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000
FXUS63 KJKL 011201
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
801 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

THE MODELS START OUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSONS
BAY. THE KEY FEATURE IS A SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH. THIS SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS IT DIPS
SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL US. BY TONIGHT...THE SHORT WAVE WILL EXTEND
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO LOUISIANA. WITH
THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN...THE COLD FRONT IS WELL THE SOUTH OF THE AREA
ALONG THE GULF COAST AND THE BLOCKING RIDGE OUT WEST IS BLOCKING ANY
FRONTS FROM MOVING INTO THE AREA. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY ON SATURDAY EVENING. THE MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE. THE MAIN
DRIVER OF THE WEATHER WILL BE THE GENERAL INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW AND THEN THE PASSING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. THERE
HAS BEEN SOME MID LEVEL CAPPING THAT HAS HELD DOWN ANY CLOUDS FROM
GROWING BIG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS. AS THE TROUGH NEARS...THE
MID LEVEL CAPPING WILL BEGIN TO ERODE AND THE NET RESULT IS THAT SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS WILL BE ABLE TO FORM.
THERE ARE ENOUGH DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THIS
SYSTEM...THAT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN NORMAL WITH HOW WIDESPREAD
THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE. THERE COULD BE A SCENARIO WHERE THE ENERGY
WILL PASS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THERE WILL BE
MINIMAL CONVECTION OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION IS A BIT LOWER THAN WHAT THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAD.

FOR TEMPERATURES USED A BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS AND THEN MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS FOR TERRAIN EFFECTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

THE PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL DEAMPLIFY A BIT
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD BUT REMAIN PRETTY MUCH IN PLACE IN THE
MEANS. A PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN
OUR FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD BE DRY AS A RESULT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ALONG THE VIRGINIA
BORDER WHERE PROXIMITY TO DEEPER MOISTURE JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST MAY
ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS TO FIRE WITH DAYTIME HEATING MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD SLOWLY THROUGH TIME INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY. MOST MODELS KEEP THIS FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH
THROUGH MIDWEEK...BUT THE 01/00Z ECMWF SHIFTED COURSE AND IS AN
OUTLIER DROPPING IT ALL THE WAY THROUGH OUR AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH
A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE SLOWLY THROUGH TIME BUT ONLY UP TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR
EARLY AUGUST BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 800 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEAR DAWN TOMORROW AT THE TAF
STATIONS...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SOME VLIFR IN SOME OF THE
VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY NEAR RIVERS AND STREAMS. THE FOG SHOULD BE
BURNING OFF BY 13Z. THE MIGHT BE SOME TEMPO IFR AS THE FOG LIFTS OUT
OF THE VALLEYS...SOME OF THE STRATUS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AIRFIELD. LOOKING
FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE MID MORNING THROUGH AROUND 6Z. THE TIMING IS
TOO UNCERTAIN TO PUT IN ANY TEMPO GROUPS AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER DO
EXPECT SOME MVFR CONDITIONS UNDER THE STORMS IF THEY MOVE ACROSS A TAF
STATION. FOG IS MORE LIKELY TOMORROW DUE TO THE RAIN WHICH IS
EXPECTED TODAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...JJ








000
FXUS63 KJKL 010726
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
326 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

THE MODELS START OUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSONS
BAY. THE KEY FEATURE IS A SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH. THIS SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS IT DIPS
SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL US. BY TONIGHT...THE SHORT WAVE WILL EXTEND
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO LOUISIANA. WITH
THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN...THE COLD FRONT IS WELL THE SOUTH OF THE AREA
ALONG THE GULF COAST AND THE BLOCKING RIDGE OUT WEST IS BLOCKING ANY
FRONTS FROM MOVING INTO THE AREA. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY ON SATURDAY EVENING. THE MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE. THE MAIN
DRIVER OF THE WEATHER WILL BE THE GENERAL INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW AND THEN THE PASSING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. THERE
HAS BEEN SOME MID LEVEL CAPPING THAT HAS HELD DOWN ANY CLOUDS FROM
GROWING BIG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS. AS THE TROUGH NEARS...THE
MID LEVEL CAPPING WILL BEGIN TO ERODE AND THE NET RESULT IS THAT SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS WILL BE ABLE TO FORM.
THERE ARE ENOUGH DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THIS
SYSTEM...THAT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN NORMAL WITH HOW WIDESPREAD
THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE. THERE COULD BE A SCENARIO WHERE THE ENERGY
WILL PASS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THERE WILL BE
MINIMAL CONVECTION OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION IS A BIT LOWER THAN WHAT THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAD.

FOR TEMPERATURES USED A BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS AND THEN MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS FOR TERRAIN EFFECTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

THE PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL DEAMPLIFY A BIT
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD BUT REMAIN PRETTY MUCH IN PLACE IN THE
MEANS. A PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN
OUR FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD BE DRY AS A RESULT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ALONG THE VIRGINIA
BORDER WHERE PROXIMITY TO DEEPER MOISTURE JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST MAY
ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS TO FIRE WITH DAYTIME HEATING MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD SLOWLY THROUGH TIME INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY. MOST MODELS KEEP THIS FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH
THROUGH MIDWEEK...BUT THE 01/00Z ECMWF SHIFTED COURSE AND IS AN
OUTLIER DROPPING IT ALL THE WAY THROUGH OUR AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH
A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE SLOWLY THROUGH TIME BUT ONLY UP TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR
EARLY AUGUST BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 156 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

IN GENERAL EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AT
THE TAF STATIONS...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SOME VLIFR IN SOME OF THE
VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY NEAR RIVER AND STREAMS. THE ONLY TAF STATION
THAT IS IN DANGER OF IFR OR LOWER IS SME. THEY IS A ZERO SPREAD
BETWEEN TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT ALREADY...SO PRETTY MUCH WENT WITH A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST. AT THE OTHER TAF STATIONS...THE ONLY CONCERN IS
SOME STRATUS MOVING ACROSS THE TAF STATIONS AS THE FOG LIFTS OUT OF
THE VALLEY. LOOKING FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE MID MORNING THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE TIMING IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO PUT IN ANY
TEMPO GROUPS AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER DO EXPECT SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
UNDER THE STORMS IF THE MOVE ACROSS A TAF STATION.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...JJ







000
FXUS63 KJKL 010726
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
326 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

THE MODELS START OUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSONS
BAY. THE KEY FEATURE IS A SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH. THIS SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS IT DIPS
SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL US. BY TONIGHT...THE SHORT WAVE WILL EXTEND
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO LOUISIANA. WITH
THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN...THE COLD FRONT IS WELL THE SOUTH OF THE AREA
ALONG THE GULF COAST AND THE BLOCKING RIDGE OUT WEST IS BLOCKING ANY
FRONTS FROM MOVING INTO THE AREA. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY ON SATURDAY EVENING. THE MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE. THE MAIN
DRIVER OF THE WEATHER WILL BE THE GENERAL INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW AND THEN THE PASSING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. THERE
HAS BEEN SOME MID LEVEL CAPPING THAT HAS HELD DOWN ANY CLOUDS FROM
GROWING BIG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS. AS THE TROUGH NEARS...THE
MID LEVEL CAPPING WILL BEGIN TO ERODE AND THE NET RESULT IS THAT SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS WILL BE ABLE TO FORM.
THERE ARE ENOUGH DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THIS
SYSTEM...THAT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN NORMAL WITH HOW WIDESPREAD
THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE. THERE COULD BE A SCENARIO WHERE THE ENERGY
WILL PASS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THERE WILL BE
MINIMAL CONVECTION OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION IS A BIT LOWER THAN WHAT THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAD.

FOR TEMPERATURES USED A BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS AND THEN MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS FOR TERRAIN EFFECTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

THE PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL DEAMPLIFY A BIT
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD BUT REMAIN PRETTY MUCH IN PLACE IN THE
MEANS. A PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN
OUR FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD BE DRY AS A RESULT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ALONG THE VIRGINIA
BORDER WHERE PROXIMITY TO DEEPER MOISTURE JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST MAY
ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS TO FIRE WITH DAYTIME HEATING MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD SLOWLY THROUGH TIME INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY. MOST MODELS KEEP THIS FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH
THROUGH MIDWEEK...BUT THE 01/00Z ECMWF SHIFTED COURSE AND IS AN
OUTLIER DROPPING IT ALL THE WAY THROUGH OUR AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH
A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE SLOWLY THROUGH TIME BUT ONLY UP TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR
EARLY AUGUST BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 156 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

IN GENERAL EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AT
THE TAF STATIONS...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SOME VLIFR IN SOME OF THE
VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY NEAR RIVER AND STREAMS. THE ONLY TAF STATION
THAT IS IN DANGER OF IFR OR LOWER IS SME. THEY IS A ZERO SPREAD
BETWEEN TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT ALREADY...SO PRETTY MUCH WENT WITH A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST. AT THE OTHER TAF STATIONS...THE ONLY CONCERN IS
SOME STRATUS MOVING ACROSS THE TAF STATIONS AS THE FOG LIFTS OUT OF
THE VALLEY. LOOKING FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE MID MORNING THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE TIMING IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO PUT IN ANY
TEMPO GROUPS AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER DO EXPECT SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
UNDER THE STORMS IF THE MOVE ACROSS A TAF STATION.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...JJ








000
FXUS63 KJKL 010556
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
156 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 156 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION MOVING
IN FROM THE SOUTH. IT MAY NEED SOME FURTHER SLOWING DOWN BASED ON THE
CURRENT RADAR. ALSO MADE SOME UPDATES TO THE FIRST THREE PERIODS
BASED ON THE NEWEST MODEL DATA AVAILABLE. THE UNCERTAINTY HAS REALLY
INCREASED IN THE SHORT TERM DUE TO THE RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES AND
THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. WILL WAIT AND SEE THE NEW ECMWF BEFORE
FINALIZING THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1055 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

SEEING A LITTLE CONVECTION IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST...BEING THE RESULT OF
SOME SFC/BOUNDARY LAYER OF CONVERGENCE. APPEARS TO BE SOME UPSLOPE
COMPONENT ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF BLACK MOUNTAIN AS WELL WHICH HAS BEEN
STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORM CELLS RIGHT ALONG
OR JUST SOUTH OF THE KY/VA STATE LINE. THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN OUTSIDE OF OUR CWA...AND THE OCCASIONAL CELL THAT
MANAGES TO MOVE INTO KY WEAKENS QUICKLY. BEING OF SUCH AN ISOLD
NATURE...DECIDED TO LEAVE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE GRIDS AND
ZONES AND TO ADDRESS THE POTENTIAL WITH A GRAPHICAL NOWCAST PRODUCT.

ALSO MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS AS THIN CI CANOPY
HAS DONE LITTLE TO PREVENT A RAPID DROP OFF OF TEMPS THROUGH THE
EVENING...WHICH HAS BEEN MORE DRAMATIC IN THE NORTH AND EAST.
HOWEVER...MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND ARE BEING
PICKED UP NOW AT A FEW OF OUR SOUTHERN STATIONS. INCREASE IN CLOUDS
SHOULD HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM BOTTOMING OUT TOO MUCH AND MAY
EVEN TEND TO CAUSE A BIT OF REBOUNDING WHERE CEILINGS MATERIALIZE.
OTHERWISE UPDATED THE ZONE PACKAGE TO FRESHEN UP WORDING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 836 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

FORECAST IS IN VERY GOOD SHAPE THIS EVENING. MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS
TO THE GRIDS FOR LATEST HOURLY OBS. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY CHANGES TO
THE ZONES UNTIL NEXT UPDATE...WHEN AT A MINIMUM WORDING WILL BE
FRESHENED UP TO REMOVE EVENING REFERENCES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH KENTUCKY
TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. TO THE SOUTH...A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE ARE TAKING SHAPE...ONE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
ANOTHER NEAR BAYOU COUNTRY IN LOUISIANA. ON RADAR...A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...BUT SO FAR EAST
KENTUCKY HAS BEEN CLEAR. ON SATELLITE...THE EARLIER LOW CLOUDS BROKE
UP IN THE SOUTH AND A DECENT CU FIELD HAS FORMED OVER THE ENTIRE CWA.
THESE CLOUDS HAVE NOT HAMPERED TEMPERATURES MUCH...THOUGH...AS THEY
HAVE MADE IT TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S...SO FAR. WITH THE RETURN
OF WARMER AFTERNOON WEATHER...THE DEW POINTS HAVE ALSO CREPT UP SO
THAT THEY ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...AND ALL THE WHILE THE WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS
DOMINATED THE WEATHER OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTH
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM ALLOWING FOR MORE ENERGY TO MOVE ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE DAY FRIDAY. MORE SIGNIFICANTLY...THOUGH...A
MID LEVEL WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT...STARTING TO CARVE OUT ANOTHER
NODE OF THE EASTERN TROUGH THROUGH THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY BY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE A BIT QUICKER AND FURTHER
EAST WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT THAN THE NAM AND GFS. FOR NOW...WILL
FOLLOW A GENERAL MODEL BLEND WITH SOME LEANING ON THE SPECIFICS FROM
THE HRRR AND NAM12.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A MILDER NIGHT THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY
DUE TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER DEW POINTS. THIS WILL
ALSO LIKELY LIMIT THE FOG DEVELOPMENT TO JUST THE DEEPEST VALLEYS. IN
ADDITION TO THE CLOUDS...A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER
TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL
RAINS EXPECTED LATER FRIDAY...PRIMARILY IN THE FAR EAST. THUNDER WILL
BE A POSSIBILITY LATER FRIDAY AND INTO THE NIGHT AS A COUPLE OF SFC
WAVES PASS THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE GONE WITH JUST ISOLATED THUNDER
CHANCES...THOUGH...AS THE INSTABILITY WILL BE LESS THEN OPTIMAL FOR
WIDESPREAD STORMS INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE CLOUDS TONIGHT AND AGAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO LIMIT THE RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCES SO HAVE MINIMIZED THESE. LIKEWISE...TEMPS WILL BE
TEMPERED BY THE CLOUDS AND PCPN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

STARTED WITH THE BC/CONSSHORT FOR THE T...TD...AND WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THEN PLUGGED IN THE CONSALL SUITE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. MADE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS
TO LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SOME MINOR RIDGE
TO VALLEY SPLITS. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSER TO THE MAV NUMBERS
FROM LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING RATHER THAN THE HIGH MET
ONES TONIGHT AND LOW VALUES FOR FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

GENERALLY SPEAKING OUR WEATHER WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MEAN
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXCEPTION WILL BE A SHORT
WINDOW OF TIME...DYS 6/7...WED/THUR OF NEXT WEEK WHERE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE ANTICYCLONIC TO ZONAL IN NATURE. THIS PERIOD OF SHORT WAVE
RIDGING WILL PROVIDE OUR WARMEST WEATHER OF THE EXTENDED...ALLOWING
TEMPS TO RISE TO MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME LEVELS AND HIGHER DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST. MODELS ARE SHOWING A DECENT ENOUGH
CONSENSUS IN SOLUTIONS WHERE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
GRADUALLY LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE DY5...TUE. ADDITIONAL ENERGY
DROPS OUT OF CANADA BY LATE WEEK...JUST BEYOND THE EXTENDED FORECAST
WINDOW...EFFECTIVELY CARVING OUT A NEW EASTERN CONUS TROUGH.
HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND A
MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO AMPLITUDE/STRUCTURE OF THE
LATTER TROUGH. ECMWF ACTUALLY DEVELOPS A STACKED UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY REGION WHILE THE GFS ADVERTISES A
LOWER AMPLITUDE TROUGH WITH ITS PARENT LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES.

FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF DEEP EASTERN
CONUS TROUGH WILL KEEP A THREAT OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH ROUGHLY THE FIRST
30 HOURS OF THE EXTENDED. THEN WE WILL SEE WARMER AND DRYER WEATHER
THROUGH THE MID TERM. POTENTIAL FOR RAIN RETURNS AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH APPROACH OF ANOTHER SYSTEM FROM THE WEST BY
DY7...THU. WE CAN EXPECT A MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...PEAKING OUT CLOSE TO 90 FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS BY NEXT
WED...AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 156 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

IN GENERAL EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AT
THE TAF STATIONS...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SOME VLIFR IN SOME OF THE
VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY NEAR RIVER AND STREAMS. THE ONLY TAF STATION
THAT IS IN DANGER OF IFR OR LOWER IS SME. THEY IS A ZERO SPREAD
BETWEEN TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT ALREADY...SO PRETTY MUCH WENT WITH A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST. AT THE OTHER TAF STATIONS...THE ONLY CONCERN IS
SOME STRATUS MOVING ACROSS THE TAF STATIONS AS THE FOG LIFTS OUT OF
THE VALLEY. LOOKING FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE MID MORNING THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE TIMING IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO PUT IN ANY
TEMPO GROUPS AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER DO EXPECT SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
UNDER THE STORMS IF THE MOVE ACROSS A TAF STATION.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJ
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...JJ








000
FXUS63 KJKL 010556
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
156 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 156 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION MOVING
IN FROM THE SOUTH. IT MAY NEED SOME FURTHER SLOWING DOWN BASED ON THE
CURRENT RADAR. ALSO MADE SOME UPDATES TO THE FIRST THREE PERIODS
BASED ON THE NEWEST MODEL DATA AVAILABLE. THE UNCERTAINTY HAS REALLY
INCREASED IN THE SHORT TERM DUE TO THE RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES AND
THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. WILL WAIT AND SEE THE NEW ECMWF BEFORE
FINALIZING THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1055 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

SEEING A LITTLE CONVECTION IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST...BEING THE RESULT OF
SOME SFC/BOUNDARY LAYER OF CONVERGENCE. APPEARS TO BE SOME UPSLOPE
COMPONENT ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF BLACK MOUNTAIN AS WELL WHICH HAS BEEN
STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORM CELLS RIGHT ALONG
OR JUST SOUTH OF THE KY/VA STATE LINE. THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN OUTSIDE OF OUR CWA...AND THE OCCASIONAL CELL THAT
MANAGES TO MOVE INTO KY WEAKENS QUICKLY. BEING OF SUCH AN ISOLD
NATURE...DECIDED TO LEAVE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE GRIDS AND
ZONES AND TO ADDRESS THE POTENTIAL WITH A GRAPHICAL NOWCAST PRODUCT.

ALSO MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS AS THIN CI CANOPY
HAS DONE LITTLE TO PREVENT A RAPID DROP OFF OF TEMPS THROUGH THE
EVENING...WHICH HAS BEEN MORE DRAMATIC IN THE NORTH AND EAST.
HOWEVER...MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND ARE BEING
PICKED UP NOW AT A FEW OF OUR SOUTHERN STATIONS. INCREASE IN CLOUDS
SHOULD HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM BOTTOMING OUT TOO MUCH AND MAY
EVEN TEND TO CAUSE A BIT OF REBOUNDING WHERE CEILINGS MATERIALIZE.
OTHERWISE UPDATED THE ZONE PACKAGE TO FRESHEN UP WORDING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 836 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

FORECAST IS IN VERY GOOD SHAPE THIS EVENING. MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS
TO THE GRIDS FOR LATEST HOURLY OBS. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY CHANGES TO
THE ZONES UNTIL NEXT UPDATE...WHEN AT A MINIMUM WORDING WILL BE
FRESHENED UP TO REMOVE EVENING REFERENCES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH KENTUCKY
TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. TO THE SOUTH...A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE ARE TAKING SHAPE...ONE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
ANOTHER NEAR BAYOU COUNTRY IN LOUISIANA. ON RADAR...A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...BUT SO FAR EAST
KENTUCKY HAS BEEN CLEAR. ON SATELLITE...THE EARLIER LOW CLOUDS BROKE
UP IN THE SOUTH AND A DECENT CU FIELD HAS FORMED OVER THE ENTIRE CWA.
THESE CLOUDS HAVE NOT HAMPERED TEMPERATURES MUCH...THOUGH...AS THEY
HAVE MADE IT TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S...SO FAR. WITH THE RETURN
OF WARMER AFTERNOON WEATHER...THE DEW POINTS HAVE ALSO CREPT UP SO
THAT THEY ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...AND ALL THE WHILE THE WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS
DOMINATED THE WEATHER OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTH
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM ALLOWING FOR MORE ENERGY TO MOVE ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE DAY FRIDAY. MORE SIGNIFICANTLY...THOUGH...A
MID LEVEL WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT...STARTING TO CARVE OUT ANOTHER
NODE OF THE EASTERN TROUGH THROUGH THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY BY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE A BIT QUICKER AND FURTHER
EAST WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT THAN THE NAM AND GFS. FOR NOW...WILL
FOLLOW A GENERAL MODEL BLEND WITH SOME LEANING ON THE SPECIFICS FROM
THE HRRR AND NAM12.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A MILDER NIGHT THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY
DUE TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER DEW POINTS. THIS WILL
ALSO LIKELY LIMIT THE FOG DEVELOPMENT TO JUST THE DEEPEST VALLEYS. IN
ADDITION TO THE CLOUDS...A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER
TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL
RAINS EXPECTED LATER FRIDAY...PRIMARILY IN THE FAR EAST. THUNDER WILL
BE A POSSIBILITY LATER FRIDAY AND INTO THE NIGHT AS A COUPLE OF SFC
WAVES PASS THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE GONE WITH JUST ISOLATED THUNDER
CHANCES...THOUGH...AS THE INSTABILITY WILL BE LESS THEN OPTIMAL FOR
WIDESPREAD STORMS INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE CLOUDS TONIGHT AND AGAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO LIMIT THE RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCES SO HAVE MINIMIZED THESE. LIKEWISE...TEMPS WILL BE
TEMPERED BY THE CLOUDS AND PCPN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

STARTED WITH THE BC/CONSSHORT FOR THE T...TD...AND WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THEN PLUGGED IN THE CONSALL SUITE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. MADE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS
TO LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SOME MINOR RIDGE
TO VALLEY SPLITS. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSER TO THE MAV NUMBERS
FROM LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING RATHER THAN THE HIGH MET
ONES TONIGHT AND LOW VALUES FOR FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

GENERALLY SPEAKING OUR WEATHER WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MEAN
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXCEPTION WILL BE A SHORT
WINDOW OF TIME...DYS 6/7...WED/THUR OF NEXT WEEK WHERE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE ANTICYCLONIC TO ZONAL IN NATURE. THIS PERIOD OF SHORT WAVE
RIDGING WILL PROVIDE OUR WARMEST WEATHER OF THE EXTENDED...ALLOWING
TEMPS TO RISE TO MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME LEVELS AND HIGHER DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST. MODELS ARE SHOWING A DECENT ENOUGH
CONSENSUS IN SOLUTIONS WHERE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
GRADUALLY LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE DY5...TUE. ADDITIONAL ENERGY
DROPS OUT OF CANADA BY LATE WEEK...JUST BEYOND THE EXTENDED FORECAST
WINDOW...EFFECTIVELY CARVING OUT A NEW EASTERN CONUS TROUGH.
HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND A
MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO AMPLITUDE/STRUCTURE OF THE
LATTER TROUGH. ECMWF ACTUALLY DEVELOPS A STACKED UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY REGION WHILE THE GFS ADVERTISES A
LOWER AMPLITUDE TROUGH WITH ITS PARENT LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES.

FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF DEEP EASTERN
CONUS TROUGH WILL KEEP A THREAT OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH ROUGHLY THE FIRST
30 HOURS OF THE EXTENDED. THEN WE WILL SEE WARMER AND DRYER WEATHER
THROUGH THE MID TERM. POTENTIAL FOR RAIN RETURNS AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH APPROACH OF ANOTHER SYSTEM FROM THE WEST BY
DY7...THU. WE CAN EXPECT A MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...PEAKING OUT CLOSE TO 90 FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS BY NEXT
WED...AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 156 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

IN GENERAL EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AT
THE TAF STATIONS...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SOME VLIFR IN SOME OF THE
VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY NEAR RIVER AND STREAMS. THE ONLY TAF STATION
THAT IS IN DANGER OF IFR OR LOWER IS SME. THEY IS A ZERO SPREAD
BETWEEN TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT ALREADY...SO PRETTY MUCH WENT WITH A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST. AT THE OTHER TAF STATIONS...THE ONLY CONCERN IS
SOME STRATUS MOVING ACROSS THE TAF STATIONS AS THE FOG LIFTS OUT OF
THE VALLEY. LOOKING FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE MID MORNING THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE TIMING IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO PUT IN ANY
TEMPO GROUPS AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER DO EXPECT SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
UNDER THE STORMS IF THE MOVE ACROSS A TAF STATION.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJ
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...JJ







000
FXUS63 KJKL 010255
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1055 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1055 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

SEEING A LITTLE CONVECTION IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST...BEING THE RESULT OF
SOME SFC/BOUNDARY LAYER OF CONVERGENCE. APPEARS TO BE SOME UPSLOPE
COMPONENT ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF BLACK MOUNTAIN AS WELL WHICH HAS BEEN
STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORM CELLS RIGHT ALONG
OR JUST SOUTH OF THE KY/VA STATE LINE. THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN OUTSIDE OF OUR CWA...AND THE OCCASIONAL CELL THAT
MANAGES TO MOVE INTO KY WEAKENS QUICKLY. BEING OF SUCH AN ISOLD
NATURE...DECIDED TO LEAVE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE GRIDS AND
ZONES AND TO ADDRESS THE POTENTIAL WITH A GRAPHICAL NOWCAST PRODUCT.

ALSO MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS AS THIN CI CANOPY
HAS DONE LITTLE TO PREVENT A RAPID DROP OFF OF TEMPS THROUGH THE
EVENING...WHICH HAS BEEN MORE DRAMATIC IN THE NORTH AND EAST.
HOWEVER...MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND ARE BEING
PICKED UP NOW AT A FEW OF OUR SOUTHERN STATIONS. INCREASE IN CLOUDS
SHOULD HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM BOTTOMING OUT TOO MUCH AND MAY
EVEN TEND TO CAUSE A BIT OF REBOUNDING WHERE CEILINGS MATERIALIZE.
OTHERWISE UPDATED THE ZONE PACKAGE TO FRESHEN UP WORDING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 836 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

FORECAST IS IN VERY GOOD SHAPE THIS EVENING. MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS
TO THE GRIDS FOR LATEST HOURLY OBS. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY CHANGES TO
THE ZONES UNTIL NEXT UPDATE...WHEN AT A MINIMUM WORDING WILL BE
FRESHENED UP TO REMOVE EVENING REFERENCES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH KENTUCKY
TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. TO THE SOUTH...A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE ARE TAKING SHAPE...ONE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
ANOTHER NEAR BAYOU COUNTRY IN LOUISIANA. ON RADAR...A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...BUT SO FAR EAST
KENTUCKY HAS BEEN CLEAR. ON SATELLITE...THE EARLIER LOW CLOUDS BROKE
UP IN THE SOUTH AND A DECENT CU FIELD HAS FORMED OVER THE ENTIRE CWA.
THESE CLOUDS HAVE NOT HAMPERED TEMPERATURES MUCH...THOUGH...AS THEY
HAVE MADE IT TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S...SO FAR. WITH THE RETURN
OF WARMER AFTERNOON WEATHER...THE DEW POINTS HAVE ALSO CREPT UP SO
THAT THEY ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...AND ALL THE WHILE THE WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS
DOMINATED THE WEATHER OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTH
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM ALLOWING FOR MORE ENERGY TO MOVE ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE DAY FRIDAY. MORE SIGNIFICANTLY...THOUGH...A
MID LEVEL WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT...STARTING TO CARVE OUT ANOTHER
NODE OF THE EASTERN TROUGH THROUGH THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY BY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE A BIT QUICKER AND FURTHER
EAST WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT THAN THE NAM AND GFS. FOR NOW...WILL
FOLLOW A GENERAL MODEL BLEND WITH SOME LEANING ON THE SPECIFICS FROM
THE HRRR AND NAM12.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A MILDER NIGHT THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY
DUE TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER DEW POINTS. THIS WILL
ALSO LIKELY LIMIT THE FOG DEVELOPMENT TO JUST THE DEEPEST VALLEYS. IN
ADDITION TO THE CLOUDS...A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER
TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL
RAINS EXPECTED LATER FRIDAY...PRIMARILY IN THE FAR EAST. THUNDER WILL
BE A POSSIBILITY LATER FRIDAY AND INTO THE NIGHT AS A COUPLE OF SFC
WAVES PASS THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE GONE WITH JUST ISOLATED THUNDER
CHANCES...THOUGH...AS THE INSTABILITY WILL BE LESS THEN OPTIMAL FOR
WIDESPREAD STORMS INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE CLOUDS TONIGHT AND AGAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO LIMIT THE RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCES SO HAVE MINIMIZED THESE. LIKEWISE...TEMPS WILL BE
TEMPERED BY THE CLOUDS AND PCPN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

STARTED WITH THE BC/CONSSHORT FOR THE T...TD...AND WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THEN PLUGGED IN THE CONSALL SUITE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. MADE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS
TO LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SOME MINOR RIDGE
TO VALLEY SPLITS. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSER TO THE MAV NUMBERS
FROM LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING RATHER THAN THE HIGH MET
ONES TONIGHT AND LOW VALUES FOR FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

GENERALLY SPEAKING OUR WEATHER WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MEAN
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXCEPTION WILL BE A SHORT
WINDOW OF TIME...DYS 6/7...WED/THUR OF NEXT WEEK WHERE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE ANTICYCLONIC TO ZONAL IN NATURE. THIS PERIOD OF SHORT WAVE
RIDGING WILL PROVIDE OUR WARMEST WEATHER OF THE EXTENDED...ALLOWING
TEMPS TO RISE TO MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME LEVELS AND HIGHER DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST. MODELS ARE SHOWING A DECENT ENOUGH
CONSENSUS IN SOLUTIONS WHERE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
GRADUALLY LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE DY5...TUE. ADDITIONAL ENERGY
DROPS OUT OF CANADA BY LATE WEEK...JUST BEYOND THE EXTENDED FORECAST
WINDOW...EFFECTIVELY CARVING OUT A NEW EASTERN CONUS TROUGH.
HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND A
MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO AMPLITUDE/STRUCTURE OF THE
LATTER TROUGH. ECMWF ACTUALLY DEVELOPS A STACKED UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY REGION WHILE THE GFS ADVERTISES A
LOWER AMPLITUDE TROUGH WITH ITS PARENT LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES.

FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF DEEP EASTERN
CONUS TROUGH WILL KEEP A THREAT OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH ROUGHLY THE FIRST
30 HOURS OF THE EXTENDED. THEN WE WILL SEE WARMER AND DRYER WEATHER
THROUGH THE MID TERM. POTENTIAL FOR RAIN RETURNS AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH APPROACH OF ANOTHER SYSTEM FROM THE WEST BY
DY7...THU. WE CAN EXPECT A MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...PEAKING OUT CLOSE TO 90 FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS BY NEXT
WED...AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 836 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

IN GENERAL EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. DID
INCLUDE SOME MVFR FOG AT LOZ AND SME THROUGH THE PREDAWN TIME FRAME.
BUT MID LEVEL DECK WILL BE ROLLING IN DURING THE OVERNIGHT AS WELL
WHICH MAY HELP KEEP MUCH OF ANY FOG FROM FORMING. HOWEVER...EXACT
TIMING OF MOST SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER IS IN QUESTION AND GUIDANCE IS
QUITE A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH VSBYS. THEREFORE STAYED WITH A
COMPROMISE SINCE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN DOING DECENTLY WELL OVER
THE LAST TWO NIGHTS. OTHERWISE...DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTH
AND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS WILL SUPPORT SOME
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY. INCLUDED SOME VCTS FOR NOW...LEAVING ROOM/TIME FOR FINE
TUNING OF ACTIVITY AT TERMINALS WITH FUTURE TAF ISSUANCE/S. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT...BACKING OUT OF THE EAST/NORTHEAST BY
FRIDAY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...RAY








000
FXUS63 KJKL 010255
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1055 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1055 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

SEEING A LITTLE CONVECTION IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST...BEING THE RESULT OF
SOME SFC/BOUNDARY LAYER OF CONVERGENCE. APPEARS TO BE SOME UPSLOPE
COMPONENT ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF BLACK MOUNTAIN AS WELL WHICH HAS BEEN
STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORM CELLS RIGHT ALONG
OR JUST SOUTH OF THE KY/VA STATE LINE. THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN OUTSIDE OF OUR CWA...AND THE OCCASIONAL CELL THAT
MANAGES TO MOVE INTO KY WEAKENS QUICKLY. BEING OF SUCH AN ISOLD
NATURE...DECIDED TO LEAVE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE GRIDS AND
ZONES AND TO ADDRESS THE POTENTIAL WITH A GRAPHICAL NOWCAST PRODUCT.

ALSO MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS AS THIN CI CANOPY
HAS DONE LITTLE TO PREVENT A RAPID DROP OFF OF TEMPS THROUGH THE
EVENING...WHICH HAS BEEN MORE DRAMATIC IN THE NORTH AND EAST.
HOWEVER...MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND ARE BEING
PICKED UP NOW AT A FEW OF OUR SOUTHERN STATIONS. INCREASE IN CLOUDS
SHOULD HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM BOTTOMING OUT TOO MUCH AND MAY
EVEN TEND TO CAUSE A BIT OF REBOUNDING WHERE CEILINGS MATERIALIZE.
OTHERWISE UPDATED THE ZONE PACKAGE TO FRESHEN UP WORDING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 836 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

FORECAST IS IN VERY GOOD SHAPE THIS EVENING. MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS
TO THE GRIDS FOR LATEST HOURLY OBS. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY CHANGES TO
THE ZONES UNTIL NEXT UPDATE...WHEN AT A MINIMUM WORDING WILL BE
FRESHENED UP TO REMOVE EVENING REFERENCES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH KENTUCKY
TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. TO THE SOUTH...A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE ARE TAKING SHAPE...ONE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
ANOTHER NEAR BAYOU COUNTRY IN LOUISIANA. ON RADAR...A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...BUT SO FAR EAST
KENTUCKY HAS BEEN CLEAR. ON SATELLITE...THE EARLIER LOW CLOUDS BROKE
UP IN THE SOUTH AND A DECENT CU FIELD HAS FORMED OVER THE ENTIRE CWA.
THESE CLOUDS HAVE NOT HAMPERED TEMPERATURES MUCH...THOUGH...AS THEY
HAVE MADE IT TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S...SO FAR. WITH THE RETURN
OF WARMER AFTERNOON WEATHER...THE DEW POINTS HAVE ALSO CREPT UP SO
THAT THEY ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...AND ALL THE WHILE THE WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS
DOMINATED THE WEATHER OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTH
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM ALLOWING FOR MORE ENERGY TO MOVE ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE DAY FRIDAY. MORE SIGNIFICANTLY...THOUGH...A
MID LEVEL WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT...STARTING TO CARVE OUT ANOTHER
NODE OF THE EASTERN TROUGH THROUGH THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY BY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE A BIT QUICKER AND FURTHER
EAST WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT THAN THE NAM AND GFS. FOR NOW...WILL
FOLLOW A GENERAL MODEL BLEND WITH SOME LEANING ON THE SPECIFICS FROM
THE HRRR AND NAM12.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A MILDER NIGHT THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY
DUE TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER DEW POINTS. THIS WILL
ALSO LIKELY LIMIT THE FOG DEVELOPMENT TO JUST THE DEEPEST VALLEYS. IN
ADDITION TO THE CLOUDS...A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER
TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL
RAINS EXPECTED LATER FRIDAY...PRIMARILY IN THE FAR EAST. THUNDER WILL
BE A POSSIBILITY LATER FRIDAY AND INTO THE NIGHT AS A COUPLE OF SFC
WAVES PASS THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE GONE WITH JUST ISOLATED THUNDER
CHANCES...THOUGH...AS THE INSTABILITY WILL BE LESS THEN OPTIMAL FOR
WIDESPREAD STORMS INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE CLOUDS TONIGHT AND AGAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO LIMIT THE RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCES SO HAVE MINIMIZED THESE. LIKEWISE...TEMPS WILL BE
TEMPERED BY THE CLOUDS AND PCPN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

STARTED WITH THE BC/CONSSHORT FOR THE T...TD...AND WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THEN PLUGGED IN THE CONSALL SUITE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. MADE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS
TO LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SOME MINOR RIDGE
TO VALLEY SPLITS. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSER TO THE MAV NUMBERS
FROM LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING RATHER THAN THE HIGH MET
ONES TONIGHT AND LOW VALUES FOR FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

GENERALLY SPEAKING OUR WEATHER WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MEAN
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXCEPTION WILL BE A SHORT
WINDOW OF TIME...DYS 6/7...WED/THUR OF NEXT WEEK WHERE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE ANTICYCLONIC TO ZONAL IN NATURE. THIS PERIOD OF SHORT WAVE
RIDGING WILL PROVIDE OUR WARMEST WEATHER OF THE EXTENDED...ALLOWING
TEMPS TO RISE TO MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME LEVELS AND HIGHER DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST. MODELS ARE SHOWING A DECENT ENOUGH
CONSENSUS IN SOLUTIONS WHERE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
GRADUALLY LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE DY5...TUE. ADDITIONAL ENERGY
DROPS OUT OF CANADA BY LATE WEEK...JUST BEYOND THE EXTENDED FORECAST
WINDOW...EFFECTIVELY CARVING OUT A NEW EASTERN CONUS TROUGH.
HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND A
MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO AMPLITUDE/STRUCTURE OF THE
LATTER TROUGH. ECMWF ACTUALLY DEVELOPS A STACKED UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY REGION WHILE THE GFS ADVERTISES A
LOWER AMPLITUDE TROUGH WITH ITS PARENT LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES.

FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF DEEP EASTERN
CONUS TROUGH WILL KEEP A THREAT OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH ROUGHLY THE FIRST
30 HOURS OF THE EXTENDED. THEN WE WILL SEE WARMER AND DRYER WEATHER
THROUGH THE MID TERM. POTENTIAL FOR RAIN RETURNS AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH APPROACH OF ANOTHER SYSTEM FROM THE WEST BY
DY7...THU. WE CAN EXPECT A MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...PEAKING OUT CLOSE TO 90 FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS BY NEXT
WED...AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 836 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

IN GENERAL EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. DID
INCLUDE SOME MVFR FOG AT LOZ AND SME THROUGH THE PREDAWN TIME FRAME.
BUT MID LEVEL DECK WILL BE ROLLING IN DURING THE OVERNIGHT AS WELL
WHICH MAY HELP KEEP MUCH OF ANY FOG FROM FORMING. HOWEVER...EXACT
TIMING OF MOST SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER IS IN QUESTION AND GUIDANCE IS
QUITE A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH VSBYS. THEREFORE STAYED WITH A
COMPROMISE SINCE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN DOING DECENTLY WELL OVER
THE LAST TWO NIGHTS. OTHERWISE...DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTH
AND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS WILL SUPPORT SOME
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY. INCLUDED SOME VCTS FOR NOW...LEAVING ROOM/TIME FOR FINE
TUNING OF ACTIVITY AT TERMINALS WITH FUTURE TAF ISSUANCE/S. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT...BACKING OUT OF THE EAST/NORTHEAST BY
FRIDAY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...RAY







000
FXUS63 KJKL 010036
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
836 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 836 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

FORECAST IS IN VERY GOOD SHAPE THIS EVENING. MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS
TO THE GRIDS FOR LATEST HOURLY OBS. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY CHANGES TO
THE ZONES UNTIL NEXT UPDATE...WHEN AT A MINIMUM WORDING WILL BE
FRESHENED UP TO REMOVE EVENING REFERENCES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH KENTUCKY
TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. TO THE SOUTH...A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE ARE TAKING SHAPE...ONE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
ANOTHER NEAR BAYOU COUNTRY IN LOUISIANA. ON RADAR...A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...BUT SO FAR EAST
KENTUCKY HAS BEEN CLEAR. ON SATELLITE...THE EARLIER LOW CLOUDS BROKE
UP IN THE SOUTH AND A DECENT CU FIELD HAS FORMED OVER THE ENTIRE CWA.
THESE CLOUDS HAVE NOT HAMPERED TEMPERATURES MUCH...THOUGH...AS THEY
HAVE MADE IT TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S...SO FAR. WITH THE RETURN
OF WARMER AFTERNOON WEATHER...THE DEW POINTS HAVE ALSO CREPT UP SO
THAT THEY ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...AND ALL THE WHILE THE WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS
DOMINATED THE WEATHER OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTH
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM ALLOWING FOR MORE ENERGY TO MOVE ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE DAY FRIDAY. MORE SIGNIFICANTLY...THOUGH...A
MID LEVEL WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT...STARTING TO CARVE OUT ANOTHER
NODE OF THE EASTERN TROUGH THROUGH THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY BY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE A BIT QUICKER AND FURTHER
EAST WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT THAN THE NAM AND GFS. FOR NOW...WILL
FOLLOW A GENERAL MODEL BLEND WITH SOME LEANING ON THE SPECIFICS FROM
THE HRRR AND NAM12.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A MILDER NIGHT THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY
DUE TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER DEW POINTS. THIS WILL
ALSO LIKELY LIMIT THE FOG DEVELOPMENT TO JUST THE DEEPEST VALLEYS. IN
ADDITION TO THE CLOUDS...A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER
TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL
RAINS EXPECTED LATER FRIDAY...PRIMARILY IN THE FAR EAST. THUNDER WILL
BE A POSSIBILITY LATER FRIDAY AND INTO THE NIGHT AS A COUPLE OF SFC
WAVES PASS THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE GONE WITH JUST ISOLATED THUNDER
CHANCES...THOUGH...AS THE INSTABILITY WILL BE LESS THEN OPTIMAL FOR
WIDESPREAD STORMS INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE CLOUDS TONIGHT AND AGAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO LIMIT THE RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCES SO HAVE MINIMIZED THESE. LIKEWISE...TEMPS WILL BE
TEMPERED BY THE CLOUDS AND PCPN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

STARTED WITH THE BC/CONSSHORT FOR THE T...TD...AND WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THEN PLUGGED IN THE CONSALL SUITE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. MADE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS
TO LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SOME MINOR RIDGE
TO VALLEY SPLITS. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSER TO THE MAV NUMBERS
FROM LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING RATHER THAN THE HIGH MET
ONES TONIGHT AND LOW VALUES FOR FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

GENERALLY SPEAKING OUR WEATHER WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MEAN
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXCEPTION WILL BE A SHORT
WINDOW OF TIME...DYS 6/7...WED/THUR OF NEXT WEEK WHERE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE ANTICYCLONIC TO ZONAL IN NATURE. THIS PERIOD OF SHORT WAVE
RIDGING WILL PROVIDE OUR WARMEST WEATHER OF THE EXTENDED...ALLOWING
TEMPS TO RISE TO MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME LEVELS AND HIGHER DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST. MODELS ARE SHOWING A DECENT ENOUGH
CONSENSUS IN SOLUTIONS WHERE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
GRADUALLY LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE DY5...TUE. ADDITIONAL ENERGY
DROPS OUT OF CANADA BY LATE WEEK...JUST BEYOND THE EXTENDED FORECAST
WINDOW...EFFECTIVELY CARVING OUT A NEW EASTERN CONUS TROUGH.
HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND A
MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO AMPLITUDE/STRUCTURE OF THE
LATTER TROUGH. ECMWF ACTUALLY DEVELOPS A STACKED UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY REGION WHILE THE GFS ADVERTISES A
LOWER AMPLITUDE TROUGH WITH ITS PARENT LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES.

FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF DEEP EASTERN
CONUS TROUGH WILL KEEP A THREAT OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH ROUGHLY THE FIRST
30 HOURS OF THE EXTENDED. THEN WE WILL SEE WARMER AND DRYER WEATHER
THROUGH THE MID TERM. POTENTIAL FOR RAIN RETURNS AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH APPROACH OF ANOTHER SYSTEM FROM THE WEST BY
DY7...THU. WE CAN EXPECT A MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...PEAKING OUT CLOSE TO 90 FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS BY NEXT
WED...AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 836 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

IN GENERAL EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. DID
INCLUDE SOME MVFR FOG AT LOZ AND SME THROUGH THE PREDAWN TIME FRAME.
BUT MID LEVEL DECK WILL BE ROLLING IN DURING THE OVERNIGHT AS WELL
WHICH MAY HELP KEEP MUCH OF ANY FOG FROM FORMING. HOWEVER...EXACT
TIMING OF MOST SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER IS IN QUESTION AND GUIDANCE IS
QUITE A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH VSBYS. THEREFORE STAYED WITH A
COMPROMISE SINCE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN DOING DECENTLY WELL OVER
THE LAST TWO NIGHTS. OTHERWISE...DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTH
AND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS WILL SUPPORT SOME
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY. INCLUDED SOME VCTS FOR NOW...LEAVING ROOM/TIME FOR FINE
TUNING OF ACTIVITY AT TERMINALS WITH FUTURE TAF ISSUANCE/S. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT...BACKING OUT OF THE EAST/NORTHEAST BY
FRIDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...RAY








000
FXUS63 KJKL 010036
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
836 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 836 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

FORECAST IS IN VERY GOOD SHAPE THIS EVENING. MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS
TO THE GRIDS FOR LATEST HOURLY OBS. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY CHANGES TO
THE ZONES UNTIL NEXT UPDATE...WHEN AT A MINIMUM WORDING WILL BE
FRESHENED UP TO REMOVE EVENING REFERENCES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH KENTUCKY
TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. TO THE SOUTH...A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE ARE TAKING SHAPE...ONE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
ANOTHER NEAR BAYOU COUNTRY IN LOUISIANA. ON RADAR...A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...BUT SO FAR EAST
KENTUCKY HAS BEEN CLEAR. ON SATELLITE...THE EARLIER LOW CLOUDS BROKE
UP IN THE SOUTH AND A DECENT CU FIELD HAS FORMED OVER THE ENTIRE CWA.
THESE CLOUDS HAVE NOT HAMPERED TEMPERATURES MUCH...THOUGH...AS THEY
HAVE MADE IT TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S...SO FAR. WITH THE RETURN
OF WARMER AFTERNOON WEATHER...THE DEW POINTS HAVE ALSO CREPT UP SO
THAT THEY ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...AND ALL THE WHILE THE WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS
DOMINATED THE WEATHER OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTH
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM ALLOWING FOR MORE ENERGY TO MOVE ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE DAY FRIDAY. MORE SIGNIFICANTLY...THOUGH...A
MID LEVEL WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT...STARTING TO CARVE OUT ANOTHER
NODE OF THE EASTERN TROUGH THROUGH THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY BY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE A BIT QUICKER AND FURTHER
EAST WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT THAN THE NAM AND GFS. FOR NOW...WILL
FOLLOW A GENERAL MODEL BLEND WITH SOME LEANING ON THE SPECIFICS FROM
THE HRRR AND NAM12.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A MILDER NIGHT THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY
DUE TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER DEW POINTS. THIS WILL
ALSO LIKELY LIMIT THE FOG DEVELOPMENT TO JUST THE DEEPEST VALLEYS. IN
ADDITION TO THE CLOUDS...A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER
TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL
RAINS EXPECTED LATER FRIDAY...PRIMARILY IN THE FAR EAST. THUNDER WILL
BE A POSSIBILITY LATER FRIDAY AND INTO THE NIGHT AS A COUPLE OF SFC
WAVES PASS THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE GONE WITH JUST ISOLATED THUNDER
CHANCES...THOUGH...AS THE INSTABILITY WILL BE LESS THEN OPTIMAL FOR
WIDESPREAD STORMS INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE CLOUDS TONIGHT AND AGAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO LIMIT THE RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCES SO HAVE MINIMIZED THESE. LIKEWISE...TEMPS WILL BE
TEMPERED BY THE CLOUDS AND PCPN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

STARTED WITH THE BC/CONSSHORT FOR THE T...TD...AND WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THEN PLUGGED IN THE CONSALL SUITE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. MADE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS
TO LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SOME MINOR RIDGE
TO VALLEY SPLITS. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSER TO THE MAV NUMBERS
FROM LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING RATHER THAN THE HIGH MET
ONES TONIGHT AND LOW VALUES FOR FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

GENERALLY SPEAKING OUR WEATHER WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MEAN
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXCEPTION WILL BE A SHORT
WINDOW OF TIME...DYS 6/7...WED/THUR OF NEXT WEEK WHERE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE ANTICYCLONIC TO ZONAL IN NATURE. THIS PERIOD OF SHORT WAVE
RIDGING WILL PROVIDE OUR WARMEST WEATHER OF THE EXTENDED...ALLOWING
TEMPS TO RISE TO MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME LEVELS AND HIGHER DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST. MODELS ARE SHOWING A DECENT ENOUGH
CONSENSUS IN SOLUTIONS WHERE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
GRADUALLY LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE DY5...TUE. ADDITIONAL ENERGY
DROPS OUT OF CANADA BY LATE WEEK...JUST BEYOND THE EXTENDED FORECAST
WINDOW...EFFECTIVELY CARVING OUT A NEW EASTERN CONUS TROUGH.
HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND A
MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO AMPLITUDE/STRUCTURE OF THE
LATTER TROUGH. ECMWF ACTUALLY DEVELOPS A STACKED UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY REGION WHILE THE GFS ADVERTISES A
LOWER AMPLITUDE TROUGH WITH ITS PARENT LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES.

FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF DEEP EASTERN
CONUS TROUGH WILL KEEP A THREAT OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH ROUGHLY THE FIRST
30 HOURS OF THE EXTENDED. THEN WE WILL SEE WARMER AND DRYER WEATHER
THROUGH THE MID TERM. POTENTIAL FOR RAIN RETURNS AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH APPROACH OF ANOTHER SYSTEM FROM THE WEST BY
DY7...THU. WE CAN EXPECT A MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...PEAKING OUT CLOSE TO 90 FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS BY NEXT
WED...AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 836 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

IN GENERAL EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. DID
INCLUDE SOME MVFR FOG AT LOZ AND SME THROUGH THE PREDAWN TIME FRAME.
BUT MID LEVEL DECK WILL BE ROLLING IN DURING THE OVERNIGHT AS WELL
WHICH MAY HELP KEEP MUCH OF ANY FOG FROM FORMING. HOWEVER...EXACT
TIMING OF MOST SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER IS IN QUESTION AND GUIDANCE IS
QUITE A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH VSBYS. THEREFORE STAYED WITH A
COMPROMISE SINCE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN DOING DECENTLY WELL OVER
THE LAST TWO NIGHTS. OTHERWISE...DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTH
AND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS WILL SUPPORT SOME
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY. INCLUDED SOME VCTS FOR NOW...LEAVING ROOM/TIME FOR FINE
TUNING OF ACTIVITY AT TERMINALS WITH FUTURE TAF ISSUANCE/S. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT...BACKING OUT OF THE EAST/NORTHEAST BY
FRIDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...RAY







000
FXUS63 KJKL 311955 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
355 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH KENTUCKY
TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. TO THE SOUTH...A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE ARE TAKING SHAPE...ONE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
ANOTHER NEAR BAYOU COUNTRY IN LOUISIANA. ON RADAR...A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...BUT SO FAR EAST
KENTUCKY HAS BEEN CLEAR. ON SATELLITE...THE EARLIER LOW CLOUDS BROKE
UP IN THE SOUTH AND A DECENT CU FIELD HAS FORMED OVER THE ENTIRE CWA.
THESE CLOUDS HAVE NOT HAMPERED TEMPERATURES MUCH...THOUGH...AS THEY
HAVE MADE IT TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S...SO FAR. WITH THE RETURN
OF WARMER AFTERNOON WEATHER...THE DEWPOINTS HAVE ALSO CREPT UP SO
THAT THEY ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...AND ALL THE WHILE THE WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS
DOMINATED THE WEATHER OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTH
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM ALLOWING FOR MORE ENERGY TO MOVE ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE DAY FRIDAY. MORE SIGNIFICANTLY...THOUGH...A
MID LEVEL WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT...STARTING TO CARVE OUT ANOTHER
NODE OF THE EASTERN TROUGH THROUGH THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY BY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE A BIT QUICKER AND FURTHER
EAST WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT THAN THE NAM AND GFS. FOR NOW...WILL
FOLLOW A GENERAL MODEL BLEND WITH SOME LEANING ON THE SPECIFICS FROM
THE HRRR AND NAM12.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A MILDER NIGHT THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY
DUE TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS. THIS WILL
ALSO LIKELY LIMIT THE FOG DEVELOPMENT TO JUST THE DEEPEST VALLEYS. IN
ADDITION TO THE CLOUDS...A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER
TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL
RAINS EXPECTED LATER FRIDAY...PRIMARILY IN THE FAR EAST. THUNDER WILL
BE A POSSIBILITY LATER FRIDAY AND INTO THE NIGHT AS A COUPLE OF SFC
WAVES PASS THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE GONE WITH JUST ISOLATED THUNDER
CHANCES...THOUGH...AS THE INSTABILITY WILL BE LESS THEN OPTIMAL FOR
WIDESPREAD STORMS INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE CLOUDS TONIGHT AND AGAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO LIMIT THE RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCES SO HAVE MINIMIZED THESE. LIKEWISE...TEMPS WILL BE
TEMPERED BY THE CLOUDS AND PCPN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

STARTED WITH THE BC/CONSSHORT FOR THE T...TD...AND WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THEN PLUGGED IN THE CONSALL SUITE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. MADE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS
TO LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SOME MINOR RIDGE
TO VALLEY SPLITS. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSER TO THE MAV NUMBERS
FROM LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING RATHER THAN THE HIGH MET
ONES TONIGHT AND LOW VALUES FOR FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

GENERALLY SPEAKING OUR WEATHER WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MEAN
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXCEPTION WILL BE A SHORT
WINDOW OF TIME...DYS 6/7...WED/THUR OF NEXT WEEK WHERE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE ANTICYCLONIC TO ZONAL IN NATURE. THIS PERIOD OF SHORT WAVE
RIDGING WILL PROVIDE OUR WARMEST WEATHER OF THE EXTENDED...ALLOWING
TEMPS TO RISE TO MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME LEVELS AND HIGHER DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST. MODELS ARE SHOWING A DECENT ENOUGH
CONSENSUS IN SOLUTIONS WHERE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
GRADUALLY LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE DY5...TUE. ADDITIONAL ENERGY
DROPS OUT OF CANADA BY LATE WEEK...JUST BEYOND THE EXTENDED FORECAST
WINDOW...EFFECTIVELY CARVING OUT A NEW EASTERN CONUS TROUGH.
HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND A
MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO AMPLITUDE/STRUCTURE OF THE
LATTER TROUGH. ECMWF ACTUALLY DEVELOPS A STACKED UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY REGION WHILE THE GFS ADVERTISES A
LOWER AMPLITUDE TROUGH WITH ITS PARENT LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES.

FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF DEEP EASTERN
CONUS TROUGH WILL KEEP A THREAT OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH ROUGHLY THE FIRST
30 HOURS OF THE EXTENDED. THEN WE WILL SEE WARMER AND DRYER WEATHER
THROUGH THE MID TERM. POTENTIAL FOR RAIN RETURNS AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH APPROACH OF ANOTHER SYSTEM FROM THE WEST BY
DY7...THU. WE CAN EXPECT A MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...PEAKING OUT CLOSE TO 90 FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS BY NEXT
WED...AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

EXPECT THE TAFS TO STAY MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE AVIATION PERIOD AS
CLOUDS AROUND 4K FEET BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
STAY THAT WAY INTO FRIDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF EAST
KENTUCKY. FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA AND THIS HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE NORTHERN
TAF SITES. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME FOG IN THE VALLEY SPOTS LATE TONIGHT
INTO DAWN SO HAVE INCLUDED SOME MVFR CONDITIONS AT SME AND LOZ. WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...GREIF





000
FXUS63 KJKL 311955 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
355 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH KENTUCKY
TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. TO THE SOUTH...A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE ARE TAKING SHAPE...ONE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
ANOTHER NEAR BAYOU COUNTRY IN LOUISIANA. ON RADAR...A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...BUT SO FAR EAST
KENTUCKY HAS BEEN CLEAR. ON SATELLITE...THE EARLIER LOW CLOUDS BROKE
UP IN THE SOUTH AND A DECENT CU FIELD HAS FORMED OVER THE ENTIRE CWA.
THESE CLOUDS HAVE NOT HAMPERED TEMPERATURES MUCH...THOUGH...AS THEY
HAVE MADE IT TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S...SO FAR. WITH THE RETURN
OF WARMER AFTERNOON WEATHER...THE DEWPOINTS HAVE ALSO CREPT UP SO
THAT THEY ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...AND ALL THE WHILE THE WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS
DOMINATED THE WEATHER OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTH
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM ALLOWING FOR MORE ENERGY TO MOVE ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE DAY FRIDAY. MORE SIGNIFICANTLY...THOUGH...A
MID LEVEL WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT...STARTING TO CARVE OUT ANOTHER
NODE OF THE EASTERN TROUGH THROUGH THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY BY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE A BIT QUICKER AND FURTHER
EAST WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT THAN THE NAM AND GFS. FOR NOW...WILL
FOLLOW A GENERAL MODEL BLEND WITH SOME LEANING ON THE SPECIFICS FROM
THE HRRR AND NAM12.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A MILDER NIGHT THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY
DUE TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS. THIS WILL
ALSO LIKELY LIMIT THE FOG DEVELOPMENT TO JUST THE DEEPEST VALLEYS. IN
ADDITION TO THE CLOUDS...A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER
TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL
RAINS EXPECTED LATER FRIDAY...PRIMARILY IN THE FAR EAST. THUNDER WILL
BE A POSSIBILITY LATER FRIDAY AND INTO THE NIGHT AS A COUPLE OF SFC
WAVES PASS THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE GONE WITH JUST ISOLATED THUNDER
CHANCES...THOUGH...AS THE INSTABILITY WILL BE LESS THEN OPTIMAL FOR
WIDESPREAD STORMS INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE CLOUDS TONIGHT AND AGAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO LIMIT THE RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCES SO HAVE MINIMIZED THESE. LIKEWISE...TEMPS WILL BE
TEMPERED BY THE CLOUDS AND PCPN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

STARTED WITH THE BC/CONSSHORT FOR THE T...TD...AND WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THEN PLUGGED IN THE CONSALL SUITE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. MADE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS
TO LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SOME MINOR RIDGE
TO VALLEY SPLITS. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSER TO THE MAV NUMBERS
FROM LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING RATHER THAN THE HIGH MET
ONES TONIGHT AND LOW VALUES FOR FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

GENERALLY SPEAKING OUR WEATHER WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MEAN
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXCEPTION WILL BE A SHORT
WINDOW OF TIME...DYS 6/7...WED/THUR OF NEXT WEEK WHERE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE ANTICYCLONIC TO ZONAL IN NATURE. THIS PERIOD OF SHORT WAVE
RIDGING WILL PROVIDE OUR WARMEST WEATHER OF THE EXTENDED...ALLOWING
TEMPS TO RISE TO MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME LEVELS AND HIGHER DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST. MODELS ARE SHOWING A DECENT ENOUGH
CONSENSUS IN SOLUTIONS WHERE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
GRADUALLY LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE DY5...TUE. ADDITIONAL ENERGY
DROPS OUT OF CANADA BY LATE WEEK...JUST BEYOND THE EXTENDED FORECAST
WINDOW...EFFECTIVELY CARVING OUT A NEW EASTERN CONUS TROUGH.
HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND A
MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO AMPLITUDE/STRUCTURE OF THE
LATTER TROUGH. ECMWF ACTUALLY DEVELOPS A STACKED UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY REGION WHILE THE GFS ADVERTISES A
LOWER AMPLITUDE TROUGH WITH ITS PARENT LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES.

FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF DEEP EASTERN
CONUS TROUGH WILL KEEP A THREAT OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH ROUGHLY THE FIRST
30 HOURS OF THE EXTENDED. THEN WE WILL SEE WARMER AND DRYER WEATHER
THROUGH THE MID TERM. POTENTIAL FOR RAIN RETURNS AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH APPROACH OF ANOTHER SYSTEM FROM THE WEST BY
DY7...THU. WE CAN EXPECT A MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...PEAKING OUT CLOSE TO 90 FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS BY NEXT
WED...AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

EXPECT THE TAFS TO STAY MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE AVIATION PERIOD AS
CLOUDS AROUND 4K FEET BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
STAY THAT WAY INTO FRIDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF EAST
KENTUCKY. FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA AND THIS HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE NORTHERN
TAF SITES. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME FOG IN THE VALLEY SPOTS LATE TONIGHT
INTO DAWN SO HAVE INCLUDED SOME MVFR CONDITIONS AT SME AND LOZ. WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...GREIF






000
FXUS63 KJKL 311835 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
235 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO FINE TUNE SKY COVER AND TEMPS THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1005 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

13Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER EAST KENTUCKY. THE
EARLY MORNING FOG HAS JUST ABOUT BURNED OFF AND SKIES ARE CLEAR
OUTSIDE OF SOME LINGERING STRATUS IN THE FAR SOUTH BENEATH SOME
MID LEVEL ONES. WITH THE SUNSHINE THIS MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL
PROMPTLY REBOUND FROM THE LOWS...MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S...
INTO THE LOW AND MID 80S BY LATE AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP A
BIT...TOO...COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S. WINDS ARE LIGHT OUT THERE...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. EXPECT A PLEASANT ENOUGH SUMMER DAY...WARMER THAN IT HAS
BEEN...THAT WILL BE DRY FOR MOST. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE DOWN ALONG
THE TENNESSEE AND VIRGINIA BORDERS WHERE SOME SHOWERS MAY SNEAK IN BY
EARLY EVENING FROM A SFC WAVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. HAVE
UPDATED THE GRIDS TO FINE TUNE THE SKY AND WX GRIDS THIS MORNING AND
ALSO TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE LATEST OBS...TRENDS...AND CONSSHORT
GUIDANCE. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS
ALONG WITH THE ISSUANCE OF FRESHENED ZONES AND A FOG LESS HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

CENTER OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ROTATE AROUND SOUTHERN
JAMES BAY DURING THE DAY TODAY AS IT REMAINS BLOCKED BETWEEN TWO
STRONG RIDGES...ONE ACROSS THE SW CONUS...AND ONE OFF THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC COAST. UNLIKE PREVIOUS DAYS WHERE THE STRONG PULL OF
NORTHERLY AIR BROUGHT WITH IT UNSEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S...BY TODAY MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WRLY...AND
THEN EVENTUALLY MORE SWRLY. THIS WILL BEGIN PULLING IN WARMER TEMPS
FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH.

IN ADDITION...THE NORTHERN CWA SHOULD EXPECT TO FIND ITSELF UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NO MID LEVEL WAVES MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE RESULT WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND GOOD RADIATIONAL HEATING...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PULLING
BACK UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S...JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THEN
FOR THE SOUTHERN CWA...A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT STORY IS EXPECTED. A
SMALL WAVE OF MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL PASS NEAR THE STALLED SURFACE
BOUNDARY ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TODAY...BRINGING A FOCUSED
CENTER OF PRECIP TO GA AND SC BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS PRECIP MAY
SPREAD FAR ENOUGH INTO OUR REGION UNDER THE SW FLOW LATE IN THE DAY
THAT A FEW ISOLATED POPS ALONG THE TN/VA BORDER WERE WARRANTED. IT
WILL ALSO CREATE AN INCREASE IN CIGS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...PREVENTING TEMPS FROM RISING QUITE AS
HIGH AS THOSE TO THE NORTH. UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S WILL BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION...STUCK WITH THE MENTION OF RAIN SHOWERS
ONLY.

THE MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LEE SIDE OF THE
TROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. SHORT RANGE MODELS
ARE ALL STILL IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE EXTENT OF MOISTURE
FROM THIS WAVE WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...EXPANDING
ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN KY BY AFTERNOON TOMORROW. GIVEN THE DAYTIME
INSTABILITY...AND CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE WAVE ENERGY...INCLUDED
MENTION OF THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE...SPREADING FROM THE SOUTHERN CWA NW/WARD
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND ENGULFING MUCH OF THE STATE BY TOMORROW. THE
CLOUD COVER IN ADDITION TO RAIN CHANCES WILL ACTUALLY WORK TO
REGULATE THE HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW. THE NORTHERN CWA WILL BE THE
WARMEST...AS THEY ARE EXPECTED TO SUCCUMB TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE
CLOUDS AND RAIN LAST. HOWEVER...THE HIGHER TERRAIN COULD SEE WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ONCE MORE...IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...CONTINUED WITH THE IDEA FOR A GOOD RIDGE
VALLEY SPLIT UNDER VERY LIGHT SERLY WINDS. THESE LIGHT WINDS AND AN
EXPECTED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WITH THE SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE...COULD
BRING THE RETURN OF FOG TO THE VALLEY LOCATIONS ONCE MORE...THOUGH
INCOMING CLOUDS WILL PREVENT IT FROM BECOMING DENSE AND WIDESPREAD.
CONTINUED WITH PATCHY WORDING FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE AND TROUGH
STAYING IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MODELS START OUT
ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA
AS SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPS OUT OF CANADA AND STARTS DIGGING AN
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES TOWARD
THE AREA IT WILL ERODE THE MID LEVEL CAPPING THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT.
WITH THE CAP GONE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
TO BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA FROM FRIDAY NIGHT TROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. BY SUNDAY
EVENING THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL HAVE MOVED TO EAST OF THE AREA
AND WILL THROTTLE THE CONVECTION. AS THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES TO THE
EAST ON MONDAY THE HEIGHTS OF THE REMAINING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE
RISING AND A UPPER LOW WILL BE TRYING BREAK OFF AND DIG TO THE
SOUTH. BY TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH AND THE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL START TO WEAKEN. THIS WILL ALLOW A
SHORT WAVE TO DROP INTO THE CENTRAL US AND START TO PUSH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL OHIO...STILL WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
KEEP THINGS FAIRLY DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS THROUGH MONDAY AND
THEN SUMMER TEMPERATURES RETURN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WENT WITH
THE MODEL BLEND WITH SOME BIAS CORRECTIONS APPLIED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

EXPECT THE TAFS TO STAY MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE AVIATION PERIOD AS
CLOUDS AROUND 4K FEET BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
STAY THAT WAY INTO FRIDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF EAST
KENTUCKY. FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA AND THIS HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE NORTHERN
TAF SITES. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME FOG IN THE VALLEY SPOTS LATE TONIGHT
INTO DAWN SO HAVE INCLUDED SOME MVFR CONDITIONS AT SME AND LOZ. WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...GREIF





000
FXUS63 KJKL 311835 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
235 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO FINE TUNE SKY COVER AND TEMPS THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1005 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

13Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER EAST KENTUCKY. THE
EARLY MORNING FOG HAS JUST ABOUT BURNED OFF AND SKIES ARE CLEAR
OUTSIDE OF SOME LINGERING STRATUS IN THE FAR SOUTH BENEATH SOME
MID LEVEL ONES. WITH THE SUNSHINE THIS MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL
PROMPTLY REBOUND FROM THE LOWS...MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S...
INTO THE LOW AND MID 80S BY LATE AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP A
BIT...TOO...COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S. WINDS ARE LIGHT OUT THERE...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. EXPECT A PLEASANT ENOUGH SUMMER DAY...WARMER THAN IT HAS
BEEN...THAT WILL BE DRY FOR MOST. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE DOWN ALONG
THE TENNESSEE AND VIRGINIA BORDERS WHERE SOME SHOWERS MAY SNEAK IN BY
EARLY EVENING FROM A SFC WAVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. HAVE
UPDATED THE GRIDS TO FINE TUNE THE SKY AND WX GRIDS THIS MORNING AND
ALSO TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE LATEST OBS...TRENDS...AND CONSSHORT
GUIDANCE. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS
ALONG WITH THE ISSUANCE OF FRESHENED ZONES AND A FOG LESS HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

CENTER OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ROTATE AROUND SOUTHERN
JAMES BAY DURING THE DAY TODAY AS IT REMAINS BLOCKED BETWEEN TWO
STRONG RIDGES...ONE ACROSS THE SW CONUS...AND ONE OFF THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC COAST. UNLIKE PREVIOUS DAYS WHERE THE STRONG PULL OF
NORTHERLY AIR BROUGHT WITH IT UNSEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S...BY TODAY MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WRLY...AND
THEN EVENTUALLY MORE SWRLY. THIS WILL BEGIN PULLING IN WARMER TEMPS
FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH.

IN ADDITION...THE NORTHERN CWA SHOULD EXPECT TO FIND ITSELF UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NO MID LEVEL WAVES MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE RESULT WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND GOOD RADIATIONAL HEATING...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PULLING
BACK UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S...JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THEN
FOR THE SOUTHERN CWA...A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT STORY IS EXPECTED. A
SMALL WAVE OF MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL PASS NEAR THE STALLED SURFACE
BOUNDARY ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TODAY...BRINGING A FOCUSED
CENTER OF PRECIP TO GA AND SC BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS PRECIP MAY
SPREAD FAR ENOUGH INTO OUR REGION UNDER THE SW FLOW LATE IN THE DAY
THAT A FEW ISOLATED POPS ALONG THE TN/VA BORDER WERE WARRANTED. IT
WILL ALSO CREATE AN INCREASE IN CIGS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...PREVENTING TEMPS FROM RISING QUITE AS
HIGH AS THOSE TO THE NORTH. UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S WILL BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION...STUCK WITH THE MENTION OF RAIN SHOWERS
ONLY.

THE MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LEE SIDE OF THE
TROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. SHORT RANGE MODELS
ARE ALL STILL IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE EXTENT OF MOISTURE
FROM THIS WAVE WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...EXPANDING
ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN KY BY AFTERNOON TOMORROW. GIVEN THE DAYTIME
INSTABILITY...AND CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE WAVE ENERGY...INCLUDED
MENTION OF THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE...SPREADING FROM THE SOUTHERN CWA NW/WARD
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND ENGULFING MUCH OF THE STATE BY TOMORROW. THE
CLOUD COVER IN ADDITION TO RAIN CHANCES WILL ACTUALLY WORK TO
REGULATE THE HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW. THE NORTHERN CWA WILL BE THE
WARMEST...AS THEY ARE EXPECTED TO SUCCUMB TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE
CLOUDS AND RAIN LAST. HOWEVER...THE HIGHER TERRAIN COULD SEE WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ONCE MORE...IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...CONTINUED WITH THE IDEA FOR A GOOD RIDGE
VALLEY SPLIT UNDER VERY LIGHT SERLY WINDS. THESE LIGHT WINDS AND AN
EXPECTED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WITH THE SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE...COULD
BRING THE RETURN OF FOG TO THE VALLEY LOCATIONS ONCE MORE...THOUGH
INCOMING CLOUDS WILL PREVENT IT FROM BECOMING DENSE AND WIDESPREAD.
CONTINUED WITH PATCHY WORDING FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE AND TROUGH
STAYING IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MODELS START OUT
ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA
AS SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPS OUT OF CANADA AND STARTS DIGGING AN
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES TOWARD
THE AREA IT WILL ERODE THE MID LEVEL CAPPING THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT.
WITH THE CAP GONE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
TO BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA FROM FRIDAY NIGHT TROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. BY SUNDAY
EVENING THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL HAVE MOVED TO EAST OF THE AREA
AND WILL THROTTLE THE CONVECTION. AS THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES TO THE
EAST ON MONDAY THE HEIGHTS OF THE REMAINING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE
RISING AND A UPPER LOW WILL BE TRYING BREAK OFF AND DIG TO THE
SOUTH. BY TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH AND THE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL START TO WEAKEN. THIS WILL ALLOW A
SHORT WAVE TO DROP INTO THE CENTRAL US AND START TO PUSH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL OHIO...STILL WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
KEEP THINGS FAIRLY DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS THROUGH MONDAY AND
THEN SUMMER TEMPERATURES RETURN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WENT WITH
THE MODEL BLEND WITH SOME BIAS CORRECTIONS APPLIED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

EXPECT THE TAFS TO STAY MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE AVIATION PERIOD AS
CLOUDS AROUND 4K FEET BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
STAY THAT WAY INTO FRIDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF EAST
KENTUCKY. FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA AND THIS HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE NORTHERN
TAF SITES. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME FOG IN THE VALLEY SPOTS LATE TONIGHT
INTO DAWN SO HAVE INCLUDED SOME MVFR CONDITIONS AT SME AND LOZ. WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...GREIF






000
FXUS63 KJKL 311405 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1005 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

13Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER EAST KENTUCKY. THE
EARLY MORNING FOG HAS JUST ABOUT BURNED OFF AND SKIES ARE CLEAR
OUTSIDE OF SOME LINGERING STRATUS IN THE FAR SOUTH BENEATH SOME
MID LEVEL ONES. WITH THE SUNSHINE THIS MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL
PROMPTLY REBOUND FROM THE LOWS...MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S...
INTO THE LOW AND MID 80S BY LATE AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP A
BIT...TOO...COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S. WINDS ARE LIGHT OUT THERE...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. EXPECT A PLEASANT ENOUGH SUMMER DAY...WARMER THAN IT HAS
BEEN...THAT WILL BE DRY FOR MOST. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE DOWN ALONG
THE TENNESSEE AND VIRGINIA BORDERS WHERE SOME SHOWERS MAY SNEAK IN BY
EARLY EVENING FROM A SFC WAVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. HAVE
UPDATED THE GRIDS TO FINE TUNE THE SKY AND WX GRIDS THIS MORNING AND
ALSO TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE LATEST OBS...TRENDS...AND CONSSHORT
GUIDANCE. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS
ALONG WITH THE ISSUANCE OF FRESHENED ZONES AND A FOG LESS HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

CENTER OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ROTATE AROUND SOUTHERN
JAMES BAY DURING THE DAY TODAY AS IT REMAINS BLOCKED BETWEEN TWO
STRONG RIDGES...ONE ACROSS THE SW CONUS...AND ONE OFF THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC COAST. UNLIKE PREVIOUS DAYS WHERE THE STRONG PULL OF
NORTHERLY AIR BROUGHT WITH IT UNSEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S...BY TODAY MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WRLY...AND
THEN EVENTUALLY MORE SWRLY. THIS WILL BEGIN PULLING IN WARMER TEMPS
FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH.

IN ADDITION...THE NORTHERN CWA SHOULD EXPECT TO FIND ITSELF UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NO MID LEVEL WAVES MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE RESULT WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND GOOD RADIATIONAL HEATING...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PULLING
BACK UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S...JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THEN
FOR THE SOUTHERN CWA...A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT STORY IS EXPECTED. A
SMALL WAVE OF MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL PASS NEAR THE STALLED SURFACE
BOUNDARY ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TODAY...BRINGING A FOCUSED
CENTER OF PRECIP TO GA AND SC BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS PRECIP MAY
SPREAD FAR ENOUGH INTO OUR REGION UNDER THE SW FLOW LATE IN THE DAY
THAT A FEW ISOLATED POPS ALONG THE TN/VA BORDER WERE WARRANTED. IT
WILL ALSO CREATE AN INCREASE IN CIGS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...PREVENTING TEMPS FROM RISING QUITE AS
HIGH AS THOSE TO THE NORTH. UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S WILL BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION...STUCK WITH THE MENTION OF RAIN SHOWERS
ONLY.

THE MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LEE SIDE OF THE
TROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. SHORT RANGE MODELS
ARE ALL STILL IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE EXTENT OF MOISTURE
FROM THIS WAVE WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...EXPANDING
ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN KY BY AFTERNOON TOMORROW. GIVEN THE DAYTIME
INSTABILITY...AND CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE WAVE ENERGY...INCLUDED
MENTION OF THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE...SPREADING FROM THE SOUTHERN CWA NW/WARD
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND ENGULFING MUCH OF THE STATE BY TOMORROW. THE
CLOUD COVER IN ADDITION TO RAIN CHANCES WILL ACTUALLY WORK TO
REGULATE THE HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW. THE NORTHERN CWA WILL BE THE
WARMEST...AS THEY ARE EXPECTED TO SUCCUMB TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE
CLOUDS AND RAIN LAST. HOWEVER...THE HIGHER TERRAIN COULD SEE WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ONCE MORE...IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...CONTINUED WITH THE IDEA FOR A GOOD RIDGE
VALLEY SPLIT UNDER VERY LIGHT SERLY WINDS. THESE LIGHT WINDS AND AN
EXPECTED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WITH THE SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE...COULD
BRING THE RETURN OF FOG TO THE VALLEY LOCATIONS ONCE MORE...THOUGH
INCOMING CLOUDS WILL PREVENT IT FROM BECOMING DENSE AND WIDESPREAD.
CONTINUED WITH PATCHY WORDING FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE AND TROUGH
STAYING IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MODELS START OUT
ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA
AS SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPS OUT OF CANADA AND STARTS DIGGING AN
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES TOWARD
THE AREA IT WILL ERODE THE MID LEVEL CAPPING THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT.
WITH THE CAP GONE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
TO BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA FROM FRIDAY NIGHT TROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. BY SUNDAY
EVENING THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL HAVE MOVED TO EAST OF THE AREA
AND WILL THROTTLE THE CONVECTION. AS THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES TO THE
EAST ON MONDAY THE HEIGHTS OF THE REMAINING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE
RISING AND A UPPER LOW WILL BE TRYING BREAK OFF AND DIG TO THE
SOUTH. BY TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH AND THE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL START TO WEAKEN. THIS WILL ALLOW A
SHORT WAVE TO DROP INTO THE CENTRAL US AND START TO PUSH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL OHIO...STILL WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
KEEP THINGS FAIRLY DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS THROUGH MONDAY AND
THEN SUMMER TEMPERATURES RETURN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WENT WITH
THE MODEL BLEND WITH SOME BIAS CORRECTIONS APPLIED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 708 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

ONCE FOG BURNS OFF AT KSME...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BULK
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR THE TAF SITES. EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE
TONIGHT WHEN THE VALLEY SITES ARE EXPECTED TO SEE ANOTHER BOUT OF
POTENTIAL MVFR CONDITIONS FROM FOG...WHILE THE RIDGES MAY DIP DOWN
FOR AN HOUR OR SO. CANNOT RULE OUT LOWER VSBY AND CIGS FOR A TIME
CLOSER TO DAWN AT KSME DUE TO LIGHT BUT PREDOMINATE SW FLOW...AS WAS
THE CASE THIS MORNING. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. VFR CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AT
KSME AND KLOZ AHEAD OF RAIN SHOWER POTENTIAL POISED TO IMPACT FAR SE
KENTUCKY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
ISOLATED AND WILL POTENTIALLY NEAR THE TAF SITES SO LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD THAT UNCERTAINTY WARRANTED IT NOT BEING INCLUDED IN
THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...JMW





000
FXUS63 KJKL 311405 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1005 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

13Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER EAST KENTUCKY. THE
EARLY MORNING FOG HAS JUST ABOUT BURNED OFF AND SKIES ARE CLEAR
OUTSIDE OF SOME LINGERING STRATUS IN THE FAR SOUTH BENEATH SOME
MID LEVEL ONES. WITH THE SUNSHINE THIS MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL
PROMPTLY REBOUND FROM THE LOWS...MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S...
INTO THE LOW AND MID 80S BY LATE AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP A
BIT...TOO...COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S. WINDS ARE LIGHT OUT THERE...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. EXPECT A PLEASANT ENOUGH SUMMER DAY...WARMER THAN IT HAS
BEEN...THAT WILL BE DRY FOR MOST. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE DOWN ALONG
THE TENNESSEE AND VIRGINIA BORDERS WHERE SOME SHOWERS MAY SNEAK IN BY
EARLY EVENING FROM A SFC WAVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. HAVE
UPDATED THE GRIDS TO FINE TUNE THE SKY AND WX GRIDS THIS MORNING AND
ALSO TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE LATEST OBS...TRENDS...AND CONSSHORT
GUIDANCE. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS
ALONG WITH THE ISSUANCE OF FRESHENED ZONES AND A FOG LESS HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

CENTER OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ROTATE AROUND SOUTHERN
JAMES BAY DURING THE DAY TODAY AS IT REMAINS BLOCKED BETWEEN TWO
STRONG RIDGES...ONE ACROSS THE SW CONUS...AND ONE OFF THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC COAST. UNLIKE PREVIOUS DAYS WHERE THE STRONG PULL OF
NORTHERLY AIR BROUGHT WITH IT UNSEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S...BY TODAY MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WRLY...AND
THEN EVENTUALLY MORE SWRLY. THIS WILL BEGIN PULLING IN WARMER TEMPS
FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH.

IN ADDITION...THE NORTHERN CWA SHOULD EXPECT TO FIND ITSELF UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NO MID LEVEL WAVES MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE RESULT WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND GOOD RADIATIONAL HEATING...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PULLING
BACK UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S...JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THEN
FOR THE SOUTHERN CWA...A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT STORY IS EXPECTED. A
SMALL WAVE OF MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL PASS NEAR THE STALLED SURFACE
BOUNDARY ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TODAY...BRINGING A FOCUSED
CENTER OF PRECIP TO GA AND SC BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS PRECIP MAY
SPREAD FAR ENOUGH INTO OUR REGION UNDER THE SW FLOW LATE IN THE DAY
THAT A FEW ISOLATED POPS ALONG THE TN/VA BORDER WERE WARRANTED. IT
WILL ALSO CREATE AN INCREASE IN CIGS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...PREVENTING TEMPS FROM RISING QUITE AS
HIGH AS THOSE TO THE NORTH. UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S WILL BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION...STUCK WITH THE MENTION OF RAIN SHOWERS
ONLY.

THE MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LEE SIDE OF THE
TROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. SHORT RANGE MODELS
ARE ALL STILL IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE EXTENT OF MOISTURE
FROM THIS WAVE WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...EXPANDING
ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN KY BY AFTERNOON TOMORROW. GIVEN THE DAYTIME
INSTABILITY...AND CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE WAVE ENERGY...INCLUDED
MENTION OF THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE...SPREADING FROM THE SOUTHERN CWA NW/WARD
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND ENGULFING MUCH OF THE STATE BY TOMORROW. THE
CLOUD COVER IN ADDITION TO RAIN CHANCES WILL ACTUALLY WORK TO
REGULATE THE HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW. THE NORTHERN CWA WILL BE THE
WARMEST...AS THEY ARE EXPECTED TO SUCCUMB TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE
CLOUDS AND RAIN LAST. HOWEVER...THE HIGHER TERRAIN COULD SEE WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ONCE MORE...IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...CONTINUED WITH THE IDEA FOR A GOOD RIDGE
VALLEY SPLIT UNDER VERY LIGHT SERLY WINDS. THESE LIGHT WINDS AND AN
EXPECTED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WITH THE SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE...COULD
BRING THE RETURN OF FOG TO THE VALLEY LOCATIONS ONCE MORE...THOUGH
INCOMING CLOUDS WILL PREVENT IT FROM BECOMING DENSE AND WIDESPREAD.
CONTINUED WITH PATCHY WORDING FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE AND TROUGH
STAYING IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MODELS START OUT
ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA
AS SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPS OUT OF CANADA AND STARTS DIGGING AN
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES TOWARD
THE AREA IT WILL ERODE THE MID LEVEL CAPPING THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT.
WITH THE CAP GONE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
TO BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA FROM FRIDAY NIGHT TROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. BY SUNDAY
EVENING THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL HAVE MOVED TO EAST OF THE AREA
AND WILL THROTTLE THE CONVECTION. AS THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES TO THE
EAST ON MONDAY THE HEIGHTS OF THE REMAINING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE
RISING AND A UPPER LOW WILL BE TRYING BREAK OFF AND DIG TO THE
SOUTH. BY TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH AND THE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL START TO WEAKEN. THIS WILL ALLOW A
SHORT WAVE TO DROP INTO THE CENTRAL US AND START TO PUSH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL OHIO...STILL WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
KEEP THINGS FAIRLY DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS THROUGH MONDAY AND
THEN SUMMER TEMPERATURES RETURN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WENT WITH
THE MODEL BLEND WITH SOME BIAS CORRECTIONS APPLIED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 708 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

ONCE FOG BURNS OFF AT KSME...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BULK
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR THE TAF SITES. EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE
TONIGHT WHEN THE VALLEY SITES ARE EXPECTED TO SEE ANOTHER BOUT OF
POTENTIAL MVFR CONDITIONS FROM FOG...WHILE THE RIDGES MAY DIP DOWN
FOR AN HOUR OR SO. CANNOT RULE OUT LOWER VSBY AND CIGS FOR A TIME
CLOSER TO DAWN AT KSME DUE TO LIGHT BUT PREDOMINATE SW FLOW...AS WAS
THE CASE THIS MORNING. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. VFR CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AT
KSME AND KLOZ AHEAD OF RAIN SHOWER POTENTIAL POISED TO IMPACT FAR SE
KENTUCKY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
ISOLATED AND WILL POTENTIALLY NEAR THE TAF SITES SO LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD THAT UNCERTAINTY WARRANTED IT NOT BEING INCLUDED IN
THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...JMW






000
FXUS63 KJKL 311109
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
709 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

CENTER OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ROTATE AROUND SOUTHERN
JAMES BAY DURING THE DAY TODAY AS IT REMAINS BLOCKED BETWEEN TWO
STRONG RIDGES...ONE ACROSS THE SW CONUS...AND ONE OFF THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC COAST. UNLIKE PREVIOUS DAYS WHERE THE STRONG PULL OF
NORTHERLY AIR BROUGHT WITH IT UNSEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S...BY TODAY MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WRLY...AND
THEN EVENTUALLY MORE SWRLY. THIS WILL BEGIN PULLING IN WARMER TEMPS
FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH.

IN ADDITION...THE NORTHERN CWA SHOULD EXPECT TO FIND ITSELF UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NO MID LEVEL WAVES MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE RESULT WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND GOOD RADIATIONAL HEATING...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PULLING
BACK UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S...JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THEN
FOR THE SOUTHERN CWA...A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT STORY IS EXPECTED. A
SMALL WAVE OF MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL PASS NEAR THE STALLED SURFACE
BOUNDARY ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TODAY...BRINGING A FOCUSED
CENTER OF PRECIP TO GA AND SC BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS PRECIP MAY
SPREAD FAR ENOUGH INTO OUR REGION UNDER THE SW FLOW LATE IN THE DAY
THAT A FEW ISOLATED POPS ALONG THE TN/VA BORDER WERE WARRANTED. IT
WILL ALSO CREATE AN INCREASE IN CIGS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...PREVENTING TEMPS FROM RISING QUITE AS
HIGH AS THOSE TO THE NORTH. UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S WILL BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION...STUCK WITH THE MENTION OF RAIN SHOWERS
ONLY.

THE MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LEE SIDE OF THE
TROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. SHORT RANGE MODELS
ARE ALL STILL IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE EXTENT OF MOISTURE
FROM THIS WAVE WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...EXPANDING
ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN KY BY AFTERNOON TOMORROW. GIVEN THE DAYTIME
INSTABILITY...AND CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE WAVE ENERGY...INCLUDED
MENTION OF THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE...SPREADING FROM THE SOUTHERN CWA NW/WARD
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND ENGULFING MUCH OF THE STATE BY TOMORROW. THE
CLOUD COVER IN ADDITION TO RAIN CHANCES WILL ACTUALLY WORK TO
REGULATE THE HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW. THE NORTHERN CWA WILL BE THE
WARMEST...AS THEY ARE EXPECTED TO SUCCUMB TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE
CLOUDS AND RAIN LAST. HOWEVER...THE HIGHER TERRAIN COULD SEE WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ONCE MORE...IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...CONTINUED WITH THE IDEA FOR A GOOD RIDGE
VALLEY SPLIT UNDER VERY LIGHT SERLY WINDS. THESE LIGHT WINDS AND AN
EXPECTED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WITH THE SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE...COULD
BRING THE RETURN OF FOG TO THE VALLEY LOCATIONS ONCE MORE...THOUGH
INCOMING CLOUDS WILL PREVENT IT FROM BECOMING DENSE AND WIDESPREAD.
CONTINUED WITH PATCHY WORDING FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE AND TROUGH
STAYING IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MODELS START OUT
ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA
AS SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPS OUT OF CANADA AND STARTS DIGGING AN
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES TOWARD
THE AREA IT WILL ERODE THE MID LEVEL CAPPING THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT.
WITH THE CAP GONE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
TO BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA FROM FRIDAY NIGHT TROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. BY SUNDAY
EVENING THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL HAVE MOVED TO EAST OF THE AREA
AND WILL THROTTLE THE CONVECTION. AS THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES TO THE
EAST ON MONDAY THE HEIGHTS OF THE REMAINING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE
RISING AND A UPPER LOW WILL BE TRYING BREAK OFF AND DIG TO THE
SOUTH. BY TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH AND THE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL START TO WEAKEN. THIS WILL ALLOW A
SHORT WAVE TO DROP INTO THE CENTRAL US AND START TO PUSH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL OHIO...STILL WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
KEEP THINGS FAIRLY DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS THROUGH MONDAY AND
THEN SUMMER TEMPERATURES RETURN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WENT WITH
THE MODEL BLEND WITH SOME BIAS CORRECTIONS APPLIED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 708 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

ONCE FOG BURNS OFF AT KSME...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BULK
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR THE TAF SITES. EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE
TONIGHT WHEN THE VALLEY SITES ARE EXPECTED TO SEE ANOTHER BOUT OF
POTENTIAL MVFR CONDITIONS FROM FOG...WHILE THE RIDGES MAY DIP DOWN
FOR AN HOUR OR SO. CANNOT RULE OUT LOWER VSBY AND CIGS FOR A TIME
CLOSER TO DAWN AT KSME DUE TO LIGHT BUT PREDOMINATE SW FLOW...AS WAS
THE CASE THIS MORNING. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. VFR CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AT
KSME AND KLOZ AHEAD OF RAIN SHOWER POTENTIAL POISED TO IMPACT FAR SE
KENTUCKY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
ISOLATED AND WILL POTENTIALLY NEAR THE TAF SITES SO LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD THAT UNCERTAINTY WARRANTED IT NOT BEING INCLUDED IN
THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...JMW








000
FXUS63 KJKL 311109
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
709 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

CENTER OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ROTATE AROUND SOUTHERN
JAMES BAY DURING THE DAY TODAY AS IT REMAINS BLOCKED BETWEEN TWO
STRONG RIDGES...ONE ACROSS THE SW CONUS...AND ONE OFF THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC COAST. UNLIKE PREVIOUS DAYS WHERE THE STRONG PULL OF
NORTHERLY AIR BROUGHT WITH IT UNSEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S...BY TODAY MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WRLY...AND
THEN EVENTUALLY MORE SWRLY. THIS WILL BEGIN PULLING IN WARMER TEMPS
FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH.

IN ADDITION...THE NORTHERN CWA SHOULD EXPECT TO FIND ITSELF UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NO MID LEVEL WAVES MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE RESULT WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND GOOD RADIATIONAL HEATING...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PULLING
BACK UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S...JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THEN
FOR THE SOUTHERN CWA...A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT STORY IS EXPECTED. A
SMALL WAVE OF MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL PASS NEAR THE STALLED SURFACE
BOUNDARY ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TODAY...BRINGING A FOCUSED
CENTER OF PRECIP TO GA AND SC BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS PRECIP MAY
SPREAD FAR ENOUGH INTO OUR REGION UNDER THE SW FLOW LATE IN THE DAY
THAT A FEW ISOLATED POPS ALONG THE TN/VA BORDER WERE WARRANTED. IT
WILL ALSO CREATE AN INCREASE IN CIGS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...PREVENTING TEMPS FROM RISING QUITE AS
HIGH AS THOSE TO THE NORTH. UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S WILL BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION...STUCK WITH THE MENTION OF RAIN SHOWERS
ONLY.

THE MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LEE SIDE OF THE
TROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. SHORT RANGE MODELS
ARE ALL STILL IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE EXTENT OF MOISTURE
FROM THIS WAVE WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...EXPANDING
ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN KY BY AFTERNOON TOMORROW. GIVEN THE DAYTIME
INSTABILITY...AND CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE WAVE ENERGY...INCLUDED
MENTION OF THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE...SPREADING FROM THE SOUTHERN CWA NW/WARD
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND ENGULFING MUCH OF THE STATE BY TOMORROW. THE
CLOUD COVER IN ADDITION TO RAIN CHANCES WILL ACTUALLY WORK TO
REGULATE THE HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW. THE NORTHERN CWA WILL BE THE
WARMEST...AS THEY ARE EXPECTED TO SUCCUMB TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE
CLOUDS AND RAIN LAST. HOWEVER...THE HIGHER TERRAIN COULD SEE WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ONCE MORE...IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...CONTINUED WITH THE IDEA FOR A GOOD RIDGE
VALLEY SPLIT UNDER VERY LIGHT SERLY WINDS. THESE LIGHT WINDS AND AN
EXPECTED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WITH THE SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE...COULD
BRING THE RETURN OF FOG TO THE VALLEY LOCATIONS ONCE MORE...THOUGH
INCOMING CLOUDS WILL PREVENT IT FROM BECOMING DENSE AND WIDESPREAD.
CONTINUED WITH PATCHY WORDING FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE AND TROUGH
STAYING IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MODELS START OUT
ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA
AS SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPS OUT OF CANADA AND STARTS DIGGING AN
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES TOWARD
THE AREA IT WILL ERODE THE MID LEVEL CAPPING THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT.
WITH THE CAP GONE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
TO BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA FROM FRIDAY NIGHT TROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. BY SUNDAY
EVENING THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL HAVE MOVED TO EAST OF THE AREA
AND WILL THROTTLE THE CONVECTION. AS THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES TO THE
EAST ON MONDAY THE HEIGHTS OF THE REMAINING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE
RISING AND A UPPER LOW WILL BE TRYING BREAK OFF AND DIG TO THE
SOUTH. BY TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH AND THE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL START TO WEAKEN. THIS WILL ALLOW A
SHORT WAVE TO DROP INTO THE CENTRAL US AND START TO PUSH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL OHIO...STILL WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
KEEP THINGS FAIRLY DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS THROUGH MONDAY AND
THEN SUMMER TEMPERATURES RETURN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WENT WITH
THE MODEL BLEND WITH SOME BIAS CORRECTIONS APPLIED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 708 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

ONCE FOG BURNS OFF AT KSME...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BULK
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR THE TAF SITES. EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE
TONIGHT WHEN THE VALLEY SITES ARE EXPECTED TO SEE ANOTHER BOUT OF
POTENTIAL MVFR CONDITIONS FROM FOG...WHILE THE RIDGES MAY DIP DOWN
FOR AN HOUR OR SO. CANNOT RULE OUT LOWER VSBY AND CIGS FOR A TIME
CLOSER TO DAWN AT KSME DUE TO LIGHT BUT PREDOMINATE SW FLOW...AS WAS
THE CASE THIS MORNING. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. VFR CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AT
KSME AND KLOZ AHEAD OF RAIN SHOWER POTENTIAL POISED TO IMPACT FAR SE
KENTUCKY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
ISOLATED AND WILL POTENTIALLY NEAR THE TAF SITES SO LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD THAT UNCERTAINTY WARRANTED IT NOT BEING INCLUDED IN
THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...JMW







000
FXUS63 KJKL 310834
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
434 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

CENTER OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ROTATE AROUND SOUTHERN
JAMES BAY DURING THE DAY TODAY AS IT REMAINS BLOCKED BETWEEN TWO
STRONG RIDGES...ONE ACROSS THE SW CONUS...AND ONE OFF THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC COAST. UNLIKE PREVIOUS DAYS WHERE THE STRONG PULL OF
NORTHERLY AIR BROUGHT WITH IT UNSEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S...BY TODAY MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WRLY...AND
THEN EVENTUALLY MORE SWRLY. THIS WILL BEGIN PULLING IN WARMER TEMPS
FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH.

IN ADDITION...THE NORTHERN CWA SHOULD EXPECT TO FIND ITSELF UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NO MID LEVEL WAVES MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE RESULT WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND GOOD RADIATIONAL HEATING...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PULLING
BACK UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S...JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THEN
FOR THE SOUTHERN CWA...A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT STORY IS EXPECTED. A
SMALL WAVE OF MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL PASS NEAR THE STALLED SURFACE
BOUNDARY ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TODAY...BRINGING A FOCUSED
CENTER OF PRECIP TO GA AND SC BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS PRECIP MAY
SPREAD FAR ENOUGH INTO OUR REGION UNDER THE SW FLOW LATE IN THE DAY
THAT A FEW ISOLATED POPS ALONG THE TN/VA BORDER WERE WARRANTED. IT
WILL ALSO CREATE AN INCREASE IN CIGS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...PREVENTING TEMPS FROM RISING QUITE AS
HIGH AS THOSE TO THE NORTH. UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S WILL BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION...STUCK WITH THE MENTION OF RAIN SHOWERS
ONLY.

THE MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LEE SIDE OF THE
TROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. SHORT RANGE MODELS
ARE ALL STILL IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE EXTENT OF MOISTURE
FROM THIS WAVE WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...EXPANDING
ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN KY BY AFTERNOON TOMORROW. GIVEN THE DAYTIME
INSTABILITY...AND CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE WAVE ENEREGY...INCLUDED
MENTION OF THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE...SPREADING FROM THE SOUTHERN CWA NW/WARD
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND ENGULFING MUCH OF THE STATE BY TOMORROW. THE
CLOUD COVER IN ADDITION TO RAIN CHANCES WILL ACTUALLY WORK TO
REGULATE THE HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW. THE NORTHERN CWA WILL BE THE
WARMEST...AS THEY ARE EXPECTED TO SUCCUMB TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE
CLOUDS AND RAIN LAST. HOWEVER...THE HIGHER TERRAIN COULD SEE WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ONCE MORE...IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...CONTINUED WITH THE IDEA FOR A GOOD RIDGE
VALLEY SPLIT UNDER VERY LIGHT SERLY WINDS. THESE LIGHT WINDS AND AN
EXPECTED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WITH THE SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE...COULD
BRING THE RETURN OF FOG TO THE VALLEY LOCATIONS ONCE MORE...THOUGH
INCOMING CLOUDS WILL PREVENT IT FROM BECOMING DENSE AND WIDESPREAD.
CONTINUED WITH PATCHY WORDING FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE AND TROUGH
STAYING IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MODELS START OUT
ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA
AS SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPS OUT OF CANADA AND STARTS DIGGING AN
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES TOWARD
THE AREA IT WILL ERODE THE MID LEVEL CAPPING THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT.
WITH THE CAP GONE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
TO BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA FROM FRIDAY NIGHT TROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. BY SUNDAY
EVENING THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL HAVE MOVED TO EAST OF THE AREA
AND WILL THROTTLE THE CONVECTION. AS THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES TO THE
EAST ON MONDAY THE HEIGHTS OF THE REMAINING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE
RISING AND A UPPER LOW WILL BE TRYING BREAK OFF AND DIG TO THE
SOUTH. BY TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH AND THE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL START TO WEAKEN. THIS WILL ALLOW A
SHORT WAVE TO DROP INTO THE CENTRAL US AND START TO PUSH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL OHIO...STILL WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
KEEP THINGS FAIRLY DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS THROUGH MONDAY AND
THEN SUMMER TEMPERATURES RETURN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WENT WITH
THE MODEL BLEND WITH SOME BIAS CORRECTIONS APPLIED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 210 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BULK OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE TONIGHT WHEN THE VALLEY SITES ARE EXPECTED TO
SEE A BOUT OF MVFR CONDITIONS FROM FOG...WHILE THE RIDGES MAY DIP
DOWN THERE FOR AN HOUR OR SO. CANNOT RULE OUT LOWER VSBY AND CIGS FOR
A TIME CLOSER TO DAWN AT KSME AND DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS. ANY FOG
THAT MANAGES TO FORM WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE... RESUMING
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN
TOMORROW NIGHT AHEAD OF SOME RAIN SHOWER POTENTIAL ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...VFR CONDITIONS AND CIG HEIGHT SHOULD CHANGE VERY
LITTLE...SO NO EXTRA LINE WAS NEEDED IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...JMW







000
FXUS63 KJKL 310834
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
434 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

CENTER OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ROTATE AROUND SOUTHERN
JAMES BAY DURING THE DAY TODAY AS IT REMAINS BLOCKED BETWEEN TWO
STRONG RIDGES...ONE ACROSS THE SW CONUS...AND ONE OFF THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC COAST. UNLIKE PREVIOUS DAYS WHERE THE STRONG PULL OF
NORTHERLY AIR BROUGHT WITH IT UNSEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S...BY TODAY MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WRLY...AND
THEN EVENTUALLY MORE SWRLY. THIS WILL BEGIN PULLING IN WARMER TEMPS
FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH.

IN ADDITION...THE NORTHERN CWA SHOULD EXPECT TO FIND ITSELF UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NO MID LEVEL WAVES MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE RESULT WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND GOOD RADIATIONAL HEATING...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PULLING
BACK UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S...JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THEN
FOR THE SOUTHERN CWA...A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT STORY IS EXPECTED. A
SMALL WAVE OF MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL PASS NEAR THE STALLED SURFACE
BOUNDARY ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TODAY...BRINGING A FOCUSED
CENTER OF PRECIP TO GA AND SC BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS PRECIP MAY
SPREAD FAR ENOUGH INTO OUR REGION UNDER THE SW FLOW LATE IN THE DAY
THAT A FEW ISOLATED POPS ALONG THE TN/VA BORDER WERE WARRANTED. IT
WILL ALSO CREATE AN INCREASE IN CIGS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...PREVENTING TEMPS FROM RISING QUITE AS
HIGH AS THOSE TO THE NORTH. UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S WILL BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION...STUCK WITH THE MENTION OF RAIN SHOWERS
ONLY.

THE MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LEE SIDE OF THE
TROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. SHORT RANGE MODELS
ARE ALL STILL IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE EXTENT OF MOISTURE
FROM THIS WAVE WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...EXPANDING
ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN KY BY AFTERNOON TOMORROW. GIVEN THE DAYTIME
INSTABILITY...AND CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE WAVE ENEREGY...INCLUDED
MENTION OF THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE...SPREADING FROM THE SOUTHERN CWA NW/WARD
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND ENGULFING MUCH OF THE STATE BY TOMORROW. THE
CLOUD COVER IN ADDITION TO RAIN CHANCES WILL ACTUALLY WORK TO
REGULATE THE HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW. THE NORTHERN CWA WILL BE THE
WARMEST...AS THEY ARE EXPECTED TO SUCCUMB TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE
CLOUDS AND RAIN LAST. HOWEVER...THE HIGHER TERRAIN COULD SEE WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ONCE MORE...IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...CONTINUED WITH THE IDEA FOR A GOOD RIDGE
VALLEY SPLIT UNDER VERY LIGHT SERLY WINDS. THESE LIGHT WINDS AND AN
EXPECTED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WITH THE SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE...COULD
BRING THE RETURN OF FOG TO THE VALLEY LOCATIONS ONCE MORE...THOUGH
INCOMING CLOUDS WILL PREVENT IT FROM BECOMING DENSE AND WIDESPREAD.
CONTINUED WITH PATCHY WORDING FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE AND TROUGH
STAYING IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MODELS START OUT
ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA
AS SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPS OUT OF CANADA AND STARTS DIGGING AN
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES TOWARD
THE AREA IT WILL ERODE THE MID LEVEL CAPPING THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT.
WITH THE CAP GONE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
TO BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA FROM FRIDAY NIGHT TROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. BY SUNDAY
EVENING THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL HAVE MOVED TO EAST OF THE AREA
AND WILL THROTTLE THE CONVECTION. AS THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES TO THE
EAST ON MONDAY THE HEIGHTS OF THE REMAINING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE
RISING AND A UPPER LOW WILL BE TRYING BREAK OFF AND DIG TO THE
SOUTH. BY TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH AND THE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL START TO WEAKEN. THIS WILL ALLOW A
SHORT WAVE TO DROP INTO THE CENTRAL US AND START TO PUSH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL OHIO...STILL WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
KEEP THINGS FAIRLY DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS THROUGH MONDAY AND
THEN SUMMER TEMPERATURES RETURN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WENT WITH
THE MODEL BLEND WITH SOME BIAS CORRECTIONS APPLIED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 210 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BULK OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE TONIGHT WHEN THE VALLEY SITES ARE EXPECTED TO
SEE A BOUT OF MVFR CONDITIONS FROM FOG...WHILE THE RIDGES MAY DIP
DOWN THERE FOR AN HOUR OR SO. CANNOT RULE OUT LOWER VSBY AND CIGS FOR
A TIME CLOSER TO DAWN AT KSME AND DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS. ANY FOG
THAT MANAGES TO FORM WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE... RESUMING
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN
TOMORROW NIGHT AHEAD OF SOME RAIN SHOWER POTENTIAL ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...VFR CONDITIONS AND CIG HEIGHT SHOULD CHANGE VERY
LITTLE...SO NO EXTRA LINE WAS NEEDED IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...JMW








000
FXUS63 KJKL 310707
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
307 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE AND TROUGH
STAYING IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MODELS START OUT
ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA
AS SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPS OUT OF CANADA AND STARTS DIGGING AN
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES TOWARD
THE AREA IT WILL ERODE THE MID LEVEL CAPPING THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT.
WITH THE CAP GONE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
TO BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA FROM FRIDAY NIGHT TROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. BY SUNDAY
EVENING THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL HAVE MOVED TO EAST OF THE AREA
AND WILL THROTTLE THE CONVECTION. AS THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES TO THE
EAST ON MONDAY THE HEIGHTS OF THE REMAINING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE
RISING AND A UPPER LOW WILL BE TRYING BREAK OFF AND DIG TO THE
SOUTH. BY TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH AND THE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL START TO WEAKEN. THIS WILL ALLOW A
SHORT WAVE TO DROP INTO THE CENTRAL US AND START TO PUSH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL OHIO...STILL WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
KEEP THINGS FAIRLY DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS THROUGH MONDAY AND
THEN SUMMER TEMPERATURES RETURN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WENT WITH
THE MODEL BLEND WITH SOME BIAS CORRECTIONS APPLIED.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 210 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BULK OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE TONIGHT WHEN THE VALLEY SITES ARE EXPECTED TO
SEE A BOUT OF MVFR CONDITIONS FROM FOG...WHILE THE RIDGES MAY DIP
DOWN THERE FOR AN HOUR OR SO. CANNOT RULE OUT LOWER VSBY AND CIGS FOR
A TIME CLOSER TO DAWN AT KSME AND DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS. ANY FOG
THAT MANAGES TO FORM WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE... RESUMING
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN
TOMORROW NIGHT AHEAD OF SOME RAIN SHOWER POTENTIAL ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...VFR CONDITIONS AND CIG HEIGHT SHOULD CHANGE VERY
LITTLE...SO NO EXTRA LINE WAS NEEDED IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...JMW








000
FXUS63 KJKL 310707
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
307 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE AND TROUGH
STAYING IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MODELS START OUT
ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA
AS SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPS OUT OF CANADA AND STARTS DIGGING AN
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES TOWARD
THE AREA IT WILL ERODE THE MID LEVEL CAPPING THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT.
WITH THE CAP GONE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
TO BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA FROM FRIDAY NIGHT TROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. BY SUNDAY
EVENING THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL HAVE MOVED TO EAST OF THE AREA
AND WILL THROTTLE THE CONVECTION. AS THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES TO THE
EAST ON MONDAY THE HEIGHTS OF THE REMAINING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE
RISING AND A UPPER LOW WILL BE TRYING BREAK OFF AND DIG TO THE
SOUTH. BY TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH AND THE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL START TO WEAKEN. THIS WILL ALLOW A
SHORT WAVE TO DROP INTO THE CENTRAL US AND START TO PUSH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL OHIO...STILL WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
KEEP THINGS FAIRLY DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS THROUGH MONDAY AND
THEN SUMMER TEMPERATURES RETURN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WENT WITH
THE MODEL BLEND WITH SOME BIAS CORRECTIONS APPLIED.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 210 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BULK OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE TONIGHT WHEN THE VALLEY SITES ARE EXPECTED TO
SEE A BOUT OF MVFR CONDITIONS FROM FOG...WHILE THE RIDGES MAY DIP
DOWN THERE FOR AN HOUR OR SO. CANNOT RULE OUT LOWER VSBY AND CIGS FOR
A TIME CLOSER TO DAWN AT KSME AND DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS. ANY FOG
THAT MANAGES TO FORM WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE... RESUMING
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN
TOMORROW NIGHT AHEAD OF SOME RAIN SHOWER POTENTIAL ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...VFR CONDITIONS AND CIG HEIGHT SHOULD CHANGE VERY
LITTLE...SO NO EXTRA LINE WAS NEEDED IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...JMW







000
FXUS63 KJKL 310611
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
211 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

CLOUDS IN THE EAST ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE...SFC COLD FRONT IS
HELPING TO KEEP TEMPS UP JUST A BIT IN OUR EASTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS.
BUT ONCE SKIES BEGIN TO PARTIALLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT TEMPS SHOULD
RESPOND ACCORDINGLY AND BEGIN THEIR DIURNAL DROP IN ERNST. HOWEVER...
DID BUMP TEMPS UP JUST A DEGREE OR TWO IN THESE AREAS TO REFLECT THE
SHORTER PERIOD OF OVERNIGHT COOLING. ALSO PICKING UP A COUPLE OF
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ON RADAR WHICH HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE
FOR A HANDFUL OF SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING. BUT HAVE YET TO SEE ANY
THUNDER IN OUR CWA. CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD SO REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER
FROM THE FORECAST PACKAGE. OTHERWISE...UPDATED GRIDS FOR LATEST
HOURLY TRENDS AND FRESHENED UP THE HWO ALONG WITH A MENTION OF SOME
LOCALLY DENSE FOG...MAINLY IN THE RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS LEADING UP
TO SUNRISE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 905 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

FORECAST ON TRACK THIS EVENING. DISTURBANCE....SFC COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTHEAST IS KICKING OFF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRAY THUNDERSTORM WHICH
THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS HANDLED WELL. UPDATED TEMP...DEW POINT...
POP GRIDS FOR LATEST HOURLY TRENDS AND THOUGHTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS SINKING SOUTH
THROUGH OHIO AND AHEAD OF THIS AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAS DEVELOPED. OVER NORTHEAST PARTS OF KENTUCKY...A FEW SPRINKLES
AND STRAY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF THE LARGER CLUSTER
OF CONVECTION FURTHER NORTH. ON SATELLITE...THE CU OVER THE AREA ARE
MOSTLY SMALL AND OF A FAIR WEATHER VARIETY WHILE TO THE NORTH THEY
HAVE BETTER DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
BUILDING CONVECTION. THESE CLOUDS DID LITTLE TO HINDER THE
TEMPERATURE RISE TODAY FROM CHILLY LATE JULY LOWS IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 50S. READINGS REACHED INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S FOR MOST
OF EAST KENTUCKY BY MID AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE
HOLDING IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
REPORTED FOR THE MOST PART...THOUGH A FEW WEST TO NORTHWEST GUSTS UP
TO 15 KTS HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS THE NORTH SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE GYRATIONS OF THE DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS BROAD LOW
COVERS MORE THAN HALF THE NATION WITH ITS CORE EXTENDING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE SHORTWAVES SPINNING AROUND THIS CENTER WILL
PASS NORTH OF KENTUCKY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL
THEN TAKE A BREAK FROM AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT BATCH HEADS THIS WAY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE FOLLOWED DETAILS FROM THE HRRR AND
NAM12 MOST CLOSELY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM AMONGST THE SPRINKLES OVER NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
EVENING. THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 GUIDANCE STILL KEEP THE BULK OF
ANY ACTIVITY OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. HAVE FOLLOWED
THIS IDEA WITH THE POPS AND WEATHER THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...
SHOULD A MORE SUBSTANTIAL STORM MAKE IT IN HERE...OR DEVELOP...THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR HAIL DUE TO THE COOLER MID LEVELS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NEARBY UPPER LOW. ONCE THE MID LEVEL WAVES MOVE BY LATER
TONIGHT...THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CLEAR ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPING IN
THE VALLEYS TOWARDS DAWN. WENT WITH A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLIT FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND ALSO FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
A SIMILAR EXPECTATION FOR LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG. HOWEVER...OVER FAR
EAST KENTUCKY...THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
THURSDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THAT NEXT APPROACHING MID LEVEL WAVE.
ON THURSDAY...ANOTHER NICE DAY WILL BE HAD UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AS READING REACH THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S.

ONCE AGAIN USED THE CONSSHORT...AND ITS BC VERSION...AS A STARTING
POINT FOR THE T...TD...AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND
THE CONSALL SUITE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT TO
BETTER REFLECT THE EXPECTED RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLITS. AS FOR POPS...
ENDED UP ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...MOST SIMILAR TO THE MET NUMBERS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EARLY ON...THE TROUGH/S AXIS
WILL SHIFT TO OUR WEST AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SHORTWAVE...MOISTURE WILL GET PULLED
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WHILE THE
SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST...AN 850 MB TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE ALIGNED RIGHT OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A FOCUS TO SUPPLY SOLID CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
LEAVING A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT OVER OUR REGION. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND THE DEEPER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
GET SHUNTED OFF TO OUR EAST. WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FROM MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 210 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BULK OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE TONIGHT WHEN THE VALLEY SITES ARE EXPECTED TO
SEE A BOUT OF MVFR CONDITIONS FROM FOG...WHILE THE RIDGES MAY DIP
DOWN THERE FOR AN HOUR OR SO. CANNOT RULE OUT LOWER VSBY AND CIGS FOR
A TIME CLOSER TO DAWN AT KSME AND DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS. ANY FOG
THAT MANAGES TO FORM WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE... RESUMING
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN
TOMORROW NIGHT AHEAD OF SOME RAIN SHOWER POTENTIAL ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...VFR CONDITIONS AND CIG HEIGHT SHOULD CHANGE VERY
LITTLE...SO NO EXTRA LINE WAS NEEDED IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...JMW







000
FXUS63 KJKL 310611
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
211 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

CLOUDS IN THE EAST ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE...SFC COLD FRONT IS
HELPING TO KEEP TEMPS UP JUST A BIT IN OUR EASTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS.
BUT ONCE SKIES BEGIN TO PARTIALLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT TEMPS SHOULD
RESPOND ACCORDINGLY AND BEGIN THEIR DIURNAL DROP IN ERNST. HOWEVER...
DID BUMP TEMPS UP JUST A DEGREE OR TWO IN THESE AREAS TO REFLECT THE
SHORTER PERIOD OF OVERNIGHT COOLING. ALSO PICKING UP A COUPLE OF
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ON RADAR WHICH HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE
FOR A HANDFUL OF SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING. BUT HAVE YET TO SEE ANY
THUNDER IN OUR CWA. CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD SO REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER
FROM THE FORECAST PACKAGE. OTHERWISE...UPDATED GRIDS FOR LATEST
HOURLY TRENDS AND FRESHENED UP THE HWO ALONG WITH A MENTION OF SOME
LOCALLY DENSE FOG...MAINLY IN THE RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS LEADING UP
TO SUNRISE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 905 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

FORECAST ON TRACK THIS EVENING. DISTURBANCE....SFC COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTHEAST IS KICKING OFF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRAY THUNDERSTORM WHICH
THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS HANDLED WELL. UPDATED TEMP...DEW POINT...
POP GRIDS FOR LATEST HOURLY TRENDS AND THOUGHTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS SINKING SOUTH
THROUGH OHIO AND AHEAD OF THIS AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAS DEVELOPED. OVER NORTHEAST PARTS OF KENTUCKY...A FEW SPRINKLES
AND STRAY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF THE LARGER CLUSTER
OF CONVECTION FURTHER NORTH. ON SATELLITE...THE CU OVER THE AREA ARE
MOSTLY SMALL AND OF A FAIR WEATHER VARIETY WHILE TO THE NORTH THEY
HAVE BETTER DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
BUILDING CONVECTION. THESE CLOUDS DID LITTLE TO HINDER THE
TEMPERATURE RISE TODAY FROM CHILLY LATE JULY LOWS IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 50S. READINGS REACHED INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S FOR MOST
OF EAST KENTUCKY BY MID AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE
HOLDING IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
REPORTED FOR THE MOST PART...THOUGH A FEW WEST TO NORTHWEST GUSTS UP
TO 15 KTS HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS THE NORTH SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE GYRATIONS OF THE DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS BROAD LOW
COVERS MORE THAN HALF THE NATION WITH ITS CORE EXTENDING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE SHORTWAVES SPINNING AROUND THIS CENTER WILL
PASS NORTH OF KENTUCKY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL
THEN TAKE A BREAK FROM AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT BATCH HEADS THIS WAY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE FOLLOWED DETAILS FROM THE HRRR AND
NAM12 MOST CLOSELY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM AMONGST THE SPRINKLES OVER NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
EVENING. THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 GUIDANCE STILL KEEP THE BULK OF
ANY ACTIVITY OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. HAVE FOLLOWED
THIS IDEA WITH THE POPS AND WEATHER THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...
SHOULD A MORE SUBSTANTIAL STORM MAKE IT IN HERE...OR DEVELOP...THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR HAIL DUE TO THE COOLER MID LEVELS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NEARBY UPPER LOW. ONCE THE MID LEVEL WAVES MOVE BY LATER
TONIGHT...THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CLEAR ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPING IN
THE VALLEYS TOWARDS DAWN. WENT WITH A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLIT FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND ALSO FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
A SIMILAR EXPECTATION FOR LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG. HOWEVER...OVER FAR
EAST KENTUCKY...THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
THURSDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THAT NEXT APPROACHING MID LEVEL WAVE.
ON THURSDAY...ANOTHER NICE DAY WILL BE HAD UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AS READING REACH THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S.

ONCE AGAIN USED THE CONSSHORT...AND ITS BC VERSION...AS A STARTING
POINT FOR THE T...TD...AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND
THE CONSALL SUITE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT TO
BETTER REFLECT THE EXPECTED RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLITS. AS FOR POPS...
ENDED UP ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...MOST SIMILAR TO THE MET NUMBERS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EARLY ON...THE TROUGH/S AXIS
WILL SHIFT TO OUR WEST AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SHORTWAVE...MOISTURE WILL GET PULLED
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WHILE THE
SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST...AN 850 MB TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE ALIGNED RIGHT OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A FOCUS TO SUPPLY SOLID CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
LEAVING A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT OVER OUR REGION. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND THE DEEPER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
GET SHUNTED OFF TO OUR EAST. WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FROM MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 210 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BULK OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE TONIGHT WHEN THE VALLEY SITES ARE EXPECTED TO
SEE A BOUT OF MVFR CONDITIONS FROM FOG...WHILE THE RIDGES MAY DIP
DOWN THERE FOR AN HOUR OR SO. CANNOT RULE OUT LOWER VSBY AND CIGS FOR
A TIME CLOSER TO DAWN AT KSME AND DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS. ANY FOG
THAT MANAGES TO FORM WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE... RESUMING
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN
TOMORROW NIGHT AHEAD OF SOME RAIN SHOWER POTENTIAL ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...VFR CONDITIONS AND CIG HEIGHT SHOULD CHANGE VERY
LITTLE...SO NO EXTRA LINE WAS NEEDED IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...JMW








000
FXUS63 KJKL 310245
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1045 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

CLOUDS IN THE EAST ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE...SFC COLD FRONT IS
HELPING TO KEEP TEMPS UP JUST A BIT IN OUR EASTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS.
BUT ONCE SKIES BEGIN TO PARTIALLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT TEMPS SHOULD
RESPOND ACCORDINGLY AND BEGIN THEIR DIURNAL DROP IN ERNST. HOWEVER...
DID BUMP TEMPS UP JUST A DEGREE OR TWO IN THESE AREAS TO REFLECT THE
SHORTER PERIOD OF OVERNIGHT COOLING. ALSO PICKING UP A COUPLE OF
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ON RADAR WHICH HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE
FOR A HANDFUL OF SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING. BUT HAVE YET TO SEE ANY
THUNDER IN OUR CWA. CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD SO REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER
FROM THE FORECAST PACKAGE. OTHERWISE...UPDATED GRIDS FOR LATEST
HOURLY TRENDS AND FRESHENED UP THE HWO ALONG WITH A MENTION OF SOME
LOCALLY DENSE FOG...MAINLY IN THE RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS LEADING UP
TO SUNRISE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 905 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

FORECAST ON TRACK THIS EVENING. DISTURBANCE....SFC COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTHEAST IS KICKING OFF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRAY THUNDERSTORM WHICH
THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS HANDLED WELL. UPDATED TEMP...DEW POINT...
POP GRIDS FOR LATEST HOURLY TRENDS AND THOUGHTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS SINKING SOUTH
THROUGH OHIO AND AHEAD OF THIS AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAS DEVELOPED. OVER NORTHEAST PARTS OF KENTUCKY...A FEW SPRINKLES
AND STRAY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF THE LARGER CLUSTER
OF CONVECTION FURTHER NORTH. ON SATELLITE...THE CU OVER THE AREA ARE
MOSTLY SMALL AND OF A FAIR WEATHER VARIETY WHILE TO THE NORTH THEY
HAVE BETTER DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
BUILDING CONVECTION. THESE CLOUDS DID LITTLE TO HINDER THE
TEMPERATURE RISE TODAY FROM CHILLY LATE JULY LOWS IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 50S. READINGS REACHED INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S FOR MOST
OF EAST KENTUCKY BY MID AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE
HOLDING IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
REPORTED FOR THE MOST PART...THOUGH A FEW WEST TO NORTHWEST GUSTS UP
TO 15 KTS HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS THE NORTH SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE GYRATIONS OF THE DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS BROAD LOW
COVERS MORE THAN HALF THE NATION WITH ITS CORE EXTENDING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE SHORTWAVES SPINNING AROUND THIS CENTER WILL
PASS NORTH OF KENTUCKY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL
THEN TAKE A BREAK FROM AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT BATCH HEADS THIS WAY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE FOLLOWED DETAILS FROM THE HRRR AND
NAM12 MOST CLOSELY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM AMONGST THE SPRINKLES OVER NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
EVENING. THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 GUIDANCE STILL KEEP THE BULK OF
ANY ACTIVITY OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. HAVE FOLLOWED
THIS IDEA WITH THE POPS AND WEATHER THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...
SHOULD A MORE SUBSTANTIAL STORM MAKE IT IN HERE...OR DEVELOP...THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR HAIL DUE TO THE COOLER MID LEVELS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NEARBY UPPER LOW. ONCE THE MID LEVEL WAVES MOVE BY LATER
TONIGHT...THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CLEAR ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPING IN
THE VALLEYS TOWARDS DAWN. WENT WITH A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLIT FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND ALSO FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
A SIMILAR EXPECTATION FOR LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG. HOWEVER...OVER FAR
EAST KENTUCKY...THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
THURSDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THAT NEXT APPROACHING MID LEVEL WAVE.
ON THURSDAY...ANOTHER NICE DAY WILL BE HAD UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AS READING REACH THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S.

ONCE AGAIN USED THE CONSSHORT...AND ITS BC VERSION...AS A STARTING
POINT FOR THE T...TD...AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND
THE CONSALL SUITE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT TO
BETTER REFLECT THE EXPECTED RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLITS. AS FOR POPS...
ENDED UP ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...MOST SIMILAR TO THE MET NUMBERS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EARLY ON...THE TROUGH/S AXIS
WILL SHIFT TO OUR WEST AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SHORTWAVE...MOISTURE WILL GET PULLED
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WHILE THE
SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST...AN 850 MB TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE ALIGNED RIGHT OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A FOCUS TO SUPPLY SOLID CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
LEAVING A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT OVER OUR REGION. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND THE DEEPER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
GET SHUNTED OFF TO OUR EAST. WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FROM MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 905 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BULK OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE TONIGHT WHEN THE VALLEY SITES ARE EXPECTED TO
SEE A BOUT OF MVFR CONDITIONS FROM FOG...WHILE THE RIDGES MAY DIP
DOWN THERE FOR AN HOUR OR SO. CANNOT RULE OUT LOWER VSBY AND CIGS FOR
A TIME CLOSER TO DAWN AT KSME AND DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS. ANY FOG
THAT MANAGES TO FORM WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE... RESUMING
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...RAY








000
FXUS63 KJKL 310245
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1045 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

CLOUDS IN THE EAST ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE...SFC COLD FRONT IS
HELPING TO KEEP TEMPS UP JUST A BIT IN OUR EASTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS.
BUT ONCE SKIES BEGIN TO PARTIALLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT TEMPS SHOULD
RESPOND ACCORDINGLY AND BEGIN THEIR DIURNAL DROP IN ERNST. HOWEVER...
DID BUMP TEMPS UP JUST A DEGREE OR TWO IN THESE AREAS TO REFLECT THE
SHORTER PERIOD OF OVERNIGHT COOLING. ALSO PICKING UP A COUPLE OF
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ON RADAR WHICH HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE
FOR A HANDFUL OF SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING. BUT HAVE YET TO SEE ANY
THUNDER IN OUR CWA. CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD SO REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER
FROM THE FORECAST PACKAGE. OTHERWISE...UPDATED GRIDS FOR LATEST
HOURLY TRENDS AND FRESHENED UP THE HWO ALONG WITH A MENTION OF SOME
LOCALLY DENSE FOG...MAINLY IN THE RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS LEADING UP
TO SUNRISE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 905 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

FORECAST ON TRACK THIS EVENING. DISTURBANCE....SFC COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTHEAST IS KICKING OFF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRAY THUNDERSTORM WHICH
THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS HANDLED WELL. UPDATED TEMP...DEW POINT...
POP GRIDS FOR LATEST HOURLY TRENDS AND THOUGHTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS SINKING SOUTH
THROUGH OHIO AND AHEAD OF THIS AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAS DEVELOPED. OVER NORTHEAST PARTS OF KENTUCKY...A FEW SPRINKLES
AND STRAY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF THE LARGER CLUSTER
OF CONVECTION FURTHER NORTH. ON SATELLITE...THE CU OVER THE AREA ARE
MOSTLY SMALL AND OF A FAIR WEATHER VARIETY WHILE TO THE NORTH THEY
HAVE BETTER DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
BUILDING CONVECTION. THESE CLOUDS DID LITTLE TO HINDER THE
TEMPERATURE RISE TODAY FROM CHILLY LATE JULY LOWS IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 50S. READINGS REACHED INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S FOR MOST
OF EAST KENTUCKY BY MID AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE
HOLDING IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
REPORTED FOR THE MOST PART...THOUGH A FEW WEST TO NORTHWEST GUSTS UP
TO 15 KTS HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS THE NORTH SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE GYRATIONS OF THE DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS BROAD LOW
COVERS MORE THAN HALF THE NATION WITH ITS CORE EXTENDING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE SHORTWAVES SPINNING AROUND THIS CENTER WILL
PASS NORTH OF KENTUCKY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL
THEN TAKE A BREAK FROM AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT BATCH HEADS THIS WAY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE FOLLOWED DETAILS FROM THE HRRR AND
NAM12 MOST CLOSELY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM AMONGST THE SPRINKLES OVER NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
EVENING. THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 GUIDANCE STILL KEEP THE BULK OF
ANY ACTIVITY OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. HAVE FOLLOWED
THIS IDEA WITH THE POPS AND WEATHER THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...
SHOULD A MORE SUBSTANTIAL STORM MAKE IT IN HERE...OR DEVELOP...THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR HAIL DUE TO THE COOLER MID LEVELS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NEARBY UPPER LOW. ONCE THE MID LEVEL WAVES MOVE BY LATER
TONIGHT...THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CLEAR ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPING IN
THE VALLEYS TOWARDS DAWN. WENT WITH A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLIT FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND ALSO FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
A SIMILAR EXPECTATION FOR LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG. HOWEVER...OVER FAR
EAST KENTUCKY...THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
THURSDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THAT NEXT APPROACHING MID LEVEL WAVE.
ON THURSDAY...ANOTHER NICE DAY WILL BE HAD UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AS READING REACH THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S.

ONCE AGAIN USED THE CONSSHORT...AND ITS BC VERSION...AS A STARTING
POINT FOR THE T...TD...AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND
THE CONSALL SUITE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT TO
BETTER REFLECT THE EXPECTED RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLITS. AS FOR POPS...
ENDED UP ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...MOST SIMILAR TO THE MET NUMBERS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EARLY ON...THE TROUGH/S AXIS
WILL SHIFT TO OUR WEST AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SHORTWAVE...MOISTURE WILL GET PULLED
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WHILE THE
SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST...AN 850 MB TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE ALIGNED RIGHT OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A FOCUS TO SUPPLY SOLID CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
LEAVING A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT OVER OUR REGION. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND THE DEEPER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
GET SHUNTED OFF TO OUR EAST. WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FROM MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 905 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BULK OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE TONIGHT WHEN THE VALLEY SITES ARE EXPECTED TO
SEE A BOUT OF MVFR CONDITIONS FROM FOG...WHILE THE RIDGES MAY DIP
DOWN THERE FOR AN HOUR OR SO. CANNOT RULE OUT LOWER VSBY AND CIGS FOR
A TIME CLOSER TO DAWN AT KSME AND DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS. ANY FOG
THAT MANAGES TO FORM WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE... RESUMING
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...RAY







000
FXUS63 KJKL 310105
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
905 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 905 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

FORECAST ON TRACK THIS EVENING. DISTURBANCE....SFC COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTHEAST IS KICKING OFF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRAY THUNDERSTORM WHICH
THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS HANDLED WELL. UPDATED TEMP...DEW POINT...
POP GRIDS FOR LATEST HOURLY TRENDS AND THOUGHTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS SINKING SOUTH
THROUGH OHIO AND AHEAD OF THIS AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAS DEVELOPED. OVER NORTHEAST PARTS OF KENTUCKY...A FEW SPRINKLES
AND STRAY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF THE LARGER CLUSTER
OF CONVECTION FURTHER NORTH. ON SATELLITE...THE CU OVER THE AREA ARE
MOSTLY SMALL AND OF A FAIR WEATHER VARIETY WHILE TO THE NORTH THEY
HAVE BETTER DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
BUILDING CONVECTION. THESE CLOUDS DID LITTLE TO HINDER THE
TEMPERATURE RISE TODAY FROM CHILLY LATE JULY LOWS IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 50S. READINGS REACHED INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S FOR MOST
OF EAST KENTUCKY BY MID AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE
HOLDING IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
REPORTED FOR THE MOST PART...THOUGH A FEW WEST TO NORTHWEST GUSTS UP
TO 15 KTS HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS THE NORTH SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE GYRATIONS OF THE DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS BROAD LOW
COVERS MORE THAN HALF THE NATION WITH ITS CORE EXTENDING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE SHORTWAVES SPINNING AROUND THIS CENTER WILL
PASS NORTH OF KENTUCKY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL
THEN TAKE A BREAK FROM AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT BATCH HEADS THIS WAY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE FOLLOWED DETAILS FROM THE HRRR AND
NAM12 MOST CLOSELY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM AMONGST THE SPRINKLES OVER NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
EVENING. THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 GUIDANCE STILL KEEP THE BULK OF
ANY ACTIVITY OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. HAVE FOLLOWED
THIS IDEA WITH THE POPS AND WEATHER THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...
SHOULD A MORE SUBSTANTIAL STORM MAKE IT IN HERE...OR DEVELOP...THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR HAIL DUE TO THE COOLER MID LEVELS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NEARBY UPPER LOW. ONCE THE MID LEVEL WAVES MOVE BY LATER
TONIGHT...THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CLEAR ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPING IN
THE VALLEYS TOWARDS DAWN. WENT WITH A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLIT FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND ALSO FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
A SIMILAR EXPECTATION FOR LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG. HOWEVER...OVER FAR
EAST KENTUCKY...THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
THURSDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THAT NEXT APPROACHING MID LEVEL WAVE.
ON THURSDAY...ANOTHER NICE DAY WILL BE HAD UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AS READING REACH THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S.

ONCE AGAIN USED THE CONSSHORT...AND ITS BC VERSION...AS A STARTING
POINT FOR THE T...TD...AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND
THE CONSALL SUITE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT TO
BETTER REFLECT THE EXPECTED RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLITS. AS FOR POPS...
ENDED UP ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...MOST SIMILAR TO THE MET NUMBERS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EARLY ON...THE TROUGH/S AXIS
WILL SHIFT TO OUR WEST AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SHORTWAVE...MOISTURE WILL GET PULLED
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WHILE THE
SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST...AN 850 MB TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE ALIGNED RIGHT OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A FOCUS TO SUPPLY SOLID CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
LEAVING A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT OVER OUR REGION. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND THE DEEPER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
GET SHUNTED OFF TO OUR EAST. WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FROM MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 905 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BULK OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE TONIGHT WHEN THE VALLEY SITES ARE EXPECTED TO
SEE A BOUT OF MVFR CONDITIONS FROM FOG...WHILE THE RIDGES MAY DIP
DOWN THERE FOR AN HOUR OR SO. CANNOT RULE OUT LOWER VSBY AND CIGS FOR
A TIME CLOSER TO DAWN AT KSME AND DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS. ANY FOG
THAT MANAGES TO FORM WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE... RESUMING
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...RAY






000
FXUS63 KJKL 310105
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
905 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 905 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

FORECAST ON TRACK THIS EVENING. DISTURBANCE....SFC COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTHEAST IS KICKING OFF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRAY THUNDERSTORM WHICH
THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS HANDLED WELL. UPDATED TEMP...DEW POINT...
POP GRIDS FOR LATEST HOURLY TRENDS AND THOUGHTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS SINKING SOUTH
THROUGH OHIO AND AHEAD OF THIS AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAS DEVELOPED. OVER NORTHEAST PARTS OF KENTUCKY...A FEW SPRINKLES
AND STRAY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF THE LARGER CLUSTER
OF CONVECTION FURTHER NORTH. ON SATELLITE...THE CU OVER THE AREA ARE
MOSTLY SMALL AND OF A FAIR WEATHER VARIETY WHILE TO THE NORTH THEY
HAVE BETTER DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
BUILDING CONVECTION. THESE CLOUDS DID LITTLE TO HINDER THE
TEMPERATURE RISE TODAY FROM CHILLY LATE JULY LOWS IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 50S. READINGS REACHED INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S FOR MOST
OF EAST KENTUCKY BY MID AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE
HOLDING IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
REPORTED FOR THE MOST PART...THOUGH A FEW WEST TO NORTHWEST GUSTS UP
TO 15 KTS HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS THE NORTH SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE GYRATIONS OF THE DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS BROAD LOW
COVERS MORE THAN HALF THE NATION WITH ITS CORE EXTENDING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE SHORTWAVES SPINNING AROUND THIS CENTER WILL
PASS NORTH OF KENTUCKY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL
THEN TAKE A BREAK FROM AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT BATCH HEADS THIS WAY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE FOLLOWED DETAILS FROM THE HRRR AND
NAM12 MOST CLOSELY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM AMONGST THE SPRINKLES OVER NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
EVENING. THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 GUIDANCE STILL KEEP THE BULK OF
ANY ACTIVITY OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. HAVE FOLLOWED
THIS IDEA WITH THE POPS AND WEATHER THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...
SHOULD A MORE SUBSTANTIAL STORM MAKE IT IN HERE...OR DEVELOP...THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR HAIL DUE TO THE COOLER MID LEVELS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NEARBY UPPER LOW. ONCE THE MID LEVEL WAVES MOVE BY LATER
TONIGHT...THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CLEAR ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPING IN
THE VALLEYS TOWARDS DAWN. WENT WITH A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLIT FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND ALSO FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
A SIMILAR EXPECTATION FOR LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG. HOWEVER...OVER FAR
EAST KENTUCKY...THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
THURSDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THAT NEXT APPROACHING MID LEVEL WAVE.
ON THURSDAY...ANOTHER NICE DAY WILL BE HAD UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AS READING REACH THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S.

ONCE AGAIN USED THE CONSSHORT...AND ITS BC VERSION...AS A STARTING
POINT FOR THE T...TD...AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND
THE CONSALL SUITE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT TO
BETTER REFLECT THE EXPECTED RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLITS. AS FOR POPS...
ENDED UP ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...MOST SIMILAR TO THE MET NUMBERS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EARLY ON...THE TROUGH/S AXIS
WILL SHIFT TO OUR WEST AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SHORTWAVE...MOISTURE WILL GET PULLED
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WHILE THE
SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST...AN 850 MB TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE ALIGNED RIGHT OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A FOCUS TO SUPPLY SOLID CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
LEAVING A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT OVER OUR REGION. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND THE DEEPER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
GET SHUNTED OFF TO OUR EAST. WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FROM MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 905 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BULK OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE TONIGHT WHEN THE VALLEY SITES ARE EXPECTED TO
SEE A BOUT OF MVFR CONDITIONS FROM FOG...WHILE THE RIDGES MAY DIP
DOWN THERE FOR AN HOUR OR SO. CANNOT RULE OUT LOWER VSBY AND CIGS FOR
A TIME CLOSER TO DAWN AT KSME AND DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS. ANY FOG
THAT MANAGES TO FORM WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE... RESUMING
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...RAY







000
FXUS63 KJKL 301950 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
350 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS
EAST KENTUCKY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS SINKING SOUTH THROUGH OHIO
AND AHEAD OF THIS AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED. OVER NORTHEAST PARTS OF KENTUCKY...A FEW SPRINKLES AND
STRAY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE LARGER CLUSTER OF
CONVECTION FURTHER NORTH. ON SATELLITE...THE CU OVER THE AREA ARE
MOSTLY SMALL AND OF A FAIR WEATHER VARIETY WHILE TO THE NORTH THEY
HAVE BETTER DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
BUILDING CONVECTION. THESE CLOUDS DID LITTLE TO HINDER THE
TEMPERATURE RISE TODAY FROM CHILLY LATE JULY LOWS IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 50S. READINGS REACHED INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S FOR MOST
OF EAST KENTUCKY BY MID AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE
HOLDING IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
REPORTED FOR THE MOST PART...THOUGH A FEW WEST TO NORTHWEST GUSTS TO
15 KTS HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS THE NORTH SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE GYRATIONS OF THE DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS BROAD LOW
COVERS MORE THAN HALF THE NATION WITH ITS CORE EXTENDING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE SHORTWAVES SPINNING AROUND THIS CENTER WILL PASS
NORTHWEST OF KENTUCKY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL
THEN TAKE A BREAK FROM AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT BATCH HEADS THIS WAY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE FOLLOWED DETAILS FROM THE HRRR AND
NAM12 MOST CLOSELY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM AMONGST THE SPRINKLES OVER NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
EVENING. THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 GUIDANCE STILL KEEP THE BULK OF
ANY ACTIVITY OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. HAVE FOLLOWED
THIS IDEA WITH THE POPS AND WEATHER THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...
SHOULD A MORE SUBSTANTIAL STORM MAKE IT IN HERE OR DEVELOP...THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR HAIL DUE TO THE COOLER MID LEVELS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NEARBY UPPER LOW. ONCE THE MID LEVEL WAVES MOVE BY LATER
TONIGHT THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CLEAR ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPING IN
THE VALLEYS TOWARDS DAWN. WENT WITH A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLIT FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND ALSO FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
SIMILAR EXPECTATION FOR LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG. OVER FAR EAST
KENTUCKY...THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THURSDAY
NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THAT NEXT MID LEVEL WAVE. ON THURSDAY...ANOTHER
NICE DAY WILL BE HAD UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS AS READING REACH THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

ONCE AGAIN USED THE CONSSHORT...AND ITS BC VERSION...AS A STARTING
POINT FOR THE T...TD...AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND
THE CONSALL SUITE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT TO
BETTER REFLECT THE EXPECTED RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLITS. AS FOR POPS...
ENDED UP ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY NIGHT SIMILAR TO THE MET NUMBERS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EARLY ON...THE TROUGH/S AXIS
WILL SHIFT TO OUR WEST AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SHORTWAVE...MOISTURE WILL GET PULLED
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WHILE THE
SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST...AN 850 MB TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE ALIGNED RIGHT OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A FOCUS TO SUPPLY SOLID CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
LEAVING A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT OVER OUR REGION. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND THE DEEPER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
GET SHUNTED OFF TO OUR EAST. WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FROM MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD UNDER
GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE TONIGHT WHEN THE
VALLEY SITES ARE EXPECTED TO SEE A BOUT OF MVFR CONDITIONS FROM
FOG...WHILE THE RIDGES MAY DIP DOWN THERE FOR AN HOUR OR SO. CANNOT
RULE OUT LOWER VIS AND LOW CIGS FOR A TIME AROUND DAWN IN THE
VALLEYS...BUT ANOTHER DAY OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD
HELP THE BOUNDARY LAYER DRY OUT ENOUGH TO PREVENT THAT. THE FOG
THAT MANAGES TO FORM WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...RESUMING
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GREIF





000
FXUS63 KJKL 301950 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
350 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS
EAST KENTUCKY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS SINKING SOUTH THROUGH OHIO
AND AHEAD OF THIS AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED. OVER NORTHEAST PARTS OF KENTUCKY...A FEW SPRINKLES AND
STRAY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE LARGER CLUSTER OF
CONVECTION FURTHER NORTH. ON SATELLITE...THE CU OVER THE AREA ARE
MOSTLY SMALL AND OF A FAIR WEATHER VARIETY WHILE TO THE NORTH THEY
HAVE BETTER DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
BUILDING CONVECTION. THESE CLOUDS DID LITTLE TO HINDER THE
TEMPERATURE RISE TODAY FROM CHILLY LATE JULY LOWS IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 50S. READINGS REACHED INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S FOR MOST
OF EAST KENTUCKY BY MID AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE
HOLDING IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
REPORTED FOR THE MOST PART...THOUGH A FEW WEST TO NORTHWEST GUSTS TO
15 KTS HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS THE NORTH SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE GYRATIONS OF THE DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS BROAD LOW
COVERS MORE THAN HALF THE NATION WITH ITS CORE EXTENDING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE SHORTWAVES SPINNING AROUND THIS CENTER WILL PASS
NORTHWEST OF KENTUCKY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL
THEN TAKE A BREAK FROM AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT BATCH HEADS THIS WAY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE FOLLOWED DETAILS FROM THE HRRR AND
NAM12 MOST CLOSELY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM AMONGST THE SPRINKLES OVER NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
EVENING. THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 GUIDANCE STILL KEEP THE BULK OF
ANY ACTIVITY OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. HAVE FOLLOWED
THIS IDEA WITH THE POPS AND WEATHER THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...
SHOULD A MORE SUBSTANTIAL STORM MAKE IT IN HERE OR DEVELOP...THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR HAIL DUE TO THE COOLER MID LEVELS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NEARBY UPPER LOW. ONCE THE MID LEVEL WAVES MOVE BY LATER
TONIGHT THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CLEAR ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPING IN
THE VALLEYS TOWARDS DAWN. WENT WITH A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLIT FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND ALSO FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
SIMILAR EXPECTATION FOR LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG. OVER FAR EAST
KENTUCKY...THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THURSDAY
NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THAT NEXT MID LEVEL WAVE. ON THURSDAY...ANOTHER
NICE DAY WILL BE HAD UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS AS READING REACH THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

ONCE AGAIN USED THE CONSSHORT...AND ITS BC VERSION...AS A STARTING
POINT FOR THE T...TD...AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND
THE CONSALL SUITE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT TO
BETTER REFLECT THE EXPECTED RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLITS. AS FOR POPS...
ENDED UP ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY NIGHT SIMILAR TO THE MET NUMBERS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EARLY ON...THE TROUGH/S AXIS
WILL SHIFT TO OUR WEST AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SHORTWAVE...MOISTURE WILL GET PULLED
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WHILE THE
SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST...AN 850 MB TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE ALIGNED RIGHT OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A FOCUS TO SUPPLY SOLID CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
LEAVING A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT OVER OUR REGION. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND THE DEEPER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
GET SHUNTED OFF TO OUR EAST. WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FROM MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD UNDER
GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE TONIGHT WHEN THE
VALLEY SITES ARE EXPECTED TO SEE A BOUT OF MVFR CONDITIONS FROM
FOG...WHILE THE RIDGES MAY DIP DOWN THERE FOR AN HOUR OR SO. CANNOT
RULE OUT LOWER VIS AND LOW CIGS FOR A TIME AROUND DAWN IN THE
VALLEYS...BUT ANOTHER DAY OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD
HELP THE BOUNDARY LAYER DRY OUT ENOUGH TO PREVENT THAT. THE FOG
THAT MANAGES TO FORM WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...RESUMING
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GREIF






000
FXUS63 KJKL 301825 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
225 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

DID AN UPDATE TO ADD IN A SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDER WITH THE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS
AND GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR/NAM12 THE AREA OF CONVECTION SHOULD STAY
MAINLY JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CWA...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH CONCERN
THAT IT COULD BRUSH US THAT IT HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE GRIDS...
ZONES...AND HWO. ALSO FINE TUNED TEMPERATURES PER THE LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS...GENERALLY RAISING THEM A COUPLE OF DEGREES. THE UPDATED TEXT
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED AND GRIDS SENT TO THE WEB AND NDFD SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1055 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER OVER
EAST KENTUCKY. EVEN SO...A FEW SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
ABLE TO MOVE OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA ALREADY THIS MORNING. THE
EARLY MORNING FOG HAS NOW BURNED OFF WITH JUST A SMATTERING OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS LEFT OVER THE AREA. MORNING LOWS WERE GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER 50S...THOUGH SOME UPPER 40S DID OCCUR WITH A 48 DEGREE READING
AT ISLAND CITY IN OWSLEY COUNTY AS THE COLD SPOT. JACKSON SET A
RECORD WITH 52 DEGREES...THANKS TO EARLY MORNING FOG SETTING IN AND
KNOCKING OFF ABOUT 3 DEGREES...AND LONDON TIED THEIRS AT 54. A GOOD
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD HELP SEND READINGS INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 70S BY LATE AFTERNOON. DO STILL ANTICIPATE A SMALL
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THUNDER
CANNOT BE RULED OUT FROM ANY SHOWER THAT MANAGES TO DEVELOP...BUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR THAT IS TOO LOW MENTION IN THE GRIDS OR ZONES...ATTM.
ALSO...UPDATED THE T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS...TRENDS...AND
CONSSHORT GUIDANCE. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
A FRESH SET OF ZONES WAS ISSUED...PRIMARILY TO REMOVE THE FOG.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 758 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO JIVE BETTER
WITH THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES HIGH PRESSURE ORIENTED FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS DOWN ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. UNSEASONABLY COOL
AIR IS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...WITH
THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY CURRENTLY REPORTING IN THE LOW
50S. ALOFT...CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS...
STEMMING FROM A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATING NEAR HUDSON BAY.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...ALLOWING FOR A THREAT
OF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. WILL MAINTAIN SOME
ISOLATED POPS AS WE HEAT UP MORE AT THE SURFACE TODAY...WHILE COOLER
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN PLACE. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH THE DEEPER VALLEYS
LIKELY DROPPING DOWN INTO THE LOW 50S ONCE AGAIN. RIDGES WILL BE A
BIT MILDER...WINDING UP IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

THURSDAY WILL FEATURE MILDER TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN
THE LOW 80S. A PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
WILL THREATEN FAR SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY WITH SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION...HOWEVER MOST OF THIS LOOKS TO STAY ON THE TENNESSEE
SIDE...AND WILL STICK WITH DRY WEATHER FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

LITTLE HAS CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. AMPLIFIED TROUGHING
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE BLOCKED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
STRONG RIDGING SITTING OVER THE SW CONUS AND OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. BY FRIDAY...EASTERN KY WILL FIND ITSELF ON THE LEEWARD SIDE
OF THE TROUGH...PUTTING MUCH OF THE APPALACHIAN REGION IN SW FLOW IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THOUGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL...THIS FLOW OF WARMER AIR FROM THE SOUTH WILL PULL TEMPS BACK
UP SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS DAYS...INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IT WILL ALSO CAUSE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE
HUMIDITY LEVELS AS WELL.

AS FOR THE PRECIP CONCERNS...THE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL KEEP A COLD
FRONT NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE GULF AND EASTERN SEABOARD.
THIS...IN ADDITION TO THE MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE DEEP SW-TO-NE
FLOW...WILL MAKE THIS REGION PRIME FOR ONGOING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE PREDOMINATELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION PULLING INTO KY TO SOME EXTENT EACH
DAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. USED THE LATEST NAM12 AND
GFS40 SOUNDINGS TO DETERMINE THE LIKELIHOOD OF THUNDER EACH DAY...AS
IS REFLECTED IN THE WX FORECAST.

THEN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BEGIN SINKING SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL
WORK TO INCREASE HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND...AS A
RESULT...DAMPEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY ALONG
THE TN AND VA BORDER...COVERAGE WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED. PRECIP
CHANCES SHOULD THEN FADE ALL TOGETHER FROM THE FORECAST BY MONDAY
NIGHT. ON THE FLIP SIDE...INCREASING HEIGHTS ALSO WILL DIRECTLY
CORRELATE TO INCREASING TEMPS. EXPECT MORE SEASONABLE MID TO UPPER
80S BY TUESDAY FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD UNDER
GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE TONIGHT WHEN THE
VALLEY SITES ARE EXPECTED TO SEE A BOUT OF MVFR CONDITIONS FROM
FOG...WHILE THE RIDGES MAY DIP DOWN THERE FOR AN HOUR OR SO. CANNOT
RULE OUT LOWER VIS AND LOW CIGS FOR A TIME AROUND DAWN IN THE
VALLEYS...BUT ANOTHER DAY OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD
HELP THE BOUNDARY LAYER DRY OUT ENOUGH TO PREVENT THAT. THE FOG
THAT MANAGES TO FORM WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...RESUMING
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GREIF








000
FXUS63 KJKL 301825 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
225 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

DID AN UPDATE TO ADD IN A SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDER WITH THE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS
AND GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR/NAM12 THE AREA OF CONVECTION SHOULD STAY
MAINLY JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CWA...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH CONCERN
THAT IT COULD BRUSH US THAT IT HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE GRIDS...
ZONES...AND HWO. ALSO FINE TUNED TEMPERATURES PER THE LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS...GENERALLY RAISING THEM A COUPLE OF DEGREES. THE UPDATED TEXT
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED AND GRIDS SENT TO THE WEB AND NDFD SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1055 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER OVER
EAST KENTUCKY. EVEN SO...A FEW SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
ABLE TO MOVE OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA ALREADY THIS MORNING. THE
EARLY MORNING FOG HAS NOW BURNED OFF WITH JUST A SMATTERING OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS LEFT OVER THE AREA. MORNING LOWS WERE GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER 50S...THOUGH SOME UPPER 40S DID OCCUR WITH A 48 DEGREE READING
AT ISLAND CITY IN OWSLEY COUNTY AS THE COLD SPOT. JACKSON SET A
RECORD WITH 52 DEGREES...THANKS TO EARLY MORNING FOG SETTING IN AND
KNOCKING OFF ABOUT 3 DEGREES...AND LONDON TIED THEIRS AT 54. A GOOD
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD HELP SEND READINGS INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 70S BY LATE AFTERNOON. DO STILL ANTICIPATE A SMALL
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THUNDER
CANNOT BE RULED OUT FROM ANY SHOWER THAT MANAGES TO DEVELOP...BUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR THAT IS TOO LOW MENTION IN THE GRIDS OR ZONES...ATTM.
ALSO...UPDATED THE T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS...TRENDS...AND
CONSSHORT GUIDANCE. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
A FRESH SET OF ZONES WAS ISSUED...PRIMARILY TO REMOVE THE FOG.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 758 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO JIVE BETTER
WITH THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES HIGH PRESSURE ORIENTED FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS DOWN ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. UNSEASONABLY COOL
AIR IS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...WITH
THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY CURRENTLY REPORTING IN THE LOW
50S. ALOFT...CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS...
STEMMING FROM A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATING NEAR HUDSON BAY.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...ALLOWING FOR A THREAT
OF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. WILL MAINTAIN SOME
ISOLATED POPS AS WE HEAT UP MORE AT THE SURFACE TODAY...WHILE COOLER
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN PLACE. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH THE DEEPER VALLEYS
LIKELY DROPPING DOWN INTO THE LOW 50S ONCE AGAIN. RIDGES WILL BE A
BIT MILDER...WINDING UP IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

THURSDAY WILL FEATURE MILDER TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN
THE LOW 80S. A PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
WILL THREATEN FAR SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY WITH SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION...HOWEVER MOST OF THIS LOOKS TO STAY ON THE TENNESSEE
SIDE...AND WILL STICK WITH DRY WEATHER FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

LITTLE HAS CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. AMPLIFIED TROUGHING
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE BLOCKED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
STRONG RIDGING SITTING OVER THE SW CONUS AND OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. BY FRIDAY...EASTERN KY WILL FIND ITSELF ON THE LEEWARD SIDE
OF THE TROUGH...PUTTING MUCH OF THE APPALACHIAN REGION IN SW FLOW IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THOUGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL...THIS FLOW OF WARMER AIR FROM THE SOUTH WILL PULL TEMPS BACK
UP SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS DAYS...INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IT WILL ALSO CAUSE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE
HUMIDITY LEVELS AS WELL.

AS FOR THE PRECIP CONCERNS...THE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL KEEP A COLD
FRONT NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE GULF AND EASTERN SEABOARD.
THIS...IN ADDITION TO THE MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE DEEP SW-TO-NE
FLOW...WILL MAKE THIS REGION PRIME FOR ONGOING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE PREDOMINATELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION PULLING INTO KY TO SOME EXTENT EACH
DAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. USED THE LATEST NAM12 AND
GFS40 SOUNDINGS TO DETERMINE THE LIKELIHOOD OF THUNDER EACH DAY...AS
IS REFLECTED IN THE WX FORECAST.

THEN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BEGIN SINKING SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL
WORK TO INCREASE HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND...AS A
RESULT...DAMPEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY ALONG
THE TN AND VA BORDER...COVERAGE WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED. PRECIP
CHANCES SHOULD THEN FADE ALL TOGETHER FROM THE FORECAST BY MONDAY
NIGHT. ON THE FLIP SIDE...INCREASING HEIGHTS ALSO WILL DIRECTLY
CORRELATE TO INCREASING TEMPS. EXPECT MORE SEASONABLE MID TO UPPER
80S BY TUESDAY FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD UNDER
GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE TONIGHT WHEN THE
VALLEY SITES ARE EXPECTED TO SEE A BOUT OF MVFR CONDITIONS FROM
FOG...WHILE THE RIDGES MAY DIP DOWN THERE FOR AN HOUR OR SO. CANNOT
RULE OUT LOWER VIS AND LOW CIGS FOR A TIME AROUND DAWN IN THE
VALLEYS...BUT ANOTHER DAY OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD
HELP THE BOUNDARY LAYER DRY OUT ENOUGH TO PREVENT THAT. THE FOG
THAT MANAGES TO FORM WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...RESUMING
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GREIF







000
FXUS63 KJKL 301455 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1055 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1055 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER OVER
EAST KENTUCKY. EVEN SO...A FEW SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
ABLE TO MOVE OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA ALREADY THIS MORNING. THE
EARLY MORNING FOG HAS NOW BURNED OFF WITH JUST A SMATTERING OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS LEFT OVER THE AREA. MORNING LOWS WERE GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER 50S...THOUGH SOME UPPER 40S DID OCCUR WITH A 48 DEGREE READING
AT ISLAND CITY IN OWSLEY COUNTY AS THE COLD SPOT. JACKSON SET A
RECORD WITH 52 DEGREES...THANKS TO EARLY MORNING FOG SETTING IN AND
KNOCKING OFF ABOUT 3 DEGREES...AND LONDON TIED THEIRS AT 54. A GOOD
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD HELP SEND READINGS INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 70S BY LATE AFTERNOON. DO STILL ANTICIPATE A SMALL
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THUNDER
CANNOT BE RULED OUT FROM ANY SHOWER THAT MANAGES TO DEVELOP...BUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR THAT IS TOO LOW MENTION IN THE GRIDS OR ZONES...ATTM.
ALSO...UPDATED THE T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS...TRENDS...AND
CONSSHORT GUIDANCE. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
A FRESH SET OF ZONES WAS ISSUED...PRIMARILY TO REMOVE THE FOG.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 758 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO JIVE BETTER
WITH THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES HIGH PRESSURE ORIENTED FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS DOWN ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. UNSEASONABLY COOL
AIR IS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...WITH
THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY CURRENTLY REPORTING IN THE LOW
50S. ALOFT...CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS...
STEMMING FROM A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATING NEAR HUDSON BAY.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...ALLOWING FOR A THREAT
OF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. WILL MAINTAIN SOME
ISOLATED POPS AS WE HEAT UP MORE AT THE SURFACE TODAY...WHILE COOLER
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN PLACE. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH THE DEEPER VALLEYS
LIKELY DROPPING DOWN INTO THE LOW 50S ONCE AGAIN. RIDGES WILL BE A
BIT MILDER...WINDING UP IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

THURSDAY WILL FEATURE MILDER TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN
THE LOW 80S. A PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
WILL THREATEN FAR SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY WITH SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION...HOWEVER MOST OF THIS LOOKS TO STAY ON THE TENNESSEE
SIDE...AND WILL STICK WITH DRY WEATHER FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

LITTLE HAS CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. AMPLIFIED TROUGHING
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE BLOCKED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
STRONG RIDGING SITTING OVER THE SW CONUS AND OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. BY FRIDAY...EASTERN KY WILL FIND ITSELF ON THE LEEWARD SIDE
OF THE TROUGH...PUTTING MUCH OF THE APPALACHIAN REGION IN SW FLOW IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THOUGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL...THIS FLOW OF WARMER AIR FROM THE SOUTH WILL PULL TEMPS BACK
UP SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS DAYS...INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IT WILL ALSO CAUSE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE
HUMIDITY LEVELS AS WELL.

AS FOR THE PRECIP CONCERNS...THE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL KEEP A COLD
FRONT NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE GULF AND EASTERN SEABOARD.
THIS...IN ADDITION TO THE MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE DEEP SW-TO-NE
FLOW...WILL MAKE THIS REGION PRIME FOR ONGOING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE PREDOMINATELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION PULLING INTO KY TO SOME EXTENT EACH
DAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. USED THE LATEST NAM12 AND
GFS40 SOUNDINGS TO DETERMINE THE LIKELIHOOD OF THUNDER EACH DAY...AS
IS REFLECTED IN THE WX FORECAST.

THEN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BEGIN SINKING SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL
WORK TO INCREASE HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND...AS A
RESULT...DAMPEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY ALONG
THE TN AND VA BORDER...COVERAGE WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED. PRECIP
CHANCES SHOULD THEN FADE ALL TOGETHER FROM THE FORECAST BY MONDAY
NIGHT. ON THE FLIP SIDE...INCREASING HEIGHTS ALSO WILL DIRECTLY
CORRELATE TO INCREASING TEMPS. EXPECT MORE SEASONABLE MID TO UPPER
80S BY TUESDAY FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 758 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

LIFR FOG WILL LIFT AND DISSIPATE THROUGH 13Z...WITH SCATTERED
STRATOCU IN THE 4 TO 6K FEET AGL RANGE DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. ANY
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS TO STAY
NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
AFTER 06Z...ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS TO BE LESS DENSE THAN THIS MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN






000
FXUS63 KJKL 301455 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1055 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1055 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER OVER
EAST KENTUCKY. EVEN SO...A FEW SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
ABLE TO MOVE OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA ALREADY THIS MORNING. THE
EARLY MORNING FOG HAS NOW BURNED OFF WITH JUST A SMATTERING OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS LEFT OVER THE AREA. MORNING LOWS WERE GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER 50S...THOUGH SOME UPPER 40S DID OCCUR WITH A 48 DEGREE READING
AT ISLAND CITY IN OWSLEY COUNTY AS THE COLD SPOT. JACKSON SET A
RECORD WITH 52 DEGREES...THANKS TO EARLY MORNING FOG SETTING IN AND
KNOCKING OFF ABOUT 3 DEGREES...AND LONDON TIED THEIRS AT 54. A GOOD
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD HELP SEND READINGS INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 70S BY LATE AFTERNOON. DO STILL ANTICIPATE A SMALL
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THUNDER
CANNOT BE RULED OUT FROM ANY SHOWER THAT MANAGES TO DEVELOP...BUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR THAT IS TOO LOW MENTION IN THE GRIDS OR ZONES...ATTM.
ALSO...UPDATED THE T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS...TRENDS...AND
CONSSHORT GUIDANCE. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
A FRESH SET OF ZONES WAS ISSUED...PRIMARILY TO REMOVE THE FOG.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 758 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO JIVE BETTER
WITH THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES HIGH PRESSURE ORIENTED FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS DOWN ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. UNSEASONABLY COOL
AIR IS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...WITH
THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY CURRENTLY REPORTING IN THE LOW
50S. ALOFT...CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS...
STEMMING FROM A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATING NEAR HUDSON BAY.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...ALLOWING FOR A THREAT
OF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. WILL MAINTAIN SOME
ISOLATED POPS AS WE HEAT UP MORE AT THE SURFACE TODAY...WHILE COOLER
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN PLACE. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH THE DEEPER VALLEYS
LIKELY DROPPING DOWN INTO THE LOW 50S ONCE AGAIN. RIDGES WILL BE A
BIT MILDER...WINDING UP IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

THURSDAY WILL FEATURE MILDER TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN
THE LOW 80S. A PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
WILL THREATEN FAR SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY WITH SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION...HOWEVER MOST OF THIS LOOKS TO STAY ON THE TENNESSEE
SIDE...AND WILL STICK WITH DRY WEATHER FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

LITTLE HAS CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. AMPLIFIED TROUGHING
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE BLOCKED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
STRONG RIDGING SITTING OVER THE SW CONUS AND OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. BY FRIDAY...EASTERN KY WILL FIND ITSELF ON THE LEEWARD SIDE
OF THE TROUGH...PUTTING MUCH OF THE APPALACHIAN REGION IN SW FLOW IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THOUGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL...THIS FLOW OF WARMER AIR FROM THE SOUTH WILL PULL TEMPS BACK
UP SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS DAYS...INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IT WILL ALSO CAUSE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE
HUMIDITY LEVELS AS WELL.

AS FOR THE PRECIP CONCERNS...THE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL KEEP A COLD
FRONT NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE GULF AND EASTERN SEABOARD.
THIS...IN ADDITION TO THE MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE DEEP SW-TO-NE
FLOW...WILL MAKE THIS REGION PRIME FOR ONGOING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE PREDOMINATELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION PULLING INTO KY TO SOME EXTENT EACH
DAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. USED THE LATEST NAM12 AND
GFS40 SOUNDINGS TO DETERMINE THE LIKELIHOOD OF THUNDER EACH DAY...AS
IS REFLECTED IN THE WX FORECAST.

THEN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BEGIN SINKING SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL
WORK TO INCREASE HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND...AS A
RESULT...DAMPEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY ALONG
THE TN AND VA BORDER...COVERAGE WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED. PRECIP
CHANCES SHOULD THEN FADE ALL TOGETHER FROM THE FORECAST BY MONDAY
NIGHT. ON THE FLIP SIDE...INCREASING HEIGHTS ALSO WILL DIRECTLY
CORRELATE TO INCREASING TEMPS. EXPECT MORE SEASONABLE MID TO UPPER
80S BY TUESDAY FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 758 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

LIFR FOG WILL LIFT AND DISSIPATE THROUGH 13Z...WITH SCATTERED
STRATOCU IN THE 4 TO 6K FEET AGL RANGE DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. ANY
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS TO STAY
NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
AFTER 06Z...ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS TO BE LESS DENSE THAN THIS MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN





000
FXUS63 KJKL 301158 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
758 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 758 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO JIVE BETTER
WITH THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES HIGH PRESSURE ORIENTED FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS DOWN ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. UNSEASONABLY COOL
AIR IS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...WITH
THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY CURRENTLY REPORTING IN THE LOW
50S. ALOFT...CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS...
STEMMING FROM A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATING NEAR HUDSON BAY.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...ALLOWING FOR A THREAT
OF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. WILL MAINTAIN SOME
ISOLATED POPS AS WE HEAT UP MORE AT THE SURFACE TODAY...WHILE COOLER
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN PLACE. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH THE DEEPER VALLEYS
LIKELY DROPPING DOWN INTO THE LOW 50S ONCE AGAIN. RIDGES WILL BE A
BIT MILDER...WINDING UP IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

THURSDAY WILL FEATURE MILDER TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN
THE LOW 80S. A PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
WILL THREATEN FAR SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY WITH SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION...HOWEVER MOST OF THIS LOOKS TO STAY ON THE TENNESSEE
SIDE...AND WILL STICK WITH DRY WEATHER FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

LITTLE HAS CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. AMPLIFIED TROUGHING
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE BLOCKED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
STRONG RIDGING SITTING OVER THE SW CONUS AND OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. BY FRIDAY...EASTERN KY WILL FIND ITSELF ON THE LEEWARD SIDE
OF THE TROUGH...PUTTING MUCH OF THE APPALACHIAN REGION IN SW FLOW IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THOUGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL...THIS FLOW OF WARMER AIR FROM THE SOUTH WILL PULL TEMPS BACK
UP SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS DAYS...INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IT WILL ALSO CAUSE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE
HUMIDITY LEVELS AS WELL.

AS FOR THE PRECIP CONCERNS...THE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL KEEP A COLD
FRONT NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE GULF AND EASTERN SEABOARD.
THIS...IN ADDITION TO THE MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE DEEP SW-TO-NE
FLOW...WILL MAKE THIS REGION PRIME FOR ONGOING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE PREDOMINATELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION PULLING INTO KY TO SOME EXTENT EACH
DAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. USED THE LATEST NAM12 AND
GFS40 SOUNDINGS TO DETERMINE THE LIKELIHOOD OF THUNDER EACH DAY...AS
IS REFLECTED IN THE WX FORECAST.

THEN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BEGIN SINKING SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL
WORK TO INCREASE HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND...AS A
RESULT...DAMPEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY ALONG
THE TN AND VA BORDER...COVERAGE WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED. PRECIP
CHANCES SHOULD THEN FADE ALL TOGETHER FROM THE FORECAST BY MONDAY
NIGHT. ON THE FLIP SIDE...INCREASING HEIGHTS ALSO WILL DIRECTLY
CORRELATE TO INCREASING TEMPS. EXPECT MORE SEASONABLE MID TO UPPER
80S BY TUESDAY FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 758 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

LIFR FOG WILL LIFT AND DISSIPATE THROUGH 13Z...WITH SCATTERED
STRATOCU IN THE 4 TO 6K FEET AGL RANGE DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. ANY
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS TO STAY
NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
AFTER 06Z...ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS TO BE LESS DENSE THAN THIS MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN








000
FXUS63 KJKL 300753
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
353 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES HIGH PRESSURE ORIENTED FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS DOWN ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. UNSEASONABLY COOL
AIR IS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...WITH
THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY CURRENTLY REPORTING IN THE LOW
50S. ALOFT...CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS...
STEMMING FROM A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATING NEAR HUDSON BAY.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...ALLOWING FOR A THREAT
OF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. WILL MAINTAIN SOME
ISOLATED POPS AS WE HEAT UP MORE AT THE SURFACE TODAY...WHILE COOLER
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN PLACE. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH THE DEEPER VALLEYS
LIKELY DROPPING DOWN INTO THE LOW 50S ONCE AGAIN. RIDGES WILL BE A
BIT MILDER...WINDING UP IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

THURSDAY WILL FEATURE MILDER TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN
THE LOW 80S. A PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
WILL THREATEN FAR SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY WITH SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION...HOWEVER MOST OF THIS LOOKS TO STAY ON THE TENNESSEE
SIDE...AND WILL STICK WITH DRY WEATHER FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

LITTLE HAS CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. AMPLIFIED TROUGHING
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE BLOCKED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
STRONG RIDGING SITTING OVER THE SW CONUS AND OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. BY FRIDAY...EASTERN KY WILL FIND ITSELF ON THE LEEWARD SIDE
OF THE TROUGH...PUTTING MUCH OF THE APPALACHIAN REGION IN SW FLOW IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THOUGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL...THIS FLOW OF WARMER AIR FROM THE SOUTH WILL PULL TEMPS BACK
UP SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS DAYS...INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IT WILL ALSO CAUSE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE
HUMIDITY LEVELS AS WELL.

AS FOR THE PRECIP CONCERNS...THE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL KEEP A COLD
FRONT NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE GULF AND EASTERN SEABOARD.
THIS...IN ADDITION TO THE MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE DEEP SW-TO-NE
FLOW...WILL MAKE THIS REGION PRIME FOR ONGOING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE PREDOMINATELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION PULLING INTO KY TO SOME EXTENT EACH
DAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. USED THE LATEST NAM12 AND
GFS40 SOUNDINGS TO DETERMINE THE LIKELIHOOD OF THUNDER EACH DAY...AS
IS REFLECTED IN THE WX FORECAST.

THEN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BEGIN SINKING SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL
WORK TO INCREASE HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND...AS A
RESULT...DAMPEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY ALONG
THE TN AND VA BORDER...COVERAGE WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED. PRECIP
CHANCES SHOULD THEN FADE ALL TOGETHER FROM THE FORECAST BY MONDAY
NIGHT. ON THE FLIP SIDE...INCREASING HEIGHTS ALSO WILL DIRECTLY
CORRELATE TO INCREASING TEMPS. EXPECT MORE SEASONABLE MID TO UPPER
80S BY TUESDAY FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO SOME MVFR FOG...ALTHOUGH
EXPECT THAT ANY IFR OR WORSE FOG TO BE CONSTRICTED TO THE DEEPER
RIVER VALLEYS. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF BY AROUND 13Z...WITH SCATTERED
STRATOCU IN THE 4 TO 6K FEET AGL RANGE DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY.
ANY ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO STAY NORTH OF THE TAF SITES.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN










000
FXUS63 KJKL 300753
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
353 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES HIGH PRESSURE ORIENTED FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS DOWN ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. UNSEASONABLY COOL
AIR IS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...WITH
THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY CURRENTLY REPORTING IN THE LOW
50S. ALOFT...CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS...
STEMMING FROM A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATING NEAR HUDSON BAY.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...ALLOWING FOR A THREAT
OF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. WILL MAINTAIN SOME
ISOLATED POPS AS WE HEAT UP MORE AT THE SURFACE TODAY...WHILE COOLER
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN PLACE. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH THE DEEPER VALLEYS
LIKELY DROPPING DOWN INTO THE LOW 50S ONCE AGAIN. RIDGES WILL BE A
BIT MILDER...WINDING UP IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

THURSDAY WILL FEATURE MILDER TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN
THE LOW 80S. A PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
WILL THREATEN FAR SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY WITH SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION...HOWEVER MOST OF THIS LOOKS TO STAY ON THE TENNESSEE
SIDE...AND WILL STICK WITH DRY WEATHER FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

LITTLE HAS CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. AMPLIFIED TROUGHING
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE BLOCKED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
STRONG RIDGING SITTING OVER THE SW CONUS AND OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. BY FRIDAY...EASTERN KY WILL FIND ITSELF ON THE LEEWARD SIDE
OF THE TROUGH...PUTTING MUCH OF THE APPALACHIAN REGION IN SW FLOW IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THOUGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL...THIS FLOW OF WARMER AIR FROM THE SOUTH WILL PULL TEMPS BACK
UP SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS DAYS...INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IT WILL ALSO CAUSE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE
HUMIDITY LEVELS AS WELL.

AS FOR THE PRECIP CONCERNS...THE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL KEEP A COLD
FRONT NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE GULF AND EASTERN SEABOARD.
THIS...IN ADDITION TO THE MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE DEEP SW-TO-NE
FLOW...WILL MAKE THIS REGION PRIME FOR ONGOING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE PREDOMINATELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION PULLING INTO KY TO SOME EXTENT EACH
DAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. USED THE LATEST NAM12 AND
GFS40 SOUNDINGS TO DETERMINE THE LIKELIHOOD OF THUNDER EACH DAY...AS
IS REFLECTED IN THE WX FORECAST.

THEN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BEGIN SINKING SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL
WORK TO INCREASE HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND...AS A
RESULT...DAMPEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY ALONG
THE TN AND VA BORDER...COVERAGE WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED. PRECIP
CHANCES SHOULD THEN FADE ALL TOGETHER FROM THE FORECAST BY MONDAY
NIGHT. ON THE FLIP SIDE...INCREASING HEIGHTS ALSO WILL DIRECTLY
CORRELATE TO INCREASING TEMPS. EXPECT MORE SEASONABLE MID TO UPPER
80S BY TUESDAY FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO SOME MVFR FOG...ALTHOUGH
EXPECT THAT ANY IFR OR WORSE FOG TO BE CONSTRICTED TO THE DEEPER
RIVER VALLEYS. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF BY AROUND 13Z...WITH SCATTERED
STRATOCU IN THE 4 TO 6K FEET AGL RANGE DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY.
ANY ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO STAY NORTH OF THE TAF SITES.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN









000
FXUS63 KJKL 300618 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
218 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. JUST FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY SKY
COVER...TEMPERATURES...AND DEW POINTS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON
THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1028 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

TWENTY-FOUR HOUR TEMP DIFFERENCES SHOW WE ARE RUNNING A SOLID 3 TO 6
DEGREES LOWER THAN THIS TIME LAST NIGHT. WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE AND
LESS CLOUD COVER...TEMPS WILL PROBABLY BOTTOM OUT A COUPLE DEGREES
LOWER THAN CURRENT FORECAST MINS. THEREFORE LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS
JUST A BIT. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKED GOOD. WILL UPDATE THE
ZONE PACKAGE TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING AND SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE WILL
UPDATE GRIDS FOR LATEST TRENDS AND THOUGHTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 857 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING DIMINISHING ECHOS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...
INDICATING THAT SPRINKLES ARE COMING TO AN END ACROSS THE REGION.
PLAN TO REMOVE SPRINKLES BY NEXT UPDATE. SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES
ROUNDING THE BOTTOM OF ATYPICAL DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL KEEP
THE THREAT OF A FEW MAINLY DIURNAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH TOMORROW. SKIES ARE CLEARING OUT QUITE
WELL THIS EVENING AND WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER COOL NIGHT.
CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND MAINLY ADJUSTED GRIDS FOR
LATEST HOURLY TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS IS ALL BENEATH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THAT LOW ALOFT...COOLER TEMPERATURES
JUST OFF THE SFC ARE ALSO INDUCING STRATO CU ACROSS THE AREA FURTHER
HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE TODAY. IN FACT...
SEVERAL SPOTS MAY HAVE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY NOT FAR
FROM 70 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES AT 19Z VARY FROM THE MID 60S NORTH OF
THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE FAR SOUTH. DEW POINTS
ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S WITH LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS NOTED. ON RADAR...A FEW SPRINKLES MAY BE MAKING IT TO
THE GROUND OVER FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA...BUT FOR THE MOST PART
ANY DISCERNIBLE SHOWERS ARE CONFINED TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF WEST
VIRGINIA. THE CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY CLEARING OUT...SETTING THE STAGE
FOR ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHT.

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
THEY ALL DEPICT THE DEEP TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY
COVERING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION AND HOLDING IN PLACE AS A
PIVOT SOUTH OF ITS CORE TAKES PLACE. THIS WILL REACH NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY THURSDAY MORNING. FOR THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
MEANS CONTINUED LOW HEIGHTS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF DECENT SHORTWAVES RUNNING THROUGH THIS PART OF THE TROUGH TO
AFFECT EAST KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT...WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE HIGHER RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS FROM THE HRRR AND NAM12.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT...FOR LATE JULY...
THAT WILL BENEFIT FROM MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS SETUP WILL FAVOR THE VALLEYS FOR THE COLDER
TEMPS AND KEEP THE RIDGES...ABOVE THE THERMAL BELT...A NOTCH MILDER.
HAVE SET UP THE LOW TEMPERATURE GRID TONIGHT...AND TO A SIMILAR
EXTENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOR THIS. IN ADDITION...ANTICIPATE SOME
PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPING TOWARD DAWN IN THE VALLEYS BOTH
NIGHTS. FOR WEDNESDAY PROPER...WITH THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHING...THE NAM12 SPITS OUT SOME LIGHT PCPN IN OUR NORTH. THIS
IS A REASONABLE POSSIBILITY...SO HAVE INCLUDED A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING
IN OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. GIVEN THE COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES...WOULD NOT RULE OUT A STRAY BOLT OF LIGHTNING...
BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE IT AS JUST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE
GRIDS AND ZONES.

AGAIN USED THE CONSSHORT...AND ITS BC VERSION...AS A STARTING POINT
FOR THE T...TD...AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THE
CONSALL SUITE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BETTER
REFLECT THE EXPECTED RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLITS. AS FOR POPS...OUTSIDE OF
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...KEPT THEM SUB 14 PERCENT FOR THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE POPS ENDED UP CLOSER
TO THE WETTER MET NUMBERS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IT WILL DEAMPLIFY BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK LEAVING OUR AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS UPPER LEVEL
SETUP WILL ENSURE A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT NOW STALLED ALONG THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC COASTS TO OUR SOUTH WILL WAFFLE AROUND BEING A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY ON THURSDAY...BUT BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNSETTLED LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS OUR LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEASTERLY TRANSPORTING ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WESTWARD. FOCUSING MECHANISMS ARE DIFFUSE AND WEAK...SO THE NET
RESULT SHOULD BE DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT MAINLY FOCUSED DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. RAIN CHANCES THEN DECREASE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EDGES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
PUSHING THE DEEPER MOISTURE BACK TO OUR EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO SOME MVFR FOG...ALTHOUGH
EXPECT THAT ANY IFR OR WORSE FOG TO BE CONSTRICTED TO THE DEEPER
RIVER VALLEYS. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF BY AROUND 13Z...WITH SCATTERED
STRATOCU IN THE 4 TO 6K FEET AGL RANGE DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY.
ANY ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO STAY NORTH OF THE TAF SITES.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN







000
FXUS63 KJKL 300618 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
218 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. JUST FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY SKY
COVER...TEMPERATURES...AND DEW POINTS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON
THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1028 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

TWENTY-FOUR HOUR TEMP DIFFERENCES SHOW WE ARE RUNNING A SOLID 3 TO 6
DEGREES LOWER THAN THIS TIME LAST NIGHT. WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE AND
LESS CLOUD COVER...TEMPS WILL PROBABLY BOTTOM OUT A COUPLE DEGREES
LOWER THAN CURRENT FORECAST MINS. THEREFORE LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS
JUST A BIT. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKED GOOD. WILL UPDATE THE
ZONE PACKAGE TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING AND SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE WILL
UPDATE GRIDS FOR LATEST TRENDS AND THOUGHTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 857 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING DIMINISHING ECHOS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...
INDICATING THAT SPRINKLES ARE COMING TO AN END ACROSS THE REGION.
PLAN TO REMOVE SPRINKLES BY NEXT UPDATE. SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES
ROUNDING THE BOTTOM OF ATYPICAL DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL KEEP
THE THREAT OF A FEW MAINLY DIURNAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH TOMORROW. SKIES ARE CLEARING OUT QUITE
WELL THIS EVENING AND WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER COOL NIGHT.
CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND MAINLY ADJUSTED GRIDS FOR
LATEST HOURLY TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS IS ALL BENEATH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THAT LOW ALOFT...COOLER TEMPERATURES
JUST OFF THE SFC ARE ALSO INDUCING STRATO CU ACROSS THE AREA FURTHER
HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE TODAY. IN FACT...
SEVERAL SPOTS MAY HAVE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY NOT FAR
FROM 70 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES AT 19Z VARY FROM THE MID 60S NORTH OF
THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE FAR SOUTH. DEW POINTS
ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S WITH LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS NOTED. ON RADAR...A FEW SPRINKLES MAY BE MAKING IT TO
THE GROUND OVER FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA...BUT FOR THE MOST PART
ANY DISCERNIBLE SHOWERS ARE CONFINED TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF WEST
VIRGINIA. THE CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY CLEARING OUT...SETTING THE STAGE
FOR ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHT.

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
THEY ALL DEPICT THE DEEP TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY
COVERING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION AND HOLDING IN PLACE AS A
PIVOT SOUTH OF ITS CORE TAKES PLACE. THIS WILL REACH NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY THURSDAY MORNING. FOR THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
MEANS CONTINUED LOW HEIGHTS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF DECENT SHORTWAVES RUNNING THROUGH THIS PART OF THE TROUGH TO
AFFECT EAST KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT...WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE HIGHER RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS FROM THE HRRR AND NAM12.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT...FOR LATE JULY...
THAT WILL BENEFIT FROM MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS SETUP WILL FAVOR THE VALLEYS FOR THE COLDER
TEMPS AND KEEP THE RIDGES...ABOVE THE THERMAL BELT...A NOTCH MILDER.
HAVE SET UP THE LOW TEMPERATURE GRID TONIGHT...AND TO A SIMILAR
EXTENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOR THIS. IN ADDITION...ANTICIPATE SOME
PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPING TOWARD DAWN IN THE VALLEYS BOTH
NIGHTS. FOR WEDNESDAY PROPER...WITH THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHING...THE NAM12 SPITS OUT SOME LIGHT PCPN IN OUR NORTH. THIS
IS A REASONABLE POSSIBILITY...SO HAVE INCLUDED A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING
IN OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. GIVEN THE COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES...WOULD NOT RULE OUT A STRAY BOLT OF LIGHTNING...
BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE IT AS JUST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE
GRIDS AND ZONES.

AGAIN USED THE CONSSHORT...AND ITS BC VERSION...AS A STARTING POINT
FOR THE T...TD...AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THE
CONSALL SUITE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BETTER
REFLECT THE EXPECTED RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLITS. AS FOR POPS...OUTSIDE OF
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...KEPT THEM SUB 14 PERCENT FOR THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE POPS ENDED UP CLOSER
TO THE WETTER MET NUMBERS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IT WILL DEAMPLIFY BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK LEAVING OUR AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS UPPER LEVEL
SETUP WILL ENSURE A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT NOW STALLED ALONG THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC COASTS TO OUR SOUTH WILL WAFFLE AROUND BEING A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY ON THURSDAY...BUT BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNSETTLED LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS OUR LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEASTERLY TRANSPORTING ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WESTWARD. FOCUSING MECHANISMS ARE DIFFUSE AND WEAK...SO THE NET
RESULT SHOULD BE DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT MAINLY FOCUSED DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. RAIN CHANCES THEN DECREASE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EDGES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
PUSHING THE DEEPER MOISTURE BACK TO OUR EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO SOME MVFR FOG...ALTHOUGH
EXPECT THAT ANY IFR OR WORSE FOG TO BE CONSTRICTED TO THE DEEPER
RIVER VALLEYS. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF BY AROUND 13Z...WITH SCATTERED
STRATOCU IN THE 4 TO 6K FEET AGL RANGE DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY.
ANY ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO STAY NORTH OF THE TAF SITES.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN








000
FXUS63 KJKL 300228
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1028 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1028 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

TWENTY-FOUR HOUR TEMP DIFFERENCES SHOW WE ARE RUNNING A SOLID 3 TO 6
DEGREES LOWER THAN THIS TIME LAST NIGHT. WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE AND
LESS CLOUD COVER...TEMPS WILL PROBABLY BOTTOM OUT A COUPLE DEGREES
LOWER THAN CURRENT FORECAST MINS. THEREFORE LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS
JUST A BIT. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKED GOOD. WILL UPDATE THE
ZONE PACKAGE TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING AND SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE WILL
UPDATE GRIDS FOR LATEST TRENDS AND THOUGHTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 857 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING DIMINISHING ECHOS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...
INDICATING THAT SPRINKLES ARE COMING TO AN END ACROSS THE REGION.
PLAN TO REMOVE SPRINKLES BY NEXT UPDATE. SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES
ROUNDING THE BOTTOM OF ATYPICAL DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL KEEP
THE THREAT OF A FEW MAINLY DIURNAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH TOMORROW. SKIES ARE CLEARING OUT QUITE
WELL THIS EVENING AND WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER COOL NIGHT.
CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND MAINLY ADJUSTED GRIDS FOR
LATEST HOURLY TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS IS ALL BENEATH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THAT LOW ALOFT...COOLER TEMPERATURES
JUST OFF THE SFC ARE ALSO INDUCING STRATO CU ACROSS THE AREA FURTHER
HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE TODAY. IN FACT...
SEVERAL SPOTS MAY HAVE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY NOT FAR
FROM 70 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES AT 19Z VARY FROM THE MID 60S NORTH OF
THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE FAR SOUTH. DEW POINTS
ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S WITH LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS NOTED. ON RADAR...A FEW SPRINKLES MAY BE MAKING IT TO
THE GROUND OVER FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA...BUT FOR THE MOST PART
ANY DISCERNIBLE SHOWERS ARE CONFINED TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF WEST
VIRGINIA. THE CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY CLEARING OUT...SETTING THE STAGE
FOR ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHT.

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
THEY ALL DEPICT THE DEEP TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY
COVERING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION AND HOLDING IN PLACE AS A
PIVOT SOUTH OF ITS CORE TAKES PLACE. THIS WILL REACH NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY THURSDAY MORNING. FOR THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
MEANS CONTINUED LOW HEIGHTS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF DECENT SHORTWAVES RUNNING THROUGH THIS PART OF THE TROUGH TO
AFFECT EAST KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT...WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE HIGHER RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS FROM THE HRRR AND NAM12.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT...FOR LATE JULY...
THAT WILL BENEFIT FROM MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS SETUP WILL FAVOR THE VALLEYS FOR THE COLDER
TEMPS AND KEEP THE RIDGES...ABOVE THE THERMAL BELT...A NOTCH MILDER.
HAVE SET UP THE LOW TEMPERATURE GRID TONIGHT...AND TO A SIMILAR
EXTENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOR THIS. IN ADDITION...ANTICIPATE SOME
PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPING TOWARD DAWN IN THE VALLEYS BOTH
NIGHTS. FOR WEDNESDAY PROPER...WITH THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHING...THE NAM12 SPITS OUT SOME LIGHT PCPN IN OUR NORTH. THIS
IS A REASONABLE POSSIBILITY...SO HAVE INCLUDED A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING
IN OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. GIVEN THE COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES...WOULD NOT RULE OUT A STRAY BOLT OF LIGHTNING...
BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE IT AS JUST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE
GRIDS AND ZONES.

AGAIN USED THE CONSSHORT...AND ITS BC VERSION...AS A STARTING POINT
FOR THE T...TD...AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THE
CONSALL SUITE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BETTER
REFLECT THE EXPECTED RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLITS. AS FOR POPS...OUTSIDE OF
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...KEPT THEM SUB 14 PERCENT FOR THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE POPS ENDED UP CLOSER
TO THE WETTER MET NUMBERS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IT WILL DEAMPLIFY BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK LEAVING OUR AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS UPPER LEVEL
SETUP WILL ENSURE A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT NOW STALLED ALONG THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC COASTS TO OUR SOUTH WILL WAFFLE AROUND BEING A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY ON THURSDAY...BUT BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNSETTLED LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS OUR LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEASTERLY TRANSPORTING ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WESTWARD. FOCUSING MECHANISMS ARE DIFFUSE AND WEAK...SO THE NET
RESULT SHOULD BE DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT MAINLY FOCUSED DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. RAIN CHANCES THEN DECREASE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EDGES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
PUSHING THE DEEPER MOISTURE BACK TO OUR EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 857 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

CIGS...WHERE THEY EXISTED ARE SCATTERING OUT WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING. THE LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT SHOULD YIELD
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND VALLEY FOG FORMATION. FOR THIS...HAVE
ALLOWED SOME MVFR FOG AT JKL AND SJS AND A TIME OF IFR CONDITIONS AT
LOZ AND SME BETWEEN 07 AND 13Z. HOWEVER WITH DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...
CROSSOVER DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 50S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY
IN THE MID 50S FORECAST FELT IT PRUDENT TO STAY MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN
GUIDANCE. FOG WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER DAWN WEDNESDAY. CANNOT RULE
OUT A STRAY SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS
WILL NOT AFFECT ANY TAF SITES. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...BUT
PREDOMINANTLY OUT OF THE WEST...NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GREIF/RAY







000
FXUS63 KJKL 300057
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
857 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 857 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING DIMINISHING ECHOS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...
INDICATING THAT SPRINKLES ARE COMING TO AN END ACROSS THE REGION.
PLAN TO REMOVE SPRINKLES BY NEXT UPDATE. SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES
ROUNDING THE BOTTOM OF ATYPICAL DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL KEEP
THE THREAT OF A FEW MAINLY DIURNAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH TOMORROW. SKIES ARE CLEARING OUT QUITE
WELL THIS EVENING AND WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER COOL NIGHT.
CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND MAINLY ADJUSTED GRIDS FOR
LATEST HOURLY TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS IS ALL BENEATH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THAT LOW ALOFT...COOLER TEMPERATURES
JUST OFF THE SFC ARE ALSO INDUCING STRATO CU ACROSS THE AREA FURTHER
HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE TODAY. IN FACT...
SEVERAL SPOTS MAY HAVE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY NOT FAR
FROM 70 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES AT 19Z VARY FROM THE MID 60S NORTH OF
THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE FAR SOUTH. DEWPOINTS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS NOTED. ON RADAR...A FEW SPRINKLES MAY BE MAKING IT TO THE
GROUND OVER FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA...BUT FOR THE MOST PART ANY
DISCERNIBLE SHOWERS ARE CONFINED TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF WEST
VIRGINIA. THE CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY CLEARING OUT...SETTING THE STAGE
FOR ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHT.

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
THEY ALL DEPICT THE DEEP TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY
COVERING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION AND HOLDING IN PLACE AS A
PIVOT SOUTH OF ITS CORE TAKES PLACE. THIS WILL REACH NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY THURSDAY MORNING. FOR THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
MEANS CONTINUED LOW HEIGHTS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF DECENT SHORTWAVES RUNNING THROUGH THIS PART OF THE TROUGH TO
AFFECT EAST KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT...WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE HIGHER RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS FROM THE HRRR AND NAM12.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT...FOR LATE JULY...
THAT WILL BENEFIT FROM MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS SETUP WILL FAVOR THE VALLEYS FOR THE COLDER
TEMPS AND KEEP THE RIDGES...ABOVE THE THERMAL BELT...A NOTCH MILDER.
HAVE SET UP THE LOW TEMPERATURE GRID TONIGHT...AND TO A SIMILAR
EXTENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOR THIS. IN ADDITION...ANTICIPATE SOME
PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPING TOWARD DAWN IN THE VALLEYS BOTH
NIGHTS. FOR WEDNESDAY PROPER...WITH THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHING...THE NAM12 SPITS OUT SOME LIGHT PCPN IN OUR NORTH. THIS
IS A REASONABLE POSSIBILITY...SO HAVE INCLUDED A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING
IN OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. GIVEN THE COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES...WOULD NOT RULE OUT A STRAY BOLT OF LIGHTNING...
BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE IT AS JUST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE
GRIDS AND ZONES.

AGAIN USED THE CONSSHORT...AND ITS BC VERSION...AS A STARTING POINT
FOR THE T...TD...AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THE
CONSALL SUITE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BETTER
REFLECT THE EXPECTED RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLITS. AS FOR POPS...OUTSIDE OF
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...KEPT THEM SUB 14 PERCENT FOR THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE POPS ENDED UP CLOSER
TO THE WETTER MET NUMBERS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IT WILL DEAMPLIFY BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK LEAVING OUR AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS UPPER LEVEL
SETUP WILL ENSURE A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT NOW STALLED ALONG THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC COASTS TO OUR SOUTH WILL WAFFLE AROUND BEING A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY ON THURSDAY...BUT BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNSETTLED LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS OUR LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEASTERLY TRANSPORTING ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WESTWARD. FOCUSING MECHANISMS ARE DIFFUSE AND WEAK...SO THE NET
RESULT SHOULD BE DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT MAINLY FOCUSED DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. RAIN CHANCES THEN DECREASE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EDGES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
PUSHING THE DEEPER MOISTURE BACK TO OUR EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 857 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

CIGS...WHERE THEY EXISTED ARE SCATTERING OUT WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING. THE LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT SHOULD YIELD
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND VALLEY FOG FORMATION. FOR THIS...HAVE
ALLOWED SOME MVFR FOG AT JKL AND SJS AND A TIME OF IFR CONDITIONS AT
LOZ AND SME BETWEEN 07 AND 13Z. HOWEVER WITH DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...
CROSSOVER DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 50S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY
IN THE MID 50S FORECAST FELT IT PRUDENT TO STAY MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN
GUIDANCE. FOG WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER DAWN WEDNESDAY. CANNOT RULE
OUT A STRAY SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS
WILL NOT AFFECT ANY TAF SITES. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...BUT
PREDOMINANTLY OUT OF THE WEST...NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GREIF/RAY








000
FXUS63 KJKL 300057
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
857 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 857 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING DIMINISHING ECHOS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...
INDICATING THAT SPRINKLES ARE COMING TO AN END ACROSS THE REGION.
PLAN TO REMOVE SPRINKLES BY NEXT UPDATE. SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES
ROUNDING THE BOTTOM OF ATYPICAL DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL KEEP
THE THREAT OF A FEW MAINLY DIURNAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH TOMORROW. SKIES ARE CLEARING OUT QUITE
WELL THIS EVENING AND WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER COOL NIGHT.
CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND MAINLY ADJUSTED GRIDS FOR
LATEST HOURLY TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS IS ALL BENEATH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THAT LOW ALOFT...COOLER TEMPERATURES
JUST OFF THE SFC ARE ALSO INDUCING STRATO CU ACROSS THE AREA FURTHER
HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE TODAY. IN FACT...
SEVERAL SPOTS MAY HAVE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY NOT FAR
FROM 70 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES AT 19Z VARY FROM THE MID 60S NORTH OF
THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE FAR SOUTH. DEWPOINTS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS NOTED. ON RADAR...A FEW SPRINKLES MAY BE MAKING IT TO THE
GROUND OVER FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA...BUT FOR THE MOST PART ANY
DISCERNIBLE SHOWERS ARE CONFINED TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF WEST
VIRGINIA. THE CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY CLEARING OUT...SETTING THE STAGE
FOR ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHT.

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
THEY ALL DEPICT THE DEEP TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY
COVERING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION AND HOLDING IN PLACE AS A
PIVOT SOUTH OF ITS CORE TAKES PLACE. THIS WILL REACH NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY THURSDAY MORNING. FOR THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
MEANS CONTINUED LOW HEIGHTS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF DECENT SHORTWAVES RUNNING THROUGH THIS PART OF THE TROUGH TO
AFFECT EAST KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT...WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE HIGHER RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS FROM THE HRRR AND NAM12.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT...FOR LATE JULY...
THAT WILL BENEFIT FROM MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS SETUP WILL FAVOR THE VALLEYS FOR THE COLDER
TEMPS AND KEEP THE RIDGES...ABOVE THE THERMAL BELT...A NOTCH MILDER.
HAVE SET UP THE LOW TEMPERATURE GRID TONIGHT...AND TO A SIMILAR
EXTENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOR THIS. IN ADDITION...ANTICIPATE SOME
PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPING TOWARD DAWN IN THE VALLEYS BOTH
NIGHTS. FOR WEDNESDAY PROPER...WITH THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHING...THE NAM12 SPITS OUT SOME LIGHT PCPN IN OUR NORTH. THIS
IS A REASONABLE POSSIBILITY...SO HAVE INCLUDED A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING
IN OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. GIVEN THE COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES...WOULD NOT RULE OUT A STRAY BOLT OF LIGHTNING...
BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE IT AS JUST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE
GRIDS AND ZONES.

AGAIN USED THE CONSSHORT...AND ITS BC VERSION...AS A STARTING POINT
FOR THE T...TD...AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THE
CONSALL SUITE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BETTER
REFLECT THE EXPECTED RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLITS. AS FOR POPS...OUTSIDE OF
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...KEPT THEM SUB 14 PERCENT FOR THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE POPS ENDED UP CLOSER
TO THE WETTER MET NUMBERS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IT WILL DEAMPLIFY BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK LEAVING OUR AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS UPPER LEVEL
SETUP WILL ENSURE A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT NOW STALLED ALONG THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC COASTS TO OUR SOUTH WILL WAFFLE AROUND BEING A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY ON THURSDAY...BUT BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNSETTLED LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS OUR LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEASTERLY TRANSPORTING ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WESTWARD. FOCUSING MECHANISMS ARE DIFFUSE AND WEAK...SO THE NET
RESULT SHOULD BE DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT MAINLY FOCUSED DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. RAIN CHANCES THEN DECREASE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EDGES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
PUSHING THE DEEPER MOISTURE BACK TO OUR EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 857 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

CIGS...WHERE THEY EXISTED ARE SCATTERING OUT WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING. THE LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT SHOULD YIELD
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND VALLEY FOG FORMATION. FOR THIS...HAVE
ALLOWED SOME MVFR FOG AT JKL AND SJS AND A TIME OF IFR CONDITIONS AT
LOZ AND SME BETWEEN 07 AND 13Z. HOWEVER WITH DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...
CROSSOVER DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 50S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY
IN THE MID 50S FORECAST FELT IT PRUDENT TO STAY MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN
GUIDANCE. FOG WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER DAWN WEDNESDAY. CANNOT RULE
OUT A STRAY SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS
WILL NOT AFFECT ANY TAF SITES. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...BUT
PREDOMINANTLY OUT OF THE WEST...NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GREIF/RAY







000
FXUS63 KJKL 291945 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
345 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS IS ALL BENEATH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THAT LOW ALOFT...COOLER TEMPERATURES
JUST OFF THE SFC ARE ALSO INDUCING STRATO CU ACROSS THE AREA FURTHER
HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE TODAY. IN FACT...
SEVERAL SPOTS MAY HAVE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY NOT FAR
FROM 70 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES AT 19Z VARY FROM THE MID 60S NORTH OF
THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE FAR SOUTH. DEWPOINTS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS NOTED. ON RADAR...A FEW SPRINKLES MAY BE MAKING IT TO THE
GROUND OVER FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA...BUT FOR THE MOST PART ANY
DISCERNIBLE SHOWERS ARE CONFINED TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF WEST
VIRGINIA. THE CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY CLEARING OUT...SETTING THE STAGE
FOR ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHT.

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
THEY ALL DEPICT THE DEEP TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY
COVERING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION AND HOLDING IN PLACE AS A
PIVOT SOUTH OF ITS CORE TAKES PLACE. THIS WILL REACH NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY THURSDAY MORNING. FOR THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
MEANS CONTINUED LOW HEIGHTS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF DECENT SHORTWAVES RUNNING THROUGH THIS PART OF THE TROUGH TO
AFFECT EAST KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT...WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE HIGHER RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS FROM THE HRRR AND NAM12.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT...FOR LATE JULY...
THAT WILL BENEFIT FROM MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS SETUP WILL FAVOR THE VALLEYS FOR THE COLDER
TEMPS AND KEEP THE RIDGES...ABOVE THE THERMAL BELT...A NOTCH MILDER.
HAVE SET UP THE LOW TEMPERATURE GRID TONIGHT...AND TO A SIMILAR
EXTENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOR THIS. IN ADDITION...ANTICIPATE SOME
PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPING TOWARD DAWN IN THE VALLEYS BOTH
NIGHTS. FOR WEDNESDAY PROPER...WITH THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHING...THE NAM12 SPITS OUT SOME LIGHT PCPN IN OUR NORTH. THIS
IS A REASONABLE POSSIBILITY...SO HAVE INCLUDED A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING
IN OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. GIVEN THE COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES...WOULD NOT RULE OUT A STRAY BOLT OF LIGHTNING...
BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE IT AS JUST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE
GRIDS AND ZONES.

AGAIN USED THE CONSSHORT...AND ITS BC VERSION...AS A STARTING POINT
FOR THE T...TD...AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THE
CONSALL SUITE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BETTER
REFLECT THE EXPECTED RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLITS. AS FOR POPS...OUTSIDE OF
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...KEPT THEM SUB 14 PERCENT FOR THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE POPS ENDED UP CLOSER
TO THE WETTER MET NUMBERS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IT WILL DEAMPLIFY BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK LEAVING OUR AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS UPPER LEVEL
SETUP WILL ENSURE A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT NOW STALLED ALONG THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC COASTS TO OUR SOUTH WILL WAFFLE AROUND BEING A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY ON THURSDAY...BUT BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNSETTLED LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS OUR LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEASTERLY TRANSPORTING ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WESTWARD. FOCUSING MECHANISMS ARE DIFFUSE AND WEAK...SO THE NET
RESULT SHOULD BE DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT MAINLY FOCUSED DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. RAIN CHANCES THEN DECREASE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EDGES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
PUSHING THE DEEPER MOISTURE BACK TO OUR EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

CIGS...WHERE THEY EXIST...ARE NOW ABOVE MVFR SO THAT HAS SIMPLIFIED
THE TAFS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT AS THE CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO TREND TOWARD CLEARING. THE LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT
SHOULD YIELD GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND VALLEY FOG FORMATION. FOR
THIS...HAVE ALLOWED SOME MVFR FOG AT JKL AND SJS AND A TIME OF IFR
CONDITIONS AT LOZ AND SME BETWEEN 07 AND 13Z. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF
SHORTLY AFTER DAWN WITH ANY CIGS NEAR 4K FEET. CANNOT RULE OUT A
STRAY SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS WILL NOT
AFFECT ANY TAF SITES. WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GREIF






000
FXUS63 KJKL 291945 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
345 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS IS ALL BENEATH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THAT LOW ALOFT...COOLER TEMPERATURES
JUST OFF THE SFC ARE ALSO INDUCING STRATO CU ACROSS THE AREA FURTHER
HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE TODAY. IN FACT...
SEVERAL SPOTS MAY HAVE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY NOT FAR
FROM 70 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES AT 19Z VARY FROM THE MID 60S NORTH OF
THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE FAR SOUTH. DEWPOINTS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS NOTED. ON RADAR...A FEW SPRINKLES MAY BE MAKING IT TO THE
GROUND OVER FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA...BUT FOR THE MOST PART ANY
DISCERNIBLE SHOWERS ARE CONFINED TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF WEST
VIRGINIA. THE CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY CLEARING OUT...SETTING THE STAGE
FOR ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHT.

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
THEY ALL DEPICT THE DEEP TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY
COVERING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION AND HOLDING IN PLACE AS A
PIVOT SOUTH OF ITS CORE TAKES PLACE. THIS WILL REACH NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY THURSDAY MORNING. FOR THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
MEANS CONTINUED LOW HEIGHTS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF DECENT SHORTWAVES RUNNING THROUGH THIS PART OF THE TROUGH TO
AFFECT EAST KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT...WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE HIGHER RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS FROM THE HRRR AND NAM12.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT...FOR LATE JULY...
THAT WILL BENEFIT FROM MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS SETUP WILL FAVOR THE VALLEYS FOR THE COLDER
TEMPS AND KEEP THE RIDGES...ABOVE THE THERMAL BELT...A NOTCH MILDER.
HAVE SET UP THE LOW TEMPERATURE GRID TONIGHT...AND TO A SIMILAR
EXTENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOR THIS. IN ADDITION...ANTICIPATE SOME
PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPING TOWARD DAWN IN THE VALLEYS BOTH
NIGHTS. FOR WEDNESDAY PROPER...WITH THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHING...THE NAM12 SPITS OUT SOME LIGHT PCPN IN OUR NORTH. THIS
IS A REASONABLE POSSIBILITY...SO HAVE INCLUDED A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING
IN OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. GIVEN THE COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES...WOULD NOT RULE OUT A STRAY BOLT OF LIGHTNING...
BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE IT AS JUST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE
GRIDS AND ZONES.

AGAIN USED THE CONSSHORT...AND ITS BC VERSION...AS A STARTING POINT
FOR THE T...TD...AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THE
CONSALL SUITE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BETTER
REFLECT THE EXPECTED RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLITS. AS FOR POPS...OUTSIDE OF
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...KEPT THEM SUB 14 PERCENT FOR THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE POPS ENDED UP CLOSER
TO THE WETTER MET NUMBERS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IT WILL DEAMPLIFY BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK LEAVING OUR AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS UPPER LEVEL
SETUP WILL ENSURE A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT NOW STALLED ALONG THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC COASTS TO OUR SOUTH WILL WAFFLE AROUND BEING A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY ON THURSDAY...BUT BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNSETTLED LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS OUR LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEASTERLY TRANSPORTING ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WESTWARD. FOCUSING MECHANISMS ARE DIFFUSE AND WEAK...SO THE NET
RESULT SHOULD BE DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT MAINLY FOCUSED DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. RAIN CHANCES THEN DECREASE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EDGES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
PUSHING THE DEEPER MOISTURE BACK TO OUR EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

CIGS...WHERE THEY EXIST...ARE NOW ABOVE MVFR SO THAT HAS SIMPLIFIED
THE TAFS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT AS THE CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO TREND TOWARD CLEARING. THE LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT
SHOULD YIELD GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND VALLEY FOG FORMATION. FOR
THIS...HAVE ALLOWED SOME MVFR FOG AT JKL AND SJS AND A TIME OF IFR
CONDITIONS AT LOZ AND SME BETWEEN 07 AND 13Z. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF
SHORTLY AFTER DAWN WITH ANY CIGS NEAR 4K FEET. CANNOT RULE OUT A
STRAY SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS WILL NOT
AFFECT ANY TAF SITES. WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GREIF





000
FXUS63 KJKL 291850 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
250 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH HELD TEMPERATURES IN CHECK UP THERE FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY SO FAR. HOWEVER...THEY ARE CLEARING OUT NOW AND
SHOULD ALLOW READINGS TO CATCH UP. EVEN SO...HAVE ADJUSTED HIGHS FOR
THIS AREA DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES AND ALSO FINE TUNED THE HOURLY
T/TD GRIDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA PER THE LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS. THESE MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1055 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST AND OHIO
VALLEY. A NEARBY UPPER LOW IS KEEPING STRATO-CU AROUND AND FROM
THIS...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...A FEW SPRINKLES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST AND ALSO ADJUSTED THE SKY
COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALSO...FINE TUNED THE T AND TD GRIDS
BASED ON THE LATEST OBS...TRENDS...AND CONSSHORT GUIDANCE. THESE HAVE
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SITES ALONG WITH A FRESHENED SET OF
ZONES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND SKY COVER TO
MATCH UP BETTER WITH THE LATEST TREND IN OBSERVATIONS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME
MORE ESTABLISHED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE PERIOD...
KEEPING OUR WEATHER MAINLY DRY.

HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH INTO THE LOW AND MID 70S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP WELL INTO THE 50S AS SKIES BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW UPPER 40S...WHICH WOULD MOST
LIKELY ECLIPSE RECORD LOWS AT SOME LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND ON WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS RECOVER....RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S
TO AROUND 80.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL BE CENTER STAGE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...BEING BLOCKED BETWEEN TWO STRONG RIDGES...ONE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS...AND ONE OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THIS TROUGH
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY AND
PULLS SOUTHWARD ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF COAST. SO LONG AS THIS
PATTERN IS IN PLACE...WE WILL EXPERIENCE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. EVERY DAY DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS LOOKING AT
UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S FOR HIGHS...AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR LOWS.
THERE WILL BE NO DISTINCT SHORTWAVES WHICH WILL TRAVERSE THE PATH OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...BUT THE JET STREAM SET UP IN THIS REGIME
WILL HAVE A STRONG INFLUENCE IN THE PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE TIME
PERIOD.

GIVEN THE UNUSUALLY SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS POLAR LOW...THE
POLAR JET STREAM WILL ALSO PULL UNCOMMONLY FAR SOUTHWARD /ESPECIALLY
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR/...ROUNDING THE TROUGH ALONG THE OHIO RIVER
AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. FOR THURSDAY...THIS JET WILL BE WEST TO
EAST ORIENTED ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...PULLING IN DRY NW FLOW.
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SURFACE UPSLOPE FLOW COULD PRODUCE A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE
SE...BUT OTHERWISE PREDOMINATELY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. BY FRIDAY
HOWEVER...THE JET SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WESTWARD SO THAT IT BECOMES MORE
SW TO NE ORIENTED ACROSS EASTERN KY. THIS WILL PULL DEEP MOISTURE IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN AND EASTERN SEABOARD
REGION...AND BRING THE CHANCE FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN KY AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE JET WILL THEN REMAIN IN THIS POSITION THROUGH
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS EASTERN KY EACH DAY.
GIVEN THE LACK OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW OF THE
TROUGH...NO WIDESPREAD PRECIP CHANCES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF KY DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

CIGS...WHERE THEY EXIST...ARE NOW ABOVE MVFR SO THAT HAS SIMPLIFIED
THE TAFS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT AS THE CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO TREND TOWARD CLEARING. THE LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT
SHOULD YIELD GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND VALLEY FOG FORMATION. FOR
THIS...HAVE ALLOWED SOME MVFR FOG AT JKL AND SJS AND A TIME OF IFR
CONDITIONS AT LOZ AND SME BETWEEN 07 AND 13Z. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF
SHORTLY AFTER DAWN WITH ANY CIGS NEAR 4K FEET. CANNOT RULE OUT A
STRAY SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS WILL NOT
AFFECT ANY TAF SITES. WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GREIF








000
FXUS63 KJKL 291850 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
250 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH HELD TEMPERATURES IN CHECK UP THERE FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY SO FAR. HOWEVER...THEY ARE CLEARING OUT NOW AND
SHOULD ALLOW READINGS TO CATCH UP. EVEN SO...HAVE ADJUSTED HIGHS FOR
THIS AREA DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES AND ALSO FINE TUNED THE HOURLY
T/TD GRIDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA PER THE LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS. THESE MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1055 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST AND OHIO
VALLEY. A NEARBY UPPER LOW IS KEEPING STRATO-CU AROUND AND FROM
THIS...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...A FEW SPRINKLES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST AND ALSO ADJUSTED THE SKY
COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALSO...FINE TUNED THE T AND TD GRIDS
BASED ON THE LATEST OBS...TRENDS...AND CONSSHORT GUIDANCE. THESE HAVE
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SITES ALONG WITH A FRESHENED SET OF
ZONES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND SKY COVER TO
MATCH UP BETTER WITH THE LATEST TREND IN OBSERVATIONS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME
MORE ESTABLISHED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE PERIOD...
KEEPING OUR WEATHER MAINLY DRY.

HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH INTO THE LOW AND MID 70S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP WELL INTO THE 50S AS SKIES BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW UPPER 40S...WHICH WOULD MOST
LIKELY ECLIPSE RECORD LOWS AT SOME LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND ON WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS RECOVER....RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S
TO AROUND 80.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL BE CENTER STAGE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...BEING BLOCKED BETWEEN TWO STRONG RIDGES...ONE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS...AND ONE OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THIS TROUGH
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY AND
PULLS SOUTHWARD ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF COAST. SO LONG AS THIS
PATTERN IS IN PLACE...WE WILL EXPERIENCE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. EVERY DAY DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS LOOKING AT
UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S FOR HIGHS...AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR LOWS.
THERE WILL BE NO DISTINCT SHORTWAVES WHICH WILL TRAVERSE THE PATH OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...BUT THE JET STREAM SET UP IN THIS REGIME
WILL HAVE A STRONG INFLUENCE IN THE PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE TIME
PERIOD.

GIVEN THE UNUSUALLY SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS POLAR LOW...THE
POLAR JET STREAM WILL ALSO PULL UNCOMMONLY FAR SOUTHWARD /ESPECIALLY
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR/...ROUNDING THE TROUGH ALONG THE OHIO RIVER
AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. FOR THURSDAY...THIS JET WILL BE WEST TO
EAST ORIENTED ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...PULLING IN DRY NW FLOW.
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SURFACE UPSLOPE FLOW COULD PRODUCE A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE
SE...BUT OTHERWISE PREDOMINATELY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. BY FRIDAY
HOWEVER...THE JET SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WESTWARD SO THAT IT BECOMES MORE
SW TO NE ORIENTED ACROSS EASTERN KY. THIS WILL PULL DEEP MOISTURE IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN AND EASTERN SEABOARD
REGION...AND BRING THE CHANCE FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN KY AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE JET WILL THEN REMAIN IN THIS POSITION THROUGH
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS EASTERN KY EACH DAY.
GIVEN THE LACK OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW OF THE
TROUGH...NO WIDESPREAD PRECIP CHANCES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF KY DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

CIGS...WHERE THEY EXIST...ARE NOW ABOVE MVFR SO THAT HAS SIMPLIFIED
THE TAFS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT AS THE CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO TREND TOWARD CLEARING. THE LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT
SHOULD YIELD GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND VALLEY FOG FORMATION. FOR
THIS...HAVE ALLOWED SOME MVFR FOG AT JKL AND SJS AND A TIME OF IFR
CONDITIONS AT LOZ AND SME BETWEEN 07 AND 13Z. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF
SHORTLY AFTER DAWN WITH ANY CIGS NEAR 4K FEET. CANNOT RULE OUT A
STRAY SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS WILL NOT
AFFECT ANY TAF SITES. WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GREIF







000
FXUS63 KJKL 291455 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1055 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1055 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST AND OHIO
VALLEY. A NEARBY UPPER LOW IS KEEPING STRATO-CU AROUND AND FROM
THIS...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...A FEW SPRINKLES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST AND ALSO ADJUSTED THE SKY
COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALSO...FINE TUNED THE T AND TD GRIDS
BASED ON THE LATEST OBS...TRENDS...AND CONSSHORT GUIDANCE. THESE HAVE
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SITES ALONG WITH A FRESHENED SET OF
ZONES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND SKY COVER TO
MATCH UP BETTER WITH THE LATEST TREND IN OBSERVATIONS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME
MORE ESTABLISHED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE PERIOD...
KEEPING OUR WEATHER MAINLY DRY.

HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH INTO THE LOW AND MID 70S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP WELL INTO THE 50S AS SKIES BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW UPPER 40S...WHICH WOULD MOST
LIKELY ECLIPSE RECORD LOWS AT SOME LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND ON WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS RECOVER....RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S
TO AROUND 80.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL BE CENTER STAGE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...BEING BLOCKED BETWEEN TWO STRONG RIDGES...ONE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS...AND ONE OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THIS TROUGH
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY AND
PULLS SOUTHWARD ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF COAST. SO LONG AS THIS
PATTERN IS IN PLACE...WE WILL EXPERIENCE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. EVERY DAY DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS LOOKING AT
UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S FOR HIGHS...AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR LOWS.
THERE WILL BE NO DISTINCT SHORTWAVES WHICH WILL TRAVERSE THE PATH OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...BUT THE JET STREAM SET UP IN THIS REGIME
WILL HAVE A STRONG INFLUENCE IN THE PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE TIME
PERIOD.

GIVEN THE UNUSUALLY SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS POLAR LOW...THE
POLAR JET STREAM WILL ALSO PULL UNCOMMONLY FAR SOUTHWARD /ESPECIALLY
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR/...ROUNDING THE TROUGH ALONG THE OHIO RIVER
AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. FOR THURSDAY...THIS JET WILL BE WEST TO
EAST ORIENTED ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...PULLING IN DRY NW FLOW.
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SURFACE UPSLOPE FLOW COULD PRODUCE A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE
SE...BUT OTHERWISE PREDOMINATELY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. BY FRIDAY
HOWEVER...THE JET SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WESTWARD SO THAT IT BECOMES MORE
SW TO NE ORIENTED ACROSS EASTERN KY. THIS WILL PULL DEEP MOISTURE IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN AND EASTERN SEABOARD
REGION...AND BRING THE CHANCE FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN KY AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE JET WILL THEN REMAIN IN THIS POSITION THROUGH
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS EASTERN KY EACH DAY.
GIVEN THE LACK OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW OF THE
TROUGH...NO WIDESPREAD PRECIP CHANCES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF KY DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SPOTTY MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL MIX OUT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
13Z THIS MORNING. EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCU IN THE 4-6K
FEET AGL RANGE THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NW TO NNW IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN






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