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000
FXUS63 KJKL 200813
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
413 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

EARLY THIS MORNING...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION WITH RIDGING EAST
INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY WAS IN PLACE. ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS PRESENT. MEANWHILE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
WERE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WITH A WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE NEAR THE MID
MS VALLEY REGION WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE NEARING THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES EXTENDING FROM WESTERN ONTARIO INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND DOWN
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION. FURTHER NORTHWEST ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
IS MOVING ACROSS THE CANADIAN PLAINS.

THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...THE LEAD WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL WORK
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO
FALL IN THE OH VALLEY REGION WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
NORTH ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE INTERIOR NORTHWESTERN US.
DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN US...A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BE CARVED OUT BY THE TWO MAIN SHORTWAVES AND
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TROUGH BEGINNING TO MERGE INTO IT. THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW WILL TRACK WELL NORTH OF KY...BUT THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL WORK INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...WHEN IT
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO EXITING INTO VA.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS IN THE 4 TO 7KFT RANGE HAVE DEVELOPED
OVERNIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR. OUTSIDE OF THESE CLOUDS VALLEY FOG IS
LIKELY STILL PRESENT AND MAY BE DENSE AT LEAST IN SOME SPOTS ALONG THE
RIVERS AND LARGER STREAMS AND LAKES. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE LARGER
NEARER TO THE VA BORDER WHERE A DOWNSLOPE FLOW HAS BEEN PRESENT WITH
SPEEDS OF 10 MPH OR MORE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND OBSERVATIONS
SUPPORT ANY FOG BEING MUCH MORE LOCALIZED THERE. THIS FOG SHOULD
GRADUALLY BEGIN TO LIFT THROUGH SUNRISE AND THEN DISSIPATE BY A
COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. IN ADDITION...WHERE CLOUDS FORM THIS
FOG WILL TEND TO DISSIPATE AS WELL.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS THE WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE TOWARD THE
AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE 0Z NAM AND SOME OF THE NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR ALSO
DEVELOP SOME CONVECTION THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON MAINLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. MOS GUIDANCE ACROSS THESE
LOCATIONS DOES NOT HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND MODEL CONSENSUS
BLENDS GENERALLY STAYED BELOW SLIGHT AS WELL. HOWEVER...WE OPTED TO
GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE IN THESE WESTERN LOCATIONS FOR TODAY...WHICH
WAS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SURROUNDING WFOS.

THE MAIN PRECIPITATION CHANCE DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD FOR THAT MATTER WILL COME AS THE TROUGH
BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE LATE TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND THE COLD
FRONT ENTERS EASTERN KY. THIS COLD FRONT AND THE APPROACHING TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A BAND OF SCATTERED OR BETTER COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION AS IT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KY DURING THE DAYTIME.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY REACH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
CWA TOWARD DAWN...BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE CLOSER
TO THE COLD FRONT GENERALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME GUSTY
WINDS...PENDING THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE REGION AS OF 0Z MONDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO A BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE ENDING TIME
OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...WITH THE NW EXPECTED TO CLEAR
OUT BY 0Z...AND FINALLY THE SE JUST AFTER 6Z MONDAY. LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE STILL ONLY SUPPORTING MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR THE
PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT...QUICKLY DISSIPATING AS WE LOSE
DAYTIME HEATING...AND ONCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PASSED. AS
SUCH...THUNDER WAS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST PAST 0Z...AND HAS
ALSO BEEN INCLUDED BY SURROUNDING OFFICES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE EVENING. DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO YANK MENTION OF THUNDER
COMPLETELY AT 0Z...SO KEPT MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER WITH
CHANCE POPS THROUGH 3Z...WHICH CONSEQUENTLY IS ABOUT THE SAME TIME
CHANCE POPS EXIT THE REGION ANYWAYS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT...IN ADDITION TO
THE LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...WILL LEAD TO A WIDESPREAD
FOG EVENT BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...OR PERHAPS A LOW STRATUS EVENT. THE
EXTENT OF EITHER OF THESE IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. DECIDED TO
INCREASE CLOUDS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...BUT
DID NOT MENTION FOG AT THIS TIME.

AS THE FRONT QUICKLY DEPARTS SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT...KY WILL FIND
ITSELF ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PATTERN...WITH
STRONG NW FLOW BRINGING MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO THE REGION. AS
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD...DRY AND SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL DURING
THE DAY MONDAY...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT TO
THE 70 DEGREE MARK. AIRMASS MODIFICATION...NAMELY THE LESSENING OF
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT/NW FLOW AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TAKES FULL
CONTROL...WILL SLOWLY ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER WE LIKELY WON/T SEE TEMPS
HIT ABOVE THE 80 DEGREE MARK AGAIN UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE...WITH SUCH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN CONTROL...THERE WILL BE
LITTLE CONCERN FOR CLOUDS...LET ALONE PRECIP CHANCES. ALL IN ALL IT
LOOKS TO BE A GORGEOUS AUTUMN-LIKE WEEK AHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

ASIDE FROM VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING...AND THEN LIFTING AND DISSIPATING
THROUGH 13Z TO 14Z...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
DURING THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS
EXPECTED LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE FOG IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO FOLLOW ITS
TYPICAL LATE SUMMER/EARLY AUTUMN PATTERN OF DEVELOPING FIRST IN DEEP
VALLEYS AND THEN GROWING IN BREADTH AND DEPTH...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO
BEGIN TO REACH SOME RIDGES AND OPEN TERRAIN BY DAWN...SUCH AS MVFR AT
SJS IF WINDS SLACKEN AND POSSIBLY MVFR AT SME WHERE THE CURRENT
DEWPOINT DEPRESSION IS LOW BUT THERE ARE SCT CLOUDS AS WELL. THE
LARGER RECENT OBSERVED DEWPOINT DEPRESSION OF 7 AT LOZ POINTS TOWARD
ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS BEING IN THE VFR RANGE.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...JP








000
FXUS63 KJKL 200813
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
413 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

EARLY THIS MORNING...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION WITH RIDGING EAST
INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY WAS IN PLACE. ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS PRESENT. MEANWHILE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
WERE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WITH A WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE NEAR THE MID
MS VALLEY REGION WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE NEARING THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES EXTENDING FROM WESTERN ONTARIO INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND DOWN
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION. FURTHER NORTHWEST ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
IS MOVING ACROSS THE CANADIAN PLAINS.

THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...THE LEAD WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL WORK
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO
FALL IN THE OH VALLEY REGION WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
NORTH ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE INTERIOR NORTHWESTERN US.
DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN US...A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BE CARVED OUT BY THE TWO MAIN SHORTWAVES AND
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TROUGH BEGINNING TO MERGE INTO IT. THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW WILL TRACK WELL NORTH OF KY...BUT THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL WORK INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...WHEN IT
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO EXITING INTO VA.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS IN THE 4 TO 7KFT RANGE HAVE DEVELOPED
OVERNIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR. OUTSIDE OF THESE CLOUDS VALLEY FOG IS
LIKELY STILL PRESENT AND MAY BE DENSE AT LEAST IN SOME SPOTS ALONG THE
RIVERS AND LARGER STREAMS AND LAKES. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE LARGER
NEARER TO THE VA BORDER WHERE A DOWNSLOPE FLOW HAS BEEN PRESENT WITH
SPEEDS OF 10 MPH OR MORE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND OBSERVATIONS
SUPPORT ANY FOG BEING MUCH MORE LOCALIZED THERE. THIS FOG SHOULD
GRADUALLY BEGIN TO LIFT THROUGH SUNRISE AND THEN DISSIPATE BY A
COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. IN ADDITION...WHERE CLOUDS FORM THIS
FOG WILL TEND TO DISSIPATE AS WELL.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS THE WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE TOWARD THE
AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE 0Z NAM AND SOME OF THE NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR ALSO
DEVELOP SOME CONVECTION THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON MAINLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. MOS GUIDANCE ACROSS THESE
LOCATIONS DOES NOT HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND MODEL CONSENSUS
BLENDS GENERALLY STAYED BELOW SLIGHT AS WELL. HOWEVER...WE OPTED TO
GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE IN THESE WESTERN LOCATIONS FOR TODAY...WHICH
WAS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SURROUNDING WFOS.

THE MAIN PRECIPITATION CHANCE DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD FOR THAT MATTER WILL COME AS THE TROUGH
BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE LATE TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND THE COLD
FRONT ENTERS EASTERN KY. THIS COLD FRONT AND THE APPROACHING TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A BAND OF SCATTERED OR BETTER COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION AS IT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KY DURING THE DAYTIME.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY REACH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
CWA TOWARD DAWN...BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE CLOSER
TO THE COLD FRONT GENERALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME GUSTY
WINDS...PENDING THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE REGION AS OF 0Z MONDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO A BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE ENDING TIME
OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...WITH THE NW EXPECTED TO CLEAR
OUT BY 0Z...AND FINALLY THE SE JUST AFTER 6Z MONDAY. LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE STILL ONLY SUPPORTING MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR THE
PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT...QUICKLY DISSIPATING AS WE LOSE
DAYTIME HEATING...AND ONCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PASSED. AS
SUCH...THUNDER WAS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST PAST 0Z...AND HAS
ALSO BEEN INCLUDED BY SURROUNDING OFFICES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE EVENING. DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO YANK MENTION OF THUNDER
COMPLETELY AT 0Z...SO KEPT MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER WITH
CHANCE POPS THROUGH 3Z...WHICH CONSEQUENTLY IS ABOUT THE SAME TIME
CHANCE POPS EXIT THE REGION ANYWAYS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT...IN ADDITION TO
THE LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...WILL LEAD TO A WIDESPREAD
FOG EVENT BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...OR PERHAPS A LOW STRATUS EVENT. THE
EXTENT OF EITHER OF THESE IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. DECIDED TO
INCREASE CLOUDS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...BUT
DID NOT MENTION FOG AT THIS TIME.

AS THE FRONT QUICKLY DEPARTS SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT...KY WILL FIND
ITSELF ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PATTERN...WITH
STRONG NW FLOW BRINGING MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO THE REGION. AS
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD...DRY AND SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL DURING
THE DAY MONDAY...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT TO
THE 70 DEGREE MARK. AIRMASS MODIFICATION...NAMELY THE LESSENING OF
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT/NW FLOW AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TAKES FULL
CONTROL...WILL SLOWLY ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER WE LIKELY WON/T SEE TEMPS
HIT ABOVE THE 80 DEGREE MARK AGAIN UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE...WITH SUCH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN CONTROL...THERE WILL BE
LITTLE CONCERN FOR CLOUDS...LET ALONE PRECIP CHANCES. ALL IN ALL IT
LOOKS TO BE A GORGEOUS AUTUMN-LIKE WEEK AHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

ASIDE FROM VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING...AND THEN LIFTING AND DISSIPATING
THROUGH 13Z TO 14Z...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
DURING THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS
EXPECTED LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE FOG IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO FOLLOW ITS
TYPICAL LATE SUMMER/EARLY AUTUMN PATTERN OF DEVELOPING FIRST IN DEEP
VALLEYS AND THEN GROWING IN BREADTH AND DEPTH...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO
BEGIN TO REACH SOME RIDGES AND OPEN TERRAIN BY DAWN...SUCH AS MVFR AT
SJS IF WINDS SLACKEN AND POSSIBLY MVFR AT SME WHERE THE CURRENT
DEWPOINT DEPRESSION IS LOW BUT THERE ARE SCT CLOUDS AS WELL. THE
LARGER RECENT OBSERVED DEWPOINT DEPRESSION OF 7 AT LOZ POINTS TOWARD
ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS BEING IN THE VFR RANGE.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...JP







000
FXUS63 KJKL 200725
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
325 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND
TRENDS. THIS LED TO SLIGHTLY COLDER MIN T IN A COUPLE OF SPOTS ACROSS
THE NORTH...WITH THE MAIN CHANGE BEING MORE FOG IN THE GRIDS FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHEST TERRAIN WHERE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WAS WEAKER. WE HAVE RECEIVED A SPOTTER REPORT OF DENSE FOG
NEAR THE RED RIVER IN POWELL COUNTY AND 11-3.9 SAT IMAGERY SUPPORTS
VALLEY FOG AT PRESENT IN PARTS OF THE LIKING...BIG SANDY...KENTUCKY
AND RED RIVER VALLEYS. SOME OF THE FOG SHOULD AGAIN BE DENSE
GENERALLY ALONG THE LARGER CREEKS AND STREAMS AND ESPECIALLY RIVERS
AND LARGER LAKES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO RELAX A BIT
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA SO OUTSIDE OF WHERE
SOME CLOUDS DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR...VALLEY FOG SHOULD ALSO
DEVELOP THERE TOWARD DAWN.

SOME OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRAY SHOWERS
AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHES...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY ON SATURDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH...BUT IT DOES HAVE SUPPORT
FROM THE NAM...SOME OF THE RECENT HRRR RUNS AND SOME PRIOR BUT NOT
THE MOST RECENT RAP RUN. WE WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THIS POTENTIAL
FOR THE SCHEDULED MORNING FORECAST RELEASE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1027 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

USED OBSERVED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO ADJUST HOURLY GRIDS FOR
TONIGHT...BLENDING TOWARD THE PREEXISTING FORECAST BY MORNING. NO
SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES TO THE OVERALL FORECAST WERE MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 729 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

HAVE UPDATED TO ALLOW FOR A FASTER DROP IN VALLEY TEMPS THIS
EVENING. ALSO...REDUCED SKY COVER FOR MOST AREAS THIS EVENING.
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE PERSISTENT IN SHOWING CLOUDS DEVELOPING NEAR OUR
WESTERN BORDER LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...A WELL AS SOME
SHOWERS. HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR A FEW CLOUDS...BUT KEPT THE FORECAST IN
THE JKL FORECAST AREA DRY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EAST
COAST INTO THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND. STILL
A REMOTE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS PIKE COUNTY LATER THIS
EVENING...BUT CHANCES SEEM TO BE DIMINISHING WITH EVERY HOUR THAT
PASSES. THE CU JUST DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE.
REGARDLESS...UNTIL INSTABILITY WANES THIS EVENING CANNOT RULE OUT A
BRIEF POP UP SHOWER. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AGAIN TONIGHT. WITH
DEW POINTS CLIMBING HIGHER TODAY...AND CLEARING SKIES...ANOTHER NIGHT
OF FOG CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD BE A FAIRLY TYPICAL
FOG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE HIGHEST READINGS
OF THE WEEK ON SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW 80S DURING
THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY COULD MAKE IT INTO AREAS NORTH OF 1-64
PRIOR TO 12Z SUNDAY...BUT IT APPEARS THE MAIN PRECIPITATION WITH THE
FRONT SHOULD COME COME LATER ON SUNDAY. WITH CLOUDS AND SURFACE
MOISTURE INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT...A MILDER NIGHT IS ON TAP WITH
LOWS ONLY INTO THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE REGION AS OF 0Z MONDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO A BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE ENDING TIME
OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...WITH THE NW EXPECTED TO CLEAR
OUT BY 0Z...AND FINALLY THE SE JUST AFTER 6Z MONDAY. LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE STILL ONLY SUPPORTING MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR THE
PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT...QUICKLY DISSIPATING AS WE LOSE
DAYTIME HEATING...AND ONCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PASSED. AS
SUCH...THUNDER WAS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST PAST 0Z...AND HAS
ALSO BEEN INCLUDED BY SURROUNDING OFFICES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE EVENING. DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO YANK MENTION OF THUNDER
COMPLETELY AT 0Z...SO KEPT MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER WITH
CHANCE POPS THROUGH 3Z...WHICH CONSEQUENTLY IS ABOUT THE SAME TIME
CHANCE POPS EXIT THE REGION ANYWAYS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT...IN ADDITION TO
THE LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...WILL LEAD TO A WIDESPREAD
FOG EVENT BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...OR PERHAPS A LOW STRATUS EVENT. THE
EXTENT OF EITHER OF THESE IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. DECIDED TO
INCREASE CLOUDS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...BUT
DID NOT MENTION FOG AT THIS TIME.

AS THE FRONT QUICKLY DEPARTS SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT...KY WILL FIND
ITSELF ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PATTERN...WITH
STRONG NW FLOW BRINGING MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO THE REGION. AS
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD...DRY AND SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL DURING
THE DAY MONDAY...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT TO
THE 70 DEGREE MARK. AIRMASS MODIFICATION...NAMELY THE LESSENING OF
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT/NW FLOW AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TAKES FULL
CONTROL...WILL SLOWLY ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER WE LIKELY WON/T SEE TEMPS
HIT ABOVE THE 80 DEGREE MARK AGAIN UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE...WITH SUCH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN CONTROL...THERE WILL BE
LITTLE CONCERN FOR CLOUDS...LET ALONE PRECIP CHANCES. ALL IN ALL IT
LOOKS TO BE A GORGEOUS AUTUMN-LIKE WEEK AHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

ASIDE FROM VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING...AND THEN LIFTING AND DISSIPATING
THROUGH 13Z TO 14Z...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
DURING THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS
EXPECTED LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE FOG IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO FOLLOW ITS
TYPICAL LATE SUMMER/EARLY AUTUMN PATTERN OF DEVELOPING FIRST IN DEEP
VALLEYS AND THEN GROWING IN BREADTH AND DEPTH...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO
BEGIN TO REACH SOME RIDGES AND OPEN TERRAIN BY DAWN...SUCH AS MVFR AT
SJS IF WINDS SLACKEN AND POSSIBLY MVFR AT SME WHERE THE CURRENT
DEWPOINT DEPRESSION IS LOW BUT THERE ARE SCT CLOUDS AS WELL. THE
LARGER RECENT OBSERVED DEWPOINT DEPRESSION OF 7 AT LOZ POINTS TOWARD
ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS BEING IN THE VFR RANGE.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...JP







000
FXUS63 KJKL 200725
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
325 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND
TRENDS. THIS LED TO SLIGHTLY COLDER MIN T IN A COUPLE OF SPOTS ACROSS
THE NORTH...WITH THE MAIN CHANGE BEING MORE FOG IN THE GRIDS FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHEST TERRAIN WHERE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WAS WEAKER. WE HAVE RECEIVED A SPOTTER REPORT OF DENSE FOG
NEAR THE RED RIVER IN POWELL COUNTY AND 11-3.9 SAT IMAGERY SUPPORTS
VALLEY FOG AT PRESENT IN PARTS OF THE LIKING...BIG SANDY...KENTUCKY
AND RED RIVER VALLEYS. SOME OF THE FOG SHOULD AGAIN BE DENSE
GENERALLY ALONG THE LARGER CREEKS AND STREAMS AND ESPECIALLY RIVERS
AND LARGER LAKES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO RELAX A BIT
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA SO OUTSIDE OF WHERE
SOME CLOUDS DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR...VALLEY FOG SHOULD ALSO
DEVELOP THERE TOWARD DAWN.

SOME OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRAY SHOWERS
AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHES...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY ON SATURDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH...BUT IT DOES HAVE SUPPORT
FROM THE NAM...SOME OF THE RECENT HRRR RUNS AND SOME PRIOR BUT NOT
THE MOST RECENT RAP RUN. WE WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THIS POTENTIAL
FOR THE SCHEDULED MORNING FORECAST RELEASE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1027 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

USED OBSERVED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO ADJUST HOURLY GRIDS FOR
TONIGHT...BLENDING TOWARD THE PREEXISTING FORECAST BY MORNING. NO
SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES TO THE OVERALL FORECAST WERE MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 729 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

HAVE UPDATED TO ALLOW FOR A FASTER DROP IN VALLEY TEMPS THIS
EVENING. ALSO...REDUCED SKY COVER FOR MOST AREAS THIS EVENING.
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE PERSISTENT IN SHOWING CLOUDS DEVELOPING NEAR OUR
WESTERN BORDER LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...A WELL AS SOME
SHOWERS. HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR A FEW CLOUDS...BUT KEPT THE FORECAST IN
THE JKL FORECAST AREA DRY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EAST
COAST INTO THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND. STILL
A REMOTE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS PIKE COUNTY LATER THIS
EVENING...BUT CHANCES SEEM TO BE DIMINISHING WITH EVERY HOUR THAT
PASSES. THE CU JUST DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE.
REGARDLESS...UNTIL INSTABILITY WANES THIS EVENING CANNOT RULE OUT A
BRIEF POP UP SHOWER. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AGAIN TONIGHT. WITH
DEW POINTS CLIMBING HIGHER TODAY...AND CLEARING SKIES...ANOTHER NIGHT
OF FOG CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD BE A FAIRLY TYPICAL
FOG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE HIGHEST READINGS
OF THE WEEK ON SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW 80S DURING
THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY COULD MAKE IT INTO AREAS NORTH OF 1-64
PRIOR TO 12Z SUNDAY...BUT IT APPEARS THE MAIN PRECIPITATION WITH THE
FRONT SHOULD COME COME LATER ON SUNDAY. WITH CLOUDS AND SURFACE
MOISTURE INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT...A MILDER NIGHT IS ON TAP WITH
LOWS ONLY INTO THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE REGION AS OF 0Z MONDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO A BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE ENDING TIME
OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...WITH THE NW EXPECTED TO CLEAR
OUT BY 0Z...AND FINALLY THE SE JUST AFTER 6Z MONDAY. LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE STILL ONLY SUPPORTING MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR THE
PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT...QUICKLY DISSIPATING AS WE LOSE
DAYTIME HEATING...AND ONCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PASSED. AS
SUCH...THUNDER WAS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST PAST 0Z...AND HAS
ALSO BEEN INCLUDED BY SURROUNDING OFFICES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE EVENING. DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO YANK MENTION OF THUNDER
COMPLETELY AT 0Z...SO KEPT MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER WITH
CHANCE POPS THROUGH 3Z...WHICH CONSEQUENTLY IS ABOUT THE SAME TIME
CHANCE POPS EXIT THE REGION ANYWAYS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT...IN ADDITION TO
THE LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...WILL LEAD TO A WIDESPREAD
FOG EVENT BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...OR PERHAPS A LOW STRATUS EVENT. THE
EXTENT OF EITHER OF THESE IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. DECIDED TO
INCREASE CLOUDS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...BUT
DID NOT MENTION FOG AT THIS TIME.

AS THE FRONT QUICKLY DEPARTS SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT...KY WILL FIND
ITSELF ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PATTERN...WITH
STRONG NW FLOW BRINGING MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO THE REGION. AS
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD...DRY AND SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL DURING
THE DAY MONDAY...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT TO
THE 70 DEGREE MARK. AIRMASS MODIFICATION...NAMELY THE LESSENING OF
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT/NW FLOW AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TAKES FULL
CONTROL...WILL SLOWLY ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER WE LIKELY WON/T SEE TEMPS
HIT ABOVE THE 80 DEGREE MARK AGAIN UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE...WITH SUCH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN CONTROL...THERE WILL BE
LITTLE CONCERN FOR CLOUDS...LET ALONE PRECIP CHANCES. ALL IN ALL IT
LOOKS TO BE A GORGEOUS AUTUMN-LIKE WEEK AHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

ASIDE FROM VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING...AND THEN LIFTING AND DISSIPATING
THROUGH 13Z TO 14Z...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
DURING THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS
EXPECTED LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE FOG IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO FOLLOW ITS
TYPICAL LATE SUMMER/EARLY AUTUMN PATTERN OF DEVELOPING FIRST IN DEEP
VALLEYS AND THEN GROWING IN BREADTH AND DEPTH...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO
BEGIN TO REACH SOME RIDGES AND OPEN TERRAIN BY DAWN...SUCH AS MVFR AT
SJS IF WINDS SLACKEN AND POSSIBLY MVFR AT SME WHERE THE CURRENT
DEWPOINT DEPRESSION IS LOW BUT THERE ARE SCT CLOUDS AS WELL. THE
LARGER RECENT OBSERVED DEWPOINT DEPRESSION OF 7 AT LOZ POINTS TOWARD
ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS BEING IN THE VFR RANGE.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...JP








000
FXUS63 KJKL 200555 AAC
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
155 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND
TRENDS. THIS LED TO SLIGHTLY COLDER MIN T IN A COUPLE OF SPOTS ACROSS
THE NORTH...WITH THE MAIN CHANGE BEING MORE FOG IN THE GRIDS FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHEST TERRAIN WHERE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WAS WEAKER. WE HAVE RECEIVED A SPOTTER REPORT OF DENSE FOG
NEAR THE RED RIVER IN POWELL COUNTY AND 11-3.9 SAT IMAGERY SUPPORTS
VALLEY FOG AT PRESENT IN PARTS OF THE LIKING...BIG SANDY...KENTUCKY
AND RED RIVER VALLEYS. SOME OF THE FOG SHOULD AGAIN BE DENSE
GENERALLY ALONG THE LARGER CREEKS AND STREAMS AND ESPECIALLY RIVERS
AND LARGER LAKES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO RELAX A BIT
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA SO OUTSIDE OF WHERE
SOME CLOUDS DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR...VALLEY FOG SHOULD ALSO
DEVELOP THERE TOWARD DAWN.

SOME OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRAY SHOWERS
AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHES...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY ON SATURDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH...BUT IT DOES HAVE SUPPORT
FROM THE NAM...SOME OF THE RECENT HRRR RUNS AND SOME PRIOR BUT NOT
THE MOST RECENT RAP RUN. WE WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THIS POTENTIAL
FOR THE SCHEDULED MORNING FORECAST RELEASE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1027 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

USED OBSERVED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO ADJUST HOURLY GRIDS FOR
TONIGHT...BLENDING TOWARD THE PREEXISTING FORECAST BY MORNING. NO
SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES TO THE OVERALL FORECAST WERE MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 729 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

HAVE UPDATED TO ALLOW FOR A FASTER DROP IN VALLEY TEMPS THIS
EVENING. ALSO...REDUCED SKY COVER FOR MOST AREAS THIS EVENING.
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE PERSISTENT IN SHOWING CLOUDS DEVELOPING NEAR OUR
WESTERN BORDER LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...A WELL AS SOME
SHOWERS. HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR A FEW CLOUDS...BUT KEPT THE FORECAST IN
THE JKL FORECAST AREA DRY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EAST
COAST INTO THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND. STILL
A REMOTE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS PIKE COUNTY LATER THIS
EVENING...BUT CHANCES SEEM TO BE DIMINISHING WITH EVERY HOUR THAT
PASSES. THE CU JUST DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE.
REGARDLESS...UNTIL INSTABILITY WANES THIS EVENING CANNOT RULE OUT A
BRIEF POP UP SHOWER. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AGAIN TONIGHT. WITH
DEW POINTS CLIMBING HIGHER TODAY...AND CLEARING SKIES...ANOTHER NIGHT
OF FOG CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD BE A FAIRLY TYPICAL
FOG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE HIGHEST READINGS
OF THE WEEK ON SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW 80S DURING
THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY COULD MAKE IT INTO AREAS NORTH OF 1-64
PRIOR TO 12Z SUNDAY...BUT IT APPEARS THE MAIN PRECIPITATION WITH THE
FRONT SHOULD COME COME LATER ON SUNDAY. WITH CLOUDS AND SURFACE
MOISTURE INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT...A MILDER NIGHT IS ON TAP WITH
LOWS ONLY INTO THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ALL OF THE WEATHER IS AT THE FRONT END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS A
COLD FRONT IS SET TO SWEEP QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT IS NOT GREAT WITH PWATS ONLY
CREEPING UP TO ABOUT 1.5 INCHES IN A THIN RIBBON. COUPLED WITH ONLY
WEAK INSTABILITY...ANTICIPATE A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THE
BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE TO OUR SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY EVENING.
FOLLOWING THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLIDE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. COUPLED WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT...
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. THERE IS ONE POSSIBLE FLY IN THE
OINTMENT THOUGH AS FORECAST MODELS HINT THAT A WEAK UPPER LOW MAY
GET TRAPPED TO THE SOUTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE. ALL SIGNS CURRENTLY ARE
THAT ANY ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH THIS LOW WOULD STAY TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST SO WILL NOT GIVE THIS ANY PLAY IN OUR LOCAL FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

ASIDE FROM VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING...AND THEN LIFTING AND DISSIPATING
THROUGH 13Z TO 14Z...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
DURING THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS
EXPECTED LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE FOG IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO FOLLOW ITS
TYPICAL LATE SUMMER/EARLY AUTUMN PATTERN OF DEVELOPING FIRST IN DEEP
VALLEYS AND THEN GROWING IN BREADTH AND DEPTH...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO
BEGIN TO REACH SOME RIDGES AND OPEN TERRAIN BY DAWN...SUCH AS MVFR AT
SJS IF WINDS SLACKEN AND POSSIBLY MVFR AT SME WHERE THE CURRENT
DEWPOINT DEPRESSION IS LOW BUT THERE ARE SCT CLOUDS AS WELL. THE
LARGER RECENT OBSERVED DEWPOINT DEPRESSION OF 7 AT LOZ POINTS TOWARD
ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS BEING IN THE VFR RANGE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...JP







000
FXUS63 KJKL 200229
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1029 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1027 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

USED OBSERVED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO ADJUST HOURLY GRIDS FOR
TONIGHT...BLENDING TOWARD THE PREEXISTING FORECAST BY MORNING. NO
SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES TO THE OVERALL FORECAST WERE MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 729 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

HAVE UPDATED TO ALLOW FOR A FASTER DROP IN VALLEY TEMPS THIS
EVENING. ALSO...REDUCED SKY COVER FOR MOST AREAS THIS EVENING.
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE PERSISTENT IN SHOWING CLOUDS DEVELOPING NEAR OUR
WESTERN BORDER LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...A WELL AS SOME
SHOWERS. HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR A FEW CLOUDS...BUT KEPT THE FORECAST IN
THE JKL FORECAST AREA DRY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EAST
COAST INTO THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND. STILL
A REMOTE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS PIKE COUNTY LATER THIS
EVENING...BUT CHANCES SEEM TO BE DIMINISHING WITH EVERY HOUR THAT
PASSES. THE CU JUST DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE.
REGARDLESS...UNTIL INSTABILITY WANES THIS EVENING CANNOT RULE OUT A
BRIEF POP UP SHOWER. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AGAIN TONIGHT. WITH
DEW POINTS CLIMBING HIGHER TODAY...AND CLEARING SKIES...ANOTHER NIGHT
OF FOG CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD BE A FAIRLY TYPICAL
FOG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE HIGHEST READINGS
OF THE WEEK ON SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW 80S DURING
THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY COULD MAKE IT INTO AREAS NORTH OF 1-64
PRIOR TO 12Z SUNDAY...BUT IT APPEARS THE MAIN PRECIPITATION WITH THE
FRONT SHOULD COME COME LATER ON SUNDAY. WITH CLOUDS AND SURFACE
MOISTURE INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT...A MILDER NIGHT IS ON TAP WITH
LOWS ONLY INTO THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ALL OF THE WEATHER IS AT THE FRONT END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS A
COLD FRONT IS SET TO SWEEP QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT IS NOT GREAT WITH PWATS ONLY
CREEPING UP TO ABOUT 1.5 INCHES IN A THIN RIBBON. COUPLED WITH ONLY
WEAK INSTABILITY...ANTICIPATE A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THE
BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE TO OUR SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY EVENING.
FOLLOWING THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLIDE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. COUPLED WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT...
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. THERE IS ONE POSSIBLE FLY IN THE
OINTMENT THOUGH AS FORECAST MODELS HINT THAT A WEAK UPPER LOW MAY
GET TRAPPED TO THE SOUTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE. ALL SIGNS CURRENTLY ARE
THAT ANY ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH THIS LOW WOULD STAY TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST SO WILL NOT GIVE THIS ANY PLAY IN OUR LOCAL FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1029 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ASIDE FROM LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
WINDS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE PERIOD. THE FOG WILL FOLLOW ITS TYPICAL
LATE SUMMER/EARLY AUTUMN PATTERN OF DEVELOPING FIRST IN DEEP VALLEYS
AND THEN GROWING IN BREADTH AND DEPTH...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO BEGIN
TO REACH SOME RIDGES AND OPEN TERRAIN BY DAWN. MOST FOG WILL
DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...HAL







000
FXUS63 KJKL 200229
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1029 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1027 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

USED OBSERVED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO ADJUST HOURLY GRIDS FOR
TONIGHT...BLENDING TOWARD THE PREEXISTING FORECAST BY MORNING. NO
SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES TO THE OVERALL FORECAST WERE MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 729 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

HAVE UPDATED TO ALLOW FOR A FASTER DROP IN VALLEY TEMPS THIS
EVENING. ALSO...REDUCED SKY COVER FOR MOST AREAS THIS EVENING.
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE PERSISTENT IN SHOWING CLOUDS DEVELOPING NEAR OUR
WESTERN BORDER LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...A WELL AS SOME
SHOWERS. HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR A FEW CLOUDS...BUT KEPT THE FORECAST IN
THE JKL FORECAST AREA DRY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EAST
COAST INTO THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND. STILL
A REMOTE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS PIKE COUNTY LATER THIS
EVENING...BUT CHANCES SEEM TO BE DIMINISHING WITH EVERY HOUR THAT
PASSES. THE CU JUST DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE.
REGARDLESS...UNTIL INSTABILITY WANES THIS EVENING CANNOT RULE OUT A
BRIEF POP UP SHOWER. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AGAIN TONIGHT. WITH
DEW POINTS CLIMBING HIGHER TODAY...AND CLEARING SKIES...ANOTHER NIGHT
OF FOG CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD BE A FAIRLY TYPICAL
FOG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE HIGHEST READINGS
OF THE WEEK ON SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW 80S DURING
THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY COULD MAKE IT INTO AREAS NORTH OF 1-64
PRIOR TO 12Z SUNDAY...BUT IT APPEARS THE MAIN PRECIPITATION WITH THE
FRONT SHOULD COME COME LATER ON SUNDAY. WITH CLOUDS AND SURFACE
MOISTURE INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT...A MILDER NIGHT IS ON TAP WITH
LOWS ONLY INTO THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ALL OF THE WEATHER IS AT THE FRONT END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS A
COLD FRONT IS SET TO SWEEP QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT IS NOT GREAT WITH PWATS ONLY
CREEPING UP TO ABOUT 1.5 INCHES IN A THIN RIBBON. COUPLED WITH ONLY
WEAK INSTABILITY...ANTICIPATE A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THE
BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE TO OUR SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY EVENING.
FOLLOWING THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLIDE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. COUPLED WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT...
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. THERE IS ONE POSSIBLE FLY IN THE
OINTMENT THOUGH AS FORECAST MODELS HINT THAT A WEAK UPPER LOW MAY
GET TRAPPED TO THE SOUTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE. ALL SIGNS CURRENTLY ARE
THAT ANY ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH THIS LOW WOULD STAY TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST SO WILL NOT GIVE THIS ANY PLAY IN OUR LOCAL FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1029 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ASIDE FROM LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
WINDS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE PERIOD. THE FOG WILL FOLLOW ITS TYPICAL
LATE SUMMER/EARLY AUTUMN PATTERN OF DEVELOPING FIRST IN DEEP VALLEYS
AND THEN GROWING IN BREADTH AND DEPTH...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO BEGIN
TO REACH SOME RIDGES AND OPEN TERRAIN BY DAWN. MOST FOG WILL
DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...HAL








000
FXUS63 KJKL 200227
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1027 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1027 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

USED OBSERVED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO ADJUST HOURLY GRIDS FOR
TONIGHT...BLENDING TOWARD THE PREEXISTING FORECAST BY MORNING. NO
SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES TO THE OVERALL FORECAST WERE MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 729 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

HAVE UPDATED TO ALLOW FOR A FASTER DROP IN VALLEY TEMPS THIS
EVENING. ALSO...REDUCED SKY COVER FOR MOST AREAS THIS EVENING.
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE PERSISTENT IN SHOWING CLOUDS DEVELOPING NEAR OUR
WESTERN BORDER LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...A WELL AS SOME
SHOWERS. HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR A FEW CLOUDS...BUT KEPT THE FORECAST IN
THE JKL FORECAST AREA DRY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EAST
COAST INTO THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND. STILL
A REMOTE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS PIKE COUNTY LATER THIS
EVENING...BUT CHANCES SEEM TO BE DIMINISHING WITH EVERY HOUR THAT
PASSES. THE CU JUST DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE.
REGARDLESS...UNTIL INSTABILITY WANES THIS EVENING CANNOT RULE OUT A
BRIEF POP UP SHOWER. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AGAIN TONIGHT. WITH
DEW POINTS CLIMBING HIGHER TODAY...AND CLEARING SKIES...ANOTHER NIGHT
OF FOG CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD BE A FAIRLY TYPICAL
FOG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE HIGHEST READINGS
OF THE WEEK ON SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW 80S DURING
THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY COULD MAKE IT INTO AREAS NORTH OF 1-64
PRIOR TO 12Z SUNDAY...BUT IT APPEARS THE MAIN PRECIPITATION WITH THE
FRONT SHOULD COME COME LATER ON SUNDAY. WITH CLOUDS AND SURFACE
MOISTURE INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT...A MILDER NIGHT IS ON TAP WITH
LOWS ONLY INTO THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ALL OF THE WEATHER IS AT THE FRONT END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS A
COLD FRONT IS SET TO SWEEP QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT IS NOT GREAT WITH PWATS ONLY
CREEPING UP TO ABOUT 1.5 INCHES IN A THIN RIBBON. COUPLED WITH ONLY
WEAK INSTABILITY...ANTICIPATE A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THE
BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE TO OUR SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY EVENING.
FOLLOWING THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLIDE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. COUPLED WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT...
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. THERE IS ONE POSSIBLE FLY IN THE
OINTMENT THOUGH AS FORECAST MODELS HINT THAT A WEAK UPPER LOW MAY
GET TRAPPED TO THE SOUTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE. ALL SIGNS CURRENTLY ARE
THAT ANY ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH THIS LOW WOULD STAY TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST SO WILL NOT GIVE THIS ANY PLAY IN OUR LOCAL FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL YIELD ANOTHER NIGHT OF
VALLEY FOG. AT THIS TIME...MINIMAL IMPACT IS EXPECTED AT THE TAF
SITES FROM THIS FOG...BUT IF THE FOG ENDS UP BEING A BIT MORE
ROBUST...SOME IMPACTS COULD BE FELT LATE TONIGHT. ANY FOG WILL BURN
OFF BY 9 OR 10 AM SATURDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...KAS








000
FXUS63 KJKL 200227
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1027 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1027 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

USED OBSERVED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO ADJUST HOURLY GRIDS FOR
TONIGHT...BLENDING TOWARD THE PREEXISTING FORECAST BY MORNING. NO
SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES TO THE OVERALL FORECAST WERE MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 729 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

HAVE UPDATED TO ALLOW FOR A FASTER DROP IN VALLEY TEMPS THIS
EVENING. ALSO...REDUCED SKY COVER FOR MOST AREAS THIS EVENING.
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE PERSISTENT IN SHOWING CLOUDS DEVELOPING NEAR OUR
WESTERN BORDER LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...A WELL AS SOME
SHOWERS. HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR A FEW CLOUDS...BUT KEPT THE FORECAST IN
THE JKL FORECAST AREA DRY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EAST
COAST INTO THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND. STILL
A REMOTE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS PIKE COUNTY LATER THIS
EVENING...BUT CHANCES SEEM TO BE DIMINISHING WITH EVERY HOUR THAT
PASSES. THE CU JUST DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE.
REGARDLESS...UNTIL INSTABILITY WANES THIS EVENING CANNOT RULE OUT A
BRIEF POP UP SHOWER. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AGAIN TONIGHT. WITH
DEW POINTS CLIMBING HIGHER TODAY...AND CLEARING SKIES...ANOTHER NIGHT
OF FOG CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD BE A FAIRLY TYPICAL
FOG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE HIGHEST READINGS
OF THE WEEK ON SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW 80S DURING
THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY COULD MAKE IT INTO AREAS NORTH OF 1-64
PRIOR TO 12Z SUNDAY...BUT IT APPEARS THE MAIN PRECIPITATION WITH THE
FRONT SHOULD COME COME LATER ON SUNDAY. WITH CLOUDS AND SURFACE
MOISTURE INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT...A MILDER NIGHT IS ON TAP WITH
LOWS ONLY INTO THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ALL OF THE WEATHER IS AT THE FRONT END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS A
COLD FRONT IS SET TO SWEEP QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT IS NOT GREAT WITH PWATS ONLY
CREEPING UP TO ABOUT 1.5 INCHES IN A THIN RIBBON. COUPLED WITH ONLY
WEAK INSTABILITY...ANTICIPATE A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THE
BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE TO OUR SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY EVENING.
FOLLOWING THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLIDE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. COUPLED WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT...
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. THERE IS ONE POSSIBLE FLY IN THE
OINTMENT THOUGH AS FORECAST MODELS HINT THAT A WEAK UPPER LOW MAY
GET TRAPPED TO THE SOUTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE. ALL SIGNS CURRENTLY ARE
THAT ANY ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH THIS LOW WOULD STAY TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST SO WILL NOT GIVE THIS ANY PLAY IN OUR LOCAL FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL YIELD ANOTHER NIGHT OF
VALLEY FOG. AT THIS TIME...MINIMAL IMPACT IS EXPECTED AT THE TAF
SITES FROM THIS FOG...BUT IF THE FOG ENDS UP BEING A BIT MORE
ROBUST...SOME IMPACTS COULD BE FELT LATE TONIGHT. ANY FOG WILL BURN
OFF BY 9 OR 10 AM SATURDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...KAS







000
FXUS63 KJKL 192329
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
729 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 729 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

HAVE UPDATED TO ALLOW FOR A FASTER DROP IN VALLEY TEMPS THIS
EVENING. ALSO...REDUCED SKY COVER FOR MOST AREAS THIS EVENING.
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE PERSISTENT IN SHOWING CLOUDS DEVELOPING NEAR OUR
WESTERN BORDER LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...A WELL AS SOME
SHOWERS. HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR A FEW CLOUDS...BUT KEPT THE FORECAST IN
THE JKL FORECAST AREA DRY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EAST
COAST INTO THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND. STILL
A REMOTE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS PIKE COUNTY LATER THIS
EVENING...BUT CHANCES SEEM TO BE DIMINISHING WITH EVERY HOUR THAT
PASSES. THE CU JUST DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE.
REGARDLESS...UNTIL INSTABILITY WANES THIS EVENING CANNOT RULE OUT A
BRIEF POP UP SHOWER. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AGAIN TONIGHT. WITH
DEW POINTS CLIMBING HIGHER TODAY...AND CLEARING SKIES...ANOTHER NIGHT
OF FOG CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD BE A FAIRLY TYPICAL
FOG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE HIGHEST READINGS
OF THE WEEK ON SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW 80S DURING
THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY COULD MAKE IT INTO AREAS NORTH OF 1-64
PRIOR TO 12Z SUNDAY...BUT IT APPEARS THE MAIN PRECIPITATION WITH THE
FRONT SHOULD COME COME LATER ON SUNDAY. WITH CLOUDS AND SURFACE
MOISTURE INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT...A MILDER NIGHT IS ON TAP WITH
LOWS ONLY INTO THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ALL OF THE WEATHER IS AT THE FRONT END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS A
COLD FRONT IS SET TO SWEEP QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT IS NOT GREAT WITH PWATS ONLY
CREEPING UP TO ABOUT 1.5 INCHES IN A THIN RIBBON. COUPLED WITH ONLY
WEAK INSTABILITY...ANTICIPATE A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THE
BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE TO OUR SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY EVENING.
FOLLOWING THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLIDE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. COUPLED WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT...
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. THERE IS ONE POSSIBLE FLY IN THE
OINTMENT THOUGH AS FORECAST MODELS HINT THAT A WEAK UPPER LOW MAY
GET TRAPPED TO THE SOUTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE. ALL SIGNS CURRENTLY ARE
THAT ANY ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH THIS LOW WOULD STAY TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST SO WILL NOT GIVE THIS ANY PLAY IN OUR LOCAL FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL YIELD ANOTHER NIGHT OF
VALLEY FOG. AT THIS TIME...MINIMAL IMPACT IS EXPECTED AT THE TAF
SITES FROM THIS FOG...BUT IF THE FOG ENDS UP BEING A BIT MORE
ROBUST...SOME IMPACTS COULD BE FELT LATE TONIGHT. ANY FOG WILL BURN
OFF BY 9 OR 10 AM SATURDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...KAS








000
FXUS63 KJKL 191922
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
322 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EAST
COAST INTO THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND. STILL
A REMOTE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS PIKE COUNTY LATER THIS
EVENING...BUT CHANCES SEEM TO BE DIMINISHING WITH EVERY HOUR THAT
PASSES. THE CU JUST DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE.
REGARDLESS...UNTIL INSTABILITY WANES THIS EVENING CANNOT RULE OUT A
BRIEF POP UP SHOWER. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AGAIN TONIGHT. WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING HIGHER TODAY...AND CLEARING SKIES...ANOTHER NIGHT
OF FOG CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD BE A FAIRLY TYPICAL
FOG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE HIGHEST READINGS
OF THE WEEK ON SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW 80S DURING
THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY COULD MAKE IT INTO AREAS NORTH OF 1-64
PRIOR TO 12Z SUNDAY...BUT IT APPEARS THE MAIN PRECIPITATION WITH THE
FRONT SHOULD COME COME LATER ON SUNDAY. WITH CLOUDS AND SURFACE
MOISTURE INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT...A MILDER NIGHT IS ON TAP WITH
LOWS ONLY INTO THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ALL OF THE WEATHER IS AT THE FRONT END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS A
COLD FRONT IS SET TO SWEEP QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT IS NOT GREAT WITH PWATS ONLY
CREEPING UP TO ABOUT 1.5 INCHES IN A THIN RIBBON. COUPLED WITH ONLY
WEAK INSTABILITY...ANTICIPATE A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THE
BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE TO OUR SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY EVENING.
FOLLOWING THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLIDE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. COUPLED WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT...
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. THERE IS ONE POSSIBLE FLY IN THE
OINTMENT THOUGH AS FORECAST MODELS HINT THAT A WEAK UPPER LOW MAY
GET TRAPPED TO THE SOUTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE. ALL SIGNS CURRENTLY ARE
THAT ANY ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH THIS LOW WOULD STAY TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST SO WILL NOT GIVE THIS ANY PLAY IN OUR LOCAL FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL YIELD ANOTHER NIGHT OF
VALLEY FOG. AT THIS TIME...MINIMAL IMPACT IS EXPECTED AT THE TAF
SITES FROM THIS FOG...BUT IF THE FOG ENDS UP BEING A BIT MORE
ROBUST...SOME IMPACTS COULD BE FELT LATE TONIGHT. ANY FOG WILL BURN
OFF BY 9 OR 10 AM SATURDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...KAS






000
FXUS63 KJKL 191922
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
322 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EAST
COAST INTO THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND. STILL
A REMOTE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS PIKE COUNTY LATER THIS
EVENING...BUT CHANCES SEEM TO BE DIMINISHING WITH EVERY HOUR THAT
PASSES. THE CU JUST DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE.
REGARDLESS...UNTIL INSTABILITY WANES THIS EVENING CANNOT RULE OUT A
BRIEF POP UP SHOWER. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AGAIN TONIGHT. WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING HIGHER TODAY...AND CLEARING SKIES...ANOTHER NIGHT
OF FOG CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD BE A FAIRLY TYPICAL
FOG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE HIGHEST READINGS
OF THE WEEK ON SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW 80S DURING
THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY COULD MAKE IT INTO AREAS NORTH OF 1-64
PRIOR TO 12Z SUNDAY...BUT IT APPEARS THE MAIN PRECIPITATION WITH THE
FRONT SHOULD COME COME LATER ON SUNDAY. WITH CLOUDS AND SURFACE
MOISTURE INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT...A MILDER NIGHT IS ON TAP WITH
LOWS ONLY INTO THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ALL OF THE WEATHER IS AT THE FRONT END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS A
COLD FRONT IS SET TO SWEEP QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT IS NOT GREAT WITH PWATS ONLY
CREEPING UP TO ABOUT 1.5 INCHES IN A THIN RIBBON. COUPLED WITH ONLY
WEAK INSTABILITY...ANTICIPATE A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THE
BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE TO OUR SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY EVENING.
FOLLOWING THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLIDE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. COUPLED WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT...
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. THERE IS ONE POSSIBLE FLY IN THE
OINTMENT THOUGH AS FORECAST MODELS HINT THAT A WEAK UPPER LOW MAY
GET TRAPPED TO THE SOUTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE. ALL SIGNS CURRENTLY ARE
THAT ANY ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH THIS LOW WOULD STAY TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST SO WILL NOT GIVE THIS ANY PLAY IN OUR LOCAL FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL YIELD ANOTHER NIGHT OF
VALLEY FOG. AT THIS TIME...MINIMAL IMPACT IS EXPECTED AT THE TAF
SITES FROM THIS FOG...BUT IF THE FOG ENDS UP BEING A BIT MORE
ROBUST...SOME IMPACTS COULD BE FELT LATE TONIGHT. ANY FOG WILL BURN
OFF BY 9 OR 10 AM SATURDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...KAS





000
FXUS63 KJKL 191907
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
307 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EAST
COAST INTO THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND. STILL
A REMOTE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS PIKE COUNTY LATER THIS
EVENING...BUT CHANCES SEEM TO BE DIMINISHING WITH EVERY HOUR THAT
PASSES. THE CU JUST DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE.
REGARDLESS...UNTIL INSTABILITY WANES THIS EVENING CANNOT RULE OUT A
BRIEF POP UP SHOWER. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AGAIN TONIGHT. WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING HIGHER TODAY...AND CLEARING SKIES...ANOTHER NIGHT
OF FOG CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD BE A FAIRLY TYPICAL
FOG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE HIGHEST READINGS
OF THE WEEK ON SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW 80S DURING
THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY COULD MAKE IT INTO AREAS NORTH OF 1-64
PRIOR TO 12Z SUNDAY...BUT IT APPEARS THE MAIN PRECIPITATION WITH THE
FRONT SHOULD COME COME LATER ON SUNDAY. WITH CLOUDS AND SURFACE
MOISTURE INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT...A MILDER NIGHT IS ON TAP WITH
LOWS ONLY INTO THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF ON 0Z SUNDAY WITH A DEEPENING
TROUGH IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL QUICKLY
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY
MORNING...QUICKLY PUSHING LOWERING HEIGHTS INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL PUSH SE TOWARDS KY AS WELL...AND REACH THE OHIO RIVER JUST
AFTER 0Z SUNDAY. MODELS ARE FINALLY COMING INTO A MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT FOR TIMING OF THE PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT...WITH
POPS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW PART OF THE CWA AS EARLY AS 12Z
SUNDAY...THEN QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINING CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE EXITING SE OF THE REGION BETWEEN 0 AND 6Z MONDAY.
LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STILL ONLY SUPPORTING MARGINAL
INSTABILITY FOR THE PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT...THOUGH IT HAS
IMPROVED SLIGHTLY FROM RUN TO RUN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT IDEA FOR SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AROUND AND JUST AFTER 18Z...THEN
DROPPING OFF QUICKLY AS A LOW LEVEL INVERSION SETS UP AFTER 0Z
MONDAY AND WINDS QUICKLY TURN MORE NRLY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SOUTHERLY WINDS LEADING UP TO THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING ENOUGH
WAA TO KEEP TEMPS NEAR THE 80 DEGREE MARK FOR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT QUICKLY DEPARTS SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT...KY
WILL FIND ITSELF ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
PATTERN...WITH STRONG NW FLOW BRINGING MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO
THE REGION. AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD...DRY AND SUNNY SKIES WILL
PREVAIL. YET HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO
THE LOW 70S THANKS TO THIS CANADIAN AIR MASS. TUESDAY WILL BE
SIMILAR...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FINALLY MOVES IN OVERHEAD AND
LESSONS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT/STRONGEST NWRLY WINDS. AIRMASS
MODIFICATION WILL SLOWLY ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...HOWEVER WE LIKELY WON/T SEE TEMPS HIT
ABOVE THE 80 DEGREE MARK UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL YIELD ANOTHER NIGHT OF
VALLEY FOG. AT THIS TIME...MINIMAL IMPACT IS EXPECTED AT THE TAF
SITES FROM THIS FOG...BUT IF THE FOG ENDS UP BEING A BIT MORE
ROBUST...SOME IMPACTS COULD BE FELT LATE TONIGHT. ANY FOG WILL BURN
OFF BY 9 OR 10 AM SATURDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...KAS







000
FXUS63 KJKL 191907
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
307 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EAST
COAST INTO THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND. STILL
A REMOTE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS PIKE COUNTY LATER THIS
EVENING...BUT CHANCES SEEM TO BE DIMINISHING WITH EVERY HOUR THAT
PASSES. THE CU JUST DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE.
REGARDLESS...UNTIL INSTABILITY WANES THIS EVENING CANNOT RULE OUT A
BRIEF POP UP SHOWER. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AGAIN TONIGHT. WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING HIGHER TODAY...AND CLEARING SKIES...ANOTHER NIGHT
OF FOG CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD BE A FAIRLY TYPICAL
FOG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE HIGHEST READINGS
OF THE WEEK ON SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW 80S DURING
THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY COULD MAKE IT INTO AREAS NORTH OF 1-64
PRIOR TO 12Z SUNDAY...BUT IT APPEARS THE MAIN PRECIPITATION WITH THE
FRONT SHOULD COME COME LATER ON SUNDAY. WITH CLOUDS AND SURFACE
MOISTURE INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT...A MILDER NIGHT IS ON TAP WITH
LOWS ONLY INTO THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF ON 0Z SUNDAY WITH A DEEPENING
TROUGH IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL QUICKLY
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY
MORNING...QUICKLY PUSHING LOWERING HEIGHTS INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL PUSH SE TOWARDS KY AS WELL...AND REACH THE OHIO RIVER JUST
AFTER 0Z SUNDAY. MODELS ARE FINALLY COMING INTO A MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT FOR TIMING OF THE PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT...WITH
POPS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW PART OF THE CWA AS EARLY AS 12Z
SUNDAY...THEN QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINING CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE EXITING SE OF THE REGION BETWEEN 0 AND 6Z MONDAY.
LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STILL ONLY SUPPORTING MARGINAL
INSTABILITY FOR THE PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT...THOUGH IT HAS
IMPROVED SLIGHTLY FROM RUN TO RUN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT IDEA FOR SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AROUND AND JUST AFTER 18Z...THEN
DROPPING OFF QUICKLY AS A LOW LEVEL INVERSION SETS UP AFTER 0Z
MONDAY AND WINDS QUICKLY TURN MORE NRLY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SOUTHERLY WINDS LEADING UP TO THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING ENOUGH
WAA TO KEEP TEMPS NEAR THE 80 DEGREE MARK FOR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT QUICKLY DEPARTS SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT...KY
WILL FIND ITSELF ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
PATTERN...WITH STRONG NW FLOW BRINGING MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO
THE REGION. AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD...DRY AND SUNNY SKIES WILL
PREVAIL. YET HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO
THE LOW 70S THANKS TO THIS CANADIAN AIR MASS. TUESDAY WILL BE
SIMILAR...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FINALLY MOVES IN OVERHEAD AND
LESSONS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT/STRONGEST NWRLY WINDS. AIRMASS
MODIFICATION WILL SLOWLY ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...HOWEVER WE LIKELY WON/T SEE TEMPS HIT
ABOVE THE 80 DEGREE MARK UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL YIELD ANOTHER NIGHT OF
VALLEY FOG. AT THIS TIME...MINIMAL IMPACT IS EXPECTED AT THE TAF
SITES FROM THIS FOG...BUT IF THE FOG ENDS UP BEING A BIT MORE
ROBUST...SOME IMPACTS COULD BE FELT LATE TONIGHT. ANY FOG WILL BURN
OFF BY 9 OR 10 AM SATURDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...KAS








000
FXUS63 KJKL 191737
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
137 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

NO UPDATE PLANNED FOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 955 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ALL IS QUIET THIS MORNING WITH A BEAUTIFUL MORNING ONGOING. LAST OF
THE FOG SHOULD BURN OFF OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES EXCEPT TO REFINE PRECIPITATION CHANCES BASED ON LATEST HI RES
MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS WAS ONLY TO TRIM SOME AREAS OUT OF THE THREAT
FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS ON
TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
OBSERVATIONS. THIS LED TO VERY LITTLE CHANGE...JUST A FRESHENING UP
OF THE HOURLY TEMP AND DEWPOINT CURVES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES HAS LIKELY
ALREADY BEGUN TO LIFT AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND 9 AM. THE 6Z
GFS AND NAM SUGGESTED THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRAY SHOWER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN NEAR THE VA OR WV BORDER. THE MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO
INDICATE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER FROM HARLAN
COUNTY NORTHEAST TO PIKE COUNTY AND POSSIBLY INTO THE NEXT TIER OF
COUNTIES TO THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THROUGH TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE
PLAINS STATES WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION TODAY
AND INTO TONIGHT. MEANWHILE A WEAK UPPER LOW/TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WORKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC AND EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST TO NEAR
CAPE COD THIS EVENING AND THEN OFF THE NORTHEAST US COAST TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST...AN INVERTED TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND THEN SHIFT WEST AND
WEAKEN TONIGHT. TO THE EAST OF THE CREST OF THE APPALACHIANS...A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SOUTHWEST FROM THIS SFC
HIGH INTO THE APPALACHIANS GENERALLY ALONG OR JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...RATHER BRIEFLY THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE
VA BORDER.

ON SATURDAY THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE LOWER OH VALLEY AS THE RIDGE RETREATS WEST AND
BUILDS TOWARD THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A SFC COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
APPROACH THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ONCE EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG DISSIPATES...A GENERAL WARMING TREND
IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE HIGH DEPARTS TO THE EAST. SOME
MOISTURE SHOULD BE DRAWN WEST AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH LEADING TO
CU DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA FORM MIDDAY
INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS MAY BECOME DEEP ENOUGH FOR A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS BELOW THE MID LEVEL CAP. THE NAM IS GENERALLY THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. THE END OF THE
THE 5Z HRRR RUN GENERALLY KEEPS THE ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE REGION
THROUGH 20Z.

DIURNAL CU SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...BUT MODELS KEEP THE LAYER
NEAR 800 TO 850 MB RATHER MOIST TONIGHT. SOME STRATOCU NEAR THE LEVEL
WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. PATCHY VALLEY FOG SHOULD STILL
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE VA BORDER COUNTIES. MEANWHILE
DURING THE EVENING WHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS HIGHEST NEAR THE VA
BORDER AND A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH IS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EXPOSED RIDGETOPS SUCH AS THE
FLATWOODS AREA OF PIKE COUNTY...PORTIONS OF THE CREST OF PINE
MOUNTAINS AND BLACK MOUNTAINS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE LIGHTER
WINDS...WITH VALLEYS FURTHER NORTHWEST LIKELY DECOUPLED. HIGHER
ANTICIPATED DEWPOINTS...A LARGER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW CLOUDS SHOULD BRING WARMER MIN T TONIGHT. SOUTH TO
EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. OUTSIDE OF THE HIGH TERRAIN...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE
LOW TO MID 80S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF ON 0Z SUNDAY WITH A DEEPENING
TROUGH IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL QUICKLY
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY
MORNING...QUICKLY PUSHING LOWERING HEIGHTS INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL PUSH SE TOWARDS KY AS WELL...AND REACH THE OHIO RIVER JUST
AFTER 0Z SUNDAY. MODELS ARE FINALLY COMING INTO A MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT FOR TIMING OF THE PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT...WITH
POPS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW PART OF THE CWA AS EARLY AS 12Z
SUNDAY...THEN QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINING CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE EXITING SE OF THE REGION BETWEEN 0 AND 6Z MONDAY.
LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STILL ONLY SUPPORTING MARGINAL
INSTABILITY FOR THE PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT...THOUGH IT HAS
IMPROVED SLIGHTLY FROM RUN TO RUN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT IDEA FOR SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AROUND AND JUST AFTER 18Z...THEN
DROPPING OFF QUICKLY AS A LOW LEVEL INVERSION SETS UP AFTER 0Z
MONDAY AND WINDS QUICKLY TURN MORE NRLY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SOUTHERLY WINDS LEADING UP TO THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING ENOUGH
WAA TO KEEP TEMPS NEAR THE 80 DEGREE MARK FOR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT QUICKLY DEPARTS SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT...KY
WILL FIND ITSELF ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
PATTERN...WITH STRONG NW FLOW BRINGING MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO
THE REGION. AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD...DRY AND SUNNY SKIES WILL
PREVAIL. YET HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO
THE LOW 70S THANKS TO THIS CANADIAN AIR MASS. TUESDAY WILL BE
SIMILAR...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FINALLY MOVES IN OVERHEAD AND
LESSONS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT/STRONGEST NWRLY WINDS. AIRMASS
MODIFICATION WILL SLOWLY ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...HOWEVER WE LIKELY WON/T SEE TEMPS HIT
ABOVE THE 80 DEGREE MARK UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL YIELD ANOTHER NIGHT OF
VALLEY FOG. AT THIS TIME...MINIMAL IMPACT IS EXPECTED AT THE TAF
SITES FROM THIS FOG...BUT IF THE FOG ENDS UP BEING A BIT MORE
ROBUST...SOME IMPACTS COULD BE FELT LATE TONIGHT. ANY FOG WILL BURN
OFF BY 9 OR 10 AM SATURDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...KAS







000
FXUS63 KJKL 191737
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
137 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

NO UPDATE PLANNED FOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 955 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ALL IS QUIET THIS MORNING WITH A BEAUTIFUL MORNING ONGOING. LAST OF
THE FOG SHOULD BURN OFF OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES EXCEPT TO REFINE PRECIPITATION CHANCES BASED ON LATEST HI RES
MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS WAS ONLY TO TRIM SOME AREAS OUT OF THE THREAT
FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS ON
TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
OBSERVATIONS. THIS LED TO VERY LITTLE CHANGE...JUST A FRESHENING UP
OF THE HOURLY TEMP AND DEWPOINT CURVES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES HAS LIKELY
ALREADY BEGUN TO LIFT AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND 9 AM. THE 6Z
GFS AND NAM SUGGESTED THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRAY SHOWER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN NEAR THE VA OR WV BORDER. THE MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO
INDICATE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER FROM HARLAN
COUNTY NORTHEAST TO PIKE COUNTY AND POSSIBLY INTO THE NEXT TIER OF
COUNTIES TO THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THROUGH TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE
PLAINS STATES WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION TODAY
AND INTO TONIGHT. MEANWHILE A WEAK UPPER LOW/TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WORKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC AND EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST TO NEAR
CAPE COD THIS EVENING AND THEN OFF THE NORTHEAST US COAST TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST...AN INVERTED TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND THEN SHIFT WEST AND
WEAKEN TONIGHT. TO THE EAST OF THE CREST OF THE APPALACHIANS...A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SOUTHWEST FROM THIS SFC
HIGH INTO THE APPALACHIANS GENERALLY ALONG OR JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...RATHER BRIEFLY THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE
VA BORDER.

ON SATURDAY THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE LOWER OH VALLEY AS THE RIDGE RETREATS WEST AND
BUILDS TOWARD THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A SFC COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
APPROACH THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ONCE EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG DISSIPATES...A GENERAL WARMING TREND
IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE HIGH DEPARTS TO THE EAST. SOME
MOISTURE SHOULD BE DRAWN WEST AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH LEADING TO
CU DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA FORM MIDDAY
INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS MAY BECOME DEEP ENOUGH FOR A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS BELOW THE MID LEVEL CAP. THE NAM IS GENERALLY THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. THE END OF THE
THE 5Z HRRR RUN GENERALLY KEEPS THE ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE REGION
THROUGH 20Z.

DIURNAL CU SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...BUT MODELS KEEP THE LAYER
NEAR 800 TO 850 MB RATHER MOIST TONIGHT. SOME STRATOCU NEAR THE LEVEL
WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. PATCHY VALLEY FOG SHOULD STILL
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE VA BORDER COUNTIES. MEANWHILE
DURING THE EVENING WHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS HIGHEST NEAR THE VA
BORDER AND A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH IS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EXPOSED RIDGETOPS SUCH AS THE
FLATWOODS AREA OF PIKE COUNTY...PORTIONS OF THE CREST OF PINE
MOUNTAINS AND BLACK MOUNTAINS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE LIGHTER
WINDS...WITH VALLEYS FURTHER NORTHWEST LIKELY DECOUPLED. HIGHER
ANTICIPATED DEWPOINTS...A LARGER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW CLOUDS SHOULD BRING WARMER MIN T TONIGHT. SOUTH TO
EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. OUTSIDE OF THE HIGH TERRAIN...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE
LOW TO MID 80S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF ON 0Z SUNDAY WITH A DEEPENING
TROUGH IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL QUICKLY
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY
MORNING...QUICKLY PUSHING LOWERING HEIGHTS INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL PUSH SE TOWARDS KY AS WELL...AND REACH THE OHIO RIVER JUST
AFTER 0Z SUNDAY. MODELS ARE FINALLY COMING INTO A MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT FOR TIMING OF THE PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT...WITH
POPS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW PART OF THE CWA AS EARLY AS 12Z
SUNDAY...THEN QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINING CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE EXITING SE OF THE REGION BETWEEN 0 AND 6Z MONDAY.
LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STILL ONLY SUPPORTING MARGINAL
INSTABILITY FOR THE PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT...THOUGH IT HAS
IMPROVED SLIGHTLY FROM RUN TO RUN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT IDEA FOR SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AROUND AND JUST AFTER 18Z...THEN
DROPPING OFF QUICKLY AS A LOW LEVEL INVERSION SETS UP AFTER 0Z
MONDAY AND WINDS QUICKLY TURN MORE NRLY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SOUTHERLY WINDS LEADING UP TO THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING ENOUGH
WAA TO KEEP TEMPS NEAR THE 80 DEGREE MARK FOR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT QUICKLY DEPARTS SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT...KY
WILL FIND ITSELF ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
PATTERN...WITH STRONG NW FLOW BRINGING MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO
THE REGION. AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD...DRY AND SUNNY SKIES WILL
PREVAIL. YET HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO
THE LOW 70S THANKS TO THIS CANADIAN AIR MASS. TUESDAY WILL BE
SIMILAR...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FINALLY MOVES IN OVERHEAD AND
LESSONS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT/STRONGEST NWRLY WINDS. AIRMASS
MODIFICATION WILL SLOWLY ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...HOWEVER WE LIKELY WON/T SEE TEMPS HIT
ABOVE THE 80 DEGREE MARK UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL YIELD ANOTHER NIGHT OF
VALLEY FOG. AT THIS TIME...MINIMAL IMPACT IS EXPECTED AT THE TAF
SITES FROM THIS FOG...BUT IF THE FOG ENDS UP BEING A BIT MORE
ROBUST...SOME IMPACTS COULD BE FELT LATE TONIGHT. ANY FOG WILL BURN
OFF BY 9 OR 10 AM SATURDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...KAS








000
FXUS63 KJKL 191355
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
955 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ALL IS QUIET THIS MORNING WITH A BEAUTIFUL MORNING ONGOING. LAST OF
THE FOG SHOULD BURN OFF OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES EXCEPT TO REFINE PRECIPITATION CHANCES BASED ON LATEST HI RES
MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS WAS ONLY TO TRIM SOME AREAS OUT OF THE THREAT
FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS ON
TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
OBSERVATIONS. THIS LED TO VERY LITTLE CHANGE...JUST A FRESHENING UP
OF THE HOURLY TEMP AND DEWPOINT CURVES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES HAS LIKELY
ALREADY BEGUN TO LIFT AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND 9 AM. THE 6Z
GFS AND NAM SUGGESTED THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRAY SHOWER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN NEAR THE VA OR WV BORDER. THE MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO
INDICATE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER FROM HARLAN
COUNTY NORTHEAST TO PIKE COUNTY AND POSSIBLY INTO THE NEXT TIER OF
COUNTIES TO THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THROUGH TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE
PLAINS STATES WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION TODAY
AND INTO TONIGHT. MEANWHILE A WEAK UPPER LOW/TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WORKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC AND EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST TO NEAR
CAPE COD THIS EVENING AND THEN OFF THE NORTHEAST US COAST TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST...AN INVERTED TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND THEN SHIFT WEST AND
WEAKEN TONIGHT. TO THE EAST OF THE CREST OF THE APPALACHIANS...A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SOUTHWEST FROM THIS SFC
HIGH INTO THE APPALACHIANS GENERALLY ALONG OR JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...RATHER BRIEFLY THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE
VA BORDER.

ON SATURDAY THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE LOWER OH VALLEY AS THE RIDGE RETREATS WEST AND
BUILDS TOWARD THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A SFC COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
APPROACH THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ONCE EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG DISSIPATES...A GENERAL WARMING TREND
IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE HIGH DEPARTS TO THE EAST. SOME
MOISTURE SHOULD BE DRAWN WEST AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH LEADING TO
CU DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA FORM MIDDAY
INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS MAY BECOME DEEP ENOUGH FOR A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS BELOW THE MID LEVEL CAP. THE NAM IS GENERALLY THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. THE END OF THE
THE 5Z HRRR RUN GENERALLY KEEPS THE ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE REGION
THROUGH 20Z.

DIURNAL CU SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...BUT MODELS KEEP THE LAYER
NEAR 800 TO 850 MB RATHER MOIST TONIGHT. SOME STRATOCU NEAR THE LEVEL
WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. PATCHY VALLEY FOG SHOULD STILL
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE VA BORDER COUNTIES. MEANWHILE
DURING THE EVENING WHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS HIGHEST NEAR THE VA
BORDER AND A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH IS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EXPOSED RIDGETOPS SUCH AS THE
FLATWOODS AREA OF PIKE COUNTY...PORTIONS OF THE CREST OF PINE
MOUNTAINS AND BLACK MOUNTAINS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE LIGHTER
WINDS...WITH VALLEYS FURTHER NORTHWEST LIKELY DECOUPLED. HIGHER
ANTICIPATED DEWPOINTS...A LARGER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW CLOUDS SHOULD BRING WARMER MIN T TONIGHT. SOUTH TO
EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. OUTSIDE OF THE HIGH TERRAIN...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE
LOW TO MID 80S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF ON 0Z SUNDAY WITH A DEEPENING
TROUGH IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL QUICKLY
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY
MORNING...QUICKLY PUSHING LOWERING HEIGHTS INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL PUSH SE TOWARDS KY AS WELL...AND REACH THE OHIO RIVER JUST
AFTER 0Z SUNDAY. MODELS ARE FINALLY COMING INTO A MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT FOR TIMING OF THE PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT...WITH
POPS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW PART OF THE CWA AS EARLY AS 12Z
SUNDAY...THEN QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINING CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE EXITING SE OF THE REGION BETWEEN 0 AND 6Z MONDAY.
LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STILL ONLY SUPPORTING MARGINAL
INSTABILITY FOR THE PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT...THOUGH IT HAS
IMPROVED SLIGHTLY FROM RUN TO RUN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT IDEA FOR SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AROUND AND JUST AFTER 18Z...THEN
DROPPING OFF QUICKLY AS A LOW LEVEL INVERSION SETS UP AFTER 0Z
MONDAY AND WINDS QUICKLY TURN MORE NRLY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SOUTHERLY WINDS LEADING UP TO THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING ENOUGH
WAA TO KEEP TEMPS NEAR THE 80 DEGREE MARK FOR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT QUICKLY DEPARTS SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT...KY
WILL FIND ITSELF ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
PATTERN...WITH STRONG NW FLOW BRINGING MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO
THE REGION. AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD...DRY AND SUNNY SKIES WILL
PREVAIL. YET HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO
THE LOW 70S THANKS TO THIS CANADIAN AIR MASS. TUESDAY WILL BE
SIMILAR...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FINALLY MOVES IN OVERHEAD AND
LESSONS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT/STRONGEST NWRLY WINDS. AIRMASS
MODIFICATION WILL SLOWLY ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...HOWEVER WE LIKELY WON/T SEE TEMPS HIT
ABOVE THE 80 DEGREE MARK UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ASIDE FROM MAINLY VALLEY FOG LIFTING AND DISSIPATING THROUGH ABOUT 13Z...
VFR SHOULD PREVAIL DURING MOST OF THE PERIOD IN ALL LOCATIONS. THE
EXCEPTIONS TO THIS IS THE IFR OR MVFR FOG IN A FEW SPOTS INITIALLY
IMPROVING TO VFR...POSSIBLE MVFR IN ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP BETWEEN
17Z AND 23Z...AND MAINLY VALLEY FOG LATE IN THE PERIOD WHERE MVFR OR
IFR IS POSSIBLE. FOR THE FOG LATE IN THE PERIOD...SJS AND SME APPEAR
TO HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF DROPPING TO IFR AMONG THE TAF SITES.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...JP







000
FXUS63 KJKL 191355
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
955 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ALL IS QUIET THIS MORNING WITH A BEAUTIFUL MORNING ONGOING. LAST OF
THE FOG SHOULD BURN OFF OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES EXCEPT TO REFINE PRECIPITATION CHANCES BASED ON LATEST HI RES
MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS WAS ONLY TO TRIM SOME AREAS OUT OF THE THREAT
FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS ON
TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
OBSERVATIONS. THIS LED TO VERY LITTLE CHANGE...JUST A FRESHENING UP
OF THE HOURLY TEMP AND DEWPOINT CURVES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES HAS LIKELY
ALREADY BEGUN TO LIFT AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND 9 AM. THE 6Z
GFS AND NAM SUGGESTED THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRAY SHOWER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN NEAR THE VA OR WV BORDER. THE MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO
INDICATE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER FROM HARLAN
COUNTY NORTHEAST TO PIKE COUNTY AND POSSIBLY INTO THE NEXT TIER OF
COUNTIES TO THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THROUGH TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE
PLAINS STATES WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION TODAY
AND INTO TONIGHT. MEANWHILE A WEAK UPPER LOW/TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WORKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC AND EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST TO NEAR
CAPE COD THIS EVENING AND THEN OFF THE NORTHEAST US COAST TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST...AN INVERTED TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND THEN SHIFT WEST AND
WEAKEN TONIGHT. TO THE EAST OF THE CREST OF THE APPALACHIANS...A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SOUTHWEST FROM THIS SFC
HIGH INTO THE APPALACHIANS GENERALLY ALONG OR JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...RATHER BRIEFLY THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE
VA BORDER.

ON SATURDAY THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE LOWER OH VALLEY AS THE RIDGE RETREATS WEST AND
BUILDS TOWARD THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A SFC COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
APPROACH THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ONCE EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG DISSIPATES...A GENERAL WARMING TREND
IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE HIGH DEPARTS TO THE EAST. SOME
MOISTURE SHOULD BE DRAWN WEST AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH LEADING TO
CU DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA FORM MIDDAY
INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS MAY BECOME DEEP ENOUGH FOR A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS BELOW THE MID LEVEL CAP. THE NAM IS GENERALLY THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. THE END OF THE
THE 5Z HRRR RUN GENERALLY KEEPS THE ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE REGION
THROUGH 20Z.

DIURNAL CU SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...BUT MODELS KEEP THE LAYER
NEAR 800 TO 850 MB RATHER MOIST TONIGHT. SOME STRATOCU NEAR THE LEVEL
WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. PATCHY VALLEY FOG SHOULD STILL
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE VA BORDER COUNTIES. MEANWHILE
DURING THE EVENING WHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS HIGHEST NEAR THE VA
BORDER AND A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH IS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EXPOSED RIDGETOPS SUCH AS THE
FLATWOODS AREA OF PIKE COUNTY...PORTIONS OF THE CREST OF PINE
MOUNTAINS AND BLACK MOUNTAINS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE LIGHTER
WINDS...WITH VALLEYS FURTHER NORTHWEST LIKELY DECOUPLED. HIGHER
ANTICIPATED DEWPOINTS...A LARGER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW CLOUDS SHOULD BRING WARMER MIN T TONIGHT. SOUTH TO
EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. OUTSIDE OF THE HIGH TERRAIN...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE
LOW TO MID 80S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF ON 0Z SUNDAY WITH A DEEPENING
TROUGH IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL QUICKLY
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY
MORNING...QUICKLY PUSHING LOWERING HEIGHTS INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL PUSH SE TOWARDS KY AS WELL...AND REACH THE OHIO RIVER JUST
AFTER 0Z SUNDAY. MODELS ARE FINALLY COMING INTO A MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT FOR TIMING OF THE PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT...WITH
POPS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW PART OF THE CWA AS EARLY AS 12Z
SUNDAY...THEN QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINING CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE EXITING SE OF THE REGION BETWEEN 0 AND 6Z MONDAY.
LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STILL ONLY SUPPORTING MARGINAL
INSTABILITY FOR THE PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT...THOUGH IT HAS
IMPROVED SLIGHTLY FROM RUN TO RUN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT IDEA FOR SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AROUND AND JUST AFTER 18Z...THEN
DROPPING OFF QUICKLY AS A LOW LEVEL INVERSION SETS UP AFTER 0Z
MONDAY AND WINDS QUICKLY TURN MORE NRLY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SOUTHERLY WINDS LEADING UP TO THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING ENOUGH
WAA TO KEEP TEMPS NEAR THE 80 DEGREE MARK FOR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT QUICKLY DEPARTS SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT...KY
WILL FIND ITSELF ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
PATTERN...WITH STRONG NW FLOW BRINGING MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO
THE REGION. AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD...DRY AND SUNNY SKIES WILL
PREVAIL. YET HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO
THE LOW 70S THANKS TO THIS CANADIAN AIR MASS. TUESDAY WILL BE
SIMILAR...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FINALLY MOVES IN OVERHEAD AND
LESSONS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT/STRONGEST NWRLY WINDS. AIRMASS
MODIFICATION WILL SLOWLY ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...HOWEVER WE LIKELY WON/T SEE TEMPS HIT
ABOVE THE 80 DEGREE MARK UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ASIDE FROM MAINLY VALLEY FOG LIFTING AND DISSIPATING THROUGH ABOUT 13Z...
VFR SHOULD PREVAIL DURING MOST OF THE PERIOD IN ALL LOCATIONS. THE
EXCEPTIONS TO THIS IS THE IFR OR MVFR FOG IN A FEW SPOTS INITIALLY
IMPROVING TO VFR...POSSIBLE MVFR IN ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP BETWEEN
17Z AND 23Z...AND MAINLY VALLEY FOG LATE IN THE PERIOD WHERE MVFR OR
IFR IS POSSIBLE. FOR THE FOG LATE IN THE PERIOD...SJS AND SME APPEAR
TO HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF DROPPING TO IFR AMONG THE TAF SITES.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...JP








000
FXUS63 KJKL 191145 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
745 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
OBSERVATIONS. THIS LED TO VERY LITTLE CHANGE...JUST A FRESHENING UP
OF THE HOURLY TEMP AND DEWPOINT CURVES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES HAS LIKELY
ALREADY BEGUN TO LIFT AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND 9 AM. THE 6Z
GFS AND NAM SUGGESTED THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRAY SHOWER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN NEAR THE VA OR WV BORDER. THE MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO
INDICATE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER FROM HARLAN
COUNTY NORTHEAST TO PIKE COUNTY AND POSSIBLY INTO THE NEXT TIER OF
COUNTIES TO THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THROUGH TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE
PLAINS STATES WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION TODAY
AND INTO TONIGHT. MEANWHILE A WEAK UPPER LOW/TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WORKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC AND EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST TO NEAR
CAPE COD THIS EVENING AND THEN OFF THE NORTHEAST US COAST TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST...AN INVERTED TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND THEN SHIFT WEST AND
WEAKEN TONIGHT. TO THE EAST OF THE CREST OF THE APPALACHIANS...A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SOUTHWEST FROM THIS SFC
HIGH INTO THE APPALACHIANS GENERALLY ALONG OR JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...RATHER BRIEFLY THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE
VA BORDER.

ON SATURDAY THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE LOWER OH VALLEY AS THE RIDGE RETREATS WEST AND
BUILDS TOWARD THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A SFC COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
APPROACH THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ONCE EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG DISSIPATES...A GENERAL WARMING TREND
IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE HIGH DEPARTS TO THE EAST. SOME
MOISTURE SHOULD BE DRAWN WEST AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH LEADING TO
CU DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA FORM MIDDAY
INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS MAY BECOME DEEP ENOUGH FOR A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS BELOW THE MID LEVEL CAP. THE NAM IS GENERALLY THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. THE END OF THE
THE 5Z HRRR RUN GENERALLY KEEPS THE ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE REGION
THROUGH 20Z.

DIURNAL CU SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...BUT MODELS KEEP THE LAYER
NEAR 800 TO 850 MB RATHER MOIST TONIGHT. SOME STRATOCU NEAR THE LEVEL
WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. PATCHY VALLEY FOG SHOULD STILL
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE VA BORDER COUNTIES. MEANWHILE
DURING THE EVENING WHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS HIGHEST NEAR THE VA
BORDER AND A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH IS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EXPOSED RIDGETOPS SUCH AS THE
FLATWOODS AREA OF PIKE COUNTY...PORTIONS OF THE CREST OF PINE
MOUNTAINS AND BLACK MOUNTAINS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE LIGHTER
WINDS...WITH VALLEYS FURTHER NORTHWEST LIKELY DECOUPLED. HIGHER
ANTICIPATED DEWPOINTS...A LARGER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW CLOUDS SHOULD BRING WARMER MIN T TONIGHT. SOUTH TO
EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. OUTSIDE OF THE HIGH TERRAIN...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE
LOW TO MID 80S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF ON 0Z SUNDAY WITH A DEEPENING
TROUGH IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL QUICKLY
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY
MORNING...QUICKLY PUSHING LOWERING HEIGHTS INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL PUSH SE TOWARDS KY AS WELL...AND REACH THE OHIO RIVER JUST
AFTER 0Z SUNDAY. MODELS ARE FINALLY COMING INTO A MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT FOR TIMING OF THE PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT...WITH
POPS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW PART OF THE CWA AS EARLY AS 12Z
SUNDAY...THEN QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINING CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE EXITING SE OF THE REGION BETWEEN 0 AND 6Z MONDAY.
LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STILL ONLY SUPPORTING MARGINAL
INSTABILITY FOR THE PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT...THOUGH IT HAS
IMPROVED SLIGHTLY FROM RUN TO RUN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT IDEA FOR SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AROUND AND JUST AFTER 18Z...THEN
DROPPING OFF QUICKLY AS A LOW LEVEL INVERSION SETS UP AFTER 0Z
MONDAY AND WINDS QUICKLY TURN MORE NRLY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SOUTHERLY WINDS LEADING UP TO THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING ENOUGH
WAA TO KEEP TEMPS NEAR THE 80 DEGREE MARK FOR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT QUICKLY DEPARTS SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT...KY
WILL FIND ITSELF ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
PATTERN...WITH STRONG NW FLOW BRINGING MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO
THE REGION. AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD...DRY AND SUNNY SKIES WILL
PREVAIL. YET HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO
THE LOW 70S THANKS TO THIS CANADIAN AIR MASS. TUESDAY WILL BE
SIMILAR...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FINALLY MOVES IN OVERHEAD AND
LESSONS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT/STRONGEST NWRLY WINDS. AIRMASS
MODIFICATION WILL SLOWLY ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...HOWEVER WE LIKELY WON/T SEE TEMPS HIT
ABOVE THE 80 DEGREE MARK UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ASIDE FROM MAINLY VALLEY FOG LIFTING AND DISSIPATING THROUGH ABOUT 13Z...
VFR SHOULD PREVAIL DURING MOST OF THE PERIOD IN ALL LOCATIONS. THE
EXCEPTIONS TO THIS IS THE IFR OR MVFR FOG IN A FEW SPOTS INITIALLY
IMPROVING TO VFR...POSSIBLE MVFR IN ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP BETWEEN
17Z AND 23Z...AND MAINLY VALLEY FOG LATE IN THE PERIOD WHERE MVFR OR
IFR IS POSSIBLE. FOR THE FOG LATE IN THE PERIOD...SJS AND SME APPEAR
TO HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF DROPPING TO IFR AMONG THE TAF SITES.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...JP







000
FXUS63 KJKL 191145 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
745 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
OBSERVATIONS. THIS LED TO VERY LITTLE CHANGE...JUST A FRESHENING UP
OF THE HOURLY TEMP AND DEWPOINT CURVES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES HAS LIKELY
ALREADY BEGUN TO LIFT AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND 9 AM. THE 6Z
GFS AND NAM SUGGESTED THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRAY SHOWER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN NEAR THE VA OR WV BORDER. THE MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO
INDICATE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER FROM HARLAN
COUNTY NORTHEAST TO PIKE COUNTY AND POSSIBLY INTO THE NEXT TIER OF
COUNTIES TO THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THROUGH TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE
PLAINS STATES WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION TODAY
AND INTO TONIGHT. MEANWHILE A WEAK UPPER LOW/TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WORKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC AND EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST TO NEAR
CAPE COD THIS EVENING AND THEN OFF THE NORTHEAST US COAST TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST...AN INVERTED TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND THEN SHIFT WEST AND
WEAKEN TONIGHT. TO THE EAST OF THE CREST OF THE APPALACHIANS...A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SOUTHWEST FROM THIS SFC
HIGH INTO THE APPALACHIANS GENERALLY ALONG OR JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...RATHER BRIEFLY THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE
VA BORDER.

ON SATURDAY THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE LOWER OH VALLEY AS THE RIDGE RETREATS WEST AND
BUILDS TOWARD THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A SFC COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
APPROACH THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ONCE EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG DISSIPATES...A GENERAL WARMING TREND
IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE HIGH DEPARTS TO THE EAST. SOME
MOISTURE SHOULD BE DRAWN WEST AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH LEADING TO
CU DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA FORM MIDDAY
INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS MAY BECOME DEEP ENOUGH FOR A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS BELOW THE MID LEVEL CAP. THE NAM IS GENERALLY THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. THE END OF THE
THE 5Z HRRR RUN GENERALLY KEEPS THE ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE REGION
THROUGH 20Z.

DIURNAL CU SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...BUT MODELS KEEP THE LAYER
NEAR 800 TO 850 MB RATHER MOIST TONIGHT. SOME STRATOCU NEAR THE LEVEL
WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. PATCHY VALLEY FOG SHOULD STILL
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE VA BORDER COUNTIES. MEANWHILE
DURING THE EVENING WHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS HIGHEST NEAR THE VA
BORDER AND A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH IS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EXPOSED RIDGETOPS SUCH AS THE
FLATWOODS AREA OF PIKE COUNTY...PORTIONS OF THE CREST OF PINE
MOUNTAINS AND BLACK MOUNTAINS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE LIGHTER
WINDS...WITH VALLEYS FURTHER NORTHWEST LIKELY DECOUPLED. HIGHER
ANTICIPATED DEWPOINTS...A LARGER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW CLOUDS SHOULD BRING WARMER MIN T TONIGHT. SOUTH TO
EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. OUTSIDE OF THE HIGH TERRAIN...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE
LOW TO MID 80S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF ON 0Z SUNDAY WITH A DEEPENING
TROUGH IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL QUICKLY
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY
MORNING...QUICKLY PUSHING LOWERING HEIGHTS INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL PUSH SE TOWARDS KY AS WELL...AND REACH THE OHIO RIVER JUST
AFTER 0Z SUNDAY. MODELS ARE FINALLY COMING INTO A MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT FOR TIMING OF THE PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT...WITH
POPS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW PART OF THE CWA AS EARLY AS 12Z
SUNDAY...THEN QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINING CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE EXITING SE OF THE REGION BETWEEN 0 AND 6Z MONDAY.
LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STILL ONLY SUPPORTING MARGINAL
INSTABILITY FOR THE PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT...THOUGH IT HAS
IMPROVED SLIGHTLY FROM RUN TO RUN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT IDEA FOR SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AROUND AND JUST AFTER 18Z...THEN
DROPPING OFF QUICKLY AS A LOW LEVEL INVERSION SETS UP AFTER 0Z
MONDAY AND WINDS QUICKLY TURN MORE NRLY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SOUTHERLY WINDS LEADING UP TO THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING ENOUGH
WAA TO KEEP TEMPS NEAR THE 80 DEGREE MARK FOR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT QUICKLY DEPARTS SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT...KY
WILL FIND ITSELF ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
PATTERN...WITH STRONG NW FLOW BRINGING MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO
THE REGION. AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD...DRY AND SUNNY SKIES WILL
PREVAIL. YET HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO
THE LOW 70S THANKS TO THIS CANADIAN AIR MASS. TUESDAY WILL BE
SIMILAR...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FINALLY MOVES IN OVERHEAD AND
LESSONS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT/STRONGEST NWRLY WINDS. AIRMASS
MODIFICATION WILL SLOWLY ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...HOWEVER WE LIKELY WON/T SEE TEMPS HIT
ABOVE THE 80 DEGREE MARK UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ASIDE FROM MAINLY VALLEY FOG LIFTING AND DISSIPATING THROUGH ABOUT 13Z...
VFR SHOULD PREVAIL DURING MOST OF THE PERIOD IN ALL LOCATIONS. THE
EXCEPTIONS TO THIS IS THE IFR OR MVFR FOG IN A FEW SPOTS INITIALLY
IMPROVING TO VFR...POSSIBLE MVFR IN ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP BETWEEN
17Z AND 23Z...AND MAINLY VALLEY FOG LATE IN THE PERIOD WHERE MVFR OR
IFR IS POSSIBLE. FOR THE FOG LATE IN THE PERIOD...SJS AND SME APPEAR
TO HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF DROPPING TO IFR AMONG THE TAF SITES.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...JP








000
FXUS63 KJKL 190807
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
407 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THROUGH TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE
PLAINS STATES WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION TODAY
AND INTO TONIGHT. MEANWHILE A WEAK UPPER LOW/TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WORKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC AND EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST TO NEAR
CAPE COD THIS EVENING AND THEN OFF THE NORTHEAST US COAST TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST...AN INVERTED TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND THEN SHIFT WEST AND
WEAKEN TONIGHT. TO THE EAST OF THE CREST OF THE APPALACHIANS...A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SOUTHWEST FROM THIS SFC
HIGH INTO THE APPALACHIANS GENERALLY ALONG OR JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...RATHER BRIEFLY THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE
VA BORDER.

ON SATURDAY THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE LOWER OH VALLEY AS THE RIDGE RETREATS WEST AND
BUILDS TOWARD THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A SFC COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
APPROACH THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ONCE EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG DISSIPATES...A GENERAL WARMING TREND
IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE HIGH DEPARTS TO THE EAST. SOME
MOISTURE SHOULD BE DRAWN WEST AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH LEADING TO
CU DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA FORM MIDDAY
INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS MAY BECOME DEEP ENOUGH FOR A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS BELOW THE MID LEVEL CAP. THE NAM IS GENERALLY THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. THE END OF THE
THE 5Z HRRR RUN GENERALLY KEEPS THE ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE REGION
THROUGH 20Z.

DIURNAL CU SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...BUT MODELS KEEP THE LAYER
NEAR 800 TO 850 MB RATHER MOIST TONIGHT. SOME STRATOCU NEAR THE LEVEL
WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. PATCHY VALLEY FOG SHOULD STILL
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE VA BORDER COUNTIES. MEANWHILE
DURING THE EVENING WHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS HIGHEST NEAR THE VA
BORDER AND A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH IS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EXPOSED RIDGETOPS SUCH AS THE
FLATWOODS AREA OF PIKE COUNTY...PORTIONS OF THE CREST OF PINE
MOUNTAINS AND BLACK MOUNTAINS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE LIGHTER
WINDS...WITH VALLEYS FURTHER NORTHWEST LIKELY DECOUPLED. HIGHER
ANTICIPATED DEWPOINTS...A LARGER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW CLOUDS SHOULD BRING WARMER MIN T TONIGHT. SOUTH TO
EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. OUTSIDE OF THE HIGH TERRAIN...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE
LOW TO MID 80S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF ON 0Z SUNDAY WITH A DEEPENING
TROUGH IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL QUICKLY
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY
MORNING...QUICKLY PUSHING LOWERING HEIGHTS INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL PUSH SE TOWARDS KY AS WELL...AND REACH THE OHIO RIVER JUST
AFTER 0Z SUNDAY. MODELS ARE FINALLY COMING INTO A MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT FOR TIMING OF THE PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT...WITH
POPS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW PART OF THE CWA AS EARLY AS 12Z
SUNDAY...THEN QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINING CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE EXITING SE OF THE REGION BETWEEN 0 AND 6Z MONDAY.
LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STILL ONLY SUPPORTING MARGINAL
INSTABILITY FOR THE PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT...THOUGH IT HAS
IMPROVED SLIGHTLY FROM RUN TO RUN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT IDEA FOR SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AROUND AND JUST AFTER 18Z...THEN
DROPPING OFF QUICKLY AS A LOW LEVEL INVERSION SETS UP AFTER 0Z
MONDAY AND WINDS QUICKLY TURN MORE NRLY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SOUTHERLY WINDS LEADING UP TO THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING ENOUGH
WAA TO KEEP TEMPS NEAR THE 80 DEGREE MARK FOR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT QUICKLY DEPARTS SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT...KY
WILL FIND ITSELF ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
PATTERN...WITH STRONG NW FLOW BRINGING MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO
THE REGION. AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD...DRY AND SUNNY SKIES WILL
PREVAIL. YET HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO
THE LOW 70S THANKS TO THIS CANADIAN AIR MASS. TUESDAY WILL BE
SIMILAR...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FINALLY MOVES IN OVERHEAD AND
LESSONS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT/STRONGEST NWRLY WINDS. AIRMASS
MODIFICATION WILL SLOWLY ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...HOWEVER WE LIKELY WON/T SEE TEMPS HIT
ABOVE THE 80 DEGREE MARK UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ASIDE FROM GENERALLY VALLEY FOG THAT MAY LIFT ONTO SOME OF THE
ADJACENT RIDGETOP LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE BIG SANDY REGION.
SOME OF THIS FOG MAY BE PATCHY DENSE AND VI`S BELOW AIRPORT MI NS IS
POSSIBLE AT SJS. OTHERWISE...FOG SHOULD BE MVFR OR VFR AT THE TAF
SITES DURING THE 8Z TO 13Z PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF THIS VFR CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 16Z AND
22Z ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF
A LOZ TO JKL TO SJS LINE. WHERE THESE SHOWERS OCCUR...BRIEF MVFR IS
POSSIBLE.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...JP







000
FXUS63 KJKL 190807
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
407 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THROUGH TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE
PLAINS STATES WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION TODAY
AND INTO TONIGHT. MEANWHILE A WEAK UPPER LOW/TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WORKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC AND EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST TO NEAR
CAPE COD THIS EVENING AND THEN OFF THE NORTHEAST US COAST TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST...AN INVERTED TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND THEN SHIFT WEST AND
WEAKEN TONIGHT. TO THE EAST OF THE CREST OF THE APPALACHIANS...A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SOUTHWEST FROM THIS SFC
HIGH INTO THE APPALACHIANS GENERALLY ALONG OR JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...RATHER BRIEFLY THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE
VA BORDER.

ON SATURDAY THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE LOWER OH VALLEY AS THE RIDGE RETREATS WEST AND
BUILDS TOWARD THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A SFC COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
APPROACH THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ONCE EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG DISSIPATES...A GENERAL WARMING TREND
IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE HIGH DEPARTS TO THE EAST. SOME
MOISTURE SHOULD BE DRAWN WEST AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH LEADING TO
CU DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA FORM MIDDAY
INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS MAY BECOME DEEP ENOUGH FOR A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS BELOW THE MID LEVEL CAP. THE NAM IS GENERALLY THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. THE END OF THE
THE 5Z HRRR RUN GENERALLY KEEPS THE ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE REGION
THROUGH 20Z.

DIURNAL CU SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...BUT MODELS KEEP THE LAYER
NEAR 800 TO 850 MB RATHER MOIST TONIGHT. SOME STRATOCU NEAR THE LEVEL
WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. PATCHY VALLEY FOG SHOULD STILL
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE VA BORDER COUNTIES. MEANWHILE
DURING THE EVENING WHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS HIGHEST NEAR THE VA
BORDER AND A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH IS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EXPOSED RIDGETOPS SUCH AS THE
FLATWOODS AREA OF PIKE COUNTY...PORTIONS OF THE CREST OF PINE
MOUNTAINS AND BLACK MOUNTAINS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE LIGHTER
WINDS...WITH VALLEYS FURTHER NORTHWEST LIKELY DECOUPLED. HIGHER
ANTICIPATED DEWPOINTS...A LARGER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW CLOUDS SHOULD BRING WARMER MIN T TONIGHT. SOUTH TO
EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. OUTSIDE OF THE HIGH TERRAIN...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE
LOW TO MID 80S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF ON 0Z SUNDAY WITH A DEEPENING
TROUGH IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL QUICKLY
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY
MORNING...QUICKLY PUSHING LOWERING HEIGHTS INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL PUSH SE TOWARDS KY AS WELL...AND REACH THE OHIO RIVER JUST
AFTER 0Z SUNDAY. MODELS ARE FINALLY COMING INTO A MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT FOR TIMING OF THE PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT...WITH
POPS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW PART OF THE CWA AS EARLY AS 12Z
SUNDAY...THEN QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINING CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE EXITING SE OF THE REGION BETWEEN 0 AND 6Z MONDAY.
LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STILL ONLY SUPPORTING MARGINAL
INSTABILITY FOR THE PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT...THOUGH IT HAS
IMPROVED SLIGHTLY FROM RUN TO RUN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT IDEA FOR SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AROUND AND JUST AFTER 18Z...THEN
DROPPING OFF QUICKLY AS A LOW LEVEL INVERSION SETS UP AFTER 0Z
MONDAY AND WINDS QUICKLY TURN MORE NRLY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SOUTHERLY WINDS LEADING UP TO THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING ENOUGH
WAA TO KEEP TEMPS NEAR THE 80 DEGREE MARK FOR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT QUICKLY DEPARTS SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT...KY
WILL FIND ITSELF ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
PATTERN...WITH STRONG NW FLOW BRINGING MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO
THE REGION. AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD...DRY AND SUNNY SKIES WILL
PREVAIL. YET HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO
THE LOW 70S THANKS TO THIS CANADIAN AIR MASS. TUESDAY WILL BE
SIMILAR...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FINALLY MOVES IN OVERHEAD AND
LESSONS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT/STRONGEST NWRLY WINDS. AIRMASS
MODIFICATION WILL SLOWLY ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...HOWEVER WE LIKELY WON/T SEE TEMPS HIT
ABOVE THE 80 DEGREE MARK UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ASIDE FROM GENERALLY VALLEY FOG THAT MAY LIFT ONTO SOME OF THE
ADJACENT RIDGETOP LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE BIG SANDY REGION.
SOME OF THIS FOG MAY BE PATCHY DENSE AND VI`S BELOW AIRPORT MI NS IS
POSSIBLE AT SJS. OTHERWISE...FOG SHOULD BE MVFR OR VFR AT THE TAF
SITES DURING THE 8Z TO 13Z PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF THIS VFR CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 16Z AND
22Z ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF
A LOZ TO JKL TO SJS LINE. WHERE THESE SHOWERS OCCUR...BRIEF MVFR IS
POSSIBLE.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...JP








000
FXUS63 KJKL 190707
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
307 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

HOURLY GRIDS...SKY COVER...AS WELL AS WEATHER GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE AND OBSERVATION TRENDS. THIS GENERALLY
KEEPS MOST OF THE FOG OVERNIGHT ALONG OR TO THE SOUTH OF THE MTN
PARKWAY CORRIDOR. ALSO...SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS WERE RUNNING A DEGREE
OR TWO COLDER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH A COUPLE OF SPOTS
ALREADY NEAR THEIR FORECAST MINS. OPTED TO LOWER MIN T A DEGREE OR
TWO IN SOME PLACES ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST. OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WERE MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1003 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

FORECAST WAS ON TRACK. ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO WINDS BASED ON
LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 709 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SKY COVER HAS DECREASED MORE THAN WAS FORECAST AT THIS POINT...AND
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS FOR REDUCED SKY COVER TONIGHT. SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY STARTING TO SEE TEMPERATURES DROP OFF
QUICKLY...AND HAVE TRIED TO INCORPORATE THIS INTO THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURE FORECAST GRIDS FOR THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRAVERSE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SETTING UP A PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND THE
BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO WARM HEADING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
WARMER WEATHER COMBINED WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW
THE INVERSION ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY COULD AID IN A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BY ALL MEANS ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL BE VERY HIT OR MISS WITH MOST AREAS STAYING DRY. LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD SETTLE BELOW LAST NIGHTS TEMPERATURES GIVEN BETTER CLEARING
TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE A BETTER REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AS
HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW 80S
TOMORROW. GIVEN THE WARMER TEMPERATURES TOMORROW...LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL ALSO TURN A BIT MILDER AS DEW POINTS CLIMB HIGHER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF ON 0Z SUNDAY WITH A DEEPENING
TROUGH IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL QUICKLY
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY
MORNING...QUICKLY PUSHING LOWERING HEIGHTS INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL PUSH SE TOWARDS KY AS WELL...AND REACH THE OHIO RIVER JUST
AFTER 0Z SUNDAY. MODELS ARE FINALLY COMING INTO A MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT FOR TIMING OF THE PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT...WITH
POPS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW PART OF THE CWA AS EARLY AS 12Z
SUNDAY...THEN QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINING CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE EXITING SE OF THE REGION BETWEEN 0 AND 6Z MONDAY.
LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STILL ONLY SUPPORTING MARGINAL
INSTABILITY FOR THE PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT...THOUGH IT HAS
IMPROVED SLIGHTLY FROM RUN TO RUN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT IDEA FOR SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AROUND AND JUST AFTER 18Z...THEN
DROPPING OFF QUICKLY AS A LOW LEVEL INVERSION SETS UP AFTER 0Z
MONDAY AND WINDS QUICKLY TURN MORE NRLY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SOUTHERLY WINDS LEADING UP TO THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING ENOUGH
WAA TO KEEP TEMPS NEAR THE 80 DEGREE MARK FOR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT QUICKLY DEPARTS SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT...KY
WILL FIND ITSELF ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
PATTERN...WITH STRONG NW FLOW BRINGING MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO
THE REGION. AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD...DRY AND SUNNY SKIES WILL
PREVAIL. YET HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO
THE LOW 70S THANKS TO THIS CANADIAN AIR MASS. TUESDAY WILL BE
SIMILAR...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FINALLY MOVES IN OVERHEAD AND
LESSONS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT/STRONGEST NWRLY WINDS. AIRMASS
MODIFICATION WILL SLOWLY ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...HOWEVER WE LIKELY WON/T SEE TEMPS HIT
ABOVE THE 80 DEGREE MARK UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ASIDE FROM GENERALLY VALLEY FOG THAT MAY LIFT ONTO SOME OF THE
ADJACENT RIDGETOP LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE BIG SANDY REGION.
SOME OF THIS FOG MAY BE PATCHY DENSE AND VI`S BELOW AIRPORT MI NS IS
POSSIBLE AT SJS. OTHERWISE...FOG SHOULD BE MVFR OR VFR AT THE TAF
SITES DURING THE 8Z TO 13Z PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF THIS VFR CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 16Z AND
22Z ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF
A LOZ TO JKL TO SJS LINE. WHERE THESE SHOWERS OCCUR...BRIEF MVFR IS
POSSIBLE.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...JP







000
FXUS63 KJKL 190707
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
307 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

HOURLY GRIDS...SKY COVER...AS WELL AS WEATHER GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE AND OBSERVATION TRENDS. THIS GENERALLY
KEEPS MOST OF THE FOG OVERNIGHT ALONG OR TO THE SOUTH OF THE MTN
PARKWAY CORRIDOR. ALSO...SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS WERE RUNNING A DEGREE
OR TWO COLDER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH A COUPLE OF SPOTS
ALREADY NEAR THEIR FORECAST MINS. OPTED TO LOWER MIN T A DEGREE OR
TWO IN SOME PLACES ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST. OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WERE MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1003 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

FORECAST WAS ON TRACK. ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO WINDS BASED ON
LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 709 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SKY COVER HAS DECREASED MORE THAN WAS FORECAST AT THIS POINT...AND
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS FOR REDUCED SKY COVER TONIGHT. SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY STARTING TO SEE TEMPERATURES DROP OFF
QUICKLY...AND HAVE TRIED TO INCORPORATE THIS INTO THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURE FORECAST GRIDS FOR THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRAVERSE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SETTING UP A PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND THE
BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO WARM HEADING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
WARMER WEATHER COMBINED WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW
THE INVERSION ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY COULD AID IN A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BY ALL MEANS ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL BE VERY HIT OR MISS WITH MOST AREAS STAYING DRY. LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD SETTLE BELOW LAST NIGHTS TEMPERATURES GIVEN BETTER CLEARING
TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE A BETTER REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AS
HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW 80S
TOMORROW. GIVEN THE WARMER TEMPERATURES TOMORROW...LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL ALSO TURN A BIT MILDER AS DEW POINTS CLIMB HIGHER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF ON 0Z SUNDAY WITH A DEEPENING
TROUGH IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL QUICKLY
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY
MORNING...QUICKLY PUSHING LOWERING HEIGHTS INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL PUSH SE TOWARDS KY AS WELL...AND REACH THE OHIO RIVER JUST
AFTER 0Z SUNDAY. MODELS ARE FINALLY COMING INTO A MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT FOR TIMING OF THE PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT...WITH
POPS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW PART OF THE CWA AS EARLY AS 12Z
SUNDAY...THEN QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINING CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE EXITING SE OF THE REGION BETWEEN 0 AND 6Z MONDAY.
LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STILL ONLY SUPPORTING MARGINAL
INSTABILITY FOR THE PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT...THOUGH IT HAS
IMPROVED SLIGHTLY FROM RUN TO RUN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT IDEA FOR SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AROUND AND JUST AFTER 18Z...THEN
DROPPING OFF QUICKLY AS A LOW LEVEL INVERSION SETS UP AFTER 0Z
MONDAY AND WINDS QUICKLY TURN MORE NRLY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SOUTHERLY WINDS LEADING UP TO THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING ENOUGH
WAA TO KEEP TEMPS NEAR THE 80 DEGREE MARK FOR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT QUICKLY DEPARTS SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT...KY
WILL FIND ITSELF ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
PATTERN...WITH STRONG NW FLOW BRINGING MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO
THE REGION. AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD...DRY AND SUNNY SKIES WILL
PREVAIL. YET HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO
THE LOW 70S THANKS TO THIS CANADIAN AIR MASS. TUESDAY WILL BE
SIMILAR...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FINALLY MOVES IN OVERHEAD AND
LESSONS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT/STRONGEST NWRLY WINDS. AIRMASS
MODIFICATION WILL SLOWLY ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...HOWEVER WE LIKELY WON/T SEE TEMPS HIT
ABOVE THE 80 DEGREE MARK UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ASIDE FROM GENERALLY VALLEY FOG THAT MAY LIFT ONTO SOME OF THE
ADJACENT RIDGETOP LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE BIG SANDY REGION.
SOME OF THIS FOG MAY BE PATCHY DENSE AND VI`S BELOW AIRPORT MI NS IS
POSSIBLE AT SJS. OTHERWISE...FOG SHOULD BE MVFR OR VFR AT THE TAF
SITES DURING THE 8Z TO 13Z PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF THIS VFR CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 16Z AND
22Z ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF
A LOZ TO JKL TO SJS LINE. WHERE THESE SHOWERS OCCUR...BRIEF MVFR IS
POSSIBLE.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...JP








000
FXUS63 KJKL 190551 AAC
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
151 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

HOURLY GRIDS...SKY COVER...AS WELL AS WEATHER GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE AND OBSERVATION TRENDS. THIS GENERALLY
KEEPS MOST OF THE FOG OVERNIGHT ALONG OR TO THE SOUTH OF THE MTN
PARKWAY CORRIDOR. ALSO...SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS WERE RUNNING A DEGREE
OR TWO COLDER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH A COUPLE OF SPOTS
ALREADY NEAR THEIR FORECAST MINS. OPTED TO LOWER MIN T A DEGREE OR
TWO IN SOME PLACES ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST. OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WERE MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1003 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

FORECAST WAS ON TRACK. ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO WINDS BASED ON
LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 709 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SKY COVER HAS DECREASED MORE THAN WAS FORECAST AT THIS POINT...AND
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS FOR REDUCED SKY COVER TONIGHT. SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY STARTING TO SEE TEMPERATURES DROP OFF
QUICKLY...AND HAVE TRIED TO INCORPORATE THIS INTO THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURE FORECAST GRIDS FOR THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRAVERSE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SETTING UP A PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND THE
BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO WARM HEADING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
WARMER WEATHER COMBINED WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW
THE INVERSION ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY COULD AID IN A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BY ALL MEANS ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL BE VERY HIT OR MISS WITH MOST AREAS STAYING DRY. LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD SETTLE BELOW LAST NIGHTS TEMPERATURES GIVEN BETTER CLEARING
TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE A BETTER REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AS
HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW 80S
TOMORROW. GIVEN THE WARMER TEMPERATURES TOMORROW...LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL ALSO TURN A BIT MILDER AS DEW POINTS CLIMB HIGHER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND DOMINATES OUR WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH TO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG
COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY. BEHIND
IT A LARGE AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE DOWN OVER THE
REGION. MODELS DO DEPICT A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BUT THE BOUNDARY APPEARS TO WASH
OUT AS IT APPROACHES OUR AREA...AND IN A BACK DOOR FASHION. THIS
SECOND FRONTAL ZONE...OR MORE PROPERLY THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BEHIND IT ACTS MORE TO REINFORCE THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS AS THE AIR MASSES
MERGE. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE IF ANY WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND BOUNDARY OTHER THAN SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER.

FINDING IT DIFFICULT TO TALK ABOUT THE UNSETTLED WEATHER THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WHEN THE WEATHER LOOKS SO SPECTACULAR NEXT WEEK. WITH
RESPECT TO SENSIBLE WEATHER...SUNDAYS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE UNSTABLE
ENOUGH TO WARRANT THUNDER BUT ANY SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL
ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL SETTLE OVER THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND ONCE AGAIN PROVIDE A PERIOD OF
AUTUMN-LIKE WEATHER FOR OUR LOCAL AREA. IN GENERAL OUR WEATHER WILL
BE FAIR WITH PLEASANTLY WARM 70S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS AND CHILLY...
SEASONALLY APPROPRIATE 50S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. PERFECT WEATHER...
CAMPING ANYONE?

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ASIDE FROM GENERALLY VALLEY FOG THAT MAY LIFT ONTO SOME OF THE
ADJACENT RIDGETOP LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE BIG SANDY REGION.
SOME OF THIS FOG MAY BE PATCHY DENSE AND VI`S BELOW AIRPORT MI NS IS
POSSIBLE AT SJS. OTHERWISE...FOG SHOULD BE MVFR OR VFR AT THE TAF
SITES DURING THE 8Z TO 13Z PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF THIS VFR CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 16Z AND
22Z ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF
A LOZ TO JKL TO SJS LINE. WHERE THESE SHOWERS OCCUR...BRIEF MVFR IS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...JP








000
FXUS63 KJKL 190551 AAC
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
151 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

HOURLY GRIDS...SKY COVER...AS WELL AS WEATHER GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE AND OBSERVATION TRENDS. THIS GENERALLY
KEEPS MOST OF THE FOG OVERNIGHT ALONG OR TO THE SOUTH OF THE MTN
PARKWAY CORRIDOR. ALSO...SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS WERE RUNNING A DEGREE
OR TWO COLDER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH A COUPLE OF SPOTS
ALREADY NEAR THEIR FORECAST MINS. OPTED TO LOWER MIN T A DEGREE OR
TWO IN SOME PLACES ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST. OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WERE MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1003 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

FORECAST WAS ON TRACK. ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO WINDS BASED ON
LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 709 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SKY COVER HAS DECREASED MORE THAN WAS FORECAST AT THIS POINT...AND
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS FOR REDUCED SKY COVER TONIGHT. SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY STARTING TO SEE TEMPERATURES DROP OFF
QUICKLY...AND HAVE TRIED TO INCORPORATE THIS INTO THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURE FORECAST GRIDS FOR THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRAVERSE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SETTING UP A PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND THE
BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO WARM HEADING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
WARMER WEATHER COMBINED WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW
THE INVERSION ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY COULD AID IN A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BY ALL MEANS ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL BE VERY HIT OR MISS WITH MOST AREAS STAYING DRY. LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD SETTLE BELOW LAST NIGHTS TEMPERATURES GIVEN BETTER CLEARING
TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE A BETTER REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AS
HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW 80S
TOMORROW. GIVEN THE WARMER TEMPERATURES TOMORROW...LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL ALSO TURN A BIT MILDER AS DEW POINTS CLIMB HIGHER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND DOMINATES OUR WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH TO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG
COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY. BEHIND
IT A LARGE AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE DOWN OVER THE
REGION. MODELS DO DEPICT A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BUT THE BOUNDARY APPEARS TO WASH
OUT AS IT APPROACHES OUR AREA...AND IN A BACK DOOR FASHION. THIS
SECOND FRONTAL ZONE...OR MORE PROPERLY THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BEHIND IT ACTS MORE TO REINFORCE THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS AS THE AIR MASSES
MERGE. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE IF ANY WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND BOUNDARY OTHER THAN SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER.

FINDING IT DIFFICULT TO TALK ABOUT THE UNSETTLED WEATHER THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WHEN THE WEATHER LOOKS SO SPECTACULAR NEXT WEEK. WITH
RESPECT TO SENSIBLE WEATHER...SUNDAYS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE UNSTABLE
ENOUGH TO WARRANT THUNDER BUT ANY SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL
ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL SETTLE OVER THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND ONCE AGAIN PROVIDE A PERIOD OF
AUTUMN-LIKE WEATHER FOR OUR LOCAL AREA. IN GENERAL OUR WEATHER WILL
BE FAIR WITH PLEASANTLY WARM 70S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS AND CHILLY...
SEASONALLY APPROPRIATE 50S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. PERFECT WEATHER...
CAMPING ANYONE?

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ASIDE FROM GENERALLY VALLEY FOG THAT MAY LIFT ONTO SOME OF THE
ADJACENT RIDGETOP LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE BIG SANDY REGION.
SOME OF THIS FOG MAY BE PATCHY DENSE AND VI`S BELOW AIRPORT MI NS IS
POSSIBLE AT SJS. OTHERWISE...FOG SHOULD BE MVFR OR VFR AT THE TAF
SITES DURING THE 8Z TO 13Z PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF THIS VFR CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 16Z AND
22Z ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF
A LOZ TO JKL TO SJS LINE. WHERE THESE SHOWERS OCCUR...BRIEF MVFR IS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...JP







000
FXUS63 KJKL 190203
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1003 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1003 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

FORECAST WAS ON TRACK. ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO WINDS BASED ON
LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 709 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SKY COVER HAS DECREASED MORE THAN WAS FORECAST AT THIS POINT...AND
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS FOR REDUCED SKY COVER TONIGHT. SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY STARTING TO SEE TEMPERATURES DROP OFF
QUICKLY...AND HAVE TRIED TO INCORPORATE THIS INTO THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURE FORECAST GRIDS FOR THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRAVERSE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SETTING UP A PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND THE
BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO WARM HEADING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
WARMER WEATHER COMBINED WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW
THE INVERSION ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY COULD AID IN A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BY ALL MEANS ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL BE VERY HIT OR MISS WITH MOST AREAS STAYING DRY. LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD SETTLE BELOW LAST NIGHTS TEMPERATURES GIVEN BETTER CLEARING
TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE A BETTER REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AS
HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW 80S
TOMORROW. GIVEN THE WARMER TEMPERATURES TOMORROW...LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL ALSO TURN A BIT MILDER AS DEW POINTS CLIMB HIGHER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND DOMINATES OUR WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH TO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG
COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY. BEHIND
IT A LARGE AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE DOWN OVER THE
REGION. MODELS DO DEPICT A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BUT THE BOUNDARY APPEARS TO WASH
OUT AS IT APPROACHES OUR AREA...AND IN A BACK DOOR FASHION. THIS
SECOND FRONTAL ZONE...OR MORE PROPERLY THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BEHIND IT ACTS MORE TO REINFORCE THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS AS THE AIR MASSES
MERGE. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE IF ANY WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND BOUNDARY OTHER THAN SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER.

FINDING IT DIFFICULT TO TALK ABOUT THE UNSETTLED WEATHER THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WHEN THE WEATHER LOOKS SO SPECTACULAR NEXT WEEK. WITH
RESPECT TO SENSIBLE WEATHER...SUNDAYS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE UNSTABLE
ENOUGH TO WARRANT THUNDER BUT ANY SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL
ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL SETTLE OVER THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND ONCE AGAIN PROVIDE A PERIOD OF
AUTUMN-LIKE WEATHER FOR OUR LOCAL AREA. IN GENERAL OUR WEATHER WILL
BE FAIR WITH PLEASANTLY WARM 70S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS AND CHILLY...
SEASONALLY APPROPRIATE 50S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. PERFECT WEATHER...
CAMPING ANYONE?

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 709 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

ASIDE FROM LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
WINDS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE PERIOD. THE FOG WILL FOLLOW ITS TYPICAL
LATE SUMMER/EARLY AUTUMN PATTERN OF DEVELOPING FIRST IN DEEP VALLEYS
AND THEN GROWING IN BREADTH AND DEPTH...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO BEGIN
TO REACH SOME RIDGES AND OPEN TERRAIN BY DAWN. MOST FOG WILL
DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...HAL








000
FXUS63 KJKL 190203
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1003 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1003 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

FORECAST WAS ON TRACK. ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO WINDS BASED ON
LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 709 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SKY COVER HAS DECREASED MORE THAN WAS FORECAST AT THIS POINT...AND
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS FOR REDUCED SKY COVER TONIGHT. SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY STARTING TO SEE TEMPERATURES DROP OFF
QUICKLY...AND HAVE TRIED TO INCORPORATE THIS INTO THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURE FORECAST GRIDS FOR THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRAVERSE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SETTING UP A PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND THE
BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO WARM HEADING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
WARMER WEATHER COMBINED WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW
THE INVERSION ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY COULD AID IN A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BY ALL MEANS ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL BE VERY HIT OR MISS WITH MOST AREAS STAYING DRY. LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD SETTLE BELOW LAST NIGHTS TEMPERATURES GIVEN BETTER CLEARING
TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE A BETTER REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AS
HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW 80S
TOMORROW. GIVEN THE WARMER TEMPERATURES TOMORROW...LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL ALSO TURN A BIT MILDER AS DEW POINTS CLIMB HIGHER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND DOMINATES OUR WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH TO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG
COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY. BEHIND
IT A LARGE AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE DOWN OVER THE
REGION. MODELS DO DEPICT A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BUT THE BOUNDARY APPEARS TO WASH
OUT AS IT APPROACHES OUR AREA...AND IN A BACK DOOR FASHION. THIS
SECOND FRONTAL ZONE...OR MORE PROPERLY THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BEHIND IT ACTS MORE TO REINFORCE THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS AS THE AIR MASSES
MERGE. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE IF ANY WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND BOUNDARY OTHER THAN SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER.

FINDING IT DIFFICULT TO TALK ABOUT THE UNSETTLED WEATHER THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WHEN THE WEATHER LOOKS SO SPECTACULAR NEXT WEEK. WITH
RESPECT TO SENSIBLE WEATHER...SUNDAYS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE UNSTABLE
ENOUGH TO WARRANT THUNDER BUT ANY SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL
ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL SETTLE OVER THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND ONCE AGAIN PROVIDE A PERIOD OF
AUTUMN-LIKE WEATHER FOR OUR LOCAL AREA. IN GENERAL OUR WEATHER WILL
BE FAIR WITH PLEASANTLY WARM 70S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS AND CHILLY...
SEASONALLY APPROPRIATE 50S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. PERFECT WEATHER...
CAMPING ANYONE?

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 709 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

ASIDE FROM LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
WINDS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE PERIOD. THE FOG WILL FOLLOW ITS TYPICAL
LATE SUMMER/EARLY AUTUMN PATTERN OF DEVELOPING FIRST IN DEEP VALLEYS
AND THEN GROWING IN BREADTH AND DEPTH...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO BEGIN
TO REACH SOME RIDGES AND OPEN TERRAIN BY DAWN. MOST FOG WILL
DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...HAL









000
FXUS63 KJKL 182309
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
709 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 709 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SKY COVER HAS DECREASED MORE THAN WAS FORECAST AT THIS POINT...AND
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS FOR REDUCED SKY COVER TONIGHT. SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY STARTING TO SEE TEMPERATURES DROP OFF
QUICKLY...AND HAVE TRIED TO INCORPORATE THIS INTO THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURE FORECAST GRIDS FOR THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRAVERSE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SETTING UP A PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND THE
BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO WARM HEADING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
WARMER WEATHER COMBINED WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW
THE INVERSION ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY COULD AID IN A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BY ALL MEANS ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL BE VERY HIT OR MISS WITH MOST AREAS STAYING DRY. LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD SETTLE BELOW LAST NIGHTS TEMPERATURES GIVEN BETTER CLEARING
TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE A BETTER REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AS
HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW 80S
TOMORROW. GIVEN THE WARMER TEMPERATURES TOMORROW...LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL ALSO TURN A BIT MILDER AS DEW POINTS CLIMB HIGHER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND DOMINATES OUR WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH TO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG
COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY. BEHIND
IT A LARGE AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE DOWN OVER THE
REGION. MODELS DO DEPICT A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BUT THE BOUNDARY APPEARS TO WASH
OUT AS IT APPROACHES OUR AREA...AND IN A BACK DOOR FASHION. THIS
SECOND FRONTAL ZONE...OR MORE PROPERLY THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BEHIND IT ACTS MORE TO REINFORCE THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS AS THE AIR MASSES
MERGE. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE IF ANY WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND BOUNDARY OTHER THAN SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER.

FINDING IT DIFFICULT TO TALK ABOUT THE UNSETTLED WEATHER THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WHEN THE WEATHER LOOKS SO SPECTACULAR NEXT WEEK. WITH
RESPECT TO SENSIBLE WEATHER...SUNDAYS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE UNSTABLE
ENOUGH TO WARRANT THUNDER BUT ANY SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL
ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL SETTLE OVER THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND ONCE AGAIN PROVIDE A PERIOD OF
AUTUMN-LIKE WEATHER FOR OUR LOCAL AREA. IN GENERAL OUR WEATHER WILL
BE FAIR WITH PLEASANTLY WARM 70S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS AND CHILLY...
SEASONALLY APPROPRIATE 50S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. PERFECT WEATHER...
CAMPING ANYONE?

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 709 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

ASIDE FROM LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
WINDS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE PERIOD. THE FOG WILL FOLLOW ITS TYPICAL
LATE SUMMER/EARLY AUTUMN PATTERN OF DEVELOPING FIRST IN DEEP VALLEYS
AND THEN GROWING IN BREADTH AND DEPTH...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO BEGIN
TO REACH SOME RIDGES AND OPEN TERRAIN BY DAWN. MOST FOG WILL
DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...HAL







000
FXUS63 KJKL 182309
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
709 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 709 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SKY COVER HAS DECREASED MORE THAN WAS FORECAST AT THIS POINT...AND
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS FOR REDUCED SKY COVER TONIGHT. SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY STARTING TO SEE TEMPERATURES DROP OFF
QUICKLY...AND HAVE TRIED TO INCORPORATE THIS INTO THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURE FORECAST GRIDS FOR THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRAVERSE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SETTING UP A PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND THE
BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO WARM HEADING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
WARMER WEATHER COMBINED WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW
THE INVERSION ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY COULD AID IN A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BY ALL MEANS ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL BE VERY HIT OR MISS WITH MOST AREAS STAYING DRY. LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD SETTLE BELOW LAST NIGHTS TEMPERATURES GIVEN BETTER CLEARING
TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE A BETTER REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AS
HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW 80S
TOMORROW. GIVEN THE WARMER TEMPERATURES TOMORROW...LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL ALSO TURN A BIT MILDER AS DEW POINTS CLIMB HIGHER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND DOMINATES OUR WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH TO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG
COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY. BEHIND
IT A LARGE AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE DOWN OVER THE
REGION. MODELS DO DEPICT A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BUT THE BOUNDARY APPEARS TO WASH
OUT AS IT APPROACHES OUR AREA...AND IN A BACK DOOR FASHION. THIS
SECOND FRONTAL ZONE...OR MORE PROPERLY THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BEHIND IT ACTS MORE TO REINFORCE THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS AS THE AIR MASSES
MERGE. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE IF ANY WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND BOUNDARY OTHER THAN SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER.

FINDING IT DIFFICULT TO TALK ABOUT THE UNSETTLED WEATHER THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WHEN THE WEATHER LOOKS SO SPECTACULAR NEXT WEEK. WITH
RESPECT TO SENSIBLE WEATHER...SUNDAYS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE UNSTABLE
ENOUGH TO WARRANT THUNDER BUT ANY SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL
ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL SETTLE OVER THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND ONCE AGAIN PROVIDE A PERIOD OF
AUTUMN-LIKE WEATHER FOR OUR LOCAL AREA. IN GENERAL OUR WEATHER WILL
BE FAIR WITH PLEASANTLY WARM 70S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS AND CHILLY...
SEASONALLY APPROPRIATE 50S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. PERFECT WEATHER...
CAMPING ANYONE?

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 709 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

ASIDE FROM LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
WINDS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE PERIOD. THE FOG WILL FOLLOW ITS TYPICAL
LATE SUMMER/EARLY AUTUMN PATTERN OF DEVELOPING FIRST IN DEEP VALLEYS
AND THEN GROWING IN BREADTH AND DEPTH...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO BEGIN
TO REACH SOME RIDGES AND OPEN TERRAIN BY DAWN. MOST FOG WILL
DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...HAL








000
FXUS63 KJKL 181853
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
253 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRAVERSE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SETTING UP A PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND THE
BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO WARM HEADING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
WARMER WEATHER COMBINED WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW
THE INVERSION ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY COULD AID IN A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BY ALL MEANS ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL BE VERY HIT OR MISS WITH MOST AREAS STAYING DRY. LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD SETTLE BELOW LAST NIGHTS TEMPERATURES GIVEN BETTER CLEARING
TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE A BETTER REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AS
HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW 80S
TOMORROW. GIVEN THE WARMER TEMPERATURES TOMORROW...LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL ALSO TURN A BIT MILDER AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB HIGHER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND DOMINATES OUR WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH TO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG
COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY. BEHIND
IT A LARGE AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE DOWN OVER THE
REGION. MODELS DO DEPICT A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BUT THE BOUNDARY APPEARS TO WASH
OUT AS IT APPROACHES OUR AREA...AND IN A BACK DOOR FASHION. THIS
SECOND FRONTAL ZONE...OR MORE PROPERLY THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BEHIND IT ACTS MORE TO REINFORCE THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS AS THE AIR MASSES
MERGE. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE IF ANY WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND BOUNDARY OTHER THAN SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER.

FINDING IT DIFFICULT TO TALK ABOUT THE UNSETTLED WEATHER THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WHEN THE WEATHER LOOKS SO SPECTACULAR NEXT WEEK. WITH
RESPECT TO SENSIBLE WEATHER...SUNDAYS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE UNSTABLE
ENOUGH TO WARRANT THUNDER BUT ANY SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL
ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL SETTLE OVER THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND ONCE AGAIN PROVIDE A PERIOD OF
AUTUMN-LIKE WEATHER FOR OUR LOCAL AREA. IN GENERAL OUR WEATHER WILL
BE FAIR WITH PLEASANTLY WARM 70S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS AND CHILLY...
SEASONALLY APPROPRIATE 50S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. PERFECT WEATHER...
CAMPING ANYONE?

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD INTO TONIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...MORE FOG IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT. THIS TIME AROUND...FOG
SHOULD BE MORE CONFINED TO THE VALLEYS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME FOG
CREEPING ONTO A FEW OF THE RIDGES. FOG WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...KAS







000
FXUS63 KJKL 181853
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
253 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRAVERSE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SETTING UP A PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND THE
BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO WARM HEADING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
WARMER WEATHER COMBINED WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW
THE INVERSION ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY COULD AID IN A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BY ALL MEANS ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL BE VERY HIT OR MISS WITH MOST AREAS STAYING DRY. LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD SETTLE BELOW LAST NIGHTS TEMPERATURES GIVEN BETTER CLEARING
TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE A BETTER REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AS
HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW 80S
TOMORROW. GIVEN THE WARMER TEMPERATURES TOMORROW...LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL ALSO TURN A BIT MILDER AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB HIGHER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND DOMINATES OUR WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH TO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG
COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY. BEHIND
IT A LARGE AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE DOWN OVER THE
REGION. MODELS DO DEPICT A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BUT THE BOUNDARY APPEARS TO WASH
OUT AS IT APPROACHES OUR AREA...AND IN A BACK DOOR FASHION. THIS
SECOND FRONTAL ZONE...OR MORE PROPERLY THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BEHIND IT ACTS MORE TO REINFORCE THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS AS THE AIR MASSES
MERGE. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE IF ANY WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND BOUNDARY OTHER THAN SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER.

FINDING IT DIFFICULT TO TALK ABOUT THE UNSETTLED WEATHER THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WHEN THE WEATHER LOOKS SO SPECTACULAR NEXT WEEK. WITH
RESPECT TO SENSIBLE WEATHER...SUNDAYS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE UNSTABLE
ENOUGH TO WARRANT THUNDER BUT ANY SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL
ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL SETTLE OVER THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND ONCE AGAIN PROVIDE A PERIOD OF
AUTUMN-LIKE WEATHER FOR OUR LOCAL AREA. IN GENERAL OUR WEATHER WILL
BE FAIR WITH PLEASANTLY WARM 70S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS AND CHILLY...
SEASONALLY APPROPRIATE 50S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. PERFECT WEATHER...
CAMPING ANYONE?

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD INTO TONIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...MORE FOG IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT. THIS TIME AROUND...FOG
SHOULD BE MORE CONFINED TO THE VALLEYS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME FOG
CREEPING ONTO A FEW OF THE RIDGES. FOG WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...KAS








000
FXUS63 KJKL 181741
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
141 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

AS EXPECTED TEMPERATURES EVEN IN THE EAST HAVE CAUGHT UP TO THE
EXPECTED DIURNAL CURVE TODAY. ALL IS QUIET OUT THERE IS AFTERNOON
WITH A PLEASANT AFTERNOON UNFOLDING. NO UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1132 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

UPDATED TO REMOVE THE LAST OF THE FOG AS IT IS JUST NOW FINISHING UP
BURNING OFF ACROSS SOME OF OUR EASTERN AREAS. THIS HAS SLOWED DOWN
THE TEMPERATURE RISE THIS MORNING SOME...BUT WE SHOULD NOT HAVE A
PROBLEM CATCHING BACK UP WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...OUTSIDE OF THESE TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURES...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE SPRINKLES AND STRAY LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SINCE A LITTLE BEFORE SUNRISE ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME DENSE FOG IS STILL OCCURRING ON A COUPLE OF RIDGETOP
LOCATIONS...MAINLY IN THE BIG SANDY REGION. OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL
CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH
CU DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. HOURLY GRINDS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. AN UPDATED ZFP IS
ALREADY OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO NEAR THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION
THIS MORNING. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS BROUGHT SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AND BANDS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE COMMONWEALTH. THESE BANDS OF
CLOUDS DO HAVE SOME THIN SPOTS AND HOLES IN THEM. THE MOST WIDESPREAD
MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE NEAR THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR. IN FACT...SOME
WEAK RETURNS ARE WORKING ACROSS THE SW PART OF THE CWA NEARER TO THE
TN BORDER. NO MEASURABLE RAIN HAS BEEN OBSERVED SO FAR WITH THIS. IN
THE VERY NEAR TERM WE HAVE OPTED TO JUST INCLUDE SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES FROM MCCREARY EAST INTO HARLAN COUNTY. THE ARRIVAL
OF THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAS AT LEAST TEMPORARILY LED TO IMPROVED VIS
IN THE FOG IN MOST AREAS PER RECENT OBSERVATIONS OTHER THAN KI35 AND
KPBX AND SOME OF THE BIG SANDY REGION WHERE THE FOG HAS BEEN LOCALLY
DENSE. THE MID CLOUDS MOVING OVERHEAD SHOULD LEAD TO IMPROVEMENTS
THERE AS WELL OTHER THAN IN BREAKS OR HOLES IN THE CLOUDS THROUGH
DAWN.

BEHIND THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO WORK ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE NEAR 700 MB SHOULD ALSO DECREASE BUT
THE LAYER BETWEEN 850 MB AND 750 MB SHOULD STILL REMAIN RATHER MOIST.
SOME SHALLOW DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS LAYER FROM
MID DAY INTO THE AFTERNOON...AS DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN...
ESPECIALLY ALOFT...BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE. 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE LOWER OH
VALLEY FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS REGIONS. A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION BETWEEN 800 MB AND 700 MB SHOULD RESULT AND IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

AT THE SFC...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
ONTARIO WILL BUILD INTO THE OH VALLEY AND NORTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. FOG SHOULD DEVELOP TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN VALLEY LOCATIONS UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES.

AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH INTO EASTERN KY
LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THE INVERTED TROUGH SHOULD
WEAKEN AND GRADUALLY SHIFT WEST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS
INVERTED TROUGH SHOULD DRAW ENOUGH MOISTURE WEST ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS FOR SOME MOSTLY RATHER SHALLOW CU DEVELOPMENT BELOW THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ON FRI FROM MIDDAY INTO THE EVENING. SOME OF
THIS COULD BECOME DEEP ENOUGH FOR A FEW SPRINKLES OR EVEN A STRAY
SHOWER OR TWO NEAR THE VA BORDER. FOR NOW...WE HAVE CONTINUED WITH A
DRY FORECAST AS MOS GUIDANCE GENERALLY HAS 10 PERCENT OR LOWER POPS.
HOWEVER...SEVERAL OF THE 0Z MODELS DO HAVE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
NEAR THE VA BORDER ON FRI AFTERNOON. THE MODEL BLENDS ALSO HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THAT AREA AS WELL FOR FRI...SO THIS SCENARIO WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

A SHORTWAVE AND INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE APPALACHIANS SHOULD BE
TRANSITIONING EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE REGION BY 0Z SATURDAY. MORE
ZONAL FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL TAKE HOLD FOR THE
DAY SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...THE LONGWAVE PATTERN IS PLANNED TO DEEPEN
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS...EVENTUALLY
MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT TRAVERSING KY DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD EVENTUALLY PASS THROUGH THE JKL
FORECAST AREA...BUT MODELS ARE STILL NOT LOCKED IN ON SIMILAR
TIMING. A MODEL BLEND WOULD SUGGEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND
WILL CENTER THE HIGHEST POPS AT THAT TIME. AS WITH THE UNCERTAIN
START TIMES...THE EXIT OF THIS FRONT IS ALSO STILL SOMEWHAT
UNDETERMINED. WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDS A BLEND OF EXTENDED MODELS AT
THIS TIME UNTIL BETTER COHERENCY TAKES PLACE IN LATER MODEL RUNS.

SOUTHERLY WINDS JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...AS WELL AS
INCOMING CLOUD COVER...WILL KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. KEPT WITH ONLY MENTIONING SLIGHT
CHANCE THUNDER FOR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. JUST NOT PICKING UP ON A
LOT OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...IN ADDITION TO THE FACT THAT
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE WEAKENING/SHEARING OUT AS IT REACHES
OUR AREA. 18Z SUNDAY SOUNDINGS SEEM TO SHOW THE BEST INSTABILITY
POTENTIAL /THOUGH STILL MARGINAL/...BUT WINDS ARE NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL FROM THE WEST...SO DON/T EXPECT ANYTHING THAT
DEVELOPS TO STAY SUSTAINED FOR ANY LONG PERIOD OF TIME.

BEHIND THIS EXITING TROUGH WILL COME STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND
SURFACE SUBSIDENCE. THIS WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS DRY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED /MONDAY FORWARD/. THE DEPTH OF
THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO WORK TO PULL STRONG NORTHERLY/CANADIAN AIR IN
THE LOW...MID...AND UPPER LEVELS ACROSS KENTUCKY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COLDEST ON TUESDAY...WHEN SOME OF THE BEST/STRONGEST NORTHERLY
AIR IS TAPPED INTO. BUT OVERALL...HIGHS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE UPPER
60S AND LOW 70S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. WITH STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED OVERNIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL STAY IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD INTO TONIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...MORE FOG IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT. THIS TIME AROUND...FOG
SHOULD BE MORE CONFINED TO THE VALLEYS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME FOG
CREEPING ONTO A FEW OF THE RIDGES. FOG WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...KAS








000
FXUS63 KJKL 181532
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1132 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1132 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

UPDATED TO REMOVE THE LAST OF THE FOG AS IT IS JUST NOW FINISHING UP
BURNING OFF ACROSS SOME OF OUR EASTERN AREAS. THIS HAS SLOWED DOWN
THE TEMPERATURE RISE THIS MORNING SOME...BUT WE SHOULD NOT HAVE A
PROBLEM CATCHING BACK UP WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...OUTSIDE OF THESE TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURES...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE SPRINKLES AND STRAY LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SINCE A LITTLE BEFORE SUNRISE ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME DENSE FOG IS STILL OCCURRING ON A COUPLE OF RIDGETOP
LOCATIONS...MAINLY IN THE BIG SANDY REGION. OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL
CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH
CU DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. HOURLY GRINDS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. AN UPDATED ZFP IS
ALREADY OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO NEAR THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION
THIS MORNING. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS BROUGHT SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AND BANDS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE COMMONWEALTH. THESE BANDS OF
CLOUDS DO HAVE SOME THIN SPOTS AND HOLES IN THEM. THE MOST WIDESPREAD
MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE NEAR THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR. IN FACT...SOME
WEAK RETURNS ARE WORKING ACROSS THE SW PART OF THE CWA NEARER TO THE
TN BORDER. NO MEASURABLE RAIN HAS BEEN OBSERVED SO FAR WITH THIS. IN
THE VERY NEAR TERM WE HAVE OPTED TO JUST INCLUDE SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES FROM MCCREARY EAST INTO HARLAN COUNTY. THE ARRIVAL
OF THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAS AT LEAST TEMPORARILY LED TO IMPROVED VIS
IN THE FOG IN MOST AREAS PER RECENT OBSERVATIONS OTHER THAN KI35 AND
KPBX AND SOME OF THE BIG SANDY REGION WHERE THE FOG HAS BEEN LOCALLY
DENSE. THE MID CLOUDS MOVING OVERHEAD SHOULD LEAD TO IMPROVEMENTS
THERE AS WELL OTHER THAN IN BREAKS OR HOLES IN THE CLOUDS THROUGH
DAWN.

BEHIND THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO WORK ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE NEAR 700 MB SHOULD ALSO DECREASE BUT
THE LAYER BETWEEN 850 MB AND 750 MB SHOULD STILL REMAIN RATHER MOIST.
SOME SHALLOW DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS LAYER FROM
MID DAY INTO THE AFTERNOON...AS DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN...
ESPECIALLY ALOFT...BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE. 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE LOWER OH
VALLEY FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS REGIONS. A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION BETWEEN 800 MB AND 700 MB SHOULD RESULT AND IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

AT THE SFC...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
ONTARIO WILL BUILD INTO THE OH VALLEY AND NORTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. FOG SHOULD DEVELOP TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN VALLEY LOCATIONS UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES.

AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH INTO EASTERN KY
LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THE INVERTED TROUGH SHOULD
WEAKEN AND GRADUALLY SHIFT WEST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS
INVERTED TROUGH SHOULD DRAW ENOUGH MOISTURE WEST ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS FOR SOME MOSTLY RATHER SHALLOW CU DEVELOPMENT BELOW THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ON FRI FROM MIDDAY INTO THE EVENING. SOME OF
THIS COULD BECOME DEEP ENOUGH FOR A FEW SPRINKLES OR EVEN A STRAY
SHOWER OR TWO NEAR THE VA BORDER. FOR NOW...WE HAVE CONTINUED WITH A
DRY FORECAST AS MOS GUIDANCE GENERALLY HAS 10 PERCENT OR LOWER POPS.
HOWEVER...SEVERAL OF THE 0Z MODELS DO HAVE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
NEAR THE VA BORDER ON FRI AFTERNOON. THE MODEL BLENDS ALSO HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THAT AREA AS WELL FOR FRI...SO THIS SCENARIO WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

A SHORTWAVE AND INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE APPALACHIANS SHOULD BE
TRANSITIONING EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE REGION BY 0Z SATURDAY. MORE
ZONAL FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL TAKE HOLD FOR THE
DAY SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...THE LONGWAVE PATTERN IS PLANNED TO DEEPEN
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS...EVENTUALLY
MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT TRAVERSING KY DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD EVENTUALLY PASS THROUGH THE JKL
FORECAST AREA...BUT MODELS ARE STILL NOT LOCKED IN ON SIMILAR
TIMING. A MODEL BLEND WOULD SUGGEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND
WILL CENTER THE HIGHEST POPS AT THAT TIME. AS WITH THE UNCERTAIN
START TIMES...THE EXIT OF THIS FRONT IS ALSO STILL SOMEWHAT
UNDETERMINED. WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDS A BLEND OF EXTENDED MODELS AT
THIS TIME UNTIL BETTER COHERENCY TAKES PLACE IN LATER MODEL RUNS.

SOUTHERLY WINDS JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...AS WELL AS
INCOMING CLOUD COVER...WILL KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. KEPT WITH ONLY MENTIONING SLIGHT
CHANCE THUNDER FOR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. JUST NOT PICKING UP ON A
LOT OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...IN ADDITION TO THE FACT THAT
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE WEAKENING/SHEARING OUT AS IT REACHES
OUR AREA. 18Z SUNDAY SOUNDINGS SEEM TO SHOW THE BEST INSTABILITY
POTENTIAL /THOUGH STILL MARGINAL/...BUT WINDS ARE NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL FROM THE WEST...SO DON/T EXPECT ANYTHING THAT
DEVELOPS TO STAY SUSTAINED FOR ANY LONG PERIOD OF TIME.

BEHIND THIS EXITING TROUGH WILL COME STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND
SURFACE SUBSIDENCE. THIS WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS DRY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED /MONDAY FORWARD/. THE DEPTH OF
THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO WORK TO PULL STRONG NORTHERLY/CANADIAN AIR IN
THE LOW...MID...AND UPPER LEVELS ACROSS KENTUCKY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COLDEST ON TUESDAY...WHEN SOME OF THE BEST/STRONGEST NORTHERLY
AIR IS TAPPED INTO. BUT OVERALL...HIGHS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE UPPER
60S AND LOW 70S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. WITH STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED OVERNIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL STAY IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

A WEAKENING DISTURBANCE INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION ATTM. THIS
FEATURE HAS BROUGHT SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND
EVEN SOME SPRINKLES AND STRAY LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...THE STRAY LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ARE DIMINISHING AND
WHAT IS LEFT OF THESE WILL NOT IMPACT THE TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...
THE FOG THAT DEVELOPED BEFORE THESE BANDS OF CLOUDS MOVED ACROSS
THE REGION HAS LIFTED ONTO THE RIDGES IN SOUTHEASTERN KY. THE FOG
WILL INITIALLY BE DENSE AT SJS...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT WITH VFR BY
1430Z. SOME VFR OR MVFR FOG IS ANTICIPATED AT THE REMAINING TAF SITES
INITIALLY WITH ALL LOCATIONS IMPROVING INTO VFR AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER 14Z. ANY CU THAT DEVELOPS AND REMAINING MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE THROUGH AROUND 22Z WHEN THEY DISSIPATE. FOG...
REDUCING VIS DOWN INTO THE MVFR RANGE...OR POSSIBLY IFR RANGE WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...JP








000
FXUS63 KJKL 181155 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
755 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE SPRINKLES AND STRAY LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SINCE A LITTLE BEFORE SUNRISE ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME DENSE FOG IS STILL OCCURRING ON A COUPLE OF RIDGETOP
LOCATIONS...MAINLY IN THE BIG SANDY REGION. OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL
CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH
CU DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. HOURLY GRINDS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. AN UPDATED ZFP IS
ALREADY OUT.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO NEAR THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION
THIS MORNING. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS BROUGHT SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AND BANDS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE COMMONWEALTH. THESE BANDS OF
CLOUDS DO HAVE SOME THIN SPOTS AND HOLES IN THEM. THE MOST WIDESPREAD
MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE NEAR THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR. IN FACT...SOME
WEAK RETURNS ARE WORKING ACROSS THE SW PART OF THE CWA NEARER TO THE
TN BORDER. NO MEASURABLE RAIN HAS BEEN OBSERVED SO FAR WITH THIS. IN
THE VERY NEAR TERM WE HAVE OPTED TO JUST INCLUDE SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES FROM MCCREARY EAST INTO HARLAN COUNTY. THE ARRIVAL
OF THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAS AT LEAST TEMPORARILY LED TO IMPROVED VIS
IN THE FOG IN MOST AREAS PER RECENT OBSERVATIONS OTHER THAN KI35 AND
KPBX AND SOME OF THE BIG SANDY REGION WHERE THE FOG HAS BEEN LOCALLY
DENSE. THE MID CLOUDS MOVING OVERHEAD SHOULD LEAD TO IMPROVEMENTS
THERE AS WELL OTHER THAN IN BREAKS OR HOLES IN THE CLOUDS THROUGH
DAWN.

BEHIND THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO WORK ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE NEAR 700 MB SHOULD ALSO DECREASE BUT
THE LAYER BETWEEN 850 MB AND 750 MB SHOULD STILL REMAIN RATHER MOIST.
SOME SHALLOW DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS LAYER FROM
MID DAY INTO THE AFTERNOON...AS DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN...
ESPECIALLY ALOFT...BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE. 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE LOWER OH
VALLEY FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS REGIONS. A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION BETWEEN 800 MB AND 700 MB SHOULD RESULT AND IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

AT THE SFC...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
ONTARIO WILL BUILD INTO THE OH VALLEY AND NORTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. FOG SHOULD DEVELOP TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN VALLEY LOCATIONS UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES.

AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH INTO EASTERN KY
LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THE INVERTED TROUGH SHOULD
WEAKEN AND GRADUALLY SHIFT WEST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS
INVERTED TROUGH SHOULD DRAW ENOUGH MOISTURE WEST ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS FOR SOME MOSTLY RATHER SHALLOW CU DEVELOPMENT BELOW THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ON FRI FROM MIDDAY INTO THE EVENING. SOME OF
THIS COULD BECOME DEEP ENOUGH FOR A FEW SPRINKLES OR EVEN A STRAY
SHOWER OR TWO NEAR THE VA BORDER. FOR NOW...WE HAVE CONTINUED WITH A
DRY FORECAST AS MOS GUIDANCE GENERALLY HAS 10 PERCENT OR LOWER POPS.
HOWEVER...SEVERAL OF THE 0Z MODELS DO HAVE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
NEAR THE VA BORDER ON FRI AFTERNOON. THE MODEL BLENDS ALSO HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THAT AREA AS WELL FOR FRI...SO THIS SCENARIO WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

A SHORTWAVE AND INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE APPALACHIANS SHOULD BE
TRANSITIONING EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE REGION BY 0Z SATURDAY. MORE
ZONAL FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL TAKE HOLD FOR THE
DAY SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...THE LONGWAVE PATTERN IS PLANNED TO DEEPEN
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS...EVENTUALLY
MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT TRAVERSING KY DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD EVENTUALLY PASS THROUGH THE JKL
FORECAST AREA...BUT MODELS ARE STILL NOT LOCKED IN ON SIMILAR
TIMING. A MODEL BLEND WOULD SUGGEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND
WILL CENTER THE HIGHEST POPS AT THAT TIME. AS WITH THE UNCERTAIN
START TIMES...THE EXIT OF THIS FRONT IS ALSO STILL SOMEWHAT
UNDETERMINED. WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDS A BLEND OF EXTENDED MODELS AT
THIS TIME UNTIL BETTER COHERENCY TAKES PLACE IN LATER MODEL RUNS.

SOUTHERLY WINDS JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...AS WELL AS
INCOMING CLOUD COVER...WILL KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. KEPT WITH ONLY MENTIONING SLIGHT
CHANCE THUNDER FOR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. JUST NOT PICKING UP ON A
LOT OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...IN ADDITION TO THE FACT THAT
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE WEAKENING/SHEARING OUT AS IT REACHES
OUR AREA. 18Z SUNDAY SOUNDINGS SEEM TO SHOW THE BEST INSTABILITY
POTENTIAL /THOUGH STILL MARGINAL/...BUT WINDS ARE NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL FROM THE WEST...SO DON/T EXPECT ANYTHING THAT
DEVELOPS TO STAY SUSTAINED FOR ANY LONG PERIOD OF TIME.

BEHIND THIS EXITING TROUGH WILL COME STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND
SURFACE SUBSIDENCE. THIS WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS DRY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED /MONDAY FORWARD/. THE DEPTH OF
THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO WORK TO PULL STRONG NORTHERLY/CANADIAN AIR IN
THE LOW...MID...AND UPPER LEVELS ACROSS KENTUCKY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COLDEST ON TUESDAY...WHEN SOME OF THE BEST/STRONGEST NORTHERLY
AIR IS TAPPED INTO. BUT OVERALL...HIGHS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE UPPER
60S AND LOW 70S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. WITH STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED OVERNIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL STAY IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

A WEAKENING DISTURBANCE INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION ATTM. THIS
FEATURE HAS BROUGHT SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND
EVEN SOME SPRINKLES AND STRAY LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...THE STRAY LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ARE DIMINISHING AND
WHAT IS LEFT OF THESE WILL NOT IMPACT THE TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...
THE FOG THAT DEVELOPED BEFORE THESE BANDS OF CLOUDS MOVED ACROSS
THE REGION HAS LIFTED ONTO THE RIDGES IN SOUTHEASTERN KY. THE FOG
WILL INITIALLY BE DENSE AT SJS...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT WITH VFR BY
1430Z. SOME VFR OR MVFR FOG IS ANTICIPATED AT THE REMAINING TAF SITES
INITIALLY WITH ALL LOCATIONS IMPROVING INTO VFR AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER 14Z. ANY CU THAT DEVELOPS AND REMAINING MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE THROUGH AROUND 22Z WHEN THEY DISSIPATE. FOG...
REDUCING VIS DOWN INTO THE MVFR RANGE...OR POSSIBLY IFR RANGE WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...JP






000
FXUS63 KJKL 181155 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
755 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE SPRINKLES AND STRAY LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SINCE A LITTLE BEFORE SUNRISE ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME DENSE FOG IS STILL OCCURRING ON A COUPLE OF RIDGETOP
LOCATIONS...MAINLY IN THE BIG SANDY REGION. OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL
CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH
CU DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. HOURLY GRINDS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. AN UPDATED ZFP IS
ALREADY OUT.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO NEAR THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION
THIS MORNING. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS BROUGHT SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AND BANDS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE COMMONWEALTH. THESE BANDS OF
CLOUDS DO HAVE SOME THIN SPOTS AND HOLES IN THEM. THE MOST WIDESPREAD
MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE NEAR THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR. IN FACT...SOME
WEAK RETURNS ARE WORKING ACROSS THE SW PART OF THE CWA NEARER TO THE
TN BORDER. NO MEASURABLE RAIN HAS BEEN OBSERVED SO FAR WITH THIS. IN
THE VERY NEAR TERM WE HAVE OPTED TO JUST INCLUDE SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES FROM MCCREARY EAST INTO HARLAN COUNTY. THE ARRIVAL
OF THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAS AT LEAST TEMPORARILY LED TO IMPROVED VIS
IN THE FOG IN MOST AREAS PER RECENT OBSERVATIONS OTHER THAN KI35 AND
KPBX AND SOME OF THE BIG SANDY REGION WHERE THE FOG HAS BEEN LOCALLY
DENSE. THE MID CLOUDS MOVING OVERHEAD SHOULD LEAD TO IMPROVEMENTS
THERE AS WELL OTHER THAN IN BREAKS OR HOLES IN THE CLOUDS THROUGH
DAWN.

BEHIND THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO WORK ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE NEAR 700 MB SHOULD ALSO DECREASE BUT
THE LAYER BETWEEN 850 MB AND 750 MB SHOULD STILL REMAIN RATHER MOIST.
SOME SHALLOW DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS LAYER FROM
MID DAY INTO THE AFTERNOON...AS DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN...
ESPECIALLY ALOFT...BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE. 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE LOWER OH
VALLEY FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS REGIONS. A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION BETWEEN 800 MB AND 700 MB SHOULD RESULT AND IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

AT THE SFC...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
ONTARIO WILL BUILD INTO THE OH VALLEY AND NORTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. FOG SHOULD DEVELOP TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN VALLEY LOCATIONS UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES.

AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH INTO EASTERN KY
LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THE INVERTED TROUGH SHOULD
WEAKEN AND GRADUALLY SHIFT WEST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS
INVERTED TROUGH SHOULD DRAW ENOUGH MOISTURE WEST ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS FOR SOME MOSTLY RATHER SHALLOW CU DEVELOPMENT BELOW THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ON FRI FROM MIDDAY INTO THE EVENING. SOME OF
THIS COULD BECOME DEEP ENOUGH FOR A FEW SPRINKLES OR EVEN A STRAY
SHOWER OR TWO NEAR THE VA BORDER. FOR NOW...WE HAVE CONTINUED WITH A
DRY FORECAST AS MOS GUIDANCE GENERALLY HAS 10 PERCENT OR LOWER POPS.
HOWEVER...SEVERAL OF THE 0Z MODELS DO HAVE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
NEAR THE VA BORDER ON FRI AFTERNOON. THE MODEL BLENDS ALSO HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THAT AREA AS WELL FOR FRI...SO THIS SCENARIO WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

A SHORTWAVE AND INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE APPALACHIANS SHOULD BE
TRANSITIONING EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE REGION BY 0Z SATURDAY. MORE
ZONAL FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL TAKE HOLD FOR THE
DAY SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...THE LONGWAVE PATTERN IS PLANNED TO DEEPEN
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS...EVENTUALLY
MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT TRAVERSING KY DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD EVENTUALLY PASS THROUGH THE JKL
FORECAST AREA...BUT MODELS ARE STILL NOT LOCKED IN ON SIMILAR
TIMING. A MODEL BLEND WOULD SUGGEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND
WILL CENTER THE HIGHEST POPS AT THAT TIME. AS WITH THE UNCERTAIN
START TIMES...THE EXIT OF THIS FRONT IS ALSO STILL SOMEWHAT
UNDETERMINED. WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDS A BLEND OF EXTENDED MODELS AT
THIS TIME UNTIL BETTER COHERENCY TAKES PLACE IN LATER MODEL RUNS.

SOUTHERLY WINDS JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...AS WELL AS
INCOMING CLOUD COVER...WILL KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. KEPT WITH ONLY MENTIONING SLIGHT
CHANCE THUNDER FOR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. JUST NOT PICKING UP ON A
LOT OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...IN ADDITION TO THE FACT THAT
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE WEAKENING/SHEARING OUT AS IT REACHES
OUR AREA. 18Z SUNDAY SOUNDINGS SEEM TO SHOW THE BEST INSTABILITY
POTENTIAL /THOUGH STILL MARGINAL/...BUT WINDS ARE NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL FROM THE WEST...SO DON/T EXPECT ANYTHING THAT
DEVELOPS TO STAY SUSTAINED FOR ANY LONG PERIOD OF TIME.

BEHIND THIS EXITING TROUGH WILL COME STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND
SURFACE SUBSIDENCE. THIS WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS DRY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED /MONDAY FORWARD/. THE DEPTH OF
THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO WORK TO PULL STRONG NORTHERLY/CANADIAN AIR IN
THE LOW...MID...AND UPPER LEVELS ACROSS KENTUCKY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COLDEST ON TUESDAY...WHEN SOME OF THE BEST/STRONGEST NORTHERLY
AIR IS TAPPED INTO. BUT OVERALL...HIGHS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE UPPER
60S AND LOW 70S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. WITH STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED OVERNIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL STAY IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

A WEAKENING DISTURBANCE INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION ATTM. THIS
FEATURE HAS BROUGHT SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND
EVEN SOME SPRINKLES AND STRAY LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...THE STRAY LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ARE DIMINISHING AND
WHAT IS LEFT OF THESE WILL NOT IMPACT THE TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...
THE FOG THAT DEVELOPED BEFORE THESE BANDS OF CLOUDS MOVED ACROSS
THE REGION HAS LIFTED ONTO THE RIDGES IN SOUTHEASTERN KY. THE FOG
WILL INITIALLY BE DENSE AT SJS...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT WITH VFR BY
1430Z. SOME VFR OR MVFR FOG IS ANTICIPATED AT THE REMAINING TAF SITES
INITIALLY WITH ALL LOCATIONS IMPROVING INTO VFR AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER 14Z. ANY CU THAT DEVELOPS AND REMAINING MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE THROUGH AROUND 22Z WHEN THEY DISSIPATE. FOG...
REDUCING VIS DOWN INTO THE MVFR RANGE...OR POSSIBLY IFR RANGE WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...JP





000
FXUS63 KJKL 180816
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
416 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO NEAR THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION
THIS MORNING. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS BROUGHT SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AND BANDS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE COMMONWEALTH. THESE BANDS OF
CLOUDS DO HAVE SOME THIN SPOTS AND HOLES IN THEM. THE MOST WIDESPREAD
MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE NEAR THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR. IN FACT...SOME
WEAK RETURNS ARE WORKING ACROSS THE SW PART OF THE CWA NEARER TO THE
TN BORDER. NO MEASURABLE RAIN HAS BEEN OBSERVED SO FAR WITH THIS. IN
THE VERY NEAR TERM WE HAVE OPTED TO JUST INCLUDE SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES FROM MCCREARY EAST INTO HARLAN COUNTY. THE ARRIVAL
OF THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAS AT LEAST TEMPORARILY LED TO IMPROVED VIS
IN THE FOG IN MOST AREAS PER RECENT OBSERVATIONS OTHER THAN KI35 AND
KPBX AND SOME OF THE BIG SANDY REGION WHERE THE FOG HAS BEEN LOCALLY
DENSE. THE MID CLOUDS MOVING OVERHEAD SHOULD LEAD TO IMPROVEMENTS
THERE AS WELL OTHER THAN IN BREAKS OR HOLES IN THE CLOUDS THROUGH
DAWN.

BEHIND THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO WORK ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE NEAR 700 MB SHOULD ALSO DECREASE BUT
THE LAYER BETWEEN 850 MB AND 750 MB SHOULD STILL REMAIN RATHER MOIST.
SOME SHALLOW DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS LAYER FROM
MID DAY INTO THE AFTERNOON...AS DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN...
ESPECIALLY ALOFT...BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE. 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE LOWER OH
VALLEY FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS REGIONS. A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION BETWEEN 800 MB AND 700 MB SHOULD RESULT AND IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

AT THE SFC...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
ONTARIO WILL BUILD INTO THE OH VALLEY AND NORTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. FOG SHOULD DEVELOP TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN VALLEY LOCATIONS UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES.

AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH INTO EASTERN KY
LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THE INVERTED TROUGH SHOULD
WEAKEN AND GRADUALLY SHIFT WEST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS
INVERTED TROUGH SHOULD DRAW ENOUGH MOISTURE WEST ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS FOR SOME MOSTLY RATHER SHALLOW CU DEVELOPMENT BELOW THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ON FRI FROM MIDDAY INTO THE EVENING. SOME OF
THIS COULD BECOME DEEP ENOUGH FOR A FEW SPRINKLES OR EVEN A STRAY
SHOWER OR TWO NEAR THE VA BORDER. FOR NOW...WE HAVE CONTINUED WITH A
DRY FORECAST AS MOS GUIDANCE GENERALLY HAS 10 PERCENT OR LOWER POPS.
HOWEVER...SEVERAL OF THE 0Z MODELS DO HAVE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
NEAR THE VA BORDER ON FRI AFTERNOON. THE MODEL BLENDS ALSO HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THAT AREA AS WELL FOR FRI...SO THIS SCENARIO WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

A SHORTWAVE AND INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE APPALACHIANS SHOULD BE
TRANSITIONING EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE REGION BY 0Z SATURDAY. MORE
ZONAL FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL TAKE HOLD FOR THE
DAY SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...THE LONGWAVE PATTERN IS PLANNED TO DEEPEN
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS...EVENTUALLY
MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT TRAVERSING KY DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD EVENTUALLY PASS THROUGH THE JKL
FORECAST AREA...BUT MODELS ARE STILL NOT LOCKED IN ON SIMILAR
TIMING. A MODEL BLEND WOULD SUGGEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND
WILL CENTER THE HIGHEST POPS AT THAT TIME. AS WITH THE UNCERTAIN
START TIMES...THE EXIT OF THIS FRONT IS ALSO STILL SOMEWHAT
UNDETERMINED. WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDS A BLEND OF EXTENDED MODELS AT
THIS TIME UNTIL BETTER COHERENCY TAKES PLACE IN LATER MODEL RUNS.

SOUTHERLY WINDS JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...AS WELL AS
INCOMING CLOUD COVER...WILL KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. KEPT WITH ONLY MENTIONING SLIGHT
CHANCE THUNDER FOR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. JUST NOT PICKING UP ON A
LOT OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...IN ADDITION TO THE FACT THAT
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE WEAKENING/SHEARING OUT AS IT REACHES
OUR AREA. 18Z SUNDAY SOUNDINGS SEEM TO SHOW THE BEST INSTABILITY
POTENTIAL /THOUGH STILL MARGINAL/...BUT WINDS ARE NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL FROM THE WEST...SO DON/T EXPECT ANYTHING THAT
DEVELOPS TO STAY SUSTAINED FOR ANY LONG PERIOD OF TIME.

BEHIND THIS EXITING TROUGH WILL COME STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND
SURFACE SUBSIDENCE. THIS WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS DRY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED /MONDAY FORWARD/. THE DEPTH OF
THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO WORK TO PULL STRONG NORTHERLY/CANADIAN AIR IN
THE LOW...MID...AND UPPER LEVELS ACROSS KENTUCKY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COLDEST ON TUESDAY...WHEN SOME OF THE BEST/STRONGEST NORTHERLY
AIR IS TAPPED INTO. BUT OVERALL...HIGHS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE UPPER
60S AND LOW 70S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. WITH STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED OVERNIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL STAY IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE LOWER OH VALLEY
REGION. THIS FEATURE IS BRINGING SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS TO
THE COMMONWEALTH AND SOME OF IT IS WORKING INTO THE CWA ATTM. THIS
CLOUD COVER SHOULD GENERALLY TEND TO MODERATE OR LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT. FOG HAS DEVELOPED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART
OF THE CWA NEAR SJS. PENDING ANY PARTIAL CLEARING THERE MAY BE MORE
COVERAGE CLOSE TO DAWN...BUT RECENT TRENDS POINT TOWARD THIS ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH AND THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS IN THE SOUTHEAST. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS IN THE FOG OVERNIGHT...BUT GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY TRENDED
TOWARD LESS FOG AT JKL AND LOZ. THIS TREND SHOULD ALSO HOLD FOR SME
AND SJS AS THE CLOUDS SHOULD RESTRICT OR LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT UNLESS
BREAKS OR PARTIAL CLEARING DEVELOPS. DENSITY AND COVERAGE OF FOG WILL
DEPEND ON EXACTLY HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WE REALIZE. FOR THE TAF SITES
WE HAVE OPTED TO GO AS OPTIMISTIC...IF NOT A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN
MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST. THIS BROUGHT VIS DOWN TO NO WORSE THAN
IFR AT THE TAF SITES GENERALLY DURING THE 8Z TO 14Z PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...JP








000
FXUS63 KJKL 180816
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
416 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO NEAR THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION
THIS MORNING. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS BROUGHT SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AND BANDS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE COMMONWEALTH. THESE BANDS OF
CLOUDS DO HAVE SOME THIN SPOTS AND HOLES IN THEM. THE MOST WIDESPREAD
MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE NEAR THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR. IN FACT...SOME
WEAK RETURNS ARE WORKING ACROSS THE SW PART OF THE CWA NEARER TO THE
TN BORDER. NO MEASURABLE RAIN HAS BEEN OBSERVED SO FAR WITH THIS. IN
THE VERY NEAR TERM WE HAVE OPTED TO JUST INCLUDE SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES FROM MCCREARY EAST INTO HARLAN COUNTY. THE ARRIVAL
OF THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAS AT LEAST TEMPORARILY LED TO IMPROVED VIS
IN THE FOG IN MOST AREAS PER RECENT OBSERVATIONS OTHER THAN KI35 AND
KPBX AND SOME OF THE BIG SANDY REGION WHERE THE FOG HAS BEEN LOCALLY
DENSE. THE MID CLOUDS MOVING OVERHEAD SHOULD LEAD TO IMPROVEMENTS
THERE AS WELL OTHER THAN IN BREAKS OR HOLES IN THE CLOUDS THROUGH
DAWN.

BEHIND THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO WORK ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE NEAR 700 MB SHOULD ALSO DECREASE BUT
THE LAYER BETWEEN 850 MB AND 750 MB SHOULD STILL REMAIN RATHER MOIST.
SOME SHALLOW DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS LAYER FROM
MID DAY INTO THE AFTERNOON...AS DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN...
ESPECIALLY ALOFT...BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE. 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE LOWER OH
VALLEY FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS REGIONS. A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION BETWEEN 800 MB AND 700 MB SHOULD RESULT AND IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

AT THE SFC...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
ONTARIO WILL BUILD INTO THE OH VALLEY AND NORTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. FOG SHOULD DEVELOP TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN VALLEY LOCATIONS UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES.

AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH INTO EASTERN KY
LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THE INVERTED TROUGH SHOULD
WEAKEN AND GRADUALLY SHIFT WEST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS
INVERTED TROUGH SHOULD DRAW ENOUGH MOISTURE WEST ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS FOR SOME MOSTLY RATHER SHALLOW CU DEVELOPMENT BELOW THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ON FRI FROM MIDDAY INTO THE EVENING. SOME OF
THIS COULD BECOME DEEP ENOUGH FOR A FEW SPRINKLES OR EVEN A STRAY
SHOWER OR TWO NEAR THE VA BORDER. FOR NOW...WE HAVE CONTINUED WITH A
DRY FORECAST AS MOS GUIDANCE GENERALLY HAS 10 PERCENT OR LOWER POPS.
HOWEVER...SEVERAL OF THE 0Z MODELS DO HAVE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
NEAR THE VA BORDER ON FRI AFTERNOON. THE MODEL BLENDS ALSO HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THAT AREA AS WELL FOR FRI...SO THIS SCENARIO WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

A SHORTWAVE AND INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE APPALACHIANS SHOULD BE
TRANSITIONING EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE REGION BY 0Z SATURDAY. MORE
ZONAL FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL TAKE HOLD FOR THE
DAY SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...THE LONGWAVE PATTERN IS PLANNED TO DEEPEN
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS...EVENTUALLY
MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT TRAVERSING KY DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD EVENTUALLY PASS THROUGH THE JKL
FORECAST AREA...BUT MODELS ARE STILL NOT LOCKED IN ON SIMILAR
TIMING. A MODEL BLEND WOULD SUGGEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND
WILL CENTER THE HIGHEST POPS AT THAT TIME. AS WITH THE UNCERTAIN
START TIMES...THE EXIT OF THIS FRONT IS ALSO STILL SOMEWHAT
UNDETERMINED. WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDS A BLEND OF EXTENDED MODELS AT
THIS TIME UNTIL BETTER COHERENCY TAKES PLACE IN LATER MODEL RUNS.

SOUTHERLY WINDS JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...AS WELL AS
INCOMING CLOUD COVER...WILL KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. KEPT WITH ONLY MENTIONING SLIGHT
CHANCE THUNDER FOR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. JUST NOT PICKING UP ON A
LOT OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...IN ADDITION TO THE FACT THAT
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE WEAKENING/SHEARING OUT AS IT REACHES
OUR AREA. 18Z SUNDAY SOUNDINGS SEEM TO SHOW THE BEST INSTABILITY
POTENTIAL /THOUGH STILL MARGINAL/...BUT WINDS ARE NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL FROM THE WEST...SO DON/T EXPECT ANYTHING THAT
DEVELOPS TO STAY SUSTAINED FOR ANY LONG PERIOD OF TIME.

BEHIND THIS EXITING TROUGH WILL COME STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND
SURFACE SUBSIDENCE. THIS WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS DRY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED /MONDAY FORWARD/. THE DEPTH OF
THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO WORK TO PULL STRONG NORTHERLY/CANADIAN AIR IN
THE LOW...MID...AND UPPER LEVELS ACROSS KENTUCKY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COLDEST ON TUESDAY...WHEN SOME OF THE BEST/STRONGEST NORTHERLY
AIR IS TAPPED INTO. BUT OVERALL...HIGHS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE UPPER
60S AND LOW 70S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. WITH STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED OVERNIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL STAY IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE LOWER OH VALLEY
REGION. THIS FEATURE IS BRINGING SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS TO
THE COMMONWEALTH AND SOME OF IT IS WORKING INTO THE CWA ATTM. THIS
CLOUD COVER SHOULD GENERALLY TEND TO MODERATE OR LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT. FOG HAS DEVELOPED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART
OF THE CWA NEAR SJS. PENDING ANY PARTIAL CLEARING THERE MAY BE MORE
COVERAGE CLOSE TO DAWN...BUT RECENT TRENDS POINT TOWARD THIS ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH AND THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS IN THE SOUTHEAST. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS IN THE FOG OVERNIGHT...BUT GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY TRENDED
TOWARD LESS FOG AT JKL AND LOZ. THIS TREND SHOULD ALSO HOLD FOR SME
AND SJS AS THE CLOUDS SHOULD RESTRICT OR LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT UNLESS
BREAKS OR PARTIAL CLEARING DEVELOPS. DENSITY AND COVERAGE OF FOG WILL
DEPEND ON EXACTLY HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WE REALIZE. FOR THE TAF SITES
WE HAVE OPTED TO GO AS OPTIMISTIC...IF NOT A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN
MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST. THIS BROUGHT VIS DOWN TO NO WORSE THAN
IFR AT THE TAF SITES GENERALLY DURING THE 8Z TO 14Z PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...JP







000
FXUS63 KJKL 180728
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
328 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SCT TO BKN MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE CONTINUE TO WORK EAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH. MODEL 700
MB MOISTURE PLAN VIEW DATA SUGGESTS THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK
EAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND INTO EARLY ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHER CHANCES FOR BROKEN OR
OVERCAST MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF
THE CWA AND MORE OF A CHANCES FOR SCATTERED MID CLOUDS OR SCATTERING
OUT TOWARD DAWN IN THE FAR NORTH. MEANWHILE...FOG HAS DEVELOPED
ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS...BUT WITH MID CLOUDS WORKING IN...
IT EITHER SHOULD NOT BECOME DENSE OR IF IT DOES SO IT MAY BECOME LESS
DENSE TOWARD DAWN OR DURING PERIODS WHEN THE MID CLOUDS ARE WORKING
OVERHEAD. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DETAILS OF THE FOG AND
ALSO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE CURVE AS WELL. AT THIS POINT...HOURLY
GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON RECENT SAT AND OBSERVATION TRENDS
AND BLENDED INTO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TOWARD DAWN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1025 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK THIS EVENING. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAKENING DISTURBANCE IS TRACKING TOWARDS OUR AREA AS EXPECTED.
RESULT WILL BE SCT TO AT TIMES BKN SKY COVER...MAKING DETAILS OF
HOURLY TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND FOG DEVELOPMENT ALL THAT MORE
CHALLENGING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. TWEAKED
AND BLENDED GRIDS TOWARDS HOURLY OBS AND TRENDS. ATTM...NO OTHER
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE ARE NECESSARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 835 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST. SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHERN IL/IN
IS DISSIPATING AS THE DISTURBANCE WEAKENS. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE
WILL STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING IN SOME ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS TO OUR AREA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME OVERNIGHT. QUESTION IS
WILL CLOUD COVER BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO MITIGATE FORMATION OF FOG.
TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING AT A DECENT RATE AS OUR CU FILED
DISSIPATES. SFC DEW POINTS HAVE ALREADY REBOUNDED AS WELL. THOUGHTS
ARE WE WILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING THROUGH THE EVENING TIME
FRAME. BUT DENSITIES AND COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED AS CLOUDS ROLL
THROUGH GENERALLY BETWEEN 05Z AND 10Z. APPEARS THERE MAY BE SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING AS WE APPROACH SUNRISE WHERE FOG COULD THICKEN UP
AND SPREAD FOR THOSE COUPLE OF HOURS AROUND DAWN. MUCH DEPENDS ON
EXACTLY HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WE REALIZE. WITH DEW POINTS RECOVERING
SO QUICKLY AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING FASTER THAN EXPECTED...FELT IT
WOULD BE GOOD TO INTRODUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME PATCHY FOG THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS...AND EARLY MORNING THURSDAY. THEREAFTER EXPANDED
FOG THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS. MAY SOME TWEAKS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS
BASED ON HOURLY TRENDS. THIS RESULTED IN A DROP OF A FEW DEGREES...
MAINLY IN OUR NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER EAST
KENTUCKY WITH A WAVY FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE. ALONG THE
WESTERN EXTENT OF THIS BOUNDARY...A WAVE HAS DEVELOPED AND IS
RUNNING SOUTHEAST OVER THIS FRONT COMING OUT OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.
LOCALLY THE CLOUDS ARE BREAKING UP THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF
THE CWA...WHILE HOLDING ON A BIT LONGER OVER THE NORTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES VARY MAINLY ACCORDING TO THE AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE...FROM THE MID 60S NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTH.
DEW POINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW AND MID 50S THROUGH THE AREA WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS IN PLACE.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS THEY WEAKEN THE LARGE
NORTHEAST TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR NEARLY A WEEK NOW. A
FEW WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THIS
FILLING PROCESS. ANY MODEL DIFFERENCES THAT CROP UP WILL HAVE
RELEVANCE ONLY AFTER THE SHORT TERM PART OF THE FORECAST.
ACCORDINGLY...HAVE FOLLOWED A GENERAL MODEL BLEND AND FOCUSED ON THE
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 42 HOURS AS DEPICTED IN THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND ALSO...INITIALLY...THE HRRR.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE SFC REFLECTION...OF THE MID LEVEL
WAVE...PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
MAINLY JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS NOTED FOR EAST KENTUCKY. THESE
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT...AS WELL...AFTER MIDNIGHT SETTING THE STAGE
FOR A NIGHT OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING THAT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME
UPPER 40S IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS BY DAWN ALONG WITH AREAS OF
FOG...LOCALLY DENSE TOWARD SUNRISE. IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC WAVE...
THURSDAY WILL SEE A RESURGENT HIGH BUILD INTO EAST KENTUCKY FROM THE
NORTH WHILE THE CLOUDS MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTH. ANY CAA WITH THIS WILL
BE COUNTERACTED BY THE AMPLE SUNSHINE TO YIELD COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...ONCE THE FOG CLEARS.
ANOTHER GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING FOLLOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
PATCHY VALLEY FOG...OR WORSE...ANTICIPATED BY DAWN WHILE TEMPS WILL
FLIRT WITH THE UPPER 40S AGAIN IN THOSE VALLEYS. BOTH TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...SLIGHTLY MILDER READINGS CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE
RIDGES.

THE CONSSHORT WAS USED AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS BEFORE THE SUPER BLEND WAS LOADED IN
THEREAFTER. DID AGAIN NUDGE THE LOWS TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
FOR RIDGE AND VALLEY DIFFERENCES. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP WITH SINGLE
DIGITS THROUGH THE FORECAST...IN-LINE WITH GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

A SHORTWAVE AND INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE APPALACHIANS SHOULD BE
TRANSITIONING EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE REGION BY 0Z SATURDAY. MORE
ZONAL FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL TAKE HOLD FOR THE
DAY SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...THE LONGWAVE PATTERN IS PLANNED TO DEEPEN
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS...EVENTUALLY
MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT TRAVERSING KY DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD EVENTUALLY PASS THROUGH THE JKL
FORECAST AREA...BUT MODELS ARE STILL NOT LOCKED IN ON SIMILAR
TIMING. A MODEL BLEND WOULD SUGGEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND
WILL CENTER THE HIGHEST POPS AT THAT TIME. AS WITH THE UNCERTAIN
START TIMES...THE EXIT OF THIS FRONT IS ALSO STILL SOMEWHAT
UNDETERMINED. WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDS A BLEND OF EXTENDED MODELS AT
THIS TIME UNTIL BETTER COHERENCY TAKES PLACE IN LATER MODEL RUNS.

SOUTHERLY WINDS JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...AS WELL AS
INCOMING CLOUD COVER...WILL KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. KEPT WITH ONLY MENTIONING SLIGHT
CHANCE THUNDER FOR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. JUST NOT PICKING UP ON A
LOT OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...IN ADDITION TO THE FACT THAT
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE WEAKENING/SHEARING OUT AS IT REACHES
OUR AREA. 18Z SUNDAY SOUNDINGS SEEM TO SHOW THE BEST INSTABILITY
POTENTIAL /THOUGH STILL MARGINAL/...BUT WINDS ARE NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL FROM THE WEST...SO DON/T EXPECT ANYTHING THAT
DEVELOPS TO STAY SUSTAINED FOR ANY LONG PERIOD OF TIME.

BEHIND THIS EXITING TROUGH WILL COME STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND
SURFACE SUBSIDENCE. THIS WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS DRY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED /MONDAY FORWARD/. THE DEPTH OF
THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO WORK TO PULL STRONG NORTHERLY/CANADIAN AIR IN
THE LOW...MID...AND UPPER LEVELS ACROSS KENTUCKY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COLDEST ON TUESDAY...WHEN SOME OF THE BEST/STRONGEST NORTHERLY
AIR IS TAPPED INTO. BUT OVERALL...HIGHS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE UPPER
60S AND LOW 70S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. WITH STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED OVERNIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL STAY IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE LOWER OH VALLEY
REGION. THIS FEATURE IS BRINGING SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS TO
THE COMMONWEALTH AND SOME OF IT IS WORKING INTO THE CWA ATTM. THIS
CLOUD COVER SHOULD GENERALLY TEND TO MODERATE OR LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT. FOG HAS DEVELOPED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART
OF THE CWA NEAR SJS. PENDING ANY PARTIAL CLEARING THERE MAY BE MORE
COVERAGE CLOSE TO DAWN...BUT RECENT TRENDS POINT TOWARD THIS ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH AND THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS IN THE SOUTHEAST. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS IN THE FOG OVERNIGHT...BUT GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY TRENDED
TOWARD LESS FOG AT JKL AND LOZ. THIS TREND SHOULD ALSO HOLD FOR SME
AND SJS AS THE CLOUDS SHOULD RESTRICT OR LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT UNLESS
BREAKS OR PARTIAL CLEARING DEVELOPS. DENSITY AND COVERAGE OF FOG WILL
DEPEND ON EXACTLY HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WE REALIZE. FOR THE TAF SITES
WE HAVE OPTED TO GO AS OPTIMISTIC...IF NOT A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN
MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST. THIS BROUGHT VIS DOWN TO NO WORSE THAN
IFR AT THE TAF SITES GENERALLY DURING THE 8Z TO 14Z PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...JP








000
FXUS63 KJKL 180728
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
328 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SCT TO BKN MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE CONTINUE TO WORK EAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH. MODEL 700
MB MOISTURE PLAN VIEW DATA SUGGESTS THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK
EAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND INTO EARLY ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHER CHANCES FOR BROKEN OR
OVERCAST MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF
THE CWA AND MORE OF A CHANCES FOR SCATTERED MID CLOUDS OR SCATTERING
OUT TOWARD DAWN IN THE FAR NORTH. MEANWHILE...FOG HAS DEVELOPED
ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS...BUT WITH MID CLOUDS WORKING IN...
IT EITHER SHOULD NOT BECOME DENSE OR IF IT DOES SO IT MAY BECOME LESS
DENSE TOWARD DAWN OR DURING PERIODS WHEN THE MID CLOUDS ARE WORKING
OVERHEAD. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DETAILS OF THE FOG AND
ALSO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE CURVE AS WELL. AT THIS POINT...HOURLY
GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON RECENT SAT AND OBSERVATION TRENDS
AND BLENDED INTO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TOWARD DAWN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1025 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK THIS EVENING. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAKENING DISTURBANCE IS TRACKING TOWARDS OUR AREA AS EXPECTED.
RESULT WILL BE SCT TO AT TIMES BKN SKY COVER...MAKING DETAILS OF
HOURLY TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND FOG DEVELOPMENT ALL THAT MORE
CHALLENGING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. TWEAKED
AND BLENDED GRIDS TOWARDS HOURLY OBS AND TRENDS. ATTM...NO OTHER
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE ARE NECESSARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 835 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST. SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHERN IL/IN
IS DISSIPATING AS THE DISTURBANCE WEAKENS. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE
WILL STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING IN SOME ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS TO OUR AREA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME OVERNIGHT. QUESTION IS
WILL CLOUD COVER BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO MITIGATE FORMATION OF FOG.
TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING AT A DECENT RATE AS OUR CU FILED
DISSIPATES. SFC DEW POINTS HAVE ALREADY REBOUNDED AS WELL. THOUGHTS
ARE WE WILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING THROUGH THE EVENING TIME
FRAME. BUT DENSITIES AND COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED AS CLOUDS ROLL
THROUGH GENERALLY BETWEEN 05Z AND 10Z. APPEARS THERE MAY BE SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING AS WE APPROACH SUNRISE WHERE FOG COULD THICKEN UP
AND SPREAD FOR THOSE COUPLE OF HOURS AROUND DAWN. MUCH DEPENDS ON
EXACTLY HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WE REALIZE. WITH DEW POINTS RECOVERING
SO QUICKLY AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING FASTER THAN EXPECTED...FELT IT
WOULD BE GOOD TO INTRODUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME PATCHY FOG THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS...AND EARLY MORNING THURSDAY. THEREAFTER EXPANDED
FOG THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS. MAY SOME TWEAKS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS
BASED ON HOURLY TRENDS. THIS RESULTED IN A DROP OF A FEW DEGREES...
MAINLY IN OUR NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER EAST
KENTUCKY WITH A WAVY FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE. ALONG THE
WESTERN EXTENT OF THIS BOUNDARY...A WAVE HAS DEVELOPED AND IS
RUNNING SOUTHEAST OVER THIS FRONT COMING OUT OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.
LOCALLY THE CLOUDS ARE BREAKING UP THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF
THE CWA...WHILE HOLDING ON A BIT LONGER OVER THE NORTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES VARY MAINLY ACCORDING TO THE AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE...FROM THE MID 60S NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTH.
DEW POINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW AND MID 50S THROUGH THE AREA WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS IN PLACE.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS THEY WEAKEN THE LARGE
NORTHEAST TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR NEARLY A WEEK NOW. A
FEW WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THIS
FILLING PROCESS. ANY MODEL DIFFERENCES THAT CROP UP WILL HAVE
RELEVANCE ONLY AFTER THE SHORT TERM PART OF THE FORECAST.
ACCORDINGLY...HAVE FOLLOWED A GENERAL MODEL BLEND AND FOCUSED ON THE
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 42 HOURS AS DEPICTED IN THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND ALSO...INITIALLY...THE HRRR.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE SFC REFLECTION...OF THE MID LEVEL
WAVE...PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
MAINLY JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS NOTED FOR EAST KENTUCKY. THESE
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT...AS WELL...AFTER MIDNIGHT SETTING THE STAGE
FOR A NIGHT OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING THAT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME
UPPER 40S IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS BY DAWN ALONG WITH AREAS OF
FOG...LOCALLY DENSE TOWARD SUNRISE. IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC WAVE...
THURSDAY WILL SEE A RESURGENT HIGH BUILD INTO EAST KENTUCKY FROM THE
NORTH WHILE THE CLOUDS MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTH. ANY CAA WITH THIS WILL
BE COUNTERACTED BY THE AMPLE SUNSHINE TO YIELD COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...ONCE THE FOG CLEARS.
ANOTHER GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING FOLLOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
PATCHY VALLEY FOG...OR WORSE...ANTICIPATED BY DAWN WHILE TEMPS WILL
FLIRT WITH THE UPPER 40S AGAIN IN THOSE VALLEYS. BOTH TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...SLIGHTLY MILDER READINGS CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE
RIDGES.

THE CONSSHORT WAS USED AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS BEFORE THE SUPER BLEND WAS LOADED IN
THEREAFTER. DID AGAIN NUDGE THE LOWS TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
FOR RIDGE AND VALLEY DIFFERENCES. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP WITH SINGLE
DIGITS THROUGH THE FORECAST...IN-LINE WITH GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

A SHORTWAVE AND INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE APPALACHIANS SHOULD BE
TRANSITIONING EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE REGION BY 0Z SATURDAY. MORE
ZONAL FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL TAKE HOLD FOR THE
DAY SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...THE LONGWAVE PATTERN IS PLANNED TO DEEPEN
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS...EVENTUALLY
MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT TRAVERSING KY DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD EVENTUALLY PASS THROUGH THE JKL
FORECAST AREA...BUT MODELS ARE STILL NOT LOCKED IN ON SIMILAR
TIMING. A MODEL BLEND WOULD SUGGEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND
WILL CENTER THE HIGHEST POPS AT THAT TIME. AS WITH THE UNCERTAIN
START TIMES...THE EXIT OF THIS FRONT IS ALSO STILL SOMEWHAT
UNDETERMINED. WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDS A BLEND OF EXTENDED MODELS AT
THIS TIME UNTIL BETTER COHERENCY TAKES PLACE IN LATER MODEL RUNS.

SOUTHERLY WINDS JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...AS WELL AS
INCOMING CLOUD COVER...WILL KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. KEPT WITH ONLY MENTIONING SLIGHT
CHANCE THUNDER FOR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. JUST NOT PICKING UP ON A
LOT OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...IN ADDITION TO THE FACT THAT
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE WEAKENING/SHEARING OUT AS IT REACHES
OUR AREA. 18Z SUNDAY SOUNDINGS SEEM TO SHOW THE BEST INSTABILITY
POTENTIAL /THOUGH STILL MARGINAL/...BUT WINDS ARE NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL FROM THE WEST...SO DON/T EXPECT ANYTHING THAT
DEVELOPS TO STAY SUSTAINED FOR ANY LONG PERIOD OF TIME.

BEHIND THIS EXITING TROUGH WILL COME STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND
SURFACE SUBSIDENCE. THIS WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS DRY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED /MONDAY FORWARD/. THE DEPTH OF
THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO WORK TO PULL STRONG NORTHERLY/CANADIAN AIR IN
THE LOW...MID...AND UPPER LEVELS ACROSS KENTUCKY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COLDEST ON TUESDAY...WHEN SOME OF THE BEST/STRONGEST NORTHERLY
AIR IS TAPPED INTO. BUT OVERALL...HIGHS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE UPPER
60S AND LOW 70S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. WITH STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED OVERNIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL STAY IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE LOWER OH VALLEY
REGION. THIS FEATURE IS BRINGING SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS TO
THE COMMONWEALTH AND SOME OF IT IS WORKING INTO THE CWA ATTM. THIS
CLOUD COVER SHOULD GENERALLY TEND TO MODERATE OR LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT. FOG HAS DEVELOPED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART
OF THE CWA NEAR SJS. PENDING ANY PARTIAL CLEARING THERE MAY BE MORE
COVERAGE CLOSE TO DAWN...BUT RECENT TRENDS POINT TOWARD THIS ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH AND THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS IN THE SOUTHEAST. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS IN THE FOG OVERNIGHT...BUT GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY TRENDED
TOWARD LESS FOG AT JKL AND LOZ. THIS TREND SHOULD ALSO HOLD FOR SME
AND SJS AS THE CLOUDS SHOULD RESTRICT OR LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT UNLESS
BREAKS OR PARTIAL CLEARING DEVELOPS. DENSITY AND COVERAGE OF FOG WILL
DEPEND ON EXACTLY HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WE REALIZE. FOR THE TAF SITES
WE HAVE OPTED TO GO AS OPTIMISTIC...IF NOT A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN
MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST. THIS BROUGHT VIS DOWN TO NO WORSE THAN
IFR AT THE TAF SITES GENERALLY DURING THE 8Z TO 14Z PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...JP









000
FXUS63 KJKL 180610 AAC
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
210 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SCT TO BKN MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE CONTINUE TO WORK EAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH. MODEL 700
MB MOISTURE PLAN VIEW DATA SUGGESTS THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK
EAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND INTO EARLY ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHER CHANCES FOR BROKEN OR
OVERCAST MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF
THE CWA AND MORE OF A CHANCES FOR SCATTERED MID CLOUDS OR SCATTERING
OUT TOWARD DAWN IN THE FAR NORTH. MEANWHILE...FOG HAS DEVELOPED
ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS...BUT WITH MID CLOUDS WORKING IN...
IT EITHER SHOULD NOT BECOME DENSE OR IF IT DOES SO IT MAY BECOME LESS
DENSE TOWARD DAWN OR DURING PERIODS WHEN THE MID CLOUDS ARE WORKING
OVERHEAD. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DETAILS OF THE FOG AND
ALSO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE CURVE AS WELL. AT THIS POINT...HOURLY
GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON RECENT SAT AND OBSERVATION TRENDS
AND BLENDED INTO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TOWARD DAWN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1025 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK THIS EVENING. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAKENING DISTURBANCE IS TRACKING TOWARDS OUR AREA AS EXPECTED.
RESULT WILL BE SCT TO AT TIMES BKN SKY COVER...MAKING DETAILS OF
HOURLY TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND FOG DEVELOPMENT ALL THAT MORE
CHALLENGING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. TWEAKED
AND BLENDED GRIDS TOWARDS HOURLY OBS AND TRENDS. ATTM...NO OTHER
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE ARE NECESSARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 835 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST. SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHERN IL/IN
IS DISSIPATING AS THE DISTURBANCE WEAKENS. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE
WILL STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING IN SOME ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS TO OUR AREA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME OVERNIGHT. QUESTION IS
WILL CLOUD COVER BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO MITIGATE FORMATION OF FOG.
TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING AT A DECENT RATE AS OUR CU FILED
DISSIPATES. SFC DEW POINTS HAVE ALREADY REBOUNDED AS WELL. THOUGHTS
ARE WE WILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING THROUGH THE EVENING TIME
FRAME. BUT DENSITIES AND COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED AS CLOUDS ROLL
THROUGH GENERALLY BETWEEN 05Z AND 10Z. APPEARS THERE MAY BE SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING AS WE APPROACH SUNRISE WHERE FOG COULD THICKEN UP
AND SPREAD FOR THOSE COUPLE OF HOURS AROUND DAWN. MUCH DEPENDS ON
EXACTLY HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WE REALIZE. WITH DEW POINTS RECOVERING
SO QUICKLY AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING FASTER THAN EXPECTED...FELT IT
WOULD BE GOOD TO INTRODUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME PATCHY FOG THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS...AND EARLY MORNING THURSDAY. THEREAFTER EXPANDED
FOG THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS. MAY SOME TWEAKS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS
BASED ON HOURLY TRENDS. THIS RESULTED IN A DROP OF A FEW DEGREES...
MAINLY IN OUR NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER EAST
KENTUCKY WITH A WAVY FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE. ALONG THE
WESTERN EXTENT OF THIS BOUNDARY...A WAVE HAS DEVELOPED AND IS
RUNNING SOUTHEAST OVER THIS FRONT COMING OUT OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.
LOCALLY THE CLOUDS ARE BREAKING UP THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF
THE CWA...WHILE HOLDING ON A BIT LONGER OVER THE NORTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES VARY MAINLY ACCORDING TO THE AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE...FROM THE MID 60S NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTH.
DEW POINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW AND MID 50S THROUGH THE AREA WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS IN PLACE.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS THEY WEAKEN THE LARGE
NORTHEAST TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR NEARLY A WEEK NOW. A
FEW WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THIS
FILLING PROCESS. ANY MODEL DIFFERENCES THAT CROP UP WILL HAVE
RELEVANCE ONLY AFTER THE SHORT TERM PART OF THE FORECAST.
ACCORDINGLY...HAVE FOLLOWED A GENERAL MODEL BLEND AND FOCUSED ON THE
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 42 HOURS AS DEPICTED IN THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND ALSO...INITIALLY...THE HRRR.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE SFC REFLECTION...OF THE MID LEVEL
WAVE...PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
MAINLY JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS NOTED FOR EAST KENTUCKY. THESE
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT...AS WELL...AFTER MIDNIGHT SETTING THE STAGE
FOR A NIGHT OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING THAT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME
UPPER 40S IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS BY DAWN ALONG WITH AREAS OF
FOG...LOCALLY DENSE TOWARD SUNRISE. IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC WAVE...
THURSDAY WILL SEE A RESURGENT HIGH BUILD INTO EAST KENTUCKY FROM THE
NORTH WHILE THE CLOUDS MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTH. ANY CAA WITH THIS WILL
BE COUNTERACTED BY THE AMPLE SUNSHINE TO YIELD COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...ONCE THE FOG CLEARS.
ANOTHER GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING FOLLOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
PATCHY VALLEY FOG...OR WORSE...ANTICIPATED BY DAWN WHILE TEMPS WILL
FLIRT WITH THE UPPER 40S AGAIN IN THOSE VALLEYS. BOTH TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...SLIGHTLY MILDER READINGS CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE
RIDGES.

THE CONSSHORT WAS USED AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS BEFORE THE SUPER BLEND WAS LOADED IN
THEREAFTER. DID AGAIN NUDGE THE LOWS TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
FOR RIDGE AND VALLEY DIFFERENCES. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP WITH SINGLE
DIGITS THROUGH THE FORECAST...IN-LINE WITH GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

A DRY AIR MASS WILL STILL BE IN PLACE AS THE PERIOD STARTS...WITH
SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND RIDGING
SOUTHWESTWARD...AND A COLD FRONT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. GREATER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LOOMING JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE APPALACHIANS.
MODELS SHOW SOME OF THIS MOISTURE MAKING ITS WAY INTO KY IN THE FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH ON FRIDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF EVEN SHOW PRECIP AS FAR
NW AS OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN BORDER. HOWEVER...THE GFS MOS IS
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT POP AND THE NAM IS DRY...SO WILL STAY WITH A
DRY FORECAST ON FRIDAY. A WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OVER
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA. THE WARMING ALOFT THAT IT BRINGS WILL
RESULT IN A STABLE ATMOSPHERE...DESPITE SURFACE DEW POINTS AND
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO CREEP HIGHER.

THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ITS AMPLIFICATION AND SOUTHEASTWARD
PROGRESS...BRINGING THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD EVENTUALLY PASS THROUGH THE JKL
FORECAST AREA...BUT MODELS ARE STILL NOT LOCKED IN ON SIMILAR
TIMING. A MODEL BLEND WOULD SUGGEST SUNDAY EVENING...AND WILL
CENTER THE HIGHEST POPS AT THAT TIME...BUT WITH TEMPORAL VARIABILITY
IN MODELS...WILL USE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF POPS WITH NOTHING ABOVE
CHANCE CATEGORY AT THIS POINT. ONCE THE SYSTEM PASSES...ANOTHER
LARGE...COOL...AND DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
PASS SLOWLY BY JUST TO OUR NORTH...BRINGING AUTUMN-LIKE WEATHER FOR OUR
LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE LOWER OH VALLEY
REGION. THIS FEATURE IS BRINGING SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS TO
THE COMMONWEALTH AND SOME OF IT IS WORKING INTO THE CWA ATTM. THIS
CLOUD COVER SHOULD GENERALLY TEND TO MODERATE OR LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT. FOG HAS DEVELOPED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART
OF THE CWA NEAR SJS. PENDING ANY PARTIAL CLEARING THERE MAY BE MORE
COVERAGE CLOSE TO DAWN...BUT RECENT TRENDS POINT TOWARD THIS ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH AND THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS IN THE SOUTHEAST. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS IN THE FOG OVERNIGHT...BUT GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY TRENDED
TOWARD LESS FOG AT JKL AND LOZ. THIS TREND SHOULD ALSO HOLD FOR SME
AND SJS AS THE CLOUDS SHOULD RESTRICT OR LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT UNLESS
BREAKS OR PARTIAL CLEARING DEVELOPS. DENSITY AND COVERAGE OF FOG WILL
DEPEND ON EXACTLY HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WE REALIZE. FOR THE TAF SITES
WE HAVE OPTED TO GO AS OPTIMISTIC...IF NOT A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN
MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST. THIS BROUGHT VIS DOWN TO NO WORSE THAN
IFR AT THE TAF SITES GENERALLY DURING THE 8Z TO 14Z PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JP







000
FXUS63 KJKL 180610 AAC
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
210 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SCT TO BKN MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE CONTINUE TO WORK EAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH. MODEL 700
MB MOISTURE PLAN VIEW DATA SUGGESTS THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK
EAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND INTO EARLY ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHER CHANCES FOR BROKEN OR
OVERCAST MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF
THE CWA AND MORE OF A CHANCES FOR SCATTERED MID CLOUDS OR SCATTERING
OUT TOWARD DAWN IN THE FAR NORTH. MEANWHILE...FOG HAS DEVELOPED
ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS...BUT WITH MID CLOUDS WORKING IN...
IT EITHER SHOULD NOT BECOME DENSE OR IF IT DOES SO IT MAY BECOME LESS
DENSE TOWARD DAWN OR DURING PERIODS WHEN THE MID CLOUDS ARE WORKING
OVERHEAD. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DETAILS OF THE FOG AND
ALSO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE CURVE AS WELL. AT THIS POINT...HOURLY
GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON RECENT SAT AND OBSERVATION TRENDS
AND BLENDED INTO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TOWARD DAWN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1025 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK THIS EVENING. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAKENING DISTURBANCE IS TRACKING TOWARDS OUR AREA AS EXPECTED.
RESULT WILL BE SCT TO AT TIMES BKN SKY COVER...MAKING DETAILS OF
HOURLY TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND FOG DEVELOPMENT ALL THAT MORE
CHALLENGING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. TWEAKED
AND BLENDED GRIDS TOWARDS HOURLY OBS AND TRENDS. ATTM...NO OTHER
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE ARE NECESSARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 835 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST. SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHERN IL/IN
IS DISSIPATING AS THE DISTURBANCE WEAKENS. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE
WILL STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING IN SOME ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS TO OUR AREA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME OVERNIGHT. QUESTION IS
WILL CLOUD COVER BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO MITIGATE FORMATION OF FOG.
TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING AT A DECENT RATE AS OUR CU FILED
DISSIPATES. SFC DEW POINTS HAVE ALREADY REBOUNDED AS WELL. THOUGHTS
ARE WE WILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING THROUGH THE EVENING TIME
FRAME. BUT DENSITIES AND COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED AS CLOUDS ROLL
THROUGH GENERALLY BETWEEN 05Z AND 10Z. APPEARS THERE MAY BE SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING AS WE APPROACH SUNRISE WHERE FOG COULD THICKEN UP
AND SPREAD FOR THOSE COUPLE OF HOURS AROUND DAWN. MUCH DEPENDS ON
EXACTLY HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WE REALIZE. WITH DEW POINTS RECOVERING
SO QUICKLY AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING FASTER THAN EXPECTED...FELT IT
WOULD BE GOOD TO INTRODUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME PATCHY FOG THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS...AND EARLY MORNING THURSDAY. THEREAFTER EXPANDED
FOG THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS. MAY SOME TWEAKS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS
BASED ON HOURLY TRENDS. THIS RESULTED IN A DROP OF A FEW DEGREES...
MAINLY IN OUR NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER EAST
KENTUCKY WITH A WAVY FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE. ALONG THE
WESTERN EXTENT OF THIS BOUNDARY...A WAVE HAS DEVELOPED AND IS
RUNNING SOUTHEAST OVER THIS FRONT COMING OUT OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.
LOCALLY THE CLOUDS ARE BREAKING UP THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF
THE CWA...WHILE HOLDING ON A BIT LONGER OVER THE NORTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES VARY MAINLY ACCORDING TO THE AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE...FROM THE MID 60S NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTH.
DEW POINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW AND MID 50S THROUGH THE AREA WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS IN PLACE.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS THEY WEAKEN THE LARGE
NORTHEAST TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR NEARLY A WEEK NOW. A
FEW WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THIS
FILLING PROCESS. ANY MODEL DIFFERENCES THAT CROP UP WILL HAVE
RELEVANCE ONLY AFTER THE SHORT TERM PART OF THE FORECAST.
ACCORDINGLY...HAVE FOLLOWED A GENERAL MODEL BLEND AND FOCUSED ON THE
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 42 HOURS AS DEPICTED IN THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND ALSO...INITIALLY...THE HRRR.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE SFC REFLECTION...OF THE MID LEVEL
WAVE...PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
MAINLY JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS NOTED FOR EAST KENTUCKY. THESE
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT...AS WELL...AFTER MIDNIGHT SETTING THE STAGE
FOR A NIGHT OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING THAT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME
UPPER 40S IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS BY DAWN ALONG WITH AREAS OF
FOG...LOCALLY DENSE TOWARD SUNRISE. IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC WAVE...
THURSDAY WILL SEE A RESURGENT HIGH BUILD INTO EAST KENTUCKY FROM THE
NORTH WHILE THE CLOUDS MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTH. ANY CAA WITH THIS WILL
BE COUNTERACTED BY THE AMPLE SUNSHINE TO YIELD COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...ONCE THE FOG CLEARS.
ANOTHER GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING FOLLOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
PATCHY VALLEY FOG...OR WORSE...ANTICIPATED BY DAWN WHILE TEMPS WILL
FLIRT WITH THE UPPER 40S AGAIN IN THOSE VALLEYS. BOTH TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...SLIGHTLY MILDER READINGS CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE
RIDGES.

THE CONSSHORT WAS USED AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS BEFORE THE SUPER BLEND WAS LOADED IN
THEREAFTER. DID AGAIN NUDGE THE LOWS TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
FOR RIDGE AND VALLEY DIFFERENCES. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP WITH SINGLE
DIGITS THROUGH THE FORECAST...IN-LINE WITH GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

A DRY AIR MASS WILL STILL BE IN PLACE AS THE PERIOD STARTS...WITH
SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND RIDGING
SOUTHWESTWARD...AND A COLD FRONT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. GREATER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LOOMING JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE APPALACHIANS.
MODELS SHOW SOME OF THIS MOISTURE MAKING ITS WAY INTO KY IN THE FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH ON FRIDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF EVEN SHOW PRECIP AS FAR
NW AS OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN BORDER. HOWEVER...THE GFS MOS IS
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT POP AND THE NAM IS DRY...SO WILL STAY WITH A
DRY FORECAST ON FRIDAY. A WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OVER
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA. THE WARMING ALOFT THAT IT BRINGS WILL
RESULT IN A STABLE ATMOSPHERE...DESPITE SURFACE DEW POINTS AND
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO CREEP HIGHER.

THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ITS AMPLIFICATION AND SOUTHEASTWARD
PROGRESS...BRINGING THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD EVENTUALLY PASS THROUGH THE JKL
FORECAST AREA...BUT MODELS ARE STILL NOT LOCKED IN ON SIMILAR
TIMING. A MODEL BLEND WOULD SUGGEST SUNDAY EVENING...AND WILL
CENTER THE HIGHEST POPS AT THAT TIME...BUT WITH TEMPORAL VARIABILITY
IN MODELS...WILL USE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF POPS WITH NOTHING ABOVE
CHANCE CATEGORY AT THIS POINT. ONCE THE SYSTEM PASSES...ANOTHER
LARGE...COOL...AND DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
PASS SLOWLY BY JUST TO OUR NORTH...BRINGING AUTUMN-LIKE WEATHER FOR OUR
LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE LOWER OH VALLEY
REGION. THIS FEATURE IS BRINGING SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS TO
THE COMMONWEALTH AND SOME OF IT IS WORKING INTO THE CWA ATTM. THIS
CLOUD COVER SHOULD GENERALLY TEND TO MODERATE OR LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT. FOG HAS DEVELOPED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART
OF THE CWA NEAR SJS. PENDING ANY PARTIAL CLEARING THERE MAY BE MORE
COVERAGE CLOSE TO DAWN...BUT RECENT TRENDS POINT TOWARD THIS ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH AND THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS IN THE SOUTHEAST. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS IN THE FOG OVERNIGHT...BUT GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY TRENDED
TOWARD LESS FOG AT JKL AND LOZ. THIS TREND SHOULD ALSO HOLD FOR SME
AND SJS AS THE CLOUDS SHOULD RESTRICT OR LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT UNLESS
BREAKS OR PARTIAL CLEARING DEVELOPS. DENSITY AND COVERAGE OF FOG WILL
DEPEND ON EXACTLY HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WE REALIZE. FOR THE TAF SITES
WE HAVE OPTED TO GO AS OPTIMISTIC...IF NOT A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN
MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST. THIS BROUGHT VIS DOWN TO NO WORSE THAN
IFR AT THE TAF SITES GENERALLY DURING THE 8Z TO 14Z PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JP








000
FXUS63 KJKL 180225
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1025 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1025 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK THIS EVENING. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAKENING DISTURBANCE IS TRACKING TOWARDS OUR AREA AS EXPECTED.
RESULT WILL BE SCT TO AT TIMES BKN SKY COVER...MAKING DETAILS OF
HOURLY TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND FOG DEVELOPMENT ALL THAT MORE
CHALLENGING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. TWEAKED
AND BLENDED GRIDS TOWARDS HOURLY OBS AND TRENDS. ATTM...NO OTHER
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE ARE NECESSARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 835 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST. SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHERN IL/IN
IS DISSIPATING AS THE DISTURBANCE WEAKENS. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE
WILL STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING IN SOME ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS TO OUR AREA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME OVERNIGHT. QUESTION IS
WILL CLOUD COVER BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO MITIGATE FORMATION OF FOG.
TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING AT A DECENT RATE AS OUR CU FILED
DISSIPATES. SFC DEW POINTS HAVE ALREADY REBOUNDED AS WELL. THOUGHTS
ARE WE WILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING THROUGH THE EVENING TIME
FRAME. BUT DENSITIES AND COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED AS CLOUDS ROLL
THROUGH GENERALLY BETWEEN 05Z AND 10Z. APPEARS THERE MAY BE SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING AS WE APPROACH SUNRISE WHERE FOG COULD THICKEN UP
AND SPREAD FOR THOSE COUPLE OF HOURS AROUND DAWN. MUCH DEPENDS ON
EXACTLY HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WE REALIZE. WITH DEW POINTS RECOVERING
SO QUICKLY AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING FASTER THAN EXPECTED...FELT IT
WOULD BE GOOD TO INTRODUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME PATCHY FOG THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS...AND EARLY MORNING THURSDAY. THEREAFTER EXPANDED
FOG THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS. MAY SOME TWEAKS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS
BASED ON HOURLY TRENDS. THIS RESULTED IN A DROP OF A FEW DEGREES...
MAINLY IN OUR NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER EAST
KENTUCKY WITH A WAVY FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE. ALONG THE
WESTERN EXTENT OF THIS BOUNDARY...A WAVE HAS DEVELOPED AND IS
RUNNING SOUTHEAST OVER THIS FRONT COMING OUT OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.
LOCALLY THE CLOUDS ARE BREAKING UP THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF
THE CWA...WHILE HOLDING ON A BIT LONGER OVER THE NORTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES VARY MAINLY ACCORDING TO THE AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE...FROM THE MID 60S NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTH.
DEW POINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW AND MID 50S THROUGH THE AREA WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS IN PLACE.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS THEY WEAKEN THE LARGE
NORTHEAST TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR NEARLY A WEEK NOW. A
FEW WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THIS
FILLING PROCESS. ANY MODEL DIFFERENCES THAT CROP UP WILL HAVE
RELEVANCE ONLY AFTER THE SHORT TERM PART OF THE FORECAST.
ACCORDINGLY...HAVE FOLLOWED A GENERAL MODEL BLEND AND FOCUSED ON THE
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 42 HOURS AS DEPICTED IN THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND ALSO...INITIALLY...THE HRRR.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE SFC REFLECTION...OF THE MID LEVEL
WAVE...PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
MAINLY JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS NOTED FOR EAST KENTUCKY. THESE
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT...AS WELL...AFTER MIDNIGHT SETTING THE STAGE
FOR A NIGHT OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING THAT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME
UPPER 40S IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS BY DAWN ALONG WITH AREAS OF
FOG...LOCALLY DENSE TOWARD SUNRISE. IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC WAVE...
THURSDAY WILL SEE A RESURGENT HIGH BUILD INTO EAST KENTUCKY FROM THE
NORTH WHILE THE CLOUDS MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTH. ANY CAA WITH THIS WILL
BE COUNTERACTED BY THE AMPLE SUNSHINE TO YIELD COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...ONCE THE FOG CLEARS.
ANOTHER GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING FOLLOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
PATCHY VALLEY FOG...OR WORSE...ANTICIPATED BY DAWN WHILE TEMPS WILL
FLIRT WITH THE UPPER 40S AGAIN IN THOSE VALLEYS. BOTH TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...SLIGHTLY MILDER READINGS CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE
RIDGES.

THE CONSSHORT WAS USED AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS BEFORE THE SUPER BLEND WAS LOADED IN
THEREAFTER. DID AGAIN NUDGE THE LOWS TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
FOR RIDGE AND VALLEY DIFFERENCES. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP WITH SINGLE
DIGITS THROUGH THE FORECAST...IN-LINE WITH GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

A DRY AIR MASS WILL STILL BE IN PLACE AS THE PERIOD STARTS...WITH
SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND RIDGING
SOUTHWESTWARD...AND A COLD FRONT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. GREATER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LOOMING JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE APPALACHIANS.
MODELS SHOW SOME OF THIS MOISTURE MAKING ITS WAY INTO KY IN THE FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH ON FRIDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF EVEN SHOW PRECIP AS FAR
NW AS OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN BORDER. HOWEVER...THE GFS MOS IS
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT POP AND THE NAM IS DRY...SO WILL STAY WITH A
DRY FORECAST ON FRIDAY. A WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OVER
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA. THE WARMING ALOFT THAT IT BRINGS WILL
RESULT IN A STABLE ATMOSPHERE...DESPITE SURFACE DEW POINTS AND
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO CREEP HIGHER.

THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ITS AMPLIFICATION AND SOUTHEASTWARD
PROGRESS...BRINGING THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD EVENTUALLY PASS THROUGH THE JKL
FORECAST AREA...BUT MODELS ARE STILL NOT LOCKED IN ON SIMILAR
TIMING. A MODEL BLEND WOULD SUGGEST SUNDAY EVENING...AND WILL
CENTER THE HIGHEST POPS AT THAT TIME...BUT WITH TEMPORAL VARIABILITY
IN MODELS...WILL USE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF POPS WITH NOTHING ABOVE
CHANCE CATEGORY AT THIS POINT. ONCE THE SYSTEM PASSES...ANOTHER
LARGE...COOL...AND DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
PASS SLOWLY BY JUST TO OUR NORTH...BRINGING AUTUMN-LIKE WEATHER FOR OUR
LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 835 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO OUR
AREA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME OVERNIGHT. QUESTION IS WILL CLOUD COVER BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO HELP MODERATE FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING FAIRLY RAPIDLY AND SFC DEW POINTS HAVE
ALREADY REBOUNDED AS WELL. THOUGHTS ARE WE WILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE EVENING TIME FRAME...WITH WIDER COVERAGE
RESTRICTED TO THE PRE DAWN HOURS AND SUNRISE AS WE EXPECT SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING. MID LEVEL CLOUDS ROLL THROUGH GENERALLY BETWEEN
05Z AND 10Z OR SO. DENSITY AND COVERAGE OF FOG WILL DEPEND ON
EXACTLY HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WE REALIZE. CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH...
BUT WENT A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST.
KEPT IFR CONDITIONS OR BETTER AT MOST OF OUR TERMINALS. EXCEPTION WAS
SME WHERE LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HOURS LEADING UP TO
SUNRISE. LOOK FOR GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE MORNING. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...RAY








000
FXUS63 KJKL 180225
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1025 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1025 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK THIS EVENING. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAKENING DISTURBANCE IS TRACKING TOWARDS OUR AREA AS EXPECTED.
RESULT WILL BE SCT TO AT TIMES BKN SKY COVER...MAKING DETAILS OF
HOURLY TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND FOG DEVELOPMENT ALL THAT MORE
CHALLENGING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. TWEAKED
AND BLENDED GRIDS TOWARDS HOURLY OBS AND TRENDS. ATTM...NO OTHER
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE ARE NECESSARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 835 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST. SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHERN IL/IN
IS DISSIPATING AS THE DISTURBANCE WEAKENS. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE
WILL STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING IN SOME ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS TO OUR AREA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME OVERNIGHT. QUESTION IS
WILL CLOUD COVER BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO MITIGATE FORMATION OF FOG.
TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING AT A DECENT RATE AS OUR CU FILED
DISSIPATES. SFC DEW POINTS HAVE ALREADY REBOUNDED AS WELL. THOUGHTS
ARE WE WILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING THROUGH THE EVENING TIME
FRAME. BUT DENSITIES AND COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED AS CLOUDS ROLL
THROUGH GENERALLY BETWEEN 05Z AND 10Z. APPEARS THERE MAY BE SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING AS WE APPROACH SUNRISE WHERE FOG COULD THICKEN UP
AND SPREAD FOR THOSE COUPLE OF HOURS AROUND DAWN. MUCH DEPENDS ON
EXACTLY HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WE REALIZE. WITH DEW POINTS RECOVERING
SO QUICKLY AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING FASTER THAN EXPECTED...FELT IT
WOULD BE GOOD TO INTRODUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME PATCHY FOG THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS...AND EARLY MORNING THURSDAY. THEREAFTER EXPANDED
FOG THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS. MAY SOME TWEAKS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS
BASED ON HOURLY TRENDS. THIS RESULTED IN A DROP OF A FEW DEGREES...
MAINLY IN OUR NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER EAST
KENTUCKY WITH A WAVY FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE. ALONG THE
WESTERN EXTENT OF THIS BOUNDARY...A WAVE HAS DEVELOPED AND IS
RUNNING SOUTHEAST OVER THIS FRONT COMING OUT OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.
LOCALLY THE CLOUDS ARE BREAKING UP THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF
THE CWA...WHILE HOLDING ON A BIT LONGER OVER THE NORTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES VARY MAINLY ACCORDING TO THE AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE...FROM THE MID 60S NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTH.
DEW POINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW AND MID 50S THROUGH THE AREA WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS IN PLACE.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS THEY WEAKEN THE LARGE
NORTHEAST TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR NEARLY A WEEK NOW. A
FEW WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THIS
FILLING PROCESS. ANY MODEL DIFFERENCES THAT CROP UP WILL HAVE
RELEVANCE ONLY AFTER THE SHORT TERM PART OF THE FORECAST.
ACCORDINGLY...HAVE FOLLOWED A GENERAL MODEL BLEND AND FOCUSED ON THE
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 42 HOURS AS DEPICTED IN THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND ALSO...INITIALLY...THE HRRR.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE SFC REFLECTION...OF THE MID LEVEL
WAVE...PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
MAINLY JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS NOTED FOR EAST KENTUCKY. THESE
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT...AS WELL...AFTER MIDNIGHT SETTING THE STAGE
FOR A NIGHT OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING THAT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME
UPPER 40S IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS BY DAWN ALONG WITH AREAS OF
FOG...LOCALLY DENSE TOWARD SUNRISE. IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC WAVE...
THURSDAY WILL SEE A RESURGENT HIGH BUILD INTO EAST KENTUCKY FROM THE
NORTH WHILE THE CLOUDS MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTH. ANY CAA WITH THIS WILL
BE COUNTERACTED BY THE AMPLE SUNSHINE TO YIELD COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...ONCE THE FOG CLEARS.
ANOTHER GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING FOLLOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
PATCHY VALLEY FOG...OR WORSE...ANTICIPATED BY DAWN WHILE TEMPS WILL
FLIRT WITH THE UPPER 40S AGAIN IN THOSE VALLEYS. BOTH TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...SLIGHTLY MILDER READINGS CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE
RIDGES.

THE CONSSHORT WAS USED AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS BEFORE THE SUPER BLEND WAS LOADED IN
THEREAFTER. DID AGAIN NUDGE THE LOWS TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
FOR RIDGE AND VALLEY DIFFERENCES. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP WITH SINGLE
DIGITS THROUGH THE FORECAST...IN-LINE WITH GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

A DRY AIR MASS WILL STILL BE IN PLACE AS THE PERIOD STARTS...WITH
SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND RIDGING
SOUTHWESTWARD...AND A COLD FRONT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. GREATER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LOOMING JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE APPALACHIANS.
MODELS SHOW SOME OF THIS MOISTURE MAKING ITS WAY INTO KY IN THE FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH ON FRIDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF EVEN SHOW PRECIP AS FAR
NW AS OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN BORDER. HOWEVER...THE GFS MOS IS
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT POP AND THE NAM IS DRY...SO WILL STAY WITH A
DRY FORECAST ON FRIDAY. A WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OVER
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA. THE WARMING ALOFT THAT IT BRINGS WILL
RESULT IN A STABLE ATMOSPHERE...DESPITE SURFACE DEW POINTS AND
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO CREEP HIGHER.

THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ITS AMPLIFICATION AND SOUTHEASTWARD
PROGRESS...BRINGING THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD EVENTUALLY PASS THROUGH THE JKL
FORECAST AREA...BUT MODELS ARE STILL NOT LOCKED IN ON SIMILAR
TIMING. A MODEL BLEND WOULD SUGGEST SUNDAY EVENING...AND WILL
CENTER THE HIGHEST POPS AT THAT TIME...BUT WITH TEMPORAL VARIABILITY
IN MODELS...WILL USE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF POPS WITH NOTHING ABOVE
CHANCE CATEGORY AT THIS POINT. ONCE THE SYSTEM PASSES...ANOTHER
LARGE...COOL...AND DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
PASS SLOWLY BY JUST TO OUR NORTH...BRINGING AUTUMN-LIKE WEATHER FOR OUR
LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 835 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO OUR
AREA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME OVERNIGHT. QUESTION IS WILL CLOUD COVER BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO HELP MODERATE FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING FAIRLY RAPIDLY AND SFC DEW POINTS HAVE
ALREADY REBOUNDED AS WELL. THOUGHTS ARE WE WILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE EVENING TIME FRAME...WITH WIDER COVERAGE
RESTRICTED TO THE PRE DAWN HOURS AND SUNRISE AS WE EXPECT SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING. MID LEVEL CLOUDS ROLL THROUGH GENERALLY BETWEEN
05Z AND 10Z OR SO. DENSITY AND COVERAGE OF FOG WILL DEPEND ON
EXACTLY HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WE REALIZE. CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH...
BUT WENT A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST.
KEPT IFR CONDITIONS OR BETTER AT MOST OF OUR TERMINALS. EXCEPTION WAS
SME WHERE LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HOURS LEADING UP TO
SUNRISE. LOOK FOR GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE MORNING. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...RAY







000
FXUS63 KJKL 180035
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
835 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 835 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST. SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHERN IL/IN
IS DISSIPATING AS THE DISTURBANCE WEAKENS. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE
WILL STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING IN SOME ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS TO OUR AREA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME OVERNIGHT. QUESTION IS
WILL CLOUD COVER BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO MITIGATE FORMATION OF FOG.
TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING AT A DECENT RATE AS OUR CU FILED
DISSIPATES. SFC DEW POINTS HAVE ALREADY REBOUNDED AS WELL. THOUGHTS
ARE WE WILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING THROUGH THE EVENING TIME
FRAME. BUT DENSITIES AND COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED AS CLOUDS ROLL
THROUGH GENERALLY BETWEEN 05Z AND 10Z. APPEARS THERE MAY BE SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING AS WE APPROACH SUNRISE WHERE FOG COULD THICKEN UP
AND SPREAD FOR THOSE COUPLE OF HOURS AROUND DAWN. MUCH DEPENDS ON
EXACTLY HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WE REALIZE. WITH DEW POINTS RECOVERING
SO QUICKLY AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING FASTER THAN EXPECTED...FELT IT
WOULD BE GOOD TO INTRODUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME PATCHY FOG THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS...AND EARLY MORNING THURSDAY. THEREAFTER EXPANDED
FOG THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS. MAY SOME TWEAKS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS
BASED ON HOURLY TRENDS. THIS RESULTED IN A DROP OF A FEW DEGREES...
MAINLY IN OUR NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER EAST
KENTUCKY WITH A WAVY FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE. ALONG THE
WESTERN EXTENT OF THIS BOUNDARY...A WAVE HAS DEVELOPED AND IS
RUNNING SOUTHEAST OVER THIS FRONT COMING OUT OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.
LOCALLY THE CLOUDS ARE BREAKING UP THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF
THE CWA...WHILE HOLDING ON A BIT LONGER OVER THE NORTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES VARY MAINLY ACCORDING TO THE AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE...FROM THE MID 60S NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTH.
DEW POINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW AND MID 50S THROUGH THE AREA WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS IN PLACE.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS THEY WEAKEN THE LARGE
NORTHEAST TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR NEARLY A WEEK NOW. A
FEW WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THIS
FILLING PROCESS. ANY MODEL DIFFERENCES THAT CROP UP WILL HAVE
RELEVANCE ONLY AFTER THE SHORT TERM PART OF THE FORECAST.
ACCORDINGLY...HAVE FOLLOWED A GENERAL MODEL BLEND AND FOCUSED ON THE
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 42 HOURS AS DEPICTED IN THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND ALSO...INITIALLY...THE HRRR.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE SFC REFLECTION...OF THE MID LEVEL
WAVE...PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
MAINLY JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS NOTED FOR EAST KENTUCKY. THESE
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT...AS WELL...AFTER MIDNIGHT SETTING THE STAGE
FOR A NIGHT OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING THAT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME
UPPER 40S IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS BY DAWN ALONG WITH AREAS OF
FOG...LOCALLY DENSE TOWARD SUNRISE. IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC WAVE...
THURSDAY WILL SEE A RESURGENT HIGH BUILD INTO EAST KENTUCKY FROM THE
NORTH WHILE THE CLOUDS MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTH. ANY CAA WITH THIS WILL
BE COUNTERACTED BY THE AMPLE SUNSHINE TO YIELD COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...ONCE THE FOG CLEARS.
ANOTHER GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING FOLLOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
PATCHY VALLEY FOG...OR WORSE...ANTICIPATED BY DAWN WHILE TEMPS WILL
FLIRT WITH THE UPPER 40S AGAIN IN THOSE VALLEYS. BOTH TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...SLIGHTLY MILDER READINGS CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE
RIDGES.

THE CONSSHORT WAS USED AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS BEFORE THE SUPER BLEND WAS LOADED IN
THEREAFTER. DID AGAIN NUDGE THE LOWS TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
FOR RIDGE AND VALLEY DIFFERENCES. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP WITH SINGLE
DIGITS THROUGH THE FORECAST...IN-LINE WITH GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

A DRY AIR MASS WILL STILL BE IN PLACE AS THE PERIOD STARTS...WITH
SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND RIDGING
SOUTHWESTWARD...AND A COLD FRONT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. GREATER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LOOMING JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE APPALACHIANS.
MODELS SHOW SOME OF THIS MOISTURE MAKING ITS WAY INTO KY IN THE FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH ON FRIDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF EVEN SHOW PRECIP AS FAR
NW AS OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN BORDER. HOWEVER...THE GFS MOS IS
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT POP AND THE NAM IS DRY...SO WILL STAY WITH A
DRY FORECAST ON FRIDAY. A WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OVER
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA. THE WARMING ALOFT THAT IT BRINGS WILL
RESULT IN A STABLE ATMOSPHERE...DESPITE SURFACE DEW POINTS AND
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO CREEP HIGHER.

THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ITS AMPLIFICATION AND SOUTHEASTWARD
PROGRESS...BRINGING THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD EVENTUALLY PASS THROUGH THE JKL
FORECAST AREA...BUT MODELS ARE STILL NOT LOCKED IN ON SIMILAR
TIMING. A MODEL BLEND WOULD SUGGEST SUNDAY EVENING...AND WILL
CENTER THE HIGHEST POPS AT THAT TIME...BUT WITH TEMPORAL VARIABILITY
IN MODELS...WILL USE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF POPS WITH NOTHING ABOVE
CHANCE CATEGORY AT THIS POINT. ONCE THE SYSTEM PASSES...ANOTHER
LARGE...COOL...AND DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
PASS SLOWLY BY JUST TO OUR NORTH...BRINGING AUTUMN-LIKE WEATHER FOR OUR
LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 835 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO OUR
AREA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME OVERNIGHT. QUESTION IS WILL CLOUD COVER BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO HELP MODERATE FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING FAIRLY RAPIDLY AND SFC DEW POINTS HAVE
ALREADY REBOUNDED AS WELL. THOUGHTS ARE WE WILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE EVENING TIME FRAME...WITH WIDER COVERAGE
RESTRICTED TO THE PRE DAWN HOURS AND SUNRISE AS WE EXPECT SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING. MID LEVEL CLOUDS ROLL THROUGH GENERALLY BETWEEN
05Z AND 10Z OR SO. DENSITY AND COVERAGE OF FOG WILL DEPEND ON
EXACTLY HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WE REALIZE. CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH...
BUT WENT A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST.
KEPT IFR CONDITIONS OR BETTER AT MOST OF OUR TERMINALS. EXCEPTION WAS
SME WHERE LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HOURS LEADING UP TO
SUNRISE. LOOK FOR GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE MORNING. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...RAY







000
FXUS63 KJKL 180035
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
835 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 835 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST. SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHERN IL/IN
IS DISSIPATING AS THE DISTURBANCE WEAKENS. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE
WILL STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING IN SOME ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS TO OUR AREA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME OVERNIGHT. QUESTION IS
WILL CLOUD COVER BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO MITIGATE FORMATION OF FOG.
TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING AT A DECENT RATE AS OUR CU FILED
DISSIPATES. SFC DEW POINTS HAVE ALREADY REBOUNDED AS WELL. THOUGHTS
ARE WE WILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING THROUGH THE EVENING TIME
FRAME. BUT DENSITIES AND COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED AS CLOUDS ROLL
THROUGH GENERALLY BETWEEN 05Z AND 10Z. APPEARS THERE MAY BE SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING AS WE APPROACH SUNRISE WHERE FOG COULD THICKEN UP
AND SPREAD FOR THOSE COUPLE OF HOURS AROUND DAWN. MUCH DEPENDS ON
EXACTLY HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WE REALIZE. WITH DEW POINTS RECOVERING
SO QUICKLY AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING FASTER THAN EXPECTED...FELT IT
WOULD BE GOOD TO INTRODUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME PATCHY FOG THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS...AND EARLY MORNING THURSDAY. THEREAFTER EXPANDED
FOG THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS. MAY SOME TWEAKS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS
BASED ON HOURLY TRENDS. THIS RESULTED IN A DROP OF A FEW DEGREES...
MAINLY IN OUR NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER EAST
KENTUCKY WITH A WAVY FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE. ALONG THE
WESTERN EXTENT OF THIS BOUNDARY...A WAVE HAS DEVELOPED AND IS
RUNNING SOUTHEAST OVER THIS FRONT COMING OUT OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.
LOCALLY THE CLOUDS ARE BREAKING UP THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF
THE CWA...WHILE HOLDING ON A BIT LONGER OVER THE NORTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES VARY MAINLY ACCORDING TO THE AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE...FROM THE MID 60S NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTH.
DEW POINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW AND MID 50S THROUGH THE AREA WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS IN PLACE.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS THEY WEAKEN THE LARGE
NORTHEAST TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR NEARLY A WEEK NOW. A
FEW WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THIS
FILLING PROCESS. ANY MODEL DIFFERENCES THAT CROP UP WILL HAVE
RELEVANCE ONLY AFTER THE SHORT TERM PART OF THE FORECAST.
ACCORDINGLY...HAVE FOLLOWED A GENERAL MODEL BLEND AND FOCUSED ON THE
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 42 HOURS AS DEPICTED IN THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND ALSO...INITIALLY...THE HRRR.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE SFC REFLECTION...OF THE MID LEVEL
WAVE...PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
MAINLY JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS NOTED FOR EAST KENTUCKY. THESE
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT...AS WELL...AFTER MIDNIGHT SETTING THE STAGE
FOR A NIGHT OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING THAT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME
UPPER 40S IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS BY DAWN ALONG WITH AREAS OF
FOG...LOCALLY DENSE TOWARD SUNRISE. IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC WAVE...
THURSDAY WILL SEE A RESURGENT HIGH BUILD INTO EAST KENTUCKY FROM THE
NORTH WHILE THE CLOUDS MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTH. ANY CAA WITH THIS WILL
BE COUNTERACTED BY THE AMPLE SUNSHINE TO YIELD COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...ONCE THE FOG CLEARS.
ANOTHER GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING FOLLOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
PATCHY VALLEY FOG...OR WORSE...ANTICIPATED BY DAWN WHILE TEMPS WILL
FLIRT WITH THE UPPER 40S AGAIN IN THOSE VALLEYS. BOTH TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...SLIGHTLY MILDER READINGS CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE
RIDGES.

THE CONSSHORT WAS USED AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS BEFORE THE SUPER BLEND WAS LOADED IN
THEREAFTER. DID AGAIN NUDGE THE LOWS TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
FOR RIDGE AND VALLEY DIFFERENCES. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP WITH SINGLE
DIGITS THROUGH THE FORECAST...IN-LINE WITH GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

A DRY AIR MASS WILL STILL BE IN PLACE AS THE PERIOD STARTS...WITH
SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND RIDGING
SOUTHWESTWARD...AND A COLD FRONT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. GREATER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LOOMING JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE APPALACHIANS.
MODELS SHOW SOME OF THIS MOISTURE MAKING ITS WAY INTO KY IN THE FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH ON FRIDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF EVEN SHOW PRECIP AS FAR
NW AS OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN BORDER. HOWEVER...THE GFS MOS IS
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT POP AND THE NAM IS DRY...SO WILL STAY WITH A
DRY FORECAST ON FRIDAY. A WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OVER
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA. THE WARMING ALOFT THAT IT BRINGS WILL
RESULT IN A STABLE ATMOSPHERE...DESPITE SURFACE DEW POINTS AND
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO CREEP HIGHER.

THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ITS AMPLIFICATION AND SOUTHEASTWARD
PROGRESS...BRINGING THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD EVENTUALLY PASS THROUGH THE JKL
FORECAST AREA...BUT MODELS ARE STILL NOT LOCKED IN ON SIMILAR
TIMING. A MODEL BLEND WOULD SUGGEST SUNDAY EVENING...AND WILL
CENTER THE HIGHEST POPS AT THAT TIME...BUT WITH TEMPORAL VARIABILITY
IN MODELS...WILL USE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF POPS WITH NOTHING ABOVE
CHANCE CATEGORY AT THIS POINT. ONCE THE SYSTEM PASSES...ANOTHER
LARGE...COOL...AND DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
PASS SLOWLY BY JUST TO OUR NORTH...BRINGING AUTUMN-LIKE WEATHER FOR OUR
LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 835 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO OUR
AREA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME OVERNIGHT. QUESTION IS WILL CLOUD COVER BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO HELP MODERATE FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING FAIRLY RAPIDLY AND SFC DEW POINTS HAVE
ALREADY REBOUNDED AS WELL. THOUGHTS ARE WE WILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE EVENING TIME FRAME...WITH WIDER COVERAGE
RESTRICTED TO THE PRE DAWN HOURS AND SUNRISE AS WE EXPECT SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING. MID LEVEL CLOUDS ROLL THROUGH GENERALLY BETWEEN
05Z AND 10Z OR SO. DENSITY AND COVERAGE OF FOG WILL DEPEND ON
EXACTLY HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WE REALIZE. CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH...
BUT WENT A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST.
KEPT IFR CONDITIONS OR BETTER AT MOST OF OUR TERMINALS. EXCEPTION WAS
SME WHERE LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HOURS LEADING UP TO
SUNRISE. LOOK FOR GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE MORNING. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...RAY








000
FXUS63 KJKL 171935 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
335 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER EAST
KENTUCKY WITH A WAVY FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE. ALONG THE
WESTERN EXTENT OF THIS BOUNDARY...A WAVE HAS DEVELOPED AND IS
RUNNING SOUTHEAST OVER THIS FRONT COMING OUT OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.
LOCALLY THE CLOUDS ARE BREAKING UP THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF
THE CWA...WHILE HOLDING ON A BIT LONGER OVER THE NORTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES VARY MAINLY ACCORDING TO THE AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE...FROM THE MID 60S NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTH.
DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW AND MID 50S THROUGH THE AREA WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS IN PLACE.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS THEY WEAKEN THE LARGE
NORTHEAST TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR NEARLY A WEEK NOW. A
FEW WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THIS
FILLING PROCESS. ANY MODEL DIFFERENCES THAT CROP UP WILL HAVE
RELEVANCE ONLY AFTER THE SHORT TERM PART OF THE FORECAST.
ACCORDINGLY...HAVE FOLLOWED A GENERAL MODEL BLEND AND FOCUSED ON THE
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 42 HOURS AS DEPICTED IN THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND ALSO...INITIALLY...THE HRRR.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE SFC REFLECTION...OF THE MID LEVEL
WAVE...PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
MAINLY JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS NOTED FOR EAST KENTUCKY. THESE
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT...AS WELL...AFTER MIDNIGHT SETTING THE STAGE
FOR A NIGHT OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING THAT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME
UPPER 40S IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS BY DAWN ALONG WITH AREAS OF
FOG...LOCALLY DENSE TOWARD SUNRISE. IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC WAVE...
THURSDAY WILL SEE A RESURGENT HIGH BUILD INTO EAST KENTUCKY FROM THE
NORTH WHILE THE CLOUDS MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTH. ANY CAA WITH THIS WILL
BE COUNTERACTED BY THE AMPLE SUNSHINE TO YIELD COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...ONCE THE FOG CLEARS.
ANOTHER GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING FOLLOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
PATCHY VALLEY FOG...OR WORSE...ANTICIPATED BY DAWN WHILE TEMPS WILL
FLIRT WITH THE UPPER 40S AGAIN IN THOSE VALLEYS. BOTH TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...SLIGHTLY MILDER READINGS CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE
RIDGES.

THE CONSSHORT WAS USED AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS BEFORE THE SUPER BLEND WAS LOADED IN
THEREAFTER. DID AGAIN NUDGE THE LOWS TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
FOR RIDGE AND VALLEY DIFFERENCES. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP WITH SINGLE
DIGITS THROUGH THE FORECAST...IN-LINE WITH GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

A DRY AIR MASS WILL STILL BE IN PLACE AS THE PERIOD STARTS...WITH
SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND RIDGING
SOUTHWESTWARD...AND A COLD FRONT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. GREATER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LOOMING JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE APPALACHIANS.
MODELS SHOW SOME OF THIS MOISTURE MAKING ITS WAY INTO KY IN THE FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH ON FRIDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF EVEN SHOW PRECIP AS FAR
NW AS OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN BORDER. HOWEVER...THE GFS MOS IS
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT POP AND THE NAM IS DRY...SO WILL STAY WITH A
DRY FORECAST ON FRIDAY. A WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OVER
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA. THE WARMING ALOFT THAT IT BRINGS WILL
RESULT IN A STABLE ATMOSPHERE...DESPITE SURFACE DEW POINTS AND
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO CREEP HIGHER.

THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ITS AMPLIFICATION AND SOUTHEASTWARD
PROGRESS...BRINGING THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD EVENTUALLY PASS THROUGH THE JKL
FORECAST AREA...BUT MODELS ARE STILL NOT LOCKED IN ON SIMILAR
TIMING. A MODEL BLEND WOULD SUGGEST SUNDAY EVENING...AND WILL
CENTER THE HIGHEST POPS AT THAT TIME...BUT WITH TEMPORAL VARIABILITY
IN MODELS...WILL USE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF POPS WITH NOTHING ABOVE
CHANCE CATEGORY AT THIS POINT. ONCE THE SYSTEM PASSES...ANOTHER
LARGE...COOL...AND DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
PASS SLOWLY BY JUST TO OUR NORTH...BRINGING AUTUMN-LIKE WEATHER FOR OUR
LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE LAST OF THE MVFR STRATUS IS CLEARING IN THE EAST WITH A PERIOD OF
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND DURING
THE EVENING FOR ALL OF EAST KENTUCKY. THE NEXT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL LIKELY BRING IN ADDITIONAL LOW...BUT VFR...CLOUDS TO EAST
KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. ANY CLEARING BEHIND THIS WILL ENCOURAGE FOG
FORMATION AND PATCHY DENSE DEVELOPMENT BY DAWN. HAVE BROUGHT THE
LOWEST VIS AND...BY VIRTUE...LOW CIGS TO SME AND LOZ WITH LIGHTER
FOG AND HIGHER CIGS ANTICIPATED ELSEWHERE. THE FOG AND ANY LOW CLOUDS
BURN OFF BY 14Z THURSDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW. WINDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...GREIF





000
FXUS63 KJKL 171935 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
335 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER EAST
KENTUCKY WITH A WAVY FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE. ALONG THE
WESTERN EXTENT OF THIS BOUNDARY...A WAVE HAS DEVELOPED AND IS
RUNNING SOUTHEAST OVER THIS FRONT COMING OUT OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.
LOCALLY THE CLOUDS ARE BREAKING UP THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF
THE CWA...WHILE HOLDING ON A BIT LONGER OVER THE NORTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES VARY MAINLY ACCORDING TO THE AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE...FROM THE MID 60S NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTH.
DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW AND MID 50S THROUGH THE AREA WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS IN PLACE.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS THEY WEAKEN THE LARGE
NORTHEAST TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR NEARLY A WEEK NOW. A
FEW WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THIS
FILLING PROCESS. ANY MODEL DIFFERENCES THAT CROP UP WILL HAVE
RELEVANCE ONLY AFTER THE SHORT TERM PART OF THE FORECAST.
ACCORDINGLY...HAVE FOLLOWED A GENERAL MODEL BLEND AND FOCUSED ON THE
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 42 HOURS AS DEPICTED IN THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND ALSO...INITIALLY...THE HRRR.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE SFC REFLECTION...OF THE MID LEVEL
WAVE...PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
MAINLY JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS NOTED FOR EAST KENTUCKY. THESE
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT...AS WELL...AFTER MIDNIGHT SETTING THE STAGE
FOR A NIGHT OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING THAT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME
UPPER 40S IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS BY DAWN ALONG WITH AREAS OF
FOG...LOCALLY DENSE TOWARD SUNRISE. IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC WAVE...
THURSDAY WILL SEE A RESURGENT HIGH BUILD INTO EAST KENTUCKY FROM THE
NORTH WHILE THE CLOUDS MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTH. ANY CAA WITH THIS WILL
BE COUNTERACTED BY THE AMPLE SUNSHINE TO YIELD COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...ONCE THE FOG CLEARS.
ANOTHER GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING FOLLOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
PATCHY VALLEY FOG...OR WORSE...ANTICIPATED BY DAWN WHILE TEMPS WILL
FLIRT WITH THE UPPER 40S AGAIN IN THOSE VALLEYS. BOTH TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...SLIGHTLY MILDER READINGS CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE
RIDGES.

THE CONSSHORT WAS USED AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS BEFORE THE SUPER BLEND WAS LOADED IN
THEREAFTER. DID AGAIN NUDGE THE LOWS TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
FOR RIDGE AND VALLEY DIFFERENCES. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP WITH SINGLE
DIGITS THROUGH THE FORECAST...IN-LINE WITH GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

A DRY AIR MASS WILL STILL BE IN PLACE AS THE PERIOD STARTS...WITH
SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND RIDGING
SOUTHWESTWARD...AND A COLD FRONT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. GREATER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LOOMING JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE APPALACHIANS.
MODELS SHOW SOME OF THIS MOISTURE MAKING ITS WAY INTO KY IN THE FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH ON FRIDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF EVEN SHOW PRECIP AS FAR
NW AS OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN BORDER. HOWEVER...THE GFS MOS IS
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT POP AND THE NAM IS DRY...SO WILL STAY WITH A
DRY FORECAST ON FRIDAY. A WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OVER
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA. THE WARMING ALOFT THAT IT BRINGS WILL
RESULT IN A STABLE ATMOSPHERE...DESPITE SURFACE DEW POINTS AND
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO CREEP HIGHER.

THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ITS AMPLIFICATION AND SOUTHEASTWARD
PROGRESS...BRINGING THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD EVENTUALLY PASS THROUGH THE JKL
FORECAST AREA...BUT MODELS ARE STILL NOT LOCKED IN ON SIMILAR
TIMING. A MODEL BLEND WOULD SUGGEST SUNDAY EVENING...AND WILL
CENTER THE HIGHEST POPS AT THAT TIME...BUT WITH TEMPORAL VARIABILITY
IN MODELS...WILL USE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF POPS WITH NOTHING ABOVE
CHANCE CATEGORY AT THIS POINT. ONCE THE SYSTEM PASSES...ANOTHER
LARGE...COOL...AND DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
PASS SLOWLY BY JUST TO OUR NORTH...BRINGING AUTUMN-LIKE WEATHER FOR OUR
LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE LAST OF THE MVFR STRATUS IS CLEARING IN THE EAST WITH A PERIOD OF
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND DURING
THE EVENING FOR ALL OF EAST KENTUCKY. THE NEXT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL LIKELY BRING IN ADDITIONAL LOW...BUT VFR...CLOUDS TO EAST
KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. ANY CLEARING BEHIND THIS WILL ENCOURAGE FOG
FORMATION AND PATCHY DENSE DEVELOPMENT BY DAWN. HAVE BROUGHT THE
LOWEST VIS AND...BY VIRTUE...LOW CIGS TO SME AND LOZ WITH LIGHTER
FOG AND HIGHER CIGS ANTICIPATED ELSEWHERE. THE FOG AND ANY LOW CLOUDS
BURN OFF BY 14Z THURSDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW. WINDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...GREIF






000
FXUS63 KJKL 171815 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
215 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO FINE TUNE SKY COVER AND AFTERNOON/EVENING POPS
WITH THAT NEXT UPPER WAVE COMING IN. ALSO TWEAKED THE TD AND T GRIDS
PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD
AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1045 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE JUST NUDGING INTO EAST
KENTUCKY FROM THE NORTHEAST. THIS WAS ENOUGH TO CLEAR SOME OF THE
CLOUDS LAST NIGHT ALLOWING FOR DENSE FOG OVER NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF
THE AREA AND JUST PATCHY AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. LOW STRATUS ALSO FORMED
OVER THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA WITH PATCHES LINGERING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE MORNING. THE FOG HAS ALL DISSIPATED AND EXPECT THE LOW
CLOUDS TO FADE BY NOON ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY SOME HIGHER CLOUDS
LATER IN THE DAY MAKING FOR GENERALLY PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. THE
HIGH HAS MODERATED AND COMBINED WITH MORE SUNSHINE TODAY...AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A NOTCH HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT ESPECIALLY IN THE BLUEGRASS REGION WHERE SOME SPOTS DID
NOT GET OUT OF THE LOW 60S DUE TO CLOUDS AND LIGHT PCPN. FOR TODAY...
AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE 40S TO THE NORTH TEMPERATURES THERE ARE
QUICKLY WARMING BACK TOWARD 60 DEGREES WHILE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S
ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE...SLOWED LOCALLY BY THE PATCHY STRATUS THAT IS IN
THE PROCESS OF BREAKING UP. DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW AND
MIDDLE 50S THANKS TO THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND THE COLD
FRONT TO THE SOUTH PULLING AWAY FROM THE STATE. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE CURRENTLY AND WILL LIKELY STAY THAT WAY THROUGH THE DAY. DO
EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF MID AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARRIVING OVER THE
AREA LATER TODAY AS A DECENT SHORTWAVE MOVES PAST TO THE SOUTHWEST
LATER THIS EVENING. AGAIN CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ANY PCPN WITH
THIS BUT AT THE MOST IT WILL BE JUST SOME LATE DAY SPRINKLES...MAINLY
FOR THE SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA. THE FORECAST GRIDS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED TO REFLECT THE ABOVE WITH SOME ADDITIONAL FINE TUNING TO THE
SKY/T/TD ONES TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBS...TREND...AND CONSSHORT
GUIDANCE. A FRESHENED HWO AND ZFP WAS SENT MAINLY TO REMOVE FOG
MENTION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

STRATUS CONTINUES TO EXPAND AND HAS LIMITED THE FOG THIS MORNING.
EVEN THE RIDGES HAVEN`T REALLY GOT INTO THE FOG ALL THAT BADLY YET.
WILL STAY THE COURSE DOWNPLAYING THE FOG THROUGH DAYBREAK. BEST
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL BE IN THE BLUEGRASS REGION WHERE
SKIES HAVE STAYED A BIT MORE CLEAR. NO REAL CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO PROVIDE QUIET
WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. A LAYER O STRATUS
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY AS MOISTURE
REMAINS TRAPPED BELOW A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. INITIALLY...SKIES HAD
CLEARED OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR SOME PATCHY DENSE VALLEY FOG.
HOWEVER..SINCE THEN...STRATUS HAS TAKEN OVER AND IS NOW LIMITED THE
FOG IN THE VALLEYS. STILL A FEW POCKETS OF CLEARING OUT THERE...BUT
EVEN THESE SEEM TO BE FILLING IN. THUS...GOING TO DOWNPLAY THE FOG A
BIT INTO THE MORNING. MAY MAINTAIN THE DENSE FOG ON THE RIDGES AS THE
STRATUS CONTINUES TO BUILD DOWN OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...FOG MAY BE LESS
OF A CONCERN IN THE VALLEYS.

FOG/STRATUS WILL LIFT/BURN OFF FAIRLY BY MID MORNING...WITH SUNSHINE
RETURNING TO THE AREA. THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND 70
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...AND COULD IMPACT POSSIBLE FOG FORMATION. HOWEVER...AT THIS
TIME...SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG FROM FORMING...SO WILL PLAN
TO BEEF UP THE FOG MENTION TONIGHT. QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT AN OVERALL AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL
BE ON TAP FOR THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. INITIALLY...TROUGHING
WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN AND WESTERN CONUS...WITH RIDGING IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION. IN GENERAL...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN
WILL TEMPORARILY FLATTEN OUT BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK...WITH THE
RIDGE EXPANDING MORE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE WEST COAST
TROUGH GRADUALLY BREAKING DOWN. BY THE WEEKEND...RIDGING WILL BE
AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WHILE TROUGHING TAKES SHAPE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES...EVENTUALLY EXPANDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RULE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MODEST RIDGING ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS BUILDING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE
WEEKEND. ON SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AS A DEEPENING
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN VARYING WITH
THE TIMING AND INTENSITY WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND EXPECT FUTURE RUNS
TO CONTINUE THIS TREND...SO WILL STICK WITH THE CONTINUITY THAT THE
BLENDED SOLUTION OFFERS. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES
TO LOOK IN THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO EARLY MONDAY MORNING TIME FRAME.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BACK TO BELOW NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...AND LOWS BACK INTO THE 40S
POSSIBLY BY TUESDAY NIGHT DEPENDING ON CLEARING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE LAST OF THE MVFR STRATUS IS CLEARING IN THE EAST WITH A PERIOD OF
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND DURING
THE EVENING FOR ALL OF EAST KENTUCKY. THE NEXT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL LIKELY BRING IN ADDITIONAL LOW...BUT VFR...CLOUDS TO EAST
KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. ANY CLEARING BEHIND THIS WILL ENCOURAGE FOG
FORMATION AND PATCHY DENSE DEVELOPMENT BY DAWN. HAVE BROUGHT THE
LOWEST VIS AND...BY VIRTUE...LOW CIGS TO SME AND LOZ WITH LIGHTER
FOG AND HIGHER CIGS ANTICIPATED ELSEWHERE. THE FOG AND ANY LOW CLOUDS
BURN OFF BY 14Z THURSDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW. WINDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...GREIF






000
FXUS63 KJKL 171815 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
215 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO FINE TUNE SKY COVER AND AFTERNOON/EVENING POPS
WITH THAT NEXT UPPER WAVE COMING IN. ALSO TWEAKED THE TD AND T GRIDS
PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD
AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1045 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE JUST NUDGING INTO EAST
KENTUCKY FROM THE NORTHEAST. THIS WAS ENOUGH TO CLEAR SOME OF THE
CLOUDS LAST NIGHT ALLOWING FOR DENSE FOG OVER NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF
THE AREA AND JUST PATCHY AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. LOW STRATUS ALSO FORMED
OVER THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA WITH PATCHES LINGERING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE MORNING. THE FOG HAS ALL DISSIPATED AND EXPECT THE LOW
CLOUDS TO FADE BY NOON ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY SOME HIGHER CLOUDS
LATER IN THE DAY MAKING FOR GENERALLY PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. THE
HIGH HAS MODERATED AND COMBINED WITH MORE SUNSHINE TODAY...AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A NOTCH HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT ESPECIALLY IN THE BLUEGRASS REGION WHERE SOME SPOTS DID
NOT GET OUT OF THE LOW 60S DUE TO CLOUDS AND LIGHT PCPN. FOR TODAY...
AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE 40S TO THE NORTH TEMPERATURES THERE ARE
QUICKLY WARMING BACK TOWARD 60 DEGREES WHILE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S
ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE...SLOWED LOCALLY BY THE PATCHY STRATUS THAT IS IN
THE PROCESS OF BREAKING UP. DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW AND
MIDDLE 50S THANKS TO THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND THE COLD
FRONT TO THE SOUTH PULLING AWAY FROM THE STATE. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE CURRENTLY AND WILL LIKELY STAY THAT WAY THROUGH THE DAY. DO
EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF MID AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARRIVING OVER THE
AREA LATER TODAY AS A DECENT SHORTWAVE MOVES PAST TO THE SOUTHWEST
LATER THIS EVENING. AGAIN CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ANY PCPN WITH
THIS BUT AT THE MOST IT WILL BE JUST SOME LATE DAY SPRINKLES...MAINLY
FOR THE SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA. THE FORECAST GRIDS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED TO REFLECT THE ABOVE WITH SOME ADDITIONAL FINE TUNING TO THE
SKY/T/TD ONES TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBS...TREND...AND CONSSHORT
GUIDANCE. A FRESHENED HWO AND ZFP WAS SENT MAINLY TO REMOVE FOG
MENTION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

STRATUS CONTINUES TO EXPAND AND HAS LIMITED THE FOG THIS MORNING.
EVEN THE RIDGES HAVEN`T REALLY GOT INTO THE FOG ALL THAT BADLY YET.
WILL STAY THE COURSE DOWNPLAYING THE FOG THROUGH DAYBREAK. BEST
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL BE IN THE BLUEGRASS REGION WHERE
SKIES HAVE STAYED A BIT MORE CLEAR. NO REAL CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO PROVIDE QUIET
WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. A LAYER O STRATUS
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY AS MOISTURE
REMAINS TRAPPED BELOW A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. INITIALLY...SKIES HAD
CLEARED OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR SOME PATCHY DENSE VALLEY FOG.
HOWEVER..SINCE THEN...STRATUS HAS TAKEN OVER AND IS NOW LIMITED THE
FOG IN THE VALLEYS. STILL A FEW POCKETS OF CLEARING OUT THERE...BUT
EVEN THESE SEEM TO BE FILLING IN. THUS...GOING TO DOWNPLAY THE FOG A
BIT INTO THE MORNING. MAY MAINTAIN THE DENSE FOG ON THE RIDGES AS THE
STRATUS CONTINUES TO BUILD DOWN OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...FOG MAY BE LESS
OF A CONCERN IN THE VALLEYS.

FOG/STRATUS WILL LIFT/BURN OFF FAIRLY BY MID MORNING...WITH SUNSHINE
RETURNING TO THE AREA. THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND 70
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...AND COULD IMPACT POSSIBLE FOG FORMATION. HOWEVER...AT THIS
TIME...SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG FROM FORMING...SO WILL PLAN
TO BEEF UP THE FOG MENTION TONIGHT. QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT AN OVERALL AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL
BE ON TAP FOR THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. INITIALLY...TROUGHING
WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN AND WESTERN CONUS...WITH RIDGING IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION. IN GENERAL...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN
WILL TEMPORARILY FLATTEN OUT BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK...WITH THE
RIDGE EXPANDING MORE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE WEST COAST
TROUGH GRADUALLY BREAKING DOWN. BY THE WEEKEND...RIDGING WILL BE
AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WHILE TROUGHING TAKES SHAPE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES...EVENTUALLY EXPANDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RULE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MODEST RIDGING ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS BUILDING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE
WEEKEND. ON SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AS A DEEPENING
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN VARYING WITH
THE TIMING AND INTENSITY WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND EXPECT FUTURE RUNS
TO CONTINUE THIS TREND...SO WILL STICK WITH THE CONTINUITY THAT THE
BLENDED SOLUTION OFFERS. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES
TO LOOK IN THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO EARLY MONDAY MORNING TIME FRAME.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BACK TO BELOW NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...AND LOWS BACK INTO THE 40S
POSSIBLY BY TUESDAY NIGHT DEPENDING ON CLEARING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE LAST OF THE MVFR STRATUS IS CLEARING IN THE EAST WITH A PERIOD OF
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND DURING
THE EVENING FOR ALL OF EAST KENTUCKY. THE NEXT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL LIKELY BRING IN ADDITIONAL LOW...BUT VFR...CLOUDS TO EAST
KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. ANY CLEARING BEHIND THIS WILL ENCOURAGE FOG
FORMATION AND PATCHY DENSE DEVELOPMENT BY DAWN. HAVE BROUGHT THE
LOWEST VIS AND...BY VIRTUE...LOW CIGS TO SME AND LOZ WITH LIGHTER
FOG AND HIGHER CIGS ANTICIPATED ELSEWHERE. THE FOG AND ANY LOW CLOUDS
BURN OFF BY 14Z THURSDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW. WINDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...GREIF







000
FXUS63 KJKL 171445 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1045 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE JUST NUDGING INTO EAST
KENTUCKY FROM THE NORTHEAST. THIS WAS ENOUGH TO CLEAR SOME OF THE
CLOUDS LAST NIGHT ALLOWING FOR DENSE FOG OVER NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF
THE AREA AND JUST PATCHY AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. LOW STRATUS ALSO FORMED
OVER THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA WITH PATCHES LINGERING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE MORNING. THE FOG HAS ALL DISSIPATED AND EXPECT THE LOW
CLOUDS TO FADE BY NOON ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY SOME HIGHER CLOUDS
LATER IN THE DAY MAKING FOR GENERALLY PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. THE
HIGH HAS MODERATED AND COMBINED WITH MORE SUNSHINE TODAY...AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A NOTCH HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT ESPECIALLY IN THE BLUEGRASS REGION WHERE SOME SPOTS DID
NOT GET OUT OF THE LOW 60S DUE TO CLOUDS AND LIGHT PCPN. FOR TODAY...
AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE 40S TO THE NORTH TEMPERATURES THERE ARE
QUICKLY WARMING BACK TOWARD 60 DEGREES WHILE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S
ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE...SLOWED LOCALLY BY THE PATCHY STRATUS THAT IS IN
THE PROCESS OF BREAKING UP. DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW AND
MIDDLE 50S THANKS TO THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND THE COLD
FRONT TO THE SOUTH PULLING AWAY FROM THE STATE. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE CURRENTLY AND WILL LIKELY STAY THAT WAY THROUGH THE DAY. DO
EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF MID AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARRIVING OVER THE
AREA LATER TODAY AS A DECENT SHORTWAVE MOVES PAST TO THE SOUTHWEST
LATER THIS EVENING. AGAIN CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ANY PCPN WITH
THIS BUT AT THE MOST IT WILL BE JUST SOME LATE DAY SPRINKLES...MAINLY
FOR THE SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA. THE FORECAST GRIDS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED TO REFLECT THE ABOVE WITH SOME ADDITIONAL FINE TUNING TO THE
SKY/T/TD ONES TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBS...TREND...AND CONSSHORT
GUIDANCE. A FRESHENED HWO AND ZFP WAS SENT MAINLY TO REMOVE FOG
MENTION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

STRATUS CONTINUES TO EXPAND AND HAS LIMITED THE FOG THIS MORNING.
EVEN THE RIDGES HAVEN`T REALLY GOT INTO THE FOG ALL THAT BADLY YET.
WILL STAY THE COURSE DOWNPLAYING THE FOG THROUGH DAYBREAK. BEST
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL BE IN THE BLUEGRASS REGION WHERE
SKIES HAVE STAYED A BIT MORE CLEAR. NO REAL CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO PROVIDE QUIET
WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. A LAYER O STRATUS
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY AS MOISTURE
REMAINS TRAPPED BELOW A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. INITIALLY...SKIES HAD
CLEARED OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR SOME PATCHY DENSE VALLEY FOG.
HOWEVER..SINCE THEN...STRATUS HAS TAKEN OVER AND IS NOW LIMITED THE
FOG IN THE VALLEYS. STILL A FEW POCKETS OF CLEARING OUT THERE...BUT
EVEN THESE SEEM TO BE FILLING IN. THUS...GOING TO DOWNPLAY THE FOG A
BIT INTO THE MORNING. MAY MAINTAIN THE DENSE FOG ON THE RIDGES AS THE
STRATUS CONTINUES TO BUILD DOWN OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...FOG MAY BE LESS
OF A CONCERN IN THE VALLEYS.

FOG/STRATUS WILL LIFT/BURN OFF FAIRLY BY MID MORNING...WITH SUNSHINE
RETURNING TO THE AREA. THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND 70
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...AND COULD IMPACT POSSIBLE FOG FORMATION. HOWEVER...AT THIS
TIME...SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG FROM FORMING...SO WILL PLAN
TO BEEF UP THE FOG MENTION TONIGHT. QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT AN OVERALL AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL
BE ON TAP FOR THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. INITIALLY...TROUGHING
WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN AND WESTERN CONUS...WITH RIDGING IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION. IN GENERAL...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN
WILL TEMPORARILY FLATTEN OUT BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK...WITH THE
RIDGE EXPANDING MORE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE WEST COAST
TROUGH GRADUALLY BREAKING DOWN. BY THE WEEKEND...RIDGING WILL BE
AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WHILE TROUGHING TAKES SHAPE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES...EVENTUALLY EXPANDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RULE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MODEST RIDGING ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS BUILDING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE
WEEKEND. ON SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AS A DEEPENING
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN VARYING WITH
THE TIMING AND INTENSITY WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND EXPECT FUTURE RUNS
TO CONTINUE THIS TREND...SO WILL STICK WITH THE CONTINUITY THAT THE
BLENDED SOLUTION OFFERS. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES
TO LOOK IN THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO EARLY MONDAY MORNING TIME FRAME.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BACK TO BELOW NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...AND LOWS BACK INTO THE 40S
POSSIBLY BY TUESDAY NIGHT DEPENDING ON CLEARING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 658 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

STRATUS CONTINUES TO HOLD ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY THIS
MORNING. CIGS RANGE QUITE A BIT ACROSS THE AREA ANYWHERE FROM JUST
BELOW 1000 FEET UP TO 5KFT. WE SHOULD SEE QUICK IMPROVEMENT AFTER
DAYBREAK AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO ERODE. WE SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS FOR ALL AREAS BY MID TO LATE MORNING. A BETTER FOG
POTENTIAL NIGHT WILL EXIST TONIGHT...BUT MAY BE LIMITED MORE TO THE
RIVER VALLEYS AND MAY NOT IMPACT TAF SITES ALL THAT MUCH. IT REALLY
DEPENDS ON HOW WELL WE MIX DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. IF WE
CAN MIX ENOUGH DRIER AIR INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WE MAY AVOID MUCH
OF THE FOG TONIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...KAS






000
FXUS63 KJKL 171445 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1045 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE JUST NUDGING INTO EAST
KENTUCKY FROM THE NORTHEAST. THIS WAS ENOUGH TO CLEAR SOME OF THE
CLOUDS LAST NIGHT ALLOWING FOR DENSE FOG OVER NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF
THE AREA AND JUST PATCHY AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. LOW STRATUS ALSO FORMED
OVER THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA WITH PATCHES LINGERING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE MORNING. THE FOG HAS ALL DISSIPATED AND EXPECT THE LOW
CLOUDS TO FADE BY NOON ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY SOME HIGHER CLOUDS
LATER IN THE DAY MAKING FOR GENERALLY PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. THE
HIGH HAS MODERATED AND COMBINED WITH MORE SUNSHINE TODAY...AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A NOTCH HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT ESPECIALLY IN THE BLUEGRASS REGION WHERE SOME SPOTS DID
NOT GET OUT OF THE LOW 60S DUE TO CLOUDS AND LIGHT PCPN. FOR TODAY...
AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE 40S TO THE NORTH TEMPERATURES THERE ARE
QUICKLY WARMING BACK TOWARD 60 DEGREES WHILE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S
ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE...SLOWED LOCALLY BY THE PATCHY STRATUS THAT IS IN
THE PROCESS OF BREAKING UP. DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW AND
MIDDLE 50S THANKS TO THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND THE COLD
FRONT TO THE SOUTH PULLING AWAY FROM THE STATE. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE CURRENTLY AND WILL LIKELY STAY THAT WAY THROUGH THE DAY. DO
EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF MID AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARRIVING OVER THE
AREA LATER TODAY AS A DECENT SHORTWAVE MOVES PAST TO THE SOUTHWEST
LATER THIS EVENING. AGAIN CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ANY PCPN WITH
THIS BUT AT THE MOST IT WILL BE JUST SOME LATE DAY SPRINKLES...MAINLY
FOR THE SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA. THE FORECAST GRIDS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED TO REFLECT THE ABOVE WITH SOME ADDITIONAL FINE TUNING TO THE
SKY/T/TD ONES TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBS...TREND...AND CONSSHORT
GUIDANCE. A FRESHENED HWO AND ZFP WAS SENT MAINLY TO REMOVE FOG
MENTION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

STRATUS CONTINUES TO EXPAND AND HAS LIMITED THE FOG THIS MORNING.
EVEN THE RIDGES HAVEN`T REALLY GOT INTO THE FOG ALL THAT BADLY YET.
WILL STAY THE COURSE DOWNPLAYING THE FOG THROUGH DAYBREAK. BEST
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL BE IN THE BLUEGRASS REGION WHERE
SKIES HAVE STAYED A BIT MORE CLEAR. NO REAL CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO PROVIDE QUIET
WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. A LAYER O STRATUS
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY AS MOISTURE
REMAINS TRAPPED BELOW A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. INITIALLY...SKIES HAD
CLEARED OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR SOME PATCHY DENSE VALLEY FOG.
HOWEVER..SINCE THEN...STRATUS HAS TAKEN OVER AND IS NOW LIMITED THE
FOG IN THE VALLEYS. STILL A FEW POCKETS OF CLEARING OUT THERE...BUT
EVEN THESE SEEM TO BE FILLING IN. THUS...GOING TO DOWNPLAY THE FOG A
BIT INTO THE MORNING. MAY MAINTAIN THE DENSE FOG ON THE RIDGES AS THE
STRATUS CONTINUES TO BUILD DOWN OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...FOG MAY BE LESS
OF A CONCERN IN THE VALLEYS.

FOG/STRATUS WILL LIFT/BURN OFF FAIRLY BY MID MORNING...WITH SUNSHINE
RETURNING TO THE AREA. THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND 70
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...AND COULD IMPACT POSSIBLE FOG FORMATION. HOWEVER...AT THIS
TIME...SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG FROM FORMING...SO WILL PLAN
TO BEEF UP THE FOG MENTION TONIGHT. QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT AN OVERALL AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL
BE ON TAP FOR THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. INITIALLY...TROUGHING
WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN AND WESTERN CONUS...WITH RIDGING IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION. IN GENERAL...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN
WILL TEMPORARILY FLATTEN OUT BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK...WITH THE
RIDGE EXPANDING MORE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE WEST COAST
TROUGH GRADUALLY BREAKING DOWN. BY THE WEEKEND...RIDGING WILL BE
AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WHILE TROUGHING TAKES SHAPE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES...EVENTUALLY EXPANDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RULE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MODEST RIDGING ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS BUILDING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE
WEEKEND. ON SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AS A DEEPENING
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN VARYING WITH
THE TIMING AND INTENSITY WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND EXPECT FUTURE RUNS
TO CONTINUE THIS TREND...SO WILL STICK WITH THE CONTINUITY THAT THE
BLENDED SOLUTION OFFERS. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES
TO LOOK IN THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO EARLY MONDAY MORNING TIME FRAME.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BACK TO BELOW NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...AND LOWS BACK INTO THE 40S
POSSIBLY BY TUESDAY NIGHT DEPENDING ON CLEARING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 658 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

STRATUS CONTINUES TO HOLD ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY THIS
MORNING. CIGS RANGE QUITE A BIT ACROSS THE AREA ANYWHERE FROM JUST
BELOW 1000 FEET UP TO 5KFT. WE SHOULD SEE QUICK IMPROVEMENT AFTER
DAYBREAK AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO ERODE. WE SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS FOR ALL AREAS BY MID TO LATE MORNING. A BETTER FOG
POTENTIAL NIGHT WILL EXIST TONIGHT...BUT MAY BE LIMITED MORE TO THE
RIVER VALLEYS AND MAY NOT IMPACT TAF SITES ALL THAT MUCH. IT REALLY
DEPENDS ON HOW WELL WE MIX DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. IF WE
CAN MIX ENOUGH DRIER AIR INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WE MAY AVOID MUCH
OF THE FOG TONIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...KAS





000
FXUS63 KJKL 171058
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
658 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 658 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

STRATUS CONTINUES TO EXPAND AND HAS LIMITED THE FOG THIS MORNING.
EVEN THE RIDGES HAVEN`T REALLY GOT INTO THE FOG ALL THAT BADLY YET.
WILL STAY THE COURSE DOWNPLAYING THE FOG THROUGH DAYBREAK. BEST
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL BE IN THE BLUEGRASS REGION WHERE
SKIES HAVE STAYED A BIT MORE CLEAR. NO REAL CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO PROVIDE QUIET
WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. A LAYER O STRATUS
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY AS MOISTURE
REMAINS TRAPPED BELOW A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. INITIALLY...SKIES HAD
CLEARED OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR SOME PATCHY DENSE VALLEY FOG.
HOWEVER..SINCE THEN...STRATUS HAS TAKEN OVER AND IS NOW LIMITED THE
FOG IN THE VALLEYS. STILL A FEW POCKETS OF CLEARING OUT THERE...BUT
EVEN THESE SEEM TO BE FILLING IN. THUS...GOING TO DOWNPLAY THE FOG A
BIT INTO THE MORNING. MAY MAINTAIN THE DENSE FOG ON THE RIDGES AS THE
STRATUS CONTINUES TO BUILD DOWN OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...FOG MAY BE LESS
OF A CONCERN IN THE VALLEYS.

FOG/STRATUS WILL LIFT/BURN OFF FAIRLY BY MID MORNING...WITH SUNSHINE
RETURNING TO THE AREA. THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND 70
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...AND COULD IMPACT POSSIBLE FOG FORMATION. HOWEVER...AT THIS
TIME...SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG FROM FORMING...SO WILL PLAN
TO BEEF UP THE FOG MENTION TONIGHT. QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT AN OVERALL AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL
BE ON TAP FOR THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. INITIALLY...TROUGHING
WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN AND WESTERN CONUS...WITH RIDGING IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION. IN GENERAL...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN
WILL TEMPORARILY FLATTEN OUT BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK...WITH THE
RIDGE EXPANDING MORE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE WEST COAST
TROUGH GRADUALLY BREAKING DOWN. BY THE WEEKEND...RIDGING WILL BE
AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WHILE TROUGHING TAKES SHAPE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES...EVENTUALLY EXPANDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RULE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MODEST RIDGING ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS BUILDING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE
WEEKEND. ON SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AS A DEEPENING
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN VARYING WITH
THE TIMING AND INTENSITY WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND EXPECT FUTURE RUNS
TO CONTINUE THIS TREND...SO WILL STICK WITH THE CONTINUITY THAT THE
BLENDED SOLUTION OFFERS. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES
TO LOOK IN THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO EARLY MONDAY MORNING TIME FRAME.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BACK TO BELOW NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...AND LOWS BACK INTO THE 40S
POSSIBLY BY TUESDAY NIGHT DEPENDING ON CLEARING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 658 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

STRATUS CONTINUES TO HOLD ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY THIS
MORNING. CIGS RANGE QUITE A BIT ACROSS THE AREA ANYWHERE FROM JUST
BELOW 1000 FEET UP TO 5KFT. WE SHOULD SEE QUICK IMPROVEMENT AFTER
DAYBREAK AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO ERODE. WE SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS FOR ALL AREAS BY MID TO LATE MORNING. A BETTER FOG
POTENTIAL NIGHT WILL EXIST TONIGHT...BUT MAY BE LIMITED MORE TO THE
RIVER VALLEYS AND MAY NOT IMPACT TAF SITES ALL THAT MUCH. IT REALLY
DEPENDS ON HOW WELL WE MIX DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. IF WE
CAN MIX ENOUGH DRIER AIR INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WE MAY AVOID MUCH
OF THE FOG TONIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...KAS







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