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000
FXUS63 KJKL 221137
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
637 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

DESPITE THE UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS...A FEW SPRINKLES HAVE
DEVELOPED FROM BREATHITT COUNTY NORTHEAST INTO JOHNSON COUNTY. JOHNSON
COUNTY MESONET IS STILL AT 31 DEGREES...BUT PRECIPITATION IS PROBABLY
NOT HEAVY ENOUGH (AS OBSERVED HERE AT THE OFFICE) TO CAUSE MUCH OF AN
ISSUE AND ALL OF THIS SHOULD BE A VERY SHORT TERM ISSUE AS THIS WILL
ALL BE PUSHING OUT IN THE NEXT HOUR. ALSO...THE MESONET HAS BEEN
COMING UP AS THE CLOUDS SPREAD BACK IN. UPDATED TO THROW IN SOME
SPRINKLES FOR THE AFFECTED AREAS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

EASTERN KENTUCKY SITS BETWEEN TWO SYSTEM EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE
FIRST SYSTEM PUSHING NORTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...WHILE THE SECOND
ONE DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE...COMBINED WITH LOWER LEVEL DOWNSLOPING SOUTHEAST FLOW HAS
KEPT EASTERN KENTUCKY DRY OVERNIGHT. THE SYSTEM OVER THE CAROLINAS
WILL SPREAD ATTEMPT TO SPREAD SOME MOISTURE BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AS
IT MOVES NORTH THIS MORNING...BUT GIVEN THE HOSTILE
ENVIRONMENT...COMBINED WITH LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...ITS ENOUGH
TO WARRANT A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY. WE SHOULD SEE A MIX OF SUN
AND CLOUDS TODAY AS CLOUDS HAVE A TOUGH TIME HANGING ON THROUGH THE
DAY. THIS WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE 50S TODAY. A MID
LEVEL WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. THE BEST FORCING APPEARS WILL STAY
TO OUR WEST AND NORTH TONIGHT. WITH OUR WESTERN COUNTIES ON THE
FRINGES. THUS..WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES
OVERNIGHT. WE MAY SEE A LULL THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY...BUT AS THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCES EAST...ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...LEADING OT INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES BY LATE IN THE DAY. A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY...BUT IF WE CAN STAY DRY ENOUGH THROUGH THE DAY...READINGS
INTO THE 60S SEEM LIKELY...BUT AN EARLIER ONSET TO RAIN OR MORE CLOUD
COVER...COULD LIMIT HOW WARM WE GET. PLAN TO LIMIT RAIN CHANCES ON
TUESDAY IN THE EAST AS SOME WEAK DOWNSLOPING CONTINUES AND COULD HOLD
OFF RAIN UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

THE FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
CHRISTMAS MORNING TIME FRAME. A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
FORM OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS A STREAK IN THE POLAR JET PHASES WITH A SOUTHERN
STREAM JET STREAK OVER THE LOUISIANA MISSISSIPPI REGION. THIS
SOUTHERN STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND
OHIO VALLEY REGIONS AS A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT MAKES
ITS WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION. BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS
LARGE WEATHER SYSTEM...ALONG WITH THE EVOLUTION OF PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...WITH READINGS
IN 50S EXPECTED BOTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL
START OUT AS PERSISTENT MODERATE TO AT TIMES LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
SHOWERS. THIS RAIN WILL LAST THROUGHOUT CHRISTMAS EVE DAY. ONCE THE
UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT INTO EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME
COLDER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE BEHIND THE DEPARTING WEATHER SYSTEM.
AS A RESULT...THE RAIN WILL GRADUALLY MIX WITH SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
SUGGESTING THAT ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH ALOFT WILL BE LACKING...THEREFORE
MAKING FOR ONLY VERY MEAGER AMOUNTS OF SNOW OCCURRING ACROSS THE
AREA. BASED ON THAT...AND THAT FACT THE GROUND WILL BE QUITE
WARM...VERY LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

THE OTHER ISSUE OF NOTE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE WIND. AS THE
UPPER LOW PRESSES EASTWARD AND STRENGTHENS...THE SURFACE WINDS WILL
RESPOND IN KIND ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP
QUITE A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE. THE WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 30
TO 40 MPH FROM TIME TO TIME...PARTICULARLY AS THE UPPER LOW AND ITS
ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE PAST THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON WEDNESDAY AND NIGHT
TIME LOWS IN THE MID 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT...THINGS WILL
RETURN TO NORMAL AS THE COLD AIR SETTLES OVER THE REGION. HIGHS EACH
DAY FROM CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED TO AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THE EXCEPTIONS TO THIS COULD BE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...WHEN ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY COULD WARM INTO THE LOWER 50S AS WINDS SHIFT
TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM. THE PERIOD OF
THE FORECAST...HOWEVER...IS WHERE THINGS GET A BIT OUT OF SORTS. THE
ECMWF MODEL HAS A LARGE...ROBUST...AND VERY MOIST WEATHER SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND...WHILE THE GFS IS
FORECASTING A MUCH WEAKER AN NEARLY PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER
SYSTEM DURING THIS SAME PERIOD OF TIME. FINALLY DECIDED TO INCLUDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE SATURDAY SUNDAY TIME FRAME TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE FACT THAT BOTH MODELS ARE PRODUCING SOME SORT OF
PRECIPITATION FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME
ACCOUNTING FOR THE ENORMOUS DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

CLOUDS WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH SOME PATCHY MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...FOR THE MOST PART VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL. DOWNSLOPING SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN
ERODE ANY MVFR CIGS BY 9 AM WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY. THE CLOUDS MAY DISSIPATE FOR A TIME THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE HIGH/MID CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM. THUS...PLAN TO STICK WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD. SOME QUESTION AS TO IF/WHEN SHOWERS MOVE INTO
EAST KENTUCKY TONIGHT...WITH ANY SHOWERS MOST LIKELY IN OUR SOUTH
CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY. WILL INCLUDE A VCSH IN THE SYM AND
SME TAFS TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...KAS







000
FXUS63 KJKL 221137
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
637 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

DESPITE THE UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS...A FEW SPRINKLES HAVE
DEVELOPED FROM BREATHITT COUNTY NORTHEAST INTO JOHNSON COUNTY. JOHNSON
COUNTY MESONET IS STILL AT 31 DEGREES...BUT PRECIPITATION IS PROBABLY
NOT HEAVY ENOUGH (AS OBSERVED HERE AT THE OFFICE) TO CAUSE MUCH OF AN
ISSUE AND ALL OF THIS SHOULD BE A VERY SHORT TERM ISSUE AS THIS WILL
ALL BE PUSHING OUT IN THE NEXT HOUR. ALSO...THE MESONET HAS BEEN
COMING UP AS THE CLOUDS SPREAD BACK IN. UPDATED TO THROW IN SOME
SPRINKLES FOR THE AFFECTED AREAS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

EASTERN KENTUCKY SITS BETWEEN TWO SYSTEM EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE
FIRST SYSTEM PUSHING NORTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...WHILE THE SECOND
ONE DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE...COMBINED WITH LOWER LEVEL DOWNSLOPING SOUTHEAST FLOW HAS
KEPT EASTERN KENTUCKY DRY OVERNIGHT. THE SYSTEM OVER THE CAROLINAS
WILL SPREAD ATTEMPT TO SPREAD SOME MOISTURE BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AS
IT MOVES NORTH THIS MORNING...BUT GIVEN THE HOSTILE
ENVIRONMENT...COMBINED WITH LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...ITS ENOUGH
TO WARRANT A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY. WE SHOULD SEE A MIX OF SUN
AND CLOUDS TODAY AS CLOUDS HAVE A TOUGH TIME HANGING ON THROUGH THE
DAY. THIS WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE 50S TODAY. A MID
LEVEL WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. THE BEST FORCING APPEARS WILL STAY
TO OUR WEST AND NORTH TONIGHT. WITH OUR WESTERN COUNTIES ON THE
FRINGES. THUS..WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES
OVERNIGHT. WE MAY SEE A LULL THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY...BUT AS THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCES EAST...ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...LEADING OT INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES BY LATE IN THE DAY. A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY...BUT IF WE CAN STAY DRY ENOUGH THROUGH THE DAY...READINGS
INTO THE 60S SEEM LIKELY...BUT AN EARLIER ONSET TO RAIN OR MORE CLOUD
COVER...COULD LIMIT HOW WARM WE GET. PLAN TO LIMIT RAIN CHANCES ON
TUESDAY IN THE EAST AS SOME WEAK DOWNSLOPING CONTINUES AND COULD HOLD
OFF RAIN UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

THE FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
CHRISTMAS MORNING TIME FRAME. A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
FORM OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS A STREAK IN THE POLAR JET PHASES WITH A SOUTHERN
STREAM JET STREAK OVER THE LOUISIANA MISSISSIPPI REGION. THIS
SOUTHERN STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND
OHIO VALLEY REGIONS AS A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT MAKES
ITS WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION. BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS
LARGE WEATHER SYSTEM...ALONG WITH THE EVOLUTION OF PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...WITH READINGS
IN 50S EXPECTED BOTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL
START OUT AS PERSISTENT MODERATE TO AT TIMES LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
SHOWERS. THIS RAIN WILL LAST THROUGHOUT CHRISTMAS EVE DAY. ONCE THE
UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT INTO EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME
COLDER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE BEHIND THE DEPARTING WEATHER SYSTEM.
AS A RESULT...THE RAIN WILL GRADUALLY MIX WITH SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
SUGGESTING THAT ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH ALOFT WILL BE LACKING...THEREFORE
MAKING FOR ONLY VERY MEAGER AMOUNTS OF SNOW OCCURRING ACROSS THE
AREA. BASED ON THAT...AND THAT FACT THE GROUND WILL BE QUITE
WARM...VERY LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

THE OTHER ISSUE OF NOTE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE WIND. AS THE
UPPER LOW PRESSES EASTWARD AND STRENGTHENS...THE SURFACE WINDS WILL
RESPOND IN KIND ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP
QUITE A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE. THE WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 30
TO 40 MPH FROM TIME TO TIME...PARTICULARLY AS THE UPPER LOW AND ITS
ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE PAST THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON WEDNESDAY AND NIGHT
TIME LOWS IN THE MID 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT...THINGS WILL
RETURN TO NORMAL AS THE COLD AIR SETTLES OVER THE REGION. HIGHS EACH
DAY FROM CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED TO AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THE EXCEPTIONS TO THIS COULD BE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...WHEN ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY COULD WARM INTO THE LOWER 50S AS WINDS SHIFT
TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM. THE PERIOD OF
THE FORECAST...HOWEVER...IS WHERE THINGS GET A BIT OUT OF SORTS. THE
ECMWF MODEL HAS A LARGE...ROBUST...AND VERY MOIST WEATHER SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND...WHILE THE GFS IS
FORECASTING A MUCH WEAKER AN NEARLY PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER
SYSTEM DURING THIS SAME PERIOD OF TIME. FINALLY DECIDED TO INCLUDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE SATURDAY SUNDAY TIME FRAME TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE FACT THAT BOTH MODELS ARE PRODUCING SOME SORT OF
PRECIPITATION FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME
ACCOUNTING FOR THE ENORMOUS DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

CLOUDS WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH SOME PATCHY MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...FOR THE MOST PART VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL. DOWNSLOPING SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN
ERODE ANY MVFR CIGS BY 9 AM WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY. THE CLOUDS MAY DISSIPATE FOR A TIME THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE HIGH/MID CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM. THUS...PLAN TO STICK WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD. SOME QUESTION AS TO IF/WHEN SHOWERS MOVE INTO
EAST KENTUCKY TONIGHT...WITH ANY SHOWERS MOST LIKELY IN OUR SOUTH
CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY. WILL INCLUDE A VCSH IN THE SYM AND
SME TAFS TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...KAS








000
FXUS63 KJKL 220815
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
315 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

EASTERN KENTUCKY SITS BETWEEN TWO SYSTEM EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE
FIRST SYSTEM PUSHING NORTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...WHILE THE SECOND
ONE DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE...COMBINED WITH LOWER LEVEL DOWNSLOPING SOUTHEAST FLOW HAS
KEPT EASTERN KENTUCKY DRY OVERNIGHT. THE SYSTEM OVER THE CAROLINAS
WILL SPREAD ATTEMPT TO SPREAD SOME MOISTURE BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AS
IT MOVES NORTH THIS MORNING...BUT GIVEN THE HOSTILE
ENVIRONMENT...COMBINED WITH LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...ITS ENOUGH
TO WARRANT A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY. WE SHOULD SEE A MIX OF SUN
AND CLOUDS TODAY AS CLOUDS HAVE A TOUGH TIME HANGING ON THROUGH THE
DAY. THIS WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE 50S TODAY. A MID
LEVEL WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. THE BEST FORCING APPEARS WILL STAY
TO OUR WEST AND NORTH TONIGHT. WITH OUR WESTERN COUNTIES ON THE
FRINGES. THUS..WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES
OVERNIGHT. WE MAY SEE A LULL THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY...BUT AS THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCES EAST...ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...LEADING OT INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES BY LATE IN THE DAY. A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY...BUT IF WE CAN STAY DRY ENOUGH THROUGH THE DAY...READINGS
INTO THE 60S SEEM LIKELY...BUT AN EARLIER ONSET TO RAIN OR MORE CLOUD
COVER...COULD LIMIT HOW WARM WE GET. PLAN TO LIMIT RAIN CHANCES ON
TUESDAY IN THE EAST AS SOME WEAK DOWNSLOPING CONTINUES AND COULD HOLD
OFF RAIN UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

THE FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
CHRISTMAS MORNING TIME FRAME. A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
FORM OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS A STREAK IN THE POLAR JET PHASES WITH A SOUTHERN
STREAM JET STREAK OVER THE LOUISIANA MISSISSIPPI REGION. THIS
SOUTHERN STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND
OHIO VALLEY REGIONS AS A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT MAKES
ITS WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION. BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS
LARGE WEATHER SYSTEM...ALONG WITH THE EVOLUTION OF PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...WITH READINGS
IN 50S EXPECTED BOTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL
START OUT AS PERSISTENT MODERATE TO AT TIMES LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
SHOWERS. THIS RAIN WILL LAST THROUGHOUT CHRISTMAS EVE DAY. ONCE THE
UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT INTO EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME
COLDER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE BEHIND THE DEPARTING WEATHER SYSTEM.
AS A RESULT...THE RAIN WILL GRADUALLY MIX WITH SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
SUGGESTING THAT ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH ALOFT WILL BE LACKING...THEREFORE
MAKING FOR ONLY VERY MEAGER AMOUNTS OF SNOW OCCURRING ACROSS THE
AREA. BASED ON THAT...AND THAT FACT THE GROUND WILL BE QUITE
WARM...VERY LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

THE OTHER ISSUE OF NOTE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE WIND. AS THE
UPPER LOW PRESSES EASTWARD AND STRENGTHENS...THE SURFACE WINDS WILL
RESPOND IN KIND ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP
QUITE A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE. THE WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 30
TO 40 MPH FROM TIME TO TIME...PARTICULARLY AS THE UPPER LOW AND ITS
ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE PAST THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON WEDNESDAY AND NIGHT
TIME LOWS IN THE MID 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT...THINGS WILL
RETURN TO NORMAL AS THE COLD AIR SETTLES OVER THE REGION. HIGHS EACH
DAY FROM CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED TO AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THE EXCEPTIONS TO THIS COULD BE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...WHEN ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY COULD WARM INTO THE LOWER 50S AS WINDS SHIFT
TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM. THE PERIOD OF
THE FORECAST...HOWEVER...IS WHERE THINGS GET A BIT OUT OF SORTS. THE
ECMWF MODEL HAS A LARGE...ROBUST...AND VERY MOIST WEATHER SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND...WHILE THE GFS IS
FORECASTING A MUCH WEAKER AN NEARLY PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER
SYSTEM DURING THIS SAME PERIOD OF TIME. FINALLY DECIDED TO INCLUDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE SATURDAY SUNDAY TIME FRAME TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE FACT THAT BOTH MODELS ARE PRODUCING SOME SORT OF
PRECIPITATION FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME
ACCOUNTING FOR THE ENORMOUS DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

WHILE INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL BE SEEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR...AS
DOWNSLOPING SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN KEEPS CLOUD HEIGHTS
HIGHER. THE CLOUDS MAY DISSIPATE FOR A TIME TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...BEFORE HIGH/MID CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM. THUS...PLAN TO STICK WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...KAS







000
FXUS63 KJKL 220815
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
315 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

EASTERN KENTUCKY SITS BETWEEN TWO SYSTEM EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE
FIRST SYSTEM PUSHING NORTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...WHILE THE SECOND
ONE DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE...COMBINED WITH LOWER LEVEL DOWNSLOPING SOUTHEAST FLOW HAS
KEPT EASTERN KENTUCKY DRY OVERNIGHT. THE SYSTEM OVER THE CAROLINAS
WILL SPREAD ATTEMPT TO SPREAD SOME MOISTURE BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AS
IT MOVES NORTH THIS MORNING...BUT GIVEN THE HOSTILE
ENVIRONMENT...COMBINED WITH LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...ITS ENOUGH
TO WARRANT A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY. WE SHOULD SEE A MIX OF SUN
AND CLOUDS TODAY AS CLOUDS HAVE A TOUGH TIME HANGING ON THROUGH THE
DAY. THIS WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE 50S TODAY. A MID
LEVEL WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. THE BEST FORCING APPEARS WILL STAY
TO OUR WEST AND NORTH TONIGHT. WITH OUR WESTERN COUNTIES ON THE
FRINGES. THUS..WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES
OVERNIGHT. WE MAY SEE A LULL THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY...BUT AS THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCES EAST...ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...LEADING OT INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES BY LATE IN THE DAY. A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY...BUT IF WE CAN STAY DRY ENOUGH THROUGH THE DAY...READINGS
INTO THE 60S SEEM LIKELY...BUT AN EARLIER ONSET TO RAIN OR MORE CLOUD
COVER...COULD LIMIT HOW WARM WE GET. PLAN TO LIMIT RAIN CHANCES ON
TUESDAY IN THE EAST AS SOME WEAK DOWNSLOPING CONTINUES AND COULD HOLD
OFF RAIN UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

THE FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
CHRISTMAS MORNING TIME FRAME. A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
FORM OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS A STREAK IN THE POLAR JET PHASES WITH A SOUTHERN
STREAM JET STREAK OVER THE LOUISIANA MISSISSIPPI REGION. THIS
SOUTHERN STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND
OHIO VALLEY REGIONS AS A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT MAKES
ITS WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION. BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS
LARGE WEATHER SYSTEM...ALONG WITH THE EVOLUTION OF PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...WITH READINGS
IN 50S EXPECTED BOTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL
START OUT AS PERSISTENT MODERATE TO AT TIMES LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
SHOWERS. THIS RAIN WILL LAST THROUGHOUT CHRISTMAS EVE DAY. ONCE THE
UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT INTO EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME
COLDER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE BEHIND THE DEPARTING WEATHER SYSTEM.
AS A RESULT...THE RAIN WILL GRADUALLY MIX WITH SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
SUGGESTING THAT ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH ALOFT WILL BE LACKING...THEREFORE
MAKING FOR ONLY VERY MEAGER AMOUNTS OF SNOW OCCURRING ACROSS THE
AREA. BASED ON THAT...AND THAT FACT THE GROUND WILL BE QUITE
WARM...VERY LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

THE OTHER ISSUE OF NOTE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE WIND. AS THE
UPPER LOW PRESSES EASTWARD AND STRENGTHENS...THE SURFACE WINDS WILL
RESPOND IN KIND ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP
QUITE A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE. THE WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 30
TO 40 MPH FROM TIME TO TIME...PARTICULARLY AS THE UPPER LOW AND ITS
ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE PAST THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON WEDNESDAY AND NIGHT
TIME LOWS IN THE MID 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT...THINGS WILL
RETURN TO NORMAL AS THE COLD AIR SETTLES OVER THE REGION. HIGHS EACH
DAY FROM CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED TO AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THE EXCEPTIONS TO THIS COULD BE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...WHEN ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY COULD WARM INTO THE LOWER 50S AS WINDS SHIFT
TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM. THE PERIOD OF
THE FORECAST...HOWEVER...IS WHERE THINGS GET A BIT OUT OF SORTS. THE
ECMWF MODEL HAS A LARGE...ROBUST...AND VERY MOIST WEATHER SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND...WHILE THE GFS IS
FORECASTING A MUCH WEAKER AN NEARLY PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER
SYSTEM DURING THIS SAME PERIOD OF TIME. FINALLY DECIDED TO INCLUDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE SATURDAY SUNDAY TIME FRAME TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE FACT THAT BOTH MODELS ARE PRODUCING SOME SORT OF
PRECIPITATION FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME
ACCOUNTING FOR THE ENORMOUS DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

WHILE INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL BE SEEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR...AS
DOWNSLOPING SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN KEEPS CLOUD HEIGHTS
HIGHER. THE CLOUDS MAY DISSIPATE FOR A TIME TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...BEFORE HIGH/MID CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM. THUS...PLAN TO STICK WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...KAS








000
FXUS63 KJKL 220815
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
315 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

EASTERN KENTUCKY SITS BETWEEN TWO SYSTEM EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE
FIRST SYSTEM PUSHING NORTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...WHILE THE SECOND
ONE DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE...COMBINED WITH LOWER LEVEL DOWNSLOPING SOUTHEAST FLOW HAS
KEPT EASTERN KENTUCKY DRY OVERNIGHT. THE SYSTEM OVER THE CAROLINAS
WILL SPREAD ATTEMPT TO SPREAD SOME MOISTURE BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AS
IT MOVES NORTH THIS MORNING...BUT GIVEN THE HOSTILE
ENVIRONMENT...COMBINED WITH LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...ITS ENOUGH
TO WARRANT A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY. WE SHOULD SEE A MIX OF SUN
AND CLOUDS TODAY AS CLOUDS HAVE A TOUGH TIME HANGING ON THROUGH THE
DAY. THIS WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE 50S TODAY. A MID
LEVEL WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. THE BEST FORCING APPEARS WILL STAY
TO OUR WEST AND NORTH TONIGHT. WITH OUR WESTERN COUNTIES ON THE
FRINGES. THUS..WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES
OVERNIGHT. WE MAY SEE A LULL THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY...BUT AS THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCES EAST...ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...LEADING OT INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES BY LATE IN THE DAY. A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY...BUT IF WE CAN STAY DRY ENOUGH THROUGH THE DAY...READINGS
INTO THE 60S SEEM LIKELY...BUT AN EARLIER ONSET TO RAIN OR MORE CLOUD
COVER...COULD LIMIT HOW WARM WE GET. PLAN TO LIMIT RAIN CHANCES ON
TUESDAY IN THE EAST AS SOME WEAK DOWNSLOPING CONTINUES AND COULD HOLD
OFF RAIN UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

THE FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
CHRISTMAS MORNING TIME FRAME. A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
FORM OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS A STREAK IN THE POLAR JET PHASES WITH A SOUTHERN
STREAM JET STREAK OVER THE LOUISIANA MISSISSIPPI REGION. THIS
SOUTHERN STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND
OHIO VALLEY REGIONS AS A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT MAKES
ITS WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION. BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS
LARGE WEATHER SYSTEM...ALONG WITH THE EVOLUTION OF PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...WITH READINGS
IN 50S EXPECTED BOTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL
START OUT AS PERSISTENT MODERATE TO AT TIMES LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
SHOWERS. THIS RAIN WILL LAST THROUGHOUT CHRISTMAS EVE DAY. ONCE THE
UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT INTO EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME
COLDER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE BEHIND THE DEPARTING WEATHER SYSTEM.
AS A RESULT...THE RAIN WILL GRADUALLY MIX WITH SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
SUGGESTING THAT ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH ALOFT WILL BE LACKING...THEREFORE
MAKING FOR ONLY VERY MEAGER AMOUNTS OF SNOW OCCURRING ACROSS THE
AREA. BASED ON THAT...AND THAT FACT THE GROUND WILL BE QUITE
WARM...VERY LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

THE OTHER ISSUE OF NOTE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE WIND. AS THE
UPPER LOW PRESSES EASTWARD AND STRENGTHENS...THE SURFACE WINDS WILL
RESPOND IN KIND ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP
QUITE A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE. THE WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 30
TO 40 MPH FROM TIME TO TIME...PARTICULARLY AS THE UPPER LOW AND ITS
ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE PAST THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON WEDNESDAY AND NIGHT
TIME LOWS IN THE MID 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT...THINGS WILL
RETURN TO NORMAL AS THE COLD AIR SETTLES OVER THE REGION. HIGHS EACH
DAY FROM CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED TO AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THE EXCEPTIONS TO THIS COULD BE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...WHEN ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY COULD WARM INTO THE LOWER 50S AS WINDS SHIFT
TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM. THE PERIOD OF
THE FORECAST...HOWEVER...IS WHERE THINGS GET A BIT OUT OF SORTS. THE
ECMWF MODEL HAS A LARGE...ROBUST...AND VERY MOIST WEATHER SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND...WHILE THE GFS IS
FORECASTING A MUCH WEAKER AN NEARLY PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER
SYSTEM DURING THIS SAME PERIOD OF TIME. FINALLY DECIDED TO INCLUDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE SATURDAY SUNDAY TIME FRAME TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE FACT THAT BOTH MODELS ARE PRODUCING SOME SORT OF
PRECIPITATION FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME
ACCOUNTING FOR THE ENORMOUS DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

WHILE INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL BE SEEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR...AS
DOWNSLOPING SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN KEEPS CLOUD HEIGHTS
HIGHER. THE CLOUDS MAY DISSIPATE FOR A TIME TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...BEFORE HIGH/MID CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM. THUS...PLAN TO STICK WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...KAS







000
FXUS63 KJKL 220537
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1237 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1237 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

THE COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY COMING UP TO FREEZING OR
ABOVE IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE PAINTSVILLE MESONET WHICH HAS
BOTTOMED OUT IN THE MID 20S EARLIER TONIGHT IS NOW AT 31 DEGREES AND
CLIMBING FAST. WILL PLAN ON GOING WITH RISING TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. STILL A FEW AREAS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...MAINLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...BUT THIS SHOULD FILL
IN OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS. DOWNSLOPING CLEARLY EVIDENT IN THE LOW
LEVELS AS CIG HEIGHTS REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 4KFT AND HAVE ACTUALLY
TRENDED UPWARDS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. WITH IMPRESSIVE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS ONLY STEEPENING AS THE NIGHT GOES ON...GOING TO PULL OUT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS TOO MUCH IS GOING AGAINST ANY RAIN SHOWERS.
WILL STICK WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...BUT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED
TO SEE A FEW HOLES DEVELOP FROM TIME TO TIME GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE
FLOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1025 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO SWITCH AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST ALREADY THIS
EVENING AND WARMER TEMPS ARE BEGINNING TO BE DISPLAYED AT MAINLY
RIDGE LOCATIONS. SOME VALLEYS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME WINDS THIS
EVENING AND AS SUCH HAVE BEEN WARMER AS WELL. THE DEEP VALLEYS IN THE
WEST MAY HAVE ALREADY REACH THEIR LOW TEMP FOR THE NIGHT AS TEMPS
WILL START TO WARM TOWARDS DAWN. ADJUSTED FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SPRINKLES AS WELL. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK BUT DID
ISSUE A NEW ZFP MAINLY FOR SPRINKLES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 718 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

DESPITE SOME HOURLY TEMPS BEING SLIGHTLY OFF THIS EVENING HEADING
INTO TONIGHT...THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR PRECIP MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH BUT MODELS ARE
CONTINUING TO KEEP MUCH OF THE AREA DRY...ESPECIALLY WITH DOWN SLOPE
FLOW THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST INTO THE DAWN
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

THE CURRENT SURFACE MAP FEATURES RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY...WITH DEEPER LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS
NORTHERN MONTANA. A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ALSO ALIGNED ALONG
THE GULF OF MEXICO. ALOFT...DEEPER TROUGHING IS TAKING SHAPE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH MODEST RIDGING OCCURRING IN THE EASTERN
CONUS. A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY HAS BEEN ON TAP FOR MOST OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY THANKS TO THIS RIDGING. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S NORTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR...TO THE
UPPER 40S AND EVEN A FEW 50 DEGREE READINGS IN PORTIONS OF THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO SWING
EAST NORTHEAST...REACHING THE CAROLINA COAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WAVE WILL PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...BRINGING THE THREAT OF SPRINKLES AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO
EASTERN KENTUCKY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY WITH EARLY
CLEARING. EXPECT THAT SOME OF THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS IN THE
NORTHEAST WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S AT LEAST...BEFORE
MODIFYING TOWARDS DAWN AS THICKER CLOUD COVER MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTH.

ONCE THE INFLUENCE FROM THE WAVE MOVES OUT BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...
CLOUD COVER WILL THIN OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND DRY WEATHER CAN
BE EXPECTED AS SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ENGAGE OUT AHEAD OF AN
EVOLVING DYNAMIC SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BE NEARING FROM THE WEST...WITH
SOME SHOWERS THREATENING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA TOWARDS
DAWN TUESDAY MORNING. LOWS WILL BE MILD...MAINLY IN THE
40S...ALTHOUGH A FEW UPPER 30 DEGREE READINGS MAY BE ACHIEVABLE EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

PERIOD BEGINS WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL US. A ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE PARKED ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST AS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEING APPROACHING THE REGION TUESDAY. THEREFORE
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG AND EVENTUALLY ENERGY WILL
GET TRANSFERRED SOUTH AS LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE TN/OH VALLEYS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. KEEP IN MIND THERE
CONTINUES TO SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING/DEPTH/LOCATION OF THIS SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
GULF. ONE NOTICEABLE ASPECT OF THIS IN TERMS OF THE MODELS HAS BEEN
THE CONTINUAL GENERAL WARMING TREND OF THIS SYSTEM...THEREFORE THIS
WILL LEAD IMPLICATIONS ON THE CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW.
GENERALLY WAS USED HERE ONLY BECAUSE MODELS HAVE BEEN BACK AND FORTH
ON HOW QUICKLY COOLER AIR FILTERS IN WITH LATEST 12Z GFS SLIGHTLY
COOLER. GIVEN THE LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER SOLUTIONS THINKING CONTINUES
TO BE LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...HOWEVER CHANGE OVER WILL EVENTUALLY OCCUR OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY. OTHER ISSUES AGAINST MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM IS WE GET DRY SLOTTED GIVING WAY TO
LITTLE IF ANY DENDRITIC GROWTH AND WINDS STAY MORE SOUTHWESTERLY NOT
ALLOWING FOR ANY UPSLOPE COMPONENT. ISSUE TWO AND POSSIBLY MORE
CONCERNING WITH RESPECT TO THIS STRONG SYSTEM WILL BE BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO GUST 30 TO 40 ACROSS THE REGION AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CROSSES.

OTHERWISE THE SURFACE LOW WILL QUICKLY PROGRESS NE AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES TO WRAP UP AND NEGATIVELY TILT. POPS WILL ALSO DROP
OFF AS WE MOVE INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCES RAIN/SNOW
ACROSS FAR NE CWA WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. SOME CLEARING CAN BE EXPECTED AS WE MOVE THROUGH CHRISTMAS
DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
AND RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY BUILD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
LATE AND HIGHS MAKING IT BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. WHILE
THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING
SLIGHT TO CHANCES RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY BASED ON THE BLEND AT THIS POINT. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO HAVE
LITTLE MOISTURE TO PLAY WITH. THE MODELS DIVERGE QUITE A BIT AS WE
MOVE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE 12Z GFS QUICKLY MOVES HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE SE US...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF DEVELOPS A LOW
PRESSURE THAT RIDES ALONG THE SE COASTAL STATES BRINGING SOME POPS
ACROSS MAINLY SE KY INTO SUNDAY. SOME OF THIS COULD BE IN THE FORM OF
A RAIN/SNOW MIX INTO SUNDAY NIGHT INTO PORTIONS OF SUNDAY. HAVE OPTED
TO STICK WITH BLEND AT THIS POINT WHICH ONLY KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE AT
THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

WHILE INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL BE SEEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR...AS
DOWNSLOPING SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN KEEPS CLOUD HEIGHTS
HIGHER. THE CLOUDS MAY DISSIPATE FOR A TIME TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...BEFORE HIGH/MID CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM. THUS...PLAN TO STICK WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...KAS







000
FXUS63 KJKL 220537
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1237 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1237 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

THE COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY COMING UP TO FREEZING OR
ABOVE IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE PAINTSVILLE MESONET WHICH HAS
BOTTOMED OUT IN THE MID 20S EARLIER TONIGHT IS NOW AT 31 DEGREES AND
CLIMBING FAST. WILL PLAN ON GOING WITH RISING TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. STILL A FEW AREAS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...MAINLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...BUT THIS SHOULD FILL
IN OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS. DOWNSLOPING CLEARLY EVIDENT IN THE LOW
LEVELS AS CIG HEIGHTS REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 4KFT AND HAVE ACTUALLY
TRENDED UPWARDS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. WITH IMPRESSIVE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS ONLY STEEPENING AS THE NIGHT GOES ON...GOING TO PULL OUT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS TOO MUCH IS GOING AGAINST ANY RAIN SHOWERS.
WILL STICK WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...BUT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED
TO SEE A FEW HOLES DEVELOP FROM TIME TO TIME GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE
FLOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1025 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO SWITCH AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST ALREADY THIS
EVENING AND WARMER TEMPS ARE BEGINNING TO BE DISPLAYED AT MAINLY
RIDGE LOCATIONS. SOME VALLEYS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME WINDS THIS
EVENING AND AS SUCH HAVE BEEN WARMER AS WELL. THE DEEP VALLEYS IN THE
WEST MAY HAVE ALREADY REACH THEIR LOW TEMP FOR THE NIGHT AS TEMPS
WILL START TO WARM TOWARDS DAWN. ADJUSTED FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SPRINKLES AS WELL. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK BUT DID
ISSUE A NEW ZFP MAINLY FOR SPRINKLES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 718 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

DESPITE SOME HOURLY TEMPS BEING SLIGHTLY OFF THIS EVENING HEADING
INTO TONIGHT...THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR PRECIP MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH BUT MODELS ARE
CONTINUING TO KEEP MUCH OF THE AREA DRY...ESPECIALLY WITH DOWN SLOPE
FLOW THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST INTO THE DAWN
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

THE CURRENT SURFACE MAP FEATURES RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY...WITH DEEPER LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS
NORTHERN MONTANA. A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ALSO ALIGNED ALONG
THE GULF OF MEXICO. ALOFT...DEEPER TROUGHING IS TAKING SHAPE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH MODEST RIDGING OCCURRING IN THE EASTERN
CONUS. A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY HAS BEEN ON TAP FOR MOST OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY THANKS TO THIS RIDGING. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S NORTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR...TO THE
UPPER 40S AND EVEN A FEW 50 DEGREE READINGS IN PORTIONS OF THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO SWING
EAST NORTHEAST...REACHING THE CAROLINA COAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WAVE WILL PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...BRINGING THE THREAT OF SPRINKLES AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO
EASTERN KENTUCKY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY WITH EARLY
CLEARING. EXPECT THAT SOME OF THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS IN THE
NORTHEAST WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S AT LEAST...BEFORE
MODIFYING TOWARDS DAWN AS THICKER CLOUD COVER MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTH.

ONCE THE INFLUENCE FROM THE WAVE MOVES OUT BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...
CLOUD COVER WILL THIN OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND DRY WEATHER CAN
BE EXPECTED AS SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ENGAGE OUT AHEAD OF AN
EVOLVING DYNAMIC SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BE NEARING FROM THE WEST...WITH
SOME SHOWERS THREATENING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA TOWARDS
DAWN TUESDAY MORNING. LOWS WILL BE MILD...MAINLY IN THE
40S...ALTHOUGH A FEW UPPER 30 DEGREE READINGS MAY BE ACHIEVABLE EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

PERIOD BEGINS WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL US. A ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE PARKED ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST AS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEING APPROACHING THE REGION TUESDAY. THEREFORE
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG AND EVENTUALLY ENERGY WILL
GET TRANSFERRED SOUTH AS LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE TN/OH VALLEYS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. KEEP IN MIND THERE
CONTINUES TO SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING/DEPTH/LOCATION OF THIS SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
GULF. ONE NOTICEABLE ASPECT OF THIS IN TERMS OF THE MODELS HAS BEEN
THE CONTINUAL GENERAL WARMING TREND OF THIS SYSTEM...THEREFORE THIS
WILL LEAD IMPLICATIONS ON THE CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW.
GENERALLY WAS USED HERE ONLY BECAUSE MODELS HAVE BEEN BACK AND FORTH
ON HOW QUICKLY COOLER AIR FILTERS IN WITH LATEST 12Z GFS SLIGHTLY
COOLER. GIVEN THE LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER SOLUTIONS THINKING CONTINUES
TO BE LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...HOWEVER CHANGE OVER WILL EVENTUALLY OCCUR OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY. OTHER ISSUES AGAINST MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM IS WE GET DRY SLOTTED GIVING WAY TO
LITTLE IF ANY DENDRITIC GROWTH AND WINDS STAY MORE SOUTHWESTERLY NOT
ALLOWING FOR ANY UPSLOPE COMPONENT. ISSUE TWO AND POSSIBLY MORE
CONCERNING WITH RESPECT TO THIS STRONG SYSTEM WILL BE BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO GUST 30 TO 40 ACROSS THE REGION AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CROSSES.

OTHERWISE THE SURFACE LOW WILL QUICKLY PROGRESS NE AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES TO WRAP UP AND NEGATIVELY TILT. POPS WILL ALSO DROP
OFF AS WE MOVE INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCES RAIN/SNOW
ACROSS FAR NE CWA WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. SOME CLEARING CAN BE EXPECTED AS WE MOVE THROUGH CHRISTMAS
DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
AND RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY BUILD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
LATE AND HIGHS MAKING IT BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. WHILE
THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING
SLIGHT TO CHANCES RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY BASED ON THE BLEND AT THIS POINT. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO HAVE
LITTLE MOISTURE TO PLAY WITH. THE MODELS DIVERGE QUITE A BIT AS WE
MOVE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE 12Z GFS QUICKLY MOVES HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE SE US...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF DEVELOPS A LOW
PRESSURE THAT RIDES ALONG THE SE COASTAL STATES BRINGING SOME POPS
ACROSS MAINLY SE KY INTO SUNDAY. SOME OF THIS COULD BE IN THE FORM OF
A RAIN/SNOW MIX INTO SUNDAY NIGHT INTO PORTIONS OF SUNDAY. HAVE OPTED
TO STICK WITH BLEND AT THIS POINT WHICH ONLY KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE AT
THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

WHILE INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL BE SEEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR...AS
DOWNSLOPING SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN KEEPS CLOUD HEIGHTS
HIGHER. THE CLOUDS MAY DISSIPATE FOR A TIME TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...BEFORE HIGH/MID CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM. THUS...PLAN TO STICK WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...KAS








000
FXUS63 KJKL 220326
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1026 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1025 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO SWITCH AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST ALREADY THIS
EVENING AND WARMER TEMPS ARE BEGINNING TO BE DISPLAYED AT MAINLY
RIDGE LOCATIONS. SOME VALLEYS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME WINDS THIS
EVENING AND AS SUCH HAVE BEEN WARMER AS WELL. THE DEEP VALLEYS IN THE
WEST MAY HAVE ALREADY REACH THEIR LOW TEMP FOR THE NIGHT AS TEMPS
WILL START TO WARM TOWARDS DAWN. ADJUSTED FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SPRINKLES AS WELL. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK BUT DID
ISSUE A NEW ZFP MAINLY FOR SPRINKLES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 718 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

DESPITE SOME HOURLY TEMPS BEING SLIGHTLY OFF THIS EVENING HEADING
INTO TONIGHT...THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR PRECIP MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH BUT MODELS ARE
CONTINUING TO KEEP MUCH OF THE AREA DRY...ESPECIALLY WITH DOWN SLOPE
FLOW THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST INTO THE DAWN
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

THE CURRENT SURFACE MAP FEATURES RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY...WITH DEEPER LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS
NORTHERN MONTANA. A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ALSO ALIGNED ALONG
THE GULF OF MEXICO. ALOFT...DEEPER TROUGHING IS TAKING SHAPE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH MODEST RIDGING OCCURRING IN THE EASTERN
CONUS. A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY HAS BEEN ON TAP FOR MOST OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY THANKS TO THIS RIDGING. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S NORTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR...TO THE
UPPER 40S AND EVEN A FEW 50 DEGREE READINGS IN PORTIONS OF THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO SWING
EAST NORTHEAST...REACHING THE CAROLINA COAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WAVE WILL PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...BRINGING THE THREAT OF SPRINKLES AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO
EASTERN KENTUCKY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY WITH EARLY
CLEARING. EXPECT THAT SOME OF THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS IN THE
NORTHEAST WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S AT LEAST...BEFORE
MODIFYING TOWARDS DAWN AS THICKER CLOUD COVER MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTH.

ONCE THE INFLUENCE FROM THE WAVE MOVES OUT BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...
CLOUD COVER WILL THIN OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND DRY WEATHER CAN
BE EXPECTED AS SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ENGAGE OUT AHEAD OF AN
EVOLVING DYNAMIC SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BE NEARING FROM THE WEST...WITH
SOME SHOWERS THREATENING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA TOWARDS
DAWN TUESDAY MORNING. LOWS WILL BE MILD...MAINLY IN THE
40S...ALTHOUGH A FEW UPPER 30 DEGREE READINGS MAY BE ACHIEVABLE EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

PERIOD BEGINS WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL US. A ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE PARKED ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST AS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEING APPROACHING THE REGION TUESDAY. THEREFORE
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG AND EVENTUALLY ENERGY WILL
GET TRANSFERRED SOUTH AS LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE TN/OH VALLEYS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. KEEP IN MIND THERE
CONTINUES TO SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING/DEPTH/LOCATION OF THIS SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
GULF. ONE NOTICEABLE ASPECT OF THIS IN TERMS OF THE MODELS HAS BEEN
THE CONTINUAL GENERAL WARMING TREND OF THIS SYSTEM...THEREFORE THIS
WILL LEAD IMPLICATIONS ON THE CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW.
GENERALLY WAS USED HERE ONLY BECAUSE MODELS HAVE BEEN BACK AND FORTH
ON HOW QUICKLY COOLER AIR FILTERS IN WITH LATEST 12Z GFS SLIGHTLY
COOLER. GIVEN THE LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER SOLUTIONS THINKING CONTINUES
TO BE LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...HOWEVER CHANGE OVER WILL EVENTUALLY OCCUR OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY. OTHER ISSUES AGAINST MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM IS WE GET DRY SLOTTED GIVING WAY TO
LITTLE IF ANY DENDRITIC GROWTH AND WINDS STAY MORE SOUTHWESTERLY NOT
ALLOWING FOR ANY UPSLOPE COMPONENT. ISSUE TWO AND POSSIBLY MORE
CONCERNING WITH RESPECT TO THIS STRONG SYSTEM WILL BE BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO GUST 30 TO 40 ACROSS THE REGION AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CROSSES.

OTHERWISE THE SURFACE LOW WILL QUICKLY PROGRESS NE AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES TO WRAP UP AND NEGATIVELY TILT. POPS WILL ALSO DROP
OFF AS WE MOVE INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCES RAIN/SNOW
ACROSS FAR NE CWA WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. SOME CLEARING CAN BE EXPECTED AS WE MOVE THROUGH CHRISTMAS
DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
AND RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY BUILD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
LATE AND HIGHS MAKING IT BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. WHILE
THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING
SLIGHT TO CHANCES RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY BASED ON THE BLEND AT THIS POINT. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO HAVE
LITTLE MOISTURE TO PLAY WITH. THE MODELS DIVERGE QUITE A BIT AS WE
MOVE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE 12Z GFS QUICKLY MOVES HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE SE US...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF DEVELOPS A LOW
PRESSURE THAT RIDES ALONG THE SE COASTAL STATES BRINGING SOME POPS
ACROSS MAINLY SE KY INTO SUNDAY. SOME OF THIS COULD BE IN THE FORM OF
A RAIN/SNOW MIX INTO SUNDAY NIGHT INTO PORTIONS OF SUNDAY. HAVE OPTED
TO STICK WITH BLEND AT THIS POINT WHICH ONLY KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE AT
THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 718 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING CLOUD COVER INTO
THE AREA TOWARDS DAWN. THIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP ANY FOG FROM
DEVELOPING AND LOW CEILINGS WILL BE AROUND 4 KFT SO NOT EXPECTING ANY
MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT BEFORE
AROUND 12Z AND THEN STRONGER SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE
WITH THE INVERSION BREAK WITH SOME 10 KNOT WINDS AND SOME GUSTS
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A MAINLY VFR TAF PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER








000
FXUS63 KJKL 220326
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1026 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1025 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO SWITCH AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST ALREADY THIS
EVENING AND WARMER TEMPS ARE BEGINNING TO BE DISPLAYED AT MAINLY
RIDGE LOCATIONS. SOME VALLEYS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME WINDS THIS
EVENING AND AS SUCH HAVE BEEN WARMER AS WELL. THE DEEP VALLEYS IN THE
WEST MAY HAVE ALREADY REACH THEIR LOW TEMP FOR THE NIGHT AS TEMPS
WILL START TO WARM TOWARDS DAWN. ADJUSTED FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SPRINKLES AS WELL. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK BUT DID
ISSUE A NEW ZFP MAINLY FOR SPRINKLES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 718 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

DESPITE SOME HOURLY TEMPS BEING SLIGHTLY OFF THIS EVENING HEADING
INTO TONIGHT...THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR PRECIP MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH BUT MODELS ARE
CONTINUING TO KEEP MUCH OF THE AREA DRY...ESPECIALLY WITH DOWN SLOPE
FLOW THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST INTO THE DAWN
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

THE CURRENT SURFACE MAP FEATURES RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY...WITH DEEPER LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS
NORTHERN MONTANA. A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ALSO ALIGNED ALONG
THE GULF OF MEXICO. ALOFT...DEEPER TROUGHING IS TAKING SHAPE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH MODEST RIDGING OCCURRING IN THE EASTERN
CONUS. A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY HAS BEEN ON TAP FOR MOST OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY THANKS TO THIS RIDGING. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S NORTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR...TO THE
UPPER 40S AND EVEN A FEW 50 DEGREE READINGS IN PORTIONS OF THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO SWING
EAST NORTHEAST...REACHING THE CAROLINA COAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WAVE WILL PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...BRINGING THE THREAT OF SPRINKLES AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO
EASTERN KENTUCKY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY WITH EARLY
CLEARING. EXPECT THAT SOME OF THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS IN THE
NORTHEAST WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S AT LEAST...BEFORE
MODIFYING TOWARDS DAWN AS THICKER CLOUD COVER MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTH.

ONCE THE INFLUENCE FROM THE WAVE MOVES OUT BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...
CLOUD COVER WILL THIN OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND DRY WEATHER CAN
BE EXPECTED AS SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ENGAGE OUT AHEAD OF AN
EVOLVING DYNAMIC SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BE NEARING FROM THE WEST...WITH
SOME SHOWERS THREATENING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA TOWARDS
DAWN TUESDAY MORNING. LOWS WILL BE MILD...MAINLY IN THE
40S...ALTHOUGH A FEW UPPER 30 DEGREE READINGS MAY BE ACHIEVABLE EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

PERIOD BEGINS WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL US. A ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE PARKED ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST AS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEING APPROACHING THE REGION TUESDAY. THEREFORE
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG AND EVENTUALLY ENERGY WILL
GET TRANSFERRED SOUTH AS LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE TN/OH VALLEYS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. KEEP IN MIND THERE
CONTINUES TO SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING/DEPTH/LOCATION OF THIS SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
GULF. ONE NOTICEABLE ASPECT OF THIS IN TERMS OF THE MODELS HAS BEEN
THE CONTINUAL GENERAL WARMING TREND OF THIS SYSTEM...THEREFORE THIS
WILL LEAD IMPLICATIONS ON THE CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW.
GENERALLY WAS USED HERE ONLY BECAUSE MODELS HAVE BEEN BACK AND FORTH
ON HOW QUICKLY COOLER AIR FILTERS IN WITH LATEST 12Z GFS SLIGHTLY
COOLER. GIVEN THE LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER SOLUTIONS THINKING CONTINUES
TO BE LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...HOWEVER CHANGE OVER WILL EVENTUALLY OCCUR OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY. OTHER ISSUES AGAINST MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM IS WE GET DRY SLOTTED GIVING WAY TO
LITTLE IF ANY DENDRITIC GROWTH AND WINDS STAY MORE SOUTHWESTERLY NOT
ALLOWING FOR ANY UPSLOPE COMPONENT. ISSUE TWO AND POSSIBLY MORE
CONCERNING WITH RESPECT TO THIS STRONG SYSTEM WILL BE BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO GUST 30 TO 40 ACROSS THE REGION AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CROSSES.

OTHERWISE THE SURFACE LOW WILL QUICKLY PROGRESS NE AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES TO WRAP UP AND NEGATIVELY TILT. POPS WILL ALSO DROP
OFF AS WE MOVE INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCES RAIN/SNOW
ACROSS FAR NE CWA WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. SOME CLEARING CAN BE EXPECTED AS WE MOVE THROUGH CHRISTMAS
DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
AND RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY BUILD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
LATE AND HIGHS MAKING IT BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. WHILE
THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING
SLIGHT TO CHANCES RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY BASED ON THE BLEND AT THIS POINT. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO HAVE
LITTLE MOISTURE TO PLAY WITH. THE MODELS DIVERGE QUITE A BIT AS WE
MOVE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE 12Z GFS QUICKLY MOVES HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE SE US...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF DEVELOPS A LOW
PRESSURE THAT RIDES ALONG THE SE COASTAL STATES BRINGING SOME POPS
ACROSS MAINLY SE KY INTO SUNDAY. SOME OF THIS COULD BE IN THE FORM OF
A RAIN/SNOW MIX INTO SUNDAY NIGHT INTO PORTIONS OF SUNDAY. HAVE OPTED
TO STICK WITH BLEND AT THIS POINT WHICH ONLY KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE AT
THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 718 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING CLOUD COVER INTO
THE AREA TOWARDS DAWN. THIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP ANY FOG FROM
DEVELOPING AND LOW CEILINGS WILL BE AROUND 4 KFT SO NOT EXPECTING ANY
MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT BEFORE
AROUND 12Z AND THEN STRONGER SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE
WITH THE INVERSION BREAK WITH SOME 10 KNOT WINDS AND SOME GUSTS
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A MAINLY VFR TAF PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER







000
FXUS63 KJKL 220018
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
718 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 718 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

DESPITE SOME HOURLY TEMPS BEING SLIGHTLY OFF THIS EVENING HEADING
INTO TONIGHT...THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR PRECIP MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH BUT MODELS ARE
CONTINUING TO KEEP MUCH OF THE AREA DRY...ESPECIALLY WITH DOWN SLOPE
FLOW THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST INTO THE DAWN
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

THE CURRENT SURFACE MAP FEATURES RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY...WITH DEEPER LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS
NORTHERN MONTANA. A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ALSO ALIGNED ALONG
THE GULF OF MEXICO. ALOFT...DEEPER TROUGHING IS TAKING SHAPE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH MODEST RIDGING OCCURRING IN THE EASTERN
CONUS. A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY HAS BEEN ON TAP FOR MOST OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY THANKS TO THIS RIDGING. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S NORTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR...TO THE
UPPER 40S AND EVEN A FEW 50 DEGREE READINGS IN PORTIONS OF THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO SWING
EAST NORTHEAST...REACHING THE CAROLINA COAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WAVE WILL PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...BRINGING THE THREAT OF SPRINKLES AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO
EASTERN KENTUCKY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY WITH EARLY
CLEARING. EXPECT THAT SOME OF THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS IN THE
NORTHEAST WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S AT LEAST...BEFORE
MODIFYING TOWARDS DAWN AS THICKER CLOUD COVER MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTH.

ONCE THE INFLUENCE FROM THE WAVE MOVES OUT BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...
CLOUD COVER WILL THIN OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND DRY WEATHER CAN
BE EXPECTED AS SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ENGAGE OUT AHEAD OF AN
EVOLVING DYNAMIC SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BE NEARING FROM THE WEST...WITH
SOME SHOWERS THREATENING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA TOWARDS
DAWN TUESDAY MORNING. LOWS WILL BE MILD...MAINLY IN THE
40S...ALTHOUGH A FEW UPPER 30 DEGREE READINGS MAY BE ACHIEVABLE EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

PERIOD BEGINS WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL US. A ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE PARKED ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST AS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEING APPROACHING THE REGION TUESDAY. THEREFORE
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG AND EVENTUALLY ENERGY WILL
GET TRANSFERRED SOUTH AS LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE TN/OH VALLEYS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. KEEP IN MIND THERE
CONTINUES TO SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING/DEPTH/LOCATION OF THIS SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
GULF. ONE NOTICEABLE ASPECT OF THIS IN TERMS OF THE MODELS HAS BEEN
THE CONTINUAL GENERAL WARMING TREND OF THIS SYSTEM...THEREFORE THIS
WILL LEAD IMPLICATIONS ON THE CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW.
GENERALLY WAS USED HERE ONLY BECAUSE MODELS HAVE BEEN BACK AND FORTH
ON HOW QUICKLY COOLER AIR FILTERS IN WITH LATEST 12Z GFS SLIGHTLY
COOLER. GIVEN THE LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER SOLUTIONS THINKING CONTINUES
TO BE LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...HOWEVER CHANGE OVER WILL EVENTUALLY OCCUR OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY. OTHER ISSUES AGAINST MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM IS WE GET DRY SLOTTED GIVING WAY TO
LITTLE IF ANY DENDRITIC GROWTH AND WINDS STAY MORE SOUTHWESTERLY NOT
ALLOWING FOR ANY UPSLOPE COMPONENT. ISSUE TWO AND POSSIBLY MORE
CONCERNING WITH RESPECT TO THIS STRONG SYSTEM WILL BE BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO GUST 30 TO 40 ACROSS THE REGION AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CROSSES.

OTHERWISE THE SURFACE LOW WILL QUICKLY PROGRESS NE AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES TO WRAP UP AND NEGATIVELY TILT. POPS WILL ALSO DROP
OFF AS WE MOVE INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCES RAIN/SNOW
ACROSS FAR NE CWA WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. SOME CLEARING CAN BE EXPECTED AS WE MOVE THROUGH CHRISTMAS
DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
AND RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY BUILD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
LATE AND HIGHS MAKING IT BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. WHILE
THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING
SLIGHT TO CHANCES RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY BASED ON THE BLEND AT THIS POINT. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO HAVE
LITTLE MOISTURE TO PLAY WITH. THE MODELS DIVERGE QUITE A BIT AS WE
MOVE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE 12Z GFS QUICKLY MOVES HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE SE US...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF DEVELOPS A LOW
PRESSURE THAT RIDES ALONG THE SE COASTAL STATES BRINGING SOME POPS
ACROSS MAINLY SE KY INTO SUNDAY. SOME OF THIS COULD BE IN THE FORM OF
A RAIN/SNOW MIX INTO SUNDAY NIGHT INTO PORTIONS OF SUNDAY. HAVE OPTED
TO STICK WITH BLEND AT THIS POINT WHICH ONLY KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE AT
THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 718 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING CLOUD COVER INTO
THE AREA TOWARDS DAWN. THIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP ANY FOG FROM
DEVELOPING AND LOW CEILINGS WILL BE AROUND 4 KFT SO NOT EXPECTING ANY
MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT BEFORE
AROUND 12Z AND THEN STRONGER SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE
WITH THE INVERSION BREAK WITH SOME 10 KNOT WINDS AND SOME GUSTS
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A MAINLY VFR TAF PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER







000
FXUS63 KJKL 220018
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
718 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 718 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

DESPITE SOME HOURLY TEMPS BEING SLIGHTLY OFF THIS EVENING HEADING
INTO TONIGHT...THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR PRECIP MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH BUT MODELS ARE
CONTINUING TO KEEP MUCH OF THE AREA DRY...ESPECIALLY WITH DOWN SLOPE
FLOW THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST INTO THE DAWN
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

THE CURRENT SURFACE MAP FEATURES RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY...WITH DEEPER LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS
NORTHERN MONTANA. A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ALSO ALIGNED ALONG
THE GULF OF MEXICO. ALOFT...DEEPER TROUGHING IS TAKING SHAPE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH MODEST RIDGING OCCURRING IN THE EASTERN
CONUS. A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY HAS BEEN ON TAP FOR MOST OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY THANKS TO THIS RIDGING. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S NORTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR...TO THE
UPPER 40S AND EVEN A FEW 50 DEGREE READINGS IN PORTIONS OF THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO SWING
EAST NORTHEAST...REACHING THE CAROLINA COAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WAVE WILL PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...BRINGING THE THREAT OF SPRINKLES AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO
EASTERN KENTUCKY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY WITH EARLY
CLEARING. EXPECT THAT SOME OF THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS IN THE
NORTHEAST WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S AT LEAST...BEFORE
MODIFYING TOWARDS DAWN AS THICKER CLOUD COVER MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTH.

ONCE THE INFLUENCE FROM THE WAVE MOVES OUT BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...
CLOUD COVER WILL THIN OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND DRY WEATHER CAN
BE EXPECTED AS SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ENGAGE OUT AHEAD OF AN
EVOLVING DYNAMIC SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BE NEARING FROM THE WEST...WITH
SOME SHOWERS THREATENING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA TOWARDS
DAWN TUESDAY MORNING. LOWS WILL BE MILD...MAINLY IN THE
40S...ALTHOUGH A FEW UPPER 30 DEGREE READINGS MAY BE ACHIEVABLE EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

PERIOD BEGINS WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL US. A ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE PARKED ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST AS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEING APPROACHING THE REGION TUESDAY. THEREFORE
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG AND EVENTUALLY ENERGY WILL
GET TRANSFERRED SOUTH AS LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE TN/OH VALLEYS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. KEEP IN MIND THERE
CONTINUES TO SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING/DEPTH/LOCATION OF THIS SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
GULF. ONE NOTICEABLE ASPECT OF THIS IN TERMS OF THE MODELS HAS BEEN
THE CONTINUAL GENERAL WARMING TREND OF THIS SYSTEM...THEREFORE THIS
WILL LEAD IMPLICATIONS ON THE CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW.
GENERALLY WAS USED HERE ONLY BECAUSE MODELS HAVE BEEN BACK AND FORTH
ON HOW QUICKLY COOLER AIR FILTERS IN WITH LATEST 12Z GFS SLIGHTLY
COOLER. GIVEN THE LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER SOLUTIONS THINKING CONTINUES
TO BE LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...HOWEVER CHANGE OVER WILL EVENTUALLY OCCUR OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY. OTHER ISSUES AGAINST MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM IS WE GET DRY SLOTTED GIVING WAY TO
LITTLE IF ANY DENDRITIC GROWTH AND WINDS STAY MORE SOUTHWESTERLY NOT
ALLOWING FOR ANY UPSLOPE COMPONENT. ISSUE TWO AND POSSIBLY MORE
CONCERNING WITH RESPECT TO THIS STRONG SYSTEM WILL BE BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO GUST 30 TO 40 ACROSS THE REGION AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CROSSES.

OTHERWISE THE SURFACE LOW WILL QUICKLY PROGRESS NE AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES TO WRAP UP AND NEGATIVELY TILT. POPS WILL ALSO DROP
OFF AS WE MOVE INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCES RAIN/SNOW
ACROSS FAR NE CWA WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. SOME CLEARING CAN BE EXPECTED AS WE MOVE THROUGH CHRISTMAS
DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
AND RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY BUILD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
LATE AND HIGHS MAKING IT BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. WHILE
THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING
SLIGHT TO CHANCES RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY BASED ON THE BLEND AT THIS POINT. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO HAVE
LITTLE MOISTURE TO PLAY WITH. THE MODELS DIVERGE QUITE A BIT AS WE
MOVE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE 12Z GFS QUICKLY MOVES HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE SE US...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF DEVELOPS A LOW
PRESSURE THAT RIDES ALONG THE SE COASTAL STATES BRINGING SOME POPS
ACROSS MAINLY SE KY INTO SUNDAY. SOME OF THIS COULD BE IN THE FORM OF
A RAIN/SNOW MIX INTO SUNDAY NIGHT INTO PORTIONS OF SUNDAY. HAVE OPTED
TO STICK WITH BLEND AT THIS POINT WHICH ONLY KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE AT
THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 718 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING CLOUD COVER INTO
THE AREA TOWARDS DAWN. THIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP ANY FOG FROM
DEVELOPING AND LOW CEILINGS WILL BE AROUND 4 KFT SO NOT EXPECTING ANY
MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT BEFORE
AROUND 12Z AND THEN STRONGER SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE
WITH THE INVERSION BREAK WITH SOME 10 KNOT WINDS AND SOME GUSTS
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A MAINLY VFR TAF PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER







000
FXUS63 KJKL 220018
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
718 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 718 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

DESPITE SOME HOURLY TEMPS BEING SLIGHTLY OFF THIS EVENING HEADING
INTO TONIGHT...THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR PRECIP MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH BUT MODELS ARE
CONTINUING TO KEEP MUCH OF THE AREA DRY...ESPECIALLY WITH DOWN SLOPE
FLOW THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST INTO THE DAWN
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

THE CURRENT SURFACE MAP FEATURES RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY...WITH DEEPER LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS
NORTHERN MONTANA. A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ALSO ALIGNED ALONG
THE GULF OF MEXICO. ALOFT...DEEPER TROUGHING IS TAKING SHAPE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH MODEST RIDGING OCCURRING IN THE EASTERN
CONUS. A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY HAS BEEN ON TAP FOR MOST OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY THANKS TO THIS RIDGING. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S NORTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR...TO THE
UPPER 40S AND EVEN A FEW 50 DEGREE READINGS IN PORTIONS OF THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO SWING
EAST NORTHEAST...REACHING THE CAROLINA COAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WAVE WILL PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...BRINGING THE THREAT OF SPRINKLES AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO
EASTERN KENTUCKY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY WITH EARLY
CLEARING. EXPECT THAT SOME OF THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS IN THE
NORTHEAST WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S AT LEAST...BEFORE
MODIFYING TOWARDS DAWN AS THICKER CLOUD COVER MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTH.

ONCE THE INFLUENCE FROM THE WAVE MOVES OUT BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...
CLOUD COVER WILL THIN OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND DRY WEATHER CAN
BE EXPECTED AS SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ENGAGE OUT AHEAD OF AN
EVOLVING DYNAMIC SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BE NEARING FROM THE WEST...WITH
SOME SHOWERS THREATENING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA TOWARDS
DAWN TUESDAY MORNING. LOWS WILL BE MILD...MAINLY IN THE
40S...ALTHOUGH A FEW UPPER 30 DEGREE READINGS MAY BE ACHIEVABLE EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

PERIOD BEGINS WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL US. A ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE PARKED ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST AS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEING APPROACHING THE REGION TUESDAY. THEREFORE
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG AND EVENTUALLY ENERGY WILL
GET TRANSFERRED SOUTH AS LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE TN/OH VALLEYS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. KEEP IN MIND THERE
CONTINUES TO SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING/DEPTH/LOCATION OF THIS SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
GULF. ONE NOTICEABLE ASPECT OF THIS IN TERMS OF THE MODELS HAS BEEN
THE CONTINUAL GENERAL WARMING TREND OF THIS SYSTEM...THEREFORE THIS
WILL LEAD IMPLICATIONS ON THE CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW.
GENERALLY WAS USED HERE ONLY BECAUSE MODELS HAVE BEEN BACK AND FORTH
ON HOW QUICKLY COOLER AIR FILTERS IN WITH LATEST 12Z GFS SLIGHTLY
COOLER. GIVEN THE LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER SOLUTIONS THINKING CONTINUES
TO BE LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...HOWEVER CHANGE OVER WILL EVENTUALLY OCCUR OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY. OTHER ISSUES AGAINST MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM IS WE GET DRY SLOTTED GIVING WAY TO
LITTLE IF ANY DENDRITIC GROWTH AND WINDS STAY MORE SOUTHWESTERLY NOT
ALLOWING FOR ANY UPSLOPE COMPONENT. ISSUE TWO AND POSSIBLY MORE
CONCERNING WITH RESPECT TO THIS STRONG SYSTEM WILL BE BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO GUST 30 TO 40 ACROSS THE REGION AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CROSSES.

OTHERWISE THE SURFACE LOW WILL QUICKLY PROGRESS NE AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES TO WRAP UP AND NEGATIVELY TILT. POPS WILL ALSO DROP
OFF AS WE MOVE INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCES RAIN/SNOW
ACROSS FAR NE CWA WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. SOME CLEARING CAN BE EXPECTED AS WE MOVE THROUGH CHRISTMAS
DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
AND RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY BUILD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
LATE AND HIGHS MAKING IT BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. WHILE
THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING
SLIGHT TO CHANCES RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY BASED ON THE BLEND AT THIS POINT. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO HAVE
LITTLE MOISTURE TO PLAY WITH. THE MODELS DIVERGE QUITE A BIT AS WE
MOVE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE 12Z GFS QUICKLY MOVES HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE SE US...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF DEVELOPS A LOW
PRESSURE THAT RIDES ALONG THE SE COASTAL STATES BRINGING SOME POPS
ACROSS MAINLY SE KY INTO SUNDAY. SOME OF THIS COULD BE IN THE FORM OF
A RAIN/SNOW MIX INTO SUNDAY NIGHT INTO PORTIONS OF SUNDAY. HAVE OPTED
TO STICK WITH BLEND AT THIS POINT WHICH ONLY KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE AT
THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 718 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING CLOUD COVER INTO
THE AREA TOWARDS DAWN. THIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP ANY FOG FROM
DEVELOPING AND LOW CEILINGS WILL BE AROUND 4 KFT SO NOT EXPECTING ANY
MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT BEFORE
AROUND 12Z AND THEN STRONGER SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE
WITH THE INVERSION BREAK WITH SOME 10 KNOT WINDS AND SOME GUSTS
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A MAINLY VFR TAF PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER








000
FXUS63 KJKL 220018
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
718 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 718 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

DESPITE SOME HOURLY TEMPS BEING SLIGHTLY OFF THIS EVENING HEADING
INTO TONIGHT...THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR PRECIP MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH BUT MODELS ARE
CONTINUING TO KEEP MUCH OF THE AREA DRY...ESPECIALLY WITH DOWN SLOPE
FLOW THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST INTO THE DAWN
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

THE CURRENT SURFACE MAP FEATURES RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY...WITH DEEPER LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS
NORTHERN MONTANA. A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ALSO ALIGNED ALONG
THE GULF OF MEXICO. ALOFT...DEEPER TROUGHING IS TAKING SHAPE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH MODEST RIDGING OCCURRING IN THE EASTERN
CONUS. A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY HAS BEEN ON TAP FOR MOST OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY THANKS TO THIS RIDGING. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S NORTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR...TO THE
UPPER 40S AND EVEN A FEW 50 DEGREE READINGS IN PORTIONS OF THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO SWING
EAST NORTHEAST...REACHING THE CAROLINA COAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WAVE WILL PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...BRINGING THE THREAT OF SPRINKLES AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO
EASTERN KENTUCKY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY WITH EARLY
CLEARING. EXPECT THAT SOME OF THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS IN THE
NORTHEAST WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S AT LEAST...BEFORE
MODIFYING TOWARDS DAWN AS THICKER CLOUD COVER MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTH.

ONCE THE INFLUENCE FROM THE WAVE MOVES OUT BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...
CLOUD COVER WILL THIN OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND DRY WEATHER CAN
BE EXPECTED AS SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ENGAGE OUT AHEAD OF AN
EVOLVING DYNAMIC SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BE NEARING FROM THE WEST...WITH
SOME SHOWERS THREATENING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA TOWARDS
DAWN TUESDAY MORNING. LOWS WILL BE MILD...MAINLY IN THE
40S...ALTHOUGH A FEW UPPER 30 DEGREE READINGS MAY BE ACHIEVABLE EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

PERIOD BEGINS WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL US. A ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE PARKED ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST AS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEING APPROACHING THE REGION TUESDAY. THEREFORE
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG AND EVENTUALLY ENERGY WILL
GET TRANSFERRED SOUTH AS LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE TN/OH VALLEYS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. KEEP IN MIND THERE
CONTINUES TO SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING/DEPTH/LOCATION OF THIS SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
GULF. ONE NOTICEABLE ASPECT OF THIS IN TERMS OF THE MODELS HAS BEEN
THE CONTINUAL GENERAL WARMING TREND OF THIS SYSTEM...THEREFORE THIS
WILL LEAD IMPLICATIONS ON THE CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW.
GENERALLY WAS USED HERE ONLY BECAUSE MODELS HAVE BEEN BACK AND FORTH
ON HOW QUICKLY COOLER AIR FILTERS IN WITH LATEST 12Z GFS SLIGHTLY
COOLER. GIVEN THE LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER SOLUTIONS THINKING CONTINUES
TO BE LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...HOWEVER CHANGE OVER WILL EVENTUALLY OCCUR OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY. OTHER ISSUES AGAINST MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM IS WE GET DRY SLOTTED GIVING WAY TO
LITTLE IF ANY DENDRITIC GROWTH AND WINDS STAY MORE SOUTHWESTERLY NOT
ALLOWING FOR ANY UPSLOPE COMPONENT. ISSUE TWO AND POSSIBLY MORE
CONCERNING WITH RESPECT TO THIS STRONG SYSTEM WILL BE BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO GUST 30 TO 40 ACROSS THE REGION AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CROSSES.

OTHERWISE THE SURFACE LOW WILL QUICKLY PROGRESS NE AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES TO WRAP UP AND NEGATIVELY TILT. POPS WILL ALSO DROP
OFF AS WE MOVE INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCES RAIN/SNOW
ACROSS FAR NE CWA WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. SOME CLEARING CAN BE EXPECTED AS WE MOVE THROUGH CHRISTMAS
DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
AND RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY BUILD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
LATE AND HIGHS MAKING IT BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. WHILE
THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING
SLIGHT TO CHANCES RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY BASED ON THE BLEND AT THIS POINT. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO HAVE
LITTLE MOISTURE TO PLAY WITH. THE MODELS DIVERGE QUITE A BIT AS WE
MOVE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE 12Z GFS QUICKLY MOVES HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE SE US...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF DEVELOPS A LOW
PRESSURE THAT RIDES ALONG THE SE COASTAL STATES BRINGING SOME POPS
ACROSS MAINLY SE KY INTO SUNDAY. SOME OF THIS COULD BE IN THE FORM OF
A RAIN/SNOW MIX INTO SUNDAY NIGHT INTO PORTIONS OF SUNDAY. HAVE OPTED
TO STICK WITH BLEND AT THIS POINT WHICH ONLY KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE AT
THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 718 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING CLOUD COVER INTO
THE AREA TOWARDS DAWN. THIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP ANY FOG FROM
DEVELOPING AND LOW CEILINGS WILL BE AROUND 4 KFT SO NOT EXPECTING ANY
MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT BEFORE
AROUND 12Z AND THEN STRONGER SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE
WITH THE INVERSION BREAK WITH SOME 10 KNOT WINDS AND SOME GUSTS
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A MAINLY VFR TAF PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER








000
FXUS63 KJKL 212057
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
357 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

THE CURRENT SURFACE MAP FEATURES RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY...WITH DEEPER LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS
NORTHERN MONTANA. A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ALSO ALIGNED ALONG
THE GULF OF MEXICO. ALOFT...DEEPER TROUGHING IS TAKING SHAPE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH MODEST RIDGING OCCURRING IN THE EASTERN
CONUS. A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY HAS BEEN ON TAP FOR MOST OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY THANKS TO THIS RIDGING. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S NORTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR...TO THE
UPPER 40S AND EVEN A FEW 50 DEGREE READINGS IN PORTIONS OF THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO SWING
EAST NORTHEAST...REACHING THE CAROLINA COAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WAVE WILL PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...BRINGING THE THREAT OF SPRINKLES AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO
EASTERN KENTUCKY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY WITH EARLY
CLEARING. EXPECT THAT SOME OF THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS IN THE
NORTHEAST WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S AT LEAST...BEFORE
MODIFYING TOWARDS DAWN AS THICKER CLOUD COVER MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTH.

ONCE THE INFLUENCE FROM THE WAVE MOVES OUT BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...
CLOUD COVER WILL THIN OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND DRY WEATHER CAN
BE EXPECTED AS SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ENGAGE OUT AHEAD OF AN
EVOLVING DYNAMIC SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BE NEARING FROM THE WEST...WITH
SOME SHOWERS THREATENING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA TOWARDS
DAWN TUESDAY MORNING. LOWS WILL BE MILD...MAINLY IN THE
40S...ALTHOUGH A FEW UPPER 30 DEGREE READINGS MAY BE ACHIEVABLE EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

PERIOD BEGINS WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL US. A ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE PARKED ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST AS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEING APPROACHING THE REGION TUESDAY. THEREFORE
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG AND EVENTUALLY ENERGY WILL
GET TRANSFERRED SOUTH AS LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE TN/OH VALLEYS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. KEEP IN MIND THERE
CONTINUES TO SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING/DEPTH/LOCATION OF THIS SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
GULF. ONE NOTICEABLE ASPECT OF THIS IN TERMS OF THE MODELS HAS BEEN
THE CONTINUAL GENERAL WARMING TREND OF THIS SYSTEM...THEREFORE THIS
WILL LEAD IMPLICATIONS ON THE CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW.
GENERALLY WAS USED HERE ONLY BECAUSE MODELS HAVE BEEN BACK AND FORTH
ON HOW QUICKLY COOLER AIR FILTERS IN WITH LATEST 12Z GFS SLIGHTLY
COOLER. GIVEN THE LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER SOLUTIONS THINKING CONTINUES
TO BE LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...HOWEVER CHANGE OVER WILL EVENTUALLY OCCUR OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY. OTHER ISSUES AGAINST MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM IS WE GET DRY SLOTTED GIVING WAY TO
LITTLE IF ANY DENDRITIC GROWTH AND WINDS STAY MORE SOUTHWESTERLY NOT
ALLOWING FOR ANY UPSLOPE COMPONENT. ISSUE TWO AND POSSIBLY MORE
CONCERNING WITH RESPECT TO THIS STRONG SYSTEM WILL BE BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO GUST 30 TO 40 ACROSS THE REGION AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CROSSES.

OTHERWISE THE SURFACE LOW WILL QUICKLY PROGRESS NE AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES TO WRAP UP AND NEGATIVELY TILT. POPS WILL ALSO DROP
OFF AS WE MOVE INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCES RAIN/SNOW
ACROSS FAR NE CWA WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. SOME CLEARING CAN BE EXPECTED AS WE MOVE THROUGH CHRISTMAS
DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
AND RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY BUILD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
LATE AND HIGHS MAKING IT BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. WHILE
THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING
SLIGHT TO CHANCES RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY BASED ON THE BLEND AT THIS POINT. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO HAVE
LITTLE MOISTURE TO PLAY WITH. THE MODELS DIVERGE QUITE A BIT AS WE
MOVE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE 12Z GFS QUICKLY MOVES HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE SE US...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF DEVELOPS A LOW
PRESSURE THAT RIDES ALONG THE SE COASTAL STATES BRINGING SOME POPS
ACROSS MAINLY SE KY INTO SUNDAY. SOME OF THIS COULD BE IN THE FORM OF
A RAIN/SNOW MIX INTO SUNDAY NIGHT INTO PORTIONS OF SUNDAY. HAVE OPTED
TO STICK WITH BLEND AT THIS POINT WHICH ONLY KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE AT
THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES AND
PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY.
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY DROP OFF TO BETWEEN 3 AND 5K FEET AGL...WITH
LOCATIONS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST POSSIBLY SEEING MVFR CONDITIONS AS
WELL AS A FEW PASSING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. WINDS WILL AVERAGE LESS
THAN 5 KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY AT
AROUND 5 KTS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN









000
FXUS63 KJKL 212057
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
357 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

THE CURRENT SURFACE MAP FEATURES RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY...WITH DEEPER LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS
NORTHERN MONTANA. A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ALSO ALIGNED ALONG
THE GULF OF MEXICO. ALOFT...DEEPER TROUGHING IS TAKING SHAPE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH MODEST RIDGING OCCURRING IN THE EASTERN
CONUS. A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY HAS BEEN ON TAP FOR MOST OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY THANKS TO THIS RIDGING. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S NORTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR...TO THE
UPPER 40S AND EVEN A FEW 50 DEGREE READINGS IN PORTIONS OF THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO SWING
EAST NORTHEAST...REACHING THE CAROLINA COAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WAVE WILL PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...BRINGING THE THREAT OF SPRINKLES AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO
EASTERN KENTUCKY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY WITH EARLY
CLEARING. EXPECT THAT SOME OF THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS IN THE
NORTHEAST WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S AT LEAST...BEFORE
MODIFYING TOWARDS DAWN AS THICKER CLOUD COVER MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTH.

ONCE THE INFLUENCE FROM THE WAVE MOVES OUT BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...
CLOUD COVER WILL THIN OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND DRY WEATHER CAN
BE EXPECTED AS SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ENGAGE OUT AHEAD OF AN
EVOLVING DYNAMIC SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BE NEARING FROM THE WEST...WITH
SOME SHOWERS THREATENING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA TOWARDS
DAWN TUESDAY MORNING. LOWS WILL BE MILD...MAINLY IN THE
40S...ALTHOUGH A FEW UPPER 30 DEGREE READINGS MAY BE ACHIEVABLE EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

PERIOD BEGINS WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL US. A ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE PARKED ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST AS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEING APPROACHING THE REGION TUESDAY. THEREFORE
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG AND EVENTUALLY ENERGY WILL
GET TRANSFERRED SOUTH AS LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE TN/OH VALLEYS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. KEEP IN MIND THERE
CONTINUES TO SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING/DEPTH/LOCATION OF THIS SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
GULF. ONE NOTICEABLE ASPECT OF THIS IN TERMS OF THE MODELS HAS BEEN
THE CONTINUAL GENERAL WARMING TREND OF THIS SYSTEM...THEREFORE THIS
WILL LEAD IMPLICATIONS ON THE CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW.
GENERALLY WAS USED HERE ONLY BECAUSE MODELS HAVE BEEN BACK AND FORTH
ON HOW QUICKLY COOLER AIR FILTERS IN WITH LATEST 12Z GFS SLIGHTLY
COOLER. GIVEN THE LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER SOLUTIONS THINKING CONTINUES
TO BE LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...HOWEVER CHANGE OVER WILL EVENTUALLY OCCUR OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY. OTHER ISSUES AGAINST MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM IS WE GET DRY SLOTTED GIVING WAY TO
LITTLE IF ANY DENDRITIC GROWTH AND WINDS STAY MORE SOUTHWESTERLY NOT
ALLOWING FOR ANY UPSLOPE COMPONENT. ISSUE TWO AND POSSIBLY MORE
CONCERNING WITH RESPECT TO THIS STRONG SYSTEM WILL BE BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO GUST 30 TO 40 ACROSS THE REGION AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CROSSES.

OTHERWISE THE SURFACE LOW WILL QUICKLY PROGRESS NE AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES TO WRAP UP AND NEGATIVELY TILT. POPS WILL ALSO DROP
OFF AS WE MOVE INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCES RAIN/SNOW
ACROSS FAR NE CWA WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. SOME CLEARING CAN BE EXPECTED AS WE MOVE THROUGH CHRISTMAS
DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
AND RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY BUILD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
LATE AND HIGHS MAKING IT BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. WHILE
THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING
SLIGHT TO CHANCES RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY BASED ON THE BLEND AT THIS POINT. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO HAVE
LITTLE MOISTURE TO PLAY WITH. THE MODELS DIVERGE QUITE A BIT AS WE
MOVE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE 12Z GFS QUICKLY MOVES HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE SE US...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF DEVELOPS A LOW
PRESSURE THAT RIDES ALONG THE SE COASTAL STATES BRINGING SOME POPS
ACROSS MAINLY SE KY INTO SUNDAY. SOME OF THIS COULD BE IN THE FORM OF
A RAIN/SNOW MIX INTO SUNDAY NIGHT INTO PORTIONS OF SUNDAY. HAVE OPTED
TO STICK WITH BLEND AT THIS POINT WHICH ONLY KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE AT
THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES AND
PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY.
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY DROP OFF TO BETWEEN 3 AND 5K FEET AGL...WITH
LOCATIONS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST POSSIBLY SEEING MVFR CONDITIONS AS
WELL AS A FEW PASSING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. WINDS WILL AVERAGE LESS
THAN 5 KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY AT
AROUND 5 KTS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN










000
FXUS63 KJKL 211830 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
130 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 130 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT TRENDS TO JIVE
BETTER WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1045 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

FRESHENED UP THE SKY COVER...TEMPERATURE...AND DEW POINT TRENDS
THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS LIFTED AND BURNED OFF
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BIG SANDY...KENTUCKY...AND CUMBERLAND RIVER
BASINS. THE STRATOCU DECK PLAGUING LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-64 IS
STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF THINNING...HOWEVER HAVE ALLOWED FOR A BIT
MORE CLOUD COVER TO LINGER IN LONGER BASED ON THE SATELLITE TRENDS
THROUGH THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE...ACTUALLY REDUCED THE SKY A BIT...AS
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD REIGN UNTIL RETURN FLOW ADVECTS IN LOWER
CLOUDS FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
TONIGHT. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK ON TARGET. UPDATES
HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE SKY COVER GRIDS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING. A
SWATH OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE STUBBORNLY PERSISTED ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THESE CLOUDS LOOK
LIKE THEY WILL PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS BASED ON CURRENT
SATELLITE TRENDS AND THE LATEST MODELS SOUNDINGS. THEREFORE...THE SKY
COVER GRIDS FROM 9 TO 12Z HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THE CLOUDINESS
UP NORTH. THE REST OF THE FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO FURTHER
CHANGES NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

A FAIRLY CALM PERIOD IS ON TAP FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST. LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. AFTER A
FEW HOURS OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...A FEW LOW AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD
OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE PAST WELL TO OUR SOUTH.
THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. AS IT DOES SO...A BIT OF
MOISTURE THAT THE SYSTEM BRINGS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO COULD SPILL
OVER OUR EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THIS MEAGER MOISTURE MAY EVEN SPAWN SOME
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS IN OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ALONG THE VIRGINIA
BORDER. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING LOW WILL MAKE
EVEN ISOLATED SHOWERS A BIT OF A STRETCH...BUT THERE COULD BE JUST
ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR A FEW TO FORM...SO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL BE CARRIED IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES FROM LATE SUNDAY
INTO THROUGH MID MORNING MORNING. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL CLOUD
COVER WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...WITH HIGHS TODAY
EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE AREA.
LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY MAY ONLY REACH THE LOWER 40S.
WITH CLOUD COVER ON THE INCREASE...AND WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST...OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS COLD AS THIS
MORNINGS FORECAST LOWS. WE SHOULD SEE MIN TEMPS ON SATURDAY MORNING
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE AREA. ONCE PERSISTENT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED ON SUNDAY...DOWNSLOPE WARMING
WILL OCCUR...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM SIGNIFICANTLY AROUND
EASTERN KENTUCKY. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM MAXING OUT
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED HEADING INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING...BUT
WE SHOULD DRY OUT FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE A SHEARING OUT COLD FRONT THAT COULD BRING A SMALL
CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL RESIDE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW LOCKED IN ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY MUCH OF TUESDAY. FURTHER
AWAY FROM THE EFFECTS OF THIS DOWNSLOPING...WE MAY SEE SOME RAIN
PUSH INTO THE BLUEGRASS OR SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY BY MIDDAY TUESDAY
OR SOMETIME IN THE AFTERNOON. WHILE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON HOW
THIS WHOLE SYSTEM EVOLVES...ONE THING SEEMS PRETTY SURE IS THAT WE
WILL HAVE TREMENDOUS LIFT AND FORCING GO ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT WORKS ACROSS THE AREA. FOR
THIS REASON...WILL GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS. THE GFS REMAINS MORE
PRONOUNCED WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDING TO A LESS WRAPPED UP
SYSTEM. THESE TWO WIDELY DIFFERENT SCENARIOS BRINGS INTO QUESTION
EXACTLY WHEN WE MIGHT SEE ANY TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA. IN FACT...THE GFS NEVER REALLY GETS COLD ENOUGH AIR INTO THE
AREA TO SUPPORT MUCH SNOW AT ALL. WHAT COLD AIR IT DOES PORTRAY DOES
NOT COINCIDE WITH AN AREA OF LIFT OR VERY DEEP MOISTURE. WHILE THE
ECMWF LOOKS A LITTLE BETTER FOR SNOW...EVEN IT HAS BEEN BACKING OFF
ON THE SNOW POTENTIAL. THIS COMBINED WITH AN UNFAVORABLE UPSLOPE
WESTERLY WIND...WILL REALLY MAKE IT HARD TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. WHILE WE MAY STILL SEE A FEW FLAKES...THINKING
THIS MAY NOT BE MUCH OF AN IMPACT FOR OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE ONE CONCERN THAT STILL EXIST IS THE HIGH WIND POTENTIAL ON
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SURGES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS ALONG
AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 45 MPH. WHILE WE
SHOULD SEE WINDS SUBSIDE SOME INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SOME WIND GUSTS
TO 35 MPH WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.

BY CHRISTMAS DAY RIDGING WILL ALREADY BE PUSHING INTO THE AREA WITH
HIGHS MAKING A NICE RECOVERY TO AROUND 50. OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER A
MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL HEAD TOWARDS THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEK. MODELS DIFFER QUITE A BIT ON TIMING...SO HAVE BACKED OFF ON
THE HIGHER POPS AND GONE WITH A LONGER PERIOD OF LOW CHANCE POPS
FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MOST LIKELY ANY RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
LIMITED TO A 3 TO 5 HOUR WINDOW...BUT PINNING IT DOWN THIS FAR OUT
IS JUST ABOUT IMPOSSIBLE. MILD WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY
BEFORE COLDER AIR RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES AND
PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY.
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY DROP OFF TO BETWEEN 3 AND 5K FEET AGL...WITH
LOCATIONS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST POSSIBLY SEEING MVFR CONDITIONS AS
WELL AS A FEW PASSING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. WINDS WILL AVERAGE LESS
THAN 5 KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY AT
AROUND 5 KTS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN







000
FXUS63 KJKL 211830 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
130 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 130 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT TRENDS TO JIVE
BETTER WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1045 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

FRESHENED UP THE SKY COVER...TEMPERATURE...AND DEW POINT TRENDS
THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS LIFTED AND BURNED OFF
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BIG SANDY...KENTUCKY...AND CUMBERLAND RIVER
BASINS. THE STRATOCU DECK PLAGUING LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-64 IS
STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF THINNING...HOWEVER HAVE ALLOWED FOR A BIT
MORE CLOUD COVER TO LINGER IN LONGER BASED ON THE SATELLITE TRENDS
THROUGH THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE...ACTUALLY REDUCED THE SKY A BIT...AS
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD REIGN UNTIL RETURN FLOW ADVECTS IN LOWER
CLOUDS FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
TONIGHT. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK ON TARGET. UPDATES
HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE SKY COVER GRIDS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING. A
SWATH OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE STUBBORNLY PERSISTED ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THESE CLOUDS LOOK
LIKE THEY WILL PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS BASED ON CURRENT
SATELLITE TRENDS AND THE LATEST MODELS SOUNDINGS. THEREFORE...THE SKY
COVER GRIDS FROM 9 TO 12Z HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THE CLOUDINESS
UP NORTH. THE REST OF THE FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO FURTHER
CHANGES NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

A FAIRLY CALM PERIOD IS ON TAP FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST. LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. AFTER A
FEW HOURS OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...A FEW LOW AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD
OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE PAST WELL TO OUR SOUTH.
THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. AS IT DOES SO...A BIT OF
MOISTURE THAT THE SYSTEM BRINGS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO COULD SPILL
OVER OUR EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THIS MEAGER MOISTURE MAY EVEN SPAWN SOME
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS IN OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ALONG THE VIRGINIA
BORDER. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING LOW WILL MAKE
EVEN ISOLATED SHOWERS A BIT OF A STRETCH...BUT THERE COULD BE JUST
ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR A FEW TO FORM...SO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL BE CARRIED IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES FROM LATE SUNDAY
INTO THROUGH MID MORNING MORNING. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL CLOUD
COVER WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...WITH HIGHS TODAY
EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE AREA.
LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY MAY ONLY REACH THE LOWER 40S.
WITH CLOUD COVER ON THE INCREASE...AND WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST...OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS COLD AS THIS
MORNINGS FORECAST LOWS. WE SHOULD SEE MIN TEMPS ON SATURDAY MORNING
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE AREA. ONCE PERSISTENT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED ON SUNDAY...DOWNSLOPE WARMING
WILL OCCUR...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM SIGNIFICANTLY AROUND
EASTERN KENTUCKY. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM MAXING OUT
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED HEADING INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING...BUT
WE SHOULD DRY OUT FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE A SHEARING OUT COLD FRONT THAT COULD BRING A SMALL
CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL RESIDE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW LOCKED IN ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY MUCH OF TUESDAY. FURTHER
AWAY FROM THE EFFECTS OF THIS DOWNSLOPING...WE MAY SEE SOME RAIN
PUSH INTO THE BLUEGRASS OR SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY BY MIDDAY TUESDAY
OR SOMETIME IN THE AFTERNOON. WHILE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON HOW
THIS WHOLE SYSTEM EVOLVES...ONE THING SEEMS PRETTY SURE IS THAT WE
WILL HAVE TREMENDOUS LIFT AND FORCING GO ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT WORKS ACROSS THE AREA. FOR
THIS REASON...WILL GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS. THE GFS REMAINS MORE
PRONOUNCED WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDING TO A LESS WRAPPED UP
SYSTEM. THESE TWO WIDELY DIFFERENT SCENARIOS BRINGS INTO QUESTION
EXACTLY WHEN WE MIGHT SEE ANY TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA. IN FACT...THE GFS NEVER REALLY GETS COLD ENOUGH AIR INTO THE
AREA TO SUPPORT MUCH SNOW AT ALL. WHAT COLD AIR IT DOES PORTRAY DOES
NOT COINCIDE WITH AN AREA OF LIFT OR VERY DEEP MOISTURE. WHILE THE
ECMWF LOOKS A LITTLE BETTER FOR SNOW...EVEN IT HAS BEEN BACKING OFF
ON THE SNOW POTENTIAL. THIS COMBINED WITH AN UNFAVORABLE UPSLOPE
WESTERLY WIND...WILL REALLY MAKE IT HARD TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. WHILE WE MAY STILL SEE A FEW FLAKES...THINKING
THIS MAY NOT BE MUCH OF AN IMPACT FOR OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE ONE CONCERN THAT STILL EXIST IS THE HIGH WIND POTENTIAL ON
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SURGES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS ALONG
AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 45 MPH. WHILE WE
SHOULD SEE WINDS SUBSIDE SOME INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SOME WIND GUSTS
TO 35 MPH WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.

BY CHRISTMAS DAY RIDGING WILL ALREADY BE PUSHING INTO THE AREA WITH
HIGHS MAKING A NICE RECOVERY TO AROUND 50. OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER A
MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL HEAD TOWARDS THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEK. MODELS DIFFER QUITE A BIT ON TIMING...SO HAVE BACKED OFF ON
THE HIGHER POPS AND GONE WITH A LONGER PERIOD OF LOW CHANCE POPS
FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MOST LIKELY ANY RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
LIMITED TO A 3 TO 5 HOUR WINDOW...BUT PINNING IT DOWN THIS FAR OUT
IS JUST ABOUT IMPOSSIBLE. MILD WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY
BEFORE COLDER AIR RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES AND
PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY.
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY DROP OFF TO BETWEEN 3 AND 5K FEET AGL...WITH
LOCATIONS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST POSSIBLY SEEING MVFR CONDITIONS AS
WELL AS A FEW PASSING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. WINDS WILL AVERAGE LESS
THAN 5 KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY AT
AROUND 5 KTS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN








000
FXUS63 KJKL 211545 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1045 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

FRESHENED UP THE SKY COVER...TEMPERATURE...AND DEW POINT TRENDS
THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS LIFTED AND BURNED OFF
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BIG SANDY...KENTUCKY...AND CUMBERLAND RIVER
BASINS. THE STRATOCU DECK PLAGUING LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-64 IS
STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF THINNING...HOWEVER HAVE ALLOWED FOR A BIT
MORE CLOUD COVER TO LINGER IN LONGER BASED ON THE SATELLITE TRENDS
THROUGH THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE...ACTUALLY REDUCED THE SKY A BIT...AS
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD REIGN UNTIL RETURN FLOW ADVECTS IN LOWER
CLOUDS FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
TONIGHT. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK ON TARGET. UPDATES
HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE SKY COVER GRIDS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING. A
SWATH OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE STUBBORNLY PERSISTED ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THESE CLOUDS LOOK
LIKE THEY WILL PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS BASED ON CURRENT
SATELLITE TRENDS AND THE LATEST MODELS SOUNDINGS. THEREFORE...THE SKY
COVER GRIDS FROM 9 TO 12Z HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THE CLOUDINESS
UP NORTH. THE REST OF THE FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO FURTHER
CHANGES NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

A FAIRLY CALM PERIOD IS ON TAP FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST. LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. AFTER A
FEW HOURS OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...A FEW LOW AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD
OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE PAST WELL TO OUR SOUTH.
THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. AS IT DOES SO...A BIT OF
MOISTURE THAT THE SYSTEM BRINGS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO COULD SPILL
OVER OUR EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THIS MEAGER MOISTURE MAY EVEN SPAWN SOME
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS IN OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ALONG THE VIRGINIA
BORDER. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING LOW WILL MAKE
EVEN ISOLATED SHOWERS A BIT OF A STRETCH...BUT THERE COULD BE JUST
ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR A FEW TO FORM...SO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL BE CARRIED IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES FROM LATE SUNDAY
INTO THROUGH MID MORNING MORNING. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL CLOUD
COVER WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...WITH HIGHS TODAY
EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE AREA.
LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY MAY ONLY REACH THE LOWER 40S.
WITH CLOUD COVER ON THE INCREASE...AND WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST...OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS COLD AS THIS
MORNINGS FORECAST LOWS. WE SHOULD SEE MIN TEMPS ON SATURDAY MORNING
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE AREA. ONCE PERSISTENT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED ON SUNDAY...DOWNSLOPE WARMING
WILL OCCUR...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM SIGNIFICANTLY AROUND
EASTERN KENTUCKY. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM MAXING OUT
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED HEADING INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING...BUT
WE SHOULD DRY OUT FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE A SHEARING OUT COLD FRONT THAT COULD BRING A SMALL
CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL RESIDE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW LOCKED IN ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY MUCH OF TUESDAY. FURTHER
AWAY FROM THE EFFECTS OF THIS DOWNSLOPING...WE MAY SEE SOME RAIN
PUSH INTO THE BLUEGRASS OR SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY BY MIDDAY TUESDAY
OR SOMETIME IN THE AFTERNOON. WHILE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON HOW
THIS WHOLE SYSTEM EVOLVES...ONE THING SEEMS PRETTY SURE IS THAT WE
WILL HAVE TREMENDOUS LIFT AND FORCING GO ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT WORKS ACROSS THE AREA. FOR
THIS REASON...WILL GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS. THE GFS REMAINS MORE
PRONOUNCED WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDING TO A LESS WRAPPED UP
SYSTEM. THESE TWO WIDELY DIFFERENT SCENARIOS BRINGS INTO QUESTION
EXACTLY WHEN WE MIGHT SEE ANY TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA. IN FACT...THE GFS NEVER REALLY GETS COLD ENOUGH AIR INTO THE
AREA TO SUPPORT MUCH SNOW AT ALL. WHAT COLD AIR IT DOES PORTRAY DOES
NOT COINCIDE WITH AN AREA OF LIFT OR VERY DEEP MOISTURE. WHILE THE
ECMWF LOOKS A LITTLE BETTER FOR SNOW...EVEN IT HAS BEEN BACKING OFF
ON THE SNOW POTENTIAL. THIS COMBINED WITH AN UNFAVORABLE UPSLOPE
WESTERLY WIND...WILL REALLY MAKE IT HARD TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. WHILE WE MAY STILL SEE A FEW FLAKES...THINKING
THIS MAY NOT BE MUCH OF AN IMPACT FOR OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE ONE CONCERN THAT STILL EXIST IS THE HIGH WIND POTENTIAL ON
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SURGES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS ALONG
AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 45 MPH. WHILE WE
SHOULD SEE WINDS SUBSIDE SOME INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SOME WIND GUSTS
TO 35 MPH WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.

BY CHRISTMAS DAY RIDGING WILL ALREADY BE PUSHING INTO THE AREA WITH
HIGHS MAKING A NICE RECOVERY TO AROUND 50. OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER A
MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL HEAD TOWARDS THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEK. MODELS DIFFER QUITE A BIT ON TIMING...SO HAVE BACKED OFF ON
THE HIGHER POPS AND GONE WITH A LONGER PERIOD OF LOW CHANCE POPS
FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MOST LIKELY ANY RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
LIMITED TO A 3 TO 5 HOUR WINDOW...BUT PINNING IT DOWN THIS FAR OUT
IS JUST ABOUT IMPOSSIBLE. MILD WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY
BEFORE COLDER AIR RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

A FEW THINGS OF NOTE AT THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. SME HAS BEEN
EXPERIENCING SOME LIGHT FOG OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND WILL
LIKELY SEE THIS FOG PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT 13Z. AFTER THAT THE FOG
SHOULD BURN OFF. SJS...LOZ...AND JKL ARE ALL EXPERIENCING CLEAR SKIES
WITH VFR CONDITIONS. THE ONE EXCEPTION THIS MORNING IS SYM. A SWATH
OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDS HAS KEPT SYM BLANKETED WITH MVFR CIGS OF
AROUND 1.5K OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THIS TREND IN CLOUDINESS IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 16 OR 17Z BEFORE THE CLOUDS FINALLY BEGIN
TO SCATTER OUT. ALL OF THE TAF SITES SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE A FEW LOW
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN AROUND 21Z TODAY AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...AR







000
FXUS63 KJKL 211545 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1045 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

FRESHENED UP THE SKY COVER...TEMPERATURE...AND DEW POINT TRENDS
THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS LIFTED AND BURNED OFF
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BIG SANDY...KENTUCKY...AND CUMBERLAND RIVER
BASINS. THE STRATOCU DECK PLAGUING LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-64 IS
STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF THINNING...HOWEVER HAVE ALLOWED FOR A BIT
MORE CLOUD COVER TO LINGER IN LONGER BASED ON THE SATELLITE TRENDS
THROUGH THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE...ACTUALLY REDUCED THE SKY A BIT...AS
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD REIGN UNTIL RETURN FLOW ADVECTS IN LOWER
CLOUDS FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
TONIGHT. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK ON TARGET. UPDATES
HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE SKY COVER GRIDS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING. A
SWATH OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE STUBBORNLY PERSISTED ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THESE CLOUDS LOOK
LIKE THEY WILL PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS BASED ON CURRENT
SATELLITE TRENDS AND THE LATEST MODELS SOUNDINGS. THEREFORE...THE SKY
COVER GRIDS FROM 9 TO 12Z HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THE CLOUDINESS
UP NORTH. THE REST OF THE FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO FURTHER
CHANGES NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

A FAIRLY CALM PERIOD IS ON TAP FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST. LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. AFTER A
FEW HOURS OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...A FEW LOW AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD
OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE PAST WELL TO OUR SOUTH.
THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. AS IT DOES SO...A BIT OF
MOISTURE THAT THE SYSTEM BRINGS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO COULD SPILL
OVER OUR EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THIS MEAGER MOISTURE MAY EVEN SPAWN SOME
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS IN OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ALONG THE VIRGINIA
BORDER. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING LOW WILL MAKE
EVEN ISOLATED SHOWERS A BIT OF A STRETCH...BUT THERE COULD BE JUST
ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR A FEW TO FORM...SO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL BE CARRIED IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES FROM LATE SUNDAY
INTO THROUGH MID MORNING MORNING. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL CLOUD
COVER WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...WITH HIGHS TODAY
EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE AREA.
LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY MAY ONLY REACH THE LOWER 40S.
WITH CLOUD COVER ON THE INCREASE...AND WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST...OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS COLD AS THIS
MORNINGS FORECAST LOWS. WE SHOULD SEE MIN TEMPS ON SATURDAY MORNING
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE AREA. ONCE PERSISTENT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED ON SUNDAY...DOWNSLOPE WARMING
WILL OCCUR...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM SIGNIFICANTLY AROUND
EASTERN KENTUCKY. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM MAXING OUT
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED HEADING INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING...BUT
WE SHOULD DRY OUT FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE A SHEARING OUT COLD FRONT THAT COULD BRING A SMALL
CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL RESIDE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW LOCKED IN ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY MUCH OF TUESDAY. FURTHER
AWAY FROM THE EFFECTS OF THIS DOWNSLOPING...WE MAY SEE SOME RAIN
PUSH INTO THE BLUEGRASS OR SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY BY MIDDAY TUESDAY
OR SOMETIME IN THE AFTERNOON. WHILE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON HOW
THIS WHOLE SYSTEM EVOLVES...ONE THING SEEMS PRETTY SURE IS THAT WE
WILL HAVE TREMENDOUS LIFT AND FORCING GO ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT WORKS ACROSS THE AREA. FOR
THIS REASON...WILL GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS. THE GFS REMAINS MORE
PRONOUNCED WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDING TO A LESS WRAPPED UP
SYSTEM. THESE TWO WIDELY DIFFERENT SCENARIOS BRINGS INTO QUESTION
EXACTLY WHEN WE MIGHT SEE ANY TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA. IN FACT...THE GFS NEVER REALLY GETS COLD ENOUGH AIR INTO THE
AREA TO SUPPORT MUCH SNOW AT ALL. WHAT COLD AIR IT DOES PORTRAY DOES
NOT COINCIDE WITH AN AREA OF LIFT OR VERY DEEP MOISTURE. WHILE THE
ECMWF LOOKS A LITTLE BETTER FOR SNOW...EVEN IT HAS BEEN BACKING OFF
ON THE SNOW POTENTIAL. THIS COMBINED WITH AN UNFAVORABLE UPSLOPE
WESTERLY WIND...WILL REALLY MAKE IT HARD TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. WHILE WE MAY STILL SEE A FEW FLAKES...THINKING
THIS MAY NOT BE MUCH OF AN IMPACT FOR OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE ONE CONCERN THAT STILL EXIST IS THE HIGH WIND POTENTIAL ON
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SURGES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS ALONG
AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 45 MPH. WHILE WE
SHOULD SEE WINDS SUBSIDE SOME INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SOME WIND GUSTS
TO 35 MPH WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.

BY CHRISTMAS DAY RIDGING WILL ALREADY BE PUSHING INTO THE AREA WITH
HIGHS MAKING A NICE RECOVERY TO AROUND 50. OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER A
MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL HEAD TOWARDS THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEK. MODELS DIFFER QUITE A BIT ON TIMING...SO HAVE BACKED OFF ON
THE HIGHER POPS AND GONE WITH A LONGER PERIOD OF LOW CHANCE POPS
FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MOST LIKELY ANY RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
LIMITED TO A 3 TO 5 HOUR WINDOW...BUT PINNING IT DOWN THIS FAR OUT
IS JUST ABOUT IMPOSSIBLE. MILD WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY
BEFORE COLDER AIR RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

A FEW THINGS OF NOTE AT THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. SME HAS BEEN
EXPERIENCING SOME LIGHT FOG OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND WILL
LIKELY SEE THIS FOG PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT 13Z. AFTER THAT THE FOG
SHOULD BURN OFF. SJS...LOZ...AND JKL ARE ALL EXPERIENCING CLEAR SKIES
WITH VFR CONDITIONS. THE ONE EXCEPTION THIS MORNING IS SYM. A SWATH
OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDS HAS KEPT SYM BLANKETED WITH MVFR CIGS OF
AROUND 1.5K OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THIS TREND IN CLOUDINESS IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 16 OR 17Z BEFORE THE CLOUDS FINALLY BEGIN
TO SCATTER OUT. ALL OF THE TAF SITES SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE A FEW LOW
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN AROUND 21Z TODAY AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...AR








000
FXUS63 KJKL 211133
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
633 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 632 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE SKY COVER GRIDS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING. A
SWATH OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE STUBBORNLY PERSISTED ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THESE CLOUDS LOOK
LIKE THEY WILL PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS BASED ON CURRENT
SATELLITE TRENDS AND THE LATEST MODELS SOUNDINGS. THEREFORE...THE SKY
COVER GRIDS FROM 9 TO 12Z HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THE CLOUDINESS
UP NORTH. THE REST OF THE FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO FURTHER
CHANGES NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

A FAIRLY CALM PERIOD IS ON TAP FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST. LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. AFTER A
FEW HOURS OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...A FEW LOW AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD
OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE PAST WELL TO OUR SOUTH.
THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. AS IT DOES SO...A BIT OF
MOISTURE THAT THE SYSTEM BRINGS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO COULD SPILL
OVER OUR EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THIS MEAGER MOISTURE MAY EVEN SPAWN SOME
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS IN OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ALONG THE VIRGINIA
BORDER. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING LOW WILL MAKE
EVEN ISOLATED SHOWERS A BIT OF A STRETCH...BUT THERE COULD BE JUST
ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR A FEW TO FORM...SO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL BE CARRIED IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES FROM LATE SUNDAY
INTO THROUGH MID MORNING MORNING. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL CLOUD
COVER WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...WITH HIGHS TODAY
EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE AREA.
LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY MAY ONLY REACH THE LOWER 40S.
WITH CLOUD COVER ON THE INCREASE...AND WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST...OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS COLD AS THIS
MORNINGS FORECAST LOWS. WE SHOULD SEE MIN TEMPS ON SATURDAY MORNING
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE AREA. ONCE PERSISTENT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED ON SUNDAY...DOWNSLOPE WARMING
WILL OCCUR...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM SIGNIFICANTLY AROUND
EASTERN KENTUCKY. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM MAXING OUT
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED HEADING INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING...BUT
WE SHOULD DRY OUT FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE A SHEARING OUT COLD FRONT THAT COULD BRING A SMALL
CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL RESIDE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW LOCKED IN ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY MUCH OF TUESDAY. FURTHER
AWAY FROM THE EFFECTS OF THIS DOWNSLOPING...WE MAY SEE SOME RAIN
PUSH INTO THE BLUEGRASS OR SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY BY MIDDAY TUESDAY
OR SOMETIME IN THE AFTERNOON. WHILE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON HOW
THIS WHOLE SYSTEM EVOLVES...ONE THING SEEMS PRETTY SURE IS THAT WE
WILL HAVE TREMENDOUS LIFT AND FORCING GO ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT WORKS ACROSS THE AREA. FOR
THIS REASON...WILL GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS. THE GFS REMAINS MORE
PRONOUNCED WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDING TO A LESS WRAPPED UP
SYSTEM. THESE TWO WIDELY DIFFERENT SCENARIOS BRINGS INTO QUESTION
EXACTLY WHEN WE MIGHT SEE ANY TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA. IN FACT...THE GFS NEVER REALLY GETS COLD ENOUGH AIR INTO THE
AREA TO SUPPORT MUCH SNOW AT ALL. WHAT COLD AIR IT DOES PORTRAY DOES
NOT COINCIDE WITH AN AREA OF LIFT OR VERY DEEP MOISTURE. WHILE THE
ECMWF LOOKS A LITTLE BETTER FOR SNOW...EVEN IT HAS BEEN BACKING OFF
ON THE SNOW POTENTIAL. THIS COMBINED WITH AN UNFAVORABLE UPSLOPE
WESTERLY WIND...WILL REALLY MAKE IT HARD TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. WHILE WE MAY STILL SEE A FEW FLAKES...THINKING
THIS MAY NOT BE MUCH OF AN IMPACT FOR OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE ONE CONCERN THAT STILL EXIST IS THE HIGH WIND POTENTIAL ON
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SURGES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS ALONG
AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 45 MPH. WHILE WE
SHOULD SEE WINDS SUBSIDE SOME INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SOME WIND GUSTS
TO 35 MPH WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.

BY CHRISTMAS DAY RIDGING WILL ALREADY BE PUSHING INTO THE AREA WITH
HIGHS MAKING A NICE RECOVERY TO AROUND 50. OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER A
MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL HEAD TOWARDS THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEK. MODELS DIFFER QUITE A BIT ON TIMING...SO HAVE BACKED OFF ON
THE HIGHER POPS AND GONE WITH A LONGER PERIOD OF LOW CHANCE POPS
FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MOST LIKELY ANY RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
LIMITED TO A 3 TO 5 HOUR WINDOW...BUT PINNING IT DOWN THIS FAR OUT
IS JUST ABOUT IMPOSSIBLE. MILD WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY
BEFORE COLDER AIR RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

A FEW THINGS OF NOTE AT THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. SME HAS BEEN
EXPERIENCING SOME LIGHT FOG OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND WILL
LIKELY SEE THIS FOG PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT 13Z. AFTER THAT THE FOG
SHOULD BURN OFF. SJS...LOZ...AND JKL ARE ALL EXPERIENCING CLEAR SKIES
WITH VFR CONDITIONS. THE ONE EXCEPTION THIS MORNING IS SYM. A SWATH
OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDS HAS KEPT SYM BLANKETED WITH MVFR CIGS OF
AROUND 1.5K OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THIS TREND IN CLOUDINESS IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 16 OR 17Z BEFORE THE CLOUDS FINALLY BEGIN
TO SCATTER OUT. ALL OF THE TAF SITES SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE A FEW LOW
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN AROUND 21Z TODAY AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...AR







000
FXUS63 KJKL 211133
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
633 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 632 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE SKY COVER GRIDS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING. A
SWATH OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE STUBBORNLY PERSISTED ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THESE CLOUDS LOOK
LIKE THEY WILL PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS BASED ON CURRENT
SATELLITE TRENDS AND THE LATEST MODELS SOUNDINGS. THEREFORE...THE SKY
COVER GRIDS FROM 9 TO 12Z HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THE CLOUDINESS
UP NORTH. THE REST OF THE FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO FURTHER
CHANGES NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

A FAIRLY CALM PERIOD IS ON TAP FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST. LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. AFTER A
FEW HOURS OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...A FEW LOW AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD
OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE PAST WELL TO OUR SOUTH.
THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. AS IT DOES SO...A BIT OF
MOISTURE THAT THE SYSTEM BRINGS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO COULD SPILL
OVER OUR EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THIS MEAGER MOISTURE MAY EVEN SPAWN SOME
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS IN OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ALONG THE VIRGINIA
BORDER. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING LOW WILL MAKE
EVEN ISOLATED SHOWERS A BIT OF A STRETCH...BUT THERE COULD BE JUST
ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR A FEW TO FORM...SO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL BE CARRIED IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES FROM LATE SUNDAY
INTO THROUGH MID MORNING MORNING. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL CLOUD
COVER WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...WITH HIGHS TODAY
EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE AREA.
LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY MAY ONLY REACH THE LOWER 40S.
WITH CLOUD COVER ON THE INCREASE...AND WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST...OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS COLD AS THIS
MORNINGS FORECAST LOWS. WE SHOULD SEE MIN TEMPS ON SATURDAY MORNING
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE AREA. ONCE PERSISTENT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED ON SUNDAY...DOWNSLOPE WARMING
WILL OCCUR...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM SIGNIFICANTLY AROUND
EASTERN KENTUCKY. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM MAXING OUT
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED HEADING INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING...BUT
WE SHOULD DRY OUT FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE A SHEARING OUT COLD FRONT THAT COULD BRING A SMALL
CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL RESIDE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW LOCKED IN ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY MUCH OF TUESDAY. FURTHER
AWAY FROM THE EFFECTS OF THIS DOWNSLOPING...WE MAY SEE SOME RAIN
PUSH INTO THE BLUEGRASS OR SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY BY MIDDAY TUESDAY
OR SOMETIME IN THE AFTERNOON. WHILE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON HOW
THIS WHOLE SYSTEM EVOLVES...ONE THING SEEMS PRETTY SURE IS THAT WE
WILL HAVE TREMENDOUS LIFT AND FORCING GO ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT WORKS ACROSS THE AREA. FOR
THIS REASON...WILL GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS. THE GFS REMAINS MORE
PRONOUNCED WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDING TO A LESS WRAPPED UP
SYSTEM. THESE TWO WIDELY DIFFERENT SCENARIOS BRINGS INTO QUESTION
EXACTLY WHEN WE MIGHT SEE ANY TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA. IN FACT...THE GFS NEVER REALLY GETS COLD ENOUGH AIR INTO THE
AREA TO SUPPORT MUCH SNOW AT ALL. WHAT COLD AIR IT DOES PORTRAY DOES
NOT COINCIDE WITH AN AREA OF LIFT OR VERY DEEP MOISTURE. WHILE THE
ECMWF LOOKS A LITTLE BETTER FOR SNOW...EVEN IT HAS BEEN BACKING OFF
ON THE SNOW POTENTIAL. THIS COMBINED WITH AN UNFAVORABLE UPSLOPE
WESTERLY WIND...WILL REALLY MAKE IT HARD TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. WHILE WE MAY STILL SEE A FEW FLAKES...THINKING
THIS MAY NOT BE MUCH OF AN IMPACT FOR OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE ONE CONCERN THAT STILL EXIST IS THE HIGH WIND POTENTIAL ON
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SURGES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS ALONG
AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 45 MPH. WHILE WE
SHOULD SEE WINDS SUBSIDE SOME INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SOME WIND GUSTS
TO 35 MPH WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.

BY CHRISTMAS DAY RIDGING WILL ALREADY BE PUSHING INTO THE AREA WITH
HIGHS MAKING A NICE RECOVERY TO AROUND 50. OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER A
MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL HEAD TOWARDS THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEK. MODELS DIFFER QUITE A BIT ON TIMING...SO HAVE BACKED OFF ON
THE HIGHER POPS AND GONE WITH A LONGER PERIOD OF LOW CHANCE POPS
FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MOST LIKELY ANY RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
LIMITED TO A 3 TO 5 HOUR WINDOW...BUT PINNING IT DOWN THIS FAR OUT
IS JUST ABOUT IMPOSSIBLE. MILD WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY
BEFORE COLDER AIR RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

A FEW THINGS OF NOTE AT THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. SME HAS BEEN
EXPERIENCING SOME LIGHT FOG OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND WILL
LIKELY SEE THIS FOG PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT 13Z. AFTER THAT THE FOG
SHOULD BURN OFF. SJS...LOZ...AND JKL ARE ALL EXPERIENCING CLEAR SKIES
WITH VFR CONDITIONS. THE ONE EXCEPTION THIS MORNING IS SYM. A SWATH
OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDS HAS KEPT SYM BLANKETED WITH MVFR CIGS OF
AROUND 1.5K OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THIS TREND IN CLOUDINESS IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 16 OR 17Z BEFORE THE CLOUDS FINALLY BEGIN
TO SCATTER OUT. ALL OF THE TAF SITES SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE A FEW LOW
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN AROUND 21Z TODAY AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...AR








000
FXUS63 KJKL 210810
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
310 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

A FAIRLY CALM PERIOD IS ON TAP FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST. LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. AFTER A
FEW HOURS OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...A FEW LOW AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD
OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE PAST WELL TO OUR SOUTH.
THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. AS IT DOES SO...A BIT OF
MOISTURE THAT THE SYSTEM BRINGS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO COULD SPILL
OVER OUR EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THIS MEAGER MOISTURE MAY EVEN SPAWN SOME
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS IN OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ALONG THE VIRGINIA
BORDER. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING LOW WILL MAKE
EVEN ISOLATED SHOWERS A BIT OF A STRETCH...BUT THERE COULD BE JUST
ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR A FEW TO FORM...SO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL BE CARRIED IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES FROM LATE SUNDAY
INTO THROUGH MID MORNING MORNING. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL CLOUD
COVER WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...WITH HIGHS TODAY
EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE AREA.
LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY MAY ONLY REACH THE LOWER 40S.
WITH CLOUD COVER ON THE INCREASE...AND WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST...OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS COLD AS THIS
MORNINGS FORECAST LOWS. WE SHOULD SEE MIN TEMPS ON SATURDAY MORNING
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE AREA. ONCE PERSISTENT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED ON SUNDAY...DOWNSLOPE WARMING
WILL OCCUR...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM SIGNIFICANTLY AROUND
EASTERN KENTUCKY. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM MAXING OUT
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED HEADING INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING...BUT
WE SHOULD DRY OUT FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE A SHEARING OUT COLD FRONT THAT COULD BRING A SMALL
CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL RESIDE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW LOCKED IN ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY MUCH OF TUESDAY. FURTHER
AWAY FROM THE EFFECTS OF THIS DOWNSLOPING...WE MAY SEE SOME RAIN
PUSH INTO THE BLUEGRASS OR SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY BY MIDDAY TUESDAY
OR SOMETIME IN THE AFTERNOON. WHILE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON HOW
THIS WHOLE SYSTEM EVOLVES...ONE THING SEEMS PRETTY SURE IS THAT WE
WILL HAVE TREMENDOUS LIFT AND FORCING GO ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT WORKS ACROSS THE AREA. FOR
THIS REASON...WILL GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS. THE GFS REMAINS MORE
PRONOUNCED WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDING TO A LESS WRAPPED UP
SYSTEM. THESE TWO WIDELY DIFFERENT SCENARIOS BRINGS INTO QUESTION
EXACTLY WHEN WE MIGHT SEE ANY TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA. IN FACT...THE GFS NEVER REALLY GETS COLD ENOUGH AIR INTO THE
AREA TO SUPPORT MUCH SNOW AT ALL. WHAT COLD AIR IT DOES PORTRAY DOES
NOT COINCIDE WITH AN AREA OF LIFT OR VERY DEEP MOISTURE. WHILE THE
ECMWF LOOKS A LITTLE BETTER FOR SNOW...EVEN IT HAS BEEN BACKING OFF
ON THE SNOW POTENTIAL. THIS COMBINED WITH AN UNFAVORABLE UPSLOPE
WESTERLY WIND...WILL REALLY MAKE IT HARD TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. WHILE WE MAY STILL SEE A FEW FLAKES...THINKING
THIS MAY NOT BE MUCH OF AN IMPACT FOR OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE ONE CONCERN THAT STILL EXIST IS THE HIGH WIND POTENTIAL ON
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SURGES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS ALONG
AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 45 MPH. WHILE WE
SHOULD SEE WINDS SUBSIDE SOME INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SOME WIND GUSTS
TO 35 MPH WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.

BY CHRISTMAS DAY RIDGING WILL ALREADY BE PUSHING INTO THE AREA WITH
HIGHS MAKING A NICE RECOVERY TO AROUND 50. OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER A
MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL HEAD TOWARDS THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEK. MODELS DIFFER QUITE A BIT ON TIMING...SO HAVE BACKED OFF ON
THE HIGHER POPS AND GONE WITH A LONGER PERIOD OF LOW CHANCE POPS
FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MOST LIKELY ANY RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
LIMITED TO A 3 TO 5 HOUR WINDOW...BUT PINNING IT DOWN THIS FAR OUT
IS JUST ABOUT IMPOSSIBLE. MILD WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY
BEFORE COLDER AIR RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

THE TAF SITES AT JKL AND SJS WILL EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. SYM WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
WITH FOG AND AN OVC DECK OF STRATUS CLOUDS THROUGH 7Z OR SO. BASED ON
TRENDS OBSERVED IN THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE CLOUDS AT SYM
SHOULD BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT NICELY BY 8Z...GIVING WAY TO CLEAR SKIES
BY 9Z. A FEW LOW AND HIGHS CLOUDS MAY MAKE THEIR WAY BACK INTO
EASTERN KENTUCKY AROUND 12Z TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...AR







000
FXUS63 KJKL 210536
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1236 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1028 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

AS EXPECTED THIS EVENING...MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY HAS DISSIPATED WHILE SOME LINGERING LOW
LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTH IS STILL HANGING AROUND. THIS WILL
ALSO ALLOW FOR VALLEY TEMPS TO DROP A BIT LOWER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
THE BLUEGRASS COUNTIES WHERE LINGERING CLOUD COVER FROM DURING THE
DAY HAS KEPT TEMPS DOWN INTO THIS EVENING. SO HAVE LOWERED LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER. HAVE ALSO NUDGED HIGH TEMPS DOWN A
DEGREE FOR TODAY DUE TO THE COOLER START TO THE DAY AND NO
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY EXPECTED. A NEW ZFP HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THESE UPDATES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 706 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THIS EVENING APPEARS TO BE WITH CLOUD COVER
THAT IS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE
THAT IS EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST AND BEHIND THIS TO THE WEST...WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS NUDGING INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO INTERIM
AFFECT THE HOURLY TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WILL ADJUST
ACCORDING. ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH...WHERE THIS AREA WILL LIKELY
CLEAR OUT BEFORE AREAS NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY DO. SO MADE A
FEW TWEAKS TO HOURLY TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER. THE REST OF THE FORECAST
IS GOOD TO GO AND A NEW ZFP WILL NOT BE REQUIRED WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY RESIDING ACROSS THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS...WHILE WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE ALIGNED
ALONG THE GULF. ALOFT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXITING TOWARDS NEW
ENGLAND...WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING NOSING IN ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE RIDGING IS ALLOWING
FOR SOME DECENT CLEARING ACROSS WESTERN KY/TN. THIS WILL LIKELY WORK
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOWS
BACK INTO THE 20S...WITH LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF I-75 AS WELL AS
THE BLUEGRASS SEEING THE COLDER READINGS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL INTO SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS RETURNING
TO NEAR SEASONAL VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. MEANWHILE...THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE AMPLIFYING AS DEEPER TROUGHING TAKES SHAPE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
RIDE FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION TO ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
SUNDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOSE ITS GRIP ACROSS THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE RETURN AND SOME
INFLUENCE FROM A WEAKER SOUTHEASTERN CONUS SURFACE SYSTEM. AS
SUCH...LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE ESTABLISHED EARLY ON...WITH SOME
UPPER 20S LIKELY IN THE NORTHEASTERN VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
WARM FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT...AS LOW CLOUDS INCREASE
QUICKLY...AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ENGAGE. WILL MAINTAIN THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO THREATEN SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY TOWARDS
DAWN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE THE STORY AS WE MOVE INTO CHRISTMAS
WEEK. THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE
CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LINE. MODELS CONTINUE TO LESSEN THE
INFLUENCE ON EASTERN KY. THEREFORE THINKING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN SE FLOW WILL
SEE A CONTINUED WARMING TREND AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM OF CONCERN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL GENERALLY MAKE INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.

NOW THE SYSTEM MOST HAVE BEEN WATCHING DUE TO THE POTENTIAL
IMPLICATIONS FOR CHRISTMAS TRAVEL PLANS. HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL
BEGIN SETTING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AS WE MOVE INTO TUESDAY. POPS
WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS MOISTURE AND CLOUDS STREAM INTO
THE REGION. ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL AID IN
DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTH ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS LATER
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE DISCONTINUITY IN
THE MODELS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS
DEVELOPS A CUTOFF LOW AT THE 500MB LEVEL THAT TRACKS N INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ALONG WITH THE SURFACE LOW BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...HOWEVER THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE CUTOFF ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST BUT HAS A SIMILAR
TRACK HOWEVER IT TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY WEDNESDAY. GIVEN
THIS WILL LEAN TOWARD THE BLEND FOR GUIDANCE DURING THIS PERIOD AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO RESOLVE THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM.

SO WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...MUCH OF THE BEGINNING
STAGES OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ALL RAIN AS STRONG JET ENERGY CONTINUES
TO SURGE WARM AND MOIST AIR UP FROM THE S AND SW ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE QUESTION REALLY BECOMES HOW QUICKLY
DO WE GET COLD AIR INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE MOISTURE
IS CUTOFF. THE GFS HAS SLOWED THE TIMING OF COLD AIR COMPARED TO THE
12Z ECMWF. COMPARING THE GFS TO PREVIOUS RUNS THE COLDER AIR IS
SLOWER TO MAKE IT INTO THE REGION. EITHER WAY IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE
WILL SEE A CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATER WEDNESDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING THROUGH THE DAY WITH 24 HOUR
HIGHS BEING REACH IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. RIGHT NOW IT WOULD
APPEAR THAT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP BELOW FREEZING UNTIL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...SO INITIALLY THINKING THIS CHANGE OVER PERIOD WILL LEAD TO
LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION GIVEN WARMER GROUND TEMPS. THE ISSUE
BECOMES MOVING INTO OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO AND BELOW
FREEZING. MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS DO INDICATE ABRUPT DRYING AS
WE MOVE INTO LATER WEDNESDAY THEREFORE WOULD EXPECT MORE OF A WRAP
AROUND SNOW SHOWER SCENARIO BY THIS POINT. THIS WOULD LEAD TO LITTLE
IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS HOWEVER SLICK SPOTS COULD STILL BE A ISSUE GIVEN
THE COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE CAVEAT HERE WOULD BE THE
WINDY CONDITIONS WOULD DRY THE REGION OUT AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES.
INTO THE REGION

THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIE DOWN BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. BOTH THE MODELS HAVE
COME INTO SOME ALIGNMENT IN BRINGING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. RIGHT NOW THE BLEND BRINGING
CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

THE TAF SITES AT JKL AND SJS WILL EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. SYM WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
WITH FOG AND AN OVC DECK OF STRATUS CLOUDS THROUGH 7Z OR SO. BASED ON
TRENDS OBSERVED IN THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE CLOUDS AT SYM
SHOULD BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT NICELY BY 8Z...GIVING WAY TO CLEAR SKIES
BY 9Z. A FEW LOW AND HIGHS CLOUDS MAY MAKE THEIR WAY BACK INTO
EASTERN KENTUCKY AROUND 12Z TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...AR







000
FXUS63 KJKL 210536
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1236 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1028 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

AS EXPECTED THIS EVENING...MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY HAS DISSIPATED WHILE SOME LINGERING LOW
LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTH IS STILL HANGING AROUND. THIS WILL
ALSO ALLOW FOR VALLEY TEMPS TO DROP A BIT LOWER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
THE BLUEGRASS COUNTIES WHERE LINGERING CLOUD COVER FROM DURING THE
DAY HAS KEPT TEMPS DOWN INTO THIS EVENING. SO HAVE LOWERED LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER. HAVE ALSO NUDGED HIGH TEMPS DOWN A
DEGREE FOR TODAY DUE TO THE COOLER START TO THE DAY AND NO
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY EXPECTED. A NEW ZFP HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THESE UPDATES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 706 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THIS EVENING APPEARS TO BE WITH CLOUD COVER
THAT IS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE
THAT IS EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST AND BEHIND THIS TO THE WEST...WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS NUDGING INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO INTERIM
AFFECT THE HOURLY TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WILL ADJUST
ACCORDING. ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH...WHERE THIS AREA WILL LIKELY
CLEAR OUT BEFORE AREAS NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY DO. SO MADE A
FEW TWEAKS TO HOURLY TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER. THE REST OF THE FORECAST
IS GOOD TO GO AND A NEW ZFP WILL NOT BE REQUIRED WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY RESIDING ACROSS THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS...WHILE WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE ALIGNED
ALONG THE GULF. ALOFT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXITING TOWARDS NEW
ENGLAND...WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING NOSING IN ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE RIDGING IS ALLOWING
FOR SOME DECENT CLEARING ACROSS WESTERN KY/TN. THIS WILL LIKELY WORK
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOWS
BACK INTO THE 20S...WITH LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF I-75 AS WELL AS
THE BLUEGRASS SEEING THE COLDER READINGS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL INTO SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS RETURNING
TO NEAR SEASONAL VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. MEANWHILE...THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE AMPLIFYING AS DEEPER TROUGHING TAKES SHAPE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
RIDE FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION TO ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
SUNDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOSE ITS GRIP ACROSS THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE RETURN AND SOME
INFLUENCE FROM A WEAKER SOUTHEASTERN CONUS SURFACE SYSTEM. AS
SUCH...LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE ESTABLISHED EARLY ON...WITH SOME
UPPER 20S LIKELY IN THE NORTHEASTERN VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
WARM FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT...AS LOW CLOUDS INCREASE
QUICKLY...AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ENGAGE. WILL MAINTAIN THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO THREATEN SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY TOWARDS
DAWN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE THE STORY AS WE MOVE INTO CHRISTMAS
WEEK. THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE
CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LINE. MODELS CONTINUE TO LESSEN THE
INFLUENCE ON EASTERN KY. THEREFORE THINKING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN SE FLOW WILL
SEE A CONTINUED WARMING TREND AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM OF CONCERN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL GENERALLY MAKE INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.

NOW THE SYSTEM MOST HAVE BEEN WATCHING DUE TO THE POTENTIAL
IMPLICATIONS FOR CHRISTMAS TRAVEL PLANS. HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL
BEGIN SETTING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AS WE MOVE INTO TUESDAY. POPS
WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS MOISTURE AND CLOUDS STREAM INTO
THE REGION. ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL AID IN
DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTH ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS LATER
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE DISCONTINUITY IN
THE MODELS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS
DEVELOPS A CUTOFF LOW AT THE 500MB LEVEL THAT TRACKS N INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ALONG WITH THE SURFACE LOW BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...HOWEVER THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE CUTOFF ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST BUT HAS A SIMILAR
TRACK HOWEVER IT TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY WEDNESDAY. GIVEN
THIS WILL LEAN TOWARD THE BLEND FOR GUIDANCE DURING THIS PERIOD AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO RESOLVE THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM.

SO WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...MUCH OF THE BEGINNING
STAGES OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ALL RAIN AS STRONG JET ENERGY CONTINUES
TO SURGE WARM AND MOIST AIR UP FROM THE S AND SW ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE QUESTION REALLY BECOMES HOW QUICKLY
DO WE GET COLD AIR INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE MOISTURE
IS CUTOFF. THE GFS HAS SLOWED THE TIMING OF COLD AIR COMPARED TO THE
12Z ECMWF. COMPARING THE GFS TO PREVIOUS RUNS THE COLDER AIR IS
SLOWER TO MAKE IT INTO THE REGION. EITHER WAY IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE
WILL SEE A CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATER WEDNESDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING THROUGH THE DAY WITH 24 HOUR
HIGHS BEING REACH IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. RIGHT NOW IT WOULD
APPEAR THAT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP BELOW FREEZING UNTIL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...SO INITIALLY THINKING THIS CHANGE OVER PERIOD WILL LEAD TO
LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION GIVEN WARMER GROUND TEMPS. THE ISSUE
BECOMES MOVING INTO OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO AND BELOW
FREEZING. MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS DO INDICATE ABRUPT DRYING AS
WE MOVE INTO LATER WEDNESDAY THEREFORE WOULD EXPECT MORE OF A WRAP
AROUND SNOW SHOWER SCENARIO BY THIS POINT. THIS WOULD LEAD TO LITTLE
IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS HOWEVER SLICK SPOTS COULD STILL BE A ISSUE GIVEN
THE COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE CAVEAT HERE WOULD BE THE
WINDY CONDITIONS WOULD DRY THE REGION OUT AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES.
INTO THE REGION

THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIE DOWN BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. BOTH THE MODELS HAVE
COME INTO SOME ALIGNMENT IN BRINGING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. RIGHT NOW THE BLEND BRINGING
CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

THE TAF SITES AT JKL AND SJS WILL EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. SYM WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
WITH FOG AND AN OVC DECK OF STRATUS CLOUDS THROUGH 7Z OR SO. BASED ON
TRENDS OBSERVED IN THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE CLOUDS AT SYM
SHOULD BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT NICELY BY 8Z...GIVING WAY TO CLEAR SKIES
BY 9Z. A FEW LOW AND HIGHS CLOUDS MAY MAKE THEIR WAY BACK INTO
EASTERN KENTUCKY AROUND 12Z TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...AR








000
FXUS63 KJKL 210329
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1029 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1028 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

AS EXPECTED THIS EVENING...MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY HAS DISSIPATED WHILE SOME LINGERING LOW
LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTH IS STILL HANGING AROUND. THIS WILL
ALSO ALLOW FOR VALLEY TEMPS TO DROP A BIT LOWER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
THE BLUEGRASS COUNTIES WHERE LINGERING CLOUD COVER FROM DURING THE
DAY HAS KEPT TEMPS DOWN INTO THIS EVENING. SO HAVE LOWERED LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER. HAVE ALSO NUDGED HIGH TEMPS DOWN A
DEGREE FOR TODAY DUE TO THE COOLER START TO THE DAY AND NO
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY EXPECTED. A NEW ZFP HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THESE UPDATES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 706 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THIS EVENING APPEARS TO BE WITH CLOUD COVER
THAT IS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE
THAT IS EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST AND BEHIND THIS TO THE WEST...WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS NUDGING INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO INTERIM
AFFECT THE HOURLY TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WILL ADJUST
ACCORDING. ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH...WHERE THIS AREA WILL LIKELY
CLEAR OUT BEFORE AREAS NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY DO. SO MADE A
FEW TWEAKS TO HOURLY TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER. THE REST OF THE FORECAST
IS GOOD TO GO AND A NEW ZFP WILL NOT BE REQUIRED WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY RESIDING ACROSS THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS...WHILE WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE ALIGNED
ALONG THE GULF. ALOFT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXITING TOWARDS NEW
ENGLAND...WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING NOSING IN ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE RIDGING IS ALLOWING
FOR SOME DECENT CLEARING ACROSS WESTERN KY/TN. THIS WILL LIKELY WORK
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOWS
BACK INTO THE 20S...WITH LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF I-75 AS WELL AS
THE BLUEGRASS SEEING THE COLDER READINGS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL INTO SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS RETURNING
TO NEAR SEASONAL VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. MEANWHILE...THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE AMPLIFYING AS DEEPER TROUGHING TAKES SHAPE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
RIDE FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION TO ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
SUNDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOSE ITS GRIP ACROSS THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE RETURN AND SOME
INFLUECE FROM A WEAKER SOUTHEASTERN CONUS SURFACE SYSTEM. AS
SUCH...LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE ESTABLISHED EARLY ON...WITH SOME
UPPER 20S LIKELY IN THE NORTHEASTERN VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
WARM FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT...AS LOW CLOUDS INCREASE
QUICKLY...AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ENGAGE. WILL MAINTAIN THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO THREATEN SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY TOWARDS
DAWN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE THE STORY AS WE MOVE INTO CHRISTMAS
WEEK. THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE
CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LINE. MODELS CONTINUE TO LESSEN THE
INFLUENCE ON EASTERN KY. THEREFORE THINKING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN SE FLOW WILL
SEE A CONTINUED WARMING TREND AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM OF CONCERN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL GENERALLY MAKE INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.

NOW THE SYSTEM MOST HAVE BEEN WATCHING DUE TO THE POTENTIAL
IMPLICATIONS FOR CHRISTMAS TRAVEL PLANS. HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL
BEGIN SETTING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AS WE MOVE INTO TUESDAY. POPS
WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS MOISTURE AND CLOUDS STREAM INTO
THE REGION. ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL AID IN
DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTH ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS LATER
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE DISCONTINUITY IN
THE MODELS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS
DEVELOPS A CUTOFF LOW AT THE 500MB LEVEL THAT TRACKS N INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ALONG WITH THE SURFACE LOW BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...HOWEVER THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE CUTOFF ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST BUT HAS A SIMILAR
TRACK HOWEVER IT TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY WEDNESDAY. GIVEN
THIS WILL LEAN TOWARD THE BLEND FOR GUIDANCE DURING THIS PERIOD AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO RESOLVE THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM.

SO WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...MUCH OF THE BEGINNING
STAGES OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ALL RAIN AS STRONG JET ENERGY CONTINUES
TO SURGE WARM AND MOIST AIR UP FROM THE S AND SW ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE QUESTION REALLY BECOMES HOW QUICKLY
DO WE GET COLD AIR INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE MOISTURE
IS CUTOFF. THE GFS HAS SLOWED THE TIMING OF COLD AIR COMPARED TO THE
12Z ECMWF. COMPARING THE GFS TO PREVIOUS RUNS THE COLDER AIR IS
SLOWER TO MAKE IT INTO THE REGION. EITHER WAY IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE
WILL SEE A CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATER WEDNESDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING THROUGH THE DAY WITH 24 HOUR
HIGHS BEING REACH IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. RIGHT NOW IT WOULD
APPEAR THAT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP BELOW FREEZING UNTIL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...SO INITIALLY THINKING THIS CHANGE OVER PERIOD WILL LEAD TO
LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION GIVEN WARMER GROUND TEMPS. THE ISSUE
BECOMES MOVING INTO OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO AND BELOW
FREEZING. MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS DO INDICATE ABRUPT DRYING AS
WE MOVE INTO LATER WEDNESDAY THEREFORE WOULD EXPECT MORE OF A WRAP
AROUND SNOW SHOWER SCENARIO BY THIS POINT. THIS WOULD LEAD TO LITTLE
IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS HOWEVER SLICK SPOTS COULD STILL BE A ISSUE GIVEN
THE COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE CAVEAT HERE WOULD BE THE
WINDY CONDITIONS WOULD DRY THE REGION OUT AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES.
INTO THE REGION

THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIE DOWN BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. BOTH THE MODELS HAVE
COME INTO SOME ALIGNMENT IN BRINGING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. RIGHT NOW THE BLEND BRINGING
CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 706 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

MOST PLACES TONIGHT WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER...SOME LOWER CEILINGS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE CWA BUT THIS CLOUD COVER IS DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
HAVE PUT SOME MVFR CEILINGS IN THE NORTH AND CLEARING OUT THE AREA IN
THE SOUTH AS THIS CLOUD COVER MOVES OUT TO THE EAST. AT SME AND
LOZ...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THEM CLEARING OUT THAT
SOME FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS DAWN. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER







000
FXUS63 KJKL 210329
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1029 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1028 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

AS EXPECTED THIS EVENING...MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY HAS DISSIPATED WHILE SOME LINGERING LOW
LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTH IS STILL HANGING AROUND. THIS WILL
ALSO ALLOW FOR VALLEY TEMPS TO DROP A BIT LOWER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
THE BLUEGRASS COUNTIES WHERE LINGERING CLOUD COVER FROM DURING THE
DAY HAS KEPT TEMPS DOWN INTO THIS EVENING. SO HAVE LOWERED LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER. HAVE ALSO NUDGED HIGH TEMPS DOWN A
DEGREE FOR TODAY DUE TO THE COOLER START TO THE DAY AND NO
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY EXPECTED. A NEW ZFP HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THESE UPDATES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 706 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THIS EVENING APPEARS TO BE WITH CLOUD COVER
THAT IS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE
THAT IS EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST AND BEHIND THIS TO THE WEST...WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS NUDGING INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO INTERIM
AFFECT THE HOURLY TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WILL ADJUST
ACCORDING. ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH...WHERE THIS AREA WILL LIKELY
CLEAR OUT BEFORE AREAS NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY DO. SO MADE A
FEW TWEAKS TO HOURLY TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER. THE REST OF THE FORECAST
IS GOOD TO GO AND A NEW ZFP WILL NOT BE REQUIRED WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY RESIDING ACROSS THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS...WHILE WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE ALIGNED
ALONG THE GULF. ALOFT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXITING TOWARDS NEW
ENGLAND...WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING NOSING IN ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE RIDGING IS ALLOWING
FOR SOME DECENT CLEARING ACROSS WESTERN KY/TN. THIS WILL LIKELY WORK
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOWS
BACK INTO THE 20S...WITH LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF I-75 AS WELL AS
THE BLUEGRASS SEEING THE COLDER READINGS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL INTO SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS RETURNING
TO NEAR SEASONAL VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. MEANWHILE...THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE AMPLIFYING AS DEEPER TROUGHING TAKES SHAPE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
RIDE FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION TO ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
SUNDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOSE ITS GRIP ACROSS THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE RETURN AND SOME
INFLUECE FROM A WEAKER SOUTHEASTERN CONUS SURFACE SYSTEM. AS
SUCH...LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE ESTABLISHED EARLY ON...WITH SOME
UPPER 20S LIKELY IN THE NORTHEASTERN VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
WARM FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT...AS LOW CLOUDS INCREASE
QUICKLY...AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ENGAGE. WILL MAINTAIN THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO THREATEN SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY TOWARDS
DAWN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE THE STORY AS WE MOVE INTO CHRISTMAS
WEEK. THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE
CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LINE. MODELS CONTINUE TO LESSEN THE
INFLUENCE ON EASTERN KY. THEREFORE THINKING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN SE FLOW WILL
SEE A CONTINUED WARMING TREND AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM OF CONCERN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL GENERALLY MAKE INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.

NOW THE SYSTEM MOST HAVE BEEN WATCHING DUE TO THE POTENTIAL
IMPLICATIONS FOR CHRISTMAS TRAVEL PLANS. HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL
BEGIN SETTING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AS WE MOVE INTO TUESDAY. POPS
WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS MOISTURE AND CLOUDS STREAM INTO
THE REGION. ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL AID IN
DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTH ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS LATER
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE DISCONTINUITY IN
THE MODELS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS
DEVELOPS A CUTOFF LOW AT THE 500MB LEVEL THAT TRACKS N INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ALONG WITH THE SURFACE LOW BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...HOWEVER THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE CUTOFF ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST BUT HAS A SIMILAR
TRACK HOWEVER IT TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY WEDNESDAY. GIVEN
THIS WILL LEAN TOWARD THE BLEND FOR GUIDANCE DURING THIS PERIOD AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO RESOLVE THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM.

SO WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...MUCH OF THE BEGINNING
STAGES OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ALL RAIN AS STRONG JET ENERGY CONTINUES
TO SURGE WARM AND MOIST AIR UP FROM THE S AND SW ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE QUESTION REALLY BECOMES HOW QUICKLY
DO WE GET COLD AIR INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE MOISTURE
IS CUTOFF. THE GFS HAS SLOWED THE TIMING OF COLD AIR COMPARED TO THE
12Z ECMWF. COMPARING THE GFS TO PREVIOUS RUNS THE COLDER AIR IS
SLOWER TO MAKE IT INTO THE REGION. EITHER WAY IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE
WILL SEE A CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATER WEDNESDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING THROUGH THE DAY WITH 24 HOUR
HIGHS BEING REACH IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. RIGHT NOW IT WOULD
APPEAR THAT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP BELOW FREEZING UNTIL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...SO INITIALLY THINKING THIS CHANGE OVER PERIOD WILL LEAD TO
LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION GIVEN WARMER GROUND TEMPS. THE ISSUE
BECOMES MOVING INTO OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO AND BELOW
FREEZING. MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS DO INDICATE ABRUPT DRYING AS
WE MOVE INTO LATER WEDNESDAY THEREFORE WOULD EXPECT MORE OF A WRAP
AROUND SNOW SHOWER SCENARIO BY THIS POINT. THIS WOULD LEAD TO LITTLE
IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS HOWEVER SLICK SPOTS COULD STILL BE A ISSUE GIVEN
THE COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE CAVEAT HERE WOULD BE THE
WINDY CONDITIONS WOULD DRY THE REGION OUT AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES.
INTO THE REGION

THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIE DOWN BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. BOTH THE MODELS HAVE
COME INTO SOME ALIGNMENT IN BRINGING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. RIGHT NOW THE BLEND BRINGING
CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 706 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

MOST PLACES TONIGHT WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER...SOME LOWER CEILINGS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE CWA BUT THIS CLOUD COVER IS DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
HAVE PUT SOME MVFR CEILINGS IN THE NORTH AND CLEARING OUT THE AREA IN
THE SOUTH AS THIS CLOUD COVER MOVES OUT TO THE EAST. AT SME AND
LOZ...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THEM CLEARING OUT THAT
SOME FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS DAWN. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER








000
FXUS63 KJKL 210329
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1029 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1028 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

AS EXPECTED THIS EVENING...MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY HAS DISSIPATED WHILE SOME LINGERING LOW
LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTH IS STILL HANGING AROUND. THIS WILL
ALSO ALLOW FOR VALLEY TEMPS TO DROP A BIT LOWER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
THE BLUEGRASS COUNTIES WHERE LINGERING CLOUD COVER FROM DURING THE
DAY HAS KEPT TEMPS DOWN INTO THIS EVENING. SO HAVE LOWERED LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER. HAVE ALSO NUDGED HIGH TEMPS DOWN A
DEGREE FOR TODAY DUE TO THE COOLER START TO THE DAY AND NO
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY EXPECTED. A NEW ZFP HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THESE UPDATES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 706 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THIS EVENING APPEARS TO BE WITH CLOUD COVER
THAT IS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE
THAT IS EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST AND BEHIND THIS TO THE WEST...WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS NUDGING INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO INTERIM
AFFECT THE HOURLY TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WILL ADJUST
ACCORDING. ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH...WHERE THIS AREA WILL LIKELY
CLEAR OUT BEFORE AREAS NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY DO. SO MADE A
FEW TWEAKS TO HOURLY TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER. THE REST OF THE FORECAST
IS GOOD TO GO AND A NEW ZFP WILL NOT BE REQUIRED WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY RESIDING ACROSS THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS...WHILE WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE ALIGNED
ALONG THE GULF. ALOFT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXITING TOWARDS NEW
ENGLAND...WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING NOSING IN ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE RIDGING IS ALLOWING
FOR SOME DECENT CLEARING ACROSS WESTERN KY/TN. THIS WILL LIKELY WORK
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOWS
BACK INTO THE 20S...WITH LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF I-75 AS WELL AS
THE BLUEGRASS SEEING THE COLDER READINGS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL INTO SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS RETURNING
TO NEAR SEASONAL VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. MEANWHILE...THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE AMPLIFYING AS DEEPER TROUGHING TAKES SHAPE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
RIDE FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION TO ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
SUNDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOSE ITS GRIP ACROSS THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE RETURN AND SOME
INFLUECE FROM A WEAKER SOUTHEASTERN CONUS SURFACE SYSTEM. AS
SUCH...LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE ESTABLISHED EARLY ON...WITH SOME
UPPER 20S LIKELY IN THE NORTHEASTERN VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
WARM FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT...AS LOW CLOUDS INCREASE
QUICKLY...AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ENGAGE. WILL MAINTAIN THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO THREATEN SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY TOWARDS
DAWN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE THE STORY AS WE MOVE INTO CHRISTMAS
WEEK. THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE
CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LINE. MODELS CONTINUE TO LESSEN THE
INFLUENCE ON EASTERN KY. THEREFORE THINKING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN SE FLOW WILL
SEE A CONTINUED WARMING TREND AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM OF CONCERN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL GENERALLY MAKE INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.

NOW THE SYSTEM MOST HAVE BEEN WATCHING DUE TO THE POTENTIAL
IMPLICATIONS FOR CHRISTMAS TRAVEL PLANS. HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL
BEGIN SETTING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AS WE MOVE INTO TUESDAY. POPS
WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS MOISTURE AND CLOUDS STREAM INTO
THE REGION. ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL AID IN
DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTH ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS LATER
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE DISCONTINUITY IN
THE MODELS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS
DEVELOPS A CUTOFF LOW AT THE 500MB LEVEL THAT TRACKS N INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ALONG WITH THE SURFACE LOW BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...HOWEVER THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE CUTOFF ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST BUT HAS A SIMILAR
TRACK HOWEVER IT TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY WEDNESDAY. GIVEN
THIS WILL LEAN TOWARD THE BLEND FOR GUIDANCE DURING THIS PERIOD AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO RESOLVE THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM.

SO WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...MUCH OF THE BEGINNING
STAGES OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ALL RAIN AS STRONG JET ENERGY CONTINUES
TO SURGE WARM AND MOIST AIR UP FROM THE S AND SW ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE QUESTION REALLY BECOMES HOW QUICKLY
DO WE GET COLD AIR INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE MOISTURE
IS CUTOFF. THE GFS HAS SLOWED THE TIMING OF COLD AIR COMPARED TO THE
12Z ECMWF. COMPARING THE GFS TO PREVIOUS RUNS THE COLDER AIR IS
SLOWER TO MAKE IT INTO THE REGION. EITHER WAY IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE
WILL SEE A CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATER WEDNESDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING THROUGH THE DAY WITH 24 HOUR
HIGHS BEING REACH IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. RIGHT NOW IT WOULD
APPEAR THAT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP BELOW FREEZING UNTIL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...SO INITIALLY THINKING THIS CHANGE OVER PERIOD WILL LEAD TO
LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION GIVEN WARMER GROUND TEMPS. THE ISSUE
BECOMES MOVING INTO OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO AND BELOW
FREEZING. MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS DO INDICATE ABRUPT DRYING AS
WE MOVE INTO LATER WEDNESDAY THEREFORE WOULD EXPECT MORE OF A WRAP
AROUND SNOW SHOWER SCENARIO BY THIS POINT. THIS WOULD LEAD TO LITTLE
IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS HOWEVER SLICK SPOTS COULD STILL BE A ISSUE GIVEN
THE COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE CAVEAT HERE WOULD BE THE
WINDY CONDITIONS WOULD DRY THE REGION OUT AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES.
INTO THE REGION

THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIE DOWN BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. BOTH THE MODELS HAVE
COME INTO SOME ALIGNMENT IN BRINGING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. RIGHT NOW THE BLEND BRINGING
CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 706 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

MOST PLACES TONIGHT WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER...SOME LOWER CEILINGS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE CWA BUT THIS CLOUD COVER IS DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
HAVE PUT SOME MVFR CEILINGS IN THE NORTH AND CLEARING OUT THE AREA IN
THE SOUTH AS THIS CLOUD COVER MOVES OUT TO THE EAST. AT SME AND
LOZ...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THEM CLEARING OUT THAT
SOME FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS DAWN. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER








000
FXUS63 KJKL 210329
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1029 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1028 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

AS EXPECTED THIS EVENING...MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY HAS DISSIPATED WHILE SOME LINGERING LOW
LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTH IS STILL HANGING AROUND. THIS WILL
ALSO ALLOW FOR VALLEY TEMPS TO DROP A BIT LOWER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
THE BLUEGRASS COUNTIES WHERE LINGERING CLOUD COVER FROM DURING THE
DAY HAS KEPT TEMPS DOWN INTO THIS EVENING. SO HAVE LOWERED LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER. HAVE ALSO NUDGED HIGH TEMPS DOWN A
DEGREE FOR TODAY DUE TO THE COOLER START TO THE DAY AND NO
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY EXPECTED. A NEW ZFP HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THESE UPDATES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 706 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THIS EVENING APPEARS TO BE WITH CLOUD COVER
THAT IS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE
THAT IS EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST AND BEHIND THIS TO THE WEST...WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS NUDGING INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO INTERIM
AFFECT THE HOURLY TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WILL ADJUST
ACCORDING. ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH...WHERE THIS AREA WILL LIKELY
CLEAR OUT BEFORE AREAS NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY DO. SO MADE A
FEW TWEAKS TO HOURLY TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER. THE REST OF THE FORECAST
IS GOOD TO GO AND A NEW ZFP WILL NOT BE REQUIRED WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY RESIDING ACROSS THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS...WHILE WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE ALIGNED
ALONG THE GULF. ALOFT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXITING TOWARDS NEW
ENGLAND...WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING NOSING IN ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE RIDGING IS ALLOWING
FOR SOME DECENT CLEARING ACROSS WESTERN KY/TN. THIS WILL LIKELY WORK
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOWS
BACK INTO THE 20S...WITH LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF I-75 AS WELL AS
THE BLUEGRASS SEEING THE COLDER READINGS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL INTO SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS RETURNING
TO NEAR SEASONAL VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. MEANWHILE...THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE AMPLIFYING AS DEEPER TROUGHING TAKES SHAPE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
RIDE FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION TO ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
SUNDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOSE ITS GRIP ACROSS THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE RETURN AND SOME
INFLUECE FROM A WEAKER SOUTHEASTERN CONUS SURFACE SYSTEM. AS
SUCH...LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE ESTABLISHED EARLY ON...WITH SOME
UPPER 20S LIKELY IN THE NORTHEASTERN VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
WARM FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT...AS LOW CLOUDS INCREASE
QUICKLY...AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ENGAGE. WILL MAINTAIN THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO THREATEN SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY TOWARDS
DAWN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE THE STORY AS WE MOVE INTO CHRISTMAS
WEEK. THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE
CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LINE. MODELS CONTINUE TO LESSEN THE
INFLUENCE ON EASTERN KY. THEREFORE THINKING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN SE FLOW WILL
SEE A CONTINUED WARMING TREND AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM OF CONCERN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL GENERALLY MAKE INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.

NOW THE SYSTEM MOST HAVE BEEN WATCHING DUE TO THE POTENTIAL
IMPLICATIONS FOR CHRISTMAS TRAVEL PLANS. HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL
BEGIN SETTING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AS WE MOVE INTO TUESDAY. POPS
WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS MOISTURE AND CLOUDS STREAM INTO
THE REGION. ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL AID IN
DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTH ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS LATER
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE DISCONTINUITY IN
THE MODELS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS
DEVELOPS A CUTOFF LOW AT THE 500MB LEVEL THAT TRACKS N INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ALONG WITH THE SURFACE LOW BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...HOWEVER THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE CUTOFF ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST BUT HAS A SIMILAR
TRACK HOWEVER IT TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY WEDNESDAY. GIVEN
THIS WILL LEAN TOWARD THE BLEND FOR GUIDANCE DURING THIS PERIOD AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO RESOLVE THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM.

SO WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...MUCH OF THE BEGINNING
STAGES OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ALL RAIN AS STRONG JET ENERGY CONTINUES
TO SURGE WARM AND MOIST AIR UP FROM THE S AND SW ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE QUESTION REALLY BECOMES HOW QUICKLY
DO WE GET COLD AIR INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE MOISTURE
IS CUTOFF. THE GFS HAS SLOWED THE TIMING OF COLD AIR COMPARED TO THE
12Z ECMWF. COMPARING THE GFS TO PREVIOUS RUNS THE COLDER AIR IS
SLOWER TO MAKE IT INTO THE REGION. EITHER WAY IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE
WILL SEE A CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATER WEDNESDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING THROUGH THE DAY WITH 24 HOUR
HIGHS BEING REACH IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. RIGHT NOW IT WOULD
APPEAR THAT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP BELOW FREEZING UNTIL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...SO INITIALLY THINKING THIS CHANGE OVER PERIOD WILL LEAD TO
LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION GIVEN WARMER GROUND TEMPS. THE ISSUE
BECOMES MOVING INTO OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO AND BELOW
FREEZING. MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS DO INDICATE ABRUPT DRYING AS
WE MOVE INTO LATER WEDNESDAY THEREFORE WOULD EXPECT MORE OF A WRAP
AROUND SNOW SHOWER SCENARIO BY THIS POINT. THIS WOULD LEAD TO LITTLE
IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS HOWEVER SLICK SPOTS COULD STILL BE A ISSUE GIVEN
THE COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE CAVEAT HERE WOULD BE THE
WINDY CONDITIONS WOULD DRY THE REGION OUT AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES.
INTO THE REGION

THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIE DOWN BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. BOTH THE MODELS HAVE
COME INTO SOME ALIGNMENT IN BRINGING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. RIGHT NOW THE BLEND BRINGING
CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 706 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

MOST PLACES TONIGHT WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER...SOME LOWER CEILINGS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE CWA BUT THIS CLOUD COVER IS DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
HAVE PUT SOME MVFR CEILINGS IN THE NORTH AND CLEARING OUT THE AREA IN
THE SOUTH AS THIS CLOUD COVER MOVES OUT TO THE EAST. AT SME AND
LOZ...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THEM CLEARING OUT THAT
SOME FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS DAWN. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER







000
FXUS63 KJKL 210006
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
706 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 706 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THIS EVENING APPEARS TO BE WITH CLOUD COVER
THAT IS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE
THAT IS EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST AND BEHIND THIS TO THE WEST...WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS NUDGING INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO INTERIM
AFFECT THE HOURLY TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WILL ADJUST
ACCORDING. ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH...WHERE THIS AREA WILL LIKELY
CLEAR OUT BEFORE AREAS NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY DO. SO MADE A
FEW TWEAKS TO HOURLY TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER. THE REST OF THE FORECAST
IS GOOD TO GO AND A NEW ZFP WILL NOT BE REQUIRED WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY RESIDING ACROSS THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS...WHILE WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE ALIGNED
ALONG THE GULF. ALOFT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXITING TOWARDS NEW
ENGLAND...WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING NOSING IN ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE RIDGING IS ALLOWING
FOR SOME DECENT CLEARING ACROSS WESTERN KY/TN. THIS WILL LIKELY WORK
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOWS
BACK INTO THE 20S...WITH LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF I-75 AS WELL AS
THE BLUEGRASS SEEING THE COLDER READINGS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL INTO SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS RETURNING
TO NEAR SEASONAL VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. MEANWHILE...THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE AMPLIFYING AS DEEPER TROUGHING TAKES SHAPE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
RIDE FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION TO ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
SUNDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOSE ITS GRIP ACROSS THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE RETURN AND SOME
INFLUECE FROM A WEAKER SOUTHEASTERN CONUS SURFACE SYSTEM. AS
SUCH...LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE ESTABLISHED EARLY ON...WITH SOME
UPPER 20S LIKELY IN THE NORTHEASTERN VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
WARM FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT...AS LOW CLOUDS INCREASE
QUICKLY...AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ENGAGE. WILL MAINTAIN THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO THREATEN SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY TOWARDS
DAWN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE THE STORY AS WE MOVE INTO CHRISTMAS
WEEK. THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE
CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LINE. MODELS CONTINUE TO LESSEN THE
INFLUENCE ON EASTERN KY. THEREFORE THINKING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN SE FLOW WILL
SEE A CONTINUED WARMING TREND AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM OF CONCERN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL GENERALLY MAKE INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.

NOW THE SYSTEM MOST HAVE BEEN WATCHING DUE TO THE POTENTIAL
IMPLICATIONS FOR CHRISTMAS TRAVEL PLANS. HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL
BEGIN SETTING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AS WE MOVE INTO TUESDAY. POPS
WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS MOISTURE AND CLOUDS STREAM INTO
THE REGION. ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL AID IN
DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTH ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS LATER
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE DISCONTINUITY IN
THE MODELS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS
DEVELOPS A CUTOFF LOW AT THE 500MB LEVEL THAT TRACKS N INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ALONG WITH THE SURFACE LOW BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...HOWEVER THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE CUTOFF ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST BUT HAS A SIMILAR
TRACK HOWEVER IT TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY WEDNESDAY. GIVEN
THIS WILL LEAN TOWARD THE BLEND FOR GUIDANCE DURING THIS PERIOD AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO RESOLVE THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM.

SO WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...MUCH OF THE BEGINNING
STAGES OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ALL RAIN AS STRONG JET ENERGY CONTINUES
TO SURGE WARM AND MOIST AIR UP FROM THE S AND SW ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE QUESTION REALLY BECOMES HOW QUICKLY
DO WE GET COLD AIR INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE MOISTURE
IS CUTOFF. THE GFS HAS SLOWED THE TIMING OF COLD AIR COMPARED TO THE
12Z ECMWF. COMPARING THE GFS TO PREVIOUS RUNS THE COLDER AIR IS
SLOWER TO MAKE IT INTO THE REGION. EITHER WAY IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE
WILL SEE A CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATER WEDNESDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING THROUGH THE DAY WITH 24 HOUR
HIGHS BEING REACH IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. RIGHT NOW IT WOULD
APPEAR THAT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP BELOW FREEZING UNTIL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...SO INITIALLY THINKING THIS CHANGE OVER PERIOD WILL LEAD TO
LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION GIVEN WARMER GROUND TEMPS. THE ISSUE
BECOMES MOVING INTO OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO AND BELOW
FREEZING. MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS DO INDICATE ABRUPT DRYING AS
WE MOVE INTO LATER WEDNESDAY THEREFORE WOULD EXPECT MORE OF A WRAP
AROUND SNOW SHOWER SCENARIO BY THIS POINT. THIS WOULD LEAD TO LITTLE
IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS HOWEVER SLICK SPOTS COULD STILL BE A ISSUE GIVEN
THE COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE CAVEAT HERE WOULD BE THE
WINDY CONDITIONS WOULD DRY THE REGION OUT AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES.
INTO THE REGION

THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIE DOWN BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. BOTH THE MODELS HAVE
COME INTO SOME ALIGNMENT IN BRINGING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. RIGHT NOW THE BLEND BRINGING
CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 706 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

MOST PLACES TONIGHT WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER...SOME LOWER CEILINGS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE CWA BUT THIS CLOUD COVER IS DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
HAVE PUT SOME MVFR CEILINGS IN THE NORTH AND CLEARING OUT THE AREA IN
THE SOUTH AS THIS CLOUD COVER MOVES OUT TO THE EAST. AT SME AND
LOZ...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THEM CLEARING OUT THAT
SOME FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS DAWN. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER








000
FXUS63 KJKL 210006
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
706 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 706 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THIS EVENING APPEARS TO BE WITH CLOUD COVER
THAT IS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE
THAT IS EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST AND BEHIND THIS TO THE WEST...WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS NUDGING INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO INTERIM
AFFECT THE HOURLY TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WILL ADJUST
ACCORDING. ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH...WHERE THIS AREA WILL LIKELY
CLEAR OUT BEFORE AREAS NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY DO. SO MADE A
FEW TWEAKS TO HOURLY TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER. THE REST OF THE FORECAST
IS GOOD TO GO AND A NEW ZFP WILL NOT BE REQUIRED WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY RESIDING ACROSS THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS...WHILE WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE ALIGNED
ALONG THE GULF. ALOFT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXITING TOWARDS NEW
ENGLAND...WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING NOSING IN ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE RIDGING IS ALLOWING
FOR SOME DECENT CLEARING ACROSS WESTERN KY/TN. THIS WILL LIKELY WORK
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOWS
BACK INTO THE 20S...WITH LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF I-75 AS WELL AS
THE BLUEGRASS SEEING THE COLDER READINGS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL INTO SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS RETURNING
TO NEAR SEASONAL VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. MEANWHILE...THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE AMPLIFYING AS DEEPER TROUGHING TAKES SHAPE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
RIDE FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION TO ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
SUNDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOSE ITS GRIP ACROSS THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE RETURN AND SOME
INFLUECE FROM A WEAKER SOUTHEASTERN CONUS SURFACE SYSTEM. AS
SUCH...LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE ESTABLISHED EARLY ON...WITH SOME
UPPER 20S LIKELY IN THE NORTHEASTERN VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
WARM FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT...AS LOW CLOUDS INCREASE
QUICKLY...AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ENGAGE. WILL MAINTAIN THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO THREATEN SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY TOWARDS
DAWN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE THE STORY AS WE MOVE INTO CHRISTMAS
WEEK. THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE
CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LINE. MODELS CONTINUE TO LESSEN THE
INFLUENCE ON EASTERN KY. THEREFORE THINKING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN SE FLOW WILL
SEE A CONTINUED WARMING TREND AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM OF CONCERN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL GENERALLY MAKE INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.

NOW THE SYSTEM MOST HAVE BEEN WATCHING DUE TO THE POTENTIAL
IMPLICATIONS FOR CHRISTMAS TRAVEL PLANS. HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL
BEGIN SETTING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AS WE MOVE INTO TUESDAY. POPS
WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS MOISTURE AND CLOUDS STREAM INTO
THE REGION. ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL AID IN
DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTH ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS LATER
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE DISCONTINUITY IN
THE MODELS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS
DEVELOPS A CUTOFF LOW AT THE 500MB LEVEL THAT TRACKS N INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ALONG WITH THE SURFACE LOW BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...HOWEVER THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE CUTOFF ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST BUT HAS A SIMILAR
TRACK HOWEVER IT TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY WEDNESDAY. GIVEN
THIS WILL LEAN TOWARD THE BLEND FOR GUIDANCE DURING THIS PERIOD AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO RESOLVE THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM.

SO WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...MUCH OF THE BEGINNING
STAGES OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ALL RAIN AS STRONG JET ENERGY CONTINUES
TO SURGE WARM AND MOIST AIR UP FROM THE S AND SW ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE QUESTION REALLY BECOMES HOW QUICKLY
DO WE GET COLD AIR INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE MOISTURE
IS CUTOFF. THE GFS HAS SLOWED THE TIMING OF COLD AIR COMPARED TO THE
12Z ECMWF. COMPARING THE GFS TO PREVIOUS RUNS THE COLDER AIR IS
SLOWER TO MAKE IT INTO THE REGION. EITHER WAY IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE
WILL SEE A CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATER WEDNESDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING THROUGH THE DAY WITH 24 HOUR
HIGHS BEING REACH IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. RIGHT NOW IT WOULD
APPEAR THAT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP BELOW FREEZING UNTIL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...SO INITIALLY THINKING THIS CHANGE OVER PERIOD WILL LEAD TO
LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION GIVEN WARMER GROUND TEMPS. THE ISSUE
BECOMES MOVING INTO OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO AND BELOW
FREEZING. MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS DO INDICATE ABRUPT DRYING AS
WE MOVE INTO LATER WEDNESDAY THEREFORE WOULD EXPECT MORE OF A WRAP
AROUND SNOW SHOWER SCENARIO BY THIS POINT. THIS WOULD LEAD TO LITTLE
IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS HOWEVER SLICK SPOTS COULD STILL BE A ISSUE GIVEN
THE COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE CAVEAT HERE WOULD BE THE
WINDY CONDITIONS WOULD DRY THE REGION OUT AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES.
INTO THE REGION

THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIE DOWN BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. BOTH THE MODELS HAVE
COME INTO SOME ALIGNMENT IN BRINGING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. RIGHT NOW THE BLEND BRINGING
CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 706 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

MOST PLACES TONIGHT WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER...SOME LOWER CEILINGS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE CWA BUT THIS CLOUD COVER IS DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
HAVE PUT SOME MVFR CEILINGS IN THE NORTH AND CLEARING OUT THE AREA IN
THE SOUTH AS THIS CLOUD COVER MOVES OUT TO THE EAST. AT SME AND
LOZ...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THEM CLEARING OUT THAT
SOME FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS DAWN. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER







000
FXUS63 KJKL 202053
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
353 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY RESIDING ACROSS THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS...WHILE WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE ALIGNED
ALONG THE GULF. ALOFT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXITING TOWARDS NEW
ENGLAND...WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING NOSING IN ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE RIDGING IS ALLOWING
FOR SOME DECENT CLEARING ACROSS WESTERN KY/TN. THIS WILL LIKELY WORK
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOWS
BACK INTO THE 20S...WITH LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF I-75 AS WELL AS
THE BLUEGRASS SEEING THE COLDER READINGS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL INTO SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS RETURNING
TO NEAR SEASONAL VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. MEANWHILE...THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE AMPLIFYING AS DEEPER TROUGHING TAKES SHAPE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
RIDE FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION TO ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
SUNDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOSE ITS GRIP ACROSS THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE RETURN AND SOME
INFLUECE FROM A WEAKER SOUTHEASTERN CONUS SURFACE SYSTEM. AS
SUCH...LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE ESTABLISHED EARLY ON...WITH SOME
UPPER 20S LIKELY IN THE NORTHEASTERN VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
WARM FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT...AS LOW CLOUDS INCREASE
QUICKLY...AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ENGAGE. WILL MAINTAIN THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO THREATEN SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY TOWARDS
DAWN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE THE STORY AS WE MOVE INTO CHRISTMAS
WEEK. THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE
CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LINE. MODELS CONTINUE TO LESSEN THE
INFLUENCE ON EASTERN KY. THEREFORE THINKING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN SE FLOW WILL
SEE A CONTINUED WARMING TREND AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM OF CONCERN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL GENERALLY MAKE INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.

NOW THE SYSTEM MOST HAVE BEEN WATCHING DUE TO THE POTENTIAL
IMPLICATIONS FOR CHRISTMAS TRAVEL PLANS. HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL
BEGIN SETTING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AS WE MOVE INTO TUESDAY. POPS
WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS MOISTURE AND CLOUDS STREAM INTO
THE REGION. ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL AID IN
DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTH ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS LATER
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE DISCONTINUITY IN
THE MODELS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS
DEVELOPS A CUTOFF LOW AT THE 500MB LEVEL THAT TRACKS N INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ALONG WITH THE SURFACE LOW BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...HOWEVER THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE CUTOFF ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST BUT HAS A SIMILAR
TRACK HOWEVER IT TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY WEDNESDAY. GIVEN
THIS WILL LEAN TOWARD THE BLEND FOR GUIDANCE DURING THIS PERIOD AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO RESOLVE THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM.

SO WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...MUCH OF THE BEGINNING
STAGES OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ALL RAIN AS STRONG JET ENERGY CONTINUES
TO SURGE WARM AND MOIST AIR UP FROM THE S AND SW ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE QUESTION REALLY BECOMES HOW QUICKLY
DO WE GET COLD AIR INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE MOISTURE
IS CUTOFF. THE GFS HAS SLOWED THE TIMING OF COLD AIR COMPARED TO THE
12Z ECMWF. COMPARING THE GFS TO PREVIOUS RUNS THE COLDER AIR IS
SLOWER TO MAKE IT INTO THE REGION. EITHER WAY IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE
WILL SEE A CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATER WEDNESDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING THROUGH THE DAY WITH 24 HOUR
HIGHS BEING REACH IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. RIGHT NOW IT WOULD
APPEAR THAT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP BELOW FREEZING UNTIL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...SO INITIALLY THINKING THIS CHANGE OVER PERIOD WILL LEAD TO
LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION GIVEN WARMER GROUND TEMPS. THE ISSUE
BECOMES MOVING INTO OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO AND BELOW
FREEZING. MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS DO INDICATE ABRUPT DRYING AS
WE MOVE INTO LATER WEDNESDAY THEREFORE WOULD EXPECT MORE OF A WRAP
AROUND SNOW SHOWER SCENARIO BY THIS POINT. THIS WOULD LEAD TO LITTLE
IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS HOWEVER SLICK SPOTS COULD STILL BE A ISSUE GIVEN
THE COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE CAVEAT HERE WOULD BE THE
WINDY CONDITIONS WOULD DRY THE REGION OUT AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES.
INTO THE REGION

THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIE DOWN BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. BOTH THE MODELS HAVE
COME INTO SOME ALIGNMENT IN BRINGING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. RIGHT NOW THE BLEND BRINGING
CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 134 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO REIGN ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR THE I-64 CORRIDOR...WHERE
SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE LIFTING.
CLOUD DECKS WILL RANGE FROM 5-7K FEET AGL THROUGH THIS
EVENING...BEFORE SCATTERING OUT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 5 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
WELL.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN










000
FXUS63 KJKL 202053
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
353 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY RESIDING ACROSS THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS...WHILE WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE ALIGNED
ALONG THE GULF. ALOFT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXITING TOWARDS NEW
ENGLAND...WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING NOSING IN ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE RIDGING IS ALLOWING
FOR SOME DECENT CLEARING ACROSS WESTERN KY/TN. THIS WILL LIKELY WORK
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOWS
BACK INTO THE 20S...WITH LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF I-75 AS WELL AS
THE BLUEGRASS SEEING THE COLDER READINGS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL INTO SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS RETURNING
TO NEAR SEASONAL VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. MEANWHILE...THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE AMPLIFYING AS DEEPER TROUGHING TAKES SHAPE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
RIDE FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION TO ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
SUNDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOSE ITS GRIP ACROSS THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE RETURN AND SOME
INFLUECE FROM A WEAKER SOUTHEASTERN CONUS SURFACE SYSTEM. AS
SUCH...LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE ESTABLISHED EARLY ON...WITH SOME
UPPER 20S LIKELY IN THE NORTHEASTERN VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
WARM FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT...AS LOW CLOUDS INCREASE
QUICKLY...AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ENGAGE. WILL MAINTAIN THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO THREATEN SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY TOWARDS
DAWN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE THE STORY AS WE MOVE INTO CHRISTMAS
WEEK. THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE
CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LINE. MODELS CONTINUE TO LESSEN THE
INFLUENCE ON EASTERN KY. THEREFORE THINKING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN SE FLOW WILL
SEE A CONTINUED WARMING TREND AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM OF CONCERN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL GENERALLY MAKE INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.

NOW THE SYSTEM MOST HAVE BEEN WATCHING DUE TO THE POTENTIAL
IMPLICATIONS FOR CHRISTMAS TRAVEL PLANS. HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL
BEGIN SETTING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AS WE MOVE INTO TUESDAY. POPS
WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS MOISTURE AND CLOUDS STREAM INTO
THE REGION. ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL AID IN
DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTH ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS LATER
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE DISCONTINUITY IN
THE MODELS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS
DEVELOPS A CUTOFF LOW AT THE 500MB LEVEL THAT TRACKS N INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ALONG WITH THE SURFACE LOW BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...HOWEVER THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE CUTOFF ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST BUT HAS A SIMILAR
TRACK HOWEVER IT TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY WEDNESDAY. GIVEN
THIS WILL LEAN TOWARD THE BLEND FOR GUIDANCE DURING THIS PERIOD AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO RESOLVE THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM.

SO WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...MUCH OF THE BEGINNING
STAGES OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ALL RAIN AS STRONG JET ENERGY CONTINUES
TO SURGE WARM AND MOIST AIR UP FROM THE S AND SW ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE QUESTION REALLY BECOMES HOW QUICKLY
DO WE GET COLD AIR INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE MOISTURE
IS CUTOFF. THE GFS HAS SLOWED THE TIMING OF COLD AIR COMPARED TO THE
12Z ECMWF. COMPARING THE GFS TO PREVIOUS RUNS THE COLDER AIR IS
SLOWER TO MAKE IT INTO THE REGION. EITHER WAY IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE
WILL SEE A CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATER WEDNESDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING THROUGH THE DAY WITH 24 HOUR
HIGHS BEING REACH IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. RIGHT NOW IT WOULD
APPEAR THAT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP BELOW FREEZING UNTIL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...SO INITIALLY THINKING THIS CHANGE OVER PERIOD WILL LEAD TO
LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION GIVEN WARMER GROUND TEMPS. THE ISSUE
BECOMES MOVING INTO OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO AND BELOW
FREEZING. MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS DO INDICATE ABRUPT DRYING AS
WE MOVE INTO LATER WEDNESDAY THEREFORE WOULD EXPECT MORE OF A WRAP
AROUND SNOW SHOWER SCENARIO BY THIS POINT. THIS WOULD LEAD TO LITTLE
IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS HOWEVER SLICK SPOTS COULD STILL BE A ISSUE GIVEN
THE COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE CAVEAT HERE WOULD BE THE
WINDY CONDITIONS WOULD DRY THE REGION OUT AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES.
INTO THE REGION

THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIE DOWN BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. BOTH THE MODELS HAVE
COME INTO SOME ALIGNMENT IN BRINGING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. RIGHT NOW THE BLEND BRINGING
CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 134 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO REIGN ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR THE I-64 CORRIDOR...WHERE
SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE LIFTING.
CLOUD DECKS WILL RANGE FROM 5-7K FEET AGL THROUGH THIS
EVENING...BEFORE SCATTERING OUT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 5 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
WELL.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN









000
FXUS63 KJKL 201834 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
134 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 134 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS ACCORDING TO THE
LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1109 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

RADAR ECHOES ARE WINDING DOWN QUICKLY NOW AS FORCING EXITS OFF TO THE
EAST. ANY REMAINING FLURRIES SHOULD BE DONE BEFORE 1 PM. FRESHENED UP
THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THESE LATEST TRENDS. A NICE BAND OF CLEARING
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND EXPANDS SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE UPPER HALF OF MISSISSIPPI. THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY REMAINS
ON THE FRINGE OF THIS CLEARING AND THE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS DO
NOT SHOW THIS CLEARING EXPANDING ANY MORE TO THE NORTHEAST
NECESSARILY. AS SUCH...HAVE A GENERAL THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER
INTO THE EVENING HOURS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST PER THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE AND INHERITED FORECAST. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY
RUNNING A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER UP NORTH. AS SUCH...LOWERED
THE HIGHS A BIT...GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30 NORTH OF
I-64...TO THE LOW 40S IN THE SOUTH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS AND THE ZONE FORECAST TEXT PRODUCT
TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THAT HAVE BEEN OCCURRING
IN OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES THAT PAST HOUR OR SO. SNOW SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN OCCURRING GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64 AND SHOULD CONTINUE
OFF AND ON THROUGH AROUND 15Z BEFORE EXITING THAT PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE THESE
SNOW SHOWERS OCCUR. THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW IN
PIKEVILLE DURING THE PAST HOUR. THE NEW ZONES HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT.
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL ALSO BE UPDATED TO DEAL WITH THE
SNOW UP NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE LATEST RUNS OF MOST OF THE FORECAST MODELS HAVE PICKED UP ON THE
FACT THAT LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY SO FAR THIS MORNING. SURFACE OBS FROM
AROUND THE STATE OF KENTUCKY HAVE BEEN SHOWING NO MEASURABLE PRECIP
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
HAS BEEN PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...BUT NO MUCH MORE THAN THAT THUS FAR. WITH THIS SYSTEM
QUICKLY PULLING OFF TO THE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...AND WITH NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...THE CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AT ANY POINT DURING
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD OR DURING THE DAY TODAY. THAT
BEING SAID...HAVE LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM NOW THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BY QUITE A BIT...AND HAVE THE ENTIRE AREA PRECIP
FREE BY 18Z. THE ONLY REASON EVEN LOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE LEFT IN
THE FORECAST IS THE FACT THAT A NUMBER OF PRECIP TYPE ECHOES ARE
STILL SHOWING UP ON RADAR IMAGERY FROM AROUND THE AREA. ALSO...THE
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE STILL SHOWING A VERY SMALL CHANCE THAT SOME
MEASURABLE PRECIP COULD REACH THE GROUND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
WILL GO WITH THIS THINKING FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO UPDATE THE
FORECAST BEFORE THE END OF THE SHIFT IF THINGS DO NOT PAN OUT AS PLANNED.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY DUE TO
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND NORTHERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL...AS EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW SETS UP DOWNSLOPE WARMING ACROSS THE AREA AND CLOUDS THINS OUT
BEHIND THE DEPARTED UPPER LOW. HIGHS ON SUNDAY COULD TOP OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW READINGS AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 50 NORTH OF THE TENNESSEE BORDER AND ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
BE THE WEATHER MAKER ACROSS THE REGION TO END THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

ACTIVE PATTERN STILL EXPECTED THROUGH CHRISTMAS WEEK. IN
FACT...FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE PUSHING NORTHEAST ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK. NAM REMAINS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE NORTHWEST EXTENSION OF PRECIPITATION. STILL NOT
CONVINCED WE WILL OVERCOME THE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHEAST FLOW.
THUS...HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY. GFS
SEEMS TO BE CATCHING ONTO THE DOWNSLOPING THE BEST...ALTHOUGH THIS
MAY BE DUE TO THE FACT IT DOES NOT CONTAIN AS MANY SHALLOW LAYERS AS
THE NAM DOES. REGARDLESS...THE PATTERN DOES NOT SUPPORT MUCH
PRECIPITATION AND IT SHOULD BE A FAST MOVER WITH CHANCES MAINLY
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ALL RAIN AS
MILDER CONDITIONS SPREAD NORTHWARD WITH THE SYSTEM. BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY...SOUTHEAST FLOW ONLY STRENGTHENS THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...LIKELY KEEPING THE AREA DRY. MUCH MILDER AIR WILL ALSO
SPREAD NORTHWARD. THIS WILL SET UP A FEW VERY MILD DAYS FOR MID TO
LATE DECEMBER WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S ON MONDAY AND AROUND 60 BY
TUESDAY. GUIDANCE IS HIGHER WITH TEMPERATURES INTO TUESDAY...BUT
OPTED TO STAY JUST UNDER THESE NUMBERS AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS COULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH
THE SOUTHERN STREAM WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY PUSH
NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...AS IT QUICKLY
DEEPENS. LATEST 00Z ECMWF HAS SLOWED EVERYTHING DOWN A BIT INTO THE
DAY WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER EVOLUTION
WITH THE FORECAST. REGARDLESS...THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND A VERY STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. STRONG FORCING WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AS THE FRONT
PUSHES EAST. THE STRONG DYNAMICS ALONE COULD SUPPORT SOME THUNDER
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT OPTED TO LEAVE IT
OUT FOR ONE MORE FORECAST CYCLE AND SEE IF MODELS MIGHT SHOW MORE
SUPPORT IN THE NEXT FEW RUNS. GOING TO BE QUITE WINDY AS WELL
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS. SOME WIND
GUSTS UP TO 35 OR 40 MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE. STAYED ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT (AROUND 50) AS WE SHOULD STAY WELL MIXED AHEAD OF
SUCH A STRONG FRONT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY AS THE
FRONT WILL BRING CRASHING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. A
SECOND WAVE WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...KEEPING PRECIPITATION GOING. THE COLD AIR WILL BRING A
TRANSITION OVER SNOW AS WE HEAD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WHILE TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...IF SNOWFALL RATES CAN GET GOOD ENOUGH...WE COULD SEE A
LIGHT COATING BY LATE IN THE DAY IN SOME AREAS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
MODELS ARE SHOWING A FASTER EXIT OF THE MOISTURE...SO THE WINDOW FOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT BIG. THUS...ANY ACCUMULATION
WILL REMAIN LIGHT...LIKELY UNDER AN INCH...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE
HIGHER RIDGES WHERE AN EARLIER TRANSITION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

BY CHRISTMAS...RIDGING SPREADS BACK INTO THE AREA...SETTING UP A
QUIET CHRISTMAS DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY
INTO THE LOW 40S. OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE BY
FRIDAY...BUT THE TRACK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF
KENTUCKY AT THIS TIME...WHICH WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT ALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
THIS WILL ALSO MEAN MILDER WEATHER RETURNS FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...BEFORE A RETURN TO COLDER WEATHER BY NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 134 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO REIGN ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR THE I-64 CORRIDOR...WHERE
SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE LIFTING.
CLOUD DECKS WILL RANGE FROM 5-7K FEET AGL THROUGH THIS
EVENING...BEFORE SCATTERING OUT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 5 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
WELL.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN










000
FXUS63 KJKL 201834 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
134 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 134 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS ACCORDING TO THE
LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1109 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

RADAR ECHOES ARE WINDING DOWN QUICKLY NOW AS FORCING EXITS OFF TO THE
EAST. ANY REMAINING FLURRIES SHOULD BE DONE BEFORE 1 PM. FRESHENED UP
THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THESE LATEST TRENDS. A NICE BAND OF CLEARING
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND EXPANDS SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE UPPER HALF OF MISSISSIPPI. THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY REMAINS
ON THE FRINGE OF THIS CLEARING AND THE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS DO
NOT SHOW THIS CLEARING EXPANDING ANY MORE TO THE NORTHEAST
NECESSARILY. AS SUCH...HAVE A GENERAL THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER
INTO THE EVENING HOURS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST PER THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE AND INHERITED FORECAST. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY
RUNNING A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER UP NORTH. AS SUCH...LOWERED
THE HIGHS A BIT...GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30 NORTH OF
I-64...TO THE LOW 40S IN THE SOUTH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS AND THE ZONE FORECAST TEXT PRODUCT
TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THAT HAVE BEEN OCCURRING
IN OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES THAT PAST HOUR OR SO. SNOW SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN OCCURRING GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64 AND SHOULD CONTINUE
OFF AND ON THROUGH AROUND 15Z BEFORE EXITING THAT PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE THESE
SNOW SHOWERS OCCUR. THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW IN
PIKEVILLE DURING THE PAST HOUR. THE NEW ZONES HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT.
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL ALSO BE UPDATED TO DEAL WITH THE
SNOW UP NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE LATEST RUNS OF MOST OF THE FORECAST MODELS HAVE PICKED UP ON THE
FACT THAT LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY SO FAR THIS MORNING. SURFACE OBS FROM
AROUND THE STATE OF KENTUCKY HAVE BEEN SHOWING NO MEASURABLE PRECIP
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
HAS BEEN PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...BUT NO MUCH MORE THAN THAT THUS FAR. WITH THIS SYSTEM
QUICKLY PULLING OFF TO THE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...AND WITH NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...THE CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AT ANY POINT DURING
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD OR DURING THE DAY TODAY. THAT
BEING SAID...HAVE LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM NOW THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BY QUITE A BIT...AND HAVE THE ENTIRE AREA PRECIP
FREE BY 18Z. THE ONLY REASON EVEN LOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE LEFT IN
THE FORECAST IS THE FACT THAT A NUMBER OF PRECIP TYPE ECHOES ARE
STILL SHOWING UP ON RADAR IMAGERY FROM AROUND THE AREA. ALSO...THE
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE STILL SHOWING A VERY SMALL CHANCE THAT SOME
MEASURABLE PRECIP COULD REACH THE GROUND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
WILL GO WITH THIS THINKING FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO UPDATE THE
FORECAST BEFORE THE END OF THE SHIFT IF THINGS DO NOT PAN OUT AS PLANNED.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY DUE TO
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND NORTHERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL...AS EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW SETS UP DOWNSLOPE WARMING ACROSS THE AREA AND CLOUDS THINS OUT
BEHIND THE DEPARTED UPPER LOW. HIGHS ON SUNDAY COULD TOP OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW READINGS AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 50 NORTH OF THE TENNESSEE BORDER AND ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
BE THE WEATHER MAKER ACROSS THE REGION TO END THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

ACTIVE PATTERN STILL EXPECTED THROUGH CHRISTMAS WEEK. IN
FACT...FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE PUSHING NORTHEAST ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK. NAM REMAINS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE NORTHWEST EXTENSION OF PRECIPITATION. STILL NOT
CONVINCED WE WILL OVERCOME THE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHEAST FLOW.
THUS...HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY. GFS
SEEMS TO BE CATCHING ONTO THE DOWNSLOPING THE BEST...ALTHOUGH THIS
MAY BE DUE TO THE FACT IT DOES NOT CONTAIN AS MANY SHALLOW LAYERS AS
THE NAM DOES. REGARDLESS...THE PATTERN DOES NOT SUPPORT MUCH
PRECIPITATION AND IT SHOULD BE A FAST MOVER WITH CHANCES MAINLY
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ALL RAIN AS
MILDER CONDITIONS SPREAD NORTHWARD WITH THE SYSTEM. BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY...SOUTHEAST FLOW ONLY STRENGTHENS THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...LIKELY KEEPING THE AREA DRY. MUCH MILDER AIR WILL ALSO
SPREAD NORTHWARD. THIS WILL SET UP A FEW VERY MILD DAYS FOR MID TO
LATE DECEMBER WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S ON MONDAY AND AROUND 60 BY
TUESDAY. GUIDANCE IS HIGHER WITH TEMPERATURES INTO TUESDAY...BUT
OPTED TO STAY JUST UNDER THESE NUMBERS AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS COULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH
THE SOUTHERN STREAM WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY PUSH
NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...AS IT QUICKLY
DEEPENS. LATEST 00Z ECMWF HAS SLOWED EVERYTHING DOWN A BIT INTO THE
DAY WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER EVOLUTION
WITH THE FORECAST. REGARDLESS...THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND A VERY STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. STRONG FORCING WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AS THE FRONT
PUSHES EAST. THE STRONG DYNAMICS ALONE COULD SUPPORT SOME THUNDER
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT OPTED TO LEAVE IT
OUT FOR ONE MORE FORECAST CYCLE AND SEE IF MODELS MIGHT SHOW MORE
SUPPORT IN THE NEXT FEW RUNS. GOING TO BE QUITE WINDY AS WELL
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS. SOME WIND
GUSTS UP TO 35 OR 40 MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE. STAYED ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT (AROUND 50) AS WE SHOULD STAY WELL MIXED AHEAD OF
SUCH A STRONG FRONT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY AS THE
FRONT WILL BRING CRASHING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. A
SECOND WAVE WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...KEEPING PRECIPITATION GOING. THE COLD AIR WILL BRING A
TRANSITION OVER SNOW AS WE HEAD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WHILE TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...IF SNOWFALL RATES CAN GET GOOD ENOUGH...WE COULD SEE A
LIGHT COATING BY LATE IN THE DAY IN SOME AREAS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
MODELS ARE SHOWING A FASTER EXIT OF THE MOISTURE...SO THE WINDOW FOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT BIG. THUS...ANY ACCUMULATION
WILL REMAIN LIGHT...LIKELY UNDER AN INCH...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE
HIGHER RIDGES WHERE AN EARLIER TRANSITION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

BY CHRISTMAS...RIDGING SPREADS BACK INTO THE AREA...SETTING UP A
QUIET CHRISTMAS DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY
INTO THE LOW 40S. OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE BY
FRIDAY...BUT THE TRACK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF
KENTUCKY AT THIS TIME...WHICH WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT ALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
THIS WILL ALSO MEAN MILDER WEATHER RETURNS FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...BEFORE A RETURN TO COLDER WEATHER BY NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 134 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO REIGN ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR THE I-64 CORRIDOR...WHERE
SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE LIFTING.
CLOUD DECKS WILL RANGE FROM 5-7K FEET AGL THROUGH THIS
EVENING...BEFORE SCATTERING OUT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 5 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
WELL.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN









000
FXUS63 KJKL 201609 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1109 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1109 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

RADAR ECHOES ARE WINDING DOWN QUICKLY NOW AS FORCING EXITS OFF TO THE
EAST. ANY REMAINING FLURRIES SHOULD BE DONE BEFORE 1 PM. FRESHENED UP
THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THESE LATEST TRENDS. A NICE BAND OF CLEARING
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND EXPANDS SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE UPPER HALF OF MISSISSIPPI. THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY REMAINS
ON THE FRINGE OF THIS CLEARING AND THE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS DO
NOT SHOW THIS CLEARING EXPANDING ANY MORE TO THE NORTHEAST
NECESSARILY. AS SUCH...HAVE A GENERAL THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER
INTO THE EVENING HOURS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST PER THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE AND INHERITED FORECAST. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY
RUNNING A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER UP NORTH. AS SUCH...LOWERED
THE HIGHS A BIT...GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30 NORTH OF
I-64...TO THE LOW 40S IN THE SOUTH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS AND THE ZONE FORECAST TEXT PRODUCT
TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THAT HAVE BEEN OCCURRING
IN OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES THAT PAST HOUR OR SO. SNOW SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN OCCURRING GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64 AND SHOULD CONTINUE
OFF AND ON THROUGH AROUND 15Z BEFORE EXITING THAT PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE THESE
SNOW SHOWERS OCCUR. THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW IN
PIKEVILLE DURING THE PAST HOUR. THE NEW ZONES HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT.
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL ALSO BE UPDATED TO DEAL WITH THE
SNOW UP NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE LATEST RUNS OF MOST OF THE FORECAST MODELS HAVE PICKED UP ON THE
FACT THAT LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY SO FAR THIS MORNING. SURFACE OBS FROM
AROUND THE STATE OF KENTUCKY HAVE BEEN SHOWING NO MEASURABLE PRECIP
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
HAS BEEN PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...BUT NO MUCH MORE THAN THAT THUS FAR. WITH THIS SYSTEM
QUICKLY PULLING OFF TO THE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...AND WITH NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...THE CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AT ANY POINT DURING
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD OR DURING THE DAY TODAY. THAT
BEING SAID...HAVE LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM NOW THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BY QUITE A BIT...AND HAVE THE ENTIRE AREA PRECIP
FREE BY 18Z. THE ONLY REASON EVEN LOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE LEFT IN
THE FORECAST IS THE FACT THAT A NUMBER OF PRECIP TYPE ECHOES ARE
STILL SHOWING UP ON RADAR IMAGERY FROM AROUND THE AREA. ALSO...THE
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE STILL SHOWING A VERY SMALL CHANCE THAT SOME
MEASURABLE PRECIP COULD REACH THE GROUND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
WILL GO WITH THIS THINKING FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO UPDATE THE
FORECAST BEFORE THE END OF THE SHIFT IF THINGS DO NOT PAN OUT AS PLANNED.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY DUE TO
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND NORTHERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL...AS EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW SETS UP DOWNSLOPE WARMING ACROSS THE AREA AND CLOUDS THINS OUT
BEHIND THE DEPARTED UPPER LOW. HIGHS ON SUNDAY COULD TOP OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW READINGS AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 50 NORTH OF THE TENNESSEE BORDER AND ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
BE THE WEATHER MAKER ACROSS THE REGION TO END THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

ACTIVE PATTERN STILL EXPECTED THROUGH CHRISTMAS WEEK. IN
FACT...FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE PUSHING NORTHEAST ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK. NAM REMAINS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE NORTHWEST EXTENSION OF PRECIPITATION. STILL NOT
CONVINCED WE WILL OVERCOME THE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHEAST FLOW.
THUS...HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY. GFS
SEEMS TO BE CATCHING ONTO THE DOWNSLOPING THE BEST...ALTHOUGH THIS
MAY BE DUE TO THE FACT IT DOES NOT CONTAIN AS MANY SHALLOW LAYERS AS
THE NAM DOES. REGARDLESS...THE PATTERN DOES NOT SUPPORT MUCH
PRECIPITATION AND IT SHOULD BE A FAST MOVER WITH CHANCES MAINLY
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ALL RAIN AS
MILDER CONDITIONS SPREAD NORTHWARD WITH THE SYSTEM. BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY...SOUTHEAST FLOW ONLY STRENGTHENS THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...LIKELY KEEPING THE AREA DRY. MUCH MILDER AIR WILL ALSO
SPREAD NORTHWARD. THIS WILL SET UP A FEW VERY MILD DAYS FOR MID TO
LATE DECEMBER WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S ON MONDAY AND AROUND 60 BY
TUESDAY. GUIDANCE IS HIGHER WITH TEMPERATURES INTO TUESDAY...BUT
OPTED TO STAY JUST UNDER THESE NUMBERS AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS COULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH
THE SOUTHERN STREAM WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY PUSH
NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...AS IT QUICKLY
DEEPENS. LATEST 00Z ECMWF HAS SLOWED EVERYTHING DOWN A BIT INTO THE
DAY WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER EVOLUTION
WITH THE FORECAST. REGARDLESS...THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND A VERY STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. STRONG FORCING WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AS THE FRONT
PUSHES EAST. THE STRONG DYNAMICS ALONE COULD SUPPORT SOME THUNDER
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT OPTED TO LEAVE IT
OUT FOR ONE MORE FORECAST CYCLE AND SEE IF MODELS MIGHT SHOW MORE
SUPPORT IN THE NEXT FEW RUNS. GOING TO BE QUITE WINDY AS WELL
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS. SOME WIND
GUSTS UP TO 35 OR 40 MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE. STAYED ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT (AROUND 50) AS WE SHOULD STAY WELL MIXED AHEAD OF
SUCH A STRONG FRONT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY AS THE
FRONT WILL BRING CRASHING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. A
SECOND WAVE WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...KEEPING PRECIPITATION GOING. THE COLD AIR WILL BRING A
TRANSITION OVER SNOW AS WE HEAD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WHILE TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...IF SNOWFALL RATES CAN GET GOOD ENOUGH...WE COULD SEE A
LIGHT COATING BY LATE IN THE DAY IN SOME AREAS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
MODELS ARE SHOWING A FASTER EXIT OF THE MOISTURE...SO THE WINDOW FOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT BIG. THUS...ANY ACCUMULATION
WILL REMAIN LIGHT...LIKELY UNDER AN INCH...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE
HIGHER RIDGES WHERE AN EARLIER TRANSITION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

BY CHRISTMAS...RIDGING SPREADS BACK INTO THE AREA...SETTING UP A
QUIET CHRISTMAS DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY
INTO THE LOW 40S. OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE BY
FRIDAY...BUT THE TRACK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF
KENTUCKY AT THIS TIME...WHICH WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT ALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
THIS WILL ALSO MEAN MILDER WEATHER RETURNS FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...BEFORE A RETURN TO COLDER WEATHER BY NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
JKL..SYM...AND SJS THROUGH AROUND 15Z TODAY. A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUD COVER BETWEEN 6 AND 10K WILL ALSO PERSIST ACROSS THE
WHOLE OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH AROUND 0Z THIS EVENING. THE CLOUDS
SHOULD SCATTER OUT NICELY AFTER 0Z WITH LIGHT WINDS PREVAILING.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...AR








000
FXUS63 KJKL 201132
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
632 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 632 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS AND THE ZONE FORECAST TEXT PRODUCT
TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THAT HAVE BEEN OCCURRING
IN OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES THAT PAST HOUR OR SO. SNOW SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN OCCURRING GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64 AND SHOULD CONTINUE
OFF AND ON THROUGH AROUND 15Z BEFORE EXITING THAT PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE THESE
SNOW SHOWERS OCCUR. THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW IN
PIKEVILLE DURING THE PAST HOUR. THE NEW ZONES HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT.
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL ALSO BE UPDATED TO DEAL WITH THE
SNOW UP NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE LATEST RUNS OF MOST OF THE FORECAST MODELS HAVE PICKED UP ON THE
FACT THAT LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY SO FAR THIS MORNING. SURFACE OBS FROM
AROUND THE STATE OF KENTUCKY HAVE BEEN SHOWING NO MEASURABLE PRECIP
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
HAS BEEN PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...BUT NO MUCH MORE THAN THAT THUS FAR. WITH THIS SYSTEM
QUICKLY PULLING OFF TO THE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...AND WITH NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...THE CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AT ANY POINT DURING
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD OR DURING THE DAY TODAY. THAT
BEING SAID...HAVE LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM NOW THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BY QUITE A BIT...AND HAVE THE ENTIRE AREA PRECIP
FREE BY 18Z. THE ONLY REASON EVEN LOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE LEFT IN
THE FORECAST IS THE FACT THAT A NUMBER OF PRECIP TYPE ECHOES ARE
STILL SHOWING UP ON RADAR IMAGERY FROM AROUND THE AREA. ALSO...THE
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE STILL SHOWING A VERY SMALL CHANCE THAT SOME
MEASURABLE PRECIP COULD REACH THE GROUND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
WILL GO WITH THIS THINKING FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO UPDATE THE
FORECAST BEFORE THE END OF THE SHIFT IF THINGS DO NOT PAN OUT AS PLANNED.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY DUE TO
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND NORTHERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL...AS EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW SETS UP DOWNSLOPE WARMING ACROSS THE AREA AND CLOUDS THINS OUT
BEHIND THE DEPARTED UPPER LOW. HIGHS ON SUNDAY COULD TOP OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW READINGS AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 50 NORTH OF THE TENNESSEE BORDER AND ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
BE THE WEATHER MAKER ACROSS THE REGION TO END THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

ACTIVE PATTERN STILL EXPECTED THROUGH CHRISTMAS WEEK. IN
FACT...FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE PUSHING NORTHEAST ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK. NAM REMAINS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE NORTHWEST EXTENSION OF PRECIPITATION. STILL NOT
CONVINCED WE WILL OVERCOME THE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHEAST FLOW.
THUS...HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY. GFS
SEEMS TO BE CATCHING ONTO THE DOWNSLOPING THE BEST...ALTHOUGH THIS
MAY BE DUE TO THE FACT IT DOES NOT CONTAIN AS MANY SHALLOW LAYERS AS
THE NAM DOES. REGARDLESS...THE PATTERN DOES NOT SUPPORT MUCH
PRECIPITATION AND IT SHOULD BE A FAST MOVER WITH CHANCES MAINLY
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ALL RAIN AS
MILDER CONDITIONS SPREAD NORTHWARD WITH THE SYSTEM. BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY...SOUTHEAST FLOW ONLY STRENGTHENS THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...LIKELY KEEPING THE AREA DRY. MUCH MILDER AIR WILL ALSO
SPREAD NORTHWARD. THIS WILL SET UP A FEW VERY MILD DAYS FOR MID TO
LATE DECEMBER WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S ON MONDAY AND AROUND 60 BY
TUESDAY. GUIDANCE IS HIGHER WITH TEMPERATURES INTO TUESDAY...BUT
OPTED TO STAY JUST UNDER THESE NUMBERS AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS COULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH
THE SOUTHERN STREAM WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY PUSH
NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...AS IT QUICKLY
DEEPENS. LATEST 00Z ECMWF HAS SLOWED EVERYTHING DOWN A BIT INTO THE
DAY WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER EVOLUTION
WITH THE FORECAST. REGARDLESS...THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND A VERY STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. STRONG FORCING WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AS THE FRONT
PUSHES EAST. THE STRONG DYNAMICS ALONE COULD SUPPORT SOME THUNDER
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT OPTED TO LEAVE IT
OUT FOR ONE MORE FORECAST CYCLE AND SEE IF MODELS MIGHT SHOW MORE
SUPPORT IN THE NEXT FEW RUNS. GOING TO BE QUITE WINDY AS WELL
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS. SOME WIND
GUSTS UP TO 35 OR 40 MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE. STAYED ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT (AROUND 50) AS WE SHOULD STAY WELL MIXED AHEAD OF
SUCH A STRONG FRONT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY AS THE
FRONT WILL BRING CRASHING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. A
SECOND WAVE WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...KEEPING PRECIPITATION GOING. THE COLD AIR WILL BRING A
TRANSITION OVER SNOW AS WE HEAD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WHILE TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...IF SNOWFALL RATES CAN GET GOOD ENOUGH...WE COULD SEE A
LIGHT COATING BY LATE IN THE DAY IN SOME AREAS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
MODELS ARE SHOWING A FASTER EXIT OF THE MOISTURE...SO THE WINDOW FOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT BIG. THUS...ANY ACCUMULATION
WILL REMAIN LIGHT...LIKELY UNDER AN INCH...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE
HIGHER RIDGES WHERE AN EARLIER TRANSITION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

BY CHRISTMAS...RIDGING SPREADS BACK INTO THE AREA...SETTING UP A
QUITE CHRISTMAS DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY
INTO THE LOW 40S. OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE BY
FRIDAY...BUT THE TRACK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF
KENTUCKY AT THIS TIME...WHICH WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT ALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
THIS WILL ALSO MEAN MILDER WEATHER RETURNS FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...BEFORE A RETURN TO COLDER WEATHER BY NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
JKL..SYM...AND SJS THROUGH AROUND 15Z TODAY. A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUD COVER BETWEEN 6 AND 10K WILL ALSO PERSIST ACROSS THE
WHOLE OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH AROUND 0Z THIS EVENING. THE CLOUDS
SHOULD SCATTER OUT NICELY AFTER 0Z WITH LIGHT WINDS PREVAILING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...AR







000
FXUS63 KJKL 200806
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
306 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE LATEST RUNS OF MOST OF THE FORECAST MODELS HAVE PICKED UP ON THE
FACT THAT LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY SO FAR THIS MORNING. SURFACE OBS FROM
AROUND THE STATE OF KENTUCKY HAVE BEEN SHOWING NO MEASURABLE PRECIP
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
HAS BEEN PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...BUT NO MUCH MORE THAN THAT THUS FAR. WITH THIS SYSTEM
QUICKLY PULLING OFF TO THE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...AND WITH NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...THE CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AT ANY POINT DURING
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD OR DURING THE DAY TODAY. THAT
BEING SAID...HAVE LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM NOW THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BY QUITE A BIT...AND HAVE THE ENTIRE AREA PRECIP
FREE BY 18Z. THE ONLY REASON EVEN LOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE LEFT IN
THE FORECAST IS THE FACT THAT A NUMBER OF PRECIP TYPE ECHOES ARE
STILL SHOWING UP ON RADAR IMAGERY FROM AROUND THE AREA. ALSO...THE
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE STILL SHOWING A VERY SMALL CHANCE THAT SOME
MEASURABLE PRECIP COULD REACH THE GROUND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
WILL GO WITH THIS THINKING FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO UPDATE THE
FORECAST BEFORE THE END OF THE SHIFT IF THINGS DO NOT PAN OUT AS PLANNED.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY DUE TO
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND NORTHERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL...AS EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW SETS UP DOWNSLOPE WARMING ACROSS THE AREA AND CLOUDS THINS OUT
BEHIND THE DEPARTED UPPER LOW. HIGHS ON SUNDAY COULD TOP OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW READINGS AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 50 NORTH OF THE TENNESSEE BORDER AND ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
BE THE WEATHER MAKER ACROSS THE REGION TO END THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

ACTIVE PATTERN STILL EXPECTED THROUGH CHRISTMAS WEEK. IN
FACT...FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE PUSHING NORTHEAST ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK. NAM REMAINS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE NORTHWEST EXTENSION OF PRECIPITATION. STILL NOT
CONVINCED WE WILL OVERCOME THE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHEAST FLOW.
THUS...HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY. GFS
SEEMS TO BE CATCHING ONTO THE DOWNSLOPING THE BEST...ALTHOUGH THIS
MAY BE DUE TO THE FACT IT DOES NOT CONTAIN AS MANY SHALLOW LAYERS AS
THE NAM DOES. REGARDLESS...THE PATTERN DOES NOT SUPPORT MUCH
PRECIPITATION AND IT SHOULD BE A FAST MOVER WITH CHANCES MAINLY
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ALL RAIN AS
MILDER CONDITIONS SPREAD NORTHWARD WITH THE SYSTEM. BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY...SOUTHEAST FLOW ONLY STRENGTHENS THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...LIKELY KEEPING THE AREA DRY. MUCH MILDER AIR WILL ALSO
SPREAD NORTHWARD. THIS WILL SET UP A FEW VERY MILD DAYS FOR MID TO
LATE DECEMBER WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S ON MONDAY AND AROUND 60 BY
TUESDAY. GUIDANCE IS HIGHER WITH TEMPERATURES INTO TUESDAY...BUT
OPTED TO STAY JUST UNDER THESE NUMBERS AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS COULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH
THE SOUTHERN STREAM WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY PUSH
NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...AS IT QUICKLY
DEEPENS. LATEST 00Z ECMWF HAS SLOWED EVERYTHING DOWN A BIT INTO THE
DAY WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER EVOLUTION
WITH THE FORECAST. REGARDLESS...THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND A VERY STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. STRONG FORCING WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AS THE FRONT
PUSHES EAST. THE STRONG DYNAMICS ALONE COULD SUPPORT SOME THUNDER
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT OPTED TO LEAVE IT
OUT FOR ONE MORE FORECAST CYCLE AND SEE IF MODELS MIGHT SHOW MORE
SUPPORT IN THE NEXT FEW RUNS. GOING TO BE QUITE WINDY AS WELL
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS. SOME WIND
GUSTS UP TO 35 OR 40 MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE. STAYED ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT (AROUND 50) AS WE SHOULD STAY WELL MIXED AHEAD OF
SUCH A STRONG FRONT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY AS THE
FRONT WILL BRING CRASHING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. A
SECOND WAVE WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...KEEPING PRECIPITATION GOING. THE COLD AIR WILL BRING A
TRANSITION OVER SNOW AS WE HEAD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WHILE TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...IF SNOWFALL RATES CAN GET GOOD ENOUGH...WE COULD SEE A
LIGHT COATING BY LATE IN THE DAY IN SOME AREAS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
MODELS ARE SHOWING A FASTER EXIT OF THE MOISTURE...SO THE WINDOW FOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT BIG. THUS...ANY ACCUMULATION
WILL REMAIN LIGHT...LIKELY UNDER AN INCH...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE
HIGHER RIDGES WHERE AN EARLIER TRANSITION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

BY CHRISTMAS...RIDGING SPREADS BACK INTO THE AREA...SETTING UP A
QUITE CHRISTMAS DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY
INTO THE LOW 40S. OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE BY
FRIDAY...BUT THE TRACK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF
KENTUCKY AT THIS TIME...WHICH WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT ALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
THIS WILL ALSO MEAN MILDER WEATHER RETURNS FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...BEFORE A RETURN TO COLDER WEATHER BY NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

TAF FORECAST REMAINS A CHALLENGE IN REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION ONSET
NEAR LOZ AND SME AND THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF ANY PRECIP THAT DOES
FORM. BASED ON SURROUNDING OBS AND THE LATEST MODEL DATA...IT APPEARS
THAT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL THE WORST WE SEE AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...AR








000
FXUS63 KJKL 200806
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
306 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE LATEST RUNS OF MOST OF THE FORECAST MODELS HAVE PICKED UP ON THE
FACT THAT LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY SO FAR THIS MORNING. SURFACE OBS FROM
AROUND THE STATE OF KENTUCKY HAVE BEEN SHOWING NO MEASURABLE PRECIP
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
HAS BEEN PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...BUT NO MUCH MORE THAN THAT THUS FAR. WITH THIS SYSTEM
QUICKLY PULLING OFF TO THE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...AND WITH NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...THE CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AT ANY POINT DURING
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD OR DURING THE DAY TODAY. THAT
BEING SAID...HAVE LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM NOW THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BY QUITE A BIT...AND HAVE THE ENTIRE AREA PRECIP
FREE BY 18Z. THE ONLY REASON EVEN LOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE LEFT IN
THE FORECAST IS THE FACT THAT A NUMBER OF PRECIP TYPE ECHOES ARE
STILL SHOWING UP ON RADAR IMAGERY FROM AROUND THE AREA. ALSO...THE
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE STILL SHOWING A VERY SMALL CHANCE THAT SOME
MEASURABLE PRECIP COULD REACH THE GROUND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
WILL GO WITH THIS THINKING FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO UPDATE THE
FORECAST BEFORE THE END OF THE SHIFT IF THINGS DO NOT PAN OUT AS PLANNED.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY DUE TO
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND NORTHERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL...AS EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW SETS UP DOWNSLOPE WARMING ACROSS THE AREA AND CLOUDS THINS OUT
BEHIND THE DEPARTED UPPER LOW. HIGHS ON SUNDAY COULD TOP OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW READINGS AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 50 NORTH OF THE TENNESSEE BORDER AND ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
BE THE WEATHER MAKER ACROSS THE REGION TO END THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

ACTIVE PATTERN STILL EXPECTED THROUGH CHRISTMAS WEEK. IN
FACT...FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE PUSHING NORTHEAST ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK. NAM REMAINS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE NORTHWEST EXTENSION OF PRECIPITATION. STILL NOT
CONVINCED WE WILL OVERCOME THE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHEAST FLOW.
THUS...HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY. GFS
SEEMS TO BE CATCHING ONTO THE DOWNSLOPING THE BEST...ALTHOUGH THIS
MAY BE DUE TO THE FACT IT DOES NOT CONTAIN AS MANY SHALLOW LAYERS AS
THE NAM DOES. REGARDLESS...THE PATTERN DOES NOT SUPPORT MUCH
PRECIPITATION AND IT SHOULD BE A FAST MOVER WITH CHANCES MAINLY
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ALL RAIN AS
MILDER CONDITIONS SPREAD NORTHWARD WITH THE SYSTEM. BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY...SOUTHEAST FLOW ONLY STRENGTHENS THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...LIKELY KEEPING THE AREA DRY. MUCH MILDER AIR WILL ALSO
SPREAD NORTHWARD. THIS WILL SET UP A FEW VERY MILD DAYS FOR MID TO
LATE DECEMBER WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S ON MONDAY AND AROUND 60 BY
TUESDAY. GUIDANCE IS HIGHER WITH TEMPERATURES INTO TUESDAY...BUT
OPTED TO STAY JUST UNDER THESE NUMBERS AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS COULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH
THE SOUTHERN STREAM WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY PUSH
NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...AS IT QUICKLY
DEEPENS. LATEST 00Z ECMWF HAS SLOWED EVERYTHING DOWN A BIT INTO THE
DAY WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER EVOLUTION
WITH THE FORECAST. REGARDLESS...THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND A VERY STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. STRONG FORCING WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AS THE FRONT
PUSHES EAST. THE STRONG DYNAMICS ALONE COULD SUPPORT SOME THUNDER
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT OPTED TO LEAVE IT
OUT FOR ONE MORE FORECAST CYCLE AND SEE IF MODELS MIGHT SHOW MORE
SUPPORT IN THE NEXT FEW RUNS. GOING TO BE QUITE WINDY AS WELL
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS. SOME WIND
GUSTS UP TO 35 OR 40 MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE. STAYED ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT (AROUND 50) AS WE SHOULD STAY WELL MIXED AHEAD OF
SUCH A STRONG FRONT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY AS THE
FRONT WILL BRING CRASHING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. A
SECOND WAVE WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...KEEPING PRECIPITATION GOING. THE COLD AIR WILL BRING A
TRANSITION OVER SNOW AS WE HEAD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WHILE TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...IF SNOWFALL RATES CAN GET GOOD ENOUGH...WE COULD SEE A
LIGHT COATING BY LATE IN THE DAY IN SOME AREAS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
MODELS ARE SHOWING A FASTER EXIT OF THE MOISTURE...SO THE WINDOW FOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT BIG. THUS...ANY ACCUMULATION
WILL REMAIN LIGHT...LIKELY UNDER AN INCH...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE
HIGHER RIDGES WHERE AN EARLIER TRANSITION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

BY CHRISTMAS...RIDGING SPREADS BACK INTO THE AREA...SETTING UP A
QUITE CHRISTMAS DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY
INTO THE LOW 40S. OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE BY
FRIDAY...BUT THE TRACK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF
KENTUCKY AT THIS TIME...WHICH WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT ALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
THIS WILL ALSO MEAN MILDER WEATHER RETURNS FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...BEFORE A RETURN TO COLDER WEATHER BY NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

TAF FORECAST REMAINS A CHALLENGE IN REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION ONSET
NEAR LOZ AND SME AND THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF ANY PRECIP THAT DOES
FORM. BASED ON SURROUNDING OBS AND THE LATEST MODEL DATA...IT APPEARS
THAT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL THE WORST WE SEE AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...AR







000
FXUS63 KJKL 200607
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
107 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 106 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

JUST UPDATED THE FORECAST GRIDS WITH THE LATEST HOURLY OBSERVATIONAL
DATA TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS. THE FORECAST IS HOLDING TRUE SO FAR
WITH REGARD TO TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER. THE LATEST SURFACE OBS
ARE SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND
ANYWHERE IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. BASED ON THE RETURNS SHOWING UP IN
RADAR...HOWEVER...AM HOPEFUL THAT WET BULBING WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN AND
OR SNOW TO BEGIN REACHING THE GROUND IN OUR COUNTIES SOUTH OF THE HAL
ROGERS PARKWAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1047 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE CLOUD COVER FINALLY
STARTING TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME WEAK RADAR RETURNS
FINALLY MAKING IT INTO SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. ADJUSTED THE FORECAST
TO INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER FOR THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA. THE
ONLY OTHER FACTOR THAT NEEDED ADJUSTED WAS THE TEMPERATURES. STILL A
FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER HANGING AROUND TILL A BIT LATER IN THE
NIGHT HAS RESULTED IN SOME OF THE VALLEYS DROPPING OFF A BIT LOWER
AND HAVE ADJUSTED LOW TEMPS FOR TONIGHT. WITH THIS...SNOW FROM THE
INCOMING SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL LAST A LITTLE LONGER INTO THE
AFTER DAWN HOURS. THIS PRECIP IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT SO
ACCUMULATIONS WILL STILL BE A DUSTING AT MOST. AS OF 0330Z...IN
WESTERN KY...PRECIP IS DEVELOPING A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND MOVING
NORTHEAST...AT THIS POINT...NOT A LOT OF THAT IS REACHING THE SURFACE
AND MODELS STILL HAVE THIS ACTIVITY FIZZLING OUT BEFORE IT MAKES IT
INTO NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE PRECIP OUT IN
THE NORTH BUT THIS AREA OF PRECIP NEEDS TO BE MONITORED. A NEW ZFP
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE UPDATES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

SO FAR THIS EVENING THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
HOW FAR TEMPS WILL FALL IN THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT BEFORE THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF EASTERN KY MOVE OVER THE AREA. THIS OCCURRENCE WILL
LIKELY CAUSE TEMPS TO BECOME STEADY AND HOLD NEAR THE FREEZING MARK
FOR LOWS OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...THESE LOW TEMPS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK BUT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR DRASTIC CHANGES IN TEMPS ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP TOWARDS DAWN. THIS EVENINGS UPDATE WILL NOT
REQUIRE A NEW ZFP.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL OF THE WX OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY. THE LOWER CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHEAST ARE FINALLY
RESPONDING TO THE DRIER AIR FROM THIS HIGH BY ERODING OFF BENEATH A
LAYER OF HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING IN AND THICKENING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA VARY FROM THE CHILLY LOW 30S IN THE
NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. MEANWHILE...WITH LIGHT
WINDS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...DEW POINTS VARY FROM THE LOW 20S NORTH
TO THE MID 20S SOUTH.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COUPLE OF
DAMPENING WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48
HOURS. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WHILE A BIT BETTER DEFINED ONE WILL MOVE
JUST NORTH OF EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. THE MODELS ALSO CONTINUED THEIR TREND OF THESE WAVES BEING
WEAKER AND OF LESS SUBSTANCE. LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...HEIGHTS WILL
RISE AHEAD OF THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE
FOLLOWED A BLENDED SOLUTION AND LEANED MORE CLOSELY TO THE NAM12 AND
HRRR.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE CLOUDS THICKENING AND LOWERING THROUGH
THE NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN MOVING INTO OUR
SOUTHERNMOST AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY QPF
OUT OF THIS WITH MOST OF THE PCPN FALLING AS JUST VIRGA OR
FLURRIES/SPRINKLES. GIVEN THE DRY DEW POINTS THE PCPN RATE WILL LIKELY
NOT FALL FAST ENOUGH TO CONTRIBUTE TO WETBULBING...KEEPING IT AS
LIQUID LONGER THAN NORMAL IN THESE TYPE OF SITUATIONS. THE WEAK
SOUTHERN WAVE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM KENTUCKY BY NOON SATURDAY WITH EVEN
SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE BEFORE EVENING. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A TRICKY
TEMPERATURE FORECAST INTO SATURDAY WITH A WIDE VARIANCE BETWEEN THE
COOLER MET NUMBERS AND THE MUCH MILDER MAV ONES. AS WE ARE LEANING
MORE TOWARD THE STILL RATHER DRY NAM12 SOLUTION WILL ALSO FAVOR THE
COOLER MET MAX T NUMBERS. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT FOLLOWS INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS SOME CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE WEST.

AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS FOR THE FIRST 20 HOURS OR SO BEFORE POPULATING WITH THE
SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE FOR TERRAIN
EFFECTS BOTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE CLOUDS...BUT DID
DROP THE MAXT DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE TOO WARM BLEND. AS
FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE WETTER MET AND DRY MAV
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND THEN DRY ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE THE STORY FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. SUNDAY DOES LOOK QUIET FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THROUGH THE DAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS SYSTEM ONE WHICH
WILL COME FROM THE SOUTHERN BRANCH AND WILL BRING BEST CHANCES OF ALL
RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS NE
BUT THERE IS QUESTIONS AS TO THE PHASING OF THIS SOUTHERN AND
IMPENDING NORTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM. GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

THEN FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE NORTHERN SYSTEM AS UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE
STILL NOT IN AGREEMENT ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS SYSTEM IN TERMS OF
TIMING AND EVOLUTION. THE GFS DEVELOPS A SECONDARY LOW LATER THAT
MOVES NE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF
DEVELOPS A LOW ACROSS TN AND OH VALLEY THEN MOVES IT STRAIGHT NE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE TIMING AND EVOLUTION ISSUES WILL PLAY A ROLE IN
HOW MUCH PRECIP AND PRECIP TYPES. EITHER WAY THINKING WEDNESDAY WE
WILL SEE RAIN/SNOW TO SNOW AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE NIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION...HOWEVER IT DOES LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE
MORE WRAP AROUND LATER WEDNESDAY. THE WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD DIE DOWN AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY WITH SYSTEM
TRACKING INTO THE FAR NE US BY THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OFF TO THE SOUTH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE
SE US THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO RETURN FLOW AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOWER 50S BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

TAF FORECAST REMAINS A CHALLENGE IN REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION ONSET
NEAR LOZ AND SME AND THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF ANY PRECIP THAT DOES
FORM. BASED ON SURROUNDING OBS AND THE LATEST MODEL DATA...IT APPEARS
THAT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL THE WORST WE SEE AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...AR







000
FXUS63 KJKL 200607
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
107 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 106 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

JUST UPDATED THE FORECAST GRIDS WITH THE LATEST HOURLY OBSERVATIONAL
DATA TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS. THE FORECAST IS HOLDING TRUE SO FAR
WITH REGARD TO TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER. THE LATEST SURFACE OBS
ARE SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND
ANYWHERE IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. BASED ON THE RETURNS SHOWING UP IN
RADAR...HOWEVER...AM HOPEFUL THAT WET BULBING WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN AND
OR SNOW TO BEGIN REACHING THE GROUND IN OUR COUNTIES SOUTH OF THE HAL
ROGERS PARKWAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1047 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE CLOUD COVER FINALLY
STARTING TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME WEAK RADAR RETURNS
FINALLY MAKING IT INTO SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. ADJUSTED THE FORECAST
TO INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER FOR THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA. THE
ONLY OTHER FACTOR THAT NEEDED ADJUSTED WAS THE TEMPERATURES. STILL A
FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER HANGING AROUND TILL A BIT LATER IN THE
NIGHT HAS RESULTED IN SOME OF THE VALLEYS DROPPING OFF A BIT LOWER
AND HAVE ADJUSTED LOW TEMPS FOR TONIGHT. WITH THIS...SNOW FROM THE
INCOMING SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL LAST A LITTLE LONGER INTO THE
AFTER DAWN HOURS. THIS PRECIP IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT SO
ACCUMULATIONS WILL STILL BE A DUSTING AT MOST. AS OF 0330Z...IN
WESTERN KY...PRECIP IS DEVELOPING A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND MOVING
NORTHEAST...AT THIS POINT...NOT A LOT OF THAT IS REACHING THE SURFACE
AND MODELS STILL HAVE THIS ACTIVITY FIZZLING OUT BEFORE IT MAKES IT
INTO NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE PRECIP OUT IN
THE NORTH BUT THIS AREA OF PRECIP NEEDS TO BE MONITORED. A NEW ZFP
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE UPDATES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

SO FAR THIS EVENING THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
HOW FAR TEMPS WILL FALL IN THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT BEFORE THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF EASTERN KY MOVE OVER THE AREA. THIS OCCURRENCE WILL
LIKELY CAUSE TEMPS TO BECOME STEADY AND HOLD NEAR THE FREEZING MARK
FOR LOWS OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...THESE LOW TEMPS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK BUT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR DRASTIC CHANGES IN TEMPS ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP TOWARDS DAWN. THIS EVENINGS UPDATE WILL NOT
REQUIRE A NEW ZFP.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL OF THE WX OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY. THE LOWER CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHEAST ARE FINALLY
RESPONDING TO THE DRIER AIR FROM THIS HIGH BY ERODING OFF BENEATH A
LAYER OF HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING IN AND THICKENING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA VARY FROM THE CHILLY LOW 30S IN THE
NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. MEANWHILE...WITH LIGHT
WINDS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...DEW POINTS VARY FROM THE LOW 20S NORTH
TO THE MID 20S SOUTH.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COUPLE OF
DAMPENING WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48
HOURS. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WHILE A BIT BETTER DEFINED ONE WILL MOVE
JUST NORTH OF EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. THE MODELS ALSO CONTINUED THEIR TREND OF THESE WAVES BEING
WEAKER AND OF LESS SUBSTANCE. LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...HEIGHTS WILL
RISE AHEAD OF THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE
FOLLOWED A BLENDED SOLUTION AND LEANED MORE CLOSELY TO THE NAM12 AND
HRRR.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE CLOUDS THICKENING AND LOWERING THROUGH
THE NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN MOVING INTO OUR
SOUTHERNMOST AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY QPF
OUT OF THIS WITH MOST OF THE PCPN FALLING AS JUST VIRGA OR
FLURRIES/SPRINKLES. GIVEN THE DRY DEW POINTS THE PCPN RATE WILL LIKELY
NOT FALL FAST ENOUGH TO CONTRIBUTE TO WETBULBING...KEEPING IT AS
LIQUID LONGER THAN NORMAL IN THESE TYPE OF SITUATIONS. THE WEAK
SOUTHERN WAVE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM KENTUCKY BY NOON SATURDAY WITH EVEN
SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE BEFORE EVENING. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A TRICKY
TEMPERATURE FORECAST INTO SATURDAY WITH A WIDE VARIANCE BETWEEN THE
COOLER MET NUMBERS AND THE MUCH MILDER MAV ONES. AS WE ARE LEANING
MORE TOWARD THE STILL RATHER DRY NAM12 SOLUTION WILL ALSO FAVOR THE
COOLER MET MAX T NUMBERS. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT FOLLOWS INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS SOME CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE WEST.

AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS FOR THE FIRST 20 HOURS OR SO BEFORE POPULATING WITH THE
SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE FOR TERRAIN
EFFECTS BOTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE CLOUDS...BUT DID
DROP THE MAXT DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE TOO WARM BLEND. AS
FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE WETTER MET AND DRY MAV
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND THEN DRY ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE THE STORY FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. SUNDAY DOES LOOK QUIET FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THROUGH THE DAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS SYSTEM ONE WHICH
WILL COME FROM THE SOUTHERN BRANCH AND WILL BRING BEST CHANCES OF ALL
RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS NE
BUT THERE IS QUESTIONS AS TO THE PHASING OF THIS SOUTHERN AND
IMPENDING NORTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM. GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

THEN FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE NORTHERN SYSTEM AS UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE
STILL NOT IN AGREEMENT ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS SYSTEM IN TERMS OF
TIMING AND EVOLUTION. THE GFS DEVELOPS A SECONDARY LOW LATER THAT
MOVES NE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF
DEVELOPS A LOW ACROSS TN AND OH VALLEY THEN MOVES IT STRAIGHT NE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE TIMING AND EVOLUTION ISSUES WILL PLAY A ROLE IN
HOW MUCH PRECIP AND PRECIP TYPES. EITHER WAY THINKING WEDNESDAY WE
WILL SEE RAIN/SNOW TO SNOW AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE NIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION...HOWEVER IT DOES LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE
MORE WRAP AROUND LATER WEDNESDAY. THE WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD DIE DOWN AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY WITH SYSTEM
TRACKING INTO THE FAR NE US BY THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OFF TO THE SOUTH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE
SE US THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO RETURN FLOW AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOWER 50S BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

TAF FORECAST REMAINS A CHALLENGE IN REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION ONSET
NEAR LOZ AND SME AND THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF ANY PRECIP THAT DOES
FORM. BASED ON SURROUNDING OBS AND THE LATEST MODEL DATA...IT APPEARS
THAT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL THE WORST WE SEE AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...AR








000
FXUS63 KJKL 200347
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1047 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE CLOUD COVER FINALLY
STARTING TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME WEAK RADAR RETURNS
FINALLY MAKING IT INTO SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. ADJUSTED THE FORECAST
TO INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER FOR THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA. THE
ONLY OTHER FACTOR THAT NEEDED ADJUSTED WAS THE TEMPERATURES. STILL A
FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER HANGING AROUND TILL A BIT LATER IN THE
NIGHT HAS RESULTED IN SOME OF THE VALLEYS DROPPING OFF A BIT LOWER
AND HAVE ADJUSTED LOW TEMPS FOR TONIGHT. WITH THIS...SNOW FROM THE
INCOMING SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL LAST A LITTLE LONGER INTO THE
AFTER DAWN HOURS. THIS PRECIP IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT SO
ACCUMULATIONS WILL STILL BE A DUSTING AT MOST. AS OF 0330Z...IN
WESTERN KY...PRECIP IS DEVELOPING A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND MOVING
NORTHEAST...AT THIS POINT...NOT ALOT OF THAT IS REACHING THE SURFACE
AND MODELS STILL HAVE THIS ACTIVITY FIZZLING OUT BEFORE IT MAKES IT
INTO NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE PRECIP OUT IN
THE NORTH BUT THIS AREA OF PRECIP NEEDS TO BE MONITORED. A NEW ZFP
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE UPDATES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

SO FAR THIS EVENING THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
HOW FAR TEMPS WILL FALL IN THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT BEFORE THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF EASTERN KY MOVE OVER THE AREA. THIS OCCURRENCE WILL
LIKELY CAUSE TEMPS TO BECOME STEADY AND HOLD NEAR THE FREEZING MARK
FOR LOWS OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...THESE LOW TEMPS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK BUT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR DRASTIC CHANGES IN TEMPS ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP TOWARDS DAWN. THIS EVENINGS UPDATE WILL NOT
REQUIRE A NEW ZFP.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL OF THE WX OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY. THE LOWER CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHEAST ARE FINALLY
RESPONDING TO THE DRIER AIR FROM THIS HIGH BY ERODING OFF BENEATH A
LAYER OF HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING IN AND THICKENING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA VARY FROM THE CHILLY LOW 30S IN THE
NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. MEANWHILE...WITH LIGHT
WINDS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...DEWPOINTS VARY FROM THE LOW 20S NORTH
TO THE MID 20S SOUTH.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COUPLE OF
DAMPENING WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48
HOURS. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WHILE A BIT BETTER DEFINED ONE WILL MOVE
JUST NORTH OF EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. THE MODELS ALSO CONTINUED THEIR TREND OF THESE WAVES BEING
WEAKER AND OF LESS SUBSTANCE. LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...HEIGHTS WILL
RISE AHEAD OF THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE
FOLLOWED A BLENDED SOLUTION AND LEANED MORE CLOSELY TO THE NAM12 AND
HRRR.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE CLOUDS THICKENING AND LOWERING THROUGH
THE NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN MOVING INTO OUR
SOUTHERNMOST AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY QPF
OUT OF THIS WITH MOST OF THE PCPN FALLING AS JUST VIRGA OR
FLURRIES/SPRINKLES. GIVEN THE DRY DEWPOINTS THE PCPN RATE WILL LIKELY
NOT FALL FAST ENOUGH TO CONTRIBUTE TO WETBULBING...KEEPING IT AS
LIQUID LONGER THAN NORMAL IN THESE TYPE OF SITUATIONS. THE WEAK
SOUTHERN WAVE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM KENTUCKY BY NOON SATURDAY WITH EVEN
SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE BEFORE EVENING. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A TRICKY
TEMPERATURE FORECAST INTO SATURDAY WITH A WIDE VARIANCE BETWEEN THE
COOLER MET NUMBERS AND THE MUCH MILDER MAV ONES. AS WE ARE LEANING
MORE TOWARD THE STILL RATHER DRY NAM12 SOLUTION WILL ALSO FAVOR THE
COOLER MET MAX T NUMBERS. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT FOLLOWS INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS SOME CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE WEST.

AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS FOR THE FIRST 20 HOURS OR SO BEFORE POPULATING WITH THE
SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE FOR TERRAIN
EFFECTS BOTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE CLOUDS...BUT DID
DROP THE MAXT DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE TOO WARM BLEND. AS
FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE WETTER MET AND DRY MAV
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND THEN DRY ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE THE STORY FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. SUNDAY DOES LOOK QUIET FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THROUGH THE DAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS SYSTEM ONE WHICH
WILL COME FROM THE SOUTHERN BRANCH AND WILL BRING BEST CHANCES OF ALL
RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS NE
BUT THERE IS QUESTIONS AS TO THE PHASING OF THIS SOUTHERN AND
IMPENDING NORTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM. GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

THEN FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE NORTHERN SYSTEM AS UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE
STILL NOT IN AGREEMENT ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS SYSTEM IN TERMS OF
TIMING AND EVOLUTION. THE GFS DEVELOPS A SECONDARY LOW LATER THAT
MOVES NE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF
DEVELOPS A LOW ACROSS TN AND OH VALLEY THEN MOVES IT STRAIGHT NE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE TIMING AND EVOLUTION ISSUES WILL PLAY A ROLE IN
HOW MUCH PRECIP AND PRECIP TYPES. EITHER WAY THINKING WEDNESDAY WE
WILL SEE RAIN/SNOW TO SNOW AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE NIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION...HOWEVER IT DOES LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE
MORE WRAP AROUND LATER WEDNESDAY. THE WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD DIE DOWN AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY WITH SYSTEM
TRACKING INTO THE FAR NE US BY THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OFF TO THE SOUTH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE
SE US THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO RETURN FLOW AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOWER 50S BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

TAFS...FOR TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW WILL NOT CONTAIN FORECASTS BELOW
MVFR BUT WILL STILL BE QUITE CHALLENGING. MVFR CLOUD COVER TO THE
NORTH IN OH IS EVER SO SLOWLY CREEPING TO THE EAST. THIS SHOULD STAY
NORTH OF SYM AND SJS BUT COULD CREEP SOUTH A BIT IF THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER STREAMING UP FROM THE SOUTH IS ANY SLOWER TO MOVE
OVER THE AREA. FOR NOW MOST PLACES WILL BE VFR OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS. TOWARDS DAWN...MAINLY JKL...LOZ...AND SME WILL
SEE MVFR CLOUD COVER DUE TO PRECIP SKIRTING ALONG THE KY AND TN
BORDER AND EAST INTO EXTREME EASTERN KY. MOST PRECIP SHOULD STAY OUT
OF THE AREA BUT HAVE PUT VCSH IN MOST TAF SITES FOR THE CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS. UNLESS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES FURTHER
NORTH...MOST PLACES WILL BE MVFR IN THE SOUTH AND VFR IN THE NORTH.
ANY LOW CLOUD COVER WILL EXIT THE AREA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER







000
FXUS63 KJKL 200347
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1047 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE CLOUD COVER FINALLY
STARTING TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME WEAK RADAR RETURNS
FINALLY MAKING IT INTO SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. ADJUSTED THE FORECAST
TO INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER FOR THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA. THE
ONLY OTHER FACTOR THAT NEEDED ADJUSTED WAS THE TEMPERATURES. STILL A
FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER HANGING AROUND TILL A BIT LATER IN THE
NIGHT HAS RESULTED IN SOME OF THE VALLEYS DROPPING OFF A BIT LOWER
AND HAVE ADJUSTED LOW TEMPS FOR TONIGHT. WITH THIS...SNOW FROM THE
INCOMING SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL LAST A LITTLE LONGER INTO THE
AFTER DAWN HOURS. THIS PRECIP IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT SO
ACCUMULATIONS WILL STILL BE A DUSTING AT MOST. AS OF 0330Z...IN
WESTERN KY...PRECIP IS DEVELOPING A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND MOVING
NORTHEAST...AT THIS POINT...NOT ALOT OF THAT IS REACHING THE SURFACE
AND MODELS STILL HAVE THIS ACTIVITY FIZZLING OUT BEFORE IT MAKES IT
INTO NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE PRECIP OUT IN
THE NORTH BUT THIS AREA OF PRECIP NEEDS TO BE MONITORED. A NEW ZFP
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE UPDATES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

SO FAR THIS EVENING THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
HOW FAR TEMPS WILL FALL IN THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT BEFORE THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF EASTERN KY MOVE OVER THE AREA. THIS OCCURRENCE WILL
LIKELY CAUSE TEMPS TO BECOME STEADY AND HOLD NEAR THE FREEZING MARK
FOR LOWS OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...THESE LOW TEMPS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK BUT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR DRASTIC CHANGES IN TEMPS ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP TOWARDS DAWN. THIS EVENINGS UPDATE WILL NOT
REQUIRE A NEW ZFP.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL OF THE WX OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY. THE LOWER CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHEAST ARE FINALLY
RESPONDING TO THE DRIER AIR FROM THIS HIGH BY ERODING OFF BENEATH A
LAYER OF HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING IN AND THICKENING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA VARY FROM THE CHILLY LOW 30S IN THE
NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. MEANWHILE...WITH LIGHT
WINDS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...DEWPOINTS VARY FROM THE LOW 20S NORTH
TO THE MID 20S SOUTH.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COUPLE OF
DAMPENING WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48
HOURS. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WHILE A BIT BETTER DEFINED ONE WILL MOVE
JUST NORTH OF EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. THE MODELS ALSO CONTINUED THEIR TREND OF THESE WAVES BEING
WEAKER AND OF LESS SUBSTANCE. LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...HEIGHTS WILL
RISE AHEAD OF THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE
FOLLOWED A BLENDED SOLUTION AND LEANED MORE CLOSELY TO THE NAM12 AND
HRRR.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE CLOUDS THICKENING AND LOWERING THROUGH
THE NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN MOVING INTO OUR
SOUTHERNMOST AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY QPF
OUT OF THIS WITH MOST OF THE PCPN FALLING AS JUST VIRGA OR
FLURRIES/SPRINKLES. GIVEN THE DRY DEWPOINTS THE PCPN RATE WILL LIKELY
NOT FALL FAST ENOUGH TO CONTRIBUTE TO WETBULBING...KEEPING IT AS
LIQUID LONGER THAN NORMAL IN THESE TYPE OF SITUATIONS. THE WEAK
SOUTHERN WAVE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM KENTUCKY BY NOON SATURDAY WITH EVEN
SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE BEFORE EVENING. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A TRICKY
TEMPERATURE FORECAST INTO SATURDAY WITH A WIDE VARIANCE BETWEEN THE
COOLER MET NUMBERS AND THE MUCH MILDER MAV ONES. AS WE ARE LEANING
MORE TOWARD THE STILL RATHER DRY NAM12 SOLUTION WILL ALSO FAVOR THE
COOLER MET MAX T NUMBERS. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT FOLLOWS INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS SOME CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE WEST.

AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS FOR THE FIRST 20 HOURS OR SO BEFORE POPULATING WITH THE
SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE FOR TERRAIN
EFFECTS BOTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE CLOUDS...BUT DID
DROP THE MAXT DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE TOO WARM BLEND. AS
FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE WETTER MET AND DRY MAV
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND THEN DRY ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE THE STORY FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. SUNDAY DOES LOOK QUIET FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THROUGH THE DAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS SYSTEM ONE WHICH
WILL COME FROM THE SOUTHERN BRANCH AND WILL BRING BEST CHANCES OF ALL
RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS NE
BUT THERE IS QUESTIONS AS TO THE PHASING OF THIS SOUTHERN AND
IMPENDING NORTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM. GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

THEN FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE NORTHERN SYSTEM AS UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE
STILL NOT IN AGREEMENT ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS SYSTEM IN TERMS OF
TIMING AND EVOLUTION. THE GFS DEVELOPS A SECONDARY LOW LATER THAT
MOVES NE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF
DEVELOPS A LOW ACROSS TN AND OH VALLEY THEN MOVES IT STRAIGHT NE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE TIMING AND EVOLUTION ISSUES WILL PLAY A ROLE IN
HOW MUCH PRECIP AND PRECIP TYPES. EITHER WAY THINKING WEDNESDAY WE
WILL SEE RAIN/SNOW TO SNOW AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE NIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION...HOWEVER IT DOES LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE
MORE WRAP AROUND LATER WEDNESDAY. THE WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD DIE DOWN AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY WITH SYSTEM
TRACKING INTO THE FAR NE US BY THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OFF TO THE SOUTH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE
SE US THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO RETURN FLOW AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOWER 50S BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

TAFS...FOR TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW WILL NOT CONTAIN FORECASTS BELOW
MVFR BUT WILL STILL BE QUITE CHALLENGING. MVFR CLOUD COVER TO THE
NORTH IN OH IS EVER SO SLOWLY CREEPING TO THE EAST. THIS SHOULD STAY
NORTH OF SYM AND SJS BUT COULD CREEP SOUTH A BIT IF THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER STREAMING UP FROM THE SOUTH IS ANY SLOWER TO MOVE
OVER THE AREA. FOR NOW MOST PLACES WILL BE VFR OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS. TOWARDS DAWN...MAINLY JKL...LOZ...AND SME WILL
SEE MVFR CLOUD COVER DUE TO PRECIP SKIRTING ALONG THE KY AND TN
BORDER AND EAST INTO EXTREME EASTERN KY. MOST PRECIP SHOULD STAY OUT
OF THE AREA BUT HAVE PUT VCSH IN MOST TAF SITES FOR THE CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS. UNLESS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES FURTHER
NORTH...MOST PLACES WILL BE MVFR IN THE SOUTH AND VFR IN THE NORTH.
ANY LOW CLOUD COVER WILL EXIT THE AREA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER








000
FXUS63 KJKL 200347
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1047 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE CLOUD COVER FINALLY
STARTING TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME WEAK RADAR RETURNS
FINALLY MAKING IT INTO SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. ADJUSTED THE FORECAST
TO INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER FOR THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA. THE
ONLY OTHER FACTOR THAT NEEDED ADJUSTED WAS THE TEMPERATURES. STILL A
FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER HANGING AROUND TILL A BIT LATER IN THE
NIGHT HAS RESULTED IN SOME OF THE VALLEYS DROPPING OFF A BIT LOWER
AND HAVE ADJUSTED LOW TEMPS FOR TONIGHT. WITH THIS...SNOW FROM THE
INCOMING SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL LAST A LITTLE LONGER INTO THE
AFTER DAWN HOURS. THIS PRECIP IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT SO
ACCUMULATIONS WILL STILL BE A DUSTING AT MOST. AS OF 0330Z...IN
WESTERN KY...PRECIP IS DEVELOPING A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND MOVING
NORTHEAST...AT THIS POINT...NOT ALOT OF THAT IS REACHING THE SURFACE
AND MODELS STILL HAVE THIS ACTIVITY FIZZLING OUT BEFORE IT MAKES IT
INTO NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE PRECIP OUT IN
THE NORTH BUT THIS AREA OF PRECIP NEEDS TO BE MONITORED. A NEW ZFP
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE UPDATES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

SO FAR THIS EVENING THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
HOW FAR TEMPS WILL FALL IN THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT BEFORE THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF EASTERN KY MOVE OVER THE AREA. THIS OCCURRENCE WILL
LIKELY CAUSE TEMPS TO BECOME STEADY AND HOLD NEAR THE FREEZING MARK
FOR LOWS OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...THESE LOW TEMPS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK BUT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR DRASTIC CHANGES IN TEMPS ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP TOWARDS DAWN. THIS EVENINGS UPDATE WILL NOT
REQUIRE A NEW ZFP.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL OF THE WX OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY. THE LOWER CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHEAST ARE FINALLY
RESPONDING TO THE DRIER AIR FROM THIS HIGH BY ERODING OFF BENEATH A
LAYER OF HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING IN AND THICKENING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA VARY FROM THE CHILLY LOW 30S IN THE
NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. MEANWHILE...WITH LIGHT
WINDS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...DEWPOINTS VARY FROM THE LOW 20S NORTH
TO THE MID 20S SOUTH.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COUPLE OF
DAMPENING WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48
HOURS. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WHILE A BIT BETTER DEFINED ONE WILL MOVE
JUST NORTH OF EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. THE MODELS ALSO CONTINUED THEIR TREND OF THESE WAVES BEING
WEAKER AND OF LESS SUBSTANCE. LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...HEIGHTS WILL
RISE AHEAD OF THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE
FOLLOWED A BLENDED SOLUTION AND LEANED MORE CLOSELY TO THE NAM12 AND
HRRR.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE CLOUDS THICKENING AND LOWERING THROUGH
THE NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN MOVING INTO OUR
SOUTHERNMOST AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY QPF
OUT OF THIS WITH MOST OF THE PCPN FALLING AS JUST VIRGA OR
FLURRIES/SPRINKLES. GIVEN THE DRY DEWPOINTS THE PCPN RATE WILL LIKELY
NOT FALL FAST ENOUGH TO CONTRIBUTE TO WETBULBING...KEEPING IT AS
LIQUID LONGER THAN NORMAL IN THESE TYPE OF SITUATIONS. THE WEAK
SOUTHERN WAVE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM KENTUCKY BY NOON SATURDAY WITH EVEN
SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE BEFORE EVENING. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A TRICKY
TEMPERATURE FORECAST INTO SATURDAY WITH A WIDE VARIANCE BETWEEN THE
COOLER MET NUMBERS AND THE MUCH MILDER MAV ONES. AS WE ARE LEANING
MORE TOWARD THE STILL RATHER DRY NAM12 SOLUTION WILL ALSO FAVOR THE
COOLER MET MAX T NUMBERS. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT FOLLOWS INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS SOME CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE WEST.

AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS FOR THE FIRST 20 HOURS OR SO BEFORE POPULATING WITH THE
SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE FOR TERRAIN
EFFECTS BOTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE CLOUDS...BUT DID
DROP THE MAXT DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE TOO WARM BLEND. AS
FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE WETTER MET AND DRY MAV
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND THEN DRY ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE THE STORY FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. SUNDAY DOES LOOK QUIET FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THROUGH THE DAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS SYSTEM ONE WHICH
WILL COME FROM THE SOUTHERN BRANCH AND WILL BRING BEST CHANCES OF ALL
RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS NE
BUT THERE IS QUESTIONS AS TO THE PHASING OF THIS SOUTHERN AND
IMPENDING NORTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM. GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

THEN FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE NORTHERN SYSTEM AS UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE
STILL NOT IN AGREEMENT ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS SYSTEM IN TERMS OF
TIMING AND EVOLUTION. THE GFS DEVELOPS A SECONDARY LOW LATER THAT
MOVES NE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF
DEVELOPS A LOW ACROSS TN AND OH VALLEY THEN MOVES IT STRAIGHT NE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE TIMING AND EVOLUTION ISSUES WILL PLAY A ROLE IN
HOW MUCH PRECIP AND PRECIP TYPES. EITHER WAY THINKING WEDNESDAY WE
WILL SEE RAIN/SNOW TO SNOW AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE NIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION...HOWEVER IT DOES LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE
MORE WRAP AROUND LATER WEDNESDAY. THE WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD DIE DOWN AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY WITH SYSTEM
TRACKING INTO THE FAR NE US BY THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OFF TO THE SOUTH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE
SE US THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO RETURN FLOW AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOWER 50S BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

TAFS...FOR TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW WILL NOT CONTAIN FORECASTS BELOW
MVFR BUT WILL STILL BE QUITE CHALLENGING. MVFR CLOUD COVER TO THE
NORTH IN OH IS EVER SO SLOWLY CREEPING TO THE EAST. THIS SHOULD STAY
NORTH OF SYM AND SJS BUT COULD CREEP SOUTH A BIT IF THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER STREAMING UP FROM THE SOUTH IS ANY SLOWER TO MOVE
OVER THE AREA. FOR NOW MOST PLACES WILL BE VFR OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS. TOWARDS DAWN...MAINLY JKL...LOZ...AND SME WILL
SEE MVFR CLOUD COVER DUE TO PRECIP SKIRTING ALONG THE KY AND TN
BORDER AND EAST INTO EXTREME EASTERN KY. MOST PRECIP SHOULD STAY OUT
OF THE AREA BUT HAVE PUT VCSH IN MOST TAF SITES FOR THE CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS. UNLESS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES FURTHER
NORTH...MOST PLACES WILL BE MVFR IN THE SOUTH AND VFR IN THE NORTH.
ANY LOW CLOUD COVER WILL EXIT THE AREA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER








000
FXUS63 KJKL 200347
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1047 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE CLOUD COVER FINALLY
STARTING TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME WEAK RADAR RETURNS
FINALLY MAKING IT INTO SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. ADJUSTED THE FORECAST
TO INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER FOR THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA. THE
ONLY OTHER FACTOR THAT NEEDED ADJUSTED WAS THE TEMPERATURES. STILL A
FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER HANGING AROUND TILL A BIT LATER IN THE
NIGHT HAS RESULTED IN SOME OF THE VALLEYS DROPPING OFF A BIT LOWER
AND HAVE ADJUSTED LOW TEMPS FOR TONIGHT. WITH THIS...SNOW FROM THE
INCOMING SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL LAST A LITTLE LONGER INTO THE
AFTER DAWN HOURS. THIS PRECIP IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT SO
ACCUMULATIONS WILL STILL BE A DUSTING AT MOST. AS OF 0330Z...IN
WESTERN KY...PRECIP IS DEVELOPING A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND MOVING
NORTHEAST...AT THIS POINT...NOT ALOT OF THAT IS REACHING THE SURFACE
AND MODELS STILL HAVE THIS ACTIVITY FIZZLING OUT BEFORE IT MAKES IT
INTO NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE PRECIP OUT IN
THE NORTH BUT THIS AREA OF PRECIP NEEDS TO BE MONITORED. A NEW ZFP
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE UPDATES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

SO FAR THIS EVENING THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
HOW FAR TEMPS WILL FALL IN THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT BEFORE THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF EASTERN KY MOVE OVER THE AREA. THIS OCCURRENCE WILL
LIKELY CAUSE TEMPS TO BECOME STEADY AND HOLD NEAR THE FREEZING MARK
FOR LOWS OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...THESE LOW TEMPS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK BUT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR DRASTIC CHANGES IN TEMPS ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP TOWARDS DAWN. THIS EVENINGS UPDATE WILL NOT
REQUIRE A NEW ZFP.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL OF THE WX OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY. THE LOWER CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHEAST ARE FINALLY
RESPONDING TO THE DRIER AIR FROM THIS HIGH BY ERODING OFF BENEATH A
LAYER OF HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING IN AND THICKENING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA VARY FROM THE CHILLY LOW 30S IN THE
NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. MEANWHILE...WITH LIGHT
WINDS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...DEWPOINTS VARY FROM THE LOW 20S NORTH
TO THE MID 20S SOUTH.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COUPLE OF
DAMPENING WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48
HOURS. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WHILE A BIT BETTER DEFINED ONE WILL MOVE
JUST NORTH OF EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. THE MODELS ALSO CONTINUED THEIR TREND OF THESE WAVES BEING
WEAKER AND OF LESS SUBSTANCE. LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...HEIGHTS WILL
RISE AHEAD OF THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE
FOLLOWED A BLENDED SOLUTION AND LEANED MORE CLOSELY TO THE NAM12 AND
HRRR.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE CLOUDS THICKENING AND LOWERING THROUGH
THE NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN MOVING INTO OUR
SOUTHERNMOST AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY QPF
OUT OF THIS WITH MOST OF THE PCPN FALLING AS JUST VIRGA OR
FLURRIES/SPRINKLES. GIVEN THE DRY DEWPOINTS THE PCPN RATE WILL LIKELY
NOT FALL FAST ENOUGH TO CONTRIBUTE TO WETBULBING...KEEPING IT AS
LIQUID LONGER THAN NORMAL IN THESE TYPE OF SITUATIONS. THE WEAK
SOUTHERN WAVE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM KENTUCKY BY NOON SATURDAY WITH EVEN
SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE BEFORE EVENING. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A TRICKY
TEMPERATURE FORECAST INTO SATURDAY WITH A WIDE VARIANCE BETWEEN THE
COOLER MET NUMBERS AND THE MUCH MILDER MAV ONES. AS WE ARE LEANING
MORE TOWARD THE STILL RATHER DRY NAM12 SOLUTION WILL ALSO FAVOR THE
COOLER MET MAX T NUMBERS. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT FOLLOWS INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS SOME CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE WEST.

AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS FOR THE FIRST 20 HOURS OR SO BEFORE POPULATING WITH THE
SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE FOR TERRAIN
EFFECTS BOTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE CLOUDS...BUT DID
DROP THE MAXT DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE TOO WARM BLEND. AS
FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE WETTER MET AND DRY MAV
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND THEN DRY ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE THE STORY FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. SUNDAY DOES LOOK QUIET FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THROUGH THE DAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS SYSTEM ONE WHICH
WILL COME FROM THE SOUTHERN BRANCH AND WILL BRING BEST CHANCES OF ALL
RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS NE
BUT THERE IS QUESTIONS AS TO THE PHASING OF THIS SOUTHERN AND
IMPENDING NORTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM. GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

THEN FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE NORTHERN SYSTEM AS UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE
STILL NOT IN AGREEMENT ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS SYSTEM IN TERMS OF
TIMING AND EVOLUTION. THE GFS DEVELOPS A SECONDARY LOW LATER THAT
MOVES NE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF
DEVELOPS A LOW ACROSS TN AND OH VALLEY THEN MOVES IT STRAIGHT NE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE TIMING AND EVOLUTION ISSUES WILL PLAY A ROLE IN
HOW MUCH PRECIP AND PRECIP TYPES. EITHER WAY THINKING WEDNESDAY WE
WILL SEE RAIN/SNOW TO SNOW AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE NIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION...HOWEVER IT DOES LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE
MORE WRAP AROUND LATER WEDNESDAY. THE WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD DIE DOWN AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY WITH SYSTEM
TRACKING INTO THE FAR NE US BY THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OFF TO THE SOUTH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE
SE US THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO RETURN FLOW AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOWER 50S BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

TAFS...FOR TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW WILL NOT CONTAIN FORECASTS BELOW
MVFR BUT WILL STILL BE QUITE CHALLENGING. MVFR CLOUD COVER TO THE
NORTH IN OH IS EVER SO SLOWLY CREEPING TO THE EAST. THIS SHOULD STAY
NORTH OF SYM AND SJS BUT COULD CREEP SOUTH A BIT IF THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER STREAMING UP FROM THE SOUTH IS ANY SLOWER TO MOVE
OVER THE AREA. FOR NOW MOST PLACES WILL BE VFR OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS. TOWARDS DAWN...MAINLY JKL...LOZ...AND SME WILL
SEE MVFR CLOUD COVER DUE TO PRECIP SKIRTING ALONG THE KY AND TN
BORDER AND EAST INTO EXTREME EASTERN KY. MOST PRECIP SHOULD STAY OUT
OF THE AREA BUT HAVE PUT VCSH IN MOST TAF SITES FOR THE CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS. UNLESS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES FURTHER
NORTH...MOST PLACES WILL BE MVFR IN THE SOUTH AND VFR IN THE NORTH.
ANY LOW CLOUD COVER WILL EXIT THE AREA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER







000
FXUS63 KJKL 192340
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
640 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 639 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

SO FAR THIS EVENING THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
HOW FAR TEMPS WILL FALL IN THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT BEFORE THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF EASTERN KY MOVE OVER THE AREA. THIS OCCURRENCE WILL
LIKELY CAUSE TEMPS TO BECOME STEADY AND HOLD NEAR THE FREEZING MARK
FOR LOWS OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...THESE LOW TEMPS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK BUT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR DRASTIC CHANGES IN TEMPS ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP TOWARDS DAWN. THIS EVENINGS UPDATE WILL NOT
REQUIRE A NEW ZFP.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL OF THE WX OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY. THE LOWER CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHEAST ARE FINALLY
RESPONDING TO THE DRIER AIR FROM THIS HIGH BY ERODING OFF BENEATH A
LAYER OF HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING IN AND THICKENING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA VARY FROM THE CHILLY LOW 30S IN THE
NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. MEANWHILE...WITH LIGHT
WINDS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...DEWPOINTS VARY FROM THE LOW 20S NORTH
TO THE MID 20S SOUTH.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COUPLE OF
DAMPENING WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48
HOURS. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WHILE A BIT BETTER DEFINED ONE WILL MOVE
JUST NORTH OF EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. THE MODELS ALSO CONTINUED THEIR TREND OF THESE WAVES BEING
WEAKER AND OF LESS SUBSTANCE. LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...HEIGHTS WILL
RISE AHEAD OF THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE
FOLLOWED A BLENDED SOLUTION AND LEANED MORE CLOSELY TO THE NAM12 AND
HRRR.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE CLOUDS THICKENING AND LOWERING THROUGH
THE NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN MOVING INTO OUR
SOUTHERNMOST AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY QPF
OUT OF THIS WITH MOST OF THE PCPN FALLING AS JUST VIRGA OR
FLURRIES/SPRINKLES. GIVEN THE DRY DEWPOINTS THE PCPN RATE WILL LIKELY
NOT FALL FAST ENOUGH TO CONTRIBUTE TO WETBULBING...KEEPING IT AS
LIQUID LONGER THAN NORMAL IN THESE TYPE OF SITUATIONS. THE WEAK
SOUTHERN WAVE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM KENTUCKY BY NOON SATURDAY WITH EVEN
SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE BEFORE EVENING. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A TRICKY
TEMPERATURE FORECAST INTO SATURDAY WITH A WIDE VARIANCE BETWEEN THE
COOLER MET NUMBERS AND THE MUCH MILDER MAV ONES. AS WE ARE LEANING
MORE TOWARD THE STILL RATHER DRY NAM12 SOLUTION WILL ALSO FAVOR THE
COOLER MET MAX T NUMBERS. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT FOLLOWS INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS SOME CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE WEST.

AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS FOR THE FIRST 20 HOURS OR SO BEFORE POPULATING WITH THE
SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE FOR TERRAIN
EFFECTS BOTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE CLOUDS...BUT DID
DROP THE MAXT DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE TOO WARM BLEND. AS
FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE WETTER MET AND DRY MAV
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND THEN DRY ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE THE STORY FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. SUNDAY DOES LOOK QUIET FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THROUGH THE DAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS SYSTEM ONE WHICH
WILL COME FROM THE SOUTHERN BRANCH AND WILL BRING BEST CHANCES OF ALL
RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS NE
BUT THERE IS QUESTIONS AS TO THE PHASING OF THIS SOUTHERN AND
IMPENDING NORTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM. GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

THEN FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE NORTHERN SYSTEM AS UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE
STILL NOT IN AGREEMENT ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS SYSTEM IN TERMS OF
TIMING AND EVOLUTION. THE GFS DEVELOPS A SECONDARY LOW LATER THAT
MOVES NE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF
DEVELOPS A LOW ACROSS TN AND OH VALLEY THEN MOVES IT STRAIGHT NE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE TIMING AND EVOLUTION ISSUES WILL PLAY A ROLE IN
HOW MUCH PRECIP AND PRECIP TYPES. EITHER WAY THINKING WEDNESDAY WE
WILL SEE RAIN/SNOW TO SNOW AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE NIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION...HOWEVER IT DOES LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE
MORE WRAP AROUND LATER WEDNESDAY. THE WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD DIE DOWN AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY WITH SYSTEM
TRACKING INTO THE FAR NE US BY THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OFF TO THE SOUTH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE
SE US THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO RETURN FLOW AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOWER 50S BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

TAFS...FOR TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW WILL NOT CONTAIN FORECASTS BELOW
MVFR BUT WILL STILL BE QUITE CHALLENGING. MVFR CLOUD COVER TO THE
NORTH IN OH IS EVER SO SLOWLY CREEPING TO THE EAST. THIS SHOULD STAY
NORTH OF SYM AND SJS BUT COULD CREEP SOUTH A BIT IF THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER STREAMING UP FROM THE SOUTH IS ANY SLOWER TO MOVE
OVER THE AREA. FOR NOW MOST PLACES WILL BE VFR OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS. TOWARDS DAWN...MAINLY JKL...LOZ...AND SME WILL
SEE MVFR CLOUD COVER DUE TO PRECIP SKIRTING ALONG THE KY AND TN
BORDER AND EAST INTO EXTREME EASTERN KY. MOST PRECIP SHOULD STAY OUT
OF THE AREA BUT HAVE PUT VCSH IN MOST TAF SITES FOR THE CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS. UNLESS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES FURTHER
NORTH...MOST PLACES WILL BE MVFR IN THE SOUTH AND VFR IN THE NORTH.
ANY LOW CLOUD COVER WILL EXIT THE AREA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER








000
FXUS63 KJKL 192340
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
640 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 639 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

SO FAR THIS EVENING THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
HOW FAR TEMPS WILL FALL IN THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT BEFORE THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF EASTERN KY MOVE OVER THE AREA. THIS OCCURRENCE WILL
LIKELY CAUSE TEMPS TO BECOME STEADY AND HOLD NEAR THE FREEZING MARK
FOR LOWS OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...THESE LOW TEMPS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK BUT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR DRASTIC CHANGES IN TEMPS ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP TOWARDS DAWN. THIS EVENINGS UPDATE WILL NOT
REQUIRE A NEW ZFP.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL OF THE WX OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY. THE LOWER CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHEAST ARE FINALLY
RESPONDING TO THE DRIER AIR FROM THIS HIGH BY ERODING OFF BENEATH A
LAYER OF HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING IN AND THICKENING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA VARY FROM THE CHILLY LOW 30S IN THE
NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. MEANWHILE...WITH LIGHT
WINDS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...DEWPOINTS VARY FROM THE LOW 20S NORTH
TO THE MID 20S SOUTH.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COUPLE OF
DAMPENING WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48
HOURS. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WHILE A BIT BETTER DEFINED ONE WILL MOVE
JUST NORTH OF EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. THE MODELS ALSO CONTINUED THEIR TREND OF THESE WAVES BEING
WEAKER AND OF LESS SUBSTANCE. LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...HEIGHTS WILL
RISE AHEAD OF THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE
FOLLOWED A BLENDED SOLUTION AND LEANED MORE CLOSELY TO THE NAM12 AND
HRRR.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE CLOUDS THICKENING AND LOWERING THROUGH
THE NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN MOVING INTO OUR
SOUTHERNMOST AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY QPF
OUT OF THIS WITH MOST OF THE PCPN FALLING AS JUST VIRGA OR
FLURRIES/SPRINKLES. GIVEN THE DRY DEWPOINTS THE PCPN RATE WILL LIKELY
NOT FALL FAST ENOUGH TO CONTRIBUTE TO WETBULBING...KEEPING IT AS
LIQUID LONGER THAN NORMAL IN THESE TYPE OF SITUATIONS. THE WEAK
SOUTHERN WAVE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM KENTUCKY BY NOON SATURDAY WITH EVEN
SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE BEFORE EVENING. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A TRICKY
TEMPERATURE FORECAST INTO SATURDAY WITH A WIDE VARIANCE BETWEEN THE
COOLER MET NUMBERS AND THE MUCH MILDER MAV ONES. AS WE ARE LEANING
MORE TOWARD THE STILL RATHER DRY NAM12 SOLUTION WILL ALSO FAVOR THE
COOLER MET MAX T NUMBERS. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT FOLLOWS INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS SOME CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE WEST.

AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS FOR THE FIRST 20 HOURS OR SO BEFORE POPULATING WITH THE
SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE FOR TERRAIN
EFFECTS BOTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE CLOUDS...BUT DID
DROP THE MAXT DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE TOO WARM BLEND. AS
FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE WETTER MET AND DRY MAV
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND THEN DRY ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE THE STORY FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. SUNDAY DOES LOOK QUIET FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THROUGH THE DAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS SYSTEM ONE WHICH
WILL COME FROM THE SOUTHERN BRANCH AND WILL BRING BEST CHANCES OF ALL
RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS NE
BUT THERE IS QUESTIONS AS TO THE PHASING OF THIS SOUTHERN AND
IMPENDING NORTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM. GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

THEN FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE NORTHERN SYSTEM AS UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE
STILL NOT IN AGREEMENT ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS SYSTEM IN TERMS OF
TIMING AND EVOLUTION. THE GFS DEVELOPS A SECONDARY LOW LATER THAT
MOVES NE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF
DEVELOPS A LOW ACROSS TN AND OH VALLEY THEN MOVES IT STRAIGHT NE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE TIMING AND EVOLUTION ISSUES WILL PLAY A ROLE IN
HOW MUCH PRECIP AND PRECIP TYPES. EITHER WAY THINKING WEDNESDAY WE
WILL SEE RAIN/SNOW TO SNOW AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE NIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION...HOWEVER IT DOES LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE
MORE WRAP AROUND LATER WEDNESDAY. THE WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD DIE DOWN AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY WITH SYSTEM
TRACKING INTO THE FAR NE US BY THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OFF TO THE SOUTH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE
SE US THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO RETURN FLOW AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOWER 50S BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

TAFS...FOR TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW WILL NOT CONTAIN FORECASTS BELOW
MVFR BUT WILL STILL BE QUITE CHALLENGING. MVFR CLOUD COVER TO THE
NORTH IN OH IS EVER SO SLOWLY CREEPING TO THE EAST. THIS SHOULD STAY
NORTH OF SYM AND SJS BUT COULD CREEP SOUTH A BIT IF THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER STREAMING UP FROM THE SOUTH IS ANY SLOWER TO MOVE
OVER THE AREA. FOR NOW MOST PLACES WILL BE VFR OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS. TOWARDS DAWN...MAINLY JKL...LOZ...AND SME WILL
SEE MVFR CLOUD COVER DUE TO PRECIP SKIRTING ALONG THE KY AND TN
BORDER AND EAST INTO EXTREME EASTERN KY. MOST PRECIP SHOULD STAY OUT
OF THE AREA BUT HAVE PUT VCSH IN MOST TAF SITES FOR THE CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS. UNLESS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES FURTHER
NORTH...MOST PLACES WILL BE MVFR IN THE SOUTH AND VFR IN THE NORTH.
ANY LOW CLOUD COVER WILL EXIT THE AREA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER







000
FXUS63 KJKL 192054
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
354 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL OF THE WX OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY. THE LOWER CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHEAST ARE FINALLY
RESPONDING TO THE DRIER AIR FROM THIS HIGH BY ERODING OFF BENEATH A
LAYER OF HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING IN AND THICKENING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA VARY FROM THE CHILLY LOW 30S IN THE
NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. MEANWHILE...WITH LIGHT
WINDS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...DEWPOINTS VARY FROM THE LOW 20S NORTH
TO THE MID 20S SOUTH.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COUPLE OF
DAMPENING WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48
HOURS. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WHILE A BIT BETTER DEFINED ONE WILL MOVE
JUST NORTH OF EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. THE MODELS ALSO CONTINUED THEIR TREND OF THESE WAVES BEING
WEAKER AND OF LESS SUBSTANCE. LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...HEIGHTS WILL
RISE AHEAD OF THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE
FOLLOWED A BLENDED SOLUTION AND LEANED MORE CLOSELY TO THE NAM12 AND
HRRR.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE CLOUDS THICKENING AND LOWERING THROUGH
THE NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN MOVING INTO OUR
SOUTHERNMOST AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY QPF
OUT OF THIS WITH MOST OF THE PCPN FALLING AS JUST VIRGA OR
FLURRIES/SPRINKLES. GIVEN THE DRY DEWPOINTS THE PCPN RATE WILL LIKELY
NOT FALL FAST ENOUGH TO CONTRIBUTE TO WETBULBING...KEEPING IT AS
LIQUID LONGER THAN NORMAL IN THESE TYPE OF SITUATIONS. THE WEAK
SOUTHERN WAVE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM KENTUCKY BY NOON SATURDAY WITH EVEN
SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE BEFORE EVENING. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A TRICKY
TEMPERATURE FORECAST INTO SATURDAY WITH A WIDE VARIANCE BETWEEN THE
COOLER MET NUMBERS AND THE MUCH MILDER MAV ONES. AS WE ARE LEANING
MORE TOWARD THE STILL RATHER DRY NAM12 SOLUTION WILL ALSO FAVOR THE
COOLER MET MAX T NUMBERS. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT FOLLOWS INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS SOME CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE WEST.

AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS FOR THE FIRST 20 HOURS OR SO BEFORE POPULATING WITH THE
SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE FOR TERRAIN
EFFECTS BOTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE CLOUDS...BUT DID
DROP THE MAXT DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE TOO WARM BLEND. AS
FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE WETTER MET AND DRY MAV
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND THEN DRY ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE THE STORY FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. SUNDAY DOES LOOK QUIET FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THROUGH THE DAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS SYSTEM ONE WHICH
WILL COME FROM THE SOUTHERN BRANCH AND WILL BRING BEST CHANCES OF ALL
RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS NE
BUT THERE IS QUESTIONS AS TO THE PHASING OF THIS SOUTHERN AND
IMPENDING NORTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM. GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

THEN FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE NORTHERN SYSTEM AS UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE
STILL NOT IN AGREEMENT ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS SYSTEM IN TERMS OF
TIMING AND EVOLUTION. THE GFS DEVELOPS A SECONDARY LOW LATER THAT
MOVES NE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF
DEVELOPS A LOW ACROSS TN AND OH VALLEY THEN MOVES IT STRAIGHT NE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE TIMING AND EVOLUTION ISSUES WILL PLAY A ROLE IN
HOW MUCH PRECIP AND PRECIP TYPES. EITHER WAY THINKING WEDNESDAY WE
WILL SEE RAIN/SNOW TO SNOW AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE NIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION...HOWEVER IT DOES LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE
MORE WRAP AROUND LATER WEDNESDAY. THE WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD DIE DOWN AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY WITH SYSTEM
TRACKING INTO THE FAR NE US BY THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OFF TO THE SOUTH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE
SE US THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO RETURN FLOW AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOWER 50S BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

LOW...MVFR...CLOUDS ARE LINGERING OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE
AREA WITH JUST HIGH CLOUDS SEEN ELSEWHERE. EXPECT THE NORTHEAST
CLOUDS TO BREAK UP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HIGHER CLOUDS SLOWLY
START TO THICKEN AND DESCEND. THESE CLOUDS ARE COMING FROM WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS LOW WILL BRUSH BY
EASTERN KENTUCKY LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SATURDAY. CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW OVER OUR SOUTHERNMOST PARTS OF THE AREA
WITH MAYBE A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY FURTHER TO THE NORTH. IN THE SOUTH WE
COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS RETURN AS THE MAIN SYSTEM PASSES LATE
TONIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GREIF









000
FXUS63 KJKL 192054
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
354 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL OF THE WX OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY. THE LOWER CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHEAST ARE FINALLY
RESPONDING TO THE DRIER AIR FROM THIS HIGH BY ERODING OFF BENEATH A
LAYER OF HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING IN AND THICKENING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA VARY FROM THE CHILLY LOW 30S IN THE
NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. MEANWHILE...WITH LIGHT
WINDS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...DEWPOINTS VARY FROM THE LOW 20S NORTH
TO THE MID 20S SOUTH.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COUPLE OF
DAMPENING WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48
HOURS. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WHILE A BIT BETTER DEFINED ONE WILL MOVE
JUST NORTH OF EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. THE MODELS ALSO CONTINUED THEIR TREND OF THESE WAVES BEING
WEAKER AND OF LESS SUBSTANCE. LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...HEIGHTS WILL
RISE AHEAD OF THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE
FOLLOWED A BLENDED SOLUTION AND LEANED MORE CLOSELY TO THE NAM12 AND
HRRR.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE CLOUDS THICKENING AND LOWERING THROUGH
THE NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN MOVING INTO OUR
SOUTHERNMOST AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY QPF
OUT OF THIS WITH MOST OF THE PCPN FALLING AS JUST VIRGA OR
FLURRIES/SPRINKLES. GIVEN THE DRY DEWPOINTS THE PCPN RATE WILL LIKELY
NOT FALL FAST ENOUGH TO CONTRIBUTE TO WETBULBING...KEEPING IT AS
LIQUID LONGER THAN NORMAL IN THESE TYPE OF SITUATIONS. THE WEAK
SOUTHERN WAVE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM KENTUCKY BY NOON SATURDAY WITH EVEN
SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE BEFORE EVENING. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A TRICKY
TEMPERATURE FORECAST INTO SATURDAY WITH A WIDE VARIANCE BETWEEN THE
COOLER MET NUMBERS AND THE MUCH MILDER MAV ONES. AS WE ARE LEANING
MORE TOWARD THE STILL RATHER DRY NAM12 SOLUTION WILL ALSO FAVOR THE
COOLER MET MAX T NUMBERS. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT FOLLOWS INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS SOME CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE WEST.

AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS FOR THE FIRST 20 HOURS OR SO BEFORE POPULATING WITH THE
SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE FOR TERRAIN
EFFECTS BOTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE CLOUDS...BUT DID
DROP THE MAXT DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE TOO WARM BLEND. AS
FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE WETTER MET AND DRY MAV
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND THEN DRY ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE THE STORY FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. SUNDAY DOES LOOK QUIET FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THROUGH THE DAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS SYSTEM ONE WHICH
WILL COME FROM THE SOUTHERN BRANCH AND WILL BRING BEST CHANCES OF ALL
RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS NE
BUT THERE IS QUESTIONS AS TO THE PHASING OF THIS SOUTHERN AND
IMPENDING NORTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM. GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

THEN FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE NORTHERN SYSTEM AS UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE
STILL NOT IN AGREEMENT ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS SYSTEM IN TERMS OF
TIMING AND EVOLUTION. THE GFS DEVELOPS A SECONDARY LOW LATER THAT
MOVES NE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF
DEVELOPS A LOW ACROSS TN AND OH VALLEY THEN MOVES IT STRAIGHT NE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE TIMING AND EVOLUTION ISSUES WILL PLAY A ROLE IN
HOW MUCH PRECIP AND PRECIP TYPES. EITHER WAY THINKING WEDNESDAY WE
WILL SEE RAIN/SNOW TO SNOW AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE NIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION...HOWEVER IT DOES LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE
MORE WRAP AROUND LATER WEDNESDAY. THE WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD DIE DOWN AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY WITH SYSTEM
TRACKING INTO THE FAR NE US BY THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OFF TO THE SOUTH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE
SE US THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO RETURN FLOW AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOWER 50S BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

LOW...MVFR...CLOUDS ARE LINGERING OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE
AREA WITH JUST HIGH CLOUDS SEEN ELSEWHERE. EXPECT THE NORTHEAST
CLOUDS TO BREAK UP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HIGHER CLOUDS SLOWLY
START TO THICKEN AND DESCEND. THESE CLOUDS ARE COMING FROM WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS LOW WILL BRUSH BY
EASTERN KENTUCKY LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SATURDAY. CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW OVER OUR SOUTHERNMOST PARTS OF THE AREA
WITH MAYBE A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY FURTHER TO THE NORTH. IN THE SOUTH WE
COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS RETURN AS THE MAIN SYSTEM PASSES LATE
TONIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GREIF










000
FXUS63 KJKL 191845 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
145 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 145 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO FINE TUNE HIGH TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. ALSO NUDGED HOURLY TEMPERATURES
PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND
WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1050 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

15Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN OHIO
VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST. TO THE SOUTH A WEAK LOW IS FOUND IN THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LOCALLY...LOW CLOUDS PLAGUE MUCH OF THE
CWA MAINLY IN THE NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS...BENEATH ARRIVING MID
LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 20S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 20S
WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS MAINLY TO FINE TUNE THE
SKY COVER AND ALSO THE HOURLY T/TD ONES PER THE LATEST OBS...
TRENDS...AND BCCONSSHORT GUIDANCE. THE FRESHENED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT
TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 733 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ON TRACK SO FAR THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING THAT CLOUD COVER IS FINALLY STARTING TO BREAK UP A BIT ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE MORE CLOUDS BEGIN MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM. THE LATEST HOURLY OBS DATA WAS INGESTED
INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS AND FRESHEN UP THE
DATA. ASIDE FROM THAT NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE OR NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL START OFF RATHER QUIET AS
WEAK RIDGE OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE REGION.
LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AS
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS
TO MOVE IN OUR DIRECTION. THIS NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN AFFECTING OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES SOMETIME DURING THE PRE
DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
WILL PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH. THE TREND IN THE MODEL DATA THE PAST FEW
RUNS HAS BEEN TO MOVE THIS LOW FURTHER AND FURTHER SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
THAT BEING SAID...THE NEW FORECAST WAS TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION
BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS. THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ON SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE JUST COLD
ENOUGH AND AROUND JUST LONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A MIX AND RAIN AND
SNOW. CONSIDERING THE LACK OF GOOD ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH AVAILABLE...AND
LACK OF STRONG LIFT...AND THE FACT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE
IDEAL FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR DAY TIME
HIGHS DUE TO PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. IN GENERAL...DAY TIME HIGHS TODAY AND SATURDAY
SHOULD MAX OUT FROM THE UPPER 30S IN OUR NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH
OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY. TONIGHTS LOW SHOULD FALL TO AROUND FOR
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH THE WARMER READINGS SOUTH OF THE HAL
ROGERS...AND A FEW MID 20S READINGS POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-64.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. FORTUNATELY...THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH A DRY END
EXPECTED TO THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING NORTH ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR
NORTHWEST PRECIPITATION WILL EXTEND AND WHAT SOUTHEAST DOWN SLOPING
WINDS WILL PLAY ON PRECIPITATION TRYING TO SPREAD INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. WE MAY FIND IT DIFFICULT TO SATURATE UP ENOUGH TO ALLOW
FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THUS...WILL STAY IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALL RAIN AS MILDER AIR SURGES NORTHWARD WITH
THIS SYSTEM. AS THIS WAVE DEPARTS...NOT MUCH FORCING TO SUPPORT MUCH
BY LATE IN THE DAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...A DEEP LOW
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND TRACK INTO THE GREAT
LAKES INTO TUESDAY COULD CLIP OUR AREA WITH SOME WEAK FORCING FROM
TIME TO TIME. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN SOME VERY LOW POPS (AGAIN ALL
RAIN) THROUGH THIS TIME. ITS VERY POSSIBLE THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK ENDS UP BEING FAIRLY DRY.

OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE PICTURE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH PHASES WITH THE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EAST ACROSS
THE REGION. MODELS ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THE EXACT TRACK
OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT AS IT STANDS NOW...MOST SOLUTIONS WOULD KEEP
PRECIPITATION MAINLY RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM IS
REALLY LACKING THE COLD AIR. COLDER AIR WILL FINALLY START TO WRAP
INTO THE SYSTEM AS IT BEGINS TO DEPART...WITH RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ON RIDGES. BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING SHOULD TAKE PLACE TO ALLOW FOR
MORE SNOW THAN RAIN. HOWEVER...THE COLD AIR DEPICTED IS REALLY NOT
ALL THAT COLD AND THIS FAR OUT...WE MAY SEE MODELS TRY TO MODERATE
THIS COLD AIR A BIT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALL IN ALL...NOT A VERY
IMPRESSIVE SNOW PRODUCING SYSTEM...BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
COULD TAKE PLACE...ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE FLOW AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN ON
CHRISTMAS DAY AS RIDGING SPREADS EAST INTO THE REGION. WHILE ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM COULD APPROACH BY LATE FRIDAY...LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION
IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF A SLOWER SYSTEM...SO IT LOOKS LIKE THIS
WOULD SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...THIS ONE LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE PRIMARILY RAIN YET AGAIN...BUT
THIS FAR OUT...THIS COULD CLEARLY CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

LOW...MVFR...CLOUDS ARE LINGERING OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE
AREA WITH JUST HIGH CLOUDS SEEN ELSEWHERE. EXPECT THE NORTHEAST
CLOUDS TO BREAK UP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HIGHER CLOUDS SLOWLY
START TO THICKEN AND DESCEND. THESE CLOUDS ARE COMING FROM WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS LOW WILL BRUSH BY
EASTERN KENTUCKY LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SATURDAY. CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW OVER OUR SOUTHERNMOST PARTS OF THE AREA
WITH MAYBE A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY FURTHER TO THE NORTH. IN THE SOUTH WE
COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS RETURN AS THE MAIN SYSTEM PASSES LATE
TONIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF





000
FXUS63 KJKL 191845 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
145 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 145 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO FINE TUNE HIGH TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. ALSO NUDGED HOURLY TEMPERATURES
PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND
WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1050 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

15Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN OHIO
VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST. TO THE SOUTH A WEAK LOW IS FOUND IN THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LOCALLY...LOW CLOUDS PLAGUE MUCH OF THE
CWA MAINLY IN THE NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS...BENEATH ARRIVING MID
LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 20S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 20S
WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS MAINLY TO FINE TUNE THE
SKY COVER AND ALSO THE HOURLY T/TD ONES PER THE LATEST OBS...
TRENDS...AND BCCONSSHORT GUIDANCE. THE FRESHENED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT
TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 733 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ON TRACK SO FAR THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING THAT CLOUD COVER IS FINALLY STARTING TO BREAK UP A BIT ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE MORE CLOUDS BEGIN MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM. THE LATEST HOURLY OBS DATA WAS INGESTED
INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS AND FRESHEN UP THE
DATA. ASIDE FROM THAT NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE OR NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL START OFF RATHER QUIET AS
WEAK RIDGE OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE REGION.
LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AS
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS
TO MOVE IN OUR DIRECTION. THIS NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN AFFECTING OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES SOMETIME DURING THE PRE
DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
WILL PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH. THE TREND IN THE MODEL DATA THE PAST FEW
RUNS HAS BEEN TO MOVE THIS LOW FURTHER AND FURTHER SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
THAT BEING SAID...THE NEW FORECAST WAS TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION
BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS. THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ON SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE JUST COLD
ENOUGH AND AROUND JUST LONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A MIX AND RAIN AND
SNOW. CONSIDERING THE LACK OF GOOD ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH AVAILABLE...AND
LACK OF STRONG LIFT...AND THE FACT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE
IDEAL FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR DAY TIME
HIGHS DUE TO PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. IN GENERAL...DAY TIME HIGHS TODAY AND SATURDAY
SHOULD MAX OUT FROM THE UPPER 30S IN OUR NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH
OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY. TONIGHTS LOW SHOULD FALL TO AROUND FOR
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH THE WARMER READINGS SOUTH OF THE HAL
ROGERS...AND A FEW MID 20S READINGS POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-64.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. FORTUNATELY...THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH A DRY END
EXPECTED TO THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING NORTH ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR
NORTHWEST PRECIPITATION WILL EXTEND AND WHAT SOUTHEAST DOWN SLOPING
WINDS WILL PLAY ON PRECIPITATION TRYING TO SPREAD INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. WE MAY FIND IT DIFFICULT TO SATURATE UP ENOUGH TO ALLOW
FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THUS...WILL STAY IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALL RAIN AS MILDER AIR SURGES NORTHWARD WITH
THIS SYSTEM. AS THIS WAVE DEPARTS...NOT MUCH FORCING TO SUPPORT MUCH
BY LATE IN THE DAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...A DEEP LOW
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND TRACK INTO THE GREAT
LAKES INTO TUESDAY COULD CLIP OUR AREA WITH SOME WEAK FORCING FROM
TIME TO TIME. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN SOME VERY LOW POPS (AGAIN ALL
RAIN) THROUGH THIS TIME. ITS VERY POSSIBLE THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK ENDS UP BEING FAIRLY DRY.

OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE PICTURE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH PHASES WITH THE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EAST ACROSS
THE REGION. MODELS ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THE EXACT TRACK
OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT AS IT STANDS NOW...MOST SOLUTIONS WOULD KEEP
PRECIPITATION MAINLY RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM IS
REALLY LACKING THE COLD AIR. COLDER AIR WILL FINALLY START TO WRAP
INTO THE SYSTEM AS IT BEGINS TO DEPART...WITH RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ON RIDGES. BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING SHOULD TAKE PLACE TO ALLOW FOR
MORE SNOW THAN RAIN. HOWEVER...THE COLD AIR DEPICTED IS REALLY NOT
ALL THAT COLD AND THIS FAR OUT...WE MAY SEE MODELS TRY TO MODERATE
THIS COLD AIR A BIT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALL IN ALL...NOT A VERY
IMPRESSIVE SNOW PRODUCING SYSTEM...BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
COULD TAKE PLACE...ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE FLOW AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN ON
CHRISTMAS DAY AS RIDGING SPREADS EAST INTO THE REGION. WHILE ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM COULD APPROACH BY LATE FRIDAY...LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION
IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF A SLOWER SYSTEM...SO IT LOOKS LIKE THIS
WOULD SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...THIS ONE LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE PRIMARILY RAIN YET AGAIN...BUT
THIS FAR OUT...THIS COULD CLEARLY CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

LOW...MVFR...CLOUDS ARE LINGERING OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE
AREA WITH JUST HIGH CLOUDS SEEN ELSEWHERE. EXPECT THE NORTHEAST
CLOUDS TO BREAK UP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HIGHER CLOUDS SLOWLY
START TO THICKEN AND DESCEND. THESE CLOUDS ARE COMING FROM WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS LOW WILL BRUSH BY
EASTERN KENTUCKY LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SATURDAY. CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW OVER OUR SOUTHERNMOST PARTS OF THE AREA
WITH MAYBE A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY FURTHER TO THE NORTH. IN THE SOUTH WE
COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS RETURN AS THE MAIN SYSTEM PASSES LATE
TONIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF






000
FXUS63 KJKL 191550 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1050 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

15Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN OHIO
VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST. TO THE SOUTH A WEAK LOW IS FOUND IN THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LOCALLY...LOW CLOUDS PLAGUE MUCH OF THE
CWA MAINLY IN THE NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS...BENEATH ARRIVING MID
LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 20S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 20S
WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS MAINLY TO FINE TUNE THE
SKY COVER AND ALSO THE HOURLY T/TD ONES PER THE LATEST OBS...
TRENDS...AND BCCONSSHORT GUIDANCE. THE FRESHENED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT
TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 733 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ON TRACK SO FAR THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING THAT CLOUD COVER IS FINALLY STARTING TO BREAK UP A BIT ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE MORE CLOUDS BEGIN MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM. THE LATEST HOURLY OBS DATA WAS INGESTED
INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS AND FRESHEN UP THE
DATA. ASIDE FROM THAT NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE OR NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL START OFF RATHER QUIET AS
WEAK RIDGE OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE REGION.
LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AS
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS
TO MOVE IN OUR DIRECTION. THIS NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN AFFECTING OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES SOMETIME DURING THE PRE
DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
WILL PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH. THE TREND IN THE MODEL DATA THE PAST FEW
RUNS HAS BEEN TO MOVE THIS LOW FURTHER AND FURTHER SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
THAT BEING SAID...THE NEW FORECAST WAS TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION
BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS. THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ON SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE JUST COLD
ENOUGH AND AROUND JUST LONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A MIX AND RAIN AND
SNOW. CONSIDERING THE LACK OF GOOD ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH AVAILABLE...AND
LACK OF STRONG LIFT...AND THE FACT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE
IDEAL FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR DAY TIME
HIGHS DUE TO PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. IN GENERAL...DAY TIME HIGHS TODAY AND SATURDAY
SHOULD MAX OUT FROM THE UPPER 30S IN OUR NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH
OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY. TONIGHTS LOW SHOULD FALL TO AROUND FOR
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH THE WARMER READINGS SOUTH OF THE HAL
ROGERS...AND A FEW MID 20S READINGS POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-64.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. FORTUNATELY...THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH A DRY END
EXPECTED TO THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING NORTH ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR
NORTHWEST PRECIPITATION WILL EXTEND AND WHAT SOUTHEAST DOWN SLOPING
WINDS WILL PLAY ON PRECIPITATION TRYING TO SPREAD INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. WE MAY FIND IT DIFFICULT TO SATURATE UP ENOUGH TO ALLOW
FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THUS...WILL STAY IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALL RAIN AS MILDER AIR SURGES NORTHWARD WITH
THIS SYSTEM. AS THIS WAVE DEPARTS...NOT MUCH FORCING TO SUPPORT MUCH
BY LATE IN THE DAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...A DEEP LOW
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND TRACK INTO THE GREAT
LAKES INTO TUESDAY COULD CLIP OUR AREA WITH SOME WEAK FORCING FROM
TIME TO TIME. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN SOME VERY LOW POPS (AGAIN ALL
RAIN) THROUGH THIS TIME. ITS VERY POSSIBLE THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK ENDS UP BEING FAIRLY DRY.

OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE PICTURE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH PHASES WITH THE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EAST ACROSS
THE REGION. MODELS ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THE EXACT TRACK
OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT AS IT STANDS NOW...MOST SOLUTIONS WOULD KEEP
PRECIPITATION MAINLY RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM IS
REALLY LACKING THE COLD AIR. COLDER AIR WILL FINALLY START TO WRAP
INTO THE SYSTEM AS IT BEGINS TO DEPART...WITH RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ON RIDGES. BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING SHOULD TAKE PLACE TO ALLOW FOR
MORE SNOW THAN RAIN. HOWEVER...THE COLD AIR DEPICTED IS REALLY NOT
ALL THAT COLD AND THIS FAR OUT...WE MAY SEE MODELS TRY TO MODERATE
THIS COLD AIR A BIT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALL IN ALL...NOT A VERY
IMPRESSIVE SNOW PRODUCING SYSTEM...BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
COULD TAKE PLACE...ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE FLOW AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN ON
CHRISTMAS DAY AS RIDGING SPREADS EAST INTO THE REGION. WHILE ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM COULD APPROACH BY LATE FRIDAY...LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION
IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF A SLOWER SYSTEM...SO IT LOOKS LIKE THIS
WOULD SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...THIS ONE LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE PRIMARILY RAIN YET AGAIN...BUT
THIS FAR OUT...THIS COULD CLEARLY CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE AREA
THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. LOZ...SME...AND SYM WILL EXPERIENCE VFR
CONDITIONS WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST CIGS BETWEEN 5 AND 7K. JKL AND
SJS...HOWEVER...WILL BE EXCEPTIONS TO THIS RULE. THESE TWO TAF SITES
WILL SEE PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS OF AROUND 1.5K THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.
SJS...IN FACT...HAS BEEN REPORTING CIGS OF 1.6K FOR THE PAST FEW
HOURS WITH NO SIGNS OF THIS CHANGING ANY TIME SOON. THE CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK UP AN BIT LATER TODAY...GIVING WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
THICKEN AND LOWER AGAIN AFTER 3Z TONIGHT...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES BY TO OUR SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS TO LOZ AND SME AFTER 6Z TONIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...AR





000
FXUS63 KJKL 191550 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1050 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

15Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN OHIO
VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST. TO THE SOUTH A WEAK LOW IS FOUND IN THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LOCALLY...LOW CLOUDS PLAGUE MUCH OF THE
CWA MAINLY IN THE NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS...BENEATH ARRIVING MID
LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 20S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 20S
WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS MAINLY TO FINE TUNE THE
SKY COVER AND ALSO THE HOURLY T/TD ONES PER THE LATEST OBS...
TRENDS...AND BCCONSSHORT GUIDANCE. THE FRESHENED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT
TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 733 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ON TRACK SO FAR THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING THAT CLOUD COVER IS FINALLY STARTING TO BREAK UP A BIT ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE MORE CLOUDS BEGIN MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM. THE LATEST HOURLY OBS DATA WAS INGESTED
INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS AND FRESHEN UP THE
DATA. ASIDE FROM THAT NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE OR NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL START OFF RATHER QUIET AS
WEAK RIDGE OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE REGION.
LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AS
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS
TO MOVE IN OUR DIRECTION. THIS NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN AFFECTING OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES SOMETIME DURING THE PRE
DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
WILL PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH. THE TREND IN THE MODEL DATA THE PAST FEW
RUNS HAS BEEN TO MOVE THIS LOW FURTHER AND FURTHER SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
THAT BEING SAID...THE NEW FORECAST WAS TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION
BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS. THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ON SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE JUST COLD
ENOUGH AND AROUND JUST LONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A MIX AND RAIN AND
SNOW. CONSIDERING THE LACK OF GOOD ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH AVAILABLE...AND
LACK OF STRONG LIFT...AND THE FACT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE
IDEAL FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR DAY TIME
HIGHS DUE TO PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. IN GENERAL...DAY TIME HIGHS TODAY AND SATURDAY
SHOULD MAX OUT FROM THE UPPER 30S IN OUR NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH
OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY. TONIGHTS LOW SHOULD FALL TO AROUND FOR
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH THE WARMER READINGS SOUTH OF THE HAL
ROGERS...AND A FEW MID 20S READINGS POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-64.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. FORTUNATELY...THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH A DRY END
EXPECTED TO THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING NORTH ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR
NORTHWEST PRECIPITATION WILL EXTEND AND WHAT SOUTHEAST DOWN SLOPING
WINDS WILL PLAY ON PRECIPITATION TRYING TO SPREAD INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. WE MAY FIND IT DIFFICULT TO SATURATE UP ENOUGH TO ALLOW
FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THUS...WILL STAY IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALL RAIN AS MILDER AIR SURGES NORTHWARD WITH
THIS SYSTEM. AS THIS WAVE DEPARTS...NOT MUCH FORCING TO SUPPORT MUCH
BY LATE IN THE DAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...A DEEP LOW
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND TRACK INTO THE GREAT
LAKES INTO TUESDAY COULD CLIP OUR AREA WITH SOME WEAK FORCING FROM
TIME TO TIME. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN SOME VERY LOW POPS (AGAIN ALL
RAIN) THROUGH THIS TIME. ITS VERY POSSIBLE THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK ENDS UP BEING FAIRLY DRY.

OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE PICTURE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH PHASES WITH THE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EAST ACROSS
THE REGION. MODELS ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THE EXACT TRACK
OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT AS IT STANDS NOW...MOST SOLUTIONS WOULD KEEP
PRECIPITATION MAINLY RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM IS
REALLY LACKING THE COLD AIR. COLDER AIR WILL FINALLY START TO WRAP
INTO THE SYSTEM AS IT BEGINS TO DEPART...WITH RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ON RIDGES. BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING SHOULD TAKE PLACE TO ALLOW FOR
MORE SNOW THAN RAIN. HOWEVER...THE COLD AIR DEPICTED IS REALLY NOT
ALL THAT COLD AND THIS FAR OUT...WE MAY SEE MODELS TRY TO MODERATE
THIS COLD AIR A BIT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALL IN ALL...NOT A VERY
IMPRESSIVE SNOW PRODUCING SYSTEM...BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
COULD TAKE PLACE...ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE FLOW AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN ON
CHRISTMAS DAY AS RIDGING SPREADS EAST INTO THE REGION. WHILE ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM COULD APPROACH BY LATE FRIDAY...LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION
IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF A SLOWER SYSTEM...SO IT LOOKS LIKE THIS
WOULD SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...THIS ONE LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE PRIMARILY RAIN YET AGAIN...BUT
THIS FAR OUT...THIS COULD CLEARLY CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE AREA
THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. LOZ...SME...AND SYM WILL EXPERIENCE VFR
CONDITIONS WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST CIGS BETWEEN 5 AND 7K. JKL AND
SJS...HOWEVER...WILL BE EXCEPTIONS TO THIS RULE. THESE TWO TAF SITES
WILL SEE PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS OF AROUND 1.5K THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.
SJS...IN FACT...HAS BEEN REPORTING CIGS OF 1.6K FOR THE PAST FEW
HOURS WITH NO SIGNS OF THIS CHANGING ANY TIME SOON. THE CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK UP AN BIT LATER TODAY...GIVING WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
THICKEN AND LOWER AGAIN AFTER 3Z TONIGHT...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES BY TO OUR SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS TO LOZ AND SME AFTER 6Z TONIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...AR






000
FXUS63 KJKL 191234
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
734 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 733 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ON TRACK SO FAR THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING THAT CLOUD COVER IS FINALLY STARTING TO BREAK UP A BIT ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE MORE CLOUDS BEGIN MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM. THE LATEST HOURLY OBS DATA WAS INGESTED
INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS AND FRESHEN UP THE
DATA. ASIDE FROM THAT NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE OR NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL START OFF RATHER QUIET AS
WEAK RIDGE OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE REGION.
LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AS
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS
TO MOVE IN OUR DIRECTION. THIS NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN AFFECTING OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES SOMETIME DURING THE PRE
DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
WILL PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH. THE TREND IN THE MODEL DATA THE PAST FEW
RUNS HAS BEEN TO MOVE THIS LOW FURTHER AND FURTHER SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
THAT BEING SAID...THE NEW FORECAST WAS TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION
BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS. THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ON SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE JUST COLD
ENOUGH AND AROUND JUST LONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A MIX AND RAIN AND
SNOW. CONSIDERING THE LACK OF GOOD ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH AVAILABLE...AND
LACK OF STRONG LIFT...AND THE FACT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE
IDEAL FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR DAY TIME
HIGHS DUE TO PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. IN GENERAL...DAY TIME HIGHS TODAY AND SATURDAY
SHOULD MAX OUT FROM THE UPPER 30S IN OUR NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH
OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY. TONIGHTS LOW SHOULD FALL TO AROUND FOR
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH THE WARMER READINGS SOUTH OF THE HAL
ROGERS...AND A FEW MID 20S READINGS POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-64.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. FORTUNATELY...THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH A DRY END
EXPECTED TO THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING NORTH ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR
NORTHWEST PRECIPITATION WILL EXTEND AND WHAT SOUTHEAST DOWN SLOPING
WINDS WILL PLAY ON PRECIPITATION TRYING TO SPREAD INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. WE MAY FIND IT DIFFICULT TO SATURATE UP ENOUGH TO ALLOW
FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THUS...WILL STAY IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALL RAIN AS MILDER AIR SURGES NORTHWARD WITH
THIS SYSTEM. AS THIS WAVE DEPARTS...NOT MUCH FORCING TO SUPPORT MUCH
BY LATE IN THE DAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...A DEEP LOW
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND TRACK INTO THE GREAT
LAKES INTO TUESDAY COULD CLIP OUR AREA WITH SOME WEAK FORCING FROM
TIME TO TIME. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN SOME VERY LOW POPS (AGAIN ALL
RAIN) THROUGH THIS TIME. ITS VERY POSSIBLE THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK ENDS UP BEING FAIRLY DRY.

OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE PICTURE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH PHASES WITH THE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EAST ACROSS
THE REGION. MODELS ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THE EXACT TRACK
OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT AS IT STANDS NOW...MOST SOLUTIONS WOULD KEEP
PRECIPITATION MAINLY RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM IS
REALLY LACKING THE COLD AIR. COLDER AIR WILL FINALLY START TO WRAP
INTO THE SYSTEM AS IT BEGINS TO DEPART...WITH RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ON RIDGES. BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING SHOULD TAKE PLACE TO ALLOW FOR
MORE SNOW THAN RAIN. HOWEVER...THE COLD AIR DEPICTED IS REALLY NOT
ALL THAT COLD AND THIS FAR OUT...WE MAY SEE MODELS TRY TO MODERATE
THIS COLD AIR A BIT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALL IN ALL...NOT A VERY
IMPRESSIVE SNOW PRODUCING SYSTEM...BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
COULD TAKE PLACE...ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE FLOW AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN ON
CHRISTMAS DAY AS RIDGING SPREADS EAST INTO THE REGION. WHILE ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM COULD APPROACH BY LATE FRIDAY...LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION
IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF A SLOWER SYSTEM...SO IT LOOKS LIKE THIS
WOULD SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...THIS ONE LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE PRIMARILY RAIN YET AGAIN...BUT
THIS FAR OUT...THIS COULD CLEARLY CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE AREA
THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. LOZ...SME...AND SYM WILL EXPERIENCE VFR
CONDITIONS WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST CIGS BETWEEN 5 AND 7K. JKL AND
SJS...HOWEVER...WILL BE EXCEPTIONS TO THIS RULE. THESE TWO TAF SITES
WILL SEE PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS OF AROUND 1.5K THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.
SJS...IN FACT...HAS BEEN REPORTING CIGS OF 1.6K FOR THE PAST FEW
HOURS WITH NO SIGNS OF THIS CHANGING ANY TIME SOON. THE CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK UP AN BIT LATER TODAY...GIVING WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
THICKEN AND LOWER AGAIN AFTER 3Z TONIGHT...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES BY TO OUR SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS TO LOZ AND SME AFTER 6Z TONIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...AR







000
FXUS63 KJKL 191234
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
734 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 733 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ON TRACK SO FAR THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING THAT CLOUD COVER IS FINALLY STARTING TO BREAK UP A BIT ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE MORE CLOUDS BEGIN MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM. THE LATEST HOURLY OBS DATA WAS INGESTED
INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS AND FRESHEN UP THE
DATA. ASIDE FROM THAT NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE OR NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL START OFF RATHER QUIET AS
WEAK RIDGE OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE REGION.
LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AS
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS
TO MOVE IN OUR DIRECTION. THIS NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN AFFECTING OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES SOMETIME DURING THE PRE
DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
WILL PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH. THE TREND IN THE MODEL DATA THE PAST FEW
RUNS HAS BEEN TO MOVE THIS LOW FURTHER AND FURTHER SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
THAT BEING SAID...THE NEW FORECAST WAS TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION
BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS. THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ON SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE JUST COLD
ENOUGH AND AROUND JUST LONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A MIX AND RAIN AND
SNOW. CONSIDERING THE LACK OF GOOD ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH AVAILABLE...AND
LACK OF STRONG LIFT...AND THE FACT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE
IDEAL FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR DAY TIME
HIGHS DUE TO PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. IN GENERAL...DAY TIME HIGHS TODAY AND SATURDAY
SHOULD MAX OUT FROM THE UPPER 30S IN OUR NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH
OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY. TONIGHTS LOW SHOULD FALL TO AROUND FOR
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH THE WARMER READINGS SOUTH OF THE HAL
ROGERS...AND A FEW MID 20S READINGS POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-64.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. FORTUNATELY...THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH A DRY END
EXPECTED TO THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING NORTH ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR
NORTHWEST PRECIPITATION WILL EXTEND AND WHAT SOUTHEAST DOWN SLOPING
WINDS WILL PLAY ON PRECIPITATION TRYING TO SPREAD INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. WE MAY FIND IT DIFFICULT TO SATURATE UP ENOUGH TO ALLOW
FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THUS...WILL STAY IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALL RAIN AS MILDER AIR SURGES NORTHWARD WITH
THIS SYSTEM. AS THIS WAVE DEPARTS...NOT MUCH FORCING TO SUPPORT MUCH
BY LATE IN THE DAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...A DEEP LOW
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND TRACK INTO THE GREAT
LAKES INTO TUESDAY COULD CLIP OUR AREA WITH SOME WEAK FORCING FROM
TIME TO TIME. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN SOME VERY LOW POPS (AGAIN ALL
RAIN) THROUGH THIS TIME. ITS VERY POSSIBLE THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK ENDS UP BEING FAIRLY DRY.

OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE PICTURE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH PHASES WITH THE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EAST ACROSS
THE REGION. MODELS ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THE EXACT TRACK
OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT AS IT STANDS NOW...MOST SOLUTIONS WOULD KEEP
PRECIPITATION MAINLY RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM IS
REALLY LACKING THE COLD AIR. COLDER AIR WILL FINALLY START TO WRAP
INTO THE SYSTEM AS IT BEGINS TO DEPART...WITH RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ON RIDGES. BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING SHOULD TAKE PLACE TO ALLOW FOR
MORE SNOW THAN RAIN. HOWEVER...THE COLD AIR DEPICTED IS REALLY NOT
ALL THAT COLD AND THIS FAR OUT...WE MAY SEE MODELS TRY TO MODERATE
THIS COLD AIR A BIT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALL IN ALL...NOT A VERY
IMPRESSIVE SNOW PRODUCING SYSTEM...BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
COULD TAKE PLACE...ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE FLOW AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN ON
CHRISTMAS DAY AS RIDGING SPREADS EAST INTO THE REGION. WHILE ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM COULD APPROACH BY LATE FRIDAY...LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION
IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF A SLOWER SYSTEM...SO IT LOOKS LIKE THIS
WOULD SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...THIS ONE LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE PRIMARILY RAIN YET AGAIN...BUT
THIS FAR OUT...THIS COULD CLEARLY CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE AREA
THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. LOZ...SME...AND SYM WILL EXPERIENCE VFR
CONDITIONS WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST CIGS BETWEEN 5 AND 7K. JKL AND
SJS...HOWEVER...WILL BE EXCEPTIONS TO THIS RULE. THESE TWO TAF SITES
WILL SEE PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS OF AROUND 1.5K THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.
SJS...IN FACT...HAS BEEN REPORTING CIGS OF 1.6K FOR THE PAST FEW
HOURS WITH NO SIGNS OF THIS CHANGING ANY TIME SOON. THE CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK UP AN BIT LATER TODAY...GIVING WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
THICKEN AND LOWER AGAIN AFTER 3Z TONIGHT...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES BY TO OUR SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS TO LOZ AND SME AFTER 6Z TONIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...AR








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