Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS63 KJKL 270810
AFDJKL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson KY
410 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 410 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

We remain in a stagnant pattern which is slow to change. Upper
level ridging was over the southeast ConUS, and a large trough
over the western ConUS. Near the periphery of the ridge, we are
seeing rounds of convection at times. Convection tends to build
once daytime destabilization occurs, but may also occur in a less
intense fashion during the night and morning. Features responsible
for focusing convection are subtle, making detailed forecasting
difficult. That being said, have made a best attempt at it using
a blend of model solutions. Light showers ongoing over the
northern part of the JKL forecast area early this morning
shouldn`t amount to much. Models suggest convection will initiate
with destabilization over the higher terrain of the Appalachians
today, and then propagate northward in weak steering currents
during the late afternoon and evening. This activity dies out
during the night. Next, a plume of deeper moisture rotating around
the large scale trough to our west will makes its way east across
KY tonight and Saturday. This is the feature favored for our next
round of convective development, with the best chance on Saturday
being in our northern and western counties.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 325 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

At upper levels, a shortwave trough is expected to lift out of
the plains into the Great Lakes region Sunday. Energy from this
shortwave trough should move into the region, bringing the
potential for more widespread showers over the weekend.
Interestingly enough, the first tropical system of the hurricane
season appears to form just off the carolina coast and move
onshore on Sunday as well. Due to a high block in the Atlantic,
this subtropical low will be stagnant over the Carolinas through
the first half of the new work week. Eastern Kentucky will likely
be stuck between active weather over the plains and rain along the
East Coast. However, afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be
possible almost every day with peak heating. Tuesday looks to be
the driest day as high pressure builds over Kentucky.

Another shortwave trough and low pressure system embedded in the
northern stream is progged to traverse the northern CONUS during
the second half of the week with energy potentially extending
southward and moving across our area. This system may be enough to
kick the subtropical system out of the Carolinas, or could ingest
its energy and bring it towards our region. Either way, there is
still too much model to model discontinuity regarding these
features to have much confidence in the forecast. The best
confidence belongs to the weekend period where both GFS and ECMWF
models show more frequent showers as the upper trough passes by to
our northwest.

Temperatures will be more summer-like throughout the extended
period with highs in the lower 80s and lows in the lower 60s. The
normal high temperature for this time of year is in the upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 147 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

Localized fog was affecting a few places late tonight, but most
of the area (including reporting TAF sites) had vfr conditions at
TAF issuance. Mid and high level clouds were abundant, but were on
an overall decline, and that trend should continue through the
morning. This will allow continued cooling of our already moist
air, which will allow more fog to develop. Non ridgetop sites are
forecast to fall to MVFR or IFR, but it is not a high confidence
forecast. Conditions will improve after sunrise, with all
locations expected to return to VFR during the morning. After
heating and destabilization on Friday, scattered showers and
thunderstorms could develop in the afternoon and last into the
evening.

&&

.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...HAL





000
FXUS63 KJKL 270725
AFDJKL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson KY
325 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 325 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

The short term discussion will be issued shortly.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 325 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

At upper levels, a shortwave trough is expected to lift out of
the plains into the Great Lakes region Sunday. Energy from this
shortwave trough should move into the region, bringing the
potential for more widespread showers over the weekend.
Interestingly enough, the first tropical system of the hurricane
season appears to form just off the carolina coast and move
onshore on Sunday as well. Due to a high block in the Atlantic,
this subtropical low will be stagnant over the Carolinas through
the first half of the new work week. Eastern Kentucky will likely
be stuck between active weather over the plains and rain along the
East Coast. However, afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be
possible almost every day with peak heating. Tuesday looks to be
the driest day as high pressure builds over Kentucky.

Another shortwave trough and low pressure system embedded in the
northern stream is progged to traverse the northern CONUS during
the second half of the week with energy potentially extending
southward and moving across our area. This system may be enough to
kick the subtropical system out of the Carolinas, or could ingest
its energy and bring it towards our region. Either way, there is
still too much model to model discontinuity regarding these
features to have much confidence in the forecast. The best
confidence belongs to the weekend period where both GFS and ECMWF
models show more frequent showers as the upper trough passes by to
our northwest.

Temperatures will be more summer-like throughout the extended
period with highs in the lower 80s and lows in the lower 60s. The
normal high temperature for this time of year is in the upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 147 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

Localized fog was affecting a few places late tonight, but most
of the area (including reporting TAF sites) had vfr conditions at
TAF issuance. Mid and high level clouds were abundant, but were on
an overall decline, and that trend should continue through the
morning. This will allow continued cooling of our already moist
air, which will allow more fog to develop. Non ridgetop sites are
forecast to fall to MVFR or IFR, but it is not a high confidence
forecast. Conditions will improve after sunrise, with all
locations expected to return to VFR during the morning. After
heating and destabilization on Friday, scattered showers and
thunderstorms could develop in the afternoon and last into the
evening.

&&

.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...HAL





000
FXUS63 KJKL 270136
AFDJKL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson KY
936 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 933 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

The line of showers has dissipated and the area is relatively
clear. Have updated to remove pops from the early tonight period.
The forecast issue through tonight will be cloud cover as any
breaks will allow fog to develop. Have put fog in the forecast and
also in the HWO for tonight. The other forecast problem tonight
will be the lifting of a warm front into the area. While weak and
vague due to convection earlier, this may provide enough forcing
for a few showers over the north to develop towards dawn.

UPDATE Issued at 618 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

Current conditions feature a weakening line of showers and
thunderstorms moving into eastern Kentucky. These storms will
continue with a weakening trend through the evening as they
continue to move into a more unfavorable environment. In fact, hi
resolution models indicate a complete dissipation by 06z. Have
adjusted the forecast to account for this and updated the current
obs as the rain cooled air has dropped temps across the area this
evening. Later tonight, a warm front looks to lift north through
the area as some weak forcing may be enough for a few showers to
develop over the north towards dawn. Have put in a slight chance
of showers for this possibility.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 359 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

Strong troughing across the southwest conus and ridging for the
southeast conus has led to SW to NE flow aloft across the
mississippi and Ohio River Valley. Several short waves continue to
eject ne along this flow and into the Ohio River Valley, including
the one that spawned a strong line of showers and thunderstorms this
morning over western KY and Illinois. This line has sustained itself
throughout the day and is now traversing central KY. Decent
instability present, along with good mid level drying, have led to
several of these storms going severe. Most of the hi res models have
had a fairly good handle on this system through the afternoon, with
preference for the HRRR which has been initializing well since this
morning. They also all have this line weakening as it moves into our
western CWA, then quickly dissipating as it moves east late this
afternoon/evening.

Forecast soundings show good CAPE, LI`s -6 to -8, and steep lapse
rates. However our shear is lacking, and strong storms will likely
not be able to sustain themselves. As such, agree with models to a
certain degree. We could still see some isolated embedded cells that
could pop up to severe limits, or produce small hail at the least.
But do agree that there will be a diminishing trend as we head into
the evening.

By overnight, this line of showers and thunderstorms will move
eastward out of the region. High pressure will take hold, generally
to our southeast, leaving southerly flow across the region. The
continued moisture influx, in addition to the lingering moisture and
a night time inversion taking hold, could lead to fog development
across the CWA, especially in the valley locations.

High pressure will remain in control tomorrow. However southerly
flow will continue, allowing temps to easily climb into the mid and
even upper 80s by the afternoon. With that southerly flow will also
come moisture, so diurnal CU development will be likely. Afternoon
instability will also be in place, so scattered showers and
thunderstorms may develop for the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 330 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

We begin the period more influenced by the upper level ridge
extending west out of the Mid Atlantic Coast, while upper level
closed low resides in the Central Plains states. Overall better
PVA will remain east of the region, but enough influence to
include some higher chance pops mainly toward the northern and
western portion of the CWA on Saturday and Sunday. Now moving into
the first part of the work week more uncertainty exists with
regard to waves and any residual down stream storm complexes that
hold together. Also another complication exists in the tropics
with potential for a developing tropical system near the Carolina
Coast line. Right now the GFS has been the most volatile with
little continuity run to run, while the ECMWF seems to be more
consistent. The influence from this overall should reside latter
portion of the long term period, therefore for now will stick with
model blend approach for now. This especially as shear will be nil
through the long period leading to little if any organization of
storms. Toward the very end of the period ridging breaks down more
allowing for more height falls. This will lead to higher chance
pops by Thursday given this looks to be the overall best synoptic
feature we have seen. Given the ridging a more summer time feel
will remain in place through the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

Showers and thunderstorms moving through the area have begun to
dissipate and will likely be out of the area by 03z. Have adjusted
the TAFs to account for the dissipation of the activity. With many
locations seeing rain this evening, and a warm front lifting north
tonight, a few locations may see some breaks in the cloud cover
that will lead to some fog development. Have put fog in most TAFs
with a dissipation expected by 14z. The boundary stopping across
northern Kentucky tonight may lead to a few showers developing
towards dawn as well. Conditions should remain stable through the
morning before afternoon convection sets up again tomorrow
afternoon with the bulk of the showers and storms in the far east.
Winds will be relatively light through the period.

&&

.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER





000
FXUS63 KJKL 262356
AFDJKL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson KY
756 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 618 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

Current conditions feature a weakening line of showers and
thunderstorms moving into eastern Kentucky. These storms will
continue with a weakening trend through the evening as they
continue to move into a more unfavorable environment. In fact, hi
resolution models indicate a complete dissipation by 06z. Have
adjusted the forecast to account for this and updated the current
obs as the rain cooled air has dropped temps across the area this
evening. Later tonight, a warm front looks to lift north through
the area as some weak forcing may be enough for a few showers to
develop over the north towards dawn. Have put in a slight chance
of showers for this possibility.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 359 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

Strong troughing across the southwest conus and ridging for the
southeast conus has led to SW to NE flow aloft across the
mississippi and Ohio River Valley. Several short waves continue to
eject ne along this flow and into the Ohio River Valley, including
the one that spawned a strong line of showers and thunderstorms this
morning over western KY and Illinois. This line has sustained itself
throughout the day and is now traversing central KY. Decent
instability present, along with good mid level drying, have led to
several of these storms going severe. Most of the hi res models have
had a fairly good handle on this system through the afternoon, with
preference for the HRRR which has been initializing well since this
morning. They also all have this line weakening as it moves into our
western CWA, then quickly dissipating as it moves east late this
afternoon/evening.

Forecast soundings show good CAPE, LI`s -6 to -8, and steep lapse
rates. However our shear is lacking, and strong storms will likely
not be able to sustain themselves. As such, agree with models to a
certain degree. We could still see some isolated embedded cells that
could pop up to severe limits, or produce small hail at the least.
But do agree that there will be a diminishing trend as we head into
the evening.

By overnight, this line of showers and thunderstorms will move
eastward out of the region. High pressure will take hold, generally
to our southeast, leaving southerly flow across the region. The
continued moisture influx, in addition to the lingering moisture and
a night time inversion taking hold, could lead to fog development
across the CWA, especially in the valley locations.

High pressure will remain in control tomorrow. However southerly
flow will continue, allowing temps to easily climb into the mid and
even upper 80s by the afternoon. With that southerly flow will also
come moisture, so diurnal CU development will be likely. Afternoon
instability will also be in place, so scattered showers and
thunderstorms may develop for the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 330 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

We begin the period more influenced by the upper level ridge
extending west out of the Mid Atlantic Coast, while upper level
closed low resides in the Central Plains states. Overall better
PVA will remain east of the region, but enough influence to
include some higher chance pops mainly toward the northern and
western portion of the CWA on Saturday and Sunday. Now moving into
the first part of the work week more uncertainty exists with
regard to waves and any residual down stream storm complexes that
hold together. Also another complication exists in the tropics
with potential for a developing tropical system near the Carolina
Coast line. Right now the GFS has been the most volatile with
little continuity run to run, while the ECMWF seems to be more
consistent. The influence from this overall should reside latter
portion of the long term period, therefore for now will stick with
model blend approach for now. This especially as shear will be nil
through the long period leading to little if any organization of
storms. Toward the very end of the period ridging breaks down more
allowing for more height falls. This will lead to higher chance
pops by Thursday given this looks to be the overall best synoptic
feature we have seen. Given the ridging a more summer time feel
will remain in place through the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

Showers and thunderstorms moving through the area have begun to
dissipate and will likely be out of the area by 03z. Have adjusted
the TAFs to account for the dissipation of the activity. With many
locations seeing rain this evening, and a warm front lifting north
tonight, a few locations may see some breaks in the cloud cover
that will lead to some fog development. Have put fog in most TAFs
with a dissipation expected by 14z. The boundary stopping across
northern Kentucky tonight may lead to a few showers developing
towards dawn as well. Conditions should remain stable through the
morning before afternoon convection sets up again tomorrow
afternoon with the bulk of the showers and storms in the far east.
Winds will be relatively light through the period.

&&

.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER





000
FXUS63 KJKL 261959
AFDJKL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson KY
359 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 359 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

Strong troughing across the southwest conus and ridging for the
southeast conus has led to SW to NE flow aloft across the
mississippi and Ohio River Valley. Several short waves continue to
eject ne along this flow and into the Ohio River Valley, including
the one that spawned a strong line of showers and thunderstorms this
morning over western KY and Illinois. This line has sustained itself
throughout the day and is now traversing central KY. Decent
instability present, along with good mid level drying, have led to
several of these storms going severe. Most of the hi res models have
had a fairly good handle on this system through the afternoon, with
preference for the HRRR which has been initializing well since this
morning. They also all have this line weakening as it moves into our
western CWA, then quickly dissipating as it moves east late this
afternoon/evening.

Forecast soundings show good CAPE, LI`s -6 to -8, and steep lapse
rates. However our shear is lacking, and strong storms will likely
not be able to sustain themselves. As such, agree with models to a
certain degree. We could still see some isolated embedded cells that
could pop up to severe limits, or produce small hail at the least.
But do agree that there will be a diminishing trend as we head into
the evening.

By overnight, this line of showers and thunderstorms will move
eastward out of the region. High pressure will take hold, generally
to our southeast, leaving southerly flow across the region. The
continued moisture influx, in addition to the lingering moisture and
a night time inversion taking hold, could lead to fog development
across the CWA, especially in the valley locations.

High pressure will remain in control tomorrow. However southerly
flow will continue, allowing temps to easily climb into the mid and
even upper 80s by the afternoon. With that southerly flow will also
come moisture, so diurnal CU development will be likely. Afternoon
instability will also be in place, so scattered showers and
thunderstorms may develop for the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 330 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

We begin the period more influenced by the upper level ridge
extending west out of the Mid Atlantic Coast, while upper level
closed low resides in the Central Plains states. Overall better
PVA will remain east of the region, but enough influence to
include some higher chance pops mainly toward the northern and
western portion of the CWA on Saturday and Sunday. Now moving into
the first part of the work week more uncertainty exists with
regard to waves and any residual down stream storm complexes that
hold together. Also another complication exists in the tropics
with potential for a developing tropical system near the Carolina
Coast line. Right now the GFS has been the most volatile with
little continuity run to run, while the ECMWF seems to be more
consistent. The influence from this overall should reside latter
portion of the long term period, therefore for now will stick with
model blend approach for now. This especially as shear will be nil
through the long period leading to little if any organization of
storms. Toward the very end of the period ridging breaks down more
allowing for more height falls. This will lead to higher chance
pops by Thursday given this looks to be the overall best synoptic
feature we have seen. Given the ridging a more summer time feel
will remain in place through the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

While a few lingering showers are ongoing across eastern KY a
the time of TAF issuance, attention turns to a strong line of
showers and thunderstorms currently moving across western and
central KY. Convection is now also occurring ahead of the main
line. Timing this out, expect the western most TAF sites
(KSME/KLOZ) to be affected first, likely between 22 and 23z. The
line is then expected to lose overall intensity as it continues
eastward toward the other TAF sites through around 3z. At present
time, it is hard to know exact impacts on each TAF site, so will
likely need to update TAFs as we see storms are nearing the
airports. Ongoing threats to our west include hail, torrential
rains, frequent lightning, and gusts between 30 and 40kts. After
the line moves through later tonight, high pressure and some
possible clearing will take hold. This may lead to some fog
development at the TAF sites, though confidence on exact VIS
restrictions is lows, especially considering it will be very much
correlated with when and how much rain occurs this evening. Any
fog should clear out by morning, with (VFR) diurnal CU developing
as we head into the early afternoon.

&&

.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...JMW





000
FXUS63 KJKL 260000
AFDJKL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson KY
800 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 800 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

Current conditions across the area feature scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms tracking through eastern Kentucky. Most of
this activity is on the wane as surface high pressure still just
to the west is enough to break down this activity as it moves into
the area. Have increased pops to the southwest as the incoming
area should make it into the southwest counties before
dissipating. With this...there should be a period later tonight
with no activity before another wave moves into the area just
before dawn. Updated the forecast and sent out a new zfp.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 329 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

A cluster of showers, originating off the Cumberland Plateau and
currently approaching the I-75 corridor, will continue to track
northeast this afternoon. Surface-based CAPE of 500-1000 J/KG has
developed and led to an afternoon cumulus field amid a steady stream
of increasing mid to high clouds moving in from the west ahead of a
disturbance stretching from southeast Saskatchewan through the
Mississippi Valley. May see an increase in shower and thunderstorm
activity, mainly across the Bluegrass region, as this energy
propagates toward eastern Kentucky. Further development will be
possible across the higher terrain as additional low level
forcing for ascent will be nonexistent. Will see this pulse-type
activity quickly dissipate as poor deep layer shear will lead to
cold pools quickly overwhelming updrafts.

Lingering shower activity will be possible through the night as
southwest flow aloft will be characterized by microscale shortwave
impulses. Instability looks to be low enough to negate thunder
mention with a diurnally cooling boundary layer. Dewpoints in the
upper 50s to lower 60s will only allow overnight lows to fall into a
similar range as moisture from the Gulf of Mexico remains in place.
Despite mid to high cloud cover persisting, patchy valley fog will
be possible given near-surface saturation.

A similar story continues for Thursday with isolated showers and
thunderstorms developing in a weakly forced environment. Highs
rising into the mid 80s will again provide ample enough instability
for pulse storms in a weakly-sheared environment. Following any
lingering showers Thursday evening, lows in the low to mid 60s along
with patchy valley fog will once again be in the offing overnight in
a moist environment.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 332 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

More summer like weather will remain the story for a good portion
of the long term period. This is brought to us by a upper level
ridge that will reside along the east coast, meanwhile a upper
level closed low will be in place near the front range. This upper
level ridge will keep the trough well west of the region. The
issue here is we will reside on the periphery of this upper level
ridge. This will result in the potential for a few weak waves, but
right now models are remaining in little agreement overall. Given
no definitive lifting features will stick with isolated showers
and storms for now through much of the long term.

There is another caveat as we move into early next week focus
shifts to the tropics. There is a surface low that develops off
the Carolina Coast this weekend and then remains quasi stationary
with little if any steering flow. The NHC does paint the region in
a 50% chance for tropical development in latest outlook. The GFS
continues to and now the latest ECMWF bring a bit more moisture
into the region, as a result of the tropical system by Wednesday.
Therefore opt to introduce high chance pops along the VA border.

Also given increased moisture and summer like pattern will see the
potential for patchy valley fog in the mornings. Also areas that
see any storms would expect a better chances of fog formation
given increased moisture. Overall temps through the period will
remain above normal, with highs topping out in the lower 80s and
lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 800 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

Showers and thunderstorms will be across the area through this
evening before dissipating after midnight. Some showers moving into
the area early this evening will impact a few TAF sites before
finally dissipating. Locations that received rainfall this
evening may see a bit of fog develop tonight but nothing that will
sock in areas besides the normal river valleys. Another chance of
showers will move into the area towards dawn. The chance is
limited so at least put some vicinity showers in the TAFs. Winds
are expected to be light through the period.

&&

.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER





000
FXUS63 KJKL 251112
AFDJKL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson KY
712 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 304 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

More of the same to report in the short term portion of the
forecast. The model data all still suggesting a warm and muggy air
mass will be in place across the region for the next several days.
Temperatures are expected to run well above normal for the rest of
the week, with day time highs routinely topping out in the 80s
each day. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will also be
possible today through tomorrow as a weak wave of low pressure
moves from west to east across the Ohio and Tennessee valley
regions. The best time for thunderstorm activity will likely be
from the late morning through early evening hours today and
tomorrow. Winds will generally be from the south at 5 to 10kts
during the day time periods and light and variable tonight. Some
patchy valley fog will be possible early this morning and again
late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 426 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

Ridging over the southeast conus will be the most influential
feature for our area during the early part of the period.
However, we will be along its periphery, and perturbations in the
westerlies to our north and west may be enough to bring a few
showers and thunder storms at times. The greatest pop will remain
further north and west.

during the weekend, what would appear to be a subtropical low will
move northwest toward the south carolina coast and then slow down.
the gfs and ecmwf still disagree on what happens next. the gfs
inches the low very slowly to the west or northwest, and allows
deep moisture off the atlantic to spiral/pivot well inland over
ky. meanwhile, the ecmwf turns the low very slowly to the
northeast, and keeps the deep moisture to our east. Being that
the system is separated from the westerlies, is handled in
different fashions by the models, and is still at a long time
range, confidence in the actual outcome is low. with the
persistence of the gfs, have allowed for some slightly elevated
pops early next week, but only around 30%, as opposed to the 20%
pops leading up to that time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 712 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

VFR conditions to prevail through the end of the taf period.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will move into
eastern Kentucky between 12 and 15z this morning, and will
continue to move across the area through around 4z tonight. The
showers and storms should stay scattered enough to not warrant
mentioning in the tafs. Winds will be generally out of the south
at 5 to 10kts. Cloud cover will lower to between 5 and 6k by 17 or
18z this afternoon and will be bkn in general.

&&

.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...AR





000
FXUS63 KJKL 250704
AFDJKL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson KY
304 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 304 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

More of the same to report in the short term portion of the
forecast. The model data all still suggesting a warm and muggy air
mass will be in place across the region for the next several days.
Temperatures are expected to run well above normal for the rest of
the week, with day time highs routinely topping out in the 80s
each day. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will also be
possible today through tomorrow as a weak wave of low pressure
moves from west to east across the Ohio and Tennessee valley
regions. The best time for thunderstorm activity will likely be
from the late morning through early evening hours today and
tomorrow. Winds will generally be from the south at 5 to 10kts
during the day time periods and light and variable tonight. Some
patchy valley fog will be possible early this morning and again
late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

Models continue to be in good agreement with the overall pattern
heading into the weekend. A summer like pattern will be setting up
across the area with mid and upper level ridging over the southeast
United States, and the jet stream lifting northward. We will remain
on the periphery of the upper level ridging, which means occasional
isolated to scattered convection can be expected for late in the
week and into the early part of the weekend.

By late in the weekend, models continue to indicate a tropical or
subtropical wave moving onshore somewhere in the southeast United
States. Exactly if and where this occurs is still in question, with
the 12z GFS suggesting the system would move northwest from South
Carolina bringing deep moisture along with increasing rain chances
to eastern KY early next week. However, the 12Z ECMWF indicates
impacts with this system will remain east of the Appalachians. Both
the  GFS and ECMWF are continuing trends they`ve shown in recent
runs. So while they are not in agreement with each other they are
consistent. Confidence in any specific model solutions for Sunday
onward is lower than normal, but based on latest guidance and the
standard model blend will end up with a forecast with daily rain
chances increasing each day from Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. Mid level
deck will overspread the area overnight. Could see some patchy fog
in the most sheltered valley locations but not expecting any
influence at area terminals at this time. Winds will be light
until tomorrow when they increase from the southwest at 5-10 kts.
Mostly isolated showers and thunderstorms will move across eastern
Kentucky beginning early this morning and lasting through early
Wednesday evening. These showers and storms should remain
scattered enough to not warrant mentioning in the tafs at this
time.

&&

.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...AR





    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities