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000
FXUS63 KJKL 040858
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
458 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

A QUIET START TO OUR WEDNESDAY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES
HOVERING AROUND 50...UNDER A DECK OF MID CLOUDS IN EASTERN
KENTUCKY. A FEW EARLIER SHOWERS NORTH OF I-64...HAVE SLOWLY BEEN
FADING AWAY AS THEY DROP EAST AND SOUTH. IN FACT...NOT MUCH LEFT
OF THESE SHOWERS PRESENTLY. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF CLEARING SKIES
IS SEEN MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SHOULD WORK OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS MAY ALLOW A
BRIEF DROP INTO THE 40S AS SKIES CLEAR OFF. LOOKING TO OUR
NORTH...A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS/MICHIGAN. SEVERAL REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL
AND DECENT PRECIPITATION RATES CONTINUE TO BE REPORTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. EVEN HAD SOME MEASURED WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH.
THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP SHARP WAVE
TROUGH...PROVIDING AMPLE FORCING AND LIFT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD TODAY AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST.

LATEST HI RES ARW/NMM/HRRR ALL SEEM TO BE HANDLING THIS SYSTEM
WELL. IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION SHOULD START TO MOVE IN SHORTLY
AFTER NOON TODAY...REACHING SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY BY LATE AFTERNOON.
AS THIS INITIAL LINE OF SHOWERS MOVES SOUTH...WE SHOULD SEE SOME
SLIGHT WEAKENING AS IT OUTRUNS THE MAIN FORCING. HOWEVER...NOT TO
BE DISCOUNTED...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD HELP TO REFIRE SOME
NEW SHOWERS/STORMS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE LINE OF WEAKENING
SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SBCAPE CLIMBING TO
500-1000J/KG...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE CERTAINLY CAPABLE. WITH
FREEZING LEVELS HOVERING AROUND 5.5KFT...SHOULD NOT TAKE MUCH LIFT
TO GET THUNDER AND SOME SMALL HAIL. WHILE I CAN`T RULE OUT SOME
SLIGHTLY LARGER HAIL...HAIL SIZE WILL LIKELY STAY UNDER 1 INCH
DIAMETER. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF SHORTLY AFTER
00Z THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN FORCING EXITS TO THE SOUTH WITH
TEMPORARY SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT. COLD ADVECTION WILL
TAKE OVER OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 40S AREAWIDE.
HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST MAY CREEP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.

ON THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD WITH MOISTURE
INCREASING AND WINDS TURNING MORE NORTHWEST FAVORING UPSLOPE FLOW.
THIS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER
SHARP SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND SHOULD
PROVIDE A NICE UPTICK IN SHOWER COVERAGE AND FOR THIS
REASON...HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE EAST FOR THURSDAY. IN
FACT...MODELS EVEN SHOWING STEEP ENOUGH LAPSE RATES AND
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. THUS...WILL
INTRODUCE SOME THUNDER INTO THE FORECAST...WHICH MATCHES UP WELL
WITH RLX`S CURRENT FORECAST. AGAIN...LOW FREEZING LEVELS WILL
PROMOTE SMALL HAIL WITH ANY STORMS. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS SHOULD BE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH INTO THE 50S WITH AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND
ONGOING SHOWER ACTIVITY. THUS...WILL STAY COLDER THAN MODEL
GUIDANCE FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL BE DEPARTING TO THE EAST AS THE PERIOD
STARTS. STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE STILL SHOWN OVER OUR AREA...WITH
AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHEAST TO SUPPORT SHOWERS. WITH THE LOW
MOVING FURTHER AWAY...ENOUGH DRYING IS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE LAST OF THE PRECIPITATION TO END. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED NEAR THE GULF COAST THEN BRINGS A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NEW ENGLAND WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO KY SATURDAY NIGHT.
IT BRINGS OUR NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY LATE SATURDAY AS IT
APPROACHES. MODELS SHOW THE FRONT STALLING JUST TO OUR
SOUTH...BEFORE TRYING TO MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY IN
THE NEW WORK WEEK. THIS MAKES THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP
PERSISTENT. WEAK INSTABILITY INDICATED ALSO WARRANTS A MENTION OF
THUNDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO HANG ON FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE
NEXT 9 TO 12 HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA AFTER 17Z TODAY. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST...GENERALLY IN
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...KAS





000
FXUS63 KJKL 040858
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
458 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

A QUIET START TO OUR WEDNESDAY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES
HOVERING AROUND 50...UNDER A DECK OF MID CLOUDS IN EASTERN
KENTUCKY. A FEW EARLIER SHOWERS NORTH OF I-64...HAVE SLOWLY BEEN
FADING AWAY AS THEY DROP EAST AND SOUTH. IN FACT...NOT MUCH LEFT
OF THESE SHOWERS PRESENTLY. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF CLEARING SKIES
IS SEEN MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SHOULD WORK OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS MAY ALLOW A
BRIEF DROP INTO THE 40S AS SKIES CLEAR OFF. LOOKING TO OUR
NORTH...A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS/MICHIGAN. SEVERAL REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL
AND DECENT PRECIPITATION RATES CONTINUE TO BE REPORTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. EVEN HAD SOME MEASURED WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH.
THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP SHARP WAVE
TROUGH...PROVIDING AMPLE FORCING AND LIFT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD TODAY AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST.

LATEST HI RES ARW/NMM/HRRR ALL SEEM TO BE HANDLING THIS SYSTEM
WELL. IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION SHOULD START TO MOVE IN SHORTLY
AFTER NOON TODAY...REACHING SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY BY LATE AFTERNOON.
AS THIS INITIAL LINE OF SHOWERS MOVES SOUTH...WE SHOULD SEE SOME
SLIGHT WEAKENING AS IT OUTRUNS THE MAIN FORCING. HOWEVER...NOT TO
BE DISCOUNTED...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD HELP TO REFIRE SOME
NEW SHOWERS/STORMS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE LINE OF WEAKENING
SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SBCAPE CLIMBING TO
500-1000J/KG...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE CERTAINLY CAPABLE. WITH
FREEZING LEVELS HOVERING AROUND 5.5KFT...SHOULD NOT TAKE MUCH LIFT
TO GET THUNDER AND SOME SMALL HAIL. WHILE I CAN`T RULE OUT SOME
SLIGHTLY LARGER HAIL...HAIL SIZE WILL LIKELY STAY UNDER 1 INCH
DIAMETER. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF SHORTLY AFTER
00Z THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN FORCING EXITS TO THE SOUTH WITH
TEMPORARY SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT. COLD ADVECTION WILL
TAKE OVER OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 40S AREAWIDE.
HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST MAY CREEP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.

ON THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD WITH MOISTURE
INCREASING AND WINDS TURNING MORE NORTHWEST FAVORING UPSLOPE FLOW.
THIS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER
SHARP SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND SHOULD
PROVIDE A NICE UPTICK IN SHOWER COVERAGE AND FOR THIS
REASON...HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE EAST FOR THURSDAY. IN
FACT...MODELS EVEN SHOWING STEEP ENOUGH LAPSE RATES AND
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. THUS...WILL
INTRODUCE SOME THUNDER INTO THE FORECAST...WHICH MATCHES UP WELL
WITH RLX`S CURRENT FORECAST. AGAIN...LOW FREEZING LEVELS WILL
PROMOTE SMALL HAIL WITH ANY STORMS. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS SHOULD BE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH INTO THE 50S WITH AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND
ONGOING SHOWER ACTIVITY. THUS...WILL STAY COLDER THAN MODEL
GUIDANCE FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL BE DEPARTING TO THE EAST AS THE PERIOD
STARTS. STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE STILL SHOWN OVER OUR AREA...WITH
AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHEAST TO SUPPORT SHOWERS. WITH THE LOW
MOVING FURTHER AWAY...ENOUGH DRYING IS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE LAST OF THE PRECIPITATION TO END. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED NEAR THE GULF COAST THEN BRINGS A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NEW ENGLAND WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO KY SATURDAY NIGHT.
IT BRINGS OUR NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY LATE SATURDAY AS IT
APPROACHES. MODELS SHOW THE FRONT STALLING JUST TO OUR
SOUTH...BEFORE TRYING TO MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY IN
THE NEW WORK WEEK. THIS MAKES THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP
PERSISTENT. WEAK INSTABILITY INDICATED ALSO WARRANTS A MENTION OF
THUNDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO HANG ON FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE
NEXT 9 TO 12 HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA AFTER 17Z TODAY. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST...GENERALLY IN
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...KAS





000
FXUS63 KJKL 040719
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
319 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

A QUIET START TO OUR WEDNESDAY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES
HOVERING AROUND 50...UNDER A DECK OF MID CLOUDS IN EASTERN
KENTUCKY. A FEW EARLIER SHOWERS NORTH OF I-64...HAVE SLOWLY BEEN
FADING AWAY AS THEY DROP EAST AND SOUTH. IN FACT...NOT MUCH LEFT
OF THESE SHOWERS PRESENTLY. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF CLEARING SKIES
IS SEEN MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SHOULD WORK OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS MAY ALLOW A
BRIEF DROP INTO THE 40S AS SKIES CLEAR OFF. LOOKING TO OUR
NORTH...A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS/MICHIGAN. SEVERAL REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL
AND DECENT PRECIPITATION RATES CONTINUE TO BE REPORTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. EVEN HAD SOME MEASURED WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH.
THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP SHARP WAVE
TROUGH...PROVIDING AMPLE FORCING AND LIFT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD TODAY AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST.

LATEST HI RES ARW/NMM/HRRR ALL SEEM TO BE HANDLING THIS SYSTEM
WELL. IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION SHOULD START TO MOVE IN SHORTLY
AFTER NOON TODAY...REACHING SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY BY LATE AFTERNOON.
AS THIS INITIAL LINE OF SHOWERS MOVES SOUTH...WE SHOULD SEE SOME
SLIGHT WEAKENING AS IT OUTRUNS THE MAIN FORCING. HOWEVER...NOT TO
BE DISCOUNTED...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD HELP TO REFIRE SOME
NEW SHOWERS/STORMS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE LINE OF WEAKENING
SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SBCAPE CLIMBING TO
500-1000J/KG...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE CERTAINLY CAPABLE. WITH
FREEZING LEVELS HOVERING AROUND 5.5KFT...SHOULD NOT TAKE MUCH LIFT
TO GET THUNDER AND SOME SMALL HAIL. WHILE I CAN`T RULE OUT SOME
SLIGHTLY LARGER HAIL...HAIL SIZE WILL LIKELY STAY UNDER 1 INCH
DIAMETER. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF SHORTLY AFTER
00Z THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN FORCING EXITS TO THE SOUTH WITH
TEMPORARY SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT. COLD ADVECTION WILL
TAKE OVER OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 40S AREAWIDE.
HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST MAY CREEP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.

ON THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD WITH MOISTURE
INCREASING AND WINDS TURNING MORE NORTHWEST FAVORING UPSLOPE FLOW.
THIS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER
SHARP SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND SHOULDPROVIDE
A NICE UPTICK IN SHOWER COVERAGE AND FOR THIS REASON...HAVE
INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE EAST FOR THURSDAY. IN FACT...MODELS EVEN
SHOWING STEEP ENOUGH LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. THUS...WILL INTRODUCE SOME THUNDER INTO THE
FORECAST...WHICH MATCHES UP WELL WITH RLX`S CURRENT FORECAST.
AGAIN...LOW FREEZING LEVELS WILL PROMOTE SMALL HAIL WITH ANY
STORMS. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH INTO
THE 50S WITH AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND ONGOING SHOWER ACTIVITY.
THUS...WILL STAY COLDER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL BE PASSING ACROSS KY TO START OFF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...PULLING MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIR DOWN INTO THE
REGION. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...KEEPING STRONG N TO S FLOW ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION INTO THE DAY SATURDAY...WHILE THE LOW REMAINS
PARKED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

AT THIS POINT...ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY IN
CANADA WILL BEGIN DROPPING SOUTHWARD. THE LOW TO OUR EAST WILL BEGIN
TO DISSOLVE AND MERGE INTO THE INCOMING LOW AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTHWARD SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WHILE THE UPPER LOW WILL STAY TO OUR
NE...EXPECT THE RETURN OF NW FLOW TO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. THE LOW WILL THEN START SHIFTING EASTWARD...WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING TAKING HOLD THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

LINGERING PRECIP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AND EVEN INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE SE ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO
LINGERING MOISTURE AND NW TO SE UPSLOPE FLOW THROUGH THE DAY. SO
LONG AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW STAY POSITIONED OVER THE
EASTERN COAST...THIS NW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE. THE STRONG N TO S
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO PULL IN DEEP CAA...WITH HIGHS THURSDAY ONLY
REACHING THE LOW TO MID 50S. AS CONDITIONS BEGIN CLEARING THURSDAY
NIGHT...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP OFF TO THE LOW TO MID 40S...WITH COLDEST
TEMPS LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS. FRIDAY WILL SHOW SOME IMPROVEMENT...BUT
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S IS STILL BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS FOR
THE BEGINNING OF MAY.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING NUDGES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
MOSTLY CLEAR...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ALLOWED TO RISE INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 70S AS WINDS BECOME MORE WRLY NEAR THE SURFACE...TAPPING
INTO WARMER GULF FLOW COMING OUT OF TEXAS. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW
DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD...
ENTERING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT...BECOMING NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. WHILE MOST OF THE
MOISTURE WILL BE CONTAINED CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW
TO OUR NE...STILL EXPECT SOME LOW END CHANCE POPS TO MAKE IT INTO
OUR CWA...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF...BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING ALL THE WAY INTO MONDAY...DESPITE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
TAKING HOLD. GENERALLY WRLY FLOW...EVEN ALOFT...AT THIS POINT...WILL
CONTINUE TO PULL IN WARMER TEMPS...TAPPING INTO THE GULF MOISTURE
ACROSS TX. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 70 DEGREE RANGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND STARTING OUT THE NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO HANG ON FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE
NEXT 9 TO 12 HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA AFTER 17Z TODAY. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST...GENERALLY IN
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...KAS





000
FXUS63 KJKL 040719
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
319 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

A QUIET START TO OUR WEDNESDAY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES
HOVERING AROUND 50...UNDER A DECK OF MID CLOUDS IN EASTERN
KENTUCKY. A FEW EARLIER SHOWERS NORTH OF I-64...HAVE SLOWLY BEEN
FADING AWAY AS THEY DROP EAST AND SOUTH. IN FACT...NOT MUCH LEFT
OF THESE SHOWERS PRESENTLY. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF CLEARING SKIES
IS SEEN MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SHOULD WORK OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS MAY ALLOW A
BRIEF DROP INTO THE 40S AS SKIES CLEAR OFF. LOOKING TO OUR
NORTH...A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS/MICHIGAN. SEVERAL REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL
AND DECENT PRECIPITATION RATES CONTINUE TO BE REPORTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. EVEN HAD SOME MEASURED WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH.
THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP SHARP WAVE
TROUGH...PROVIDING AMPLE FORCING AND LIFT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD TODAY AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST.

LATEST HI RES ARW/NMM/HRRR ALL SEEM TO BE HANDLING THIS SYSTEM
WELL. IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION SHOULD START TO MOVE IN SHORTLY
AFTER NOON TODAY...REACHING SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY BY LATE AFTERNOON.
AS THIS INITIAL LINE OF SHOWERS MOVES SOUTH...WE SHOULD SEE SOME
SLIGHT WEAKENING AS IT OUTRUNS THE MAIN FORCING. HOWEVER...NOT TO
BE DISCOUNTED...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD HELP TO REFIRE SOME
NEW SHOWERS/STORMS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE LINE OF WEAKENING
SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SBCAPE CLIMBING TO
500-1000J/KG...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE CERTAINLY CAPABLE. WITH
FREEZING LEVELS HOVERING AROUND 5.5KFT...SHOULD NOT TAKE MUCH LIFT
TO GET THUNDER AND SOME SMALL HAIL. WHILE I CAN`T RULE OUT SOME
SLIGHTLY LARGER HAIL...HAIL SIZE WILL LIKELY STAY UNDER 1 INCH
DIAMETER. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF SHORTLY AFTER
00Z THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN FORCING EXITS TO THE SOUTH WITH
TEMPORARY SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT. COLD ADVECTION WILL
TAKE OVER OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 40S AREAWIDE.
HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST MAY CREEP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.

ON THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD WITH MOISTURE
INCREASING AND WINDS TURNING MORE NORTHWEST FAVORING UPSLOPE FLOW.
THIS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER
SHARP SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND SHOULDPROVIDE
A NICE UPTICK IN SHOWER COVERAGE AND FOR THIS REASON...HAVE
INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE EAST FOR THURSDAY. IN FACT...MODELS EVEN
SHOWING STEEP ENOUGH LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. THUS...WILL INTRODUCE SOME THUNDER INTO THE
FORECAST...WHICH MATCHES UP WELL WITH RLX`S CURRENT FORECAST.
AGAIN...LOW FREEZING LEVELS WILL PROMOTE SMALL HAIL WITH ANY
STORMS. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH INTO
THE 50S WITH AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND ONGOING SHOWER ACTIVITY.
THUS...WILL STAY COLDER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL BE PASSING ACROSS KY TO START OFF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...PULLING MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIR DOWN INTO THE
REGION. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...KEEPING STRONG N TO S FLOW ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION INTO THE DAY SATURDAY...WHILE THE LOW REMAINS
PARKED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

AT THIS POINT...ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY IN
CANADA WILL BEGIN DROPPING SOUTHWARD. THE LOW TO OUR EAST WILL BEGIN
TO DISSOLVE AND MERGE INTO THE INCOMING LOW AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTHWARD SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WHILE THE UPPER LOW WILL STAY TO OUR
NE...EXPECT THE RETURN OF NW FLOW TO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. THE LOW WILL THEN START SHIFTING EASTWARD...WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING TAKING HOLD THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

LINGERING PRECIP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AND EVEN INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE SE ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO
LINGERING MOISTURE AND NW TO SE UPSLOPE FLOW THROUGH THE DAY. SO
LONG AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW STAY POSITIONED OVER THE
EASTERN COAST...THIS NW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE. THE STRONG N TO S
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO PULL IN DEEP CAA...WITH HIGHS THURSDAY ONLY
REACHING THE LOW TO MID 50S. AS CONDITIONS BEGIN CLEARING THURSDAY
NIGHT...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP OFF TO THE LOW TO MID 40S...WITH COLDEST
TEMPS LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS. FRIDAY WILL SHOW SOME IMPROVEMENT...BUT
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S IS STILL BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS FOR
THE BEGINNING OF MAY.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING NUDGES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
MOSTLY CLEAR...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ALLOWED TO RISE INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 70S AS WINDS BECOME MORE WRLY NEAR THE SURFACE...TAPPING
INTO WARMER GULF FLOW COMING OUT OF TEXAS. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW
DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD...
ENTERING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT...BECOMING NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. WHILE MOST OF THE
MOISTURE WILL BE CONTAINED CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW
TO OUR NE...STILL EXPECT SOME LOW END CHANCE POPS TO MAKE IT INTO
OUR CWA...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF...BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING ALL THE WAY INTO MONDAY...DESPITE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
TAKING HOLD. GENERALLY WRLY FLOW...EVEN ALOFT...AT THIS POINT...WILL
CONTINUE TO PULL IN WARMER TEMPS...TAPPING INTO THE GULF MOISTURE
ACROSS TX. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 70 DEGREE RANGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND STARTING OUT THE NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO HANG ON FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE
NEXT 9 TO 12 HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA AFTER 17Z TODAY. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST...GENERALLY IN
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...KAS





000
FXUS63 KJKL 040620
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
220 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

CLOUDS HOLDING TOUGH THIS MORNING...BUT WITH BASES AROUND
8KFT...NOT MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY TO SPEAK OF. STILL A FEW SHOWERS
JUST NORTH OF I-64...ASSOCIATED WITH A LEFT OVER CONVERGENCE ZONE.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST INTO WEST VIRGINIA THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE...VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING IS MAKING ITS MOVE SOUTH WITH A
DECENT LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT. HAVE SEEN SOME PERSISTENT WIND GUSTS UP TO 40-45 MPH.
FORTUNATELY...WITH THE FRONT BECOMING MORE NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED BY
THE TIME IT GETS HERE...NOT ANTICIPATING THE WIND THREAT TO MAKE
IT INTO OUR AREA TODAY. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY...CONDITIONS STILL FAVORABLE FOR SOME SMALL HAIL WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM WITH SUCH LOW FREEZING LEVELS. IN
FACT...ALREADY NUMEROUS REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL OVERNIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1039 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

PARTIAL CLEARING HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME TEMPERATURE DROP OFF IN
PLACES...HOWEVER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LOOK TO MOVE BACK IN
OVERNIGHT...SO LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S STILL LOOK ON TARGET.
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO POP UP WITH THE APPROACH OF A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH...AND THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS AT LEAST WEAK RETURNS AT
TIMES THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE UPDATED TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
LATEST TRENDS...OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. UPDATES
HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 823 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. A FEW SHOWERS ARE DOTTING PORTION OF THE
AREA...MAINLY NORTH OF I-64. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO THREATEN
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO
ALIGN BETTER WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON FEATURE SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING AROUND THE APPALACHIAN REGION AS THE
BOUNDARY THAT HAD SPARKED SOME SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OVER THE
AREA YESTERDAY HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY NUDGE IN FROM THE WEST. WITH STOUT LOW PRESSURE
EXITING THE AREA AND THE NEXT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT.

WITH A FEW BREAKS TODAY IN THE CLOUD COVER...SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
DID DEVELOP AND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS IN THE SOUTH. AS A WEAK WAVE PASSES THE AREA TONIGHT A FEW
SHOWERS WILL POP UP AGAIN THE NORTH. THE CONTINUED CLOUD COVER
WILL KEEP THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG UNLIKELY. HEADING INTO THE DAY
TOMORROW...A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY
BY THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. WITH A DECENT GRADIENT IN
THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH...WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY WITH THE
FRONT...HOWEVER INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING. WILL EXPECT SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND FORCING FROM THE FRONT...SOME LOWER FREEZING
HEIGHTS WILL LEAD TO A FEW INSTANCES OF SMALL HAIL. A COLD CORE
LOW STALLING OVERHEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL LEAD TO COOLER
TEMPS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER. IN
FACT...TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S AND POSSIBLY SOME UPPER
30S. OVERALL...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE CLOUDY...COOL...AND A FEW SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL BE PASSING ACROSS KY TO START OFF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...PULLING MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIR DOWN INTO THE
REGION. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...KEEPING STRONG N TO S FLOW ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION INTO THE DAY SATURDAY...WHILE THE LOW REMAINS
PARKED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

AT THIS POINT...ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY IN
CANADA WILL BEGIN DROPPING SOUTHWARD. THE LOW TO OUR EAST WILL BEGIN
TO DISSOLVE AND MERGE INTO THE INCOMING LOW AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTHWARD SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WHILE THE UPPER LOW WILL STAY TO OUR
NE...EXPECT THE RETURN OF NW FLOW TO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. THE LOW WILL THEN START SHIFTING EASTWARD...WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING TAKING HOLD THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

LINGERING PRECIP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AND EVEN INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE SE ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO
LINGERING MOISTURE AND NW TO SE UPSLOPE FLOW THROUGH THE DAY. SO
LONG AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW STAY POSITIONED OVER THE
EASTERN COAST...THIS NW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE. THE STRONG N TO S
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO PULL IN DEEP CAA...WITH HIGHS THURSDAY ONLY
REACHING THE LOW TO MID 50S. AS CONDITIONS BEGIN CLEARING THURSDAY
NIGHT...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP OFF TO THE LOW TO MID 40S...WITH COLDEST
TEMPS LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS. FRIDAY WILL SHOW SOME IMPROVEMENT...BUT
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S IS STILL BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS FOR
THE BEGINNING OF MAY.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING NUDGES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
MOSTLY CLEAR...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ALLOWED TO RISE INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 70S AS WINDS BECOME MORE WRLY NEAR THE SURFACE...TAPPING
INTO WARMER GULF FLOW COMING OUT OF TEXAS. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW
DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD...
ENTERING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT...BECOMING NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. WHILE MOST OF THE
MOISTURE WILL BE CONTAINED CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW
TO OUR NE...STILL EXPECT SOME LOW END CHANCE POPS TO MAKE IT INTO
OUR CWA...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF...BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING ALL THE WAY INTO MONDAY...DESPITE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
TAKING HOLD. GENERALLY WRLY FLOW...EVEN ALOFT...AT THIS POINT...WILL
CONTINUE TO PULL IN WARMER TEMPS...TAPPING INTO THE GULF MOISTURE
ACROSS TX. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 70 DEGREE RANGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND STARTING OUT THE NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO HANG ON FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE
NEXT 9 TO 12 HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA AFTER 17Z TODAY. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST...GENERALLY IN
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...KAS





000
FXUS63 KJKL 040239 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1039 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1039 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

PARTIAL CLEARING HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME TEMPERATURE DROP OFF IN
PLACES...HOWEVER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LOOK TO MOVE BACK IN
OVERNIGHT...SO LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S STILL LOOK ON TARGET.
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO POP UP WITH THE APPROACH OF A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH...AND THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS AT LEAST WEAK RETURNS AT
TIMES THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE UPDATED TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
LATEST TRENDS...OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. UPDATES
HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 823 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. A FEW SHOWERS ARE DOTTING PORTION OF THE
AREA...MAINLY NORTH OF I-64. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO THREATEN
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO
ALIGN BETTER WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON FEATURE SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING AROUND THE APPALACHIAN REGION AS THE
BOUNDARY THAT HAD SPARKED SOME SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OVER THE
AREA YESTERDAY HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY NUDGE IN FROM THE WEST. WITH STOUT LOW PRESSURE
EXITING THE AREA AND THE NEXT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT.

WITH A FEW BREAKS TODAY IN THE CLOUD COVER...SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
DID DEVELOP AND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS IN THE SOUTH. AS A WEAK WAVE PASSES THE AREA TONIGHT A FEW
SHOWERS WILL POP UP AGAIN THE NORTH. THE CONTINUED CLOUD COVER
WILL KEEP THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG UNLIKELY. HEADING INTO THE DAY
TOMORROW...A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY
BY THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. WITH A DECENT GRADIENT IN
THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH...WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY WITH THE
FRONT...HOWEVER INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING. WILL EXPECT SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND FORCING FROM THE FRONT...SOME LOWER FREEZING
HEIGHTS WILL LEAD TO A FEW INSTANCES OF SMALL HAIL. A COLD CORE
LOW STALLING OVERHEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL LEAD TO COOLER
TEMPS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER. IN
FACT...TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S AND POSSIBLY SOME UPPER
30S. OVERALL...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE CLOUDY...COOL...AND A FEW SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL BE PASSING ACROSS KY TO START OFF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...PULLING MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIR DOWN INTO THE
REGION. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...KEEPING STRONG N TO S FLOW ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION INTO THE DAY SATURDAY...WHILE THE LOW REMAINS
PARKED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

AT THIS POINT...ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY IN
CANADA WILL BEGIN DROPPING SOUTHWARD. THE LOW TO OUR EAST WILL BEGIN
TO DISSOLVE AND MERGE INTO THE INCOMING LOW AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTHWARD SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WHILE THE UPPER LOW WILL STAY TO OUR
NE...EXPECT THE RETURN OF NW FLOW TO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. THE LOW WILL THEN START SHIFTING EASTWARD...WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING TAKING HOLD THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

LINGERING PRECIP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AND EVEN INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE SE ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO
LINGERING MOISTURE AND NW TO SE UPSLOPE FLOW THROUGH THE DAY. SO
LONG AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW STAY POSITIONED OVER THE
EASTERN COAST...THIS NW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE. THE STRONG N TO S
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO PULL IN DEEP CAA...WITH HIGHS THURSDAY ONLY
REACHING THE LOW TO MID 50S. AS CONDITIONS BEGIN CLEARING THURSDAY
NIGHT...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP OFF TO THE LOW TO MID 40S...WITH COLDEST
TEMPS LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS. FRIDAY WILL SHOW SOME IMPROVEMENT...BUT
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S IS STILL BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS FOR
THE BEGINNING OF MAY.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING NUDGES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
MOSTLY CLEAR...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ALLOWED TO RISE INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 70S AS WINDS BECOME MORE WRLY NEAR THE SURFACE...TAPPING
INTO WARMER GULF FLOW COMING OUT OF TEXAS. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW
DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD...
ENTERING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT...BECOMING NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. WHILE MOST OF THE
MOISTURE WILL BE CONTAINED CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW
TO OUR NE...STILL EXPECT SOME LOW END CHANCE POPS TO MAKE IT INTO
OUR CWA...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF...BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING ALL THE WAY INTO MONDAY...DESPITE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
TAKING HOLD. GENERALLY WRLY FLOW...EVEN ALOFT...AT THIS POINT...WILL
CONTINUE TO PULL IN WARMER TEMPS...TAPPING INTO THE GULF MOISTURE
ACROSS TX. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 70 DEGREE RANGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND STARTING OUT THE NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 823 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO HANG ON FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NEXT
12 TO 15 HOURS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z...WITH
PLACES IN FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY...INCLUDING SJS...LIKELY SEEING A
WINDOW OF MVFR BETWEEN 10 AND 14Z. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO BE SEEN
OVERNIGHT...BUT THESE WILL BE LIGHT AND LIMITED IN AREAL COVERAGE.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING LIKELY SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA AFTER 15Z WEDNESDAY. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST...GENERALLY IN
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN





000
FXUS63 KJKL 040239 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1039 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1039 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

PARTIAL CLEARING HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME TEMPERATURE DROP OFF IN
PLACES...HOWEVER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LOOK TO MOVE BACK IN
OVERNIGHT...SO LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S STILL LOOK ON TARGET.
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO POP UP WITH THE APPROACH OF A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH...AND THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS AT LEAST WEAK RETURNS AT
TIMES THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE UPDATED TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
LATEST TRENDS...OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. UPDATES
HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 823 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. A FEW SHOWERS ARE DOTTING PORTION OF THE
AREA...MAINLY NORTH OF I-64. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO THREATEN
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO
ALIGN BETTER WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON FEATURE SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING AROUND THE APPALACHIAN REGION AS THE
BOUNDARY THAT HAD SPARKED SOME SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OVER THE
AREA YESTERDAY HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY NUDGE IN FROM THE WEST. WITH STOUT LOW PRESSURE
EXITING THE AREA AND THE NEXT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT.

WITH A FEW BREAKS TODAY IN THE CLOUD COVER...SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
DID DEVELOP AND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS IN THE SOUTH. AS A WEAK WAVE PASSES THE AREA TONIGHT A FEW
SHOWERS WILL POP UP AGAIN THE NORTH. THE CONTINUED CLOUD COVER
WILL KEEP THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG UNLIKELY. HEADING INTO THE DAY
TOMORROW...A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY
BY THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. WITH A DECENT GRADIENT IN
THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH...WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY WITH THE
FRONT...HOWEVER INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING. WILL EXPECT SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND FORCING FROM THE FRONT...SOME LOWER FREEZING
HEIGHTS WILL LEAD TO A FEW INSTANCES OF SMALL HAIL. A COLD CORE
LOW STALLING OVERHEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL LEAD TO COOLER
TEMPS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER. IN
FACT...TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S AND POSSIBLY SOME UPPER
30S. OVERALL...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE CLOUDY...COOL...AND A FEW SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL BE PASSING ACROSS KY TO START OFF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...PULLING MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIR DOWN INTO THE
REGION. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...KEEPING STRONG N TO S FLOW ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION INTO THE DAY SATURDAY...WHILE THE LOW REMAINS
PARKED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

AT THIS POINT...ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY IN
CANADA WILL BEGIN DROPPING SOUTHWARD. THE LOW TO OUR EAST WILL BEGIN
TO DISSOLVE AND MERGE INTO THE INCOMING LOW AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTHWARD SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WHILE THE UPPER LOW WILL STAY TO OUR
NE...EXPECT THE RETURN OF NW FLOW TO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. THE LOW WILL THEN START SHIFTING EASTWARD...WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING TAKING HOLD THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

LINGERING PRECIP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AND EVEN INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE SE ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO
LINGERING MOISTURE AND NW TO SE UPSLOPE FLOW THROUGH THE DAY. SO
LONG AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW STAY POSITIONED OVER THE
EASTERN COAST...THIS NW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE. THE STRONG N TO S
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO PULL IN DEEP CAA...WITH HIGHS THURSDAY ONLY
REACHING THE LOW TO MID 50S. AS CONDITIONS BEGIN CLEARING THURSDAY
NIGHT...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP OFF TO THE LOW TO MID 40S...WITH COLDEST
TEMPS LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS. FRIDAY WILL SHOW SOME IMPROVEMENT...BUT
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S IS STILL BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS FOR
THE BEGINNING OF MAY.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING NUDGES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
MOSTLY CLEAR...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ALLOWED TO RISE INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 70S AS WINDS BECOME MORE WRLY NEAR THE SURFACE...TAPPING
INTO WARMER GULF FLOW COMING OUT OF TEXAS. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW
DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD...
ENTERING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT...BECOMING NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. WHILE MOST OF THE
MOISTURE WILL BE CONTAINED CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW
TO OUR NE...STILL EXPECT SOME LOW END CHANCE POPS TO MAKE IT INTO
OUR CWA...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF...BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING ALL THE WAY INTO MONDAY...DESPITE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
TAKING HOLD. GENERALLY WRLY FLOW...EVEN ALOFT...AT THIS POINT...WILL
CONTINUE TO PULL IN WARMER TEMPS...TAPPING INTO THE GULF MOISTURE
ACROSS TX. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 70 DEGREE RANGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND STARTING OUT THE NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 823 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO HANG ON FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NEXT
12 TO 15 HOURS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z...WITH
PLACES IN FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY...INCLUDING SJS...LIKELY SEEING A
WINDOW OF MVFR BETWEEN 10 AND 14Z. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO BE SEEN
OVERNIGHT...BUT THESE WILL BE LIGHT AND LIMITED IN AREAL COVERAGE.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING LIKELY SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA AFTER 15Z WEDNESDAY. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST...GENERALLY IN
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN





000
FXUS63 KJKL 040023 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
823 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 823 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. A FEW SHOWERS ARE DOTTING PORTION OF THE
AREA...MAINLY NORTH OF I-64. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO THREATEN
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO
ALIGN BETTER WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON FEATURE SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING AROUND THE APPALACHIAN REGION AS THE
BOUNDARY THAT HAD SPARKED SOME SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OVER THE
AREA YESTERDAY HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY NUDGE IN FROM THE WEST. WITH STOUT LOW PRESSURE
EXITING THE AREA AND THE NEXT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT.

WITH A FEW BREAKS TODAY IN THE CLOUD COVER...SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
DID DEVELOP AND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS IN THE SOUTH. AS A WEAK WAVE PASSES THE AREA TONIGHT A FEW
SHOWERS WILL POP UP AGAIN THE NORTH. THE CONTINUED CLOUD COVER
WILL KEEP THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG UNLIKELY. HEADING INTO THE DAY
TOMORROW...A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY
BY THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. WITH A DECENT GRADIENT IN
THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH...WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY WITH THE
FRONT...HOWEVER INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING. WILL EXPECT SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND FORCING FROM THE FRONT...SOME LOWER FREEZING
HEIGHTS WILL LEAD TO A FEW INSTANCES OF SMALL HAIL. A COLD CORE
LOW STALLING OVERHEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL LEAD TO COOLER
TEMPS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER. IN
FACT...TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S AND POSSIBLY SOME UPPER
30S. OVERALL...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE CLOUDY...COOL...AND A FEW SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL BE PASSING ACROSS KY TO START OFF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...PULLING MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIR DOWN INTO THE
REGION. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...KEEPING STRONG N TO S FLOW ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION INTO THE DAY SATURDAY...WHILE THE LOW REMAINS
PARKED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

AT THIS POINT...ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY IN
CANADA WILL BEGIN DROPPING SOUTHWARD. THE LOW TO OUR EAST WILL BEGIN
TO DISSOLVE AND MERGE INTO THE INCOMING LOW AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTHWARD SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WHILE THE UPPER LOW WILL STAY TO OUR
NE...EXPECT THE RETURN OF NW FLOW TO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. THE LOW WILL THEN START SHIFTING EASTWARD...WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING TAKING HOLD THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

LINGERING PRECIP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AND EVEN INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE SE ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO
LINGERING MOISTURE AND NW TO SE UPSLOPE FLOW THROUGH THE DAY. SO
LONG AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW STAY POSITIONED OVER THE
EASTERN COAST...THIS NW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE. THE STRONG N TO S
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO PULL IN DEEP CAA...WITH HIGHS THURSDAY ONLY
REACHING THE LOW TO MID 50S. AS CONDITIONS BEGIN CLEARING THURSDAY
NIGHT...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP OFF TO THE LOW TO MID 40S...WITH COLDEST
TEMPS LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS. FRIDAY WILL SHOW SOME IMPROVEMENT...BUT
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S IS STILL BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS FOR
THE BEGINNING OF MAY.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING NUDGES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
MOSTLY CLEAR...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ALLOWED TO RISE INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 70S AS WINDS BECOME MORE WRLY NEAR THE SURFACE...TAPPING
INTO WARMER GULF FLOW COMING OUT OF TEXAS. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW
DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD...
ENTERING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT...BECOMING NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. WHILE MOST OF THE
MOISTURE WILL BE CONTAINED CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW
TO OUR NE...STILL EXPECT SOME LOW END CHANCE POPS TO MAKE IT INTO
OUR CWA...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF...BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING ALL THE WAY INTO MONDAY...DESPITE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
TAKING HOLD. GENERALLY WRLY FLOW...EVEN ALOFT...AT THIS POINT...WILL
CONTINUE TO PULL IN WARMER TEMPS...TAPPING INTO THE GULF MOISTURE
ACROSS TX. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 70 DEGREE RANGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND STARTING OUT THE NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 823 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO HANG ON FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NEXT
12 TO 15 HOURS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z...WITH
PLACES IN FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY...INCLUDING SJS...LIKELY SEEING A
WINDOWN OF MVFR BETWEEN 10 AND 14Z. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO BE SEEN
OVERNIGHT...BUT THESE WILL BE LIGHT AND LIMITED IN AREAL COVERAGE.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING LIKELY SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA AFTER 15Z WEDNESDAY. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST...GENERALLY
IN BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN





000
FXUS63 KJKL 040023 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
823 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 823 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. A FEW SHOWERS ARE DOTTING PORTION OF THE
AREA...MAINLY NORTH OF I-64. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO THREATEN
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO
ALIGN BETTER WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON FEATURE SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING AROUND THE APPALACHIAN REGION AS THE
BOUNDARY THAT HAD SPARKED SOME SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OVER THE
AREA YESTERDAY HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY NUDGE IN FROM THE WEST. WITH STOUT LOW PRESSURE
EXITING THE AREA AND THE NEXT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT.

WITH A FEW BREAKS TODAY IN THE CLOUD COVER...SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
DID DEVELOP AND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS IN THE SOUTH. AS A WEAK WAVE PASSES THE AREA TONIGHT A FEW
SHOWERS WILL POP UP AGAIN THE NORTH. THE CONTINUED CLOUD COVER
WILL KEEP THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG UNLIKELY. HEADING INTO THE DAY
TOMORROW...A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY
BY THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. WITH A DECENT GRADIENT IN
THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH...WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY WITH THE
FRONT...HOWEVER INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING. WILL EXPECT SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND FORCING FROM THE FRONT...SOME LOWER FREEZING
HEIGHTS WILL LEAD TO A FEW INSTANCES OF SMALL HAIL. A COLD CORE
LOW STALLING OVERHEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL LEAD TO COOLER
TEMPS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER. IN
FACT...TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S AND POSSIBLY SOME UPPER
30S. OVERALL...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE CLOUDY...COOL...AND A FEW SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL BE PASSING ACROSS KY TO START OFF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...PULLING MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIR DOWN INTO THE
REGION. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...KEEPING STRONG N TO S FLOW ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION INTO THE DAY SATURDAY...WHILE THE LOW REMAINS
PARKED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

AT THIS POINT...ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY IN
CANADA WILL BEGIN DROPPING SOUTHWARD. THE LOW TO OUR EAST WILL BEGIN
TO DISSOLVE AND MERGE INTO THE INCOMING LOW AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTHWARD SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WHILE THE UPPER LOW WILL STAY TO OUR
NE...EXPECT THE RETURN OF NW FLOW TO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. THE LOW WILL THEN START SHIFTING EASTWARD...WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING TAKING HOLD THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

LINGERING PRECIP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AND EVEN INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE SE ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO
LINGERING MOISTURE AND NW TO SE UPSLOPE FLOW THROUGH THE DAY. SO
LONG AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW STAY POSITIONED OVER THE
EASTERN COAST...THIS NW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE. THE STRONG N TO S
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO PULL IN DEEP CAA...WITH HIGHS THURSDAY ONLY
REACHING THE LOW TO MID 50S. AS CONDITIONS BEGIN CLEARING THURSDAY
NIGHT...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP OFF TO THE LOW TO MID 40S...WITH COLDEST
TEMPS LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS. FRIDAY WILL SHOW SOME IMPROVEMENT...BUT
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S IS STILL BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS FOR
THE BEGINNING OF MAY.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING NUDGES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
MOSTLY CLEAR...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ALLOWED TO RISE INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 70S AS WINDS BECOME MORE WRLY NEAR THE SURFACE...TAPPING
INTO WARMER GULF FLOW COMING OUT OF TEXAS. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW
DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD...
ENTERING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT...BECOMING NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. WHILE MOST OF THE
MOISTURE WILL BE CONTAINED CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW
TO OUR NE...STILL EXPECT SOME LOW END CHANCE POPS TO MAKE IT INTO
OUR CWA...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF...BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING ALL THE WAY INTO MONDAY...DESPITE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
TAKING HOLD. GENERALLY WRLY FLOW...EVEN ALOFT...AT THIS POINT...WILL
CONTINUE TO PULL IN WARMER TEMPS...TAPPING INTO THE GULF MOISTURE
ACROSS TX. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 70 DEGREE RANGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND STARTING OUT THE NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 823 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO HANG ON FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NEXT
12 TO 15 HOURS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z...WITH
PLACES IN FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY...INCLUDING SJS...LIKELY SEEING A
WINDOWN OF MVFR BETWEEN 10 AND 14Z. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO BE SEEN
OVERNIGHT...BUT THESE WILL BE LIGHT AND LIMITED IN AREAL COVERAGE.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING LIKELY SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA AFTER 15Z WEDNESDAY. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST...GENERALLY
IN BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN





000
FXUS63 KJKL 032002
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
402 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON FEATURE SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING AROUND THE APPALACHIAN REGION AS THE
BOUNDARY THAT HAD SPARKED SOME SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OVER THE
AREA YESTERDAY HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY NUDGE IN FROM THE WEST. WITH STOUT LOW PRESSURE
EXITING THE AREA AND THE NEXT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT.

WITH A FEW BREAKS TODAY IN THE CLOUD COVER...SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
DID DEVELOP AND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS IN THE SOUTH. AS A WEAK WAVE PASSES THE AREA TONIGHT A FEW
SHOWERS WILL POP UP AGAIN THE NORTH. THE CONTINUED CLOUD COVER
WILL KEEP THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG UNLIKELY. HEADING INTO THE DAY
TOMORROW...A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY
BY THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. WITH A DECENT GRADIENT IN
THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH...WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY WITH THE
FRONT...HOWEVER INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING. WILL EXPECT SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND FORCING FROM THE FRONT...SOME LOWER FREEZING
HEIGHTS WILL LEAD TO A FEW INSTANCES OF SMALL HAIL. A COLD CORE
LOW STALLING OVERHEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL LEAD TO COOLER
TEMPS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER. IN
FACT...TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S AND POSSIBLY SOME UPPER
30S. OVERALL...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE CLOUDY...COOL...AND A FEW SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL BE PASSING ACROSS KY TO START OFF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...PULLING MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIR DOWN INTO THE
REGION. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...KEEPING STRONG N TO S FLOW ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION INTO THE DAY SATURDAY...WHILE THE LOW REMAINS
PARKED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

AT THIS POINT...ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY IN
CANADA WILL BEGIN DROPPING SOUTHWARD. THE LOW TO OUR EAST WILL BEGIN
TO DISSOLVE AND MERGE INTO THE INCOMING LOW AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTHWARD SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WHILE THE UPPER LOW WILL STAY TO OUR
NE...EXPECT THE RETURN OF NW FLOW TO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. THE LOW WILL THEN START SHIFTING EASTWARD...WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING TAKING HOLD THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

LINGERING PRECIP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AND EVEN INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE SE ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO
LINGERING MOISTURE AND NW TO SE UPSLOPE FLOW THROUGH THE DAY. SO
LONG AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW STAY POSITIONED OVER THE
EASTERN COAST...THIS NW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE. THE STRONG N TO S
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO PULL IN DEEP CAA...WITH HIGHS THURSDAY ONLY
REACHING THE LOW TO MID 50S. AS CONDITIONS BEGIN CLEARING THURSDAY
NIGHT...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP OFF TO THE LOW TO MID 40S...WITH COLDEST
TEMPS LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS. FRIDAY WILL SHOW SOME IMPROVEMENT...BUT
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S IS STILL BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS FOR
THE BEGINNING OF MAY.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING NUDGES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
MOSTLY CLEAR...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ALLOWED TO RISE INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 70S AS WINDS BECOME MORE WRLY NEAR THE SURFACE...TAPPING
INTO WARMER GULF FLOW COMING OUT OF TEXAS. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW
DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD...
ENTERING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT...BECOMING NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. WHILE MOST OF THE
MOISTURE WILL BE CONTAINED CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW
TO OUR NE...STILL EXPECT SOME LOW END CHANCE POPS TO MAKE IT INTO
OUR CWA...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF...BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING ALL THE WAY INTO MONDAY...DESPITE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
TAKING HOLD. GENERALLY WRLY FLOW...EVEN ALOFT...AT THIS POINT...WILL
CONTINUE TO PULL IN WARMER TEMPS...TAPPING INTO THE GULF MOISTURE
ACROSS TX. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 70 DEGREE RANGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND STARTING OUT THE NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

WHILE MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER HAS LIFTED INTO A CUMULUS LAYER
ACROSS THE AREA...A FEW MVFR CIGS STILL REMAIN. THIS WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT LATER THIS EVENING. AS TEMPS COOL OFF TONIGHT AND NORTHWEST
FLOW CONTINUES...CIGS WILL LOWER AGAIN TONIGHT AND WITH ANY
CLEARING AREAS...SOME FOG WILL DEVELOP. WILL ANTICIPATE IFR AND
BELOW CIGS AGAIN TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING AGAIN AFTER 13Z TOMORROW.
AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA...SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL RELATIVELY BE LIGHT AND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER





000
FXUS63 KJKL 031903
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
303 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY HAS BROKEN
UP AND A FEW PEAKS OF SUN ARE REACHING THE SURFACE. AS WELL...SOME
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOP BUT THE CURRENT FORECAST STILL SEEMS TO HAVE
A HANDLE ON THIS. HAVE LOADED THE MOST CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1007 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

ISSUED AN UPDATE THIS MORNING TO INPUT THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS.
LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST IN MOST PLACES TO THE EAST.
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER TO THE WEST WILL LEAD TO SOME CU
DEVELOPMENT. FURTHER BREAK UP OF CLOUD COVER EASTWARD MAY LEAD TO
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING. WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST
AS IS FOR NOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 702 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

STILL A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OUT THERE THIS MORNING IN THE
EAST...BUT CERTAINLY LESS COVERAGE THAN EARLIER AND THAT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE THE TREND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WATCHING THE
TROUGH AXIS TO THE NORTH OVER CENTRAL INDIANA AND SOUTHERN OHIO
START TO LIGHT UP WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. THIS SHOULD
SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS THIS FEATURE MOVES IN. OVERALL
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING...SO NO CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

COLD FRONT HAS NOW SLIPPED INTO SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIP JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE KENTUCKY BY DAYBREAK. SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOP ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY...AND MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD ALSO BE SHIFTING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SLIP SOUTH INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING AND
STALL OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. FARTHER SOUTH...NOT MUCH SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS ONCE THE FRONT
EXITS SOUTH AND EAST...SO WILL ACTUALLY SQUEEZE IN A MUCH NEEDED
DRY DAY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. TONIGHT...NOT MUCH
CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH JUST INCHING EAST
AND SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL KICK THINGS OUT AS MID
LEVEL RIDGING SPREADS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL
TEMPORARILY END ANY SHOWER CHANCES. HOWEVER...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS KENTUCKY LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. IMPRESSIVE FORCING
WITH THE FRONT SHOULD YIELD A BROKEN TO PERHAPS WIDESPREAD LINE OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE INSTABILITY IS
WEAK...FREEZING LEVELS SHOULD BE COMING DOWN WITH THE FRONT...SO
SOME LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. WITH THE
FREEZING LEVELS ONLY ABOUT 5.5KFT...CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WE COULD
SEE ANY STORMS PRODUCING SOME PEA SIZE HAIL. WILL INCLUDE THE
MENTION OF HAIL IN THE HWO THIS MORNING.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...TODAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER AS CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY STAY IN PLACE WITH THE TROUGH AXIS. WILL ALSO GO
SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH LESS VALLEY/RIDGE DISPARITY FOR TONIGHT WITH
ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER. TOMORROW...WE MAY BE ABLE TO WARM UP
BRIEFLY BY MIDDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT BRINGS FALLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH
THE RAIN SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL BE PASSING ACROSS KY TO START OFF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...PULLING MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIR DOWN INTO THE
REGION. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...KEEPING STRONG N TO S FLOW ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION INTO THE DAY SATURDAY...WHILE THE LOW REMAINS
PARKED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

AT THIS POINT...ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY IN
CANADA WILL BEGIN DROPPING SOUTHWARD. THE LOW TO OUR EAST WILL BEGIN
TO DISSOLVE AND MERGE INTO THE INCOMING LOW AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTHWARD SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WHILE THE UPPER LOW WILL STAY TO OUR
NE...EXPECT THE RETURN OF NW FLOW TO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. THE LOW WILL THEN START SHIFTING EASTWARD...WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING TAKING HOLD THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

LINGERING PRECIP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AND EVEN INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE SE ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO
LINGERING MOISTURE AND NW TO SE UPSLOPE FLOW THROUGH THE DAY. SO
LONG AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW STAY POSITIONED OVER THE
EASTERN COAST...THIS NW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE. THE STRONG N TO S
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO PULL IN DEEP CAA...WITH HIGHS THURSDAY ONLY
REACHING THE LOW TO MID 50S. AS CONDITIONS BEGIN CLEARING THURSDAY
NIGHT...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP OFF TO THE LOW TO MID 40S...WITH COLDEST
TEMPS LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS. FRIDAY WILL SHOW SOME IMPROVEMENT...BUT
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S IS STILL BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS FOR
THE BEGINNING OF MAY.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING NUDGES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
MOSTLY CLEAR...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ALLOWED TO RISE INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 70S AS WINDS BECOME MORE WRLY NEAR THE SURFACE...TAPPING
INTO WARMER GULF FLOW COMING OUT OF TEXAS. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW
DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD...
ENTERING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT...BECOMING NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. WHILE MOST OF THE
MOISTURE WILL BE CONTAINED CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW
TO OUR NE...STILL EXPECT SOME LOW END CHANCE POPS TO MAKE IT INTO
OUR CWA...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF...BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING ALL THE WAY INTO MONDAY...DESPITE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
TAKING HOLD. GENERALLY WRLY FLOW...EVEN ALOFT...AT THIS POINT...WILL
CONTINUE TO PULL IN WARMER TEMPS...TAPPING INTO THE GULF MOISTURE
ACROSS TX. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 70 DEGREE RANGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND STARTING OUT THE NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

WHILE MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER HAS LIFTED INTO A CUMULUS LAYER
ACROSS THE AREA...A FEW MVFR CIGS STILL REMAIN. THIS WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT LATER THIS EVENING. AS TEMPS COOL OFF TONIGHT AND NORTHWEST
FLOW CONTINUES...CIGS WILL LOWER AGAIN TONIGHT AND WITH ANY
CLEARING AREAS...SOME FOG WILL DEVELOP. WILL ANTICIPATE IFR AND
BELOW CIGS AGAIN TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING AGAIN AFTER 13Z TOMORROW.
AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA...SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL RELATIVELY BE LIGHT AND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER





000
FXUS63 KJKL 031745
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
145 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY HAS BROKEN
UP AND A FEW PEAKS OF SUN ARE REACHING THE SURFACE. AS WELL...SOME
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOP BUT THE CURRENT FORECAST STILL SEEMS TO HAVE
A HANDLE ON THIS. HAVE LOADED THE MOST CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1007 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

ISSUED AN UPDATE THIS MORNING TO INPUT THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS.
LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST IN MOST PLACES TO THE EAST.
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER TO THE WEST WILL LEAD TO SOME CU
DEVELOPMENT. FURTHER BREAK UP OF CLOUD COVER EASTWARD MAY LEAD TO
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING. WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST
AS IS FOR NOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 702 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

STILL A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OUT THERE THIS MORNING IN THE
EAST...BUT CERTAINLY LESS COVERAGE THAN EARLIER AND THAT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE THE TREND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WATCHING THE
TROUGH AXIS TO THE NORTH OVER CENTRAL INDIANA AND SOUTHERN OHIO
START TO LIGHT UP WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. THIS SHOULD
SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS THIS FEATURE MOVES IN. OVERALL
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING...SO NO CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

COLD FRONT HAS NOW SLIPPED INTO SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIP JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE KENTUCKY BY DAYBREAK. SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOP ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY...AND MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD ALSO BE SHIFTING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SLIP SOUTH INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING AND
STALL OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. FARTHER SOUTH...NOT MUCH SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS ONCE THE FRONT
EXITS SOUTH AND EAST...SO WILL ACTUALLY SQUEEZE IN A MUCH NEEDED
DRY DAY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. TONIGHT...NOT MUCH
CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH JUST INCHING EAST
AND SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL KICK THINGS OUT AS MID
LEVEL RIDGING SPREADS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL
TEMPORARILY END ANY SHOWER CHANCES. HOWEVER...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS KENTUCKY LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. IMPRESSIVE FORCING
WITH THE FRONT SHOULD YIELD A BROKEN TO PERHAPS WIDESPREAD LINE OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE INSTABILITY IS
WEAK...FREEZING LEVELS SHOULD BE COMING DOWN WITH THE FRONT...SO
SOME LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. WITH THE
FREEZING LEVELS ONLY ABOUT 5.5KFT...CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WE COULD
SEE ANY STORMS PRODUCING SOME PEA SIZE HAIL. WILL INCLUDE THE
MENTION OF HAIL IN THE HWO THIS MORNING.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...TODAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER AS CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY STAY IN PLACE WITH THE TROUGH AXIS. WILL ALSO GO
SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH LESS VALLEY/RIDGE DISPARITY FOR TONIGHT WITH
ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER. TOMORROW...WE MAY BE ABLE TO WARM UP
BRIEFLY BY MIDDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT BRINGS FALLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH
THE RAIN SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A CHILLY REGIME WILL BE IN PLACE TO START THE PERIOD...AS A DEEP
UPPER LOW DESCENDS SOUTH OVER KY...AND THEN TURNS TOWARD THE EAST
COAST. LINGERING MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES UNDER THE LOW WILL
KEEP A THREAT OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AT LEAST INTO THURSDAY...
BEFORE THE UPPER LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
AND TAKES THE PRECIP WITH IT. THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
ON WEDNESDAY EVENING...BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS ENOUGH TO
PUT AN END TO DEEP CONVECTION. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH BY THURSDAY
MORNING THAT A FEW SNOWFLAKES COULD BE SEEN AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS NEAR THE VA BORDER.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER ARRIVING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND A RETURN OF SUNSHINE WILL RESULT IN A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA
SHOULD SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH KENTUCKY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. IT WILL STALL NEARBY BEFORE HEADING BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT EARLY IN THE NEW WORK WEEK. MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT LOOK
LIMITED... BUT NEVER THE LESS...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN
GENERATING LIGHT PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT. LOW POPS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

WHILE MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER HAS LIFTED INTO A CUMULUS LAYER
ACROSS THE AREA...A FEW MVFR CIGS STILL REMAIN. THIS WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT LATER THIS EVENING. AS TEMPS COOL OFF TONIGHT AND NORTHWEST
FLOW CONTINUES...CIGS WILL LOWER AGAIN TONIGHT AND WITH ANY
CLEARING AREAS...SOME FOG WILL DEVELOP. WILL ANTICIPATE IFR AND
BELOW CIGS AGAIN TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING AGAIN AFTER 13Z TOMORROW.
AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA...SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL RELATIVELY BE LIGHT AND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER





000
FXUS63 KJKL 031408
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1008 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1007 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

ISSUED AN UPDATE THIS MORNING TO INPUT THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS.
LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST IN MOST PLACES TO THE EAST.
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER TO THE WEST WILL LEAD TO SOME CU
DEVELOPMENT. FURTHER BREAK UP OF CLOUD COVER EASTWARD MAY LEAD TO
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING. WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST
AS IS FOR NOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 702 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

STILL A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OUT THERE THIS MORNING IN THE
EAST...BUT CERTAINLY LESS COVERAGE THAN EARLIER AND THAT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE THE TREND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WATCHING THE
TROUGH AXIS TO THE NORTH OVER CENTRAL INDIANA AND SOUTHERN OHIO
START TO LIGHT UP WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. THIS SHOULD
SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS THIS FEATURE MOVES IN. OVERALL
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING...SO NO CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

COLD FRONT HAS NOW SLIPPED INTO SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIP JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE KENTUCKY BY DAYBREAK. SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOP ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY...AND MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD ALSO BE SHIFTING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SLIP SOUTH INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING AND
STALL OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. FARTHER SOUTH...NOT MUCH SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS ONCE THE FRONT
EXITS SOUTH AND EAST...SO WILL ACTUALLY SQUEEZE IN A MUCH NEEDED
DRY DAY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. TONIGHT...NOT MUCH
CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH JUST INCHING EAST
AND SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL KICK THINGS OUT AS MID
LEVEL RIDGING SPREADS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL
TEMPORARILY END ANY SHOWER CHANCES. HOWEVER...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS KENTUCKY LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. IMPRESSIVE FORCING
WITH THE FRONT SHOULD YIELD A BROKEN TO PERHAPS WIDESPREAD LINE OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE INSTABILITY IS
WEAK...FREEZING LEVELS SHOULD BE COMING DOWN WITH THE FRONT...SO
SOME LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. WITH THE
FREEZING LEVELS ONLY ABOUT 5.5KFT...CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WE COULD
SEE ANY STORMS PRODUCING SOME PEA SIZE HAIL. WILL INCLUDE THE
MENTION OF HAIL IN THE HWO THIS MORNING.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...TODAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER AS CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY STAY IN PLACE WITH THE TROUGH AXIS. WILL ALSO GO
SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH LESS VALLEY/RIDGE DISPARITY FOR TONIGHT WITH
ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER. TOMORROW...WE MAY BE ABLE TO WARM UP
BRIEFLY BY MIDDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT BRINGS FALLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH
THE RAIN SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A CHILLY REGIME WILL BE IN PLACE TO START THE PERIOD...AS A DEEP
UPPER LOW DESCENDS SOUTH OVER KY...AND THEN TURNS TOWARD THE EAST
COAST. LINGERING MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES UNDER THE LOW WILL
KEEP A THREAT OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AT LEAST INTO THURSDAY...
BEFORE THE UPPER LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
AND TAKES THE PRECIP WITH IT. THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
ON WEDNESDAY EVENING...BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS ENOUGH TO
PUT AN END TO DEEP CONVECTION. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH BY THURSDAY
MORNING THAT A FEW SNOWFLAKES COULD BE SEEN AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS NEAR THE VA BORDER.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER ARRIVING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND A RETURN OF SUNSHINE WILL RESULT IN A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA
SHOULD SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH KENTUCKY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. IT WILL STALL NEARBY BEFORE HEADING BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT EARLY IN THE NEW WORK WEEK. MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT LOOK
LIMITED... BUT NEVER THE LESS...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN
GENERATING LIGHT PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT. LOW POPS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 702 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE PRESENTLY...WITH
SOME PLACES...MAINLY ON RIDGES REPORTING FAIRLY THICK FOG...WHILE
OTHERS ARE LIMITED TO MAINLY IFR CIGS. MEANWHILE...SOME OTHERS ARE
SITTING WITH MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS. CLEARLY A LARGE RANGE OUT
THERE THIS MORNING AND WE COULD GO IN AND OUT OF THESE VARIOUS
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE GENERAL TREND IS
THAT WE SHOULD REACH GENERALLY MVFR FOR MOST AREAS BY MID TO LATE
MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS
WILL START LOWERING TONIGHT...REACHING BACK INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY. SOME IFR MAY BE POSSIBLE VERY LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...KAS





000
FXUS63 KJKL 031408
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1008 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1007 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

ISSUED AN UPDATE THIS MORNING TO INPUT THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS.
LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST IN MOST PLACES TO THE EAST.
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER TO THE WEST WILL LEAD TO SOME CU
DEVELOPMENT. FURTHER BREAK UP OF CLOUD COVER EASTWARD MAY LEAD TO
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING. WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST
AS IS FOR NOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 702 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

STILL A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OUT THERE THIS MORNING IN THE
EAST...BUT CERTAINLY LESS COVERAGE THAN EARLIER AND THAT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE THE TREND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WATCHING THE
TROUGH AXIS TO THE NORTH OVER CENTRAL INDIANA AND SOUTHERN OHIO
START TO LIGHT UP WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. THIS SHOULD
SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS THIS FEATURE MOVES IN. OVERALL
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING...SO NO CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

COLD FRONT HAS NOW SLIPPED INTO SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIP JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE KENTUCKY BY DAYBREAK. SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOP ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY...AND MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD ALSO BE SHIFTING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SLIP SOUTH INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING AND
STALL OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. FARTHER SOUTH...NOT MUCH SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS ONCE THE FRONT
EXITS SOUTH AND EAST...SO WILL ACTUALLY SQUEEZE IN A MUCH NEEDED
DRY DAY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. TONIGHT...NOT MUCH
CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH JUST INCHING EAST
AND SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL KICK THINGS OUT AS MID
LEVEL RIDGING SPREADS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL
TEMPORARILY END ANY SHOWER CHANCES. HOWEVER...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS KENTUCKY LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. IMPRESSIVE FORCING
WITH THE FRONT SHOULD YIELD A BROKEN TO PERHAPS WIDESPREAD LINE OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE INSTABILITY IS
WEAK...FREEZING LEVELS SHOULD BE COMING DOWN WITH THE FRONT...SO
SOME LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. WITH THE
FREEZING LEVELS ONLY ABOUT 5.5KFT...CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WE COULD
SEE ANY STORMS PRODUCING SOME PEA SIZE HAIL. WILL INCLUDE THE
MENTION OF HAIL IN THE HWO THIS MORNING.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...TODAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER AS CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY STAY IN PLACE WITH THE TROUGH AXIS. WILL ALSO GO
SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH LESS VALLEY/RIDGE DISPARITY FOR TONIGHT WITH
ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER. TOMORROW...WE MAY BE ABLE TO WARM UP
BRIEFLY BY MIDDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT BRINGS FALLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH
THE RAIN SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A CHILLY REGIME WILL BE IN PLACE TO START THE PERIOD...AS A DEEP
UPPER LOW DESCENDS SOUTH OVER KY...AND THEN TURNS TOWARD THE EAST
COAST. LINGERING MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES UNDER THE LOW WILL
KEEP A THREAT OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AT LEAST INTO THURSDAY...
BEFORE THE UPPER LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
AND TAKES THE PRECIP WITH IT. THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
ON WEDNESDAY EVENING...BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS ENOUGH TO
PUT AN END TO DEEP CONVECTION. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH BY THURSDAY
MORNING THAT A FEW SNOWFLAKES COULD BE SEEN AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS NEAR THE VA BORDER.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER ARRIVING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND A RETURN OF SUNSHINE WILL RESULT IN A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA
SHOULD SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH KENTUCKY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. IT WILL STALL NEARBY BEFORE HEADING BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT EARLY IN THE NEW WORK WEEK. MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT LOOK
LIMITED... BUT NEVER THE LESS...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN
GENERATING LIGHT PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT. LOW POPS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 702 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE PRESENTLY...WITH
SOME PLACES...MAINLY ON RIDGES REPORTING FAIRLY THICK FOG...WHILE
OTHERS ARE LIMITED TO MAINLY IFR CIGS. MEANWHILE...SOME OTHERS ARE
SITTING WITH MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS. CLEARLY A LARGE RANGE OUT
THERE THIS MORNING AND WE COULD GO IN AND OUT OF THESE VARIOUS
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE GENERAL TREND IS
THAT WE SHOULD REACH GENERALLY MVFR FOR MOST AREAS BY MID TO LATE
MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS
WILL START LOWERING TONIGHT...REACHING BACK INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY. SOME IFR MAY BE POSSIBLE VERY LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...KAS





000
FXUS63 KJKL 031102
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
702 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 702 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

STILL A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OUT THERE THIS MORNING IN THE
EAST...BUT CERTAINLY LESS COVERAGE THAN EARLIER AND THAT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE THE TREND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WATCHING THE
TROUGH AXIS TO THE NORTH OVER CENTRAL INDIANA AND SOUTHERN OHIO
START TO LIGHT UP WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. THIS SHOULD
SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS THIS FEATURE MOVES IN. OVERALL
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING...SO NO CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

COLD FRONT HAS NOW SLIPPED INTO SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIP JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE KENTUCKY BY DAYBREAK. SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOP ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY...AND MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD ALSO BE SHIFTING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SLIP SOUTH INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING AND
STALL OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. FARTHER SOUTH...NOT MUCH SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS ONCE THE FRONT
EXITS SOUTH AND EAST...SO WILL ACTUALLY SQUEEZE IN A MUCH NEEDED
DRY DAY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. TONIGHT...NOT MUCH
CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH JUST INCHING EAST
AND SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL KICK THINGS OUT AS MID
LEVEL RIDGING SPREADS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL
TEMPORARILY END ANY SHOWER CHANCES. HOWEVER...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS KENTUCKY LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. IMPRESSIVE FORCING
WITH THE FRONT SHOULD YIELD A BROKEN TO PERHAPS WIDESPREAD LINE OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE INSTABILITY IS
WEAK...FREEZING LEVELS SHOULD BE COMING DOWN WITH THE FRONT...SO
SOME LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. WITH THE
FREEZING LEVELS ONLY ABOUT 5.5KFT...CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WE COULD
SEE ANY STORMS PRODUCING SOME PEA SIZE HAIL. WILL INCLUDE THE
MENTION OF HAIL IN THE HWO THIS MORNING.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...TODAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER AS CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY STAY IN PLACE WITH THE TROUGH AXIS. WILL ALSO GO
SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH LESS VALLEY/RIDGE DISPARITY FOR TONIGHT WITH
ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER. TOMORROW...WE MAY BE ABLE TO WARM UP
BRIEFLY BY MIDDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT BRINGS FALLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH
THE RAIN SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A CHILLY REGIME WILL BE IN PLACE TO START THE PERIOD...AS A DEEP
UPPER LOW DESCENDS SOUTH OVER KY...AND THEN TURNS TOWARD THE EAST
COAST. LINGERING MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES UNDER THE LOW WILL
KEEP A THREAT OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AT LEAST INTO THURSDAY...
BEFORE THE UPPER LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
AND TAKES THE PRECIP WITH IT. THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
ON WEDNESDAY EVENING...BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS ENOUGH TO
PUT AN END TO DEEP CONVECTION. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH BY THURSDAY
MORNING THAT A FEW SNOWFLAKES COULD BE SEEN AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS NEAR THE VA BORDER.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER ARRIVING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND A RETURN OF SUNSHINE WILL RESULT IN A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA
SHOULD SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH KENTUCKY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. IT WILL STALL NEARBY BEFORE HEADING BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT EARLY IN THE NEW WORK WEEK. MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT LOOK
LIMITED... BUT NEVER THE LESS...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN
GENERATING LIGHT PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT. LOW POPS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 702 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE PRESENTLY...WITH
SOME PLACES...MAINLY ON RIDGES REPORTING FAIRLY THICK FOG...WHILE
OTHERS ARE LIMITED TO MAINLY IFR CIGS. MEANWHILE...SOME OTHERS ARE
SITTING WITH MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS. CLEARLY A LARGE RANGE OUT
THERE THIS MORNING AND WE COULD GO IN AND OUT OF THESE VARIOUS
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE GENERAL TREND IS
THAT WE SHOULD REACH GENERALLY MVFR FOR MOST AREAS BY MID TO LATE
MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS
WILL START LOWERING TONIGHT...REACHING BACK INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY. SOME IFR MAY BE POSSIBLE VERY LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...KAS





000
FXUS63 KJKL 031102
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
702 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 702 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

STILL A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OUT THERE THIS MORNING IN THE
EAST...BUT CERTAINLY LESS COVERAGE THAN EARLIER AND THAT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE THE TREND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WATCHING THE
TROUGH AXIS TO THE NORTH OVER CENTRAL INDIANA AND SOUTHERN OHIO
START TO LIGHT UP WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. THIS SHOULD
SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS THIS FEATURE MOVES IN. OVERALL
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING...SO NO CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

COLD FRONT HAS NOW SLIPPED INTO SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIP JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE KENTUCKY BY DAYBREAK. SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOP ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY...AND MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD ALSO BE SHIFTING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SLIP SOUTH INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING AND
STALL OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. FARTHER SOUTH...NOT MUCH SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS ONCE THE FRONT
EXITS SOUTH AND EAST...SO WILL ACTUALLY SQUEEZE IN A MUCH NEEDED
DRY DAY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. TONIGHT...NOT MUCH
CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH JUST INCHING EAST
AND SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL KICK THINGS OUT AS MID
LEVEL RIDGING SPREADS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL
TEMPORARILY END ANY SHOWER CHANCES. HOWEVER...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS KENTUCKY LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. IMPRESSIVE FORCING
WITH THE FRONT SHOULD YIELD A BROKEN TO PERHAPS WIDESPREAD LINE OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE INSTABILITY IS
WEAK...FREEZING LEVELS SHOULD BE COMING DOWN WITH THE FRONT...SO
SOME LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. WITH THE
FREEZING LEVELS ONLY ABOUT 5.5KFT...CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WE COULD
SEE ANY STORMS PRODUCING SOME PEA SIZE HAIL. WILL INCLUDE THE
MENTION OF HAIL IN THE HWO THIS MORNING.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...TODAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER AS CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY STAY IN PLACE WITH THE TROUGH AXIS. WILL ALSO GO
SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH LESS VALLEY/RIDGE DISPARITY FOR TONIGHT WITH
ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER. TOMORROW...WE MAY BE ABLE TO WARM UP
BRIEFLY BY MIDDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT BRINGS FALLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH
THE RAIN SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A CHILLY REGIME WILL BE IN PLACE TO START THE PERIOD...AS A DEEP
UPPER LOW DESCENDS SOUTH OVER KY...AND THEN TURNS TOWARD THE EAST
COAST. LINGERING MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES UNDER THE LOW WILL
KEEP A THREAT OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AT LEAST INTO THURSDAY...
BEFORE THE UPPER LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
AND TAKES THE PRECIP WITH IT. THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
ON WEDNESDAY EVENING...BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS ENOUGH TO
PUT AN END TO DEEP CONVECTION. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH BY THURSDAY
MORNING THAT A FEW SNOWFLAKES COULD BE SEEN AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS NEAR THE VA BORDER.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER ARRIVING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND A RETURN OF SUNSHINE WILL RESULT IN A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA
SHOULD SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH KENTUCKY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. IT WILL STALL NEARBY BEFORE HEADING BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT EARLY IN THE NEW WORK WEEK. MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT LOOK
LIMITED... BUT NEVER THE LESS...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN
GENERATING LIGHT PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT. LOW POPS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 702 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE PRESENTLY...WITH
SOME PLACES...MAINLY ON RIDGES REPORTING FAIRLY THICK FOG...WHILE
OTHERS ARE LIMITED TO MAINLY IFR CIGS. MEANWHILE...SOME OTHERS ARE
SITTING WITH MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS. CLEARLY A LARGE RANGE OUT
THERE THIS MORNING AND WE COULD GO IN AND OUT OF THESE VARIOUS
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE GENERAL TREND IS
THAT WE SHOULD REACH GENERALLY MVFR FOR MOST AREAS BY MID TO LATE
MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS
WILL START LOWERING TONIGHT...REACHING BACK INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY. SOME IFR MAY BE POSSIBLE VERY LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...KAS





000
FXUS63 KJKL 030803
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
403 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

COLD FRONT HAS NOW SLIPPED INTO SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIP JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE KENTUCKY BY DAYBREAK. SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOP ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY...AND MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD ALSO BE SHIFTING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SLIP SOUTH INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING AND
STALL OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. FARTHER SOUTH...NOT MUCH SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS ONCE THE FRONT
EXITS SOUTH AND EAST...SO WILL ACTUALLY SQUEEZE IN A MUCH NEEDED
DRY DAY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. TONIGHT...NOT MUCH
CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH JUST INCHING EAST
AND SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL KICK THINGS OUT AS MID
LEVEL RIDGING SPREADS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL
TEMPORARILY END ANY SHOWER CHANCES. HOWEVER...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS KENTUCKY LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. IMPRESSIVE FORCING
WITH THE FRONT SHOULD YIELD A BROKEN TO PERHAPS WIDESPREAD LINE OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE INSTABILITY IS
WEAK...FREEZING LEVELS SHOULD BE COMING DOWN WITH THE FRONT...SO
SOME LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. WITH THE
FREEZING LEVELS ONLY ABOUT 5.5KFT...CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WE COULD
SEE ANY STORMS PRODUCING SOME PEA SIZE HAIL. WILL INCLUDE THE
MENTION OF HAIL IN THE HWO THIS MORNING.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...TODAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER AS CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY STAY IN PLACE WITH THE TROUGH AXIS. WILL ALSO GO
SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH LESS VALLEY/RIDGE DISPARITY FOR TONIGHT WITH
ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER. TOMORROW...WE MAY BE ABLE TO WARM UP
BRIEFLY BY MIDDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT BRINGS FALLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH
THE RAIN SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A CHILLY REGIME WILL BE IN PLACE TO START THE PERIOD...AS A DEEP
UPPER LOW DESCENDS SOUTH OVER KY...AND THEN TURNS TOWARD THE EAST
COAST. LINGERING MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES UNDER THE LOW WILL
KEEP A THREAT OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AT LEAST INTO THURSDAY...
BEFORE THE UPPER LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
AND TAKES THE PRECIP WITH IT. THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
ON WEDNESDAY EVENING...BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS ENOUGH TO
PUT AN END TO DEEP CONVECTION. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH BY THURSDAY
MORNING THAT A FEW SNOWFLAKES COULD BE SEEN AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS NEAR THE VA BORDER.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER ARRIVING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND A RETURN OF SUNSHINE WILL RESULT IN A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA
SHOULD SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH KENTUCKY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. IT WILL STALL NEARBY BEFORE HEADING BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT EARLY IN THE NEW WORK WEEK. MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT LOOK
LIMITED... BUT NEVER THE LESS...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN
GENERATING LIGHT PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT. LOW POPS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 209 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VISBYS WILL BE SEEN...PRIMARILY OVER
SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS ARE POSSIBLE LATE...BUT STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW QUICKLY WE SEE THESE IMPROVEMENTS. CLOUDS WILL
HOLD TOUGH THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR AREAWIDE
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. CIGS MAY COME BACK DOWN TO MVFR OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...KAS





000
FXUS63 KJKL 030803
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
403 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

COLD FRONT HAS NOW SLIPPED INTO SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIP JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE KENTUCKY BY DAYBREAK. SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOP ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY...AND MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD ALSO BE SHIFTING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SLIP SOUTH INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING AND
STALL OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. FARTHER SOUTH...NOT MUCH SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS ONCE THE FRONT
EXITS SOUTH AND EAST...SO WILL ACTUALLY SQUEEZE IN A MUCH NEEDED
DRY DAY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. TONIGHT...NOT MUCH
CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH JUST INCHING EAST
AND SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL KICK THINGS OUT AS MID
LEVEL RIDGING SPREADS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL
TEMPORARILY END ANY SHOWER CHANCES. HOWEVER...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS KENTUCKY LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. IMPRESSIVE FORCING
WITH THE FRONT SHOULD YIELD A BROKEN TO PERHAPS WIDESPREAD LINE OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE INSTABILITY IS
WEAK...FREEZING LEVELS SHOULD BE COMING DOWN WITH THE FRONT...SO
SOME LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. WITH THE
FREEZING LEVELS ONLY ABOUT 5.5KFT...CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WE COULD
SEE ANY STORMS PRODUCING SOME PEA SIZE HAIL. WILL INCLUDE THE
MENTION OF HAIL IN THE HWO THIS MORNING.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...TODAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER AS CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY STAY IN PLACE WITH THE TROUGH AXIS. WILL ALSO GO
SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH LESS VALLEY/RIDGE DISPARITY FOR TONIGHT WITH
ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER. TOMORROW...WE MAY BE ABLE TO WARM UP
BRIEFLY BY MIDDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT BRINGS FALLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH
THE RAIN SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A CHILLY REGIME WILL BE IN PLACE TO START THE PERIOD...AS A DEEP
UPPER LOW DESCENDS SOUTH OVER KY...AND THEN TURNS TOWARD THE EAST
COAST. LINGERING MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES UNDER THE LOW WILL
KEEP A THREAT OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AT LEAST INTO THURSDAY...
BEFORE THE UPPER LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
AND TAKES THE PRECIP WITH IT. THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
ON WEDNESDAY EVENING...BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS ENOUGH TO
PUT AN END TO DEEP CONVECTION. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH BY THURSDAY
MORNING THAT A FEW SNOWFLAKES COULD BE SEEN AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS NEAR THE VA BORDER.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER ARRIVING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND A RETURN OF SUNSHINE WILL RESULT IN A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA
SHOULD SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH KENTUCKY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. IT WILL STALL NEARBY BEFORE HEADING BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT EARLY IN THE NEW WORK WEEK. MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT LOOK
LIMITED... BUT NEVER THE LESS...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN
GENERATING LIGHT PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT. LOW POPS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 209 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VISBYS WILL BE SEEN...PRIMARILY OVER
SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS ARE POSSIBLE LATE...BUT STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW QUICKLY WE SEE THESE IMPROVEMENTS. CLOUDS WILL
HOLD TOUGH THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR AREAWIDE
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. CIGS MAY COME BACK DOWN TO MVFR OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...KAS





000
FXUS63 KJKL 030707
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
307 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

COLD FRONT HAS NOW SLIPPED INTO SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIP JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE KENTUCKY BY DAYBREAK. SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOP ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY...AND MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD ALSO BE SHIFTING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SLIP SOUTH INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING AND
STALL OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. FARTHER SOUTH...NOT MUCH SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS ONCE THE FRONT
EXITS SOUTH AND EAST...SO WILL ACTUALLY SQUEEZE IN A MUCH NEEDED
DRY DAY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. TONIGHT...NOT MUCH
CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH JUST INCHING EAST
AND SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL KICK THINGS OUT AS MID
LEVEL RIDGING SPREADS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL
TEMPORARILY END ANY SHOWER CHANCES. HOWEVER...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS KENTUCKY LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. IMPRESSIVE FORCING
WITH THE FRONT SHOULD YIELD A BROKEN TO PERHAPS WIDESPREAD LINE OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE INSTABILITY IS
WEAK...FREEZING LEVELS SHOULD BE COMING DOWN WITH THE FRONT...SO
SOME LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. WITH THE
FREEZING LEVELS ONLY ABOUT 5.5KFT...CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WE COULD
SEE ANY STORMS PRODUCING SOME PEA SIZE HAIL. WILL INCLUDE THE
MENTION OF HAIL IN THE HWO THIS MORNING.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...TODAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER AS CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY STAY IN PLACE WITH THE TROUGH AXIS. WILL ALSO GO
SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH LESS VALLEY/RIDGE DISPARITY FOR TONIGHT WITH
ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER. TOMORROW...WE MAY BE ABLE TO WARM UP
BRIEFLY BY MIDDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT BRINGS FALLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH
THE RAIN SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL BE SPINNING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A WAVE RIDING THROUGH THE REGION.
WHILE A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL AID IN KICKING OFF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS...AS COLD CORE 500 MB CLOSED LOW WILL SLIDE
SOUTH STEEPING LAPSE RATES AND LOWERING HEIGHTS. THEREFORE RIGHT
NOW WILL KEEP WITH BETTER POPS OVERALL THROUGH THE PERIOD ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE VERTICALLY
STACKED AS CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. SPOKES OF VORTICITY
WILL WRAP AROUND THIS UPPER LOW AS IT SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST
AND THEREFORE KEEP THE REGION UNSETTLED UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOW PROGRESS EAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND WE
SHOULD SEE A DRY STRETCH AT THAT POINT. SOME RIDGE RIDING UPPER
LEVEL WAVES AND BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY LEAD TO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
STORMS IN THE FAR NORTH AND NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY AND SHOWERS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

OVERALL TEMPS WILL START OFF WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE UPPER 30S IN A FEW SPOTS THURSDAY MORNING AND ONLY
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S FOR THURSDAY. HOWEVER SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND RISING HEIGHTS WILL LEAD TO RISING TEMPS INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 209 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VISBYS WILL BE SEEN...PRIMARILY OVER
SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS ARE POSSIBLE LATE...BUT STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW QUICKLY WE SEE THESE IMPROVEMENTS. CLOUDS WILL
HOLD TOUGH THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR AREAWIDE
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. CIGS MAY COME BACK DOWN TO MVFR OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...KAS





000
FXUS63 KJKL 030609
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
209 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 209 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

SHOWER COVERAGE HAS INCREASED QUITE A BIT IN THE EAST AND WILL
INCREASE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CHANGE. ALSO TWEAKED POPS DOWN
IN THE SOUTHWEST AS THEY SHOULD STAY DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. ALSO...BASED ON TRENDS...WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED UP SKY COVER
TO 100 PERCENT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THERE REMAINS VERY LITTLE
SUPPORT FOR ANY CLEARING AS THE LOW CLOUDS HOLD ON TOUGH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1038 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

RAIN HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW
POSSIBLE LIGHT SPRINKLES MOVING ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN BORDER.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. STILL
HAVE SOME VERY LOW END CHANCE POPS MENTIONED IN THE FAR EAST OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS JUST DUE TO MOST OF THE HI RES MODELS
POINTING AT SOME POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT...BUT OVERALL TREND IS FOR
LESSONING POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.

THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WAS CANCELLED DURING THE 9PM HOUR GIVEN
THE LACK OF FURTHER CONCERNS. THE FFA/HWO/AND FORECAST PACKAGE WERE
UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE REMOVAL OF THE WATCH. OTHERWISE...UPDATED
THE TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS IN THE NEAR TERM TO MAKE SURE
THEY WERE STILL ON TRACK WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS. ALL CHANGES HAVE
BEEN SAVED AND SENT TO NDFD/WEB...THOUGH NO FURTHER FORECAST
PACKAGE UPDATE IS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 612 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

DRIER AIR IS BEGINNING TO ENTRAIN INTO THE ONGOING RAIN ACROSS
EASTERN KY...ALLOWING IT TO BOTH LIGHTEN UP AND EVEN DIMINISH IS
SOME AREAS. WENT AHEAD AND UPDATED POPS AND WEATHER BASED ON THIS
LATEST TREND. WHILE SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY STILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER THIS EVENING...DID
LEAVE IN MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER. OTHERWISE...BASED ON LATEST
RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS LATEST HI RES MODEL DATA...WENT AHEAD AND
SHOWED A FASTER DIMINISHMENT OF THE RAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AT THIS POINT...WHAT RAIN WE DO HAVE
LEFT SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO NOT RESULT IN ANY FURTHER FLOODING
CONCERNS. WENT AHEAD AND RERAN ALL WEATHER GRIDS FROM NOW THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT TO SHOW COVERAGE WORDING INSTEAD OF
PROBABILITY...SINCE PRECIP IS ONGOING. ALSO... MADE SURE THE NEAR
TERM FORECAST FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS WERE REFLECTING
THE ONGOING CONDITIONS. THIS RESULTED IN THE LOWERING OF AFTERNOON
TEMPS...AS RAIN HAS KEPT CONDITIONS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
ORIGINALLY FORECASTED. ALL CHANGED HAVE BEEN SAVED AND SENT TO
NDFD/WEB. A NEW FORECAST PACKAGE HAS BEEN SENT OUT AS WELL TO
REFLECT THESE CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 456 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

SURFACE ANALYSIS AS OF 21Z FEATURES A PERSISTENT STALLED BOUNDARY
ALONG THE APPALACHIAN RANGE. WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS AND STORMS
MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING...MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY HAS BEEN TAPPED LEAVING
TRAILING STRATIFORM ACTIVITY OVER THE REST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.
WHILE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING...THE
BULK OF THE SEVERE ACTIVITY HAS COME TO AN END. WILL BE CANCELING
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. HOWEVER...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS STILL PRESENT SO THE
FLOOD THREAT WILL CONTINUE PAST 00Z TONIGHT. THE OTHER FORECAST
ISSUE STEMS AROUND IF ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER OCCUR...THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. IF SHOWERS REMAIN PRESENT...THE
FOG THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL. HAVE PUT FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE A STALLED BOUNDARY
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT.
THIA ALONG WITH SOME INCREASED INSTABILITY TODAY AND A WAVE RIDING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS RESULTED IN SOME SEVERE
CONVECTION AND SOME TRAINING STORMS OVER AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN
WELL SATURATED THE PAST 48 HOURS. WITH INSTABILITY ON THE WANE
AFTER BEING WELL WORKED OVER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING...THE SEVERE CONVECTION SHOULD BE ENDING BY 00Z THIS
EVENING IF NOT BEFORE THEN. HAVE MENTIONED SOME LARGE HAIL
POTENTIAL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN THE ZFP AND HWO. HOWEVER...WITH
STORMS TRAINING OVER THE SAME AREA AND LOW CENTROID STORMS WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL LASTING INTO THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY
OVERNIGHT...THE FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE.

CURRENT MODEL TRENDS HEADING INTO TONIGHT SUGGEST THE LAST OF THE
HEAVY RAIN SHIFTING NORTHEAST PAST THE AREA WILL OCCUR BY 06Z AS
THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHIFTS PAST THE AREA AS WELL.
WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH GOING THROUGH TONIGHT AS A FEW SHOWERS
WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS AS WELL.

HEADING INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...IT APPEARS A VAGUE SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINS ALONG THE APPALACHIANS AS A SECOND SHORT WAVE
DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN UPPER GREAT LAKES. DESPITE THE
COOLER CONDITIONS AND LACK OF INSTABILITY...THE LINGERING SURFACE
BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH A ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SLIDING SOUTHEAST
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. MID DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS LOW. NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND OVERALL COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL KEEP MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL BE SPINNING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A WAVE RIDING THROUGH THE REGION.
WHILE A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL AID IN KICKING OFF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS...AS COLD CORE 500 MB CLOSED LOW WILL SLIDE
SOUTH STEEPING LAPSE RATES AND LOWERING HEIGHTS. THEREFORE RIGHT
NOW WILL KEEP WITH BETTER POPS OVERALL THROUGH THE PERIOD ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE VERTICALLY
STACKED AS CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. SPOKES OF VORTICITY
WILL WRAP AROUND THIS UPPER LOW AS IT SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST
AND THEREFORE KEEP THE REGION UNSETTLED UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOW PROGRESS EAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND WE
SHOULD SEE A DRY STRETCH AT THAT POINT. SOME RIDGE RIDING UPPER
LEVEL WAVES AND BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY LEAD TO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
STORMS IN THE FAR NORTH AND NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY AND SHOWERS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

OVERALL TEMPS WILL START OFF WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE UPPER 30S IN A FEW SPOTS THURSDAY MORNING AND ONLY
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S FOR THURSDAY. HOWEVER SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND RISING HEIGHTS WILL LEAD TO RISING TEMPS INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 209 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VISBYS WILL BE SEEN...PRIMARILY OVER
SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS ARE POSSIBLE LATE...BUT STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW QUICKLY WE SEE THESE IMPROVEMENTS. CLOUDS WILL
HOLD TOUGH THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR AREAWIDE
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. CIGS MAY COME BACK DOWN TO MVFR OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...KAS





000
FXUS63 KJKL 030609
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
209 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 209 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

SHOWER COVERAGE HAS INCREASED QUITE A BIT IN THE EAST AND WILL
INCREASE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CHANGE. ALSO TWEAKED POPS DOWN
IN THE SOUTHWEST AS THEY SHOULD STAY DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. ALSO...BASED ON TRENDS...WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED UP SKY COVER
TO 100 PERCENT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THERE REMAINS VERY LITTLE
SUPPORT FOR ANY CLEARING AS THE LOW CLOUDS HOLD ON TOUGH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1038 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

RAIN HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW
POSSIBLE LIGHT SPRINKLES MOVING ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN BORDER.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. STILL
HAVE SOME VERY LOW END CHANCE POPS MENTIONED IN THE FAR EAST OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS JUST DUE TO MOST OF THE HI RES MODELS
POINTING AT SOME POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT...BUT OVERALL TREND IS FOR
LESSONING POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.

THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WAS CANCELLED DURING THE 9PM HOUR GIVEN
THE LACK OF FURTHER CONCERNS. THE FFA/HWO/AND FORECAST PACKAGE WERE
UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE REMOVAL OF THE WATCH. OTHERWISE...UPDATED
THE TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS IN THE NEAR TERM TO MAKE SURE
THEY WERE STILL ON TRACK WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS. ALL CHANGES HAVE
BEEN SAVED AND SENT TO NDFD/WEB...THOUGH NO FURTHER FORECAST
PACKAGE UPDATE IS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 612 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

DRIER AIR IS BEGINNING TO ENTRAIN INTO THE ONGOING RAIN ACROSS
EASTERN KY...ALLOWING IT TO BOTH LIGHTEN UP AND EVEN DIMINISH IS
SOME AREAS. WENT AHEAD AND UPDATED POPS AND WEATHER BASED ON THIS
LATEST TREND. WHILE SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY STILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER THIS EVENING...DID
LEAVE IN MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER. OTHERWISE...BASED ON LATEST
RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS LATEST HI RES MODEL DATA...WENT AHEAD AND
SHOWED A FASTER DIMINISHMENT OF THE RAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AT THIS POINT...WHAT RAIN WE DO HAVE
LEFT SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO NOT RESULT IN ANY FURTHER FLOODING
CONCERNS. WENT AHEAD AND RERAN ALL WEATHER GRIDS FROM NOW THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT TO SHOW COVERAGE WORDING INSTEAD OF
PROBABILITY...SINCE PRECIP IS ONGOING. ALSO... MADE SURE THE NEAR
TERM FORECAST FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS WERE REFLECTING
THE ONGOING CONDITIONS. THIS RESULTED IN THE LOWERING OF AFTERNOON
TEMPS...AS RAIN HAS KEPT CONDITIONS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
ORIGINALLY FORECASTED. ALL CHANGED HAVE BEEN SAVED AND SENT TO
NDFD/WEB. A NEW FORECAST PACKAGE HAS BEEN SENT OUT AS WELL TO
REFLECT THESE CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 456 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

SURFACE ANALYSIS AS OF 21Z FEATURES A PERSISTENT STALLED BOUNDARY
ALONG THE APPALACHIAN RANGE. WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS AND STORMS
MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING...MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY HAS BEEN TAPPED LEAVING
TRAILING STRATIFORM ACTIVITY OVER THE REST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.
WHILE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING...THE
BULK OF THE SEVERE ACTIVITY HAS COME TO AN END. WILL BE CANCELING
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. HOWEVER...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS STILL PRESENT SO THE
FLOOD THREAT WILL CONTINUE PAST 00Z TONIGHT. THE OTHER FORECAST
ISSUE STEMS AROUND IF ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER OCCUR...THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. IF SHOWERS REMAIN PRESENT...THE
FOG THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL. HAVE PUT FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE A STALLED BOUNDARY
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT.
THIA ALONG WITH SOME INCREASED INSTABILITY TODAY AND A WAVE RIDING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS RESULTED IN SOME SEVERE
CONVECTION AND SOME TRAINING STORMS OVER AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN
WELL SATURATED THE PAST 48 HOURS. WITH INSTABILITY ON THE WANE
AFTER BEING WELL WORKED OVER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING...THE SEVERE CONVECTION SHOULD BE ENDING BY 00Z THIS
EVENING IF NOT BEFORE THEN. HAVE MENTIONED SOME LARGE HAIL
POTENTIAL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN THE ZFP AND HWO. HOWEVER...WITH
STORMS TRAINING OVER THE SAME AREA AND LOW CENTROID STORMS WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL LASTING INTO THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY
OVERNIGHT...THE FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE.

CURRENT MODEL TRENDS HEADING INTO TONIGHT SUGGEST THE LAST OF THE
HEAVY RAIN SHIFTING NORTHEAST PAST THE AREA WILL OCCUR BY 06Z AS
THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHIFTS PAST THE AREA AS WELL.
WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH GOING THROUGH TONIGHT AS A FEW SHOWERS
WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS AS WELL.

HEADING INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...IT APPEARS A VAGUE SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINS ALONG THE APPALACHIANS AS A SECOND SHORT WAVE
DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN UPPER GREAT LAKES. DESPITE THE
COOLER CONDITIONS AND LACK OF INSTABILITY...THE LINGERING SURFACE
BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH A ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SLIDING SOUTHEAST
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. MID DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS LOW. NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND OVERALL COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL KEEP MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL BE SPINNING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A WAVE RIDING THROUGH THE REGION.
WHILE A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL AID IN KICKING OFF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS...AS COLD CORE 500 MB CLOSED LOW WILL SLIDE
SOUTH STEEPING LAPSE RATES AND LOWERING HEIGHTS. THEREFORE RIGHT
NOW WILL KEEP WITH BETTER POPS OVERALL THROUGH THE PERIOD ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE VERTICALLY
STACKED AS CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. SPOKES OF VORTICITY
WILL WRAP AROUND THIS UPPER LOW AS IT SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST
AND THEREFORE KEEP THE REGION UNSETTLED UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOW PROGRESS EAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND WE
SHOULD SEE A DRY STRETCH AT THAT POINT. SOME RIDGE RIDING UPPER
LEVEL WAVES AND BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY LEAD TO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
STORMS IN THE FAR NORTH AND NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY AND SHOWERS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

OVERALL TEMPS WILL START OFF WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE UPPER 30S IN A FEW SPOTS THURSDAY MORNING AND ONLY
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S FOR THURSDAY. HOWEVER SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND RISING HEIGHTS WILL LEAD TO RISING TEMPS INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 209 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VISBYS WILL BE SEEN...PRIMARILY OVER
SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS ARE POSSIBLE LATE...BUT STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW QUICKLY WE SEE THESE IMPROVEMENTS. CLOUDS WILL
HOLD TOUGH THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR AREAWIDE
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. CIGS MAY COME BACK DOWN TO MVFR OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...KAS





000
FXUS63 KJKL 030245
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1045 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1038 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

RAIN HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW
POSSIBLE LIGHT SPRINKLES MOVING ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN BORDER.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. STILL
HAVE SOME VERY LOW END CHANCE POPS MENTIONED IN THE FAR EAST OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS JUST DUE TO MOST OF THE HI RES MODELS
POINTING AT SOME POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT...BUT OVERALL TREND IS FOR
LESSONING POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.

THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WAS CANCELLED DURING THE 9PM HOUR GIVEN
THE LACK OF FURTHER CONCERNS. THE FFA/HWO/AND FORECAST PACKAGE WERE
UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE REMOVAL OF THE WATCH. OTHERWISE...UPDATED
THE TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS IN THE NEAR TERM TO MAKE SURE
THEY WERE STILL ON TRACK WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS. ALL CHANGES HAVE
BEEN SAVED AND SENT TO NDFD/WEB...THOUGH NO FURTHER FORECAST
PACKAGE UPDATE IS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 612 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

DRIER AIR IS BEGINNING TO ENTRAIN INTO THE ONGOING RAIN ACROSS
EASTERN KY...ALLOWING IT TO BOTH LIGHTEN UP AND EVEN DIMINISH IS
SOME AREAS. WENT AHEAD AND UPDATED POPS AND WEATHER BASED ON THIS
LATEST TREND. WHILE SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY STILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER THIS EVENING...DID
LEAVE IN MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER. OTHERWISE...BASED ON LATEST
RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS LATEST HI RES MODEL DATA...WENT AHEAD AND
SHOWED A FASTER DIMINISHMENT OF THE RAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AT THIS POINT...WHAT RAIN WE DO HAVE
LEFT SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO NOT RESULT IN ANY FURTHER FLOODING
CONCERNS. WENT AHEAD AND RERAN ALL WEATHER GRIDS FROM NOW THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT TO SHOW COVERAGE WORDING INSTEAD OF
PROBABILITY...SINCE PRECIP IS ONGOING. ALSO... MADE SURE THE NEAR
TERM FORECAST FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS WERE REFLECTING
THE ONGOING CONDITIONS. THIS RESULTED IN THE LOWERING OF AFTERNOON
TEMPS...AS RAIN HAS KEPT CONDITIONS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
ORIGINALLY FORECASTED. ALL CHANGED HAVE BEEN SAVED AND SENT TO
NDFD/WEB. A NEW FORECAST PACKAGE HAS BEEN SENT OUT AS WELL TO
REFLECT THESE CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 456 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

SURFACE ANALYSIS AS OF 21Z FEATURES A PERSISTENT STALLED BOUNDARY
ALONG THE APPALACHIAN RANGE. WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS AND STORMS
MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING...MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY HAS BEEN TAPPED LEAVING
TRAILING STRATIFORM ACTIVITY OVER THE REST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.
WHILE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING...THE
BULK OF THE SEVERE ACTIVITY HAS COME TO AN END. WILL BE CANCELING
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. HOWEVER...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS STILL PRESENT SO THE
FLOOD THREAT WILL CONTINUE PAST 00Z TONIGHT. THE OTHER FORECAST
ISSUE STEMS AROUND IF ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER OCCUR...THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. IF SHOWERS REMAIN PRESENT...THE
FOG THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL. HAVE PUT FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE A STALLED BOUNDARY
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT.
THIA ALONG WITH SOME INCREASED INSTABILITY TODAY AND A WAVE RIDING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS RESULTED IN SOME SEVERE
CONVECTION AND SOME TRAINING STORMS OVER AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN
WELL SATURATED THE PAST 48 HOURS. WITH INSTABILITY ON THE WANE
AFTER BEING WELL WORKED OVER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING...THE SEVERE CONVECTION SHOULD BE ENDING BY 00Z THIS
EVENING IF NOT BEFORE THEN. HAVE MENTIONED SOME LARGE HAIL
POTENTIAL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN THE ZFP AND HWO. HOWEVER...WITH
STORMS TRAINING OVER THE SAME AREA AND LOW CENTROID STORMS WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL LASTING INTO THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY
OVERNIGHT...THE FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE.

CURRENT MODEL TRENDS HEADING INTO TONIGHT SUGGEST THE LAST OF THE
HEAVY RAIN SHIFTING NORTHEAST PAST THE AREA WILL OCCUR BY 06Z AS
THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHIFTS PAST THE AREA AS WELL.
WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH GOING THROUGH TONIGHT AS A FEW SHOWERS
WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS AS WELL.

HEADING INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...IT APPEARS A VAGUE SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINS ALONG THE APPALACHIANS AS A SECOND SHORT WAVE
DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN UPPER GREAT LAKES. DESPITE THE
COOLER CONDITIONS AND LACK OF INSTABILITY...THE LINGERING SURFACE
BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH A ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SLIDING SOUTHEAST
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. MID DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS LOW. NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND OVERALL COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL KEEP MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL BE SPINNING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A WAVE RIDING THROUGH THE REGION.
WHILE A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL AID IN KICKING OFF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS...AS COLD CORE 500 MB CLOSED LOW WILL SLIDE
SOUTH STEEPING LAPSE RATES AND LOWERING HEIGHTS. THEREFORE RIGHT
NOW WILL KEEP WITH BETTER POPS OVERALL THROUGH THE PERIOD ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE VERTICALLY
STACKED AS CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. SPOKES OF VORTICITY
WILL WRAP AROUND THIS UPPER LOW AS IT SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST
AND THEREFORE KEEP THE REGION UNSETTLED UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOW PROGRESS EAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND WE
SHOULD SEE A DRY STRETCH AT THAT POINT. SOME RIDGE RIDING UPPER
LEVEL WAVES AND BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY LEAD TO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
STORMS IN THE FAR NORTH AND NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY AND SHOWERS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

OVERALL TEMPS WILL START OFF WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE UPPER 30S IN A FEW SPOTS THURSDAY MORNING AND ONLY
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S FOR THURSDAY. HOWEVER SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND RISING HEIGHTS WILL LEAD TO RISING TEMPS INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

RAIN HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE CWA...THOUGH A FEW STRAY AREAS OF
DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. FOG THAT INUNDATED THE TAF SITES EARLIER AS THE RAIN
CAME TO AN END HAS SINCE LIFTED...THOUGH A LOW CIG DECK HAS
CONTINUED AT MOST TAF SITES. AT THIS POINT...COULDN/T RULE OUT
SOME FURTHER FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...BUT BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS...EXPECT THIS TO BE MORE OF A LOW CIG EVENT. IFR TO LIFR
/OR BELOW AIRPORT MINS/ CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KJKL
WHERE IT IS ALREADY ONGOING. SOME VARIATION IN AND OUT OF THESE
CATEGORIES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. CIGS WILL IMPROVE AS WE HEAD
INTO THE DAY TOMORROW...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE MVFR
CATEGORY. SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHRA WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN TAF SITES OF JKL AND
SJS...THOUGH EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY FROM THE
NW.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...JMW





000
FXUS63 KJKL 030001
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
801 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 612 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

DRIER AIR IS BEGINNING TO ENTRAIN INTO THE ONGOING RAIN ACROSS
EASTERN KY...ALLOWING IT TO BOTH LIGHTEN UP AND EVEN DIMINISH IS
SOME AREAS. WENT AHEAD AND UPDATED POPS AND WEATHER BASED ON THIS
LATEST TREND. WHILE SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY STILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER THIS EVENING...DID
LEAVE IN MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER. OTHERWISE...BASED ON LATEST
RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS LATEST HI RES MODEL DATA...WENT AHEAD AND
SHOWED A FASTER DIMINISHMENT OF THE RAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AT THIS POINT...WHAT RAIN WE DO HAVE
LEFT SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO NOT RESULT IN ANY FURTHER FLOODING
CONCERNS. WENT AHEAD AND RERAN ALL WEATHER GRIDS FROM NOW THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT TO SHOW COVERAGE WORDING INSTEAD OF
PROBABILITY...SINCE PRECIP IS ONGOING. ALSO... MADE SURE THE NEAR
TERM FORECAST FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS WERE REFLECTING
THE ONGOING CONDITIONS. THIS RESULTED IN THE LOWERING OF AFTERNOON
TEMPS...AS RAIN HAS KEPT CONDITIONS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
ORIGINALLY FORECASTED. ALL CHANGED HAVE BEEN SAVED AND SENT TO
NDFD/WEB. A NEW FORECAST PACKAGE HAS BEEN SENT OUT AS WELL TO
REFLECT THESE CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 456 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

SURFACE ANALYSIS AS OF 21Z FEATURES A PERSISTENT STALLED BOUNDARY
ALONG THE APPALACHIAN RANGE. WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS AND STORMS
MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING...MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY HAS BEEN TAPPED LEAVING
TRAILING STRATIFORM ACTIVITY OVER THE REST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.
WHILE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING...THE
BULK OF THE SEVERE ACTIVITY HAS COME TO AN END. WILL BE CANCELING
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. HOWEVER...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS STILL PRESENT SO THE
FLOOD THREAT WILL CONTINUE PAST 00Z TONIGHT. THE OTHER FORECAST
ISSUE STEMS AROUND IF ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER OCCUR...THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. IF SHOWERS REMAIN PRESENT...THE
FOG THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL. HAVE PUT FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE A STALLED BOUNDARY
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT.
THIA ALONG WITH SOME INCREASED INSTABILITY TODAY AND A WAVE RIDING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS RESULTED IN SOME SEVERE
CONVECTION AND SOME TRAINING STORMS OVER AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN
WELL SATURATED THE PAST 48 HOURS. WITH INSTABILITY ON THE WANE
AFTER BEING WELL WORKED OVER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING...THE SEVERE CONVECTION SHOULD BE ENDING BY 00Z THIS
EVENING IF NOT BEFORE THEN. HAVE MENTIONED SOME LARGE HAIL
POTENTIAL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN THE ZFP AND HWO. HOWEVER...WITH
STORMS TRAINING OVER THE SAME AREA AND LOW CENTROID STORMS WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL LASTING INTO THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY
OVERNIGHT...THE FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE.

CURRENT MODEL TRENDS HEADING INTO TONIGHT SUGGEST THE LAST OF THE
HEAVY RAIN SHIFTING NORTHEAST PAST THE AREA WILL OCCUR BY 06Z AS
THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHIFTS PAST THE AREA AS WELL.
WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH GOING THROUGH TONIGHT AS A FEW SHOWERS
WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS AS WELL.

HEADING INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...IT APPEARS A VAGUE SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINS ALONG THE APPALACHIANS AS A SECOND SHORT WAVE
DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN UPPER GREAT LAKES. DESPITE THE
COOLER CONDITIONS AND LACK OF INSTABILITY...THE LINGERING SURFACE
BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH A ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SLIDING SOUTHEAST
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. MID DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS LOW. NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND OVERALL COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL KEEP MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL BE SPINNING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A WAVE RIDING THROUGH THE REGION.
WHILE A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL AID IN KICKING OFF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS...AS COLD CORE 500 MB CLOSED LOW WILL SLIDE
SOUTH STEEPING LAPSE RATES AND LOWERING HEIGHTS. THEREFORE RIGHT
NOW WILL KEEP WITH BETTER POPS OVERALL THROUGH THE PERIOD ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE VERTICALLY
STACKED AS CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. SPOKES OF VORTICITY
WILL WRAP AROUND THIS UPPER LOW AS IT SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST
AND THEREFORE KEEP THE REGION UNSETTLED UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOW PROGRESS EAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND WE
SHOULD SEE A DRY STRETCH AT THAT POINT. SOME RIDGE RIDING UPPER
LEVEL WAVES AND BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY LEAD TO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
STORMS IN THE FAR NORTH AND NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY AND SHOWERS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

OVERALL TEMPS WILL START OFF WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE UPPER 30S IN A FEW SPOTS THURSDAY MORNING AND ONLY
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S FOR THURSDAY. HOWEVER SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND RISING HEIGHTS WILL LEAD TO RISING TEMPS INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 801 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

DRY AIR CONTINUES TO ENTRAIN INTO EASTERN KY...WITH MUCH OF THE
RAIN ON A DIMINISHING TREND. EXPECT ANY REMAINING RAINFALL TO
COME TO AN END BETWEEN 1 AND 2Z. OTHERWISE...LINGERING MOISTURE
AND LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN DECENT FOG
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MANY OF THE TAF SITES. UNFORTUNATELY THE EXACT
IMPACTS ON VIS AND CIGS IS STILL IN LOW CONFIDENCE. TRIED TO GEAR
TOWARDS THE LATEST GUIDANCE FOR THE OVERNIGHT...WHICH IS SHOWING
LIFR AND BELOW AIRPORT MINS FOR JKL AND SJS...WITH IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. EXPECT SOME VARIANCE IN THESE CATEGORIES
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS WELL. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE BACK
IN...MAINLY AT THE EASTERN TAF SITES DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW...WITH VIS AND CIG SHOWING IMPROVEMENT AFTER DAYBREAK.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...MAINLY FROM THE
NW.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR KYZ080-084>088-104-
106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...JMW





000
FXUS63 KJKL 022212
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
612 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 612 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

DRIER AIR IS BEGINNING TO ENTRAIN INTO THE ONGOING RAIN ACROSS
EASTERN KY...ALLOWING IT TO BOTH LIGHTEN UP AND EVEN DIMINISH IS
SOME AREAS. WENT AHEAD AND UPDATED POPS AND WEATHER BASED ON THIS
LATEST TREND. WHILE SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY STILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER THIS EVENING...DID
LEAVE IN MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER. OTHERWISE...BASED ON LATEST
RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS LATEST HI RES MODEL DATA...WENT AHEAD AND
SHOWED A FASTER DIMINISHMENT OF THE RAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AT THIS POINT...WHAT RAIN WE DO HAVE
LEFT SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO NOT RESULT IN ANY FURTHER FLOODING
CONCERNS. WENT AHEAD AND RERAN ALL WEATHER GRIDS FROM NOW THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT TO SHOW COVERAGE WORDING INSTEAD OF
PROBABILITY...SINCE PRECIP IS ONGOING. ALSO... MADE SURE THE NEAR
TERM FORECAST FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS WERE REFLECTING
THE ONGOING CONDITIONS. THIS RESULTED IN THE LOWERING OF AFTERNOON
TEMPS...AS RAIN HAS KEPT CONDITIONS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
ORIGINALLY FORECASTED. ALL CHANGED HAVE BEEN SAVED AND SENT TO
NDFD/WEB. A NEW FORECAST PACKAGE HAS BEEN SENT OUT AS WELL TO
REFLECT THESE CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 456 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

SURFACE ANALYSIS AS OF 21Z FEATURES A PERSISTENT STALLED BOUNDARY
ALONG THE APPALACHIAN RANGE. WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS AND STORMS
MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING...MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY HAS BEEN TAPPED LEAVING
TRAILING STRATIFORM ACTIVITY OVER THE REST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.
WHILE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING...THE
BULK OF THE SEVERE ACTIVITY HAS COME TO AN END. WILL BE CANCELING
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. HOWEVER...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS STILL PRESENT SO THE
FLOOD THREAT WILL CONTINUE PAST 00Z TONIGHT. THE OTHER FORECAST
ISSUE STEMS AROUND IF ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER OCCUR...THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. IF SHOWERS REMAIN PRESENT...THE
FOG THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL. HAVE PUT FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE A STALLED BOUNDARY
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT.
THIA ALONG WITH SOME INCREASED INSTABILITY TODAY AND A WAVE RIDING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS RESULTED IN SOME SEVERE
CONVECTION AND SOME TRAINING STORMS OVER AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN
WELL SATURATED THE PAST 48 HOURS. WITH INSTABILITY ON THE WANE
AFTER BEING WELL WORKED OVER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING...THE SEVERE CONVECTION SHOULD BE ENDING BY 00Z THIS
EVENING IF NOT BEFORE THEN. HAVE MENTIONED SOME LARGE HAIL
POTENTIAL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN THE ZFP AND HWO. HOWEVER...WITH
STORMS TRAINING OVER THE SAME AREA AND LOW CENTROID STORMS WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL LASTING INTO THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY
OVERNIGHT...THE FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE.

CURRENT MODEL TRENDS HEADING INTO TONIGHT SUGGEST THE LAST OF THE
HEAVY RAIN SHIFTING NORTHEAST PAST THE AREA WILL OCCUR BY 06Z AS
THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHIFTS PAST THE AREA AS WELL.
WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH GOING THROUGH TONIGHT AS A FEW SHOWERS
WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS AS WELL.

HEADING INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...IT APPEARS A VAGUE SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINS ALONG THE APPALACHIANS AS A SECOND SHORT WAVE
DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN UPPER GREAT LAKES. DESPITE THE
COOLER CONDITIONS AND LACK OF INSTABILITY...THE LINGERING SURFACE
BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH A ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SLIDING SOUTHEAST
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. MID DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS LOW. NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND OVERALL COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL KEEP MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL BE SPINNING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A WAVE RIDING THROUGH THE REGION.
WHILE A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL AID IN KICKING OFF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS...AS COLD CORE 500 MB CLOSED LOW WILL SLIDE
SOUTH STEEPING LAPSE RATES AND LOWERING HEIGHTS. THEREFORE RIGHT
NOW WILL KEEP WITH BETTER POPS OVERALL THROUGH THE PERIOD ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE VERTICALLY
STACKED AS CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. SPOKES OF VORTICITY
WILL WRAP AROUND THIS UPPER LOW AS IT SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST
AND THEREFORE KEEP THE REGION UNSETTLED UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOW PROGRESS EAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND WE
SHOULD SEE A DRY STRETCH AT THAT POINT. SOME RIDGE RIDING UPPER
LEVEL WAVES AND BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY LEAD TO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
STORMS IN THE FAR NORTH AND NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY AND SHOWERS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

OVERALL TEMPS WILL START OFF WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE UPPER 30S IN A FEW SPOTS THURSDAY MORNING AND ONLY
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S FOR THURSDAY. HOWEVER SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND RISING HEIGHTS WILL LEAD TO RISING TEMPS INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN OVER THIS AREA THIS
MORNING BEFORE BECOMING MAINLY VFR BY MIDDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
INTERACT WITH A SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH TO BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD
BRING SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VISBYS. AS THE SYSTEM/FRONT
DEPART TONIGHT...LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
WITH MVFR BECOMING DOMINANT OVERNIGHT. SOME IFR CIGS MAY BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AS CIGS CONTINUE TO LOWER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR KYZ080-084>088-104-
106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...KAS





000
FXUS63 KJKL 022056
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
456 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 456 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

SURFACE ANALYSIS AS OF 21Z FEATURES A PERSISTENT STALLED BOUNDARY
ALONG THE APPALACHIAN RANGE. WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS AND STORMS
MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING...MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY HAS BEEN TAPPED LEAVING
TRAILING STRATIFORM ACTIVITY OVER THE REST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.
WHILE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING...THE
BULK OF THE SEVERE ACTIVITY HAS COME TO AN END. WILL BE CANCELING
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. HOWEVER...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS STILL PRESENT SO THE
FLOOD THREAT WILL CONTINUE PAST 00Z TONIGHT. THE OTHER FORECAST
ISSUE STEMS AROUND IF ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER OCCUR...THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. IF SHOWERS REMAIN PRESENT...THE
FOG THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL. HAVE PUT FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE A STALLED BOUNDARY
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT.
THIA ALONG WITH SOME INCREASED INSTABILITY TODAY AND A WAVE RIDING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS RESULTED IN SOME SEVERE
CONVECTION AND SOME TRAINING STORMS OVER AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN
WELL SATURATED THE PAST 48 HOURS. WITH INSTABILITY ON THE WANE
AFTER BEING WELL WORKED OVER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING...THE SEVERE CONVECTION SHOULD BE ENDING BY 00Z THIS
EVENING IF NOT BEFORE THEN. HAVE MENTIONED SOME LARGE HAIL
POTENTIAL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN THE ZFP AND HWO. HOWEVER...WITH
STORMS TRAINING OVER THE SAME AREA AND LOW CENTROID STORMS WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL LASTING INTO THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY
OVERNIGHT...THE FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE.

CURRENT MODEL TRENDS HEADING INTO TONIGHT SUGGEST THE LAST OF THE
HEAVY RAIN SHIFTING NORTHEAST PAST THE AREA WILL OCCUR BY 06Z AS
THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHIFTS PAST THE AREA AS WELL.
WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH GOING THROUGH TONIGHT AS A FEW SHOWERS
WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS AS WELL.

HEADING INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...IT APPEARS A VAGUE SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINS ALONG THE APPALACHIANS AS A SECOND SHORT WAVE
DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN UPPER GREAT LAKES. DESPITE THE
COOLER CONDITIONS AND LACK OF INSTABILITY...THE LINGERING SURFACE
BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH A ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SLIDING SOUTHEAST
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. MID DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS LOW. NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND OVERALL COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL KEEP MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL BE SPINNING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A WAVE RIDING THROUGH THE REGION.
WHILE A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL AID IN KICKING OFF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS...AS COLD CORE 500 MB CLOSED LOW WILL SLIDE
SOUTH STEEPING LAPSE RATES AND LOWERING HEIGHTS. THEREFORE RIGHT
NOW WILL KEEP WITH BETTER POPS OVERALL THROUGH THE PERIOD ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE VERTICALLY
STACKED AS CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. SPOKES OF VORTICITY
WILL WRAP AROUND THIS UPPER LOW AS IT SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST
AND THEREFORE KEEP THE REGION UNSETTLED UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOW PROGRESS EAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND WE
SHOULD SEE A DRY STRETCH AT THAT POINT. SOME RIDGE RIDING UPPER
LEVEL WAVES AND BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY LEAD TO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
STORMS IN THE FAR NORTH AND NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY AND SHOWERS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

OVERALL TEMPS WILL START OFF WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE UPPER 30S IN A FEW SPOTS THURSDAY MORNING AND ONLY
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S FOR THURSDAY. HOWEVER SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND RISING HEIGHTS WILL LEAD TO RISING TEMPS INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN OVER THIS AREA THIS
MORNING BEFORE BECOMING MAINLY VFR BY MIDDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
INTERACT WITH A SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH TO BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD
BRING SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VISBYS. AS THE SYSTEM/FRONT
DEPART TONIGHT...LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
WITH MVFR BECOMING DOMINANT OVERNIGHT. SOME IFR CIGS MAY BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AS CIGS CONTINUE TO LOWER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR KYZ080-084>088-104-
106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...KAS





000
FXUS63 KJKL 022056
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
456 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 456 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

SURFACE ANALYSIS AS OF 21Z FEATURES A PERSISTENT STALLED BOUNDARY
ALONG THE APPALACHIAN RANGE. WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS AND STORMS
MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING...MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY HAS BEEN TAPPED LEAVING
TRAILING STRATIFORM ACTIVITY OVER THE REST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.
WHILE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING...THE
BULK OF THE SEVERE ACTIVITY HAS COME TO AN END. WILL BE CANCELING
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. HOWEVER...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS STILL PRESENT SO THE
FLOOD THREAT WILL CONTINUE PAST 00Z TONIGHT. THE OTHER FORECAST
ISSUE STEMS AROUND IF ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER OCCUR...THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. IF SHOWERS REMAIN PRESENT...THE
FOG THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL. HAVE PUT FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE A STALLED BOUNDARY
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT.
THIA ALONG WITH SOME INCREASED INSTABILITY TODAY AND A WAVE RIDING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS RESULTED IN SOME SEVERE
CONVECTION AND SOME TRAINING STORMS OVER AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN
WELL SATURATED THE PAST 48 HOURS. WITH INSTABILITY ON THE WANE
AFTER BEING WELL WORKED OVER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING...THE SEVERE CONVECTION SHOULD BE ENDING BY 00Z THIS
EVENING IF NOT BEFORE THEN. HAVE MENTIONED SOME LARGE HAIL
POTENTIAL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN THE ZFP AND HWO. HOWEVER...WITH
STORMS TRAINING OVER THE SAME AREA AND LOW CENTROID STORMS WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL LASTING INTO THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY
OVERNIGHT...THE FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE.

CURRENT MODEL TRENDS HEADING INTO TONIGHT SUGGEST THE LAST OF THE
HEAVY RAIN SHIFTING NORTHEAST PAST THE AREA WILL OCCUR BY 06Z AS
THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHIFTS PAST THE AREA AS WELL.
WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH GOING THROUGH TONIGHT AS A FEW SHOWERS
WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS AS WELL.

HEADING INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...IT APPEARS A VAGUE SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINS ALONG THE APPALACHIANS AS A SECOND SHORT WAVE
DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN UPPER GREAT LAKES. DESPITE THE
COOLER CONDITIONS AND LACK OF INSTABILITY...THE LINGERING SURFACE
BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH A ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SLIDING SOUTHEAST
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. MID DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS LOW. NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND OVERALL COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL KEEP MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL BE SPINNING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A WAVE RIDING THROUGH THE REGION.
WHILE A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL AID IN KICKING OFF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS...AS COLD CORE 500 MB CLOSED LOW WILL SLIDE
SOUTH STEEPING LAPSE RATES AND LOWERING HEIGHTS. THEREFORE RIGHT
NOW WILL KEEP WITH BETTER POPS OVERALL THROUGH THE PERIOD ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE VERTICALLY
STACKED AS CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. SPOKES OF VORTICITY
WILL WRAP AROUND THIS UPPER LOW AS IT SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST
AND THEREFORE KEEP THE REGION UNSETTLED UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOW PROGRESS EAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND WE
SHOULD SEE A DRY STRETCH AT THAT POINT. SOME RIDGE RIDING UPPER
LEVEL WAVES AND BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY LEAD TO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
STORMS IN THE FAR NORTH AND NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY AND SHOWERS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

OVERALL TEMPS WILL START OFF WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE UPPER 30S IN A FEW SPOTS THURSDAY MORNING AND ONLY
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S FOR THURSDAY. HOWEVER SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND RISING HEIGHTS WILL LEAD TO RISING TEMPS INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN OVER THIS AREA THIS
MORNING BEFORE BECOMING MAINLY VFR BY MIDDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
INTERACT WITH A SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH TO BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD
BRING SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VISBYS. AS THE SYSTEM/FRONT
DEPART TONIGHT...LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
WITH MVFR BECOMING DOMINANT OVERNIGHT. SOME IFR CIGS MAY BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AS CIGS CONTINUE TO LOWER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR KYZ080-084>088-104-
106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...KAS





000
FXUS63 KJKL 022007
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
407 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE A STALLED BOUNDARY
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT.
THIA ALONG WITH SOME INCREASED INSTABILITY TODAY AND A WAVE RIDING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS RESULTED IN SOME SEVERE
CONVECTION AND SOME TRAINING STORMS OVER AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN
WELL SATURATED THE PAST 48 HOURS. WITH INSTABILITY ON THE WANE
AFTER BEING WELL WORKED OVER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING...THE SEVERE CONVECTION SHOULD BE ENDING BY 00Z THIS
EVENING IF NOT BEFORE THEN. HAVE MENTIONED SOME LARGE HAIL
POTENTIAL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN THE ZFP AND HWO. HOWEVER...WITH
STORMS TRAINING OVER THE SAME AREA AND LOW CENTROID STORMS WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL LASTING INTO THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY
OVERNIGHT...THE FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE.

CURRENT MODEL TRENDS HEADING INTO TONIGHT SUGGEST THE LAST OF THE
HEAVY RAIN SHIFTING NORTHEAST PAST THE AREA WILL OCCUR BY 06Z AS
THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHIFTS PAST THE AREA AS WELL.
WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH GOING THROUGH TONIGHT AS A FEW SHOWERS
WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS AS WELL.

HEADING INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...IT APPEARS A VAGUE SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINS ALONG THE APPALACHIANS AS A SECOND SHORT WAVE
DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN UPPER GREAT LAKES. DESPITE THE
COOLER CONDITIONS AND LACK OF INSTABILITY...THE LINGERING SURFACE
BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH A ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SLIDING SOUTHEAST
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. MID DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS LOW. NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND OVERALL COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL KEEP MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL BE SPINNING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A WAVE RIDING THROUGH THE REGION.
WHILE A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL AID IN KICKING OFF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS...AS COLD CORE 500 MB CLOSED LOW WILL SLIDE
SOUTH STEEPING LAPSE RATES AND LOWERING HEIGHTS. THEREFORE RIGHT
NOW WILL KEEP WITH BETTER POPS OVERALL THROUGH THE PERIOD ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE VERTICALLY
STACKED AS CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. SPOKES OF VORTICITY
WILL WRAP AROUND THIS UPPER LOW AS IT SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST
AND THEREFORE KEEP THE REGION UNSETTLED UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOW PROGRESS EAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND WE
SHOULD SEE A DRY STRETCH AT THAT POINT. SOME RIDGE RIDING UPPER
LEVEL WAVES AND BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY LEAD TO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
STORMS IN THE FAR NORTH AND NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY AND SHOWERS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

OVERALL TEMPS WILL START OFF WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE UPPER 30S IN A FEW SPOTS THURSDAY MORNING AND ONLY
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S FOR THURSDAY. HOWEVER SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND RISING HEIGHTS WILL LEAD TO RISING TEMPS INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN OVER THIS AREA THIS
MORNING BEFORE BECOMING MAINLY VFR BY MIDDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
INTERACT WITH A SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH TO BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD
BRING SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VISBYS. AS THE SYSTEM/FRONT
DEPART TONIGHT...LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
WITH MVFR BECOMING DOMINANT OVERNIGHT. SOME IFR CIGS MAY BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AS CIGS CONTINUE TO LOWER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR KYZ080-084>088-104-
106>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...KAS





000
FXUS63 KJKL 022007
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
407 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE A STALLED BOUNDARY
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT.
THIA ALONG WITH SOME INCREASED INSTABILITY TODAY AND A WAVE RIDING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS RESULTED IN SOME SEVERE
CONVECTION AND SOME TRAINING STORMS OVER AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN
WELL SATURATED THE PAST 48 HOURS. WITH INSTABILITY ON THE WANE
AFTER BEING WELL WORKED OVER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING...THE SEVERE CONVECTION SHOULD BE ENDING BY 00Z THIS
EVENING IF NOT BEFORE THEN. HAVE MENTIONED SOME LARGE HAIL
POTENTIAL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN THE ZFP AND HWO. HOWEVER...WITH
STORMS TRAINING OVER THE SAME AREA AND LOW CENTROID STORMS WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL LASTING INTO THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY
OVERNIGHT...THE FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE.

CURRENT MODEL TRENDS HEADING INTO TONIGHT SUGGEST THE LAST OF THE
HEAVY RAIN SHIFTING NORTHEAST PAST THE AREA WILL OCCUR BY 06Z AS
THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHIFTS PAST THE AREA AS WELL.
WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH GOING THROUGH TONIGHT AS A FEW SHOWERS
WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS AS WELL.

HEADING INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...IT APPEARS A VAGUE SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINS ALONG THE APPALACHIANS AS A SECOND SHORT WAVE
DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN UPPER GREAT LAKES. DESPITE THE
COOLER CONDITIONS AND LACK OF INSTABILITY...THE LINGERING SURFACE
BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH A ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SLIDING SOUTHEAST
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. MID DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS LOW. NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND OVERALL COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL KEEP MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL BE SPINNING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A WAVE RIDING THROUGH THE REGION.
WHILE A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL AID IN KICKING OFF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS...AS COLD CORE 500 MB CLOSED LOW WILL SLIDE
SOUTH STEEPING LAPSE RATES AND LOWERING HEIGHTS. THEREFORE RIGHT
NOW WILL KEEP WITH BETTER POPS OVERALL THROUGH THE PERIOD ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE VERTICALLY
STACKED AS CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. SPOKES OF VORTICITY
WILL WRAP AROUND THIS UPPER LOW AS IT SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST
AND THEREFORE KEEP THE REGION UNSETTLED UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOW PROGRESS EAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND WE
SHOULD SEE A DRY STRETCH AT THAT POINT. SOME RIDGE RIDING UPPER
LEVEL WAVES AND BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY LEAD TO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
STORMS IN THE FAR NORTH AND NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY AND SHOWERS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

OVERALL TEMPS WILL START OFF WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE UPPER 30S IN A FEW SPOTS THURSDAY MORNING AND ONLY
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S FOR THURSDAY. HOWEVER SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND RISING HEIGHTS WILL LEAD TO RISING TEMPS INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN OVER THIS AREA THIS
MORNING BEFORE BECOMING MAINLY VFR BY MIDDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
INTERACT WITH A SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH TO BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD
BRING SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VISBYS. AS THE SYSTEM/FRONT
DEPART TONIGHT...LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
WITH MVFR BECOMING DOMINANT OVERNIGHT. SOME IFR CIGS MAY BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AS CIGS CONTINUE TO LOWER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR KYZ080-084>088-104-
106>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...KAS





000
FXUS63 KJKL 021943
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
343 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE A STALLED BOUNDARY
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT.
THIA ALONG WITH SOME INCREASED INSTABILITY TODAY AND A WAVE RIDING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS RESULTED IN SOME SEVERE
CONVECTION AND SOME TRAINING STORMS OVER AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN
WELL SATURATED THE PAST 48 HOURS. WITH INSTABILITY ON THE WANE
AFTER BEING WELL WORKED OVER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING...THE SEVERE CONVECTION SHOULD BE ENDING BY 00Z THIS
EVENING IF NOT BEFORE THEN. HAVE MENTIONED SOME LARGE HAIL
POTENTIAL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN THE ZFP AND HWO. HOWEVER...WITH
STORMS TRAINING OVER THE SAME AREA AND LOW CENTROID STORMS WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL LASTING INTO THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY
OVERNIGHT...THE FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE.

CURRENT MODEL TRENDS HEADING INTO TONIGHT SUGGEST THE LAST OF THE
HEAVY RAIN SHIFTING NORTHEAST PAST THE AREA WILL OCCUR BY 06Z AS
THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHIFTS PAST THE AREA AS WELL.
WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH GOING THROUGH TONIGHT AS A FEW SHOWERS
WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS AS WELL.

HEADING INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...IT APPEARS A VAGUE SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINS ALONG THE APPALACHIANS AS A SECOND SHORT WAVE
DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN UPPER GREAT LAKES. DESPITE THE
COOLER CONDITIONS AND LACK OF INSTABILITY...THE LINGERING SURFACE
BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH A ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SLIDING SOUTHEAST
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. MID DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS LOW. NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND OVERALL COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL KEEP MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 614 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

THE PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY A BURST OF VERY COOL AIR EARLY
ON...AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHWARD
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN
EVENT ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
UNDERNEATH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS. DESPITE MEAGER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR...DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT AND THE STRENGTH
OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. IF SHOWERS LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS THE
MODELS SUGGEST...THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME SNOW AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS NEAR THE VA BORDER.

THE UPPER LOW SHOULD BE PULLING AWAY TO THE EAST BY FRIDAY...AND
RIDGING/HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AT ALL LEVELS.
THIS WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND LASTING INTO THE
WEEKEND. BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...THE HIGH/RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
GET SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD SEND
A COLD FRONT SOUTH TO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE PREVIOUS 12Z RUN OF
THE ECMWF GENERATED LIGHT PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT IN OUR
AREA SUNDAY...WHILE THE LATEST 00Z BACKED OFF. DID ALLOW A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER...IF
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE DRY...THIS COULD END UP REMOVED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN OVER THIS AREA THIS
MORNING BEFORE BECOMING MAINLY VFR BY MIDDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
INTERACT WITH A SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH TO BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD
BRING SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VISBYS. AS THE SYSTEM/FRONT
DEPART TONIGHT...LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
WITH MVFR BECOMING DOMINANT OVERNIGHT. SOME IFR CIGS MAY BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AS CIGS CONTINUE TO LOWER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR KYZ080-084>088-104-
106>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...KAS





000
FXUS63 KJKL 021943
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
343 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE A STALLED BOUNDARY
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT.
THIA ALONG WITH SOME INCREASED INSTABILITY TODAY AND A WAVE RIDING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS RESULTED IN SOME SEVERE
CONVECTION AND SOME TRAINING STORMS OVER AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN
WELL SATURATED THE PAST 48 HOURS. WITH INSTABILITY ON THE WANE
AFTER BEING WELL WORKED OVER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING...THE SEVERE CONVECTION SHOULD BE ENDING BY 00Z THIS
EVENING IF NOT BEFORE THEN. HAVE MENTIONED SOME LARGE HAIL
POTENTIAL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN THE ZFP AND HWO. HOWEVER...WITH
STORMS TRAINING OVER THE SAME AREA AND LOW CENTROID STORMS WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL LASTING INTO THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY
OVERNIGHT...THE FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE.

CURRENT MODEL TRENDS HEADING INTO TONIGHT SUGGEST THE LAST OF THE
HEAVY RAIN SHIFTING NORTHEAST PAST THE AREA WILL OCCUR BY 06Z AS
THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHIFTS PAST THE AREA AS WELL.
WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH GOING THROUGH TONIGHT AS A FEW SHOWERS
WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS AS WELL.

HEADING INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...IT APPEARS A VAGUE SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINS ALONG THE APPALACHIANS AS A SECOND SHORT WAVE
DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN UPPER GREAT LAKES. DESPITE THE
COOLER CONDITIONS AND LACK OF INSTABILITY...THE LINGERING SURFACE
BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH A ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SLIDING SOUTHEAST
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. MID DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS LOW. NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND OVERALL COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL KEEP MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 614 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

THE PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY A BURST OF VERY COOL AIR EARLY
ON...AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHWARD
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN
EVENT ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
UNDERNEATH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS. DESPITE MEAGER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR...DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT AND THE STRENGTH
OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. IF SHOWERS LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS THE
MODELS SUGGEST...THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME SNOW AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS NEAR THE VA BORDER.

THE UPPER LOW SHOULD BE PULLING AWAY TO THE EAST BY FRIDAY...AND
RIDGING/HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AT ALL LEVELS.
THIS WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND LASTING INTO THE
WEEKEND. BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...THE HIGH/RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
GET SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD SEND
A COLD FRONT SOUTH TO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE PREVIOUS 12Z RUN OF
THE ECMWF GENERATED LIGHT PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT IN OUR
AREA SUNDAY...WHILE THE LATEST 00Z BACKED OFF. DID ALLOW A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER...IF
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE DRY...THIS COULD END UP REMOVED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN OVER THIS AREA THIS
MORNING BEFORE BECOMING MAINLY VFR BY MIDDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
INTERACT WITH A SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH TO BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD
BRING SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VISBYS. AS THE SYSTEM/FRONT
DEPART TONIGHT...LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
WITH MVFR BECOMING DOMINANT OVERNIGHT. SOME IFR CIGS MAY BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AS CIGS CONTINUE TO LOWER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR KYZ080-084>088-104-
106>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...KAS





000
FXUS63 KJKL 021535
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1135 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. UPSTREAM IN TN...A WAVE IS
TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. WITH THIS...ALREADY THIS
MORNING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AND ARE
MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. EVEN INSTABILITY STRONG
ENOUGH TO DEVELOP A STRONG STORM OR TWO. THUS HAVE UPDATED TO
BRING POPS INTO THE AREA IN EARNEST AND UPDATED THE FLOOD WATCH.
AS INSTABILITY INCREASES AND DEW POINTS STILL AROUND 60...THE
CHANCE OF STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE PRESENT IN THE
AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. NEW GRIDS HAVE BEEN
SENT AND A NEW ZFP HAS BEEN SENT OUT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP SOME IN THE PAST FEW HOURS AND WITH THIS
INCREASE NOW WE ARE STARTING TO SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA. ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BE VERY MOIST. ALSO
NOTING AN UPTICK IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM OVER ARKANSAS
AND MISSISSIPPI. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST
INTO KENTUCKY BY MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON. HI-RES MODELS SEEM TO
BE HANDLING THE CURRENT ACTIVITY VERY POORLY...SO OUTSIDE OF
CURRENT TRENDS...NOT MUCH TO KEY OFF OF AT THE MOMENT.
CLEARLY...THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT COMBINED WITH THE SHOWERS/STORMS
MOVING IN WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME DECENT RAINFALL POTENTIAL INTO
THIS AFTERNOON. 1 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE HAS COME UP JUST A
TOUCH TO AROUND 1 INCH FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...WITH THE 3
HOUR ALSO COMING UP A TOUCH TO AROUND 1.50 INCHES. CLEARLY WITH
ANY CONVECTION...THESE AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE HARD TO OBTAIN...SO
FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS VERY VIABLE. NOT MANY CHANGES THIS
MORNING...EXCEPT TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND BRING IN SOME SMALL
POPS A BIT EARLIER TO ACCOUNT FOR SHOWERS DEVELOPING PRESENTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

FINALLY A LULL IN THE ACTION EARLY THIS MORNING AS MOST OF THE
CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT
REMAINS JUST OFF TO OUR WEST ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS
MORNING...WITH PLENTY OF SURFACE MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTERACT WITH THE APPROACHING FROM
FROM THE WEST TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS.
UNFORTUNATELY...THIS IS NOT GOOD NEWS AS FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
REMAINS VERY LOW. THE ONE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS 0.75-1.00
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WHILE THE 3 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS
BETWEEN 1.00 AND 1.50. WITH THE GFS RUN SHOWING OVER 1.50 INCHES
OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON...THIS IS VERY CONCERNING. SO MUCH
SO...THAT WE HAVE ISSUED A NEW FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF
SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT. PW
VALUES ARE NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS THE PAST 24 HOURS...BUT STILL ON
THE HIGH SIDE...SUPPORTING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. LATEST 00Z ARW AND
NMM BOTH HAVE THE SAME CORRIDOR THAT GOT HIT HARD LAST NIGHT
GETTING HIT AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...SO THIS CERTAINLY BEARS
WATCHING FOR THOSE IN EASTERN KENTUCKY. WITH THE FRONT VIRTUALLY
STALLED...THE SETUP FOR TRAINING STORMS IS CERTAINLY THERE...WHICH
COULD AID IN THE FLASH FLOOD CONCERN. WHILE MANY MODELS HAVE
ANOTHER LULL TONIGHT...THE NAM...WITH SOME WEAK SUPPORT FROM THE
HI-RES SHORT TERM MODELS SUPPORT SOME SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY
LINGERING IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. FOR
THIS REASON...KEPT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING THROUGH 15Z
TUESDAY. ONE LAST THING TO CONSIDER TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW STRONG STORMS AS MLCAPES APPROACH 1000J/KG IN THE SOUTHEAST
WITH MODEST SHEAR IN PLACE. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS FROM A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS. WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE FLOODING/STORM THREAT IN THE HWO AND FLASH FLOOD
WATCH.

BY TUESDAY...WE ARE KIND OF BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SYSTEM AND ONE
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A BIT MORE
INSTABILITY TODAY...AND WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS THE WAVE DIPS IN FROM
THE NORTH. FORTUNATELY...WHATEVER HAPPENS ON TUESDAY SHOULD NOT BE
AS WIDESPREAD AND HOPEFULLY CAN AVOID THE AREAS IMPACTED BY THE
RECENT FLOODING. HIGHS ON TUESDAY SHOULD TAKE A STEP BACK AS
COOLER AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM/COLD FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 614 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

THE PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY A BURST OF VERY COOL AIR EARLY
ON...AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHWARD
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN
EVENT ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
UNDERNEATH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS. DESPITE MEAGER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR...DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT AND THE STRENGTH
OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. IF SHOWERS LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS THE
MODELS SUGGEST...THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME SNOW AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS NEAR THE VA BORDER.

THE UPPER LOW SHOULD BE PULLING AWAY TO THE EAST BY FRIDAY...AND
RIDGING/HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AT ALL LEVELS.
THIS WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND LASTING INTO THE
WEEKEND. BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...THE HIGH/RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
GET SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD SEND
A COLD FRONT SOUTH TO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE PREVIOUS 12Z RUN OF
THE ECMWF GENERATED LIGHT PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT IN OUR
AREA SUNDAY...WHILE THE LATEST 00Z BACKED OFF. DID ALLOW A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER...IF
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE DRY...THIS COULD END UP REMOVED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN OVER THIS AREA THIS
MORNING BEFORE BECOMING MAINLY VFR BY MIDDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
INTERACT WITH A SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH TO BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD
BRING SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VISBYS. AS THE SYSTEM/FRONT
DEPART TONIGHT...LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
WITH MVFR BECOMING DOMINANT OVERNIGHT. SOME IFR CIGS MAY BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AS CIGS CONTINUE TO LOWER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR KYZ080-084>088-104-
106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...KAS





000
FXUS63 KJKL 021055
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
655 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP SOME IN THE PAST FEW HOURS AND WITH THIS
INCREASE NOW WE ARE STARTING TO SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA. ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BE VERY MOIST. ALSO
NOTING AN UPTICK IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM OVER ARKANSAS
AND MISSISSIPPI. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST
INTO KENTUCKY BY MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON. HI-RES MODELS SEEM TO
BE HANDLING THE CURRENT ACTIVITY VERY POORLY...SO OUTSIDE OF
CURRENT TRENDS...NOT MUCH TO KEY OFF OF AT THE MOMENT.
CLEARLY...THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT COMBINED WITH THE SHOWERS/STORMS
MOVING IN WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME DECENT RAINFALL POTENTIAL INTO
THIS AFTERNOON. 1 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE HAS COME UP JUST A
TOUCH TO AROUND 1 INCH FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...WITH THE 3
HOUR ALSO COMING UP A TOUCH TO AROUND 1.50 INCHES. CLEARLY WITH
ANY CONVECTION...THESE AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE HARD TO OBTAIN...SO
FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS VERY VIABLE. NOT MANY CHANGES THIS
MORNING...EXCEPT TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND BRING IN SOME SMALL
POPS A BIT EARLIER TO ACCOUNT FOR SHOWERS DEVELOPING PRESENTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

FINALLY A LULL IN THE ACTION EARLY THIS MORNING AS MOST OF THE
CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT
REMAINS JUST OFF TO OUR WEST ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS
MORNING...WITH PLENTY OF SURFACE MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTERACT WITH THE APPROACHING FROM
FROM THE WEST TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS.
UNFORTUNATELY...THIS IS NOT GOOD NEWS AS FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
REMAINS VERY LOW. THE ONE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS 0.75-1.00
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WHILE THE 3 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS
BETWEEN 1.00 AND 1.50. WITH THE GFS RUN SHOWING OVER 1.50 INCHES
OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON...THIS IS VERY CONCERNING. SO MUCH
SO...THAT WE HAVE ISSUED A NEW FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF
SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT. PW
VALUES ARE NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS THE PAST 24 HOURS...BUT STILL ON
THE HIGH SIDE...SUPPORTING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. LATEST 00Z ARW AND
NMM BOTH HAVE THE SAME CORRIDOR THAT GOT HIT HARD LAST NIGHT
GETTING HIT AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...SO THIS CERTAINLY BEARS
WATCHING FOR THOSE IN EASTERN KENTUCKY. WITH THE FRONT VIRTUALLY
STALLED...THE SETUP FOR TRAINING STORMS IS CERTAINLY THERE...WHICH
COULD AID IN THE FLASH FLOOD CONCERN. WHILE MANY MODELS HAVE
ANOTHER LULL TONIGHT...THE NAM...WITH SOME WEAK SUPPORT FROM THE
HI-RES SHORT TERM MODELS SUPPORT SOME SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY
LINGERING IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. FOR
THIS REASON...KEPT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING THROUGH 15Z
TUESDAY. ONE LAST THING TO CONSIDER TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW STRONG STORMS AS MLCAPES APPROACH 1000J/KG IN THE SOUTHEAST
WITH MODEST SHEAR IN PLACE. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS FROM A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS. WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE FLOODING/STORM THREAT IN THE HWO AND FLASH FLOOD
WATCH.

BY TUESDAY...WE ARE KIND OF BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SYSTEM AND ONE
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A BIT MORE
INSTABILITY TODAY...AND WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS THE WAVE DIPS IN FROM
THE NORTH. FORTUNATELY...WHATEVER HAPPENS ON TUESDAY SHOULD NOT BE
AS WIDESPREAD AND HOPEFULLY CAN AVOID THE AREAS IMPACTED BY THE
RECENT FLOODING. HIGHS ON TUESDAY SHOULD TAKE A STEP BACK AS
COOLER AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM/COLD FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 614 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

THE PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY A BURST OF VERY COOL AIR EARLY
ON...AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHWARD
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN
EVENT ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
UNDERNEATH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS. DESPITE MEAGER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR...DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT AND THE STRENGTH
OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. IF SHOWERS LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS THE
MODELS SUGGEST...THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME SNOW AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS NEAR THE VA BORDER.

THE UPPER LOW SHOULD BE PULLING AWAY TO THE EAST BY FRIDAY...AND
RIDGING/HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AT ALL LEVELS.
THIS WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND LASTING INTO THE
WEEKEND. BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...THE HIGH/RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
GET SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD SEND
A COLD FRONT SOUTH TO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE PREVIOUS 12Z RUN OF
THE ECMWF GENERATED LIGHT PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT IN OUR
AREA SUNDAY...WHILE THE LATEST 00Z BACKED OFF. DID ALLOW A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER...IF
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE DRY...THIS COULD END UP REMOVED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN OVER THIS AREA THIS
MORNING BEFORE BECOMING MAINLY VFR BY MIDDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
INTERACT WITH A SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH TO BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD
BRING SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VISBYS. AS THE SYSTEM/FRONT
DEPART TONIGHT...LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
WITH MVFR BECOMING DOMINANT OVERNIGHT. SOME IFR CIGS MAY BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AS CIGS CONTINUE TO LOWER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR KYZ080-084>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...KAS





000
FXUS63 KJKL 021014
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
614 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

FINALLY A LULL IN THE ACTION EARLY THIS MORNING AS MOST OF THE
CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT
REMAINS JUST OFF TO OUR WEST ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS
MORNING...WITH PLENTY OF SURFACE MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTERACT WITH THE APPROACHING FROM
FROM THE WEST TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS.
UNFORTUNATELY...THIS IS NOT GOOD NEWS AS FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
REMAINS VERY LOW. THE ONE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS 0.75-1.00
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WHILE THE 3 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS
BETWEEN 1.00 AND 1.50. WITH THE GFS RUN SHOWING OVER 1.50 INCHES
OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON...THIS IS VERY CONCERNING. SO MUCH
SO...THAT WE HAVE ISSUED A NEW FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF
SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT. PW
VALUES ARE NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS THE PAST 24 HOURS...BUT STILL ON
THE HIGH SIDE...SUPPORTING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. LATEST 00Z ARW AND
NMM BOTH HAVE THE SAME CORRIDOR THAT GOT HIT HARD LAST NIGHT
GETTING HIT AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...SO THIS CERTAINLY BEARS
WATCHING FOR THOSE IN EASTERN KENTUCKY. WITH THE FRONT VIRTUALLY
STALLED...THE SETUP FOR TRAINING STORMS IS CERTAINLY THERE...WHICH
COULD AID IN THE FLASH FLOOD CONCERN. WHILE MANY MODELS HAVE
ANOTHER LULL TONIGHT...THE NAM...WITH SOME WEAK SUPPORT FROM THE
HI-RES SHORT TERM MODELS SUPPORT SOME SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY
LINGERING IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. FOR
THIS REASON...KEPT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING THROUGH 15Z
TUESDAY. ONE LAST THING TO CONSIDER TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW STRONG STORMS AS MLCAPES APPROACH 1000J/KG IN THE SOUTHEAST
WITH MODEST SHEAR IN PLACE. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS FROM A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS. WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE FLOODING/STORM THREAT IN THE HWO AND FLASH FLOOD
WATCH.

BY TUESDAY...WE ARE KIND OF BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SYSTEM AND ONE
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A BIT MORE
INSTABILITY TODAY...AND WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS THE WAVE DIPS IN FROM
THE NORTH. FORTUNATELY...WHATEVER HAPPENS ON TUESDAY SHOULD NOT BE
AS WIDESPREAD AND HOPEFULLY CAN AVOID THE AREAS IMPACTED BY THE
RECENT FLOODING. HIGHS ON TUESDAY SHOULD TAKE A STEP BACK AS
COOLER AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM/COLD FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 614 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

THE PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY A BURST OF VERY COOL AIR EARLY
ON...AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHWARD
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN
EVENT ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
UNDERNEATH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS. DESPITE MEAGER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR...DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT AND THE STRENGTH
OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. IF SHOWERS LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS THE
MODELS SUGGEST...THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME SNOW AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS NEAR THE VA BORDER.

THE UPPER LOW SHOULD BE PULLING AWAY TO THE EAST BY FRIDAY...AND
RIDGING/HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AT ALL LEVELS.
THIS WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND LASTING INTO THE
WEEKEND. BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...THE HIGH/RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
GET SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD SEND
A COLD FRONT SOUTH TO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE PREVIOUS 12Z RUN OF
THE ECMWF GENERATED LIGHT PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT IN OUR
AREA SUNDAY...WHILE THE LATEST 00Z BACKED OFF. DID ALLOW A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER...IF
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE DRY...THIS COULD END UP REMOVED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

A COLD FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A SYSTEM COMING IN FROM THE SOUTH
TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. CIGS COULD COME DOWN TO MVFR IN THE STRONGER
SHOWERS AND STORMS. AS THE FRONT PASSES TONIGHT...LOW CIGS ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP FALLING TO MVFR OVERNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY IFR
TOWARDS DAYBREAK. FOR NOW...WILL TREND LOWER WITH MVFR THROUGH 06Z
TONIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR KYZ080-084>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...KAS





000
FXUS63 KJKL 020655
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
255 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

FINALLY A LULL IN THE ACTION EARLY THIS MORNING AS MOST OF THE
CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT
REMAINS JUST OFF TO OUR WEST ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS
MORNING...WITH PLENTY OF SURFACE MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTERACT WITH THE APPROACHING FROM
FROM THE WEST TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS.
UNFORTUNATELY...THIS IS NOT GOOD NEWS AS FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
REMAINS VERY LOW. THE ONE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS 0.75-1.00
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WHILE THE 3 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS
BETWEEN 1.00 AND 1.50. WITH THE GFS RUN SHOWING OVER 1.50 INCHES
OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON...THIS IS VERY CONCERNING. SO MUCH
SO...THAT WE HAVE ISSUED A NEW FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF
SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT. PW
VALUES ARE NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS THE PAST 24 HOURS...BUT STILL ON
THE HIGH SIDE...SUPPORTING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. LATEST 00Z ARW AND
NMM BOTH HAVE THE SAME CORRIDOR THAT GOT HIT HARD LAST NIGHT
GETTING HIT AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...SO THIS CERTAINLY BEARS
WATCHING FOR THOSE IN EASTERN KENTUCKY. WITH THE FRONT VIRTUALLY
STALLED...THE SETUP FOR TRAINING STORMS IS CERTAINLY THERE...WHICH
COULD AID IN THE FLASH FLOOD CONCERN. WHILE MANY MODELS HAVE
ANOTHER LULL TONIGHT...THE NAM...WITH SOME WEAK SUPPORT FROM THE
HI-RES SHORT TERM MODELS SUPPORT SOME SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY
LINGERING IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. FOR
THIS REASON...KEPT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING THROUGH 15Z
TUESDAY. ONE LAST THING TO CONSIDER TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW STRONG STORMS AS MLCAPES APPROACH 1000J/KG IN THE SOUTHEAST
WITH MODEST SHEAR IN PLACE. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS FROM A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS. WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE FLOODING/STORM THREAT IN THE HWO AND FLASH FLOOD
WATCH.

BY TUESDAY...WE ARE KIND OF BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SYSTEM AND ONE
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A BIT MORE
INSTABILITY TODAY...AND WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS THE WAVE DIPS IN FROM
THE NORTH. FORTUNATELY...WHATEVER HAPPENS ON TUESDAY SHOULD NOT BE
AS WIDESPREAD AND HOPEFULLY CAN AVOID THE AREAS IMPACTED BY THE
RECENT FLOODING. HIGHS ON TUESDAY SHOULD TAKE A STEP BACK AS
COOLER AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM/COLD FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN TO BEGIN THE WEEK AND ALSO A COOL DOWN. THE
PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH SHORTWAVE RIDING INTO PORTIONS OF THE OHIO
VALLEY...SO KEPT POPS FROM SLIGHT TO CHANCE AREA WIDE. STILL LOOKS
LIKE A BREAK WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FOR YOUR WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING
LIKELY SHOWERS TO THE NORTH RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE LITTLE IF ANY
INSTABILITY SO NO THUNDER. THIS FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW
WILL LEAD TO COOLER AIR DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
LEAD TO OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR SOME. GIVEN THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST AND LOBES OF ENERGY RIDING ALONG THE
FAR EAST WILL KEEP CHANCE SHOWERS THURSDAY. WHILE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SLIDES EAST TOWARD THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC WILL KEEP SLIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FAR EAST...BUT WE DO SEE A REPRIEVE BY THE WEEKEND.
THIS AS A LONG WAVE RIDGE MOVES EAST OUT OF THE PLAINS AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ONCE THIS RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST IT WILL BRING WARM AIR ADVECTION BACK INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL SEND TEMPS BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S
BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

A COLD FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A SYSTEM COMING IN FROM THE SOUTH
TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. CIGS COULD COME DOWN TO MVFR IN THE STRONGER
SHOWERS AND STORMS. AS THE FRONT PASSES TONIGHT...LOW CIGS ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP FALLING TO MVFR OVERNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY IFR
TOWARDS DAYBREAK. FOR NOW...WILL TREND LOWER WITH MVFR THROUGH 06Z
TONIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR KYZ068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...KAS





000
FXUS63 KJKL 020655
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
255 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

FINALLY A LULL IN THE ACTION EARLY THIS MORNING AS MOST OF THE
CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT
REMAINS JUST OFF TO OUR WEST ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS
MORNING...WITH PLENTY OF SURFACE MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTERACT WITH THE APPROACHING FROM
FROM THE WEST TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS.
UNFORTUNATELY...THIS IS NOT GOOD NEWS AS FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
REMAINS VERY LOW. THE ONE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS 0.75-1.00
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WHILE THE 3 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS
BETWEEN 1.00 AND 1.50. WITH THE GFS RUN SHOWING OVER 1.50 INCHES
OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON...THIS IS VERY CONCERNING. SO MUCH
SO...THAT WE HAVE ISSUED A NEW FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF
SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT. PW
VALUES ARE NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS THE PAST 24 HOURS...BUT STILL ON
THE HIGH SIDE...SUPPORTING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. LATEST 00Z ARW AND
NMM BOTH HAVE THE SAME CORRIDOR THAT GOT HIT HARD LAST NIGHT
GETTING HIT AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...SO THIS CERTAINLY BEARS
WATCHING FOR THOSE IN EASTERN KENTUCKY. WITH THE FRONT VIRTUALLY
STALLED...THE SETUP FOR TRAINING STORMS IS CERTAINLY THERE...WHICH
COULD AID IN THE FLASH FLOOD CONCERN. WHILE MANY MODELS HAVE
ANOTHER LULL TONIGHT...THE NAM...WITH SOME WEAK SUPPORT FROM THE
HI-RES SHORT TERM MODELS SUPPORT SOME SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY
LINGERING IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. FOR
THIS REASON...KEPT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING THROUGH 15Z
TUESDAY. ONE LAST THING TO CONSIDER TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW STRONG STORMS AS MLCAPES APPROACH 1000J/KG IN THE SOUTHEAST
WITH MODEST SHEAR IN PLACE. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS FROM A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS. WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE FLOODING/STORM THREAT IN THE HWO AND FLASH FLOOD
WATCH.

BY TUESDAY...WE ARE KIND OF BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SYSTEM AND ONE
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A BIT MORE
INSTABILITY TODAY...AND WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS THE WAVE DIPS IN FROM
THE NORTH. FORTUNATELY...WHATEVER HAPPENS ON TUESDAY SHOULD NOT BE
AS WIDESPREAD AND HOPEFULLY CAN AVOID THE AREAS IMPACTED BY THE
RECENT FLOODING. HIGHS ON TUESDAY SHOULD TAKE A STEP BACK AS
COOLER AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM/COLD FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN TO BEGIN THE WEEK AND ALSO A COOL DOWN. THE
PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH SHORTWAVE RIDING INTO PORTIONS OF THE OHIO
VALLEY...SO KEPT POPS FROM SLIGHT TO CHANCE AREA WIDE. STILL LOOKS
LIKE A BREAK WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FOR YOUR WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING
LIKELY SHOWERS TO THE NORTH RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE LITTLE IF ANY
INSTABILITY SO NO THUNDER. THIS FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW
WILL LEAD TO COOLER AIR DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
LEAD TO OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR SOME. GIVEN THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST AND LOBES OF ENERGY RIDING ALONG THE
FAR EAST WILL KEEP CHANCE SHOWERS THURSDAY. WHILE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SLIDES EAST TOWARD THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC WILL KEEP SLIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FAR EAST...BUT WE DO SEE A REPRIEVE BY THE WEEKEND.
THIS AS A LONG WAVE RIDGE MOVES EAST OUT OF THE PLAINS AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ONCE THIS RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST IT WILL BRING WARM AIR ADVECTION BACK INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL SEND TEMPS BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S
BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

A COLD FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A SYSTEM COMING IN FROM THE SOUTH
TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. CIGS COULD COME DOWN TO MVFR IN THE STRONGER
SHOWERS AND STORMS. AS THE FRONT PASSES TONIGHT...LOW CIGS ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP FALLING TO MVFR OVERNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY IFR
TOWARDS DAYBREAK. FOR NOW...WILL TREND LOWER WITH MVFR THROUGH 06Z
TONIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR KYZ068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...KAS





000
FXUS63 KJKL 020405 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1205 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1205 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

LOOKS LIKE THE WEATHER HAS SETTLED DOWN AND SHOULD STAY QUIET
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO LOWER POPS...ADD SOME FOG...AND ALSO TO DROP THE
FLOOD WATCH AND CLEAN UP THE HWO. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO
THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 813 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SOME STORMS THAT HAVE
TRACKED OVER THE SAME AREA NORTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS WELL...A OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
GENERATED FROM FROM THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTH WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEAST GENERATING MORE CONVECTION OVER AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN HIT
WITHIN THE LAST 24 HOURS. SO HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO COVER THIS AS ADDITIONAL FLOODING WITH
TRAINING STORMS IS POSSIBLE.

THERE APPEARS TO BE A BREAK IN THE CONVECTION TONIGHT BEFORE THE
NEXT WAVE SHIFTS NORTHEAST UP THE OH VALLEY WITH ANOTHER WAVE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE THE FLOOD
WATCH TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH TOMORROW AND INTO MONDAY EVENING.
HAVE MENTIONED ALL THIS IN THE LATEST HWO.

ADDRESSING THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH...WHILE A FEW STRONG
STORMS REMAIN...MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY HAS BEEN TAPPED.
HOWEVER...EVIDENCE OF SOME UNTAPPED INSTABILITY IN THE SOUTH MAY
BE ENOUGH FOR FURTHER CONVECTION IN THE SOUTH WITH MORE POTENTIAL
FOR A HAIL OR WIND THREAT. WILL KEEP THE WATCH GOING FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE EAST KENTUCKY IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. SOME CLEARING CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE AREA HAS RESULTED IN SOME INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH CU
FIELDS DEVELOPING AS WELL. WITH DECENT SHEAR IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA AND A PASSING DECENT WAVE OVERHEAD...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. AMPLE INSTABILITY AND CIN FULLY
ERODED...WILL ALLOW FOR THE SEVERE THREAT TO LAST INTO THE
EVENING. HAVE PUT THIS INTO THE HWO FOR THIS EVENING AND INTO
EARLY TONIGHT WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT.

HEADING INTO TONIGHT...MUCH OF THE SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH
WITH THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY TONIGHT. HOWEVER...NUMEROUS
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF THUNDER
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. WITH A SATURATED
ATMOSPHERE...A FEW HEAVY RAINERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AND HAVE
MENTIONED THIS IN THE HWO AS WELL.

HEADING INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY...ANOTHER WAVE DIVING FURTHER
SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID MS VALLEY WILL THEN PUSH NORTHEAST UP
THROUGH THE APPALACHIAN RANGE AS ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
ANOTHER SATURATED SOUNDING THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AND INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WITH PWATS AGAIN NEAR 1.4. WITH THE AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL ALREADY FALLEN THROUGH THE PAST 48 HOURS...THERE MAY BE
MORE FLOODING ISSUES AND A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED. WITH EXITING
FORCING AND GOOD INSTABILITY DIMINISHED...CONVECTION AND LARGELY
THE FLOODING THREAT SHOULD END BY MONDAY NIGHT 06Z.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN TO BEGIN THE WEEK AND ALSO A COOL DOWN. THE
PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH SHORTWAVE RIDING INTO PORTIONS OF THE OHIO
VALLEY...SO KEPT POPS FROM SLIGHT TO CHANCE AREA WIDE. STILL LOOKS
LIKE A BREAK WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FOR YOUR WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING
LIKELY SHOWERS TO THE NORTH RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE LITTLE IF ANY
INSTABILITY SO NO THUNDER. THIS FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW
WILL LEAD TO COOLER AIR DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
LEAD TO OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR SOME. GIVEN THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST AND LOBES OF ENERGY RIDING ALONG THE
FAR EAST WILL KEEP CHANCE SHOWERS THURSDAY. WHILE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SLIDES EAST TOWARD THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC WILL KEEP SLIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FAR EAST...BUT WE DO SEE A REPRIEVE BY THE WEEKEND.
THIS AS A LONG WAVE RIDGE MOVES EAST OUT OF THE PLAINS AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ONCE THIS RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST IT WILL BRING WARM AIR ADVECTION BACK INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL SEND TEMPS BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S
BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 813 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA IS BECOMING ISOLATED AS MUCH OF THE
ACTIVITY WINDS DOWN. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH
THE EVENING BEFORE COMING TO AN END BY 06Z. THERE WILL BE A BREAK
IN THE ACTIVITY BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE BRINGS MORE ACTIVITY INTO THE
AREA AFTER 12Z. OTHERWISE...THE AREA BECOMING STABILIZED AND CALM
WINDS LATE TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO LOWER VIS AND CIGS LATE TONIGHT
BEFORE LIFTING AGAIN AFTER 12Z. SOME ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP AGAIN AS THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER





000
FXUS63 KJKL 020013
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
813 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 813 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SOME STORMS THAT HAVE
TRACKED OVER THE SAME AREA NORTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS WELL...A OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
GENERATED FROM FROM THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTH WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEAST GENERATING MORE CONVECTION OVER AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN HIT
WITHIN THE LAST 24 HOURS. SO HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO COVER THIS AS ADDITIONAL FLOODING WITH
TRAINING STORMS IS POSSIBLE.

THERE APPEARS TO BE A BREAK IN THE CONVECTION TONIGHT BEFORE THE
NEXT WAVE SHIFTS NORTHEAST UP THE OH VALLEY WITH ANOTHER WAVE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE THE FLOOD
WATCH TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH TOMORROW AND INTO MONDAY EVENING.
HAVE MENTIONED ALL THIS IN THE LATEST HWO.

ADDRESSING THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH...WHILE A FEW STRONG
STORMS REMAIN...MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY HAS BEEN TAPPED.
HOWEVER...EVIDENCE OF SOME UNTAPPED INSTABILITY IN THE SOUTH MAY
BE ENOUGH FOR FURTHER CONVECTION IN THE SOUTH WITH MORE POTENTIAL
FOR A HAIL OR WIND THREAT. WILL KEEP THE WATCH GOING FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE EAST KENTUCKY IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. SOME CLEARING CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE AREA HAS RESULTED IN SOME INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH CU
FIELDS DEVELOPING AS WELL. WITH DECENT SHEAR IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA AND A PASSING DECENT WAVE OVERHEAD...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. AMPLE INSTABILITY AND CIN FULLY
ERODED...WILL ALLOW FOR THE SEVERE THREAT TO LAST INTO THE
EVENING. HAVE PUT THIS INTO THE HWO FOR THIS EVENING AND INTO
EARLY TONIGHT WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT.

HEADING INTO TONIGHT...MUCH OF THE SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH
WITH THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY TONIGHT. HOWEVER...NUMEROUS
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF THUNDER
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. WITH A SATURATED
ATMOSPHERE...A FEW HEAVY RAINERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AND HAVE
MENTIONED THIS IN THE HWO AS WELL.

HEADING INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY...ANOTHER WAVE DIVING FURTHER
SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID MS VALLEY WILL THEN PUSH NORTHEAST UP
THROUGH THE APPALACHIAN RANGE AS ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
ANOTHER SATURATED SOUNDING THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AND INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WITH PWATS AGAIN NEAR 1.4. WITH THE AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL ALREADY FALLEN THROUGH THE PAST 48 HOURS...THERE MAY BE
MORE FLOODING ISSUES AND A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED. WITH EXITING
FORCING AND GOOD INSTABILITY DIMINISHED...CONVECTION AND LARGELY
THE FLOODING THREAT SHOULD END BY MONDAY NIGHT 06Z.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN TO BEGIN THE WEEK AND ALSO A COOL DOWN. THE
PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH SHORTWAVE RIDING INTO PORTIONS OF THE OHIO
VALLEY...SO KEPT POPS FROM SLIGHT TO CHANCE AREA WIDE. STILL LOOKS
LIKE A BREAK WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FOR YOUR WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING
LIKELY SHOWERS TO THE NORTH RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE LITTLE IF ANY
INSTABILITY SO NO THUNDER. THIS FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW
WILL LEAD TO COOLER AIR DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
LEAD TO OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR SOME. GIVEN THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST AND LOBES OF ENERGY RIDING ALONG THE
FAR EAST WILL KEEP CHANCE SHOWERS THURSDAY. WHILE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SLIDES EAST TOWARD THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC WILL KEEP SLIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FAR EAST...BUT WE DO SEE A REPRIEVE BY THE WEEKEND.
THIS AS A LONG WAVE RIDGE MOVES EAST OUT OF THE PLAINS AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ONCE THIS RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST IT WILL BRING WARM AIR ADVECTION BACK INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL SEND TEMPS BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S
BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 813 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA IS BECOMING ISOLATED AS MUCH OF THE
ACTIVITY WINDS DOWN. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH
THE EVENING BEFORE COMING TO AN END BY 06Z. THERE WILL BE A BREAK
IN THE ACTIVITY BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE BRINGS MORE ACTIVITY INTO THE
AREA AFTER 12Z. OTHERWISE...THE AREA BECOMING STABILIZED AND CALM
WINDS LATE TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO LOWER VIS AND CIGS LATE TONIGHT
BEFORE LIFTING AGAIN AFTER 12Z. SOME ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP AGAIN AS THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-069-080-086>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER





000
FXUS63 KJKL 020013
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
813 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 813 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SOME STORMS THAT HAVE
TRACKED OVER THE SAME AREA NORTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS WELL...A OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
GENERATED FROM FROM THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTH WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEAST GENERATING MORE CONVECTION OVER AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN HIT
WITHIN THE LAST 24 HOURS. SO HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO COVER THIS AS ADDITIONAL FLOODING WITH
TRAINING STORMS IS POSSIBLE.

THERE APPEARS TO BE A BREAK IN THE CONVECTION TONIGHT BEFORE THE
NEXT WAVE SHIFTS NORTHEAST UP THE OH VALLEY WITH ANOTHER WAVE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE THE FLOOD
WATCH TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH TOMORROW AND INTO MONDAY EVENING.
HAVE MENTIONED ALL THIS IN THE LATEST HWO.

ADDRESSING THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH...WHILE A FEW STRONG
STORMS REMAIN...MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY HAS BEEN TAPPED.
HOWEVER...EVIDENCE OF SOME UNTAPPED INSTABILITY IN THE SOUTH MAY
BE ENOUGH FOR FURTHER CONVECTION IN THE SOUTH WITH MORE POTENTIAL
FOR A HAIL OR WIND THREAT. WILL KEEP THE WATCH GOING FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE EAST KENTUCKY IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. SOME CLEARING CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE AREA HAS RESULTED IN SOME INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH CU
FIELDS DEVELOPING AS WELL. WITH DECENT SHEAR IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA AND A PASSING DECENT WAVE OVERHEAD...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. AMPLE INSTABILITY AND CIN FULLY
ERODED...WILL ALLOW FOR THE SEVERE THREAT TO LAST INTO THE
EVENING. HAVE PUT THIS INTO THE HWO FOR THIS EVENING AND INTO
EARLY TONIGHT WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT.

HEADING INTO TONIGHT...MUCH OF THE SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH
WITH THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY TONIGHT. HOWEVER...NUMEROUS
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF THUNDER
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. WITH A SATURATED
ATMOSPHERE...A FEW HEAVY RAINERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AND HAVE
MENTIONED THIS IN THE HWO AS WELL.

HEADING INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY...ANOTHER WAVE DIVING FURTHER
SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID MS VALLEY WILL THEN PUSH NORTHEAST UP
THROUGH THE APPALACHIAN RANGE AS ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
ANOTHER SATURATED SOUNDING THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AND INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WITH PWATS AGAIN NEAR 1.4. WITH THE AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL ALREADY FALLEN THROUGH THE PAST 48 HOURS...THERE MAY BE
MORE FLOODING ISSUES AND A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED. WITH EXITING
FORCING AND GOOD INSTABILITY DIMINISHED...CONVECTION AND LARGELY
THE FLOODING THREAT SHOULD END BY MONDAY NIGHT 06Z.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN TO BEGIN THE WEEK AND ALSO A COOL DOWN. THE
PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH SHORTWAVE RIDING INTO PORTIONS OF THE OHIO
VALLEY...SO KEPT POPS FROM SLIGHT TO CHANCE AREA WIDE. STILL LOOKS
LIKE A BREAK WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FOR YOUR WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING
LIKELY SHOWERS TO THE NORTH RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE LITTLE IF ANY
INSTABILITY SO NO THUNDER. THIS FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW
WILL LEAD TO COOLER AIR DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
LEAD TO OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR SOME. GIVEN THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST AND LOBES OF ENERGY RIDING ALONG THE
FAR EAST WILL KEEP CHANCE SHOWERS THURSDAY. WHILE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SLIDES EAST TOWARD THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC WILL KEEP SLIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FAR EAST...BUT WE DO SEE A REPRIEVE BY THE WEEKEND.
THIS AS A LONG WAVE RIDGE MOVES EAST OUT OF THE PLAINS AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ONCE THIS RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST IT WILL BRING WARM AIR ADVECTION BACK INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL SEND TEMPS BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S
BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 813 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA IS BECOMING ISOLATED AS MUCH OF THE
ACTIVITY WINDS DOWN. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH
THE EVENING BEFORE COMING TO AN END BY 06Z. THERE WILL BE A BREAK
IN THE ACTIVITY BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE BRINGS MORE ACTIVITY INTO THE
AREA AFTER 12Z. OTHERWISE...THE AREA BECOMING STABILIZED AND CALM
WINDS LATE TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO LOWER VIS AND CIGS LATE TONIGHT
BEFORE LIFTING AGAIN AFTER 12Z. SOME ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP AGAIN AS THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-069-080-086>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER





000
FXUS63 KJKL 011957
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
357 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE EAST KENTUCKY IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. SOME CLEARING CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE AREA HAS RESULTED IN SOME INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH CU
FIELDS DEVELOPING AS WELL. WITH DECENT SHEAR IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA AND A PASSING DECENT WAVE OVERHEAD...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. AMPLE INSTABILITY AND CIN FULLY
ERODED...WILL ALLOW FOR THE SEVERE THREAT TO LAST INTO THE
EVENING. HAVE PUT THIS INTO THE HWO FOR THIS EVENING AND INTO
EARLY TONIGHT WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT.

HEADING INTO TONIGHT...MUCH OF THE SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH
WITH THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY TONIGHT. HOWEVER...NUMEROUS
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF THUNDER
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. WITH A SATURATED
ATMOSPHERE...A FEW HEAVY RAINERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AND HAVE
MENTIONED THIS IN THE HWO AS WELL.

HEADING INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY...ANOTHER WAVE DIVING FURTHER
SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID MS VALLEY WILL THEN PUSH NORTHEAST UP
THROUGH THE APPALACHIAN RANGE AS ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
ANOTHER SATURATED SOUNDING THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AND INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WITH PWATS AGAIN NEAR 1.4. WITH THE AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL ALREADY FALLEN THROUGH THE PAST 48 HOURS...THERE MAY BE
MORE FLOODING ISSUES AND A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED. WITH EXITING
FORCING AND GOOD INSTABILITY DIMINISHED...CONVECTION AND LARGELY
THE FLOODING THREAT SHOULD END BY MONDAY NIGHT 06Z.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN TO BEGIN THE WEEK AND ALSO A COOL DOWN. THE
PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH SHORTWAVE RIDING INTO PORTIONS OF THE OHIO
VALLEY...SO KEPT POPS FROM SLIGHT TO CHANCE AREA WIDE. STILL LOOKS
LIKE A BREAK WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FOR YOUR WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING
LIKELY SHOWERS TO THE NORTH RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE LITTLE IF ANY
INSTABILITY SO NO THUNDER. THIS FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW
WILL LEAD TO COOLER AIR DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
LEAD TO OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR SOME. GIVEN THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST AND LOBES OF ENERGY RIDING ALONG THE
FAR EAST WILL KEEP CHANCE SHOWERS THURSDAY. WHILE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SLIDES EAST TOWARD THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC WILL KEEP SLIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FAR EAST...BUT WE DO SEE A REPRIEVE BY THE WEEKEND.
THIS AS A LONG WAVE RIDGE MOVES EAST OUT OF THE PLAINS AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ONCE THIS RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST IT WILL BRING WARM AIR ADVECTION BACK INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL SEND TEMPS BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S
BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CLEARED OUT OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A FEW MVFR CIGS LEFTOVER FROM LINGERING LOW LEVEL
CLOUD CLOVER. MUCH OF THE AREA IS BREAKING OUT INTO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO THE AREA. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE IN
VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME ISOLATED LOW CIGS AND VIS WITH THE
SCATTERED STORMS. WITH A MOIST AREA HEADING INTO TONIGHT...SOME
FOG AND LOW CIGS WILL DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS TONIGHT WITH MOST TAF
SITES GOING DOWN TO IFR AND BELOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER





000
FXUS63 KJKL 011954
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
354 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE EAST KENTUCKY IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. SOME CLEARING CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE AREA HAS RESULTED IN SOME INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH CU
FIELDS DEVELOPING AS WELL. WITH DECENT SHEAR IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA AND A PASSING DECENT WAVE OVERHEAD...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. AMPLE INSTABILITY AND CIN FULLY
ERODED...WILL ALLOW FOR THE SEVERE THREAT TO LAST INTO THE
EVENING. HAVE PUT THIS INTO THE HWO FOR THIS EVENING AND INTO
EARLY TONIGHT WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT.

HEADING INTO TONIGHT...MUCH OF THE SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH
WITH THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY TONIGHT. HOWEVER...NUMEROUS
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF THUNDER
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. WITH A SATURATED
ATMOSPHERE...A FEW HEAVY RAINERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AND HAVE
MENTIONED THIS IN THE HWO AS WELL.

HEADING INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY...ANOTHER WAVE DIVING FURTHER
SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID MS VALLEY WILL THEN PUSH NORTHEAST UP
THROUGH THE APPALACHIAN RANGE AS ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
ANOTHER SATURATED SOUNDING THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AND INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WITH PWATS AGAIN NEAR 1.4. WITH THE AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL ALREADY FALLEN THROUGH THE PAST 48 HOURS...THERE MAY BE
MORE FLOODING ISSUES AND A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED. WITH EXITING
FORCING AND GOOD INSTABILITY DIMINISHED...CONVECTION AND LARGELY
THE FLOODING THREAT SHOULD END BY MONDAY NIGHT 06Z.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

A DRASTIC PATTERN CHANGE WILL TAKE EFFECT OVER THE REGION AS WE
HEAD THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH MUCH COOLER WEATHER
ANTICIPATED HEADING THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF MAY. THE PERIOD WILL
START AS MOISTURE FROM A SHORTWAVE LEADS TO SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. BEST POPS WILL BE IN SOUTHEASTERN
KENTUCKY...TRAILING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW
MUCH RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY LINGERS INTO TUESDAY AS MODELS KEEP IT
FAIRLY UNSETTLED THROUGH THE DAY WITH ANOTHER WEAK WAVE DROPPING
IN FROM THE NORTH. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS THROUGH
TUESDAY. A POSSIBLE BREAK FROM SHOWERS WILL BE SEEN TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...OUR NEXT POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
DROP SOUTH LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PRODUCING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR RAIN...ALONG WITH USHERING IN MUCH COOLER WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY MAY HOLD IN THE 50S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
INTO FRIDAY INTO THE LOW 40S. WE MAY STAY IN THE 50S YET AGAIN ON
FRIDAY...BEFORE WE START TO MODERATE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL SETUP
UP SEVERAL WAVES DROPPING SOUTH ALONG WITH UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CLEARED OUT OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A FEW MVFR CIGS LEFTOVER FROM LINGERING LOW LEVEL
CLOUD CLOVER. MUCH OF THE AREA IS BREAKING OUT INTO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO THE AREA. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE IN
VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME ISOLATED LOW CIGS AND VIS WITH THE
SCATTERED STORMS. WITH A MOIST AREA HEADING INTO TONIGHT...SOME
FOG AND LOW CIGS WILL DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS TONIGHT WITH MOST TAF
SITES GOING DOWN TO IFR AND BELOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER





000
FXUS63 KJKL 011733
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
133 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1144 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

ISSUED AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING TO REMOVE MORNING
POPS THROUGH NOON. ANTICIPATING AFTERNOON CONVECTION AS SKIES
CLEAR AND INSTABILITY INCREASES. HAVE INCREASED POPS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPENDING CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGHS GETTING INTO THE MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON SEEM LIKELY WITH THE
DISSIPATING CLOUD COVER AS WELL. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS AND SENT
OUT A NEW ZFP.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 806 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

UPDATED NEAR TERM POP BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...JUST BLENDED OBS INTO THE FORECAST.|

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 454 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MISSOURI WAS BRINGING WARM AIR
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT TO OUR AREA DURING THE NIGHT AS A
DIFFUSE WARM FRONT PASSES NORTH AND EAST...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RESULTING. THERE HAS BEEN TRAINING OF CELLS...AND
HYDRO PROBLEMS WERE STARTING TO CROP UP. HARDEST HIT AREAS SHOULD
BE SEEING PRECIP TAPER OFF IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND AT
THIS POINT WILL HANDLE PROBLEMS WITH STATEMENTS/WARNINGS.

THE WARM FRONT WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED AS IT MOVES TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST TODAY...LEAVING US IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
WEATHER SYSTEM. THE EXISTING PRECIP SHOULD FOLLOW THE BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND SHIFT EAST OF OUR AREA THIS MORNING. THIS
WILL LEAVE A BREAK FOR AT LEAST A TIME TODAY. HEATING WILL RESULT
IN STRONG DESTABILIZATION BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE QUESTION WILL BE
WHETHER OR NOT ANY PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE ENOUGH
TO HELP INITIATE CONVECTION. IF CONVECTION DOES GO UP...THERE IS A
SEVERE THREAT DUE TO THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND STILL SOME
MARGINAL SHEAR LATE TODAY/THIS EVENING.

WILL LOOK FOR PRECIP TO DWINDLE TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING. THE
LOW CENTER WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OH AND INTO PA TONIGHT...SENDING
A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO KY. IT WILL STALL AND ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE WAVE RIPPLING NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT WILL BRING A
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS/STORMS ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

A DRASTIC PATTERN CHANGE WILL TAKE EFFECT OVER THE REGION AS WE
HEAD THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH MUCH COOLER WEATHER
ANTICIPATED HEADING THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF MAY. THE PERIOD WILL
START AS MOISTURE FROM A SHORTWAVE LEADS TO SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. BEST POPS WILL BE IN SOUTHEASTERN
KENTUCKY...TRAILING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW
MUCH RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY LINGERS INTO TUESDAY AS MODELS KEEP IT
FAIRLY UNSETTLED THROUGH THE DAY WITH ANOTHER WEAK WAVE DROPPING
IN FROM THE NORTH. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS THROUGH
TUESDAY. A POSSIBLE BREAK FROM SHOWERS WILL BE SEEN TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...OUR NEXT POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
DROP SOUTH LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PRODUCING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR RAIN...ALONG WITH USHERING IN MUCH COOLER WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY MAY HOLD IN THE 50S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
INTO FRIDAY INTO THE LOW 40S. WE MAY STAY IN THE 50S YET AGAIN ON
FRIDAY...BEFORE WE START TO MODERATE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL SETUP
UP SEVERAL WAVES DROPPING SOUTH ALONG WITH UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CLEARED OUT OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A FEW MVFR CIGS LEFTOVER FROM LINGERING LOW LEVEL
CLOUD CLOVER. MUCH OF THE AREA IS BREAKING OUT INTO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO THE AREA. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE IN
VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME ISOLATED LOW CIGS AND VIS WITH THE
SCATTERED STORMS. WITH A MOIST AREA HEADING INTO TONIGHT...SOME
FOG AND LOW CIGS WILL DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS TONIGHT WITH MOST TAF
SITES GOING DOWN TO IFR AND BELOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER





000
FXUS63 KJKL 011544
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1144 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1144 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

ISSUED AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING TO REMOVE MORNING
POPS THROUGH NOON. ANTICIPATING AFTERNOON CONVECTION AS SKIES
CLEAR AND INSTABILITY INCREASES. HAVE INCREASED POPS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPENDING CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGHS GETTING INTO THE MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON SEEM LIKELY WITH THE
DISSIPATING CLOUD COVER AS WELL. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS AND SENT
OUT A NEW ZFP.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 806 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

UPDATED NEAR TERM POP BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...JUST BLENDED OBS INTO THE FORECAST.|

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 454 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MISSOURI WAS BRINGING WARM AIR
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT TO OUR AREA DURING THE NIGHT AS A
DIFFUSE WARM FRONT PASSES NORTH AND EAST...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RESULTING. THERE HAS BEEN TRAINING OF CELLS...AND
HYDRO PROBLEMS WERE STARTING TO CROP UP. HARDEST HIT AREAS SHOULD
BE SEEING PRECIP TAPER OFF IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND AT
THIS POINT WILL HANDLE PROBLEMS WITH STATEMENTS/WARNINGS.

THE WARM FRONT WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED AS IT MOVES TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST TODAY...LEAVING US IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
WEATHER SYSTEM. THE EXISTING PRECIP SHOULD FOLLOW THE BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND SHIFT EAST OF OUR AREA THIS MORNING. THIS
WILL LEAVE A BREAK FOR AT LEAST A TIME TODAY. HEATING WILL RESULT
IN STRONG DESTABILIZATION BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE QUESTION WILL BE
WHETHER OR NOT ANY PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE ENOUGH
TO HELP INITIATE CONVECTION. IF CONVECTION DOES GO UP...THERE IS A
SEVERE THREAT DUE TO THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND STILL SOME
MARGINAL SHEAR LATE TODAY/THIS EVENING.

WILL LOOK FOR PRECIP TO DWINDLE TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING. THE
LOW CENTER WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OH AND INTO PA TONIGHT...SENDING
A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO KY. IT WILL STALL AND ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE WAVE RIPPLING NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT WILL BRING A
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS/STORMS ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

A DRASTIC PATTERN CHANGE WILL TAKE EFFECT OVER THE REGION AS WE
HEAD THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH MUCH COOLER WEATHER
ANTICIPATED HEADING THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF MAY. THE PERIOD WILL
START AS MOISTURE FROM A SHORTWAVE LEADS TO SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. BEST POPS WILL BE IN SOUTHEASTERN
KENTUCKY...TRAILING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW
MUCH RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY LINGERS INTO TUESDAY AS MODELS KEEP IT
FAIRLY UNSETTLED THROUGH THE DAY WITH ANOTHER WEAK WAVE DROPPING
IN FROM THE NORTH. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS THROUGH
TUESDAY. A POSSIBLE BREAK FROM SHOWERS WILL BE SEEN TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...OUR NEXT POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
DROP SOUTH LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PRODUCING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR RAIN...ALONG WITH USHERING IN MUCH COOLER WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY MAY HOLD IN THE 50S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
INTO FRIDAY INTO THE LOW 40S. WE MAY STAY IN THE 50S YET AGAIN ON
FRIDAY...BEFORE WE START TO MODERATE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL SETUP
UP SEVERAL WAVES DROPPING SOUTH ALONG WITH UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 806 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE STILL ONGOING IN SOME LOCATIONS AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION NEAR THE
VA BORDER. A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION WAS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT WAS RESULTING IN
A WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS FROM IFR TO VFR. OVERALL IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS THE PRECIPITATION TAPER OFF AND MOVES OUT
TO THE EAST. THIS SHOULD LEAVE A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD WITH VFR
AROUND MID DAY. HOWEVER...AS HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION
OCCUR...REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BIG QUESTION/UNCERTAINTY IS
INITIATION OF CONVECTION AND THE EXTENT OF COVERAGE. STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND STRONG WINDS ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE POSSIBILITY OF STORM WILL LAST INTO THE
NIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...HAL





000
FXUS63 KJKL 011206
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
806 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 806 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

UPDATED NEAR TERM POP BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...JUST BLENDED OBS INTO THE FORECAST.|

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 454 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MISSOURI WAS BRINGING WARM AIR
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT TO OUR AREA DURING THE NIGHT AS A
DIFFUSE WARM FRONT PASSES NORTH AND EAST...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RESULTING. THERE HAS BEEN TRAINING OF CELLS...AND
HYDRO PROBLEMS WERE STARTING TO CROP UP. HARDEST HIT AREAS SHOULD
BE SEEING PRECIP TAPER OFF IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND AT
THIS POINT WILL HANDLE PROBLEMS WITH STATEMENTS/WARNINGS.

THE WARM FRONT WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED AS IT MOVES TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST TODAY...LEAVING US IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
WEATHER SYSTEM. THE EXISTING PRECIP SHOULD FOLLOW THE BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND SHIFT EAST OF OUR AREA THIS MORNING. THIS
WILL LEAVE A BREAK FOR AT LEAST A TIME TODAY. HEATING WILL RESULT
IN STRONG DESTABILIZATION BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE QUESTION WILL BE
WHETHER OR NOT ANY PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE ENOUGH
TO HELP INITIATE CONVECTION. IF CONVECTION DOES GO UP...THERE IS A
SEVERE THREAT DUE TO THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND STILL SOME
MARGINAL SHEAR LATE TODAY/THIS EVENING.

WILL LOOK FOR PRECIP TO DWINDLE TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING. THE
LOW CENTER WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OH AND INTO PA TONIGHT...SENDING
A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO KY. IT WILL STALL AND ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE WAVE RIPPLING NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT WILL BRING A
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS/STORMS ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

A DRASTIC PATTERN CHANGE WILL TAKE EFFECT OVER THE REGION AS WE
HEAD THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH MUCH COOLER WEATHER
ANTICIPATED HEADING THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF MAY. THE PERIOD WILL
START AS MOISTURE FROM A SHORTWAVE LEADS TO SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. BEST POPS WILL BE IN SOUTHEASTERN
KENTUCKY...TRAILING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW
MUCH RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY LINGERS INTO TUESDAY AS MODELS KEEP IT
FAIRLY UNSETTLED THROUGH THE DAY WITH ANOTHER WEAK WAVE DROPPING
IN FROM THE NORTH. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS THROUGH
TUESDAY. A POSSIBLE BREAK FROM SHOWERS WILL BE SEEN TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...OUR NEXT POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
DROP SOUTH LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PRODUCING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR RAIN...ALONG WITH USHERING IN MUCH COOLER WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY MAY HOLD IN THE 50S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
INTO FRIDAY INTO THE LOW 40S. WE MAY STAY IN THE 50S YET AGAIN ON
FRIDAY...BEFORE WE START TO MODERATE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL SETUP
UP SEVERAL WAVES DROPPING SOUTH ALONG WITH UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 806 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE STILL ONGOING IN SOME LOCATIONS AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION NEAR THE
VA BORDER. A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION WAS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT WAS RESULTING IN
A WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS FROM IFR TO VFR. OVERALL IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS THE PRECIPITATION TAPER OFF AND MOVES OUT
TO THE EAST. THIS SHOULD LEAVE A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD WITH VFR
AROUND MID DAY. HOWEVER...AS HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION
OCCUR...REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BIG QUESTION/UNCERTAINTY IS
INITIATION OF CONVECTION AND THE EXTENT OF COVERAGE. STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND STRONG WINDS ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE POSSIBILITY OF STORM WILL LAST INTO THE
NIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...HAL





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