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000
FXUS63 KJKL 260529
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1229 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1136 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

DID AN UPDATED MAINLY TO FRESHEN UP THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST
OBS AND TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED THE SKY COVER SLIGHTLY IN THE FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA...BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE RETURNS.
CONTINUE TO AGREE WITH PREVIOUS UPDATE AS FAR AS SNOWFALL TOTALS. THE
LATEST NAM12 SEEMS TO HAVE COME IN WITH SLIGHTLY LESS PRECIP THAN
THAT OF THE 18Z RUN...WHICH SEEMS TO ACTUALLY MAKE MORE SENSE GIVEN
THE STRONG UPTICK IN MOISTURE AT 18Z /SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN A LITTLE
ERRONEOUS/. EVEN MORE CONFUSING IS THE LATEST HRRR RUN WHICH IS STILL ONLY
BRINGING PRECIP INTO PIKE AND LETCHER COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA REMAINS DRY. THIS SEEMS A BIT EXTREME AS WELL IN
COMPARISON TO THE 6 HOURS MODELS. GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY...ENDED
UP JUST KEEPING SNOW TOTALS THE SAME. ONCE PRECIP MOVES INTO THE
REGION...THIS WILL BE THE TIME TO ASSESS THE CURRENT CONDITIONS
COMPARED TO THAT OF THE MODEL RUNS...AND ADJUST AMOUNTS /QFP AND
SNOW/ UP OR DOWN AS NEEDED. FORECASTED TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY
FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE FREEZING LINE. ANY SHIFT A COUPLE DIRECTIONS ONE
WAY OR ANOTHER COULD MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MORE OR LESS SNOW IN
A PARTICULAR LOCATION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

DID AN UPDATED MAINLY TO FRESHEN UP THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST
OBS AND TRENDS. ALSO BUMPED UP THE SKY COVER QUICKER THROUGH THE
EVENING AS HIGH CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD IN QUICKLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE
18Z RUNS HAVE COME IN WITH BEEFIER THOUGHTS ON SNOW AS BOTH THE GFS
AND NAM12 TAKE THE PCPN FURTHER WEST. THE GFS SEEMS TOO WARM AT THE
SFC FOR MUCH SNOW OR ACCUMULATION FOR LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF OUR
CURRENT ADVISORY WITH ITS LATEST RUN. THE NAM12...ON THE OTHER
HAND...APPEARS TO GO OVERBOARD ON THE QPF AND THEREFORE SNOW OVER OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES. THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF FACTORS THAT WOULD HAMPER
THIS OCCURRENCE WITH CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH CUTTING OFF SOME OF THE
BEST MOISTURE FROM BEING TRANSPORTED INTO KENTUCKY AS CLEANLY AS
ENVISIONED BY THE OFF SYNOPTIC TIME RUN. NEVERTHELESS WILL BE
MONITORING THE RADAR TRENDS AND NEAR TERM MODELS FOR SIGNS THAT THE
CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. TO THAT THOUGHT...THE LATEST HRRR
RUNS HAVE TRENDED ITS PCPN SHIELD FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST BUT STILL
A FAR CRY FROM THE 6 HOURLY MODELS. THE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT
TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

...ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED OVER FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STILL INFLUENCING THE WEATHER OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS HAS PROVIDED PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND GENERALLY
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 KTS. THESE
CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH GOOD DRYING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON HAS SENT
TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE AREA...THOUGH
LOCATIONS NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 64 ARE LAGGING IN THE UPPER 40S. OF
NOTE ON THE SFC CHART IS AN AREA OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CROSSING
NORTHERN FLORIDA ON ITS WAY TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SEABOARD.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. THEY ALL TAKE A STRONG SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY BOTTOMING OUT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST NORTHEAST INTO
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...A
COMPACT WAVE WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE CLOSE ON THE TIMING OF
THIS BUT THE CORE OF THE ENERGY IS FURTHER SOUTH IN THE NAM...
ECMWF...AND GEM WHEN COMPARED TO THE GFS. WILL FAVOR THIS MORE
SOUTHERN TRACK AS SEEN IN THE CONSENSUS. IN GENERAL HAVE LEANED MOST
CLOSELY TO THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS OF THE NAM12 AND HRRR...
THOUGH THE HRRR PCPN FIELDS SEEM TOO FAR SOUTHEAST AND SLOW LATER
TONIGHT.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUICK INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM
THE SOUTHEAST AS THE COASTAL LOW STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE LATER THIS
EVENING. LOWER CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL START TO SPILL OVER THE SPINE OF
THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE INTO OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AROUND
MIDNIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WET BULB DOWN WHEN THE PCPN MOVES IN
AND TRANSITION THE RAIN TO SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FIRST BUT
EVENTUALLY DOWN IN THE VALLEYS...AS WELL. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER WHERE AS MUCH AS A
QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH OF LIQUID WILL LIKELY OCCUR. THIS WILL
PROBABLY AMOUNT TO BETWEEN TWO AND THREE INCHES OF WET SNOW IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...ABOVE 2000 FEET AND AROUND AN INCH OR LESS
ELSEWHERE. HIGHER RIDGES BELOW 2000 FEET CAN EXPECT TO PICK UP
BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. HAVE SET UP THIS AREA
WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH NOON WEDNESDAY
FOR THIS PASSING EVENT. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
IN THE COUNTIES IMMEDIATELY WEST OF THE ADVISORY WILL ALSO ISSUE AN
SPS ADDRESSING THIS MARGINAL CONCERN. OTHERWISE...THE COASTAL PULLS
OUT LATER WEDNESDAY WITH A BRIEF VISIT BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR EAST
KENTUCKY IN ITS WAKE. HOWEVER...THE NEXT DEVELOPING LOW WORKS IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATER THAT NIGHT CARVING ITS WAY THROUGH OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES INTO DAWN THURSDAY. THIS TOO WILL BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW
TO PARTS OF THE AREA WITH SOME SLUSHY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE MAINLY ON RIDGES AND GRASSY/ELEVATED SURFACES.

AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR T/TD/WINDS THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME
MORE SIGNIFICANT TERRAIN BASED ADJUSTMENTS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN
THE EXPECTED SNOW AREAS OF THE FAR EAST. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP
CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET NUMBERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE REGION WITH BEST POP CHANCES
ACROSS THE SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH QPF THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY
AT THIS POINT. THIS SYSTEM SLIDES EAST ALLOWING FOR NW/W FLOW TO
SETUP ACROSS THE REGION AND THEREFORE HELD SLIGHT CHANCE IN FAR SE
INTO THE AFTERNOON.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT
THURSDAY AND GENERALLY CRESTING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST BRINGING RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO EASTERN
KY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOWER 50S SATURDAY. SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WE DO PRESENT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY GENERALLY STALLS ACROSS THE NORTH.
THIS QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE QUESTION REALLY BECOMES HOW QUICKLY DOES THIS
BOUNDARY MOVE SOUTH...THAT SAID THE 12Z ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
MOVING THIS FRONT SOUTH THAN THE 12Z GFS. RIGHT NOW WITH MODEL
DISCREPANCIES WILL KEEP BLEND POPS FOR THE MOST PART BUT WOULD THINK
THESE POPS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND UP ONCE MODELS COME INTO BETTER
ALIGNMENT. SATURDAY HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID
50S WITH TEMPERATURES MODIFYING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND 7Z.
AFTER THAT THE AIRPORTS WILL BEGIN TO EXPERIENCES MVFR CIGS AS LOW
LEVEL CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION BEGIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA. RAIN AND
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE INITIALLY...BEFORE COLDER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT
AND CHANGES ALL PRECIPITATION OVER TO SNOW. THE SNOW SHOULD BE FAIRLY
LIGHT AT JKL AND SJS. ONCE THE SNOW BEGINS...SOME FOG MAY ALSO FORM
AT JKL AND SJS. THE COMBINATION OF BOTH PHENOMENA COULD LEAD TO
BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR OR EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH AIRPORTS. LOZ
WILL BE ON THE FURTHERS WESTERN EXTEND OF ANY PRECIPITATION...AND
SHOULD SEE MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS AT WORST IN WHATEVER PRECIPITATION
IS ABLE TO AFFECT THAT AIRPORT. AT THIS TIME...SME LOOKS TO BE IN THE
CLEAR AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION IS CONCERNED...BUT COULD EXPERIENCE
SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR FOG...ALSO THIS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ENDING AT THE AFFECTED AIRPORTS BETWEEN
11 AND 13Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
CLOUD COVER WILL BE PERSISTENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY...WITH BROKEN
TO OVERCAST COVERAGE EXPECTED EVEN AFTER THE PRECIPITATION ENDS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR KYZ087-088-110-
113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...AR







000
FXUS63 KJKL 260529
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1229 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1136 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

DID AN UPDATED MAINLY TO FRESHEN UP THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST
OBS AND TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED THE SKY COVER SLIGHTLY IN THE FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA...BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE RETURNS.
CONTINUE TO AGREE WITH PREVIOUS UPDATE AS FAR AS SNOWFALL TOTALS. THE
LATEST NAM12 SEEMS TO HAVE COME IN WITH SLIGHTLY LESS PRECIP THAN
THAT OF THE 18Z RUN...WHICH SEEMS TO ACTUALLY MAKE MORE SENSE GIVEN
THE STRONG UPTICK IN MOISTURE AT 18Z /SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN A LITTLE
ERRONEOUS/. EVEN MORE CONFUSING IS THE LATEST HRRR RUN WHICH IS STILL ONLY
BRINGING PRECIP INTO PIKE AND LETCHER COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA REMAINS DRY. THIS SEEMS A BIT EXTREME AS WELL IN
COMPARISON TO THE 6 HOURS MODELS. GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY...ENDED
UP JUST KEEPING SNOW TOTALS THE SAME. ONCE PRECIP MOVES INTO THE
REGION...THIS WILL BE THE TIME TO ASSESS THE CURRENT CONDITIONS
COMPARED TO THAT OF THE MODEL RUNS...AND ADJUST AMOUNTS /QFP AND
SNOW/ UP OR DOWN AS NEEDED. FORECASTED TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY
FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE FREEZING LINE. ANY SHIFT A COUPLE DIRECTIONS ONE
WAY OR ANOTHER COULD MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MORE OR LESS SNOW IN
A PARTICULAR LOCATION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

DID AN UPDATED MAINLY TO FRESHEN UP THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST
OBS AND TRENDS. ALSO BUMPED UP THE SKY COVER QUICKER THROUGH THE
EVENING AS HIGH CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD IN QUICKLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE
18Z RUNS HAVE COME IN WITH BEEFIER THOUGHTS ON SNOW AS BOTH THE GFS
AND NAM12 TAKE THE PCPN FURTHER WEST. THE GFS SEEMS TOO WARM AT THE
SFC FOR MUCH SNOW OR ACCUMULATION FOR LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF OUR
CURRENT ADVISORY WITH ITS LATEST RUN. THE NAM12...ON THE OTHER
HAND...APPEARS TO GO OVERBOARD ON THE QPF AND THEREFORE SNOW OVER OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES. THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF FACTORS THAT WOULD HAMPER
THIS OCCURRENCE WITH CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH CUTTING OFF SOME OF THE
BEST MOISTURE FROM BEING TRANSPORTED INTO KENTUCKY AS CLEANLY AS
ENVISIONED BY THE OFF SYNOPTIC TIME RUN. NEVERTHELESS WILL BE
MONITORING THE RADAR TRENDS AND NEAR TERM MODELS FOR SIGNS THAT THE
CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. TO THAT THOUGHT...THE LATEST HRRR
RUNS HAVE TRENDED ITS PCPN SHIELD FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST BUT STILL
A FAR CRY FROM THE 6 HOURLY MODELS. THE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT
TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

...ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED OVER FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STILL INFLUENCING THE WEATHER OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS HAS PROVIDED PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND GENERALLY
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 KTS. THESE
CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH GOOD DRYING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON HAS SENT
TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE AREA...THOUGH
LOCATIONS NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 64 ARE LAGGING IN THE UPPER 40S. OF
NOTE ON THE SFC CHART IS AN AREA OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CROSSING
NORTHERN FLORIDA ON ITS WAY TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SEABOARD.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. THEY ALL TAKE A STRONG SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY BOTTOMING OUT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST NORTHEAST INTO
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...A
COMPACT WAVE WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE CLOSE ON THE TIMING OF
THIS BUT THE CORE OF THE ENERGY IS FURTHER SOUTH IN THE NAM...
ECMWF...AND GEM WHEN COMPARED TO THE GFS. WILL FAVOR THIS MORE
SOUTHERN TRACK AS SEEN IN THE CONSENSUS. IN GENERAL HAVE LEANED MOST
CLOSELY TO THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS OF THE NAM12 AND HRRR...
THOUGH THE HRRR PCPN FIELDS SEEM TOO FAR SOUTHEAST AND SLOW LATER
TONIGHT.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUICK INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM
THE SOUTHEAST AS THE COASTAL LOW STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE LATER THIS
EVENING. LOWER CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL START TO SPILL OVER THE SPINE OF
THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE INTO OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AROUND
MIDNIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WET BULB DOWN WHEN THE PCPN MOVES IN
AND TRANSITION THE RAIN TO SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FIRST BUT
EVENTUALLY DOWN IN THE VALLEYS...AS WELL. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER WHERE AS MUCH AS A
QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH OF LIQUID WILL LIKELY OCCUR. THIS WILL
PROBABLY AMOUNT TO BETWEEN TWO AND THREE INCHES OF WET SNOW IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...ABOVE 2000 FEET AND AROUND AN INCH OR LESS
ELSEWHERE. HIGHER RIDGES BELOW 2000 FEET CAN EXPECT TO PICK UP
BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. HAVE SET UP THIS AREA
WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH NOON WEDNESDAY
FOR THIS PASSING EVENT. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
IN THE COUNTIES IMMEDIATELY WEST OF THE ADVISORY WILL ALSO ISSUE AN
SPS ADDRESSING THIS MARGINAL CONCERN. OTHERWISE...THE COASTAL PULLS
OUT LATER WEDNESDAY WITH A BRIEF VISIT BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR EAST
KENTUCKY IN ITS WAKE. HOWEVER...THE NEXT DEVELOPING LOW WORKS IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATER THAT NIGHT CARVING ITS WAY THROUGH OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES INTO DAWN THURSDAY. THIS TOO WILL BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW
TO PARTS OF THE AREA WITH SOME SLUSHY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE MAINLY ON RIDGES AND GRASSY/ELEVATED SURFACES.

AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR T/TD/WINDS THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME
MORE SIGNIFICANT TERRAIN BASED ADJUSTMENTS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN
THE EXPECTED SNOW AREAS OF THE FAR EAST. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP
CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET NUMBERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE REGION WITH BEST POP CHANCES
ACROSS THE SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH QPF THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY
AT THIS POINT. THIS SYSTEM SLIDES EAST ALLOWING FOR NW/W FLOW TO
SETUP ACROSS THE REGION AND THEREFORE HELD SLIGHT CHANCE IN FAR SE
INTO THE AFTERNOON.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT
THURSDAY AND GENERALLY CRESTING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST BRINGING RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO EASTERN
KY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOWER 50S SATURDAY. SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WE DO PRESENT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY GENERALLY STALLS ACROSS THE NORTH.
THIS QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE QUESTION REALLY BECOMES HOW QUICKLY DOES THIS
BOUNDARY MOVE SOUTH...THAT SAID THE 12Z ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
MOVING THIS FRONT SOUTH THAN THE 12Z GFS. RIGHT NOW WITH MODEL
DISCREPANCIES WILL KEEP BLEND POPS FOR THE MOST PART BUT WOULD THINK
THESE POPS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND UP ONCE MODELS COME INTO BETTER
ALIGNMENT. SATURDAY HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID
50S WITH TEMPERATURES MODIFYING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND 7Z.
AFTER THAT THE AIRPORTS WILL BEGIN TO EXPERIENCES MVFR CIGS AS LOW
LEVEL CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION BEGIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA. RAIN AND
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE INITIALLY...BEFORE COLDER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT
AND CHANGES ALL PRECIPITATION OVER TO SNOW. THE SNOW SHOULD BE FAIRLY
LIGHT AT JKL AND SJS. ONCE THE SNOW BEGINS...SOME FOG MAY ALSO FORM
AT JKL AND SJS. THE COMBINATION OF BOTH PHENOMENA COULD LEAD TO
BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR OR EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH AIRPORTS. LOZ
WILL BE ON THE FURTHERS WESTERN EXTEND OF ANY PRECIPITATION...AND
SHOULD SEE MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS AT WORST IN WHATEVER PRECIPITATION
IS ABLE TO AFFECT THAT AIRPORT. AT THIS TIME...SME LOOKS TO BE IN THE
CLEAR AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION IS CONCERNED...BUT COULD EXPERIENCE
SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR FOG...ALSO THIS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ENDING AT THE AFFECTED AIRPORTS BETWEEN
11 AND 13Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
CLOUD COVER WILL BE PERSISTENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY...WITH BROKEN
TO OVERCAST COVERAGE EXPECTED EVEN AFTER THE PRECIPITATION ENDS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR KYZ087-088-110-
113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...AR








000
FXUS63 KJKL 260437
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1137 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1136 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

DID AN UPDATED MAINLY TO FRESHEN UP THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST
OBS AND TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED THE SKY COVER SLIGHTLY IN THE FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA...BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE RETURNS.
CONTINUE TO AGREE WITH PREVIOUS UPDATE AS FAR AS SNOWFALL TOTALS. THE
LATEST NAM12 SEEMS TO HAVE COME IN WITH SLIGHTLY LESS PRECIP THAN
THAT OF THE 18Z RUN...WHICH SEEMS TO ACTUALLY MAKE MORE SENSE GIVEN
THE STRONG UPTICK IN MOISTURE AT 18Z /SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN A LITTLE
ERRONEOUS/. EVEN MORE CONFUSING IS THE LATEST HRRR RUN WHICH IS STILL ONLY
BRINGING PRECIP INTO PIKE AND LETCHER COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA REMAINS DRY. THIS SEEMS A BIT EXTREME AS WELL IN
COMPARISON TO THE 6 HOURS MODELS. GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY...ENDED
UP JUST KEEPING SNOW TOTALS THE SAME. ONCE PRECIP MOVES INTO THE
REGION...THIS WILL BE THE TIME TO ASSESS THE CURRENT CONDITIONS
COMPARED TO THAT OF THE MODEL RUNS...AND ADJUST AMOUNTS /QFP AND
SNOW/ UP OR DOWN AS NEEDED. FORECASTED TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY
FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE FREEZING LINE. ANY SHIFT A COUPLE DIRECTIONS ONE
WAY OR ANOTHER COULD MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MORE OR LESS SNOW IN
A PARTICULAR LOCATION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

DID AN UPDATED MAINLY TO FRESHEN UP THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST
OBS AND TRENDS. ALSO BUMPED UP THE SKY COVER QUICKER THROUGH THE
EVENING AS HIGH CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD IN QUICKLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE
18Z RUNS HAVE COME IN WITH BEEFIER THOUGHTS ON SNOW AS BOTH THE GFS
AND NAM12 TAKE THE PCPN FURTHER WEST. THE GFS SEEMS TOO WARM AT THE
SFC FOR MUCH SNOW OR ACCUMULATION FOR LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF OUR
CURRENT ADVISORY WITH ITS LATEST RUN. THE NAM12...ON THE OTHER
HAND...APPEARS TO GO OVERBOARD ON THE QPF AND THEREFORE SNOW OVER OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES. THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF FACTORS THAT WOULD HAMPER
THIS OCCURRENCE WITH CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH CUTTING OFF SOME OF THE
BEST MOISTURE FROM BEING TRANSPORTED INTO KENTUCKY AS CLEANLY AS
ENVISIONED BY THE OFF SYNOPTIC TIME RUN. NEVERTHELESS WILL BE
MONITORING THE RADAR TRENDS AND NEAR TERM MODELS FOR SIGNS THAT THE
CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. TO THAT THOUGHT...THE LATEST HRRR
RUNS HAVE TRENDED ITS PCPN SHIELD FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST BUT STILL
A FAR CRY FROM THE 6 HOURLY MODELS. THE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT
TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

...ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED OVER FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STILL INFLUENCING THE WEATHER OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS HAS PROVIDED PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND GENERALLY
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 KTS. THESE
CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH GOOD DRYING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON HAS SENT
TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE AREA...THOUGH
LOCATIONS NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 64 ARE LAGGING IN THE UPPER 40S. OF
NOTE ON THE SFC CHART IS AN AREA OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CROSSING
NORTHERN FLORIDA ON ITS WAY TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SEABOARD.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. THEY ALL TAKE A STRONG SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY BOTTOMING OUT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST NORTHEAST INTO
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...A
COMPACT WAVE WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE CLOSE ON THE TIMING OF
THIS BUT THE CORE OF THE ENERGY IS FURTHER SOUTH IN THE NAM...
ECMWF...AND GEM WHEN COMPARED TO THE GFS. WILL FAVOR THIS MORE
SOUTHERN TRACK AS SEEN IN THE CONSENSUS. IN GENERAL HAVE LEANED MOST
CLOSELY TO THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS OF THE NAM12 AND HRRR...
THOUGH THE HRRR PCPN FIELDS SEEM TOO FAR SOUTHEAST AND SLOW LATER
TONIGHT.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUICK INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM
THE SOUTHEAST AS THE COASTAL LOW STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE LATER THIS
EVENING. LOWER CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL START TO SPILL OVER THE SPINE OF
THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE INTO OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AROUND
MIDNIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WET BULB DOWN WHEN THE PCPN MOVES IN
AND TRANSITION THE RAIN TO SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FIRST BUT
EVENTUALLY DOWN IN THE VALLEYS...AS WELL. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER WHERE AS MUCH AS A
QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH OF LIQUID WILL LIKELY OCCUR. THIS WILL
PROBABLY AMOUNT TO BETWEEN TWO AND THREE INCHES OF WET SNOW IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...ABOVE 2000 FEET AND AROUND AN INCH OR LESS
ELSEWHERE. HIGHER RIDGES BELOW 2000 FEET CAN EXPECT TO PICK UP
BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. HAVE SET UP THIS AREA
WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH NOON WEDNESDAY
FOR THIS PASSING EVENT. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
IN THE COUNTIES IMMEDIATELY WEST OF THE ADVISORY WILL ALSO ISSUE AN
SPS ADDRESSING THIS MARGINAL CONCERN. OTHERWISE...THE COASTAL PULLS
OUT LATER WEDNESDAY WITH A BRIEF VISIT BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR EAST
KENTUCKY IN ITS WAKE. HOWEVER...THE NEXT DEVELOPING LOW WORKS IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATER THAT NIGHT CARVING ITS WAY THROUGH OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES INTO DAWN THURSDAY. THIS TOO WILL BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW
TO PARTS OF THE AREA WITH SOME SLUSHY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE MAINLY ON RIDGES AND GRASSY/ELEVATED SURFACES.

AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR T/TD/WINDS THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME
MORE SIGNIFICANT TERRAIN BASED ADJUSTMENTS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN
THE EXPECTED SNOW AREAS OF THE FAR EAST. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP
CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET NUMBERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE REGION WITH BEST POP CHANCES
ACROSS THE SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH QPF THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY
AT THIS POINT. THIS SYSTEM SLIDES EAST ALLOWING FOR NW/W FLOW TO
SETUP ACROSS THE REGION AND THEREFORE HELD SLIGHT CHANCE IN FAR SE
INTO THE AFTERNOON.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT
THURSDAY AND GENERALLY CRESTING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST BRINGING RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO EASTERN
KY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOWER 50S SATURDAY. SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WE DO PRESENT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY GENERALLY STALLS ACROSS THE NORTH.
THIS QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE QUESTION REALLY BECOMES HOW QUICKLY DOES THIS
BOUNDARY MOVE SOUTH...THAT SAID THE 12Z ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
MOVING THIS FRONT SOUTH THAN THE 12Z GFS. RIGHT NOW WITH MODEL
DISCREPANCIES WILL KEEP BLEND POPS FOR THE MOST PART BUT WOULD THINK
THESE POPS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND UP ONCE MODELS COME INTO BETTER
ALIGNMENT. SATURDAY HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID
50S WITH TEMPERATURES MODIFYING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING THOUGH
CIGS WILL TAKE SHAPE AND START TO LOWER DOWN TO 10K FEET BY
MIDNIGHT. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD MOISTURE AND
LOWER CLOUDS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY LATER TONIGHT...WITH CIGS FALLING
INTO THE MVFR RANGE IN THE EAST BY 08Z. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD
SEE A GRADIENT IN THOSE LOWER CIGS WITH THE LOWEST (IFR/MVFR) IN THE
EAST...TRAILING BACK TO VFR IN THE WEST...THROUGH MID MORNING
WEDNESDAY. WE WILL ALSO SEE PRECIPITATION SPREAD INTO THE AREA...
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY...AS A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW...LIKELY BECOMING ALL SNOW IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. THIS SNOW WILL
RESTRICT VISIBILITIES LATER TONIGHT AS WELL...PARTICULARLY AT KSJS
WHERE VIS COULD BE BELOW A MILE AT TIMES IN THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS.
THE SNOW AND ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL END FOR THE TAF SITES FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ087-088-
110-113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GREIF








000
FXUS63 KJKL 260437
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1137 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1136 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

DID AN UPDATED MAINLY TO FRESHEN UP THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST
OBS AND TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED THE SKY COVER SLIGHTLY IN THE FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA...BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE RETURNS.
CONTINUE TO AGREE WITH PREVIOUS UPDATE AS FAR AS SNOWFALL TOTALS. THE
LATEST NAM12 SEEMS TO HAVE COME IN WITH SLIGHTLY LESS PRECIP THAN
THAT OF THE 18Z RUN...WHICH SEEMS TO ACTUALLY MAKE MORE SENSE GIVEN
THE STRONG UPTICK IN MOISTURE AT 18Z /SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN A LITTLE
ERRONEOUS/. EVEN MORE CONFUSING IS THE LATEST HRRR RUN WHICH IS STILL ONLY
BRINGING PRECIP INTO PIKE AND LETCHER COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA REMAINS DRY. THIS SEEMS A BIT EXTREME AS WELL IN
COMPARISON TO THE 6 HOURS MODELS. GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY...ENDED
UP JUST KEEPING SNOW TOTALS THE SAME. ONCE PRECIP MOVES INTO THE
REGION...THIS WILL BE THE TIME TO ASSESS THE CURRENT CONDITIONS
COMPARED TO THAT OF THE MODEL RUNS...AND ADJUST AMOUNTS /QFP AND
SNOW/ UP OR DOWN AS NEEDED. FORECASTED TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY
FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE FREEZING LINE. ANY SHIFT A COUPLE DIRECTIONS ONE
WAY OR ANOTHER COULD MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MORE OR LESS SNOW IN
A PARTICULAR LOCATION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

DID AN UPDATED MAINLY TO FRESHEN UP THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST
OBS AND TRENDS. ALSO BUMPED UP THE SKY COVER QUICKER THROUGH THE
EVENING AS HIGH CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD IN QUICKLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE
18Z RUNS HAVE COME IN WITH BEEFIER THOUGHTS ON SNOW AS BOTH THE GFS
AND NAM12 TAKE THE PCPN FURTHER WEST. THE GFS SEEMS TOO WARM AT THE
SFC FOR MUCH SNOW OR ACCUMULATION FOR LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF OUR
CURRENT ADVISORY WITH ITS LATEST RUN. THE NAM12...ON THE OTHER
HAND...APPEARS TO GO OVERBOARD ON THE QPF AND THEREFORE SNOW OVER OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES. THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF FACTORS THAT WOULD HAMPER
THIS OCCURRENCE WITH CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH CUTTING OFF SOME OF THE
BEST MOISTURE FROM BEING TRANSPORTED INTO KENTUCKY AS CLEANLY AS
ENVISIONED BY THE OFF SYNOPTIC TIME RUN. NEVERTHELESS WILL BE
MONITORING THE RADAR TRENDS AND NEAR TERM MODELS FOR SIGNS THAT THE
CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. TO THAT THOUGHT...THE LATEST HRRR
RUNS HAVE TRENDED ITS PCPN SHIELD FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST BUT STILL
A FAR CRY FROM THE 6 HOURLY MODELS. THE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT
TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

...ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED OVER FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STILL INFLUENCING THE WEATHER OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS HAS PROVIDED PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND GENERALLY
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 KTS. THESE
CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH GOOD DRYING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON HAS SENT
TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE AREA...THOUGH
LOCATIONS NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 64 ARE LAGGING IN THE UPPER 40S. OF
NOTE ON THE SFC CHART IS AN AREA OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CROSSING
NORTHERN FLORIDA ON ITS WAY TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SEABOARD.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. THEY ALL TAKE A STRONG SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY BOTTOMING OUT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST NORTHEAST INTO
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...A
COMPACT WAVE WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE CLOSE ON THE TIMING OF
THIS BUT THE CORE OF THE ENERGY IS FURTHER SOUTH IN THE NAM...
ECMWF...AND GEM WHEN COMPARED TO THE GFS. WILL FAVOR THIS MORE
SOUTHERN TRACK AS SEEN IN THE CONSENSUS. IN GENERAL HAVE LEANED MOST
CLOSELY TO THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS OF THE NAM12 AND HRRR...
THOUGH THE HRRR PCPN FIELDS SEEM TOO FAR SOUTHEAST AND SLOW LATER
TONIGHT.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUICK INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM
THE SOUTHEAST AS THE COASTAL LOW STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE LATER THIS
EVENING. LOWER CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL START TO SPILL OVER THE SPINE OF
THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE INTO OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AROUND
MIDNIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WET BULB DOWN WHEN THE PCPN MOVES IN
AND TRANSITION THE RAIN TO SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FIRST BUT
EVENTUALLY DOWN IN THE VALLEYS...AS WELL. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER WHERE AS MUCH AS A
QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH OF LIQUID WILL LIKELY OCCUR. THIS WILL
PROBABLY AMOUNT TO BETWEEN TWO AND THREE INCHES OF WET SNOW IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...ABOVE 2000 FEET AND AROUND AN INCH OR LESS
ELSEWHERE. HIGHER RIDGES BELOW 2000 FEET CAN EXPECT TO PICK UP
BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. HAVE SET UP THIS AREA
WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH NOON WEDNESDAY
FOR THIS PASSING EVENT. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
IN THE COUNTIES IMMEDIATELY WEST OF THE ADVISORY WILL ALSO ISSUE AN
SPS ADDRESSING THIS MARGINAL CONCERN. OTHERWISE...THE COASTAL PULLS
OUT LATER WEDNESDAY WITH A BRIEF VISIT BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR EAST
KENTUCKY IN ITS WAKE. HOWEVER...THE NEXT DEVELOPING LOW WORKS IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATER THAT NIGHT CARVING ITS WAY THROUGH OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES INTO DAWN THURSDAY. THIS TOO WILL BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW
TO PARTS OF THE AREA WITH SOME SLUSHY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE MAINLY ON RIDGES AND GRASSY/ELEVATED SURFACES.

AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR T/TD/WINDS THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME
MORE SIGNIFICANT TERRAIN BASED ADJUSTMENTS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN
THE EXPECTED SNOW AREAS OF THE FAR EAST. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP
CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET NUMBERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE REGION WITH BEST POP CHANCES
ACROSS THE SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH QPF THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY
AT THIS POINT. THIS SYSTEM SLIDES EAST ALLOWING FOR NW/W FLOW TO
SETUP ACROSS THE REGION AND THEREFORE HELD SLIGHT CHANCE IN FAR SE
INTO THE AFTERNOON.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT
THURSDAY AND GENERALLY CRESTING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST BRINGING RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO EASTERN
KY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOWER 50S SATURDAY. SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WE DO PRESENT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY GENERALLY STALLS ACROSS THE NORTH.
THIS QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE QUESTION REALLY BECOMES HOW QUICKLY DOES THIS
BOUNDARY MOVE SOUTH...THAT SAID THE 12Z ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
MOVING THIS FRONT SOUTH THAN THE 12Z GFS. RIGHT NOW WITH MODEL
DISCREPANCIES WILL KEEP BLEND POPS FOR THE MOST PART BUT WOULD THINK
THESE POPS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND UP ONCE MODELS COME INTO BETTER
ALIGNMENT. SATURDAY HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID
50S WITH TEMPERATURES MODIFYING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING THOUGH
CIGS WILL TAKE SHAPE AND START TO LOWER DOWN TO 10K FEET BY
MIDNIGHT. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD MOISTURE AND
LOWER CLOUDS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY LATER TONIGHT...WITH CIGS FALLING
INTO THE MVFR RANGE IN THE EAST BY 08Z. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD
SEE A GRADIENT IN THOSE LOWER CIGS WITH THE LOWEST (IFR/MVFR) IN THE
EAST...TRAILING BACK TO VFR IN THE WEST...THROUGH MID MORNING
WEDNESDAY. WE WILL ALSO SEE PRECIPITATION SPREAD INTO THE AREA...
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY...AS A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW...LIKELY BECOMING ALL SNOW IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. THIS SNOW WILL
RESTRICT VISIBILITIES LATER TONIGHT AS WELL...PARTICULARLY AT KSJS
WHERE VIS COULD BE BELOW A MILE AT TIMES IN THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS.
THE SNOW AND ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL END FOR THE TAF SITES FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ087-088-
110-113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GREIF







000
FXUS63 KJKL 260025 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
725 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 725 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

DID AN UPDATED MAINLY TO FRESHEN UP THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST
OBS AND TRENDS. ALSO BUMPED UP THE SKY COVER QUICKER THROUGH THE
EVENING AS HIGH CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD IN QUICKLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE
18Z RUNS HAVE COME IN WITH BEEFIER THOUGHTS ON SNOW AS BOTH THE GFS
AND NAM12 TAKE THE PCPN FURTHER WEST. THE GFS SEEMS TOO WARM AT THE
SFC FOR MUCH SNOW OR ACCUMULATION FOR LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF OUR
CURRENT ADVISORY WITH ITS LATEST RUN. THE NAM12...ON THE OTHER
HAND...APPEARS TO GO OVERBOARD ON THE QPF AND THEREFORE SNOW OVER OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES. THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF FACTORS THAT WOULD HAMPER
THIS OCCURRENCE WITH CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH CUTTING OFF SOME OF THE
BEST MOISTURE FROM BEING TRANSPORTED INTO KENTUCKY AS CLEANLY AS
ENVISIONED BY THE OFF SYNOPTIC TIME RUN. NEVERTHELESS WILL BE
MONITORING THE RADAR TRENDS AND NEAR TERM MODELS FOR SIGNS THAT THE
CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. TO THAT THOUGHT...THE LATEST HRRR
RUNS HAVE TRENDED ITS PCPN SHIELD FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST BUT STILL
A FAR CRY FROM THE 6 HOURLY MODELS. THE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT
TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

...ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED OVER FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STILL INFLUENCING THE WEATHER OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS HAS PROVIDED PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND GENERALLY
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 KTS. THESE
CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH GOOD DRYING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON HAS SENT
TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE AREA...THOUGH
LOCATIONS NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 64 ARE LAGGING IN THE UPPER 40S. OF
NOTE ON THE SFC CHART IS AN AREA OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CROSSING
NORTHERN FLORIDA ON ITS WAY TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SEABOARD.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. THEY ALL TAKE A STRONG SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY BOTTOMING OUT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST NORTHEAST INTO
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...A
COMPACT WAVE WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE CLOSE ON THE TIMING OF
THIS BUT THE CORE OF THE ENERGY IS FURTHER SOUTH IN THE NAM...
ECMWF...AND GEM WHEN COMPARED TO THE GFS. WILL FAVOR THIS MORE
SOUTHERN TRACK AS SEEN IN THE CONSENSUS. IN GENERAL HAVE LEANED MOST
CLOSELY TO THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS OF THE NAM12 AND HRRR...
THOUGH THE HRRR PCPN FIELDS SEEM TOO FAR SOUTHEAST AND SLOW LATER
TONIGHT.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUICK INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM
THE SOUTHEAST AS THE COASTAL LOW STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE LATER THIS
EVENING. LOWER CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL START TO SPILL OVER THE SPINE OF
THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE INTO OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AROUND
MIDNIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WET BULB DOWN WHEN THE PCPN MOVES IN
AND TRANSITION THE RAIN TO SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FIRST BUT
EVENTUALLY DOWN IN THE VALLEYS...AS WELL. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER WHERE AS MUCH AS A
QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH OF LIQUID WILL LIKELY OCCUR. THIS WILL
PROBABLY AMOUNT TO BETWEEN TWO AND THREE INCHES OF WET SNOW IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...ABOVE 2000 FEET AND AROUND AN INCH OR LESS
ELSEWHERE. HIGHER RIDGES BELOW 2000 FEET CAN EXPECT TO PICK UP
BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. HAVE SET UP THIS AREA
WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH NOON WEDNESDAY
FOR THIS PASSING EVENT. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
IN THE COUNTIES IMMEDIATELY WEST OF THE ADVISORY WILL ALSO ISSUE AN
SPS ADDRESSING THIS MARGINAL CONCERN. OTHERWISE...THE COASTAL PULLS
OUT LATER WEDNESDAY WITH A BRIEF VISIT BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR EAST
KENTUCKY IN ITS WAKE. HOWEVER...THE NEXT DEVELOPING LOW WORKS IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATER THAT NIGHT CARVING ITS WAY THROUGH OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES INTO DAWN THURSDAY. THIS TOO WILL BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW
TO PARTS OF THE AREA WITH SOME SLUSHY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE MAINLY ON RIDGES AND GRASSY/ELEVATED SURFACES.

AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR T/TD/WINDS THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME
MORE SIGNIFICANT TERRAIN BASED ADJUSTMENTS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN
THE EXPECTED SNOW AREAS OF THE FAR EAST. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP
CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET NUMBERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE REGION WITH BEST POP CHANCES
ACROSS THE SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH QPF THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY
AT THIS POINT. THIS SYSTEM SLIDES EAST ALLOWING FOR NW/W FLOW TO
SETUP ACROSS THE REGION AND THEREFORE HELD SLIGHT CHANCE IN FAR SE
INTO THE AFTERNOON.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT
THURSDAY AND GENERALLY CRESTING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST BRINGING RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO EASTERN
KY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOWER 50S SATURDAY. SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WE DO PRESENT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY GENERALLY STALLS ACROSS THE NORTH.
THIS QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE QUESTION REALLY BECOMES HOW QUICKLY DOES THIS
BOUNDARY MOVE SOUTH...THAT SAID THE 12Z ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
MOVING THIS FRONT SOUTH THAN THE 12Z GFS. RIGHT NOW WITH MODEL
DISCREPANCIES WILL KEEP BLEND POPS FOR THE MOST PART BUT WOULD THINK
THESE POPS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND UP ONCE MODELS COME INTO BETTER
ALIGNMENT. SATURDAY HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID
50S WITH TEMPERATURES MODIFYING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING THOUGH
CIGS WILL TAKE SHAPE AND START TO LOWER DOWN TO 10K FEET BY
MIDNIGHT. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD MOISTURE AND
LOWER CLOUDS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY LATER TONIGHT...WITH CIGS FALLING
INTO THE MVFR RANGE IN THE EAST BY 08Z. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD
SEE A GRADIENT IN THOSE LOWER CIGS WITH THE LOWEST (IFR/MVFR) IN THE
EAST...TRAILING BACK TO VFR IN THE WEST...THROUGH MID MORNING
WEDNESDAY. WE WILL ALSO SEE PRECIPITATION SPREAD INTO THE AREA...
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY...AS A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW...LIKELY BECOMING ALL SNOW IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. THIS SNOW WILL
RESTRICT VISIBILITIES LATER TONIGHT AS WELL...PARTICULARLY AT KSJS
WHERE VIS COULD BE BELOW A MILE AT TIMES IN THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS.
THE SNOW AND ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL END FOR THE TAF SITES FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ087-088-110-113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GREIF






000
FXUS63 KJKL 260025 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
725 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 725 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

DID AN UPDATED MAINLY TO FRESHEN UP THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST
OBS AND TRENDS. ALSO BUMPED UP THE SKY COVER QUICKER THROUGH THE
EVENING AS HIGH CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD IN QUICKLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE
18Z RUNS HAVE COME IN WITH BEEFIER THOUGHTS ON SNOW AS BOTH THE GFS
AND NAM12 TAKE THE PCPN FURTHER WEST. THE GFS SEEMS TOO WARM AT THE
SFC FOR MUCH SNOW OR ACCUMULATION FOR LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF OUR
CURRENT ADVISORY WITH ITS LATEST RUN. THE NAM12...ON THE OTHER
HAND...APPEARS TO GO OVERBOARD ON THE QPF AND THEREFORE SNOW OVER OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES. THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF FACTORS THAT WOULD HAMPER
THIS OCCURRENCE WITH CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH CUTTING OFF SOME OF THE
BEST MOISTURE FROM BEING TRANSPORTED INTO KENTUCKY AS CLEANLY AS
ENVISIONED BY THE OFF SYNOPTIC TIME RUN. NEVERTHELESS WILL BE
MONITORING THE RADAR TRENDS AND NEAR TERM MODELS FOR SIGNS THAT THE
CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. TO THAT THOUGHT...THE LATEST HRRR
RUNS HAVE TRENDED ITS PCPN SHIELD FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST BUT STILL
A FAR CRY FROM THE 6 HOURLY MODELS. THE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT
TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

...ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED OVER FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STILL INFLUENCING THE WEATHER OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS HAS PROVIDED PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND GENERALLY
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 KTS. THESE
CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH GOOD DRYING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON HAS SENT
TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE AREA...THOUGH
LOCATIONS NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 64 ARE LAGGING IN THE UPPER 40S. OF
NOTE ON THE SFC CHART IS AN AREA OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CROSSING
NORTHERN FLORIDA ON ITS WAY TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SEABOARD.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. THEY ALL TAKE A STRONG SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY BOTTOMING OUT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST NORTHEAST INTO
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...A
COMPACT WAVE WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE CLOSE ON THE TIMING OF
THIS BUT THE CORE OF THE ENERGY IS FURTHER SOUTH IN THE NAM...
ECMWF...AND GEM WHEN COMPARED TO THE GFS. WILL FAVOR THIS MORE
SOUTHERN TRACK AS SEEN IN THE CONSENSUS. IN GENERAL HAVE LEANED MOST
CLOSELY TO THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS OF THE NAM12 AND HRRR...
THOUGH THE HRRR PCPN FIELDS SEEM TOO FAR SOUTHEAST AND SLOW LATER
TONIGHT.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUICK INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM
THE SOUTHEAST AS THE COASTAL LOW STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE LATER THIS
EVENING. LOWER CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL START TO SPILL OVER THE SPINE OF
THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE INTO OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AROUND
MIDNIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WET BULB DOWN WHEN THE PCPN MOVES IN
AND TRANSITION THE RAIN TO SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FIRST BUT
EVENTUALLY DOWN IN THE VALLEYS...AS WELL. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER WHERE AS MUCH AS A
QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH OF LIQUID WILL LIKELY OCCUR. THIS WILL
PROBABLY AMOUNT TO BETWEEN TWO AND THREE INCHES OF WET SNOW IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...ABOVE 2000 FEET AND AROUND AN INCH OR LESS
ELSEWHERE. HIGHER RIDGES BELOW 2000 FEET CAN EXPECT TO PICK UP
BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. HAVE SET UP THIS AREA
WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH NOON WEDNESDAY
FOR THIS PASSING EVENT. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
IN THE COUNTIES IMMEDIATELY WEST OF THE ADVISORY WILL ALSO ISSUE AN
SPS ADDRESSING THIS MARGINAL CONCERN. OTHERWISE...THE COASTAL PULLS
OUT LATER WEDNESDAY WITH A BRIEF VISIT BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR EAST
KENTUCKY IN ITS WAKE. HOWEVER...THE NEXT DEVELOPING LOW WORKS IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATER THAT NIGHT CARVING ITS WAY THROUGH OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES INTO DAWN THURSDAY. THIS TOO WILL BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW
TO PARTS OF THE AREA WITH SOME SLUSHY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE MAINLY ON RIDGES AND GRASSY/ELEVATED SURFACES.

AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR T/TD/WINDS THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME
MORE SIGNIFICANT TERRAIN BASED ADJUSTMENTS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN
THE EXPECTED SNOW AREAS OF THE FAR EAST. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP
CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET NUMBERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE REGION WITH BEST POP CHANCES
ACROSS THE SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH QPF THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY
AT THIS POINT. THIS SYSTEM SLIDES EAST ALLOWING FOR NW/W FLOW TO
SETUP ACROSS THE REGION AND THEREFORE HELD SLIGHT CHANCE IN FAR SE
INTO THE AFTERNOON.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT
THURSDAY AND GENERALLY CRESTING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST BRINGING RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO EASTERN
KY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOWER 50S SATURDAY. SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WE DO PRESENT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY GENERALLY STALLS ACROSS THE NORTH.
THIS QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE QUESTION REALLY BECOMES HOW QUICKLY DOES THIS
BOUNDARY MOVE SOUTH...THAT SAID THE 12Z ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
MOVING THIS FRONT SOUTH THAN THE 12Z GFS. RIGHT NOW WITH MODEL
DISCREPANCIES WILL KEEP BLEND POPS FOR THE MOST PART BUT WOULD THINK
THESE POPS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND UP ONCE MODELS COME INTO BETTER
ALIGNMENT. SATURDAY HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID
50S WITH TEMPERATURES MODIFYING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING THOUGH
CIGS WILL TAKE SHAPE AND START TO LOWER DOWN TO 10K FEET BY
MIDNIGHT. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD MOISTURE AND
LOWER CLOUDS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY LATER TONIGHT...WITH CIGS FALLING
INTO THE MVFR RANGE IN THE EAST BY 08Z. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD
SEE A GRADIENT IN THOSE LOWER CIGS WITH THE LOWEST (IFR/MVFR) IN THE
EAST...TRAILING BACK TO VFR IN THE WEST...THROUGH MID MORNING
WEDNESDAY. WE WILL ALSO SEE PRECIPITATION SPREAD INTO THE AREA...
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY...AS A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW...LIKELY BECOMING ALL SNOW IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. THIS SNOW WILL
RESTRICT VISIBILITIES LATER TONIGHT AS WELL...PARTICULARLY AT KSJS
WHERE VIS COULD BE BELOW A MILE AT TIMES IN THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS.
THE SNOW AND ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL END FOR THE TAF SITES FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ087-088-110-113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GREIF





000
FXUS63 KJKL 252056
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
356 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

...ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED OVER FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STILL INFLUENCING THE WEATHER OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS HAS PROVIDED PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND GENERALLY
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 KTS. THESE
CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH GOOD DRYING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON HAS SENT
TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE AREA...THOUGH
LOCATIONS NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 64 ARE LAGGING IN THE UPPER 40S. OF
NOTE ON THE SFC CHART IS AN AREA OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CROSSING
NORTHERN FLORIDA ON ITS WAY TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SEABOARD.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. THEY ALL TAKE A STRONG SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY BOTTOMING OUT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST NORTHEAST INTO
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...A
COMPACT WAVE WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE CLOSE ON THE TIMING OF
THIS BUT THE CORE OF THE ENERGY IS FURTHER SOUTH IN THE NAM...
ECMWF...AND GEM WHEN COMPARED TO THE GFS. WILL FAVOR THIS MORE
SOUTHERN TRACK AS SEEN IN THE CONSENSUS. IN GENERAL HAVE LEANED MOST
CLOSELY TO THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS OF THE NAM12 AND HRRR...
THOUGH THE HRRR PCPN FIELDS SEEM TOO FAR SOUTHEAST AND SLOW LATER
TONIGHT.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUICK INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM
THE SOUTHEAST AS THE COASTAL LOW STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE LATER THIS
EVENING. LOWER CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL START TO SPILL OVER THE SPINE OF
THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE INTO OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AROUND
MIDNIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WET BULB DOWN WHEN THE PCPN MOVES IN
AND TRANSITION THE RAIN TO SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FIRST BUT
EVENTUALLY DOWN IN THE VALLEYS...AS WELL. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER WHERE AS MUCH AS A
QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH OF LIQUID WILL LIKELY OCCUR. THIS WILL
PROBABLY AMOUNT TO BETWEEN TWO AND THREE INCHES OF WET SNOW IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...ABOVE 2000 FEET AND AROUND AN INCH OR LESS
ELSEWHERE. HIGHER RIDGES BELOW 2000 FEET CAN EXPECT TO PICK UP
BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. HAVE SET UP THIS AREA
WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH NOON WEDNESDAY
FOR THIS PASSING EVENT. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
IN THE COUNTIES IMMEDIATELY WEST OF THE ADVISORY WILL ALSO ISSUE AN
SPS ADDRESSING THIS MARGINAL CONCERN. OTHERWISE...THE COASTAL PULLS
OUT LATER WEDNESDAY WITH A BRIEF VISIT BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR EAST
KENTUCKY IN ITS WAKE. HOWEVER...THE NEXT DEVELOPING LOW WORKS IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATER THAT NIGHT CARVING ITS WAY THROUGH OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES INTO DAWN THURSDAY. THIS TOO WILL BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW
TO PARTS OF THE AREA WITH SOME SLUSHY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE MAINLY ON RIDGES AND GRASSY/ELEVATED SURFACES.

AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR T/TD/WINDS THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME
MORE SIGNIFICANT TERRAIN BASED ADJUSTMENTS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN
THE EXPECTED SNOW AREAS OF THE FAR EAST. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP
CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET NUMBERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE REGION WITH BEST POP CHANCES
ACROSS THE SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH QPF THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY
AT THIS POINT. THIS SYSTEM SLIDES EAST ALLOWING FOR NW/W FLOW TO
SETUP ACROSS THE REGION AND THEREFORE HELD SLIGHT CHANCE IN FAR SE
INTO THE AFTERNOON.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT
THURSDAY AND GENERALLY CRESTING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST BRINGING RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO EASTERN
KY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOWER 50S SATURDAY. SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WE DO PRESENT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY GENERALLY STALLS ACROSS THE NORTH.
THIS QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE QUESTION REALLY BECOMES HOW QUICKLY DOES THIS
BOUNDARY MOVE SOUTH...THAT SAID THE 12Z ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
MOVING THIS FRONT SOUTH THAN THE 12Z GFS. RIGHT NOW WITH MODEL
DISCREPANCIES WILL KEEP BLEND POPS FOR THE MOST PART BUT WOULD THINK
THESE POPS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND UP ONCE MODELS COME INTO BETTER
ALIGNMENT. SATURDAY HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID
50S WITH TEMPERATURES MODIFYING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
HOLD ON OVER THE AREA. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD
MOISTURE AND LOWERING CLOUDS BACK INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE
TONIGHT...WITH CIGS FALLING INTO THE MVFR RANGE IN THE EAST BY 08Z.
AS OF RIGHT NOW...LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD SEE A GRADIENT IN THE LOWER
CIGS WITH THE LOWEST (IFR/MVFR) IN THE EAST...TRAILING BACK TO VFR IN
THE WEST...THROUGH MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. WE WILL ALSO SEE
PRECIPITATION SPREAD INTO THE AREA...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
KENTUCKY...AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...LIKELY BECOMING ALL IN THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS. THIS SNOW WILL RESTRICT VISIBILITIES LATER TONIGHT
AS WELL...MAINLY AT KJKL AND KSJS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ087-088-110-113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GREIF







000
FXUS63 KJKL 252056
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
356 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

...ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED OVER FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STILL INFLUENCING THE WEATHER OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS HAS PROVIDED PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND GENERALLY
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 KTS. THESE
CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH GOOD DRYING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON HAS SENT
TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE AREA...THOUGH
LOCATIONS NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 64 ARE LAGGING IN THE UPPER 40S. OF
NOTE ON THE SFC CHART IS AN AREA OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CROSSING
NORTHERN FLORIDA ON ITS WAY TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SEABOARD.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. THEY ALL TAKE A STRONG SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY BOTTOMING OUT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST NORTHEAST INTO
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...A
COMPACT WAVE WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE CLOSE ON THE TIMING OF
THIS BUT THE CORE OF THE ENERGY IS FURTHER SOUTH IN THE NAM...
ECMWF...AND GEM WHEN COMPARED TO THE GFS. WILL FAVOR THIS MORE
SOUTHERN TRACK AS SEEN IN THE CONSENSUS. IN GENERAL HAVE LEANED MOST
CLOSELY TO THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS OF THE NAM12 AND HRRR...
THOUGH THE HRRR PCPN FIELDS SEEM TOO FAR SOUTHEAST AND SLOW LATER
TONIGHT.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUICK INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM
THE SOUTHEAST AS THE COASTAL LOW STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE LATER THIS
EVENING. LOWER CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL START TO SPILL OVER THE SPINE OF
THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE INTO OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AROUND
MIDNIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WET BULB DOWN WHEN THE PCPN MOVES IN
AND TRANSITION THE RAIN TO SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FIRST BUT
EVENTUALLY DOWN IN THE VALLEYS...AS WELL. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER WHERE AS MUCH AS A
QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH OF LIQUID WILL LIKELY OCCUR. THIS WILL
PROBABLY AMOUNT TO BETWEEN TWO AND THREE INCHES OF WET SNOW IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...ABOVE 2000 FEET AND AROUND AN INCH OR LESS
ELSEWHERE. HIGHER RIDGES BELOW 2000 FEET CAN EXPECT TO PICK UP
BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. HAVE SET UP THIS AREA
WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH NOON WEDNESDAY
FOR THIS PASSING EVENT. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
IN THE COUNTIES IMMEDIATELY WEST OF THE ADVISORY WILL ALSO ISSUE AN
SPS ADDRESSING THIS MARGINAL CONCERN. OTHERWISE...THE COASTAL PULLS
OUT LATER WEDNESDAY WITH A BRIEF VISIT BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR EAST
KENTUCKY IN ITS WAKE. HOWEVER...THE NEXT DEVELOPING LOW WORKS IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATER THAT NIGHT CARVING ITS WAY THROUGH OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES INTO DAWN THURSDAY. THIS TOO WILL BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW
TO PARTS OF THE AREA WITH SOME SLUSHY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE MAINLY ON RIDGES AND GRASSY/ELEVATED SURFACES.

AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR T/TD/WINDS THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME
MORE SIGNIFICANT TERRAIN BASED ADJUSTMENTS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN
THE EXPECTED SNOW AREAS OF THE FAR EAST. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP
CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET NUMBERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE REGION WITH BEST POP CHANCES
ACROSS THE SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH QPF THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY
AT THIS POINT. THIS SYSTEM SLIDES EAST ALLOWING FOR NW/W FLOW TO
SETUP ACROSS THE REGION AND THEREFORE HELD SLIGHT CHANCE IN FAR SE
INTO THE AFTERNOON.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT
THURSDAY AND GENERALLY CRESTING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST BRINGING RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO EASTERN
KY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOWER 50S SATURDAY. SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WE DO PRESENT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY GENERALLY STALLS ACROSS THE NORTH.
THIS QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE QUESTION REALLY BECOMES HOW QUICKLY DOES THIS
BOUNDARY MOVE SOUTH...THAT SAID THE 12Z ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
MOVING THIS FRONT SOUTH THAN THE 12Z GFS. RIGHT NOW WITH MODEL
DISCREPANCIES WILL KEEP BLEND POPS FOR THE MOST PART BUT WOULD THINK
THESE POPS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND UP ONCE MODELS COME INTO BETTER
ALIGNMENT. SATURDAY HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID
50S WITH TEMPERATURES MODIFYING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
HOLD ON OVER THE AREA. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD
MOISTURE AND LOWERING CLOUDS BACK INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE
TONIGHT...WITH CIGS FALLING INTO THE MVFR RANGE IN THE EAST BY 08Z.
AS OF RIGHT NOW...LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD SEE A GRADIENT IN THE LOWER
CIGS WITH THE LOWEST (IFR/MVFR) IN THE EAST...TRAILING BACK TO VFR IN
THE WEST...THROUGH MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. WE WILL ALSO SEE
PRECIPITATION SPREAD INTO THE AREA...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
KENTUCKY...AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...LIKELY BECOMING ALL IN THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS. THIS SNOW WILL RESTRICT VISIBILITIES LATER TONIGHT
AS WELL...MAINLY AT KJKL AND KSJS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ087-088-110-113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GREIF








000
FXUS63 KJKL 252025 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
325 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

...ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED OVER FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STILL INFLUENCING THE WEATHER OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS HAS PROVIDED PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND GENERALLY
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 KTS. THESE
CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH GOOD DRYING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON HAS SENT
TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE AREA...THOUGH
LOCATIONS NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 64 ARE LAGGING IN THE UPPER 40S. OF
NOTE ON THE SFC CHART IS AN AREA OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CROSSING
NORTHERN FLORIDA ON ITS WAY TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SEABOARD.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. THEY ALL TAKE A STRONG SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY BOTTOMING OUT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST NORTHEAST INTO
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...A
COMPACT WAVE WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE CLOSE ON THE TIMING OF
THIS BUT THE CORE OF THE ENERGY IS FURTHER SOUTH IN THE NAM...
ECMWF...AND GEM WHEN COMPARED TO THE GFS. WILL FAVOR THIS MORE
SOUTHERN TRACK AS SEEN IN THE CONSENSUS. IN GENERAL HAVE LEANED MOST
CLOSELY TO THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS OF THE NAM12 AND HRRR...
THOUGH THE HRRR PCPN FIELDS SEEM TOO FAR SOUTHEAST AND SLOW LATER
TONIGHT.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUICK INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM
THE SOUTHEAST AS THE COASTAL LOW STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE LATER THIS
EVENING. LOWER CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL START TO SPILL OVER THE SPINE OF
THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE INTO OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AROUND
MIDNIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WET BULB DOWN WHEN THE PCPN MOVES IN
AND TRANSITION THE RAIN TO SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FIRST BUT
EVENTUALLY DOWN IN THE VALLEYS...AS WELL. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER WHERE AS MUCH AS A
QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH OF LIQUID WILL LIKELY OCCUR. THIS WILL
PROBABLY AMOUNT TO BETWEEN TWO AND THREE INCHES OF WET SNOW IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...ABOVE 2000 FEET AND AROUND AN INCH OR LESS
ELSEWHERE. HIGHER RIDGES BELOW 2000 FEET CAN EXPECT TO PICK UP
BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. HAVE SET UP THIS AREA
WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH NOON WEDNESDAY
FOR THIS PASSING EVENT. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
IN THE COUNTIES IMMEDIATELY WEST OF THE ADVISORY WILL ALSO ISSUE AN
SPS ADDRESSING THIS MARGINAL CONCERN. OTHERWISE...THE COASTAL PULLS
OUT LATER WEDNESDAY WITH A BRIEF VISIT BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR EAST
KENTUCKY IN ITS WAKE. HOWEVER...THE NEXT DEVELOPING LOW WORKS IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATER THAT NIGHT CARVING ITS WAY THROUGH OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES INTO DAWN THURSDAY. THIS TOO WILL BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW
TO PARTS OF THE AREA WITH SOME SLUSHY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE MAINLY ON RIDGES AND GRASSY/ELEVATED SURFACES.

AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR T/TD/WINDS THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME
MORE SIGNIFICANT TERRAIN BASED ADJUSTMENTS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN
THE EXPECTED SNOW AREAS OF THE FAR EAST. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP
CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET NUMBERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE MODELS BEGIN THE PERIOD IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH A LARGE
SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EJECTING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THIS INITIAL SYSTEM
WILL BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...SO ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT
SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND NOT VERY HEAVY. A SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL
SPILL INTO THE REGION AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS...WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY
ONLY TOPPING OUT AROUND 40 DEGREES...AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S AND LOWER 30S. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN PROGGED TO
BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND...WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON TAP FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. SATURDAY COULD MARK THE START OF A SIGNIFICANT WARMING
TREND...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. THE
REGION IS EXPECTED TO WARM EVEN MORE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS THE
MERCURY CLIMBS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BOTH
DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FEEL ALMOST
BALMY IF THEY IN FACT ONLY DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S EACH NIGHT.

ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL LIKELY SPILL INTO THE REGION TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD TO ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX WITH RAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. LITTLE IF ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT...AS A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO AND STALLS OUT ACROSS THE AREA. THE
MODELS KEEP THE FRONT IN PLACE...AND THEREFORE THE THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION...THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
THAT OCCURS TO REMAIN IN LIQUID FORM. DUE TO SOME SMALL TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS REGARDING PRECIPITATION
ONSET...DURATION...AND AREAL COVERAGE...DECIDED TO GO WITH ONLY
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA...THE FRONT
COULD EITHER REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE AREA...ECMWF...OR DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTH AS A WEAK WARM FRONT...GFS...DURING THE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. ONLY TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
HOLD ON OVER THE AREA. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD
MOISTURE AND LOWERING CLOUDS BACK INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE
TONIGHT...WITH CIGS FALLING INTO THE MVFR RANGE IN THE EAST BY 08Z.
AS OF RIGHT NOW...LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD SEE A GRADIENT IN THE LOWER
CIGS WITH THE LOWEST (IFR/MVFR) IN THE EAST...TRAILING BACK TO VFR IN
THE WEST...THROUGH MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. WE WILL ALSO SEE
PRECIPITATION SPREAD INTO THE AREA...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
KENTUCKY...AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...LIKELY BECOMING ALL IN THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS. THIS SNOW WILL RESTRICT VISIBILITIES LATER TONIGHT
AS WELL...MAINLY AT KJKL AND KSJS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ087-088-110-113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF






000
FXUS63 KJKL 252025 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
325 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

...ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED OVER FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STILL INFLUENCING THE WEATHER OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS HAS PROVIDED PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND GENERALLY
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 KTS. THESE
CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH GOOD DRYING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON HAS SENT
TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE AREA...THOUGH
LOCATIONS NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 64 ARE LAGGING IN THE UPPER 40S. OF
NOTE ON THE SFC CHART IS AN AREA OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CROSSING
NORTHERN FLORIDA ON ITS WAY TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SEABOARD.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. THEY ALL TAKE A STRONG SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY BOTTOMING OUT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST NORTHEAST INTO
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...A
COMPACT WAVE WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE CLOSE ON THE TIMING OF
THIS BUT THE CORE OF THE ENERGY IS FURTHER SOUTH IN THE NAM...
ECMWF...AND GEM WHEN COMPARED TO THE GFS. WILL FAVOR THIS MORE
SOUTHERN TRACK AS SEEN IN THE CONSENSUS. IN GENERAL HAVE LEANED MOST
CLOSELY TO THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS OF THE NAM12 AND HRRR...
THOUGH THE HRRR PCPN FIELDS SEEM TOO FAR SOUTHEAST AND SLOW LATER
TONIGHT.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUICK INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM
THE SOUTHEAST AS THE COASTAL LOW STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE LATER THIS
EVENING. LOWER CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL START TO SPILL OVER THE SPINE OF
THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE INTO OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AROUND
MIDNIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WET BULB DOWN WHEN THE PCPN MOVES IN
AND TRANSITION THE RAIN TO SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FIRST BUT
EVENTUALLY DOWN IN THE VALLEYS...AS WELL. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER WHERE AS MUCH AS A
QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH OF LIQUID WILL LIKELY OCCUR. THIS WILL
PROBABLY AMOUNT TO BETWEEN TWO AND THREE INCHES OF WET SNOW IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...ABOVE 2000 FEET AND AROUND AN INCH OR LESS
ELSEWHERE. HIGHER RIDGES BELOW 2000 FEET CAN EXPECT TO PICK UP
BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. HAVE SET UP THIS AREA
WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH NOON WEDNESDAY
FOR THIS PASSING EVENT. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
IN THE COUNTIES IMMEDIATELY WEST OF THE ADVISORY WILL ALSO ISSUE AN
SPS ADDRESSING THIS MARGINAL CONCERN. OTHERWISE...THE COASTAL PULLS
OUT LATER WEDNESDAY WITH A BRIEF VISIT BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR EAST
KENTUCKY IN ITS WAKE. HOWEVER...THE NEXT DEVELOPING LOW WORKS IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATER THAT NIGHT CARVING ITS WAY THROUGH OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES INTO DAWN THURSDAY. THIS TOO WILL BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW
TO PARTS OF THE AREA WITH SOME SLUSHY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE MAINLY ON RIDGES AND GRASSY/ELEVATED SURFACES.

AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR T/TD/WINDS THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME
MORE SIGNIFICANT TERRAIN BASED ADJUSTMENTS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN
THE EXPECTED SNOW AREAS OF THE FAR EAST. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP
CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET NUMBERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE MODELS BEGIN THE PERIOD IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH A LARGE
SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EJECTING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THIS INITIAL SYSTEM
WILL BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...SO ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT
SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND NOT VERY HEAVY. A SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL
SPILL INTO THE REGION AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS...WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY
ONLY TOPPING OUT AROUND 40 DEGREES...AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S AND LOWER 30S. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN PROGGED TO
BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND...WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON TAP FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. SATURDAY COULD MARK THE START OF A SIGNIFICANT WARMING
TREND...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. THE
REGION IS EXPECTED TO WARM EVEN MORE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS THE
MERCURY CLIMBS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BOTH
DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FEEL ALMOST
BALMY IF THEY IN FACT ONLY DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S EACH NIGHT.

ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL LIKELY SPILL INTO THE REGION TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD TO ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX WITH RAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. LITTLE IF ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT...AS A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO AND STALLS OUT ACROSS THE AREA. THE
MODELS KEEP THE FRONT IN PLACE...AND THEREFORE THE THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION...THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
THAT OCCURS TO REMAIN IN LIQUID FORM. DUE TO SOME SMALL TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS REGARDING PRECIPITATION
ONSET...DURATION...AND AREAL COVERAGE...DECIDED TO GO WITH ONLY
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA...THE FRONT
COULD EITHER REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE AREA...ECMWF...OR DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTH AS A WEAK WARM FRONT...GFS...DURING THE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. ONLY TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
HOLD ON OVER THE AREA. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD
MOISTURE AND LOWERING CLOUDS BACK INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE
TONIGHT...WITH CIGS FALLING INTO THE MVFR RANGE IN THE EAST BY 08Z.
AS OF RIGHT NOW...LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD SEE A GRADIENT IN THE LOWER
CIGS WITH THE LOWEST (IFR/MVFR) IN THE EAST...TRAILING BACK TO VFR IN
THE WEST...THROUGH MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. WE WILL ALSO SEE
PRECIPITATION SPREAD INTO THE AREA...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
KENTUCKY...AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...LIKELY BECOMING ALL IN THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS. THIS SNOW WILL RESTRICT VISIBILITIES LATER TONIGHT
AS WELL...MAINLY AT KJKL AND KSJS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ087-088-110-113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF





000
FXUS63 KJKL 251820 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
120 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 120 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

DID A QUICK PRIMARILY TO BUMP UP TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE SUNNY SKIES
AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE. ALSO TWEAKED THE HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS
PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND
WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1025 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING INTO EAST
KENTUCKY THIS MORNING BRINGING SUNNY SKIES AND A DRIER AIR MASS. THE
EARLIER HIGH CLOUDS HAVE SLID OFF TO THE EAST OF THE STATE AND WINDS
ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S IN
MOST PLACES ACROSS THE CWA NOW THAT THE COLDER VALLEYS ARE STARTING
TO MIX OUT. DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOW 30S...BUT WITH DRIER
AIR OFF THE SFC THESE ARE EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN INTO THE 20S THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. FIRST GLANCE OF THE LATEST NAM12 SHOWS THE SOUTHEAST
LOW A BIT FURTHER EAST FROM THE MORE AGGRESSIVE 06Z RUN. HOWEVER...IT
STILL HAS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF PCPN FALLING TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING IN AND NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER COUNTIES WHERE MUCH OF IT
WILL LIKELY WET BULB TO SNOW. SOME ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR LIKELY...
PARTICULARLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND ON GRASSY/ELEVATED SFCS
ELSEWHERE. THE SPS CONTINUES BUT MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO AN
ADVISORY LATER THIS AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON HOW THE OTHER MODELS COME
IN. FOR THIS UPDATE...HAVE MAINLY FINE TUNED T AND TD GRIDS INTO THE
AFTERNOON PER THE LATEST OBS...TRENDS...AND CONSSHORT GUIDANCE. THESE
HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 621 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

06Z NAM AND GFS ARE NOW IN AND BOTH ARE A LITTLE MORE ROBUST WITH
PRECIPITATION AND BOTH A TAD FARTHER WEST WITH THE EXTENT. IN
FACT...THE NAM SNOWFALL ALGORITHM IS SUGGESTING AS MUCH AS 5 INCHES
OF SNOW COULD FALL OVER FAR SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...THIS IS THE
FIRST RUN SUGGESTING THIS HIGH OF QPF AND WILLING TO CONSIDER IT AN
OUTLIER FOR NOW...BUT THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
FOR POSSIBLE TRENDS TOWARDS THE HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT.
ALREADY SEEING SOME COOLER CLOUD TOPS DEVELOPING ACROSS EAST
TEXAS...SO AS MENTIONED...MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR A FARTHER WEST EXTENT
TO THE PRECIPITATION.

ALSO SOMETHING ELSE TO CONSIDER...DRY AIR MIX DOWN ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON MAY BRING DOWN SOME AWFULLY LOW
DEWPOINTS...WHICH WOULD SET THE STAGE FOR GOOD WET BULB COOLING AS
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN TONIGHT. THUS...IF LOWER DEWPOINTS
MATERIALIZE...THEY MAY HELP DISTINGUISH BETWEEN WHO GETS MORE
SNOW...VERSES MORE RAIN. LOWER DEWPOINTS WOULD ALLOW FOR A FASTER
TRANSITION TO SNOW...AND THUS...MORE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. FOR
NOW...WILLING TO SIT ON THIS AND LET DAY-SHIFT RE-EVALUATE THE NEED
FOR ANY CHANGES. IF MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD COURSE...IT LOOKS LIKE AT
A MINIMUM A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WOULD BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF
THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING
WITH SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR. THIS WILL HOLD THROUGH
THE DAY...PROVIDING A COOLER...BUT STILL RELATIVELY PLEASANT DAY. IN
FACT...WITH THE HELP OF THE SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES IN SOME PLACES
ALREADY IN THE 40S THIS MORNING...WE SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM
SURPASSING THE 50 DEGREE MARK THIS AFTERNOON. WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR JUST OFF THE SURFACE...RAP AND HRRR ARE SUGGESTING
FAIRLY LOW DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY. IT MIGHT BE A STRETCH TO FALL INTO THE TEENS...BUT
CERTAINLY DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE MID 20S WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS WILL
PUT US CLOSE TO THE 25 PERCENT RH`S THIS AFTERNOON. I WOULDN`T BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SPOTS ACTUALLY REACH THIS VALUE...ESPECIALLY
IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT.
MODELS HAVE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER FLORIDA AND
TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. NEARLY ALL MODELS ARE IN
SUPPORT OF MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPING
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST AND EAST KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR IN PLACE...WET BULB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY LOW. ASSUMING WE GET PRECIP RATES THAT
SUPPORT IT...WE SHOULD SEE PRIMARILY SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT SOME RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE FARTHER INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
WHERE PRECIP RATES MAY NOT BE AS HIGH. REGARDLESS...WE SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE ABOVE 2500 FEET...WHERE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE.
LIGHTER AMOUNTS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS UP TO AN INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR AREAS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM INEZ TO HAZARD...TO
BARBOURVILLE. WHILE SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...THE
REST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY MAY NOT SEE MUCH MORE THAN INCREASED CLOUD
COVER. PLAN TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE AN SPS FOR OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
TO ADDRESS THE POTENTIAL SNOWFALL. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER
INTO WEDNESDAY...WENT WITH A PRETTY GOOD GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES
FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH READINGS AROUND 50 IN THE WEST TO LOW AND
MID 30S IN THE EAST. PRECIPITATION WILL DEPART BY MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPORARY BREAK IN PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE MODELS BEGIN THE PERIOD IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH A LARGE
SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EJECTING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THIS INITIAL SYSTEM
WILL BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...SO ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT
SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND NOT VERY HEAVY. A SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL
SPILL INTO THE REGION AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS...WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY
ONLY TOPPING OUT AROUND 40 DEGREES...AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S AND LOWER 30S. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN PROGGED TO
BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND...WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON TAP FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. SATURDAY COULD MARK THE START OF A SIGNIFICANT WARMING
TREND...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. THE
REGION IS EXPECTED TO WARM EVEN MORE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS THE
MERCURY CLIMBS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BOTH
DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FEEL ALMOST
BALMY IF THEY IN FACT ONLY DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S EACH NIGHT.

ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL LIKELY SPILL INTO THE REGION TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD TO ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX WITH RAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. LITTLE IF ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT...AS A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO AND STALLS OUT ACROSS THE AREA. THE
MODELS KEEP THE FRONT IN PLACE...AND THEREFORE THE THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION...THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
THAT OCCURS TO REMAIN IN LIQUID FORM. DUE TO SOME SMALL TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS REGARDING PRECIPITATION
ONSET...DURATION...AND AREAL COVERAGE...DECIDED TO GO WITH ONLY
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA...THE FRONT
COULD EITHER REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE AREA...ECMWF...OR DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTH AS A WEAK WARM FRONT...GFS...DURING THE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. ONLY TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
HOLD ON OVER THE AREA. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD
MOISTURE AND LOWERING CLOUDS BACK INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE
TONIGHT...WITH CIGS FALLING INTO THE MVFR RANGE IN THE EAST BY 08Z.
AS OF RIGHT NOW...LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD SEE A GRADIENT IN THE LOWER
CIGS WITH THE LOWEST (IFR/MVFR) IN THE EAST...TRAILING BACK TO VFR IN
THE WEST...THROUGH MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. WE WILL ALSO SEE
PRECIPITATION SPREAD INTO THE AREA...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
KENTUCKY...AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...LIKELY BECOMING ALL IN THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS. THIS SNOW WILL RESTRICT VISIBILITIES LATER TONIGHT
AS WELL...MAINLY AT KJKL AND KSJS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF





000
FXUS63 KJKL 251820 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
120 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 120 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

DID A QUICK PRIMARILY TO BUMP UP TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE SUNNY SKIES
AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE. ALSO TWEAKED THE HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS
PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND
WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1025 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING INTO EAST
KENTUCKY THIS MORNING BRINGING SUNNY SKIES AND A DRIER AIR MASS. THE
EARLIER HIGH CLOUDS HAVE SLID OFF TO THE EAST OF THE STATE AND WINDS
ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S IN
MOST PLACES ACROSS THE CWA NOW THAT THE COLDER VALLEYS ARE STARTING
TO MIX OUT. DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOW 30S...BUT WITH DRIER
AIR OFF THE SFC THESE ARE EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN INTO THE 20S THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. FIRST GLANCE OF THE LATEST NAM12 SHOWS THE SOUTHEAST
LOW A BIT FURTHER EAST FROM THE MORE AGGRESSIVE 06Z RUN. HOWEVER...IT
STILL HAS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF PCPN FALLING TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING IN AND NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER COUNTIES WHERE MUCH OF IT
WILL LIKELY WET BULB TO SNOW. SOME ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR LIKELY...
PARTICULARLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND ON GRASSY/ELEVATED SFCS
ELSEWHERE. THE SPS CONTINUES BUT MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO AN
ADVISORY LATER THIS AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON HOW THE OTHER MODELS COME
IN. FOR THIS UPDATE...HAVE MAINLY FINE TUNED T AND TD GRIDS INTO THE
AFTERNOON PER THE LATEST OBS...TRENDS...AND CONSSHORT GUIDANCE. THESE
HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 621 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

06Z NAM AND GFS ARE NOW IN AND BOTH ARE A LITTLE MORE ROBUST WITH
PRECIPITATION AND BOTH A TAD FARTHER WEST WITH THE EXTENT. IN
FACT...THE NAM SNOWFALL ALGORITHM IS SUGGESTING AS MUCH AS 5 INCHES
OF SNOW COULD FALL OVER FAR SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...THIS IS THE
FIRST RUN SUGGESTING THIS HIGH OF QPF AND WILLING TO CONSIDER IT AN
OUTLIER FOR NOW...BUT THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
FOR POSSIBLE TRENDS TOWARDS THE HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT.
ALREADY SEEING SOME COOLER CLOUD TOPS DEVELOPING ACROSS EAST
TEXAS...SO AS MENTIONED...MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR A FARTHER WEST EXTENT
TO THE PRECIPITATION.

ALSO SOMETHING ELSE TO CONSIDER...DRY AIR MIX DOWN ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON MAY BRING DOWN SOME AWFULLY LOW
DEWPOINTS...WHICH WOULD SET THE STAGE FOR GOOD WET BULB COOLING AS
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN TONIGHT. THUS...IF LOWER DEWPOINTS
MATERIALIZE...THEY MAY HELP DISTINGUISH BETWEEN WHO GETS MORE
SNOW...VERSES MORE RAIN. LOWER DEWPOINTS WOULD ALLOW FOR A FASTER
TRANSITION TO SNOW...AND THUS...MORE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. FOR
NOW...WILLING TO SIT ON THIS AND LET DAY-SHIFT RE-EVALUATE THE NEED
FOR ANY CHANGES. IF MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD COURSE...IT LOOKS LIKE AT
A MINIMUM A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WOULD BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF
THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING
WITH SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR. THIS WILL HOLD THROUGH
THE DAY...PROVIDING A COOLER...BUT STILL RELATIVELY PLEASANT DAY. IN
FACT...WITH THE HELP OF THE SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES IN SOME PLACES
ALREADY IN THE 40S THIS MORNING...WE SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM
SURPASSING THE 50 DEGREE MARK THIS AFTERNOON. WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR JUST OFF THE SURFACE...RAP AND HRRR ARE SUGGESTING
FAIRLY LOW DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY. IT MIGHT BE A STRETCH TO FALL INTO THE TEENS...BUT
CERTAINLY DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE MID 20S WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS WILL
PUT US CLOSE TO THE 25 PERCENT RH`S THIS AFTERNOON. I WOULDN`T BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SPOTS ACTUALLY REACH THIS VALUE...ESPECIALLY
IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT.
MODELS HAVE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER FLORIDA AND
TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. NEARLY ALL MODELS ARE IN
SUPPORT OF MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPING
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST AND EAST KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR IN PLACE...WET BULB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY LOW. ASSUMING WE GET PRECIP RATES THAT
SUPPORT IT...WE SHOULD SEE PRIMARILY SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT SOME RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE FARTHER INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
WHERE PRECIP RATES MAY NOT BE AS HIGH. REGARDLESS...WE SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE ABOVE 2500 FEET...WHERE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE.
LIGHTER AMOUNTS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS UP TO AN INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR AREAS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM INEZ TO HAZARD...TO
BARBOURVILLE. WHILE SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...THE
REST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY MAY NOT SEE MUCH MORE THAN INCREASED CLOUD
COVER. PLAN TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE AN SPS FOR OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
TO ADDRESS THE POTENTIAL SNOWFALL. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER
INTO WEDNESDAY...WENT WITH A PRETTY GOOD GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES
FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH READINGS AROUND 50 IN THE WEST TO LOW AND
MID 30S IN THE EAST. PRECIPITATION WILL DEPART BY MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPORARY BREAK IN PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE MODELS BEGIN THE PERIOD IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH A LARGE
SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EJECTING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THIS INITIAL SYSTEM
WILL BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...SO ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT
SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND NOT VERY HEAVY. A SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL
SPILL INTO THE REGION AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS...WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY
ONLY TOPPING OUT AROUND 40 DEGREES...AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S AND LOWER 30S. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN PROGGED TO
BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND...WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON TAP FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. SATURDAY COULD MARK THE START OF A SIGNIFICANT WARMING
TREND...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. THE
REGION IS EXPECTED TO WARM EVEN MORE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS THE
MERCURY CLIMBS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BOTH
DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FEEL ALMOST
BALMY IF THEY IN FACT ONLY DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S EACH NIGHT.

ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL LIKELY SPILL INTO THE REGION TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD TO ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX WITH RAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. LITTLE IF ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT...AS A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO AND STALLS OUT ACROSS THE AREA. THE
MODELS KEEP THE FRONT IN PLACE...AND THEREFORE THE THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION...THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
THAT OCCURS TO REMAIN IN LIQUID FORM. DUE TO SOME SMALL TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS REGARDING PRECIPITATION
ONSET...DURATION...AND AREAL COVERAGE...DECIDED TO GO WITH ONLY
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA...THE FRONT
COULD EITHER REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE AREA...ECMWF...OR DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTH AS A WEAK WARM FRONT...GFS...DURING THE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. ONLY TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
HOLD ON OVER THE AREA. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD
MOISTURE AND LOWERING CLOUDS BACK INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE
TONIGHT...WITH CIGS FALLING INTO THE MVFR RANGE IN THE EAST BY 08Z.
AS OF RIGHT NOW...LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD SEE A GRADIENT IN THE LOWER
CIGS WITH THE LOWEST (IFR/MVFR) IN THE EAST...TRAILING BACK TO VFR IN
THE WEST...THROUGH MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. WE WILL ALSO SEE
PRECIPITATION SPREAD INTO THE AREA...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
KENTUCKY...AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...LIKELY BECOMING ALL IN THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS. THIS SNOW WILL RESTRICT VISIBILITIES LATER TONIGHT
AS WELL...MAINLY AT KJKL AND KSJS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF






000
FXUS63 KJKL 251525 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1025 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1025 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING INTO EAST
KENTUCKY THIS MORNING BRINGING SUNNY SKIES AND A DRIER AIR MASS. THE
EARLIER HIGH CLOUDS HAVE SLID OFF TO THE EAST OF THE STATE AND WINDS
ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S IN
MOST PLACES ACROSS THE CWA NOW THAT THE COLDER VALLEYS ARE STARTING
TO MIX OUT. DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOW 30S...BUT WITH DRIER
AIR OFF THE SFC THESE ARE EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN INTO THE 20S THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. FIRST GLANCE OF THE LATEST NAM12 SHOWS THE SOUTHEAST
LOW A BIT FURTHER EAST FROM THE MORE AGGRESSIVE 06Z RUN. HOWEVER...IT
STILL HAS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF PCPN FALLING TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING IN AND NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER COUNTIES WHERE MUCH OF IT
WILL LIKELY WET BULB TO SNOW. SOME ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR LIKELY...
PARTICULARLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND ON GRASSY/ELEVATED SFCS
ELSEWHERE. THE SPS CONTINUES BUT MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO AN
ADVISORY LATER THIS AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON HOW THE OTHER MODELS COME
IN. FOR THIS UPDATE...HAVE MAINLY FINE TUNED T AND TD GRIDS INTO THE
AFTERNOON PER THE LATEST OBS...TRENDS...AND CONSSHORT GUIDANCE. THESE
HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 621 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

06Z NAM AND GFS ARE NOW IN AND BOTH ARE A LITTLE MORE ROBUST WITH
PRECIPITATION AND BOTH A TAD FARTHER WEST WITH THE EXTENT. IN
FACT...THE NAM SNOWFALL ALGORITHM IS SUGGESTING AS MUCH AS 5 INCHES
OF SNOW COULD FALL OVER FAR SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...THIS IS THE
FIRST RUN SUGGESTING THIS HIGH OF QPF AND WILLING TO CONSIDER IT AN
OUTLIER FOR NOW...BUT THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
FOR POSSIBLE TRENDS TOWARDS THE HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT.
ALREADY SEEING SOME COOLER CLOUD TOPS DEVELOPING ACROSS EAST
TEXAS...SO AS MENTIONED...MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR A FARTHER WEST EXTENT
TO THE PRECIPITATION.

ALSO SOMETHING ELSE TO CONSIDER...DRY AIR MIX DOWN ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON MAY BRING DOWN SOME AWFULLY LOW
DEWPOINTS...WHICH WOULD SET THE STAGE FOR GOOD WET BULB COOLING AS
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN TONIGHT. THUS...IF LOWER DEWPOINTS
MATERIALIZE...THEY MAY HELP DISTINGUISH BETWEEN WHO GETS MORE
SNOW...VERSES MORE RAIN. LOWER DEWPOINTS WOULD ALLOW FOR A FASTER
TRANSITION TO SNOW...AND THUS...MORE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. FOR
NOW...WILLING TO SIT ON THIS AND LET DAY-SHIFT RE-EVALUATE THE NEED
FOR ANY CHANGES. IF MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD COURSE...IT LOOKS LIKE AT
A MINIMUM A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WOULD BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF
THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING
WITH SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR. THIS WILL HOLD THROUGH
THE DAY...PROVIDING A COOLER...BUT STILL RELATIVELY PLEASANT DAY. IN
FACT...WITH THE HELP OF THE SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES IN SOME PLACES
ALREADY IN THE 40S THIS MORNING...WE SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM
SURPASSING THE 50 DEGREE MARK THIS AFTERNOON. WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR JUST OFF THE SURFACE...RAP AND HRRR ARE SUGGESTING
FAIRLY LOW DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY. IT MIGHT BE A STRETCH TO FALL INTO THE TEENS...BUT
CERTAINLY DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE MID 20S WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS WILL
PUT US CLOSE TO THE 25 PERCENT RH`S THIS AFTERNOON. I WOULDN`T BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SPOTS ACTUALLY REACH THIS VALUE...ESPECIALLY
IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT.
MODELS HAVE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER FLORIDA AND
TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. NEARLY ALL MODELS ARE IN
SUPPORT OF MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPING
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST AND EAST KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR IN PLACE...WET BULB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY LOW. ASSUMING WE GET PRECIP RATES THAT
SUPPORT IT...WE SHOULD SEE PRIMARILY SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT SOME RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE FARTHER INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
WHERE PRECIP RATES MAY NOT BE AS HIGH. REGARDLESS...WE SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE ABOVE 2500 FEET...WHERE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE.
LIGHTER AMOUNTS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS UP TO AN INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR AREAS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM INEZ TO HAZARD...TO
BARBOURVILLE. WHILE SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...THE
REST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY MAY NOT SEE MUCH MORE THAN INCREASED CLOUD
COVER. PLAN TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE AN SPS FOR OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
TO ADDRESS THE POTENTIAL SNOWFALL. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER
INTO WEDNESDAY...WENT WITH A PRETTY GOOD GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES
FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH READINGS AROUND 50 IN THE WEST TO LOW AND
MID 30S IN THE EAST. PRECIPITATION WILL DEPART BY MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPORARY BREAK IN PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE MODELS BEGIN THE PERIOD IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH A LARGE
SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EJECTING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THIS INITIAL SYSTEM
WILL BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...SO ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT
SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND NOT VERY HEAVY. A SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL
SPILL INTO THE REGION AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS...WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY
ONLY TOPPING OUT AROUND 40 DEGREES...AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S AND LOWER 30S. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN PROGGED TO
BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND...WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON TAP FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. SATURDAY COULD MARK THE START OF A SIGNIFICANT WARMING
TREND...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. THE
REGION IS EXPECTED TO WARM EVEN MORE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS THE
MERCURY CLIMBS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BOTH
DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FEEL ALMOST
BALMY IF THEY IN FACT ONLY DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S EACH NIGHT.

ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL LIKELY SPILL INTO THE REGION TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD TO ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX WITH RAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. LITTLE IF ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT...AS A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO AND STALLS OUT ACROSS THE AREA. THE
MODELS KEEP THE FRONT IN PLACE...AND THEREFORE THE THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION...THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
THAT OCCURS TO REMAIN IN LIQUID FORM. DUE TO SOME SMALL TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS REGARDING PRECIPITATION
ONSET...DURATION...AND AREAL COVERAGE...DECIDED TO GO WITH ONLY
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA...THE FRONT
COULD EITHER REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE AREA...ECMWF...OR DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTH AS A WEAK WARM FRONT...GFS...DURING THE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. ONLY TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
SPREAD MOISTURE BACK INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE TONIGHT...WITH CIGS
LOWERING. AS OF RIGHT NOW...LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD SEE A GRADIENT IN
THE LOWER CIGS WITH THE LOWEST (IFR/MVFR) IN THE EAST...TRAILING
BACK TO VFR IN THE WEST. WE WILL ALSO SEE PRECIPITATION SPREAD INTO
THE AREA...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY...WITH A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW...LIKELY BECOMING ALL SNOW. THIS WILL RESTRICT VISIBILITIES
BY LATE TONIGHT AS WELL...MAINLY AT KJKL AND KSJS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...KAS





000
FXUS63 KJKL 251525 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1025 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1025 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING INTO EAST
KENTUCKY THIS MORNING BRINGING SUNNY SKIES AND A DRIER AIR MASS. THE
EARLIER HIGH CLOUDS HAVE SLID OFF TO THE EAST OF THE STATE AND WINDS
ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S IN
MOST PLACES ACROSS THE CWA NOW THAT THE COLDER VALLEYS ARE STARTING
TO MIX OUT. DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOW 30S...BUT WITH DRIER
AIR OFF THE SFC THESE ARE EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN INTO THE 20S THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. FIRST GLANCE OF THE LATEST NAM12 SHOWS THE SOUTHEAST
LOW A BIT FURTHER EAST FROM THE MORE AGGRESSIVE 06Z RUN. HOWEVER...IT
STILL HAS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF PCPN FALLING TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING IN AND NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER COUNTIES WHERE MUCH OF IT
WILL LIKELY WET BULB TO SNOW. SOME ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR LIKELY...
PARTICULARLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND ON GRASSY/ELEVATED SFCS
ELSEWHERE. THE SPS CONTINUES BUT MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO AN
ADVISORY LATER THIS AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON HOW THE OTHER MODELS COME
IN. FOR THIS UPDATE...HAVE MAINLY FINE TUNED T AND TD GRIDS INTO THE
AFTERNOON PER THE LATEST OBS...TRENDS...AND CONSSHORT GUIDANCE. THESE
HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 621 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

06Z NAM AND GFS ARE NOW IN AND BOTH ARE A LITTLE MORE ROBUST WITH
PRECIPITATION AND BOTH A TAD FARTHER WEST WITH THE EXTENT. IN
FACT...THE NAM SNOWFALL ALGORITHM IS SUGGESTING AS MUCH AS 5 INCHES
OF SNOW COULD FALL OVER FAR SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...THIS IS THE
FIRST RUN SUGGESTING THIS HIGH OF QPF AND WILLING TO CONSIDER IT AN
OUTLIER FOR NOW...BUT THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
FOR POSSIBLE TRENDS TOWARDS THE HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT.
ALREADY SEEING SOME COOLER CLOUD TOPS DEVELOPING ACROSS EAST
TEXAS...SO AS MENTIONED...MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR A FARTHER WEST EXTENT
TO THE PRECIPITATION.

ALSO SOMETHING ELSE TO CONSIDER...DRY AIR MIX DOWN ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON MAY BRING DOWN SOME AWFULLY LOW
DEWPOINTS...WHICH WOULD SET THE STAGE FOR GOOD WET BULB COOLING AS
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN TONIGHT. THUS...IF LOWER DEWPOINTS
MATERIALIZE...THEY MAY HELP DISTINGUISH BETWEEN WHO GETS MORE
SNOW...VERSES MORE RAIN. LOWER DEWPOINTS WOULD ALLOW FOR A FASTER
TRANSITION TO SNOW...AND THUS...MORE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. FOR
NOW...WILLING TO SIT ON THIS AND LET DAY-SHIFT RE-EVALUATE THE NEED
FOR ANY CHANGES. IF MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD COURSE...IT LOOKS LIKE AT
A MINIMUM A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WOULD BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF
THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING
WITH SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR. THIS WILL HOLD THROUGH
THE DAY...PROVIDING A COOLER...BUT STILL RELATIVELY PLEASANT DAY. IN
FACT...WITH THE HELP OF THE SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES IN SOME PLACES
ALREADY IN THE 40S THIS MORNING...WE SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM
SURPASSING THE 50 DEGREE MARK THIS AFTERNOON. WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR JUST OFF THE SURFACE...RAP AND HRRR ARE SUGGESTING
FAIRLY LOW DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY. IT MIGHT BE A STRETCH TO FALL INTO THE TEENS...BUT
CERTAINLY DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE MID 20S WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS WILL
PUT US CLOSE TO THE 25 PERCENT RH`S THIS AFTERNOON. I WOULDN`T BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SPOTS ACTUALLY REACH THIS VALUE...ESPECIALLY
IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT.
MODELS HAVE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER FLORIDA AND
TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. NEARLY ALL MODELS ARE IN
SUPPORT OF MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPING
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST AND EAST KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR IN PLACE...WET BULB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY LOW. ASSUMING WE GET PRECIP RATES THAT
SUPPORT IT...WE SHOULD SEE PRIMARILY SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT SOME RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE FARTHER INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
WHERE PRECIP RATES MAY NOT BE AS HIGH. REGARDLESS...WE SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE ABOVE 2500 FEET...WHERE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE.
LIGHTER AMOUNTS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS UP TO AN INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR AREAS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM INEZ TO HAZARD...TO
BARBOURVILLE. WHILE SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...THE
REST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY MAY NOT SEE MUCH MORE THAN INCREASED CLOUD
COVER. PLAN TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE AN SPS FOR OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
TO ADDRESS THE POTENTIAL SNOWFALL. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER
INTO WEDNESDAY...WENT WITH A PRETTY GOOD GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES
FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH READINGS AROUND 50 IN THE WEST TO LOW AND
MID 30S IN THE EAST. PRECIPITATION WILL DEPART BY MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPORARY BREAK IN PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE MODELS BEGIN THE PERIOD IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH A LARGE
SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EJECTING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THIS INITIAL SYSTEM
WILL BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...SO ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT
SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND NOT VERY HEAVY. A SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL
SPILL INTO THE REGION AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS...WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY
ONLY TOPPING OUT AROUND 40 DEGREES...AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S AND LOWER 30S. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN PROGGED TO
BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND...WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON TAP FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. SATURDAY COULD MARK THE START OF A SIGNIFICANT WARMING
TREND...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. THE
REGION IS EXPECTED TO WARM EVEN MORE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS THE
MERCURY CLIMBS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BOTH
DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FEEL ALMOST
BALMY IF THEY IN FACT ONLY DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S EACH NIGHT.

ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL LIKELY SPILL INTO THE REGION TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD TO ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX WITH RAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. LITTLE IF ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT...AS A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO AND STALLS OUT ACROSS THE AREA. THE
MODELS KEEP THE FRONT IN PLACE...AND THEREFORE THE THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION...THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
THAT OCCURS TO REMAIN IN LIQUID FORM. DUE TO SOME SMALL TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS REGARDING PRECIPITATION
ONSET...DURATION...AND AREAL COVERAGE...DECIDED TO GO WITH ONLY
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA...THE FRONT
COULD EITHER REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE AREA...ECMWF...OR DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTH AS A WEAK WARM FRONT...GFS...DURING THE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. ONLY TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
SPREAD MOISTURE BACK INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE TONIGHT...WITH CIGS
LOWERING. AS OF RIGHT NOW...LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD SEE A GRADIENT IN
THE LOWER CIGS WITH THE LOWEST (IFR/MVFR) IN THE EAST...TRAILING
BACK TO VFR IN THE WEST. WE WILL ALSO SEE PRECIPITATION SPREAD INTO
THE AREA...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY...WITH A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW...LIKELY BECOMING ALL SNOW. THIS WILL RESTRICT VISIBILITIES
BY LATE TONIGHT AS WELL...MAINLY AT KJKL AND KSJS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...KAS






000
FXUS63 KJKL 251121
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
621 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 621 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

O6Z NAM AND GFS ARE NOW IN AND BOTH ARE A LITTLE MORE ROBUST WITH
PRECIPITATION AND BOTH A TAD FARTHER WEST WITH THE EXTENT. IN
FACT...THE NAM SNOWFALL ALGORITHM IS SUGGESTING AS MUCH AS 5 INCHES
OF SNOW COULD FALL OVER FAR SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...THIS IS THE
FIRST RUN SUGGESTING THIS HIGH OF QPF AND WILLING TO CONSIDER IT AN
OUTLIER FOR NOW...BUT THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
FOR POSSIBLE TRENDS TOWARDS THE HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT.
ALREADY SEEING SOME COOLER CLOUD TOPS DEVELOPING ACROSS EAST
TEXAS...SO AS MENTIONED...MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR A FARTHER WEST EXTENT
TO THE PRECIPITATION.

ALSO SOMETHING ELSE TO CONSIDER...DRY AIR MIX DOWN ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON MAY BRING DOWN SOME AWFULLY LOW
DEWPOINTS...WHICH WOULD SET THE STAGE FOR GOOD WET BULB COOLING AS
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN TONIGHT. THUS...IF LOWER DEWPOINTS
MATERIALIZE...THEY MAY HELP DISTINGUISH BETWEEN WHO GETS MORE
SNOW...VERSES MORE RAIN. LOWER DEWPOINTS WOULD ALLOW FOR A FASTER
TRANSITION TO SNOW...AND THUS...MORE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. FOR
NOW...WILLING TO SIT ON THIS AND LET DAY-SHIFT RE-EVALUATE THE NEED
FOR ANY CHANGES. IF MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD COURSE...IT LOOKS LIKE AT
A MINIMUM A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WOULD BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF
THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING
WITH SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR. THIS WILL HOLD THROUGH
THE DAY...PROVIDING A COOLER...BUT STILL RELATIVELY PLEASANT DAY. IN
FACT...WITH THE HELP OF THE SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES IN SOME PLACES
ALREADY IN THE 40S THIS MORNING...WE SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM
SURPASSING THE 50 DEGREE MARK THIS AFTERNOON. WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR JUST OFF THE SURFACE...RAP AND HRRR ARE SUGGESTING
FAIRLY LOW DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY. IT MIGHT BE A STRETCH TO FALL INTO THE TEENS...BUT
CERTAINLY DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE MID 20S WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS WILL
PUT US CLOSE TO THE 25 PERCENT RH`S THIS AFTERNOON. I WOULDN`T BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SPOTS ACTUALLY REACH THIS VALUE...ESPECIALLY
IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT.
MODELS HAVE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER FLORIDA AND
TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. NEARLY ALL MODELS ARE IN
SUPPORT OF MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPING
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST AND EAST KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR IN PLACE...WET BULB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY LOW. ASSUMING WE GET PRECIP RATES THAT
SUPPORT IT...WE SHOULD SEE PRIMARILY SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT SOME RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE FARTHER INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
WHERE PRECIP RATES MAY NOT BE AS HIGH. REGARDLESS...WE SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE ABOVE 2500 FEET...WHERE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE.
LIGHTER AMOUNTS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS UP TO AN INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR AREAS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM INEZ TO HAZARD...TO
BARBOURVILLE. WHILE SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...THE
REST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY MAY NOT SEE MUCH MORE THAN INCREASED CLOUD
COVER. PLAN TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE AN SPS FOR OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
TO ADDRESS THE POTENTIAL SNOWFALL. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER
INTO WEDNESDAY...WENT WITH A PRETTY GOOD GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES
FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH READINGS AROUND 50 IN THE WEST TO LOW AND
MID 30S IN THE EAST. PRECIPITATION WILL DEPART BY MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPORARY BREAK IN PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE MODELS BEGIN THE PERIOD IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH A LARGE
SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EJECTING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THIS INITIAL SYSTEM
WILL BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...SO ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT
SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND NOT VERY HEAVY. A SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL
SPILL INTO THE REGION AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS...WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY
ONLY TOPPING OUT AROUND 40 DEGREES...AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S AND LOWER 30S. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN PROGGED TO
BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND...WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON TAP FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. SATURDAY COULD MARK THE START OF A SIGNIFICANT WARMING
TREND...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. THE
REGION IS EXPECTED TO WARM EVEN MORE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS THE
MERCURY CLIMBS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BOTH
DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FEEL ALMOST
BALMY IF THEY IN FACT ONLY DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S EACH NIGHT.

ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL LIKELY SPILL INTO THE REGION TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD TO ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX WITH RAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. LITTLE IF ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT...AS A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO AND STALLS OUT ACROSS THE AREA. THE
MODELS KEEP THE FRONT IN PLACE...AND THEREFORE THE THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION...THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
THAT OCCURS TO REMAIN IN LIQUID FORM. DUE TO SOME SMALL TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS REGARDING PRECIPITATION
ONSET...DURATION...AND AREAL COVERAGE...DECIDED TO GO WITH ONLY
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA...THE FRONT
COULD EITHER REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE AREA...ECMWF...OR DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTH AS A WEAK WARM FRONT...GFS...DURING THE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. ONLY TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
SPREAD MOISTURE BACK INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE TONIGHT...WITH CIGS
LOWERING. AS OF RIGHT NOW...LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD SEE A GRADIENT IN
THE LOWER CIGS WITH THE LOWEST (IFR/MVFR) IN THE EAST...TRAILING
BACK TO VFR IN THE WEST. WE WILL ALSO SEE PRECIPITATION SPREAD INTO
THE AREA...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY...WITH A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW...LIKELY BECOMING ALL SNOW. THIS WILL RESTRICT VISIBILITIES
BY LATE TONIGHT AS WELL...MAINLY AT KJKL AND KSJS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...KAS







000
FXUS63 KJKL 251121
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
621 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 621 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

O6Z NAM AND GFS ARE NOW IN AND BOTH ARE A LITTLE MORE ROBUST WITH
PRECIPITATION AND BOTH A TAD FARTHER WEST WITH THE EXTENT. IN
FACT...THE NAM SNOWFALL ALGORITHM IS SUGGESTING AS MUCH AS 5 INCHES
OF SNOW COULD FALL OVER FAR SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...THIS IS THE
FIRST RUN SUGGESTING THIS HIGH OF QPF AND WILLING TO CONSIDER IT AN
OUTLIER FOR NOW...BUT THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
FOR POSSIBLE TRENDS TOWARDS THE HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT.
ALREADY SEEING SOME COOLER CLOUD TOPS DEVELOPING ACROSS EAST
TEXAS...SO AS MENTIONED...MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR A FARTHER WEST EXTENT
TO THE PRECIPITATION.

ALSO SOMETHING ELSE TO CONSIDER...DRY AIR MIX DOWN ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON MAY BRING DOWN SOME AWFULLY LOW
DEWPOINTS...WHICH WOULD SET THE STAGE FOR GOOD WET BULB COOLING AS
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN TONIGHT. THUS...IF LOWER DEWPOINTS
MATERIALIZE...THEY MAY HELP DISTINGUISH BETWEEN WHO GETS MORE
SNOW...VERSES MORE RAIN. LOWER DEWPOINTS WOULD ALLOW FOR A FASTER
TRANSITION TO SNOW...AND THUS...MORE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. FOR
NOW...WILLING TO SIT ON THIS AND LET DAY-SHIFT RE-EVALUATE THE NEED
FOR ANY CHANGES. IF MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD COURSE...IT LOOKS LIKE AT
A MINIMUM A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WOULD BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF
THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING
WITH SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR. THIS WILL HOLD THROUGH
THE DAY...PROVIDING A COOLER...BUT STILL RELATIVELY PLEASANT DAY. IN
FACT...WITH THE HELP OF THE SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES IN SOME PLACES
ALREADY IN THE 40S THIS MORNING...WE SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM
SURPASSING THE 50 DEGREE MARK THIS AFTERNOON. WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR JUST OFF THE SURFACE...RAP AND HRRR ARE SUGGESTING
FAIRLY LOW DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY. IT MIGHT BE A STRETCH TO FALL INTO THE TEENS...BUT
CERTAINLY DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE MID 20S WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS WILL
PUT US CLOSE TO THE 25 PERCENT RH`S THIS AFTERNOON. I WOULDN`T BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SPOTS ACTUALLY REACH THIS VALUE...ESPECIALLY
IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT.
MODELS HAVE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER FLORIDA AND
TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. NEARLY ALL MODELS ARE IN
SUPPORT OF MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPING
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST AND EAST KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR IN PLACE...WET BULB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY LOW. ASSUMING WE GET PRECIP RATES THAT
SUPPORT IT...WE SHOULD SEE PRIMARILY SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT SOME RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE FARTHER INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
WHERE PRECIP RATES MAY NOT BE AS HIGH. REGARDLESS...WE SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE ABOVE 2500 FEET...WHERE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE.
LIGHTER AMOUNTS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS UP TO AN INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR AREAS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM INEZ TO HAZARD...TO
BARBOURVILLE. WHILE SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...THE
REST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY MAY NOT SEE MUCH MORE THAN INCREASED CLOUD
COVER. PLAN TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE AN SPS FOR OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
TO ADDRESS THE POTENTIAL SNOWFALL. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER
INTO WEDNESDAY...WENT WITH A PRETTY GOOD GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES
FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH READINGS AROUND 50 IN THE WEST TO LOW AND
MID 30S IN THE EAST. PRECIPITATION WILL DEPART BY MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPORARY BREAK IN PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE MODELS BEGIN THE PERIOD IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH A LARGE
SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EJECTING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THIS INITIAL SYSTEM
WILL BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...SO ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT
SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND NOT VERY HEAVY. A SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL
SPILL INTO THE REGION AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS...WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY
ONLY TOPPING OUT AROUND 40 DEGREES...AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S AND LOWER 30S. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN PROGGED TO
BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND...WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON TAP FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. SATURDAY COULD MARK THE START OF A SIGNIFICANT WARMING
TREND...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. THE
REGION IS EXPECTED TO WARM EVEN MORE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS THE
MERCURY CLIMBS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BOTH
DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FEEL ALMOST
BALMY IF THEY IN FACT ONLY DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S EACH NIGHT.

ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL LIKELY SPILL INTO THE REGION TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD TO ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX WITH RAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. LITTLE IF ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT...AS A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO AND STALLS OUT ACROSS THE AREA. THE
MODELS KEEP THE FRONT IN PLACE...AND THEREFORE THE THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION...THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
THAT OCCURS TO REMAIN IN LIQUID FORM. DUE TO SOME SMALL TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS REGARDING PRECIPITATION
ONSET...DURATION...AND AREAL COVERAGE...DECIDED TO GO WITH ONLY
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA...THE FRONT
COULD EITHER REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE AREA...ECMWF...OR DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTH AS A WEAK WARM FRONT...GFS...DURING THE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. ONLY TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
SPREAD MOISTURE BACK INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE TONIGHT...WITH CIGS
LOWERING. AS OF RIGHT NOW...LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD SEE A GRADIENT IN
THE LOWER CIGS WITH THE LOWEST (IFR/MVFR) IN THE EAST...TRAILING
BACK TO VFR IN THE WEST. WE WILL ALSO SEE PRECIPITATION SPREAD INTO
THE AREA...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY...WITH A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW...LIKELY BECOMING ALL SNOW. THIS WILL RESTRICT VISIBILITIES
BY LATE TONIGHT AS WELL...MAINLY AT KJKL AND KSJS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...KAS








000
FXUS63 KJKL 250810 CCA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
308 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING
WITH SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR. THIS WILL HOLD THROUGH
THE DAY...PROVIDING A COOLER...BUT STILL RELATIVELY PLEASANT DAY. IN
FACT...WITH THE HELP OF THE SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES IN SOME PLACES
ALREADY IN THE 40S THIS MORNING...WE SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM
SURPASSING THE 50 DEGREE MARK THIS AFTERNOON. WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR JUST OFF THE SURFACE...RAP AND HRRR ARE SUGGESTING
FAIRLY LOW DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY. IT MIGHT BE A STRETCH TO FALL INTO THE TEENS...BUT
CERTAINLY DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE MID 20S WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS WILL
PUT US CLOSE TO THE 25 PERCENT RH`S THIS AFTERNOON. I WOULDN`T BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SPOTS ACTUALLY REACH THIS VALUE...ESPECIALLY
IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT.
MODELS HAVE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER FLORIDA AND
TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. NEARLY ALL MODELS ARE IN
SUPPORT OF MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPING
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST AND EAST KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR IN PLACE...WET BULB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY LOW. ASSUMING WE GET PRECIP RATES THAT
SUPPORT IT...WE SHOULD SEE PRIMARILY SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT SOME RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE FARTHER INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
WHERE PRECIP RATES MAY NOT BE AS HIGH. REGARDLESS...WE SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE ABOVE 2500 FEET...WHERE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE.
LIGHTER AMOUNTS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS UP TO AN INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR AREAS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM INEZ TO HAZARD...TO
BARBOURVILLE. WHILE SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...THE
REST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY MAY NOT SEE MUCH MORE THAN INCREASED CLOUD
COVER. PLAN TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE AN SPS FOR OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
TO ADDRESS THE POTENTIAL SNOWFALL. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER
INTO WEDNESDAY...WENT WITH A PRETTY GOOD GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES
FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH READINGS AROUND 50 IN THE WEST TO LOW AND
MID 30S IN THE EAST. PRECIPITATION WILL DEPART BY MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPORARY BREAK IN PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE MODELS BEGIN THE PERIOD IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH A LARGE
SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EJECTING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THIS INITIAL SYSTEM
WILL BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...SO ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT
SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND NOT VERY HEAVY. A SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL
SPILL INTO THE REGION AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS...WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY
ONLY TOPPING OUT AROUND 40 DEGREES...AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S AND LOWER 30S. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN PROGGED TO
BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND...WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON TAP FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. SATURDAY COULD MARK THE START OF A SIGNIFICANT WARMING
TREND...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. THE
REGION IS EXPECTED TO WARM EVEN MORE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS THE
MERCURY CLIMBS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BOTH
DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FEEL ALMOST
BALMY IF THEY IN FACT ONLY DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S EACH NIGHT.

ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL LIKELY SPILL INTO THE REGION TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD TO ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX WITH RAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. LITTLE IF ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT...AS A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO AND STALLS OUT ACROSS THE AREA. THE
MODELS KEEP THE FRONT IN PLACE...AND THEREFORE THE THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION...THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
THAT OCCURS TO REMAIN IN LIQUID FORM. DUE TO SOME SMALL TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS REGARDING PRECIPITATION
ONSET...DURATION...AND AREAL COVERAGE...DECIDED TO GO WITH ONLY
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA...THE FRONT
COULD EITHER REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE AREA...ECMWF...OR DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTH AS A WEAK WARM FRONT...GFS...DURING THE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. ONLY TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETS UP OVERHEAD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...KAS










000
FXUS63 KJKL 250810 CCA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
308 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING
WITH SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR. THIS WILL HOLD THROUGH
THE DAY...PROVIDING A COOLER...BUT STILL RELATIVELY PLEASANT DAY. IN
FACT...WITH THE HELP OF THE SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES IN SOME PLACES
ALREADY IN THE 40S THIS MORNING...WE SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM
SURPASSING THE 50 DEGREE MARK THIS AFTERNOON. WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR JUST OFF THE SURFACE...RAP AND HRRR ARE SUGGESTING
FAIRLY LOW DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY. IT MIGHT BE A STRETCH TO FALL INTO THE TEENS...BUT
CERTAINLY DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE MID 20S WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS WILL
PUT US CLOSE TO THE 25 PERCENT RH`S THIS AFTERNOON. I WOULDN`T BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SPOTS ACTUALLY REACH THIS VALUE...ESPECIALLY
IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT.
MODELS HAVE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER FLORIDA AND
TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. NEARLY ALL MODELS ARE IN
SUPPORT OF MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPING
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST AND EAST KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR IN PLACE...WET BULB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY LOW. ASSUMING WE GET PRECIP RATES THAT
SUPPORT IT...WE SHOULD SEE PRIMARILY SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT SOME RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE FARTHER INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
WHERE PRECIP RATES MAY NOT BE AS HIGH. REGARDLESS...WE SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE ABOVE 2500 FEET...WHERE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE.
LIGHTER AMOUNTS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS UP TO AN INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR AREAS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM INEZ TO HAZARD...TO
BARBOURVILLE. WHILE SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...THE
REST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY MAY NOT SEE MUCH MORE THAN INCREASED CLOUD
COVER. PLAN TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE AN SPS FOR OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
TO ADDRESS THE POTENTIAL SNOWFALL. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER
INTO WEDNESDAY...WENT WITH A PRETTY GOOD GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES
FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH READINGS AROUND 50 IN THE WEST TO LOW AND
MID 30S IN THE EAST. PRECIPITATION WILL DEPART BY MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPORARY BREAK IN PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE MODELS BEGIN THE PERIOD IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH A LARGE
SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EJECTING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THIS INITIAL SYSTEM
WILL BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...SO ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT
SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND NOT VERY HEAVY. A SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL
SPILL INTO THE REGION AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS...WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY
ONLY TOPPING OUT AROUND 40 DEGREES...AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S AND LOWER 30S. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN PROGGED TO
BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND...WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON TAP FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. SATURDAY COULD MARK THE START OF A SIGNIFICANT WARMING
TREND...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. THE
REGION IS EXPECTED TO WARM EVEN MORE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS THE
MERCURY CLIMBS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BOTH
DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FEEL ALMOST
BALMY IF THEY IN FACT ONLY DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S EACH NIGHT.

ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL LIKELY SPILL INTO THE REGION TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD TO ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX WITH RAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. LITTLE IF ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT...AS A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO AND STALLS OUT ACROSS THE AREA. THE
MODELS KEEP THE FRONT IN PLACE...AND THEREFORE THE THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION...THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
THAT OCCURS TO REMAIN IN LIQUID FORM. DUE TO SOME SMALL TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS REGARDING PRECIPITATION
ONSET...DURATION...AND AREAL COVERAGE...DECIDED TO GO WITH ONLY
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA...THE FRONT
COULD EITHER REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE AREA...ECMWF...OR DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTH AS A WEAK WARM FRONT...GFS...DURING THE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. ONLY TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETS UP OVERHEAD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...KAS











000
FXUS63 KJKL 250808
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
308 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING
WITH SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR. THIS WILL HOLD THROUGH
THE DAY...PROVIDING A COOLER...BUT STILL RELATIVELY PLEASANT DAY. IN
FACT...WITH THE HELP OF THE SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES IN SOME PLACES
ALREADY IN THE 40S THIS MORNING...WE SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM
SURPASSING THE 50 DEGREE MARK THIS AFTERNOON. WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR JUST OFF THE SURFACE...RAP AND HRRR ARE SUGGESTING
FAIRLY LOW DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY. IT MIGHT BE A STRETCH TO FALL INTO THE TEENS...BUT
CERTAINLY DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE MID 20S WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS WILL
PUT US CLOSE TO THE 25 PERCENT RH`S THIS AFTERNOON. I WOULDN`T BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SPOTS ACTUALLY REACH THIS VALUE...ESPECIALLY
IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT.
MODELS HAVE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER FLORIDA AND
TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. NEARLY ALL MODELS ARE IN
SUPPORT OF MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPING
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST AND EAST KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR IN PLACE...WET BULB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY LOW. ASSUMING WE GET PRECIP RATES THAT
SUPPORT IT...WE SHOULD SEE PRIMARILY SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT SOME RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE FARTHER INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
WHERE PRECIP RATES MAY NOT BE AS HIGH. REGARDLESS...WE SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE ABOVE 2500 FEET...WHERE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE.
LIGHTER AMOUNTS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS UP TO AN INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR AREAS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM INEZ TO HAZARD...TO
BARBOURVILLE. WHILE SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...THE
REST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY MAY NOT SEE MUCH MORE THAN INCREASED CLOUD
COVER. PLAN TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE AN SPS FOR OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
TO ADDRESS THE POTENTIAL SNOWFALL. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER
INTO WEDNESDAY...WENT WITH A PRETTY GOOD GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES
FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH READINGS AROUND 50 IN THE WEST TO LOW AND
MID 30S IN THE EAST. PRECIPITATION WILL DEPART BY MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPORARY BREAK IN PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE MODELS BEGIN THE PERIOD IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH A LARGE
SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EJECTING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THIS INITIAL SYSTEM
WILL BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...SO ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT
SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND NOT VERY HEAVY. A SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL
SPILL INTO THE REGION AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS...WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY
ONLY TOPPING OUT AROUND 40 DEGREES...AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S AND LOWER 30S. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN PROGGED TO
BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND...WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON TAP FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. SATURDAY COULD MARK THE START OF A SIGNIFICANT WARMING
TREND...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. THE
REGION IS EXPECTED TO WARM EVEN MORE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS THE
MERCURY CLIMBS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BOTH
DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FEEL ALMOST
BALMY IF THEY IN FACT ONLY DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S EACH NIGHT.

ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL LIKELY SPILL INTO THE REGION TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD TO ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX WITH RAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. LITTLE IF ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT...AS A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO AND STALLS OUT ACROSS THE AREA. THE
MODELS KEEP THE FRONT IN PLACE...AND THEREFORE THE THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION...THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY ON MONDAY. DUE SOME SMALL
TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS REGARDING PRECIPITATION
ONSET...DURATION...AND AREAL COVERAGE...DECIDED TO GO WITH ONLY
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA...THE FRONT
COULD EITHER REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE AREA...ECMWF...OR DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTH AS A WEAK WARM FRONT...GFS...DURING THE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. ONLY TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETS UP OVERHEAD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...KAS








000
FXUS63 KJKL 250808
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
308 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING
WITH SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR. THIS WILL HOLD THROUGH
THE DAY...PROVIDING A COOLER...BUT STILL RELATIVELY PLEASANT DAY. IN
FACT...WITH THE HELP OF THE SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES IN SOME PLACES
ALREADY IN THE 40S THIS MORNING...WE SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM
SURPASSING THE 50 DEGREE MARK THIS AFTERNOON. WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR JUST OFF THE SURFACE...RAP AND HRRR ARE SUGGESTING
FAIRLY LOW DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY. IT MIGHT BE A STRETCH TO FALL INTO THE TEENS...BUT
CERTAINLY DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE MID 20S WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS WILL
PUT US CLOSE TO THE 25 PERCENT RH`S THIS AFTERNOON. I WOULDN`T BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SPOTS ACTUALLY REACH THIS VALUE...ESPECIALLY
IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT.
MODELS HAVE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER FLORIDA AND
TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. NEARLY ALL MODELS ARE IN
SUPPORT OF MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPING
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST AND EAST KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR IN PLACE...WET BULB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY LOW. ASSUMING WE GET PRECIP RATES THAT
SUPPORT IT...WE SHOULD SEE PRIMARILY SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT SOME RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE FARTHER INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
WHERE PRECIP RATES MAY NOT BE AS HIGH. REGARDLESS...WE SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE ABOVE 2500 FEET...WHERE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE.
LIGHTER AMOUNTS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS UP TO AN INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR AREAS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM INEZ TO HAZARD...TO
BARBOURVILLE. WHILE SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...THE
REST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY MAY NOT SEE MUCH MORE THAN INCREASED CLOUD
COVER. PLAN TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE AN SPS FOR OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
TO ADDRESS THE POTENTIAL SNOWFALL. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER
INTO WEDNESDAY...WENT WITH A PRETTY GOOD GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES
FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH READINGS AROUND 50 IN THE WEST TO LOW AND
MID 30S IN THE EAST. PRECIPITATION WILL DEPART BY MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPORARY BREAK IN PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE MODELS BEGIN THE PERIOD IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH A LARGE
SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EJECTING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THIS INITIAL SYSTEM
WILL BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...SO ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT
SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND NOT VERY HEAVY. A SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL
SPILL INTO THE REGION AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS...WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY
ONLY TOPPING OUT AROUND 40 DEGREES...AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S AND LOWER 30S. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN PROGGED TO
BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND...WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON TAP FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. SATURDAY COULD MARK THE START OF A SIGNIFICANT WARMING
TREND...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. THE
REGION IS EXPECTED TO WARM EVEN MORE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS THE
MERCURY CLIMBS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BOTH
DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FEEL ALMOST
BALMY IF THEY IN FACT ONLY DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S EACH NIGHT.

ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL LIKELY SPILL INTO THE REGION TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD TO ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX WITH RAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. LITTLE IF ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT...AS A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO AND STALLS OUT ACROSS THE AREA. THE
MODELS KEEP THE FRONT IN PLACE...AND THEREFORE THE THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION...THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY ON MONDAY. DUE SOME SMALL
TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS REGARDING PRECIPITATION
ONSET...DURATION...AND AREAL COVERAGE...DECIDED TO GO WITH ONLY
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA...THE FRONT
COULD EITHER REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE AREA...ECMWF...OR DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTH AS A WEAK WARM FRONT...GFS...DURING THE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. ONLY TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETS UP OVERHEAD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...KAS







000
FXUS63 KJKL 250533
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1233 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1232 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

UPDATED TO SLOW DOWN THE TEMPERATURE FALL OVERNIGHT AS WINDS HAVE
STAYED UP A BIT ALLOWING FOR A SLOWER OVERALL DECREASE. IN
FACT...TEMPERATURES MAY NOT REACH THE EXPECTED LOWS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA GIVEN THE ADDED WIND. THUS...HAVE UPDATED TO INCREASE LOWS A
TAD. ALSO UPDATED SKY COVER TO REFLECT LESS IN THE WEST AND KEEPING
SOME PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE EAST WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING NORTHWARD. UPDATED FORECAST HAS BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 944 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER
MOVING INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY
STATIONARY LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS
BRINGING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE BULK OF THIS
CLOUD COVER IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY AND
ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO HAVE THE BULK OF THE CLOUD COVER EXIT THE
AREA TO THE NORTHEAST BY THE MORNING. THE OTHER CONCERN WAS THE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS REMAIN QUITE WARM AND THE COOLER
AIR IS SLOW TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. IN FACT SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE STILL OCCURRING. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO HIGHLIGHT
THESE CHANGES. A NEW ZFP HAS BEEN ISSUED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUE TO TRACK
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. WITH THIS A LESSENING GRADIENT IS
OCCURRING AND WINDS HAVE REALLY LESSENED ACROSS THE AREA. THOUGH A FEW
20 TO 25 MPH GUSTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...HAVE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE
WIND ADVISORY AN HOUR EARLY. THIS IS ALSO LINING UP WITH
COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AS WELL. OTHERWISE...DROPPING
TEMPS THIS EVENING WITH COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
AND THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS IN CHECK. WILL LET THE OTHER
PARAMETERS OF THE FORECAST RIDE BUT WILL SEND OUT A NEW ZFP TO TAKE
OUT THE NPW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST
AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES. FROM THIS...A STRONG...BUT NOW DRY...COLD
FRONT IS PRESSING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE GUSTING ROUTINELY INTO THE 35 TO 45 MPH
RANGE WITH A FEW GUSTS EXCEEDING 50 MPH. THE OFFICE HAS RECEIVED
NUMEROUS REPORTS OF TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES DUE TO THE WINDS.
THESE WINDS HAVE ALSO SUPPORTED TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND
THEY REMAIN THERE IN FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...ON THE OTHER
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY THE WINDS REMAIN SOUTHWEST BUT ARE NOT QUITE AS
STRONG AND ARE BRINGING IN A DIFFERENT AIR MASS. AS SUCH...
TEMPERATURES DROPPING THROUGH THE 50S ARE NOW REACHING THE WESTERN
EXTENT OF THE CWA ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS HEADED FOR THE 30S. THE WINDS
REMAIN AT ADVISORY LEVEL IN THE EAST BUT ARE NOT QUITE THERE IN THE
WEST. AS THEY FURTHER SETTLE WE WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO DROP THE
ADVISORY EARLY. FOR NOW...THOUGH...WILL CONTINUE TO LET IT RIDE FOR
THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGH 00Z.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE DEEP...AND FULL-
LATITUDE...TROUGH CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...A SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THE LARGER TROUGH WILL
REMAIN STRETCHED INTO SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS AND IT IS THIS SECTION
THAT TIGHTENS UP AND MOVES EAST LATER TUESDAY. THE SOUTHERN
ENERGY...IN CONJUNCTION WITH SOME MOVING THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AND ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY ON TUESDAY NIGHT. OF NOTE ALSO...A CLUSTER OF ENERGY WILL BE
RIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT DAWN WEDNESDAY. WITH
THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED THE NAM12 AND HRRR INITIALLY AND
THEN A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND NAM12 FOR WX DETAILS INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE WINDS SETTLING DOWN THIS EVENING FROM
WEST TO EAST AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES. IT WILL ALSO MEAN A COOLER
EVENING...BUT NOWHERE NEAR AS COLD AS IT HAS BEEN OF LATE. TUESDAY
WILL CERTAINLY BE A COOLER DAY BUT A QUIETER ONE AS WE WILL BE
BETWEEN SYSTEMS. A DEVELOPING SFC LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL
START TO SPREAD HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST BY
EVENING. LOOK FOR THESE TO THICKEN AND LOWER WITH TIME THAT NIGHT AS
THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA IS BRUSHED BY THE PCPN SHIELD FROM
THIS NASCENT COASTAL SYSTEM. HAVE CONTINUED THE THREAT OF RAIN OR
SNOW PRIMARILY IN THE COUNTIES BORDERING VIRGINIA...BUT NOT
ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS EXCEPT PERHAPS A TOUCH
OF IT JUST ON THE PEAK OF BLACK MOUNTAIN.

USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR T/TD/WINDS THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME MINOR
TERRAIN BASED ADJUSTMENTS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT TO THE LOWS. AS
FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET NUMBERS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND DRY OTHERWISE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

THERE WILL BE A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BEGINNING
THE PERIOD AND THE FRONTOGENESIS IS AIDED BY A BROAD TROUGH/EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWING THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S. THOROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NE ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE
UPPER PLAINS AND DROP SE INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD EAST LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. UPPER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE ZONAL
WITH SURFACE FRONT DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY
GOING INTO SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER... GIVEN SYNOPTIC SETUP LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST COULD BRING SLIGHT TO CHANCES MAINLY RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION
EARLY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTH AND EAST WHILE AFOREMENTIONED
DISTURBANCE DROPS SE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH MODELS SO DID OPT TO BRING POPS UP A BIT FOR
THIS SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING SLIGHT TO CHANCE
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN KY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY MUCH OF
THE REGION WILL WARM UP SO EXPECT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
TRANSITION TO RAIN SHOWERS BEFORE EXITING THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY
ON THURSDAY. AFTER THIS IT IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET AND MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS TIL WE GET TO THE SATURDAY TIME FRAME. DURING THIS TIME
MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING/DEVELOPMENT OF NEXT
SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW THINKING WILL ONLY GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN
SHOWERS SATURDAY...THEN TRANSITION TO SLIGHT/CHANCE RAINS SHOWERS AS
FRONT SLOW PROGRESSES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION GOING INTO SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETS UP OVERHEAD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...KAS







000
FXUS63 KJKL 250533
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1233 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1232 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

UPDATED TO SLOW DOWN THE TEMPERATURE FALL OVERNIGHT AS WINDS HAVE
STAYED UP A BIT ALLOWING FOR A SLOWER OVERALL DECREASE. IN
FACT...TEMPERATURES MAY NOT REACH THE EXPECTED LOWS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA GIVEN THE ADDED WIND. THUS...HAVE UPDATED TO INCREASE LOWS A
TAD. ALSO UPDATED SKY COVER TO REFLECT LESS IN THE WEST AND KEEPING
SOME PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE EAST WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING NORTHWARD. UPDATED FORECAST HAS BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 944 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER
MOVING INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY
STATIONARY LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS
BRINGING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE BULK OF THIS
CLOUD COVER IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY AND
ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO HAVE THE BULK OF THE CLOUD COVER EXIT THE
AREA TO THE NORTHEAST BY THE MORNING. THE OTHER CONCERN WAS THE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS REMAIN QUITE WARM AND THE COOLER
AIR IS SLOW TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. IN FACT SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE STILL OCCURRING. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO HIGHLIGHT
THESE CHANGES. A NEW ZFP HAS BEEN ISSUED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUE TO TRACK
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. WITH THIS A LESSENING GRADIENT IS
OCCURRING AND WINDS HAVE REALLY LESSENED ACROSS THE AREA. THOUGH A FEW
20 TO 25 MPH GUSTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...HAVE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE
WIND ADVISORY AN HOUR EARLY. THIS IS ALSO LINING UP WITH
COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AS WELL. OTHERWISE...DROPPING
TEMPS THIS EVENING WITH COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
AND THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS IN CHECK. WILL LET THE OTHER
PARAMETERS OF THE FORECAST RIDE BUT WILL SEND OUT A NEW ZFP TO TAKE
OUT THE NPW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST
AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES. FROM THIS...A STRONG...BUT NOW DRY...COLD
FRONT IS PRESSING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE GUSTING ROUTINELY INTO THE 35 TO 45 MPH
RANGE WITH A FEW GUSTS EXCEEDING 50 MPH. THE OFFICE HAS RECEIVED
NUMEROUS REPORTS OF TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES DUE TO THE WINDS.
THESE WINDS HAVE ALSO SUPPORTED TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND
THEY REMAIN THERE IN FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...ON THE OTHER
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY THE WINDS REMAIN SOUTHWEST BUT ARE NOT QUITE AS
STRONG AND ARE BRINGING IN A DIFFERENT AIR MASS. AS SUCH...
TEMPERATURES DROPPING THROUGH THE 50S ARE NOW REACHING THE WESTERN
EXTENT OF THE CWA ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS HEADED FOR THE 30S. THE WINDS
REMAIN AT ADVISORY LEVEL IN THE EAST BUT ARE NOT QUITE THERE IN THE
WEST. AS THEY FURTHER SETTLE WE WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO DROP THE
ADVISORY EARLY. FOR NOW...THOUGH...WILL CONTINUE TO LET IT RIDE FOR
THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGH 00Z.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE DEEP...AND FULL-
LATITUDE...TROUGH CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...A SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THE LARGER TROUGH WILL
REMAIN STRETCHED INTO SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS AND IT IS THIS SECTION
THAT TIGHTENS UP AND MOVES EAST LATER TUESDAY. THE SOUTHERN
ENERGY...IN CONJUNCTION WITH SOME MOVING THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AND ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY ON TUESDAY NIGHT. OF NOTE ALSO...A CLUSTER OF ENERGY WILL BE
RIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT DAWN WEDNESDAY. WITH
THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED THE NAM12 AND HRRR INITIALLY AND
THEN A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND NAM12 FOR WX DETAILS INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE WINDS SETTLING DOWN THIS EVENING FROM
WEST TO EAST AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES. IT WILL ALSO MEAN A COOLER
EVENING...BUT NOWHERE NEAR AS COLD AS IT HAS BEEN OF LATE. TUESDAY
WILL CERTAINLY BE A COOLER DAY BUT A QUIETER ONE AS WE WILL BE
BETWEEN SYSTEMS. A DEVELOPING SFC LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL
START TO SPREAD HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST BY
EVENING. LOOK FOR THESE TO THICKEN AND LOWER WITH TIME THAT NIGHT AS
THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA IS BRUSHED BY THE PCPN SHIELD FROM
THIS NASCENT COASTAL SYSTEM. HAVE CONTINUED THE THREAT OF RAIN OR
SNOW PRIMARILY IN THE COUNTIES BORDERING VIRGINIA...BUT NOT
ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS EXCEPT PERHAPS A TOUCH
OF IT JUST ON THE PEAK OF BLACK MOUNTAIN.

USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR T/TD/WINDS THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME MINOR
TERRAIN BASED ADJUSTMENTS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT TO THE LOWS. AS
FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET NUMBERS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND DRY OTHERWISE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

THERE WILL BE A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BEGINNING
THE PERIOD AND THE FRONTOGENESIS IS AIDED BY A BROAD TROUGH/EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWING THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S. THOROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NE ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE
UPPER PLAINS AND DROP SE INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD EAST LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. UPPER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE ZONAL
WITH SURFACE FRONT DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY
GOING INTO SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER... GIVEN SYNOPTIC SETUP LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST COULD BRING SLIGHT TO CHANCES MAINLY RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION
EARLY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTH AND EAST WHILE AFOREMENTIONED
DISTURBANCE DROPS SE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH MODELS SO DID OPT TO BRING POPS UP A BIT FOR
THIS SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING SLIGHT TO CHANCE
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN KY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY MUCH OF
THE REGION WILL WARM UP SO EXPECT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
TRANSITION TO RAIN SHOWERS BEFORE EXITING THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY
ON THURSDAY. AFTER THIS IT IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET AND MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS TIL WE GET TO THE SATURDAY TIME FRAME. DURING THIS TIME
MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING/DEVELOPMENT OF NEXT
SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW THINKING WILL ONLY GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN
SHOWERS SATURDAY...THEN TRANSITION TO SLIGHT/CHANCE RAINS SHOWERS AS
FRONT SLOW PROGRESSES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION GOING INTO SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETS UP OVERHEAD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...KAS








000
FXUS63 KJKL 250245
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
945 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER
MOVING INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY
STATIONARY LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS
BRINGING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE BULK OF THIS
CLOUD COVER IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY AND
ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO HAVE THE BULK OF THE CLOUD COVER EXIT THE
AREA TO THE NORTHEAST BY THE MORNING. THE OTHER CONCERN WAS THE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS REMAIN QUITE WARM AND THE COOLER
AIR IS SLOW TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. IN FACT SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE STILL OCCURRING. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO HIGHLIGHT
THESE CHANGES. A NEW ZFP HAS BEEN ISSUED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUE TO TRACK
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. WITH THIS A LESSENING GRADIENT IS
OCCURRING AND WINDS HAVE REALLY LESSENED ACROSS THE AREA. THOUGH A FEW
20 TO 25 MPH GUSTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...HAVE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE
WIND ADVISORY AN HOUR EARLY. THIS IS ALSO LINING UP WITH
COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AS WELL. OTHERWISE...DROPPING
TEMPS THIS EVENING WITH COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
AND THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS IN CHECK. WILL LET THE OTHER
PARAMETERS OF THE FORECAST RIDE BUT WILL SEND OUT A NEW ZFP TO TAKE
OUT THE NPW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST
AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES. FROM THIS...A STRONG...BUT NOW DRY...COLD
FRONT IS PRESSING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE GUSTING ROUTINELY INTO THE 35 TO 45 MPH
RANGE WITH A FEW GUSTS EXCEEDING 50 MPH. THE OFFICE HAS RECEIVED
NUMEROUS REPORTS OF TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES DUE TO THE WINDS.
THESE WINDS HAVE ALSO SUPPORTED TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND
THEY REMAIN THERE IN FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...ON THE OTHER
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY THE WINDS REMAIN SOUTHWEST BUT ARE NOT QUITE AS
STRONG AND ARE BRINGING IN A DIFFERENT AIR MASS. AS SUCH...
TEMPERATURES DROPPING THROUGH THE 50S ARE NOW REACHING THE WESTERN
EXTENT OF THE CWA ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS HEADED FOR THE 30S. THE WINDS
REMAIN AT ADVISORY LEVEL IN THE EAST BUT ARE NOT QUITE THERE IN THE
WEST. AS THEY FURTHER SETTLE WE WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO DROP THE
ADVISORY EARLY. FOR NOW...THOUGH...WILL CONTINUE TO LET IT RIDE FOR
THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGH 00Z.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE DEEP...AND FULL-
LATITUDE...TROUGH CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...A SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THE LARGER TROUGH WILL
REMAIN STRETCHED INTO SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS AND IT IS THIS SECTION
THAT TIGHTENS UP AND MOVES EAST LATER TUESDAY. THE SOUTHERN
ENERGY...IN CONJUNCTION WITH SOME MOVING THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AND ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY ON TUESDAY NIGHT. OF NOTE ALSO...A CLUSTER OF ENERGY WILL BE
RIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT DAWN WEDNESDAY. WITH
THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED THE NAM12 AND HRRR INITIALLY AND
THEN A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND NAM12 FOR WX DETAILS INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE WINDS SETTLING DOWN THIS EVENING FROM
WEST TO EAST AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES. IT WILL ALSO MEAN A COOLER
EVENING...BUT NOWHERE NEAR AS COLD AS IT HAS BEEN OF LATE. TUESDAY
WILL CERTAINLY BE A COOLER DAY BUT A QUIETER ONE AS WE WILL BE
BETWEEN SYSTEMS. A DEVELOPING SFC LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL
START TO SPREAD HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST BY
EVENING. LOOK FOR THESE TO THICKEN AND LOWER WITH TIME THAT NIGHT AS
THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA IS BRUSHED BY THE PCPN SHIELD FROM
THIS NASCENT COASTAL SYSTEM. HAVE CONTINUED THE THREAT OF RAIN OR
SNOW PRIMARILY IN THE COUNTIES BORDERING VIRGINIA...BUT NOT
ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS EXCEPT PERHAPS A TOUCH
OF IT JUST ON THE PEAK OF BLACK MOUNTAIN.

USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR T/TD/WINDS THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME MINOR
TERRAIN BASED ADJUSTMENTS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT TO THE LOWS. AS
FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET NUMBERS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND DRY OTHERWISE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

THERE WILL BE A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BEGINNING
THE PERIOD AND THE FRONTOGENESIS IS AIDED BY A BROAD TROUGH/EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWING THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S. THOROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NE ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE
UPPER PLAINS AND DROP SE INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD EAST LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. UPPER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE ZONAL
WITH SURFACE FRONT DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY
GOING INTO SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER... GIVEN SYNOPTIC SETUP LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST COULD BRING SLIGHT TO CHANCES MAINLY RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION
EARLY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTH AND EAST WHILE AFOREMENTIONED
DISTURBANCE DROPS SE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH MODELS SO DID OPT TO BRING POPS UP A BIT FOR
THIS SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING SLIGHT TO CHANCE
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN KY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY MUCH OF
THE REGION WILL WARM UP SO EXPECT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
TRANSITION TO RAIN SHOWERS BEFORE EXITING THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY
ON THURSDAY. AFTER THIS IT IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET AND MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS TIL WE GET TO THE SATURDAY TIME FRAME. DURING THIS TIME
MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING/DEVELOPMENT OF NEXT
SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW THINKING WILL ONLY GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN
SHOWERS SATURDAY...THEN TRANSITION TO SLIGHT/CHANCE RAINS SHOWERS AS
FRONT SLOW PROGRESSES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION GOING INTO SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 651 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

THE COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT THE STRONG WINDS HAS MOVED OFF TO THE
EAST AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE MOVING INTO THE AREA. TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY THE CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR. LIGHT NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT AND THE DAY ON TUESDAY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER







000
FXUS63 KJKL 250245
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
945 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER
MOVING INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY
STATIONARY LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS
BRINGING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE BULK OF THIS
CLOUD COVER IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY AND
ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO HAVE THE BULK OF THE CLOUD COVER EXIT THE
AREA TO THE NORTHEAST BY THE MORNING. THE OTHER CONCERN WAS THE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS REMAIN QUITE WARM AND THE COOLER
AIR IS SLOW TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. IN FACT SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE STILL OCCURRING. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO HIGHLIGHT
THESE CHANGES. A NEW ZFP HAS BEEN ISSUED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUE TO TRACK
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. WITH THIS A LESSENING GRADIENT IS
OCCURRING AND WINDS HAVE REALLY LESSENED ACROSS THE AREA. THOUGH A FEW
20 TO 25 MPH GUSTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...HAVE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE
WIND ADVISORY AN HOUR EARLY. THIS IS ALSO LINING UP WITH
COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AS WELL. OTHERWISE...DROPPING
TEMPS THIS EVENING WITH COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
AND THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS IN CHECK. WILL LET THE OTHER
PARAMETERS OF THE FORECAST RIDE BUT WILL SEND OUT A NEW ZFP TO TAKE
OUT THE NPW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST
AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES. FROM THIS...A STRONG...BUT NOW DRY...COLD
FRONT IS PRESSING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE GUSTING ROUTINELY INTO THE 35 TO 45 MPH
RANGE WITH A FEW GUSTS EXCEEDING 50 MPH. THE OFFICE HAS RECEIVED
NUMEROUS REPORTS OF TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES DUE TO THE WINDS.
THESE WINDS HAVE ALSO SUPPORTED TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND
THEY REMAIN THERE IN FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...ON THE OTHER
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY THE WINDS REMAIN SOUTHWEST BUT ARE NOT QUITE AS
STRONG AND ARE BRINGING IN A DIFFERENT AIR MASS. AS SUCH...
TEMPERATURES DROPPING THROUGH THE 50S ARE NOW REACHING THE WESTERN
EXTENT OF THE CWA ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS HEADED FOR THE 30S. THE WINDS
REMAIN AT ADVISORY LEVEL IN THE EAST BUT ARE NOT QUITE THERE IN THE
WEST. AS THEY FURTHER SETTLE WE WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO DROP THE
ADVISORY EARLY. FOR NOW...THOUGH...WILL CONTINUE TO LET IT RIDE FOR
THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGH 00Z.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE DEEP...AND FULL-
LATITUDE...TROUGH CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...A SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THE LARGER TROUGH WILL
REMAIN STRETCHED INTO SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS AND IT IS THIS SECTION
THAT TIGHTENS UP AND MOVES EAST LATER TUESDAY. THE SOUTHERN
ENERGY...IN CONJUNCTION WITH SOME MOVING THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AND ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY ON TUESDAY NIGHT. OF NOTE ALSO...A CLUSTER OF ENERGY WILL BE
RIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT DAWN WEDNESDAY. WITH
THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED THE NAM12 AND HRRR INITIALLY AND
THEN A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND NAM12 FOR WX DETAILS INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE WINDS SETTLING DOWN THIS EVENING FROM
WEST TO EAST AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES. IT WILL ALSO MEAN A COOLER
EVENING...BUT NOWHERE NEAR AS COLD AS IT HAS BEEN OF LATE. TUESDAY
WILL CERTAINLY BE A COOLER DAY BUT A QUIETER ONE AS WE WILL BE
BETWEEN SYSTEMS. A DEVELOPING SFC LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL
START TO SPREAD HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST BY
EVENING. LOOK FOR THESE TO THICKEN AND LOWER WITH TIME THAT NIGHT AS
THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA IS BRUSHED BY THE PCPN SHIELD FROM
THIS NASCENT COASTAL SYSTEM. HAVE CONTINUED THE THREAT OF RAIN OR
SNOW PRIMARILY IN THE COUNTIES BORDERING VIRGINIA...BUT NOT
ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS EXCEPT PERHAPS A TOUCH
OF IT JUST ON THE PEAK OF BLACK MOUNTAIN.

USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR T/TD/WINDS THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME MINOR
TERRAIN BASED ADJUSTMENTS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT TO THE LOWS. AS
FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET NUMBERS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND DRY OTHERWISE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

THERE WILL BE A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BEGINNING
THE PERIOD AND THE FRONTOGENESIS IS AIDED BY A BROAD TROUGH/EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWING THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S. THOROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NE ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE
UPPER PLAINS AND DROP SE INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD EAST LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. UPPER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE ZONAL
WITH SURFACE FRONT DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY
GOING INTO SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER... GIVEN SYNOPTIC SETUP LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST COULD BRING SLIGHT TO CHANCES MAINLY RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION
EARLY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTH AND EAST WHILE AFOREMENTIONED
DISTURBANCE DROPS SE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH MODELS SO DID OPT TO BRING POPS UP A BIT FOR
THIS SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING SLIGHT TO CHANCE
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN KY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY MUCH OF
THE REGION WILL WARM UP SO EXPECT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
TRANSITION TO RAIN SHOWERS BEFORE EXITING THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY
ON THURSDAY. AFTER THIS IT IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET AND MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS TIL WE GET TO THE SATURDAY TIME FRAME. DURING THIS TIME
MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING/DEVELOPMENT OF NEXT
SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW THINKING WILL ONLY GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN
SHOWERS SATURDAY...THEN TRANSITION TO SLIGHT/CHANCE RAINS SHOWERS AS
FRONT SLOW PROGRESSES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION GOING INTO SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 651 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

THE COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT THE STRONG WINDS HAS MOVED OFF TO THE
EAST AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE MOVING INTO THE AREA. TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY THE CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR. LIGHT NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT AND THE DAY ON TUESDAY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER








000
FXUS63 KJKL 242352
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
652 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 651 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUE TO TRACK
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. WITH THIS A LESSENING GRADIENT IS
OCCURRING AND WINDS HAVE REALLY LESSENED ACROSS THE AREA. THOUGH A FEW
20 TO 25 MPH GUSTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...HAVE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE
WIND ADVISORY AN HOUR EARLY. THIS IS ALSO LINING UP WITH
COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AS WELL. OTHERWISE...DROPPING
TEMPS THIS EVENING WITH COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
AND THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS IN CHECK. WILL LET THE OTHER
PARAMETERS OF THE FORECAST RIDE BUT WILL SEND OUT A NEW ZFP TO TAKE
OUT THE NPW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST
AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES. FROM THIS...A STRONG...BUT NOW DRY...COLD
FRONT IS PRESSING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE GUSTING ROUTINELY INTO THE 35 TO 45 MPH
RANGE WITH A FEW GUSTS EXCEEDING 50 MPH. THE OFFICE HAS RECEIVED
NUMEROUS REPORTS OF TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES DUE TO THE WINDS.
THESE WINDS HAVE ALSO SUPPORTED TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND
THEY REMAIN THERE IN FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...ON THE OTHER
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY THE WINDS REMAIN SOUTHWEST BUT ARE NOT QUITE AS
STRONG AND ARE BRINGING IN A DIFFERENT AIR MASS. AS SUCH...
TEMPERATURES DROPPING THROUGH THE 50S ARE NOW REACHING THE WESTERN
EXTENT OF THE CWA ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS HEADED FOR THE 30S. THE WINDS
REMAIN AT ADVISORY LEVEL IN THE EAST BUT ARE NOT QUITE THERE IN THE
WEST. AS THEY FURTHER SETTLE WE WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO DROP THE
ADVISORY EARLY. FOR NOW...THOUGH...WILL CONTINUE TO LET IT RIDE FOR
THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGH 00Z.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE DEEP...AND FULL-
LATITUDE...TROUGH CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...A SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THE LARGER TROUGH WILL
REMAIN STRETCHED INTO SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS AND IT IS THIS SECTION
THAT TIGHTENS UP AND MOVES EAST LATER TUESDAY. THE SOUTHERN
ENERGY...IN CONJUNCTION WITH SOME MOVING THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AND ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY ON TUESDAY NIGHT. OF NOTE ALSO...A CLUSTER OF ENERGY WILL BE
RIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT DAWN WEDNESDAY. WITH
THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED THE NAM12 AND HRRR INITIALLY AND
THEN A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND NAM12 FOR WX DETAILS INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE WINDS SETTLING DOWN THIS EVENING FROM
WEST TO EAST AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES. IT WILL ALSO MEAN A COOLER
EVENING...BUT NOWHERE NEAR AS COLD AS IT HAS BEEN OF LATE. TUESDAY
WILL CERTAINLY BE A COOLER DAY BUT A QUIETER ONE AS WE WILL BE
BETWEEN SYSTEMS. A DEVELOPING SFC LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL
START TO SPREAD HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST BY
EVENING. LOOK FOR THESE TO THICKEN AND LOWER WITH TIME THAT NIGHT AS
THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA IS BRUSHED BY THE PCPN SHIELD FROM
THIS NASCENT COASTAL SYSTEM. HAVE CONTINUED THE THREAT OF RAIN OR
SNOW PRIMARILY IN THE COUNTIES BORDERING VIRGINIA...BUT NOT
ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS EXCEPT PERHAPS A TOUCH
OF IT JUST ON THE PEAK OF BLACK MOUNTAIN.

USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR T/TD/WINDS THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME MINOR
TERRAIN BASED ADJUSTMENTS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT TO THE LOWS. AS
FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET NUMBERS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND DRY OTHERWISE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

THERE WILL BE A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BEGINNING
THE PERIOD AND THE FRONTOGENESIS IS AIDED BY A BROAD TROUGH/EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWING THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S. THOROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NE ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE
UPPER PLAINS AND DROP SE INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD EAST LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. UPPER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE ZONAL
WITH SURFACE FRONT DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY
GOING INTO SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER... GIVEN SYNOPTIC SETUP LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST COULD BRING SLIGHT TO CHANCES MAINLY RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION
EARLY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTH AND EAST WHILE AFOREMENTIONED
DISTURBANCE DROPS SE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH MODELS SO DID OPT TO BRING POPS UP A BIT FOR
THIS SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING SLIGHT TO CHANCE
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN KY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY MUCH OF
THE REGION WILL WARM UP SO EXPECT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
TRANSITION TO RAIN SHOWERS BEFORE EXITING THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY
ON THURSDAY. AFTER THIS IT IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET AND MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS TIL WE GET TO THE SATURDAY TIME FRAME. DURING THIS TIME
MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING/DEVELOPMENT OF NEXT
SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW THINKING WILL ONLY GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN
SHOWERS SATURDAY...THEN TRANSITION TO SLIGHT/CHANCE RAINS SHOWERS AS
FRONT SLOW PROGRESSES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION GOING INTO SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 651 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

THE COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT THE STRONG WINDS HAS MOVED OFF TO THE
EAST AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE MOVING INTO THE AREA. TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY THE CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR. LIGHT NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT AND THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER








000
FXUS63 KJKL 242034
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
334 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST
AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES. FROM THIS...A STRONG...BUT NOW DRY...COLD
FRONT IS PRESSING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE GUSTING ROUTINELY INTO THE 35 TO 45 MPH
RANGE WITH A FEW GUSTS EXCEEDING 50 MPH. THE OFFICE HAS RECEIVED
NUMEROUS REPORTS OF TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES DUE TO THE WINDS.
THESE WINDS HAVE ALSO SUPPORTED TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND
THEY REMAIN THERE IN FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...ON THE OTHER
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY THE WINDS REMAIN SOUTHWEST BUT ARE NOT QUITE AS
STRONG AND ARE BRINGING IN A DIFFERENT AIR MASS. AS SUCH...
TEMPERATURES DROPPING THROUGH THE 50S ARE NOW REACHING THE WESTERN
EXTENT OF THE CWA ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS HEADED FOR THE 30S. THE WINDS
REMAIN AT ADVISORY LEVEL IN THE EAST BUT ARE NOT QUITE THERE IN THE
WEST. AS THEY FURTHER SETTLE WE WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO DROP THE
ADVISORY EARLY. FOR NOW...THOUGH...WILL CONTINUE TO LET IT RIDE FOR
THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGH 00Z.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE DEEP...AND FULL-
LATITUDE...TROUGH CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...A SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THE LARGER TROUGH WILL
REMAIN STRETCHED INTO SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS AND IT IS THIS SECTION
THAT TIGHTENS UP AND MOVES EAST LATER TUESDAY. THE SOUTHERN
ENERGY...IN CONJUNCTION WITH SOME MOVING THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AND ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY ON TUESDAY NIGHT. OF NOTE ALSO...A CLUSTER OF ENERGY WILL BE
RIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT DAWN WEDNESDAY. WITH
THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED THE NAM12 AND HRRR INITIALLY AND
THEN A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND NAM12 FOR WX DETAILS INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE WINDS SETTLING DOWN THIS EVENING FROM
WEST TO EAST AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES. IT WILL ALSO MEAN A COOLER
EVENING...BUT NOWHERE NEAR AS COLD AS IT HAS BEEN OF LATE. TUESDAY
WILL CERTAINLY BE A COOLER DAY BUT A QUIETER ONE AS WE WILL BE
BETWEEN SYSTEMS. A DEVELOPING SFC LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL
START TO SPREAD HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST BY
EVENING. LOOK FOR THESE TO THICKEN AND LOWER WITH TIME THAT NIGHT AS
THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA IS BRUSHED BY THE PCPN SHIELD FROM
THIS NASCENT COASTAL SYSTEM. HAVE CONTINUED THE THREAT OF RAIN OR
SNOW PRIMARILY IN THE COUNTIES BORDERING VIRGINIA...BUT NOT
ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS EXCEPT PERHAPS A TOUCH
OF IT JUST ON THE PEAK OF BLACK MOUNTAIN.

USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR T/TD/WINDS THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME MINOR
TERRAIN BASED ADJUSTMENTS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT TO THE LOWS. AS
FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET NUMBERS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND DRY OTHERWISE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

THERE WILL BE A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BEGINNING
THE PERIOD AND THE FRONTOGENESIS IS AIDED BY A BROAD TROUGH/EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWING THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S. THOROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NE ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE
UPPER PLAINS AND DROP SE INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD EAST LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. UPPER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE ZONAL
WITH SURFACE FRONT DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY
GOING INTO SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER... GIVEN SYNOPTIC SETUP LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST COULD BRING SLIGHT TO CHANCES MAINLY RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION
EARLY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTH AND EAST WHILE AFOREMENTIONED
DISTURBANCE DROPS SE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH MODELS SO DID OPT TO BRING POPS UP A BIT FOR
THIS SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING SLIGHT TO CHANCE
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN KY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY MUCH OF
THE REGION WILL WARM UP SO EXPECT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
TRANSITION TO RAIN SHOWERS BEFORE EXITING THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY
ON THURSDAY. AFTER THIS IT IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET AND MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS TIL WE GET TO THE SATURDAY TIME FRAME. DURING THIS TIME
MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING/DEVELOPMENT OF NEXT
SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW THINKING WILL ONLY GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN
SHOWERS SATURDAY...THEN TRANSITION TO SLIGHT/CHANCE RAINS SHOWERS AS
FRONT SLOW PROGRESSES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION GOING INTO SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 105 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

A STRONG...BUT MOSTLY DRY...COLD FRONT IS CROSSING THROUGH EASTERN
KENTUCKY. FROM THIS...LITTLE MORE THAN A SPRINKLE WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. MID LEVEL CIGS WILL
EVENTUALLY BREAK UP BY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT NOT BEFORE A FEW MVFR
CIGS DRIFT THROUGH THE NORTHERN SITES...POST FRONTAL. LATE TONIGHT
AND THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY THE SKIES WILL BE VFR. THE MAIN AVIATION
IMPACT WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS ARE OCCASIONALLY REACHING 40 KNOTS IN
PLACES THIS AFTERNOON WITH THIS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST
SEVERAL MORE HOURS. WHILE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH INTO THE
EVENING...FOLLOWING FROPA...THEY COULD REMAIN GUSTY IN SOME PLACES
THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE INTO THE DAY
TUESDAY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GREIF










000
FXUS63 KJKL 241805 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
105 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS TO FINE TUNE THE WARM TEMPERATURES
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND TO TAKE DOWN THE POP COVERAGE. WINDS
REMAIN STRONG...THOUGH...EVEN WITH THE SPRINKLES AS EVIDENCED BY THE
RECENT 53 MPH FROM THE QUICKSAND MESONET. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE
NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1025 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

15Z SFC FORECAST ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. THE STRENGTH OF THIS LOW IS MAKING FOR A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS
SUSTAINED AT 15 TO 25 KTS AND GUSTS TO 40 KTS THROUGHOUT EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. THIS LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA
AROUND MIDDAY WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A POTENTIAL FOR A
STRAY THUNDERSTORM. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BEEF UP THE POPS
RIGHT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND INTRODUCED THE POTENTIAL FOR A
LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO...MAINLY IN THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA
WHERE THERE WILL BE A BIT MORE INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT. ALSO KEPT
THE IDEA OF SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST. IN ADDITION...THE SHOWERS ARE
CAPABLE OF BRINGING DOWN EVEN HIGHER WIND GUSTS AS THEY PASS. THERE
IS A WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 7 PM.
CURRENTLY TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING IN THE MID 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH SOME ROOM TO GO UP A COUPLE MORE DEGREES OR SO BEFORE THE CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT BRING THEM BACK DOWN...FOLLOWED BY CAA
FROM WEST TO EAST DROPPING TEMPS MORE DRAMATICALLY POST FRONTAL LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS AND ZFP WITH THE HWO TO FOLLOW
TO ADD THE THUNDERS CHANCES. THE FRESHENED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO
THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

UPDATED HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS. IT LOOKS LIKE DEWPOINTS
HAVE DROPPED OFF A BIT OVER THE PAST 3 TO 4 HOURS WITH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING TO HOLD STEADY. THIS HAS MADE FOR SLIGHTLY LOWER RH`S THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE...STILL WATCHING THE COLD FRONT MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST. WINDS ALONG THE FRONT HAVE BEEN GUSTING UP TO 40 TO 45 MPH.
THIS MATCHES WELL WITH THE FORECAST...SO EVERYTHING SEEMS ON TRACK
FOR A WINDY DAY. ITS ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT SKIES HAVE
PARTIALLY CLEARED OFF THIS MORNING AND WILL ALLOW FOR A BIT OF
SURFACE HEATING PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL ARRIVAL LATER THIS MORNING. THIS
WILL POTENTIALLY HELP AID IN THE HIGHER EXPECTED WIND GUSTS. AS FAR
AS PRECIPITATION GOES...ALL THE SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN ALONG OR
JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER AS EXPECTED AND THEY CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD. ON THEIR CURRENT TRAJECTORY...THIS WILL KEEP ALL OF
THIS ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...WILL
MAINTAIN THE SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST WITH THE FRONT CROSSING THE
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

WRAPPED UP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS NOW PUSHED OFF TO THE NORTH INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTH ACROSS ILLINOIS
INTO ARKANSAS. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS VERY STRONG ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING ALLOWING FOR GUSTY WINDS. AS THE FRONT TO THE WEST
CROSSES THE AREA TODAY...THESE WINDS SHOULD ONLY INCREASE AND
THUS...THE WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. OUTSIDE OF ADJUSTING
THE GUSTS UP SLIGHTLY...MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE WINDS. A WEAK
WAVE WILL CROSS NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AS THE
FRONT PUSHES EAST TODAY. HOWEVER...BETTER MOISTURE AND FORCING WITH
THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH. WITH A GLANCING
BLOW...AND BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING ONLY SHALLOW
MOISTURE...CANNOT IMAGINE WE WILL SEE ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW
SPRINKLES. THUS...HAVE BACKED OFF POPS TODAY. AFTER A MILD
START...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.

WHILE SOME MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SOME CLOUD COVER BEHIND THE
FRONT...IT APPEARS BETTER MOISTURE WILL STAY JUST OFF TO OUR
NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
DEVELOPING TONIGHT. FLOW NEVER BECOMES NORTHWEST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
MOISTURE HANGING ON INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...SO IT LOOKS LIKE LESS
CLOUD COVER IS THE WAY TO GO. WITH SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE
AREA...THE CLEAR SKIES COULD ALLOW FOR WINDS TO GO FAIRLY LIGHT IN
THE SHELTERED VALLEYS...ALLOW FOR LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. RIDGING WILL
HOLD THROUGH TUESDAY...PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...BUT A COOLER
DAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO TRANSITIONING AN
AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE PATTERN TO ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. INDIVIDUAL FEATURES...HOWEVER CONTINUE TO BE CHALLENGING WITH
TIMING AND EVOLUTION...SO HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO A BLENDED SOLUTION.

A DEEP TROUGH WILL BE SLIDING EAST FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS TO THE
EAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR A DEVELOPING EAST COAST
SURFACE LOW. THE ECMWF REMAINS SLOWER AND TO THE WEST...WHILE THE
GFS IS FASTER AND FURTHER EAST. A BLENDED SOLUTION WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME MOISTURE TO MAKE IT IN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. POPS HAVE COME UP
USING A BLEND...SO HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT. MAINLY RAIN WILL FALL IN
VALLEYS...WITH MORE SNOW ON THE HIGHER RIDGES BORDERING VIRGINIA.

ONCE THIS MOISTURE EXITS LATER INTO WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EASTWARD
MOVING LONG WAVE TROUGH. BOTH MODELS HAVE PLAYED UP THE MOISTURE
WITH THIS FEATURE. AGAIN...THE GFS IS FASTER...WHILE THE ECMWF IS
SLOWER. THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
BOTH RAIN AND SNOW...AND WILL CONTINUE TO HEDGE THIS FOR NOW UNTIL
THINGS GEL A BIT BETTER. THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS TO BE CHILLY WITH
HIGHS LIKELY NOT MAKING IT OUT OF THE 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END BY LATE IN THE DAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE PROVIDING DRY WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
THIS WEEKEND...PROVIDING ANOTHER THREAT OF PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN
THE FORM OF RAIN AS TEMPERATURES MODIFY CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS IN
THE RETURN FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 105 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

A STRONG...BUT MOSTLY DRY...COLD FRONT IS CROSSING THROUGH EASTERN
KENTUCKY. FROM THIS...LITTLE MORE THAN A SPRINKLE WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. MID LEVEL CIGS WILL
EVENTUALLY BREAK UP BY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT NOT BEFORE A FEW MVFR
CIGS DRIFT THROUGH THE NORTHERN SITES...POST FRONTAL. LATE TONIGHT
AND THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY THE SKIES WILL BE VFR. THE MAIN AVIATION
IMPACT WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS ARE OCCASIONALLY REACHING 40 KNOTS IN
PLACES THIS AFTERNOON WITH THIS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST
SEVERAL MORE HOURS. WHILE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH INTO THE
EVENING...FOLLOWING FROPA...THEY COULD REMAIN GUSTY IN SOME PLACES
THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE INTO THE DAY
TUESDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...GREIF





000
FXUS63 KJKL 241805 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
105 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS TO FINE TUNE THE WARM TEMPERATURES
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND TO TAKE DOWN THE POP COVERAGE. WINDS
REMAIN STRONG...THOUGH...EVEN WITH THE SPRINKLES AS EVIDENCED BY THE
RECENT 53 MPH FROM THE QUICKSAND MESONET. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE
NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1025 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

15Z SFC FORECAST ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. THE STRENGTH OF THIS LOW IS MAKING FOR A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS
SUSTAINED AT 15 TO 25 KTS AND GUSTS TO 40 KTS THROUGHOUT EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. THIS LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA
AROUND MIDDAY WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A POTENTIAL FOR A
STRAY THUNDERSTORM. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BEEF UP THE POPS
RIGHT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND INTRODUCED THE POTENTIAL FOR A
LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO...MAINLY IN THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA
WHERE THERE WILL BE A BIT MORE INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT. ALSO KEPT
THE IDEA OF SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST. IN ADDITION...THE SHOWERS ARE
CAPABLE OF BRINGING DOWN EVEN HIGHER WIND GUSTS AS THEY PASS. THERE
IS A WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 7 PM.
CURRENTLY TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING IN THE MID 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH SOME ROOM TO GO UP A COUPLE MORE DEGREES OR SO BEFORE THE CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT BRING THEM BACK DOWN...FOLLOWED BY CAA
FROM WEST TO EAST DROPPING TEMPS MORE DRAMATICALLY POST FRONTAL LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS AND ZFP WITH THE HWO TO FOLLOW
TO ADD THE THUNDERS CHANCES. THE FRESHENED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO
THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

UPDATED HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS. IT LOOKS LIKE DEWPOINTS
HAVE DROPPED OFF A BIT OVER THE PAST 3 TO 4 HOURS WITH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING TO HOLD STEADY. THIS HAS MADE FOR SLIGHTLY LOWER RH`S THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE...STILL WATCHING THE COLD FRONT MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST. WINDS ALONG THE FRONT HAVE BEEN GUSTING UP TO 40 TO 45 MPH.
THIS MATCHES WELL WITH THE FORECAST...SO EVERYTHING SEEMS ON TRACK
FOR A WINDY DAY. ITS ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT SKIES HAVE
PARTIALLY CLEARED OFF THIS MORNING AND WILL ALLOW FOR A BIT OF
SURFACE HEATING PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL ARRIVAL LATER THIS MORNING. THIS
WILL POTENTIALLY HELP AID IN THE HIGHER EXPECTED WIND GUSTS. AS FAR
AS PRECIPITATION GOES...ALL THE SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN ALONG OR
JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER AS EXPECTED AND THEY CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD. ON THEIR CURRENT TRAJECTORY...THIS WILL KEEP ALL OF
THIS ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...WILL
MAINTAIN THE SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST WITH THE FRONT CROSSING THE
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

WRAPPED UP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS NOW PUSHED OFF TO THE NORTH INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTH ACROSS ILLINOIS
INTO ARKANSAS. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS VERY STRONG ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING ALLOWING FOR GUSTY WINDS. AS THE FRONT TO THE WEST
CROSSES THE AREA TODAY...THESE WINDS SHOULD ONLY INCREASE AND
THUS...THE WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. OUTSIDE OF ADJUSTING
THE GUSTS UP SLIGHTLY...MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE WINDS. A WEAK
WAVE WILL CROSS NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AS THE
FRONT PUSHES EAST TODAY. HOWEVER...BETTER MOISTURE AND FORCING WITH
THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH. WITH A GLANCING
BLOW...AND BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING ONLY SHALLOW
MOISTURE...CANNOT IMAGINE WE WILL SEE ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW
SPRINKLES. THUS...HAVE BACKED OFF POPS TODAY. AFTER A MILD
START...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.

WHILE SOME MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SOME CLOUD COVER BEHIND THE
FRONT...IT APPEARS BETTER MOISTURE WILL STAY JUST OFF TO OUR
NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
DEVELOPING TONIGHT. FLOW NEVER BECOMES NORTHWEST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
MOISTURE HANGING ON INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...SO IT LOOKS LIKE LESS
CLOUD COVER IS THE WAY TO GO. WITH SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE
AREA...THE CLEAR SKIES COULD ALLOW FOR WINDS TO GO FAIRLY LIGHT IN
THE SHELTERED VALLEYS...ALLOW FOR LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. RIDGING WILL
HOLD THROUGH TUESDAY...PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...BUT A COOLER
DAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO TRANSITIONING AN
AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE PATTERN TO ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. INDIVIDUAL FEATURES...HOWEVER CONTINUE TO BE CHALLENGING WITH
TIMING AND EVOLUTION...SO HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO A BLENDED SOLUTION.

A DEEP TROUGH WILL BE SLIDING EAST FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS TO THE
EAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR A DEVELOPING EAST COAST
SURFACE LOW. THE ECMWF REMAINS SLOWER AND TO THE WEST...WHILE THE
GFS IS FASTER AND FURTHER EAST. A BLENDED SOLUTION WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME MOISTURE TO MAKE IT IN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. POPS HAVE COME UP
USING A BLEND...SO HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT. MAINLY RAIN WILL FALL IN
VALLEYS...WITH MORE SNOW ON THE HIGHER RIDGES BORDERING VIRGINIA.

ONCE THIS MOISTURE EXITS LATER INTO WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EASTWARD
MOVING LONG WAVE TROUGH. BOTH MODELS HAVE PLAYED UP THE MOISTURE
WITH THIS FEATURE. AGAIN...THE GFS IS FASTER...WHILE THE ECMWF IS
SLOWER. THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
BOTH RAIN AND SNOW...AND WILL CONTINUE TO HEDGE THIS FOR NOW UNTIL
THINGS GEL A BIT BETTER. THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS TO BE CHILLY WITH
HIGHS LIKELY NOT MAKING IT OUT OF THE 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END BY LATE IN THE DAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE PROVIDING DRY WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
THIS WEEKEND...PROVIDING ANOTHER THREAT OF PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN
THE FORM OF RAIN AS TEMPERATURES MODIFY CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS IN
THE RETURN FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 105 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

A STRONG...BUT MOSTLY DRY...COLD FRONT IS CROSSING THROUGH EASTERN
KENTUCKY. FROM THIS...LITTLE MORE THAN A SPRINKLE WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. MID LEVEL CIGS WILL
EVENTUALLY BREAK UP BY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT NOT BEFORE A FEW MVFR
CIGS DRIFT THROUGH THE NORTHERN SITES...POST FRONTAL. LATE TONIGHT
AND THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY THE SKIES WILL BE VFR. THE MAIN AVIATION
IMPACT WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS ARE OCCASIONALLY REACHING 40 KNOTS IN
PLACES THIS AFTERNOON WITH THIS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST
SEVERAL MORE HOURS. WHILE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH INTO THE
EVENING...FOLLOWING FROPA...THEY COULD REMAIN GUSTY IN SOME PLACES
THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE INTO THE DAY
TUESDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...GREIF






000
FXUS63 KJKL 241525 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1025 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1025 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

15Z SFC FORECAST ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. THE STRENGTH OF THIS LOW IS MAKING FOR A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS
SUSTAINED AT 15 TO 25 KTS AND GUSTS TO 40 KTS THROUGHOUT EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. THIS LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA
AROUND MIDDAY WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A POTENTIAL FOR A
STRAY THUNDERSTORM. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BEEF UP THE POPS
RIGHT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND INTRODUCED THE POTENTIAL FOR A
LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO...MAINLY IN THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA
WHERE THERE WILL BE A BIT MORE INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT. ALSO KEPT
THE IDEA OF SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST. IN ADDITION...THE SHOWERS ARE
CAPABLE OF BRINGING DOWN EVEN HIGHER WIND GUSTS AS THEY PASS. THERE
IS A WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 7 PM.
CURRENTLY TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING IN THE MID 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH SOME ROOM TO GO UP A COUPLE MORE DEGREES OR SO BEFORE THE CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT BRING THEM BACK DOWN...FOLLOWED BY CAA
FROM WEST TO EAST DROPPING TEMPS MORE DRAMATICALLY POST FRONTAL LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS AND ZFP WITH THE HWO TO FOLLOW
TO ADD THE THUNDERS CHANCES. THE FRESHENED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO
THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

UPDATED HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS. IT LOOKS LIKE DEWPOINTS
HAVE DROPPED OFF A BIT OVER THE PAST 3 TO 4 HOURS WITH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING TO HOLD STEADY. THIS HAS MADE FOR SLIGHTLY LOWER RH`S THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE...STILL WATCHING THE COLD FRONT MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST. WINDS ALONG THE FRONT HAVE BEEN GUSTING UP TO 40 TO 45 MPH.
THIS MATCHES WELL WITH THE FORECAST...SO EVERYTHING SEEMS ON TRACK
FOR A WINDY DAY. ITS ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT SKIES HAVE
PARTIALLY CLEARED OFF THIS MORNING AND WILL ALLOW FOR A BIT OF
SURFACE HEATING PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL ARRIVAL LATER THIS MORNING. THIS
WILL POTENTIALLY HELP AID IN THE HIGHER EXPECTED WIND GUSTS. AS FAR
AS PRECIPITATION GOES...ALL THE SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN ALONG OR
JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER AS EXPECTED AND THEY CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD. ON THEIR CURRENT TRAJECTORY...THIS WILL KEEP ALL OF
THIS ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...WILL
MAINTAIN THE SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST WITH THE FRONT CROSSING THE
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

WRAPPED UP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS NOW PUSHED OFF TO THE NORTH INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTH ACROSS ILLINOIS
INTO ARKANSAS. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS VERY STRONG ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING ALLOWING FOR GUSTY WINDS. AS THE FRONT TO THE WEST
CROSSES THE AREA TODAY...THESE WINDS SHOULD ONLY INCREASE AND
THUS...THE WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. OUTSIDE OF ADJUSTING
THE GUSTS UP SLIGHTLY...MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE WINDS. A WEAK
WAVE WILL CROSS NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AS THE
FRONT PUSHES EAST TODAY. HOWEVER...BETTER MOISTURE AND FORCING WITH
THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH. WITH A GLANCING
BLOW...AND BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING ONLY SHALLOW
MOISTURE...CANNOT IMAGINE WE WILL SEE ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW
SPRINKLES. THUS...HAVE BACKED OFF POPS TODAY. AFTER A MILD
START...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.

WHILE SOME MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SOME CLOUD COVER BEHIND THE
FRONT...IT APPEARS BETTER MOISTURE WILL STAY JUST OFF TO OUR
NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
DEVELOPING TONIGHT. FLOW NEVER BECOMES NORTHWEST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
MOISTURE HANGING ON INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...SO IT LOOKS LIKE LESS
CLOUD COVER IS THE WAY TO GO. WITH SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE
AREA...THE CLEAR SKIES COULD ALLOW FOR WINDS TO GO FAIRLY LIGHT IN
THE SHELTERED VALLEYS...ALLOW FOR LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. RIDGING WILL
HOLD THROUGH TUESDAY...PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...BUT A COOLER
DAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO TRANSITIONING AN
AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE PATTERN TO ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. INDIVIDUAL FEATURES...HOWEVER CONTINUE TO BE CHALLENGING WITH
TIMING AND EVOLUTION...SO HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO A BLENDED SOLUTION.

A DEEP TROUGH WILL BE SLIDING EAST FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS TO THE
EAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR A DEVELOPING EAST COAST
SURFACE LOW. THE ECMWF REMAINS SLOWER AND TO THE WEST...WHILE THE
GFS IS FASTER AND FURTHER EAST. A BLENDED SOLUTION WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME MOISTURE TO MAKE IT IN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. POPS HAVE COME UP
USING A BLEND...SO HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT. MAINLY RAIN WILL FALL IN
VALLEYS...WITH MORE SNOW ON THE HIGHER RIDGES BORDERING VIRGINIA.

ONCE THIS MOISTURE EXITS LATER INTO WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EASTWARD
MOVING LONG WAVE TROUGH. BOTH MODELS HAVE PLAYED UP THE MOISTURE
WITH THIS FEATURE. AGAIN...THE GFS IS FASTER...WHILE THE ECMWF IS
SLOWER. THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
BOTH RAIN AND SNOW...AND WILL CONTINUE TO HEDGE THIS FOR NOW UNTIL
THINGS GEL A BIT BETTER. THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS TO BE CHILLY WITH
HIGHS LIKELY NOT MAKING IT OUT OF THE 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END BY LATE IN THE DAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE PROVIDING DRY WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
THIS WEEKEND...PROVIDING ANOTHER THREAT OF PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN
THE FORM OF RAIN AS TEMPERATURES MODIFY CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS IN
THE RETURN FLOW.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 146 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

SOME MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD
LIFT BACK TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY. PRECIPITATION IS
COMING TO AN END...WITH NOT MUCH MORE THAN A SPRINKLE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. CIGS WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK UP BY LATE IN THE
DAY. THE MAIN AVIATION IMPACT WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY EVENING. WIND GUSTS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
COULD REACH 40 KNOTS IN SOME PLACES. WHILE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SOME
INTO MONDAY EVENING...THEY COULD REMAIN GUSTY IN SOME
PLACES...THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 146 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

SOME MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD
LIFT BACK TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY. PRECIPITATION IS
COMING TO AN END...WITH NOT MUCH MORE THAN A SPRINKLE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. CIGS WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK UP BY LATE IN THE
DAY. THE MAIN AVIATION IMPACT WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY EVENING. WIND GUSTS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
COULD REACH 40 KNOTS IN SOME PLACES. WHILE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SOME
INTO MONDAY EVENING...THEY COULD REMAIN GUSTY IN SOME
PLACES...THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY EVENING.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...KAS








000
FXUS63 KJKL 241131
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
631 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

UPDATED HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS. IT LOOKS LIKE DEWPOINTS
HAVE DROPPED OFF A BIT OVER THE PAST 3 TO 4 HOURS WITH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING TO HOLD STEADY. THIS HAS MADE FOR SLIGHTLY LOWER RH`S THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE...STILL WATCHING THE COLD FRONT MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST. WINDS ALONG THE FRONT HAVE BEEN GUSTING UP TO 40 TO 45 MPH.
THIS MATCHES WELL WITH THE FORECAST...SO EVERYTHING SEEMS ON TRACK
FOR A WINDY DAY. ITS ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT SKIES HAVE
PARTIALLY CLEARED OFF THIS MORNING AND WILL ALLOW FOR A BIT OF
SURFACE HEATING PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL ARRIVAL LATER THIS MORNING. THIS
WILL POTENTIALLY HELP AID IN THE HIGHER EXPECTED WIND GUSTS. AS FAR
AS PRECIPITATION GOES...ALL THE SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN ALONG OR
JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER AS EXPECTED AND THEY CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD. ON THEIR CURRENT TRAJECTORY...THIS WILL KEEP ALL OF
THIS ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...WILL
MAINTAIN THE SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST WITH THE FRONT CROSSING THE
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

WRAPPED UP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS NOW PUSHED OFF TO THE NORTH INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTH ACROSS ILLINOIS
INTO ARKANSAS. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS VERY STRONG ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING ALLOWING FOR GUSTY WINDS. AS THE FRONT TO THE WEST
CROSSES THE AREA TODAY...THESE WINDS SHOULD ONLY INCREASE AND
THUS...THE WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. OUTSIDE OF ADJUSTING
THE GUSTS UP SLIGHTLY...MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE WINDS. A WEAK
WAVE WILL CROSS NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AS THE
FRONT PUSHES EAST TODAY. HOWEVER...BETTER MOISTURE AND FORCING WITH
THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH. WITH A GLANCING
BLOW...AND BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING ONLY SHALLOW
MOISTURE...CANNOT IMAGINE WE WILL SEE ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW
SPRINKLES. THUS...HAVE BACKED OFF POPS TODAY. AFTER A MILD
START...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.

WHILE SOME MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SOME CLOUD COVER BEHIND THE
FRONT...IT APPEARS BETTER MOISTURE WILL STAY JUST OFF TO OUR
NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
DEVELOPING TONIGHT. FLOW NEVER BECOMES NORTHWEST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
MOISTURE HANGING ON INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...SO IT LOOKS LIKE LESS
CLOUD COVER IS THE WAY TO GO. WITH SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE
AREA...THE CLEAR SKIES COULD ALLOW FOR WINDS TO GO FAIRLY LIGHT IN
THE SHELTERED VALLEYS...ALLOW FOR LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. RIDGING WILL
HOLD THROUGH TUESDAY...PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...BUT A COOLER
DAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO TRANSITIONING AN
AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE PATTERN TO ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. INDIVIDUAL FEATURES...HOWEVER CONTINUE TO BE CHALLENGING WITH
TIMING AND EVOLUTION...SO HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO A BLENDED SOLUTION.

A DEEP TROUGH WILL BE SLIDING EAST FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS TO THE
EAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR A DEVELOPING EAST COAST
SURFACE LOW. THE ECMWF REMAINS SLOWER AND TO THE WEST...WHILE THE
GFS IS FASTER AND FURTHER EAST. A BLENDED SOLUTION WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME MOISTURE TO MAKE IT IN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. POPS HAVE COME UP
USING A BLEND...SO HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT. MAINLY RAIN WILL FALL IN
VALLEYS...WITH MORE SNOW ON THE HIGHER RIDGES BORDERING VIRGINIA.

ONCE THIS MOISTURE EXITS LATER INTO WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EASTWARD
MOVING LONG WAVE TROUGH. BOTH MODELS HAVE PLAYED UP THE MOISTURE
WITH THIS FEATURE. AGAIN...THE GFS IS FASTER...WHILE THE ECMWF IS
SLOWER. THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
BOTH RAIN AND SNOW...AND WILL CONTINUE TO HEDGE THIS FOR NOW UNTIL
THINGS GEL A BIT BETTER. THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS TO BE CHILLY WITH
HIGHS LIKELY NOT MAKING IT OUT OF THE 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END BY LATE IN THE DAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE PROVIDING DRY WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
THIS WEEKEND...PROVIDING ANOTHER THREAT OF PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN
THE FORM OF RAIN AS TEMPERATURES MODIFY CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS IN
THE RETURN FLOW.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 146 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

SOME MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD
LIFT BACK TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY. PRECIPITATION IS
COMING TO AN END...WITH NOT MUCH MORE THAN A SPRINKLE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. CIGS WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK UP BY LATE IN THE
DAY. THE MAIN AVIATION IMPACT WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY EVENING. WIND GUSTS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
COULD REACH 40 KNOTS IN SOME PLACES. WHILE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SOME
INTO MONDAY EVENING...THEY COULD REMAIN GUSTY IN SOME
PLACES...THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

SKIES HAVE RETURNED TO VFR EARLY THIS MORNING AS SKIES HAVE PARTIALLY
CLEARED OFF ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAIN STORY WILL FOR AVIATION WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE STRONG WINDS WITH A COLD FRONT AS IT PASSES
THROUGH TODAY. WIND GUSTS BY LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON COULD
REACH 40 KNOTS IN SOME PLACES. WHILE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SOME INTO
MONDAY EVENING...THEY COULD REMAIN GUSTY IN SOME PLACES...THROUGH
MUCH OF MONDAY EVENING...BEFORE SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF THE
STRONG WINDS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...KAS







000
FXUS63 KJKL 241131
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
631 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

UPDATED HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS. IT LOOKS LIKE DEWPOINTS
HAVE DROPPED OFF A BIT OVER THE PAST 3 TO 4 HOURS WITH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING TO HOLD STEADY. THIS HAS MADE FOR SLIGHTLY LOWER RH`S THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE...STILL WATCHING THE COLD FRONT MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST. WINDS ALONG THE FRONT HAVE BEEN GUSTING UP TO 40 TO 45 MPH.
THIS MATCHES WELL WITH THE FORECAST...SO EVERYTHING SEEMS ON TRACK
FOR A WINDY DAY. ITS ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT SKIES HAVE
PARTIALLY CLEARED OFF THIS MORNING AND WILL ALLOW FOR A BIT OF
SURFACE HEATING PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL ARRIVAL LATER THIS MORNING. THIS
WILL POTENTIALLY HELP AID IN THE HIGHER EXPECTED WIND GUSTS. AS FAR
AS PRECIPITATION GOES...ALL THE SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN ALONG OR
JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER AS EXPECTED AND THEY CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD. ON THEIR CURRENT TRAJECTORY...THIS WILL KEEP ALL OF
THIS ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...WILL
MAINTAIN THE SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST WITH THE FRONT CROSSING THE
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

WRAPPED UP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS NOW PUSHED OFF TO THE NORTH INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTH ACROSS ILLINOIS
INTO ARKANSAS. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS VERY STRONG ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING ALLOWING FOR GUSTY WINDS. AS THE FRONT TO THE WEST
CROSSES THE AREA TODAY...THESE WINDS SHOULD ONLY INCREASE AND
THUS...THE WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. OUTSIDE OF ADJUSTING
THE GUSTS UP SLIGHTLY...MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE WINDS. A WEAK
WAVE WILL CROSS NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AS THE
FRONT PUSHES EAST TODAY. HOWEVER...BETTER MOISTURE AND FORCING WITH
THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH. WITH A GLANCING
BLOW...AND BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING ONLY SHALLOW
MOISTURE...CANNOT IMAGINE WE WILL SEE ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW
SPRINKLES. THUS...HAVE BACKED OFF POPS TODAY. AFTER A MILD
START...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.

WHILE SOME MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SOME CLOUD COVER BEHIND THE
FRONT...IT APPEARS BETTER MOISTURE WILL STAY JUST OFF TO OUR
NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
DEVELOPING TONIGHT. FLOW NEVER BECOMES NORTHWEST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
MOISTURE HANGING ON INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...SO IT LOOKS LIKE LESS
CLOUD COVER IS THE WAY TO GO. WITH SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE
AREA...THE CLEAR SKIES COULD ALLOW FOR WINDS TO GO FAIRLY LIGHT IN
THE SHELTERED VALLEYS...ALLOW FOR LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. RIDGING WILL
HOLD THROUGH TUESDAY...PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...BUT A COOLER
DAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO TRANSITIONING AN
AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE PATTERN TO ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. INDIVIDUAL FEATURES...HOWEVER CONTINUE TO BE CHALLENGING WITH
TIMING AND EVOLUTION...SO HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO A BLENDED SOLUTION.

A DEEP TROUGH WILL BE SLIDING EAST FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS TO THE
EAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR A DEVELOPING EAST COAST
SURFACE LOW. THE ECMWF REMAINS SLOWER AND TO THE WEST...WHILE THE
GFS IS FASTER AND FURTHER EAST. A BLENDED SOLUTION WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME MOISTURE TO MAKE IT IN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. POPS HAVE COME UP
USING A BLEND...SO HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT. MAINLY RAIN WILL FALL IN
VALLEYS...WITH MORE SNOW ON THE HIGHER RIDGES BORDERING VIRGINIA.

ONCE THIS MOISTURE EXITS LATER INTO WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EASTWARD
MOVING LONG WAVE TROUGH. BOTH MODELS HAVE PLAYED UP THE MOISTURE
WITH THIS FEATURE. AGAIN...THE GFS IS FASTER...WHILE THE ECMWF IS
SLOWER. THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
BOTH RAIN AND SNOW...AND WILL CONTINUE TO HEDGE THIS FOR NOW UNTIL
THINGS GEL A BIT BETTER. THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS TO BE CHILLY WITH
HIGHS LIKELY NOT MAKING IT OUT OF THE 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END BY LATE IN THE DAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE PROVIDING DRY WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
THIS WEEKEND...PROVIDING ANOTHER THREAT OF PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN
THE FORM OF RAIN AS TEMPERATURES MODIFY CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS IN
THE RETURN FLOW.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 146 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

SOME MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD
LIFT BACK TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY. PRECIPITATION IS
COMING TO AN END...WITH NOT MUCH MORE THAN A SPRINKLE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. CIGS WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK UP BY LATE IN THE
DAY. THE MAIN AVIATION IMPACT WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY EVENING. WIND GUSTS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
COULD REACH 40 KNOTS IN SOME PLACES. WHILE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SOME
INTO MONDAY EVENING...THEY COULD REMAIN GUSTY IN SOME
PLACES...THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

SKIES HAVE RETURNED TO VFR EARLY THIS MORNING AS SKIES HAVE PARTIALLY
CLEARED OFF ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAIN STORY WILL FOR AVIATION WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE STRONG WINDS WITH A COLD FRONT AS IT PASSES
THROUGH TODAY. WIND GUSTS BY LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON COULD
REACH 40 KNOTS IN SOME PLACES. WHILE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SOME INTO
MONDAY EVENING...THEY COULD REMAIN GUSTY IN SOME PLACES...THROUGH
MUCH OF MONDAY EVENING...BEFORE SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF THE
STRONG WINDS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...KAS








000
FXUS63 KJKL 240918
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
418 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

WRAPPED UP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS NOW PUSHED OFF TO THE NORTH INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTH ACROSS ILLINOIS
INTO ARKANSAS. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS VERY STRONG ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING ALLOWING FOR GUSTY WINDS. AS THE FRONT TO THE WEST
CROSSES THE AREA TODAY...THESE WINDS SHOULD ONLY INCREASE AND
THUS...THE WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. OUTSIDE OF ADJUSTING
THE GUSTS UP SLIGHTLY...MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE WINDS. A WEAK
WAVE WILL CROSS NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AS THE
FRONT PUSHES EAST TODAY. HOWEVER...BETTER MOISTURE AND FORCING WITH
THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH. WITH A GLANCING
BLOW...AND BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING ONLY SHALLOW
MOISTURE...CANNOT IMAGINE WE WILL SEE ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW
SPRINKLES. THUS...HAVE BACKED OFF POPS TODAY. AFTER A MILD
START...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.

WHILE SOME MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SOME CLOUD COVER BEHIND THE
FRONT...IT APPEARS BETTER MOISTURE WILL STAY JUST OFF TO OUR
NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
DEVELOPING TONIGHT. FLOW NEVER BECOMES NORTHWEST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
MOISTURE HANGING ON INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...SO IT LOOKS LIKE LESS
CLOUD COVER IS THE WAY TO GO. WITH SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE
AREA...THE CLEAR SKIES COULD ALLOW FOR WINDS TO GO FAIRLY LIGHT IN
THE SHELTERED VALLEYS...ALLOW FOR LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. RIDGING WILL
HOLD THROUGH TUESDAY...PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...BUT A COOLER
DAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO TRANSITIONING AN
AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE PATTERN TO ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. INDIVIDUAL FEATURES...HOWEVER CONTINUE TO BE CHALLENGING WITH
TIMING AND EVOLUTION...SO HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO A BLENDED SOLUTION.

A DEEP TROUGH WILL BE SLIDING EAST FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS TO THE
EAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR A DEVELOPING EAST COAST
SURFACE LOW. THE ECMWF REMAINS SLOWER AND TO THE WEST...WHILE THE
GFS IS FASTER AND FURTHER EAST. A BLENDED SOLUTION WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME MOISTURE TO MAKE IT IN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. POPS HAVE COME UP
USING A BLEND...SO HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT. MAINLY RAIN WILL FALL IN
VALLEYS...WITH MORE SNOW ON THE HIGHER RIDGES BORDERING VIRGINIA.

ONCE THIS MOISTURE EXITS LATER INTO WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EASTWARD
MOVING LONG WAVE TROUGH. BOTH MODELS HAVE PLAYED UP THE MOISTURE
WITH THIS FEATURE. AGAIN...THE GFS IS FASTER...WHILE THE ECMWF IS
SLOWER. THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
BOTH RAIN AND SNOW...AND WILL CONTINUE TO HEDGE THIS FOR NOW UNTIL
THINGS GEL A BIT BETTER. THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS TO BE CHILLY WITH
HIGHS LIKELY NOT MAKING IT OUT OF THE 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END BY LATE IN THE DAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE PROVIDING DRY WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
THIS WEEKEND...PROVIDING ANOTHER THREAT OF PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN
THE FORM OF RAIN AS TEMPERATURES MODIFY CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS IN
THE RETURN FLOW.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 146 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

SOME MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD
LIFT BACK TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY. PRECIPITATION IS
COMING TO AN END...WITH NOT MUCH MORE THAN A SPRINKLE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. CIGS WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK UP BY LATE IN THE
DAY. THE MAIN AVIATION IMPACT WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY EVENING. WIND GUSTS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
COULD REACH 40 KNOTS IN SOME PLACES. WHILE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SOME
INTO MONDAY EVENING...THEY COULD REMAIN GUSTY IN SOME
PLACES...THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...KAS









000
FXUS63 KJKL 240918
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
418 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

WRAPPED UP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS NOW PUSHED OFF TO THE NORTH INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTH ACROSS ILLINOIS
INTO ARKANSAS. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS VERY STRONG ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING ALLOWING FOR GUSTY WINDS. AS THE FRONT TO THE WEST
CROSSES THE AREA TODAY...THESE WINDS SHOULD ONLY INCREASE AND
THUS...THE WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. OUTSIDE OF ADJUSTING
THE GUSTS UP SLIGHTLY...MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE WINDS. A WEAK
WAVE WILL CROSS NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AS THE
FRONT PUSHES EAST TODAY. HOWEVER...BETTER MOISTURE AND FORCING WITH
THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH. WITH A GLANCING
BLOW...AND BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING ONLY SHALLOW
MOISTURE...CANNOT IMAGINE WE WILL SEE ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW
SPRINKLES. THUS...HAVE BACKED OFF POPS TODAY. AFTER A MILD
START...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.

WHILE SOME MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SOME CLOUD COVER BEHIND THE
FRONT...IT APPEARS BETTER MOISTURE WILL STAY JUST OFF TO OUR
NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
DEVELOPING TONIGHT. FLOW NEVER BECOMES NORTHWEST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
MOISTURE HANGING ON INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...SO IT LOOKS LIKE LESS
CLOUD COVER IS THE WAY TO GO. WITH SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE
AREA...THE CLEAR SKIES COULD ALLOW FOR WINDS TO GO FAIRLY LIGHT IN
THE SHELTERED VALLEYS...ALLOW FOR LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. RIDGING WILL
HOLD THROUGH TUESDAY...PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...BUT A COOLER
DAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO TRANSITIONING AN
AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE PATTERN TO ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. INDIVIDUAL FEATURES...HOWEVER CONTINUE TO BE CHALLENGING WITH
TIMING AND EVOLUTION...SO HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO A BLENDED SOLUTION.

A DEEP TROUGH WILL BE SLIDING EAST FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS TO THE
EAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR A DEVELOPING EAST COAST
SURFACE LOW. THE ECMWF REMAINS SLOWER AND TO THE WEST...WHILE THE
GFS IS FASTER AND FURTHER EAST. A BLENDED SOLUTION WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME MOISTURE TO MAKE IT IN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. POPS HAVE COME UP
USING A BLEND...SO HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT. MAINLY RAIN WILL FALL IN
VALLEYS...WITH MORE SNOW ON THE HIGHER RIDGES BORDERING VIRGINIA.

ONCE THIS MOISTURE EXITS LATER INTO WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EASTWARD
MOVING LONG WAVE TROUGH. BOTH MODELS HAVE PLAYED UP THE MOISTURE
WITH THIS FEATURE. AGAIN...THE GFS IS FASTER...WHILE THE ECMWF IS
SLOWER. THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
BOTH RAIN AND SNOW...AND WILL CONTINUE TO HEDGE THIS FOR NOW UNTIL
THINGS GEL A BIT BETTER. THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS TO BE CHILLY WITH
HIGHS LIKELY NOT MAKING IT OUT OF THE 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END BY LATE IN THE DAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE PROVIDING DRY WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
THIS WEEKEND...PROVIDING ANOTHER THREAT OF PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN
THE FORM OF RAIN AS TEMPERATURES MODIFY CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS IN
THE RETURN FLOW.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 146 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

SOME MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD
LIFT BACK TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY. PRECIPITATION IS
COMING TO AN END...WITH NOT MUCH MORE THAN A SPRINKLE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. CIGS WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK UP BY LATE IN THE
DAY. THE MAIN AVIATION IMPACT WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY EVENING. WIND GUSTS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
COULD REACH 40 KNOTS IN SOME PLACES. WHILE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SOME
INTO MONDAY EVENING...THEY COULD REMAIN GUSTY IN SOME
PLACES...THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...KAS








000
FXUS63 KJKL 240756
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
256 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

WRAPPED UP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS NOW PUSHED OFF TO THE NORTH INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTH ACROSS ILLINOIS
INTO ARKANSAS. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS VERY STRONG ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING ALLOWING FOR GUSTY WINDS. AS THE FRONT TO THE WEST
CROSSES THE AREA TODAY...THESE WINDS SHOULD ONLY INCREASE AND
THUS...THE WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. OUTSIDE OF ADJUSTING
THE GUSTS UP SLIGHTLY...MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE WINDS. A WEAK
WAVE WILL CROSS NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AS THE
FRONT PUSHES EAST TODAY. HOWEVER...BETTER MOISTURE AND FORCING WITH
THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH. WITH A GLANCING
BLOW...AND BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING ONLY SHALLOW
MOISTURE...CANNOT IMAGINE WE WILL SEE ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW
SPRINKLES. THUS...HAVE BACKED OFF POPS TODAY. AFTER A MILD
START...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.

WHILE SOME MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SOME CLOUD COVER BEHIND THE
FRONT...IT APPEARS BETTER MOISTURE WILL STAY JUST OFF TO OUR
NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
DEVELOPING TONIGHT. FLOW NEVER BECOMES NORTHWEST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
MOISTURE HANGING ON INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...SO IT LOOKS LIKE LESS
CLOUD COVER IS THE WAY TO GO. WITH SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE
AREA...THE CLEAR SKIES COULD ALLOW FOR WINDS TO GO FAIRLY LIGHT IN
THE SHELTERED VALLEYS...ALLOW FOR LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. RIDGING WILL
HOLD THROUGH TUESDAY...PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...BUT A COOLER
DAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

LONG TERM DISCUSSION TO FOLLOW SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 146 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

SOME MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD
LIFT BACK TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY. PRECIPITATION IS
COMING TO AN END...WITH NOT MUCH MORE THAN A SPRINKLE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. CIGS WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK UP BY LATE IN THE
DAY. THE MAIN AVIATION IMPACT WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY EVENING. WIND GUSTS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
COULD REACH 40 KNOTS IN SOME PLACES. WHILE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SOME
INTO MONDAY EVENING...THEY COULD REMAIN GUSTY IN SOME
PLACES...THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...KAS








000
FXUS63 KJKL 240756
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
256 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

WRAPPED UP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS NOW PUSHED OFF TO THE NORTH INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTH ACROSS ILLINOIS
INTO ARKANSAS. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS VERY STRONG ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING ALLOWING FOR GUSTY WINDS. AS THE FRONT TO THE WEST
CROSSES THE AREA TODAY...THESE WINDS SHOULD ONLY INCREASE AND
THUS...THE WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. OUTSIDE OF ADJUSTING
THE GUSTS UP SLIGHTLY...MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE WINDS. A WEAK
WAVE WILL CROSS NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AS THE
FRONT PUSHES EAST TODAY. HOWEVER...BETTER MOISTURE AND FORCING WITH
THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH. WITH A GLANCING
BLOW...AND BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING ONLY SHALLOW
MOISTURE...CANNOT IMAGINE WE WILL SEE ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW
SPRINKLES. THUS...HAVE BACKED OFF POPS TODAY. AFTER A MILD
START...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.

WHILE SOME MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SOME CLOUD COVER BEHIND THE
FRONT...IT APPEARS BETTER MOISTURE WILL STAY JUST OFF TO OUR
NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
DEVELOPING TONIGHT. FLOW NEVER BECOMES NORTHWEST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
MOISTURE HANGING ON INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...SO IT LOOKS LIKE LESS
CLOUD COVER IS THE WAY TO GO. WITH SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE
AREA...THE CLEAR SKIES COULD ALLOW FOR WINDS TO GO FAIRLY LIGHT IN
THE SHELTERED VALLEYS...ALLOW FOR LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. RIDGING WILL
HOLD THROUGH TUESDAY...PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...BUT A COOLER
DAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

LONG TERM DISCUSSION TO FOLLOW SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 146 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

SOME MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD
LIFT BACK TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY. PRECIPITATION IS
COMING TO AN END...WITH NOT MUCH MORE THAN A SPRINKLE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. CIGS WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK UP BY LATE IN THE
DAY. THE MAIN AVIATION IMPACT WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY EVENING. WIND GUSTS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
COULD REACH 40 KNOTS IN SOME PLACES. WHILE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SOME
INTO MONDAY EVENING...THEY COULD REMAIN GUSTY IN SOME
PLACES...THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...KAS







000
FXUS63 KJKL 240647
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
147 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 146 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

PRECIPITATION IS COMING TO AN END QUICKLY AND SHOULD EXIT THE NORTH
IN THE NEXT HOUR. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE UPDATED TO REMOVE
PRECIPITATION FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. AS IT LOOKS NOW...WAVE
ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY
MONDAY...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA. MOISTURE IS
RATHER THIN AND SHALLOW TO SUPPORT MUCH MORE THAN A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SPRINKLES. THUS...HAVE UPDATED INTO THE MONDAY PERIOD TO INCLUDE
MAINLY AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.
ALSO...WINDS ARE FAIRLY GOOD ALREADY ACROSS THE AREA...WITH WIND
GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS BEING REPORTED AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS. WITH
TEMPERATURES ALREADY AROUND 60...SEE NO REASON FOR THEM TO FALL
OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE GONE WITH STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPS. OUR
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY OCCUR VERY CLOSE TO THE CURRENT READINGS
AS THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY TODAY.
UPDATED THE TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT CURVES TO BETTER REFLECT THESE
TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1140 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH AND HAS PASSED THROUGH EASTERN
KENTUCKY. WITH THIS...THE BULK OF THE DEEP MOISTURE HAS ALSO MOVED OUT
LEAVING LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF
TONIGHT. BECAUSE OF THIS...HAVE LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. PRECIP WILL MOVE BACK THROUGH THE AREA DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY AND HAVE INCREASED THE POPS FOR THE ARRIVAL OF THE
COLD FRONT. FOR THE WINDS...THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT BROUGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS INTO THE AREA AND DECREASED GUSTS THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF TONIGHT. THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
EASTERN 3 COUNTIES EXPIRE FOR HIGH WINDS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THE GRADIENT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
COLD FRONT. THEREFORE...AN WIND ADVISORY WILL STILL BE IN EFFECT
LATER TONIGHT FOR GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TOWARDS MORNING AND INTO THE
DAY ON MONDAY. A NEW ZFP HAS BEEN SENT OUT FOR THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 922 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE THE SWATH OF RAIN
MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AS
WELL. AT THIS HOUR...TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH ARE QUITE WARM AND
HAVE ADJUSTED FOR THE SURGE OF WARM AIR BEHIND WARM FRONT. WITH
THIS...A BREAK IN THE PRECIP BEHIND THE FRONT HAS FORMED AND HAVE
ADDRESSED THIS IN THE NEW ZFP. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT AS WELL ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST AS PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CENTER TRACKS NORTHEAST. MUCH OF THE NIGHT
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE
AREA INTO THE MORNING HOURS. A NEW ZFP HAS BEEN SENT OUT FOR THIS
UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 710 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE EASTERN COUNTIES ACROSS THE AREA ARE GUSTING INTO THE UPPER 40S
AND LOW 50S THIS EVENING WITH A FEW REPORTS OF 52 TO 55 MPH WIND
GUSTS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ON TRACK AS WELL AS OTHER PARAMETERS
THROUGH THE EVENING. ADJUSTED THE WINDS AND WIND GUSTS FOR THE
CONTINUED HIGH WINDS. BECAUSE OF THIS...ISSUED THE WIND ADVISORY
EARLIER FOR HARLAN LETCHER AND PIKE COUNTIES UNTIL 04Z. BY THEN THE
WINDS SHOULD SLACK OFF A BIT BEFORE SWITCHING AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST. WILL CONTINUE THE ORIGINAL WIND ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY STARTING AT 09Z AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
HAVE ISSUED A NEW ZFP AND HWO TO HIGHLIGHT THESE CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE MAPS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SURFACE LOW
CONTINUING TO DEEPEN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AND WILL TRACK NE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A ATTENDANT WARM
FRONT WILL TRACK NE AND ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS EXPECT THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TO NEGATIVELY
TILT WITH THE AXIS GENERALLY TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
SHORTWAVE IS STILL EXPECTED TO COUPLE WITH THE LARGER TROUGH THAT IS
TRACKING EAST OUT OF THE WESTERN U.S. MOVING INTO MONDAY EXPECT A
SURFACE COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THIS
MODELED SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND GOOD MIXING TO
COINCIDE WITH STRONG JET ENERGY ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW
STRONGER JET ENERGY TO MIX DOWN. THEN WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL TRY TO
BUILD EAST MONDAY NIGHT.

GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP THROUGH THE PERIOD EXPECTING PRECIP TO
CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT. DOES LOOK LIKE MODELS DO
WANT TO KEEP SOME POPS AROUND OVERNIGHT SO PLAN TO STICK CLOSE TO
CHANCE/LIKELY RAIN SHOWERS FROM SW TO NE TONIGHT. THEN TRANSITION TO
SLIGHT/CHANCE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY. GIVEN STRONG JET
ENERGY ACROSS THE REGION AND DECENT MIXING EXPECTING STRONGER WINDS
TO BE A ISSUE ESPECIALLY INTO MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING
SLIGHT/CHANCE RAIN SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE CWA MONDAY. GIVEN MUCH OF
THE REGION WILL SEE WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 35 TO 45 MPH MONDAY
MORNING INTO LATE MONDAY. THIS HAS PROMPTED A WIND ADVISORY AREA WIDE
MONDAY MORNING TILL LATE MONDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TRAIL OFF AS
WE MOVE INTO THE EVENING ON MONDAY...THEN COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION AND WEAK HIGH WILL TRY TO BUILD EAST OVERNIGHT
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE MODELS REMAIN IN A STATE OF DISARRAY ALOFT THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF THE FORECAST FOR THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY. HOWEVER THE
GFS AND ECMWF SEEMS TO HAVE CONVERGED ON A SIMILAR SOLUTION WITH THE
NEXT TROUGH EVEN AS THEY FLIPPED THEIR SCENARIOS FROM YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. THEY ALL SWEEP A STRONG...FULL LATITUDE TROUGH THROUGH
THE DEEP SOUTH TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
ABOUND. THE NEXT BATCH OF ENERGY RUNNING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
TROUGH IS THE FEATURE THAT REMAINS IN QUESTION. THIS IS PROGGED TO
ARRIVE IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY LATER WEDNESDAY TAKING THE CORE OF
ITS ENERGY THROUGH KENTUCKY...NOW QUICKEST IN THE NEWLY AMPLIFIED
GFS VERSION WHEN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THE GEM DOES LITTLE TO
SETTLE THIS DISPUTE BY HAVING A MILDER AND SHALLOWER ITERATION OF
THIS TRAILING TROUGH. GIVEN THE SLOWLY GELLING SOLUTION HERE FOR
MIDWEEK WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A GENERAL MODEL BLEND. THE FOLLOW
ALONG TROUGH WILL THEN EASE EAST-NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT LEAVING FAIRLY FAST NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND ABOVE THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ZONAL THROUGH THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE BULK OF THE ENERGY DURING THIS TIME
STAYING TO THE NORTH...CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES. ALSO HERE...WILL
FAVOR A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WEATHER DETAILS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE DRYING OUT THE AREA ON
TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY/S FRONT AND EAST KENTUCKY BEING TOO
FAR SOUTH TO BE AFFECTED BY THE QUEBEC SFC LOW/S WRAP AROUND.
HOWEVER...A DEVELOPING STORM WILL START TO LIFT NORTH ALONG THE
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WITH A LARGE PCPN SHIELD LATER THAT
NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE APPEARS TO BE A MODEL TREND
TO PULL THIS SHIELD FURTHER WEST INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY WHERE SOME SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE RIDGES WHILE THE
VALLEYS LIKELY ONLY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN. AS THE LOW PASSES LATER
THAT EVENING...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW OR RAIN CHANCES
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
CWA. UPSLOPE FLOW MAY LINGER SNOW SHOWERS INTO DAY THURSDAY FOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES IN THE FAR EAST. COLDER AIR THEN WILL LIKELY
SPREAD BRIEFLY INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY THAT NIGHT...THOUGH IT WILL
RETREAT JUST AS QUICKLY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WHEN HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST AND RETURN FLOW SENDS MOIST AND WARMER AIR INTO THE
SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY. THIS COULD BE ACTIVATED BY THE NEARBY FRONT
LATER SATURDAY AND INTO THE NIGHT FOR SOME SMALL RAIN CHANCES.
SUNDAY WILL BE A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...THOUGH...AS THE MODELS
DISAGREE AS TO WHETHER THE FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTH THROUGH
KENTUCKY...GFS...OR STAY NORTH...ECMWF. FOR NOW WILL HOLD TO THE
CONSENSUS HERE AND GO WITH A MILD FORECAST...BUT WITH A SMALL CHANCE
FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

THE CR GRID LOAD PROVIDED A DECENT START THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WITH CHANGES MAINLY MADE TO BETTER REFLECT THE SNOW CHANCES
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN ONLY MADE
SOME MINOR RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE CHANGES FOR LOWS EACH NIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 146 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

SOME MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD
LIFT BACK TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY. PRECIPITATION IS
COMING TO AN END...WITH NOT MUCH MORE THAN A SPRINKLE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. CIGS WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK UP BY LATE IN THE
DAY. THE MAIN AVIATION IMPACT WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY EVENING. WIND GUSTS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
COULD REACH 40 KNOTS IN SOME PLACES. WHILE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SOME
INTO MONDAY EVENING...THEY COULD REMAIN GUSTY IN SOME
PLACES...THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...KAS








000
FXUS63 KJKL 240647
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
147 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 146 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

PRECIPITATION IS COMING TO AN END QUICKLY AND SHOULD EXIT THE NORTH
IN THE NEXT HOUR. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE UPDATED TO REMOVE
PRECIPITATION FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. AS IT LOOKS NOW...WAVE
ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY
MONDAY...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA. MOISTURE IS
RATHER THIN AND SHALLOW TO SUPPORT MUCH MORE THAN A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SPRINKLES. THUS...HAVE UPDATED INTO THE MONDAY PERIOD TO INCLUDE
MAINLY AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.
ALSO...WINDS ARE FAIRLY GOOD ALREADY ACROSS THE AREA...WITH WIND
GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS BEING REPORTED AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS. WITH
TEMPERATURES ALREADY AROUND 60...SEE NO REASON FOR THEM TO FALL
OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE GONE WITH STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPS. OUR
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY OCCUR VERY CLOSE TO THE CURRENT READINGS
AS THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY TODAY.
UPDATED THE TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT CURVES TO BETTER REFLECT THESE
TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1140 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH AND HAS PASSED THROUGH EASTERN
KENTUCKY. WITH THIS...THE BULK OF THE DEEP MOISTURE HAS ALSO MOVED OUT
LEAVING LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF
TONIGHT. BECAUSE OF THIS...HAVE LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. PRECIP WILL MOVE BACK THROUGH THE AREA DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY AND HAVE INCREASED THE POPS FOR THE ARRIVAL OF THE
COLD FRONT. FOR THE WINDS...THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT BROUGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS INTO THE AREA AND DECREASED GUSTS THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF TONIGHT. THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
EASTERN 3 COUNTIES EXPIRE FOR HIGH WINDS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THE GRADIENT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
COLD FRONT. THEREFORE...AN WIND ADVISORY WILL STILL BE IN EFFECT
LATER TONIGHT FOR GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TOWARDS MORNING AND INTO THE
DAY ON MONDAY. A NEW ZFP HAS BEEN SENT OUT FOR THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 922 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE THE SWATH OF RAIN
MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AS
WELL. AT THIS HOUR...TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH ARE QUITE WARM AND
HAVE ADJUSTED FOR THE SURGE OF WARM AIR BEHIND WARM FRONT. WITH
THIS...A BREAK IN THE PRECIP BEHIND THE FRONT HAS FORMED AND HAVE
ADDRESSED THIS IN THE NEW ZFP. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT AS WELL ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST AS PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CENTER TRACKS NORTHEAST. MUCH OF THE NIGHT
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE
AREA INTO THE MORNING HOURS. A NEW ZFP HAS BEEN SENT OUT FOR THIS
UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 710 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE EASTERN COUNTIES ACROSS THE AREA ARE GUSTING INTO THE UPPER 40S
AND LOW 50S THIS EVENING WITH A FEW REPORTS OF 52 TO 55 MPH WIND
GUSTS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ON TRACK AS WELL AS OTHER PARAMETERS
THROUGH THE EVENING. ADJUSTED THE WINDS AND WIND GUSTS FOR THE
CONTINUED HIGH WINDS. BECAUSE OF THIS...ISSUED THE WIND ADVISORY
EARLIER FOR HARLAN LETCHER AND PIKE COUNTIES UNTIL 04Z. BY THEN THE
WINDS SHOULD SLACK OFF A BIT BEFORE SWITCHING AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST. WILL CONTINUE THE ORIGINAL WIND ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY STARTING AT 09Z AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
HAVE ISSUED A NEW ZFP AND HWO TO HIGHLIGHT THESE CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE MAPS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SURFACE LOW
CONTINUING TO DEEPEN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AND WILL TRACK NE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A ATTENDANT WARM
FRONT WILL TRACK NE AND ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS EXPECT THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TO NEGATIVELY
TILT WITH THE AXIS GENERALLY TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
SHORTWAVE IS STILL EXPECTED TO COUPLE WITH THE LARGER TROUGH THAT IS
TRACKING EAST OUT OF THE WESTERN U.S. MOVING INTO MONDAY EXPECT A
SURFACE COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THIS
MODELED SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND GOOD MIXING TO
COINCIDE WITH STRONG JET ENERGY ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW
STRONGER JET ENERGY TO MIX DOWN. THEN WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL TRY TO
BUILD EAST MONDAY NIGHT.

GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP THROUGH THE PERIOD EXPECTING PRECIP TO
CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT. DOES LOOK LIKE MODELS DO
WANT TO KEEP SOME POPS AROUND OVERNIGHT SO PLAN TO STICK CLOSE TO
CHANCE/LIKELY RAIN SHOWERS FROM SW TO NE TONIGHT. THEN TRANSITION TO
SLIGHT/CHANCE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY. GIVEN STRONG JET
ENERGY ACROSS THE REGION AND DECENT MIXING EXPECTING STRONGER WINDS
TO BE A ISSUE ESPECIALLY INTO MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING
SLIGHT/CHANCE RAIN SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE CWA MONDAY. GIVEN MUCH OF
THE REGION WILL SEE WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 35 TO 45 MPH MONDAY
MORNING INTO LATE MONDAY. THIS HAS PROMPTED A WIND ADVISORY AREA WIDE
MONDAY MORNING TILL LATE MONDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TRAIL OFF AS
WE MOVE INTO THE EVENING ON MONDAY...THEN COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION AND WEAK HIGH WILL TRY TO BUILD EAST OVERNIGHT
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE MODELS REMAIN IN A STATE OF DISARRAY ALOFT THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF THE FORECAST FOR THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY. HOWEVER THE
GFS AND ECMWF SEEMS TO HAVE CONVERGED ON A SIMILAR SOLUTION WITH THE
NEXT TROUGH EVEN AS THEY FLIPPED THEIR SCENARIOS FROM YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. THEY ALL SWEEP A STRONG...FULL LATITUDE TROUGH THROUGH
THE DEEP SOUTH TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
ABOUND. THE NEXT BATCH OF ENERGY RUNNING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
TROUGH IS THE FEATURE THAT REMAINS IN QUESTION. THIS IS PROGGED TO
ARRIVE IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY LATER WEDNESDAY TAKING THE CORE OF
ITS ENERGY THROUGH KENTUCKY...NOW QUICKEST IN THE NEWLY AMPLIFIED
GFS VERSION WHEN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THE GEM DOES LITTLE TO
SETTLE THIS DISPUTE BY HAVING A MILDER AND SHALLOWER ITERATION OF
THIS TRAILING TROUGH. GIVEN THE SLOWLY GELLING SOLUTION HERE FOR
MIDWEEK WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A GENERAL MODEL BLEND. THE FOLLOW
ALONG TROUGH WILL THEN EASE EAST-NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT LEAVING FAIRLY FAST NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND ABOVE THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ZONAL THROUGH THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE BULK OF THE ENERGY DURING THIS TIME
STAYING TO THE NORTH...CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES. ALSO HERE...WILL
FAVOR A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WEATHER DETAILS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE DRYING OUT THE AREA ON
TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY/S FRONT AND EAST KENTUCKY BEING TOO
FAR SOUTH TO BE AFFECTED BY THE QUEBEC SFC LOW/S WRAP AROUND.
HOWEVER...A DEVELOPING STORM WILL START TO LIFT NORTH ALONG THE
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WITH A LARGE PCPN SHIELD LATER THAT
NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE APPEARS TO BE A MODEL TREND
TO PULL THIS SHIELD FURTHER WEST INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY WHERE SOME SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE RIDGES WHILE THE
VALLEYS LIKELY ONLY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN. AS THE LOW PASSES LATER
THAT EVENING...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW OR RAIN CHANCES
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
CWA. UPSLOPE FLOW MAY LINGER SNOW SHOWERS INTO DAY THURSDAY FOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES IN THE FAR EAST. COLDER AIR THEN WILL LIKELY
SPREAD BRIEFLY INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY THAT NIGHT...THOUGH IT WILL
RETREAT JUST AS QUICKLY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WHEN HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST AND RETURN FLOW SENDS MOIST AND WARMER AIR INTO THE
SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY. THIS COULD BE ACTIVATED BY THE NEARBY FRONT
LATER SATURDAY AND INTO THE NIGHT FOR SOME SMALL RAIN CHANCES.
SUNDAY WILL BE A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...THOUGH...AS THE MODELS
DISAGREE AS TO WHETHER THE FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTH THROUGH
KENTUCKY...GFS...OR STAY NORTH...ECMWF. FOR NOW WILL HOLD TO THE
CONSENSUS HERE AND GO WITH A MILD FORECAST...BUT WITH A SMALL CHANCE
FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

THE CR GRID LOAD PROVIDED A DECENT START THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WITH CHANGES MAINLY MADE TO BETTER REFLECT THE SNOW CHANCES
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN ONLY MADE
SOME MINOR RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE CHANGES FOR LOWS EACH NIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 146 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

SOME MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD
LIFT BACK TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY. PRECIPITATION IS
COMING TO AN END...WITH NOT MUCH MORE THAN A SPRINKLE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. CIGS WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK UP BY LATE IN THE
DAY. THE MAIN AVIATION IMPACT WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY EVENING. WIND GUSTS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
COULD REACH 40 KNOTS IN SOME PLACES. WHILE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SOME
INTO MONDAY EVENING...THEY COULD REMAIN GUSTY IN SOME
PLACES...THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...KAS







000
FXUS63 KJKL 240441
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1141 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1140 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH AND HAS PASSED THROUGH EASTERN
KENTUCKY. WITH THIS...THE BULK OF THE DEEP MOISTURE HAS ALSO MOVED OUT
LEAVING LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF
TONIGHT. BECAUSE OF THIS...HAVE LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. PRECIP WILL MOVE BACK THROUGH THE AREA DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY AND HAVE INCREASED THE POPS FOR THE ARRIVAL OF THE
COLD FRONT. FOR THE WINDS...THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT BROUGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS INTO THE AREA AND DECREASED GUSTS THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF TONIGHT. THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
EASTERN 3 COUNTIES EXPIRE FOR HIGH WINDS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THE GRADIENT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
COLD FRONT. THEREFORE...AN WIND ADVISORY WILL STILL BE IN EFFECT
LATER TONIGHT FOR GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TOWARDS MORNING AND INTO THE
DAY ON MONDAY. A NEW ZFP HAS BEEN SENT OUT FOR THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 922 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE THE SWATH OF RAIN
MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AS
WELL. AT THIS HOUR...TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH ARE QUITE WARM AND
HAVE ADJUSTED FOR THE SURGE OF WARM AIR BEHIND WARM FRONT. WITH
THIS...A BREAK IN THE PRECIP BEHIND THE FRONT HAS FORMED AND HAVE
ADDRESSED THIS IN THE NEW ZFP. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT AS WELL ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST AS PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CENTER TRACKS NORTHEAST. MUCH OF THE NIGHT
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE
AREA INTO THE MORNING HOURS. A NEW ZFP HAS BEEN SENT OUT FOR THIS
UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 710 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE EASTERN COUNTIES ACROSS THE AREA ARE GUSTING INTO THE UPPER 40S
AND LOW 50S THIS EVENING WITH A FEW REPORTS OF 52 TO 55 MPH WIND
GUSTS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ON TRACK AS WELL AS OTHER PARAMETERS
THROUGH THE EVENING. ADJUSTED THE WINDS AND WIND GUSTS FOR THE
CONTINUED HIGH WINDS. BECAUSE OF THIS...ISSUED THE WIND ADVISORY
EARLIER FOR HARLAN LETCHER AND PIKE COUNTIES UNTIL 04Z. BY THEN THE
WINDS SHOULD SLACK OFF A BIT BEFORE SWITCHING AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST. WILL CONTINUE THE ORIGINAL WIND ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY STARTING AT 09Z AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
HAVE ISSUED A NEW ZFP AND HWO TO HIGHLIGHT THESE CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE MAPS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SURFACE LOW
CONTINUING TO DEEPEN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AND WILL TRACK NE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A ATTENDANT WARM
FRONT WILL TRACK NE AND ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS EXPECT THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TO NEGATIVELY
TILT WITH THE AXIS GENERALLY TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
SHORTWAVE IS STILL EXPECTED TO COUPLE WITH THE LARGER TROUGH THAT IS
TRACKING EAST OUT OF THE WESTERN U.S. MOVING INTO MONDAY EXPECT A
SURFACE COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THIS
MODELED SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND GOOD MIXING TO
COINCIDE WITH STRONG JET ENERGY ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW
STRONGER JET ENERGY TO MIX DOWN. THEN WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL TRY TO
BUILD EAST MONDAY NIGHT.

GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP THROUGH THE PERIOD EXPECTING PRECIP TO
CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT. DOES LOOK LIKE MODELS DO
WANT TO KEEP SOME POPS AROUND OVERNIGHT SO PLAN TO STICK CLOSE TO
CHANCE/LIKELY RAIN SHOWERS FROM SW TO NE TONIGHT. THEN TRANSITION TO
SLIGHT/CHANCE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY. GIVEN STRONG JET
ENERGY ACROSS THE REGION AND DECENT MIXING EXPECTING STRONGER WINDS
TO BE A ISSUE ESPECIALLY INTO MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING
SLIGHT/CHANCE RAIN SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE CWA MONDAY. GIVEN MUCH OF
THE REGION WILL SEE WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 35 TO 45 MPH MONDAY
MORNING INTO LATE MONDAY. THIS HAS PROMPTED A WIND ADVISORY AREA WIDE
MONDAY MORNING TILL LATE MONDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TRAIL OFF AS
WE MOVE INTO THE EVENING ON MONDAY...THEN COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION AND WEAK HIGH WILL TRY TO BUILD EAST OVERNIGHT
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE MODELS REMAIN IN A STATE OF DISARRAY ALOFT THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF THE FORECAST FOR THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY. HOWEVER THE
GFS AND ECMWF SEEMS TO HAVE CONVERGED ON A SIMILAR SOLUTION WITH THE
NEXT TROUGH EVEN AS THEY FLIPPED THEIR SCENARIOS FROM YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. THEY ALL SWEEP A STRONG...FULL LATITUDE TROUGH THROUGH
THE DEEP SOUTH TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
ABOUND. THE NEXT BATCH OF ENERGY RUNNING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
TROUGH IS THE FEATURE THAT REMAINS IN QUESTION. THIS IS PROGGED TO
ARRIVE IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY LATER WEDNESDAY TAKING THE CORE OF
ITS ENERGY THROUGH KENTUCKY...NOW QUICKEST IN THE NEWLY AMPLIFIED
GFS VERSION WHEN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THE GEM DOES LITTLE TO
SETTLE THIS DISPUTE BY HAVING A MILDER AND SHALLOWER ITERATION OF
THIS TRAILING TROUGH. GIVEN THE SLOWLY GELLING SOLUTION HERE FOR
MIDWEEK WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A GENERAL MODEL BLEND. THE FOLLOW
ALONG TROUGH WILL THEN EASE EAST-NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT LEAVING FAIRLY FAST NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND ABOVE THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ZONAL THROUGH THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE BULK OF THE ENERGY DURING THIS TIME
STAYING TO THE NORTH...CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES. ALSO HERE...WILL
FAVOR A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WEATHER DETAILS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE DRYING OUT THE AREA ON
TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY/S FRONT AND EAST KENTUCKY BEING TOO
FAR SOUTH TO BE AFFECTED BY THE QUEBEC SFC LOW/S WRAP AROUND.
HOWEVER...A DEVELOPING STORM WILL START TO LIFT NORTH ALONG THE
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WITH A LARGE PCPN SHIELD LATER THAT
NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE APPEARS TO BE A MODEL TREND
TO PULL THIS SHIELD FURTHER WEST INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY WHERE SOME SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE RIDGES WHILE THE
VALLEYS LIKELY ONLY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN. AS THE LOW PASSES LATER
THAT EVENING...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW OR RAIN CHANCES
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
CWA. UPSLOPE FLOW MAY LINGER SNOW SHOWERS INTO DAY THURSDAY FOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES IN THE FAR EAST. COLDER AIR THEN WILL LIKELY
SPREAD BRIEFLY INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY THAT NIGHT...THOUGH IT WILL
RETREAT JUST AS QUICKLY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WHEN HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST AND RETURN FLOW SENDS MOIST AND WARMER AIR INTO THE
SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY. THIS COULD BE ACTIVATED BY THE NEARBY FRONT
LATER SATURDAY AND INTO THE NIGHT FOR SOME SMALL RAIN CHANCES.
SUNDAY WILL BE A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...THOUGH...AS THE MODELS
DISAGREE AS TO WHETHER THE FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTH THROUGH
KENTUCKY...GFS...OR STAY NORTH...ECMWF. FOR NOW WILL HOLD TO THE
CONSENSUS HERE AND GO WITH A MILD FORECAST...BUT WITH A SMALL CHANCE
FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

THE CR GRID LOAD PROVIDED A DECENT START THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WITH CHANGES MAINLY MADE TO BETTER REFLECT THE SNOW CHANCES
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN ONLY MADE
SOME MINOR RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE CHANGES FOR LOWS EACH NIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 710 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SOME IFR
CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT AS CEILINGS LOWER WITH
THE CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY AS WELL AS LOWER VIS WITH THE
SHOWERS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA TOWARDS DAWN. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY OVERNIGHT
IN SOME AREAS AND A FEW SITES MAY KEEP VFR CONDITIONS. WILL BRING VFR
CONDITIONS TO ALL THE TAF SITES AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES DURING
THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME GUSTS
REACHING 30 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO LESSEN TOWARDS THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER







000
FXUS63 KJKL 240441
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1141 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1140 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH AND HAS PASSED THROUGH EASTERN
KENTUCKY. WITH THIS...THE BULK OF THE DEEP MOISTURE HAS ALSO MOVED OUT
LEAVING LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF
TONIGHT. BECAUSE OF THIS...HAVE LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. PRECIP WILL MOVE BACK THROUGH THE AREA DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY AND HAVE INCREASED THE POPS FOR THE ARRIVAL OF THE
COLD FRONT. FOR THE WINDS...THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT BROUGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS INTO THE AREA AND DECREASED GUSTS THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF TONIGHT. THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
EASTERN 3 COUNTIES EXPIRE FOR HIGH WINDS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THE GRADIENT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
COLD FRONT. THEREFORE...AN WIND ADVISORY WILL STILL BE IN EFFECT
LATER TONIGHT FOR GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TOWARDS MORNING AND INTO THE
DAY ON MONDAY. A NEW ZFP HAS BEEN SENT OUT FOR THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 922 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE THE SWATH OF RAIN
MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AS
WELL. AT THIS HOUR...TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH ARE QUITE WARM AND
HAVE ADJUSTED FOR THE SURGE OF WARM AIR BEHIND WARM FRONT. WITH
THIS...A BREAK IN THE PRECIP BEHIND THE FRONT HAS FORMED AND HAVE
ADDRESSED THIS IN THE NEW ZFP. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT AS WELL ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST AS PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CENTER TRACKS NORTHEAST. MUCH OF THE NIGHT
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE
AREA INTO THE MORNING HOURS. A NEW ZFP HAS BEEN SENT OUT FOR THIS
UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 710 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE EASTERN COUNTIES ACROSS THE AREA ARE GUSTING INTO THE UPPER 40S
AND LOW 50S THIS EVENING WITH A FEW REPORTS OF 52 TO 55 MPH WIND
GUSTS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ON TRACK AS WELL AS OTHER PARAMETERS
THROUGH THE EVENING. ADJUSTED THE WINDS AND WIND GUSTS FOR THE
CONTINUED HIGH WINDS. BECAUSE OF THIS...ISSUED THE WIND ADVISORY
EARLIER FOR HARLAN LETCHER AND PIKE COUNTIES UNTIL 04Z. BY THEN THE
WINDS SHOULD SLACK OFF A BIT BEFORE SWITCHING AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST. WILL CONTINUE THE ORIGINAL WIND ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY STARTING AT 09Z AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
HAVE ISSUED A NEW ZFP AND HWO TO HIGHLIGHT THESE CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE MAPS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SURFACE LOW
CONTINUING TO DEEPEN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AND WILL TRACK NE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A ATTENDANT WARM
FRONT WILL TRACK NE AND ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS EXPECT THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TO NEGATIVELY
TILT WITH THE AXIS GENERALLY TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
SHORTWAVE IS STILL EXPECTED TO COUPLE WITH THE LARGER TROUGH THAT IS
TRACKING EAST OUT OF THE WESTERN U.S. MOVING INTO MONDAY EXPECT A
SURFACE COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THIS
MODELED SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND GOOD MIXING TO
COINCIDE WITH STRONG JET ENERGY ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW
STRONGER JET ENERGY TO MIX DOWN. THEN WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL TRY TO
BUILD EAST MONDAY NIGHT.

GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP THROUGH THE PERIOD EXPECTING PRECIP TO
CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT. DOES LOOK LIKE MODELS DO
WANT TO KEEP SOME POPS AROUND OVERNIGHT SO PLAN TO STICK CLOSE TO
CHANCE/LIKELY RAIN SHOWERS FROM SW TO NE TONIGHT. THEN TRANSITION TO
SLIGHT/CHANCE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY. GIVEN STRONG JET
ENERGY ACROSS THE REGION AND DECENT MIXING EXPECTING STRONGER WINDS
TO BE A ISSUE ESPECIALLY INTO MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING
SLIGHT/CHANCE RAIN SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE CWA MONDAY. GIVEN MUCH OF
THE REGION WILL SEE WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 35 TO 45 MPH MONDAY
MORNING INTO LATE MONDAY. THIS HAS PROMPTED A WIND ADVISORY AREA WIDE
MONDAY MORNING TILL LATE MONDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TRAIL OFF AS
WE MOVE INTO THE EVENING ON MONDAY...THEN COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION AND WEAK HIGH WILL TRY TO BUILD EAST OVERNIGHT
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE MODELS REMAIN IN A STATE OF DISARRAY ALOFT THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF THE FORECAST FOR THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY. HOWEVER THE
GFS AND ECMWF SEEMS TO HAVE CONVERGED ON A SIMILAR SOLUTION WITH THE
NEXT TROUGH EVEN AS THEY FLIPPED THEIR SCENARIOS FROM YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. THEY ALL SWEEP A STRONG...FULL LATITUDE TROUGH THROUGH
THE DEEP SOUTH TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
ABOUND. THE NEXT BATCH OF ENERGY RUNNING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
TROUGH IS THE FEATURE THAT REMAINS IN QUESTION. THIS IS PROGGED TO
ARRIVE IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY LATER WEDNESDAY TAKING THE CORE OF
ITS ENERGY THROUGH KENTUCKY...NOW QUICKEST IN THE NEWLY AMPLIFIED
GFS VERSION WHEN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THE GEM DOES LITTLE TO
SETTLE THIS DISPUTE BY HAVING A MILDER AND SHALLOWER ITERATION OF
THIS TRAILING TROUGH. GIVEN THE SLOWLY GELLING SOLUTION HERE FOR
MIDWEEK WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A GENERAL MODEL BLEND. THE FOLLOW
ALONG TROUGH WILL THEN EASE EAST-NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT LEAVING FAIRLY FAST NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND ABOVE THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ZONAL THROUGH THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE BULK OF THE ENERGY DURING THIS TIME
STAYING TO THE NORTH...CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES. ALSO HERE...WILL
FAVOR A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WEATHER DETAILS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE DRYING OUT THE AREA ON
TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY/S FRONT AND EAST KENTUCKY BEING TOO
FAR SOUTH TO BE AFFECTED BY THE QUEBEC SFC LOW/S WRAP AROUND.
HOWEVER...A DEVELOPING STORM WILL START TO LIFT NORTH ALONG THE
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WITH A LARGE PCPN SHIELD LATER THAT
NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE APPEARS TO BE A MODEL TREND
TO PULL THIS SHIELD FURTHER WEST INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY WHERE SOME SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE RIDGES WHILE THE
VALLEYS LIKELY ONLY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN. AS THE LOW PASSES LATER
THAT EVENING...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW OR RAIN CHANCES
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
CWA. UPSLOPE FLOW MAY LINGER SNOW SHOWERS INTO DAY THURSDAY FOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES IN THE FAR EAST. COLDER AIR THEN WILL LIKELY
SPREAD BRIEFLY INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY THAT NIGHT...THOUGH IT WILL
RETREAT JUST AS QUICKLY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WHEN HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST AND RETURN FLOW SENDS MOIST AND WARMER AIR INTO THE
SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY. THIS COULD BE ACTIVATED BY THE NEARBY FRONT
LATER SATURDAY AND INTO THE NIGHT FOR SOME SMALL RAIN CHANCES.
SUNDAY WILL BE A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...THOUGH...AS THE MODELS
DISAGREE AS TO WHETHER THE FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTH THROUGH
KENTUCKY...GFS...OR STAY NORTH...ECMWF. FOR NOW WILL HOLD TO THE
CONSENSUS HERE AND GO WITH A MILD FORECAST...BUT WITH A SMALL CHANCE
FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

THE CR GRID LOAD PROVIDED A DECENT START THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WITH CHANGES MAINLY MADE TO BETTER REFLECT THE SNOW CHANCES
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN ONLY MADE
SOME MINOR RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE CHANGES FOR LOWS EACH NIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 710 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SOME IFR
CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT AS CEILINGS LOWER WITH
THE CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY AS WELL AS LOWER VIS WITH THE
SHOWERS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA TOWARDS DAWN. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY OVERNIGHT
IN SOME AREAS AND A FEW SITES MAY KEEP VFR CONDITIONS. WILL BRING VFR
CONDITIONS TO ALL THE TAF SITES AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES DURING
THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME GUSTS
REACHING 30 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO LESSEN TOWARDS THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER








000
FXUS63 KJKL 240441
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1141 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1140 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH AND HAS PASSED THROUGH EASTERN
KENTUCKY. WITH THIS...THE BULK OF THE DEEP MOISTURE HAS ALSO MOVED OUT
LEAVING LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF
TONIGHT. BECAUSE OF THIS...HAVE LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. PRECIP WILL MOVE BACK THROUGH THE AREA DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY AND HAVE INCREASED THE POPS FOR THE ARRIVAL OF THE
COLD FRONT. FOR THE WINDS...THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT BROUGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS INTO THE AREA AND DECREASED GUSTS THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF TONIGHT. THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
EASTERN 3 COUNTIES EXPIRE FOR HIGH WINDS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THE GRADIENT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
COLD FRONT. THEREFORE...AN WIND ADVISORY WILL STILL BE IN EFFECT
LATER TONIGHT FOR GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TOWARDS MORNING AND INTO THE
DAY ON MONDAY. A NEW ZFP HAS BEEN SENT OUT FOR THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 922 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE THE SWATH OF RAIN
MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AS
WELL. AT THIS HOUR...TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH ARE QUITE WARM AND
HAVE ADJUSTED FOR THE SURGE OF WARM AIR BEHIND WARM FRONT. WITH
THIS...A BREAK IN THE PRECIP BEHIND THE FRONT HAS FORMED AND HAVE
ADDRESSED THIS IN THE NEW ZFP. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT AS WELL ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST AS PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CENTER TRACKS NORTHEAST. MUCH OF THE NIGHT
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE
AREA INTO THE MORNING HOURS. A NEW ZFP HAS BEEN SENT OUT FOR THIS
UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 710 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE EASTERN COUNTIES ACROSS THE AREA ARE GUSTING INTO THE UPPER 40S
AND LOW 50S THIS EVENING WITH A FEW REPORTS OF 52 TO 55 MPH WIND
GUSTS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ON TRACK AS WELL AS OTHER PARAMETERS
THROUGH THE EVENING. ADJUSTED THE WINDS AND WIND GUSTS FOR THE
CONTINUED HIGH WINDS. BECAUSE OF THIS...ISSUED THE WIND ADVISORY
EARLIER FOR HARLAN LETCHER AND PIKE COUNTIES UNTIL 04Z. BY THEN THE
WINDS SHOULD SLACK OFF A BIT BEFORE SWITCHING AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST. WILL CONTINUE THE ORIGINAL WIND ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY STARTING AT 09Z AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
HAVE ISSUED A NEW ZFP AND HWO TO HIGHLIGHT THESE CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE MAPS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SURFACE LOW
CONTINUING TO DEEPEN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AND WILL TRACK NE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A ATTENDANT WARM
FRONT WILL TRACK NE AND ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS EXPECT THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TO NEGATIVELY
TILT WITH THE AXIS GENERALLY TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
SHORTWAVE IS STILL EXPECTED TO COUPLE WITH THE LARGER TROUGH THAT IS
TRACKING EAST OUT OF THE WESTERN U.S. MOVING INTO MONDAY EXPECT A
SURFACE COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THIS
MODELED SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND GOOD MIXING TO
COINCIDE WITH STRONG JET ENERGY ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW
STRONGER JET ENERGY TO MIX DOWN. THEN WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL TRY TO
BUILD EAST MONDAY NIGHT.

GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP THROUGH THE PERIOD EXPECTING PRECIP TO
CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT. DOES LOOK LIKE MODELS DO
WANT TO KEEP SOME POPS AROUND OVERNIGHT SO PLAN TO STICK CLOSE TO
CHANCE/LIKELY RAIN SHOWERS FROM SW TO NE TONIGHT. THEN TRANSITION TO
SLIGHT/CHANCE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY. GIVEN STRONG JET
ENERGY ACROSS THE REGION AND DECENT MIXING EXPECTING STRONGER WINDS
TO BE A ISSUE ESPECIALLY INTO MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING
SLIGHT/CHANCE RAIN SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE CWA MONDAY. GIVEN MUCH OF
THE REGION WILL SEE WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 35 TO 45 MPH MONDAY
MORNING INTO LATE MONDAY. THIS HAS PROMPTED A WIND ADVISORY AREA WIDE
MONDAY MORNING TILL LATE MONDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TRAIL OFF AS
WE MOVE INTO THE EVENING ON MONDAY...THEN COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION AND WEAK HIGH WILL TRY TO BUILD EAST OVERNIGHT
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE MODELS REMAIN IN A STATE OF DISARRAY ALOFT THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF THE FORECAST FOR THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY. HOWEVER THE
GFS AND ECMWF SEEMS TO HAVE CONVERGED ON A SIMILAR SOLUTION WITH THE
NEXT TROUGH EVEN AS THEY FLIPPED THEIR SCENARIOS FROM YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. THEY ALL SWEEP A STRONG...FULL LATITUDE TROUGH THROUGH
THE DEEP SOUTH TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
ABOUND. THE NEXT BATCH OF ENERGY RUNNING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
TROUGH IS THE FEATURE THAT REMAINS IN QUESTION. THIS IS PROGGED TO
ARRIVE IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY LATER WEDNESDAY TAKING THE CORE OF
ITS ENERGY THROUGH KENTUCKY...NOW QUICKEST IN THE NEWLY AMPLIFIED
GFS VERSION WHEN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THE GEM DOES LITTLE TO
SETTLE THIS DISPUTE BY HAVING A MILDER AND SHALLOWER ITERATION OF
THIS TRAILING TROUGH. GIVEN THE SLOWLY GELLING SOLUTION HERE FOR
MIDWEEK WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A GENERAL MODEL BLEND. THE FOLLOW
ALONG TROUGH WILL THEN EASE EAST-NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT LEAVING FAIRLY FAST NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND ABOVE THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ZONAL THROUGH THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE BULK OF THE ENERGY DURING THIS TIME
STAYING TO THE NORTH...CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES. ALSO HERE...WILL
FAVOR A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WEATHER DETAILS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE DRYING OUT THE AREA ON
TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY/S FRONT AND EAST KENTUCKY BEING TOO
FAR SOUTH TO BE AFFECTED BY THE QUEBEC SFC LOW/S WRAP AROUND.
HOWEVER...A DEVELOPING STORM WILL START TO LIFT NORTH ALONG THE
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WITH A LARGE PCPN SHIELD LATER THAT
NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE APPEARS TO BE A MODEL TREND
TO PULL THIS SHIELD FURTHER WEST INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY WHERE SOME SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE RIDGES WHILE THE
VALLEYS LIKELY ONLY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN. AS THE LOW PASSES LATER
THAT EVENING...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW OR RAIN CHANCES
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
CWA. UPSLOPE FLOW MAY LINGER SNOW SHOWERS INTO DAY THURSDAY FOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES IN THE FAR EAST. COLDER AIR THEN WILL LIKELY
SPREAD BRIEFLY INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY THAT NIGHT...THOUGH IT WILL
RETREAT JUST AS QUICKLY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WHEN HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST AND RETURN FLOW SENDS MOIST AND WARMER AIR INTO THE
SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY. THIS COULD BE ACTIVATED BY THE NEARBY FRONT
LATER SATURDAY AND INTO THE NIGHT FOR SOME SMALL RAIN CHANCES.
SUNDAY WILL BE A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...THOUGH...AS THE MODELS
DISAGREE AS TO WHETHER THE FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTH THROUGH
KENTUCKY...GFS...OR STAY NORTH...ECMWF. FOR NOW WILL HOLD TO THE
CONSENSUS HERE AND GO WITH A MILD FORECAST...BUT WITH A SMALL CHANCE
FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

THE CR GRID LOAD PROVIDED A DECENT START THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WITH CHANGES MAINLY MADE TO BETTER REFLECT THE SNOW CHANCES
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN ONLY MADE
SOME MINOR RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE CHANGES FOR LOWS EACH NIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 710 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SOME IFR
CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT AS CEILINGS LOWER WITH
THE CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY AS WELL AS LOWER VIS WITH THE
SHOWERS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA TOWARDS DAWN. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY OVERNIGHT
IN SOME AREAS AND A FEW SITES MAY KEEP VFR CONDITIONS. WILL BRING VFR
CONDITIONS TO ALL THE TAF SITES AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES DURING
THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME GUSTS
REACHING 30 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO LESSEN TOWARDS THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER








000
FXUS63 KJKL 240441
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1141 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1140 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH AND HAS PASSED THROUGH EASTERN
KENTUCKY. WITH THIS...THE BULK OF THE DEEP MOISTURE HAS ALSO MOVED OUT
LEAVING LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF
TONIGHT. BECAUSE OF THIS...HAVE LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. PRECIP WILL MOVE BACK THROUGH THE AREA DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY AND HAVE INCREASED THE POPS FOR THE ARRIVAL OF THE
COLD FRONT. FOR THE WINDS...THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT BROUGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS INTO THE AREA AND DECREASED GUSTS THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF TONIGHT. THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
EASTERN 3 COUNTIES EXPIRE FOR HIGH WINDS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THE GRADIENT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
COLD FRONT. THEREFORE...AN WIND ADVISORY WILL STILL BE IN EFFECT
LATER TONIGHT FOR GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TOWARDS MORNING AND INTO THE
DAY ON MONDAY. A NEW ZFP HAS BEEN SENT OUT FOR THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 922 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE THE SWATH OF RAIN
MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AS
WELL. AT THIS HOUR...TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH ARE QUITE WARM AND
HAVE ADJUSTED FOR THE SURGE OF WARM AIR BEHIND WARM FRONT. WITH
THIS...A BREAK IN THE PRECIP BEHIND THE FRONT HAS FORMED AND HAVE
ADDRESSED THIS IN THE NEW ZFP. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT AS WELL ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST AS PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CENTER TRACKS NORTHEAST. MUCH OF THE NIGHT
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE
AREA INTO THE MORNING HOURS. A NEW ZFP HAS BEEN SENT OUT FOR THIS
UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 710 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE EASTERN COUNTIES ACROSS THE AREA ARE GUSTING INTO THE UPPER 40S
AND LOW 50S THIS EVENING WITH A FEW REPORTS OF 52 TO 55 MPH WIND
GUSTS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ON TRACK AS WELL AS OTHER PARAMETERS
THROUGH THE EVENING. ADJUSTED THE WINDS AND WIND GUSTS FOR THE
CONTINUED HIGH WINDS. BECAUSE OF THIS...ISSUED THE WIND ADVISORY
EARLIER FOR HARLAN LETCHER AND PIKE COUNTIES UNTIL 04Z. BY THEN THE
WINDS SHOULD SLACK OFF A BIT BEFORE SWITCHING AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST. WILL CONTINUE THE ORIGINAL WIND ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY STARTING AT 09Z AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
HAVE ISSUED A NEW ZFP AND HWO TO HIGHLIGHT THESE CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE MAPS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SURFACE LOW
CONTINUING TO DEEPEN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AND WILL TRACK NE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A ATTENDANT WARM
FRONT WILL TRACK NE AND ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS EXPECT THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TO NEGATIVELY
TILT WITH THE AXIS GENERALLY TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
SHORTWAVE IS STILL EXPECTED TO COUPLE WITH THE LARGER TROUGH THAT IS
TRACKING EAST OUT OF THE WESTERN U.S. MOVING INTO MONDAY EXPECT A
SURFACE COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THIS
MODELED SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND GOOD MIXING TO
COINCIDE WITH STRONG JET ENERGY ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW
STRONGER JET ENERGY TO MIX DOWN. THEN WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL TRY TO
BUILD EAST MONDAY NIGHT.

GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP THROUGH THE PERIOD EXPECTING PRECIP TO
CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT. DOES LOOK LIKE MODELS DO
WANT TO KEEP SOME POPS AROUND OVERNIGHT SO PLAN TO STICK CLOSE TO
CHANCE/LIKELY RAIN SHOWERS FROM SW TO NE TONIGHT. THEN TRANSITION TO
SLIGHT/CHANCE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY. GIVEN STRONG JET
ENERGY ACROSS THE REGION AND DECENT MIXING EXPECTING STRONGER WINDS
TO BE A ISSUE ESPECIALLY INTO MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING
SLIGHT/CHANCE RAIN SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE CWA MONDAY. GIVEN MUCH OF
THE REGION WILL SEE WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 35 TO 45 MPH MONDAY
MORNING INTO LATE MONDAY. THIS HAS PROMPTED A WIND ADVISORY AREA WIDE
MONDAY MORNING TILL LATE MONDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TRAIL OFF AS
WE MOVE INTO THE EVENING ON MONDAY...THEN COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION AND WEAK HIGH WILL TRY TO BUILD EAST OVERNIGHT
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE MODELS REMAIN IN A STATE OF DISARRAY ALOFT THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF THE FORECAST FOR THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY. HOWEVER THE
GFS AND ECMWF SEEMS TO HAVE CONVERGED ON A SIMILAR SOLUTION WITH THE
NEXT TROUGH EVEN AS THEY FLIPPED THEIR SCENARIOS FROM YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. THEY ALL SWEEP A STRONG...FULL LATITUDE TROUGH THROUGH
THE DEEP SOUTH TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
ABOUND. THE NEXT BATCH OF ENERGY RUNNING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
TROUGH IS THE FEATURE THAT REMAINS IN QUESTION. THIS IS PROGGED TO
ARRIVE IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY LATER WEDNESDAY TAKING THE CORE OF
ITS ENERGY THROUGH KENTUCKY...NOW QUICKEST IN THE NEWLY AMPLIFIED
GFS VERSION WHEN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THE GEM DOES LITTLE TO
SETTLE THIS DISPUTE BY HAVING A MILDER AND SHALLOWER ITERATION OF
THIS TRAILING TROUGH. GIVEN THE SLOWLY GELLING SOLUTION HERE FOR
MIDWEEK WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A GENERAL MODEL BLEND. THE FOLLOW
ALONG TROUGH WILL THEN EASE EAST-NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT LEAVING FAIRLY FAST NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND ABOVE THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ZONAL THROUGH THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE BULK OF THE ENERGY DURING THIS TIME
STAYING TO THE NORTH...CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES. ALSO HERE...WILL
FAVOR A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WEATHER DETAILS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE DRYING OUT THE AREA ON
TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY/S FRONT AND EAST KENTUCKY BEING TOO
FAR SOUTH TO BE AFFECTED BY THE QUEBEC SFC LOW/S WRAP AROUND.
HOWEVER...A DEVELOPING STORM WILL START TO LIFT NORTH ALONG THE
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WITH A LARGE PCPN SHIELD LATER THAT
NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE APPEARS TO BE A MODEL TREND
TO PULL THIS SHIELD FURTHER WEST INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY WHERE SOME SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE RIDGES WHILE THE
VALLEYS LIKELY ONLY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN. AS THE LOW PASSES LATER
THAT EVENING...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW OR RAIN CHANCES
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
CWA. UPSLOPE FLOW MAY LINGER SNOW SHOWERS INTO DAY THURSDAY FOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES IN THE FAR EAST. COLDER AIR THEN WILL LIKELY
SPREAD BRIEFLY INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY THAT NIGHT...THOUGH IT WILL
RETREAT JUST AS QUICKLY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WHEN HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST AND RETURN FLOW SENDS MOIST AND WARMER AIR INTO THE
SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY. THIS COULD BE ACTIVATED BY THE NEARBY FRONT
LATER SATURDAY AND INTO THE NIGHT FOR SOME SMALL RAIN CHANCES.
SUNDAY WILL BE A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...THOUGH...AS THE MODELS
DISAGREE AS TO WHETHER THE FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTH THROUGH
KENTUCKY...GFS...OR STAY NORTH...ECMWF. FOR NOW WILL HOLD TO THE
CONSENSUS HERE AND GO WITH A MILD FORECAST...BUT WITH A SMALL CHANCE
FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

THE CR GRID LOAD PROVIDED A DECENT START THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WITH CHANGES MAINLY MADE TO BETTER REFLECT THE SNOW CHANCES
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN ONLY MADE
SOME MINOR RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE CHANGES FOR LOWS EACH NIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 710 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SOME IFR
CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT AS CEILINGS LOWER WITH
THE CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY AS WELL AS LOWER VIS WITH THE
SHOWERS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA TOWARDS DAWN. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY OVERNIGHT
IN SOME AREAS AND A FEW SITES MAY KEEP VFR CONDITIONS. WILL BRING VFR
CONDITIONS TO ALL THE TAF SITES AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES DURING
THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME GUSTS
REACHING 30 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO LESSEN TOWARDS THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER







000
FXUS63 KJKL 240223
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
923 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 922 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE THE SWATH OF RAIN
MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AS
WELL. AT THIS HOUR...TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH ARE QUITE WARM AND
HAVE ADJUSTED FOR THE SURGE OF WARM AIR BEHIND WARM FRONT. WITH
THIS...A BREAK IN THE PRECIP BEHIND THE FRONT HAS FORMED AND HAVE
ADDRESSED THIS IN THE NEW ZFP. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT AS WELL ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST AS PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CENTER TRACKS NORTHEAST. MUCH OF THE NIGHT
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE
AREA INTO THE MORNING HOURS. A NEW ZFP HAS BEEN SENT OUT FOR THIS
UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 710 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE EASTERN COUNTIES ACROSS THE AREA ARE GUSTING INTO THE UPPER 40S
AND LOW 50S THIS EVENING WITH A FEW REPORTS OF 52 TO 55 MPH WIND
GUSTS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ON TRACK AS WELL AS OTHER PARAMETERS
THROUGH THE EVENING. ADJUSTED THE WINDS AND WIND GUSTS FOR THE
CONTINUED HIGH WINDS. BECAUSE OF THIS...ISSUED THE WIND ADVISORY
EARLIER FOR HARLAN LETCHER AND PIKE COUNTIES UNTIL 04Z. BY THEN THE
WINDS SHOULD SLACK OFF A BIT BEFORE SWITCHING AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST. WILL CONTINUE THE ORIGINAL WIND ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY STARTING AT 09Z AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
HAVE ISSUED A NEW ZFP AND HWO TO HIGHLIGHT THESE CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE MAPS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SURFACE LOW
CONTINUING TO DEEPEN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AND WILL TRACK NE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A ATTENDANT WARM
FRONT WILL TRACK NE AND ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS EXPECT THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TO NEGATIVELY
TILT WITH THE AXIS GENERALLY TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
SHORTWAVE IS STILL EXPECTED TO COUPLE WITH THE LARGER TROUGH THAT IS
TRACKING EAST OUT OF THE WESTERN U.S. MOVING INTO MONDAY EXPECT A
SURFACE COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THIS
MODELED SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND GOOD MIXING TO
COINCIDE WITH STRONG JET ENERGY ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW
STRONGER JET ENERGY TO MIX DOWN. THEN WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL TRY TO
BUILD EAST MONDAY NIGHT.

GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP THROUGH THE PERIOD EXPECTING PRECIP TO
CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT. DOES LOOK LIKE MODELS DO
WANT TO KEEP SOME POPS AROUND OVERNIGHT SO PLAN TO STICK CLOSE TO
CHANCE/LIKELY RAIN SHOWERS FROM SW TO NE TONIGHT. THEN TRANSITION TO
SLIGHT/CHANCE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY. GIVEN STRONG JET
ENERGY ACROSS THE REGION AND DECENT MIXING EXPECTING STRONGER WINDS
TO BE A ISSUE ESPECIALLY INTO MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING
SLIGHT/CHANCE RAIN SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE CWA MONDAY. GIVEN MUCH OF
THE REGION WILL SEE WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 35 TO 45 MPH MONDAY
MORNING INTO LATE MONDAY. THIS HAS PROMPTED A WIND ADVISORY AREA WIDE
MONDAY MORNING TILL LATE MONDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TRAIL OFF AS
WE MOVE INTO THE EVENING ON MONDAY...THEN COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION AND WEAK HIGH WILL TRY TO BUILD EAST OVERNIGHT
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE MODELS REMAIN IN A STATE OF DISARRAY ALOFT THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF THE FORECAST FOR THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY. HOWEVER THE
GFS AND ECMWF SEEMS TO HAVE CONVERGED ON A SIMILAR SOLUTION WITH THE
NEXT TROUGH EVEN AS THEY FLIPPED THEIR SCENARIOS FROM YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. THEY ALL SWEEP A STRONG...FULL LATITUDE TROUGH THROUGH
THE DEEP SOUTH TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
ABOUND. THE NEXT BATCH OF ENERGY RUNNING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
TROUGH IS THE FEATURE THAT REMAINS IN QUESTION. THIS IS PROGGED TO
ARRIVE IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY LATER WEDNESDAY TAKING THE CORE OF
ITS ENERGY THROUGH KENTUCKY...NOW QUICKEST IN THE NEWLY AMPLIFIED
GFS VERSION WHEN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THE GEM DOES LITTLE TO
SETTLE THIS DISPUTE BY HAVING A MILDER AND SHALLOWER ITERATION OF
THIS TRAILING TROUGH. GIVEN THE SLOWLY GELLING SOLUTION HERE FOR
MIDWEEK WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A GENERAL MODEL BLEND. THE FOLLOW
ALONG TROUGH WILL THEN EASE EAST-NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT LEAVING FAIRLY FAST NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND ABOVE THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ZONAL THROUGH THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE BULK OF THE ENERGY DURING THIS TIME
STAYING TO THE NORTH...CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES. ALSO HERE...WILL
FAVOR A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WEATHER DETAILS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE DRYING OUT THE AREA ON
TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY/S FRONT AND EAST KENTUCKY BEING TOO
FAR SOUTH TO BE AFFECTED BY THE QUEBEC SFC LOW/S WRAP AROUND.
HOWEVER...A DEVELOPING STORM WILL START TO LIFT NORTH ALONG THE
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WITH A LARGE PCPN SHIELD LATER THAT
NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE APPEARS TO BE A MODEL TREND
TO PULL THIS SHIELD FURTHER WEST INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY WHERE SOME SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE RIDGES WHILE THE
VALLEYS LIKELY ONLY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN. AS THE LOW PASSES LATER
THAT EVENING...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW OR RAIN CHANCES
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
CWA. UPSLOPE FLOW MAY LINGER SNOW SHOWERS INTO DAY THURSDAY FOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES IN THE FAR EAST. COLDER AIR THEN WILL LIKELY
SPREAD BRIEFLY INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY THAT NIGHT...THOUGH IT WILL
RETREAT JUST AS QUICKLY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WHEN HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST AND RETURN FLOW SENDS MOIST AND WARMER AIR INTO THE
SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY. THIS COULD BE ACTIVATED BY THE NEARBY FRONT
LATER SATURDAY AND INTO THE NIGHT FOR SOME SMALL RAIN CHANCES.
SUNDAY WILL BE A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...THOUGH...AS THE MODELS
DISAGREE AS TO WHETHER THE FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTH THROUGH
KENTUCKY...GFS...OR STAY NORTH...ECMWF. FOR NOW WILL HOLD TO THE
CONSENSUS HERE AND GO WITH A MILD FORECAST...BUT WITH A SMALL CHANCE
FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

THE CR GRID LOAD PROVIDED A DECENT START THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WITH CHANGES MAINLY MADE TO BETTER REFLECT THE SNOW CHANCES
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN ONLY MADE
SOME MINOR RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE CHANGES FOR LOWS EACH NIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 710 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SOME IFR
CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT AS CEILINGS LOWER WITH
THE CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY AS WELL AS LOWER VIS WITH THE
SHOWERS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA TOWARDS DAWN. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY OVERNIGHT
IN SOME AREAS AND A FEW SITES MAY KEEP VFR CONDITIONS. WILL BRING VFR
CONDITIONS TO ALL THE TAF SITES AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES DURING
THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME GUSTS
REACHING 30 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO LESSEN TOWARDS THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ088-118-120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER







000
FXUS63 KJKL 240223
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
923 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 922 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE THE SWATH OF RAIN
MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AS
WELL. AT THIS HOUR...TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH ARE QUITE WARM AND
HAVE ADJUSTED FOR THE SURGE OF WARM AIR BEHIND WARM FRONT. WITH
THIS...A BREAK IN THE PRECIP BEHIND THE FRONT HAS FORMED AND HAVE
ADDRESSED THIS IN THE NEW ZFP. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT AS WELL ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST AS PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CENTER TRACKS NORTHEAST. MUCH OF THE NIGHT
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE
AREA INTO THE MORNING HOURS. A NEW ZFP HAS BEEN SENT OUT FOR THIS
UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 710 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE EASTERN COUNTIES ACROSS THE AREA ARE GUSTING INTO THE UPPER 40S
AND LOW 50S THIS EVENING WITH A FEW REPORTS OF 52 TO 55 MPH WIND
GUSTS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ON TRACK AS WELL AS OTHER PARAMETERS
THROUGH THE EVENING. ADJUSTED THE WINDS AND WIND GUSTS FOR THE
CONTINUED HIGH WINDS. BECAUSE OF THIS...ISSUED THE WIND ADVISORY
EARLIER FOR HARLAN LETCHER AND PIKE COUNTIES UNTIL 04Z. BY THEN THE
WINDS SHOULD SLACK OFF A BIT BEFORE SWITCHING AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST. WILL CONTINUE THE ORIGINAL WIND ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY STARTING AT 09Z AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
HAVE ISSUED A NEW ZFP AND HWO TO HIGHLIGHT THESE CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE MAPS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SURFACE LOW
CONTINUING TO DEEPEN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AND WILL TRACK NE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A ATTENDANT WARM
FRONT WILL TRACK NE AND ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS EXPECT THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TO NEGATIVELY
TILT WITH THE AXIS GENERALLY TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
SHORTWAVE IS STILL EXPECTED TO COUPLE WITH THE LARGER TROUGH THAT IS
TRACKING EAST OUT OF THE WESTERN U.S. MOVING INTO MONDAY EXPECT A
SURFACE COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THIS
MODELED SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND GOOD MIXING TO
COINCIDE WITH STRONG JET ENERGY ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW
STRONGER JET ENERGY TO MIX DOWN. THEN WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL TRY TO
BUILD EAST MONDAY NIGHT.

GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP THROUGH THE PERIOD EXPECTING PRECIP TO
CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT. DOES LOOK LIKE MODELS DO
WANT TO KEEP SOME POPS AROUND OVERNIGHT SO PLAN TO STICK CLOSE TO
CHANCE/LIKELY RAIN SHOWERS FROM SW TO NE TONIGHT. THEN TRANSITION TO
SLIGHT/CHANCE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY. GIVEN STRONG JET
ENERGY ACROSS THE REGION AND DECENT MIXING EXPECTING STRONGER WINDS
TO BE A ISSUE ESPECIALLY INTO MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING
SLIGHT/CHANCE RAIN SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE CWA MONDAY. GIVEN MUCH OF
THE REGION WILL SEE WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 35 TO 45 MPH MONDAY
MORNING INTO LATE MONDAY. THIS HAS PROMPTED A WIND ADVISORY AREA WIDE
MONDAY MORNING TILL LATE MONDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TRAIL OFF AS
WE MOVE INTO THE EVENING ON MONDAY...THEN COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION AND WEAK HIGH WILL TRY TO BUILD EAST OVERNIGHT
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE MODELS REMAIN IN A STATE OF DISARRAY ALOFT THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF THE FORECAST FOR THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY. HOWEVER THE
GFS AND ECMWF SEEMS TO HAVE CONVERGED ON A SIMILAR SOLUTION WITH THE
NEXT TROUGH EVEN AS THEY FLIPPED THEIR SCENARIOS FROM YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. THEY ALL SWEEP A STRONG...FULL LATITUDE TROUGH THROUGH
THE DEEP SOUTH TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
ABOUND. THE NEXT BATCH OF ENERGY RUNNING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
TROUGH IS THE FEATURE THAT REMAINS IN QUESTION. THIS IS PROGGED TO
ARRIVE IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY LATER WEDNESDAY TAKING THE CORE OF
ITS ENERGY THROUGH KENTUCKY...NOW QUICKEST IN THE NEWLY AMPLIFIED
GFS VERSION WHEN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THE GEM DOES LITTLE TO
SETTLE THIS DISPUTE BY HAVING A MILDER AND SHALLOWER ITERATION OF
THIS TRAILING TROUGH. GIVEN THE SLOWLY GELLING SOLUTION HERE FOR
MIDWEEK WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A GENERAL MODEL BLEND. THE FOLLOW
ALONG TROUGH WILL THEN EASE EAST-NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT LEAVING FAIRLY FAST NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND ABOVE THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ZONAL THROUGH THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE BULK OF THE ENERGY DURING THIS TIME
STAYING TO THE NORTH...CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES. ALSO HERE...WILL
FAVOR A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WEATHER DETAILS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE DRYING OUT THE AREA ON
TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY/S FRONT AND EAST KENTUCKY BEING TOO
FAR SOUTH TO BE AFFECTED BY THE QUEBEC SFC LOW/S WRAP AROUND.
HOWEVER...A DEVELOPING STORM WILL START TO LIFT NORTH ALONG THE
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WITH A LARGE PCPN SHIELD LATER THAT
NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE APPEARS TO BE A MODEL TREND
TO PULL THIS SHIELD FURTHER WEST INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY WHERE SOME SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE RIDGES WHILE THE
VALLEYS LIKELY ONLY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN. AS THE LOW PASSES LATER
THAT EVENING...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW OR RAIN CHANCES
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
CWA. UPSLOPE FLOW MAY LINGER SNOW SHOWERS INTO DAY THURSDAY FOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES IN THE FAR EAST. COLDER AIR THEN WILL LIKELY
SPREAD BRIEFLY INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY THAT NIGHT...THOUGH IT WILL
RETREAT JUST AS QUICKLY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WHEN HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST AND RETURN FLOW SENDS MOIST AND WARMER AIR INTO THE
SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY. THIS COULD BE ACTIVATED BY THE NEARBY FRONT
LATER SATURDAY AND INTO THE NIGHT FOR SOME SMALL RAIN CHANCES.
SUNDAY WILL BE A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...THOUGH...AS THE MODELS
DISAGREE AS TO WHETHER THE FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTH THROUGH
KENTUCKY...GFS...OR STAY NORTH...ECMWF. FOR NOW WILL HOLD TO THE
CONSENSUS HERE AND GO WITH A MILD FORECAST...BUT WITH A SMALL CHANCE
FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

THE CR GRID LOAD PROVIDED A DECENT START THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WITH CHANGES MAINLY MADE TO BETTER REFLECT THE SNOW CHANCES
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN ONLY MADE
SOME MINOR RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE CHANGES FOR LOWS EACH NIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 710 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SOME IFR
CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT AS CEILINGS LOWER WITH
THE CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY AS WELL AS LOWER VIS WITH THE
SHOWERS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA TOWARDS DAWN. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY OVERNIGHT
IN SOME AREAS AND A FEW SITES MAY KEEP VFR CONDITIONS. WILL BRING VFR
CONDITIONS TO ALL THE TAF SITES AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES DURING
THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME GUSTS
REACHING 30 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO LESSEN TOWARDS THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ088-118-120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER








000
FXUS63 KJKL 240010
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
710 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 710 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE EASTERN COUNTIES ACROSS THE AREA ARE GUSTING INTO THE UPPER 40S
AND LOW 50S THIS EVENING WITH A FEW REPORTS OF 52 TO 55 MPH WIND
GUSTS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ON TRACK AS WELL AS OTHER PARAMETERS
THROUGH THE EVENING. ADJUSTED THE WINDS AND WIND GUSTS FOR THE
CONTINUED HIGH WINDS. BECAUSE OF THIS...ISSUED THE WIND ADVISORY
EARLIER FOR HARLAN LETCHER AND PIKE COUNTIES UNTIL 04Z. BY THEN THE
WINDS SHOULD SLACK OFF A BIT BEFORE SWITCHING AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST. WILL CONTINUE THE ORIGINAL WIND ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY STARTING AT 09Z AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
HAVE ISSUED A NEW ZFP AND HWO TO HIGHLIGHT THESE CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE MAPS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SURFACE LOW
CONTINUING TO DEEPEN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AND WILL TRACK NE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A ATTENDANT WARM
FRONT WILL TRACK NE AND ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS EXPECT THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TO NEGATIVELY
TILT WITH THE AXIS GENERALLY TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
SHORTWAVE IS STILL EXPECTED TO COUPLE WITH THE LARGER TROUGH THAT IS
TRACKING EAST OUT OF THE WESTERN U.S. MOVING INTO MONDAY EXPECT A
SURFACE COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THIS
MODELED SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND GOOD MIXING TO
COINCIDE WITH STRONG JET ENERGY ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW
STRONGER JET ENERGY TO MIX DOWN. THEN WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL TRY TO
BUILD EAST MONDAY NIGHT.

GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP THROUGH THE PERIOD EXPECTING PRECIP TO
CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT. DOES LOOK LIKE MODELS DO
WANT TO KEEP SOME POPS AROUND OVERNIGHT SO PLAN TO STICK CLOSE TO
CHANCE/LIKELY RAIN SHOWERS FROM SW TO NE TONIGHT. THEN TRANSITION TO
SLIGHT/CHANCE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY. GIVEN STRONG JET
ENERGY ACROSS THE REGION AND DECENT MIXING EXPECTING STRONGER WINDS
TO BE A ISSUE ESPECIALLY INTO MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING
SLIGHT/CHANCE RAIN SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE CWA MONDAY. GIVEN MUCH OF
THE REGION WILL SEE WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 35 TO 45 MPH MONDAY
MORNING INTO LATE MONDAY. THIS HAS PROMPTED A WIND ADVISORY AREA WIDE
MONDAY MORNING TILL LATE MONDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TRAIL OFF AS
WE MOVE INTO THE EVENING ON MONDAY...THEN COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION AND WEAK HIGH WILL TRY TO BUILD EAST OVERNIGHT
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE MODELS REMAIN IN A STATE OF DISARRAY ALOFT THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF THE FORECAST FOR THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY. HOWEVER THE
GFS AND ECMWF SEEMS TO HAVE CONVERGED ON A SIMILAR SOLUTION WITH THE
NEXT TROUGH EVEN AS THEY FLIPPED THEIR SCENARIOS FROM YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. THEY ALL SWEEP A STRONG...FULL LATITUDE TROUGH THROUGH
THE DEEP SOUTH TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
ABOUND. THE NEXT BATCH OF ENERGY RUNNING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
TROUGH IS THE FEATURE THAT REMAINS IN QUESTION. THIS IS PROGGED TO
ARRIVE IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY LATER WEDNESDAY TAKING THE CORE OF
ITS ENERGY THROUGH KENTUCKY...NOW QUICKEST IN THE NEWLY AMPLIFIED
GFS VERSION WHEN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THE GEM DOES LITTLE TO
SETTLE THIS DISPUTE BY HAVING A MILDER AND SHALLOWER ITERATION OF
THIS TRAILING TROUGH. GIVEN THE SLOWLY GELLING SOLUTION HERE FOR
MIDWEEK WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A GENERAL MODEL BLEND. THE FOLLOW
ALONG TROUGH WILL THEN EASE EAST-NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT LEAVING FAIRLY FAST NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND ABOVE THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ZONAL THROUGH THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE BULK OF THE ENERGY DURING THIS TIME
STAYING TO THE NORTH...CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES. ALSO HERE...WILL
FAVOR A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WEATHER DETAILS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE DRYING OUT THE AREA ON
TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY/S FRONT AND EAST KENTUCKY BEING TOO
FAR SOUTH TO BE AFFECTED BY THE QUEBEC SFC LOW/S WRAP AROUND.
HOWEVER...A DEVELOPING STORM WILL START TO LIFT NORTH ALONG THE
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WITH A LARGE PCPN SHIELD LATER THAT
NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE APPEARS TO BE A MODEL TREND
TO PULL THIS SHIELD FURTHER WEST INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY WHERE SOME SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE RIDGES WHILE THE
VALLEYS LIKELY ONLY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN. AS THE LOW PASSES LATER
THAT EVENING...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW OR RAIN CHANCES
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
CWA. UPSLOPE FLOW MAY LINGER SNOW SHOWERS INTO DAY THURSDAY FOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES IN THE FAR EAST. COLDER AIR THEN WILL LIKELY
SPREAD BRIEFLY INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY THAT NIGHT...THOUGH IT WILL
RETREAT JUST AS QUICKLY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WHEN HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST AND RETURN FLOW SENDS MOIST AND WARMER AIR INTO THE
SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY. THIS COULD BE ACTIVATED BY THE NEARBY FRONT
LATER SATURDAY AND INTO THE NIGHT FOR SOME SMALL RAIN CHANCES.
SUNDAY WILL BE A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...THOUGH...AS THE MODELS
DISAGREE AS TO WHETHER THE FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTH THROUGH
KENTUCKY...GFS...OR STAY NORTH...ECMWF. FOR NOW WILL HOLD TO THE
CONSENSUS HERE AND GO WITH A MILD FORECAST...BUT WITH A SMALL CHANCE
FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

THE CR GRID LOAD PROVIDED A DECENT START THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WITH CHANGES MAINLY MADE TO BETTER REFLECT THE SNOW CHANCES
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN ONLY MADE
SOME MINOR RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE CHANGES FOR LOWS EACH NIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 710 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SOME IFR
CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT AS CEILINGS LOWER WITH
THE CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY AS WELL AS LOWER VIS WITH THE
SHOWERS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA TOWARDS DAWN. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY OVERNIGHT
IN SOME AREAS AND A FEW SITES MAY KEEP VFR CONDITIONS. WILL BRING VFR
CONDITIONS TO ALL THE TAF SITES AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES DURING
THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME GUSTS
REACHING 30 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO LESSEN TOWARDS THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ088-118-120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER








000
FXUS63 KJKL 232023
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
323 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE MAPS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SURFACE LOW
CONTINUING TO DEEPEN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AND WILL TRACK NE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A ATTENDANT WARM
FRONT WILL TRACK NE AND ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS EXPECT THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TO NEGATIVELY
TILT WITH THE AXIS GENERALLY TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
SHORTWAVE IS STILL EXPECTED TO COUPLE WITH THE LARGER TROUGH THAT IS
TRACKING EAST OUT OF THE WESTERN U.S. MOVING INTO MONDAY EXPECT A
SURFACE COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THIS
MODELED SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND GOOD MIXING TO
COINCIDE WITH STRONG JET ENERGY ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW
STRONGER JET ENERGY TO MIX DOWN. THEN WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL TRY TO
BUILD EAST MONDAY NIGHT.

GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP THROUGH THE PERIOD EXPECTING PRECIP TO
CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT. DOES LOOK LIKE MODELS DO
WANT TO KEEP SOME POPS AROUND OVERNIGHT SO PLAN TO STICK CLOSE TO
CHANCE/LIKELY RAIN SHOWERS FROM SW TO NE TONIGHT. THEN TRANSITION TO
SLIGHT/CHANCE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY. GIVEN STRONG JET
ENERGY ACROSS THE REGION AND DECENT MIXING EXPECTING STRONGER WINDS
TO BE A ISSUE ESPECIALLY INTO MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING
SLIGHT/CHANCE RAIN SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE CWA MONDAY. GIVEN MUCH OF
THE REGION WILL SEE WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 35 TO 45 MPH MONDAY
MORNING INTO LATE MONDAY. THIS HAS PROMPTED A WIND ADVISORY AREA WIDE
MONDAY MORNING TILL LATE MONDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TRAIL OFF AS
WE MOVE INTO THE EVENING ON MONDAY...THEN COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION AND WEAK HIGH WILL TRY TO BUILD EAST OVERNIGHT
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE MODELS REMAIN IN A STATE OF DISARRAY ALOFT THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF THE FORECAST FOR THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY. HOWEVER THE
GFS AND ECMWF SEEMS TO HAVE CONVERGED ON A SIMILAR SOLUTION WITH THE
NEXT TROUGH EVEN AS THEY FLIPPED THEIR SCENARIOS FROM YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. THEY ALL SWEEP A STRONG...FULL LATITUDE TROUGH THROUGH
THE DEEP SOUTH TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
ABOUND. THE NEXT BATCH OF ENERGY RUNNING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
TROUGH IS THE FEATURE THAT REMAINS IN QUESTION. THIS IS PROGGED TO
ARRIVE IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY LATER WEDNESDAY TAKING THE CORE OF
ITS ENERGY THROUGH KENTUCKY...NOW QUICKEST IN THE NEWLY AMPLIFIED
GFS VERSION WHEN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THE GEM DOES LITTLE TO
SETTLE THIS DISPUTE BY HAVING A MILDER AND SHALLOWER ITERATION OF
THIS TRAILING TROUGH. GIVEN THE SLOWLY GELLING SOLUTION HERE FOR
MIDWEEK WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A GENERAL MODEL BLEND. THE FOLLOW
ALONG TROUGH WILL THEN EASE EAST-NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT LEAVING FAIRLY FAST NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND ABOVE THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ZONAL THROUGH THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE BULK OF THE ENERGY DURING THIS TIME
STAYING TO THE NORTH...CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES. ALSO HERE...WILL
FAVOR A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WEATHER DETAILS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE DRYING OUT THE AREA ON
TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY/S FRONT AND EAST KENTUCKY BEING TOO
FAR SOUTH TO BE AFFECTED BY THE QUEBEC SFC LOW/S WRAP AROUND.
HOWEVER...A DEVELOPING STORM WILL START TO LIFT NORTH ALONG THE
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WITH A LARGE PCPN SHIELD LATER THAT
NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE APPEARS TO BE A MODEL TREND
TO PULL THIS SHIELD FURTHER WEST INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY WHERE SOME SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE RIDGES WHILE THE
VALLEYS LIKELY ONLY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN. AS THE LOW PASSES LATER
THAT EVENING...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW OR RAIN CHANCES
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
CWA. UPSLOPE FLOW MAY LINGER SNOW SHOWERS INTO DAY THURSDAY FOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES IN THE FAR EAST. COLDER AIR THEN WILL LIKELY
SPREAD BRIEFLY INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY THAT NIGHT...THOUGH IT WILL
RETREAT JUST AS QUICKLY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WHEN HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST AND RETURN FLOW SENDS MOIST AND WARMER AIR INTO THE
SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY. THIS COULD BE ACTIVATED BY THE NEARBY FRONT
LATER SATURDAY AND INTO THE NIGHT FOR SOME SMALL RAIN CHANCES.
SUNDAY WILL BE A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...THOUGH...AS THE MODELS
DISAGREE AS TO WHETHER THE FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTH THROUGH
KENTUCKY...GFS...OR STAY NORTH...ECMWF. FOR NOW WILL HOLD TO THE
CONSENSUS HERE AND GO WITH A MILD FORECAST...BUT WITH A SMALL CHANCE
FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

THE CR GRID LOAD PROVIDED A DECENT START THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WITH CHANGES MAINLY MADE TO BETTER REFLECT THE SNOW CHANCES
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN ONLY MADE
SOME MINOR RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE CHANGES FOR LOWS EACH NIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO BE GENERALLY
BETWEEN VFR/MFVR BETWEEN SHOWERS THAT ROLL THROUGH THE TAF SITES.
OVERNIGHT MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO COME TO A END
THEN POSSIBLE SOME SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES
TOMORROW AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. STRONG SSW WINDS
ALOFT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT BETWEEN
06 AND 12Z. AT THE SURFACE...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE
TOWARDS DAWN MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...DJ








000
FXUS63 KJKL 232023
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
323 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE MAPS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SURFACE LOW
CONTINUING TO DEEPEN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AND WILL TRACK NE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A ATTENDANT WARM
FRONT WILL TRACK NE AND ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS EXPECT THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TO NEGATIVELY
TILT WITH THE AXIS GENERALLY TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
SHORTWAVE IS STILL EXPECTED TO COUPLE WITH THE LARGER TROUGH THAT IS
TRACKING EAST OUT OF THE WESTERN U.S. MOVING INTO MONDAY EXPECT A
SURFACE COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THIS
MODELED SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND GOOD MIXING TO
COINCIDE WITH STRONG JET ENERGY ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW
STRONGER JET ENERGY TO MIX DOWN. THEN WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL TRY TO
BUILD EAST MONDAY NIGHT.

GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP THROUGH THE PERIOD EXPECTING PRECIP TO
CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT. DOES LOOK LIKE MODELS DO
WANT TO KEEP SOME POPS AROUND OVERNIGHT SO PLAN TO STICK CLOSE TO
CHANCE/LIKELY RAIN SHOWERS FROM SW TO NE TONIGHT. THEN TRANSITION TO
SLIGHT/CHANCE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY. GIVEN STRONG JET
ENERGY ACROSS THE REGION AND DECENT MIXING EXPECTING STRONGER WINDS
TO BE A ISSUE ESPECIALLY INTO MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING
SLIGHT/CHANCE RAIN SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE CWA MONDAY. GIVEN MUCH OF
THE REGION WILL SEE WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 35 TO 45 MPH MONDAY
MORNING INTO LATE MONDAY. THIS HAS PROMPTED A WIND ADVISORY AREA WIDE
MONDAY MORNING TILL LATE MONDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TRAIL OFF AS
WE MOVE INTO THE EVENING ON MONDAY...THEN COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION AND WEAK HIGH WILL TRY TO BUILD EAST OVERNIGHT
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE MODELS REMAIN IN A STATE OF DISARRAY ALOFT THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF THE FORECAST FOR THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY. HOWEVER THE
GFS AND ECMWF SEEMS TO HAVE CONVERGED ON A SIMILAR SOLUTION WITH THE
NEXT TROUGH EVEN AS THEY FLIPPED THEIR SCENARIOS FROM YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. THEY ALL SWEEP A STRONG...FULL LATITUDE TROUGH THROUGH
THE DEEP SOUTH TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
ABOUND. THE NEXT BATCH OF ENERGY RUNNING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
TROUGH IS THE FEATURE THAT REMAINS IN QUESTION. THIS IS PROGGED TO
ARRIVE IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY LATER WEDNESDAY TAKING THE CORE OF
ITS ENERGY THROUGH KENTUCKY...NOW QUICKEST IN THE NEWLY AMPLIFIED
GFS VERSION WHEN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THE GEM DOES LITTLE TO
SETTLE THIS DISPUTE BY HAVING A MILDER AND SHALLOWER ITERATION OF
THIS TRAILING TROUGH. GIVEN THE SLOWLY GELLING SOLUTION HERE FOR
MIDWEEK WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A GENERAL MODEL BLEND. THE FOLLOW
ALONG TROUGH WILL THEN EASE EAST-NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT LEAVING FAIRLY FAST NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND ABOVE THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ZONAL THROUGH THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE BULK OF THE ENERGY DURING THIS TIME
STAYING TO THE NORTH...CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES. ALSO HERE...WILL
FAVOR A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WEATHER DETAILS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE DRYING OUT THE AREA ON
TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY/S FRONT AND EAST KENTUCKY BEING TOO
FAR SOUTH TO BE AFFECTED BY THE QUEBEC SFC LOW/S WRAP AROUND.
HOWEVER...A DEVELOPING STORM WILL START TO LIFT NORTH ALONG THE
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WITH A LARGE PCPN SHIELD LATER THAT
NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE APPEARS TO BE A MODEL TREND
TO PULL THIS SHIELD FURTHER WEST INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY WHERE SOME SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE RIDGES WHILE THE
VALLEYS LIKELY ONLY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN. AS THE LOW PASSES LATER
THAT EVENING...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW OR RAIN CHANCES
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
CWA. UPSLOPE FLOW MAY LINGER SNOW SHOWERS INTO DAY THURSDAY FOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES IN THE FAR EAST. COLDER AIR THEN WILL LIKELY
SPREAD BRIEFLY INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY THAT NIGHT...THOUGH IT WILL
RETREAT JUST AS QUICKLY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WHEN HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST AND RETURN FLOW SENDS MOIST AND WARMER AIR INTO THE
SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY. THIS COULD BE ACTIVATED BY THE NEARBY FRONT
LATER SATURDAY AND INTO THE NIGHT FOR SOME SMALL RAIN CHANCES.
SUNDAY WILL BE A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...THOUGH...AS THE MODELS
DISAGREE AS TO WHETHER THE FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTH THROUGH
KENTUCKY...GFS...OR STAY NORTH...ECMWF. FOR NOW WILL HOLD TO THE
CONSENSUS HERE AND GO WITH A MILD FORECAST...BUT WITH A SMALL CHANCE
FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

THE CR GRID LOAD PROVIDED A DECENT START THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WITH CHANGES MAINLY MADE TO BETTER REFLECT THE SNOW CHANCES
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN ONLY MADE
SOME MINOR RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE CHANGES FOR LOWS EACH NIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO BE GENERALLY
BETWEEN VFR/MFVR BETWEEN SHOWERS THAT ROLL THROUGH THE TAF SITES.
OVERNIGHT MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO COME TO A END
THEN POSSIBLE SOME SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES
TOMORROW AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. STRONG SSW WINDS
ALOFT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT BETWEEN
06 AND 12Z. AT THE SURFACE...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE
TOWARDS DAWN MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...DJ







000
FXUS63 KJKL 231955 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
255 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1247 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

WSR-88D RADAR CONTINUES TO INDICATE BANDS OF RAIN SHOWERS STREAMING
NORTH ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. HEAVIEST BAND THIS HOUR IS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. FRESHENED GRIDS UP WITH
LATEST OBS AND SURFACE DATA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 955 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

WSR-88D IS INDICATING A LIGHT BAND SHOWERS WITH LEADING EDGE
GENERALLY FROM STANTON TO FLEMING MOVING NE. GIVEN THAT AND A FEW
OBS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA COMING IN WITH LIGHT
RAIN DID OPT TO GO AHEAD AND EXTEND SLIGHT POPS NORTH. OTHERWISE
FRESHENED UP OTHER ELEMENTS BASED OFF CURRENT OBS DATABASE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 733 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. MAINLY FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...WITH DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND ANOTHER LOW LOCATED NEAR THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.
ALOFT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ROLLING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS...WHILE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING IS MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO
THE PLAINS.

RETURN FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH HAS ALLOWED FOR MILDER
CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE BROADER VALLEYS OUT
WEST AS WELL AS RIDGETOPS...WHILE SOME SHELTERED VALLEYS REMAIN
DECOUPLED IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE STREAMING IN OVERHEAD WITH THE DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW
IN PLACE THROUGH THE COLUMN.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE GULF
COAST SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST AND THEN SWINGING MORE NORTHEAST INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE PLAINS...EVENTUALLY BECOMING A FULL
LATITUDE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS BY MONDAY. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONGLOMERATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...BEFORE
DEEPENING RAPIDLY AND LIFTING NORTHEAST...REACHING THE GREAT LAKES BY
MONDAY.

THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL AS AID FROM THE
DAMPENING MID-LEVEL VORT COMING OUT OF THE GULF REGION WILL ALLOW FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. THE GFS
REMAINS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SWATH OF RAINFALL...EXITING IT
QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY THIS EVENING. AM MORE INCLINED TO
SIDE WITH THE SREF...WHICH HAS TRENDED SLOWER IN RECENT RUNS. HAVE
THEREFORE HUNG ONTO POPS LONGER INTO THIS EVENING...BEFORE A WARM
SECTOR LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS THROUGH IN THE
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MOISTURE LOOKS MORE LIMITED AND THE FRONT WILL
BE SHEARING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. AS SUCH...HAVE MAINTAINED MAINLY
CHANCE POPS...WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES IN THE WEST AND LOWER ONES IN
THE EAST.

THE BIGGER IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WIND GUSTS...AS MULTIPLE LOW LEVEL JETS RAMP UP ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN NOW AND MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING STRONG WIND GUSTS
LOOKS TO BE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. WIND GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 45 MPH LOOK ACHIEVABLE GIVEN THE
STRONG WIND FIELDS AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE BEHIND
THE FRONT. AS SUCH WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN AN SPS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE MODELS REMAIN IN A STATE OF DISARRAY ALOFT THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF THE FORECAST FOR THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY. HOWEVER THE
GFS AND ECMWF SEEMS TO HAVE CONVERGED ON A SIMILAR SOLUTION WITH THE
NEXT TROUGH EVEN AS THEY FLIPPED THEIR SCENARIOS FROM YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. THEY ALL SWEEP A STRONG...FULL LATITUDE TROUGH THROUGH
THE DEEP SOUTH TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
ABOUND. THE NEXT BATCH OF ENERGY RUNNING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
TROUGH IS THE FEATURE THAT REMAINS IN QUESTION. THIS IS PROGGED TO
ARRIVE IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY LATER WEDNESDAY TAKING THE CORE OF
ITS ENERGY THROUGH KENTUCKY...NOW QUICKEST IN THE NEWLY AMPLIFIED
GFS VERSION WHEN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THE GEM DOES LITTLE TO
SETTLE THIS DISPUTE BY HAVING A MILDER AND SHALLOWER ITERATION OF
THIS TRAILING TROUGH. GIVEN THE SLOWLY GELLING SOLUTION HERE FOR
MIDWEEK WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A GENERAL MODEL BLEND. THE FOLLOW
ALONG TROUGH WILL THEN EASE EAST-NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT LEAVING FAIRLY FAST NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND ABOVE THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ZONAL THROUGH THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE BULK OF THE ENERGY DURING THIS TIME
STAYING TO THE NORTH...CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES. ALSO HERE...WILL
FAVOR A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WEATHER DETAILS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE DRYING OUT THE AREA ON
TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY/S FRONT AND EAST KENTUCKY BEING TOO
FAR SOUTH TO BE AFFECTED BY THE QUEBEC SFC LOW/S WRAP AROUND.
HOWEVER...A DEVELOPING STORM WILL START TO LIFT NORTH ALONG THE
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WITH A LARGE PCPN SHIELD LATER THAT
NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE APPEARS TO BE A MODEL TREND
TO PULL THIS SHIELD FURTHER WEST INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY WHERE SOME SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE RIDGES WHILE THE
VALLEYS LIKELY ONLY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN. AS THE LOW PASSES LATER
THAT EVENING...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW OR RAIN CHANCES
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
CWA. UPSLOPE FLOW MAY LINGER SNOW SHOWERS INTO DAY THURSDAY FOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES IN THE FAR EAST. COLDER AIR THEN WILL LIKELY
SPREAD BRIEFLY INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY THAT NIGHT...THOUGH IT WILL
RETREAT JUST AS QUICKLY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WHEN HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST AND RETURN FLOW SENDS MOIST AND WARMER AIR INTO THE
SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY. THIS COULD BE ACTIVATED BY THE NEARBY FRONT
LATER SATURDAY AND INTO THE NIGHT FOR SOME SMALL RAIN CHANCES.
SUNDAY WILL BE A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...THOUGH...AS THE MODELS
DISAGREE AS TO WHETHER THE FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTH THROUGH
KENTUCKY...GFS...OR STAY NORTH...ECMWF. FOR NOW WILL HOLD TO THE
CONSENSUS HERE AND GO WITH A MILD FORECAST...BUT WITH A SMALL CHANCE
FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

THE CR GRID LOAD PROVIDED A DECENT START THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WITH CHANGES MAINLY MADE TO BETTER REFLECT THE SNOW CHANCES
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN ONLY MADE
SOME MINOR RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE CHANGES FOR LOWS EACH NIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO BE GENERALLY
BETWEEN VFR/MFVR BETWEEN SHOWERS THAT ROLL THROUGH THE TAF SITES.
OVERNIGHT MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO COME TO A END
THEN POSSIBLE SOME SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES
TOMORROW AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. STRONG SSW WINDS
ALOFT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT BETWEEN
06 AND 12Z. AT THE SURFACE...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE
TOWARDS DAWN MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...DJ






000
FXUS63 KJKL 231955 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
255 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1247 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

WSR-88D RADAR CONTINUES TO INDICATE BANDS OF RAIN SHOWERS STREAMING
NORTH ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. HEAVIEST BAND THIS HOUR IS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. FRESHENED GRIDS UP WITH
LATEST OBS AND SURFACE DATA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 955 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

WSR-88D IS INDICATING A LIGHT BAND SHOWERS WITH LEADING EDGE
GENERALLY FROM STANTON TO FLEMING MOVING NE. GIVEN THAT AND A FEW
OBS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA COMING IN WITH LIGHT
RAIN DID OPT TO GO AHEAD AND EXTEND SLIGHT POPS NORTH. OTHERWISE
FRESHENED UP OTHER ELEMENTS BASED OFF CURRENT OBS DATABASE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 733 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. MAINLY FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...WITH DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND ANOTHER LOW LOCATED NEAR THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.
ALOFT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ROLLING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS...WHILE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING IS MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO
THE PLAINS.

RETURN FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH HAS ALLOWED FOR MILDER
CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE BROADER VALLEYS OUT
WEST AS WELL AS RIDGETOPS...WHILE SOME SHELTERED VALLEYS REMAIN
DECOUPLED IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE STREAMING IN OVERHEAD WITH THE DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW
IN PLACE THROUGH THE COLUMN.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE GULF
COAST SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST AND THEN SWINGING MORE NORTHEAST INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE PLAINS...EVENTUALLY BECOMING A FULL
LATITUDE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS BY MONDAY. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONGLOMERATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...BEFORE
DEEPENING RAPIDLY AND LIFTING NORTHEAST...REACHING THE GREAT LAKES BY
MONDAY.

THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL AS AID FROM THE
DAMPENING MID-LEVEL VORT COMING OUT OF THE GULF REGION WILL ALLOW FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. THE GFS
REMAINS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SWATH OF RAINFALL...EXITING IT
QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY THIS EVENING. AM MORE INCLINED TO
SIDE WITH THE SREF...WHICH HAS TRENDED SLOWER IN RECENT RUNS. HAVE
THEREFORE HUNG ONTO POPS LONGER INTO THIS EVENING...BEFORE A WARM
SECTOR LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS THROUGH IN THE
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MOISTURE LOOKS MORE LIMITED AND THE FRONT WILL
BE SHEARING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. AS SUCH...HAVE MAINTAINED MAINLY
CHANCE POPS...WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES IN THE WEST AND LOWER ONES IN
THE EAST.

THE BIGGER IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WIND GUSTS...AS MULTIPLE LOW LEVEL JETS RAMP UP ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN NOW AND MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING STRONG WIND GUSTS
LOOKS TO BE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. WIND GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 45 MPH LOOK ACHIEVABLE GIVEN THE
STRONG WIND FIELDS AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE BEHIND
THE FRONT. AS SUCH WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN AN SPS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE MODELS REMAIN IN A STATE OF DISARRAY ALOFT THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF THE FORECAST FOR THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY. HOWEVER THE
GFS AND ECMWF SEEMS TO HAVE CONVERGED ON A SIMILAR SOLUTION WITH THE
NEXT TROUGH EVEN AS THEY FLIPPED THEIR SCENARIOS FROM YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. THEY ALL SWEEP A STRONG...FULL LATITUDE TROUGH THROUGH
THE DEEP SOUTH TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
ABOUND. THE NEXT BATCH OF ENERGY RUNNING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
TROUGH IS THE FEATURE THAT REMAINS IN QUESTION. THIS IS PROGGED TO
ARRIVE IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY LATER WEDNESDAY TAKING THE CORE OF
ITS ENERGY THROUGH KENTUCKY...NOW QUICKEST IN THE NEWLY AMPLIFIED
GFS VERSION WHEN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THE GEM DOES LITTLE TO
SETTLE THIS DISPUTE BY HAVING A MILDER AND SHALLOWER ITERATION OF
THIS TRAILING TROUGH. GIVEN THE SLOWLY GELLING SOLUTION HERE FOR
MIDWEEK WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A GENERAL MODEL BLEND. THE FOLLOW
ALONG TROUGH WILL THEN EASE EAST-NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT LEAVING FAIRLY FAST NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND ABOVE THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ZONAL THROUGH THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE BULK OF THE ENERGY DURING THIS TIME
STAYING TO THE NORTH...CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES. ALSO HERE...WILL
FAVOR A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WEATHER DETAILS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE DRYING OUT THE AREA ON
TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY/S FRONT AND EAST KENTUCKY BEING TOO
FAR SOUTH TO BE AFFECTED BY THE QUEBEC SFC LOW/S WRAP AROUND.
HOWEVER...A DEVELOPING STORM WILL START TO LIFT NORTH ALONG THE
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WITH A LARGE PCPN SHIELD LATER THAT
NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE APPEARS TO BE A MODEL TREND
TO PULL THIS SHIELD FURTHER WEST INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY WHERE SOME SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE RIDGES WHILE THE
VALLEYS LIKELY ONLY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN. AS THE LOW PASSES LATER
THAT EVENING...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW OR RAIN CHANCES
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
CWA. UPSLOPE FLOW MAY LINGER SNOW SHOWERS INTO DAY THURSDAY FOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES IN THE FAR EAST. COLDER AIR THEN WILL LIKELY
SPREAD BRIEFLY INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY THAT NIGHT...THOUGH IT WILL
RETREAT JUST AS QUICKLY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WHEN HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST AND RETURN FLOW SENDS MOIST AND WARMER AIR INTO THE
SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY. THIS COULD BE ACTIVATED BY THE NEARBY FRONT
LATER SATURDAY AND INTO THE NIGHT FOR SOME SMALL RAIN CHANCES.
SUNDAY WILL BE A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...THOUGH...AS THE MODELS
DISAGREE AS TO WHETHER THE FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTH THROUGH
KENTUCKY...GFS...OR STAY NORTH...ECMWF. FOR NOW WILL HOLD TO THE
CONSENSUS HERE AND GO WITH A MILD FORECAST...BUT WITH A SMALL CHANCE
FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

THE CR GRID LOAD PROVIDED A DECENT START THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WITH CHANGES MAINLY MADE TO BETTER REFLECT THE SNOW CHANCES
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN ONLY MADE
SOME MINOR RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE CHANGES FOR LOWS EACH NIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO BE GENERALLY
BETWEEN VFR/MFVR BETWEEN SHOWERS THAT ROLL THROUGH THE TAF SITES.
OVERNIGHT MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO COME TO A END
THEN POSSIBLE SOME SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES
TOMORROW AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. STRONG SSW WINDS
ALOFT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT BETWEEN
06 AND 12Z. AT THE SURFACE...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE
TOWARDS DAWN MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...DJ







000
FXUS63 KJKL 231955 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
255 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1247 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

WSR-88D RADAR CONTINUES TO INDICATE BANDS OF RAIN SHOWERS STREAMING
NORTH ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. HEAVIEST BAND THIS HOUR IS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. FRESHENED GRIDS UP WITH
LATEST OBS AND SURFACE DATA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 955 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

WSR-88D IS INDICATING A LIGHT BAND SHOWERS WITH LEADING EDGE
GENERALLY FROM STANTON TO FLEMING MOVING NE. GIVEN THAT AND A FEW
OBS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA COMING IN WITH LIGHT
RAIN DID OPT TO GO AHEAD AND EXTEND SLIGHT POPS NORTH. OTHERWISE
FRESHENED UP OTHER ELEMENTS BASED OFF CURRENT OBS DATABASE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 733 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. MAINLY FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...WITH DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND ANOTHER LOW LOCATED NEAR THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.
ALOFT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ROLLING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS...WHILE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING IS MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO
THE PLAINS.

RETURN FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH HAS ALLOWED FOR MILDER
CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE BROADER VALLEYS OUT
WEST AS WELL AS RIDGETOPS...WHILE SOME SHELTERED VALLEYS REMAIN
DECOUPLED IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE STREAMING IN OVERHEAD WITH THE DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW
IN PLACE THROUGH THE COLUMN.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE GULF
COAST SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST AND THEN SWINGING MORE NORTHEAST INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE PLAINS...EVENTUALLY BECOMING A FULL
LATITUDE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS BY MONDAY. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONGLOMERATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...BEFORE
DEEPENING RAPIDLY AND LIFTING NORTHEAST...REACHING THE GREAT LAKES BY
MONDAY.

THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL AS AID FROM THE
DAMPENING MID-LEVEL VORT COMING OUT OF THE GULF REGION WILL ALLOW FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. THE GFS
REMAINS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SWATH OF RAINFALL...EXITING IT
QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY THIS EVENING. AM MORE INCLINED TO
SIDE WITH THE SREF...WHICH HAS TRENDED SLOWER IN RECENT RUNS. HAVE
THEREFORE HUNG ONTO POPS LONGER INTO THIS EVENING...BEFORE A WARM
SECTOR LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS THROUGH IN THE
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MOISTURE LOOKS MORE LIMITED AND THE FRONT WILL
BE SHEARING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. AS SUCH...HAVE MAINTAINED MAINLY
CHANCE POPS...WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES IN THE WEST AND LOWER ONES IN
THE EAST.

THE BIGGER IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WIND GUSTS...AS MULTIPLE LOW LEVEL JETS RAMP UP ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN NOW AND MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING STRONG WIND GUSTS
LOOKS TO BE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. WIND GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 45 MPH LOOK ACHIEVABLE GIVEN THE
STRONG WIND FIELDS AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE BEHIND
THE FRONT. AS SUCH WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN AN SPS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE MODELS REMAIN IN A STATE OF DISARRAY ALOFT THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF THE FORECAST FOR THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY. HOWEVER THE
GFS AND ECMWF SEEMS TO HAVE CONVERGED ON A SIMILAR SOLUTION WITH THE
NEXT TROUGH EVEN AS THEY FLIPPED THEIR SCENARIOS FROM YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. THEY ALL SWEEP A STRONG...FULL LATITUDE TROUGH THROUGH
THE DEEP SOUTH TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
ABOUND. THE NEXT BATCH OF ENERGY RUNNING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
TROUGH IS THE FEATURE THAT REMAINS IN QUESTION. THIS IS PROGGED TO
ARRIVE IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY LATER WEDNESDAY TAKING THE CORE OF
ITS ENERGY THROUGH KENTUCKY...NOW QUICKEST IN THE NEWLY AMPLIFIED
GFS VERSION WHEN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THE GEM DOES LITTLE TO
SETTLE THIS DISPUTE BY HAVING A MILDER AND SHALLOWER ITERATION OF
THIS TRAILING TROUGH. GIVEN THE SLOWLY GELLING SOLUTION HERE FOR
MIDWEEK WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A GENERAL MODEL BLEND. THE FOLLOW
ALONG TROUGH WILL THEN EASE EAST-NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT LEAVING FAIRLY FAST NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND ABOVE THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ZONAL THROUGH THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE BULK OF THE ENERGY DURING THIS TIME
STAYING TO THE NORTH...CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES. ALSO HERE...WILL
FAVOR A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WEATHER DETAILS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE DRYING OUT THE AREA ON
TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY/S FRONT AND EAST KENTUCKY BEING TOO
FAR SOUTH TO BE AFFECTED BY THE QUEBEC SFC LOW/S WRAP AROUND.
HOWEVER...A DEVELOPING STORM WILL START TO LIFT NORTH ALONG THE
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WITH A LARGE PCPN SHIELD LATER THAT
NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE APPEARS TO BE A MODEL TREND
TO PULL THIS SHIELD FURTHER WEST INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY WHERE SOME SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE RIDGES WHILE THE
VALLEYS LIKELY ONLY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN. AS THE LOW PASSES LATER
THAT EVENING...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW OR RAIN CHANCES
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
CWA. UPSLOPE FLOW MAY LINGER SNOW SHOWERS INTO DAY THURSDAY FOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES IN THE FAR EAST. COLDER AIR THEN WILL LIKELY
SPREAD BRIEFLY INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY THAT NIGHT...THOUGH IT WILL
RETREAT JUST AS QUICKLY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WHEN HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST AND RETURN FLOW SENDS MOIST AND WARMER AIR INTO THE
SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY. THIS COULD BE ACTIVATED BY THE NEARBY FRONT
LATER SATURDAY AND INTO THE NIGHT FOR SOME SMALL RAIN CHANCES.
SUNDAY WILL BE A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...THOUGH...AS THE MODELS
DISAGREE AS TO WHETHER THE FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTH THROUGH
KENTUCKY...GFS...OR STAY NORTH...ECMWF. FOR NOW WILL HOLD TO THE
CONSENSUS HERE AND GO WITH A MILD FORECAST...BUT WITH A SMALL CHANCE
FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

THE CR GRID LOAD PROVIDED A DECENT START THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WITH CHANGES MAINLY MADE TO BETTER REFLECT THE SNOW CHANCES
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN ONLY MADE
SOME MINOR RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE CHANGES FOR LOWS EACH NIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO BE GENERALLY
BETWEEN VFR/MFVR BETWEEN SHOWERS THAT ROLL THROUGH THE TAF SITES.
OVERNIGHT MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO COME TO A END
THEN POSSIBLE SOME SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES
TOMORROW AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. STRONG SSW WINDS
ALOFT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT BETWEEN
06 AND 12Z. AT THE SURFACE...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE
TOWARDS DAWN MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...DJ






000
FXUS63 KJKL 231955 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
255 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1247 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

WSR-88D RADAR CONTINUES TO INDICATE BANDS OF RAIN SHOWERS STREAMING
NORTH ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. HEAVIEST BAND THIS HOUR IS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. FRESHENED GRIDS UP WITH
LATEST OBS AND SURFACE DATA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 955 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

WSR-88D IS INDICATING A LIGHT BAND SHOWERS WITH LEADING EDGE
GENERALLY FROM STANTON TO FLEMING MOVING NE. GIVEN THAT AND A FEW
OBS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA COMING IN WITH LIGHT
RAIN DID OPT TO GO AHEAD AND EXTEND SLIGHT POPS NORTH. OTHERWISE
FRESHENED UP OTHER ELEMENTS BASED OFF CURRENT OBS DATABASE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 733 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. MAINLY FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...WITH DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND ANOTHER LOW LOCATED NEAR THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.
ALOFT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ROLLING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS...WHILE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING IS MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO
THE PLAINS.

RETURN FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH HAS ALLOWED FOR MILDER
CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE BROADER VALLEYS OUT
WEST AS WELL AS RIDGETOPS...WHILE SOME SHELTERED VALLEYS REMAIN
DECOUPLED IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE STREAMING IN OVERHEAD WITH THE DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW
IN PLACE THROUGH THE COLUMN.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE GULF
COAST SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST AND THEN SWINGING MORE NORTHEAST INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE PLAINS...EVENTUALLY BECOMING A FULL
LATITUDE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS BY MONDAY. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONGLOMERATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...BEFORE
DEEPENING RAPIDLY AND LIFTING NORTHEAST...REACHING THE GREAT LAKES BY
MONDAY.

THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL AS AID FROM THE
DAMPENING MID-LEVEL VORT COMING OUT OF THE GULF REGION WILL ALLOW FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. THE GFS
REMAINS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SWATH OF RAINFALL...EXITING IT
QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY THIS EVENING. AM MORE INCLINED TO
SIDE WITH THE SREF...WHICH HAS TRENDED SLOWER IN RECENT RUNS. HAVE
THEREFORE HUNG ONTO POPS LONGER INTO THIS EVENING...BEFORE A WARM
SECTOR LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS THROUGH IN THE
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MOISTURE LOOKS MORE LIMITED AND THE FRONT WILL
BE SHEARING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. AS SUCH...HAVE MAINTAINED MAINLY
CHANCE POPS...WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES IN THE WEST AND LOWER ONES IN
THE EAST.

THE BIGGER IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WIND GUSTS...AS MULTIPLE LOW LEVEL JETS RAMP UP ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN NOW AND MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING STRONG WIND GUSTS
LOOKS TO BE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. WIND GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 45 MPH LOOK ACHIEVABLE GIVEN THE
STRONG WIND FIELDS AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE BEHIND
THE FRONT. AS SUCH WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN AN SPS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE MODELS REMAIN IN A STATE OF DISARRAY ALOFT THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF THE FORECAST FOR THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY. HOWEVER THE
GFS AND ECMWF SEEMS TO HAVE CONVERGED ON A SIMILAR SOLUTION WITH THE
NEXT TROUGH EVEN AS THEY FLIPPED THEIR SCENARIOS FROM YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. THEY ALL SWEEP A STRONG...FULL LATITUDE TROUGH THROUGH
THE DEEP SOUTH TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
ABOUND. THE NEXT BATCH OF ENERGY RUNNING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
TROUGH IS THE FEATURE THAT REMAINS IN QUESTION. THIS IS PROGGED TO
ARRIVE IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY LATER WEDNESDAY TAKING THE CORE OF
ITS ENERGY THROUGH KENTUCKY...NOW QUICKEST IN THE NEWLY AMPLIFIED
GFS VERSION WHEN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THE GEM DOES LITTLE TO
SETTLE THIS DISPUTE BY HAVING A MILDER AND SHALLOWER ITERATION OF
THIS TRAILING TROUGH. GIVEN THE SLOWLY GELLING SOLUTION HERE FOR
MIDWEEK WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A GENERAL MODEL BLEND. THE FOLLOW
ALONG TROUGH WILL THEN EASE EAST-NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT LEAVING FAIRLY FAST NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND ABOVE THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ZONAL THROUGH THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE BULK OF THE ENERGY DURING THIS TIME
STAYING TO THE NORTH...CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES. ALSO HERE...WILL
FAVOR A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WEATHER DETAILS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE DRYING OUT THE AREA ON
TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY/S FRONT AND EAST KENTUCKY BEING TOO
FAR SOUTH TO BE AFFECTED BY THE QUEBEC SFC LOW/S WRAP AROUND.
HOWEVER...A DEVELOPING STORM WILL START TO LIFT NORTH ALONG THE
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WITH A LARGE PCPN SHIELD LATER THAT
NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE APPEARS TO BE A MODEL TREND
TO PULL THIS SHIELD FURTHER WEST INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY WHERE SOME SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE RIDGES WHILE THE
VALLEYS LIKELY ONLY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN. AS THE LOW PASSES LATER
THAT EVENING...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW OR RAIN CHANCES
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
CWA. UPSLOPE FLOW MAY LINGER SNOW SHOWERS INTO DAY THURSDAY FOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES IN THE FAR EAST. COLDER AIR THEN WILL LIKELY
SPREAD BRIEFLY INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY THAT NIGHT...THOUGH IT WILL
RETREAT JUST AS QUICKLY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WHEN HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST AND RETURN FLOW SENDS MOIST AND WARMER AIR INTO THE
SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY. THIS COULD BE ACTIVATED BY THE NEARBY FRONT
LATER SATURDAY AND INTO THE NIGHT FOR SOME SMALL RAIN CHANCES.
SUNDAY WILL BE A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...THOUGH...AS THE MODELS
DISAGREE AS TO WHETHER THE FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTH THROUGH
KENTUCKY...GFS...OR STAY NORTH...ECMWF. FOR NOW WILL HOLD TO THE
CONSENSUS HERE AND GO WITH A MILD FORECAST...BUT WITH A SMALL CHANCE
FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

THE CR GRID LOAD PROVIDED A DECENT START THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WITH CHANGES MAINLY MADE TO BETTER REFLECT THE SNOW CHANCES
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN ONLY MADE
SOME MINOR RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE CHANGES FOR LOWS EACH NIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO BE GENERALLY
BETWEEN VFR/MFVR BETWEEN SHOWERS THAT ROLL THROUGH THE TAF SITES.
OVERNIGHT MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO COME TO A END
THEN POSSIBLE SOME SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES
TOMORROW AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. STRONG SSW WINDS
ALOFT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT BETWEEN
06 AND 12Z. AT THE SURFACE...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE
TOWARDS DAWN MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...DJ







000
FXUS63 KJKL 231748
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1248 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1247 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

WSR-88D RADAR CONTINUES TO INDICATE BANDS OF RAIN SHOWERS STREAMING
NORTH ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. HEAVIEST BAND THIS HOUR IS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. FRESHENED GRIDS UP WITH
LATEST OBS AND SURFACE DATA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 955 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

WSR-88D IS INDICATING A LIGHT BAND SHOWERS WITH LEADING EDGE
GENERALLY FROM STANTON TO FLEMING MOVING NE. GIVEN THAT AND A FEW
OBS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA COMING IN WITH LIGHT
RAIN DID OPT TO GO AHEAD AND EXTEND SLIGHT POPS NORTH. OTHERWISE
FRESHENED UP OTHER ELEMENTS BASED OFF CURRENT OBS DATABASE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 733 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. MAINLY FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...WITH DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND ANOTHER LOW LOCATED NEAR THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.
ALOFT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ROLLING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS...WHILE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING IS MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO
THE PLAINS.

RETURN FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH HAS ALLOWED FOR MILDER
CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE BROADER VALLEYS OUT
WEST AS WELL AS RIDGETOPS...WHILE SOME SHELTERED VALLEYS REMAIN
DECOUPLED IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE STREAMING IN OVERHEAD WITH THE DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW
IN PLACE THROUGH THE COLUMN.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE GULF
COAST SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST AND THEN SWINGING MORE NORTHEAST INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE PLAINS...EVENTUALLY BECOMING A FULL
LATITUDE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS BY MONDAY. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONGLOMERATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...BEFORE
DEEPENING RAPIDLY AND LIFTING NORTHEAST...REACHING THE GREAT LAKES BY
MONDAY.

THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL AS AID FROM THE
DAMPENING MID-LEVEL VORT COMING OUT OF THE GULF REGION WILL ALLOW FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. THE GFS
REMAINS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SWATH OF RAINFALL...EXITING IT
QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY THIS EVENING. AM MORE INCLINED TO
SIDE WITH THE SREF...WHICH HAS TRENDED SLOWER IN RECENT RUNS. HAVE
THEREFORE HUNG ONTO POPS LONGER INTO THIS EVENING...BEFORE A WARM
SECTOR LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS THROUGH IN THE
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MOISTURE LOOKS MORE LIMITED AND THE FRONT WILL
BE SHEARING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. AS SUCH...HAVE MAINTAINED MAINLY
CHANCE POPS...WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES IN THE WEST AND LOWER ONES IN
THE EAST.

THE BIGGER IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WIND GUSTS...AS MULTIPLE LOW LEVEL JETS RAMP UP ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN NOW AND MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING STRONG WIND GUSTS
LOOKS TO BE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. WIND GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 45 MPH LOOK ACHIEVABLE GIVEN THE
STRONG WIND FIELDS AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE BEHIND
THE FRONT. AS SUCH WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN AN SPS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST MODEL AGREEMENT RESIDES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH JUST HAPPENS TO COINCIDE WITH THE DRIEST PART
OF THIS FORECAST. THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

THINGS GET A BIT MORE INTERESTING ON WEDNESDAY AS A SHARP TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE GULF COAST STATES WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING. THIS
LOW WILL TRACK NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND COULD
DEVELOP INTO THE FIRST NOR`EASTER OF THE SEASON. MODELS CONTINUE TO
DIFFER ON THE TRACK WITH THE GFS CONTINUING TO BE FARTHER EAST WITH
THE TRACK AND THE ECMWF FARTHER WEST. EVEN THE MOST WESTERN TRACK OF
THE ECMWF WOULD BRING MARGINAL MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...AS A BLEND OF THE TWO SCENARIOS WOULD LIKELY KEEP US DRIER.
IF PRECIPITATION DOES REACH EASTERN KENTUCKY...IT MAY BE PRIMARILY
RAIN AS IT LOOKS TO FALL DURING PEAK HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON.

WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY
THANKSGIVING...IT LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL
DEVELOP LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF QUICK GLANCES OF WARM AND COLD
AIR AS THESE SYSTEMS PASS THROUGH THE REGION. SIMPLY PUT...MODELS ARE
ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH VARIOUS SCENARIOS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GIVEN
THE ACTIVE PATTERN...OPTED TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FORTUNATELY...THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION
LIGHT. IT DOES LOOK A BIT MILDER TOWARDS THE WEEKEND...SO PLAN TO
KEEP PRECIPITATION ALL LIQUID. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SNOW IN THE PERIOD
LOOKS LIKE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING.
AGAIN...PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT...SO NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO BE GENERALLY
BETWEEN VFR/MFVR BETWEEN SHOWERS THAT ROLL THROUGH THE TAF SITES.
OVERNIGHT MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO COME TO A END
THEN POSSIBLE SOME SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES
TOMORROW AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. STRONG SSW WINDS
ALOFT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT BETWEEN
06 AND 12Z. AT THE SURFACE...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE
TOWARDS DAWN MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...DJ







000
FXUS63 KJKL 231748
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1248 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1247 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

WSR-88D RADAR CONTINUES TO INDICATE BANDS OF RAIN SHOWERS STREAMING
NORTH ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. HEAVIEST BAND THIS HOUR IS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. FRESHENED GRIDS UP WITH
LATEST OBS AND SURFACE DATA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 955 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

WSR-88D IS INDICATING A LIGHT BAND SHOWERS WITH LEADING EDGE
GENERALLY FROM STANTON TO FLEMING MOVING NE. GIVEN THAT AND A FEW
OBS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA COMING IN WITH LIGHT
RAIN DID OPT TO GO AHEAD AND EXTEND SLIGHT POPS NORTH. OTHERWISE
FRESHENED UP OTHER ELEMENTS BASED OFF CURRENT OBS DATABASE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 733 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. MAINLY FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...WITH DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND ANOTHER LOW LOCATED NEAR THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.
ALOFT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ROLLING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS...WHILE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING IS MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO
THE PLAINS.

RETURN FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH HAS ALLOWED FOR MILDER
CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE BROADER VALLEYS OUT
WEST AS WELL AS RIDGETOPS...WHILE SOME SHELTERED VALLEYS REMAIN
DECOUPLED IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE STREAMING IN OVERHEAD WITH THE DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW
IN PLACE THROUGH THE COLUMN.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE GULF
COAST SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST AND THEN SWINGING MORE NORTHEAST INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE PLAINS...EVENTUALLY BECOMING A FULL
LATITUDE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS BY MONDAY. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONGLOMERATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...BEFORE
DEEPENING RAPIDLY AND LIFTING NORTHEAST...REACHING THE GREAT LAKES BY
MONDAY.

THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL AS AID FROM THE
DAMPENING MID-LEVEL VORT COMING OUT OF THE GULF REGION WILL ALLOW FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. THE GFS
REMAINS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SWATH OF RAINFALL...EXITING IT
QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY THIS EVENING. AM MORE INCLINED TO
SIDE WITH THE SREF...WHICH HAS TRENDED SLOWER IN RECENT RUNS. HAVE
THEREFORE HUNG ONTO POPS LONGER INTO THIS EVENING...BEFORE A WARM
SECTOR LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS THROUGH IN THE
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MOISTURE LOOKS MORE LIMITED AND THE FRONT WILL
BE SHEARING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. AS SUCH...HAVE MAINTAINED MAINLY
CHANCE POPS...WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES IN THE WEST AND LOWER ONES IN
THE EAST.

THE BIGGER IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WIND GUSTS...AS MULTIPLE LOW LEVEL JETS RAMP UP ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN NOW AND MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING STRONG WIND GUSTS
LOOKS TO BE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. WIND GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 45 MPH LOOK ACHIEVABLE GIVEN THE
STRONG WIND FIELDS AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE BEHIND
THE FRONT. AS SUCH WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN AN SPS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST MODEL AGREEMENT RESIDES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH JUST HAPPENS TO COINCIDE WITH THE DRIEST PART
OF THIS FORECAST. THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

THINGS GET A BIT MORE INTERESTING ON WEDNESDAY AS A SHARP TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE GULF COAST STATES WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING. THIS
LOW WILL TRACK NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND COULD
DEVELOP INTO THE FIRST NOR`EASTER OF THE SEASON. MODELS CONTINUE TO
DIFFER ON THE TRACK WITH THE GFS CONTINUING TO BE FARTHER EAST WITH
THE TRACK AND THE ECMWF FARTHER WEST. EVEN THE MOST WESTERN TRACK OF
THE ECMWF WOULD BRING MARGINAL MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...AS A BLEND OF THE TWO SCENARIOS WOULD LIKELY KEEP US DRIER.
IF PRECIPITATION DOES REACH EASTERN KENTUCKY...IT MAY BE PRIMARILY
RAIN AS IT LOOKS TO FALL DURING PEAK HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON.

WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY
THANKSGIVING...IT LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL
DEVELOP LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF QUICK GLANCES OF WARM AND COLD
AIR AS THESE SYSTEMS PASS THROUGH THE REGION. SIMPLY PUT...MODELS ARE
ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH VARIOUS SCENARIOS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GIVEN
THE ACTIVE PATTERN...OPTED TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FORTUNATELY...THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION
LIGHT. IT DOES LOOK A BIT MILDER TOWARDS THE WEEKEND...SO PLAN TO
KEEP PRECIPITATION ALL LIQUID. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SNOW IN THE PERIOD
LOOKS LIKE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING.
AGAIN...PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT...SO NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO BE GENERALLY
BETWEEN VFR/MFVR BETWEEN SHOWERS THAT ROLL THROUGH THE TAF SITES.
OVERNIGHT MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO COME TO A END
THEN POSSIBLE SOME SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES
TOMORROW AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. STRONG SSW WINDS
ALOFT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT BETWEEN
06 AND 12Z. AT THE SURFACE...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE
TOWARDS DAWN MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...DJ








000
FXUS63 KJKL 231735
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1235 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

WSR-88D IS INDICATING A LIGHT BAND SHOWERS WITH LEADING EDGE
GENERALLY FROM STANTON TO FLEMING MOVING NE. GIVEN THAT AND A FEW
OBS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA COMING IN WITH LIGHT
RAIN DID OPT TO GO AHEAD AND EXTEND SLIGHT POPS NORTH. OTHERWISE
FRESHENED UP OTHER ELEMENTS BASED OFF CURRENT OBS DATABASE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 733 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. MAINLY FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...WITH DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND ANOTHER LOW LOCATED NEAR THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.
ALOFT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ROLLING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS...WHILE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING IS MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO
THE PLAINS.

RETURN FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH HAS ALLOWED FOR MILDER
CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE BROADER VALLEYS OUT
WEST AS WELL AS RIDGETOPS...WHILE SOME SHELTERED VALLEYS REMAIN
DECOUPLED IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE STREAMING IN OVERHEAD WITH THE DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW
IN PLACE THROUGH THE COLUMN.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE GULF
COAST SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST AND THEN SWINGING MORE NORTHEAST INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE PLAINS...EVENTUALLY BECOMING A FULL
LATITUDE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS BY MONDAY. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONGLOMERATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...BEFORE
DEEPENING RAPIDLY AND LIFTING NORTHEAST...REACHING THE GREAT LAKES BY
MONDAY.

THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL AS AID FROM THE
DAMPENING MID-LEVEL VORT COMING OUT OF THE GULF REGION WILL ALLOW FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. THE GFS
REMAINS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SWATH OF RAINFALL...EXITING IT
QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY THIS EVENING. AM MORE INCLINED TO
SIDE WITH THE SREF...WHICH HAS TRENDED SLOWER IN RECENT RUNS. HAVE
THEREFORE HUNG ONTO POPS LONGER INTO THIS EVENING...BEFORE A WARM
SECTOR LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS THROUGH IN THE
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MOISTURE LOOKS MORE LIMITED AND THE FRONT WILL
BE SHEARING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. AS SUCH...HAVE MAINTAINED MAINLY
CHANCE POPS...WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES IN THE WEST AND LOWER ONES IN
THE EAST.

THE BIGGER IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WIND GUSTS...AS MULTIPLE LOW LEVEL JETS RAMP UP ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN NOW AND MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING STRONG WIND GUSTS
LOOKS TO BE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. WIND GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 45 MPH LOOK ACHIEVABLE GIVEN THE
STRONG WIND FIELDS AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE BEHIND
THE FRONT. AS SUCH WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN AN SPS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST MODEL AGREEMENT RESIDES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH JUST HAPPENS TO COINCIDE WITH THE DRIEST PART
OF THIS FORECAST. THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

THINGS GET A BIT MORE INTERESTING ON WEDNESDAY AS A SHARP TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE GULF COAST STATES WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING. THIS
LOW WILL TRACK NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND COULD
DEVELOP INTO THE FIRST NOR`EASTER OF THE SEASON. MODELS CONTINUE TO
DIFFER ON THE TRACK WITH THE GFS CONTINUING TO BE FARTHER EAST WITH
THE TRACK AND THE ECMWF FARTHER WEST. EVEN THE MOST WESTERN TRACK OF
THE ECMWF WOULD BRING MARGINAL MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...AS A BLEND OF THE TWO SCENARIOS WOULD LIKELY KEEP US DRIER.
IF PRECIPITATION DOES REACH EASTERN KENTUCKY...IT MAY BE PRIMARILY
RAIN AS IT LOOKS TO FALL DURING PEAK HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON.

WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY
THANKSGIVING...IT LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL
DEVELOP LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF QUICK GLANCES OF WARM AND COLD
AIR AS THESE SYSTEMS PASS THROUGH THE REGION. SIMPLY PUT...MODELS ARE
ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH VARIOUS SCENARIOS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GIVEN
THE ACTIVE PATTERN...OPTED TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FORTUNATELY...THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION
LIGHT. IT DOES LOOK A BIT MILDER TOWARDS THE WEEKEND...SO PLAN TO
KEEP PRECIPITATION ALL LIQUID. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SNOW IN THE PERIOD
LOOKS LIKE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING.
AGAIN...PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT...SO NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO BE GENERALLY
BETWEEN VFR/MFVR BETWEEN SHOWERS THAT ROLL THROUGH THE TAF SITES.
OVERNIGHT MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO COME TO A END
THEN POSSIBLE SOME SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES
TOMORROW AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. STRONG SSW WINDS
ALOFT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT BETWEEN
06 AND 12Z. AT THE SURFACE...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE
TOWARDS DAWN MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...DJ







000
FXUS63 KJKL 231735
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1235 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

WSR-88D IS INDICATING A LIGHT BAND SHOWERS WITH LEADING EDGE
GENERALLY FROM STANTON TO FLEMING MOVING NE. GIVEN THAT AND A FEW
OBS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA COMING IN WITH LIGHT
RAIN DID OPT TO GO AHEAD AND EXTEND SLIGHT POPS NORTH. OTHERWISE
FRESHENED UP OTHER ELEMENTS BASED OFF CURRENT OBS DATABASE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 733 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. MAINLY FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...WITH DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND ANOTHER LOW LOCATED NEAR THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.
ALOFT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ROLLING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS...WHILE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING IS MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO
THE PLAINS.

RETURN FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH HAS ALLOWED FOR MILDER
CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE BROADER VALLEYS OUT
WEST AS WELL AS RIDGETOPS...WHILE SOME SHELTERED VALLEYS REMAIN
DECOUPLED IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE STREAMING IN OVERHEAD WITH THE DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW
IN PLACE THROUGH THE COLUMN.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE GULF
COAST SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST AND THEN SWINGING MORE NORTHEAST INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE PLAINS...EVENTUALLY BECOMING A FULL
LATITUDE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS BY MONDAY. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONGLOMERATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...BEFORE
DEEPENING RAPIDLY AND LIFTING NORTHEAST...REACHING THE GREAT LAKES BY
MONDAY.

THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL AS AID FROM THE
DAMPENING MID-LEVEL VORT COMING OUT OF THE GULF REGION WILL ALLOW FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. THE GFS
REMAINS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SWATH OF RAINFALL...EXITING IT
QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY THIS EVENING. AM MORE INCLINED TO
SIDE WITH THE SREF...WHICH HAS TRENDED SLOWER IN RECENT RUNS. HAVE
THEREFORE HUNG ONTO POPS LONGER INTO THIS EVENING...BEFORE A WARM
SECTOR LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS THROUGH IN THE
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MOISTURE LOOKS MORE LIMITED AND THE FRONT WILL
BE SHEARING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. AS SUCH...HAVE MAINTAINED MAINLY
CHANCE POPS...WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES IN THE WEST AND LOWER ONES IN
THE EAST.

THE BIGGER IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WIND GUSTS...AS MULTIPLE LOW LEVEL JETS RAMP UP ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN NOW AND MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING STRONG WIND GUSTS
LOOKS TO BE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. WIND GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 45 MPH LOOK ACHIEVABLE GIVEN THE
STRONG WIND FIELDS AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE BEHIND
THE FRONT. AS SUCH WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN AN SPS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST MODEL AGREEMENT RESIDES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH JUST HAPPENS TO COINCIDE WITH THE DRIEST PART
OF THIS FORECAST. THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

THINGS GET A BIT MORE INTERESTING ON WEDNESDAY AS A SHARP TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE GULF COAST STATES WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING. THIS
LOW WILL TRACK NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND COULD
DEVELOP INTO THE FIRST NOR`EASTER OF THE SEASON. MODELS CONTINUE TO
DIFFER ON THE TRACK WITH THE GFS CONTINUING TO BE FARTHER EAST WITH
THE TRACK AND THE ECMWF FARTHER WEST. EVEN THE MOST WESTERN TRACK OF
THE ECMWF WOULD BRING MARGINAL MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...AS A BLEND OF THE TWO SCENARIOS WOULD LIKELY KEEP US DRIER.
IF PRECIPITATION DOES REACH EASTERN KENTUCKY...IT MAY BE PRIMARILY
RAIN AS IT LOOKS TO FALL DURING PEAK HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON.

WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY
THANKSGIVING...IT LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL
DEVELOP LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF QUICK GLANCES OF WARM AND COLD
AIR AS THESE SYSTEMS PASS THROUGH THE REGION. SIMPLY PUT...MODELS ARE
ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH VARIOUS SCENARIOS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GIVEN
THE ACTIVE PATTERN...OPTED TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FORTUNATELY...THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION
LIGHT. IT DOES LOOK A BIT MILDER TOWARDS THE WEEKEND...SO PLAN TO
KEEP PRECIPITATION ALL LIQUID. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SNOW IN THE PERIOD
LOOKS LIKE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING.
AGAIN...PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT...SO NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO BE GENERALLY
BETWEEN VFR/MFVR BETWEEN SHOWERS THAT ROLL THROUGH THE TAF SITES.
OVERNIGHT MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO COME TO A END
THEN POSSIBLE SOME SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES
TOMORROW AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. STRONG SSW WINDS
ALOFT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT BETWEEN
06 AND 12Z. AT THE SURFACE...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE
TOWARDS DAWN MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...DJ








000
FXUS63 KJKL 231456
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
956 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

WSR-88D IS INDICATING A LIGHT BAND SHOWERS WITH LEADING EDGE
GENERALLY FROM STANTON TO FLEMING MOVING NE. GIVEN THAT AND A FEW
OBS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA COMING IN WITH LIGHT
RAIN DID OPT TO GO AHEAD AND EXTEND SLIGHT POPS NORTH. OTHERWISE
FRESHENED UP OTHER ELEMENTS BASED OFF CURRENT OBS DATABASE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 733 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. MAINLY FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...WITH DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND ANOTHER LOW LOCATED NEAR THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.
ALOFT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ROLLING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS...WHILE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING IS MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO
THE PLAINS.

RETURN FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH HAS ALLOWED FOR MILDER
CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE BROADER VALLEYS OUT
WEST AS WELL AS RIDGETOPS...WHILE SOME SHELTERED VALLEYS REMAIN
DECOUPLED IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE STREAMING IN OVERHEAD WITH THE DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW
IN PLACE THROUGH THE COLUMN.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE GULF
COAST SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST AND THEN SWINGING MORE NORTHEAST INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE PLAINS...EVENTUALLY BECOMING A FULL
LATITUDE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS BY MONDAY. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONGLOMERATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...BEFORE
DEEPENING RAPIDLY AND LIFTING NORTHEAST...REACHING THE GREAT LAKES BY
MONDAY.

THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL AS AID FROM THE
DAMPENING MID-LEVEL VORT COMING OUT OF THE GULF REGION WILL ALLOW FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. THE GFS
REMAINS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SWATH OF RAINFALL...EXITING IT
QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY THIS EVENING. AM MORE INCLINED TO
SIDE WITH THE SREF...WHICH HAS TRENDED SLOWER IN RECENT RUNS. HAVE
THEREFORE HUNG ONTO POPS LONGER INTO THIS EVENING...BEFORE A WARM
SECTOR LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS THROUGH IN THE
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MOISTURE LOOKS MORE LIMITED AND THE FRONT WILL
BE SHEARING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. AS SUCH...HAVE MAINTAINED MAINLY
CHANCE POPS...WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES IN THE WEST AND LOWER ONES IN
THE EAST.

THE BIGGER IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WIND GUSTS...AS MULTIPLE LOW LEVEL JETS RAMP UP ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN NOW AND MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING STRONG WIND GUSTS
LOOKS TO BE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. WIND GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 45 MPH LOOK ACHIEVABLE GIVEN THE
STRONG WIND FIELDS AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE BEHIND
THE FRONT. AS SUCH WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN AN SPS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST MODEL AGREEMENT RESIDES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH JUST HAPPENS TO COINCIDE WITH THE DRIEST PART
OF THIS FORECAST. THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

THINGS GET A BIT MORE INTERESTING ON WEDNESDAY AS A SHARP TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE GULF COAST STATES WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING. THIS
LOW WILL TRACK NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND COULD
DEVELOP INTO THE FIRST NOR`EASTER OF THE SEASON. MODELS CONTINUE TO
DIFFER ON THE TRACK WITH THE GFS CONTINUING TO BE FARTHER EAST WITH
THE TRACK AND THE ECMWF FARTHER WEST. EVEN THE MOST WESTERN TRACK OF
THE ECMWF WOULD BRING MARGINAL MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...AS A BLEND OF THE TWO SCENARIOS WOULD LIKELY KEEP US DRIER.
IF PRECIPITATION DOES REACH EASTERN KENTUCKY...IT MAY BE PRIMARILY
RAIN AS IT LOOKS TO FALL DURING PEAK HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON.

WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY
THANKSGIVING...IT LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL
DEVELOP LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF QUICK GLANCES OF WARM AND COLD
AIR AS THESE SYSTEMS PASS THROUGH THE REGION. SIMPLY PUT...MODELS ARE
ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH VARIOUS SCENARIOS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GIVEN
THE ACTIVE PATTERN...OPTED TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FORTUNATELY...THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION
LIGHT. IT DOES LOOK A BIT MILDER TOWARDS THE WEEKEND...SO PLAN TO
KEEP PRECIPITATION ALL LIQUID. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SNOW IN THE PERIOD
LOOKS LIKE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING.
AGAIN...PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT...SO NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 733 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

CEILINGS WILL LOWER WITH TIME AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TODAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL THEN TAPER OFF BETWEEN 06 AND
12Z...WITH CEILINGS LIKELY RETURNING TO VFR BEFORE AN APPROACHING
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL START OUT FROM
SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT
RANGE AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG SSW WINDS ALOFT WILL BRING THE
THREAT OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z. AT THE
SURFACE...WITH WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15
KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE TOWARDS DAWN MONDAY
MORNING.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN








000
FXUS63 KJKL 231456
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
956 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

WSR-88D IS INDICATING A LIGHT BAND SHOWERS WITH LEADING EDGE
GENERALLY FROM STANTON TO FLEMING MOVING NE. GIVEN THAT AND A FEW
OBS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA COMING IN WITH LIGHT
RAIN DID OPT TO GO AHEAD AND EXTEND SLIGHT POPS NORTH. OTHERWISE
FRESHENED UP OTHER ELEMENTS BASED OFF CURRENT OBS DATABASE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 733 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. MAINLY FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...WITH DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND ANOTHER LOW LOCATED NEAR THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.
ALOFT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ROLLING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS...WHILE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING IS MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO
THE PLAINS.

RETURN FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH HAS ALLOWED FOR MILDER
CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE BROADER VALLEYS OUT
WEST AS WELL AS RIDGETOPS...WHILE SOME SHELTERED VALLEYS REMAIN
DECOUPLED IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE STREAMING IN OVERHEAD WITH THE DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW
IN PLACE THROUGH THE COLUMN.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE GULF
COAST SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST AND THEN SWINGING MORE NORTHEAST INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE PLAINS...EVENTUALLY BECOMING A FULL
LATITUDE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS BY MONDAY. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONGLOMERATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...BEFORE
DEEPENING RAPIDLY AND LIFTING NORTHEAST...REACHING THE GREAT LAKES BY
MONDAY.

THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL AS AID FROM THE
DAMPENING MID-LEVEL VORT COMING OUT OF THE GULF REGION WILL ALLOW FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. THE GFS
REMAINS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SWATH OF RAINFALL...EXITING IT
QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY THIS EVENING. AM MORE INCLINED TO
SIDE WITH THE SREF...WHICH HAS TRENDED SLOWER IN RECENT RUNS. HAVE
THEREFORE HUNG ONTO POPS LONGER INTO THIS EVENING...BEFORE A WARM
SECTOR LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS THROUGH IN THE
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MOISTURE LOOKS MORE LIMITED AND THE FRONT WILL
BE SHEARING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. AS SUCH...HAVE MAINTAINED MAINLY
CHANCE POPS...WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES IN THE WEST AND LOWER ONES IN
THE EAST.

THE BIGGER IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WIND GUSTS...AS MULTIPLE LOW LEVEL JETS RAMP UP ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN NOW AND MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING STRONG WIND GUSTS
LOOKS TO BE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. WIND GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 45 MPH LOOK ACHIEVABLE GIVEN THE
STRONG WIND FIELDS AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE BEHIND
THE FRONT. AS SUCH WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN AN SPS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST MODEL AGREEMENT RESIDES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH JUST HAPPENS TO COINCIDE WITH THE DRIEST PART
OF THIS FORECAST. THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

THINGS GET A BIT MORE INTERESTING ON WEDNESDAY AS A SHARP TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE GULF COAST STATES WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING. THIS
LOW WILL TRACK NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND COULD
DEVELOP INTO THE FIRST NOR`EASTER OF THE SEASON. MODELS CONTINUE TO
DIFFER ON THE TRACK WITH THE GFS CONTINUING TO BE FARTHER EAST WITH
THE TRACK AND THE ECMWF FARTHER WEST. EVEN THE MOST WESTERN TRACK OF
THE ECMWF WOULD BRING MARGINAL MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...AS A BLEND OF THE TWO SCENARIOS WOULD LIKELY KEEP US DRIER.
IF PRECIPITATION DOES REACH EASTERN KENTUCKY...IT MAY BE PRIMARILY
RAIN AS IT LOOKS TO FALL DURING PEAK HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON.

WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY
THANKSGIVING...IT LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL
DEVELOP LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF QUICK GLANCES OF WARM AND COLD
AIR AS THESE SYSTEMS PASS THROUGH THE REGION. SIMPLY PUT...MODELS ARE
ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH VARIOUS SCENARIOS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GIVEN
THE ACTIVE PATTERN...OPTED TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FORTUNATELY...THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION
LIGHT. IT DOES LOOK A BIT MILDER TOWARDS THE WEEKEND...SO PLAN TO
KEEP PRECIPITATION ALL LIQUID. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SNOW IN THE PERIOD
LOOKS LIKE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING.
AGAIN...PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT...SO NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 733 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

CEILINGS WILL LOWER WITH TIME AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TODAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL THEN TAPER OFF BETWEEN 06 AND
12Z...WITH CEILINGS LIKELY RETURNING TO VFR BEFORE AN APPROACHING
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL START OUT FROM
SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT
RANGE AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG SSW WINDS ALOFT WILL BRING THE
THREAT OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z. AT THE
SURFACE...WITH WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15
KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE TOWARDS DAWN MONDAY
MORNING.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN







000
FXUS63 KJKL 231233 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
733 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 733 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. MAINLY FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...WITH DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND ANOTHER LOW LOCATED NEAR THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.
ALOFT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ROLLING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS...WHILE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING IS MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO
THE PLAINS.

RETURN FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH HAS ALLOWED FOR MILDER
CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE BROADER VALLEYS OUT
WEST AS WELL AS RIDGETOPS...WHILE SOME SHELTERED VALLEYS REMAIN
DECOUPLED IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE STREAMING IN OVERHEAD WITH THE DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW
IN PLACE THROUGH THE COLUMN.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE GULF
COAST SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST AND THEN SWINGING MORE NORTHEAST INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE PLAINS...EVENTUALLY BECOMING A FULL
LATITUDE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS BY MONDAY. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONGLOMERATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...BEFORE
DEEPENING RAPIDLY AND LIFTING NORTHEAST...REACHING THE GREAT LAKES BY
MONDAY.

THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL AS AID FROM THE
DAMPENING MID-LEVEL VORT COMING OUT OF THE GULF REGION WILL ALLOW FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. THE GFS
REMAINS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SWATH OF RAINFALL...EXITING IT
QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY THIS EVENING. AM MORE INCLINED TO
SIDE WITH THE SREF...WHICH HAS TRENDED SLOWER IN RECENT RUNS. HAVE
THEREFORE HUNG ONTO POPS LONGER INTO THIS EVENING...BEFORE A WARM
SECTOR LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS THROUGH IN THE
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MOISTURE LOOKS MORE LIMITED AND THE FRONT WILL
BE SHEARING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. AS SUCH...HAVE MAINTAINED MAINLY
CHANCE POPS...WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES IN THE WEST AND LOWER ONES IN
THE EAST.

THE BIGGER IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WIND GUSTS...AS MULTIPLE LOW LEVEL JETS RAMP UP ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN NOW AND MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING STRONG WIND GUSTS
LOOKS TO BE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. WIND GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 45 MPH LOOK ACHIEVABLE GIVEN THE
STRONG WIND FIELDS AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE BEHIND
THE FRONT. AS SUCH WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN AN SPS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST MODEL AGREEMENT RESIDES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH JUST HAPPENS TO COINCIDE WITH THE DRIEST PART
OF THIS FORECAST. THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

THINGS GET A BIT MORE INTERESTING ON WEDNESDAY AS A SHARP TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE GULF COAST STATES WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING. THIS
LOW WILL TRACK NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND COULD
DEVELOP INTO THE FIRST NOR`EASTER OF THE SEASON. MODELS CONTINUE TO
DIFFER ON THE TRACK WITH THE GFS CONTINUING TO BE FARTHER EAST WITH
THE TRACK AND THE ECMWF FARTHER WEST. EVEN THE MOST WESTERN TRACK OF
THE ECMWF WOULD BRING MARGINAL MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...AS A BLEND OF THE TWO SCENARIOS WOULD LIKELY KEEP US DRIER.
IF PRECIPITATION DOES REACH EASTERN KENTUCKY...IT MAY BE PRIMARILY
RAIN AS IT LOOKS TO FALL DURING PEAK HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON.

WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY
THANKSGIVING...IT LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL
DEVELOP LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF QUICK GLANCES OF WARM AND COLD
AIR AS THESE SYSTEMS PASS THROUGH THE REGION. SIMPLY PUT...MODELS ARE
ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH VARIOUS SCENARIOS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GIVEN
THE ACTIVE PATTERN...OPTED TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FORTUNATELY...THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION
LIGHT. IT DOES LOOK A BIT MILDER TOWARDS THE WEEKEND...SO PLAN TO
KEEP PRECIPITATION ALL LIQUID. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SNOW IN THE PERIOD
LOOKS LIKE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING.
AGAIN...PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT...SO NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 733 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

CEILINGS WILL LOWER WITH TIME AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TODAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL THEN TAPER OFF BETWEEN 06 AND
12Z...WITH CEILINGS LIKELY RETURNING TO VFR BEFORE AN APPROACHING
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL START OUT FROM
SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT
RANGE AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG SSW WINDS ALOFT WILL BRING THE
THREAT OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z. AT THE
SURFACE...WITH WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15
KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE TOWARDS DAWN MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN








000
FXUS63 KJKL 231233 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
733 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 733 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. MAINLY FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...WITH DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND ANOTHER LOW LOCATED NEAR THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.
ALOFT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ROLLING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS...WHILE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING IS MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO
THE PLAINS.

RETURN FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH HAS ALLOWED FOR MILDER
CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE BROADER VALLEYS OUT
WEST AS WELL AS RIDGETOPS...WHILE SOME SHELTERED VALLEYS REMAIN
DECOUPLED IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE STREAMING IN OVERHEAD WITH THE DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW
IN PLACE THROUGH THE COLUMN.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE GULF
COAST SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST AND THEN SWINGING MORE NORTHEAST INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE PLAINS...EVENTUALLY BECOMING A FULL
LATITUDE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS BY MONDAY. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONGLOMERATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...BEFORE
DEEPENING RAPIDLY AND LIFTING NORTHEAST...REACHING THE GREAT LAKES BY
MONDAY.

THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL AS AID FROM THE
DAMPENING MID-LEVEL VORT COMING OUT OF THE GULF REGION WILL ALLOW FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. THE GFS
REMAINS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SWATH OF RAINFALL...EXITING IT
QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY THIS EVENING. AM MORE INCLINED TO
SIDE WITH THE SREF...WHICH HAS TRENDED SLOWER IN RECENT RUNS. HAVE
THEREFORE HUNG ONTO POPS LONGER INTO THIS EVENING...BEFORE A WARM
SECTOR LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS THROUGH IN THE
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MOISTURE LOOKS MORE LIMITED AND THE FRONT WILL
BE SHEARING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. AS SUCH...HAVE MAINTAINED MAINLY
CHANCE POPS...WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES IN THE WEST AND LOWER ONES IN
THE EAST.

THE BIGGER IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WIND GUSTS...AS MULTIPLE LOW LEVEL JETS RAMP UP ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN NOW AND MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING STRONG WIND GUSTS
LOOKS TO BE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. WIND GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 45 MPH LOOK ACHIEVABLE GIVEN THE
STRONG WIND FIELDS AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE BEHIND
THE FRONT. AS SUCH WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN AN SPS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST MODEL AGREEMENT RESIDES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH JUST HAPPENS TO COINCIDE WITH THE DRIEST PART
OF THIS FORECAST. THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

THINGS GET A BIT MORE INTERESTING ON WEDNESDAY AS A SHARP TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE GULF COAST STATES WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING. THIS
LOW WILL TRACK NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND COULD
DEVELOP INTO THE FIRST NOR`EASTER OF THE SEASON. MODELS CONTINUE TO
DIFFER ON THE TRACK WITH THE GFS CONTINUING TO BE FARTHER EAST WITH
THE TRACK AND THE ECMWF FARTHER WEST. EVEN THE MOST WESTERN TRACK OF
THE ECMWF WOULD BRING MARGINAL MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...AS A BLEND OF THE TWO SCENARIOS WOULD LIKELY KEEP US DRIER.
IF PRECIPITATION DOES REACH EASTERN KENTUCKY...IT MAY BE PRIMARILY
RAIN AS IT LOOKS TO FALL DURING PEAK HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON.

WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY
THANKSGIVING...IT LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL
DEVELOP LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF QUICK GLANCES OF WARM AND COLD
AIR AS THESE SYSTEMS PASS THROUGH THE REGION. SIMPLY PUT...MODELS ARE
ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH VARIOUS SCENARIOS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GIVEN
THE ACTIVE PATTERN...OPTED TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FORTUNATELY...THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION
LIGHT. IT DOES LOOK A BIT MILDER TOWARDS THE WEEKEND...SO PLAN TO
KEEP PRECIPITATION ALL LIQUID. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SNOW IN THE PERIOD
LOOKS LIKE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING.
AGAIN...PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT...SO NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 733 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

CEILINGS WILL LOWER WITH TIME AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TODAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL THEN TAPER OFF BETWEEN 06 AND
12Z...WITH CEILINGS LIKELY RETURNING TO VFR BEFORE AN APPROACHING
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL START OUT FROM
SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT
RANGE AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG SSW WINDS ALOFT WILL BRING THE
THREAT OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z. AT THE
SURFACE...WITH WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15
KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE TOWARDS DAWN MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN









000
FXUS63 KJKL 230835
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
335 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...WITH DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND ANOTHER LOW LOCATED NEAR THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.
ALOFT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ROLLING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS...WHILE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING IS MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO
THE PLAINS.

RETURN FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH HAS ALLOWED FOR MILDER
CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE BROADER VALLEYS OUT
WEST AS WELL AS RIDGETOPS...WHILE SOME SHELTERED VALLEYS REMAIN
DECOUPLED IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE STREAMING IN OVERHEAD WITH THE DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW
IN PLACE THROUGH THE COLUMN.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE GULF
COAST SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST AND THEN SWINGING MORE NORTHEAST INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE PLAINS...EVENTUALLY BECOMING A FULL
LATITUDE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS BY MONDAY. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONGLOMERATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...BEFORE
DEEPENING RAPIDLY AND LIFTING NORTHEAST...REACHING THE GREAT LAKES BY
MONDAY.

THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL AS AID FROM THE
DAMPENING MID-LEVEL VORT COMING OUT OF THE GULF REGION WILL ALLOW FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. THE GFS
REMAINS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SWATH OF RAINFALL...EXITING IT
QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY THIS EVENING. AM MORE INCLINED TO
SIDE WITH THE SREF...WHICH HAS TRENDED SLOWER IN RECENT RUNS. HAVE
THEREFORE HUNG ONTO POPS LONGER INTO THIS EVENING...BEFORE A WARM
SECTOR LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS THROUGH IN THE
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MOISTURE LOOKS MORE LIMITED AND THE FRONT WILL
BE SHEARING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. AS SUCH...HAVE MAINTAINED MAINLY
CHANCE POPS...WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES IN THE WEST AND LOWER ONES IN
THE EAST.

THE BIGGER IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WIND GUSTS...AS MULTIPLE LOW LEVEL JETS RAMP UP ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN NOW AND MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING STRONG WIND GUSTS
LOOKS TO BE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. WIND GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 45 MPH LOOK ACHIEVABLE GIVEN THE
STRONG WIND FIELDS AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE BEHIND
THE FRONT. AS SUCH WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN AN SPS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST MODEL AGREEMENT RESIDES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH JUST HAPPENS TO COINCIDE WITH THE DRIEST PART
OF THIS FORECAST. THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

THINGS GET A BIT MORE INTERESTING ON WEDNESDAY AS A SHARP TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE GULF COAST STATES WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING. THIS
LOW WILL TRACK NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND COULD
DEVELOP INTO THE FIRST NOR`EASTER OF THE SEASON. MODELS CONTINUE TO
DIFFER ON THE TRACK WITH THE GFS CONTINUING TO BE FARTHER EAST WITH
THE TRACK AND THE ECMWF FARTHER WEST. EVEN THE MOST WESTERN TRACK OF
THE ECMWF WOULD BRING MARGINAL MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...AS A BLEND OF THE TWO SCENARIOS WOULD LIKELY KEEP US DRIER.
IF PRECIPITATION DOES REACH EASTERN KENTUCKY...IT MAY BE PRIMARILY
RAIN AS IT LOOKS TO FALL DURING PEAK HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON.

WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY
THANKSGIVING...IT LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL
DEVELOP LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF QUICK GLANCES OF WARM AND COLD
AIR AS THESE SYSTEMS PASS THROUGH THE REGION. SIMPLY PUT...MODELS ARE
ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH VARIOUS SCENARIOS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GIVEN
THE ACTIVE PATTERN...OPTED TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FORTUNATELY...THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION
LIGHT. IT DOES LOOK A BIT MILDER TOWARDS THE WEEKEND...SO PLAN TO
KEEP PRECIPITATION ALL LIQUID. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SNOW IN THE PERIOD
LOOKS LIKE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING.
AGAIN...PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT...SO NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND LOWER WITH TIME AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EVENTUALLY ACCOMPANYING THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY BETWEEN 18 AND 00Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...RANGING BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN








000
FXUS63 KJKL 230835
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
335 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...WITH DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND ANOTHER LOW LOCATED NEAR THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.
ALOFT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ROLLING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS...WHILE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING IS MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO
THE PLAINS.

RETURN FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH HAS ALLOWED FOR MILDER
CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE BROADER VALLEYS OUT
WEST AS WELL AS RIDGETOPS...WHILE SOME SHELTERED VALLEYS REMAIN
DECOUPLED IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE STREAMING IN OVERHEAD WITH THE DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW
IN PLACE THROUGH THE COLUMN.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE GULF
COAST SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST AND THEN SWINGING MORE NORTHEAST INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE PLAINS...EVENTUALLY BECOMING A FULL
LATITUDE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS BY MONDAY. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONGLOMERATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...BEFORE
DEEPENING RAPIDLY AND LIFTING NORTHEAST...REACHING THE GREAT LAKES BY
MONDAY.

THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL AS AID FROM THE
DAMPENING MID-LEVEL VORT COMING OUT OF THE GULF REGION WILL ALLOW FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. THE GFS
REMAINS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SWATH OF RAINFALL...EXITING IT
QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY THIS EVENING. AM MORE INCLINED TO
SIDE WITH THE SREF...WHICH HAS TRENDED SLOWER IN RECENT RUNS. HAVE
THEREFORE HUNG ONTO POPS LONGER INTO THIS EVENING...BEFORE A WARM
SECTOR LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS THROUGH IN THE
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MOISTURE LOOKS MORE LIMITED AND THE FRONT WILL
BE SHEARING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. AS SUCH...HAVE MAINTAINED MAINLY
CHANCE POPS...WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES IN THE WEST AND LOWER ONES IN
THE EAST.

THE BIGGER IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WIND GUSTS...AS MULTIPLE LOW LEVEL JETS RAMP UP ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN NOW AND MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING STRONG WIND GUSTS
LOOKS TO BE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. WIND GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 45 MPH LOOK ACHIEVABLE GIVEN THE
STRONG WIND FIELDS AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE BEHIND
THE FRONT. AS SUCH WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN AN SPS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST MODEL AGREEMENT RESIDES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH JUST HAPPENS TO COINCIDE WITH THE DRIEST PART
OF THIS FORECAST. THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

THINGS GET A BIT MORE INTERESTING ON WEDNESDAY AS A SHARP TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE GULF COAST STATES WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING. THIS
LOW WILL TRACK NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND COULD
DEVELOP INTO THE FIRST NOR`EASTER OF THE SEASON. MODELS CONTINUE TO
DIFFER ON THE TRACK WITH THE GFS CONTINUING TO BE FARTHER EAST WITH
THE TRACK AND THE ECMWF FARTHER WEST. EVEN THE MOST WESTERN TRACK OF
THE ECMWF WOULD BRING MARGINAL MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...AS A BLEND OF THE TWO SCENARIOS WOULD LIKELY KEEP US DRIER.
IF PRECIPITATION DOES REACH EASTERN KENTUCKY...IT MAY BE PRIMARILY
RAIN AS IT LOOKS TO FALL DURING PEAK HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON.

WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY
THANKSGIVING...IT LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL
DEVELOP LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF QUICK GLANCES OF WARM AND COLD
AIR AS THESE SYSTEMS PASS THROUGH THE REGION. SIMPLY PUT...MODELS ARE
ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH VARIOUS SCENARIOS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GIVEN
THE ACTIVE PATTERN...OPTED TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FORTUNATELY...THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION
LIGHT. IT DOES LOOK A BIT MILDER TOWARDS THE WEEKEND...SO PLAN TO
KEEP PRECIPITATION ALL LIQUID. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SNOW IN THE PERIOD
LOOKS LIKE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING.
AGAIN...PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT...SO NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND LOWER WITH TIME AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EVENTUALLY ACCOMPANYING THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY BETWEEN 18 AND 00Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...RANGING BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN







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