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000
FXUS63 KJKL 310254 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1054 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1054 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK TONIGHT...WITH SOME VALLEYS DIPPING
INTO THE 50S. MAINLY ADJUSTED THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT
FOR A QUICKER DROP OFF WITHIN THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 809 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

MAINLY FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. DAYTIME CU IS
DRYING UP...WITH JUST A TOUCH OF HIGH AND THIN CIRRUS MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST. THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN A
MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CLOSED LOW
AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION AND
EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN STATES. AT THE
SFC...A COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THE AREA LATE LAST NIGHT AND EARLY
THIS MORNING...CONTINUES TO DEPART TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. A
RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OH
VALLEY REGION...AND IS USHERING DRIER AIR ON NW FLOW. DEW POINTS
ARE AS LOW AS THE UPPER 50S IN NORTHERN KY...WITH LOW TO MID 50S
OVER PARTS OF INDIANA.

THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE AMPLIFIED.
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE TO THE WEST AND BECOME
CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH RIDGING NORTH BUILDING
NORTH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE...THE CLOSED LOW WILL
MEANDER TO FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
THE AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGH...ALTHOUGH
THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY EAST OF THE AREA. A
FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES PASSING BY IN THE FLOW SHOULD BRING NOTHING
MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS FROM TIME TIME. A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ASSOCIATED WITH ONE OF THESE SHORTWAVES SHOULD TRACK ACROSS
ONTARIO AND INTO QUEBEC LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH THE TRAILING
MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT POSSIBLY DROPPING SOUTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES LATE FRI NIGHT.

WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING IN TONIGHT...COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS...UP TO
10 DEGREES OR MORE COLDER THAN THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED.
DEW POINTS MOVING INTO THE NORTH SUGGEST A FEW LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S FOR VALLEYS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY. COOP MOS
GUIDANCE ALSO SUPPORTS THOSE NUMBERS. THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES SHOULD ALSO FAVOR SOME VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING ALONG A FEW OF
THE LARGER CREEKS AND NEAR AREA RIVERS AND LAKES.

FRIDAY SHOULD FEATURE HIGHS NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...WITH MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE DEW POINTSAND
HUMIDITIES COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. THE RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE LATE IN THE PERIOD...ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN MOST LOCATIONS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER TO TONIGHT. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
VALLEYS...WHERE THE DRIER AIR WILL BE A TAD SLOWER TO MOVE
IN...AND LOWS FRI NIGHT MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER COMPARED TO
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT A TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE OVER OUR AREA THROUGH MONDAY KEEPING OUR
FORECAST DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY. MODELS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT IN HOW THEY
HANDLE THIS FRONT FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK AND
THIS LOWERS FORECASTER CONFIDENCE. WHILE THE GFS INDICATES A QUICK
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRY
WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE GEM AND ECMWF INDICATE A
STALLED FRONT TO OUR NORTH OR OVERHEAD WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A MODEL BLEND GIVES SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND THAT SEEMS PRUDENT GIVEN
THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMS
NEXT WEEK WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED WELL TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 809 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
TONIGHT. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS WILL DIMINISH
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...WITH SOME MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT MOST TAF
SITES BETWEEN 08 AND 13Z...ALTHOUGH EXPECT THAT ANY IFR OR WORSE
FOG WILL BE MORE RESTRICTED TO THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AFTER 13Z...WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ON TAP.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN




000
FXUS63 KJKL 310254 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1054 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1054 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK TONIGHT...WITH SOME VALLEYS DIPPING
INTO THE 50S. MAINLY ADJUSTED THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT
FOR A QUICKER DROP OFF WITHIN THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 809 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

MAINLY FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. DAYTIME CU IS
DRYING UP...WITH JUST A TOUCH OF HIGH AND THIN CIRRUS MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST. THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN A
MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CLOSED LOW
AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION AND
EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN STATES. AT THE
SFC...A COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THE AREA LATE LAST NIGHT AND EARLY
THIS MORNING...CONTINUES TO DEPART TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. A
RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OH
VALLEY REGION...AND IS USHERING DRIER AIR ON NW FLOW. DEW POINTS
ARE AS LOW AS THE UPPER 50S IN NORTHERN KY...WITH LOW TO MID 50S
OVER PARTS OF INDIANA.

THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE AMPLIFIED.
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE TO THE WEST AND BECOME
CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH RIDGING NORTH BUILDING
NORTH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE...THE CLOSED LOW WILL
MEANDER TO FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
THE AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGH...ALTHOUGH
THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY EAST OF THE AREA. A
FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES PASSING BY IN THE FLOW SHOULD BRING NOTHING
MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS FROM TIME TIME. A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ASSOCIATED WITH ONE OF THESE SHORTWAVES SHOULD TRACK ACROSS
ONTARIO AND INTO QUEBEC LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH THE TRAILING
MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT POSSIBLY DROPPING SOUTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES LATE FRI NIGHT.

WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING IN TONIGHT...COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS...UP TO
10 DEGREES OR MORE COLDER THAN THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED.
DEW POINTS MOVING INTO THE NORTH SUGGEST A FEW LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S FOR VALLEYS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY. COOP MOS
GUIDANCE ALSO SUPPORTS THOSE NUMBERS. THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES SHOULD ALSO FAVOR SOME VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING ALONG A FEW OF
THE LARGER CREEKS AND NEAR AREA RIVERS AND LAKES.

FRIDAY SHOULD FEATURE HIGHS NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...WITH MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE DEW POINTSAND
HUMIDITIES COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. THE RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE LATE IN THE PERIOD...ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN MOST LOCATIONS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER TO TONIGHT. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
VALLEYS...WHERE THE DRIER AIR WILL BE A TAD SLOWER TO MOVE
IN...AND LOWS FRI NIGHT MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER COMPARED TO
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT A TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE OVER OUR AREA THROUGH MONDAY KEEPING OUR
FORECAST DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY. MODELS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT IN HOW THEY
HANDLE THIS FRONT FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK AND
THIS LOWERS FORECASTER CONFIDENCE. WHILE THE GFS INDICATES A QUICK
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRY
WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE GEM AND ECMWF INDICATE A
STALLED FRONT TO OUR NORTH OR OVERHEAD WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A MODEL BLEND GIVES SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND THAT SEEMS PRUDENT GIVEN
THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMS
NEXT WEEK WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED WELL TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 809 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
TONIGHT. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS WILL DIMINISH
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...WITH SOME MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT MOST TAF
SITES BETWEEN 08 AND 13Z...ALTHOUGH EXPECT THAT ANY IFR OR WORSE
FOG WILL BE MORE RESTRICTED TO THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AFTER 13Z...WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ON TAP.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN





000
FXUS63 KJKL 310009 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
809 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 809 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

MAINLY FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. DAYTIME CU IS
DRYING UP...WITH JUST A TOUCH OF HIGH AND THIN CIRRUS MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST. THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN A
MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CLOSED LOW
AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION AND
EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN STATES. AT THE
SFC...A COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THE AREA LATE LAST NIGHT AND EARLY
THIS MORNING...CONTINUES TO DEPART TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. A
RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OH
VALLEY REGION...AND IS USHERING DRIER AIR ON NW FLOW. DEW POINTS
ARE AS LOW AS THE UPPER 50S IN NORTHERN KY...WITH LOW TO MID 50S
OVER PARTS OF INDIANA.

THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE AMPLIFIED.
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE TO THE WEST AND BECOME
CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH RIDGING NORTH BUILDING
NORTH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE...THE CLOSED LOW WILL
MEANDER TO FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
THE AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGH...ALTHOUGH
THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY EAST OF THE AREA. A
FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES PASSING BY IN THE FLOW SHOULD BRING NOTHING
MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS FROM TIME TIME. A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ASSOCIATED WITH ONE OF THESE SHORTWAVES SHOULD TRACK ACROSS
ONTARIO AND INTO QUEBEC LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH THE TRAILING
MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT POSSIBLY DROPPING SOUTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES LATE FRI NIGHT.

WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING IN TONIGHT...COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS...UP TO
10 DEGREES OR MORE COLDER THAN THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED.
DEW POINTS MOVING INTO THE NORTH SUGGEST A FEW LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S FOR VALLEYS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY. COOP MOS
GUIDANCE ALSO SUPPORTS THOSE NUMBERS. THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES SHOULD ALSO FAVOR SOME VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING ALONG A FEW OF
THE LARGER CREEKS AND NEAR AREA RIVERS AND LAKES.

FRIDAY SHOULD FEATURE HIGHS NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...WITH MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE DEW POINTSAND
HUMIDITIES COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. THE RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE LATE IN THE PERIOD...ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN MOST LOCATIONS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER TO TONIGHT. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
VALLEYS...WHERE THE DRIER AIR WILL BE A TAD SLOWER TO MOVE
IN...AND LOWS FRI NIGHT MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER COMPARED TO
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT A TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE OVER OUR AREA THROUGH MONDAY KEEPING OUR
FORECAST DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY. MODELS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT IN HOW THEY
HANDLE THIS FRONT FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK AND
THIS LOWERS FORECASTER CONFIDENCE. WHILE THE GFS INDICATES A QUICK
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRY
WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE GEM AND ECMWF INDICATE A
STALLED FRONT TO OUR NORTH OR OVERHEAD WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A MODEL BLEND GIVES SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND THAT SEEMS PRUDENT GIVEN
THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMS
NEXT WEEK WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED WELL TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 809 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
TONIGHT. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS WILL DIMINISH
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...WITH SOME MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT MOST TAF
SITES BETWEEN 08 AND 13Z...ALTHOUGH EXPECT THAT ANY IFR OR WORSE
FOG WILL BE MORE RESTRICTED TO THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AFTER 13Z...WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ON TAP.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN




000
FXUS63 KJKL 310009 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
809 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 809 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

MAINLY FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. DAYTIME CU IS
DRYING UP...WITH JUST A TOUCH OF HIGH AND THIN CIRRUS MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST. THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN A
MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CLOSED LOW
AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION AND
EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN STATES. AT THE
SFC...A COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THE AREA LATE LAST NIGHT AND EARLY
THIS MORNING...CONTINUES TO DEPART TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. A
RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OH
VALLEY REGION...AND IS USHERING DRIER AIR ON NW FLOW. DEW POINTS
ARE AS LOW AS THE UPPER 50S IN NORTHERN KY...WITH LOW TO MID 50S
OVER PARTS OF INDIANA.

THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE AMPLIFIED.
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE TO THE WEST AND BECOME
CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH RIDGING NORTH BUILDING
NORTH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE...THE CLOSED LOW WILL
MEANDER TO FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
THE AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGH...ALTHOUGH
THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY EAST OF THE AREA. A
FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES PASSING BY IN THE FLOW SHOULD BRING NOTHING
MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS FROM TIME TIME. A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ASSOCIATED WITH ONE OF THESE SHORTWAVES SHOULD TRACK ACROSS
ONTARIO AND INTO QUEBEC LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH THE TRAILING
MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT POSSIBLY DROPPING SOUTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES LATE FRI NIGHT.

WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING IN TONIGHT...COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS...UP TO
10 DEGREES OR MORE COLDER THAN THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED.
DEW POINTS MOVING INTO THE NORTH SUGGEST A FEW LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S FOR VALLEYS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY. COOP MOS
GUIDANCE ALSO SUPPORTS THOSE NUMBERS. THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES SHOULD ALSO FAVOR SOME VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING ALONG A FEW OF
THE LARGER CREEKS AND NEAR AREA RIVERS AND LAKES.

FRIDAY SHOULD FEATURE HIGHS NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...WITH MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE DEW POINTSAND
HUMIDITIES COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. THE RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE LATE IN THE PERIOD...ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN MOST LOCATIONS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER TO TONIGHT. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
VALLEYS...WHERE THE DRIER AIR WILL BE A TAD SLOWER TO MOVE
IN...AND LOWS FRI NIGHT MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER COMPARED TO
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT A TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE OVER OUR AREA THROUGH MONDAY KEEPING OUR
FORECAST DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY. MODELS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT IN HOW THEY
HANDLE THIS FRONT FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK AND
THIS LOWERS FORECASTER CONFIDENCE. WHILE THE GFS INDICATES A QUICK
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRY
WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE GEM AND ECMWF INDICATE A
STALLED FRONT TO OUR NORTH OR OVERHEAD WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A MODEL BLEND GIVES SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND THAT SEEMS PRUDENT GIVEN
THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMS
NEXT WEEK WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED WELL TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 809 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
TONIGHT. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS WILL DIMINISH
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...WITH SOME MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT MOST TAF
SITES BETWEEN 08 AND 13Z...ALTHOUGH EXPECT THAT ANY IFR OR WORSE
FOG WILL BE MORE RESTRICTED TO THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AFTER 13Z...WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ON TAP.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN





000
FXUS63 KJKL 310009 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
809 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 809 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

MAINLY FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. DAYTIME CU IS
DRYING UP...WITH JUST A TOUCH OF HIGH AND THIN CIRRUS MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST. THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN A
MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CLOSED LOW
AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION AND
EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN STATES. AT THE
SFC...A COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THE AREA LATE LAST NIGHT AND EARLY
THIS MORNING...CONTINUES TO DEPART TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. A
RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OH
VALLEY REGION...AND IS USHERING DRIER AIR ON NW FLOW. DEW POINTS
ARE AS LOW AS THE UPPER 50S IN NORTHERN KY...WITH LOW TO MID 50S
OVER PARTS OF INDIANA.

THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE AMPLIFIED.
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE TO THE WEST AND BECOME
CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH RIDGING NORTH BUILDING
NORTH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE...THE CLOSED LOW WILL
MEANDER TO FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
THE AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGH...ALTHOUGH
THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY EAST OF THE AREA. A
FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES PASSING BY IN THE FLOW SHOULD BRING NOTHING
MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS FROM TIME TIME. A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ASSOCIATED WITH ONE OF THESE SHORTWAVES SHOULD TRACK ACROSS
ONTARIO AND INTO QUEBEC LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH THE TRAILING
MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT POSSIBLY DROPPING SOUTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES LATE FRI NIGHT.

WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING IN TONIGHT...COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS...UP TO
10 DEGREES OR MORE COLDER THAN THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED.
DEW POINTS MOVING INTO THE NORTH SUGGEST A FEW LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S FOR VALLEYS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY. COOP MOS
GUIDANCE ALSO SUPPORTS THOSE NUMBERS. THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES SHOULD ALSO FAVOR SOME VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING ALONG A FEW OF
THE LARGER CREEKS AND NEAR AREA RIVERS AND LAKES.

FRIDAY SHOULD FEATURE HIGHS NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...WITH MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE DEW POINTSAND
HUMIDITIES COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. THE RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE LATE IN THE PERIOD...ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN MOST LOCATIONS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER TO TONIGHT. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
VALLEYS...WHERE THE DRIER AIR WILL BE A TAD SLOWER TO MOVE
IN...AND LOWS FRI NIGHT MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER COMPARED TO
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT A TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE OVER OUR AREA THROUGH MONDAY KEEPING OUR
FORECAST DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY. MODELS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT IN HOW THEY
HANDLE THIS FRONT FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK AND
THIS LOWERS FORECASTER CONFIDENCE. WHILE THE GFS INDICATES A QUICK
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRY
WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE GEM AND ECMWF INDICATE A
STALLED FRONT TO OUR NORTH OR OVERHEAD WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A MODEL BLEND GIVES SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND THAT SEEMS PRUDENT GIVEN
THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMS
NEXT WEEK WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED WELL TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 809 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
TONIGHT. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS WILL DIMINISH
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...WITH SOME MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT MOST TAF
SITES BETWEEN 08 AND 13Z...ALTHOUGH EXPECT THAT ANY IFR OR WORSE
FOG WILL BE MORE RESTRICTED TO THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AFTER 13Z...WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ON TAP.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN




000
FXUS63 KJKL 310009 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
809 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 809 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

MAINLY FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. DAYTIME CU IS
DRYING UP...WITH JUST A TOUCH OF HIGH AND THIN CIRRUS MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST. THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN A
MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CLOSED LOW
AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION AND
EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN STATES. AT THE
SFC...A COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THE AREA LATE LAST NIGHT AND EARLY
THIS MORNING...CONTINUES TO DEPART TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. A
RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OH
VALLEY REGION...AND IS USHERING DRIER AIR ON NW FLOW. DEW POINTS
ARE AS LOW AS THE UPPER 50S IN NORTHERN KY...WITH LOW TO MID 50S
OVER PARTS OF INDIANA.

THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE AMPLIFIED.
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE TO THE WEST AND BECOME
CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH RIDGING NORTH BUILDING
NORTH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE...THE CLOSED LOW WILL
MEANDER TO FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
THE AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGH...ALTHOUGH
THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY EAST OF THE AREA. A
FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES PASSING BY IN THE FLOW SHOULD BRING NOTHING
MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS FROM TIME TIME. A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ASSOCIATED WITH ONE OF THESE SHORTWAVES SHOULD TRACK ACROSS
ONTARIO AND INTO QUEBEC LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH THE TRAILING
MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT POSSIBLY DROPPING SOUTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES LATE FRI NIGHT.

WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING IN TONIGHT...COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS...UP TO
10 DEGREES OR MORE COLDER THAN THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED.
DEW POINTS MOVING INTO THE NORTH SUGGEST A FEW LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S FOR VALLEYS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY. COOP MOS
GUIDANCE ALSO SUPPORTS THOSE NUMBERS. THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES SHOULD ALSO FAVOR SOME VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING ALONG A FEW OF
THE LARGER CREEKS AND NEAR AREA RIVERS AND LAKES.

FRIDAY SHOULD FEATURE HIGHS NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...WITH MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE DEW POINTSAND
HUMIDITIES COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. THE RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE LATE IN THE PERIOD...ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN MOST LOCATIONS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER TO TONIGHT. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
VALLEYS...WHERE THE DRIER AIR WILL BE A TAD SLOWER TO MOVE
IN...AND LOWS FRI NIGHT MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER COMPARED TO
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT A TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE OVER OUR AREA THROUGH MONDAY KEEPING OUR
FORECAST DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY. MODELS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT IN HOW THEY
HANDLE THIS FRONT FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK AND
THIS LOWERS FORECASTER CONFIDENCE. WHILE THE GFS INDICATES A QUICK
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRY
WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE GEM AND ECMWF INDICATE A
STALLED FRONT TO OUR NORTH OR OVERHEAD WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A MODEL BLEND GIVES SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND THAT SEEMS PRUDENT GIVEN
THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMS
NEXT WEEK WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED WELL TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 809 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
TONIGHT. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS WILL DIMINISH
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...WITH SOME MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT MOST TAF
SITES BETWEEN 08 AND 13Z...ALTHOUGH EXPECT THAT ANY IFR OR WORSE
FOG WILL BE MORE RESTRICTED TO THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AFTER 13Z...WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ON TAP.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN





000
FXUS63 KJKL 301912
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
312 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN A
MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CLOSED LOW
AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION AND
EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN STATES. AT THE
SFC...A COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THE AREA LATE LAST NIGHT AND EARLY
THIS MORNING...CONTINUES TO DEPART TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. A
RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OH
VALLEY REGION...AND IS USHERING DRIER AIR ON NW FLOW. DEWPOINTS
ARE AS LOW AS THE UPPER 50S IN NORTHERN KY...WITH LOW TO MID 50S
OVER PARTS OF INDIANA.

THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFIED. THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE TO THE WEST AND BECOME CENTERED
NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH RIDGING NORTH BUILDING NORTH
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE...THE CLOSED LOW WILL MEANDER
TO FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGH...ALTHOUGH THE
AXIS OF THE TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY EAST OF THE AREA. A FEW
WEAK SHORTWAVES PASSING BY IN THE FLOW SHOULD BRING NOTHING MORE
THAN A FEW CLOUDS FROM TIME TIME. A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ASSOCIATED WITH ONE OF THESE SHORTWAVES SHOULD TRACK ACROSS
ONTARIO AND INTO QUEBEC LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH THE TRAILING
MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT POSSIBLY DROPPING SOUTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES LATE FRI NIGHT.

WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING IN TONIGHT...COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS...UP TO
10 DEGREES OR MORE COLDER THAN THIS AM ARE EXPECTED. DEWPOINTS
MOVING INTO THE NORTH SUGGEST A FEW LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S FOR
VALLEYS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY. COOP MOS GUIDANCE ALSO
SUPPORTS THOSE NUMBERS. THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD
ALSO FAVOR SOME VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING ALONG A FEW OF THE LARGER
CREEKS AND NEAR AREA RIVERS AND LAKES.

FRIDAY SHOULD FEATURE HIGHS NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...WITH MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS
AND HUMIDITIES COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. THE RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE LATE IN THE PERIOD...ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN MOST LOCATIONS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER TO TONIGHT. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
VALLEYS...WHERE THE DRIER AIR WILL BE A TAD SLOWER TO MOVE
IN...AND LOWS FRI NIGHT MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER COMPARED TO
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT A TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE OVER OUR AREA THROUGH MONDAY KEEPING OUR
FORECAST DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY. MODELS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT IN HOW THEY
HANDLE THIS FRONT FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK AND
THIS LOWERS FORECASTER CONFIDENCE. WHILE THE GFS INDICATES A QUICK
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRY
WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE GEM AND ECMWF INDICATE A
STALLED FRONT TO OUR NORTH OR OVERHEAD WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A MODEL BLEND GIVES SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND THAT SEEMS PRUDENT GIVEN
THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMS
NEXT WEEK WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED WELL TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING MAINLY VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A BIT OF VALLEY FOG
LATE TONIGHT. VFR FOG MAY AFFECT LOZ...SME...SJS AND SYM DURING
THE 8Z TO 13Z WINDOW. HOWEVER...THE FOG COULD REDUCE VIS TO
IFR... OR PERHAPS TO AIRPORT MINS AT SOME OF THE NON TAF
LOCATIONS. ANY FOG SHOULD LIFT AND DISSIPATE AROUND 13Z...GIVING
WAY TO VFR IN ALL LOCATIONS TO END THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...HAL




000
FXUS63 KJKL 301912
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
312 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN A
MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CLOSED LOW
AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION AND
EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN STATES. AT THE
SFC...A COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THE AREA LATE LAST NIGHT AND EARLY
THIS MORNING...CONTINUES TO DEPART TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. A
RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OH
VALLEY REGION...AND IS USHERING DRIER AIR ON NW FLOW. DEWPOINTS
ARE AS LOW AS THE UPPER 50S IN NORTHERN KY...WITH LOW TO MID 50S
OVER PARTS OF INDIANA.

THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFIED. THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE TO THE WEST AND BECOME CENTERED
NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH RIDGING NORTH BUILDING NORTH
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE...THE CLOSED LOW WILL MEANDER
TO FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGH...ALTHOUGH THE
AXIS OF THE TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY EAST OF THE AREA. A FEW
WEAK SHORTWAVES PASSING BY IN THE FLOW SHOULD BRING NOTHING MORE
THAN A FEW CLOUDS FROM TIME TIME. A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ASSOCIATED WITH ONE OF THESE SHORTWAVES SHOULD TRACK ACROSS
ONTARIO AND INTO QUEBEC LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH THE TRAILING
MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT POSSIBLY DROPPING SOUTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES LATE FRI NIGHT.

WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING IN TONIGHT...COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS...UP TO
10 DEGREES OR MORE COLDER THAN THIS AM ARE EXPECTED. DEWPOINTS
MOVING INTO THE NORTH SUGGEST A FEW LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S FOR
VALLEYS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY. COOP MOS GUIDANCE ALSO
SUPPORTS THOSE NUMBERS. THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD
ALSO FAVOR SOME VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING ALONG A FEW OF THE LARGER
CREEKS AND NEAR AREA RIVERS AND LAKES.

FRIDAY SHOULD FEATURE HIGHS NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...WITH MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS
AND HUMIDITIES COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. THE RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE LATE IN THE PERIOD...ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN MOST LOCATIONS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER TO TONIGHT. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
VALLEYS...WHERE THE DRIER AIR WILL BE A TAD SLOWER TO MOVE
IN...AND LOWS FRI NIGHT MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER COMPARED TO
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT A TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE OVER OUR AREA THROUGH MONDAY KEEPING OUR
FORECAST DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY. MODELS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT IN HOW THEY
HANDLE THIS FRONT FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK AND
THIS LOWERS FORECASTER CONFIDENCE. WHILE THE GFS INDICATES A QUICK
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRY
WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE GEM AND ECMWF INDICATE A
STALLED FRONT TO OUR NORTH OR OVERHEAD WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A MODEL BLEND GIVES SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND THAT SEEMS PRUDENT GIVEN
THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMS
NEXT WEEK WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED WELL TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING MAINLY VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A BIT OF VALLEY FOG
LATE TONIGHT. VFR FOG MAY AFFECT LOZ...SME...SJS AND SYM DURING
THE 8Z TO 13Z WINDOW. HOWEVER...THE FOG COULD REDUCE VIS TO
IFR... OR PERHAPS TO AIRPORT MINS AT SOME OF THE NON TAF
LOCATIONS. ANY FOG SHOULD LIFT AND DISSIPATE AROUND 13Z...GIVING
WAY TO VFR IN ALL LOCATIONS TO END THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...HAL





000
FXUS63 KJKL 301846
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
246 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND TOWARD THE
CREST OF THE APPALACHIANS. DRIER AIR HAS BEGUN TO FILTER IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE OH VALLEY. WITH THE FRONT DEPARTING...THE THREAT FOR ANY
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR CONVECTION HAS ENDED. LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE VA
BORDER ARE ALSO BEGINNING TO LIFT INTO CU AND MIX OUT...FROM THE
TN VALLEY REGION AND FROM THE NORTHWEST. POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY... WITH REMAINING HOURLY GRIDS ALSO FRESHENED UP BASED
ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND SATELLITE TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 911 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

HOURLY POPS...AS WELL AS TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINTS WERE UPDATED
BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR TRENDS. A COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO WORK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ATTM. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY
REGION...WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION.

OVERALL...VERY LITTLE CHANGES WERE NEEDED ATTM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

CLOUDS WERE A BIT MORE EXTENSIVE THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED FOR THIS
MORNING...AND HAVE SLOWED THE CLEARING PROCESS SLIGHTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT WAS POSITIONED FROM NEAR KBNA TO
KCMH...AND WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST. IT WILL PASS THROUGH THE JKL
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. IT WILL ARRIVE AT AN UNFAVORABLE TIME
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT IT WILL NOT BE RULED OUT...AND A
20 PERCENT POP WAS USED. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND ALLOW FOR COOLER LOW TEMPS ON
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SOME VALLEYS PROBABLY FALLING INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT A TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE OVER OUR AREA THROUGH MONDAY KEEPING OUR
FORECAST DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY. MODELS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT IN HOW THEY
HANDLE THIS FRONT FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK AND
THIS LOWERS FORECASTER CONFIDENCE. WHILE THE GFS INDICATES A QUICK
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRY
WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE GEM AND ECMWF INDICATE A
STALLED FRONT TO OUR NORTH OR OVERHEAD WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A MODEL BLEND GIVES SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND THAT SEEMS PRUDENT GIVEN
THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMS
NEXT WEEK WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED WELL TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

CONDITIONS VARIED FROM LIFR TO VFR EARLY THIS MORNING....BUT WERE
MAINLY IFR AND MVFR. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR GENERALLY FROM NW TO
SE TODAY...WITH VFR EXPECTED JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. GOOD CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN LAST THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH JUST A BIT OF VALLEY FOG LATE TONIGHT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...HAL




000
FXUS63 KJKL 301846
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
246 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND TOWARD THE
CREST OF THE APPALACHIANS. DRIER AIR HAS BEGUN TO FILTER IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE OH VALLEY. WITH THE FRONT DEPARTING...THE THREAT FOR ANY
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR CONVECTION HAS ENDED. LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE VA
BORDER ARE ALSO BEGINNING TO LIFT INTO CU AND MIX OUT...FROM THE
TN VALLEY REGION AND FROM THE NORTHWEST. POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY... WITH REMAINING HOURLY GRIDS ALSO FRESHENED UP BASED
ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND SATELLITE TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 911 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

HOURLY POPS...AS WELL AS TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINTS WERE UPDATED
BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR TRENDS. A COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO WORK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ATTM. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY
REGION...WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION.

OVERALL...VERY LITTLE CHANGES WERE NEEDED ATTM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

CLOUDS WERE A BIT MORE EXTENSIVE THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED FOR THIS
MORNING...AND HAVE SLOWED THE CLEARING PROCESS SLIGHTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT WAS POSITIONED FROM NEAR KBNA TO
KCMH...AND WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST. IT WILL PASS THROUGH THE JKL
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. IT WILL ARRIVE AT AN UNFAVORABLE TIME
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT IT WILL NOT BE RULED OUT...AND A
20 PERCENT POP WAS USED. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND ALLOW FOR COOLER LOW TEMPS ON
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SOME VALLEYS PROBABLY FALLING INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT A TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE OVER OUR AREA THROUGH MONDAY KEEPING OUR
FORECAST DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY. MODELS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT IN HOW THEY
HANDLE THIS FRONT FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK AND
THIS LOWERS FORECASTER CONFIDENCE. WHILE THE GFS INDICATES A QUICK
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRY
WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE GEM AND ECMWF INDICATE A
STALLED FRONT TO OUR NORTH OR OVERHEAD WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A MODEL BLEND GIVES SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND THAT SEEMS PRUDENT GIVEN
THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMS
NEXT WEEK WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED WELL TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

CONDITIONS VARIED FROM LIFR TO VFR EARLY THIS MORNING....BUT WERE
MAINLY IFR AND MVFR. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR GENERALLY FROM NW TO
SE TODAY...WITH VFR EXPECTED JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. GOOD CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN LAST THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH JUST A BIT OF VALLEY FOG LATE TONIGHT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...HAL





000
FXUS63 KJKL 301535 AAC
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1135 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND TOWARD THE
CREST OF THE APPALACHIANS. DRIER AIR HAS BEGUN TO FILTER IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE OH VALLEY. WITH THE FRONT DEPARTING...THE THREAT FOR ANY
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR CONVECTION HAS ENDED. LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE VA
BORDER ARE ALSO BEGINNING TO LIFT INTO CU AND MIX OUT...FROM THE
TN VALLEY REGION AND FROM THE NORTHWEST. POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY... WITH REMAINING HOURLY GRIDS ALSO FRESHENED UP BASED
ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND SATELLITE TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 911 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

HOURLY POPS...AS WELL AS TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINTS WERE UPDATED
BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR TRENDS. A COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO WORK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ATTM. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY
REGION...WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION.

OVERALL...VERY LITTLE CHANGES WERE NEEDED ATTM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

CLOUDS WERE A BIT MORE EXTENSIVE THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED FOR THIS
MORNING...AND HAVE SLOWED THE CLEARING PROCESS SLIGHTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT WAS POSITIONED FROM NEAR KBNA TO
KCMH...AND WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST. IT WILL PASS THROUGH THE JKL
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. IT WILL ARRIVE AT AN UNFAVORABLE TIME
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT IT WILL NOT BE RULED OUT...AND A
20 PERCENT POP WAS USED. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND ALLOW FOR COOLER LOW TEMPS ON
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SOME VALLEYS PROBABLY FALLING INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN BROAD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE MAIN FEATURES
AND LONGWAVE PATTERN ALOFT DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CONTINENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INITIALLY THE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH...RUNNING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES...BUT A STRENGTHENING WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY IN NORTHWEST FLOW BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. THIS WAVE PASSES THROUGH
EAST KENTUCKY BY EARLY MONDAY...THOUGH ADDITIONAL BITS OF ENERGY
WILL TRAIL BEHIND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE MODEL SPREAD INCREASES
THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS MOVE THE CANADIAN
TROUGH TO THE EAST A BIT QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF. DESPITE THIS...
THOUGH...THE LATTER MODEL DOES BRING HIGHER HEIGHTS INTO KENTUCKY
FOR WEDNESDAY AS ITS HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW IS MORE SHALLOW THAN THE
OTHERS. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE BULK OF THE PERIOD AND
GREATER UNCERTAINTY LATER ON WILL FAVOR A GENERAL BLEND SOLUTION.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CONTINUED RESPITE FROM THE WORST
HUMIDITY OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS RUNNING INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE
THE HIGHER MOISTURE RETURNS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MOST OF THE CONVECTION AT BAY THROUGH SUNDAY
BEFORE THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER FRONT HELPS TO TRIGGER MORE IN THE
WAY OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL
NEARBY THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK...KEEPING A THREAT OF SHOWERS OR
STORMS IN THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CR GRID BLEND CAME IN REASONABLY WELL WITH THE BULK OF ANY
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE POPS AND SKY GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT THE
DIURNAL CYCLE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DID ADJUST THE LOWS A BIT EACH
NIGHT TO CAPTURE MINOR TO MODERATE TERRAIN EFFECTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

CONDITIONS VARIED FROM LIFR TO VFR EARLY THIS MORNING....BUT WERE
MAINLY IFR AND MVFR. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR GENERALLY FROM NW TO
SE TODAY...WITH VFR EXPECTED JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. GOOD CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN LAST THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH JUST A BIT OF VALLEY FOG LATE TONIGHT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...HAL




000
FXUS63 KJKL 301535 AAC
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1135 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND TOWARD THE
CREST OF THE APPALACHIANS. DRIER AIR HAS BEGUN TO FILTER IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE OH VALLEY. WITH THE FRONT DEPARTING...THE THREAT FOR ANY
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR CONVECTION HAS ENDED. LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE VA
BORDER ARE ALSO BEGINNING TO LIFT INTO CU AND MIX OUT...FROM THE
TN VALLEY REGION AND FROM THE NORTHWEST. POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY... WITH REMAINING HOURLY GRIDS ALSO FRESHENED UP BASED
ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND SATELLITE TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 911 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

HOURLY POPS...AS WELL AS TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINTS WERE UPDATED
BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR TRENDS. A COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO WORK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ATTM. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY
REGION...WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION.

OVERALL...VERY LITTLE CHANGES WERE NEEDED ATTM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

CLOUDS WERE A BIT MORE EXTENSIVE THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED FOR THIS
MORNING...AND HAVE SLOWED THE CLEARING PROCESS SLIGHTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT WAS POSITIONED FROM NEAR KBNA TO
KCMH...AND WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST. IT WILL PASS THROUGH THE JKL
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. IT WILL ARRIVE AT AN UNFAVORABLE TIME
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT IT WILL NOT BE RULED OUT...AND A
20 PERCENT POP WAS USED. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND ALLOW FOR COOLER LOW TEMPS ON
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SOME VALLEYS PROBABLY FALLING INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN BROAD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE MAIN FEATURES
AND LONGWAVE PATTERN ALOFT DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CONTINENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INITIALLY THE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH...RUNNING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES...BUT A STRENGTHENING WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY IN NORTHWEST FLOW BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. THIS WAVE PASSES THROUGH
EAST KENTUCKY BY EARLY MONDAY...THOUGH ADDITIONAL BITS OF ENERGY
WILL TRAIL BEHIND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE MODEL SPREAD INCREASES
THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS MOVE THE CANADIAN
TROUGH TO THE EAST A BIT QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF. DESPITE THIS...
THOUGH...THE LATTER MODEL DOES BRING HIGHER HEIGHTS INTO KENTUCKY
FOR WEDNESDAY AS ITS HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW IS MORE SHALLOW THAN THE
OTHERS. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE BULK OF THE PERIOD AND
GREATER UNCERTAINTY LATER ON WILL FAVOR A GENERAL BLEND SOLUTION.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CONTINUED RESPITE FROM THE WORST
HUMIDITY OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS RUNNING INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE
THE HIGHER MOISTURE RETURNS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MOST OF THE CONVECTION AT BAY THROUGH SUNDAY
BEFORE THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER FRONT HELPS TO TRIGGER MORE IN THE
WAY OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL
NEARBY THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK...KEEPING A THREAT OF SHOWERS OR
STORMS IN THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CR GRID BLEND CAME IN REASONABLY WELL WITH THE BULK OF ANY
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE POPS AND SKY GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT THE
DIURNAL CYCLE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DID ADJUST THE LOWS A BIT EACH
NIGHT TO CAPTURE MINOR TO MODERATE TERRAIN EFFECTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

CONDITIONS VARIED FROM LIFR TO VFR EARLY THIS MORNING....BUT WERE
MAINLY IFR AND MVFR. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR GENERALLY FROM NW TO
SE TODAY...WITH VFR EXPECTED JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. GOOD CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN LAST THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH JUST A BIT OF VALLEY FOG LATE TONIGHT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...HAL





000
FXUS63 KJKL 301311 AAB
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
911 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 911 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

HOURLY POPS...AS WELL AS TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINTS WERE UPDATED
BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR TRENDS. A COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO WORK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ATTM. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY
REGION...WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION.

OVERALL...VERY LITTLE CHANGES WERE NEEDED ATTM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

CLOUDS WERE A BIT MORE EXTENSIVE THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED FOR THIS
MORNING...AND HAVE SLOWED THE CLEARING PROCESS SLIGHTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT WAS POSITIONED FROM NEAR KBNA TO
KCMH...AND WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST. IT WILL PASS THROUGH THE JKL
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. IT WILL ARRIVE AT AN UNFAVORABLE TIME
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT IT WILL NOT BE RULED OUT...AND A
20 PERCENT POP WAS USED. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND ALLOW FOR COOLER LOW TEMPS ON
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SOME VALLEYS PROBABLY FALLING INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN BROAD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE MAIN FEATURES
AND LONGWAVE PATTERN ALOFT DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CONTINENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INITIALLY THE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH...RUNNING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES...BUT A STRENGTHENING WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY IN NORTHWEST FLOW BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. THIS WAVE PASSES THROUGH
EAST KENTUCKY BY EARLY MONDAY...THOUGH ADDITIONAL BITS OF ENERGY
WILL TRAIL BEHIND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE MODEL SPREAD INCREASES
THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS MOVE THE CANADIAN
TROUGH TO THE EAST A BIT QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF. DESPITE THIS...
THOUGH...THE LATTER MODEL DOES BRING HIGHER HEIGHTS INTO KENTUCKY
FOR WEDNESDAY AS ITS HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW IS MORE SHALLOW THAN THE
OTHERS. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE BULK OF THE PERIOD AND
GREATER UNCERTAINTY LATER ON WILL FAVOR A GENERAL BLEND SOLUTION.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CONTINUED RESPITE FROM THE WORST
HUMIDITY OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS RUNNING INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE
THE HIGHER MOISTURE RETURNS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MOST OF THE CONVECTION AT BAY THROUGH SUNDAY
BEFORE THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER FRONT HELPS TO TRIGGER MORE IN THE
WAY OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL
NEARBY THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK...KEEPING A THREAT OF SHOWERS OR
STORMS IN THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CR GRID BLEND CAME IN REASONABLY WELL WITH THE BULK OF ANY
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE POPS AND SKY GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT THE
DIURNAL CYCLE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DID ADJUST THE LOWS A BIT EACH
NIGHT TO CAPTURE MINOR TO MODERATE TERRAIN EFFECTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

CONDITIONS VARIED FROM LIFR TO VFR EARLY THIS MORNING....BUT WERE
MAINLY IFR AND MVFR. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR GENERALLY FROM NW TO
SE TODAY...WITH VFR EXPECTED JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. GOOD CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN LAST THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH JUST A BIT OF VALLEY FOG LATE TONIGHT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...HAL




000
FXUS63 KJKL 301311 AAB
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
911 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 911 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

HOURLY POPS...AS WELL AS TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINTS WERE UPDATED
BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR TRENDS. A COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO WORK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ATTM. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY
REGION...WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION.

OVERALL...VERY LITTLE CHANGES WERE NEEDED ATTM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

CLOUDS WERE A BIT MORE EXTENSIVE THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED FOR THIS
MORNING...AND HAVE SLOWED THE CLEARING PROCESS SLIGHTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT WAS POSITIONED FROM NEAR KBNA TO
KCMH...AND WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST. IT WILL PASS THROUGH THE JKL
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. IT WILL ARRIVE AT AN UNFAVORABLE TIME
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT IT WILL NOT BE RULED OUT...AND A
20 PERCENT POP WAS USED. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND ALLOW FOR COOLER LOW TEMPS ON
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SOME VALLEYS PROBABLY FALLING INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN BROAD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE MAIN FEATURES
AND LONGWAVE PATTERN ALOFT DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CONTINENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INITIALLY THE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH...RUNNING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES...BUT A STRENGTHENING WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY IN NORTHWEST FLOW BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. THIS WAVE PASSES THROUGH
EAST KENTUCKY BY EARLY MONDAY...THOUGH ADDITIONAL BITS OF ENERGY
WILL TRAIL BEHIND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE MODEL SPREAD INCREASES
THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS MOVE THE CANADIAN
TROUGH TO THE EAST A BIT QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF. DESPITE THIS...
THOUGH...THE LATTER MODEL DOES BRING HIGHER HEIGHTS INTO KENTUCKY
FOR WEDNESDAY AS ITS HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW IS MORE SHALLOW THAN THE
OTHERS. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE BULK OF THE PERIOD AND
GREATER UNCERTAINTY LATER ON WILL FAVOR A GENERAL BLEND SOLUTION.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CONTINUED RESPITE FROM THE WORST
HUMIDITY OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS RUNNING INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE
THE HIGHER MOISTURE RETURNS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MOST OF THE CONVECTION AT BAY THROUGH SUNDAY
BEFORE THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER FRONT HELPS TO TRIGGER MORE IN THE
WAY OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL
NEARBY THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK...KEEPING A THREAT OF SHOWERS OR
STORMS IN THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CR GRID BLEND CAME IN REASONABLY WELL WITH THE BULK OF ANY
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE POPS AND SKY GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT THE
DIURNAL CYCLE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DID ADJUST THE LOWS A BIT EACH
NIGHT TO CAPTURE MINOR TO MODERATE TERRAIN EFFECTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

CONDITIONS VARIED FROM LIFR TO VFR EARLY THIS MORNING....BUT WERE
MAINLY IFR AND MVFR. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR GENERALLY FROM NW TO
SE TODAY...WITH VFR EXPECTED JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. GOOD CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN LAST THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH JUST A BIT OF VALLEY FOG LATE TONIGHT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...HAL





000
FXUS63 KJKL 301311 AAB
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
911 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 911 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

HOURLY POPS...AS WELL AS TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINTS WERE UPDATED
BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR TRENDS. A COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO WORK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ATTM. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY
REGION...WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION.

OVERALL...VERY LITTLE CHANGES WERE NEEDED ATTM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

CLOUDS WERE A BIT MORE EXTENSIVE THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED FOR THIS
MORNING...AND HAVE SLOWED THE CLEARING PROCESS SLIGHTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT WAS POSITIONED FROM NEAR KBNA TO
KCMH...AND WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST. IT WILL PASS THROUGH THE JKL
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. IT WILL ARRIVE AT AN UNFAVORABLE TIME
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT IT WILL NOT BE RULED OUT...AND A
20 PERCENT POP WAS USED. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND ALLOW FOR COOLER LOW TEMPS ON
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SOME VALLEYS PROBABLY FALLING INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN BROAD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE MAIN FEATURES
AND LONGWAVE PATTERN ALOFT DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CONTINENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INITIALLY THE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH...RUNNING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES...BUT A STRENGTHENING WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY IN NORTHWEST FLOW BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. THIS WAVE PASSES THROUGH
EAST KENTUCKY BY EARLY MONDAY...THOUGH ADDITIONAL BITS OF ENERGY
WILL TRAIL BEHIND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE MODEL SPREAD INCREASES
THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS MOVE THE CANADIAN
TROUGH TO THE EAST A BIT QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF. DESPITE THIS...
THOUGH...THE LATTER MODEL DOES BRING HIGHER HEIGHTS INTO KENTUCKY
FOR WEDNESDAY AS ITS HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW IS MORE SHALLOW THAN THE
OTHERS. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE BULK OF THE PERIOD AND
GREATER UNCERTAINTY LATER ON WILL FAVOR A GENERAL BLEND SOLUTION.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CONTINUED RESPITE FROM THE WORST
HUMIDITY OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS RUNNING INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE
THE HIGHER MOISTURE RETURNS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MOST OF THE CONVECTION AT BAY THROUGH SUNDAY
BEFORE THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER FRONT HELPS TO TRIGGER MORE IN THE
WAY OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL
NEARBY THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK...KEEPING A THREAT OF SHOWERS OR
STORMS IN THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CR GRID BLEND CAME IN REASONABLY WELL WITH THE BULK OF ANY
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE POPS AND SKY GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT THE
DIURNAL CYCLE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DID ADJUST THE LOWS A BIT EACH
NIGHT TO CAPTURE MINOR TO MODERATE TERRAIN EFFECTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

CONDITIONS VARIED FROM LIFR TO VFR EARLY THIS MORNING....BUT WERE
MAINLY IFR AND MVFR. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR GENERALLY FROM NW TO
SE TODAY...WITH VFR EXPECTED JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. GOOD CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN LAST THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH JUST A BIT OF VALLEY FOG LATE TONIGHT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...HAL




000
FXUS63 KJKL 301311 AAB
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
911 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 911 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

HOURLY POPS...AS WELL AS TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINTS WERE UPDATED
BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR TRENDS. A COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO WORK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ATTM. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY
REGION...WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION.

OVERALL...VERY LITTLE CHANGES WERE NEEDED ATTM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

CLOUDS WERE A BIT MORE EXTENSIVE THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED FOR THIS
MORNING...AND HAVE SLOWED THE CLEARING PROCESS SLIGHTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT WAS POSITIONED FROM NEAR KBNA TO
KCMH...AND WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST. IT WILL PASS THROUGH THE JKL
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. IT WILL ARRIVE AT AN UNFAVORABLE TIME
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT IT WILL NOT BE RULED OUT...AND A
20 PERCENT POP WAS USED. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND ALLOW FOR COOLER LOW TEMPS ON
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SOME VALLEYS PROBABLY FALLING INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN BROAD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE MAIN FEATURES
AND LONGWAVE PATTERN ALOFT DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CONTINENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INITIALLY THE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH...RUNNING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES...BUT A STRENGTHENING WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY IN NORTHWEST FLOW BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. THIS WAVE PASSES THROUGH
EAST KENTUCKY BY EARLY MONDAY...THOUGH ADDITIONAL BITS OF ENERGY
WILL TRAIL BEHIND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE MODEL SPREAD INCREASES
THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS MOVE THE CANADIAN
TROUGH TO THE EAST A BIT QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF. DESPITE THIS...
THOUGH...THE LATTER MODEL DOES BRING HIGHER HEIGHTS INTO KENTUCKY
FOR WEDNESDAY AS ITS HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW IS MORE SHALLOW THAN THE
OTHERS. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE BULK OF THE PERIOD AND
GREATER UNCERTAINTY LATER ON WILL FAVOR A GENERAL BLEND SOLUTION.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CONTINUED RESPITE FROM THE WORST
HUMIDITY OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS RUNNING INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE
THE HIGHER MOISTURE RETURNS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MOST OF THE CONVECTION AT BAY THROUGH SUNDAY
BEFORE THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER FRONT HELPS TO TRIGGER MORE IN THE
WAY OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL
NEARBY THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK...KEEPING A THREAT OF SHOWERS OR
STORMS IN THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CR GRID BLEND CAME IN REASONABLY WELL WITH THE BULK OF ANY
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE POPS AND SKY GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT THE
DIURNAL CYCLE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DID ADJUST THE LOWS A BIT EACH
NIGHT TO CAPTURE MINOR TO MODERATE TERRAIN EFFECTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

CONDITIONS VARIED FROM LIFR TO VFR EARLY THIS MORNING....BUT WERE
MAINLY IFR AND MVFR. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR GENERALLY FROM NW TO
SE TODAY...WITH VFR EXPECTED JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. GOOD CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN LAST THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH JUST A BIT OF VALLEY FOG LATE TONIGHT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...HAL





000
FXUS63 KJKL 301122
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
722 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

CLOUDS WERE A BIT MORE EXTENSIVE THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED FOR THIS
MORNING...AND HAVE SLOWED THE CLEARING PROCESS SLIGHTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT WAS POSITIONED FROM NEAR KBNA TO
KCMH...AND WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST. IT WILL PASS THROUGH THE JKL
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. IT WILL ARRIVE AT AN UNFAVORABLE TIME
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT IT WILL NOT BE RULED OUT...AND A
20 PERCENT POP WAS USED. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND ALLOW FOR COOLER LOW TEMPS ON
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SOME VALLEYS PROBABLY FALLING INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN BROAD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE MAIN FEATURES
AND LONGWAVE PATTERN ALOFT DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CONTINENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INITIALLY THE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH...RUNNING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES...BUT A STRENGTHENING WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY IN NORTHWEST FLOW BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. THIS WAVE PASSES THROUGH
EAST KENTUCKY BY EARLY MONDAY...THOUGH ADDITIONAL BITS OF ENERGY
WILL TRAIL BEHIND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE MODEL SPREAD INCREASES
THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS MOVE THE CANADIAN
TROUGH TO THE EAST A BIT QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF. DESPITE THIS...
THOUGH...THE LATTER MODEL DOES BRING HIGHER HEIGHTS INTO KENTUCKY
FOR WEDNESDAY AS ITS HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW IS MORE SHALLOW THAN THE
OTHERS. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE BULK OF THE PERIOD AND
GREATER UNCERTAINTY LATER ON WILL FAVOR A GENERAL BLEND SOLUTION.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CONTINUED RESPITE FROM THE WORST
HUMIDITY OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS RUNNING INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE
THE HIGHER MOISTURE RETURNS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MOST OF THE CONVECTION AT BAY THROUGH SUNDAY
BEFORE THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER FRONT HELPS TO TRIGGER MORE IN THE
WAY OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL
NEARBY THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK...KEEPING A THREAT OF SHOWERS OR
STORMS IN THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CR GRID BLEND CAME IN REASONABLY WELL WITH THE BULK OF ANY
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE POPS AND SKY GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT THE
DIURNAL CYCLE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DID ADJUST THE LOWS A BIT EACH
NIGHT TO CAPTURE MINOR TO MODERATE TERRAIN EFFECTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

CONDITIONS VARIED FROM LIFR TO VFR EARLY THIS MORNING....BUT WERE
MAINLY IFR AND MVFR. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR GENERALLY FROM NW TO
SE TODAY...WITH VFR EXPECTED JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. GOOD CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN LAST THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH JUST A BIT OF VALLEY FOG LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...HAL





000
FXUS63 KJKL 301122
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
722 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

CLOUDS WERE A BIT MORE EXTENSIVE THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED FOR THIS
MORNING...AND HAVE SLOWED THE CLEARING PROCESS SLIGHTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT WAS POSITIONED FROM NEAR KBNA TO
KCMH...AND WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST. IT WILL PASS THROUGH THE JKL
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. IT WILL ARRIVE AT AN UNFAVORABLE TIME
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT IT WILL NOT BE RULED OUT...AND A
20 PERCENT POP WAS USED. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND ALLOW FOR COOLER LOW TEMPS ON
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SOME VALLEYS PROBABLY FALLING INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN BROAD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE MAIN FEATURES
AND LONGWAVE PATTERN ALOFT DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CONTINENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INITIALLY THE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH...RUNNING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES...BUT A STRENGTHENING WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY IN NORTHWEST FLOW BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. THIS WAVE PASSES THROUGH
EAST KENTUCKY BY EARLY MONDAY...THOUGH ADDITIONAL BITS OF ENERGY
WILL TRAIL BEHIND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE MODEL SPREAD INCREASES
THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS MOVE THE CANADIAN
TROUGH TO THE EAST A BIT QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF. DESPITE THIS...
THOUGH...THE LATTER MODEL DOES BRING HIGHER HEIGHTS INTO KENTUCKY
FOR WEDNESDAY AS ITS HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW IS MORE SHALLOW THAN THE
OTHERS. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE BULK OF THE PERIOD AND
GREATER UNCERTAINTY LATER ON WILL FAVOR A GENERAL BLEND SOLUTION.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CONTINUED RESPITE FROM THE WORST
HUMIDITY OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS RUNNING INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE
THE HIGHER MOISTURE RETURNS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MOST OF THE CONVECTION AT BAY THROUGH SUNDAY
BEFORE THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER FRONT HELPS TO TRIGGER MORE IN THE
WAY OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL
NEARBY THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK...KEEPING A THREAT OF SHOWERS OR
STORMS IN THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CR GRID BLEND CAME IN REASONABLY WELL WITH THE BULK OF ANY
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE POPS AND SKY GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT THE
DIURNAL CYCLE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DID ADJUST THE LOWS A BIT EACH
NIGHT TO CAPTURE MINOR TO MODERATE TERRAIN EFFECTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

CONDITIONS VARIED FROM LIFR TO VFR EARLY THIS MORNING....BUT WERE
MAINLY IFR AND MVFR. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR GENERALLY FROM NW TO
SE TODAY...WITH VFR EXPECTED JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. GOOD CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN LAST THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH JUST A BIT OF VALLEY FOG LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...HAL




000
FXUS63 KJKL 301122
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
722 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

CLOUDS WERE A BIT MORE EXTENSIVE THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED FOR THIS
MORNING...AND HAVE SLOWED THE CLEARING PROCESS SLIGHTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT WAS POSITIONED FROM NEAR KBNA TO
KCMH...AND WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST. IT WILL PASS THROUGH THE JKL
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. IT WILL ARRIVE AT AN UNFAVORABLE TIME
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT IT WILL NOT BE RULED OUT...AND A
20 PERCENT POP WAS USED. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND ALLOW FOR COOLER LOW TEMPS ON
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SOME VALLEYS PROBABLY FALLING INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN BROAD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE MAIN FEATURES
AND LONGWAVE PATTERN ALOFT DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CONTINENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INITIALLY THE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH...RUNNING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES...BUT A STRENGTHENING WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY IN NORTHWEST FLOW BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. THIS WAVE PASSES THROUGH
EAST KENTUCKY BY EARLY MONDAY...THOUGH ADDITIONAL BITS OF ENERGY
WILL TRAIL BEHIND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE MODEL SPREAD INCREASES
THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS MOVE THE CANADIAN
TROUGH TO THE EAST A BIT QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF. DESPITE THIS...
THOUGH...THE LATTER MODEL DOES BRING HIGHER HEIGHTS INTO KENTUCKY
FOR WEDNESDAY AS ITS HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW IS MORE SHALLOW THAN THE
OTHERS. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE BULK OF THE PERIOD AND
GREATER UNCERTAINTY LATER ON WILL FAVOR A GENERAL BLEND SOLUTION.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CONTINUED RESPITE FROM THE WORST
HUMIDITY OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS RUNNING INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE
THE HIGHER MOISTURE RETURNS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MOST OF THE CONVECTION AT BAY THROUGH SUNDAY
BEFORE THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER FRONT HELPS TO TRIGGER MORE IN THE
WAY OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL
NEARBY THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK...KEEPING A THREAT OF SHOWERS OR
STORMS IN THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CR GRID BLEND CAME IN REASONABLY WELL WITH THE BULK OF ANY
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE POPS AND SKY GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT THE
DIURNAL CYCLE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DID ADJUST THE LOWS A BIT EACH
NIGHT TO CAPTURE MINOR TO MODERATE TERRAIN EFFECTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

CONDITIONS VARIED FROM LIFR TO VFR EARLY THIS MORNING....BUT WERE
MAINLY IFR AND MVFR. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR GENERALLY FROM NW TO
SE TODAY...WITH VFR EXPECTED JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. GOOD CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN LAST THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH JUST A BIT OF VALLEY FOG LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...HAL




000
FXUS63 KJKL 301122
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
722 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

CLOUDS WERE A BIT MORE EXTENSIVE THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED FOR THIS
MORNING...AND HAVE SLOWED THE CLEARING PROCESS SLIGHTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT WAS POSITIONED FROM NEAR KBNA TO
KCMH...AND WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST. IT WILL PASS THROUGH THE JKL
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. IT WILL ARRIVE AT AN UNFAVORABLE TIME
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT IT WILL NOT BE RULED OUT...AND A
20 PERCENT POP WAS USED. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND ALLOW FOR COOLER LOW TEMPS ON
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SOME VALLEYS PROBABLY FALLING INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN BROAD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE MAIN FEATURES
AND LONGWAVE PATTERN ALOFT DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CONTINENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INITIALLY THE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH...RUNNING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES...BUT A STRENGTHENING WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY IN NORTHWEST FLOW BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. THIS WAVE PASSES THROUGH
EAST KENTUCKY BY EARLY MONDAY...THOUGH ADDITIONAL BITS OF ENERGY
WILL TRAIL BEHIND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE MODEL SPREAD INCREASES
THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS MOVE THE CANADIAN
TROUGH TO THE EAST A BIT QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF. DESPITE THIS...
THOUGH...THE LATTER MODEL DOES BRING HIGHER HEIGHTS INTO KENTUCKY
FOR WEDNESDAY AS ITS HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW IS MORE SHALLOW THAN THE
OTHERS. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE BULK OF THE PERIOD AND
GREATER UNCERTAINTY LATER ON WILL FAVOR A GENERAL BLEND SOLUTION.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CONTINUED RESPITE FROM THE WORST
HUMIDITY OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS RUNNING INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE
THE HIGHER MOISTURE RETURNS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MOST OF THE CONVECTION AT BAY THROUGH SUNDAY
BEFORE THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER FRONT HELPS TO TRIGGER MORE IN THE
WAY OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL
NEARBY THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK...KEEPING A THREAT OF SHOWERS OR
STORMS IN THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CR GRID BLEND CAME IN REASONABLY WELL WITH THE BULK OF ANY
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE POPS AND SKY GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT THE
DIURNAL CYCLE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DID ADJUST THE LOWS A BIT EACH
NIGHT TO CAPTURE MINOR TO MODERATE TERRAIN EFFECTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

CONDITIONS VARIED FROM LIFR TO VFR EARLY THIS MORNING....BUT WERE
MAINLY IFR AND MVFR. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR GENERALLY FROM NW TO
SE TODAY...WITH VFR EXPECTED JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. GOOD CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN LAST THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH JUST A BIT OF VALLEY FOG LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...HAL





000
FXUS63 KJKL 300757
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
357 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT WAS POSITIONED FROM NEAR KBNA TO
KCMH...AND WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST. IT WILL PASS THROUGH THE JKL
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. IT WILL ARRIVE AT AN UNFAVORABLE TIME
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT IT WILL NOT BE RULED OUT...AND A
20 PERCENT POP WAS USED. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND ALLOW FOR COOLER LOW TEMPS ON
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SOME VALLEYS PROBABLY FALLING INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN BROAD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE MAIN FEATURES
AND LONGWAVE PATTERN ALOFT DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CONTINENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INITIALLY THE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH...RUNNING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES...BUT A STRENGTHENING WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY IN NORTHWEST FLOW BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. THIS WAVE PASSES THROUGH
EAST KENTUCKY BY EARLY MONDAY...THOUGH ADDITIONAL BITS OF ENERGY
WILL TRAIL BEHIND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE MODEL SPREAD INCREASES
THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS MOVE THE CANADIAN
TROUGH TO THE EAST A BIT QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF. DESPITE THIS...
THOUGH...THE LATTER MODEL DOES BRING HIGHER HEIGHTS INTO KENTUCKY
FOR WEDNESDAY AS ITS HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW IS MORE SHALLOW THAN THE
OTHERS. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE BULK OF THE PERIOD AND
GREATER UNCERTAINTY LATER ON WILL FAVOR A GENERAL BLEND SOLUTION.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CONTINUED RESPITE FROM THE WORST
HUMIDITY OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS RUNNING INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE
THE HIGHER MOISTURE RETURNS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MOST OF THE CONVECTION AT BAY THROUGH SUNDAY
BEFORE THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER FRONT HELPS TO TRIGGER MORE IN THE
WAY OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL
NEARBY THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK...KEEPING A THREAT OF SHOWERS OR
STORMS IN THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CR GRID BLEND CAME IN REASONABLY WELL WITH THE BULK OF ANY
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE POPS AND SKY GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT THE
DIURNAL CYCLE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DID ADJUST THE LOWS A BIT EACH
NIGHT TO CAPTURE MINOR TO MODERATE TERRAIN EFFECTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

CONDITIONS WERE MOSTLY VFR AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. A
DETERIORATION TO IFR AND MVFR IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. IMPROVEMENT
BACK TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR ON THURSDAY MORNING. A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE UP UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
FROM NW TO SE. THIS WILL HAPPEN BETWEEN ABOUT 09Z AND 16Z.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...HAL




000
FXUS63 KJKL 300757
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
357 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT WAS POSITIONED FROM NEAR KBNA TO
KCMH...AND WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST. IT WILL PASS THROUGH THE JKL
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. IT WILL ARRIVE AT AN UNFAVORABLE TIME
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT IT WILL NOT BE RULED OUT...AND A
20 PERCENT POP WAS USED. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND ALLOW FOR COOLER LOW TEMPS ON
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SOME VALLEYS PROBABLY FALLING INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN BROAD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE MAIN FEATURES
AND LONGWAVE PATTERN ALOFT DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CONTINENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INITIALLY THE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH...RUNNING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES...BUT A STRENGTHENING WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY IN NORTHWEST FLOW BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. THIS WAVE PASSES THROUGH
EAST KENTUCKY BY EARLY MONDAY...THOUGH ADDITIONAL BITS OF ENERGY
WILL TRAIL BEHIND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE MODEL SPREAD INCREASES
THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS MOVE THE CANADIAN
TROUGH TO THE EAST A BIT QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF. DESPITE THIS...
THOUGH...THE LATTER MODEL DOES BRING HIGHER HEIGHTS INTO KENTUCKY
FOR WEDNESDAY AS ITS HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW IS MORE SHALLOW THAN THE
OTHERS. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE BULK OF THE PERIOD AND
GREATER UNCERTAINTY LATER ON WILL FAVOR A GENERAL BLEND SOLUTION.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CONTINUED RESPITE FROM THE WORST
HUMIDITY OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS RUNNING INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE
THE HIGHER MOISTURE RETURNS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MOST OF THE CONVECTION AT BAY THROUGH SUNDAY
BEFORE THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER FRONT HELPS TO TRIGGER MORE IN THE
WAY OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL
NEARBY THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK...KEEPING A THREAT OF SHOWERS OR
STORMS IN THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CR GRID BLEND CAME IN REASONABLY WELL WITH THE BULK OF ANY
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE POPS AND SKY GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT THE
DIURNAL CYCLE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DID ADJUST THE LOWS A BIT EACH
NIGHT TO CAPTURE MINOR TO MODERATE TERRAIN EFFECTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

CONDITIONS WERE MOSTLY VFR AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. A
DETERIORATION TO IFR AND MVFR IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. IMPROVEMENT
BACK TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR ON THURSDAY MORNING. A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE UP UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
FROM NW TO SE. THIS WILL HAPPEN BETWEEN ABOUT 09Z AND 16Z.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...HAL





000
FXUS63 KJKL 300643
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
243 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 243 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

COLD FRONT WAS POSITIONED FROM NEAR KBNA TO NEAR KDAY. CONVECTION
HAS ALMOST DIED OUT OVER THE LOCAL AREA...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT
SOMETHING POPPING UP YET AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO
20 PERCENT...AND THEN DROPPING BELOW THE THRESHOLD FOR THE MENTION
OF PRECIP AFTER THE FRONT PASSES SOUTHEAST IN THE MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1020 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINE OF STORMS HAS CONTINUED TO
CONSOLIDATE TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA. ONLY A FEW OF OUR
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WILL SEE LIKELY RAINS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
THE REMNANT STRATIFORM RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY IS NOT
MOVING MUCH...AND WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN...MAINLY IN PLACE. THE
LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAS GENERALLY CAUGHT ON TO THE ONGOING
CONVECTIVE TRENDS. AS SUCH...IT APPEARS THAT THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF ACTIVITY UNTIL THE ACTUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA DEEPER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHEN A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR. WILL THEREFORE HANG ONTO
SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS. ALSO ADJUSTED THE LOWS UP A TOUCH...AS THE
PUSH BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT VERY STRONG. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING SOME UPPER 60 DEGREE READINGS LOOKS TO BE ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-64. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 813 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE LATEST RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A CONVECTIVE LINE ACROSS CENTRAL
AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. NEW CELLS HAD BEEN MORE LIVELY A BIT FURTHER
NORTHEAST EARLIER...BUT SOME PRECURSORY STORMS TAPPED INTO THE
BETTER AVAILABLE AIR MASS...AND NOW THERE IS GENERALLY A WEAKENING
TREND ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE LINE...WITH BETTER COLD POOL AND
ASSOCIATED NEW DEVELOPMENT ALIGNING MORE TOWARDS THE SOUTH...WHERE
BETTER INSTABILITY REMAINS. STILL...THINK THAT SOME DEBRIS CELLS
WILL MAKE IT INTO THE WEST IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS...AND HAVE
UPPED THE POPS TO HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. AS WE
LOSE HEATING...EXPECT AN OVERALL GRADUAL DIMINISHMENT...HOWEVER
WILL STILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON HEAVY RAINERS...GIVEN THE HIGH
PWATS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

AS OF MID AFTERNOON A MID LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION...WITH A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVER
NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO AND THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH SOUTH INTO THE MS
VALLEY REGION. AT THE SFC...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED
OVER ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
AND THEN SOUTHWEST INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG OR IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT OVER OH
AND IN SOUTHWEST INTO WESTERN KY. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED NEAR A MOISTURE GRADIENT EVIDENT IN PW FROM NORTHERN KY
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL KY. THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN GENERALLY SLOW
MOVING WITH HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. AREA WIDE...A WARM AND MOIST
AIR MASS IS IN PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK TO HUDSON BAY WITH THE
TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND MID
AND UPPER OH VALLEY REGION TONIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE AND AMPLIFY AND BECOME
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES OR FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS
WILL PUT THE REGION IN NW FLOW ALOFT LATE IN THE PERIOD. AT THE
SFC...THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT OR
EARLY ON THURSDAY. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND USHER IN SLIGHTLY COLDER...BUT MORE
NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.

RATHER MEAGER MID LEVEL FORCING AND NON OPTIMAL TIMING OF THE
FROPA DURING THE LATE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD LIMIT
CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THERE SHOULD BE A PEAK IN COVERAGE
OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS OR SO...AND THEN MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION
WITH A POSSIBLE BROKEN LINE OR LINE SEGMENTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WITH RELATIVELY
SLOW STORM MOTIONS EXPECTED DUE TO WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND A MOIST
AIR MASS IN PLACE...ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES AND OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING SIMILAR TO A GUST OBSERVED OVER
CENTRAL KY EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.

A SHOWER OR POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM COULD LINGER EARLY ON
THU...OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE VA BORDER.
OTHERWISE... AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN SKIES
SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY IN MOST LOCATIONS ON THU AFTERNOON.
WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD SET
THE STAGE FOR VALLEY FOG FORMATION LATE IN THE PERIOD. ENOUGH
DRIER AIR SHOULD WORK IN FOR SOME OF THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS
ALONG...OR NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY COULD TOUCH THE UPPER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
TAKES CONTROL OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION
FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S...BUT DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S WILL MAKE
THOSE READINGS FEEL MUCH MORE PLEASANT THAN THEY HAVE RECENTLY.

A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING THE PRECIP FALLING
APART BEFORE IT REACHES THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO
THE DRY AIR/RIDGING AT THE SURFACE. THERE IS SOME MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND WEAK ENERGY WITH THE FRONT AS IT PASSES TO OUR NORTH
SO HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES. BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ON SATURDAY FOR MOST AREAS.

SHOWER CHANCES RETURN TO THE REGION BY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE. MODELS INDICATE THAT SEVERAL UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BRINGING INCREASED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
TEMPERATURES (AND HUMIDITY) WILL INCREASE BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH HEAT INDICES LIKELY SURPASSING THE
90 DEGREE MARK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

CONDITIONS WERE MOSTLY VFR AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. A
DETERIORATION TO IFR AND MVFR IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. IMPROVEMENT
BACK TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR ON THURSDAY MORNING. A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE UP UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
FROM NW TO SE. THIS WILL HAPPEN BETWEEN ABOUT 09Z AND 16Z.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...HAL




000
FXUS63 KJKL 300643
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
243 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 243 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

COLD FRONT WAS POSITIONED FROM NEAR KBNA TO NEAR KDAY. CONVECTION
HAS ALMOST DIED OUT OVER THE LOCAL AREA...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT
SOMETHING POPPING UP YET AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO
20 PERCENT...AND THEN DROPPING BELOW THE THRESHOLD FOR THE MENTION
OF PRECIP AFTER THE FRONT PASSES SOUTHEAST IN THE MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1020 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINE OF STORMS HAS CONTINUED TO
CONSOLIDATE TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA. ONLY A FEW OF OUR
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WILL SEE LIKELY RAINS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
THE REMNANT STRATIFORM RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY IS NOT
MOVING MUCH...AND WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN...MAINLY IN PLACE. THE
LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAS GENERALLY CAUGHT ON TO THE ONGOING
CONVECTIVE TRENDS. AS SUCH...IT APPEARS THAT THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF ACTIVITY UNTIL THE ACTUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA DEEPER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHEN A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR. WILL THEREFORE HANG ONTO
SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS. ALSO ADJUSTED THE LOWS UP A TOUCH...AS THE
PUSH BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT VERY STRONG. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING SOME UPPER 60 DEGREE READINGS LOOKS TO BE ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-64. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 813 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE LATEST RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A CONVECTIVE LINE ACROSS CENTRAL
AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. NEW CELLS HAD BEEN MORE LIVELY A BIT FURTHER
NORTHEAST EARLIER...BUT SOME PRECURSORY STORMS TAPPED INTO THE
BETTER AVAILABLE AIR MASS...AND NOW THERE IS GENERALLY A WEAKENING
TREND ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE LINE...WITH BETTER COLD POOL AND
ASSOCIATED NEW DEVELOPMENT ALIGNING MORE TOWARDS THE SOUTH...WHERE
BETTER INSTABILITY REMAINS. STILL...THINK THAT SOME DEBRIS CELLS
WILL MAKE IT INTO THE WEST IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS...AND HAVE
UPPED THE POPS TO HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. AS WE
LOSE HEATING...EXPECT AN OVERALL GRADUAL DIMINISHMENT...HOWEVER
WILL STILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON HEAVY RAINERS...GIVEN THE HIGH
PWATS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

AS OF MID AFTERNOON A MID LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION...WITH A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVER
NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO AND THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH SOUTH INTO THE MS
VALLEY REGION. AT THE SFC...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED
OVER ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
AND THEN SOUTHWEST INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG OR IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT OVER OH
AND IN SOUTHWEST INTO WESTERN KY. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED NEAR A MOISTURE GRADIENT EVIDENT IN PW FROM NORTHERN KY
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL KY. THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN GENERALLY SLOW
MOVING WITH HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. AREA WIDE...A WARM AND MOIST
AIR MASS IS IN PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK TO HUDSON BAY WITH THE
TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND MID
AND UPPER OH VALLEY REGION TONIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE AND AMPLIFY AND BECOME
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES OR FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS
WILL PUT THE REGION IN NW FLOW ALOFT LATE IN THE PERIOD. AT THE
SFC...THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT OR
EARLY ON THURSDAY. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND USHER IN SLIGHTLY COLDER...BUT MORE
NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.

RATHER MEAGER MID LEVEL FORCING AND NON OPTIMAL TIMING OF THE
FROPA DURING THE LATE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD LIMIT
CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THERE SHOULD BE A PEAK IN COVERAGE
OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS OR SO...AND THEN MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION
WITH A POSSIBLE BROKEN LINE OR LINE SEGMENTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WITH RELATIVELY
SLOW STORM MOTIONS EXPECTED DUE TO WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND A MOIST
AIR MASS IN PLACE...ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES AND OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING SIMILAR TO A GUST OBSERVED OVER
CENTRAL KY EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.

A SHOWER OR POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM COULD LINGER EARLY ON
THU...OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE VA BORDER.
OTHERWISE... AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN SKIES
SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY IN MOST LOCATIONS ON THU AFTERNOON.
WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD SET
THE STAGE FOR VALLEY FOG FORMATION LATE IN THE PERIOD. ENOUGH
DRIER AIR SHOULD WORK IN FOR SOME OF THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS
ALONG...OR NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY COULD TOUCH THE UPPER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
TAKES CONTROL OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION
FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S...BUT DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S WILL MAKE
THOSE READINGS FEEL MUCH MORE PLEASANT THAN THEY HAVE RECENTLY.

A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING THE PRECIP FALLING
APART BEFORE IT REACHES THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO
THE DRY AIR/RIDGING AT THE SURFACE. THERE IS SOME MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND WEAK ENERGY WITH THE FRONT AS IT PASSES TO OUR NORTH
SO HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES. BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ON SATURDAY FOR MOST AREAS.

SHOWER CHANCES RETURN TO THE REGION BY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE. MODELS INDICATE THAT SEVERAL UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BRINGING INCREASED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
TEMPERATURES (AND HUMIDITY) WILL INCREASE BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH HEAT INDICES LIKELY SURPASSING THE
90 DEGREE MARK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

CONDITIONS WERE MOSTLY VFR AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. A
DETERIORATION TO IFR AND MVFR IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. IMPROVEMENT
BACK TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR ON THURSDAY MORNING. A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE UP UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
FROM NW TO SE. THIS WILL HAPPEN BETWEEN ABOUT 09Z AND 16Z.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...HAL





000
FXUS63 KJKL 300221 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1021 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINE OF STORMS HAS CONTINUED TO
CONSOLIDATE TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA. ONLY A FEW OF OUR
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WILL SEE LIKELY RAINS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
THE REMNANT STRATIFORM RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY IS NOT
MOVING MUCH...AND WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN...MAINLY IN PLACE. THE
LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAS GENERALLY CAUGHT ON TO THE ONGOING
CONVECTIVE TRENDS. AS SUCH...IT APPEARS THAT THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF ACTIVITY UNTIL THE ACTUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA DEEPER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHEN A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR. WILL THEREFORE HANG ONTO
SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS. ALSO ADJUSTED THE LOWS UP A TOUCH...AS THE
PUSH BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT VERY STRONG. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING SOME UPPER 60 DEGREE READINGS LOOKS TO BE ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-64. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 813 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE LATEST RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A CONVECTIVE LINE ACROSS CENTRAL
AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. NEW CELLS HAD BEEN MORE LIVELY A BIT FURTHER
NORTHEAST EARLIER...BUT SOME PRECURSORY STORMS TAPPED INTO THE
BETTER AVAILABLE AIR MASS...AND NOW THERE IS GENERALLY A WEAKENING
TREND ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE LINE...WITH BETTER COLD POOL AND
ASSOCIATED NEW DEVELOPMENT ALIGNING MORE TOWARDS THE SOUTH...WHERE
BETTER INSTABILITY REMAINS. STILL...THINK THAT SOME DEBRIS CELLS
WILL MAKE IT INTO THE WEST IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS...AND HAVE
UPPED THE POPS TO HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. AS WE
LOSE HEATING...EXPECT AN OVERALL GRADUAL DIMINISHMENT...HOWEVER
WILL STILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON HEAVY RAINERS...GIVEN THE HIGH
PWATS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

AS OF MID AFTERNOON A MID LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION...WITH A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVER
NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO AND THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH SOUTH INTO THE MS
VALLEY REGION. AT THE SFC...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED
OVER ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
AND THEN SOUTHWEST INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG OR IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT OVER OH
AND IN SOUTHWEST INTO WESTERN KY. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED NEAR A MOISTURE GRADIENT EVIDENT IN PW FROM NORTHERN KY
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL KY. THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN GENERALLY SLOW
MOVING WITH HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. AREAWIDE...A WARM AND MOIST
AIRMASS IS IN PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK TO HUDSON BAY WITH THE
TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND MID
AND UPPER OH VALLEY REGION TONIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE AND AMPLIFY AND BECOME
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES OR FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS
WILL PUT THE REGION IN NW FLOW ALOFT LATE IN THE PERIOD. AT THE
SFC...THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT OR
EARLY ON THURSDAY. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND USHER IN SLIGHTLY COLDER...BUT MORE
NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.

RATHER MEAGER MID LEVEL FORCING AND NON OPTIMAL TIMING OF THE
FROPA DURING THE LATE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD LIMIT
CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THERE SHOULD BE A PEAK IN COVERAGE
OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS OR SO...AND THEN MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION
WITH A POSSIBLE BROKEN LINE OR LINE SEGMENTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WITH RELATIVELY
SLOW STORM MOTIONS EXPECTED DUE TO WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND A MOIST
AIRMASS IN PLACE...ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES AND OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING SIMILAR TO A GUST OBSERVED OVER
CENTRAL KY EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.

A SHOWER OR POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM COULD LINGER EARLY ON
THU...OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE VA BORDER.
OTHERWISE... AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN SKIES
SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY IN MOST LOCATIONS ON THU AFTERNOON.
WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD SET
THE STAGE FOR VALLEY FOG FORMATION LATE IN THE PERIOD. ENOUGH
DRIER AIR SHOULD WORK IN FOR SOME OF THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS
ALONG...OR NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY COULD TOUCH THE UPPER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
TAKES CONTROL OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION
FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S...BUT DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S WILL MAKE
THOSE READINGS FEEL MUCH MORE PLEASANT THAN THEY HAVE RECENTLY.

A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING THE PRECIP FALLING
APART BEFORE IT REACHES THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO
THE DRY AIR/RIDGING AT THE SURFACE. THERE IS SOME MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND WEAK ENERGY WITH THE FRONT AS IT PASSES TO OUR NORTH
SO HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES. BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ON SATURDAY FOR MOST AREAS.

SHOWER CHANCES RETURN TO THE REGION BY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE. MODELS INDICATE THAT SEVERAL UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BRINGING INCREASED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
TEMPERATURES (AND HUMIDITY) WILL INCREASE BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH HEAT INDICES LIKELY SURPASSING THE
90 DEGREE MARK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 813 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

CONVECTIVE LINE WILL GRADUALLY MAKE IT IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE
SYM...LOZ AND SME SEEING THE BEST CHANCE OF SUSTAINED CONVECTION
AND MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 01 AND 02Z...WITH SOME TEMPORARY IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT SME AND LOZ BETWEEN 02 AND 03Z. HAVE
ALLOWED MORE TEMPORARY TS AND MVFR CONDITIONS AT JKL...WITH A
GENERAL VCTS AT SJS...WHERE THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY WHETHER MORE
ORGANIZED STORMS CAN MAKE IT THAT FAR EAST. A COLD FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO THE NORTHWEST. MVFR STRATOCU AND A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE DISSIPATING THEREAFTER WITH A
RETURN TO VFR.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN




000
FXUS63 KJKL 300221 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1021 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINE OF STORMS HAS CONTINUED TO
CONSOLIDATE TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA. ONLY A FEW OF OUR
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WILL SEE LIKELY RAINS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
THE REMNANT STRATIFORM RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY IS NOT
MOVING MUCH...AND WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN...MAINLY IN PLACE. THE
LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAS GENERALLY CAUGHT ON TO THE ONGOING
CONVECTIVE TRENDS. AS SUCH...IT APPEARS THAT THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF ACTIVITY UNTIL THE ACTUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA DEEPER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHEN A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR. WILL THEREFORE HANG ONTO
SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS. ALSO ADJUSTED THE LOWS UP A TOUCH...AS THE
PUSH BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT VERY STRONG. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING SOME UPPER 60 DEGREE READINGS LOOKS TO BE ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-64. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 813 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE LATEST RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A CONVECTIVE LINE ACROSS CENTRAL
AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. NEW CELLS HAD BEEN MORE LIVELY A BIT FURTHER
NORTHEAST EARLIER...BUT SOME PRECURSORY STORMS TAPPED INTO THE
BETTER AVAILABLE AIR MASS...AND NOW THERE IS GENERALLY A WEAKENING
TREND ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE LINE...WITH BETTER COLD POOL AND
ASSOCIATED NEW DEVELOPMENT ALIGNING MORE TOWARDS THE SOUTH...WHERE
BETTER INSTABILITY REMAINS. STILL...THINK THAT SOME DEBRIS CELLS
WILL MAKE IT INTO THE WEST IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS...AND HAVE
UPPED THE POPS TO HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. AS WE
LOSE HEATING...EXPECT AN OVERALL GRADUAL DIMINISHMENT...HOWEVER
WILL STILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON HEAVY RAINERS...GIVEN THE HIGH
PWATS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

AS OF MID AFTERNOON A MID LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION...WITH A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVER
NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO AND THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH SOUTH INTO THE MS
VALLEY REGION. AT THE SFC...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED
OVER ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
AND THEN SOUTHWEST INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG OR IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT OVER OH
AND IN SOUTHWEST INTO WESTERN KY. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED NEAR A MOISTURE GRADIENT EVIDENT IN PW FROM NORTHERN KY
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL KY. THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN GENERALLY SLOW
MOVING WITH HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. AREAWIDE...A WARM AND MOIST
AIRMASS IS IN PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK TO HUDSON BAY WITH THE
TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND MID
AND UPPER OH VALLEY REGION TONIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE AND AMPLIFY AND BECOME
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES OR FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS
WILL PUT THE REGION IN NW FLOW ALOFT LATE IN THE PERIOD. AT THE
SFC...THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT OR
EARLY ON THURSDAY. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND USHER IN SLIGHTLY COLDER...BUT MORE
NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.

RATHER MEAGER MID LEVEL FORCING AND NON OPTIMAL TIMING OF THE
FROPA DURING THE LATE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD LIMIT
CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THERE SHOULD BE A PEAK IN COVERAGE
OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS OR SO...AND THEN MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION
WITH A POSSIBLE BROKEN LINE OR LINE SEGMENTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WITH RELATIVELY
SLOW STORM MOTIONS EXPECTED DUE TO WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND A MOIST
AIRMASS IN PLACE...ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES AND OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING SIMILAR TO A GUST OBSERVED OVER
CENTRAL KY EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.

A SHOWER OR POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM COULD LINGER EARLY ON
THU...OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE VA BORDER.
OTHERWISE... AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN SKIES
SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY IN MOST LOCATIONS ON THU AFTERNOON.
WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD SET
THE STAGE FOR VALLEY FOG FORMATION LATE IN THE PERIOD. ENOUGH
DRIER AIR SHOULD WORK IN FOR SOME OF THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS
ALONG...OR NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY COULD TOUCH THE UPPER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
TAKES CONTROL OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION
FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S...BUT DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S WILL MAKE
THOSE READINGS FEEL MUCH MORE PLEASANT THAN THEY HAVE RECENTLY.

A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING THE PRECIP FALLING
APART BEFORE IT REACHES THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO
THE DRY AIR/RIDGING AT THE SURFACE. THERE IS SOME MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND WEAK ENERGY WITH THE FRONT AS IT PASSES TO OUR NORTH
SO HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES. BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ON SATURDAY FOR MOST AREAS.

SHOWER CHANCES RETURN TO THE REGION BY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE. MODELS INDICATE THAT SEVERAL UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BRINGING INCREASED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
TEMPERATURES (AND HUMIDITY) WILL INCREASE BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH HEAT INDICES LIKELY SURPASSING THE
90 DEGREE MARK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 813 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

CONVECTIVE LINE WILL GRADUALLY MAKE IT IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE
SYM...LOZ AND SME SEEING THE BEST CHANCE OF SUSTAINED CONVECTION
AND MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 01 AND 02Z...WITH SOME TEMPORARY IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT SME AND LOZ BETWEEN 02 AND 03Z. HAVE
ALLOWED MORE TEMPORARY TS AND MVFR CONDITIONS AT JKL...WITH A
GENERAL VCTS AT SJS...WHERE THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY WHETHER MORE
ORGANIZED STORMS CAN MAKE IT THAT FAR EAST. A COLD FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO THE NORTHWEST. MVFR STRATOCU AND A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE DISSIPATING THEREAFTER WITH A
RETURN TO VFR.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN





000
FXUS63 KJKL 300221 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1021 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINE OF STORMS HAS CONTINUED TO
CONSOLIDATE TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA. ONLY A FEW OF OUR
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WILL SEE LIKELY RAINS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
THE REMNANT STRATIFORM RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY IS NOT
MOVING MUCH...AND WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN...MAINLY IN PLACE. THE
LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAS GENERALLY CAUGHT ON TO THE ONGOING
CONVECTIVE TRENDS. AS SUCH...IT APPEARS THAT THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF ACTIVITY UNTIL THE ACTUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA DEEPER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHEN A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR. WILL THEREFORE HANG ONTO
SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS. ALSO ADJUSTED THE LOWS UP A TOUCH...AS THE
PUSH BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT VERY STRONG. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING SOME UPPER 60 DEGREE READINGS LOOKS TO BE ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-64. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 813 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE LATEST RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A CONVECTIVE LINE ACROSS CENTRAL
AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. NEW CELLS HAD BEEN MORE LIVELY A BIT FURTHER
NORTHEAST EARLIER...BUT SOME PRECURSORY STORMS TAPPED INTO THE
BETTER AVAILABLE AIR MASS...AND NOW THERE IS GENERALLY A WEAKENING
TREND ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE LINE...WITH BETTER COLD POOL AND
ASSOCIATED NEW DEVELOPMENT ALIGNING MORE TOWARDS THE SOUTH...WHERE
BETTER INSTABILITY REMAINS. STILL...THINK THAT SOME DEBRIS CELLS
WILL MAKE IT INTO THE WEST IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS...AND HAVE
UPPED THE POPS TO HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. AS WE
LOSE HEATING...EXPECT AN OVERALL GRADUAL DIMINISHMENT...HOWEVER
WILL STILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON HEAVY RAINERS...GIVEN THE HIGH
PWATS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

AS OF MID AFTERNOON A MID LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION...WITH A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVER
NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO AND THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH SOUTH INTO THE MS
VALLEY REGION. AT THE SFC...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED
OVER ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
AND THEN SOUTHWEST INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG OR IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT OVER OH
AND IN SOUTHWEST INTO WESTERN KY. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED NEAR A MOISTURE GRADIENT EVIDENT IN PW FROM NORTHERN KY
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL KY. THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN GENERALLY SLOW
MOVING WITH HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. AREAWIDE...A WARM AND MOIST
AIRMASS IS IN PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK TO HUDSON BAY WITH THE
TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND MID
AND UPPER OH VALLEY REGION TONIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE AND AMPLIFY AND BECOME
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES OR FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS
WILL PUT THE REGION IN NW FLOW ALOFT LATE IN THE PERIOD. AT THE
SFC...THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT OR
EARLY ON THURSDAY. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND USHER IN SLIGHTLY COLDER...BUT MORE
NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.

RATHER MEAGER MID LEVEL FORCING AND NON OPTIMAL TIMING OF THE
FROPA DURING THE LATE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD LIMIT
CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THERE SHOULD BE A PEAK IN COVERAGE
OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS OR SO...AND THEN MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION
WITH A POSSIBLE BROKEN LINE OR LINE SEGMENTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WITH RELATIVELY
SLOW STORM MOTIONS EXPECTED DUE TO WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND A MOIST
AIRMASS IN PLACE...ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES AND OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING SIMILAR TO A GUST OBSERVED OVER
CENTRAL KY EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.

A SHOWER OR POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM COULD LINGER EARLY ON
THU...OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE VA BORDER.
OTHERWISE... AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN SKIES
SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY IN MOST LOCATIONS ON THU AFTERNOON.
WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD SET
THE STAGE FOR VALLEY FOG FORMATION LATE IN THE PERIOD. ENOUGH
DRIER AIR SHOULD WORK IN FOR SOME OF THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS
ALONG...OR NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY COULD TOUCH THE UPPER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
TAKES CONTROL OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION
FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S...BUT DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S WILL MAKE
THOSE READINGS FEEL MUCH MORE PLEASANT THAN THEY HAVE RECENTLY.

A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING THE PRECIP FALLING
APART BEFORE IT REACHES THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO
THE DRY AIR/RIDGING AT THE SURFACE. THERE IS SOME MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND WEAK ENERGY WITH THE FRONT AS IT PASSES TO OUR NORTH
SO HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES. BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ON SATURDAY FOR MOST AREAS.

SHOWER CHANCES RETURN TO THE REGION BY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE. MODELS INDICATE THAT SEVERAL UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BRINGING INCREASED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
TEMPERATURES (AND HUMIDITY) WILL INCREASE BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH HEAT INDICES LIKELY SURPASSING THE
90 DEGREE MARK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 813 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

CONVECTIVE LINE WILL GRADUALLY MAKE IT IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE
SYM...LOZ AND SME SEEING THE BEST CHANCE OF SUSTAINED CONVECTION
AND MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 01 AND 02Z...WITH SOME TEMPORARY IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT SME AND LOZ BETWEEN 02 AND 03Z. HAVE
ALLOWED MORE TEMPORARY TS AND MVFR CONDITIONS AT JKL...WITH A
GENERAL VCTS AT SJS...WHERE THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY WHETHER MORE
ORGANIZED STORMS CAN MAKE IT THAT FAR EAST. A COLD FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO THE NORTHWEST. MVFR STRATOCU AND A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE DISSIPATING THEREAFTER WITH A
RETURN TO VFR.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN





000
FXUS63 KJKL 300221 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1021 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINE OF STORMS HAS CONTINUED TO
CONSOLIDATE TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA. ONLY A FEW OF OUR
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WILL SEE LIKELY RAINS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
THE REMNANT STRATIFORM RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY IS NOT
MOVING MUCH...AND WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN...MAINLY IN PLACE. THE
LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAS GENERALLY CAUGHT ON TO THE ONGOING
CONVECTIVE TRENDS. AS SUCH...IT APPEARS THAT THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF ACTIVITY UNTIL THE ACTUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA DEEPER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHEN A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR. WILL THEREFORE HANG ONTO
SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS. ALSO ADJUSTED THE LOWS UP A TOUCH...AS THE
PUSH BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT VERY STRONG. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING SOME UPPER 60 DEGREE READINGS LOOKS TO BE ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-64. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 813 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE LATEST RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A CONVECTIVE LINE ACROSS CENTRAL
AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. NEW CELLS HAD BEEN MORE LIVELY A BIT FURTHER
NORTHEAST EARLIER...BUT SOME PRECURSORY STORMS TAPPED INTO THE
BETTER AVAILABLE AIR MASS...AND NOW THERE IS GENERALLY A WEAKENING
TREND ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE LINE...WITH BETTER COLD POOL AND
ASSOCIATED NEW DEVELOPMENT ALIGNING MORE TOWARDS THE SOUTH...WHERE
BETTER INSTABILITY REMAINS. STILL...THINK THAT SOME DEBRIS CELLS
WILL MAKE IT INTO THE WEST IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS...AND HAVE
UPPED THE POPS TO HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. AS WE
LOSE HEATING...EXPECT AN OVERALL GRADUAL DIMINISHMENT...HOWEVER
WILL STILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON HEAVY RAINERS...GIVEN THE HIGH
PWATS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

AS OF MID AFTERNOON A MID LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION...WITH A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVER
NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO AND THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH SOUTH INTO THE MS
VALLEY REGION. AT THE SFC...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED
OVER ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
AND THEN SOUTHWEST INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG OR IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT OVER OH
AND IN SOUTHWEST INTO WESTERN KY. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED NEAR A MOISTURE GRADIENT EVIDENT IN PW FROM NORTHERN KY
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL KY. THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN GENERALLY SLOW
MOVING WITH HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. AREAWIDE...A WARM AND MOIST
AIRMASS IS IN PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK TO HUDSON BAY WITH THE
TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND MID
AND UPPER OH VALLEY REGION TONIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE AND AMPLIFY AND BECOME
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES OR FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS
WILL PUT THE REGION IN NW FLOW ALOFT LATE IN THE PERIOD. AT THE
SFC...THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT OR
EARLY ON THURSDAY. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND USHER IN SLIGHTLY COLDER...BUT MORE
NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.

RATHER MEAGER MID LEVEL FORCING AND NON OPTIMAL TIMING OF THE
FROPA DURING THE LATE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD LIMIT
CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THERE SHOULD BE A PEAK IN COVERAGE
OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS OR SO...AND THEN MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION
WITH A POSSIBLE BROKEN LINE OR LINE SEGMENTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WITH RELATIVELY
SLOW STORM MOTIONS EXPECTED DUE TO WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND A MOIST
AIRMASS IN PLACE...ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES AND OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING SIMILAR TO A GUST OBSERVED OVER
CENTRAL KY EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.

A SHOWER OR POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM COULD LINGER EARLY ON
THU...OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE VA BORDER.
OTHERWISE... AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN SKIES
SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY IN MOST LOCATIONS ON THU AFTERNOON.
WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD SET
THE STAGE FOR VALLEY FOG FORMATION LATE IN THE PERIOD. ENOUGH
DRIER AIR SHOULD WORK IN FOR SOME OF THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS
ALONG...OR NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY COULD TOUCH THE UPPER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
TAKES CONTROL OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION
FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S...BUT DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S WILL MAKE
THOSE READINGS FEEL MUCH MORE PLEASANT THAN THEY HAVE RECENTLY.

A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING THE PRECIP FALLING
APART BEFORE IT REACHES THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO
THE DRY AIR/RIDGING AT THE SURFACE. THERE IS SOME MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND WEAK ENERGY WITH THE FRONT AS IT PASSES TO OUR NORTH
SO HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES. BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ON SATURDAY FOR MOST AREAS.

SHOWER CHANCES RETURN TO THE REGION BY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE. MODELS INDICATE THAT SEVERAL UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BRINGING INCREASED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
TEMPERATURES (AND HUMIDITY) WILL INCREASE BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH HEAT INDICES LIKELY SURPASSING THE
90 DEGREE MARK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 813 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

CONVECTIVE LINE WILL GRADUALLY MAKE IT IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE
SYM...LOZ AND SME SEEING THE BEST CHANCE OF SUSTAINED CONVECTION
AND MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 01 AND 02Z...WITH SOME TEMPORARY IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT SME AND LOZ BETWEEN 02 AND 03Z. HAVE
ALLOWED MORE TEMPORARY TS AND MVFR CONDITIONS AT JKL...WITH A
GENERAL VCTS AT SJS...WHERE THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY WHETHER MORE
ORGANIZED STORMS CAN MAKE IT THAT FAR EAST. A COLD FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO THE NORTHWEST. MVFR STRATOCU AND A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE DISSIPATING THEREAFTER WITH A
RETURN TO VFR.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN




000
FXUS63 KJKL 300014 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
814 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 813 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE LATEST RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A CONVECTIVE LINE ACROSS CENTRAL
AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. NEW CELLS HAD BEEN MORE LIVELY A BIT FURTHER
NORTHEAST EARLIER...BUT SOME PRECURSORY STORMS TAPPED INTO THE
BETTER AVAILABLE AIR MASS...AND NOW THERE IS GENERALLY A WEAKENING
TREND ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE LINE...WITH BETTER COLD POOL AND
ASSOCIATED NEW DEVELOPMENT ALIGNING MORE TOWARDS THE SOUTH...WHERE
BETTER INSTABILITY REMAINS. STILL...THINK THAT SOME DEBRIS CELLS
WILL MAKE IT INTO THE WEST IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS...AND HAVE
UPPED THE POPS TO HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. AS WE
LOSE HEATING...EXPECT AN OVERALL GRADUAL DIMINISHMENT...HOWEVER
WILL STILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON HEAVY RAINERS...GIVEN THE HIGH
PWATS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

AS OF MID AFTERNOON A MID LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION...WITH A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVER
NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO AND THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH SOUTH INTO THE MS
VALLEY REGION. AT THE SFC...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED
OVER ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
AND THEN SOUTHWEST INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG OR IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT OVER OH
AND IN SOUTHWEST INTO WESTERN KY. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED NEAR A MOISTURE GRADIENT EVIDENT IN PW FROM NORTHERN KY
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL KY. THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN GENERALLY SLOW
MOVING WITH HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. AREAWIDE...A WARM AND MOIST
AIRMASS IS IN PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK TO HUDSON BAY WITH THE
TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND MID
AND UPPER OH VALLEY REGION TONIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE AND AMPLIFY AND BECOME
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES OR FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS
WILL PUT THE REGION IN NW FLOW ALOFT LATE IN THE PERIOD. AT THE
SFC...THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT OR
EARLY ON THURSDAY. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND USHER IN SLIGHTLY COLDER...BUT MORE
NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.

RATHER MEAGER MID LEVEL FORCING AND NON OPTIMAL TIMING OF THE
FROPA DURING THE LATE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD LIMIT
CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THERE SHOULD BE A PEAK IN COVERAGE
OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS OR SO...AND THEN MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION
WITH A POSSIBLE BROKEN LINE OR LINE SEGMENTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WITH RELATIVELY
SLOW STORM MOTIONS EXPECTED DUE TO WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND A MOIST
AIRMASS IN PLACE...ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES AND OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING SIMILAR TO A GUST OBSERVED OVER
CENTRAL KY EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.

A SHOWER OR POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM COULD LINGER EARLY ON
THU...OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE VA BORDER.
OTHERWISE... AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN SKIES
SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY IN MOST LOCATIONS ON THU AFTERNOON.
WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD SET
THE STAGE FOR VALLEY FOG FORMATION LATE IN THE PERIOD. ENOUGH
DRIER AIR SHOULD WORK IN FOR SOME OF THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS
ALONG...OR NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY COULD TOUCH THE UPPER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
TAKES CONTROL OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION
FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S...BUT DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S WILL MAKE
THOSE READINGS FEEL MUCH MORE PLEASANT THAN THEY HAVE RECENTLY.

A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING THE PRECIP FALLING
APART BEFORE IT REACHES THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO
THE DRY AIR/RIDGING AT THE SURFACE. THERE IS SOME MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND WEAK ENERGY WITH THE FRONT AS IT PASSES TO OUR NORTH
SO HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES. BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ON SATURDAY FOR MOST AREAS.

SHOWER CHANCES RETURN TO THE REGION BY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE. MODELS INDICATE THAT SEVERAL UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BRINGING INCREASED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
TEMPERATURES (AND HUMIDITY) WILL INCREASE BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH HEAT INDICES LIKELY SURPASSING THE
90 DEGREE MARK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 813 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

CONVECTIVE LINE WILL GRADUALLY MAKE IT IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE
SYM...LOZ AND SME SEEING THE BEST CHANCE OF SUSTAINED CONVECTION
AND MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 01 AND 02Z...WITH SOME TEMPORARY IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT SME AND LOZ BETWEEN 02 AND 03Z. HAVE
ALLOWED MORE TEMPORARY TS AND MVFR CONDITIONS AT JKL...WITH A
GENERAL VCTS AT SJS...WHERE THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY WHETHER MORE
ORGANIZED STORMS CAN MAKE IT THAT FAR EAST. A COLD FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO THE NORTHWEST. MVFR STRATOCU AND A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE DISSIPATING THEREAFTER WITH A
RETURN TO VFR.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN




000
FXUS63 KJKL 300014 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
814 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 813 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE LATEST RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A CONVECTIVE LINE ACROSS CENTRAL
AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. NEW CELLS HAD BEEN MORE LIVELY A BIT FURTHER
NORTHEAST EARLIER...BUT SOME PRECURSORY STORMS TAPPED INTO THE
BETTER AVAILABLE AIR MASS...AND NOW THERE IS GENERALLY A WEAKENING
TREND ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE LINE...WITH BETTER COLD POOL AND
ASSOCIATED NEW DEVELOPMENT ALIGNING MORE TOWARDS THE SOUTH...WHERE
BETTER INSTABILITY REMAINS. STILL...THINK THAT SOME DEBRIS CELLS
WILL MAKE IT INTO THE WEST IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS...AND HAVE
UPPED THE POPS TO HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. AS WE
LOSE HEATING...EXPECT AN OVERALL GRADUAL DIMINISHMENT...HOWEVER
WILL STILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON HEAVY RAINERS...GIVEN THE HIGH
PWATS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

AS OF MID AFTERNOON A MID LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION...WITH A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVER
NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO AND THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH SOUTH INTO THE MS
VALLEY REGION. AT THE SFC...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED
OVER ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
AND THEN SOUTHWEST INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG OR IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT OVER OH
AND IN SOUTHWEST INTO WESTERN KY. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED NEAR A MOISTURE GRADIENT EVIDENT IN PW FROM NORTHERN KY
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL KY. THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN GENERALLY SLOW
MOVING WITH HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. AREAWIDE...A WARM AND MOIST
AIRMASS IS IN PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK TO HUDSON BAY WITH THE
TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND MID
AND UPPER OH VALLEY REGION TONIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE AND AMPLIFY AND BECOME
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES OR FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS
WILL PUT THE REGION IN NW FLOW ALOFT LATE IN THE PERIOD. AT THE
SFC...THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT OR
EARLY ON THURSDAY. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND USHER IN SLIGHTLY COLDER...BUT MORE
NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.

RATHER MEAGER MID LEVEL FORCING AND NON OPTIMAL TIMING OF THE
FROPA DURING THE LATE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD LIMIT
CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THERE SHOULD BE A PEAK IN COVERAGE
OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS OR SO...AND THEN MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION
WITH A POSSIBLE BROKEN LINE OR LINE SEGMENTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WITH RELATIVELY
SLOW STORM MOTIONS EXPECTED DUE TO WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND A MOIST
AIRMASS IN PLACE...ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES AND OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING SIMILAR TO A GUST OBSERVED OVER
CENTRAL KY EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.

A SHOWER OR POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM COULD LINGER EARLY ON
THU...OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE VA BORDER.
OTHERWISE... AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN SKIES
SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY IN MOST LOCATIONS ON THU AFTERNOON.
WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD SET
THE STAGE FOR VALLEY FOG FORMATION LATE IN THE PERIOD. ENOUGH
DRIER AIR SHOULD WORK IN FOR SOME OF THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS
ALONG...OR NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY COULD TOUCH THE UPPER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
TAKES CONTROL OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION
FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S...BUT DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S WILL MAKE
THOSE READINGS FEEL MUCH MORE PLEASANT THAN THEY HAVE RECENTLY.

A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING THE PRECIP FALLING
APART BEFORE IT REACHES THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO
THE DRY AIR/RIDGING AT THE SURFACE. THERE IS SOME MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND WEAK ENERGY WITH THE FRONT AS IT PASSES TO OUR NORTH
SO HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES. BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ON SATURDAY FOR MOST AREAS.

SHOWER CHANCES RETURN TO THE REGION BY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE. MODELS INDICATE THAT SEVERAL UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BRINGING INCREASED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
TEMPERATURES (AND HUMIDITY) WILL INCREASE BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH HEAT INDICES LIKELY SURPASSING THE
90 DEGREE MARK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 813 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

CONVECTIVE LINE WILL GRADUALLY MAKE IT IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE
SYM...LOZ AND SME SEEING THE BEST CHANCE OF SUSTAINED CONVECTION
AND MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 01 AND 02Z...WITH SOME TEMPORARY IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT SME AND LOZ BETWEEN 02 AND 03Z. HAVE
ALLOWED MORE TEMPORARY TS AND MVFR CONDITIONS AT JKL...WITH A
GENERAL VCTS AT SJS...WHERE THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY WHETHER MORE
ORGANIZED STORMS CAN MAKE IT THAT FAR EAST. A COLD FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO THE NORTHWEST. MVFR STRATOCU AND A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE DISSIPATING THEREAFTER WITH A
RETURN TO VFR.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN





000
FXUS63 KJKL 291943
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
343 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

AS OF MID AFTERNOON A MID LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION...WITH A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVER
NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO AND THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH SOUTH INTO THE MS
VALLEY REGION. AT THE SFC...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED
OVER ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
AND THEN SOUTHWEST INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG OR IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT OVER OH
AND IN SOUTHWEST INTO WESTERN KY. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED NEAR A MOISTURE GRADIENT EVIDENT IN PW FROM NORTHERN KY
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL KY. THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN GENERALLY SLOW
MOVING WITH HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. AREAWIDE...A WARM AND MOIST
AIRMASS IS IN PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK TO HUDSON BAY WITH THE
TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND MID
AND UPPER OH VALLEY REGION TONIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE AND AMPLIFY AND BECOME
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES OR FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS
WILL PUT THE REGION IN NW FLOW ALOFT LATE IN THE PERIOD. AT THE
SFC...THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT OR
EARLY ON THURSDAY. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND USHER IN SLIGHTLY COLDER...BUT MORE
NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.

RATHER MEAGER MID LEVEL FORCING AND NON OPTIMAL TIMING OF THE
FROPA DURING THE LATE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD LIMIT
CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THERE SHOULD BE A PEAK IN COVERAGE
OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS OR SO...AND THEN MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION
WITH A POSSIBLE BROKEN LINE OR LINE SEGMENTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WITH RELATIVELY
SLOW STORM MOTIONS EXPECTED DUE TO WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND A MOIST
AIRMASS IN PLACE...ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES AND OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING SIMILAR TO A GUST OBSERVED OVER
CENTRAL KY EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.

A SHOWER OR POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM COULD LINGER EARLY ON
THU...OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE VA BORDER.
OTHERWISE... AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN SKIES
SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY IN MOST LOCATIONS ON THU AFTERNOON.
WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD SET
THE STAGE FOR VALLEY FOG FORMATION LATE IN THE PERIOD. ENOUGH
DRIER AIR SHOULD WORK IN FOR SOME OF THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS
ALONG...OR NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY COULD TOUCH THE UPPER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
TAKES CONTROL OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION
FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S...BUT DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S WILL MAKE
THOSE READINGS FEEL MUCH MORE PLEASANT THAN THEY HAVE RECENTLY.

A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING THE PRECIP FALLING
APART BEFORE IT REACHES THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO
THE DRY AIR/RIDGING AT THE SURFACE. THERE IS SOME MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND WEAK ENERGY WITH THE FRONT AS IT PASSES TO OUR NORTH
SO HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES. BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ON SATURDAY FOR MOST AREAS.

SHOWER CHANCES RETURN TO THE REGION BY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE. MODELS INDICATE THAT SEVERAL UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BRINGING INCREASED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
TEMPERATURES (AND HUMIDITY) WILL INCREASE BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH HEAT INDICES LIKELY SURPASSING THE
90 DEGREE MARK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

MVFR LINGERS WHERE THE EARLY MORNING FOG AND STRATUS HAS LIFTED
INTO CU. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE LIFTING...WITH VFR EXPECTED OUTSIDE
OF ANY SHRA AND TSRA BY 20Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA AND TSRA
SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE FIRST 4 HOURS OF THE PERIOD...WITH A
POSSIBLE LULL IN ACTIVITY BEFORE MORE SCATTERED SHRA AND TSRA AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION AFTER 0Z. ANY HEAVIER SHRA OR
TSRA WILL BRING BRIEF IFR VIS AND OR CIGS. BEHIND THE FRONT...GENERALLY
AFTER THE 4Z TO 6Z PERIOD...ANOTHER PERIOD OF IFR TO MVFR IS
POSSIBLE. THESE LOW CIGS WOULD LIFT BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KJKL 291943
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
343 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

AS OF MID AFTERNOON A MID LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION...WITH A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVER
NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO AND THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH SOUTH INTO THE MS
VALLEY REGION. AT THE SFC...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED
OVER ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
AND THEN SOUTHWEST INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG OR IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT OVER OH
AND IN SOUTHWEST INTO WESTERN KY. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED NEAR A MOISTURE GRADIENT EVIDENT IN PW FROM NORTHERN KY
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL KY. THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN GENERALLY SLOW
MOVING WITH HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. AREAWIDE...A WARM AND MOIST
AIRMASS IS IN PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK TO HUDSON BAY WITH THE
TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND MID
AND UPPER OH VALLEY REGION TONIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE AND AMPLIFY AND BECOME
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES OR FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS
WILL PUT THE REGION IN NW FLOW ALOFT LATE IN THE PERIOD. AT THE
SFC...THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT OR
EARLY ON THURSDAY. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND USHER IN SLIGHTLY COLDER...BUT MORE
NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.

RATHER MEAGER MID LEVEL FORCING AND NON OPTIMAL TIMING OF THE
FROPA DURING THE LATE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD LIMIT
CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THERE SHOULD BE A PEAK IN COVERAGE
OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS OR SO...AND THEN MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION
WITH A POSSIBLE BROKEN LINE OR LINE SEGMENTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WITH RELATIVELY
SLOW STORM MOTIONS EXPECTED DUE TO WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND A MOIST
AIRMASS IN PLACE...ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES AND OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING SIMILAR TO A GUST OBSERVED OVER
CENTRAL KY EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.

A SHOWER OR POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM COULD LINGER EARLY ON
THU...OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE VA BORDER.
OTHERWISE... AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN SKIES
SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY IN MOST LOCATIONS ON THU AFTERNOON.
WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD SET
THE STAGE FOR VALLEY FOG FORMATION LATE IN THE PERIOD. ENOUGH
DRIER AIR SHOULD WORK IN FOR SOME OF THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS
ALONG...OR NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY COULD TOUCH THE UPPER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
TAKES CONTROL OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION
FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S...BUT DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S WILL MAKE
THOSE READINGS FEEL MUCH MORE PLEASANT THAN THEY HAVE RECENTLY.

A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING THE PRECIP FALLING
APART BEFORE IT REACHES THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO
THE DRY AIR/RIDGING AT THE SURFACE. THERE IS SOME MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND WEAK ENERGY WITH THE FRONT AS IT PASSES TO OUR NORTH
SO HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES. BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ON SATURDAY FOR MOST AREAS.

SHOWER CHANCES RETURN TO THE REGION BY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE. MODELS INDICATE THAT SEVERAL UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BRINGING INCREASED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
TEMPERATURES (AND HUMIDITY) WILL INCREASE BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH HEAT INDICES LIKELY SURPASSING THE
90 DEGREE MARK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

MVFR LINGERS WHERE THE EARLY MORNING FOG AND STRATUS HAS LIFTED
INTO CU. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE LIFTING...WITH VFR EXPECTED OUTSIDE
OF ANY SHRA AND TSRA BY 20Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA AND TSRA
SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE FIRST 4 HOURS OF THE PERIOD...WITH A
POSSIBLE LULL IN ACTIVITY BEFORE MORE SCATTERED SHRA AND TSRA AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION AFTER 0Z. ANY HEAVIER SHRA OR
TSRA WILL BRING BRIEF IFR VIS AND OR CIGS. BEHIND THE FRONT...GENERALLY
AFTER THE 4Z TO 6Z PERIOD...ANOTHER PERIOD OF IFR TO MVFR IS
POSSIBLE. THESE LOW CIGS WOULD LIFT BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...JP





000
FXUS63 KJKL 291943
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
343 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

AS OF MID AFTERNOON A MID LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION...WITH A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVER
NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO AND THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH SOUTH INTO THE MS
VALLEY REGION. AT THE SFC...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED
OVER ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
AND THEN SOUTHWEST INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG OR IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT OVER OH
AND IN SOUTHWEST INTO WESTERN KY. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED NEAR A MOISTURE GRADIENT EVIDENT IN PW FROM NORTHERN KY
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL KY. THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN GENERALLY SLOW
MOVING WITH HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. AREAWIDE...A WARM AND MOIST
AIRMASS IS IN PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK TO HUDSON BAY WITH THE
TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND MID
AND UPPER OH VALLEY REGION TONIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE AND AMPLIFY AND BECOME
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES OR FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS
WILL PUT THE REGION IN NW FLOW ALOFT LATE IN THE PERIOD. AT THE
SFC...THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT OR
EARLY ON THURSDAY. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND USHER IN SLIGHTLY COLDER...BUT MORE
NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.

RATHER MEAGER MID LEVEL FORCING AND NON OPTIMAL TIMING OF THE
FROPA DURING THE LATE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD LIMIT
CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THERE SHOULD BE A PEAK IN COVERAGE
OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS OR SO...AND THEN MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION
WITH A POSSIBLE BROKEN LINE OR LINE SEGMENTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WITH RELATIVELY
SLOW STORM MOTIONS EXPECTED DUE TO WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND A MOIST
AIRMASS IN PLACE...ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES AND OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING SIMILAR TO A GUST OBSERVED OVER
CENTRAL KY EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.

A SHOWER OR POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM COULD LINGER EARLY ON
THU...OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE VA BORDER.
OTHERWISE... AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN SKIES
SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY IN MOST LOCATIONS ON THU AFTERNOON.
WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD SET
THE STAGE FOR VALLEY FOG FORMATION LATE IN THE PERIOD. ENOUGH
DRIER AIR SHOULD WORK IN FOR SOME OF THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS
ALONG...OR NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY COULD TOUCH THE UPPER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
TAKES CONTROL OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION
FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S...BUT DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S WILL MAKE
THOSE READINGS FEEL MUCH MORE PLEASANT THAN THEY HAVE RECENTLY.

A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING THE PRECIP FALLING
APART BEFORE IT REACHES THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO
THE DRY AIR/RIDGING AT THE SURFACE. THERE IS SOME MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND WEAK ENERGY WITH THE FRONT AS IT PASSES TO OUR NORTH
SO HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES. BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ON SATURDAY FOR MOST AREAS.

SHOWER CHANCES RETURN TO THE REGION BY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE. MODELS INDICATE THAT SEVERAL UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BRINGING INCREASED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
TEMPERATURES (AND HUMIDITY) WILL INCREASE BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH HEAT INDICES LIKELY SURPASSING THE
90 DEGREE MARK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

MVFR LINGERS WHERE THE EARLY MORNING FOG AND STRATUS HAS LIFTED
INTO CU. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE LIFTING...WITH VFR EXPECTED OUTSIDE
OF ANY SHRA AND TSRA BY 20Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA AND TSRA
SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE FIRST 4 HOURS OF THE PERIOD...WITH A
POSSIBLE LULL IN ACTIVITY BEFORE MORE SCATTERED SHRA AND TSRA AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION AFTER 0Z. ANY HEAVIER SHRA OR
TSRA WILL BRING BRIEF IFR VIS AND OR CIGS. BEHIND THE FRONT...GENERALLY
AFTER THE 4Z TO 6Z PERIOD...ANOTHER PERIOD OF IFR TO MVFR IS
POSSIBLE. THESE LOW CIGS WOULD LIFT BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KJKL 291943
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
343 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

AS OF MID AFTERNOON A MID LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION...WITH A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVER
NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO AND THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH SOUTH INTO THE MS
VALLEY REGION. AT THE SFC...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED
OVER ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
AND THEN SOUTHWEST INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG OR IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT OVER OH
AND IN SOUTHWEST INTO WESTERN KY. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED NEAR A MOISTURE GRADIENT EVIDENT IN PW FROM NORTHERN KY
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL KY. THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN GENERALLY SLOW
MOVING WITH HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. AREAWIDE...A WARM AND MOIST
AIRMASS IS IN PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK TO HUDSON BAY WITH THE
TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND MID
AND UPPER OH VALLEY REGION TONIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE AND AMPLIFY AND BECOME
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES OR FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS
WILL PUT THE REGION IN NW FLOW ALOFT LATE IN THE PERIOD. AT THE
SFC...THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT OR
EARLY ON THURSDAY. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND USHER IN SLIGHTLY COLDER...BUT MORE
NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.

RATHER MEAGER MID LEVEL FORCING AND NON OPTIMAL TIMING OF THE
FROPA DURING THE LATE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD LIMIT
CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THERE SHOULD BE A PEAK IN COVERAGE
OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS OR SO...AND THEN MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION
WITH A POSSIBLE BROKEN LINE OR LINE SEGMENTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WITH RELATIVELY
SLOW STORM MOTIONS EXPECTED DUE TO WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND A MOIST
AIRMASS IN PLACE...ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES AND OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING SIMILAR TO A GUST OBSERVED OVER
CENTRAL KY EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.

A SHOWER OR POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM COULD LINGER EARLY ON
THU...OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE VA BORDER.
OTHERWISE... AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN SKIES
SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY IN MOST LOCATIONS ON THU AFTERNOON.
WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD SET
THE STAGE FOR VALLEY FOG FORMATION LATE IN THE PERIOD. ENOUGH
DRIER AIR SHOULD WORK IN FOR SOME OF THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS
ALONG...OR NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY COULD TOUCH THE UPPER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
TAKES CONTROL OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION
FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S...BUT DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S WILL MAKE
THOSE READINGS FEEL MUCH MORE PLEASANT THAN THEY HAVE RECENTLY.

A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING THE PRECIP FALLING
APART BEFORE IT REACHES THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO
THE DRY AIR/RIDGING AT THE SURFACE. THERE IS SOME MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND WEAK ENERGY WITH THE FRONT AS IT PASSES TO OUR NORTH
SO HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES. BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ON SATURDAY FOR MOST AREAS.

SHOWER CHANCES RETURN TO THE REGION BY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE. MODELS INDICATE THAT SEVERAL UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BRINGING INCREASED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
TEMPERATURES (AND HUMIDITY) WILL INCREASE BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH HEAT INDICES LIKELY SURPASSING THE
90 DEGREE MARK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

MVFR LINGERS WHERE THE EARLY MORNING FOG AND STRATUS HAS LIFTED
INTO CU. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE LIFTING...WITH VFR EXPECTED OUTSIDE
OF ANY SHRA AND TSRA BY 20Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA AND TSRA
SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE FIRST 4 HOURS OF THE PERIOD...WITH A
POSSIBLE LULL IN ACTIVITY BEFORE MORE SCATTERED SHRA AND TSRA AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION AFTER 0Z. ANY HEAVIER SHRA OR
TSRA WILL BRING BRIEF IFR VIS AND OR CIGS. BEHIND THE FRONT...GENERALLY
AFTER THE 4Z TO 6Z PERIOD...ANOTHER PERIOD OF IFR TO MVFR IS
POSSIBLE. THESE LOW CIGS WOULD LIFT BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...JP





000
FXUS63 KJKL 291856
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
256 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 115 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY LIFT AND MIX INTO CU. OVERALL...A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS
IS IN PLACE...AND A COUPLE OF STRAY SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL KY. THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP...BUT
THESE MAY WANE DURING THE EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE AREA DURING THE LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. OVERALL... HOURLY GRIDS WERE FRESHENED UP BASED ON RECENT
OBSERVATIONS...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL CHANGE ATTM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1111 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE REGION IS IN THE WARM SECTOR AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. A WARM AND RATHER MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S. HOWEVER...THE AIRMASS IS NOT QUITE AS MOIST THROUGH THE
ENTIRE COLUMN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PART OF THE AREA
WITH PW THERE AROUND 1.6 INCHES. PW ACROSS THE WEST IS AROUND 1.8
TO 1.9 INCHES.

WITH DAYTIME HEATING...LOW CLOUDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY LIFT INTO CU
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA. THE AIRMASS SHOULD ALSO
DESTABILIZE WITH ML CAPES EXPECTED TO REACH THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
RANGE ACROSS THE WEST BY MID AFTERNOON. THE MOISTURE GRADIENT
ACROSS CENTRAL KY INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA MAY BE A FOCUS
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY. ALSO...THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ALONG THE VA BORDER THAT IS GETTING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ATTM AND
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING NEAR WHERE HEAVIER RAIN FELL ON TUESDAY MAY
ALSO BE POSSIBLE LOCATIONS FOR THE FIRST CELL DEVELOPMENT. SHEAR
IS RATHER WEAK TODAY...AND CELLS SHOULD MORE OR LESS PROPAGATE VIA
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION...AND POSSIBLE A
BROKEN LINE OF LINE SEGMENTS OF STORMS SHOULD NEAR THE REGION
AROUND SUNSET. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 805 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

MADE ONLY MINOR UPDATES FOR EARLY MORNING OBS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

ISOLATED SLOW MOVING SHOWERS HAVE PERSISTED DURING THE NIGHT IN
THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
THAT SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THIS
MORNING...BUT THE PROBABILITY AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION IS LOW.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS MORE PROBABLE
BY THIS AFTERNOON AS HEATING OCCURS. MOST OF THEM SHOULD DIE OUT
AGAIN IN THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR ALOFT AND A POST FRONTAL
INVERSION WILL PUT AN END TO ANY LINGERING SHOWERS...WITH MOST OF
THURSDAY BEING DRY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
TAKES CONTROL OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION
FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S...BUT DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S WILL MAKE
THOSE READINGS FEEL MUCH MORE PLEASANT THAN THEY HAVE RECENTLY.

A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING THE PRECIP FALLING
APART BEFORE IT REACHES THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO
THE DRY AIR/RIDGING AT THE SURFACE. THERE IS SOME MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND WEAK ENERGY WITH THE FRONT AS IT PASSES TO OUR NORTH
SO HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES. BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ON SATURDAY FOR MOST AREAS.

SHOWER CHANCES RETURN TO THE REGION BY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE. MODELS INDICATE THAT SEVERAL UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BRINGING INCREASED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
TEMPERATURES (AND HUMIDITY) WILL INCREASE BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH HEAT INDICES LIKELY SURPASSING THE
90 DEGREE MARK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

MVFR LINGERS WHERE THE EARLY MORNING FOG AND STRATUS HAS LIFTED
INTO CU. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE LIFTING...WITH VFR EXPECTED OUTSIDE
OF ANY SHRA AND TSRA BY 20Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA AND TSRA
SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE FIRST 4 HOURS OF THE PERIOD...WITH A
POSSIBLE LULL IN ACTIVITY BEFORE MORE SCATTERED SHRA AND TSRA AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION AFTER 0Z. ANY HEAVIER SHRA OR
TSRA WILL BRING BRIEF IFR VIS AND OR CIGS. BEHIND THE FRONT...GENERALLY
AFTER THE 4Z TO 6Z PERIOD...ANOTHER PERIOD OF IFR TO MVFR IS
POSSIBLE. THESE LOW CIGS WOULD LIFT BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KJKL 291856
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
256 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 115 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY LIFT AND MIX INTO CU. OVERALL...A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS
IS IN PLACE...AND A COUPLE OF STRAY SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL KY. THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP...BUT
THESE MAY WANE DURING THE EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE AREA DURING THE LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. OVERALL... HOURLY GRIDS WERE FRESHENED UP BASED ON RECENT
OBSERVATIONS...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL CHANGE ATTM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1111 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE REGION IS IN THE WARM SECTOR AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. A WARM AND RATHER MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S. HOWEVER...THE AIRMASS IS NOT QUITE AS MOIST THROUGH THE
ENTIRE COLUMN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PART OF THE AREA
WITH PW THERE AROUND 1.6 INCHES. PW ACROSS THE WEST IS AROUND 1.8
TO 1.9 INCHES.

WITH DAYTIME HEATING...LOW CLOUDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY LIFT INTO CU
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA. THE AIRMASS SHOULD ALSO
DESTABILIZE WITH ML CAPES EXPECTED TO REACH THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
RANGE ACROSS THE WEST BY MID AFTERNOON. THE MOISTURE GRADIENT
ACROSS CENTRAL KY INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA MAY BE A FOCUS
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY. ALSO...THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ALONG THE VA BORDER THAT IS GETTING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ATTM AND
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING NEAR WHERE HEAVIER RAIN FELL ON TUESDAY MAY
ALSO BE POSSIBLE LOCATIONS FOR THE FIRST CELL DEVELOPMENT. SHEAR
IS RATHER WEAK TODAY...AND CELLS SHOULD MORE OR LESS PROPAGATE VIA
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION...AND POSSIBLE A
BROKEN LINE OF LINE SEGMENTS OF STORMS SHOULD NEAR THE REGION
AROUND SUNSET. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 805 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

MADE ONLY MINOR UPDATES FOR EARLY MORNING OBS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

ISOLATED SLOW MOVING SHOWERS HAVE PERSISTED DURING THE NIGHT IN
THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
THAT SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THIS
MORNING...BUT THE PROBABILITY AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION IS LOW.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS MORE PROBABLE
BY THIS AFTERNOON AS HEATING OCCURS. MOST OF THEM SHOULD DIE OUT
AGAIN IN THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR ALOFT AND A POST FRONTAL
INVERSION WILL PUT AN END TO ANY LINGERING SHOWERS...WITH MOST OF
THURSDAY BEING DRY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
TAKES CONTROL OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION
FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S...BUT DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S WILL MAKE
THOSE READINGS FEEL MUCH MORE PLEASANT THAN THEY HAVE RECENTLY.

A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING THE PRECIP FALLING
APART BEFORE IT REACHES THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO
THE DRY AIR/RIDGING AT THE SURFACE. THERE IS SOME MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND WEAK ENERGY WITH THE FRONT AS IT PASSES TO OUR NORTH
SO HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES. BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ON SATURDAY FOR MOST AREAS.

SHOWER CHANCES RETURN TO THE REGION BY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE. MODELS INDICATE THAT SEVERAL UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BRINGING INCREASED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
TEMPERATURES (AND HUMIDITY) WILL INCREASE BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH HEAT INDICES LIKELY SURPASSING THE
90 DEGREE MARK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

MVFR LINGERS WHERE THE EARLY MORNING FOG AND STRATUS HAS LIFTED
INTO CU. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE LIFTING...WITH VFR EXPECTED OUTSIDE
OF ANY SHRA AND TSRA BY 20Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA AND TSRA
SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE FIRST 4 HOURS OF THE PERIOD...WITH A
POSSIBLE LULL IN ACTIVITY BEFORE MORE SCATTERED SHRA AND TSRA AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION AFTER 0Z. ANY HEAVIER SHRA OR
TSRA WILL BRING BRIEF IFR VIS AND OR CIGS. BEHIND THE FRONT...GENERALLY
AFTER THE 4Z TO 6Z PERIOD...ANOTHER PERIOD OF IFR TO MVFR IS
POSSIBLE. THESE LOW CIGS WOULD LIFT BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...JP





000
FXUS63 KJKL 291725 AAC
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
125 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 115 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY LIFT AND MIX INTO CU. OVERALL...A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS
IS IN PLACE...AND A COUPLE OF STRAY SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL KY. THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP...BUT
THESE MAY WANE DURING THE EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE AREA DURING THE LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. OVERALL... HOURLY GRIDS WERE FRESHENED UP BASED ON RECENT
OBSERVATIONS...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL CHANGE ATTM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1111 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE REGION IS IN THE WARM SECTOR AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. A WARM AND RATHER MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S. HOWEVER...THE AIRMASS IS NOT QUITE AS MOIST THROUGH THE
ENTIRE COLUMN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PART OF THE AREA
WITH PW THERE AROUND 1.6 INCHES. PW ACROSS THE WEST IS AROUND 1.8
TO 1.9 INCHES.

WITH DAYTIME HEATING...LOW CLOUDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY LIFT INTO CU
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA. THE AIRMASS SHOULD ALSO
DESTABILIZE WITH ML CAPES EXPECTED TO REACH THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
RANGE ACROSS THE WEST BY MID AFTERNOON. THE MOISTURE GRADIENT
ACROSS CENTRAL KY INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA MAY BE A FOCUS
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY. ALSO...THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ALONG THE VA BORDER THAT IS GETTING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ATTM AND
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING NEAR WHERE HEAVIER RAIN FELL ON TUESDAY MAY
ALSO BE POSSIBLE LOCATIONS FOR THE FIRST CELL DEVELOPMENT. SHEAR
IS RATHER WEAK TODAY...AND CELLS SHOULD MORE OR LESS PROPAGATE VIA
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION...AND POSSIBLE A
BROKEN LINE OF LINE SEGMENTS OF STORMS SHOULD NEAR THE REGION
AROUND SUNSET. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 805 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

MADE ONLY MINOR UPDATES FOR EARLY MORNING OBS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

ISOLATED SLOW MOVING SHOWERS HAVE PERSISTED DURING THE NIGHT IN
THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
THAT SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THIS
MORNING...BUT THE PROBABILITY AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION IS LOW.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS MORE PROBABLE
BY THIS AFTERNOON AS HEATING OCCURS. MOST OF THEM SHOULD DIE OUT
AGAIN IN THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR ALOFT AND A POST FRONTAL
INVERSION WILL PUT AN END TO ANY LINGERING SHOWERS...WITH MOST OF
THURSDAY BEING DRY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

WE WILL BE IN A POST FRONTAL REGIME TO START OFF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST AT 0Z FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE
HOLD THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER NRLY WINDS AT THE
SURFACE. MEANWHILE...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS HUDSON BAY...ROTATING AROUND THE BAY FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A LONGWAVE
TROUGHING PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND EASTERN
CONUS...CONTINUING THE NW FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. THIS NW FLOW WILL PROVIDE THE PERFECT SCENARIO FOR
SHORTWAVES TO TRACK SE ALONG THE TROUGH AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
HAVE HOLD AT THE SURFACE. THE QUESTION THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED IS
WHETHER OR NOT THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SWAY
THE IMPACT OF THESE SHORTWAVES AS THEY MOVE THROUGH EASTERN KY.

THE FIRST OF THESE SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. AS OF 0Z FRIDAY...THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
POSED TO BE LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION...AND WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE
SHORTWAVE NEARS. HOWEVER...THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE MOISTURE DEPRIVED
AND FAIRLY WEAK. LATEST MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME DISAGREEMENT
ON IF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN DEEP MOISTURE AS IT
MOVES INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. JUST LIKE YESTERDAY...THE GFS IS
POINTING TOWARDS A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS MAKING IT INTO THE
CWA...WHILE THE ECMWF IS KEEPING US DRY. MEANWHILE...DESPITE THE
PLAN VIEW GFS OUTPUT...THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE ONLY
POINTING AT A NARROW WINDOW OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH ABUNDANT
DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE. THIS IS MORE CHARACTERISTIC OF SOME SCT
TO BKN CLOUD COVER RATHER THAN RAINFALL. AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE
TO TREND TOWARD THE DRIER ECMWF.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AS WE FINISH OUT THE 7 DAY FORECAST. GRANTED...THIS
IS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST...BUT MODELS ARE IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SO CONFIDENCE IS A BIT HIGHER. THIS
PARTICULAR UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIGGING AS IT
NEARS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION...LENDING TO A STRONGER SURFACE
BOUNDARY. IF THIS PROVES TO BE TRUE...WE MAY SEE OUR NEXT BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...

THE POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS AND DRIER NW FLOW WILL BRING IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO START OFF FRIDAY. HOWEVER...STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE MAXIMUM DAYTIME
RADIATION...SO THE TEMP DROP WILL NOT BE THAT GREAT...STILL
MAINTAINING LOW TO MID 80S. PERHAPS MORE NOTICEABLE THAN THE SLIGHT
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE DECREASE IN HUMIDITY...AS LIGHT
WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PROMOTE LOWER RH VALUES.
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED...EXPECT TEMPS TO GRADUALLY WARM A DEGREE OR TWO EACH
DAY...STAYING IN THE MID 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE...MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE OVERNIGHT WILL
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

MVFR LINGERS WHERE THE EARLY MORNING FOG AND STRATUS HAS LIFTED
INTO CU. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE LIFTING...WITH VFR EXPECTED OUTSIDE
OF ANY SHRA AND TSRA BY 20Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA AND TSRA
SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE FIRST 4 HOURS OF THE PERIOD...WITH A
POSSIBLE LULL IN ACTIVITY BEFORE MORE SCATTERED SHRA AND TSRA AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION AFTER 0Z. ANY HEAVIER SHRA OR
TSRA WILL BRING BRIEF IFR VIS AND OR CIGS. BEHIND THE FRONT...GENERALLY
AFTER THE 4Z TO 6Z PERIOD...ANOTHER PERIOD OF IFR TO MVFR IS
POSSIBLE. THESE LOW CIGS WOULD LIFT BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KJKL 291725 AAC
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
125 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 115 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY LIFT AND MIX INTO CU. OVERALL...A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS
IS IN PLACE...AND A COUPLE OF STRAY SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL KY. THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP...BUT
THESE MAY WANE DURING THE EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE AREA DURING THE LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. OVERALL... HOURLY GRIDS WERE FRESHENED UP BASED ON RECENT
OBSERVATIONS...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL CHANGE ATTM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1111 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE REGION IS IN THE WARM SECTOR AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. A WARM AND RATHER MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S. HOWEVER...THE AIRMASS IS NOT QUITE AS MOIST THROUGH THE
ENTIRE COLUMN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PART OF THE AREA
WITH PW THERE AROUND 1.6 INCHES. PW ACROSS THE WEST IS AROUND 1.8
TO 1.9 INCHES.

WITH DAYTIME HEATING...LOW CLOUDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY LIFT INTO CU
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA. THE AIRMASS SHOULD ALSO
DESTABILIZE WITH ML CAPES EXPECTED TO REACH THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
RANGE ACROSS THE WEST BY MID AFTERNOON. THE MOISTURE GRADIENT
ACROSS CENTRAL KY INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA MAY BE A FOCUS
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY. ALSO...THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ALONG THE VA BORDER THAT IS GETTING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ATTM AND
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING NEAR WHERE HEAVIER RAIN FELL ON TUESDAY MAY
ALSO BE POSSIBLE LOCATIONS FOR THE FIRST CELL DEVELOPMENT. SHEAR
IS RATHER WEAK TODAY...AND CELLS SHOULD MORE OR LESS PROPAGATE VIA
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION...AND POSSIBLE A
BROKEN LINE OF LINE SEGMENTS OF STORMS SHOULD NEAR THE REGION
AROUND SUNSET. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 805 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

MADE ONLY MINOR UPDATES FOR EARLY MORNING OBS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

ISOLATED SLOW MOVING SHOWERS HAVE PERSISTED DURING THE NIGHT IN
THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
THAT SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THIS
MORNING...BUT THE PROBABILITY AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION IS LOW.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS MORE PROBABLE
BY THIS AFTERNOON AS HEATING OCCURS. MOST OF THEM SHOULD DIE OUT
AGAIN IN THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR ALOFT AND A POST FRONTAL
INVERSION WILL PUT AN END TO ANY LINGERING SHOWERS...WITH MOST OF
THURSDAY BEING DRY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

WE WILL BE IN A POST FRONTAL REGIME TO START OFF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST AT 0Z FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE
HOLD THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER NRLY WINDS AT THE
SURFACE. MEANWHILE...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS HUDSON BAY...ROTATING AROUND THE BAY FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A LONGWAVE
TROUGHING PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND EASTERN
CONUS...CONTINUING THE NW FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. THIS NW FLOW WILL PROVIDE THE PERFECT SCENARIO FOR
SHORTWAVES TO TRACK SE ALONG THE TROUGH AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
HAVE HOLD AT THE SURFACE. THE QUESTION THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED IS
WHETHER OR NOT THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SWAY
THE IMPACT OF THESE SHORTWAVES AS THEY MOVE THROUGH EASTERN KY.

THE FIRST OF THESE SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. AS OF 0Z FRIDAY...THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
POSED TO BE LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION...AND WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE
SHORTWAVE NEARS. HOWEVER...THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE MOISTURE DEPRIVED
AND FAIRLY WEAK. LATEST MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME DISAGREEMENT
ON IF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN DEEP MOISTURE AS IT
MOVES INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. JUST LIKE YESTERDAY...THE GFS IS
POINTING TOWARDS A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS MAKING IT INTO THE
CWA...WHILE THE ECMWF IS KEEPING US DRY. MEANWHILE...DESPITE THE
PLAN VIEW GFS OUTPUT...THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE ONLY
POINTING AT A NARROW WINDOW OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH ABUNDANT
DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE. THIS IS MORE CHARACTERISTIC OF SOME SCT
TO BKN CLOUD COVER RATHER THAN RAINFALL. AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE
TO TREND TOWARD THE DRIER ECMWF.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AS WE FINISH OUT THE 7 DAY FORECAST. GRANTED...THIS
IS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST...BUT MODELS ARE IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SO CONFIDENCE IS A BIT HIGHER. THIS
PARTICULAR UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIGGING AS IT
NEARS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION...LENDING TO A STRONGER SURFACE
BOUNDARY. IF THIS PROVES TO BE TRUE...WE MAY SEE OUR NEXT BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...

THE POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS AND DRIER NW FLOW WILL BRING IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO START OFF FRIDAY. HOWEVER...STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE MAXIMUM DAYTIME
RADIATION...SO THE TEMP DROP WILL NOT BE THAT GREAT...STILL
MAINTAINING LOW TO MID 80S. PERHAPS MORE NOTICEABLE THAN THE SLIGHT
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE DECREASE IN HUMIDITY...AS LIGHT
WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PROMOTE LOWER RH VALUES.
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED...EXPECT TEMPS TO GRADUALLY WARM A DEGREE OR TWO EACH
DAY...STAYING IN THE MID 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE...MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE OVERNIGHT WILL
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

MVFR LINGERS WHERE THE EARLY MORNING FOG AND STRATUS HAS LIFTED
INTO CU. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE LIFTING...WITH VFR EXPECTED OUTSIDE
OF ANY SHRA AND TSRA BY 20Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA AND TSRA
SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE FIRST 4 HOURS OF THE PERIOD...WITH A
POSSIBLE LULL IN ACTIVITY BEFORE MORE SCATTERED SHRA AND TSRA AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION AFTER 0Z. ANY HEAVIER SHRA OR
TSRA WILL BRING BRIEF IFR VIS AND OR CIGS. BEHIND THE FRONT...GENERALLY
AFTER THE 4Z TO 6Z PERIOD...ANOTHER PERIOD OF IFR TO MVFR IS
POSSIBLE. THESE LOW CIGS WOULD LIFT BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...JP





000
FXUS63 KJKL 291725 AAC
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
125 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 115 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY LIFT AND MIX INTO CU. OVERALL...A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS
IS IN PLACE...AND A COUPLE OF STRAY SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL KY. THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP...BUT
THESE MAY WANE DURING THE EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE AREA DURING THE LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. OVERALL... HOURLY GRIDS WERE FRESHENED UP BASED ON RECENT
OBSERVATIONS...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL CHANGE ATTM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1111 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE REGION IS IN THE WARM SECTOR AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. A WARM AND RATHER MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S. HOWEVER...THE AIRMASS IS NOT QUITE AS MOIST THROUGH THE
ENTIRE COLUMN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PART OF THE AREA
WITH PW THERE AROUND 1.6 INCHES. PW ACROSS THE WEST IS AROUND 1.8
TO 1.9 INCHES.

WITH DAYTIME HEATING...LOW CLOUDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY LIFT INTO CU
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA. THE AIRMASS SHOULD ALSO
DESTABILIZE WITH ML CAPES EXPECTED TO REACH THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
RANGE ACROSS THE WEST BY MID AFTERNOON. THE MOISTURE GRADIENT
ACROSS CENTRAL KY INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA MAY BE A FOCUS
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY. ALSO...THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ALONG THE VA BORDER THAT IS GETTING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ATTM AND
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING NEAR WHERE HEAVIER RAIN FELL ON TUESDAY MAY
ALSO BE POSSIBLE LOCATIONS FOR THE FIRST CELL DEVELOPMENT. SHEAR
IS RATHER WEAK TODAY...AND CELLS SHOULD MORE OR LESS PROPAGATE VIA
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION...AND POSSIBLE A
BROKEN LINE OF LINE SEGMENTS OF STORMS SHOULD NEAR THE REGION
AROUND SUNSET. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 805 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

MADE ONLY MINOR UPDATES FOR EARLY MORNING OBS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

ISOLATED SLOW MOVING SHOWERS HAVE PERSISTED DURING THE NIGHT IN
THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
THAT SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THIS
MORNING...BUT THE PROBABILITY AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION IS LOW.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS MORE PROBABLE
BY THIS AFTERNOON AS HEATING OCCURS. MOST OF THEM SHOULD DIE OUT
AGAIN IN THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR ALOFT AND A POST FRONTAL
INVERSION WILL PUT AN END TO ANY LINGERING SHOWERS...WITH MOST OF
THURSDAY BEING DRY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

WE WILL BE IN A POST FRONTAL REGIME TO START OFF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST AT 0Z FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE
HOLD THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER NRLY WINDS AT THE
SURFACE. MEANWHILE...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS HUDSON BAY...ROTATING AROUND THE BAY FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A LONGWAVE
TROUGHING PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND EASTERN
CONUS...CONTINUING THE NW FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. THIS NW FLOW WILL PROVIDE THE PERFECT SCENARIO FOR
SHORTWAVES TO TRACK SE ALONG THE TROUGH AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
HAVE HOLD AT THE SURFACE. THE QUESTION THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED IS
WHETHER OR NOT THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SWAY
THE IMPACT OF THESE SHORTWAVES AS THEY MOVE THROUGH EASTERN KY.

THE FIRST OF THESE SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. AS OF 0Z FRIDAY...THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
POSED TO BE LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION...AND WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE
SHORTWAVE NEARS. HOWEVER...THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE MOISTURE DEPRIVED
AND FAIRLY WEAK. LATEST MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME DISAGREEMENT
ON IF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN DEEP MOISTURE AS IT
MOVES INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. JUST LIKE YESTERDAY...THE GFS IS
POINTING TOWARDS A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS MAKING IT INTO THE
CWA...WHILE THE ECMWF IS KEEPING US DRY. MEANWHILE...DESPITE THE
PLAN VIEW GFS OUTPUT...THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE ONLY
POINTING AT A NARROW WINDOW OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH ABUNDANT
DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE. THIS IS MORE CHARACTERISTIC OF SOME SCT
TO BKN CLOUD COVER RATHER THAN RAINFALL. AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE
TO TREND TOWARD THE DRIER ECMWF.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AS WE FINISH OUT THE 7 DAY FORECAST. GRANTED...THIS
IS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST...BUT MODELS ARE IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SO CONFIDENCE IS A BIT HIGHER. THIS
PARTICULAR UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIGGING AS IT
NEARS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION...LENDING TO A STRONGER SURFACE
BOUNDARY. IF THIS PROVES TO BE TRUE...WE MAY SEE OUR NEXT BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...

THE POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS AND DRIER NW FLOW WILL BRING IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO START OFF FRIDAY. HOWEVER...STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE MAXIMUM DAYTIME
RADIATION...SO THE TEMP DROP WILL NOT BE THAT GREAT...STILL
MAINTAINING LOW TO MID 80S. PERHAPS MORE NOTICEABLE THAN THE SLIGHT
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE DECREASE IN HUMIDITY...AS LIGHT
WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PROMOTE LOWER RH VALUES.
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED...EXPECT TEMPS TO GRADUALLY WARM A DEGREE OR TWO EACH
DAY...STAYING IN THE MID 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE...MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE OVERNIGHT WILL
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

MVFR LINGERS WHERE THE EARLY MORNING FOG AND STRATUS HAS LIFTED
INTO CU. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE LIFTING...WITH VFR EXPECTED OUTSIDE
OF ANY SHRA AND TSRA BY 20Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA AND TSRA
SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE FIRST 4 HOURS OF THE PERIOD...WITH A
POSSIBLE LULL IN ACTIVITY BEFORE MORE SCATTERED SHRA AND TSRA AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION AFTER 0Z. ANY HEAVIER SHRA OR
TSRA WILL BRING BRIEF IFR VIS AND OR CIGS. BEHIND THE FRONT...GENERALLY
AFTER THE 4Z TO 6Z PERIOD...ANOTHER PERIOD OF IFR TO MVFR IS
POSSIBLE. THESE LOW CIGS WOULD LIFT BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...JP





000
FXUS63 KJKL 291725 AAC
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
125 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 115 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY LIFT AND MIX INTO CU. OVERALL...A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS
IS IN PLACE...AND A COUPLE OF STRAY SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL KY. THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP...BUT
THESE MAY WANE DURING THE EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE AREA DURING THE LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. OVERALL... HOURLY GRIDS WERE FRESHENED UP BASED ON RECENT
OBSERVATIONS...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL CHANGE ATTM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1111 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE REGION IS IN THE WARM SECTOR AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. A WARM AND RATHER MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S. HOWEVER...THE AIRMASS IS NOT QUITE AS MOIST THROUGH THE
ENTIRE COLUMN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PART OF THE AREA
WITH PW THERE AROUND 1.6 INCHES. PW ACROSS THE WEST IS AROUND 1.8
TO 1.9 INCHES.

WITH DAYTIME HEATING...LOW CLOUDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY LIFT INTO CU
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA. THE AIRMASS SHOULD ALSO
DESTABILIZE WITH ML CAPES EXPECTED TO REACH THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
RANGE ACROSS THE WEST BY MID AFTERNOON. THE MOISTURE GRADIENT
ACROSS CENTRAL KY INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA MAY BE A FOCUS
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY. ALSO...THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ALONG THE VA BORDER THAT IS GETTING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ATTM AND
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING NEAR WHERE HEAVIER RAIN FELL ON TUESDAY MAY
ALSO BE POSSIBLE LOCATIONS FOR THE FIRST CELL DEVELOPMENT. SHEAR
IS RATHER WEAK TODAY...AND CELLS SHOULD MORE OR LESS PROPAGATE VIA
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION...AND POSSIBLE A
BROKEN LINE OF LINE SEGMENTS OF STORMS SHOULD NEAR THE REGION
AROUND SUNSET. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 805 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

MADE ONLY MINOR UPDATES FOR EARLY MORNING OBS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

ISOLATED SLOW MOVING SHOWERS HAVE PERSISTED DURING THE NIGHT IN
THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
THAT SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THIS
MORNING...BUT THE PROBABILITY AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION IS LOW.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS MORE PROBABLE
BY THIS AFTERNOON AS HEATING OCCURS. MOST OF THEM SHOULD DIE OUT
AGAIN IN THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR ALOFT AND A POST FRONTAL
INVERSION WILL PUT AN END TO ANY LINGERING SHOWERS...WITH MOST OF
THURSDAY BEING DRY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

WE WILL BE IN A POST FRONTAL REGIME TO START OFF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST AT 0Z FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE
HOLD THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER NRLY WINDS AT THE
SURFACE. MEANWHILE...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS HUDSON BAY...ROTATING AROUND THE BAY FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A LONGWAVE
TROUGHING PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND EASTERN
CONUS...CONTINUING THE NW FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. THIS NW FLOW WILL PROVIDE THE PERFECT SCENARIO FOR
SHORTWAVES TO TRACK SE ALONG THE TROUGH AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
HAVE HOLD AT THE SURFACE. THE QUESTION THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED IS
WHETHER OR NOT THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SWAY
THE IMPACT OF THESE SHORTWAVES AS THEY MOVE THROUGH EASTERN KY.

THE FIRST OF THESE SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. AS OF 0Z FRIDAY...THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
POSED TO BE LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION...AND WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE
SHORTWAVE NEARS. HOWEVER...THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE MOISTURE DEPRIVED
AND FAIRLY WEAK. LATEST MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME DISAGREEMENT
ON IF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN DEEP MOISTURE AS IT
MOVES INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. JUST LIKE YESTERDAY...THE GFS IS
POINTING TOWARDS A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS MAKING IT INTO THE
CWA...WHILE THE ECMWF IS KEEPING US DRY. MEANWHILE...DESPITE THE
PLAN VIEW GFS OUTPUT...THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE ONLY
POINTING AT A NARROW WINDOW OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH ABUNDANT
DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE. THIS IS MORE CHARACTERISTIC OF SOME SCT
TO BKN CLOUD COVER RATHER THAN RAINFALL. AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE
TO TREND TOWARD THE DRIER ECMWF.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AS WE FINISH OUT THE 7 DAY FORECAST. GRANTED...THIS
IS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST...BUT MODELS ARE IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SO CONFIDENCE IS A BIT HIGHER. THIS
PARTICULAR UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIGGING AS IT
NEARS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION...LENDING TO A STRONGER SURFACE
BOUNDARY. IF THIS PROVES TO BE TRUE...WE MAY SEE OUR NEXT BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...

THE POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS AND DRIER NW FLOW WILL BRING IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO START OFF FRIDAY. HOWEVER...STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE MAXIMUM DAYTIME
RADIATION...SO THE TEMP DROP WILL NOT BE THAT GREAT...STILL
MAINTAINING LOW TO MID 80S. PERHAPS MORE NOTICEABLE THAN THE SLIGHT
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE DECREASE IN HUMIDITY...AS LIGHT
WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PROMOTE LOWER RH VALUES.
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED...EXPECT TEMPS TO GRADUALLY WARM A DEGREE OR TWO EACH
DAY...STAYING IN THE MID 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE...MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE OVERNIGHT WILL
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

MVFR LINGERS WHERE THE EARLY MORNING FOG AND STRATUS HAS LIFTED
INTO CU. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE LIFTING...WITH VFR EXPECTED OUTSIDE
OF ANY SHRA AND TSRA BY 20Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA AND TSRA
SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE FIRST 4 HOURS OF THE PERIOD...WITH A
POSSIBLE LULL IN ACTIVITY BEFORE MORE SCATTERED SHRA AND TSRA AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION AFTER 0Z. ANY HEAVIER SHRA OR
TSRA WILL BRING BRIEF IFR VIS AND OR CIGS. BEHIND THE FRONT...GENERALLY
AFTER THE 4Z TO 6Z PERIOD...ANOTHER PERIOD OF IFR TO MVFR IS
POSSIBLE. THESE LOW CIGS WOULD LIFT BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KJKL 291511 AAB
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1111 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1111 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE REGION IS IN THE WARM SECTOR AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. A WARM AND RATHER MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S. HOWEVER...THE AIRMASS IS NOT QUITE AS MOIST THROUGH THE
ENTIRE COLUMN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PART OF THE AREA
WITH PW THERE AROUND 1.6 INCHES. PW ACROSS THE WEST IS AROUND 1.8
TO 1.9 INCHES.

WITH DAYTIME HEATING...LOW CLOUDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY LIFT INTO CU
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA. THE AIRMASS SHOULD ALSO
DESTABILIZE WITH ML CAPES EXPECTED TO REACH THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
RANGE ACROSS THE WEST BY MID AFTERNOON. THE MOISTURE GRADIENT
ACROSS CENTRAL KY INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA MAY BE A FOCUS
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY. ALSO...THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ALONG THE VA BORDER THAT IS GETTING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ATTM AND
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING NEAR WHERE HEAVIER RAIN FELL ON TUESDAY MAY
ALSO BE POSSIBLE LOCATIONS FOR THE FIRST CELL DEVELOPMENT. SHEAR
IS RATHER WEAK TODAY...AND CELLS SHOULD MORE OR LESS PROPAGATE VIA
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION...AND POSSIBLE A
BROKEN LINE OF LINE SEGMENTS OF STORMS SHOULD NEAR THE REGION
AROUND SUNSET. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 805 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

MADE ONLY MINOR UPDATES FOR EARLY MORNING OBS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

ISOLATED SLOW MOVING SHOWERS HAVE PERSISTED DURING THE NIGHT IN
THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
THAT SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THIS
MORNING...BUT THE PROBABILITY AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION IS LOW.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS MORE PROBABLE
BY THIS AFTERNOON AS HEATING OCCURS. MOST OF THEM SHOULD DIE OUT
AGAIN IN THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR ALOFT AND A POST FRONTAL
INVERSION WILL PUT AN END TO ANY LINGERING SHOWERS...WITH MOST OF
THURSDAY BEING DRY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

WE WILL BE IN A POST FRONTAL REGIME TO START OFF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST AT 0Z FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE
HOLD THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER NRLY WINDS AT THE
SURFACE. MEANWHILE...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS HUDSON BAY...ROTATING AROUND THE BAY FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A LONGWAVE TROUGHING PATTERN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND EASTERN CONUS...CONTINUING THE NW
FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS NW FLOW WILL PROVIDE
THE PERFECT SCENARIO FOR SHORTWAVES TO TRACK SE ALONG THE TROUGH AND
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.
HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE HOLD AT THE SURFACE. THE QUESTION
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED IS WHETHER OR NOT THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO SWAY THE IMPACT OF THESE SHORTWAVES AS THEY MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN KY.

THE FIRST OF THESE SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. AS OF 0Z FRIDAY...THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
POSED TO BE LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION...AND WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE
SHORTWAVE NEARS. HOWEVER...THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE MOISTURE DEPRIVED
AND FAIRLY WEAK. LATEST MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME DISAGREEMENT
ON IF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN PRECIPITAL MOISTURE AS
IT MOVES INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. JUST LIKE YESTERDAY...THE GFS
IS POINTING TOWARDS A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS MAKING IT INTO THE
CWA...WHILE THE ECMWF IS KEEPING US DRY. MEANWHILE...DESPITE THE
PLAN VIEW GFS OUTPUT...THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE ONLY POINTING
AT A NARROW WINDOW OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH ABUNDANT DRY AIR NEAR
THE SURFACE. THIS IS MORE CHARACTERISTIC OF SOME SCT TO BKN CLOUD
COVER RATHER THAN RAINFALL. AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD
THE DRIER ECMWF.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AS WE FINISH OUT THE 7 DAY FORECAST. GRANTED...THIS
IS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST...BUT MODELS ARE IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SO CONFIDENCE IS A BIT HIGHER. THIS
PARTICULAR UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIGGING AS IT
NEARS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION...LENDING TO A STRONGER SURFACE
BOUNDARY. IF THIS PROVES TO BE TRUE...WE MAY SEE OUR NEXT BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...

THE POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS AND DRIER NW FLOW WILL BRING IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO START OFF FRIDAY. HOWEVER...STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE MAXIMUM DAYTIME
RADIATION...SO THE TEMP DROP WILL NOT BE THAT GREAT...STILL
MAINTAINING LOW TO MID 80S. PERHAPS MORE NOTICEABLE THAN THE SLIGHT
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE DECREASE IN HUMIDITY...AS LIGHT
WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PROMOTE LOWER RH VALUES.
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED...EXPECT TEMPS TO GRADUALLY WARM A DEGREE OR TWO EACH
DAY...STAYING IN THE MID 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE...MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE OVERNIGHT WILL
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 805 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

CONDITIONS WERE MOSTLY IFR OR WORSE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.
IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR DURING THE MORNING...WITH GENERALLY VFR
ARRIVING EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... THE DAYTIME WARMING
SHOULD ALSO LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THEY WILL BRING LOCALIZED IFR. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN LARGELY DIMINISH IN THE
EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...HAL





000
FXUS63 KJKL 291511 AAB
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1111 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1111 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE REGION IS IN THE WARM SECTOR AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. A WARM AND RATHER MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S. HOWEVER...THE AIRMASS IS NOT QUITE AS MOIST THROUGH THE
ENTIRE COLUMN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PART OF THE AREA
WITH PW THERE AROUND 1.6 INCHES. PW ACROSS THE WEST IS AROUND 1.8
TO 1.9 INCHES.

WITH DAYTIME HEATING...LOW CLOUDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY LIFT INTO CU
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA. THE AIRMASS SHOULD ALSO
DESTABILIZE WITH ML CAPES EXPECTED TO REACH THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
RANGE ACROSS THE WEST BY MID AFTERNOON. THE MOISTURE GRADIENT
ACROSS CENTRAL KY INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA MAY BE A FOCUS
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY. ALSO...THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ALONG THE VA BORDER THAT IS GETTING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ATTM AND
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING NEAR WHERE HEAVIER RAIN FELL ON TUESDAY MAY
ALSO BE POSSIBLE LOCATIONS FOR THE FIRST CELL DEVELOPMENT. SHEAR
IS RATHER WEAK TODAY...AND CELLS SHOULD MORE OR LESS PROPAGATE VIA
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION...AND POSSIBLE A
BROKEN LINE OF LINE SEGMENTS OF STORMS SHOULD NEAR THE REGION
AROUND SUNSET. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 805 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

MADE ONLY MINOR UPDATES FOR EARLY MORNING OBS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

ISOLATED SLOW MOVING SHOWERS HAVE PERSISTED DURING THE NIGHT IN
THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
THAT SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THIS
MORNING...BUT THE PROBABILITY AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION IS LOW.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS MORE PROBABLE
BY THIS AFTERNOON AS HEATING OCCURS. MOST OF THEM SHOULD DIE OUT
AGAIN IN THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR ALOFT AND A POST FRONTAL
INVERSION WILL PUT AN END TO ANY LINGERING SHOWERS...WITH MOST OF
THURSDAY BEING DRY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

WE WILL BE IN A POST FRONTAL REGIME TO START OFF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST AT 0Z FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE
HOLD THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER NRLY WINDS AT THE
SURFACE. MEANWHILE...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS HUDSON BAY...ROTATING AROUND THE BAY FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A LONGWAVE TROUGHING PATTERN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND EASTERN CONUS...CONTINUING THE NW
FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS NW FLOW WILL PROVIDE
THE PERFECT SCENARIO FOR SHORTWAVES TO TRACK SE ALONG THE TROUGH AND
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.
HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE HOLD AT THE SURFACE. THE QUESTION
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED IS WHETHER OR NOT THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO SWAY THE IMPACT OF THESE SHORTWAVES AS THEY MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN KY.

THE FIRST OF THESE SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. AS OF 0Z FRIDAY...THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
POSED TO BE LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION...AND WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE
SHORTWAVE NEARS. HOWEVER...THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE MOISTURE DEPRIVED
AND FAIRLY WEAK. LATEST MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME DISAGREEMENT
ON IF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN PRECIPITAL MOISTURE AS
IT MOVES INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. JUST LIKE YESTERDAY...THE GFS
IS POINTING TOWARDS A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS MAKING IT INTO THE
CWA...WHILE THE ECMWF IS KEEPING US DRY. MEANWHILE...DESPITE THE
PLAN VIEW GFS OUTPUT...THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE ONLY POINTING
AT A NARROW WINDOW OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH ABUNDANT DRY AIR NEAR
THE SURFACE. THIS IS MORE CHARACTERISTIC OF SOME SCT TO BKN CLOUD
COVER RATHER THAN RAINFALL. AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD
THE DRIER ECMWF.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AS WE FINISH OUT THE 7 DAY FORECAST. GRANTED...THIS
IS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST...BUT MODELS ARE IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SO CONFIDENCE IS A BIT HIGHER. THIS
PARTICULAR UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIGGING AS IT
NEARS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION...LENDING TO A STRONGER SURFACE
BOUNDARY. IF THIS PROVES TO BE TRUE...WE MAY SEE OUR NEXT BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...

THE POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS AND DRIER NW FLOW WILL BRING IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO START OFF FRIDAY. HOWEVER...STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE MAXIMUM DAYTIME
RADIATION...SO THE TEMP DROP WILL NOT BE THAT GREAT...STILL
MAINTAINING LOW TO MID 80S. PERHAPS MORE NOTICEABLE THAN THE SLIGHT
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE DECREASE IN HUMIDITY...AS LIGHT
WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PROMOTE LOWER RH VALUES.
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED...EXPECT TEMPS TO GRADUALLY WARM A DEGREE OR TWO EACH
DAY...STAYING IN THE MID 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE...MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE OVERNIGHT WILL
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 805 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

CONDITIONS WERE MOSTLY IFR OR WORSE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.
IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR DURING THE MORNING...WITH GENERALLY VFR
ARRIVING EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... THE DAYTIME WARMING
SHOULD ALSO LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THEY WILL BRING LOCALIZED IFR. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN LARGELY DIMINISH IN THE
EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...HAL




000
FXUS63 KJKL 291205
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
805 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 805 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

MADE ONLY MINOR UPDATES FOR EARLY MORNING OBS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

ISOLATED SLOW MOVING SHOWERS HAVE PERSISTED DURING THE NIGHT IN
THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
THAT SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THIS
MORNING...BUT THE PROBABILITY AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION IS LOW.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS MORE PROBABLE
BY THIS AFTERNOON AS HEATING OCCURS. MOST OF THEM SHOULD DIE OUT
AGAIN IN THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR ALOFT AND A POST FRONTAL
INVERSION WILL PUT AN END TO ANY LINGERING SHOWERS...WITH MOST OF
THURSDAY BEING DRY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

WE WILL BE IN A POST FRONTAL REGIME TO START OFF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST AT 0Z FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE
HOLD THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER NRLY WINDS AT THE
SURFACE. MEANWHILE...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS HUDSON BAY...ROTATING AROUND THE BAY FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A LONGWAVE TROUGHING PATTERN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND EASTERN CONUS...CONTINUING THE NW
FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS NW FLOW WILL PROVIDE
THE PERFECT SCENARIO FOR SHORTWAVES TO TRACK SE ALONG THE TROUGH AND
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.
HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE HOLD AT THE SURFACE. THE QUESTION
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED IS WHETHER OR NOT THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO SWAY THE IMPACT OF THESE SHORTWAVES AS THEY MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN KY.

THE FIRST OF THESE SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. AS OF 0Z FRIDAY...THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
POSED TO BE LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION...AND WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE
SHORTWAVE NEARS. HOWEVER...THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE MOISTURE DEPRIVED
AND FAIRLY WEAK. LATEST MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME DISAGREEMENT
ON IF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN PRECIPITAL MOISTURE AS
IT MOVES INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. JUST LIKE YESTERDAY...THE GFS
IS POINTING TOWARDS A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS MAKING IT INTO THE
CWA...WHILE THE ECMWF IS KEEPING US DRY. MEANWHILE...DESPITE THE
PLAN VIEW GFS OUTPUT...THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE ONLY POINTING
AT A NARROW WINDOW OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH ABUNDANT DRY AIR NEAR
THE SURFACE. THIS IS MORE CHARACTERISTIC OF SOME SCT TO BKN CLOUD
COVER RATHER THAN RAINFALL. AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD
THE DRIER ECMWF.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AS WE FINISH OUT THE 7 DAY FORECAST. GRANTED...THIS
IS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST...BUT MODELS ARE IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SO CONFIDENCE IS A BIT HIGHER. THIS
PARTICULAR UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIGGING AS IT
NEARS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION...LENDING TO A STRONGER SURFACE
BOUNDARY. IF THIS PROVES TO BE TRUE...WE MAY SEE OUR NEXT BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...

THE POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS AND DRIER NW FLOW WILL BRING IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO START OFF FRIDAY. HOWEVER...STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE MAXIMUM DAYTIME
RADIATION...SO THE TEMP DROP WILL NOT BE THAT GREAT...STILL
MAINTAINING LOW TO MID 80S. PERHAPS MORE NOTICEABLE THAN THE SLIGHT
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE DECREASE IN HUMIDITY...AS LIGHT
WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PROMOTE LOWER RH VALUES.
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED...EXPECT TEMPS TO GRADUALLY WARM A DEGREE OR TWO EACH
DAY...STAYING IN THE MID 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE...MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE OVERNIGHT WILL
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 805 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

CONDITIONS WERE MOSTLY IFR OR WORSE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.
IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR DURING THE MORNING...WITH GENERALLY VFR
ARRIVING EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... THE DAYTIME WARMING
SHOULD ALSO LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THEY WILL BRING LOCALIZED IFR. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN LARGELY DIMINISH IN THE
EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...HAL




000
FXUS63 KJKL 291205
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
805 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 805 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

MADE ONLY MINOR UPDATES FOR EARLY MORNING OBS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

ISOLATED SLOW MOVING SHOWERS HAVE PERSISTED DURING THE NIGHT IN
THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
THAT SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THIS
MORNING...BUT THE PROBABILITY AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION IS LOW.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS MORE PROBABLE
BY THIS AFTERNOON AS HEATING OCCURS. MOST OF THEM SHOULD DIE OUT
AGAIN IN THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR ALOFT AND A POST FRONTAL
INVERSION WILL PUT AN END TO ANY LINGERING SHOWERS...WITH MOST OF
THURSDAY BEING DRY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

WE WILL BE IN A POST FRONTAL REGIME TO START OFF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST AT 0Z FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE
HOLD THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER NRLY WINDS AT THE
SURFACE. MEANWHILE...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS HUDSON BAY...ROTATING AROUND THE BAY FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A LONGWAVE TROUGHING PATTERN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND EASTERN CONUS...CONTINUING THE NW
FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS NW FLOW WILL PROVIDE
THE PERFECT SCENARIO FOR SHORTWAVES TO TRACK SE ALONG THE TROUGH AND
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.
HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE HOLD AT THE SURFACE. THE QUESTION
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED IS WHETHER OR NOT THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO SWAY THE IMPACT OF THESE SHORTWAVES AS THEY MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN KY.

THE FIRST OF THESE SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. AS OF 0Z FRIDAY...THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
POSED TO BE LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION...AND WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE
SHORTWAVE NEARS. HOWEVER...THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE MOISTURE DEPRIVED
AND FAIRLY WEAK. LATEST MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME DISAGREEMENT
ON IF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN PRECIPITAL MOISTURE AS
IT MOVES INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. JUST LIKE YESTERDAY...THE GFS
IS POINTING TOWARDS A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS MAKING IT INTO THE
CWA...WHILE THE ECMWF IS KEEPING US DRY. MEANWHILE...DESPITE THE
PLAN VIEW GFS OUTPUT...THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE ONLY POINTING
AT A NARROW WINDOW OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH ABUNDANT DRY AIR NEAR
THE SURFACE. THIS IS MORE CHARACTERISTIC OF SOME SCT TO BKN CLOUD
COVER RATHER THAN RAINFALL. AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD
THE DRIER ECMWF.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AS WE FINISH OUT THE 7 DAY FORECAST. GRANTED...THIS
IS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST...BUT MODELS ARE IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SO CONFIDENCE IS A BIT HIGHER. THIS
PARTICULAR UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIGGING AS IT
NEARS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION...LENDING TO A STRONGER SURFACE
BOUNDARY. IF THIS PROVES TO BE TRUE...WE MAY SEE OUR NEXT BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...

THE POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS AND DRIER NW FLOW WILL BRING IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO START OFF FRIDAY. HOWEVER...STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE MAXIMUM DAYTIME
RADIATION...SO THE TEMP DROP WILL NOT BE THAT GREAT...STILL
MAINTAINING LOW TO MID 80S. PERHAPS MORE NOTICEABLE THAN THE SLIGHT
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE DECREASE IN HUMIDITY...AS LIGHT
WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PROMOTE LOWER RH VALUES.
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED...EXPECT TEMPS TO GRADUALLY WARM A DEGREE OR TWO EACH
DAY...STAYING IN THE MID 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE...MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE OVERNIGHT WILL
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 805 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

CONDITIONS WERE MOSTLY IFR OR WORSE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.
IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR DURING THE MORNING...WITH GENERALLY VFR
ARRIVING EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... THE DAYTIME WARMING
SHOULD ALSO LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THEY WILL BRING LOCALIZED IFR. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN LARGELY DIMINISH IN THE
EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...HAL




000
FXUS63 KJKL 291205
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
805 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 805 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

MADE ONLY MINOR UPDATES FOR EARLY MORNING OBS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

ISOLATED SLOW MOVING SHOWERS HAVE PERSISTED DURING THE NIGHT IN
THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
THAT SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THIS
MORNING...BUT THE PROBABILITY AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION IS LOW.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS MORE PROBABLE
BY THIS AFTERNOON AS HEATING OCCURS. MOST OF THEM SHOULD DIE OUT
AGAIN IN THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR ALOFT AND A POST FRONTAL
INVERSION WILL PUT AN END TO ANY LINGERING SHOWERS...WITH MOST OF
THURSDAY BEING DRY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

WE WILL BE IN A POST FRONTAL REGIME TO START OFF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST AT 0Z FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE
HOLD THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER NRLY WINDS AT THE
SURFACE. MEANWHILE...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS HUDSON BAY...ROTATING AROUND THE BAY FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A LONGWAVE TROUGHING PATTERN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND EASTERN CONUS...CONTINUING THE NW
FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS NW FLOW WILL PROVIDE
THE PERFECT SCENARIO FOR SHORTWAVES TO TRACK SE ALONG THE TROUGH AND
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.
HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE HOLD AT THE SURFACE. THE QUESTION
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED IS WHETHER OR NOT THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO SWAY THE IMPACT OF THESE SHORTWAVES AS THEY MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN KY.

THE FIRST OF THESE SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. AS OF 0Z FRIDAY...THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
POSED TO BE LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION...AND WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE
SHORTWAVE NEARS. HOWEVER...THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE MOISTURE DEPRIVED
AND FAIRLY WEAK. LATEST MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME DISAGREEMENT
ON IF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN PRECIPITAL MOISTURE AS
IT MOVES INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. JUST LIKE YESTERDAY...THE GFS
IS POINTING TOWARDS A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS MAKING IT INTO THE
CWA...WHILE THE ECMWF IS KEEPING US DRY. MEANWHILE...DESPITE THE
PLAN VIEW GFS OUTPUT...THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE ONLY POINTING
AT A NARROW WINDOW OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH ABUNDANT DRY AIR NEAR
THE SURFACE. THIS IS MORE CHARACTERISTIC OF SOME SCT TO BKN CLOUD
COVER RATHER THAN RAINFALL. AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD
THE DRIER ECMWF.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AS WE FINISH OUT THE 7 DAY FORECAST. GRANTED...THIS
IS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST...BUT MODELS ARE IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SO CONFIDENCE IS A BIT HIGHER. THIS
PARTICULAR UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIGGING AS IT
NEARS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION...LENDING TO A STRONGER SURFACE
BOUNDARY. IF THIS PROVES TO BE TRUE...WE MAY SEE OUR NEXT BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...

THE POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS AND DRIER NW FLOW WILL BRING IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO START OFF FRIDAY. HOWEVER...STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE MAXIMUM DAYTIME
RADIATION...SO THE TEMP DROP WILL NOT BE THAT GREAT...STILL
MAINTAINING LOW TO MID 80S. PERHAPS MORE NOTICEABLE THAN THE SLIGHT
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE DECREASE IN HUMIDITY...AS LIGHT
WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PROMOTE LOWER RH VALUES.
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED...EXPECT TEMPS TO GRADUALLY WARM A DEGREE OR TWO EACH
DAY...STAYING IN THE MID 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE...MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE OVERNIGHT WILL
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 805 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

CONDITIONS WERE MOSTLY IFR OR WORSE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.
IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR DURING THE MORNING...WITH GENERALLY VFR
ARRIVING EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... THE DAYTIME WARMING
SHOULD ALSO LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THEY WILL BRING LOCALIZED IFR. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN LARGELY DIMINISH IN THE
EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...HAL





000
FXUS63 KJKL 291205
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
805 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 805 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

MADE ONLY MINOR UPDATES FOR EARLY MORNING OBS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

ISOLATED SLOW MOVING SHOWERS HAVE PERSISTED DURING THE NIGHT IN
THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
THAT SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THIS
MORNING...BUT THE PROBABILITY AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION IS LOW.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS MORE PROBABLE
BY THIS AFTERNOON AS HEATING OCCURS. MOST OF THEM SHOULD DIE OUT
AGAIN IN THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR ALOFT AND A POST FRONTAL
INVERSION WILL PUT AN END TO ANY LINGERING SHOWERS...WITH MOST OF
THURSDAY BEING DRY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

WE WILL BE IN A POST FRONTAL REGIME TO START OFF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST AT 0Z FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE
HOLD THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER NRLY WINDS AT THE
SURFACE. MEANWHILE...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS HUDSON BAY...ROTATING AROUND THE BAY FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A LONGWAVE TROUGHING PATTERN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND EASTERN CONUS...CONTINUING THE NW
FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS NW FLOW WILL PROVIDE
THE PERFECT SCENARIO FOR SHORTWAVES TO TRACK SE ALONG THE TROUGH AND
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.
HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE HOLD AT THE SURFACE. THE QUESTION
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED IS WHETHER OR NOT THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO SWAY THE IMPACT OF THESE SHORTWAVES AS THEY MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN KY.

THE FIRST OF THESE SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. AS OF 0Z FRIDAY...THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
POSED TO BE LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION...AND WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE
SHORTWAVE NEARS. HOWEVER...THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE MOISTURE DEPRIVED
AND FAIRLY WEAK. LATEST MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME DISAGREEMENT
ON IF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN PRECIPITAL MOISTURE AS
IT MOVES INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. JUST LIKE YESTERDAY...THE GFS
IS POINTING TOWARDS A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS MAKING IT INTO THE
CWA...WHILE THE ECMWF IS KEEPING US DRY. MEANWHILE...DESPITE THE
PLAN VIEW GFS OUTPUT...THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE ONLY POINTING
AT A NARROW WINDOW OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH ABUNDANT DRY AIR NEAR
THE SURFACE. THIS IS MORE CHARACTERISTIC OF SOME SCT TO BKN CLOUD
COVER RATHER THAN RAINFALL. AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD
THE DRIER ECMWF.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AS WE FINISH OUT THE 7 DAY FORECAST. GRANTED...THIS
IS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST...BUT MODELS ARE IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SO CONFIDENCE IS A BIT HIGHER. THIS
PARTICULAR UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIGGING AS IT
NEARS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION...LENDING TO A STRONGER SURFACE
BOUNDARY. IF THIS PROVES TO BE TRUE...WE MAY SEE OUR NEXT BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...

THE POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS AND DRIER NW FLOW WILL BRING IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO START OFF FRIDAY. HOWEVER...STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE MAXIMUM DAYTIME
RADIATION...SO THE TEMP DROP WILL NOT BE THAT GREAT...STILL
MAINTAINING LOW TO MID 80S. PERHAPS MORE NOTICEABLE THAN THE SLIGHT
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE DECREASE IN HUMIDITY...AS LIGHT
WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PROMOTE LOWER RH VALUES.
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED...EXPECT TEMPS TO GRADUALLY WARM A DEGREE OR TWO EACH
DAY...STAYING IN THE MID 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE...MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE OVERNIGHT WILL
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 805 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

CONDITIONS WERE MOSTLY IFR OR WORSE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.
IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR DURING THE MORNING...WITH GENERALLY VFR
ARRIVING EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... THE DAYTIME WARMING
SHOULD ALSO LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THEY WILL BRING LOCALIZED IFR. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN LARGELY DIMINISH IN THE
EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...HAL





000
FXUS63 KJKL 290811
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
411 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

ISOLATED SLOW MOVING SHOWERS HAVE PERSISTED DURING THE NIGHT IN
THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
THAT SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THIS
MORNING...BUT THE PROBABILITY AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION IS LOW.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS MORE PROBABLE
BY THIS AFTERNOON AS HEATING OCCURS. MOST OF THEM SHOULD DIE OUT
AGAIN IN THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR ALOFT AND A POST FRONTAL
INVERSION WILL PUT AN END TO ANY LINGERING SHOWERS...WITH MOST OF
THURSDAY BEING DRY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

WE WILL BE IN A POST FRONTAL REGIME TO START OFF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST AT 0Z FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE
HOLD THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER NRLY WINDS AT THE
SURFACE. MEANWHILE...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS HUDSON BAY...ROTATING AROUND THE BAY FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A LONGWAVE TROUGHING PATTERN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND EASTERN CONUS...CONTINUING THE NW
FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS NW FLOW WILL PROVIDE
THE PERFECT SCENARIO FOR SHORTWAVES TO TRACK SE ALONG THE TROUGH AND
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.
HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE HOLD AT THE SURFACE. THE QUESTION
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED IS WHETHER OR NOT THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO SWAY THE IMPACT OF THESE SHORTWAVES AS THEY MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN KY.

THE FIRST OF THESE SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. AS OF 0Z FRIDAY...THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
POSED TO BE LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION...AND WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE
SHORTWAVE NEARS. HOWEVER...THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE MOISTURE DEPRIVED
AND FAIRLY WEAK. LATEST MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME DISAGREEMENT
ON IF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN PRECIPITAL MOISTURE AS
IT MOVES INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. JUST LIKE YESTERDAY...THE GFS
IS POINTING TOWARDS A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS MAKING IT INTO THE
CWA...WHILE THE ECMWF IS KEEPING US DRY. MEANWHILE...DESPITE THE
PLAN VIEW GFS OUTPUT...THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE ONLY POINTING
AT A NARROW WINDOW OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH ABUNDANT DRY AIR NEAR
THE SURFACE. THIS IS MORE CHARACTERISTIC OF SOME SCT TO BKN CLOUD
COVER RATHER THAN RAINFALL. AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD
THE DRIER ECMWF.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AS WE FINISH OUT THE 7 DAY FORECAST. GRANTED...THIS
IS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST...BUT MODELS ARE IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SO CONFIDENCE IS A BIT HIGHER. THIS
PARTICULAR UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIGGING AS IT
NEARS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION...LENDING TO A STRONGER SURFACE
BOUNDARY. IF THIS PROVES TO BE TRUE...WE MAY SEE OUR NEXT BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...

THE POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS AND DRIER NW FLOW WILL BRING IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO START OFF FRIDAY. HOWEVER...STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE MAXIMUM DAYTIME
RADIATION...SO THE TEMP DROP WILL NOT BE THAT GREAT...STILL
MAINTAINING LOW TO MID 80S. PERHAPS MORE NOTICEABLE THAN THE SLIGHT
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE DECREASE IN HUMIDITY...AS LIGHT
WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PROMOTE LOWER RH VALUES.
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED...EXPECT TEMPS TO GRADUALLY WARM A DEGREE OR TWO EACH
DAY...STAYING IN THE MID 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE...MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE OVERNIGHT WILL
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 209 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

CONDITIONS VARIED WIDELY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE
TREND WILL BE FOR WORSENING CONDITIONS...WITH A DESCENT TO LIFR
OR VLIFR EXPECTED FOR MOST PLACES BEFORE DAWN. THERE WERE STILL
SOME SLOW MOVING SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE STATE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A POTENTIAL FOR THEM THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...BUT WHERE AND WHEN THEY WILL DEVELOP IS TOO
UNCERTAIN TO FORECAST.

FOG AND ASSOCIATED LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT AND DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNRISE...GIVING WAY TO LARGELY VFR BY LATE MORNING. HOWEVER...
THE DAYTIME WARMING SHOULD ALSO LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON. THEY WILL BRING
LOCALIZED IFR. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN LARGELY
DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...HAL





000
FXUS63 KJKL 290811
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
411 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

ISOLATED SLOW MOVING SHOWERS HAVE PERSISTED DURING THE NIGHT IN
THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
THAT SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THIS
MORNING...BUT THE PROBABILITY AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION IS LOW.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS MORE PROBABLE
BY THIS AFTERNOON AS HEATING OCCURS. MOST OF THEM SHOULD DIE OUT
AGAIN IN THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR ALOFT AND A POST FRONTAL
INVERSION WILL PUT AN END TO ANY LINGERING SHOWERS...WITH MOST OF
THURSDAY BEING DRY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

WE WILL BE IN A POST FRONTAL REGIME TO START OFF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST AT 0Z FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE
HOLD THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER NRLY WINDS AT THE
SURFACE. MEANWHILE...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS HUDSON BAY...ROTATING AROUND THE BAY FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A LONGWAVE TROUGHING PATTERN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND EASTERN CONUS...CONTINUING THE NW
FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS NW FLOW WILL PROVIDE
THE PERFECT SCENARIO FOR SHORTWAVES TO TRACK SE ALONG THE TROUGH AND
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.
HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE HOLD AT THE SURFACE. THE QUESTION
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED IS WHETHER OR NOT THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO SWAY THE IMPACT OF THESE SHORTWAVES AS THEY MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN KY.

THE FIRST OF THESE SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. AS OF 0Z FRIDAY...THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
POSED TO BE LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION...AND WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE
SHORTWAVE NEARS. HOWEVER...THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE MOISTURE DEPRIVED
AND FAIRLY WEAK. LATEST MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME DISAGREEMENT
ON IF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN PRECIPITAL MOISTURE AS
IT MOVES INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. JUST LIKE YESTERDAY...THE GFS
IS POINTING TOWARDS A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS MAKING IT INTO THE
CWA...WHILE THE ECMWF IS KEEPING US DRY. MEANWHILE...DESPITE THE
PLAN VIEW GFS OUTPUT...THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE ONLY POINTING
AT A NARROW WINDOW OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH ABUNDANT DRY AIR NEAR
THE SURFACE. THIS IS MORE CHARACTERISTIC OF SOME SCT TO BKN CLOUD
COVER RATHER THAN RAINFALL. AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD
THE DRIER ECMWF.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AS WE FINISH OUT THE 7 DAY FORECAST. GRANTED...THIS
IS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST...BUT MODELS ARE IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SO CONFIDENCE IS A BIT HIGHER. THIS
PARTICULAR UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIGGING AS IT
NEARS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION...LENDING TO A STRONGER SURFACE
BOUNDARY. IF THIS PROVES TO BE TRUE...WE MAY SEE OUR NEXT BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...

THE POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS AND DRIER NW FLOW WILL BRING IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO START OFF FRIDAY. HOWEVER...STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE MAXIMUM DAYTIME
RADIATION...SO THE TEMP DROP WILL NOT BE THAT GREAT...STILL
MAINTAINING LOW TO MID 80S. PERHAPS MORE NOTICEABLE THAN THE SLIGHT
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE DECREASE IN HUMIDITY...AS LIGHT
WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PROMOTE LOWER RH VALUES.
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED...EXPECT TEMPS TO GRADUALLY WARM A DEGREE OR TWO EACH
DAY...STAYING IN THE MID 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE...MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE OVERNIGHT WILL
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 209 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

CONDITIONS VARIED WIDELY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE
TREND WILL BE FOR WORSENING CONDITIONS...WITH A DESCENT TO LIFR
OR VLIFR EXPECTED FOR MOST PLACES BEFORE DAWN. THERE WERE STILL
SOME SLOW MOVING SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE STATE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A POTENTIAL FOR THEM THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...BUT WHERE AND WHEN THEY WILL DEVELOP IS TOO
UNCERTAIN TO FORECAST.

FOG AND ASSOCIATED LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT AND DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNRISE...GIVING WAY TO LARGELY VFR BY LATE MORNING. HOWEVER...
THE DAYTIME WARMING SHOULD ALSO LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON. THEY WILL BRING
LOCALIZED IFR. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN LARGELY
DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...HAL




000
FXUS63 KJKL 290800
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
400 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

ISOLATED SLOW MOVING SHOWERS HAVE PERSISTED DURING THE NIGHT IN
THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING...BUT THE PROBABILITY AT ANY
GIVEN LOCATION IS LOW. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS MORE LIKELY BY
THIS AFTERNOON AS HEATING OCCURS. IT WILL LIKELY DIE OUT AGAIN IN
THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE ALOFT
BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND RESULT IN DRIER WEATHER FOR THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

WE WILL BE IN A POST FRONTAL REGIME TO START OFF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST AT 0Z FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE
HOLD THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER NRLY WINDS AT THE
SURFACE. MEANWHILE...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS HUDSON BAY...ROTATING AROUND THE BAY FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A LONGWAVE TROUGHING PATTERN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND EASTERN CONUS...CONTINUING THE NW
FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS NW FLOW WILL PROVIDE
THE PERFECT SCENARIO FOR SHORTWAVES TO TRACK SE ALONG THE TROUGH AND
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.
HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE HOLD AT THE SURFACE. THE QUESTION
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED IS WHETHER OR NOT THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO SWAY THE IMPACT OF THESE SHORTWAVES AS THEY MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN KY.

THE FIRST OF THESE SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. AS OF 0Z FRIDAY...THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
POSED TO BE LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION...AND WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE
SHORTWAVE NEARS. HOWEVER...THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE MOISTURE DEPRIVED
AND FAIRLY WEAK. LATEST MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME DISAGREEMENT
ON IF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN PRECIPITAL MOISTURE AS
IT MOVES INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. JUST LIKE YESTERDAY...THE GFS
IS POINTING TOWARDS A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS MAKING IT INTO THE
CWA...WHILE THE ECMWF IS KEEPING US DRY. MEANWHILE...DESPITE THE
PLAN VIEW GFS OUTPUT...THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE ONLY POINTING
AT A NARROW WINDOW OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH ABUNDANT DRY AIR NEAR
THE SURFACE. THIS IS MORE CHARACTERISTIC OF SOME SCT TO BKN CLOUD
COVER RATHER THAN RAINFALL. AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD
THE DRIER ECMWF.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AS WE FINISH OUT THE 7 DAY FORECAST. GRANTED...THIS
IS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST...BUT MODELS ARE IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SO CONFIDENCE IS A BIT HIGHER. THIS
PARTICULAR UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIGGING AS IT
NEARS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION...LENDING TO A STRONGER SURFACE
BOUNDARY. IF THIS PROVES TO BE TRUE...WE MAY SEE OUR NEXT BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...

THE POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS AND DRIER NW FLOW WILL BRING IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO START OFF FRIDAY. HOWEVER...STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE MAXIMUM DAYTIME
RADIATION...SO THE TEMP DROP WILL NOT BE THAT GREAT...STILL
MAINTAINING LOW TO MID 80S. PERHAPS MORE NOTICEABLE THAN THE SLIGHT
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE DECREASE IN HUMIDITY...AS LIGHT
WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PROMOTE LOWER RH VALUES.
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED...EXPECT TEMPS TO GRADUALLY WARM A DEGREE OR TWO EACH
DAY...STAYING IN THE MID 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE...MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE OVERNIGHT WILL
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 209 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

CONDITIONS VARIED WIDELY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE
TREND WILL BE FOR WORSENING CONDITIONS...WITH A DESCENT TO LIFR
OR VLIFR EXPECTED FOR MOST PLACES BEFORE DAWN. THERE WERE STILL
SOME SLOW MOVING SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE STATE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A POTENTIAL FOR THEM THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...BUT WHERE AND WHEN THEY WILL DEVELOP IS TOO
UNCERTAIN TO FORECAST.

FOG AND ASSOCIATED LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT AND DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNRISE...GIVING WAY TO LARGELY VFR BY LATE MORNING. HOWEVER...
THE DAYTIME WARMING SHOULD ALSO LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON. THEY WILL BRING
LOCALIZED IFR. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN LARGELY
DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...HAL





000
FXUS63 KJKL 290800
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
400 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

ISOLATED SLOW MOVING SHOWERS HAVE PERSISTED DURING THE NIGHT IN
THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING...BUT THE PROBABILITY AT ANY
GIVEN LOCATION IS LOW. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS MORE LIKELY BY
THIS AFTERNOON AS HEATING OCCURS. IT WILL LIKELY DIE OUT AGAIN IN
THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE ALOFT
BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND RESULT IN DRIER WEATHER FOR THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

WE WILL BE IN A POST FRONTAL REGIME TO START OFF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST AT 0Z FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE
HOLD THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER NRLY WINDS AT THE
SURFACE. MEANWHILE...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS HUDSON BAY...ROTATING AROUND THE BAY FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A LONGWAVE TROUGHING PATTERN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND EASTERN CONUS...CONTINUING THE NW
FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS NW FLOW WILL PROVIDE
THE PERFECT SCENARIO FOR SHORTWAVES TO TRACK SE ALONG THE TROUGH AND
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.
HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE HOLD AT THE SURFACE. THE QUESTION
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED IS WHETHER OR NOT THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO SWAY THE IMPACT OF THESE SHORTWAVES AS THEY MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN KY.

THE FIRST OF THESE SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. AS OF 0Z FRIDAY...THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
POSED TO BE LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION...AND WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE
SHORTWAVE NEARS. HOWEVER...THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE MOISTURE DEPRIVED
AND FAIRLY WEAK. LATEST MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME DISAGREEMENT
ON IF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN PRECIPITAL MOISTURE AS
IT MOVES INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. JUST LIKE YESTERDAY...THE GFS
IS POINTING TOWARDS A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS MAKING IT INTO THE
CWA...WHILE THE ECMWF IS KEEPING US DRY. MEANWHILE...DESPITE THE
PLAN VIEW GFS OUTPUT...THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE ONLY POINTING
AT A NARROW WINDOW OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH ABUNDANT DRY AIR NEAR
THE SURFACE. THIS IS MORE CHARACTERISTIC OF SOME SCT TO BKN CLOUD
COVER RATHER THAN RAINFALL. AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD
THE DRIER ECMWF.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AS WE FINISH OUT THE 7 DAY FORECAST. GRANTED...THIS
IS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST...BUT MODELS ARE IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SO CONFIDENCE IS A BIT HIGHER. THIS
PARTICULAR UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIGGING AS IT
NEARS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION...LENDING TO A STRONGER SURFACE
BOUNDARY. IF THIS PROVES TO BE TRUE...WE MAY SEE OUR NEXT BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...

THE POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS AND DRIER NW FLOW WILL BRING IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO START OFF FRIDAY. HOWEVER...STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE MAXIMUM DAYTIME
RADIATION...SO THE TEMP DROP WILL NOT BE THAT GREAT...STILL
MAINTAINING LOW TO MID 80S. PERHAPS MORE NOTICEABLE THAN THE SLIGHT
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE DECREASE IN HUMIDITY...AS LIGHT
WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PROMOTE LOWER RH VALUES.
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED...EXPECT TEMPS TO GRADUALLY WARM A DEGREE OR TWO EACH
DAY...STAYING IN THE MID 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE...MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE OVERNIGHT WILL
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 209 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

CONDITIONS VARIED WIDELY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE
TREND WILL BE FOR WORSENING CONDITIONS...WITH A DESCENT TO LIFR
OR VLIFR EXPECTED FOR MOST PLACES BEFORE DAWN. THERE WERE STILL
SOME SLOW MOVING SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE STATE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A POTENTIAL FOR THEM THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...BUT WHERE AND WHEN THEY WILL DEVELOP IS TOO
UNCERTAIN TO FORECAST.

FOG AND ASSOCIATED LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT AND DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNRISE...GIVING WAY TO LARGELY VFR BY LATE MORNING. HOWEVER...
THE DAYTIME WARMING SHOULD ALSO LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON. THEY WILL BRING
LOCALIZED IFR. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN LARGELY
DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...HAL




000
FXUS63 KJKL 290754
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
354 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1043 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

CONVECTION IS DWINDLING...WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LEFT IN THE
SOUTHWEST. FORCING WILL BE LACKING OVERNIGHT...AND GIVEN THE
WEAKENING TREND...DO NOT SEE MUCH REASON TO HANG ONTO TO EVEN
ISOLATED POPS AT THIS POINT. BESIDES SOME PASSING HIGHER CLOUDS
FROM THE NORTH...PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL RULE.
HAVE THEREFORE HIT THE FOG A BIT HARDER. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 806 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

MOST CONVECTION EAST OF I-75 HAS WANED...BESIDES A FEW STRAY
LIGHT RETURNS AT TIMES. THE BEST COVERAGE IS CURRENTLY ALIGNED
WEST OF I-75...ASSOCIATED WITH SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
A FAIRLY UNTAPPED ENVIRONMENT. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION SHORT TERM
MODELS SHOW THIS AREA OF CONVERGENCE WEAKENING AFTER 01Z...SO HAVE
CONTINUED TO ALIGN THE BEST POPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO...BEFORE DWINDLING. WILL HANG ONTO SLIGHT POPS
ELSEWHERE THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT...BEFORE GOING DRY. LOW
TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 AND PLENTY OF FOG LOOK ON TRACK OVERNIGHT.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA SLOWLY SHIFTING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
AS THEY DEVELOP. THE MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON BEING THE HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL WITH PWATS IN THE 1.8 TO 2.2 RANGE AND PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY. THIS HAS BEEN OCCURRING WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE
OVERHEAD WITH A FADED SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHING ACROSS THE AREA.
DUE TO THE SATURATED AIR MASS IN PLACE AND INSTABILITY IN
PLACE...WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS WELL INTO THE EVENING TONIGHT AS
PERSISTENCE WOULD ALSO SUGGEST THIS. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN THE HWO. THIS HAS ALSO
TEMPERED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.

HEADING INTO TONIGHT...LINGERING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH THIS
SATURATED AIR MASS IN PLACE. WITH THIS INSTABILITY WILL BE SLOW
TO WANE ALONG WITH PWATS STILL IN THE 2 INCH RANGE. A BRIEF BREAK
IN PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER WILL LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT AND WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING IN THE LOWER 70S WITH SOME
MID 70S...FOG WILL BE DENSE IN SOME AREAS. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND REMAIN PRONOUNCED WITH A BETTER DEFINED
FEATURE ON THE WAY IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT. THIS WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT FOR CONTINUED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO
THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY. IN FACT...INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PWAT
VALUES JUMP BEYOND THE 2 INCH RANGE WITH MODEL PROFILES SATURATED
TO NEARLY 500MB IN MOST LOCATIONS. FOR THIS...HAVE PUT LIKELY POPS
WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SPC HAS ALSO MENTIONED
A MARGINAL WIND THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT BUT THE
MAIN IMPACT WILL AGAIN BE SLOW STORM MOTION WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLY CAUSING SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES.

IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL...TEMPERATURES WILL REACH TO
AROUND 90 ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING
AROUND 100 POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS ADDING ANOTHER IMPACT TO BE
MINDFUL OF.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

WE WILL BE IN A POST FRONTAL REGIME TO START OFF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST AT 0Z FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE
HOLD THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER NRLY WINDS AT THE
SURFACE. MEANWHILE...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS HUDSON BAY...ROTATING AROUND THE BAY FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A LONGWAVE TROUGHING PATTERN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND EASTERN CONUS...CONTINUING THE NW
FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS NW FLOW WILL PROVIDE
THE PERFECT SCENARIO FOR SHORTWAVES TO TRACK SE ALONG THE TROUGH AND
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.
HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE HOLD AT THE SURFACE. THE QUESTION
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED IS WHETHER OR NOT THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO SWAY THE IMPACT OF THESE SHORTWAVES AS THEY MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN KY.

THE FIRST OF THESE SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. AS OF 0Z FRIDAY...THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
POSED TO BE LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION...AND WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE
SHORTWAVE NEARS. HOWEVER...THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE MOISTURE DEPRIVED
AND FAIRLY WEAK. LATEST MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME DISAGREEMENT
ON IF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN PRECIPITAL MOISTURE AS
IT MOVES INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. JUST LIKE YESTERDAY...THE GFS
IS POINTING TOWARDS A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS MAKING IT INTO THE
CWA...WHILE THE ECMWF IS KEEPING US DRY. MEANWHILE...DESPITE THE
PLAN VIEW GFS OUTPUT...THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE ONLY POINTING
AT A NARROW WINDOW OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH ABUNDANT DRY AIR NEAR
THE SURFACE. THIS IS MORE CHARACTERISTIC OF SOME SCT TO BKN CLOUD
COVER RATHER THAN RAINFALL. AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD
THE DRIER ECMWF.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AS WE FINISH OUT THE 7 DAY FORECAST. GRANTED...THIS
IS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST...BUT MODELS ARE IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SO CONFIDENCE IS A BIT HIGHER. THIS
PARTICULAR UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIGGING AS IT
NEARS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION...LENDING TO A STRONGER SURFACE
BOUNDARY. IF THIS PROVES TO BE TRUE...WE MAY SEE OUR NEXT BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...

THE POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS AND DRIER NW FLOW WILL BRING IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO START OFF FRIDAY. HOWEVER...STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE MAXIMUM DAYTIME
RADIATION...SO THE TEMP DROP WILL NOT BE THAT GREAT...STILL
MAINTAINING LOW TO MID 80S. PERHAPS MORE NOTICEABLE THAN THE SLIGHT
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE DECREASE IN HUMIDITY...AS LIGHT
WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PROMOTE LOWER RH VALUES.
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED...EXPECT TEMPS TO GRADUALLY WARM A DEGREE OR TWO EACH
DAY...STAYING IN THE MID 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE...MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE OVERNIGHT WILL
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 209 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

CONDITIONS VARIED WIDELY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE
TREND WILL BE FOR WORSENING CONDITIONS...WITH A DESCENT TO LIFR
OR VLIFR EXPECTED FOR MOST PLACES BEFORE DAWN. THERE WERE STILL
SOME SLOW MOVING SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE STATE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A POTENTIAL FOR THEM THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...BUT WHERE AND WHEN THEY WILL DEVELOP IS TOO
UNCERTAIN TO FORECAST.

FOG AND ASSOCIATED LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT AND DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNRISE...GIVING WAY TO LARGELY VFR BY LATE MORNING. HOWEVER...
THE DAYTIME WARMING SHOULD ALSO LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON. THEY WILL BRING
LOCALIZED IFR. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN LARGELY
DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...HAL




000
FXUS63 KJKL 290754
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
354 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1043 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

CONVECTION IS DWINDLING...WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LEFT IN THE
SOUTHWEST. FORCING WILL BE LACKING OVERNIGHT...AND GIVEN THE
WEAKENING TREND...DO NOT SEE MUCH REASON TO HANG ONTO TO EVEN
ISOLATED POPS AT THIS POINT. BESIDES SOME PASSING HIGHER CLOUDS
FROM THE NORTH...PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL RULE.
HAVE THEREFORE HIT THE FOG A BIT HARDER. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 806 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

MOST CONVECTION EAST OF I-75 HAS WANED...BESIDES A FEW STRAY
LIGHT RETURNS AT TIMES. THE BEST COVERAGE IS CURRENTLY ALIGNED
WEST OF I-75...ASSOCIATED WITH SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
A FAIRLY UNTAPPED ENVIRONMENT. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION SHORT TERM
MODELS SHOW THIS AREA OF CONVERGENCE WEAKENING AFTER 01Z...SO HAVE
CONTINUED TO ALIGN THE BEST POPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO...BEFORE DWINDLING. WILL HANG ONTO SLIGHT POPS
ELSEWHERE THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT...BEFORE GOING DRY. LOW
TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 AND PLENTY OF FOG LOOK ON TRACK OVERNIGHT.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA SLOWLY SHIFTING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
AS THEY DEVELOP. THE MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON BEING THE HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL WITH PWATS IN THE 1.8 TO 2.2 RANGE AND PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY. THIS HAS BEEN OCCURRING WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE
OVERHEAD WITH A FADED SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHING ACROSS THE AREA.
DUE TO THE SATURATED AIR MASS IN PLACE AND INSTABILITY IN
PLACE...WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS WELL INTO THE EVENING TONIGHT AS
PERSISTENCE WOULD ALSO SUGGEST THIS. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN THE HWO. THIS HAS ALSO
TEMPERED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.

HEADING INTO TONIGHT...LINGERING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH THIS
SATURATED AIR MASS IN PLACE. WITH THIS INSTABILITY WILL BE SLOW
TO WANE ALONG WITH PWATS STILL IN THE 2 INCH RANGE. A BRIEF BREAK
IN PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER WILL LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT AND WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING IN THE LOWER 70S WITH SOME
MID 70S...FOG WILL BE DENSE IN SOME AREAS. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND REMAIN PRONOUNCED WITH A BETTER DEFINED
FEATURE ON THE WAY IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT. THIS WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT FOR CONTINUED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO
THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY. IN FACT...INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PWAT
VALUES JUMP BEYOND THE 2 INCH RANGE WITH MODEL PROFILES SATURATED
TO NEARLY 500MB IN MOST LOCATIONS. FOR THIS...HAVE PUT LIKELY POPS
WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SPC HAS ALSO MENTIONED
A MARGINAL WIND THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT BUT THE
MAIN IMPACT WILL AGAIN BE SLOW STORM MOTION WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLY CAUSING SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES.

IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL...TEMPERATURES WILL REACH TO
AROUND 90 ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING
AROUND 100 POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS ADDING ANOTHER IMPACT TO BE
MINDFUL OF.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

WE WILL BE IN A POST FRONTAL REGIME TO START OFF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST AT 0Z FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE
HOLD THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER NRLY WINDS AT THE
SURFACE. MEANWHILE...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS HUDSON BAY...ROTATING AROUND THE BAY FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A LONGWAVE TROUGHING PATTERN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND EASTERN CONUS...CONTINUING THE NW
FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS NW FLOW WILL PROVIDE
THE PERFECT SCENARIO FOR SHORTWAVES TO TRACK SE ALONG THE TROUGH AND
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.
HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE HOLD AT THE SURFACE. THE QUESTION
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED IS WHETHER OR NOT THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO SWAY THE IMPACT OF THESE SHORTWAVES AS THEY MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN KY.

THE FIRST OF THESE SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. AS OF 0Z FRIDAY...THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
POSED TO BE LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION...AND WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE
SHORTWAVE NEARS. HOWEVER...THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE MOISTURE DEPRIVED
AND FAIRLY WEAK. LATEST MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME DISAGREEMENT
ON IF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN PRECIPITAL MOISTURE AS
IT MOVES INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. JUST LIKE YESTERDAY...THE GFS
IS POINTING TOWARDS A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS MAKING IT INTO THE
CWA...WHILE THE ECMWF IS KEEPING US DRY. MEANWHILE...DESPITE THE
PLAN VIEW GFS OUTPUT...THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE ONLY POINTING
AT A NARROW WINDOW OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH ABUNDANT DRY AIR NEAR
THE SURFACE. THIS IS MORE CHARACTERISTIC OF SOME SCT TO BKN CLOUD
COVER RATHER THAN RAINFALL. AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD
THE DRIER ECMWF.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AS WE FINISH OUT THE 7 DAY FORECAST. GRANTED...THIS
IS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST...BUT MODELS ARE IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SO CONFIDENCE IS A BIT HIGHER. THIS
PARTICULAR UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIGGING AS IT
NEARS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION...LENDING TO A STRONGER SURFACE
BOUNDARY. IF THIS PROVES TO BE TRUE...WE MAY SEE OUR NEXT BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...

THE POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS AND DRIER NW FLOW WILL BRING IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO START OFF FRIDAY. HOWEVER...STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE MAXIMUM DAYTIME
RADIATION...SO THE TEMP DROP WILL NOT BE THAT GREAT...STILL
MAINTAINING LOW TO MID 80S. PERHAPS MORE NOTICEABLE THAN THE SLIGHT
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE DECREASE IN HUMIDITY...AS LIGHT
WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PROMOTE LOWER RH VALUES.
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED...EXPECT TEMPS TO GRADUALLY WARM A DEGREE OR TWO EACH
DAY...STAYING IN THE MID 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE...MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE OVERNIGHT WILL
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 209 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

CONDITIONS VARIED WIDELY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE
TREND WILL BE FOR WORSENING CONDITIONS...WITH A DESCENT TO LIFR
OR VLIFR EXPECTED FOR MOST PLACES BEFORE DAWN. THERE WERE STILL
SOME SLOW MOVING SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE STATE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A POTENTIAL FOR THEM THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...BUT WHERE AND WHEN THEY WILL DEVELOP IS TOO
UNCERTAIN TO FORECAST.

FOG AND ASSOCIATED LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT AND DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNRISE...GIVING WAY TO LARGELY VFR BY LATE MORNING. HOWEVER...
THE DAYTIME WARMING SHOULD ALSO LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON. THEY WILL BRING
LOCALIZED IFR. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN LARGELY
DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...HAL





000
FXUS63 KJKL 290709
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
309 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1043 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

CONVECTION IS DWINDLING...WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LEFT IN THE
SOUTHWEST. FORCING WILL BE LACKING OVERNIGHT...AND GIVEN THE
WEAKENING TREND...DO NOT SEE MUCH REASON TO HANG ONTO TO EVEN
ISOLATED POPS AT THIS POINT. BESIDES SOME PASSING HIGHER CLOUDS
FROM THE NORTH...PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL RULE.
HAVE THEREFORE HIT THE FOG A BIT HARDER. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 806 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

MOST CONVECTION EAST OF I-75 HAS WANED...BESIDES A FEW STRAY
LIGHT RETURNS AT TIMES. THE BEST COVERAGE IS CURRENTLY ALIGNED
WEST OF I-75...ASSOCIATED WITH SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
A FAIRLY UNTAPPED ENVIRONMENT. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION SHORT TERM
MODELS SHOW THIS AREA OF CONVERGENCE WEAKENING AFTER 01Z...SO HAVE
CONTINUED TO ALIGN THE BEST POPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO...BEFORE DWINDLING. WILL HANG ONTO SLIGHT POPS
ELSEWHERE THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT...BEFORE GOING DRY. LOW
TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 AND PLENTY OF FOG LOOK ON TRACK OVERNIGHT.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA SLOWLY SHIFTING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
AS THEY DEVELOP. THE MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON BEING THE HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL WITH PWATS IN THE 1.8 TO 2.2 RANGE AND PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY. THIS HAS BEEN OCCURRING WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE
OVERHEAD WITH A FADED SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHING ACROSS THE AREA.
DUE TO THE SATURATED AIR MASS IN PLACE AND INSTABILITY IN
PLACE...WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS WELL INTO THE EVENING TONIGHT AS
PERSISTENCE WOULD ALSO SUGGEST THIS. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN THE HWO. THIS HAS ALSO
TEMPERED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.

HEADING INTO TONIGHT...LINGERING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH THIS
SATURATED AIR MASS IN PLACE. WITH THIS INSTABILITY WILL BE SLOW
TO WANE ALONG WITH PWATS STILL IN THE 2 INCH RANGE. A BRIEF BREAK
IN PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER WILL LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT AND WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING IN THE LOWER 70S WITH SOME
MID 70S...FOG WILL BE DENSE IN SOME AREAS. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND REMAIN PRONOUNCED WITH A BETTER DEFINED
FEATURE ON THE WAY IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT. THIS WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT FOR CONTINUED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO
THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY. IN FACT...INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PWAT
VALUES JUMP BEYOND THE 2 INCH RANGE WITH MODEL PROFILES SATURATED
TO NEARLY 500MB IN MOST LOCATIONS. FOR THIS...HAVE PUT LIKELY POPS
WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SPC HAS ALSO MENTIONED
A MARGINAL WIND THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT BUT THE
MAIN IMPACT WILL AGAIN BE SLOW STORM MOTION WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLY CAUSING SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES.

IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL...TEMPERATURES WILL REACH TO
AROUND 90 ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING
AROUND 100 POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS ADDING ANOTHER IMPACT TO BE
MINDFUL OF.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A CLOSED LOW
CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWER OH VALLEY REGION. AT
THAT POINT...RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WITH ANOTHER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGION. TO START THE
PERIOD...A SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER
ONTARIO SHOULD BE NEARING OR MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING EAST TOWARD THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION IN ITS WAKE.

DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE INITIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHOULD
RETROGRADE WEST TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND THEN THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION...WHILE A TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE HUDSON AND JAMES BAY
REGIONS SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. ON THE MEAN...THIS PATTERN
SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHORTWAVES WILL
PERIODICALLY ROTATE AROUND THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND THROUGH THE
TROUGH IN NW FLOW...AND BRING PERIODIC INCREASES IN MID AND UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE. THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONTS...ONE MOVING THROUGH
FRI NIGHT AND SAT SHOULD BE MOISTURE STARVED AND NOT PRODUCE MORE
THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. LATE IN THE PERIOD...ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE AREA. THIS COLD FRONT NEARING THE OH VALLEY LATE
ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY SHOULD HAVE A BIT MORE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH.

LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER UNTIL
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES NEAR THE VA BORDER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN A BRING AN
AIR MASS THAT WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COLDER...WITH LOWER
DEW POINTS AND LESS HUMIDITY BEING MORE NOTICEABLE. HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE MID 80S SHOULD BE COMMON FOR THU INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. LOWS
WILL AVERAGE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO END THE WEEK...IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S. IF DRY ENOUGH AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY...A FEW OF THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS IN THE NORTH...NORTH
OF THE MTN PARKWAY COULD DROP TO 59 OR SO NO FRIDAY OR SATURDAY
MORNINGS. PATCHY VALLEY FOG SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP EACH MORNING FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SLIGHT POPS WERE USED LATE IN THE
PERIOD...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 209 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

CONDITIONS VARIED WIDELY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE
TREND WILL BE FOR WORSENING CONDITIONS...WITH A DESCENT TO LIFR
OR VLIFR EXPECTED FOR MOST PLACES BEFORE DAWN. THERE WERE STILL
SOME SLOW MOVING SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE STATE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A POTENTIAL FOR THEM THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...BUT WHERE AND WHEN THEY WILL DEVELOP IS TOO
UNCERTAIN TO FORECAST.

FOG AND ASSOCIATED LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT AND DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNRISE...GIVING WAY TO LARGELY VFR BY LATE MORNING. HOWEVER...
THE DAYTIME WARMING SHOULD ALSO LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON. THEY WILL BRING
LOCALIZED IFR. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN LARGELY
DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...HAL




000
FXUS63 KJKL 290243 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1043 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1043 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

CONVECTION IS DWINDLING...WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LEFT IN THE
SOUTHWEST. FORCING WILL BE LACKING OVERNIGHT...AND GIVEN THE
WEAKENING TREND...DO NOT SEE MUCH REASON TO HANG ONTO TO EVEN
ISOLATED POPS AT THIS POINT. BESIDES SOME PASSING HIGHER CLOUDS
FROM THE NORTH...PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL RULE.
HAVE THEREFORE HIT THE FOG A BIT HARDER. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 806 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

MOST CONVECTION EAST OF I-75 HAS WANED...BESIDES A FEW STRAY
LIGHT RETURNS AT TIMES. THE BEST COVERAGE IS CURRENTLY ALIGNED
WEST OF I-75...ASSOCIATED WITH SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
A FAIRLY UNTAPPED ENVIRONMENT. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION SHORT TERM
MODELS SHOW THIS AREA OF CONVERGENCE WEAKENING AFTER 01Z...SO HAVE
CONTINUED TO ALIGN THE BEST POPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO...BEFORE DWINDLING. WILL HANG ONTO SLIGHT POPS
ELSEWHERE THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT...BEFORE GOING DRY. LOW
TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 AND PLENTY OF FOG LOOK ON TRACK OVERNIGHT.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA SLOWLY SHIFTING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
AS THEY DEVELOP. THE MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON BEING THE HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL WITH PWATS IN THE 1.8 TO 2.2 RANGE AND PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY. THIS HAS BEEN OCCURRING WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE
OVERHEAD WITH A FADED SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHING ACROSS THE AREA.
DUE TO THE SATURATED AIR MASS IN PLACE AND INSTABILITY IN
PLACE...WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS WELL INTO THE EVENING TONIGHT AS
PERSISTENCE WOULD ALSO SUGGEST THIS. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN THE HWO. THIS HAS ALSO
TEMPERED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.

HEADING INTO TONIGHT...LINGERING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH THIS
SATURATED AIR MASS IN PLACE. WITH THIS INSTABILITY WILL BE SLOW
TO WANE ALONG WITH PWATS STILL IN THE 2 INCH RANGE. A BRIEF BREAK
IN PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER WILL LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT AND WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING IN THE LOWER 70S WITH SOME
MID 70S...FOG WILL BE DENSE IN SOME AREAS. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND REMAIN PRONOUNCED WITH A BETTER DEFINED
FEATURE ON THE WAY IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT. THIS WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT FOR CONTINUED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO
THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY. IN FACT...INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PWAT
VALUES JUMP BEYOND THE 2 INCH RANGE WITH MODEL PROFILES SATURATED
TO NEARLY 500MB IN MOST LOCATIONS. FOR THIS...HAVE PUT LIKELY POPS
WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SPC HAS ALSO MENTIONED
A MARGINAL WIND THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT BUT THE
MAIN IMPACT WILL AGAIN BE SLOW STORM MOTION WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLY CAUSING SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES.

IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL...TEMPERATURES WILL REACH TO
AROUND 90 ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING
AROUND 100 POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS ADDING ANOTHER IMPACT TO BE
MINDFUL OF.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A CLOSED LOW
CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWER OH VALLEY REGION. AT
THAT POINT...RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WITH ANOTHER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGION. TO START THE
PERIOD...A SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER
ONTARIO SHOULD BE NEARING OR MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING EAST TOWARD THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION IN ITS WAKE.

DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE INITIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHOULD
RETROGRADE WEST TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND THEN THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION...WHILE A TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE HUDSON AND JAMES BAY
REGIONS SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. ON THE MEAN...THIS PATTERN
SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHORTWAVES WILL
PERIODICALLY ROTATE AROUND THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND THROUGH THE
TROUGH IN NW FLOW...AND BRING PERIODIC INCREASES IN MID AND UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE. THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONTS...ONE MOVING THROUGH
FRI NIGHT AND SAT SHOULD BE MOISTURE STARVED AND NOT PRODUCE MORE
THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. LATE IN THE PERIOD...ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE AREA. THIS COLD FRONT NEARING THE OH VALLEY LATE
ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY SHOULD HAVE A BIT MORE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH.

LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER UNTIL
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES NEAR THE VA BORDER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN A BRING AN
AIR MASS THAT WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COLDER...WITH LOWER
DEW POINTS AND LESS HUMIDITY BEING MORE NOTICEABLE. HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE MID 80S SHOULD BE COMMON FOR THU INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. LOWS
WILL AVERAGE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO END THE WEEK...IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S. IF DRY ENOUGH AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY...A FEW OF THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS IN THE NORTH...NORTH
OF THE MTN PARKWAY COULD DROP TO 59 OR SO NO FRIDAY OR SATURDAY
MORNINGS. PATCHY VALLEY FOG SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP EACH MORNING FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SLIGHT POPS WERE USED LATE IN THE
PERIOD...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 806 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS AT SME THROUGH 01Z AS CONVECTION MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. AT LOZ...EXPECT A SLIGHTLY LATER
ARRIVAL AND LIKELY LESS INTENSE. HAVE GONE FOR A HALF HOUR WINDOW
OF MVFR ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION BETWEEN 01 AND 02Z.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE ISOLATED ENOUGH TO FOREGO ANY
VCTS MENTION. FOG WILL THEN SET IN OVERNIGHT...AND CONTINUED TO
MENTION LIFR OR WORSE FOG ACROSS THE BOARD GIVEN THE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT AND POTENTIALLY CLEARER SKIES OVERHEAD COMPARED TO
LAST NIGHT. FOG WILL BURN OFF BY AROUND 13Z...WITH ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED CONVECTION LIKELY THREATENING THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN




000
FXUS63 KJKL 290243 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1043 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1043 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

CONVECTION IS DWINDLING...WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LEFT IN THE
SOUTHWEST. FORCING WILL BE LACKING OVERNIGHT...AND GIVEN THE
WEAKENING TREND...DO NOT SEE MUCH REASON TO HANG ONTO TO EVEN
ISOLATED POPS AT THIS POINT. BESIDES SOME PASSING HIGHER CLOUDS
FROM THE NORTH...PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL RULE.
HAVE THEREFORE HIT THE FOG A BIT HARDER. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 806 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

MOST CONVECTION EAST OF I-75 HAS WANED...BESIDES A FEW STRAY
LIGHT RETURNS AT TIMES. THE BEST COVERAGE IS CURRENTLY ALIGNED
WEST OF I-75...ASSOCIATED WITH SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
A FAIRLY UNTAPPED ENVIRONMENT. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION SHORT TERM
MODELS SHOW THIS AREA OF CONVERGENCE WEAKENING AFTER 01Z...SO HAVE
CONTINUED TO ALIGN THE BEST POPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO...BEFORE DWINDLING. WILL HANG ONTO SLIGHT POPS
ELSEWHERE THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT...BEFORE GOING DRY. LOW
TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 AND PLENTY OF FOG LOOK ON TRACK OVERNIGHT.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA SLOWLY SHIFTING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
AS THEY DEVELOP. THE MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON BEING THE HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL WITH PWATS IN THE 1.8 TO 2.2 RANGE AND PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY. THIS HAS BEEN OCCURRING WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE
OVERHEAD WITH A FADED SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHING ACROSS THE AREA.
DUE TO THE SATURATED AIR MASS IN PLACE AND INSTABILITY IN
PLACE...WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS WELL INTO THE EVENING TONIGHT AS
PERSISTENCE WOULD ALSO SUGGEST THIS. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN THE HWO. THIS HAS ALSO
TEMPERED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.

HEADING INTO TONIGHT...LINGERING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH THIS
SATURATED AIR MASS IN PLACE. WITH THIS INSTABILITY WILL BE SLOW
TO WANE ALONG WITH PWATS STILL IN THE 2 INCH RANGE. A BRIEF BREAK
IN PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER WILL LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT AND WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING IN THE LOWER 70S WITH SOME
MID 70S...FOG WILL BE DENSE IN SOME AREAS. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND REMAIN PRONOUNCED WITH A BETTER DEFINED
FEATURE ON THE WAY IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT. THIS WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT FOR CONTINUED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO
THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY. IN FACT...INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PWAT
VALUES JUMP BEYOND THE 2 INCH RANGE WITH MODEL PROFILES SATURATED
TO NEARLY 500MB IN MOST LOCATIONS. FOR THIS...HAVE PUT LIKELY POPS
WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SPC HAS ALSO MENTIONED
A MARGINAL WIND THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT BUT THE
MAIN IMPACT WILL AGAIN BE SLOW STORM MOTION WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLY CAUSING SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES.

IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL...TEMPERATURES WILL REACH TO
AROUND 90 ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING
AROUND 100 POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS ADDING ANOTHER IMPACT TO BE
MINDFUL OF.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A CLOSED LOW
CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWER OH VALLEY REGION. AT
THAT POINT...RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WITH ANOTHER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGION. TO START THE
PERIOD...A SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER
ONTARIO SHOULD BE NEARING OR MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING EAST TOWARD THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION IN ITS WAKE.

DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE INITIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHOULD
RETROGRADE WEST TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND THEN THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION...WHILE A TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE HUDSON AND JAMES BAY
REGIONS SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. ON THE MEAN...THIS PATTERN
SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHORTWAVES WILL
PERIODICALLY ROTATE AROUND THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND THROUGH THE
TROUGH IN NW FLOW...AND BRING PERIODIC INCREASES IN MID AND UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE. THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONTS...ONE MOVING THROUGH
FRI NIGHT AND SAT SHOULD BE MOISTURE STARVED AND NOT PRODUCE MORE
THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. LATE IN THE PERIOD...ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE AREA. THIS COLD FRONT NEARING THE OH VALLEY LATE
ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY SHOULD HAVE A BIT MORE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH.

LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER UNTIL
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES NEAR THE VA BORDER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN A BRING AN
AIR MASS THAT WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COLDER...WITH LOWER
DEW POINTS AND LESS HUMIDITY BEING MORE NOTICEABLE. HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE MID 80S SHOULD BE COMMON FOR THU INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. LOWS
WILL AVERAGE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO END THE WEEK...IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S. IF DRY ENOUGH AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY...A FEW OF THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS IN THE NORTH...NORTH
OF THE MTN PARKWAY COULD DROP TO 59 OR SO NO FRIDAY OR SATURDAY
MORNINGS. PATCHY VALLEY FOG SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP EACH MORNING FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SLIGHT POPS WERE USED LATE IN THE
PERIOD...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 806 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS AT SME THROUGH 01Z AS CONVECTION MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. AT LOZ...EXPECT A SLIGHTLY LATER
ARRIVAL AND LIKELY LESS INTENSE. HAVE GONE FOR A HALF HOUR WINDOW
OF MVFR ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION BETWEEN 01 AND 02Z.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE ISOLATED ENOUGH TO FOREGO ANY
VCTS MENTION. FOG WILL THEN SET IN OVERNIGHT...AND CONTINUED TO
MENTION LIFR OR WORSE FOG ACROSS THE BOARD GIVEN THE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT AND POTENTIALLY CLEARER SKIES OVERHEAD COMPARED TO
LAST NIGHT. FOG WILL BURN OFF BY AROUND 13Z...WITH ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED CONVECTION LIKELY THREATENING THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN





000
FXUS63 KJKL 290243 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1043 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1043 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

CONVECTION IS DWINDLING...WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LEFT IN THE
SOUTHWEST. FORCING WILL BE LACKING OVERNIGHT...AND GIVEN THE
WEAKENING TREND...DO NOT SEE MUCH REASON TO HANG ONTO TO EVEN
ISOLATED POPS AT THIS POINT. BESIDES SOME PASSING HIGHER CLOUDS
FROM THE NORTH...PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL RULE.
HAVE THEREFORE HIT THE FOG A BIT HARDER. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 806 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

MOST CONVECTION EAST OF I-75 HAS WANED...BESIDES A FEW STRAY
LIGHT RETURNS AT TIMES. THE BEST COVERAGE IS CURRENTLY ALIGNED
WEST OF I-75...ASSOCIATED WITH SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
A FAIRLY UNTAPPED ENVIRONMENT. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION SHORT TERM
MODELS SHOW THIS AREA OF CONVERGENCE WEAKENING AFTER 01Z...SO HAVE
CONTINUED TO ALIGN THE BEST POPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO...BEFORE DWINDLING. WILL HANG ONTO SLIGHT POPS
ELSEWHERE THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT...BEFORE GOING DRY. LOW
TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 AND PLENTY OF FOG LOOK ON TRACK OVERNIGHT.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA SLOWLY SHIFTING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
AS THEY DEVELOP. THE MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON BEING THE HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL WITH PWATS IN THE 1.8 TO 2.2 RANGE AND PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY. THIS HAS BEEN OCCURRING WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE
OVERHEAD WITH A FADED SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHING ACROSS THE AREA.
DUE TO THE SATURATED AIR MASS IN PLACE AND INSTABILITY IN
PLACE...WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS WELL INTO THE EVENING TONIGHT AS
PERSISTENCE WOULD ALSO SUGGEST THIS. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN THE HWO. THIS HAS ALSO
TEMPERED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.

HEADING INTO TONIGHT...LINGERING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH THIS
SATURATED AIR MASS IN PLACE. WITH THIS INSTABILITY WILL BE SLOW
TO WANE ALONG WITH PWATS STILL IN THE 2 INCH RANGE. A BRIEF BREAK
IN PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER WILL LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT AND WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING IN THE LOWER 70S WITH SOME
MID 70S...FOG WILL BE DENSE IN SOME AREAS. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND REMAIN PRONOUNCED WITH A BETTER DEFINED
FEATURE ON THE WAY IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT. THIS WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT FOR CONTINUED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO
THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY. IN FACT...INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PWAT
VALUES JUMP BEYOND THE 2 INCH RANGE WITH MODEL PROFILES SATURATED
TO NEARLY 500MB IN MOST LOCATIONS. FOR THIS...HAVE PUT LIKELY POPS
WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SPC HAS ALSO MENTIONED
A MARGINAL WIND THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT BUT THE
MAIN IMPACT WILL AGAIN BE SLOW STORM MOTION WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLY CAUSING SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES.

IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL...TEMPERATURES WILL REACH TO
AROUND 90 ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING
AROUND 100 POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS ADDING ANOTHER IMPACT TO BE
MINDFUL OF.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A CLOSED LOW
CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWER OH VALLEY REGION. AT
THAT POINT...RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WITH ANOTHER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGION. TO START THE
PERIOD...A SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER
ONTARIO SHOULD BE NEARING OR MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING EAST TOWARD THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION IN ITS WAKE.

DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE INITIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHOULD
RETROGRADE WEST TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND THEN THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION...WHILE A TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE HUDSON AND JAMES BAY
REGIONS SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. ON THE MEAN...THIS PATTERN
SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHORTWAVES WILL
PERIODICALLY ROTATE AROUND THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND THROUGH THE
TROUGH IN NW FLOW...AND BRING PERIODIC INCREASES IN MID AND UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE. THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONTS...ONE MOVING THROUGH
FRI NIGHT AND SAT SHOULD BE MOISTURE STARVED AND NOT PRODUCE MORE
THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. LATE IN THE PERIOD...ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE AREA. THIS COLD FRONT NEARING THE OH VALLEY LATE
ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY SHOULD HAVE A BIT MORE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH.

LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER UNTIL
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES NEAR THE VA BORDER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN A BRING AN
AIR MASS THAT WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COLDER...WITH LOWER
DEW POINTS AND LESS HUMIDITY BEING MORE NOTICEABLE. HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE MID 80S SHOULD BE COMMON FOR THU INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. LOWS
WILL AVERAGE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO END THE WEEK...IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S. IF DRY ENOUGH AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY...A FEW OF THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS IN THE NORTH...NORTH
OF THE MTN PARKWAY COULD DROP TO 59 OR SO NO FRIDAY OR SATURDAY
MORNINGS. PATCHY VALLEY FOG SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP EACH MORNING FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SLIGHT POPS WERE USED LATE IN THE
PERIOD...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 806 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS AT SME THROUGH 01Z AS CONVECTION MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. AT LOZ...EXPECT A SLIGHTLY LATER
ARRIVAL AND LIKELY LESS INTENSE. HAVE GONE FOR A HALF HOUR WINDOW
OF MVFR ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION BETWEEN 01 AND 02Z.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE ISOLATED ENOUGH TO FOREGO ANY
VCTS MENTION. FOG WILL THEN SET IN OVERNIGHT...AND CONTINUED TO
MENTION LIFR OR WORSE FOG ACROSS THE BOARD GIVEN THE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT AND POTENTIALLY CLEARER SKIES OVERHEAD COMPARED TO
LAST NIGHT. FOG WILL BURN OFF BY AROUND 13Z...WITH ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED CONVECTION LIKELY THREATENING THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN




000
FXUS63 KJKL 290243 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1043 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1043 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

CONVECTION IS DWINDLING...WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LEFT IN THE
SOUTHWEST. FORCING WILL BE LACKING OVERNIGHT...AND GIVEN THE
WEAKENING TREND...DO NOT SEE MUCH REASON TO HANG ONTO TO EVEN
ISOLATED POPS AT THIS POINT. BESIDES SOME PASSING HIGHER CLOUDS
FROM THE NORTH...PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL RULE.
HAVE THEREFORE HIT THE FOG A BIT HARDER. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 806 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

MOST CONVECTION EAST OF I-75 HAS WANED...BESIDES A FEW STRAY
LIGHT RETURNS AT TIMES. THE BEST COVERAGE IS CURRENTLY ALIGNED
WEST OF I-75...ASSOCIATED WITH SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
A FAIRLY UNTAPPED ENVIRONMENT. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION SHORT TERM
MODELS SHOW THIS AREA OF CONVERGENCE WEAKENING AFTER 01Z...SO HAVE
CONTINUED TO ALIGN THE BEST POPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO...BEFORE DWINDLING. WILL HANG ONTO SLIGHT POPS
ELSEWHERE THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT...BEFORE GOING DRY. LOW
TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 AND PLENTY OF FOG LOOK ON TRACK OVERNIGHT.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA SLOWLY SHIFTING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
AS THEY DEVELOP. THE MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON BEING THE HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL WITH PWATS IN THE 1.8 TO 2.2 RANGE AND PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY. THIS HAS BEEN OCCURRING WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE
OVERHEAD WITH A FADED SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHING ACROSS THE AREA.
DUE TO THE SATURATED AIR MASS IN PLACE AND INSTABILITY IN
PLACE...WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS WELL INTO THE EVENING TONIGHT AS
PERSISTENCE WOULD ALSO SUGGEST THIS. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN THE HWO. THIS HAS ALSO
TEMPERED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.

HEADING INTO TONIGHT...LINGERING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH THIS
SATURATED AIR MASS IN PLACE. WITH THIS INSTABILITY WILL BE SLOW
TO WANE ALONG WITH PWATS STILL IN THE 2 INCH RANGE. A BRIEF BREAK
IN PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER WILL LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT AND WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING IN THE LOWER 70S WITH SOME
MID 70S...FOG WILL BE DENSE IN SOME AREAS. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND REMAIN PRONOUNCED WITH A BETTER DEFINED
FEATURE ON THE WAY IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT. THIS WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT FOR CONTINUED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO
THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY. IN FACT...INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PWAT
VALUES JUMP BEYOND THE 2 INCH RANGE WITH MODEL PROFILES SATURATED
TO NEARLY 500MB IN MOST LOCATIONS. FOR THIS...HAVE PUT LIKELY POPS
WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SPC HAS ALSO MENTIONED
A MARGINAL WIND THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT BUT THE
MAIN IMPACT WILL AGAIN BE SLOW STORM MOTION WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLY CAUSING SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES.

IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL...TEMPERATURES WILL REACH TO
AROUND 90 ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING
AROUND 100 POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS ADDING ANOTHER IMPACT TO BE
MINDFUL OF.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A CLOSED LOW
CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWER OH VALLEY REGION. AT
THAT POINT...RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WITH ANOTHER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGION. TO START THE
PERIOD...A SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER
ONTARIO SHOULD BE NEARING OR MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING EAST TOWARD THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION IN ITS WAKE.

DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE INITIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHOULD
RETROGRADE WEST TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND THEN THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION...WHILE A TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE HUDSON AND JAMES BAY
REGIONS SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. ON THE MEAN...THIS PATTERN
SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHORTWAVES WILL
PERIODICALLY ROTATE AROUND THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND THROUGH THE
TROUGH IN NW FLOW...AND BRING PERIODIC INCREASES IN MID AND UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE. THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONTS...ONE MOVING THROUGH
FRI NIGHT AND SAT SHOULD BE MOISTURE STARVED AND NOT PRODUCE MORE
THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. LATE IN THE PERIOD...ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE AREA. THIS COLD FRONT NEARING THE OH VALLEY LATE
ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY SHOULD HAVE A BIT MORE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH.

LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER UNTIL
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES NEAR THE VA BORDER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN A BRING AN
AIR MASS THAT WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COLDER...WITH LOWER
DEW POINTS AND LESS HUMIDITY BEING MORE NOTICEABLE. HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE MID 80S SHOULD BE COMMON FOR THU INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. LOWS
WILL AVERAGE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO END THE WEEK...IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S. IF DRY ENOUGH AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY...A FEW OF THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS IN THE NORTH...NORTH
OF THE MTN PARKWAY COULD DROP TO 59 OR SO NO FRIDAY OR SATURDAY
MORNINGS. PATCHY VALLEY FOG SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP EACH MORNING FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SLIGHT POPS WERE USED LATE IN THE
PERIOD...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 806 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS AT SME THROUGH 01Z AS CONVECTION MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. AT LOZ...EXPECT A SLIGHTLY LATER
ARRIVAL AND LIKELY LESS INTENSE. HAVE GONE FOR A HALF HOUR WINDOW
OF MVFR ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION BETWEEN 01 AND 02Z.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE ISOLATED ENOUGH TO FOREGO ANY
VCTS MENTION. FOG WILL THEN SET IN OVERNIGHT...AND CONTINUED TO
MENTION LIFR OR WORSE FOG ACROSS THE BOARD GIVEN THE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT AND POTENTIALLY CLEARER SKIES OVERHEAD COMPARED TO
LAST NIGHT. FOG WILL BURN OFF BY AROUND 13Z...WITH ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED CONVECTION LIKELY THREATENING THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN





000
FXUS63 KJKL 290007 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
807 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 806 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

MOST CONVECTION EAST OF I-75 HAS WANED...BESIDES A FEW STRAY
LIGHT RETURNS AT TIMES. THE BEST COVERAGE IS CURRENTLY ALIGNED
WEST OF I-75...ASSOCIATED WITH SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
A FAIRLY UNTAPPED ENVIRONMENT. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION SHORT TERM
MODELS SHOW THIS AREA OF CONVERGENCE WEAKENING AFTER 01Z...SO HAVE
CONTINUED TO ALIGN THE BEST POPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO...BEFORE DWINDLING. WILL HANG ONTO SLIGHT POPS
ELSEWHERE THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT...BEFORE GOING DRY. LOW
TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 AND PLENTY OF FOG LOOK ON TRACK OVERNIGHT.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA SLOWLY SHIFTING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
AS THEY DEVELOP. THE MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON BEING THE HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL WITH PWATS IN THE 1.8 TO 2.2 RANGE AND PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY. THIS HAS BEEN OCCURRING WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE
OVERHEAD WITH A FADED SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHING ACROSS THE AREA.
DUE TO THE SATURATED AIRMASS IN PLACE AND INSTABILITY IN
PLACE...WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS WELL INTO THE EVENING TONIGHT AS
PERSISTENCE WOULD ALSO SUGGEST THIS. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN THE HWO. THIS HAS ALSO
TEMPERED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.

HEADING INTO TONIGHT...LINGERING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH THIS
SATURATED AIRMASS IN PLACE. WITH THIS INSTABILITY WILL BE SLOW TO
WANE ALONG WITH PWATS STILL IN THE 2 INCH RANGE. A BRIEF BREAK IN
PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER WILL LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT
AND WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING IN THE LOWER 70S WITH SOME MID
70S...FOG WILL BE DENSE IN SOME AREAS. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND REMAIN PRONOUNCED WITH A BETTER DEFINED
FEATURE ON THE WAY IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT. THIS WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT FOR CONTINUED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO
THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY. IN FACT...INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PWAT
VALUES JUMP BEYOND THE 2 INCH RANGE WITH MODEL PROFILES SATURATED
TO NEARLY 500MB IN MOST LOCATIONS. FOR THIS...HAVE PUT LIKELY POPS
WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SPC HAS ALSO MENTIONED
A MARGINAL WIND THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT BUT THE
MAIN IMPACT WILL AGAIN BE SLOW STORM MOTION WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLY CAUSING SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES.

IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL...TEMPERATURES WILL REACH TO
AROUND 90 ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING
AROUND 100 POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS ADDING ANOTHER IMPACT TO BE
MINDFUL OF.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A CLOSED LOW
CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWER OH VALLEY REGION. AT
THAT POINT...RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WITH ANOTHER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGION. TO START THE
PERIOD...A SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER
ONTARIO SHOULD BE NEARING OR MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING EAST TOWARD THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION IN ITS WAKE.

DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE INITIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHOULD
RETROGRADE WEST TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND THEN THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION...WHILE A TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE HUDSON AND JAMES BAY
REGIONS SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. ON THE MEAN...THIS PATTERN
SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHORTWAVES WILL
PERIODICALLY ROTATE AROUND THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND THROUGH THE
TROUGH IN NW FLOW...AND BRING PERIODIC INCREASES IN MID AND UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE. THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONTS...ONE MOVING THROUGH
FRI NIGHT AND SAT SHOULD BE MOISTURE STARVED AND NOT PRODUCE MORE
THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. LATE IN THE PERIOD...ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE AREA. THIS COLD FRONT NEARING THE OH VALLEY LATE
ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY SHOULD HAVE A BIT MORE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH.

LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER UNTIL
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES NEAR THE VA BORDER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN A BRING AN
AIRMASS THAT WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COLDER...WITH LOWER
DEWPOINTS AND LESS HUMIDITY BEING MORE NOTICEABLE. HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE MID 80S SHOULD BE COMMON FOR THU INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE WARMING
INTO THE UPPER 80S ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. LOWS WILL AVERAGE
A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO END THE WEEK...IN THE LOW TO MID
60S. IF DRY ENOUGH AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...A FEW OF THE
NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS IN THE NORTH...NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY COULD
DROP TO 59 OR SO NO FRIDAY OR SATURDAY MORNINGS. PATCHY VALLEY FOG
SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP EACH MORNING FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SLIGHT
POPS WERE USED LATE IN THE PERIOD...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 806 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS AT SME THROUGH 01Z AS CONVECTION MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. AT LOZ...EXPECT A SLIGHTLY LATER
ARRIVAL AND LIKELY LESS INTENSE. HAVE GONE FOR A HALF HOUR WINDOW
OF MVFR ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION BETWEEN 01 AND 02Z.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE ISOLATED ENOUGH TO FOREGO ANY
VCTS MENTION. FOG WILL THEN SET IN OVERNIGHT...AND CONTINUED TO
MENTION LIFR OR WORSE FOG ACROSS THE BOARD GIVEN THE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT AND POTENTIALLY CLEARER SKIES OVERHEAD COMPARED TO
LAST NIGHT. FOG WILL BURN OFF BY AROUND 13Z...WITH ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED CONVECTION LIKELY THREATENING THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN




000
FXUS63 KJKL 290007 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
807 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 806 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

MOST CONVECTION EAST OF I-75 HAS WANED...BESIDES A FEW STRAY
LIGHT RETURNS AT TIMES. THE BEST COVERAGE IS CURRENTLY ALIGNED
WEST OF I-75...ASSOCIATED WITH SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
A FAIRLY UNTAPPED ENVIRONMENT. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION SHORT TERM
MODELS SHOW THIS AREA OF CONVERGENCE WEAKENING AFTER 01Z...SO HAVE
CONTINUED TO ALIGN THE BEST POPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO...BEFORE DWINDLING. WILL HANG ONTO SLIGHT POPS
ELSEWHERE THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT...BEFORE GOING DRY. LOW
TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 AND PLENTY OF FOG LOOK ON TRACK OVERNIGHT.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA SLOWLY SHIFTING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
AS THEY DEVELOP. THE MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON BEING THE HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL WITH PWATS IN THE 1.8 TO 2.2 RANGE AND PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY. THIS HAS BEEN OCCURRING WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE
OVERHEAD WITH A FADED SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHING ACROSS THE AREA.
DUE TO THE SATURATED AIRMASS IN PLACE AND INSTABILITY IN
PLACE...WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS WELL INTO THE EVENING TONIGHT AS
PERSISTENCE WOULD ALSO SUGGEST THIS. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN THE HWO. THIS HAS ALSO
TEMPERED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.

HEADING INTO TONIGHT...LINGERING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH THIS
SATURATED AIRMASS IN PLACE. WITH THIS INSTABILITY WILL BE SLOW TO
WANE ALONG WITH PWATS STILL IN THE 2 INCH RANGE. A BRIEF BREAK IN
PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER WILL LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT
AND WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING IN THE LOWER 70S WITH SOME MID
70S...FOG WILL BE DENSE IN SOME AREAS. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND REMAIN PRONOUNCED WITH A BETTER DEFINED
FEATURE ON THE WAY IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT. THIS WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT FOR CONTINUED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO
THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY. IN FACT...INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PWAT
VALUES JUMP BEYOND THE 2 INCH RANGE WITH MODEL PROFILES SATURATED
TO NEARLY 500MB IN MOST LOCATIONS. FOR THIS...HAVE PUT LIKELY POPS
WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SPC HAS ALSO MENTIONED
A MARGINAL WIND THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT BUT THE
MAIN IMPACT WILL AGAIN BE SLOW STORM MOTION WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLY CAUSING SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES.

IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL...TEMPERATURES WILL REACH TO
AROUND 90 ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING
AROUND 100 POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS ADDING ANOTHER IMPACT TO BE
MINDFUL OF.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A CLOSED LOW
CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWER OH VALLEY REGION. AT
THAT POINT...RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WITH ANOTHER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGION. TO START THE
PERIOD...A SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER
ONTARIO SHOULD BE NEARING OR MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING EAST TOWARD THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION IN ITS WAKE.

DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE INITIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHOULD
RETROGRADE WEST TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND THEN THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION...WHILE A TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE HUDSON AND JAMES BAY
REGIONS SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. ON THE MEAN...THIS PATTERN
SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHORTWAVES WILL
PERIODICALLY ROTATE AROUND THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND THROUGH THE
TROUGH IN NW FLOW...AND BRING PERIODIC INCREASES IN MID AND UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE. THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONTS...ONE MOVING THROUGH
FRI NIGHT AND SAT SHOULD BE MOISTURE STARVED AND NOT PRODUCE MORE
THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. LATE IN THE PERIOD...ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE AREA. THIS COLD FRONT NEARING THE OH VALLEY LATE
ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY SHOULD HAVE A BIT MORE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH.

LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER UNTIL
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES NEAR THE VA BORDER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN A BRING AN
AIRMASS THAT WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COLDER...WITH LOWER
DEWPOINTS AND LESS HUMIDITY BEING MORE NOTICEABLE. HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE MID 80S SHOULD BE COMMON FOR THU INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE WARMING
INTO THE UPPER 80S ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. LOWS WILL AVERAGE
A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO END THE WEEK...IN THE LOW TO MID
60S. IF DRY ENOUGH AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...A FEW OF THE
NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS IN THE NORTH...NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY COULD
DROP TO 59 OR SO NO FRIDAY OR SATURDAY MORNINGS. PATCHY VALLEY FOG
SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP EACH MORNING FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SLIGHT
POPS WERE USED LATE IN THE PERIOD...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 806 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS AT SME THROUGH 01Z AS CONVECTION MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. AT LOZ...EXPECT A SLIGHTLY LATER
ARRIVAL AND LIKELY LESS INTENSE. HAVE GONE FOR A HALF HOUR WINDOW
OF MVFR ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION BETWEEN 01 AND 02Z.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE ISOLATED ENOUGH TO FOREGO ANY
VCTS MENTION. FOG WILL THEN SET IN OVERNIGHT...AND CONTINUED TO
MENTION LIFR OR WORSE FOG ACROSS THE BOARD GIVEN THE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT AND POTENTIALLY CLEARER SKIES OVERHEAD COMPARED TO
LAST NIGHT. FOG WILL BURN OFF BY AROUND 13Z...WITH ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED CONVECTION LIKELY THREATENING THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN





000
FXUS63 KJKL 290007 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
807 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 806 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

MOST CONVECTION EAST OF I-75 HAS WANED...BESIDES A FEW STRAY
LIGHT RETURNS AT TIMES. THE BEST COVERAGE IS CURRENTLY ALIGNED
WEST OF I-75...ASSOCIATED WITH SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
A FAIRLY UNTAPPED ENVIRONMENT. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION SHORT TERM
MODELS SHOW THIS AREA OF CONVERGENCE WEAKENING AFTER 01Z...SO HAVE
CONTINUED TO ALIGN THE BEST POPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO...BEFORE DWINDLING. WILL HANG ONTO SLIGHT POPS
ELSEWHERE THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT...BEFORE GOING DRY. LOW
TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 AND PLENTY OF FOG LOOK ON TRACK OVERNIGHT.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA SLOWLY SHIFTING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
AS THEY DEVELOP. THE MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON BEING THE HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL WITH PWATS IN THE 1.8 TO 2.2 RANGE AND PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY. THIS HAS BEEN OCCURRING WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE
OVERHEAD WITH A FADED SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHING ACROSS THE AREA.
DUE TO THE SATURATED AIRMASS IN PLACE AND INSTABILITY IN
PLACE...WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS WELL INTO THE EVENING TONIGHT AS
PERSISTENCE WOULD ALSO SUGGEST THIS. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN THE HWO. THIS HAS ALSO
TEMPERED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.

HEADING INTO TONIGHT...LINGERING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH THIS
SATURATED AIRMASS IN PLACE. WITH THIS INSTABILITY WILL BE SLOW TO
WANE ALONG WITH PWATS STILL IN THE 2 INCH RANGE. A BRIEF BREAK IN
PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER WILL LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT
AND WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING IN THE LOWER 70S WITH SOME MID
70S...FOG WILL BE DENSE IN SOME AREAS. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND REMAIN PRONOUNCED WITH A BETTER DEFINED
FEATURE ON THE WAY IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT. THIS WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT FOR CONTINUED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO
THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY. IN FACT...INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PWAT
VALUES JUMP BEYOND THE 2 INCH RANGE WITH MODEL PROFILES SATURATED
TO NEARLY 500MB IN MOST LOCATIONS. FOR THIS...HAVE PUT LIKELY POPS
WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SPC HAS ALSO MENTIONED
A MARGINAL WIND THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT BUT THE
MAIN IMPACT WILL AGAIN BE SLOW STORM MOTION WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLY CAUSING SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES.

IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL...TEMPERATURES WILL REACH TO
AROUND 90 ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING
AROUND 100 POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS ADDING ANOTHER IMPACT TO BE
MINDFUL OF.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A CLOSED LOW
CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWER OH VALLEY REGION. AT
THAT POINT...RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WITH ANOTHER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGION. TO START THE
PERIOD...A SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER
ONTARIO SHOULD BE NEARING OR MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING EAST TOWARD THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION IN ITS WAKE.

DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE INITIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHOULD
RETROGRADE WEST TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND THEN THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION...WHILE A TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE HUDSON AND JAMES BAY
REGIONS SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. ON THE MEAN...THIS PATTERN
SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHORTWAVES WILL
PERIODICALLY ROTATE AROUND THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND THROUGH THE
TROUGH IN NW FLOW...AND BRING PERIODIC INCREASES IN MID AND UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE. THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONTS...ONE MOVING THROUGH
FRI NIGHT AND SAT SHOULD BE MOISTURE STARVED AND NOT PRODUCE MORE
THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. LATE IN THE PERIOD...ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE AREA. THIS COLD FRONT NEARING THE OH VALLEY LATE
ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY SHOULD HAVE A BIT MORE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH.

LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER UNTIL
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES NEAR THE VA BORDER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN A BRING AN
AIRMASS THAT WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COLDER...WITH LOWER
DEWPOINTS AND LESS HUMIDITY BEING MORE NOTICEABLE. HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE MID 80S SHOULD BE COMMON FOR THU INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE WARMING
INTO THE UPPER 80S ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. LOWS WILL AVERAGE
A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO END THE WEEK...IN THE LOW TO MID
60S. IF DRY ENOUGH AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...A FEW OF THE
NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS IN THE NORTH...NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY COULD
DROP TO 59 OR SO NO FRIDAY OR SATURDAY MORNINGS. PATCHY VALLEY FOG
SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP EACH MORNING FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SLIGHT
POPS WERE USED LATE IN THE PERIOD...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 806 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS AT SME THROUGH 01Z AS CONVECTION MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. AT LOZ...EXPECT A SLIGHTLY LATER
ARRIVAL AND LIKELY LESS INTENSE. HAVE GONE FOR A HALF HOUR WINDOW
OF MVFR ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION BETWEEN 01 AND 02Z.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE ISOLATED ENOUGH TO FOREGO ANY
VCTS MENTION. FOG WILL THEN SET IN OVERNIGHT...AND CONTINUED TO
MENTION LIFR OR WORSE FOG ACROSS THE BOARD GIVEN THE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT AND POTENTIALLY CLEARER SKIES OVERHEAD COMPARED TO
LAST NIGHT. FOG WILL BURN OFF BY AROUND 13Z...WITH ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED CONVECTION LIKELY THREATENING THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN





000
FXUS63 KJKL 290007 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
807 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 806 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

MOST CONVECTION EAST OF I-75 HAS WANED...BESIDES A FEW STRAY
LIGHT RETURNS AT TIMES. THE BEST COVERAGE IS CURRENTLY ALIGNED
WEST OF I-75...ASSOCIATED WITH SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
A FAIRLY UNTAPPED ENVIRONMENT. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION SHORT TERM
MODELS SHOW THIS AREA OF CONVERGENCE WEAKENING AFTER 01Z...SO HAVE
CONTINUED TO ALIGN THE BEST POPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO...BEFORE DWINDLING. WILL HANG ONTO SLIGHT POPS
ELSEWHERE THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT...BEFORE GOING DRY. LOW
TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 AND PLENTY OF FOG LOOK ON TRACK OVERNIGHT.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA SLOWLY SHIFTING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
AS THEY DEVELOP. THE MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON BEING THE HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL WITH PWATS IN THE 1.8 TO 2.2 RANGE AND PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY. THIS HAS BEEN OCCURRING WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE
OVERHEAD WITH A FADED SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHING ACROSS THE AREA.
DUE TO THE SATURATED AIRMASS IN PLACE AND INSTABILITY IN
PLACE...WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS WELL INTO THE EVENING TONIGHT AS
PERSISTENCE WOULD ALSO SUGGEST THIS. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN THE HWO. THIS HAS ALSO
TEMPERED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.

HEADING INTO TONIGHT...LINGERING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH THIS
SATURATED AIRMASS IN PLACE. WITH THIS INSTABILITY WILL BE SLOW TO
WANE ALONG WITH PWATS STILL IN THE 2 INCH RANGE. A BRIEF BREAK IN
PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER WILL LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT
AND WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING IN THE LOWER 70S WITH SOME MID
70S...FOG WILL BE DENSE IN SOME AREAS. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND REMAIN PRONOUNCED WITH A BETTER DEFINED
FEATURE ON THE WAY IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT. THIS WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT FOR CONTINUED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO
THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY. IN FACT...INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PWAT
VALUES JUMP BEYOND THE 2 INCH RANGE WITH MODEL PROFILES SATURATED
TO NEARLY 500MB IN MOST LOCATIONS. FOR THIS...HAVE PUT LIKELY POPS
WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SPC HAS ALSO MENTIONED
A MARGINAL WIND THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT BUT THE
MAIN IMPACT WILL AGAIN BE SLOW STORM MOTION WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLY CAUSING SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES.

IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL...TEMPERATURES WILL REACH TO
AROUND 90 ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING
AROUND 100 POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS ADDING ANOTHER IMPACT TO BE
MINDFUL OF.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A CLOSED LOW
CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWER OH VALLEY REGION. AT
THAT POINT...RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WITH ANOTHER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGION. TO START THE
PERIOD...A SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER
ONTARIO SHOULD BE NEARING OR MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING EAST TOWARD THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION IN ITS WAKE.

DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE INITIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHOULD
RETROGRADE WEST TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND THEN THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION...WHILE A TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE HUDSON AND JAMES BAY
REGIONS SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. ON THE MEAN...THIS PATTERN
SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHORTWAVES WILL
PERIODICALLY ROTATE AROUND THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND THROUGH THE
TROUGH IN NW FLOW...AND BRING PERIODIC INCREASES IN MID AND UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE. THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONTS...ONE MOVING THROUGH
FRI NIGHT AND SAT SHOULD BE MOISTURE STARVED AND NOT PRODUCE MORE
THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. LATE IN THE PERIOD...ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE AREA. THIS COLD FRONT NEARING THE OH VALLEY LATE
ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY SHOULD HAVE A BIT MORE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH.

LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER UNTIL
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES NEAR THE VA BORDER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN A BRING AN
AIRMASS THAT WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COLDER...WITH LOWER
DEWPOINTS AND LESS HUMIDITY BEING MORE NOTICEABLE. HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE MID 80S SHOULD BE COMMON FOR THU INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE WARMING
INTO THE UPPER 80S ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. LOWS WILL AVERAGE
A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO END THE WEEK...IN THE LOW TO MID
60S. IF DRY ENOUGH AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...A FEW OF THE
NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS IN THE NORTH...NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY COULD
DROP TO 59 OR SO NO FRIDAY OR SATURDAY MORNINGS. PATCHY VALLEY FOG
SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP EACH MORNING FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SLIGHT
POPS WERE USED LATE IN THE PERIOD...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 806 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS AT SME THROUGH 01Z AS CONVECTION MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. AT LOZ...EXPECT A SLIGHTLY LATER
ARRIVAL AND LIKELY LESS INTENSE. HAVE GONE FOR A HALF HOUR WINDOW
OF MVFR ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION BETWEEN 01 AND 02Z.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE ISOLATED ENOUGH TO FOREGO ANY
VCTS MENTION. FOG WILL THEN SET IN OVERNIGHT...AND CONTINUED TO
MENTION LIFR OR WORSE FOG ACROSS THE BOARD GIVEN THE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT AND POTENTIALLY CLEARER SKIES OVERHEAD COMPARED TO
LAST NIGHT. FOG WILL BURN OFF BY AROUND 13Z...WITH ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED CONVECTION LIKELY THREATENING THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN




000
FXUS63 KJKL 282024
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
424 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA SLOWLY SHIFTING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
AS THEY DEVELOP. THE MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON BEING THE HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL WITH PWATS IN THE 1.8 TO 2.2 RANGE AND PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY. THIS HAS BEEN OCCURRING WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE
OVERHEAD WITH A FADED SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHING ACROSS THE AREA.
DUE TO THE SATURATED AIRMASS IN PLACE AND INSTABILITY IN
PLACE...WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS WELL INTO THE EVENING TONIGHT AS
PERSISTENCE WOULD ALSO SUGGEST THIS. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN THE HWO. THIS HAS ALSO
TEMPERED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.

HEADING INTO TONIGHT...LINGERING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH THIS
SATURATED AIRMASS IN PLACE. WITH THIS INSTABILITY WILL BE SLOW TO
WANE ALONG WITH PWATS STILL IN THE 2 INCH RANGE. A BRIEF BREAK IN
PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER WILL LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT
AND WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING IN THE LOWER 70S WITH SOME MID
70S...FOG WILL BE DENSE IN SOME AREAS. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND REMAIN PRONOUNCED WITH A BETTER DEFINED
FEATURE ON THE WAY IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT. THIS WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT FOR CONTINUED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO
THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY. IN FACT...INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PWAT
VALUES JUMP BEYOND THE 2 INCH RANGE WITH MODEL PROFILES SATURATED
TO NEARLY 500MB IN MOST LOCATIONS. FOR THIS...HAVE PUT LIKELY POPS
WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SPC HAS ALSO MENTIONED
A MARGINAL WIND THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT BUT THE
MAIN IMPACT WILL AGAIN BE SLOW STORM MOTION WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLY CAUSING SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES.

IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL...TEMPERATURES WILL REACH TO
AROUND 90 ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING
AROUND 100 POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS ADDING ANOTHER IMPACT TO BE
MINDFUL OF.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A CLOSED LOW
CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWER OH VALLEY REGION. AT
THAT POINT...RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WITH ANOTHER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGION. TO START THE
PERIOD...A SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER
ONTARIO SHOULD BE NEARING OR MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING EAST TOWARD THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION IN ITS WAKE.

DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE INITIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHOULD
RETROGRADE WEST TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND THEN THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION...WHILE A TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE HUDSON AND JAMES BAY
REGIONS SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. ON THE MEAN...THIS PATTERN
SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHORTWAVES WILL
PERIODICALLY ROTATE AROUND THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND THROUGH THE
TROUGH IN NW FLOW...AND BRING PERIODIC INCREASES IN MID AND UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE. THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONTS...ONE MOVING THROUGH
FRI NIGHT AND SAT SHOULD BE MOISTURE STARVED AND NOT PRODUCE MORE
THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. LATE IN THE PERIOD...ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE AREA. THIS COLD FRONT NEARING THE OH VALLEY LATE
ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY SHOULD HAVE A BIT MORE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH.

LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER UNTIL
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES NEAR THE VA BORDER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN A BRING AN
AIRMASS THAT WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COLDER...WITH LOWER
DEWPOINTS AND LESS HUMIDITY BEING MORE NOTICEABLE. HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE MID 80S SHOULD BE COMMON FOR THU INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE WARMING
INTO THE UPPER 80S ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. LOWS WILL AVERAGE
A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO END THE WEEK...IN THE LOW TO MID
60S. IF DRY ENOUGH AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...A FEW OF THE
NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS IN THE NORTH...NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY COULD
DROP TO 59 OR SO NO FRIDAY OR SATURDAY MORNINGS. PATCHY VALLEY FOG
SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP EACH MORNING FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SLIGHT
POPS WERE USED LATE IN THE PERIOD...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA HAS THINNED OUT FOR THE DAY AS
HEATING CONTINUES INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH THIS VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BUT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXPECTED...HAVE
PUT IN VCTS BUT ANY LOCATIONS THAT DOES GET A CELL MOVE OVER WILL
SEE BRIEF IFR AND BELOW CONDITIONS. AFTER CONVECTION WANES AFTER
02Z...A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR BEFORE FOG FORMATION
OCCURS TONIGHT. WITH THE AIR MASS IN PLACE AND THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
EARLIER IN THE DAY...FOG WILL BE DENSE IN SOME AREAS AND HAVE PUT
BELOW FIELD MIN CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT. SITES SHOULD
IMPROVE BY 14Z TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE CU BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN
FOR THE DAY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER





000
FXUS63 KJKL 282001
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
401 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA SLOWLY SHIFTING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
AS THEY DEVELOP. THE MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON BEING THE HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL WITH PWATS IN THE 1.8 TO 2.2 RANGE AND PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY. THIS HAS BEEN OCCURRING WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE
OVERHEAD WITH A FADED SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHING ACROSS THE AREA.
DUE TO THE SATURATED AIRMASS IN PLACE AND INSTABILITY IN
PLACE...WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS WELL INTO THE EVENING TONIGHT AS
PERSISTENCE WOULD ALSO SUGGEST THIS. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN THE HWO. THIS HAS ALSO
TEMPERED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.

HEADING INTO TONIGHT...LINGERING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH THIS
SATURATED AIRMASS IN PLACE. WITH THIS INSTABILITY WILL BE SLOW TO
WANE ALONG WITH PWATS STILL IN THE 2 INCH RANGE. A BRIEF BREAK IN
PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER WILL LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT
AND WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING IN THE LOWER 70S WITH SOME MID
70S...FOG WILL BE DENSE IN SOME AREAS. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND REMAIN PRONOUNCED WITH A BETTER DEFINED
FEATURE ON THE WAY IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT. THIS WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT FOR CONTINUED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO
THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY. IN FACT...INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PWAT
VALUES JUMP BEYOND THE 2 INCH RANGE WITH MODEL PROFILES SATURATED
TO NEARLY 500MB IN MOST LOCATIONS. FOR THIS...HAVE PUT LIKELY POPS
WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SPC HAS ALSO MENTIONED
A MARGINAL WIND THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT BUT THE
MAIN IMPACT WILL AGAIN BE SLOW STORM MOTION WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLY CAUSING SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES.

IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL...TEMPERATURES WILL REACH TO
AROUND 90 ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING
AROUND 100 POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS ADDING ANOTHER IMPACT TO BE
MINDFUL OF.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA HAS THINNED OUT FOR THE DAY AS
HEATING CONTINUES INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH THIS VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BUT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXPECTED...HAVE
PUT IN VCTS BUT ANY LOCATIONS THAT DOES GET A CELL MOVE OVER WILL
SEE BRIEF IFR AND BELOW CONDITIONS. AFTER CONVECTION WANES AFTER
02Z...A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR BEFORE FOG FORMATION
OCCURS TONIGHT. WITH THE AIR MASS IN PLACE AND THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
EARLIER IN THE DAY...FOG WILL BE DENSE IN SOME AREAS AND HAVE PUT
BELOW FIELD MIN CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT. SITES SHOULD
IMPROVE BY 14Z TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE CU BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN
FOR THE DAY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER





000
FXUS63 KJKL 282001
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
401 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA SLOWLY SHIFTING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
AS THEY DEVELOP. THE MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON BEING THE HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL WITH PWATS IN THE 1.8 TO 2.2 RANGE AND PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY. THIS HAS BEEN OCCURRING WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE
OVERHEAD WITH A FADED SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHING ACROSS THE AREA.
DUE TO THE SATURATED AIRMASS IN PLACE AND INSTABILITY IN
PLACE...WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS WELL INTO THE EVENING TONIGHT AS
PERSISTENCE WOULD ALSO SUGGEST THIS. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN THE HWO. THIS HAS ALSO
TEMPERED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.

HEADING INTO TONIGHT...LINGERING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH THIS
SATURATED AIRMASS IN PLACE. WITH THIS INSTABILITY WILL BE SLOW TO
WANE ALONG WITH PWATS STILL IN THE 2 INCH RANGE. A BRIEF BREAK IN
PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER WILL LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT
AND WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING IN THE LOWER 70S WITH SOME MID
70S...FOG WILL BE DENSE IN SOME AREAS. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND REMAIN PRONOUNCED WITH A BETTER DEFINED
FEATURE ON THE WAY IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT. THIS WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT FOR CONTINUED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO
THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY. IN FACT...INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PWAT
VALUES JUMP BEYOND THE 2 INCH RANGE WITH MODEL PROFILES SATURATED
TO NEARLY 500MB IN MOST LOCATIONS. FOR THIS...HAVE PUT LIKELY POPS
WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SPC HAS ALSO MENTIONED
A MARGINAL WIND THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT BUT THE
MAIN IMPACT WILL AGAIN BE SLOW STORM MOTION WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLY CAUSING SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES.

IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL...TEMPERATURES WILL REACH TO
AROUND 90 ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING
AROUND 100 POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS ADDING ANOTHER IMPACT TO BE
MINDFUL OF.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA HAS THINNED OUT FOR THE DAY AS
HEATING CONTINUES INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH THIS VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BUT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXPECTED...HAVE
PUT IN VCTS BUT ANY LOCATIONS THAT DOES GET A CELL MOVE OVER WILL
SEE BRIEF IFR AND BELOW CONDITIONS. AFTER CONVECTION WANES AFTER
02Z...A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR BEFORE FOG FORMATION
OCCURS TONIGHT. WITH THE AIR MASS IN PLACE AND THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
EARLIER IN THE DAY...FOG WILL BE DENSE IN SOME AREAS AND HAVE PUT
BELOW FIELD MIN CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT. SITES SHOULD
IMPROVE BY 14Z TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE CU BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN
FOR THE DAY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER




000
FXUS63 KJKL 281743
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
143 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

CURRENTLY...CONVECTION HAS FINALLY BEGUN OVER THE AREA WITH SOME
SHOWERS AND A STORM OR TWO DEVELOPING OVER AND JUST WEST OF THE
I-75 CORRIDOR. SOME LOWER CIGS AROUND 3 KFT REMAIN OVER THE AREA
AND THIS HAS INHIBITED TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA IN THOSE LOCATIONS.
HAVE FRESHENED UP THE GRIDS WITH THE LATEST OBS AND SENT THEM TO
NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. STILL...WITH SLOW MOVING CELLS STILL
EXPECTED INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...SOME HEAVY RAINFALL IS
STILL POSSIBLE AND POSSIBLY LASTING LONGER INTO THE EVENING
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE A VERY MOIST AND HUMID
MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. THE AREAS OF FOG HAVE DISSIPATED AND SO
HAVE REMOVED FOG FROM THE FORECAST. A REMNANT BOUNDARY STILL LIES
ACROSS EASTERN KY AND AS SUCH THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE LARGE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND HUMID CONDITIONS...SOME HEAVY RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WITH A CONTINUED
SLOW STORM MOTION. AN UPDATED ZFP AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO
REMOVE FOG AND HIGHLIGHT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AGAIN
TODAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 738 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

ONLY MINOR NEAR TERM CHANGES WERE MADE BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN ATMOSPHERE WITH ONLY VERY WEAK
FEATURES AND LIGHT FLOW ALOFT IN OUR REGION...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH CENTERED TO OUR SW. CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHTLY WARMER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. WILL
EXPECTED SCATTERED CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP AFTER HEATING BOTH
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. IT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIE THIS EVENING WITH
LOSS OF HEATING. WITH LIGHT FLOW AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WHILE BROAD RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
CONUS...INCLUDING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION...TO START THE
PERIOD...A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE TRAVERSING FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL HAVE MADE IT TO
CENTRAL ONTARIO BY 0Z THURSDAY...AND WILL THEN CHANGE COURSE TOWARDS
THE NE. AS IT CONTINUES ON THIS TRACK...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL
BEGIN FALLING ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE RIDGE GETS PUSHED FARTHER
BACK AND EAST. THE LOW WILL THEN BECOME STALLED OVER HUDSON
BAY...KEEPING THE BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
AND MIDWEST CONUS...WHILE CONTINUING TO PUSH THE RIDGE FARTHER
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE 4 CORNER STATES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT
THIS TROUGHING PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EVEN INTO
NEXT WEEK...WITH HEIGHTS OSCILLATING FROM HIGHER TO LOWER AS THE LOW
ROTATES BACK AND FORTH AROUND THE HUDSON BAY AREA.

AS IT RELATES TO OUR CWA...THIS LOWERING OF HEIGHTS AND INCOMING
TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE TO NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE
TROUGH...HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MAY BE ENOUGH TO
WARD OFF ANY PRECIP CHANCES AS THESE WAVES/BOUNDARIES NEAR THE
REGION.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES ACROSS
ONTARIO...PULLING A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH IT. A
COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD FROM THE SURFACE LOW...ACROSS
MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AT 0Z THURSDAY. IT WILL
QUICKLY SWIPE EASTWARD AND ACROSS KY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE LACKING...WITH VERY LITTLE CAPE AND A STRONG
SURFACE INVERSION...SO NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER THROUGH 12Z. BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z...INSTABILITY IMPROVES
WITH DAYTIME HEATING...HOWEVER THE SURFACE INVERSION WILL LIFT TO
THE MID LEVELS. STORMS WOULD NEED TO OVERCOME THIS INVERSION TO
PRODUCE ANY STRONG TO SEVERE ACTIVITY. AND GIVEN THE VERY FAST
NATURE OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY...DON/T EXPECT TRAINING OR
LINGERING OF HEAVY RAINING STORMS TO BE OF MUCH CONCERN.

MODELS START TO LOSE CONTINUITY ON SURFACE SOLUTIONS AFTER THIS
INITIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AND ONWARD...THOUGH
THEY STILL MAINTAIN AGREEMENT IN THE UPPER LEVELS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...WITH DRIER NW FLOW IN PLACE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THE
ECMWF KEEPS OUT ANY MOISTURE CHANCES WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE
WEAKENING BEFORE MAKING IT INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WHILE THE
GFS SHOWS THE PRECIP WEAKENING BUT STILL MAINTAINS SOME SLIGHT
CHANCES ACROSS OUR CWA. A SIMILAR SCENARIO PLAYS OUT FOR ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THE QUESTION WILL BE IF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THESE BOUNDARIES FROM AFFECTING EASTERN KY.
AS IT STANDS NOW...MODEL BLENDS ACTUALLY COME UP WITH GENERALLY
SUB SLIGHT CHANCES DURING BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS...SO DECIDED TO
CONTINUE TO EXCLUDE MENTION OF ANY PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

AFTER THE INITIAL COLD FRONT TUESDAY MORNING...NW FLOW WILL BRING IN
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE MAXIMUM DAYTIME RADIATION...SO
THE TEMP DROP WILL NOT BE THAT GREAT...ONLY A FEW DEGREES FROM THE
DAY BEFORE. PERHAPS MORE NOTICEABLE THAN THE SLIGHT CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE DECREASE IN HUMIDITY...AS LIGHT WINDS AT
THE SURFACE AND NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PROMOTE LOWER RH VALUES. AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED...EXPECT
TEMPS TO GRADUALLY WARM EACH DAY...STAYING IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...MAXIMUM
RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA HAS THINNED OUT FOR THE DAY AS
HEATING CONTINUES INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH THIS VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BUT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXPECTED...HAVE
PUT IN VCTS BUT ANY LOCATIONS THAT DOES GET A CELL MOVE OVER WILL
SEE BRIEF IFR AND BELOW CONDITIONS. AFTER CONVECTION WANES AFTER
02Z...A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR BEFORE FOG FORMATION
OCCURS TONIGHT. WITH THE AIR MASS IN PLACE AND THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
EARLIER IN THE DAY...FOG WILL BE DENSE IN SOME AREAS AND HAVE PUT
BELOW FIELD MIN CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT. SITES SHOULD
IMPROVE BY 14Z TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE CU BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN
FOR THE DAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER





000
FXUS63 KJKL 281743
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
143 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

CURRENTLY...CONVECTION HAS FINALLY BEGUN OVER THE AREA WITH SOME
SHOWERS AND A STORM OR TWO DEVELOPING OVER AND JUST WEST OF THE
I-75 CORRIDOR. SOME LOWER CIGS AROUND 3 KFT REMAIN OVER THE AREA
AND THIS HAS INHIBITED TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA IN THOSE LOCATIONS.
HAVE FRESHENED UP THE GRIDS WITH THE LATEST OBS AND SENT THEM TO
NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. STILL...WITH SLOW MOVING CELLS STILL
EXPECTED INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...SOME HEAVY RAINFALL IS
STILL POSSIBLE AND POSSIBLY LASTING LONGER INTO THE EVENING
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE A VERY MOIST AND HUMID
MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. THE AREAS OF FOG HAVE DISSIPATED AND SO
HAVE REMOVED FOG FROM THE FORECAST. A REMNANT BOUNDARY STILL LIES
ACROSS EASTERN KY AND AS SUCH THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE LARGE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND HUMID CONDITIONS...SOME HEAVY RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WITH A CONTINUED
SLOW STORM MOTION. AN UPDATED ZFP AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO
REMOVE FOG AND HIGHLIGHT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AGAIN
TODAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 738 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

ONLY MINOR NEAR TERM CHANGES WERE MADE BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN ATMOSPHERE WITH ONLY VERY WEAK
FEATURES AND LIGHT FLOW ALOFT IN OUR REGION...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH CENTERED TO OUR SW. CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHTLY WARMER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. WILL
EXPECTED SCATTERED CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP AFTER HEATING BOTH
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. IT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIE THIS EVENING WITH
LOSS OF HEATING. WITH LIGHT FLOW AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WHILE BROAD RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
CONUS...INCLUDING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION...TO START THE
PERIOD...A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE TRAVERSING FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL HAVE MADE IT TO
CENTRAL ONTARIO BY 0Z THURSDAY...AND WILL THEN CHANGE COURSE TOWARDS
THE NE. AS IT CONTINUES ON THIS TRACK...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL
BEGIN FALLING ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE RIDGE GETS PUSHED FARTHER
BACK AND EAST. THE LOW WILL THEN BECOME STALLED OVER HUDSON
BAY...KEEPING THE BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
AND MIDWEST CONUS...WHILE CONTINUING TO PUSH THE RIDGE FARTHER
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE 4 CORNER STATES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT
THIS TROUGHING PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EVEN INTO
NEXT WEEK...WITH HEIGHTS OSCILLATING FROM HIGHER TO LOWER AS THE LOW
ROTATES BACK AND FORTH AROUND THE HUDSON BAY AREA.

AS IT RELATES TO OUR CWA...THIS LOWERING OF HEIGHTS AND INCOMING
TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE TO NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE
TROUGH...HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MAY BE ENOUGH TO
WARD OFF ANY PRECIP CHANCES AS THESE WAVES/BOUNDARIES NEAR THE
REGION.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES ACROSS
ONTARIO...PULLING A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH IT. A
COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD FROM THE SURFACE LOW...ACROSS
MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AT 0Z THURSDAY. IT WILL
QUICKLY SWIPE EASTWARD AND ACROSS KY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE LACKING...WITH VERY LITTLE CAPE AND A STRONG
SURFACE INVERSION...SO NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER THROUGH 12Z. BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z...INSTABILITY IMPROVES
WITH DAYTIME HEATING...HOWEVER THE SURFACE INVERSION WILL LIFT TO
THE MID LEVELS. STORMS WOULD NEED TO OVERCOME THIS INVERSION TO
PRODUCE ANY STRONG TO SEVERE ACTIVITY. AND GIVEN THE VERY FAST
NATURE OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY...DON/T EXPECT TRAINING OR
LINGERING OF HEAVY RAINING STORMS TO BE OF MUCH CONCERN.

MODELS START TO LOSE CONTINUITY ON SURFACE SOLUTIONS AFTER THIS
INITIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AND ONWARD...THOUGH
THEY STILL MAINTAIN AGREEMENT IN THE UPPER LEVELS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...WITH DRIER NW FLOW IN PLACE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THE
ECMWF KEEPS OUT ANY MOISTURE CHANCES WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE
WEAKENING BEFORE MAKING IT INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WHILE THE
GFS SHOWS THE PRECIP WEAKENING BUT STILL MAINTAINS SOME SLIGHT
CHANCES ACROSS OUR CWA. A SIMILAR SCENARIO PLAYS OUT FOR ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THE QUESTION WILL BE IF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THESE BOUNDARIES FROM AFFECTING EASTERN KY.
AS IT STANDS NOW...MODEL BLENDS ACTUALLY COME UP WITH GENERALLY
SUB SLIGHT CHANCES DURING BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS...SO DECIDED TO
CONTINUE TO EXCLUDE MENTION OF ANY PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

AFTER THE INITIAL COLD FRONT TUESDAY MORNING...NW FLOW WILL BRING IN
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE MAXIMUM DAYTIME RADIATION...SO
THE TEMP DROP WILL NOT BE THAT GREAT...ONLY A FEW DEGREES FROM THE
DAY BEFORE. PERHAPS MORE NOTICEABLE THAN THE SLIGHT CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE DECREASE IN HUMIDITY...AS LIGHT WINDS AT
THE SURFACE AND NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PROMOTE LOWER RH VALUES. AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED...EXPECT
TEMPS TO GRADUALLY WARM EACH DAY...STAYING IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...MAXIMUM
RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA HAS THINNED OUT FOR THE DAY AS
HEATING CONTINUES INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH THIS VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BUT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXPECTED...HAVE
PUT IN VCTS BUT ANY LOCATIONS THAT DOES GET A CELL MOVE OVER WILL
SEE BRIEF IFR AND BELOW CONDITIONS. AFTER CONVECTION WANES AFTER
02Z...A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR BEFORE FOG FORMATION
OCCURS TONIGHT. WITH THE AIR MASS IN PLACE AND THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
EARLIER IN THE DAY...FOG WILL BE DENSE IN SOME AREAS AND HAVE PUT
BELOW FIELD MIN CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT. SITES SHOULD
IMPROVE BY 14Z TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE CU BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN
FOR THE DAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER




000
FXUS63 KJKL 281743
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
143 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

CURRENTLY...CONVECTION HAS FINALLY BEGUN OVER THE AREA WITH SOME
SHOWERS AND A STORM OR TWO DEVELOPING OVER AND JUST WEST OF THE
I-75 CORRIDOR. SOME LOWER CIGS AROUND 3 KFT REMAIN OVER THE AREA
AND THIS HAS INHIBITED TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA IN THOSE LOCATIONS.
HAVE FRESHENED UP THE GRIDS WITH THE LATEST OBS AND SENT THEM TO
NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. STILL...WITH SLOW MOVING CELLS STILL
EXPECTED INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...SOME HEAVY RAINFALL IS
STILL POSSIBLE AND POSSIBLY LASTING LONGER INTO THE EVENING
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE A VERY MOIST AND HUMID
MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. THE AREAS OF FOG HAVE DISSIPATED AND SO
HAVE REMOVED FOG FROM THE FORECAST. A REMNANT BOUNDARY STILL LIES
ACROSS EASTERN KY AND AS SUCH THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE LARGE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND HUMID CONDITIONS...SOME HEAVY RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WITH A CONTINUED
SLOW STORM MOTION. AN UPDATED ZFP AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO
REMOVE FOG AND HIGHLIGHT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AGAIN
TODAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 738 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

ONLY MINOR NEAR TERM CHANGES WERE MADE BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN ATMOSPHERE WITH ONLY VERY WEAK
FEATURES AND LIGHT FLOW ALOFT IN OUR REGION...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH CENTERED TO OUR SW. CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHTLY WARMER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. WILL
EXPECTED SCATTERED CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP AFTER HEATING BOTH
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. IT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIE THIS EVENING WITH
LOSS OF HEATING. WITH LIGHT FLOW AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WHILE BROAD RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
CONUS...INCLUDING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION...TO START THE
PERIOD...A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE TRAVERSING FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL HAVE MADE IT TO
CENTRAL ONTARIO BY 0Z THURSDAY...AND WILL THEN CHANGE COURSE TOWARDS
THE NE. AS IT CONTINUES ON THIS TRACK...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL
BEGIN FALLING ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE RIDGE GETS PUSHED FARTHER
BACK AND EAST. THE LOW WILL THEN BECOME STALLED OVER HUDSON
BAY...KEEPING THE BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
AND MIDWEST CONUS...WHILE CONTINUING TO PUSH THE RIDGE FARTHER
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE 4 CORNER STATES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT
THIS TROUGHING PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EVEN INTO
NEXT WEEK...WITH HEIGHTS OSCILLATING FROM HIGHER TO LOWER AS THE LOW
ROTATES BACK AND FORTH AROUND THE HUDSON BAY AREA.

AS IT RELATES TO OUR CWA...THIS LOWERING OF HEIGHTS AND INCOMING
TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE TO NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE
TROUGH...HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MAY BE ENOUGH TO
WARD OFF ANY PRECIP CHANCES AS THESE WAVES/BOUNDARIES NEAR THE
REGION.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES ACROSS
ONTARIO...PULLING A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH IT. A
COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD FROM THE SURFACE LOW...ACROSS
MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AT 0Z THURSDAY. IT WILL
QUICKLY SWIPE EASTWARD AND ACROSS KY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE LACKING...WITH VERY LITTLE CAPE AND A STRONG
SURFACE INVERSION...SO NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER THROUGH 12Z. BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z...INSTABILITY IMPROVES
WITH DAYTIME HEATING...HOWEVER THE SURFACE INVERSION WILL LIFT TO
THE MID LEVELS. STORMS WOULD NEED TO OVERCOME THIS INVERSION TO
PRODUCE ANY STRONG TO SEVERE ACTIVITY. AND GIVEN THE VERY FAST
NATURE OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY...DON/T EXPECT TRAINING OR
LINGERING OF HEAVY RAINING STORMS TO BE OF MUCH CONCERN.

MODELS START TO LOSE CONTINUITY ON SURFACE SOLUTIONS AFTER THIS
INITIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AND ONWARD...THOUGH
THEY STILL MAINTAIN AGREEMENT IN THE UPPER LEVELS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...WITH DRIER NW FLOW IN PLACE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THE
ECMWF KEEPS OUT ANY MOISTURE CHANCES WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE
WEAKENING BEFORE MAKING IT INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WHILE THE
GFS SHOWS THE PRECIP WEAKENING BUT STILL MAINTAINS SOME SLIGHT
CHANCES ACROSS OUR CWA. A SIMILAR SCENARIO PLAYS OUT FOR ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THE QUESTION WILL BE IF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THESE BOUNDARIES FROM AFFECTING EASTERN KY.
AS IT STANDS NOW...MODEL BLENDS ACTUALLY COME UP WITH GENERALLY
SUB SLIGHT CHANCES DURING BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS...SO DECIDED TO
CONTINUE TO EXCLUDE MENTION OF ANY PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

AFTER THE INITIAL COLD FRONT TUESDAY MORNING...NW FLOW WILL BRING IN
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE MAXIMUM DAYTIME RADIATION...SO
THE TEMP DROP WILL NOT BE THAT GREAT...ONLY A FEW DEGREES FROM THE
DAY BEFORE. PERHAPS MORE NOTICEABLE THAN THE SLIGHT CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE DECREASE IN HUMIDITY...AS LIGHT WINDS AT
THE SURFACE AND NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PROMOTE LOWER RH VALUES. AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED...EXPECT
TEMPS TO GRADUALLY WARM EACH DAY...STAYING IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...MAXIMUM
RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA HAS THINNED OUT FOR THE DAY AS
HEATING CONTINUES INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH THIS VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BUT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXPECTED...HAVE
PUT IN VCTS BUT ANY LOCATIONS THAT DOES GET A CELL MOVE OVER WILL
SEE BRIEF IFR AND BELOW CONDITIONS. AFTER CONVECTION WANES AFTER
02Z...A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR BEFORE FOG FORMATION
OCCURS TONIGHT. WITH THE AIR MASS IN PLACE AND THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
EARLIER IN THE DAY...FOG WILL BE DENSE IN SOME AREAS AND HAVE PUT
BELOW FIELD MIN CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT. SITES SHOULD
IMPROVE BY 14Z TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE CU BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN
FOR THE DAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER





000
FXUS63 KJKL 281743
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
143 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

CURRENTLY...CONVECTION HAS FINALLY BEGUN OVER THE AREA WITH SOME
SHOWERS AND A STORM OR TWO DEVELOPING OVER AND JUST WEST OF THE
I-75 CORRIDOR. SOME LOWER CIGS AROUND 3 KFT REMAIN OVER THE AREA
AND THIS HAS INHIBITED TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA IN THOSE LOCATIONS.
HAVE FRESHENED UP THE GRIDS WITH THE LATEST OBS AND SENT THEM TO
NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. STILL...WITH SLOW MOVING CELLS STILL
EXPECTED INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...SOME HEAVY RAINFALL IS
STILL POSSIBLE AND POSSIBLY LASTING LONGER INTO THE EVENING
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE A VERY MOIST AND HUMID
MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. THE AREAS OF FOG HAVE DISSIPATED AND SO
HAVE REMOVED FOG FROM THE FORECAST. A REMNANT BOUNDARY STILL LIES
ACROSS EASTERN KY AND AS SUCH THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE LARGE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND HUMID CONDITIONS...SOME HEAVY RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WITH A CONTINUED
SLOW STORM MOTION. AN UPDATED ZFP AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO
REMOVE FOG AND HIGHLIGHT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AGAIN
TODAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 738 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

ONLY MINOR NEAR TERM CHANGES WERE MADE BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN ATMOSPHERE WITH ONLY VERY WEAK
FEATURES AND LIGHT FLOW ALOFT IN OUR REGION...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH CENTERED TO OUR SW. CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHTLY WARMER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. WILL
EXPECTED SCATTERED CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP AFTER HEATING BOTH
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. IT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIE THIS EVENING WITH
LOSS OF HEATING. WITH LIGHT FLOW AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WHILE BROAD RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
CONUS...INCLUDING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION...TO START THE
PERIOD...A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE TRAVERSING FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL HAVE MADE IT TO
CENTRAL ONTARIO BY 0Z THURSDAY...AND WILL THEN CHANGE COURSE TOWARDS
THE NE. AS IT CONTINUES ON THIS TRACK...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL
BEGIN FALLING ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE RIDGE GETS PUSHED FARTHER
BACK AND EAST. THE LOW WILL THEN BECOME STALLED OVER HUDSON
BAY...KEEPING THE BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
AND MIDWEST CONUS...WHILE CONTINUING TO PUSH THE RIDGE FARTHER
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE 4 CORNER STATES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT
THIS TROUGHING PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EVEN INTO
NEXT WEEK...WITH HEIGHTS OSCILLATING FROM HIGHER TO LOWER AS THE LOW
ROTATES BACK AND FORTH AROUND THE HUDSON BAY AREA.

AS IT RELATES TO OUR CWA...THIS LOWERING OF HEIGHTS AND INCOMING
TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE TO NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE
TROUGH...HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MAY BE ENOUGH TO
WARD OFF ANY PRECIP CHANCES AS THESE WAVES/BOUNDARIES NEAR THE
REGION.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES ACROSS
ONTARIO...PULLING A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH IT. A
COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD FROM THE SURFACE LOW...ACROSS
MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AT 0Z THURSDAY. IT WILL
QUICKLY SWIPE EASTWARD AND ACROSS KY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE LACKING...WITH VERY LITTLE CAPE AND A STRONG
SURFACE INVERSION...SO NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER THROUGH 12Z. BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z...INSTABILITY IMPROVES
WITH DAYTIME HEATING...HOWEVER THE SURFACE INVERSION WILL LIFT TO
THE MID LEVELS. STORMS WOULD NEED TO OVERCOME THIS INVERSION TO
PRODUCE ANY STRONG TO SEVERE ACTIVITY. AND GIVEN THE VERY FAST
NATURE OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY...DON/T EXPECT TRAINING OR
LINGERING OF HEAVY RAINING STORMS TO BE OF MUCH CONCERN.

MODELS START TO LOSE CONTINUITY ON SURFACE SOLUTIONS AFTER THIS
INITIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AND ONWARD...THOUGH
THEY STILL MAINTAIN AGREEMENT IN THE UPPER LEVELS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...WITH DRIER NW FLOW IN PLACE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THE
ECMWF KEEPS OUT ANY MOISTURE CHANCES WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE
WEAKENING BEFORE MAKING IT INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WHILE THE
GFS SHOWS THE PRECIP WEAKENING BUT STILL MAINTAINS SOME SLIGHT
CHANCES ACROSS OUR CWA. A SIMILAR SCENARIO PLAYS OUT FOR ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THE QUESTION WILL BE IF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THESE BOUNDARIES FROM AFFECTING EASTERN KY.
AS IT STANDS NOW...MODEL BLENDS ACTUALLY COME UP WITH GENERALLY
SUB SLIGHT CHANCES DURING BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS...SO DECIDED TO
CONTINUE TO EXCLUDE MENTION OF ANY PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

AFTER THE INITIAL COLD FRONT TUESDAY MORNING...NW FLOW WILL BRING IN
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE MAXIMUM DAYTIME RADIATION...SO
THE TEMP DROP WILL NOT BE THAT GREAT...ONLY A FEW DEGREES FROM THE
DAY BEFORE. PERHAPS MORE NOTICEABLE THAN THE SLIGHT CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE DECREASE IN HUMIDITY...AS LIGHT WINDS AT
THE SURFACE AND NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PROMOTE LOWER RH VALUES. AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED...EXPECT
TEMPS TO GRADUALLY WARM EACH DAY...STAYING IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...MAXIMUM
RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA HAS THINNED OUT FOR THE DAY AS
HEATING CONTINUES INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH THIS VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BUT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXPECTED...HAVE
PUT IN VCTS BUT ANY LOCATIONS THAT DOES GET A CELL MOVE OVER WILL
SEE BRIEF IFR AND BELOW CONDITIONS. AFTER CONVECTION WANES AFTER
02Z...A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR BEFORE FOG FORMATION
OCCURS TONIGHT. WITH THE AIR MASS IN PLACE AND THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
EARLIER IN THE DAY...FOG WILL BE DENSE IN SOME AREAS AND HAVE PUT
BELOW FIELD MIN CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT. SITES SHOULD
IMPROVE BY 14Z TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE CU BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN
FOR THE DAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER




000
FXUS63 KJKL 281447
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1047 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE A VERY MOIST AND HUMID
MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. THE AREAS OF FOG HAVE DISSIPATED AND SO
HAVE REMOVED FOG FROM THE FORECAST. A REMNANT BOUNDARY STILL LIES
ACROSS EASTERN KY AND AS SUCH THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE LARGE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND HUMID CONDITIONS...SOME HEAVY RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WITH A CONTINUED
SLOW STORM MOTION. AN UPDATED ZFP AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO
REMOVE FOG AND HIGHLIGHT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AGAIN
TODAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 738 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

ONLY MINOR NEAR TERM CHANGES WERE MADE BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN ATMOSPHERE WITH ONLY VERY WEAK
FEATURES AND LIGHT FLOW ALOFT IN OUR REGION...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH CENTERED TO OUR SW. CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHTLY WARMER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. WILL
EXPECTED SCATTERED CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP AFTER HEATING BOTH
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. IT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIE THIS EVENING WITH
LOSS OF HEATING. WITH LIGHT FLOW AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WHILE BROAD RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
CONUS...INCLUDING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION...TO START THE
PERIOD...A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE TRAVERSING FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL HAVE MADE IT TO
CENTRAL ONTARIO BY 0Z THURSDAY...AND WILL THEN CHANGE COURSE TOWARDS
THE NE. AS IT CONTINUES ON THIS TRACK...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL
BEGIN FALLING ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE RIDGE GETS PUSHED FARTHER
BACK AND EAST. THE LOW WILL THEN BECOME STALLED OVER HUDSON
BAY...KEEPING THE BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
AND MIDWEST CONUS...WHILE CONTINUING TO PUSH THE RIDGE FARTHER
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE 4 CORNER STATES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT
THIS TROUGHING PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EVEN INTO
NEXT WEEK...WITH HEIGHTS OSCILLATING FROM HIGHER TO LOWER AS THE LOW
ROTATES BACK AND FORTH AROUND THE HUDSON BAY AREA.

AS IT RELATES TO OUR CWA...THIS LOWERING OF HEIGHTS AND INCOMING
TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE TO NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE
TROUGH...HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MAY BE ENOUGH TO
WARD OFF ANY PRECIP CHANCES AS THESE WAVES/BOUNDARIES NEAR THE
REGION.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES ACROSS
ONTARIO...PULLING A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH IT. A
COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD FROM THE SURFACE LOW...ACROSS
MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AT 0Z THURSDAY. IT WILL
QUICKLY SWIPE EASTWARD AND ACROSS KY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE LACKING...WITH VERY LITTLE CAPE AND A STRONG
SURFACE INVERSION...SO NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER THROUGH 12Z. BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z...INSTABILITY IMPROVES
WITH DAYTIME HEATING...HOWEVER THE SURFACE INVERSION WILL LIFT TO
THE MID LEVELS. STORMS WOULD NEED TO OVERCOME THIS INVERSION TO
PRODUCE ANY STRONG TO SEVERE ACTIVITY. AND GIVEN THE VERY FAST
NATURE OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY...DON/T EXPECT TRAINING OR
LINGERING OF HEAVY RAINING STORMS TO BE OF MUCH CONCERN.

MODELS START TO LOSE CONTINUITY ON SURFACE SOLUTIONS AFTER THIS
INITIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AND ONWARD...THOUGH
THEY STILL MAINTAIN AGREEMENT IN THE UPPER LEVELS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...WITH DRIER NW FLOW IN PLACE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THE
ECMWF KEEPS OUT ANY MOISTURE CHANCES WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE
WEAKENING BEFORE MAKING IT INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WHILE THE
GFS SHOWS THE PRECIP WEAKENING BUT STILL MAINTAINS SOME SLIGHT
CHANCES ACROSS OUR CWA. A SIMILAR SCENARIO PLAYS OUT FOR ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THE QUESTION WILL BE IF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THESE BOUNDARIES FROM AFFECTING EASTERN KY.
AS IT STANDS NOW...MODEL BLENDS ACTUALLY COME UP WITH GENERALLY
SUB SLIGHT CHANCES DURING BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS...SO DECIDED TO
CONTINUE TO EXCLUDE MENTION OF ANY PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

AFTER THE INITIAL COLD FRONT TUESDAY MORNING...NW FLOW WILL BRING IN
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE MAXIMUM DAYTIME RADIATION...SO
THE TEMP DROP WILL NOT BE THAT GREAT...ONLY A FEW DEGREES FROM THE
DAY BEFORE. PERHAPS MORE NOTICEABLE THAN THE SLIGHT CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE DECREASE IN HUMIDITY...AS LIGHT WINDS AT
THE SURFACE AND NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PROMOTE LOWER RH VALUES. AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED...EXPECT
TEMPS TO GRADUALLY WARM EACH DAY...STAYING IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...MAXIMUM
RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 738 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

MAINLY IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...ON THE MOVE TOWARD VFR BY LATE MORNING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING LOCALIZED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. THE CONVECTION
SHOULD DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET. FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE
NIGHT...FIRST IN VALLEYS...BUT THEN SPREADING OUT AND GROWING IN
DEPTH TO BRING IFR TO MOST PLACES BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...HAL




000
FXUS63 KJKL 281447
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1047 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE A VERY MOIST AND HUMID
MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. THE AREAS OF FOG HAVE DISSIPATED AND SO
HAVE REMOVED FOG FROM THE FORECAST. A REMNANT BOUNDARY STILL LIES
ACROSS EASTERN KY AND AS SUCH THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE LARGE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND HUMID CONDITIONS...SOME HEAVY RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WITH A CONTINUED
SLOW STORM MOTION. AN UPDATED ZFP AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO
REMOVE FOG AND HIGHLIGHT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AGAIN
TODAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 738 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

ONLY MINOR NEAR TERM CHANGES WERE MADE BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN ATMOSPHERE WITH ONLY VERY WEAK
FEATURES AND LIGHT FLOW ALOFT IN OUR REGION...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH CENTERED TO OUR SW. CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHTLY WARMER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. WILL
EXPECTED SCATTERED CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP AFTER HEATING BOTH
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. IT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIE THIS EVENING WITH
LOSS OF HEATING. WITH LIGHT FLOW AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WHILE BROAD RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
CONUS...INCLUDING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION...TO START THE
PERIOD...A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE TRAVERSING FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL HAVE MADE IT TO
CENTRAL ONTARIO BY 0Z THURSDAY...AND WILL THEN CHANGE COURSE TOWARDS
THE NE. AS IT CONTINUES ON THIS TRACK...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL
BEGIN FALLING ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE RIDGE GETS PUSHED FARTHER
BACK AND EAST. THE LOW WILL THEN BECOME STALLED OVER HUDSON
BAY...KEEPING THE BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
AND MIDWEST CONUS...WHILE CONTINUING TO PUSH THE RIDGE FARTHER
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE 4 CORNER STATES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT
THIS TROUGHING PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EVEN INTO
NEXT WEEK...WITH HEIGHTS OSCILLATING FROM HIGHER TO LOWER AS THE LOW
ROTATES BACK AND FORTH AROUND THE HUDSON BAY AREA.

AS IT RELATES TO OUR CWA...THIS LOWERING OF HEIGHTS AND INCOMING
TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE TO NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE
TROUGH...HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MAY BE ENOUGH TO
WARD OFF ANY PRECIP CHANCES AS THESE WAVES/BOUNDARIES NEAR THE
REGION.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES ACROSS
ONTARIO...PULLING A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH IT. A
COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD FROM THE SURFACE LOW...ACROSS
MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AT 0Z THURSDAY. IT WILL
QUICKLY SWIPE EASTWARD AND ACROSS KY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE LACKING...WITH VERY LITTLE CAPE AND A STRONG
SURFACE INVERSION...SO NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER THROUGH 12Z. BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z...INSTABILITY IMPROVES
WITH DAYTIME HEATING...HOWEVER THE SURFACE INVERSION WILL LIFT TO
THE MID LEVELS. STORMS WOULD NEED TO OVERCOME THIS INVERSION TO
PRODUCE ANY STRONG TO SEVERE ACTIVITY. AND GIVEN THE VERY FAST
NATURE OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY...DON/T EXPECT TRAINING OR
LINGERING OF HEAVY RAINING STORMS TO BE OF MUCH CONCERN.

MODELS START TO LOSE CONTINUITY ON SURFACE SOLUTIONS AFTER THIS
INITIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AND ONWARD...THOUGH
THEY STILL MAINTAIN AGREEMENT IN THE UPPER LEVELS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...WITH DRIER NW FLOW IN PLACE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THE
ECMWF KEEPS OUT ANY MOISTURE CHANCES WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE
WEAKENING BEFORE MAKING IT INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WHILE THE
GFS SHOWS THE PRECIP WEAKENING BUT STILL MAINTAINS SOME SLIGHT
CHANCES ACROSS OUR CWA. A SIMILAR SCENARIO PLAYS OUT FOR ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THE QUESTION WILL BE IF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THESE BOUNDARIES FROM AFFECTING EASTERN KY.
AS IT STANDS NOW...MODEL BLENDS ACTUALLY COME UP WITH GENERALLY
SUB SLIGHT CHANCES DURING BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS...SO DECIDED TO
CONTINUE TO EXCLUDE MENTION OF ANY PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

AFTER THE INITIAL COLD FRONT TUESDAY MORNING...NW FLOW WILL BRING IN
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE MAXIMUM DAYTIME RADIATION...SO
THE TEMP DROP WILL NOT BE THAT GREAT...ONLY A FEW DEGREES FROM THE
DAY BEFORE. PERHAPS MORE NOTICEABLE THAN THE SLIGHT CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE DECREASE IN HUMIDITY...AS LIGHT WINDS AT
THE SURFACE AND NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PROMOTE LOWER RH VALUES. AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED...EXPECT
TEMPS TO GRADUALLY WARM EACH DAY...STAYING IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...MAXIMUM
RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 738 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

MAINLY IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...ON THE MOVE TOWARD VFR BY LATE MORNING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING LOCALIZED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. THE CONVECTION
SHOULD DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET. FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE
NIGHT...FIRST IN VALLEYS...BUT THEN SPREADING OUT AND GROWING IN
DEPTH TO BRING IFR TO MOST PLACES BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...HAL





000
FXUS63 KJKL 281138 CCA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
738 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 738 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

ONLY MINOR NEAR TERM CHANGES WERE MADE BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN ATMOSPHERE WITH ONLY VERY WEAK
FEATURES AND LIGHT FLOW ALOFT IN OUR REGION...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH CENTERED TO OUR SW. CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHTLY WARMER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. WILL
EXPECTED SCATTERED CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP AFTER HEATING BOTH
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. IT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIE THIS EVENING WITH
LOSS OF HEATING. WITH LIGHT FLOW AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCURR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WHILE BROAD RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
CONUS...INCLUDING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION...TO START THE
PERIOD...A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE TRAVERSING FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL HAVE MADE IT TO
CENTRAL ONTARIO BY 0Z THURSDAY...AND WILL THEN CHANGE COURSE TOWARDS
THE NE. AS IT CONTINUES ON THIS TRACK...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL
BEGIN FALLING ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE RIDGE GETS PUSHED FARTHER
BACK AND EAST. THE LOW WILL THEN BECOME STALLED OVER HUDSON
BAY...KEEPING THE BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
AND MIDWEST CONUS...WHILE CONTINUING TO PUSH THE RIDGE FARTHER
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE 4 CORNER STATES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT
THIS TROUGHING PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EVEN INTO
NEXT WEEK...WITH HEIGHTS OSCILLATING FROM HIGHER TO LOWER AS THE LOW
ROTATES BACK AND FORTH AROUND THE HUDSON BAY AREA.

AS IT RELATES TO OUR CWA...THIS LOWERING OF HEIGHTS AND INCOMING
TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE TO NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE
TROUGH...HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MAY BE ENOUGH TO
WARD OFF ANY PRECIP CHANCES AS THESE WAVES/BOUNDARIES NEAR THE
REGION.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES ACROSS
ONTARIO...PULLING A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH IT. A
COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD FROM THE SURFACE LOW...ACROSS
MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AT 0Z THURSDAY. IT WILL
QUICKLY SWIPE EASTWARD AND ACROSS KY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE LACKING...WITH VERY LITTLE CAPE AND A STRONG
SURFACE INVERSION...SO NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER THROUGH 12Z. BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z...INSTABILITY IMPROVES
WITH DAYTIME HEATING...HOWEVER THE SURFACE INVERSION WILL LIFT TO
THE MID LEVELS. STORMS WOULD NEED TO OVERCOME THIS INVERSION TO
PRODUCE ANY STRONG TO SEVERE ACTIVITY. AND GIVEN THE VERY FAST
NATURE OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY...DON/T EXPECT TRAINING OR
LINGERING OF HEAVY RAINING STORMS TO BE OF MUCH CONCERN.

MODELS START TO LOSE CONTINUITY ON SURFACE SOLUTIONS AFTER THIS
INITIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AND ONWARD...THOUGH
THEY STILL MAINTAIN AGREEMENT IN THE UPPER LEVELS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...WITH DRIER NW FLOW IN PLACE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THE
ECMWF KEEPS OUT ANY MOISTURE CHANCES WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE
WEAKENING BEFORE MAKING IT INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WHILE THE
GFS SHOWS THE PRECIP WEAKENING BUT STILL MAINTAINS SOME SLIGHT
CHANCES ACROSS OUR CWA. A SIMILAR SCENARIO PLAYS OUT FOR ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THE QUESTION WILL BE IF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THESE BOUNDARIES FROM AFFECTING EASTERN KY.
AS IT STANDS NOW...MODEL BLENDS ACTUALLY COME UP WITH GENERALLY
SUB SLIGHT CHANCES DURING BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS...SO DECIDED TO
CONTINUE TO EXCLUDE MENTION OF ANY PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

AFTER THE INITIAL COLD FRONT TUESDAY MORNING...NW FLOW WILL BRING IN
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE MAXIMUM DAYTIME RADIATION...SO
THE TEMP DROP WILL NOT BE THAT GREAT...ONLY A FEW DEGREES FROM THE
DAY BEFORE. PERHAPS MORE NOTICEABLE THAN THE SLIGHT CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE DECREASE IN HUMIDITY...AS LIGHT WINDS AT
THE SURFACE AND NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PROMOTE LOWER RH VALUES. AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED...EXPECT
TEMPS TO GRADUALLY WARM EACH DAY...STAYING IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...MAXIMUM
RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 738 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

MAINLY IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...ON THE MOVE TOWARD VFR BY LATE MORNING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING LOCALIZED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. THE CONVECTION
SHOULD DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET. FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE
NIGHT...FIRST IN VALLEYS...BUT THEN SPREADING OUT AND GROWING IN
DEPTH TO BRING IFR TO MOST PLACES BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...HAL





000
FXUS63 KJKL 281138 CCA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
738 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 738 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

ONLY MINOR NEAR TERM CHANGES WERE MADE BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN ATMOSPHERE WITH ONLY VERY WEAK
FEATURES AND LIGHT FLOW ALOFT IN OUR REGION...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH CENTERED TO OUR SW. CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHTLY WARMER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. WILL
EXPECTED SCATTERED CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP AFTER HEATING BOTH
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. IT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIE THIS EVENING WITH
LOSS OF HEATING. WITH LIGHT FLOW AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCURR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WHILE BROAD RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
CONUS...INCLUDING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION...TO START THE
PERIOD...A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE TRAVERSING FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL HAVE MADE IT TO
CENTRAL ONTARIO BY 0Z THURSDAY...AND WILL THEN CHANGE COURSE TOWARDS
THE NE. AS IT CONTINUES ON THIS TRACK...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL
BEGIN FALLING ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE RIDGE GETS PUSHED FARTHER
BACK AND EAST. THE LOW WILL THEN BECOME STALLED OVER HUDSON
BAY...KEEPING THE BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
AND MIDWEST CONUS...WHILE CONTINUING TO PUSH THE RIDGE FARTHER
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE 4 CORNER STATES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT
THIS TROUGHING PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EVEN INTO
NEXT WEEK...WITH HEIGHTS OSCILLATING FROM HIGHER TO LOWER AS THE LOW
ROTATES BACK AND FORTH AROUND THE HUDSON BAY AREA.

AS IT RELATES TO OUR CWA...THIS LOWERING OF HEIGHTS AND INCOMING
TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE TO NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE
TROUGH...HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MAY BE ENOUGH TO
WARD OFF ANY PRECIP CHANCES AS THESE WAVES/BOUNDARIES NEAR THE
REGION.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES ACROSS
ONTARIO...PULLING A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH IT. A
COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD FROM THE SURFACE LOW...ACROSS
MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AT 0Z THURSDAY. IT WILL
QUICKLY SWIPE EASTWARD AND ACROSS KY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE LACKING...WITH VERY LITTLE CAPE AND A STRONG
SURFACE INVERSION...SO NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER THROUGH 12Z. BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z...INSTABILITY IMPROVES
WITH DAYTIME HEATING...HOWEVER THE SURFACE INVERSION WILL LIFT TO
THE MID LEVELS. STORMS WOULD NEED TO OVERCOME THIS INVERSION TO
PRODUCE ANY STRONG TO SEVERE ACTIVITY. AND GIVEN THE VERY FAST
NATURE OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY...DON/T EXPECT TRAINING OR
LINGERING OF HEAVY RAINING STORMS TO BE OF MUCH CONCERN.

MODELS START TO LOSE CONTINUITY ON SURFACE SOLUTIONS AFTER THIS
INITIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AND ONWARD...THOUGH
THEY STILL MAINTAIN AGREEMENT IN THE UPPER LEVELS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...WITH DRIER NW FLOW IN PLACE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THE
ECMWF KEEPS OUT ANY MOISTURE CHANCES WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE
WEAKENING BEFORE MAKING IT INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WHILE THE
GFS SHOWS THE PRECIP WEAKENING BUT STILL MAINTAINS SOME SLIGHT
CHANCES ACROSS OUR CWA. A SIMILAR SCENARIO PLAYS OUT FOR ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THE QUESTION WILL BE IF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THESE BOUNDARIES FROM AFFECTING EASTERN KY.
AS IT STANDS NOW...MODEL BLENDS ACTUALLY COME UP WITH GENERALLY
SUB SLIGHT CHANCES DURING BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS...SO DECIDED TO
CONTINUE TO EXCLUDE MENTION OF ANY PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

AFTER THE INITIAL COLD FRONT TUESDAY MORNING...NW FLOW WILL BRING IN
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE MAXIMUM DAYTIME RADIATION...SO
THE TEMP DROP WILL NOT BE THAT GREAT...ONLY A FEW DEGREES FROM THE
DAY BEFORE. PERHAPS MORE NOTICEABLE THAN THE SLIGHT CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE DECREASE IN HUMIDITY...AS LIGHT WINDS AT
THE SURFACE AND NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PROMOTE LOWER RH VALUES. AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED...EXPECT
TEMPS TO GRADUALLY WARM EACH DAY...STAYING IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...MAXIMUM
RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 738 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

MAINLY IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...ON THE MOVE TOWARD VFR BY LATE MORNING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING LOCALIZED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. THE CONVECTION
SHOULD DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET. FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE
NIGHT...FIRST IN VALLEYS...BUT THEN SPREADING OUT AND GROWING IN
DEPTH TO BRING IFR TO MOST PLACES BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...HAL




000
FXUS63 KJKL 281138
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
738 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 738 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

ONLY NEAR MINOR TERM CHANGES WERE MADE BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN ATMOSPHERE WITH ONLY VERY WEAK
FEATURES AND LIGHT FLOW ALOFT IN OUR REGION...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH CENTERED TO OUR SW. CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHTLY WARMER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. WILL
EXPECTED SCATTERED CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP AFTER HEATING BOTH
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. IT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIE THIS EVENING WITH
LOSS OF HEATING. WITH LIGHT FLOW AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCURR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WHILE BROAD RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
CONUS...INCLUDING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION...TO START THE
PERIOD...A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE TRAVERSING FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL HAVE MADE IT TO
CENTRAL ONTARIO BY 0Z THURSDAY...AND WILL THEN CHANGE COURSE TOWARDS
THE NE. AS IT CONTINUES ON THIS TRACK...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL
BEGIN FALLING ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE RIDGE GETS PUSHED FARTHER
BACK AND EAST. THE LOW WILL THEN BECOME STALLED OVER HUDSON
BAY...KEEPING THE BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
AND MIDWEST CONUS...WHILE CONTINUING TO PUSH THE RIDGE FARTHER
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE 4 CORNER STATES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT
THIS TROUGHING PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EVEN INTO
NEXT WEEK...WITH HEIGHTS OSCILLATING FROM HIGHER TO LOWER AS THE LOW
ROTATES BACK AND FORTH AROUND THE HUDSON BAY AREA.

AS IT RELATES TO OUR CWA...THIS LOWERING OF HEIGHTS AND INCOMING
TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE TO NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE
TROUGH...HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MAY BE ENOUGH TO
WARD OFF ANY PRECIP CHANCES AS THESE WAVES/BOUNDARIES NEAR THE
REGION.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES ACROSS
ONTARIO...PULLING A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH IT. A
COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD FROM THE SURFACE LOW...ACROSS
MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AT 0Z THURSDAY. IT WILL
QUICKLY SWIPE EASTWARD AND ACROSS KY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE LACKING...WITH VERY LITTLE CAPE AND A STRONG
SURFACE INVERSION...SO NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER THROUGH 12Z. BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z...INSTABILITY IMPROVES
WITH DAYTIME HEATING...HOWEVER THE SURFACE INVERSION WILL LIFT TO
THE MID LEVELS. STORMS WOULD NEED TO OVERCOME THIS INVERSION TO
PRODUCE ANY STRONG TO SEVERE ACTIVITY. AND GIVEN THE VERY FAST
NATURE OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY...DON/T EXPECT TRAINING OR
LINGERING OF HEAVY RAINING STORMS TO BE OF MUCH CONCERN.

MODELS START TO LOSE CONTINUITY ON SURFACE SOLUTIONS AFTER THIS
INITIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AND ONWARD...THOUGH
THEY STILL MAINTAIN AGREEMENT IN THE UPPER LEVELS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...WITH DRIER NW FLOW IN PLACE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THE
ECMWF KEEPS OUT ANY MOISTURE CHANCES WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE
WEAKENING BEFORE MAKING IT INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WHILE THE
GFS SHOWS THE PRECIP WEAKENING BUT STILL MAINTAINS SOME SLIGHT
CHANCES ACROSS OUR CWA. A SIMILAR SCENARIO PLAYS OUT FOR ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THE QUESTION WILL BE IF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THESE BOUNDARIES FROM AFFECTING EASTERN KY.
AS IT STANDS NOW...MODEL BLENDS ACTUALLY COME UP WITH GENERALLY
SUB SLIGHT CHANCES DURING BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS...SO DECIDED TO
CONTINUE TO EXCLUDE MENTION OF ANY PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

AFTER THE INITIAL COLD FRONT TUESDAY MORNING...NW FLOW WILL BRING IN
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE MAXIMUM DAYTIME RADIATION...SO
THE TEMP DROP WILL NOT BE THAT GREAT...ONLY A FEW DEGREES FROM THE
DAY BEFORE. PERHAPS MORE NOTICEABLE THAN THE SLIGHT CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE DECREASE IN HUMIDITY...AS LIGHT WINDS AT
THE SURFACE AND NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PROMOTE LOWER RH VALUES. AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED...EXPECT
TEMPS TO GRADUALLY WARM EACH DAY...STAYING IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...MAXIMUM
RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 738 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

MAINLY IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...ON THE MOVE TOWARD VFR BY LATE MORNING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING LOCALIZED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. THE CONVECTION
SHOULD DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET. FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE
NIGHT...FIRST IN VALLEYS...BUT THEN SPREADING OUT AND GROWING IN
DEPTH TO BRING IFR TO MOST PLACES BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...HAL




000
FXUS63 KJKL 281138
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
738 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 738 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

ONLY NEAR MINOR TERM CHANGES WERE MADE BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN ATMOSPHERE WITH ONLY VERY WEAK
FEATURES AND LIGHT FLOW ALOFT IN OUR REGION...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH CENTERED TO OUR SW. CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHTLY WARMER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. WILL
EXPECTED SCATTERED CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP AFTER HEATING BOTH
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. IT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIE THIS EVENING WITH
LOSS OF HEATING. WITH LIGHT FLOW AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCURR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WHILE BROAD RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
CONUS...INCLUDING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION...TO START THE
PERIOD...A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE TRAVERSING FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL HAVE MADE IT TO
CENTRAL ONTARIO BY 0Z THURSDAY...AND WILL THEN CHANGE COURSE TOWARDS
THE NE. AS IT CONTINUES ON THIS TRACK...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL
BEGIN FALLING ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE RIDGE GETS PUSHED FARTHER
BACK AND EAST. THE LOW WILL THEN BECOME STALLED OVER HUDSON
BAY...KEEPING THE BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
AND MIDWEST CONUS...WHILE CONTINUING TO PUSH THE RIDGE FARTHER
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE 4 CORNER STATES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT
THIS TROUGHING PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EVEN INTO
NEXT WEEK...WITH HEIGHTS OSCILLATING FROM HIGHER TO LOWER AS THE LOW
ROTATES BACK AND FORTH AROUND THE HUDSON BAY AREA.

AS IT RELATES TO OUR CWA...THIS LOWERING OF HEIGHTS AND INCOMING
TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE TO NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE
TROUGH...HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MAY BE ENOUGH TO
WARD OFF ANY PRECIP CHANCES AS THESE WAVES/BOUNDARIES NEAR THE
REGION.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES ACROSS
ONTARIO...PULLING A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH IT. A
COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD FROM THE SURFACE LOW...ACROSS
MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AT 0Z THURSDAY. IT WILL
QUICKLY SWIPE EASTWARD AND ACROSS KY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE LACKING...WITH VERY LITTLE CAPE AND A STRONG
SURFACE INVERSION...SO NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER THROUGH 12Z. BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z...INSTABILITY IMPROVES
WITH DAYTIME HEATING...HOWEVER THE SURFACE INVERSION WILL LIFT TO
THE MID LEVELS. STORMS WOULD NEED TO OVERCOME THIS INVERSION TO
PRODUCE ANY STRONG TO SEVERE ACTIVITY. AND GIVEN THE VERY FAST
NATURE OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY...DON/T EXPECT TRAINING OR
LINGERING OF HEAVY RAINING STORMS TO BE OF MUCH CONCERN.

MODELS START TO LOSE CONTINUITY ON SURFACE SOLUTIONS AFTER THIS
INITIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AND ONWARD...THOUGH
THEY STILL MAINTAIN AGREEMENT IN THE UPPER LEVELS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...WITH DRIER NW FLOW IN PLACE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THE
ECMWF KEEPS OUT ANY MOISTURE CHANCES WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE
WEAKENING BEFORE MAKING IT INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WHILE THE
GFS SHOWS THE PRECIP WEAKENING BUT STILL MAINTAINS SOME SLIGHT
CHANCES ACROSS OUR CWA. A SIMILAR SCENARIO PLAYS OUT FOR ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THE QUESTION WILL BE IF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THESE BOUNDARIES FROM AFFECTING EASTERN KY.
AS IT STANDS NOW...MODEL BLENDS ACTUALLY COME UP WITH GENERALLY
SUB SLIGHT CHANCES DURING BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS...SO DECIDED TO
CONTINUE TO EXCLUDE MENTION OF ANY PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

AFTER THE INITIAL COLD FRONT TUESDAY MORNING...NW FLOW WILL BRING IN
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE MAXIMUM DAYTIME RADIATION...SO
THE TEMP DROP WILL NOT BE THAT GREAT...ONLY A FEW DEGREES FROM THE
DAY BEFORE. PERHAPS MORE NOTICEABLE THAN THE SLIGHT CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE DECREASE IN HUMIDITY...AS LIGHT WINDS AT
THE SURFACE AND NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PROMOTE LOWER RH VALUES. AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED...EXPECT
TEMPS TO GRADUALLY WARM EACH DAY...STAYING IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...MAXIMUM
RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 738 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

MAINLY IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...ON THE MOVE TOWARD VFR BY LATE MORNING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING LOCALIZED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. THE CONVECTION
SHOULD DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET. FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE
NIGHT...FIRST IN VALLEYS...BUT THEN SPREADING OUT AND GROWING IN
DEPTH TO BRING IFR TO MOST PLACES BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...HAL




000
FXUS63 KJKL 281138
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
738 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 738 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

ONLY NEAR MINOR TERM CHANGES WERE MADE BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN ATMOSPHERE WITH ONLY VERY WEAK
FEATURES AND LIGHT FLOW ALOFT IN OUR REGION...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH CENTERED TO OUR SW. CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHTLY WARMER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. WILL
EXPECTED SCATTERED CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP AFTER HEATING BOTH
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. IT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIE THIS EVENING WITH
LOSS OF HEATING. WITH LIGHT FLOW AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCURR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WHILE BROAD RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
CONUS...INCLUDING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION...TO START THE
PERIOD...A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE TRAVERSING FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL HAVE MADE IT TO
CENTRAL ONTARIO BY 0Z THURSDAY...AND WILL THEN CHANGE COURSE TOWARDS
THE NE. AS IT CONTINUES ON THIS TRACK...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL
BEGIN FALLING ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE RIDGE GETS PUSHED FARTHER
BACK AND EAST. THE LOW WILL THEN BECOME STALLED OVER HUDSON
BAY...KEEPING THE BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
AND MIDWEST CONUS...WHILE CONTINUING TO PUSH THE RIDGE FARTHER
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE 4 CORNER STATES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT
THIS TROUGHING PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EVEN INTO
NEXT WEEK...WITH HEIGHTS OSCILLATING FROM HIGHER TO LOWER AS THE LOW
ROTATES BACK AND FORTH AROUND THE HUDSON BAY AREA.

AS IT RELATES TO OUR CWA...THIS LOWERING OF HEIGHTS AND INCOMING
TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE TO NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE
TROUGH...HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MAY BE ENOUGH TO
WARD OFF ANY PRECIP CHANCES AS THESE WAVES/BOUNDARIES NEAR THE
REGION.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES ACROSS
ONTARIO...PULLING A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH IT. A
COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD FROM THE SURFACE LOW...ACROSS
MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AT 0Z THURSDAY. IT WILL
QUICKLY SWIPE EASTWARD AND ACROSS KY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE LACKING...WITH VERY LITTLE CAPE AND A STRONG
SURFACE INVERSION...SO NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER THROUGH 12Z. BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z...INSTABILITY IMPROVES
WITH DAYTIME HEATING...HOWEVER THE SURFACE INVERSION WILL LIFT TO
THE MID LEVELS. STORMS WOULD NEED TO OVERCOME THIS INVERSION TO
PRODUCE ANY STRONG TO SEVERE ACTIVITY. AND GIVEN THE VERY FAST
NATURE OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY...DON/T EXPECT TRAINING OR
LINGERING OF HEAVY RAINING STORMS TO BE OF MUCH CONCERN.

MODELS START TO LOSE CONTINUITY ON SURFACE SOLUTIONS AFTER THIS
INITIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AND ONWARD...THOUGH
THEY STILL MAINTAIN AGREEMENT IN THE UPPER LEVELS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...WITH DRIER NW FLOW IN PLACE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THE
ECMWF KEEPS OUT ANY MOISTURE CHANCES WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE
WEAKENING BEFORE MAKING IT INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WHILE THE
GFS SHOWS THE PRECIP WEAKENING BUT STILL MAINTAINS SOME SLIGHT
CHANCES ACROSS OUR CWA. A SIMILAR SCENARIO PLAYS OUT FOR ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THE QUESTION WILL BE IF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THESE BOUNDARIES FROM AFFECTING EASTERN KY.
AS IT STANDS NOW...MODEL BLENDS ACTUALLY COME UP WITH GENERALLY
SUB SLIGHT CHANCES DURING BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS...SO DECIDED TO
CONTINUE TO EXCLUDE MENTION OF ANY PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

AFTER THE INITIAL COLD FRONT TUESDAY MORNING...NW FLOW WILL BRING IN
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE MAXIMUM DAYTIME RADIATION...SO
THE TEMP DROP WILL NOT BE THAT GREAT...ONLY A FEW DEGREES FROM THE
DAY BEFORE. PERHAPS MORE NOTICEABLE THAN THE SLIGHT CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE DECREASE IN HUMIDITY...AS LIGHT WINDS AT
THE SURFACE AND NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PROMOTE LOWER RH VALUES. AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED...EXPECT
TEMPS TO GRADUALLY WARM EACH DAY...STAYING IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...MAXIMUM
RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 738 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

MAINLY IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...ON THE MOVE TOWARD VFR BY LATE MORNING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING LOCALIZED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. THE CONVECTION
SHOULD DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET. FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE
NIGHT...FIRST IN VALLEYS...BUT THEN SPREADING OUT AND GROWING IN
DEPTH TO BRING IFR TO MOST PLACES BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...HAL





000
FXUS63 KJKL 281138 CCA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
738 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 738 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

ONLY MINOR NEAR TERM CHANGES WERE MADE BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN ATMOSPHERE WITH ONLY VERY WEAK
FEATURES AND LIGHT FLOW ALOFT IN OUR REGION...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH CENTERED TO OUR SW. CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHTLY WARMER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. WILL
EXPECTED SCATTERED CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP AFTER HEATING BOTH
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. IT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIE THIS EVENING WITH
LOSS OF HEATING. WITH LIGHT FLOW AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCURR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WHILE BROAD RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
CONUS...INCLUDING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION...TO START THE
PERIOD...A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE TRAVERSING FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL HAVE MADE IT TO
CENTRAL ONTARIO BY 0Z THURSDAY...AND WILL THEN CHANGE COURSE TOWARDS
THE NE. AS IT CONTINUES ON THIS TRACK...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL
BEGIN FALLING ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE RIDGE GETS PUSHED FARTHER
BACK AND EAST. THE LOW WILL THEN BECOME STALLED OVER HUDSON
BAY...KEEPING THE BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
AND MIDWEST CONUS...WHILE CONTINUING TO PUSH THE RIDGE FARTHER
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE 4 CORNER STATES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT
THIS TROUGHING PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EVEN INTO
NEXT WEEK...WITH HEIGHTS OSCILLATING FROM HIGHER TO LOWER AS THE LOW
ROTATES BACK AND FORTH AROUND THE HUDSON BAY AREA.

AS IT RELATES TO OUR CWA...THIS LOWERING OF HEIGHTS AND INCOMING
TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE TO NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE
TROUGH...HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MAY BE ENOUGH TO
WARD OFF ANY PRECIP CHANCES AS THESE WAVES/BOUNDARIES NEAR THE
REGION.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES ACROSS
ONTARIO...PULLING A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH IT. A
COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD FROM THE SURFACE LOW...ACROSS
MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AT 0Z THURSDAY. IT WILL
QUICKLY SWIPE EASTWARD AND ACROSS KY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE LACKING...WITH VERY LITTLE CAPE AND A STRONG
SURFACE INVERSION...SO NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER THROUGH 12Z. BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z...INSTABILITY IMPROVES
WITH DAYTIME HEATING...HOWEVER THE SURFACE INVERSION WILL LIFT TO
THE MID LEVELS. STORMS WOULD NEED TO OVERCOME THIS INVERSION TO
PRODUCE ANY STRONG TO SEVERE ACTIVITY. AND GIVEN THE VERY FAST
NATURE OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY...DON/T EXPECT TRAINING OR
LINGERING OF HEAVY RAINING STORMS TO BE OF MUCH CONCERN.

MODELS START TO LOSE CONTINUITY ON SURFACE SOLUTIONS AFTER THIS
INITIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AND ONWARD...THOUGH
THEY STILL MAINTAIN AGREEMENT IN THE UPPER LEVELS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...WITH DRIER NW FLOW IN PLACE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THE
ECMWF KEEPS OUT ANY MOISTURE CHANCES WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE
WEAKENING BEFORE MAKING IT INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WHILE THE
GFS SHOWS THE PRECIP WEAKENING BUT STILL MAINTAINS SOME SLIGHT
CHANCES ACROSS OUR CWA. A SIMILAR SCENARIO PLAYS OUT FOR ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THE QUESTION WILL BE IF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THESE BOUNDARIES FROM AFFECTING EASTERN KY.
AS IT STANDS NOW...MODEL BLENDS ACTUALLY COME UP WITH GENERALLY
SUB SLIGHT CHANCES DURING BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS...SO DECIDED TO
CONTINUE TO EXCLUDE MENTION OF ANY PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

AFTER THE INITIAL COLD FRONT TUESDAY MORNING...NW FLOW WILL BRING IN
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE MAXIMUM DAYTIME RADIATION...SO
THE TEMP DROP WILL NOT BE THAT GREAT...ONLY A FEW DEGREES FROM THE
DAY BEFORE. PERHAPS MORE NOTICEABLE THAN THE SLIGHT CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE DECREASE IN HUMIDITY...AS LIGHT WINDS AT
THE SURFACE AND NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PROMOTE LOWER RH VALUES. AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED...EXPECT
TEMPS TO GRADUALLY WARM EACH DAY...STAYING IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...MAXIMUM
RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 738 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

MAINLY IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...ON THE MOVE TOWARD VFR BY LATE MORNING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING LOCALIZED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. THE CONVECTION
SHOULD DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET. FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE
NIGHT...FIRST IN VALLEYS...BUT THEN SPREADING OUT AND GROWING IN
DEPTH TO BRING IFR TO MOST PLACES BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...HAL




000
FXUS63 KJKL 280800
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
400 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN ATMOSPHERE WITH ONLY VERY WEAK
FEATURES AND LIGHT FLOW ALOFT IN OUR REGION...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH CENTERED TO OUR SW. CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHTLY WARMER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. WILL
EXPECTED SCATTERED CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP AFTER HEATING BOTH
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. IT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIE THIS EVENING WITH
LOSS OF HEATING. WITH LIGHT FLOW AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCURR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WHILE BROAD RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
CONUS...INCLUDING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION...TO START THE
PERIOD...A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE TRAVERSING FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL HAVE MADE IT TO
CENTRAL ONTARIO BY 0Z THURSDAY...AND WILL THEN CHANGE COURSE TOWARDS
THE NE. AS IT CONTINUES ON THIS TRACK...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL
BEGIN FALLING ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE RIDGE GETS PUSHED FARTHER
BACK AND EAST. THE LOW WILL THEN BECOME STALLED OVER HUDSON
BAY...KEEPING THE BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
AND MIDWEST CONUS...WHILE CONTINUING TO PUSH THE RIDGE FARTHER
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE 4 CORNER STATES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT
THIS TROUGHING PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EVEN INTO
NEXT WEEK...WITH HEIGHTS OSCILLATING FROM HIGHER TO LOWER AS THE LOW
ROTATES BACK AND FORTH AROUND THE HUDSON BAY AREA.

AS IT RELATES TO OUR CWA...THIS LOWERING OF HEIGHTS AND INCOMING
TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE TO NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE
TROUGH...HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MAY BE ENOUGH TO
WARD OFF ANY PRECIP CHANCES AS THESE WAVES/BOUNDARIES NEAR THE
REGION.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES ACROSS
ONTARIO...PULLING A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH IT. A
COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD FROM THE SURFACE LOW...ACROSS
MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AT 0Z THURSDAY. IT WILL
QUICKLY SWIPE EASTWARD AND ACROSS KY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE LACKING...WITH VERY LITTLE CAPE AND A STRONG
SURFACE INVERSION...SO NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER THROUGH 12Z. BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z...INSTABILITY IMPROVES
WITH DAYTIME HEATING...HOWEVER THE SURFACE INVERSION WILL LIFT TO
THE MID LEVELS. STORMS WOULD NEED TO OVERCOME THIS INVERSION TO
PRODUCE ANY STRONG TO SEVERE ACTIVITY. AND GIVEN THE VERY FAST
NATURE OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY...DON/T EXPECT TRAINING OR
LINGERING OF HEAVY RAINING STORMS TO BE OF MUCH CONCERN.

MODELS START TO LOSE CONTINUITY ON SURFACE SOLUTIONS AFTER THIS
INITIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AND ONWARD...THOUGH
THEY STILL MAINTAIN AGREEMENT IN THE UPPER LEVELS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...WITH DRIER NW FLOW IN PLACE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THE
ECMWF KEEPS OUT ANY MOISTURE CHANCES WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE
WEAKENING BEFORE MAKING IT INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WHILE THE
GFS SHOWS THE PRECIP WEAKENING BUT STILL MAINTAINS SOME SLIGHT
CHANCES ACROSS OUR CWA. A SIMILAR SCENARIO PLAYS OUT FOR ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THE QUESTION WILL BE IF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THESE BOUNDARIES FROM AFFECTING EASTERN KY.
AS IT STANDS NOW...MODEL BLENDS ACTUALLY COME UP WITH GENERALLY
SUB SLIGHT CHANCES DURING BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS...SO DECIDED TO
CONTINUE TO EXCLUDE MENTION OF ANY PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

AFTER THE INITIAL COLD FRONT TUESDAY MORNING...NW FLOW WILL BRING IN
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE MAXIMUM DAYTIME RADIATION...SO
THE TEMP DROP WILL NOT BE THAT GREAT...ONLY A FEW DEGREES FROM THE
DAY BEFORE. PERHAPS MORE NOTICEABLE THAN THE SLIGHT CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE DECREASE IN HUMIDITY...AS LIGHT WINDS AT
THE SURFACE AND NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PROMOTE LOWER RH VALUES. AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED...EXPECT
TEMPS TO GRADUALLY WARM EACH DAY...STAYING IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...MAXIMUM
RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

CONDITIONS WERE LARGELY MVFR AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH
SOME IFR AND VFR PRESENT AS WELL. AN OVERALL DETERIORATION IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH MAINLY IFR EXPECTED BY DAWN. IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR IS EXPECTED EARLY ON TUESDAY MORNING AFTER SUNRISE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING LOCALIZED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. THEY
SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUNSET.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...HAL





000
FXUS63 KJKL 280800
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
400 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN ATMOSPHERE WITH ONLY VERY WEAK
FEATURES AND LIGHT FLOW ALOFT IN OUR REGION...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH CENTERED TO OUR SW. CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHTLY WARMER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. WILL
EXPECTED SCATTERED CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP AFTER HEATING BOTH
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. IT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIE THIS EVENING WITH
LOSS OF HEATING. WITH LIGHT FLOW AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCURR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WHILE BROAD RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
CONUS...INCLUDING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION...TO START THE
PERIOD...A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE TRAVERSING FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL HAVE MADE IT TO
CENTRAL ONTARIO BY 0Z THURSDAY...AND WILL THEN CHANGE COURSE TOWARDS
THE NE. AS IT CONTINUES ON THIS TRACK...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL
BEGIN FALLING ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE RIDGE GETS PUSHED FARTHER
BACK AND EAST. THE LOW WILL THEN BECOME STALLED OVER HUDSON
BAY...KEEPING THE BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
AND MIDWEST CONUS...WHILE CONTINUING TO PUSH THE RIDGE FARTHER
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE 4 CORNER STATES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT
THIS TROUGHING PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EVEN INTO
NEXT WEEK...WITH HEIGHTS OSCILLATING FROM HIGHER TO LOWER AS THE LOW
ROTATES BACK AND FORTH AROUND THE HUDSON BAY AREA.

AS IT RELATES TO OUR CWA...THIS LOWERING OF HEIGHTS AND INCOMING
TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE TO NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE
TROUGH...HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MAY BE ENOUGH TO
WARD OFF ANY PRECIP CHANCES AS THESE WAVES/BOUNDARIES NEAR THE
REGION.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES ACROSS
ONTARIO...PULLING A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH IT. A
COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD FROM THE SURFACE LOW...ACROSS
MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AT 0Z THURSDAY. IT WILL
QUICKLY SWIPE EASTWARD AND ACROSS KY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE LACKING...WITH VERY LITTLE CAPE AND A STRONG
SURFACE INVERSION...SO NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER THROUGH 12Z. BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z...INSTABILITY IMPROVES
WITH DAYTIME HEATING...HOWEVER THE SURFACE INVERSION WILL LIFT TO
THE MID LEVELS. STORMS WOULD NEED TO OVERCOME THIS INVERSION TO
PRODUCE ANY STRONG TO SEVERE ACTIVITY. AND GIVEN THE VERY FAST
NATURE OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY...DON/T EXPECT TRAINING OR
LINGERING OF HEAVY RAINING STORMS TO BE OF MUCH CONCERN.

MODELS START TO LOSE CONTINUITY ON SURFACE SOLUTIONS AFTER THIS
INITIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AND ONWARD...THOUGH
THEY STILL MAINTAIN AGREEMENT IN THE UPPER LEVELS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...WITH DRIER NW FLOW IN PLACE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THE
ECMWF KEEPS OUT ANY MOISTURE CHANCES WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE
WEAKENING BEFORE MAKING IT INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WHILE THE
GFS SHOWS THE PRECIP WEAKENING BUT STILL MAINTAINS SOME SLIGHT
CHANCES ACROSS OUR CWA. A SIMILAR SCENARIO PLAYS OUT FOR ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THE QUESTION WILL BE IF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THESE BOUNDARIES FROM AFFECTING EASTERN KY.
AS IT STANDS NOW...MODEL BLENDS ACTUALLY COME UP WITH GENERALLY
SUB SLIGHT CHANCES DURING BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS...SO DECIDED TO
CONTINUE TO EXCLUDE MENTION OF ANY PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

AFTER THE INITIAL COLD FRONT TUESDAY MORNING...NW FLOW WILL BRING IN
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE MAXIMUM DAYTIME RADIATION...SO
THE TEMP DROP WILL NOT BE THAT GREAT...ONLY A FEW DEGREES FROM THE
DAY BEFORE. PERHAPS MORE NOTICEABLE THAN THE SLIGHT CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE DECREASE IN HUMIDITY...AS LIGHT WINDS AT
THE SURFACE AND NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PROMOTE LOWER RH VALUES. AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED...EXPECT
TEMPS TO GRADUALLY WARM EACH DAY...STAYING IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...MAXIMUM
RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

CONDITIONS WERE LARGELY MVFR AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH
SOME IFR AND VFR PRESENT AS WELL. AN OVERALL DETERIORATION IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH MAINLY IFR EXPECTED BY DAWN. IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR IS EXPECTED EARLY ON TUESDAY MORNING AFTER SUNRISE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING LOCALIZED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. THEY
SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUNSET.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...HAL




000
FXUS63 KJKL 280721
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
321 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1015 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN QUITE PERSISTENT
ALONG AND NORTH OF I64 TONIGHT. THESE HAVE LIKELY BEEN RELATED TO
SOME DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ALSO FIRING UP ALONG A NEAR A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. RIGHT NOW STILL EXPECTING MUCH OF THIS TO
WEAKEN AND DIE OFF THROUGH THE NIGHT. IN THE MEAN TIME THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING QUITE THE RAINFALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION WITH 3 HOUR RADAR ESTIMATES OF 2 PLUS
INCHES IN SOME AREAS. UPDATED GRIDS TO BETTER HANDLE OVERALL
CONVECTION AND ADJUSTED TEMPS/DEW POINTS/WINDS TO LATEST OBS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

CONTINUING TO SEE CONVECTION THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH AND
NEAR THE TN BORDER...WHILE MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
REGION REMAINS DRY. THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SHOW A OVERALL
WEAKENING TREND BASED ON WSR-88D RADAR AND IR SAT. ALSO MANY OF
THE CONVECTIVE MODELS WOULD SUGGEST A OVERALL WEAKENING TREND WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THEREFORE DO SHOW THAT AS WE GOING INTO
THE LATER EVENING HOURS. THE ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE HOW MUCH FOG
PRODUCTION DO WE SEE...DO THINK VALLEY LOCATIONS AND AREAS THAT
SAW RAIN WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR FOG OVERNIGHT. UPDATED
GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND ALSO UPDATED WITH LATEST
OBS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE A WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS
SOUTHERN OH AND INTO NORTHERN KY...THIS COMBINED WITH A VERY MOIST
AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE HAS RESULTED IN SOME SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY WANE WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. THE CHALLENGING PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
LATER TONIGHT WITH THE LEFTOVER CLOUD COVER FROM THE DAYS
CONVECTION. THIS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE NIGHT ALLOWING
FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING IN
THE LOWER LEVELS ALONG WITH ANOTHER CLUSTER OF CONVECTION TO THE
NORTHWEST MOVING IN...WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER
MOVING INTO THE AREA. THIS MAY HINDER FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES BUT WITH THE SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE...FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT
REGARDLESS...ESPECIALLY WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.

THE SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL ALLOW FOR AMPLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY. THIS COMBINED WITH THE WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING OVER
THE RIDGE AND INTO THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SEEM TO HAVE
A WEAKER CAP IN PLACE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND THIS WILL MAKE FOR
RATHER EASY DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE CELLS. TOWARDS THE END OF THE
DAY...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA BRINGING
AN END TO ANY CONVECTION AND ALLOWING SOME CLEARING FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.
OVERALL...THE VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS CONTINUES TO IMPACT
THE AREA WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WHILE BROAD RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
CONUS...INCLUDING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION...TO START THE
PERIOD...A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE TRAVERSING FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL HAVE MADE IT TO
CENTRAL ONTARIO BY 0Z THURSDAY...AND WILL THEN CHANGE COURSE TOWARDS
THE NE. AS IT CONTINUES ON THIS TRACK...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL
BEGIN FALLING ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE RIDGE GETS PUSHED FARTHER
BACK AND EAST. THE LOW WILL THEN BECOME STALLED OVER HUDSON
BAY...KEEPING THE BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
AND MIDWEST CONUS...WHILE CONTINUING TO PUSH THE RIDGE FARTHER
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE 4 CORNER STATES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT
THIS TROUGHING PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EVEN INTO
NEXT WEEK...WITH HEIGHTS OSCILLATING FROM HIGHER TO LOWER AS THE LOW
ROTATES BACK AND FORTH AROUND THE HUDSON BAY AREA.

AS IT RELATES TO OUR CWA...THIS LOWERING OF HEIGHTS AND INCOMING
TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE TO NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE
TROUGH...HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MAY BE ENOUGH TO
WARD OFF ANY PRECIP CHANCES AS THESE WAVES/BOUNDARIES NEAR THE
REGION.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES ACROSS
ONTARIO...PULLING A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH IT. A
COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD FROM THE SURFACE LOW...ACROSS
MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AT 0Z THURSDAY. IT WILL
QUICKLY SWIPE EASTWARD AND ACROSS KY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE LACKING...WITH VERY LITTLE CAPE AND A STRONG
SURFACE INVERSION...SO NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER THROUGH 12Z. BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z...INSTABILITY IMPROVES
WITH DAYTIME HEATING...HOWEVER THE SURFACE INVERSION WILL LIFT TO
THE MID LEVELS. STORMS WOULD NEED TO OVERCOME THIS INVERSION TO
PRODUCE ANY STRONG TO SEVERE ACTIVITY. AND GIVEN THE VERY FAST
NATURE OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY...DON/T EXPECT TRAINING OR
LINGERING OF HEAVY RAINING STORMS TO BE OF MUCH CONCERN.

MODELS START TO LOSE CONTINUITY ON SURFACE SOLUTIONS AFTER THIS
INITIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AND ONWARD...THOUGH
THEY STILL MAINTAIN AGREEMENT IN THE UPPER LEVELS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...WITH DRIER NW FLOW IN PLACE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THE
ECMWF KEEPS OUT ANY MOISTURE CHANCES WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE
WEAKENING BEFORE MAKING IT INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WHILE THE
GFS SHOWS THE PRECIP WEAKENING BUT STILL MAINTAINS SOME SLIGHT
CHANCES ACROSS OUR CWA. A SIMILAR SCENARIO PLAYS OUT FOR ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THE QUESTION WILL BE IF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THESE BOUNDARIES FROM AFFECTING EASTERN KY.
AS IT STANDS NOW...MODEL BLENDS ACTUALLY COME UP WITH GENERALLY
SUB SLIGHT CHANCES DURING BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS...SO DECIDED TO
CONTINUE TO EXCLUDE MENTION OF ANY PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

AFTER THE INITIAL COLD FRONT TUESDAY MORNING...NW FLOW WILL BRING IN
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE MAXIMUM DAYTIME RADIATION...SO
THE TEMP DROP WILL NOT BE THAT GREAT...ONLY A FEW DEGREES FROM THE
DAY BEFORE. PERHAPS MORE NOTICEABLE THAN THE SLIGHT CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE DECREASE IN HUMIDITY...AS LIGHT WINDS AT
THE SURFACE AND NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PROMOTE LOWER RH VALUES. AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED...EXPECT
TEMPS TO GRADUALLY WARM EACH DAY...STAYING IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...MAXIMUM
RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

CONDITIONS WERE LARGELY MVFR AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH
SOME IFR AND VFR PRESENT AS WELL. AN OVERALL DETERIORATION IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH MAINLY IFR EXPECTED BY DAWN. IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR IS EXPECTED EARLY ON TUESDAY MORNING AFTER SUNRISE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING LOCALIZED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. THEY
SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUNSET.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...HAL





000
FXUS63 KJKL 280721
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
321 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1015 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN QUITE PERSISTENT
ALONG AND NORTH OF I64 TONIGHT. THESE HAVE LIKELY BEEN RELATED TO
SOME DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ALSO FIRING UP ALONG A NEAR A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. RIGHT NOW STILL EXPECTING MUCH OF THIS TO
WEAKEN AND DIE OFF THROUGH THE NIGHT. IN THE MEAN TIME THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING QUITE THE RAINFALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION WITH 3 HOUR RADAR ESTIMATES OF 2 PLUS
INCHES IN SOME AREAS. UPDATED GRIDS TO BETTER HANDLE OVERALL
CONVECTION AND ADJUSTED TEMPS/DEW POINTS/WINDS TO LATEST OBS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

CONTINUING TO SEE CONVECTION THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH AND
NEAR THE TN BORDER...WHILE MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
REGION REMAINS DRY. THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SHOW A OVERALL
WEAKENING TREND BASED ON WSR-88D RADAR AND IR SAT. ALSO MANY OF
THE CONVECTIVE MODELS WOULD SUGGEST A OVERALL WEAKENING TREND WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THEREFORE DO SHOW THAT AS WE GOING INTO
THE LATER EVENING HOURS. THE ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE HOW MUCH FOG
PRODUCTION DO WE SEE...DO THINK VALLEY LOCATIONS AND AREAS THAT
SAW RAIN WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR FOG OVERNIGHT. UPDATED
GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND ALSO UPDATED WITH LATEST
OBS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE A WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS
SOUTHERN OH AND INTO NORTHERN KY...THIS COMBINED WITH A VERY MOIST
AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE HAS RESULTED IN SOME SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY WANE WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. THE CHALLENGING PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
LATER TONIGHT WITH THE LEFTOVER CLOUD COVER FROM THE DAYS
CONVECTION. THIS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE NIGHT ALLOWING
FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING IN
THE LOWER LEVELS ALONG WITH ANOTHER CLUSTER OF CONVECTION TO THE
NORTHWEST MOVING IN...WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER
MOVING INTO THE AREA. THIS MAY HINDER FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES BUT WITH THE SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE...FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT
REGARDLESS...ESPECIALLY WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.

THE SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL ALLOW FOR AMPLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY. THIS COMBINED WITH THE WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING OVER
THE RIDGE AND INTO THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SEEM TO HAVE
A WEAKER CAP IN PLACE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND THIS WILL MAKE FOR
RATHER EASY DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE CELLS. TOWARDS THE END OF THE
DAY...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA BRINGING
AN END TO ANY CONVECTION AND ALLOWING SOME CLEARING FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.
OVERALL...THE VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS CONTINUES TO IMPACT
THE AREA WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WHILE BROAD RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
CONUS...INCLUDING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION...TO START THE
PERIOD...A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE TRAVERSING FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL HAVE MADE IT TO
CENTRAL ONTARIO BY 0Z THURSDAY...AND WILL THEN CHANGE COURSE TOWARDS
THE NE. AS IT CONTINUES ON THIS TRACK...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL
BEGIN FALLING ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE RIDGE GETS PUSHED FARTHER
BACK AND EAST. THE LOW WILL THEN BECOME STALLED OVER HUDSON
BAY...KEEPING THE BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
AND MIDWEST CONUS...WHILE CONTINUING TO PUSH THE RIDGE FARTHER
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE 4 CORNER STATES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT
THIS TROUGHING PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EVEN INTO
NEXT WEEK...WITH HEIGHTS OSCILLATING FROM HIGHER TO LOWER AS THE LOW
ROTATES BACK AND FORTH AROUND THE HUDSON BAY AREA.

AS IT RELATES TO OUR CWA...THIS LOWERING OF HEIGHTS AND INCOMING
TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE TO NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE
TROUGH...HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MAY BE ENOUGH TO
WARD OFF ANY PRECIP CHANCES AS THESE WAVES/BOUNDARIES NEAR THE
REGION.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES ACROSS
ONTARIO...PULLING A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH IT. A
COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD FROM THE SURFACE LOW...ACROSS
MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AT 0Z THURSDAY. IT WILL
QUICKLY SWIPE EASTWARD AND ACROSS KY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE LACKING...WITH VERY LITTLE CAPE AND A STRONG
SURFACE INVERSION...SO NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER THROUGH 12Z. BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z...INSTABILITY IMPROVES
WITH DAYTIME HEATING...HOWEVER THE SURFACE INVERSION WILL LIFT TO
THE MID LEVELS. STORMS WOULD NEED TO OVERCOME THIS INVERSION TO
PRODUCE ANY STRONG TO SEVERE ACTIVITY. AND GIVEN THE VERY FAST
NATURE OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY...DON/T EXPECT TRAINING OR
LINGERING OF HEAVY RAINING STORMS TO BE OF MUCH CONCERN.

MODELS START TO LOSE CONTINUITY ON SURFACE SOLUTIONS AFTER THIS
INITIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AND ONWARD...THOUGH
THEY STILL MAINTAIN AGREEMENT IN THE UPPER LEVELS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...WITH DRIER NW FLOW IN PLACE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THE
ECMWF KEEPS OUT ANY MOISTURE CHANCES WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE
WEAKENING BEFORE MAKING IT INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WHILE THE
GFS SHOWS THE PRECIP WEAKENING BUT STILL MAINTAINS SOME SLIGHT
CHANCES ACROSS OUR CWA. A SIMILAR SCENARIO PLAYS OUT FOR ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THE QUESTION WILL BE IF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THESE BOUNDARIES FROM AFFECTING EASTERN KY.
AS IT STANDS NOW...MODEL BLENDS ACTUALLY COME UP WITH GENERALLY
SUB SLIGHT CHANCES DURING BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS...SO DECIDED TO
CONTINUE TO EXCLUDE MENTION OF ANY PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

AFTER THE INITIAL COLD FRONT TUESDAY MORNING...NW FLOW WILL BRING IN
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE MAXIMUM DAYTIME RADIATION...SO
THE TEMP DROP WILL NOT BE THAT GREAT...ONLY A FEW DEGREES FROM THE
DAY BEFORE. PERHAPS MORE NOTICEABLE THAN THE SLIGHT CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE DECREASE IN HUMIDITY...AS LIGHT WINDS AT
THE SURFACE AND NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PROMOTE LOWER RH VALUES. AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED...EXPECT
TEMPS TO GRADUALLY WARM EACH DAY...STAYING IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...MAXIMUM
RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

CONDITIONS WERE LARGELY MVFR AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH
SOME IFR AND VFR PRESENT AS WELL. AN OVERALL DETERIORATION IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH MAINLY IFR EXPECTED BY DAWN. IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR IS EXPECTED EARLY ON TUESDAY MORNING AFTER SUNRISE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING LOCALIZED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. THEY
SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUNSET.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...HAL





000
FXUS63 KJKL 280721
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
321 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1015 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN QUITE PERSISTENT
ALONG AND NORTH OF I64 TONIGHT. THESE HAVE LIKELY BEEN RELATED TO
SOME DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ALSO FIRING UP ALONG A NEAR A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. RIGHT NOW STILL EXPECTING MUCH OF THIS TO
WEAKEN AND DIE OFF THROUGH THE NIGHT. IN THE MEAN TIME THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING QUITE THE RAINFALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION WITH 3 HOUR RADAR ESTIMATES OF 2 PLUS
INCHES IN SOME AREAS. UPDATED GRIDS TO BETTER HANDLE OVERALL
CONVECTION AND ADJUSTED TEMPS/DEW POINTS/WINDS TO LATEST OBS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

CONTINUING TO SEE CONVECTION THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH AND
NEAR THE TN BORDER...WHILE MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
REGION REMAINS DRY. THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SHOW A OVERALL
WEAKENING TREND BASED ON WSR-88D RADAR AND IR SAT. ALSO MANY OF
THE CONVECTIVE MODELS WOULD SUGGEST A OVERALL WEAKENING TREND WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THEREFORE DO SHOW THAT AS WE GOING INTO
THE LATER EVENING HOURS. THE ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE HOW MUCH FOG
PRODUCTION DO WE SEE...DO THINK VALLEY LOCATIONS AND AREAS THAT
SAW RAIN WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR FOG OVERNIGHT. UPDATED
GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND ALSO UPDATED WITH LATEST
OBS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE A WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS
SOUTHERN OH AND INTO NORTHERN KY...THIS COMBINED WITH A VERY MOIST
AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE HAS RESULTED IN SOME SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY WANE WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. THE CHALLENGING PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
LATER TONIGHT WITH THE LEFTOVER CLOUD COVER FROM THE DAYS
CONVECTION. THIS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE NIGHT ALLOWING
FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING IN
THE LOWER LEVELS ALONG WITH ANOTHER CLUSTER OF CONVECTION TO THE
NORTHWEST MOVING IN...WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER
MOVING INTO THE AREA. THIS MAY HINDER FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES BUT WITH THE SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE...FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT
REGARDLESS...ESPECIALLY WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.

THE SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL ALLOW FOR AMPLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY. THIS COMBINED WITH THE WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING OVER
THE RIDGE AND INTO THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SEEM TO HAVE
A WEAKER CAP IN PLACE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND THIS WILL MAKE FOR
RATHER EASY DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE CELLS. TOWARDS THE END OF THE
DAY...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA BRINGING
AN END TO ANY CONVECTION AND ALLOWING SOME CLEARING FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.
OVERALL...THE VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS CONTINUES TO IMPACT
THE AREA WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WHILE BROAD RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
CONUS...INCLUDING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION...TO START THE
PERIOD...A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE TRAVERSING FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL HAVE MADE IT TO
CENTRAL ONTARIO BY 0Z THURSDAY...AND WILL THEN CHANGE COURSE TOWARDS
THE NE. AS IT CONTINUES ON THIS TRACK...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL
BEGIN FALLING ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE RIDGE GETS PUSHED FARTHER
BACK AND EAST. THE LOW WILL THEN BECOME STALLED OVER HUDSON
BAY...KEEPING THE BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
AND MIDWEST CONUS...WHILE CONTINUING TO PUSH THE RIDGE FARTHER
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE 4 CORNER STATES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT
THIS TROUGHING PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EVEN INTO
NEXT WEEK...WITH HEIGHTS OSCILLATING FROM HIGHER TO LOWER AS THE LOW
ROTATES BACK AND FORTH AROUND THE HUDSON BAY AREA.

AS IT RELATES TO OUR CWA...THIS LOWERING OF HEIGHTS AND INCOMING
TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE TO NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE
TROUGH...HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MAY BE ENOUGH TO
WARD OFF ANY PRECIP CHANCES AS THESE WAVES/BOUNDARIES NEAR THE
REGION.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES ACROSS
ONTARIO...PULLING A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH IT. A
COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD FROM THE SURFACE LOW...ACROSS
MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AT 0Z THURSDAY. IT WILL
QUICKLY SWIPE EASTWARD AND ACROSS KY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE LACKING...WITH VERY LITTLE CAPE AND A STRONG
SURFACE INVERSION...SO NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER THROUGH 12Z. BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z...INSTABILITY IMPROVES
WITH DAYTIME HEATING...HOWEVER THE SURFACE INVERSION WILL LIFT TO
THE MID LEVELS. STORMS WOULD NEED TO OVERCOME THIS INVERSION TO
PRODUCE ANY STRONG TO SEVERE ACTIVITY. AND GIVEN THE VERY FAST
NATURE OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY...DON/T EXPECT TRAINING OR
LINGERING OF HEAVY RAINING STORMS TO BE OF MUCH CONCERN.

MODELS START TO LOSE CONTINUITY ON SURFACE SOLUTIONS AFTER THIS
INITIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AND ONWARD...THOUGH
THEY STILL MAINTAIN AGREEMENT IN THE UPPER LEVELS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...WITH DRIER NW FLOW IN PLACE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THE
ECMWF KEEPS OUT ANY MOISTURE CHANCES WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE
WEAKENING BEFORE MAKING IT INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WHILE THE
GFS SHOWS THE PRECIP WEAKENING BUT STILL MAINTAINS SOME SLIGHT
CHANCES ACROSS OUR CWA. A SIMILAR SCENARIO PLAYS OUT FOR ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THE QUESTION WILL BE IF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THESE BOUNDARIES FROM AFFECTING EASTERN KY.
AS IT STANDS NOW...MODEL BLENDS ACTUALLY COME UP WITH GENERALLY
SUB SLIGHT CHANCES DURING BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS...SO DECIDED TO
CONTINUE TO EXCLUDE MENTION OF ANY PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

AFTER THE INITIAL COLD FRONT TUESDAY MORNING...NW FLOW WILL BRING IN
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE MAXIMUM DAYTIME RADIATION...SO
THE TEMP DROP WILL NOT BE THAT GREAT...ONLY A FEW DEGREES FROM THE
DAY BEFORE. PERHAPS MORE NOTICEABLE THAN THE SLIGHT CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE DECREASE IN HUMIDITY...AS LIGHT WINDS AT
THE SURFACE AND NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PROMOTE LOWER RH VALUES. AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED...EXPECT
TEMPS TO GRADUALLY WARM EACH DAY...STAYING IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...MAXIMUM
RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

CONDITIONS WERE LARGELY MVFR AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH
SOME IFR AND VFR PRESENT AS WELL. AN OVERALL DETERIORATION IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH MAINLY IFR EXPECTED BY DAWN. IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR IS EXPECTED EARLY ON TUESDAY MORNING AFTER SUNRISE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING LOCALIZED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. THEY
SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUNSET.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...HAL




000
FXUS63 KJKL 280707
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
307 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1015 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN QUITE PERSISTENT
ALONG AND NORTH OF I64 TONIGHT. THESE HAVE LIKELY BEEN RELATED TO
SOME DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ALSO FIRING UP ALONG A NEAR A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. RIGHT NOW STILL EXPECTING MUCH OF THIS TO
WEAKEN AND DIE OFF THROUGH THE NIGHT. IN THE MEAN TIME THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING QUITE THE RAINFALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION WITH 3 HOUR RADAR ESTIMATES OF 2 PLUS
INCHES IN SOME AREAS. UPDATED GRIDS TO BETTER HANDLE OVERALL
CONVECTION AND ADJUSTED TEMPS/DEW POINTS/WINDS TO LATEST OBS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

CONTINUING TO SEE CONVECTION THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH AND
NEAR THE TN BORDER...WHILE MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
REGION REMAINS DRY. THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SHOW A OVERALL
WEAKENING TREND BASED ON WSR-88D RADAR AND IR SAT. ALSO MANY OF
THE CONVECTIVE MODELS WOULD SUGGEST A OVERALL WEAKENING TREND WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THEREFORE DO SHOW THAT AS WE GOING INTO
THE LATER EVENING HOURS. THE ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE HOW MUCH FOG
PRODUCTION DO WE SEE...DO THINK VALLEY LOCATIONS AND AREAS THAT
SAW RAIN WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR FOG OVERNIGHT. UPDATED
GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND ALSO UPDATED WITH LATEST
OBS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE A WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS
SOUTHERN OH AND INTO NORTHERN KY...THIS COMBINED WITH A VERY MOIST
AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE HAS RESULTED IN SOME SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY WANE WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. THE CHALLENGING PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
LATER TONIGHT WITH THE LEFTOVER CLOUD COVER FROM THE DAYS
CONVECTION. THIS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE NIGHT ALLOWING
FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING IN
THE LOWER LEVELS ALONG WITH ANOTHER CLUSTER OF CONVECTION TO THE
NORTHWEST MOVING IN...WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER
MOVING INTO THE AREA. THIS MAY HINDER FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES BUT WITH THE SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE...FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT
REGARDLESS...ESPECIALLY WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.

THE SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL ALLOW FOR AMPLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY. THIS COMBINED WITH THE WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING OVER
THE RIDGE AND INTO THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SEEM TO HAVE
A WEAKER CAP IN PLACE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND THIS WILL MAKE FOR
RATHER EASY DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE CELLS. TOWARDS THE END OF THE
DAY...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA BRINGING
AN END TO ANY CONVECTION AND ALLOWING SOME CLEARING FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.
OVERALL...THE VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS CONTINUES TO IMPACT
THE AREA WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED...SO
CONFIDENCE REMAINS ELEVATED WITH THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE
AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS/STORMS AT BAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. WE COULD SEE A FEW POP UP STORMS ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS IN
SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...BUT THESE SHOULD NOT BE A MAJOR CONCERN AS THEY
WILL REMAIN BRIEF. MAIN WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE AROUND THE
COLD FRONT AS IT SINKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...MAINLY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WILL KEEP SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE ALONG THE FRONT
LIMITED. WITH THAT SAID...THIS IS A FAIRLY DECENT FRONT WITH A GOOD
CHANGE IN AIR MASS. THUS...PLAN TO GO HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE ON THE
POPS AS WE ARE MORE LIKELY SEE SOMETHING EVEN IF IT IS MORE
SPORADIC. DOESN`T LOOK LIKE MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT AND EVERYTHING
SHOULD REMAIN PROGRESSIVE TO LIMIT THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.

AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...DRY
WEATHER SHOULD ABOUND FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA...PROVIDING ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY
WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. HUMIDITY WILL BE KNOCKED BACK AS
WELL...SO WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER PLEASANT STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR
THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

CONDITIONS WERE LARGELY MVFR AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH
SOME IFR AND VFR PRESENT AS WELL. AN OVERALL DETERIORATION IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH MAINLY IFR EXPECTED BY DAWN. IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR IS EXPECTED EARLY ON TUESDAY MORNING AFTER SUNRISE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING LOCALIZED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. THEY
SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUNSET.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...HAL





000
FXUS63 KJKL 280707
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
307 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1015 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN QUITE PERSISTENT
ALONG AND NORTH OF I64 TONIGHT. THESE HAVE LIKELY BEEN RELATED TO
SOME DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ALSO FIRING UP ALONG A NEAR A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. RIGHT NOW STILL EXPECTING MUCH OF THIS TO
WEAKEN AND DIE OFF THROUGH THE NIGHT. IN THE MEAN TIME THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING QUITE THE RAINFALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION WITH 3 HOUR RADAR ESTIMATES OF 2 PLUS
INCHES IN SOME AREAS. UPDATED GRIDS TO BETTER HANDLE OVERALL
CONVECTION AND ADJUSTED TEMPS/DEW POINTS/WINDS TO LATEST OBS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

CONTINUING TO SEE CONVECTION THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH AND
NEAR THE TN BORDER...WHILE MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
REGION REMAINS DRY. THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SHOW A OVERALL
WEAKENING TREND BASED ON WSR-88D RADAR AND IR SAT. ALSO MANY OF
THE CONVECTIVE MODELS WOULD SUGGEST A OVERALL WEAKENING TREND WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THEREFORE DO SHOW THAT AS WE GOING INTO
THE LATER EVENING HOURS. THE ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE HOW MUCH FOG
PRODUCTION DO WE SEE...DO THINK VALLEY LOCATIONS AND AREAS THAT
SAW RAIN WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR FOG OVERNIGHT. UPDATED
GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND ALSO UPDATED WITH LATEST
OBS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE A WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS
SOUTHERN OH AND INTO NORTHERN KY...THIS COMBINED WITH A VERY MOIST
AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE HAS RESULTED IN SOME SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY WANE WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. THE CHALLENGING PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
LATER TONIGHT WITH THE LEFTOVER CLOUD COVER FROM THE DAYS
CONVECTION. THIS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE NIGHT ALLOWING
FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING IN
THE LOWER LEVELS ALONG WITH ANOTHER CLUSTER OF CONVECTION TO THE
NORTHWEST MOVING IN...WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER
MOVING INTO THE AREA. THIS MAY HINDER FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES BUT WITH THE SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE...FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT
REGARDLESS...ESPECIALLY WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.

THE SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL ALLOW FOR AMPLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY. THIS COMBINED WITH THE WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING OVER
THE RIDGE AND INTO THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SEEM TO HAVE
A WEAKER CAP IN PLACE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND THIS WILL MAKE FOR
RATHER EASY DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE CELLS. TOWARDS THE END OF THE
DAY...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA BRINGING
AN END TO ANY CONVECTION AND ALLOWING SOME CLEARING FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.
OVERALL...THE VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS CONTINUES TO IMPACT
THE AREA WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED...SO
CONFIDENCE REMAINS ELEVATED WITH THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE
AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS/STORMS AT BAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. WE COULD SEE A FEW POP UP STORMS ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS IN
SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...BUT THESE SHOULD NOT BE A MAJOR CONCERN AS THEY
WILL REMAIN BRIEF. MAIN WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE AROUND THE
COLD FRONT AS IT SINKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...MAINLY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WILL KEEP SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE ALONG THE FRONT
LIMITED. WITH THAT SAID...THIS IS A FAIRLY DECENT FRONT WITH A GOOD
CHANGE IN AIR MASS. THUS...PLAN TO GO HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE ON THE
POPS AS WE ARE MORE LIKELY SEE SOMETHING EVEN IF IT IS MORE
SPORADIC. DOESN`T LOOK LIKE MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT AND EVERYTHING
SHOULD REMAIN PROGRESSIVE TO LIMIT THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.

AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...DRY
WEATHER SHOULD ABOUND FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA...PROVIDING ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY
WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. HUMIDITY WILL BE KNOCKED BACK AS
WELL...SO WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER PLEASANT STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR
THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

CONDITIONS WERE LARGELY MVFR AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH
SOME IFR AND VFR PRESENT AS WELL. AN OVERALL DETERIORATION IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH MAINLY IFR EXPECTED BY DAWN. IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR IS EXPECTED EARLY ON TUESDAY MORNING AFTER SUNRISE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING LOCALIZED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. THEY
SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUNSET.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...HAL




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