Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS63 KJKL 270700
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
300 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

QUIET WEATHER IS ON TAP IN THE SHORT TERM. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DRY COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER TO EASTERN KENTUCKY
TODAY AND TOMORROW. HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY ARE EXPECTED TO TOP
OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A BIT CHILLY AS
WELL...WITH LOWS DROPPING TO AROUND 40 ON AREA RIDGES...AND INTO
THE MID 30S IN THE DEEPER MOST SHELTERED VALLEYS. THERE IS ALSO A
CHANCE WE MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FROST IN OUR DEEPER NORTHEASTERN
VALLEYS TUESDAY MORNING...BUT NOTHING THAT SHOULD CAUSE ANY
ISSUES. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE ON TAP DURING
THE DAY TIME PERIODS TODAY AND TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK APPEARS RELATIVE COOL AND UNSETTLED AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS STATES SLOWLY ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. AFTER A DRY DAY ON TUESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME
REMAINING UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR NORTH THE RAIN WILL GET AS
THE SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH ALONG THE GULF
COAST...SO POPS PEAK IN THE 30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE FOR NOW WITH BEST
CHANCES OVER OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.

THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY BY FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT
THE SURFACE INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY...BUT IT APPEARS RIGHT NOW THAT THE
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE MID 70S BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP TODAY WITH SOME STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BUILDING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY...BUT CLOUD HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5KFT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...AR




000
FXUS63 KJKL 270700
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
300 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

QUIET WEATHER IS ON TAP IN THE SHORT TERM. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DRY COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER TO EASTERN KENTUCKY
TODAY AND TOMORROW. HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY ARE EXPECTED TO TOP
OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A BIT CHILLY AS
WELL...WITH LOWS DROPPING TO AROUND 40 ON AREA RIDGES...AND INTO
THE MID 30S IN THE DEEPER MOST SHELTERED VALLEYS. THERE IS ALSO A
CHANCE WE MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FROST IN OUR DEEPER NORTHEASTERN
VALLEYS TUESDAY MORNING...BUT NOTHING THAT SHOULD CAUSE ANY
ISSUES. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE ON TAP DURING
THE DAY TIME PERIODS TODAY AND TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK APPEARS RELATIVE COOL AND UNSETTLED AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS STATES SLOWLY ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. AFTER A DRY DAY ON TUESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME
REMAINING UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR NORTH THE RAIN WILL GET AS
THE SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH ALONG THE GULF
COAST...SO POPS PEAK IN THE 30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE FOR NOW WITH BEST
CHANCES OVER OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.

THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY BY FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT
THE SURFACE INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY...BUT IT APPEARS RIGHT NOW THAT THE
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE MID 70S BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP TODAY WITH SOME STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BUILDING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY...BUT CLOUD HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5KFT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...AR





000
FXUS63 KJKL 270535
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
135 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

INGESTED THE LATEST OBS DATA INTO THE HOURLY GRIDS TO ESTABLISH
NEW TRENDS. THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO FURTHER UPDATES
NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 811 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER.
THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO ERODE AS THEY SLIP SOUTHWARD...LEAVING
BEHIND CLEAR SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. FORECAST TEMPS LOOK GOOD. WILL
JUST MASSAGE THE LATEST HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND BLEND INTO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. OTHERWISE...ONLY OTHER CHANGE WAS TO ADJUST THE
SKY COVER FOR CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE
TO MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BUILDS INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION. DRIER HAS
ADVECTED IN AT THE LOWER LEVELS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH...BUT DEWPOINTS THERE HAVE NOT FALLEN BELOW THE MID 30S.
AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...THE REGION WAS UNDER NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MARITIMES AND
ASSOCIATED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS INTO THE ATLANTIC AND
SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY
REGION.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED EAST OF NEW ENGLAND IS EXPECTED TO
MEANDER TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS OR SO
AND THEN BEGINS TO PUSH EAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. A COUPLE OF
DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS UPPER LOW DURING THAT TIME.
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. BEHIND THIS MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE...HEIGHTS ARE SHOULD RISE LATE IN THE PERIOD. AT
THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A GENERAL DECREASE IN CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING. PENDING ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR INTO THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE AREA...DEWPOINTS IN SOME OF THE NORMALLY COLDEST VALLEY
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY MIGHT FALL FAR ENOUGH
TO ALLOW FOR PATCHY FROST TONIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS
WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THIS LOW
AS DEWPOINTS MAY END UP A TAD HIGH FOR THIS. NONETHELESS...LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
APRIL.

THE DISTURBANCE PASSING BY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION SHOULD
BRING AN INCREASE IN STRATOCU AND CU WHEN COUPLED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING ON MONDAY. THE CU SHOULD BE RATHER SHALLOW DUE TO CAPPING
BELOW 700 MB. THE NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE SHOULD LEAD TO CONTINUED
BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF NEARLY 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL.

THE SFC HIGH WILL BUILD A BIT CLOSER TO THE REGION FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AND ASSUMING CLEARING SKIES...PATCHY FROST WOULD APPEAR A
BIT MORE PROBABLE THAN TONIGHT FOR THE DEEPER OR NORMALLY COLDER
VALLEY LOCATIONS. CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ADVECT IN DRY
ENOUGH AIR BY THAT POINT...DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE LOWER 30S ARE
FORECAST ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE THREAT FOR THE PATCHY VALLEY FROST THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS HAS
BEEN INCLUDED IN THE HWO. AGAIN...CHANCES APPEAR A BIT HIGHER FOR
THIS WITH POSSIBLY MORE COVERAGE ON MONDAY NIGHT...WITH ANY PATCHY
VALLEY FROST TONIGHT...IF AT ALL...VERY ISOLATED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK APPEARS RELATIVE COOL AND UNSETTLED AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS STATES SLOWLY ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. AFTER A DRY DAY ON TUESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME
REMAINING UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR NORTH THE RAIN WILL GET AS
THE SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH ALONG THE GULF
COAST...SO POPS PEAK IN THE 30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE FOR NOW WITH BEST
CHANCES OVER OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.

THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY BY FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT
THE SURFACE INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY...BUT IT APPEARS RIGHT NOW THAT THE
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE MID 70S BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP TODAY WITH SOME STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BUILDING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY...BUT CLOUD HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5KFT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...AR




000
FXUS63 KJKL 270535
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
135 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

INGESTED THE LATEST OBS DATA INTO THE HOURLY GRIDS TO ESTABLISH
NEW TRENDS. THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO FURTHER UPDATES
NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 811 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER.
THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO ERODE AS THEY SLIP SOUTHWARD...LEAVING
BEHIND CLEAR SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. FORECAST TEMPS LOOK GOOD. WILL
JUST MASSAGE THE LATEST HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND BLEND INTO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. OTHERWISE...ONLY OTHER CHANGE WAS TO ADJUST THE
SKY COVER FOR CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE
TO MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BUILDS INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION. DRIER HAS
ADVECTED IN AT THE LOWER LEVELS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH...BUT DEWPOINTS THERE HAVE NOT FALLEN BELOW THE MID 30S.
AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...THE REGION WAS UNDER NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MARITIMES AND
ASSOCIATED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS INTO THE ATLANTIC AND
SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY
REGION.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED EAST OF NEW ENGLAND IS EXPECTED TO
MEANDER TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS OR SO
AND THEN BEGINS TO PUSH EAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. A COUPLE OF
DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS UPPER LOW DURING THAT TIME.
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. BEHIND THIS MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE...HEIGHTS ARE SHOULD RISE LATE IN THE PERIOD. AT
THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A GENERAL DECREASE IN CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING. PENDING ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR INTO THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE AREA...DEWPOINTS IN SOME OF THE NORMALLY COLDEST VALLEY
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY MIGHT FALL FAR ENOUGH
TO ALLOW FOR PATCHY FROST TONIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS
WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THIS LOW
AS DEWPOINTS MAY END UP A TAD HIGH FOR THIS. NONETHELESS...LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
APRIL.

THE DISTURBANCE PASSING BY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION SHOULD
BRING AN INCREASE IN STRATOCU AND CU WHEN COUPLED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING ON MONDAY. THE CU SHOULD BE RATHER SHALLOW DUE TO CAPPING
BELOW 700 MB. THE NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE SHOULD LEAD TO CONTINUED
BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF NEARLY 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL.

THE SFC HIGH WILL BUILD A BIT CLOSER TO THE REGION FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AND ASSUMING CLEARING SKIES...PATCHY FROST WOULD APPEAR A
BIT MORE PROBABLE THAN TONIGHT FOR THE DEEPER OR NORMALLY COLDER
VALLEY LOCATIONS. CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ADVECT IN DRY
ENOUGH AIR BY THAT POINT...DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE LOWER 30S ARE
FORECAST ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE THREAT FOR THE PATCHY VALLEY FROST THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS HAS
BEEN INCLUDED IN THE HWO. AGAIN...CHANCES APPEAR A BIT HIGHER FOR
THIS WITH POSSIBLY MORE COVERAGE ON MONDAY NIGHT...WITH ANY PATCHY
VALLEY FROST TONIGHT...IF AT ALL...VERY ISOLATED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK APPEARS RELATIVE COOL AND UNSETTLED AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS STATES SLOWLY ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. AFTER A DRY DAY ON TUESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME
REMAINING UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR NORTH THE RAIN WILL GET AS
THE SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH ALONG THE GULF
COAST...SO POPS PEAK IN THE 30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE FOR NOW WITH BEST
CHANCES OVER OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.

THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY BY FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT
THE SURFACE INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY...BUT IT APPEARS RIGHT NOW THAT THE
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE MID 70S BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP TODAY WITH SOME STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BUILDING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY...BUT CLOUD HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5KFT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...AR





000
FXUS63 KJKL 270011
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
811 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 811 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER.
THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO ERODE AS THEY SLIP SOUTHWARD...LEAVING
BEHIND CLEAR SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. FORECAST TEMPS LOOK GOOD. WILL
JUST MASSAGE THE LATEST HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND BLEND INTO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. OTHERWISE...ONLY OTHER CHANGE WAS TO ADJUST THE
SKY COVER FOR CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE
TO MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BUILDS INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION. DRIER HAS
ADVECTED IN AT THE LOWER LEVELS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH...BUT DEWPOINTS THERE HAVE NOT FALLEN BELOW THE MID 30S.
AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...THE REGION WAS UNDER NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MARITIMES AND
ASSOCIATED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS INTO THE ATLANTIC AND
SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY
REGION.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED EAST OF NEW ENGLAND IS EXPECTED TO
MEANDER TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS OR SO
AND THEN BEGINS TO PUSH EAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. A COUPLE OF
DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS UPPER LOW DURING THAT TIME.
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. BEHIND THIS MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE...HEIGHTS ARE SHOULD RISE LATE IN THE PERIOD. AT
THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A GENERAL DECREASE IN CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING. PENDING ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR INTO THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE AREA...DEWPOINTS IN SOME OF THE NORMALLY COLDEST VALLEY
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY MIGHT FALL FAR ENOUGH
TO ALLOW FOR PATCHY FROST TONIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS
WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THIS LOW
AS DEWPOINTS MAY END UP A TAD HIGH FOR THIS. NONETHELESS...LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
APRIL.

THE DISTURBANCE PASSING BY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION SHOULD
BRING AN INCREASE IN STRATOCU AND CU WHEN COUPLED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING ON MONDAY. THE CU SHOULD BE RATHER SHALLOW DUE TO CAPPING
BELOW 700 MB. THE NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE SHOULD LEAD TO CONTINUED
BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF NEARLY 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL.

THE SFC HIGH WILL BUILD A BIT CLOSER TO THE REGION FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AND ASSUMING CLEARING SKIES...PATCHY FROST WOULD APPEAR A
BIT MORE PROBABLE THAN TONIGHT FOR THE DEEPER OR NORMALLY COLDER
VALLEY LOCATIONS. CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ADVECT IN DRY
ENOUGH AIR BY THAT POINT...DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE LOWER 30S ARE
FORECAST ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE THREAT FOR THE PATCHY VALLEY FROST THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS HAS
BEEN INCLUDED IN THE HWO. AGAIN...CHANCES APPEAR A BIT HIGHER FOR
THIS WITH POSSIBLY MORE COVERAGE ON MONDAY NIGHT...WITH ANY PATCHY
VALLEY FROST TONIGHT...IF AT ALL...VERY ISOLATED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK APPEARS RELATIVE COOL AND UNSETTLED AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS STATES SLOWLY ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. AFTER A DRY DAY ON TUESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME
REMAINING UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR NORTH THE RAIN WILL GET AS
THE SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH ALONG THE GULF
COAST...SO POPS PEAK IN THE 30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE FOR NOW WITH BEST
CHANCES OVER OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.

THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY BY FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT
THE SURFACE INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY...BUT IT APPEARS RIGHT NOW THAT THE
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE MID 70S BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 811 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ON MONDAY WITH SOME STRATOCU BUILDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE DAY...BUT CLOUD HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5KFT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...KAS




000
FXUS63 KJKL 270011
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
811 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 811 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER.
THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO ERODE AS THEY SLIP SOUTHWARD...LEAVING
BEHIND CLEAR SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. FORECAST TEMPS LOOK GOOD. WILL
JUST MASSAGE THE LATEST HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND BLEND INTO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. OTHERWISE...ONLY OTHER CHANGE WAS TO ADJUST THE
SKY COVER FOR CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE
TO MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BUILDS INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION. DRIER HAS
ADVECTED IN AT THE LOWER LEVELS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH...BUT DEWPOINTS THERE HAVE NOT FALLEN BELOW THE MID 30S.
AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...THE REGION WAS UNDER NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MARITIMES AND
ASSOCIATED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS INTO THE ATLANTIC AND
SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY
REGION.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED EAST OF NEW ENGLAND IS EXPECTED TO
MEANDER TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS OR SO
AND THEN BEGINS TO PUSH EAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. A COUPLE OF
DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS UPPER LOW DURING THAT TIME.
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. BEHIND THIS MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE...HEIGHTS ARE SHOULD RISE LATE IN THE PERIOD. AT
THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A GENERAL DECREASE IN CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING. PENDING ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR INTO THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE AREA...DEWPOINTS IN SOME OF THE NORMALLY COLDEST VALLEY
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY MIGHT FALL FAR ENOUGH
TO ALLOW FOR PATCHY FROST TONIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS
WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THIS LOW
AS DEWPOINTS MAY END UP A TAD HIGH FOR THIS. NONETHELESS...LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
APRIL.

THE DISTURBANCE PASSING BY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION SHOULD
BRING AN INCREASE IN STRATOCU AND CU WHEN COUPLED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING ON MONDAY. THE CU SHOULD BE RATHER SHALLOW DUE TO CAPPING
BELOW 700 MB. THE NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE SHOULD LEAD TO CONTINUED
BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF NEARLY 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL.

THE SFC HIGH WILL BUILD A BIT CLOSER TO THE REGION FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AND ASSUMING CLEARING SKIES...PATCHY FROST WOULD APPEAR A
BIT MORE PROBABLE THAN TONIGHT FOR THE DEEPER OR NORMALLY COLDER
VALLEY LOCATIONS. CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ADVECT IN DRY
ENOUGH AIR BY THAT POINT...DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE LOWER 30S ARE
FORECAST ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE THREAT FOR THE PATCHY VALLEY FROST THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS HAS
BEEN INCLUDED IN THE HWO. AGAIN...CHANCES APPEAR A BIT HIGHER FOR
THIS WITH POSSIBLY MORE COVERAGE ON MONDAY NIGHT...WITH ANY PATCHY
VALLEY FROST TONIGHT...IF AT ALL...VERY ISOLATED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK APPEARS RELATIVE COOL AND UNSETTLED AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS STATES SLOWLY ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. AFTER A DRY DAY ON TUESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME
REMAINING UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR NORTH THE RAIN WILL GET AS
THE SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH ALONG THE GULF
COAST...SO POPS PEAK IN THE 30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE FOR NOW WITH BEST
CHANCES OVER OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.

THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY BY FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT
THE SURFACE INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY...BUT IT APPEARS RIGHT NOW THAT THE
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE MID 70S BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 811 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ON MONDAY WITH SOME STRATOCU BUILDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE DAY...BUT CLOUD HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5KFT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...KAS




000
FXUS63 KJKL 270011
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
811 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 811 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER.
THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO ERODE AS THEY SLIP SOUTHWARD...LEAVING
BEHIND CLEAR SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. FORECAST TEMPS LOOK GOOD. WILL
JUST MASSAGE THE LATEST HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND BLEND INTO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. OTHERWISE...ONLY OTHER CHANGE WAS TO ADJUST THE
SKY COVER FOR CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE
TO MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BUILDS INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION. DRIER HAS
ADVECTED IN AT THE LOWER LEVELS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH...BUT DEWPOINTS THERE HAVE NOT FALLEN BELOW THE MID 30S.
AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...THE REGION WAS UNDER NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MARITIMES AND
ASSOCIATED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS INTO THE ATLANTIC AND
SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY
REGION.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED EAST OF NEW ENGLAND IS EXPECTED TO
MEANDER TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS OR SO
AND THEN BEGINS TO PUSH EAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. A COUPLE OF
DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS UPPER LOW DURING THAT TIME.
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. BEHIND THIS MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE...HEIGHTS ARE SHOULD RISE LATE IN THE PERIOD. AT
THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A GENERAL DECREASE IN CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING. PENDING ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR INTO THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE AREA...DEWPOINTS IN SOME OF THE NORMALLY COLDEST VALLEY
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY MIGHT FALL FAR ENOUGH
TO ALLOW FOR PATCHY FROST TONIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS
WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THIS LOW
AS DEWPOINTS MAY END UP A TAD HIGH FOR THIS. NONETHELESS...LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
APRIL.

THE DISTURBANCE PASSING BY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION SHOULD
BRING AN INCREASE IN STRATOCU AND CU WHEN COUPLED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING ON MONDAY. THE CU SHOULD BE RATHER SHALLOW DUE TO CAPPING
BELOW 700 MB. THE NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE SHOULD LEAD TO CONTINUED
BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF NEARLY 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL.

THE SFC HIGH WILL BUILD A BIT CLOSER TO THE REGION FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AND ASSUMING CLEARING SKIES...PATCHY FROST WOULD APPEAR A
BIT MORE PROBABLE THAN TONIGHT FOR THE DEEPER OR NORMALLY COLDER
VALLEY LOCATIONS. CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ADVECT IN DRY
ENOUGH AIR BY THAT POINT...DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE LOWER 30S ARE
FORECAST ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE THREAT FOR THE PATCHY VALLEY FROST THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS HAS
BEEN INCLUDED IN THE HWO. AGAIN...CHANCES APPEAR A BIT HIGHER FOR
THIS WITH POSSIBLY MORE COVERAGE ON MONDAY NIGHT...WITH ANY PATCHY
VALLEY FROST TONIGHT...IF AT ALL...VERY ISOLATED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK APPEARS RELATIVE COOL AND UNSETTLED AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS STATES SLOWLY ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. AFTER A DRY DAY ON TUESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME
REMAINING UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR NORTH THE RAIN WILL GET AS
THE SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH ALONG THE GULF
COAST...SO POPS PEAK IN THE 30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE FOR NOW WITH BEST
CHANCES OVER OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.

THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY BY FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT
THE SURFACE INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY...BUT IT APPEARS RIGHT NOW THAT THE
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE MID 70S BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 811 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ON MONDAY WITH SOME STRATOCU BUILDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE DAY...BUT CLOUD HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5KFT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...KAS





000
FXUS63 KJKL 270011
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
811 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 811 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER.
THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO ERODE AS THEY SLIP SOUTHWARD...LEAVING
BEHIND CLEAR SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. FORECAST TEMPS LOOK GOOD. WILL
JUST MASSAGE THE LATEST HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND BLEND INTO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. OTHERWISE...ONLY OTHER CHANGE WAS TO ADJUST THE
SKY COVER FOR CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE
TO MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BUILDS INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION. DRIER HAS
ADVECTED IN AT THE LOWER LEVELS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH...BUT DEWPOINTS THERE HAVE NOT FALLEN BELOW THE MID 30S.
AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...THE REGION WAS UNDER NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MARITIMES AND
ASSOCIATED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS INTO THE ATLANTIC AND
SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY
REGION.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED EAST OF NEW ENGLAND IS EXPECTED TO
MEANDER TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS OR SO
AND THEN BEGINS TO PUSH EAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. A COUPLE OF
DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS UPPER LOW DURING THAT TIME.
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. BEHIND THIS MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE...HEIGHTS ARE SHOULD RISE LATE IN THE PERIOD. AT
THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A GENERAL DECREASE IN CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING. PENDING ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR INTO THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE AREA...DEWPOINTS IN SOME OF THE NORMALLY COLDEST VALLEY
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY MIGHT FALL FAR ENOUGH
TO ALLOW FOR PATCHY FROST TONIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS
WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THIS LOW
AS DEWPOINTS MAY END UP A TAD HIGH FOR THIS. NONETHELESS...LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
APRIL.

THE DISTURBANCE PASSING BY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION SHOULD
BRING AN INCREASE IN STRATOCU AND CU WHEN COUPLED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING ON MONDAY. THE CU SHOULD BE RATHER SHALLOW DUE TO CAPPING
BELOW 700 MB. THE NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE SHOULD LEAD TO CONTINUED
BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF NEARLY 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL.

THE SFC HIGH WILL BUILD A BIT CLOSER TO THE REGION FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AND ASSUMING CLEARING SKIES...PATCHY FROST WOULD APPEAR A
BIT MORE PROBABLE THAN TONIGHT FOR THE DEEPER OR NORMALLY COLDER
VALLEY LOCATIONS. CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ADVECT IN DRY
ENOUGH AIR BY THAT POINT...DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE LOWER 30S ARE
FORECAST ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE THREAT FOR THE PATCHY VALLEY FROST THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS HAS
BEEN INCLUDED IN THE HWO. AGAIN...CHANCES APPEAR A BIT HIGHER FOR
THIS WITH POSSIBLY MORE COVERAGE ON MONDAY NIGHT...WITH ANY PATCHY
VALLEY FROST TONIGHT...IF AT ALL...VERY ISOLATED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK APPEARS RELATIVE COOL AND UNSETTLED AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS STATES SLOWLY ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. AFTER A DRY DAY ON TUESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME
REMAINING UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR NORTH THE RAIN WILL GET AS
THE SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH ALONG THE GULF
COAST...SO POPS PEAK IN THE 30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE FOR NOW WITH BEST
CHANCES OVER OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.

THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY BY FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT
THE SURFACE INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY...BUT IT APPEARS RIGHT NOW THAT THE
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE MID 70S BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 811 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ON MONDAY WITH SOME STRATOCU BUILDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE DAY...BUT CLOUD HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5KFT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...KAS





000
FXUS63 KJKL 261938
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
338 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE
TO MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BUILDS INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION. DRIER HAS
ADVECTED IN AT THE LOWER LEVELS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH...BUT DEWPOINTS THERE HAVE NOT FALLEN BELOW THE MID 30S.
AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...THE REGION WAS UNDER NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MARITIMES AND
ASSOCIATED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS INTO THE ATLANTIC AND
SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAISN AND UPPER MS VALLEY
REGION.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED EAST OF NEW ENGLAND IS EXPECTED TO
MEANDER TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS OR SO
AND THEN BEGINS TO PUSH EAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. A COUPLE OF
DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS UPPER LOW DURING THAT TIME.
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. BEHIND THIS MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE...HEIGHTS ARE SHOULD RISE LATE IN THE PERIOD. AT
THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A GENERAL DECREASE IN CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING. PENDING ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR INTO THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE AREA...DEWPOINTS IN SOME OF THE NORMALLY COLDEST VALLEY
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY MIGHT FALL FAR ENOUGH
TO ALLOW FOR PATCHY FROST TONIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS
WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THIS LOW
AS DEWPOINTS MAY END UP A TAD HIGH FOR THIS. NONETHELESS...LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
APRIL.

THE DISTURBANCE PASSING BY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION SHOULD
BRING AN INCREASE IN STRATOCU AND CU WHEN COUPLED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING ON MONDAY. THE CU SHOULD BE RATHER SHALLOW DUE TO CAPPING
BELOW 700 MB. THE NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE SHOULD LEAD TO CONTINUED
BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF NEARLY 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL.

THE SFC HIGH WILL BUILD A BIT CLOSER TO THE REGION FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AND ASSUMING CLEARING SKIES...PATCHY FROST WOULD APPEAR A
BIT MORE PROBABLE THAN TONIGHT FOR THE DEEPER OR NORMALLY COLDER
VALLEY LOCATIONS. CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ADVECT IN DRY
ENOUGH AIR BY THAT POINT...DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE LOWER 30S ARE
FORECAST ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE THREAT FOR THE PATCHY VALLEY FROST THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS HAS
BEEN INCLUDED IN THE HWO. AGAIN...CHANCES APPEAR A BIT HIGHER FOR
THIS WITH POSSIBLY MORE COVERAGE ON MONDAY NIGHT...WITH ANY PATCHY
VALLEY FROST TONIGHT...IF AT ALL...VERY ISOLATED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK APPEARS RELATIVE COOL AND UNSETTLED AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS STATES SLOWLY ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. AFTER A DRY DAY ON TUESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME
REMAINING UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR NORTH THE RAIN WILL GET AS
THE SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH ALONG THE GULF
COAST...SO POPS PEAK IN THE 30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE FOR NOW WITH BEST
CHANCES OVER OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.

THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY BY FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT
THE SURFACE INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY...BUT IT APPEARS RIGHT NOW THAT THE
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE MID 70S BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

CLEARING OUT OF LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. MORE NORTHWEST LOCATIONS SUCH AS SYM
AND JKL ARE CURRENTLY VFR...WITH SME...LOZ AND SJS ALL EXPERIENCING
MVFR BUT SHOULD SOON EXPERIENCE FURTHER IMPROVEMENT. SAT TRENDS
INDICATE THAT SJS SHOULD BE THE FIRST TO IMPROVE TO VFR OF THESE
THREE...WITH SME AND LOZ DOING THE SAME WITHIN THE NEXT 3 HOURS.
NON TAF LOCATIONS NEAR THE VA BORDER SHOULD ALSO IMPROVE TO VFR
WITHIN THE FIRST 3 TO 4 HOURS OF THE PERIOD. ONCE VFR BEGINS...IT
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...CU AND OR
STRATOCU SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS OF THE PERIOD AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE REGION AND POSSIBLY LEAD TO
VFR CIGS NEAR 5KFT AT SYM...SJS AND JKL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT...AVERAGING 10KT
OR LESS MAINLY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...JP





000
FXUS63 KJKL 261938
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
338 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE
TO MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BUILDS INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION. DRIER HAS
ADVECTED IN AT THE LOWER LEVELS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH...BUT DEWPOINTS THERE HAVE NOT FALLEN BELOW THE MID 30S.
AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...THE REGION WAS UNDER NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MARITIMES AND
ASSOCIATED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS INTO THE ATLANTIC AND
SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAISN AND UPPER MS VALLEY
REGION.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED EAST OF NEW ENGLAND IS EXPECTED TO
MEANDER TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS OR SO
AND THEN BEGINS TO PUSH EAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. A COUPLE OF
DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS UPPER LOW DURING THAT TIME.
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. BEHIND THIS MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE...HEIGHTS ARE SHOULD RISE LATE IN THE PERIOD. AT
THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A GENERAL DECREASE IN CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING. PENDING ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR INTO THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE AREA...DEWPOINTS IN SOME OF THE NORMALLY COLDEST VALLEY
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY MIGHT FALL FAR ENOUGH
TO ALLOW FOR PATCHY FROST TONIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS
WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THIS LOW
AS DEWPOINTS MAY END UP A TAD HIGH FOR THIS. NONETHELESS...LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
APRIL.

THE DISTURBANCE PASSING BY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION SHOULD
BRING AN INCREASE IN STRATOCU AND CU WHEN COUPLED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING ON MONDAY. THE CU SHOULD BE RATHER SHALLOW DUE TO CAPPING
BELOW 700 MB. THE NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE SHOULD LEAD TO CONTINUED
BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF NEARLY 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL.

THE SFC HIGH WILL BUILD A BIT CLOSER TO THE REGION FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AND ASSUMING CLEARING SKIES...PATCHY FROST WOULD APPEAR A
BIT MORE PROBABLE THAN TONIGHT FOR THE DEEPER OR NORMALLY COLDER
VALLEY LOCATIONS. CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ADVECT IN DRY
ENOUGH AIR BY THAT POINT...DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE LOWER 30S ARE
FORECAST ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE THREAT FOR THE PATCHY VALLEY FROST THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS HAS
BEEN INCLUDED IN THE HWO. AGAIN...CHANCES APPEAR A BIT HIGHER FOR
THIS WITH POSSIBLY MORE COVERAGE ON MONDAY NIGHT...WITH ANY PATCHY
VALLEY FROST TONIGHT...IF AT ALL...VERY ISOLATED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK APPEARS RELATIVE COOL AND UNSETTLED AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS STATES SLOWLY ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. AFTER A DRY DAY ON TUESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME
REMAINING UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR NORTH THE RAIN WILL GET AS
THE SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH ALONG THE GULF
COAST...SO POPS PEAK IN THE 30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE FOR NOW WITH BEST
CHANCES OVER OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.

THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY BY FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT
THE SURFACE INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY...BUT IT APPEARS RIGHT NOW THAT THE
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE MID 70S BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

CLEARING OUT OF LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. MORE NORTHWEST LOCATIONS SUCH AS SYM
AND JKL ARE CURRENTLY VFR...WITH SME...LOZ AND SJS ALL EXPERIENCING
MVFR BUT SHOULD SOON EXPERIENCE FURTHER IMPROVEMENT. SAT TRENDS
INDICATE THAT SJS SHOULD BE THE FIRST TO IMPROVE TO VFR OF THESE
THREE...WITH SME AND LOZ DOING THE SAME WITHIN THE NEXT 3 HOURS.
NON TAF LOCATIONS NEAR THE VA BORDER SHOULD ALSO IMPROVE TO VFR
WITHIN THE FIRST 3 TO 4 HOURS OF THE PERIOD. ONCE VFR BEGINS...IT
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...CU AND OR
STRATOCU SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS OF THE PERIOD AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE REGION AND POSSIBLY LEAD TO
VFR CIGS NEAR 5KFT AT SYM...SJS AND JKL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT...AVERAGING 10KT
OR LESS MAINLY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KJKL 261755 AAC
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
155 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1115 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND MID LEVEL WAVE THAT BROUGHT THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT CONTINUES TO DEPART TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE...SFC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES NOSING INTO THE OH
VALLEY AND MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES ARE LEADING TO CLEARING OUT OF
THE LOW CLOUDS...WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALSO WORKING ACROSS
THE AREA ABOVE THESE ATTM. THESE MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO
THIN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WITH A FEW RELATIVELY HIGH BASED AND
SHALLOW CU LINGERING WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

DRIER LOW LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES TO WORK SOUTH INTO THE
REGION. THIS DRIER AIR ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF TONIGHT...MAY ALLOW FOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN VALLEY
LOCATIONS TO POSSIBLY COOL A BIT MORE THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
IF THIS OCCURS...IT WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SOME
ISOLATED OR PATCHY FROST IN A COLD SPOT OR TWO. THIS POTENTIAL
WILL CONTINUE TO BE EVALUATED AS THE 12Z MODEL SUITE ARRIVES FOR
THE AFTERNOON ISSUANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

INGESTED THE LATEST OBS DATA INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ESTABLISH
NEW TRENDS THIS MORNING. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING. BASED
ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE FORECAST OVERALL IS IN GOOD
SHAPE AS IS WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL DATA...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
BETWEEN 14 AND 15Z. AFTER THAT...EXPECT MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN
IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THE QUESTION WILL BE WILL THINGS COOL OFF ENOUGH
FOR FROST TO FORM? BASED ON THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA THE ANSWER TO
THAT QUESTION WOULD BE YES FOR AT LEAST A FEW LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE FROST SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND
LARGELY ON HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS AND WHETHER OR NOT THE WIND
LAYS DOWN ENOUGH TO FAVOR FROST. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL
INVOLVED WITH THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST...DECIDED TO LEAVE FROST
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. HOWEVER...DID GO AHEAD AND LOWER
SUNDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TO LINE UP WITH THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA.

FOR TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL LIKELY MAX OUT IN THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS WELL BELOW NORMAL...DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER THAT WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT
THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCALES...WITH A FEW PLACES PERHAPS ONLY
FALLING TO 40 OR 41. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
ON MONDAY...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE ON TAP. THIS
IS STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN WHAT WE EXPECT TODAYS HIGHS TO BE...ACCOUNTING FOR THE
EXPECTED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BRING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. WITH
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND CONSIDERING THE
AIR MASS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR FROST
BY TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FROST IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER EASTERN VALLEYS.

IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...ANYTHING WHICH FALLS DURING THE
PERIOD SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. THERE ARE TWO UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LARGE SCALE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH AND POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME RAIN FOR OUR LOCAL AREA. THE
FIRST OF THESE ORIGINATES FROM A CURRENT WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. THE
SOUTHERN END IS FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW WHICH WILL
INITIALLY CREEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW
IT BEING PICKED UP BY THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AHEAD OF A NORTHERN
STREAM IMPULSE DIVING SOUTH INTO THE CONUS AT MIDWEEK. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WOULD TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE MOISTURE SHIELD WITH THE SYSTEM WOULD EXTEND
AS FAR NW AS KY...POSSIBLY CAUSING RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS...THE NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MOVES SOUTH TO POSSIBLY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
ON THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE GFS BENDING MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF AND
THE ECMWF HAVING BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. WITH THAT
SAID...THE EVENTS ARE STILL AT LEAST A FEW DAYS OFF AND RELY ON AN
INTERACTION OF SYSTEMS TAKING PLACE. ONLY LOW POPS WILL BE USED AT
THIS POINT UNTIL CONFIDENCE BUILDS THAT THINGS WILL ACTUALLY PAN
OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

CLEARING OUT OF LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. MORE NORTHWEST LOCATIONS SUCH AS SYM
AND JKL ARE CURRENTLY VFR...WITH SME...LOZ AND SJS ALL EXPERIENCING
MVFR BUT SHOULD SOON EXPERIENCE FURTHER IMPROVEMENT. SAT TRENDS
INDICATE THAT SJS SHOULD BE THE FIRST TO IMPROVE TO VFR OF THESE
THREE...WITH SME AND LOZ DOING THE SAME WITHIN THE NEXT 3 HOURS.
NON TAF LOCATIONS NEAR THE VA BORDER SHOULD ALSO IMPROVE TO VFR
WITHIN THE FIRST 3 TO 4 HOURS OF THE PERIOD. ONCE VFR BEGINS...IT
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...CU AND OR
STRATOCU SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS OF THE PERIOD AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE REGION AND POSSIBLY LEAD TO
VFR CIGS NEAR 5KFT AT SYM...SJS AND JKL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT...AVERAGING 10KT
OR LESS MAINLY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JP





000
FXUS63 KJKL 261755 AAC
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
155 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1115 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND MID LEVEL WAVE THAT BROUGHT THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT CONTINUES TO DEPART TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE...SFC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES NOSING INTO THE OH
VALLEY AND MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES ARE LEADING TO CLEARING OUT OF
THE LOW CLOUDS...WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALSO WORKING ACROSS
THE AREA ABOVE THESE ATTM. THESE MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO
THIN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WITH A FEW RELATIVELY HIGH BASED AND
SHALLOW CU LINGERING WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

DRIER LOW LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES TO WORK SOUTH INTO THE
REGION. THIS DRIER AIR ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF TONIGHT...MAY ALLOW FOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN VALLEY
LOCATIONS TO POSSIBLY COOL A BIT MORE THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
IF THIS OCCURS...IT WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SOME
ISOLATED OR PATCHY FROST IN A COLD SPOT OR TWO. THIS POTENTIAL
WILL CONTINUE TO BE EVALUATED AS THE 12Z MODEL SUITE ARRIVES FOR
THE AFTERNOON ISSUANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

INGESTED THE LATEST OBS DATA INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ESTABLISH
NEW TRENDS THIS MORNING. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING. BASED
ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE FORECAST OVERALL IS IN GOOD
SHAPE AS IS WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL DATA...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
BETWEEN 14 AND 15Z. AFTER THAT...EXPECT MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN
IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THE QUESTION WILL BE WILL THINGS COOL OFF ENOUGH
FOR FROST TO FORM? BASED ON THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA THE ANSWER TO
THAT QUESTION WOULD BE YES FOR AT LEAST A FEW LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE FROST SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND
LARGELY ON HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS AND WHETHER OR NOT THE WIND
LAYS DOWN ENOUGH TO FAVOR FROST. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL
INVOLVED WITH THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST...DECIDED TO LEAVE FROST
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. HOWEVER...DID GO AHEAD AND LOWER
SUNDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TO LINE UP WITH THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA.

FOR TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL LIKELY MAX OUT IN THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS WELL BELOW NORMAL...DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER THAT WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT
THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCALES...WITH A FEW PLACES PERHAPS ONLY
FALLING TO 40 OR 41. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
ON MONDAY...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE ON TAP. THIS
IS STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN WHAT WE EXPECT TODAYS HIGHS TO BE...ACCOUNTING FOR THE
EXPECTED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BRING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. WITH
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND CONSIDERING THE
AIR MASS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR FROST
BY TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FROST IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER EASTERN VALLEYS.

IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...ANYTHING WHICH FALLS DURING THE
PERIOD SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. THERE ARE TWO UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LARGE SCALE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH AND POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME RAIN FOR OUR LOCAL AREA. THE
FIRST OF THESE ORIGINATES FROM A CURRENT WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. THE
SOUTHERN END IS FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW WHICH WILL
INITIALLY CREEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW
IT BEING PICKED UP BY THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AHEAD OF A NORTHERN
STREAM IMPULSE DIVING SOUTH INTO THE CONUS AT MIDWEEK. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WOULD TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE MOISTURE SHIELD WITH THE SYSTEM WOULD EXTEND
AS FAR NW AS KY...POSSIBLY CAUSING RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS...THE NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MOVES SOUTH TO POSSIBLY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
ON THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE GFS BENDING MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF AND
THE ECMWF HAVING BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. WITH THAT
SAID...THE EVENTS ARE STILL AT LEAST A FEW DAYS OFF AND RELY ON AN
INTERACTION OF SYSTEMS TAKING PLACE. ONLY LOW POPS WILL BE USED AT
THIS POINT UNTIL CONFIDENCE BUILDS THAT THINGS WILL ACTUALLY PAN
OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

CLEARING OUT OF LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. MORE NORTHWEST LOCATIONS SUCH AS SYM
AND JKL ARE CURRENTLY VFR...WITH SME...LOZ AND SJS ALL EXPERIENCING
MVFR BUT SHOULD SOON EXPERIENCE FURTHER IMPROVEMENT. SAT TRENDS
INDICATE THAT SJS SHOULD BE THE FIRST TO IMPROVE TO VFR OF THESE
THREE...WITH SME AND LOZ DOING THE SAME WITHIN THE NEXT 3 HOURS.
NON TAF LOCATIONS NEAR THE VA BORDER SHOULD ALSO IMPROVE TO VFR
WITHIN THE FIRST 3 TO 4 HOURS OF THE PERIOD. ONCE VFR BEGINS...IT
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...CU AND OR
STRATOCU SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS OF THE PERIOD AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE REGION AND POSSIBLY LEAD TO
VFR CIGS NEAR 5KFT AT SYM...SJS AND JKL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT...AVERAGING 10KT
OR LESS MAINLY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KJKL 261755 AAC
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
155 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1115 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND MID LEVEL WAVE THAT BROUGHT THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT CONTINUES TO DEPART TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE...SFC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES NOSING INTO THE OH
VALLEY AND MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES ARE LEADING TO CLEARING OUT OF
THE LOW CLOUDS...WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALSO WORKING ACROSS
THE AREA ABOVE THESE ATTM. THESE MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO
THIN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WITH A FEW RELATIVELY HIGH BASED AND
SHALLOW CU LINGERING WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

DRIER LOW LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES TO WORK SOUTH INTO THE
REGION. THIS DRIER AIR ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF TONIGHT...MAY ALLOW FOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN VALLEY
LOCATIONS TO POSSIBLY COOL A BIT MORE THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
IF THIS OCCURS...IT WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SOME
ISOLATED OR PATCHY FROST IN A COLD SPOT OR TWO. THIS POTENTIAL
WILL CONTINUE TO BE EVALUATED AS THE 12Z MODEL SUITE ARRIVES FOR
THE AFTERNOON ISSUANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

INGESTED THE LATEST OBS DATA INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ESTABLISH
NEW TRENDS THIS MORNING. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING. BASED
ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE FORECAST OVERALL IS IN GOOD
SHAPE AS IS WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL DATA...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
BETWEEN 14 AND 15Z. AFTER THAT...EXPECT MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN
IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THE QUESTION WILL BE WILL THINGS COOL OFF ENOUGH
FOR FROST TO FORM? BASED ON THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA THE ANSWER TO
THAT QUESTION WOULD BE YES FOR AT LEAST A FEW LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE FROST SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND
LARGELY ON HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS AND WHETHER OR NOT THE WIND
LAYS DOWN ENOUGH TO FAVOR FROST. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL
INVOLVED WITH THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST...DECIDED TO LEAVE FROST
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. HOWEVER...DID GO AHEAD AND LOWER
SUNDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TO LINE UP WITH THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA.

FOR TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL LIKELY MAX OUT IN THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS WELL BELOW NORMAL...DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER THAT WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT
THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCALES...WITH A FEW PLACES PERHAPS ONLY
FALLING TO 40 OR 41. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
ON MONDAY...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE ON TAP. THIS
IS STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN WHAT WE EXPECT TODAYS HIGHS TO BE...ACCOUNTING FOR THE
EXPECTED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BRING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. WITH
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND CONSIDERING THE
AIR MASS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR FROST
BY TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FROST IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER EASTERN VALLEYS.

IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...ANYTHING WHICH FALLS DURING THE
PERIOD SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. THERE ARE TWO UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LARGE SCALE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH AND POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME RAIN FOR OUR LOCAL AREA. THE
FIRST OF THESE ORIGINATES FROM A CURRENT WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. THE
SOUTHERN END IS FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW WHICH WILL
INITIALLY CREEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW
IT BEING PICKED UP BY THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AHEAD OF A NORTHERN
STREAM IMPULSE DIVING SOUTH INTO THE CONUS AT MIDWEEK. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WOULD TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE MOISTURE SHIELD WITH THE SYSTEM WOULD EXTEND
AS FAR NW AS KY...POSSIBLY CAUSING RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS...THE NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MOVES SOUTH TO POSSIBLY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
ON THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE GFS BENDING MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF AND
THE ECMWF HAVING BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. WITH THAT
SAID...THE EVENTS ARE STILL AT LEAST A FEW DAYS OFF AND RELY ON AN
INTERACTION OF SYSTEMS TAKING PLACE. ONLY LOW POPS WILL BE USED AT
THIS POINT UNTIL CONFIDENCE BUILDS THAT THINGS WILL ACTUALLY PAN
OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

CLEARING OUT OF LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. MORE NORTHWEST LOCATIONS SUCH AS SYM
AND JKL ARE CURRENTLY VFR...WITH SME...LOZ AND SJS ALL EXPERIENCING
MVFR BUT SHOULD SOON EXPERIENCE FURTHER IMPROVEMENT. SAT TRENDS
INDICATE THAT SJS SHOULD BE THE FIRST TO IMPROVE TO VFR OF THESE
THREE...WITH SME AND LOZ DOING THE SAME WITHIN THE NEXT 3 HOURS.
NON TAF LOCATIONS NEAR THE VA BORDER SHOULD ALSO IMPROVE TO VFR
WITHIN THE FIRST 3 TO 4 HOURS OF THE PERIOD. ONCE VFR BEGINS...IT
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...CU AND OR
STRATOCU SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS OF THE PERIOD AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE REGION AND POSSIBLY LEAD TO
VFR CIGS NEAR 5KFT AT SYM...SJS AND JKL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT...AVERAGING 10KT
OR LESS MAINLY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JP





000
FXUS63 KJKL 261755 AAC
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
155 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1115 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND MID LEVEL WAVE THAT BROUGHT THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT CONTINUES TO DEPART TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE...SFC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES NOSING INTO THE OH
VALLEY AND MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES ARE LEADING TO CLEARING OUT OF
THE LOW CLOUDS...WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALSO WORKING ACROSS
THE AREA ABOVE THESE ATTM. THESE MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO
THIN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WITH A FEW RELATIVELY HIGH BASED AND
SHALLOW CU LINGERING WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

DRIER LOW LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES TO WORK SOUTH INTO THE
REGION. THIS DRIER AIR ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF TONIGHT...MAY ALLOW FOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN VALLEY
LOCATIONS TO POSSIBLY COOL A BIT MORE THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
IF THIS OCCURS...IT WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SOME
ISOLATED OR PATCHY FROST IN A COLD SPOT OR TWO. THIS POTENTIAL
WILL CONTINUE TO BE EVALUATED AS THE 12Z MODEL SUITE ARRIVES FOR
THE AFTERNOON ISSUANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

INGESTED THE LATEST OBS DATA INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ESTABLISH
NEW TRENDS THIS MORNING. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING. BASED
ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE FORECAST OVERALL IS IN GOOD
SHAPE AS IS WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL DATA...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
BETWEEN 14 AND 15Z. AFTER THAT...EXPECT MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN
IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THE QUESTION WILL BE WILL THINGS COOL OFF ENOUGH
FOR FROST TO FORM? BASED ON THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA THE ANSWER TO
THAT QUESTION WOULD BE YES FOR AT LEAST A FEW LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE FROST SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND
LARGELY ON HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS AND WHETHER OR NOT THE WIND
LAYS DOWN ENOUGH TO FAVOR FROST. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL
INVOLVED WITH THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST...DECIDED TO LEAVE FROST
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. HOWEVER...DID GO AHEAD AND LOWER
SUNDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TO LINE UP WITH THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA.

FOR TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL LIKELY MAX OUT IN THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS WELL BELOW NORMAL...DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER THAT WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT
THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCALES...WITH A FEW PLACES PERHAPS ONLY
FALLING TO 40 OR 41. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
ON MONDAY...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE ON TAP. THIS
IS STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN WHAT WE EXPECT TODAYS HIGHS TO BE...ACCOUNTING FOR THE
EXPECTED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BRING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. WITH
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND CONSIDERING THE
AIR MASS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR FROST
BY TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FROST IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER EASTERN VALLEYS.

IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...ANYTHING WHICH FALLS DURING THE
PERIOD SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. THERE ARE TWO UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LARGE SCALE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH AND POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME RAIN FOR OUR LOCAL AREA. THE
FIRST OF THESE ORIGINATES FROM A CURRENT WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. THE
SOUTHERN END IS FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW WHICH WILL
INITIALLY CREEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW
IT BEING PICKED UP BY THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AHEAD OF A NORTHERN
STREAM IMPULSE DIVING SOUTH INTO THE CONUS AT MIDWEEK. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WOULD TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE MOISTURE SHIELD WITH THE SYSTEM WOULD EXTEND
AS FAR NW AS KY...POSSIBLY CAUSING RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS...THE NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MOVES SOUTH TO POSSIBLY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
ON THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE GFS BENDING MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF AND
THE ECMWF HAVING BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. WITH THAT
SAID...THE EVENTS ARE STILL AT LEAST A FEW DAYS OFF AND RELY ON AN
INTERACTION OF SYSTEMS TAKING PLACE. ONLY LOW POPS WILL BE USED AT
THIS POINT UNTIL CONFIDENCE BUILDS THAT THINGS WILL ACTUALLY PAN
OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

CLEARING OUT OF LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. MORE NORTHWEST LOCATIONS SUCH AS SYM
AND JKL ARE CURRENTLY VFR...WITH SME...LOZ AND SJS ALL EXPERIENCING
MVFR BUT SHOULD SOON EXPERIENCE FURTHER IMPROVEMENT. SAT TRENDS
INDICATE THAT SJS SHOULD BE THE FIRST TO IMPROVE TO VFR OF THESE
THREE...WITH SME AND LOZ DOING THE SAME WITHIN THE NEXT 3 HOURS.
NON TAF LOCATIONS NEAR THE VA BORDER SHOULD ALSO IMPROVE TO VFR
WITHIN THE FIRST 3 TO 4 HOURS OF THE PERIOD. ONCE VFR BEGINS...IT
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...CU AND OR
STRATOCU SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS OF THE PERIOD AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE REGION AND POSSIBLY LEAD TO
VFR CIGS NEAR 5KFT AT SYM...SJS AND JKL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT...AVERAGING 10KT
OR LESS MAINLY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KJKL 261522 AAB
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1122 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1115 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND MID LEVEL WAVE THAT BROUGHT THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT CONTINUES TO DEPART TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE...SFC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES NOSING INTO THE OH
VALLEY AND MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES ARE LEADING TO CLEARING OUT OF
THE LOW CLOUDS...WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALSO WORKING ACROSS
THE AREA ABOVE THESE ATTM. THESE MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO
THIN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WITH A FEW RELATIVELY HIGH BASED AND
SHALLOW CU LINGERING WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

DRIER LOW LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES TO WORK SOUTH INTO THE
REGION. THIS DRIER AIR ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF TONIGHT...MAY ALLOW FOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN VALLEY
LOCATIONS TO POSSIBLY COOL A BIT MORE THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
IF THIS OCCURS...IT WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SOME
ISOLATED OR PATCHY FROST IN A COLD SPOT OR TWO. THIS POTENTIAL
WILL CONTINUE TO BE EVALUATED AS THE 12Z MODEL SUITE ARRIVES FOR
THE AFTERNOON ISSUANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

INGESTED THE LATEST OBS DATA INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ESTABLISH
NEW TRENDS THIS MORNING. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING. BASED
ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE FORECAST OVERALL IS IN GOOD
SHAPE AS IS WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL DATA...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
BETWEEN 14 AND 15Z. AFTER THAT...EXPECT MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN
IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THE QUESTION WILL BE WILL THINGS COOL OFF ENOUGH
FOR FROST TO FORM? BASED ON THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA THE ANSWER TO
THAT QUESTION WOULD BE YES FOR AT LEAST A FEW LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE FROST SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND
LARGELY ON HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS AND WHETHER OR NOT THE WIND
LAYS DOWN ENOUGH TO FAVOR FROST. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL
INVOLVED WITH THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST...DECIDED TO LEAVE FROST
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. HOWEVER...DID GO AHEAD AND LOWER
SUNDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TO LINE UP WITH THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA.

FOR TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL LIKELY MAX OUT IN THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS WELL BELOW NORMAL...DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER THAT WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT
THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCALES...WITH A FEW PLACES PERHAPS ONLY
FALLING TO 40 OR 41. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
ON MONDAY...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE ON TAP. THIS
IS STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN WHAT WE EXPECT TODAYS HIGHS TO BE...ACCOUNTING FOR THE
EXPECTED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BRING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. WITH
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND CONSIDERING THE
AIR MASS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR FROST
BY TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FROST IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER EASTERN VALLEYS.

IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...ANYTHING WHICH FALLS DURING THE
PERIOD SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. THERE ARE TWO UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LARGE SCALE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH AND POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME RAIN FOR OUR LOCAL AREA. THE
FIRST OF THESE ORIGINATES FROM A CURRENT WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. THE
SOUTHERN END IS FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW WHICH WILL
INITIALLY CREEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW
IT BEING PICKED UP BY THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AHEAD OF A NORTHERN
STREAM IMPULSE DIVING SOUTH INTO THE CONUS AT MIDWEEK. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WOULD TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE MOISTURE SHIELD WITH THE SYSTEM WOULD EXTEND
AS FAR NW AS KY...POSSIBLY CAUSING RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS...THE NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MOVES SOUTH TO POSSIBLY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
ON THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE GFS BENDING MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF AND
THE ECMWF HAVING BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. WITH THAT
SAID...THE EVENTS ARE STILL AT LEAST A FEW DAYS OFF AND RELY ON AN
INTERACTION OF SYSTEMS TAKING PLACE. ONLY LOW POPS WILL BE USED AT
THIS POINT UNTIL CONFIDENCE BUILDS THAT THINGS WILL ACTUALLY PAN
OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE IFR TO LIFR CIGS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND LOW LEVEL CLOUD
COVER CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO MVFR BY AROUND 13Z AND TO VFR BY AROUND 20Z. THE TAF GRIDS WERE
UPDATED AND A WORK TAF WAS SAVED FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...AR





000
FXUS63 KJKL 261522 AAB
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1122 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1115 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND MID LEVEL WAVE THAT BROUGHT THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT CONTINUES TO DEPART TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE...SFC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES NOSING INTO THE OH
VALLEY AND MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES ARE LEADING TO CLEARING OUT OF
THE LOW CLOUDS...WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALSO WORKING ACROSS
THE AREA ABOVE THESE ATTM. THESE MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO
THIN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WITH A FEW RELATIVELY HIGH BASED AND
SHALLOW CU LINGERING WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

DRIER LOW LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES TO WORK SOUTH INTO THE
REGION. THIS DRIER AIR ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF TONIGHT...MAY ALLOW FOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN VALLEY
LOCATIONS TO POSSIBLY COOL A BIT MORE THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
IF THIS OCCURS...IT WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SOME
ISOLATED OR PATCHY FROST IN A COLD SPOT OR TWO. THIS POTENTIAL
WILL CONTINUE TO BE EVALUATED AS THE 12Z MODEL SUITE ARRIVES FOR
THE AFTERNOON ISSUANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

INGESTED THE LATEST OBS DATA INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ESTABLISH
NEW TRENDS THIS MORNING. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING. BASED
ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE FORECAST OVERALL IS IN GOOD
SHAPE AS IS WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL DATA...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
BETWEEN 14 AND 15Z. AFTER THAT...EXPECT MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN
IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THE QUESTION WILL BE WILL THINGS COOL OFF ENOUGH
FOR FROST TO FORM? BASED ON THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA THE ANSWER TO
THAT QUESTION WOULD BE YES FOR AT LEAST A FEW LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE FROST SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND
LARGELY ON HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS AND WHETHER OR NOT THE WIND
LAYS DOWN ENOUGH TO FAVOR FROST. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL
INVOLVED WITH THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST...DECIDED TO LEAVE FROST
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. HOWEVER...DID GO AHEAD AND LOWER
SUNDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TO LINE UP WITH THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA.

FOR TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL LIKELY MAX OUT IN THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS WELL BELOW NORMAL...DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER THAT WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT
THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCALES...WITH A FEW PLACES PERHAPS ONLY
FALLING TO 40 OR 41. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
ON MONDAY...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE ON TAP. THIS
IS STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN WHAT WE EXPECT TODAYS HIGHS TO BE...ACCOUNTING FOR THE
EXPECTED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BRING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. WITH
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND CONSIDERING THE
AIR MASS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR FROST
BY TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FROST IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER EASTERN VALLEYS.

IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...ANYTHING WHICH FALLS DURING THE
PERIOD SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. THERE ARE TWO UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LARGE SCALE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH AND POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME RAIN FOR OUR LOCAL AREA. THE
FIRST OF THESE ORIGINATES FROM A CURRENT WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. THE
SOUTHERN END IS FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW WHICH WILL
INITIALLY CREEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW
IT BEING PICKED UP BY THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AHEAD OF A NORTHERN
STREAM IMPULSE DIVING SOUTH INTO THE CONUS AT MIDWEEK. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WOULD TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE MOISTURE SHIELD WITH THE SYSTEM WOULD EXTEND
AS FAR NW AS KY...POSSIBLY CAUSING RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS...THE NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MOVES SOUTH TO POSSIBLY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
ON THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE GFS BENDING MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF AND
THE ECMWF HAVING BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. WITH THAT
SAID...THE EVENTS ARE STILL AT LEAST A FEW DAYS OFF AND RELY ON AN
INTERACTION OF SYSTEMS TAKING PLACE. ONLY LOW POPS WILL BE USED AT
THIS POINT UNTIL CONFIDENCE BUILDS THAT THINGS WILL ACTUALLY PAN
OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE IFR TO LIFR CIGS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND LOW LEVEL CLOUD
COVER CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO MVFR BY AROUND 13Z AND TO VFR BY AROUND 20Z. THE TAF GRIDS WERE
UPDATED AND A WORK TAF WAS SAVED FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...AR




000
FXUS63 KJKL 261052
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
652 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

INGESTED THE LATEST OBS DATA INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ESTABLISH
NEW TRENDS THIS MORNING. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING. BASED
ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE FORECAST OVERALL IS IN GOOD
SHAPE AS IS WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL DATA...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
BETWEEN 14 AND 15Z. AFTER THAT...EXPECT MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN
IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THE QUESTION WILL BE WILL THINGS COOL OFF ENOUGH
FOR FROST TO FORM? BASED ON THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA THE ANSWER TO
THAT QUESTION WOULD BE YES FOR AT LEAST A FEW LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE FROST SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND
LARGELY ON HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS AND WHETHER OR NOT THE WIND
LAYS DOWN ENOUGH TO FAVOR FROST. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL
INVOLVED WITH THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST...DECIDED TO LEAVE FROST
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. HOWEVER...DID GO AHEAD AND LOWER
SUNDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TO LINE UP WITH THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA.

FOR TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL LIKELY MAX OUT IN THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS WELL BELOW NORMAL...DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER THAT WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT
THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCALES...WITH A FEW PLACES PERHAPS ONLY
FALLING TO 40 OR 41. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
ON MONDAY...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE ON TAP. THIS
IS STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN WHAT WE EXPECT TODAYS HIGHS TO BE...ACCOUNTING FOR THE
EXPECTED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BRING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. WITH
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND CONSIDERING THE
AIR MASS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR FROST
BY TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FROST IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER EASTERN VALLEYS.

IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...ANYTHING WHICH FALLS DURING THE
PERIOD SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. THERE ARE TWO UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LARGE SCALE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH AND POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME RAIN FOR OUR LOCAL AREA. THE
FIRST OF THESE ORIGINATES FROM A CURRENT WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. THE
SOUTHERN END IS FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW WHICH WILL
INITIALLY CREEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW
IT BEING PICKED UP BY THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AHEAD OF A NORTHERN
STREAM IMPULSE DIVING SOUTH INTO THE CONUS AT MIDWEEK. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WOULD TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE MOISTURE SHIELD WITH THE SYSTEM WOULD EXTEND
AS FAR NW AS KY...POSSIBLY CAUSING RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS...THE NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MOVES SOUTH TO POSSIBLY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
ON THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE GFS BENDING MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF AND
THE ECMWF HAVING BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. WITH THAT
SAID...THE EVENTS ARE STILL AT LEAST A FEW DAYS OFF AND RELY ON AN
INTERACTION OF SYSTEMS TAKING PLACE. ONLY LOW POPS WILL BE USED AT
THIS POINT UNTIL CONFIDENCE BUILDS THAT THINGS WILL ACTUALLY PAN
OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE IFR TO LIFR CIGS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND LOW LEVEL CLOUD
COVER CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO MVFR BY AROUND 13Z AND TO VFR BY AROUND 20Z. THE TAF GRIDS WERE
UPDATED AND A WORK TAF WAS SAVED FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...AR





000
FXUS63 KJKL 261052
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
652 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

INGESTED THE LATEST OBS DATA INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ESTABLISH
NEW TRENDS THIS MORNING. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING. BASED
ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE FORECAST OVERALL IS IN GOOD
SHAPE AS IS WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL DATA...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
BETWEEN 14 AND 15Z. AFTER THAT...EXPECT MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN
IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THE QUESTION WILL BE WILL THINGS COOL OFF ENOUGH
FOR FROST TO FORM? BASED ON THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA THE ANSWER TO
THAT QUESTION WOULD BE YES FOR AT LEAST A FEW LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE FROST SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND
LARGELY ON HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS AND WHETHER OR NOT THE WIND
LAYS DOWN ENOUGH TO FAVOR FROST. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL
INVOLVED WITH THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST...DECIDED TO LEAVE FROST
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. HOWEVER...DID GO AHEAD AND LOWER
SUNDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TO LINE UP WITH THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA.

FOR TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL LIKELY MAX OUT IN THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS WELL BELOW NORMAL...DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER THAT WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT
THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCALES...WITH A FEW PLACES PERHAPS ONLY
FALLING TO 40 OR 41. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
ON MONDAY...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE ON TAP. THIS
IS STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN WHAT WE EXPECT TODAYS HIGHS TO BE...ACCOUNTING FOR THE
EXPECTED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BRING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. WITH
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND CONSIDERING THE
AIR MASS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR FROST
BY TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FROST IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER EASTERN VALLEYS.

IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...ANYTHING WHICH FALLS DURING THE
PERIOD SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. THERE ARE TWO UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LARGE SCALE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH AND POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME RAIN FOR OUR LOCAL AREA. THE
FIRST OF THESE ORIGINATES FROM A CURRENT WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. THE
SOUTHERN END IS FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW WHICH WILL
INITIALLY CREEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW
IT BEING PICKED UP BY THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AHEAD OF A NORTHERN
STREAM IMPULSE DIVING SOUTH INTO THE CONUS AT MIDWEEK. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WOULD TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE MOISTURE SHIELD WITH THE SYSTEM WOULD EXTEND
AS FAR NW AS KY...POSSIBLY CAUSING RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS...THE NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MOVES SOUTH TO POSSIBLY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
ON THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE GFS BENDING MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF AND
THE ECMWF HAVING BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. WITH THAT
SAID...THE EVENTS ARE STILL AT LEAST A FEW DAYS OFF AND RELY ON AN
INTERACTION OF SYSTEMS TAKING PLACE. ONLY LOW POPS WILL BE USED AT
THIS POINT UNTIL CONFIDENCE BUILDS THAT THINGS WILL ACTUALLY PAN
OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE IFR TO LIFR CIGS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND LOW LEVEL CLOUD
COVER CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO MVFR BY AROUND 13Z AND TO VFR BY AROUND 20Z. THE TAF GRIDS WERE
UPDATED AND A WORK TAF WAS SAVED FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...AR




000
FXUS63 KJKL 261052
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
652 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

INGESTED THE LATEST OBS DATA INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ESTABLISH
NEW TRENDS THIS MORNING. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING. BASED
ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE FORECAST OVERALL IS IN GOOD
SHAPE AS IS WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL DATA...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
BETWEEN 14 AND 15Z. AFTER THAT...EXPECT MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN
IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THE QUESTION WILL BE WILL THINGS COOL OFF ENOUGH
FOR FROST TO FORM? BASED ON THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA THE ANSWER TO
THAT QUESTION WOULD BE YES FOR AT LEAST A FEW LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE FROST SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND
LARGELY ON HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS AND WHETHER OR NOT THE WIND
LAYS DOWN ENOUGH TO FAVOR FROST. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL
INVOLVED WITH THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST...DECIDED TO LEAVE FROST
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. HOWEVER...DID GO AHEAD AND LOWER
SUNDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TO LINE UP WITH THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA.

FOR TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL LIKELY MAX OUT IN THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS WELL BELOW NORMAL...DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER THAT WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT
THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCALES...WITH A FEW PLACES PERHAPS ONLY
FALLING TO 40 OR 41. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
ON MONDAY...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE ON TAP. THIS
IS STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN WHAT WE EXPECT TODAYS HIGHS TO BE...ACCOUNTING FOR THE
EXPECTED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BRING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. WITH
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND CONSIDERING THE
AIR MASS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR FROST
BY TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FROST IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER EASTERN VALLEYS.

IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...ANYTHING WHICH FALLS DURING THE
PERIOD SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. THERE ARE TWO UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LARGE SCALE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH AND POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME RAIN FOR OUR LOCAL AREA. THE
FIRST OF THESE ORIGINATES FROM A CURRENT WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. THE
SOUTHERN END IS FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW WHICH WILL
INITIALLY CREEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW
IT BEING PICKED UP BY THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AHEAD OF A NORTHERN
STREAM IMPULSE DIVING SOUTH INTO THE CONUS AT MIDWEEK. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WOULD TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE MOISTURE SHIELD WITH THE SYSTEM WOULD EXTEND
AS FAR NW AS KY...POSSIBLY CAUSING RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS...THE NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MOVES SOUTH TO POSSIBLY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
ON THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE GFS BENDING MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF AND
THE ECMWF HAVING BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. WITH THAT
SAID...THE EVENTS ARE STILL AT LEAST A FEW DAYS OFF AND RELY ON AN
INTERACTION OF SYSTEMS TAKING PLACE. ONLY LOW POPS WILL BE USED AT
THIS POINT UNTIL CONFIDENCE BUILDS THAT THINGS WILL ACTUALLY PAN
OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE IFR TO LIFR CIGS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND LOW LEVEL CLOUD
COVER CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO MVFR BY AROUND 13Z AND TO VFR BY AROUND 20Z. THE TAF GRIDS WERE
UPDATED AND A WORK TAF WAS SAVED FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...AR




000
FXUS63 KJKL 261052
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
652 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

INGESTED THE LATEST OBS DATA INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ESTABLISH
NEW TRENDS THIS MORNING. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING. BASED
ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE FORECAST OVERALL IS IN GOOD
SHAPE AS IS WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL DATA...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
BETWEEN 14 AND 15Z. AFTER THAT...EXPECT MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN
IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THE QUESTION WILL BE WILL THINGS COOL OFF ENOUGH
FOR FROST TO FORM? BASED ON THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA THE ANSWER TO
THAT QUESTION WOULD BE YES FOR AT LEAST A FEW LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE FROST SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND
LARGELY ON HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS AND WHETHER OR NOT THE WIND
LAYS DOWN ENOUGH TO FAVOR FROST. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL
INVOLVED WITH THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST...DECIDED TO LEAVE FROST
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. HOWEVER...DID GO AHEAD AND LOWER
SUNDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TO LINE UP WITH THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA.

FOR TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL LIKELY MAX OUT IN THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS WELL BELOW NORMAL...DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER THAT WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT
THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCALES...WITH A FEW PLACES PERHAPS ONLY
FALLING TO 40 OR 41. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
ON MONDAY...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE ON TAP. THIS
IS STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN WHAT WE EXPECT TODAYS HIGHS TO BE...ACCOUNTING FOR THE
EXPECTED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BRING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. WITH
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND CONSIDERING THE
AIR MASS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR FROST
BY TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FROST IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER EASTERN VALLEYS.

IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...ANYTHING WHICH FALLS DURING THE
PERIOD SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. THERE ARE TWO UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LARGE SCALE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH AND POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME RAIN FOR OUR LOCAL AREA. THE
FIRST OF THESE ORIGINATES FROM A CURRENT WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. THE
SOUTHERN END IS FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW WHICH WILL
INITIALLY CREEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW
IT BEING PICKED UP BY THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AHEAD OF A NORTHERN
STREAM IMPULSE DIVING SOUTH INTO THE CONUS AT MIDWEEK. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WOULD TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE MOISTURE SHIELD WITH THE SYSTEM WOULD EXTEND
AS FAR NW AS KY...POSSIBLY CAUSING RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS...THE NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MOVES SOUTH TO POSSIBLY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
ON THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE GFS BENDING MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF AND
THE ECMWF HAVING BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. WITH THAT
SAID...THE EVENTS ARE STILL AT LEAST A FEW DAYS OFF AND RELY ON AN
INTERACTION OF SYSTEMS TAKING PLACE. ONLY LOW POPS WILL BE USED AT
THIS POINT UNTIL CONFIDENCE BUILDS THAT THINGS WILL ACTUALLY PAN
OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE IFR TO LIFR CIGS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND LOW LEVEL CLOUD
COVER CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO MVFR BY AROUND 13Z AND TO VFR BY AROUND 20Z. THE TAF GRIDS WERE
UPDATED AND A WORK TAF WAS SAVED FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...AR





000
FXUS63 KJKL 260836
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
436 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL DATA...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
BETWEEN 14 AND 15Z. AFTER THAT...EXPECT MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN
IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THE QUESTION WILL BE WILL THINGS COOL OFF ENOUGH
FOR FROST TO FORM? BASED ON THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA THE ANSWER TO
THAT QUESTION WOULD BE YES FOR AT LEAST A FEW LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE FROST SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND
LARGELY ON HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS AND WHETHER OR NOT THE WIND
LAYS DOWN ENOUGH TO FAVOR FROST. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL
INVOLVED WITH THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST...DECIDED TO LEAVE FROST
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. HOWEVER...DID GO AHEAD AND LOWER
SUNDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TO LINE UP WITH THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA.

FOR TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL LIKELY MAX OUT IN THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS WELL BELOW NORMAL...DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER THAT WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT
THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCALES...WITH A FEW PLACES PERHAPS ONLY
FALLING TO 40 OR 41. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
ON MONDAY...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE ON TAP. THIS
IS STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN WHAT WE EXPECT TODAYS HIGHS TO BE...ACCOUNTING FOR THE
EXPECTED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BRING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. WITH
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND CONSIDERING THE
AIR MASS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR FROST
BY TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FROST IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER EASTERN VALLEYS.

IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...ANYTHING WHICH FALLS DURING THE
PERIOD SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. THERE ARE TWO UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LARGE SCALE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH AND POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME RAIN FOR OUR LOCAL AREA. THE
FIRST OF THESE ORIGINATES FROM A CURRENT WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. THE
SOUTHERN END IS FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW WHICH WILL
INITIALLY CREEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW
IT BEING PICKED UP BY THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AHEAD OF A NORTHERN
STREAM IMPULSE DIVING SOUTH INTO THE CONUS AT MIDWEEK. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WOULD TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE MOISTURE SHIELD WITH THE SYSTEM WOULD EXTEND
AS FAR NW AS KY...POSSIBLY CAUSING RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS...THE NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MOVES SOUTH TO POSSIBLY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
ON THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE GFS BENDING MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF AND
THE ECMWF HAVING BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. WITH THAT
SAID...THE EVENTS ARE STILL AT LEAST A FEW DAYS OFF AND RELY ON AN
INTERACTION OF SYSTEMS TAKING PLACE. ONLY LOW POPS WILL BE USED AT
THIS POINT UNTIL CONFIDENCE BUILDS THAT THINGS WILL ACTUALLY PAN
OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE IFR TO LIFR CIGS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS. AN REMAINING RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE WELL EAST OF ALL THE
TAF SITES BY 11 OR 12Z. THE CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO BREAK UP
AROUND 12Z TODAY AS WELL...AND SHOULD SCATTER OUT NICELY BY 21 OR
22Z. WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SOME FOG
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN...
THE FOG SHOULD BE MINIMAL.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...AR




000
FXUS63 KJKL 260836
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
436 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL DATA...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
BETWEEN 14 AND 15Z. AFTER THAT...EXPECT MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN
IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THE QUESTION WILL BE WILL THINGS COOL OFF ENOUGH
FOR FROST TO FORM? BASED ON THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA THE ANSWER TO
THAT QUESTION WOULD BE YES FOR AT LEAST A FEW LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE FROST SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND
LARGELY ON HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS AND WHETHER OR NOT THE WIND
LAYS DOWN ENOUGH TO FAVOR FROST. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL
INVOLVED WITH THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST...DECIDED TO LEAVE FROST
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. HOWEVER...DID GO AHEAD AND LOWER
SUNDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TO LINE UP WITH THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA.

FOR TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL LIKELY MAX OUT IN THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS WELL BELOW NORMAL...DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER THAT WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT
THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCALES...WITH A FEW PLACES PERHAPS ONLY
FALLING TO 40 OR 41. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
ON MONDAY...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE ON TAP. THIS
IS STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN WHAT WE EXPECT TODAYS HIGHS TO BE...ACCOUNTING FOR THE
EXPECTED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BRING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. WITH
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND CONSIDERING THE
AIR MASS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR FROST
BY TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FROST IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER EASTERN VALLEYS.

IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...ANYTHING WHICH FALLS DURING THE
PERIOD SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. THERE ARE TWO UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LARGE SCALE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH AND POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME RAIN FOR OUR LOCAL AREA. THE
FIRST OF THESE ORIGINATES FROM A CURRENT WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. THE
SOUTHERN END IS FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW WHICH WILL
INITIALLY CREEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW
IT BEING PICKED UP BY THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AHEAD OF A NORTHERN
STREAM IMPULSE DIVING SOUTH INTO THE CONUS AT MIDWEEK. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WOULD TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE MOISTURE SHIELD WITH THE SYSTEM WOULD EXTEND
AS FAR NW AS KY...POSSIBLY CAUSING RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS...THE NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MOVES SOUTH TO POSSIBLY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
ON THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE GFS BENDING MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF AND
THE ECMWF HAVING BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. WITH THAT
SAID...THE EVENTS ARE STILL AT LEAST A FEW DAYS OFF AND RELY ON AN
INTERACTION OF SYSTEMS TAKING PLACE. ONLY LOW POPS WILL BE USED AT
THIS POINT UNTIL CONFIDENCE BUILDS THAT THINGS WILL ACTUALLY PAN
OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE IFR TO LIFR CIGS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS. AN REMAINING RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE WELL EAST OF ALL THE
TAF SITES BY 11 OR 12Z. THE CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO BREAK UP
AROUND 12Z TODAY AS WELL...AND SHOULD SCATTER OUT NICELY BY 21 OR
22Z. WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SOME FOG
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN...
THE FOG SHOULD BE MINIMAL.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...AR





000
FXUS63 KJKL 260836
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
436 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL DATA...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
BETWEEN 14 AND 15Z. AFTER THAT...EXPECT MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN
IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THE QUESTION WILL BE WILL THINGS COOL OFF ENOUGH
FOR FROST TO FORM? BASED ON THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA THE ANSWER TO
THAT QUESTION WOULD BE YES FOR AT LEAST A FEW LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE FROST SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND
LARGELY ON HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS AND WHETHER OR NOT THE WIND
LAYS DOWN ENOUGH TO FAVOR FROST. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL
INVOLVED WITH THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST...DECIDED TO LEAVE FROST
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. HOWEVER...DID GO AHEAD AND LOWER
SUNDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TO LINE UP WITH THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA.

FOR TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL LIKELY MAX OUT IN THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS WELL BELOW NORMAL...DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER THAT WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT
THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCALES...WITH A FEW PLACES PERHAPS ONLY
FALLING TO 40 OR 41. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
ON MONDAY...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE ON TAP. THIS
IS STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN WHAT WE EXPECT TODAYS HIGHS TO BE...ACCOUNTING FOR THE
EXPECTED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BRING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. WITH
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND CONSIDERING THE
AIR MASS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR FROST
BY TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FROST IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER EASTERN VALLEYS.

IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...ANYTHING WHICH FALLS DURING THE
PERIOD SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. THERE ARE TWO UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LARGE SCALE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH AND POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME RAIN FOR OUR LOCAL AREA. THE
FIRST OF THESE ORIGINATES FROM A CURRENT WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. THE
SOUTHERN END IS FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW WHICH WILL
INITIALLY CREEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW
IT BEING PICKED UP BY THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AHEAD OF A NORTHERN
STREAM IMPULSE DIVING SOUTH INTO THE CONUS AT MIDWEEK. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WOULD TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE MOISTURE SHIELD WITH THE SYSTEM WOULD EXTEND
AS FAR NW AS KY...POSSIBLY CAUSING RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS...THE NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MOVES SOUTH TO POSSIBLY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
ON THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE GFS BENDING MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF AND
THE ECMWF HAVING BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. WITH THAT
SAID...THE EVENTS ARE STILL AT LEAST A FEW DAYS OFF AND RELY ON AN
INTERACTION OF SYSTEMS TAKING PLACE. ONLY LOW POPS WILL BE USED AT
THIS POINT UNTIL CONFIDENCE BUILDS THAT THINGS WILL ACTUALLY PAN
OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE IFR TO LIFR CIGS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS. AN REMAINING RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE WELL EAST OF ALL THE
TAF SITES BY 11 OR 12Z. THE CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO BREAK UP
AROUND 12Z TODAY AS WELL...AND SHOULD SCATTER OUT NICELY BY 21 OR
22Z. WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SOME FOG
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN...
THE FOG SHOULD BE MINIMAL.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...AR





000
FXUS63 KJKL 260836
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
436 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL DATA...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
BETWEEN 14 AND 15Z. AFTER THAT...EXPECT MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN
IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THE QUESTION WILL BE WILL THINGS COOL OFF ENOUGH
FOR FROST TO FORM? BASED ON THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA THE ANSWER TO
THAT QUESTION WOULD BE YES FOR AT LEAST A FEW LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE FROST SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND
LARGELY ON HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS AND WHETHER OR NOT THE WIND
LAYS DOWN ENOUGH TO FAVOR FROST. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL
INVOLVED WITH THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST...DECIDED TO LEAVE FROST
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. HOWEVER...DID GO AHEAD AND LOWER
SUNDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TO LINE UP WITH THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA.

FOR TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL LIKELY MAX OUT IN THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS WELL BELOW NORMAL...DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER THAT WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT
THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCALES...WITH A FEW PLACES PERHAPS ONLY
FALLING TO 40 OR 41. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
ON MONDAY...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE ON TAP. THIS
IS STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN WHAT WE EXPECT TODAYS HIGHS TO BE...ACCOUNTING FOR THE
EXPECTED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BRING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. WITH
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND CONSIDERING THE
AIR MASS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR FROST
BY TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FROST IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER EASTERN VALLEYS.

IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...ANYTHING WHICH FALLS DURING THE
PERIOD SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. THERE ARE TWO UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LARGE SCALE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH AND POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME RAIN FOR OUR LOCAL AREA. THE
FIRST OF THESE ORIGINATES FROM A CURRENT WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. THE
SOUTHERN END IS FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW WHICH WILL
INITIALLY CREEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW
IT BEING PICKED UP BY THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AHEAD OF A NORTHERN
STREAM IMPULSE DIVING SOUTH INTO THE CONUS AT MIDWEEK. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WOULD TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE MOISTURE SHIELD WITH THE SYSTEM WOULD EXTEND
AS FAR NW AS KY...POSSIBLY CAUSING RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS...THE NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MOVES SOUTH TO POSSIBLY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
ON THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE GFS BENDING MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF AND
THE ECMWF HAVING BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. WITH THAT
SAID...THE EVENTS ARE STILL AT LEAST A FEW DAYS OFF AND RELY ON AN
INTERACTION OF SYSTEMS TAKING PLACE. ONLY LOW POPS WILL BE USED AT
THIS POINT UNTIL CONFIDENCE BUILDS THAT THINGS WILL ACTUALLY PAN
OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE IFR TO LIFR CIGS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS. AN REMAINING RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE WELL EAST OF ALL THE
TAF SITES BY 11 OR 12Z. THE CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO BREAK UP
AROUND 12Z TODAY AS WELL...AND SHOULD SCATTER OUT NICELY BY 21 OR
22Z. WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SOME FOG
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN...
THE FOG SHOULD BE MINIMAL.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...AR




000
FXUS63 KJKL 260700
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
300 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL DATA...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
BETWEEN 14 AND 15Z. AFTER THAT...EXPECT MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN
IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THE QUESTION WILL BE WILL THINGS COOL OFF ENOUGH
FOR FROST TO FORM? BASED ON THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA THE ANSWER TO
THAT QUESTION WOULD BE YES FOR AT LEAST A FEW LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE FROST SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND
LARGELY ON HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS AND WHETHER OR NOT THE WIND
LAYS DOWN ENOUGH TO FAVOR FROST. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL
INVOLVED WITH THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST...DECIDED TO LEAVE FROST
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. HOWEVER...DID GO AHEAD AND LOWER
SUNDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TO LINE UP WITH THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA.

FOR TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL LIKELY MAX OUT IN THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS WELL BELOW NORMAL...DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER THAT WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT
THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCALES...WITH A FEW PLACES PERHAPS ONLY
FALLING TO 40 OR 41. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
ON MONDAY...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE ON TAP. THIS
IS STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN WHAT WE EXPECT TODAYS HIGHS TO BE...ACCOUNTING FOR THE
EXPECTED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST WILL HAVE MEANDER
BACK CLOSER TO THE NORTHEAST US COAST BY THE START OF THE PERIOD
AND REMAIN THERE INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY GETTING
KICKED EAST BY A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING INTO CENTRAL
CANADA. ONE DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
THIS SHOULD BRING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CU TO THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY THE EAST ALONG WITH A SPRINKLE OR A STRAY SHOWER. ONCE
THIS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST...A PERIOD OF HEIGHT RISES AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO EARLY ON WED. THIS SHOULD
YIELD DRY WEATHER FROM LATE MON EVENING THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. THERE ARE RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES AND INCONSISTENCIES DURING THIS
PERIOD...HOWEVER...WITH THE 12Z GFS TAKING A NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH AT MIDWEEK WHILE THE GFS TAKES A MID LEVEL
WAVE TO OUR SOUTH. DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THE GFS
BUILDS MID LEVEL RIDGING TOWARD THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH
CORRESPONDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS YIELDS DRY
AND WARM WEATHER DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...IF IT WERE
TO VERIFY. BUT...THE 12Z ECMWF HAS MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE
SHORTWAVES FROM MID WEEK INTO EARLY ON FRIDAY...AND DEVELOPS AND
TAKES A CLOSED SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AND THEN EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE APPALACHIANS AND THEN TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
THU NIGHT. THIS WOULD BE A WETTER...CLOUDIER...AND COLDER SCENARIO
FROM MIDWEEK...WED INTO THU NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER TO END THE
PERIOD.

GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS...WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
MODEL BLEND WHICH IS MORE OR LESS MIDDLE OF THE ROAD. THIS HAVE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FROM WED INTO THU
NIGHT. THIS ALSO WAS A COLDER FORECAST FOR MAX TEMPS IN PARTICULAR
FOR THE PERIOD FROM WED INTO FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE IFR TO LIFR CIGS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS. AN REMAINING RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE WELL EAST OF ALL THE
TAF SITES BY 11 OR 12Z. THE CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO BREAK UP
AROUND 12Z TODAY AS WELL...AND SHOULD SCATTER OUT NICELY BY 21 OR
22Z. WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SOME FOG
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN...
THE FOG SHOULD BE MINIMAL.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...AR





000
FXUS63 KJKL 260700
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
300 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL DATA...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
BETWEEN 14 AND 15Z. AFTER THAT...EXPECT MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN
IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THE QUESTION WILL BE WILL THINGS COOL OFF ENOUGH
FOR FROST TO FORM? BASED ON THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA THE ANSWER TO
THAT QUESTION WOULD BE YES FOR AT LEAST A FEW LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE FROST SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND
LARGELY ON HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS AND WHETHER OR NOT THE WIND
LAYS DOWN ENOUGH TO FAVOR FROST. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL
INVOLVED WITH THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST...DECIDED TO LEAVE FROST
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. HOWEVER...DID GO AHEAD AND LOWER
SUNDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TO LINE UP WITH THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA.

FOR TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL LIKELY MAX OUT IN THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS WELL BELOW NORMAL...DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER THAT WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT
THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCALES...WITH A FEW PLACES PERHAPS ONLY
FALLING TO 40 OR 41. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
ON MONDAY...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE ON TAP. THIS
IS STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN WHAT WE EXPECT TODAYS HIGHS TO BE...ACCOUNTING FOR THE
EXPECTED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST WILL HAVE MEANDER
BACK CLOSER TO THE NORTHEAST US COAST BY THE START OF THE PERIOD
AND REMAIN THERE INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY GETTING
KICKED EAST BY A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING INTO CENTRAL
CANADA. ONE DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
THIS SHOULD BRING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CU TO THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY THE EAST ALONG WITH A SPRINKLE OR A STRAY SHOWER. ONCE
THIS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST...A PERIOD OF HEIGHT RISES AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO EARLY ON WED. THIS SHOULD
YIELD DRY WEATHER FROM LATE MON EVENING THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. THERE ARE RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES AND INCONSISTENCIES DURING THIS
PERIOD...HOWEVER...WITH THE 12Z GFS TAKING A NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH AT MIDWEEK WHILE THE GFS TAKES A MID LEVEL
WAVE TO OUR SOUTH. DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THE GFS
BUILDS MID LEVEL RIDGING TOWARD THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH
CORRESPONDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS YIELDS DRY
AND WARM WEATHER DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...IF IT WERE
TO VERIFY. BUT...THE 12Z ECMWF HAS MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE
SHORTWAVES FROM MID WEEK INTO EARLY ON FRIDAY...AND DEVELOPS AND
TAKES A CLOSED SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AND THEN EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE APPALACHIANS AND THEN TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
THU NIGHT. THIS WOULD BE A WETTER...CLOUDIER...AND COLDER SCENARIO
FROM MIDWEEK...WED INTO THU NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER TO END THE
PERIOD.

GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS...WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
MODEL BLEND WHICH IS MORE OR LESS MIDDLE OF THE ROAD. THIS HAVE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FROM WED INTO THU
NIGHT. THIS ALSO WAS A COLDER FORECAST FOR MAX TEMPS IN PARTICULAR
FOR THE PERIOD FROM WED INTO FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE IFR TO LIFR CIGS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS. AN REMAINING RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE WELL EAST OF ALL THE
TAF SITES BY 11 OR 12Z. THE CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO BREAK UP
AROUND 12Z TODAY AS WELL...AND SHOULD SCATTER OUT NICELY BY 21 OR
22Z. WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SOME FOG
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN...
THE FOG SHOULD BE MINIMAL.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...AR




000
FXUS63 KJKL 260700
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
300 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL DATA...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
BETWEEN 14 AND 15Z. AFTER THAT...EXPECT MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN
IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THE QUESTION WILL BE WILL THINGS COOL OFF ENOUGH
FOR FROST TO FORM? BASED ON THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA THE ANSWER TO
THAT QUESTION WOULD BE YES FOR AT LEAST A FEW LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE FROST SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND
LARGELY ON HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS AND WHETHER OR NOT THE WIND
LAYS DOWN ENOUGH TO FAVOR FROST. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL
INVOLVED WITH THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST...DECIDED TO LEAVE FROST
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. HOWEVER...DID GO AHEAD AND LOWER
SUNDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TO LINE UP WITH THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA.

FOR TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL LIKELY MAX OUT IN THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS WELL BELOW NORMAL...DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER THAT WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT
THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCALES...WITH A FEW PLACES PERHAPS ONLY
FALLING TO 40 OR 41. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
ON MONDAY...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE ON TAP. THIS
IS STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN WHAT WE EXPECT TODAYS HIGHS TO BE...ACCOUNTING FOR THE
EXPECTED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST WILL HAVE MEANDER
BACK CLOSER TO THE NORTHEAST US COAST BY THE START OF THE PERIOD
AND REMAIN THERE INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY GETTING
KICKED EAST BY A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING INTO CENTRAL
CANADA. ONE DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
THIS SHOULD BRING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CU TO THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY THE EAST ALONG WITH A SPRINKLE OR A STRAY SHOWER. ONCE
THIS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST...A PERIOD OF HEIGHT RISES AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO EARLY ON WED. THIS SHOULD
YIELD DRY WEATHER FROM LATE MON EVENING THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. THERE ARE RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES AND INCONSISTENCIES DURING THIS
PERIOD...HOWEVER...WITH THE 12Z GFS TAKING A NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH AT MIDWEEK WHILE THE GFS TAKES A MID LEVEL
WAVE TO OUR SOUTH. DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THE GFS
BUILDS MID LEVEL RIDGING TOWARD THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH
CORRESPONDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS YIELDS DRY
AND WARM WEATHER DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...IF IT WERE
TO VERIFY. BUT...THE 12Z ECMWF HAS MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE
SHORTWAVES FROM MID WEEK INTO EARLY ON FRIDAY...AND DEVELOPS AND
TAKES A CLOSED SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AND THEN EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE APPALACHIANS AND THEN TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
THU NIGHT. THIS WOULD BE A WETTER...CLOUDIER...AND COLDER SCENARIO
FROM MIDWEEK...WED INTO THU NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER TO END THE
PERIOD.

GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS...WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
MODEL BLEND WHICH IS MORE OR LESS MIDDLE OF THE ROAD. THIS HAVE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FROM WED INTO THU
NIGHT. THIS ALSO WAS A COLDER FORECAST FOR MAX TEMPS IN PARTICULAR
FOR THE PERIOD FROM WED INTO FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE IFR TO LIFR CIGS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS. AN REMAINING RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE WELL EAST OF ALL THE
TAF SITES BY 11 OR 12Z. THE CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO BREAK UP
AROUND 12Z TODAY AS WELL...AND SHOULD SCATTER OUT NICELY BY 21 OR
22Z. WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SOME FOG
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN...
THE FOG SHOULD BE MINIMAL.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...AR





000
FXUS63 KJKL 260700
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
300 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL DATA...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
BETWEEN 14 AND 15Z. AFTER THAT...EXPECT MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN
IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THE QUESTION WILL BE WILL THINGS COOL OFF ENOUGH
FOR FROST TO FORM? BASED ON THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA THE ANSWER TO
THAT QUESTION WOULD BE YES FOR AT LEAST A FEW LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE FROST SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND
LARGELY ON HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS AND WHETHER OR NOT THE WIND
LAYS DOWN ENOUGH TO FAVOR FROST. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL
INVOLVED WITH THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST...DECIDED TO LEAVE FROST
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. HOWEVER...DID GO AHEAD AND LOWER
SUNDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TO LINE UP WITH THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA.

FOR TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL LIKELY MAX OUT IN THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS WELL BELOW NORMAL...DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER THAT WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT
THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCALES...WITH A FEW PLACES PERHAPS ONLY
FALLING TO 40 OR 41. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
ON MONDAY...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE ON TAP. THIS
IS STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN WHAT WE EXPECT TODAYS HIGHS TO BE...ACCOUNTING FOR THE
EXPECTED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST WILL HAVE MEANDER
BACK CLOSER TO THE NORTHEAST US COAST BY THE START OF THE PERIOD
AND REMAIN THERE INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY GETTING
KICKED EAST BY A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING INTO CENTRAL
CANADA. ONE DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
THIS SHOULD BRING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CU TO THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY THE EAST ALONG WITH A SPRINKLE OR A STRAY SHOWER. ONCE
THIS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST...A PERIOD OF HEIGHT RISES AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO EARLY ON WED. THIS SHOULD
YIELD DRY WEATHER FROM LATE MON EVENING THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. THERE ARE RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES AND INCONSISTENCIES DURING THIS
PERIOD...HOWEVER...WITH THE 12Z GFS TAKING A NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH AT MIDWEEK WHILE THE GFS TAKES A MID LEVEL
WAVE TO OUR SOUTH. DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THE GFS
BUILDS MID LEVEL RIDGING TOWARD THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH
CORRESPONDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS YIELDS DRY
AND WARM WEATHER DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...IF IT WERE
TO VERIFY. BUT...THE 12Z ECMWF HAS MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE
SHORTWAVES FROM MID WEEK INTO EARLY ON FRIDAY...AND DEVELOPS AND
TAKES A CLOSED SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AND THEN EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE APPALACHIANS AND THEN TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
THU NIGHT. THIS WOULD BE A WETTER...CLOUDIER...AND COLDER SCENARIO
FROM MIDWEEK...WED INTO THU NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER TO END THE
PERIOD.

GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS...WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
MODEL BLEND WHICH IS MORE OR LESS MIDDLE OF THE ROAD. THIS HAVE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FROM WED INTO THU
NIGHT. THIS ALSO WAS A COLDER FORECAST FOR MAX TEMPS IN PARTICULAR
FOR THE PERIOD FROM WED INTO FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE IFR TO LIFR CIGS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS. AN REMAINING RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE WELL EAST OF ALL THE
TAF SITES BY 11 OR 12Z. THE CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO BREAK UP
AROUND 12Z TODAY AS WELL...AND SHOULD SCATTER OUT NICELY BY 21 OR
22Z. WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SOME FOG
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN...
THE FOG SHOULD BE MINIMAL.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...AR




000
FXUS63 KJKL 260530
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
130 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1043 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY.
GIVEN THE WATCH EXPIRES AT 11 PM...WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED IT FOR
AN HOUR TO CAPTURE THE REMAINING CONVECTION AS IT EXITS THE AREA
AROUND MIDNIGHT. WHILE THE TORNADO THREAT HAS GONE AWAY...STILL A
THREAT FOR A FEW BOWING SEGMENTS TO CONTAIN SOME DAMAGING WINDS OR
PERHAPS A STRONGER STORM COULD PRODUCE SOME LARGER HAIL. IN
FACT...JUST A LITTLE BIT AGO...A REPORT OF A 61 MPH WIND GUST WAS
RECEIVED OUT OF RUSSELL COUNTY. THUS...STILL WATCHING THE WIND
THREAT CLOSELY. SEVERE THREAT WILL COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT
WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS PERSISTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

SPC ISSUED A WATCH EARLIER FOR OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO SAG BACK TO THE SOUTH AND IS EVEN SHOWING UP ON LOCAL
RADARS. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE OFF ALONG THE WARM FRONT WITH
AN MCS TAKING SHAPE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY. ALL THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
WHILE INSTABILITY IS A BIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED...THIS SHOULD NOT MATTER AS STORMS BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED ON COLD POOLS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. STILL CANNOT RULE
OUT A TORNADO WITH THE 0-3KM SHEAR CLOSE TO 40 KNOTS. ANY
TORNADOES WILL LIKELY BE QUICK SPIN UPS ALONG NOTCHES IN THE LINE
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
OTHERWISE...DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN A GOOD THREAT ACROSS SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY...WITH A HAIL THREAT JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SOME CLEARING SKIES IN
THE SOUTH AND SHOWERS MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO OHIO. WENT
A BIT SLOWER ON ERODING CLOUDS IN THE SOUTH WITH THE NORTH
REMAINING WITH CLOUDS A BIT LONGER BUT THIS WILL CREATE A HEATING
DIFFERENTIAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS. WITH
THIS...EXPECTING SEVERE CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 21Z
AND MOST LIKELY FROM THE WEST. IT IS UNLIKELY THAT LIKE THE HRRR
SUGGESTS THAT THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY BUT
RATHER MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE UPDATED THE POPS TO SUGGEST
THIS. WILL STILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES IN PLACE AS
WELL. AT THIS TIME...WARMING CONTINUES IN THE SOUTH AND CONVECTION
IN WESTERN KY IS NEAR OR BEGINNING CONVECTIVE INITIATION. WITH
THIS DEVELOPMENT...WOULD EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE EAST WITH
THE BEST ENVIRONMENT CONVERGING OVER THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND
SOUTH. THEN HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THE LOW OFF TO THE WEST WILL
FINALLY TRACK EAST WITH A POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF TONIGHT AND MOVING INTO THE AREA. ALL PRECIP...AND
ASSOCIATED ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN END AFTER 06Z.

THE MID LEVEL WAVE WILL BE DEPARTING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY
ON SUNDAY...WITH THE REGION IN NW CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC. THE SFC LOW WILL ALSO BE DEPARTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST...BUT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER
NEAR 850 MB FOR SOME FLAT CU WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON ON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST WILL HAVE MEANDER
BACK CLOSER TO THE NORTHEAST US COAST BY THE START OF THE PERIOD
AND REMAIN THERE INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY GETTING
KICKED EAST BY A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING INTO CENTRAL
CANADA. ONE DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
THIS SHOULD BRING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CU TO THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY THE EAST ALONG WITH A SPRINKLE OR A STRAY SHOWER. ONCE
THIS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST...A PERIOD OF HEIGHT RISES AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO EARLY ON WED. THIS SHOULD
YIELD DRY WEATHER FROM LATE MON EVENING THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. THERE ARE RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES AND INCONSISTENCIES DURING THIS
PERIOD...HOWEVER...WITH THE 12Z GFS TAKING A NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH AT MIDWEEK WHILE THE GFS TAKES A MID LEVEL
WAVE TO OUR SOUTH. DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THE GFS
BUILDS MID LEVEL RIDGING TOWARD THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH
CORRESPONDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS YIELDS DRY
AND WARM WEATHER DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...IF IT WERE
TO VERIFY. BUT...THE 12Z ECMWF HAS MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE
SHORTWAVES FROM MID WEEK INTO EARLY ON FRIDAY...AND DEVELOPS AND
TAKES A CLOSED SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AND THEN EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE APPALACHIANS AND THEN TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
THU NIGHT. THIS WOULD BE A WETTER...CLOUDIER...AND COLDER SCENARIO
FROM MIDWEEK...WED INTO THU NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER TO END THE
PERIOD.

GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS...WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
MODEL BLEND WHICH IS MORE OR LESS MIDDLE OF THE ROAD. THIS HAVE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FROM WED INTO THU
NIGHT. THIS ALSO WAS A COLDER FORECAST FOR MAX TEMPS IN PARTICULAR
FOR THE PERIOD FROM WED INTO FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE IFR TO LIFR CIGS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS. AN REMAINING RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE WELL EAST OF ALL THE
TAF SITES BY 11 OR 12Z. THE CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO BREAK UP
AROUND 12Z TODAY AS WELL...AND SHOULD SCATTER OUT NICELY BY 21 OR
22Z. WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SOME FOG
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN...
THE FOG SHOULD BE MINIMAL.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...AR





000
FXUS63 KJKL 260530
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
130 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1043 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY.
GIVEN THE WATCH EXPIRES AT 11 PM...WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED IT FOR
AN HOUR TO CAPTURE THE REMAINING CONVECTION AS IT EXITS THE AREA
AROUND MIDNIGHT. WHILE THE TORNADO THREAT HAS GONE AWAY...STILL A
THREAT FOR A FEW BOWING SEGMENTS TO CONTAIN SOME DAMAGING WINDS OR
PERHAPS A STRONGER STORM COULD PRODUCE SOME LARGER HAIL. IN
FACT...JUST A LITTLE BIT AGO...A REPORT OF A 61 MPH WIND GUST WAS
RECEIVED OUT OF RUSSELL COUNTY. THUS...STILL WATCHING THE WIND
THREAT CLOSELY. SEVERE THREAT WILL COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT
WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS PERSISTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

SPC ISSUED A WATCH EARLIER FOR OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO SAG BACK TO THE SOUTH AND IS EVEN SHOWING UP ON LOCAL
RADARS. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE OFF ALONG THE WARM FRONT WITH
AN MCS TAKING SHAPE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY. ALL THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
WHILE INSTABILITY IS A BIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED...THIS SHOULD NOT MATTER AS STORMS BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED ON COLD POOLS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. STILL CANNOT RULE
OUT A TORNADO WITH THE 0-3KM SHEAR CLOSE TO 40 KNOTS. ANY
TORNADOES WILL LIKELY BE QUICK SPIN UPS ALONG NOTCHES IN THE LINE
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
OTHERWISE...DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN A GOOD THREAT ACROSS SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY...WITH A HAIL THREAT JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SOME CLEARING SKIES IN
THE SOUTH AND SHOWERS MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO OHIO. WENT
A BIT SLOWER ON ERODING CLOUDS IN THE SOUTH WITH THE NORTH
REMAINING WITH CLOUDS A BIT LONGER BUT THIS WILL CREATE A HEATING
DIFFERENTIAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS. WITH
THIS...EXPECTING SEVERE CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 21Z
AND MOST LIKELY FROM THE WEST. IT IS UNLIKELY THAT LIKE THE HRRR
SUGGESTS THAT THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY BUT
RATHER MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE UPDATED THE POPS TO SUGGEST
THIS. WILL STILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES IN PLACE AS
WELL. AT THIS TIME...WARMING CONTINUES IN THE SOUTH AND CONVECTION
IN WESTERN KY IS NEAR OR BEGINNING CONVECTIVE INITIATION. WITH
THIS DEVELOPMENT...WOULD EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE EAST WITH
THE BEST ENVIRONMENT CONVERGING OVER THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND
SOUTH. THEN HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THE LOW OFF TO THE WEST WILL
FINALLY TRACK EAST WITH A POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF TONIGHT AND MOVING INTO THE AREA. ALL PRECIP...AND
ASSOCIATED ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN END AFTER 06Z.

THE MID LEVEL WAVE WILL BE DEPARTING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY
ON SUNDAY...WITH THE REGION IN NW CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC. THE SFC LOW WILL ALSO BE DEPARTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST...BUT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER
NEAR 850 MB FOR SOME FLAT CU WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON ON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST WILL HAVE MEANDER
BACK CLOSER TO THE NORTHEAST US COAST BY THE START OF THE PERIOD
AND REMAIN THERE INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY GETTING
KICKED EAST BY A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING INTO CENTRAL
CANADA. ONE DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
THIS SHOULD BRING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CU TO THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY THE EAST ALONG WITH A SPRINKLE OR A STRAY SHOWER. ONCE
THIS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST...A PERIOD OF HEIGHT RISES AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO EARLY ON WED. THIS SHOULD
YIELD DRY WEATHER FROM LATE MON EVENING THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. THERE ARE RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES AND INCONSISTENCIES DURING THIS
PERIOD...HOWEVER...WITH THE 12Z GFS TAKING A NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH AT MIDWEEK WHILE THE GFS TAKES A MID LEVEL
WAVE TO OUR SOUTH. DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THE GFS
BUILDS MID LEVEL RIDGING TOWARD THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH
CORRESPONDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS YIELDS DRY
AND WARM WEATHER DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...IF IT WERE
TO VERIFY. BUT...THE 12Z ECMWF HAS MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE
SHORTWAVES FROM MID WEEK INTO EARLY ON FRIDAY...AND DEVELOPS AND
TAKES A CLOSED SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AND THEN EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE APPALACHIANS AND THEN TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
THU NIGHT. THIS WOULD BE A WETTER...CLOUDIER...AND COLDER SCENARIO
FROM MIDWEEK...WED INTO THU NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER TO END THE
PERIOD.

GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS...WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
MODEL BLEND WHICH IS MORE OR LESS MIDDLE OF THE ROAD. THIS HAVE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FROM WED INTO THU
NIGHT. THIS ALSO WAS A COLDER FORECAST FOR MAX TEMPS IN PARTICULAR
FOR THE PERIOD FROM WED INTO FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE IFR TO LIFR CIGS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS. AN REMAINING RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE WELL EAST OF ALL THE
TAF SITES BY 11 OR 12Z. THE CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO BREAK UP
AROUND 12Z TODAY AS WELL...AND SHOULD SCATTER OUT NICELY BY 21 OR
22Z. WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SOME FOG
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN...
THE FOG SHOULD BE MINIMAL.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...AR




000
FXUS63 KJKL 260243
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1043 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1043 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY.
GIVEN THE WATCH EXPIRES AT 11 PM...WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED IT FOR
AN HOUR TO CAPTURE THE REMAINING CONVECTION AS IT EXITS THE AREA
AROUND MIDNIGHT. WHILE THE TORNADO THREAT HAS GONE AWAY...STILL A
THREAT FOR A FEW BOWING SEGMENTS TO CONTAIN SOME DAMAGING WINDS OR
PERHAPS A STRONGER STORM COULD PRODUCE SOME LARGER HAIL. IN
FACT...JUST A LITTLE BIT AGO...A REPORT OF A 61 MPH WIND GUST WAS
RECEIVED OUT OF RUSSELL COUNTY. THUS...STILL WATCHING THE WIND
THREAT CLOSELY. SEVERE THREAT WILL COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT
WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS PERSISTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

SPC ISSUED A WATCH EARLIER FOR OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO SAG BACK TO THE SOUTH AND IS EVEN SHOWING UP ON LOCAL
RADARS. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE OFF ALONG THE WARM FRONT WITH
AN MCS TAKING SHAPE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY. ALL THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
WHILE INSTABILITY IS A BIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED...THIS SHOULD NOT MATTER AS STORMS BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED ON COLD POOLS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. STILL CANNOT RULE
OUT A TORNADO WITH THE 0-3KM SHEAR CLOSE TO 40 KNOTS. ANY
TORNADOES WILL LIKELY BE QUICK SPIN UPS ALONG NOTCHES IN THE LINE
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
OTHERWISE...DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN A GOOD THREAT ACROSS SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY...WITH A HAIL THREAT JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SOME CLEARING SKIES IN
THE SOUTH AND SHOWERS MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO OHIO. WENT
A BIT SLOWER ON ERODING CLOUDS IN THE SOUTH WITH THE NORTH
REMAINING WITH CLOUDS A BIT LONGER BUT THIS WILL CREATE A HEATING
DIFFERENTIAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS. WITH
THIS...EXPECTING SEVERE CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 21Z
AND MOST LIKELY FROM THE WEST. IT IS UNLIKELY THAT LIKE THE HRRR
SUGGESTS THAT THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY BUT
RATHER MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE UPDATED THE POPS TO SUGGEST
THIS. WILL STILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES IN PLACE AS
WELL. AT THIS TIME...WARMING CONTINUES IN THE SOUTH AND CONVECTION
IN WESTERN KY IS NEAR OR BEGINNING CONVECTIVE INITIATION. WITH
THIS DEVELOPMENT...WOULD EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE EAST WITH
THE BEST ENVIRONMENT CONVERGING OVER THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND
SOUTH. THEN HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THE LOW OFF TO THE WEST WILL
FINALLY TRACK EAST WITH A POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF TONIGHT AND MOVING INTO THE AREA. ALL PRECIP...AND
ASSOCIATED ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN END AFTER 06Z.

THE MID LEVEL WAVE WILL BE DEPARTING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY
ON SUNDAY...WITH THE REGION IN NW CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC. THE SFC LOW WILL ALSO BE DEPARTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST...BUT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER
NEAR 850 MB FOR SOME FLAT CU WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON ON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST WILL HAVE MEANDER
BACK CLOSER TO THE NORTHEAST US COAST BY THE START OF THE PERIOD
AND REMAIN THERE INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY GETTING
KICKED EAST BY A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING INTO CENTRAL
CANADA. ONE DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
THIS SHOULD BRING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CU TO THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY THE EAST ALONG WITH A SPRINKLE OR A STRAY SHOWER. ONCE
THIS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST...A PERIOD OF HEIGHT RISES AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO EARLY ON WED. THIS SHOULD
YIELD DRY WEATHER FROM LATE MON EVENING THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. THERE ARE RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES AND INCONSISTENCIES DURING THIS
PERIOD...HOWEVER...WITH THE 12Z GFS TAKING A NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH AT MIDWEEK WHILE THE GFS TAKES A MID LEVEL
WAVE TO OUR SOUTH. DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THE GFS
BUILDS MID LEVEL RIDGING TOWARD THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH
CORRESPONDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS YIELDS DRY
AND WARM WEATHER DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...IF IT WERE
TO VERIFY. BUT...THE 12Z ECMWF HAS MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE
SHORTWAVES FROM MID WEEK INTO EARLY ON FRIDAY...AND DEVELOPS AND
TAKES A CLOSED SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AND THEN EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE APPALACHIANS AND THEN TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
THU NIGHT. THIS WOULD BE A WETTER...CLOUDIER...AND COLDER SCENARIO
FROM MIDWEEK...WED INTO THU NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER TO END THE
PERIOD.

GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS...WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
MODEL BLEND WHICH IS MORE OR LESS MIDDLE OF THE ROAD. THIS HAVE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FROM WED INTO THU
NIGHT. THIS ALSO WAS A COLDER FORECAST FOR MAX TEMPS IN PARTICULAR
FOR THE PERIOD FROM WED INTO FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ROLL ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING
WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS. WILL TRY TO PIN DOWN AN HOUR
WHEN THE BEST WINDS WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING IN THE TAFS. THE WIND
THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT WITH IFR CIGS SPREADING SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. CIGS MAY GO
NEAR OR BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS AND STAY THERE WELL INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND WE MAY SEE VFR BY THE END OF THE DAY...BUT STILL
UNCERTAIN ON THIS POTENTIAL AS THE CLOUDS COULD BE FAIRLY STUBBORN
THIS TIME AROUND.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...KAS




000
FXUS63 KJKL 260243
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1043 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1043 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY.
GIVEN THE WATCH EXPIRES AT 11 PM...WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED IT FOR
AN HOUR TO CAPTURE THE REMAINING CONVECTION AS IT EXITS THE AREA
AROUND MIDNIGHT. WHILE THE TORNADO THREAT HAS GONE AWAY...STILL A
THREAT FOR A FEW BOWING SEGMENTS TO CONTAIN SOME DAMAGING WINDS OR
PERHAPS A STRONGER STORM COULD PRODUCE SOME LARGER HAIL. IN
FACT...JUST A LITTLE BIT AGO...A REPORT OF A 61 MPH WIND GUST WAS
RECEIVED OUT OF RUSSELL COUNTY. THUS...STILL WATCHING THE WIND
THREAT CLOSELY. SEVERE THREAT WILL COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT
WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS PERSISTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

SPC ISSUED A WATCH EARLIER FOR OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO SAG BACK TO THE SOUTH AND IS EVEN SHOWING UP ON LOCAL
RADARS. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE OFF ALONG THE WARM FRONT WITH
AN MCS TAKING SHAPE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY. ALL THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
WHILE INSTABILITY IS A BIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED...THIS SHOULD NOT MATTER AS STORMS BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED ON COLD POOLS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. STILL CANNOT RULE
OUT A TORNADO WITH THE 0-3KM SHEAR CLOSE TO 40 KNOTS. ANY
TORNADOES WILL LIKELY BE QUICK SPIN UPS ALONG NOTCHES IN THE LINE
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
OTHERWISE...DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN A GOOD THREAT ACROSS SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY...WITH A HAIL THREAT JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SOME CLEARING SKIES IN
THE SOUTH AND SHOWERS MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO OHIO. WENT
A BIT SLOWER ON ERODING CLOUDS IN THE SOUTH WITH THE NORTH
REMAINING WITH CLOUDS A BIT LONGER BUT THIS WILL CREATE A HEATING
DIFFERENTIAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS. WITH
THIS...EXPECTING SEVERE CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 21Z
AND MOST LIKELY FROM THE WEST. IT IS UNLIKELY THAT LIKE THE HRRR
SUGGESTS THAT THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY BUT
RATHER MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE UPDATED THE POPS TO SUGGEST
THIS. WILL STILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES IN PLACE AS
WELL. AT THIS TIME...WARMING CONTINUES IN THE SOUTH AND CONVECTION
IN WESTERN KY IS NEAR OR BEGINNING CONVECTIVE INITIATION. WITH
THIS DEVELOPMENT...WOULD EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE EAST WITH
THE BEST ENVIRONMENT CONVERGING OVER THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND
SOUTH. THEN HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THE LOW OFF TO THE WEST WILL
FINALLY TRACK EAST WITH A POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF TONIGHT AND MOVING INTO THE AREA. ALL PRECIP...AND
ASSOCIATED ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN END AFTER 06Z.

THE MID LEVEL WAVE WILL BE DEPARTING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY
ON SUNDAY...WITH THE REGION IN NW CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC. THE SFC LOW WILL ALSO BE DEPARTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST...BUT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER
NEAR 850 MB FOR SOME FLAT CU WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON ON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST WILL HAVE MEANDER
BACK CLOSER TO THE NORTHEAST US COAST BY THE START OF THE PERIOD
AND REMAIN THERE INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY GETTING
KICKED EAST BY A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING INTO CENTRAL
CANADA. ONE DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
THIS SHOULD BRING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CU TO THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY THE EAST ALONG WITH A SPRINKLE OR A STRAY SHOWER. ONCE
THIS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST...A PERIOD OF HEIGHT RISES AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO EARLY ON WED. THIS SHOULD
YIELD DRY WEATHER FROM LATE MON EVENING THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. THERE ARE RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES AND INCONSISTENCIES DURING THIS
PERIOD...HOWEVER...WITH THE 12Z GFS TAKING A NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH AT MIDWEEK WHILE THE GFS TAKES A MID LEVEL
WAVE TO OUR SOUTH. DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THE GFS
BUILDS MID LEVEL RIDGING TOWARD THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH
CORRESPONDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS YIELDS DRY
AND WARM WEATHER DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...IF IT WERE
TO VERIFY. BUT...THE 12Z ECMWF HAS MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE
SHORTWAVES FROM MID WEEK INTO EARLY ON FRIDAY...AND DEVELOPS AND
TAKES A CLOSED SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AND THEN EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE APPALACHIANS AND THEN TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
THU NIGHT. THIS WOULD BE A WETTER...CLOUDIER...AND COLDER SCENARIO
FROM MIDWEEK...WED INTO THU NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER TO END THE
PERIOD.

GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS...WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
MODEL BLEND WHICH IS MORE OR LESS MIDDLE OF THE ROAD. THIS HAVE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FROM WED INTO THU
NIGHT. THIS ALSO WAS A COLDER FORECAST FOR MAX TEMPS IN PARTICULAR
FOR THE PERIOD FROM WED INTO FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ROLL ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING
WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS. WILL TRY TO PIN DOWN AN HOUR
WHEN THE BEST WINDS WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING IN THE TAFS. THE WIND
THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT WITH IFR CIGS SPREADING SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. CIGS MAY GO
NEAR OR BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS AND STAY THERE WELL INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND WE MAY SEE VFR BY THE END OF THE DAY...BUT STILL
UNCERTAIN ON THIS POTENTIAL AS THE CLOUDS COULD BE FAIRLY STUBBORN
THIS TIME AROUND.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...KAS





000
FXUS63 KJKL 252354
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
754 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

SPC ISSUED A WATCH EARLIER FOR OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO SAG BACK TO THE SOUTH AND IS EVEN SHOWING UP ON LOCAL
RADARS. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE OFF ALONG THE WARM FRONT WITH
AN MCS TAKING SHAPE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY. ALL THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
WHILE INSTABILITY IS A BIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED...THIS SHOULD NOT MATTER AS STORMS BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED ON COLD POOLS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. STILL CANNOT RULE
OUT A TORNADO WITH THE 0-3KM SHEAR CLOSE TO 40 KNOTS. ANY
TORNADOES WILL LIKELY BE QUICK SPIN UPS ALONG NOTCHES IN THE LINE
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
OTHERWISE...DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN A GOOD THREAT ACROSS SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY...WITH A HAIL THREAT JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SOME CLEARING SKIES IN
THE SOUTH AND SHOWERS MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO OHIO. WENT
A BIT SLOWER ON ERODING CLOUDS IN THE SOUTH WITH THE NORTH
REMAINING WITH CLOUDS A BIT LONGER BUT THIS WILL CREATE A HEATING
DIFFERENTIAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS. WITH
THIS...EXPECTING SEVERE CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 21Z
AND MOST LIKELY FROM THE WEST. IT IS UNLIKELY THAT LIKE THE HRRR
SUGGESTS THAT THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY BUT
RATHER MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE UPDATED THE POPS TO SUGGEST
THIS. WILL STILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES IN PLACE AS
WELL. AT THIS TIME...WARMING CONTINUES IN THE SOUTH AND CONVECTION
IN WESTERN KY IS NEAR OR BEGINNING CONVECTIVE INITIATION. WITH
THIS DEVELOPMENT...WOULD EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE EAST WITH
THE BEST ENVIRONMENT CONVERGING OVER THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND
SOUTH. THEN HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THE LOW OFF TO THE WEST WILL
FINALLY TRACK EAST WITH A POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF TONIGHT AND MOVING INTO THE AREA. ALL PRECIP...AND
ASSOCIATED ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN END AFTER 06Z.

THE MID LEVEL WAVE WILL BE DEPARTING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY
ON SUNDAY...WITH THE REGION IN NW CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC. THE SFC LOW WILL ALSO BE DEPARTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST...BUT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER
NEAR 850 MB FOR SOME FLAT CU WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON ON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST WILL HAVE MEANDER
BACK CLOSER TO THE NORTHEAST US COAST BY THE START OF THE PERIOD
AND REMAIN THERE INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY GETTING
KICKED EAST BY A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING INTO CENTRAL
CANADA. ONE DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
THIS SHOULD BRING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CU TO THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY THE EAST ALONG WITH A SPRINKLE OR A STRAY SHOWER. ONCE
THIS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST...A PERIOD OF HEIGHT RISES AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO EARLY ON WED. THIS SHOULD
YIELD DRY WEATHER FROM LATE MON EVENING THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. THERE ARE RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES AND INCONSISTENCIES DURING THIS
PERIOD...HOWEVER...WITH THE 12Z GFS TAKING A NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH AT MIDWEEK WHILE THE GFS TAKES A MID LEVEL
WAVE TO OUR SOUTH. DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THE GFS
BUILDS MID LEVEL RIDGING TOWARD THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH
CORRESPONDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS YIELDS DRY
AND WARM WEATHER DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...IF IT WERE
TO VERIFY. BUT...THE 12Z ECMWF HAS MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE
SHORTWAVES FROM MID WEEK INTO EARLY ON FRIDAY...AND DEVELOPS AND
TAKES A CLOSED SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AND THEN EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE APPALACHIANS AND THEN TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
THU NIGHT. THIS WOULD BE A WETTER...CLOUDIER...AND COLDER SCENARIO
FROM MIDWEEK...WED INTO THU NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER TO END THE
PERIOD.

GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS...WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
MODEL BLEND WHICH IS MORE OR LESS MIDDLE OF THE ROAD. THIS HAVE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FROM WED INTO THU
NIGHT. THIS ALSO WAS A COLDER FORECAST FOR MAX TEMPS IN PARTICULAR
FOR THE PERIOD FROM WED INTO FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ROLL ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING
WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS. WILL TRY TO PIN DOWN AN HOUR
WHEN THE BEST WINDS WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING IN THE TAFS. THE WIND
THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT WITH IFR CIGS SPREADING SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. CIGS MAY GO
NEAR OR BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS AND STAY THERE WELL INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND WE MAY SEE VFR BY THE END OF THE DAY...BUT STILL
UNCERTAIN ON THIS POTENTIAL AS THE CLOUDS COULD BE FAIRLY STUBBORN
THIS TIME AROUND.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...KAS




000
FXUS63 KJKL 252354
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
754 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

SPC ISSUED A WATCH EARLIER FOR OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO SAG BACK TO THE SOUTH AND IS EVEN SHOWING UP ON LOCAL
RADARS. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE OFF ALONG THE WARM FRONT WITH
AN MCS TAKING SHAPE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY. ALL THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
WHILE INSTABILITY IS A BIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED...THIS SHOULD NOT MATTER AS STORMS BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED ON COLD POOLS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. STILL CANNOT RULE
OUT A TORNADO WITH THE 0-3KM SHEAR CLOSE TO 40 KNOTS. ANY
TORNADOES WILL LIKELY BE QUICK SPIN UPS ALONG NOTCHES IN THE LINE
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
OTHERWISE...DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN A GOOD THREAT ACROSS SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY...WITH A HAIL THREAT JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SOME CLEARING SKIES IN
THE SOUTH AND SHOWERS MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO OHIO. WENT
A BIT SLOWER ON ERODING CLOUDS IN THE SOUTH WITH THE NORTH
REMAINING WITH CLOUDS A BIT LONGER BUT THIS WILL CREATE A HEATING
DIFFERENTIAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS. WITH
THIS...EXPECTING SEVERE CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 21Z
AND MOST LIKELY FROM THE WEST. IT IS UNLIKELY THAT LIKE THE HRRR
SUGGESTS THAT THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY BUT
RATHER MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE UPDATED THE POPS TO SUGGEST
THIS. WILL STILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES IN PLACE AS
WELL. AT THIS TIME...WARMING CONTINUES IN THE SOUTH AND CONVECTION
IN WESTERN KY IS NEAR OR BEGINNING CONVECTIVE INITIATION. WITH
THIS DEVELOPMENT...WOULD EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE EAST WITH
THE BEST ENVIRONMENT CONVERGING OVER THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND
SOUTH. THEN HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THE LOW OFF TO THE WEST WILL
FINALLY TRACK EAST WITH A POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF TONIGHT AND MOVING INTO THE AREA. ALL PRECIP...AND
ASSOCIATED ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN END AFTER 06Z.

THE MID LEVEL WAVE WILL BE DEPARTING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY
ON SUNDAY...WITH THE REGION IN NW CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC. THE SFC LOW WILL ALSO BE DEPARTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST...BUT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER
NEAR 850 MB FOR SOME FLAT CU WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON ON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST WILL HAVE MEANDER
BACK CLOSER TO THE NORTHEAST US COAST BY THE START OF THE PERIOD
AND REMAIN THERE INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY GETTING
KICKED EAST BY A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING INTO CENTRAL
CANADA. ONE DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
THIS SHOULD BRING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CU TO THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY THE EAST ALONG WITH A SPRINKLE OR A STRAY SHOWER. ONCE
THIS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST...A PERIOD OF HEIGHT RISES AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO EARLY ON WED. THIS SHOULD
YIELD DRY WEATHER FROM LATE MON EVENING THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. THERE ARE RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES AND INCONSISTENCIES DURING THIS
PERIOD...HOWEVER...WITH THE 12Z GFS TAKING A NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH AT MIDWEEK WHILE THE GFS TAKES A MID LEVEL
WAVE TO OUR SOUTH. DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THE GFS
BUILDS MID LEVEL RIDGING TOWARD THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH
CORRESPONDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS YIELDS DRY
AND WARM WEATHER DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...IF IT WERE
TO VERIFY. BUT...THE 12Z ECMWF HAS MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE
SHORTWAVES FROM MID WEEK INTO EARLY ON FRIDAY...AND DEVELOPS AND
TAKES A CLOSED SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AND THEN EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE APPALACHIANS AND THEN TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
THU NIGHT. THIS WOULD BE A WETTER...CLOUDIER...AND COLDER SCENARIO
FROM MIDWEEK...WED INTO THU NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER TO END THE
PERIOD.

GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS...WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
MODEL BLEND WHICH IS MORE OR LESS MIDDLE OF THE ROAD. THIS HAVE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FROM WED INTO THU
NIGHT. THIS ALSO WAS A COLDER FORECAST FOR MAX TEMPS IN PARTICULAR
FOR THE PERIOD FROM WED INTO FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ROLL ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING
WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS. WILL TRY TO PIN DOWN AN HOUR
WHEN THE BEST WINDS WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING IN THE TAFS. THE WIND
THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT WITH IFR CIGS SPREADING SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. CIGS MAY GO
NEAR OR BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS AND STAY THERE WELL INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND WE MAY SEE VFR BY THE END OF THE DAY...BUT STILL
UNCERTAIN ON THIS POTENTIAL AS THE CLOUDS COULD BE FAIRLY STUBBORN
THIS TIME AROUND.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...KAS





000
FXUS63 KJKL 252354
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
754 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

SPC ISSUED A WATCH EARLIER FOR OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO SAG BACK TO THE SOUTH AND IS EVEN SHOWING UP ON LOCAL
RADARS. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE OFF ALONG THE WARM FRONT WITH
AN MCS TAKING SHAPE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY. ALL THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
WHILE INSTABILITY IS A BIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED...THIS SHOULD NOT MATTER AS STORMS BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED ON COLD POOLS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. STILL CANNOT RULE
OUT A TORNADO WITH THE 0-3KM SHEAR CLOSE TO 40 KNOTS. ANY
TORNADOES WILL LIKELY BE QUICK SPIN UPS ALONG NOTCHES IN THE LINE
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
OTHERWISE...DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN A GOOD THREAT ACROSS SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY...WITH A HAIL THREAT JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SOME CLEARING SKIES IN
THE SOUTH AND SHOWERS MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO OHIO. WENT
A BIT SLOWER ON ERODING CLOUDS IN THE SOUTH WITH THE NORTH
REMAINING WITH CLOUDS A BIT LONGER BUT THIS WILL CREATE A HEATING
DIFFERENTIAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS. WITH
THIS...EXPECTING SEVERE CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 21Z
AND MOST LIKELY FROM THE WEST. IT IS UNLIKELY THAT LIKE THE HRRR
SUGGESTS THAT THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY BUT
RATHER MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE UPDATED THE POPS TO SUGGEST
THIS. WILL STILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES IN PLACE AS
WELL. AT THIS TIME...WARMING CONTINUES IN THE SOUTH AND CONVECTION
IN WESTERN KY IS NEAR OR BEGINNING CONVECTIVE INITIATION. WITH
THIS DEVELOPMENT...WOULD EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE EAST WITH
THE BEST ENVIRONMENT CONVERGING OVER THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND
SOUTH. THEN HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THE LOW OFF TO THE WEST WILL
FINALLY TRACK EAST WITH A POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF TONIGHT AND MOVING INTO THE AREA. ALL PRECIP...AND
ASSOCIATED ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN END AFTER 06Z.

THE MID LEVEL WAVE WILL BE DEPARTING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY
ON SUNDAY...WITH THE REGION IN NW CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC. THE SFC LOW WILL ALSO BE DEPARTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST...BUT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER
NEAR 850 MB FOR SOME FLAT CU WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON ON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST WILL HAVE MEANDER
BACK CLOSER TO THE NORTHEAST US COAST BY THE START OF THE PERIOD
AND REMAIN THERE INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY GETTING
KICKED EAST BY A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING INTO CENTRAL
CANADA. ONE DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
THIS SHOULD BRING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CU TO THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY THE EAST ALONG WITH A SPRINKLE OR A STRAY SHOWER. ONCE
THIS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST...A PERIOD OF HEIGHT RISES AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO EARLY ON WED. THIS SHOULD
YIELD DRY WEATHER FROM LATE MON EVENING THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. THERE ARE RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES AND INCONSISTENCIES DURING THIS
PERIOD...HOWEVER...WITH THE 12Z GFS TAKING A NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH AT MIDWEEK WHILE THE GFS TAKES A MID LEVEL
WAVE TO OUR SOUTH. DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THE GFS
BUILDS MID LEVEL RIDGING TOWARD THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH
CORRESPONDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS YIELDS DRY
AND WARM WEATHER DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...IF IT WERE
TO VERIFY. BUT...THE 12Z ECMWF HAS MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE
SHORTWAVES FROM MID WEEK INTO EARLY ON FRIDAY...AND DEVELOPS AND
TAKES A CLOSED SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AND THEN EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE APPALACHIANS AND THEN TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
THU NIGHT. THIS WOULD BE A WETTER...CLOUDIER...AND COLDER SCENARIO
FROM MIDWEEK...WED INTO THU NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER TO END THE
PERIOD.

GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS...WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
MODEL BLEND WHICH IS MORE OR LESS MIDDLE OF THE ROAD. THIS HAVE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FROM WED INTO THU
NIGHT. THIS ALSO WAS A COLDER FORECAST FOR MAX TEMPS IN PARTICULAR
FOR THE PERIOD FROM WED INTO FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ROLL ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING
WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS. WILL TRY TO PIN DOWN AN HOUR
WHEN THE BEST WINDS WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING IN THE TAFS. THE WIND
THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT WITH IFR CIGS SPREADING SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. CIGS MAY GO
NEAR OR BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS AND STAY THERE WELL INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND WE MAY SEE VFR BY THE END OF THE DAY...BUT STILL
UNCERTAIN ON THIS POTENTIAL AS THE CLOUDS COULD BE FAIRLY STUBBORN
THIS TIME AROUND.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...KAS





000
FXUS63 KJKL 252354
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
754 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

SPC ISSUED A WATCH EARLIER FOR OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO SAG BACK TO THE SOUTH AND IS EVEN SHOWING UP ON LOCAL
RADARS. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE OFF ALONG THE WARM FRONT WITH
AN MCS TAKING SHAPE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY. ALL THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
WHILE INSTABILITY IS A BIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED...THIS SHOULD NOT MATTER AS STORMS BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED ON COLD POOLS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. STILL CANNOT RULE
OUT A TORNADO WITH THE 0-3KM SHEAR CLOSE TO 40 KNOTS. ANY
TORNADOES WILL LIKELY BE QUICK SPIN UPS ALONG NOTCHES IN THE LINE
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
OTHERWISE...DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN A GOOD THREAT ACROSS SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY...WITH A HAIL THREAT JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SOME CLEARING SKIES IN
THE SOUTH AND SHOWERS MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO OHIO. WENT
A BIT SLOWER ON ERODING CLOUDS IN THE SOUTH WITH THE NORTH
REMAINING WITH CLOUDS A BIT LONGER BUT THIS WILL CREATE A HEATING
DIFFERENTIAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS. WITH
THIS...EXPECTING SEVERE CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 21Z
AND MOST LIKELY FROM THE WEST. IT IS UNLIKELY THAT LIKE THE HRRR
SUGGESTS THAT THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY BUT
RATHER MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE UPDATED THE POPS TO SUGGEST
THIS. WILL STILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES IN PLACE AS
WELL. AT THIS TIME...WARMING CONTINUES IN THE SOUTH AND CONVECTION
IN WESTERN KY IS NEAR OR BEGINNING CONVECTIVE INITIATION. WITH
THIS DEVELOPMENT...WOULD EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE EAST WITH
THE BEST ENVIRONMENT CONVERGING OVER THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND
SOUTH. THEN HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THE LOW OFF TO THE WEST WILL
FINALLY TRACK EAST WITH A POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF TONIGHT AND MOVING INTO THE AREA. ALL PRECIP...AND
ASSOCIATED ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN END AFTER 06Z.

THE MID LEVEL WAVE WILL BE DEPARTING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY
ON SUNDAY...WITH THE REGION IN NW CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC. THE SFC LOW WILL ALSO BE DEPARTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST...BUT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER
NEAR 850 MB FOR SOME FLAT CU WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON ON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST WILL HAVE MEANDER
BACK CLOSER TO THE NORTHEAST US COAST BY THE START OF THE PERIOD
AND REMAIN THERE INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY GETTING
KICKED EAST BY A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING INTO CENTRAL
CANADA. ONE DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
THIS SHOULD BRING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CU TO THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY THE EAST ALONG WITH A SPRINKLE OR A STRAY SHOWER. ONCE
THIS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST...A PERIOD OF HEIGHT RISES AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO EARLY ON WED. THIS SHOULD
YIELD DRY WEATHER FROM LATE MON EVENING THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. THERE ARE RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES AND INCONSISTENCIES DURING THIS
PERIOD...HOWEVER...WITH THE 12Z GFS TAKING A NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH AT MIDWEEK WHILE THE GFS TAKES A MID LEVEL
WAVE TO OUR SOUTH. DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THE GFS
BUILDS MID LEVEL RIDGING TOWARD THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH
CORRESPONDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS YIELDS DRY
AND WARM WEATHER DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...IF IT WERE
TO VERIFY. BUT...THE 12Z ECMWF HAS MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE
SHORTWAVES FROM MID WEEK INTO EARLY ON FRIDAY...AND DEVELOPS AND
TAKES A CLOSED SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AND THEN EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE APPALACHIANS AND THEN TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
THU NIGHT. THIS WOULD BE A WETTER...CLOUDIER...AND COLDER SCENARIO
FROM MIDWEEK...WED INTO THU NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER TO END THE
PERIOD.

GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS...WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
MODEL BLEND WHICH IS MORE OR LESS MIDDLE OF THE ROAD. THIS HAVE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FROM WED INTO THU
NIGHT. THIS ALSO WAS A COLDER FORECAST FOR MAX TEMPS IN PARTICULAR
FOR THE PERIOD FROM WED INTO FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ROLL ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING
WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS. WILL TRY TO PIN DOWN AN HOUR
WHEN THE BEST WINDS WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING IN THE TAFS. THE WIND
THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT WITH IFR CIGS SPREADING SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. CIGS MAY GO
NEAR OR BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS AND STAY THERE WELL INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND WE MAY SEE VFR BY THE END OF THE DAY...BUT STILL
UNCERTAIN ON THIS POTENTIAL AS THE CLOUDS COULD BE FAIRLY STUBBORN
THIS TIME AROUND.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...KAS




000
FXUS63 KJKL 251956
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
356 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SOME CLEARING SKIES IN
THE SOUTH AND SHOWERS MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO OHIO. WENT
A BIT SLOWER ON ERODING CLOUDS IN THE SOUTH WITH THE NORTH
REMAINING WITH CLOUDS A BIT LONGER BUT THIS WILL CREATE A HEATING
DIFFERENTIAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS. WITH
THIS...EXPECTING SEVERE CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 21Z
AND MOST LIKELY FROM THE WEST. IT IS UNLIKELY THAT LIKE THE HRRR
SUGGESTS THAT THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY BUT
RATHER MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE UPDATED THE POPS TO SUGGEST
THIS. WILL STILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES IN PLACE AS
WELL. AT THIS TIME...WARMING CONTINUES IN THE SOUTH AND CONVECTION
IN WESTERN KY IS NEAR OR BEGINNING CONVECTIVE INITIATION. WITH
THIS DEVELOPMENT...WOULD EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE EAST WITH
THE BEST ENVIRONMENT CONVERGING OVER THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND
SOUTH. THEN HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THE LOW OFF TO THE WEST WILL
FINALLY TRACK EAST WITH A POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF TONIGHT AND MOVING INTO THE AREA. ALL PRECIP...AND
ASSOCIATED ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN END AFTER 06Z.

THE MID LEVEL WAVE WILL BE DEPARTING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY
ON SUNDAY...WITH THE REGION IN NW CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC. THE SFC LOW WILL ALSO BE DEPARTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST...BUT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER
NEAR 850 MB FOR SOME FLAT CU WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON ON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST WILL HAVE MEANDER
BACK CLOSER TO THE NORTHEAST US COAST BY THE START OF THE PERIOD
AND REMAIN THERE INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY GETTING
KICKED EAST BY A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING INTO CENTRAL
CANADA. ONE DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
THIS SHOULD BRING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CU TO THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY THE EAST ALONG WITH A SPRINKLE OR A STRAY SHOWER. ONCE
THIS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST...A PERIOD OF HEIGHT RISES AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO EARLY ON WED. THIS SHOULD
YIELD DRY WEATHER FROM LATE MON EVENING THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. THERE ARE RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES AND INCONSISTENCIES DURING THIS
PERIOD...HOWEVER...WITH THE 12Z GFS TAKING A NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH AT MIDWEEK WHILE THE GFS TAKES A MID LEVEL
WAVE TO OUR SOUTH. DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THE GFS
BUILDS MID LEVEL RIDGING TOWARD THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH
CORRESPONDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS YIELDS DRY
AND WARM WEATHER DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...IF IT WERE
TO VERIFY. BUT...THE 12Z ECMWF HAS MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE
SHORTWAVES FROM MID WEEK INTO EARLY ON FRIDAY...AND DEVELOPS AND
TAKES A CLOSED SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AND THEN EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE APPALACHIANS AND THEN TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
THU NIGHT. THIS WOULD BE A WETTER...CLOUDIER...AND COLDER SCENARIO
FROM MIDWEEK...WED INTO THU NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER TO END THE
PERIOD.

GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS...WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
MODEL BLEND WHICH IS MORE OR LESS MIDDLE OF THE ROAD. THIS HAVE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FROM WED INTO THU
NIGHT. THIS ALSO WAS A COLDER FORECAST FOR MAX TEMPS IN PARTICULAR
FOR THE PERIOD FROM WED INTO FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE SHOWERS THAT HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS MORNING HAS MOVED NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA BUT IFR
AND BELOW CIGS AND VIS REMAIN AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN THE TAFS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AS WARM FRONT SLOWLY NUDGES
NORTH...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN THE SOUTH AS
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN BELOW FIELD MINS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THUNDER NEAR
EACH STATION THROUGH 06Z. AFTERWARD...LOW CIGS AND VIS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER




000
FXUS63 KJKL 251956
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
356 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SOME CLEARING SKIES IN
THE SOUTH AND SHOWERS MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO OHIO. WENT
A BIT SLOWER ON ERODING CLOUDS IN THE SOUTH WITH THE NORTH
REMAINING WITH CLOUDS A BIT LONGER BUT THIS WILL CREATE A HEATING
DIFFERENTIAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS. WITH
THIS...EXPECTING SEVERE CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 21Z
AND MOST LIKELY FROM THE WEST. IT IS UNLIKELY THAT LIKE THE HRRR
SUGGESTS THAT THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY BUT
RATHER MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE UPDATED THE POPS TO SUGGEST
THIS. WILL STILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES IN PLACE AS
WELL. AT THIS TIME...WARMING CONTINUES IN THE SOUTH AND CONVECTION
IN WESTERN KY IS NEAR OR BEGINNING CONVECTIVE INITIATION. WITH
THIS DEVELOPMENT...WOULD EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE EAST WITH
THE BEST ENVIRONMENT CONVERGING OVER THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND
SOUTH. THEN HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THE LOW OFF TO THE WEST WILL
FINALLY TRACK EAST WITH A POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF TONIGHT AND MOVING INTO THE AREA. ALL PRECIP...AND
ASSOCIATED ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN END AFTER 06Z.

THE MID LEVEL WAVE WILL BE DEPARTING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY
ON SUNDAY...WITH THE REGION IN NW CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC. THE SFC LOW WILL ALSO BE DEPARTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST...BUT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER
NEAR 850 MB FOR SOME FLAT CU WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON ON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST WILL HAVE MEANDER
BACK CLOSER TO THE NORTHEAST US COAST BY THE START OF THE PERIOD
AND REMAIN THERE INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY GETTING
KICKED EAST BY A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING INTO CENTRAL
CANADA. ONE DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
THIS SHOULD BRING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CU TO THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY THE EAST ALONG WITH A SPRINKLE OR A STRAY SHOWER. ONCE
THIS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST...A PERIOD OF HEIGHT RISES AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO EARLY ON WED. THIS SHOULD
YIELD DRY WEATHER FROM LATE MON EVENING THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. THERE ARE RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES AND INCONSISTENCIES DURING THIS
PERIOD...HOWEVER...WITH THE 12Z GFS TAKING A NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH AT MIDWEEK WHILE THE GFS TAKES A MID LEVEL
WAVE TO OUR SOUTH. DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THE GFS
BUILDS MID LEVEL RIDGING TOWARD THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH
CORRESPONDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS YIELDS DRY
AND WARM WEATHER DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...IF IT WERE
TO VERIFY. BUT...THE 12Z ECMWF HAS MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE
SHORTWAVES FROM MID WEEK INTO EARLY ON FRIDAY...AND DEVELOPS AND
TAKES A CLOSED SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AND THEN EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE APPALACHIANS AND THEN TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
THU NIGHT. THIS WOULD BE A WETTER...CLOUDIER...AND COLDER SCENARIO
FROM MIDWEEK...WED INTO THU NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER TO END THE
PERIOD.

GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS...WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
MODEL BLEND WHICH IS MORE OR LESS MIDDLE OF THE ROAD. THIS HAVE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FROM WED INTO THU
NIGHT. THIS ALSO WAS A COLDER FORECAST FOR MAX TEMPS IN PARTICULAR
FOR THE PERIOD FROM WED INTO FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE SHOWERS THAT HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS MORNING HAS MOVED NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA BUT IFR
AND BELOW CIGS AND VIS REMAIN AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN THE TAFS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AS WARM FRONT SLOWLY NUDGES
NORTH...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN THE SOUTH AS
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN BELOW FIELD MINS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THUNDER NEAR
EACH STATION THROUGH 06Z. AFTERWARD...LOW CIGS AND VIS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER





000
FXUS63 KJKL 251956
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
356 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SOME CLEARING SKIES IN
THE SOUTH AND SHOWERS MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO OHIO. WENT
A BIT SLOWER ON ERODING CLOUDS IN THE SOUTH WITH THE NORTH
REMAINING WITH CLOUDS A BIT LONGER BUT THIS WILL CREATE A HEATING
DIFFERENTIAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS. WITH
THIS...EXPECTING SEVERE CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 21Z
AND MOST LIKELY FROM THE WEST. IT IS UNLIKELY THAT LIKE THE HRRR
SUGGESTS THAT THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY BUT
RATHER MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE UPDATED THE POPS TO SUGGEST
THIS. WILL STILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES IN PLACE AS
WELL. AT THIS TIME...WARMING CONTINUES IN THE SOUTH AND CONVECTION
IN WESTERN KY IS NEAR OR BEGINNING CONVECTIVE INITIATION. WITH
THIS DEVELOPMENT...WOULD EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE EAST WITH
THE BEST ENVIRONMENT CONVERGING OVER THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND
SOUTH. THEN HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THE LOW OFF TO THE WEST WILL
FINALLY TRACK EAST WITH A POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF TONIGHT AND MOVING INTO THE AREA. ALL PRECIP...AND
ASSOCIATED ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN END AFTER 06Z.

THE MID LEVEL WAVE WILL BE DEPARTING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY
ON SUNDAY...WITH THE REGION IN NW CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC. THE SFC LOW WILL ALSO BE DEPARTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST...BUT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER
NEAR 850 MB FOR SOME FLAT CU WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON ON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST WILL HAVE MEANDER
BACK CLOSER TO THE NORTHEAST US COAST BY THE START OF THE PERIOD
AND REMAIN THERE INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY GETTING
KICKED EAST BY A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING INTO CENTRAL
CANADA. ONE DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
THIS SHOULD BRING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CU TO THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY THE EAST ALONG WITH A SPRINKLE OR A STRAY SHOWER. ONCE
THIS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST...A PERIOD OF HEIGHT RISES AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO EARLY ON WED. THIS SHOULD
YIELD DRY WEATHER FROM LATE MON EVENING THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. THERE ARE RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES AND INCONSISTENCIES DURING THIS
PERIOD...HOWEVER...WITH THE 12Z GFS TAKING A NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH AT MIDWEEK WHILE THE GFS TAKES A MID LEVEL
WAVE TO OUR SOUTH. DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THE GFS
BUILDS MID LEVEL RIDGING TOWARD THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH
CORRESPONDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS YIELDS DRY
AND WARM WEATHER DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...IF IT WERE
TO VERIFY. BUT...THE 12Z ECMWF HAS MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE
SHORTWAVES FROM MID WEEK INTO EARLY ON FRIDAY...AND DEVELOPS AND
TAKES A CLOSED SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AND THEN EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE APPALACHIANS AND THEN TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
THU NIGHT. THIS WOULD BE A WETTER...CLOUDIER...AND COLDER SCENARIO
FROM MIDWEEK...WED INTO THU NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER TO END THE
PERIOD.

GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS...WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
MODEL BLEND WHICH IS MORE OR LESS MIDDLE OF THE ROAD. THIS HAVE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FROM WED INTO THU
NIGHT. THIS ALSO WAS A COLDER FORECAST FOR MAX TEMPS IN PARTICULAR
FOR THE PERIOD FROM WED INTO FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE SHOWERS THAT HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS MORNING HAS MOVED NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA BUT IFR
AND BELOW CIGS AND VIS REMAIN AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN THE TAFS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AS WARM FRONT SLOWLY NUDGES
NORTH...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN THE SOUTH AS
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN BELOW FIELD MINS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THUNDER NEAR
EACH STATION THROUGH 06Z. AFTERWARD...LOW CIGS AND VIS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER





000
FXUS63 KJKL 251956
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
356 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SOME CLEARING SKIES IN
THE SOUTH AND SHOWERS MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO OHIO. WENT
A BIT SLOWER ON ERODING CLOUDS IN THE SOUTH WITH THE NORTH
REMAINING WITH CLOUDS A BIT LONGER BUT THIS WILL CREATE A HEATING
DIFFERENTIAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS. WITH
THIS...EXPECTING SEVERE CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 21Z
AND MOST LIKELY FROM THE WEST. IT IS UNLIKELY THAT LIKE THE HRRR
SUGGESTS THAT THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY BUT
RATHER MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE UPDATED THE POPS TO SUGGEST
THIS. WILL STILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES IN PLACE AS
WELL. AT THIS TIME...WARMING CONTINUES IN THE SOUTH AND CONVECTION
IN WESTERN KY IS NEAR OR BEGINNING CONVECTIVE INITIATION. WITH
THIS DEVELOPMENT...WOULD EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE EAST WITH
THE BEST ENVIRONMENT CONVERGING OVER THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND
SOUTH. THEN HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THE LOW OFF TO THE WEST WILL
FINALLY TRACK EAST WITH A POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF TONIGHT AND MOVING INTO THE AREA. ALL PRECIP...AND
ASSOCIATED ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN END AFTER 06Z.

THE MID LEVEL WAVE WILL BE DEPARTING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY
ON SUNDAY...WITH THE REGION IN NW CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC. THE SFC LOW WILL ALSO BE DEPARTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST...BUT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER
NEAR 850 MB FOR SOME FLAT CU WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON ON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST WILL HAVE MEANDER
BACK CLOSER TO THE NORTHEAST US COAST BY THE START OF THE PERIOD
AND REMAIN THERE INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY GETTING
KICKED EAST BY A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING INTO CENTRAL
CANADA. ONE DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
THIS SHOULD BRING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CU TO THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY THE EAST ALONG WITH A SPRINKLE OR A STRAY SHOWER. ONCE
THIS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST...A PERIOD OF HEIGHT RISES AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO EARLY ON WED. THIS SHOULD
YIELD DRY WEATHER FROM LATE MON EVENING THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. THERE ARE RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES AND INCONSISTENCIES DURING THIS
PERIOD...HOWEVER...WITH THE 12Z GFS TAKING A NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH AT MIDWEEK WHILE THE GFS TAKES A MID LEVEL
WAVE TO OUR SOUTH. DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THE GFS
BUILDS MID LEVEL RIDGING TOWARD THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH
CORRESPONDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS YIELDS DRY
AND WARM WEATHER DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...IF IT WERE
TO VERIFY. BUT...THE 12Z ECMWF HAS MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE
SHORTWAVES FROM MID WEEK INTO EARLY ON FRIDAY...AND DEVELOPS AND
TAKES A CLOSED SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AND THEN EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE APPALACHIANS AND THEN TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
THU NIGHT. THIS WOULD BE A WETTER...CLOUDIER...AND COLDER SCENARIO
FROM MIDWEEK...WED INTO THU NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER TO END THE
PERIOD.

GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS...WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
MODEL BLEND WHICH IS MORE OR LESS MIDDLE OF THE ROAD. THIS HAVE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FROM WED INTO THU
NIGHT. THIS ALSO WAS A COLDER FORECAST FOR MAX TEMPS IN PARTICULAR
FOR THE PERIOD FROM WED INTO FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE SHOWERS THAT HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS MORNING HAS MOVED NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA BUT IFR
AND BELOW CIGS AND VIS REMAIN AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN THE TAFS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AS WARM FRONT SLOWLY NUDGES
NORTH...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN THE SOUTH AS
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN BELOW FIELD MINS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THUNDER NEAR
EACH STATION THROUGH 06Z. AFTERWARD...LOW CIGS AND VIS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER




000
FXUS63 KJKL 251829
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
229 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

ISSUED AN UPDATE TO FURTHER ADJUST THE POPS AND SKY COVER BASED
ON CURRENT TRENDS. WENT A BIT SLOWER ON ERODING CLOUDS IN THE
SOUTH WITH THE NORTH REMAINING WITH CLOUDS BUT THIS WILL CREATE A
HEATING DIFFERENTIAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS. WITH THIS...EXPECTING SEVERE CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA AFTER 21Z AND MOST LIKELY FROM THE WEST. IT IS UNLIKELY THAT
LIKE THE HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY. HAVE UPDATED THE POPS TO SUGGEST THIS. WILL STILL KEEP
THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES IN PLACE AS WELL. AT THIS
TIME...WARMING CONTINUES IN THE SOUTH AND CONVECTION IN WESTERN KY
IS NEAR OR BEGINNING CONVECTIVE INITIATION. WITH THIS
DEVELOPMENT...WOULD EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE EAST WITH THE
BEST ENVIRONMENT CONVERGING OVER THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND SOUTH.
A NEW ZFP HAS BEEN SENT OUT AND NEW GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1130 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE A SWATH OF SHOWERS
MOVING THROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. AT THIS
TIME...THE WARM FRONT IS DEVELOPING AND SLOWLY MOVING NORTH AND IS
POSITIONED JUST NORTH ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER. CLOUD COVER AT THIS
TIME IS QUITE EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH...SOME PEAKS OF
CLEARING ARE OCCURRING TO THE WEST AND A FEW PEAKS TO THE SOUTH.
HOWEVER...ONGOING CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST SEEMS TO BE
KEEPING CLOUD COVER STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE TIMED A BIT OF CLEARING TO OCCUR OVER SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY BUT IF THE CLOUD COVER MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH
CONTINUES...SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE DRASTICALLY LIMITED INTO
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATER THIS EVENING...THE HRRR HINTS AT
AN MCS DEVELOPMENT AND MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA ALONG
WITH THE SURFACE LOW BY 00Z TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...THE EVENT MAY
BE TRANSITIONING INTO A HYDRO EVENT. HAVE UPDATED THE ZFP TO TIME
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING AND THE PROGRESSION OF
THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE DAY. IT GOES WITHOUT SAYING THAT THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WILL SAY ALOT ABOUT WHAT TRANSPIRES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 13 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

BLENDED EARLY MORNING OBS INTO THE FORECAST. NO SUBSTANTIAL
CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS IN STORE...WITH EVENTS JUST BEGINNING TO
UNFOLD. AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NE OVER
THE REGION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...IT IS BEHIND SCHEDULE AS BASED
ON THE 00Z MODELS...WITH A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER MS AND AL
POSSIBLY FOILING THE OUTCOME. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS IT
WILL STILL HAPPEN...BUT MAY BE MORE FOCUSED ON OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES.

ONCE THIS PASSES...IT WILL BE A WAITING GAME FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS OUR AREA. IT STILL APPEARS THERE WILL BE LARGE SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY PRESENT IN OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...WITH WEAKER
AND MORE ELEVATED INSTABILITY FURTHER NORTHEAST. SHEAR WILL BE
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. DRY MID
LEVEL AIR IS ALSO EXPECTED IN OUR SW. THIS WILL PRESENT A THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER OUR SW...WITH SUPER CELLS POSSIBLY
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS...AND A SECONDARY THREAT OF
TORNADOES. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS ALSO A CONCERN WITH TRAINING OF
CELLS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WHERE THIS MAY SET UP IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS LIKELY WOULD NOT ARISE UNTIL THIS
EVENING...AND HAVE OPTED TO LET DAY SHIFT EXAMINE THE 12Z RUN
BEFORE MAKING A DECISION ON A FFA.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
EAST THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL END ON
SUNDAY MORNING AND CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP DURING THE DAY FROM NW TO
SE AS DRY AIR MOVES IN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED. THE PERIOD IS
SET TO BEGIN WITH A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OUT OF THE
NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PATTERN
IS THEN FORECAST TO CHANGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS BOTH
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER SYSTEMS MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND GULF COAST REGIONS. THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BE THE STRONGER OF THE TWO...AND THEREFORE WOULD HAVE
TO GREATER INFLUENCE ON AREA WEATHER MID WEEK. AS IT STANDS...A
ROUGHLY 60 40 BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS WAS USED TO CREATE
THE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD. THE SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BRING MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHWARD AND PHASE WITH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS LOW. THE GFS DOES DIFFER SLIGHTLY FROM THE
ECMWF MODEL DURING THIS PERIOD...AS ITS NORTHERN STREAM LOW PUSHES
ON EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND...AS OPPOSED TO PHASING WITH THE
SOUTHERN SYSTEM...AS THE ECMWF IS DEPICTING. THAT BEING
SAID...THIS IS WHERE THE USUALLY MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF MODEL
SOLUTION WAS FAVORED. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE DIFFERING MODEL
SOLUTIONS...DECIDED TO STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS...WITH 40 BEING THE HIGH END DURING THE WET PERIOD. FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE DRY AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER
SYSTEM EXITS TO OUR EAST AND ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.

TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
AND THE FACT THAT THIS WEEKENDS TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL DUE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. WHAT
THIS AMOUNTS TO IS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STARTING OFF BEHIND THE
EIGHT BALL TO START THE WEEK TEMPERATURE WISE...MAKING IT
DIFFICULT FOR THINGS TO WARM UP AS MUCH AS NORMAL DUE TO THE SHORT
BREAK BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE SHOWERS THAT HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS MORNING HAS MOVED NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA BUT IFR
AND BELOW CIGS AND VIS REMAIN AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN THE TAFS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AS WARM FRONT SLOWLY NUDGES
NORTH...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN THE SOUTH AS
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN BELOW FEILD MINS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THUNDER NEAR
EACH STATION THROUGH 06Z. AFTERWARD...LOW CIGS AND VIS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER





000
FXUS63 KJKL 251829
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
229 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

ISSUED AN UPDATE TO FURTHER ADJUST THE POPS AND SKY COVER BASED
ON CURRENT TRENDS. WENT A BIT SLOWER ON ERODING CLOUDS IN THE
SOUTH WITH THE NORTH REMAINING WITH CLOUDS BUT THIS WILL CREATE A
HEATING DIFFERENTIAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS. WITH THIS...EXPECTING SEVERE CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA AFTER 21Z AND MOST LIKELY FROM THE WEST. IT IS UNLIKELY THAT
LIKE THE HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY. HAVE UPDATED THE POPS TO SUGGEST THIS. WILL STILL KEEP
THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES IN PLACE AS WELL. AT THIS
TIME...WARMING CONTINUES IN THE SOUTH AND CONVECTION IN WESTERN KY
IS NEAR OR BEGINNING CONVECTIVE INITIATION. WITH THIS
DEVELOPMENT...WOULD EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE EAST WITH THE
BEST ENVIRONMENT CONVERGING OVER THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND SOUTH.
A NEW ZFP HAS BEEN SENT OUT AND NEW GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1130 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE A SWATH OF SHOWERS
MOVING THROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. AT THIS
TIME...THE WARM FRONT IS DEVELOPING AND SLOWLY MOVING NORTH AND IS
POSITIONED JUST NORTH ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER. CLOUD COVER AT THIS
TIME IS QUITE EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH...SOME PEAKS OF
CLEARING ARE OCCURRING TO THE WEST AND A FEW PEAKS TO THE SOUTH.
HOWEVER...ONGOING CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST SEEMS TO BE
KEEPING CLOUD COVER STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE TIMED A BIT OF CLEARING TO OCCUR OVER SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY BUT IF THE CLOUD COVER MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH
CONTINUES...SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE DRASTICALLY LIMITED INTO
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATER THIS EVENING...THE HRRR HINTS AT
AN MCS DEVELOPMENT AND MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA ALONG
WITH THE SURFACE LOW BY 00Z TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...THE EVENT MAY
BE TRANSITIONING INTO A HYDRO EVENT. HAVE UPDATED THE ZFP TO TIME
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING AND THE PROGRESSION OF
THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE DAY. IT GOES WITHOUT SAYING THAT THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WILL SAY ALOT ABOUT WHAT TRANSPIRES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 13 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

BLENDED EARLY MORNING OBS INTO THE FORECAST. NO SUBSTANTIAL
CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS IN STORE...WITH EVENTS JUST BEGINNING TO
UNFOLD. AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NE OVER
THE REGION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...IT IS BEHIND SCHEDULE AS BASED
ON THE 00Z MODELS...WITH A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER MS AND AL
POSSIBLY FOILING THE OUTCOME. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS IT
WILL STILL HAPPEN...BUT MAY BE MORE FOCUSED ON OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES.

ONCE THIS PASSES...IT WILL BE A WAITING GAME FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS OUR AREA. IT STILL APPEARS THERE WILL BE LARGE SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY PRESENT IN OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...WITH WEAKER
AND MORE ELEVATED INSTABILITY FURTHER NORTHEAST. SHEAR WILL BE
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. DRY MID
LEVEL AIR IS ALSO EXPECTED IN OUR SW. THIS WILL PRESENT A THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER OUR SW...WITH SUPER CELLS POSSIBLY
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS...AND A SECONDARY THREAT OF
TORNADOES. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS ALSO A CONCERN WITH TRAINING OF
CELLS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WHERE THIS MAY SET UP IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS LIKELY WOULD NOT ARISE UNTIL THIS
EVENING...AND HAVE OPTED TO LET DAY SHIFT EXAMINE THE 12Z RUN
BEFORE MAKING A DECISION ON A FFA.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
EAST THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL END ON
SUNDAY MORNING AND CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP DURING THE DAY FROM NW TO
SE AS DRY AIR MOVES IN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED. THE PERIOD IS
SET TO BEGIN WITH A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OUT OF THE
NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PATTERN
IS THEN FORECAST TO CHANGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS BOTH
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER SYSTEMS MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND GULF COAST REGIONS. THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BE THE STRONGER OF THE TWO...AND THEREFORE WOULD HAVE
TO GREATER INFLUENCE ON AREA WEATHER MID WEEK. AS IT STANDS...A
ROUGHLY 60 40 BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS WAS USED TO CREATE
THE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD. THE SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BRING MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHWARD AND PHASE WITH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS LOW. THE GFS DOES DIFFER SLIGHTLY FROM THE
ECMWF MODEL DURING THIS PERIOD...AS ITS NORTHERN STREAM LOW PUSHES
ON EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND...AS OPPOSED TO PHASING WITH THE
SOUTHERN SYSTEM...AS THE ECMWF IS DEPICTING. THAT BEING
SAID...THIS IS WHERE THE USUALLY MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF MODEL
SOLUTION WAS FAVORED. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE DIFFERING MODEL
SOLUTIONS...DECIDED TO STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS...WITH 40 BEING THE HIGH END DURING THE WET PERIOD. FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE DRY AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER
SYSTEM EXITS TO OUR EAST AND ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.

TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
AND THE FACT THAT THIS WEEKENDS TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL DUE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. WHAT
THIS AMOUNTS TO IS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STARTING OFF BEHIND THE
EIGHT BALL TO START THE WEEK TEMPERATURE WISE...MAKING IT
DIFFICULT FOR THINGS TO WARM UP AS MUCH AS NORMAL DUE TO THE SHORT
BREAK BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE SHOWERS THAT HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS MORNING HAS MOVED NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA BUT IFR
AND BELOW CIGS AND VIS REMAIN AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN THE TAFS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AS WARM FRONT SLOWLY NUDGES
NORTH...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN THE SOUTH AS
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN BELOW FEILD MINS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THUNDER NEAR
EACH STATION THROUGH 06Z. AFTERWARD...LOW CIGS AND VIS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER




000
FXUS63 KJKL 251829
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
229 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

ISSUED AN UPDATE TO FURTHER ADJUST THE POPS AND SKY COVER BASED
ON CURRENT TRENDS. WENT A BIT SLOWER ON ERODING CLOUDS IN THE
SOUTH WITH THE NORTH REMAINING WITH CLOUDS BUT THIS WILL CREATE A
HEATING DIFFERENTIAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS. WITH THIS...EXPECTING SEVERE CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA AFTER 21Z AND MOST LIKELY FROM THE WEST. IT IS UNLIKELY THAT
LIKE THE HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY. HAVE UPDATED THE POPS TO SUGGEST THIS. WILL STILL KEEP
THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES IN PLACE AS WELL. AT THIS
TIME...WARMING CONTINUES IN THE SOUTH AND CONVECTION IN WESTERN KY
IS NEAR OR BEGINNING CONVECTIVE INITIATION. WITH THIS
DEVELOPMENT...WOULD EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE EAST WITH THE
BEST ENVIRONMENT CONVERGING OVER THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND SOUTH.
A NEW ZFP HAS BEEN SENT OUT AND NEW GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1130 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE A SWATH OF SHOWERS
MOVING THROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. AT THIS
TIME...THE WARM FRONT IS DEVELOPING AND SLOWLY MOVING NORTH AND IS
POSITIONED JUST NORTH ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER. CLOUD COVER AT THIS
TIME IS QUITE EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH...SOME PEAKS OF
CLEARING ARE OCCURRING TO THE WEST AND A FEW PEAKS TO THE SOUTH.
HOWEVER...ONGOING CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST SEEMS TO BE
KEEPING CLOUD COVER STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE TIMED A BIT OF CLEARING TO OCCUR OVER SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY BUT IF THE CLOUD COVER MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH
CONTINUES...SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE DRASTICALLY LIMITED INTO
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATER THIS EVENING...THE HRRR HINTS AT
AN MCS DEVELOPMENT AND MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA ALONG
WITH THE SURFACE LOW BY 00Z TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...THE EVENT MAY
BE TRANSITIONING INTO A HYDRO EVENT. HAVE UPDATED THE ZFP TO TIME
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING AND THE PROGRESSION OF
THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE DAY. IT GOES WITHOUT SAYING THAT THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WILL SAY ALOT ABOUT WHAT TRANSPIRES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 13 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

BLENDED EARLY MORNING OBS INTO THE FORECAST. NO SUBSTANTIAL
CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS IN STORE...WITH EVENTS JUST BEGINNING TO
UNFOLD. AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NE OVER
THE REGION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...IT IS BEHIND SCHEDULE AS BASED
ON THE 00Z MODELS...WITH A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER MS AND AL
POSSIBLY FOILING THE OUTCOME. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS IT
WILL STILL HAPPEN...BUT MAY BE MORE FOCUSED ON OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES.

ONCE THIS PASSES...IT WILL BE A WAITING GAME FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS OUR AREA. IT STILL APPEARS THERE WILL BE LARGE SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY PRESENT IN OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...WITH WEAKER
AND MORE ELEVATED INSTABILITY FURTHER NORTHEAST. SHEAR WILL BE
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. DRY MID
LEVEL AIR IS ALSO EXPECTED IN OUR SW. THIS WILL PRESENT A THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER OUR SW...WITH SUPER CELLS POSSIBLY
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS...AND A SECONDARY THREAT OF
TORNADOES. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS ALSO A CONCERN WITH TRAINING OF
CELLS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WHERE THIS MAY SET UP IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS LIKELY WOULD NOT ARISE UNTIL THIS
EVENING...AND HAVE OPTED TO LET DAY SHIFT EXAMINE THE 12Z RUN
BEFORE MAKING A DECISION ON A FFA.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
EAST THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL END ON
SUNDAY MORNING AND CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP DURING THE DAY FROM NW TO
SE AS DRY AIR MOVES IN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED. THE PERIOD IS
SET TO BEGIN WITH A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OUT OF THE
NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PATTERN
IS THEN FORECAST TO CHANGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS BOTH
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER SYSTEMS MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND GULF COAST REGIONS. THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BE THE STRONGER OF THE TWO...AND THEREFORE WOULD HAVE
TO GREATER INFLUENCE ON AREA WEATHER MID WEEK. AS IT STANDS...A
ROUGHLY 60 40 BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS WAS USED TO CREATE
THE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD. THE SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BRING MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHWARD AND PHASE WITH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS LOW. THE GFS DOES DIFFER SLIGHTLY FROM THE
ECMWF MODEL DURING THIS PERIOD...AS ITS NORTHERN STREAM LOW PUSHES
ON EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND...AS OPPOSED TO PHASING WITH THE
SOUTHERN SYSTEM...AS THE ECMWF IS DEPICTING. THAT BEING
SAID...THIS IS WHERE THE USUALLY MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF MODEL
SOLUTION WAS FAVORED. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE DIFFERING MODEL
SOLUTIONS...DECIDED TO STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS...WITH 40 BEING THE HIGH END DURING THE WET PERIOD. FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE DRY AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER
SYSTEM EXITS TO OUR EAST AND ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.

TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
AND THE FACT THAT THIS WEEKENDS TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL DUE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. WHAT
THIS AMOUNTS TO IS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STARTING OFF BEHIND THE
EIGHT BALL TO START THE WEEK TEMPERATURE WISE...MAKING IT
DIFFICULT FOR THINGS TO WARM UP AS MUCH AS NORMAL DUE TO THE SHORT
BREAK BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE SHOWERS THAT HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS MORNING HAS MOVED NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA BUT IFR
AND BELOW CIGS AND VIS REMAIN AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN THE TAFS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AS WARM FRONT SLOWLY NUDGES
NORTH...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN THE SOUTH AS
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN BELOW FEILD MINS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THUNDER NEAR
EACH STATION THROUGH 06Z. AFTERWARD...LOW CIGS AND VIS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER





000
FXUS63 KJKL 251530
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1130 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE A SWATH OF SHOWERS
MOVING THROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. AT THIS
TIME...THE WARM FRONT IS DEVELOPING AND SLOWLY MOVING NORTH AND IS
POSITIONED JUST NORTH ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER. CLOUD COVER AT THIS
TIME IS QUITE EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH...SOME PEAKS OF
CLEARING ARE OCCURRING TO THE WEST AND A FEW PEAKS TO THE SOUTH.
HOWEVER...ONGOING CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST SEEMS TO BE
KEEPING CLOUD COVER STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE TIMED A BIT OF CLEARING TO OCCUR OVER SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY BUT IF THE CLOUD COVER MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH
CONTINUES...SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE DRASTICALLY LIMITED INTO
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATER THIS EVENING...THE HRRR HINTS AT
AN MCS DEVELOPMENT AND MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA ALONG
WITH THE SURFACE LOW BY 00Z TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...THE EVENT MAY
BE TRANSITIONING INTO A HYDRO EVENT. HAVE UPDATED THE ZFP TO TIME
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING AND THE PROGRESSION OF
THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE DAY. IT GOES WITHOUT SAYING THAT THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WILL SAY ALOT ABOUT WHAT TRANSPIRES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 13 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

BLENDED EARLY MORNING OBS INTO THE FORECAST. NO SUBSTANTIAL
CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS IN STORE...WITH EVENTS JUST BEGINNING TO
UNFOLD. AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NE OVER
THE REGION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...IT IS BEHIND SCHEDULE AS BASED
ON THE 00Z MODELS...WITH A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER MS AND AL
POSSIBLY FOILING THE OUTCOME. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS IT
WILL STILL HAPPEN...BUT MAY BE MORE FOCUSED ON OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES.

ONCE THIS PASSES...IT WILL BE A WAITING GAME FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS OUR AREA. IT STILL APPEARS THERE WILL BE LARGE SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY PRESENT IN OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...WITH WEAKER
AND MORE ELEVATED INSTABILITY FURTHER NORTHEAST. SHEAR WILL BE
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. DRY MID
LEVEL AIR IS ALSO EXPECTED IN OUR SW. THIS WILL PRESENT A THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER OUR SW...WITH SUPER CELLS POSSIBLY
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS...AND A SECONDARY THREAT OF
TORNADOES. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS ALSO A CONCERN WITH TRAINING OF
CELLS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WHERE THIS MAY SET UP IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS LIKELY WOULD NOT ARISE UNTIL THIS
EVENING...AND HAVE OPTED TO LET DAY SHIFT EXAMINE THE 12Z RUN
BEFORE MAKING A DECISION ON A FFA.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
EAST THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL END ON
SUNDAY MORNING AND CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP DURING THE DAY FROM NW TO
SE AS DRY AIR MOVES IN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED. THE PERIOD IS
SET TO BEGIN WITH A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OUT OF THE
NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PATTERN
IS THEN FORECAST TO CHANGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS BOTH
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER SYSTEMS MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND GULF COAST REGIONS. THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BE THE STRONGER OF THE TWO...AND THEREFORE WOULD HAVE
TO GREATER INFLUENCE ON AREA WEATHER MID WEEK. AS IT STANDS...A
ROUGHLY 60 40 BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS WAS USED TO CREATE
THE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD. THE SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BRING MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHWARD AND PHASE WITH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS LOW. THE GFS DOES DIFFER SLIGHTLY FROM THE
ECMWF MODEL DURING THIS PERIOD...AS ITS NORTHERN STREAM LOW PUSHES
ON EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND...AS OPPOSED TO PHASING WITH THE
SOUTHERN SYSTEM...AS THE ECMWF IS DEPICTING. THAT BEING
SAID...THIS IS WHERE THE USUALLY MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF MODEL
SOLUTION WAS FAVORED. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE DIFFERING MODEL
SOLUTIONS...DECIDED TO STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS...WITH 40 BEING THE HIGH END DURING THE WET PERIOD. FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE DRY AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER
SYSTEM EXITS TO OUR EAST AND ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.

TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
AND THE FACT THAT THIS WEEKENDS TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL DUE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. WHAT
THIS AMOUNTS TO IS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STARTING OFF BEHIND THE
EIGHT BALL TO START THE WEEK TEMPERATURE WISE...MAKING IT
DIFFICULT FOR THINGS TO WARM UP AS MUCH AS NORMAL DUE TO THE SHORT
BREAK BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 813 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

ALTHOUGH SHOWERS WERE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...VFR CONDITIONS
WERE STILL PRESENT AT MOST LOCATIONS AT TAF ISSUANCE. THE
EXCEPTION WAS IN THE FAR SW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND KEKQ
AND KSME...WHERE MVFR CEILINGS HAD DEVELOPED. THE MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SW TO NE THIS MORNING...WITH SOME
IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...LARGELY MVFR CAN BE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST...EXCEPT FOR IFR FROM AROUND THE MOUNTAIN
PARKWAY NORTHWARD. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FOR A TIME
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVENING. SOME
OF THESE MAY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS. A COLD FRONT WILL
SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...AND PRECIPITATION WILL START
TO TAPER OFF LATE. HOWEVER...MVFR AND LOCALIZED IFR WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL





000
FXUS63 KJKL 251530
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1130 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE A SWATH OF SHOWERS
MOVING THROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. AT THIS
TIME...THE WARM FRONT IS DEVELOPING AND SLOWLY MOVING NORTH AND IS
POSITIONED JUST NORTH ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER. CLOUD COVER AT THIS
TIME IS QUITE EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH...SOME PEAKS OF
CLEARING ARE OCCURRING TO THE WEST AND A FEW PEAKS TO THE SOUTH.
HOWEVER...ONGOING CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST SEEMS TO BE
KEEPING CLOUD COVER STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE TIMED A BIT OF CLEARING TO OCCUR OVER SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY BUT IF THE CLOUD COVER MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH
CONTINUES...SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE DRASTICALLY LIMITED INTO
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATER THIS EVENING...THE HRRR HINTS AT
AN MCS DEVELOPMENT AND MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA ALONG
WITH THE SURFACE LOW BY 00Z TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...THE EVENT MAY
BE TRANSITIONING INTO A HYDRO EVENT. HAVE UPDATED THE ZFP TO TIME
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING AND THE PROGRESSION OF
THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE DAY. IT GOES WITHOUT SAYING THAT THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WILL SAY ALOT ABOUT WHAT TRANSPIRES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 13 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

BLENDED EARLY MORNING OBS INTO THE FORECAST. NO SUBSTANTIAL
CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS IN STORE...WITH EVENTS JUST BEGINNING TO
UNFOLD. AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NE OVER
THE REGION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...IT IS BEHIND SCHEDULE AS BASED
ON THE 00Z MODELS...WITH A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER MS AND AL
POSSIBLY FOILING THE OUTCOME. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS IT
WILL STILL HAPPEN...BUT MAY BE MORE FOCUSED ON OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES.

ONCE THIS PASSES...IT WILL BE A WAITING GAME FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS OUR AREA. IT STILL APPEARS THERE WILL BE LARGE SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY PRESENT IN OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...WITH WEAKER
AND MORE ELEVATED INSTABILITY FURTHER NORTHEAST. SHEAR WILL BE
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. DRY MID
LEVEL AIR IS ALSO EXPECTED IN OUR SW. THIS WILL PRESENT A THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER OUR SW...WITH SUPER CELLS POSSIBLY
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS...AND A SECONDARY THREAT OF
TORNADOES. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS ALSO A CONCERN WITH TRAINING OF
CELLS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WHERE THIS MAY SET UP IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS LIKELY WOULD NOT ARISE UNTIL THIS
EVENING...AND HAVE OPTED TO LET DAY SHIFT EXAMINE THE 12Z RUN
BEFORE MAKING A DECISION ON A FFA.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
EAST THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL END ON
SUNDAY MORNING AND CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP DURING THE DAY FROM NW TO
SE AS DRY AIR MOVES IN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED. THE PERIOD IS
SET TO BEGIN WITH A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OUT OF THE
NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PATTERN
IS THEN FORECAST TO CHANGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS BOTH
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER SYSTEMS MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND GULF COAST REGIONS. THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BE THE STRONGER OF THE TWO...AND THEREFORE WOULD HAVE
TO GREATER INFLUENCE ON AREA WEATHER MID WEEK. AS IT STANDS...A
ROUGHLY 60 40 BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS WAS USED TO CREATE
THE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD. THE SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BRING MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHWARD AND PHASE WITH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS LOW. THE GFS DOES DIFFER SLIGHTLY FROM THE
ECMWF MODEL DURING THIS PERIOD...AS ITS NORTHERN STREAM LOW PUSHES
ON EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND...AS OPPOSED TO PHASING WITH THE
SOUTHERN SYSTEM...AS THE ECMWF IS DEPICTING. THAT BEING
SAID...THIS IS WHERE THE USUALLY MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF MODEL
SOLUTION WAS FAVORED. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE DIFFERING MODEL
SOLUTIONS...DECIDED TO STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS...WITH 40 BEING THE HIGH END DURING THE WET PERIOD. FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE DRY AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER
SYSTEM EXITS TO OUR EAST AND ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.

TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
AND THE FACT THAT THIS WEEKENDS TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL DUE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. WHAT
THIS AMOUNTS TO IS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STARTING OFF BEHIND THE
EIGHT BALL TO START THE WEEK TEMPERATURE WISE...MAKING IT
DIFFICULT FOR THINGS TO WARM UP AS MUCH AS NORMAL DUE TO THE SHORT
BREAK BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 813 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

ALTHOUGH SHOWERS WERE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...VFR CONDITIONS
WERE STILL PRESENT AT MOST LOCATIONS AT TAF ISSUANCE. THE
EXCEPTION WAS IN THE FAR SW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND KEKQ
AND KSME...WHERE MVFR CEILINGS HAD DEVELOPED. THE MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SW TO NE THIS MORNING...WITH SOME
IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...LARGELY MVFR CAN BE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST...EXCEPT FOR IFR FROM AROUND THE MOUNTAIN
PARKWAY NORTHWARD. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FOR A TIME
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVENING. SOME
OF THESE MAY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS. A COLD FRONT WILL
SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...AND PRECIPITATION WILL START
TO TAPER OFF LATE. HOWEVER...MVFR AND LOCALIZED IFR WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL




000
FXUS63 KJKL 251530
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1130 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE A SWATH OF SHOWERS
MOVING THROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. AT THIS
TIME...THE WARM FRONT IS DEVELOPING AND SLOWLY MOVING NORTH AND IS
POSITIONED JUST NORTH ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER. CLOUD COVER AT THIS
TIME IS QUITE EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH...SOME PEAKS OF
CLEARING ARE OCCURRING TO THE WEST AND A FEW PEAKS TO THE SOUTH.
HOWEVER...ONGOING CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST SEEMS TO BE
KEEPING CLOUD COVER STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE TIMED A BIT OF CLEARING TO OCCUR OVER SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY BUT IF THE CLOUD COVER MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH
CONTINUES...SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE DRASTICALLY LIMITED INTO
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATER THIS EVENING...THE HRRR HINTS AT
AN MCS DEVELOPMENT AND MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA ALONG
WITH THE SURFACE LOW BY 00Z TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...THE EVENT MAY
BE TRANSITIONING INTO A HYDRO EVENT. HAVE UPDATED THE ZFP TO TIME
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING AND THE PROGRESSION OF
THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE DAY. IT GOES WITHOUT SAYING THAT THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WILL SAY ALOT ABOUT WHAT TRANSPIRES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 13 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

BLENDED EARLY MORNING OBS INTO THE FORECAST. NO SUBSTANTIAL
CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS IN STORE...WITH EVENTS JUST BEGINNING TO
UNFOLD. AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NE OVER
THE REGION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...IT IS BEHIND SCHEDULE AS BASED
ON THE 00Z MODELS...WITH A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER MS AND AL
POSSIBLY FOILING THE OUTCOME. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS IT
WILL STILL HAPPEN...BUT MAY BE MORE FOCUSED ON OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES.

ONCE THIS PASSES...IT WILL BE A WAITING GAME FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS OUR AREA. IT STILL APPEARS THERE WILL BE LARGE SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY PRESENT IN OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...WITH WEAKER
AND MORE ELEVATED INSTABILITY FURTHER NORTHEAST. SHEAR WILL BE
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. DRY MID
LEVEL AIR IS ALSO EXPECTED IN OUR SW. THIS WILL PRESENT A THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER OUR SW...WITH SUPER CELLS POSSIBLY
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS...AND A SECONDARY THREAT OF
TORNADOES. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS ALSO A CONCERN WITH TRAINING OF
CELLS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WHERE THIS MAY SET UP IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS LIKELY WOULD NOT ARISE UNTIL THIS
EVENING...AND HAVE OPTED TO LET DAY SHIFT EXAMINE THE 12Z RUN
BEFORE MAKING A DECISION ON A FFA.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
EAST THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL END ON
SUNDAY MORNING AND CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP DURING THE DAY FROM NW TO
SE AS DRY AIR MOVES IN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED. THE PERIOD IS
SET TO BEGIN WITH A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OUT OF THE
NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PATTERN
IS THEN FORECAST TO CHANGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS BOTH
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER SYSTEMS MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND GULF COAST REGIONS. THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BE THE STRONGER OF THE TWO...AND THEREFORE WOULD HAVE
TO GREATER INFLUENCE ON AREA WEATHER MID WEEK. AS IT STANDS...A
ROUGHLY 60 40 BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS WAS USED TO CREATE
THE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD. THE SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BRING MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHWARD AND PHASE WITH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS LOW. THE GFS DOES DIFFER SLIGHTLY FROM THE
ECMWF MODEL DURING THIS PERIOD...AS ITS NORTHERN STREAM LOW PUSHES
ON EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND...AS OPPOSED TO PHASING WITH THE
SOUTHERN SYSTEM...AS THE ECMWF IS DEPICTING. THAT BEING
SAID...THIS IS WHERE THE USUALLY MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF MODEL
SOLUTION WAS FAVORED. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE DIFFERING MODEL
SOLUTIONS...DECIDED TO STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS...WITH 40 BEING THE HIGH END DURING THE WET PERIOD. FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE DRY AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER
SYSTEM EXITS TO OUR EAST AND ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.

TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
AND THE FACT THAT THIS WEEKENDS TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL DUE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. WHAT
THIS AMOUNTS TO IS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STARTING OFF BEHIND THE
EIGHT BALL TO START THE WEEK TEMPERATURE WISE...MAKING IT
DIFFICULT FOR THINGS TO WARM UP AS MUCH AS NORMAL DUE TO THE SHORT
BREAK BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 813 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

ALTHOUGH SHOWERS WERE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...VFR CONDITIONS
WERE STILL PRESENT AT MOST LOCATIONS AT TAF ISSUANCE. THE
EXCEPTION WAS IN THE FAR SW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND KEKQ
AND KSME...WHERE MVFR CEILINGS HAD DEVELOPED. THE MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SW TO NE THIS MORNING...WITH SOME
IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...LARGELY MVFR CAN BE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST...EXCEPT FOR IFR FROM AROUND THE MOUNTAIN
PARKWAY NORTHWARD. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FOR A TIME
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVENING. SOME
OF THESE MAY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS. A COLD FRONT WILL
SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...AND PRECIPITATION WILL START
TO TAPER OFF LATE. HOWEVER...MVFR AND LOCALIZED IFR WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL





000
FXUS63 KJKL 251530
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1130 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE A SWATH OF SHOWERS
MOVING THROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. AT THIS
TIME...THE WARM FRONT IS DEVELOPING AND SLOWLY MOVING NORTH AND IS
POSITIONED JUST NORTH ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER. CLOUD COVER AT THIS
TIME IS QUITE EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH...SOME PEAKS OF
CLEARING ARE OCCURRING TO THE WEST AND A FEW PEAKS TO THE SOUTH.
HOWEVER...ONGOING CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST SEEMS TO BE
KEEPING CLOUD COVER STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE TIMED A BIT OF CLEARING TO OCCUR OVER SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY BUT IF THE CLOUD COVER MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH
CONTINUES...SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE DRASTICALLY LIMITED INTO
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATER THIS EVENING...THE HRRR HINTS AT
AN MCS DEVELOPMENT AND MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA ALONG
WITH THE SURFACE LOW BY 00Z TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...THE EVENT MAY
BE TRANSITIONING INTO A HYDRO EVENT. HAVE UPDATED THE ZFP TO TIME
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING AND THE PROGRESSION OF
THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE DAY. IT GOES WITHOUT SAYING THAT THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WILL SAY ALOT ABOUT WHAT TRANSPIRES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 13 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

BLENDED EARLY MORNING OBS INTO THE FORECAST. NO SUBSTANTIAL
CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS IN STORE...WITH EVENTS JUST BEGINNING TO
UNFOLD. AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NE OVER
THE REGION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...IT IS BEHIND SCHEDULE AS BASED
ON THE 00Z MODELS...WITH A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER MS AND AL
POSSIBLY FOILING THE OUTCOME. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS IT
WILL STILL HAPPEN...BUT MAY BE MORE FOCUSED ON OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES.

ONCE THIS PASSES...IT WILL BE A WAITING GAME FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS OUR AREA. IT STILL APPEARS THERE WILL BE LARGE SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY PRESENT IN OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...WITH WEAKER
AND MORE ELEVATED INSTABILITY FURTHER NORTHEAST. SHEAR WILL BE
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. DRY MID
LEVEL AIR IS ALSO EXPECTED IN OUR SW. THIS WILL PRESENT A THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER OUR SW...WITH SUPER CELLS POSSIBLY
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS...AND A SECONDARY THREAT OF
TORNADOES. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS ALSO A CONCERN WITH TRAINING OF
CELLS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WHERE THIS MAY SET UP IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS LIKELY WOULD NOT ARISE UNTIL THIS
EVENING...AND HAVE OPTED TO LET DAY SHIFT EXAMINE THE 12Z RUN
BEFORE MAKING A DECISION ON A FFA.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
EAST THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL END ON
SUNDAY MORNING AND CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP DURING THE DAY FROM NW TO
SE AS DRY AIR MOVES IN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED. THE PERIOD IS
SET TO BEGIN WITH A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OUT OF THE
NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PATTERN
IS THEN FORECAST TO CHANGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS BOTH
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER SYSTEMS MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND GULF COAST REGIONS. THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BE THE STRONGER OF THE TWO...AND THEREFORE WOULD HAVE
TO GREATER INFLUENCE ON AREA WEATHER MID WEEK. AS IT STANDS...A
ROUGHLY 60 40 BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS WAS USED TO CREATE
THE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD. THE SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BRING MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHWARD AND PHASE WITH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS LOW. THE GFS DOES DIFFER SLIGHTLY FROM THE
ECMWF MODEL DURING THIS PERIOD...AS ITS NORTHERN STREAM LOW PUSHES
ON EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND...AS OPPOSED TO PHASING WITH THE
SOUTHERN SYSTEM...AS THE ECMWF IS DEPICTING. THAT BEING
SAID...THIS IS WHERE THE USUALLY MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF MODEL
SOLUTION WAS FAVORED. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE DIFFERING MODEL
SOLUTIONS...DECIDED TO STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS...WITH 40 BEING THE HIGH END DURING THE WET PERIOD. FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE DRY AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER
SYSTEM EXITS TO OUR EAST AND ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.

TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
AND THE FACT THAT THIS WEEKENDS TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL DUE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. WHAT
THIS AMOUNTS TO IS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STARTING OFF BEHIND THE
EIGHT BALL TO START THE WEEK TEMPERATURE WISE...MAKING IT
DIFFICULT FOR THINGS TO WARM UP AS MUCH AS NORMAL DUE TO THE SHORT
BREAK BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 813 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

ALTHOUGH SHOWERS WERE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...VFR CONDITIONS
WERE STILL PRESENT AT MOST LOCATIONS AT TAF ISSUANCE. THE
EXCEPTION WAS IN THE FAR SW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND KEKQ
AND KSME...WHERE MVFR CEILINGS HAD DEVELOPED. THE MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SW TO NE THIS MORNING...WITH SOME
IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...LARGELY MVFR CAN BE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST...EXCEPT FOR IFR FROM AROUND THE MOUNTAIN
PARKWAY NORTHWARD. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FOR A TIME
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVENING. SOME
OF THESE MAY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS. A COLD FRONT WILL
SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...AND PRECIPITATION WILL START
TO TAPER OFF LATE. HOWEVER...MVFR AND LOCALIZED IFR WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL




000
FXUS63 KJKL 251213
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
813 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 13 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

BLENDED EARLY MORNING OBS INTO THE FORECAST. NO SUBSTANTIAL
CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS IN STORE...WITH EVENTS JUST BEGINNING TO
UNFOLD. AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NE OVER
THE REGION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...IT IS BEHIND SCHEDULE AS BASED
ON THE 00Z MODELS...WITH A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER MS AND AL
POSSIBLY FOILING THE OUTCOME. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS IT
WILL STILL HAPPEN...BUT MAY BE MORE FOCUSED ON OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES.

ONCE THIS PASSES...IT WILL BE A WAITING GAME FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS OUR AREA. IT STILL APPEARS THERE WILL BE LARGE SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY PRESENT IN OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...WITH WEAKER
AND MORE ELEVATED INSTABILITY FURTHER NORTHEAST. SHEAR WILL BE
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. DRY MID
LEVEL AIR IS ALSO EXPECTED IN OUR SW. THIS WILL PRESENT A THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER OUR SW...WITH SUPER CELLS POSSIBLY
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS...AND A SECONDARY THREAT OF
TORNADOES. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS ALSO A CONCERN WITH TRAINING OF
CELLS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WHERE THIS MAY SET UP IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS LIKELY WOULD NOT ARISE UNTIL THIS
EVENING...AND HAVE OPTED TO LET DAY SHIFT EXAMINE THE 12Z RUN
BEFORE MAKING A DECISION ON A FFA.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
EAST THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL END ON
SUNDAY MORNING AND CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP DURING THE DAY FROM NW TO
SE AS DRY AIR MOVES IN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED. THE PERIOD IS
SET TO BEGIN WITH A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OUT OF THE
NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PATTERN
IS THEN FORECAST TO CHANGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS BOTH
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER SYSTEMS MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND GULF COAST REGIONS. THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BE THE STRONGER OF THE TWO...AND THEREFORE WOULD HAVE
TO GREATER INFLUENCE ON AREA WEATHER MID WEEK. AS IT STANDS...A
ROUGHLY 60 40 BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS WAS USED TO CREATE
THE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD. THE SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BRING MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHWARD AND PHASE WITH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS LOW. THE GFS DOES DIFFER SLIGHTLY FROM THE
ECMWF MODEL DURING THIS PERIOD...AS ITS NORTHERN STREAM LOW PUSHES
ON EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND...AS OPPOSED TO PHASING WITH THE
SOUTHERN SYSTEM...AS THE ECMWF IS DEPICTING. THAT BEING
SAID...THIS IS WHERE THE USUALLY MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF MODEL
SOLUTION WAS FAVORED. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE DIFFERING MODEL
SOLUTIONS...DECIDED TO STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS...WITH 40 BEING THE HIGH END DURING THE WET PERIOD. FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE DRY AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER
SYSTEM EXITS TO OUR EAST AND ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.

TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
AND THE FACT THAT THIS WEEKENDS TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL DUE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. WHAT
THIS AMOUNTS TO IS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STARTING OFF BEHIND THE
EIGHT BALL TO START THE WEEK TEMPERATURE WISE...MAKING IT
DIFFICULT FOR THINGS TO WARM UP AS MUCH AS NORMAL DUE TO THE SHORT
BREAK BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 813 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

ALTHOUGH SHOWERS WERE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...VFR CONDITIONS
WERE STILL PRESENT AT MOST LOCATIONS AT TAF ISSUANCE. THE
EXCEPTION WAS IN THE FAR SW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND KEKQ
AND KSME...WHERE MVFR CEILINGS HAD DEVELOPED. THE MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SW TO NE THIS MORNING...WITH SOME
IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...LARGELY MVFR CAN BE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST...EXCEPT FOR IFR FROM AROUND THE MOUNTAIN
PARKWAY NORTHWARD. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FOR A TIME
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVENING. SOME
OF THESE MAY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS. A COLD FRONT WILL
SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...AND PRECIPITATION WILL START
TO TAPER OFF LATE. HOWEVER...MVFR AND LOCALIZED IFR WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL




000
FXUS63 KJKL 251213
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
813 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 13 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

BLENDED EARLY MORNING OBS INTO THE FORECAST. NO SUBSTANTIAL
CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS IN STORE...WITH EVENTS JUST BEGINNING TO
UNFOLD. AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NE OVER
THE REGION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...IT IS BEHIND SCHEDULE AS BASED
ON THE 00Z MODELS...WITH A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER MS AND AL
POSSIBLY FOILING THE OUTCOME. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS IT
WILL STILL HAPPEN...BUT MAY BE MORE FOCUSED ON OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES.

ONCE THIS PASSES...IT WILL BE A WAITING GAME FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS OUR AREA. IT STILL APPEARS THERE WILL BE LARGE SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY PRESENT IN OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...WITH WEAKER
AND MORE ELEVATED INSTABILITY FURTHER NORTHEAST. SHEAR WILL BE
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. DRY MID
LEVEL AIR IS ALSO EXPECTED IN OUR SW. THIS WILL PRESENT A THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER OUR SW...WITH SUPER CELLS POSSIBLY
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS...AND A SECONDARY THREAT OF
TORNADOES. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS ALSO A CONCERN WITH TRAINING OF
CELLS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WHERE THIS MAY SET UP IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS LIKELY WOULD NOT ARISE UNTIL THIS
EVENING...AND HAVE OPTED TO LET DAY SHIFT EXAMINE THE 12Z RUN
BEFORE MAKING A DECISION ON A FFA.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
EAST THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL END ON
SUNDAY MORNING AND CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP DURING THE DAY FROM NW TO
SE AS DRY AIR MOVES IN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED. THE PERIOD IS
SET TO BEGIN WITH A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OUT OF THE
NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PATTERN
IS THEN FORECAST TO CHANGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS BOTH
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER SYSTEMS MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND GULF COAST REGIONS. THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BE THE STRONGER OF THE TWO...AND THEREFORE WOULD HAVE
TO GREATER INFLUENCE ON AREA WEATHER MID WEEK. AS IT STANDS...A
ROUGHLY 60 40 BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS WAS USED TO CREATE
THE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD. THE SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BRING MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHWARD AND PHASE WITH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS LOW. THE GFS DOES DIFFER SLIGHTLY FROM THE
ECMWF MODEL DURING THIS PERIOD...AS ITS NORTHERN STREAM LOW PUSHES
ON EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND...AS OPPOSED TO PHASING WITH THE
SOUTHERN SYSTEM...AS THE ECMWF IS DEPICTING. THAT BEING
SAID...THIS IS WHERE THE USUALLY MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF MODEL
SOLUTION WAS FAVORED. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE DIFFERING MODEL
SOLUTIONS...DECIDED TO STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS...WITH 40 BEING THE HIGH END DURING THE WET PERIOD. FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE DRY AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER
SYSTEM EXITS TO OUR EAST AND ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.

TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
AND THE FACT THAT THIS WEEKENDS TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL DUE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. WHAT
THIS AMOUNTS TO IS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STARTING OFF BEHIND THE
EIGHT BALL TO START THE WEEK TEMPERATURE WISE...MAKING IT
DIFFICULT FOR THINGS TO WARM UP AS MUCH AS NORMAL DUE TO THE SHORT
BREAK BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 813 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

ALTHOUGH SHOWERS WERE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...VFR CONDITIONS
WERE STILL PRESENT AT MOST LOCATIONS AT TAF ISSUANCE. THE
EXCEPTION WAS IN THE FAR SW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND KEKQ
AND KSME...WHERE MVFR CEILINGS HAD DEVELOPED. THE MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SW TO NE THIS MORNING...WITH SOME
IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...LARGELY MVFR CAN BE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST...EXCEPT FOR IFR FROM AROUND THE MOUNTAIN
PARKWAY NORTHWARD. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FOR A TIME
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVENING. SOME
OF THESE MAY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS. A COLD FRONT WILL
SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...AND PRECIPITATION WILL START
TO TAPER OFF LATE. HOWEVER...MVFR AND LOCALIZED IFR WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL





000
FXUS63 KJKL 251213
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
813 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 13 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

BLENDED EARLY MORNING OBS INTO THE FORECAST. NO SUBSTANTIAL
CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS IN STORE...WITH EVENTS JUST BEGINNING TO
UNFOLD. AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NE OVER
THE REGION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...IT IS BEHIND SCHEDULE AS BASED
ON THE 00Z MODELS...WITH A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER MS AND AL
POSSIBLY FOILING THE OUTCOME. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS IT
WILL STILL HAPPEN...BUT MAY BE MORE FOCUSED ON OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES.

ONCE THIS PASSES...IT WILL BE A WAITING GAME FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS OUR AREA. IT STILL APPEARS THERE WILL BE LARGE SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY PRESENT IN OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...WITH WEAKER
AND MORE ELEVATED INSTABILITY FURTHER NORTHEAST. SHEAR WILL BE
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. DRY MID
LEVEL AIR IS ALSO EXPECTED IN OUR SW. THIS WILL PRESENT A THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER OUR SW...WITH SUPER CELLS POSSIBLY
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS...AND A SECONDARY THREAT OF
TORNADOES. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS ALSO A CONCERN WITH TRAINING OF
CELLS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WHERE THIS MAY SET UP IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS LIKELY WOULD NOT ARISE UNTIL THIS
EVENING...AND HAVE OPTED TO LET DAY SHIFT EXAMINE THE 12Z RUN
BEFORE MAKING A DECISION ON A FFA.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
EAST THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL END ON
SUNDAY MORNING AND CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP DURING THE DAY FROM NW TO
SE AS DRY AIR MOVES IN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED. THE PERIOD IS
SET TO BEGIN WITH A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OUT OF THE
NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PATTERN
IS THEN FORECAST TO CHANGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS BOTH
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER SYSTEMS MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND GULF COAST REGIONS. THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BE THE STRONGER OF THE TWO...AND THEREFORE WOULD HAVE
TO GREATER INFLUENCE ON AREA WEATHER MID WEEK. AS IT STANDS...A
ROUGHLY 60 40 BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS WAS USED TO CREATE
THE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD. THE SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BRING MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHWARD AND PHASE WITH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS LOW. THE GFS DOES DIFFER SLIGHTLY FROM THE
ECMWF MODEL DURING THIS PERIOD...AS ITS NORTHERN STREAM LOW PUSHES
ON EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND...AS OPPOSED TO PHASING WITH THE
SOUTHERN SYSTEM...AS THE ECMWF IS DEPICTING. THAT BEING
SAID...THIS IS WHERE THE USUALLY MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF MODEL
SOLUTION WAS FAVORED. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE DIFFERING MODEL
SOLUTIONS...DECIDED TO STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS...WITH 40 BEING THE HIGH END DURING THE WET PERIOD. FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE DRY AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER
SYSTEM EXITS TO OUR EAST AND ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.

TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
AND THE FACT THAT THIS WEEKENDS TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL DUE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. WHAT
THIS AMOUNTS TO IS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STARTING OFF BEHIND THE
EIGHT BALL TO START THE WEEK TEMPERATURE WISE...MAKING IT
DIFFICULT FOR THINGS TO WARM UP AS MUCH AS NORMAL DUE TO THE SHORT
BREAK BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 813 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

ALTHOUGH SHOWERS WERE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...VFR CONDITIONS
WERE STILL PRESENT AT MOST LOCATIONS AT TAF ISSUANCE. THE
EXCEPTION WAS IN THE FAR SW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND KEKQ
AND KSME...WHERE MVFR CEILINGS HAD DEVELOPED. THE MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SW TO NE THIS MORNING...WITH SOME
IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...LARGELY MVFR CAN BE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST...EXCEPT FOR IFR FROM AROUND THE MOUNTAIN
PARKWAY NORTHWARD. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FOR A TIME
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVENING. SOME
OF THESE MAY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS. A COLD FRONT WILL
SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...AND PRECIPITATION WILL START
TO TAPER OFF LATE. HOWEVER...MVFR AND LOCALIZED IFR WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL





000
FXUS63 KJKL 251213
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
813 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 13 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

BLENDED EARLY MORNING OBS INTO THE FORECAST. NO SUBSTANTIAL
CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS IN STORE...WITH EVENTS JUST BEGINNING TO
UNFOLD. AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NE OVER
THE REGION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...IT IS BEHIND SCHEDULE AS BASED
ON THE 00Z MODELS...WITH A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER MS AND AL
POSSIBLY FOILING THE OUTCOME. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS IT
WILL STILL HAPPEN...BUT MAY BE MORE FOCUSED ON OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES.

ONCE THIS PASSES...IT WILL BE A WAITING GAME FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS OUR AREA. IT STILL APPEARS THERE WILL BE LARGE SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY PRESENT IN OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...WITH WEAKER
AND MORE ELEVATED INSTABILITY FURTHER NORTHEAST. SHEAR WILL BE
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. DRY MID
LEVEL AIR IS ALSO EXPECTED IN OUR SW. THIS WILL PRESENT A THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER OUR SW...WITH SUPER CELLS POSSIBLY
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS...AND A SECONDARY THREAT OF
TORNADOES. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS ALSO A CONCERN WITH TRAINING OF
CELLS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WHERE THIS MAY SET UP IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS LIKELY WOULD NOT ARISE UNTIL THIS
EVENING...AND HAVE OPTED TO LET DAY SHIFT EXAMINE THE 12Z RUN
BEFORE MAKING A DECISION ON A FFA.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
EAST THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL END ON
SUNDAY MORNING AND CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP DURING THE DAY FROM NW TO
SE AS DRY AIR MOVES IN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED. THE PERIOD IS
SET TO BEGIN WITH A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OUT OF THE
NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PATTERN
IS THEN FORECAST TO CHANGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS BOTH
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER SYSTEMS MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND GULF COAST REGIONS. THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BE THE STRONGER OF THE TWO...AND THEREFORE WOULD HAVE
TO GREATER INFLUENCE ON AREA WEATHER MID WEEK. AS IT STANDS...A
ROUGHLY 60 40 BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS WAS USED TO CREATE
THE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD. THE SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BRING MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHWARD AND PHASE WITH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS LOW. THE GFS DOES DIFFER SLIGHTLY FROM THE
ECMWF MODEL DURING THIS PERIOD...AS ITS NORTHERN STREAM LOW PUSHES
ON EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND...AS OPPOSED TO PHASING WITH THE
SOUTHERN SYSTEM...AS THE ECMWF IS DEPICTING. THAT BEING
SAID...THIS IS WHERE THE USUALLY MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF MODEL
SOLUTION WAS FAVORED. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE DIFFERING MODEL
SOLUTIONS...DECIDED TO STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS...WITH 40 BEING THE HIGH END DURING THE WET PERIOD. FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE DRY AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER
SYSTEM EXITS TO OUR EAST AND ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.

TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
AND THE FACT THAT THIS WEEKENDS TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL DUE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. WHAT
THIS AMOUNTS TO IS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STARTING OFF BEHIND THE
EIGHT BALL TO START THE WEEK TEMPERATURE WISE...MAKING IT
DIFFICULT FOR THINGS TO WARM UP AS MUCH AS NORMAL DUE TO THE SHORT
BREAK BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 813 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

ALTHOUGH SHOWERS WERE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...VFR CONDITIONS
WERE STILL PRESENT AT MOST LOCATIONS AT TAF ISSUANCE. THE
EXCEPTION WAS IN THE FAR SW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND KEKQ
AND KSME...WHERE MVFR CEILINGS HAD DEVELOPED. THE MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SW TO NE THIS MORNING...WITH SOME
IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...LARGELY MVFR CAN BE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST...EXCEPT FOR IFR FROM AROUND THE MOUNTAIN
PARKWAY NORTHWARD. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FOR A TIME
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVENING. SOME
OF THESE MAY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS. A COLD FRONT WILL
SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...AND PRECIPITATION WILL START
TO TAPER OFF LATE. HOWEVER...MVFR AND LOCALIZED IFR WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL




000
FXUS63 KJKL 250811
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
411 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS IN STORE...WITH EVENTS JUST BEGINNING TO
UNFOLD. AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NE OVER
THE REGION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...IT IS BEHIND SCHEDULE AS BASED
ON THE 00Z MODELS...WITH A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER MS AND AL
POSSIBLY FOILING THE OUTCOME. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS IT
WILL STILL HAPPEN...BUT MAY BE MORE FOCUSED ON OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES.

ONCE THIS PASSES...IT WILL BE A WAITING GAME FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS OUR AREA. IT STILL APPEARS THERE WILL BE LARGE SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY PRESENT IN OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...WITH WEAKER
AND MORE ELEVATED INSTABILITY FURTHER NORTHEAST. SHEAR WILL BE
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. DRY MID
LEVEL AIR IS ALSO EXPECTED IN OUR SW. THIS WILL PRESENT A THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER OUR SW...WITH SUPER CELLS POSSIBLY
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS...AND A SECONDARY THREAT OF
TORNADOES. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS ALSO A CONCERN WITH TRAINING OF
CELLS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WHERE THIS MAY SET UP IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS LIKELY WOULD NOT ARISE UNTIL THIS
EVENING...AND HAVE OPTED TO LET DAY SHIFT EXAMINE THE 12Z RUN
BEFORE MAKING A DECISION ON A FFA.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
EAST THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL END ON
SUNDAY MORNING AND CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP DURING THE DAY FROM NW TO
SE AS DRY AIR MOVES IN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED. THE PERIOD IS
SET TO BEGIN WITH A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OUT OF THE
NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PATTERN
IS THEN FORECAST TO CHANGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS BOTH
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER SYSTEMS MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND GULF COAST REGIONS. THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BE THE STRONGER OF THE TWO...AND THEREFORE WOULD HAVE
TO GREATER INFLUENCE ON AREA WEATHER MID WEEK. AS IT STANDS...A
ROUGHLY 60 40 BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS WAS USED TO CREATE
THE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD. THE SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BRING MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHWARD AND PHASE WITH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS LOW. THE GFS DOES DIFFER SLIGHTLY FROM THE
ECMWF MODEL DURING THIS PERIOD...AS ITS NORTHERN STREAM LOW PUSHES
ON EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND...AS OPPOSED TO PHASING WITH THE
SOUTHERN SYSTEM...AS THE ECMWF IS DEPICTING. THAT BEING
SAID...THIS IS WHERE THE USUALLY MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF MODEL
SOLUTION WAS FAVORED. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE DIFFERING MODEL
SOLUTIONS...DECIDED TO STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS...WITH 40 BEING THE HIGH END DURING THE WET PERIOD. FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE DRY AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER
SYSTEM EXITS TO OUR EAST AND ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.

TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
AND THE FACT THAT THIS WEEKENDS TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL DUE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. WHAT
THIS AMOUNTS TO IS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STARTING OFF BEHIND THE
EIGHT BALL TO START THE WEEK TEMPERATURE WISE...MAKING IT
DIFFICULT FOR THINGS TO WARM UP AS MUCH AS NORMAL DUE TO THE SHORT
BREAK BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 202 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT AT TAF ISSUANCE...BUT WILL DEGRADE TO
MVFR FROM SW TO NE BETWEEN ABOUT 06Z AND 14Z AS RAIN DEVELOPS. IFR
IS ALSO EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. STEADY
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE REPLACED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THEY WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATE IN THE DAY
AND THIS EVENING. SOME LOCATIONS MAY DESCEND BACK TO IFR WITH THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL




000
FXUS63 KJKL 250811
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
411 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS IN STORE...WITH EVENTS JUST BEGINNING TO
UNFOLD. AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NE OVER
THE REGION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...IT IS BEHIND SCHEDULE AS BASED
ON THE 00Z MODELS...WITH A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER MS AND AL
POSSIBLY FOILING THE OUTCOME. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS IT
WILL STILL HAPPEN...BUT MAY BE MORE FOCUSED ON OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES.

ONCE THIS PASSES...IT WILL BE A WAITING GAME FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS OUR AREA. IT STILL APPEARS THERE WILL BE LARGE SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY PRESENT IN OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...WITH WEAKER
AND MORE ELEVATED INSTABILITY FURTHER NORTHEAST. SHEAR WILL BE
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. DRY MID
LEVEL AIR IS ALSO EXPECTED IN OUR SW. THIS WILL PRESENT A THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER OUR SW...WITH SUPER CELLS POSSIBLY
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS...AND A SECONDARY THREAT OF
TORNADOES. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS ALSO A CONCERN WITH TRAINING OF
CELLS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WHERE THIS MAY SET UP IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS LIKELY WOULD NOT ARISE UNTIL THIS
EVENING...AND HAVE OPTED TO LET DAY SHIFT EXAMINE THE 12Z RUN
BEFORE MAKING A DECISION ON A FFA.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
EAST THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL END ON
SUNDAY MORNING AND CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP DURING THE DAY FROM NW TO
SE AS DRY AIR MOVES IN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED. THE PERIOD IS
SET TO BEGIN WITH A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OUT OF THE
NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PATTERN
IS THEN FORECAST TO CHANGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS BOTH
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER SYSTEMS MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND GULF COAST REGIONS. THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BE THE STRONGER OF THE TWO...AND THEREFORE WOULD HAVE
TO GREATER INFLUENCE ON AREA WEATHER MID WEEK. AS IT STANDS...A
ROUGHLY 60 40 BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS WAS USED TO CREATE
THE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD. THE SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BRING MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHWARD AND PHASE WITH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS LOW. THE GFS DOES DIFFER SLIGHTLY FROM THE
ECMWF MODEL DURING THIS PERIOD...AS ITS NORTHERN STREAM LOW PUSHES
ON EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND...AS OPPOSED TO PHASING WITH THE
SOUTHERN SYSTEM...AS THE ECMWF IS DEPICTING. THAT BEING
SAID...THIS IS WHERE THE USUALLY MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF MODEL
SOLUTION WAS FAVORED. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE DIFFERING MODEL
SOLUTIONS...DECIDED TO STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS...WITH 40 BEING THE HIGH END DURING THE WET PERIOD. FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE DRY AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER
SYSTEM EXITS TO OUR EAST AND ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.

TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
AND THE FACT THAT THIS WEEKENDS TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL DUE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. WHAT
THIS AMOUNTS TO IS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STARTING OFF BEHIND THE
EIGHT BALL TO START THE WEEK TEMPERATURE WISE...MAKING IT
DIFFICULT FOR THINGS TO WARM UP AS MUCH AS NORMAL DUE TO THE SHORT
BREAK BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 202 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT AT TAF ISSUANCE...BUT WILL DEGRADE TO
MVFR FROM SW TO NE BETWEEN ABOUT 06Z AND 14Z AS RAIN DEVELOPS. IFR
IS ALSO EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. STEADY
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE REPLACED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THEY WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATE IN THE DAY
AND THIS EVENING. SOME LOCATIONS MAY DESCEND BACK TO IFR WITH THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL




000
FXUS63 KJKL 250811
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
411 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS IN STORE...WITH EVENTS JUST BEGINNING TO
UNFOLD. AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NE OVER
THE REGION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...IT IS BEHIND SCHEDULE AS BASED
ON THE 00Z MODELS...WITH A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER MS AND AL
POSSIBLY FOILING THE OUTCOME. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS IT
WILL STILL HAPPEN...BUT MAY BE MORE FOCUSED ON OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES.

ONCE THIS PASSES...IT WILL BE A WAITING GAME FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS OUR AREA. IT STILL APPEARS THERE WILL BE LARGE SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY PRESENT IN OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...WITH WEAKER
AND MORE ELEVATED INSTABILITY FURTHER NORTHEAST. SHEAR WILL BE
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. DRY MID
LEVEL AIR IS ALSO EXPECTED IN OUR SW. THIS WILL PRESENT A THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER OUR SW...WITH SUPER CELLS POSSIBLY
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS...AND A SECONDARY THREAT OF
TORNADOES. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS ALSO A CONCERN WITH TRAINING OF
CELLS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WHERE THIS MAY SET UP IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS LIKELY WOULD NOT ARISE UNTIL THIS
EVENING...AND HAVE OPTED TO LET DAY SHIFT EXAMINE THE 12Z RUN
BEFORE MAKING A DECISION ON A FFA.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
EAST THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL END ON
SUNDAY MORNING AND CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP DURING THE DAY FROM NW TO
SE AS DRY AIR MOVES IN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED. THE PERIOD IS
SET TO BEGIN WITH A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OUT OF THE
NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PATTERN
IS THEN FORECAST TO CHANGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS BOTH
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER SYSTEMS MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND GULF COAST REGIONS. THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BE THE STRONGER OF THE TWO...AND THEREFORE WOULD HAVE
TO GREATER INFLUENCE ON AREA WEATHER MID WEEK. AS IT STANDS...A
ROUGHLY 60 40 BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS WAS USED TO CREATE
THE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD. THE SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BRING MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHWARD AND PHASE WITH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS LOW. THE GFS DOES DIFFER SLIGHTLY FROM THE
ECMWF MODEL DURING THIS PERIOD...AS ITS NORTHERN STREAM LOW PUSHES
ON EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND...AS OPPOSED TO PHASING WITH THE
SOUTHERN SYSTEM...AS THE ECMWF IS DEPICTING. THAT BEING
SAID...THIS IS WHERE THE USUALLY MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF MODEL
SOLUTION WAS FAVORED. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE DIFFERING MODEL
SOLUTIONS...DECIDED TO STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS...WITH 40 BEING THE HIGH END DURING THE WET PERIOD. FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE DRY AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER
SYSTEM EXITS TO OUR EAST AND ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.

TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
AND THE FACT THAT THIS WEEKENDS TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL DUE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. WHAT
THIS AMOUNTS TO IS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STARTING OFF BEHIND THE
EIGHT BALL TO START THE WEEK TEMPERATURE WISE...MAKING IT
DIFFICULT FOR THINGS TO WARM UP AS MUCH AS NORMAL DUE TO THE SHORT
BREAK BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 202 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT AT TAF ISSUANCE...BUT WILL DEGRADE TO
MVFR FROM SW TO NE BETWEEN ABOUT 06Z AND 14Z AS RAIN DEVELOPS. IFR
IS ALSO EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. STEADY
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE REPLACED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THEY WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATE IN THE DAY
AND THIS EVENING. SOME LOCATIONS MAY DESCEND BACK TO IFR WITH THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL





000
FXUS63 KJKL 250800
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
400 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS IN STORE...WITH EVENTS JUST BEGINNING TO
UNFOLD. AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NE OVER
THE REGION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...IT IS BEHIND SCHEDULE AS BASED
ON THE 00Z MODELS...WITH A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER MS AND AL
POSSIBLY FOILING THE OUTCOME. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS IT
WILL STILL HAPPEN...BUT MAY BE MORE FOCUSE ON OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES.

ONCE THIS PASSES...IT WILL BE A WAITING GAME FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS OUR AREA. IT STILL APPEARS THERE WILL BE LARGE SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY PRESENT IN OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...WITH WEAKER
AND MORE ELEVATED INSTABILITY FURTHER NORTHEAST. SHEAR WILL BE
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. DRY MID
LEVEL AIR IS ALSO EXPECTED IN OUR SW. THIS WILL PRESENT A THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED. THE PERIOD IS
SET TO BEGIN WITH A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OUT OF THE
NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PATTERN
IS THEN FORECAST TO CHANGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS BOTH
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER SYSTEMS MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND GULF COAST REGIONS. THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BE THE STRONGER OF THE TWO...AND THEREFORE WOULD HAVE
TO GREATER INFLUENCE ON AREA WEATHER MID WEEK. AS IT STANDS...A
ROUGHLY 60 40 BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS WAS USED TO CREATE
THE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD. THE SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BRING MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHWARD AND PHASE WITH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS LOW. THE GFS DOES DIFFER SLIGHTLY FROM THE
ECMWF MODEL DURING THIS PERIOD...AS ITS NORTHERN STREAM LOW PUSHES
ON EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND...AS OPPOSED TO PHASING WITH THE
SOUTHERN SYSTEM...AS THE ECMWF IS DEPICTING. THAT BEING
SAID...THIS IS WHERE THE USUALLY MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF MODEL
SOLUTION WAS FAVORED. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE DIFFERING MODEL
SOLUTIONS...DECIDED TO STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS...WITH 40 BEING THE HIGH END DURING THE WET PERIOD. FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE DRY AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER
SYSTEM EXITS TO OUR EAST AND ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.

TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
AND THE FACT THAT THIS WEEKENDS TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN WELLBELOW
NORMAL DUE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. WHAT THIS
AMOUNTS TO IS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STARTING OFF BEHIND THE EIGHT
BALL TO START THE WEEK TEMPERATURE WISE...MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR
THINGS TO WARM UP AS MUCH AS NORMAL DUE TO THE SHORT BREAK BETWEEN
WEATHER SYSTEMS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 202 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT AT TAF ISSUANCE...BUT WILL DEGRADE TO
MVFR FROM SW TO NE BETWEEN ABOUT 06Z AND 14Z AS RAIN DEVELOPS. IFR
IS ALSO EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. STEADY
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE REPLACED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THEY WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATE IN THE DAY
AND THIS EVENING. SOME LOCATIONS MAY DESCEND BACK TO IFR WITH THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL




000
FXUS63 KJKL 250800
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
400 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS IN STORE...WITH EVENTS JUST BEGINNING TO
UNFOLD. AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NE OVER
THE REGION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...IT IS BEHIND SCHEDULE AS BASED
ON THE 00Z MODELS...WITH A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER MS AND AL
POSSIBLY FOILING THE OUTCOME. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS IT
WILL STILL HAPPEN...BUT MAY BE MORE FOCUSE ON OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES.

ONCE THIS PASSES...IT WILL BE A WAITING GAME FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS OUR AREA. IT STILL APPEARS THERE WILL BE LARGE SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY PRESENT IN OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...WITH WEAKER
AND MORE ELEVATED INSTABILITY FURTHER NORTHEAST. SHEAR WILL BE
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. DRY MID
LEVEL AIR IS ALSO EXPECTED IN OUR SW. THIS WILL PRESENT A THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED. THE PERIOD IS
SET TO BEGIN WITH A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OUT OF THE
NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PATTERN
IS THEN FORECAST TO CHANGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS BOTH
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER SYSTEMS MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND GULF COAST REGIONS. THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BE THE STRONGER OF THE TWO...AND THEREFORE WOULD HAVE
TO GREATER INFLUENCE ON AREA WEATHER MID WEEK. AS IT STANDS...A
ROUGHLY 60 40 BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS WAS USED TO CREATE
THE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD. THE SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BRING MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHWARD AND PHASE WITH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS LOW. THE GFS DOES DIFFER SLIGHTLY FROM THE
ECMWF MODEL DURING THIS PERIOD...AS ITS NORTHERN STREAM LOW PUSHES
ON EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND...AS OPPOSED TO PHASING WITH THE
SOUTHERN SYSTEM...AS THE ECMWF IS DEPICTING. THAT BEING
SAID...THIS IS WHERE THE USUALLY MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF MODEL
SOLUTION WAS FAVORED. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE DIFFERING MODEL
SOLUTIONS...DECIDED TO STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS...WITH 40 BEING THE HIGH END DURING THE WET PERIOD. FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE DRY AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER
SYSTEM EXITS TO OUR EAST AND ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.

TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
AND THE FACT THAT THIS WEEKENDS TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN WELLBELOW
NORMAL DUE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. WHAT THIS
AMOUNTS TO IS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STARTING OFF BEHIND THE EIGHT
BALL TO START THE WEEK TEMPERATURE WISE...MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR
THINGS TO WARM UP AS MUCH AS NORMAL DUE TO THE SHORT BREAK BETWEEN
WEATHER SYSTEMS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 202 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT AT TAF ISSUANCE...BUT WILL DEGRADE TO
MVFR FROM SW TO NE BETWEEN ABOUT 06Z AND 14Z AS RAIN DEVELOPS. IFR
IS ALSO EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. STEADY
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE REPLACED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THEY WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATE IN THE DAY
AND THIS EVENING. SOME LOCATIONS MAY DESCEND BACK TO IFR WITH THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL





000
FXUS63 KJKL 250735
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
335 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 202 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...TEMPS HAVE NOT DROPPED OFF
AS QUICKLY AS WAS FORECAST. HAVE RAISED OVERNIGHT FORECAST MIN
TEMPS A BIT...ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN VALLEYS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1050 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

DID AN UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE POPS AND WX THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT BASED ON THE NEWEST HRRR AND NAM12 GUIDANCE AS WELL AS
CURRENT RADAR/OBS. ALSO MATCHED UP THE HOURLY T AND TD GRIDS PER
THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS...WHERE A 5 DEGREE OR SO RIDGE TO VALLEY
SPLIT CURRENTLY EXISTS IN THE EAST. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO
THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS...ALONG WITH THE ISSUANCE OF A FRESHENED
SET OF ZONES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CLINGING ON IN THE FAR EAST
IN THE FACE OF AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...POISED TO
BRING SVR WX TO KY LATER ON SATURDAY...FROM THE WEST. THIS
WESTERN LOW/S WARM FRONT WILL SWING TOWARD THE AREA BY DAWN...
AFFECTING THE FAR SOUTHWEST INITIALLY THEN LIFTING DEEPER INTO
EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. THE PCPN WILL HAVE A TOUGH
TIME REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE BULK OF THE
NIGHT AS THE VERY DRY LOWER ATMOSPHERE ONLY SLOWLY SATURATES...
DESPITE THE HRRR/NAM12 INDICATIONS. IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...EXPECT
THE EASTERN VALLEYS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY FOLLOWING SUNSET...EVEN
WITH THE THIN HIGH CLOUDS NOW IN PLACE OVERHEAD. ELSEWHERE...
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP THROUGH THE NIGHT...MUCH WARMER THAN
LAST NIGHT. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO NUDGE TEMPS IN THE
EASTERN VALLEYS DOWN A BIT...BUT EXPECT THEM TO MIX OUT BY DAWN AS
THE AIR SATURATES AND SHOWERS PUSH OVER THIS PART OF THE STATE. IN
ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT FOR SATURDAY...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL DEPENDING ON THE TRACKS OF THE INDIVIDUAL CELLS AND/OR AN
MCS TRACKING ACROSS THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING THAT
CERTAINLY LOOKS POSSIBLE. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO
THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER AT THIS TIME IS BEGINNING TO STREAM INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
THIS EVENING. THIS IS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OUT WEST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA WILL
LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT NEARLY UNIFORM WITH SOUTHERLY
WARM AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT THIS TIME
OVERNIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS
IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND MOVING NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING
SHOWERS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY AFTERWARD.

HEADING INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS SATURDAY MORNING...THE MAIN SURFACE
LOW BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE
MIDWEST WITH SOME INSTABILITY BEGINNING TO ENTER THE SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES AND THIS MAY LEAD TO A FEW EARLY NON SEVERE STORMS AND
MAY NEED TO ADD THUNDER TO THE TONIGHT PERIOD OF THE HWO. HEADING
INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY...AFTER EARLIER RAINFALL HAS MOVED
THROUGH...SOME CLEARING SKIES AND RECOVERING ENERGY AND
DESTABILIZATION WILL THEN OCCUR WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AROUND
1000 TO 1500 J/KG OVER SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY BY THE 18Z TIME
FRAME. THIS ALSO WITH SOME 60 KNOT SFC TO 6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR SOME ROTATING STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. DUE TO THIS
THREAT SPC HAS PUT THE SOUTHERN AREA IN AN ENHANCED THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER AND HAVE PUT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO AND MAY NEED AN
SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT IN DETAIL. THE ONLY THREAT THAT IS A
BIT QUESTIONABLE TOMORROW WILL BE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. THOUGH
THE LAST HEAVY RAINFALL WAS LONG ENOUGH AGO THAT MOST PLACES HAVE
BEEN ALLOWED TO DRAIN AND DRY OUT. AS WELL...GREEN HAS GONE INTO
FULL SWING ACROSS THE AREA ALLEVIATING THE RUNOFF POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER...THE DISCRETE SUPER CELL POTENTIAL WILL ADD TO THE THREAT
OF FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS IF AN MCS DEVELOPS BY LATE IN THE
EVENING ON SATURDAY. MAY NEED TO EVALUATE THIS DURING THE NEXT
MODEL RUN.

HEADING INTO SATURDAY EVENING...THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH TO
THE NORTHEAST AND THEN THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS RIGHT ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY WITH ANOTHER STRONG SHOT OF RAINFALL WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH
TO INITIATE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. HAVE ADJUSTED THE QPF FOR THE
00Z TO 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT PERIOD FOR THIS RAINFALL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE LESSENING BY 06Z TO 12Z RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE EVENT
WILL BE WINDING DOWN. FOR NOW...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE AND
FLOOD THREAT IN THE HWO AND MAY NEED AN SPS TO FURTHER HIGHLIGHT
THIS. THE ZFP WILL HAVE SEVERE POTENTIAL AND HEAVY RAINFALL
MENTIONED AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED. THE PERIOD IS
SET TO BEGIN WITH A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OUT OF THE
NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PATTERN
IS THEN FORECAST TO CHANGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS BOTH
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER SYSTEMS MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND GULF COAST REGIONS. THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BE THE STRONGER OF THE TWO...AND THEREFORE WOULD HAVE
TO GREATER INFLUENCE ON AREA WEATHER MID WEEK. AS IT STANDS...A
ROUGHLY 60 40 BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS WAS USED TO CREATE
THE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD. THE SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BRING MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHWARD AND PHASE WITH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS LOW. THE GFS DOES DIFFER SLIGHTLY FROM THE
ECMWF MODEL DURING THIS PERIOD...AS ITS NORTHERN STREAM LOW PUSHES
ON EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND...AS OPPOSED TO PHASING WITH THE
SOUTHERN SYSTEM...AS THE ECMWF IS DEPICTING. THAT BEING
SAID...THIS IS WHERE THE USUALLY MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF MODEL
SOLUTION WAS FAVORED. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE DIFFERING MODEL
SOLUTIONS...DECIDED TO STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS...WITH 40 BEING THE HIGH END DURING THE WET PERIOD. FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE DRY AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER
SYSTEM EXITS TO OUR EAST AND ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.

TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
AND THE FACT THAT THIS WEEKENDS TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN WELLBELOW
NORMAL DUE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. WHAT THIS
AMOUNTS TO IS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STARTING OFF BEHIND THE EIGHT
BALL TO START THE WEEK TEMPERATURE WISE...MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR
THINGS TO WARM UP AS MUCH AS NORMAL DUE TO THE SHORT BREAK BETWEEN
WEATHER SYSTEMS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 202 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT AT TAF ISSUANCE...BUT WILL DEGRADE TO
MVFR FROM SW TO NE BETWEEN ABOUT 06Z AND 14Z AS RAIN DEVELOPS. IFR
IS ALSO EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. STEADY
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE REPLACED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THEY WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATE IN THE DAY
AND THIS EVENING. SOME LOCATIONS MAY DESCEND BACK TO IFR WITH THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL





000
FXUS63 KJKL 250735
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
335 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 202 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...TEMPS HAVE NOT DROPPED OFF
AS QUICKLY AS WAS FORECAST. HAVE RAISED OVERNIGHT FORECAST MIN
TEMPS A BIT...ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN VALLEYS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1050 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

DID AN UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE POPS AND WX THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT BASED ON THE NEWEST HRRR AND NAM12 GUIDANCE AS WELL AS
CURRENT RADAR/OBS. ALSO MATCHED UP THE HOURLY T AND TD GRIDS PER
THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS...WHERE A 5 DEGREE OR SO RIDGE TO VALLEY
SPLIT CURRENTLY EXISTS IN THE EAST. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO
THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS...ALONG WITH THE ISSUANCE OF A FRESHENED
SET OF ZONES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CLINGING ON IN THE FAR EAST
IN THE FACE OF AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...POISED TO
BRING SVR WX TO KY LATER ON SATURDAY...FROM THE WEST. THIS
WESTERN LOW/S WARM FRONT WILL SWING TOWARD THE AREA BY DAWN...
AFFECTING THE FAR SOUTHWEST INITIALLY THEN LIFTING DEEPER INTO
EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. THE PCPN WILL HAVE A TOUGH
TIME REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE BULK OF THE
NIGHT AS THE VERY DRY LOWER ATMOSPHERE ONLY SLOWLY SATURATES...
DESPITE THE HRRR/NAM12 INDICATIONS. IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...EXPECT
THE EASTERN VALLEYS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY FOLLOWING SUNSET...EVEN
WITH THE THIN HIGH CLOUDS NOW IN PLACE OVERHEAD. ELSEWHERE...
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP THROUGH THE NIGHT...MUCH WARMER THAN
LAST NIGHT. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO NUDGE TEMPS IN THE
EASTERN VALLEYS DOWN A BIT...BUT EXPECT THEM TO MIX OUT BY DAWN AS
THE AIR SATURATES AND SHOWERS PUSH OVER THIS PART OF THE STATE. IN
ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT FOR SATURDAY...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL DEPENDING ON THE TRACKS OF THE INDIVIDUAL CELLS AND/OR AN
MCS TRACKING ACROSS THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING THAT
CERTAINLY LOOKS POSSIBLE. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO
THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER AT THIS TIME IS BEGINNING TO STREAM INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
THIS EVENING. THIS IS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OUT WEST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA WILL
LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT NEARLY UNIFORM WITH SOUTHERLY
WARM AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT THIS TIME
OVERNIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS
IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND MOVING NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING
SHOWERS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY AFTERWARD.

HEADING INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS SATURDAY MORNING...THE MAIN SURFACE
LOW BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE
MIDWEST WITH SOME INSTABILITY BEGINNING TO ENTER THE SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES AND THIS MAY LEAD TO A FEW EARLY NON SEVERE STORMS AND
MAY NEED TO ADD THUNDER TO THE TONIGHT PERIOD OF THE HWO. HEADING
INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY...AFTER EARLIER RAINFALL HAS MOVED
THROUGH...SOME CLEARING SKIES AND RECOVERING ENERGY AND
DESTABILIZATION WILL THEN OCCUR WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AROUND
1000 TO 1500 J/KG OVER SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY BY THE 18Z TIME
FRAME. THIS ALSO WITH SOME 60 KNOT SFC TO 6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR SOME ROTATING STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. DUE TO THIS
THREAT SPC HAS PUT THE SOUTHERN AREA IN AN ENHANCED THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER AND HAVE PUT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO AND MAY NEED AN
SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT IN DETAIL. THE ONLY THREAT THAT IS A
BIT QUESTIONABLE TOMORROW WILL BE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. THOUGH
THE LAST HEAVY RAINFALL WAS LONG ENOUGH AGO THAT MOST PLACES HAVE
BEEN ALLOWED TO DRAIN AND DRY OUT. AS WELL...GREEN HAS GONE INTO
FULL SWING ACROSS THE AREA ALLEVIATING THE RUNOFF POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER...THE DISCRETE SUPER CELL POTENTIAL WILL ADD TO THE THREAT
OF FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS IF AN MCS DEVELOPS BY LATE IN THE
EVENING ON SATURDAY. MAY NEED TO EVALUATE THIS DURING THE NEXT
MODEL RUN.

HEADING INTO SATURDAY EVENING...THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH TO
THE NORTHEAST AND THEN THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS RIGHT ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY WITH ANOTHER STRONG SHOT OF RAINFALL WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH
TO INITIATE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. HAVE ADJUSTED THE QPF FOR THE
00Z TO 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT PERIOD FOR THIS RAINFALL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE LESSENING BY 06Z TO 12Z RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE EVENT
WILL BE WINDING DOWN. FOR NOW...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE AND
FLOOD THREAT IN THE HWO AND MAY NEED AN SPS TO FURTHER HIGHLIGHT
THIS. THE ZFP WILL HAVE SEVERE POTENTIAL AND HEAVY RAINFALL
MENTIONED AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED. THE PERIOD IS
SET TO BEGIN WITH A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OUT OF THE
NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PATTERN
IS THEN FORECAST TO CHANGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS BOTH
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER SYSTEMS MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND GULF COAST REGIONS. THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BE THE STRONGER OF THE TWO...AND THEREFORE WOULD HAVE
TO GREATER INFLUENCE ON AREA WEATHER MID WEEK. AS IT STANDS...A
ROUGHLY 60 40 BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS WAS USED TO CREATE
THE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD. THE SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BRING MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHWARD AND PHASE WITH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS LOW. THE GFS DOES DIFFER SLIGHTLY FROM THE
ECMWF MODEL DURING THIS PERIOD...AS ITS NORTHERN STREAM LOW PUSHES
ON EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND...AS OPPOSED TO PHASING WITH THE
SOUTHERN SYSTEM...AS THE ECMWF IS DEPICTING. THAT BEING
SAID...THIS IS WHERE THE USUALLY MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF MODEL
SOLUTION WAS FAVORED. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE DIFFERING MODEL
SOLUTIONS...DECIDED TO STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS...WITH 40 BEING THE HIGH END DURING THE WET PERIOD. FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE DRY AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER
SYSTEM EXITS TO OUR EAST AND ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.

TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
AND THE FACT THAT THIS WEEKENDS TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN WELLBELOW
NORMAL DUE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. WHAT THIS
AMOUNTS TO IS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STARTING OFF BEHIND THE EIGHT
BALL TO START THE WEEK TEMPERATURE WISE...MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR
THINGS TO WARM UP AS MUCH AS NORMAL DUE TO THE SHORT BREAK BETWEEN
WEATHER SYSTEMS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 202 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT AT TAF ISSUANCE...BUT WILL DEGRADE TO
MVFR FROM SW TO NE BETWEEN ABOUT 06Z AND 14Z AS RAIN DEVELOPS. IFR
IS ALSO EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. STEADY
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE REPLACED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THEY WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATE IN THE DAY
AND THIS EVENING. SOME LOCATIONS MAY DESCEND BACK TO IFR WITH THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL




000
FXUS63 KJKL 250602
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
202 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 202 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...TEMPS HAVE NOT DROPPED OFF
AS QUICKLY AS WAS FORECAST. HAVE RAISED OVERNIGHT FORECAST MIN
TEMPS A BIT...ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN VALLEYS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1050 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

DID AN UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE POPS AND WX THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT BASED ON THE NEWEST HRRR AND NAM12 GUIDANCE AS WELL AS
CURRENT RADAR/OBS. ALSO MATCHED UP THE HOURLY T AND TD GRIDS PER
THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS...WHERE A 5 DEGREE OR SO RIDGE TO VALLEY
SPLIT CURRENTLY EXISTS IN THE EAST. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO
THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS...ALONG WITH THE ISSUANCE OF A FRESHENED
SET OF ZONES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CLINGING ON IN THE FAR EAST
IN THE FACE OF AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...POISED TO
BRING SVR WX TO KY LATER ON SATURDAY...FROM THE WEST. THIS
WESTERN LOW/S WARM FRONT WILL SWING TOWARD THE AREA BY DAWN...
AFFECTING THE FAR SOUTHWEST INITIALLY THEN LIFTING DEEPER INTO
EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. THE PCPN WILL HAVE A TOUGH
TIME REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE BULK OF THE
NIGHT AS THE VERY DRY LOWER ATMOSPHERE ONLY SLOWLY SATURATES...
DESPITE THE HRRR/NAM12 INDICATIONS. IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...EXPECT
THE EASTERN VALLEYS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY FOLLOWING SUNSET...EVEN
WITH THE THIN HIGH CLOUDS NOW IN PLACE OVERHEAD. ELSEWHERE...
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP THROUGH THE NIGHT...MUCH WARMER THAN
LAST NIGHT. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO NUDGE TEMPS IN THE
EASTERN VALLEYS DOWN A BIT...BUT EXPECT THEM TO MIX OUT BY DAWN AS
THE AIR SATURATES AND SHOWERS PUSH OVER THIS PART OF THE STATE. IN
ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT FOR SATURDAY...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL DEPENDING ON THE TRACKS OF THE INDIVIDUAL CELLS AND/OR AN
MCS TRACKING ACROSS THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING THAT
CERTAINLY LOOKS POSSIBLE. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO
THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER AT THIS TIME IS BEGINNING TO STREAM INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
THIS EVENING. THIS IS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OUT WEST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA WILL
LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT NEARLY UNIFORM WITH SOUTHERLY
WARM AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT THIS TIME
OVERNIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS
IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND MOVING NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING
SHOWERS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY AFTERWARD.

HEADING INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS SATURDAY MORNING...THE MAIN SURFACE
LOW BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE
MIDWEST WITH SOME INSTABILITY BEGINNING TO ENTER THE SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES AND THIS MAY LEAD TO A FEW EARLY NON SEVERE STORMS AND
MAY NEED TO ADD THUNDER TO THE TONIGHT PERIOD OF THE HWO. HEADING
INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY...AFTER EARLIER RAINFALL HAS MOVED
THROUGH...SOME CLEARING SKIES AND RECOVERING ENERGY AND
DESTABILIZATION WILL THEN OCCUR WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AROUND
1000 TO 1500 J/KG OVER SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY BY THE 18Z TIME
FRAME. THIS ALSO WITH SOME 60 KNOT SFC TO 6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR SOME ROTATING STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. DUE TO THIS
THREAT SPC HAS PUT THE SOUTHERN AREA IN AN ENHANCED THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER AND HAVE PUT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO AND MAY NEED AN
SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT IN DETAIL. THE ONLY THREAT THAT IS A
BIT QUESTIONABLE TOMORROW WILL BE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. THOUGH
THE LAST HEAVY RAINFALL WAS LONG ENOUGH AGO THAT MOST PLACES HAVE
BEEN ALLOWED TO DRAIN AND DRY OUT. AS WELL...GREEN HAS GONE INTO
FULL SWING ACROSS THE AREA ALLEVIATING THE RUNOFF POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER...THE DISCRETE SUPER CELL POTENTIAL WILL ADD TO THE THREAT
OF FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS IF AN MCS DEVELOPS BY LATE IN THE
EVENING ON SATURDAY. MAY NEED TO EVALUATE THIS DURING THE NEXT
MODEL RUN.

HEADING INTO SATURDAY EVENING...THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH TO
THE NORTHEAST AND THEN THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS RIGHT ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY WITH ANOTHER STRONG SHOT OF RAINFALL WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH
TO INITIATE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. HAVE ADJUSTED THE QPF FOR THE
00Z TO 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT PERIOD FOR THIS RAINFALL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE LESSENING BY 06Z TO 12Z RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE EVENT
WILL BE WINDING DOWN. FOR NOW...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE AND
FLOOD THREAT IN THE HWO AND MAY NEED AN SPS TO FURTHER HIGHLIGHT
THIS. THE ZFP WILL HAVE SEVERE POTENTIAL AND HEAVY RAINFALL
MENTIONED AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

ANY REMAINING RAINFALL SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN BY SUNDAY MORNING AS
THE SFC LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSH EAST OF KY. BEHIND THIS...
SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR AS DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
EVENING...ALLOWING FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY TO RECEIVE A BREAK FROM THE
WET WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK.  THIS IS DUE TO AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

A LARGE CUTOFF LOW WILL THEN GRADUALLY MOVE EWD FROM TX ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN US WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES EWD ITS
ENERGY IS FORECASTED TO GET WRAPPED INTO A DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH. THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE PAST
COUPLE OF RUNS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...WHERE THE ECMWF
SOLUTION HAS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A TRACK SIMILAR
TO THAT OF THE GFS. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF SOLUTION KEEPS THE LOW CUT
OFF AND SEPARATE FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH...CREATING QUITE A
BIT MORE PRECIP THAN THE GFS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.  WITH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTING IN THIS PART OF
THE EXTENDED...DECIDED TO KEEP PRECIP IN DURING THE WED/THURS TIME
FRAME...AND STUCK CLOSE TO THE CR SUPERBLEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL AND STAY IN THE 60S FOR
HIGHS AND IN THE 40S FOR LOWS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. DURING THE
DRIER PERIODS...TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 202 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT AT TAF ISSUANCE...BUT WILL DEGRADE TO
MVFR FROM SW TO NE BETWEEN ABOUT 06Z AND 14Z AS RAIN DEVELOPS. IFR
IS ALSO EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. STEADY
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE REPLACED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THEY WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATE IN THE DAY
AND THIS EVENING. SOME LOCATIONS MAY DESCEND BACK TO IFR WITH THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...HAL





000
FXUS63 KJKL 250602
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
202 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 202 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...TEMPS HAVE NOT DROPPED OFF
AS QUICKLY AS WAS FORECAST. HAVE RAISED OVERNIGHT FORECAST MIN
TEMPS A BIT...ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN VALLEYS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1050 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

DID AN UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE POPS AND WX THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT BASED ON THE NEWEST HRRR AND NAM12 GUIDANCE AS WELL AS
CURRENT RADAR/OBS. ALSO MATCHED UP THE HOURLY T AND TD GRIDS PER
THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS...WHERE A 5 DEGREE OR SO RIDGE TO VALLEY
SPLIT CURRENTLY EXISTS IN THE EAST. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO
THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS...ALONG WITH THE ISSUANCE OF A FRESHENED
SET OF ZONES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CLINGING ON IN THE FAR EAST
IN THE FACE OF AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...POISED TO
BRING SVR WX TO KY LATER ON SATURDAY...FROM THE WEST. THIS
WESTERN LOW/S WARM FRONT WILL SWING TOWARD THE AREA BY DAWN...
AFFECTING THE FAR SOUTHWEST INITIALLY THEN LIFTING DEEPER INTO
EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. THE PCPN WILL HAVE A TOUGH
TIME REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE BULK OF THE
NIGHT AS THE VERY DRY LOWER ATMOSPHERE ONLY SLOWLY SATURATES...
DESPITE THE HRRR/NAM12 INDICATIONS. IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...EXPECT
THE EASTERN VALLEYS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY FOLLOWING SUNSET...EVEN
WITH THE THIN HIGH CLOUDS NOW IN PLACE OVERHEAD. ELSEWHERE...
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP THROUGH THE NIGHT...MUCH WARMER THAN
LAST NIGHT. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO NUDGE TEMPS IN THE
EASTERN VALLEYS DOWN A BIT...BUT EXPECT THEM TO MIX OUT BY DAWN AS
THE AIR SATURATES AND SHOWERS PUSH OVER THIS PART OF THE STATE. IN
ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT FOR SATURDAY...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL DEPENDING ON THE TRACKS OF THE INDIVIDUAL CELLS AND/OR AN
MCS TRACKING ACROSS THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING THAT
CERTAINLY LOOKS POSSIBLE. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO
THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER AT THIS TIME IS BEGINNING TO STREAM INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
THIS EVENING. THIS IS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OUT WEST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA WILL
LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT NEARLY UNIFORM WITH SOUTHERLY
WARM AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT THIS TIME
OVERNIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS
IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND MOVING NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING
SHOWERS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY AFTERWARD.

HEADING INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS SATURDAY MORNING...THE MAIN SURFACE
LOW BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE
MIDWEST WITH SOME INSTABILITY BEGINNING TO ENTER THE SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES AND THIS MAY LEAD TO A FEW EARLY NON SEVERE STORMS AND
MAY NEED TO ADD THUNDER TO THE TONIGHT PERIOD OF THE HWO. HEADING
INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY...AFTER EARLIER RAINFALL HAS MOVED
THROUGH...SOME CLEARING SKIES AND RECOVERING ENERGY AND
DESTABILIZATION WILL THEN OCCUR WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AROUND
1000 TO 1500 J/KG OVER SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY BY THE 18Z TIME
FRAME. THIS ALSO WITH SOME 60 KNOT SFC TO 6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR SOME ROTATING STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. DUE TO THIS
THREAT SPC HAS PUT THE SOUTHERN AREA IN AN ENHANCED THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER AND HAVE PUT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO AND MAY NEED AN
SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT IN DETAIL. THE ONLY THREAT THAT IS A
BIT QUESTIONABLE TOMORROW WILL BE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. THOUGH
THE LAST HEAVY RAINFALL WAS LONG ENOUGH AGO THAT MOST PLACES HAVE
BEEN ALLOWED TO DRAIN AND DRY OUT. AS WELL...GREEN HAS GONE INTO
FULL SWING ACROSS THE AREA ALLEVIATING THE RUNOFF POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER...THE DISCRETE SUPER CELL POTENTIAL WILL ADD TO THE THREAT
OF FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS IF AN MCS DEVELOPS BY LATE IN THE
EVENING ON SATURDAY. MAY NEED TO EVALUATE THIS DURING THE NEXT
MODEL RUN.

HEADING INTO SATURDAY EVENING...THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH TO
THE NORTHEAST AND THEN THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS RIGHT ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY WITH ANOTHER STRONG SHOT OF RAINFALL WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH
TO INITIATE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. HAVE ADJUSTED THE QPF FOR THE
00Z TO 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT PERIOD FOR THIS RAINFALL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE LESSENING BY 06Z TO 12Z RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE EVENT
WILL BE WINDING DOWN. FOR NOW...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE AND
FLOOD THREAT IN THE HWO AND MAY NEED AN SPS TO FURTHER HIGHLIGHT
THIS. THE ZFP WILL HAVE SEVERE POTENTIAL AND HEAVY RAINFALL
MENTIONED AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

ANY REMAINING RAINFALL SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN BY SUNDAY MORNING AS
THE SFC LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSH EAST OF KY. BEHIND THIS...
SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR AS DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
EVENING...ALLOWING FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY TO RECEIVE A BREAK FROM THE
WET WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK.  THIS IS DUE TO AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

A LARGE CUTOFF LOW WILL THEN GRADUALLY MOVE EWD FROM TX ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN US WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES EWD ITS
ENERGY IS FORECASTED TO GET WRAPPED INTO A DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH. THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE PAST
COUPLE OF RUNS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...WHERE THE ECMWF
SOLUTION HAS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A TRACK SIMILAR
TO THAT OF THE GFS. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF SOLUTION KEEPS THE LOW CUT
OFF AND SEPARATE FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH...CREATING QUITE A
BIT MORE PRECIP THAN THE GFS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.  WITH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTING IN THIS PART OF
THE EXTENDED...DECIDED TO KEEP PRECIP IN DURING THE WED/THURS TIME
FRAME...AND STUCK CLOSE TO THE CR SUPERBLEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL AND STAY IN THE 60S FOR
HIGHS AND IN THE 40S FOR LOWS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. DURING THE
DRIER PERIODS...TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 202 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT AT TAF ISSUANCE...BUT WILL DEGRADE TO
MVFR FROM SW TO NE BETWEEN ABOUT 06Z AND 14Z AS RAIN DEVELOPS. IFR
IS ALSO EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. STEADY
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE REPLACED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THEY WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATE IN THE DAY
AND THIS EVENING. SOME LOCATIONS MAY DESCEND BACK TO IFR WITH THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...HAL




000
FXUS63 KJKL 250250 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1050 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

DID AN UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE POPS AND WX THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT BASED ON THE NEWEST HRRR AND NAM12 GUIDANCE AS WELL AS
CURRENT RADAR/OBS. ALSO MATCHED UP THE HOURLY T AND TD GRIDS PER
THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS...WHERE A 5 DEGREE OR SO RIDGE TO VALLEY
SPLIT CURRENTLY EXISTS IN THE EAST. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO
THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS...ALONG WITH THE ISSUANCE OF A FRESHENED
SET OF ZONES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CLINGING ON IN THE FAR EAST
IN THE FACE OF AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...POISED TO
BRING SVR WX TO KY LATER ON SATURDAY...FROM THE WEST. THIS
WESTERN LOW/S WARM FRONT WILL SWING TOWARD THE AREA BY DAWN...
AFFECTING THE FAR SOUTHWEST INITIALLY THEN LIFTING DEEPER INTO
EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. THE PCPN WILL HAVE A TOUGH
TIME REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE BULK OF THE
NIGHT AS THE VERY DRY LOWER ATMOSPHERE ONLY SLOWLY SATURATES...
DESPITE THE HRRR/NAM12 INDICATIONS. IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...EXPECT
THE EASTERN VALLEYS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY FOLLOWING SUNSET...EVEN
WITH THE THIN HIGH CLOUDS NOW IN PLACE OVERHEAD. ELSEWHERE...
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP THROUGH THE NIGHT...MUCH WARMER THAN
LAST NIGHT. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO NUDGE TEMPS IN THE
EASTERN VALLEYS DOWN A BIT...BUT EXPECT THEM TO MIX OUT BY DAWN AS
THE AIR SATURATES AND SHOWERS PUSH OVER THIS PART OF THE STATE. IN
ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT FOR SATURDAY...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL DEPENDING ON THE TRACKS OF THE INDIVIDUAL CELLS AND/OR AN
MCS TRACKING ACROSS THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING THAT
CERTAINLY LOOKS POSSIBLE. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO
THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER AT THIS TIME IS BEGINNING TO STREAM INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
THIS EVENING. THIS IS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OUT WEST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA WILL
LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT NEARLY UNIFORM WITH SOUTHERLY
WARM AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT THIS TIME
OVERNIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS
IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND MOVING NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING
SHOWERS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY AFTERWARD.

HEADING INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS SATURDAY MORNING...THE MAIN SURFACE
LOW BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE
MIDWEST WITH SOME INSTABILITY BEGINNING TO ENTER THE SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES AND THIS MAY LEAD TO A FEW EARLY NON SEVERE STORMS AND
MAY NEED TO ADD THUNDER TO THE TONIGHT PERIOD OF THE HWO. HEADING
INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY...AFTER EARLIER RAINFALL HAS MOVED
THROUGH...SOME CLEARING SKIES AND RECOVERING ENERGY AND
DESTABILIZATION WILL THEN OCCUR WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AROUND
1000 TO 1500 J/KG OVER SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY BY THE 18Z TIME
FRAME. THIS ALSO WITH SOME 60 KNOT SFC TO 6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR SOME ROTATING STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. DUE TO THIS
THREAT SPC HAS PUT THE SOUTHERN AREA IN AN ENHANCED THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER AND HAVE PUT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO AND MAY NEED AN
SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT IN DETAIL. THE ONLY THREAT THAT IS A
BIT QUESTIONABLE TOMORROW WILL BE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. THOUGH
THE LAST HEAVY RAINFALL WAS LONG ENOUGH AGO THAT MOST PLACES HAVE
BEEN ALLOWED TO DRAIN AND DRY OUT. AS WELL...GREEN HAS GONE INTO
FULL SWING ACROSS THE AREA ALLEVIATING THE RUNOFF POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER...THE DISCRETE SUPER CELL POTENTIAL WILL ADD TO THE THREAT
OF FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS IF AN MCS DEVELOPS BY LATE IN THE
EVENING ON SATURDAY. MAY NEED TO EVALUATE THIS DURING THE NEXT
MODEL RUN.

HEADING INTO SATURDAY EVENING...THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH TO
THE NORTHEAST AND THEN THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS RIGHT ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY WITH ANOTHER STRONG SHOT OF RAINFALL WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH
TO INITIATE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. HAVE ADJUSTED THE QPF FOR THE
00Z TO 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT PERIOD FOR THIS RAINFALL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE LESSENING BY 06Z TO 12Z RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE EVENT
WILL BE WINDING DOWN. FOR NOW...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE AND
FLOOD THREAT IN THE HWO AND MAY NEED AN SPS TO FURTHER HIGHLIGHT
THIS. THE ZFP WILL HAVE SEVERE POTENTIAL AND HEAVY RAINFALL
MENTIONED AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

ANY REMAINING RAINFALL SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN BY SUNDAY MORNING AS
THE SFC LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSH EAST OF KY. BEHIND THIS...
SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR AS DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
EVENING...ALLOWING FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY TO RECEIVE A BREAK FROM THE
WET WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK.  THIS IS DUE TO AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

A LARGE CUTOFF LOW WILL THEN GRADUALLY MOVE EWD FROM TX ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN US WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES EWD ITS
ENERGY IS FORECASTED TO GET WRAPPED INTO A DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH. THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE PAST
COUPLE OF RUNS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...WHERE THE ECMWF
SOLUTION HAS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A TRACK SIMILAR
TO THAT OF THE GFS. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF SOLUTION KEEPS THE LOW CUT
OFF AND SEPARATE FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH...CREATING QUITE A
BIT MORE PRECIP THAN THE GFS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.  WITH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTING IN THIS PART OF
THE EXTENDED...DECIDED TO KEEP PRECIP IN DURING THE WED/THURS TIME
FRAME...AND STUCK CLOSE TO THE CR SUPERBLEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL AND STAY IN THE 60S FOR
HIGHS AND IN THE 40S FOR LOWS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. DURING THE
DRIER PERIODS...TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. RAIN WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND
CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR TOWARD DAWN. ALTHOUGH A STORM OR TWO WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE INITIAL ARRIVAL AND PROGRESS OF THE WARM
FRONT...THE BETTER THREAT WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON. DURING THIS
TIME...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...SOME OF WHICH MAY
BECOME SEVERE. WITH THESE STORMS...CONDITIONS CAN BE TEMPORARILY
REDUCED TO NEAR ALTERNATE MINS OR BELOW DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH
OF THE STORM. FOR THIS...WENT WITH VCTS BETWEEN 15 AND 00Z WITH
LATER UPDATES BETTER ABLE TO REFINE TIMING OF THE WORST
CONDITIONS. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST AND
PICKING UP TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...GREIF





000
FXUS63 KJKL 250250 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1050 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

DID AN UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE POPS AND WX THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT BASED ON THE NEWEST HRRR AND NAM12 GUIDANCE AS WELL AS
CURRENT RADAR/OBS. ALSO MATCHED UP THE HOURLY T AND TD GRIDS PER
THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS...WHERE A 5 DEGREE OR SO RIDGE TO VALLEY
SPLIT CURRENTLY EXISTS IN THE EAST. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO
THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS...ALONG WITH THE ISSUANCE OF A FRESHENED
SET OF ZONES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CLINGING ON IN THE FAR EAST
IN THE FACE OF AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...POISED TO
BRING SVR WX TO KY LATER ON SATURDAY...FROM THE WEST. THIS
WESTERN LOW/S WARM FRONT WILL SWING TOWARD THE AREA BY DAWN...
AFFECTING THE FAR SOUTHWEST INITIALLY THEN LIFTING DEEPER INTO
EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. THE PCPN WILL HAVE A TOUGH
TIME REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE BULK OF THE
NIGHT AS THE VERY DRY LOWER ATMOSPHERE ONLY SLOWLY SATURATES...
DESPITE THE HRRR/NAM12 INDICATIONS. IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...EXPECT
THE EASTERN VALLEYS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY FOLLOWING SUNSET...EVEN
WITH THE THIN HIGH CLOUDS NOW IN PLACE OVERHEAD. ELSEWHERE...
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP THROUGH THE NIGHT...MUCH WARMER THAN
LAST NIGHT. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO NUDGE TEMPS IN THE
EASTERN VALLEYS DOWN A BIT...BUT EXPECT THEM TO MIX OUT BY DAWN AS
THE AIR SATURATES AND SHOWERS PUSH OVER THIS PART OF THE STATE. IN
ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT FOR SATURDAY...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL DEPENDING ON THE TRACKS OF THE INDIVIDUAL CELLS AND/OR AN
MCS TRACKING ACROSS THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING THAT
CERTAINLY LOOKS POSSIBLE. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO
THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER AT THIS TIME IS BEGINNING TO STREAM INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
THIS EVENING. THIS IS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OUT WEST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA WILL
LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT NEARLY UNIFORM WITH SOUTHERLY
WARM AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT THIS TIME
OVERNIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS
IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND MOVING NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING
SHOWERS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY AFTERWARD.

HEADING INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS SATURDAY MORNING...THE MAIN SURFACE
LOW BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE
MIDWEST WITH SOME INSTABILITY BEGINNING TO ENTER THE SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES AND THIS MAY LEAD TO A FEW EARLY NON SEVERE STORMS AND
MAY NEED TO ADD THUNDER TO THE TONIGHT PERIOD OF THE HWO. HEADING
INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY...AFTER EARLIER RAINFALL HAS MOVED
THROUGH...SOME CLEARING SKIES AND RECOVERING ENERGY AND
DESTABILIZATION WILL THEN OCCUR WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AROUND
1000 TO 1500 J/KG OVER SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY BY THE 18Z TIME
FRAME. THIS ALSO WITH SOME 60 KNOT SFC TO 6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR SOME ROTATING STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. DUE TO THIS
THREAT SPC HAS PUT THE SOUTHERN AREA IN AN ENHANCED THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER AND HAVE PUT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO AND MAY NEED AN
SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT IN DETAIL. THE ONLY THREAT THAT IS A
BIT QUESTIONABLE TOMORROW WILL BE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. THOUGH
THE LAST HEAVY RAINFALL WAS LONG ENOUGH AGO THAT MOST PLACES HAVE
BEEN ALLOWED TO DRAIN AND DRY OUT. AS WELL...GREEN HAS GONE INTO
FULL SWING ACROSS THE AREA ALLEVIATING THE RUNOFF POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER...THE DISCRETE SUPER CELL POTENTIAL WILL ADD TO THE THREAT
OF FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS IF AN MCS DEVELOPS BY LATE IN THE
EVENING ON SATURDAY. MAY NEED TO EVALUATE THIS DURING THE NEXT
MODEL RUN.

HEADING INTO SATURDAY EVENING...THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH TO
THE NORTHEAST AND THEN THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS RIGHT ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY WITH ANOTHER STRONG SHOT OF RAINFALL WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH
TO INITIATE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. HAVE ADJUSTED THE QPF FOR THE
00Z TO 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT PERIOD FOR THIS RAINFALL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE LESSENING BY 06Z TO 12Z RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE EVENT
WILL BE WINDING DOWN. FOR NOW...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE AND
FLOOD THREAT IN THE HWO AND MAY NEED AN SPS TO FURTHER HIGHLIGHT
THIS. THE ZFP WILL HAVE SEVERE POTENTIAL AND HEAVY RAINFALL
MENTIONED AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

ANY REMAINING RAINFALL SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN BY SUNDAY MORNING AS
THE SFC LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSH EAST OF KY. BEHIND THIS...
SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR AS DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
EVENING...ALLOWING FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY TO RECEIVE A BREAK FROM THE
WET WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK.  THIS IS DUE TO AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

A LARGE CUTOFF LOW WILL THEN GRADUALLY MOVE EWD FROM TX ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN US WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES EWD ITS
ENERGY IS FORECASTED TO GET WRAPPED INTO A DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH. THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE PAST
COUPLE OF RUNS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...WHERE THE ECMWF
SOLUTION HAS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A TRACK SIMILAR
TO THAT OF THE GFS. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF SOLUTION KEEPS THE LOW CUT
OFF AND SEPARATE FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH...CREATING QUITE A
BIT MORE PRECIP THAN THE GFS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.  WITH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTING IN THIS PART OF
THE EXTENDED...DECIDED TO KEEP PRECIP IN DURING THE WED/THURS TIME
FRAME...AND STUCK CLOSE TO THE CR SUPERBLEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL AND STAY IN THE 60S FOR
HIGHS AND IN THE 40S FOR LOWS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. DURING THE
DRIER PERIODS...TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. RAIN WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND
CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR TOWARD DAWN. ALTHOUGH A STORM OR TWO WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE INITIAL ARRIVAL AND PROGRESS OF THE WARM
FRONT...THE BETTER THREAT WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON. DURING THIS
TIME...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...SOME OF WHICH MAY
BECOME SEVERE. WITH THESE STORMS...CONDITIONS CAN BE TEMPORARILY
REDUCED TO NEAR ALTERNATE MINS OR BELOW DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH
OF THE STORM. FOR THIS...WENT WITH VCTS BETWEEN 15 AND 00Z WITH
LATER UPDATES BETTER ABLE TO REFINE TIMING OF THE WORST
CONDITIONS. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST AND
PICKING UP TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...GREIF




000
FXUS63 KJKL 242355 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
755 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CLINGING ON IN THE FAR EAST
IN THE FACE OF AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...POISED TO
BRING SVR WX TO KY LATER ON SATURDAY...FROM THE WEST. THIS
WESTERN LOW/S WARM FRONT WILL SWING TOWARD THE AREA BY DAWN...
AFFECTING THE FAR SOUTHWEST INITIALLY THEN LIFTING DEEPER INTO
EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. THE PCPN WILL HAVE A TOUGH
TIME REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE BULK OF THE
NIGHT AS THE VERY DRY LOWER ATMOSPHERE ONLY SLOWLY SATURATES...
DESPITE THE HRRR/NAM12 INDICATIONS. IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...EXPECT
THE EASTERN VALLEYS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY FOLLOWING SUNSET...EVEN
WITH THE THIN HIGH CLOUDS NOW IN PLACE OVERHEAD. ELSEWHERE...
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP THROUGH THE NIGHT...MUCH WARMER THAN
LAST NIGHT. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO NUDGE TEMPS IN THE
EASTERN VALLEYS DOWN A BIT...BUT EXPECT THEM TO MIX OUT BY DAWN AS
THE AIR SATURATES AND SHOWERS PUSH OVER THIS PART OF THE STATE. IN
ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT FOR SATURDAY...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL DEPENDING ON THE TRACKS OF THE INDIVIDUAL CELLS AND/OR AN
MCS TRACKING ACROSS THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING THAT
CERTAINLY LOOKS POSSIBLE. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO
THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER AT THIS TIME IS BEGINNING TO STREAM INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
THIS EVENING. THIS IS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OUT WEST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA WILL
LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT NEARLY UNIFORM WITH SOUTHERLY
WARM AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT THIS TIME
OVERNIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS
IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND MOVING NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING
SHOWERS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY AFTERWARD.

HEADING INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS SATURDAY MORNING...THE MAIN SURFACE
LOW BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE
MIDWEST WITH SOME INSTABILITY BEGINNING TO ENTER THE SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES AND THIS MAY LEAD TO A FEW EARLY NON SEVERE STORMS AND
MAY NEED TO ADD THUNDER TO THE TONIGHT PERIOD OF THE HWO. HEADING
INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY...AFTER EARLIER RAINFALL HAS MOVED
THROUGH...SOME CLEARING SKIES AND RECOVERING ENERGY AND
DESTABILIZATION WILL THEN OCCUR WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AROUND
1000 TO 1500 J/KG OVER SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY BY THE 18Z TIME
FRAME. THIS ALSO WITH SOME 60 KNOT SFC TO 6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR SOME ROTATING STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. DUE TO THIS
THREAT SPC HAS PUT THE SOUTHERN AREA IN AN ENHANCED THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER AND HAVE PUT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO AND MAY NEED AN
SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT IN DETAIL. THE ONLY THREAT THAT IS A
BIT QUESTIONABLE TOMORROW WILL BE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. THOUGH
THE LAST HEAVY RAINFALL WAS LONG ENOUGH AGO THAT MOST PLACES HAVE
BEEN ALLOWED TO DRAIN AND DRY OUT. AS WELL...GREEN HAS GONE INTO
FULL SWING ACROSS THE AREA ALLEVIATING THE RUNOFF POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER...THE DISCRETE SUPER CELL POTENTIAL WILL ADD TO THE THREAT
OF FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS IF AN MCS DEVELOPS BY LATE IN THE
EVENING ON SATURDAY. MAY NEED TO EVALUATE THIS DURING THE NEXT
MODEL RUN.

HEADING INTO SATURDAY EVENING...THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH TO
THE NORTHEAST AND THEN THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS RIGHT ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY WITH ANOTHER STRONG SHOT OF RAINFALL WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH
TO INITIATE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. HAVE ADJUSTED THE QPF FOR THE
00Z TO 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT PERIOD FOR THIS RAINFALL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE LESSENING BY 06Z TO 12Z RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE EVENT
WILL BE WINDING DOWN. FOR NOW...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE AND
FLOOD THREAT IN THE HWO AND MAY NEED AN SPS TO FURTHER HIGHLIGHT
THIS. THE ZFP WILL HAVE SEVERE POTENTIAL AND HEAVY RAINFALL
MENTIONED AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

ANY REMAINING RAINFALL SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN BY SUNDAY MORNING AS
THE SFC LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSH EAST OF KY. BEHIND THIS...
SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR AS DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
EVENING...ALLOWING FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY TO RECEIVE A BREAK FROM THE
WET WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK.  THIS IS DUE TO AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

A LARGE CUTOFF LOW WILL THEN GRADUALLY MOVE EWD FROM TX ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN US WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES EWD ITS
ENERGY IS FORECASTED TO GET WRAPPED INTO A DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH. THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE PAST
COUPLE OF RUNS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...WHERE THE ECMWF
SOLUTION HAS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A TRACK SIMILAR
TO THAT OF THE GFS. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF SOLUTION KEEPS THE LOW CUT
OFF AND SEPARATE FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH...CREATING QUITE A
BIT MORE PRECIP THAN THE GFS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.  WITH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTING IN THIS PART OF
THE EXTENDED...DECIDED TO KEEP PRECIP IN DURING THE WED/THURS TIME
FRAME...AND STUCK CLOSE TO THE CR SUPERBLEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL AND STAY IN THE 60S FOR
HIGHS AND IN THE 40S FOR LOWS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. DURING THE
DRIER PERIODS...TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. RAIN WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND
CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR TOWARD DAWN. ALTHOUGH A STORM OR TWO WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE INITIAL ARRIVAL AND PROGRESS OF THE WARM
FRONT...THE BETTER THREAT WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON. DURING THIS
TIME...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...SOME OF WHICH MAY
BECOME SEVERE. WITH THESE STORMS...CONDITIONS CAN BE TEMPORARILY
REDUCED TO NEAR ALTERNATE MINS OR BELOW DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH
OF THE STORM. FOR THIS...WENT WITH VCTS BETWEEN 15 AND 00Z WITH
LATER UPDATES BETTER ABLE TO REFINE TIMING OF THE WORST
CONDITIONS. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST AND
PICKING UP TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...GREIF




000
FXUS63 KJKL 242355 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
755 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CLINGING ON IN THE FAR EAST
IN THE FACE OF AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...POISED TO
BRING SVR WX TO KY LATER ON SATURDAY...FROM THE WEST. THIS
WESTERN LOW/S WARM FRONT WILL SWING TOWARD THE AREA BY DAWN...
AFFECTING THE FAR SOUTHWEST INITIALLY THEN LIFTING DEEPER INTO
EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. THE PCPN WILL HAVE A TOUGH
TIME REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE BULK OF THE
NIGHT AS THE VERY DRY LOWER ATMOSPHERE ONLY SLOWLY SATURATES...
DESPITE THE HRRR/NAM12 INDICATIONS. IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...EXPECT
THE EASTERN VALLEYS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY FOLLOWING SUNSET...EVEN
WITH THE THIN HIGH CLOUDS NOW IN PLACE OVERHEAD. ELSEWHERE...
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP THROUGH THE NIGHT...MUCH WARMER THAN
LAST NIGHT. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO NUDGE TEMPS IN THE
EASTERN VALLEYS DOWN A BIT...BUT EXPECT THEM TO MIX OUT BY DAWN AS
THE AIR SATURATES AND SHOWERS PUSH OVER THIS PART OF THE STATE. IN
ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT FOR SATURDAY...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL DEPENDING ON THE TRACKS OF THE INDIVIDUAL CELLS AND/OR AN
MCS TRACKING ACROSS THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING THAT
CERTAINLY LOOKS POSSIBLE. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO
THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER AT THIS TIME IS BEGINNING TO STREAM INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
THIS EVENING. THIS IS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OUT WEST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA WILL
LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT NEARLY UNIFORM WITH SOUTHERLY
WARM AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT THIS TIME
OVERNIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS
IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND MOVING NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING
SHOWERS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY AFTERWARD.

HEADING INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS SATURDAY MORNING...THE MAIN SURFACE
LOW BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE
MIDWEST WITH SOME INSTABILITY BEGINNING TO ENTER THE SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES AND THIS MAY LEAD TO A FEW EARLY NON SEVERE STORMS AND
MAY NEED TO ADD THUNDER TO THE TONIGHT PERIOD OF THE HWO. HEADING
INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY...AFTER EARLIER RAINFALL HAS MOVED
THROUGH...SOME CLEARING SKIES AND RECOVERING ENERGY AND
DESTABILIZATION WILL THEN OCCUR WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AROUND
1000 TO 1500 J/KG OVER SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY BY THE 18Z TIME
FRAME. THIS ALSO WITH SOME 60 KNOT SFC TO 6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR SOME ROTATING STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. DUE TO THIS
THREAT SPC HAS PUT THE SOUTHERN AREA IN AN ENHANCED THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER AND HAVE PUT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO AND MAY NEED AN
SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT IN DETAIL. THE ONLY THREAT THAT IS A
BIT QUESTIONABLE TOMORROW WILL BE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. THOUGH
THE LAST HEAVY RAINFALL WAS LONG ENOUGH AGO THAT MOST PLACES HAVE
BEEN ALLOWED TO DRAIN AND DRY OUT. AS WELL...GREEN HAS GONE INTO
FULL SWING ACROSS THE AREA ALLEVIATING THE RUNOFF POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER...THE DISCRETE SUPER CELL POTENTIAL WILL ADD TO THE THREAT
OF FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS IF AN MCS DEVELOPS BY LATE IN THE
EVENING ON SATURDAY. MAY NEED TO EVALUATE THIS DURING THE NEXT
MODEL RUN.

HEADING INTO SATURDAY EVENING...THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH TO
THE NORTHEAST AND THEN THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS RIGHT ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY WITH ANOTHER STRONG SHOT OF RAINFALL WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH
TO INITIATE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. HAVE ADJUSTED THE QPF FOR THE
00Z TO 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT PERIOD FOR THIS RAINFALL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE LESSENING BY 06Z TO 12Z RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE EVENT
WILL BE WINDING DOWN. FOR NOW...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE AND
FLOOD THREAT IN THE HWO AND MAY NEED AN SPS TO FURTHER HIGHLIGHT
THIS. THE ZFP WILL HAVE SEVERE POTENTIAL AND HEAVY RAINFALL
MENTIONED AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

ANY REMAINING RAINFALL SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN BY SUNDAY MORNING AS
THE SFC LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSH EAST OF KY. BEHIND THIS...
SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR AS DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
EVENING...ALLOWING FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY TO RECEIVE A BREAK FROM THE
WET WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK.  THIS IS DUE TO AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

A LARGE CUTOFF LOW WILL THEN GRADUALLY MOVE EWD FROM TX ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN US WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES EWD ITS
ENERGY IS FORECASTED TO GET WRAPPED INTO A DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH. THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE PAST
COUPLE OF RUNS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...WHERE THE ECMWF
SOLUTION HAS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A TRACK SIMILAR
TO THAT OF THE GFS. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF SOLUTION KEEPS THE LOW CUT
OFF AND SEPARATE FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH...CREATING QUITE A
BIT MORE PRECIP THAN THE GFS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.  WITH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTING IN THIS PART OF
THE EXTENDED...DECIDED TO KEEP PRECIP IN DURING THE WED/THURS TIME
FRAME...AND STUCK CLOSE TO THE CR SUPERBLEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL AND STAY IN THE 60S FOR
HIGHS AND IN THE 40S FOR LOWS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. DURING THE
DRIER PERIODS...TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. RAIN WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND
CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR TOWARD DAWN. ALTHOUGH A STORM OR TWO WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE INITIAL ARRIVAL AND PROGRESS OF THE WARM
FRONT...THE BETTER THREAT WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON. DURING THIS
TIME...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...SOME OF WHICH MAY
BECOME SEVERE. WITH THESE STORMS...CONDITIONS CAN BE TEMPORARILY
REDUCED TO NEAR ALTERNATE MINS OR BELOW DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH
OF THE STORM. FOR THIS...WENT WITH VCTS BETWEEN 15 AND 00Z WITH
LATER UPDATES BETTER ABLE TO REFINE TIMING OF THE WORST
CONDITIONS. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST AND
PICKING UP TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...GREIF





000
FXUS63 KJKL 242355 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
755 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CLINGING ON IN THE FAR EAST
IN THE FACE OF AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...POISED TO
BRING SVR WX TO KY LATER ON SATURDAY...FROM THE WEST. THIS
WESTERN LOW/S WARM FRONT WILL SWING TOWARD THE AREA BY DAWN...
AFFECTING THE FAR SOUTHWEST INITIALLY THEN LIFTING DEEPER INTO
EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. THE PCPN WILL HAVE A TOUGH
TIME REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE BULK OF THE
NIGHT AS THE VERY DRY LOWER ATMOSPHERE ONLY SLOWLY SATURATES...
DESPITE THE HRRR/NAM12 INDICATIONS. IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...EXPECT
THE EASTERN VALLEYS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY FOLLOWING SUNSET...EVEN
WITH THE THIN HIGH CLOUDS NOW IN PLACE OVERHEAD. ELSEWHERE...
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP THROUGH THE NIGHT...MUCH WARMER THAN
LAST NIGHT. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO NUDGE TEMPS IN THE
EASTERN VALLEYS DOWN A BIT...BUT EXPECT THEM TO MIX OUT BY DAWN AS
THE AIR SATURATES AND SHOWERS PUSH OVER THIS PART OF THE STATE. IN
ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT FOR SATURDAY...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL DEPENDING ON THE TRACKS OF THE INDIVIDUAL CELLS AND/OR AN
MCS TRACKING ACROSS THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING THAT
CERTAINLY LOOKS POSSIBLE. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO
THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER AT THIS TIME IS BEGINNING TO STREAM INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
THIS EVENING. THIS IS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OUT WEST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA WILL
LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT NEARLY UNIFORM WITH SOUTHERLY
WARM AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT THIS TIME
OVERNIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS
IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND MOVING NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING
SHOWERS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY AFTERWARD.

HEADING INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS SATURDAY MORNING...THE MAIN SURFACE
LOW BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE
MIDWEST WITH SOME INSTABILITY BEGINNING TO ENTER THE SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES AND THIS MAY LEAD TO A FEW EARLY NON SEVERE STORMS AND
MAY NEED TO ADD THUNDER TO THE TONIGHT PERIOD OF THE HWO. HEADING
INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY...AFTER EARLIER RAINFALL HAS MOVED
THROUGH...SOME CLEARING SKIES AND RECOVERING ENERGY AND
DESTABILIZATION WILL THEN OCCUR WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AROUND
1000 TO 1500 J/KG OVER SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY BY THE 18Z TIME
FRAME. THIS ALSO WITH SOME 60 KNOT SFC TO 6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR SOME ROTATING STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. DUE TO THIS
THREAT SPC HAS PUT THE SOUTHERN AREA IN AN ENHANCED THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER AND HAVE PUT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO AND MAY NEED AN
SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT IN DETAIL. THE ONLY THREAT THAT IS A
BIT QUESTIONABLE TOMORROW WILL BE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. THOUGH
THE LAST HEAVY RAINFALL WAS LONG ENOUGH AGO THAT MOST PLACES HAVE
BEEN ALLOWED TO DRAIN AND DRY OUT. AS WELL...GREEN HAS GONE INTO
FULL SWING ACROSS THE AREA ALLEVIATING THE RUNOFF POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER...THE DISCRETE SUPER CELL POTENTIAL WILL ADD TO THE THREAT
OF FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS IF AN MCS DEVELOPS BY LATE IN THE
EVENING ON SATURDAY. MAY NEED TO EVALUATE THIS DURING THE NEXT
MODEL RUN.

HEADING INTO SATURDAY EVENING...THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH TO
THE NORTHEAST AND THEN THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS RIGHT ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY WITH ANOTHER STRONG SHOT OF RAINFALL WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH
TO INITIATE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. HAVE ADJUSTED THE QPF FOR THE
00Z TO 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT PERIOD FOR THIS RAINFALL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE LESSENING BY 06Z TO 12Z RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE EVENT
WILL BE WINDING DOWN. FOR NOW...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE AND
FLOOD THREAT IN THE HWO AND MAY NEED AN SPS TO FURTHER HIGHLIGHT
THIS. THE ZFP WILL HAVE SEVERE POTENTIAL AND HEAVY RAINFALL
MENTIONED AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

ANY REMAINING RAINFALL SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN BY SUNDAY MORNING AS
THE SFC LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSH EAST OF KY. BEHIND THIS...
SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR AS DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
EVENING...ALLOWING FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY TO RECEIVE A BREAK FROM THE
WET WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK.  THIS IS DUE TO AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

A LARGE CUTOFF LOW WILL THEN GRADUALLY MOVE EWD FROM TX ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN US WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES EWD ITS
ENERGY IS FORECASTED TO GET WRAPPED INTO A DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH. THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE PAST
COUPLE OF RUNS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...WHERE THE ECMWF
SOLUTION HAS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A TRACK SIMILAR
TO THAT OF THE GFS. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF SOLUTION KEEPS THE LOW CUT
OFF AND SEPARATE FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH...CREATING QUITE A
BIT MORE PRECIP THAN THE GFS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.  WITH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTING IN THIS PART OF
THE EXTENDED...DECIDED TO KEEP PRECIP IN DURING THE WED/THURS TIME
FRAME...AND STUCK CLOSE TO THE CR SUPERBLEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL AND STAY IN THE 60S FOR
HIGHS AND IN THE 40S FOR LOWS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. DURING THE
DRIER PERIODS...TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. RAIN WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND
CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR TOWARD DAWN. ALTHOUGH A STORM OR TWO WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE INITIAL ARRIVAL AND PROGRESS OF THE WARM
FRONT...THE BETTER THREAT WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON. DURING THIS
TIME...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...SOME OF WHICH MAY
BECOME SEVERE. WITH THESE STORMS...CONDITIONS CAN BE TEMPORARILY
REDUCED TO NEAR ALTERNATE MINS OR BELOW DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH
OF THE STORM. FOR THIS...WENT WITH VCTS BETWEEN 15 AND 00Z WITH
LATER UPDATES BETTER ABLE TO REFINE TIMING OF THE WORST
CONDITIONS. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST AND
PICKING UP TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...GREIF





000
FXUS63 KJKL 241952
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
352 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER AT THIS TIME IS BEGINNING TO STREAM INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
THIS EVENING. THIS IS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OUT WEST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA WILL
LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT NEARLY UNIFORM WITH SOUTHERLY
WARM AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT THIS TIME
OVERNIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS
IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND MOVING NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING
SHOWERS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY AFTERWARD.

HEADING INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS SATURDAY MORNING...THE MAIN SURFACE
LOW BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE
MIDWEST WITH SOME INSTABILITY BEGINNING TO ENTER THE SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES AND THIS MAY LEAD TO A FEW EARLY NON SEVERE STORMS AND
MAY NEED TO ADD THUNDER TO THE TONIGHT PERIOD OF THE HWO. HEADING
INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY...AFTER EARLIER RAINFALL HAS MOVED
THROUGH...SOME CLEARING SKIES AND RECOVERING ENERGY AND
DESTABILIZATION WILL THEN OCCUR WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AROUND
1000 TO 1500 J/KG OVER SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY BY THE 18Z TIME
FRAME. THIS ALSO WITH SOME 60 KNOT SFC TO 6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR SOME ROTATING STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. DUE TO THIS
THREAT SPC HAS PUT THE SOUTHERN AREA IN AN ENHANCED THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER AND HAVE PUT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO AND MAY NEED AN
SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT IN DETAIL. THE ONLY THREAT THAT IS A
BIT QUESTIONABLE TOMORROW WILL BE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. THOUGH
THE LAST HEAVY RAINFALL WAS LONG ENOUGH AGO THAT MOST PLACES HAVE
BEEN ALLOWED TO DRAIN AND DRY OUT. AS WELL...GREEN HAS GONE INTO
FULL SWING ACROSS THE AREA ALLEVIATING THE RUNOFF POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER...THE DISCRETE SUPER CELL POTENTIAL WILL ADD TO THE THREAT
OF FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS IF AN MCS DEVELOPS BY LATE IN THE
EVENING ON SATURDAY. MAY NEED TO EVALUATE THIS DURING THE NEXT
MODEL RUN.

HEADING INTO SATURDAY EVENING...THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH TO
THE NORTHEAST AND THEN THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS RIGHT ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY WITH ANOTHER STRONG SHOT OF RAINFALL WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH
TO INITIATE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. HAVE ADJUSTED THE QPF FOR THE
00Z TO 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT PERIOD FOR THIS RAINFALL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE LESSENING BY 06Z TO 12Z RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE EVENT
WILL BE WINDING DOWN. FOR NOW...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE AND
FLOOD THREAT IN THE HWO AND MAY NEED AN SPS TO FURTHER HIGHLIGHT
THIS. THE ZFP WILL HAVE SEVERE POTENTIAL AND HEAVY RAINFALL
MENTIONED AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

ANY REMAINING RAINFALL SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN BY SUNDAY MORNING AS
THE SFC LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSH EAST OF KY. BEHIND THIS...
SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR AS DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
EVENING...ALLOWING FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY TO RECEIVE A BREAK FROM THE
WET WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK.  THIS IS DUE TO AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

A LARGE CUTOFF LOW WILL THEN GRADUALLY MOVE EWD FROM TX ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN US WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES EWD ITS
ENERGY IS FORECASTED TO GET WRAPPED INTO A DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH. THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE PAST
COUPLE OF RUNS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...WHERE THE ECMWF
SOLUTION HAS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A TRACK SIMILAR
TO THAT OF THE GFS. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF SOLUTION KEEPS THE LOW CUT
OFF AND SEPARATE FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH...CREATING QUITE A
BIT MORE PRECIP THAN THE GFS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.  WITH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTING IN THIS PART OF
THE EXTENDED...DECIDED TO KEEP PRECIP IN DURING THE WED/THURS TIME
FRAME...AND STUCK CLOSE TO THE CR SUPERBLEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL AND STAY IN THE 60S FOR
HIGHS AND IN THE 40S FOR LOWS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. DURING THE
DRIER PERIODS...TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. RAIN WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR
TOWARD DAWN. LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP...SOME OF WHICH MAY BECOME SEVERE. WITH THESE
STORMS...CONDITIONS CAN BE TEMPORARILY REDUCED TO NEAR ALTERNATE
MINS OR BELOW DEPENDING ON THE SEVERITY OF THE STORM. SO HAVE
LOWERED VIS TO ALTERNATE MINS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES WITH VCTS
BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...JVM/SHALLENBERGER




000
FXUS63 KJKL 241952
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
352 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER AT THIS TIME IS BEGINNING TO STREAM INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
THIS EVENING. THIS IS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OUT WEST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA WILL
LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT NEARLY UNIFORM WITH SOUTHERLY
WARM AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT THIS TIME
OVERNIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS
IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND MOVING NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING
SHOWERS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY AFTERWARD.

HEADING INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS SATURDAY MORNING...THE MAIN SURFACE
LOW BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE
MIDWEST WITH SOME INSTABILITY BEGINNING TO ENTER THE SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES AND THIS MAY LEAD TO A FEW EARLY NON SEVERE STORMS AND
MAY NEED TO ADD THUNDER TO THE TONIGHT PERIOD OF THE HWO. HEADING
INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY...AFTER EARLIER RAINFALL HAS MOVED
THROUGH...SOME CLEARING SKIES AND RECOVERING ENERGY AND
DESTABILIZATION WILL THEN OCCUR WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AROUND
1000 TO 1500 J/KG OVER SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY BY THE 18Z TIME
FRAME. THIS ALSO WITH SOME 60 KNOT SFC TO 6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR SOME ROTATING STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. DUE TO THIS
THREAT SPC HAS PUT THE SOUTHERN AREA IN AN ENHANCED THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER AND HAVE PUT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO AND MAY NEED AN
SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT IN DETAIL. THE ONLY THREAT THAT IS A
BIT QUESTIONABLE TOMORROW WILL BE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. THOUGH
THE LAST HEAVY RAINFALL WAS LONG ENOUGH AGO THAT MOST PLACES HAVE
BEEN ALLOWED TO DRAIN AND DRY OUT. AS WELL...GREEN HAS GONE INTO
FULL SWING ACROSS THE AREA ALLEVIATING THE RUNOFF POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER...THE DISCRETE SUPER CELL POTENTIAL WILL ADD TO THE THREAT
OF FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS IF AN MCS DEVELOPS BY LATE IN THE
EVENING ON SATURDAY. MAY NEED TO EVALUATE THIS DURING THE NEXT
MODEL RUN.

HEADING INTO SATURDAY EVENING...THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH TO
THE NORTHEAST AND THEN THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS RIGHT ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY WITH ANOTHER STRONG SHOT OF RAINFALL WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH
TO INITIATE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. HAVE ADJUSTED THE QPF FOR THE
00Z TO 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT PERIOD FOR THIS RAINFALL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE LESSENING BY 06Z TO 12Z RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE EVENT
WILL BE WINDING DOWN. FOR NOW...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE AND
FLOOD THREAT IN THE HWO AND MAY NEED AN SPS TO FURTHER HIGHLIGHT
THIS. THE ZFP WILL HAVE SEVERE POTENTIAL AND HEAVY RAINFALL
MENTIONED AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

ANY REMAINING RAINFALL SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN BY SUNDAY MORNING AS
THE SFC LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSH EAST OF KY. BEHIND THIS...
SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR AS DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
EVENING...ALLOWING FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY TO RECEIVE A BREAK FROM THE
WET WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK.  THIS IS DUE TO AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

A LARGE CUTOFF LOW WILL THEN GRADUALLY MOVE EWD FROM TX ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN US WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES EWD ITS
ENERGY IS FORECASTED TO GET WRAPPED INTO A DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH. THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE PAST
COUPLE OF RUNS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...WHERE THE ECMWF
SOLUTION HAS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A TRACK SIMILAR
TO THAT OF THE GFS. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF SOLUTION KEEPS THE LOW CUT
OFF AND SEPARATE FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH...CREATING QUITE A
BIT MORE PRECIP THAN THE GFS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.  WITH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTING IN THIS PART OF
THE EXTENDED...DECIDED TO KEEP PRECIP IN DURING THE WED/THURS TIME
FRAME...AND STUCK CLOSE TO THE CR SUPERBLEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL AND STAY IN THE 60S FOR
HIGHS AND IN THE 40S FOR LOWS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. DURING THE
DRIER PERIODS...TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. RAIN WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR
TOWARD DAWN. LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP...SOME OF WHICH MAY BECOME SEVERE. WITH THESE
STORMS...CONDITIONS CAN BE TEMPORARILY REDUCED TO NEAR ALTERNATE
MINS OR BELOW DEPENDING ON THE SEVERITY OF THE STORM. SO HAVE
LOWERED VIS TO ALTERNATE MINS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES WITH VCTS
BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...JVM/SHALLENBERGER





000
FXUS63 KJKL 241952
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
352 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER AT THIS TIME IS BEGINNING TO STREAM INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
THIS EVENING. THIS IS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OUT WEST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA WILL
LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT NEARLY UNIFORM WITH SOUTHERLY
WARM AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT THIS TIME
OVERNIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS
IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND MOVING NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING
SHOWERS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY AFTERWARD.

HEADING INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS SATURDAY MORNING...THE MAIN SURFACE
LOW BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE
MIDWEST WITH SOME INSTABILITY BEGINNING TO ENTER THE SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES AND THIS MAY LEAD TO A FEW EARLY NON SEVERE STORMS AND
MAY NEED TO ADD THUNDER TO THE TONIGHT PERIOD OF THE HWO. HEADING
INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY...AFTER EARLIER RAINFALL HAS MOVED
THROUGH...SOME CLEARING SKIES AND RECOVERING ENERGY AND
DESTABILIZATION WILL THEN OCCUR WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AROUND
1000 TO 1500 J/KG OVER SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY BY THE 18Z TIME
FRAME. THIS ALSO WITH SOME 60 KNOT SFC TO 6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR SOME ROTATING STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. DUE TO THIS
THREAT SPC HAS PUT THE SOUTHERN AREA IN AN ENHANCED THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER AND HAVE PUT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO AND MAY NEED AN
SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT IN DETAIL. THE ONLY THREAT THAT IS A
BIT QUESTIONABLE TOMORROW WILL BE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. THOUGH
THE LAST HEAVY RAINFALL WAS LONG ENOUGH AGO THAT MOST PLACES HAVE
BEEN ALLOWED TO DRAIN AND DRY OUT. AS WELL...GREEN HAS GONE INTO
FULL SWING ACROSS THE AREA ALLEVIATING THE RUNOFF POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER...THE DISCRETE SUPER CELL POTENTIAL WILL ADD TO THE THREAT
OF FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS IF AN MCS DEVELOPS BY LATE IN THE
EVENING ON SATURDAY. MAY NEED TO EVALUATE THIS DURING THE NEXT
MODEL RUN.

HEADING INTO SATURDAY EVENING...THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH TO
THE NORTHEAST AND THEN THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS RIGHT ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY WITH ANOTHER STRONG SHOT OF RAINFALL WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH
TO INITIATE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. HAVE ADJUSTED THE QPF FOR THE
00Z TO 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT PERIOD FOR THIS RAINFALL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE LESSENING BY 06Z TO 12Z RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE EVENT
WILL BE WINDING DOWN. FOR NOW...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE AND
FLOOD THREAT IN THE HWO AND MAY NEED AN SPS TO FURTHER HIGHLIGHT
THIS. THE ZFP WILL HAVE SEVERE POTENTIAL AND HEAVY RAINFALL
MENTIONED AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

ANY REMAINING RAINFALL SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN BY SUNDAY MORNING AS
THE SFC LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSH EAST OF KY. BEHIND THIS...
SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR AS DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
EVENING...ALLOWING FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY TO RECEIVE A BREAK FROM THE
WET WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK.  THIS IS DUE TO AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

A LARGE CUTOFF LOW WILL THEN GRADUALLY MOVE EWD FROM TX ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN US WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES EWD ITS
ENERGY IS FORECASTED TO GET WRAPPED INTO A DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH. THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE PAST
COUPLE OF RUNS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...WHERE THE ECMWF
SOLUTION HAS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A TRACK SIMILAR
TO THAT OF THE GFS. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF SOLUTION KEEPS THE LOW CUT
OFF AND SEPARATE FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH...CREATING QUITE A
BIT MORE PRECIP THAN THE GFS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.  WITH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTING IN THIS PART OF
THE EXTENDED...DECIDED TO KEEP PRECIP IN DURING THE WED/THURS TIME
FRAME...AND STUCK CLOSE TO THE CR SUPERBLEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL AND STAY IN THE 60S FOR
HIGHS AND IN THE 40S FOR LOWS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. DURING THE
DRIER PERIODS...TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. RAIN WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR
TOWARD DAWN. LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP...SOME OF WHICH MAY BECOME SEVERE. WITH THESE
STORMS...CONDITIONS CAN BE TEMPORARILY REDUCED TO NEAR ALTERNATE
MINS OR BELOW DEPENDING ON THE SEVERITY OF THE STORM. SO HAVE
LOWERED VIS TO ALTERNATE MINS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES WITH VCTS
BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...JVM/SHALLENBERGER




000
FXUS63 KJKL 241737
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
137 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE THE FREEZE WARNING AS TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. ALSO UPDATED THE HWO AND
ZFP FOR THESE CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 807 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

UPDATED TO BLEND EARLY MORNING OBS INTO THE FORECAST. NO
SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES IN MANY PLACES. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS
JUST TO OUR WEST...AND HIGH CLOUDS WERE SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE
INTO OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WAS TAKING
SHAPE OVER THE PLAINS...AND WILL HEAD EAST TO THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE TO OUR
EAST TODAY AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. THIS WILL CAUSE
CLOUDS TO LOWER AND THICKEN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE LATE TONIGHT AND ON SATURDAY
MORNING. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL SHIFT TO OUR NE ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...AND A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH INTO KY. AREAS NEAR
AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY UNSTABLE.
THE GREATEST INSTABILITY IN THE JKL FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE OVER
THE CUMBERLAND RIVER BASIN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG
SHEAR...DRY MID LEVELS...AND LARGE MID LEVEL CAPE IN THAT AREA. IF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE WARM FRONT AND IN THE
WARM SECTOR AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AT
THE END OF THE DAY...THEY WOULD POSE A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX
THREAT. LARGE HAIL IS ESPECIALLY A CONCERN...BUT DAMAGING WINDS
AND TORNADOES COULD ALSO OCCUR.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE MODELS HAVE FINALLY COME INTO PRETTY AGREEMENT IN THE
EXTENDED. THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS NOW CLOSELY RESEMBLES THE
LATEST ECMWF FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE PERIOD IS
PROGGED TO START OFF WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS...IT ALSO
APPEARS THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...LIKELY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE THE INSTABILITY AND LIFT MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST FOR THUNDER
TO COME TO AN END. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL POSSIBLE DURING THE
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES. AFTER THE LAST OF THE RAIN
FINALLY EXITS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE RESIDENTS OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY SHOULD EXPERIENCE A NICE BREAK FROM THE WET WEATHER TO
BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK. THE MODELS BOTH AGREE THAT A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE...BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMING WEATHER TO THE
AREA TO START THE WEEK.

A RATHER WELL DEVELOPED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO
MIGRATE ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND GEORGIA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MODELS DO DIFFER A BIT
HERE...HOWEVER...IN THAT THE ECMWF BRINGS MORE MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THAN THE GFS DOES. THE ECMWF SOLUTION ALSO
BRINGS HAS ITS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG TRACK THAT IS
FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS. THE END RESULT IS FOR THE ECMWF
SOUTHERN TRACK LOW TO PHASE WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IT
HAS MOVING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS ITS SOUTHERN TRACK LOW FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH THAT IT DOES NOT COUPLE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH.
THEREFORE...THE ECMWF IS PRODUCING QUITE A BIT MORE PRECIPITATION
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD THAN THE GFS.
WITH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTING DURING THIS PART OF THE
EXTENDED...DECIDED TO KEEP IN PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEDNESDAY
THURSDAY TIME PERIOD...BUT WITH MUCH LOWER PROBABILITIES THAN THE
LATEST ECMWF MODEL DATA ARE CURRENTLY SUGGESTING.

DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE EXTENDED LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE
PERIODS WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...AND CLOSE
TO NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WHEN THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE SAME
GENERAL PATTERN...WITH NORMAL VALUES ON TAP FOR THE END THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. RAIN WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR
TOWARD DAWN. LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP...SOME OF WHICH MAY BECOME SEVERE. WITH THESE
STORMS...CONDITIONS CAN BE TEMPORARILY REDUCED TO NEAR ALTERNATE
MINS OR BELOW DEPENDING ON THE SEVERITY OF THE STORM. SO HAVE
LOWERED VIS TO ALTERNATE MINS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES WITH VCTS
BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JVM/SHALLENBERGER




000
FXUS63 KJKL 241342
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
942 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE THE FREEZE WARNING AS TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. ALSO UPDATED THE HWO AND
ZFP FOR THESE CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 807 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

UPDATED TO BLEND EARLY MORNING OBS INTO THE FORECAST. NO
SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES IN MANY PLACES. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS
JUST TO OUR WEST...AND HIGH CLOUDS WERE SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE
INTO OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WAS TAKING
SHAPE OVER THE PLAINS...AND WILL HEAD EAST TO THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE TO OUR
EAST TODAY AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. THIS WILL CAUSE
CLOUDS TO LOWER AND THICKEN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE LATE TONIGHT AND ON SATURDAY
MORNING. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL SHIFT TO OUR NE ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...AND A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH INTO KY. AREAS NEAR
AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY UNSTABLE.
THE GREATEST INSTABILITY IN THE JKL FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE OVER
THE CUMBERLAND RIVER BASIN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG
SHEAR...DRY MID LEVELS...AND LARGE MID LEVEL CAPE IN THAT AREA. IF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE WARM FRONT AND IN THE
WARM SECTOR AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AT
THE END OF THE DAY...THEY WOULD POSE A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX
THREAT. LARGE HAIL IS ESPECIALLY A CONCERN...BUT DAMAGING WINDS
AND TORNADOES COULD ALSO OCCUR.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE MODELS HAVE FINALLY COME INTO PRETTY AGREEMENT IN THE
EXTENDED. THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS NOW CLOSELY RESEMBLES THE
LATEST ECMWF FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE PERIOD IS
PROGGED TO START OFF WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS...IT ALSO
APPEARS THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...LIKELY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE THE INSTABILITY AND LIFT MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST FOR THUNDER
TO COME TO AN END. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL POSSIBLE DURING THE
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES. AFTER THE LAST OF THE RAIN
FINALLY EXITS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE RESIDENTS OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY SHOULD EXPERIENCE A NICE BREAK FROM THE WET WEATHER TO
BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK. THE MODELS BOTH AGREE THAT A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE...BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMING WEATHER TO THE
AREA TO START THE WEEK.

A RATHER WELL DEVELOPED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO
MIGRATE ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND GEORGIA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MODELS DO DIFFER A BIT
HERE...HOWEVER...IN THAT THE ECMWF BRINGS MORE MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THAN THE GFS DOES. THE ECMWF SOLUTION ALSO
BRINGS HAS ITS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG TRACK THAT IS
FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS. THE END RESULT IS FOR THE ECMWF
SOUTHERN TRACK LOW TO PHASE WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IT
HAS MOVING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS ITS SOUTHERN TRACK LOW FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH THAT IT DOES NOT COUPLE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH.
THEREFORE...THE ECMWF IS PRODUCING QUITE A BIT MORE PRECIPITATION
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD THAN THE GFS.
WITH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTING DURING THIS PART OF THE
EXTENDED...DECIDED TO KEEP IN PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEDNESDAY
THURSDAY TIME PERIOD...BUT WITH MUCH LOWER PROBABILITIES THAN THE
LATEST ECMWF MODEL DATA ARE CURRENTLY SUGGESTING.

DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE EXTENDED LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE
PERIODS WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...AND CLOSE
TO NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WHEN THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE SAME
GENERAL PATTERN...WITH NORMAL VALUES ON TAP FOR THE END THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 807 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. RAIN WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR
TOWARD DAWN. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL




000
FXUS63 KJKL 241342
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
942 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE THE FREEZE WARNING AS TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. ALSO UPDATED THE HWO AND
ZFP FOR THESE CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 807 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

UPDATED TO BLEND EARLY MORNING OBS INTO THE FORECAST. NO
SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES IN MANY PLACES. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS
JUST TO OUR WEST...AND HIGH CLOUDS WERE SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE
INTO OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WAS TAKING
SHAPE OVER THE PLAINS...AND WILL HEAD EAST TO THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE TO OUR
EAST TODAY AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. THIS WILL CAUSE
CLOUDS TO LOWER AND THICKEN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE LATE TONIGHT AND ON SATURDAY
MORNING. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL SHIFT TO OUR NE ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...AND A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH INTO KY. AREAS NEAR
AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY UNSTABLE.
THE GREATEST INSTABILITY IN THE JKL FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE OVER
THE CUMBERLAND RIVER BASIN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG
SHEAR...DRY MID LEVELS...AND LARGE MID LEVEL CAPE IN THAT AREA. IF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE WARM FRONT AND IN THE
WARM SECTOR AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AT
THE END OF THE DAY...THEY WOULD POSE A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX
THREAT. LARGE HAIL IS ESPECIALLY A CONCERN...BUT DAMAGING WINDS
AND TORNADOES COULD ALSO OCCUR.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE MODELS HAVE FINALLY COME INTO PRETTY AGREEMENT IN THE
EXTENDED. THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS NOW CLOSELY RESEMBLES THE
LATEST ECMWF FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE PERIOD IS
PROGGED TO START OFF WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS...IT ALSO
APPEARS THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...LIKELY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE THE INSTABILITY AND LIFT MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST FOR THUNDER
TO COME TO AN END. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL POSSIBLE DURING THE
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES. AFTER THE LAST OF THE RAIN
FINALLY EXITS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE RESIDENTS OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY SHOULD EXPERIENCE A NICE BREAK FROM THE WET WEATHER TO
BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK. THE MODELS BOTH AGREE THAT A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE...BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMING WEATHER TO THE
AREA TO START THE WEEK.

A RATHER WELL DEVELOPED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO
MIGRATE ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND GEORGIA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MODELS DO DIFFER A BIT
HERE...HOWEVER...IN THAT THE ECMWF BRINGS MORE MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THAN THE GFS DOES. THE ECMWF SOLUTION ALSO
BRINGS HAS ITS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG TRACK THAT IS
FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS. THE END RESULT IS FOR THE ECMWF
SOUTHERN TRACK LOW TO PHASE WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IT
HAS MOVING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS ITS SOUTHERN TRACK LOW FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH THAT IT DOES NOT COUPLE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH.
THEREFORE...THE ECMWF IS PRODUCING QUITE A BIT MORE PRECIPITATION
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD THAN THE GFS.
WITH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTING DURING THIS PART OF THE
EXTENDED...DECIDED TO KEEP IN PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEDNESDAY
THURSDAY TIME PERIOD...BUT WITH MUCH LOWER PROBABILITIES THAN THE
LATEST ECMWF MODEL DATA ARE CURRENTLY SUGGESTING.

DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE EXTENDED LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE
PERIODS WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...AND CLOSE
TO NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WHEN THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE SAME
GENERAL PATTERN...WITH NORMAL VALUES ON TAP FOR THE END THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 807 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. RAIN WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR
TOWARD DAWN. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL




000
FXUS63 KJKL 241342
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
942 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE THE FREEZE WARNING AS TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. ALSO UPDATED THE HWO AND
ZFP FOR THESE CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 807 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

UPDATED TO BLEND EARLY MORNING OBS INTO THE FORECAST. NO
SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES IN MANY PLACES. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS
JUST TO OUR WEST...AND HIGH CLOUDS WERE SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE
INTO OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WAS TAKING
SHAPE OVER THE PLAINS...AND WILL HEAD EAST TO THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE TO OUR
EAST TODAY AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. THIS WILL CAUSE
CLOUDS TO LOWER AND THICKEN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE LATE TONIGHT AND ON SATURDAY
MORNING. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL SHIFT TO OUR NE ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...AND A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH INTO KY. AREAS NEAR
AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY UNSTABLE.
THE GREATEST INSTABILITY IN THE JKL FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE OVER
THE CUMBERLAND RIVER BASIN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG
SHEAR...DRY MID LEVELS...AND LARGE MID LEVEL CAPE IN THAT AREA. IF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE WARM FRONT AND IN THE
WARM SECTOR AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AT
THE END OF THE DAY...THEY WOULD POSE A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX
THREAT. LARGE HAIL IS ESPECIALLY A CONCERN...BUT DAMAGING WINDS
AND TORNADOES COULD ALSO OCCUR.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE MODELS HAVE FINALLY COME INTO PRETTY AGREEMENT IN THE
EXTENDED. THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS NOW CLOSELY RESEMBLES THE
LATEST ECMWF FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE PERIOD IS
PROGGED TO START OFF WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS...IT ALSO
APPEARS THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...LIKELY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE THE INSTABILITY AND LIFT MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST FOR THUNDER
TO COME TO AN END. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL POSSIBLE DURING THE
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES. AFTER THE LAST OF THE RAIN
FINALLY EXITS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE RESIDENTS OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY SHOULD EXPERIENCE A NICE BREAK FROM THE WET WEATHER TO
BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK. THE MODELS BOTH AGREE THAT A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE...BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMING WEATHER TO THE
AREA TO START THE WEEK.

A RATHER WELL DEVELOPED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO
MIGRATE ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND GEORGIA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MODELS DO DIFFER A BIT
HERE...HOWEVER...IN THAT THE ECMWF BRINGS MORE MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THAN THE GFS DOES. THE ECMWF SOLUTION ALSO
BRINGS HAS ITS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG TRACK THAT IS
FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS. THE END RESULT IS FOR THE ECMWF
SOUTHERN TRACK LOW TO PHASE WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IT
HAS MOVING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS ITS SOUTHERN TRACK LOW FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH THAT IT DOES NOT COUPLE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH.
THEREFORE...THE ECMWF IS PRODUCING QUITE A BIT MORE PRECIPITATION
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD THAN THE GFS.
WITH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTING DURING THIS PART OF THE
EXTENDED...DECIDED TO KEEP IN PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEDNESDAY
THURSDAY TIME PERIOD...BUT WITH MUCH LOWER PROBABILITIES THAN THE
LATEST ECMWF MODEL DATA ARE CURRENTLY SUGGESTING.

DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE EXTENDED LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE
PERIODS WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...AND CLOSE
TO NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WHEN THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE SAME
GENERAL PATTERN...WITH NORMAL VALUES ON TAP FOR THE END THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 807 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. RAIN WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR
TOWARD DAWN. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL





000
FXUS63 KJKL 241207
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
807 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 807 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

UPDATED TO BLEND EARLY MORNING OBS INTO THE FORECAST. NO
SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES IN MANY PLACES. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS
JUST TO OUR WEST...AND HIGH CLOUDS WERE SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE
INTO OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WAS TAKING
SHAPE OVER THE PLAINS...AND WILL HEAD EAST TO THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE TO OUR
EAST TODAY AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. THIS WILL CAUSE
CLOUDS TO LOWER AND THICKEN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE LATE TONIGHT AND ON SATURDAY
MORNING. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL SHIFT TO OUR NE ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...AND A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH INTO KY. AREAS NEAR
AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY UNSTABLE.
THE GREATEST INSTABILITY IN THE JKL FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE OVER
THE CUMBERLAND RIVER BASIN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG
SHEAR...DRY MID LEVELS...AND LARGE MID LEVEL CAPE IN THAT AREA. IF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE WARM FRONT AND IN THE
WARM SECTOR AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AT
THE END OF THE DAY...THEY WOULD POSE A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX
THREAT. LARGE HAIL IS ESPECIALLY A CONCERN...BUT DAMAGING WINDS
AND TORNADOES COULD ALSO OCCUR.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE MODELS HAVE FINALLY COME INTO PRETTY AGREEMENT IN THE
EXTENDED. THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS NOW CLOSELY RESEMBLES THE
LATEST ECMWF FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE PERIOD IS
PROGGED TO START OFF WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS...IT ALSO
APPEARS THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...LIKELY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE THE INSTABILITY AND LIFT MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST FOR THUNDER
TO COME TO AN END. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL POSSIBLE DURING THE
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES. AFTER THE LAST OF THE RAIN
FINALLY EXITS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE RESIDENTS OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY SHOULD EXPERIENCE A NICE BREAK FROM THE WET WEATHER TO
BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK. THE MODELS BOTH AGREE THAT A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE...BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMING WEATHER TO THE
AREA TO START THE WEEK.

A RATHER WELL DEVELOPED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO
MIGRATE ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND GEORGIA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MODELS DO DIFFER A BIT
HERE...HOWEVER...IN THAT THE ECMWF BRINGS MORE MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THAN THE GFS DOES. THE ECMWF SOLUTION ALSO
BRINGS HAS ITS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG TRACK THAT IS
FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS. THE END RESULT IS FOR THE ECMWF
SOUTHERN TRACK LOW TO PHASE WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IT
HAS MOVING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS ITS SOUTHERN TRACK LOW FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH THAT IT DOES NOT COUPLE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH.
THEREFORE...THE ECMWF IS PRODUCING QUITE A BIT MORE PRECIPITATION
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD THAN THE GFS.
WITH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTING DURING THIS PART OF THE
EXTENDED...DECIDED TO KEEP IN PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEDNESDAY
THURSDAY TIME PERIOD...BUT WITH MUCH LOWER PROBABILITIES THAN THE
LATEST ECMWF MODEL DATA ARE CURRENTLY SUGGESTING.

DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE EXTENDED LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE
PERIODS WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...AND CLOSE
TO NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WHEN THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE SAME
GENERAL PATTERN...WITH NORMAL VALUES ON TAP FOR THE END THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 807 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. RAIN WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR
TOWARD DAWN. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL




000
FXUS63 KJKL 241207
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
807 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 807 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

UPDATED TO BLEND EARLY MORNING OBS INTO THE FORECAST. NO
SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES IN MANY PLACES. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS
JUST TO OUR WEST...AND HIGH CLOUDS WERE SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE
INTO OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WAS TAKING
SHAPE OVER THE PLAINS...AND WILL HEAD EAST TO THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE TO OUR
EAST TODAY AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. THIS WILL CAUSE
CLOUDS TO LOWER AND THICKEN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE LATE TONIGHT AND ON SATURDAY
MORNING. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL SHIFT TO OUR NE ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...AND A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH INTO KY. AREAS NEAR
AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY UNSTABLE.
THE GREATEST INSTABILITY IN THE JKL FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE OVER
THE CUMBERLAND RIVER BASIN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG
SHEAR...DRY MID LEVELS...AND LARGE MID LEVEL CAPE IN THAT AREA. IF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE WARM FRONT AND IN THE
WARM SECTOR AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AT
THE END OF THE DAY...THEY WOULD POSE A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX
THREAT. LARGE HAIL IS ESPECIALLY A CONCERN...BUT DAMAGING WINDS
AND TORNADOES COULD ALSO OCCUR.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE MODELS HAVE FINALLY COME INTO PRETTY AGREEMENT IN THE
EXTENDED. THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS NOW CLOSELY RESEMBLES THE
LATEST ECMWF FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE PERIOD IS
PROGGED TO START OFF WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS...IT ALSO
APPEARS THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...LIKELY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE THE INSTABILITY AND LIFT MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST FOR THUNDER
TO COME TO AN END. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL POSSIBLE DURING THE
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES. AFTER THE LAST OF THE RAIN
FINALLY EXITS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE RESIDENTS OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY SHOULD EXPERIENCE A NICE BREAK FROM THE WET WEATHER TO
BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK. THE MODELS BOTH AGREE THAT A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE...BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMING WEATHER TO THE
AREA TO START THE WEEK.

A RATHER WELL DEVELOPED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO
MIGRATE ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND GEORGIA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MODELS DO DIFFER A BIT
HERE...HOWEVER...IN THAT THE ECMWF BRINGS MORE MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THAN THE GFS DOES. THE ECMWF SOLUTION ALSO
BRINGS HAS ITS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG TRACK THAT IS
FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS. THE END RESULT IS FOR THE ECMWF
SOUTHERN TRACK LOW TO PHASE WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IT
HAS MOVING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS ITS SOUTHERN TRACK LOW FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH THAT IT DOES NOT COUPLE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH.
THEREFORE...THE ECMWF IS PRODUCING QUITE A BIT MORE PRECIPITATION
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD THAN THE GFS.
WITH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTING DURING THIS PART OF THE
EXTENDED...DECIDED TO KEEP IN PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEDNESDAY
THURSDAY TIME PERIOD...BUT WITH MUCH LOWER PROBABILITIES THAN THE
LATEST ECMWF MODEL DATA ARE CURRENTLY SUGGESTING.

DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE EXTENDED LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE
PERIODS WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...AND CLOSE
TO NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WHEN THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE SAME
GENERAL PATTERN...WITH NORMAL VALUES ON TAP FOR THE END THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 807 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. RAIN WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR
TOWARD DAWN. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL




000
FXUS63 KJKL 241207
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
807 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 807 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

UPDATED TO BLEND EARLY MORNING OBS INTO THE FORECAST. NO
SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES IN MANY PLACES. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS
JUST TO OUR WEST...AND HIGH CLOUDS WERE SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE
INTO OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WAS TAKING
SHAPE OVER THE PLAINS...AND WILL HEAD EAST TO THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE TO OUR
EAST TODAY AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. THIS WILL CAUSE
CLOUDS TO LOWER AND THICKEN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE LATE TONIGHT AND ON SATURDAY
MORNING. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL SHIFT TO OUR NE ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...AND A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH INTO KY. AREAS NEAR
AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY UNSTABLE.
THE GREATEST INSTABILITY IN THE JKL FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE OVER
THE CUMBERLAND RIVER BASIN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG
SHEAR...DRY MID LEVELS...AND LARGE MID LEVEL CAPE IN THAT AREA. IF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE WARM FRONT AND IN THE
WARM SECTOR AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AT
THE END OF THE DAY...THEY WOULD POSE A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX
THREAT. LARGE HAIL IS ESPECIALLY A CONCERN...BUT DAMAGING WINDS
AND TORNADOES COULD ALSO OCCUR.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE MODELS HAVE FINALLY COME INTO PRETTY AGREEMENT IN THE
EXTENDED. THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS NOW CLOSELY RESEMBLES THE
LATEST ECMWF FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE PERIOD IS
PROGGED TO START OFF WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS...IT ALSO
APPEARS THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...LIKELY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE THE INSTABILITY AND LIFT MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST FOR THUNDER
TO COME TO AN END. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL POSSIBLE DURING THE
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES. AFTER THE LAST OF THE RAIN
FINALLY EXITS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE RESIDENTS OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY SHOULD EXPERIENCE A NICE BREAK FROM THE WET WEATHER TO
BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK. THE MODELS BOTH AGREE THAT A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE...BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMING WEATHER TO THE
AREA TO START THE WEEK.

A RATHER WELL DEVELOPED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO
MIGRATE ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND GEORGIA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MODELS DO DIFFER A BIT
HERE...HOWEVER...IN THAT THE ECMWF BRINGS MORE MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THAN THE GFS DOES. THE ECMWF SOLUTION ALSO
BRINGS HAS ITS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG TRACK THAT IS
FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS. THE END RESULT IS FOR THE ECMWF
SOUTHERN TRACK LOW TO PHASE WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IT
HAS MOVING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS ITS SOUTHERN TRACK LOW FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH THAT IT DOES NOT COUPLE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH.
THEREFORE...THE ECMWF IS PRODUCING QUITE A BIT MORE PRECIPITATION
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD THAN THE GFS.
WITH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTING DURING THIS PART OF THE
EXTENDED...DECIDED TO KEEP IN PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEDNESDAY
THURSDAY TIME PERIOD...BUT WITH MUCH LOWER PROBABILITIES THAN THE
LATEST ECMWF MODEL DATA ARE CURRENTLY SUGGESTING.

DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE EXTENDED LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE
PERIODS WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...AND CLOSE
TO NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WHEN THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE SAME
GENERAL PATTERN...WITH NORMAL VALUES ON TAP FOR THE END THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 807 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. RAIN WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR
TOWARD DAWN. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL





000
FXUS63 KJKL 241207
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
807 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 807 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

UPDATED TO BLEND EARLY MORNING OBS INTO THE FORECAST. NO
SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES IN MANY PLACES. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS
JUST TO OUR WEST...AND HIGH CLOUDS WERE SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE
INTO OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WAS TAKING
SHAPE OVER THE PLAINS...AND WILL HEAD EAST TO THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE TO OUR
EAST TODAY AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. THIS WILL CAUSE
CLOUDS TO LOWER AND THICKEN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE LATE TONIGHT AND ON SATURDAY
MORNING. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL SHIFT TO OUR NE ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...AND A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH INTO KY. AREAS NEAR
AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY UNSTABLE.
THE GREATEST INSTABILITY IN THE JKL FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE OVER
THE CUMBERLAND RIVER BASIN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG
SHEAR...DRY MID LEVELS...AND LARGE MID LEVEL CAPE IN THAT AREA. IF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE WARM FRONT AND IN THE
WARM SECTOR AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AT
THE END OF THE DAY...THEY WOULD POSE A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX
THREAT. LARGE HAIL IS ESPECIALLY A CONCERN...BUT DAMAGING WINDS
AND TORNADOES COULD ALSO OCCUR.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE MODELS HAVE FINALLY COME INTO PRETTY AGREEMENT IN THE
EXTENDED. THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS NOW CLOSELY RESEMBLES THE
LATEST ECMWF FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE PERIOD IS
PROGGED TO START OFF WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS...IT ALSO
APPEARS THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...LIKELY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE THE INSTABILITY AND LIFT MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST FOR THUNDER
TO COME TO AN END. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL POSSIBLE DURING THE
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES. AFTER THE LAST OF THE RAIN
FINALLY EXITS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE RESIDENTS OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY SHOULD EXPERIENCE A NICE BREAK FROM THE WET WEATHER TO
BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK. THE MODELS BOTH AGREE THAT A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE...BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMING WEATHER TO THE
AREA TO START THE WEEK.

A RATHER WELL DEVELOPED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO
MIGRATE ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND GEORGIA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MODELS DO DIFFER A BIT
HERE...HOWEVER...IN THAT THE ECMWF BRINGS MORE MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THAN THE GFS DOES. THE ECMWF SOLUTION ALSO
BRINGS HAS ITS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG TRACK THAT IS
FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS. THE END RESULT IS FOR THE ECMWF
SOUTHERN TRACK LOW TO PHASE WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IT
HAS MOVING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS ITS SOUTHERN TRACK LOW FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH THAT IT DOES NOT COUPLE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH.
THEREFORE...THE ECMWF IS PRODUCING QUITE A BIT MORE PRECIPITATION
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD THAN THE GFS.
WITH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTING DURING THIS PART OF THE
EXTENDED...DECIDED TO KEEP IN PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEDNESDAY
THURSDAY TIME PERIOD...BUT WITH MUCH LOWER PROBABILITIES THAN THE
LATEST ECMWF MODEL DATA ARE CURRENTLY SUGGESTING.

DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE EXTENDED LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE
PERIODS WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...AND CLOSE
TO NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WHEN THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE SAME
GENERAL PATTERN...WITH NORMAL VALUES ON TAP FOR THE END THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 807 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. RAIN WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR
TOWARD DAWN. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL





000
FXUS63 KJKL 240816
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
416 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES IN MANY PLACES. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS
JUST TO OUR WEST...AND HIGH CLOUDS WERE SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE
INTO OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WAS TAKING
SHAPE OVER THE PLAINS...AND WILL HEAD EAST TO THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE TO OUR
EAST TODAY AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. THIS WILL CAUSE
CLOUDS TO LOWER AND THICKEN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE LATE TONIGHT AND ON SATURDAY
MORNING. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL SHIFT TO OUR NE ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...AND A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH INTO KY. AREAS NEAR
AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY UNSTABLE.
THE GREATEST INSTABILITY IN THE JKL FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE OVER
THE CUMBERLAND RIVER BASIN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG
SHEAR...DRY MID LEVELS...AND LARGE MID LEVEL CAPE IN THAT AREA. IF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE WARM FRONT AND IN THE
WARM SECTOR AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AT
THE END OF THE DAY...THEY WOULD POSE A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX
THREAT. LARGE HAIL IS ESPECIALLY A CONCERN...BUT DAMAGING WINDS
AND TORNADOES COULD ALSO OCCUR.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE MODELS HAVE FINALLY COME INTO PRETTY AGREEMENT IN THE
EXTENDED. THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS NOW CLOSELY RESEMBLES THE
LATEST ECMWF FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE PERIOD IS
PROGGED TO START OFF WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS...IT ALSO
APPEARS THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...LIKELY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE THE INSTABILITY AND LIFT MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST FOR THUNDER
TO COME TO AN END. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL POSSIBLE DURING THE
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES. AFTER THE LAST OF THE RAIN
FINALLY EXITS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE RESIDENTS OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY SHOULD EXPERIENCE A NICE BREAK FROM THE WET WEATHER TO
BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK. THE MODELS BOTH AGREE THAT A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE...BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMING WEATHER TO THE
AREA TO START THE WEEK.

A RATHER WELL DEVELOPED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO
MIGRATE ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND GEORGIA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MODELS DO DIFFER A BIT
HERE...HOWEVER...IN THAT THE ECMWF BRINGS MORE MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THAN THE GFS DOES. THE ECMWF SOLUTION ALSO
BRINGS HAS ITS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG TRACK THAT IS
FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS. THE END RESULT IS FOR THE ECMWF
SOUTHERN TRACK LOW TO PHASE WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IT
HAS MOVING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS ITS SOUTHERN TRACK LOW FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH THAT IT DOES NOT COUPLE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH.
THEREFORE...THE ECMWF IS PRODUCING QUITE A BIT MORE PRECIPITATION
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD THAN THE GFS.
WITH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTING DURING THIS PART OF THE
EXTENDED...DECIDED TO KEEP IN PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEDNESDAY
THURSDAY TIME PERIOD...BUT WITH MUCH LOWER PROBABILITIES THAN THE
LATEST ECMWF MODEL DATA ARE CURRENTLY SUGGESTING.

DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE EXTENDED LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE
PERIODS WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...AND CLOSE
TO NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WHEN THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE SAME
GENERAL PATTERN...WITH NORMAL VALUES ON TAP FOR THE END THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL




000
FXUS63 KJKL 240816
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
416 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES IN MANY PLACES. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS
JUST TO OUR WEST...AND HIGH CLOUDS WERE SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE
INTO OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WAS TAKING
SHAPE OVER THE PLAINS...AND WILL HEAD EAST TO THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE TO OUR
EAST TODAY AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. THIS WILL CAUSE
CLOUDS TO LOWER AND THICKEN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE LATE TONIGHT AND ON SATURDAY
MORNING. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL SHIFT TO OUR NE ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...AND A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH INTO KY. AREAS NEAR
AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY UNSTABLE.
THE GREATEST INSTABILITY IN THE JKL FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE OVER
THE CUMBERLAND RIVER BASIN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG
SHEAR...DRY MID LEVELS...AND LARGE MID LEVEL CAPE IN THAT AREA. IF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE WARM FRONT AND IN THE
WARM SECTOR AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AT
THE END OF THE DAY...THEY WOULD POSE A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX
THREAT. LARGE HAIL IS ESPECIALLY A CONCERN...BUT DAMAGING WINDS
AND TORNADOES COULD ALSO OCCUR.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE MODELS HAVE FINALLY COME INTO PRETTY AGREEMENT IN THE
EXTENDED. THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS NOW CLOSELY RESEMBLES THE
LATEST ECMWF FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE PERIOD IS
PROGGED TO START OFF WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS...IT ALSO
APPEARS THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...LIKELY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE THE INSTABILITY AND LIFT MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST FOR THUNDER
TO COME TO AN END. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL POSSIBLE DURING THE
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES. AFTER THE LAST OF THE RAIN
FINALLY EXITS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE RESIDENTS OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY SHOULD EXPERIENCE A NICE BREAK FROM THE WET WEATHER TO
BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK. THE MODELS BOTH AGREE THAT A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE...BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMING WEATHER TO THE
AREA TO START THE WEEK.

A RATHER WELL DEVELOPED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO
MIGRATE ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND GEORGIA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MODELS DO DIFFER A BIT
HERE...HOWEVER...IN THAT THE ECMWF BRINGS MORE MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THAN THE GFS DOES. THE ECMWF SOLUTION ALSO
BRINGS HAS ITS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG TRACK THAT IS
FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS. THE END RESULT IS FOR THE ECMWF
SOUTHERN TRACK LOW TO PHASE WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IT
HAS MOVING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS ITS SOUTHERN TRACK LOW FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH THAT IT DOES NOT COUPLE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH.
THEREFORE...THE ECMWF IS PRODUCING QUITE A BIT MORE PRECIPITATION
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD THAN THE GFS.
WITH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTING DURING THIS PART OF THE
EXTENDED...DECIDED TO KEEP IN PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEDNESDAY
THURSDAY TIME PERIOD...BUT WITH MUCH LOWER PROBABILITIES THAN THE
LATEST ECMWF MODEL DATA ARE CURRENTLY SUGGESTING.

DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE EXTENDED LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE
PERIODS WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...AND CLOSE
TO NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WHEN THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE SAME
GENERAL PATTERN...WITH NORMAL VALUES ON TAP FOR THE END THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL





000
FXUS63 KJKL 240816
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
416 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES IN MANY PLACES. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS
JUST TO OUR WEST...AND HIGH CLOUDS WERE SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE
INTO OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WAS TAKING
SHAPE OVER THE PLAINS...AND WILL HEAD EAST TO THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE TO OUR
EAST TODAY AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. THIS WILL CAUSE
CLOUDS TO LOWER AND THICKEN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE LATE TONIGHT AND ON SATURDAY
MORNING. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL SHIFT TO OUR NE ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...AND A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH INTO KY. AREAS NEAR
AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY UNSTABLE.
THE GREATEST INSTABILITY IN THE JKL FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE OVER
THE CUMBERLAND RIVER BASIN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG
SHEAR...DRY MID LEVELS...AND LARGE MID LEVEL CAPE IN THAT AREA. IF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE WARM FRONT AND IN THE
WARM SECTOR AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AT
THE END OF THE DAY...THEY WOULD POSE A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX
THREAT. LARGE HAIL IS ESPECIALLY A CONCERN...BUT DAMAGING WINDS
AND TORNADOES COULD ALSO OCCUR.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE MODELS HAVE FINALLY COME INTO PRETTY AGREEMENT IN THE
EXTENDED. THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS NOW CLOSELY RESEMBLES THE
LATEST ECMWF FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE PERIOD IS
PROGGED TO START OFF WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS...IT ALSO
APPEARS THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...LIKELY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE THE INSTABILITY AND LIFT MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST FOR THUNDER
TO COME TO AN END. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL POSSIBLE DURING THE
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES. AFTER THE LAST OF THE RAIN
FINALLY EXITS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE RESIDENTS OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY SHOULD EXPERIENCE A NICE BREAK FROM THE WET WEATHER TO
BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK. THE MODELS BOTH AGREE THAT A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE...BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMING WEATHER TO THE
AREA TO START THE WEEK.

A RATHER WELL DEVELOPED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO
MIGRATE ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND GEORGIA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MODELS DO DIFFER A BIT
HERE...HOWEVER...IN THAT THE ECMWF BRINGS MORE MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THAN THE GFS DOES. THE ECMWF SOLUTION ALSO
BRINGS HAS ITS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG TRACK THAT IS
FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS. THE END RESULT IS FOR THE ECMWF
SOUTHERN TRACK LOW TO PHASE WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IT
HAS MOVING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS ITS SOUTHERN TRACK LOW FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH THAT IT DOES NOT COUPLE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH.
THEREFORE...THE ECMWF IS PRODUCING QUITE A BIT MORE PRECIPITATION
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD THAN THE GFS.
WITH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTING DURING THIS PART OF THE
EXTENDED...DECIDED TO KEEP IN PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEDNESDAY
THURSDAY TIME PERIOD...BUT WITH MUCH LOWER PROBABILITIES THAN THE
LATEST ECMWF MODEL DATA ARE CURRENTLY SUGGESTING.

DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE EXTENDED LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE
PERIODS WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...AND CLOSE
TO NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WHEN THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE SAME
GENERAL PATTERN...WITH NORMAL VALUES ON TAP FOR THE END THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL





000
FXUS63 KJKL 240800
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
400 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES IN MANY PLACES. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS
JUST TO OUR WEST...AND HIGH CLOUDS WERE SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE
INTO OUR SOUTWEST COUNTIES. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WAS TAKING SHAPE
OVER THE PLAINS...AND WILL HEAD EAST TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BRINGS GULF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN.
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE LATE TONIGHT AND ON SATURDAY
MORNING. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL SHIFT TO OUR NE ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...AND A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH INTO KY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE MODELS HAVE FINALLY COME INTO PRETTY AGREEMENT IN THE
EXTENDED. THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS NOW CLOSELY RESEMBLES THE
LATEST ECMWF FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE PERIOD IS
PROGGED TO START OFF WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS...IT ALSO
APPEARS THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...LIKELY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE THE INSTABILITY AND LIFT MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST FOR THUNDER
TO COME TO AN END. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL POSSIBLE DURING THE
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES. AFTER THE LAST OF THE RAIN
FINALLY EXITS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE RESIDENTS OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY SHOULD EXPERIENCE A NICE BREAK FROM THE WET WEATHER TO
BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK. THE MODELS BOTH AGREE THAT A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE...BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMING WEATHER TO THE
AREA TO START THE WEEK.

A RATHER WELL DEVELOPED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO
MIGRATE ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND GEORGIA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MODELS DO DIFFER A BIT
HERE...HOWEVER...IN THAT THE ECMWF BRINGS MORE MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THAN THE GFS DOES. THE ECMWF SOLUTION ALSO
BRINGS HAS ITS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG TRACK THAT IS
FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS. THE END RESULT IS FOR THE ECMWF
SOUTHERN TRACK LOW TO PHASE WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IT
HAS MOVING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS ITS SOUTHERN TRACK LOW FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH THAT IT DOES NOT COUPLE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH.
THEREFORE...THE ECMWF IS PRODUCING QUITE A BIT MORE PRECIPITATION
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD THAN THE GFS.
WITH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTING DURING THIS PART OF THE
EXTENDED...DECIDED TO KEEP IN PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEDNESDAY
THURSDAY TIME PERIOD...BUT WITH MUCH LOWER PROBABILITIES THAN THE
LATEST ECMWF MODEL DATA ARE CURRENTLY SUGGESTING.

DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE EXTENDED LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE
PERIODS WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...AND CLOSE
TO NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WHEN THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE SAME
GENERAL PATTERN...WITH NORMAL VALUES ON TAP FOR THE END THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL




000
FXUS63 KJKL 240800
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
400 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES IN MANY PLACES. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS
JUST TO OUR WEST...AND HIGH CLOUDS WERE SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE
INTO OUR SOUTWEST COUNTIES. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WAS TAKING SHAPE
OVER THE PLAINS...AND WILL HEAD EAST TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BRINGS GULF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN.
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE LATE TONIGHT AND ON SATURDAY
MORNING. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL SHIFT TO OUR NE ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...AND A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH INTO KY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE MODELS HAVE FINALLY COME INTO PRETTY AGREEMENT IN THE
EXTENDED. THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS NOW CLOSELY RESEMBLES THE
LATEST ECMWF FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE PERIOD IS
PROGGED TO START OFF WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS...IT ALSO
APPEARS THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...LIKELY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE THE INSTABILITY AND LIFT MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST FOR THUNDER
TO COME TO AN END. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL POSSIBLE DURING THE
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES. AFTER THE LAST OF THE RAIN
FINALLY EXITS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE RESIDENTS OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY SHOULD EXPERIENCE A NICE BREAK FROM THE WET WEATHER TO
BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK. THE MODELS BOTH AGREE THAT A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE...BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMING WEATHER TO THE
AREA TO START THE WEEK.

A RATHER WELL DEVELOPED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO
MIGRATE ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND GEORGIA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MODELS DO DIFFER A BIT
HERE...HOWEVER...IN THAT THE ECMWF BRINGS MORE MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THAN THE GFS DOES. THE ECMWF SOLUTION ALSO
BRINGS HAS ITS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG TRACK THAT IS
FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS. THE END RESULT IS FOR THE ECMWF
SOUTHERN TRACK LOW TO PHASE WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IT
HAS MOVING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS ITS SOUTHERN TRACK LOW FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH THAT IT DOES NOT COUPLE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH.
THEREFORE...THE ECMWF IS PRODUCING QUITE A BIT MORE PRECIPITATION
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD THAN THE GFS.
WITH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTING DURING THIS PART OF THE
EXTENDED...DECIDED TO KEEP IN PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEDNESDAY
THURSDAY TIME PERIOD...BUT WITH MUCH LOWER PROBABILITIES THAN THE
LATEST ECMWF MODEL DATA ARE CURRENTLY SUGGESTING.

DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE EXTENDED LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE
PERIODS WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...AND CLOSE
TO NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WHEN THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE SAME
GENERAL PATTERN...WITH NORMAL VALUES ON TAP FOR THE END THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL





000
FXUS63 KJKL 240800
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
400 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES IN MANY PLACES. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS
JUST TO OUR WEST...AND HIGH CLOUDS WERE SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE
INTO OUR SOUTWEST COUNTIES. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WAS TAKING SHAPE
OVER THE PLAINS...AND WILL HEAD EAST TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BRINGS GULF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN.
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE LATE TONIGHT AND ON SATURDAY
MORNING. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL SHIFT TO OUR NE ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...AND A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH INTO KY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE MODELS HAVE FINALLY COME INTO PRETTY AGREEMENT IN THE
EXTENDED. THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS NOW CLOSELY RESEMBLES THE
LATEST ECMWF FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE PERIOD IS
PROGGED TO START OFF WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS...IT ALSO
APPEARS THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...LIKELY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE THE INSTABILITY AND LIFT MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST FOR THUNDER
TO COME TO AN END. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL POSSIBLE DURING THE
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES. AFTER THE LAST OF THE RAIN
FINALLY EXITS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE RESIDENTS OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY SHOULD EXPERIENCE A NICE BREAK FROM THE WET WEATHER TO
BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK. THE MODELS BOTH AGREE THAT A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE...BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMING WEATHER TO THE
AREA TO START THE WEEK.

A RATHER WELL DEVELOPED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO
MIGRATE ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND GEORGIA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MODELS DO DIFFER A BIT
HERE...HOWEVER...IN THAT THE ECMWF BRINGS MORE MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THAN THE GFS DOES. THE ECMWF SOLUTION ALSO
BRINGS HAS ITS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG TRACK THAT IS
FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS. THE END RESULT IS FOR THE ECMWF
SOUTHERN TRACK LOW TO PHASE WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IT
HAS MOVING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS ITS SOUTHERN TRACK LOW FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH THAT IT DOES NOT COUPLE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH.
THEREFORE...THE ECMWF IS PRODUCING QUITE A BIT MORE PRECIPITATION
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD THAN THE GFS.
WITH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTING DURING THIS PART OF THE
EXTENDED...DECIDED TO KEEP IN PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEDNESDAY
THURSDAY TIME PERIOD...BUT WITH MUCH LOWER PROBABILITIES THAN THE
LATEST ECMWF MODEL DATA ARE CURRENTLY SUGGESTING.

DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE EXTENDED LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE
PERIODS WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...AND CLOSE
TO NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WHEN THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE SAME
GENERAL PATTERN...WITH NORMAL VALUES ON TAP FOR THE END THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL





000
FXUS63 KJKL 240800
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
400 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES IN MANY PLACES. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS
JUST TO OUR WEST...AND HIGH CLOUDS WERE SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE
INTO OUR SOUTWEST COUNTIES. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WAS TAKING SHAPE
OVER THE PLAINS...AND WILL HEAD EAST TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BRINGS GULF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN.
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE LATE TONIGHT AND ON SATURDAY
MORNING. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL SHIFT TO OUR NE ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...AND A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH INTO KY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE MODELS HAVE FINALLY COME INTO PRETTY AGREEMENT IN THE
EXTENDED. THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS NOW CLOSELY RESEMBLES THE
LATEST ECMWF FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE PERIOD IS
PROGGED TO START OFF WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS...IT ALSO
APPEARS THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...LIKELY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE THE INSTABILITY AND LIFT MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST FOR THUNDER
TO COME TO AN END. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL POSSIBLE DURING THE
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES. AFTER THE LAST OF THE RAIN
FINALLY EXITS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE RESIDENTS OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY SHOULD EXPERIENCE A NICE BREAK FROM THE WET WEATHER TO
BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK. THE MODELS BOTH AGREE THAT A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE...BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMING WEATHER TO THE
AREA TO START THE WEEK.

A RATHER WELL DEVELOPED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO
MIGRATE ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND GEORGIA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MODELS DO DIFFER A BIT
HERE...HOWEVER...IN THAT THE ECMWF BRINGS MORE MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THAN THE GFS DOES. THE ECMWF SOLUTION ALSO
BRINGS HAS ITS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG TRACK THAT IS
FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS. THE END RESULT IS FOR THE ECMWF
SOUTHERN TRACK LOW TO PHASE WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IT
HAS MOVING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS ITS SOUTHERN TRACK LOW FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH THAT IT DOES NOT COUPLE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH.
THEREFORE...THE ECMWF IS PRODUCING QUITE A BIT MORE PRECIPITATION
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD THAN THE GFS.
WITH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTING DURING THIS PART OF THE
EXTENDED...DECIDED TO KEEP IN PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEDNESDAY
THURSDAY TIME PERIOD...BUT WITH MUCH LOWER PROBABILITIES THAN THE
LATEST ECMWF MODEL DATA ARE CURRENTLY SUGGESTING.

DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE EXTENDED LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE
PERIODS WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...AND CLOSE
TO NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WHEN THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE SAME
GENERAL PATTERN...WITH NORMAL VALUES ON TAP FOR THE END THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL




000
FXUS63 KJKL 240730
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
330 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

BLENDED LATEST OBS INTO THE FORECAST. NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES WERE
MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 852 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

WINDS HAVE STAYED UP A BIT LONGER THAN EXPECTED THIS EVENING...SO
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT FALLING AS QUICKLY AS FORECAST. THUS...WILL
SLOW DOWN THE TEMPERATURE FALL THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...FINAL
VALUES SHOULD STILL BE OBTAINABLE AFTER THE WINDS DIE OFF THIS
EVENING. THUS...NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
ALLOWING FOR A CLEAR AND WINDY DAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD
TONIGHT...SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR...ALLOWING FOR A VERY QUICK
DROP OFF IN TEMPERATURES. THINKING THAT TEMPS WILL DROP TO NEAR
FREEZING ON THE RIDGES AND BELOW FREEZING IN THE VALLEYS. SO HAVE
WENT WITH A FREEZE WARNING AREA WIDE TONIGHT. FROST IS LIKELY IS
MANY LOCATIONS...BUT ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.

AS THE HIGH MOVES TO OUR EAST TOMORROW...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
RETURNS AND WILL HELP USHER IN WARM MOIST AIR...AND A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN CLOUDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. PRECIP LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WHEN A WARM FRONT IS PROGGED
TO PUSH INTO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE MODELS HAVE FINALLY COME INTO PRETTY AGREEMENT IN THE
EXTENDED. THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS NOW CLOSELY RESEMBLES THE
LATEST ECMWF FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE PERIOD IS
PROGGED TO START OFF WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS...IT ALSO
APPEARS THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...LIKELY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE THE INSTABILITY AND LIFT MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST FOR THUNDER
TO COME TO AN END. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL POSSIBLE DURING THE
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES. AFTER THE LAST OF THE RAIN
FINALLY EXITS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE RESIDENTS OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY SHOULD EXPERIENCE A NICE BREAK FROM THE WET WEATHER TO
BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK. THE MODELS BOTH AGREE THAT A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE...BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMING WEATHER TO THE
AREA TO START THE WEEK.

A RATHER WELL DEVELOPED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO
MIGRATE ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND GEORGIA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MODELS DO DIFFER A BIT
HERE...HOWEVER...IN THAT THE ECMWF BRINGS MORE MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THAN THE GFS DOES. THE ECMWF SOLUTION ALSO
BRINGS HAS ITS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG TRACK THAT IS
FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS. THE END RESULT IS FOR THE ECMWF
SOUTHERN TRACK LOW TO PHASE WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IT
HAS MOVING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS ITS SOUTHERN TRACK LOW FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH THAT IT DOES NOT COUPLE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH.
THEREFORE...THE ECMWF IS PRODUCING QUITE A BIT MORE PRECIPITATION
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD THAN THE GFS.
WITH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTING DURING THIS PART OF THE
EXTENDED...DECIDED TO KEEP IN PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEDNESDAY
THURSDAY TIME PERIOD...BUT WITH MUCH LOWER PROBABILITIES THAN THE
LATEST ECMWF MODEL DATA ARE CURRENTLY SUGGESTING.

DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE EXTENDED LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE
PERIODS WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...AND CLOSE
TO NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WHEN THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE SAME
GENERAL PATTERN...WITH NORMAL VALUES ON TAP FOR THE END THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL/KAS
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL





    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities