE WEST AND COULD GUST IN THE 20 KT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. MVFR
STRATOCU WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT...WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY DESCEND TO IFR
STATUS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

000
FXUS63 KJKL 230740 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
340 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COMMONWEALTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE COMBINATION OF HEATING AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL INITIATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS...ALONG
WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL
BE MORE SEASONABLE TODAY...WITH MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN TONIGHT FROM WEST TO
EAST AS MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECT IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
TROUGH. LOW STRATUS WILL LIKELY SET IN OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50 DEGREES.

FRIDAY WILL FEATURE A BEAUTIFUL DAY...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

OUR WEATHER PATTERN WILL START OUT WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EAST COAST WITH DRY NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE OVER EAST
KENTUCKY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S...WITH SOME LOW 70S BY SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST WITH SOMEWHAT FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WITH TIME
AS THIS TAKES PLACE...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO REAPPEAR AS A
SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES PASS THROUGH THE BUILDING RIDGE. WILL
ADVERTISE 20-30 POPS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH
IT APPEARS INSTABILITY REMAINS ABSENT UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN SOME
THUNDER WILL BE ADDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE THE FIRST CONCERN OVERNIGHT. VISIBILITY
WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE AS FOG TRIES TO FORM DESPITE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A STRATOCU DECK BETWEEN 2 AND 3K FEET AGL. HAVE GONE WITH MAINLY
MVFR CONDITIONS AT LOZ AND SME...WITH IFR AT JKL...HOWEVER TEMPORARY
FLUCTUATIONS ESPECIALLY IN VISIBILITY COULD BRING IFR OR WORSE
CONDITIONS THROUGH DAWN. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
DAY...WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY. WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT TO
THE WEST AND COULD GUST IN THE 20 KT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. MVFR
STRATOCU WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT...WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY DESCEND TO IFR
STATUS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

000
FXUS63 KJKL 230619 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
219 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 219 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

THE BETTER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE HAS SHIFTED EAST. FRESHENED UP THE
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 743 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO GET RID OF THE PRE FIRST PERIOD WORDING AND
TO BETTER TIME THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE AREA. THE VERY UNSTABLE
AIR OUT IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AIR PRODUCED A
COUPLE OF DECENT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER THEY WERE NOT ABLE
TO PRODUCE ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER LINE OF STORMS IS JUST
ENTERING EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM THE WEST. THESE STORMS ARE MUCH LIKE
THE ONES EARLIER IN THE EASTERN HALF OF EASTERN KENTUCKY AND SHOULD
ONLY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 40 MPH AND SMALL
HAIL. HAVE BEEN HANGING ONTO THE WATCH BOX...HOWEVER MAY CONSIDER
CANCELING IT SOON. WILL WAIT AND SEE IT THIS LINE MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST BEHAVES. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

STILL WAITING FOR THE CONVECTION TO GET GOING TODAY. THE AREA WEST
OF JKL IS MORE STABLE THAN WHAT WE SAY YESTERDAY. THE AREA TO THE
EAST WHERE THERE HAS BEEN A LOT LESS CLOUD COVER IS BECOMING VERY
UNSTABLE. THE MISSING INGREDIENT IS SOME FORCING TO GET THE
CONVECTION GOING. WITH TIME THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH
AND THEN SOME CONVECTION MAY START POPPING UP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.
THIS EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE ANY SEVERE
WEATHER TODAY. AT THE TAF STATIONS...THEY SHOULD SEE JUST GARDEN
VARIETY THUNDERSTORMS. THE FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT WILL DEPEND ON HOW
MUCH RAIN FALL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATER THIS EVENING AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE NEAR THE AREA AND KICK OFF SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
TOMORROW AS THE TROUGH PASSES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

OUR WEATHER PATTERN WILL START OUT WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EAST COAST WITH DRY NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE OVER EAST
KENTUCKY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S...WITH SOME LOW 70S BY SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST WITH SOMEWHAT FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WITH TIME
AS THIS TAKES PLACE...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO REAPPEAR AS A
SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES PASS THROUGH THE BUILDING RIDGE. WILL
ADVERTISE 20-30 POPS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH
IT APPEARS INSTABILITY REMAINS ABSENT UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN SOME
THUNDER WILL BE ADDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE THE FIRST CONCERN OVERNIGHT. VISIBILITY
WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE AS FOG TRIES TO FORM DESPITE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A STRATOCU DECK BETWEEN 2 AND 3K FEET AGL. HAVE GONE WITH MAINLY
MVFR CONDITIONS AT LOZ AND SME...WITH IFR AT JKL...HOWEVER TEMPORARY
FLUCTUATIONS ESPECIALLY IN VISIBILITY COULD BRING IFR OR WORSE
CONDITIONS THROUGH DAWN. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
DAY...WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY. WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT TO
THE WEST AND COULD GUST IN THE 20 KT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. MVFR
STRATOCU WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT...WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY DESCEND TO IFR
STATUS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

000
FXUS63 KJKL 222341
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
741 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 743 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO GET RID OF THE PRE FIRST PERIOD WORDING AND
TO BETTER TIME THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE AREA. THE VERY UNSTABLE
AIR OUT IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AIR PRODUCED A
COUPLE OF DECENT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER THEY WERE NOT ABLE
TO PRODUCE ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER LINE OF STORMS IS JUST
ENTERING EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM THE WEST. THESE STORMS ARE MUCH LIKE
THE ONES EARLIER IN THE EASTERN HALF OF EASTERN KENTUCKY AND SHOULD
ONLY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 40 MPH AND SMALL
HAIL. HAVE BEEN HANGING ONTO THE WATCH BOX...HOWEVER MAY CONSIDER
CANCELING IT SOON. WILL WAIT AND SEE IT THIS LINE MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST BEHAVES. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

STILL WAITING FOR THE CONVECTION TO GET GOING TODAY. THE AREA WEST
OF JKL IS MORE STABLE THAN WHAT WE SAY YESTERDAY. THE AREA TO THE
EAST WHERE THERE HAS BEEN A LOT LESS CLOUD COVER IS BECOMING VERY
UNSTABLE. THE MISSING INGREDIENT IS SOME FORCING TO GET THE
CONVECTION GOING. WITH TIME THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH
AND THEN SOME CONVECTION MAY START POPPING UP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.
THIS EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE ANY SEVERE
WEATHER TODAY. AT THE TAF STATIONS...THEY SHOULD SEE JUST GARDEN
VARIETY THUNDERSTORMS. THE FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT WILL DEPEND ON HOW
MUCH RAIN FALL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATER THIS EVENING AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE NEAR THE AREA AND KICK OFF SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
TOMORROW AS THE TROUGH PASSES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

OUR WEATHER PATTERN WILL START OUT WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EAST COAST WITH DRY NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE OVER EAST
KENTUCKY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S...WITH SOME LOW 70S BY SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST WITH SOMEWHAT FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WITH TIME
AS THIS TAKES PLACE...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO REAPPEAR AS A
SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES PASS THROUGH THE BUILDING RIDGE. WILL
ADVERTISE 20-30 POPS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH
IT APPEARS INSTABILITY REMAINS ABSENT UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN SOME
THUNDER WILL BE ADDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

THE VERY UNSTABLE AIR OUT IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AIR
PRODUCED A COUPLE OF DECENT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER THEY WERE
NOT ABLE TO PRODUCE ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER LINE OF STORMS
IS JUST ENTERING EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM THE WEST. THESE STORMS ARE
MUCH LIKE THE ONES EARLIER IN THE EASTERN HALF OF EASTERN KENTUCKY
AND SHOULD ONLY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 40 MPH
AND SMALL HAIL.THE FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAIN
FALL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PUT SOME MIST IN THE FORECAST
THINKING THAT ALL THE STATIONS WILL SEE SOME RAINFALL. LATER THIS
EVENING AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND KICK OFF SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXCEPT FOR SOME TEMPO IFR
VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS...MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE VFR UNTIL AFTER
6Z WHEN SOME MIST WILL BE FORMING. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN AFTER 18Z.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE... /JJ
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...JJ

000
FXUS63 KJKL 221820
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
220 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

STILL WAITING FOR THE CONVECTION TO GET GOING TODAY. THE AREA WEST
OF JKL IS MORE STABLE THAN WHAT WE SAY YESTERDAY. THE AREA TO THE
EAST WHERE THERE HAS BEEN A LOT LESS CLOUD COVER IS BECOMING VERY
UNSTABLE. THE MISSING INGREDIENT IS SOME FORCING TO GET THE
CONVECTION GOING. WITH TIME THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH
AND THEN SOME CONVECTION MAY START POPPING UP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.
THIS EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE ANY SEVERE
WEATHER TODAY. AT THE TAF STATIONS...THEY SHOULD SEE JUST GARDEN
VARIETY THUNDERSTORMS. THE FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT WILL DEPEND ON HOW
MUCH RAIN FALL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATER THIS EVENING AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE NEAR THE AREA AND KICK OFF SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
TOMORROW AS THE TROUGH PASSES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

OUR WEATHER PATTERN WILL START OUT WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EAST COAST WITH DRY NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE OVER EAST
KENTUCKY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S...WITH SOME LOW 70S BY SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST WITH SOMEWHAT FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WITH TIME
AS THIS TAKES PLACE...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO REAPPEAR AS A
SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES PASS THROUGH THE BUILDING RIDGE. WILL
ADVERTISE 20-30 POPS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH
IT APPEARS INSTABILITY REMAINS ABSENT UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN SOME
THUNDER WILL BE ADDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

STILL WAITING FOR THE CONVECTION TO GET GOING TODAY. THE AREA WEST OF
JKL IS MORE STABLE THAN WHAT WE SAY YESTERDAY. THE AREA TO THE EAST
WHERE THERE HAS BEEN A LOT LESS CLOUD COVER IS BECOMING VERY
UNSTABLE. THE MISSING INGREDIENT IS SOME FORCING TO GET THE CONVECTION
GOING. WITH TIME THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH AND THEN SOME
CONVECTION MAY START POPPING UP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THIS EASTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE ANY SEVERE WEATHER TODAY. AT THE
TAF STATIONS...THEY SHOULD SEE JUST GARDEN VARIETY THUNDERSTORMS.
THE FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PUT SOME MIST IN THE FORECAST THINKING THAT
ALL THE STATIONS WILL SEE SOME RAINFALL. LATER THIS EVENING AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND KICK OFF SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXCEPT FOR SOME TEMPO IFR VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS...MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE VFR UNTIL AFTER 6Z WHEN
SOME MIST WILL BE FORMING.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...JJ

000
FXUS63 KJKL 221800
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
200 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

STILL WAITING FOR THE CONVECTION TO GET GOING TODAY. THE AREA WEST OF
JKL IS MORE STABLE THAN WHAT WE SAY YESTERDAY. THE AREA TO THE EAST
WHERE THERE HAS BEEN A LOT LESS CLOUD COVER IS BECOMING VERY
UNSTABLE. THE MISSING INGREDIENT IS SOME FORCING TO GET THE CONVECTION
GOING. WITH TIME THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH AND THEN SOME
CONVECTION MAY START POPPING UP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THIS EASTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE ANY SEVERE WEATHER TODAY. AT THE
TAF STATIONS...THEY SHOULD SEE JUST GARDEN VARIETY THUNDERSTORMS.
THE FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATER THIS EVENING AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
NEAR THE AREA AND KICK OFF SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TOMORROW AS
THE TROUGH PASSES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

THE EXTENDED DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

STILL WAITING FOR THE CONVECTION TO GET GOING TODAY. THE AREA WEST OF
JKL IS MORE STABLE THAN WHAT WE SAY YESTERDAY. THE AREA TO THE EAST
WHERE THERE HAS BEEN A LOT LESS CLOUD COVER IS BECOMING VERY
UNSTABLE. THE MISSING INGREDIENT IS SOME FORCING TO GET THE CONVECTION
GOING. WITH TIME THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH AND THEN SOME
CONVECTION MAY START POPPING UP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THIS EASTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE ANY SEVERE WEATHER TODAY. AT THE
TAF STATIONS...THEY SHOULD SEE JUST GARDEN VARIETY THUNDERSTORMS.
THE FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PUT SOME MIST IN THE FORECAST THINKING THAT
ALL THE STATIONS WILL SEE SOME RAINFALL. LATER THIS EVENING AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND KICK OFF SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXCEPT FOR SOME TEMPO IFR VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS...MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE VFR UNTIL AFTER 6Z WHEN
SOME MIST WILL BE FORMING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...JJ

000
FXUS63 KJKL 221437
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1037 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1035 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO DELAY THE ONSET OF SHOWERS UNTIL AFTER NOON.
THERE IS ENOUGH DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS...THAT CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY
LOW IN FIGURING OUT EXACTLY WHERE THE CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL BE.
IN GENERAL...IT IS NOT AS UNSTABLE AS YESTERDAY. THE NAM WAS SHOWING
SOME MID LEVEL WARMING AND A BIT OF A CAP POSSIBLY FORMING AROUND 500
HPA. AS SUCH ALL THE STABILITY INDUCES ARE SHOWING LESS LIKELIHOOD OF
SEVERE WEATHER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE REST OF THE FORECAST
IS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 728 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

GRIDS WERE UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE
TRENDS AND TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA AND TSRA
MOVING NORTHEAST FROM EASTERN MIDDLE TN/CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION.
THIS SHOULD WORK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AND PROBABLY WEAKEN WITH TIME. OTHERWISE...WE STILL EXPECT A
GENERAL INCREASE IN CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME OF IT IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING POSSIBLY BEING SEVERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

EARLY THIS MORNING...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW HAD MEANDERED TO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/UPPER MS VALLEY REGION. TO ITS SOUTH A RATHER SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS WORKING TOWARD THE MID AND LOWER MS VALLEY
REGIONS. THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO AN OPEN WAVE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO WORK INTO THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TO REACH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES/LOWER TO MID OH VALLEY AND TN VALLEY REGION BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME...THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
SHOULD TRACK WELL INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH THE TRIALING COLD FRONT ENTERING THE COMMONWEALTH
TODAY...THOUGH IT SHOULD NOT CROSS EASTERN KY UNTIL THU AFTERNOON.

THE REGION IS CURRENTLY IN A LULL IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED OVER
WESTERN KY AND IN THE MS RIVER VALLEY ON TUE EVENING HAS WORKED INTO
THE CWA. IT IS LIKELY RATHER ILL DEFINED ATTM...BUT STILL MAY BE
ENOUGH TO BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY. ALSO...DEBRIS
CLOUDS OR PERHAPS SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING EARLY IN
THE DAY AS REMAINING CONVECTION OVER WESTERN AND MIDDLE TN WORKS
NORTHEAST TOWARD CENTRAL AND EASTERN KY. HOWEVER...BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS AND SOME LIMITED HEATING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RATHER QUICKLY
REACH THE 80S BY MIDDAY TO AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD
TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AT ABOUT THE SAME TIME THAT WINDS ALOFT WILL
ALSO BE INCREASING WITH LOW LEVEL JET CORE REMAINING GENERALLY TO OUR
WEST AND NORTH. WITH THE COLD FRONT WORKING INTO THE COMMONWEALTH
AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...A LINE OR
SEVERAL LINE SEGMENTS OF CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP TO OUR WEST OR
PERHAPS OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND WORK ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THE EVENING. THE FORECAST WIND PROFILE IS RATHER UNIDIRECTIONAL AND
MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS LIMITED AND CONSIDERING FEW HAIL REPORTS FROM
TUE AFTERNOON...IT WOULD SEEM THAT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE
MAIN THREAT FROM STORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SHEAR
WILL BE A BIT BETTER GENERALLY ALONG/NORTH OF THE I 64 CORRIDOR AND
AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IN THE HWO...THE SLIGHT RISK
AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED.

DEEPER MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY BE DEPARTING TO THE EAST TONIGHT...BUT
AT THE SAME TIME...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND LEAD SHORTWAVE
WILL STILL BE CROSSING THE AREA. CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT WELL
INTO THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST...BUT COVERAGE OF THUNDER
SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON AND WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING INTENSITY SHOULD WANE BY 3Z...OR 11 PM EDT...IF NOT
EARLIER.

DAYTIME HEATING ON THU COMBINED WITH THE COLD FRONT WORKING ACROSS
EASTERN KY AND THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS TO WORK THROUGH
SHOULD GENERALLY COINCIDE WITH DAYTIME HEATING SO HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS WERE USED FOR SHOWERS THOUGH ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL
LINGER FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE WITH THE LONG WAVE BLOCKY PATTERN THAT
WILL DOMINATE THE CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY
REACH THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY FRIDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
WIND DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A
LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM CANADA. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE MID 60S...WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT DOWN INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 40S.

THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH THAT
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE LATEST 00Z ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ON THE EARLY ARRIVAL OF
THIS FEATURE COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...HOWEVER IT STILL KEEPS THIS
BOUNDARY POSITIONED MUCH FURTHER SOUTH AND MORE ACROSS OUR AREA THAN
THE GFS...WHICH KEEPS THE BOUNDARY MORE ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. AS
SUCH...WILL CONTINUE TO COMPROMISE WITH A BLEND FOR NOW...BRINGING IN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN CHANCE POPS MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT AT AROUND 80 BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA AND TSRA SHOULD AFFECT SME AND LOZ OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE
CUMBERLAND REGION. AFTER ABOUT 17Z...CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND/OR STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KY. THERE IS A SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS COULD IMPACT ALL THREE TAF SITES AT SOME POINT BETWEEN 18Z AND
0Z. OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION...GENERALLY VFR IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH
VALLEY FOG MAY REDEVELOP BY 6Z AND POSSIBLY BRING MVFR OR LOWER VSBY
TO THE TAF SITES.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJ
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...JP

000
FXUS63 KJKL 221127 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
727 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 728 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

GRIDS WERE UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE
TRENDS AND TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA AND TSRA
MOVING NORTHEAST FROM EASTERN MIDDLE TN/CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION.
THIS SHOULD WORK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AND PROBABLY WEAKEN WITH TIME. OTHERWISE...WE STILL EXPECT A
GENERAL INCREASE IN CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME OF IT IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING POSSIBLY BEING SEVERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

EARLY THIS MORNING...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW HAD MEANDERED TO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/UPPER MS VALLEY REGION. TO ITS SOUTH A RATHER SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS WORKING TOWARD THE MID AND LOWER MS VALLEY
REGIONS. THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO AN OPEN WAVE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO WORK INTO THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TO REACH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES/LOWER TO MID OH VALLEY AND TN VALLEY REGION BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME...THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
SHOULD TRACK WELL INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH THE TRIALING COLD FRONT ENTERING THE COMMONWEALTH
TODAY...THOUGH IT SHOULD NOT CROSS EASTERN KY UNTIL THU AFTERNOON.

THE REGION IS CURRENTLY IN A LULL IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED OVER
WESTERN KY AND IN THE MS RIVER VALLEY ON TUE EVENING HAS WORKED INTO
THE CWA. IT IS LIKELY RATHER ILL DEFINED ATTM...BUT STILL MAY BE
ENOUGH TO BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY. ALSO...DEBRIS
CLOUDS OR PERHAPS SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING EARLY IN
THE DAY AS REMAINING CONVECTION OVER WESTERN AND MIDDLE TN WORKS
NORTHEAST TOWARD CENTRAL AND EASTERN KY. HOWEVER...BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS AND SOME LIMITED HEATING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RATHER QUICKLY
REACH THE 80S BY MIDDAY TO AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD
TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AT ABOUT THE SAME TIME THAT WINDS ALOFT WILL
ALSO BE INCREASING WITH LOW LEVEL JET CORE REMAINING GENERALLY TO OUR
WEST AND NORTH. WITH THE COLD FRONT WORKING INTO THE COMMONWEALTH
AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...A LINE OR
SEVERAL LINE SEGMENTS OF CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP TO OUR WEST OR
PERHAPS OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND WORK ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THE EVENING. THE FORECAST WIND PROFILE IS RATHER UNIDIRECTIONAL AND
MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS LIMITED AND CONSIDERING FEW HAIL REPORTS FROM
TUE AFTERNOON...IT WOULD SEEM THAT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE
MAIN THREAT FROM STORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SHEAR
WILL BE A BIT BETTER GENERALLY ALONG/NORTH OF THE I 64 CORRIDOR AND
AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IN THE HWO...THE SLIGHT RISK
AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED.

DEEPER MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY BE DEPARTING TO THE EAST TONIGHT...BUT
AT THE SAME TIME...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND LEAD SHORTWAVE
WILL STILL BE CROSSING THE AREA. CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT WELL
INTO THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST...BUT COVERAGE OF THUNDER
SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON AND WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING INTENSITY SHOULD WANE BY 3Z...OR 11 PM EDT...IF NOT
EARLIER.

DAYTIME HEATING ON THU COMBINED WITH THE COLD FRONT WORKING ACROSS
EASTERN KY AND THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS TO WORK THROUGH
SHOULD GENERALLY COINCIDE WITH DAYTIME HEATING SO HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS WERE USED FOR SHOWERS THOUGH ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL
LINGER FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE WITH THE LONG WAVE BLOCKY PATTERN THAT
WILL DOMINATE THE CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY
REACH THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY FRIDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
WIND DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A
LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM CANADA. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE MID 60S...WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT DOWN INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 40S.

THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH THAT
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE LATEST 00Z ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ON THE EARLY ARRIVAL OF
THIS FEATURE COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...HOWEVER IT STILL KEEPS THIS
BOUNDARY POSITIONED MUCH FURTHER SOUTH AND MORE ACROSS OUR AREA THAN
THE GFS...WHICH KEEPS THE BOUNDARY MORE ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. AS
SUCH...WILL CONTINUE TO COMPROMISE WITH A BLEND FOR NOW...BRINGING IN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN CHANCE POPS MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT AT AROUND 80 BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA AND TSRA SHOULD AFFECT SME AND LOZ OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE
CUMBERLAND REGION. AFTER ABOUT 17Z...CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND/OR STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KY. THERE IS A SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS COULD IMPACT ALL THREE TAF SITES AT SOME POINT BETWEEN 18Z AND
0Z. OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION...GENERALLY VFR IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH
VALLEY FOG MAY REDEVELOP BY 6Z AND POSSIBLY BRING MVFR OR LOWER VIS
TO THE TAF SITES.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...JP

000
FXUS63 KJKL 220833 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
433 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

EARLY THIS MORNING...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW HAD MEANDERED TO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/UPPER MS VALLEY REGION. TO ITS SOUTH A RATHER SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS WORKING TOWARD THE MID AND LOWER MS VALLEY
REGIONS. THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO AN OPEN WAVE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO WORK INTO THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TO REACH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES/LOWER TO MID OH VALLEY AND TN VALLEY REGION BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME...THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
SHOULD TRACK WELL INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH THE TRIALING COLD FRONT ENTERING THE COMMONWEALTH
TODAY...THOUGH IT SHOULD NOT CROSS EASTERN KY UNTIL THU AFTERNOON.

THE REGION IS CURRENTLY IN A LULL IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED OVER
WESTERN KY AND IN THE MS RIVER VALLEY ON TUE EVENING HAS WORKED INTO
THE CWA. IT IS LIKELY RATHER ILL DEFINED ATTM...BUT STILL MAY BE
ENOUGH TO BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY. ALSO...DEBRIS
CLOUDS OR PERHAPS SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING EARLY IN
THE DAY AS REMAINING CONVECTION OVER WESTERN AND MIDDLE TN WORKS
NORTHEAST TOWARD CENTRAL AND EASTERN KY. HOWEVER...BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS AND SOME LIMITED HEATING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RATHER QUICKLY
REACH THE 80S BY MIDDAY TO AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD
TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AT ABOUT THE SAME TIME THAT WINDS ALOFT WILL
ALSO BE INCREASING WITH LOW LEVEL JET CORE REMAINING GENERALLY TO OUR
WEST AND NORTH. WITH THE COLD FRONT WORKING INTO THE COMMONWEALTH
AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...A LINE OR
SEVERAL LINE SEGMENTS OF CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP TO OUR WEST OR
PERHAPS OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND WORK ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THE EVENING. THE FORECAST WIND PROFILE IS RATHER UNIDIRECTIONAL AND
MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS LIMITED AND CONSIDERING FEW HAIL REPORTS FROM
TUE AFTERNOON...IT WOULD SEEM THAT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE
MAIN THREAT FROM STORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SHEAR
WILL BE A BIT BETTER GENERALLY ALONG/NORTH OF THE I 64 CORRIDOR AND
AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IN THE HWO...THE SLIGHT RISK
AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED.

DEEPER MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY BE DEPARTING TO THE EAST TONIGHT...BUT
AT THE SAME TIME...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND LEAD SHORTWAVE
WILL STILL BE CROSSING THE AREA. CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT WELL
INTO THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST...BUT COVERAGE OF THUNDER
SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON AND WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING INTENSITY SHOULD WANE BY 3Z...OR 11 PM EDT...IF NOT
EARLIER.

DAYTIME HEATING ON THU COMBINED WITH THE COLD FRONT WORKING ACROSS
EASTERN KY AND THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS TO WORK THROUGH
SHOULD GENERALLY COINCIDE WITH DAYTIME HEATING SO HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS WERE USED FOR SHOWERS THOUGH ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL
LINGER FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE WITH THE LONG WAVE BLOCKY PATTERN THAT
WILL DOMINATE THE CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY
REACH THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY FRIDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
WIND DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A
LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM CANADA. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE MID 60S...WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT DOWN INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 40S.

THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH THAT
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE LATEST 00Z ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ON THE EARLY ARRIVAL OF
THIS FEATURE COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...HOWEVER IT STILL KEEPS THIS
BOUNDARY POSITIONED MUCH FURTHER SOUTH AND MORE ACROSS OUR AREA THAN
THE GFS...WHICH KEEPS THE BOUNDARY MORE ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. AS
SUCH...WILL CONTINUE TO COMPROMISE WITH A BLEND FOR NOW...BRINGING IN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN CHANCE POPS MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT AT AROUND 80 BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

A RELATIVE LULL IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE FIRST 6
TO 10 HOURS OF THE PERIOD. SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TSRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WORKS IN...BUT INSTABILITY IS RATHER MINIMAL
ATTM. AND/AFTER ABOUT 15Z...CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN AND SEVERE THREAT AND STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD IMPACT ALL
THREE TAF SITES AT SOME POINT DURING THE 18Z AND 0Z PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF
ANY CONVECTION...VALLEY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND BECOME DENSE
IN RIVER VALLEYS...BEFORE DISSIPATING BY 13Z. AT THE TAF SITES...SOME
MVFR IN BR IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z OR 13Z.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...JP

000
FXUS63 KJKL 220800
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
400 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

EARLY THIS MORNING...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW HAD MEANDERED TO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/UPPER MS VALLEY REGION. TO ITS SOUTH A RATHER SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS WORKING TOWARD THE MID AND LOWER MS VALLEY
REGIONS. THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO AN OPEN WAVE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO WORK INTO THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TO REACH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES/LOWER TO MID OH VALLEY AND TN VALLEY REGION BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME...THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
SHOULD TRACK WELL INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH THE TRIALING COLD FRONT ENTERING THE COMMONWEALTH
TODAY...THOUGH IT SHOULD NOT CROSS EASTERN KY UNTIL THU AFTERNOON.

THE REGION IS CURRENTLY IN A LULL IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED OVER
WESTERN KY AND IN THE MS RIVER VALLEY ON TUE EVENING HAS WORKED INTO
THE CWA. IT IS LIKELY RATHER ILL DEFINED ATTM...BUT STILL MAY BE
ENOUGH TO BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY. ALSO...DEBRIS
CLOUDS OR PERHAPS SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING EARLY IN
THE DAY AS REMAINING CONVECTION OVER WESTERN AND MIDDLE TN WORKS
NORTHEAST TOWARD CENTRAL AND EASTERN KY. HOWEVER...BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS AND SOME LIMITED HEATING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RATHER QUICKLY
REACH THE 80S BY MIDDAY TO AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD
TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AT ABOUT THE SAME TIME THAT WINDS ALOFT WILL
ALSO BE INCREASING WITH LOW LEVEL JET CORE REMAINING GENERALLY TO OUR
WEST AND NORTH. WITH THE COLD FRONT WORKING INTO THE COMMONWEALTH
AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...A LINE OR
SEVERAL LINE SEGMENTS OF CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP TO OUR WEST OR
PERHAPS OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND WORK ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THE EVENING. THE FORECAST WIND PROFILE IS RATHER UNIDIRECTIONAL AND
MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS LIMITED AND CONSIDERING FEW HAIL REPORTS FROM
TUE AFTERNOON...IT WOULD SEEM THAT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE
MAIN THREAT FROM STORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SHEAR
WILL BE A BIT BETTER GENERALLY ALONG/NORTH OF THE I 64 CORRIDOR AND
AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IN THE HWO...THE SLIGHT RISK
AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED.

DEEPER MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY BE DEPARTING TO THE EAST TONIGHT...BUT
AT THE SAME TIME...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND LEAD SHORTWAVE
WILL STILL BE CROSSING THE AREA. CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT WELL
INTO THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST...BUT COVERAGE OF THUNDER
SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON AND WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING INTENSITY SHOULD WANE BY 3Z...OR 11 PM EDT...IF NOT
EARLIER.

DAYTIME HEATING ON THU COMBINED WITH THE COLD FRONT WORKING ACROSS
EASTERN KY AND THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS TO WORK THROUGH
SHOULD GENERALLY COINCIDE WITH DAYTIME HEATING SO HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS WERE USED FOR SHOWERS THOUGH ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL
LINGER FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

THE EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

A RELATIVE LULL IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE FIRST 6
TO 10 HOURS OF THE PERIOD. SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TSRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WORKS IN...BUT INSTABILITY IS RATHER MINIMAL
ATTM. AND/AFTER ABOUT 15Z...CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN AND SEVERE THREAT AND STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD IMPACT ALL
THREE TAF SITES AT SOME POINT DURING THE 18Z AND 0Z PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF
ANY CONVECTION...VALLEY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND BECOME DENSE
IN RIVER VALLEYS...BEFORE DISSIPATING BY 13Z. AT THE TAF SITES...SOME
MVFR IN BR IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z OR 13Z.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...JP

000
FXUS63 KJKL 220602 AAC
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
202 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

HOURLY TEMP...DEWPOINT AND SKY GRIDS WERE FRESHENED UP A BIT BASED ON
RECENT OBS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS WORKING ITS
WAY INTO THE LAKE CUMBERLAND REGION. EAST KY IS GENERALLY WORKED OVER
FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE WESTERN CWA
OVERNIGHT AS THIS WORKS IN. PATCHY FOG SHOULD CONTINUE TO FORM
ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1115 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

DID AN OVERNIGHT UPDATE TO BETTER TIME THE NEXT BATCH OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT THE
MESOSCALE FEATURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CURRENT CONVECTION TO THE WEST
TO FURTHER WEAKEN AS IT COMES EAST AND ENCOUNTERS OUR RAIN COOLED
AIR. HOWEVER...THERE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH LIFT LEFT WITH THIS TO
KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH DAWN. HAVE ALSO ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG TO THE HILLS
EARLY THIS NIGHT AND IN THE VALLEYS TOWARD DAWN. OTHERWISE...JUST
MATCHED UP THE CURRENT OBS AND TREND TO THE T AND TD GRIDS. UPDATES
HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH THE HWO AND
ZFP.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 905 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL TRENDS.
THE LINE OF STORMS HAS MOVED OUT OF EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO WEST
VIRGINIA. WIDESPREAD DAMAGE WAS REPORTED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM. THE BIG QUESTION NOW IS WHAT THE SQUALL
LINE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AND WESTERN TENNESSEE WILL DO. BY RAW
EXTRAPOLATION...THE LINE WOULD BE MOVING NEAR EASTERN KENTUCKY AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...AM GOING WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS
THAT THE LINE WILL DIE OUT JUST AS IT ENTERS EASTERN KENTUCKY. WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TONIGHT TO SEE WHAT IT DOES. AS THE LOWER
PORTION OF THE ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES...IT WILL BE MUCH HARDER TO MIX
DOWN ANY STRONG WINDS TO THE SURFACE...SO IT SHOULD MAINLY BE A
THUNDERSTORM THREAT. THINGS WILL GET MORE ACTIVE AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE AN ISSUE TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THE AIR IS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AND SO A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH WAS
ISSUED FOR ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY IN AN AREA. THE MAIN THREAT IS FOR
STRONG WINDS...HOWEVER HAIL CAN NOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT AND WILL
LIKELY SEE AT LEAST SMALL HAIL IN THE AREA TODAY. WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THE AREA...THE POSSIBILITY OF GUST
FRONTS WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE. SEVERE WINDS
COULD ARRIVE WELL AHEAD OF THE PRECIPITATION. THE STORMS TO THE WEST
OF THE AREA HAVE HAD REPORTS OF SEVERE WIND...SO THIS THREAT IS REAL
AND IMMINENT. ONCE THIS LINE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...THEN THERE
SHOULD BE A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY...AND THEN WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AND AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE
STORMS TOMORROW MAY BE STRONG AS WELL. FOR TEMPERATURES...USED A
BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS TO ADJUST THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE
WATCH IS VALID UNTIL 10 PM TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE A PERIOD OF GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT...AND A PERIOD OF POOR MODEL AGREEMENT. THE FIRST FEW
DAYS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WERE HANDLED VERY WELL BY BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF MODELS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING
THE DAY ON THURSDAY...BEFORE EXITING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THE MODELS ALL AGREE THAT A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL MEAN COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER TO KICK OFF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. AFTER SATURDAY NIGHT...THINGS GET A BIT MURKY. THE
ECMWF MODEL IS MUCH WETTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS
MODEL...BOTH IN THE TIMING OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE ECMWF ACTUALLY
HAS PRECIPITATION AFFECTING EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE GFS...ON THE OTHER HAND...IS NOT MOVING PRECIP
INTO THE AREA UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. FROM THEN ON THE MODELS DO
AGREE FAIRLY WELL...BUT ONLY FOR THE LAST DAY OR SO OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THAT BEING SAID...LEANED A BIT MORE TOWARD THE USUALLY MORE
RELIABLE ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS FROM EARLY SUNDAY ONWARD. DID NOT DO
A WHOLE LOT OF MAJOR CHANGING TO THE MODEL DATA BASED ON THE AMOUNT
OF UNCERTAINTY. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS WERE INDICATING ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING PERIODS THURSDAY...SUNDAY...AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN
THE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS IT APPEARS A
COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FOR A FEW DAYS. FROM
SUNDAY ONWARD...THINGS WILL WARM UP A BIT MORE DURING EACH DAYTIME
PERIOD...BUT NOT FAR FROM NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

A RELATIVE LULL IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE FIRST 6
TO 10 HOURS OF THE PERIOD. SOME ISOALTED TO SCATTERED SHRA AND
PERHAPS AN ISOALTED TSRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WORKS IN...BUT INSTABILITY IS RATHER MINIMAL
ATTM. AND/AFTER ABOUT 15Z...CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN AND SEVERE THREAT AND STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD IMPACT ALL
THREE TAF SITES AT SOME POINT DURING THE 18Z AND 0Z PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF
ANY CONVECTION...VALLEY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND BECOME DENSE
IN RIVER VALLEYS...BEFORE DISSIPATING BY 13Z. AT THE TAF SITES...SOME
MVFR IN BR IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z OR 13Z.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JP

000
FXUS63 KJKL 220315 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1115 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1115 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

DID AN OVERNIGHT UPDATE TO BETTER TIME THE NEXT BATCH OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT THE
MESOSCALE FEATURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CURRENT CONVECTION TO THE WEST
TO FURTHER WEAKEN AS IT COMES EAST AND ENCOUNTERS OUR RAIN COOLED
AIR. HOWEVER...THERE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH LIFT LEFT WITH THIS TO
KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH DAWN. HAVE ALSO ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG TO THE HILLS
EARLY THIS NIGHT AND IN THE VALLEYS TOWARD DAWN. OTHERWISE...JUST
MATCHED UP THE CURRENT OBS AND TREND TO THE T AND TD GRIDS. UPDATES
HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH THE HWO AND
ZFP.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 905 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL TRENDS.
THE LINE OF STORMS HAS MOVED OUT OF EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO WEST
VIRGINIA. WIDESPREAD DAMAGE WAS REPORTED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM. THE BIG QUESTION NOW IS WHAT THE SQUALL
LINE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AND WESTERN TENNESSEE WILL DO. BY RAW
EXTRAPOLATION...THE LINE WOULD BE MOVING NEAR EASTERN KENTUCKY AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...AM GOING WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS
THAT THE LINE WILL DIE OUT JUST AS IT ENTERS EASTERN KENTUCKY. WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TONIGHT TO SEE WHAT IT DOES. AS THE LOWER
PORTION OF THE ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES...IT WILL BE MUCH HARDER TO MIX
DOWN ANY STRONG WINDS TO THE SURFACE...SO IT SHOULD MAINLY BE A
THUNDERSTORM THREAT. THINGS WILL GET MORE ACTIVE AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE AN ISSUE TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THE AIR IS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AND SO A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH WAS
ISSUED FOR ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY IN AN AREA. THE MAIN THREAT IS FOR
STRONG WINDS...HOWEVER HAIL CAN NOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT AND WILL
LIKELY SEE AT LEAST SMALL HAIL IN THE AREA TODAY. WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THE AREA...THE POSSIBILITY OF GUST
FRONTS WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE. SEVERE WINDS
COULD ARRIVE WELL AHEAD OF THE PRECIPITATION. THE STORMS TO THE WEST
OF THE AREA HAVE HAD REPORTS OF SEVERE WIND...SO THIS THREAT IS REAL
AND IMMINENT. ONCE THIS LINE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...THEN THERE
SHOULD BE A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY...AND THEN WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AND AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE
STORMS TOMORROW MAY BE STRONG AS WELL. FOR TEMPERATURES...USED A
BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS TO ADJUST THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE
WATCH IS VALID UNTIL 10 PM TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE A PERIOD OF GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT...AND A PERIOD OF POOR MODEL AGREEMENT. THE FIRST FEW
DAYS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WERE HANDLED VERY WELL BY BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF MODELS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING
THE DAY ON THURSDAY...BEFORE EXITING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THE MODELS ALL AGREE THAT A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL MEAN COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER TO KICK OFF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. AFTER SATURDAY NIGHT...THINGS GET A BIT MURKY. THE
ECMWF MODEL IS MUCH WETTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS
MODEL...BOTH IN THE TIMING OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE ECMWF ACTUALLY
HAS PRECIPITATION AFFECTING EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE GFS...ON THE OTHER HAND...IS NOT MOVING PRECIP
INTO THE AREA UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. FROM THEN ON THE MODELS DO
AGREE FAIRLY WELL...BUT ONLY FOR THE LAST DAY OR SO OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THAT BEING SAID...LEANED A BIT MORE TOWARD THE USUALLY MORE
RELIABLE ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS FROM EARLY SUNDAY ONWARD. DID NOT DO
A WHOLE LOT OF MAJOR CHANGING TO THE MODEL DATA BASED ON THE AMOUNT
OF UNCERTAINTY. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS WERE INDICATING ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING PERIODS THURSDAY...SUNDAY...AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN
THE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS IT APPEARS A
COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FOR A FEW DAYS. FROM
SUNDAY ONWARD...THINGS WILL WARM UP A BIT MORE DURING EACH DAYTIME
PERIOD...BUT NOT FAR FROM NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 905 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THE LINE OF STORMS HAS MOVED OUT OF EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO WEST
VIRGINIA. WIDESPREAD DAMAGE WAS REPORTED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM. THE BIG QUESTION NOW IS WHAT THE SQUALL
LINE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AND WESTERN TENNESSEE WILL DO. BY RAW
EXTRAPOLATION...THE LINE WOULD BE MOVING NEAR EASTERN KENTUCKY AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...AM GOING WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS
THAT THE LINE WILL DIE OUT JUST AS IT ENTERS EASTERN KENTUCKY. WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TONIGHT TO SEE WHAT IT DOES. AS THE LOWER
PORTION OF THE ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES...IT WILL BE MUCH HARDER TO MIX
DOWN ANY STRONG WINDS TO THE SURFACE...SO IT SHOULD MAINLY BE A
THUNDERSTORM THREAT. THINGS WILL GET MORE ACTIVE AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE AN ISSUE TOMORROW. CONDITIONS ARE MOSTLY VFR ACROSS THE
AREA. EXPECTING SOME VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING BUT MOSTLY IN THE DEEP
VALLEYS. THINKING THAT SOME MIST MAY DRIFT ACROSS JKL IN THE MORNING.
EXPECTING THE BIGGEST THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE TAF.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JJ

000
FXUS63 KJKL 220105
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
905 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 905 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL TRENDS.
THE LINE OF STORMS HAS MOVED OUT OF EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO WEST
VIRGINIA. WIDESPREAD DAMAGE WAS REPORTED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM. THE BIG QUESTION NOW IS WHAT THE SQUALL
LINE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AND WESTERN TENNESSEE WILL DO. BY RAW
EXTRAPOLATION...THE LINE WOULD BE MOVING NEAR EASTERN KENTUCKY AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...AM GOING WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS
THAT THE LINE WILL DIE OUT JUST AS IT ENTERS EASTERN KENTUCKY. WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TONIGHT TO SEE WHAT IT DOES. AS THE LOWER
PORTION OF THE ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES...IT WILL BE MUCH HARDER TO MIX
DOWN ANY STRONG WINDS TO THE SURFACE...SO IT SHOULD MAINLY BE A
THUNDERSTORM THREAT. THINGS WILL GET MORE ACTIVE AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE AN ISSUE TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THE AIR IS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AND SO A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH WAS
ISSUED FOR ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY IN AN AREA. THE MAIN THREAT IS FOR
STRONG WINDS...HOWEVER HAIL CAN NOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT AND WILL
LIKELY SEE AT LEAST SMALL HAIL IN THE AREA TODAY. WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THE AREA...THE POSSIBILITY OF GUST
FRONTS WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE. SEVERE WINDS
COULD ARRIVE WELL AHEAD OF THE PRECIPITATION. THE STORMS TO THE WEST
OF THE AREA HAVE HAD REPORTS OF SEVERE WIND...SO THIS THREAT IS REAL
AND IMMINENT. ONCE THIS LINE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...THEN THERE
SHOULD BE A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY...AND THEN WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AND AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE
STORMS TOMORROW MAY BE STRONG AS WELL. FOR TEMPERATURES...USED A
BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS TO ADJUST THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE
WATCH IS VALID UNTIL 10 PM TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE A PERIOD OF GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT...AND A PERIOD OF POOR MODEL AGREEMENT. THE FIRST FEW
DAYS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WERE HANDLED VERY WELL BY BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF MODELS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING
THE DAY ON THURSDAY...BEFORE EXITING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THE MODELS ALL AGREE THAT A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL MEAN COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER TO KICK OFF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. AFTER SATURDAY NIGHT...THINGS GET A BIT MURKY. THE
ECMWF MODEL IS MUCH WETTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS
MODEL...BOTH IN THE TIMING OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE ECMWF ACTUALLY
HAS PRECIPITATION AFFECTING EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE GFS...ON THE OTHER HAND...IS NOT MOVING PRECIP
INTO THE AREA UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. FROM THEN ON THE MODELS DO
AGREE FAIRLY WELL...BUT ONLY FOR THE LAST DAY OR SO OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THAT BEING SAID...LEANED A BIT MORE TOWARD THE USUALLY MORE
RELIABLE ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS FROM EARLY SUNDAY ONWARD. DID NOT DO
A WHOLE LOT OF MAJOR CHANGING TO THE MODEL DATA BASED ON THE AMOUNT
OF UNCERTAINTY. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS WERE INDICATING ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING PERIODS THURSDAY...SUNDAY...AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN
THE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS IT APPEARS A
COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FOR A FEW DAYS. FROM
SUNDAY ONWARD...THINGS WILL WARM UP A BIT MORE DURING EACH DAYTIME
PERIOD...BUT NOT FAR FROM NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 905 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THE LINE OF STORMS HAS MOVED OUT OF EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO WEST
VIRGINIA. WIDESPREAD DAMAGE WAS REPORTED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM. THE BIG QUESTION NOW IS WHAT THE SQUALL
LINE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AND WESTERN TENNESSEE WILL DO. BY RAW
EXTRAPOLATION...THE LINE WOULD BE MOVING NEAR EASTERN KENTUCKY AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...AM GOING WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS
THAT THE LINE WILL DIE OUT JUST AS IT ENTERS EASTERN KENTUCKY. WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TONIGHT TO SEE WHAT IT DOES. AS THE LOWER
PORTION OF THE ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES...IT WILL BE MUCH HARDER TO MIX
DOWN ANY STRONG WINDS TO THE SURFACE...SO IT SHOULD MAINLY BE A
THUNDERSTORM THREAT. THINGS WILL GET MORE ACTIVE AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE AN ISSUE TOMORROW. CONDITIONS ARE MOSTLY VFR ACROSS THE
AREA. EXPECTING SOME VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING BUT MOSTLY IN THE DEEP
VALLEYS. THINKING THAT SOME MIST MAY DRIFT ACROSS JKL IN THE MORNING.
EXPECTING THE BIGGEST THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE TAF.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJ
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JJ

000
FXUS63 KJKL 212028
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
428 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THE AIR IS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AND SO A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH WAS
ISSUED FOR ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY IN AN AREA. THE MAIN THREAT IS FOR
STRONG WINDS...HOWEVER HAIL CAN NOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT AND WILL
LIKELY SEE AT LEAST SMALL HAIL IN THE AREA TODAY. WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THE AREA...THE POSSIBILITY OF GUST
FRONTS WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE. SEVERE WINDS
COULD ARRIVE WELL AHEAD OF THE PRECIPITATION. THE STORMS TO THE WEST
OF THE AREA HAVE HAD REPORTS OF SEVERE WIND...SO THIS THREAT IS REAL
AND IMMINENT. ONCE THIS LINE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...THEN THERE
SHOULD BE A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY...AND THEN WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AND AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE
STORMS TOMORROW MAY BE STRONG AS WELL. FOR TEMPERATURES...USED A
BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS TO ADJUST THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE
WATCH IS VALID UNTIL 10 PM TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE A PERIOD OF GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT...AND A PERIOD OF POOR MODEL AGREEMENT. THE FIRST FEW
DAYS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WERE HANDLED VERY WELL BY BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF MODELS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING
THE DAY ON THURSDAY...BEFORE EXITING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THE MODELS ALL AGREE THAT A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL MEAN COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER TO KICK OFF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. AFTER SATURDAY NIGHT...THINGS GET A BIT MURKY. THE
ECMWF MODEL IS MUCH WETTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS
MODEL...BOTH IN THE TIMING OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE ECMWF ACTUALLY
HAS PRECIPITATION AFFECTING EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE GFS...ON THE OTHER HAND...IS NOT MOVING PRECIP
INTO THE AREA UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. FROM THEN ON THE MODELS DO
AGREE FAIRLY WELL...BUT ONLY FOR THE LAST DAY OR SO OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THAT BEING SAID...LEANED A BIT MORE TOWARD THE USUALLY MORE
RELIABLE ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS FROM EARLY SUNDAY ONWARD. DID NOT DO
A WHOLE LOT OF MAJOR CHANGING TO THE MODEL DATA BASED ON THE AMOUNT
OF UNCERTAINTY. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS WERE INDICATING ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING PERIODS THURSDAY...SUNDAY...AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN
THE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS IT APPEARS A
COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FOR A FEW DAYS. FROM
SUNDAY ONWARD...THINGS WILL WARM UP A BIT MORE DURING EACH DAYTIME
PERIOD...BUT NOT FAR FROM NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THE AIR IS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AND THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER JUST
UPDATED THEIR OUTLOOK AND PUT EASTERN KENTUCKY IN AN AREA OF SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREAT IS FOR STRONG
WINDS...HOWEVER HAIL CAN NOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT AND WILL LIKELY SEE
SMALL HAIL IN THE AREA TODAY. WITH THE POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS IN
THE AREA...THE POSSIBILITY OF GUST FRONTS WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE AND COULD CREATE SOME STRONG LLWS. CONFIDENCE
IN THE TIMING OF CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IS NOT HIGH...AND WAS BASED ON
A COMBINATION OF THE NAM AND HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH MODEL.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN OCCURS...THERE MAY BE A TIME OF POST
FRONTAL MIST WHICH WOULD LAST A FEW HOURS AND THEN IMPROVE. DUE TO
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE STORMS...THIS WAS NOT
ADDED TO THE TAFS. ALSO EXPECTING TO SEE SOME MIST AT THE TAF
STATIONS AND VALLEY FOG IN THE VALLEYS AND NEAR AREAS THAT GET A LOT
OF PRECIPITATION TODAY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JJ

000
FXUS63 KJKL 211947
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
347 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.UPDATE...(REST OF THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

A SHORT TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE A PERIOD OF GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT...AND A PERIOD OF POOR MODEL AGREEMENT. THE FIRST FEW
DAYS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WERE HANDLED VERY WELL BY BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF MODELS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING
THE DAY ON THURSDAY...BEFORE EXITING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THE MODELS ALL AGREE THAT A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL MEAN COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER TO KICK OFF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. AFTER SATURDAY NIGHT...THINGS GET A BIT MURKY. THE
ECWMF MODEL IS MUCH WETTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS
MODEL...BOTH IN THE TIMING OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE ECMWF ACTUALLY
HAS PRECIPITATION AFFECTING EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE GFS...ON THE OTHER HAND...IS NOT MOVING PRECIP
INTO THE AREA UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. FROM THEN ON THE MODELS DO
AGREE FAIRLY WELL...BUT ONLY FOR THE LAST DAY OR SO OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THAT BEING SAID...LEANED A BIT MORE TOWARD THE USUALLY MORE
RELIABLE ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS FROM EARLY SUNDAY ONWARD. DID NOT DO
A WHOLE LOT OF MAJOR CHANGING TO THE MODEL DATA BASED ON THE AMOUNT
OF UNCERTAINTY. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS WERE INDICATING ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING PERIODS THURSDAY...SUNDAY...AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN
THE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS IT APPEARS A
COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FOR A FEW DAYS. FROM
SUNDAY ONWARD...THINGS WILL WARM UP A BIT MORE DURING EACH DAYTIME
PERIOD...BUT NOT FAR FROM NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THE AIR IS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AND THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER JUST
UPDATED THEIR OUTLOOK AND PUT EASTERN KENTUCKY IN AN AREA OF SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREAT IS FOR STRONG
WINDS...HOWEVER HAIL CAN NOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT AND WILL LIKELY SEE
SMALL HAIL IN THE AREA TODAY. WITH THE POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS IN
THE AREA...THE POSSIBILITY OF GUST FRONTS WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE AND COULD CREATE SOME STRONG LLWS. CONFIDENCE
IN THE TIMING OF CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IS NOT HIGH...AND WAS BASED ON
A COMBINATION OF THE NAM AND HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH MODEL.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN OCCURS...THERE MAY BE A TIME OF POST
FRONTAL MIST WHICH WOULD LAST A FEW HOURS AND THEN IMPROVE. DUE TO
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE STORMS...THIS WAS NOT
ADDED TO THE TAFS. ALSO EXPECTING TO SEE SOME MIST AT THE TAF
STATIONS AND VALLEY FOG IN THE VALLEYS AND NEAR AREAS THAT GET A LOT
OF PRECIPITATION TODAY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JJ

000
FXUS63 KJKL 211735
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
135 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THE AIR IS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AND THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER JUST
UPDATED THEIR OUTLOOK AND PUT EASTERN KENTUCKY IN AN AREA OF SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREAT IS FOR STRONG
WINDS...HOWEVER HAIL CAN NOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT AND WILL LIKELY SEE
SMALL HAIL IN THE AREA TODAY. WITH THE POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS IN
THE AREA...THE POSSIBILITY OF GUST FRONTS WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE AND COULD CREATE SOME UNEXPECTED STRONG
WINDS. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IS NOT
HIGH...AND WAS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF THE NAM AND HIGH RESOLUTION
RAPID REFRESH MODEL. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN OCCURS...THERE MAY BE
A TIME OF POST FRONTAL MIST WHICH WOULD LAST A FEW HOURS AND THEN
IMPROVE. DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE
STORMS...THIS WAS NOT ADDED TO THE TAFS. ALSO EXPECTING TO SEE SOME
MIST AT THE TAF STATIONS AND VALLEY FOG IN THE VALLEYS AND NEAR AREAS
THAT GET A LOT OF PRECIPITATION TODAY.

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1026 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE FORECASTING EXTREME INSTABILITY TODAY. THE
NAM BUFFER SOUNDING FOR 4 PM AT JACKSON IS CALLING FOR TOTAL TOTALS
OF 51 AND A LIFTED INDEX OF -7.6. THE CAPE IS FORECAST TO BE 3479
JOULES. THE WIND IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS THERE
IS VERY LITTLE SHEAR. THERE IS ALSO VERY LITTLE DRY AIR ALOFT. THE
MAIN ISSUE TODAY WILL BE A TRIGGER TO GET THE STORMS GOING. THERE IS
AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CURRENTLY BISECTING EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. BECAUSE IT IS SO EARLY IN THE DAY...THE LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE AND MOST LIKELY WILL NOT BE
FAVORABLE UNTIL THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVES INTO WEST VIRGINIA. IT
MAY FIRE UP NEAR THE WEST VIRGINIA BORDER AROUND 11 AM. WILL HAVE TO
WAIT AND SEE. CURRENTLY DO NOT HAVE A GOOD FEEL ON EXACTLY WHERE AND
WHEN THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE GOING TO INITIATE. USED THE OUTPUT OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL TO TRY AND TIME SOME IMPULSES THROUGH THE
AREA...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW UNTIL CONVECTIVE INITIATION
ACTUALLY OCCURS. WITH ALL THE CONVECTION THAT HAS OCCURRED OUT TO THE
WEST...THERE ARE BOUND TO BE SOME OLD BOUNDARIES THAT MOVE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...WITH THE VALLEY FOG THAT OCCURRED THIS
MORNING...SOME DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES MAY BE ABLE TO
GENERATE A STORM. ONCE THE STORMS ARE GENERATED...ANY OUTFLOWS THEY
PRODUCE SHOULD PROPAGATE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. USUALLY WITH THIS
TYPE OF SOUNDING OVER THE AREA...THE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCED WILL BE
PULSE TYPE STORMS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AND
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND 1 INCH HAIL. DUE TO THE LACK OF
WIND SHEAR AND LACK OF ANY STRONG BOUNDARIES...TORNADOES ARE VERY
UNLIKELY TODAY AND WOULD PROBABLY NEED SOME INTERSECTING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES TO EVEN HAVE A PRAYER OF FORMING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 759 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

GRIDS WERE FRESHENED BASED ON RECENT OBS AND TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND CONVECTION WORKING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL KY THAT
LIKELY WILL NOT COMPLETELY DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING EASTERN KY. THIS
LED TO SOME CHANGES IN POPS...GENERALLY TO RAISE THEM IN THE WEST
DURING THE AM...AND SLIGHTLY IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WORKING TOWARD THE MS VALLEY REGION
AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WORKING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SFC...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED
NEAR THE SD/MN BORDER WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND AND A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH AND THEN
SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. PREFRONTAL CONVECTION HAS
WEAKENED BUT EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO HE LOWER OH
VALLEY REGION...NORTH OF THE OB AND PAH AREA AND THEN CONTINUES
SOUTH GENERALLY ALONG THE MS RIVER AND THEN WEST INTO EAST CENTRAL
AR. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THIS CONVECTION HAS OUTFLOWED WITH AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM CENTRAL IN DOWN TO NEAR THE EVV VICINITY. LOCALLY
ACROSS EASTERN KY 11-3.9 IMAGERY INDICATES A BIT OF LOW CLOUDS NEAR
BLACK MOUNTAIN AND IN SW VA AND VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE BIG
SANDY REGION. SOME DEBRIS CIRRUS SI ALSO PASSING OVERHEAD.

EARLY THIS MORNING...VALLEY FOG WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AND BECOME DENSE
IN SOME AREAS BEFORE DAWN...DESPITE SOME PASSING CIRRUS. COVERAGE OF
THIS SHOULD BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE SOUTHEAST THAT
EXPERIENCED CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 24 HORUS. A PRE FIRST PERIOD
WILL BE USED TO COVER THIS.

THE 4Z HRRR AND 0Z NAM GENERALLY SEEM TO BRING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
FROM CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH THIS
MORNING AND INTO EASTERN KY IN THE AFTERNOON. ANY CONVECTION ALONG
WITH WILL PROBABLY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE. THE 0Z NAM AND
0Z GFS DIFFER CONSIDERABLY ON INSTABILITY FROM MIDDAY INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE 0Z NAM FORECASTS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF MIDLEVEL DRY
AIR AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT AS COMPARED TO THE 0Z GFS WHILE THE
GFS IS MORE TAME. THE 0Z NAM LIKELY MOISTENS UP THE BOUNDARY LAYER A
TAD TOO MUCH LEADING TO DEWPOINTS NEARING 70 AND RESULTING IN TOTAL
TOTALS OVER 50...CAPE OVER 50 AND LI OF -9C OR LOWER. REALITY WOULD
PROBABLY BE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN...MORE ON THE ORDER OF CAPE IN THE
2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE AND LI -4C TO -6C OR SO AND 21Z SREF HAS HIGH
PROBABILITIES OF CAPE GREATER THAN 2000 J/KG AND LI LESS THAN -4C.
THIS WOULD STILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME STRONGER STORMS AND POSSIBLY A
LOCALLY SEVERE STORM WITH HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY IF THERE WERE TO BE
ANY CELL MERGERS. A ONE OR TWO HOUR DIFFERENCE IN CU DEVELOPMENT AND
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL DETERMINE MAX T TODAY. HOWEVER...IT STILL
APPEARS THAT MAX T WILL BE CLOSE TO BREAKING THE RECORD FOR TODAY AT
JKL AND POSSIBLY COME CLOSE AT LOZ.

LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO LESS ACTIVITY AFTER 0Z AS THE
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT/MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE SHOULD FOCUS CONVECTION TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST FOR MUCH
OF TONIGHT. IF CLEARING TAKES PLACE...VALLEY FOG SHOULD DEVELOP AND
POSSIBLY BECOME DENSE...ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY CONVECTION OCCURS LATER
TODAY. ATTM...WE PLAN NOT MENTION DENSE FOG JUST PATCHY FOG TO AREAS
OF FOG.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE
AREA...THOUGH THE LOW LEVEL JET CORE WITH THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
GENERALLY TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST. SOME DEGREE OF DEBRIS CLOUDS
MAY WORK ACROSS THE AREA ON WED...BUT MODERATE 0Z MODELS AND 21Z
FORECAST MODERATE INSTABILITY AND MORE IN THE WAY OF SHEAR AS
COMPARED TO TODAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO STRENGTHENING OF CONVECTION AS
IT MOVES INTO EASTERN KY AND PROBABLY AN UPTICK IN COVERAGE AS WELL.
ONE OR MORE LINES OF STORMS...POSSIBLY STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE
SHOULD WORK ACROSS THE REGION. GUSTY WINDS WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH STORMS ON WED...THOUGH SOME SMALL TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL COULD OCCUR AS WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. LIKELY POPS
WERE CONTINUED FOR WEDNESDAY. ONCE AGAIN TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF DEBRIS
CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL DETERMINE MAX T ON WED...BUT
EASTERN LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE THIS OCCUR THE LATEST AND SHOULD AVERAGE
WARMER THAN MORE CENTRAL AND WESTERN LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BLOCKY UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH
DETAILS BECOME MORE MURKY BY THIS WEEKEND...WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT
WITH THE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES. AS SUCH...GENERALLY RELIED ON A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE.

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...KEEPING GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS THREATENING
EASTERN KENTUCKY. THERE HAS BEEN A TREND OF A QUICKER EXIT WITH THIS
FEATURE. INSTABILITY WILL WANE QUICKLY BY LATE IN THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...SO REMOVED THUNDER CHANCES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO CONCLUDE THE
WORK WEEK. THIS WEEKEND...THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER QUITE A BIT WITH
THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA. THE
ECMWF IS PRETTY TRANSIENT WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE...AND ALLOWS A WARM
FRONT TO MOVE IN QUICKLY BY EARLY SATURDAY. THIS BOUNDARY THEN STALLS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...WITH OCCASIONAL SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS TRAVERSING THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE GFS IS MUCH SLOWER
HERE...AND KEEPS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SHUNTED MORE TO THE NORTH.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...DID ALLOW FOR A RETURN OF SLIGHT TO CHANCE
POPS...ALTHOUGH NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE ECMWF.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH FRIDAY BEING THE COOLEST DAY...AS HIGHS WILL
RETREAT TO THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THE AIR IS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AND THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER JUST
UPDATED THEIR OUTLOOK AND PUT EASTERN KENTUCKY IN AN AREA OF SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREAT IS FOR STRONG
WINDS...HOWEVER HAIL CAN NOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT AND WILL LIKELY SEE
SMALL HAIL IN THE AREA TODAY. WITH THE POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS IN
THE AREA...THE POSSIBILITY OF GUST FRONTS WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE AND COULD CREATE SOME STRONG LLWS. CONFIDENCE
IN THE TIMING OF CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IS NOT HIGH...AND WAS BASED ON
A COMBINATION OF THE NAM AND HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH MODEL.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN OCCURS...THERE MAY BE A TIME OF POST
FRONTAL MIST WHICH WOULD LAST A FEW HOURS AND THEN IMPROVE. DUE TO
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE STORMS...THIS WAS NOT
ADDED TO THE TAFS. ALSO EXPECTING TO SEE SOME MIST AT THE TAF
STATIONS AND VALLEY FOG IN THE VALLEYS AND NEAR AREAS THAT GET A LOT
OF PRECIPITATION TODAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJ
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...JJ

000
FXUS63 KJKL 211426
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1026 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1026 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE FORECASTING EXTREME INSTABILITY TODAY. THE
NAM BUFFER SOUNDING FOR 4 PM AT JACKSON IS CALLING FOR TOTAL TOTALS
OF 51 AND A LIFTED INDEX OF -7.6. THE CAPE IS FORECAST TO BE 3479
JOULES. THE WIND IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS THERE
IS VERY LITTLE SHEAR. THERE IS ALSO VERY LITTLE DRY AIR ALOFT. THE
MAIN ISSUE TODAY WILL BE A TRIGGER TO GET THE STORMS GOING. THERE IS
AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CURRENTLY BISECTING EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. BECAUSE IT IS SO EARLY IN THE DAY...THE LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE AND MOST LIKELY WILL NOT BE
FAVORABLE UNTIL THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVES INTO WEST VIRGINIA. IT
MAY FIRE UP NEAR THE WEST VIRGINIA BORDER AROUND 11 AM. WILL HAVE TO
WAIT AND SEE. CURRENTLY DO NOT HAVE A GOOD FEEL ON EXACTLY WHERE AND
WHEN THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE GOING TO INITIATE. USED THE OUTPUT OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL TO TRY AND TIME SOME IMPULSES THROUGH THE
AREA...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW UNTIL CONVECTIVE INITIATION
ACTUALLY OCCURS. WITH ALL THE CONVECTION THAT HAS OCCURRED OUT TO THE
WEST...THERE ARE BOUND TO BE SOME OLD BOUNDARIES THAT MOVE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...WITH THE VALLEY FOG THAT OCCURRED THIS
MORNING...SOME DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES MAY BE ABLE TO
GENERATE A STORM. ONCE THE STORMS ARE GENERATED...ANY OUTFLOWS THEY
PRODUCE SHOULD PROPAGATE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. USUALLY WITH THIS
TYPE OF SOUNDING OVER THE AREA...THE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCED WILL BE
PULSE TYPE STORMS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AND
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND 1 INCH HAIL. DUE TO THE LACK OF
WIND SHEAR AND LACK OF ANY STRONG BOUNDARIES...TORNADOES ARE VERY
UNLIKELY TODAY AND WOULD PROBABLY NEED SOME INTERSECTING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES TO EVEN HAVE A PRAYER OF FORMING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 759 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

GRIDS WERE FRESHENED BASED ON RECENT OBS AND TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND CONVECTION WORKING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL KY THAT
LIKELY WILL NOT COMPLETELY DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING EASTERN KY. THIS
LED TO SOME CHANGES IN POPS...GENERALLY TO RAISE THEM IN THE WEST
DURING THE AM...AND SLIGHTLY IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WORKING TOWARD THE MS VALLEY REGION
AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WORKING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SFC...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED
NEAR THE SD/MN BORDER WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND AND A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH AND THEN
SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. PREFRONTAL CONVECTION HAS
WEAKENED BUT EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO HE LOWER OH
VALLEY REGION...NORTH OF THE OB AND PAH AREA AND THEN CONTINUES
SOUTH GENERALLY ALONG THE MS RIVER AND THEN WEST INTO EAST CENTRAL
AR. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THIS CONVECTION HAS OUTFLOWED WITH AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM CENTRAL IN DOWN TO NEAR THE EVV VICINITY. LOCALLY
ACROSS EASTERN KY 11-3.9 IMAGERY INDICATES A BIT OF LOW CLOUDS NEAR
BLACK MOUNTAIN AND IN SW VA AND VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE BIG
SANDY REGION. SOME DEBRIS CIRRUS SI ALSO PASSING OVERHEAD.

EARLY THIS MORNING...VALLEY FOG WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AND BECOME DENSE
IN SOME AREAS BEFORE DAWN...DESPITE SOME PASSING CIRRUS. COVERAGE OF
THIS SHOULD BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE SOUTHEAST THAT
EXPERIENCED CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 24 HORUS. A PRE FIRST PERIOD
WILL BE USED TO COVER THIS.

THE 4Z HRRR AND 0Z NAM GENERALLY SEEM TO BRING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
FROM CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH THIS
MORNING AND INTO EASTERN KY IN THE AFTERNOON. ANY CONVECTION ALONG
WITH WILL PROBABLY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE. THE 0Z NAM AND
0Z GFS DIFFER CONSIDERABLY ON INSTABILITY FROM MIDDAY INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE 0Z NAM FORECASTS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF MIDLEVEL DRY
AIR AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT AS COMPARED TO THE 0Z GFS WHILE THE
GFS IS MORE TAME. THE 0Z NAM LIKELY MOISTENS UP THE BOUNDARY LAYER A
TAD TOO MUCH LEADING TO DEWPOINTS NEARING 70 AND RESULTING IN TOTAL
TOTALS OVER 50...CAPE OVER 50 AND LI OF -9C OR LOWER. REALITY WOULD
PROBABLY BE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN...MORE ON THE ORDER OF CAPE IN THE
2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE AND LI -4C TO -6C OR SO AND 21Z SREF HAS HIGH
PROBABILITIES OF CAPE GREATER THAN 2000 J/KG AND LI LESS THAN -4C.
THIS WOULD STILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME STRONGER STORMS AND POSSIBLY A
LOCALLY SEVERE STORM WITH HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY IF THERE WERE TO BE
ANY CELL MERGERS. A ONE OR TWO HOUR DIFFERENCE IN CU DEVELOPMENT AND
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL DETERMINE MAX T TODAY. HOWEVER...IT STILL
APPEARS THAT MAX T WILL BE CLOSE TO BREAKING THE RECORD FOR TODAY AT
JKL AND POSSIBLY COME CLOSE AT LOZ.

LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO LESS ACTIVITY AFTER 0Z AS THE
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT/MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE SHOULD FOCUS CONVECTION TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST FOR MUCH
OF TONIGHT. IF CLEARING TAKES PLACE...VALLEY FOG SHOULD DEVELOP AND
POSSIBLY BECOME DENSE...ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY CONVECTION OCCURS LATER
TODAY. ATTM...WE PLAN NOT MENTION DENSE FOG JUST PATCHY FOG TO AREAS
OF FOG.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE
AREA...THOUGH THE LOW LEVEL JET CORE WITH THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
GENERALLY TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST. SOME DEGREE OF DEBRIS CLOUDS
MAY WORK ACROSS THE AREA ON WED...BUT MODERATE 0Z MODELS AND 21Z
FORECAST MODERATE INSTABILITY AND MORE IN THE WAY OF SHEAR AS
COMPARED TO TODAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO STRENGTHENING OF CONVECTION AS
IT MOVES INTO EASTERN KY AND PROBABLY AN UPTICK IN COVERAGE AS WELL.
ONE OR MORE LINES OF STORMS...POSSIBLY STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE
SHOULD WORK ACROSS THE REGION. GUSTY WINDS WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH STORMS ON WED...THOUGH SOME SMALL TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL COULD OCCUR AS WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. LIKELY POPS
WERE CONTINUED FOR WEDNESDAY. ONCE AGAIN TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF DEBRIS
CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL DETERMINE MAX T ON WED...BUT
EASTERN LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE THIS OCCUR THE LATEST AND SHOULD AVERAGE
WARMER THAN MORE CENTRAL AND WESTERN LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BLOCKY UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH
DETAILS BECOME MORE MURKY BY THIS WEEKEND...WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT
WITH THE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES. AS SUCH...GENERALLY RELIED ON A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE.

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...KEEPING GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS THREATENING
EASTERN KENTUCKY. THERE HAS BEEN A TREND OF A QUICKER EXIT WITH THIS
FEATURE. INSTABILITY WILL WANE QUICKLY BY LATE IN THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...SO REMOVED THUNDER CHANCES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO CONCLUDE THE
WORK WEEK. THIS WEEKEND...THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER QUITE A BIT WITH
THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA. THE
ECMWF IS PRETTY TRANSIENT WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE...AND ALLOWS A WARM
FRONT TO MOVE IN QUICKLY BY EARLY SATURDAY. THIS BOUNDARY THEN STALLS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...WITH OCCASIONAL SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS TRAVERSING THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE GFS IS MUCH SLOWER
HERE...AND KEEPS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SHUNTED MORE TO THE NORTH.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...DID ALLOW FOR A RETURN OF SLIGHT TO CHANCE
POPS...ALTHOUGH NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE ECMWF.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH FRIDAY BEING THE COOLEST DAY...AS HIGHS WILL
RETREAT TO THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 759 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

ANY LINGERING VALLEY FOG WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH 1330Z. AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY WILL WORK INTO EASTERN KY DURING THE FIRST TWO HOURS OF THE
PERIOD...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
AFFECT LOZ AND SME BY 15Z...AND POSSIBLY FURTHER EAST AT JKL AROUND
16Z. CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THROUGH THE PERIOD IS NOT
EXTREMELY HIGH...BUT CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING MUCH OF
THE PERIOD AND THUS VCTS AND CB WAS USED FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJ
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...JP

000
FXUS63 KJKL 211204 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
804 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 759 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

GRIDS WERE FRESHENED BASED ON RECENT OBS AND TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND CONVECTION WORKING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL KY THAT
LIKELY WILL NOT COMPLETELY DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING EASTERN KY. THIS
LED TO SOME CHANGES IN POPS...GENERALLY TO RAISE THEM IN THE WEST
DURING THE AM...AND SLIGHTLY IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WORKING TOWARD THE MS VALLEY REGION
AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WORKING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SFC...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED
NEAR THE SD/MN BORDER WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND AND A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH AND THEN
SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. PREFRONTAL CONVECTION HAS
WEAKENED BUT EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO HE LOWER OH
VALLEY REGION...NORTH OF THE OWB AND PAH AREA AND THEN CONTINUES
SOUTH GENERALLY ALONG THE MS RIVER AND THEN WEST INTO EAST CENTRAL
AR. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THIS CONVECTION HAS OUTFLOWED WITH AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM CENTRAL IN DOWN TO NEAR THE EVV VICINITY. LOCALLY
ACROSS EASTERN KY 11-3.9 IMAGERY INDICATES A BIT OF LOW CLOUDS NEAR
BLACK MOUNTAIN AND IN SW VA AND VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE BIG
SANDY REGION. SOME DEBRIS CIRRUS SI ALSO PASSING OVERHEAD.

EARLY THIS MORNING...VALLEY FOG WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AND BECOME DENSE
IN SOME AREAS BEFORE DAWN...DESPITE SOME PASSING CIRRUS. COVERAGE OF
THIS SHOULD BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE SOUTHEAST THAT
EXPERIENCED CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 24 HORUS. A PREFIRST PERIOD
WILL BE USED TO COVER THIS.

THE 4Z HRRR AND 0Z NAM GENERALLY SEEM TO BRING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
FROM CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH THIS
MORNING AND INTO EASTERN KY IN THE AFTERNOON. ANY CONVECTION ALONG
WITH WILL PROBABLY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE. THE 0Z NAM AND
0Z GFS DIFFER CONSIDERABLY ON INSTABILITY FROM MIDDAY INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE 0Z NAM FORECASTS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF MIDLEVEL DRY
AIR AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT AS COMPARED TO THE 0Z GFS WHILE THE
GFS IS MORE TAME. THE 0Z NAM LIKELY MOISTENS UP THE BOUNDARY LAYER A
TAD TOO MUCH LEADING TO DEWPOINTS NEARING 70 AND RESULTING IN TOTAL
TOTALS OVER 50...CAPE OVER 50 AND LI OF -9C OR LOWER. REALITY WOULD
PROBABLY BE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN...MORE ON THE ORDER OF CAPE IN THE
2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE AND LI -4C TO -6C OR SO AND 21Z SREF HAS HIGH
PROBABILITIES OF CAPE GREATER THAN 2000 J/KG AND LI LESS THAN -4C.
THIS WOULD STILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME STRONGER STORMS AND POSSIBLY A
LOCALLY SEVERE STORM WITH HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY IF THERE WERE TO BE
ANY CELL MERGERS. A ONE OR TWO HOUR DIFFERENCE IN CU DEVELOPMENT AND
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL DETERMINE MAX T TODAY. HOWEVER...IT STILL
APPEARS THAT MAX T WILL BE CLOSE TO BREAKING THE RECORD FOR TODAY AT
JKL AND POSSIBLY COME CLOSE AT LOZ.

LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO LESS ACTIVITY AFTER 0Z AS THE
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT/MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE SHOULD FOCUS CONVECTION TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST FOR MUCH
OF TONIGHT. IF CLEARING TAKES PLACE...VALLEY FOG SHOULD DEVELOP AND
POSSIBLY BECOME DENSE...ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY CONVECTION OCCURS LATER
TODAY. ATTM...WE PLAN NOT MENTION DENSE FOG JUST PATCHY FOG TO AREAS
OF FOG.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE
AREA...THOUGH THE LOW LEVEL JET CORE WITH THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
GENERALLY TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST. SOME DEGREE OF DEBRIS CLOUDS
MAY WORK ACROSS THE AREA ON WED...BUT MODERATE 0Z MODELS AND 21Z
FORECAST MODERATE INSTABILITY AND MORE IN THE WAY OF SHEAR AS
COMPARED TO TODAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO STRENGTHENING OF CONVECTION AS
IT MOVES INTO EASTERN KY AND PROBABLY AN UPTICK IN COVERAGE AS WELL.
ONE OR MORE LINES OF STORMS...POSSIBLY STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE
SHOULD WORK ACROSS THE REGION. GUSTY WINDS WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH STORMS ON WED...THOUGH SOME SMALL TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL COULD OCCUR AS WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. LIKELY POPS
WERE CONTINUED FOR WEDNESDAY. ONCE AGAIN TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF DEBRIS
CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL DETERMINE MAX T ON WED...BUT
EASTERN LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE THIS OCCUR THE LATEST AND SHOULD AVERAGE
WARMER THAN MORE CENTRAL AND WESTERN LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BLOCKY UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH
DETAILS BECOME MORE MURKY BY THIS WEEKEND...WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT
WITH THE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES. AS SUCH...GENERALLY RELIED ON A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE.

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...KEEPING GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS THREATENING
EASTERN KENTUCKY. THERE HAS BEEN A TREND OF A QUICKER EXIT WITH THIS
FEATURE. INSTABILITY WILL WANE QUICKLY BY LATE IN THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...SO REMOVED THUNDER CHANCES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO CONCLUDE THE
WORK WEEK. THIS WEEKEND...THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER QUITE A BIT WITH
THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA. THE
ECMWF IS PRETTY TRANSIENT WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE...AND ALLOWS A WARM
FRONT TO MOVE IN QUICKLY BY EARLY SATURDAY. THIS BOUNDARY THEN STALLS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...WITH OCCASIONAL SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS TRAVERSING THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE GFS IS MUCH SLOWER
HERE...AND KEEPS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SHUNTED MORE TO THE NORTH.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...DID ALLOW FOR A RETURN OF SLIGHT TO CHANCE
POPS...ALTHOUGH NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE ECMWF.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH FRIDAY BEING THE COOLEST DAY...AS HIGHS WILL
RETREAT TO THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 759 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

ANY LINGERING VALLEY FOG WILL DISSIAPTE THROUGH 1330Z. AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY WILL WORK INTO EASTERN KY DURING THE FIRST TWO HOURS OF THE
PERIOD...WITH ISOALTED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
AFFECT LOZ AND SME BY 15Z...AND POSSIBLY FURTHER EAST AT JKL AROUND
16Z. CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THROUGH THE PERIOD IS NOT
EXTREMELY HIGH...BUT CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING MUCH OF
THE PERIOD AND THUS VCTS AND CB WAS USED FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...JP