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000
FXUS63 KJKL 071432 AAC
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1032 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

A RATHER MOIST AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF
A COLD FRONT. CONVECTION IS MOVING NEAR THE OH RIVER AND OVER
PARTS OF CENTRAL KY. SOME OF THIS IS APPROACHING THE SOMERSET
AREA. DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S WITH SBCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG. AS TEMPERATURES
CLIMB INTO THE 80S OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG EFFECTIVE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY ON
THE PERIPHERY OF THE APPROACHING CONVECTION. HOURLY POPS HAVE BEEN
INCREASED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR SOME OF THE WESTERN
COUNTIES IN ADVANCE OF THE CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL KY. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON RECENT
OBSERVATION TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS TO FRESHEN UP THE NEAR TERM ONES
PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD
AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP AS OF 630AM SO INCREASED POPS TO
INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCES EVERYWHERE THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...FRESHENED UP T/TD GRIDS TO INCORPORATE MOST RECENT
OBS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

FAIRLY QUIET MORNING ON TAP FOR THE COMMONWEALTH WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND SOME PATCHY FOG...BUT NOT NEARLY AS FOGGY AS IT WAS THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT. THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY...EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD EASTERN KENTUCKY. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 2.0 INCHES...MAKING THINGS
FEEL VERY STICKY. BY AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE NW PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY RESIDES
(WITHIN SPC/S MARGINAL RISK AREA) WITH LITTLE TO NO SHEAR. THAT
BEING SAID...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...BUT THE
BIGGER CONCERN IS THE HEAVY RAINFALL. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS
RECEIVED ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO OVER 10 INCHES OF RAIN THIS PAST WEEK SO
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY SLOW MOVING OR TRAINING STORMS. THE
MAJORITY OF STORMS SHOULD WANE BY LATE EVENING...WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE
ON WEDNESDAY....AS WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER IN THE MID 80S WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
FOR THE BEGINNING OF JULY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE
AS WELL...NEAR 70 DEGREES. THE BIGGER STORY HERE ARE THE DEW POINTS
WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO STAY NEAR 70 DEGREES THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR UNCOMFORTABLY MUGGY CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A SLOW BUILDING RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND DEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE FIRST TWO THIRDS OF
THE PERIOD BEFORE IT SLIPS WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST. INITIALLY...DURING THIS EVOLUTION...
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL RUN SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST JUST NORTH OF
THE JKL CWA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS PATH GETS SHUNTED NORTH
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH SO THAT BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
THE ENERGY WILL BE PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH...THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. HOWEVER...THE TRACK WILL PIVOT MORE SOUTHEAST...FOR THESE
WAVES...BY SUNDAY WITH SEVERAL PROGGED TO GRAZE EAST KENTUCKY
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. GIVEN THE DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG THE
MODELS A GENERAL BLEND WAS FAVORED ALONG WITH A HEALTHY EMBEDDED
DIURNAL CYCLE WITH POPS PEAKING LATE EACH AFTERNOON.

SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE EXTENDED WILL SEE THE WARMTH BUILD FOR
THE AREA IN ADDITION TO THE ONGOING HUMID CONDITIONS. SOME OF THE
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL START THE EXTENDED AS A
WAVY FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WHEN A SFC
WAVE MOVES THROUGH. THE NEXT SFC WAVE LOOKS TO PASS JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH ITS BEST PCPN CHANCES KEPT IN OHIO. IN
THE WAKE OF THIS...THOUGH...THE FRONT WILL LIKELY SAG BACK SOUTH
WHERE ITS ABILITY TO TRIGGER CONVECTION WILL COMPETE WITH BUILDING
HEIGHTS ALOFT. FOR FRIDAY...THE BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH IN THE
MODELS BUT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST NORTHEAST OF KENTUCKY. THIS WILL
PROBABLY CONTRIBUTE TO THE RING OF FIRE EFFECT...AROUND THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH...ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO REMAIN A
CONCERN FOR OUR NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WHILE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE FRONT COULD BE SINKING BACK
SOUTHWEST WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS A THREAT. THE ECMWF
THEN HAS THIS BOUNDARY SETTLING OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION ANTICIPATED. WHILE
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THE PATTERN LOOKS
MORE FAVORABLE FOR A BREAK IN THE EXCESSIVE RAIN EVENTS OF THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH AT THE PRICE OF STEAMIER CONDITIONS
WITH MID AND UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS IN MOST PLACES.

THE CR GRID BLEND CAME IN REASONABLY WELL WITH THE BULK OF ANY
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE POPS AND SKY TO ACCOUNT FOR A GOOD DIURNAL
CYCLE WITH THESE GRIDS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DID TWEAK THE LOWS
A BIT EACH NIGHT TO REPRESENT SOME MINOR TERRAIN EFFECTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS TAF SITES CURRENTLY...
WITH IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED TO VFR BY 13Z. THE FIRST SHOWERS AND
STORMS OF THE DAY WILL LIKELY BEGIN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AROUND
18Z SO HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT SYM WHERE THERE ARE HIGHER CHANCES
FOR POPS...WITH VCSH ELSEWHERE. ASSUMING THE TAF SITES SEE SOME
RAIN TOMORROW...HAVE INTRODUCED BR NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHER GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JVM





000
FXUS63 KJKL 071432 AAC
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1032 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

A RATHER MOIST AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF
A COLD FRONT. CONVECTION IS MOVING NEAR THE OH RIVER AND OVER
PARTS OF CENTRAL KY. SOME OF THIS IS APPROACHING THE SOMERSET
AREA. DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S WITH SBCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG. AS TEMPERATURES
CLIMB INTO THE 80S OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG EFFECTIVE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY ON
THE PERIPHERY OF THE APPROACHING CONVECTION. HOURLY POPS HAVE BEEN
INCREASED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR SOME OF THE WESTERN
COUNTIES IN ADVANCE OF THE CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL KY. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON RECENT
OBSERVATION TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS TO FRESHEN UP THE NEAR TERM ONES
PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD
AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP AS OF 630AM SO INCREASED POPS TO
INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCES EVERYWHERE THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...FRESHENED UP T/TD GRIDS TO INCORPORATE MOST RECENT
OBS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

FAIRLY QUIET MORNING ON TAP FOR THE COMMONWEALTH WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND SOME PATCHY FOG...BUT NOT NEARLY AS FOGGY AS IT WAS THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT. THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY...EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD EASTERN KENTUCKY. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 2.0 INCHES...MAKING THINGS
FEEL VERY STICKY. BY AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE NW PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY RESIDES
(WITHIN SPC/S MARGINAL RISK AREA) WITH LITTLE TO NO SHEAR. THAT
BEING SAID...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...BUT THE
BIGGER CONCERN IS THE HEAVY RAINFALL. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS
RECEIVED ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO OVER 10 INCHES OF RAIN THIS PAST WEEK SO
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY SLOW MOVING OR TRAINING STORMS. THE
MAJORITY OF STORMS SHOULD WANE BY LATE EVENING...WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE
ON WEDNESDAY....AS WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER IN THE MID 80S WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
FOR THE BEGINNING OF JULY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE
AS WELL...NEAR 70 DEGREES. THE BIGGER STORY HERE ARE THE DEW POINTS
WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO STAY NEAR 70 DEGREES THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR UNCOMFORTABLY MUGGY CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A SLOW BUILDING RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND DEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE FIRST TWO THIRDS OF
THE PERIOD BEFORE IT SLIPS WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST. INITIALLY...DURING THIS EVOLUTION...
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL RUN SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST JUST NORTH OF
THE JKL CWA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS PATH GETS SHUNTED NORTH
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH SO THAT BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
THE ENERGY WILL BE PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH...THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. HOWEVER...THE TRACK WILL PIVOT MORE SOUTHEAST...FOR THESE
WAVES...BY SUNDAY WITH SEVERAL PROGGED TO GRAZE EAST KENTUCKY
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. GIVEN THE DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG THE
MODELS A GENERAL BLEND WAS FAVORED ALONG WITH A HEALTHY EMBEDDED
DIURNAL CYCLE WITH POPS PEAKING LATE EACH AFTERNOON.

SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE EXTENDED WILL SEE THE WARMTH BUILD FOR
THE AREA IN ADDITION TO THE ONGOING HUMID CONDITIONS. SOME OF THE
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL START THE EXTENDED AS A
WAVY FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WHEN A SFC
WAVE MOVES THROUGH. THE NEXT SFC WAVE LOOKS TO PASS JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH ITS BEST PCPN CHANCES KEPT IN OHIO. IN
THE WAKE OF THIS...THOUGH...THE FRONT WILL LIKELY SAG BACK SOUTH
WHERE ITS ABILITY TO TRIGGER CONVECTION WILL COMPETE WITH BUILDING
HEIGHTS ALOFT. FOR FRIDAY...THE BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH IN THE
MODELS BUT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST NORTHEAST OF KENTUCKY. THIS WILL
PROBABLY CONTRIBUTE TO THE RING OF FIRE EFFECT...AROUND THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH...ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO REMAIN A
CONCERN FOR OUR NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WHILE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE FRONT COULD BE SINKING BACK
SOUTHWEST WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS A THREAT. THE ECMWF
THEN HAS THIS BOUNDARY SETTLING OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION ANTICIPATED. WHILE
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THE PATTERN LOOKS
MORE FAVORABLE FOR A BREAK IN THE EXCESSIVE RAIN EVENTS OF THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH AT THE PRICE OF STEAMIER CONDITIONS
WITH MID AND UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS IN MOST PLACES.

THE CR GRID BLEND CAME IN REASONABLY WELL WITH THE BULK OF ANY
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE POPS AND SKY TO ACCOUNT FOR A GOOD DIURNAL
CYCLE WITH THESE GRIDS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DID TWEAK THE LOWS
A BIT EACH NIGHT TO REPRESENT SOME MINOR TERRAIN EFFECTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS TAF SITES CURRENTLY...
WITH IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED TO VFR BY 13Z. THE FIRST SHOWERS AND
STORMS OF THE DAY WILL LIKELY BEGIN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AROUND
18Z SO HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT SYM WHERE THERE ARE HIGHER CHANCES
FOR POPS...WITH VCSH ELSEWHERE. ASSUMING THE TAF SITES SEE SOME
RAIN TOMORROW...HAVE INTRODUCED BR NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHER GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JVM




000
FXUS63 KJKL 071155 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
755 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS TO FRESHEN UP THE NEAR TERM ONES
PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD
AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP AS OF 630AM SO INCREASED POPS TO
INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCES EVERYWHERE THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...FRESHENED UP T/TD GRIDS TO INCORPORATE MOST RECENT
OBS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

FAIRLY QUIET MORNING ON TAP FOR THE COMMONWEALTH WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND SOME PATCHY FOG...BUT NOT NEARLY AS FOGGY AS IT WAS THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT. THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY...EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD EASTERN KENTUCKY. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 2.0 INCHES...MAKING THINGS
FEEL VERY STICKY. BY AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE NW PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY RESIDES
(WITHIN SPC/S MARGINAL RISK AREA) WITH LITTLE TO NO SHEAR. THAT
BEING SAID...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...BUT THE
BIGGER CONCERN IS THE HEAVY RAINFALL. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS
RECEIVED ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO OVER 10 INCHES OF RAIN THIS PAST WEEK SO
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY SLOW MOVING OR TRAINING STORMS. THE
MAJORITY OF STORMS SHOULD WANE BY LATE EVENING...WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE
ON WEDNESDAY....AS WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER IN THE MID 80S WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
FOR THE BEGINNING OF JULY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE
AS WELL...NEAR 70 DEGREES. THE BIGGER STORY HERE ARE THE DEW POINTS
WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO STAY NEAR 70 DEGREES THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR UNCOMFORTABLY MUGGY CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A SLOW BUILDING RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND DEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE FIRST TWO THIRDS OF
THE PERIOD BEFORE IT SLIPS WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST. INITIALLY...DURING THIS EVOLUTION...
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL RUN SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST JUST NORTH OF
THE JKL CWA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS PATH GETS SHUNTED NORTH
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH SO THAT BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
THE ENERGY WILL BE PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH...THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. HOWEVER...THE TRACK WILL PIVOT MORE SOUTHEAST...FOR THESE
WAVES...BY SUNDAY WITH SEVERAL PROGGED TO GRAZE EAST KENTUCKY
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. GIVEN THE DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG THE
MODELS A GENERAL BLEND WAS FAVORED ALONG WITH A HEALTHY EMBEDDED
DIURNAL CYCLE WITH POPS PEAKING LATE EACH AFTERNOON.

SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE EXTENDED WILL SEE THE WARMTH BUILD FOR
THE AREA IN ADDITION TO THE ONGOING HUMID CONDITIONS. SOME OF THE
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL START THE EXTENDED AS A
WAVY FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WHEN A SFC
WAVE MOVES THROUGH. THE NEXT SFC WAVE LOOKS TO PASS JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH ITS BEST PCPN CHANCES KEPT IN OHIO. IN
THE WAKE OF THIS...THOUGH...THE FRONT WILL LIKELY SAG BACK SOUTH
WHERE ITS ABILITY TO TRIGGER CONVECTION WILL COMPETE WITH BUILDING
HEIGHTS ALOFT. FOR FRIDAY...THE BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH IN THE
MODELS BUT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST NORTHEAST OF KENTUCKY. THIS WILL
PROBABLY CONTRIBUTE TO THE RING OF FIRE EFFECT...AROUND THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH...ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO REMAIN A
CONCERN FOR OUR NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WHILE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE FRONT COULD BE SINKING BACK
SOUTHWEST WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS A THREAT. THE ECMWF
THEN HAS THIS BOUNDARY SETTLING OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION ANTICIPATED. WHILE
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THE PATTERN LOOKS
MORE FAVORABLE FOR A BREAK IN THE EXCESSIVE RAIN EVENTS OF THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH AT THE PRICE OF STEAMIER CONDITIONS
WITH MID AND UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS IN MOST PLACES.

THE CR GRID BLEND CAME IN REASONABLY WELL WITH THE BULK OF ANY
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE POPS AND SKY TO ACCOUNT FOR A GOOD DIURNAL
CYCLE WITH THESE GRIDS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DID TWEAK THE LOWS
A BIT EACH NIGHT TO REPRESENT SOME MINOR TERRAIN EFFECTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS TAF SITES CURRENTLY...
WITH IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED TO VFR BY 13Z. THE FIRST SHOWERS AND
STORMS OF THE DAY WILL LIKELY BEGIN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AROUND
18Z SO HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT SYM WHERE THERE ARE HIGHER CHANCES
FOR POPS...WITH VCSH ELSEWHERE. ASSUMING THE TAF SITES SEE SOME
RAIN TOMORROW...HAVE INTRODUCED BR NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHER GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JVM





000
FXUS63 KJKL 071155 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
755 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS TO FRESHEN UP THE NEAR TERM ONES
PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD
AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP AS OF 630AM SO INCREASED POPS TO
INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCES EVERYWHERE THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...FRESHENED UP T/TD GRIDS TO INCORPORATE MOST RECENT
OBS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

FAIRLY QUIET MORNING ON TAP FOR THE COMMONWEALTH WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND SOME PATCHY FOG...BUT NOT NEARLY AS FOGGY AS IT WAS THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT. THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY...EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD EASTERN KENTUCKY. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 2.0 INCHES...MAKING THINGS
FEEL VERY STICKY. BY AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE NW PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY RESIDES
(WITHIN SPC/S MARGINAL RISK AREA) WITH LITTLE TO NO SHEAR. THAT
BEING SAID...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...BUT THE
BIGGER CONCERN IS THE HEAVY RAINFALL. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS
RECEIVED ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO OVER 10 INCHES OF RAIN THIS PAST WEEK SO
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY SLOW MOVING OR TRAINING STORMS. THE
MAJORITY OF STORMS SHOULD WANE BY LATE EVENING...WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE
ON WEDNESDAY....AS WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER IN THE MID 80S WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
FOR THE BEGINNING OF JULY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE
AS WELL...NEAR 70 DEGREES. THE BIGGER STORY HERE ARE THE DEW POINTS
WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO STAY NEAR 70 DEGREES THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR UNCOMFORTABLY MUGGY CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A SLOW BUILDING RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND DEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE FIRST TWO THIRDS OF
THE PERIOD BEFORE IT SLIPS WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST. INITIALLY...DURING THIS EVOLUTION...
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL RUN SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST JUST NORTH OF
THE JKL CWA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS PATH GETS SHUNTED NORTH
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH SO THAT BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
THE ENERGY WILL BE PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH...THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. HOWEVER...THE TRACK WILL PIVOT MORE SOUTHEAST...FOR THESE
WAVES...BY SUNDAY WITH SEVERAL PROGGED TO GRAZE EAST KENTUCKY
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. GIVEN THE DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG THE
MODELS A GENERAL BLEND WAS FAVORED ALONG WITH A HEALTHY EMBEDDED
DIURNAL CYCLE WITH POPS PEAKING LATE EACH AFTERNOON.

SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE EXTENDED WILL SEE THE WARMTH BUILD FOR
THE AREA IN ADDITION TO THE ONGOING HUMID CONDITIONS. SOME OF THE
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL START THE EXTENDED AS A
WAVY FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WHEN A SFC
WAVE MOVES THROUGH. THE NEXT SFC WAVE LOOKS TO PASS JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH ITS BEST PCPN CHANCES KEPT IN OHIO. IN
THE WAKE OF THIS...THOUGH...THE FRONT WILL LIKELY SAG BACK SOUTH
WHERE ITS ABILITY TO TRIGGER CONVECTION WILL COMPETE WITH BUILDING
HEIGHTS ALOFT. FOR FRIDAY...THE BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH IN THE
MODELS BUT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST NORTHEAST OF KENTUCKY. THIS WILL
PROBABLY CONTRIBUTE TO THE RING OF FIRE EFFECT...AROUND THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH...ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO REMAIN A
CONCERN FOR OUR NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WHILE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE FRONT COULD BE SINKING BACK
SOUTHWEST WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS A THREAT. THE ECMWF
THEN HAS THIS BOUNDARY SETTLING OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION ANTICIPATED. WHILE
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THE PATTERN LOOKS
MORE FAVORABLE FOR A BREAK IN THE EXCESSIVE RAIN EVENTS OF THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH AT THE PRICE OF STEAMIER CONDITIONS
WITH MID AND UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS IN MOST PLACES.

THE CR GRID BLEND CAME IN REASONABLY WELL WITH THE BULK OF ANY
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE POPS AND SKY TO ACCOUNT FOR A GOOD DIURNAL
CYCLE WITH THESE GRIDS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DID TWEAK THE LOWS
A BIT EACH NIGHT TO REPRESENT SOME MINOR TERRAIN EFFECTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS TAF SITES CURRENTLY...
WITH IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED TO VFR BY 13Z. THE FIRST SHOWERS AND
STORMS OF THE DAY WILL LIKELY BEGIN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AROUND
18Z SO HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT SYM WHERE THERE ARE HIGHER CHANCES
FOR POPS...WITH VCSH ELSEWHERE. ASSUMING THE TAF SITES SEE SOME
RAIN TOMORROW...HAVE INTRODUCED BR NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHER GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JVM




000
FXUS63 KJKL 071155 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
755 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS TO FRESHEN UP THE NEAR TERM ONES
PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD
AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP AS OF 630AM SO INCREASED POPS TO
INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCES EVERYWHERE THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...FRESHENED UP T/TD GRIDS TO INCORPORATE MOST RECENT
OBS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

FAIRLY QUIET MORNING ON TAP FOR THE COMMONWEALTH WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND SOME PATCHY FOG...BUT NOT NEARLY AS FOGGY AS IT WAS THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT. THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY...EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD EASTERN KENTUCKY. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 2.0 INCHES...MAKING THINGS
FEEL VERY STICKY. BY AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE NW PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY RESIDES
(WITHIN SPC/S MARGINAL RISK AREA) WITH LITTLE TO NO SHEAR. THAT
BEING SAID...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...BUT THE
BIGGER CONCERN IS THE HEAVY RAINFALL. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS
RECEIVED ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO OVER 10 INCHES OF RAIN THIS PAST WEEK SO
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY SLOW MOVING OR TRAINING STORMS. THE
MAJORITY OF STORMS SHOULD WANE BY LATE EVENING...WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE
ON WEDNESDAY....AS WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER IN THE MID 80S WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
FOR THE BEGINNING OF JULY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE
AS WELL...NEAR 70 DEGREES. THE BIGGER STORY HERE ARE THE DEW POINTS
WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO STAY NEAR 70 DEGREES THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR UNCOMFORTABLY MUGGY CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A SLOW BUILDING RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND DEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE FIRST TWO THIRDS OF
THE PERIOD BEFORE IT SLIPS WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST. INITIALLY...DURING THIS EVOLUTION...
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL RUN SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST JUST NORTH OF
THE JKL CWA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS PATH GETS SHUNTED NORTH
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH SO THAT BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
THE ENERGY WILL BE PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH...THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. HOWEVER...THE TRACK WILL PIVOT MORE SOUTHEAST...FOR THESE
WAVES...BY SUNDAY WITH SEVERAL PROGGED TO GRAZE EAST KENTUCKY
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. GIVEN THE DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG THE
MODELS A GENERAL BLEND WAS FAVORED ALONG WITH A HEALTHY EMBEDDED
DIURNAL CYCLE WITH POPS PEAKING LATE EACH AFTERNOON.

SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE EXTENDED WILL SEE THE WARMTH BUILD FOR
THE AREA IN ADDITION TO THE ONGOING HUMID CONDITIONS. SOME OF THE
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL START THE EXTENDED AS A
WAVY FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WHEN A SFC
WAVE MOVES THROUGH. THE NEXT SFC WAVE LOOKS TO PASS JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH ITS BEST PCPN CHANCES KEPT IN OHIO. IN
THE WAKE OF THIS...THOUGH...THE FRONT WILL LIKELY SAG BACK SOUTH
WHERE ITS ABILITY TO TRIGGER CONVECTION WILL COMPETE WITH BUILDING
HEIGHTS ALOFT. FOR FRIDAY...THE BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH IN THE
MODELS BUT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST NORTHEAST OF KENTUCKY. THIS WILL
PROBABLY CONTRIBUTE TO THE RING OF FIRE EFFECT...AROUND THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH...ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO REMAIN A
CONCERN FOR OUR NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WHILE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE FRONT COULD BE SINKING BACK
SOUTHWEST WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS A THREAT. THE ECMWF
THEN HAS THIS BOUNDARY SETTLING OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION ANTICIPATED. WHILE
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THE PATTERN LOOKS
MORE FAVORABLE FOR A BREAK IN THE EXCESSIVE RAIN EVENTS OF THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH AT THE PRICE OF STEAMIER CONDITIONS
WITH MID AND UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS IN MOST PLACES.

THE CR GRID BLEND CAME IN REASONABLY WELL WITH THE BULK OF ANY
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE POPS AND SKY TO ACCOUNT FOR A GOOD DIURNAL
CYCLE WITH THESE GRIDS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DID TWEAK THE LOWS
A BIT EACH NIGHT TO REPRESENT SOME MINOR TERRAIN EFFECTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS TAF SITES CURRENTLY...
WITH IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED TO VFR BY 13Z. THE FIRST SHOWERS AND
STORMS OF THE DAY WILL LIKELY BEGIN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AROUND
18Z SO HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT SYM WHERE THERE ARE HIGHER CHANCES
FOR POPS...WITH VCSH ELSEWHERE. ASSUMING THE TAF SITES SEE SOME
RAIN TOMORROW...HAVE INTRODUCED BR NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHER GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JVM




000
FXUS63 KJKL 071155 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
755 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS TO FRESHEN UP THE NEAR TERM ONES
PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD
AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP AS OF 630AM SO INCREASED POPS TO
INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCES EVERYWHERE THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...FRESHENED UP T/TD GRIDS TO INCORPORATE MOST RECENT
OBS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

FAIRLY QUIET MORNING ON TAP FOR THE COMMONWEALTH WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND SOME PATCHY FOG...BUT NOT NEARLY AS FOGGY AS IT WAS THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT. THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY...EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD EASTERN KENTUCKY. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 2.0 INCHES...MAKING THINGS
FEEL VERY STICKY. BY AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE NW PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY RESIDES
(WITHIN SPC/S MARGINAL RISK AREA) WITH LITTLE TO NO SHEAR. THAT
BEING SAID...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...BUT THE
BIGGER CONCERN IS THE HEAVY RAINFALL. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS
RECEIVED ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO OVER 10 INCHES OF RAIN THIS PAST WEEK SO
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY SLOW MOVING OR TRAINING STORMS. THE
MAJORITY OF STORMS SHOULD WANE BY LATE EVENING...WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE
ON WEDNESDAY....AS WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER IN THE MID 80S WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
FOR THE BEGINNING OF JULY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE
AS WELL...NEAR 70 DEGREES. THE BIGGER STORY HERE ARE THE DEW POINTS
WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO STAY NEAR 70 DEGREES THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR UNCOMFORTABLY MUGGY CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A SLOW BUILDING RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND DEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE FIRST TWO THIRDS OF
THE PERIOD BEFORE IT SLIPS WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST. INITIALLY...DURING THIS EVOLUTION...
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL RUN SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST JUST NORTH OF
THE JKL CWA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS PATH GETS SHUNTED NORTH
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH SO THAT BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
THE ENERGY WILL BE PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH...THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. HOWEVER...THE TRACK WILL PIVOT MORE SOUTHEAST...FOR THESE
WAVES...BY SUNDAY WITH SEVERAL PROGGED TO GRAZE EAST KENTUCKY
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. GIVEN THE DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG THE
MODELS A GENERAL BLEND WAS FAVORED ALONG WITH A HEALTHY EMBEDDED
DIURNAL CYCLE WITH POPS PEAKING LATE EACH AFTERNOON.

SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE EXTENDED WILL SEE THE WARMTH BUILD FOR
THE AREA IN ADDITION TO THE ONGOING HUMID CONDITIONS. SOME OF THE
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL START THE EXTENDED AS A
WAVY FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WHEN A SFC
WAVE MOVES THROUGH. THE NEXT SFC WAVE LOOKS TO PASS JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH ITS BEST PCPN CHANCES KEPT IN OHIO. IN
THE WAKE OF THIS...THOUGH...THE FRONT WILL LIKELY SAG BACK SOUTH
WHERE ITS ABILITY TO TRIGGER CONVECTION WILL COMPETE WITH BUILDING
HEIGHTS ALOFT. FOR FRIDAY...THE BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH IN THE
MODELS BUT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST NORTHEAST OF KENTUCKY. THIS WILL
PROBABLY CONTRIBUTE TO THE RING OF FIRE EFFECT...AROUND THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH...ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO REMAIN A
CONCERN FOR OUR NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WHILE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE FRONT COULD BE SINKING BACK
SOUTHWEST WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS A THREAT. THE ECMWF
THEN HAS THIS BOUNDARY SETTLING OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION ANTICIPATED. WHILE
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THE PATTERN LOOKS
MORE FAVORABLE FOR A BREAK IN THE EXCESSIVE RAIN EVENTS OF THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH AT THE PRICE OF STEAMIER CONDITIONS
WITH MID AND UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS IN MOST PLACES.

THE CR GRID BLEND CAME IN REASONABLY WELL WITH THE BULK OF ANY
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE POPS AND SKY TO ACCOUNT FOR A GOOD DIURNAL
CYCLE WITH THESE GRIDS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DID TWEAK THE LOWS
A BIT EACH NIGHT TO REPRESENT SOME MINOR TERRAIN EFFECTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS TAF SITES CURRENTLY...
WITH IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED TO VFR BY 13Z. THE FIRST SHOWERS AND
STORMS OF THE DAY WILL LIKELY BEGIN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AROUND
18Z SO HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT SYM WHERE THERE ARE HIGHER CHANCES
FOR POPS...WITH VCSH ELSEWHERE. ASSUMING THE TAF SITES SEE SOME
RAIN TOMORROW...HAVE INTRODUCED BR NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHER GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JVM





000
FXUS63 KJKL 071035
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
635 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP AS OF 630AM SO INCREASED POPS TO
INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCES EVERYWHERE THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...FRESHENED UP T/TD GRIDS TO INCORPORATE MOST RECENT
OBS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

FAIRLY QUIET MORNING ON TAP FOR THE COMMONWEALTH WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND SOME PATCHY FOG...BUT NOT NEARLY AS FOGGY AS IT WAS THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT. THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY...EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD EASTERN KENTUCKY. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 2.0 INCHES...MAKING THINGS
FEEL VERY STICKY. BY AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE NW PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY RESIDES
(WITHIN SPC/S MARGINAL RISK AREA) WITH LITTLE TO NO SHEAR. THAT
BEING SAID...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...BUT THE
BIGGER CONCERN IS THE HEAVY RAINFALL. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS
RECEIVED ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO OVER 10 INCHES OF RAIN THIS PAST WEEK SO
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY SLOW MOVING OR TRAINING STORMS. THE
MAJORITY OF STORMS SHOULD WANE BY LATE EVENING...WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE
ON WEDNESDAY....AS WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER IN THE MID 80S WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
FOR THE BEGINNING OF JULY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE
AS WELL...NEAR 70 DEGREES. THE BIGGER STORY HERE ARE THE DEW POINTS
WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO STAY NEAR 70 DEGREES THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR UNCOMFORTABLY MUGGY CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A SLOW BUILDING RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND DEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE FIRST TWO THIRDS OF
THE PERIOD BEFORE IT SLIPS WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST. INITIALLY...DURING THIS EVOLUTION...
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL RUN SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST JUST NORTH OF
THE JKL CWA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS PATH GETS SHUNTED NORTH
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH SO THAT BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
THE ENERGY WILL BE PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH...THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. HOWEVER...THE TRACK WILL PIVOT MORE SOUTHEAST...FOR THESE
WAVES...BY SUNDAY WITH SEVERAL PROGGED TO GRAZE EAST KENTUCKY
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. GIVEN THE DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG THE
MODELS A GENERAL BLEND WAS FAVORED ALONG WITH A HEALTHY EMBEDDED
DIURNAL CYCLE WITH POPS PEAKING LATE EACH AFTERNOON.

SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE EXTENDED WILL SEE THE WARMTH BUILD FOR
THE AREA IN ADDITION TO THE ONGOING HUMID CONDITIONS. SOME OF THE
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL START THE EXTENDED AS A
WAVY FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WHEN A SFC
WAVE MOVES THROUGH. THE NEXT SFC WAVE LOOKS TO PASS JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH ITS BEST PCPN CHANCES KEPT IN OHIO. IN
THE WAKE OF THIS...THOUGH...THE FRONT WILL LIKELY SAG BACK SOUTH
WHERE ITS ABILITY TO TRIGGER CONVECTION WILL COMPETE WITH BUILDING
HEIGHTS ALOFT. FOR FRIDAY...THE BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH IN THE
MODELS BUT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST NORTHEAST OF KENTUCKY. THIS WILL
PROBABLY CONTRIBUTE TO THE RING OF FIRE EFFECT...AROUND THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH...ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO REMAIN A
CONCERN FOR OUR NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WHILE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE FRONT COULD BE SINKING BACK
SOUTHWEST WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS A THREAT. THE ECMWF
THEN HAS THIS BOUNDARY SETTLING OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION ANTICIPATED. WHILE
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THE PATTERN LOOKS
MORE FAVORABLE FOR A BREAK IN THE EXCESSIVE RAIN EVENTS OF THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH AT THE PRICE OF STEAMIER CONDITIONS
WITH MID AND UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS IN MOST PLACES.

THE CR GRID BLEND CAME IN REASONABLY WELL WITH THE BULK OF ANY
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE POPS AND SKY TO ACCOUNT FOR A GOOD DIURNAL
CYCLE WITH THESE GRIDS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DID TWEAK THE LOWS
A BIT EACH NIGHT TO REPRESENT SOME MINOR TERRAIN EFFECTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS TAF SITES
CURRENTLY...WITH A DROP TO NEAR IFR OR BELOW AT SME AND LOZ BY 09Z
LIKELY. THE REMAINING SITES SHOULD STAY AT MVFR FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR BY 13Z. THE FIRST SHOWERS AND
STORMS OF THE DAY WILL LIKELY BEGIN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AROUND
18Z SO HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT SYM WHERE THERE ARE HIGHER CHANCES
FOR POPS...WITH VCSH ELSEWHERE. ASSUMING THE TAF SITES SEE SOME
RAIN TOMORROW...HAVE INTRODUCED BR NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHER GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JVM





000
FXUS63 KJKL 071035
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
635 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP AS OF 630AM SO INCREASED POPS TO
INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCES EVERYWHERE THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...FRESHENED UP T/TD GRIDS TO INCORPORATE MOST RECENT
OBS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

FAIRLY QUIET MORNING ON TAP FOR THE COMMONWEALTH WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND SOME PATCHY FOG...BUT NOT NEARLY AS FOGGY AS IT WAS THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT. THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY...EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD EASTERN KENTUCKY. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 2.0 INCHES...MAKING THINGS
FEEL VERY STICKY. BY AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE NW PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY RESIDES
(WITHIN SPC/S MARGINAL RISK AREA) WITH LITTLE TO NO SHEAR. THAT
BEING SAID...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...BUT THE
BIGGER CONCERN IS THE HEAVY RAINFALL. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS
RECEIVED ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO OVER 10 INCHES OF RAIN THIS PAST WEEK SO
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY SLOW MOVING OR TRAINING STORMS. THE
MAJORITY OF STORMS SHOULD WANE BY LATE EVENING...WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE
ON WEDNESDAY....AS WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER IN THE MID 80S WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
FOR THE BEGINNING OF JULY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE
AS WELL...NEAR 70 DEGREES. THE BIGGER STORY HERE ARE THE DEW POINTS
WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO STAY NEAR 70 DEGREES THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR UNCOMFORTABLY MUGGY CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A SLOW BUILDING RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND DEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE FIRST TWO THIRDS OF
THE PERIOD BEFORE IT SLIPS WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST. INITIALLY...DURING THIS EVOLUTION...
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL RUN SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST JUST NORTH OF
THE JKL CWA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS PATH GETS SHUNTED NORTH
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH SO THAT BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
THE ENERGY WILL BE PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH...THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. HOWEVER...THE TRACK WILL PIVOT MORE SOUTHEAST...FOR THESE
WAVES...BY SUNDAY WITH SEVERAL PROGGED TO GRAZE EAST KENTUCKY
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. GIVEN THE DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG THE
MODELS A GENERAL BLEND WAS FAVORED ALONG WITH A HEALTHY EMBEDDED
DIURNAL CYCLE WITH POPS PEAKING LATE EACH AFTERNOON.

SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE EXTENDED WILL SEE THE WARMTH BUILD FOR
THE AREA IN ADDITION TO THE ONGOING HUMID CONDITIONS. SOME OF THE
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL START THE EXTENDED AS A
WAVY FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WHEN A SFC
WAVE MOVES THROUGH. THE NEXT SFC WAVE LOOKS TO PASS JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH ITS BEST PCPN CHANCES KEPT IN OHIO. IN
THE WAKE OF THIS...THOUGH...THE FRONT WILL LIKELY SAG BACK SOUTH
WHERE ITS ABILITY TO TRIGGER CONVECTION WILL COMPETE WITH BUILDING
HEIGHTS ALOFT. FOR FRIDAY...THE BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH IN THE
MODELS BUT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST NORTHEAST OF KENTUCKY. THIS WILL
PROBABLY CONTRIBUTE TO THE RING OF FIRE EFFECT...AROUND THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH...ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO REMAIN A
CONCERN FOR OUR NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WHILE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE FRONT COULD BE SINKING BACK
SOUTHWEST WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS A THREAT. THE ECMWF
THEN HAS THIS BOUNDARY SETTLING OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION ANTICIPATED. WHILE
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THE PATTERN LOOKS
MORE FAVORABLE FOR A BREAK IN THE EXCESSIVE RAIN EVENTS OF THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH AT THE PRICE OF STEAMIER CONDITIONS
WITH MID AND UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS IN MOST PLACES.

THE CR GRID BLEND CAME IN REASONABLY WELL WITH THE BULK OF ANY
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE POPS AND SKY TO ACCOUNT FOR A GOOD DIURNAL
CYCLE WITH THESE GRIDS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DID TWEAK THE LOWS
A BIT EACH NIGHT TO REPRESENT SOME MINOR TERRAIN EFFECTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS TAF SITES
CURRENTLY...WITH A DROP TO NEAR IFR OR BELOW AT SME AND LOZ BY 09Z
LIKELY. THE REMAINING SITES SHOULD STAY AT MVFR FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR BY 13Z. THE FIRST SHOWERS AND
STORMS OF THE DAY WILL LIKELY BEGIN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AROUND
18Z SO HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT SYM WHERE THERE ARE HIGHER CHANCES
FOR POPS...WITH VCSH ELSEWHERE. ASSUMING THE TAF SITES SEE SOME
RAIN TOMORROW...HAVE INTRODUCED BR NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHER GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JVM




000
FXUS63 KJKL 071035
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
635 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP AS OF 630AM SO INCREASED POPS TO
INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCES EVERYWHERE THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...FRESHENED UP T/TD GRIDS TO INCORPORATE MOST RECENT
OBS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

FAIRLY QUIET MORNING ON TAP FOR THE COMMONWEALTH WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND SOME PATCHY FOG...BUT NOT NEARLY AS FOGGY AS IT WAS THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT. THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY...EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD EASTERN KENTUCKY. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 2.0 INCHES...MAKING THINGS
FEEL VERY STICKY. BY AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE NW PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY RESIDES
(WITHIN SPC/S MARGINAL RISK AREA) WITH LITTLE TO NO SHEAR. THAT
BEING SAID...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...BUT THE
BIGGER CONCERN IS THE HEAVY RAINFALL. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS
RECEIVED ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO OVER 10 INCHES OF RAIN THIS PAST WEEK SO
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY SLOW MOVING OR TRAINING STORMS. THE
MAJORITY OF STORMS SHOULD WANE BY LATE EVENING...WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE
ON WEDNESDAY....AS WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER IN THE MID 80S WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
FOR THE BEGINNING OF JULY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE
AS WELL...NEAR 70 DEGREES. THE BIGGER STORY HERE ARE THE DEW POINTS
WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO STAY NEAR 70 DEGREES THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR UNCOMFORTABLY MUGGY CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A SLOW BUILDING RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND DEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE FIRST TWO THIRDS OF
THE PERIOD BEFORE IT SLIPS WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST. INITIALLY...DURING THIS EVOLUTION...
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL RUN SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST JUST NORTH OF
THE JKL CWA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS PATH GETS SHUNTED NORTH
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH SO THAT BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
THE ENERGY WILL BE PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH...THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. HOWEVER...THE TRACK WILL PIVOT MORE SOUTHEAST...FOR THESE
WAVES...BY SUNDAY WITH SEVERAL PROGGED TO GRAZE EAST KENTUCKY
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. GIVEN THE DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG THE
MODELS A GENERAL BLEND WAS FAVORED ALONG WITH A HEALTHY EMBEDDED
DIURNAL CYCLE WITH POPS PEAKING LATE EACH AFTERNOON.

SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE EXTENDED WILL SEE THE WARMTH BUILD FOR
THE AREA IN ADDITION TO THE ONGOING HUMID CONDITIONS. SOME OF THE
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL START THE EXTENDED AS A
WAVY FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WHEN A SFC
WAVE MOVES THROUGH. THE NEXT SFC WAVE LOOKS TO PASS JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH ITS BEST PCPN CHANCES KEPT IN OHIO. IN
THE WAKE OF THIS...THOUGH...THE FRONT WILL LIKELY SAG BACK SOUTH
WHERE ITS ABILITY TO TRIGGER CONVECTION WILL COMPETE WITH BUILDING
HEIGHTS ALOFT. FOR FRIDAY...THE BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH IN THE
MODELS BUT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST NORTHEAST OF KENTUCKY. THIS WILL
PROBABLY CONTRIBUTE TO THE RING OF FIRE EFFECT...AROUND THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH...ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO REMAIN A
CONCERN FOR OUR NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WHILE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE FRONT COULD BE SINKING BACK
SOUTHWEST WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS A THREAT. THE ECMWF
THEN HAS THIS BOUNDARY SETTLING OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION ANTICIPATED. WHILE
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THE PATTERN LOOKS
MORE FAVORABLE FOR A BREAK IN THE EXCESSIVE RAIN EVENTS OF THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH AT THE PRICE OF STEAMIER CONDITIONS
WITH MID AND UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS IN MOST PLACES.

THE CR GRID BLEND CAME IN REASONABLY WELL WITH THE BULK OF ANY
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE POPS AND SKY TO ACCOUNT FOR A GOOD DIURNAL
CYCLE WITH THESE GRIDS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DID TWEAK THE LOWS
A BIT EACH NIGHT TO REPRESENT SOME MINOR TERRAIN EFFECTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS TAF SITES
CURRENTLY...WITH A DROP TO NEAR IFR OR BELOW AT SME AND LOZ BY 09Z
LIKELY. THE REMAINING SITES SHOULD STAY AT MVFR FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR BY 13Z. THE FIRST SHOWERS AND
STORMS OF THE DAY WILL LIKELY BEGIN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AROUND
18Z SO HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT SYM WHERE THERE ARE HIGHER CHANCES
FOR POPS...WITH VCSH ELSEWHERE. ASSUMING THE TAF SITES SEE SOME
RAIN TOMORROW...HAVE INTRODUCED BR NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHER GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JVM





000
FXUS63 KJKL 070800 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
400 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

FAIRLY QUIET MORNING ON TAP FOR THE COMMONWEALTH WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND SOME PATCHY FOG...BUT NOT NEARLY AS FOGGY AS IT WAS THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT. THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY...EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD EASTERN KENTUCKY. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 2.0 INCHES...MAKING THINGS
FEEL VERY STICKY. BY AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE NW PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY RESIDES
(WITHIN SPC/S MARGINAL RISK AREA) WITH LITTLE TO NO SHEAR. THAT
BEING SAID...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...BUT THE
BIGGER CONCERN IS THE HEAVY RAINFALL. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS
RECEIVED ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO OVER 10 INCHES OF RAIN THIS PAST WEEK SO
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY SLOW MOVING OR TRAINING STORMS. THE
MAJORITY OF STORMS SHOULD WANE BY LATE EVENING...WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE
ON WEDNESDAY....AS WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER IN THE MID 80S WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
FOR THE BEGINNING OF JULY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE
AS WELL...NEAR 70 DEGREES. THE BIGGER STORY HERE ARE THE DEW POINTS
WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO STAY NEAR 70 DEGREES THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR UNCOMFORTABLY MUGGY CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A SLOW BUILDING RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND DEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE FIRST TWO THIRDS OF
THE PERIOD BEFORE IT SLIPS WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST. INITIALLY...DURING THIS EVOLUTION...
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL RUN SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST JUST NORTH OF
THE JKL CWA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS PATH GETS SHUNTED NORTH
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH SO THAT BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
THE ENERGY WILL BE PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH...THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. HOWEVER...THE TRACK WILL PIVOT MORE SOUTHEAST...FOR THESE
WAVES...BY SUNDAY WITH SEVERAL PROGGED TO GRAZE EAST KENTUCKY
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. GIVEN THE DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG THE
MODELS A GENERAL BLEND WAS FAVORED ALONG WITH A HEALTHY EMBEDDED
DIURNAL CYCLE WITH POPS PEAKING LATE EACH AFTERNOON.

SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE EXTENDED WILL SEE THE WARMTH BUILD FOR
THE AREA IN ADDITION TO THE ONGOING HUMID CONDITIONS. SOME OF THE
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL START THE EXTENDED AS A
WAVY FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WHEN A SFC
WAVE MOVES THROUGH. THE NEXT SFC WAVE LOOKS TO PASS JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH ITS BEST PCPN CHANCES KEPT IN OHIO. IN
THE WAKE OF THIS...THOUGH...THE FRONT WILL LIKELY SAG BACK SOUTH
WHERE ITS ABILITY TO TRIGGER CONVECTION WILL COMPETE WITH BUILDING
HEIGHTS ALOFT. FOR FRIDAY...THE BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH IN THE
MODELS BUT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST NORTHEAST OF KENTUCKY. THIS WILL
PROBABLY CONTRIBUTE TO THE RING OF FIRE EFFECT...AROUND THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH...ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO REMAIN A
CONCERN FOR OUR NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WHILE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE FRONT COULD BE SINKING BACK
SOUTHWEST WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS A THREAT. THE ECMWF
THEN HAS THIS BOUNDARY SETTLING OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION ANTICIPATED. WHILE
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THE PATTERN LOOKS
MORE FAVORABLE FOR A BREAK IN THE EXCESSIVE RAIN EVENTS OF THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH AT THE PRICE OF STEAMIER CONDITIONS
WITH MID AND UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS IN MOST PLACES.

THE CR GRID BLEND CAME IN REASONABLY WELL WITH THE BULK OF ANY
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE POPS AND SKY TO ACCOUNT FOR A GOOD DIURNAL
CYCLE WITH THESE GRIDS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DID TWEAK THE LOWS
A BIT EACH NIGHT TO REPRESENT SOME MINOR TERRAIN EFFECTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS TAF SITES
CURRENTLY...WITH A DROP TO NEAR IFR OR BELOW AT SME AND LOZ BY 09Z
LIKELY. THE REMAINING SITES SHOULD STAY AT MVFR FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR BY 13Z. THE FIRST SHOWERS AND
STORMS OF THE DAY WILL LIKELY BEGIN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AROUND
18Z SO HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT SYM WHERE THERE ARE HIGHER CHANCES
FOR POPS...WITH VCSH ELSEWHERE. ASSUMING THE TAF SITES SEE SOME
RAIN TOMORROW...HAVE INTRODUCED BR NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHER GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JVM




000
FXUS63 KJKL 070800 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
400 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

FAIRLY QUIET MORNING ON TAP FOR THE COMMONWEALTH WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND SOME PATCHY FOG...BUT NOT NEARLY AS FOGGY AS IT WAS THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT. THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY...EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD EASTERN KENTUCKY. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 2.0 INCHES...MAKING THINGS
FEEL VERY STICKY. BY AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE NW PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY RESIDES
(WITHIN SPC/S MARGINAL RISK AREA) WITH LITTLE TO NO SHEAR. THAT
BEING SAID...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...BUT THE
BIGGER CONCERN IS THE HEAVY RAINFALL. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS
RECEIVED ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO OVER 10 INCHES OF RAIN THIS PAST WEEK SO
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY SLOW MOVING OR TRAINING STORMS. THE
MAJORITY OF STORMS SHOULD WANE BY LATE EVENING...WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE
ON WEDNESDAY....AS WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER IN THE MID 80S WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
FOR THE BEGINNING OF JULY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE
AS WELL...NEAR 70 DEGREES. THE BIGGER STORY HERE ARE THE DEW POINTS
WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO STAY NEAR 70 DEGREES THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR UNCOMFORTABLY MUGGY CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A SLOW BUILDING RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND DEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE FIRST TWO THIRDS OF
THE PERIOD BEFORE IT SLIPS WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST. INITIALLY...DURING THIS EVOLUTION...
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL RUN SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST JUST NORTH OF
THE JKL CWA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS PATH GETS SHUNTED NORTH
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH SO THAT BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
THE ENERGY WILL BE PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH...THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. HOWEVER...THE TRACK WILL PIVOT MORE SOUTHEAST...FOR THESE
WAVES...BY SUNDAY WITH SEVERAL PROGGED TO GRAZE EAST KENTUCKY
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. GIVEN THE DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG THE
MODELS A GENERAL BLEND WAS FAVORED ALONG WITH A HEALTHY EMBEDDED
DIURNAL CYCLE WITH POPS PEAKING LATE EACH AFTERNOON.

SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE EXTENDED WILL SEE THE WARMTH BUILD FOR
THE AREA IN ADDITION TO THE ONGOING HUMID CONDITIONS. SOME OF THE
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL START THE EXTENDED AS A
WAVY FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WHEN A SFC
WAVE MOVES THROUGH. THE NEXT SFC WAVE LOOKS TO PASS JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH ITS BEST PCPN CHANCES KEPT IN OHIO. IN
THE WAKE OF THIS...THOUGH...THE FRONT WILL LIKELY SAG BACK SOUTH
WHERE ITS ABILITY TO TRIGGER CONVECTION WILL COMPETE WITH BUILDING
HEIGHTS ALOFT. FOR FRIDAY...THE BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH IN THE
MODELS BUT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST NORTHEAST OF KENTUCKY. THIS WILL
PROBABLY CONTRIBUTE TO THE RING OF FIRE EFFECT...AROUND THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH...ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO REMAIN A
CONCERN FOR OUR NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WHILE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE FRONT COULD BE SINKING BACK
SOUTHWEST WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS A THREAT. THE ECMWF
THEN HAS THIS BOUNDARY SETTLING OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION ANTICIPATED. WHILE
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THE PATTERN LOOKS
MORE FAVORABLE FOR A BREAK IN THE EXCESSIVE RAIN EVENTS OF THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH AT THE PRICE OF STEAMIER CONDITIONS
WITH MID AND UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS IN MOST PLACES.

THE CR GRID BLEND CAME IN REASONABLY WELL WITH THE BULK OF ANY
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE POPS AND SKY TO ACCOUNT FOR A GOOD DIURNAL
CYCLE WITH THESE GRIDS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DID TWEAK THE LOWS
A BIT EACH NIGHT TO REPRESENT SOME MINOR TERRAIN EFFECTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS TAF SITES
CURRENTLY...WITH A DROP TO NEAR IFR OR BELOW AT SME AND LOZ BY 09Z
LIKELY. THE REMAINING SITES SHOULD STAY AT MVFR FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR BY 13Z. THE FIRST SHOWERS AND
STORMS OF THE DAY WILL LIKELY BEGIN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AROUND
18Z SO HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT SYM WHERE THERE ARE HIGHER CHANCES
FOR POPS...WITH VCSH ELSEWHERE. ASSUMING THE TAF SITES SEE SOME
RAIN TOMORROW...HAVE INTRODUCED BR NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHER GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JVM





000
FXUS63 KJKL 070557
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
157 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1220 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO FRESHEN UP THE GRIDS AND ALIGN T/TD GRIDS WITH
RECENT OBS. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 935 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

A NEW SET OF ZONES WAS JUST SENT OUT. THE FORECAST GRIDS AND
FORECAST UPDATE WITH BOTH REFLECT THE REMOVAL OF PRECIPITATION
FROM THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE LATEST MODEL DATA STILL DOES NOT
SUPPORT PRECIP FORMING OVERNIGHT AND THERE IS NOTHING DEVELOPING
ANYWHERE DOWNSTREAM THAT WOULD MAKE IT INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
OVERNIGHT EITHER. ANY STALE WORDING IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TEXT
PRODUCE WAS ALSO REMOVED. A NEW HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL
ALSO BE ISSUED MOMENTARILY THAT MENTIONS ONLY PATCHY DENSE FOG FOR
LATER TONIGHT AND TO CORRECT A TYPO.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

JUST FINISHED INGESTING THE LATEST OBS DATA INTO THE FORECAST
GRIDS TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
REQUIRED AT THIS TIME. TOWARD THE END OF THE SHIFT WILL BE
CONSIDERING REMOVING PRECIPITATION FROM THE TONIGHT PERIOD OF THE
FORECAST...AS THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS SIMPLY DO NOT SUPPORT
IT DUE TO LACK OF ANY TRIGGERING MECHANISM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEPART TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE
IS BUILDING TOWARD THE REGION IN BETWEEN THIS DEPARTING SYSTEM AND
A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES AND APPROACHING THE GREAT
LAKES AND MS VALLEY. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW SHOWERS ON THE OUTER
EDGE OF THE DEPARTING LOW...AND OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...BUT
OVERALL MUCH LESS COVERAGE COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY WORK EAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE AXIS OF THIS RIDGE
MOVING EAST BY DAWN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO
BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION WITH THE CORRESPONDING COLD FRONT
ALSO ENTERING THE OH VALLEY REGION. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE A FOCUS
FOR CONVECTION MAINLY FROM TUE AFTERNOON INTO TUE EVENING AS
DAYTIME HEATING AND A MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE BEST DYNAMICS AND SHEAR HOWEVER SHOULD
RESIDE GENERALLY NORTH OF THE REGION...BUT WEAK SHORTWAVES IN SW
FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A THREAT FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE GREATEST ON TUE AFTERNOON AND TUE
EVENING. THE BEST COMBINATION OF THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD
BE ACROSS THE NW PART OF THE CWA...OR IN THE SPC MARGINAL CONVECTIVE
RISK FOR DAY 2. A COUPLE OF STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WINDS
GUSTS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RECENT WET PERIOD...THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE FRONT TO STALL OR SLOW DOWN AND GENERALLY BE ALIGNED PARALLEL
TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND STORMS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE ALL THAT
SWIFTLY...FLASH FLOODING COULD AGAIN BECOME A CONCERN BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD OR INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD. PW IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE SUSTAINED INORDINATELY HIGH...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OR
REPEATED ROUNDS APPEARS TO BE THERE.

AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING...THE
DRIEST PART OF THE PERIOD WILL BE TONIGHT. MOST CONVECTION SHOULD
HOLD OFF UNTIL THE DAYTIME PERIOD LATE TONIGHT...BUT STRAY
CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE WARM SECTOR TOWARD DAWN.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...VALLEY FOG...DENSE IS EXPECTED WITH THE
WET GROUND IN PLACE FORM RECENT RAINFALL. THE HIGHEST POPS WERE
USED IN THE NORTH...LIKELY WITH SCATTERED POPS IN THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN AS WE MOVE INTO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BREAKS DOWN AND LEADS TO
FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY INITIALLY...WHILE
TROUGH BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THROUGH THE PERIOD SUB
TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS SENDING MEAN
FLOW NORTH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THEN THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS
TO SHIFT WEST AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AND WE GET BACK INTO A
STORMIER NW FLOW.

OVERALL SURFACE FEATURES LEAD TO A BIT LESS AGREEMENT FROM THE
GUIDANCE SUITES. THIS IS DUE TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY AND THE INTERACTION WITH BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. MOST MODELS BESIDE THE OPERATIONAL
ECMWF KEEP THIS BOUNDARY NORTH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY GENERALLY
DRAPED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER REGION...WITH THE OUTLIER ECMWF
ALLOWING A BIT MORE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION. GIVEN THE BUILDING
RIDGE THIS MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION SEEMS TO BE LESS LIKELY BUT
WOULD TEND TO LEAN TOWARD A CONSENSUS BLEND APPROACH AT THIS
POINT. THIS WOULD LEAD TO BETTER CHANCES OF POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY...WHILE SLIGHT CHANCES WOULD
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. ONE THING TO
KEEP IN MIND IS OVERALL STEERING FLOW BECOMES QUIET WEAK ONCE THE
RIDGING BUILDS NORTH. THIS WILL LEAD TO POTENTIAL OF SLOW MOVING
STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS IS INDICATED WITH SOME
MODEL SOUNDING SUGGESTING PWATS NEAR THE 2.00 INCH MARK AND SLOWER
MEAN WINDS. WHILE TOWARD THE END OF THE LONG TERM THIS RIDGE
SHIFTS WEST ACROSS THE PLAINS LEADING TO BETTER CHANCES OF STORMS
IN THE EAST...WITH INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE LOW/FRONTS AND
MCS/S MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION.

GIVEN SUB TROPICAL/THERMAL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION EXPECT
OVERALL TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS IS ALSO BACKED UP BY THE 6 TO 10 DAY FORECAST FROM
THE CPC.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS TAF SITES
CURRENTLY...WITH A DROP TO NEAR IFR OR BELOW AT SME AND LOZ BY 09Z
LIKELY. THE REMAINING SITES SHOULD STAY AT MVFR FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR BY 13Z. THE FIRST SHOWERS AND
STORMS OF THE DAY WILL LIKELY BEGIN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AROUND
18Z SO HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT SYM WHERE THERE ARE HIGHER CHANCES
FOR POPS...WITH VCSH ELSEWHERE. ASSUMING THE TAF SITES SEE SOME
RAIN TOMORROW...HAVE INTRODUCED BR NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHER GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...JVM




000
FXUS63 KJKL 070557
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
157 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1220 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO FRESHEN UP THE GRIDS AND ALIGN T/TD GRIDS WITH
RECENT OBS. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 935 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

A NEW SET OF ZONES WAS JUST SENT OUT. THE FORECAST GRIDS AND
FORECAST UPDATE WITH BOTH REFLECT THE REMOVAL OF PRECIPITATION
FROM THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE LATEST MODEL DATA STILL DOES NOT
SUPPORT PRECIP FORMING OVERNIGHT AND THERE IS NOTHING DEVELOPING
ANYWHERE DOWNSTREAM THAT WOULD MAKE IT INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
OVERNIGHT EITHER. ANY STALE WORDING IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TEXT
PRODUCE WAS ALSO REMOVED. A NEW HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL
ALSO BE ISSUED MOMENTARILY THAT MENTIONS ONLY PATCHY DENSE FOG FOR
LATER TONIGHT AND TO CORRECT A TYPO.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

JUST FINISHED INGESTING THE LATEST OBS DATA INTO THE FORECAST
GRIDS TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
REQUIRED AT THIS TIME. TOWARD THE END OF THE SHIFT WILL BE
CONSIDERING REMOVING PRECIPITATION FROM THE TONIGHT PERIOD OF THE
FORECAST...AS THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS SIMPLY DO NOT SUPPORT
IT DUE TO LACK OF ANY TRIGGERING MECHANISM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEPART TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE
IS BUILDING TOWARD THE REGION IN BETWEEN THIS DEPARTING SYSTEM AND
A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES AND APPROACHING THE GREAT
LAKES AND MS VALLEY. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW SHOWERS ON THE OUTER
EDGE OF THE DEPARTING LOW...AND OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...BUT
OVERALL MUCH LESS COVERAGE COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY WORK EAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE AXIS OF THIS RIDGE
MOVING EAST BY DAWN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO
BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION WITH THE CORRESPONDING COLD FRONT
ALSO ENTERING THE OH VALLEY REGION. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE A FOCUS
FOR CONVECTION MAINLY FROM TUE AFTERNOON INTO TUE EVENING AS
DAYTIME HEATING AND A MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE BEST DYNAMICS AND SHEAR HOWEVER SHOULD
RESIDE GENERALLY NORTH OF THE REGION...BUT WEAK SHORTWAVES IN SW
FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A THREAT FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE GREATEST ON TUE AFTERNOON AND TUE
EVENING. THE BEST COMBINATION OF THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD
BE ACROSS THE NW PART OF THE CWA...OR IN THE SPC MARGINAL CONVECTIVE
RISK FOR DAY 2. A COUPLE OF STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WINDS
GUSTS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RECENT WET PERIOD...THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE FRONT TO STALL OR SLOW DOWN AND GENERALLY BE ALIGNED PARALLEL
TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND STORMS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE ALL THAT
SWIFTLY...FLASH FLOODING COULD AGAIN BECOME A CONCERN BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD OR INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD. PW IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE SUSTAINED INORDINATELY HIGH...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OR
REPEATED ROUNDS APPEARS TO BE THERE.

AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING...THE
DRIEST PART OF THE PERIOD WILL BE TONIGHT. MOST CONVECTION SHOULD
HOLD OFF UNTIL THE DAYTIME PERIOD LATE TONIGHT...BUT STRAY
CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE WARM SECTOR TOWARD DAWN.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...VALLEY FOG...DENSE IS EXPECTED WITH THE
WET GROUND IN PLACE FORM RECENT RAINFALL. THE HIGHEST POPS WERE
USED IN THE NORTH...LIKELY WITH SCATTERED POPS IN THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN AS WE MOVE INTO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BREAKS DOWN AND LEADS TO
FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY INITIALLY...WHILE
TROUGH BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THROUGH THE PERIOD SUB
TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS SENDING MEAN
FLOW NORTH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THEN THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS
TO SHIFT WEST AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AND WE GET BACK INTO A
STORMIER NW FLOW.

OVERALL SURFACE FEATURES LEAD TO A BIT LESS AGREEMENT FROM THE
GUIDANCE SUITES. THIS IS DUE TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY AND THE INTERACTION WITH BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. MOST MODELS BESIDE THE OPERATIONAL
ECMWF KEEP THIS BOUNDARY NORTH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY GENERALLY
DRAPED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER REGION...WITH THE OUTLIER ECMWF
ALLOWING A BIT MORE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION. GIVEN THE BUILDING
RIDGE THIS MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION SEEMS TO BE LESS LIKELY BUT
WOULD TEND TO LEAN TOWARD A CONSENSUS BLEND APPROACH AT THIS
POINT. THIS WOULD LEAD TO BETTER CHANCES OF POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY...WHILE SLIGHT CHANCES WOULD
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. ONE THING TO
KEEP IN MIND IS OVERALL STEERING FLOW BECOMES QUIET WEAK ONCE THE
RIDGING BUILDS NORTH. THIS WILL LEAD TO POTENTIAL OF SLOW MOVING
STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS IS INDICATED WITH SOME
MODEL SOUNDING SUGGESTING PWATS NEAR THE 2.00 INCH MARK AND SLOWER
MEAN WINDS. WHILE TOWARD THE END OF THE LONG TERM THIS RIDGE
SHIFTS WEST ACROSS THE PLAINS LEADING TO BETTER CHANCES OF STORMS
IN THE EAST...WITH INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE LOW/FRONTS AND
MCS/S MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION.

GIVEN SUB TROPICAL/THERMAL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION EXPECT
OVERALL TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS IS ALSO BACKED UP BY THE 6 TO 10 DAY FORECAST FROM
THE CPC.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS TAF SITES
CURRENTLY...WITH A DROP TO NEAR IFR OR BELOW AT SME AND LOZ BY 09Z
LIKELY. THE REMAINING SITES SHOULD STAY AT MVFR FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR BY 13Z. THE FIRST SHOWERS AND
STORMS OF THE DAY WILL LIKELY BEGIN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AROUND
18Z SO HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT SYM WHERE THERE ARE HIGHER CHANCES
FOR POPS...WITH VCSH ELSEWHERE. ASSUMING THE TAF SITES SEE SOME
RAIN TOMORROW...HAVE INTRODUCED BR NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHER GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...JVM





000
FXUS63 KJKL 070557
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
157 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1220 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO FRESHEN UP THE GRIDS AND ALIGN T/TD GRIDS WITH
RECENT OBS. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 935 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

A NEW SET OF ZONES WAS JUST SENT OUT. THE FORECAST GRIDS AND
FORECAST UPDATE WITH BOTH REFLECT THE REMOVAL OF PRECIPITATION
FROM THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE LATEST MODEL DATA STILL DOES NOT
SUPPORT PRECIP FORMING OVERNIGHT AND THERE IS NOTHING DEVELOPING
ANYWHERE DOWNSTREAM THAT WOULD MAKE IT INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
OVERNIGHT EITHER. ANY STALE WORDING IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TEXT
PRODUCE WAS ALSO REMOVED. A NEW HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL
ALSO BE ISSUED MOMENTARILY THAT MENTIONS ONLY PATCHY DENSE FOG FOR
LATER TONIGHT AND TO CORRECT A TYPO.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

JUST FINISHED INGESTING THE LATEST OBS DATA INTO THE FORECAST
GRIDS TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
REQUIRED AT THIS TIME. TOWARD THE END OF THE SHIFT WILL BE
CONSIDERING REMOVING PRECIPITATION FROM THE TONIGHT PERIOD OF THE
FORECAST...AS THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS SIMPLY DO NOT SUPPORT
IT DUE TO LACK OF ANY TRIGGERING MECHANISM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEPART TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE
IS BUILDING TOWARD THE REGION IN BETWEEN THIS DEPARTING SYSTEM AND
A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES AND APPROACHING THE GREAT
LAKES AND MS VALLEY. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW SHOWERS ON THE OUTER
EDGE OF THE DEPARTING LOW...AND OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...BUT
OVERALL MUCH LESS COVERAGE COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY WORK EAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE AXIS OF THIS RIDGE
MOVING EAST BY DAWN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO
BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION WITH THE CORRESPONDING COLD FRONT
ALSO ENTERING THE OH VALLEY REGION. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE A FOCUS
FOR CONVECTION MAINLY FROM TUE AFTERNOON INTO TUE EVENING AS
DAYTIME HEATING AND A MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE BEST DYNAMICS AND SHEAR HOWEVER SHOULD
RESIDE GENERALLY NORTH OF THE REGION...BUT WEAK SHORTWAVES IN SW
FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A THREAT FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE GREATEST ON TUE AFTERNOON AND TUE
EVENING. THE BEST COMBINATION OF THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD
BE ACROSS THE NW PART OF THE CWA...OR IN THE SPC MARGINAL CONVECTIVE
RISK FOR DAY 2. A COUPLE OF STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WINDS
GUSTS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RECENT WET PERIOD...THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE FRONT TO STALL OR SLOW DOWN AND GENERALLY BE ALIGNED PARALLEL
TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND STORMS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE ALL THAT
SWIFTLY...FLASH FLOODING COULD AGAIN BECOME A CONCERN BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD OR INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD. PW IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE SUSTAINED INORDINATELY HIGH...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OR
REPEATED ROUNDS APPEARS TO BE THERE.

AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING...THE
DRIEST PART OF THE PERIOD WILL BE TONIGHT. MOST CONVECTION SHOULD
HOLD OFF UNTIL THE DAYTIME PERIOD LATE TONIGHT...BUT STRAY
CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE WARM SECTOR TOWARD DAWN.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...VALLEY FOG...DENSE IS EXPECTED WITH THE
WET GROUND IN PLACE FORM RECENT RAINFALL. THE HIGHEST POPS WERE
USED IN THE NORTH...LIKELY WITH SCATTERED POPS IN THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN AS WE MOVE INTO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BREAKS DOWN AND LEADS TO
FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY INITIALLY...WHILE
TROUGH BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THROUGH THE PERIOD SUB
TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS SENDING MEAN
FLOW NORTH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THEN THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS
TO SHIFT WEST AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AND WE GET BACK INTO A
STORMIER NW FLOW.

OVERALL SURFACE FEATURES LEAD TO A BIT LESS AGREEMENT FROM THE
GUIDANCE SUITES. THIS IS DUE TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY AND THE INTERACTION WITH BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. MOST MODELS BESIDE THE OPERATIONAL
ECMWF KEEP THIS BOUNDARY NORTH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY GENERALLY
DRAPED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER REGION...WITH THE OUTLIER ECMWF
ALLOWING A BIT MORE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION. GIVEN THE BUILDING
RIDGE THIS MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION SEEMS TO BE LESS LIKELY BUT
WOULD TEND TO LEAN TOWARD A CONSENSUS BLEND APPROACH AT THIS
POINT. THIS WOULD LEAD TO BETTER CHANCES OF POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY...WHILE SLIGHT CHANCES WOULD
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. ONE THING TO
KEEP IN MIND IS OVERALL STEERING FLOW BECOMES QUIET WEAK ONCE THE
RIDGING BUILDS NORTH. THIS WILL LEAD TO POTENTIAL OF SLOW MOVING
STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS IS INDICATED WITH SOME
MODEL SOUNDING SUGGESTING PWATS NEAR THE 2.00 INCH MARK AND SLOWER
MEAN WINDS. WHILE TOWARD THE END OF THE LONG TERM THIS RIDGE
SHIFTS WEST ACROSS THE PLAINS LEADING TO BETTER CHANCES OF STORMS
IN THE EAST...WITH INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE LOW/FRONTS AND
MCS/S MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION.

GIVEN SUB TROPICAL/THERMAL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION EXPECT
OVERALL TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS IS ALSO BACKED UP BY THE 6 TO 10 DAY FORECAST FROM
THE CPC.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS TAF SITES
CURRENTLY...WITH A DROP TO NEAR IFR OR BELOW AT SME AND LOZ BY 09Z
LIKELY. THE REMAINING SITES SHOULD STAY AT MVFR FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR BY 13Z. THE FIRST SHOWERS AND
STORMS OF THE DAY WILL LIKELY BEGIN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AROUND
18Z SO HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT SYM WHERE THERE ARE HIGHER CHANCES
FOR POPS...WITH VCSH ELSEWHERE. ASSUMING THE TAF SITES SEE SOME
RAIN TOMORROW...HAVE INTRODUCED BR NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHER GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...JVM





000
FXUS63 KJKL 070557
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
157 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1220 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO FRESHEN UP THE GRIDS AND ALIGN T/TD GRIDS WITH
RECENT OBS. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 935 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

A NEW SET OF ZONES WAS JUST SENT OUT. THE FORECAST GRIDS AND
FORECAST UPDATE WITH BOTH REFLECT THE REMOVAL OF PRECIPITATION
FROM THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE LATEST MODEL DATA STILL DOES NOT
SUPPORT PRECIP FORMING OVERNIGHT AND THERE IS NOTHING DEVELOPING
ANYWHERE DOWNSTREAM THAT WOULD MAKE IT INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
OVERNIGHT EITHER. ANY STALE WORDING IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TEXT
PRODUCE WAS ALSO REMOVED. A NEW HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL
ALSO BE ISSUED MOMENTARILY THAT MENTIONS ONLY PATCHY DENSE FOG FOR
LATER TONIGHT AND TO CORRECT A TYPO.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

JUST FINISHED INGESTING THE LATEST OBS DATA INTO THE FORECAST
GRIDS TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
REQUIRED AT THIS TIME. TOWARD THE END OF THE SHIFT WILL BE
CONSIDERING REMOVING PRECIPITATION FROM THE TONIGHT PERIOD OF THE
FORECAST...AS THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS SIMPLY DO NOT SUPPORT
IT DUE TO LACK OF ANY TRIGGERING MECHANISM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEPART TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE
IS BUILDING TOWARD THE REGION IN BETWEEN THIS DEPARTING SYSTEM AND
A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES AND APPROACHING THE GREAT
LAKES AND MS VALLEY. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW SHOWERS ON THE OUTER
EDGE OF THE DEPARTING LOW...AND OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...BUT
OVERALL MUCH LESS COVERAGE COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY WORK EAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE AXIS OF THIS RIDGE
MOVING EAST BY DAWN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO
BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION WITH THE CORRESPONDING COLD FRONT
ALSO ENTERING THE OH VALLEY REGION. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE A FOCUS
FOR CONVECTION MAINLY FROM TUE AFTERNOON INTO TUE EVENING AS
DAYTIME HEATING AND A MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE BEST DYNAMICS AND SHEAR HOWEVER SHOULD
RESIDE GENERALLY NORTH OF THE REGION...BUT WEAK SHORTWAVES IN SW
FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A THREAT FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE GREATEST ON TUE AFTERNOON AND TUE
EVENING. THE BEST COMBINATION OF THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD
BE ACROSS THE NW PART OF THE CWA...OR IN THE SPC MARGINAL CONVECTIVE
RISK FOR DAY 2. A COUPLE OF STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WINDS
GUSTS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RECENT WET PERIOD...THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE FRONT TO STALL OR SLOW DOWN AND GENERALLY BE ALIGNED PARALLEL
TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND STORMS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE ALL THAT
SWIFTLY...FLASH FLOODING COULD AGAIN BECOME A CONCERN BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD OR INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD. PW IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE SUSTAINED INORDINATELY HIGH...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OR
REPEATED ROUNDS APPEARS TO BE THERE.

AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING...THE
DRIEST PART OF THE PERIOD WILL BE TONIGHT. MOST CONVECTION SHOULD
HOLD OFF UNTIL THE DAYTIME PERIOD LATE TONIGHT...BUT STRAY
CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE WARM SECTOR TOWARD DAWN.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...VALLEY FOG...DENSE IS EXPECTED WITH THE
WET GROUND IN PLACE FORM RECENT RAINFALL. THE HIGHEST POPS WERE
USED IN THE NORTH...LIKELY WITH SCATTERED POPS IN THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN AS WE MOVE INTO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BREAKS DOWN AND LEADS TO
FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY INITIALLY...WHILE
TROUGH BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THROUGH THE PERIOD SUB
TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS SENDING MEAN
FLOW NORTH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THEN THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS
TO SHIFT WEST AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AND WE GET BACK INTO A
STORMIER NW FLOW.

OVERALL SURFACE FEATURES LEAD TO A BIT LESS AGREEMENT FROM THE
GUIDANCE SUITES. THIS IS DUE TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY AND THE INTERACTION WITH BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. MOST MODELS BESIDE THE OPERATIONAL
ECMWF KEEP THIS BOUNDARY NORTH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY GENERALLY
DRAPED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER REGION...WITH THE OUTLIER ECMWF
ALLOWING A BIT MORE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION. GIVEN THE BUILDING
RIDGE THIS MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION SEEMS TO BE LESS LIKELY BUT
WOULD TEND TO LEAN TOWARD A CONSENSUS BLEND APPROACH AT THIS
POINT. THIS WOULD LEAD TO BETTER CHANCES OF POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY...WHILE SLIGHT CHANCES WOULD
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. ONE THING TO
KEEP IN MIND IS OVERALL STEERING FLOW BECOMES QUIET WEAK ONCE THE
RIDGING BUILDS NORTH. THIS WILL LEAD TO POTENTIAL OF SLOW MOVING
STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS IS INDICATED WITH SOME
MODEL SOUNDING SUGGESTING PWATS NEAR THE 2.00 INCH MARK AND SLOWER
MEAN WINDS. WHILE TOWARD THE END OF THE LONG TERM THIS RIDGE
SHIFTS WEST ACROSS THE PLAINS LEADING TO BETTER CHANCES OF STORMS
IN THE EAST...WITH INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE LOW/FRONTS AND
MCS/S MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION.

GIVEN SUB TROPICAL/THERMAL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION EXPECT
OVERALL TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS IS ALSO BACKED UP BY THE 6 TO 10 DAY FORECAST FROM
THE CPC.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS TAF SITES
CURRENTLY...WITH A DROP TO NEAR IFR OR BELOW AT SME AND LOZ BY 09Z
LIKELY. THE REMAINING SITES SHOULD STAY AT MVFR FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR BY 13Z. THE FIRST SHOWERS AND
STORMS OF THE DAY WILL LIKELY BEGIN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AROUND
18Z SO HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT SYM WHERE THERE ARE HIGHER CHANCES
FOR POPS...WITH VCSH ELSEWHERE. ASSUMING THE TAF SITES SEE SOME
RAIN TOMORROW...HAVE INTRODUCED BR NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHER GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...JVM




000
FXUS63 KJKL 070420
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1220 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1220 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO FRESHEN UP THE GRIDS AND ALIGN T/TD GRIDS WITH
RECENT OBS. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 935 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

A NEW SET OF ZONES WAS JUST SENT OUT. THE FORECAST GRIDS AND
FORECAST UPDATE WITH BOTH REFLECT THE REMOVAL OF PRECIPITATION
FROM THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE LATEST MODEL DATA STILL DOES NOT
SUPPORT PRECIP FORMING OVERNIGHT AND THERE IS NOTHING DEVELOPING
ANYWHERE DOWNSTREAM THAT WOULD MAKE IT INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
OVERNIGHT EITHER. ANY STALE WORDING IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TEXT
PRODUCE WAS ALSO REMOVED. A NEW HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL
ALSO BE ISSUED MOMENTARILY THAT MENTIONS ONLY PATCHY DENSE FOG FOR
LATER TONIGHT AND TO CORRECT A TYPO.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

JUST FINISHED INGESTING THE LATEST OBS DATA INTO THE FORECAST
GRIDS TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
REQUIRED AT THIS TIME. TOWARD THE END OF THE SHIFT WILL BE
CONSIDERING REMOVING PRECIPITATION FROM THE TONIGHT PERIOD OF THE
FORECAST...AS THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS SIMPLY DO NOT SUPPORT
IT DUE TO LACK OF ANY TRIGGERING MECHANISM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEPART TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE
IS BUILDING TOWARD THE REGION IN BETWEEN THIS DEPARTING SYSTEM AND
A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES AND APPROACHING THE GREAT
LAKES AND MS VALLEY. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW SHOWERS ON THE OUTER
EDGE OF THE DEPARTING LOW...AND OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...BUT
OVERALL MUCH LESS COVERAGE COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY WORK EAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE AXIS OF THIS RIDGE
MOVING EAST BY DAWN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO
BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION WITH THE CORRESPONDING COLD FRONT
ALSO ENTERING THE OH VALLEY REGION. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE A FOCUS
FOR CONVECTION MAINLY FROM TUE AFTERNOON INTO TUE EVENING AS
DAYTIME HEATING AND A MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE BEST DYNAMICS AND SHEAR HOWEVER SHOULD
RESIDE GENERALLY NORTH OF THE REGION...BUT WEAK SHORTWAVES IN SW
FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A THREAT FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE GREATEST ON TUE AFTERNOON AND TUE
EVENING. THE BEST COMBINATION OF THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD
BE ACROSS THE NW PART OF THE CWA...OR IN THE SPC MARGINAL CONVECTIVE
RISK FOR DAY 2. A COUPLE OF STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WINDS
GUSTS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RECENT WET PERIOD...THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE FRONT TO STALL OR SLOW DOWN AND GENERALLY BE ALIGNED PARALLEL
TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND STORMS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE ALL THAT
SWIFTLY...FLASH FLOODING COULD AGAIN BECOME A CONCERN BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD OR INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD. PW IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE SUSTAINED INORDINATELY HIGH...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OR
REPEATED ROUNDS APPEARS TO BE THERE.

AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING...THE
DRIEST PART OF THE PERIOD WILL BE TONIGHT. MOST CONVECTION SHOULD
HOLD OFF UNTIL THE DAYTIME PERIOD LATE TONIGHT...BUT STRAY
CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE WARM SECTOR TOWARD DAWN.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...VALLEY FOG...DENSE IS EXPECTED WITH THE
WET GROUND IN PLACE FORM RECENT RAINFALL. THE HIGHEST POPS WERE
USED IN THE NORTH...LIKELY WITH SCATTERED POPS IN THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN AS WE MOVE INTO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BREAKS DOWN AND LEADS TO
FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY INITIALLY...WHILE
TROUGH BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THROUGH THE PERIOD SUB
TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS SENDING MEAN
FLOW NORTH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THEN THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS
TO SHIFT WEST AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AND WE GET BACK INTO A
STORMIER NW FLOW.

OVERALL SURFACE FEATURES LEAD TO A BIT LESS AGREEMENT FROM THE
GUIDANCE SUITES. THIS IS DUE TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY AND THE INTERACTION WITH BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. MOST MODELS BESIDE THE OPERATIONAL
ECMWF KEEP THIS BOUNDARY NORTH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY GENERALLY
DRAPED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER REGION...WITH THE OUTLIER ECMWF
ALLOWING A BIT MORE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION. GIVEN THE BUILDING
RIDGE THIS MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION SEEMS TO BE LESS LIKELY BUT
WOULD TEND TO LEAN TOWARD A CONSENSUS BLEND APPROACH AT THIS
POINT. THIS WOULD LEAD TO BETTER CHANCES OF POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY...WHILE SLIGHT CHANCES WOULD
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. ONE THING TO
KEEP IN MIND IS OVERALL STEERING FLOW BECOMES QUIET WEAK ONCE THE
RIDGING BUILDS NORTH. THIS WILL LEAD TO POTENTIAL OF SLOW MOVING
STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS IS INDICATED WITH SOME
MODEL SOUNDING SUGGESTING PWATS NEAR THE 2.00 INCH MARK AND SLOWER
MEAN WINDS. WHILE TOWARD THE END OF THE LONG TERM THIS RIDGE
SHIFTS WEST ACROSS THE PLAINS LEADING TO BETTER CHANCES OF STORMS
IN THE EAST...WITH INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE LOW/FRONTS AND
MCS/S MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION.

GIVEN SUB TROPICAL/THERMAL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION EXPECT
OVERALL TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS IS ALSO BACKED UP BY THE 6 TO 10 DAY FORECAST FROM
THE CPC.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND 9Z
TONIGHT. WILL LIKELY SEE FOG IN OUR VALLEY LOCATIONS
OVERNIGHT...AND AT THE TAF SITES AS WELL. DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF
RAIN THAT HAS FALLEN AT SME AND LOZ OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...COULD SEE PERIODS OF IFR OR PERHAPS LIFR CONDITIONS AT
THOSE TWO AIRPORTS. SJS...JKL...AND SYM...HAVING RECEIVED MUCH
LESS RAINFALL RECENTLY THAN LOZ AND SME...SHOULD ONLY EXPERIENCE
MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG OVERNIGHT. THE FIRST SHOWERS AND STORMS
OF THE DAY THAT MAY MOVE WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE TAF SITES ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AROUND 16Z TUESDAY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...AR




000
FXUS63 KJKL 070135
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
935 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

A NEW SET OF ZONES WAS JUST SENT OUT. THE FORECAST GRIDS AND
FORECAST UPDATE WITH BOTH REFLECT THE REMOVAL OF PRECIPITATION
FROM THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE LATEST MODEL DATA STILL DOES NOT
SUPPORT PRECIP FORMING OVERNIGHT AND THERE IS NOTHING DEVELOPING
ANYWHERE DOWNSTREAM THAT WOULD MAKE IT INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
OVERNIGHT EITHER. ANY STALE WORDING IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TEXT
PRODUCE WAS ALSO REMOVED. A NEW HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL
ALSO BE ISSUED MOMENTARILY THAT MENTIONS ONLY PATCHY DENSE FOG FOR
LATER TONIGHT AND TO CORRECT A TYPO.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

JUST FINISHED INGESTING THE LATEST OBS DATA INTO THE FORECAST
GRIDS TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
REQUIRED AT THIS TIME. TOWARD THE END OF THE SHIFT WILL BE
CONSIDERING REMOVING PRECIPITATION FROM THE TONIGHT PERIOD OF THE
FORECAST...AS THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS SIMPLY DO NOT SUPPORT
IT DUE TO LACK OF ANY TRIGGERING MECHANISM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEPART TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE
IS BUILDING TOWARD THE REGION IN BETWEEN THIS DEPARTING SYSTEM AND
A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES AND APPROACHING THE GREAT
LAKES AND MS VALLEY. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW SHOWERS ON THE OUTER
EDGE OF THE DEPARTING LOW...AND OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...BUT
OVERALL MUCH LESS COVERAGE COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY WORK EAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE AXIS OF THIS RIDGE
MOVING EAST BY DAWN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO
BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION WITH THE CORRESPONDING COLD FRONT
ALSO ENTERING THE OH VALLEY REGION. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE A FOCUS
FOR CONVECTION MAINLY FROM TUE AFTERNOON INTO TUE EVENING AS
DAYTIME HEATING AND A MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE BEST DYNAMICS AND SHEAR HOWEVER SHOULD
RESIDE GENERALLY NORTH OF THE REGION...BUT WEAK SHORTWAVES IN SW
FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A THREAT FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE GREATEST ON TUE AFTERNOON AND TUE
EVENING. THE BEST COMBINATION OF THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD
BE ACROSS THE NW PART OF THE CWA...OR IN THE SPC MARGINAL CONVECTIVE
RISK FOR DAY 2. A COUPLE OF STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WINDS
GUSTS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RECENT WET PERIOD...THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE FRONT TO STALL OR SLOW DOWN AND GENERALLY BE ALIGNED PARALLEL
TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND STORMS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE ALL THAT
SWIFTLY...FLASH FLOODING COULD AGAIN BECOME A CONCERN BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD OR INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD. PW IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE SUSTAINED INORDINATELY HIGH...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OR
REPEATED ROUNDS APPEARS TO BE THERE.

AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING...THE
DRIEST PART OF THE PERIOD WILL BE TONIGHT. MOST CONVECTION SHOULD
HOLD OFF UNTIL THE DAYTIME PERIOD LATE TONIGHT...BUT STRAY
CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE WARM SECTOR TOWARD DAWN.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...VALLEY FOG...DENSE IS EXPECTED WITH THE
WET GROUND IN PLACE FORM RECENT RAINFALL. THE HIGHEST POPS WERE
USED IN THE NORTH...LIKELY WITH SCATTERED POPS IN THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN AS WE MOVE INTO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BREAKS DOWN AND LEADS TO
FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY INITIALLY...WHILE
TROUGH BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THROUGH THE PERIOD SUB
TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS SENDING MEAN
FLOW NORTH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THEN THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS
TO SHIFT WEST AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AND WE GET BACK INTO A
STORMIER NW FLOW.

OVERALL SURFACE FEATURES LEAD TO A BIT LESS AGREEMENT FROM THE
GUIDANCE SUITES. THIS IS DUE TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY AND THE INTERACTION WITH BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. MOST MODELS BESIDE THE OPERATIONAL
ECMWF KEEP THIS BOUNDARY NORTH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY GENERALLY
DRAPED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER REGION...WITH THE OUTLIER ECMWF
ALLOWING A BIT MORE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION. GIVEN THE BUILDING
RIDGE THIS MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION SEEMS TO BE LESS LIKELY BUT
WOULD TEND TO LEAN TOWARD A CONSENSUS BLEND APPROACH AT THIS
POINT. THIS WOULD LEAD TO BETTER CHANCES OF POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY...WHILE SLIGHT CHANCES WOULD
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. ONE THING TO
KEEP IN MIND IS OVERALL STEERING FLOW BECOMES QUIET WEAK ONCE THE
RIDGING BUILDS NORTH. THIS WILL LEAD TO POTENTIAL OF SLOW MOVING
STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS IS INDICATED WITH SOME
MODEL SOUNDING SUGGESTING PWATS NEAR THE 2.00 INCH MARK AND SLOWER
MEAN WINDS. WHILE TOWARD THE END OF THE LONG TERM THIS RIDGE
SHIFTS WEST ACROSS THE PLAINS LEADING TO BETTER CHANCES OF STORMS
IN THE EAST...WITH INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE LOW/FRONTS AND
MCS/S MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION.

GIVEN SUB TROPICAL/THERMAL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION EXPECT
OVERALL TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS IS ALSO BACKED UP BY THE 6 TO 10 DAY FORECAST FROM
THE CPC.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND 9Z
TONIGHT. WILL LIKELY SEE FOG IN OUR VALLEY LOCATIONS
OVERNIGHT...AND AT THE TAF SITES AS WELL. DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF
RAIN THAT HAS FALLEN AT SME AND LOZ OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...COULD SEE PERIODS OF IFR OR PERHAPS LIFR CONDITIONS AT
THOSE TWO AIRPORTS. SJS...JKL...AND SYM...HAVING RECEIVED MUCH
LESS RAINFALL RECENTLY THAN LOZ AND SME...SHOULD ONLY EXPERIENCE
MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG OVERNIGHT. THE FIRST SHOWERS AND STORMS
OF THE DAY THAT MAY MOVE WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE TAF SITES ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AROUND 16Z TUESDAY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...AR




000
FXUS63 KJKL 070135
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
935 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

A NEW SET OF ZONES WAS JUST SENT OUT. THE FORECAST GRIDS AND
FORECAST UPDATE WITH BOTH REFLECT THE REMOVAL OF PRECIPITATION
FROM THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE LATEST MODEL DATA STILL DOES NOT
SUPPORT PRECIP FORMING OVERNIGHT AND THERE IS NOTHING DEVELOPING
ANYWHERE DOWNSTREAM THAT WOULD MAKE IT INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
OVERNIGHT EITHER. ANY STALE WORDING IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TEXT
PRODUCE WAS ALSO REMOVED. A NEW HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL
ALSO BE ISSUED MOMENTARILY THAT MENTIONS ONLY PATCHY DENSE FOG FOR
LATER TONIGHT AND TO CORRECT A TYPO.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

JUST FINISHED INGESTING THE LATEST OBS DATA INTO THE FORECAST
GRIDS TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
REQUIRED AT THIS TIME. TOWARD THE END OF THE SHIFT WILL BE
CONSIDERING REMOVING PRECIPITATION FROM THE TONIGHT PERIOD OF THE
FORECAST...AS THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS SIMPLY DO NOT SUPPORT
IT DUE TO LACK OF ANY TRIGGERING MECHANISM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEPART TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE
IS BUILDING TOWARD THE REGION IN BETWEEN THIS DEPARTING SYSTEM AND
A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES AND APPROACHING THE GREAT
LAKES AND MS VALLEY. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW SHOWERS ON THE OUTER
EDGE OF THE DEPARTING LOW...AND OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...BUT
OVERALL MUCH LESS COVERAGE COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY WORK EAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE AXIS OF THIS RIDGE
MOVING EAST BY DAWN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO
BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION WITH THE CORRESPONDING COLD FRONT
ALSO ENTERING THE OH VALLEY REGION. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE A FOCUS
FOR CONVECTION MAINLY FROM TUE AFTERNOON INTO TUE EVENING AS
DAYTIME HEATING AND A MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE BEST DYNAMICS AND SHEAR HOWEVER SHOULD
RESIDE GENERALLY NORTH OF THE REGION...BUT WEAK SHORTWAVES IN SW
FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A THREAT FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE GREATEST ON TUE AFTERNOON AND TUE
EVENING. THE BEST COMBINATION OF THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD
BE ACROSS THE NW PART OF THE CWA...OR IN THE SPC MARGINAL CONVECTIVE
RISK FOR DAY 2. A COUPLE OF STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WINDS
GUSTS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RECENT WET PERIOD...THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE FRONT TO STALL OR SLOW DOWN AND GENERALLY BE ALIGNED PARALLEL
TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND STORMS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE ALL THAT
SWIFTLY...FLASH FLOODING COULD AGAIN BECOME A CONCERN BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD OR INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD. PW IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE SUSTAINED INORDINATELY HIGH...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OR
REPEATED ROUNDS APPEARS TO BE THERE.

AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING...THE
DRIEST PART OF THE PERIOD WILL BE TONIGHT. MOST CONVECTION SHOULD
HOLD OFF UNTIL THE DAYTIME PERIOD LATE TONIGHT...BUT STRAY
CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE WARM SECTOR TOWARD DAWN.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...VALLEY FOG...DENSE IS EXPECTED WITH THE
WET GROUND IN PLACE FORM RECENT RAINFALL. THE HIGHEST POPS WERE
USED IN THE NORTH...LIKELY WITH SCATTERED POPS IN THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN AS WE MOVE INTO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BREAKS DOWN AND LEADS TO
FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY INITIALLY...WHILE
TROUGH BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THROUGH THE PERIOD SUB
TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS SENDING MEAN
FLOW NORTH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THEN THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS
TO SHIFT WEST AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AND WE GET BACK INTO A
STORMIER NW FLOW.

OVERALL SURFACE FEATURES LEAD TO A BIT LESS AGREEMENT FROM THE
GUIDANCE SUITES. THIS IS DUE TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY AND THE INTERACTION WITH BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. MOST MODELS BESIDE THE OPERATIONAL
ECMWF KEEP THIS BOUNDARY NORTH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY GENERALLY
DRAPED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER REGION...WITH THE OUTLIER ECMWF
ALLOWING A BIT MORE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION. GIVEN THE BUILDING
RIDGE THIS MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION SEEMS TO BE LESS LIKELY BUT
WOULD TEND TO LEAN TOWARD A CONSENSUS BLEND APPROACH AT THIS
POINT. THIS WOULD LEAD TO BETTER CHANCES OF POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY...WHILE SLIGHT CHANCES WOULD
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. ONE THING TO
KEEP IN MIND IS OVERALL STEERING FLOW BECOMES QUIET WEAK ONCE THE
RIDGING BUILDS NORTH. THIS WILL LEAD TO POTENTIAL OF SLOW MOVING
STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS IS INDICATED WITH SOME
MODEL SOUNDING SUGGESTING PWATS NEAR THE 2.00 INCH MARK AND SLOWER
MEAN WINDS. WHILE TOWARD THE END OF THE LONG TERM THIS RIDGE
SHIFTS WEST ACROSS THE PLAINS LEADING TO BETTER CHANCES OF STORMS
IN THE EAST...WITH INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE LOW/FRONTS AND
MCS/S MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION.

GIVEN SUB TROPICAL/THERMAL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION EXPECT
OVERALL TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS IS ALSO BACKED UP BY THE 6 TO 10 DAY FORECAST FROM
THE CPC.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND 9Z
TONIGHT. WILL LIKELY SEE FOG IN OUR VALLEY LOCATIONS
OVERNIGHT...AND AT THE TAF SITES AS WELL. DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF
RAIN THAT HAS FALLEN AT SME AND LOZ OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...COULD SEE PERIODS OF IFR OR PERHAPS LIFR CONDITIONS AT
THOSE TWO AIRPORTS. SJS...JKL...AND SYM...HAVING RECEIVED MUCH
LESS RAINFALL RECENTLY THAN LOZ AND SME...SHOULD ONLY EXPERIENCE
MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG OVERNIGHT. THE FIRST SHOWERS AND STORMS
OF THE DAY THAT MAY MOVE WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE TAF SITES ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AROUND 16Z TUESDAY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...AR





000
FXUS63 KJKL 062355
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
755 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

JUST FINISHED INGESTING THE LATEST OBS DATA INTO THE FORECAST
GRIDS TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
REQUIRED AT THIS TIME. TOWARD THE END OF THE SHIFT WILL BE
CONSIDERING REMOVING PRECIPITATION FROM THE TONIGHT PERIOD OF THE
FORECAST...AS THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS SIMPLY DO NOT SUPPORT
IT DUE TO LACK OF ANY TRIGGERING MECHANISM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEPART TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE
IS BUILDING TOWARD THE REGION IN BETWEEN THIS DEPARTING SYSTEM AND
A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES AND APPROACHING THE GREAT
LAKES AND MS VALLEY. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW SHOWERS ON THE OUTER
EDGE OF THE DEPARTING LOW...AND OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...BUT
OVERALL MUCH LESS COVERAGE COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY WORK EAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE AXIS OF THIS RIDGE
MOVING EAST BY DAWN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO
BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION WITH THE CORRESPONDING COLD FRONT
ALSO ENTERING THE OH VALLEY REGION. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE A FOCUS
FOR CONVECTION MAINLY FROM TUE AFTERNOON INTO TUE EVENING AS
DAYTIME HEATING AND A MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE BEST DYNAMICS AND SHEAR HOWEVER SHOULD
RESIDE GENERALLY NORTH OF THE REGION...BUT WEAK SHORTWAVES IN SW
FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A THREAT FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE GREATEST ON TUE AFTERNOON AND TUE
EVENING. THE BEST COMBINATION OF THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD
BE ACROSS THE NW PART OF THE CWA...OR IN THE SPC MARGINAL CONVECTIVE
RISK FOR DAY 2. A COUPLE OF STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WINDS
GUSTS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RECENT WET PERIOD...THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE FRONT TO STALL OR SLOW DOWN AND GENERALLY BE ALIGNED PARALLEL
TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND STORMS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE ALL THAT
SWIFTLY...FLASH FLOODING COULD AGAIN BECOME A CONCERN BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD OR INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD. PW IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE SUSTAINED INORDINATELY HIGH...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OR
REPEATED ROUNDS APPEARS TO BE THERE.

AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING...THE
DRIEST PART OF THE PERIOD WILL BE TONIGHT. MOST CONVECTION SHOULD
HOLD OFF UNTIL THE DAYTIME PERIOD LATE TONIGHT...BUT STRAY
CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE WARM SECTOR TOWARD DAWN.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...VALLEY FOG...DENSE IS EXPECTED WITH THE
WET GROUND IN PLACE FORM RECENT RAINFALL. THE HIGHEST POPS WERE
USED IN THE NORTH...LIKELY WITH SCATTERED POPS IN THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN AS WE MOVE INTO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BREAKS DOWN AND LEADS TO
FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY INITIALLY...WHILE
TROUGH BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THROUGH THE PERIOD SUB
TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS SENDING MEAN
FLOW NORTH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THEN THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS
TO SHIFT WEST AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AND WE GET BACK INTO A
STORMIER NW FLOW.

OVERALL SURFACE FEATURES LEAD TO A BIT LESS AGREEMENT FROM THE
GUIDANCE SUITES. THIS IS DUE TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY AND THE INTERACTION WITH BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. MOST MODELS BESIDE THE OPERATIONAL
ECMWF KEEP THIS BOUNDARY NORTH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY GENERALLY
DRAPED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER REGION...WITH THE OUTLIER ECMWF
ALLOWING A BIT MORE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION. GIVEN THE BUILDING
RIDGE THIS MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION SEEMS TO BE LESS LIKELY BUT
WOULD TEND TO LEAN TOWARD A CONSENSUS BLEND APPROACH AT THIS
POINT. THIS WOULD LEAD TO BETTER CHANCES OF POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY...WHILE SLIGHT CHANCES WOULD
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. ONE THING TO
KEEP IN MIND IS OVERALL STEERING FLOW BECOMES QUIET WEAK ONCE THE
RIDGING BUILDS NORTH. THIS WILL LEAD TO POTENTIAL OF SLOW MOVING
STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS IS INDICATED WITH SOME
MODEL SOUNDING SUGGESTING PWATS NEAR THE 2.00 INCH MARK AND SLOWER
MEAN WINDS. WHILE TOWARD THE END OF THE LONG TERM THIS RIDGE
SHIFTS WEST ACROSS THE PLAINS LEADING TO BETTER CHANCES OF STORMS
IN THE EAST...WITH INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE LOW/FRONTS AND
MCS/S MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION.

GIVEN SUB TROPICAL/THERMAL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION EXPECT
OVERALL TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS IS ALSO BACKED UP BY THE 6 TO 10 DAY FORECAST FROM
THE CPC.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND 9Z
TONIGHT. WILL LIKELY SEE FOG IN OUR VALLEY LOCATIONS
OVERNIGHT...AND AT THE TAF SITES AS WELL. DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF
RAIN THAT HAS FALLEN AT SME AND LOZ OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...COULD SEE PERIODS OF IFR OR PERHAPS LIFR CONDITIONS AT
THOSE TWO AIRPORTS. SJS...JKL...AND SYM...HAVING RECEIVED MUCH
LESS RAINFALL RECENTLY THAN LOZ AND SME...SHOULD ONLY EXPERIENCE
MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG OVERNIGHT. THE FIRST SHOWERS AND STORMS
OF THE DAY THAT MAY MOVE WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE TAF SITES ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AROUND 16Z TUESDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...AR





000
FXUS63 KJKL 062355
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
755 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

JUST FINISHED INGESTING THE LATEST OBS DATA INTO THE FORECAST
GRIDS TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
REQUIRED AT THIS TIME. TOWARD THE END OF THE SHIFT WILL BE
CONSIDERING REMOVING PRECIPITATION FROM THE TONIGHT PERIOD OF THE
FORECAST...AS THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS SIMPLY DO NOT SUPPORT
IT DUE TO LACK OF ANY TRIGGERING MECHANISM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEPART TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE
IS BUILDING TOWARD THE REGION IN BETWEEN THIS DEPARTING SYSTEM AND
A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES AND APPROACHING THE GREAT
LAKES AND MS VALLEY. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW SHOWERS ON THE OUTER
EDGE OF THE DEPARTING LOW...AND OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...BUT
OVERALL MUCH LESS COVERAGE COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY WORK EAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE AXIS OF THIS RIDGE
MOVING EAST BY DAWN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO
BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION WITH THE CORRESPONDING COLD FRONT
ALSO ENTERING THE OH VALLEY REGION. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE A FOCUS
FOR CONVECTION MAINLY FROM TUE AFTERNOON INTO TUE EVENING AS
DAYTIME HEATING AND A MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE BEST DYNAMICS AND SHEAR HOWEVER SHOULD
RESIDE GENERALLY NORTH OF THE REGION...BUT WEAK SHORTWAVES IN SW
FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A THREAT FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE GREATEST ON TUE AFTERNOON AND TUE
EVENING. THE BEST COMBINATION OF THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD
BE ACROSS THE NW PART OF THE CWA...OR IN THE SPC MARGINAL CONVECTIVE
RISK FOR DAY 2. A COUPLE OF STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WINDS
GUSTS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RECENT WET PERIOD...THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE FRONT TO STALL OR SLOW DOWN AND GENERALLY BE ALIGNED PARALLEL
TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND STORMS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE ALL THAT
SWIFTLY...FLASH FLOODING COULD AGAIN BECOME A CONCERN BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD OR INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD. PW IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE SUSTAINED INORDINATELY HIGH...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OR
REPEATED ROUNDS APPEARS TO BE THERE.

AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING...THE
DRIEST PART OF THE PERIOD WILL BE TONIGHT. MOST CONVECTION SHOULD
HOLD OFF UNTIL THE DAYTIME PERIOD LATE TONIGHT...BUT STRAY
CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE WARM SECTOR TOWARD DAWN.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...VALLEY FOG...DENSE IS EXPECTED WITH THE
WET GROUND IN PLACE FORM RECENT RAINFALL. THE HIGHEST POPS WERE
USED IN THE NORTH...LIKELY WITH SCATTERED POPS IN THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN AS WE MOVE INTO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BREAKS DOWN AND LEADS TO
FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY INITIALLY...WHILE
TROUGH BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THROUGH THE PERIOD SUB
TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS SENDING MEAN
FLOW NORTH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THEN THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS
TO SHIFT WEST AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AND WE GET BACK INTO A
STORMIER NW FLOW.

OVERALL SURFACE FEATURES LEAD TO A BIT LESS AGREEMENT FROM THE
GUIDANCE SUITES. THIS IS DUE TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY AND THE INTERACTION WITH BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. MOST MODELS BESIDE THE OPERATIONAL
ECMWF KEEP THIS BOUNDARY NORTH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY GENERALLY
DRAPED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER REGION...WITH THE OUTLIER ECMWF
ALLOWING A BIT MORE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION. GIVEN THE BUILDING
RIDGE THIS MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION SEEMS TO BE LESS LIKELY BUT
WOULD TEND TO LEAN TOWARD A CONSENSUS BLEND APPROACH AT THIS
POINT. THIS WOULD LEAD TO BETTER CHANCES OF POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY...WHILE SLIGHT CHANCES WOULD
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. ONE THING TO
KEEP IN MIND IS OVERALL STEERING FLOW BECOMES QUIET WEAK ONCE THE
RIDGING BUILDS NORTH. THIS WILL LEAD TO POTENTIAL OF SLOW MOVING
STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS IS INDICATED WITH SOME
MODEL SOUNDING SUGGESTING PWATS NEAR THE 2.00 INCH MARK AND SLOWER
MEAN WINDS. WHILE TOWARD THE END OF THE LONG TERM THIS RIDGE
SHIFTS WEST ACROSS THE PLAINS LEADING TO BETTER CHANCES OF STORMS
IN THE EAST...WITH INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE LOW/FRONTS AND
MCS/S MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION.

GIVEN SUB TROPICAL/THERMAL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION EXPECT
OVERALL TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS IS ALSO BACKED UP BY THE 6 TO 10 DAY FORECAST FROM
THE CPC.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND 9Z
TONIGHT. WILL LIKELY SEE FOG IN OUR VALLEY LOCATIONS
OVERNIGHT...AND AT THE TAF SITES AS WELL. DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF
RAIN THAT HAS FALLEN AT SME AND LOZ OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...COULD SEE PERIODS OF IFR OR PERHAPS LIFR CONDITIONS AT
THOSE TWO AIRPORTS. SJS...JKL...AND SYM...HAVING RECEIVED MUCH
LESS RAINFALL RECENTLY THAN LOZ AND SME...SHOULD ONLY EXPERIENCE
MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG OVERNIGHT. THE FIRST SHOWERS AND STORMS
OF THE DAY THAT MAY MOVE WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE TAF SITES ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AROUND 16Z TUESDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...AR




000
FXUS63 KJKL 062355
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
755 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

JUST FINISHED INGESTING THE LATEST OBS DATA INTO THE FORECAST
GRIDS TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
REQUIRED AT THIS TIME. TOWARD THE END OF THE SHIFT WILL BE
CONSIDERING REMOVING PRECIPITATION FROM THE TONIGHT PERIOD OF THE
FORECAST...AS THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS SIMPLY DO NOT SUPPORT
IT DUE TO LACK OF ANY TRIGGERING MECHANISM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEPART TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE
IS BUILDING TOWARD THE REGION IN BETWEEN THIS DEPARTING SYSTEM AND
A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES AND APPROACHING THE GREAT
LAKES AND MS VALLEY. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW SHOWERS ON THE OUTER
EDGE OF THE DEPARTING LOW...AND OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...BUT
OVERALL MUCH LESS COVERAGE COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY WORK EAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE AXIS OF THIS RIDGE
MOVING EAST BY DAWN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO
BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION WITH THE CORRESPONDING COLD FRONT
ALSO ENTERING THE OH VALLEY REGION. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE A FOCUS
FOR CONVECTION MAINLY FROM TUE AFTERNOON INTO TUE EVENING AS
DAYTIME HEATING AND A MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE BEST DYNAMICS AND SHEAR HOWEVER SHOULD
RESIDE GENERALLY NORTH OF THE REGION...BUT WEAK SHORTWAVES IN SW
FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A THREAT FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE GREATEST ON TUE AFTERNOON AND TUE
EVENING. THE BEST COMBINATION OF THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD
BE ACROSS THE NW PART OF THE CWA...OR IN THE SPC MARGINAL CONVECTIVE
RISK FOR DAY 2. A COUPLE OF STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WINDS
GUSTS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RECENT WET PERIOD...THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE FRONT TO STALL OR SLOW DOWN AND GENERALLY BE ALIGNED PARALLEL
TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND STORMS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE ALL THAT
SWIFTLY...FLASH FLOODING COULD AGAIN BECOME A CONCERN BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD OR INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD. PW IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE SUSTAINED INORDINATELY HIGH...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OR
REPEATED ROUNDS APPEARS TO BE THERE.

AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING...THE
DRIEST PART OF THE PERIOD WILL BE TONIGHT. MOST CONVECTION SHOULD
HOLD OFF UNTIL THE DAYTIME PERIOD LATE TONIGHT...BUT STRAY
CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE WARM SECTOR TOWARD DAWN.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...VALLEY FOG...DENSE IS EXPECTED WITH THE
WET GROUND IN PLACE FORM RECENT RAINFALL. THE HIGHEST POPS WERE
USED IN THE NORTH...LIKELY WITH SCATTERED POPS IN THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN AS WE MOVE INTO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BREAKS DOWN AND LEADS TO
FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY INITIALLY...WHILE
TROUGH BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THROUGH THE PERIOD SUB
TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS SENDING MEAN
FLOW NORTH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THEN THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS
TO SHIFT WEST AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AND WE GET BACK INTO A
STORMIER NW FLOW.

OVERALL SURFACE FEATURES LEAD TO A BIT LESS AGREEMENT FROM THE
GUIDANCE SUITES. THIS IS DUE TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY AND THE INTERACTION WITH BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. MOST MODELS BESIDE THE OPERATIONAL
ECMWF KEEP THIS BOUNDARY NORTH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY GENERALLY
DRAPED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER REGION...WITH THE OUTLIER ECMWF
ALLOWING A BIT MORE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION. GIVEN THE BUILDING
RIDGE THIS MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION SEEMS TO BE LESS LIKELY BUT
WOULD TEND TO LEAN TOWARD A CONSENSUS BLEND APPROACH AT THIS
POINT. THIS WOULD LEAD TO BETTER CHANCES OF POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY...WHILE SLIGHT CHANCES WOULD
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. ONE THING TO
KEEP IN MIND IS OVERALL STEERING FLOW BECOMES QUIET WEAK ONCE THE
RIDGING BUILDS NORTH. THIS WILL LEAD TO POTENTIAL OF SLOW MOVING
STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS IS INDICATED WITH SOME
MODEL SOUNDING SUGGESTING PWATS NEAR THE 2.00 INCH MARK AND SLOWER
MEAN WINDS. WHILE TOWARD THE END OF THE LONG TERM THIS RIDGE
SHIFTS WEST ACROSS THE PLAINS LEADING TO BETTER CHANCES OF STORMS
IN THE EAST...WITH INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE LOW/FRONTS AND
MCS/S MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION.

GIVEN SUB TROPICAL/THERMAL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION EXPECT
OVERALL TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS IS ALSO BACKED UP BY THE 6 TO 10 DAY FORECAST FROM
THE CPC.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND 9Z
TONIGHT. WILL LIKELY SEE FOG IN OUR VALLEY LOCATIONS
OVERNIGHT...AND AT THE TAF SITES AS WELL. DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF
RAIN THAT HAS FALLEN AT SME AND LOZ OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...COULD SEE PERIODS OF IFR OR PERHAPS LIFR CONDITIONS AT
THOSE TWO AIRPORTS. SJS...JKL...AND SYM...HAVING RECEIVED MUCH
LESS RAINFALL RECENTLY THAN LOZ AND SME...SHOULD ONLY EXPERIENCE
MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG OVERNIGHT. THE FIRST SHOWERS AND STORMS
OF THE DAY THAT MAY MOVE WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE TAF SITES ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AROUND 16Z TUESDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...AR





000
FXUS63 KJKL 062355
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
755 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

JUST FINISHED INGESTING THE LATEST OBS DATA INTO THE FORECAST
GRIDS TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
REQUIRED AT THIS TIME. TOWARD THE END OF THE SHIFT WILL BE
CONSIDERING REMOVING PRECIPITATION FROM THE TONIGHT PERIOD OF THE
FORECAST...AS THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS SIMPLY DO NOT SUPPORT
IT DUE TO LACK OF ANY TRIGGERING MECHANISM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEPART TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE
IS BUILDING TOWARD THE REGION IN BETWEEN THIS DEPARTING SYSTEM AND
A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES AND APPROACHING THE GREAT
LAKES AND MS VALLEY. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW SHOWERS ON THE OUTER
EDGE OF THE DEPARTING LOW...AND OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...BUT
OVERALL MUCH LESS COVERAGE COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY WORK EAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE AXIS OF THIS RIDGE
MOVING EAST BY DAWN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO
BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION WITH THE CORRESPONDING COLD FRONT
ALSO ENTERING THE OH VALLEY REGION. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE A FOCUS
FOR CONVECTION MAINLY FROM TUE AFTERNOON INTO TUE EVENING AS
DAYTIME HEATING AND A MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE BEST DYNAMICS AND SHEAR HOWEVER SHOULD
RESIDE GENERALLY NORTH OF THE REGION...BUT WEAK SHORTWAVES IN SW
FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A THREAT FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE GREATEST ON TUE AFTERNOON AND TUE
EVENING. THE BEST COMBINATION OF THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD
BE ACROSS THE NW PART OF THE CWA...OR IN THE SPC MARGINAL CONVECTIVE
RISK FOR DAY 2. A COUPLE OF STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WINDS
GUSTS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RECENT WET PERIOD...THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE FRONT TO STALL OR SLOW DOWN AND GENERALLY BE ALIGNED PARALLEL
TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND STORMS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE ALL THAT
SWIFTLY...FLASH FLOODING COULD AGAIN BECOME A CONCERN BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD OR INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD. PW IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE SUSTAINED INORDINATELY HIGH...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OR
REPEATED ROUNDS APPEARS TO BE THERE.

AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING...THE
DRIEST PART OF THE PERIOD WILL BE TONIGHT. MOST CONVECTION SHOULD
HOLD OFF UNTIL THE DAYTIME PERIOD LATE TONIGHT...BUT STRAY
CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE WARM SECTOR TOWARD DAWN.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...VALLEY FOG...DENSE IS EXPECTED WITH THE
WET GROUND IN PLACE FORM RECENT RAINFALL. THE HIGHEST POPS WERE
USED IN THE NORTH...LIKELY WITH SCATTERED POPS IN THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN AS WE MOVE INTO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BREAKS DOWN AND LEADS TO
FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY INITIALLY...WHILE
TROUGH BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THROUGH THE PERIOD SUB
TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS SENDING MEAN
FLOW NORTH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THEN THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS
TO SHIFT WEST AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AND WE GET BACK INTO A
STORMIER NW FLOW.

OVERALL SURFACE FEATURES LEAD TO A BIT LESS AGREEMENT FROM THE
GUIDANCE SUITES. THIS IS DUE TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY AND THE INTERACTION WITH BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. MOST MODELS BESIDE THE OPERATIONAL
ECMWF KEEP THIS BOUNDARY NORTH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY GENERALLY
DRAPED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER REGION...WITH THE OUTLIER ECMWF
ALLOWING A BIT MORE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION. GIVEN THE BUILDING
RIDGE THIS MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION SEEMS TO BE LESS LIKELY BUT
WOULD TEND TO LEAN TOWARD A CONSENSUS BLEND APPROACH AT THIS
POINT. THIS WOULD LEAD TO BETTER CHANCES OF POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY...WHILE SLIGHT CHANCES WOULD
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. ONE THING TO
KEEP IN MIND IS OVERALL STEERING FLOW BECOMES QUIET WEAK ONCE THE
RIDGING BUILDS NORTH. THIS WILL LEAD TO POTENTIAL OF SLOW MOVING
STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS IS INDICATED WITH SOME
MODEL SOUNDING SUGGESTING PWATS NEAR THE 2.00 INCH MARK AND SLOWER
MEAN WINDS. WHILE TOWARD THE END OF THE LONG TERM THIS RIDGE
SHIFTS WEST ACROSS THE PLAINS LEADING TO BETTER CHANCES OF STORMS
IN THE EAST...WITH INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE LOW/FRONTS AND
MCS/S MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION.

GIVEN SUB TROPICAL/THERMAL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION EXPECT
OVERALL TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS IS ALSO BACKED UP BY THE 6 TO 10 DAY FORECAST FROM
THE CPC.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND 9Z
TONIGHT. WILL LIKELY SEE FOG IN OUR VALLEY LOCATIONS
OVERNIGHT...AND AT THE TAF SITES AS WELL. DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF
RAIN THAT HAS FALLEN AT SME AND LOZ OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...COULD SEE PERIODS OF IFR OR PERHAPS LIFR CONDITIONS AT
THOSE TWO AIRPORTS. SJS...JKL...AND SYM...HAVING RECEIVED MUCH
LESS RAINFALL RECENTLY THAN LOZ AND SME...SHOULD ONLY EXPERIENCE
MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG OVERNIGHT. THE FIRST SHOWERS AND STORMS
OF THE DAY THAT MAY MOVE WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE TAF SITES ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AROUND 16Z TUESDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...AR




000
FXUS63 KJKL 061959
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
359 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEPART TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE
IS BUILDING TOWARD THE REGION IN BETWEEN THIS DEPARTING SYSTEM AND
A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES AND APPROACHING THE GREAT
LAKES AND MS VALLEY. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW SHOWERS ON THE OUTER
EDGE OF THE DEPARTING LOW...AND OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...BUT
OVERALL MUCH LESS COVERAGE COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY WORK EAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE AXIS OF THIS RIDGE
MOVING EAST BY DAWN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO
BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION WITH THE CORRESPONDING COLD FRONT
ALSO ENTERING THE OH VALLEY REGION. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE A FOCUS
FOR CONVECTION MAINLY FROM TUE AFTERNOON INTO TUE EVENING AS
DAYTIME HEATING AND A MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE BEST DYNAMICS AND SHEAR HOWEVER SHOULD
RESIDE GENERALLY NORTH OF THE REGION...BUT WEAK SHORTWAVES IN SW
FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A THREAT FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE GREATEST ON TUE AFTERNOON AND TUE
EVENING. THE BEST COMBINATION OF THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD
BE ACROSS THE NW PART OF THE CWA...OR IN THE SPC MARGINAL CONVECTIVE
RISK FOR DAY 2. A COUPLE OF STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WINDS
GUSTS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RECENT WET PERIOD...THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE FRONT TO STALL OR SLOW DOWN AND GENERALLY BE ALIGNED PARALLEL
TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND STORMS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE ALL THAT
SWIFTLY...FLASH FLOODING COULD AGAIN BECOME A CONCERN BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD OR INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD. PW IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE SUSTAINED INORDINATELY HIGH...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OR
REPEATED ROUNDS APPEARS TO BE THERE.

AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING...THE
DRIEST PART OF THE PERIOD WILL BE TONIGHT. MOST CONVECTION SHOULD
HOLD OFF UNTIL THE DAYTIME PERIOD LATE TONIGHT...BUT STRAY
CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE WARM SECTOR TOWARD DAWN.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...VALLEY FOG...DENSE IS EXPECTED WITH THE
WET GROUND IN PLACE FORM RECENT RAINFALL. THE HIGHEST POPS WERE
USED IN THE NORTH...LIKELY WITH SCATTERED POPS IN THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN AS WE MOVE INTO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BREAKS DOWN AND LEADS TO
FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY INITIALLY...WHILE
TROUGH BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THROUGH THE PERIOD SUB
TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS SENDING MEAN
FLOW NORTH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THEN THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS
TO SHIFT WEST AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AND WE GET BACK INTO A
STORMIER NW FLOW.

OVERALL SURFACE FEATURES LEAD TO A BIT LESS AGREEMENT FROM THE
GUIDANCE SUITES. THIS IS DUE TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY AND THE INTERACTION WITH BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. MOST MODELS BESIDE THE OPERATIONAL
ECMWF KEEP THIS BOUNDARY NORTH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY GENERALLY
DRAPED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER REGION...WITH THE OUTLIER ECMWF
ALLOWING A BIT MORE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION. GIVEN THE BUILDING
RIDGE THIS MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION SEEMS TO BE LESS LIKELY BUT
WOULD TEND TO LEAN TOWARD A CONSENSUS BLEND APPROACH AT THIS
POINT. THIS WOULD LEAD TO BETTER CHANCES OF POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY...WHILE SLIGHT CHANCES WOULD
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. ONE THING TO
KEEP IN MIND IS OVERALL STEERING FLOW BECOMES QUIET WEAK ONCE THE
RIDGING BUILDS NORTH. THIS WILL LEAD TO POTENTIAL OF SLOW MOVING
STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS IS INDICATED WITH SOME
MODEL SOUNDING SUGGESTING PWATS NEAR THE 2.00 INCH MARK AND SLOWER
MEAN WINDS. WHILE TOWARD THE END OF THE LONG TERM THIS RIDGE
SHIFTS WEST ACROSS THE PLAINS LEADING TO BETTER CHANCES OF STORMS
IN THE EAST...WITH INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE LOW/FRONTS AND
MCS/S MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION.

GIVEN SUB TROPICAL/THERMAL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION EXPECT
OVERALL TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS IS ALSO BACKED UP BY THE 6 TO 10 DAY FORECAST FROM
THE CPC.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

A FEW SHRA OR EVEN A STRAY TSRA MAY DEVELOP DURING THE FIRST 6
HOURS OF THE PERIOD...MAINLY IN THE FAR EAST AS A MID AND UPPER
LEVEL LOW DEPARTS. OTHERWISE...OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION CIGS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR IN ALL AREAS THROUGH 20Z. A BRIEF AREA OF
RIDGING WILL DOMINATE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AND FOG...DENSE IN
SOME AREAS...WILL DEVELOP IN VALLEYS BY 8Z AND THEN LIFT AND
DISSIPATE THROUGH 14Z. THE TAF SITES SHOULD BE AFFECTED...LOZ AND
SME FIRST AND THEN SJS...SYM AND JKL AS THE FOG LIFTS. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KJKL 061959
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
359 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEPART TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE
IS BUILDING TOWARD THE REGION IN BETWEEN THIS DEPARTING SYSTEM AND
A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES AND APPROACHING THE GREAT
LAKES AND MS VALLEY. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW SHOWERS ON THE OUTER
EDGE OF THE DEPARTING LOW...AND OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...BUT
OVERALL MUCH LESS COVERAGE COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY WORK EAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE AXIS OF THIS RIDGE
MOVING EAST BY DAWN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO
BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION WITH THE CORRESPONDING COLD FRONT
ALSO ENTERING THE OH VALLEY REGION. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE A FOCUS
FOR CONVECTION MAINLY FROM TUE AFTERNOON INTO TUE EVENING AS
DAYTIME HEATING AND A MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE BEST DYNAMICS AND SHEAR HOWEVER SHOULD
RESIDE GENERALLY NORTH OF THE REGION...BUT WEAK SHORTWAVES IN SW
FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A THREAT FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE GREATEST ON TUE AFTERNOON AND TUE
EVENING. THE BEST COMBINATION OF THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD
BE ACROSS THE NW PART OF THE CWA...OR IN THE SPC MARGINAL CONVECTIVE
RISK FOR DAY 2. A COUPLE OF STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WINDS
GUSTS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RECENT WET PERIOD...THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE FRONT TO STALL OR SLOW DOWN AND GENERALLY BE ALIGNED PARALLEL
TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND STORMS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE ALL THAT
SWIFTLY...FLASH FLOODING COULD AGAIN BECOME A CONCERN BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD OR INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD. PW IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE SUSTAINED INORDINATELY HIGH...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OR
REPEATED ROUNDS APPEARS TO BE THERE.

AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING...THE
DRIEST PART OF THE PERIOD WILL BE TONIGHT. MOST CONVECTION SHOULD
HOLD OFF UNTIL THE DAYTIME PERIOD LATE TONIGHT...BUT STRAY
CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE WARM SECTOR TOWARD DAWN.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...VALLEY FOG...DENSE IS EXPECTED WITH THE
WET GROUND IN PLACE FORM RECENT RAINFALL. THE HIGHEST POPS WERE
USED IN THE NORTH...LIKELY WITH SCATTERED POPS IN THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN AS WE MOVE INTO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BREAKS DOWN AND LEADS TO
FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY INITIALLY...WHILE
TROUGH BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THROUGH THE PERIOD SUB
TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS SENDING MEAN
FLOW NORTH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THEN THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS
TO SHIFT WEST AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AND WE GET BACK INTO A
STORMIER NW FLOW.

OVERALL SURFACE FEATURES LEAD TO A BIT LESS AGREEMENT FROM THE
GUIDANCE SUITES. THIS IS DUE TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY AND THE INTERACTION WITH BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. MOST MODELS BESIDE THE OPERATIONAL
ECMWF KEEP THIS BOUNDARY NORTH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY GENERALLY
DRAPED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER REGION...WITH THE OUTLIER ECMWF
ALLOWING A BIT MORE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION. GIVEN THE BUILDING
RIDGE THIS MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION SEEMS TO BE LESS LIKELY BUT
WOULD TEND TO LEAN TOWARD A CONSENSUS BLEND APPROACH AT THIS
POINT. THIS WOULD LEAD TO BETTER CHANCES OF POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY...WHILE SLIGHT CHANCES WOULD
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. ONE THING TO
KEEP IN MIND IS OVERALL STEERING FLOW BECOMES QUIET WEAK ONCE THE
RIDGING BUILDS NORTH. THIS WILL LEAD TO POTENTIAL OF SLOW MOVING
STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS IS INDICATED WITH SOME
MODEL SOUNDING SUGGESTING PWATS NEAR THE 2.00 INCH MARK AND SLOWER
MEAN WINDS. WHILE TOWARD THE END OF THE LONG TERM THIS RIDGE
SHIFTS WEST ACROSS THE PLAINS LEADING TO BETTER CHANCES OF STORMS
IN THE EAST...WITH INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE LOW/FRONTS AND
MCS/S MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION.

GIVEN SUB TROPICAL/THERMAL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION EXPECT
OVERALL TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS IS ALSO BACKED UP BY THE 6 TO 10 DAY FORECAST FROM
THE CPC.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

A FEW SHRA OR EVEN A STRAY TSRA MAY DEVELOP DURING THE FIRST 6
HOURS OF THE PERIOD...MAINLY IN THE FAR EAST AS A MID AND UPPER
LEVEL LOW DEPARTS. OTHERWISE...OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION CIGS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR IN ALL AREAS THROUGH 20Z. A BRIEF AREA OF
RIDGING WILL DOMINATE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AND FOG...DENSE IN
SOME AREAS...WILL DEVELOP IN VALLEYS BY 8Z AND THEN LIFT AND
DISSIPATE THROUGH 14Z. THE TAF SITES SHOULD BE AFFECTED...LOZ AND
SME FIRST AND THEN SJS...SYM AND JKL AS THE FOG LIFTS. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...JP





000
FXUS63 KJKL 061810 AAD
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
210 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATION AND
SATELLITE TRENDS. THIS LED TO NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANCES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1110 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

A FEW SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA
AS THE MID LEVEL LOW GRADUALLY DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST. IN
BETWEEN THIS DEPARTING SYSTEM AND A TROUGH APPROACHING THE GREAT
LAKES AND MID MS VALLEY REGION...SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS BUILDING
TOWARD THE AREA. THIS SHOULD CONFINE ANY CONVECTION TODAY TO
EASTERN LOCATIONS...WITH A DAY TO DRY OUT FOR MOST.

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON OBSERVATION AND RADAR
TRENDS. THIS LED TO LOWERING MAX T A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA DUE TO THE INITIAL CLOUD COVER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

ADJUSTED POPS DOWN MAINLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES...BUT
DECIDED TO KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH RES MODELS PRODUCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS.
ALSO FRESHENED UP T/TD GRIDS TO ALIGN WITH MOST RECENT OBS.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

A FEW STUBBORN SHOWERS REMAIN IN EASTERN KENTUCKY AS OF 330 AM BUT
SHOULDN`T CAUSE ANY ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS THIS MORNING.
SO HAVE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH A BIT EARLY. WITH A
MOIST GROUND AND CLEARING SKIES...AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE SET IN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO 1/2 MI OR LESS IN
SPOTS. THIS IS THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM AND WILL INCLUDE
IT IN THE HWO.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY
ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT/CLEARING OF CONDITIONS AND SKY
COVER FROM SW TO NE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE MAY BE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST BUT OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE A
SHORT BREAK FROM THE RAIN UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION. TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW
WILL REACH THE MID 80S...RIGHT AT NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF
JULY. THIS IS THE FIRST TIME WE WILL SEE THE 85 DEGREE MARK IN
OVER A WEEK.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE PASSING NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL SEND
A SURFACE COLD FRONT IN OUR DIRECTION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.
IT WILL STALL NEARBY BEFORE HEADING BACK NORTH. MODELS SHOW
VARIATION CONCERNING HOW FAR SOUTH IT MAKES IT...AND THIS PLAYS A
ROLE IN THE POP. HAVE USED A POP GRADIENT WITH HIGHER POPS IN THE
NORTH FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AFTER THIS...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SE CONUS AND THEN SLOWLY RETROGRADES TO
THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME CONVECTION
POPPING UP WITH THE BUILDING HEAT AND HUMIDITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIDGE...ESPECIALLY SINCE WE WILL NOT BE UNDER THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE. HOWEVER...THE POP WILL BE FAIRLY LOW...AND THE GREATER
CHANCE WILL BE TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST...FURTHER REMOVED FROM
THE RIDGE AND CLOSER TO THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

A FEW SHRA OR EVEN A STRAY TSRA MAY DEVELOP DURING THE FIRST 6
HOURS OF THE PERIOD...MAINLY IN THE FAR EAST AS A MID AND UPPER
LEVEL LOW DEPARTS. OTHERWISE...OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION CIGS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR IN ALL AREAS THROUGH 20Z. A BRIEF AREA OF
RIDGING WILL DOMINATE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AND FOG...DENSE IN
SOME AREAS...WILL DEVELOP IN VALLEYS BY 8Z AND THEN LIFT AND
DISSIPATE THROUGH 14Z. THE TAF SITES SHOULD BE AFFECTED...LOZ AND
SME FIRST AND THEN SJS...SYM AND JKL AS THE FOG LIFTS. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KJKL 061810 AAD
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
210 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATION AND
SATELLITE TRENDS. THIS LED TO NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANCES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1110 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

A FEW SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA
AS THE MID LEVEL LOW GRADUALLY DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST. IN
BETWEEN THIS DEPARTING SYSTEM AND A TROUGH APPROACHING THE GREAT
LAKES AND MID MS VALLEY REGION...SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS BUILDING
TOWARD THE AREA. THIS SHOULD CONFINE ANY CONVECTION TODAY TO
EASTERN LOCATIONS...WITH A DAY TO DRY OUT FOR MOST.

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON OBSERVATION AND RADAR
TRENDS. THIS LED TO LOWERING MAX T A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA DUE TO THE INITIAL CLOUD COVER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

ADJUSTED POPS DOWN MAINLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES...BUT
DECIDED TO KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH RES MODELS PRODUCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS.
ALSO FRESHENED UP T/TD GRIDS TO ALIGN WITH MOST RECENT OBS.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

A FEW STUBBORN SHOWERS REMAIN IN EASTERN KENTUCKY AS OF 330 AM BUT
SHOULDN`T CAUSE ANY ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS THIS MORNING.
SO HAVE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH A BIT EARLY. WITH A
MOIST GROUND AND CLEARING SKIES...AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE SET IN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO 1/2 MI OR LESS IN
SPOTS. THIS IS THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM AND WILL INCLUDE
IT IN THE HWO.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY
ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT/CLEARING OF CONDITIONS AND SKY
COVER FROM SW TO NE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE MAY BE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST BUT OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE A
SHORT BREAK FROM THE RAIN UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION. TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW
WILL REACH THE MID 80S...RIGHT AT NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF
JULY. THIS IS THE FIRST TIME WE WILL SEE THE 85 DEGREE MARK IN
OVER A WEEK.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE PASSING NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL SEND
A SURFACE COLD FRONT IN OUR DIRECTION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.
IT WILL STALL NEARBY BEFORE HEADING BACK NORTH. MODELS SHOW
VARIATION CONCERNING HOW FAR SOUTH IT MAKES IT...AND THIS PLAYS A
ROLE IN THE POP. HAVE USED A POP GRADIENT WITH HIGHER POPS IN THE
NORTH FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AFTER THIS...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SE CONUS AND THEN SLOWLY RETROGRADES TO
THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME CONVECTION
POPPING UP WITH THE BUILDING HEAT AND HUMIDITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIDGE...ESPECIALLY SINCE WE WILL NOT BE UNDER THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE. HOWEVER...THE POP WILL BE FAIRLY LOW...AND THE GREATER
CHANCE WILL BE TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST...FURTHER REMOVED FROM
THE RIDGE AND CLOSER TO THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

A FEW SHRA OR EVEN A STRAY TSRA MAY DEVELOP DURING THE FIRST 6
HOURS OF THE PERIOD...MAINLY IN THE FAR EAST AS A MID AND UPPER
LEVEL LOW DEPARTS. OTHERWISE...OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION CIGS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR IN ALL AREAS THROUGH 20Z. A BRIEF AREA OF
RIDGING WILL DOMINATE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AND FOG...DENSE IN
SOME AREAS...WILL DEVELOP IN VALLEYS BY 8Z AND THEN LIFT AND
DISSIPATE THROUGH 14Z. THE TAF SITES SHOULD BE AFFECTED...LOZ AND
SME FIRST AND THEN SJS...SYM AND JKL AS THE FOG LIFTS. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JP





000
FXUS63 KJKL 061810 AAD
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
210 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATION AND
SATELLITE TRENDS. THIS LED TO NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANCES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1110 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

A FEW SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA
AS THE MID LEVEL LOW GRADUALLY DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST. IN
BETWEEN THIS DEPARTING SYSTEM AND A TROUGH APPROACHING THE GREAT
LAKES AND MID MS VALLEY REGION...SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS BUILDING
TOWARD THE AREA. THIS SHOULD CONFINE ANY CONVECTION TODAY TO
EASTERN LOCATIONS...WITH A DAY TO DRY OUT FOR MOST.

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON OBSERVATION AND RADAR
TRENDS. THIS LED TO LOWERING MAX T A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA DUE TO THE INITIAL CLOUD COVER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

ADJUSTED POPS DOWN MAINLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES...BUT
DECIDED TO KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH RES MODELS PRODUCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS.
ALSO FRESHENED UP T/TD GRIDS TO ALIGN WITH MOST RECENT OBS.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

A FEW STUBBORN SHOWERS REMAIN IN EASTERN KENTUCKY AS OF 330 AM BUT
SHOULDN`T CAUSE ANY ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS THIS MORNING.
SO HAVE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH A BIT EARLY. WITH A
MOIST GROUND AND CLEARING SKIES...AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE SET IN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO 1/2 MI OR LESS IN
SPOTS. THIS IS THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM AND WILL INCLUDE
IT IN THE HWO.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY
ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT/CLEARING OF CONDITIONS AND SKY
COVER FROM SW TO NE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE MAY BE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST BUT OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE A
SHORT BREAK FROM THE RAIN UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION. TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW
WILL REACH THE MID 80S...RIGHT AT NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF
JULY. THIS IS THE FIRST TIME WE WILL SEE THE 85 DEGREE MARK IN
OVER A WEEK.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE PASSING NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL SEND
A SURFACE COLD FRONT IN OUR DIRECTION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.
IT WILL STALL NEARBY BEFORE HEADING BACK NORTH. MODELS SHOW
VARIATION CONCERNING HOW FAR SOUTH IT MAKES IT...AND THIS PLAYS A
ROLE IN THE POP. HAVE USED A POP GRADIENT WITH HIGHER POPS IN THE
NORTH FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AFTER THIS...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SE CONUS AND THEN SLOWLY RETROGRADES TO
THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME CONVECTION
POPPING UP WITH THE BUILDING HEAT AND HUMIDITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIDGE...ESPECIALLY SINCE WE WILL NOT BE UNDER THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE. HOWEVER...THE POP WILL BE FAIRLY LOW...AND THE GREATER
CHANCE WILL BE TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST...FURTHER REMOVED FROM
THE RIDGE AND CLOSER TO THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

A FEW SHRA OR EVEN A STRAY TSRA MAY DEVELOP DURING THE FIRST 6
HOURS OF THE PERIOD...MAINLY IN THE FAR EAST AS A MID AND UPPER
LEVEL LOW DEPARTS. OTHERWISE...OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION CIGS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR IN ALL AREAS THROUGH 20Z. A BRIEF AREA OF
RIDGING WILL DOMINATE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AND FOG...DENSE IN
SOME AREAS...WILL DEVELOP IN VALLEYS BY 8Z AND THEN LIFT AND
DISSIPATE THROUGH 14Z. THE TAF SITES SHOULD BE AFFECTED...LOZ AND
SME FIRST AND THEN SJS...SYM AND JKL AS THE FOG LIFTS. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JP





000
FXUS63 KJKL 061810 AAD
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
210 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATION AND
SATELLITE TRENDS. THIS LED TO NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANCES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1110 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

A FEW SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA
AS THE MID LEVEL LOW GRADUALLY DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST. IN
BETWEEN THIS DEPARTING SYSTEM AND A TROUGH APPROACHING THE GREAT
LAKES AND MID MS VALLEY REGION...SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS BUILDING
TOWARD THE AREA. THIS SHOULD CONFINE ANY CONVECTION TODAY TO
EASTERN LOCATIONS...WITH A DAY TO DRY OUT FOR MOST.

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON OBSERVATION AND RADAR
TRENDS. THIS LED TO LOWERING MAX T A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA DUE TO THE INITIAL CLOUD COVER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

ADJUSTED POPS DOWN MAINLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES...BUT
DECIDED TO KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH RES MODELS PRODUCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS.
ALSO FRESHENED UP T/TD GRIDS TO ALIGN WITH MOST RECENT OBS.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

A FEW STUBBORN SHOWERS REMAIN IN EASTERN KENTUCKY AS OF 330 AM BUT
SHOULDN`T CAUSE ANY ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS THIS MORNING.
SO HAVE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH A BIT EARLY. WITH A
MOIST GROUND AND CLEARING SKIES...AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE SET IN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO 1/2 MI OR LESS IN
SPOTS. THIS IS THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM AND WILL INCLUDE
IT IN THE HWO.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY
ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT/CLEARING OF CONDITIONS AND SKY
COVER FROM SW TO NE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE MAY BE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST BUT OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE A
SHORT BREAK FROM THE RAIN UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION. TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW
WILL REACH THE MID 80S...RIGHT AT NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF
JULY. THIS IS THE FIRST TIME WE WILL SEE THE 85 DEGREE MARK IN
OVER A WEEK.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE PASSING NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL SEND
A SURFACE COLD FRONT IN OUR DIRECTION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.
IT WILL STALL NEARBY BEFORE HEADING BACK NORTH. MODELS SHOW
VARIATION CONCERNING HOW FAR SOUTH IT MAKES IT...AND THIS PLAYS A
ROLE IN THE POP. HAVE USED A POP GRADIENT WITH HIGHER POPS IN THE
NORTH FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AFTER THIS...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SE CONUS AND THEN SLOWLY RETROGRADES TO
THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME CONVECTION
POPPING UP WITH THE BUILDING HEAT AND HUMIDITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIDGE...ESPECIALLY SINCE WE WILL NOT BE UNDER THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE. HOWEVER...THE POP WILL BE FAIRLY LOW...AND THE GREATER
CHANCE WILL BE TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST...FURTHER REMOVED FROM
THE RIDGE AND CLOSER TO THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

A FEW SHRA OR EVEN A STRAY TSRA MAY DEVELOP DURING THE FIRST 6
HOURS OF THE PERIOD...MAINLY IN THE FAR EAST AS A MID AND UPPER
LEVEL LOW DEPARTS. OTHERWISE...OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION CIGS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR IN ALL AREAS THROUGH 20Z. A BRIEF AREA OF
RIDGING WILL DOMINATE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AND FOG...DENSE IN
SOME AREAS...WILL DEVELOP IN VALLEYS BY 8Z AND THEN LIFT AND
DISSIPATE THROUGH 14Z. THE TAF SITES SHOULD BE AFFECTED...LOZ AND
SME FIRST AND THEN SJS...SYM AND JKL AS THE FOG LIFTS. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KJKL 061518 AAC
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1118 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1110 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

A FEW SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA
AS THE MID LEVEL LOW GRADUALLY DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST. IN
BETWEEN THIS DEPARTING SYSTEM AND A TROUGH APPROACHING THE GREAT
LAKES AND MID MS VALLEY REGION...SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS BUILDING
TOWARD THE AREA. THIS SHOULD CONFINE ANY CONVECTION TODAY TO
EASTERN LOCATIONS...WITH A DAY TO DRY OUT FOR MOST.

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON OBSERVATION AND RADAR
TRENDS. THIS LED TO LOWERING MAX T A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA DUE TO THE INITIAL CLOUD COVER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

ADJUSTED POPS DOWN MAINLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES...BUT
DECIDED TO KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH RES MODELS PRODUCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS.
ALSO FRESHENED UP T/TD GRIDS TO ALIGN WITH MOST RECENT OBS.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

A FEW STUBBORN SHOWERS REMAIN IN EASTERN KENTUCKY AS OF 330 AM BUT
SHOULDN`T CAUSE ANY ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS THIS MORNING.
SO HAVE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH A BIT EARLY. WITH A
MOIST GROUND AND CLEARING SKIES...AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE SET IN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO 1/2 MI OR LESS IN
SPOTS. THIS IS THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM AND WILL INCLUDE
IT IN THE HWO.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY
ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT/CLEARING OF CONDITIONS AND SKY
COVER FROM SW TO NE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE MAY BE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST BUT OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE A
SHORT BREAK FROM THE RAIN UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION. TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW
WILL REACH THE MID 80S...RIGHT AT NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF
JULY. THIS IS THE FIRST TIME WE WILL SEE THE 85 DEGREE MARK IN
OVER A WEEK.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE PASSING NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL SEND
A SURFACE COLD FRONT IN OUR DIRECTION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.
IT WILL STALL NEARBY BEFORE HEADING BACK NORTH. MODELS SHOW
VARIATION CONCERNING HOW FAR SOUTH IT MAKES IT...AND THIS PLAYS A
ROLE IN THE POP. HAVE USED A POP GRADIENT WITH HIGHER POPS IN THE
NORTH FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AFTER THIS...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SE CONUS AND THEN SLOWLY RETROGRADES TO
THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME CONVECTION
POPPING UP WITH THE BUILDING HEAT AND HUMIDITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIDGE...ESPECIALLY SINCE WE WILL NOT BE UNDER THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE. HOWEVER...THE POP WILL BE FAIRLY LOW...AND THE GREATER
CHANCE WILL BE TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST...FURTHER REMOVED FROM
THE RIDGE AND CLOSER TO THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 804 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

MOST LOCATIONS HAD VERY LOW CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITY AT TAF
ISSUANCE. THERE WERE ALSO SOME SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE STATE. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL IMPROVE
THIS MORNING...GIVING WAY TO GENERALLY VFR FOR THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...SHOWERS MAY PERSIST OR EVEN REDEVELOP FOR THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
BEST CHANCE IS NEAR THE WV BORDER. ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIE
OUT THIS EVENING. FOG WILL DEVELOP IN VALLEYS TONIGHT AND SPREAD
OUTWARD. MOST TAF SITES WILL BE AFFECTED...ESPECIALLY THOSE NOT ON
RIDGES.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...HAL




000
FXUS63 KJKL 061518 AAC
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1118 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1110 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

A FEW SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA
AS THE MID LEVEL LOW GRADUALLY DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST. IN
BETWEEN THIS DEPARTING SYSTEM AND A TROUGH APPROACHING THE GREAT
LAKES AND MID MS VALLEY REGION...SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS BUILDING
TOWARD THE AREA. THIS SHOULD CONFINE ANY CONVECTION TODAY TO
EASTERN LOCATIONS...WITH A DAY TO DRY OUT FOR MOST.

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON OBSERVATION AND RADAR
TRENDS. THIS LED TO LOWERING MAX T A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA DUE TO THE INITIAL CLOUD COVER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

ADJUSTED POPS DOWN MAINLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES...BUT
DECIDED TO KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH RES MODELS PRODUCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS.
ALSO FRESHENED UP T/TD GRIDS TO ALIGN WITH MOST RECENT OBS.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

A FEW STUBBORN SHOWERS REMAIN IN EASTERN KENTUCKY AS OF 330 AM BUT
SHOULDN`T CAUSE ANY ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS THIS MORNING.
SO HAVE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH A BIT EARLY. WITH A
MOIST GROUND AND CLEARING SKIES...AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE SET IN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO 1/2 MI OR LESS IN
SPOTS. THIS IS THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM AND WILL INCLUDE
IT IN THE HWO.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY
ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT/CLEARING OF CONDITIONS AND SKY
COVER FROM SW TO NE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE MAY BE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST BUT OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE A
SHORT BREAK FROM THE RAIN UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION. TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW
WILL REACH THE MID 80S...RIGHT AT NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF
JULY. THIS IS THE FIRST TIME WE WILL SEE THE 85 DEGREE MARK IN
OVER A WEEK.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE PASSING NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL SEND
A SURFACE COLD FRONT IN OUR DIRECTION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.
IT WILL STALL NEARBY BEFORE HEADING BACK NORTH. MODELS SHOW
VARIATION CONCERNING HOW FAR SOUTH IT MAKES IT...AND THIS PLAYS A
ROLE IN THE POP. HAVE USED A POP GRADIENT WITH HIGHER POPS IN THE
NORTH FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AFTER THIS...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SE CONUS AND THEN SLOWLY RETROGRADES TO
THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME CONVECTION
POPPING UP WITH THE BUILDING HEAT AND HUMIDITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIDGE...ESPECIALLY SINCE WE WILL NOT BE UNDER THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE. HOWEVER...THE POP WILL BE FAIRLY LOW...AND THE GREATER
CHANCE WILL BE TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST...FURTHER REMOVED FROM
THE RIDGE AND CLOSER TO THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 804 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

MOST LOCATIONS HAD VERY LOW CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITY AT TAF
ISSUANCE. THERE WERE ALSO SOME SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE STATE. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL IMPROVE
THIS MORNING...GIVING WAY TO GENERALLY VFR FOR THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...SHOWERS MAY PERSIST OR EVEN REDEVELOP FOR THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
BEST CHANCE IS NEAR THE WV BORDER. ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIE
OUT THIS EVENING. FOG WILL DEVELOP IN VALLEYS TONIGHT AND SPREAD
OUTWARD. MOST TAF SITES WILL BE AFFECTED...ESPECIALLY THOSE NOT ON
RIDGES.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...HAL





000
FXUS63 KJKL 061204
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
804 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

ADJUSTED POPS DOWN MAINLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES...BUT
DECIDED TO KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH RES MODELS PRODUCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS.
ALSO FRESHENED UP T/TD GRIDS TO ALIGN WITH MOST RECENT OBS.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

A FEW STUBBORN SHOWERS REMAIN IN EASTERN KENTUCKY AS OF 330 AM BUT
SHOULDN`T CAUSE ANY ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS THIS MORNING.
SO HAVE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH A BIT EARLY. WITH A
MOIST GROUND AND CLEARING SKIES...AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE SET IN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO 1/2 MI OR LESS IN
SPOTS. THIS IS THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM AND WILL INCLUDE
IT IN THE HWO.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY
ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT/CLEARING OF CONDITIONS AND SKY
COVER FROM SW TO NE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE MAY BE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST BUT OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE A
SHORT BREAK FROM THE RAIN UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION. TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW
WILL REACH THE MID 80S...RIGHT AT NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF
JULY. THIS IS THE FIRST TIME WE WILL SEE THE 85 DEGREE MARK IN
OVER A WEEK.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE PASSING NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL SEND
A SURFACE COLD FRONT IN OUR DIRECTION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.
IT WILL STALL NEARBY BEFORE HEADING BACK NORTH. MODELS SHOW
VARIATION CONCERNING HOW FAR SOUTH IT MAKES IT...AND THIS PLAYS A
ROLE IN THE POP. HAVE USED A POP GRADIENT WITH HIGHER POPS IN THE
NORTH FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AFTER THIS...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SE CONUS AND THEN SLOWLY RETROGRADES TO
THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME CONVECTION
POPPING UP WITH THE BUILDING HEAT AND HUMIDITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIDGE...ESPECIALLY SINCE WE WILL NOT BE UNDER THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE. HOWEVER...THE POP WILL BE FAIRLY LOW...AND THE GREATER
CHANCE WILL BE TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST...FURTHER REMOVED FROM
THE RIDGE AND CLOSER TO THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 804 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

MOST LOCATIONS HAD VERY LOW CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITY AT TAF
ISSUANCE. THERE WERE ALSO SOME SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE STATE. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL IMPROVE
THIS MORNING...GIVING WAY TO GENERALLY VFR FOR THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...SHOWERS MAY PERSIST OR EVEN REDEVELOP FOR THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
BEST CHANCE IS NEAR THE WV BORDER. ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIE
OUT THIS EVENING. FOG WILL DEVELOP IN VALLEYS TONIGHT AND SPREAD
OUTWARD. MOST TAF SITES WILL BE AFFECTED...ESPECIALLY THOSE NOT ON
RIDGES.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...HAL




000
FXUS63 KJKL 061040
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
640 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

ADJUSTED POPS DOWN MAINLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES...BUT
DECIDED TO KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH RES MODELS PRODUCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS.
ALSO FRESHENED UP T/TD GRIDS TO ALIGN WITH MOST RECENT OBS.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

A FEW STUBBORN SHOWERS REMAIN IN EASTERN KENTUCKY AS OF 330 AM BUT
SHOULDN`T CAUSE ANY ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS THIS MORNING.
SO HAVE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH A BIT EARLY. WITH A
MOIST GROUND AND CLEARING SKIES...AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE SET IN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO 1/2 MI OR LESS IN
SPOTS. THIS IS THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM AND WILL INCLUDE
IT IN THE HWO.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY
ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT/CLEARING OF CONDITIONS AND SKY
COVER FROM SW TO NE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE MAY BE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST BUT OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE A
SHORT BREAK FROM THE RAIN UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION. TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW
WILL REACH THE MID 80S...RIGHT AT NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF
JULY. THIS IS THE FIRST TIME WE WILL SEE THE 85 DEGREE MARK IN
OVER A WEEK.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE PASSING NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL SEND
A SURFACE COLD FRONT IN OUR DIRECTION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.
IT WILL STALL NEARBY BEFORE HEADING BACK NORTH. MODELS SHOW
VARIATION CONCERNING HOW FAR SOUTH IT MAKES IT...AND THIS PLAYS A
ROLE IN THE POP. HAVE USED A POP GRADIENT WITH HIGHER POPS IN THE
NORTH FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AFTER THIS...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SE CONUS AND THEN SLOWLY RETROGRADES TO
THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME CONVECTION
POPPING UP WITH THE BUILDING HEAT AND HUMIDITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIDGE...ESPECIALLY SINCE WE WILL NOT BE UNDER THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE. HOWEVER...THE POP WILL BE FAIRLY LOW...AND THE GREATER
CHANCE WILL BE TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST...FURTHER REMOVED FROM
THE RIDGE AND CLOSER TO THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

ONLY A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN NEAR JKL AT THIS TIME AND EXPECT THOSE
TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ELSEWHERE...FOG HAS
ALREADY SET IN ACROSS THE REMAINING TAF SITES WITH IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT
BEFORE THE FOG BURNS OFF AROUND 14Z...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THEREAFTER. WITH CLEAR SKIES TOMORROW NIGHT...HAVE INCLUDED MVFR
CONDITIONS NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
ANOTHER FOGGY NIGHT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JVM




000
FXUS63 KJKL 061040
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
640 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

ADJUSTED POPS DOWN MAINLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES...BUT
DECIDED TO KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH RES MODELS PRODUCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS.
ALSO FRESHENED UP T/TD GRIDS TO ALIGN WITH MOST RECENT OBS.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

A FEW STUBBORN SHOWERS REMAIN IN EASTERN KENTUCKY AS OF 330 AM BUT
SHOULDN`T CAUSE ANY ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS THIS MORNING.
SO HAVE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH A BIT EARLY. WITH A
MOIST GROUND AND CLEARING SKIES...AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE SET IN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO 1/2 MI OR LESS IN
SPOTS. THIS IS THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM AND WILL INCLUDE
IT IN THE HWO.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY
ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT/CLEARING OF CONDITIONS AND SKY
COVER FROM SW TO NE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE MAY BE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST BUT OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE A
SHORT BREAK FROM THE RAIN UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION. TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW
WILL REACH THE MID 80S...RIGHT AT NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF
JULY. THIS IS THE FIRST TIME WE WILL SEE THE 85 DEGREE MARK IN
OVER A WEEK.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE PASSING NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL SEND
A SURFACE COLD FRONT IN OUR DIRECTION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.
IT WILL STALL NEARBY BEFORE HEADING BACK NORTH. MODELS SHOW
VARIATION CONCERNING HOW FAR SOUTH IT MAKES IT...AND THIS PLAYS A
ROLE IN THE POP. HAVE USED A POP GRADIENT WITH HIGHER POPS IN THE
NORTH FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AFTER THIS...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SE CONUS AND THEN SLOWLY RETROGRADES TO
THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME CONVECTION
POPPING UP WITH THE BUILDING HEAT AND HUMIDITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIDGE...ESPECIALLY SINCE WE WILL NOT BE UNDER THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE. HOWEVER...THE POP WILL BE FAIRLY LOW...AND THE GREATER
CHANCE WILL BE TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST...FURTHER REMOVED FROM
THE RIDGE AND CLOSER TO THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

ONLY A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN NEAR JKL AT THIS TIME AND EXPECT THOSE
TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ELSEWHERE...FOG HAS
ALREADY SET IN ACROSS THE REMAINING TAF SITES WITH IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT
BEFORE THE FOG BURNS OFF AROUND 14Z...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THEREAFTER. WITH CLEAR SKIES TOMORROW NIGHT...HAVE INCLUDED MVFR
CONDITIONS NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
ANOTHER FOGGY NIGHT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JVM





000
FXUS63 KJKL 060844
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
444 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

A FEW STUBBORN SHOWERS REMAIN IN EASTERN KENTUCKY AS OF 330 AM BUT
SHOULDN`T CAUSE ANY ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS THIS MORNING.
SO HAVE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH A BIT EARLY. WITH A
MOIST GROUND AND CLEARING SKIES...AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE SET IN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO 1/2 MI OR LESS IN
SPOTS. THIS IS THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM AND WILL INCLUDE
IT IN THE HWO.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY
ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT/CLEARING OF CONDITIONS AND SKY
COVER FROM SW TO NE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE MAY BE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST BUT OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE A
SHORT BREAK FROM THE RAIN UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION. TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW
WILL REACH THE MID 80S...RIGHT AT NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF
JULY. THIS IS THE FIRST TIME WE WILL SEE THE 85 DEGREE MARK IN
OVER A WEEK.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE PASSING NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL SEND
A SURFACE COLD FRONT IN OUR DIRECTION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.
IT WILL STALL NEARBY BEFORE HEADING BACK NORTH. MODELS SHOW
VARIATION CONCERNING HOW FAR SOUTH IT MAKES IT...AND THIS PLAYS A
ROLE IN THE POP. HAVE USED A POP GRADIENT WITH HIGHER POPS IN THE
NORTH FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AFTER THIS...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SE CONUS AND THEN SLOWLY RETROGRADES TO
THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME CONVECTION
POPPING UP WITH THE BUILDING HEAT AND HUMIDITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIDGE...ESPECIALLY SINCE WE WILL NOT BE UNDER THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE. HOWEVER...THE POP WILL BE FAIRLY LOW...AND THE GREATER
CHANCE WILL BE TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST...FURTHER REMOVED FROM
THE RIDGE AND CLOSER TO THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

ONLY A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN NEAR JKL AT THIS TIME AND EXPECT THOSE
TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ELSEWHERE...FOG HAS
ALREADY SET IN ACROSS THE REMAINING TAF SITES WITH IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT
BEFORE THE FOG BURNS OFF AROUND 14Z...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THEREAFTER. WITH CLEAR SKIES TOMORROW NIGHT...HAVE INCLUDED MVFR
CONDITIONS NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
ANOTHER FOGGY NIGHT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JVM




000
FXUS63 KJKL 060844
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
444 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

A FEW STUBBORN SHOWERS REMAIN IN EASTERN KENTUCKY AS OF 330 AM BUT
SHOULDN`T CAUSE ANY ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS THIS MORNING.
SO HAVE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH A BIT EARLY. WITH A
MOIST GROUND AND CLEARING SKIES...AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE SET IN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO 1/2 MI OR LESS IN
SPOTS. THIS IS THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM AND WILL INCLUDE
IT IN THE HWO.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY
ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT/CLEARING OF CONDITIONS AND SKY
COVER FROM SW TO NE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE MAY BE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST BUT OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE A
SHORT BREAK FROM THE RAIN UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION. TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW
WILL REACH THE MID 80S...RIGHT AT NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF
JULY. THIS IS THE FIRST TIME WE WILL SEE THE 85 DEGREE MARK IN
OVER A WEEK.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE PASSING NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL SEND
A SURFACE COLD FRONT IN OUR DIRECTION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.
IT WILL STALL NEARBY BEFORE HEADING BACK NORTH. MODELS SHOW
VARIATION CONCERNING HOW FAR SOUTH IT MAKES IT...AND THIS PLAYS A
ROLE IN THE POP. HAVE USED A POP GRADIENT WITH HIGHER POPS IN THE
NORTH FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AFTER THIS...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SE CONUS AND THEN SLOWLY RETROGRADES TO
THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME CONVECTION
POPPING UP WITH THE BUILDING HEAT AND HUMIDITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIDGE...ESPECIALLY SINCE WE WILL NOT BE UNDER THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE. HOWEVER...THE POP WILL BE FAIRLY LOW...AND THE GREATER
CHANCE WILL BE TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST...FURTHER REMOVED FROM
THE RIDGE AND CLOSER TO THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

ONLY A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN NEAR JKL AT THIS TIME AND EXPECT THOSE
TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ELSEWHERE...FOG HAS
ALREADY SET IN ACROSS THE REMAINING TAF SITES WITH IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT
BEFORE THE FOG BURNS OFF AROUND 14Z...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THEREAFTER. WITH CLEAR SKIES TOMORROW NIGHT...HAVE INCLUDED MVFR
CONDITIONS NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
ANOTHER FOGGY NIGHT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JVM





000
FXUS63 KJKL 060757
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
357 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

A FEW STUBBORN SHOWERS REMAIN IN EASTERN KENTUCKY AS OF 330 AM BUT
SHOULDN`T CAUSE ANY ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS THIS MORNING.
SO HAVE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH A BIT EARLY. WITH A
MOIST GROUND AND CLEARING SKIES...AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE SET IN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO 1/2 MI OR LESS IN
SPOTS. THIS IS THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM AND WILL INCLUDE
IT IN THE HWO.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY
ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT/CLEARING OF CONDITIONS AND SKY
COVER FROM SW TO NE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE MAY BE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST BUT OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE A
SHORT BREAK FROM THE RAIN UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION. TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW
WILL REACH THE MID 80S...RIGHT AT NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF
JULY. THIS IS THE FIRST TIME WE WILL SEE THE 85 DEGREE MARK IN
OVER A WEEK.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

ONLY A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN NEAR JKL AT THIS TIME AND EXPECT THOSE
TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ELSEWHERE...FOG HAS
ALREADY SET IN ACROSS THE REMAINING TAF SITES WITH IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT
BEFORE THE FOG BURNS OFF AROUND 14Z...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THEREAFTER. WITH CLEAR SKIES TOMORROW NIGHT...HAVE INCLUDED MVFR
CONDITIONS NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
ANOTHER FOGGY NIGHT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JVM




000
FXUS63 KJKL 060757
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
357 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

A FEW STUBBORN SHOWERS REMAIN IN EASTERN KENTUCKY AS OF 330 AM BUT
SHOULDN`T CAUSE ANY ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS THIS MORNING.
SO HAVE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH A BIT EARLY. WITH A
MOIST GROUND AND CLEARING SKIES...AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE SET IN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO 1/2 MI OR LESS IN
SPOTS. THIS IS THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM AND WILL INCLUDE
IT IN THE HWO.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY
ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT/CLEARING OF CONDITIONS AND SKY
COVER FROM SW TO NE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE MAY BE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST BUT OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE A
SHORT BREAK FROM THE RAIN UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION. TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW
WILL REACH THE MID 80S...RIGHT AT NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF
JULY. THIS IS THE FIRST TIME WE WILL SEE THE 85 DEGREE MARK IN
OVER A WEEK.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

ONLY A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN NEAR JKL AT THIS TIME AND EXPECT THOSE
TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ELSEWHERE...FOG HAS
ALREADY SET IN ACROSS THE REMAINING TAF SITES WITH IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT
BEFORE THE FOG BURNS OFF AROUND 14Z...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THEREAFTER. WITH CLEAR SKIES TOMORROW NIGHT...HAVE INCLUDED MVFR
CONDITIONS NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
ANOTHER FOGGY NIGHT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JVM





000
FXUS63 KJKL 060640
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
240 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

ONLY A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA BUT EXPECT THEM TO
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING
CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. SO HAVE FRESHENED UP POPS TO
REFLECT THE LINGERING SHOWERS AND HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED T/TD GRIDS TO
REFLECT MOST RECENT OBS. DENSE FOG IS A CONCERN TONIGHT AS MUCH OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY HAS REDUCED VISIBILITIES OF 1/2 MILE OR LESS SO
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THAT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1205 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A FEW AREAS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE TO SPIRAL IN FROM WEST
VIRGINIA...WHILE ANOTHER NEARLY STATIONARY BAND IS GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. HAVE FRESHENED UP
THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. WILL MAINTAIN POPS IN THE
EAST...HOWEVER GIVEN THE WEAKENING TREND...WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED
THUNDER FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ANY PERSISTENT MODERATE TO
HEAVY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING OVERNIGHT IN THE EAST...SO WILL KEEP THE WATCH GOING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT SUN
JUL 5 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SLOWLY PIVOTING AWAY FROM THE AREA.
CONVECTION HAS DWINDLED ACROSS OUR WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...AND
GIVEN THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND DIMINISHING FORCING THROUGH
TONIGHT...HAVE LET THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXPIRE ON TIME. TO THE
EAST...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND AN OCCASIONAL STORM WILL
STILL BE THREATENING THROUGH THE NIGHT. HAVE LEFT THE REST OF THE
WATCH AS IS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR ANY SLOW-
MOVING CELLS. FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW
POINTS...AND POPS TO MATCH THE CURRENT TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.
ALSO ALLOWED FOR A LITTLE MORE FOG GIVEN ALL OF THE RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SMALL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AS OF MID AFTERNOON...A MID LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY REGION. SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE BIG SANDY REGION AND IN THE SOMERSET VICINITY. THESE
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL RATES.

THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY MEANDER NORTHEAST THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT TOWARD THE NE KY/WESTERN WV/SOUTHERN OH AREA. THIS MID
LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY DEPART INTO THE MID AND UPPER OH VALLEY
REGIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME...A TROUGH
WILL MOVE FROM THE PLAINS STATES AND ENTER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND APPROACH THE LOWER OH VALLEY
REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD.

THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO AN OVERALL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TONIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. UNTIL THEN...SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL REMAIN A THREAT AND
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT AS IS AT THIS
POINT. SOME STRATUS BUILD DOWN AND FOG DEVELOPMENT...POSSIBLY
DENSE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVERNIGHT WITH THE FOG NOT BEING CONFINED TO THE VALLEYS.

THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. A RELATIVE LULL IN
PRECIP CHANCES IS EXPECTED BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING
INTO MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING MID LEVEL LOW
AND THE APPROACHING. IN THE WARM SECTOR...CONVECTION CANNOT BE
RULED OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH AND SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO
REMAIN RATHER FLAT WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY JUST TO THE NORTH OF ITS CORE. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MEANDER AROUND TO OUR NORTH THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT WILL NECESSITATE A
DAILY MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEVELOPING RIDGE. FORECAST HIGHS WERE
NUDGED UPWARD INTO THE MUGGY MID AND UPPER 80S TOWARD THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS IN THE
MORNING MODEL RUNS FOR A STRONGER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

ONLY A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN NEAR JKL AT THIS TIME AND EXPECT THOSE
TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ELSEWHERE...FOG HAS
ALREADY SET IN ACROSS THE REMAINING TAF SITES WITH IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT
BEFORE THE FOG BURNS OFF AROUND 14Z...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THEREAFTER. WITH CLEAR SKIES TOMORROW NIGHT...HAVE INCLUDED MVFR
CONDITIONS NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
ANOTHER FOGGY NIGHT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR KYZ087-
088-107-109-110-112-113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...JVM





000
FXUS63 KJKL 060640
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
240 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

ONLY A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA BUT EXPECT THEM TO
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING
CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. SO HAVE FRESHENED UP POPS TO
REFLECT THE LINGERING SHOWERS AND HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED T/TD GRIDS TO
REFLECT MOST RECENT OBS. DENSE FOG IS A CONCERN TONIGHT AS MUCH OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY HAS REDUCED VISIBILITIES OF 1/2 MILE OR LESS SO
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THAT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1205 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A FEW AREAS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE TO SPIRAL IN FROM WEST
VIRGINIA...WHILE ANOTHER NEARLY STATIONARY BAND IS GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. HAVE FRESHENED UP
THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. WILL MAINTAIN POPS IN THE
EAST...HOWEVER GIVEN THE WEAKENING TREND...WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED
THUNDER FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ANY PERSISTENT MODERATE TO
HEAVY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING OVERNIGHT IN THE EAST...SO WILL KEEP THE WATCH GOING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT SUN
JUL 5 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SLOWLY PIVOTING AWAY FROM THE AREA.
CONVECTION HAS DWINDLED ACROSS OUR WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...AND
GIVEN THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND DIMINISHING FORCING THROUGH
TONIGHT...HAVE LET THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXPIRE ON TIME. TO THE
EAST...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND AN OCCASIONAL STORM WILL
STILL BE THREATENING THROUGH THE NIGHT. HAVE LEFT THE REST OF THE
WATCH AS IS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR ANY SLOW-
MOVING CELLS. FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW
POINTS...AND POPS TO MATCH THE CURRENT TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.
ALSO ALLOWED FOR A LITTLE MORE FOG GIVEN ALL OF THE RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SMALL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AS OF MID AFTERNOON...A MID LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY REGION. SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE BIG SANDY REGION AND IN THE SOMERSET VICINITY. THESE
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL RATES.

THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY MEANDER NORTHEAST THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT TOWARD THE NE KY/WESTERN WV/SOUTHERN OH AREA. THIS MID
LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY DEPART INTO THE MID AND UPPER OH VALLEY
REGIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME...A TROUGH
WILL MOVE FROM THE PLAINS STATES AND ENTER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND APPROACH THE LOWER OH VALLEY
REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD.

THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO AN OVERALL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TONIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. UNTIL THEN...SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL REMAIN A THREAT AND
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT AS IS AT THIS
POINT. SOME STRATUS BUILD DOWN AND FOG DEVELOPMENT...POSSIBLY
DENSE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVERNIGHT WITH THE FOG NOT BEING CONFINED TO THE VALLEYS.

THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. A RELATIVE LULL IN
PRECIP CHANCES IS EXPECTED BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING
INTO MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING MID LEVEL LOW
AND THE APPROACHING. IN THE WARM SECTOR...CONVECTION CANNOT BE
RULED OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH AND SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO
REMAIN RATHER FLAT WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY JUST TO THE NORTH OF ITS CORE. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MEANDER AROUND TO OUR NORTH THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT WILL NECESSITATE A
DAILY MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEVELOPING RIDGE. FORECAST HIGHS WERE
NUDGED UPWARD INTO THE MUGGY MID AND UPPER 80S TOWARD THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS IN THE
MORNING MODEL RUNS FOR A STRONGER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

ONLY A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN NEAR JKL AT THIS TIME AND EXPECT THOSE
TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ELSEWHERE...FOG HAS
ALREADY SET IN ACROSS THE REMAINING TAF SITES WITH IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT
BEFORE THE FOG BURNS OFF AROUND 14Z...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THEREAFTER. WITH CLEAR SKIES TOMORROW NIGHT...HAVE INCLUDED MVFR
CONDITIONS NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
ANOTHER FOGGY NIGHT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR KYZ087-
088-107-109-110-112-113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...JVM




000
FXUS63 KJKL 060640
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
240 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

ONLY A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA BUT EXPECT THEM TO
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING
CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. SO HAVE FRESHENED UP POPS TO
REFLECT THE LINGERING SHOWERS AND HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED T/TD GRIDS TO
REFLECT MOST RECENT OBS. DENSE FOG IS A CONCERN TONIGHT AS MUCH OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY HAS REDUCED VISIBILITIES OF 1/2 MILE OR LESS SO
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THAT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1205 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A FEW AREAS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE TO SPIRAL IN FROM WEST
VIRGINIA...WHILE ANOTHER NEARLY STATIONARY BAND IS GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. HAVE FRESHENED UP
THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. WILL MAINTAIN POPS IN THE
EAST...HOWEVER GIVEN THE WEAKENING TREND...WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED
THUNDER FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ANY PERSISTENT MODERATE TO
HEAVY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING OVERNIGHT IN THE EAST...SO WILL KEEP THE WATCH GOING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT SUN
JUL 5 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SLOWLY PIVOTING AWAY FROM THE AREA.
CONVECTION HAS DWINDLED ACROSS OUR WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...AND
GIVEN THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND DIMINISHING FORCING THROUGH
TONIGHT...HAVE LET THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXPIRE ON TIME. TO THE
EAST...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND AN OCCASIONAL STORM WILL
STILL BE THREATENING THROUGH THE NIGHT. HAVE LEFT THE REST OF THE
WATCH AS IS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR ANY SLOW-
MOVING CELLS. FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW
POINTS...AND POPS TO MATCH THE CURRENT TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.
ALSO ALLOWED FOR A LITTLE MORE FOG GIVEN ALL OF THE RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SMALL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AS OF MID AFTERNOON...A MID LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY REGION. SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE BIG SANDY REGION AND IN THE SOMERSET VICINITY. THESE
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL RATES.

THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY MEANDER NORTHEAST THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT TOWARD THE NE KY/WESTERN WV/SOUTHERN OH AREA. THIS MID
LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY DEPART INTO THE MID AND UPPER OH VALLEY
REGIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME...A TROUGH
WILL MOVE FROM THE PLAINS STATES AND ENTER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND APPROACH THE LOWER OH VALLEY
REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD.

THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO AN OVERALL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TONIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. UNTIL THEN...SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL REMAIN A THREAT AND
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT AS IS AT THIS
POINT. SOME STRATUS BUILD DOWN AND FOG DEVELOPMENT...POSSIBLY
DENSE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVERNIGHT WITH THE FOG NOT BEING CONFINED TO THE VALLEYS.

THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. A RELATIVE LULL IN
PRECIP CHANCES IS EXPECTED BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING
INTO MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING MID LEVEL LOW
AND THE APPROACHING. IN THE WARM SECTOR...CONVECTION CANNOT BE
RULED OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH AND SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO
REMAIN RATHER FLAT WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY JUST TO THE NORTH OF ITS CORE. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MEANDER AROUND TO OUR NORTH THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT WILL NECESSITATE A
DAILY MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEVELOPING RIDGE. FORECAST HIGHS WERE
NUDGED UPWARD INTO THE MUGGY MID AND UPPER 80S TOWARD THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS IN THE
MORNING MODEL RUNS FOR A STRONGER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

ONLY A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN NEAR JKL AT THIS TIME AND EXPECT THOSE
TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ELSEWHERE...FOG HAS
ALREADY SET IN ACROSS THE REMAINING TAF SITES WITH IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT
BEFORE THE FOG BURNS OFF AROUND 14Z...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THEREAFTER. WITH CLEAR SKIES TOMORROW NIGHT...HAVE INCLUDED MVFR
CONDITIONS NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
ANOTHER FOGGY NIGHT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR KYZ087-
088-107-109-110-112-113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...JVM





000
FXUS63 KJKL 060548
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
148 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1205 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A FEW AREAS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE TO SPIRAL IN FROM WEST
VIRGINIA...WHILE ANOTHER NEARLY STATIONARY BAND IS GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. HAVE FRESHENED UP
THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. WILL MAINTAIN POPS IN THE
EAST...HOWEVER GIVEN THE WEAKENING TREND...WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED
THUNDER FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ANY PERSISTENT MODERATE TO
HEAVY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING OVERNIGHT IN THE EAST...SO WILL KEEP THE WATCH GOING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT SUN
JUL 5 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SLOWLY PIVOTING AWAY FROM THE AREA.
CONVECTION HAS DWINDLED ACROSS OUR WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...AND
GIVEN THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND DIMINISHING FORCING THROUGH
TONIGHT...HAVE LET THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXPIRE ON TIME. TO THE
EAST...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND AN OCCASIONAL STORM WILL
STILL BE THREATENING THROUGH THE NIGHT. HAVE LEFT THE REST OF THE
WATCH AS IS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR ANY SLOW-
MOVING CELLS. FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW
POINTS...AND POPS TO MATCH THE CURRENT TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.
ALSO ALLOWED FOR A LITTLE MORE FOG GIVEN ALL OF THE RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SMALL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AS OF MID AFTERNOON...A MID LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY REGION. SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE BIG SANDY REGION AND IN THE SOMERSET VICINITY. THESE
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL RATES.

THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY MEANDER NORTHEAST THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT TOWARD THE NE KY/WESTERN WV/SOUTHERN OH AREA. THIS MID
LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY DEPART INTO THE MID AND UPPER OH VALLEY
REGIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME...A TROUGH
WILL MOVE FROM THE PLAINS STATES AND ENTER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND APPROACH THE LOWER OH VALLEY
REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD.

THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO AN OVERALL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TONIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. UNTIL THEN...SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL REMAIN A THREAT AND
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT AS IS AT THIS
POINT. SOME STRATUS BUILD DOWN AND FOG DEVELOPMENT...POSSIBLY
DENSE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVERNIGHT WITH THE FOG NOT BEING CONFINED TO THE VALLEYS.

THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. A RELATIVE LULL IN
PRECIP CHANCES IS EXPECTED BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING
INTO MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING MID LEVEL LOW
AND THE APPROACHING. IN THE WARM SECTOR...CONVECTION CANNOT BE
RULED OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH AND SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO
REMAIN RATHER FLAT WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY JUST TO THE NORTH OF ITS CORE. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MEANDER AROUND TO OUR NORTH THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT WILL NECESSITATE A
DAILY MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEVELOPING RIDGE. FORECAST HIGHS WERE
NUDGED UPWARD INTO THE MUGGY MID AND UPPER 80S TOWARD THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS IN THE
MORNING MODEL RUNS FOR A STRONGER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

ONLY A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN NEAR JKL AT THIS TIME AND EXPECT THOSE
TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ELSEWHERE...FOG HAS
ALREADY SET IN ACROSS THE REMAINING TAF SITES WITH IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT
BEFORE THE FOG BURNS OFF AROUND 14Z...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THEREAFTER. WITH CLEAR SKIES TOMORROW NIGHT...HAVE INCLUDED MVFR
CONDITIONS NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
ANOTHER FOGGY NIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR KYZ087-
088-107-109-110-112-113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...JVM




000
FXUS63 KJKL 060548
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
148 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1205 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A FEW AREAS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE TO SPIRAL IN FROM WEST
VIRGINIA...WHILE ANOTHER NEARLY STATIONARY BAND IS GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. HAVE FRESHENED UP
THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. WILL MAINTAIN POPS IN THE
EAST...HOWEVER GIVEN THE WEAKENING TREND...WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED
THUNDER FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ANY PERSISTENT MODERATE TO
HEAVY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING OVERNIGHT IN THE EAST...SO WILL KEEP THE WATCH GOING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT SUN
JUL 5 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SLOWLY PIVOTING AWAY FROM THE AREA.
CONVECTION HAS DWINDLED ACROSS OUR WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...AND
GIVEN THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND DIMINISHING FORCING THROUGH
TONIGHT...HAVE LET THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXPIRE ON TIME. TO THE
EAST...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND AN OCCASIONAL STORM WILL
STILL BE THREATENING THROUGH THE NIGHT. HAVE LEFT THE REST OF THE
WATCH AS IS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR ANY SLOW-
MOVING CELLS. FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW
POINTS...AND POPS TO MATCH THE CURRENT TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.
ALSO ALLOWED FOR A LITTLE MORE FOG GIVEN ALL OF THE RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SMALL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AS OF MID AFTERNOON...A MID LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY REGION. SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE BIG SANDY REGION AND IN THE SOMERSET VICINITY. THESE
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL RATES.

THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY MEANDER NORTHEAST THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT TOWARD THE NE KY/WESTERN WV/SOUTHERN OH AREA. THIS MID
LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY DEPART INTO THE MID AND UPPER OH VALLEY
REGIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME...A TROUGH
WILL MOVE FROM THE PLAINS STATES AND ENTER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND APPROACH THE LOWER OH VALLEY
REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD.

THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO AN OVERALL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TONIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. UNTIL THEN...SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL REMAIN A THREAT AND
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT AS IS AT THIS
POINT. SOME STRATUS BUILD DOWN AND FOG DEVELOPMENT...POSSIBLY
DENSE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVERNIGHT WITH THE FOG NOT BEING CONFINED TO THE VALLEYS.

THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. A RELATIVE LULL IN
PRECIP CHANCES IS EXPECTED BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING
INTO MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING MID LEVEL LOW
AND THE APPROACHING. IN THE WARM SECTOR...CONVECTION CANNOT BE
RULED OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH AND SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO
REMAIN RATHER FLAT WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY JUST TO THE NORTH OF ITS CORE. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MEANDER AROUND TO OUR NORTH THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT WILL NECESSITATE A
DAILY MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEVELOPING RIDGE. FORECAST HIGHS WERE
NUDGED UPWARD INTO THE MUGGY MID AND UPPER 80S TOWARD THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS IN THE
MORNING MODEL RUNS FOR A STRONGER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

ONLY A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN NEAR JKL AT THIS TIME AND EXPECT THOSE
TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ELSEWHERE...FOG HAS
ALREADY SET IN ACROSS THE REMAINING TAF SITES WITH IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT
BEFORE THE FOG BURNS OFF AROUND 14Z...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THEREAFTER. WITH CLEAR SKIES TOMORROW NIGHT...HAVE INCLUDED MVFR
CONDITIONS NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
ANOTHER FOGGY NIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR KYZ087-
088-107-109-110-112-113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...JVM





000
FXUS63 KJKL 060548
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
148 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1205 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A FEW AREAS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE TO SPIRAL IN FROM WEST
VIRGINIA...WHILE ANOTHER NEARLY STATIONARY BAND IS GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. HAVE FRESHENED UP
THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. WILL MAINTAIN POPS IN THE
EAST...HOWEVER GIVEN THE WEAKENING TREND...WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED
THUNDER FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ANY PERSISTENT MODERATE TO
HEAVY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING OVERNIGHT IN THE EAST...SO WILL KEEP THE WATCH GOING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT SUN
JUL 5 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SLOWLY PIVOTING AWAY FROM THE AREA.
CONVECTION HAS DWINDLED ACROSS OUR WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...AND
GIVEN THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND DIMINISHING FORCING THROUGH
TONIGHT...HAVE LET THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXPIRE ON TIME. TO THE
EAST...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND AN OCCASIONAL STORM WILL
STILL BE THREATENING THROUGH THE NIGHT. HAVE LEFT THE REST OF THE
WATCH AS IS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR ANY SLOW-
MOVING CELLS. FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW
POINTS...AND POPS TO MATCH THE CURRENT TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.
ALSO ALLOWED FOR A LITTLE MORE FOG GIVEN ALL OF THE RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SMALL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AS OF MID AFTERNOON...A MID LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY REGION. SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE BIG SANDY REGION AND IN THE SOMERSET VICINITY. THESE
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL RATES.

THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY MEANDER NORTHEAST THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT TOWARD THE NE KY/WESTERN WV/SOUTHERN OH AREA. THIS MID
LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY DEPART INTO THE MID AND UPPER OH VALLEY
REGIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME...A TROUGH
WILL MOVE FROM THE PLAINS STATES AND ENTER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND APPROACH THE LOWER OH VALLEY
REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD.

THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO AN OVERALL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TONIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. UNTIL THEN...SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL REMAIN A THREAT AND
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT AS IS AT THIS
POINT. SOME STRATUS BUILD DOWN AND FOG DEVELOPMENT...POSSIBLY
DENSE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVERNIGHT WITH THE FOG NOT BEING CONFINED TO THE VALLEYS.

THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. A RELATIVE LULL IN
PRECIP CHANCES IS EXPECTED BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING
INTO MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING MID LEVEL LOW
AND THE APPROACHING. IN THE WARM SECTOR...CONVECTION CANNOT BE
RULED OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH AND SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO
REMAIN RATHER FLAT WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY JUST TO THE NORTH OF ITS CORE. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MEANDER AROUND TO OUR NORTH THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT WILL NECESSITATE A
DAILY MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEVELOPING RIDGE. FORECAST HIGHS WERE
NUDGED UPWARD INTO THE MUGGY MID AND UPPER 80S TOWARD THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS IN THE
MORNING MODEL RUNS FOR A STRONGER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

ONLY A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN NEAR JKL AT THIS TIME AND EXPECT THOSE
TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ELSEWHERE...FOG HAS
ALREADY SET IN ACROSS THE REMAINING TAF SITES WITH IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT
BEFORE THE FOG BURNS OFF AROUND 14Z...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THEREAFTER. WITH CLEAR SKIES TOMORROW NIGHT...HAVE INCLUDED MVFR
CONDITIONS NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
ANOTHER FOGGY NIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR KYZ087-
088-107-109-110-112-113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...JVM





000
FXUS63 KJKL 060548
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
148 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1205 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A FEW AREAS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE TO SPIRAL IN FROM WEST
VIRGINIA...WHILE ANOTHER NEARLY STATIONARY BAND IS GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. HAVE FRESHENED UP
THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. WILL MAINTAIN POPS IN THE
EAST...HOWEVER GIVEN THE WEAKENING TREND...WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED
THUNDER FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ANY PERSISTENT MODERATE TO
HEAVY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING OVERNIGHT IN THE EAST...SO WILL KEEP THE WATCH GOING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT SUN
JUL 5 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SLOWLY PIVOTING AWAY FROM THE AREA.
CONVECTION HAS DWINDLED ACROSS OUR WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...AND
GIVEN THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND DIMINISHING FORCING THROUGH
TONIGHT...HAVE LET THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXPIRE ON TIME. TO THE
EAST...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND AN OCCASIONAL STORM WILL
STILL BE THREATENING THROUGH THE NIGHT. HAVE LEFT THE REST OF THE
WATCH AS IS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR ANY SLOW-
MOVING CELLS. FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW
POINTS...AND POPS TO MATCH THE CURRENT TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.
ALSO ALLOWED FOR A LITTLE MORE FOG GIVEN ALL OF THE RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SMALL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AS OF MID AFTERNOON...A MID LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY REGION. SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE BIG SANDY REGION AND IN THE SOMERSET VICINITY. THESE
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL RATES.

THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY MEANDER NORTHEAST THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT TOWARD THE NE KY/WESTERN WV/SOUTHERN OH AREA. THIS MID
LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY DEPART INTO THE MID AND UPPER OH VALLEY
REGIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME...A TROUGH
WILL MOVE FROM THE PLAINS STATES AND ENTER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND APPROACH THE LOWER OH VALLEY
REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD.

THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO AN OVERALL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TONIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. UNTIL THEN...SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL REMAIN A THREAT AND
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT AS IS AT THIS
POINT. SOME STRATUS BUILD DOWN AND FOG DEVELOPMENT...POSSIBLY
DENSE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVERNIGHT WITH THE FOG NOT BEING CONFINED TO THE VALLEYS.

THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. A RELATIVE LULL IN
PRECIP CHANCES IS EXPECTED BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING
INTO MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING MID LEVEL LOW
AND THE APPROACHING. IN THE WARM SECTOR...CONVECTION CANNOT BE
RULED OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH AND SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO
REMAIN RATHER FLAT WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY JUST TO THE NORTH OF ITS CORE. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MEANDER AROUND TO OUR NORTH THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT WILL NECESSITATE A
DAILY MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEVELOPING RIDGE. FORECAST HIGHS WERE
NUDGED UPWARD INTO THE MUGGY MID AND UPPER 80S TOWARD THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS IN THE
MORNING MODEL RUNS FOR A STRONGER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

ONLY A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN NEAR JKL AT THIS TIME AND EXPECT THOSE
TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ELSEWHERE...FOG HAS
ALREADY SET IN ACROSS THE REMAINING TAF SITES WITH IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT
BEFORE THE FOG BURNS OFF AROUND 14Z...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THEREAFTER. WITH CLEAR SKIES TOMORROW NIGHT...HAVE INCLUDED MVFR
CONDITIONS NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
ANOTHER FOGGY NIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR KYZ087-
088-107-109-110-112-113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...JVM




000
FXUS63 KJKL 060405 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1205 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1205 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A FEW AREAS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE TO SPIRAL IN FROM WEST
VIRGINIA...WHILE ANOTHER NEARLY STATIONARY BAND IS GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. HAVE FRESHENED UP
THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. WILL MAINTAIN POPS IN THE
EAST...HOWEVER GIVEN THE WEAKENING TREND...WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED
THUNDER FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ANY PERSISTENT MODERATE TO
HEAVY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING OVERNIGHT IN THE EAST...SO WILL KEEP THE WATCH GOING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT SUN
JUL 5 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SLOWLY PIVOTING AWAY FROM THE AREA.
CONVECTION HAS DWINDLED ACROSS OUR WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...AND
GIVEN THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND DIMINISHING FORCING THROUGH
TONIGHT...HAVE LET THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXPIRE ON TIME. TO THE
EAST...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND AN OCCASIONAL STORM WILL
STILL BE THREATENING THROUGH THE NIGHT. HAVE LEFT THE REST OF THE
WATCH AS IS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR ANY SLOW-
MOVING CELLS. FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW
POINTS...AND POPS TO MATCH THE CURRENT TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.
ALSO ALLOWED FOR A LITTLE MORE FOG GIVEN ALL OF THE RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SMALL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AS OF MID AFTERNOON...A MID LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY REGION. SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE BIG SANDY REGION AND IN THE SOMERSET VICINITY. THESE
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL RATES.

THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY MEANDER NORTHEAST THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT TOWARD THE NE KY/WESTERN WV/SOUTHERN OH AREA. THIS MID
LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY DEPART INTO THE MID AND UPPER OH VALLEY
REGIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME...A TROUGH
WILL MOVE FROM THE PLAINS STATES AND ENTER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND APPROACH THE LOWER OH VALLEY
REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD.

THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO AN OVERALL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TONIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. UNTIL THEN...SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL REMAIN A THREAT AND
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT AS IS AT THIS
POINT. SOME STRATUS BUILD DOWN AND FOG DEVELOPMENT...POSSIBLY
DENSE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVERNIGHT WITH THE FOG NOT BEING CONFINED TO THE VALLEYS.

THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. A RELATIVE LULL IN
PRECIP CHANCES IS EXPECTED BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING
INTO MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING MID LEVEL LOW
AND THE APPROACHING. IN THE WARM SECTOR...CONVECTION CANNOT BE
RULED OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH AND SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO
REMAIN RATHER FLAT WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY JUST TO THE NORTH OF ITS CORE. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MEANDER AROUND TO OUR NORTH THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT WILL NECESSITATE A
DAILY MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEVELOPING RIDGE. FORECAST HIGHS WERE
NUDGED UPWARD INTO THE MUGGY MID AND UPPER 80S TOWARD THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS IN THE
MORNING MODEL RUNS FOR A STRONGER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO THREATEN JKL AND SJS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. ANY DIRECT HIT FROM
A SHOWER OR STORM WILL RESULT IN TEMPORARY IFR OR WORSE
CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING...BEFORE IFR OR WORSE FOG LIKELY SETS IN. THE FOG
WILL BURN OFF BY AROUND 15Z MONDAY...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THEREAFTER.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR KYZ087-088-107-109-
110-112-113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN





000
FXUS63 KJKL 060405 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1205 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1205 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A FEW AREAS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE TO SPIRAL IN FROM WEST
VIRGINIA...WHILE ANOTHER NEARLY STATIONARY BAND IS GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. HAVE FRESHENED UP
THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. WILL MAINTAIN POPS IN THE
EAST...HOWEVER GIVEN THE WEAKENING TREND...WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED
THUNDER FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ANY PERSISTENT MODERATE TO
HEAVY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING OVERNIGHT IN THE EAST...SO WILL KEEP THE WATCH GOING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT SUN
JUL 5 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SLOWLY PIVOTING AWAY FROM THE AREA.
CONVECTION HAS DWINDLED ACROSS OUR WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...AND
GIVEN THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND DIMINISHING FORCING THROUGH
TONIGHT...HAVE LET THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXPIRE ON TIME. TO THE
EAST...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND AN OCCASIONAL STORM WILL
STILL BE THREATENING THROUGH THE NIGHT. HAVE LEFT THE REST OF THE
WATCH AS IS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR ANY SLOW-
MOVING CELLS. FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW
POINTS...AND POPS TO MATCH THE CURRENT TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.
ALSO ALLOWED FOR A LITTLE MORE FOG GIVEN ALL OF THE RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SMALL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AS OF MID AFTERNOON...A MID LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY REGION. SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE BIG SANDY REGION AND IN THE SOMERSET VICINITY. THESE
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL RATES.

THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY MEANDER NORTHEAST THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT TOWARD THE NE KY/WESTERN WV/SOUTHERN OH AREA. THIS MID
LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY DEPART INTO THE MID AND UPPER OH VALLEY
REGIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME...A TROUGH
WILL MOVE FROM THE PLAINS STATES AND ENTER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND APPROACH THE LOWER OH VALLEY
REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD.

THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO AN OVERALL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TONIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. UNTIL THEN...SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL REMAIN A THREAT AND
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT AS IS AT THIS
POINT. SOME STRATUS BUILD DOWN AND FOG DEVELOPMENT...POSSIBLY
DENSE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVERNIGHT WITH THE FOG NOT BEING CONFINED TO THE VALLEYS.

THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. A RELATIVE LULL IN
PRECIP CHANCES IS EXPECTED BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING
INTO MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING MID LEVEL LOW
AND THE APPROACHING. IN THE WARM SECTOR...CONVECTION CANNOT BE
RULED OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH AND SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO
REMAIN RATHER FLAT WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY JUST TO THE NORTH OF ITS CORE. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MEANDER AROUND TO OUR NORTH THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT WILL NECESSITATE A
DAILY MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEVELOPING RIDGE. FORECAST HIGHS WERE
NUDGED UPWARD INTO THE MUGGY MID AND UPPER 80S TOWARD THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS IN THE
MORNING MODEL RUNS FOR A STRONGER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO THREATEN JKL AND SJS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. ANY DIRECT HIT FROM
A SHOWER OR STORM WILL RESULT IN TEMPORARY IFR OR WORSE
CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING...BEFORE IFR OR WORSE FOG LIKELY SETS IN. THE FOG
WILL BURN OFF BY AROUND 15Z MONDAY...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THEREAFTER.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR KYZ087-088-107-109-
110-112-113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN




000
FXUS63 KJKL 060015 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
815 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SLOWLY PIVOTING AWAY FROM THE AREA.
CONVECTION HAS DWINDLED ACROSS OUR WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...AND
GIVEN THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND DIMINISHING FORCING THROUGH
TONIGHT...HAVE LET THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXPIRE ON TIME. TO THE
EAST...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND AN OCCASIONAL STORM WILL
STILL BE THREATENING THROUGH THE NIGHT. HAVE LEFT THE REST OF THE
WATCH AS IS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR ANY SLOW-
MOVING CELLS. FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW
POINTS...AND POPS TO MATCH THE CURRENT TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.
ALSO ALLOWED FOR A LITTLE MORE FOG GIVEN ALL OF THE RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SMALL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AS OF MID AFTERNOON...A MID LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY REGION. SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE BIG SANDY REGION AND IN THE SOMERSET VICINITY. THESE
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL RATES.

THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY MEANDER NORTHEAST THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT TOWARD THE NE KY/WESTERN WV/SOUTHERN OH AREA. THIS MID
LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY DEPART INTO THE MID AND UPPER OH VALLEY
REGIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME...A TROUGH
WILL MOVE FROM THE PLAINS STATES AND ENTER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND APPROACH THE LOWER OH VALLEY
REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD.

THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO AN OVERALL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TONIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. UNTIL THEN...SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL REMAIN A THREAT AND
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT AS IS AT THIS
POINT. SOME STRATUS BUILD DOWN AND FOG DEVELOPMENT...POSSIBLY
DENSE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVERNIGHT WITH THE FOG NOT BEING CONFINED TO THE VALLEYS.

THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. A RELATIVE LULL IN
PRECIP CHANCES IS EXPECTED BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING
INTO MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING MID LEVEL LOW
AND THE APPROACHING. IN THE WARM SECTOR...CONVECTION CANNOT BE
RULED OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH AND SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO
REMAIN RATHER FLAT WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY JUST TO THE NORTH OF ITS CORE. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MEANDER AROUND TO OUR NORTH THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT WILL NECESSITATE A
DAILY MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEVELOPING RIDGE. FORECAST HIGHS WERE
NUDGED UPWARD INTO THE MUGGY MID AND UPPER 80S TOWARD THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS IN THE
MORNING MODEL RUNS FOR A STRONGER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO THREATEN JKL AND SJS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. ANY DIRECT HIT FROM
A SHOWER OR STORM WILL RESULT IN TEMPORARY IFR OR WORSE
CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING...BEFORE IFR OR WORSE FOG LIKELY SETS IN. THE FOG
WILL BURN OFF BY AROUND 15Z MONDAY...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR KYZ087-088-107-109-
110-112-113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN





000
FXUS63 KJKL 060015 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
815 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SLOWLY PIVOTING AWAY FROM THE AREA.
CONVECTION HAS DWINDLED ACROSS OUR WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...AND
GIVEN THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND DIMINISHING FORCING THROUGH
TONIGHT...HAVE LET THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXPIRE ON TIME. TO THE
EAST...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND AN OCCASIONAL STORM WILL
STILL BE THREATENING THROUGH THE NIGHT. HAVE LEFT THE REST OF THE
WATCH AS IS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR ANY SLOW-
MOVING CELLS. FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW
POINTS...AND POPS TO MATCH THE CURRENT TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.
ALSO ALLOWED FOR A LITTLE MORE FOG GIVEN ALL OF THE RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SMALL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AS OF MID AFTERNOON...A MID LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY REGION. SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE BIG SANDY REGION AND IN THE SOMERSET VICINITY. THESE
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL RATES.

THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY MEANDER NORTHEAST THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT TOWARD THE NE KY/WESTERN WV/SOUTHERN OH AREA. THIS MID
LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY DEPART INTO THE MID AND UPPER OH VALLEY
REGIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME...A TROUGH
WILL MOVE FROM THE PLAINS STATES AND ENTER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND APPROACH THE LOWER OH VALLEY
REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD.

THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO AN OVERALL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TONIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. UNTIL THEN...SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL REMAIN A THREAT AND
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT AS IS AT THIS
POINT. SOME STRATUS BUILD DOWN AND FOG DEVELOPMENT...POSSIBLY
DENSE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVERNIGHT WITH THE FOG NOT BEING CONFINED TO THE VALLEYS.

THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. A RELATIVE LULL IN
PRECIP CHANCES IS EXPECTED BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING
INTO MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING MID LEVEL LOW
AND THE APPROACHING. IN THE WARM SECTOR...CONVECTION CANNOT BE
RULED OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH AND SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO
REMAIN RATHER FLAT WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY JUST TO THE NORTH OF ITS CORE. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MEANDER AROUND TO OUR NORTH THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT WILL NECESSITATE A
DAILY MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEVELOPING RIDGE. FORECAST HIGHS WERE
NUDGED UPWARD INTO THE MUGGY MID AND UPPER 80S TOWARD THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS IN THE
MORNING MODEL RUNS FOR A STRONGER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO THREATEN JKL AND SJS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. ANY DIRECT HIT FROM
A SHOWER OR STORM WILL RESULT IN TEMPORARY IFR OR WORSE
CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING...BEFORE IFR OR WORSE FOG LIKELY SETS IN. THE FOG
WILL BURN OFF BY AROUND 15Z MONDAY...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR KYZ087-088-107-109-
110-112-113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN




000
FXUS63 KJKL 051948
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
348 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AS OF MID AFTERNOON...A MID LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY REGION. SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE BIG SANDY REGION AND IN THE SOMERSET VICINITY. THESE
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL RATES.

THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY MEANDER NORTHEAST THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT TOWARD THE NE KY/WESTERN WV/SOUTHERN OH AREA. THIS MID
LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY DEPART INTO THE MID AND UPPER OH VALLEY
REGIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME...A TROUGH
WILL MOVE FROM THE PLAINS STATES AND ENTER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND APPROACH THE LOWER OH VALLEY
REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD.

THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO AN OVERALL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TONIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. UNTIL THEN...SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL REMAIN A THREAT AND
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT AS IS AT THIS
POINT. SOME STRATUS BUILD DOWN AND FOG DEVELOPMENT...POSSIBLY
DENSE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVERNIGHT WITH THE FOG NOT BEING CONFINED TO THE VALLEYS.

THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. A RELATIVE LULL IN
PRECIP CHANCES IS EXPECTED BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING
INTO MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING MID LEVEL LOW
AND THE APPROACHING. IN THE WARM SECTOR...CONVECTION CANNOT BE
RULED OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH AND SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO
REMAIN RATHER FLAT WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY JUST TO THE NORTH OF ITS CORE. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MEANDER AROUND TO OUR NORTH THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT WILL NECESSITATE A
DAILY MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEVELOPING RIDGE. FORECAST HIGHS WERE
NUDGED UPWARD INTO THE MUGGY MID AND UPPER 80S TOWARD THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS IN THE
MORNING MODEL RUNS FOR A STRONGER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONDITIONS WERE HIGHLY VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD...RANGING FROM IF TO VFR AT THE TAF SITES. THE BEST
CONDITIONS WERE GENERALLY ACROSS THE FAR NW AND IN BETWEEN BANDS
OF SHOWERS. BANDS OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS NEAR OR BELOW AIRPORT MINS
POSSIBLE THROUGH 0Z. COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...BUT STRATUS BUILD DOWN AND OR FOG
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD LEAD TO A FEW TO SEVERAL HOURS OF IFR AT THE
TAF SITES BETWEEN 5Z AND 13Z. CIGS SHOULD LIFT AND VIS IMPROVE FOR
MVFR TO VFR LATE IN THE PERIOD DUE TO DAYTIME MIXING AS THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM DEPARTS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-104-106-108-111-114-116.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ087-088-107-109-
110-112-113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KJKL 051948
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
348 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AS OF MID AFTERNOON...A MID LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY REGION. SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE BIG SANDY REGION AND IN THE SOMERSET VICINITY. THESE
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL RATES.

THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY MEANDER NORTHEAST THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT TOWARD THE NE KY/WESTERN WV/SOUTHERN OH AREA. THIS MID
LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY DEPART INTO THE MID AND UPPER OH VALLEY
REGIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME...A TROUGH
WILL MOVE FROM THE PLAINS STATES AND ENTER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND APPROACH THE LOWER OH VALLEY
REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD.

THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO AN OVERALL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TONIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. UNTIL THEN...SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL REMAIN A THREAT AND
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT AS IS AT THIS
POINT. SOME STRATUS BUILD DOWN AND FOG DEVELOPMENT...POSSIBLY
DENSE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVERNIGHT WITH THE FOG NOT BEING CONFINED TO THE VALLEYS.

THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. A RELATIVE LULL IN
PRECIP CHANCES IS EXPECTED BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING
INTO MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING MID LEVEL LOW
AND THE APPROACHING. IN THE WARM SECTOR...CONVECTION CANNOT BE
RULED OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH AND SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO
REMAIN RATHER FLAT WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY JUST TO THE NORTH OF ITS CORE. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MEANDER AROUND TO OUR NORTH THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT WILL NECESSITATE A
DAILY MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEVELOPING RIDGE. FORECAST HIGHS WERE
NUDGED UPWARD INTO THE MUGGY MID AND UPPER 80S TOWARD THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS IN THE
MORNING MODEL RUNS FOR A STRONGER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONDITIONS WERE HIGHLY VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD...RANGING FROM IF TO VFR AT THE TAF SITES. THE BEST
CONDITIONS WERE GENERALLY ACROSS THE FAR NW AND IN BETWEEN BANDS
OF SHOWERS. BANDS OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS NEAR OR BELOW AIRPORT MINS
POSSIBLE THROUGH 0Z. COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...BUT STRATUS BUILD DOWN AND OR FOG
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD LEAD TO A FEW TO SEVERAL HOURS OF IFR AT THE
TAF SITES BETWEEN 5Z AND 13Z. CIGS SHOULD LIFT AND VIS IMPROVE FOR
MVFR TO VFR LATE IN THE PERIOD DUE TO DAYTIME MIXING AS THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM DEPARTS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-104-106-108-111-114-116.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ087-088-107-109-
110-112-113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...JP





000
FXUS63 KJKL 051900
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
300 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 115 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY REGION
AND CONTINUES TO MEANDER NORTHEAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN REGION.
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS EAST
KY AND ADJACENT AREAS OF EASTERN TN AND SW VA. THE SOUTHEAST PART
OF THE REGION HAS HAD AN OPPORTUNITY TO WARM WHERE THE LOW CLOUDS
BROKE INTO THE 70S. THE STRONGER CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
OCCUR ACROSS THAT REGION. ANY LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE MULTIPLE
STRONGER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL RUN THE RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING DUE TO RATHER LOW FFG VALUES AT PRESENT FOLLOWING THE
RECENT WET PERIOD OF THE LAST ONE TO TWO WEEKS. THIS FFA CONTINUES
UNTIL THE EVENING ACROSS THE WEST AND LINGERS INTO TONIGHT ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS TIMING STILL LOOKS REASONABLE ATTM.

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON RECENT RADAR AND
OBSERVATION TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1055 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LAKE
CUMBERLAND REGION. BANDS OF SLOW MOVING SHOWERS WITH DECENT
RAINFALL RATES ARE ROTATING AROUND IT. A FEW LOCATIONS NEAR THE
MTN PARKWAY CORRIDOR HAVE PICKED UP 1 TO 2 INCHES SINCE SUNRISE.
THE INITIAL BAND/DEFORMATION ZONE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS HAS MOVED
NORTH TO NEAR THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR AND GRADUALLY WEAKENED.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND OVER PARTS
OF EAST TN. SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUDS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTER COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL RATES TO DEVELOP. LOCATIONS THAT
EXPERIENCE MULTIPLE OF PERSISTENT SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL RUN THE
RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AS THE GROUND IS SATURATED OR NEARLY
SATURATED IN MOST AREAS DUE TO THE WET WEATHER OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF WEEKS.

ATTM..WE OPTED TO EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH NORTH TO INCLUDE
ALL BUT FLEMING COUNTY WHICH AS GENERALLY BE DRIER THAN THE REST
OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE TO NEAR THE OH/WV BORDER BY MONDAY
EVENING. THE SYSTEM HAS A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE UNDER IT ALONG
WITH WEAK INSTABILITY. THIS IS RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WERE SPREADING NORTH INTO THE REGION DURING
SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY...AND THEN EXIT TO THE EAST LATE TODAY INTO MONDAY
AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS. THE GREATEST PRECIP IS EXPECTED IN THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE JKL FORECAST AREA...WITH
THE LOWEST POP IN THE NW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING TALL THIN
CAPE...HIGH PW/NEARLY SATURATED COLUMN...AND WEAK STEERING
CURRENTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR EFFICIENT PRODUCTION OF RAIN. WITH
THE GROUND ALREADY WET IN MOST PLACES...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES IN OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES UNTIL THE
THREAT OF PRECIP DIMINISHES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH AND SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO
REMAIN RATHER FLAT WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY JUST TO THE NORTH OF ITS CORE. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MEANDER AROUND TO OUR NORTH THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT WILL NECESSITATE A
DAILY MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEVELOPING RIDGE. FORECAST HIGHS WERE
NUDGED UPWARD INTO THE MUGGY MID AND UPPER 80S TOWARD THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS IN THE
MORNING MODEL RUNS FOR A STRONGER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONDITIONS WERE HIGHLY VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD...RANGING FROM IF TO VFR AT THE TAF SITES. THE BEST
CONDITIONS WERE GENERALLY ACROSS THE FAR NW AND IN BETWEEN BANDS
OF SHOWERS. BANDS OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS NEAR OR BELOW AIRPORT MINS
POSSIBLE THROUGH 0Z. COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...BUT STRATUS BUILD DOWN AND OR FOG
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD LEAD TO A FEW TO SEVERAL HOURS OF IFR AT THE
TAF SITES BETWEEN 5Z AND 13Z. CIGS SHOULD LIFT AND VIS IMPROVE FOR
MVFR TO VFR LATE IN THE PERIOD DUE TO DAYTIME MIXING AS THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM DEPARTS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-104-106-108-111-114-116.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ087-088-107-109-
110-112-113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...JP





000
FXUS63 KJKL 051900
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
300 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 115 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY REGION
AND CONTINUES TO MEANDER NORTHEAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN REGION.
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS EAST
KY AND ADJACENT AREAS OF EASTERN TN AND SW VA. THE SOUTHEAST PART
OF THE REGION HAS HAD AN OPPORTUNITY TO WARM WHERE THE LOW CLOUDS
BROKE INTO THE 70S. THE STRONGER CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
OCCUR ACROSS THAT REGION. ANY LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE MULTIPLE
STRONGER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL RUN THE RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING DUE TO RATHER LOW FFG VALUES AT PRESENT FOLLOWING THE
RECENT WET PERIOD OF THE LAST ONE TO TWO WEEKS. THIS FFA CONTINUES
UNTIL THE EVENING ACROSS THE WEST AND LINGERS INTO TONIGHT ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS TIMING STILL LOOKS REASONABLE ATTM.

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON RECENT RADAR AND
OBSERVATION TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1055 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LAKE
CUMBERLAND REGION. BANDS OF SLOW MOVING SHOWERS WITH DECENT
RAINFALL RATES ARE ROTATING AROUND IT. A FEW LOCATIONS NEAR THE
MTN PARKWAY CORRIDOR HAVE PICKED UP 1 TO 2 INCHES SINCE SUNRISE.
THE INITIAL BAND/DEFORMATION ZONE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS HAS MOVED
NORTH TO NEAR THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR AND GRADUALLY WEAKENED.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND OVER PARTS
OF EAST TN. SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUDS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTER COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL RATES TO DEVELOP. LOCATIONS THAT
EXPERIENCE MULTIPLE OF PERSISTENT SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL RUN THE
RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AS THE GROUND IS SATURATED OR NEARLY
SATURATED IN MOST AREAS DUE TO THE WET WEATHER OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF WEEKS.

ATTM..WE OPTED TO EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH NORTH TO INCLUDE
ALL BUT FLEMING COUNTY WHICH AS GENERALLY BE DRIER THAN THE REST
OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE TO NEAR THE OH/WV BORDER BY MONDAY
EVENING. THE SYSTEM HAS A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE UNDER IT ALONG
WITH WEAK INSTABILITY. THIS IS RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WERE SPREADING NORTH INTO THE REGION DURING
SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY...AND THEN EXIT TO THE EAST LATE TODAY INTO MONDAY
AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS. THE GREATEST PRECIP IS EXPECTED IN THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE JKL FORECAST AREA...WITH
THE LOWEST POP IN THE NW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING TALL THIN
CAPE...HIGH PW/NEARLY SATURATED COLUMN...AND WEAK STEERING
CURRENTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR EFFICIENT PRODUCTION OF RAIN. WITH
THE GROUND ALREADY WET IN MOST PLACES...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES IN OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES UNTIL THE
THREAT OF PRECIP DIMINISHES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH AND SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO
REMAIN RATHER FLAT WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY JUST TO THE NORTH OF ITS CORE. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MEANDER AROUND TO OUR NORTH THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT WILL NECESSITATE A
DAILY MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEVELOPING RIDGE. FORECAST HIGHS WERE
NUDGED UPWARD INTO THE MUGGY MID AND UPPER 80S TOWARD THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS IN THE
MORNING MODEL RUNS FOR A STRONGER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONDITIONS WERE HIGHLY VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD...RANGING FROM IF TO VFR AT THE TAF SITES. THE BEST
CONDITIONS WERE GENERALLY ACROSS THE FAR NW AND IN BETWEEN BANDS
OF SHOWERS. BANDS OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS NEAR OR BELOW AIRPORT MINS
POSSIBLE THROUGH 0Z. COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...BUT STRATUS BUILD DOWN AND OR FOG
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD LEAD TO A FEW TO SEVERAL HOURS OF IFR AT THE
TAF SITES BETWEEN 5Z AND 13Z. CIGS SHOULD LIFT AND VIS IMPROVE FOR
MVFR TO VFR LATE IN THE PERIOD DUE TO DAYTIME MIXING AS THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM DEPARTS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-104-106-108-111-114-116.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ087-088-107-109-
110-112-113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KJKL 051900
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
300 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 115 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY REGION
AND CONTINUES TO MEANDER NORTHEAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN REGION.
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS EAST
KY AND ADJACENT AREAS OF EASTERN TN AND SW VA. THE SOUTHEAST PART
OF THE REGION HAS HAD AN OPPORTUNITY TO WARM WHERE THE LOW CLOUDS
BROKE INTO THE 70S. THE STRONGER CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
OCCUR ACROSS THAT REGION. ANY LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE MULTIPLE
STRONGER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL RUN THE RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING DUE TO RATHER LOW FFG VALUES AT PRESENT FOLLOWING THE
RECENT WET PERIOD OF THE LAST ONE TO TWO WEEKS. THIS FFA CONTINUES
UNTIL THE EVENING ACROSS THE WEST AND LINGERS INTO TONIGHT ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS TIMING STILL LOOKS REASONABLE ATTM.

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON RECENT RADAR AND
OBSERVATION TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1055 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LAKE
CUMBERLAND REGION. BANDS OF SLOW MOVING SHOWERS WITH DECENT
RAINFALL RATES ARE ROTATING AROUND IT. A FEW LOCATIONS NEAR THE
MTN PARKWAY CORRIDOR HAVE PICKED UP 1 TO 2 INCHES SINCE SUNRISE.
THE INITIAL BAND/DEFORMATION ZONE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS HAS MOVED
NORTH TO NEAR THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR AND GRADUALLY WEAKENED.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND OVER PARTS
OF EAST TN. SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUDS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTER COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL RATES TO DEVELOP. LOCATIONS THAT
EXPERIENCE MULTIPLE OF PERSISTENT SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL RUN THE
RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AS THE GROUND IS SATURATED OR NEARLY
SATURATED IN MOST AREAS DUE TO THE WET WEATHER OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF WEEKS.

ATTM..WE OPTED TO EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH NORTH TO INCLUDE
ALL BUT FLEMING COUNTY WHICH AS GENERALLY BE DRIER THAN THE REST
OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE TO NEAR THE OH/WV BORDER BY MONDAY
EVENING. THE SYSTEM HAS A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE UNDER IT ALONG
WITH WEAK INSTABILITY. THIS IS RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WERE SPREADING NORTH INTO THE REGION DURING
SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY...AND THEN EXIT TO THE EAST LATE TODAY INTO MONDAY
AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS. THE GREATEST PRECIP IS EXPECTED IN THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE JKL FORECAST AREA...WITH
THE LOWEST POP IN THE NW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING TALL THIN
CAPE...HIGH PW/NEARLY SATURATED COLUMN...AND WEAK STEERING
CURRENTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR EFFICIENT PRODUCTION OF RAIN. WITH
THE GROUND ALREADY WET IN MOST PLACES...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES IN OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES UNTIL THE
THREAT OF PRECIP DIMINISHES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH AND SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO
REMAIN RATHER FLAT WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY JUST TO THE NORTH OF ITS CORE. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MEANDER AROUND TO OUR NORTH THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT WILL NECESSITATE A
DAILY MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEVELOPING RIDGE. FORECAST HIGHS WERE
NUDGED UPWARD INTO THE MUGGY MID AND UPPER 80S TOWARD THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS IN THE
MORNING MODEL RUNS FOR A STRONGER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONDITIONS WERE HIGHLY VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD...RANGING FROM IF TO VFR AT THE TAF SITES. THE BEST
CONDITIONS WERE GENERALLY ACROSS THE FAR NW AND IN BETWEEN BANDS
OF SHOWERS. BANDS OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS NEAR OR BELOW AIRPORT MINS
POSSIBLE THROUGH 0Z. COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...BUT STRATUS BUILD DOWN AND OR FOG
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD LEAD TO A FEW TO SEVERAL HOURS OF IFR AT THE
TAF SITES BETWEEN 5Z AND 13Z. CIGS SHOULD LIFT AND VIS IMPROVE FOR
MVFR TO VFR LATE IN THE PERIOD DUE TO DAYTIME MIXING AS THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM DEPARTS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-104-106-108-111-114-116.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ087-088-107-109-
110-112-113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...JP





000
FXUS63 KJKL 051900
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
300 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 115 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY REGION
AND CONTINUES TO MEANDER NORTHEAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN REGION.
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS EAST
KY AND ADJACENT AREAS OF EASTERN TN AND SW VA. THE SOUTHEAST PART
OF THE REGION HAS HAD AN OPPORTUNITY TO WARM WHERE THE LOW CLOUDS
BROKE INTO THE 70S. THE STRONGER CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
OCCUR ACROSS THAT REGION. ANY LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE MULTIPLE
STRONGER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL RUN THE RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING DUE TO RATHER LOW FFG VALUES AT PRESENT FOLLOWING THE
RECENT WET PERIOD OF THE LAST ONE TO TWO WEEKS. THIS FFA CONTINUES
UNTIL THE EVENING ACROSS THE WEST AND LINGERS INTO TONIGHT ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS TIMING STILL LOOKS REASONABLE ATTM.

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON RECENT RADAR AND
OBSERVATION TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1055 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LAKE
CUMBERLAND REGION. BANDS OF SLOW MOVING SHOWERS WITH DECENT
RAINFALL RATES ARE ROTATING AROUND IT. A FEW LOCATIONS NEAR THE
MTN PARKWAY CORRIDOR HAVE PICKED UP 1 TO 2 INCHES SINCE SUNRISE.
THE INITIAL BAND/DEFORMATION ZONE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS HAS MOVED
NORTH TO NEAR THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR AND GRADUALLY WEAKENED.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND OVER PARTS
OF EAST TN. SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUDS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTER COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL RATES TO DEVELOP. LOCATIONS THAT
EXPERIENCE MULTIPLE OF PERSISTENT SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL RUN THE
RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AS THE GROUND IS SATURATED OR NEARLY
SATURATED IN MOST AREAS DUE TO THE WET WEATHER OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF WEEKS.

ATTM..WE OPTED TO EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH NORTH TO INCLUDE
ALL BUT FLEMING COUNTY WHICH AS GENERALLY BE DRIER THAN THE REST
OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE TO NEAR THE OH/WV BORDER BY MONDAY
EVENING. THE SYSTEM HAS A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE UNDER IT ALONG
WITH WEAK INSTABILITY. THIS IS RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WERE SPREADING NORTH INTO THE REGION DURING
SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY...AND THEN EXIT TO THE EAST LATE TODAY INTO MONDAY
AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS. THE GREATEST PRECIP IS EXPECTED IN THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE JKL FORECAST AREA...WITH
THE LOWEST POP IN THE NW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING TALL THIN
CAPE...HIGH PW/NEARLY SATURATED COLUMN...AND WEAK STEERING
CURRENTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR EFFICIENT PRODUCTION OF RAIN. WITH
THE GROUND ALREADY WET IN MOST PLACES...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES IN OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES UNTIL THE
THREAT OF PRECIP DIMINISHES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH AND SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO
REMAIN RATHER FLAT WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY JUST TO THE NORTH OF ITS CORE. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MEANDER AROUND TO OUR NORTH THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT WILL NECESSITATE A
DAILY MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEVELOPING RIDGE. FORECAST HIGHS WERE
NUDGED UPWARD INTO THE MUGGY MID AND UPPER 80S TOWARD THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS IN THE
MORNING MODEL RUNS FOR A STRONGER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONDITIONS WERE HIGHLY VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD...RANGING FROM IF TO VFR AT THE TAF SITES. THE BEST
CONDITIONS WERE GENERALLY ACROSS THE FAR NW AND IN BETWEEN BANDS
OF SHOWERS. BANDS OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS NEAR OR BELOW AIRPORT MINS
POSSIBLE THROUGH 0Z. COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...BUT STRATUS BUILD DOWN AND OR FOG
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD LEAD TO A FEW TO SEVERAL HOURS OF IFR AT THE
TAF SITES BETWEEN 5Z AND 13Z. CIGS SHOULD LIFT AND VIS IMPROVE FOR
MVFR TO VFR LATE IN THE PERIOD DUE TO DAYTIME MIXING AS THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM DEPARTS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-104-106-108-111-114-116.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ087-088-107-109-
110-112-113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KJKL 051727 AAD
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
127 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 115 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY REGION
AND CONTINUES TO MEANDER NORTHEAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN REGION.
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS EAST
KY AND ADJACENT AREAS OF EASTERN TN AND SW VA. THE SOUTHEAST PART
OF THE REGION HAS HAD AN OPPORTUNITY TO WARM WHERE THE LOW CLOUDS
BROKE INTO THE 70S. THE STRONGER CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
OCCUR ACROSS THAT REGION. ANY LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE MULTIPLE
STRONGER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL RUN THE RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING DUE TO RATHER LOW FFG VALUES AT PRESENT FOLLOWING THE
RECENT WET PERIOD OF THE LAST ONE TO TWO WEEKS. THIS FFA CONTINUES
UNTIL THE EVENING ACROSS THE WEST AND LINGERS INTO TONIGHT ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS TIMING STILL LOOKS REASONABLE ATTM.

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON RECENT RADAR AND
OBSERVATION TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1055 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LAKE
CUMBERLAND REGION. BANDS OF SLOW MOVING SHOWERS WITH DECENT
RAINFALL RATES ARE ROTATING AROUND IT. A FEW LOCATIONS NEAR THE
MTN PARKWAY CORRIDOR HAVE PICKED UP 1 TO 2 INCHES SINCE SUNRISE.
THE INITIAL BAND/DEFORMATION ZONE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS HAS MOVED
NORTH TO NEAR THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR AND GRADUALLY WEAKENED.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND OVER PARTS
OF EAST TN. SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUDS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTER COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL RATES TO DEVELOP. LOCATIONS THAT
EXPERIENCE MULTIPLE OF PERSISTENT SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL RUN THE
RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AS THE GROUND IS SATURATED OR NEARLY
SATURATED IN MOST AREAS DUE TO THE WET WEATHER OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF WEEKS.

ATTM..WE OPTED TO EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH NORTH TO INCLUDE
ALL BUT FLEMING COUNTY WHICH AS GENERALLY BE DRIER THAN THE REST
OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE TO NEAR THE OH/WV BORDER BY MONDAY
EVENING. THE SYSTEM HAS A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE UNDER IT ALONG
WITH WEAK INSTABILITY. THIS IS RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WERE SPREADING NORTH INTO THE REGION DURING
SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY...AND THEN EXIT TO THE EAST LATE TODAY INTO MONDAY
AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS. THE GREATEST PRECIP IS EXPECTED IN THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE JKL FORECAST AREA...WITH
THE LOWEST POP IN THE NW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING TALL THIN
CAPE...HIGH PW/NEARLY SATURATED COLUMN...AND WEAK STEERING
CURRENTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR EFFICIENT PRODUCTION OF RAIN. WITH
THE GROUND ALREADY WET IN MOST PLACES...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES IN OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES UNTIL THE
THREAT OF PRECIP DIMINISHES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE PERIOD BEGINS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW EXITS THE REGION TO THE
NORTHEAST AND GETS EMBEDDED INTO A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. EXTENDING FROM THIS TROUGH IS A SFC BOUNDARY THAT WILL
MOVE INTO THE OH VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO RISE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WILL KEEP THE SFC BOUNDARY GENERALLY STALLED OUT
OVER THE OH VALLEY AND/OR EASTERN KENTUCKY AS IT SLOWLY SAGS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
RIDGE AND THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL DURING NEXT WEEK SO HAVE STAYED
CLOSE TO THE CR SUPERBLEND WITH POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE UNSETTLED AND WET ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EVERY DAY. THIS
WILL INCLUDE A THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT SEE REPEATED/EXCESSIVE DAYS OF RAIN.
POPS HAVE A GENERAL DIURNAL TREND FOR THE PERIOD...EVEN THOUGH
CANNOT RULE OUT SHOWERS/STORMS AT ANY TIME DUE TO THE NATURE OF THE
STALLED SFC BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY JUST A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...IN THE LOW 80S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD WITH MILD
LOWS IN THE MID 60S. BUT AS HEIGHTS RISE NEXT WEEK...TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE EACH DAY AND MIGHT ACTUALLY TOP OUT ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONDITIONS WERE HIGHLY VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD...RANGING FROM IF TO VFR AT THE TAF SITES. THE BEST
CONDITIONS WERE GENERALLY ACROSS THE FAR NW AND IN BETWEEN BANDS
OF SHOWERS. BANDS OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS NEAR OR BELOW AIRPORT MINS
POSSIBLE THROUGH 0Z. COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...BUT STRATUS BUILD DOWN AND OR FOG
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD LEAD TO A FEW TO SEVERAL HOURS OF IFR AT THE
TAF SITES BETWEEN 5Z AND 13Z. CIGS SHOULD LIFT AND VIS IMPROVE FOR
MVFR TO VFR LATE IN THE PERIOD DUE TO DAYTIME MIXING AS THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM DEPARTS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-104-106-108-111-114-116.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ087-088-107-109-
110-112-113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KJKL 051727 AAD
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
127 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 115 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY REGION
AND CONTINUES TO MEANDER NORTHEAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN REGION.
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS EAST
KY AND ADJACENT AREAS OF EASTERN TN AND SW VA. THE SOUTHEAST PART
OF THE REGION HAS HAD AN OPPORTUNITY TO WARM WHERE THE LOW CLOUDS
BROKE INTO THE 70S. THE STRONGER CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
OCCUR ACROSS THAT REGION. ANY LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE MULTIPLE
STRONGER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL RUN THE RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING DUE TO RATHER LOW FFG VALUES AT PRESENT FOLLOWING THE
RECENT WET PERIOD OF THE LAST ONE TO TWO WEEKS. THIS FFA CONTINUES
UNTIL THE EVENING ACROSS THE WEST AND LINGERS INTO TONIGHT ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS TIMING STILL LOOKS REASONABLE ATTM.

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON RECENT RADAR AND
OBSERVATION TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1055 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LAKE
CUMBERLAND REGION. BANDS OF SLOW MOVING SHOWERS WITH DECENT
RAINFALL RATES ARE ROTATING AROUND IT. A FEW LOCATIONS NEAR THE
MTN PARKWAY CORRIDOR HAVE PICKED UP 1 TO 2 INCHES SINCE SUNRISE.
THE INITIAL BAND/DEFORMATION ZONE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS HAS MOVED
NORTH TO NEAR THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR AND GRADUALLY WEAKENED.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND OVER PARTS
OF EAST TN. SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUDS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTER COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL RATES TO DEVELOP. LOCATIONS THAT
EXPERIENCE MULTIPLE OF PERSISTENT SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL RUN THE
RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AS THE GROUND IS SATURATED OR NEARLY
SATURATED IN MOST AREAS DUE TO THE WET WEATHER OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF WEEKS.

ATTM..WE OPTED TO EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH NORTH TO INCLUDE
ALL BUT FLEMING COUNTY WHICH AS GENERALLY BE DRIER THAN THE REST
OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE TO NEAR THE OH/WV BORDER BY MONDAY
EVENING. THE SYSTEM HAS A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE UNDER IT ALONG
WITH WEAK INSTABILITY. THIS IS RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WERE SPREADING NORTH INTO THE REGION DURING
SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY...AND THEN EXIT TO THE EAST LATE TODAY INTO MONDAY
AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS. THE GREATEST PRECIP IS EXPECTED IN THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE JKL FORECAST AREA...WITH
THE LOWEST POP IN THE NW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING TALL THIN
CAPE...HIGH PW/NEARLY SATURATED COLUMN...AND WEAK STEERING
CURRENTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR EFFICIENT PRODUCTION OF RAIN. WITH
THE GROUND ALREADY WET IN MOST PLACES...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES IN OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES UNTIL THE
THREAT OF PRECIP DIMINISHES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE PERIOD BEGINS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW EXITS THE REGION TO THE
NORTHEAST AND GETS EMBEDDED INTO A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. EXTENDING FROM THIS TROUGH IS A SFC BOUNDARY THAT WILL
MOVE INTO THE OH VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO RISE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WILL KEEP THE SFC BOUNDARY GENERALLY STALLED OUT
OVER THE OH VALLEY AND/OR EASTERN KENTUCKY AS IT SLOWLY SAGS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
RIDGE AND THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL DURING NEXT WEEK SO HAVE STAYED
CLOSE TO THE CR SUPERBLEND WITH POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE UNSETTLED AND WET ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EVERY DAY. THIS
WILL INCLUDE A THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT SEE REPEATED/EXCESSIVE DAYS OF RAIN.
POPS HAVE A GENERAL DIURNAL TREND FOR THE PERIOD...EVEN THOUGH
CANNOT RULE OUT SHOWERS/STORMS AT ANY TIME DUE TO THE NATURE OF THE
STALLED SFC BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY JUST A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...IN THE LOW 80S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD WITH MILD
LOWS IN THE MID 60S. BUT AS HEIGHTS RISE NEXT WEEK...TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE EACH DAY AND MIGHT ACTUALLY TOP OUT ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONDITIONS WERE HIGHLY VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD...RANGING FROM IF TO VFR AT THE TAF SITES. THE BEST
CONDITIONS WERE GENERALLY ACROSS THE FAR NW AND IN BETWEEN BANDS
OF SHOWERS. BANDS OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS NEAR OR BELOW AIRPORT MINS
POSSIBLE THROUGH 0Z. COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...BUT STRATUS BUILD DOWN AND OR FOG
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD LEAD TO A FEW TO SEVERAL HOURS OF IFR AT THE
TAF SITES BETWEEN 5Z AND 13Z. CIGS SHOULD LIFT AND VIS IMPROVE FOR
MVFR TO VFR LATE IN THE PERIOD DUE TO DAYTIME MIXING AS THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM DEPARTS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-104-106-108-111-114-116.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ087-088-107-109-
110-112-113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KJKL 051455 AAB
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1055 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1055 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LAKE
CUMBERLAND REGION. BANDS OF SLOW MOVING SHOWERS WITH DECENT
RAINFALL RATES ARE ROTATING AROUND IT. A FEW LOCATIONS NEAR THE
MTN PARKWAY CORRIDOR HAVE PICKED UP 1 TO 2 INCHES SINCE SUNRISE.
THE INITIAL BAND/DEFORMATION ZONE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS HAS MOVED
NORTH TO NEAR THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR AND GRADUALLY WEAKENED.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND OVER PARTS
OF EAST TN. SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUDS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTER COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL RATES TO DEVELOP. LOCATIONS THAT
EXPERIENCE MULTIPLE OF PERSISTENT SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL RUN THE
RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AS THE GROUND IS SATURATED OR NEARLY
SATURATED IN MOST AREAS DUE TO THE WET WEATHER OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF WEEKS.

ATTM..WE OPTED TO EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH NORTH TO INCLUDE
ALL BUT FLEMING COUNTY WHICH AS GENERALLY BE DRIER THAN THE REST
OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE TO NEAR THE OH/WV BORDER BY MONDAY
EVENING. THE SYSTEM HAS A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE UNDER IT ALONG
WITH WEAK INSTABILITY. THIS IS RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WERE SPREADING NORTH INTO THE REGION DURING
SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY...AND THEN EXIT TO THE EAST LATE TODAY INTO MONDAY
AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS. THE GREATEST PRECIP IS EXPECTED IN THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE JKL FORECAST AREA...WITH
THE LOWEST POP IN THE NW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING TALL THIN
CAPE...HIGH PW/NEARLY SATURATED COLUMN...AND WEAK STEERING
CURRENTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR EFFICIENT PRODUCTION OF RAIN. WITH
THE GROUND ALREADY WET IN MOST PLACES...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES IN OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES UNTIL THE
THREAT OF PRECIP DIMINISHES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE PERIOD BEGINS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW EXITS THE REGION TO THE
NORTHEAST AND GETS EMBEDDED INTO A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. EXTENDING FROM THIS TROUGH IS A SFC BOUNDARY THAT WILL
MOVE INTO THE OH VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO RISE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WILL KEEP THE SFC BOUNDARY GENERALLY STALLED OUT
OVER THE OH VALLEY AND/OR EASTERN KENTUCKY AS IT SLOWLY SAGS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
RIDGE AND THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL DURING NEXT WEEK SO HAVE STAYED
CLOSE TO THE CR SUPERBLEND WITH POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE UNSETTLED AND WET ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EVERY DAY. THIS
WILL INCLUDE A THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT SEE REPEATED/EXCESSIVE DAYS OF RAIN.
POPS HAVE A GENERAL DIURNAL TREND FOR THE PERIOD...EVEN THOUGH
CANNOT RULE OUT SHOWERS/STORMS AT ANY TIME DUE TO THE NATURE OF THE
STALLED SFC BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY JUST A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...IN THE LOW 80S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD WITH MILD
LOWS IN THE MID 60S. BUT AS HEIGHTS RISE NEXT WEEK...TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE EACH DAY AND MIGHT ACTUALLY TOP OUT ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONDITIONS WERE HIGHLY VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD...RANGING FROM LIFR TO VFR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WERE OCCURRING NEAR THE TN BORDER. WIDELY VARYING CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT...AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD
SLOWLY TO THE NE. PRECIPITATION AND SUB VFR SHOULD CONTINUE OVER
SE KY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF IN THE
VICINITY OF KSME AND KLOZ BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-104-106-108-111-114-116.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ087-088-107-109-
110-112-113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...HAL





000
FXUS63 KJKL 051455 AAB
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1055 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1055 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LAKE
CUMBERLAND REGION. BANDS OF SLOW MOVING SHOWERS WITH DECENT
RAINFALL RATES ARE ROTATING AROUND IT. A FEW LOCATIONS NEAR THE
MTN PARKWAY CORRIDOR HAVE PICKED UP 1 TO 2 INCHES SINCE SUNRISE.
THE INITIAL BAND/DEFORMATION ZONE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS HAS MOVED
NORTH TO NEAR THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR AND GRADUALLY WEAKENED.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND OVER PARTS
OF EAST TN. SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUDS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTER COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL RATES TO DEVELOP. LOCATIONS THAT
EXPERIENCE MULTIPLE OF PERSISTENT SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL RUN THE
RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AS THE GROUND IS SATURATED OR NEARLY
SATURATED IN MOST AREAS DUE TO THE WET WEATHER OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF WEEKS.

ATTM..WE OPTED TO EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH NORTH TO INCLUDE
ALL BUT FLEMING COUNTY WHICH AS GENERALLY BE DRIER THAN THE REST
OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE TO NEAR THE OH/WV BORDER BY MONDAY
EVENING. THE SYSTEM HAS A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE UNDER IT ALONG
WITH WEAK INSTABILITY. THIS IS RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WERE SPREADING NORTH INTO THE REGION DURING
SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY...AND THEN EXIT TO THE EAST LATE TODAY INTO MONDAY
AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS. THE GREATEST PRECIP IS EXPECTED IN THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE JKL FORECAST AREA...WITH
THE LOWEST POP IN THE NW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING TALL THIN
CAPE...HIGH PW/NEARLY SATURATED COLUMN...AND WEAK STEERING
CURRENTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR EFFICIENT PRODUCTION OF RAIN. WITH
THE GROUND ALREADY WET IN MOST PLACES...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES IN OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES UNTIL THE
THREAT OF PRECIP DIMINISHES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE PERIOD BEGINS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW EXITS THE REGION TO THE
NORTHEAST AND GETS EMBEDDED INTO A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. EXTENDING FROM THIS TROUGH IS A SFC BOUNDARY THAT WILL
MOVE INTO THE OH VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO RISE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WILL KEEP THE SFC BOUNDARY GENERALLY STALLED OUT
OVER THE OH VALLEY AND/OR EASTERN KENTUCKY AS IT SLOWLY SAGS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
RIDGE AND THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL DURING NEXT WEEK SO HAVE STAYED
CLOSE TO THE CR SUPERBLEND WITH POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE UNSETTLED AND WET ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EVERY DAY. THIS
WILL INCLUDE A THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT SEE REPEATED/EXCESSIVE DAYS OF RAIN.
POPS HAVE A GENERAL DIURNAL TREND FOR THE PERIOD...EVEN THOUGH
CANNOT RULE OUT SHOWERS/STORMS AT ANY TIME DUE TO THE NATURE OF THE
STALLED SFC BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY JUST A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...IN THE LOW 80S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD WITH MILD
LOWS IN THE MID 60S. BUT AS HEIGHTS RISE NEXT WEEK...TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE EACH DAY AND MIGHT ACTUALLY TOP OUT ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONDITIONS WERE HIGHLY VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD...RANGING FROM LIFR TO VFR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WERE OCCURRING NEAR THE TN BORDER. WIDELY VARYING CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT...AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD
SLOWLY TO THE NE. PRECIPITATION AND SUB VFR SHOULD CONTINUE OVER
SE KY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF IN THE
VICINITY OF KSME AND KLOZ BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-104-106-108-111-114-116.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ087-088-107-109-
110-112-113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...HAL




000
FXUS63 KJKL 050818
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
418 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE TO NEAR THE OH/WV BORDER BY MONDAY
EVENING. THE SYSTEM HAS A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE UNDER IT ALONG
WITH WEAK INSTABILITY. THIS IS RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WERE SPREADING NORTH INTO THE REGION DURING
SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPATION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY...AND THEN EXIT TO THE EAST LATE TODAY INTO MONDAY
AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS. THE GREATEST PRECIP IS EXPECTED IN THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE JKL FORECAST AREA...WITH
THE LOWEST POP IN THE NW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING TALL THIN
CAPE...HIGH PW/NEARLY SATURATED COLUMN...AND WEAK STEERING
CURRENTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR EFFICIENT PRODUCTION OF RAIN. WITH
THE GROUND ALREADY WET IN MOST PLACES...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES IN OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES UNTIL THE
THREAT OF PRECIP DIMINISHES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE PERIOD BEGINS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW EXITS THE REGION TO THE
NORTHEAST AND GETS EMBEDDED INTO A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. EXTENDING FROM THIS TROUGH IS A SFC BOUNDARY THAT WILL
MOVE INTO THE OH VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO RISE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WILL KEEP THE SFC BOUNDARY GENERALLY STALLED OUT
OVER THE OH VALLEY AND/OR EASTERN KENTUCKY AS IT SLOWLY SAGS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
RIDGE AND THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL DURING NEXT WEEK SO HAVE STAYED
CLOSE TO THE CR SUPERBLEND WITH POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE UNSETTLED AND WET ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EVERY DAY. THIS
WILL INCLUDE A THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT SEE REPEATED/EXCESSIVE DAYS OF RAIN.
POPS HAVE A GENERAL DIURNAL TREND FOR THE PERIOD...EVEN THOUGH
CANNOT RULE OUT SHOWERS/STORMS AT ANY TIME DUE TO THE NATURE OF THE
STALLED SFC BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY JUST A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...IN THE LOW 80S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD WITH MILD
LOWS IN THE MID 60S. BUT AS HEIGHTS RISE NEXT WEEK...TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE EACH DAY AND MIGHT ACTUALLY TOP OUT ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONDITIONS WERE HIGHLY VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD...RANGING FROM LIFR TO VFR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WERE OCCURRING NEAR THE TN BORDER. WIDELY VARYING CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT...AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD
SLOWLY TO THE NE. PRECIPITATION AND SUB VFR SHOULD CONTINUE OVER
SE KY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF IN THE
VICINITY OF KSME AND KLOZ BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KYZ068-069-079-080-
083>086-111-114-116.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ087-088-109-110-
112-113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...HAL




000
FXUS63 KJKL 050818
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
418 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE TO NEAR THE OH/WV BORDER BY MONDAY
EVENING. THE SYSTEM HAS A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE UNDER IT ALONG
WITH WEAK INSTABILITY. THIS IS RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WERE SPREADING NORTH INTO THE REGION DURING
SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPATION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY...AND THEN EXIT TO THE EAST LATE TODAY INTO MONDAY
AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS. THE GREATEST PRECIP IS EXPECTED IN THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE JKL FORECAST AREA...WITH
THE LOWEST POP IN THE NW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING TALL THIN
CAPE...HIGH PW/NEARLY SATURATED COLUMN...AND WEAK STEERING
CURRENTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR EFFICIENT PRODUCTION OF RAIN. WITH
THE GROUND ALREADY WET IN MOST PLACES...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES IN OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES UNTIL THE
THREAT OF PRECIP DIMINISHES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE PERIOD BEGINS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW EXITS THE REGION TO THE
NORTHEAST AND GETS EMBEDDED INTO A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. EXTENDING FROM THIS TROUGH IS A SFC BOUNDARY THAT WILL
MOVE INTO THE OH VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO RISE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WILL KEEP THE SFC BOUNDARY GENERALLY STALLED OUT
OVER THE OH VALLEY AND/OR EASTERN KENTUCKY AS IT SLOWLY SAGS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
RIDGE AND THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL DURING NEXT WEEK SO HAVE STAYED
CLOSE TO THE CR SUPERBLEND WITH POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE UNSETTLED AND WET ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EVERY DAY. THIS
WILL INCLUDE A THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT SEE REPEATED/EXCESSIVE DAYS OF RAIN.
POPS HAVE A GENERAL DIURNAL TREND FOR THE PERIOD...EVEN THOUGH
CANNOT RULE OUT SHOWERS/STORMS AT ANY TIME DUE TO THE NATURE OF THE
STALLED SFC BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY JUST A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...IN THE LOW 80S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD WITH MILD
LOWS IN THE MID 60S. BUT AS HEIGHTS RISE NEXT WEEK...TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE EACH DAY AND MIGHT ACTUALLY TOP OUT ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONDITIONS WERE HIGHLY VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD...RANGING FROM LIFR TO VFR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WERE OCCURRING NEAR THE TN BORDER. WIDELY VARYING CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT...AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD
SLOWLY TO THE NE. PRECIPITATION AND SUB VFR SHOULD CONTINUE OVER
SE KY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF IN THE
VICINITY OF KSME AND KLOZ BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KYZ068-069-079-080-
083>086-111-114-116.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ087-088-109-110-
112-113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...HAL





000
FXUS63 KJKL 050726
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
326 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SLOW MOVING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA. WITH MANY LOCATIONS
STILL SATURATED...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AS PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD NORTHEAST WITH TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1116 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PERSIST ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDORS. HAVE
ACCOUNTED FOR BETTER COVERAGE WEST OF I-75 THAT IS ONGOING. THE
MOSAIC RADAR REVEALS MORE SUSTAINED CONVECTION STILL PIVOTING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF TENNESSEE AND THE LATEST HIGHER
RESOLUTION SHORT TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A
DIMINISHING TREND TO THE CURRENT ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH
AROUND MIDNIGHT...BEFORE BRINGING IN MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
CLOSER TOWARDS DAWN. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS A CONCERN
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT SEEN HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...ALTHOUGH WILL FOREGO ANY ADDED HEADLINES
FOR NOW AS THE MORE SUSTAINED HEAVIER CONVECTION LOOKS TO STAY
MAINLY ACROSS TENNESSEE. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 838 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ISOLATED CONVECTION IS SHRINKING IN COVERAGE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS OUR SOUTH...ALTHOUGH WITH VERY LITTLE
MOVEMENT...SOME OF THE CELLS ARE PUTTING DOWN SOME HEAVY
LOCALIZED RAINFALL. THERE IS STILL GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THESE WILL
WIND DOWN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY IS THEN
EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHEN FORCING BEGINS MOVING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
HAVE TIMED THESE HIGHER POPS A BIT LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY...BASED
ON A BLEND OF THE SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE. UPDATES HAVE BEEN
SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
PRESENTLY...A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
SOUTHERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THESE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY WIND DOWN AS INSTABILITY
DROPS OFF THIS EVENING...PROVIDING A GOOD LULL FOR OUTDOOR
FESTIVITIES THIS EVENING.

HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ARKANSAS AND WESTERN TENNESSEE
WILL SLOWLY ROTATE EAST-NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE AREA FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. GIVEN THE CURRENT EXPECTED TRACK...THERE
WILL BE DECENT GRADIENT IN POPS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE DAY
SUNDAY WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY...DROPPING OFF AS YOU HEAD NORTHWEST TOWARDS LEXINGTON.
GIVEN THE GOOD LIFT AND MOISTURE IN PLACE...HAVE BUMPED POPS UP
TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERALL...LAPSE RATES AREN`T THAT GREAT...SO
THUNDER MAY NOT OCCUR...BUT LEFT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE
FORECAST GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR. PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER
WILL KEEP HIGHS DOWN ON SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THIS WAVE SHOULD FINALLY MAKE ITS MOVE TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST...WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING OVERNIGHT. MAY KEEP
CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOWS IN THE
60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
GRADUALLY SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION AND MERGING WITH A
TROUGH APPROACHING THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A
SFC BOUNDARY WILL ALSO APPROACH THE OHIO VALLEY BY MIDWEEK AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC AND THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. HEIGHTS ARE PROJECTED TO RISE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL
KEEP THE BOUNDARY OR ITS REMNANTS GENERALLY STALLED OUT OVER THE
OH VALLEY REGION OR ONLY SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH INTO EASTERN KY
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN UNSETTLED AND AT TIMES WET WEATHER
ACROSS EASTERN KY. POPS WILL HAVE A GENERAL DIURNAL FLAVOR FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WITH THE FRONT STALLING OUT IN THE
VICINITY...CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ANY POINT. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE AT MIDWEEK WHEN THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO START TO STALL NEAR THE OH RIVER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ALSO REMAIN CLOSE TO...IF NOT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS...FOR HIGHS
AND NEAR NORMAL FOR LOWS. TEMPERATURES MAY WARM A BIT AT THE THE
PERIOD...PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONDITIONS WERE HIGHLY VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD...RANGING FROM LIFR TO VFR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WERE OCCURRING NEAR THE TN BORDER. WIDELY VARYING CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT...AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD
SLOWLY TO THE NE. PRECIPITATION AND SUB VFR SHOULD CONTINUE OVER
SE KY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF IN THE
VICINITY OF KSME AND KLOZ BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING FOR
KYZ068-069-079-080- 083>086-111-114-116.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
KYZ087-088-109-110-112-113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...HAL





000
FXUS63 KJKL 050726
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
326 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SLOW MOVING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA. WITH MANY LOCATIONS
STILL SATURATED...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AS PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD NORTHEAST WITH TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1116 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PERSIST ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDORS. HAVE
ACCOUNTED FOR BETTER COVERAGE WEST OF I-75 THAT IS ONGOING. THE
MOSAIC RADAR REVEALS MORE SUSTAINED CONVECTION STILL PIVOTING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF TENNESSEE AND THE LATEST HIGHER
RESOLUTION SHORT TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A
DIMINISHING TREND TO THE CURRENT ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH
AROUND MIDNIGHT...BEFORE BRINGING IN MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
CLOSER TOWARDS DAWN. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS A CONCERN
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT SEEN HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...ALTHOUGH WILL FOREGO ANY ADDED HEADLINES
FOR NOW AS THE MORE SUSTAINED HEAVIER CONVECTION LOOKS TO STAY
MAINLY ACROSS TENNESSEE. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 838 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ISOLATED CONVECTION IS SHRINKING IN COVERAGE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS OUR SOUTH...ALTHOUGH WITH VERY LITTLE
MOVEMENT...SOME OF THE CELLS ARE PUTTING DOWN SOME HEAVY
LOCALIZED RAINFALL. THERE IS STILL GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THESE WILL
WIND DOWN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY IS THEN
EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHEN FORCING BEGINS MOVING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
HAVE TIMED THESE HIGHER POPS A BIT LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY...BASED
ON A BLEND OF THE SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE. UPDATES HAVE BEEN
SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
PRESENTLY...A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
SOUTHERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THESE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY WIND DOWN AS INSTABILITY
DROPS OFF THIS EVENING...PROVIDING A GOOD LULL FOR OUTDOOR
FESTIVITIES THIS EVENING.

HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ARKANSAS AND WESTERN TENNESSEE
WILL SLOWLY ROTATE EAST-NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE AREA FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. GIVEN THE CURRENT EXPECTED TRACK...THERE
WILL BE DECENT GRADIENT IN POPS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE DAY
SUNDAY WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY...DROPPING OFF AS YOU HEAD NORTHWEST TOWARDS LEXINGTON.
GIVEN THE GOOD LIFT AND MOISTURE IN PLACE...HAVE BUMPED POPS UP
TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERALL...LAPSE RATES AREN`T THAT GREAT...SO
THUNDER MAY NOT OCCUR...BUT LEFT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE
FORECAST GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR. PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER
WILL KEEP HIGHS DOWN ON SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THIS WAVE SHOULD FINALLY MAKE ITS MOVE TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST...WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING OVERNIGHT. MAY KEEP
CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOWS IN THE
60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
GRADUALLY SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION AND MERGING WITH A
TROUGH APPROACHING THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A
SFC BOUNDARY WILL ALSO APPROACH THE OHIO VALLEY BY MIDWEEK AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC AND THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. HEIGHTS ARE PROJECTED TO RISE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL
KEEP THE BOUNDARY OR ITS REMNANTS GENERALLY STALLED OUT OVER THE
OH VALLEY REGION OR ONLY SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH INTO EASTERN KY
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN UNSETTLED AND AT TIMES WET WEATHER
ACROSS EASTERN KY. POPS WILL HAVE A GENERAL DIURNAL FLAVOR FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WITH THE FRONT STALLING OUT IN THE
VICINITY...CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ANY POINT. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE AT MIDWEEK WHEN THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO START TO STALL NEAR THE OH RIVER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ALSO REMAIN CLOSE TO...IF NOT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS...FOR HIGHS
AND NEAR NORMAL FOR LOWS. TEMPERATURES MAY WARM A BIT AT THE THE
PERIOD...PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONDITIONS WERE HIGHLY VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD...RANGING FROM LIFR TO VFR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WERE OCCURRING NEAR THE TN BORDER. WIDELY VARYING CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT...AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD
SLOWLY TO THE NE. PRECIPITATION AND SUB VFR SHOULD CONTINUE OVER
SE KY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF IN THE
VICINITY OF KSME AND KLOZ BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING FOR
KYZ068-069-079-080- 083>086-111-114-116.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
KYZ087-088-109-110-112-113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...HAL




000
FXUS63 KJKL 050316 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1116 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1116 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PERSIST ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDORS. HAVE
ACCOUNTED FOR BETTER COVERAGE WEST OF I-75 THAT IS ONGOING. THE
MOSAIC RADAR REVEALS MORE SUSTAINED CONVECTION STILL PIVOTING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF TENNESSEE AND THE LATEST HIGHER
RESOLUTION SHORT TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A
DIMINISHING TREND TO THE CURRENT ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH
AROUND MIDNIGHT...BEFORE BRINGING IN MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
CLOSER TOWARDS DAWN. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS A CONCERN
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT SEEN HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...ALTHOUGH WILL FOREGO ANY ADDED HEADLINES
FOR NOW AS THE MORE SUSTAINED HEAVIER CONVECTION LOOKS TO STAY
MAINLY ACROSS TENNESSEE. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 838 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ISOLATED CONVECTION IS SHRINKING IN COVERAGE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS OUR SOUTH...ALTHOUGH WITH VERY LITTLE
MOVEMENT...SOME OF THE CELLS ARE PUTTING DOWN SOME HEAVY
LOCALIZED RAINFALL. THERE IS STILL GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THESE WILL
WIND DOWN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY IS THEN
EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHEN FORCING BEGINS MOVING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
HAVE TIMED THESE HIGHER POPS A BIT LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY...BASED
ON A BLEND OF THE SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE. UPDATES HAVE BEEN
SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
PRESENTLY...A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
SOUTHERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THESE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY WIND DOWN AS INSTABILITY
DROPS OFF THIS EVENING...PROVIDING A GOOD LULL FOR OUTDOOR
FESTIVITIES THIS EVENING.

HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ARKANSAS AND WESTERN TENNESSEE
WILL SLOWLY ROTATE EAST-NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE AREA FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. GIVEN THE CURRENT EXPECTED TRACK...THERE
WILL BE DECENT GRADIENT IN POPS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE DAY
SUNDAY WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY...DROPPING OFF AS YOU HEAD NORTHWEST TOWARDS LEXINGTON.
GIVEN THE GOOD LIFT AND MOISTURE IN PLACE...HAVE BUMPED POPS UP
TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERALL...LAPSE RATES AREN`T THAT GREAT...SO
THUNDER MAY NOT OCCUR...BUT LEFT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE
FORECAST GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR. PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER
WILL KEEP HIGHS DOWN ON SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THIS WAVE SHOULD FINALLY MAKE ITS MOVE TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST...WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING OVERNIGHT. MAY KEEP
CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOWS IN THE
60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
GRADUALLY SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION AND MERGING WITH A
TROUGH APPROACHING THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A
SFC BOUNDARY WILL ALSO APPROACH THE OHIO VALLEY BY MIDWEEK AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC AND THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. HEIGHTS ARE PROJECTED TO RISE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL
KEEP THE BOUNDARY OR ITS REMNANTS GENERALLY STALLED OUT OVER THE
OH VALLEY REGION OR ONLY SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH INTO EASTERN KY
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN UNSETTLED AND AT TIMES WET WEATHER
ACROSS EASTERN KY. POPS WILL HAVE A GENERAL DIURNAL FLAVOR FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WITH THE FRONT STALLING OUT IN THE
VICINITY...CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ANY POINT. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE AT MIDWEEK WHEN THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO START TO STALL NEAR THE OH RIVER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ALSO REMAIN CLOSE TO...IF NOT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS...FOR HIGHS
AND NEAR NORMAL FOR LOWS. TEMPERATURES MAY WARM A BIT AT THE THE
PERIOD...PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 838 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY HOLD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE OVERNIGHT...AS ISOLATED CONVECTION WINDS DOWN AND
LOWER CLOUDS SCATTER OUT. CEILINGS WILL THEN LOWER FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z...OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE IN WITH RAIN
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SME TO PBX. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN





000
FXUS63 KJKL 050316 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1116 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1116 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PERSIST ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDORS. HAVE
ACCOUNTED FOR BETTER COVERAGE WEST OF I-75 THAT IS ONGOING. THE
MOSAIC RADAR REVEALS MORE SUSTAINED CONVECTION STILL PIVOTING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF TENNESSEE AND THE LATEST HIGHER
RESOLUTION SHORT TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A
DIMINISHING TREND TO THE CURRENT ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH
AROUND MIDNIGHT...BEFORE BRINGING IN MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
CLOSER TOWARDS DAWN. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS A CONCERN
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT SEEN HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...ALTHOUGH WILL FOREGO ANY ADDED HEADLINES
FOR NOW AS THE MORE SUSTAINED HEAVIER CONVECTION LOOKS TO STAY
MAINLY ACROSS TENNESSEE. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 838 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ISOLATED CONVECTION IS SHRINKING IN COVERAGE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS OUR SOUTH...ALTHOUGH WITH VERY LITTLE
MOVEMENT...SOME OF THE CELLS ARE PUTTING DOWN SOME HEAVY
LOCALIZED RAINFALL. THERE IS STILL GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THESE WILL
WIND DOWN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY IS THEN
EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHEN FORCING BEGINS MOVING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
HAVE TIMED THESE HIGHER POPS A BIT LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY...BASED
ON A BLEND OF THE SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE. UPDATES HAVE BEEN
SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
PRESENTLY...A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
SOUTHERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THESE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY WIND DOWN AS INSTABILITY
DROPS OFF THIS EVENING...PROVIDING A GOOD LULL FOR OUTDOOR
FESTIVITIES THIS EVENING.

HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ARKANSAS AND WESTERN TENNESSEE
WILL SLOWLY ROTATE EAST-NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE AREA FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. GIVEN THE CURRENT EXPECTED TRACK...THERE
WILL BE DECENT GRADIENT IN POPS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE DAY
SUNDAY WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY...DROPPING OFF AS YOU HEAD NORTHWEST TOWARDS LEXINGTON.
GIVEN THE GOOD LIFT AND MOISTURE IN PLACE...HAVE BUMPED POPS UP
TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERALL...LAPSE RATES AREN`T THAT GREAT...SO
THUNDER MAY NOT OCCUR...BUT LEFT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE
FORECAST GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR. PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER
WILL KEEP HIGHS DOWN ON SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THIS WAVE SHOULD FINALLY MAKE ITS MOVE TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST...WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING OVERNIGHT. MAY KEEP
CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOWS IN THE
60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
GRADUALLY SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION AND MERGING WITH A
TROUGH APPROACHING THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A
SFC BOUNDARY WILL ALSO APPROACH THE OHIO VALLEY BY MIDWEEK AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC AND THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. HEIGHTS ARE PROJECTED TO RISE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL
KEEP THE BOUNDARY OR ITS REMNANTS GENERALLY STALLED OUT OVER THE
OH VALLEY REGION OR ONLY SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH INTO EASTERN KY
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN UNSETTLED AND AT TIMES WET WEATHER
ACROSS EASTERN KY. POPS WILL HAVE A GENERAL DIURNAL FLAVOR FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WITH THE FRONT STALLING OUT IN THE
VICINITY...CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ANY POINT. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE AT MIDWEEK WHEN THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO START TO STALL NEAR THE OH RIVER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ALSO REMAIN CLOSE TO...IF NOT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS...FOR HIGHS
AND NEAR NORMAL FOR LOWS. TEMPERATURES MAY WARM A BIT AT THE THE
PERIOD...PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 838 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY HOLD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE OVERNIGHT...AS ISOLATED CONVECTION WINDS DOWN AND
LOWER CLOUDS SCATTER OUT. CEILINGS WILL THEN LOWER FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z...OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE IN WITH RAIN
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SME TO PBX. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN




000
FXUS63 KJKL 050038 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
838 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 838 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ISOLATED CONVECTION IS SHRINKING IN COVERAGE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS OUR SOUTH...ALTHOUGH WITH VERY LITTLE
MOVEMENT...SOME OF THE CELLS ARE PUTTING DOWN SOME HEAVY
LOCALIZED RAINFALL. THERE IS STILL GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THESE WILL
WIND DOWN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY IS THEN
EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHEN FORCING BEGINS MOVING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
HAVE TIMED THESE HIGHER POPS A BIT LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY...BASED
ON A BLEND OF THE SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE. UPDATES HAVE BEEN
SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
PRESENTLY...A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
SOUTHERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THESE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY WIND DOWN AS INSTABILITY
DROPS OFF THIS EVENING...PROVIDING A GOOD LULL FOR OUTDOOR
FESTIVITIES THIS EVENING.

HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ARKANSAS AND WESTERN TENNESSEE
WILL SLOWLY ROTATE EAST-NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE AREA FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. GIVEN THE CURRENT EXPECTED TRACK...THERE
WILL BE DECENT GRADIENT IN POPS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE DAY
SUNDAY WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY...DROPPING OFF AS YOU HEAD NORTHWEST TOWARDS LEXINGTON.
GIVEN THE GOOD LIFT AND MOISTURE IN PLACE...HAVE BUMPED POPS UP
TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERALL...LAPSE RATES AREN`T THAT GREAT...SO
THUNDER MAY NOT OCCUR...BUT LEFT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE
FORECAST GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR. PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER
WILL KEEP HIGHS DOWN ON SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THIS WAVE SHOULD FINALLY MAKE ITS MOVE TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST...WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING OVERNIGHT. MAY KEEP
CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOWS IN THE
60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
GRADUALLY SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION AND MERGING WITH A
TROUGH APPROACHING THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A
SFC BOUNDARY WILL ALSO APPROACH THE OHIO VALLEY BY MIDWEEK AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC AND THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. HEIGHTS ARE PROJECTED TO RISE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL
KEEP THE BOUNDARY OR ITS REMNANTS GENERALLY STALLED OUT OVER THE
OH VALLEY REGION OR ONLY SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH INTO EASTERN KY
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN UNSETTLED AND AT TIMES WET WEATHER
ACROSS EASTERN KY. POPS WILL HAVE A GENERAL DIURNAL FLAVOR FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WITH THE FRONT STALLING OUT IN THE
VICINITY...CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ANY POINT. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE AT MIDWEEK WHEN THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO START TO STALL NEAR THE OH RIVER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ALSO REMAIN CLOSE TO...IF NOT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS...FOR HIGHS
AND NEAR NORMAL FOR LOWS. TEMPERATURES MAY WARM A BIT AT THE THE
PERIOD...PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 838 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY HOLD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE OVERNIGHT...AS ISOLATED CONVECTION WINDS DOWN AND
LOWER CLOUDS SCATTER OUT. CEILINGS WILL THEN LOWER FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z...OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE IN WITH RAIN
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SME TO PBX. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN





000
FXUS63 KJKL 050038 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
838 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 838 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ISOLATED CONVECTION IS SHRINKING IN COVERAGE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS OUR SOUTH...ALTHOUGH WITH VERY LITTLE
MOVEMENT...SOME OF THE CELLS ARE PUTTING DOWN SOME HEAVY
LOCALIZED RAINFALL. THERE IS STILL GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THESE WILL
WIND DOWN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY IS THEN
EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHEN FORCING BEGINS MOVING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
HAVE TIMED THESE HIGHER POPS A BIT LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY...BASED
ON A BLEND OF THE SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE. UPDATES HAVE BEEN
SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
PRESENTLY...A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
SOUTHERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THESE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY WIND DOWN AS INSTABILITY
DROPS OFF THIS EVENING...PROVIDING A GOOD LULL FOR OUTDOOR
FESTIVITIES THIS EVENING.

HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ARKANSAS AND WESTERN TENNESSEE
WILL SLOWLY ROTATE EAST-NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE AREA FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. GIVEN THE CURRENT EXPECTED TRACK...THERE
WILL BE DECENT GRADIENT IN POPS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE DAY
SUNDAY WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY...DROPPING OFF AS YOU HEAD NORTHWEST TOWARDS LEXINGTON.
GIVEN THE GOOD LIFT AND MOISTURE IN PLACE...HAVE BUMPED POPS UP
TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERALL...LAPSE RATES AREN`T THAT GREAT...SO
THUNDER MAY NOT OCCUR...BUT LEFT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE
FORECAST GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR. PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER
WILL KEEP HIGHS DOWN ON SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THIS WAVE SHOULD FINALLY MAKE ITS MOVE TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST...WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING OVERNIGHT. MAY KEEP
CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOWS IN THE
60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
GRADUALLY SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION AND MERGING WITH A
TROUGH APPROACHING THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A
SFC BOUNDARY WILL ALSO APPROACH THE OHIO VALLEY BY MIDWEEK AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC AND THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. HEIGHTS ARE PROJECTED TO RISE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL
KEEP THE BOUNDARY OR ITS REMNANTS GENERALLY STALLED OUT OVER THE
OH VALLEY REGION OR ONLY SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH INTO EASTERN KY
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN UNSETTLED AND AT TIMES WET WEATHER
ACROSS EASTERN KY. POPS WILL HAVE A GENERAL DIURNAL FLAVOR FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WITH THE FRONT STALLING OUT IN THE
VICINITY...CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ANY POINT. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE AT MIDWEEK WHEN THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO START TO STALL NEAR THE OH RIVER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ALSO REMAIN CLOSE TO...IF NOT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS...FOR HIGHS
AND NEAR NORMAL FOR LOWS. TEMPERATURES MAY WARM A BIT AT THE THE
PERIOD...PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 838 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY HOLD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE OVERNIGHT...AS ISOLATED CONVECTION WINDS DOWN AND
LOWER CLOUDS SCATTER OUT. CEILINGS WILL THEN LOWER FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z...OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE IN WITH RAIN
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SME TO PBX. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN




000
FXUS63 KJKL 050038 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
838 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 838 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ISOLATED CONVECTION IS SHRINKING IN COVERAGE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS OUR SOUTH...ALTHOUGH WITH VERY LITTLE
MOVEMENT...SOME OF THE CELLS ARE PUTTING DOWN SOME HEAVY
LOCALIZED RAINFALL. THERE IS STILL GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THESE WILL
WIND DOWN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY IS THEN
EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHEN FORCING BEGINS MOVING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
HAVE TIMED THESE HIGHER POPS A BIT LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY...BASED
ON A BLEND OF THE SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE. UPDATES HAVE BEEN
SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
PRESENTLY...A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
SOUTHERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THESE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY WIND DOWN AS INSTABILITY
DROPS OFF THIS EVENING...PROVIDING A GOOD LULL FOR OUTDOOR
FESTIVITIES THIS EVENING.

HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ARKANSAS AND WESTERN TENNESSEE
WILL SLOWLY ROTATE EAST-NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE AREA FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. GIVEN THE CURRENT EXPECTED TRACK...THERE
WILL BE DECENT GRADIENT IN POPS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE DAY
SUNDAY WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY...DROPPING OFF AS YOU HEAD NORTHWEST TOWARDS LEXINGTON.
GIVEN THE GOOD LIFT AND MOISTURE IN PLACE...HAVE BUMPED POPS UP
TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERALL...LAPSE RATES AREN`T THAT GREAT...SO
THUNDER MAY NOT OCCUR...BUT LEFT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE
FORECAST GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR. PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER
WILL KEEP HIGHS DOWN ON SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THIS WAVE SHOULD FINALLY MAKE ITS MOVE TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST...WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING OVERNIGHT. MAY KEEP
CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOWS IN THE
60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
GRADUALLY SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION AND MERGING WITH A
TROUGH APPROACHING THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A
SFC BOUNDARY WILL ALSO APPROACH THE OHIO VALLEY BY MIDWEEK AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC AND THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. HEIGHTS ARE PROJECTED TO RISE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL
KEEP THE BOUNDARY OR ITS REMNANTS GENERALLY STALLED OUT OVER THE
OH VALLEY REGION OR ONLY SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH INTO EASTERN KY
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN UNSETTLED AND AT TIMES WET WEATHER
ACROSS EASTERN KY. POPS WILL HAVE A GENERAL DIURNAL FLAVOR FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WITH THE FRONT STALLING OUT IN THE
VICINITY...CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ANY POINT. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE AT MIDWEEK WHEN THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO START TO STALL NEAR THE OH RIVER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ALSO REMAIN CLOSE TO...IF NOT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS...FOR HIGHS
AND NEAR NORMAL FOR LOWS. TEMPERATURES MAY WARM A BIT AT THE THE
PERIOD...PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 838 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY HOLD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE OVERNIGHT...AS ISOLATED CONVECTION WINDS DOWN AND
LOWER CLOUDS SCATTER OUT. CEILINGS WILL THEN LOWER FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z...OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE IN WITH RAIN
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SME TO PBX. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN




000
FXUS63 KJKL 041951
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
351 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
PRESENTLY...A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
SOUTHERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THESE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY WIND DOWN AS INSTABILITY
DROPS OFF THIS EVENING...PROVIDING A GOOD LULL FOR OUTDOOR
FESTIVITIES THIS EVENING.

HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ARKANSAS AND WESTERN TENNESSEE
WILL SLOWLY ROTATE EAST-NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE AREA FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. GIVEN THE CURRENT EXPECTED TRACK...THERE
WILL BE DECENT GRADIENT IN POPS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE DAY
SUNDAY WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY...DROPPING OFF AS YOU HEAD NORTHWEST TOWARDS LEXINGTON.
GIVEN THE GOOD LIFT AND MOISTURE IN PLACE...HAVE BUMPED POPS UP
TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERALL...LAPSE RATES AREN`T THAT GREAT...SO
THUNDER MAY NOT OCCUR...BUT LEFT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE
FORECAST GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR. PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER
WILL KEEP HIGHS DOWN ON SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THIS WAVE SHOULD FINALLY MAKE ITS MOVE TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST...WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING OVERNIGHT. MAY KEEP
CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOWS IN THE
60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
GRADUALLY SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION AND MERGING WITH A
TROUGH APPROACHING THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A
SFC BOUNDARY WILL ALSO APPROACH THE OHIO VALLEY BY MIDWEEK AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC AND THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. HEIGHTS ARE PROJECTED TO RISE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL
KEEP THE BOUNDARY OR ITS REMNANTS GENERALLY STALLED OUT OVER THE
OH VALLEY REGION OR ONLY SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH INTO EASTERN KY
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN UNSETTLED AND AT TIMES WET WEATHER
ACROSS EASTERN KY. POPS WILL HAVE A GENERAL DIURNAL FLAVOR FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WITH THE FRONT STALLING OUT IN THE
VICINITY...CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ANY POINT. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE AT MIDWEEK WHEN THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO START TO STALL NEAR THE OH RIVER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ALSO REMAIN CLOSE TO...IF NOT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS...FOR HIGHS
AND NEAR NORMAL FOR LOWS. TEMPERATURES MAY WARM A BIT AT THE THE
PERIOD...PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
HOWEVER...CIGS WILL LOWER AGAIN TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
PUSHES IN FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL BRING CIGS BACK DOWN BELOW
1000 FEET AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT. CIGS WILL LIFT AGAIN BY MIDDAY
TOMORROW EVENTUALLY RETURNING TO VFR. HOWEVER...PERIODS OF RAIN
WILL CONTINUE FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW FOR MOST OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...KAS





000
FXUS63 KJKL 041951
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
351 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
PRESENTLY...A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
SOUTHERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THESE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY WIND DOWN AS INSTABILITY
DROPS OFF THIS EVENING...PROVIDING A GOOD LULL FOR OUTDOOR
FESTIVITIES THIS EVENING.

HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ARKANSAS AND WESTERN TENNESSEE
WILL SLOWLY ROTATE EAST-NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE AREA FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. GIVEN THE CURRENT EXPECTED TRACK...THERE
WILL BE DECENT GRADIENT IN POPS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE DAY
SUNDAY WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY...DROPPING OFF AS YOU HEAD NORTHWEST TOWARDS LEXINGTON.
GIVEN THE GOOD LIFT AND MOISTURE IN PLACE...HAVE BUMPED POPS UP
TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERALL...LAPSE RATES AREN`T THAT GREAT...SO
THUNDER MAY NOT OCCUR...BUT LEFT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE
FORECAST GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR. PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER
WILL KEEP HIGHS DOWN ON SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THIS WAVE SHOULD FINALLY MAKE ITS MOVE TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST...WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING OVERNIGHT. MAY KEEP
CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOWS IN THE
60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
GRADUALLY SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION AND MERGING WITH A
TROUGH APPROACHING THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A
SFC BOUNDARY WILL ALSO APPROACH THE OHIO VALLEY BY MIDWEEK AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC AND THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. HEIGHTS ARE PROJECTED TO RISE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL
KEEP THE BOUNDARY OR ITS REMNANTS GENERALLY STALLED OUT OVER THE
OH VALLEY REGION OR ONLY SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH INTO EASTERN KY
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN UNSETTLED AND AT TIMES WET WEATHER
ACROSS EASTERN KY. POPS WILL HAVE A GENERAL DIURNAL FLAVOR FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WITH THE FRONT STALLING OUT IN THE
VICINITY...CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ANY POINT. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE AT MIDWEEK WHEN THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO START TO STALL NEAR THE OH RIVER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ALSO REMAIN CLOSE TO...IF NOT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS...FOR HIGHS
AND NEAR NORMAL FOR LOWS. TEMPERATURES MAY WARM A BIT AT THE THE
PERIOD...PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
HOWEVER...CIGS WILL LOWER AGAIN TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
PUSHES IN FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL BRING CIGS BACK DOWN BELOW
1000 FEET AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT. CIGS WILL LIFT AGAIN BY MIDDAY
TOMORROW EVENTUALLY RETURNING TO VFR. HOWEVER...PERIODS OF RAIN
WILL CONTINUE FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW FOR MOST OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...KAS




000
FXUS63 KJKL 041857
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
257 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
PRESENTLY...A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
SOUTHERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THESE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY WIND DOWN AS INSTABILITY
DROPS OFF THIS EVENING...PROVIDING A GOOD LULL FOR OUTDOOR
FESTIVITIES THIS EVENING.

HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ARKANSAS AND WESTERN TENNESSEE
WILL SLOWLY ROTATE EAST-NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE AREA FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. GIVEN THE CURRENT EXPECTED TRACK...THERE
WILL BE DECENT GRADIENT IN POPS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE DAY
SUNDAY WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY...DROPPING OFF AS YOU HEAD NORTHWEST TOWARDS LEXINGTON.
GIVEN THE GOOD LIFT AND MOISTURE IN PLACE...HAVE BUMPED POPS UP
TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERALL...LAPSE RATES AREN`T THAT GREAT...SO
THUNDER MAY NOT OCCUR...BUT LEFT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE
FORECAST GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR. PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER
WILL KEEP HIGHS DOWN ON SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THIS WAVE SHOULD FINALLY MAKE ITS MOVE TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST...WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING OVERNIGHT. MAY KEEP
CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOWS IN THE
60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LONG TERM DISCUSSION TO FOLLOW SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
HOWEVER...CIGS WILL LOWER AGAIN TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
PUSHES IN FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL BRING CIGS BACK DOWN BELOW
1000 FEET AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT. CIGS WILL LIFT AGAIN BY MIDDAY
TOMORROW EVENTUALLY RETURNING TO VFR. HOWEVER...PERIODS OF RAIN
WILL CONTINUE FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW FOR MOST OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...KAS





000
FXUS63 KJKL 041759
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
159 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

UPDATED TO LOWER THUNDER CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY. AN ISOLATED
STRIKE OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...JUST EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...WHICH MAY CONTAIN SOME FAIRLY
DECENT DOWNPOURS GIVEN THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT. LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD
SEE A LULL THIS EVENING BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE PUSHES NORTH
WITH RAIN SPREADING BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 810 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MADE SOME UPDATES TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...BASED ON
LATEST MODEL RUNS HANDLING OF THE UPPER LOW MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS...AND A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WAS OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. A VERY MOIST AIR MASS PERSISTED SOUTH OF THE FRONT OVER
KENTUCKY...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERED.

THE BULK OF THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND...BUT A
SMALL PIECE OF IT WILL BE LEFT BEHIND AS AN UPPER LOW.
MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO MAKE MORE PROGRESS
TO THE SOUTHEAST...BUT IT WILL LOSE MOMENTUM AND DEFINITION AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT DEPARTS. ENOUGH DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA...ESPECIALLY AT MID-UPPER LEVELS...SO THAT
OUR POP WILL BE LOWER FOR MUCH OF TODAY. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
AREA WILL HAVE THE MOST DIFFICULT TIME REALIZING THIS DRYING
ALOFT...AND WILL HAVE THE GREATEST POP TODAY. WITHOUT ANY ONGOING
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP AND THE RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL GREATLY
REDUCED...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS CANCELLED BEFORE ITS SCHEDULED
8 AM EXPIRATION.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NE TOWARD KY TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...AND BRING AN INCREASE IN OUR POP ONCE AGAIN...ESPECIALLY
IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY
ON MONDAY BEFORE LIFTING NEWD TUESDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW
DEPARTS...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHIFTS TO BECOME MORE ZONALLY
ORIENTED. YET AS THIS TRANSITION OCCURS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ALLOWING FOR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
DRAPE ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL ACROSS
KENTUCKY...AND FOCUS SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WORK
WEEK. IMPULSES RIDING ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
TIME...BUT FOR NOW HAVE ALLOWED FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN POPS THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BEGINS SHIFTING ONCE
AGAIN AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD INCLUDES CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS EVERY DAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY STRONG STORMS APPEARS TO BE ON THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS A BETTER DEFINED SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
AND HELPS STRENGTHEN THE UPPER LEVER JET. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON
THE COOLER SIDE OF NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MILD TEMPS AT
NIGHT DUE TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER...LIMITING
DIURNAL RANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
HOWEVER...CIGS WILL LOWER AGAIN TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
PUSHES IN FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL BRING CIGS BACK DOWN BELOW
1000 FEET AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT. CIGS WILL LIFT AGAIN BY MIDDAY
TOMORROW EVENTUALLY RETURNING TO VFR. HOWEVER...PERIODS OF RAIN
WILL CONTINUE FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMROROW FOR MOST OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...KAS





000
FXUS63 KJKL 041759
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
159 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

UPDATED TO LOWER THUNDER CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY. AN ISOLATED
STRIKE OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...JUST EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...WHICH MAY CONTAIN SOME FAIRLY
DECENT DOWNPOURS GIVEN THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT. LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD
SEE A LULL THIS EVENING BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE PUSHES NORTH
WITH RAIN SPREADING BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 810 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MADE SOME UPDATES TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...BASED ON
LATEST MODEL RUNS HANDLING OF THE UPPER LOW MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS...AND A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WAS OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. A VERY MOIST AIR MASS PERSISTED SOUTH OF THE FRONT OVER
KENTUCKY...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERED.

THE BULK OF THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND...BUT A
SMALL PIECE OF IT WILL BE LEFT BEHIND AS AN UPPER LOW.
MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO MAKE MORE PROGRESS
TO THE SOUTHEAST...BUT IT WILL LOSE MOMENTUM AND DEFINITION AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT DEPARTS. ENOUGH DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA...ESPECIALLY AT MID-UPPER LEVELS...SO THAT
OUR POP WILL BE LOWER FOR MUCH OF TODAY. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
AREA WILL HAVE THE MOST DIFFICULT TIME REALIZING THIS DRYING
ALOFT...AND WILL HAVE THE GREATEST POP TODAY. WITHOUT ANY ONGOING
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP AND THE RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL GREATLY
REDUCED...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS CANCELLED BEFORE ITS SCHEDULED
8 AM EXPIRATION.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NE TOWARD KY TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...AND BRING AN INCREASE IN OUR POP ONCE AGAIN...ESPECIALLY
IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY
ON MONDAY BEFORE LIFTING NEWD TUESDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW
DEPARTS...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHIFTS TO BECOME MORE ZONALLY
ORIENTED. YET AS THIS TRANSITION OCCURS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ALLOWING FOR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
DRAPE ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL ACROSS
KENTUCKY...AND FOCUS SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WORK
WEEK. IMPULSES RIDING ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
TIME...BUT FOR NOW HAVE ALLOWED FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN POPS THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BEGINS SHIFTING ONCE
AGAIN AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD INCLUDES CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS EVERY DAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY STRONG STORMS APPEARS TO BE ON THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS A BETTER DEFINED SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
AND HELPS STRENGTHEN THE UPPER LEVER JET. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON
THE COOLER SIDE OF NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MILD TEMPS AT
NIGHT DUE TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER...LIMITING
DIURNAL RANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
HOWEVER...CIGS WILL LOWER AGAIN TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
PUSHES IN FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL BRING CIGS BACK DOWN BELOW
1000 FEET AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT. CIGS WILL LIFT AGAIN BY MIDDAY
TOMORROW EVENTUALLY RETURNING TO VFR. HOWEVER...PERIODS OF RAIN
WILL CONTINUE FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMROROW FOR MOST OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...KAS




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