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000
FXUS62 KKEY 080729
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
229 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES. SKIES OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE
PARTLY CLOUDY. WINDS OVER LAND ARE NORTHWEST TO NORTH NEAR 15 MPH.
C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 60 DEGREES.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND EASTWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
TO OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
FLORIDA KEYS LATE TONIGHT. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE HIGHEST TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL WEAKEN FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT SHOULD PROGRESS SOUTHWARD DOWN THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS COLD FRONT COULD
PASS THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE NEAR ZERO UNTIL THE MIDDLE TO LATE PORTION OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE NORTHWEST TO NORTH BREEZES WILL TURN TO THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. NO ADVISORIES EXPECTED TODAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. NO ADVISORIES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 09/06Z AT BOTH
THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON INTERNATIONAL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE THE
ISSUE AS NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS DECREASE THROUGH 09/18Z...THEN
TURN WEST AND INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY AFTER 09/21Z.
THERE WILL BE NO CROSS WIND IMPACTS DUE TO THE WESTERLY COMPONENT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1895...THE LOW
TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST WAS 49 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON FEBRUARY 8TH...A RECORD
WHICH STILL STANDS 121 YEARS LATER. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST
DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  68 61 70 59 / 0 20 10 -
MARATHON  68 59 72 57 / 0 20 10 -

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BS
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BWC

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 080357
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1057 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES HAVE PREVAILED DURING
THE EARLY HOURS OF THIS SUNDAY NIGHT. LAND STATIONS HAVE REPORTED
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS RANGING 10 TO 15 MPH...WHILE MARINE STATIONS
HAVE REPORTED 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND GUSTING. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
PEAKED TODAY IN THE MID 60S...WITH A HIGH OF 67 DEGREES AT KEY WEST
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...WHICH IS 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR.

.FORECAST...
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE MID 50S FOR KEY WEST AND THE LOWER
KEYS...AND DOWN TO NEAR 50 ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS BEFORE
SUNRISE ON MONDAY. THIS DIFFERENCE IN THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL
BE THANKS TO THE WINDS SHIFTING FROM THE NORTH...BRINGING EXTRA COOL
AIR FROM SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE UPPER HALF OF THE KEYS. A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...NOW LOCATED EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS...WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. MEANWHILE...A HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON MONDAY.
THEN ON MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE
KEYS...BRINGING FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST WERE NECESSARY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST AVAILABLE MARINE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED THAT WINDS REMAINED NEAR
20 KNOTS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THEREFORE...THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. SEAS AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY COME DOWN
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND BASED ON GUIDANCE...THE ADVISORY COULD BE
DROP LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE KEYS
MONDAY NIGHT AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR VIS/CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH ISLAND TERMINALS OVERNIGHT
AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY. FRESH NORTHWESTERLY CROSSWIND
BREEZES THIS EVENING WILL SLACKEN AFTER MIDNIGHT...TURNING GENTLE AND
VEERING TO THE NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN BACKING OUT OF THE WEST
AND BECOMING A MODERATE BREEZE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVERAGE
WILL REMAIN FEW BETWEEN 030-040...BECOMING SCATTERED TOWARDS THE LATTER
HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH RAIN CHANCES REMAINING NEAR NIL.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEY WEST WEATHER HISTORY...BACK IN THE YEAR IN
1978...THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 48F WAS RECORDED. THE
AVERAGE LOW TEMPERATURE SO FAR THIS MONTH IN KEY WEST IS 70.2
DEGREES...WHICH IS 5.1 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN
KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....FLING
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 080357
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1057 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES HAVE PREVAILED DURING
THE EARLY HOURS OF THIS SUNDAY NIGHT. LAND STATIONS HAVE REPORTED
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS RANGING 10 TO 15 MPH...WHILE MARINE STATIONS
HAVE REPORTED 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND GUSTING. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
PEAKED TODAY IN THE MID 60S...WITH A HIGH OF 67 DEGREES AT KEY WEST
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...WHICH IS 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR.

.FORECAST...
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE MID 50S FOR KEY WEST AND THE LOWER
KEYS...AND DOWN TO NEAR 50 ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS BEFORE
SUNRISE ON MONDAY. THIS DIFFERENCE IN THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL
BE THANKS TO THE WINDS SHIFTING FROM THE NORTH...BRINGING EXTRA COOL
AIR FROM SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE UPPER HALF OF THE KEYS. A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...NOW LOCATED EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS...WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. MEANWHILE...A HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON MONDAY.
THEN ON MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE
KEYS...BRINGING FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST WERE NECESSARY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST AVAILABLE MARINE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED THAT WINDS REMAINED NEAR
20 KNOTS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THEREFORE...THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. SEAS AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY COME DOWN
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND BASED ON GUIDANCE...THE ADVISORY COULD BE
DROP LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE KEYS
MONDAY NIGHT AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR VIS/CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH ISLAND TERMINALS OVERNIGHT
AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY. FRESH NORTHWESTERLY CROSSWIND
BREEZES THIS EVENING WILL SLACKEN AFTER MIDNIGHT...TURNING GENTLE AND
VEERING TO THE NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN BACKING OUT OF THE WEST
AND BECOMING A MODERATE BREEZE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVERAGE
WILL REMAIN FEW BETWEEN 030-040...BECOMING SCATTERED TOWARDS THE LATTER
HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH RAIN CHANCES REMAINING NEAR NIL.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEY WEST WEATHER HISTORY...BACK IN THE YEAR IN
1978...THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 48F WAS RECORDED. THE
AVERAGE LOW TEMPERATURE SO FAR THIS MONTH IN KEY WEST IS 70.2
DEGREES...WHICH IS 5.1 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN
KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....FLING
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 072034
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
334 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - COOL CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN IN WAKE
OF THIS MORNINGS COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
WITH DEW POINTS NEAR 50. SKIES HAVE CLEARED CONSIDERABLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH COOL AND WINDY NORTHWEST BREEZES HOLDING.

FORECAST - A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF
OF MEXICO WILL DROP WINDS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...COOL AIR DRAINAGE OFF
THE MAINLAND SHOULD SLOW THE DECAY UNTIL AFTER DAWN. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL RANGE QUITE A BIT...WITH THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES NEAR AND
POSSIBLY BELOW 50 DEGREES IN THE EXTREME UPPER KEYS...AND MID 50S IN
THE LOWER KEYS.

WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR BY...AND PUSHING SOUTHWARDS INTO
CUBA...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TOMORROW AND TURN WESTERLY.
SOMEWHAT WARMER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TOMORROW. A REINFORCING
FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE KEYS MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY. THE
FRONT WILL BE QUITE MOISTURE STARVED...AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL BE RETAINED. WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN SURGE OUT OF THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST. THE BACKED FLOW AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF THICKNESS
ADVECTION WILL JUST AND TO HOLD HIGHS AND LOWS STEADY.

YET ANOTHER RIDGE TROUGH PATTERN WILL SWING THROUGH THE
KEYS...ASSOCIATED WITH YET ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
DRIVE ANOTHER LULL AND SURGE IN WINDS ON THURSDAY. THE CONTINUED
COOL TRAJECTORY KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL WITH SLIM TO NO CHANCE
FOR RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND INTO THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER NORTHEAST AND
EAST NORTHEAST. THE INCREASINGLY MARITIME TRAJECTORY WILL FINALLY
BRING A WARM UP JUST SHY OF NORMAL. RAIN CHANCES WILL STILL REMAIN
SLIM TO NONE.

&&

.MARINE...
FRESH NORTHWEST BREEZES CONTINUE IN WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS COLD FRONT.
A RIDGE SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL EXTEND NEAR
SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS BY MORNING...AND PUSH SOUTHWARDS INTO CUBA
TOMORROW. AS A RESULT...WINDS WILL RELAX SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THIS
PERIOD AND OSCILLATE NORTH TONIGHT...AND THEN WEST TOMORROW. FOR THE
TIME BEING...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
TONIGHT...AND WILL BE PARED BACK AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. A COUPLE MORE
REINFORCING FRONTS WILL PAST THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS AREA...THE
FIRST ON MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY AND THE SECOND ON THURSDAY. THIS
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WIND SURGES AND LULLS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL LIKELY BE PERIODICALLY REQUIRED FOR KEYS WATERS.


&&

.AVIATION...
UNTIL 12Z/8TH...ONLY SCT030-050 ARE ANTICIPATED AT THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON TERMINALS. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS OF 14 TO 18 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS OF 24 TO 28 KNOTS WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG CROSSWINDS
THIS AFTERNOON AT THE KEY WEST AIRPORT. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO NEAR
10 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...IN 1978...THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 48F WAS
RECORDED IN KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS HAVE BEEN KEPT SINCE 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  56  68  62  70 / 0 0 20 10
MARATHON  53  68  61  71 / 0 0 20 10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL KEYS WATERS
     GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....APA
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 071951
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
251 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - A COLD FRONT SWEPT THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS EARLIER THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY DIPPED BELOW 60...BUT ARE RECOVERING
INTO THE LOWER 60S. DEW POINTS HAVE FALLEN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
50 DEGREES. SKIES REMAIN OVERCAST...BUT THE BACK EDGE OF THE SOLID
DECK IS QUICKLY APPROACHING.

SHORT TERM UPDATE - FRESH TO STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH BREEZES WILL
GRADUALLY EASE BACK TODAY...BUT REMAIN WINDY. THE COOL FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH THE CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION NOW ZERO. LIGHT SPRINKLES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE UNTILTHE
LOWER LEVELS DRY FURTHER. WILL UPDATE TO FRESHEN TRANSITIONAL
WORDING.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH KEYS WATERS THIS MORNING...BRINGING WITH
IT STRONG NORTHWEST BREEZES. THESE BREEZES WILL SLOWLY EASE OFF THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL FLORIDA KEYS WATERS. SEAS AS HIGH AS 11 FEET ARE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ON WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND WESTERN FLORIDA
STRAITS WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...
UNTIL 00Z/8TH...VFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 040-060 WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY SCT050 ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER AT THE KEY
WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20
KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 24 TO 28 KNOTS WILL RESULT IN M0DERATE TO STRONG
CROSSWINDS AT THE KEY WEST AIRPORT.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....APA
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 070721
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
221 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES
OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE CLOUDY. WINDS OVER LAND ARE NORTHWEST AT
15 TO 20 MPH. C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE NORTHWEST NEAR 20
KNOTS...WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. A MOISTURE
STARVED COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS
LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. NO MORE THAN SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ARE NEEDED IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE ABOUT TEN DEGREES BELOW THEIR
TYPICAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF
MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER MOISTURE
STARVED COLD FRONT MAY PASS THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS THURSDAY. AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
SOUTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ONE INCH TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
ANTICIPATED PRESENCE OF THIS DRY AIR MASS OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL
BE RESPONSIBLE FOR NO MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE LONG TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF FEBRUARY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS TODAY
DUE TO SUSTAINED NORTHWEST TO NORTH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR
25 KNOTS THIS MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. NO ADVISORIES EXPECTED
MONDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR ALL KEYS
COASTAL WATERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. NO ADVISORIES
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS OF THE OFFSHORE GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL
WATERS THURSDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO PERSIST THROUGH 07/12Z...BEFORE THINNING AND
LIFTING OVER THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON INTERNATIONAL TERMINALS. WINDS
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AROUND 15 KNOTS...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH 12Z. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS
AND GUSTY...RESULTING IN MODERATE TO STRONG CROSSWINDS...ESPECIALLY
IN GUSTS...BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1957...1.78 INCHES
OF RAIN FELL AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THIS SET THE DAILY
RECORD FOR MAXIMUM RAINFALL MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON FEBRUARY 7TH...A
RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 59 YEARS LATER. RAINFALL RECORDS AT KEY
WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  66 56 68 62 / 20 - - 20
MARATHON  66 53 68 61 / 20 - - 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BS
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BWC

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 070359
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1059 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...
SKIES HAVE REMAINED CLOUDY SINCE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON WHEN AN
EXTENSIVE AREA OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AFFECTED ALL THE
FLORIDA KEYS. THIS AREA IS NOW EXITING THE UPPER KEYS AND ITS SURROUNDING
WATERS. THE RAINFALL ACCUMULATION IN KEY WEST AS OF 10 PM WAS OF 1.07
INCHES (SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR MORE INFO). A COLD FRONT PUSHED
THROUGH THE KEYS EARLIER THIS EVENING...BRINGING NORTHWEST WINDS OF
15 TO 20 MPH AND CONTINUE ITS WAY TO THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES
DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS HAVE BEEN STEADY IN THE MID 60S. ADDITIONAL
PATCHES OF RAIN HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF THE MARQUESAS
KEYS AND ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE KEYS OVERNIGHT.

.FORECAST...
WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND PICKING UP SPEED ACROSS
THE KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA...THE COLD FRONT MADE ITS WAY SOUTH OF THE
AREA. WHEN ZOOMING OUT AND ANALYZING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...IT LOOKS LIKE A LOW PRESSURE HAS STARTED TO
DEVELOP EAST OF NORTH FLORIDA OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS LOW WILL
STRENGTHENING OVERNIGHT AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST PARALLEL TO THE COAST
OF THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY. FOR THE KEYS...WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES WERE LOWERED FOR THE
REST OF TONIGHT...AS LOCAL WRF AND HRRR MODELS SUGGESTED THAT THE
MAIN RAINFALL EVENT HAS MOVED OUT OF OUR AREA...WITH POSSIBLY ANOTHER
PERIOD OF QUICK SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING. NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST WERE NECCESARY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS TURNED FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY TONIGHT AND INCREASED TO NEAR
20 KNOTS...AS REPORTED BY ALL THE AVAILABLE MARINE STATIONS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL
WATERS...AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT
AND ON SUNDAY. AND WITH THAT...SEAS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...PEAKING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT ACROSS BOTH THE KEY WEST
AND MARATHON ISLAND TERMINALS. NORTHWEST CROSSWINDS WINDS HAVE
INCREASED THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND THE
EXPECTATION IS FOR WINDS TO REMAIN ELEVATED AND GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER SOME EARLY MORNING PASSING SHOWERS...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MONTH TO DATE IN KEY WEST...2.81 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN AT THE
KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...EXCEEDING THE NORMAL MONTHLY TOTAL
FOR RAINFALL IN FEBRUARY BY 1.32 INCHES. RAINFALL RECORDS IN KEY WEST
DATE BACK TO THE YEAR 1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....FLING
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 070359
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1059 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...
SKIES HAVE REMAINED CLOUDY SINCE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON WHEN AN
EXTENSIVE AREA OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AFFECTED ALL THE
FLORIDA KEYS. THIS AREA IS NOW EXITING THE UPPER KEYS AND ITS SURROUNDING
WATERS. THE RAINFALL ACCUMULATION IN KEY WEST AS OF 10 PM WAS OF 1.07
INCHES (SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR MORE INFO). A COLD FRONT PUSHED
THROUGH THE KEYS EARLIER THIS EVENING...BRINGING NORTHWEST WINDS OF
15 TO 20 MPH AND CONTINUE ITS WAY TO THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES
DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS HAVE BEEN STEADY IN THE MID 60S. ADDITIONAL
PATCHES OF RAIN HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF THE MARQUESAS
KEYS AND ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE KEYS OVERNIGHT.

.FORECAST...
WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND PICKING UP SPEED ACROSS
THE KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA...THE COLD FRONT MADE ITS WAY SOUTH OF THE
AREA. WHEN ZOOMING OUT AND ANALYZING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...IT LOOKS LIKE A LOW PRESSURE HAS STARTED TO
DEVELOP EAST OF NORTH FLORIDA OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS LOW WILL
STRENGTHENING OVERNIGHT AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST PARALLEL TO THE COAST
OF THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY. FOR THE KEYS...WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES WERE LOWERED FOR THE
REST OF TONIGHT...AS LOCAL WRF AND HRRR MODELS SUGGESTED THAT THE
MAIN RAINFALL EVENT HAS MOVED OUT OF OUR AREA...WITH POSSIBLY ANOTHER
PERIOD OF QUICK SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING. NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST WERE NECCESARY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS TURNED FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY TONIGHT AND INCREASED TO NEAR
20 KNOTS...AS REPORTED BY ALL THE AVAILABLE MARINE STATIONS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL
WATERS...AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT
AND ON SUNDAY. AND WITH THAT...SEAS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...PEAKING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT ACROSS BOTH THE KEY WEST
AND MARATHON ISLAND TERMINALS. NORTHWEST CROSSWINDS WINDS HAVE
INCREASED THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND THE
EXPECTATION IS FOR WINDS TO REMAIN ELEVATED AND GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER SOME EARLY MORNING PASSING SHOWERS...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MONTH TO DATE IN KEY WEST...2.81 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN AT THE
KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...EXCEEDING THE NORMAL MONTHLY TOTAL
FOR RAINFALL IN FEBRUARY BY 1.32 INCHES. RAINFALL RECORDS IN KEY WEST
DATE BACK TO THE YEAR 1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....FLING
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 062036
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
336 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - A SURFACE TROUGH OFF THE FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST IS
DEVELOPING INTO A LOW CENTERED NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. AS A
RESULT...WINDS VARY QUITE A BIT ACROSS THE SERVICE AREA...WITH
GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST BREEZES ON OUR EASTERN ZONES...AND MODERATE
NORTHERLIES OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES. LARGE SCALE UPGLIDE THROUGH THE
LOWER LEVELS IS STRENGTHENING AS A POWERFUL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SWING EASTWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. A LARGE AREA
OF LIGHT RAIN CENTERED OVER THE LOWER AND MARQUESAS KEYS CONTINUES TO
EXPAND THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS THAT SAW AN EASTERLY FLOW WERE ABLE TO
GET INTO THE MID 70S...WHILE AREAS THAT BACKED NORTHERLY WERE CAPPED
IN THE LOWER 70S THIS MORNING.

FORECAST - THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ARC ACROSS FLORIDA TONIGHT...THEN
LIFT OUT NORTHEASTWARD ON SUNDAY...TAKING THE SURFACE LOW WITH IT. IN
THE MEAN TIME...WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO
NORTH...FLUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS. EXPECT
CONTINUES PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT...PERHAPS INTO EARLY
TOMORROW...DIMINISHING IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOT OF
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR WILL DROP TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 60 WITH DEW POINTS
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S BY SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB
THROUGH THE UPPER 60S.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY RELAX SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THEN A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE KEYS MONDAY EVENING.
THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE MOISTURE STARVED...AND
ONLY SLIGHT POPS WILL BE ADVERTISED. HOWEVER...THE WESTERLY WIND
SURGE WILL BE EQUALLY STRONG. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN NORTHERLY
AND RELAX HEADING INTO MID WEEK. THE CONTINUED COOL TRAJECTORY WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK.

THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...A HIGH CELL WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...AND SPREAD OUT INTO
THE ATLANTIC. AS A RESULT...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER NORTHEAST THEN
EAST. AS THE TRAJECTORY BECOMES MORE VEERED...TEMPERATURES AND
MOISTURE WILL ALSO GRADUALLY MODERATE...RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL.
RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN SLIM TO NONE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS WILL DRIVE A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE KEYS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL STEADILY STRENGTHEN OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT
FOR ALL KEYS WATERS TONIGHT...AS SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED OVER PRIORITIES OF KEYS WATERS. SEAS WILL CORRESPONDINGLY
BUILD...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS OVER OUR WESTERN WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THEN SURGE AGAIN LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE KEYS.
THEREAFTER...WINDS WILL TREND DOWNWARDS AND SLOWLY CLOCK AROUND TO
EAST NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SPREADS EASTWARD
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATS AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION...
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO A LARGE PERSISTENT AREA OF RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED SHOWERS. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...BECOMING STRONG OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT CROSS WINDS AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  60  67  56  67 / 90 20 -  -
MARATHON  59  67  54  67 / 90 20 -  -

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL KEYS WATERS
     GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....APA

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 061537
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1037 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS LINGERING OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND MID ATLANTIC REGION OF THE UNITED STATES.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS STRENGTHENING OFF OF FLORIDA`S ATLANTIC COAST HAS
HELPED TO OPEN UP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. AS A RESULT...SURFACE WINDS
HAVE RELAXED...AND ARE NOW GENTLE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. SOME SUNSHINE
THIS MORNING ALONG WITH THE WARMER FLOW HAS BROUGHT TEMPERATURES UP
TO NEAR 70 DEGREES...AND DEW POINTS ARE UP IN THE MID 60S. LOWER
LEVEL ASCENT IS STRENGTHENING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS
TODAY...IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS ASCENT IS AIDING IN THE MOISTENING AND
DESTABILIZING OF THE MID LEVELS. PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
SHOWERS HAVE PERSISTED ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA STRAITS...INTO OUR
GULF SIDE WATERS. THUS FAR...ONLY LIGHT RAIN HAS AFFECTED PORTIONS OF
THE ISLAND CHAIN UNDER HIGHLY CHANGEABLE SKIES.

SHORT TERM UPDATE - THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
SWING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY...AND INTO FLORIDA
TONIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN LOW LEVEL LIFT
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS. AS A RESULT...SKY COVER AND RAIN
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE DRAMATICALLY ACROSS THE KEYS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHES OF RAIN TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY INCREASE A
COUPLE MORE DEGREES DUE TO THE NORTHEAST FLOW AND SOME SUNSHINE EARLY
TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS KEYS
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...TURNING FROM NORTHEAST TO NORTH. WINDS WILL
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY VERY LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVENING AND TURN
NORTHWEST TO NORTH AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE REQUIRED FOR ALL KEYS WATERS TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW. WINDS ARE EXPECT TO BE STRONGEST TOMORROW MORNING WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
A WETTER PATTERN IS TAKING SHAPE...AND EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN INCREASE IN
INTENSITY. WITH THAT SAID...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL...DESPITE THE INCOMING LIGHT RAIN. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
GENTLE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST...TURNING NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE
STILL ON TRACK TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....APA
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 060819
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
319 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA
STRAITS. ELSEWHERE...KBYX DETECTS NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE
PARTLY CLOUDY. WINDS OVER LAND ARE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15
MPH. C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE NORTHEAST NEAR 15 KNOTS...WITH
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 60S.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AMPLIFY JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP NEAR THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT...BEFORE ACCELERATING TO
THE NORTHEAST. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS LATE TONIGHT. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST WILL BE HIGHEST TONIGHT AS CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE NEAR THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE ABOUT
TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A COLD FRONT SHOULD PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PASS OVER NORTH FLORIDA
THURSDAY NIGHT. AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD EXTEND
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA FRIDAY. NO MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ARE NEEDED IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF FEBRUARY.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE NORTHEAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ON ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS
TODAY. NO ADVISORIES EXPECTED TODAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. NO ADVISORIES EXPECTED MONDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS TUESDAY NIGHT. NO ADVISORIES
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
AT EYW AND MTH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH IFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AFTER SUNSET. SUSTAINED NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
NEAR 20 KNOTS FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 3000 FEET WILL BACK
TO NORTHWEST THIS EVENING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1912...1.82 INCHES
OF RAIN FELL IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR MAXIMUM
RAINFALL MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON FEBRUARY 6TH...A RECORD WHICH STILL
STANDS 104 YEARS LATER. RAINFALL RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO
1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  73 60 67 56 / 80 90 20 -
MARATHON  75 59 67 54 / 80 90 20 -

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BS
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BS

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 060338
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1038 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS THIS
EVENING AS A WEAK WARM THERMAL ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPED ATOP THE
COOL NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. CURRENTLY...AIR TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID
60S IN MOST KEYS ISLAND COMMUNITIES...AND THEY LIKELY WILL NOT BUDGE
FROM THERE OVERNIGHT. FRESH NORTHEAST BREEZES PERSIST...SOUTH OF A
LARGE CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE CELL CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES.

FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO EXISTING FORECASTS. AREAS OF RAIN ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS LOW-LEVEL WARM THERMAL ADVECTION INCREASES
LATE TONIGHT. SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A CLOUDY AND OCCASIONALLY RAINY
DAY...NOT AS COOL AS TODAY. MODERATE NORTHEAST BREEZES WILL PERSIST
BEFORE FRESHENING AGAIN WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL SURGE LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL ZONES. A STATIONARY
FRONT WILL LIE NEAR ANDROS ISLAND AND MEANDER OVERNIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS SATURDAY...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS BY TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...RANGING FROM 015
TO 030 AND POSSIBLY LOWER AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL AFFECT
BOTH TERMINALS AFTER MID-MORNING...REDUCING THE VISIBILITY TO 4 SM
AND EVEN LOWER WITH HEAVY RAIN. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
NORTH NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 KNOTS...BACKING FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR
     GMZ031-GMZ032-GMZ033-GMZ034-GMZ035-GMZ042-GMZ043-GMZ044-
     GMZ052-GMZ053-GMZ054-GMZ055-GMZ072-GMZ073-GMZ074-GMZ075.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 060338
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1038 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS THIS
EVENING AS A WEAK WARM THERMAL ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPED ATOP THE
COOL NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. CURRENTLY...AIR TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID
60S IN MOST KEYS ISLAND COMMUNITIES...AND THEY LIKELY WILL NOT BUDGE
FROM THERE OVERNIGHT. FRESH NORTHEAST BREEZES PERSIST...SOUTH OF A
LARGE CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE CELL CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES.

FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO EXISTING FORECASTS. AREAS OF RAIN ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS LOW-LEVEL WARM THERMAL ADVECTION INCREASES
LATE TONIGHT. SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A CLOUDY AND OCCASIONALLY RAINY
DAY...NOT AS COOL AS TODAY. MODERATE NORTHEAST BREEZES WILL PERSIST
BEFORE FRESHENING AGAIN WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL SURGE LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL ZONES. A STATIONARY
FRONT WILL LIE NEAR ANDROS ISLAND AND MEANDER OVERNIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS SATURDAY...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS BY TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...RANGING FROM 015
TO 030 AND POSSIBLY LOWER AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL AFFECT
BOTH TERMINALS AFTER MID-MORNING...REDUCING THE VISIBILITY TO 4 SM
AND EVEN LOWER WITH HEAVY RAIN. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
NORTH NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 KNOTS...BACKING FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR
     GMZ031-GMZ032-GMZ033-GMZ034-GMZ035-GMZ042-GMZ043-GMZ044-
     GMZ052-GMZ053-GMZ054-GMZ055-GMZ072-GMZ073-GMZ074-GMZ075.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 051954
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
255 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN AND SOUTHWARD...BUT
MOSTLY SUNNY TO THE WEST. MEANWHILE...LOCAL RADARS ARE NOT DETECTING
ANY PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA. SURFACE WISE...A
STATIONARY FRONT IS ALIGNED FROM THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS TO THE NORTH
COAST OF CUBA. WINDS ARE MOSTLY NORTH NEAR 20 KNOTS ACROSS OUR ENTIRE
MARINE DISTRICT.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
A STATIONARY FRONT ALIGNED FROM THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS TO ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL CUBA...WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. GIVEN THE APPROACHING
FRONT WITH MODEST UPGLIDE...IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
BE FROM LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...BEFORE DRIER
AIR SLOWLY FILTERS IN THEREAFTER. HENCE...LOW CHANCE POPS FOR AFTER
MIDNIGHT WILL BE INSERTED WITH LIKELY POPS MAINLY FROM NOON SATURDAY
UNTIL MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER
AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 70 AND 75 ON SATURDAY...BEFORE
DROPPING BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
QUICK CHANGES WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT LIKELY TO CROSS OUR AREA MONDAY
NIGHT OR TUESDAY...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK BEFORE SOME MODERATION OCCURS ON FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...GIVEN
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED
AT BEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&


.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL
WATERS FOR THE BALANCE OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE WINDS
SLACKEN TONIGHT AND FOR MOST OF SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND BECOME STRONG LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE REQUIRED AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AT THE
ISLAND TERMINALS...WITH BASES NEAR 3000 FT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHEAST NEAR 15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SLACKEN OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  64 72 63 67 / 30 70 70 20
MARATHON  64 74 62 67 / 30 70 70 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........APA
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....SD
DATA ACQUISITION......SC/BF
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 051513
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1011 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
EARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE PHOTOGRAPHS SHOW SKIES VARY FROM MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE UPPER KEYS. DUE TO THE
NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH AND RESIDUAL COLD AIR ADVECTION...TEMPERATURES
ARE HOLDING IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. SURFACE WISE...THE
COLD FRONT WHICH BLASTED THROUGH THE ISLAND CHAIN OVERNIGHT IS NOW DRAPED
ACROSS ANDROS ISLAND TO THE NORTH COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA. WINDS ARE NORTH
RANGING FROM 21 KNOTS AT LONG KEY TO 29 KNOTS AT SMITH SHOAL LIGHT.

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...
IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...MUCH COOLER...DRIER AND WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED. THE PROBLEMATIC FORECAST ELEMENT WILL BE CLOUD COVER...WITH
CHANGEABLE SKIES EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE IN THE UPPER
60S ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN. SINCE A FORECAST UPDATE WAS ALREADY SENT...NO
ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENT IS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS
FOR THE BALANCE OF TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.
VFR CEILINGS WILL CREEP WESTWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA KEYS...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN BASED BETWEEN 3000 AND 3500 FT. SURFACE WINDS BE NORTHERLY AT
15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS...RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT
CROSSWINDS. EXPECT WINDS TO SLOWLY TURN NORTHEAST AND TREND
DOWNWARDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT REMAIN BREEZY.
&&

.CLIMATE...A LOW TEMPERATURE OF 45F AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
TIED THE RECORD FOR THE DATE. TEMPERATURE RECORDS HAVE BEEN KEPT SINCE
1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........APA
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....SD
DATA COLLECTION.......SC

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