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000
FXUS63 KJKL 211333
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
933 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

EXPECT INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
WAVE. THOUGH A BIT MORE CLOUDY...TEMPS LOOK TO BE A BIT WARMER AS MOS
DATA LOOKS TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE FORECAST THIS MORNING. HAVE
GONE AHEAD AND ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS FOR THIS MORNING
UPDATE. A NEW ZFP WILL NOT BE NEEDED AT THIS POINT AND THE NEWEST OBS
HAVE BEEN UPLOADED AND GRIDS SENT TO NDFD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

DID ONE LAST TOUCH UP TO THE GRIDS EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE THE DAY
SHIFT TAKES OVER. THIS MAINLY CONSISTED OF FINE TUNING THE UPCOMING T
AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER
THROUGH MORNING FOR THE NEXT BATCH OF THICKER HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
INTO THE AREA. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING ON OVER
EAST KENTUCKY IN THE FACE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE FROM THE
PLAINS. ON SATELLITE...PATCHES OF HIGH...AND MOSTLY THIN...CLOUDS
ARE DRIFTING OVER EAST KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR A GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...
ESTABLISHING A MODERATE TO LARGE RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCE ACROSS THE CWA. CURRENTLY...READINGS RANGE FROM THE LOWER
40S IN THE MOST SHELTERED VALLEYS IN THE EAST TO THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S ON THE RIDGES...WHILE MORE OPEN AREAS ARE GENERALLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...VARY FROM THE UPPER 20S ON
THE RIDGES IN THE EAST TO MID 40S IN THE WEST AND THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRANSFER
OF ENERGY FROM A DAMPENING SOUTHERN PLAINS TROUGH TO A MORE WELL
DEFINED ONE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA LATER TODAY.
THE REMNANTS OF THE MORE SOUTHERN REFLECTION WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING...BUT THE MAIN IMPETUS FOR WEATHER IN
KENTUCKY WILL BE FROM THE MORE NORTHERN TROUGH...AND ITS HEIGHT
FALLS...THAT CUTS THROUGH THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY EVENING.
ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH THE MODELS AS THIS
PATTERN ADJUSTMENT OCCURS THEY DO AGREE ON THE BROADER FEATURES AND
TIMING. AS SUCH...A GENERAL MODEL BLEND WAS FAVORED FOR THE SHORT
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ONE LAST PLEASANT...WARM...AND MOSTLY
DRY DAY THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SENDS
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS INTO THE AREA BY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE
WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...BUT HUMIDITIES WILL STILL
BE ABLE TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ACROSS THE AREA
AHEAD OF ANY SHOWERS INBOUND FOR THE EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT...THOUGH...LIMITING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OR
OPPORTUNITIES. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING AS THE
FRONT PRESSES IN AND THE FIRST POCKET OF WEAK MID LEVEL ENERGY
CROSSES THE AREA. A BETTER CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAINS OF ANY
SIGNIFICANCE ARRIVES TOWARD DAWN AS THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
EAST KENTUCKY. THIS FRONT MAY BE ABLE TO POP OFF A FEW GARDEN VARIETY
THUNDERSTORMS AS IT PASSES OWING MAINLY TO LIS APPROACHING -3 AND
CAPES NEAR 1000 J/KG...BUT WE WILL LACK A DECENT WIND FIELD AND
STRONGER SFC CONVERGENCE THAT COULD DRIVE BETTER CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE LIMITED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
TO RIGHT ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO THE DAY TUESDAY. THE FRONT AND ITS
MAINLY SHOWERS MOVES ON THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY BY EARLY AFTERNOON
TUESDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW. AROUND A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OF RAIN ON AVERAGE IS EXPECTED FROM THIS SYSTEM...SO MANY PLACES
WILL LIKELY NOT EVEN SEE A GOOD SOAKING...KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIRLY
DRY HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PARTS OF THE WEEK.

USED A DIURNAL FROM OBS SCHEME FOR HOURLY TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MORNING GIVEN THE WIDE VARIANCE BETWEEN RIDGES AND VALLEYS CURRENTLY
UNDER WAY. AFTER THAT...FAVORED THE CURVE FROM THE NAM12 THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. DID START OUT WITH THE BIAS
CORRECTED CONSSHORT GUIDANCE FOR THE DEWPOINTS AND WIND GRIDS FOR THE
FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST FOLLOWED BY THE BC/CONSALL THEREAFTER.
THE DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED LOWER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON PER RECENT
BEHAVIOR. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP MOST SIMILAR TO THE HIGHER MAV
NUMBERS THROUGH TUESDAY RATHER THAN THE MORE MEAGER MET GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
TRANSIENT RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE GIVING WAY TO A TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
BY FRIDAY. MODELS THEN HANDLE THIS TROUGH DIFFERENTLY HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND AND OUR CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE WEEKEND
FORECAST DROPS OFF QUITE A BIT.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. WE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES EACH AFTERNOON AS WELL. A STRUNG OUT COLD FRONT IS
THEN PROGGED TO PASS QUICKLY THROUGH OUR AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MODEL GENERATED QPF IS LEAN...AS IS
INSTABILITY...AND ONLY EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AS THE FRONT PASSES. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...
FORECAST MODELS THEN PAINT DIFFERENT SCENARIOS OVER THE
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY WHEN LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES. FOR INSTANCE...
RAW MODEL TEMPS ON THE 21/00Z GFS KEEP US IN THE 50S ON SUNDAY WHILE
THE 21/00Z ECMWF IS AROUND 80. A MODEL BLEND SEEMS PRUDENT. THIS
BLEND RESULTS IN A DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY WITH A RETURN TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE BULK OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
DRIFT OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING...INCREASE AND THICKEN. MOISTURE
WILL THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A CU DECK DEVELOPING AROUND 5 KT
FEET AGL BY LATE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND
THICKEN DURING THE EVENING...WITH SHOWERS A POSSIBILITY BEFORE
MIDNIGHT AT MOST PLACES. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS. WINDS WILL PICK UP
A BIT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY MID AFTERNOON...CONTINUING AT 5
TO 10 KTS FROM THAT DIRECTION INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GREIF







000
FXUS63 KJKL 211333
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
933 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

EXPECT INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
WAVE. THOUGH A BIT MORE CLOUDY...TEMPS LOOK TO BE A BIT WARMER AS MOS
DATA LOOKS TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE FORECAST THIS MORNING. HAVE
GONE AHEAD AND ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS FOR THIS MORNING
UPDATE. A NEW ZFP WILL NOT BE NEEDED AT THIS POINT AND THE NEWEST OBS
HAVE BEEN UPLOADED AND GRIDS SENT TO NDFD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

DID ONE LAST TOUCH UP TO THE GRIDS EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE THE DAY
SHIFT TAKES OVER. THIS MAINLY CONSISTED OF FINE TUNING THE UPCOMING T
AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER
THROUGH MORNING FOR THE NEXT BATCH OF THICKER HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
INTO THE AREA. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING ON OVER
EAST KENTUCKY IN THE FACE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE FROM THE
PLAINS. ON SATELLITE...PATCHES OF HIGH...AND MOSTLY THIN...CLOUDS
ARE DRIFTING OVER EAST KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR A GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...
ESTABLISHING A MODERATE TO LARGE RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCE ACROSS THE CWA. CURRENTLY...READINGS RANGE FROM THE LOWER
40S IN THE MOST SHELTERED VALLEYS IN THE EAST TO THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S ON THE RIDGES...WHILE MORE OPEN AREAS ARE GENERALLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...VARY FROM THE UPPER 20S ON
THE RIDGES IN THE EAST TO MID 40S IN THE WEST AND THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRANSFER
OF ENERGY FROM A DAMPENING SOUTHERN PLAINS TROUGH TO A MORE WELL
DEFINED ONE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA LATER TODAY.
THE REMNANTS OF THE MORE SOUTHERN REFLECTION WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING...BUT THE MAIN IMPETUS FOR WEATHER IN
KENTUCKY WILL BE FROM THE MORE NORTHERN TROUGH...AND ITS HEIGHT
FALLS...THAT CUTS THROUGH THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY EVENING.
ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH THE MODELS AS THIS
PATTERN ADJUSTMENT OCCURS THEY DO AGREE ON THE BROADER FEATURES AND
TIMING. AS SUCH...A GENERAL MODEL BLEND WAS FAVORED FOR THE SHORT
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ONE LAST PLEASANT...WARM...AND MOSTLY
DRY DAY THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SENDS
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS INTO THE AREA BY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE
WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...BUT HUMIDITIES WILL STILL
BE ABLE TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ACROSS THE AREA
AHEAD OF ANY SHOWERS INBOUND FOR THE EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT...THOUGH...LIMITING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OR
OPPORTUNITIES. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING AS THE
FRONT PRESSES IN AND THE FIRST POCKET OF WEAK MID LEVEL ENERGY
CROSSES THE AREA. A BETTER CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAINS OF ANY
SIGNIFICANCE ARRIVES TOWARD DAWN AS THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
EAST KENTUCKY. THIS FRONT MAY BE ABLE TO POP OFF A FEW GARDEN VARIETY
THUNDERSTORMS AS IT PASSES OWING MAINLY TO LIS APPROACHING -3 AND
CAPES NEAR 1000 J/KG...BUT WE WILL LACK A DECENT WIND FIELD AND
STRONGER SFC CONVERGENCE THAT COULD DRIVE BETTER CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE LIMITED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
TO RIGHT ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO THE DAY TUESDAY. THE FRONT AND ITS
MAINLY SHOWERS MOVES ON THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY BY EARLY AFTERNOON
TUESDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW. AROUND A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OF RAIN ON AVERAGE IS EXPECTED FROM THIS SYSTEM...SO MANY PLACES
WILL LIKELY NOT EVEN SEE A GOOD SOAKING...KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIRLY
DRY HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PARTS OF THE WEEK.

USED A DIURNAL FROM OBS SCHEME FOR HOURLY TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MORNING GIVEN THE WIDE VARIANCE BETWEEN RIDGES AND VALLEYS CURRENTLY
UNDER WAY. AFTER THAT...FAVORED THE CURVE FROM THE NAM12 THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. DID START OUT WITH THE BIAS
CORRECTED CONSSHORT GUIDANCE FOR THE DEWPOINTS AND WIND GRIDS FOR THE
FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST FOLLOWED BY THE BC/CONSALL THEREAFTER.
THE DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED LOWER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON PER RECENT
BEHAVIOR. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP MOST SIMILAR TO THE HIGHER MAV
NUMBERS THROUGH TUESDAY RATHER THAN THE MORE MEAGER MET GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
TRANSIENT RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE GIVING WAY TO A TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
BY FRIDAY. MODELS THEN HANDLE THIS TROUGH DIFFERENTLY HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND AND OUR CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE WEEKEND
FORECAST DROPS OFF QUITE A BIT.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. WE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES EACH AFTERNOON AS WELL. A STRUNG OUT COLD FRONT IS
THEN PROGGED TO PASS QUICKLY THROUGH OUR AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MODEL GENERATED QPF IS LEAN...AS IS
INSTABILITY...AND ONLY EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AS THE FRONT PASSES. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...
FORECAST MODELS THEN PAINT DIFFERENT SCENARIOS OVER THE
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY WHEN LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES. FOR INSTANCE...
RAW MODEL TEMPS ON THE 21/00Z GFS KEEP US IN THE 50S ON SUNDAY WHILE
THE 21/00Z ECMWF IS AROUND 80. A MODEL BLEND SEEMS PRUDENT. THIS
BLEND RESULTS IN A DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY WITH A RETURN TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE BULK OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
DRIFT OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING...INCREASE AND THICKEN. MOISTURE
WILL THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A CU DECK DEVELOPING AROUND 5 KT
FEET AGL BY LATE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND
THICKEN DURING THE EVENING...WITH SHOWERS A POSSIBILITY BEFORE
MIDNIGHT AT MOST PLACES. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS. WINDS WILL PICK UP
A BIT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY MID AFTERNOON...CONTINUING AT 5
TO 10 KTS FROM THAT DIRECTION INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GREIF








000
FXUS63 KJKL 211155 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
755 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

DID ONE LAST TOUCH UP TO THE GRIDS EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE THE DAY
SHIFT TAKES OVER. THIS MAINLY CONSISTED OF FINE TUNING THE UPCOMING T
AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER
THROUGH MORNING FOR THE NEXT BATCH OF THICKER HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
INTO THE AREA. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING ON OVER
EAST KENTUCKY IN THE FACE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE FROM THE
PLAINS. ON SATELLITE...PATCHES OF HIGH...AND MOSTLY THIN...CLOUDS
ARE DRIFTING OVER EAST KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR A GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...
ESTABLISHING A MODERATE TO LARGE RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCE ACROSS THE CWA. CURRENTLY...READINGS RANGE FROM THE LOWER
40S IN THE MOST SHELTERED VALLEYS IN THE EAST TO THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S ON THE RIDGES...WHILE MORE OPEN AREAS ARE GENERALLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...VARY FROM THE UPPER 20S ON
THE RIDGES IN THE EAST TO MID 40S IN THE WEST AND THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRANSFER
OF ENERGY FROM A DAMPENING SOUTHERN PLAINS TROUGH TO A MORE WELL
DEFINED ONE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA LATER TODAY.
THE REMNANTS OF THE MORE SOUTHERN REFLECTION WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING...BUT THE MAIN IMPETUS FOR WEATHER IN
KENTUCKY WILL BE FROM THE MORE NORTHERN TROUGH...AND ITS HEIGHT
FALLS...THAT CUTS THROUGH THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY EVENING.
ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH THE MODELS AS THIS
PATTERN ADJUSTMENT OCCURS THEY DO AGREE ON THE BROADER FEATURES AND
TIMING. AS SUCH...A GENERAL MODEL BLEND WAS FAVORED FOR THE SHORT
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ONE LAST PLEASANT...WARM...AND MOSTLY
DRY DAY THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SENDS
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS INTO THE AREA BY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE
WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...BUT HUMIDITIES WILL STILL
BE ABLE TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ACROSS THE AREA
AHEAD OF ANY SHOWERS INBOUND FOR THE EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT...THOUGH...LIMITING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OR
OPPORTUNITIES. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING AS THE
FRONT PRESSES IN AND THE FIRST POCKET OF WEAK MID LEVEL ENERGY
CROSSES THE AREA. A BETTER CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAINS OF ANY
SIGNIFICANCE ARRIVES TOWARD DAWN AS THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
EAST KENTUCKY. THIS FRONT MAY BE ABLE TO POP OFF A FEW GARDEN VARIETY
THUNDERSTORMS AS IT PASSES OWING MAINLY TO LIS APPROACHING -3 AND
CAPES NEAR 1000 J/KG...BUT WE WILL LACK A DECENT WIND FIELD AND
STRONGER SFC CONVERGENCE THAT COULD DRIVE BETTER CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE LIMITED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
TO RIGHT ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO THE DAY TUESDAY. THE FRONT AND ITS
MAINLY SHOWERS MOVES ON THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY BY EARLY AFTERNOON
TUESDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW. AROUND A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OF RAIN ON AVERAGE IS EXPECTED FROM THIS SYSTEM...SO MANY PLACES
WILL LIKELY NOT EVEN SEE A GOOD SOAKING...KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIRLY
DRY HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PARTS OF THE WEEK.

USED A DIURNAL FROM OBS SCHEME FOR HOURLY TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MORNING GIVEN THE WIDE VARIANCE BETWEEN RIDGES AND VALLEYS CURRENTLY
UNDER WAY. AFTER THAT...FAVORED THE CURVE FROM THE NAM12 THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. DID START OUT WITH THE BIAS
CORRECTED CONSSHORT GUIDANCE FOR THE DEWPOINTS AND WIND GRIDS FOR THE
FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST FOLLOWED BY THE BC/CONSALL THEREAFTER.
THE DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED LOWER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON PER RECENT
BEHAVIOR. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP MOST SIMILAR TO THE HIGHER MAV
NUMBERS THROUGH TUESDAY RATHER THAN THE MORE MEAGER MET GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
TRANSIENT RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE GIVING WAY TO A TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
BY FRIDAY. MODELS THEN HANDLE THIS TROUGH DIFFERENTLY HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND AND OUR CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE WEEKEND
FORECAST DROPS OFF QUITE A BIT.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. WE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES EACH AFTERNOON AS WELL. A STRUNG OUT COLD FRONT IS
THEN PROGGED TO PASS QUICKLY THROUGH OUR AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MODEL GENERATED QPF IS LEAN...AS IS
INSTABILITY...AND ONLY EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AS THE FRONT PASSES. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...
FORECAST MODELS THEN PAINT DIFFERENT SCENARIOS OVER THE
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY WHEN LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES. FOR INSTANCE...
RAW MODEL TEMPS ON THE 21/00Z GFS KEEP US IN THE 50S ON SUNDAY WHILE
THE 21/00Z ECMWF IS AROUND 80. A MODEL BLEND SEEMS PRUDENT. THIS
BLEND RESULTS IN A DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY WITH A RETURN TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE BULK OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
DRIFT OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING...INCREASE AND THICKEN. MOISTURE
WILL THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A CU DECK DEVELOPING AROUND 5 KT
FEET AGL BY LATE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND
THICKEN DURING THE EVENING...WITH SHOWERS A POSSIBILITY BEFORE
MIDNIGHT AT MOST PLACES. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS. WINDS WILL PICK UP
A BIT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY MID AFTERNOON...CONTINUING AT 5
TO 10 KTS FROM THAT DIRECTION INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GREIF







000
FXUS63 KJKL 211155 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
755 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

DID ONE LAST TOUCH UP TO THE GRIDS EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE THE DAY
SHIFT TAKES OVER. THIS MAINLY CONSISTED OF FINE TUNING THE UPCOMING T
AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER
THROUGH MORNING FOR THE NEXT BATCH OF THICKER HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
INTO THE AREA. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING ON OVER
EAST KENTUCKY IN THE FACE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE FROM THE
PLAINS. ON SATELLITE...PATCHES OF HIGH...AND MOSTLY THIN...CLOUDS
ARE DRIFTING OVER EAST KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR A GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...
ESTABLISHING A MODERATE TO LARGE RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCE ACROSS THE CWA. CURRENTLY...READINGS RANGE FROM THE LOWER
40S IN THE MOST SHELTERED VALLEYS IN THE EAST TO THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S ON THE RIDGES...WHILE MORE OPEN AREAS ARE GENERALLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...VARY FROM THE UPPER 20S ON
THE RIDGES IN THE EAST TO MID 40S IN THE WEST AND THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRANSFER
OF ENERGY FROM A DAMPENING SOUTHERN PLAINS TROUGH TO A MORE WELL
DEFINED ONE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA LATER TODAY.
THE REMNANTS OF THE MORE SOUTHERN REFLECTION WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING...BUT THE MAIN IMPETUS FOR WEATHER IN
KENTUCKY WILL BE FROM THE MORE NORTHERN TROUGH...AND ITS HEIGHT
FALLS...THAT CUTS THROUGH THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY EVENING.
ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH THE MODELS AS THIS
PATTERN ADJUSTMENT OCCURS THEY DO AGREE ON THE BROADER FEATURES AND
TIMING. AS SUCH...A GENERAL MODEL BLEND WAS FAVORED FOR THE SHORT
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ONE LAST PLEASANT...WARM...AND MOSTLY
DRY DAY THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SENDS
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS INTO THE AREA BY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE
WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...BUT HUMIDITIES WILL STILL
BE ABLE TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ACROSS THE AREA
AHEAD OF ANY SHOWERS INBOUND FOR THE EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT...THOUGH...LIMITING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OR
OPPORTUNITIES. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING AS THE
FRONT PRESSES IN AND THE FIRST POCKET OF WEAK MID LEVEL ENERGY
CROSSES THE AREA. A BETTER CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAINS OF ANY
SIGNIFICANCE ARRIVES TOWARD DAWN AS THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
EAST KENTUCKY. THIS FRONT MAY BE ABLE TO POP OFF A FEW GARDEN VARIETY
THUNDERSTORMS AS IT PASSES OWING MAINLY TO LIS APPROACHING -3 AND
CAPES NEAR 1000 J/KG...BUT WE WILL LACK A DECENT WIND FIELD AND
STRONGER SFC CONVERGENCE THAT COULD DRIVE BETTER CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE LIMITED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
TO RIGHT ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO THE DAY TUESDAY. THE FRONT AND ITS
MAINLY SHOWERS MOVES ON THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY BY EARLY AFTERNOON
TUESDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW. AROUND A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OF RAIN ON AVERAGE IS EXPECTED FROM THIS SYSTEM...SO MANY PLACES
WILL LIKELY NOT EVEN SEE A GOOD SOAKING...KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIRLY
DRY HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PARTS OF THE WEEK.

USED A DIURNAL FROM OBS SCHEME FOR HOURLY TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MORNING GIVEN THE WIDE VARIANCE BETWEEN RIDGES AND VALLEYS CURRENTLY
UNDER WAY. AFTER THAT...FAVORED THE CURVE FROM THE NAM12 THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. DID START OUT WITH THE BIAS
CORRECTED CONSSHORT GUIDANCE FOR THE DEWPOINTS AND WIND GRIDS FOR THE
FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST FOLLOWED BY THE BC/CONSALL THEREAFTER.
THE DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED LOWER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON PER RECENT
BEHAVIOR. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP MOST SIMILAR TO THE HIGHER MAV
NUMBERS THROUGH TUESDAY RATHER THAN THE MORE MEAGER MET GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
TRANSIENT RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE GIVING WAY TO A TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
BY FRIDAY. MODELS THEN HANDLE THIS TROUGH DIFFERENTLY HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND AND OUR CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE WEEKEND
FORECAST DROPS OFF QUITE A BIT.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. WE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES EACH AFTERNOON AS WELL. A STRUNG OUT COLD FRONT IS
THEN PROGGED TO PASS QUICKLY THROUGH OUR AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MODEL GENERATED QPF IS LEAN...AS IS
INSTABILITY...AND ONLY EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AS THE FRONT PASSES. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...
FORECAST MODELS THEN PAINT DIFFERENT SCENARIOS OVER THE
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY WHEN LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES. FOR INSTANCE...
RAW MODEL TEMPS ON THE 21/00Z GFS KEEP US IN THE 50S ON SUNDAY WHILE
THE 21/00Z ECMWF IS AROUND 80. A MODEL BLEND SEEMS PRUDENT. THIS
BLEND RESULTS IN A DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY WITH A RETURN TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE BULK OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
DRIFT OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING...INCREASE AND THICKEN. MOISTURE
WILL THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A CU DECK DEVELOPING AROUND 5 KT
FEET AGL BY LATE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND
THICKEN DURING THE EVENING...WITH SHOWERS A POSSIBILITY BEFORE
MIDNIGHT AT MOST PLACES. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS. WINDS WILL PICK UP
A BIT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY MID AFTERNOON...CONTINUING AT 5
TO 10 KTS FROM THAT DIRECTION INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GREIF








000
FXUS63 KJKL 210730 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
330 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING ON OVER
EAST KENTUCKY IN THE FACE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE FROM THE
PLAINS. ON SATELLITE...PATCHES OF HIGH...AND MOSTLY THIN...CLOUDS
ARE DRIFTING OVER EAST KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR A GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...
ESTABLISHING A MODERATE TO LARGE RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCE ACROSS THE CWA. CURRENTLY...READINGS RANGE FROM THE LOWER
40S IN THE MOST SHELTERED VALLEYS IN THE EAST TO THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S ON THE RIDGES...WHILE MORE OPEN AREAS ARE GENERALLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...VARY FROM THE UPPER 20S ON
THE RIDGES IN THE EAST TO MID 40S IN THE WEST AND THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRANSFER
OF ENERGY FROM A DAMPENING SOUTHERN PLAINS TROUGH TO A MORE WELL
DEFINED ONE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA LATER TODAY.
THE REMNANTS OF THE MORE SOUTHERN REFLECTION WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING...BUT THE MAIN IMPETUS FOR WEATHER IN
KENTUCKY WILL BE FROM THE MORE NORTHERN TROUGH...AND ITS HEIGHT
FALLS...THAT CUTS THROUGH THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY EVENING.
ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH THE MODELS AS THIS
PATTERN ADJUSTMENT OCCURS THEY DO AGREE ON THE BROADER FEATURES AND
TIMING. AS SUCH...A GENERAL MODEL BLEND WAS FAVORED FOR THE SHORT
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ONE LAST PLEASANT...WARM...AND MOSTLY
DRY DAY THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SENDS
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS INTO THE AREA BY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE
WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...BUT HUMIDITIES WILL STILL
BE ABLE TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ACROSS THE AREA
AHEAD OF ANY SHOWERS INBOUND FOR THE EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT...THOUGH...LIMITING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OR
OPPORTUNITIES. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING AS THE
FRONT PRESSES IN AND THE FIRST POCKET OF WEAK MID LEVEL ENERGY
CROSSES THE AREA. A BETTER CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAINS OF ANY
SIGNIFICANCE ARRIVES TOWARD DAWN AS THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
EAST KENTUCKY. THIS FRONT MAY BE ABLE TO POP OFF A FEW GARDEN VARIETY
THUNDERSTORMS AS IT PASSES OWING MAINLY TO LIS APPROACHING -3 AND
CAPES NEAR 1000 J/KG...BUT WE WILL LACK A DECENT WIND FIELD AND
STRONGER SFC CONVERGENCE THAT COULD DRIVE BETTER CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE LIMITED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
TO RIGHT ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO THE DAY TUESDAY. THE FRONT AND ITS
MAINLY SHOWERS MOVES ON THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY BY EARLY AFTERNOON
TUESDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW. AROUND A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OF RAIN ON AVERAGE IS EXPECTED FROM THIS SYSTEM...SO MANY PLACES
WILL LIKELY NOT EVEN SEE A GOOD SOAKING...KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIRLY
DRY HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PARTS OF THE WEEK.

USED A DIURNAL FROM OBS SCHEME FOR HOURLY TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MORNING GIVEN THE WIDE VARIANCE BETWEEN RIDGES AND VALLEYS CURRENTLY
UNDER WAY. AFTER THAT...FAVORED THE CURVE FROM THE NAM12 THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. DID START OUT WITH THE BIAS
CORRECTED CONSSHORT GUIDANCE FOR THE DEWPOINTS AND WIND GRIDS FOR THE
FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST FOLLOWED BY THE BC/CONSALL THEREAFTER.
THE DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED LOWER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON PER RECENT
BEHAVIOR. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP MOST SIMILAR TO THE HIGHER MAV
NUMBERS THROUGH TUESDAY RATHER THAN THE MORE MEAGER MET GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
TRANSIENT RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE GIVING WAY TO A TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
BY FRIDAY. MODELS THEN HANDLE THIS TROUGH DIFFERENTLY HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND AND OUR CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE WEEKEND
FORECAST DROPS OFF QUITE A BIT.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. WE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES EACH AFTERNOON AS WELL. A STRUNG OUT COLD FRONT IS
THEN PROGGED TO PASS QUICKLY THROUGH OUR AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MODEL GENERATED QPF IS LEAN...AS IS
INSTABILITY...AND ONLY EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AS THE FRONT PASSES. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...
FORECAST MODELS THEN PAINT DIFFERENT SCENARIOS OVER THE
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY WHEN LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES. FOR INSTANCE...
RAW MODEL TEMPS ON THE 21/00Z GFS KEEP US IN THE 50S ON SUNDAY WHILE
THE 21/00Z ECMWF IS AROUND 80. A MODEL BLEND SEEMS PRUDENT. THIS
BLEND RESULTS IN A DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY WITH A RETURN TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEPART. INCONSEQUENTIAL PATCHES OF
THIN HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
MOISTURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A CU DECK DEVELOPING
BETWEEN 4 AND 6KT FEET MSL BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THICKEN DURING THE EVENING...WITH SHOWERS A
POSSIBILITY BEFORE MIDNIGHT AT MOST PLACES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP A BIT FROM
THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY MID AFTERNOON MONDAY...CONTINUING AT 5 TO 10
KTS FROM THAT DIRECTION INTO THE EVENING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GREIF






000
FXUS63 KJKL 210730 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
330 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING ON OVER
EAST KENTUCKY IN THE FACE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE FROM THE
PLAINS. ON SATELLITE...PATCHES OF HIGH...AND MOSTLY THIN...CLOUDS
ARE DRIFTING OVER EAST KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR A GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...
ESTABLISHING A MODERATE TO LARGE RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCE ACROSS THE CWA. CURRENTLY...READINGS RANGE FROM THE LOWER
40S IN THE MOST SHELTERED VALLEYS IN THE EAST TO THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S ON THE RIDGES...WHILE MORE OPEN AREAS ARE GENERALLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...VARY FROM THE UPPER 20S ON
THE RIDGES IN THE EAST TO MID 40S IN THE WEST AND THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRANSFER
OF ENERGY FROM A DAMPENING SOUTHERN PLAINS TROUGH TO A MORE WELL
DEFINED ONE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA LATER TODAY.
THE REMNANTS OF THE MORE SOUTHERN REFLECTION WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING...BUT THE MAIN IMPETUS FOR WEATHER IN
KENTUCKY WILL BE FROM THE MORE NORTHERN TROUGH...AND ITS HEIGHT
FALLS...THAT CUTS THROUGH THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY EVENING.
ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH THE MODELS AS THIS
PATTERN ADJUSTMENT OCCURS THEY DO AGREE ON THE BROADER FEATURES AND
TIMING. AS SUCH...A GENERAL MODEL BLEND WAS FAVORED FOR THE SHORT
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ONE LAST PLEASANT...WARM...AND MOSTLY
DRY DAY THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SENDS
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS INTO THE AREA BY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE
WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...BUT HUMIDITIES WILL STILL
BE ABLE TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ACROSS THE AREA
AHEAD OF ANY SHOWERS INBOUND FOR THE EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT...THOUGH...LIMITING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OR
OPPORTUNITIES. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING AS THE
FRONT PRESSES IN AND THE FIRST POCKET OF WEAK MID LEVEL ENERGY
CROSSES THE AREA. A BETTER CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAINS OF ANY
SIGNIFICANCE ARRIVES TOWARD DAWN AS THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
EAST KENTUCKY. THIS FRONT MAY BE ABLE TO POP OFF A FEW GARDEN VARIETY
THUNDERSTORMS AS IT PASSES OWING MAINLY TO LIS APPROACHING -3 AND
CAPES NEAR 1000 J/KG...BUT WE WILL LACK A DECENT WIND FIELD AND
STRONGER SFC CONVERGENCE THAT COULD DRIVE BETTER CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE LIMITED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
TO RIGHT ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO THE DAY TUESDAY. THE FRONT AND ITS
MAINLY SHOWERS MOVES ON THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY BY EARLY AFTERNOON
TUESDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW. AROUND A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OF RAIN ON AVERAGE IS EXPECTED FROM THIS SYSTEM...SO MANY PLACES
WILL LIKELY NOT EVEN SEE A GOOD SOAKING...KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIRLY
DRY HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PARTS OF THE WEEK.

USED A DIURNAL FROM OBS SCHEME FOR HOURLY TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MORNING GIVEN THE WIDE VARIANCE BETWEEN RIDGES AND VALLEYS CURRENTLY
UNDER WAY. AFTER THAT...FAVORED THE CURVE FROM THE NAM12 THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. DID START OUT WITH THE BIAS
CORRECTED CONSSHORT GUIDANCE FOR THE DEWPOINTS AND WIND GRIDS FOR THE
FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST FOLLOWED BY THE BC/CONSALL THEREAFTER.
THE DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED LOWER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON PER RECENT
BEHAVIOR. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP MOST SIMILAR TO THE HIGHER MAV
NUMBERS THROUGH TUESDAY RATHER THAN THE MORE MEAGER MET GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
TRANSIENT RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE GIVING WAY TO A TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
BY FRIDAY. MODELS THEN HANDLE THIS TROUGH DIFFERENTLY HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND AND OUR CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE WEEKEND
FORECAST DROPS OFF QUITE A BIT.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. WE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES EACH AFTERNOON AS WELL. A STRUNG OUT COLD FRONT IS
THEN PROGGED TO PASS QUICKLY THROUGH OUR AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MODEL GENERATED QPF IS LEAN...AS IS
INSTABILITY...AND ONLY EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AS THE FRONT PASSES. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...
FORECAST MODELS THEN PAINT DIFFERENT SCENARIOS OVER THE
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY WHEN LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES. FOR INSTANCE...
RAW MODEL TEMPS ON THE 21/00Z GFS KEEP US IN THE 50S ON SUNDAY WHILE
THE 21/00Z ECMWF IS AROUND 80. A MODEL BLEND SEEMS PRUDENT. THIS
BLEND RESULTS IN A DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY WITH A RETURN TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEPART. INCONSEQUENTIAL PATCHES OF
THIN HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
MOISTURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A CU DECK DEVELOPING
BETWEEN 4 AND 6KT FEET MSL BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THICKEN DURING THE EVENING...WITH SHOWERS A
POSSIBILITY BEFORE MIDNIGHT AT MOST PLACES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP A BIT FROM
THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY MID AFTERNOON MONDAY...CONTINUING AT 5 TO 10
KTS FROM THAT DIRECTION INTO THE EVENING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GREIF







000
FXUS63 KJKL 210545 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
145 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TRENDS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. SOME VERY THIN HIGH CLOUDS ARE CROSSING THE
AREA WITH LITTLE EFFECT ON THE RADIATIONAL COOLING TAKING PLACE. THIS
COOLING IS HELPING TO DRIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS
DEEP INTO THE 40S WHILE RIDGES ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S...THANKS IN PART TO LIGHT WINDS KEEPING THE AIR ON THE HILL TOPS
MIXED. EXPECT THE RIDGES TO DROP OFF TOWARD DAWN...BUT A SOLID 10
TO 15 DEGREE ELEVATIONALLY BASED DIFFERENCE WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THESE FINE TUNE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO
THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1041 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

WHILE MANY LOCATIONS ARE STARTING TO RECOVER FROM THE LOW RH/S EARLIER
IN THE AFTERNOON...THERE ARE STILL A FEW LOCATIONS...INCLUDING WEST
LIBERTY...WHICH ARE EXPERIENCING DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 20S WITH RH
VALUES IN THE TEENS. LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS...TO BETTER PICK UP ON THE ONGOING
CONDITIONS. EXPECT THE LOW RH LOCATIONS TO CONTINUE TO RECOVER AND
MIX OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST SEEMS TO BE WELL ON
TRACK FOR A FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT AND BEGINNING TO THE DAY MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTH AND
NORTHEAST INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEYS. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE THE NORTHEASTERN US INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. MEANWHILE...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN US COAST WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH WAS OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TOWARD THE DAKOTAS.

TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US
COAST WILL DEPART TO THE EAST WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALSO
SHIFT TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. DURING THIS TIME...A SFC LOW WILL
ORGANIZE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND TRACK INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES BY MON EVENING AND SEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE MS VALLEY.
THE SFC RIDGE WILL ALSO SHIFT TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY MONDAY
EVENING. A RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH EASTERN VALLEY
LOCATIONS LIKELY A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. SOME
UPPER 30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORMALLY COLDEST SPOTS WHILE MANY
RIDGETOPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT
FURTHER FROM TODAY ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT...TO THE
UPPER 70S TO SOME LOWER 80S IN SOME OF THE DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE TROUGH NOW ENTERING THE PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE MS VALLEY ON
MONDAY AND THEN WORK WORK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION ON MONDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES TO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS FROM MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY
EVENING AND SEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD TOWARD THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE RATHER QUICK MOVING...BUT THE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN A BIT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE OH VALLEY LEADING TO
AN INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...RAINFALL
WILL BE LIGHT AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. MOISTURE WILL BE
SOMEWHAT SLOW TO INCREASE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS AND THERE WILL NEED TO
BE QUITE A BIT OF RECOVERY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SFC HIGH. IN
FACT...HUMIDITIES ON MONDAY SHOULD BE DOWN TO 30 PERCENT OR LOWER IN
MOST LOCATIONS WITH HUMIDITIES BELOW 25 PERCENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE
BIG SANDY REGION. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTENING FROM THE TOP
DOWN. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS...INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
FEW STRAY THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THE THREAT
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST FROM MID MORNING ON
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

WELL THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL FEATURE A PROGRESSIVE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN. THERE WILL BE SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS FOLLOWED
BY SOME SHORTWAVE RIDGES. BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE SETS UP OVER THE UPPER MS
RIVER VALLEY MOVING INTO THE OH VALLEY BY TUESDAY.

MAINLY A DRY LOOK TO THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE THE CASE WITH THE
WAVES MOVING THROUGH PRODUCING LITTLE RAINFALL BUT WITH THE MODELS
NOT HANDLING THE PATTERN AS WELL...WILL SHOW LITTLE CONFIDENCE AND
STAY CLOSE TO THE ALL MODEL BLEND SOLUTION. THE WAVE MOVING THROUGH
ON FRIDAY WILL LEAVE A STATIONARY BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE OVER THE
TN AND KY BORDER AND THE LAST FEW DAYS OF THE EXTENDED LOOKING
RATHER MOIST. THE AFOREMENTIONED POTENT SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WILL ALLOW A SURFACE LOW TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE MIDWEST AS A
WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH LATE MONDAY AND THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
ON TUESDAY. HAVE PUT THUNDER IN FOR THIS SET UP AS WELL...AS THE
POTENTIAL IS PRESENT FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEPART. INCONSEQUENTIAL PATCHES OF
THIN HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
MOISTURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A CU DECK DEVELOPING
BETWEEN 4 AND 6KT FEET MSL BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THICKEN DURING THE EVENING...WITH SHOWERS A
POSSIBILITY BEFORE MIDNIGHT AT MOST PLACES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP A BIT FROM
THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY MID AFTERNOON MONDAY...CONTINUING AT 5 TO 10
KTS FROM THAT DIRECTION INTO THE EVENING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GREIF






000
FXUS63 KJKL 210545 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
145 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TRENDS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. SOME VERY THIN HIGH CLOUDS ARE CROSSING THE
AREA WITH LITTLE EFFECT ON THE RADIATIONAL COOLING TAKING PLACE. THIS
COOLING IS HELPING TO DRIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS
DEEP INTO THE 40S WHILE RIDGES ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S...THANKS IN PART TO LIGHT WINDS KEEPING THE AIR ON THE HILL TOPS
MIXED. EXPECT THE RIDGES TO DROP OFF TOWARD DAWN...BUT A SOLID 10
TO 15 DEGREE ELEVATIONALLY BASED DIFFERENCE WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THESE FINE TUNE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO
THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1041 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

WHILE MANY LOCATIONS ARE STARTING TO RECOVER FROM THE LOW RH/S EARLIER
IN THE AFTERNOON...THERE ARE STILL A FEW LOCATIONS...INCLUDING WEST
LIBERTY...WHICH ARE EXPERIENCING DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 20S WITH RH
VALUES IN THE TEENS. LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS...TO BETTER PICK UP ON THE ONGOING
CONDITIONS. EXPECT THE LOW RH LOCATIONS TO CONTINUE TO RECOVER AND
MIX OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST SEEMS TO BE WELL ON
TRACK FOR A FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT AND BEGINNING TO THE DAY MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTH AND
NORTHEAST INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEYS. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE THE NORTHEASTERN US INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. MEANWHILE...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN US COAST WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH WAS OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TOWARD THE DAKOTAS.

TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US
COAST WILL DEPART TO THE EAST WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALSO
SHIFT TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. DURING THIS TIME...A SFC LOW WILL
ORGANIZE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND TRACK INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES BY MON EVENING AND SEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE MS VALLEY.
THE SFC RIDGE WILL ALSO SHIFT TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY MONDAY
EVENING. A RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH EASTERN VALLEY
LOCATIONS LIKELY A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. SOME
UPPER 30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORMALLY COLDEST SPOTS WHILE MANY
RIDGETOPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT
FURTHER FROM TODAY ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT...TO THE
UPPER 70S TO SOME LOWER 80S IN SOME OF THE DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE TROUGH NOW ENTERING THE PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE MS VALLEY ON
MONDAY AND THEN WORK WORK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION ON MONDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES TO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS FROM MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY
EVENING AND SEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD TOWARD THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE RATHER QUICK MOVING...BUT THE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN A BIT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE OH VALLEY LEADING TO
AN INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...RAINFALL
WILL BE LIGHT AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. MOISTURE WILL BE
SOMEWHAT SLOW TO INCREASE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS AND THERE WILL NEED TO
BE QUITE A BIT OF RECOVERY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SFC HIGH. IN
FACT...HUMIDITIES ON MONDAY SHOULD BE DOWN TO 30 PERCENT OR LOWER IN
MOST LOCATIONS WITH HUMIDITIES BELOW 25 PERCENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE
BIG SANDY REGION. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTENING FROM THE TOP
DOWN. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS...INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
FEW STRAY THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THE THREAT
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST FROM MID MORNING ON
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

WELL THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL FEATURE A PROGRESSIVE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN. THERE WILL BE SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS FOLLOWED
BY SOME SHORTWAVE RIDGES. BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE SETS UP OVER THE UPPER MS
RIVER VALLEY MOVING INTO THE OH VALLEY BY TUESDAY.

MAINLY A DRY LOOK TO THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE THE CASE WITH THE
WAVES MOVING THROUGH PRODUCING LITTLE RAINFALL BUT WITH THE MODELS
NOT HANDLING THE PATTERN AS WELL...WILL SHOW LITTLE CONFIDENCE AND
STAY CLOSE TO THE ALL MODEL BLEND SOLUTION. THE WAVE MOVING THROUGH
ON FRIDAY WILL LEAVE A STATIONARY BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE OVER THE
TN AND KY BORDER AND THE LAST FEW DAYS OF THE EXTENDED LOOKING
RATHER MOIST. THE AFOREMENTIONED POTENT SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WILL ALLOW A SURFACE LOW TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE MIDWEST AS A
WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH LATE MONDAY AND THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
ON TUESDAY. HAVE PUT THUNDER IN FOR THIS SET UP AS WELL...AS THE
POTENTIAL IS PRESENT FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEPART. INCONSEQUENTIAL PATCHES OF
THIN HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
MOISTURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A CU DECK DEVELOPING
BETWEEN 4 AND 6KT FEET MSL BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THICKEN DURING THE EVENING...WITH SHOWERS A
POSSIBILITY BEFORE MIDNIGHT AT MOST PLACES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP A BIT FROM
THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY MID AFTERNOON MONDAY...CONTINUING AT 5 TO 10
KTS FROM THAT DIRECTION INTO THE EVENING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GREIF







000
FXUS63 KJKL 210247
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1047 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1041 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

WHILE MANY LOCATIONS ARE STARTING TO RECOVER FROM THE LOW RH/S EARLIER
IN THE AFTERNOON...THERE ARE STILL A FEW LOCATIONS...INCLUDING WEST
LIBERTY...WHICH ARE EXPERIENCING DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 20S WITH RH
VALUES IN THE TEENS. LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS...TO BETTER PICK UP ON THE ONGOING
CONDITIONS. EXPECT THE LOW RH LOCATIONS TO CONTINUE TO RECOVER AND
MIX OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST SEEMS TO BE WELL ON
TRACK FOR A FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT AND BEGINNING TO THE DAY MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTH AND
NORTHEAST INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEYS. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE THE NORTHEASTERN US INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. MEANWHILE...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN US COAST WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH WAS OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TOWARD THE DAKOTAS.

TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US
COAST WILL DEPART TO THE EAST WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALSO
SHIFT TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. DURING THIS TIME...A SFC LOW WILL
ORGANIZE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND TRACK INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES BY MON EVENING AND SEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE MS VALLEY.
THE SFC RIDGE WILL ALSO SHIFT TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY MONDAY
EVENING. A RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH EASTERN VALLEY
LOCATIONS LIKELY A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. SOME
UPPER 30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORMALLY COLDEST SPOTS WHILE MANY
RIDGETOPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT
FURTHER FROM TODAY ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT...TO THE
UPPER 70S TO SOME LOWER 80S IN SOME OF THE DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE TROUGH NOW ENTERING THE PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE MS VALLEY ON
MONDAY AND THEN WORK WORK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION ON MONDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES TO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS FROM MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY
EVENING AND SEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD TOWARD THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE RATHER QUICK MOVING...BUT THE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN A BIT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE OH VALLEY LEADING TO
AN INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...RAINFALL
WILL BE LIGHT AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. MOISTURE WILL BE
SOMEWHAT SLOW TO INCREASE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS AND THERE WILL NEED TO
BE QUITE A BIT OF RECOVERY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SFC HIGH. IN
FACT...HUMIDITIES ON MONDAY SHOULD BE DOWN TO 30 PERCENT OR LOWER IN
MOST LOCATIONS WITH HUMIDITIES BELOW 25 PERCENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE
BIG SANDY REGION. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTENING FROM THE TOP
DOWN. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS...INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
FEW STRAY THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THE THREAT
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST FROM MID MORNING ON
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

WELL THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL FEATURE A PROGRESSIVE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN. THERE WILL BE SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS FOLLOWED
BY SOME SHORTWAVE RIDGES. BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE SETS UP OVER THE UPPER MS
RIVER VALLEY MOVING INTO THE OH VALLEY BY TUESDAY.

MAINLY A DRY LOOK TO THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE THE CASE WITH THE
WAVES MOVING THROUGH PRODUCING LITTLE RAINFALL BUT WITH THE MODELS
NOT HANDLING THE PATTERN AS WELL...WILL SHOW LITTLE CONFIDENCE AND
STAY CLOSE TO THE ALL MODEL BLEND SOLUTION. THE WAVE MOVING THROUGH
ON FRIDAY WILL LEAVE A STATIONARY BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE OVER THE
TN AND KY BORDER AND THE LAST FEW DAYS OF THE EXTENDED LOOKING
RATHER MOIST. THE AFOREMENTIONED POTENT SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WILL ALLOW A SURFACE LOW TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE MIDWEST AS A
WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH LATE MONDAY AND THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
ON TUESDAY. HAVE PUT THUNDER IN FOR THIS SET UP AS WELL...AS THE
POTENTIAL IS PRESENT FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 710 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEPART. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT
BY FROM TIME TO TIME AS THEY MOVE AROUND RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. MOISTURE
WILL THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SYSTEM. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CU DECK DEVELOPING BETWEEN 4
AND 6KT FEET MSL AROUND 18Z. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN IN THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH RAIN SET TO IMPACT THE TAF SITES JUST AFTER
THE CURRENT TAF FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JMW









000
FXUS63 KJKL 210247
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1047 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1041 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

WHILE MANY LOCATIONS ARE STARTING TO RECOVER FROM THE LOW RH/S EARLIER
IN THE AFTERNOON...THERE ARE STILL A FEW LOCATIONS...INCLUDING WEST
LIBERTY...WHICH ARE EXPERIENCING DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 20S WITH RH
VALUES IN THE TEENS. LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS...TO BETTER PICK UP ON THE ONGOING
CONDITIONS. EXPECT THE LOW RH LOCATIONS TO CONTINUE TO RECOVER AND
MIX OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST SEEMS TO BE WELL ON
TRACK FOR A FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT AND BEGINNING TO THE DAY MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTH AND
NORTHEAST INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEYS. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE THE NORTHEASTERN US INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. MEANWHILE...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN US COAST WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH WAS OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TOWARD THE DAKOTAS.

TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US
COAST WILL DEPART TO THE EAST WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALSO
SHIFT TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. DURING THIS TIME...A SFC LOW WILL
ORGANIZE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND TRACK INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES BY MON EVENING AND SEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE MS VALLEY.
THE SFC RIDGE WILL ALSO SHIFT TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY MONDAY
EVENING. A RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH EASTERN VALLEY
LOCATIONS LIKELY A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. SOME
UPPER 30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORMALLY COLDEST SPOTS WHILE MANY
RIDGETOPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT
FURTHER FROM TODAY ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT...TO THE
UPPER 70S TO SOME LOWER 80S IN SOME OF THE DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE TROUGH NOW ENTERING THE PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE MS VALLEY ON
MONDAY AND THEN WORK WORK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION ON MONDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES TO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS FROM MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY
EVENING AND SEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD TOWARD THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE RATHER QUICK MOVING...BUT THE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN A BIT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE OH VALLEY LEADING TO
AN INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...RAINFALL
WILL BE LIGHT AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. MOISTURE WILL BE
SOMEWHAT SLOW TO INCREASE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS AND THERE WILL NEED TO
BE QUITE A BIT OF RECOVERY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SFC HIGH. IN
FACT...HUMIDITIES ON MONDAY SHOULD BE DOWN TO 30 PERCENT OR LOWER IN
MOST LOCATIONS WITH HUMIDITIES BELOW 25 PERCENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE
BIG SANDY REGION. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTENING FROM THE TOP
DOWN. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS...INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
FEW STRAY THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THE THREAT
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST FROM MID MORNING ON
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

WELL THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL FEATURE A PROGRESSIVE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN. THERE WILL BE SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS FOLLOWED
BY SOME SHORTWAVE RIDGES. BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE SETS UP OVER THE UPPER MS
RIVER VALLEY MOVING INTO THE OH VALLEY BY TUESDAY.

MAINLY A DRY LOOK TO THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE THE CASE WITH THE
WAVES MOVING THROUGH PRODUCING LITTLE RAINFALL BUT WITH THE MODELS
NOT HANDLING THE PATTERN AS WELL...WILL SHOW LITTLE CONFIDENCE AND
STAY CLOSE TO THE ALL MODEL BLEND SOLUTION. THE WAVE MOVING THROUGH
ON FRIDAY WILL LEAVE A STATIONARY BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE OVER THE
TN AND KY BORDER AND THE LAST FEW DAYS OF THE EXTENDED LOOKING
RATHER MOIST. THE AFOREMENTIONED POTENT SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WILL ALLOW A SURFACE LOW TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE MIDWEST AS A
WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH LATE MONDAY AND THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
ON TUESDAY. HAVE PUT THUNDER IN FOR THIS SET UP AS WELL...AS THE
POTENTIAL IS PRESENT FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 710 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEPART. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT
BY FROM TIME TO TIME AS THEY MOVE AROUND RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. MOISTURE
WILL THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SYSTEM. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CU DECK DEVELOPING BETWEEN 4
AND 6KT FEET MSL AROUND 18Z. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN IN THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH RAIN SET TO IMPACT THE TAF SITES JUST AFTER
THE CURRENT TAF FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JMW








000
FXUS63 KJKL 202310
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
710 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTH AND
NORTHEAST INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEYS. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE THE NORTHEASTERN US INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. MEANWHILE...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN US COAST WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH WAS OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TOWARD THE DAKOTAS.

TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US
COAST WILL DEPART TO THE EAST WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALSO
SHIFT TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. DURING THIS TIME...A SFC LOW WILL
ORGANIZE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND TRACK INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES BY MON EVENING AND SEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE MS VALLEY.
THE SFC RIDGE WILL ALSO SHIFT TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY MONDAY
EVENING. A RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH EASTERN VALLEY
LOCATIONS LIKELY A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. SOME
UPPER 30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORMALLY COLDEST SPOTS WHILE MANY
RIDGETOPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT
FURTHER FROM TODAY ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT...TO THE
UPPER 70S TO SOME LOWER 80S IN SOME OF THE DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE TROUGH NOW ENTERING THE PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE MS VALLEY ON
MONDAY AND THEN WORK WORK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION ON MONDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES TO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS FROM MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY
EVENING AND SEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD TOWARD THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE RATHER QUICK MOVING...BUT THE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN A BIT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE OH VALLEY LEADING TO
AN INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...RAINFALL
WILL BE LIGHT AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. MOISTURE WILL BE
SOMEWHAT SLOW TO INCREASE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS AND THERE WILL NEED TO
BE QUITE A BIT OF RECOVERY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SFC HIGH. IN
FACT...HUMIDITIES ON MONDAY SHOULD BE DOWN TO 30 PERCENT OR LOWER IN
MOST LOCATIONS WITH HUMIDITIES BELOW 25 PERCENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE
BIG SANDY REGION. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTENING FROM THE TOP
DOWN. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS...INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
FEW STRAY THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THE THREAT
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST FROM MID MORNING ON
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

WELL THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL FEATURE A PROGRESSIVE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN. THERE WILL BE SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS FOLLOWED
BY SOME SHORTWAVE RIDGES. BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE SETS UP OVER THE UPPER MS
RIVER VALLEY MOVING INTO THE OH VALLEY BY TUESDAY.

MAINLY A DRY LOOK TO THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE THE CASE WITH THE
WAVES MOVING THROUGH PRODUCING LITTLE RAINFALL BUT WITH THE MODELS
NOT HANDLING THE PATTERN AS WELL...WILL SHOW LITTLE CONFIDENCE AND
STAY CLOSE TO THE ALL MODEL BLEND SOLUTION. THE WAVE MOVING THROUGH
ON FRIDAY WILL LEAVE A STATIONARY BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE OVER THE
TN AND KY BORDER AND THE LAST FEW DAYS OF THE EXTENDED LOOKING
RATHER MOIST. THE AFOREMENTIONED POTENT SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WILL ALLOW A SURFACE LOW TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE MIDWEST AS A
WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH LATE MONDAY AND THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
ON TUESDAY. HAVE PUT THUNDER IN FOR THIS SET UP AS WELL...AS THE
POTENTIAL IS PRESENT FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 710 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEPART. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT
BY FROM TIME TO TIME AS THEY MOVE AROUND RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. MOISTURE
WILL THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SYSTEM. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CU DECK DEVELOPING BETWEEN 4
AND 6KT FEET MSL AROUND 18Z. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN IN THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH RAIN SET TO IMPACT THE TAF SITES JUST AFTER
THE CURRENT TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JMW







000
FXUS63 KJKL 202310
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
710 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTH AND
NORTHEAST INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEYS. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE THE NORTHEASTERN US INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. MEANWHILE...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN US COAST WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH WAS OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TOWARD THE DAKOTAS.

TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US
COAST WILL DEPART TO THE EAST WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALSO
SHIFT TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. DURING THIS TIME...A SFC LOW WILL
ORGANIZE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND TRACK INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES BY MON EVENING AND SEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE MS VALLEY.
THE SFC RIDGE WILL ALSO SHIFT TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY MONDAY
EVENING. A RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH EASTERN VALLEY
LOCATIONS LIKELY A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. SOME
UPPER 30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORMALLY COLDEST SPOTS WHILE MANY
RIDGETOPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT
FURTHER FROM TODAY ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT...TO THE
UPPER 70S TO SOME LOWER 80S IN SOME OF THE DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE TROUGH NOW ENTERING THE PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE MS VALLEY ON
MONDAY AND THEN WORK WORK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION ON MONDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES TO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS FROM MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY
EVENING AND SEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD TOWARD THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE RATHER QUICK MOVING...BUT THE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN A BIT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE OH VALLEY LEADING TO
AN INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...RAINFALL
WILL BE LIGHT AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. MOISTURE WILL BE
SOMEWHAT SLOW TO INCREASE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS AND THERE WILL NEED TO
BE QUITE A BIT OF RECOVERY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SFC HIGH. IN
FACT...HUMIDITIES ON MONDAY SHOULD BE DOWN TO 30 PERCENT OR LOWER IN
MOST LOCATIONS WITH HUMIDITIES BELOW 25 PERCENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE
BIG SANDY REGION. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTENING FROM THE TOP
DOWN. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS...INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
FEW STRAY THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THE THREAT
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST FROM MID MORNING ON
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

WELL THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL FEATURE A PROGRESSIVE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN. THERE WILL BE SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS FOLLOWED
BY SOME SHORTWAVE RIDGES. BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE SETS UP OVER THE UPPER MS
RIVER VALLEY MOVING INTO THE OH VALLEY BY TUESDAY.

MAINLY A DRY LOOK TO THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE THE CASE WITH THE
WAVES MOVING THROUGH PRODUCING LITTLE RAINFALL BUT WITH THE MODELS
NOT HANDLING THE PATTERN AS WELL...WILL SHOW LITTLE CONFIDENCE AND
STAY CLOSE TO THE ALL MODEL BLEND SOLUTION. THE WAVE MOVING THROUGH
ON FRIDAY WILL LEAVE A STATIONARY BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE OVER THE
TN AND KY BORDER AND THE LAST FEW DAYS OF THE EXTENDED LOOKING
RATHER MOIST. THE AFOREMENTIONED POTENT SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WILL ALLOW A SURFACE LOW TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE MIDWEST AS A
WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH LATE MONDAY AND THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
ON TUESDAY. HAVE PUT THUNDER IN FOR THIS SET UP AS WELL...AS THE
POTENTIAL IS PRESENT FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 710 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEPART. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT
BY FROM TIME TO TIME AS THEY MOVE AROUND RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. MOISTURE
WILL THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SYSTEM. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CU DECK DEVELOPING BETWEEN 4
AND 6KT FEET MSL AROUND 18Z. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN IN THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH RAIN SET TO IMPACT THE TAF SITES JUST AFTER
THE CURRENT TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JMW








000
FXUS63 KJKL 202041
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
441 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTH AND
NORTHEAST INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEYS. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE THE NORTHEASTERN US INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. MEANWHILE...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN US COAST WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH WAS OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TOWARD THE DAKOTAS.

TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US
COAST WILL DEPART TO THE EAST WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALSO
SHIFT TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. DURING THIS TIME...A SFC LOW WILL
ORGANIZE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND TRACK INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES BY MON EVENING AND SEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE MS VALLEY.
THE SFC RIDGE WILL ALSO SHIFT TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY MONDAY
EVENING. A RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH EASTERN VALLEY
LOCATIONS LIKELY A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. SOME
UPPER 30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORMALLY COLDEST SPOTS WHILE MANY
RIDGETOPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT
FURTHER FROM TODAY ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT...TO THE
UPPER 70S TO SOME LOWER 80S IN SOME OF THE DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE TROUGH NOW ENTERING THE PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE MS VALLEY ON
MONDAY AND THEN WORK WORK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION ON MONDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES TO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS FROM MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY
EVENING AND SEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD TOWARD THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE RATHER QUICK MOVING...BUT THE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN A BIT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE OH VALLEY LEADING TO
AN INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...RAINFALL
WILL BE LIGHT AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. MOISTURE WILL BE
SOMEWHAT SLOW TO INCREASE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS AND THERE WILL NEED TO
BE QUITE A BIT OF RECOVERY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SFC HIGH. IN
FACT...HUMIDITIES ON MONDAY SHOULD BE DOWN TO 30 PERCENT OR LOWER IN
MOST LOCATIONS WITH HUMIDITIES BELOW 25 PERCENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE
BIG SANDY REGION. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTENING FROM THE TOP
DOWN. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS...INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
FEW STRAY THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THE THREAT
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST FROM MID MORNING ON
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

WELL THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL FEATURE A PROGRESSIVE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN. THERE WILL BE SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS FOLLOWED
BY SOME SHORTWAVE RIDGES. BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE SETS UP OVER THE UPPER MS
RIVER VALLEY MOVING INTO THE OH VALLEY BY TUESDAY.

MAINLY A DRY LOOK TO THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE THE CASE WITH THE
WAVES MOVING THROUGH PRODUCING LITTLE RAINFALL BUT WITH THE MODELS
NOT HANDLING THE PATTERN AS WELL...WILL SHOW LITTLE CONFIDENCE AND
STAY CLOSE TO THE ALL MODEL BLEND SOLUTION. THE WAVE MOVING THROUGH
ON FRIDAY WILL LEAVE A STATIONARY BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE OVER THE
TN AND KY BORDER AND THE LAST FEW DAYS OF THE EXTENDED LOOKING
RATHER MOIST. THE AFOREMENTIONED POTENT SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WILL ALLOW A SURFACE LOW TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE MIDWEST AS A
WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH LATE MONDAY AND THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
ON TUESDAY. HAVE PUT THUNDER IN FOR THIS SET UP AS WELL...AS THE
POTENTIAL IS PRESENT FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE AVIATION
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEPART. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT
BY FROM TIME TO TIME AS THEY MOVE AROUND RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BETWEEN 4 AND KFT MSL AND A FEW CU AROUND 5KFT
MIGHT BE POSSIBLE BY 18Z.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JP







000
FXUS63 KJKL 202041
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
441 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTH AND
NORTHEAST INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEYS. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE THE NORTHEASTERN US INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. MEANWHILE...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN US COAST WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH WAS OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TOWARD THE DAKOTAS.

TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US
COAST WILL DEPART TO THE EAST WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALSO
SHIFT TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. DURING THIS TIME...A SFC LOW WILL
ORGANIZE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND TRACK INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES BY MON EVENING AND SEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE MS VALLEY.
THE SFC RIDGE WILL ALSO SHIFT TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY MONDAY
EVENING. A RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH EASTERN VALLEY
LOCATIONS LIKELY A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. SOME
UPPER 30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORMALLY COLDEST SPOTS WHILE MANY
RIDGETOPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT
FURTHER FROM TODAY ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT...TO THE
UPPER 70S TO SOME LOWER 80S IN SOME OF THE DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE TROUGH NOW ENTERING THE PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE MS VALLEY ON
MONDAY AND THEN WORK WORK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION ON MONDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES TO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS FROM MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY
EVENING AND SEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD TOWARD THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE RATHER QUICK MOVING...BUT THE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN A BIT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE OH VALLEY LEADING TO
AN INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...RAINFALL
WILL BE LIGHT AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. MOISTURE WILL BE
SOMEWHAT SLOW TO INCREASE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS AND THERE WILL NEED TO
BE QUITE A BIT OF RECOVERY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SFC HIGH. IN
FACT...HUMIDITIES ON MONDAY SHOULD BE DOWN TO 30 PERCENT OR LOWER IN
MOST LOCATIONS WITH HUMIDITIES BELOW 25 PERCENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE
BIG SANDY REGION. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTENING FROM THE TOP
DOWN. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS...INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
FEW STRAY THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THE THREAT
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST FROM MID MORNING ON
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

WELL THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL FEATURE A PROGRESSIVE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN. THERE WILL BE SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS FOLLOWED
BY SOME SHORTWAVE RIDGES. BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE SETS UP OVER THE UPPER MS
RIVER VALLEY MOVING INTO THE OH VALLEY BY TUESDAY.

MAINLY A DRY LOOK TO THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE THE CASE WITH THE
WAVES MOVING THROUGH PRODUCING LITTLE RAINFALL BUT WITH THE MODELS
NOT HANDLING THE PATTERN AS WELL...WILL SHOW LITTLE CONFIDENCE AND
STAY CLOSE TO THE ALL MODEL BLEND SOLUTION. THE WAVE MOVING THROUGH
ON FRIDAY WILL LEAVE A STATIONARY BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE OVER THE
TN AND KY BORDER AND THE LAST FEW DAYS OF THE EXTENDED LOOKING
RATHER MOIST. THE AFOREMENTIONED POTENT SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WILL ALLOW A SURFACE LOW TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE MIDWEST AS A
WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH LATE MONDAY AND THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
ON TUESDAY. HAVE PUT THUNDER IN FOR THIS SET UP AS WELL...AS THE
POTENTIAL IS PRESENT FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE AVIATION
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEPART. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT
BY FROM TIME TO TIME AS THEY MOVE AROUND RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BETWEEN 4 AND KFT MSL AND A FEW CU AROUND 5KFT
MIGHT BE POSSIBLE BY 18Z.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JP








000
FXUS63 KJKL 201938
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
338 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT IS BRINGING A DRY AND MILD DAY TO
EASTERN KY. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE DRIFTING BY FROM TIME TO TIME.
HOWEVER...WINDS ARE LIGHT...BUT RH IS ON THE LOW SIDE. HOURLY GRIDS
WERE UPDATED BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE AND OBSERVATION TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

RAN A QUICK UPDATE ON THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST IN CONTROL OF
THE WEATHER OVER EAST KENTUCKY. EVEN SO...SOME HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO LINGER OVER FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE. THESE ARE THE LAST
REMNANTS...FOR KENTUCKY...OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY EDGING OUT
TO SEA OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE CLOUDS HAVE DONE LITTLE TO SLOW
THE DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES OVER THE EAST TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN
THE VALLEYS. IN FACT...A FAIRLY STANDARD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING
HAS LEFT SOME OF THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
40S WHILE THE RIDGES AND MORE OPEN AREAS ARE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
50S. THIS IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE CONDITIONS OF 24 HOURS AGO...
ALTHOUGH THE WINDS ARE LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE THIS NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...DEWPOINTS VARY FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORTH TO THE
LOWER 40S IN THE FAR SOUTH AND MANY OF THE DEEPER VALLEYS.

THE MODELS ARE AGAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS THE UNUSUALLY AMPLIFIED SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN DEVOLVES INTO A MORE RECOGNIZABLE ONE CONSISTING OF ONE MAIN
STREAM MOVING THROUGH THE COUNTRY BY TUESDAY. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL BE A TROUGH ROLLING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON MONDAY REPLACING OUR LOCAL RIDGING. THIS LOOSELY
CONSOLIDATED SOUTHERN TROUGH WILL TRANSFER MUCH OF ITS ENERGY TO A
MORE ROBUST ONE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS PROCESS RESULTS IN THE END OF SPLIT
FLOW OVER THE AREA AND ALLOWS A BROADER TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY AND KENTUCKY INTO TUESDAY...WHILE THE BULK OF THE MID
LEVEL ENERGY PASSES TO THE NORTH. THE MODELS DO SHOW SOME
DISCREPANCIES WITH THIS PATTERN CHANGE...PRIMARILY AROUND THE
LAKES...BUT A GENERAL MODEL BLEND APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE MORE SUNSHINE DAY AND WARM CONDITIONS
ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT WINDS...ALLOWING FOR A FINE END TO THE WEEKEND.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE A CONCERN FOR FIRE BEHAVIOR TODAY...BUT THE
LIGHT WIND FLOW WILL LIMIT ITS GROWTH AND ALSO ITS SMOKE DISPERSION.
AN SPS DETAILING THIS WILL BE CONTINUED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ANOTHER RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT
WILL SET UP TONIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...THOUGH SOME HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE NIGHT. THE
CEILINGS FROM THESE WILL THICKEN AND LOWER WITH TIME THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY...MITIGATING WHAT COULD HAVE BEEN A FAIRLY WARM DAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING...BUT WEAKENING...COLD FRONT.

AGAIN STARTED WITH THE CONSSHORT AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSSHORT
GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE...DEWPOINT...AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE
FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST FOLLOWED BY THE BC/CONSALL THEREAFTER.
DID ADJUST THE TEMPERATURES COLDER AND FASTER IN THE VALLEYS TONIGHT
AND ALSO TWEAKED DEWPOINTS DRIER FOR EACH AFTERNOON. AS FOR POPS...
ENDED UP IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN POPS BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...IN LINE WITH ALL
THE MOS GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

WELL THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN ON TUESDAY WITH A
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE. TUESDAY WILL FEATURE A
WAVE MOVING THROUGH AND EXITING THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE REST
OF THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS FOLLOWED
BY SOME SHORTWAVE RIDGES. BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE SETS UP OVER THE
UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY MOVING INTO THE OH VALLEY BY TUESDAY.

MAINLY A DRY LOOK TO THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE THE CASE WITH THE
WAVES MOVING THROUGH PRODUCING LITTLE RAINFALL BUT WITH THE MODELS
NOT HANDLING THE PATTERN AS WELL...WILL SHOW LITTLE CONFIDENCE AND
STAY CLOSE TO THE ALL MODEL BLEND SOLUTION. THE WAVE MOVING THROUGH
ON FRIDAY WILL LEAVE A STATIONARY BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE OVER THE
TN AND KY BORDER AND THE LAST FEW DAYS OF THE EXTENDED LOOKING
RATHER MOIST. THE AFOREMENTIONED POTENT SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WILL ALLOW A SURFACE LOW TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE MIDWEST AS A
WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH LATE MONDAY AND THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
ON TUESDAY. HAVE PUT THUNDER IN FOR THIS SET UP AS WELL...AS THE
POTENTIAL IS PRESENT FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE AVIATION
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEPART. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT
BY FROM TIME TO TIME AS THEY MOVE AROUND RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BETWEEN 4 AND KFT MSL AND A FEW CU AROUND 5KFT
MIGHT BE POSSIBLE BY 18Z.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JP








000
FXUS63 KJKL 201938
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
338 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT IS BRINGING A DRY AND MILD DAY TO
EASTERN KY. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE DRIFTING BY FROM TIME TO TIME.
HOWEVER...WINDS ARE LIGHT...BUT RH IS ON THE LOW SIDE. HOURLY GRIDS
WERE UPDATED BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE AND OBSERVATION TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

RAN A QUICK UPDATE ON THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST IN CONTROL OF
THE WEATHER OVER EAST KENTUCKY. EVEN SO...SOME HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO LINGER OVER FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE. THESE ARE THE LAST
REMNANTS...FOR KENTUCKY...OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY EDGING OUT
TO SEA OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE CLOUDS HAVE DONE LITTLE TO SLOW
THE DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES OVER THE EAST TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN
THE VALLEYS. IN FACT...A FAIRLY STANDARD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING
HAS LEFT SOME OF THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
40S WHILE THE RIDGES AND MORE OPEN AREAS ARE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
50S. THIS IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE CONDITIONS OF 24 HOURS AGO...
ALTHOUGH THE WINDS ARE LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE THIS NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...DEWPOINTS VARY FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORTH TO THE
LOWER 40S IN THE FAR SOUTH AND MANY OF THE DEEPER VALLEYS.

THE MODELS ARE AGAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS THE UNUSUALLY AMPLIFIED SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN DEVOLVES INTO A MORE RECOGNIZABLE ONE CONSISTING OF ONE MAIN
STREAM MOVING THROUGH THE COUNTRY BY TUESDAY. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL BE A TROUGH ROLLING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON MONDAY REPLACING OUR LOCAL RIDGING. THIS LOOSELY
CONSOLIDATED SOUTHERN TROUGH WILL TRANSFER MUCH OF ITS ENERGY TO A
MORE ROBUST ONE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS PROCESS RESULTS IN THE END OF SPLIT
FLOW OVER THE AREA AND ALLOWS A BROADER TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY AND KENTUCKY INTO TUESDAY...WHILE THE BULK OF THE MID
LEVEL ENERGY PASSES TO THE NORTH. THE MODELS DO SHOW SOME
DISCREPANCIES WITH THIS PATTERN CHANGE...PRIMARILY AROUND THE
LAKES...BUT A GENERAL MODEL BLEND APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE MORE SUNSHINE DAY AND WARM CONDITIONS
ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT WINDS...ALLOWING FOR A FINE END TO THE WEEKEND.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE A CONCERN FOR FIRE BEHAVIOR TODAY...BUT THE
LIGHT WIND FLOW WILL LIMIT ITS GROWTH AND ALSO ITS SMOKE DISPERSION.
AN SPS DETAILING THIS WILL BE CONTINUED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ANOTHER RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT
WILL SET UP TONIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...THOUGH SOME HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE NIGHT. THE
CEILINGS FROM THESE WILL THICKEN AND LOWER WITH TIME THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY...MITIGATING WHAT COULD HAVE BEEN A FAIRLY WARM DAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING...BUT WEAKENING...COLD FRONT.

AGAIN STARTED WITH THE CONSSHORT AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSSHORT
GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE...DEWPOINT...AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE
FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST FOLLOWED BY THE BC/CONSALL THEREAFTER.
DID ADJUST THE TEMPERATURES COLDER AND FASTER IN THE VALLEYS TONIGHT
AND ALSO TWEAKED DEWPOINTS DRIER FOR EACH AFTERNOON. AS FOR POPS...
ENDED UP IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN POPS BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...IN LINE WITH ALL
THE MOS GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

WELL THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN ON TUESDAY WITH A
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE. TUESDAY WILL FEATURE A
WAVE MOVING THROUGH AND EXITING THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE REST
OF THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS FOLLOWED
BY SOME SHORTWAVE RIDGES. BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE SETS UP OVER THE
UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY MOVING INTO THE OH VALLEY BY TUESDAY.

MAINLY A DRY LOOK TO THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE THE CASE WITH THE
WAVES MOVING THROUGH PRODUCING LITTLE RAINFALL BUT WITH THE MODELS
NOT HANDLING THE PATTERN AS WELL...WILL SHOW LITTLE CONFIDENCE AND
STAY CLOSE TO THE ALL MODEL BLEND SOLUTION. THE WAVE MOVING THROUGH
ON FRIDAY WILL LEAVE A STATIONARY BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE OVER THE
TN AND KY BORDER AND THE LAST FEW DAYS OF THE EXTENDED LOOKING
RATHER MOIST. THE AFOREMENTIONED POTENT SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WILL ALLOW A SURFACE LOW TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE MIDWEST AS A
WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH LATE MONDAY AND THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
ON TUESDAY. HAVE PUT THUNDER IN FOR THIS SET UP AS WELL...AS THE
POTENTIAL IS PRESENT FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE AVIATION
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEPART. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT
BY FROM TIME TO TIME AS THEY MOVE AROUND RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BETWEEN 4 AND KFT MSL AND A FEW CU AROUND 5KFT
MIGHT BE POSSIBLE BY 18Z.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JP







000
FXUS63 KJKL 201846 AAB
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
246 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT IS BRINGING A DRY AND MILD DAY TO
EASTERN KY. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE DRIFTING BY FROM TIME TO TIME.
HOWEVER...WINDS ARE LIGHT...BUT RH IS ON THE LOW SIDE. HOURLY GRIDS
WERE UPDATED BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE AND OBSERVATION TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

RAN A QUICK UPDATE ON THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST IN CONTROL OF
THE WEATHER OVER EAST KENTUCKY. EVEN SO...SOME HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO LINGER OVER FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE. THESE ARE THE LAST
REMNANTS...FOR KENTUCKY...OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY EDGING OUT
TO SEA OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE CLOUDS HAVE DONE LITTLE TO SLOW
THE DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES OVER THE EAST TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN
THE VALLEYS. IN FACT...A FAIRLY STANDARD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING
HAS LEFT SOME OF THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
40S WHILE THE RIDGES AND MORE OPEN AREAS ARE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
50S. THIS IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE CONDITIONS OF 24 HOURS AGO...
ALTHOUGH THE WINDS ARE LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE THIS NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...DEWPOINTS VARY FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORTH TO THE
LOWER 40S IN THE FAR SOUTH AND MANY OF THE DEEPER VALLEYS.

THE MODELS ARE AGAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS THE UNUSUALLY AMPLIFIED SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN DEVOLVES INTO A MORE RECOGNIZABLE ONE CONSISTING OF ONE MAIN
STREAM MOVING THROUGH THE COUNTRY BY TUESDAY. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL BE A TROUGH ROLLING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON MONDAY REPLACING OUR LOCAL RIDGING. THIS LOOSELY
CONSOLIDATED SOUTHERN TROUGH WILL TRANSFER MUCH OF ITS ENERGY TO A
MORE ROBUST ONE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS PROCESS RESULTS IN THE END OF SPLIT
FLOW OVER THE AREA AND ALLOWS A BROADER TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY AND KENTUCKY INTO TUESDAY...WHILE THE BULK OF THE MID
LEVEL ENERGY PASSES TO THE NORTH. THE MODELS DO SHOW SOME
DISCREPANCIES WITH THIS PATTERN CHANGE...PRIMARILY AROUND THE
LAKES...BUT A GENERAL MODEL BLEND APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE MORE SUNSHINE DAY AND WARM CONDITIONS
ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT WINDS...ALLOWING FOR A FINE END TO THE WEEKEND.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE A CONCERN FOR FIRE BEHAVIOR TODAY...BUT THE
LIGHT WIND FLOW WILL LIMIT ITS GROWTH AND ALSO ITS SMOKE DISPERSION.
AN SPS DETAILING THIS WILL BE CONTINUED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ANOTHER RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT
WILL SET UP TONIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...THOUGH SOME HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE NIGHT. THE
CEILINGS FROM THESE WILL THICKEN AND LOWER WITH TIME THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY...MITIGATING WHAT COULD HAVE BEEN A FAIRLY WARM DAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING...BUT WEAKENING...COLD FRONT.

AGAIN STARTED WITH THE CONSSHORT AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSSHORT
GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE...DEWPOINT...AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE
FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST FOLLOWED BY THE BC/CONSALL THEREAFTER.
DID ADJUST THE TEMPERATURES COLDER AND FASTER IN THE VALLEYS TONIGHT
AND ALSO TWEAKED DEWPOINTS DRIER FOR EACH AFTERNOON. AS FOR POPS...
ENDED UP IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN POPS BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...IN LINE WITH ALL
THE MOS GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

THE WEEK AHEAD WILL FEATURE A PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN ACROSS
THE CONUS. TWO SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT OUR REGION BUT NEITHER LOOK
PARTICULARLY STRONG. DURING THE MONTHS OF MARCH AND APRIL...NWS
JACKSON HAS ONLY ISSUED 5 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS THIS YEAR
VERSUS A 15 YEAR AVERAGE OF 39. IT IS DOUBTFUL LOOKING AT THE LATEST
MODELS THAT WE WILL ADD TO THAT WARNING TOTAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. FORECAST MODELS GENERATE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AS THE
FRONT PASSES BUT AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY NOT IMPRESS. THE FRONT WILL
KNOCK BACK TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY FROM AROUND 70 ON TUESDAY INTO THE
MID 60S ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE THEN FORECAST TO JUMP BACK
WELL INTO THE 70S ON THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM. MODELS
ARE CONSISTENT SENDING A SECOND COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AGAIN...NOT THE BEST TIMING FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AND ONCE AGAIN MODEL QPF IS LIGHT. THIS
FRONT WILL KNOCK BACK TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S ON
FRIDAY INTO THE LOWER 70S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE AVIATION
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEPART. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT
BY FROM TIME TO TIME AS THEY MOVE AROUND RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BETWEEN 4 AND KFT MSL AND A FEW CU AROUND 5KFT
MIGHT BE POSSIBLE BY 18Z.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...JP







000
FXUS63 KJKL 201846 AAB
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
246 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT IS BRINGING A DRY AND MILD DAY TO
EASTERN KY. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE DRIFTING BY FROM TIME TO TIME.
HOWEVER...WINDS ARE LIGHT...BUT RH IS ON THE LOW SIDE. HOURLY GRIDS
WERE UPDATED BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE AND OBSERVATION TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

RAN A QUICK UPDATE ON THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST IN CONTROL OF
THE WEATHER OVER EAST KENTUCKY. EVEN SO...SOME HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO LINGER OVER FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE. THESE ARE THE LAST
REMNANTS...FOR KENTUCKY...OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY EDGING OUT
TO SEA OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE CLOUDS HAVE DONE LITTLE TO SLOW
THE DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES OVER THE EAST TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN
THE VALLEYS. IN FACT...A FAIRLY STANDARD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING
HAS LEFT SOME OF THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
40S WHILE THE RIDGES AND MORE OPEN AREAS ARE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
50S. THIS IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE CONDITIONS OF 24 HOURS AGO...
ALTHOUGH THE WINDS ARE LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE THIS NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...DEWPOINTS VARY FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORTH TO THE
LOWER 40S IN THE FAR SOUTH AND MANY OF THE DEEPER VALLEYS.

THE MODELS ARE AGAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS THE UNUSUALLY AMPLIFIED SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN DEVOLVES INTO A MORE RECOGNIZABLE ONE CONSISTING OF ONE MAIN
STREAM MOVING THROUGH THE COUNTRY BY TUESDAY. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL BE A TROUGH ROLLING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON MONDAY REPLACING OUR LOCAL RIDGING. THIS LOOSELY
CONSOLIDATED SOUTHERN TROUGH WILL TRANSFER MUCH OF ITS ENERGY TO A
MORE ROBUST ONE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS PROCESS RESULTS IN THE END OF SPLIT
FLOW OVER THE AREA AND ALLOWS A BROADER TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY AND KENTUCKY INTO TUESDAY...WHILE THE BULK OF THE MID
LEVEL ENERGY PASSES TO THE NORTH. THE MODELS DO SHOW SOME
DISCREPANCIES WITH THIS PATTERN CHANGE...PRIMARILY AROUND THE
LAKES...BUT A GENERAL MODEL BLEND APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE MORE SUNSHINE DAY AND WARM CONDITIONS
ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT WINDS...ALLOWING FOR A FINE END TO THE WEEKEND.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE A CONCERN FOR FIRE BEHAVIOR TODAY...BUT THE
LIGHT WIND FLOW WILL LIMIT ITS GROWTH AND ALSO ITS SMOKE DISPERSION.
AN SPS DETAILING THIS WILL BE CONTINUED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ANOTHER RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT
WILL SET UP TONIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...THOUGH SOME HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE NIGHT. THE
CEILINGS FROM THESE WILL THICKEN AND LOWER WITH TIME THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY...MITIGATING WHAT COULD HAVE BEEN A FAIRLY WARM DAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING...BUT WEAKENING...COLD FRONT.

AGAIN STARTED WITH THE CONSSHORT AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSSHORT
GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE...DEWPOINT...AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE
FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST FOLLOWED BY THE BC/CONSALL THEREAFTER.
DID ADJUST THE TEMPERATURES COLDER AND FASTER IN THE VALLEYS TONIGHT
AND ALSO TWEAKED DEWPOINTS DRIER FOR EACH AFTERNOON. AS FOR POPS...
ENDED UP IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN POPS BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...IN LINE WITH ALL
THE MOS GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

THE WEEK AHEAD WILL FEATURE A PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN ACROSS
THE CONUS. TWO SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT OUR REGION BUT NEITHER LOOK
PARTICULARLY STRONG. DURING THE MONTHS OF MARCH AND APRIL...NWS
JACKSON HAS ONLY ISSUED 5 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS THIS YEAR
VERSUS A 15 YEAR AVERAGE OF 39. IT IS DOUBTFUL LOOKING AT THE LATEST
MODELS THAT WE WILL ADD TO THAT WARNING TOTAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. FORECAST MODELS GENERATE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AS THE
FRONT PASSES BUT AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY NOT IMPRESS. THE FRONT WILL
KNOCK BACK TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY FROM AROUND 70 ON TUESDAY INTO THE
MID 60S ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE THEN FORECAST TO JUMP BACK
WELL INTO THE 70S ON THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM. MODELS
ARE CONSISTENT SENDING A SECOND COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AGAIN...NOT THE BEST TIMING FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AND ONCE AGAIN MODEL QPF IS LIGHT. THIS
FRONT WILL KNOCK BACK TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S ON
FRIDAY INTO THE LOWER 70S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE AVIATION
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEPART. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT
BY FROM TIME TO TIME AS THEY MOVE AROUND RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BETWEEN 4 AND KFT MSL AND A FEW CU AROUND 5KFT
MIGHT BE POSSIBLE BY 18Z.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...JP








000
FXUS63 KJKL 201145 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
745 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

RAN A QUICK UPDATE ON THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST IN CONTROL OF
THE WEATHER OVER EAST KENTUCKY. EVEN SO...SOME HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO LINGER OVER FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE. THESE ARE THE LAST
REMNANTS...FOR KENTUCKY...OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY EDGING OUT
TO SEA OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE CLOUDS HAVE DONE LITTLE TO SLOW
THE DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES OVER THE EAST TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN
THE VALLEYS. IN FACT...A FAIRLY STANDARD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING
HAS LEFT SOME OF THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
40S WHILE THE RIDGES AND MORE OPEN AREAS ARE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
50S. THIS IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE CONDITIONS OF 24 HOURS AGO...
ALTHOUGH THE WINDS ARE LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE THIS NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...DEWPOINTS VARY FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORTH TO THE
LOWER 40S IN THE FAR SOUTH AND MANY OF THE DEEPER VALLEYS.

THE MODELS ARE AGAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS THE UNUSUALLY AMPLIFIED SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN DEVOLVES INTO A MORE RECOGNIZABLE ONE CONSISTING OF ONE MAIN
STREAM MOVING THROUGH THE COUNTRY BY TUESDAY. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL BE A TROUGH ROLLING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON MONDAY REPLACING OUR LOCAL RIDGING. THIS LOOSELY
CONSOLIDATED SOUTHERN TROUGH WILL TRANSFER MUCH OF ITS ENERGY TO A
MORE ROBUST ONE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS PROCESS RESULTS IN THE END OF SPLIT
FLOW OVER THE AREA AND ALLOWS A BROADER TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY AND KENTUCKY INTO TUESDAY...WHILE THE BULK OF THE MID
LEVEL ENERGY PASSES TO THE NORTH. THE MODELS DO SHOW SOME
DISCREPANCIES WITH THIS PATTERN CHANGE...PRIMARILY AROUND THE
LAKES...BUT A GENERAL MODEL BLEND APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE MORE SUNSHINE DAY AND WARM CONDITIONS
ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT WINDS...ALLOWING FOR A FINE END TO THE WEEKEND.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE A CONCERN FOR FIRE BEHAVIOR TODAY...BUT THE
LIGHT WIND FLOW WILL LIMIT ITS GROWTH AND ALSO ITS SMOKE DISPERSION.
AN SPS DETAILING THIS WILL BE CONTINUED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ANOTHER RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT
WILL SET UP TONIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...THOUGH SOME HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE NIGHT. THE
CEILINGS FROM THESE WILL THICKEN AND LOWER WITH TIME THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY...MITIGATING WHAT COULD HAVE BEEN A FAIRLY WARM DAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING...BUT WEAKENING...COLD FRONT.

AGAIN STARTED WITH THE CONSSHORT AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSSHORT
GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE...DEWPOINT...AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE
FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST FOLLOWED BY THE BC/CONSALL THEREAFTER.
DID ADJUST THE TEMPERATURES COLDER AND FASTER IN THE VALLEYS TONIGHT
AND ALSO TWEAKED DEWPOINTS DRIER FOR EACH AFTERNOON. AS FOR POPS...
ENDED UP IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN POPS BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...IN LINE WITH ALL
THE MOS GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

THE WEEK AHEAD WILL FEATURE A PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN ACROSS
THE CONUS. TWO SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT OUR REGION BUT NEITHER LOOK
PARTICULARLY STRONG. DURING THE MONTHS OF MARCH AND APRIL...NWS
JACKSON HAS ONLY ISSUED 5 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS THIS YEAR
VERSUS A 15 YEAR AVERAGE OF 39. IT IS DOUBTFUL LOOKING AT THE LATEST
MODELS THAT WE WILL ADD TO THAT WARNING TOTAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. FORECAST MODELS GENERATE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AS THE
FRONT PASSES BUT AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY NOT IMPRESS. THE FRONT WILL
KNOCK BACK TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY FROM AROUND 70 ON TUESDAY INTO THE
MID 60S ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE THEN FORECAST TO JUMP BACK
WELL INTO THE 70S ON THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM. MODELS
ARE CONSISTENT SENDING A SECOND COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AGAIN...NOT THE BEST TIMING FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AND ONCE AGAIN MODEL QPF IS LIGHT. THIS
FRONT WILL KNOCK BACK TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S ON
FRIDAY INTO THE LOWER 70S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE AVIATION
PERIOD. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT AND DEPART OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF EAST KENTUCKY DURING THE MORNING HOURS TODAY. NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 KTS WILL BECOME VARIABLE WHILE REMAINING
LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GREIF






000
FXUS63 KJKL 201145 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
745 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

RAN A QUICK UPDATE ON THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST IN CONTROL OF
THE WEATHER OVER EAST KENTUCKY. EVEN SO...SOME HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO LINGER OVER FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE. THESE ARE THE LAST
REMNANTS...FOR KENTUCKY...OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY EDGING OUT
TO SEA OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE CLOUDS HAVE DONE LITTLE TO SLOW
THE DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES OVER THE EAST TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN
THE VALLEYS. IN FACT...A FAIRLY STANDARD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING
HAS LEFT SOME OF THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
40S WHILE THE RIDGES AND MORE OPEN AREAS ARE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
50S. THIS IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE CONDITIONS OF 24 HOURS AGO...
ALTHOUGH THE WINDS ARE LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE THIS NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...DEWPOINTS VARY FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORTH TO THE
LOWER 40S IN THE FAR SOUTH AND MANY OF THE DEEPER VALLEYS.

THE MODELS ARE AGAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS THE UNUSUALLY AMPLIFIED SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN DEVOLVES INTO A MORE RECOGNIZABLE ONE CONSISTING OF ONE MAIN
STREAM MOVING THROUGH THE COUNTRY BY TUESDAY. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL BE A TROUGH ROLLING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON MONDAY REPLACING OUR LOCAL RIDGING. THIS LOOSELY
CONSOLIDATED SOUTHERN TROUGH WILL TRANSFER MUCH OF ITS ENERGY TO A
MORE ROBUST ONE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS PROCESS RESULTS IN THE END OF SPLIT
FLOW OVER THE AREA AND ALLOWS A BROADER TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY AND KENTUCKY INTO TUESDAY...WHILE THE BULK OF THE MID
LEVEL ENERGY PASSES TO THE NORTH. THE MODELS DO SHOW SOME
DISCREPANCIES WITH THIS PATTERN CHANGE...PRIMARILY AROUND THE
LAKES...BUT A GENERAL MODEL BLEND APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE MORE SUNSHINE DAY AND WARM CONDITIONS
ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT WINDS...ALLOWING FOR A FINE END TO THE WEEKEND.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE A CONCERN FOR FIRE BEHAVIOR TODAY...BUT THE
LIGHT WIND FLOW WILL LIMIT ITS GROWTH AND ALSO ITS SMOKE DISPERSION.
AN SPS DETAILING THIS WILL BE CONTINUED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ANOTHER RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT
WILL SET UP TONIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...THOUGH SOME HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE NIGHT. THE
CEILINGS FROM THESE WILL THICKEN AND LOWER WITH TIME THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY...MITIGATING WHAT COULD HAVE BEEN A FAIRLY WARM DAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING...BUT WEAKENING...COLD FRONT.

AGAIN STARTED WITH THE CONSSHORT AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSSHORT
GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE...DEWPOINT...AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE
FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST FOLLOWED BY THE BC/CONSALL THEREAFTER.
DID ADJUST THE TEMPERATURES COLDER AND FASTER IN THE VALLEYS TONIGHT
AND ALSO TWEAKED DEWPOINTS DRIER FOR EACH AFTERNOON. AS FOR POPS...
ENDED UP IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN POPS BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...IN LINE WITH ALL
THE MOS GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

THE WEEK AHEAD WILL FEATURE A PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN ACROSS
THE CONUS. TWO SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT OUR REGION BUT NEITHER LOOK
PARTICULARLY STRONG. DURING THE MONTHS OF MARCH AND APRIL...NWS
JACKSON HAS ONLY ISSUED 5 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS THIS YEAR
VERSUS A 15 YEAR AVERAGE OF 39. IT IS DOUBTFUL LOOKING AT THE LATEST
MODELS THAT WE WILL ADD TO THAT WARNING TOTAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. FORECAST MODELS GENERATE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AS THE
FRONT PASSES BUT AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY NOT IMPRESS. THE FRONT WILL
KNOCK BACK TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY FROM AROUND 70 ON TUESDAY INTO THE
MID 60S ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE THEN FORECAST TO JUMP BACK
WELL INTO THE 70S ON THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM. MODELS
ARE CONSISTENT SENDING A SECOND COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AGAIN...NOT THE BEST TIMING FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AND ONCE AGAIN MODEL QPF IS LIGHT. THIS
FRONT WILL KNOCK BACK TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S ON
FRIDAY INTO THE LOWER 70S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE AVIATION
PERIOD. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT AND DEPART OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF EAST KENTUCKY DURING THE MORNING HOURS TODAY. NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 KTS WILL BECOME VARIABLE WHILE REMAINING
LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GREIF





000
FXUS63 KJKL 200730 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
330 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST IN CONTROL OF
THE WEATHER OVER EAST KENTUCKY. EVEN SO...SOME HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO LINGER OVER FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE. THESE ARE THE LAST
REMNANTS...FOR KENTUCKY...OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY EDGING OUT
TO SEA OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE CLOUDS HAVE DONE LITTLE TO SLOW
THE DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES OVER THE EAST TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN
THE VALLEYS. IN FACT...A FAIRLY STANDARD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING
HAS LEFT SOME OF THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
40S WHILE THE RIDGES AND MORE OPEN AREAS ARE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
50S. THIS IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE CONDITIONS OF 24 HOURS AGO...
ALTHOUGH THE WINDS ARE LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE THIS NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...DEWPOINTS VARY FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORTH TO THE
LOWER 40S IN THE FAR SOUTH AND MANY OF THE DEEPER VALLEYS.

THE MODELS ARE AGAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS THE UNUSUALLY AMPLIFIED SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN DEVOLVES INTO A MORE RECOGNIZABLE ONE CONSISTING OF ONE MAIN
STREAM MOVING THROUGH THE COUNTRY BY TUESDAY. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL BE A TROUGH ROLLING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON MONDAY REPLACING OUR LOCAL RIDGING. THIS LOOSELY
CONSOLIDATED SOUTHERN TROUGH WILL TRANSFER MUCH OF ITS ENERGY TO A
MORE ROBUST ONE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS PROCESS RESULTS IN THE END OF SPLIT
FLOW OVER THE AREA AND ALLOWS A BROADER TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY AND KENTUCKY INTO TUESDAY...WHILE THE BULK OF THE MID
LEVEL ENERGY PASSES TO THE NORTH. THE MODELS DO SHOW SOME
DISCREPANCIES WITH THIS PATTERN CHANGE...PRIMARILY AROUND THE
LAKES...BUT A GENERAL MODEL BLEND APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE MORE SUNSHINE DAY AND WARM CONDITIONS
ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT WINDS...ALLOWING FOR A FINE END TO THE WEEKEND.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE A CONCERN FOR FIRE BEHAVIOR TODAY...BUT THE
LIGHT WIND FLOW WILL LIMIT ITS GROWTH AND ALSO ITS SMOKE DISPERSION.
AN SPS DETAILING THIS WILL BE CONTINUED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ANOTHER RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT
WILL SET UP TONIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...THOUGH SOME HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE NIGHT. THE
CEILINGS FROM THESE WILL THICKEN AND LOWER WITH TIME THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY...MITIGATING WHAT COULD HAVE BEEN A FAIRLY WARM DAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING...BUT WEAKENING...COLD FRONT.

AGAIN STARTED WITH THE CONSSHORT AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSSHORT
GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE...DEWPOINT...AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE
FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST FOLLOWED BY THE BC/CONSALL THEREAFTER.
DID ADJUST THE TEMPERATURES COLDER AND FASTER IN THE VALLEYS TONIGHT
AND ALSO TWEAKED DEWPOINTS DRIER FOR EACH AFTERNOON. AS FOR POPS...
ENDED UP IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN POPS BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...IN LINE WITH ALL
THE MOS GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

THE WEEK AHEAD WILL FEATURE A PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN ACROSS
THE CONUS. TWO SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT OUR REGION BUT NEITHER LOOK
PARTICULARLY STRONG. DURING THE MONTHS OF MARCH AND APRIL...NWS
JACKSON HAS ONLY ISSUED 5 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS THIS YEAR
VERSUS A 15 YEAR AVERAGE OF 39. IT IS DOUBTFUL LOOKING AT THE LATEST
MODELS THAT WE WILL ADD TO THAT WARNING TOTAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. FORECAST MODELS GENERATE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AS THE
FRONT PASSES BUT AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY NOT IMPRESS. THE FRONT WILL
KNOCK BACK TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY FROM AROUND 70 ON TUESDAY INTO THE
MID 60S ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE THEN FORECAST TO JUMP BACK
WELL INTO THE 70S ON THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM. MODELS
ARE CONSISTENT SENDING A SECOND COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AGAIN...NOT THE BEST TIMING FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AND ONCE AGAIN MODEL QPF IS LIGHT. THIS
FRONT WILL KNOCK BACK TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S ON
FRIDAY INTO THE LOWER 70S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AVIATION
PERIOD. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT AND DEPART OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF EAST KENTUCKY INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY. NORTH
TO NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 KTS WILL BECOME VARIABLE WHILE REMAINING
LIGHT DURING SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GREIF






000
FXUS63 KJKL 200545 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
145 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

DID AN UPDATE TO THE T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE
ARE MOSTLY ON TRACK WITH THE EASTERN VALLEYS DROPPING OFF SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT...AGAIN DESPITE THE HIGH CLOUDS THAT REMAIN OVER THAT PART
OF THE STATE. DID ALSO FINE TUNE THE EXIT OF THESE HIGH CLOUDS AS LOW
PRESSURE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST PULLS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA.
THESE FRESHENED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1041 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK TONIGHT. VALLEYS ARE DECOUPLING NICELY
NOW...WITH READINGS IN THE COOLER SPOTS DOWN IN THE LOW 50S...WHILE
BROADER VALLEYS AND RIDGETOPS ARE STILL IN THE LOW 60S. CIRRUS IS
ALSO STARTING TO THIN OUT...SO MAINLY JUST FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 759 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

MAINLY FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY SKY COVER...TEMPERATURES...AND DEW
POINTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE CIRRUS SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SPIRALING EAST OFF THE GA/FL COAST HAS INCREASED
A BIT ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...HOWEVER WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AN OVERALL MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT...AS THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD BE THINNING OUT LATER THIS EVENING. SO FAR...VALLEYS HAVE NOT
DECOUPLED...HOWEVER EXPECT THIS TO INITIATE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT FORECAST LOWS INTACT AND MONITOR TRENDS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
HANDLING DEW POINTS AND SURFACE WINDS MISERABLY. OF PARTICULAR
CONCERN ARE THOSE AREAS IN THE VICINITY OF THE RED RIVER GORGE WHEN
THRESHOLDS HAVE BEEN MET. WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY CLIMB TO OR JUST
BELOW 15 MPH...BUT THE MAGNITUDE TO THE WIND GUSTS WAS OF A BIGGER
CONCERN...TOPPING OUT NEAR 30 MPH. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROPPED TO
BETWEEN 20 AND 25 PERCENT FOR MANY LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. TOMORROW
PRESENTS A SIMILAR SET UP. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER WITH ABSENCE OF
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS STORM SYSTEM...BUT BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS
EXPECT THERE WILL BE DRIER AIR ALOFT TOMORROW THAN TODAY. MIXING WILL
BE DEEP ENOUGH TO BRING THAT DRIER AIR DOWN. SO WHILE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE AS LOW OR SLIGHTLY LOWER.
BOTTOM LINE IS THAT AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR WILD FIRES WILL CONTINUE
TO EXIST FOR EASTER SUNDAY.

OTHERWISE...OUR AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGING ALOFT AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. SO DRY AND PLEASANTLY
WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS...GENERALLY OUT
OF THE EAST ON SUNDAY MAY KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM GETTING TOO WARM
BUT AIR IS QUITE DRY SO THAT MAY MAKE UP SOME OF THE DIFFERENCE HAD
OUR WINDS BEEN MORE SOUTHERLY. WINDS WILL VEER...BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST. ON MONDAY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF WILL BE
MOVING EAST FROM THE PLAINS WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST FROM THE
UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE MODEL TRENDS HAVE
BEEN SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND WILL DROP ALL MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR MONDAY. STILL APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING AGAIN BY
THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AT THE END OF
THE WEEK...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER COOL DOWN WILL FOLLOW AS WE MOVE
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AVIATION
PERIOD. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT AND DEPART OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF EAST KENTUCKY INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY. NORTH
TO NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 KTS WILL BECOME VARIABLE WHILE REMAINING
LIGHT DURING SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...GREIF






000
FXUS63 KJKL 200545 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
145 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

DID AN UPDATE TO THE T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE
ARE MOSTLY ON TRACK WITH THE EASTERN VALLEYS DROPPING OFF SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT...AGAIN DESPITE THE HIGH CLOUDS THAT REMAIN OVER THAT PART
OF THE STATE. DID ALSO FINE TUNE THE EXIT OF THESE HIGH CLOUDS AS LOW
PRESSURE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST PULLS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA.
THESE FRESHENED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1041 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK TONIGHT. VALLEYS ARE DECOUPLING NICELY
NOW...WITH READINGS IN THE COOLER SPOTS DOWN IN THE LOW 50S...WHILE
BROADER VALLEYS AND RIDGETOPS ARE STILL IN THE LOW 60S. CIRRUS IS
ALSO STARTING TO THIN OUT...SO MAINLY JUST FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 759 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

MAINLY FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY SKY COVER...TEMPERATURES...AND DEW
POINTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE CIRRUS SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SPIRALING EAST OFF THE GA/FL COAST HAS INCREASED
A BIT ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...HOWEVER WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AN OVERALL MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT...AS THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD BE THINNING OUT LATER THIS EVENING. SO FAR...VALLEYS HAVE NOT
DECOUPLED...HOWEVER EXPECT THIS TO INITIATE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT FORECAST LOWS INTACT AND MONITOR TRENDS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
HANDLING DEW POINTS AND SURFACE WINDS MISERABLY. OF PARTICULAR
CONCERN ARE THOSE AREAS IN THE VICINITY OF THE RED RIVER GORGE WHEN
THRESHOLDS HAVE BEEN MET. WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY CLIMB TO OR JUST
BELOW 15 MPH...BUT THE MAGNITUDE TO THE WIND GUSTS WAS OF A BIGGER
CONCERN...TOPPING OUT NEAR 30 MPH. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROPPED TO
BETWEEN 20 AND 25 PERCENT FOR MANY LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. TOMORROW
PRESENTS A SIMILAR SET UP. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER WITH ABSENCE OF
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS STORM SYSTEM...BUT BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS
EXPECT THERE WILL BE DRIER AIR ALOFT TOMORROW THAN TODAY. MIXING WILL
BE DEEP ENOUGH TO BRING THAT DRIER AIR DOWN. SO WHILE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE AS LOW OR SLIGHTLY LOWER.
BOTTOM LINE IS THAT AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR WILD FIRES WILL CONTINUE
TO EXIST FOR EASTER SUNDAY.

OTHERWISE...OUR AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGING ALOFT AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. SO DRY AND PLEASANTLY
WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS...GENERALLY OUT
OF THE EAST ON SUNDAY MAY KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM GETTING TOO WARM
BUT AIR IS QUITE DRY SO THAT MAY MAKE UP SOME OF THE DIFFERENCE HAD
OUR WINDS BEEN MORE SOUTHERLY. WINDS WILL VEER...BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST. ON MONDAY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF WILL BE
MOVING EAST FROM THE PLAINS WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST FROM THE
UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE MODEL TRENDS HAVE
BEEN SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND WILL DROP ALL MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR MONDAY. STILL APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING AGAIN BY
THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AT THE END OF
THE WEEK...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER COOL DOWN WILL FOLLOW AS WE MOVE
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AVIATION
PERIOD. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT AND DEPART OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF EAST KENTUCKY INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY. NORTH
TO NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 KTS WILL BECOME VARIABLE WHILE REMAINING
LIGHT DURING SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...GREIF





000
FXUS63 KJKL 200241 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1041 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1041 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK TONIGHT. VALLEYS ARE DECOUPLING NICELY
NOW...WITH READINGS IN THE COOLER SPOTS DOWN IN THE LOW 50S...WHILE
BROADER VALLEYS AND RIDGETOPS ARE STILL IN THE LOW 60S. CIRRUS IS
ALSO STARTING TO THIN OUT...SO MAINLY JUST FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 759 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

MAINLY FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY SKY COVER...TEMPERATURES...AND DEW
POINTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE CIRRUS SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SPIRALING EAST OFF THE GA/FL COAST HAS INCREASED
A BIT ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...HOWEVER WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AN OVERALL MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT...AS THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD BE THINNING OUT LATER THIS EVENING. SO FAR...VALLEYS HAVE NOT
DECOUPLED...HOWEVER EXPECT THIS TO INITIATE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT FORECAST LOWS INTACT AND MONITOR TRENDS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
HANDLING DEW POINTS AND SURFACE WINDS MISERABLY. OF PARTICULAR
CONCERN ARE THOSE AREAS IN THE VICINITY OF THE RED RIVER GORGE WHEN
THRESHOLDS HAVE BEEN MET. WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY CLIMB TO OR JUST
BELOW 15 MPH...BUT THE MAGNITUDE TO THE WIND GUSTS WAS OF A BIGGER
CONCERN...TOPPING OUT NEAR 30 MPH. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROPPED TO
BETWEEN 20 AND 25 PERCENT FOR MANY LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. TOMORROW
PRESENTS A SIMILAR SET UP. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER WITH ABSENCE OF
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS STORM SYSTEM...BUT BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS
EXPECT THERE WILL BE DRIER AIR ALOFT TOMORROW THAN TODAY. MIXING WILL
BE DEEP ENOUGH TO BRING THAT DRIER AIR DOWN. SO WHILE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE AS LOW OR SLIGHTLY LOWER.
BOTTOM LINE IS THAT AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR WILD FIRES WILL CONTINUE
TO EXIST FOR EASTER SUNDAY.

OTHERWISE...OUR AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGING ALOFT AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. SO DRY AND PLEASANTLY
WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS...GENERALLY OUT
OF THE EAST ON SUNDAY MAY KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM GETTING TOO WARM
BUT AIR IS QUITE DRY SO THAT MAY MAKE UP SOME OF THE DIFFERENCE HAD
OUR WINDS BEEN MORE SOUTHERLY. WINDS WILL VEER...BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST. ON MONDAY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF WILL BE
MOVING EAST FROM THE PLAINS WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST FROM THE
UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE MODEL TRENDS HAVE
BEEN SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND WILL DROP ALL MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR MONDAY. STILL APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING AGAIN BY
THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AT THE END OF
THE WEEK...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER COOL DOWN WILL FOLLOW AS WE MOVE
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 759 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THE PERIOD...BESIDES SOME
HIGH CLOUDS GRADUALLY THINNING OUT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER 02Z.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN








000
FXUS63 KJKL 200241 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1041 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1041 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK TONIGHT. VALLEYS ARE DECOUPLING NICELY
NOW...WITH READINGS IN THE COOLER SPOTS DOWN IN THE LOW 50S...WHILE
BROADER VALLEYS AND RIDGETOPS ARE STILL IN THE LOW 60S. CIRRUS IS
ALSO STARTING TO THIN OUT...SO MAINLY JUST FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 759 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

MAINLY FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY SKY COVER...TEMPERATURES...AND DEW
POINTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE CIRRUS SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SPIRALING EAST OFF THE GA/FL COAST HAS INCREASED
A BIT ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...HOWEVER WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AN OVERALL MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT...AS THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD BE THINNING OUT LATER THIS EVENING. SO FAR...VALLEYS HAVE NOT
DECOUPLED...HOWEVER EXPECT THIS TO INITIATE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT FORECAST LOWS INTACT AND MONITOR TRENDS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
HANDLING DEW POINTS AND SURFACE WINDS MISERABLY. OF PARTICULAR
CONCERN ARE THOSE AREAS IN THE VICINITY OF THE RED RIVER GORGE WHEN
THRESHOLDS HAVE BEEN MET. WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY CLIMB TO OR JUST
BELOW 15 MPH...BUT THE MAGNITUDE TO THE WIND GUSTS WAS OF A BIGGER
CONCERN...TOPPING OUT NEAR 30 MPH. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROPPED TO
BETWEEN 20 AND 25 PERCENT FOR MANY LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. TOMORROW
PRESENTS A SIMILAR SET UP. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER WITH ABSENCE OF
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS STORM SYSTEM...BUT BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS
EXPECT THERE WILL BE DRIER AIR ALOFT TOMORROW THAN TODAY. MIXING WILL
BE DEEP ENOUGH TO BRING THAT DRIER AIR DOWN. SO WHILE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE AS LOW OR SLIGHTLY LOWER.
BOTTOM LINE IS THAT AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR WILD FIRES WILL CONTINUE
TO EXIST FOR EASTER SUNDAY.

OTHERWISE...OUR AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGING ALOFT AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. SO DRY AND PLEASANTLY
WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS...GENERALLY OUT
OF THE EAST ON SUNDAY MAY KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM GETTING TOO WARM
BUT AIR IS QUITE DRY SO THAT MAY MAKE UP SOME OF THE DIFFERENCE HAD
OUR WINDS BEEN MORE SOUTHERLY. WINDS WILL VEER...BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST. ON MONDAY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF WILL BE
MOVING EAST FROM THE PLAINS WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST FROM THE
UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE MODEL TRENDS HAVE
BEEN SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND WILL DROP ALL MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR MONDAY. STILL APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING AGAIN BY
THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AT THE END OF
THE WEEK...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER COOL DOWN WILL FOLLOW AS WE MOVE
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 759 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THE PERIOD...BESIDES SOME
HIGH CLOUDS GRADUALLY THINNING OUT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER 02Z.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN







000
FXUS63 KJKL 192359 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
759 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 759 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

MAINLY FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY SKY COVER...TEMPERATURES...AND DEW
POINTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE CIRRUS SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SPIRALING EAST OFF THE GA/FL COAST HAS INCREASED
A BIT ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...HOWEVER WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AN OVERALL MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT...AS THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD BE THINNING OUT LATER THIS EVENING. SO FAR...VALLEYS HAVE NOT
DECOUPLED...HOWEVER EXPECT THIS TO INITIATE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT FORECAST LOWS INTACT AND MONITOR TRENDS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
HANDLING DEW POINTS AND SURFACE WINDS MISERABLY. OF PARTICULAR
CONCERN ARE THOSE AREAS IN THE VICINITY OF THE RED RIVER GORGE WHEN
THRESHOLDS HAVE BEEN MET. WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY CLIMB TO OR JUST
BELOW 15 MPH...BUT THE MAGNITUDE TO THE WIND GUSTS WAS OF A BIGGER
CONCERN...TOPPING OUT NEAR 30 MPH. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROPPED TO
BETWEEN 20 AND 25 PERCENT FOR MANY LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. TOMORROW
PRESENTS A SIMILAR SET UP. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER WITH ABSENCE OF
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS STORM SYSTEM...BUT BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS
EXPECT THERE WILL BE DRIER AIR ALOFT TOMORROW THAN TODAY. MIXING WILL
BE DEEP ENOUGH TO BRING THAT DRIER AIR DOWN. SO WHILE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE AS LOW OR SLIGHTLY LOWER.
BOTTOM LINE IS THAT AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR WILD FIRES WILL CONTINUE
TO EXIST FOR EASTER SUNDAY.

OTHERWISE...OUR AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGING ALOFT AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. SO DRY AND PLEASANTLY
WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS...GENERALLY OUT
OF THE EAST ON SUNDAY MAY KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM GETTING TOO WARM
BUT AIR IS QUITE DRY SO THAT MAY MAKE UP SOME OF THE DIFFERENCE HAD
OUR WINDS BEEN MORE SOUTHERLY. WINDS WILL VEER...BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST. ON MONDAY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF WILL BE
MOVING EAST FROM THE PLAINS WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST FROM THE
UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE MODEL TRENDS HAVE
BEEN SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND WILL DROP ALL MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR MONDAY. STILL APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING AGAIN BY
THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AT THE END OF
THE WEEK...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER COOL DOWN WILL FOLLOW AS WE MOVE
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 759 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THE PERIOD...BESIDES SOME
HIGH CLOUDS GRADUALLY THINNING OUT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER 02Z.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN








000
FXUS63 KJKL 192359 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
759 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 759 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

MAINLY FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY SKY COVER...TEMPERATURES...AND DEW
POINTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE CIRRUS SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SPIRALING EAST OFF THE GA/FL COAST HAS INCREASED
A BIT ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...HOWEVER WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AN OVERALL MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT...AS THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD BE THINNING OUT LATER THIS EVENING. SO FAR...VALLEYS HAVE NOT
DECOUPLED...HOWEVER EXPECT THIS TO INITIATE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT FORECAST LOWS INTACT AND MONITOR TRENDS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
HANDLING DEW POINTS AND SURFACE WINDS MISERABLY. OF PARTICULAR
CONCERN ARE THOSE AREAS IN THE VICINITY OF THE RED RIVER GORGE WHEN
THRESHOLDS HAVE BEEN MET. WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY CLIMB TO OR JUST
BELOW 15 MPH...BUT THE MAGNITUDE TO THE WIND GUSTS WAS OF A BIGGER
CONCERN...TOPPING OUT NEAR 30 MPH. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROPPED TO
BETWEEN 20 AND 25 PERCENT FOR MANY LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. TOMORROW
PRESENTS A SIMILAR SET UP. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER WITH ABSENCE OF
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS STORM SYSTEM...BUT BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS
EXPECT THERE WILL BE DRIER AIR ALOFT TOMORROW THAN TODAY. MIXING WILL
BE DEEP ENOUGH TO BRING THAT DRIER AIR DOWN. SO WHILE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE AS LOW OR SLIGHTLY LOWER.
BOTTOM LINE IS THAT AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR WILD FIRES WILL CONTINUE
TO EXIST FOR EASTER SUNDAY.

OTHERWISE...OUR AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGING ALOFT AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. SO DRY AND PLEASANTLY
WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS...GENERALLY OUT
OF THE EAST ON SUNDAY MAY KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM GETTING TOO WARM
BUT AIR IS QUITE DRY SO THAT MAY MAKE UP SOME OF THE DIFFERENCE HAD
OUR WINDS BEEN MORE SOUTHERLY. WINDS WILL VEER...BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST. ON MONDAY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF WILL BE
MOVING EAST FROM THE PLAINS WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST FROM THE
UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE MODEL TRENDS HAVE
BEEN SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND WILL DROP ALL MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR MONDAY. STILL APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING AGAIN BY
THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AT THE END OF
THE WEEK...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER COOL DOWN WILL FOLLOW AS WE MOVE
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 759 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THE PERIOD...BESIDES SOME
HIGH CLOUDS GRADUALLY THINNING OUT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER 02Z.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN







000
FXUS63 KJKL 191937
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
337 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
HANDLING DEW POINTS AND SURFACE WINDS MISERABLY. OF PARTICULAR
CONCERN ARE THOSE AREAS IN THE VICINITY OF THE RED RIVER GORGE WHEN
THRESHOLDS HAVE BEEN MET. WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY CLIMB TO OR JUST
BELOW 15 MPH...BUT THE MAGNITUDE TO THE WIND GUSTS WAS OF A BIGGER
CONCERN...TOPPING OUT NEAR 30 MPH. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROPPED TO
BETWEEN 20 AND 25 PERCENT FOR MANY LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. TOMORROW
PRESENTS A SIMILAR SET UP. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER WITH ABSENCE OF
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS STORM SYSTEM...BUT BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS
EXPECT THERE WILL BE DRIER AIR ALOFT TOMORROW THAN TODAY. MIXING WILL
BE DEEP ENOUGH TO BRING THAT DRIER AIR DOWN. SO WHILE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE AS LOW OR SLIGHTLY LOWER.
BOTTOM LINE IS THAT AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR WILD FIRES WILL CONTINUE
TO EXIST FOR EASTER SUNDAY.

OTHERWISE...OUR AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGING ALOFT AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. SO DRY AND PLEASANTLY
WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS...GENERALLY OUT
OF THE EAST ON SUNDAY MAY KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM GETTING TOO WARM
BUT AIR IS QUITE DRY SO THAT MAY MAKE UP SOME OF THE DIFFERENCE HAD
OUR WINDS BEEN MORE SOUTHERLY. WINDS WILL VEER...BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST. ON MONDAY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF WILL BE
MOVING EAST FROM THE PLAINS WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST FROM THE
UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE MODEL TRENDS HAVE
BEEN SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND WILL DROP ALL MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR MONDAY. STILL APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING AGAIN BY
THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AT THE END OF
THE WEEK...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER COOL DOWN WILL FOLLOW AS WE MOVE
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 221 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN
10 AND 15 KTS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
PERIOD...BECOMING LIGHT THEREAFTER.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ058>060-108-
111.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...RAY








000
FXUS63 KJKL 191937
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
337 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
HANDLING DEW POINTS AND SURFACE WINDS MISERABLY. OF PARTICULAR
CONCERN ARE THOSE AREAS IN THE VICINITY OF THE RED RIVER GORGE WHEN
THRESHOLDS HAVE BEEN MET. WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY CLIMB TO OR JUST
BELOW 15 MPH...BUT THE MAGNITUDE TO THE WIND GUSTS WAS OF A BIGGER
CONCERN...TOPPING OUT NEAR 30 MPH. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROPPED TO
BETWEEN 20 AND 25 PERCENT FOR MANY LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. TOMORROW
PRESENTS A SIMILAR SET UP. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER WITH ABSENCE OF
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS STORM SYSTEM...BUT BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS
EXPECT THERE WILL BE DRIER AIR ALOFT TOMORROW THAN TODAY. MIXING WILL
BE DEEP ENOUGH TO BRING THAT DRIER AIR DOWN. SO WHILE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE AS LOW OR SLIGHTLY LOWER.
BOTTOM LINE IS THAT AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR WILD FIRES WILL CONTINUE
TO EXIST FOR EASTER SUNDAY.

OTHERWISE...OUR AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGING ALOFT AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. SO DRY AND PLEASANTLY
WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS...GENERALLY OUT
OF THE EAST ON SUNDAY MAY KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM GETTING TOO WARM
BUT AIR IS QUITE DRY SO THAT MAY MAKE UP SOME OF THE DIFFERENCE HAD
OUR WINDS BEEN MORE SOUTHERLY. WINDS WILL VEER...BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST. ON MONDAY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF WILL BE
MOVING EAST FROM THE PLAINS WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST FROM THE
UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE MODEL TRENDS HAVE
BEEN SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND WILL DROP ALL MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR MONDAY. STILL APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING AGAIN BY
THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AT THE END OF
THE WEEK...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER COOL DOWN WILL FOLLOW AS WE MOVE
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 221 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN
10 AND 15 KTS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
PERIOD...BECOMING LIGHT THEREAFTER.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ058>060-108-
111.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...RAY







000
FXUS63 KJKL 191821
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
221 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 221 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

HAD UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR RED FLAG WARNING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...MORE SPECIFICALLY ACROSS THE RED RIVER GORGE AREA AS
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1251 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...WHICH WITH STRONG
SUNSHINE AND GOOD MIXING WILL DROP BELOW LEVELS ORIGINALLY FORECAST.
WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF SLIGHTLY FROM THIS MORNINGS MIX OUT...BUT ARE
STILL NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS AT ONE OR TWO OBSERVATION
STATIONS. OVERALL EXPECT A VERY GRADUAL DECREASE IN WINDS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND THEREFORE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FIRE
WEATHER PROBLEMS. HOWEVER WILL MONITOR CLOSELY AND HAVE ISSUED A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT CONCERNS FOR ENHANCED WILD
FIRES THIS AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1031 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE THIS MORNING...JUST LIKE THE WEEKEND. FEW
MINOR TWEAKS TO GRIDS TO COME IN LINE WITH LATEST HOURLY OBS. DID TRY
TO TIGHTEN UP THE GRADIENT IN THE SKY GRIDS AS SUBSIDENCE ON THE
PERIPHERAL OF SOUTHEAST STORM SYSTEM IS EATING AWAY SOME OF THE
HIGHER CI AND MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. TEMPS
WERE A LITTLE SLOW OUT OF THE GATE FOR SOME OF OUR VALLEY LOCATIONS
BUT AFTERNOON HIGHS LOOK ON TARGET. WILL MAKE FINAL ADJUSTMENTS WITH
NEXT UPDATE...IF NEEDED. INVERSION HAS MIXED OUT...ALLOWING WINDS TO
INCREASE FROM THEIR LIGHTER EARLY MORNING LEVELS. THEREFORE FRESHENED
UP ZONES TO REMOVE LIGHT WIND/AFTERNOON WORDING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE T AND TD GRIDS AS WELL AS THE LOW
TEMPERATURE GRID FOR THIS MORNING. ALSO...ADJUSTED THE SKY COVER
GRIDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS GIVEN THE PIVOT AND RESURGENCE OF
THE HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE SEEN IN THE LATEST SATELLITE LOOP. THESE
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND STRETCHED SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE A LOW PRESSURE
AREA IS SLOWLY PASSING WELL TO THE SOUTH OF EAST KENTUCKY. THIS
SOUTHERN SYSTEM IS KEEPING HIGH CLOUDS...GENERALLY THICKER
SOUTHEAST...OVER THE CWA THIS NIGHT. THIS...COMBINED WITH LIGHT
NORTHEAST SFC WIND FLOW...HAS SLOWED THE DECLINE OF TEMPERATURES FOR
MOST PLACES OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION IS THE MOST SHELTERED VALLEYS IN
THE EAST...AND A FEW IN THE SOUTHWEST LIKE EKQ...WHERE READINGS ARE
IN THE MIDDLE 40S WHILE MID AND UPPER 50S ARE MORE COMMON ELSEWHERE.
DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE RUNNING IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S THROUGH
THE NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA COMPARED TO THE LOW AND MID 40S OVER
THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY REGION.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST DESPITE THE CURRENT UNSTABLE MID LEVEL
PATTERN. KENTUCKY WILL BE SPLIT BY AMPLIFIED FLOW TO THE SOUTH AND
NORTH...FEATURING DEEP AND...IN SOME CASES...CLOSED OFF LOWS. THIS
IS AN UNUSUAL SETUP...BUT WHILE IT HOLDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EAST
KENTUCKY WILL REAP THE BENEFITS OF QUIET WEATHER. LOCAL MID LEVEL
RIDGING IN THE SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM WILL KEEP ENERGY FAR AWAY
FROM EAST KENTUCKY DURING THIS TIME. AS SUCH...HAVE FOLLOWED A MODEL
BLEND FOR WEATHER DETAILS THROUGH SUNDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CONTINUATION OF PLEASANT CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL RETREAT OFF TO THE EAST
DURING THE DAY ALLOWING FOR MORE SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S IN MOST PLACES. CLEARER
SKIES TONIGHT WILL MAKE FOR A BETTER SETUP LEADING TO RIDGE VERSUS
VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A RETURN OF
SOME MID AND LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
THROUGH THE BULK OF THE DAY WILL HELP SUPPORT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 70S FOR EAST KENTUCKY.

STARTED WITH THE CONSSHORT AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSSHORT GUIDANCE FOR
THE TEMPERATURE...DEWPOINT...AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24
HOURS OF THE FORECAST FOLLOWED BY THE BC/CONSALL THEREAFTER. DID
ADJUST THE TEMPERATURES COLDER IN THE VALLEYS TONIGHT AND ALSO
TWEAKED DEWPOINTS DRIER EACH AFTERNOON. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP IN THE
LOW SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...IN LINE WITH ALL THE
GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BRING DRY WARM CONDITIONS
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WITH THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM...WITH THE ECMWF PERHAPS BEING A BIT
SLOWER THAN THE GFS TO START THINGS OFF. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH YET ANOTHER WARM UP ON
TAP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. THE MODELS ARE A BIT OUT OF SYNC WITH THE LATE WEEK
SYSTEM. BOTH MODELS DEVELOP AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVE THIS SYSTEM EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...OHIO VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS. THE ECWMF IS QUITE
A BIT SLOWER...LESS MOIST AND WEAKER WITH ITS WEATHER SYSTEM THAN
THE GFS. THAT ALL BEING SAID...USED A BLEND BETWEEN THE TWO MODEL
SOLUTIONS FOR THIS TIME FRAME...WITH MAX PRECIPITATION CHANCES OF
ONLY 30 PERCENT DURING SYSTEM PASSAGE. OVERALL...A VERY PLEASANT
WEEK IS ON TAP...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 60S AND 70S EACH
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 221 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN
10 AND 15 KTS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
PERIOD...BECOMING LIGHT THEREAFTER.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ058>060-108-
111.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...RAY








000
FXUS63 KJKL 191651
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1251 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1251 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...WHICH WITH STRONG
SUNSHINE AND GOOD MIXING WILL DROP BELOW LEVELS ORIGINALLY FORECAST.
WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF SLIGHTLY FROM THIS MORNINGS MIX OUT...BUT ARE
STILL NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS AT ONE OR TWO OBSERVATION
STATIONS. OVERALL EXPECT A VERY GRADUAL DECREASE IN WINDS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND THEREFORE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FIRE
WEATHER PROBLEMS. HOWEVER WILL MONITOR CLOSELY AND HAVE ISSUED A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT CONCERNS FOR ENHANCED WILD
FIRES THIS AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1031 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE THIS MORNING...JUST LIKE THE WEEKEND. FEW
MINOR TWEAKS TO GRIDS TO COME IN LINE WITH LATEST HOURLY OBS. DID TRY
TO TIGHTEN UP THE GRADIENT IN THE SKY GRIDS AS SUBSIDENCE ON THE
PERIPHERAL OF SOUTHEAST STORM SYSTEM IS EATING AWAY SOME OF THE
HIGHER CI AND MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. TEMPS
WERE A LITTLE SLOW OUT OF THE GATE FOR SOME OF OUR VALLEY LOCATIONS
BUT AFTERNOON HIGHS LOOK ON TARGET. WILL MAKE FINAL ADJUSTMENTS WITH
NEXT UPDATE...IF NEEDED. INVERSION HAS MIXED OUT...ALLOWING WINDS TO
INCREASE FROM THEIR LIGHTER EARLY MORNING LEVELS. THEREFORE FRESHENED
UP ZONES TO REMOVE LIGHT WIND/AFTERNOON WORDING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE T AND TD GRIDS AS WELL AS THE LOW
TEMPERATURE GRID FOR THIS MORNING. ALSO...ADJUSTED THE SKY COVER
GRIDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS GIVEN THE PIVOT AND RESURGENCE OF
THE HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE SEEN IN THE LATEST SATELLITE LOOP. THESE
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND STRETCHED SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE A LOW PRESSURE
AREA IS SLOWLY PASSING WELL TO THE SOUTH OF EAST KENTUCKY. THIS
SOUTHERN SYSTEM IS KEEPING HIGH CLOUDS...GENERALLY THICKER
SOUTHEAST...OVER THE CWA THIS NIGHT. THIS...COMBINED WITH LIGHT
NORTHEAST SFC WIND FLOW...HAS SLOWED THE DECLINE OF TEMPERATURES FOR
MOST PLACES OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION IS THE MOST SHELTERED VALLEYS IN
THE EAST...AND A FEW IN THE SOUTHWEST LIKE EKQ...WHERE READINGS ARE
IN THE MIDDLE 40S WHILE MID AND UPPER 50S ARE MORE COMMON ELSEWHERE.
DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE RUNNING IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S THROUGH
THE NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA COMPARED TO THE LOW AND MID 40S OVER
THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY REGION.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST DESPITE THE CURRENT UNSTABLE MID LEVEL
PATTERN. KENTUCKY WILL BE SPLIT BY AMPLIFIED FLOW TO THE SOUTH AND
NORTH...FEATURING DEEP AND...IN SOME CASES...CLOSED OFF LOWS. THIS
IS AN UNUSUAL SETUP...BUT WHILE IT HOLDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EAST
KENTUCKY WILL REAP THE BENEFITS OF QUIET WEATHER. LOCAL MID LEVEL
RIDGING IN THE SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM WILL KEEP ENERGY FAR AWAY
FROM EAST KENTUCKY DURING THIS TIME. AS SUCH...HAVE FOLLOWED A MODEL
BLEND FOR WEATHER DETAILS THROUGH SUNDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CONTINUATION OF PLEASANT CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL RETREAT OFF TO THE EAST
DURING THE DAY ALLOWING FOR MORE SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S IN MOST PLACES. CLEARER
SKIES TONIGHT WILL MAKE FOR A BETTER SETUP LEADING TO RIDGE VERSUS
VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A RETURN OF
SOME MID AND LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
THROUGH THE BULK OF THE DAY WILL HELP SUPPORT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 70S FOR EAST KENTUCKY.

STARTED WITH THE CONSSHORT AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSSHORT GUIDANCE FOR
THE TEMPERATURE...DEWPOINT...AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24
HOURS OF THE FORECAST FOLLOWED BY THE BC/CONSALL THEREAFTER. DID
ADJUST THE TEMPERATURES COLDER IN THE VALLEYS TONIGHT AND ALSO
TWEAKED DEWPOINTS DRIER EACH AFTERNOON. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP IN THE
LOW SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...IN LINE WITH ALL THE
GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BRING DRY WARM CONDITIONS
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WITH THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM...WITH THE ECMWF PERHAPS BEING A BIT
SLOWER THAN THE GFS TO START THINGS OFF. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH YET ANOTHER WARM UP ON
TAP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. THE MODELS ARE A BIT OUT OF SYNC WITH THE LATE WEEK
SYSTEM. BOTH MODELS DEVELOP AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVE THIS SYSTEM EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...OHIO VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS. THE ECWMF IS QUITE
A BIT SLOWER...LESS MOIST AND WEAKER WITH ITS WEATHER SYSTEM THAN
THE GFS. THAT ALL BEING SAID...USED A BLEND BETWEEN THE TWO MODEL
SOLUTIONS FOR THIS TIME FRAME...WITH MAX PRECIPITATION CHANCES OF
ONLY 30 PERCENT DURING SYSTEM PASSAGE. OVERALL...A VERY PLEASANT
WEEK IS ON TAP...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 60S AND 70S EACH
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

DESPITE SOME THICKER HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY
THROUGH MIDDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE. LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 15 KTS OR SO OUT OF THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE WINDS WILL SETTLE AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF








000
FXUS63 KJKL 191651
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1251 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1251 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...WHICH WITH STRONG
SUNSHINE AND GOOD MIXING WILL DROP BELOW LEVELS ORIGINALLY FORECAST.
WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF SLIGHTLY FROM THIS MORNINGS MIX OUT...BUT ARE
STILL NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS AT ONE OR TWO OBSERVATION
STATIONS. OVERALL EXPECT A VERY GRADUAL DECREASE IN WINDS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND THEREFORE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FIRE
WEATHER PROBLEMS. HOWEVER WILL MONITOR CLOSELY AND HAVE ISSUED A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT CONCERNS FOR ENHANCED WILD
FIRES THIS AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1031 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE THIS MORNING...JUST LIKE THE WEEKEND. FEW
MINOR TWEAKS TO GRIDS TO COME IN LINE WITH LATEST HOURLY OBS. DID TRY
TO TIGHTEN UP THE GRADIENT IN THE SKY GRIDS AS SUBSIDENCE ON THE
PERIPHERAL OF SOUTHEAST STORM SYSTEM IS EATING AWAY SOME OF THE
HIGHER CI AND MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. TEMPS
WERE A LITTLE SLOW OUT OF THE GATE FOR SOME OF OUR VALLEY LOCATIONS
BUT AFTERNOON HIGHS LOOK ON TARGET. WILL MAKE FINAL ADJUSTMENTS WITH
NEXT UPDATE...IF NEEDED. INVERSION HAS MIXED OUT...ALLOWING WINDS TO
INCREASE FROM THEIR LIGHTER EARLY MORNING LEVELS. THEREFORE FRESHENED
UP ZONES TO REMOVE LIGHT WIND/AFTERNOON WORDING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE T AND TD GRIDS AS WELL AS THE LOW
TEMPERATURE GRID FOR THIS MORNING. ALSO...ADJUSTED THE SKY COVER
GRIDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS GIVEN THE PIVOT AND RESURGENCE OF
THE HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE SEEN IN THE LATEST SATELLITE LOOP. THESE
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND STRETCHED SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE A LOW PRESSURE
AREA IS SLOWLY PASSING WELL TO THE SOUTH OF EAST KENTUCKY. THIS
SOUTHERN SYSTEM IS KEEPING HIGH CLOUDS...GENERALLY THICKER
SOUTHEAST...OVER THE CWA THIS NIGHT. THIS...COMBINED WITH LIGHT
NORTHEAST SFC WIND FLOW...HAS SLOWED THE DECLINE OF TEMPERATURES FOR
MOST PLACES OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION IS THE MOST SHELTERED VALLEYS IN
THE EAST...AND A FEW IN THE SOUTHWEST LIKE EKQ...WHERE READINGS ARE
IN THE MIDDLE 40S WHILE MID AND UPPER 50S ARE MORE COMMON ELSEWHERE.
DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE RUNNING IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S THROUGH
THE NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA COMPARED TO THE LOW AND MID 40S OVER
THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY REGION.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST DESPITE THE CURRENT UNSTABLE MID LEVEL
PATTERN. KENTUCKY WILL BE SPLIT BY AMPLIFIED FLOW TO THE SOUTH AND
NORTH...FEATURING DEEP AND...IN SOME CASES...CLOSED OFF LOWS. THIS
IS AN UNUSUAL SETUP...BUT WHILE IT HOLDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EAST
KENTUCKY WILL REAP THE BENEFITS OF QUIET WEATHER. LOCAL MID LEVEL
RIDGING IN THE SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM WILL KEEP ENERGY FAR AWAY
FROM EAST KENTUCKY DURING THIS TIME. AS SUCH...HAVE FOLLOWED A MODEL
BLEND FOR WEATHER DETAILS THROUGH SUNDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CONTINUATION OF PLEASANT CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL RETREAT OFF TO THE EAST
DURING THE DAY ALLOWING FOR MORE SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S IN MOST PLACES. CLEARER
SKIES TONIGHT WILL MAKE FOR A BETTER SETUP LEADING TO RIDGE VERSUS
VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A RETURN OF
SOME MID AND LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
THROUGH THE BULK OF THE DAY WILL HELP SUPPORT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 70S FOR EAST KENTUCKY.

STARTED WITH THE CONSSHORT AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSSHORT GUIDANCE FOR
THE TEMPERATURE...DEWPOINT...AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24
HOURS OF THE FORECAST FOLLOWED BY THE BC/CONSALL THEREAFTER. DID
ADJUST THE TEMPERATURES COLDER IN THE VALLEYS TONIGHT AND ALSO
TWEAKED DEWPOINTS DRIER EACH AFTERNOON. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP IN THE
LOW SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...IN LINE WITH ALL THE
GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BRING DRY WARM CONDITIONS
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WITH THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM...WITH THE ECMWF PERHAPS BEING A BIT
SLOWER THAN THE GFS TO START THINGS OFF. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH YET ANOTHER WARM UP ON
TAP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. THE MODELS ARE A BIT OUT OF SYNC WITH THE LATE WEEK
SYSTEM. BOTH MODELS DEVELOP AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVE THIS SYSTEM EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...OHIO VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS. THE ECWMF IS QUITE
A BIT SLOWER...LESS MOIST AND WEAKER WITH ITS WEATHER SYSTEM THAN
THE GFS. THAT ALL BEING SAID...USED A BLEND BETWEEN THE TWO MODEL
SOLUTIONS FOR THIS TIME FRAME...WITH MAX PRECIPITATION CHANCES OF
ONLY 30 PERCENT DURING SYSTEM PASSAGE. OVERALL...A VERY PLEASANT
WEEK IS ON TAP...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 60S AND 70S EACH
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

DESPITE SOME THICKER HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY
THROUGH MIDDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE. LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 15 KTS OR SO OUT OF THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE WINDS WILL SETTLE AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF







000
FXUS63 KJKL 191431
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1031 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1031 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE THIS MORNING...JUST LIKE THE WEEKEND. FEW
MINOR TWEAKS TO GRIDS TO COME IN LINE WITH LATEST HOURLY OBS. DID TRY
TO TIGHTEN UP THE GRADIENT IN THE SKY GRIDS AS SUBSIDENCE ON THE
PERIPHERAL OF SOUTHEAST STORM SYSTEM IS EATING AWAY SOME OF THE
HIGHER CI AND MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. TEMPS
WERE A LITTLE SLOW OUT OF THE GATE FOR SOME OF OUR VALLEY LOCATIONS
BUT AFTERNOON HIGHS LOOK ON TARGET. WILL MAKE FINAL ADJUSTMENTS WITH
NEXT UPDATE...IF NEEDED. INVERSION HAS MIXED OUT...ALLOWING WINDS TO
INCREASE FROM THEIR LIGHTER EARLY MORNING LEVELS. THEREFORE FRESHENED
UP ZONES TO REMOVE LIGHT WIND/AFTERNOON WORDING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE T AND TD GRIDS AS WELL AS THE LOW
TEMPERATURE GRID FOR THIS MORNING. ALSO...ADJUSTED THE SKY COVER
GRIDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS GIVEN THE PIVOT AND RESURGENCE OF
THE HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE SEEN IN THE LATEST SATELLITE LOOP. THESE
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND STRETCHED SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE A LOW PRESSURE
AREA IS SLOWLY PASSING WELL TO THE SOUTH OF EAST KENTUCKY. THIS
SOUTHERN SYSTEM IS KEEPING HIGH CLOUDS...GENERALLY THICKER
SOUTHEAST...OVER THE CWA THIS NIGHT. THIS...COMBINED WITH LIGHT
NORTHEAST SFC WIND FLOW...HAS SLOWED THE DECLINE OF TEMPERATURES FOR
MOST PLACES OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION IS THE MOST SHELTERED VALLEYS IN
THE EAST...AND A FEW IN THE SOUTHWEST LIKE EKQ...WHERE READINGS ARE
IN THE MIDDLE 40S WHILE MID AND UPPER 50S ARE MORE COMMON ELSEWHERE.
DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE RUNNING IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S THROUGH
THE NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA COMPARED TO THE LOW AND MID 40S OVER
THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY REGION.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST DESPITE THE CURRENT UNSTABLE MID LEVEL
PATTERN. KENTUCKY WILL BE SPLIT BY AMPLIFIED FLOW TO THE SOUTH AND
NORTH...FEATURING DEEP AND...IN SOME CASES...CLOSED OFF LOWS. THIS
IS AN UNUSUAL SETUP...BUT WHILE IT HOLDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EAST
KENTUCKY WILL REAP THE BENEFITS OF QUIET WEATHER. LOCAL MID LEVEL
RIDGING IN THE SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM WILL KEEP ENERGY FAR AWAY
FROM EAST KENTUCKY DURING THIS TIME. AS SUCH...HAVE FOLLOWED A MODEL
BLEND FOR WEATHER DETAILS THROUGH SUNDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CONTINUATION OF PLEASANT CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL RETREAT OFF TO THE EAST
DURING THE DAY ALLOWING FOR MORE SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S IN MOST PLACES. CLEARER
SKIES TONIGHT WILL MAKE FOR A BETTER SETUP LEADING TO RIDGE VERSUS
VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A RETURN OF
SOME MID AND LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
THROUGH THE BULK OF THE DAY WILL HELP SUPPORT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 70S FOR EAST KENTUCKY.

STARTED WITH THE CONSSHORT AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSSHORT GUIDANCE FOR
THE TEMPERATURE...DEWPOINT...AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24
HOURS OF THE FORECAST FOLLOWED BY THE BC/CONSALL THEREAFTER. DID
ADJUST THE TEMPERATURES COLDER IN THE VALLEYS TONIGHT AND ALSO
TWEAKED DEWPOINTS DRIER EACH AFTERNOON. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP IN THE
LOW SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...IN LINE WITH ALL THE
GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BRING DRY WARM CONDITIONS
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WITH THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM...WITH THE ECMWF PERHAPS BEING A BIT
SLOWER THAN THE GFS TO START THINGS OFF. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH YET ANOTHER WARM UP ON
TAP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. THE MODELS ARE A BIT OUT OF SYNC WITH THE LATE WEEK
SYSTEM. BOTH MODELS DEVELOP AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVE THIS SYSTEM EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...OHIO VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS. THE ECWMF IS QUITE
A BIT SLOWER...LESS MOIST AND WEAKER WITH ITS WEATHER SYSTEM THAN
THE GFS. THAT ALL BEING SAID...USED A BLEND BETWEEN THE TWO MODEL
SOLUTIONS FOR THIS TIME FRAME...WITH MAX PRECIPITATION CHANCES OF
ONLY 30 PERCENT DURING SYSTEM PASSAGE. OVERALL...A VERY PLEASANT
WEEK IS ON TAP...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 60S AND 70S EACH
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

DESPITE SOME THICKER HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY
THROUGH MIDDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE. LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 15 KTS OR SO OUT OF THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE WINDS WILL SETTLE AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF








000
FXUS63 KJKL 191431
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1031 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1031 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE THIS MORNING...JUST LIKE THE WEEKEND. FEW
MINOR TWEAKS TO GRIDS TO COME IN LINE WITH LATEST HOURLY OBS. DID TRY
TO TIGHTEN UP THE GRADIENT IN THE SKY GRIDS AS SUBSIDENCE ON THE
PERIPHERAL OF SOUTHEAST STORM SYSTEM IS EATING AWAY SOME OF THE
HIGHER CI AND MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. TEMPS
WERE A LITTLE SLOW OUT OF THE GATE FOR SOME OF OUR VALLEY LOCATIONS
BUT AFTERNOON HIGHS LOOK ON TARGET. WILL MAKE FINAL ADJUSTMENTS WITH
NEXT UPDATE...IF NEEDED. INVERSION HAS MIXED OUT...ALLOWING WINDS TO
INCREASE FROM THEIR LIGHTER EARLY MORNING LEVELS. THEREFORE FRESHENED
UP ZONES TO REMOVE LIGHT WIND/AFTERNOON WORDING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE T AND TD GRIDS AS WELL AS THE LOW
TEMPERATURE GRID FOR THIS MORNING. ALSO...ADJUSTED THE SKY COVER
GRIDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS GIVEN THE PIVOT AND RESURGENCE OF
THE HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE SEEN IN THE LATEST SATELLITE LOOP. THESE
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND STRETCHED SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE A LOW PRESSURE
AREA IS SLOWLY PASSING WELL TO THE SOUTH OF EAST KENTUCKY. THIS
SOUTHERN SYSTEM IS KEEPING HIGH CLOUDS...GENERALLY THICKER
SOUTHEAST...OVER THE CWA THIS NIGHT. THIS...COMBINED WITH LIGHT
NORTHEAST SFC WIND FLOW...HAS SLOWED THE DECLINE OF TEMPERATURES FOR
MOST PLACES OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION IS THE MOST SHELTERED VALLEYS IN
THE EAST...AND A FEW IN THE SOUTHWEST LIKE EKQ...WHERE READINGS ARE
IN THE MIDDLE 40S WHILE MID AND UPPER 50S ARE MORE COMMON ELSEWHERE.
DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE RUNNING IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S THROUGH
THE NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA COMPARED TO THE LOW AND MID 40S OVER
THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY REGION.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST DESPITE THE CURRENT UNSTABLE MID LEVEL
PATTERN. KENTUCKY WILL BE SPLIT BY AMPLIFIED FLOW TO THE SOUTH AND
NORTH...FEATURING DEEP AND...IN SOME CASES...CLOSED OFF LOWS. THIS
IS AN UNUSUAL SETUP...BUT WHILE IT HOLDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EAST
KENTUCKY WILL REAP THE BENEFITS OF QUIET WEATHER. LOCAL MID LEVEL
RIDGING IN THE SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM WILL KEEP ENERGY FAR AWAY
FROM EAST KENTUCKY DURING THIS TIME. AS SUCH...HAVE FOLLOWED A MODEL
BLEND FOR WEATHER DETAILS THROUGH SUNDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CONTINUATION OF PLEASANT CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL RETREAT OFF TO THE EAST
DURING THE DAY ALLOWING FOR MORE SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S IN MOST PLACES. CLEARER
SKIES TONIGHT WILL MAKE FOR A BETTER SETUP LEADING TO RIDGE VERSUS
VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A RETURN OF
SOME MID AND LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
THROUGH THE BULK OF THE DAY WILL HELP SUPPORT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 70S FOR EAST KENTUCKY.

STARTED WITH THE CONSSHORT AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSSHORT GUIDANCE FOR
THE TEMPERATURE...DEWPOINT...AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24
HOURS OF THE FORECAST FOLLOWED BY THE BC/CONSALL THEREAFTER. DID
ADJUST THE TEMPERATURES COLDER IN THE VALLEYS TONIGHT AND ALSO
TWEAKED DEWPOINTS DRIER EACH AFTERNOON. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP IN THE
LOW SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...IN LINE WITH ALL THE
GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BRING DRY WARM CONDITIONS
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WITH THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM...WITH THE ECMWF PERHAPS BEING A BIT
SLOWER THAN THE GFS TO START THINGS OFF. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH YET ANOTHER WARM UP ON
TAP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. THE MODELS ARE A BIT OUT OF SYNC WITH THE LATE WEEK
SYSTEM. BOTH MODELS DEVELOP AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVE THIS SYSTEM EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...OHIO VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS. THE ECWMF IS QUITE
A BIT SLOWER...LESS MOIST AND WEAKER WITH ITS WEATHER SYSTEM THAN
THE GFS. THAT ALL BEING SAID...USED A BLEND BETWEEN THE TWO MODEL
SOLUTIONS FOR THIS TIME FRAME...WITH MAX PRECIPITATION CHANCES OF
ONLY 30 PERCENT DURING SYSTEM PASSAGE. OVERALL...A VERY PLEASANT
WEEK IS ON TAP...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 60S AND 70S EACH
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

DESPITE SOME THICKER HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY
THROUGH MIDDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE. LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 15 KTS OR SO OUT OF THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE WINDS WILL SETTLE AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF









000
FXUS63 KJKL 191150 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
750 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE T AND TD GRIDS AS WELL AS THE LOW
TEMPERATURE GRID FOR THIS MORNING. ALSO...ADJUSTED THE SKY COVER
GRIDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS GIVEN THE PIVOT AND RESURGENCE OF
THE HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE SEEN IN THE LATEST SATELLITE LOOP. THESE
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND STRETCHED SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE A LOW PRESSURE
AREA IS SLOWLY PASSING WELL TO THE SOUTH OF EAST KENTUCKY. THIS
SOUTHERN SYSTEM IS KEEPING HIGH CLOUDS...GENERALLY THICKER
SOUTHEAST...OVER THE CWA THIS NIGHT. THIS...COMBINED WITH LIGHT
NORTHEAST SFC WIND FLOW...HAS SLOWED THE DECLINE OF TEMPERATURES FOR
MOST PLACES OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION IS THE MOST SHELTERED VALLEYS IN
THE EAST...AND A FEW IN THE SOUTHWEST LIKE EKQ...WHERE READINGS ARE
IN THE MIDDLE 40S WHILE MID AND UPPER 50S ARE MORE COMMON ELSEWHERE.
DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE RUNNING IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S THROUGH
THE NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA COMPARED TO THE LOW AND MID 40S OVER
THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY REGION.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST DESPITE THE CURRENT UNSTABLE MID LEVEL
PATTERN. KENTUCKY WILL BE SPLIT BY AMPLIFIED FLOW TO THE SOUTH AND
NORTH...FEATURING DEEP AND...IN SOME CASES...CLOSED OFF LOWS. THIS
IS AN UNUSUAL SETUP...BUT WHILE IT HOLDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EAST
KENTUCKY WILL REAP THE BENEFITS OF QUIET WEATHER. LOCAL MID LEVEL
RIDGING IN THE SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM WILL KEEP ENERGY FAR AWAY
FROM EAST KENTUCKY DURING THIS TIME. AS SUCH...HAVE FOLLOWED A MODEL
BLEND FOR WEATHER DETAILS THROUGH SUNDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CONTINUATION OF PLEASANT CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL RETREAT OFF TO THE EAST
DURING THE DAY ALLOWING FOR MORE SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S IN MOST PLACES. CLEARER
SKIES TONIGHT WILL MAKE FOR A BETTER SETUP LEADING TO RIDGE VERSUS
VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A RETURN OF
SOME MID AND LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
THROUGH THE BULK OF THE DAY WILL HELP SUPPORT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 70S FOR EAST KENTUCKY.

STARTED WITH THE CONSSHORT AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSSHORT GUIDANCE FOR
THE TEMPERATURE...DEWPOINT...AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24
HOURS OF THE FORECAST FOLLOWED BY THE BC/CONSALL THEREAFTER. DID
ADJUST THE TEMPERATURES COLDER IN THE VALLEYS TONIGHT AND ALSO
TWEAKED DEWPOINTS DRIER EACH AFTERNOON. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP IN THE
LOW SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...IN LINE WITH ALL THE
GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BRING DRY WARM CONDITIONS
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WITH THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM...WITH THE ECMWF PERHAPS BEING A BIT
SLOWER THAN THE GFS TO START THINGS OFF. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH YET ANOTHER WARM UP ON
TAP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. THE MODELS ARE A BIT OUT OF SYNC WITH THE LATE WEEK
SYSTEM. BOTH MODELS DEVELOP AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVE THIS SYSTEM EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...OHIO VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS. THE ECWMF IS QUITE
A BIT SLOWER...LESS MOIST AND WEAKER WITH ITS WEATHER SYSTEM THAN
THE GFS. THAT ALL BEING SAID...USED A BLEND BETWEEN THE TWO MODEL
SOLUTIONS FOR THIS TIME FRAME...WITH MAX PRECIPITATION CHANCES OF
ONLY 30 PERCENT DURING SYSTEM PASSAGE. OVERALL...A VERY PLEASANT
WEEK IS ON TAP...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 60S AND 70S EACH
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

DESPITE SOME THICKER HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY
THROUGH MIDDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE. LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 15 KTS OR SO OUT OF THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE WINDS WILL SETTLE AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF







000
FXUS63 KJKL 191150 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
750 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE T AND TD GRIDS AS WELL AS THE LOW
TEMPERATURE GRID FOR THIS MORNING. ALSO...ADJUSTED THE SKY COVER
GRIDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS GIVEN THE PIVOT AND RESURGENCE OF
THE HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE SEEN IN THE LATEST SATELLITE LOOP. THESE
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND STRETCHED SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE A LOW PRESSURE
AREA IS SLOWLY PASSING WELL TO THE SOUTH OF EAST KENTUCKY. THIS
SOUTHERN SYSTEM IS KEEPING HIGH CLOUDS...GENERALLY THICKER
SOUTHEAST...OVER THE CWA THIS NIGHT. THIS...COMBINED WITH LIGHT
NORTHEAST SFC WIND FLOW...HAS SLOWED THE DECLINE OF TEMPERATURES FOR
MOST PLACES OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION IS THE MOST SHELTERED VALLEYS IN
THE EAST...AND A FEW IN THE SOUTHWEST LIKE EKQ...WHERE READINGS ARE
IN THE MIDDLE 40S WHILE MID AND UPPER 50S ARE MORE COMMON ELSEWHERE.
DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE RUNNING IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S THROUGH
THE NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA COMPARED TO THE LOW AND MID 40S OVER
THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY REGION.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST DESPITE THE CURRENT UNSTABLE MID LEVEL
PATTERN. KENTUCKY WILL BE SPLIT BY AMPLIFIED FLOW TO THE SOUTH AND
NORTH...FEATURING DEEP AND...IN SOME CASES...CLOSED OFF LOWS. THIS
IS AN UNUSUAL SETUP...BUT WHILE IT HOLDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EAST
KENTUCKY WILL REAP THE BENEFITS OF QUIET WEATHER. LOCAL MID LEVEL
RIDGING IN THE SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM WILL KEEP ENERGY FAR AWAY
FROM EAST KENTUCKY DURING THIS TIME. AS SUCH...HAVE FOLLOWED A MODEL
BLEND FOR WEATHER DETAILS THROUGH SUNDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CONTINUATION OF PLEASANT CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL RETREAT OFF TO THE EAST
DURING THE DAY ALLOWING FOR MORE SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S IN MOST PLACES. CLEARER
SKIES TONIGHT WILL MAKE FOR A BETTER SETUP LEADING TO RIDGE VERSUS
VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A RETURN OF
SOME MID AND LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
THROUGH THE BULK OF THE DAY WILL HELP SUPPORT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 70S FOR EAST KENTUCKY.

STARTED WITH THE CONSSHORT AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSSHORT GUIDANCE FOR
THE TEMPERATURE...DEWPOINT...AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24
HOURS OF THE FORECAST FOLLOWED BY THE BC/CONSALL THEREAFTER. DID
ADJUST THE TEMPERATURES COLDER IN THE VALLEYS TONIGHT AND ALSO
TWEAKED DEWPOINTS DRIER EACH AFTERNOON. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP IN THE
LOW SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...IN LINE WITH ALL THE
GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BRING DRY WARM CONDITIONS
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WITH THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM...WITH THE ECMWF PERHAPS BEING A BIT
SLOWER THAN THE GFS TO START THINGS OFF. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH YET ANOTHER WARM UP ON
TAP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. THE MODELS ARE A BIT OUT OF SYNC WITH THE LATE WEEK
SYSTEM. BOTH MODELS DEVELOP AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVE THIS SYSTEM EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...OHIO VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS. THE ECWMF IS QUITE
A BIT SLOWER...LESS MOIST AND WEAKER WITH ITS WEATHER SYSTEM THAN
THE GFS. THAT ALL BEING SAID...USED A BLEND BETWEEN THE TWO MODEL
SOLUTIONS FOR THIS TIME FRAME...WITH MAX PRECIPITATION CHANCES OF
ONLY 30 PERCENT DURING SYSTEM PASSAGE. OVERALL...A VERY PLEASANT
WEEK IS ON TAP...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 60S AND 70S EACH
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

DESPITE SOME THICKER HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY
THROUGH MIDDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE. LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 15 KTS OR SO OUT OF THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE WINDS WILL SETTLE AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF








000
FXUS63 KJKL 190730 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
330 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND STRETCHED SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE A LOW PRESSURE
AREA IS SLOWLY PASSING WELL TO THE SOUTH OF EAST KENTUCKY. THIS
SOUTHERN SYSTEM IS KEEPING HIGH CLOUDS...GENERALLY THICKER
SOUTHEAST...OVER THE CWA THIS NIGHT. THIS...COMBINED WITH LIGHT
NORTHEAST SFC WIND FLOW...HAS SLOWED THE DECLINE OF TEMPERATURES FOR
MOST PLACES OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION IS THE MOST SHELTERED VALLEYS IN
THE EAST...AND A FEW IN THE SOUTHWEST LIKE EKQ...WHERE READINGS ARE
IN THE MIDDLE 40S WHILE MID AND UPPER 50S ARE MORE COMMON ELSEWHERE.
DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE RUNNING IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S THROUGH
THE NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA COMPARED TO THE LOW AND MID 40S OVER
THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY REGION.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST DESPITE THE CURRENT UNSTABLE MID LEVEL
PATTERN. KENTUCKY WILL BE SPLIT BY AMPLIFIED FLOW TO THE SOUTH AND
NORTH...FEATURING DEEP AND...IN SOME CASES...CLOSED OFF LOWS. THIS
IS AN UNUSUAL SETUP...BUT WHILE IT HOLDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EAST
KENTUCKY WILL REAP THE BENEFITS OF QUIET WEATHER. LOCAL MID LEVEL
RIDGING IN THE SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM WILL KEEP ENERGY FAR AWAY
FROM EAST KENTUCKY DURING THIS TIME. AS SUCH...HAVE FOLLOWED A MODEL
BLEND FOR WEATHER DETAILS THROUGH SUNDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CONTINUATION OF PLEASANT CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL RETREAT OFF TO THE EAST
DURING THE DAY ALLOWING FOR MORE SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S IN MOST PLACES. CLEARER
SKIES TONIGHT WILL MAKE FOR A BETTER SETUP LEADING TO RIDGE VERSUS
VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A RETURN OF
SOME MID AND LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
THROUGH THE BULK OF THE DAY WILL HELP SUPPORT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 70S FOR EAST KENTUCKY.

STARTED WITH THE CONSSHORT AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSSHORT GUIDANCE FOR
THE TEMPERATURE...DEWPOINT...AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24
HOURS OF THE FORECAST FOLLOWED BY THE BC/CONSALL THEREAFTER. DID
ADJUST THE TEMPERATURES COLDER IN THE VALLEYS TONIGHT AND ALSO
TWEAKED DEWPOINTS DRIER EACH AFTERNOON. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP IN THE
LOW SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...IN LINE WITH ALL THE
GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BRING DRY WARM CONDITIONS
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WITH THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM...WITH THE ECMWF PERHAPS BEING A BIT
SLOWER THAN THE GFS TO START THINGS OFF. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH YET ANOTHER WARM UP ON
TAP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. THE MODELS ARE A BIT OUT OF SYNC WITH THE LATE WEEK
SYSTEM. BOTH MODELS DEVELOP AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVE THIS SYSTEM EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...OHIO VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS. THE ECWMF IS QUITE
A BIT SLOWER...LESS MOIST AND WEAKER WITH ITS WEATHER SYSTEM THAN
THE GFS. THAT ALL BEING SAID...USED A BLEND BETWEEN THE TWO MODEL
SOLUTIONS FOR THIS TIME FRAME...WITH MAX PRECIPITATION CHANCES OF
ONLY 30 PERCENT DURING SYSTEM PASSAGE. OVERALL...A VERY PLEASANT
WEEK IS ON TAP...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 60S AND 70S EACH
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

BESIDES SOME THICKER HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH DAWN...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
PICK UP DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15 OR SO KTS
POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF








000
FXUS63 KJKL 190730 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
330 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND STRETCHED SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE A LOW PRESSURE
AREA IS SLOWLY PASSING WELL TO THE SOUTH OF EAST KENTUCKY. THIS
SOUTHERN SYSTEM IS KEEPING HIGH CLOUDS...GENERALLY THICKER
SOUTHEAST...OVER THE CWA THIS NIGHT. THIS...COMBINED WITH LIGHT
NORTHEAST SFC WIND FLOW...HAS SLOWED THE DECLINE OF TEMPERATURES FOR
MOST PLACES OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION IS THE MOST SHELTERED VALLEYS IN
THE EAST...AND A FEW IN THE SOUTHWEST LIKE EKQ...WHERE READINGS ARE
IN THE MIDDLE 40S WHILE MID AND UPPER 50S ARE MORE COMMON ELSEWHERE.
DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE RUNNING IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S THROUGH
THE NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA COMPARED TO THE LOW AND MID 40S OVER
THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY REGION.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST DESPITE THE CURRENT UNSTABLE MID LEVEL
PATTERN. KENTUCKY WILL BE SPLIT BY AMPLIFIED FLOW TO THE SOUTH AND
NORTH...FEATURING DEEP AND...IN SOME CASES...CLOSED OFF LOWS. THIS
IS AN UNUSUAL SETUP...BUT WHILE IT HOLDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EAST
KENTUCKY WILL REAP THE BENEFITS OF QUIET WEATHER. LOCAL MID LEVEL
RIDGING IN THE SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM WILL KEEP ENERGY FAR AWAY
FROM EAST KENTUCKY DURING THIS TIME. AS SUCH...HAVE FOLLOWED A MODEL
BLEND FOR WEATHER DETAILS THROUGH SUNDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CONTINUATION OF PLEASANT CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL RETREAT OFF TO THE EAST
DURING THE DAY ALLOWING FOR MORE SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S IN MOST PLACES. CLEARER
SKIES TONIGHT WILL MAKE FOR A BETTER SETUP LEADING TO RIDGE VERSUS
VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A RETURN OF
SOME MID AND LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
THROUGH THE BULK OF THE DAY WILL HELP SUPPORT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 70S FOR EAST KENTUCKY.

STARTED WITH THE CONSSHORT AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSSHORT GUIDANCE FOR
THE TEMPERATURE...DEWPOINT...AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24
HOURS OF THE FORECAST FOLLOWED BY THE BC/CONSALL THEREAFTER. DID
ADJUST THE TEMPERATURES COLDER IN THE VALLEYS TONIGHT AND ALSO
TWEAKED DEWPOINTS DRIER EACH AFTERNOON. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP IN THE
LOW SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...IN LINE WITH ALL THE
GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BRING DRY WARM CONDITIONS
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WITH THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM...WITH THE ECMWF PERHAPS BEING A BIT
SLOWER THAN THE GFS TO START THINGS OFF. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH YET ANOTHER WARM UP ON
TAP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. THE MODELS ARE A BIT OUT OF SYNC WITH THE LATE WEEK
SYSTEM. BOTH MODELS DEVELOP AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVE THIS SYSTEM EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...OHIO VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS. THE ECWMF IS QUITE
A BIT SLOWER...LESS MOIST AND WEAKER WITH ITS WEATHER SYSTEM THAN
THE GFS. THAT ALL BEING SAID...USED A BLEND BETWEEN THE TWO MODEL
SOLUTIONS FOR THIS TIME FRAME...WITH MAX PRECIPITATION CHANCES OF
ONLY 30 PERCENT DURING SYSTEM PASSAGE. OVERALL...A VERY PLEASANT
WEEK IS ON TAP...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 60S AND 70S EACH
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

BESIDES SOME THICKER HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH DAWN...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
PICK UP DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15 OR SO KTS
POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF







000
FXUS63 KJKL 190605 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
205 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

TOUCHED UP THE LOWS AND HOURLY CURVES FOR BOTH THE TEMP AND DEWPOINT
GRIDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. DESPITE THE HIGH CLOUDS OF
VARYING THICKNESS...MANY OF THE EASTERN VALLEYS HAVE DECOUPLED ENOUGH
THAT THEY ARE RUNNING AHEAD OF THE RIDGES AND MORE OPEN AREAS...IN THE
MID 40S VERSUS UPPER 50S...WITH RESPECT TO A DROP OFF IN TEMPS
DURING THESE LATE NIGHT HOURS. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS FOR THIS AND
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO THE SKY COVER GRIDS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE UPDATED AVIATION GRIDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1019 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

DESPITE THICKER CLOUDS HANGING IN THERE ACROSS THE AREA...SOME OF THE
MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS ARE DECOUPLING...CURRENTLY REPORTING IN THE
LOWER 50S...WHILE BROADER VALLEYS AND RIDGETOPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S. WILL INCLUDE A SPLIT IN THE ZONES AND HAVE ADJUSTED
SOME OF THE LOWS IN PLACES BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 749 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

HAVE INCREASED THE CLOUDS A BIT INTO THIS EVENING...AS THE LATEST IR
SATELLITE SHOWS AN OVERALL UPTICK IN THE THICKER CIRRUS.
THIS...COMBINED WITH THE LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE AT THE
SURFACE SHOULD KEEP MOST RIDGES AND VALLEYS WITHIN A 5 DEGREE RANGE
FOR THE LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE DYING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. MOST OF THE ENERGY HAS BEEN WITH THE SYSTEM ON THE SOUTHERN
STREAM MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
TOMORROW AND DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. DUE TO THE
WEAKNESS OF THE FRONT...THERE REALLY WILL NOT BE THAT NOTICEABLE A
DIFFERENCE IN THE AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER
TOMORROW BECAUSE THE CLOUDS WILL HAVE DECREASED. FOR TEMPERATURES...
WENT WITH THE MODEL BLEND AND THEN MADE SOME CHANGES BASED ON
ELEVATION.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BRING DRY WARM CONDITIONS
FOR SUNDAY AND INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE BEING FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WITH THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH A WARM UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY
WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

BESIDES SOME THICKER HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH DAWN...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
PICK UP DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15 OR SO KTS
POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...GREIF






000
FXUS63 KJKL 190605 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
205 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

TOUCHED UP THE LOWS AND HOURLY CURVES FOR BOTH THE TEMP AND DEWPOINT
GRIDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. DESPITE THE HIGH CLOUDS OF
VARYING THICKNESS...MANY OF THE EASTERN VALLEYS HAVE DECOUPLED ENOUGH
THAT THEY ARE RUNNING AHEAD OF THE RIDGES AND MORE OPEN AREAS...IN THE
MID 40S VERSUS UPPER 50S...WITH RESPECT TO A DROP OFF IN TEMPS
DURING THESE LATE NIGHT HOURS. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS FOR THIS AND
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO THE SKY COVER GRIDS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE UPDATED AVIATION GRIDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1019 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

DESPITE THICKER CLOUDS HANGING IN THERE ACROSS THE AREA...SOME OF THE
MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS ARE DECOUPLING...CURRENTLY REPORTING IN THE
LOWER 50S...WHILE BROADER VALLEYS AND RIDGETOPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S. WILL INCLUDE A SPLIT IN THE ZONES AND HAVE ADJUSTED
SOME OF THE LOWS IN PLACES BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 749 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

HAVE INCREASED THE CLOUDS A BIT INTO THIS EVENING...AS THE LATEST IR
SATELLITE SHOWS AN OVERALL UPTICK IN THE THICKER CIRRUS.
THIS...COMBINED WITH THE LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE AT THE
SURFACE SHOULD KEEP MOST RIDGES AND VALLEYS WITHIN A 5 DEGREE RANGE
FOR THE LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE DYING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. MOST OF THE ENERGY HAS BEEN WITH THE SYSTEM ON THE SOUTHERN
STREAM MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
TOMORROW AND DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. DUE TO THE
WEAKNESS OF THE FRONT...THERE REALLY WILL NOT BE THAT NOTICEABLE A
DIFFERENCE IN THE AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER
TOMORROW BECAUSE THE CLOUDS WILL HAVE DECREASED. FOR TEMPERATURES...
WENT WITH THE MODEL BLEND AND THEN MADE SOME CHANGES BASED ON
ELEVATION.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BRING DRY WARM CONDITIONS
FOR SUNDAY AND INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE BEING FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WITH THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH A WARM UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY
WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

BESIDES SOME THICKER HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH DAWN...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
PICK UP DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15 OR SO KTS
POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...GREIF





000
FXUS63 KJKL 190219 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1019 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1019 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

DESPITE THICKER CLOUDS HANGING IN THERE ACROSS THE AREA...SOME OF THE
MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS ARE DECOUPLING...CURRENTLY REPORTING IN THE
LOWER 50S...WHILE BROADER VALLEYS AND RIDGETOPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S. WILL INCLUDE A SPLIT IN THE ZONES AND HAVE ADJUSTED
SOME OF THE LOWS IN PLACES BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 749 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

HAVE INCREASED THE CLOUDS A BIT INTO THIS EVENING...AS THE LATEST IR
SATELLITE SHOWS AN OVERALL UPTICK IN THE THICKER CIRRUS.
THIS...COMBINED WITH THE LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE AT THE
SURFACE SHOULD KEEP MOST RIDGES AND VALLEYS WITHIN A 5 DEGREE RANGE
FOR THE LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE DYING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. MOST OF THE ENERGY HAS BEEN WITH THE SYSTEM ON THE SOUTHERN
STREAM MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
TOMORROW AND DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. DUE TO THE
WEAKNESS OF THE FRONT...THERE REALLY WILL NOT BE THAT NOTICEABLE A
DIFFERENCE IN THE AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER
TOMORROW BECAUSE THE CLOUDS WILL HAVE DECREASED. FOR TEMPERATURES...
WENT WITH THE MODEL BLEND AND THEN MADE SOME CHANGES BASED ON
ELEVATION.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BRING DRY WARM CONDITIONS
FOR SUNDAY AND INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE BEING FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WITH THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH A WARM UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY
WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 749 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

BESIDES SOME THICKER HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH DAWN...VFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN








000
FXUS63 KJKL 190219 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1019 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1019 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

DESPITE THICKER CLOUDS HANGING IN THERE ACROSS THE AREA...SOME OF THE
MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS ARE DECOUPLING...CURRENTLY REPORTING IN THE
LOWER 50S...WHILE BROADER VALLEYS AND RIDGETOPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S. WILL INCLUDE A SPLIT IN THE ZONES AND HAVE ADJUSTED
SOME OF THE LOWS IN PLACES BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 749 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

HAVE INCREASED THE CLOUDS A BIT INTO THIS EVENING...AS THE LATEST IR
SATELLITE SHOWS AN OVERALL UPTICK IN THE THICKER CIRRUS.
THIS...COMBINED WITH THE LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE AT THE
SURFACE SHOULD KEEP MOST RIDGES AND VALLEYS WITHIN A 5 DEGREE RANGE
FOR THE LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE DYING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. MOST OF THE ENERGY HAS BEEN WITH THE SYSTEM ON THE SOUTHERN
STREAM MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
TOMORROW AND DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. DUE TO THE
WEAKNESS OF THE FRONT...THERE REALLY WILL NOT BE THAT NOTICEABLE A
DIFFERENCE IN THE AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER
TOMORROW BECAUSE THE CLOUDS WILL HAVE DECREASED. FOR TEMPERATURES...
WENT WITH THE MODEL BLEND AND THEN MADE SOME CHANGES BASED ON
ELEVATION.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BRING DRY WARM CONDITIONS
FOR SUNDAY AND INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE BEING FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WITH THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH A WARM UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY
WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 749 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

BESIDES SOME THICKER HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH DAWN...VFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN









000
FXUS63 KJKL 182349 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
749 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 749 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

HAVE INCREASED THE CLOUDS A BIT INTO THIS EVENING...AS THE LATEST IR
SATELLITE SHOWS AN OVERALL UPTICK IN THE THICKER CIRRUS.
THIS...COMBINED WITH THE LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE AT THE
SURFACE SHOULD KEEP MOST RIDGES AND VALLEYS WITHIN A 5 DEGREE RANGE
FOR THE LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE DYING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. MOST OF THE ENERGY HAS BEEN WITH THE SYSTEM ON THE SOUTHERN
STREAM MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
TOMORROW AND DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. DUE TO THE
WEAKNESS OF THE FRONT...THERE REALLY WILL NOT BE THAT NOTICEABLE A
DIFFERENCE IN THE AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER
TOMORROW BECAUSE THE CLOUDS WILL HAVE DECREASED. FOR TEMPERATURES...
WENT WITH THE MODEL BLEND AND THEN MADE SOME CHANGES BASED ON
ELEVATION.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BRING DRY WARM CONDITIONS
FOR SUNDAY AND INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE BEING FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WITH THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH A WARM UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY
WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 749 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

BESIDES SOME THICKER HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH DAWN...VFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN









000
FXUS63 KJKL 182349 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
749 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 749 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

HAVE INCREASED THE CLOUDS A BIT INTO THIS EVENING...AS THE LATEST IR
SATELLITE SHOWS AN OVERALL UPTICK IN THE THICKER CIRRUS.
THIS...COMBINED WITH THE LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE AT THE
SURFACE SHOULD KEEP MOST RIDGES AND VALLEYS WITHIN A 5 DEGREE RANGE
FOR THE LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE DYING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. MOST OF THE ENERGY HAS BEEN WITH THE SYSTEM ON THE SOUTHERN
STREAM MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
TOMORROW AND DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. DUE TO THE
WEAKNESS OF THE FRONT...THERE REALLY WILL NOT BE THAT NOTICEABLE A
DIFFERENCE IN THE AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER
TOMORROW BECAUSE THE CLOUDS WILL HAVE DECREASED. FOR TEMPERATURES...
WENT WITH THE MODEL BLEND AND THEN MADE SOME CHANGES BASED ON
ELEVATION.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BRING DRY WARM CONDITIONS
FOR SUNDAY AND INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE BEING FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WITH THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH A WARM UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY
WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 749 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

BESIDES SOME THICKER HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH DAWN...VFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN








000
FXUS63 KJKL 181836
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
236 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE DYING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. MOST OF THE ENERGY HAS BEEN WITH THE SYSTEM ON THE SOUTHERN
STREAM MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
TOMORROW AND DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. DUE TO THE
WEAKNESS OF THE FRONT...THERE REALLY WILL NOT BE THAT NOTICEABLE A
DIFFERENCE IN THE AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER
TOMORROW BECAUSE THE CLOUDS WILL HAVE DECREASED. FOR TEMPERATURES...
WENT WITH THE MODEL BLEND AND THEN MADE SOME CHANGES BASED ON
ELEVATION.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BRING DRY WARM CONDITIONS
FOR SUNDAY AND INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE BEING FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WITH THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH A WARM UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY
WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014


VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...JJ








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