Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS63 KJKL 021734
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1234 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1021 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

ALL PRECIP HAS EXITED KY AT THIS TIME...SO LET ANY MORNING PRECIP
WORDING GO IN THE ZFP FORECAST. OTHERWISE...FORECAST SEEMS TO BE
WELL ON TRACK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD KEEPING GENERALLY
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE DAY AND A DECENT WARM UP TO AROUND
40 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
DATA FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS TO MAKE SURE THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS WERE WELL REFLECTED IN THE NEAR TERM FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

UPDATED THE HOURLY GRIDS THROUGH 14Z THIS MORNING TO ADD IN SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE. THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN A BIT SLOWER TO EXIT
THE AREA THAN THE FORECAST HAD BEEN CALLING FOR...SO THE UPDATE
WAS NECESSARY. ALSO...THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW REPORTS OF A LIGHT
GLAZE OF ICE ON CARS AND OTHER ELEVATED SURFACES AROUND THE
AREA...INCLUDING SOME AREA ROADS. SLICK ROADS WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY FOR AREAS THE RECEIVED RAIN OVERNIGHT AND THAT ARE
BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH BY 9 OR 10 AM
FOR ANY SLICKS ON AREAS TO HAVE MELTED AND CLEARED UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG AN EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FAIRLY SLOWLY...SO THE RAIN
ACCOMPANYING IT IS FORECAST TO LAST THROUGH 11 OR 12Z THIS
MORNING. AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE BE AN ISSUE THROUGH EARLY
THIS MORNING AS WELL. THE PRECIP AND FOG SHOULD BE GONE BY BETWEEN
12 AND 13Z. ONCE THE FRONT HAS MOVED OFF WELL TO OUR
EAST...EASTERN KENTUCKY SHOULD REMAIN PRECIPITATION THROUGH LATE
THIS EVENING. OUR NEXT ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WEAK IMPULSE
THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...PHASES WITH
A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKYS AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY MORPH INTO A WARM
FRONT AS IT BEGINS TO MERGE WITH THE NORTHERN SYSTEM. AS THIS
BOUNDARY MOVES NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY...LIGHT
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT ALONG IT. AT THE ONSET OF THE
EVENT...WARM MOIST AIR ALOFT WILL PUSH ACROSS AND NORTH OF THE
FRONT...OVERRIDING COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE. FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET...AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE
RAIN FALLS INTO THE COLD AIR BELOW. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE WARM
FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA QUICKLY ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY
SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS FROM OCCURRING. THE WARM FRONT IS
THEN PROGGED TO STALL JUST TO OUR NORTH. AFTER THIS HAPPENS...A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND BEGIN
PUSHING THE BOUNDARY EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW COLD AIR FROM THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TO ALSO BEGIN PUSHING
EAST...TRANSFORMING THE BOUNDARY INTO A POTENT COLD FRONT.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
EAST ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THE RAIN COULD BE
HEAVY AT TIMES AND COULD LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS ACROSS THE
AREA. AREAS PARTICULARLY PRONE TO FLOODING WILL BE THE
KENTUCKY...CUMBERLAND...AND BIG SANDY RIVER BASINS...WHOSE
HEADWATER AREAS STILL HAVE A GOOD DEAL OF SNOW COVER IN PLACE.
ENOUGH SNOW HAS ALREADY MELTED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TO CAUSE
THE GROUND TO BE COMPLETELY SATURATED. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
THAT OCCURS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL RUNOFF ALMOST IMMEDIATELY
INTO AREA CREEKS...STREAMS...AND RIVERS. THIS SITUATION WILL NEED
TO MONITORED CLOSELY.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL START OUT QUITE A BIT
BELOW NORMAL...WITH TODAYS HIGHS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA. TONIGHTS TEMPERATURES WILL NOT COOL OFF
NEARLY AS MUCH AS WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS...AS WINDS
WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT THE SOUTHEAST...LEADING TO DOWNSLOPE WARMING
IN OUR EAST AND ALLOWING FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE.
THE MAIN PUSH OF WARM AIR IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE DURING THE DAY
ON TUESDAY...AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND BEGIN ADVECTING WARM
AIR DIRECTLY OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE REGION. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY COULD EASILY MAX OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AREA WIDE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
RATHER ACTIVE AND HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN IN PLACE. UNDERWAY AND
ALREADY IMPACTING THE OH VALLEY AT THIS TIME FRAME IS AN
ENLONGATED LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WHERE A
CLOSED LOW LIES ENTRENCHED OVER THE BAJA REGION. DURING THIS
TIME...A STRONG AN ACTIVE JET CORE EXTENDS FROM OVER THE SOUTHWEST
TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS WITH THE JET MAX
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES OF 140 TO 160 KNOTS. HEADING INTO THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY...THE MENTIONED LOW OVER THE BAJA EJECTS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE ENLONGATED TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THE DEVELOPED LIFT AND DYNAMICS OVER THE MS VALLEY
AND INTO THE OH VALLEY IS QUITE SUBSTANTIAL AT THIS TIME AS THE
MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW TAKE A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY.
THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR PRETTY EFFICIENT RAINFALL AT ONSET OF THE
FIRST SYSTEM INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
AND THEN ANOTHER POSSIBLE WINTER STORM LIKE EVENT INTO MID WEEK.
THIS UNFORTUNATELY EXACERBATES THE CONCERN FOR FLOODING IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE SNOWMELT AND POSSIBLY EVEN MORE SNOW ON TOP
OF THAT.

CONCERNING THE LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF
SHORE IN THE ATLANTIC NUDGING INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE MID WEEK WILL KEEP A NEARLY STALLED
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTATION OF A SURPRISINGLY STRONG
GRADIENT SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERAL WAVES IN
THE MID LEVELS ALONG THIS FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND
THROUGH THURSDAY WILL KEEP A SIGNIFICANT QPF OVER THE AREA. THIS
WILL ONCE AGAIN KEEP FLOODING A THREAT WITH THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP
EXPECTED. AN ADDITIONAL SHOT OF MOISTURE CONTINUES AS THE LAST
WAVE RIDES NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT AND THIS FEATURE FINALLY
KICKS THE SURFACE LOW OUT TO SEA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. IT IS WORTH
MENTIONING...THAT THIS PATTERN DOES NOT HAPPEN OFTEN...ESPECIALLY
POSTFRONTAL HEAVY SNOWFALL DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE WINTER
SEASON. HOWEVER...THERE DOES SEEM TO BE SOME CONSISTENCY IN THE
MODELS AND NOW THE NAM AND SREF AS THIS EVENT HAS COME INTO THAT
TIME PERIOD. ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOWN FROM WWD PRODUCTS ARE INDICATING
MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF SNOW AND HAVE AT LEAST COLLABORATED WITH
WWD TO COME UP WITH SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER SNOW VALUES AND SNOWFALL
FORECASTS ARE IN LINE WITH THOSE TRENDS OF COLLABORATION. ANOTHER
HELPFUL INDICATOR OF AT LEAST THE BLOCKING NEEDED FOR THAT
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTATION OF THE NEARLY STALLED FRONT IS
THE ENSEMBLE MEAN OF THE NAO. A SHARP DROP IN VALUES FROM THE NAO
PRODUCT ARE OCCURRING DURING THE TIME OF THIS SYSTEMS SET UP.
WHILE NOT NECESSARILY A SHARP DROP INTO NEGATIVE VALUES...THIS
INDICATION WOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME BLOCKING OVER THE ATLANTIC AND
IS ENOUGH TO HAVE SOME CONFIDENCE IN THE QPF AND SNOWFALL VALUES
DISPLAYED IN THE FORECAST. IT IS VERY POSSIBLE TO BE GOING
STRAIGHT FROM A FLOOD CONCERN TO A SNOWFALL CONCERN IN A MATTER OF
24 HOURS.

AS FOR SNOW RATIOS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THERE IS
SOME CONCERN AT ONSET OF THIS SYSTEM THAT SOME WARM AIR ALOFT MAY
CREATE SOME FREEZING PRECIP WHICH WOULD LOWER SNOW TOTALS A BIT.
GIVEN ALL THIS...THE GRADIENT MOVING THROUGH WOULD ENSURE COLD
ENOUGH SURFACE TEMPS AND THEREFORE HAVE GONE WITH A STRONG MENTION
IN THE HWO. QPF VALUES WILL GO FROM 2 TO 2.50 INCHES AND SNOWFALL
IN THE 6 TO 8 INCH RANGE.

THE PATTERN GOES QUITE AFTER THURSDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING IN AND A NOTICEABLE LACK OF ARCTIC AIR THAT HAS USUALLY
BEEN FOLLOWING THESE SYSTEMS THIS WINTER...THOUGH STILL BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS FOR FRIDAY. SATURDAY HIGHS FINALLY GET BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL. BY SUNDAY...ANOTHER WAVE DROPPING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ASSISTS IN SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT AND THIS FEATURE TRACK NORTH
BRINGING ADDITIONAL POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER TO FAR SOUTHEASTERN
KENTUCKY. OBVIOUSLY...THIS SYSTEM IS WAY TOO FAR OUT TO PIN DOWN
WINTER PRECIP IF ANY. BUT IT DOES CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT AN ACTIVE
AND WET PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

A BRIEF AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS OVER
EASTERN KY TODAY...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. AS WE
HEAD INTO TONIGHT...THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN EXITING
TO OUR EAST...AND A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST...WITH
WINDS BECOMING GENERALLY SOUTHERLY THOUGH STILL LIGHT. AS THIS
OCCURS...EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO THICKEN AND QUICKLY LOWER TO MVFR
BETWEEN 8Z AND 12Z FROM WEST TO EAST. RAIN WILL ALSO QUICKLY MOVE
IN WITH THE CLOUDS...WITH MOST TAF SITES GENERALLY SEEING PRECIP
BETWEEN 9 AND 10Z. A STRONG WARM NOSE JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE
CONTINUES THE INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN AT
ONSET...QUICKLY CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN AS TEMPERATURES RISE
ABOVE FREEZING AFTER 12Z. UNFORTUNATELY...MODELS ARE POINTING AT
CIGS AND VIS CONTINUING TO LOWER TO LIFR CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW AS RAIN PERSISTS THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JMW





000
FXUS63 KJKL 021734
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1234 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1021 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

ALL PRECIP HAS EXITED KY AT THIS TIME...SO LET ANY MORNING PRECIP
WORDING GO IN THE ZFP FORECAST. OTHERWISE...FORECAST SEEMS TO BE
WELL ON TRACK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD KEEPING GENERALLY
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE DAY AND A DECENT WARM UP TO AROUND
40 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
DATA FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS TO MAKE SURE THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS WERE WELL REFLECTED IN THE NEAR TERM FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

UPDATED THE HOURLY GRIDS THROUGH 14Z THIS MORNING TO ADD IN SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE. THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN A BIT SLOWER TO EXIT
THE AREA THAN THE FORECAST HAD BEEN CALLING FOR...SO THE UPDATE
WAS NECESSARY. ALSO...THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW REPORTS OF A LIGHT
GLAZE OF ICE ON CARS AND OTHER ELEVATED SURFACES AROUND THE
AREA...INCLUDING SOME AREA ROADS. SLICK ROADS WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY FOR AREAS THE RECEIVED RAIN OVERNIGHT AND THAT ARE
BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH BY 9 OR 10 AM
FOR ANY SLICKS ON AREAS TO HAVE MELTED AND CLEARED UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG AN EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FAIRLY SLOWLY...SO THE RAIN
ACCOMPANYING IT IS FORECAST TO LAST THROUGH 11 OR 12Z THIS
MORNING. AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE BE AN ISSUE THROUGH EARLY
THIS MORNING AS WELL. THE PRECIP AND FOG SHOULD BE GONE BY BETWEEN
12 AND 13Z. ONCE THE FRONT HAS MOVED OFF WELL TO OUR
EAST...EASTERN KENTUCKY SHOULD REMAIN PRECIPITATION THROUGH LATE
THIS EVENING. OUR NEXT ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WEAK IMPULSE
THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...PHASES WITH
A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKYS AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY MORPH INTO A WARM
FRONT AS IT BEGINS TO MERGE WITH THE NORTHERN SYSTEM. AS THIS
BOUNDARY MOVES NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY...LIGHT
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT ALONG IT. AT THE ONSET OF THE
EVENT...WARM MOIST AIR ALOFT WILL PUSH ACROSS AND NORTH OF THE
FRONT...OVERRIDING COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE. FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET...AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE
RAIN FALLS INTO THE COLD AIR BELOW. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE WARM
FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA QUICKLY ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY
SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS FROM OCCURRING. THE WARM FRONT IS
THEN PROGGED TO STALL JUST TO OUR NORTH. AFTER THIS HAPPENS...A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND BEGIN
PUSHING THE BOUNDARY EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW COLD AIR FROM THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TO ALSO BEGIN PUSHING
EAST...TRANSFORMING THE BOUNDARY INTO A POTENT COLD FRONT.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
EAST ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THE RAIN COULD BE
HEAVY AT TIMES AND COULD LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS ACROSS THE
AREA. AREAS PARTICULARLY PRONE TO FLOODING WILL BE THE
KENTUCKY...CUMBERLAND...AND BIG SANDY RIVER BASINS...WHOSE
HEADWATER AREAS STILL HAVE A GOOD DEAL OF SNOW COVER IN PLACE.
ENOUGH SNOW HAS ALREADY MELTED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TO CAUSE
THE GROUND TO BE COMPLETELY SATURATED. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
THAT OCCURS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL RUNOFF ALMOST IMMEDIATELY
INTO AREA CREEKS...STREAMS...AND RIVERS. THIS SITUATION WILL NEED
TO MONITORED CLOSELY.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL START OUT QUITE A BIT
BELOW NORMAL...WITH TODAYS HIGHS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA. TONIGHTS TEMPERATURES WILL NOT COOL OFF
NEARLY AS MUCH AS WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS...AS WINDS
WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT THE SOUTHEAST...LEADING TO DOWNSLOPE WARMING
IN OUR EAST AND ALLOWING FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE.
THE MAIN PUSH OF WARM AIR IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE DURING THE DAY
ON TUESDAY...AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND BEGIN ADVECTING WARM
AIR DIRECTLY OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE REGION. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY COULD EASILY MAX OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AREA WIDE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
RATHER ACTIVE AND HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN IN PLACE. UNDERWAY AND
ALREADY IMPACTING THE OH VALLEY AT THIS TIME FRAME IS AN
ENLONGATED LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WHERE A
CLOSED LOW LIES ENTRENCHED OVER THE BAJA REGION. DURING THIS
TIME...A STRONG AN ACTIVE JET CORE EXTENDS FROM OVER THE SOUTHWEST
TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS WITH THE JET MAX
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES OF 140 TO 160 KNOTS. HEADING INTO THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY...THE MENTIONED LOW OVER THE BAJA EJECTS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE ENLONGATED TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THE DEVELOPED LIFT AND DYNAMICS OVER THE MS VALLEY
AND INTO THE OH VALLEY IS QUITE SUBSTANTIAL AT THIS TIME AS THE
MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW TAKE A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY.
THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR PRETTY EFFICIENT RAINFALL AT ONSET OF THE
FIRST SYSTEM INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
AND THEN ANOTHER POSSIBLE WINTER STORM LIKE EVENT INTO MID WEEK.
THIS UNFORTUNATELY EXACERBATES THE CONCERN FOR FLOODING IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE SNOWMELT AND POSSIBLY EVEN MORE SNOW ON TOP
OF THAT.

CONCERNING THE LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF
SHORE IN THE ATLANTIC NUDGING INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE MID WEEK WILL KEEP A NEARLY STALLED
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTATION OF A SURPRISINGLY STRONG
GRADIENT SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERAL WAVES IN
THE MID LEVELS ALONG THIS FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND
THROUGH THURSDAY WILL KEEP A SIGNIFICANT QPF OVER THE AREA. THIS
WILL ONCE AGAIN KEEP FLOODING A THREAT WITH THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP
EXPECTED. AN ADDITIONAL SHOT OF MOISTURE CONTINUES AS THE LAST
WAVE RIDES NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT AND THIS FEATURE FINALLY
KICKS THE SURFACE LOW OUT TO SEA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. IT IS WORTH
MENTIONING...THAT THIS PATTERN DOES NOT HAPPEN OFTEN...ESPECIALLY
POSTFRONTAL HEAVY SNOWFALL DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE WINTER
SEASON. HOWEVER...THERE DOES SEEM TO BE SOME CONSISTENCY IN THE
MODELS AND NOW THE NAM AND SREF AS THIS EVENT HAS COME INTO THAT
TIME PERIOD. ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOWN FROM WWD PRODUCTS ARE INDICATING
MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF SNOW AND HAVE AT LEAST COLLABORATED WITH
WWD TO COME UP WITH SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER SNOW VALUES AND SNOWFALL
FORECASTS ARE IN LINE WITH THOSE TRENDS OF COLLABORATION. ANOTHER
HELPFUL INDICATOR OF AT LEAST THE BLOCKING NEEDED FOR THAT
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTATION OF THE NEARLY STALLED FRONT IS
THE ENSEMBLE MEAN OF THE NAO. A SHARP DROP IN VALUES FROM THE NAO
PRODUCT ARE OCCURRING DURING THE TIME OF THIS SYSTEMS SET UP.
WHILE NOT NECESSARILY A SHARP DROP INTO NEGATIVE VALUES...THIS
INDICATION WOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME BLOCKING OVER THE ATLANTIC AND
IS ENOUGH TO HAVE SOME CONFIDENCE IN THE QPF AND SNOWFALL VALUES
DISPLAYED IN THE FORECAST. IT IS VERY POSSIBLE TO BE GOING
STRAIGHT FROM A FLOOD CONCERN TO A SNOWFALL CONCERN IN A MATTER OF
24 HOURS.

AS FOR SNOW RATIOS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THERE IS
SOME CONCERN AT ONSET OF THIS SYSTEM THAT SOME WARM AIR ALOFT MAY
CREATE SOME FREEZING PRECIP WHICH WOULD LOWER SNOW TOTALS A BIT.
GIVEN ALL THIS...THE GRADIENT MOVING THROUGH WOULD ENSURE COLD
ENOUGH SURFACE TEMPS AND THEREFORE HAVE GONE WITH A STRONG MENTION
IN THE HWO. QPF VALUES WILL GO FROM 2 TO 2.50 INCHES AND SNOWFALL
IN THE 6 TO 8 INCH RANGE.

THE PATTERN GOES QUITE AFTER THURSDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING IN AND A NOTICEABLE LACK OF ARCTIC AIR THAT HAS USUALLY
BEEN FOLLOWING THESE SYSTEMS THIS WINTER...THOUGH STILL BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS FOR FRIDAY. SATURDAY HIGHS FINALLY GET BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL. BY SUNDAY...ANOTHER WAVE DROPPING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ASSISTS IN SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT AND THIS FEATURE TRACK NORTH
BRINGING ADDITIONAL POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER TO FAR SOUTHEASTERN
KENTUCKY. OBVIOUSLY...THIS SYSTEM IS WAY TOO FAR OUT TO PIN DOWN
WINTER PRECIP IF ANY. BUT IT DOES CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT AN ACTIVE
AND WET PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

A BRIEF AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS OVER
EASTERN KY TODAY...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. AS WE
HEAD INTO TONIGHT...THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN EXITING
TO OUR EAST...AND A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST...WITH
WINDS BECOMING GENERALLY SOUTHERLY THOUGH STILL LIGHT. AS THIS
OCCURS...EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO THICKEN AND QUICKLY LOWER TO MVFR
BETWEEN 8Z AND 12Z FROM WEST TO EAST. RAIN WILL ALSO QUICKLY MOVE
IN WITH THE CLOUDS...WITH MOST TAF SITES GENERALLY SEEING PRECIP
BETWEEN 9 AND 10Z. A STRONG WARM NOSE JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE
CONTINUES THE INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN AT
ONSET...QUICKLY CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN AS TEMPERATURES RISE
ABOVE FREEZING AFTER 12Z. UNFORTUNATELY...MODELS ARE POINTING AT
CIGS AND VIS CONTINUING TO LOWER TO LIFR CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW AS RAIN PERSISTS THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JMW




000
FXUS63 KJKL 021734
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1234 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1021 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

ALL PRECIP HAS EXITED KY AT THIS TIME...SO LET ANY MORNING PRECIP
WORDING GO IN THE ZFP FORECAST. OTHERWISE...FORECAST SEEMS TO BE
WELL ON TRACK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD KEEPING GENERALLY
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE DAY AND A DECENT WARM UP TO AROUND
40 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
DATA FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS TO MAKE SURE THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS WERE WELL REFLECTED IN THE NEAR TERM FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

UPDATED THE HOURLY GRIDS THROUGH 14Z THIS MORNING TO ADD IN SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE. THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN A BIT SLOWER TO EXIT
THE AREA THAN THE FORECAST HAD BEEN CALLING FOR...SO THE UPDATE
WAS NECESSARY. ALSO...THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW REPORTS OF A LIGHT
GLAZE OF ICE ON CARS AND OTHER ELEVATED SURFACES AROUND THE
AREA...INCLUDING SOME AREA ROADS. SLICK ROADS WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY FOR AREAS THE RECEIVED RAIN OVERNIGHT AND THAT ARE
BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH BY 9 OR 10 AM
FOR ANY SLICKS ON AREAS TO HAVE MELTED AND CLEARED UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG AN EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FAIRLY SLOWLY...SO THE RAIN
ACCOMPANYING IT IS FORECAST TO LAST THROUGH 11 OR 12Z THIS
MORNING. AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE BE AN ISSUE THROUGH EARLY
THIS MORNING AS WELL. THE PRECIP AND FOG SHOULD BE GONE BY BETWEEN
12 AND 13Z. ONCE THE FRONT HAS MOVED OFF WELL TO OUR
EAST...EASTERN KENTUCKY SHOULD REMAIN PRECIPITATION THROUGH LATE
THIS EVENING. OUR NEXT ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WEAK IMPULSE
THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...PHASES WITH
A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKYS AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY MORPH INTO A WARM
FRONT AS IT BEGINS TO MERGE WITH THE NORTHERN SYSTEM. AS THIS
BOUNDARY MOVES NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY...LIGHT
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT ALONG IT. AT THE ONSET OF THE
EVENT...WARM MOIST AIR ALOFT WILL PUSH ACROSS AND NORTH OF THE
FRONT...OVERRIDING COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE. FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET...AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE
RAIN FALLS INTO THE COLD AIR BELOW. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE WARM
FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA QUICKLY ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY
SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS FROM OCCURRING. THE WARM FRONT IS
THEN PROGGED TO STALL JUST TO OUR NORTH. AFTER THIS HAPPENS...A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND BEGIN
PUSHING THE BOUNDARY EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW COLD AIR FROM THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TO ALSO BEGIN PUSHING
EAST...TRANSFORMING THE BOUNDARY INTO A POTENT COLD FRONT.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
EAST ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THE RAIN COULD BE
HEAVY AT TIMES AND COULD LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS ACROSS THE
AREA. AREAS PARTICULARLY PRONE TO FLOODING WILL BE THE
KENTUCKY...CUMBERLAND...AND BIG SANDY RIVER BASINS...WHOSE
HEADWATER AREAS STILL HAVE A GOOD DEAL OF SNOW COVER IN PLACE.
ENOUGH SNOW HAS ALREADY MELTED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TO CAUSE
THE GROUND TO BE COMPLETELY SATURATED. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
THAT OCCURS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL RUNOFF ALMOST IMMEDIATELY
INTO AREA CREEKS...STREAMS...AND RIVERS. THIS SITUATION WILL NEED
TO MONITORED CLOSELY.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL START OUT QUITE A BIT
BELOW NORMAL...WITH TODAYS HIGHS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA. TONIGHTS TEMPERATURES WILL NOT COOL OFF
NEARLY AS MUCH AS WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS...AS WINDS
WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT THE SOUTHEAST...LEADING TO DOWNSLOPE WARMING
IN OUR EAST AND ALLOWING FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE.
THE MAIN PUSH OF WARM AIR IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE DURING THE DAY
ON TUESDAY...AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND BEGIN ADVECTING WARM
AIR DIRECTLY OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE REGION. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY COULD EASILY MAX OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AREA WIDE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
RATHER ACTIVE AND HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN IN PLACE. UNDERWAY AND
ALREADY IMPACTING THE OH VALLEY AT THIS TIME FRAME IS AN
ENLONGATED LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WHERE A
CLOSED LOW LIES ENTRENCHED OVER THE BAJA REGION. DURING THIS
TIME...A STRONG AN ACTIVE JET CORE EXTENDS FROM OVER THE SOUTHWEST
TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS WITH THE JET MAX
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES OF 140 TO 160 KNOTS. HEADING INTO THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY...THE MENTIONED LOW OVER THE BAJA EJECTS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE ENLONGATED TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THE DEVELOPED LIFT AND DYNAMICS OVER THE MS VALLEY
AND INTO THE OH VALLEY IS QUITE SUBSTANTIAL AT THIS TIME AS THE
MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW TAKE A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY.
THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR PRETTY EFFICIENT RAINFALL AT ONSET OF THE
FIRST SYSTEM INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
AND THEN ANOTHER POSSIBLE WINTER STORM LIKE EVENT INTO MID WEEK.
THIS UNFORTUNATELY EXACERBATES THE CONCERN FOR FLOODING IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE SNOWMELT AND POSSIBLY EVEN MORE SNOW ON TOP
OF THAT.

CONCERNING THE LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF
SHORE IN THE ATLANTIC NUDGING INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE MID WEEK WILL KEEP A NEARLY STALLED
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTATION OF A SURPRISINGLY STRONG
GRADIENT SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERAL WAVES IN
THE MID LEVELS ALONG THIS FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND
THROUGH THURSDAY WILL KEEP A SIGNIFICANT QPF OVER THE AREA. THIS
WILL ONCE AGAIN KEEP FLOODING A THREAT WITH THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP
EXPECTED. AN ADDITIONAL SHOT OF MOISTURE CONTINUES AS THE LAST
WAVE RIDES NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT AND THIS FEATURE FINALLY
KICKS THE SURFACE LOW OUT TO SEA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. IT IS WORTH
MENTIONING...THAT THIS PATTERN DOES NOT HAPPEN OFTEN...ESPECIALLY
POSTFRONTAL HEAVY SNOWFALL DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE WINTER
SEASON. HOWEVER...THERE DOES SEEM TO BE SOME CONSISTENCY IN THE
MODELS AND NOW THE NAM AND SREF AS THIS EVENT HAS COME INTO THAT
TIME PERIOD. ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOWN FROM WWD PRODUCTS ARE INDICATING
MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF SNOW AND HAVE AT LEAST COLLABORATED WITH
WWD TO COME UP WITH SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER SNOW VALUES AND SNOWFALL
FORECASTS ARE IN LINE WITH THOSE TRENDS OF COLLABORATION. ANOTHER
HELPFUL INDICATOR OF AT LEAST THE BLOCKING NEEDED FOR THAT
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTATION OF THE NEARLY STALLED FRONT IS
THE ENSEMBLE MEAN OF THE NAO. A SHARP DROP IN VALUES FROM THE NAO
PRODUCT ARE OCCURRING DURING THE TIME OF THIS SYSTEMS SET UP.
WHILE NOT NECESSARILY A SHARP DROP INTO NEGATIVE VALUES...THIS
INDICATION WOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME BLOCKING OVER THE ATLANTIC AND
IS ENOUGH TO HAVE SOME CONFIDENCE IN THE QPF AND SNOWFALL VALUES
DISPLAYED IN THE FORECAST. IT IS VERY POSSIBLE TO BE GOING
STRAIGHT FROM A FLOOD CONCERN TO A SNOWFALL CONCERN IN A MATTER OF
24 HOURS.

AS FOR SNOW RATIOS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THERE IS
SOME CONCERN AT ONSET OF THIS SYSTEM THAT SOME WARM AIR ALOFT MAY
CREATE SOME FREEZING PRECIP WHICH WOULD LOWER SNOW TOTALS A BIT.
GIVEN ALL THIS...THE GRADIENT MOVING THROUGH WOULD ENSURE COLD
ENOUGH SURFACE TEMPS AND THEREFORE HAVE GONE WITH A STRONG MENTION
IN THE HWO. QPF VALUES WILL GO FROM 2 TO 2.50 INCHES AND SNOWFALL
IN THE 6 TO 8 INCH RANGE.

THE PATTERN GOES QUITE AFTER THURSDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING IN AND A NOTICEABLE LACK OF ARCTIC AIR THAT HAS USUALLY
BEEN FOLLOWING THESE SYSTEMS THIS WINTER...THOUGH STILL BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS FOR FRIDAY. SATURDAY HIGHS FINALLY GET BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL. BY SUNDAY...ANOTHER WAVE DROPPING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ASSISTS IN SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT AND THIS FEATURE TRACK NORTH
BRINGING ADDITIONAL POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER TO FAR SOUTHEASTERN
KENTUCKY. OBVIOUSLY...THIS SYSTEM IS WAY TOO FAR OUT TO PIN DOWN
WINTER PRECIP IF ANY. BUT IT DOES CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT AN ACTIVE
AND WET PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

A BRIEF AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS OVER
EASTERN KY TODAY...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. AS WE
HEAD INTO TONIGHT...THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN EXITING
TO OUR EAST...AND A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST...WITH
WINDS BECOMING GENERALLY SOUTHERLY THOUGH STILL LIGHT. AS THIS
OCCURS...EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO THICKEN AND QUICKLY LOWER TO MVFR
BETWEEN 8Z AND 12Z FROM WEST TO EAST. RAIN WILL ALSO QUICKLY MOVE
IN WITH THE CLOUDS...WITH MOST TAF SITES GENERALLY SEEING PRECIP
BETWEEN 9 AND 10Z. A STRONG WARM NOSE JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE
CONTINUES THE INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN AT
ONSET...QUICKLY CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN AS TEMPERATURES RISE
ABOVE FREEZING AFTER 12Z. UNFORTUNATELY...MODELS ARE POINTING AT
CIGS AND VIS CONTINUING TO LOWER TO LIFR CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW AS RAIN PERSISTS THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JMW




000
FXUS63 KJKL 021734
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1234 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1021 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

ALL PRECIP HAS EXITED KY AT THIS TIME...SO LET ANY MORNING PRECIP
WORDING GO IN THE ZFP FORECAST. OTHERWISE...FORECAST SEEMS TO BE
WELL ON TRACK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD KEEPING GENERALLY
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE DAY AND A DECENT WARM UP TO AROUND
40 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
DATA FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS TO MAKE SURE THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS WERE WELL REFLECTED IN THE NEAR TERM FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

UPDATED THE HOURLY GRIDS THROUGH 14Z THIS MORNING TO ADD IN SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE. THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN A BIT SLOWER TO EXIT
THE AREA THAN THE FORECAST HAD BEEN CALLING FOR...SO THE UPDATE
WAS NECESSARY. ALSO...THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW REPORTS OF A LIGHT
GLAZE OF ICE ON CARS AND OTHER ELEVATED SURFACES AROUND THE
AREA...INCLUDING SOME AREA ROADS. SLICK ROADS WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY FOR AREAS THE RECEIVED RAIN OVERNIGHT AND THAT ARE
BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH BY 9 OR 10 AM
FOR ANY SLICKS ON AREAS TO HAVE MELTED AND CLEARED UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG AN EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FAIRLY SLOWLY...SO THE RAIN
ACCOMPANYING IT IS FORECAST TO LAST THROUGH 11 OR 12Z THIS
MORNING. AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE BE AN ISSUE THROUGH EARLY
THIS MORNING AS WELL. THE PRECIP AND FOG SHOULD BE GONE BY BETWEEN
12 AND 13Z. ONCE THE FRONT HAS MOVED OFF WELL TO OUR
EAST...EASTERN KENTUCKY SHOULD REMAIN PRECIPITATION THROUGH LATE
THIS EVENING. OUR NEXT ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WEAK IMPULSE
THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...PHASES WITH
A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKYS AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY MORPH INTO A WARM
FRONT AS IT BEGINS TO MERGE WITH THE NORTHERN SYSTEM. AS THIS
BOUNDARY MOVES NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY...LIGHT
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT ALONG IT. AT THE ONSET OF THE
EVENT...WARM MOIST AIR ALOFT WILL PUSH ACROSS AND NORTH OF THE
FRONT...OVERRIDING COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE. FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET...AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE
RAIN FALLS INTO THE COLD AIR BELOW. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE WARM
FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA QUICKLY ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY
SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS FROM OCCURRING. THE WARM FRONT IS
THEN PROGGED TO STALL JUST TO OUR NORTH. AFTER THIS HAPPENS...A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND BEGIN
PUSHING THE BOUNDARY EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW COLD AIR FROM THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TO ALSO BEGIN PUSHING
EAST...TRANSFORMING THE BOUNDARY INTO A POTENT COLD FRONT.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
EAST ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THE RAIN COULD BE
HEAVY AT TIMES AND COULD LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS ACROSS THE
AREA. AREAS PARTICULARLY PRONE TO FLOODING WILL BE THE
KENTUCKY...CUMBERLAND...AND BIG SANDY RIVER BASINS...WHOSE
HEADWATER AREAS STILL HAVE A GOOD DEAL OF SNOW COVER IN PLACE.
ENOUGH SNOW HAS ALREADY MELTED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TO CAUSE
THE GROUND TO BE COMPLETELY SATURATED. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
THAT OCCURS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL RUNOFF ALMOST IMMEDIATELY
INTO AREA CREEKS...STREAMS...AND RIVERS. THIS SITUATION WILL NEED
TO MONITORED CLOSELY.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL START OUT QUITE A BIT
BELOW NORMAL...WITH TODAYS HIGHS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA. TONIGHTS TEMPERATURES WILL NOT COOL OFF
NEARLY AS MUCH AS WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS...AS WINDS
WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT THE SOUTHEAST...LEADING TO DOWNSLOPE WARMING
IN OUR EAST AND ALLOWING FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE.
THE MAIN PUSH OF WARM AIR IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE DURING THE DAY
ON TUESDAY...AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND BEGIN ADVECTING WARM
AIR DIRECTLY OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE REGION. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY COULD EASILY MAX OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AREA WIDE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
RATHER ACTIVE AND HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN IN PLACE. UNDERWAY AND
ALREADY IMPACTING THE OH VALLEY AT THIS TIME FRAME IS AN
ENLONGATED LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WHERE A
CLOSED LOW LIES ENTRENCHED OVER THE BAJA REGION. DURING THIS
TIME...A STRONG AN ACTIVE JET CORE EXTENDS FROM OVER THE SOUTHWEST
TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS WITH THE JET MAX
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES OF 140 TO 160 KNOTS. HEADING INTO THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY...THE MENTIONED LOW OVER THE BAJA EJECTS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE ENLONGATED TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THE DEVELOPED LIFT AND DYNAMICS OVER THE MS VALLEY
AND INTO THE OH VALLEY IS QUITE SUBSTANTIAL AT THIS TIME AS THE
MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW TAKE A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY.
THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR PRETTY EFFICIENT RAINFALL AT ONSET OF THE
FIRST SYSTEM INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
AND THEN ANOTHER POSSIBLE WINTER STORM LIKE EVENT INTO MID WEEK.
THIS UNFORTUNATELY EXACERBATES THE CONCERN FOR FLOODING IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE SNOWMELT AND POSSIBLY EVEN MORE SNOW ON TOP
OF THAT.

CONCERNING THE LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF
SHORE IN THE ATLANTIC NUDGING INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE MID WEEK WILL KEEP A NEARLY STALLED
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTATION OF A SURPRISINGLY STRONG
GRADIENT SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERAL WAVES IN
THE MID LEVELS ALONG THIS FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND
THROUGH THURSDAY WILL KEEP A SIGNIFICANT QPF OVER THE AREA. THIS
WILL ONCE AGAIN KEEP FLOODING A THREAT WITH THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP
EXPECTED. AN ADDITIONAL SHOT OF MOISTURE CONTINUES AS THE LAST
WAVE RIDES NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT AND THIS FEATURE FINALLY
KICKS THE SURFACE LOW OUT TO SEA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. IT IS WORTH
MENTIONING...THAT THIS PATTERN DOES NOT HAPPEN OFTEN...ESPECIALLY
POSTFRONTAL HEAVY SNOWFALL DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE WINTER
SEASON. HOWEVER...THERE DOES SEEM TO BE SOME CONSISTENCY IN THE
MODELS AND NOW THE NAM AND SREF AS THIS EVENT HAS COME INTO THAT
TIME PERIOD. ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOWN FROM WWD PRODUCTS ARE INDICATING
MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF SNOW AND HAVE AT LEAST COLLABORATED WITH
WWD TO COME UP WITH SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER SNOW VALUES AND SNOWFALL
FORECASTS ARE IN LINE WITH THOSE TRENDS OF COLLABORATION. ANOTHER
HELPFUL INDICATOR OF AT LEAST THE BLOCKING NEEDED FOR THAT
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTATION OF THE NEARLY STALLED FRONT IS
THE ENSEMBLE MEAN OF THE NAO. A SHARP DROP IN VALUES FROM THE NAO
PRODUCT ARE OCCURRING DURING THE TIME OF THIS SYSTEMS SET UP.
WHILE NOT NECESSARILY A SHARP DROP INTO NEGATIVE VALUES...THIS
INDICATION WOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME BLOCKING OVER THE ATLANTIC AND
IS ENOUGH TO HAVE SOME CONFIDENCE IN THE QPF AND SNOWFALL VALUES
DISPLAYED IN THE FORECAST. IT IS VERY POSSIBLE TO BE GOING
STRAIGHT FROM A FLOOD CONCERN TO A SNOWFALL CONCERN IN A MATTER OF
24 HOURS.

AS FOR SNOW RATIOS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THERE IS
SOME CONCERN AT ONSET OF THIS SYSTEM THAT SOME WARM AIR ALOFT MAY
CREATE SOME FREEZING PRECIP WHICH WOULD LOWER SNOW TOTALS A BIT.
GIVEN ALL THIS...THE GRADIENT MOVING THROUGH WOULD ENSURE COLD
ENOUGH SURFACE TEMPS AND THEREFORE HAVE GONE WITH A STRONG MENTION
IN THE HWO. QPF VALUES WILL GO FROM 2 TO 2.50 INCHES AND SNOWFALL
IN THE 6 TO 8 INCH RANGE.

THE PATTERN GOES QUITE AFTER THURSDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING IN AND A NOTICEABLE LACK OF ARCTIC AIR THAT HAS USUALLY
BEEN FOLLOWING THESE SYSTEMS THIS WINTER...THOUGH STILL BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS FOR FRIDAY. SATURDAY HIGHS FINALLY GET BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL. BY SUNDAY...ANOTHER WAVE DROPPING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ASSISTS IN SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT AND THIS FEATURE TRACK NORTH
BRINGING ADDITIONAL POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER TO FAR SOUTHEASTERN
KENTUCKY. OBVIOUSLY...THIS SYSTEM IS WAY TOO FAR OUT TO PIN DOWN
WINTER PRECIP IF ANY. BUT IT DOES CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT AN ACTIVE
AND WET PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

A BRIEF AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS OVER
EASTERN KY TODAY...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. AS WE
HEAD INTO TONIGHT...THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN EXITING
TO OUR EAST...AND A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST...WITH
WINDS BECOMING GENERALLY SOUTHERLY THOUGH STILL LIGHT. AS THIS
OCCURS...EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO THICKEN AND QUICKLY LOWER TO MVFR
BETWEEN 8Z AND 12Z FROM WEST TO EAST. RAIN WILL ALSO QUICKLY MOVE
IN WITH THE CLOUDS...WITH MOST TAF SITES GENERALLY SEEING PRECIP
BETWEEN 9 AND 10Z. A STRONG WARM NOSE JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE
CONTINUES THE INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN AT
ONSET...QUICKLY CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN AS TEMPERATURES RISE
ABOVE FREEZING AFTER 12Z. UNFORTUNATELY...MODELS ARE POINTING AT
CIGS AND VIS CONTINUING TO LOWER TO LIFR CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW AS RAIN PERSISTS THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JMW





000
FXUS63 KJKL 021524
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1024 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1021 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

ALL PRECIP HAS EXITED KY AT THIS TIME...SO LET ANY MORNING PRECIP
WORDING GO IN THE ZFP FORECAST. OTHERWISE...FORECAST SEEMS TO BE
WELL ON TRACK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD KEEPING GENERALLY
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE DAY AND A DECENT WARM UP TO AROUND
40 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
DATA FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS TO MAKE SURE THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS WERE WELL REFLECTED IN THE NEAR TERM FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

UPDATED THE HOURLY GRIDS THROUGH 14Z THIS MORNING TO ADD IN SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE. THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN A BIT SLOWER TO EXIT
THE AREA THAN THE FORECAST HAD BEEN CALLING FOR...SO THE UPDATE
WAS NECESSARY. ALSO...THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW REPORTS OF A LIGHT
GLAZE OF ICE ON CARS AND OTHER ELEVATED SURFACES AROUND THE
AREA...INCLUDING SOME AREA ROADS. SLICK ROADS WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY FOR AREAS THE RECEIVED RAIN OVERNIGHT AND THAT ARE
BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH BY 9 OR 10 AM
FOR ANY SLICKS ON AREAS TO HAVE MELTED AND CLEARED UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG AN EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FAIRLY SLOWLY...SO THE RAIN
ACCOMPANYING IT IS FORECAST TO LAST THROUGH 11 OR 12Z THIS
MORNING. AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE BE AN ISSUE THROUGH EARLY
THIS MORNING AS WELL. THE PRECIP AND FOG SHOULD BE GONE BY BETWEEN
12 AND 13Z. ONCE THE FRONT HAS MOVED OFF WELL TO OUR
EAST...EASTERN KENTUCKY SHOULD REMAIN PRECIPITATION THROUGH LATE
THIS EVENING. OUR NEXT ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WEAK IMPULSE
THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...PHASES WITH
A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKYS AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY MORPH INTO A WARM
FRONT AS IT BEGINS TO MERGE WITH THE NORTHERN SYSTEM. AS THIS
BOUNDARY MOVES NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY...LIGHT
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT ALONG IT. AT THE ONSET OF THE
EVENT...WARM MOIST AIR ALOFT WILL PUSH ACROSS AND NORTH OF THE
FRONT...OVERRIDING COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE. FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET...AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE
RAIN FALLS INTO THE COLD AIR BELOW. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE WARM
FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA QUICKLY ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY
SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS FROM OCCURRING. THE WARM FRONT IS
THEN PROGGED TO STALL JUST TO OUR NORTH. AFTER THIS HAPPENS...A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND BEGIN
PUSHING THE BOUNDARY EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW COLD AIR FROM THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TO ALSO BEGIN PUSHING
EAST...TRANSFORMING THE BOUNDARY INTO A POTENT COLD FRONT.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
EAST ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THE RAIN COULD BE
HEAVY AT TIMES AND COULD LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS ACROSS THE
AREA. AREAS PARTICULARLY PRONE TO FLOODING WILL BE THE
KENTUCKY...CUMBERLAND...AND BIG SANDY RIVER BASINS...WHOSE
HEADWATER AREAS STILL HAVE A GOOD DEAL OF SNOW COVER IN PLACE.
ENOUGH SNOW HAS ALREADY MELTED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TO CAUSE
THE GROUND TO BE COMPLETELY SATURATED. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
THAT OCCURS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL RUNOFF ALMOST IMMEDIATELY
INTO AREA CREEKS...STREAMS...AND RIVERS. THIS SITUATION WILL NEED
TO MONITORED CLOSELY.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL START OUT QUITE A BIT
BELOW NORMAL...WITH TODAYS HIGHS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA. TONIGHTS TEMPERATURES WILL NOT COOL OFF
NEARLY AS MUCH AS WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS...AS WINDS
WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT THE SOUTHEAST...LEADING TO DOWNSLOPE WARMING
IN OUR EAST AND ALLOWING FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE.
THE MAIN PUSH OF WARM AIR IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE DURING THE DAY
ON TUESDAY...AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND BEGIN ADVECTING WARM
AIR DIRECTLY OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE REGION. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY COULD EASILY MAX OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AREA WIDE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
RATHER ACTIVE AND HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN IN PLACE. UNDERWAY AND
ALREADY IMPACTING THE OH VALLEY AT THIS TIME FRAME IS AN
ENLONGATED LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WHERE A
CLOSED LOW LIES ENTRENCHED OVER THE BAJA REGION. DURING THIS
TIME...A STRONG AN ACTIVE JET CORE EXTENDS FROM OVER THE SOUTHWEST
TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS WITH THE JET MAX
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES OF 140 TO 160 KNOTS. HEADING INTO THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY...THE MENTIONED LOW OVER THE BAJA EJECTS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE ENLONGATED TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THE DEVELOPED LIFT AND DYNAMICS OVER THE MS VALLEY
AND INTO THE OH VALLEY IS QUITE SUBSTANTIAL AT THIS TIME AS THE
MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW TAKE A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY.
THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR PRETTY EFFICIENT RAINFALL AT ONSET OF THE
FIRST SYSTEM INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
AND THEN ANOTHER POSSIBLE WINTER STORM LIKE EVENT INTO MID WEEK.
THIS UNFORTUNATELY EXACERBATES THE CONCERN FOR FLOODING IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE SNOWMELT AND POSSIBLY EVEN MORE SNOW ON TOP
OF THAT.

CONCERNING THE LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF
SHORE IN THE ATLANTIC NUDGING INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE MID WEEK WILL KEEP A NEARLY STALLED
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTATION OF A SURPRISINGLY STRONG
GRADIENT SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERAL WAVES IN
THE MID LEVELS ALONG THIS FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND
THROUGH THURSDAY WILL KEEP A SIGNIFICANT QPF OVER THE AREA. THIS
WILL ONCE AGAIN KEEP FLOODING A THREAT WITH THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP
EXPECTED. AN ADDITIONAL SHOT OF MOISTURE CONTINUES AS THE LAST
WAVE RIDES NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT AND THIS FEATURE FINALLY
KICKS THE SURFACE LOW OUT TO SEA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. IT IS WORTH
MENTIONING...THAT THIS PATTERN DOES NOT HAPPEN OFTEN...ESPECIALLY
POSTFRONTAL HEAVY SNOWFALL DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE WINTER
SEASON. HOWEVER...THERE DOES SEEM TO BE SOME CONSISTENCY IN THE
MODELS AND NOW THE NAM AND SREF AS THIS EVENT HAS COME INTO THAT
TIME PERIOD. ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOWN FROM WWD PRODUCTS ARE INDICATING
MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF SNOW AND HAVE AT LEAST COLLABORATED WITH
WWD TO COME UP WITH SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER SNOW VALUES AND SNOWFALL
FORECASTS ARE IN LINE WITH THOSE TRENDS OF COLLABORATION. ANOTHER
HELPFUL INDICATOR OF AT LEAST THE BLOCKING NEEDED FOR THAT
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTATION OF THE NEARLY STALLED FRONT IS
THE ENSEMBLE MEAN OF THE NAO. A SHARP DROP IN VALUES FROM THE NAO
PRODUCT ARE OCCURRING DURING THE TIME OF THIS SYSTEMS SET UP.
WHILE NOT NECESSARILY A SHARP DROP INTO NEGATIVE VALUES...THIS
INDICATION WOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME BLOCKING OVER THE ATLANTIC AND
IS ENOUGH TO HAVE SOME CONFIDENCE IN THE QPF AND SNOWFALL VALUES
DISPLAYED IN THE FORECAST. IT IS VERY POSSIBLE TO BE GOING
STRAIGHT FROM A FLOOD CONCERN TO A SNOWFALL CONCERN IN A MATTER OF
24 HOURS.

AS FOR SNOW RATIOS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THERE IS
SOME CONCERN AT ONSET OF THIS SYSTEM THAT SOME WARM AIR ALOFT MAY
CREATE SOME FREEZING PRECIP WHICH WOULD LOWER SNOW TOTALS A BIT.
GIVEN ALL THIS...THE GRADIENT MOVING THROUGH WOULD ENSURE COLD
ENOUGH SURFACE TEMPS AND THEREFORE HAVE GONE WITH A STRONG MENTION
IN THE HWO. QPF VALUES WILL GO FROM 2 TO 2.50 INCHES AND SNOWFALL
IN THE 6 TO 8 INCH RANGE.

THE PATTERN GOES QUITE AFTER THURSDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING IN AND A NOTICEABLE LACK OF ARCTIC AIR THAT HAS USUALLY
BEEN FOLLOWING THESE SYSTEMS THIS WINTER...THOUGH STILL BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS FOR FRIDAY. SATURDAY HIGHS FINALLY GET BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL. BY SUNDAY...ANOTHER WAVE DROPPING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ASSISTS IN SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT AND THIS FEATURE TRACK NORTH
BRINGING ADDITIONAL POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER TO FAR SOUTHEASTERN
KENTUCKY. OBVIOUSLY...THIS SYSTEM IS WAY TOO FAR OUT TO PIN DOWN
WINTER PRECIP IF ANY. BUT IT DOES CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT AN ACTIVE
AND WET PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 714 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

PREVAILING CONDITIONS WILL VARY FROM LIFR TO MVFR AT THE TAT SITES
EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AS A DEPARTING COLD FRONT DRAGS COLD AIR INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWEST WINDS. PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT JKL AND LOZ FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND COULD
LEAD TO A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE FORMING ON ELEVATED SURFACES AND
OTHER OBJECTS. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 9
AM. THE LOW CIG WE HAVE BEEN SEEING AROUND THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD FINALLY BEING TO IMPROVE BY 14 OR
14Z...AT WHICH TIME MVFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES. THE
CLOUDS SHOULD BE WIDELY SCATTERED BY BETWEEN 15 AND 17Z WITH
MOSTLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DRIFTING ACROSS THE SKY. ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN AND WINTRY PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD...FROM ROUGHLY 8Z ONWARD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...AR





000
FXUS63 KJKL 021524
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1024 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1021 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

ALL PRECIP HAS EXITED KY AT THIS TIME...SO LET ANY MORNING PRECIP
WORDING GO IN THE ZFP FORECAST. OTHERWISE...FORECAST SEEMS TO BE
WELL ON TRACK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD KEEPING GENERALLY
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE DAY AND A DECENT WARM UP TO AROUND
40 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
DATA FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS TO MAKE SURE THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS WERE WELL REFLECTED IN THE NEAR TERM FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

UPDATED THE HOURLY GRIDS THROUGH 14Z THIS MORNING TO ADD IN SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE. THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN A BIT SLOWER TO EXIT
THE AREA THAN THE FORECAST HAD BEEN CALLING FOR...SO THE UPDATE
WAS NECESSARY. ALSO...THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW REPORTS OF A LIGHT
GLAZE OF ICE ON CARS AND OTHER ELEVATED SURFACES AROUND THE
AREA...INCLUDING SOME AREA ROADS. SLICK ROADS WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY FOR AREAS THE RECEIVED RAIN OVERNIGHT AND THAT ARE
BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH BY 9 OR 10 AM
FOR ANY SLICKS ON AREAS TO HAVE MELTED AND CLEARED UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG AN EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FAIRLY SLOWLY...SO THE RAIN
ACCOMPANYING IT IS FORECAST TO LAST THROUGH 11 OR 12Z THIS
MORNING. AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE BE AN ISSUE THROUGH EARLY
THIS MORNING AS WELL. THE PRECIP AND FOG SHOULD BE GONE BY BETWEEN
12 AND 13Z. ONCE THE FRONT HAS MOVED OFF WELL TO OUR
EAST...EASTERN KENTUCKY SHOULD REMAIN PRECIPITATION THROUGH LATE
THIS EVENING. OUR NEXT ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WEAK IMPULSE
THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...PHASES WITH
A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKYS AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY MORPH INTO A WARM
FRONT AS IT BEGINS TO MERGE WITH THE NORTHERN SYSTEM. AS THIS
BOUNDARY MOVES NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY...LIGHT
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT ALONG IT. AT THE ONSET OF THE
EVENT...WARM MOIST AIR ALOFT WILL PUSH ACROSS AND NORTH OF THE
FRONT...OVERRIDING COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE. FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET...AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE
RAIN FALLS INTO THE COLD AIR BELOW. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE WARM
FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA QUICKLY ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY
SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS FROM OCCURRING. THE WARM FRONT IS
THEN PROGGED TO STALL JUST TO OUR NORTH. AFTER THIS HAPPENS...A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND BEGIN
PUSHING THE BOUNDARY EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW COLD AIR FROM THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TO ALSO BEGIN PUSHING
EAST...TRANSFORMING THE BOUNDARY INTO A POTENT COLD FRONT.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
EAST ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THE RAIN COULD BE
HEAVY AT TIMES AND COULD LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS ACROSS THE
AREA. AREAS PARTICULARLY PRONE TO FLOODING WILL BE THE
KENTUCKY...CUMBERLAND...AND BIG SANDY RIVER BASINS...WHOSE
HEADWATER AREAS STILL HAVE A GOOD DEAL OF SNOW COVER IN PLACE.
ENOUGH SNOW HAS ALREADY MELTED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TO CAUSE
THE GROUND TO BE COMPLETELY SATURATED. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
THAT OCCURS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL RUNOFF ALMOST IMMEDIATELY
INTO AREA CREEKS...STREAMS...AND RIVERS. THIS SITUATION WILL NEED
TO MONITORED CLOSELY.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL START OUT QUITE A BIT
BELOW NORMAL...WITH TODAYS HIGHS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA. TONIGHTS TEMPERATURES WILL NOT COOL OFF
NEARLY AS MUCH AS WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS...AS WINDS
WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT THE SOUTHEAST...LEADING TO DOWNSLOPE WARMING
IN OUR EAST AND ALLOWING FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE.
THE MAIN PUSH OF WARM AIR IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE DURING THE DAY
ON TUESDAY...AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND BEGIN ADVECTING WARM
AIR DIRECTLY OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE REGION. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY COULD EASILY MAX OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AREA WIDE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
RATHER ACTIVE AND HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN IN PLACE. UNDERWAY AND
ALREADY IMPACTING THE OH VALLEY AT THIS TIME FRAME IS AN
ENLONGATED LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WHERE A
CLOSED LOW LIES ENTRENCHED OVER THE BAJA REGION. DURING THIS
TIME...A STRONG AN ACTIVE JET CORE EXTENDS FROM OVER THE SOUTHWEST
TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS WITH THE JET MAX
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES OF 140 TO 160 KNOTS. HEADING INTO THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY...THE MENTIONED LOW OVER THE BAJA EJECTS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE ENLONGATED TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THE DEVELOPED LIFT AND DYNAMICS OVER THE MS VALLEY
AND INTO THE OH VALLEY IS QUITE SUBSTANTIAL AT THIS TIME AS THE
MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW TAKE A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY.
THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR PRETTY EFFICIENT RAINFALL AT ONSET OF THE
FIRST SYSTEM INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
AND THEN ANOTHER POSSIBLE WINTER STORM LIKE EVENT INTO MID WEEK.
THIS UNFORTUNATELY EXACERBATES THE CONCERN FOR FLOODING IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE SNOWMELT AND POSSIBLY EVEN MORE SNOW ON TOP
OF THAT.

CONCERNING THE LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF
SHORE IN THE ATLANTIC NUDGING INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE MID WEEK WILL KEEP A NEARLY STALLED
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTATION OF A SURPRISINGLY STRONG
GRADIENT SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERAL WAVES IN
THE MID LEVELS ALONG THIS FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND
THROUGH THURSDAY WILL KEEP A SIGNIFICANT QPF OVER THE AREA. THIS
WILL ONCE AGAIN KEEP FLOODING A THREAT WITH THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP
EXPECTED. AN ADDITIONAL SHOT OF MOISTURE CONTINUES AS THE LAST
WAVE RIDES NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT AND THIS FEATURE FINALLY
KICKS THE SURFACE LOW OUT TO SEA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. IT IS WORTH
MENTIONING...THAT THIS PATTERN DOES NOT HAPPEN OFTEN...ESPECIALLY
POSTFRONTAL HEAVY SNOWFALL DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE WINTER
SEASON. HOWEVER...THERE DOES SEEM TO BE SOME CONSISTENCY IN THE
MODELS AND NOW THE NAM AND SREF AS THIS EVENT HAS COME INTO THAT
TIME PERIOD. ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOWN FROM WWD PRODUCTS ARE INDICATING
MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF SNOW AND HAVE AT LEAST COLLABORATED WITH
WWD TO COME UP WITH SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER SNOW VALUES AND SNOWFALL
FORECASTS ARE IN LINE WITH THOSE TRENDS OF COLLABORATION. ANOTHER
HELPFUL INDICATOR OF AT LEAST THE BLOCKING NEEDED FOR THAT
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTATION OF THE NEARLY STALLED FRONT IS
THE ENSEMBLE MEAN OF THE NAO. A SHARP DROP IN VALUES FROM THE NAO
PRODUCT ARE OCCURRING DURING THE TIME OF THIS SYSTEMS SET UP.
WHILE NOT NECESSARILY A SHARP DROP INTO NEGATIVE VALUES...THIS
INDICATION WOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME BLOCKING OVER THE ATLANTIC AND
IS ENOUGH TO HAVE SOME CONFIDENCE IN THE QPF AND SNOWFALL VALUES
DISPLAYED IN THE FORECAST. IT IS VERY POSSIBLE TO BE GOING
STRAIGHT FROM A FLOOD CONCERN TO A SNOWFALL CONCERN IN A MATTER OF
24 HOURS.

AS FOR SNOW RATIOS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THERE IS
SOME CONCERN AT ONSET OF THIS SYSTEM THAT SOME WARM AIR ALOFT MAY
CREATE SOME FREEZING PRECIP WHICH WOULD LOWER SNOW TOTALS A BIT.
GIVEN ALL THIS...THE GRADIENT MOVING THROUGH WOULD ENSURE COLD
ENOUGH SURFACE TEMPS AND THEREFORE HAVE GONE WITH A STRONG MENTION
IN THE HWO. QPF VALUES WILL GO FROM 2 TO 2.50 INCHES AND SNOWFALL
IN THE 6 TO 8 INCH RANGE.

THE PATTERN GOES QUITE AFTER THURSDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING IN AND A NOTICEABLE LACK OF ARCTIC AIR THAT HAS USUALLY
BEEN FOLLOWING THESE SYSTEMS THIS WINTER...THOUGH STILL BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS FOR FRIDAY. SATURDAY HIGHS FINALLY GET BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL. BY SUNDAY...ANOTHER WAVE DROPPING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ASSISTS IN SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT AND THIS FEATURE TRACK NORTH
BRINGING ADDITIONAL POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER TO FAR SOUTHEASTERN
KENTUCKY. OBVIOUSLY...THIS SYSTEM IS WAY TOO FAR OUT TO PIN DOWN
WINTER PRECIP IF ANY. BUT IT DOES CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT AN ACTIVE
AND WET PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 714 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

PREVAILING CONDITIONS WILL VARY FROM LIFR TO MVFR AT THE TAT SITES
EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AS A DEPARTING COLD FRONT DRAGS COLD AIR INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWEST WINDS. PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT JKL AND LOZ FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND COULD
LEAD TO A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE FORMING ON ELEVATED SURFACES AND
OTHER OBJECTS. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 9
AM. THE LOW CIG WE HAVE BEEN SEEING AROUND THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD FINALLY BEING TO IMPROVE BY 14 OR
14Z...AT WHICH TIME MVFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES. THE
CLOUDS SHOULD BE WIDELY SCATTERED BY BETWEEN 15 AND 17Z WITH
MOSTLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DRIFTING ACROSS THE SKY. ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN AND WINTRY PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD...FROM ROUGHLY 8Z ONWARD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...AR




000
FXUS63 KJKL 021214
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
714 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 658 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

UPDATED THE HOURLY GRIDS THROUGH 14Z THIS MORNING TO ADD IN SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE. THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN A BIT SLOWER TO EXIT
THE AREA THAN THE FORECAST HAD BEEN CALLING FOR...SO THE UPDATE
WAS NECESSARY. ALSO...THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW REPORTS OF A LIGHT
GLAZE OF ICE ON CARS AND OTHER ELEVATED SURFACES AROUND THE
AREA...INCLUDING SOME AREA ROADS. SLICK ROADS WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY FOR AREAS THE RECEIVED RAIN OVERNIGHT AND THAT ARE
BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH BY 9 OR 10 AM
FOR ANY SLICKS ON AREAS TO HAVE MELTED AND CLEARED UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG AN EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FAIRLY SLOWLY...SO THE RAIN
ACCOMPANYING IT IS FORECAST TO LAST THROUGH 11 OR 12Z THIS
MORNING. AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE BE AN ISSUE THROUGH EARLY
THIS MORNING AS WELL. THE PRECIP AND FOG SHOULD BE GONE BY BETWEEN
12 AND 13Z. ONCE THE FRONT HAS MOVED OFF WELL TO OUR
EAST...EASTERN KENTUCKY SHOULD REMAIN PRECIPITATION THROUGH LATE
THIS EVENING. OUR NEXT ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WEAK IMPULSE
THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...PHASES WITH
A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKYS AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY MORPH INTO A WARM
FRONT AS IT BEGINS TO MERGE WITH THE NORTHERN SYSTEM. AS THIS
BOUNDARY MOVES NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY...LIGHT
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT ALONG IT. AT THE ONSET OF THE
EVENT...WARM MOIST AIR ALOFT WILL PUSH ACROSS AND NORTH OF THE
FRONT...OVERRIDING COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE. FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET...AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE
RAIN FALLS INTO THE COLD AIR BELOW. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE WARM
FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA QUICKLY ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY
SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS FROM OCCURRING. THE WARM FRONT IS
THEN PROGGED TO STALL JUST TO OUR NORTH. AFTER THIS HAPPENS...A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND BEGIN
PUSHING THE BOUNDARY EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW COLD AIR FROM THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TO ALSO BEGIN PUSHING
EAST...TRANSFORMING THE BOUNDARY INTO A POTENT COLD FRONT.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
EAST ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THE RAIN COULD BE
HEAVY AT TIMES AND COULD LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS ACROSS THE
AREA. AREAS PARTICULARLY PRONE TO FLOODING WILL BE THE
KENTUCKY...CUMBERLAND...AND BIG SANDY RIVER BASINS...WHOSE
HEADWATER AREAS STILL HAVE A GOOD DEAL OF SNOW COVER IN PLACE.
ENOUGH SNOW HAS ALREADY MELTED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TO CAUSE
THE GROUND TO BE COMPLETELY SATURATED. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
THAT OCCURS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL RUNOFF ALMOST IMMEDIATELY
INTO AREA CREEKS...STREAMS...AND RIVERS. THIS SITUATION WILL NEED
TO MONITORED CLOSELY.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL START OUT QUITE A BIT
BELOW NORMAL...WITH TODAYS HIGHS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA. TONIGHTS TEMPERATURES WILL NOT COOL OFF
NEARLY AS MUCH AS WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS...AS WINDS
WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT THE SOUTHEAST...LEADING TO DOWNSLOPE WARMING
IN OUR EAST AND ALLOWING FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE.
THE MAIN PUSH OF WARM AIR IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE DURING THE DAY
ON TUESDAY...AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND BEGIN ADVECTING WARM
AIR DIRECTLY OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE REGION. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY COULD EASILY MAX OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AREA WIDE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
RATHER ACTIVE AND HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN IN PLACE. UNDERWAY AND
ALREADY IMPACTING THE OH VALLEY AT THIS TIME FRAME IS AN
ENLONGATED LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WHERE A
CLOSED LOW LIES ENTRENCHED OVER THE BAJA REGION. DURING THIS
TIME...A STRONG AN ACTIVE JET CORE EXTENDS FROM OVER THE SOUTHWEST
TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS WITH THE JET MAX
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES OF 140 TO 160 KNOTS. HEADING INTO THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY...THE MENTIONED LOW OVER THE BAJA EJECTS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE ENLONGATED TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THE DEVELOPED LIFT AND DYNAMICS OVER THE MS VALLEY
AND INTO THE OH VALLEY IS QUITE SUBSTANTIAL AT THIS TIME AS THE
MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW TAKE A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY.
THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR PRETTY EFFICIENT RAINFALL AT ONSET OF THE
FIRST SYSTEM INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
AND THEN ANOTHER POSSIBLE WINTER STORM LIKE EVENT INTO MID WEEK.
THIS UNFORTUNATELY EXACERBATES THE CONCERN FOR FLOODING IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE SNOWMELT AND POSSIBLY EVEN MORE SNOW ON TOP
OF THAT.

CONCERNING THE LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF
SHORE IN THE ATLANTIC NUDGING INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE MID WEEK WILL KEEP A NEARLY STALLED
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTATION OF A SURPRISINGLY STRONG
GRADIENT SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERAL WAVES IN
THE MID LEVELS ALONG THIS FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND
THROUGH THURSDAY WILL KEEP A SIGNIFICANT QPF OVER THE AREA. THIS
WILL ONCE AGAIN KEEP FLOODING A THREAT WITH THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP
EXPECTED. AN ADDITIONAL SHOT OF MOISTURE CONTINUES AS THE LAST
WAVE RIDES NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT AND THIS FEATURE FINALLY
KICKS THE SURFACE LOW OUT TO SEA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. IT IS WORTH
MENTIONING...THAT THIS PATTERN DOES NOT HAPPEN OFTEN...ESPECIALLY
POSTFRONTAL HEAVY SNOWFALL DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE WINTER
SEASON. HOWEVER...THERE DOES SEEM TO BE SOME CONSISTENCY IN THE
MODELS AND NOW THE NAM AND SREF AS THIS EVENT HAS COME INTO THAT
TIME PERIOD. ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOWN FROM WWD PRODUCTS ARE INDICATING
MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF SNOW AND HAVE AT LEAST COLLABORATED WITH
WWD TO COME UP WITH SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER SNOW VALUES AND SNOWFALL
FORECASTS ARE IN LINE WITH THOSE TRENDS OF COLLABORATION. ANOTHER
HELPFUL INDICATOR OF AT LEAST THE BLOCKING NEEDED FOR THAT
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTATION OF THE NEARLY STALLED FRONT IS
THE ENSEMBLE MEAN OF THE NAO. A SHARP DROP IN VALUES FROM THE NAO
PRODUCT ARE OCCURRING DURING THE TIME OF THIS SYSTEMS SET UP.
WHILE NOT NECESSARILY A SHARP DROP INTO NEGATIVE VALUES...THIS
INDICATION WOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME BLOCKING OVER THE ATLANTIC AND
IS ENOUGH TO HAVE SOME CONFIDENCE IN THE QPF AND SNOWFALL VALUES
DISPLAYED IN THE FORECAST. IT IS VERY POSSIBLE TO BE GOING
STRAIGHT FROM A FLOOD CONCERN TO A SNOWFALL CONCERN IN A MATTER OF
24 HOURS.

AS FOR SNOW RATIOS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THERE IS
SOME CONCERN AT ONSET OF THIS SYSTEM THAT SOME WARM AIR ALOFT MAY
CREATE SOME FREEZING PRECIP WHICH WOULD LOWER SNOW TOTALS A BIT.
GIVEN ALL THIS...THE GRADIENT MOVING THROUGH WOULD ENSURE COLD
ENOUGH SURFACE TEMPS AND THEREFORE HAVE GONE WITH A STRONG MENTION
IN THE HWO. QPF VALUES WILL GO FROM 2 TO 2.50 INCHES AND SNOWFALL
IN THE 6 TO 8 INCH RANGE.

THE PATTERN GOES QUITE AFTER THURSDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING IN AND A NOTICEABLE LACK OF ARCTIC AIR THAT HAS USUALLY
BEEN FOLLOWING THESE SYSTEMS THIS WINTER...THOUGH STILL BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS FOR FRIDAY. SATURDAY HIGHS FINALLY GET BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL. BY SUNDAY...ANOTHER WAVE DROPPING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ASSISTS IN SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT AND THIS FEATURE TRACK NORTH
BRINGING ADDITIONAL POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER TO FAR SOUTHEASTERN
KENTUCKY. OBVIOUSLY...THIS SYSTEM IS WAY TOO FAR OUT TO PIN DOWN
WINTER PRECIP IF ANY. BUT IT DOES CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT AN ACTIVE
AND WET PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 714 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

PREVAILING CONDITIONS WILL VARY FROM LIFR TO MVFR AT THE TAT SITES
EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AS A DEPARTING COLD FRONT DRAGS COLD AIR INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWEST WINDS. PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT JKL AND LOZ FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND COULD
LEAD TO A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE FORMING ON ELEVATED SURFACES AND
OTHER OBJECTS. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 9
AM. THE LOW CIG WE HAVE BEEN SEEING AROUND THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD FINALLY BEING TO IMPROVE BY 14 OR
14Z...AT WHICH TIME MVFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES. THE
CLOUDS SHOULD BE WIDELY SCATTERED BY BETWEEN 15 AND 17Z WITH
MOSTLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DRIFTING ACROSS THE SKY. ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN AND WINTRY PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD...FROM ROUGHLY 8Z ONWARD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...AR





000
FXUS63 KJKL 021214
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
714 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 658 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

UPDATED THE HOURLY GRIDS THROUGH 14Z THIS MORNING TO ADD IN SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE. THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN A BIT SLOWER TO EXIT
THE AREA THAN THE FORECAST HAD BEEN CALLING FOR...SO THE UPDATE
WAS NECESSARY. ALSO...THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW REPORTS OF A LIGHT
GLAZE OF ICE ON CARS AND OTHER ELEVATED SURFACES AROUND THE
AREA...INCLUDING SOME AREA ROADS. SLICK ROADS WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY FOR AREAS THE RECEIVED RAIN OVERNIGHT AND THAT ARE
BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH BY 9 OR 10 AM
FOR ANY SLICKS ON AREAS TO HAVE MELTED AND CLEARED UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG AN EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FAIRLY SLOWLY...SO THE RAIN
ACCOMPANYING IT IS FORECAST TO LAST THROUGH 11 OR 12Z THIS
MORNING. AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE BE AN ISSUE THROUGH EARLY
THIS MORNING AS WELL. THE PRECIP AND FOG SHOULD BE GONE BY BETWEEN
12 AND 13Z. ONCE THE FRONT HAS MOVED OFF WELL TO OUR
EAST...EASTERN KENTUCKY SHOULD REMAIN PRECIPITATION THROUGH LATE
THIS EVENING. OUR NEXT ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WEAK IMPULSE
THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...PHASES WITH
A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKYS AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY MORPH INTO A WARM
FRONT AS IT BEGINS TO MERGE WITH THE NORTHERN SYSTEM. AS THIS
BOUNDARY MOVES NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY...LIGHT
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT ALONG IT. AT THE ONSET OF THE
EVENT...WARM MOIST AIR ALOFT WILL PUSH ACROSS AND NORTH OF THE
FRONT...OVERRIDING COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE. FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET...AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE
RAIN FALLS INTO THE COLD AIR BELOW. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE WARM
FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA QUICKLY ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY
SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS FROM OCCURRING. THE WARM FRONT IS
THEN PROGGED TO STALL JUST TO OUR NORTH. AFTER THIS HAPPENS...A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND BEGIN
PUSHING THE BOUNDARY EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW COLD AIR FROM THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TO ALSO BEGIN PUSHING
EAST...TRANSFORMING THE BOUNDARY INTO A POTENT COLD FRONT.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
EAST ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THE RAIN COULD BE
HEAVY AT TIMES AND COULD LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS ACROSS THE
AREA. AREAS PARTICULARLY PRONE TO FLOODING WILL BE THE
KENTUCKY...CUMBERLAND...AND BIG SANDY RIVER BASINS...WHOSE
HEADWATER AREAS STILL HAVE A GOOD DEAL OF SNOW COVER IN PLACE.
ENOUGH SNOW HAS ALREADY MELTED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TO CAUSE
THE GROUND TO BE COMPLETELY SATURATED. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
THAT OCCURS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL RUNOFF ALMOST IMMEDIATELY
INTO AREA CREEKS...STREAMS...AND RIVERS. THIS SITUATION WILL NEED
TO MONITORED CLOSELY.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL START OUT QUITE A BIT
BELOW NORMAL...WITH TODAYS HIGHS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA. TONIGHTS TEMPERATURES WILL NOT COOL OFF
NEARLY AS MUCH AS WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS...AS WINDS
WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT THE SOUTHEAST...LEADING TO DOWNSLOPE WARMING
IN OUR EAST AND ALLOWING FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE.
THE MAIN PUSH OF WARM AIR IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE DURING THE DAY
ON TUESDAY...AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND BEGIN ADVECTING WARM
AIR DIRECTLY OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE REGION. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY COULD EASILY MAX OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AREA WIDE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
RATHER ACTIVE AND HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN IN PLACE. UNDERWAY AND
ALREADY IMPACTING THE OH VALLEY AT THIS TIME FRAME IS AN
ENLONGATED LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WHERE A
CLOSED LOW LIES ENTRENCHED OVER THE BAJA REGION. DURING THIS
TIME...A STRONG AN ACTIVE JET CORE EXTENDS FROM OVER THE SOUTHWEST
TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS WITH THE JET MAX
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES OF 140 TO 160 KNOTS. HEADING INTO THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY...THE MENTIONED LOW OVER THE BAJA EJECTS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE ENLONGATED TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THE DEVELOPED LIFT AND DYNAMICS OVER THE MS VALLEY
AND INTO THE OH VALLEY IS QUITE SUBSTANTIAL AT THIS TIME AS THE
MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW TAKE A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY.
THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR PRETTY EFFICIENT RAINFALL AT ONSET OF THE
FIRST SYSTEM INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
AND THEN ANOTHER POSSIBLE WINTER STORM LIKE EVENT INTO MID WEEK.
THIS UNFORTUNATELY EXACERBATES THE CONCERN FOR FLOODING IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE SNOWMELT AND POSSIBLY EVEN MORE SNOW ON TOP
OF THAT.

CONCERNING THE LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF
SHORE IN THE ATLANTIC NUDGING INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE MID WEEK WILL KEEP A NEARLY STALLED
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTATION OF A SURPRISINGLY STRONG
GRADIENT SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERAL WAVES IN
THE MID LEVELS ALONG THIS FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND
THROUGH THURSDAY WILL KEEP A SIGNIFICANT QPF OVER THE AREA. THIS
WILL ONCE AGAIN KEEP FLOODING A THREAT WITH THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP
EXPECTED. AN ADDITIONAL SHOT OF MOISTURE CONTINUES AS THE LAST
WAVE RIDES NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT AND THIS FEATURE FINALLY
KICKS THE SURFACE LOW OUT TO SEA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. IT IS WORTH
MENTIONING...THAT THIS PATTERN DOES NOT HAPPEN OFTEN...ESPECIALLY
POSTFRONTAL HEAVY SNOWFALL DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE WINTER
SEASON. HOWEVER...THERE DOES SEEM TO BE SOME CONSISTENCY IN THE
MODELS AND NOW THE NAM AND SREF AS THIS EVENT HAS COME INTO THAT
TIME PERIOD. ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOWN FROM WWD PRODUCTS ARE INDICATING
MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF SNOW AND HAVE AT LEAST COLLABORATED WITH
WWD TO COME UP WITH SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER SNOW VALUES AND SNOWFALL
FORECASTS ARE IN LINE WITH THOSE TRENDS OF COLLABORATION. ANOTHER
HELPFUL INDICATOR OF AT LEAST THE BLOCKING NEEDED FOR THAT
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTATION OF THE NEARLY STALLED FRONT IS
THE ENSEMBLE MEAN OF THE NAO. A SHARP DROP IN VALUES FROM THE NAO
PRODUCT ARE OCCURRING DURING THE TIME OF THIS SYSTEMS SET UP.
WHILE NOT NECESSARILY A SHARP DROP INTO NEGATIVE VALUES...THIS
INDICATION WOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME BLOCKING OVER THE ATLANTIC AND
IS ENOUGH TO HAVE SOME CONFIDENCE IN THE QPF AND SNOWFALL VALUES
DISPLAYED IN THE FORECAST. IT IS VERY POSSIBLE TO BE GOING
STRAIGHT FROM A FLOOD CONCERN TO A SNOWFALL CONCERN IN A MATTER OF
24 HOURS.

AS FOR SNOW RATIOS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THERE IS
SOME CONCERN AT ONSET OF THIS SYSTEM THAT SOME WARM AIR ALOFT MAY
CREATE SOME FREEZING PRECIP WHICH WOULD LOWER SNOW TOTALS A BIT.
GIVEN ALL THIS...THE GRADIENT MOVING THROUGH WOULD ENSURE COLD
ENOUGH SURFACE TEMPS AND THEREFORE HAVE GONE WITH A STRONG MENTION
IN THE HWO. QPF VALUES WILL GO FROM 2 TO 2.50 INCHES AND SNOWFALL
IN THE 6 TO 8 INCH RANGE.

THE PATTERN GOES QUITE AFTER THURSDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING IN AND A NOTICEABLE LACK OF ARCTIC AIR THAT HAS USUALLY
BEEN FOLLOWING THESE SYSTEMS THIS WINTER...THOUGH STILL BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS FOR FRIDAY. SATURDAY HIGHS FINALLY GET BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL. BY SUNDAY...ANOTHER WAVE DROPPING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ASSISTS IN SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT AND THIS FEATURE TRACK NORTH
BRINGING ADDITIONAL POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER TO FAR SOUTHEASTERN
KENTUCKY. OBVIOUSLY...THIS SYSTEM IS WAY TOO FAR OUT TO PIN DOWN
WINTER PRECIP IF ANY. BUT IT DOES CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT AN ACTIVE
AND WET PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 714 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

PREVAILING CONDITIONS WILL VARY FROM LIFR TO MVFR AT THE TAT SITES
EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AS A DEPARTING COLD FRONT DRAGS COLD AIR INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWEST WINDS. PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT JKL AND LOZ FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND COULD
LEAD TO A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE FORMING ON ELEVATED SURFACES AND
OTHER OBJECTS. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 9
AM. THE LOW CIG WE HAVE BEEN SEEING AROUND THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD FINALLY BEING TO IMPROVE BY 14 OR
14Z...AT WHICH TIME MVFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES. THE
CLOUDS SHOULD BE WIDELY SCATTERED BY BETWEEN 15 AND 17Z WITH
MOSTLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DRIFTING ACROSS THE SKY. ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN AND WINTRY PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD...FROM ROUGHLY 8Z ONWARD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...AR




000
FXUS63 KJKL 021214
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
714 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 658 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

UPDATED THE HOURLY GRIDS THROUGH 14Z THIS MORNING TO ADD IN SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE. THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN A BIT SLOWER TO EXIT
THE AREA THAN THE FORECAST HAD BEEN CALLING FOR...SO THE UPDATE
WAS NECESSARY. ALSO...THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW REPORTS OF A LIGHT
GLAZE OF ICE ON CARS AND OTHER ELEVATED SURFACES AROUND THE
AREA...INCLUDING SOME AREA ROADS. SLICK ROADS WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY FOR AREAS THE RECEIVED RAIN OVERNIGHT AND THAT ARE
BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH BY 9 OR 10 AM
FOR ANY SLICKS ON AREAS TO HAVE MELTED AND CLEARED UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG AN EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FAIRLY SLOWLY...SO THE RAIN
ACCOMPANYING IT IS FORECAST TO LAST THROUGH 11 OR 12Z THIS
MORNING. AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE BE AN ISSUE THROUGH EARLY
THIS MORNING AS WELL. THE PRECIP AND FOG SHOULD BE GONE BY BETWEEN
12 AND 13Z. ONCE THE FRONT HAS MOVED OFF WELL TO OUR
EAST...EASTERN KENTUCKY SHOULD REMAIN PRECIPITATION THROUGH LATE
THIS EVENING. OUR NEXT ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WEAK IMPULSE
THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...PHASES WITH
A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKYS AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY MORPH INTO A WARM
FRONT AS IT BEGINS TO MERGE WITH THE NORTHERN SYSTEM. AS THIS
BOUNDARY MOVES NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY...LIGHT
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT ALONG IT. AT THE ONSET OF THE
EVENT...WARM MOIST AIR ALOFT WILL PUSH ACROSS AND NORTH OF THE
FRONT...OVERRIDING COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE. FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET...AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE
RAIN FALLS INTO THE COLD AIR BELOW. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE WARM
FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA QUICKLY ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY
SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS FROM OCCURRING. THE WARM FRONT IS
THEN PROGGED TO STALL JUST TO OUR NORTH. AFTER THIS HAPPENS...A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND BEGIN
PUSHING THE BOUNDARY EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW COLD AIR FROM THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TO ALSO BEGIN PUSHING
EAST...TRANSFORMING THE BOUNDARY INTO A POTENT COLD FRONT.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
EAST ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THE RAIN COULD BE
HEAVY AT TIMES AND COULD LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS ACROSS THE
AREA. AREAS PARTICULARLY PRONE TO FLOODING WILL BE THE
KENTUCKY...CUMBERLAND...AND BIG SANDY RIVER BASINS...WHOSE
HEADWATER AREAS STILL HAVE A GOOD DEAL OF SNOW COVER IN PLACE.
ENOUGH SNOW HAS ALREADY MELTED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TO CAUSE
THE GROUND TO BE COMPLETELY SATURATED. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
THAT OCCURS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL RUNOFF ALMOST IMMEDIATELY
INTO AREA CREEKS...STREAMS...AND RIVERS. THIS SITUATION WILL NEED
TO MONITORED CLOSELY.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL START OUT QUITE A BIT
BELOW NORMAL...WITH TODAYS HIGHS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA. TONIGHTS TEMPERATURES WILL NOT COOL OFF
NEARLY AS MUCH AS WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS...AS WINDS
WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT THE SOUTHEAST...LEADING TO DOWNSLOPE WARMING
IN OUR EAST AND ALLOWING FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE.
THE MAIN PUSH OF WARM AIR IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE DURING THE DAY
ON TUESDAY...AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND BEGIN ADVECTING WARM
AIR DIRECTLY OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE REGION. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY COULD EASILY MAX OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AREA WIDE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
RATHER ACTIVE AND HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN IN PLACE. UNDERWAY AND
ALREADY IMPACTING THE OH VALLEY AT THIS TIME FRAME IS AN
ENLONGATED LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WHERE A
CLOSED LOW LIES ENTRENCHED OVER THE BAJA REGION. DURING THIS
TIME...A STRONG AN ACTIVE JET CORE EXTENDS FROM OVER THE SOUTHWEST
TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS WITH THE JET MAX
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES OF 140 TO 160 KNOTS. HEADING INTO THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY...THE MENTIONED LOW OVER THE BAJA EJECTS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE ENLONGATED TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THE DEVELOPED LIFT AND DYNAMICS OVER THE MS VALLEY
AND INTO THE OH VALLEY IS QUITE SUBSTANTIAL AT THIS TIME AS THE
MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW TAKE A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY.
THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR PRETTY EFFICIENT RAINFALL AT ONSET OF THE
FIRST SYSTEM INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
AND THEN ANOTHER POSSIBLE WINTER STORM LIKE EVENT INTO MID WEEK.
THIS UNFORTUNATELY EXACERBATES THE CONCERN FOR FLOODING IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE SNOWMELT AND POSSIBLY EVEN MORE SNOW ON TOP
OF THAT.

CONCERNING THE LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF
SHORE IN THE ATLANTIC NUDGING INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE MID WEEK WILL KEEP A NEARLY STALLED
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTATION OF A SURPRISINGLY STRONG
GRADIENT SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERAL WAVES IN
THE MID LEVELS ALONG THIS FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND
THROUGH THURSDAY WILL KEEP A SIGNIFICANT QPF OVER THE AREA. THIS
WILL ONCE AGAIN KEEP FLOODING A THREAT WITH THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP
EXPECTED. AN ADDITIONAL SHOT OF MOISTURE CONTINUES AS THE LAST
WAVE RIDES NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT AND THIS FEATURE FINALLY
KICKS THE SURFACE LOW OUT TO SEA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. IT IS WORTH
MENTIONING...THAT THIS PATTERN DOES NOT HAPPEN OFTEN...ESPECIALLY
POSTFRONTAL HEAVY SNOWFALL DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE WINTER
SEASON. HOWEVER...THERE DOES SEEM TO BE SOME CONSISTENCY IN THE
MODELS AND NOW THE NAM AND SREF AS THIS EVENT HAS COME INTO THAT
TIME PERIOD. ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOWN FROM WWD PRODUCTS ARE INDICATING
MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF SNOW AND HAVE AT LEAST COLLABORATED WITH
WWD TO COME UP WITH SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER SNOW VALUES AND SNOWFALL
FORECASTS ARE IN LINE WITH THOSE TRENDS OF COLLABORATION. ANOTHER
HELPFUL INDICATOR OF AT LEAST THE BLOCKING NEEDED FOR THAT
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTATION OF THE NEARLY STALLED FRONT IS
THE ENSEMBLE MEAN OF THE NAO. A SHARP DROP IN VALUES FROM THE NAO
PRODUCT ARE OCCURRING DURING THE TIME OF THIS SYSTEMS SET UP.
WHILE NOT NECESSARILY A SHARP DROP INTO NEGATIVE VALUES...THIS
INDICATION WOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME BLOCKING OVER THE ATLANTIC AND
IS ENOUGH TO HAVE SOME CONFIDENCE IN THE QPF AND SNOWFALL VALUES
DISPLAYED IN THE FORECAST. IT IS VERY POSSIBLE TO BE GOING
STRAIGHT FROM A FLOOD CONCERN TO A SNOWFALL CONCERN IN A MATTER OF
24 HOURS.

AS FOR SNOW RATIOS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THERE IS
SOME CONCERN AT ONSET OF THIS SYSTEM THAT SOME WARM AIR ALOFT MAY
CREATE SOME FREEZING PRECIP WHICH WOULD LOWER SNOW TOTALS A BIT.
GIVEN ALL THIS...THE GRADIENT MOVING THROUGH WOULD ENSURE COLD
ENOUGH SURFACE TEMPS AND THEREFORE HAVE GONE WITH A STRONG MENTION
IN THE HWO. QPF VALUES WILL GO FROM 2 TO 2.50 INCHES AND SNOWFALL
IN THE 6 TO 8 INCH RANGE.

THE PATTERN GOES QUITE AFTER THURSDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING IN AND A NOTICEABLE LACK OF ARCTIC AIR THAT HAS USUALLY
BEEN FOLLOWING THESE SYSTEMS THIS WINTER...THOUGH STILL BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS FOR FRIDAY. SATURDAY HIGHS FINALLY GET BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL. BY SUNDAY...ANOTHER WAVE DROPPING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ASSISTS IN SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT AND THIS FEATURE TRACK NORTH
BRINGING ADDITIONAL POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER TO FAR SOUTHEASTERN
KENTUCKY. OBVIOUSLY...THIS SYSTEM IS WAY TOO FAR OUT TO PIN DOWN
WINTER PRECIP IF ANY. BUT IT DOES CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT AN ACTIVE
AND WET PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 714 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

PREVAILING CONDITIONS WILL VARY FROM LIFR TO MVFR AT THE TAT SITES
EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AS A DEPARTING COLD FRONT DRAGS COLD AIR INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWEST WINDS. PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT JKL AND LOZ FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND COULD
LEAD TO A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE FORMING ON ELEVATED SURFACES AND
OTHER OBJECTS. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 9
AM. THE LOW CIG WE HAVE BEEN SEEING AROUND THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD FINALLY BEING TO IMPROVE BY 14 OR
14Z...AT WHICH TIME MVFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES. THE
CLOUDS SHOULD BE WIDELY SCATTERED BY BETWEEN 15 AND 17Z WITH
MOSTLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DRIFTING ACROSS THE SKY. ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN AND WINTRY PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD...FROM ROUGHLY 8Z ONWARD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...AR




000
FXUS63 KJKL 020952
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
452 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG AN EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FAIRLY SLOWLY...SO THE RAIN
ACCOMPANYING IT IS FORECAST TO LAST THROUGH 11 OR 12Z THIS
MORNING. AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE BE AN ISSUE THROUGH EARLY
THIS MORNING AS WELL. THE PRECIP AND FOG SHOULD BE GONE BY BETWEEN
12 AND 13Z. ONCE THE FRONT HAS MOVED OFF WELL TO OUR
EAST...EASTERN KENTUCKY SHOULD REMAIN PRECIPITATION THROUGH LATE
THIS EVENING. OUR NEXT ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WEAK IMPULSE
THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...PHASES WITH
A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKYS AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY MORPH INTO A WARM
FRONT AS IT BEGINS TO MERGE WITH THE NORTHERN SYSTEM. AS THIS
BOUNDARY MOVES NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY...LIGHT
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT ALONG IT. AT THE ONSET OF THE
EVENT...WARM MOIST AIR ALOFT WILL PUSH ACROSS AND NORTH OF THE
FRONT...OVERRIDING COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE. FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET...AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE
RAIN FALLS INTO THE COLD AIR BELOW. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE WARM
FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA QUICKLY ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY
SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS FROM OCCURRING. THE WARM FRONT IS
THEN PROGGED TO STALL JUST TO OUR NORTH. AFTER THIS HAPPENS...A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND BEGIN
PUSHING THE BOUNDARY EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW COLD AIR FROM THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TO ALSO BEGIN PUSHING
EAST...TRANSFORMING THE BOUNDARY INTO A POTENT COLD FRONT.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
EAST ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THE RAIN COULD BE
HEAVY AT TIMES AND COULD LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS ACROSS THE
AREA. AREAS PARTICULARLY PRONE TO FLOODING WILL BE THE
KENTUCKY...CUMBERLAND...AND BIG SANDY RIVER BASINS...WHOSE
HEADWATER AREAS STILL HAVE A GOOD DEAL OF SNOW COVER IN PLACE.
ENOUGH SNOW HAS ALREADY MELTED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TO CAUSE
THE GROUND TO BE COMPLETELY SATURATED. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
THAT OCCURS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL RUNOFF ALMOST IMMEDIATELY
INTO AREA CREEKS...STREAMS...AND RIVERS. THIS SITUATION WILL NEED
TO MONITORED CLOSELY.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL START OUT QUITE A BIT
BELOW NORMAL...WITH TODAYS HIGHS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA. TONIGHTS TEMPERATURES WILL NOT COOL OFF
NEARLY AS MUCH AS WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS...AS WINDS
WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT THE SOUTHEAST...LEADING TO DOWNSLOPE WARMING
IN OUR EAST AND ALLOWING FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE.
THE MAIN PUSH OF WARM AIR IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE DURING THE DAY
ON TUESDAY...AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND BEGIN ADVECTING WARM
AIR DIRECTLY OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE REGION. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY COULD EASILY MAX OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AREA WIDE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
RATHER ACTIVE AND HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN IN PLACE. UNDERWAY AND
ALREADY IMPACTING THE OH VALLEY AT THIS TIME FRAME IS AN
ENLONGATED LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WHERE A
CLOSED LOW LIES ENTRENCHED OVER THE BAJA REGION. DURING THIS
TIME...A STRONG AN ACTIVE JET CORE EXTENDS FROM OVER THE SOUTHWEST
TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS WITH THE JET MAX
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES OF 140 TO 160 KNOTS. HEADING INTO THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY...THE MENTIONED LOW OVER THE BAJA EJECTS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE ENLONGATED TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THE DEVELOPED LIFT AND DYNAMICS OVER THE MS VALLEY
AND INTO THE OH VALLEY IS QUITE SUBSTANTIAL AT THIS TIME AS THE
MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW TAKE A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY.
THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR PRETTY EFFICIENT RAINFALL AT ONSET OF THE
FIRST SYSTEM INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
AND THEN ANOTHER POSSIBLE WINTER STORM LIKE EVENT INTO MID WEEK.
THIS UNFORTUNATELY EXACERBATES THE CONCERN FOR FLOODING IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE SNOWMELT AND POSSIBLY EVEN MORE SNOW ON TOP
OF THAT.

CONCERNING THE LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF
SHORE IN THE ATLANTIC NUDGING INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE MID WEEK WILL KEEP A NEARLY STALLED
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTATION OF A SURPRISINGLY STRONG
GRADIENT SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERAL WAVES IN
THE MID LEVELS ALONG THIS FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND
THROUGH THURSDAY WILL KEEP A SIGNIFICANT QPF OVER THE AREA. THIS
WILL ONCE AGAIN KEEP FLOODING A THREAT WITH THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP
EXPECTED. AN ADDITIONAL SHOT OF MOISTURE CONTINUES AS THE LAST
WAVE RIDES NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT AND THIS FEATURE FINALLY
KICKS THE SURFACE LOW OUT TO SEA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. IT IS WORTH
MENTIONING...THAT THIS PATTERN DOES NOT HAPPEN OFTEN...ESPECIALLY
POSTFRONTAL HEAVY SNOWFALL DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE WINTER
SEASON. HOWEVER...THERE DOES SEEM TO BE SOME CONSISTENCY IN THE
MODELS AND NOW THE NAM AND SREF AS THIS EVENT HAS COME INTO THAT
TIME PERIOD. ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOWN FROM WWD PRODUCTS ARE INDICATING
MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF SNOW AND HAVE AT LEAST COLLABORATED WITH
WWD TO COME UP WITH SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER SNOW VALUES AND SNOWFALL
FORECASTS ARE IN LINE WITH THOSE TRENDS OF COLLABORATION. ANOTHER
HELPFUL INDICATOR OF AT LEAST THE BLOCKING NEEDED FOR THAT
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTATION OF THE NEARLY STALLED FRONT IS
THE ENSEMBLE MEAN OF THE NAO. A SHARP DROP IN VALUES FROM THE NAO
PRODUCT ARE OCCURRING DURING THE TIME OF THIS SYSTEMS SET UP.
WHILE NOT NECESSARILY A SHARP DROP INTO NEGATIVE VALUES...THIS
INDICATION WOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME BLOCKING OVER THE ATLANTIC AND
IS ENOUGH TO HAVE SOME CONFIDENCE IN THE QPF AND SNOWFALL VALUES
DISPLAYED IN THE FORECAST. IT IS VERY POSSIBLE TO BE GOING
STRAIGHT FROM A FLOOD CONCERN TO A SNOWFALL CONCERN IN A MATTER OF
24 HOURS.

AS FOR SNOW RATIOS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THERE IS
SOME CONCERN AT ONSET OF THIS SYSTEM THAT SOME WARM AIR ALOFT MAY
CREATE SOME FREEZING PRECIP WHICH WOULD LOWER SNOW TOTALS A BIT.
GIVEN ALL THIS...THE GRADIENT MOVING THROUGH WOULD ENSURE COLD
ENOUGH SURFACE TEMPS AND THEREFORE HAVE GONE WITH A STRONG MENTION
IN THE HWO. QPF VALUES WILL GO FROM 2 TO 2.50 INCHES AND SNOWFALL
IN THE 6 TO 8 INCH RANGE.

THE PATTERN GOES QUITE AFTER THURSDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING IN AND A NOTICEABLE LACK OF ARCTIC AIR THAT HAS USUALLY
BEEN FOLLOWING THESE SYSTEMS THIS WINTER...THOUGH STILL BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS FOR FRIDAY. SATURDAY HIGHS FINALLY GET BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL. BY SUNDAY...ANOTHER WAVE DROPPING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ASSISTS IN SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT AND THIS FEATURE TRACK NORTH
BRINGING ADDITIONAL POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER TO FAR SOUTHEASTERN
KENTUCKY. OBVIOUSLY...THIS SYSTEM IS WAY TOO FAR OUT TO PIN DOWN
WINTER PRECIP IF ANY. BUT IT DOES CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT AN ACTIVE
AND WET PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

NEAR LIFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE AS RAIN SHOWERS PUSH SOUTH ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY PUT CIGS AT OR
BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH LITTLE
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED. VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE SHARPLY REDUCED
AT TIMES DUE TO THE PRECIPITATION AND SOME FOG THAT HAS BEGUN TO
FORM ACROSS THE AREA...MEANING THERE WILL ALSO BE A GOOD CHANCE
THAT VSBYS WILL FALL BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS AT TIMES. CIGS SHOULD
BREAK UP AND LIFT TOMORROW MORNING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS
SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
BY MIDDAY TOMORROW.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...AR





000
FXUS63 KJKL 020952
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
452 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG AN EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FAIRLY SLOWLY...SO THE RAIN
ACCOMPANYING IT IS FORECAST TO LAST THROUGH 11 OR 12Z THIS
MORNING. AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE BE AN ISSUE THROUGH EARLY
THIS MORNING AS WELL. THE PRECIP AND FOG SHOULD BE GONE BY BETWEEN
12 AND 13Z. ONCE THE FRONT HAS MOVED OFF WELL TO OUR
EAST...EASTERN KENTUCKY SHOULD REMAIN PRECIPITATION THROUGH LATE
THIS EVENING. OUR NEXT ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WEAK IMPULSE
THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...PHASES WITH
A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKYS AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY MORPH INTO A WARM
FRONT AS IT BEGINS TO MERGE WITH THE NORTHERN SYSTEM. AS THIS
BOUNDARY MOVES NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY...LIGHT
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT ALONG IT. AT THE ONSET OF THE
EVENT...WARM MOIST AIR ALOFT WILL PUSH ACROSS AND NORTH OF THE
FRONT...OVERRIDING COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE. FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET...AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE
RAIN FALLS INTO THE COLD AIR BELOW. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE WARM
FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA QUICKLY ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY
SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS FROM OCCURRING. THE WARM FRONT IS
THEN PROGGED TO STALL JUST TO OUR NORTH. AFTER THIS HAPPENS...A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND BEGIN
PUSHING THE BOUNDARY EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW COLD AIR FROM THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TO ALSO BEGIN PUSHING
EAST...TRANSFORMING THE BOUNDARY INTO A POTENT COLD FRONT.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
EAST ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THE RAIN COULD BE
HEAVY AT TIMES AND COULD LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS ACROSS THE
AREA. AREAS PARTICULARLY PRONE TO FLOODING WILL BE THE
KENTUCKY...CUMBERLAND...AND BIG SANDY RIVER BASINS...WHOSE
HEADWATER AREAS STILL HAVE A GOOD DEAL OF SNOW COVER IN PLACE.
ENOUGH SNOW HAS ALREADY MELTED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TO CAUSE
THE GROUND TO BE COMPLETELY SATURATED. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
THAT OCCURS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL RUNOFF ALMOST IMMEDIATELY
INTO AREA CREEKS...STREAMS...AND RIVERS. THIS SITUATION WILL NEED
TO MONITORED CLOSELY.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL START OUT QUITE A BIT
BELOW NORMAL...WITH TODAYS HIGHS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA. TONIGHTS TEMPERATURES WILL NOT COOL OFF
NEARLY AS MUCH AS WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS...AS WINDS
WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT THE SOUTHEAST...LEADING TO DOWNSLOPE WARMING
IN OUR EAST AND ALLOWING FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE.
THE MAIN PUSH OF WARM AIR IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE DURING THE DAY
ON TUESDAY...AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND BEGIN ADVECTING WARM
AIR DIRECTLY OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE REGION. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY COULD EASILY MAX OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AREA WIDE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
RATHER ACTIVE AND HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN IN PLACE. UNDERWAY AND
ALREADY IMPACTING THE OH VALLEY AT THIS TIME FRAME IS AN
ENLONGATED LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WHERE A
CLOSED LOW LIES ENTRENCHED OVER THE BAJA REGION. DURING THIS
TIME...A STRONG AN ACTIVE JET CORE EXTENDS FROM OVER THE SOUTHWEST
TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS WITH THE JET MAX
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES OF 140 TO 160 KNOTS. HEADING INTO THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY...THE MENTIONED LOW OVER THE BAJA EJECTS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE ENLONGATED TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THE DEVELOPED LIFT AND DYNAMICS OVER THE MS VALLEY
AND INTO THE OH VALLEY IS QUITE SUBSTANTIAL AT THIS TIME AS THE
MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW TAKE A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY.
THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR PRETTY EFFICIENT RAINFALL AT ONSET OF THE
FIRST SYSTEM INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
AND THEN ANOTHER POSSIBLE WINTER STORM LIKE EVENT INTO MID WEEK.
THIS UNFORTUNATELY EXACERBATES THE CONCERN FOR FLOODING IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE SNOWMELT AND POSSIBLY EVEN MORE SNOW ON TOP
OF THAT.

CONCERNING THE LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF
SHORE IN THE ATLANTIC NUDGING INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE MID WEEK WILL KEEP A NEARLY STALLED
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTATION OF A SURPRISINGLY STRONG
GRADIENT SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERAL WAVES IN
THE MID LEVELS ALONG THIS FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND
THROUGH THURSDAY WILL KEEP A SIGNIFICANT QPF OVER THE AREA. THIS
WILL ONCE AGAIN KEEP FLOODING A THREAT WITH THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP
EXPECTED. AN ADDITIONAL SHOT OF MOISTURE CONTINUES AS THE LAST
WAVE RIDES NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT AND THIS FEATURE FINALLY
KICKS THE SURFACE LOW OUT TO SEA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. IT IS WORTH
MENTIONING...THAT THIS PATTERN DOES NOT HAPPEN OFTEN...ESPECIALLY
POSTFRONTAL HEAVY SNOWFALL DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE WINTER
SEASON. HOWEVER...THERE DOES SEEM TO BE SOME CONSISTENCY IN THE
MODELS AND NOW THE NAM AND SREF AS THIS EVENT HAS COME INTO THAT
TIME PERIOD. ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOWN FROM WWD PRODUCTS ARE INDICATING
MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF SNOW AND HAVE AT LEAST COLLABORATED WITH
WWD TO COME UP WITH SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER SNOW VALUES AND SNOWFALL
FORECASTS ARE IN LINE WITH THOSE TRENDS OF COLLABORATION. ANOTHER
HELPFUL INDICATOR OF AT LEAST THE BLOCKING NEEDED FOR THAT
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTATION OF THE NEARLY STALLED FRONT IS
THE ENSEMBLE MEAN OF THE NAO. A SHARP DROP IN VALUES FROM THE NAO
PRODUCT ARE OCCURRING DURING THE TIME OF THIS SYSTEMS SET UP.
WHILE NOT NECESSARILY A SHARP DROP INTO NEGATIVE VALUES...THIS
INDICATION WOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME BLOCKING OVER THE ATLANTIC AND
IS ENOUGH TO HAVE SOME CONFIDENCE IN THE QPF AND SNOWFALL VALUES
DISPLAYED IN THE FORECAST. IT IS VERY POSSIBLE TO BE GOING
STRAIGHT FROM A FLOOD CONCERN TO A SNOWFALL CONCERN IN A MATTER OF
24 HOURS.

AS FOR SNOW RATIOS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THERE IS
SOME CONCERN AT ONSET OF THIS SYSTEM THAT SOME WARM AIR ALOFT MAY
CREATE SOME FREEZING PRECIP WHICH WOULD LOWER SNOW TOTALS A BIT.
GIVEN ALL THIS...THE GRADIENT MOVING THROUGH WOULD ENSURE COLD
ENOUGH SURFACE TEMPS AND THEREFORE HAVE GONE WITH A STRONG MENTION
IN THE HWO. QPF VALUES WILL GO FROM 2 TO 2.50 INCHES AND SNOWFALL
IN THE 6 TO 8 INCH RANGE.

THE PATTERN GOES QUITE AFTER THURSDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING IN AND A NOTICEABLE LACK OF ARCTIC AIR THAT HAS USUALLY
BEEN FOLLOWING THESE SYSTEMS THIS WINTER...THOUGH STILL BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS FOR FRIDAY. SATURDAY HIGHS FINALLY GET BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL. BY SUNDAY...ANOTHER WAVE DROPPING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ASSISTS IN SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT AND THIS FEATURE TRACK NORTH
BRINGING ADDITIONAL POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER TO FAR SOUTHEASTERN
KENTUCKY. OBVIOUSLY...THIS SYSTEM IS WAY TOO FAR OUT TO PIN DOWN
WINTER PRECIP IF ANY. BUT IT DOES CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT AN ACTIVE
AND WET PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

NEAR LIFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE AS RAIN SHOWERS PUSH SOUTH ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY PUT CIGS AT OR
BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH LITTLE
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED. VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE SHARPLY REDUCED
AT TIMES DUE TO THE PRECIPITATION AND SOME FOG THAT HAS BEGUN TO
FORM ACROSS THE AREA...MEANING THERE WILL ALSO BE A GOOD CHANCE
THAT VSBYS WILL FALL BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS AT TIMES. CIGS SHOULD
BREAK UP AND LIFT TOMORROW MORNING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS
SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
BY MIDDAY TOMORROW.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...AR




000
FXUS63 KJKL 020805
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
305 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG AN EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FAIRLY SLOWLY...SO THE RAIN
ACCOMPANYING IT IS FORECAST TO LAST THROUGH 11 OR 12Z THIS
MORNING. AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE BE AN ISSUE THROUGH EARLY
THIS MORNING AS WELL. THE PRECIP AND FOG SHOULD BE GONE BY BETWEEN
12 AND 13Z. ONCE THE FRONT HAS MOVED OFF WELL TO OUR
EAST...EASTERN KENTUCKY SHOULD REMAIN PRECIPITATION THROUGH LATE
THIS EVENING. OUR NEXT ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WEAK IMPULSE
THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...PHASES WITH
A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKYS AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY MORPH INTO A WARM
FRONT AS IT BEGINS TO MERGE WITH THE NORTHERN SYSTEM. AS THIS
BOUNDARY MOVES NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY...LIGHT
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT ALONG IT. AT THE ONSET OF THE
EVENT...WARM MOIST AIR ALOFT WILL PUSH ACROSS AND NORTH OF THE
FRONT...OVERRIDING COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE. FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET...AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE
RAIN FALLS INTO THE COLD AIR BELOW. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE WARM
FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA QUICKLY ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY
SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS FROM OCCURRING. THE WARM FRONT IS
THEN PROGGED TO STALL JUST TO OUR NORTH. AFTER THIS HAPPENS...A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND BEGIN
PUSHING THE BOUNDARY EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW COLD AIR FROM THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TO ALSO BEGIN PUSHING
EAST...TRANSFORMING THE BOUNDARY INTO A POTENT COLD FRONT.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
EAST ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THE RAIN COULD BE
HEAVY AT TIMES AND COULD LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS ACROSS THE
AREA. AREAS PARTICULARLY PRONE TO FLOODING WILL BE THE
KENTUCKY...CUMBERLAND...AND BIG SANDY RIVER BASINS...WHOSE
HEADWATER AREAS STILL HAVE A GOOD DEAL OF SNOW COVER IN PLACE.
ENOUGH SNOW HAS ALREADY MELTED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TO CAUSE
THE GROUND TO BE COMPLETELY SATURATED. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
THAT OCCURS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL RUNOFF ALMOST IMMEDIATELY
INTO AREA CREEKS...STREAMS...AND RIVERS. THIS SITUATION WILL NEED
TO MONITORED CLOSELY.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL START OUT QUITE A BIT
BELOW NORMAL...WITH TODAYS HIGHS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA. TONIGHTS TEMPERATURES WILL NOT COOL OFF
NEARLY AS MUCH AS WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS...AS WINDS
WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT THE SOUTHEAST...LEADING TO DOWNSLOPE WARMING
IN OUR EAST AND ALLOWING FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE.
THE MAIN PUSH OF WARM AIR IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE DURING THE DAY
ON TUESDAY...AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND BEGIN ADVECTING WARM
AIR DIRECTLY OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE REGION. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY COULD EASILY MAX OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AREA WIDE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

AN EXTENDED DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

NEAR LIFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE AS RAIN SHOWERS PUSH SOUTH ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY PUT CIGS AT OR
BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH LITTLE
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED. VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE SHARPLY REDUCED
AT TIMES DUE TO THE PRECIPITATION AND SOME FOG THAT HAS BEGUN TO
FORM ACROSS THE AREA...MEANING THERE WILL ALSO BE A GOOD CHANCE
THAT VSBYS WILL FALL BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS AT TIMES. CIGS SHOULD
BREAK UP AND LIFT TOMORROW MORNING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS
SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
BY MIDDAY TOMORROW.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...AR





000
FXUS63 KJKL 020530
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1230 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 911 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO TOSS IN SOME FOG THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED. WILL ALSO UPDATE THE ZFP
AND HWO TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF FOG. FREEZING RAIN THREAT APPEARS
TO BE MINIMAL AS BEST RETURNS WILL LIKELY OCCUR WELL AHEAD OF
AREAS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHING THE FREEZING MARK.
THUS...WILL LIMIT THE FORECAST TO JUST RAIN OR SNOW FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. AGAIN...ANY SNOW WILL BE MINOR AND HAVE
VERY LITTLE IMPACT. IN FACT...LATEST OBS ARE HANGING UP MUCH
HIGHER THAN EXPECTED TO THIS POINT...WITH MID TO UPPER 30S STILL
BE REPORTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA WITH LOW TO
MID 40S TO THE SOUTH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

UPDATED TO REMOVE POPS THROUGH THE EVENING AS WE REMAIN DRY
SLOTTED. HOWEVER...THE COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS
NORTHERN KENTUCKY WILL SLIP SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS...A MID LEVEL WAVE WILL PUSH EAST WITH
MOISTURE RAPIDLY INCREASING ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. THIS WILL MEAN
INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THE
FRONT SLIPS SOUTH...PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY HOLD ON THE
LONGEST IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. ADJUSTED THE POPS TO REFLECT THE
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES (CATEGORICAL) IN SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY...TRAILING OFF TO JUST CHANCE IN THE NORTH...WHERE THE
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH MUCH FASTER THIS EVENING. HRRR CONTINUES
TO SHOW A GOOD HANDLE ON PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THIS EVENING...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW IT FAIRLY CLOSELY WITH EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF
MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT. THE PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME COOLING FAST ENOUGH TO ALLOW
FOR MUCH FREEZING RAIN AND WITH GROUND TEMPERATURES FAIRLY WARM
GOING INTO THINGS TONIGHT...NOT NEARLY AS CONCERNED ABOUT ICING
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE HRRR WOULD SUGGEST
SOME PRECIPITATION RATES COULD GET FAIRLY GOOD LATER
TONIGHT...PERHAPS ALLOWING A QUICK CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. THIS WOULD SEEM REASONABLE AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR THIS AS THIS COULD PUT DOWN A QUICK COATING OF SNOW IN SOME
AREAS...LEADING TO SOME SLICK ROADS. AT THE SAME
TIME...TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL MUCH BELOW FREEZING
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...SO ANY SNOW MAY NOT LAST ON ROADS GIVEN THE
WARMTH TODAY. THUS...IT MAY JUST BE A VERY SHORT TERM ISSUE TO
CONTEND WITH OVERNIGHT FOR THOSE DRIVING ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. WE MAY CONSIDER DOING A
SHORT TERM SPS IF THE HEAVIER SNOW BURSTS APPEAR TO BE MORE LIKELY
LATER ON. ALL FORECAST CHANGES HAVE BEEN INCORPORATED INTO THE
UPDATE WITH THE MAIN IMPACTS TO JUST HAVE LESS FREEZING RAIN
POTENTIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

ZONAL FLOW WILL HOLD ON THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
FINALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE REGION BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN AND EVENTUALLY
SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF MONDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. AS ROAD
TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGHOUT TODAY...EXPECT THEM TO LAG BEHIND THE
AIR TEMPERATURE FALLING OVERNIGHT BY AT LEAST AN HOUR OR
TWO...THOUGH A FAIRLY STRONG WARM NOSE EXISTS BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z
ACROSS EASTERN KY. EXPECT THE FREEZING RAIN TO OCCUR AS THE RAIN IS
SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW...WITH SOME MIXING POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z. MOST
OF THE IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE NORTHER HALF OF THE
CWA...WHERE TEMPS WILL BE THE COLDEST.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE
HOLD DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. DRY AIR WILL QUICKLY CUT OFF ANY
LINGERING PRECIP BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS EASTERN KY...AND
ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKING UP OF THE ONGOING CLOUD COVER. UNDER LIGHT
WINDS...AND WITHOUT THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WE HAD
TODAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE AFTERNOON...ONLY
REACHING THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE VERY SHORT
LIVED UNFORTUNATELY...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST OF
THE REGION BY 6Z TUESDAY...WINDS BECOME MORE SRLY ONCE MORE...AND WE
START TO SEE THE INFLUENCES OF OUR NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.

CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PATTERN AND SHIFTING
NORTH EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. WITH STRONG SRLY FLOW
PULLING IN DECENT GULF MOISTURE...EXPECT PRECIP TO BEGIN WELL AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH POPS EXPECTED IN EASTERN KY AS EARLY AS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THOUGH SURFACE TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING BY TUESDAY MORNING...THIS STRONGER SRLY FLOW WILL INTRODUCE
AN IMPRESSIVELY LARGE WARM NOSE INTO THE LOWER LEVELS. ONCE
AGAIN...THIS LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SET UP FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN AT THE
ONSET THROUGH 12Z...EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO ALL RAIN AS TEMPS CONTINUE
TO WARM AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
PATTERN CONTINUING TO RULE ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK...BEFORE DAMPENING A BIT NEXT WEEKEND. A POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH OUT WEST WILL RESULT IN DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW SETTING
UP ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A STOUT
BAROCLINIC ZONE TO MEANDER THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH MUCH WARMER AND WETTER AIR
BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER SHARP COOL DOWN WILL
FOLLOW...WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION GOING OVER TO SNOW
BEFORE ENDING THE WEEK MUCH COLDER AND DRIER.

DETAILS ON WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SETS UP AND
LINGERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO VARY OVER THE COMING DAYS. AS
SUCH...HAVE CONTINUED TO STICK TO A GENERAL BLEND OF THE
SOLUTIONS...INCLUDING THE QPF AMOUNTS. IN GENERAL...THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO PAINT 2 TO 3 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY MORNING. THE BULK OF THIS
WILL FALL TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH HEAVIER
AMOUNTS STARTING OUT IN THE NORTHWEST...AND THEN EVENTUALLY
SPREADING TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. THIS WILL BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING CONCERNS AND WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS THREAT IN AN ONGOING HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITATION MAY START OUT AS A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND
RAIN FOR THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY...
BEFORE QUICKLY GOING OVER TO JUST RAIN AS MUCH WARMER AIR ADVECTS
INTO THE REGION. A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH DURING THE
DAY...WITH THE BETTER RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKELY FALLING WEST OF I-75
AND NEAR THE I-64 CORRIDOR...AS SOME DOWNSLOPING MAY CUT INTO
TOTALS TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW AND VERY
GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT...WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION GOING OVER TO
SNOW...WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE MODELS
ARE INDICATING THAT THE COLD AIR WILL MAKE IT IN BEFORE THE DEEPER
MOISTURE EXITS...IN PARTICULAR THE ECMWF...RESULTING IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR A GOOD WINDOW OF HEAVY WET SNOW. THIS IS NOT A
TYPICAL OUTCOME FOR THIS PATTERN...BUT WILL STILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED IN THE COMING DAYS.

AFTER ENJOYING HIGHS IN THE 50S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...READINGS
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 20S AND 30S FOR THURSDAY...WITH LOWS
BOTTOMING OUT NEAR THE 10 DEGREE MARK FRIDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL
RETURN TO THE 40S FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

NEAR LIFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE AS RAIN SHOWERS PUSH SOUTH ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY PUT CIGS AT OR
BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH LITTLE
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED. VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE SHARPLY REDUCED
AT TIMES DUE TO THE PRECIPITATION AND SOME FOG THAT HAS BEGUN TO
FORM ACROSS THE AREA...MEANING THERE WILL ALSO BE A GOOD CHANCE
THAT VSBYS WILL FALL BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS AT TIMES. CIGS SHOULD
BREAK UP AND LIFT TOMORROW MORNING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS
SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
BY MIDDAY TOMORROW.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...AR





000
FXUS63 KJKL 020530
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1230 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 911 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO TOSS IN SOME FOG THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED. WILL ALSO UPDATE THE ZFP
AND HWO TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF FOG. FREEZING RAIN THREAT APPEARS
TO BE MINIMAL AS BEST RETURNS WILL LIKELY OCCUR WELL AHEAD OF
AREAS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHING THE FREEZING MARK.
THUS...WILL LIMIT THE FORECAST TO JUST RAIN OR SNOW FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. AGAIN...ANY SNOW WILL BE MINOR AND HAVE
VERY LITTLE IMPACT. IN FACT...LATEST OBS ARE HANGING UP MUCH
HIGHER THAN EXPECTED TO THIS POINT...WITH MID TO UPPER 30S STILL
BE REPORTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA WITH LOW TO
MID 40S TO THE SOUTH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

UPDATED TO REMOVE POPS THROUGH THE EVENING AS WE REMAIN DRY
SLOTTED. HOWEVER...THE COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS
NORTHERN KENTUCKY WILL SLIP SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS...A MID LEVEL WAVE WILL PUSH EAST WITH
MOISTURE RAPIDLY INCREASING ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. THIS WILL MEAN
INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THE
FRONT SLIPS SOUTH...PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY HOLD ON THE
LONGEST IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. ADJUSTED THE POPS TO REFLECT THE
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES (CATEGORICAL) IN SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY...TRAILING OFF TO JUST CHANCE IN THE NORTH...WHERE THE
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH MUCH FASTER THIS EVENING. HRRR CONTINUES
TO SHOW A GOOD HANDLE ON PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THIS EVENING...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW IT FAIRLY CLOSELY WITH EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF
MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT. THE PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME COOLING FAST ENOUGH TO ALLOW
FOR MUCH FREEZING RAIN AND WITH GROUND TEMPERATURES FAIRLY WARM
GOING INTO THINGS TONIGHT...NOT NEARLY AS CONCERNED ABOUT ICING
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE HRRR WOULD SUGGEST
SOME PRECIPITATION RATES COULD GET FAIRLY GOOD LATER
TONIGHT...PERHAPS ALLOWING A QUICK CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. THIS WOULD SEEM REASONABLE AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR THIS AS THIS COULD PUT DOWN A QUICK COATING OF SNOW IN SOME
AREAS...LEADING TO SOME SLICK ROADS. AT THE SAME
TIME...TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL MUCH BELOW FREEZING
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...SO ANY SNOW MAY NOT LAST ON ROADS GIVEN THE
WARMTH TODAY. THUS...IT MAY JUST BE A VERY SHORT TERM ISSUE TO
CONTEND WITH OVERNIGHT FOR THOSE DRIVING ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. WE MAY CONSIDER DOING A
SHORT TERM SPS IF THE HEAVIER SNOW BURSTS APPEAR TO BE MORE LIKELY
LATER ON. ALL FORECAST CHANGES HAVE BEEN INCORPORATED INTO THE
UPDATE WITH THE MAIN IMPACTS TO JUST HAVE LESS FREEZING RAIN
POTENTIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

ZONAL FLOW WILL HOLD ON THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
FINALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE REGION BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN AND EVENTUALLY
SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF MONDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. AS ROAD
TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGHOUT TODAY...EXPECT THEM TO LAG BEHIND THE
AIR TEMPERATURE FALLING OVERNIGHT BY AT LEAST AN HOUR OR
TWO...THOUGH A FAIRLY STRONG WARM NOSE EXISTS BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z
ACROSS EASTERN KY. EXPECT THE FREEZING RAIN TO OCCUR AS THE RAIN IS
SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW...WITH SOME MIXING POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z. MOST
OF THE IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE NORTHER HALF OF THE
CWA...WHERE TEMPS WILL BE THE COLDEST.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE
HOLD DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. DRY AIR WILL QUICKLY CUT OFF ANY
LINGERING PRECIP BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS EASTERN KY...AND
ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKING UP OF THE ONGOING CLOUD COVER. UNDER LIGHT
WINDS...AND WITHOUT THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WE HAD
TODAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE AFTERNOON...ONLY
REACHING THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE VERY SHORT
LIVED UNFORTUNATELY...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST OF
THE REGION BY 6Z TUESDAY...WINDS BECOME MORE SRLY ONCE MORE...AND WE
START TO SEE THE INFLUENCES OF OUR NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.

CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PATTERN AND SHIFTING
NORTH EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. WITH STRONG SRLY FLOW
PULLING IN DECENT GULF MOISTURE...EXPECT PRECIP TO BEGIN WELL AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH POPS EXPECTED IN EASTERN KY AS EARLY AS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THOUGH SURFACE TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING BY TUESDAY MORNING...THIS STRONGER SRLY FLOW WILL INTRODUCE
AN IMPRESSIVELY LARGE WARM NOSE INTO THE LOWER LEVELS. ONCE
AGAIN...THIS LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SET UP FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN AT THE
ONSET THROUGH 12Z...EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO ALL RAIN AS TEMPS CONTINUE
TO WARM AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
PATTERN CONTINUING TO RULE ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK...BEFORE DAMPENING A BIT NEXT WEEKEND. A POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH OUT WEST WILL RESULT IN DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW SETTING
UP ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A STOUT
BAROCLINIC ZONE TO MEANDER THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH MUCH WARMER AND WETTER AIR
BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER SHARP COOL DOWN WILL
FOLLOW...WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION GOING OVER TO SNOW
BEFORE ENDING THE WEEK MUCH COLDER AND DRIER.

DETAILS ON WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SETS UP AND
LINGERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO VARY OVER THE COMING DAYS. AS
SUCH...HAVE CONTINUED TO STICK TO A GENERAL BLEND OF THE
SOLUTIONS...INCLUDING THE QPF AMOUNTS. IN GENERAL...THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO PAINT 2 TO 3 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY MORNING. THE BULK OF THIS
WILL FALL TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH HEAVIER
AMOUNTS STARTING OUT IN THE NORTHWEST...AND THEN EVENTUALLY
SPREADING TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. THIS WILL BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING CONCERNS AND WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS THREAT IN AN ONGOING HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITATION MAY START OUT AS A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND
RAIN FOR THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY...
BEFORE QUICKLY GOING OVER TO JUST RAIN AS MUCH WARMER AIR ADVECTS
INTO THE REGION. A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH DURING THE
DAY...WITH THE BETTER RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKELY FALLING WEST OF I-75
AND NEAR THE I-64 CORRIDOR...AS SOME DOWNSLOPING MAY CUT INTO
TOTALS TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW AND VERY
GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT...WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION GOING OVER TO
SNOW...WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE MODELS
ARE INDICATING THAT THE COLD AIR WILL MAKE IT IN BEFORE THE DEEPER
MOISTURE EXITS...IN PARTICULAR THE ECMWF...RESULTING IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR A GOOD WINDOW OF HEAVY WET SNOW. THIS IS NOT A
TYPICAL OUTCOME FOR THIS PATTERN...BUT WILL STILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED IN THE COMING DAYS.

AFTER ENJOYING HIGHS IN THE 50S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...READINGS
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 20S AND 30S FOR THURSDAY...WITH LOWS
BOTTOMING OUT NEAR THE 10 DEGREE MARK FRIDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL
RETURN TO THE 40S FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

NEAR LIFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE AS RAIN SHOWERS PUSH SOUTH ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY PUT CIGS AT OR
BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH LITTLE
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED. VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE SHARPLY REDUCED
AT TIMES DUE TO THE PRECIPITATION AND SOME FOG THAT HAS BEGUN TO
FORM ACROSS THE AREA...MEANING THERE WILL ALSO BE A GOOD CHANCE
THAT VSBYS WILL FALL BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS AT TIMES. CIGS SHOULD
BREAK UP AND LIFT TOMORROW MORNING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS
SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
BY MIDDAY TOMORROW.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...AR




000
FXUS63 KJKL 020530
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1230 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 911 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO TOSS IN SOME FOG THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED. WILL ALSO UPDATE THE ZFP
AND HWO TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF FOG. FREEZING RAIN THREAT APPEARS
TO BE MINIMAL AS BEST RETURNS WILL LIKELY OCCUR WELL AHEAD OF
AREAS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHING THE FREEZING MARK.
THUS...WILL LIMIT THE FORECAST TO JUST RAIN OR SNOW FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. AGAIN...ANY SNOW WILL BE MINOR AND HAVE
VERY LITTLE IMPACT. IN FACT...LATEST OBS ARE HANGING UP MUCH
HIGHER THAN EXPECTED TO THIS POINT...WITH MID TO UPPER 30S STILL
BE REPORTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA WITH LOW TO
MID 40S TO THE SOUTH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

UPDATED TO REMOVE POPS THROUGH THE EVENING AS WE REMAIN DRY
SLOTTED. HOWEVER...THE COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS
NORTHERN KENTUCKY WILL SLIP SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS...A MID LEVEL WAVE WILL PUSH EAST WITH
MOISTURE RAPIDLY INCREASING ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. THIS WILL MEAN
INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THE
FRONT SLIPS SOUTH...PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY HOLD ON THE
LONGEST IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. ADJUSTED THE POPS TO REFLECT THE
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES (CATEGORICAL) IN SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY...TRAILING OFF TO JUST CHANCE IN THE NORTH...WHERE THE
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH MUCH FASTER THIS EVENING. HRRR CONTINUES
TO SHOW A GOOD HANDLE ON PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THIS EVENING...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW IT FAIRLY CLOSELY WITH EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF
MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT. THE PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME COOLING FAST ENOUGH TO ALLOW
FOR MUCH FREEZING RAIN AND WITH GROUND TEMPERATURES FAIRLY WARM
GOING INTO THINGS TONIGHT...NOT NEARLY AS CONCERNED ABOUT ICING
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE HRRR WOULD SUGGEST
SOME PRECIPITATION RATES COULD GET FAIRLY GOOD LATER
TONIGHT...PERHAPS ALLOWING A QUICK CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. THIS WOULD SEEM REASONABLE AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR THIS AS THIS COULD PUT DOWN A QUICK COATING OF SNOW IN SOME
AREAS...LEADING TO SOME SLICK ROADS. AT THE SAME
TIME...TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL MUCH BELOW FREEZING
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...SO ANY SNOW MAY NOT LAST ON ROADS GIVEN THE
WARMTH TODAY. THUS...IT MAY JUST BE A VERY SHORT TERM ISSUE TO
CONTEND WITH OVERNIGHT FOR THOSE DRIVING ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. WE MAY CONSIDER DOING A
SHORT TERM SPS IF THE HEAVIER SNOW BURSTS APPEAR TO BE MORE LIKELY
LATER ON. ALL FORECAST CHANGES HAVE BEEN INCORPORATED INTO THE
UPDATE WITH THE MAIN IMPACTS TO JUST HAVE LESS FREEZING RAIN
POTENTIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

ZONAL FLOW WILL HOLD ON THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
FINALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE REGION BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN AND EVENTUALLY
SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF MONDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. AS ROAD
TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGHOUT TODAY...EXPECT THEM TO LAG BEHIND THE
AIR TEMPERATURE FALLING OVERNIGHT BY AT LEAST AN HOUR OR
TWO...THOUGH A FAIRLY STRONG WARM NOSE EXISTS BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z
ACROSS EASTERN KY. EXPECT THE FREEZING RAIN TO OCCUR AS THE RAIN IS
SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW...WITH SOME MIXING POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z. MOST
OF THE IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE NORTHER HALF OF THE
CWA...WHERE TEMPS WILL BE THE COLDEST.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE
HOLD DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. DRY AIR WILL QUICKLY CUT OFF ANY
LINGERING PRECIP BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS EASTERN KY...AND
ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKING UP OF THE ONGOING CLOUD COVER. UNDER LIGHT
WINDS...AND WITHOUT THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WE HAD
TODAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE AFTERNOON...ONLY
REACHING THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE VERY SHORT
LIVED UNFORTUNATELY...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST OF
THE REGION BY 6Z TUESDAY...WINDS BECOME MORE SRLY ONCE MORE...AND WE
START TO SEE THE INFLUENCES OF OUR NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.

CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PATTERN AND SHIFTING
NORTH EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. WITH STRONG SRLY FLOW
PULLING IN DECENT GULF MOISTURE...EXPECT PRECIP TO BEGIN WELL AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH POPS EXPECTED IN EASTERN KY AS EARLY AS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THOUGH SURFACE TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING BY TUESDAY MORNING...THIS STRONGER SRLY FLOW WILL INTRODUCE
AN IMPRESSIVELY LARGE WARM NOSE INTO THE LOWER LEVELS. ONCE
AGAIN...THIS LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SET UP FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN AT THE
ONSET THROUGH 12Z...EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO ALL RAIN AS TEMPS CONTINUE
TO WARM AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
PATTERN CONTINUING TO RULE ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK...BEFORE DAMPENING A BIT NEXT WEEKEND. A POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH OUT WEST WILL RESULT IN DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW SETTING
UP ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A STOUT
BAROCLINIC ZONE TO MEANDER THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH MUCH WARMER AND WETTER AIR
BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER SHARP COOL DOWN WILL
FOLLOW...WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION GOING OVER TO SNOW
BEFORE ENDING THE WEEK MUCH COLDER AND DRIER.

DETAILS ON WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SETS UP AND
LINGERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO VARY OVER THE COMING DAYS. AS
SUCH...HAVE CONTINUED TO STICK TO A GENERAL BLEND OF THE
SOLUTIONS...INCLUDING THE QPF AMOUNTS. IN GENERAL...THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO PAINT 2 TO 3 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY MORNING. THE BULK OF THIS
WILL FALL TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH HEAVIER
AMOUNTS STARTING OUT IN THE NORTHWEST...AND THEN EVENTUALLY
SPREADING TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. THIS WILL BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING CONCERNS AND WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS THREAT IN AN ONGOING HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITATION MAY START OUT AS A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND
RAIN FOR THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY...
BEFORE QUICKLY GOING OVER TO JUST RAIN AS MUCH WARMER AIR ADVECTS
INTO THE REGION. A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH DURING THE
DAY...WITH THE BETTER RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKELY FALLING WEST OF I-75
AND NEAR THE I-64 CORRIDOR...AS SOME DOWNSLOPING MAY CUT INTO
TOTALS TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW AND VERY
GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT...WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION GOING OVER TO
SNOW...WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE MODELS
ARE INDICATING THAT THE COLD AIR WILL MAKE IT IN BEFORE THE DEEPER
MOISTURE EXITS...IN PARTICULAR THE ECMWF...RESULTING IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR A GOOD WINDOW OF HEAVY WET SNOW. THIS IS NOT A
TYPICAL OUTCOME FOR THIS PATTERN...BUT WILL STILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED IN THE COMING DAYS.

AFTER ENJOYING HIGHS IN THE 50S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...READINGS
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 20S AND 30S FOR THURSDAY...WITH LOWS
BOTTOMING OUT NEAR THE 10 DEGREE MARK FRIDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL
RETURN TO THE 40S FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

NEAR LIFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE AS RAIN SHOWERS PUSH SOUTH ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY PUT CIGS AT OR
BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH LITTLE
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED. VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE SHARPLY REDUCED
AT TIMES DUE TO THE PRECIPITATION AND SOME FOG THAT HAS BEGUN TO
FORM ACROSS THE AREA...MEANING THERE WILL ALSO BE A GOOD CHANCE
THAT VSBYS WILL FALL BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS AT TIMES. CIGS SHOULD
BREAK UP AND LIFT TOMORROW MORNING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS
SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
BY MIDDAY TOMORROW.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...AR





000
FXUS63 KJKL 020530
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1230 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 911 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO TOSS IN SOME FOG THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED. WILL ALSO UPDATE THE ZFP
AND HWO TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF FOG. FREEZING RAIN THREAT APPEARS
TO BE MINIMAL AS BEST RETURNS WILL LIKELY OCCUR WELL AHEAD OF
AREAS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHING THE FREEZING MARK.
THUS...WILL LIMIT THE FORECAST TO JUST RAIN OR SNOW FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. AGAIN...ANY SNOW WILL BE MINOR AND HAVE
VERY LITTLE IMPACT. IN FACT...LATEST OBS ARE HANGING UP MUCH
HIGHER THAN EXPECTED TO THIS POINT...WITH MID TO UPPER 30S STILL
BE REPORTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA WITH LOW TO
MID 40S TO THE SOUTH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

UPDATED TO REMOVE POPS THROUGH THE EVENING AS WE REMAIN DRY
SLOTTED. HOWEVER...THE COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS
NORTHERN KENTUCKY WILL SLIP SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS...A MID LEVEL WAVE WILL PUSH EAST WITH
MOISTURE RAPIDLY INCREASING ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. THIS WILL MEAN
INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THE
FRONT SLIPS SOUTH...PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY HOLD ON THE
LONGEST IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. ADJUSTED THE POPS TO REFLECT THE
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES (CATEGORICAL) IN SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY...TRAILING OFF TO JUST CHANCE IN THE NORTH...WHERE THE
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH MUCH FASTER THIS EVENING. HRRR CONTINUES
TO SHOW A GOOD HANDLE ON PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THIS EVENING...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW IT FAIRLY CLOSELY WITH EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF
MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT. THE PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME COOLING FAST ENOUGH TO ALLOW
FOR MUCH FREEZING RAIN AND WITH GROUND TEMPERATURES FAIRLY WARM
GOING INTO THINGS TONIGHT...NOT NEARLY AS CONCERNED ABOUT ICING
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE HRRR WOULD SUGGEST
SOME PRECIPITATION RATES COULD GET FAIRLY GOOD LATER
TONIGHT...PERHAPS ALLOWING A QUICK CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. THIS WOULD SEEM REASONABLE AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR THIS AS THIS COULD PUT DOWN A QUICK COATING OF SNOW IN SOME
AREAS...LEADING TO SOME SLICK ROADS. AT THE SAME
TIME...TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL MUCH BELOW FREEZING
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...SO ANY SNOW MAY NOT LAST ON ROADS GIVEN THE
WARMTH TODAY. THUS...IT MAY JUST BE A VERY SHORT TERM ISSUE TO
CONTEND WITH OVERNIGHT FOR THOSE DRIVING ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. WE MAY CONSIDER DOING A
SHORT TERM SPS IF THE HEAVIER SNOW BURSTS APPEAR TO BE MORE LIKELY
LATER ON. ALL FORECAST CHANGES HAVE BEEN INCORPORATED INTO THE
UPDATE WITH THE MAIN IMPACTS TO JUST HAVE LESS FREEZING RAIN
POTENTIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

ZONAL FLOW WILL HOLD ON THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
FINALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE REGION BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN AND EVENTUALLY
SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF MONDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. AS ROAD
TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGHOUT TODAY...EXPECT THEM TO LAG BEHIND THE
AIR TEMPERATURE FALLING OVERNIGHT BY AT LEAST AN HOUR OR
TWO...THOUGH A FAIRLY STRONG WARM NOSE EXISTS BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z
ACROSS EASTERN KY. EXPECT THE FREEZING RAIN TO OCCUR AS THE RAIN IS
SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW...WITH SOME MIXING POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z. MOST
OF THE IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE NORTHER HALF OF THE
CWA...WHERE TEMPS WILL BE THE COLDEST.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE
HOLD DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. DRY AIR WILL QUICKLY CUT OFF ANY
LINGERING PRECIP BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS EASTERN KY...AND
ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKING UP OF THE ONGOING CLOUD COVER. UNDER LIGHT
WINDS...AND WITHOUT THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WE HAD
TODAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE AFTERNOON...ONLY
REACHING THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE VERY SHORT
LIVED UNFORTUNATELY...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST OF
THE REGION BY 6Z TUESDAY...WINDS BECOME MORE SRLY ONCE MORE...AND WE
START TO SEE THE INFLUENCES OF OUR NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.

CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PATTERN AND SHIFTING
NORTH EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. WITH STRONG SRLY FLOW
PULLING IN DECENT GULF MOISTURE...EXPECT PRECIP TO BEGIN WELL AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH POPS EXPECTED IN EASTERN KY AS EARLY AS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THOUGH SURFACE TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING BY TUESDAY MORNING...THIS STRONGER SRLY FLOW WILL INTRODUCE
AN IMPRESSIVELY LARGE WARM NOSE INTO THE LOWER LEVELS. ONCE
AGAIN...THIS LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SET UP FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN AT THE
ONSET THROUGH 12Z...EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO ALL RAIN AS TEMPS CONTINUE
TO WARM AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
PATTERN CONTINUING TO RULE ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK...BEFORE DAMPENING A BIT NEXT WEEKEND. A POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH OUT WEST WILL RESULT IN DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW SETTING
UP ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A STOUT
BAROCLINIC ZONE TO MEANDER THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH MUCH WARMER AND WETTER AIR
BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER SHARP COOL DOWN WILL
FOLLOW...WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION GOING OVER TO SNOW
BEFORE ENDING THE WEEK MUCH COLDER AND DRIER.

DETAILS ON WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SETS UP AND
LINGERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO VARY OVER THE COMING DAYS. AS
SUCH...HAVE CONTINUED TO STICK TO A GENERAL BLEND OF THE
SOLUTIONS...INCLUDING THE QPF AMOUNTS. IN GENERAL...THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO PAINT 2 TO 3 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY MORNING. THE BULK OF THIS
WILL FALL TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH HEAVIER
AMOUNTS STARTING OUT IN THE NORTHWEST...AND THEN EVENTUALLY
SPREADING TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. THIS WILL BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING CONCERNS AND WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS THREAT IN AN ONGOING HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITATION MAY START OUT AS A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND
RAIN FOR THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY...
BEFORE QUICKLY GOING OVER TO JUST RAIN AS MUCH WARMER AIR ADVECTS
INTO THE REGION. A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH DURING THE
DAY...WITH THE BETTER RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKELY FALLING WEST OF I-75
AND NEAR THE I-64 CORRIDOR...AS SOME DOWNSLOPING MAY CUT INTO
TOTALS TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW AND VERY
GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT...WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION GOING OVER TO
SNOW...WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE MODELS
ARE INDICATING THAT THE COLD AIR WILL MAKE IT IN BEFORE THE DEEPER
MOISTURE EXITS...IN PARTICULAR THE ECMWF...RESULTING IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR A GOOD WINDOW OF HEAVY WET SNOW. THIS IS NOT A
TYPICAL OUTCOME FOR THIS PATTERN...BUT WILL STILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED IN THE COMING DAYS.

AFTER ENJOYING HIGHS IN THE 50S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...READINGS
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 20S AND 30S FOR THURSDAY...WITH LOWS
BOTTOMING OUT NEAR THE 10 DEGREE MARK FRIDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL
RETURN TO THE 40S FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

NEAR LIFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE AS RAIN SHOWERS PUSH SOUTH ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY PUT CIGS AT OR
BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH LITTLE
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED. VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE SHARPLY REDUCED
AT TIMES DUE TO THE PRECIPITATION AND SOME FOG THAT HAS BEGUN TO
FORM ACROSS THE AREA...MEANING THERE WILL ALSO BE A GOOD CHANCE
THAT VSBYS WILL FALL BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS AT TIMES. CIGS SHOULD
BREAK UP AND LIFT TOMORROW MORNING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS
SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
BY MIDDAY TOMORROW.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...AR




000
FXUS63 KJKL 020211
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
911 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 911 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO TOSS IN SOME FOG THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED. WILL ALSO UPDATE THE ZFP
AND HWO TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF FOG. FREEZING RAIN THREAT APPEARS
TO BE MINIMAL AS BEST RETURNS WILL LIKELY OCCUR WELL AHEAD OF
AREAS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHING THE FREEZING MARK.
THUS...WILL LIMIT THE FORECAST TO JUST RAIN OR SNOW FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. AGAIN...ANY SNOW WILL BE MINOR AND HAVE
VERY LITTLE IMPACT. IN FACT...LATEST OBS ARE HANGING UP MUCH
HIGHER THAN EXPECTED TO THIS POINT...WITH MID TO UPPER 30S STILL
BE REPORTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA WITH LOW TO
MID 40S TO THE SOUTH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

UPDATED TO REMOVE POPS THROUGH THE EVENING AS WE REMAIN DRY
SLOTTED. HOWEVER...THE COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS
NORTHERN KENTUCKY WILL SLIP SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS...A MID LEVEL WAVE WILL PUSH EAST WITH
MOISTURE RAPIDLY INCREASING ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. THIS WILL MEAN
INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THE
FRONT SLIPS SOUTH...PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY HOLD ON THE
LONGEST IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. ADJUSTED THE POPS TO REFLECT THE
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES (CATEGORICAL) IN SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY...TRAILING OFF TO JUST CHANCE IN THE NORTH...WHERE THE
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH MUCH FASTER THIS EVENING. HRRR CONTINUES
TO SHOW A GOOD HANDLE ON PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THIS EVENING...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW IT FAIRLY CLOSELY WITH EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF
MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT. THE PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME COOLING FAST ENOUGH TO ALLOW
FOR MUCH FREEZING RAIN AND WITH GROUND TEMPERATURES FAIRLY WARM
GOING INTO THINGS TONIGHT...NOT NEARLY AS CONCERNED ABOUT ICING
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE HRRR WOULD SUGGEST
SOME PRECIPITATION RATES COULD GET FAIRLY GOOD LATER
TONIGHT...PERHAPS ALLOWING A QUICK CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. THIS WOULD SEEM REASONABLE AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR THIS AS THIS COULD PUT DOWN A QUICK COATING OF SNOW IN SOME
AREAS...LEADING TO SOME SLICK ROADS. AT THE SAME
TIME...TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL MUCH BELOW FREEZING
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...SO ANY SNOW MAY NOT LAST ON ROADS GIVEN THE
WARMTH TODAY. THUS...IT MAY JUST BE A VERY SHORT TERM ISSUE TO
CONTEND WITH OVERNIGHT FOR THOSE DRIVING ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. WE MAY CONSIDER DOING A
SHORT TERM SPS IF THE HEAVIER SNOW BURSTS APPEAR TO BE MORE LIKELY
LATER ON. ALL FORECAST CHANGES HAVE BEEN INCORPORATED INTO THE
UPDATE WITH THE MAIN IMPACTS TO JUST HAVE LESS FREEZING RAIN
POTENTIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

ZONAL FLOW WILL HOLD ON THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
FINALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE REGION BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN AND EVENTUALLY
SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF MONDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. AS ROAD
TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGHOUT TODAY...EXPECT THEM TO LAG BEHIND THE
AIR TEMPERATURE FALLING OVERNIGHT BY AT LEAST AN HOUR OR
TWO...THOUGH A FAIRLY STRONG WARM NOSE EXISTS BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z
ACROSS EASTERN KY. EXPECT THE FREEZING RAIN TO OCCUR AS THE RAIN IS
SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW...WITH SOME MIXING POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z. MOST
OF THE IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE NORTHER HALF OF THE
CWA...WHERE TEMPS WILL BE THE COLDEST.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE
HOLD DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. DRY AIR WILL QUICKLY CUT OFF ANY
LINGERING PRECIP BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS EASTERN KY...AND
ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKING UP OF THE ONGOING CLOUD COVER. UNDER LIGHT
WINDS...AND WITHOUT THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WE HAD
TODAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE AFTERNOON...ONLY
REACHING THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE VERY SHORT
LIVED UNFORTUNATELY...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST OF
THE REGION BY 6Z TUESDAY...WINDS BECOME MORE SRLY ONCE MORE...AND WE
START TO SEE THE INFLUENCES OF OUR NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.

CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PATTERN AND SHIFTING
NORTH EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. WITH STRONG SRLY FLOW
PULLING IN DECENT GULF MOISTURE...EXPECT PRECIP TO BEGIN WELL AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH POPS EXPECTED IN EASTERN KY AS EARLY AS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THOUGH SURFACE TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING BY TUESDAY MORNING...THIS STRONGER SRLY FLOW WILL INTRODUCE
AN IMPRESSIVELY LARGE WARM NOSE INTO THE LOWER LEVELS. ONCE
AGAIN...THIS LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SET UP FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN AT THE
ONSET THROUGH 12Z...EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO ALL RAIN AS TEMPS CONTINUE
TO WARM AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
PATTERN CONTINUING TO RULE ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK...BEFORE DAMPENING A BIT NEXT WEEKEND. A POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH OUT WEST WILL RESULT IN DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW SETTING
UP ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A STOUT
BAROCLINIC ZONE TO MEANDER THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH MUCH WARMER AND WETTER AIR
BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER SHARP COOL DOWN WILL
FOLLOW...WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION GOING OVER TO SNOW
BEFORE ENDING THE WEEK MUCH COLDER AND DRIER.

DETAILS ON WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SETS UP AND
LINGERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO VARY OVER THE COMING DAYS. AS
SUCH...HAVE CONTINUED TO STICK TO A GENERAL BLEND OF THE
SOLUTIONS...INCLUDING THE QPF AMOUNTS. IN GENERAL...THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO PAINT 2 TO 3 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY MORNING. THE BULK OF THIS
WILL FALL TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH HEAVIER
AMOUNTS STARTING OUT IN THE NORTHWEST...AND THEN EVENTUALLY
SPREADING TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. THIS WILL BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING CONCERNS AND WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS THREAT IN AN ONGOING HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITATION MAY START OUT AS A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND
RAIN FOR THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY...
BEFORE QUICKLY GOING OVER TO JUST RAIN AS MUCH WARMER AIR ADVECTS
INTO THE REGION. A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH DURING THE
DAY...WITH THE BETTER RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKELY FALLING WEST OF I-75
AND NEAR THE I-64 CORRIDOR...AS SOME DOWNSLOPING MAY CUT INTO
TOTALS TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW AND VERY
GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT...WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION GOING OVER TO
SNOW...WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE MODELS
ARE INDICATING THAT THE COLD AIR WILL MAKE IT IN BEFORE THE DEEPER
MOISTURE EXITS...IN PARTICULAR THE ECMWF...RESULTING IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR A GOOD WINDOW OF HEAVY WET SNOW. THIS IS NOT A
TYPICAL OUTCOME FOR THIS PATTERN...BUT WILL STILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED IN THE COMING DAYS.

AFTER ENJOYING HIGHS IN THE 50S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...READINGS
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 20S AND 30S FOR THURSDAY...WITH LOWS
BOTTOMING OUT NEAR THE 10 DEGREE MARK FRIDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL
RETURN TO THE 40S FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

NEAR LIFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY PUT CIGS AT OR BELOW AIRPORT
MINIMUMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH LITTLE IMPROVEMENT
EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...VISIBILITIES WILL BE SHARPLY REDUCED AT
TIMES...ALSO WITH A CHANCE TO GO UNDER AIRPORT MINIMUMS AT TIMES.
THIS WILL YIELD A VERY BAD CONDITIONS FOR AVIATION CUSTOMERS. CIGS
SHOULD BREAK UP AND LIFT TOMORROW MORNING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS BY MIDDAY TOMORROW.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...KAS





000
FXUS63 KJKL 020211
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
911 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 911 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO TOSS IN SOME FOG THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED. WILL ALSO UPDATE THE ZFP
AND HWO TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF FOG. FREEZING RAIN THREAT APPEARS
TO BE MINIMAL AS BEST RETURNS WILL LIKELY OCCUR WELL AHEAD OF
AREAS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHING THE FREEZING MARK.
THUS...WILL LIMIT THE FORECAST TO JUST RAIN OR SNOW FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. AGAIN...ANY SNOW WILL BE MINOR AND HAVE
VERY LITTLE IMPACT. IN FACT...LATEST OBS ARE HANGING UP MUCH
HIGHER THAN EXPECTED TO THIS POINT...WITH MID TO UPPER 30S STILL
BE REPORTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA WITH LOW TO
MID 40S TO THE SOUTH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

UPDATED TO REMOVE POPS THROUGH THE EVENING AS WE REMAIN DRY
SLOTTED. HOWEVER...THE COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS
NORTHERN KENTUCKY WILL SLIP SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS...A MID LEVEL WAVE WILL PUSH EAST WITH
MOISTURE RAPIDLY INCREASING ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. THIS WILL MEAN
INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THE
FRONT SLIPS SOUTH...PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY HOLD ON THE
LONGEST IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. ADJUSTED THE POPS TO REFLECT THE
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES (CATEGORICAL) IN SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY...TRAILING OFF TO JUST CHANCE IN THE NORTH...WHERE THE
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH MUCH FASTER THIS EVENING. HRRR CONTINUES
TO SHOW A GOOD HANDLE ON PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THIS EVENING...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW IT FAIRLY CLOSELY WITH EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF
MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT. THE PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME COOLING FAST ENOUGH TO ALLOW
FOR MUCH FREEZING RAIN AND WITH GROUND TEMPERATURES FAIRLY WARM
GOING INTO THINGS TONIGHT...NOT NEARLY AS CONCERNED ABOUT ICING
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE HRRR WOULD SUGGEST
SOME PRECIPITATION RATES COULD GET FAIRLY GOOD LATER
TONIGHT...PERHAPS ALLOWING A QUICK CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. THIS WOULD SEEM REASONABLE AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR THIS AS THIS COULD PUT DOWN A QUICK COATING OF SNOW IN SOME
AREAS...LEADING TO SOME SLICK ROADS. AT THE SAME
TIME...TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL MUCH BELOW FREEZING
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...SO ANY SNOW MAY NOT LAST ON ROADS GIVEN THE
WARMTH TODAY. THUS...IT MAY JUST BE A VERY SHORT TERM ISSUE TO
CONTEND WITH OVERNIGHT FOR THOSE DRIVING ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. WE MAY CONSIDER DOING A
SHORT TERM SPS IF THE HEAVIER SNOW BURSTS APPEAR TO BE MORE LIKELY
LATER ON. ALL FORECAST CHANGES HAVE BEEN INCORPORATED INTO THE
UPDATE WITH THE MAIN IMPACTS TO JUST HAVE LESS FREEZING RAIN
POTENTIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

ZONAL FLOW WILL HOLD ON THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
FINALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE REGION BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN AND EVENTUALLY
SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF MONDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. AS ROAD
TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGHOUT TODAY...EXPECT THEM TO LAG BEHIND THE
AIR TEMPERATURE FALLING OVERNIGHT BY AT LEAST AN HOUR OR
TWO...THOUGH A FAIRLY STRONG WARM NOSE EXISTS BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z
ACROSS EASTERN KY. EXPECT THE FREEZING RAIN TO OCCUR AS THE RAIN IS
SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW...WITH SOME MIXING POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z. MOST
OF THE IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE NORTHER HALF OF THE
CWA...WHERE TEMPS WILL BE THE COLDEST.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE
HOLD DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. DRY AIR WILL QUICKLY CUT OFF ANY
LINGERING PRECIP BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS EASTERN KY...AND
ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKING UP OF THE ONGOING CLOUD COVER. UNDER LIGHT
WINDS...AND WITHOUT THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WE HAD
TODAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE AFTERNOON...ONLY
REACHING THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE VERY SHORT
LIVED UNFORTUNATELY...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST OF
THE REGION BY 6Z TUESDAY...WINDS BECOME MORE SRLY ONCE MORE...AND WE
START TO SEE THE INFLUENCES OF OUR NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.

CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PATTERN AND SHIFTING
NORTH EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. WITH STRONG SRLY FLOW
PULLING IN DECENT GULF MOISTURE...EXPECT PRECIP TO BEGIN WELL AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH POPS EXPECTED IN EASTERN KY AS EARLY AS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THOUGH SURFACE TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING BY TUESDAY MORNING...THIS STRONGER SRLY FLOW WILL INTRODUCE
AN IMPRESSIVELY LARGE WARM NOSE INTO THE LOWER LEVELS. ONCE
AGAIN...THIS LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SET UP FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN AT THE
ONSET THROUGH 12Z...EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO ALL RAIN AS TEMPS CONTINUE
TO WARM AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
PATTERN CONTINUING TO RULE ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK...BEFORE DAMPENING A BIT NEXT WEEKEND. A POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH OUT WEST WILL RESULT IN DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW SETTING
UP ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A STOUT
BAROCLINIC ZONE TO MEANDER THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH MUCH WARMER AND WETTER AIR
BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER SHARP COOL DOWN WILL
FOLLOW...WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION GOING OVER TO SNOW
BEFORE ENDING THE WEEK MUCH COLDER AND DRIER.

DETAILS ON WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SETS UP AND
LINGERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO VARY OVER THE COMING DAYS. AS
SUCH...HAVE CONTINUED TO STICK TO A GENERAL BLEND OF THE
SOLUTIONS...INCLUDING THE QPF AMOUNTS. IN GENERAL...THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO PAINT 2 TO 3 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY MORNING. THE BULK OF THIS
WILL FALL TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH HEAVIER
AMOUNTS STARTING OUT IN THE NORTHWEST...AND THEN EVENTUALLY
SPREADING TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. THIS WILL BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING CONCERNS AND WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS THREAT IN AN ONGOING HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITATION MAY START OUT AS A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND
RAIN FOR THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY...
BEFORE QUICKLY GOING OVER TO JUST RAIN AS MUCH WARMER AIR ADVECTS
INTO THE REGION. A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH DURING THE
DAY...WITH THE BETTER RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKELY FALLING WEST OF I-75
AND NEAR THE I-64 CORRIDOR...AS SOME DOWNSLOPING MAY CUT INTO
TOTALS TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW AND VERY
GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT...WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION GOING OVER TO
SNOW...WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE MODELS
ARE INDICATING THAT THE COLD AIR WILL MAKE IT IN BEFORE THE DEEPER
MOISTURE EXITS...IN PARTICULAR THE ECMWF...RESULTING IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR A GOOD WINDOW OF HEAVY WET SNOW. THIS IS NOT A
TYPICAL OUTCOME FOR THIS PATTERN...BUT WILL STILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED IN THE COMING DAYS.

AFTER ENJOYING HIGHS IN THE 50S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...READINGS
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 20S AND 30S FOR THURSDAY...WITH LOWS
BOTTOMING OUT NEAR THE 10 DEGREE MARK FRIDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL
RETURN TO THE 40S FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

NEAR LIFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY PUT CIGS AT OR BELOW AIRPORT
MINIMUMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH LITTLE IMPROVEMENT
EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...VISIBILITIES WILL BE SHARPLY REDUCED AT
TIMES...ALSO WITH A CHANCE TO GO UNDER AIRPORT MINIMUMS AT TIMES.
THIS WILL YIELD A VERY BAD CONDITIONS FOR AVIATION CUSTOMERS. CIGS
SHOULD BREAK UP AND LIFT TOMORROW MORNING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS BY MIDDAY TOMORROW.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...KAS




000
FXUS63 KJKL 020211
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
911 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 911 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO TOSS IN SOME FOG THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED. WILL ALSO UPDATE THE ZFP
AND HWO TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF FOG. FREEZING RAIN THREAT APPEARS
TO BE MINIMAL AS BEST RETURNS WILL LIKELY OCCUR WELL AHEAD OF
AREAS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHING THE FREEZING MARK.
THUS...WILL LIMIT THE FORECAST TO JUST RAIN OR SNOW FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. AGAIN...ANY SNOW WILL BE MINOR AND HAVE
VERY LITTLE IMPACT. IN FACT...LATEST OBS ARE HANGING UP MUCH
HIGHER THAN EXPECTED TO THIS POINT...WITH MID TO UPPER 30S STILL
BE REPORTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA WITH LOW TO
MID 40S TO THE SOUTH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

UPDATED TO REMOVE POPS THROUGH THE EVENING AS WE REMAIN DRY
SLOTTED. HOWEVER...THE COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS
NORTHERN KENTUCKY WILL SLIP SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS...A MID LEVEL WAVE WILL PUSH EAST WITH
MOISTURE RAPIDLY INCREASING ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. THIS WILL MEAN
INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THE
FRONT SLIPS SOUTH...PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY HOLD ON THE
LONGEST IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. ADJUSTED THE POPS TO REFLECT THE
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES (CATEGORICAL) IN SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY...TRAILING OFF TO JUST CHANCE IN THE NORTH...WHERE THE
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH MUCH FASTER THIS EVENING. HRRR CONTINUES
TO SHOW A GOOD HANDLE ON PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THIS EVENING...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW IT FAIRLY CLOSELY WITH EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF
MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT. THE PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME COOLING FAST ENOUGH TO ALLOW
FOR MUCH FREEZING RAIN AND WITH GROUND TEMPERATURES FAIRLY WARM
GOING INTO THINGS TONIGHT...NOT NEARLY AS CONCERNED ABOUT ICING
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE HRRR WOULD SUGGEST
SOME PRECIPITATION RATES COULD GET FAIRLY GOOD LATER
TONIGHT...PERHAPS ALLOWING A QUICK CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. THIS WOULD SEEM REASONABLE AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR THIS AS THIS COULD PUT DOWN A QUICK COATING OF SNOW IN SOME
AREAS...LEADING TO SOME SLICK ROADS. AT THE SAME
TIME...TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL MUCH BELOW FREEZING
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...SO ANY SNOW MAY NOT LAST ON ROADS GIVEN THE
WARMTH TODAY. THUS...IT MAY JUST BE A VERY SHORT TERM ISSUE TO
CONTEND WITH OVERNIGHT FOR THOSE DRIVING ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. WE MAY CONSIDER DOING A
SHORT TERM SPS IF THE HEAVIER SNOW BURSTS APPEAR TO BE MORE LIKELY
LATER ON. ALL FORECAST CHANGES HAVE BEEN INCORPORATED INTO THE
UPDATE WITH THE MAIN IMPACTS TO JUST HAVE LESS FREEZING RAIN
POTENTIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

ZONAL FLOW WILL HOLD ON THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
FINALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE REGION BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN AND EVENTUALLY
SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF MONDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. AS ROAD
TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGHOUT TODAY...EXPECT THEM TO LAG BEHIND THE
AIR TEMPERATURE FALLING OVERNIGHT BY AT LEAST AN HOUR OR
TWO...THOUGH A FAIRLY STRONG WARM NOSE EXISTS BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z
ACROSS EASTERN KY. EXPECT THE FREEZING RAIN TO OCCUR AS THE RAIN IS
SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW...WITH SOME MIXING POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z. MOST
OF THE IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE NORTHER HALF OF THE
CWA...WHERE TEMPS WILL BE THE COLDEST.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE
HOLD DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. DRY AIR WILL QUICKLY CUT OFF ANY
LINGERING PRECIP BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS EASTERN KY...AND
ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKING UP OF THE ONGOING CLOUD COVER. UNDER LIGHT
WINDS...AND WITHOUT THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WE HAD
TODAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE AFTERNOON...ONLY
REACHING THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE VERY SHORT
LIVED UNFORTUNATELY...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST OF
THE REGION BY 6Z TUESDAY...WINDS BECOME MORE SRLY ONCE MORE...AND WE
START TO SEE THE INFLUENCES OF OUR NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.

CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PATTERN AND SHIFTING
NORTH EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. WITH STRONG SRLY FLOW
PULLING IN DECENT GULF MOISTURE...EXPECT PRECIP TO BEGIN WELL AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH POPS EXPECTED IN EASTERN KY AS EARLY AS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THOUGH SURFACE TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING BY TUESDAY MORNING...THIS STRONGER SRLY FLOW WILL INTRODUCE
AN IMPRESSIVELY LARGE WARM NOSE INTO THE LOWER LEVELS. ONCE
AGAIN...THIS LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SET UP FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN AT THE
ONSET THROUGH 12Z...EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO ALL RAIN AS TEMPS CONTINUE
TO WARM AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
PATTERN CONTINUING TO RULE ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK...BEFORE DAMPENING A BIT NEXT WEEKEND. A POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH OUT WEST WILL RESULT IN DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW SETTING
UP ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A STOUT
BAROCLINIC ZONE TO MEANDER THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH MUCH WARMER AND WETTER AIR
BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER SHARP COOL DOWN WILL
FOLLOW...WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION GOING OVER TO SNOW
BEFORE ENDING THE WEEK MUCH COLDER AND DRIER.

DETAILS ON WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SETS UP AND
LINGERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO VARY OVER THE COMING DAYS. AS
SUCH...HAVE CONTINUED TO STICK TO A GENERAL BLEND OF THE
SOLUTIONS...INCLUDING THE QPF AMOUNTS. IN GENERAL...THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO PAINT 2 TO 3 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY MORNING. THE BULK OF THIS
WILL FALL TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH HEAVIER
AMOUNTS STARTING OUT IN THE NORTHWEST...AND THEN EVENTUALLY
SPREADING TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. THIS WILL BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING CONCERNS AND WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS THREAT IN AN ONGOING HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITATION MAY START OUT AS A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND
RAIN FOR THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY...
BEFORE QUICKLY GOING OVER TO JUST RAIN AS MUCH WARMER AIR ADVECTS
INTO THE REGION. A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH DURING THE
DAY...WITH THE BETTER RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKELY FALLING WEST OF I-75
AND NEAR THE I-64 CORRIDOR...AS SOME DOWNSLOPING MAY CUT INTO
TOTALS TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW AND VERY
GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT...WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION GOING OVER TO
SNOW...WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE MODELS
ARE INDICATING THAT THE COLD AIR WILL MAKE IT IN BEFORE THE DEEPER
MOISTURE EXITS...IN PARTICULAR THE ECMWF...RESULTING IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR A GOOD WINDOW OF HEAVY WET SNOW. THIS IS NOT A
TYPICAL OUTCOME FOR THIS PATTERN...BUT WILL STILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED IN THE COMING DAYS.

AFTER ENJOYING HIGHS IN THE 50S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...READINGS
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 20S AND 30S FOR THURSDAY...WITH LOWS
BOTTOMING OUT NEAR THE 10 DEGREE MARK FRIDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL
RETURN TO THE 40S FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

NEAR LIFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY PUT CIGS AT OR BELOW AIRPORT
MINIMUMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH LITTLE IMPROVEMENT
EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...VISIBILITIES WILL BE SHARPLY REDUCED AT
TIMES...ALSO WITH A CHANCE TO GO UNDER AIRPORT MINIMUMS AT TIMES.
THIS WILL YIELD A VERY BAD CONDITIONS FOR AVIATION CUSTOMERS. CIGS
SHOULD BREAK UP AND LIFT TOMORROW MORNING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS BY MIDDAY TOMORROW.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...KAS




000
FXUS63 KJKL 012341
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
641 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 641 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

UPDATED TO REMOVE POPS THROUGH THE EVENING AS WE REMAIN DRY
SLOTTED. HOWEVER...THE COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS
NORTHERN KENTUCKY WILL SLIP SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS...A MID LEVEL WAVE WILL PUSH EAST WITH
MOISTURE RAPIDLY INCREASING ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. THIS WILL MEAN
INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THE
FRONT SLIPS SOUTH...PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY HOLD ON THE
LONGEST IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. ADJUSTED THE POPS TO REFLECT THE
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES (CATEGORICAL) IN SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY...TRAILING OFF TO JUST CHANCE IN THE NORTH...WHERE THE
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH MUCH FASTER THIS EVENING. HRRR CONTINUES
TO SHOW A GOOD HANDLE ON PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THIS EVENING...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW IT FAIRLY CLOSELY WITH EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF
MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT. THE PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME COOLING FAST ENOUGH TO ALLOW
FOR MUCH FREEZING RAIN AND WITH GROUND TEMPERATURES FAIRLY WARM
GOING INTO THINGS TONIGHT...NOT NEARLY AS CONCERNED ABOUT ICING
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE HRRR WOULD SUGGEST
SOME PRECIPITATION RATES COULD GET FAIRLY GOOD LATER
TONIGHT...PERHAPS ALLOWING A QUICK CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. THIS WOULD SEEM REASONABLE AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR THIS AS THIS COULD PUT DOWN A QUICK COATING OF SNOW IN SOME
AREAS...LEADING TO SOME SLICK ROADS. AT THE SAME
TIME...TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL MUCH BELOW FREEZING
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...SO ANY SNOW MAY NOT LAST ON ROADS GIVEN THE
WARMTH TODAY. THUS...IT MAY JUST BE A VERY SHORT TERM ISSUE TO
CONTEND WITH OVERNIGHT FOR THOSE DRIVING ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. WE MAY CONSIDER DOING A
SHORT TERM SPS IF THE HEAVIER SNOW BURSTS APPEAR TO BE MORE LIKELY
LATER ON. ALL FORECAST CHANGES HAVE BEEN INCORPORATED INTO THE
UPDATE WITH THE MAIN IMPACTS TO JUST HAVE LESS FREEZING RAIN
POTENTIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

ZONAL FLOW WILL HOLD ON THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
FINALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE REGION BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN AND EVENTUALLY
SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF MONDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. AS ROAD
TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGHOUT TODAY...EXPECT THEM TO LAG BEHIND THE
AIR TEMPERATURE FALLING OVERNIGHT BY AT LEAST AN HOUR OR
TWO...THOUGH A FAIRLY STRONG WARM NOSE EXISTS BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z
ACROSS EASTERN KY. EXPECT THE FREEZING RAIN TO OCCUR AS THE RAIN IS
SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW...WITH SOME MIXING POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z. MOST
OF THE IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE NORTHER HALF OF THE
CWA...WHERE TEMPS WILL BE THE COLDEST.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE
HOLD DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. DRY AIR WILL QUICKLY CUT OFF ANY
LINGERING PRECIP BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS EASTERN KY...AND
ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKING UP OF THE ONGOING CLOUD COVER. UNDER LIGHT
WINDS...AND WITHOUT THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WE HAD
TODAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE AFTERNOON...ONLY
REACHING THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE VERY SHORT
LIVED UNFORTUNATELY...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST OF
THE REGION BY 6Z TUESDAY...WINDS BECOME MORE SRLY ONCE MORE...AND WE
START TO SEE THE INFLUENCES OF OUR NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.

CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PATTERN AND SHIFTING
NORTH EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. WITH STRONG SRLY FLOW
PULLING IN DECENT GULF MOISTURE...EXPECT PRECIP TO BEGIN WELL AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH POPS EXPECTED IN EASTERN KY AS EARLY AS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THOUGH SURFACE TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING BY TUESDAY MORNING...THIS STRONGER SRLY FLOW WILL INTRODUCE
AN IMPRESSIVELY LARGE WARM NOSE INTO THE LOWER LEVELS. ONCE
AGAIN...THIS LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SET UP FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN AT THE
ONSET THROUGH 12Z...EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO ALL RAIN AS TEMPS CONTINUE
TO WARM AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
PATTERN CONTINUING TO RULE ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK...BEFORE DAMPENING A BIT NEXT WEEKEND. A POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH OUT WEST WILL RESULT IN DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW SETTING
UP ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A STOUT
BAROCLINIC ZONE TO MEANDER THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH MUCH WARMER AND WETTER AIR
BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER SHARP COOL DOWN WILL
FOLLOW...WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION GOING OVER TO SNOW
BEFORE ENDING THE WEEK MUCH COLDER AND DRIER.

DETAILS ON WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SETS UP AND
LINGERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO VARY OVER THE COMING DAYS. AS
SUCH...HAVE CONTINUED TO STICK TO A GENERAL BLEND OF THE
SOLUTIONS...INCLUDING THE QPF AMOUNTS. IN GENERAL...THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO PAINT 2 TO 3 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY MORNING. THE BULK OF THIS
WILL FALL TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH HEAVIER
AMOUNTS STARTING OUT IN THE NORTHWEST...AND THEN EVENTUALLY
SPREADING TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. THIS WILL BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING CONCERNS AND WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS THREAT IN AN ONGOING HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITATION MAY START OUT AS A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND
RAIN FOR THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY...
BEFORE QUICKLY GOING OVER TO JUST RAIN AS MUCH WARMER AIR ADVECTS
INTO THE REGION. A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH DURING THE
DAY...WITH THE BETTER RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKELY FALLING WEST OF I-75
AND NEAR THE I-64 CORRIDOR...AS SOME DOWNSLOPING MAY CUT INTO
TOTALS TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW AND VERY
GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT...WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION GOING OVER TO
SNOW...WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE MODELS
ARE INDICATING THAT THE COLD AIR WILL MAKE IT IN BEFORE THE DEEPER
MOISTURE EXITS...IN PARTICULAR THE ECMWF...RESULTING IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR A GOOD WINDOW OF HEAVY WET SNOW. THIS IS NOT A
TYPICAL OUTCOME FOR THIS PATTERN...BUT WILL STILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED IN THE COMING DAYS.

AFTER ENJOYING HIGHS IN THE 50S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...READINGS
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 20S AND 30S FOR THURSDAY...WITH LOWS
BOTTOMING OUT NEAR THE 10 DEGREE MARK FRIDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL
RETURN TO THE 40S FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

NEAR LIFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY PUT CIGS AT OR BELOW AIRPORT
MINIMUMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH LITTLE IMPROVEMENT
EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...VISIBILITIES WILL BE SHARPLY REDUCED AT
TIMES...ALSO WITH A CHANCE TO GO UNDER AIRPORT MINIMUMS AT TIMES.
THIS WILL YIELD A VERY BAD CONDITIONS FOR AVIATION CUSTOMERS. CIGS
SHOULD BREAK UP AND LIFT TOMORROW MORNING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS BY MIDDAY TOMORROW.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...KAS





000
FXUS63 KJKL 012341
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
641 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 641 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

UPDATED TO REMOVE POPS THROUGH THE EVENING AS WE REMAIN DRY
SLOTTED. HOWEVER...THE COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS
NORTHERN KENTUCKY WILL SLIP SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS...A MID LEVEL WAVE WILL PUSH EAST WITH
MOISTURE RAPIDLY INCREASING ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. THIS WILL MEAN
INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THE
FRONT SLIPS SOUTH...PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY HOLD ON THE
LONGEST IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. ADJUSTED THE POPS TO REFLECT THE
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES (CATEGORICAL) IN SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY...TRAILING OFF TO JUST CHANCE IN THE NORTH...WHERE THE
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH MUCH FASTER THIS EVENING. HRRR CONTINUES
TO SHOW A GOOD HANDLE ON PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THIS EVENING...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW IT FAIRLY CLOSELY WITH EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF
MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT. THE PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME COOLING FAST ENOUGH TO ALLOW
FOR MUCH FREEZING RAIN AND WITH GROUND TEMPERATURES FAIRLY WARM
GOING INTO THINGS TONIGHT...NOT NEARLY AS CONCERNED ABOUT ICING
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE HRRR WOULD SUGGEST
SOME PRECIPITATION RATES COULD GET FAIRLY GOOD LATER
TONIGHT...PERHAPS ALLOWING A QUICK CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. THIS WOULD SEEM REASONABLE AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR THIS AS THIS COULD PUT DOWN A QUICK COATING OF SNOW IN SOME
AREAS...LEADING TO SOME SLICK ROADS. AT THE SAME
TIME...TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL MUCH BELOW FREEZING
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...SO ANY SNOW MAY NOT LAST ON ROADS GIVEN THE
WARMTH TODAY. THUS...IT MAY JUST BE A VERY SHORT TERM ISSUE TO
CONTEND WITH OVERNIGHT FOR THOSE DRIVING ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. WE MAY CONSIDER DOING A
SHORT TERM SPS IF THE HEAVIER SNOW BURSTS APPEAR TO BE MORE LIKELY
LATER ON. ALL FORECAST CHANGES HAVE BEEN INCORPORATED INTO THE
UPDATE WITH THE MAIN IMPACTS TO JUST HAVE LESS FREEZING RAIN
POTENTIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

ZONAL FLOW WILL HOLD ON THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
FINALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE REGION BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN AND EVENTUALLY
SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF MONDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. AS ROAD
TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGHOUT TODAY...EXPECT THEM TO LAG BEHIND THE
AIR TEMPERATURE FALLING OVERNIGHT BY AT LEAST AN HOUR OR
TWO...THOUGH A FAIRLY STRONG WARM NOSE EXISTS BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z
ACROSS EASTERN KY. EXPECT THE FREEZING RAIN TO OCCUR AS THE RAIN IS
SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW...WITH SOME MIXING POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z. MOST
OF THE IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE NORTHER HALF OF THE
CWA...WHERE TEMPS WILL BE THE COLDEST.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE
HOLD DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. DRY AIR WILL QUICKLY CUT OFF ANY
LINGERING PRECIP BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS EASTERN KY...AND
ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKING UP OF THE ONGOING CLOUD COVER. UNDER LIGHT
WINDS...AND WITHOUT THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WE HAD
TODAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE AFTERNOON...ONLY
REACHING THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE VERY SHORT
LIVED UNFORTUNATELY...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST OF
THE REGION BY 6Z TUESDAY...WINDS BECOME MORE SRLY ONCE MORE...AND WE
START TO SEE THE INFLUENCES OF OUR NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.

CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PATTERN AND SHIFTING
NORTH EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. WITH STRONG SRLY FLOW
PULLING IN DECENT GULF MOISTURE...EXPECT PRECIP TO BEGIN WELL AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH POPS EXPECTED IN EASTERN KY AS EARLY AS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THOUGH SURFACE TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING BY TUESDAY MORNING...THIS STRONGER SRLY FLOW WILL INTRODUCE
AN IMPRESSIVELY LARGE WARM NOSE INTO THE LOWER LEVELS. ONCE
AGAIN...THIS LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SET UP FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN AT THE
ONSET THROUGH 12Z...EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO ALL RAIN AS TEMPS CONTINUE
TO WARM AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
PATTERN CONTINUING TO RULE ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK...BEFORE DAMPENING A BIT NEXT WEEKEND. A POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH OUT WEST WILL RESULT IN DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW SETTING
UP ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A STOUT
BAROCLINIC ZONE TO MEANDER THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH MUCH WARMER AND WETTER AIR
BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER SHARP COOL DOWN WILL
FOLLOW...WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION GOING OVER TO SNOW
BEFORE ENDING THE WEEK MUCH COLDER AND DRIER.

DETAILS ON WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SETS UP AND
LINGERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO VARY OVER THE COMING DAYS. AS
SUCH...HAVE CONTINUED TO STICK TO A GENERAL BLEND OF THE
SOLUTIONS...INCLUDING THE QPF AMOUNTS. IN GENERAL...THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO PAINT 2 TO 3 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY MORNING. THE BULK OF THIS
WILL FALL TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH HEAVIER
AMOUNTS STARTING OUT IN THE NORTHWEST...AND THEN EVENTUALLY
SPREADING TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. THIS WILL BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING CONCERNS AND WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS THREAT IN AN ONGOING HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITATION MAY START OUT AS A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND
RAIN FOR THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY...
BEFORE QUICKLY GOING OVER TO JUST RAIN AS MUCH WARMER AIR ADVECTS
INTO THE REGION. A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH DURING THE
DAY...WITH THE BETTER RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKELY FALLING WEST OF I-75
AND NEAR THE I-64 CORRIDOR...AS SOME DOWNSLOPING MAY CUT INTO
TOTALS TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW AND VERY
GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT...WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION GOING OVER TO
SNOW...WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE MODELS
ARE INDICATING THAT THE COLD AIR WILL MAKE IT IN BEFORE THE DEEPER
MOISTURE EXITS...IN PARTICULAR THE ECMWF...RESULTING IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR A GOOD WINDOW OF HEAVY WET SNOW. THIS IS NOT A
TYPICAL OUTCOME FOR THIS PATTERN...BUT WILL STILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED IN THE COMING DAYS.

AFTER ENJOYING HIGHS IN THE 50S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...READINGS
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 20S AND 30S FOR THURSDAY...WITH LOWS
BOTTOMING OUT NEAR THE 10 DEGREE MARK FRIDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL
RETURN TO THE 40S FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

NEAR LIFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY PUT CIGS AT OR BELOW AIRPORT
MINIMUMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH LITTLE IMPROVEMENT
EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...VISIBILITIES WILL BE SHARPLY REDUCED AT
TIMES...ALSO WITH A CHANCE TO GO UNDER AIRPORT MINIMUMS AT TIMES.
THIS WILL YIELD A VERY BAD CONDITIONS FOR AVIATION CUSTOMERS. CIGS
SHOULD BREAK UP AND LIFT TOMORROW MORNING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS BY MIDDAY TOMORROW.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...KAS





000
FXUS63 KJKL 012341
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
641 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 641 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

UPDATED TO REMOVE POPS THROUGH THE EVENING AS WE REMAIN DRY
SLOTTED. HOWEVER...THE COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS
NORTHERN KENTUCKY WILL SLIP SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS...A MID LEVEL WAVE WILL PUSH EAST WITH
MOISTURE RAPIDLY INCREASING ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. THIS WILL MEAN
INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THE
FRONT SLIPS SOUTH...PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY HOLD ON THE
LONGEST IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. ADJUSTED THE POPS TO REFLECT THE
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES (CATEGORICAL) IN SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY...TRAILING OFF TO JUST CHANCE IN THE NORTH...WHERE THE
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH MUCH FASTER THIS EVENING. HRRR CONTINUES
TO SHOW A GOOD HANDLE ON PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THIS EVENING...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW IT FAIRLY CLOSELY WITH EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF
MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT. THE PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME COOLING FAST ENOUGH TO ALLOW
FOR MUCH FREEZING RAIN AND WITH GROUND TEMPERATURES FAIRLY WARM
GOING INTO THINGS TONIGHT...NOT NEARLY AS CONCERNED ABOUT ICING
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE HRRR WOULD SUGGEST
SOME PRECIPITATION RATES COULD GET FAIRLY GOOD LATER
TONIGHT...PERHAPS ALLOWING A QUICK CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. THIS WOULD SEEM REASONABLE AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR THIS AS THIS COULD PUT DOWN A QUICK COATING OF SNOW IN SOME
AREAS...LEADING TO SOME SLICK ROADS. AT THE SAME
TIME...TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL MUCH BELOW FREEZING
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...SO ANY SNOW MAY NOT LAST ON ROADS GIVEN THE
WARMTH TODAY. THUS...IT MAY JUST BE A VERY SHORT TERM ISSUE TO
CONTEND WITH OVERNIGHT FOR THOSE DRIVING ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. WE MAY CONSIDER DOING A
SHORT TERM SPS IF THE HEAVIER SNOW BURSTS APPEAR TO BE MORE LIKELY
LATER ON. ALL FORECAST CHANGES HAVE BEEN INCORPORATED INTO THE
UPDATE WITH THE MAIN IMPACTS TO JUST HAVE LESS FREEZING RAIN
POTENTIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

ZONAL FLOW WILL HOLD ON THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
FINALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE REGION BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN AND EVENTUALLY
SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF MONDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. AS ROAD
TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGHOUT TODAY...EXPECT THEM TO LAG BEHIND THE
AIR TEMPERATURE FALLING OVERNIGHT BY AT LEAST AN HOUR OR
TWO...THOUGH A FAIRLY STRONG WARM NOSE EXISTS BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z
ACROSS EASTERN KY. EXPECT THE FREEZING RAIN TO OCCUR AS THE RAIN IS
SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW...WITH SOME MIXING POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z. MOST
OF THE IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE NORTHER HALF OF THE
CWA...WHERE TEMPS WILL BE THE COLDEST.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE
HOLD DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. DRY AIR WILL QUICKLY CUT OFF ANY
LINGERING PRECIP BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS EASTERN KY...AND
ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKING UP OF THE ONGOING CLOUD COVER. UNDER LIGHT
WINDS...AND WITHOUT THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WE HAD
TODAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE AFTERNOON...ONLY
REACHING THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE VERY SHORT
LIVED UNFORTUNATELY...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST OF
THE REGION BY 6Z TUESDAY...WINDS BECOME MORE SRLY ONCE MORE...AND WE
START TO SEE THE INFLUENCES OF OUR NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.

CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PATTERN AND SHIFTING
NORTH EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. WITH STRONG SRLY FLOW
PULLING IN DECENT GULF MOISTURE...EXPECT PRECIP TO BEGIN WELL AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH POPS EXPECTED IN EASTERN KY AS EARLY AS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THOUGH SURFACE TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING BY TUESDAY MORNING...THIS STRONGER SRLY FLOW WILL INTRODUCE
AN IMPRESSIVELY LARGE WARM NOSE INTO THE LOWER LEVELS. ONCE
AGAIN...THIS LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SET UP FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN AT THE
ONSET THROUGH 12Z...EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO ALL RAIN AS TEMPS CONTINUE
TO WARM AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
PATTERN CONTINUING TO RULE ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK...BEFORE DAMPENING A BIT NEXT WEEKEND. A POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH OUT WEST WILL RESULT IN DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW SETTING
UP ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A STOUT
BAROCLINIC ZONE TO MEANDER THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH MUCH WARMER AND WETTER AIR
BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER SHARP COOL DOWN WILL
FOLLOW...WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION GOING OVER TO SNOW
BEFORE ENDING THE WEEK MUCH COLDER AND DRIER.

DETAILS ON WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SETS UP AND
LINGERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO VARY OVER THE COMING DAYS. AS
SUCH...HAVE CONTINUED TO STICK TO A GENERAL BLEND OF THE
SOLUTIONS...INCLUDING THE QPF AMOUNTS. IN GENERAL...THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO PAINT 2 TO 3 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY MORNING. THE BULK OF THIS
WILL FALL TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH HEAVIER
AMOUNTS STARTING OUT IN THE NORTHWEST...AND THEN EVENTUALLY
SPREADING TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. THIS WILL BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING CONCERNS AND WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS THREAT IN AN ONGOING HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITATION MAY START OUT AS A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND
RAIN FOR THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY...
BEFORE QUICKLY GOING OVER TO JUST RAIN AS MUCH WARMER AIR ADVECTS
INTO THE REGION. A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH DURING THE
DAY...WITH THE BETTER RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKELY FALLING WEST OF I-75
AND NEAR THE I-64 CORRIDOR...AS SOME DOWNSLOPING MAY CUT INTO
TOTALS TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW AND VERY
GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT...WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION GOING OVER TO
SNOW...WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE MODELS
ARE INDICATING THAT THE COLD AIR WILL MAKE IT IN BEFORE THE DEEPER
MOISTURE EXITS...IN PARTICULAR THE ECMWF...RESULTING IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR A GOOD WINDOW OF HEAVY WET SNOW. THIS IS NOT A
TYPICAL OUTCOME FOR THIS PATTERN...BUT WILL STILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED IN THE COMING DAYS.

AFTER ENJOYING HIGHS IN THE 50S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...READINGS
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 20S AND 30S FOR THURSDAY...WITH LOWS
BOTTOMING OUT NEAR THE 10 DEGREE MARK FRIDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL
RETURN TO THE 40S FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

NEAR LIFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY PUT CIGS AT OR BELOW AIRPORT
MINIMUMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH LITTLE IMPROVEMENT
EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...VISIBILITIES WILL BE SHARPLY REDUCED AT
TIMES...ALSO WITH A CHANCE TO GO UNDER AIRPORT MINIMUMS AT TIMES.
THIS WILL YIELD A VERY BAD CONDITIONS FOR AVIATION CUSTOMERS. CIGS
SHOULD BREAK UP AND LIFT TOMORROW MORNING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS BY MIDDAY TOMORROW.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...KAS




000
FXUS63 KJKL 012341
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
641 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 641 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

UPDATED TO REMOVE POPS THROUGH THE EVENING AS WE REMAIN DRY
SLOTTED. HOWEVER...THE COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS
NORTHERN KENTUCKY WILL SLIP SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS...A MID LEVEL WAVE WILL PUSH EAST WITH
MOISTURE RAPIDLY INCREASING ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. THIS WILL MEAN
INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THE
FRONT SLIPS SOUTH...PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY HOLD ON THE
LONGEST IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. ADJUSTED THE POPS TO REFLECT THE
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES (CATEGORICAL) IN SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY...TRAILING OFF TO JUST CHANCE IN THE NORTH...WHERE THE
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH MUCH FASTER THIS EVENING. HRRR CONTINUES
TO SHOW A GOOD HANDLE ON PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THIS EVENING...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW IT FAIRLY CLOSELY WITH EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF
MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT. THE PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME COOLING FAST ENOUGH TO ALLOW
FOR MUCH FREEZING RAIN AND WITH GROUND TEMPERATURES FAIRLY WARM
GOING INTO THINGS TONIGHT...NOT NEARLY AS CONCERNED ABOUT ICING
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE HRRR WOULD SUGGEST
SOME PRECIPITATION RATES COULD GET FAIRLY GOOD LATER
TONIGHT...PERHAPS ALLOWING A QUICK CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. THIS WOULD SEEM REASONABLE AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR THIS AS THIS COULD PUT DOWN A QUICK COATING OF SNOW IN SOME
AREAS...LEADING TO SOME SLICK ROADS. AT THE SAME
TIME...TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL MUCH BELOW FREEZING
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...SO ANY SNOW MAY NOT LAST ON ROADS GIVEN THE
WARMTH TODAY. THUS...IT MAY JUST BE A VERY SHORT TERM ISSUE TO
CONTEND WITH OVERNIGHT FOR THOSE DRIVING ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. WE MAY CONSIDER DOING A
SHORT TERM SPS IF THE HEAVIER SNOW BURSTS APPEAR TO BE MORE LIKELY
LATER ON. ALL FORECAST CHANGES HAVE BEEN INCORPORATED INTO THE
UPDATE WITH THE MAIN IMPACTS TO JUST HAVE LESS FREEZING RAIN
POTENTIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

ZONAL FLOW WILL HOLD ON THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
FINALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE REGION BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN AND EVENTUALLY
SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF MONDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. AS ROAD
TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGHOUT TODAY...EXPECT THEM TO LAG BEHIND THE
AIR TEMPERATURE FALLING OVERNIGHT BY AT LEAST AN HOUR OR
TWO...THOUGH A FAIRLY STRONG WARM NOSE EXISTS BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z
ACROSS EASTERN KY. EXPECT THE FREEZING RAIN TO OCCUR AS THE RAIN IS
SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW...WITH SOME MIXING POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z. MOST
OF THE IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE NORTHER HALF OF THE
CWA...WHERE TEMPS WILL BE THE COLDEST.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE
HOLD DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. DRY AIR WILL QUICKLY CUT OFF ANY
LINGERING PRECIP BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS EASTERN KY...AND
ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKING UP OF THE ONGOING CLOUD COVER. UNDER LIGHT
WINDS...AND WITHOUT THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WE HAD
TODAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE AFTERNOON...ONLY
REACHING THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE VERY SHORT
LIVED UNFORTUNATELY...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST OF
THE REGION BY 6Z TUESDAY...WINDS BECOME MORE SRLY ONCE MORE...AND WE
START TO SEE THE INFLUENCES OF OUR NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.

CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PATTERN AND SHIFTING
NORTH EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. WITH STRONG SRLY FLOW
PULLING IN DECENT GULF MOISTURE...EXPECT PRECIP TO BEGIN WELL AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH POPS EXPECTED IN EASTERN KY AS EARLY AS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THOUGH SURFACE TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING BY TUESDAY MORNING...THIS STRONGER SRLY FLOW WILL INTRODUCE
AN IMPRESSIVELY LARGE WARM NOSE INTO THE LOWER LEVELS. ONCE
AGAIN...THIS LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SET UP FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN AT THE
ONSET THROUGH 12Z...EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO ALL RAIN AS TEMPS CONTINUE
TO WARM AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
PATTERN CONTINUING TO RULE ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK...BEFORE DAMPENING A BIT NEXT WEEKEND. A POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH OUT WEST WILL RESULT IN DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW SETTING
UP ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A STOUT
BAROCLINIC ZONE TO MEANDER THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH MUCH WARMER AND WETTER AIR
BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER SHARP COOL DOWN WILL
FOLLOW...WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION GOING OVER TO SNOW
BEFORE ENDING THE WEEK MUCH COLDER AND DRIER.

DETAILS ON WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SETS UP AND
LINGERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO VARY OVER THE COMING DAYS. AS
SUCH...HAVE CONTINUED TO STICK TO A GENERAL BLEND OF THE
SOLUTIONS...INCLUDING THE QPF AMOUNTS. IN GENERAL...THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO PAINT 2 TO 3 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY MORNING. THE BULK OF THIS
WILL FALL TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH HEAVIER
AMOUNTS STARTING OUT IN THE NORTHWEST...AND THEN EVENTUALLY
SPREADING TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. THIS WILL BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING CONCERNS AND WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS THREAT IN AN ONGOING HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITATION MAY START OUT AS A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND
RAIN FOR THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY...
BEFORE QUICKLY GOING OVER TO JUST RAIN AS MUCH WARMER AIR ADVECTS
INTO THE REGION. A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH DURING THE
DAY...WITH THE BETTER RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKELY FALLING WEST OF I-75
AND NEAR THE I-64 CORRIDOR...AS SOME DOWNSLOPING MAY CUT INTO
TOTALS TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW AND VERY
GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT...WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION GOING OVER TO
SNOW...WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE MODELS
ARE INDICATING THAT THE COLD AIR WILL MAKE IT IN BEFORE THE DEEPER
MOISTURE EXITS...IN PARTICULAR THE ECMWF...RESULTING IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR A GOOD WINDOW OF HEAVY WET SNOW. THIS IS NOT A
TYPICAL OUTCOME FOR THIS PATTERN...BUT WILL STILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED IN THE COMING DAYS.

AFTER ENJOYING HIGHS IN THE 50S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...READINGS
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 20S AND 30S FOR THURSDAY...WITH LOWS
BOTTOMING OUT NEAR THE 10 DEGREE MARK FRIDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL
RETURN TO THE 40S FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

NEAR LIFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY PUT CIGS AT OR BELOW AIRPORT
MINIMUMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH LITTLE IMPROVEMENT
EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...VISIBILITIES WILL BE SHARPLY REDUCED AT
TIMES...ALSO WITH A CHANCE TO GO UNDER AIRPORT MINIMUMS AT TIMES.
THIS WILL YIELD A VERY BAD CONDITIONS FOR AVIATION CUSTOMERS. CIGS
SHOULD BREAK UP AND LIFT TOMORROW MORNING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS BY MIDDAY TOMORROW.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...KAS




000
FXUS63 KJKL 012055
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
355 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

ZONAL FLOW WILL HOLD ON THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
FINALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE REGION BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN AND EVENTUALLY
SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF MONDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. AS ROAD
TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGHOUT TODAY...EXPECT THEM TO LAG BEHIND THE
AIR TEMPERATURE FALLING OVERNIGHT BY AT LEAST AN HOUR OR
TWO...THOUGH A FAIRLY STRONG WARM NOSE EXISTS BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z
ACROSS EASTERN KY. EXPECT THE FREEZING RAIN TO OCCUR AS THE RAIN IS
SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW...WITH SOME MIXING POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z. MOST
OF THE IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE NORTHER HALF OF THE
CWA...WHERE TEMPS WILL BE THE COLDEST.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE
HOLD DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. DRY AIR WILL QUICKLY CUT OFF ANY
LINGERING PRECIP BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS EASTERN KY...AND
ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKING UP OF THE ONGOING CLOUD COVER. UNDER LIGHT
WINDS...AND WITHOUT THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WE HAD
TODAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE AFTERNOON...ONLY
REACHING THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE VERY SHORT
LIVED UNFORTUNATELY...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST OF
THE REGION BY 6Z TUESDAY...WINDS BECOME MORE SRLY ONCE MORE...AND WE
START TO SEE THE INFLUENCES OF OUR NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.

CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PATTERN AND SHIFTING
NORTH EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. WITH STRONG SRLY FLOW
PULLING IN DECENT GULF MOISTURE...EXPECT PRECIP TO BEGIN WELL AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH POPS EXPECTED IN EASTERN KY AS EARLY AS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THOUGH SURFACE TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING BY TUESDAY MORNING...THIS STRONGER SRLY FLOW WILL INTRODUCE
AN IMPRESSIVELY LARGE WARM NOSE INTO THE LOWER LEVELS. ONCE
AGAIN...THIS LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SET UP FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN AT THE
ONSET THROUGH 12Z...EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO ALL RAIN AS TEMPS CONTINUE
TO WARM AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
PATTERN CONTINUING TO RULE ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK...BEFORE DAMPENING A BIT NEXT WEEKEND. A POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH OUT WEST WILL RESULT IN DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW SETTING
UP ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A STOUT
BAROCLINIC ZONE TO MEANDER THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH MUCH WARMER AND WETTER AIR
BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER SHARP COOL DOWN WILL
FOLLOW...WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION GOING OVER TO SNOW
BEFORE ENDING THE WEEK MUCH COLDER AND DRIER.

DETAILS ON WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SETS UP AND
LINGERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO VARY OVER THE COMING DAYS. AS
SUCH...HAVE CONTINUED TO STICK TO A GENERAL BLEND OF THE
SOLUTIONS...INCLUDING THE QPF AMOUNTS. IN GENERAL...THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO PAINT 2 TO 3 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY MORNING. THE BULK OF THIS
WILL FALL TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH HEAVIER
AMOUNTS STARTING OUT IN THE NORTHWEST...AND THEN EVENTUALLY
SPREADING TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. THIS WILL BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING CONCERNS AND WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS THREAT IN AN ONGOING HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITATION MAY START OUT AS A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND
RAIN FOR THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY...
BEFORE QUICKLY GOING OVER TO JUST RAIN AS MUCH WARMER AIR ADVECTS
INTO THE REGION. A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH DURING THE
DAY...WITH THE BETTER RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKELY FALLING WEST OF I-75
AND NEAR THE I-64 CORRIDOR...AS SOME DOWNSLOPING MAY CUT INTO
TOTALS TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW AND VERY
GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT...WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION GOING OVER TO
SNOW...WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE MODELS
ARE INDICATING THAT THE COLD AIR WILL MAKE IT IN BEFORE THE DEEPER
MOISTURE EXITS...IN PARTICULAR THE ECMWF...RESULTING IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR A GOOD WINDOW OF HEAVY WET SNOW. THIS IS NOT A
TYPICAL OUTCOME FOR THIS PATTERN...BUT WILL STILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED IN THE COMING DAYS.

AFTER ENJOYING HIGHS IN THE 50S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...READINGS
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 20S AND 30S FOR THURSDAY...WITH LOWS
BOTTOMING OUT NEAR THE 10 DEGREE MARK FRIDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL
RETURN TO THE 40S FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KY AT
THIS TIME...WITH ALMOST EVERY TAF SITE BEING IMPACTED. SO
FAR THE RAIN REMAINS FAIRLY LIGHT...WITH ONLY MVFR RESTRICTIONS
TO VIS. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA...WITH KSYM POSSIBLY SEEING SOME TEMPORARILY DROPS
DOWN TO IFR VIS CONDITIONS IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER BURSTS.
OVERALL...MOST OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KY CONTINUES TO SEE MVFR
SKIES...AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING.
WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF WE DROPPED TO IFR LATER ON TONIGHT AS WE
SEE SOME OF OUR BEST SATURATION. THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL THAT
SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN WITH THE RAIN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM...JUST BEFORE TAPERING OFF SOON AFTER. TRIED TO TIME THIS
OUT IN THE FORECAST...WITH MOST OF THE SNOW EXPECTED TO BE AFTER
AROUND 6-7Z. PRECIP WILL BE ENDING SOMETIME TOMORROW
MORNING...WITH SKIES SLOWLY BREAKING UP DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL
SHIFT BACK TO A MORE NW TO NRLY DIRECTION...BUT SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN BELOW 10KTS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...JMW





000
FXUS63 KJKL 012055
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
355 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

ZONAL FLOW WILL HOLD ON THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
FINALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE REGION BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN AND EVENTUALLY
SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF MONDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. AS ROAD
TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGHOUT TODAY...EXPECT THEM TO LAG BEHIND THE
AIR TEMPERATURE FALLING OVERNIGHT BY AT LEAST AN HOUR OR
TWO...THOUGH A FAIRLY STRONG WARM NOSE EXISTS BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z
ACROSS EASTERN KY. EXPECT THE FREEZING RAIN TO OCCUR AS THE RAIN IS
SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW...WITH SOME MIXING POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z. MOST
OF THE IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE NORTHER HALF OF THE
CWA...WHERE TEMPS WILL BE THE COLDEST.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE
HOLD DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. DRY AIR WILL QUICKLY CUT OFF ANY
LINGERING PRECIP BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS EASTERN KY...AND
ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKING UP OF THE ONGOING CLOUD COVER. UNDER LIGHT
WINDS...AND WITHOUT THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WE HAD
TODAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE AFTERNOON...ONLY
REACHING THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE VERY SHORT
LIVED UNFORTUNATELY...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST OF
THE REGION BY 6Z TUESDAY...WINDS BECOME MORE SRLY ONCE MORE...AND WE
START TO SEE THE INFLUENCES OF OUR NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.

CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PATTERN AND SHIFTING
NORTH EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. WITH STRONG SRLY FLOW
PULLING IN DECENT GULF MOISTURE...EXPECT PRECIP TO BEGIN WELL AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH POPS EXPECTED IN EASTERN KY AS EARLY AS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THOUGH SURFACE TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING BY TUESDAY MORNING...THIS STRONGER SRLY FLOW WILL INTRODUCE
AN IMPRESSIVELY LARGE WARM NOSE INTO THE LOWER LEVELS. ONCE
AGAIN...THIS LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SET UP FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN AT THE
ONSET THROUGH 12Z...EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO ALL RAIN AS TEMPS CONTINUE
TO WARM AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
PATTERN CONTINUING TO RULE ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK...BEFORE DAMPENING A BIT NEXT WEEKEND. A POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH OUT WEST WILL RESULT IN DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW SETTING
UP ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A STOUT
BAROCLINIC ZONE TO MEANDER THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH MUCH WARMER AND WETTER AIR
BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER SHARP COOL DOWN WILL
FOLLOW...WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION GOING OVER TO SNOW
BEFORE ENDING THE WEEK MUCH COLDER AND DRIER.

DETAILS ON WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SETS UP AND
LINGERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO VARY OVER THE COMING DAYS. AS
SUCH...HAVE CONTINUED TO STICK TO A GENERAL BLEND OF THE
SOLUTIONS...INCLUDING THE QPF AMOUNTS. IN GENERAL...THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO PAINT 2 TO 3 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY MORNING. THE BULK OF THIS
WILL FALL TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH HEAVIER
AMOUNTS STARTING OUT IN THE NORTHWEST...AND THEN EVENTUALLY
SPREADING TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. THIS WILL BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING CONCERNS AND WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS THREAT IN AN ONGOING HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITATION MAY START OUT AS A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND
RAIN FOR THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY...
BEFORE QUICKLY GOING OVER TO JUST RAIN AS MUCH WARMER AIR ADVECTS
INTO THE REGION. A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH DURING THE
DAY...WITH THE BETTER RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKELY FALLING WEST OF I-75
AND NEAR THE I-64 CORRIDOR...AS SOME DOWNSLOPING MAY CUT INTO
TOTALS TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW AND VERY
GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT...WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION GOING OVER TO
SNOW...WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE MODELS
ARE INDICATING THAT THE COLD AIR WILL MAKE IT IN BEFORE THE DEEPER
MOISTURE EXITS...IN PARTICULAR THE ECMWF...RESULTING IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR A GOOD WINDOW OF HEAVY WET SNOW. THIS IS NOT A
TYPICAL OUTCOME FOR THIS PATTERN...BUT WILL STILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED IN THE COMING DAYS.

AFTER ENJOYING HIGHS IN THE 50S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...READINGS
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 20S AND 30S FOR THURSDAY...WITH LOWS
BOTTOMING OUT NEAR THE 10 DEGREE MARK FRIDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL
RETURN TO THE 40S FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KY AT
THIS TIME...WITH ALMOST EVERY TAF SITE BEING IMPACTED. SO
FAR THE RAIN REMAINS FAIRLY LIGHT...WITH ONLY MVFR RESTRICTIONS
TO VIS. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA...WITH KSYM POSSIBLY SEEING SOME TEMPORARILY DROPS
DOWN TO IFR VIS CONDITIONS IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER BURSTS.
OVERALL...MOST OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KY CONTINUES TO SEE MVFR
SKIES...AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING.
WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF WE DROPPED TO IFR LATER ON TONIGHT AS WE
SEE SOME OF OUR BEST SATURATION. THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL THAT
SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN WITH THE RAIN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM...JUST BEFORE TAPERING OFF SOON AFTER. TRIED TO TIME THIS
OUT IN THE FORECAST...WITH MOST OF THE SNOW EXPECTED TO BE AFTER
AROUND 6-7Z. PRECIP WILL BE ENDING SOMETIME TOMORROW
MORNING...WITH SKIES SLOWLY BREAKING UP DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL
SHIFT BACK TO A MORE NW TO NRLY DIRECTION...BUT SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN BELOW 10KTS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...JMW




000
FXUS63 KJKL 012055
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
355 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

ZONAL FLOW WILL HOLD ON THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
FINALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE REGION BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN AND EVENTUALLY
SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF MONDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. AS ROAD
TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGHOUT TODAY...EXPECT THEM TO LAG BEHIND THE
AIR TEMPERATURE FALLING OVERNIGHT BY AT LEAST AN HOUR OR
TWO...THOUGH A FAIRLY STRONG WARM NOSE EXISTS BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z
ACROSS EASTERN KY. EXPECT THE FREEZING RAIN TO OCCUR AS THE RAIN IS
SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW...WITH SOME MIXING POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z. MOST
OF THE IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE NORTHER HALF OF THE
CWA...WHERE TEMPS WILL BE THE COLDEST.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE
HOLD DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. DRY AIR WILL QUICKLY CUT OFF ANY
LINGERING PRECIP BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS EASTERN KY...AND
ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKING UP OF THE ONGOING CLOUD COVER. UNDER LIGHT
WINDS...AND WITHOUT THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WE HAD
TODAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE AFTERNOON...ONLY
REACHING THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE VERY SHORT
LIVED UNFORTUNATELY...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST OF
THE REGION BY 6Z TUESDAY...WINDS BECOME MORE SRLY ONCE MORE...AND WE
START TO SEE THE INFLUENCES OF OUR NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.

CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PATTERN AND SHIFTING
NORTH EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. WITH STRONG SRLY FLOW
PULLING IN DECENT GULF MOISTURE...EXPECT PRECIP TO BEGIN WELL AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH POPS EXPECTED IN EASTERN KY AS EARLY AS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THOUGH SURFACE TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING BY TUESDAY MORNING...THIS STRONGER SRLY FLOW WILL INTRODUCE
AN IMPRESSIVELY LARGE WARM NOSE INTO THE LOWER LEVELS. ONCE
AGAIN...THIS LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SET UP FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN AT THE
ONSET THROUGH 12Z...EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO ALL RAIN AS TEMPS CONTINUE
TO WARM AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
PATTERN CONTINUING TO RULE ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK...BEFORE DAMPENING A BIT NEXT WEEKEND. A POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH OUT WEST WILL RESULT IN DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW SETTING
UP ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A STOUT
BAROCLINIC ZONE TO MEANDER THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH MUCH WARMER AND WETTER AIR
BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER SHARP COOL DOWN WILL
FOLLOW...WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION GOING OVER TO SNOW
BEFORE ENDING THE WEEK MUCH COLDER AND DRIER.

DETAILS ON WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SETS UP AND
LINGERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO VARY OVER THE COMING DAYS. AS
SUCH...HAVE CONTINUED TO STICK TO A GENERAL BLEND OF THE
SOLUTIONS...INCLUDING THE QPF AMOUNTS. IN GENERAL...THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO PAINT 2 TO 3 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY MORNING. THE BULK OF THIS
WILL FALL TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH HEAVIER
AMOUNTS STARTING OUT IN THE NORTHWEST...AND THEN EVENTUALLY
SPREADING TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. THIS WILL BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING CONCERNS AND WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS THREAT IN AN ONGOING HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITATION MAY START OUT AS A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND
RAIN FOR THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY...
BEFORE QUICKLY GOING OVER TO JUST RAIN AS MUCH WARMER AIR ADVECTS
INTO THE REGION. A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH DURING THE
DAY...WITH THE BETTER RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKELY FALLING WEST OF I-75
AND NEAR THE I-64 CORRIDOR...AS SOME DOWNSLOPING MAY CUT INTO
TOTALS TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW AND VERY
GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT...WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION GOING OVER TO
SNOW...WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE MODELS
ARE INDICATING THAT THE COLD AIR WILL MAKE IT IN BEFORE THE DEEPER
MOISTURE EXITS...IN PARTICULAR THE ECMWF...RESULTING IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR A GOOD WINDOW OF HEAVY WET SNOW. THIS IS NOT A
TYPICAL OUTCOME FOR THIS PATTERN...BUT WILL STILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED IN THE COMING DAYS.

AFTER ENJOYING HIGHS IN THE 50S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...READINGS
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 20S AND 30S FOR THURSDAY...WITH LOWS
BOTTOMING OUT NEAR THE 10 DEGREE MARK FRIDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL
RETURN TO THE 40S FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KY AT
THIS TIME...WITH ALMOST EVERY TAF SITE BEING IMPACTED. SO
FAR THE RAIN REMAINS FAIRLY LIGHT...WITH ONLY MVFR RESTRICTIONS
TO VIS. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA...WITH KSYM POSSIBLY SEEING SOME TEMPORARILY DROPS
DOWN TO IFR VIS CONDITIONS IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER BURSTS.
OVERALL...MOST OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KY CONTINUES TO SEE MVFR
SKIES...AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING.
WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF WE DROPPED TO IFR LATER ON TONIGHT AS WE
SEE SOME OF OUR BEST SATURATION. THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL THAT
SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN WITH THE RAIN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM...JUST BEFORE TAPERING OFF SOON AFTER. TRIED TO TIME THIS
OUT IN THE FORECAST...WITH MOST OF THE SNOW EXPECTED TO BE AFTER
AROUND 6-7Z. PRECIP WILL BE ENDING SOMETIME TOMORROW
MORNING...WITH SKIES SLOWLY BREAKING UP DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL
SHIFT BACK TO A MORE NW TO NRLY DIRECTION...BUT SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN BELOW 10KTS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...JMW





000
FXUS63 KJKL 012021
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
321 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

ZONAL FLOW WILL HOLD ON THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
FINALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE REGION BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN AND EVENTUALLY
SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF MONDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. AS ROAD
TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGHOUT TODAY...EXPECT THEM TO LAG BEHIND THE
AIR TEMPERATURE FALLING OVERNIGHT BY AT LEAST AN HOUR OR
TWO...THOUGH A FAIRLY STRONG WARM NOSE EXISTS BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z
ACROSS EASTERN KY. EXPECT THE FREEZING RAIN TO OCCUR AS THE RAIN IS
SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW...WITH SOME MIXING POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z. MOST
OF THE IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE NORTHER HALF OF THE
CWA...WHERE TEMPS WILL BE THE COLDEST.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE
HOLD DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. DRY AIR WILL QUICKLY CUT OFF ANY
LINGERING PRECIP BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS EASTERN KY...AND
ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKING UP OF THE ONGOING CLOUD COVER. UNDER LIGHT
WINDS...AND WITHOUT THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WE HAD
TODAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE AFTERNOON...ONLY
REACHING THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE VERY SHORT
LIVED UNFORTUNATELY...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST OF
THE REGION BY 6Z TUESDAY...WINDS BECOME MORE SRLY ONCE MORE...AND WE
START TO SEE THE INFLUENCES OF OUR NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.

CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PATTERN AND SHIFTING
NORTH EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. WITH STRONG SRLY FLOW
PULLING IN DECENT GULF MOISTURE...EXPECT PRECIP TO BEGIN WELL AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH POPS EXPECTED IN EASTERN KY AS EARLY AS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THOUGH SURFACE TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING BY TUESDAY MORNING...THIS STRONGER SRLY FLOW WILL INTRODUCE
AN IMPRESSIVELY LARGE WARM NOSE INTO THE LOWER LEVELS. ONCE
AGAIN...THIS LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SET UP FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN AT THE
ONSET THROUGH 12Z...EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO ALL RAIN AS TEMPS CONTINUE
TO WARM AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

MID AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS ZONAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER TO SPEAK OF OTHER THAN THE APPROACH
OF A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE COLD
AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AT THE ONSET OF ANY PRECIPITATION
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

NAM ADVERTISES A 40-50 KT H925-H850 LLJ DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH BRINGS IN A WARM NOSE OF AT LEAST
+5C. TYPICALLY THE NAM HANDLES THE WARM NOSE BETTER THAN THE GFS SO
EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT MAY DEVELOP DURING THAT TIME FRAME TO
MELT ALOFT. THE REST DEPENDS ON BOUNDARY LAYER AND SFC TEMPS. WITH A
DECENT SNOW PACK STILL IN PLACE...ONLY A BRIEF FEW HOURS OF TEMPS
ABOVE FREEZING SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND A 5-6 INCH FROST DEPTH
EXPECT MUCH OF THE AREA WOULD BE AT RISK FOR A WINTRY MIX AT THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION.

OTHERWISE WE ARE LOOKING AT ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT TONIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AREA...MID TEENS FOR THE REST. CONSEQUENTLY...ANY MELTING OF SFC
SNOWFALL AND ICE WILL REFREEZE OVERNIGHT. SOME AREA ROAD WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO SEE SOME ISOLD SLICK SPOTS. TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A
EFFORT TO REBOUND TOMORROW BUT INCOMING CLOUD COVER MAY DAMPEN THE
WARM UP CONSIDERABLY. FOR NOW WENT MORE OPTIMISTIC AND TOOK
AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S...NEAR 40 FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KY AT
THIS TIME...WITH ALMOST EVERY TAF SITE BEING IMPACTED. SO
FAR THE RAIN REMAINS FAIRLY LIGHT...WITH ONLY MVFR RESTRICTIONS
TO VIS. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA...WITH KSYM POSSIBLY SEEING SOME TEMPORARILY DROPS
DOWN TO IFR VIS CONDITIONS IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER BURSTS.
OVERALL...MOST OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KY CONTINUES TO SEE MVFR
SKIES...AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING.
WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF WE DROPPED TO IFR LATER ON TONIGHT AS WE
SEE SOME OF OUR BEST SATURATION. THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL THAT
SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN WITH THE RAIN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM...JUST BEFORE TAPERING OFF SOON AFTER. TRIED TO TIME THIS
OUT IN THE FORECAST...WITH MOST OF THE SNOW EXPECTED TO BE AFTER
AROUND 6-7Z. PRECIP WILL BE ENDING SOMETIME TOMORROW
MORNING...WITH SKIES SLOWLY BREAKING UP DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL
SHIFT BACK TO A MORE NW TO NRLY DIRECTION...BUT SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN BELOW 10KTS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JMW





000
FXUS63 KJKL 012021
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
321 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

ZONAL FLOW WILL HOLD ON THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
FINALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE REGION BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN AND EVENTUALLY
SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF MONDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. AS ROAD
TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGHOUT TODAY...EXPECT THEM TO LAG BEHIND THE
AIR TEMPERATURE FALLING OVERNIGHT BY AT LEAST AN HOUR OR
TWO...THOUGH A FAIRLY STRONG WARM NOSE EXISTS BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z
ACROSS EASTERN KY. EXPECT THE FREEZING RAIN TO OCCUR AS THE RAIN IS
SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW...WITH SOME MIXING POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z. MOST
OF THE IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE NORTHER HALF OF THE
CWA...WHERE TEMPS WILL BE THE COLDEST.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE
HOLD DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. DRY AIR WILL QUICKLY CUT OFF ANY
LINGERING PRECIP BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS EASTERN KY...AND
ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKING UP OF THE ONGOING CLOUD COVER. UNDER LIGHT
WINDS...AND WITHOUT THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WE HAD
TODAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE AFTERNOON...ONLY
REACHING THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE VERY SHORT
LIVED UNFORTUNATELY...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST OF
THE REGION BY 6Z TUESDAY...WINDS BECOME MORE SRLY ONCE MORE...AND WE
START TO SEE THE INFLUENCES OF OUR NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.

CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PATTERN AND SHIFTING
NORTH EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. WITH STRONG SRLY FLOW
PULLING IN DECENT GULF MOISTURE...EXPECT PRECIP TO BEGIN WELL AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH POPS EXPECTED IN EASTERN KY AS EARLY AS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THOUGH SURFACE TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING BY TUESDAY MORNING...THIS STRONGER SRLY FLOW WILL INTRODUCE
AN IMPRESSIVELY LARGE WARM NOSE INTO THE LOWER LEVELS. ONCE
AGAIN...THIS LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SET UP FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN AT THE
ONSET THROUGH 12Z...EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO ALL RAIN AS TEMPS CONTINUE
TO WARM AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

MID AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS ZONAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER TO SPEAK OF OTHER THAN THE APPROACH
OF A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE COLD
AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AT THE ONSET OF ANY PRECIPITATION
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

NAM ADVERTISES A 40-50 KT H925-H850 LLJ DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH BRINGS IN A WARM NOSE OF AT LEAST
+5C. TYPICALLY THE NAM HANDLES THE WARM NOSE BETTER THAN THE GFS SO
EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT MAY DEVELOP DURING THAT TIME FRAME TO
MELT ALOFT. THE REST DEPENDS ON BOUNDARY LAYER AND SFC TEMPS. WITH A
DECENT SNOW PACK STILL IN PLACE...ONLY A BRIEF FEW HOURS OF TEMPS
ABOVE FREEZING SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND A 5-6 INCH FROST DEPTH
EXPECT MUCH OF THE AREA WOULD BE AT RISK FOR A WINTRY MIX AT THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION.

OTHERWISE WE ARE LOOKING AT ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT TONIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AREA...MID TEENS FOR THE REST. CONSEQUENTLY...ANY MELTING OF SFC
SNOWFALL AND ICE WILL REFREEZE OVERNIGHT. SOME AREA ROAD WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO SEE SOME ISOLD SLICK SPOTS. TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A
EFFORT TO REBOUND TOMORROW BUT INCOMING CLOUD COVER MAY DAMPEN THE
WARM UP CONSIDERABLY. FOR NOW WENT MORE OPTIMISTIC AND TOOK
AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S...NEAR 40 FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KY AT
THIS TIME...WITH ALMOST EVERY TAF SITE BEING IMPACTED. SO
FAR THE RAIN REMAINS FAIRLY LIGHT...WITH ONLY MVFR RESTRICTIONS
TO VIS. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA...WITH KSYM POSSIBLY SEEING SOME TEMPORARILY DROPS
DOWN TO IFR VIS CONDITIONS IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER BURSTS.
OVERALL...MOST OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KY CONTINUES TO SEE MVFR
SKIES...AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING.
WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF WE DROPPED TO IFR LATER ON TONIGHT AS WE
SEE SOME OF OUR BEST SATURATION. THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL THAT
SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN WITH THE RAIN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM...JUST BEFORE TAPERING OFF SOON AFTER. TRIED TO TIME THIS
OUT IN THE FORECAST...WITH MOST OF THE SNOW EXPECTED TO BE AFTER
AROUND 6-7Z. PRECIP WILL BE ENDING SOMETIME TOMORROW
MORNING...WITH SKIES SLOWLY BREAKING UP DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL
SHIFT BACK TO A MORE NW TO NRLY DIRECTION...BUT SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN BELOW 10KTS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JMW




000
FXUS63 KJKL 012021
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
321 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

ZONAL FLOW WILL HOLD ON THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
FINALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE REGION BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN AND EVENTUALLY
SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF MONDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. AS ROAD
TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGHOUT TODAY...EXPECT THEM TO LAG BEHIND THE
AIR TEMPERATURE FALLING OVERNIGHT BY AT LEAST AN HOUR OR
TWO...THOUGH A FAIRLY STRONG WARM NOSE EXISTS BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z
ACROSS EASTERN KY. EXPECT THE FREEZING RAIN TO OCCUR AS THE RAIN IS
SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW...WITH SOME MIXING POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z. MOST
OF THE IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE NORTHER HALF OF THE
CWA...WHERE TEMPS WILL BE THE COLDEST.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE
HOLD DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. DRY AIR WILL QUICKLY CUT OFF ANY
LINGERING PRECIP BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS EASTERN KY...AND
ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKING UP OF THE ONGOING CLOUD COVER. UNDER LIGHT
WINDS...AND WITHOUT THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WE HAD
TODAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE AFTERNOON...ONLY
REACHING THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE VERY SHORT
LIVED UNFORTUNATELY...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST OF
THE REGION BY 6Z TUESDAY...WINDS BECOME MORE SRLY ONCE MORE...AND WE
START TO SEE THE INFLUENCES OF OUR NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.

CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PATTERN AND SHIFTING
NORTH EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. WITH STRONG SRLY FLOW
PULLING IN DECENT GULF MOISTURE...EXPECT PRECIP TO BEGIN WELL AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH POPS EXPECTED IN EASTERN KY AS EARLY AS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THOUGH SURFACE TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING BY TUESDAY MORNING...THIS STRONGER SRLY FLOW WILL INTRODUCE
AN IMPRESSIVELY LARGE WARM NOSE INTO THE LOWER LEVELS. ONCE
AGAIN...THIS LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SET UP FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN AT THE
ONSET THROUGH 12Z...EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO ALL RAIN AS TEMPS CONTINUE
TO WARM AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

MID AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS ZONAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER TO SPEAK OF OTHER THAN THE APPROACH
OF A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE COLD
AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AT THE ONSET OF ANY PRECIPITATION
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

NAM ADVERTISES A 40-50 KT H925-H850 LLJ DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH BRINGS IN A WARM NOSE OF AT LEAST
+5C. TYPICALLY THE NAM HANDLES THE WARM NOSE BETTER THAN THE GFS SO
EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT MAY DEVELOP DURING THAT TIME FRAME TO
MELT ALOFT. THE REST DEPENDS ON BOUNDARY LAYER AND SFC TEMPS. WITH A
DECENT SNOW PACK STILL IN PLACE...ONLY A BRIEF FEW HOURS OF TEMPS
ABOVE FREEZING SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND A 5-6 INCH FROST DEPTH
EXPECT MUCH OF THE AREA WOULD BE AT RISK FOR A WINTRY MIX AT THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION.

OTHERWISE WE ARE LOOKING AT ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT TONIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AREA...MID TEENS FOR THE REST. CONSEQUENTLY...ANY MELTING OF SFC
SNOWFALL AND ICE WILL REFREEZE OVERNIGHT. SOME AREA ROAD WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO SEE SOME ISOLD SLICK SPOTS. TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A
EFFORT TO REBOUND TOMORROW BUT INCOMING CLOUD COVER MAY DAMPEN THE
WARM UP CONSIDERABLY. FOR NOW WENT MORE OPTIMISTIC AND TOOK
AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S...NEAR 40 FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KY AT
THIS TIME...WITH ALMOST EVERY TAF SITE BEING IMPACTED. SO
FAR THE RAIN REMAINS FAIRLY LIGHT...WITH ONLY MVFR RESTRICTIONS
TO VIS. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA...WITH KSYM POSSIBLY SEEING SOME TEMPORARILY DROPS
DOWN TO IFR VIS CONDITIONS IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER BURSTS.
OVERALL...MOST OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KY CONTINUES TO SEE MVFR
SKIES...AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING.
WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF WE DROPPED TO IFR LATER ON TONIGHT AS WE
SEE SOME OF OUR BEST SATURATION. THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL THAT
SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN WITH THE RAIN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM...JUST BEFORE TAPERING OFF SOON AFTER. TRIED TO TIME THIS
OUT IN THE FORECAST...WITH MOST OF THE SNOW EXPECTED TO BE AFTER
AROUND 6-7Z. PRECIP WILL BE ENDING SOMETIME TOMORROW
MORNING...WITH SKIES SLOWLY BREAKING UP DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL
SHIFT BACK TO A MORE NW TO NRLY DIRECTION...BUT SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN BELOW 10KTS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JMW





000
FXUS63 KJKL 012021
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
321 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

ZONAL FLOW WILL HOLD ON THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
FINALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE REGION BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN AND EVENTUALLY
SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF MONDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. AS ROAD
TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGHOUT TODAY...EXPECT THEM TO LAG BEHIND THE
AIR TEMPERATURE FALLING OVERNIGHT BY AT LEAST AN HOUR OR
TWO...THOUGH A FAIRLY STRONG WARM NOSE EXISTS BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z
ACROSS EASTERN KY. EXPECT THE FREEZING RAIN TO OCCUR AS THE RAIN IS
SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW...WITH SOME MIXING POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z. MOST
OF THE IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE NORTHER HALF OF THE
CWA...WHERE TEMPS WILL BE THE COLDEST.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE
HOLD DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. DRY AIR WILL QUICKLY CUT OFF ANY
LINGERING PRECIP BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS EASTERN KY...AND
ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKING UP OF THE ONGOING CLOUD COVER. UNDER LIGHT
WINDS...AND WITHOUT THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WE HAD
TODAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE AFTERNOON...ONLY
REACHING THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE VERY SHORT
LIVED UNFORTUNATELY...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST OF
THE REGION BY 6Z TUESDAY...WINDS BECOME MORE SRLY ONCE MORE...AND WE
START TO SEE THE INFLUENCES OF OUR NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.

CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PATTERN AND SHIFTING
NORTH EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. WITH STRONG SRLY FLOW
PULLING IN DECENT GULF MOISTURE...EXPECT PRECIP TO BEGIN WELL AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH POPS EXPECTED IN EASTERN KY AS EARLY AS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THOUGH SURFACE TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING BY TUESDAY MORNING...THIS STRONGER SRLY FLOW WILL INTRODUCE
AN IMPRESSIVELY LARGE WARM NOSE INTO THE LOWER LEVELS. ONCE
AGAIN...THIS LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SET UP FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN AT THE
ONSET THROUGH 12Z...EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO ALL RAIN AS TEMPS CONTINUE
TO WARM AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

MID AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS ZONAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER TO SPEAK OF OTHER THAN THE APPROACH
OF A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE COLD
AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AT THE ONSET OF ANY PRECIPITATION
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

NAM ADVERTISES A 40-50 KT H925-H850 LLJ DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH BRINGS IN A WARM NOSE OF AT LEAST
+5C. TYPICALLY THE NAM HANDLES THE WARM NOSE BETTER THAN THE GFS SO
EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT MAY DEVELOP DURING THAT TIME FRAME TO
MELT ALOFT. THE REST DEPENDS ON BOUNDARY LAYER AND SFC TEMPS. WITH A
DECENT SNOW PACK STILL IN PLACE...ONLY A BRIEF FEW HOURS OF TEMPS
ABOVE FREEZING SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND A 5-6 INCH FROST DEPTH
EXPECT MUCH OF THE AREA WOULD BE AT RISK FOR A WINTRY MIX AT THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION.

OTHERWISE WE ARE LOOKING AT ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT TONIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AREA...MID TEENS FOR THE REST. CONSEQUENTLY...ANY MELTING OF SFC
SNOWFALL AND ICE WILL REFREEZE OVERNIGHT. SOME AREA ROAD WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO SEE SOME ISOLD SLICK SPOTS. TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A
EFFORT TO REBOUND TOMORROW BUT INCOMING CLOUD COVER MAY DAMPEN THE
WARM UP CONSIDERABLY. FOR NOW WENT MORE OPTIMISTIC AND TOOK
AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S...NEAR 40 FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KY AT
THIS TIME...WITH ALMOST EVERY TAF SITE BEING IMPACTED. SO
FAR THE RAIN REMAINS FAIRLY LIGHT...WITH ONLY MVFR RESTRICTIONS
TO VIS. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA...WITH KSYM POSSIBLY SEEING SOME TEMPORARILY DROPS
DOWN TO IFR VIS CONDITIONS IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER BURSTS.
OVERALL...MOST OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KY CONTINUES TO SEE MVFR
SKIES...AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING.
WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF WE DROPPED TO IFR LATER ON TONIGHT AS WE
SEE SOME OF OUR BEST SATURATION. THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL THAT
SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN WITH THE RAIN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM...JUST BEFORE TAPERING OFF SOON AFTER. TRIED TO TIME THIS
OUT IN THE FORECAST...WITH MOST OF THE SNOW EXPECTED TO BE AFTER
AROUND 6-7Z. PRECIP WILL BE ENDING SOMETIME TOMORROW
MORNING...WITH SKIES SLOWLY BREAKING UP DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL
SHIFT BACK TO A MORE NW TO NRLY DIRECTION...BUT SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN BELOW 10KTS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JMW




000
FXUS63 KJKL 011804
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
104 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

ENDED UP EXTENDING THE WSW AND SPS FOR FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL TO
11AM THIS MORNING BASED ON THE CURRENT /AT THE TIME/ TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE CWA...AND REPORTS OF CONTINUED SLICK SPOTS ON AREA
ROADWAYS. TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS WITHIN THE WSW OR SPS
CONTINUED TO RISE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING...AND WERE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING BY THE EXPIRATION OF THE HEADLINES...SO HAD
NO NEED TO CONTINUE THE WSW OR SPS ANY LONGER. DURING THE INITIAL
EXTENSION OF THE PRODUCTS...ALSO WENT IN AND UPDATED THE WEATHER
IN THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS WITHIN THE WSW AREA. THIS HAS SINCE FALLEN OUT OF
THE FORECAST AS WELL.

CURRENTLY...A DECENT BAND OF PRECIPITATION IS CONTINUING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CWA...AND MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA. THIS
MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE UPDATED FORECAST FROM A FEW HOURS AGO.
WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING AT THIS POINT...EXPECT ALL
OF THIS PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WILL
BE LOADING IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA AT THE TOP OF THE HOUR
FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS...TO MAKE SURE THAT THE NEAR
TERM FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH THE ONGOING CONDITIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 647 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING FEATURED SOME
SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY AS THE DEVELOPING LL
JET RESULTED IN THIS DEVELOPMENT. REPORTS OVER NEAR PIKEVILLE THIS
MORNING RELAYED SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN REPORTS WITH SOME
SLICKNESS DEVELOPED ON SECONDARY ROADS. GIVEN THE INTENSITY OF THE
RAIN AND THE SATURATED LOWER LEVELS IN THE FAR EAST...SENT OUT AN
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THIS. THESE DEEPER VALLEYS IN THE EAST
WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL MID MORNING TO MIX OUT. NO REPORTS HAVE
BEEN SEEN IN THE NORTHWEST AND BLUEGRASS REGION AND GIVEN THE
SURGE OF WARM AIR COUPLED WITH THE CONTINUED DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS AREA WITH THE SPS
MENTIONING SOME LIGHT WINTRY WEATHER THIS MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD
ALSO RISE QUITE QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS THE WARMER SOUTHWESTERLY
AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA. HAVE SENT OUT A NEW ZFP WITH THE WSW
HIGHLIGHTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS KENTUCKY AS OF 0820Z HAVE CONTINUED
NORTHEAST MOVEMENT OF CLOUD COVER AND SOME RETURNS ON THE MOSAIC.
AT THIS POINT...THIS PSEUDO WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT
NORTH THROUGH KY WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WELL TO THE NORTH
ACROSS THE OH RIVER. IN FACT...THE ONLY MEASURABLE PRECIP AT THE
MESONET SITES WAS WELL NORTH OF I-64 IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY. WHILE
SURFACE AIR TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL ACROSS THE AREA...MOST LIKELY
DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING MORE THAN DIURNAL TRENDS...IT IS TO BE
NOTED THAT THE ROAD TEMPS REMAIN UP IN THE MID 30S THROUGH THE
MORNING SO FAR. THE MOISTURE MOVING IN OVERHEAD IS HAVING QUITE A
TOUGH TIME SATURATING THE LOWER LEVELS. FOR THIS...WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE SPS. THE HRRR AND NAM MODELS DO HAVE PRECIP FURTHER
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF KY IN THE 09Z TO 12Z
HOURS. IF THIS AREA DOES DEVELOP AS ROBUST AS IT IS...THERE MAY BE
A 1 TO 2 HOUR PERIOD WHERE A HUNDREDTH OR TWO OF FREEZING PRECIP
MAY FALL. HOWEVER...TIMING HERE WILL BE AN ISSUE AS WELL AS TEMPS
WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND AND WARM UP AFTER DAWN. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...QUITE A TEDIOUS SITUATION BETWEEN ALL THE ELEMENTS IN PLAY
THIS SUNDAY MORNING.

HEADING INTO THE DAY...THE MOISTURE INFLUX CONTINUES WITH RAIN
ANTICIPATED ALL DAY AND FOR ONCE...WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AT
THE SURFACE LATER TODAY ALLOWING WARMER TEMPS INTO THE AREA AS
HIGHS TODAY WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S. HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST SAGS SOUTH OF THE TN BORDER AND
COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND TONIGHT. AS THE DEPTH OF THE
MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT BECOMES SHALLOW...CAA WILL CHANGE
PRECIP TO ALL SNOW. THERE MAY BE A SHORT PERIOD OF RAIN MIXED IN
BEFORE THE COMPLETE CHANGE OVER. BECAUSE OF THE LOSS OF
MOISTURE...MOST LOCATIONS WILL ONLY SEE A DUSTING. EXIT OF THIS
FEATURE WILL OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER DAWN ON MONDAY WITH A NICE
REBOUND FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY CLIMBING INTO THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

MID AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS ZONAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER TO SPEAK OF OTHER THAN THE APPROACH
OF A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE COLD
AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AT THE ONSET OF ANY PRECIPITATION
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

NAM ADVERTISES A 40-50 KT H925-H850 LLJ DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH BRINGS IN A WARM NOSE OF AT LEAST
+5C. TYPICALLY THE NAM HANDLES THE WARM NOSE BETTER THAN THE GFS SO
EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT MAY DEVELOP DURING THAT TIME FRAME TO
MELT ALOFT. THE REST DEPENDS ON BOUNDARY LAYER AND SFC TEMPS. WITH A
DECENT SNOW PACK STILL IN PLACE...ONLY A BRIEF FEW HOURS OF TEMPS
ABOVE FREEZING SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND A 5-6 INCH FROST DEPTH
EXPECT MUCH OF THE AREA WOULD BE AT RISK FOR A WINTRY MIX AT THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION.

OTHERWISE WE ARE LOOKING AT ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT TONIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AREA...MID TEENS FOR THE REST. CONSEQUENTLY...ANY MELTING OF SFC
SNOWFALL AND ICE WILL REFREEZE OVERNIGHT. SOME AREA ROAD WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO SEE SOME ISOLD SLICK SPOTS. TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A
EFFORT TO REBOUND TOMORROW BUT INCOMING CLOUD COVER MAY DAMPEN THE
WARM UP CONSIDERABLY. FOR NOW WENT MORE OPTIMISTIC AND TOOK
AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S...NEAR 40 FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KY AT
THIS TIME...WITH ALMOST EVERY TAF SITE BEING IMPACTED. SO
FAR THE RAIN REMAINS FAIRLY LIGHT...WITH ONLY MVFR RESTRICTIONS
TO VIS. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA...WITH KSYM POSSIBLY SEEING SOME TEMPORARILY DROPS
DOWN TO IFR VIS CONDITIONS IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER BURSTS.
OVERALL...MOST OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KY CONTINUES TO SEE MVFR
SKIES...AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING.
WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF WE DROPPED TO IFR LATER ON TONIGHT AS WE
SEE SOME OF OUR BEST SATURATION. THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL THAT
SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN WITH THE RAIN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM...JUST BEFORE TAPERING OFF SOON AFTER. TRIED TO TIME THIS
OUT IN THE FORECAST...WITH MOST OF THE SNOW EXPECTED TO BE AFTER
AROUND 6-7Z. PRECIP WILL BE ENDING SOMETIME TOMORROW
MORNING...WITH SKIES SLOWLY BREAKING UP DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL
SHIFT BACK TO A MORE NW TO NRLY DIRECTION...BUT SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN BELOW 10KTS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JMW




000
FXUS63 KJKL 011148
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
648 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 647 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING FEATURED SOME
SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY AS THE DEVELOPING LL
JET RESULTED IN THIS DEVELOPMENT. REPORTS OVER NEAR PIKEVILLE THIS
MORNING RELAYED SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN REPORTS WITH SOME
SLICKNESS DEVELOPED ON SECONDARY ROADS. GIVEN THE INTENSITY OF THE
RAIN AND THE SATURATED LOWER LEVELS IN THE FAR EAST...SENT OUT AN
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THIS. THESE DEEPER VALLEYS IN THE EAST
WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL MID MORNING TO MIX OUT. NO REPORTS HAVE
BEEN SEEN IN THE NORTHWEST AND BLUEGRASS REGION AND GIVEN THE
SURGE OF WARM AIR COUPLED WITH THE CONTINUED DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS AREA WITH THE SPS
MENTIONING SOME LIGHT WINTRY WEATHER THIS MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD
ALSO RISE QUITE QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS THE WARMER SOUTHWESTERLY
AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA. HAVE SENT OUT A NEW ZFP WITH THE WSW
HIGHLIGHTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS KENTUCKY AS OF 0820Z HAVE CONTINUED
NORTHEAST MOVEMENT OF CLOUD COVER AND SOME RETURNS ON THE MOSAIC.
AT THIS POINT...THIS PSEUDO WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT
NORTH THROUGH KY WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WELL TO THE NORTH
ACROSS THE OH RIVER. IN FACT...THE ONLY MEASURABLE PRECIP AT THE
MESONET SITES WAS WELL NORTH OF I-64 IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY. WHILE
SURFACE AIR TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL ACROSS THE AREA...MOST LIKELY
DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING MORE THAN DIURNAL TRENDS...IT IS TO BE
NOTED THAT THE ROAD TEMPS REMAIN UP IN THE MID 30S THROUGH THE
MORNING SO FAR. THE MOISTURE MOVING IN OVERHEAD IS HAVING QUITE A
TOUGH TIME SATURATING THE LOWER LEVELS. FOR THIS...WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE SPS. THE HRRR AND NAM MODELS DO HAVE PRECIP FURTHER
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF KY IN THE 09Z TO 12Z
HOURS. IF THIS AREA DOES DEVELOP AS ROBUST AS IT IS...THERE MAY BE
A 1 TO 2 HOUR PERIOD WHERE A HUNDREDTH OR TWO OF FREEZING PRECIP
MAY FALL. HOWEVER...TIMING HERE WILL BE AN ISSUE AS WELL AS TEMPS
WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND AND WARM UP AFTER DAWN. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...QUITE A TEDIOUS SITUATION BETWEEN ALL THE ELEMENTS IN PLAY
THIS SUNDAY MORNING.

HEADING INTO THE DAY...THE MOISTURE INFLUX CONTINUES WITH RAIN
ANTICIPATED ALL DAY AND FOR ONCE...WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AT
THE SURFACE LATER TODAY ALLOWING WARMER TEMPS INTO THE AREA AS
HIGHS TODAY WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S. HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST SAGS SOUTH OF THE TN BORDER AND
COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND TONIGHT. AS THE DEPTH OF THE
MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT BECOMES SHALLOW...CAA WILL CHANGE
PRECIP TO ALL SNOW. THERE MAY BE A SHORT PERIOD OF RAIN MIXED IN
BEFORE THE COMPLETE CHANGE OVER. BECAUSE OF THE LOSS OF
MOISTURE...MOST LOCATIONS WILL ONLY SEE A DUSTING. EXIT OF THIS
FEATURE WILL OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER DAWN ON MONDAY WITH A NICE
REBOUND FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY CLIMBING INTO THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

MID AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS ZONAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER TO SPEAK OF OTHER THAN THE APPROACH
OF A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE COLD
AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AT THE ONSET OF ANY PRECIPITATION
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

NAM ADVERTISES A 40-50 KT H925-H850 LLJ DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH BRINGS IN A WARM NOSE OF AT LEAST
+5C. TYPICALLY THE NAM HANDLES THE WARM NOSE BETTER THAN THE GFS SO
EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT MAY DEVELOP DURING THAT TIME FRAME TO
MELT ALOFT. THE REST DEPENDS ON BOUNDARY LAYER AND SFC TEMPS. WITH A
DECENT SNOW PACK STILL IN PLACE...ONLY A BRIEF FEW HOURS OF TEMPS
ABOVE FREEZING SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND A 5-6 INCH FROST DEPTH
EXPECT MUCH OF THE AREA WOULD BE AT RISK FOR A WINTRY MIX AT THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION.

OTHERWISE WE ARE LOOKING AT ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT TONIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AREA...MID TEENS FOR THE REST. CONSEQUENTLY...ANY MELTING OF SFC
SNOWFALL AND ICE WILL REFREEZE OVERNIGHT. SOME AREA ROAD WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO SEE SOME ISOLD SLICK SPOTS. TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A
EFFORT TO REBOUND TOMORROW BUT INCOMING CLOUD COVER MAY DAMPEN THE
WARM UP CONSIDERABLY. FOR NOW WENT MORE OPTIMISTIC AND TOOK
AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S...NEAR 40 FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

EXPECT FIELD MIN CIGS TO DEVELOP AT JUST ABOUT EVERY TAF SITE AS
A GOOD AREA OF RAIN ARRIVES INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING AND INTO
THE DAY TODAY. EXPECT SOME IFR VISIBILITY AS WELL. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD
AND PAST 00Z TONIGHT. AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW
WITH SOME LOCATIONS SEEING SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN VIS. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH DAWN BEFORE
THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 10 KNOTS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ088-
106>115-117>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER





000
FXUS63 KJKL 011148
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
648 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 647 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING FEATURED SOME
SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY AS THE DEVELOPING LL
JET RESULTED IN THIS DEVELOPMENT. REPORTS OVER NEAR PIKEVILLE THIS
MORNING RELAYED SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN REPORTS WITH SOME
SLICKNESS DEVELOPED ON SECONDARY ROADS. GIVEN THE INTENSITY OF THE
RAIN AND THE SATURATED LOWER LEVELS IN THE FAR EAST...SENT OUT AN
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THIS. THESE DEEPER VALLEYS IN THE EAST
WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL MID MORNING TO MIX OUT. NO REPORTS HAVE
BEEN SEEN IN THE NORTHWEST AND BLUEGRASS REGION AND GIVEN THE
SURGE OF WARM AIR COUPLED WITH THE CONTINUED DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS AREA WITH THE SPS
MENTIONING SOME LIGHT WINTRY WEATHER THIS MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD
ALSO RISE QUITE QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS THE WARMER SOUTHWESTERLY
AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA. HAVE SENT OUT A NEW ZFP WITH THE WSW
HIGHLIGHTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS KENTUCKY AS OF 0820Z HAVE CONTINUED
NORTHEAST MOVEMENT OF CLOUD COVER AND SOME RETURNS ON THE MOSAIC.
AT THIS POINT...THIS PSEUDO WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT
NORTH THROUGH KY WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WELL TO THE NORTH
ACROSS THE OH RIVER. IN FACT...THE ONLY MEASURABLE PRECIP AT THE
MESONET SITES WAS WELL NORTH OF I-64 IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY. WHILE
SURFACE AIR TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL ACROSS THE AREA...MOST LIKELY
DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING MORE THAN DIURNAL TRENDS...IT IS TO BE
NOTED THAT THE ROAD TEMPS REMAIN UP IN THE MID 30S THROUGH THE
MORNING SO FAR. THE MOISTURE MOVING IN OVERHEAD IS HAVING QUITE A
TOUGH TIME SATURATING THE LOWER LEVELS. FOR THIS...WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE SPS. THE HRRR AND NAM MODELS DO HAVE PRECIP FURTHER
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF KY IN THE 09Z TO 12Z
HOURS. IF THIS AREA DOES DEVELOP AS ROBUST AS IT IS...THERE MAY BE
A 1 TO 2 HOUR PERIOD WHERE A HUNDREDTH OR TWO OF FREEZING PRECIP
MAY FALL. HOWEVER...TIMING HERE WILL BE AN ISSUE AS WELL AS TEMPS
WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND AND WARM UP AFTER DAWN. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...QUITE A TEDIOUS SITUATION BETWEEN ALL THE ELEMENTS IN PLAY
THIS SUNDAY MORNING.

HEADING INTO THE DAY...THE MOISTURE INFLUX CONTINUES WITH RAIN
ANTICIPATED ALL DAY AND FOR ONCE...WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AT
THE SURFACE LATER TODAY ALLOWING WARMER TEMPS INTO THE AREA AS
HIGHS TODAY WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S. HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST SAGS SOUTH OF THE TN BORDER AND
COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND TONIGHT. AS THE DEPTH OF THE
MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT BECOMES SHALLOW...CAA WILL CHANGE
PRECIP TO ALL SNOW. THERE MAY BE A SHORT PERIOD OF RAIN MIXED IN
BEFORE THE COMPLETE CHANGE OVER. BECAUSE OF THE LOSS OF
MOISTURE...MOST LOCATIONS WILL ONLY SEE A DUSTING. EXIT OF THIS
FEATURE WILL OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER DAWN ON MONDAY WITH A NICE
REBOUND FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY CLIMBING INTO THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

MID AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS ZONAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER TO SPEAK OF OTHER THAN THE APPROACH
OF A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE COLD
AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AT THE ONSET OF ANY PRECIPITATION
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

NAM ADVERTISES A 40-50 KT H925-H850 LLJ DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH BRINGS IN A WARM NOSE OF AT LEAST
+5C. TYPICALLY THE NAM HANDLES THE WARM NOSE BETTER THAN THE GFS SO
EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT MAY DEVELOP DURING THAT TIME FRAME TO
MELT ALOFT. THE REST DEPENDS ON BOUNDARY LAYER AND SFC TEMPS. WITH A
DECENT SNOW PACK STILL IN PLACE...ONLY A BRIEF FEW HOURS OF TEMPS
ABOVE FREEZING SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND A 5-6 INCH FROST DEPTH
EXPECT MUCH OF THE AREA WOULD BE AT RISK FOR A WINTRY MIX AT THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION.

OTHERWISE WE ARE LOOKING AT ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT TONIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AREA...MID TEENS FOR THE REST. CONSEQUENTLY...ANY MELTING OF SFC
SNOWFALL AND ICE WILL REFREEZE OVERNIGHT. SOME AREA ROAD WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO SEE SOME ISOLD SLICK SPOTS. TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A
EFFORT TO REBOUND TOMORROW BUT INCOMING CLOUD COVER MAY DAMPEN THE
WARM UP CONSIDERABLY. FOR NOW WENT MORE OPTIMISTIC AND TOOK
AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S...NEAR 40 FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

EXPECT FIELD MIN CIGS TO DEVELOP AT JUST ABOUT EVERY TAF SITE AS
A GOOD AREA OF RAIN ARRIVES INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING AND INTO
THE DAY TODAY. EXPECT SOME IFR VISIBILITY AS WELL. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD
AND PAST 00Z TONIGHT. AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW
WITH SOME LOCATIONS SEEING SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN VIS. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH DAWN BEFORE
THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 10 KNOTS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ088-
106>115-117>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER




000
FXUS63 KJKL 010843
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
343 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS KENTUCKY AS OF 0820Z HAVE CONTINUED
NORTHEAST MOVEMENT OF CLOUD COVER AND SOME RETURNS ON THE MOSAIC.
AT THIS POINT...THIS PSEUDO WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT
NORTH THROUGH KY WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WELL TO THE NORTH
ACROSS THE OH RIVER. IN FACT...THE ONLY MEASURABLE PRECIP AT THE
MESONET SITES WAS WELL NORTH OF I-64 IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY. WHILE
SURFACE AIR TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL ACROSS THE AREA...MOST LIKELY
DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING MORE THAN DIURNAL TRENDS...IT IS TO BE
NOTED THAT THE ROAD TEMPS REMAIN UP IN THE MID 30S THROUGH THE
MORNING SO FAR. THE MOISTURE MOVING IN OVERHEAD IS HAVING QUITE A
TOUGH TIME SATURATING THE LOWER LEVELS. FOR THIS...WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE SPS. THE HRRR AND NAM MODELS DO HAVE PRECIP FURTHER
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF KY IN THE 09Z TO 12Z
HOURS. IF THIS AREA DOES DEVELOP AS ROBUST AS IT IS...THERE MAY BE
A 1 TO 2 HOUR PERIOD WHERE A HUNDREDTH OR TWO OF FREEZING PRECIP
MAY FALL. HOWEVER...TIMING HERE WILL BE AN ISSUE AS WELL AS TEMPS
WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND AND WARM UP AFTER DAWN. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...QUITE A TEDIOUS SITUATION BETWEEN ALL THE ELEMENTS IN PLAY
THIS SUNDAY MORNING.

HEADING INTO THE DAY...THE MOISTURE INFLUX CONTINUES WITH RAIN
ANTICIPATED ALL DAY AND FOR ONCE...WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AT
THE SURFACE LATER TODAY ALLOWING WARMER TEMPS INTO THE AREA AS
HIGHS TODAY WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S. HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST SAGS SOUTH OF THE TN BORDER AND
COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND TONIGHT. AS THE DEPTH OF THE
MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT BECOMES SHALLOW...CAA WILL CHANGE
PRECIP TO ALL SNOW. THERE MAY BE A SHORT PERIOD OF RAIN MIXED IN
BEFORE THE COMPLETE CHANGE OVER. BECAUSE OF THE LOSS OF
MOISTURE...MOST LOCATIONS WILL ONLY SEE A DUSTING. EXIT OF THIS
FEATURE WILL OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER DAWN ON MONDAY WITH A NICE
REBOUND FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY CLIMBING INTO THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

MID AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS ZONAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER TO SPEAK OF OTHER THAN THE APPROACH
OF A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE COLD
AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AT THE ONSET OF ANY PRECIPITATION
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

NAM ADVERTISES A 40-50 KT H925-H850 LLJ DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH BRINGS IN A WARM NOSE OF AT LEAST
+5C. TYPICALLY THE NAM HANDLES THE WARM NOSE BETTER THAN THE GFS SO
EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT MAY DEVELOP DURING THAT TIME FRAME TO
MELT ALOFT. THE REST DEPENDS ON BOUNDARY LAYER AND SFC TEMPS. WITH A
DECENT SNOW PACK STILL IN PLACE...ONLY A BRIEF FEW HOURS OF TEMPS
ABOVE FREEZING SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND A 5-6 INCH FROST DEPTH
EXPECT MUCH OF THE AREA WOULD BE AT RISK FOR A WINTRY MIX AT THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION.

OTHERWISE WE ARE LOOKING AT ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT TONIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AREA...MID TEENS FOR THE REST. CONSEQUENTLY...ANY MELTING OF SFC
SNOWFALL AND ICE WILL REFREEZE OVERNIGHT. SOME AREA ROAD WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO SEE SOME ISOLD SLICK SPOTS. TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A
EFFORT TO REBOUND TOMORROW BUT INCOMING CLOUD COVER MAY DAMPEN THE
WARM UP CONSIDERABLY. FOR NOW WENT MORE OPTIMISTIC AND TOOK
AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S...NEAR 40 FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD
BEFORE CIGS FINALLY BEGIN TO LOWER AS MORE MOISTURE ARRIVES INTO
THE AREA WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING BY 10Z IN MOST LOCATIONS. AFTER
THIS TRANSPIRES...PREDOMINATE FIELD MIN CIGS DEVELOP AT JUST
ABOUT EVERY TAF SITE AS A GOOD AREA OF RAIN ARRIVES INTO THE AREA.
EXPECT SOME IFR VISIBILITY AS WELL. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD AND PAST 00Z TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH DAWN
BEFORE THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 10 KNOTS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER




000
FXUS63 KJKL 010843
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
343 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS KENTUCKY AS OF 0820Z HAVE CONTINUED
NORTHEAST MOVEMENT OF CLOUD COVER AND SOME RETURNS ON THE MOSAIC.
AT THIS POINT...THIS PSEUDO WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT
NORTH THROUGH KY WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WELL TO THE NORTH
ACROSS THE OH RIVER. IN FACT...THE ONLY MEASURABLE PRECIP AT THE
MESONET SITES WAS WELL NORTH OF I-64 IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY. WHILE
SURFACE AIR TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL ACROSS THE AREA...MOST LIKELY
DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING MORE THAN DIURNAL TRENDS...IT IS TO BE
NOTED THAT THE ROAD TEMPS REMAIN UP IN THE MID 30S THROUGH THE
MORNING SO FAR. THE MOISTURE MOVING IN OVERHEAD IS HAVING QUITE A
TOUGH TIME SATURATING THE LOWER LEVELS. FOR THIS...WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE SPS. THE HRRR AND NAM MODELS DO HAVE PRECIP FURTHER
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF KY IN THE 09Z TO 12Z
HOURS. IF THIS AREA DOES DEVELOP AS ROBUST AS IT IS...THERE MAY BE
A 1 TO 2 HOUR PERIOD WHERE A HUNDREDTH OR TWO OF FREEZING PRECIP
MAY FALL. HOWEVER...TIMING HERE WILL BE AN ISSUE AS WELL AS TEMPS
WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND AND WARM UP AFTER DAWN. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...QUITE A TEDIOUS SITUATION BETWEEN ALL THE ELEMENTS IN PLAY
THIS SUNDAY MORNING.

HEADING INTO THE DAY...THE MOISTURE INFLUX CONTINUES WITH RAIN
ANTICIPATED ALL DAY AND FOR ONCE...WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AT
THE SURFACE LATER TODAY ALLOWING WARMER TEMPS INTO THE AREA AS
HIGHS TODAY WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S. HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST SAGS SOUTH OF THE TN BORDER AND
COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND TONIGHT. AS THE DEPTH OF THE
MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT BECOMES SHALLOW...CAA WILL CHANGE
PRECIP TO ALL SNOW. THERE MAY BE A SHORT PERIOD OF RAIN MIXED IN
BEFORE THE COMPLETE CHANGE OVER. BECAUSE OF THE LOSS OF
MOISTURE...MOST LOCATIONS WILL ONLY SEE A DUSTING. EXIT OF THIS
FEATURE WILL OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER DAWN ON MONDAY WITH A NICE
REBOUND FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY CLIMBING INTO THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

MID AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS ZONAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER TO SPEAK OF OTHER THAN THE APPROACH
OF A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE COLD
AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AT THE ONSET OF ANY PRECIPITATION
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

NAM ADVERTISES A 40-50 KT H925-H850 LLJ DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH BRINGS IN A WARM NOSE OF AT LEAST
+5C. TYPICALLY THE NAM HANDLES THE WARM NOSE BETTER THAN THE GFS SO
EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT MAY DEVELOP DURING THAT TIME FRAME TO
MELT ALOFT. THE REST DEPENDS ON BOUNDARY LAYER AND SFC TEMPS. WITH A
DECENT SNOW PACK STILL IN PLACE...ONLY A BRIEF FEW HOURS OF TEMPS
ABOVE FREEZING SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND A 5-6 INCH FROST DEPTH
EXPECT MUCH OF THE AREA WOULD BE AT RISK FOR A WINTRY MIX AT THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION.

OTHERWISE WE ARE LOOKING AT ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT TONIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AREA...MID TEENS FOR THE REST. CONSEQUENTLY...ANY MELTING OF SFC
SNOWFALL AND ICE WILL REFREEZE OVERNIGHT. SOME AREA ROAD WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO SEE SOME ISOLD SLICK SPOTS. TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A
EFFORT TO REBOUND TOMORROW BUT INCOMING CLOUD COVER MAY DAMPEN THE
WARM UP CONSIDERABLY. FOR NOW WENT MORE OPTIMISTIC AND TOOK
AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S...NEAR 40 FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD
BEFORE CIGS FINALLY BEGIN TO LOWER AS MORE MOISTURE ARRIVES INTO
THE AREA WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING BY 10Z IN MOST LOCATIONS. AFTER
THIS TRANSPIRES...PREDOMINATE FIELD MIN CIGS DEVELOP AT JUST
ABOUT EVERY TAF SITE AS A GOOD AREA OF RAIN ARRIVES INTO THE AREA.
EXPECT SOME IFR VISIBILITY AS WELL. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD AND PAST 00Z TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH DAWN
BEFORE THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 10 KNOTS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER





000
FXUS63 KJKL 010843
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
343 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS KENTUCKY AS OF 0820Z HAVE CONTINUED
NORTHEAST MOVEMENT OF CLOUD COVER AND SOME RETURNS ON THE MOSAIC.
AT THIS POINT...THIS PSEUDO WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT
NORTH THROUGH KY WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WELL TO THE NORTH
ACROSS THE OH RIVER. IN FACT...THE ONLY MEASURABLE PRECIP AT THE
MESONET SITES WAS WELL NORTH OF I-64 IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY. WHILE
SURFACE AIR TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL ACROSS THE AREA...MOST LIKELY
DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING MORE THAN DIURNAL TRENDS...IT IS TO BE
NOTED THAT THE ROAD TEMPS REMAIN UP IN THE MID 30S THROUGH THE
MORNING SO FAR. THE MOISTURE MOVING IN OVERHEAD IS HAVING QUITE A
TOUGH TIME SATURATING THE LOWER LEVELS. FOR THIS...WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE SPS. THE HRRR AND NAM MODELS DO HAVE PRECIP FURTHER
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF KY IN THE 09Z TO 12Z
HOURS. IF THIS AREA DOES DEVELOP AS ROBUST AS IT IS...THERE MAY BE
A 1 TO 2 HOUR PERIOD WHERE A HUNDREDTH OR TWO OF FREEZING PRECIP
MAY FALL. HOWEVER...TIMING HERE WILL BE AN ISSUE AS WELL AS TEMPS
WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND AND WARM UP AFTER DAWN. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...QUITE A TEDIOUS SITUATION BETWEEN ALL THE ELEMENTS IN PLAY
THIS SUNDAY MORNING.

HEADING INTO THE DAY...THE MOISTURE INFLUX CONTINUES WITH RAIN
ANTICIPATED ALL DAY AND FOR ONCE...WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AT
THE SURFACE LATER TODAY ALLOWING WARMER TEMPS INTO THE AREA AS
HIGHS TODAY WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S. HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST SAGS SOUTH OF THE TN BORDER AND
COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND TONIGHT. AS THE DEPTH OF THE
MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT BECOMES SHALLOW...CAA WILL CHANGE
PRECIP TO ALL SNOW. THERE MAY BE A SHORT PERIOD OF RAIN MIXED IN
BEFORE THE COMPLETE CHANGE OVER. BECAUSE OF THE LOSS OF
MOISTURE...MOST LOCATIONS WILL ONLY SEE A DUSTING. EXIT OF THIS
FEATURE WILL OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER DAWN ON MONDAY WITH A NICE
REBOUND FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY CLIMBING INTO THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

MID AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS ZONAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER TO SPEAK OF OTHER THAN THE APPROACH
OF A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE COLD
AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AT THE ONSET OF ANY PRECIPITATION
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

NAM ADVERTISES A 40-50 KT H925-H850 LLJ DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH BRINGS IN A WARM NOSE OF AT LEAST
+5C. TYPICALLY THE NAM HANDLES THE WARM NOSE BETTER THAN THE GFS SO
EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT MAY DEVELOP DURING THAT TIME FRAME TO
MELT ALOFT. THE REST DEPENDS ON BOUNDARY LAYER AND SFC TEMPS. WITH A
DECENT SNOW PACK STILL IN PLACE...ONLY A BRIEF FEW HOURS OF TEMPS
ABOVE FREEZING SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND A 5-6 INCH FROST DEPTH
EXPECT MUCH OF THE AREA WOULD BE AT RISK FOR A WINTRY MIX AT THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION.

OTHERWISE WE ARE LOOKING AT ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT TONIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AREA...MID TEENS FOR THE REST. CONSEQUENTLY...ANY MELTING OF SFC
SNOWFALL AND ICE WILL REFREEZE OVERNIGHT. SOME AREA ROAD WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO SEE SOME ISOLD SLICK SPOTS. TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A
EFFORT TO REBOUND TOMORROW BUT INCOMING CLOUD COVER MAY DAMPEN THE
WARM UP CONSIDERABLY. FOR NOW WENT MORE OPTIMISTIC AND TOOK
AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S...NEAR 40 FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD
BEFORE CIGS FINALLY BEGIN TO LOWER AS MORE MOISTURE ARRIVES INTO
THE AREA WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING BY 10Z IN MOST LOCATIONS. AFTER
THIS TRANSPIRES...PREDOMINATE FIELD MIN CIGS DEVELOP AT JUST
ABOUT EVERY TAF SITE AS A GOOD AREA OF RAIN ARRIVES INTO THE AREA.
EXPECT SOME IFR VISIBILITY AS WELL. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD AND PAST 00Z TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH DAWN
BEFORE THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 10 KNOTS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER




000
FXUS63 KJKL 010843
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
343 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS KENTUCKY AS OF 0820Z HAVE CONTINUED
NORTHEAST MOVEMENT OF CLOUD COVER AND SOME RETURNS ON THE MOSAIC.
AT THIS POINT...THIS PSEUDO WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT
NORTH THROUGH KY WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WELL TO THE NORTH
ACROSS THE OH RIVER. IN FACT...THE ONLY MEASURABLE PRECIP AT THE
MESONET SITES WAS WELL NORTH OF I-64 IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY. WHILE
SURFACE AIR TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL ACROSS THE AREA...MOST LIKELY
DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING MORE THAN DIURNAL TRENDS...IT IS TO BE
NOTED THAT THE ROAD TEMPS REMAIN UP IN THE MID 30S THROUGH THE
MORNING SO FAR. THE MOISTURE MOVING IN OVERHEAD IS HAVING QUITE A
TOUGH TIME SATURATING THE LOWER LEVELS. FOR THIS...WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE SPS. THE HRRR AND NAM MODELS DO HAVE PRECIP FURTHER
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF KY IN THE 09Z TO 12Z
HOURS. IF THIS AREA DOES DEVELOP AS ROBUST AS IT IS...THERE MAY BE
A 1 TO 2 HOUR PERIOD WHERE A HUNDREDTH OR TWO OF FREEZING PRECIP
MAY FALL. HOWEVER...TIMING HERE WILL BE AN ISSUE AS WELL AS TEMPS
WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND AND WARM UP AFTER DAWN. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...QUITE A TEDIOUS SITUATION BETWEEN ALL THE ELEMENTS IN PLAY
THIS SUNDAY MORNING.

HEADING INTO THE DAY...THE MOISTURE INFLUX CONTINUES WITH RAIN
ANTICIPATED ALL DAY AND FOR ONCE...WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AT
THE SURFACE LATER TODAY ALLOWING WARMER TEMPS INTO THE AREA AS
HIGHS TODAY WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S. HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST SAGS SOUTH OF THE TN BORDER AND
COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND TONIGHT. AS THE DEPTH OF THE
MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT BECOMES SHALLOW...CAA WILL CHANGE
PRECIP TO ALL SNOW. THERE MAY BE A SHORT PERIOD OF RAIN MIXED IN
BEFORE THE COMPLETE CHANGE OVER. BECAUSE OF THE LOSS OF
MOISTURE...MOST LOCATIONS WILL ONLY SEE A DUSTING. EXIT OF THIS
FEATURE WILL OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER DAWN ON MONDAY WITH A NICE
REBOUND FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY CLIMBING INTO THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

MID AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS ZONAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER TO SPEAK OF OTHER THAN THE APPROACH
OF A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE COLD
AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AT THE ONSET OF ANY PRECIPITATION
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

NAM ADVERTISES A 40-50 KT H925-H850 LLJ DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH BRINGS IN A WARM NOSE OF AT LEAST
+5C. TYPICALLY THE NAM HANDLES THE WARM NOSE BETTER THAN THE GFS SO
EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT MAY DEVELOP DURING THAT TIME FRAME TO
MELT ALOFT. THE REST DEPENDS ON BOUNDARY LAYER AND SFC TEMPS. WITH A
DECENT SNOW PACK STILL IN PLACE...ONLY A BRIEF FEW HOURS OF TEMPS
ABOVE FREEZING SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND A 5-6 INCH FROST DEPTH
EXPECT MUCH OF THE AREA WOULD BE AT RISK FOR A WINTRY MIX AT THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION.

OTHERWISE WE ARE LOOKING AT ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT TONIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AREA...MID TEENS FOR THE REST. CONSEQUENTLY...ANY MELTING OF SFC
SNOWFALL AND ICE WILL REFREEZE OVERNIGHT. SOME AREA ROAD WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO SEE SOME ISOLD SLICK SPOTS. TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A
EFFORT TO REBOUND TOMORROW BUT INCOMING CLOUD COVER MAY DAMPEN THE
WARM UP CONSIDERABLY. FOR NOW WENT MORE OPTIMISTIC AND TOOK
AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S...NEAR 40 FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD
BEFORE CIGS FINALLY BEGIN TO LOWER AS MORE MOISTURE ARRIVES INTO
THE AREA WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING BY 10Z IN MOST LOCATIONS. AFTER
THIS TRANSPIRES...PREDOMINATE FIELD MIN CIGS DEVELOP AT JUST
ABOUT EVERY TAF SITE AS A GOOD AREA OF RAIN ARRIVES INTO THE AREA.
EXPECT SOME IFR VISIBILITY AS WELL. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD AND PAST 00Z TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH DAWN
BEFORE THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 10 KNOTS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER





000
FXUS63 KJKL 010712
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
212 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 212 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MAIN SURGE OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STAY TO THE NORTH AS OF
07Z WITH ONLY LIGHT RETURNS...LIKELY VIRGA...OVER THE BLUEGRASS
REGION. MESONETS IN CENTRAL KY WELL NORTH OF I-64 ARE THE ONLY
LOCATIONS INDICATING MEASURABLE  PRECIP. THOUGH AIR TEMPS ACROSS
THE AREA ARE REACHING FREEZING IN THE BLUEGRASS AREAS BUT
ALSO...AS CONCERNING AS THIS IS...IN SOME OF THE DEEPER VALLEYS IN
THE FAR EAST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY...SUCH AS THE PAINTSVILLE MESONET
WHERE A CHILLY 30 DEGREES IS DISPLAYED. AS WELL...MOST DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE STILL A GOOD 10 DEGREES PLUS IN MANY AREAS. IN
ADDITION...HI RES MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR SHOW PRECIP HOLDING OFF
UNTIL 10Z AND AFTER. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS HERE IS THAT THE BULK
OF THE MOISTURE WILL STAY NORTH WHILE WHAT RESIDUAL MOISTURE
ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL NOT BE ABLE TO SATURATING THE
LAYER FOR PRECIP TO REACH THE SURFACE. ONCE THIS DOES OCCUR...THE
CURRENT ROAD TEMPS...NOW IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WOULD SUGGEST A
SUBSTANTIAL COOL DOWN NEEDED FOR ICE ON ROADWAYS TO DEVELOP. THESE
TEMPS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER DAWN WHEN TEMPS WARM AGAIN. DUE
TO THE THREAT AND THE FACT THAT 0.01 OF FZRA COULD OCCUR...THIS
STILL NEEDS TO BE A SLIGHT REMINDER SO HAVE REISSUED THE SPS
THROUGH DAWN.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

MADE SOME MORE TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES. SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS ARE
ALREADY DOWN TO 31 DEGREES WITH SEVERAL MORE RIGHT ON THEIR HEELS.
DO NOT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO GET TOO MUCH COLDER AS CLOUDS ARE
SPREAD INTO THE REGION AND SHOULD HALT THEIR FALL. HOWEVER...THE
QUESTION CONTINUES...WILL THESE TEMPERATURES COME BACK UP PRIOR TO
PRECIPITATION ONSET LATE TONIGHT. AS IT APPEARS NOW...THIS MAY BE
A STRUGGLE AND THUS...THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT CONTINUES. HRRR HAS
BEGUN TO FLUCTUATE ON PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AROUND DAWN...BUT
THE LATEST RUN HAS IT BACK IN THERE. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NOW AS STILL NOT CERTAIN HOW MUCH FREEZING
RAIN WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR AND WHETHER IT HAS ANY IMPACT AS GROUND
TEMPERATURES RECOVERED FAIRLY WELL WITH THE SUNSHINE EARLIER
TODAY. OUTSIDE OF SOME TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES...WILL MAINTAIN THE
FORECAST AS IS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 715 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

OPTED FOR A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET/SNOW POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT. LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE
HRRR HAVE SHOWN PRETTY GOOD PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT AFTER 09Z
TONIGHT. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER TEMPERATURES CAN STAY
ABOVE FREEZING...IT CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE A SETUP FOR SOME FREEZING
RAIN. WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE...SOME SLEET MAY BE POSSIBLE EARLY
ON AS WELL. ANY SNOW POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY STAY TO THE NORTH AS
THE WARM NOSE POKES ACROSS THE AREA. TWEAKED TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND RE RAN THE WEATHER TO MATCH THE
EXPECTED TRANSITION ZONES THROUGH DAYBREAK. WE SHOULD SEE A
TRANSITION TO RAIN SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK AS ANY REMAINING COLD
AIR GETS SCOURED OUT IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SRLY DIRECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF EXITING
HIGH PRESSURE THIS EVENING...CREATING A PSEUDO WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALONG A DEVELOPING LLVL JET. OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL
THEN DEVELOP BY THIS EVENING IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...INTO INDIANA AS WELL AS OHIO. THIS WILL BRING PRECIP
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A FEW CONCERNS WITH THIS SYSTEM...NAMELY A LIGHT
ICE AND SNOW POTENTIAL.

LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE CONTINUING TO SUPPORT A STEADY OR
GRADUAL WARMING OF TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS...
CLOUD COVER...AND PRECIP TAKE CONTROL. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
ANTECEDENT COLD CONDITIONS...IT IS LIKELY THAT EVEN AS SURFACE TEMPS
SLOWLY RISE...THE PAVEMENT AND GROUND TEMPS WILL TAKE AN HOUR TO 3
HOURS LONGER. TEMPERATURES IN THE LLVLS WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING
BETWEEN 0 AND 6Z...HOWEVER...SURFACE TEMPS WILL LIKELY LAG BEHIND BY
A FEW HOURS. THIS WILL CREATE THE SET UP FOR SOME SNOW/IP POTENTIAL
JUST AT ONSET /AND CONTINUING IN THE NORTH FOR A BIT LONGER/...THEN
A FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL GIVEN THE LATEST NAM12 AND GFS40 FORECAST
SOUNDINGS THROUGH AROUND 12Z...BEFORE SURFACE TEMPS FINALLY WARM
ENOUGH ACROSS THE REGION THAT ALL PRECIP FALLS AS RAIN AFTER 12Z TO
15Z. GIVEN THE WARMER SRLY FLOW TOMORROW...TEMPS WILL FINALLY
INCREASE TO CLOSER TO SEASONABLE NORMAL VALUES DURING THE
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

FROM HERE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE
CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH SOME CONTINUOUS/WIDESPREAD RAINFALL POSSIBLE. RAIN WILL
THEN CHANGE BACK OVER TO SNOW AS TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING AFTER
DARK...BEFORE FINALLY LOSING INTENSITY AND TAPERING OFF MONDAY
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
PATTERN TO RULE ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OUT WEST WILL RESULT IN DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO SETTING UP ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A STOUT BAROCLINIC ZONE TO MEANDER THROUGH THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH MUCH
WARMER AND WETTER AIR BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHARP COOL DOWN...WITH ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION GOING OVER TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING THE WORK WEEK COLD
AND DRY.

DETAILS ON HOW ALL OF THIS EVOLVES CONTINUES TO BE LOWER
CONFIDENCE UNTIL WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE EVENT...SO HAVE
STUCK CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SOLUTIONS. IN GENERAL...THE MODELS
SEEM TO BE COUPLING THE MOISTURE AND BEST FORCING INITIALLY
FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST...RESULTING IN NOT QUITE AS SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH GENERALLY 2 TO 3 INCHES FORECAST. STILL...THIS
WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING CONCERNS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN AN ONGOING HYDROLOGIC
OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITATION MAY START OUT AS A WINTRY MIX LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY IT CAN COOL DOWN AS
WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THICKER CLOUDS OVERSPREAD
THE AREA ONCE AGAIN. A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH ON
TUESDAY...WITH RAINY CONDITIONS MOVING IN. THE COLD FRONT WILL
FOLLOW AND VERY GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING THE BULK OF THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT...WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION GOING OVER TO
SNOW...WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. AFTER ENJOYING
HIGHS IN THE 50S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...READINGS WILL FALL BACK
INTO THE 20S AND 30S FOR THURSDAY...WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT NEAR
THE 10 DEGREE MARK FRIDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE 40S
FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD
BEFORE CIGS FINALLY BEGIN TO LOWER AS MORE MOISTURE ARRIVES INTO
THE AREA WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING BY 10Z IN MOST LOCATIONS. AFTER
THIS TRANSPIRES...PREDOMINATE FIELD MIN CIGS DEVELOP AT JUST
ABOUT EVERY TAF SITE AS A GOOD AREA OF RAIN ARRIVES INTO THE AREA.
EXPECT SOME IFR VISIBILITY AS WELL. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD AND PAST 00Z TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH DAWN
BEFORE THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 10 KNOTS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...SHALLENBERGER
UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER




000
FXUS63 KJKL 010712
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
212 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 212 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MAIN SURGE OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STAY TO THE NORTH AS OF
07Z WITH ONLY LIGHT RETURNS...LIKELY VIRGA...OVER THE BLUEGRASS
REGION. MESONETS IN CENTRAL KY WELL NORTH OF I-64 ARE THE ONLY
LOCATIONS INDICATING MEASURABLE  PRECIP. THOUGH AIR TEMPS ACROSS
THE AREA ARE REACHING FREEZING IN THE BLUEGRASS AREAS BUT
ALSO...AS CONCERNING AS THIS IS...IN SOME OF THE DEEPER VALLEYS IN
THE FAR EAST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY...SUCH AS THE PAINTSVILLE MESONET
WHERE A CHILLY 30 DEGREES IS DISPLAYED. AS WELL...MOST DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE STILL A GOOD 10 DEGREES PLUS IN MANY AREAS. IN
ADDITION...HI RES MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR SHOW PRECIP HOLDING OFF
UNTIL 10Z AND AFTER. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS HERE IS THAT THE BULK
OF THE MOISTURE WILL STAY NORTH WHILE WHAT RESIDUAL MOISTURE
ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL NOT BE ABLE TO SATURATING THE
LAYER FOR PRECIP TO REACH THE SURFACE. ONCE THIS DOES OCCUR...THE
CURRENT ROAD TEMPS...NOW IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WOULD SUGGEST A
SUBSTANTIAL COOL DOWN NEEDED FOR ICE ON ROADWAYS TO DEVELOP. THESE
TEMPS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER DAWN WHEN TEMPS WARM AGAIN. DUE
TO THE THREAT AND THE FACT THAT 0.01 OF FZRA COULD OCCUR...THIS
STILL NEEDS TO BE A SLIGHT REMINDER SO HAVE REISSUED THE SPS
THROUGH DAWN.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

MADE SOME MORE TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES. SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS ARE
ALREADY DOWN TO 31 DEGREES WITH SEVERAL MORE RIGHT ON THEIR HEELS.
DO NOT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO GET TOO MUCH COLDER AS CLOUDS ARE
SPREAD INTO THE REGION AND SHOULD HALT THEIR FALL. HOWEVER...THE
QUESTION CONTINUES...WILL THESE TEMPERATURES COME BACK UP PRIOR TO
PRECIPITATION ONSET LATE TONIGHT. AS IT APPEARS NOW...THIS MAY BE
A STRUGGLE AND THUS...THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT CONTINUES. HRRR HAS
BEGUN TO FLUCTUATE ON PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AROUND DAWN...BUT
THE LATEST RUN HAS IT BACK IN THERE. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NOW AS STILL NOT CERTAIN HOW MUCH FREEZING
RAIN WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR AND WHETHER IT HAS ANY IMPACT AS GROUND
TEMPERATURES RECOVERED FAIRLY WELL WITH THE SUNSHINE EARLIER
TODAY. OUTSIDE OF SOME TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES...WILL MAINTAIN THE
FORECAST AS IS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 715 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

OPTED FOR A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET/SNOW POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT. LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE
HRRR HAVE SHOWN PRETTY GOOD PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT AFTER 09Z
TONIGHT. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER TEMPERATURES CAN STAY
ABOVE FREEZING...IT CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE A SETUP FOR SOME FREEZING
RAIN. WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE...SOME SLEET MAY BE POSSIBLE EARLY
ON AS WELL. ANY SNOW POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY STAY TO THE NORTH AS
THE WARM NOSE POKES ACROSS THE AREA. TWEAKED TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND RE RAN THE WEATHER TO MATCH THE
EXPECTED TRANSITION ZONES THROUGH DAYBREAK. WE SHOULD SEE A
TRANSITION TO RAIN SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK AS ANY REMAINING COLD
AIR GETS SCOURED OUT IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SRLY DIRECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF EXITING
HIGH PRESSURE THIS EVENING...CREATING A PSEUDO WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALONG A DEVELOPING LLVL JET. OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL
THEN DEVELOP BY THIS EVENING IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...INTO INDIANA AS WELL AS OHIO. THIS WILL BRING PRECIP
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A FEW CONCERNS WITH THIS SYSTEM...NAMELY A LIGHT
ICE AND SNOW POTENTIAL.

LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE CONTINUING TO SUPPORT A STEADY OR
GRADUAL WARMING OF TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS...
CLOUD COVER...AND PRECIP TAKE CONTROL. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
ANTECEDENT COLD CONDITIONS...IT IS LIKELY THAT EVEN AS SURFACE TEMPS
SLOWLY RISE...THE PAVEMENT AND GROUND TEMPS WILL TAKE AN HOUR TO 3
HOURS LONGER. TEMPERATURES IN THE LLVLS WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING
BETWEEN 0 AND 6Z...HOWEVER...SURFACE TEMPS WILL LIKELY LAG BEHIND BY
A FEW HOURS. THIS WILL CREATE THE SET UP FOR SOME SNOW/IP POTENTIAL
JUST AT ONSET /AND CONTINUING IN THE NORTH FOR A BIT LONGER/...THEN
A FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL GIVEN THE LATEST NAM12 AND GFS40 FORECAST
SOUNDINGS THROUGH AROUND 12Z...BEFORE SURFACE TEMPS FINALLY WARM
ENOUGH ACROSS THE REGION THAT ALL PRECIP FALLS AS RAIN AFTER 12Z TO
15Z. GIVEN THE WARMER SRLY FLOW TOMORROW...TEMPS WILL FINALLY
INCREASE TO CLOSER TO SEASONABLE NORMAL VALUES DURING THE
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

FROM HERE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE
CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH SOME CONTINUOUS/WIDESPREAD RAINFALL POSSIBLE. RAIN WILL
THEN CHANGE BACK OVER TO SNOW AS TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING AFTER
DARK...BEFORE FINALLY LOSING INTENSITY AND TAPERING OFF MONDAY
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
PATTERN TO RULE ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OUT WEST WILL RESULT IN DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO SETTING UP ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A STOUT BAROCLINIC ZONE TO MEANDER THROUGH THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH MUCH
WARMER AND WETTER AIR BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHARP COOL DOWN...WITH ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION GOING OVER TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING THE WORK WEEK COLD
AND DRY.

DETAILS ON HOW ALL OF THIS EVOLVES CONTINUES TO BE LOWER
CONFIDENCE UNTIL WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE EVENT...SO HAVE
STUCK CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SOLUTIONS. IN GENERAL...THE MODELS
SEEM TO BE COUPLING THE MOISTURE AND BEST FORCING INITIALLY
FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST...RESULTING IN NOT QUITE AS SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH GENERALLY 2 TO 3 INCHES FORECAST. STILL...THIS
WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING CONCERNS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN AN ONGOING HYDROLOGIC
OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITATION MAY START OUT AS A WINTRY MIX LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY IT CAN COOL DOWN AS
WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THICKER CLOUDS OVERSPREAD
THE AREA ONCE AGAIN. A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH ON
TUESDAY...WITH RAINY CONDITIONS MOVING IN. THE COLD FRONT WILL
FOLLOW AND VERY GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING THE BULK OF THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT...WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION GOING OVER TO
SNOW...WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. AFTER ENJOYING
HIGHS IN THE 50S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...READINGS WILL FALL BACK
INTO THE 20S AND 30S FOR THURSDAY...WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT NEAR
THE 10 DEGREE MARK FRIDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE 40S
FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD
BEFORE CIGS FINALLY BEGIN TO LOWER AS MORE MOISTURE ARRIVES INTO
THE AREA WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING BY 10Z IN MOST LOCATIONS. AFTER
THIS TRANSPIRES...PREDOMINATE FIELD MIN CIGS DEVELOP AT JUST
ABOUT EVERY TAF SITE AS A GOOD AREA OF RAIN ARRIVES INTO THE AREA.
EXPECT SOME IFR VISIBILITY AS WELL. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD AND PAST 00Z TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH DAWN
BEFORE THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 10 KNOTS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...SHALLENBERGER
UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER





000
FXUS63 KJKL 010712
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
212 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 212 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MAIN SURGE OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STAY TO THE NORTH AS OF
07Z WITH ONLY LIGHT RETURNS...LIKELY VIRGA...OVER THE BLUEGRASS
REGION. MESONETS IN CENTRAL KY WELL NORTH OF I-64 ARE THE ONLY
LOCATIONS INDICATING MEASURABLE  PRECIP. THOUGH AIR TEMPS ACROSS
THE AREA ARE REACHING FREEZING IN THE BLUEGRASS AREAS BUT
ALSO...AS CONCERNING AS THIS IS...IN SOME OF THE DEEPER VALLEYS IN
THE FAR EAST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY...SUCH AS THE PAINTSVILLE MESONET
WHERE A CHILLY 30 DEGREES IS DISPLAYED. AS WELL...MOST DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE STILL A GOOD 10 DEGREES PLUS IN MANY AREAS. IN
ADDITION...HI RES MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR SHOW PRECIP HOLDING OFF
UNTIL 10Z AND AFTER. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS HERE IS THAT THE BULK
OF THE MOISTURE WILL STAY NORTH WHILE WHAT RESIDUAL MOISTURE
ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL NOT BE ABLE TO SATURATING THE
LAYER FOR PRECIP TO REACH THE SURFACE. ONCE THIS DOES OCCUR...THE
CURRENT ROAD TEMPS...NOW IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WOULD SUGGEST A
SUBSTANTIAL COOL DOWN NEEDED FOR ICE ON ROADWAYS TO DEVELOP. THESE
TEMPS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER DAWN WHEN TEMPS WARM AGAIN. DUE
TO THE THREAT AND THE FACT THAT 0.01 OF FZRA COULD OCCUR...THIS
STILL NEEDS TO BE A SLIGHT REMINDER SO HAVE REISSUED THE SPS
THROUGH DAWN.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

MADE SOME MORE TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES. SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS ARE
ALREADY DOWN TO 31 DEGREES WITH SEVERAL MORE RIGHT ON THEIR HEELS.
DO NOT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO GET TOO MUCH COLDER AS CLOUDS ARE
SPREAD INTO THE REGION AND SHOULD HALT THEIR FALL. HOWEVER...THE
QUESTION CONTINUES...WILL THESE TEMPERATURES COME BACK UP PRIOR TO
PRECIPITATION ONSET LATE TONIGHT. AS IT APPEARS NOW...THIS MAY BE
A STRUGGLE AND THUS...THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT CONTINUES. HRRR HAS
BEGUN TO FLUCTUATE ON PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AROUND DAWN...BUT
THE LATEST RUN HAS IT BACK IN THERE. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NOW AS STILL NOT CERTAIN HOW MUCH FREEZING
RAIN WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR AND WHETHER IT HAS ANY IMPACT AS GROUND
TEMPERATURES RECOVERED FAIRLY WELL WITH THE SUNSHINE EARLIER
TODAY. OUTSIDE OF SOME TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES...WILL MAINTAIN THE
FORECAST AS IS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 715 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

OPTED FOR A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET/SNOW POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT. LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE
HRRR HAVE SHOWN PRETTY GOOD PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT AFTER 09Z
TONIGHT. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER TEMPERATURES CAN STAY
ABOVE FREEZING...IT CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE A SETUP FOR SOME FREEZING
RAIN. WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE...SOME SLEET MAY BE POSSIBLE EARLY
ON AS WELL. ANY SNOW POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY STAY TO THE NORTH AS
THE WARM NOSE POKES ACROSS THE AREA. TWEAKED TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND RE RAN THE WEATHER TO MATCH THE
EXPECTED TRANSITION ZONES THROUGH DAYBREAK. WE SHOULD SEE A
TRANSITION TO RAIN SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK AS ANY REMAINING COLD
AIR GETS SCOURED OUT IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SRLY DIRECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF EXITING
HIGH PRESSURE THIS EVENING...CREATING A PSEUDO WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALONG A DEVELOPING LLVL JET. OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL
THEN DEVELOP BY THIS EVENING IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...INTO INDIANA AS WELL AS OHIO. THIS WILL BRING PRECIP
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A FEW CONCERNS WITH THIS SYSTEM...NAMELY A LIGHT
ICE AND SNOW POTENTIAL.

LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE CONTINUING TO SUPPORT A STEADY OR
GRADUAL WARMING OF TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS...
CLOUD COVER...AND PRECIP TAKE CONTROL. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
ANTECEDENT COLD CONDITIONS...IT IS LIKELY THAT EVEN AS SURFACE TEMPS
SLOWLY RISE...THE PAVEMENT AND GROUND TEMPS WILL TAKE AN HOUR TO 3
HOURS LONGER. TEMPERATURES IN THE LLVLS WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING
BETWEEN 0 AND 6Z...HOWEVER...SURFACE TEMPS WILL LIKELY LAG BEHIND BY
A FEW HOURS. THIS WILL CREATE THE SET UP FOR SOME SNOW/IP POTENTIAL
JUST AT ONSET /AND CONTINUING IN THE NORTH FOR A BIT LONGER/...THEN
A FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL GIVEN THE LATEST NAM12 AND GFS40 FORECAST
SOUNDINGS THROUGH AROUND 12Z...BEFORE SURFACE TEMPS FINALLY WARM
ENOUGH ACROSS THE REGION THAT ALL PRECIP FALLS AS RAIN AFTER 12Z TO
15Z. GIVEN THE WARMER SRLY FLOW TOMORROW...TEMPS WILL FINALLY
INCREASE TO CLOSER TO SEASONABLE NORMAL VALUES DURING THE
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

FROM HERE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE
CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH SOME CONTINUOUS/WIDESPREAD RAINFALL POSSIBLE. RAIN WILL
THEN CHANGE BACK OVER TO SNOW AS TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING AFTER
DARK...BEFORE FINALLY LOSING INTENSITY AND TAPERING OFF MONDAY
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
PATTERN TO RULE ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OUT WEST WILL RESULT IN DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO SETTING UP ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A STOUT BAROCLINIC ZONE TO MEANDER THROUGH THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH MUCH
WARMER AND WETTER AIR BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHARP COOL DOWN...WITH ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION GOING OVER TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING THE WORK WEEK COLD
AND DRY.

DETAILS ON HOW ALL OF THIS EVOLVES CONTINUES TO BE LOWER
CONFIDENCE UNTIL WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE EVENT...SO HAVE
STUCK CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SOLUTIONS. IN GENERAL...THE MODELS
SEEM TO BE COUPLING THE MOISTURE AND BEST FORCING INITIALLY
FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST...RESULTING IN NOT QUITE AS SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH GENERALLY 2 TO 3 INCHES FORECAST. STILL...THIS
WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING CONCERNS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN AN ONGOING HYDROLOGIC
OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITATION MAY START OUT AS A WINTRY MIX LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY IT CAN COOL DOWN AS
WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THICKER CLOUDS OVERSPREAD
THE AREA ONCE AGAIN. A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH ON
TUESDAY...WITH RAINY CONDITIONS MOVING IN. THE COLD FRONT WILL
FOLLOW AND VERY GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING THE BULK OF THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT...WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION GOING OVER TO
SNOW...WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. AFTER ENJOYING
HIGHS IN THE 50S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...READINGS WILL FALL BACK
INTO THE 20S AND 30S FOR THURSDAY...WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT NEAR
THE 10 DEGREE MARK FRIDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE 40S
FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD
BEFORE CIGS FINALLY BEGIN TO LOWER AS MORE MOISTURE ARRIVES INTO
THE AREA WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING BY 10Z IN MOST LOCATIONS. AFTER
THIS TRANSPIRES...PREDOMINATE FIELD MIN CIGS DEVELOP AT JUST
ABOUT EVERY TAF SITE AS A GOOD AREA OF RAIN ARRIVES INTO THE AREA.
EXPECT SOME IFR VISIBILITY AS WELL. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD AND PAST 00Z TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH DAWN
BEFORE THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 10 KNOTS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...SHALLENBERGER
UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER




000
FXUS63 KJKL 010534
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1234 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

MADE SOME MORE TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES. SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS ARE
ALREADY DOWN TO 31 DEGREES WITH SEVERAL MORE RIGHT ON THEIR HEELS.
DO NOT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO GET TOO MUCH COLDER AS CLOUDS ARE
SPREAD INTO THE REGION AND SHOULD HALT THEIR FALL. HOWEVER...THE
QUESTION CONTINUES...WILL THESE TEMPERATURES COME BACK UP PRIOR TO
PRECIPITATION ONSET LATE TONIGHT. AS IT APPEARS NOW...THIS MAY BE
A STRUGGLE AND THUS...THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT CONTINUES. HRRR HAS
BEGUN TO FLUCTUATE ON PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AROUND DAWN...BUT
THE LATEST RUN HAS IT BACK IN THERE. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NOW AS STILL NOT CERTAIN HOW MUCH FREEZING
RAIN WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR AND WHETHER IT HAS ANY IMPACT AS GROUND
TEMPERATURES RECOVERED FAIRLY WELL WITH THE SUNSHINE EARLIER
TODAY. OUTSIDE OF SOME TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES...WILL MAINTAIN THE
FORECAST AS IS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 715 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

OPTED FOR A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET/SNOW POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT. LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE
HRRR HAVE SHOWN PRETTY GOOD PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT AFTER 09Z
TONIGHT. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER TEMPERATURES CAN STAY
ABOVE FREEZING...IT CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE A SETUP FOR SOME FREEZING
RAIN. WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE...SOME SLEET MAY BE POSSIBLE EARLY
ON AS WELL. ANY SNOW POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY STAY TO THE NORTH AS
THE WARM NOSE POKES ACROSS THE AREA. TWEAKED TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND RE RAN THE WEATHER TO MATCH THE
EXPECTED TRANSITION ZONES THROUGH DAYBREAK. WE SHOULD SEE A
TRANSITION TO RAIN SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK AS ANY REMAINING COLD
AIR GETS SCOURED OUT IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SRLY DIRECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF EXITING
HIGH PRESSURE THIS EVENING...CREATING A PSEUDO WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALONG A DEVELOPING LLVL JET. OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL
THEN DEVELOP BY THIS EVENING IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...INTO INDIANA AS WELL AS OHIO. THIS WILL BRING PRECIP
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A FEW CONCERNS WITH THIS SYSTEM...NAMELY A LIGHT
ICE AND SNOW POTENTIAL.

LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE CONTINUING TO SUPPORT A STEADY OR
GRADUAL WARMING OF TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS...
CLOUD COVER...AND PRECIP TAKE CONTROL. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
ANTECEDENT COLD CONDITIONS...IT IS LIKELY THAT EVEN AS SURFACE TEMPS
SLOWLY RISE...THE PAVEMENT AND GROUND TEMPS WILL TAKE AN HOUR TO 3
HOURS LONGER. TEMPERATURES IN THE LLVLS WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING
BETWEEN 0 AND 6Z...HOWEVER...SURFACE TEMPS WILL LIKELY LAG BEHIND BY
A FEW HOURS. THIS WILL CREATE THE SET UP FOR SOME SNOW/IP POTENTIAL
JUST AT ONSET /AND CONTINUING IN THE NORTH FOR A BIT LONGER/...THEN
A FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL GIVEN THE LATEST NAM12 AND GFS40 FORECAST
SOUNDINGS THROUGH AROUND 12Z...BEFORE SURFACE TEMPS FINALLY WARM
ENOUGH ACROSS THE REGION THAT ALL PRECIP FALLS AS RAIN AFTER 12Z TO
15Z. GIVEN THE WARMER SRLY FLOW TOMORROW...TEMPS WILL FINALLY
INCREASE TO CLOSER TO SEASONABLE NORMAL VALUES DURING THE
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

FROM HERE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE
CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH SOME CONTINUOUS/WIDESPREAD RAINFALL POSSIBLE. RAIN WILL
THEN CHANGE BACK OVER TO SNOW AS TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING AFTER
DARK...BEFORE FINALLY LOSING INTENSITY AND TAPERING OFF MONDAY
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
PATTERN TO RULE ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OUT WEST WILL RESULT IN DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO SETTING UP ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A STOUT BAROCLINIC ZONE TO MEANDER THROUGH THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH MUCH
WARMER AND WETTER AIR BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHARP COOL DOWN...WITH ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION GOING OVER TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING THE WORK WEEK COLD
AND DRY.

DETAILS ON HOW ALL OF THIS EVOLVES CONTINUES TO BE LOWER
CONFIDENCE UNTIL WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE EVENT...SO HAVE
STUCK CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SOLUTIONS. IN GENERAL...THE MODELS
SEEM TO BE COUPLING THE MOISTURE AND BEST FORCING INITIALLY
FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST...RESULTING IN NOT QUITE AS SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH GENERALLY 2 TO 3 INCHES FORECAST. STILL...THIS
WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING CONCERNS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN AN ONGOING HYDROLOGIC
OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITATION MAY START OUT AS A WINTRY MIX LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY IT CAN COOL DOWN AS
WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THICKER CLOUDS OVERSPREAD
THE AREA ONCE AGAIN. A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH ON
TUESDAY...WITH RAINY CONDITIONS MOVING IN. THE COLD FRONT WILL
FOLLOW AND VERY GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING THE BULK OF THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT...WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION GOING OVER TO
SNOW...WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. AFTER ENJOYING
HIGHS IN THE 50S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...READINGS WILL FALL BACK
INTO THE 20S AND 30S FOR THURSDAY...WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT NEAR
THE 10 DEGREE MARK FRIDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE 40S
FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD
BEFORE CIGS FINALLY BEGIN TO LOWER AS MORE MOISTURE ARRIVES INTO
THE AREA WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING BY 10Z IN MOST LOCATIONS. AFTER
THIS TRANSPIRES...PREDOMINATE FIELD MIN CIGS DEVELOP AT JUST
ABOUT EVERY TAF SITE AS A GOOD AREA OF RAIN ARRIVES INTO THE AREA.
EXPECT SOME IFR VISIBILITY AS WELL. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD AND PAST 00Z TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH DAWN
BEFORE THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 10 KNOTS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER




000
FXUS63 KJKL 010534
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1234 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

MADE SOME MORE TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES. SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS ARE
ALREADY DOWN TO 31 DEGREES WITH SEVERAL MORE RIGHT ON THEIR HEELS.
DO NOT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO GET TOO MUCH COLDER AS CLOUDS ARE
SPREAD INTO THE REGION AND SHOULD HALT THEIR FALL. HOWEVER...THE
QUESTION CONTINUES...WILL THESE TEMPERATURES COME BACK UP PRIOR TO
PRECIPITATION ONSET LATE TONIGHT. AS IT APPEARS NOW...THIS MAY BE
A STRUGGLE AND THUS...THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT CONTINUES. HRRR HAS
BEGUN TO FLUCTUATE ON PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AROUND DAWN...BUT
THE LATEST RUN HAS IT BACK IN THERE. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NOW AS STILL NOT CERTAIN HOW MUCH FREEZING
RAIN WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR AND WHETHER IT HAS ANY IMPACT AS GROUND
TEMPERATURES RECOVERED FAIRLY WELL WITH THE SUNSHINE EARLIER
TODAY. OUTSIDE OF SOME TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES...WILL MAINTAIN THE
FORECAST AS IS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 715 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

OPTED FOR A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET/SNOW POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT. LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE
HRRR HAVE SHOWN PRETTY GOOD PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT AFTER 09Z
TONIGHT. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER TEMPERATURES CAN STAY
ABOVE FREEZING...IT CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE A SETUP FOR SOME FREEZING
RAIN. WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE...SOME SLEET MAY BE POSSIBLE EARLY
ON AS WELL. ANY SNOW POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY STAY TO THE NORTH AS
THE WARM NOSE POKES ACROSS THE AREA. TWEAKED TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND RE RAN THE WEATHER TO MATCH THE
EXPECTED TRANSITION ZONES THROUGH DAYBREAK. WE SHOULD SEE A
TRANSITION TO RAIN SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK AS ANY REMAINING COLD
AIR GETS SCOURED OUT IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SRLY DIRECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF EXITING
HIGH PRESSURE THIS EVENING...CREATING A PSEUDO WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALONG A DEVELOPING LLVL JET. OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL
THEN DEVELOP BY THIS EVENING IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...INTO INDIANA AS WELL AS OHIO. THIS WILL BRING PRECIP
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A FEW CONCERNS WITH THIS SYSTEM...NAMELY A LIGHT
ICE AND SNOW POTENTIAL.

LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE CONTINUING TO SUPPORT A STEADY OR
GRADUAL WARMING OF TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS...
CLOUD COVER...AND PRECIP TAKE CONTROL. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
ANTECEDENT COLD CONDITIONS...IT IS LIKELY THAT EVEN AS SURFACE TEMPS
SLOWLY RISE...THE PAVEMENT AND GROUND TEMPS WILL TAKE AN HOUR TO 3
HOURS LONGER. TEMPERATURES IN THE LLVLS WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING
BETWEEN 0 AND 6Z...HOWEVER...SURFACE TEMPS WILL LIKELY LAG BEHIND BY
A FEW HOURS. THIS WILL CREATE THE SET UP FOR SOME SNOW/IP POTENTIAL
JUST AT ONSET /AND CONTINUING IN THE NORTH FOR A BIT LONGER/...THEN
A FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL GIVEN THE LATEST NAM12 AND GFS40 FORECAST
SOUNDINGS THROUGH AROUND 12Z...BEFORE SURFACE TEMPS FINALLY WARM
ENOUGH ACROSS THE REGION THAT ALL PRECIP FALLS AS RAIN AFTER 12Z TO
15Z. GIVEN THE WARMER SRLY FLOW TOMORROW...TEMPS WILL FINALLY
INCREASE TO CLOSER TO SEASONABLE NORMAL VALUES DURING THE
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

FROM HERE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE
CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH SOME CONTINUOUS/WIDESPREAD RAINFALL POSSIBLE. RAIN WILL
THEN CHANGE BACK OVER TO SNOW AS TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING AFTER
DARK...BEFORE FINALLY LOSING INTENSITY AND TAPERING OFF MONDAY
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
PATTERN TO RULE ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OUT WEST WILL RESULT IN DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO SETTING UP ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A STOUT BAROCLINIC ZONE TO MEANDER THROUGH THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH MUCH
WARMER AND WETTER AIR BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHARP COOL DOWN...WITH ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION GOING OVER TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING THE WORK WEEK COLD
AND DRY.

DETAILS ON HOW ALL OF THIS EVOLVES CONTINUES TO BE LOWER
CONFIDENCE UNTIL WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE EVENT...SO HAVE
STUCK CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SOLUTIONS. IN GENERAL...THE MODELS
SEEM TO BE COUPLING THE MOISTURE AND BEST FORCING INITIALLY
FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST...RESULTING IN NOT QUITE AS SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH GENERALLY 2 TO 3 INCHES FORECAST. STILL...THIS
WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING CONCERNS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN AN ONGOING HYDROLOGIC
OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITATION MAY START OUT AS A WINTRY MIX LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY IT CAN COOL DOWN AS
WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THICKER CLOUDS OVERSPREAD
THE AREA ONCE AGAIN. A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH ON
TUESDAY...WITH RAINY CONDITIONS MOVING IN. THE COLD FRONT WILL
FOLLOW AND VERY GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING THE BULK OF THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT...WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION GOING OVER TO
SNOW...WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. AFTER ENJOYING
HIGHS IN THE 50S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...READINGS WILL FALL BACK
INTO THE 20S AND 30S FOR THURSDAY...WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT NEAR
THE 10 DEGREE MARK FRIDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE 40S
FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD
BEFORE CIGS FINALLY BEGIN TO LOWER AS MORE MOISTURE ARRIVES INTO
THE AREA WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING BY 10Z IN MOST LOCATIONS. AFTER
THIS TRANSPIRES...PREDOMINATE FIELD MIN CIGS DEVELOP AT JUST
ABOUT EVERY TAF SITE AS A GOOD AREA OF RAIN ARRIVES INTO THE AREA.
EXPECT SOME IFR VISIBILITY AS WELL. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD AND PAST 00Z TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH DAWN
BEFORE THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 10 KNOTS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER





000
FXUS63 KJKL 010534
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1234 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

MADE SOME MORE TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES. SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS ARE
ALREADY DOWN TO 31 DEGREES WITH SEVERAL MORE RIGHT ON THEIR HEELS.
DO NOT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO GET TOO MUCH COLDER AS CLOUDS ARE
SPREAD INTO THE REGION AND SHOULD HALT THEIR FALL. HOWEVER...THE
QUESTION CONTINUES...WILL THESE TEMPERATURES COME BACK UP PRIOR TO
PRECIPITATION ONSET LATE TONIGHT. AS IT APPEARS NOW...THIS MAY BE
A STRUGGLE AND THUS...THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT CONTINUES. HRRR HAS
BEGUN TO FLUCTUATE ON PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AROUND DAWN...BUT
THE LATEST RUN HAS IT BACK IN THERE. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NOW AS STILL NOT CERTAIN HOW MUCH FREEZING
RAIN WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR AND WHETHER IT HAS ANY IMPACT AS GROUND
TEMPERATURES RECOVERED FAIRLY WELL WITH THE SUNSHINE EARLIER
TODAY. OUTSIDE OF SOME TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES...WILL MAINTAIN THE
FORECAST AS IS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 715 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

OPTED FOR A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET/SNOW POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT. LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE
HRRR HAVE SHOWN PRETTY GOOD PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT AFTER 09Z
TONIGHT. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER TEMPERATURES CAN STAY
ABOVE FREEZING...IT CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE A SETUP FOR SOME FREEZING
RAIN. WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE...SOME SLEET MAY BE POSSIBLE EARLY
ON AS WELL. ANY SNOW POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY STAY TO THE NORTH AS
THE WARM NOSE POKES ACROSS THE AREA. TWEAKED TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND RE RAN THE WEATHER TO MATCH THE
EXPECTED TRANSITION ZONES THROUGH DAYBREAK. WE SHOULD SEE A
TRANSITION TO RAIN SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK AS ANY REMAINING COLD
AIR GETS SCOURED OUT IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SRLY DIRECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF EXITING
HIGH PRESSURE THIS EVENING...CREATING A PSEUDO WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALONG A DEVELOPING LLVL JET. OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL
THEN DEVELOP BY THIS EVENING IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...INTO INDIANA AS WELL AS OHIO. THIS WILL BRING PRECIP
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A FEW CONCERNS WITH THIS SYSTEM...NAMELY A LIGHT
ICE AND SNOW POTENTIAL.

LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE CONTINUING TO SUPPORT A STEADY OR
GRADUAL WARMING OF TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS...
CLOUD COVER...AND PRECIP TAKE CONTROL. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
ANTECEDENT COLD CONDITIONS...IT IS LIKELY THAT EVEN AS SURFACE TEMPS
SLOWLY RISE...THE PAVEMENT AND GROUND TEMPS WILL TAKE AN HOUR TO 3
HOURS LONGER. TEMPERATURES IN THE LLVLS WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING
BETWEEN 0 AND 6Z...HOWEVER...SURFACE TEMPS WILL LIKELY LAG BEHIND BY
A FEW HOURS. THIS WILL CREATE THE SET UP FOR SOME SNOW/IP POTENTIAL
JUST AT ONSET /AND CONTINUING IN THE NORTH FOR A BIT LONGER/...THEN
A FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL GIVEN THE LATEST NAM12 AND GFS40 FORECAST
SOUNDINGS THROUGH AROUND 12Z...BEFORE SURFACE TEMPS FINALLY WARM
ENOUGH ACROSS THE REGION THAT ALL PRECIP FALLS AS RAIN AFTER 12Z TO
15Z. GIVEN THE WARMER SRLY FLOW TOMORROW...TEMPS WILL FINALLY
INCREASE TO CLOSER TO SEASONABLE NORMAL VALUES DURING THE
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

FROM HERE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE
CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH SOME CONTINUOUS/WIDESPREAD RAINFALL POSSIBLE. RAIN WILL
THEN CHANGE BACK OVER TO SNOW AS TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING AFTER
DARK...BEFORE FINALLY LOSING INTENSITY AND TAPERING OFF MONDAY
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
PATTERN TO RULE ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OUT WEST WILL RESULT IN DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO SETTING UP ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A STOUT BAROCLINIC ZONE TO MEANDER THROUGH THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH MUCH
WARMER AND WETTER AIR BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHARP COOL DOWN...WITH ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION GOING OVER TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING THE WORK WEEK COLD
AND DRY.

DETAILS ON HOW ALL OF THIS EVOLVES CONTINUES TO BE LOWER
CONFIDENCE UNTIL WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE EVENT...SO HAVE
STUCK CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SOLUTIONS. IN GENERAL...THE MODELS
SEEM TO BE COUPLING THE MOISTURE AND BEST FORCING INITIALLY
FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST...RESULTING IN NOT QUITE AS SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH GENERALLY 2 TO 3 INCHES FORECAST. STILL...THIS
WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING CONCERNS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN AN ONGOING HYDROLOGIC
OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITATION MAY START OUT AS A WINTRY MIX LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY IT CAN COOL DOWN AS
WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THICKER CLOUDS OVERSPREAD
THE AREA ONCE AGAIN. A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH ON
TUESDAY...WITH RAINY CONDITIONS MOVING IN. THE COLD FRONT WILL
FOLLOW AND VERY GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING THE BULK OF THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT...WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION GOING OVER TO
SNOW...WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. AFTER ENJOYING
HIGHS IN THE 50S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...READINGS WILL FALL BACK
INTO THE 20S AND 30S FOR THURSDAY...WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT NEAR
THE 10 DEGREE MARK FRIDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE 40S
FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD
BEFORE CIGS FINALLY BEGIN TO LOWER AS MORE MOISTURE ARRIVES INTO
THE AREA WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING BY 10Z IN MOST LOCATIONS. AFTER
THIS TRANSPIRES...PREDOMINATE FIELD MIN CIGS DEVELOP AT JUST
ABOUT EVERY TAF SITE AS A GOOD AREA OF RAIN ARRIVES INTO THE AREA.
EXPECT SOME IFR VISIBILITY AS WELL. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD AND PAST 00Z TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH DAWN
BEFORE THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 10 KNOTS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER




000
FXUS63 KJKL 010534
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1234 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

MADE SOME MORE TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES. SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS ARE
ALREADY DOWN TO 31 DEGREES WITH SEVERAL MORE RIGHT ON THEIR HEELS.
DO NOT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO GET TOO MUCH COLDER AS CLOUDS ARE
SPREAD INTO THE REGION AND SHOULD HALT THEIR FALL. HOWEVER...THE
QUESTION CONTINUES...WILL THESE TEMPERATURES COME BACK UP PRIOR TO
PRECIPITATION ONSET LATE TONIGHT. AS IT APPEARS NOW...THIS MAY BE
A STRUGGLE AND THUS...THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT CONTINUES. HRRR HAS
BEGUN TO FLUCTUATE ON PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AROUND DAWN...BUT
THE LATEST RUN HAS IT BACK IN THERE. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NOW AS STILL NOT CERTAIN HOW MUCH FREEZING
RAIN WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR AND WHETHER IT HAS ANY IMPACT AS GROUND
TEMPERATURES RECOVERED FAIRLY WELL WITH THE SUNSHINE EARLIER
TODAY. OUTSIDE OF SOME TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES...WILL MAINTAIN THE
FORECAST AS IS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 715 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

OPTED FOR A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET/SNOW POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT. LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE
HRRR HAVE SHOWN PRETTY GOOD PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT AFTER 09Z
TONIGHT. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER TEMPERATURES CAN STAY
ABOVE FREEZING...IT CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE A SETUP FOR SOME FREEZING
RAIN. WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE...SOME SLEET MAY BE POSSIBLE EARLY
ON AS WELL. ANY SNOW POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY STAY TO THE NORTH AS
THE WARM NOSE POKES ACROSS THE AREA. TWEAKED TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND RE RAN THE WEATHER TO MATCH THE
EXPECTED TRANSITION ZONES THROUGH DAYBREAK. WE SHOULD SEE A
TRANSITION TO RAIN SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK AS ANY REMAINING COLD
AIR GETS SCOURED OUT IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SRLY DIRECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF EXITING
HIGH PRESSURE THIS EVENING...CREATING A PSEUDO WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALONG A DEVELOPING LLVL JET. OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL
THEN DEVELOP BY THIS EVENING IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...INTO INDIANA AS WELL AS OHIO. THIS WILL BRING PRECIP
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A FEW CONCERNS WITH THIS SYSTEM...NAMELY A LIGHT
ICE AND SNOW POTENTIAL.

LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE CONTINUING TO SUPPORT A STEADY OR
GRADUAL WARMING OF TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS...
CLOUD COVER...AND PRECIP TAKE CONTROL. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
ANTECEDENT COLD CONDITIONS...IT IS LIKELY THAT EVEN AS SURFACE TEMPS
SLOWLY RISE...THE PAVEMENT AND GROUND TEMPS WILL TAKE AN HOUR TO 3
HOURS LONGER. TEMPERATURES IN THE LLVLS WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING
BETWEEN 0 AND 6Z...HOWEVER...SURFACE TEMPS WILL LIKELY LAG BEHIND BY
A FEW HOURS. THIS WILL CREATE THE SET UP FOR SOME SNOW/IP POTENTIAL
JUST AT ONSET /AND CONTINUING IN THE NORTH FOR A BIT LONGER/...THEN
A FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL GIVEN THE LATEST NAM12 AND GFS40 FORECAST
SOUNDINGS THROUGH AROUND 12Z...BEFORE SURFACE TEMPS FINALLY WARM
ENOUGH ACROSS THE REGION THAT ALL PRECIP FALLS AS RAIN AFTER 12Z TO
15Z. GIVEN THE WARMER SRLY FLOW TOMORROW...TEMPS WILL FINALLY
INCREASE TO CLOSER TO SEASONABLE NORMAL VALUES DURING THE
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

FROM HERE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE
CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH SOME CONTINUOUS/WIDESPREAD RAINFALL POSSIBLE. RAIN WILL
THEN CHANGE BACK OVER TO SNOW AS TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING AFTER
DARK...BEFORE FINALLY LOSING INTENSITY AND TAPERING OFF MONDAY
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
PATTERN TO RULE ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OUT WEST WILL RESULT IN DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO SETTING UP ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A STOUT BAROCLINIC ZONE TO MEANDER THROUGH THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH MUCH
WARMER AND WETTER AIR BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHARP COOL DOWN...WITH ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION GOING OVER TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING THE WORK WEEK COLD
AND DRY.

DETAILS ON HOW ALL OF THIS EVOLVES CONTINUES TO BE LOWER
CONFIDENCE UNTIL WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE EVENT...SO HAVE
STUCK CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SOLUTIONS. IN GENERAL...THE MODELS
SEEM TO BE COUPLING THE MOISTURE AND BEST FORCING INITIALLY
FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST...RESULTING IN NOT QUITE AS SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH GENERALLY 2 TO 3 INCHES FORECAST. STILL...THIS
WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING CONCERNS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN AN ONGOING HYDROLOGIC
OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITATION MAY START OUT AS A WINTRY MIX LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY IT CAN COOL DOWN AS
WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THICKER CLOUDS OVERSPREAD
THE AREA ONCE AGAIN. A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH ON
TUESDAY...WITH RAINY CONDITIONS MOVING IN. THE COLD FRONT WILL
FOLLOW AND VERY GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING THE BULK OF THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT...WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION GOING OVER TO
SNOW...WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. AFTER ENJOYING
HIGHS IN THE 50S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...READINGS WILL FALL BACK
INTO THE 20S AND 30S FOR THURSDAY...WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT NEAR
THE 10 DEGREE MARK FRIDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE 40S
FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD
BEFORE CIGS FINALLY BEGIN TO LOWER AS MORE MOISTURE ARRIVES INTO
THE AREA WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING BY 10Z IN MOST LOCATIONS. AFTER
THIS TRANSPIRES...PREDOMINATE FIELD MIN CIGS DEVELOP AT JUST
ABOUT EVERY TAF SITE AS A GOOD AREA OF RAIN ARRIVES INTO THE AREA.
EXPECT SOME IFR VISIBILITY AS WELL. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD AND PAST 00Z TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH DAWN
BEFORE THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 10 KNOTS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER





000
FXUS63 KJKL 010258
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
958 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

MADE SOME MORE TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES. SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS ARE
ALREADY DOWN TO 31 DEGREES WITH SEVERAL MORE RIGHT ON THEIR HEELS.
DO NOT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO GET TOO MUCH COLDER AS CLOUDS ARE
SPREAD INTO THE REGION AND SHOULD HALT THEIR FALL. HOWEVER...THE
QUESTION CONTINUES...WILL THESE TEMPERATURES COME BACK UP PRIOR TO
PRECIPITATION ONSET LATE TONIGHT. AS IT APPEARS NOW...THIS MAY BE
A STRUGGLE AND THUS...THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT CONTINUES. HRRR HAS
BEGUN TO FLUCTUATE ON PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AROUND DAWN...BUT
THE LATEST RUN HAS IT BACK IN THERE. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NOW AS STILL NOT CERTAIN HOW MUCH FREEZING
RAIN WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR AND WHETHER IT HAS ANY IMPACT AS GROUND
TEMPERATURES RECOVERED FAIRLY WELL WITH THE SUNSHINE EARLIER
TODAY. OUTSIDE OF SOME TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES...WILL MAINTAIN THE
FORECAST AS IS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 715 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

OPTED FOR A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET/SNOW POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT. LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE
HRRR HAVE SHOWN PRETTY GOOD PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT AFTER 09Z
TONIGHT. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER TEMPERATURES CAN STAY
ABOVE FREEZING...IT CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE A SETUP FOR SOME FREEZING
RAIN. WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE...SOME SLEET MAY BE POSSIBLE EARLY
ON AS WELL. ANY SNOW POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY STAY TO THE NORTH AS
THE WARM NOSE POKES ACROSS THE AREA. TWEAKED TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND RE RAN THE WEATHER TO MATCH THE
EXPECTED TRANSITION ZONES THROUGH DAYBREAK. WE SHOULD SEE A
TRANSITION TO RAIN SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK AS ANY REMAINING COLD
AIR GETS SCOURED OUT IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SRLY DIRECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF EXITING
HIGH PRESSURE THIS EVENING...CREATING A PSEUDO WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALONG A DEVELOPING LLVL JET. OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL
THEN DEVELOP BY THIS EVENING IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...INTO INDIANA AS WELL AS OHIO. THIS WILL BRING PRECIP
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A FEW CONCERNS WITH THIS SYSTEM...NAMELY A LIGHT
ICE AND SNOW POTENTIAL.

LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE CONTINUING TO SUPPORT A STEADY OR
GRADUAL WARMING OF TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS...
CLOUD COVER...AND PRECIP TAKE CONTROL. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
ANTECEDENT COLD CONDITIONS...IT IS LIKELY THAT EVEN AS SURFACE TEMPS
SLOWLY RISE...THE PAVEMENT AND GROUND TEMPS WILL TAKE AN HOUR TO 3
HOURS LONGER. TEMPERATURES IN THE LLVLS WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING
BETWEEN 0 AND 6Z...HOWEVER...SURFACE TEMPS WILL LIKELY LAG BEHIND BY
A FEW HOURS. THIS WILL CREATE THE SET UP FOR SOME SNOW/IP POTENTIAL
JUST AT ONSET /AND CONTINUING IN THE NORTH FOR A BIT LONGER/...THEN
A FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL GIVEN THE LATEST NAM12 AND GFS40 FORECAST
SOUNDINGS THROUGH AROUND 12Z...BEFORE SURFACE TEMPS FINALLY WARM
ENOUGH ACROSS THE REGION THAT ALL PRECIP FALLS AS RAIN AFTER 12Z TO
15Z. GIVEN THE WARMER SRLY FLOW TOMORROW...TEMPS WILL FINALLY
INCREASE TO CLOSER TO SEASONABLE NORMAL VALUES DURING THE
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

FROM HERE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE
CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH SOME CONTINUOUS/WIDESPREAD RAINFALL POSSIBLE. RAIN WILL
THEN CHANGE BACK OVER TO SNOW AS TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING AFTER
DARK...BEFORE FINALLY LOSING INTENSITY AND TAPERING OFF MONDAY
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
PATTERN TO RULE ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OUT WEST WILL RESULT IN DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO SETTING UP ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A STOUT BAROCLINIC ZONE TO MEANDER THROUGH THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH MUCH
WARMER AND WETTER AIR BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHARP COOL DOWN...WITH ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION GOING OVER TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING THE WORK WEEK COLD
AND DRY.

DETAILS ON HOW ALL OF THIS EVOLVES CONTINUES TO BE LOWER
CONFIDENCE UNTIL WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE EVENT...SO HAVE
STUCK CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SOLUTIONS. IN GENERAL...THE MODELS
SEEM TO BE COUPLING THE MOISTURE AND BEST FORCING INITIALLY
FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST...RESULTING IN NOT QUITE AS SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH GENERALLY 2 TO 3 INCHES FORECAST. STILL...THIS
WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING CONCERNS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN AN ONGOING HYDROLOGIC
OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITATION MAY START OUT AS A WINTRY MIX LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY IT CAN COOL DOWN AS
WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THICKER CLOUDS OVERSPREAD
THE AREA ONCE AGAIN. A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH ON
TUESDAY...WITH RAINY CONDITIONS MOVING IN. THE COLD FRONT WILL
FOLLOW AND VERY GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING THE BULK OF THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT...WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION GOING OVER TO
SNOW...WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. AFTER ENJOYING
HIGHS IN THE 50S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...READINGS WILL FALL BACK
INTO THE 20S AND 30S FOR THURSDAY...WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT NEAR
THE 10 DEGREE MARK FRIDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE 40S
FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 715 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LAST INTO THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT...BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE
TRANSPORTED INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH CIG HEIGHTS LOWERING LATE
TONIGHT. SOME MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK. IN
ADDITION...SOME SLEET/FREEZING RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AROUND
DAYBREAK...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN BY MID MORNING.
CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST TOMORROW IS NOT HIGH AND THUS...CIG
FORECAST REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN. ITS POSSIBLE SOME MVFR CIGS MAY
HOLD ON THROUGH THE DAY...BUT SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD ERODE THESE
AWAY THROUGH THE DAY WITH A SLIGHT DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT.
REGARDLESS...AT THE VERY LEAST...WE SHOULD SEE A MIX OF VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS. SOME RAIN SHOWERS COULD ALSO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...KAS





000
FXUS63 KJKL 010258
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
958 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

MADE SOME MORE TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES. SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS ARE
ALREADY DOWN TO 31 DEGREES WITH SEVERAL MORE RIGHT ON THEIR HEELS.
DO NOT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO GET TOO MUCH COLDER AS CLOUDS ARE
SPREAD INTO THE REGION AND SHOULD HALT THEIR FALL. HOWEVER...THE
QUESTION CONTINUES...WILL THESE TEMPERATURES COME BACK UP PRIOR TO
PRECIPITATION ONSET LATE TONIGHT. AS IT APPEARS NOW...THIS MAY BE
A STRUGGLE AND THUS...THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT CONTINUES. HRRR HAS
BEGUN TO FLUCTUATE ON PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AROUND DAWN...BUT
THE LATEST RUN HAS IT BACK IN THERE. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NOW AS STILL NOT CERTAIN HOW MUCH FREEZING
RAIN WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR AND WHETHER IT HAS ANY IMPACT AS GROUND
TEMPERATURES RECOVERED FAIRLY WELL WITH THE SUNSHINE EARLIER
TODAY. OUTSIDE OF SOME TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES...WILL MAINTAIN THE
FORECAST AS IS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 715 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

OPTED FOR A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET/SNOW POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT. LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE
HRRR HAVE SHOWN PRETTY GOOD PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT AFTER 09Z
TONIGHT. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER TEMPERATURES CAN STAY
ABOVE FREEZING...IT CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE A SETUP FOR SOME FREEZING
RAIN. WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE...SOME SLEET MAY BE POSSIBLE EARLY
ON AS WELL. ANY SNOW POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY STAY TO THE NORTH AS
THE WARM NOSE POKES ACROSS THE AREA. TWEAKED TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND RE RAN THE WEATHER TO MATCH THE
EXPECTED TRANSITION ZONES THROUGH DAYBREAK. WE SHOULD SEE A
TRANSITION TO RAIN SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK AS ANY REMAINING COLD
AIR GETS SCOURED OUT IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SRLY DIRECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF EXITING
HIGH PRESSURE THIS EVENING...CREATING A PSEUDO WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALONG A DEVELOPING LLVL JET. OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL
THEN DEVELOP BY THIS EVENING IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...INTO INDIANA AS WELL AS OHIO. THIS WILL BRING PRECIP
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A FEW CONCERNS WITH THIS SYSTEM...NAMELY A LIGHT
ICE AND SNOW POTENTIAL.

LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE CONTINUING TO SUPPORT A STEADY OR
GRADUAL WARMING OF TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS...
CLOUD COVER...AND PRECIP TAKE CONTROL. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
ANTECEDENT COLD CONDITIONS...IT IS LIKELY THAT EVEN AS SURFACE TEMPS
SLOWLY RISE...THE PAVEMENT AND GROUND TEMPS WILL TAKE AN HOUR TO 3
HOURS LONGER. TEMPERATURES IN THE LLVLS WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING
BETWEEN 0 AND 6Z...HOWEVER...SURFACE TEMPS WILL LIKELY LAG BEHIND BY
A FEW HOURS. THIS WILL CREATE THE SET UP FOR SOME SNOW/IP POTENTIAL
JUST AT ONSET /AND CONTINUING IN THE NORTH FOR A BIT LONGER/...THEN
A FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL GIVEN THE LATEST NAM12 AND GFS40 FORECAST
SOUNDINGS THROUGH AROUND 12Z...BEFORE SURFACE TEMPS FINALLY WARM
ENOUGH ACROSS THE REGION THAT ALL PRECIP FALLS AS RAIN AFTER 12Z TO
15Z. GIVEN THE WARMER SRLY FLOW TOMORROW...TEMPS WILL FINALLY
INCREASE TO CLOSER TO SEASONABLE NORMAL VALUES DURING THE
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

FROM HERE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE
CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH SOME CONTINUOUS/WIDESPREAD RAINFALL POSSIBLE. RAIN WILL
THEN CHANGE BACK OVER TO SNOW AS TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING AFTER
DARK...BEFORE FINALLY LOSING INTENSITY AND TAPERING OFF MONDAY
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
PATTERN TO RULE ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OUT WEST WILL RESULT IN DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO SETTING UP ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A STOUT BAROCLINIC ZONE TO MEANDER THROUGH THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH MUCH
WARMER AND WETTER AIR BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHARP COOL DOWN...WITH ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION GOING OVER TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING THE WORK WEEK COLD
AND DRY.

DETAILS ON HOW ALL OF THIS EVOLVES CONTINUES TO BE LOWER
CONFIDENCE UNTIL WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE EVENT...SO HAVE
STUCK CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SOLUTIONS. IN GENERAL...THE MODELS
SEEM TO BE COUPLING THE MOISTURE AND BEST FORCING INITIALLY
FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST...RESULTING IN NOT QUITE AS SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH GENERALLY 2 TO 3 INCHES FORECAST. STILL...THIS
WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING CONCERNS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN AN ONGOING HYDROLOGIC
OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITATION MAY START OUT AS A WINTRY MIX LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY IT CAN COOL DOWN AS
WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THICKER CLOUDS OVERSPREAD
THE AREA ONCE AGAIN. A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH ON
TUESDAY...WITH RAINY CONDITIONS MOVING IN. THE COLD FRONT WILL
FOLLOW AND VERY GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING THE BULK OF THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT...WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION GOING OVER TO
SNOW...WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. AFTER ENJOYING
HIGHS IN THE 50S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...READINGS WILL FALL BACK
INTO THE 20S AND 30S FOR THURSDAY...WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT NEAR
THE 10 DEGREE MARK FRIDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE 40S
FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 715 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LAST INTO THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT...BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE
TRANSPORTED INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH CIG HEIGHTS LOWERING LATE
TONIGHT. SOME MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK. IN
ADDITION...SOME SLEET/FREEZING RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AROUND
DAYBREAK...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN BY MID MORNING.
CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST TOMORROW IS NOT HIGH AND THUS...CIG
FORECAST REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN. ITS POSSIBLE SOME MVFR CIGS MAY
HOLD ON THROUGH THE DAY...BUT SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD ERODE THESE
AWAY THROUGH THE DAY WITH A SLIGHT DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT.
REGARDLESS...AT THE VERY LEAST...WE SHOULD SEE A MIX OF VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS. SOME RAIN SHOWERS COULD ALSO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...KAS




000
FXUS63 KJKL 010015
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
715 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 715 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

OPTED FOR A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET/SNOW POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT. LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE
HRRR HAVE SHOWN PRETTY GOOD PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT AFTER 09Z
TONIGHT. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER TEMPERATURES CAN STAY
ABOVE FREEZING...IT CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE A SETUP FOR SOME FREEZING
RAIN. WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE...SOME SLEET MAY BE POSSIBLE EARLY
ON AS WELL. ANY SNOW POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY STAY TO THE NORTH AS
THE WARM NOSE POKES ACROSS THE AREA. TWEAKED TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND RE RAN THE WEATHER TO MATCH THE
EXPECTED TRANSITION ZONES THROUGH DAYBREAK. WE SHOULD SEE A
TRANSITION TO RAIN SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK AS ANY REMAINING COLD
AIR GETS SCOURED OUT IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SRLY DIRECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF EXITING
HIGH PRESSURE THIS EVENING...CREATING A PSEUDO WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALONG A DEVELOPING LLVL JET. OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL
THEN DEVELOP BY THIS EVENING IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...INTO INDIANA AS WELL AS OHIO. THIS WILL BRING PRECIP
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A FEW CONCERNS WITH THIS SYSTEM...NAMELY A LIGHT
ICE AND SNOW POTENTIAL.

LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE CONTINUING TO SUPPORT A STEADY OR
GRADUAL WARMING OF TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS...
CLOUD COVER...AND PRECIP TAKE CONTROL. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
ANTECEDENT COLD CONDITIONS...IT IS LIKELY THAT EVEN AS SURFACE TEMPS
SLOWLY RISE...THE PAVEMENT AND GROUND TEMPS WILL TAKE AN HOUR TO 3
HOURS LONGER. TEMPERATURES IN THE LLVLS WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING
BETWEEN 0 AND 6Z...HOWEVER...SURFACE TEMPS WILL LIKELY LAG BEHIND BY
A FEW HOURS. THIS WILL CREATE THE SET UP FOR SOME SNOW/IP POTENTIAL
JUST AT ONSET /AND CONTINUING IN THE NORTH FOR A BIT LONGER/...THEN
A FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL GIVEN THE LATEST NAM12 AND GFS40 FORECAST
SOUNDINGS THROUGH AROUND 12Z...BEFORE SURFACE TEMPS FINALLY WARM
ENOUGH ACROSS THE REGION THAT ALL PRECIP FALLS AS RAIN AFTER 12Z TO
15Z. GIVEN THE WARMER SRLY FLOW TOMORROW...TEMPS WILL FINALLY
INCREASE TO CLOSER TO SEASONABLE NORMAL VALUES DURING THE
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

FROM HERE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE
CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH SOME CONTINUOUS/WIDESPREAD RAINFALL POSSIBLE. RAIN WILL
THEN CHANGE BACK OVER TO SNOW AS TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING AFTER
DARK...BEFORE FINALLY LOSING INTENSITY AND TAPERING OFF MONDAY
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
PATTERN TO RULE ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OUT WEST WILL RESULT IN DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO SETTING UP ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A STOUT BAROCLINIC ZONE TO MEANDER THROUGH THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH MUCH
WARMER AND WETTER AIR BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHARP COOL DOWN...WITH ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION GOING OVER TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING THE WORK WEEK COLD
AND DRY.

DETAILS ON HOW ALL OF THIS EVOLVES CONTINUES TO BE LOWER
CONFIDENCE UNTIL WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE EVENT...SO HAVE
STUCK CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SOLUTIONS. IN GENERAL...THE MODELS
SEEM TO BE COUPLING THE MOISTURE AND BEST FORCING INITIALLY
FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST...RESULTING IN NOT QUITE AS SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH GENERALLY 2 TO 3 INCHES FORECAST. STILL...THIS
WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING CONCERNS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN AN ONGOING HYDROLOGIC
OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITATION MAY START OUT AS A WINTRY MIX LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY IT CAN COOL DOWN AS
WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THICKER CLOUDS OVERSPREAD
THE AREA ONCE AGAIN. A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH ON
TUESDAY...WITH RAINY CONDITIONS MOVING IN. THE COLD FRONT WILL
FOLLOW AND VERY GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING THE BULK OF THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT...WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION GOING OVER TO
SNOW...WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. AFTER ENJOYING
HIGHS IN THE 50S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...READINGS WILL FALL BACK
INTO THE 20S AND 30S FOR THURSDAY...WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT NEAR
THE 10 DEGREE MARK FRIDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE 40S
FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 715 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LAST INTO THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT...BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE
TRANSPORTED INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH CIG HEIGHTS LOWERING LATE
TONIGHT. SOME MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK. IN
ADDITION...SOME SLEET/FREEZING RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AROUND
DAYBREAK...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN BY MID MORNING.
CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST TOMORROW IS NOT HIGH AND THUS...CIG
FORECAST REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN. ITS POSSIBLE SOME MVFR CIGS MAY
HOLD ON THROUGH THE DAY...BUT SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD ERODE THESE
AWAY THROUGH THE DAY WITH A SLIGHT DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT.
REGARDLESS...AT THE VERY LEAST...WE SHOULD SEE A MIX OF VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS. SOME RAIN SHOWERS COULD ALSO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...KAS




000
FXUS63 KJKL 010015
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
715 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 715 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

OPTED FOR A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET/SNOW POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT. LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE
HRRR HAVE SHOWN PRETTY GOOD PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT AFTER 09Z
TONIGHT. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER TEMPERATURES CAN STAY
ABOVE FREEZING...IT CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE A SETUP FOR SOME FREEZING
RAIN. WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE...SOME SLEET MAY BE POSSIBLE EARLY
ON AS WELL. ANY SNOW POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY STAY TO THE NORTH AS
THE WARM NOSE POKES ACROSS THE AREA. TWEAKED TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND RE RAN THE WEATHER TO MATCH THE
EXPECTED TRANSITION ZONES THROUGH DAYBREAK. WE SHOULD SEE A
TRANSITION TO RAIN SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK AS ANY REMAINING COLD
AIR GETS SCOURED OUT IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SRLY DIRECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF EXITING
HIGH PRESSURE THIS EVENING...CREATING A PSEUDO WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALONG A DEVELOPING LLVL JET. OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL
THEN DEVELOP BY THIS EVENING IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...INTO INDIANA AS WELL AS OHIO. THIS WILL BRING PRECIP
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A FEW CONCERNS WITH THIS SYSTEM...NAMELY A LIGHT
ICE AND SNOW POTENTIAL.

LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE CONTINUING TO SUPPORT A STEADY OR
GRADUAL WARMING OF TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS...
CLOUD COVER...AND PRECIP TAKE CONTROL. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
ANTECEDENT COLD CONDITIONS...IT IS LIKELY THAT EVEN AS SURFACE TEMPS
SLOWLY RISE...THE PAVEMENT AND GROUND TEMPS WILL TAKE AN HOUR TO 3
HOURS LONGER. TEMPERATURES IN THE LLVLS WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING
BETWEEN 0 AND 6Z...HOWEVER...SURFACE TEMPS WILL LIKELY LAG BEHIND BY
A FEW HOURS. THIS WILL CREATE THE SET UP FOR SOME SNOW/IP POTENTIAL
JUST AT ONSET /AND CONTINUING IN THE NORTH FOR A BIT LONGER/...THEN
A FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL GIVEN THE LATEST NAM12 AND GFS40 FORECAST
SOUNDINGS THROUGH AROUND 12Z...BEFORE SURFACE TEMPS FINALLY WARM
ENOUGH ACROSS THE REGION THAT ALL PRECIP FALLS AS RAIN AFTER 12Z TO
15Z. GIVEN THE WARMER SRLY FLOW TOMORROW...TEMPS WILL FINALLY
INCREASE TO CLOSER TO SEASONABLE NORMAL VALUES DURING THE
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

FROM HERE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE
CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH SOME CONTINUOUS/WIDESPREAD RAINFALL POSSIBLE. RAIN WILL
THEN CHANGE BACK OVER TO SNOW AS TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING AFTER
DARK...BEFORE FINALLY LOSING INTENSITY AND TAPERING OFF MONDAY
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
PATTERN TO RULE ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OUT WEST WILL RESULT IN DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO SETTING UP ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A STOUT BAROCLINIC ZONE TO MEANDER THROUGH THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH MUCH
WARMER AND WETTER AIR BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHARP COOL DOWN...WITH ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION GOING OVER TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING THE WORK WEEK COLD
AND DRY.

DETAILS ON HOW ALL OF THIS EVOLVES CONTINUES TO BE LOWER
CONFIDENCE UNTIL WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE EVENT...SO HAVE
STUCK CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SOLUTIONS. IN GENERAL...THE MODELS
SEEM TO BE COUPLING THE MOISTURE AND BEST FORCING INITIALLY
FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST...RESULTING IN NOT QUITE AS SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH GENERALLY 2 TO 3 INCHES FORECAST. STILL...THIS
WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING CONCERNS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN AN ONGOING HYDROLOGIC
OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITATION MAY START OUT AS A WINTRY MIX LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY IT CAN COOL DOWN AS
WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THICKER CLOUDS OVERSPREAD
THE AREA ONCE AGAIN. A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH ON
TUESDAY...WITH RAINY CONDITIONS MOVING IN. THE COLD FRONT WILL
FOLLOW AND VERY GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING THE BULK OF THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT...WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION GOING OVER TO
SNOW...WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. AFTER ENJOYING
HIGHS IN THE 50S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...READINGS WILL FALL BACK
INTO THE 20S AND 30S FOR THURSDAY...WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT NEAR
THE 10 DEGREE MARK FRIDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE 40S
FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 715 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LAST INTO THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT...BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE
TRANSPORTED INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH CIG HEIGHTS LOWERING LATE
TONIGHT. SOME MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK. IN
ADDITION...SOME SLEET/FREEZING RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AROUND
DAYBREAK...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN BY MID MORNING.
CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST TOMORROW IS NOT HIGH AND THUS...CIG
FORECAST REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN. ITS POSSIBLE SOME MVFR CIGS MAY
HOLD ON THROUGH THE DAY...BUT SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD ERODE THESE
AWAY THROUGH THE DAY WITH A SLIGHT DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT.
REGARDLESS...AT THE VERY LEAST...WE SHOULD SEE A MIX OF VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS. SOME RAIN SHOWERS COULD ALSO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...KAS





000
FXUS63 KJKL 282151
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
451 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SRLY DIRECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF EXITING
HIGH PRESSURE THIS EVENING...CREATING A PSEUDO WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALONG A DEVELOPING LLVL JET. OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL
THEN DEVELOP BY THIS EVENING IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...INTO INDIANA AS WELL AS OHIO. THIS WILL BRING PRECIP
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A FEW CONCERNS WITH THIS SYSTEM...NAMELY A LIGHT
ICE AND SNOW POTENTIAL.

LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE CONTINUING TO SUPPORT A STEADY OR
GRADUAL WARMING OF TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS...
CLOUD COVER...AND PRECIP TAKE CONTROL. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
ANTECEDENT COLD CONDITIONS...IT IS LIKELY THAT EVEN AS SURFACE TEMPS
SLOWLY RISE...THE PAVEMENT AND GROUND TEMPS WILL TAKE AN HOUR TO 3
HOURS LONGER. TEMPERATURES IN THE LLVLS WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING
BETWEEN 0 AND 6Z...HOWEVER...SURFACE TEMPS WILL LIKELY LAG BEHIND BY
A FEW HOURS. THIS WILL CREATE THE SET UP FOR SOME SNOW/IP POTENTIAL
JUST AT ONSET /AND CONTINUING IN THE NORTH FOR A BIT LONGER/...THEN
A FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL GIVEN THE LATEST NAM12 AND GFS40 FORECAST
SOUNDINGS THROUGH AROUND 12Z...BEFORE SURFACE TEMPS FINALLY WARM
ENOUGH ACROSS THE REGION THAT ALL PRECIP FALLS AS RAIN AFTER 12Z TO
15Z. GIVEN THE WARMER SRLY FLOW TOMORROW...TEMPS WILL FINALLY
INCREASE TO CLOSER TO SEASONABLE NORMAL VALUES DURING THE
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

FROM HERE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE
CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH SOME CONTINUOUS/WIDESPREAD RAINFALL POSSIBLE. RAIN WILL
THEN CHANGE BACK OVER TO SNOW AS TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING AFTER
DARK...BEFORE FINALLY LOSING INTENSITY AND TAPERING OFF MONDAY
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
PATTERN TO RULE ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OUT WEST WILL RESULT IN DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO SETTING UP ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A STOUT BAROCLINIC ZONE TO MEANDER THROUGH THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH MUCH
WARMER AND WETTER AIR BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHARP COOL DOWN...WITH ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION GOING OVER TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING THE WORK WEEK COLD
AND DRY.

DETAILS ON HOW ALL OF THIS EVOLVES CONTINUES TO BE LOWER
CONFIDENCE UNTIL WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE EVENT...SO HAVE
STUCK CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SOLUTIONS. IN GENERAL...THE MODELS
SEEM TO BE COUPLING THE MOISTURE AND BEST FORCING INITIALLY
FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST...RESULTING IN NOT QUITE AS SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH GENERALLY 2 TO 3 INCHES FORECAST. STILL...THIS
WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING CONCERNS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN AN ONGOING HYDROLOGIC
OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITATION MAY START OUT AS A WINTRY MIX LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY IT CAN COOL DOWN AS
WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THICKER CLOUDS OVERSPREAD
THE AREA ONCE AGAIN. A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH ON
TUESDAY...WITH RAINY CONDITIONS MOVING IN. THE COLD FRONT WILL
FOLLOW AND VERY GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING THE BULK OF THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT...WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION GOING OVER TO
SNOW...WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. AFTER ENJOYING
HIGHS IN THE 50S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...READINGS WILL FALL BACK
INTO THE 20S AND 30S FOR THURSDAY...WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT NEAR
THE 10 DEGREE MARK FRIDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE 40S
FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

MID/HIGH SCT TO BKN CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO INTRUDE INTO THE
CWA FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING BOUNDARY. AS THE AREA
OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO NEAR FROM THE
WEST...EXPECT CIGS TO GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR BY LATE TONIGHT AS
LIGHT PRECIP SPREADS ACROSS THE CWA...THEN TO IFR AS PRECIP TAKES
HOLD OF THE REGION AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE FREEZING PRECIP
POTENTIAL...WITH A WARM LAYER ALOFT...AND SURFACE TEMPS NEAR
FREEZING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME THAT IT WAS
INCLUDED IN THE TAFS...BUT EXACT TIMING AND IMPACTS ARE STILL YET
TO BE PINNED DOWN. LIGHT AND MAINLY VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...INCREASING
SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...JMW





000
FXUS63 KJKL 282151
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
451 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SRLY DIRECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF EXITING
HIGH PRESSURE THIS EVENING...CREATING A PSEUDO WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALONG A DEVELOPING LLVL JET. OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL
THEN DEVELOP BY THIS EVENING IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...INTO INDIANA AS WELL AS OHIO. THIS WILL BRING PRECIP
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A FEW CONCERNS WITH THIS SYSTEM...NAMELY A LIGHT
ICE AND SNOW POTENTIAL.

LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE CONTINUING TO SUPPORT A STEADY OR
GRADUAL WARMING OF TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS...
CLOUD COVER...AND PRECIP TAKE CONTROL. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
ANTECEDENT COLD CONDITIONS...IT IS LIKELY THAT EVEN AS SURFACE TEMPS
SLOWLY RISE...THE PAVEMENT AND GROUND TEMPS WILL TAKE AN HOUR TO 3
HOURS LONGER. TEMPERATURES IN THE LLVLS WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING
BETWEEN 0 AND 6Z...HOWEVER...SURFACE TEMPS WILL LIKELY LAG BEHIND BY
A FEW HOURS. THIS WILL CREATE THE SET UP FOR SOME SNOW/IP POTENTIAL
JUST AT ONSET /AND CONTINUING IN THE NORTH FOR A BIT LONGER/...THEN
A FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL GIVEN THE LATEST NAM12 AND GFS40 FORECAST
SOUNDINGS THROUGH AROUND 12Z...BEFORE SURFACE TEMPS FINALLY WARM
ENOUGH ACROSS THE REGION THAT ALL PRECIP FALLS AS RAIN AFTER 12Z TO
15Z. GIVEN THE WARMER SRLY FLOW TOMORROW...TEMPS WILL FINALLY
INCREASE TO CLOSER TO SEASONABLE NORMAL VALUES DURING THE
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

FROM HERE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE
CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH SOME CONTINUOUS/WIDESPREAD RAINFALL POSSIBLE. RAIN WILL
THEN CHANGE BACK OVER TO SNOW AS TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING AFTER
DARK...BEFORE FINALLY LOSING INTENSITY AND TAPERING OFF MONDAY
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
PATTERN TO RULE ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OUT WEST WILL RESULT IN DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO SETTING UP ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A STOUT BAROCLINIC ZONE TO MEANDER THROUGH THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH MUCH
WARMER AND WETTER AIR BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHARP COOL DOWN...WITH ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION GOING OVER TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING THE WORK WEEK COLD
AND DRY.

DETAILS ON HOW ALL OF THIS EVOLVES CONTINUES TO BE LOWER
CONFIDENCE UNTIL WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE EVENT...SO HAVE
STUCK CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SOLUTIONS. IN GENERAL...THE MODELS
SEEM TO BE COUPLING THE MOISTURE AND BEST FORCING INITIALLY
FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST...RESULTING IN NOT QUITE AS SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH GENERALLY 2 TO 3 INCHES FORECAST. STILL...THIS
WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING CONCERNS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN AN ONGOING HYDROLOGIC
OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITATION MAY START OUT AS A WINTRY MIX LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY IT CAN COOL DOWN AS
WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THICKER CLOUDS OVERSPREAD
THE AREA ONCE AGAIN. A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH ON
TUESDAY...WITH RAINY CONDITIONS MOVING IN. THE COLD FRONT WILL
FOLLOW AND VERY GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING THE BULK OF THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT...WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION GOING OVER TO
SNOW...WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. AFTER ENJOYING
HIGHS IN THE 50S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...READINGS WILL FALL BACK
INTO THE 20S AND 30S FOR THURSDAY...WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT NEAR
THE 10 DEGREE MARK FRIDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE 40S
FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

MID/HIGH SCT TO BKN CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO INTRUDE INTO THE
CWA FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING BOUNDARY. AS THE AREA
OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO NEAR FROM THE
WEST...EXPECT CIGS TO GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR BY LATE TONIGHT AS
LIGHT PRECIP SPREADS ACROSS THE CWA...THEN TO IFR AS PRECIP TAKES
HOLD OF THE REGION AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE FREEZING PRECIP
POTENTIAL...WITH A WARM LAYER ALOFT...AND SURFACE TEMPS NEAR
FREEZING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME THAT IT WAS
INCLUDED IN THE TAFS...BUT EXACT TIMING AND IMPACTS ARE STILL YET
TO BE PINNED DOWN. LIGHT AND MAINLY VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...INCREASING
SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...JMW




000
FXUS63 KJKL 282151
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
451 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SRLY DIRECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF EXITING
HIGH PRESSURE THIS EVENING...CREATING A PSEUDO WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALONG A DEVELOPING LLVL JET. OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL
THEN DEVELOP BY THIS EVENING IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...INTO INDIANA AS WELL AS OHIO. THIS WILL BRING PRECIP
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A FEW CONCERNS WITH THIS SYSTEM...NAMELY A LIGHT
ICE AND SNOW POTENTIAL.

LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE CONTINUING TO SUPPORT A STEADY OR
GRADUAL WARMING OF TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS...
CLOUD COVER...AND PRECIP TAKE CONTROL. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
ANTECEDENT COLD CONDITIONS...IT IS LIKELY THAT EVEN AS SURFACE TEMPS
SLOWLY RISE...THE PAVEMENT AND GROUND TEMPS WILL TAKE AN HOUR TO 3
HOURS LONGER. TEMPERATURES IN THE LLVLS WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING
BETWEEN 0 AND 6Z...HOWEVER...SURFACE TEMPS WILL LIKELY LAG BEHIND BY
A FEW HOURS. THIS WILL CREATE THE SET UP FOR SOME SNOW/IP POTENTIAL
JUST AT ONSET /AND CONTINUING IN THE NORTH FOR A BIT LONGER/...THEN
A FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL GIVEN THE LATEST NAM12 AND GFS40 FORECAST
SOUNDINGS THROUGH AROUND 12Z...BEFORE SURFACE TEMPS FINALLY WARM
ENOUGH ACROSS THE REGION THAT ALL PRECIP FALLS AS RAIN AFTER 12Z TO
15Z. GIVEN THE WARMER SRLY FLOW TOMORROW...TEMPS WILL FINALLY
INCREASE TO CLOSER TO SEASONABLE NORMAL VALUES DURING THE
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

FROM HERE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE
CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH SOME CONTINUOUS/WIDESPREAD RAINFALL POSSIBLE. RAIN WILL
THEN CHANGE BACK OVER TO SNOW AS TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING AFTER
DARK...BEFORE FINALLY LOSING INTENSITY AND TAPERING OFF MONDAY
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
PATTERN TO RULE ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OUT WEST WILL RESULT IN DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO SETTING UP ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A STOUT BAROCLINIC ZONE TO MEANDER THROUGH THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH MUCH
WARMER AND WETTER AIR BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHARP COOL DOWN...WITH ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION GOING OVER TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING THE WORK WEEK COLD
AND DRY.

DETAILS ON HOW ALL OF THIS EVOLVES CONTINUES TO BE LOWER
CONFIDENCE UNTIL WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE EVENT...SO HAVE
STUCK CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SOLUTIONS. IN GENERAL...THE MODELS
SEEM TO BE COUPLING THE MOISTURE AND BEST FORCING INITIALLY
FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST...RESULTING IN NOT QUITE AS SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH GENERALLY 2 TO 3 INCHES FORECAST. STILL...THIS
WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING CONCERNS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN AN ONGOING HYDROLOGIC
OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITATION MAY START OUT AS A WINTRY MIX LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY IT CAN COOL DOWN AS
WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THICKER CLOUDS OVERSPREAD
THE AREA ONCE AGAIN. A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH ON
TUESDAY...WITH RAINY CONDITIONS MOVING IN. THE COLD FRONT WILL
FOLLOW AND VERY GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING THE BULK OF THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT...WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION GOING OVER TO
SNOW...WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. AFTER ENJOYING
HIGHS IN THE 50S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...READINGS WILL FALL BACK
INTO THE 20S AND 30S FOR THURSDAY...WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT NEAR
THE 10 DEGREE MARK FRIDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE 40S
FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

MID/HIGH SCT TO BKN CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO INTRUDE INTO THE
CWA FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING BOUNDARY. AS THE AREA
OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO NEAR FROM THE
WEST...EXPECT CIGS TO GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR BY LATE TONIGHT AS
LIGHT PRECIP SPREADS ACROSS THE CWA...THEN TO IFR AS PRECIP TAKES
HOLD OF THE REGION AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE FREEZING PRECIP
POTENTIAL...WITH A WARM LAYER ALOFT...AND SURFACE TEMPS NEAR
FREEZING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME THAT IT WAS
INCLUDED IN THE TAFS...BUT EXACT TIMING AND IMPACTS ARE STILL YET
TO BE PINNED DOWN. LIGHT AND MAINLY VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...INCREASING
SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...JMW





000
FXUS63 KJKL 282151
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
451 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SRLY DIRECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF EXITING
HIGH PRESSURE THIS EVENING...CREATING A PSEUDO WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALONG A DEVELOPING LLVL JET. OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL
THEN DEVELOP BY THIS EVENING IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...INTO INDIANA AS WELL AS OHIO. THIS WILL BRING PRECIP
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A FEW CONCERNS WITH THIS SYSTEM...NAMELY A LIGHT
ICE AND SNOW POTENTIAL.

LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE CONTINUING TO SUPPORT A STEADY OR
GRADUAL WARMING OF TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS...
CLOUD COVER...AND PRECIP TAKE CONTROL. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
ANTECEDENT COLD CONDITIONS...IT IS LIKELY THAT EVEN AS SURFACE TEMPS
SLOWLY RISE...THE PAVEMENT AND GROUND TEMPS WILL TAKE AN HOUR TO 3
HOURS LONGER. TEMPERATURES IN THE LLVLS WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING
BETWEEN 0 AND 6Z...HOWEVER...SURFACE TEMPS WILL LIKELY LAG BEHIND BY
A FEW HOURS. THIS WILL CREATE THE SET UP FOR SOME SNOW/IP POTENTIAL
JUST AT ONSET /AND CONTINUING IN THE NORTH FOR A BIT LONGER/...THEN
A FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL GIVEN THE LATEST NAM12 AND GFS40 FORECAST
SOUNDINGS THROUGH AROUND 12Z...BEFORE SURFACE TEMPS FINALLY WARM
ENOUGH ACROSS THE REGION THAT ALL PRECIP FALLS AS RAIN AFTER 12Z TO
15Z. GIVEN THE WARMER SRLY FLOW TOMORROW...TEMPS WILL FINALLY
INCREASE TO CLOSER TO SEASONABLE NORMAL VALUES DURING THE
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

FROM HERE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE
CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH SOME CONTINUOUS/WIDESPREAD RAINFALL POSSIBLE. RAIN WILL
THEN CHANGE BACK OVER TO SNOW AS TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING AFTER
DARK...BEFORE FINALLY LOSING INTENSITY AND TAPERING OFF MONDAY
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
PATTERN TO RULE ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OUT WEST WILL RESULT IN DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO SETTING UP ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A STOUT BAROCLINIC ZONE TO MEANDER THROUGH THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH MUCH
WARMER AND WETTER AIR BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHARP COOL DOWN...WITH ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION GOING OVER TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING THE WORK WEEK COLD
AND DRY.

DETAILS ON HOW ALL OF THIS EVOLVES CONTINUES TO BE LOWER
CONFIDENCE UNTIL WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE EVENT...SO HAVE
STUCK CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SOLUTIONS. IN GENERAL...THE MODELS
SEEM TO BE COUPLING THE MOISTURE AND BEST FORCING INITIALLY
FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST...RESULTING IN NOT QUITE AS SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH GENERALLY 2 TO 3 INCHES FORECAST. STILL...THIS
WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING CONCERNS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN AN ONGOING HYDROLOGIC
OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITATION MAY START OUT AS A WINTRY MIX LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY IT CAN COOL DOWN AS
WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THICKER CLOUDS OVERSPREAD
THE AREA ONCE AGAIN. A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH ON
TUESDAY...WITH RAINY CONDITIONS MOVING IN. THE COLD FRONT WILL
FOLLOW AND VERY GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING THE BULK OF THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT...WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION GOING OVER TO
SNOW...WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. AFTER ENJOYING
HIGHS IN THE 50S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...READINGS WILL FALL BACK
INTO THE 20S AND 30S FOR THURSDAY...WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT NEAR
THE 10 DEGREE MARK FRIDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE 40S
FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

MID/HIGH SCT TO BKN CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO INTRUDE INTO THE
CWA FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING BOUNDARY. AS THE AREA
OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO NEAR FROM THE
WEST...EXPECT CIGS TO GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR BY LATE TONIGHT AS
LIGHT PRECIP SPREADS ACROSS THE CWA...THEN TO IFR AS PRECIP TAKES
HOLD OF THE REGION AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE FREEZING PRECIP
POTENTIAL...WITH A WARM LAYER ALOFT...AND SURFACE TEMPS NEAR
FREEZING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME THAT IT WAS
INCLUDED IN THE TAFS...BUT EXACT TIMING AND IMPACTS ARE STILL YET
TO BE PINNED DOWN. LIGHT AND MAINLY VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...INCREASING
SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...JMW




000
FXUS63 KJKL 282053
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
353 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SRLY DIRECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF EXITING
HIGH PRESSURE THIS EVENING...CREATING A PSEUDO WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALONG A DEVELOPING LLVL JET. OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL
THEN DEVELOP BY THIS EVENING IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...INTO INDIANA AS WELL AS OHIO. THIS WILL BRING PRECIP
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A FEW CONCERNS WITH THIS SYSTEM...NAMELY A LIGHT
ICE AND SNOW POTENTIAL.

LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE CONTINUING TO SUPPORT A STEADY OR
GRADUAL WARMING OF TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS...
CLOUD COVER...AND PRECIP TAKE CONTROL. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
ANTECEDENT COLD CONDITIONS...IT IS LIKELY THAT EVEN AS SURFACE TEMPS
SLOWLY RISE...THE PAVEMENT AND GROUND TEMPS WILL TAKE AN HOUR TO 3
HOURS LONGER. TEMPERATURES IN THE LLVLS WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING
BETWEEN 0 AND 6Z...HOWEVER...SURFACE TEMPS WILL LIKELY LAG BEHIND BY
A FEW HOURS. THIS WILL CREATE THE SET UP FOR SOME SNOW/IP POTENTIAL
JUST AT ONSET /AND CONTINUING IN THE NORTH FOR A BIT LONGER/...THEN
A FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL GIVEN THE LATEST NAM12 AND GFS40 FORECAST
SOUNDINGS THROUGH AROUND 12Z...BEFORE SURFACE TEMPS FINALLY WARM
ENOUGH ACROSS THE REGION THAT ALL PRECIP FALLS AS RAIN AFTER 12Z TO
15Z. GIVEN THE WARMER SRLY FLOW TOMORROW...TEMPS WILL FINALLY
INCREASE TO CLOSER TO SEASONABLE NORMAL VALUES DURING THE
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

FROM HERE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE
CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH SOME CONTINUOUS/WIDESPREAD RAINFALL POSSIBLE. RAIN WILL
THEN CHANGE BACK OVER TO SNOW AS TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING AFTER
DARK...BEFORE FINALLY LOSING INTENSITY AND TAPERING OFF MONDAY
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

VERY ACTIVE AND MESSY WEATHER ON TAP IN THE EXTENDED. THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS WERE NOT IN THE BEST OF AGREEMENT REGARDING PRECIP
ONSET AND EVOLUTION DURING THE PERIOD...WITH THE ECMWF BEING
SLOWER AND NOT QUITE AS WET AS THE GFS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. THE
INITIAL PRECIP EVENT LOOKS TO BE IN FULL SWING SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY...AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF THE
PRECIP WITH THIS FIRST BOUNDARY SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
SOME SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND
THE DEPARTED FRONT ON MONDAY. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS SNOW
SHOULD BE MINIMAL AT BEST. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN
EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN...A SECOND MORE DYNAMIC WEATHER SYSTEM
IS PROGGED TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD...PUSHING ITS WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. MOIST AIR OVERRUNNING THE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR A MESSY
MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...AND PERHAPS SOME SNOW DURING THIS
PERIOD. LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY...WHERE A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH OF ICE MAY ACCUMULATE ON EXPOSED AND ELEVATED SURFACES. THE
AIR AT THE SURFACE SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH MY MIDMORNING ON TUESDAY
FOR THE PRECIP TO FALL AS ALL RAIN. ONCE THE WARM FRONT HAS PAST
US BY...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS THEN ON TAP TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA FOR
A COUPLE OF DAYS. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES...WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS RAIN IN AND OF ITSELF MAY LEAD TO
FLOODING ISSUES. COMBINE THIS RAIN WITH RUNOFF FROM MELTING
SNOW...AND THINGS MAY GET INTERESTING. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH
THIS EVENT WILL BE WARMING TEMPERATURES AND THE MELTING OF THE
SNOW PACK THAT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE IN THE HEADWATERS OF THE
KENTUCKY...CUMBERLAND...AND BIG SANDY RIVERS. WITH THE MODELS
STILL PRODUCING A GOOD DEAL OF PRECIP TO BEGIN THE WEEK...WE WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING NEXT WEEK.

THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY
ON THURSDAY BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OF TO OUR EAST. THE RAIN WILL
CHANGE TO SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING...AS COLD AIR BEGINS FILTERING
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTH...AND UPSLOPE FLOW BEGINS TO OCCUR...THE SNOW WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SNOW
MOVES OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THURSDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER
EAST...AND THE FRONTS PARENT TROUGH ALOFT TAKES ITS ENERGY EAST AS
WELL. LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE FINALLY COMING TO AND END JUST BEFORE 0Z FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL FLUCTUATE QUITE A BIT.
TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH
LOWS IN THE 30S AND HIGHS IN THE 40S. AFTER ANOTHER COLD NIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S IN OUR NORTH AND
THE LOWER 30S IN OUR SOUTH...THE MERCURY IS EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO
ALMOST AS WARM WITH MOST OF THE AREA LIKELY TO SEE HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S. AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SURGE OF VERY COLD AIR IS FORECAST TO
SETTLE OVER THE AREA. THURSDAY MORNINGS LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS NORTH OF I64 PERHAPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS. THIS
AIR MASS WILL MAKE ITS PRIMARY PUSH INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY TOPPING OUT MOSTLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S. FRIDAY MORNINGS LOWS WILL MARK THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH MINIMUM VALUES RANGING
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
BE SLIGHTLY WARMER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS WINDS GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST. WE WILL SEE ONLY A SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT IN TEMPERATURES TO END THE WEEK...WITH FORECAST HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 20.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

MID/HIGH SCT TO BKN CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO INTRUDE INTO THE
CWA FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING BOUNDARY. AS THE AREA
OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO NEAR FROM THE
WEST...EXPECT CIGS TO GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR BY LATE TONIGHT AS
LIGHT PRECIP SPREADS ACROSS THE CWA...THEN TO IFR AS PRECIP TAKES
HOLD OF THE REGION AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE FREEZING PRECIP
POTENTIAL...WITH A WARM LAYER ALOFT...AND SURFACE TEMPS NEAR
FREEZING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME THAT IT WAS
INCLUDED IN THE TAFS...BUT EXACT TIMING AND IMPACTS ARE STILL YET
TO BE PINNED DOWN. LIGHT AND MAINLY VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...INCREASING
SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JMW





000
FXUS63 KJKL 282053
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
353 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SRLY DIRECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF EXITING
HIGH PRESSURE THIS EVENING...CREATING A PSEUDO WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALONG A DEVELOPING LLVL JET. OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL
THEN DEVELOP BY THIS EVENING IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...INTO INDIANA AS WELL AS OHIO. THIS WILL BRING PRECIP
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A FEW CONCERNS WITH THIS SYSTEM...NAMELY A LIGHT
ICE AND SNOW POTENTIAL.

LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE CONTINUING TO SUPPORT A STEADY OR
GRADUAL WARMING OF TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS...
CLOUD COVER...AND PRECIP TAKE CONTROL. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
ANTECEDENT COLD CONDITIONS...IT IS LIKELY THAT EVEN AS SURFACE TEMPS
SLOWLY RISE...THE PAVEMENT AND GROUND TEMPS WILL TAKE AN HOUR TO 3
HOURS LONGER. TEMPERATURES IN THE LLVLS WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING
BETWEEN 0 AND 6Z...HOWEVER...SURFACE TEMPS WILL LIKELY LAG BEHIND BY
A FEW HOURS. THIS WILL CREATE THE SET UP FOR SOME SNOW/IP POTENTIAL
JUST AT ONSET /AND CONTINUING IN THE NORTH FOR A BIT LONGER/...THEN
A FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL GIVEN THE LATEST NAM12 AND GFS40 FORECAST
SOUNDINGS THROUGH AROUND 12Z...BEFORE SURFACE TEMPS FINALLY WARM
ENOUGH ACROSS THE REGION THAT ALL PRECIP FALLS AS RAIN AFTER 12Z TO
15Z. GIVEN THE WARMER SRLY FLOW TOMORROW...TEMPS WILL FINALLY
INCREASE TO CLOSER TO SEASONABLE NORMAL VALUES DURING THE
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

FROM HERE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE
CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH SOME CONTINUOUS/WIDESPREAD RAINFALL POSSIBLE. RAIN WILL
THEN CHANGE BACK OVER TO SNOW AS TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING AFTER
DARK...BEFORE FINALLY LOSING INTENSITY AND TAPERING OFF MONDAY
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

VERY ACTIVE AND MESSY WEATHER ON TAP IN THE EXTENDED. THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS WERE NOT IN THE BEST OF AGREEMENT REGARDING PRECIP
ONSET AND EVOLUTION DURING THE PERIOD...WITH THE ECMWF BEING
SLOWER AND NOT QUITE AS WET AS THE GFS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. THE
INITIAL PRECIP EVENT LOOKS TO BE IN FULL SWING SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY...AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF THE
PRECIP WITH THIS FIRST BOUNDARY SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
SOME SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND
THE DEPARTED FRONT ON MONDAY. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS SNOW
SHOULD BE MINIMAL AT BEST. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN
EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN...A SECOND MORE DYNAMIC WEATHER SYSTEM
IS PROGGED TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD...PUSHING ITS WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. MOIST AIR OVERRUNNING THE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR A MESSY
MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...AND PERHAPS SOME SNOW DURING THIS
PERIOD. LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY...WHERE A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH OF ICE MAY ACCUMULATE ON EXPOSED AND ELEVATED SURFACES. THE
AIR AT THE SURFACE SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH MY MIDMORNING ON TUESDAY
FOR THE PRECIP TO FALL AS ALL RAIN. ONCE THE WARM FRONT HAS PAST
US BY...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS THEN ON TAP TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA FOR
A COUPLE OF DAYS. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES...WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS RAIN IN AND OF ITSELF MAY LEAD TO
FLOODING ISSUES. COMBINE THIS RAIN WITH RUNOFF FROM MELTING
SNOW...AND THINGS MAY GET INTERESTING. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH
THIS EVENT WILL BE WARMING TEMPERATURES AND THE MELTING OF THE
SNOW PACK THAT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE IN THE HEADWATERS OF THE
KENTUCKY...CUMBERLAND...AND BIG SANDY RIVERS. WITH THE MODELS
STILL PRODUCING A GOOD DEAL OF PRECIP TO BEGIN THE WEEK...WE WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING NEXT WEEK.

THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY
ON THURSDAY BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OF TO OUR EAST. THE RAIN WILL
CHANGE TO SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING...AS COLD AIR BEGINS FILTERING
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTH...AND UPSLOPE FLOW BEGINS TO OCCUR...THE SNOW WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SNOW
MOVES OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THURSDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER
EAST...AND THE FRONTS PARENT TROUGH ALOFT TAKES ITS ENERGY EAST AS
WELL. LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE FINALLY COMING TO AND END JUST BEFORE 0Z FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL FLUCTUATE QUITE A BIT.
TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH
LOWS IN THE 30S AND HIGHS IN THE 40S. AFTER ANOTHER COLD NIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S IN OUR NORTH AND
THE LOWER 30S IN OUR SOUTH...THE MERCURY IS EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO
ALMOST AS WARM WITH MOST OF THE AREA LIKELY TO SEE HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S. AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SURGE OF VERY COLD AIR IS FORECAST TO
SETTLE OVER THE AREA. THURSDAY MORNINGS LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS NORTH OF I64 PERHAPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS. THIS
AIR MASS WILL MAKE ITS PRIMARY PUSH INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY TOPPING OUT MOSTLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S. FRIDAY MORNINGS LOWS WILL MARK THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH MINIMUM VALUES RANGING
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
BE SLIGHTLY WARMER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS WINDS GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST. WE WILL SEE ONLY A SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT IN TEMPERATURES TO END THE WEEK...WITH FORECAST HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 20.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

MID/HIGH SCT TO BKN CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO INTRUDE INTO THE
CWA FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING BOUNDARY. AS THE AREA
OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO NEAR FROM THE
WEST...EXPECT CIGS TO GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR BY LATE TONIGHT AS
LIGHT PRECIP SPREADS ACROSS THE CWA...THEN TO IFR AS PRECIP TAKES
HOLD OF THE REGION AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE FREEZING PRECIP
POTENTIAL...WITH A WARM LAYER ALOFT...AND SURFACE TEMPS NEAR
FREEZING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME THAT IT WAS
INCLUDED IN THE TAFS...BUT EXACT TIMING AND IMPACTS ARE STILL YET
TO BE PINNED DOWN. LIGHT AND MAINLY VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...INCREASING
SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JMW




000
FXUS63 KJKL 282053
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
353 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SRLY DIRECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF EXITING
HIGH PRESSURE THIS EVENING...CREATING A PSEUDO WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALONG A DEVELOPING LLVL JET. OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL
THEN DEVELOP BY THIS EVENING IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...INTO INDIANA AS WELL AS OHIO. THIS WILL BRING PRECIP
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A FEW CONCERNS WITH THIS SYSTEM...NAMELY A LIGHT
ICE AND SNOW POTENTIAL.

LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE CONTINUING TO SUPPORT A STEADY OR
GRADUAL WARMING OF TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS...
CLOUD COVER...AND PRECIP TAKE CONTROL. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
ANTECEDENT COLD CONDITIONS...IT IS LIKELY THAT EVEN AS SURFACE TEMPS
SLOWLY RISE...THE PAVEMENT AND GROUND TEMPS WILL TAKE AN HOUR TO 3
HOURS LONGER. TEMPERATURES IN THE LLVLS WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING
BETWEEN 0 AND 6Z...HOWEVER...SURFACE TEMPS WILL LIKELY LAG BEHIND BY
A FEW HOURS. THIS WILL CREATE THE SET UP FOR SOME SNOW/IP POTENTIAL
JUST AT ONSET /AND CONTINUING IN THE NORTH FOR A BIT LONGER/...THEN
A FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL GIVEN THE LATEST NAM12 AND GFS40 FORECAST
SOUNDINGS THROUGH AROUND 12Z...BEFORE SURFACE TEMPS FINALLY WARM
ENOUGH ACROSS THE REGION THAT ALL PRECIP FALLS AS RAIN AFTER 12Z TO
15Z. GIVEN THE WARMER SRLY FLOW TOMORROW...TEMPS WILL FINALLY
INCREASE TO CLOSER TO SEASONABLE NORMAL VALUES DURING THE
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

FROM HERE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE
CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH SOME CONTINUOUS/WIDESPREAD RAINFALL POSSIBLE. RAIN WILL
THEN CHANGE BACK OVER TO SNOW AS TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING AFTER
DARK...BEFORE FINALLY LOSING INTENSITY AND TAPERING OFF MONDAY
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

VERY ACTIVE AND MESSY WEATHER ON TAP IN THE EXTENDED. THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS WERE NOT IN THE BEST OF AGREEMENT REGARDING PRECIP
ONSET AND EVOLUTION DURING THE PERIOD...WITH THE ECMWF BEING
SLOWER AND NOT QUITE AS WET AS THE GFS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. THE
INITIAL PRECIP EVENT LOOKS TO BE IN FULL SWING SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY...AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF THE
PRECIP WITH THIS FIRST BOUNDARY SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
SOME SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND
THE DEPARTED FRONT ON MONDAY. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS SNOW
SHOULD BE MINIMAL AT BEST. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN
EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN...A SECOND MORE DYNAMIC WEATHER SYSTEM
IS PROGGED TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD...PUSHING ITS WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. MOIST AIR OVERRUNNING THE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR A MESSY
MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...AND PERHAPS SOME SNOW DURING THIS
PERIOD. LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY...WHERE A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH OF ICE MAY ACCUMULATE ON EXPOSED AND ELEVATED SURFACES. THE
AIR AT THE SURFACE SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH MY MIDMORNING ON TUESDAY
FOR THE PRECIP TO FALL AS ALL RAIN. ONCE THE WARM FRONT HAS PAST
US BY...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS THEN ON TAP TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA FOR
A COUPLE OF DAYS. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES...WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS RAIN IN AND OF ITSELF MAY LEAD TO
FLOODING ISSUES. COMBINE THIS RAIN WITH RUNOFF FROM MELTING
SNOW...AND THINGS MAY GET INTERESTING. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH
THIS EVENT WILL BE WARMING TEMPERATURES AND THE MELTING OF THE
SNOW PACK THAT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE IN THE HEADWATERS OF THE
KENTUCKY...CUMBERLAND...AND BIG SANDY RIVERS. WITH THE MODELS
STILL PRODUCING A GOOD DEAL OF PRECIP TO BEGIN THE WEEK...WE WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING NEXT WEEK.

THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY
ON THURSDAY BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OF TO OUR EAST. THE RAIN WILL
CHANGE TO SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING...AS COLD AIR BEGINS FILTERING
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTH...AND UPSLOPE FLOW BEGINS TO OCCUR...THE SNOW WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SNOW
MOVES OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THURSDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER
EAST...AND THE FRONTS PARENT TROUGH ALOFT TAKES ITS ENERGY EAST AS
WELL. LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE FINALLY COMING TO AND END JUST BEFORE 0Z FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL FLUCTUATE QUITE A BIT.
TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH
LOWS IN THE 30S AND HIGHS IN THE 40S. AFTER ANOTHER COLD NIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S IN OUR NORTH AND
THE LOWER 30S IN OUR SOUTH...THE MERCURY IS EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO
ALMOST AS WARM WITH MOST OF THE AREA LIKELY TO SEE HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S. AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SURGE OF VERY COLD AIR IS FORECAST TO
SETTLE OVER THE AREA. THURSDAY MORNINGS LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS NORTH OF I64 PERHAPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS. THIS
AIR MASS WILL MAKE ITS PRIMARY PUSH INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY TOPPING OUT MOSTLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S. FRIDAY MORNINGS LOWS WILL MARK THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH MINIMUM VALUES RANGING
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
BE SLIGHTLY WARMER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS WINDS GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST. WE WILL SEE ONLY A SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT IN TEMPERATURES TO END THE WEEK...WITH FORECAST HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 20.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

MID/HIGH SCT TO BKN CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO INTRUDE INTO THE
CWA FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING BOUNDARY. AS THE AREA
OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO NEAR FROM THE
WEST...EXPECT CIGS TO GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR BY LATE TONIGHT AS
LIGHT PRECIP SPREADS ACROSS THE CWA...THEN TO IFR AS PRECIP TAKES
HOLD OF THE REGION AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE FREEZING PRECIP
POTENTIAL...WITH A WARM LAYER ALOFT...AND SURFACE TEMPS NEAR
FREEZING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME THAT IT WAS
INCLUDED IN THE TAFS...BUT EXACT TIMING AND IMPACTS ARE STILL YET
TO BE PINNED DOWN. LIGHT AND MAINLY VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...INCREASING
SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JMW





000
FXUS63 KJKL 282053
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
353 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SRLY DIRECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF EXITING
HIGH PRESSURE THIS EVENING...CREATING A PSEUDO WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALONG A DEVELOPING LLVL JET. OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL
THEN DEVELOP BY THIS EVENING IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...INTO INDIANA AS WELL AS OHIO. THIS WILL BRING PRECIP
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A FEW CONCERNS WITH THIS SYSTEM...NAMELY A LIGHT
ICE AND SNOW POTENTIAL.

LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE CONTINUING TO SUPPORT A STEADY OR
GRADUAL WARMING OF TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS...
CLOUD COVER...AND PRECIP TAKE CONTROL. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
ANTECEDENT COLD CONDITIONS...IT IS LIKELY THAT EVEN AS SURFACE TEMPS
SLOWLY RISE...THE PAVEMENT AND GROUND TEMPS WILL TAKE AN HOUR TO 3
HOURS LONGER. TEMPERATURES IN THE LLVLS WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING
BETWEEN 0 AND 6Z...HOWEVER...SURFACE TEMPS WILL LIKELY LAG BEHIND BY
A FEW HOURS. THIS WILL CREATE THE SET UP FOR SOME SNOW/IP POTENTIAL
JUST AT ONSET /AND CONTINUING IN THE NORTH FOR A BIT LONGER/...THEN
A FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL GIVEN THE LATEST NAM12 AND GFS40 FORECAST
SOUNDINGS THROUGH AROUND 12Z...BEFORE SURFACE TEMPS FINALLY WARM
ENOUGH ACROSS THE REGION THAT ALL PRECIP FALLS AS RAIN AFTER 12Z TO
15Z. GIVEN THE WARMER SRLY FLOW TOMORROW...TEMPS WILL FINALLY
INCREASE TO CLOSER TO SEASONABLE NORMAL VALUES DURING THE
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

FROM HERE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE
CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH SOME CONTINUOUS/WIDESPREAD RAINFALL POSSIBLE. RAIN WILL
THEN CHANGE BACK OVER TO SNOW AS TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING AFTER
DARK...BEFORE FINALLY LOSING INTENSITY AND TAPERING OFF MONDAY
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

VERY ACTIVE AND MESSY WEATHER ON TAP IN THE EXTENDED. THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS WERE NOT IN THE BEST OF AGREEMENT REGARDING PRECIP
ONSET AND EVOLUTION DURING THE PERIOD...WITH THE ECMWF BEING
SLOWER AND NOT QUITE AS WET AS THE GFS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. THE
INITIAL PRECIP EVENT LOOKS TO BE IN FULL SWING SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY...AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF THE
PRECIP WITH THIS FIRST BOUNDARY SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
SOME SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND
THE DEPARTED FRONT ON MONDAY. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS SNOW
SHOULD BE MINIMAL AT BEST. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN
EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN...A SECOND MORE DYNAMIC WEATHER SYSTEM
IS PROGGED TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD...PUSHING ITS WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. MOIST AIR OVERRUNNING THE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR A MESSY
MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...AND PERHAPS SOME SNOW DURING THIS
PERIOD. LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY...WHERE A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH OF ICE MAY ACCUMULATE ON EXPOSED AND ELEVATED SURFACES. THE
AIR AT THE SURFACE SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH MY MIDMORNING ON TUESDAY
FOR THE PRECIP TO FALL AS ALL RAIN. ONCE THE WARM FRONT HAS PAST
US BY...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS THEN ON TAP TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA FOR
A COUPLE OF DAYS. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES...WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS RAIN IN AND OF ITSELF MAY LEAD TO
FLOODING ISSUES. COMBINE THIS RAIN WITH RUNOFF FROM MELTING
SNOW...AND THINGS MAY GET INTERESTING. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH
THIS EVENT WILL BE WARMING TEMPERATURES AND THE MELTING OF THE
SNOW PACK THAT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE IN THE HEADWATERS OF THE
KENTUCKY...CUMBERLAND...AND BIG SANDY RIVERS. WITH THE MODELS
STILL PRODUCING A GOOD DEAL OF PRECIP TO BEGIN THE WEEK...WE WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING NEXT WEEK.

THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY
ON THURSDAY BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OF TO OUR EAST. THE RAIN WILL
CHANGE TO SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING...AS COLD AIR BEGINS FILTERING
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTH...AND UPSLOPE FLOW BEGINS TO OCCUR...THE SNOW WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SNOW
MOVES OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THURSDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER
EAST...AND THE FRONTS PARENT TROUGH ALOFT TAKES ITS ENERGY EAST AS
WELL. LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE FINALLY COMING TO AND END JUST BEFORE 0Z FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL FLUCTUATE QUITE A BIT.
TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH
LOWS IN THE 30S AND HIGHS IN THE 40S. AFTER ANOTHER COLD NIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S IN OUR NORTH AND
THE LOWER 30S IN OUR SOUTH...THE MERCURY IS EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO
ALMOST AS WARM WITH MOST OF THE AREA LIKELY TO SEE HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S. AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SURGE OF VERY COLD AIR IS FORECAST TO
SETTLE OVER THE AREA. THURSDAY MORNINGS LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS NORTH OF I64 PERHAPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS. THIS
AIR MASS WILL MAKE ITS PRIMARY PUSH INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY TOPPING OUT MOSTLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S. FRIDAY MORNINGS LOWS WILL MARK THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH MINIMUM VALUES RANGING
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
BE SLIGHTLY WARMER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS WINDS GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST. WE WILL SEE ONLY A SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT IN TEMPERATURES TO END THE WEEK...WITH FORECAST HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 20.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

MID/HIGH SCT TO BKN CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO INTRUDE INTO THE
CWA FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING BOUNDARY. AS THE AREA
OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO NEAR FROM THE
WEST...EXPECT CIGS TO GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR BY LATE TONIGHT AS
LIGHT PRECIP SPREADS ACROSS THE CWA...THEN TO IFR AS PRECIP TAKES
HOLD OF THE REGION AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE FREEZING PRECIP
POTENTIAL...WITH A WARM LAYER ALOFT...AND SURFACE TEMPS NEAR
FREEZING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME THAT IT WAS
INCLUDED IN THE TAFS...BUT EXACT TIMING AND IMPACTS ARE STILL YET
TO BE PINNED DOWN. LIGHT AND MAINLY VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...INCREASING
SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JMW




000
FXUS63 KJKL 281754
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1254 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 750 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

MID LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER STREAMING IN OVERNIGHT HAS
KEPT UP LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. NO LOCATION DROPPED INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT. BESIDES TEMPS...THE FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK. SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER IS SHOWING UP ON THE REGIONAL
MOSAIC BUT A FEW FLURRIES MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE HEADING IN THROUGH
MIDDAY. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL
BE THE CONTINUED POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT AND THE 06Z
NAM SOUNDINGS SEEM TO CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS. THE WARM NOSE
CONTINUES TO BE SUCH THAT...ITS DIFFICULT TO SEE SNOW SOUTH OF THE
OHIO AT THIS POINT. STILL THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME
COUPLED WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BEING
ADVECTED IN TO OVERCOME THE DRY LAYER BEFORE SURFACE TEMPS WARM
ABOVE FREEZING TOWARDS DAWN CONTINUES TO BE PUZZLING. THEN THE
AMOUNT OF EVAPORATIVE COOLING COUPLED WITH ANY SNOW COVER...THE
FREEZING RAIN AND EVEN SLEET IN TRANSITION REMAIN A CREDIBLE
THREAT. WILL PASS ON THE SPS AND INFORM THE DAYSHIFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE NORTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER STREAMING IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER MOVING IN
OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE IN THE TEENS FOR LOWS
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS THAT ARE STILL SUPPORTING A
DECENT SNOWPACK. WITHIN THIS WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BE SOME
ISOLATED FLURRIES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA INTO THE AFTER DAWN
HOURS.

HEADING INTO THE DAY...850 SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP OVER THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY WITH A 30 KNOT LL JET. OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL THEN
DEVELOP BY SATURDAY EVENING INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KENTUCKY AND INTO INDIANA AS WELL AS OHIO. THIS WILL BRING PRECIP
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. WITH THIS
SET UP...THERE ARE A FEW CONCERNS. CURRENTLY THE AREA IS UNDER A
PRETTY DRY AIR MASS THERE WILL LIKELY BE INSTANCES ACROSS THE AREA
WHERE PRECIP WILL WET BULB COLD ENOUGH FOR FREEZING RAIN IN MOST
AREAS...ESPECIALLY WHERE THERE IS DECENT SNOWPACK. IF THE AMOUNT
OF QPF EXPECTED IS NOT ROBUST AT ONSET...THE COLUMN WONT SATURATE
IN TIME BEFORE SURFACE TEMPS WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN TO FALL. HI
RES MODEL BLENDS HINT AT THIS AS WELL WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO
THE UPPER 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS BY 06Z. CURRENT THINKING BASED
UPON WHAT THE NAM AND SREF ARE ADVERTISING...THE LL JET LOOKS TO
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND SATURATE THE
LOWER LEVELS. ENOUGH EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF FREEZING RAIN. SLEET MAY MIX IN AT
TIMES BUT THIS WILL BE A MAINLY TRANSIENT PRECIP TYPE FOR THIS
EVENT. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO BUT MAY BE
NEEDING AT LEAST A SPS AT THIS POINT FOR THE THREAT...ESPECIALLY
NOTICING MODELS ARE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE BRINGING PRECIP INTO
THE AREA.

LOWER LEVELS SHOULD WARM ENOUGH BY MID MORNING SUNDAY FOR PRECIP
TYPE TO BE ALL RAIN ACROSS THE AREA AS SOME WARM SURFACE
TEMPERATURES NOT SEEN IN QUITE AWHILE ADVECT INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS FOR SUNDAY WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
NEAR 50 WHICH IS ACTUALLY NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

VERY ACTIVE AND MESSY WEATHER ON TAP IN THE EXTENDED. THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS WERE NOT IN THE BEST OF AGREEMENT REGARDING PRECIP
ONSET AND EVOLUTION DURING THE PERIOD...WITH THE ECMWF BEING
SLOWER AND NOT QUITE AS WET AS THE GFS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. THE
INITIAL PRECIP EVENT LOOKS TO BE IN FULL SWING SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY...AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF THE
PRECIP WITH THIS FIRST BOUNDARY SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
SOME SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND
THE DEPARTED FRONT ON MONDAY. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS SNOW
SHOULD BE MINIMAL AT BEST. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN
EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN...A SECOND MORE DYNAMIC WEATHER SYSTEM
IS PROGGED TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD...PUSHING ITS WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. MOIST AIR OVERRUNNING THE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR A MESSY
MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...AND PERHAPS SOME SNOW DURING THIS
PERIOD. LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY...WHERE A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH OF ICE MAY ACCUMULATE ON EXPOSED AND ELEVATED SURFACES. THE
AIR AT THE SURFACE SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH MY MIDMORNING ON TUESDAY
FOR THE PRECIP TO FALL AS ALL RAIN. ONCE THE WARM FRONT HAS PAST
US BY...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS THEN ON TAP TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA FOR
A COUPLE OF DAYS. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES...WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS RAIN IN AND OF ITSELF MAY LEAD TO
FLOODING ISSUES. COMBINE THIS RAIN WITH RUNOFF FROM MELTING
SNOW...AND THINGS MAY GET INTERESTING. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH
THIS EVENT WILL BE WARMING TEMPERATURES AND THE MELTING OF THE
SNOW PACK THAT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE IN THE HEADWATERS OF THE
KENTUCKY...CUMBERLAND...AND BIG SANDY RIVERS. WITH THE MODELS
STILL PRODUCING A GOOD DEAL OF PRECIP TO BEGIN THE WEEK...WE WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING NEXT WEEK.

THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY
ON THURSDAY BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OF TO OUR EAST. THE RAIN WILL
CHANGE TO SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING...AS COLD AIR BEGINS FILTERING
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTH...AND UPSLOPE FLOW BEGINS TO OCCUR...THE SNOW WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SNOW
MOVES OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THURSDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER
EAST...AND THE FRONTS PARENT TROUGH ALOFT TAKES ITS ENERGY EAST AS
WELL. LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE FINALLY COMING TO AND END JUST BEFORE 0Z FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL FLUCTUATE QUITE A BIT.
TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH
LOWS IN THE 30S AND HIGHS IN THE 40S. AFTER ANOTHER COLD NIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S IN OUR NORTH AND
THE LOWER 30S IN OUR SOUTH...THE MERCURY IS EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO
ALMOST AS WARM WITH MOST OF THE AREA LIKELY TO SEE HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S. AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SURGE OF VERY COLD AIR IS FORECAST TO
SETTLE OVER THE AREA. THURSDAY MORNINGS LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS NORTH OF I64 PERHAPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS. THIS
AIR MASS WILL MAKE ITS PRIMARY PUSH INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY TOPPING OUT MOSTLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S. FRIDAY MORNINGS LOWS WILL MARK THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH MINIMUM VALUES RANGING
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
BE SLIGHTLY WARMER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS WINDS GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST. WE WILL SEE ONLY A SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT IN TEMPERATURES TO END THE WEEK...WITH FORECAST HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 20.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

MID/HIGH SCT TO BKN CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO INTRUDE INTO THE
CWA FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING BOUNDARY. AS THE AREA
OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO NEAR FROM THE
WEST...EXPECT CIGS TO GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR BY LATE TONIGHT AS
LIGHT PRECIP SPREADS ACROSS THE CWA...THEN TO IFR AS PRECIP TAKES
HOLD OF THE REGION AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE FREEZING PRECIP
POTENTIAL...WITH A WARM LAYER ALOFT...AND SURFACE TEMPS NEAR
FREEZING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME THAT IT WAS
INCLUDED IN THE TAFS...BUT EXACT TIMING AND IMPACTS ARE STILL YET
TO BE PINNED DOWN. LIGHT AND MAINLY VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...INCREASING
SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JMW





000
FXUS63 KJKL 281754
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1254 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 750 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

MID LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER STREAMING IN OVERNIGHT HAS
KEPT UP LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. NO LOCATION DROPPED INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT. BESIDES TEMPS...THE FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK. SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER IS SHOWING UP ON THE REGIONAL
MOSAIC BUT A FEW FLURRIES MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE HEADING IN THROUGH
MIDDAY. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL
BE THE CONTINUED POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT AND THE 06Z
NAM SOUNDINGS SEEM TO CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS. THE WARM NOSE
CONTINUES TO BE SUCH THAT...ITS DIFFICULT TO SEE SNOW SOUTH OF THE
OHIO AT THIS POINT. STILL THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME
COUPLED WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BEING
ADVECTED IN TO OVERCOME THE DRY LAYER BEFORE SURFACE TEMPS WARM
ABOVE FREEZING TOWARDS DAWN CONTINUES TO BE PUZZLING. THEN THE
AMOUNT OF EVAPORATIVE COOLING COUPLED WITH ANY SNOW COVER...THE
FREEZING RAIN AND EVEN SLEET IN TRANSITION REMAIN A CREDIBLE
THREAT. WILL PASS ON THE SPS AND INFORM THE DAYSHIFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE NORTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER STREAMING IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER MOVING IN
OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE IN THE TEENS FOR LOWS
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS THAT ARE STILL SUPPORTING A
DECENT SNOWPACK. WITHIN THIS WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BE SOME
ISOLATED FLURRIES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA INTO THE AFTER DAWN
HOURS.

HEADING INTO THE DAY...850 SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP OVER THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY WITH A 30 KNOT LL JET. OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL THEN
DEVELOP BY SATURDAY EVENING INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KENTUCKY AND INTO INDIANA AS WELL AS OHIO. THIS WILL BRING PRECIP
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. WITH THIS
SET UP...THERE ARE A FEW CONCERNS. CURRENTLY THE AREA IS UNDER A
PRETTY DRY AIR MASS THERE WILL LIKELY BE INSTANCES ACROSS THE AREA
WHERE PRECIP WILL WET BULB COLD ENOUGH FOR FREEZING RAIN IN MOST
AREAS...ESPECIALLY WHERE THERE IS DECENT SNOWPACK. IF THE AMOUNT
OF QPF EXPECTED IS NOT ROBUST AT ONSET...THE COLUMN WONT SATURATE
IN TIME BEFORE SURFACE TEMPS WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN TO FALL. HI
RES MODEL BLENDS HINT AT THIS AS WELL WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO
THE UPPER 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS BY 06Z. CURRENT THINKING BASED
UPON WHAT THE NAM AND SREF ARE ADVERTISING...THE LL JET LOOKS TO
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND SATURATE THE
LOWER LEVELS. ENOUGH EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF FREEZING RAIN. SLEET MAY MIX IN AT
TIMES BUT THIS WILL BE A MAINLY TRANSIENT PRECIP TYPE FOR THIS
EVENT. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO BUT MAY BE
NEEDING AT LEAST A SPS AT THIS POINT FOR THE THREAT...ESPECIALLY
NOTICING MODELS ARE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE BRINGING PRECIP INTO
THE AREA.

LOWER LEVELS SHOULD WARM ENOUGH BY MID MORNING SUNDAY FOR PRECIP
TYPE TO BE ALL RAIN ACROSS THE AREA AS SOME WARM SURFACE
TEMPERATURES NOT SEEN IN QUITE AWHILE ADVECT INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS FOR SUNDAY WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
NEAR 50 WHICH IS ACTUALLY NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

VERY ACTIVE AND MESSY WEATHER ON TAP IN THE EXTENDED. THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS WERE NOT IN THE BEST OF AGREEMENT REGARDING PRECIP
ONSET AND EVOLUTION DURING THE PERIOD...WITH THE ECMWF BEING
SLOWER AND NOT QUITE AS WET AS THE GFS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. THE
INITIAL PRECIP EVENT LOOKS TO BE IN FULL SWING SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY...AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF THE
PRECIP WITH THIS FIRST BOUNDARY SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
SOME SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND
THE DEPARTED FRONT ON MONDAY. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS SNOW
SHOULD BE MINIMAL AT BEST. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN
EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN...A SECOND MORE DYNAMIC WEATHER SYSTEM
IS PROGGED TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD...PUSHING ITS WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. MOIST AIR OVERRUNNING THE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR A MESSY
MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...AND PERHAPS SOME SNOW DURING THIS
PERIOD. LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY...WHERE A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH OF ICE MAY ACCUMULATE ON EXPOSED AND ELEVATED SURFACES. THE
AIR AT THE SURFACE SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH MY MIDMORNING ON TUESDAY
FOR THE PRECIP TO FALL AS ALL RAIN. ONCE THE WARM FRONT HAS PAST
US BY...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS THEN ON TAP TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA FOR
A COUPLE OF DAYS. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES...WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS RAIN IN AND OF ITSELF MAY LEAD TO
FLOODING ISSUES. COMBINE THIS RAIN WITH RUNOFF FROM MELTING
SNOW...AND THINGS MAY GET INTERESTING. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH
THIS EVENT WILL BE WARMING TEMPERATURES AND THE MELTING OF THE
SNOW PACK THAT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE IN THE HEADWATERS OF THE
KENTUCKY...CUMBERLAND...AND BIG SANDY RIVERS. WITH THE MODELS
STILL PRODUCING A GOOD DEAL OF PRECIP TO BEGIN THE WEEK...WE WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING NEXT WEEK.

THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY
ON THURSDAY BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OF TO OUR EAST. THE RAIN WILL
CHANGE TO SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING...AS COLD AIR BEGINS FILTERING
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTH...AND UPSLOPE FLOW BEGINS TO OCCUR...THE SNOW WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SNOW
MOVES OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THURSDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER
EAST...AND THE FRONTS PARENT TROUGH ALOFT TAKES ITS ENERGY EAST AS
WELL. LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE FINALLY COMING TO AND END JUST BEFORE 0Z FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL FLUCTUATE QUITE A BIT.
TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH
LOWS IN THE 30S AND HIGHS IN THE 40S. AFTER ANOTHER COLD NIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S IN OUR NORTH AND
THE LOWER 30S IN OUR SOUTH...THE MERCURY IS EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO
ALMOST AS WARM WITH MOST OF THE AREA LIKELY TO SEE HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S. AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SURGE OF VERY COLD AIR IS FORECAST TO
SETTLE OVER THE AREA. THURSDAY MORNINGS LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS NORTH OF I64 PERHAPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS. THIS
AIR MASS WILL MAKE ITS PRIMARY PUSH INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY TOPPING OUT MOSTLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S. FRIDAY MORNINGS LOWS WILL MARK THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH MINIMUM VALUES RANGING
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
BE SLIGHTLY WARMER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS WINDS GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST. WE WILL SEE ONLY A SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT IN TEMPERATURES TO END THE WEEK...WITH FORECAST HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 20.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

MID/HIGH SCT TO BKN CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO INTRUDE INTO THE
CWA FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING BOUNDARY. AS THE AREA
OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO NEAR FROM THE
WEST...EXPECT CIGS TO GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR BY LATE TONIGHT AS
LIGHT PRECIP SPREADS ACROSS THE CWA...THEN TO IFR AS PRECIP TAKES
HOLD OF THE REGION AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE FREEZING PRECIP
POTENTIAL...WITH A WARM LAYER ALOFT...AND SURFACE TEMPS NEAR
FREEZING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME THAT IT WAS
INCLUDED IN THE TAFS...BUT EXACT TIMING AND IMPACTS ARE STILL YET
TO BE PINNED DOWN. LIGHT AND MAINLY VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...INCREASING
SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JMW





000
FXUS63 KJKL 281754
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1254 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 750 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

MID LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER STREAMING IN OVERNIGHT HAS
KEPT UP LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. NO LOCATION DROPPED INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT. BESIDES TEMPS...THE FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK. SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER IS SHOWING UP ON THE REGIONAL
MOSAIC BUT A FEW FLURRIES MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE HEADING IN THROUGH
MIDDAY. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL
BE THE CONTINUED POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT AND THE 06Z
NAM SOUNDINGS SEEM TO CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS. THE WARM NOSE
CONTINUES TO BE SUCH THAT...ITS DIFFICULT TO SEE SNOW SOUTH OF THE
OHIO AT THIS POINT. STILL THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME
COUPLED WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BEING
ADVECTED IN TO OVERCOME THE DRY LAYER BEFORE SURFACE TEMPS WARM
ABOVE FREEZING TOWARDS DAWN CONTINUES TO BE PUZZLING. THEN THE
AMOUNT OF EVAPORATIVE COOLING COUPLED WITH ANY SNOW COVER...THE
FREEZING RAIN AND EVEN SLEET IN TRANSITION REMAIN A CREDIBLE
THREAT. WILL PASS ON THE SPS AND INFORM THE DAYSHIFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE NORTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER STREAMING IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER MOVING IN
OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE IN THE TEENS FOR LOWS
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS THAT ARE STILL SUPPORTING A
DECENT SNOWPACK. WITHIN THIS WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BE SOME
ISOLATED FLURRIES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA INTO THE AFTER DAWN
HOURS.

HEADING INTO THE DAY...850 SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP OVER THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY WITH A 30 KNOT LL JET. OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL THEN
DEVELOP BY SATURDAY EVENING INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KENTUCKY AND INTO INDIANA AS WELL AS OHIO. THIS WILL BRING PRECIP
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. WITH THIS
SET UP...THERE ARE A FEW CONCERNS. CURRENTLY THE AREA IS UNDER A
PRETTY DRY AIR MASS THERE WILL LIKELY BE INSTANCES ACROSS THE AREA
WHERE PRECIP WILL WET BULB COLD ENOUGH FOR FREEZING RAIN IN MOST
AREAS...ESPECIALLY WHERE THERE IS DECENT SNOWPACK. IF THE AMOUNT
OF QPF EXPECTED IS NOT ROBUST AT ONSET...THE COLUMN WONT SATURATE
IN TIME BEFORE SURFACE TEMPS WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN TO FALL. HI
RES MODEL BLENDS HINT AT THIS AS WELL WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO
THE UPPER 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS BY 06Z. CURRENT THINKING BASED
UPON WHAT THE NAM AND SREF ARE ADVERTISING...THE LL JET LOOKS TO
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND SATURATE THE
LOWER LEVELS. ENOUGH EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF FREEZING RAIN. SLEET MAY MIX IN AT
TIMES BUT THIS WILL BE A MAINLY TRANSIENT PRECIP TYPE FOR THIS
EVENT. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO BUT MAY BE
NEEDING AT LEAST A SPS AT THIS POINT FOR THE THREAT...ESPECIALLY
NOTICING MODELS ARE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE BRINGING PRECIP INTO
THE AREA.

LOWER LEVELS SHOULD WARM ENOUGH BY MID MORNING SUNDAY FOR PRECIP
TYPE TO BE ALL RAIN ACROSS THE AREA AS SOME WARM SURFACE
TEMPERATURES NOT SEEN IN QUITE AWHILE ADVECT INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS FOR SUNDAY WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
NEAR 50 WHICH IS ACTUALLY NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

VERY ACTIVE AND MESSY WEATHER ON TAP IN THE EXTENDED. THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS WERE NOT IN THE BEST OF AGREEMENT REGARDING PRECIP
ONSET AND EVOLUTION DURING THE PERIOD...WITH THE ECMWF BEING
SLOWER AND NOT QUITE AS WET AS THE GFS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. THE
INITIAL PRECIP EVENT LOOKS TO BE IN FULL SWING SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY...AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF THE
PRECIP WITH THIS FIRST BOUNDARY SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
SOME SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND
THE DEPARTED FRONT ON MONDAY. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS SNOW
SHOULD BE MINIMAL AT BEST. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN
EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN...A SECOND MORE DYNAMIC WEATHER SYSTEM
IS PROGGED TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD...PUSHING ITS WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. MOIST AIR OVERRUNNING THE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR A MESSY
MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...AND PERHAPS SOME SNOW DURING THIS
PERIOD. LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY...WHERE A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH OF ICE MAY ACCUMULATE ON EXPOSED AND ELEVATED SURFACES. THE
AIR AT THE SURFACE SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH MY MIDMORNING ON TUESDAY
FOR THE PRECIP TO FALL AS ALL RAIN. ONCE THE WARM FRONT HAS PAST
US BY...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS THEN ON TAP TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA FOR
A COUPLE OF DAYS. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES...WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS RAIN IN AND OF ITSELF MAY LEAD TO
FLOODING ISSUES. COMBINE THIS RAIN WITH RUNOFF FROM MELTING
SNOW...AND THINGS MAY GET INTERESTING. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH
THIS EVENT WILL BE WARMING TEMPERATURES AND THE MELTING OF THE
SNOW PACK THAT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE IN THE HEADWATERS OF THE
KENTUCKY...CUMBERLAND...AND BIG SANDY RIVERS. WITH THE MODELS
STILL PRODUCING A GOOD DEAL OF PRECIP TO BEGIN THE WEEK...WE WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING NEXT WEEK.

THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY
ON THURSDAY BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OF TO OUR EAST. THE RAIN WILL
CHANGE TO SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING...AS COLD AIR BEGINS FILTERING
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTH...AND UPSLOPE FLOW BEGINS TO OCCUR...THE SNOW WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SNOW
MOVES OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THURSDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER
EAST...AND THE FRONTS PARENT TROUGH ALOFT TAKES ITS ENERGY EAST AS
WELL. LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE FINALLY COMING TO AND END JUST BEFORE 0Z FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL FLUCTUATE QUITE A BIT.
TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH
LOWS IN THE 30S AND HIGHS IN THE 40S. AFTER ANOTHER COLD NIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S IN OUR NORTH AND
THE LOWER 30S IN OUR SOUTH...THE MERCURY IS EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO
ALMOST AS WARM WITH MOST OF THE AREA LIKELY TO SEE HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S. AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SURGE OF VERY COLD AIR IS FORECAST TO
SETTLE OVER THE AREA. THURSDAY MORNINGS LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS NORTH OF I64 PERHAPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS. THIS
AIR MASS WILL MAKE ITS PRIMARY PUSH INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY TOPPING OUT MOSTLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S. FRIDAY MORNINGS LOWS WILL MARK THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH MINIMUM VALUES RANGING
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
BE SLIGHTLY WARMER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS WINDS GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST. WE WILL SEE ONLY A SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT IN TEMPERATURES TO END THE WEEK...WITH FORECAST HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 20.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

MID/HIGH SCT TO BKN CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO INTRUDE INTO THE
CWA FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING BOUNDARY. AS THE AREA
OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO NEAR FROM THE
WEST...EXPECT CIGS TO GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR BY LATE TONIGHT AS
LIGHT PRECIP SPREADS ACROSS THE CWA...THEN TO IFR AS PRECIP TAKES
HOLD OF THE REGION AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE FREEZING PRECIP
POTENTIAL...WITH A WARM LAYER ALOFT...AND SURFACE TEMPS NEAR
FREEZING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME THAT IT WAS
INCLUDED IN THE TAFS...BUT EXACT TIMING AND IMPACTS ARE STILL YET
TO BE PINNED DOWN. LIGHT AND MAINLY VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...INCREASING
SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JMW




000
FXUS63 KJKL 281754
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1254 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 750 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

MID LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER STREAMING IN OVERNIGHT HAS
KEPT UP LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. NO LOCATION DROPPED INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT. BESIDES TEMPS...THE FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK. SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER IS SHOWING UP ON THE REGIONAL
MOSAIC BUT A FEW FLURRIES MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE HEADING IN THROUGH
MIDDAY. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL
BE THE CONTINUED POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT AND THE 06Z
NAM SOUNDINGS SEEM TO CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS. THE WARM NOSE
CONTINUES TO BE SUCH THAT...ITS DIFFICULT TO SEE SNOW SOUTH OF THE
OHIO AT THIS POINT. STILL THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME
COUPLED WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BEING
ADVECTED IN TO OVERCOME THE DRY LAYER BEFORE SURFACE TEMPS WARM
ABOVE FREEZING TOWARDS DAWN CONTINUES TO BE PUZZLING. THEN THE
AMOUNT OF EVAPORATIVE COOLING COUPLED WITH ANY SNOW COVER...THE
FREEZING RAIN AND EVEN SLEET IN TRANSITION REMAIN A CREDIBLE
THREAT. WILL PASS ON THE SPS AND INFORM THE DAYSHIFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE NORTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER STREAMING IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER MOVING IN
OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE IN THE TEENS FOR LOWS
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS THAT ARE STILL SUPPORTING A
DECENT SNOWPACK. WITHIN THIS WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BE SOME
ISOLATED FLURRIES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA INTO THE AFTER DAWN
HOURS.

HEADING INTO THE DAY...850 SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP OVER THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY WITH A 30 KNOT LL JET. OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL THEN
DEVELOP BY SATURDAY EVENING INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KENTUCKY AND INTO INDIANA AS WELL AS OHIO. THIS WILL BRING PRECIP
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. WITH THIS
SET UP...THERE ARE A FEW CONCERNS. CURRENTLY THE AREA IS UNDER A
PRETTY DRY AIR MASS THERE WILL LIKELY BE INSTANCES ACROSS THE AREA
WHERE PRECIP WILL WET BULB COLD ENOUGH FOR FREEZING RAIN IN MOST
AREAS...ESPECIALLY WHERE THERE IS DECENT SNOWPACK. IF THE AMOUNT
OF QPF EXPECTED IS NOT ROBUST AT ONSET...THE COLUMN WONT SATURATE
IN TIME BEFORE SURFACE TEMPS WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN TO FALL. HI
RES MODEL BLENDS HINT AT THIS AS WELL WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO
THE UPPER 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS BY 06Z. CURRENT THINKING BASED
UPON WHAT THE NAM AND SREF ARE ADVERTISING...THE LL JET LOOKS TO
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND SATURATE THE
LOWER LEVELS. ENOUGH EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF FREEZING RAIN. SLEET MAY MIX IN AT
TIMES BUT THIS WILL BE A MAINLY TRANSIENT PRECIP TYPE FOR THIS
EVENT. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO BUT MAY BE
NEEDING AT LEAST A SPS AT THIS POINT FOR THE THREAT...ESPECIALLY
NOTICING MODELS ARE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE BRINGING PRECIP INTO
THE AREA.

LOWER LEVELS SHOULD WARM ENOUGH BY MID MORNING SUNDAY FOR PRECIP
TYPE TO BE ALL RAIN ACROSS THE AREA AS SOME WARM SURFACE
TEMPERATURES NOT SEEN IN QUITE AWHILE ADVECT INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS FOR SUNDAY WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
NEAR 50 WHICH IS ACTUALLY NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

VERY ACTIVE AND MESSY WEATHER ON TAP IN THE EXTENDED. THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS WERE NOT IN THE BEST OF AGREEMENT REGARDING PRECIP
ONSET AND EVOLUTION DURING THE PERIOD...WITH THE ECMWF BEING
SLOWER AND NOT QUITE AS WET AS THE GFS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. THE
INITIAL PRECIP EVENT LOOKS TO BE IN FULL SWING SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY...AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF THE
PRECIP WITH THIS FIRST BOUNDARY SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
SOME SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND
THE DEPARTED FRONT ON MONDAY. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS SNOW
SHOULD BE MINIMAL AT BEST. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN
EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN...A SECOND MORE DYNAMIC WEATHER SYSTEM
IS PROGGED TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD...PUSHING ITS WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. MOIST AIR OVERRUNNING THE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR A MESSY
MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...AND PERHAPS SOME SNOW DURING THIS
PERIOD. LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY...WHERE A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH OF ICE MAY ACCUMULATE ON EXPOSED AND ELEVATED SURFACES. THE
AIR AT THE SURFACE SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH MY MIDMORNING ON TUESDAY
FOR THE PRECIP TO FALL AS ALL RAIN. ONCE THE WARM FRONT HAS PAST
US BY...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS THEN ON TAP TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA FOR
A COUPLE OF DAYS. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES...WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS RAIN IN AND OF ITSELF MAY LEAD TO
FLOODING ISSUES. COMBINE THIS RAIN WITH RUNOFF FROM MELTING
SNOW...AND THINGS MAY GET INTERESTING. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH
THIS EVENT WILL BE WARMING TEMPERATURES AND THE MELTING OF THE
SNOW PACK THAT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE IN THE HEADWATERS OF THE
KENTUCKY...CUMBERLAND...AND BIG SANDY RIVERS. WITH THE MODELS
STILL PRODUCING A GOOD DEAL OF PRECIP TO BEGIN THE WEEK...WE WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING NEXT WEEK.

THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY
ON THURSDAY BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OF TO OUR EAST. THE RAIN WILL
CHANGE TO SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING...AS COLD AIR BEGINS FILTERING
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTH...AND UPSLOPE FLOW BEGINS TO OCCUR...THE SNOW WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SNOW
MOVES OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THURSDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER
EAST...AND THE FRONTS PARENT TROUGH ALOFT TAKES ITS ENERGY EAST AS
WELL. LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE FINALLY COMING TO AND END JUST BEFORE 0Z FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL FLUCTUATE QUITE A BIT.
TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH
LOWS IN THE 30S AND HIGHS IN THE 40S. AFTER ANOTHER COLD NIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S IN OUR NORTH AND
THE LOWER 30S IN OUR SOUTH...THE MERCURY IS EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO
ALMOST AS WARM WITH MOST OF THE AREA LIKELY TO SEE HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S. AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SURGE OF VERY COLD AIR IS FORECAST TO
SETTLE OVER THE AREA. THURSDAY MORNINGS LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS NORTH OF I64 PERHAPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS. THIS
AIR MASS WILL MAKE ITS PRIMARY PUSH INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY TOPPING OUT MOSTLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S. FRIDAY MORNINGS LOWS WILL MARK THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH MINIMUM VALUES RANGING
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
BE SLIGHTLY WARMER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS WINDS GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST. WE WILL SEE ONLY A SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT IN TEMPERATURES TO END THE WEEK...WITH FORECAST HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 20.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

MID/HIGH SCT TO BKN CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO INTRUDE INTO THE
CWA FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING BOUNDARY. AS THE AREA
OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO NEAR FROM THE
WEST...EXPECT CIGS TO GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR BY LATE TONIGHT AS
LIGHT PRECIP SPREADS ACROSS THE CWA...THEN TO IFR AS PRECIP TAKES
HOLD OF THE REGION AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE FREEZING PRECIP
POTENTIAL...WITH A WARM LAYER ALOFT...AND SURFACE TEMPS NEAR
FREEZING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME THAT IT WAS
INCLUDED IN THE TAFS...BUT EXACT TIMING AND IMPACTS ARE STILL YET
TO BE PINNED DOWN. LIGHT AND MAINLY VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...INCREASING
SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JMW




000
FXUS63 KJKL 281250
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
750 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 750 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

MID LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER STREAMING IN OVERNIGHT HAS
KEPT UP LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. NO LOCATION DROPPED INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT. BESIDES TEMPS...THE FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK. SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER IS SHOWING UP ON THE REGIONAL
MOSAIC BUT A FEW FLURRIES MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE HEADING IN THROUGH
MIDDAY. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL
BE THE CONTINUED POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT AND THE 06Z
NAM SOUNDINGS SEEM TO CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS. THE WARM NOSE
CONTINUES TO BE SUCH THAT...ITS DIFFICULT TO SEE SNOW SOUTH OF THE
OHIO AT THIS POINT. STILL THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME
COUPLED WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BEING
ADVECTED IN TO OVERCOME THE DRY LAYER BEFORE SURFACE TEMPS WARM
ABOVE FREEZING TOWARDS DAWN CONTINUES TO BE PUZZLING. THEN THE
AMOUNT OF EVAPORATIVE COOLING COUPLED WITH ANY SNOW COVER...THE
FREEZING RAIN AND EVEN SLEET IN TRANSITION REMAIN A CREDIBLE
THREAT. WILL PASS ON THE SPS AND INFORM THE DAYSHIFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE NORTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER STREAMING IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER MOVING IN
OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE IN THE TEENS FOR LOWS
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS THAT ARE STILL SUPPORTING A
DECENT SNOWPACK. WITHIN THIS WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BE SOME
ISOLATED FLURRIES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA INTO THE AFTER DAWN
HOURS.

HEADING INTO THE DAY...850 SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP OVER THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY WITH A 30 KNOT LL JET. OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL THEN
DEVELOP BY SATURDAY EVENING INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KENTUCKY AND INTO INDIANA AS WELL AS OHIO. THIS WILL BRING PRECIP
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. WITH THIS
SET UP...THERE ARE A FEW CONCERNS. CURRENTLY THE AREA IS UNDER A
PRETTY DRY AIR MASS THERE WILL LIKELY BE INSTANCES ACROSS THE AREA
WHERE PRECIP WILL WET BULB COLD ENOUGH FOR FREEZING RAIN IN MOST
AREAS...ESPECIALLY WHERE THERE IS DECENT SNOWPACK. IF THE AMOUNT
OF QPF EXPECTED IS NOT ROBUST AT ONSET...THE COLUMN WONT SATURATE
IN TIME BEFORE SURFACE TEMPS WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN TO FALL. HI
RES MODEL BLENDS HINT AT THIS AS WELL WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO
THE UPPER 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS BY 06Z. CURRENT THINKING BASED
UPON WHAT THE NAM AND SREF ARE ADVERTISING...THE LL JET LOOKS TO
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND SATURATE THE
LOWER LEVELS. ENOUGH EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF FREEZING RAIN. SLEET MAY MIX IN AT
TIMES BUT THIS WILL BE A MAINLY TRANSIENT PRECIP TYPE FOR THIS
EVENT. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO BUT MAY BE
NEEDING AT LEAST A SPS AT THIS POINT FOR THE THREAT...ESPECIALLY
NOTICING MODELS ARE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE BRINGING PRECIP INTO
THE AREA.

LOWER LEVELS SHOULD WARM ENOUGH BY MID MORNING SUNDAY FOR PRECIP
TYPE TO BE ALL RAIN ACROSS THE AREA AS SOME WARM SURFACE
TEMPERATURES NOT SEEN IN QUITE AWHILE ADVECT INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS FOR SUNDAY WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
NEAR 50 WHICH IS ACTUALLY NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

VERY ACTIVE AND MESSY WEATHER ON TAP IN THE EXTENDED. THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS WERE NOT IN THE BEST OF AGREEMENT REGARDING PRECIP
ONSET AND EVOLUTION DURING THE PERIOD...WITH THE ECMWF BEING
SLOWER AND NOT QUITE AS WET AS THE GFS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. THE
INITIAL PRECIP EVENT LOOKS TO BE IN FULL SWING SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY...AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF THE
PRECIP WITH THIS FIRST BOUNDARY SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
SOME SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND
THE DEPARTED FRONT ON MONDAY. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS SNOW
SHOULD BE MINIMAL AT BEST. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN
EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN...A SECOND MORE DYNAMIC WEATHER SYSTEM
IS PROGGED TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD...PUSHING ITS WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. MOIST AIR OVERRUNNING THE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR A MESSY
MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...AND PERHAPS SOME SNOW DURING THIS
PERIOD. LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY...WHERE A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH OF ICE MAY ACCUMULATE ON EXPOSED AND ELEVATED SURFACES. THE
AIR AT THE SURFACE SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH MY MIDMORNING ON TUESDAY
FOR THE PRECIP TO FALL AS ALL RAIN. ONCE THE WARM FRONT HAS PAST
US BY...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS THEN ON TAP TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA FOR
A COUPLE OF DAYS. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES...WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS RAIN IN AND OF ITSELF MAY LEAD TO
FLOODING ISSUES. COMBINE THIS RAIN WITH RUNOFF FROM MELTING
SNOW...AND THINGS MAY GET INTERESTING. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH
THIS EVENT WILL BE WARMING TEMPERATURES AND THE MELTING OF THE
SNOW PACK THAT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE IN THE HEADWATERS OF THE
KENTUCKY...CUMBERLAND...AND BIG SANDY RIVERS. WITH THE MODELS
STILL PRODUCING A GOOD DEAL OF PRECIP TO BEGIN THE WEEK...WE WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING NEXT WEEK.

THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY
ON THURSDAY BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OF TO OUR EAST. THE RAIN WILL
CHANGE TO SNOW THURSDAY EVENING...AS COLD AIR BEGINS FILTERING
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTH...AND UPSLOPE FLOW BEGINS TO OCCUR...THE SNOW WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SNOW
MOVES OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THURSDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER
EAST...AND THE FRONTS PARENT TROUGH ALOFT TAKES ITS ENERGY EAST AS
WELL. LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE FINALLY COMING TO AND END JUST BEFORE 0Z FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL FLUCTUATE QUITE A BIT.
TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH
LOWS IN THE 30S AND HIGHS IN THE 40S. AFTER ANOTHER COLD NIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S IN OUR NORTH AND
THE LOWER 30S IN OUR SOUTH...THE MERCURY IS EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO
ALMOST AS WARM WITH MOST OF THE AREA LIKELY TO SEE HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S. AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SURGE OF VERY COLD AIR IS FORECAST TO
SETTLE OVER THE AREA. THURSDAY MORNINGS LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS NORTH OF I64 PERHAPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS. THIS
AIR MASS WILL MAKE ITS PRIMARY PUSH INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY TOPPING OUT MOSTLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S. FRIDAY MORNINGS LOWS WILL MARK THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH MINIMUM VALUES RANGING
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
BE SLIGHTLY WARMER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS WINDS GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST. WE WILL SEE ONLY A SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT IN TEMPERATURES TO END THE WEEK...WITH FORECAST HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 20.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TODAY. LIGHT AND MAINLY VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED. SOME
MVFR CIGS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE AREA BY 00Z TONIGHT AS RAIN WILL
DEVELOP INTO THE AREA BY 06Z WITH SYM AND POINTS NORTH SEEING
SOME FREEZING RAIN. EXPECT MOST SITES TO SEE FIELD MINS AFTER
06Z.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER





000
FXUS63 KJKL 281250
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
750 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 750 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

MID LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER STREAMING IN OVERNIGHT HAS
KEPT UP LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. NO LOCATION DROPPED INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT. BESIDES TEMPS...THE FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK. SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER IS SHOWING UP ON THE REGIONAL
MOSAIC BUT A FEW FLURRIES MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE HEADING IN THROUGH
MIDDAY. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL
BE THE CONTINUED POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT AND THE 06Z
NAM SOUNDINGS SEEM TO CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS. THE WARM NOSE
CONTINUES TO BE SUCH THAT...ITS DIFFICULT TO SEE SNOW SOUTH OF THE
OHIO AT THIS POINT. STILL THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME
COUPLED WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BEING
ADVECTED IN TO OVERCOME THE DRY LAYER BEFORE SURFACE TEMPS WARM
ABOVE FREEZING TOWARDS DAWN CONTINUES TO BE PUZZLING. THEN THE
AMOUNT OF EVAPORATIVE COOLING COUPLED WITH ANY SNOW COVER...THE
FREEZING RAIN AND EVEN SLEET IN TRANSITION REMAIN A CREDIBLE
THREAT. WILL PASS ON THE SPS AND INFORM THE DAYSHIFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE NORTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER STREAMING IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER MOVING IN
OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE IN THE TEENS FOR LOWS
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS THAT ARE STILL SUPPORTING A
DECENT SNOWPACK. WITHIN THIS WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BE SOME
ISOLATED FLURRIES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA INTO THE AFTER DAWN
HOURS.

HEADING INTO THE DAY...850 SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP OVER THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY WITH A 30 KNOT LL JET. OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL THEN
DEVELOP BY SATURDAY EVENING INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KENTUCKY AND INTO INDIANA AS WELL AS OHIO. THIS WILL BRING PRECIP
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. WITH THIS
SET UP...THERE ARE A FEW CONCERNS. CURRENTLY THE AREA IS UNDER A
PRETTY DRY AIR MASS THERE WILL LIKELY BE INSTANCES ACROSS THE AREA
WHERE PRECIP WILL WET BULB COLD ENOUGH FOR FREEZING RAIN IN MOST
AREAS...ESPECIALLY WHERE THERE IS DECENT SNOWPACK. IF THE AMOUNT
OF QPF EXPECTED IS NOT ROBUST AT ONSET...THE COLUMN WONT SATURATE
IN TIME BEFORE SURFACE TEMPS WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN TO FALL. HI
RES MODEL BLENDS HINT AT THIS AS WELL WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO
THE UPPER 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS BY 06Z. CURRENT THINKING BASED
UPON WHAT THE NAM AND SREF ARE ADVERTISING...THE LL JET LOOKS TO
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND SATURATE THE
LOWER LEVELS. ENOUGH EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF FREEZING RAIN. SLEET MAY MIX IN AT
TIMES BUT THIS WILL BE A MAINLY TRANSIENT PRECIP TYPE FOR THIS
EVENT. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO BUT MAY BE
NEEDING AT LEAST A SPS AT THIS POINT FOR THE THREAT...ESPECIALLY
NOTICING MODELS ARE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE BRINGING PRECIP INTO
THE AREA.

LOWER LEVELS SHOULD WARM ENOUGH BY MID MORNING SUNDAY FOR PRECIP
TYPE TO BE ALL RAIN ACROSS THE AREA AS SOME WARM SURFACE
TEMPERATURES NOT SEEN IN QUITE AWHILE ADVECT INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS FOR SUNDAY WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
NEAR 50 WHICH IS ACTUALLY NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

VERY ACTIVE AND MESSY WEATHER ON TAP IN THE EXTENDED. THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS WERE NOT IN THE BEST OF AGREEMENT REGARDING PRECIP
ONSET AND EVOLUTION DURING THE PERIOD...WITH THE ECMWF BEING
SLOWER AND NOT QUITE AS WET AS THE GFS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. THE
INITIAL PRECIP EVENT LOOKS TO BE IN FULL SWING SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY...AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF THE
PRECIP WITH THIS FIRST BOUNDARY SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
SOME SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND
THE DEPARTED FRONT ON MONDAY. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS SNOW
SHOULD BE MINIMAL AT BEST. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN
EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN...A SECOND MORE DYNAMIC WEATHER SYSTEM
IS PROGGED TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD...PUSHING ITS WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. MOIST AIR OVERRUNNING THE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR A MESSY
MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...AND PERHAPS SOME SNOW DURING THIS
PERIOD. LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY...WHERE A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH OF ICE MAY ACCUMULATE ON EXPOSED AND ELEVATED SURFACES. THE
AIR AT THE SURFACE SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH MY MIDMORNING ON TUESDAY
FOR THE PRECIP TO FALL AS ALL RAIN. ONCE THE WARM FRONT HAS PAST
US BY...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS THEN ON TAP TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA FOR
A COUPLE OF DAYS. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES...WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS RAIN IN AND OF ITSELF MAY LEAD TO
FLOODING ISSUES. COMBINE THIS RAIN WITH RUNOFF FROM MELTING
SNOW...AND THINGS MAY GET INTERESTING. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH
THIS EVENT WILL BE WARMING TEMPERATURES AND THE MELTING OF THE
SNOW PACK THAT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE IN THE HEADWATERS OF THE
KENTUCKY...CUMBERLAND...AND BIG SANDY RIVERS. WITH THE MODELS
STILL PRODUCING A GOOD DEAL OF PRECIP TO BEGIN THE WEEK...WE WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING NEXT WEEK.

THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY
ON THURSDAY BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OF TO OUR EAST. THE RAIN WILL
CHANGE TO SNOW THURSDAY EVENING...AS COLD AIR BEGINS FILTERING
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTH...AND UPSLOPE FLOW BEGINS TO OCCUR...THE SNOW WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SNOW
MOVES OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THURSDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER
EAST...AND THE FRONTS PARENT TROUGH ALOFT TAKES ITS ENERGY EAST AS
WELL. LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE FINALLY COMING TO AND END JUST BEFORE 0Z FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL FLUCTUATE QUITE A BIT.
TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH
LOWS IN THE 30S AND HIGHS IN THE 40S. AFTER ANOTHER COLD NIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S IN OUR NORTH AND
THE LOWER 30S IN OUR SOUTH...THE MERCURY IS EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO
ALMOST AS WARM WITH MOST OF THE AREA LIKELY TO SEE HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S. AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SURGE OF VERY COLD AIR IS FORECAST TO
SETTLE OVER THE AREA. THURSDAY MORNINGS LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS NORTH OF I64 PERHAPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS. THIS
AIR MASS WILL MAKE ITS PRIMARY PUSH INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY TOPPING OUT MOSTLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S. FRIDAY MORNINGS LOWS WILL MARK THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH MINIMUM VALUES RANGING
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
BE SLIGHTLY WARMER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS WINDS GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST. WE WILL SEE ONLY A SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT IN TEMPERATURES TO END THE WEEK...WITH FORECAST HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 20.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TODAY. LIGHT AND MAINLY VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED. SOME
MVFR CIGS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE AREA BY 00Z TONIGHT AS RAIN WILL
DEVELOP INTO THE AREA BY 06Z WITH SYM AND POINTS NORTH SEEING
SOME FREEZING RAIN. EXPECT MOST SITES TO SEE FIELD MINS AFTER
06Z.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER




000
FXUS63 KJKL 281250
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
750 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 750 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

MID LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER STREAMING IN OVERNIGHT HAS
KEPT UP LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. NO LOCATION DROPPED INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT. BESIDES TEMPS...THE FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK. SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER IS SHOWING UP ON THE REGIONAL
MOSAIC BUT A FEW FLURRIES MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE HEADING IN THROUGH
MIDDAY. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL
BE THE CONTINUED POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT AND THE 06Z
NAM SOUNDINGS SEEM TO CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS. THE WARM NOSE
CONTINUES TO BE SUCH THAT...ITS DIFFICULT TO SEE SNOW SOUTH OF THE
OHIO AT THIS POINT. STILL THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME
COUPLED WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BEING
ADVECTED IN TO OVERCOME THE DRY LAYER BEFORE SURFACE TEMPS WARM
ABOVE FREEZING TOWARDS DAWN CONTINUES TO BE PUZZLING. THEN THE
AMOUNT OF EVAPORATIVE COOLING COUPLED WITH ANY SNOW COVER...THE
FREEZING RAIN AND EVEN SLEET IN TRANSITION REMAIN A CREDIBLE
THREAT. WILL PASS ON THE SPS AND INFORM THE DAYSHIFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE NORTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER STREAMING IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER MOVING IN
OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE IN THE TEENS FOR LOWS
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS THAT ARE STILL SUPPORTING A
DECENT SNOWPACK. WITHIN THIS WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BE SOME
ISOLATED FLURRIES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA INTO THE AFTER DAWN
HOURS.

HEADING INTO THE DAY...850 SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP OVER THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY WITH A 30 KNOT LL JET. OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL THEN
DEVELOP BY SATURDAY EVENING INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KENTUCKY AND INTO INDIANA AS WELL AS OHIO. THIS WILL BRING PRECIP
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. WITH THIS
SET UP...THERE ARE A FEW CONCERNS. CURRENTLY THE AREA IS UNDER A
PRETTY DRY AIR MASS THERE WILL LIKELY BE INSTANCES ACROSS THE AREA
WHERE PRECIP WILL WET BULB COLD ENOUGH FOR FREEZING RAIN IN MOST
AREAS...ESPECIALLY WHERE THERE IS DECENT SNOWPACK. IF THE AMOUNT
OF QPF EXPECTED IS NOT ROBUST AT ONSET...THE COLUMN WONT SATURATE
IN TIME BEFORE SURFACE TEMPS WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN TO FALL. HI
RES MODEL BLENDS HINT AT THIS AS WELL WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO
THE UPPER 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS BY 06Z. CURRENT THINKING BASED
UPON WHAT THE NAM AND SREF ARE ADVERTISING...THE LL JET LOOKS TO
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND SATURATE THE
LOWER LEVELS. ENOUGH EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF FREEZING RAIN. SLEET MAY MIX IN AT
TIMES BUT THIS WILL BE A MAINLY TRANSIENT PRECIP TYPE FOR THIS
EVENT. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO BUT MAY BE
NEEDING AT LEAST A SPS AT THIS POINT FOR THE THREAT...ESPECIALLY
NOTICING MODELS ARE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE BRINGING PRECIP INTO
THE AREA.

LOWER LEVELS SHOULD WARM ENOUGH BY MID MORNING SUNDAY FOR PRECIP
TYPE TO BE ALL RAIN ACROSS THE AREA AS SOME WARM SURFACE
TEMPERATURES NOT SEEN IN QUITE AWHILE ADVECT INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS FOR SUNDAY WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
NEAR 50 WHICH IS ACTUALLY NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

VERY ACTIVE AND MESSY WEATHER ON TAP IN THE EXTENDED. THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS WERE NOT IN THE BEST OF AGREEMENT REGARDING PRECIP
ONSET AND EVOLUTION DURING THE PERIOD...WITH THE ECMWF BEING
SLOWER AND NOT QUITE AS WET AS THE GFS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. THE
INITIAL PRECIP EVENT LOOKS TO BE IN FULL SWING SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY...AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF THE
PRECIP WITH THIS FIRST BOUNDARY SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
SOME SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND
THE DEPARTED FRONT ON MONDAY. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS SNOW
SHOULD BE MINIMAL AT BEST. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN
EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN...A SECOND MORE DYNAMIC WEATHER SYSTEM
IS PROGGED TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD...PUSHING ITS WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. MOIST AIR OVERRUNNING THE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR A MESSY
MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...AND PERHAPS SOME SNOW DURING THIS
PERIOD. LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY...WHERE A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH OF ICE MAY ACCUMULATE ON EXPOSED AND ELEVATED SURFACES. THE
AIR AT THE SURFACE SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH MY MIDMORNING ON TUESDAY
FOR THE PRECIP TO FALL AS ALL RAIN. ONCE THE WARM FRONT HAS PAST
US BY...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS THEN ON TAP TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA FOR
A COUPLE OF DAYS. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES...WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS RAIN IN AND OF ITSELF MAY LEAD TO
FLOODING ISSUES. COMBINE THIS RAIN WITH RUNOFF FROM MELTING
SNOW...AND THINGS MAY GET INTERESTING. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH
THIS EVENT WILL BE WARMING TEMPERATURES AND THE MELTING OF THE
SNOW PACK THAT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE IN THE HEADWATERS OF THE
KENTUCKY...CUMBERLAND...AND BIG SANDY RIVERS. WITH THE MODELS
STILL PRODUCING A GOOD DEAL OF PRECIP TO BEGIN THE WEEK...WE WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING NEXT WEEK.

THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY
ON THURSDAY BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OF TO OUR EAST. THE RAIN WILL
CHANGE TO SNOW THURSDAY EVENING...AS COLD AIR BEGINS FILTERING
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTH...AND UPSLOPE FLOW BEGINS TO OCCUR...THE SNOW WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SNOW
MOVES OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THURSDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER
EAST...AND THE FRONTS PARENT TROUGH ALOFT TAKES ITS ENERGY EAST AS
WELL. LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE FINALLY COMING TO AND END JUST BEFORE 0Z FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL FLUCTUATE QUITE A BIT.
TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH
LOWS IN THE 30S AND HIGHS IN THE 40S. AFTER ANOTHER COLD NIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S IN OUR NORTH AND
THE LOWER 30S IN OUR SOUTH...THE MERCURY IS EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO
ALMOST AS WARM WITH MOST OF THE AREA LIKELY TO SEE HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S. AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SURGE OF VERY COLD AIR IS FORECAST TO
SETTLE OVER THE AREA. THURSDAY MORNINGS LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS NORTH OF I64 PERHAPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS. THIS
AIR MASS WILL MAKE ITS PRIMARY PUSH INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY TOPPING OUT MOSTLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S. FRIDAY MORNINGS LOWS WILL MARK THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH MINIMUM VALUES RANGING
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
BE SLIGHTLY WARMER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS WINDS GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST. WE WILL SEE ONLY A SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT IN TEMPERATURES TO END THE WEEK...WITH FORECAST HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 20.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TODAY. LIGHT AND MAINLY VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED. SOME
MVFR CIGS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE AREA BY 00Z TONIGHT AS RAIN WILL
DEVELOP INTO THE AREA BY 06Z WITH SYM AND POINTS NORTH SEEING
SOME FREEZING RAIN. EXPECT MOST SITES TO SEE FIELD MINS AFTER
06Z.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER




000
FXUS63 KJKL 281250
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
750 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 750 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

MID LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER STREAMING IN OVERNIGHT HAS
KEPT UP LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. NO LOCATION DROPPED INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT. BESIDES TEMPS...THE FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK. SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER IS SHOWING UP ON THE REGIONAL
MOSAIC BUT A FEW FLURRIES MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE HEADING IN THROUGH
MIDDAY. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL
BE THE CONTINUED POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT AND THE 06Z
NAM SOUNDINGS SEEM TO CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS. THE WARM NOSE
CONTINUES TO BE SUCH THAT...ITS DIFFICULT TO SEE SNOW SOUTH OF THE
OHIO AT THIS POINT. STILL THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME
COUPLED WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BEING
ADVECTED IN TO OVERCOME THE DRY LAYER BEFORE SURFACE TEMPS WARM
ABOVE FREEZING TOWARDS DAWN CONTINUES TO BE PUZZLING. THEN THE
AMOUNT OF EVAPORATIVE COOLING COUPLED WITH ANY SNOW COVER...THE
FREEZING RAIN AND EVEN SLEET IN TRANSITION REMAIN A CREDIBLE
THREAT. WILL PASS ON THE SPS AND INFORM THE DAYSHIFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE NORTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER STREAMING IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER MOVING IN
OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE IN THE TEENS FOR LOWS
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS THAT ARE STILL SUPPORTING A
DECENT SNOWPACK. WITHIN THIS WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BE SOME
ISOLATED FLURRIES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA INTO THE AFTER DAWN
HOURS.

HEADING INTO THE DAY...850 SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP OVER THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY WITH A 30 KNOT LL JET. OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL THEN
DEVELOP BY SATURDAY EVENING INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KENTUCKY AND INTO INDIANA AS WELL AS OHIO. THIS WILL BRING PRECIP
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. WITH THIS
SET UP...THERE ARE A FEW CONCERNS. CURRENTLY THE AREA IS UNDER A
PRETTY DRY AIR MASS THERE WILL LIKELY BE INSTANCES ACROSS THE AREA
WHERE PRECIP WILL WET BULB COLD ENOUGH FOR FREEZING RAIN IN MOST
AREAS...ESPECIALLY WHERE THERE IS DECENT SNOWPACK. IF THE AMOUNT
OF QPF EXPECTED IS NOT ROBUST AT ONSET...THE COLUMN WONT SATURATE
IN TIME BEFORE SURFACE TEMPS WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN TO FALL. HI
RES MODEL BLENDS HINT AT THIS AS WELL WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO
THE UPPER 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS BY 06Z. CURRENT THINKING BASED
UPON WHAT THE NAM AND SREF ARE ADVERTISING...THE LL JET LOOKS TO
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND SATURATE THE
LOWER LEVELS. ENOUGH EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF FREEZING RAIN. SLEET MAY MIX IN AT
TIMES BUT THIS WILL BE A MAINLY TRANSIENT PRECIP TYPE FOR THIS
EVENT. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO BUT MAY BE
NEEDING AT LEAST A SPS AT THIS POINT FOR THE THREAT...ESPECIALLY
NOTICING MODELS ARE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE BRINGING PRECIP INTO
THE AREA.

LOWER LEVELS SHOULD WARM ENOUGH BY MID MORNING SUNDAY FOR PRECIP
TYPE TO BE ALL RAIN ACROSS THE AREA AS SOME WARM SURFACE
TEMPERATURES NOT SEEN IN QUITE AWHILE ADVECT INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS FOR SUNDAY WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
NEAR 50 WHICH IS ACTUALLY NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

VERY ACTIVE AND MESSY WEATHER ON TAP IN THE EXTENDED. THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS WERE NOT IN THE BEST OF AGREEMENT REGARDING PRECIP
ONSET AND EVOLUTION DURING THE PERIOD...WITH THE ECMWF BEING
SLOWER AND NOT QUITE AS WET AS THE GFS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. THE
INITIAL PRECIP EVENT LOOKS TO BE IN FULL SWING SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY...AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF THE
PRECIP WITH THIS FIRST BOUNDARY SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
SOME SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND
THE DEPARTED FRONT ON MONDAY. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS SNOW
SHOULD BE MINIMAL AT BEST. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN
EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN...A SECOND MORE DYNAMIC WEATHER SYSTEM
IS PROGGED TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD...PUSHING ITS WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. MOIST AIR OVERRUNNING THE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR A MESSY
MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...AND PERHAPS SOME SNOW DURING THIS
PERIOD. LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY...WHERE A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH OF ICE MAY ACCUMULATE ON EXPOSED AND ELEVATED SURFACES. THE
AIR AT THE SURFACE SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH MY MIDMORNING ON TUESDAY
FOR THE PRECIP TO FALL AS ALL RAIN. ONCE THE WARM FRONT HAS PAST
US BY...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS THEN ON TAP TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA FOR
A COUPLE OF DAYS. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES...WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS RAIN IN AND OF ITSELF MAY LEAD TO
FLOODING ISSUES. COMBINE THIS RAIN WITH RUNOFF FROM MELTING
SNOW...AND THINGS MAY GET INTERESTING. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH
THIS EVENT WILL BE WARMING TEMPERATURES AND THE MELTING OF THE
SNOW PACK THAT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE IN THE HEADWATERS OF THE
KENTUCKY...CUMBERLAND...AND BIG SANDY RIVERS. WITH THE MODELS
STILL PRODUCING A GOOD DEAL OF PRECIP TO BEGIN THE WEEK...WE WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING NEXT WEEK.

THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY
ON THURSDAY BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OF TO OUR EAST. THE RAIN WILL
CHANGE TO SNOW THURSDAY EVENING...AS COLD AIR BEGINS FILTERING
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTH...AND UPSLOPE FLOW BEGINS TO OCCUR...THE SNOW WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SNOW
MOVES OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THURSDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER
EAST...AND THE FRONTS PARENT TROUGH ALOFT TAKES ITS ENERGY EAST AS
WELL. LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE FINALLY COMING TO AND END JUST BEFORE 0Z FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL FLUCTUATE QUITE A BIT.
TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH
LOWS IN THE 30S AND HIGHS IN THE 40S. AFTER ANOTHER COLD NIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S IN OUR NORTH AND
THE LOWER 30S IN OUR SOUTH...THE MERCURY IS EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO
ALMOST AS WARM WITH MOST OF THE AREA LIKELY TO SEE HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S. AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SURGE OF VERY COLD AIR IS FORECAST TO
SETTLE OVER THE AREA. THURSDAY MORNINGS LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS NORTH OF I64 PERHAPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS. THIS
AIR MASS WILL MAKE ITS PRIMARY PUSH INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY TOPPING OUT MOSTLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S. FRIDAY MORNINGS LOWS WILL MARK THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH MINIMUM VALUES RANGING
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
BE SLIGHTLY WARMER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS WINDS GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST. WE WILL SEE ONLY A SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT IN TEMPERATURES TO END THE WEEK...WITH FORECAST HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 20.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TODAY. LIGHT AND MAINLY VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED. SOME
MVFR CIGS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE AREA BY 00Z TONIGHT AS RAIN WILL
DEVELOP INTO THE AREA BY 06Z WITH SYM AND POINTS NORTH SEEING
SOME FREEZING RAIN. EXPECT MOST SITES TO SEE FIELD MINS AFTER
06Z.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER





000
FXUS63 KJKL 281139
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
639 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE NORTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER STREAMING IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER MOVING IN
OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE IN THE TEENS FOR LOWS
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS THAT ARE STILL SUPPORTING A
DECENT SNOWPACK. WITHIN THIS WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BE SOME
ISOLATED FLURRIES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA INTO THE AFTER DAWN
HOURS.

HEADING INTO THE DAY...850 SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP OVER THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY WITH A 30 KNOT LL JET. OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL THEN
DEVELOP BY SATURDAY EVENING INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KENTUCKY AND INTO INDIANA AS WELL AS OHIO. THIS WILL BRING PRECIP
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. WITH THIS
SET UP...THERE ARE A FEW CONCERNS. CURRENTLY THE AREA IS UNDER A
PRETTY DRY AIR MASS THERE WILL LIKELY BE INSTANCES ACROSS THE AREA
WHERE PRECIP WILL WET BULB COLD ENOUGH FOR FREEZING RAIN IN MOST
AREAS...ESPECIALLY WHERE THERE IS DECENT SNOWPACK. IF THE AMOUNT
OF QPF EXPECTED IS NOT ROBUST AT ONSET...THE COLUMN WONT SATURATE
IN TIME BEFORE SURFACE TEMPS WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN TO FALL. HI
RES MODEL BLENDS HINT AT THIS AS WELL WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO
THE UPPER 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS BY 06Z. CURRENT THINKING BASED
UPON WHAT THE NAM AND SREF ARE ADVERTISING...THE LL JET LOOKS TO
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND SATURATE THE
LOWER LEVELS. ENOUGH EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF FREEZING RAIN. SLEET MAY MIX IN AT
TIMES BUT THIS WILL BE A MAINLY TRANSIENT PRECIP TYPE FOR THIS
EVENT. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO BUT MAY BE
NEEDING AT LEAST A SPS AT THIS POINT FOR THE THREAT...ESPECIALLY
NOTICING MODELS ARE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE BRINGING PRECIP INTO
THE AREA.

LOWER LEVELS SHOULD WARM ENOUGH BY MID MORNING SUNDAY FOR PRECIP
TYPE TO BE ALL RAIN ACROSS THE AREA AS SOME WARM SURFACE
TEMPERATURES NOT SEEN IN QUITE AWHILE ADVECT INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS FOR SUNDAY WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
NEAR 50 WHICH IS ACTUALLY NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

VERY ACTIVE AND MESSY WEATHER ON TAP IN THE EXTENDED. THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS WERE NOT IN THE BEST OF AGREEMENT REGARDING PRECIP
ONSET AND EVOLUTION DURING THE PERIOD...WITH THE ECMWF BEING
SLOWER AND NOT QUITE AS WET AS THE GFS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. THE
INITIAL PRECIP EVENT LOOKS TO BE IN FULL SWING SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY...AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF THE
PRECIP WITH THIS FIRST BOUNDARY SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
SOME SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND
THE DEPARTED FRONT ON MONDAY. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS SNOW
SHOULD BE MINIMAL AT BEST. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN
EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN...A SECOND MORE DYNAMIC WEATHER SYSTEM
IS PROGGED TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD...PUSHING ITS WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. MOIST AIR OVERRUNNING THE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR A MESSY
MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...AND PERHAPS SOME SNOW DURING THIS
PERIOD. LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY...WHERE A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH OF ICE MAY ACCUMULATE ON EXPOSED AND ELEVATED SURFACES. THE
AIR AT THE SURFACE SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH MY MIDMORNING ON TUESDAY
FOR THE PRECIP TO FALL AS ALL RAIN. ONCE THE WARM FRONT HAS PAST
US BY...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS THEN ON TAP TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA FOR
A COUPLE OF DAYS. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES...WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS RAIN IN AND OF ITSELF MAY LEAD TO
FLOODING ISSUES. COMBINE THIS RAIN WITH RUNOFF FROM MELTING
SNOW...AND THINGS MAY GET INTERESTING. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH
THIS EVENT WILL BE WARMING TEMPERATURES AND THE MELTING OF THE
SNOW PACK THAT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE IN THE HEADWATERS OF THE
KENTUCKY...CUMBERLAND...AND BIG SANDY RIVERS. WITH THE MODELS
STILL PRODUCING A GOOD DEAL OF PRECIP TO BEGIN THE WEEK...WE WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING NEXT WEEK.

THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY
ON THURSDAY BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OF TO OUR EAST. THE RAIN WILL
CHANGE TO SNOW THURSDAY EVENING...AS COLD AIR BEGINS FILTERING
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTH...AND UPSLOPE FLOW BEGINS TO OCCUR...THE SNOW WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SNOW
MOVES OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THURSDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER
EAST...AND THE FRONTS PARENT TROUGH ALOFT TAKES ITS ENERGY EAST AS
WELL. LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE FINALLY COMING TO AND END JUST BEFORE 0Z FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL FLUCTUATE QUITE A BIT.
TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH
LOWS IN THE 30S AND HIGHS IN THE 40S. AFTER ANOTHER COLD NIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S IN OUR NORTH AND
THE LOWER 30S IN OUR SOUTH...THE MERCURY IS EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO
ALMOST AS WARM WITH MOST OF THE AREA LIKELY TO SEE HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S. AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SURGE OF VERY COLD AIR IS FORECAST TO
SETTLE OVER THE AREA. THURSDAY MORNINGS LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS NORTH OF I64 PERHAPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS. THIS
AIR MASS WILL MAKE ITS PRIMARY PUSH INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY TOPPING OUT MOSTLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S. FRIDAY MORNINGS LOWS WILL MARK THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH MINIMUM VALUES RANGING
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
BE SLIGHTLY WARMER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS WINDS GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST. WE WILL SEE ONLY A SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT IN TEMPERATURES TO END THE WEEK...WITH FORECAST HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 20.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TODAY. LIGHT AND MAINLY VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED. SOME
MVFR CIGS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE AREA BY 00Z TONIGHT AS RAIN WILL
DEVELOP INTO THE AREA BY 06Z WITH SYM AND POINTS NORTH SEEING
SOME FREEZING RAIN. EXPECT MOST SITES TO SEE FIELD MINS AFTER
06Z.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER




000
FXUS63 KJKL 281139
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
639 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE NORTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER STREAMING IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER MOVING IN
OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE IN THE TEENS FOR LOWS
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS THAT ARE STILL SUPPORTING A
DECENT SNOWPACK. WITHIN THIS WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BE SOME
ISOLATED FLURRIES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA INTO THE AFTER DAWN
HOURS.

HEADING INTO THE DAY...850 SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP OVER THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY WITH A 30 KNOT LL JET. OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL THEN
DEVELOP BY SATURDAY EVENING INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KENTUCKY AND INTO INDIANA AS WELL AS OHIO. THIS WILL BRING PRECIP
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. WITH THIS
SET UP...THERE ARE A FEW CONCERNS. CURRENTLY THE AREA IS UNDER A
PRETTY DRY AIR MASS THERE WILL LIKELY BE INSTANCES ACROSS THE AREA
WHERE PRECIP WILL WET BULB COLD ENOUGH FOR FREEZING RAIN IN MOST
AREAS...ESPECIALLY WHERE THERE IS DECENT SNOWPACK. IF THE AMOUNT
OF QPF EXPECTED IS NOT ROBUST AT ONSET...THE COLUMN WONT SATURATE
IN TIME BEFORE SURFACE TEMPS WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN TO FALL. HI
RES MODEL BLENDS HINT AT THIS AS WELL WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO
THE UPPER 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS BY 06Z. CURRENT THINKING BASED
UPON WHAT THE NAM AND SREF ARE ADVERTISING...THE LL JET LOOKS TO
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND SATURATE THE
LOWER LEVELS. ENOUGH EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF FREEZING RAIN. SLEET MAY MIX IN AT
TIMES BUT THIS WILL BE A MAINLY TRANSIENT PRECIP TYPE FOR THIS
EVENT. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO BUT MAY BE
NEEDING AT LEAST A SPS AT THIS POINT FOR THE THREAT...ESPECIALLY
NOTICING MODELS ARE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE BRINGING PRECIP INTO
THE AREA.

LOWER LEVELS SHOULD WARM ENOUGH BY MID MORNING SUNDAY FOR PRECIP
TYPE TO BE ALL RAIN ACROSS THE AREA AS SOME WARM SURFACE
TEMPERATURES NOT SEEN IN QUITE AWHILE ADVECT INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS FOR SUNDAY WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
NEAR 50 WHICH IS ACTUALLY NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

VERY ACTIVE AND MESSY WEATHER ON TAP IN THE EXTENDED. THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS WERE NOT IN THE BEST OF AGREEMENT REGARDING PRECIP
ONSET AND EVOLUTION DURING THE PERIOD...WITH THE ECMWF BEING
SLOWER AND NOT QUITE AS WET AS THE GFS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. THE
INITIAL PRECIP EVENT LOOKS TO BE IN FULL SWING SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY...AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF THE
PRECIP WITH THIS FIRST BOUNDARY SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
SOME SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND
THE DEPARTED FRONT ON MONDAY. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS SNOW
SHOULD BE MINIMAL AT BEST. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN
EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN...A SECOND MORE DYNAMIC WEATHER SYSTEM
IS PROGGED TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD...PUSHING ITS WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. MOIST AIR OVERRUNNING THE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR A MESSY
MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...AND PERHAPS SOME SNOW DURING THIS
PERIOD. LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY...WHERE A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH OF ICE MAY ACCUMULATE ON EXPOSED AND ELEVATED SURFACES. THE
AIR AT THE SURFACE SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH MY MIDMORNING ON TUESDAY
FOR THE PRECIP TO FALL AS ALL RAIN. ONCE THE WARM FRONT HAS PAST
US BY...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS THEN ON TAP TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA FOR
A COUPLE OF DAYS. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES...WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS RAIN IN AND OF ITSELF MAY LEAD TO
FLOODING ISSUES. COMBINE THIS RAIN WITH RUNOFF FROM MELTING
SNOW...AND THINGS MAY GET INTERESTING. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH
THIS EVENT WILL BE WARMING TEMPERATURES AND THE MELTING OF THE
SNOW PACK THAT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE IN THE HEADWATERS OF THE
KENTUCKY...CUMBERLAND...AND BIG SANDY RIVERS. WITH THE MODELS
STILL PRODUCING A GOOD DEAL OF PRECIP TO BEGIN THE WEEK...WE WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING NEXT WEEK.

THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY
ON THURSDAY BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OF TO OUR EAST. THE RAIN WILL
CHANGE TO SNOW THURSDAY EVENING...AS COLD AIR BEGINS FILTERING
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTH...AND UPSLOPE FLOW BEGINS TO OCCUR...THE SNOW WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SNOW
MOVES OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THURSDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER
EAST...AND THE FRONTS PARENT TROUGH ALOFT TAKES ITS ENERGY EAST AS
WELL. LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE FINALLY COMING TO AND END JUST BEFORE 0Z FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL FLUCTUATE QUITE A BIT.
TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH
LOWS IN THE 30S AND HIGHS IN THE 40S. AFTER ANOTHER COLD NIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S IN OUR NORTH AND
THE LOWER 30S IN OUR SOUTH...THE MERCURY IS EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO
ALMOST AS WARM WITH MOST OF THE AREA LIKELY TO SEE HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S. AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SURGE OF VERY COLD AIR IS FORECAST TO
SETTLE OVER THE AREA. THURSDAY MORNINGS LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS NORTH OF I64 PERHAPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS. THIS
AIR MASS WILL MAKE ITS PRIMARY PUSH INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY TOPPING OUT MOSTLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S. FRIDAY MORNINGS LOWS WILL MARK THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH MINIMUM VALUES RANGING
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
BE SLIGHTLY WARMER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS WINDS GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST. WE WILL SEE ONLY A SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT IN TEMPERATURES TO END THE WEEK...WITH FORECAST HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 20.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TODAY. LIGHT AND MAINLY VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED. SOME
MVFR CIGS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE AREA BY 00Z TONIGHT AS RAIN WILL
DEVELOP INTO THE AREA BY 06Z WITH SYM AND POINTS NORTH SEEING
SOME FREEZING RAIN. EXPECT MOST SITES TO SEE FIELD MINS AFTER
06Z.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER





000
FXUS63 KJKL 280900
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
400 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE NORTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER STREAMING IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER MOVING IN
OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE IN THE TEENS FOR LOWS
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS THAT ARE STILL SUPPORTING A
DECENT SNOWPACK. WITHIN THIS WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BE SOME
ISOLATED FLURRIES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA INTO THE AFTER DAWN
HOURS.

HEADING INTO THE DAY...850 SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP OVER THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY WITH A 30 KNOT LL JET. OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL THEN
DEVELOP BY SATURDAY EVENING INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KENTUCKY AND INTO INDIANA AS WELL AS OHIO. THIS WILL BRING PRECIP
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. WITH THIS
SET UP...THERE ARE A FEW CONCERNS. CURRENTLY THE AREA IS UNDER A
PRETTY DRY AIR MASS THERE WILL LIKELY BE INSTANCES ACROSS THE AREA
WHERE PRECIP WILL WET BULB COLD ENOUGH FOR FREEZING RAIN IN MOST
AREAS...ESPECIALLY WHERE THERE IS DECENT SNOWPACK. IF THE AMOUNT
OF QPF EXPECTED IS NOT ROBUST AT ONSET...THE COLUMN WONT SATURATE
IN TIME BEFORE SURFACE TEMPS WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN TO FALL. HI
RES MODEL BLENDS HINT AT THIS AS WELL WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO
THE UPPER 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS BY 06Z. CURRENT THINKING BASED
UPON WHAT THE NAM AND SREF ARE ADVERTISING...THE LL JET LOOKS TO
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND SATURATE THE
LOWER LEVELS. ENOUGH EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF FREEZING RAIN. SLEET MAY MIX IN AT
TIMES BUT THIS WILL BE A MAINLY TRANSIENT PRECIP TYPE FOR THIS
EVENT. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO BUT MAY BE
NEEDING AT LEAST A SPS AT THIS POINT FOR THE THREAT...ESPECIALLY
NOTICING MODELS ARE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE BRINGING PRECIP INTO
THE AREA.

LOWER LEVELS SHOULD WARM ENOUGH BY MID MORNING SUNDAY FOR PRECIP
TYPE TO BE ALL RAIN ACROSS THE AREA AS SOME WARM SURFACE
TEMPERATURES NOT SEEN IN QUITE AWHILE ADVECT INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS FOR SUNDAY WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
NEAR 50 WHICH IS ACTUALLY NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

VERY ACTIVE AND MESSY WEATHER ON TAP IN THE EXTENDED. THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS WERE NOT IN THE BEST OF AGREEMENT REGARDING PRECIP
ONSET AND EVOLUTION DURING THE PERIOD...WITH THE ECMWF BEING
SLOWER AND NOT QUITE AS WET AS THE GFS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. THE
INITIAL PRECIP EVENT LOOKS TO BE IN FULL SWING SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY...AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF THE
PRECIP WITH THIS FIRST BOUNDARY SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
SOME SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND
THE DEPARTED FRONT ON MONDAY. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS SNOW
SHOULD BE MINIMAL AT BEST. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN
EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN...A SECOND MORE DYNAMIC WEATHER SYSTEM
IS PROGGED TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD...PUSHING ITS WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. MOIST AIR OVERRUNNING THE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR A MESSY
MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...AND PERHAPS SOME SNOW DURING THIS
PERIOD. LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY...WHERE A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH OF ICE MAY ACCUMULATE ON EXPOSED AND ELEVATED SURFACES. THE
AIR AT THE SURFACE SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH MY MIDMORNING ON TUESDAY
FOR THE PRECIP TO FALL AS ALL RAIN. ONCE THE WARM FRONT HAS PAST
US BY...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS THEN ON TAP TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA FOR
A COUPLE OF DAYS. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES...WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS RAIN IN AND OF ITSELF MAY LEAD TO
FLOODING ISSUES. COMBINE THIS RAIN WITH RUNOFF FROM MELTING
SNOW...AND THINGS MAY GET INTERESTING. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH
THIS EVENT WILL BE WARMING TEMPERATURES AND THE MELTING OF THE
SNOW PACK THAT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE IN THE HEADWATERS OF THE
KENTUCKY...CUMBERLAND...AND BIG SANDY RIVERS. WITH THE MODELS
STILL PRODUCING A GOOD DEAL OF PRECIP TO BEGIN THE WEEK...WE WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING NEXT WEEK.

THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY
ON THURSDAY BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OF TO OUR EAST. THE RAIN WILL
CHANGE TO SNOW THURSDAY EVENING...AS COLD AIR BEGINS FILTERING
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTH...AND UPSLOPE FLOW BEGINS TO OCCUR...THE SNOW WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SNOW
MOVES OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THURSDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER
EAST...AND THE FRONTS PARENT TROUGH ALOFT TAKES ITS ENERGY EAST AS
WELL. LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE FINALLY COMING TO AND END JUST BEFORE 0Z FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL FLUCTUATE QUITE A BIT.
TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH
LOWS IN THE 30S AND HIGHS IN THE 40S. AFTER ANOTHER COLD NIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S IN OUR NORTH AND
THE LOWER 30S IN OUR SOUTH...THE MERCURY IS EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO
ALMOST AS WARM WITH MOST OF THE AREA LIKELY TO SEE HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S. AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SURGE OF VERY COLD AIR IS FORECAST TO
SETTLE OVER THE AREA. THURSDAY MORNINGS LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS NORTH OF I64 PERHAPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS. THIS
AIR MASS WILL MAKE ITS PRIMARY PUSH INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY TOPPING OUT MOSTLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S. FRIDAY MORNINGS LOWS WILL MARK THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH MINIMUM VALUES RANGING
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
BE SLIGHTLY WARMER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS WINDS GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST. WE WILL SEE ONLY A SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT IN TEMPERATURES TO END THE WEEK...WITH FORECAST HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 20.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1259 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TOMORROW. SOME MVFR CIGS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE AREA BY 00Z
TOMORROW NIGHT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER





000
FXUS63 KJKL 280900
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
400 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE NORTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER STREAMING IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER MOVING IN
OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE IN THE TEENS FOR LOWS
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS THAT ARE STILL SUPPORTING A
DECENT SNOWPACK. WITHIN THIS WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BE SOME
ISOLATED FLURRIES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA INTO THE AFTER DAWN
HOURS.

HEADING INTO THE DAY...850 SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP OVER THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY WITH A 30 KNOT LL JET. OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL THEN
DEVELOP BY SATURDAY EVENING INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KENTUCKY AND INTO INDIANA AS WELL AS OHIO. THIS WILL BRING PRECIP
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. WITH THIS
SET UP...THERE ARE A FEW CONCERNS. CURRENTLY THE AREA IS UNDER A
PRETTY DRY AIR MASS THERE WILL LIKELY BE INSTANCES ACROSS THE AREA
WHERE PRECIP WILL WET BULB COLD ENOUGH FOR FREEZING RAIN IN MOST
AREAS...ESPECIALLY WHERE THERE IS DECENT SNOWPACK. IF THE AMOUNT
OF QPF EXPECTED IS NOT ROBUST AT ONSET...THE COLUMN WONT SATURATE
IN TIME BEFORE SURFACE TEMPS WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN TO FALL. HI
RES MODEL BLENDS HINT AT THIS AS WELL WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO
THE UPPER 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS BY 06Z. CURRENT THINKING BASED
UPON WHAT THE NAM AND SREF ARE ADVERTISING...THE LL JET LOOKS TO
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND SATURATE THE
LOWER LEVELS. ENOUGH EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF FREEZING RAIN. SLEET MAY MIX IN AT
TIMES BUT THIS WILL BE A MAINLY TRANSIENT PRECIP TYPE FOR THIS
EVENT. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO BUT MAY BE
NEEDING AT LEAST A SPS AT THIS POINT FOR THE THREAT...ESPECIALLY
NOTICING MODELS ARE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE BRINGING PRECIP INTO
THE AREA.

LOWER LEVELS SHOULD WARM ENOUGH BY MID MORNING SUNDAY FOR PRECIP
TYPE TO BE ALL RAIN ACROSS THE AREA AS SOME WARM SURFACE
TEMPERATURES NOT SEEN IN QUITE AWHILE ADVECT INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS FOR SUNDAY WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
NEAR 50 WHICH IS ACTUALLY NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

VERY ACTIVE AND MESSY WEATHER ON TAP IN THE EXTENDED. THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS WERE NOT IN THE BEST OF AGREEMENT REGARDING PRECIP
ONSET AND EVOLUTION DURING THE PERIOD...WITH THE ECMWF BEING
SLOWER AND NOT QUITE AS WET AS THE GFS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. THE
INITIAL PRECIP EVENT LOOKS TO BE IN FULL SWING SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY...AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF THE
PRECIP WITH THIS FIRST BOUNDARY SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
SOME SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND
THE DEPARTED FRONT ON MONDAY. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS SNOW
SHOULD BE MINIMAL AT BEST. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN
EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN...A SECOND MORE DYNAMIC WEATHER SYSTEM
IS PROGGED TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD...PUSHING ITS WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. MOIST AIR OVERRUNNING THE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR A MESSY
MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...AND PERHAPS SOME SNOW DURING THIS
PERIOD. LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY...WHERE A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH OF ICE MAY ACCUMULATE ON EXPOSED AND ELEVATED SURFACES. THE
AIR AT THE SURFACE SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH MY MIDMORNING ON TUESDAY
FOR THE PRECIP TO FALL AS ALL RAIN. ONCE THE WARM FRONT HAS PAST
US BY...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS THEN ON TAP TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA FOR
A COUPLE OF DAYS. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES...WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS RAIN IN AND OF ITSELF MAY LEAD TO
FLOODING ISSUES. COMBINE THIS RAIN WITH RUNOFF FROM MELTING
SNOW...AND THINGS MAY GET INTERESTING. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH
THIS EVENT WILL BE WARMING TEMPERATURES AND THE MELTING OF THE
SNOW PACK THAT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE IN THE HEADWATERS OF THE
KENTUCKY...CUMBERLAND...AND BIG SANDY RIVERS. WITH THE MODELS
STILL PRODUCING A GOOD DEAL OF PRECIP TO BEGIN THE WEEK...WE WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING NEXT WEEK.

THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY
ON THURSDAY BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OF TO OUR EAST. THE RAIN WILL
CHANGE TO SNOW THURSDAY EVENING...AS COLD AIR BEGINS FILTERING
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTH...AND UPSLOPE FLOW BEGINS TO OCCUR...THE SNOW WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SNOW
MOVES OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THURSDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER
EAST...AND THE FRONTS PARENT TROUGH ALOFT TAKES ITS ENERGY EAST AS
WELL. LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE FINALLY COMING TO AND END JUST BEFORE 0Z FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL FLUCTUATE QUITE A BIT.
TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH
LOWS IN THE 30S AND HIGHS IN THE 40S. AFTER ANOTHER COLD NIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S IN OUR NORTH AND
THE LOWER 30S IN OUR SOUTH...THE MERCURY IS EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO
ALMOST AS WARM WITH MOST OF THE AREA LIKELY TO SEE HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S. AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SURGE OF VERY COLD AIR IS FORECAST TO
SETTLE OVER THE AREA. THURSDAY MORNINGS LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS NORTH OF I64 PERHAPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS. THIS
AIR MASS WILL MAKE ITS PRIMARY PUSH INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY TOPPING OUT MOSTLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S. FRIDAY MORNINGS LOWS WILL MARK THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH MINIMUM VALUES RANGING
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
BE SLIGHTLY WARMER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS WINDS GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST. WE WILL SEE ONLY A SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT IN TEMPERATURES TO END THE WEEK...WITH FORECAST HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 20.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1259 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TOMORROW. SOME MVFR CIGS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE AREA BY 00Z
TOMORROW NIGHT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER




000
FXUS63 KJKL 280829
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
329 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE NORTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER STREAMING IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER MOVING IN
OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE IN THE TEENS FOR LOWS
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS THAT ARE STILL SUPPORTING A
DECENT SNOWPACK. WITHIN THIS WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BE SOME
ISOLATED FLURRIES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA INTO THE AFTER DAWN
HOURS.

HEADING INTO THE DAY...850 SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP OVER THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY WITH A 30 KNOT LL JET. OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL THEN
DEVELOP BY SATURDAY EVENING INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KENTUCKY AND INTO INDIANA AS WELL AS OHIO. THIS WILL BRING PRECIP
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. WITH THIS
SET UP...THERE ARE A FEW CONCERNS. CURRENTLY THE AREA IS UNDER A
PRETTY DRY AIR MASS THERE WILL LIKELY BE INSTANCES ACROSS THE AREA
WHERE PRECIP WILL WET BULB COLD ENOUGH FOR FREEZING RAIN IN MOST
AREAS...ESPECIALLY WHERE THERE IS DECENT SNOWPACK. IF THE AMOUNT
OF QPF EXPECTED IS NOT ROBUST AT ONSET...THE COLUMN WONT SATURATE
IN TIME BEFORE SURFACE TEMPS WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN TO FALL. HI
RES MODEL BLENDS HINT AT THIS AS WELL WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO
THE UPPER 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS BY 06Z. CURRENT THINKING BASED
UPON WHAT THE NAM AND SREF ARE ADVERTISING...THE LL JET LOOKS TO
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND SATURATE THE
LOWER LEVELS. ENOUGH EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF FREEZING RAIN. SLEET MAY MIX IN AT
TIMES BUT THIS WILL BE A MAINLY TRANSIENT PRECIP TYPE FOR THIS
EVENT. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO BUT MAY BE
NEEDING AT LEAST A SPS AT THIS POINT FOR THE THREAT...ESPECIALLY
NOTICING MODELS ARE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE BRINGING PRECIP INTO
THE AREA.

LOWER LEVELS SHOULD WARM ENOUGH BY MID MORNING SUNDAY FOR PRECIP
TYPE TO BE ALL RAIN ACROSS THE AREA AS SOME WARM SURFACE
TEMPERATURES NOT SEEN IN QUITE AWHILE ADVECT INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS FOR SUNDAY WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
NEAR 50 WHICH IS ACTUALLY NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1259 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TOMORROW. SOME MVFR CIGS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE AREA BY 00Z
TOMORROW NIGHT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER




000
FXUS63 KJKL 280829
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
329 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE NORTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER STREAMING IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER MOVING IN
OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE IN THE TEENS FOR LOWS
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS THAT ARE STILL SUPPORTING A
DECENT SNOWPACK. WITHIN THIS WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BE SOME
ISOLATED FLURRIES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA INTO THE AFTER DAWN
HOURS.

HEADING INTO THE DAY...850 SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP OVER THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY WITH A 30 KNOT LL JET. OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL THEN
DEVELOP BY SATURDAY EVENING INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KENTUCKY AND INTO INDIANA AS WELL AS OHIO. THIS WILL BRING PRECIP
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. WITH THIS
SET UP...THERE ARE A FEW CONCERNS. CURRENTLY THE AREA IS UNDER A
PRETTY DRY AIR MASS THERE WILL LIKELY BE INSTANCES ACROSS THE AREA
WHERE PRECIP WILL WET BULB COLD ENOUGH FOR FREEZING RAIN IN MOST
AREAS...ESPECIALLY WHERE THERE IS DECENT SNOWPACK. IF THE AMOUNT
OF QPF EXPECTED IS NOT ROBUST AT ONSET...THE COLUMN WONT SATURATE
IN TIME BEFORE SURFACE TEMPS WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN TO FALL. HI
RES MODEL BLENDS HINT AT THIS AS WELL WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO
THE UPPER 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS BY 06Z. CURRENT THINKING BASED
UPON WHAT THE NAM AND SREF ARE ADVERTISING...THE LL JET LOOKS TO
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND SATURATE THE
LOWER LEVELS. ENOUGH EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF FREEZING RAIN. SLEET MAY MIX IN AT
TIMES BUT THIS WILL BE A MAINLY TRANSIENT PRECIP TYPE FOR THIS
EVENT. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO BUT MAY BE
NEEDING AT LEAST A SPS AT THIS POINT FOR THE THREAT...ESPECIALLY
NOTICING MODELS ARE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE BRINGING PRECIP INTO
THE AREA.

LOWER LEVELS SHOULD WARM ENOUGH BY MID MORNING SUNDAY FOR PRECIP
TYPE TO BE ALL RAIN ACROSS THE AREA AS SOME WARM SURFACE
TEMPERATURES NOT SEEN IN QUITE AWHILE ADVECT INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS FOR SUNDAY WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
NEAR 50 WHICH IS ACTUALLY NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1259 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TOMORROW. SOME MVFR CIGS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE AREA BY 00Z
TOMORROW NIGHT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER





000
FXUS63 KJKL 280557
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1257 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1259 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

INCREASED CLOUD COVER MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTWEST IS KEEPING
TEMPS FROM FALLING OFF TONIGHT QUITE WELL. HAVE UPDATED TO ADJUST
HOURLY TEMPS. WHILE SOME OF THE DEEPEST VALLEYS MAY CRACK THE
SINGLE DIGIT MARK...THINKING MOST PLACES WILL MAKE IT INTO THE
LOWER TEENS ONLY. HAVE UPDATED AND SENT A FRESHENED SET OF GRIDS
TO THE NDFD SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 728 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

UPDATED TO REFLECT MORE CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WITH OVERCAST
SKIES EXPECTED LATER ON TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A QUICK DROP
IN TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING BEFORE THEY HOLD STEADY OR AT LEAST
SLOW DOWN THE FALL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT UNDER THE
CLOUD COVER. ALSO BASED ON THE NAM BUFR SOUNDING OUT OF
LEXINGTON...OPTED FOR SOME FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS
SHOWED A BIT MORE DRY AIR...BUT STILL CLOUD HEIGHTS LOW ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SOME FLURRIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

MID AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS ZONAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER TO SPEAK OF OTHER THAN THE APPROACH
OF A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE COLD
AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AT THE ONSET OF ANY PRECIPITATION
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

NAM ADVERTISES A 40-50 KT H925-H850 LLJ DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH BRINGS IN A WARM NOSE OF AT LEAST
+5C. TYPICALLY THE NAM HANDLES THE WARM NOSE BETTER THAN THE GFS SO
EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT MAY DEVELOP DURING THAT TIME FRAME TO
MELT ALOFT. THE REST DEPENDS ON BOUNDARY LAYER AND SFC TEMPS. WITH A
DECENT SNOW PACK STILL IN PLACE...ONLY A BRIEF FEW HOURS OF TEMPS
ABOVE FREEZING SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND A 5-6 INCH FROST DEPTH
EXPECT MUCH OF THE AREA WOULD BE AT RISK FOR A WINTRY MIX AT THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION.

OTHERWISE WE ARE LOOKING AT ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT TONIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AREA...MID TEENS FOR THE REST. CONSEQUENTLY...ANY MELTING OF SFC
SNOWFALL AND ICE WILL REFREEZE OVERNIGHT. SOME AREA ROAD WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO SEE SOME ISOLD SLICK SPOTS. TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A
EFFORT TO REBOUND TOMORROW BUT INCOMING CLOUD COVER MAY DAMPEN THE
WARM UP CONSIDERABLY. FOR NOW WENT MORE OPTIMISTIC AND TOOK
AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S...NEAR 40 FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

COMPLEX LONG TERM FORECAST WITH THE PRIMARY CONCERN REMAINING THE
POSSIBILITY FOR FLOODING. ANYTIME YOU SEE AN UPPER LOW EJECTING
OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AIMED
TOWARD THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...YOU NEED TO TAKE NOTICE.
THIS IS A PATTERN THAT PRODUCES HEAVY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN AN
AXIS SOMEWHERE UNDERNEATH THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET. TYPICALLY THIS SEEMS TO SET UP JUST TO OUR WEST...
HOWEVER 12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO TARGET CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY
AS HAVING A SHOT AT RECEIVING 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL NEXT WEEK.
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING AND SNOW PACK MELTING IN THE HEADWATERS
OF THE CUMBERLAND...KENTUCKY AND BIG SANDY RIVERS...THIS POTENTIAL
RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE WORRISOME. THERE ARE NO BIG CHANGES IN
THE MODELING FROM YESTERDAY REGARDING THIS FLOOD THREAT SO WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT AND RAISE AWARENESS OF THIS POTENTIAL THREAT.

AS FOR THE DETAILS...A SLUG OF PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT GETS DRAWN TO THE NORTH INTO
OUR REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY MORNING
WITH SURFACE TEMPS LIKELY SLOW TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING WHILE STRONG
WARM NOSE PUNCHES IN ALOFT. ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF PRECIP
EXPECTED. THIS WARM FRONT WILL GET PUSHED BACK TO OUR SOUTH ON
MONDAY AS THE SPONSORING TROUGH ALOFT SWINGS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
BREAK IN THE PRECIP MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...
WHICH WILL SEND THE WARM FRONT BACK THROUGH US AND TO OUR NORTH.
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL SEND MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD WITH
PWATS PROGGED TO EXCEED 1.25 INCHES BY TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT RAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY...TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TUESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THEN EVENTUALLY SHIFTS EAST...PUSHING THE FRONT TO OUR
EAST AND CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE PRECIP WILL END AS A
PERIOD OF SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS COLDER AIR FILTERS
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1259 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TOMORROW. SOME MVFR CIGS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE AREA BY 00Z
TOMORROW NIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER




000
FXUS63 KJKL 280557
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1257 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1259 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

INCREASED CLOUD COVER MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTWEST IS KEEPING
TEMPS FROM FALLING OFF TONIGHT QUITE WELL. HAVE UPDATED TO ADJUST
HOURLY TEMPS. WHILE SOME OF THE DEEPEST VALLEYS MAY CRACK THE
SINGLE DIGIT MARK...THINKING MOST PLACES WILL MAKE IT INTO THE
LOWER TEENS ONLY. HAVE UPDATED AND SENT A FRESHENED SET OF GRIDS
TO THE NDFD SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 728 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

UPDATED TO REFLECT MORE CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WITH OVERCAST
SKIES EXPECTED LATER ON TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A QUICK DROP
IN TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING BEFORE THEY HOLD STEADY OR AT LEAST
SLOW DOWN THE FALL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT UNDER THE
CLOUD COVER. ALSO BASED ON THE NAM BUFR SOUNDING OUT OF
LEXINGTON...OPTED FOR SOME FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS
SHOWED A BIT MORE DRY AIR...BUT STILL CLOUD HEIGHTS LOW ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SOME FLURRIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

MID AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS ZONAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER TO SPEAK OF OTHER THAN THE APPROACH
OF A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE COLD
AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AT THE ONSET OF ANY PRECIPITATION
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

NAM ADVERTISES A 40-50 KT H925-H850 LLJ DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH BRINGS IN A WARM NOSE OF AT LEAST
+5C. TYPICALLY THE NAM HANDLES THE WARM NOSE BETTER THAN THE GFS SO
EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT MAY DEVELOP DURING THAT TIME FRAME TO
MELT ALOFT. THE REST DEPENDS ON BOUNDARY LAYER AND SFC TEMPS. WITH A
DECENT SNOW PACK STILL IN PLACE...ONLY A BRIEF FEW HOURS OF TEMPS
ABOVE FREEZING SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND A 5-6 INCH FROST DEPTH
EXPECT MUCH OF THE AREA WOULD BE AT RISK FOR A WINTRY MIX AT THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION.

OTHERWISE WE ARE LOOKING AT ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT TONIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AREA...MID TEENS FOR THE REST. CONSEQUENTLY...ANY MELTING OF SFC
SNOWFALL AND ICE WILL REFREEZE OVERNIGHT. SOME AREA ROAD WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO SEE SOME ISOLD SLICK SPOTS. TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A
EFFORT TO REBOUND TOMORROW BUT INCOMING CLOUD COVER MAY DAMPEN THE
WARM UP CONSIDERABLY. FOR NOW WENT MORE OPTIMISTIC AND TOOK
AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S...NEAR 40 FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

COMPLEX LONG TERM FORECAST WITH THE PRIMARY CONCERN REMAINING THE
POSSIBILITY FOR FLOODING. ANYTIME YOU SEE AN UPPER LOW EJECTING
OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AIMED
TOWARD THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...YOU NEED TO TAKE NOTICE.
THIS IS A PATTERN THAT PRODUCES HEAVY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN AN
AXIS SOMEWHERE UNDERNEATH THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET. TYPICALLY THIS SEEMS TO SET UP JUST TO OUR WEST...
HOWEVER 12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO TARGET CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY
AS HAVING A SHOT AT RECEIVING 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL NEXT WEEK.
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING AND SNOW PACK MELTING IN THE HEADWATERS
OF THE CUMBERLAND...KENTUCKY AND BIG SANDY RIVERS...THIS POTENTIAL
RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE WORRISOME. THERE ARE NO BIG CHANGES IN
THE MODELING FROM YESTERDAY REGARDING THIS FLOOD THREAT SO WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT AND RAISE AWARENESS OF THIS POTENTIAL THREAT.

AS FOR THE DETAILS...A SLUG OF PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT GETS DRAWN TO THE NORTH INTO
OUR REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY MORNING
WITH SURFACE TEMPS LIKELY SLOW TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING WHILE STRONG
WARM NOSE PUNCHES IN ALOFT. ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF PRECIP
EXPECTED. THIS WARM FRONT WILL GET PUSHED BACK TO OUR SOUTH ON
MONDAY AS THE SPONSORING TROUGH ALOFT SWINGS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
BREAK IN THE PRECIP MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...
WHICH WILL SEND THE WARM FRONT BACK THROUGH US AND TO OUR NORTH.
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL SEND MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD WITH
PWATS PROGGED TO EXCEED 1.25 INCHES BY TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT RAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY...TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TUESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THEN EVENTUALLY SHIFTS EAST...PUSHING THE FRONT TO OUR
EAST AND CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE PRECIP WILL END AS A
PERIOD OF SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS COLDER AIR FILTERS
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1259 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TOMORROW. SOME MVFR CIGS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE AREA BY 00Z
TOMORROW NIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER





000
FXUS63 KJKL 280028
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
728 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 728 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

UPDATED TO REFLECT MORE CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WITH OVERCAST
SKIES EXPECTED LATER ON TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A QUICK DROP
IN TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING BEFORE THEY HOLD STEADY OR AT LEAST
SLOW DOWN THE FALL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT UNDER THE
CLOUD COVER. ALSO BASED ON THE NAM BUFR SOUNDING OUT OF
LEXINGTON...OPTED FOR SOME FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS
SHOWED A BIT MORE DRY AIR...BUT STILL CLOUD HEIGHTS LOW ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SOME FLURRIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

MID AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS ZONAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER TO SPEAK OF OTHER THAN THE APPROACH
OF A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE COLD
AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AT THE ONSET OF ANY PRECIPITATION
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

NAM ADVERTISES A 40-50 KT H925-H850 LLJ DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH BRINGS IN A WARM NOSE OF AT LEAST
+5C. TYPICALLY THE NAM HANDLES THE WARM NOSE BETTER THAN THE GFS SO
EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT MAY DEVELOP DURING THAT TIME FRAME TO
MELT ALOFT. THE REST DEPENDS ON BOUNDARY LAYER AND SFC TEMPS. WITH A
DECENT SNOW PACK STILL IN PLACE...ONLY A BRIEF FEW HOURS OF TEMPS
ABOVE FREEZING SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND A 5-6 INCH FROST DEPTH
EXPECT MUCH OF THE AREA WOULD BE AT RISK FOR A WINTRY MIX AT THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION.

OTHERWISE WE ARE LOOKING AT ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT TONIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AREA...MID TEENS FOR THE REST. CONSEQUENTLY...ANY MELTING OF SFC
SNOWFALL AND ICE WILL REFREEZE OVERNIGHT. SOME AREA ROAD WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO SEE SOME ISOLD SLICK SPOTS. TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A
EFFORT TO REBOUND TOMORROW BUT INCOMING CLOUD COVER MAY DAMPEN THE
WARM UP CONSIDERABLY. FOR NOW WENT MORE OPTIMISTIC AND TOOK
AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S...NEAR 40 FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

COMPLEX LONG TERM FORECAST WITH THE PRIMARY CONCERN REMAINING THE
POSSIBILITY FOR FLOODING. ANYTIME YOU SEE AN UPPER LOW EJECTING
OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AIMED
TOWARD THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...YOU NEED TO TAKE NOTICE.
THIS IS A PATTERN THAT PRODUCES HEAVY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN AN
AXIS SOMEWHERE UNDERNEATH THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET. TYPICALLY THIS SEEMS TO SET UP JUST TO OUR WEST...
HOWEVER 12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO TARGET CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY
AS HAVING A SHOT AT RECEIVING 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL NEXT WEEK.
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING AND SNOW PACK MELTING IN THE HEADWATERS
OF THE CUMBERLAND...KENTUCKY AND BIG SANDY RIVERS...THIS POTENTIAL
RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE WORRISOME. THERE ARE NO BIG CHANGES IN
THE MODELING FROM YESTERDAY REGARDING THIS FLOOD THREAT SO WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT AND RAISE AWARENESS OF THIS POTENTIAL THREAT.

AS FOR THE DETAILS...A SLUG OF PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT GETS DRAWN TO THE NORTH INTO
OUR REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY MORNING
WITH SURFACE TEMPS LIKELY SLOW TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING WHILE STRONG
WARM NOSE PUNCHES IN ALOFT. ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF PRECIP
EXPECTED. THIS WARM FRONT WILL GET PUSHED BACK TO OUR SOUTH ON
MONDAY AS THE SPONSORING TROUGH ALOFT SWINGS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
BREAK IN THE PRECIP MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...
WHICH WILL SEND THE WARM FRONT BACK THROUGH US AND TO OUR NORTH.
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL SEND MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD WITH
PWATS PROGGED TO EXCEED 1.25 INCHES BY TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT RAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY...TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TUESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THEN EVENTUALLY SHIFTS EAST...PUSHING THE FRONT TO OUR
EAST AND CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE PRECIP WILL END AS A
PERIOD OF SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS COLDER AIR FILTERS
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 728 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS LATER
TONIGHT...BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 6KFT. LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...KAS




000
FXUS63 KJKL 280028
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
728 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 728 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

UPDATED TO REFLECT MORE CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WITH OVERCAST
SKIES EXPECTED LATER ON TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A QUICK DROP
IN TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING BEFORE THEY HOLD STEADY OR AT LEAST
SLOW DOWN THE FALL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT UNDER THE
CLOUD COVER. ALSO BASED ON THE NAM BUFR SOUNDING OUT OF
LEXINGTON...OPTED FOR SOME FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS
SHOWED A BIT MORE DRY AIR...BUT STILL CLOUD HEIGHTS LOW ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SOME FLURRIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

MID AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS ZONAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER TO SPEAK OF OTHER THAN THE APPROACH
OF A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE COLD
AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AT THE ONSET OF ANY PRECIPITATION
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

NAM ADVERTISES A 40-50 KT H925-H850 LLJ DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH BRINGS IN A WARM NOSE OF AT LEAST
+5C. TYPICALLY THE NAM HANDLES THE WARM NOSE BETTER THAN THE GFS SO
EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT MAY DEVELOP DURING THAT TIME FRAME TO
MELT ALOFT. THE REST DEPENDS ON BOUNDARY LAYER AND SFC TEMPS. WITH A
DECENT SNOW PACK STILL IN PLACE...ONLY A BRIEF FEW HOURS OF TEMPS
ABOVE FREEZING SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND A 5-6 INCH FROST DEPTH
EXPECT MUCH OF THE AREA WOULD BE AT RISK FOR A WINTRY MIX AT THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION.

OTHERWISE WE ARE LOOKING AT ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT TONIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AREA...MID TEENS FOR THE REST. CONSEQUENTLY...ANY MELTING OF SFC
SNOWFALL AND ICE WILL REFREEZE OVERNIGHT. SOME AREA ROAD WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO SEE SOME ISOLD SLICK SPOTS. TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A
EFFORT TO REBOUND TOMORROW BUT INCOMING CLOUD COVER MAY DAMPEN THE
WARM UP CONSIDERABLY. FOR NOW WENT MORE OPTIMISTIC AND TOOK
AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S...NEAR 40 FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

COMPLEX LONG TERM FORECAST WITH THE PRIMARY CONCERN REMAINING THE
POSSIBILITY FOR FLOODING. ANYTIME YOU SEE AN UPPER LOW EJECTING
OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AIMED
TOWARD THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...YOU NEED TO TAKE NOTICE.
THIS IS A PATTERN THAT PRODUCES HEAVY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN AN
AXIS SOMEWHERE UNDERNEATH THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET. TYPICALLY THIS SEEMS TO SET UP JUST TO OUR WEST...
HOWEVER 12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO TARGET CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY
AS HAVING A SHOT AT RECEIVING 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL NEXT WEEK.
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING AND SNOW PACK MELTING IN THE HEADWATERS
OF THE CUMBERLAND...KENTUCKY AND BIG SANDY RIVERS...THIS POTENTIAL
RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE WORRISOME. THERE ARE NO BIG CHANGES IN
THE MODELING FROM YESTERDAY REGARDING THIS FLOOD THREAT SO WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT AND RAISE AWARENESS OF THIS POTENTIAL THREAT.

AS FOR THE DETAILS...A SLUG OF PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT GETS DRAWN TO THE NORTH INTO
OUR REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY MORNING
WITH SURFACE TEMPS LIKELY SLOW TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING WHILE STRONG
WARM NOSE PUNCHES IN ALOFT. ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF PRECIP
EXPECTED. THIS WARM FRONT WILL GET PUSHED BACK TO OUR SOUTH ON
MONDAY AS THE SPONSORING TROUGH ALOFT SWINGS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
BREAK IN THE PRECIP MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...
WHICH WILL SEND THE WARM FRONT BACK THROUGH US AND TO OUR NORTH.
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL SEND MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD WITH
PWATS PROGGED TO EXCEED 1.25 INCHES BY TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT RAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY...TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TUESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THEN EVENTUALLY SHIFTS EAST...PUSHING THE FRONT TO OUR
EAST AND CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE PRECIP WILL END AS A
PERIOD OF SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS COLDER AIR FILTERS
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 728 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS LATER
TONIGHT...BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 6KFT. LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...KAS





000
FXUS63 KJKL 280028
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
728 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 728 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

UPDATED TO REFLECT MORE CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WITH OVERCAST
SKIES EXPECTED LATER ON TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A QUICK DROP
IN TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING BEFORE THEY HOLD STEADY OR AT LEAST
SLOW DOWN THE FALL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT UNDER THE
CLOUD COVER. ALSO BASED ON THE NAM BUFR SOUNDING OUT OF
LEXINGTON...OPTED FOR SOME FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS
SHOWED A BIT MORE DRY AIR...BUT STILL CLOUD HEIGHTS LOW ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SOME FLURRIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

MID AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS ZONAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER TO SPEAK OF OTHER THAN THE APPROACH
OF A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE COLD
AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AT THE ONSET OF ANY PRECIPITATION
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

NAM ADVERTISES A 40-50 KT H925-H850 LLJ DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH BRINGS IN A WARM NOSE OF AT LEAST
+5C. TYPICALLY THE NAM HANDLES THE WARM NOSE BETTER THAN THE GFS SO
EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT MAY DEVELOP DURING THAT TIME FRAME TO
MELT ALOFT. THE REST DEPENDS ON BOUNDARY LAYER AND SFC TEMPS. WITH A
DECENT SNOW PACK STILL IN PLACE...ONLY A BRIEF FEW HOURS OF TEMPS
ABOVE FREEZING SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND A 5-6 INCH FROST DEPTH
EXPECT MUCH OF THE AREA WOULD BE AT RISK FOR A WINTRY MIX AT THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION.

OTHERWISE WE ARE LOOKING AT ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT TONIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AREA...MID TEENS FOR THE REST. CONSEQUENTLY...ANY MELTING OF SFC
SNOWFALL AND ICE WILL REFREEZE OVERNIGHT. SOME AREA ROAD WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO SEE SOME ISOLD SLICK SPOTS. TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A
EFFORT TO REBOUND TOMORROW BUT INCOMING CLOUD COVER MAY DAMPEN THE
WARM UP CONSIDERABLY. FOR NOW WENT MORE OPTIMISTIC AND TOOK
AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S...NEAR 40 FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

COMPLEX LONG TERM FORECAST WITH THE PRIMARY CONCERN REMAINING THE
POSSIBILITY FOR FLOODING. ANYTIME YOU SEE AN UPPER LOW EJECTING
OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AIMED
TOWARD THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...YOU NEED TO TAKE NOTICE.
THIS IS A PATTERN THAT PRODUCES HEAVY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN AN
AXIS SOMEWHERE UNDERNEATH THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET. TYPICALLY THIS SEEMS TO SET UP JUST TO OUR WEST...
HOWEVER 12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO TARGET CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY
AS HAVING A SHOT AT RECEIVING 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL NEXT WEEK.
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING AND SNOW PACK MELTING IN THE HEADWATERS
OF THE CUMBERLAND...KENTUCKY AND BIG SANDY RIVERS...THIS POTENTIAL
RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE WORRISOME. THERE ARE NO BIG CHANGES IN
THE MODELING FROM YESTERDAY REGARDING THIS FLOOD THREAT SO WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT AND RAISE AWARENESS OF THIS POTENTIAL THREAT.

AS FOR THE DETAILS...A SLUG OF PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT GETS DRAWN TO THE NORTH INTO
OUR REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY MORNING
WITH SURFACE TEMPS LIKELY SLOW TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING WHILE STRONG
WARM NOSE PUNCHES IN ALOFT. ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF PRECIP
EXPECTED. THIS WARM FRONT WILL GET PUSHED BACK TO OUR SOUTH ON
MONDAY AS THE SPONSORING TROUGH ALOFT SWINGS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
BREAK IN THE PRECIP MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...
WHICH WILL SEND THE WARM FRONT BACK THROUGH US AND TO OUR NORTH.
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL SEND MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD WITH
PWATS PROGGED TO EXCEED 1.25 INCHES BY TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT RAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY...TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TUESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THEN EVENTUALLY SHIFTS EAST...PUSHING THE FRONT TO OUR
EAST AND CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE PRECIP WILL END AS A
PERIOD OF SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS COLDER AIR FILTERS
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 728 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS LATER
TONIGHT...BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 6KFT. LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...KAS





000
FXUS63 KJKL 280028
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
728 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 728 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

UPDATED TO REFLECT MORE CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WITH OVERCAST
SKIES EXPECTED LATER ON TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A QUICK DROP
IN TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING BEFORE THEY HOLD STEADY OR AT LEAST
SLOW DOWN THE FALL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT UNDER THE
CLOUD COVER. ALSO BASED ON THE NAM BUFR SOUNDING OUT OF
LEXINGTON...OPTED FOR SOME FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS
SHOWED A BIT MORE DRY AIR...BUT STILL CLOUD HEIGHTS LOW ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SOME FLURRIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

MID AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS ZONAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER TO SPEAK OF OTHER THAN THE APPROACH
OF A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE COLD
AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AT THE ONSET OF ANY PRECIPITATION
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

NAM ADVERTISES A 40-50 KT H925-H850 LLJ DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH BRINGS IN A WARM NOSE OF AT LEAST
+5C. TYPICALLY THE NAM HANDLES THE WARM NOSE BETTER THAN THE GFS SO
EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT MAY DEVELOP DURING THAT TIME FRAME TO
MELT ALOFT. THE REST DEPENDS ON BOUNDARY LAYER AND SFC TEMPS. WITH A
DECENT SNOW PACK STILL IN PLACE...ONLY A BRIEF FEW HOURS OF TEMPS
ABOVE FREEZING SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND A 5-6 INCH FROST DEPTH
EXPECT MUCH OF THE AREA WOULD BE AT RISK FOR A WINTRY MIX AT THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION.

OTHERWISE WE ARE LOOKING AT ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT TONIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AREA...MID TEENS FOR THE REST. CONSEQUENTLY...ANY MELTING OF SFC
SNOWFALL AND ICE WILL REFREEZE OVERNIGHT. SOME AREA ROAD WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO SEE SOME ISOLD SLICK SPOTS. TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A
EFFORT TO REBOUND TOMORROW BUT INCOMING CLOUD COVER MAY DAMPEN THE
WARM UP CONSIDERABLY. FOR NOW WENT MORE OPTIMISTIC AND TOOK
AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S...NEAR 40 FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

COMPLEX LONG TERM FORECAST WITH THE PRIMARY CONCERN REMAINING THE
POSSIBILITY FOR FLOODING. ANYTIME YOU SEE AN UPPER LOW EJECTING
OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AIMED
TOWARD THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...YOU NEED TO TAKE NOTICE.
THIS IS A PATTERN THAT PRODUCES HEAVY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN AN
AXIS SOMEWHERE UNDERNEATH THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET. TYPICALLY THIS SEEMS TO SET UP JUST TO OUR WEST...
HOWEVER 12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO TARGET CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY
AS HAVING A SHOT AT RECEIVING 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL NEXT WEEK.
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING AND SNOW PACK MELTING IN THE HEADWATERS
OF THE CUMBERLAND...KENTUCKY AND BIG SANDY RIVERS...THIS POTENTIAL
RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE WORRISOME. THERE ARE NO BIG CHANGES IN
THE MODELING FROM YESTERDAY REGARDING THIS FLOOD THREAT SO WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT AND RAISE AWARENESS OF THIS POTENTIAL THREAT.

AS FOR THE DETAILS...A SLUG OF PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT GETS DRAWN TO THE NORTH INTO
OUR REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY MORNING
WITH SURFACE TEMPS LIKELY SLOW TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING WHILE STRONG
WARM NOSE PUNCHES IN ALOFT. ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF PRECIP
EXPECTED. THIS WARM FRONT WILL GET PUSHED BACK TO OUR SOUTH ON
MONDAY AS THE SPONSORING TROUGH ALOFT SWINGS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
BREAK IN THE PRECIP MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...
WHICH WILL SEND THE WARM FRONT BACK THROUGH US AND TO OUR NORTH.
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL SEND MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD WITH
PWATS PROGGED TO EXCEED 1.25 INCHES BY TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT RAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY...TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TUESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THEN EVENTUALLY SHIFTS EAST...PUSHING THE FRONT TO OUR
EAST AND CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE PRECIP WILL END AS A
PERIOD OF SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS COLDER AIR FILTERS
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 728 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS LATER
TONIGHT...BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 6KFT. LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...KAS




000
FXUS63 KJKL 272113
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
413 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

MID AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS ZONAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER TO SPEAK OF OTHER THAN THE APPROACH
OF A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE COLD
AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AT THE ONSET OF ANY PRECIPITATION
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

NAM ADVERTISES A 40-50 KT H925-H850 LLJ DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH BRINGS IN A WARM NOSE OF AT LEAST
+5C. TYPICALLY THE NAM HANDLES THE WARM NOSE BETTER THAN THE GFS SO
EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT MAY DEVELOP DURING THAT TIME FRAME TO
MELT ALOFT. THE REST DEPENDS ON BOUNDARY LAYER AND SFC TEMPS. WITH A
DECENT SNOW PACK STILL IN PLACE...ONLY A BRIEF FEW HOURS OF TEMPS
ABOVE FREEZING SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND A 5-6 INCH FROST DEPTH
EXPECT MUCH OF THE AREA WOULD BE AT RISK FOR A WINTRY MIX AT THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION.

OTHERWISE WE ARE LOOKING AT ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT TONIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AREA...MID TEENS FOR THE REST. CONSEQUENTLY...ANY MELTING OF SFC
SNOWFALL AND ICE WILL REFREEZE OVERNIGHT. SOME AREA ROAD WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO SEE SOME ISOLD SLICK SPOTS. TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A
EFFORT TO REBOUND TOMORROW BUT INCOMING CLOUD COVER MAY DAMPEN THE
WARM UP CONSIDERABLY. FOR NOW WENT MORE OPTIMISTIC AND TOOK
AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S...NEAR 40 FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

COMPLEX LONG TERM FORECAST WITH THE PRIMARY CONCERN REMAINING THE
POSSIBILITY FOR FLOODING. ANYTIME YOU SEE AN UPPER LOW EJECTING
OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AIMED
TOWARD THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...YOU NEED TO TAKE NOTICE.
THIS IS A PATTERN THAT PRODUCES HEAVY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN AN
AXIS SOMEWHERE UNDERNEATH THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET. TYPICALLY THIS SEEMS TO SET UP JUST TO OUR WEST...
HOWEVER 12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO TARGET CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY
AS HAVING A SHOT AT RECEIVING 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL NEXT WEEK.
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING AND SNOW PACK MELTING IN THE HEADWATERS
OF THE CUMBERLAND...KENTUCKY AND BIG SANDY RIVERS...THIS POTENTIAL
RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE WORRISOME. THERE ARE NO BIG CHANGES IN
THE MODELING FROM YESTERDAY REGARDING THIS FLOOD THREAT SO WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT AND RAISE AWARENESS OF THIS POTENTIAL THREAT.

AS FOR THE DETAILS...A SLUG OF PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT GETS DRAWN TO THE NORTH INTO
OUR REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY MORNING
WITH SURFACE TEMPS LIKELY SLOW TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING WHILE STRONG
WARM NOSE PUNCHES IN ALOFT. ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF PRECIP
EXPECTED. THIS WARM FRONT WILL GET PUSHED BACK TO OUR SOUTH ON
MONDAY AS THE SPONSORING TROUGH ALOFT SWINGS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
BREAK IN THE PRECIP MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...
WHICH WILL SEND THE WARM FRONT BACK THROUGH US AND TO OUR NORTH.
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL SEND MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD WITH
PWATS PROGGED TO EXCEED 1.25 INCHES BY TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT RAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY...TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TUESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THEN EVENTUALLY SHIFTS EAST...PUSHING THE FRONT TO OUR
EAST AND CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE PRECIP WILL END AS A
PERIOD OF SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS COLDER AIR FILTERS
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 148 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

MARGINAL MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE START THE FORECAST...VFR
THEREAFTER. FLURRIES ARE ENDING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT
CU FIELD CONTINUES TO EXPAND A BIT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DIURNAL
HEATING. CU FIELD WILL LIFT A LITTLE BUT STILL EXPECTING CLOUD
BASES TO HOVER RIGHT AROUND 3 KFT...ESPECIALLY WHERE CIGS EXIST.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT...BETWEEN 3 AND 5 KTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD VEERING FROM OUT OF THE NORTH AND BECOMING MORE EASTERLY
WITH TIME.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...RAY




000
FXUS63 KJKL 272113
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
413 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

MID AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS ZONAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER TO SPEAK OF OTHER THAN THE APPROACH
OF A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE COLD
AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AT THE ONSET OF ANY PRECIPITATION
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

NAM ADVERTISES A 40-50 KT H925-H850 LLJ DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH BRINGS IN A WARM NOSE OF AT LEAST
+5C. TYPICALLY THE NAM HANDLES THE WARM NOSE BETTER THAN THE GFS SO
EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT MAY DEVELOP DURING THAT TIME FRAME TO
MELT ALOFT. THE REST DEPENDS ON BOUNDARY LAYER AND SFC TEMPS. WITH A
DECENT SNOW PACK STILL IN PLACE...ONLY A BRIEF FEW HOURS OF TEMPS
ABOVE FREEZING SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND A 5-6 INCH FROST DEPTH
EXPECT MUCH OF THE AREA WOULD BE AT RISK FOR A WINTRY MIX AT THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION.

OTHERWISE WE ARE LOOKING AT ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT TONIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AREA...MID TEENS FOR THE REST. CONSEQUENTLY...ANY MELTING OF SFC
SNOWFALL AND ICE WILL REFREEZE OVERNIGHT. SOME AREA ROAD WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO SEE SOME ISOLD SLICK SPOTS. TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A
EFFORT TO REBOUND TOMORROW BUT INCOMING CLOUD COVER MAY DAMPEN THE
WARM UP CONSIDERABLY. FOR NOW WENT MORE OPTIMISTIC AND TOOK
AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S...NEAR 40 FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

COMPLEX LONG TERM FORECAST WITH THE PRIMARY CONCERN REMAINING THE
POSSIBILITY FOR FLOODING. ANYTIME YOU SEE AN UPPER LOW EJECTING
OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AIMED
TOWARD THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...YOU NEED TO TAKE NOTICE.
THIS IS A PATTERN THAT PRODUCES HEAVY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN AN
AXIS SOMEWHERE UNDERNEATH THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET. TYPICALLY THIS SEEMS TO SET UP JUST TO OUR WEST...
HOWEVER 12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO TARGET CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY
AS HAVING A SHOT AT RECEIVING 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL NEXT WEEK.
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING AND SNOW PACK MELTING IN THE HEADWATERS
OF THE CUMBERLAND...KENTUCKY AND BIG SANDY RIVERS...THIS POTENTIAL
RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE WORRISOME. THERE ARE NO BIG CHANGES IN
THE MODELING FROM YESTERDAY REGARDING THIS FLOOD THREAT SO WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT AND RAISE AWARENESS OF THIS POTENTIAL THREAT.

AS FOR THE DETAILS...A SLUG OF PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT GETS DRAWN TO THE NORTH INTO
OUR REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY MORNING
WITH SURFACE TEMPS LIKELY SLOW TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING WHILE STRONG
WARM NOSE PUNCHES IN ALOFT. ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF PRECIP
EXPECTED. THIS WARM FRONT WILL GET PUSHED BACK TO OUR SOUTH ON
MONDAY AS THE SPONSORING TROUGH ALOFT SWINGS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
BREAK IN THE PRECIP MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...
WHICH WILL SEND THE WARM FRONT BACK THROUGH US AND TO OUR NORTH.
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL SEND MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD WITH
PWATS PROGGED TO EXCEED 1.25 INCHES BY TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT RAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY...TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TUESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THEN EVENTUALLY SHIFTS EAST...PUSHING THE FRONT TO OUR
EAST AND CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE PRECIP WILL END AS A
PERIOD OF SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS COLDER AIR FILTERS
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 148 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

MARGINAL MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE START THE FORECAST...VFR
THEREAFTER. FLURRIES ARE ENDING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT
CU FIELD CONTINUES TO EXPAND A BIT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DIURNAL
HEATING. CU FIELD WILL LIFT A LITTLE BUT STILL EXPECTING CLOUD
BASES TO HOVER RIGHT AROUND 3 KFT...ESPECIALLY WHERE CIGS EXIST.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT...BETWEEN 3 AND 5 KTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD VEERING FROM OUT OF THE NORTH AND BECOMING MORE EASTERLY
WITH TIME.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...RAY




000
FXUS63 KJKL 272113
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
413 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

MID AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS ZONAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER TO SPEAK OF OTHER THAN THE APPROACH
OF A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE COLD
AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AT THE ONSET OF ANY PRECIPITATION
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

NAM ADVERTISES A 40-50 KT H925-H850 LLJ DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH BRINGS IN A WARM NOSE OF AT LEAST
+5C. TYPICALLY THE NAM HANDLES THE WARM NOSE BETTER THAN THE GFS SO
EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT MAY DEVELOP DURING THAT TIME FRAME TO
MELT ALOFT. THE REST DEPENDS ON BOUNDARY LAYER AND SFC TEMPS. WITH A
DECENT SNOW PACK STILL IN PLACE...ONLY A BRIEF FEW HOURS OF TEMPS
ABOVE FREEZING SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND A 5-6 INCH FROST DEPTH
EXPECT MUCH OF THE AREA WOULD BE AT RISK FOR A WINTRY MIX AT THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION.

OTHERWISE WE ARE LOOKING AT ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT TONIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AREA...MID TEENS FOR THE REST. CONSEQUENTLY...ANY MELTING OF SFC
SNOWFALL AND ICE WILL REFREEZE OVERNIGHT. SOME AREA ROAD WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO SEE SOME ISOLD SLICK SPOTS. TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A
EFFORT TO REBOUND TOMORROW BUT INCOMING CLOUD COVER MAY DAMPEN THE
WARM UP CONSIDERABLY. FOR NOW WENT MORE OPTIMISTIC AND TOOK
AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S...NEAR 40 FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

COMPLEX LONG TERM FORECAST WITH THE PRIMARY CONCERN REMAINING THE
POSSIBILITY FOR FLOODING. ANYTIME YOU SEE AN UPPER LOW EJECTING
OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AIMED
TOWARD THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...YOU NEED TO TAKE NOTICE.
THIS IS A PATTERN THAT PRODUCES HEAVY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN AN
AXIS SOMEWHERE UNDERNEATH THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET. TYPICALLY THIS SEEMS TO SET UP JUST TO OUR WEST...
HOWEVER 12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO TARGET CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY
AS HAVING A SHOT AT RECEIVING 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL NEXT WEEK.
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING AND SNOW PACK MELTING IN THE HEADWATERS
OF THE CUMBERLAND...KENTUCKY AND BIG SANDY RIVERS...THIS POTENTIAL
RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE WORRISOME. THERE ARE NO BIG CHANGES IN
THE MODELING FROM YESTERDAY REGARDING THIS FLOOD THREAT SO WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT AND RAISE AWARENESS OF THIS POTENTIAL THREAT.

AS FOR THE DETAILS...A SLUG OF PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT GETS DRAWN TO THE NORTH INTO
OUR REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY MORNING
WITH SURFACE TEMPS LIKELY SLOW TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING WHILE STRONG
WARM NOSE PUNCHES IN ALOFT. ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF PRECIP
EXPECTED. THIS WARM FRONT WILL GET PUSHED BACK TO OUR SOUTH ON
MONDAY AS THE SPONSORING TROUGH ALOFT SWINGS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
BREAK IN THE PRECIP MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...
WHICH WILL SEND THE WARM FRONT BACK THROUGH US AND TO OUR NORTH.
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL SEND MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD WITH
PWATS PROGGED TO EXCEED 1.25 INCHES BY TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT RAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY...TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TUESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THEN EVENTUALLY SHIFTS EAST...PUSHING THE FRONT TO OUR
EAST AND CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE PRECIP WILL END AS A
PERIOD OF SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS COLDER AIR FILTERS
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 148 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

MARGINAL MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE START THE FORECAST...VFR
THEREAFTER. FLURRIES ARE ENDING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT
CU FIELD CONTINUES TO EXPAND A BIT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DIURNAL
HEATING. CU FIELD WILL LIFT A LITTLE BUT STILL EXPECTING CLOUD
BASES TO HOVER RIGHT AROUND 3 KFT...ESPECIALLY WHERE CIGS EXIST.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT...BETWEEN 3 AND 5 KTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD VEERING FROM OUT OF THE NORTH AND BECOMING MORE EASTERLY
WITH TIME.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...RAY





    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities