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000
FXUS62 KKEY 251844
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
245 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB)...LATEST IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF 200 PM
THIS AFTERNOON DEPICT THE CENTER OF A REGIONAL SCALE MIDDLE AND
UPPER RIDGE...(500-200 MB) IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 28 NORTH 72 WEST. THE
CENTER OF A TUTT (TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH) LOW...AT ABOUT
250 MB...IS STILL LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25
NORTH 85 WEST. AS A RESULT...DEEP MID AND UPPER SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
INDICATED FROM 500 MB UP.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER LEVELS...(SURFACE TO 700
MB)...VISIBLE IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH LATEST AVAILABLE MARINE AND LAND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS AS OF 200 PM DETAILS THAT THE
FLORIDA KEYS REMAINS SOUTH OF THE 1020 MB SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A 1025 MB ANTICYCLONIC RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 30 NORTH 55 WEST. ACROSS
THE TROPICS...THE AXIS OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED
BISECTING THE MIDDLE OF HISPANIOLA.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 200 PM...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
SHOWS THAT SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE ISLAND
CHAIN AND SURROUNDING WATERS. KEY WEST RADAR ONLY DETECTS A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DOTTING MOSTLY THE ATLANTIC WATERS.
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DEWPOINT (HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY) ACROSS
THE ISLANDS ARE CREATING TORRID CONDITIONS...AND HAVE REACHED AROUND
90 DEGREES OR ABOVE WITH 92 DEGREES REACHED AT THE KEY WEST AIRPORT
AND 94 DEGREES AT MARATHON AIRPORT BRIEFLY COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...CREATING HEAT INDICES BRIEFLY BETWEEN
105-110 DEGREES. C-MAN STATIONS ALONG THE REEF AND FLORIDA BAY ARE
SOUTHEAST NEAR 5 KNOTS.

.FORECAST...SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE LESS THAN NORMAL AS 500 MB RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE KEYS
WITH RISING HEIGHTS. THIS WILL OCCUR IN COMBINATION WITH THE
ENCROACHMENT OF THE 850-700 MB SAL (SAHARAN AIR LAYER) WHICH IS
PROGGED IN THE MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLANDS
FROM EAST TO WEST. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BUT AFTER
TONIGHT...FORECAST PWAT (PRECIPITABLE WATER) WILL FALL FROM NEAR
1.75 INCHES...DOWN TO NEAR OR BELOW 1.25 INCHES ON
SATURDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVERTISE ONLY ISOLATED POPS TONIGHT...WITH UNFAVORABLE WIND
DIRECTION FOR CUMULUS CLOUDLINE THIS EVENING...AND DIME POPS FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE OTHER STORY WILL BE WHAT IS NORMALLY UNSPOKEN AND A GIVEN HERE
IN THE KEYS AS WE APPROACH AUGUST AND THAT IS THE HEAT...BUT GIVEN
SLIGHTLY LESS THAN NORMAL CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL ACCOMPANY THE
AFOREMENTIONED SAL AND RIDGING...EXPECT HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES TO
BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. THESE TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 90S THIS COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE HIGH 70S TO AROUND 80
MAY INTRODUCE HEAT INDICES AROUND 110 DEGREES. NOTE WELL...A HEAT
ADVISORY MAY BE ISSUED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IF THE PROJECTED HEAT
INDEX REMAINS EQUAL TO OR GREATER THAN 108 DEGREE FAHRENHEIT FOR TWO
OR MORE CONSECUTIVE HOURS AT OBSERVING STATIONS.

.MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODEL INDICATIONS ARE STILL BRINGING A
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE KEYS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
LINGERING MOISTURE AROUND DURING TUESDAY. SIGNALS ARE NOT THAT
STRONG BUT GIVEN DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE AND LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE AXIS WILL PROMPT GOOD MESOSCALE FORCING DURING
MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
POPS IN THE GRIDS...WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY.

.EXTENDED...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WEAK SURFACE TO MIDDLE
LEVEL RIDGING RIGHT NEAR THE KEYS COMBINED WITH A MODERATELY MOIST
LOWER TO MID TROPOSPHERE WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUDLINES WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...AND CLIMATOLOGICAL LOW
CHANCE...30% POPS.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED NEAR
THE KEYS AND ADJOINING WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS...WHERE GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES DUE TO INCREASING DISTANCE FROM
THE SURFACE RIDGING. THEREAFTER THE AXIS OF A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE
WILL IMPACT THE KEYS...MORESO ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...AND LESS
SO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO
GENTLE...EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AN STORMS. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND A
WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN MOVES INTO THE KEYS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON ISLAND TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR CIGS
POSSIBLE WITHIN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING.

&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  82  92  83  92  82  / 20  10  10  10  20
MARATHON  83  94  84  94  82  / 20  10  10  10  20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/GRIDS.........DAF
AVIATION/NOWCASTS...........11/DAF
DATA COLLECTION.............BF/EV

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 251844
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
245 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB)...LATEST IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF 200 PM
THIS AFTERNOON DEPICT THE CENTER OF A REGIONAL SCALE MIDDLE AND
UPPER RIDGE...(500-200 MB) IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 28 NORTH 72 WEST. THE
CENTER OF A TUTT (TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH) LOW...AT ABOUT
250 MB...IS STILL LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25
NORTH 85 WEST. AS A RESULT...DEEP MID AND UPPER SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
INDICATED FROM 500 MB UP.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER LEVELS...(SURFACE TO 700
MB)...VISIBLE IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH LATEST AVAILABLE MARINE AND LAND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS AS OF 200 PM DETAILS THAT THE
FLORIDA KEYS REMAINS SOUTH OF THE 1020 MB SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A 1025 MB ANTICYCLONIC RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 30 NORTH 55 WEST. ACROSS
THE TROPICS...THE AXIS OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED
BISECTING THE MIDDLE OF HISPANIOLA.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 200 PM...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
SHOWS THAT SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE ISLAND
CHAIN AND SURROUNDING WATERS. KEY WEST RADAR ONLY DETECTS A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DOTTING MOSTLY THE ATLANTIC WATERS.
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DEWPOINT (HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY) ACROSS
THE ISLANDS ARE CREATING TORRID CONDITIONS...AND HAVE REACHED AROUND
90 DEGREES OR ABOVE WITH 92 DEGREES REACHED AT THE KEY WEST AIRPORT
AND 94 DEGREES AT MARATHON AIRPORT BRIEFLY COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...CREATING HEAT INDICES BRIEFLY BETWEEN
105-110 DEGREES. C-MAN STATIONS ALONG THE REEF AND FLORIDA BAY ARE
SOUTHEAST NEAR 5 KNOTS.

.FORECAST...SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE LESS THAN NORMAL AS 500 MB RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE KEYS
WITH RISING HEIGHTS. THIS WILL OCCUR IN COMBINATION WITH THE
ENCROACHMENT OF THE 850-700 MB SAL (SAHARAN AIR LAYER) WHICH IS
PROGGED IN THE MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLANDS
FROM EAST TO WEST. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BUT AFTER
TONIGHT...FORECAST PWAT (PRECIPITABLE WATER) WILL FALL FROM NEAR
1.75 INCHES...DOWN TO NEAR OR BELOW 1.25 INCHES ON
SATURDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVERTISE ONLY ISOLATED POPS TONIGHT...WITH UNFAVORABLE WIND
DIRECTION FOR CUMULUS CLOUDLINE THIS EVENING...AND DIME POPS FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE OTHER STORY WILL BE WHAT IS NORMALLY UNSPOKEN AND A GIVEN HERE
IN THE KEYS AS WE APPROACH AUGUST AND THAT IS THE HEAT...BUT GIVEN
SLIGHTLY LESS THAN NORMAL CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL ACCOMPANY THE
AFOREMENTIONED SAL AND RIDGING...EXPECT HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES TO
BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. THESE TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 90S THIS COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE HIGH 70S TO AROUND 80
MAY INTRODUCE HEAT INDICES AROUND 110 DEGREES. NOTE WELL...A HEAT
ADVISORY MAY BE ISSUED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IF THE PROJECTED HEAT
INDEX REMAINS EQUAL TO OR GREATER THAN 108 DEGREE FAHRENHEIT FOR TWO
OR MORE CONSECUTIVE HOURS AT OBSERVING STATIONS.

.MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODEL INDICATIONS ARE STILL BRINGING A
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE KEYS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
LINGERING MOISTURE AROUND DURING TUESDAY. SIGNALS ARE NOT THAT
STRONG BUT GIVEN DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE AND LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE AXIS WILL PROMPT GOOD MESOSCALE FORCING DURING
MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
POPS IN THE GRIDS...WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY.

.EXTENDED...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WEAK SURFACE TO MIDDLE
LEVEL RIDGING RIGHT NEAR THE KEYS COMBINED WITH A MODERATELY MOIST
LOWER TO MID TROPOSPHERE WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUDLINES WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...AND CLIMATOLOGICAL LOW
CHANCE...30% POPS.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED NEAR
THE KEYS AND ADJOINING WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS...WHERE GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES DUE TO INCREASING DISTANCE FROM
THE SURFACE RIDGING. THEREAFTER THE AXIS OF A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE
WILL IMPACT THE KEYS...MORESO ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...AND LESS
SO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO
GENTLE...EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AN STORMS. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND A
WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN MOVES INTO THE KEYS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON ISLAND TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR CIGS
POSSIBLE WITHIN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING.

&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  82  92  83  92  82  / 20  10  10  10  20
MARATHON  83  94  84  94  82  / 20  10  10  10  20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/GRIDS.........DAF
AVIATION/NOWCASTS...........11/DAF
DATA COLLECTION.............BF/EV

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 251339
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
940 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB)...LATEST IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF 900 AM
DEPICTS THAT THE CENTER OF A REGIONAL SCALE MIDDLE AND UPPER
RIDGE...(500-200 MB) IS LOCATED NEAR 26 NORTH 74 WEST. THE CENTER OF
A TUTT (TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH) LOW...AT ABOUT 250
MB...IS LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25 NORTH 85
WEST. AS A RESULT...DEEP MID AND UPPER SOUTHERLY FLOW IS INDICATED
FROM 500 MB UP...WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER LEVELS...(SURFACE TO 700 MB)...IR
IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH LATEST AVAILABLE MARINE AND LAND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS AS OF 900 AM DETAIL THAT THE FLORIDA KEYS
REMAIN JUST BENEATH THE 1020 MB SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A 1025 MB
ANTICYCLONIC RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 30 NORTH 55 WEST. ACROSS THE
TROPICS...THE AXIS OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ACROSS THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. AS A RESULT...THE 12Z SOUNDING ILLUSTRATED
GENTLE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO 700 MB...AND A
MODERATELY MOIST LOWER TO MID TROPOSPHERE WITH (PWAT) PRECIPITABLE
WATER AT 1.85 INCHES...UP A QUARTER INCH FROM 24 HOURS PRIOR.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 900 AM...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN AND
SURROUNDING WATERS. KEY WEST RADAR ONLY DETECTS A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DISPERSED ACROSS THE GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLANDS ARE TYPICALLY TORRID AND HAVE RISEN
INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
70S.

.FORECAST...SHORT TERM...FOR THE REST OF TODAY...WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING WILL REMAIN NEAR THE KEYS THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE
DAY...MAINTAINING A GENTLE TO LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.
LOWER TO MID TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN CONSTANT BETWEEN
1.75 AND 2.00 INCHES...AND THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN THE LATEST
GFS MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATION THAT THE SURFACE TO 500 MB
WINDS MAY BACK MORE TO SLIGHTLY NORTH OF EAST...SETTING THE STAGE
FOR A POSSIBLE CLOUDLINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IF
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE TO OCCUR RIGHT OVER THE
ISLANDS...THEN HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ADVERTISED ALONG THE
ISLAND CHAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST...06Z RUN OF THE WRF DOES
NOT SHOW THE CLOUDLINE ATTM EITHER BUT...ONCE AGAIN SINCE EVIDENCE
IS NOT THAT SOLID AT THIS POINT...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT AN
UPDATE WOULD BE PERFORMED CLOSER TO NOON.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MARINE
DISTRICT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY
OF A CLOUDLINE IN HAWK CHANNEL...OR EVEN IN THE IMMEDIATE GULF
WATERS AND FLORIDA BAY WITHIN A FEW MILE NORTH OF THE KEYS ISLAND
CHAIN. MARINERS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR WATERSPOUTS...WHICH
FORM ALONG THE EDGE OF LONG DARK FLAT CLOUD BASES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS
TODAY...WITH ONLY A SLIM CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND THE KEYS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF
THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/GRIDS.........DAF
AVIATION/NOWCASTS...........11
DATA COLLECTION.............BF

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 251339
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
940 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB)...LATEST IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF 900 AM
DEPICTS THAT THE CENTER OF A REGIONAL SCALE MIDDLE AND UPPER
RIDGE...(500-200 MB) IS LOCATED NEAR 26 NORTH 74 WEST. THE CENTER OF
A TUTT (TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH) LOW...AT ABOUT 250
MB...IS LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25 NORTH 85
WEST. AS A RESULT...DEEP MID AND UPPER SOUTHERLY FLOW IS INDICATED
FROM 500 MB UP...WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER LEVELS...(SURFACE TO 700 MB)...IR
IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH LATEST AVAILABLE MARINE AND LAND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS AS OF 900 AM DETAIL THAT THE FLORIDA KEYS
REMAIN JUST BENEATH THE 1020 MB SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A 1025 MB
ANTICYCLONIC RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 30 NORTH 55 WEST. ACROSS THE
TROPICS...THE AXIS OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ACROSS THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. AS A RESULT...THE 12Z SOUNDING ILLUSTRATED
GENTLE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO 700 MB...AND A
MODERATELY MOIST LOWER TO MID TROPOSPHERE WITH (PWAT) PRECIPITABLE
WATER AT 1.85 INCHES...UP A QUARTER INCH FROM 24 HOURS PRIOR.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 900 AM...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN AND
SURROUNDING WATERS. KEY WEST RADAR ONLY DETECTS A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DISPERSED ACROSS THE GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLANDS ARE TYPICALLY TORRID AND HAVE RISEN
INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
70S.

.FORECAST...SHORT TERM...FOR THE REST OF TODAY...WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING WILL REMAIN NEAR THE KEYS THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE
DAY...MAINTAINING A GENTLE TO LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.
LOWER TO MID TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN CONSTANT BETWEEN
1.75 AND 2.00 INCHES...AND THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN THE LATEST
GFS MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATION THAT THE SURFACE TO 500 MB
WINDS MAY BACK MORE TO SLIGHTLY NORTH OF EAST...SETTING THE STAGE
FOR A POSSIBLE CLOUDLINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IF
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE TO OCCUR RIGHT OVER THE
ISLANDS...THEN HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ADVERTISED ALONG THE
ISLAND CHAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST...06Z RUN OF THE WRF DOES
NOT SHOW THE CLOUDLINE ATTM EITHER BUT...ONCE AGAIN SINCE EVIDENCE
IS NOT THAT SOLID AT THIS POINT...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT AN
UPDATE WOULD BE PERFORMED CLOSER TO NOON.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MARINE
DISTRICT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY
OF A CLOUDLINE IN HAWK CHANNEL...OR EVEN IN THE IMMEDIATE GULF
WATERS AND FLORIDA BAY WITHIN A FEW MILE NORTH OF THE KEYS ISLAND
CHAIN. MARINERS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR WATERSPOUTS...WHICH
FORM ALONG THE EDGE OF LONG DARK FLAT CLOUD BASES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS
TODAY...WITH ONLY A SLIM CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND THE KEYS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF
THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/GRIDS.........DAF
AVIATION/NOWCASTS...........11
DATA COLLECTION.............BF

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 251149
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
749 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS TODAY...WITH ONLY
A SLIM CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND
THE KEYS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST.

&&

$$

AVIATION...11

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 251149
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
749 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS TODAY...WITH ONLY
A SLIM CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND
THE KEYS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST.

&&

$$

AVIATION...11

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 250838
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
438 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE SERVICE AREA...WITH ISOLATED
SHORT LIVED SHOWERS STREAMING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...MAINLY ALONG
THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF OUR MARINE ZONES. WINDS ARE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT
5 TO 10 KNOTS ACROSS MOST OF THE MARINE OBSERVING STATIONS...WITH
LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE ISLAND STATIONS.
TEMPERATURES ARE HOVERING IN THE MID 80S ACROSS THE KEYS...AND DEW
POINTS ARE SULTRY IN THE MID 70S. LAST EVENING SOUNDING SHOWED VERY
FEW THERMODYNAMIC CHANGES THROUGHOUT THE PROFILE...WITH THE ONLY
NOTABLE CHANGE BEING A NOTICEABLE 24 HOUR CHANGE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...BRINGING THE PWAT VALUE UP TO 1.87 INCHES.

.SHORT TERM...
VERY FEW CHANGES ARE REQUIRED THIS FORECAST CYCLE. MODEL CONSENSUS
SHOWS TWO PEAK DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PERIODS IN THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
THE FIRST ONE WILL CROSS THE KEYS TODAY ON THE BACK END OF A A
PASSING TUTT LOW...BUT WITH DIVERGENT WINDS AT LOW LEVELS AND NO
DEEP LAYER SUPPORT FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECT THAT CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS SHOULD SEE LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH TONIGHT. THEREAFTER... A DEEP
SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND...BRINGING THE KEYS
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND MINIMAL SUMMERTIME POP VALUES. A TROPICAL
WAVE IS SET TO CROSS THE KEYS EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT MODELS REMAIN
SPLIT ON THE EXACT TIMING OF DYNAMICAL SUPPORT AND DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE PROFILES WITH THIS WAVE AT THIS TIME. EXPECT THAT POP VALUES
IN MOS GUIDANCE OUTPUT REMAINS UNDERDONE FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...BUT OWING TO THE DISCREPANCIES IN TIMING OF THE
WAVE...EXPECT THAT LOW END CHANCE POPS WILL HANDLE THE SITUATION
BEST. TEMPS...WINDS...AND SKY COVER VALUES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR
SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY BENIGN ACROSS ALL NEARSHORE
WATERS THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. NIGHTLY WIND SURGES ACROSS THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA MAY CAUSE RESIDUAL SEAS TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE DAYTIME PERIODS THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT EXPECT
ANOTHER DIFFUSE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BRING LIGHTER WINDS TO ALL
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT
24 HOURS. SUSTAINED EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS EXPECTED
FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 4000 FEET.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1880...THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST WAS 96 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON JULY 25TH...A RECORD
WHICH STILL STANDS 134 YEARS LATER. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST
DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........MSB
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BS

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 250838
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
438 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE SERVICE AREA...WITH ISOLATED
SHORT LIVED SHOWERS STREAMING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...MAINLY ALONG
THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF OUR MARINE ZONES. WINDS ARE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT
5 TO 10 KNOTS ACROSS MOST OF THE MARINE OBSERVING STATIONS...WITH
LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE ISLAND STATIONS.
TEMPERATURES ARE HOVERING IN THE MID 80S ACROSS THE KEYS...AND DEW
POINTS ARE SULTRY IN THE MID 70S. LAST EVENING SOUNDING SHOWED VERY
FEW THERMODYNAMIC CHANGES THROUGHOUT THE PROFILE...WITH THE ONLY
NOTABLE CHANGE BEING A NOTICEABLE 24 HOUR CHANGE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...BRINGING THE PWAT VALUE UP TO 1.87 INCHES.

.SHORT TERM...
VERY FEW CHANGES ARE REQUIRED THIS FORECAST CYCLE. MODEL CONSENSUS
SHOWS TWO PEAK DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PERIODS IN THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
THE FIRST ONE WILL CROSS THE KEYS TODAY ON THE BACK END OF A A
PASSING TUTT LOW...BUT WITH DIVERGENT WINDS AT LOW LEVELS AND NO
DEEP LAYER SUPPORT FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECT THAT CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS SHOULD SEE LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH TONIGHT. THEREAFTER... A DEEP
SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND...BRINGING THE KEYS
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND MINIMAL SUMMERTIME POP VALUES. A TROPICAL
WAVE IS SET TO CROSS THE KEYS EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT MODELS REMAIN
SPLIT ON THE EXACT TIMING OF DYNAMICAL SUPPORT AND DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE PROFILES WITH THIS WAVE AT THIS TIME. EXPECT THAT POP VALUES
IN MOS GUIDANCE OUTPUT REMAINS UNDERDONE FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...BUT OWING TO THE DISCREPANCIES IN TIMING OF THE
WAVE...EXPECT THAT LOW END CHANCE POPS WILL HANDLE THE SITUATION
BEST. TEMPS...WINDS...AND SKY COVER VALUES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR
SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY BENIGN ACROSS ALL NEARSHORE
WATERS THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. NIGHTLY WIND SURGES ACROSS THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA MAY CAUSE RESIDUAL SEAS TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE DAYTIME PERIODS THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT EXPECT
ANOTHER DIFFUSE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BRING LIGHTER WINDS TO ALL
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT
24 HOURS. SUSTAINED EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS EXPECTED
FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 4000 FEET.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1880...THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST WAS 96 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON JULY 25TH...A RECORD
WHICH STILL STANDS 134 YEARS LATER. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST
DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........MSB
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BS

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 250134
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
930 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
OUTSIDE OF BRIEF AND SMALL ISOLATED SHOWERS DURING THE MID AND LATE
AFTERNOON...ITS BEEN EXTREMELY QUIET WITH LOCAL RADARS NOT DETECTING
ANY PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN OUR ENTIRE COUNTY WARNING AREA. ALONG
THE ISLAND CHAIN...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF LESS THAN 10 MPH ARE
KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. SURFACE WISE...A
TENUOUS WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE IS REACHING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA...RESULTING IN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 8 KNOTS ALONG
THE REEF. OTHERWISE...OUR EVENING SOUNDING REVEALS SOME DRIER AIR
HAS SEEPED IN BELOW 500 MB OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS...WHILE A LIGHT
AND CHAOTIC WIND TRAJECTORY REMAINS FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 600 MB.

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
A DEEP LAYERED...EAST-WEST ORIENTED (SURFACE-500 MB) WESTERN
ATLANTIC ANTICYCLONE WILL HOLD FIRM ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND
WELL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AS AN UPPER LOW (200-300 MB) JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE EXTREME WESTERN TIP OF CUBA CRAWLS SLOWLY WEST
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. WITH THE
STRENGTHENING LARGE SCALE SINKING MOTION...DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO PENETRATE INTO OUR REGION WITH A LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW. THEREFORE...ONLY ISOLATED 10 TO 20 PERCENT POPS WITH
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
ISLAND CHAIN. IN ADDITION...ITS EXTREMELY UNLIKELY THAT THE
TEMPERATURE WILL DROP BELOW 85 DEGREES AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT BETWEEN NOW AND 1 AM EDT...WHICH WILL BREAK THE PREVIOUS
MAX/MIN RECORD OF 84 DEGREES LAST SET IN 2011.

&&

.MARINE...
OUR EVENING RAWINDSONDE DEPICTS NORTHEAST WINDS OF 7 AND 6 KNOTS AT
1 AND 2 THOUSAND FEET RESPECTIVELY...WHILE THE KBYX VWP SHOWS EAST
WINDS OF 10 KNOTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN
WITH THE NEBULOUS WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE LYING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA...RESULTING IN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS
EXCEPT 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON THE OUTER WATERS BEYOND 20 NM SOUTHEAST OF
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. OTHERWISE...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ARE ANTICIPATED AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AT THE KEY WEST
AND MARATHON TERMINALS. SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUT OF
THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...APA
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....................JR
DATA ACQUISITION.....................EV
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 250134
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
930 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
OUTSIDE OF BRIEF AND SMALL ISOLATED SHOWERS DURING THE MID AND LATE
AFTERNOON...ITS BEEN EXTREMELY QUIET WITH LOCAL RADARS NOT DETECTING
ANY PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN OUR ENTIRE COUNTY WARNING AREA. ALONG
THE ISLAND CHAIN...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF LESS THAN 10 MPH ARE
KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. SURFACE WISE...A
TENUOUS WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE IS REACHING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA...RESULTING IN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 8 KNOTS ALONG
THE REEF. OTHERWISE...OUR EVENING SOUNDING REVEALS SOME DRIER AIR
HAS SEEPED IN BELOW 500 MB OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS...WHILE A LIGHT
AND CHAOTIC WIND TRAJECTORY REMAINS FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 600 MB.

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
A DEEP LAYERED...EAST-WEST ORIENTED (SURFACE-500 MB) WESTERN
ATLANTIC ANTICYCLONE WILL HOLD FIRM ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND
WELL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AS AN UPPER LOW (200-300 MB) JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE EXTREME WESTERN TIP OF CUBA CRAWLS SLOWLY WEST
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. WITH THE
STRENGTHENING LARGE SCALE SINKING MOTION...DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO PENETRATE INTO OUR REGION WITH A LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW. THEREFORE...ONLY ISOLATED 10 TO 20 PERCENT POPS WITH
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
ISLAND CHAIN. IN ADDITION...ITS EXTREMELY UNLIKELY THAT THE
TEMPERATURE WILL DROP BELOW 85 DEGREES AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT BETWEEN NOW AND 1 AM EDT...WHICH WILL BREAK THE PREVIOUS
MAX/MIN RECORD OF 84 DEGREES LAST SET IN 2011.

&&

.MARINE...
OUR EVENING RAWINDSONDE DEPICTS NORTHEAST WINDS OF 7 AND 6 KNOTS AT
1 AND 2 THOUSAND FEET RESPECTIVELY...WHILE THE KBYX VWP SHOWS EAST
WINDS OF 10 KNOTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN
WITH THE NEBULOUS WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE LYING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA...RESULTING IN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS
EXCEPT 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON THE OUTER WATERS BEYOND 20 NM SOUTHEAST OF
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. OTHERWISE...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ARE ANTICIPATED AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AT THE KEY WEST
AND MARATHON TERMINALS. SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUT OF
THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...APA
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....................JR
DATA ACQUISITION.....................EV
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 241756
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
200 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB)...LATEST IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF 100 PM
THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTS THE CENTER OF A REGIONAL SCALE MIDDLE AND
UPPER RIDGE...(500-200 MB) THAT IS CENTERED NEAR 28 NORTH 75 WEST.
THE CENTER OF A STRETCHING TUTT (TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH)
LOW...AT ABOUT 250 MB...IS STILL LOCATED NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
AS A RESULT...LATEST VWP (VAD WIND PROFILE) ILLUSTRATED DEEP MID AND
UPPER SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS IN PLACE OVER THE KEYS FROM 500 MB ON
UP.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER LEVELS...(SURFACE TO 700 MB)...AS OF
100 PM...A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. CLOSER
TO THE FLORIDA KEYS...1018-1020 MB MESOSCALE RIDGING IS SITUATED
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 100 PM...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SKIES DETAILS
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE KEYS ISLAND CHAIN AND SURROUNDING
WATERS. KEY WEST RADAR DETECTS ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE
GULF WATERS WITHIN 10 NM NORTH OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER FLORIDA
KEYS...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS.

.FORECAST...SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...INDICATIONS OF A DRIER PATTERN CONTINUE IN
THE SHORT TERM. EXPECT 500 MB HEIGHT RISES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND
THE KEYS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MIDDLE ATLANTIC RIDGING OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC SPREADS SOUTHWESTWARD FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO ILLUSTRATE COLUMNAR PWAT NEAR
1.75 INCHES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THEN...THE LEADING EDGE OF
MUCH DRIER LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVEL DRY AIR (850-700 MB) ASSOCIATED
WITH AN APPROACHING SAHARAN AIR LAYER WHICH IS NOW BETWEEN 20 AND 25
NORTH AND 70 AND 75 WEST...WILL LIKELY PUNCH IN ACROSS THE KEYS.
THIS IS ILLUSTRATED BY LATEST AVAILABLE ECMWF AND GFS MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. AS A RESULT...COLUMNAR PWAT WILL FALL TO AROUND 1.25
INCHES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN CLIMBING BACK UP TO AROUND
1.75 INCHES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SURFACE RIDGING TO
REMAIN NORTH OF THE KEYS THROUGH THE PERIOD...OSCILLATING TO NEAR
THE KEYS TOMORROW...BUT BY AND LARGE REMAINING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GIVEN THE DRIER THEN NORMAL PATTERN...HIGH AND
LOWER TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.EXTENDED...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE KEYS LONGITUDE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SURFACE WINDS ARE INDICATED TO VERY LIGHT
THROUGH THE PASSING OF THE WAVE. WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD WITH MIDDLE
OF THE ROAD CHANCE POPS...40%...UNTIL MORE INFORMATION SUGGESTS THAT
THE WAVE WILL HAVE LESS OR MORE IMPACT ATTM. THEREAFTER WEAK RIDGING
TO THE NORTH OF THE KEYS COMBINED WITH NORMAL BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE HAS PROMPTED NORMAL LOW CHANCE (CLIMATOLOGICAL RAIN CHANCE)
NEAR THE KEYS...OR AT 30%.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...EXCEPT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. NO HEADLINES OR ADVISORIES EXPECTED. LIGHT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AT THE ISLAND
TERMINALS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO
10 KNOTS.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  82 91 82 90 82  / 20 20 20 10 10
MARATHON  81 92 81 93 82  / 20 20 20 10 10

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/GRIDS.........DAF
AVIATION/NOWCASTS...........11
DATA COLLECTION.............BF/MP

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 241756
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
200 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB)...LATEST IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF 100 PM
THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTS THE CENTER OF A REGIONAL SCALE MIDDLE AND
UPPER RIDGE...(500-200 MB) THAT IS CENTERED NEAR 28 NORTH 75 WEST.
THE CENTER OF A STRETCHING TUTT (TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH)
LOW...AT ABOUT 250 MB...IS STILL LOCATED NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
AS A RESULT...LATEST VWP (VAD WIND PROFILE) ILLUSTRATED DEEP MID AND
UPPER SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS IN PLACE OVER THE KEYS FROM 500 MB ON
UP.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER LEVELS...(SURFACE TO 700 MB)...AS OF
100 PM...A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. CLOSER
TO THE FLORIDA KEYS...1018-1020 MB MESOSCALE RIDGING IS SITUATED
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 100 PM...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SKIES DETAILS
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE KEYS ISLAND CHAIN AND SURROUNDING
WATERS. KEY WEST RADAR DETECTS ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE
GULF WATERS WITHIN 10 NM NORTH OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER FLORIDA
KEYS...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS.

.FORECAST...SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...INDICATIONS OF A DRIER PATTERN CONTINUE IN
THE SHORT TERM. EXPECT 500 MB HEIGHT RISES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND
THE KEYS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MIDDLE ATLANTIC RIDGING OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC SPREADS SOUTHWESTWARD FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO ILLUSTRATE COLUMNAR PWAT NEAR
1.75 INCHES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THEN...THE LEADING EDGE OF
MUCH DRIER LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVEL DRY AIR (850-700 MB) ASSOCIATED
WITH AN APPROACHING SAHARAN AIR LAYER WHICH IS NOW BETWEEN 20 AND 25
NORTH AND 70 AND 75 WEST...WILL LIKELY PUNCH IN ACROSS THE KEYS.
THIS IS ILLUSTRATED BY LATEST AVAILABLE ECMWF AND GFS MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. AS A RESULT...COLUMNAR PWAT WILL FALL TO AROUND 1.25
INCHES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN CLIMBING BACK UP TO AROUND
1.75 INCHES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SURFACE RIDGING TO
REMAIN NORTH OF THE KEYS THROUGH THE PERIOD...OSCILLATING TO NEAR
THE KEYS TOMORROW...BUT BY AND LARGE REMAINING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GIVEN THE DRIER THEN NORMAL PATTERN...HIGH AND
LOWER TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.EXTENDED...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE KEYS LONGITUDE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SURFACE WINDS ARE INDICATED TO VERY LIGHT
THROUGH THE PASSING OF THE WAVE. WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD WITH MIDDLE
OF THE ROAD CHANCE POPS...40%...UNTIL MORE INFORMATION SUGGESTS THAT
THE WAVE WILL HAVE LESS OR MORE IMPACT ATTM. THEREAFTER WEAK RIDGING
TO THE NORTH OF THE KEYS COMBINED WITH NORMAL BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE HAS PROMPTED NORMAL LOW CHANCE (CLIMATOLOGICAL RAIN CHANCE)
NEAR THE KEYS...OR AT 30%.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...EXCEPT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. NO HEADLINES OR ADVISORIES EXPECTED. LIGHT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AT THE ISLAND
TERMINALS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO
10 KNOTS.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  82 91 82 90 82  / 20 20 20 10 10
MARATHON  81 92 81 93 82  / 20 20 20 10 10

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/GRIDS.........DAF
AVIATION/NOWCASTS...........11
DATA COLLECTION.............BF/MP

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 241321
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
920 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB)...LATEST IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF 900 AM
DEPICTS THE CENTER OF A REGIONAL SCALE MIDDLE AND UPPER
RIDGE...(500-200 MB) THAT IS CENTERED NEAR 29 NORTH 76 WEST. THE
CENTER OF A TUTT (TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH) LOW...AT ABOUT
250 MB...IS LOCATED IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. AS A RESULT...DEEP MID
AND UPPER SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS IN PLACE OVER THE KEYS FROM 700 MB
ON UP. AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER LEVELS...(SURFACE TO 700
MB)...A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED AT THE LONGITUDE OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA KEYS...THERE IS A 1018-1020 MB
SURFACE RIDGE POSITIONED FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA. AS A RESULT...THE 12Z SOUNDING ILLUSTRATED A
GENTLE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO 700 MB...WITH PWAT
(PRECIPITABLE WATER) AT ABOUT 1.63 INCHES. THE 24 HOUR TREND IS
WARNING IN THE 700-550 MB LAYER...WITH COOLING IN THE 550-350 MB
LAYERS...AND -7 DEGREES AT 500 MB.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 900 AM...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SKIES DETAILS
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE KEYS ISLAND CHAIN AND SURROUNDING
WATERS. KEY WEST RADAR DETECTS SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
STRAITS...WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE ISLANDS ATTM.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLANDS ARE ALREADY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S. C-MAN STATIONS ALONG
THE FLORIDA REEF...AND FLORIDA BAY...ARE ALL SOUTHEASTERLY NEAR 10
KNOTS.

.FORECAST...SHORT TERM...FOR THE REST OF TODAY...WEAK SURFACE TO
LOWER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THIS WILL ALLOW GENTLE
WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT DURING THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST AVAILABLE MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO ILLUSTRATE THAT THE THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVEL
WINDS...SURFACE TO 700 MB...WILL CONTINUE TO NOT BE "WELL ALIGNED"
OR IDEAL FOR GOOD MESOSCALE CUMULUS CLOUD LINE FORMATION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HOWEVER...THESE MODEL FORECAST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONCOMITANT WITH LATEST SCANS OF MIMIC (UNIVERSITY OF
WISCONSIN SATELLITE DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER) UPSTREAM...DO
ILLUSTRATE AMPLE MOISTURE REMAINING IN THE COLUMN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE DAY...WITH PWAT REMAINING NEAR 1.75 INCHES. THIS JUSTIFIES
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME CLOUD
STREAKS AND SMALLER BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. THEREFORE...ISOLATED POPS
WILL BE RETAINED IN THE GRIDS...HENCE NO CHANGES ARE FORESEEN ON
THIS UPDATE CYCLE.

&&

.MARINE...GENTLE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
STRAITS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT MOSTLY
EAST ACROSS HAWK CHANNEL AND THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS...AS WELL AS
ACROSS FLORIDA BAY THE SHALLOWER NEARSHORE GULF WATERS INSIDE THE
FIVE FATHOM LINE NORTH OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND
TERMINALS...BUT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/GRIDS.........DAF
AVIATION/NOWCASTS...........11
DATA COLLECTION.............BF/MP

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 241321
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
920 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB)...LATEST IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF 900 AM
DEPICTS THE CENTER OF A REGIONAL SCALE MIDDLE AND UPPER
RIDGE...(500-200 MB) THAT IS CENTERED NEAR 29 NORTH 76 WEST. THE
CENTER OF A TUTT (TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH) LOW...AT ABOUT
250 MB...IS LOCATED IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. AS A RESULT...DEEP MID
AND UPPER SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS IN PLACE OVER THE KEYS FROM 700 MB
ON UP. AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER LEVELS...(SURFACE TO 700
MB)...A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED AT THE LONGITUDE OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA KEYS...THERE IS A 1018-1020 MB
SURFACE RIDGE POSITIONED FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA. AS A RESULT...THE 12Z SOUNDING ILLUSTRATED A
GENTLE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO 700 MB...WITH PWAT
(PRECIPITABLE WATER) AT ABOUT 1.63 INCHES. THE 24 HOUR TREND IS
WARNING IN THE 700-550 MB LAYER...WITH COOLING IN THE 550-350 MB
LAYERS...AND -7 DEGREES AT 500 MB.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 900 AM...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SKIES DETAILS
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE KEYS ISLAND CHAIN AND SURROUNDING
WATERS. KEY WEST RADAR DETECTS SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
STRAITS...WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE ISLANDS ATTM.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLANDS ARE ALREADY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S. C-MAN STATIONS ALONG
THE FLORIDA REEF...AND FLORIDA BAY...ARE ALL SOUTHEASTERLY NEAR 10
KNOTS.

.FORECAST...SHORT TERM...FOR THE REST OF TODAY...WEAK SURFACE TO
LOWER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THIS WILL ALLOW GENTLE
WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT DURING THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST AVAILABLE MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO ILLUSTRATE THAT THE THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVEL
WINDS...SURFACE TO 700 MB...WILL CONTINUE TO NOT BE "WELL ALIGNED"
OR IDEAL FOR GOOD MESOSCALE CUMULUS CLOUD LINE FORMATION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HOWEVER...THESE MODEL FORECAST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONCOMITANT WITH LATEST SCANS OF MIMIC (UNIVERSITY OF
WISCONSIN SATELLITE DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER) UPSTREAM...DO
ILLUSTRATE AMPLE MOISTURE REMAINING IN THE COLUMN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE DAY...WITH PWAT REMAINING NEAR 1.75 INCHES. THIS JUSTIFIES
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME CLOUD
STREAKS AND SMALLER BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. THEREFORE...ISOLATED POPS
WILL BE RETAINED IN THE GRIDS...HENCE NO CHANGES ARE FORESEEN ON
THIS UPDATE CYCLE.

&&

.MARINE...GENTLE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
STRAITS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT MOSTLY
EAST ACROSS HAWK CHANNEL AND THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS...AS WELL AS
ACROSS FLORIDA BAY THE SHALLOWER NEARSHORE GULF WATERS INSIDE THE
FIVE FATHOM LINE NORTH OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND
TERMINALS...BUT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/GRIDS.........DAF
AVIATION/NOWCASTS...........11
DATA COLLECTION.............BF/MP

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 241225
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
825 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS...BUT THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE FOR BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST
SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

&&

$$

AVIATION...11

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 240832
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
432 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS WHICH ARE
CURRENTLY PASSING TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
SURROUNDING WATERS. EVENING SOUNDING CAME IN WITH ONLY MINOR
VARIATIONS FROM 24 HOURS AGO. LIGHT SOUTH-EASTERLIES GAVE WAY TO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS UP TO 500 MB IN A DEEP LAYER DIFFUSE PRESSURE
PATTERN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. ONLY FEATURE OF NOTE ON THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS SPINNING NORTHEAST OF CUBA...BUT
IS NOT COUPLING IN ANY WAY WITH THE LOW LEVELS TO INDUCE SIGNIFICANT
SHOWER OR STORM ACTIVITY. ONLY EFFECT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FROM
THIS FEATURE IS AN INCREASED FORWARD MOTION OF DEEP LAYER CONVECTION
IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. WINDS HAVE SURGED AT AREA CMAN STATIONS DUE TO
MESOSCALE EFFECTS TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST NEAR THE
SURFACE...BUT EXPECT THOSE WINDS TO WANE SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK TO
ANOTHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND PATTERN IN THE AROUND ISLAND
LOCATIONS.

.FORECAST...
VERY FEW CHANGES WERE NECESSARY THIS FORECAST CYCLE. EXPECT THAT A
DEEP LAYER ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE
THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. WHILE A FEW HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS WANT TO INDICATE A MINOR PASSING SHORT WAVE IN THE
AREA ON FRIDAY...EXPECT THAT THE PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL PROHIBIT SHOWERS FROM FORMING OVER ANY UPSTREAM LOCATION DESPITE
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BEING INDICATED FOR THAT TIME. A MORE PROMINENT
TROPICAL WAVE...THE REMNANTS OF WHAT WAS TD NUMBER 2...IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE SERVICE AREA ON MONDAY. THE DEEPLY SHEARED NATURE OF THIS
TROPICAL WAVE GIVES VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE
FEATURE BY MONDAY...BUT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN THE AREA IS CERTAINLY
SUPPORTIVE OF CHANCE POPS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
CLIMATOLOGICAL TRADE WINDS WILL WAIVER IN INTENSITY EACH DAY AND
NIGHT...WITH EXPECTED NIGHTLY SURGES EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
THEREAFTER...THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL INTENSIFY IN A SMALL MEASURE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WHILE A PERIOD OR TWO OF NEAR 15 KNOT WINDS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS WEEKEND...EXPECT THAT INTENSITY OF WINDS IN
THE NEARSHORE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SHORT LIVED IN NATURE. SHOWER AND
TSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS UPSTREAM FROM THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS REMAIN
VERY SMALL AND WIDELY SPACED. THAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE CASE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE THREAT OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT EITHER LOCATION. EXPECT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH AT LEAST 3000 FEET AT BOTH
LOCATIONS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1970...2.64 INCHES OF RAIN
WAS RECORDED IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RAINFALL RECORD FOR
JULY 24 IN KEY WEST. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........MSB
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....04

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 240832
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
432 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS WHICH ARE
CURRENTLY PASSING TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
SURROUNDING WATERS. EVENING SOUNDING CAME IN WITH ONLY MINOR
VARIATIONS FROM 24 HOURS AGO. LIGHT SOUTH-EASTERLIES GAVE WAY TO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS UP TO 500 MB IN A DEEP LAYER DIFFUSE PRESSURE
PATTERN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. ONLY FEATURE OF NOTE ON THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS SPINNING NORTHEAST OF CUBA...BUT
IS NOT COUPLING IN ANY WAY WITH THE LOW LEVELS TO INDUCE SIGNIFICANT
SHOWER OR STORM ACTIVITY. ONLY EFFECT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FROM
THIS FEATURE IS AN INCREASED FORWARD MOTION OF DEEP LAYER CONVECTION
IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. WINDS HAVE SURGED AT AREA CMAN STATIONS DUE TO
MESOSCALE EFFECTS TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST NEAR THE
SURFACE...BUT EXPECT THOSE WINDS TO WANE SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK TO
ANOTHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND PATTERN IN THE AROUND ISLAND
LOCATIONS.

.FORECAST...
VERY FEW CHANGES WERE NECESSARY THIS FORECAST CYCLE. EXPECT THAT A
DEEP LAYER ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE
THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. WHILE A FEW HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS WANT TO INDICATE A MINOR PASSING SHORT WAVE IN THE
AREA ON FRIDAY...EXPECT THAT THE PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL PROHIBIT SHOWERS FROM FORMING OVER ANY UPSTREAM LOCATION DESPITE
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BEING INDICATED FOR THAT TIME. A MORE PROMINENT
TROPICAL WAVE...THE REMNANTS OF WHAT WAS TD NUMBER 2...IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE SERVICE AREA ON MONDAY. THE DEEPLY SHEARED NATURE OF THIS
TROPICAL WAVE GIVES VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE
FEATURE BY MONDAY...BUT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN THE AREA IS CERTAINLY
SUPPORTIVE OF CHANCE POPS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
CLIMATOLOGICAL TRADE WINDS WILL WAIVER IN INTENSITY EACH DAY AND
NIGHT...WITH EXPECTED NIGHTLY SURGES EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
THEREAFTER...THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL INTENSIFY IN A SMALL MEASURE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WHILE A PERIOD OR TWO OF NEAR 15 KNOT WINDS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS WEEKEND...EXPECT THAT INTENSITY OF WINDS IN
THE NEARSHORE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SHORT LIVED IN NATURE. SHOWER AND
TSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS UPSTREAM FROM THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS REMAIN
VERY SMALL AND WIDELY SPACED. THAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE CASE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE THREAT OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT EITHER LOCATION. EXPECT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH AT LEAST 3000 FEET AT BOTH
LOCATIONS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1970...2.64 INCHES OF RAIN
WAS RECORDED IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RAINFALL RECORD FOR
JULY 24 IN KEY WEST. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........MSB
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....04

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 240145
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
945 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER A BRIEF PROLIFERATION OF CELLS ON A WESTERN SEGMENT OF A CLOUD
LINE JUST NORTH OF THE WESTERNMOST LOWER KEYS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS TRANSITIONED TO
ONLY ISOLATED SMALL CELLS MAINLY ON THE FLORIDA STRAITS BEYOND 20 NM
SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER KEYS. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH A LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WIND OF 5 TO 10 MPH. SURFACE WISE...A WESTERN ATLANTIC
RIDGE IS POKING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA...RESULTING IN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF AROUND 5 KNOTS ON OUR MARINE DISTRICT.
OTHERWISE...OUR EVENING SOUNDING REVEALS A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE
AND VERY MOIST (PWAT 1.87 INCHES) AIRMASS WITH LIGHT AND CHAOTIC
WINDS REACHING UP TO 600 MB...BEFORE BECOMING EAST SOUTHEAST AND
INCREASING APPRECIABLY ABOVE.

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
A DEEP TROPOSPHERIC (SURFACE-500 MB) WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO MUSCLE WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND WELL
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AS AN UPPER LOW (200-300 MB) MIGRATES WEST
NORTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO. WITH THE INTENSIFYING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...MUCH DRIER AIR
WILL FILTER IN ALONG WITH A LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHEAST FLOW.
HENCE...ONLY ISOLATED 20 PERCENT POPS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
OUR EVENING RAWINDSONDE DEPICTS VARIABLE WINDS OF 2 AND 3 KNOTS AT 1
AND 2 THOUSAND FEET RESPECTIVELY...WHILE THE KBYX VWP SHOWS EAST TO
SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 KNOTS AT SIMILAR HEIGHTS. WITH THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC RIDGE NOSING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA...MOSTLY SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS EXCEPT 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON THE
FLORIDA STRAITS.

&&

.AVIATION...
OVERNIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON TERMINALS. EXPECT FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS WITH BASES
FL020-025. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE EVENING THROUGH
EARLY MORNING HOURS INTO THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINALS...BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE VERY TRANSIENT WITH WIDE SEPARATION. LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS 5 KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
SOUTHEAST AROUND 8 KNOTS AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY.
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...APA
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....................JR
DATA ACQUISITION.....................EV
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 240145
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
945 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER A BRIEF PROLIFERATION OF CELLS ON A WESTERN SEGMENT OF A CLOUD
LINE JUST NORTH OF THE WESTERNMOST LOWER KEYS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS TRANSITIONED TO
ONLY ISOLATED SMALL CELLS MAINLY ON THE FLORIDA STRAITS BEYOND 20 NM
SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER KEYS. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH A LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WIND OF 5 TO 10 MPH. SURFACE WISE...A WESTERN ATLANTIC
RIDGE IS POKING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA...RESULTING IN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF AROUND 5 KNOTS ON OUR MARINE DISTRICT.
OTHERWISE...OUR EVENING SOUNDING REVEALS A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE
AND VERY MOIST (PWAT 1.87 INCHES) AIRMASS WITH LIGHT AND CHAOTIC
WINDS REACHING UP TO 600 MB...BEFORE BECOMING EAST SOUTHEAST AND
INCREASING APPRECIABLY ABOVE.

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
A DEEP TROPOSPHERIC (SURFACE-500 MB) WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO MUSCLE WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND WELL
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AS AN UPPER LOW (200-300 MB) MIGRATES WEST
NORTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO. WITH THE INTENSIFYING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...MUCH DRIER AIR
WILL FILTER IN ALONG WITH A LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHEAST FLOW.
HENCE...ONLY ISOLATED 20 PERCENT POPS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
OUR EVENING RAWINDSONDE DEPICTS VARIABLE WINDS OF 2 AND 3 KNOTS AT 1
AND 2 THOUSAND FEET RESPECTIVELY...WHILE THE KBYX VWP SHOWS EAST TO
SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 KNOTS AT SIMILAR HEIGHTS. WITH THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC RIDGE NOSING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA...MOSTLY SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS EXCEPT 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON THE
FLORIDA STRAITS.

&&

.AVIATION...
OVERNIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON TERMINALS. EXPECT FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS WITH BASES
FL020-025. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE EVENING THROUGH
EARLY MORNING HOURS INTO THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINALS...BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE VERY TRANSIENT WITH WIDE SEPARATION. LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS 5 KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
SOUTHEAST AROUND 8 KNOTS AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY.
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...APA
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....................JR
DATA ACQUISITION.....................EV
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 231823 CCA
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
225 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

CORRECTED ISSUANCE TIME

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES
OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE VARIABLY CLOUDY. WINDS OVER LAND ARE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH. C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE
SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S IN
RAIN COOLED AREAS TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ELSEWHERE.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. LACK OF AN APPARENT CONVECTIVE
TRIGGER SHOULD LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO COULD REACH THE FLORIDA KEYS LATE THIS
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE BUMPED UP
FOR THE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THESE HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BACKWARD IN TIME TO SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY IN FUTURE FORECAST ISSUANCES.

&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ON ALL KEYS COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES EXPECTED
TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST
INTERNATIONAL AND MARATHON AIRPORT ISLAND TERMINALS. WINDS WILL
AVERAGE FROM 120-140 DEGREES AT OR ABOUT 5 TO 8 KNOTS. EXPECT
SCATTERED CUMULUS WITH BASES AT OR ABOUT 2000-2500 FEET.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1957...THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS 95 DEGREES. THIS
SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON
JULY 23RD...A RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 57 YEARS LATER. TEMPERATURE
RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  82 90 82 90 / 20 20 20 20
MARATHON  82 92 81 91 / 20 20 20 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....................FUTTERMAN
DATA ACQUISITION.....................VICKERY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 231823 CCA
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
225 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

CORRECTED ISSUANCE TIME

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES
OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE VARIABLY CLOUDY. WINDS OVER LAND ARE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH. C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE
SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S IN
RAIN COOLED AREAS TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ELSEWHERE.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. LACK OF AN APPARENT CONVECTIVE
TRIGGER SHOULD LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO COULD REACH THE FLORIDA KEYS LATE THIS
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE BUMPED UP
FOR THE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THESE HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BACKWARD IN TIME TO SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY IN FUTURE FORECAST ISSUANCES.

&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ON ALL KEYS COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES EXPECTED
TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST
INTERNATIONAL AND MARATHON AIRPORT ISLAND TERMINALS. WINDS WILL
AVERAGE FROM 120-140 DEGREES AT OR ABOUT 5 TO 8 KNOTS. EXPECT
SCATTERED CUMULUS WITH BASES AT OR ABOUT 2000-2500 FEET.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1957...THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS 95 DEGREES. THIS
SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON
JULY 23RD...A RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 57 YEARS LATER. TEMPERATURE
RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  82 90 82 90 / 20 20 20 20
MARATHON  82 92 81 91 / 20 20 20 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....................FUTTERMAN
DATA ACQUISITION.....................VICKERY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 231822
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
325 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES
OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE VARIABLY CLOUDY. WINDS OVER LAND ARE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH. C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE
SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S IN
RAIN COOLED AREAS TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ELSEWHERE.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. LACK OF AN APPARENT CONVECTIVE
TRIGGER SHOULD LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO COULD REACH THE FLORIDA KEYS LATE THIS
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE BUMPED UP
FOR THE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THESE HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BACKWARD IN TIME TO SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY IN FUTURE FORECAST ISSUANCES.

&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ON ALL KEYS COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES EXPECTED
TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST
INTERNATIONAL AND MARATHON AIRPORT ISLAND TERMINALS. WINDS WILL
AVERAGE FROM 120-140 DEGREES AT OR ABOUT 5 TO 8 KNOTS. EXPECT
SCATTERED CUMULUS WITH BASES AT OR ABOUT 2000-2500 FEET.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1957...THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS 95 DEGREES. THIS
SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON
JULY 23RD...A RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 57 YEARS LATER. TEMPERATURE
RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  82 90 82 90 / 20 20 20 20
MARATHON  82 92 81 91 / 20 20 20 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....................FUTTERMAN
DATA ACQUISITION.....................VICKERY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 231822
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
325 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES
OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE VARIABLY CLOUDY. WINDS OVER LAND ARE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH. C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE
SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S IN
RAIN COOLED AREAS TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ELSEWHERE.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. LACK OF AN APPARENT CONVECTIVE
TRIGGER SHOULD LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO COULD REACH THE FLORIDA KEYS LATE THIS
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE BUMPED UP
FOR THE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THESE HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BACKWARD IN TIME TO SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY IN FUTURE FORECAST ISSUANCES.

&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ON ALL KEYS COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES EXPECTED
TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST
INTERNATIONAL AND MARATHON AIRPORT ISLAND TERMINALS. WINDS WILL
AVERAGE FROM 120-140 DEGREES AT OR ABOUT 5 TO 8 KNOTS. EXPECT
SCATTERED CUMULUS WITH BASES AT OR ABOUT 2000-2500 FEET.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1957...THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS 95 DEGREES. THIS
SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON
JULY 23RD...A RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 57 YEARS LATER. TEMPERATURE
RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  82 90 82 90 / 20 20 20 20
MARATHON  82 92 81 91 / 20 20 20 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....................FUTTERMAN
DATA ACQUISITION.....................VICKERY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 231314
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
915 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS WIDELY SEPARATED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA.
SKIES OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE PARTLY CLOUDY. WINDS OVER LAND ARE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH. C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH NEAR 10 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

.SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON)...
IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS
AFTERNOON. IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS TODAY. THE 12Z
KKEY SOUNDING IS VERY UNSTABLE AND TYPICALLY MOIST FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUE JUST ABOVE ONE AND
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONSTANT
THIS AFTERNOON. NEAR NORMAL ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF JULY WILL RESULT IN A FORECAST BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ON ALL KEYS COASTAL
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AND
MARATHON ISLAND TERMINALS. WINDS WILL AVERAGE FROM BETWEEN 110-140
DEGREES AT 6 TO 8 KNOTS. EXPECT JUST SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS
WITH BASES AT 2000-2500 FEET.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1900...2.06 INCHES OF RAIN
FELL IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR MAXIMUM RAINFALL
MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON JULY 23RD...A RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 114
YEARS LATER. RAINFALL RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....................FUTTERMAN
DATA ACQUISITION.....................11

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 231314
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
915 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS WIDELY SEPARATED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA.
SKIES OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE PARTLY CLOUDY. WINDS OVER LAND ARE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH. C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH NEAR 10 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

.SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON)...
IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS
AFTERNOON. IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS TODAY. THE 12Z
KKEY SOUNDING IS VERY UNSTABLE AND TYPICALLY MOIST FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUE JUST ABOVE ONE AND
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONSTANT
THIS AFTERNOON. NEAR NORMAL ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF JULY WILL RESULT IN A FORECAST BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ON ALL KEYS COASTAL
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AND
MARATHON ISLAND TERMINALS. WINDS WILL AVERAGE FROM BETWEEN 110-140
DEGREES AT 6 TO 8 KNOTS. EXPECT JUST SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS
WITH BASES AT 2000-2500 FEET.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1900...2.06 INCHES OF RAIN
FELL IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR MAXIMUM RAINFALL
MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON JULY 23RD...A RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 114
YEARS LATER. RAINFALL RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....................FUTTERMAN
DATA ACQUISITION.....................11

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 231158
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
758 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST
INTERNATIONAL AND MARATHON ISLAND TERMINALS. WINDS WILL AVERAGE FROM
BETWEEN 110-140 DEGREES AT 6 TO 8 KNOTS. EXPECT JUST SOME SCATTERED
CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES AT FL020-025


&&

$$

AVIATION...FUTTERMAN

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 231158
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
758 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST
INTERNATIONAL AND MARATHON ISLAND TERMINALS. WINDS WILL AVERAGE FROM
BETWEEN 110-140 DEGREES AT 6 TO 8 KNOTS. EXPECT JUST SOME SCATTERED
CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES AT FL020-025


&&

$$

AVIATION...FUTTERMAN

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 230740
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
340 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE DRIFTING
WEST/NORTHWESTWARD...MAINLY ACROSS OUR OPEN GULF WATERS AT THIS HOUR.
LARGER SHOWERS WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ARE IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM
FROM OUR ATLANTIC WATERS. EARLY MORNING IR SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE BULK OF OUR SERVICE AREA. WINDS ARE
LIGHT TO GENTLE FROM THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AND TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
LOWER 80S ALONG THE KEYS ISLAND CHAIN.

A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH WEST
OF THE IMMEDIATE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ALIGNED ACROSS SOUTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA FOR THE DURATION OF THIS
FORECAST. MID TO UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL REMAIN SHUNTED WELL TO THE
WEST AND TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION DURING THAT TIME. IN THE SHORT
TERM...MIMIC IMAGERY OF PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWS AN AXIS OF DEEPER
MOISTURE APPROACHING THE THE KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS...AND WILL
PERSIST AT LEAST UNTIL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ON A DEEP EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND. THEREAFTER...DRIER AIR PULLS IN ALOFT...WHICH
SHOULD DIP OUR PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FOR THE KEYS
FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS. MAINTAINED A LOW CHANCE POP...30
PERCENT...FOR TODAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE...20 PERCENT...HAS BEEN
INSERTED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A
DIFFERENCE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE STARTING ON SATURDAY BETWEEN THE GFS
AND ECMWF...THE LATTER BEING SOMEWHAT DRIER AT LEAST THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. AT THIS POINT...WILL KEEP SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NUMBERS BASED CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL NUMBERS. IN GENERAL...NO
CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS ISSUANCE FOR THOSE LATE PERIODS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS SOUTH AND CENTRAL
FLORIDA FOR THE DURATION OF THIS FORECAST. EXPECT GENTLE...TO
PERIODICALLY MODERATE IN THE STRAITS...EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES
THROUGH THIS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
23/06Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD THOUGH A BRIEF SHOWER AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT WITH MVFR IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  90  83  90  82 / 30 20 20 20
MARATHON  92  82  91  81 / 30 20 20 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........04
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....MSB
DATA COLLECTION.......11

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 230740
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
340 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE DRIFTING
WEST/NORTHWESTWARD...MAINLY ACROSS OUR OPEN GULF WATERS AT THIS HOUR.
LARGER SHOWERS WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ARE IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM
FROM OUR ATLANTIC WATERS. EARLY MORNING IR SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE BULK OF OUR SERVICE AREA. WINDS ARE
LIGHT TO GENTLE FROM THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AND TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
LOWER 80S ALONG THE KEYS ISLAND CHAIN.

A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH WEST
OF THE IMMEDIATE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ALIGNED ACROSS SOUTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA FOR THE DURATION OF THIS
FORECAST. MID TO UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL REMAIN SHUNTED WELL TO THE
WEST AND TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION DURING THAT TIME. IN THE SHORT
TERM...MIMIC IMAGERY OF PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWS AN AXIS OF DEEPER
MOISTURE APPROACHING THE THE KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS...AND WILL
PERSIST AT LEAST UNTIL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ON A DEEP EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND. THEREAFTER...DRIER AIR PULLS IN ALOFT...WHICH
SHOULD DIP OUR PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FOR THE KEYS
FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS. MAINTAINED A LOW CHANCE POP...30
PERCENT...FOR TODAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE...20 PERCENT...HAS BEEN
INSERTED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A
DIFFERENCE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE STARTING ON SATURDAY BETWEEN THE GFS
AND ECMWF...THE LATTER BEING SOMEWHAT DRIER AT LEAST THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. AT THIS POINT...WILL KEEP SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NUMBERS BASED CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL NUMBERS. IN GENERAL...NO
CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS ISSUANCE FOR THOSE LATE PERIODS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS SOUTH AND CENTRAL
FLORIDA FOR THE DURATION OF THIS FORECAST. EXPECT GENTLE...TO
PERIODICALLY MODERATE IN THE STRAITS...EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES
THROUGH THIS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
23/06Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD THOUGH A BRIEF SHOWER AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT WITH MVFR IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  90  83  90  82 / 30 20 20 20
MARATHON  92  82  91  81 / 30 20 20 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........04
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....MSB
DATA COLLECTION.......11

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 230220
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1020 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...IF ONE CAN IMAGINE A TILTED OMEGA SYMBOL...THEN THERE
IS A DEEP ANTICYCLONIC GYRE TO THE EAST OF THE ATLANTIC
BIGHT...FLANKED BY A TUTT CELL SOUTH OF CUBA AND A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERED OVER THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI. THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
AREA COASTAL WATERS LIE AT THE BASE OF THE ANTICYCLONE...CORROBORATED
BY SOUTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW FROM 500 MB TO THE TROPOPAUSE. THE
LOWER TROPOSPHERE AND THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS REMAIN POORLY
DEFINED. THE RADAR IS MYSTERIOUSLY ECHO FREE. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA...WHILE GENTLE NORTHEAST
BREEZES PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF WATERS. TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM 80 TO 85 DEGREES.

.FORECAST...LOW LEVEL RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT. AS GENTLE TO LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES
RESUME...WEAK CONVERGENCE WILL BE COUNTERED BY DRIER AIR...INDICATED
BY MIMIC TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THUS...A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BALANCES THE PROS WITH THE CONS.

&&

.MARINE...AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL FLORIDA OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...UNTIL 12Z/23RD...THE BEST CHANCE OF A BOUT OF MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE AFTER 08Z...OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS. EAST WINDS OF AROUND
5 KNOTS WILL TURN SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....APA
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 230220
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1020 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...IF ONE CAN IMAGINE A TILTED OMEGA SYMBOL...THEN THERE
IS A DEEP ANTICYCLONIC GYRE TO THE EAST OF THE ATLANTIC
BIGHT...FLANKED BY A TUTT CELL SOUTH OF CUBA AND A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERED OVER THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI. THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
AREA COASTAL WATERS LIE AT THE BASE OF THE ANTICYCLONE...CORROBORATED
BY SOUTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW FROM 500 MB TO THE TROPOPAUSE. THE
LOWER TROPOSPHERE AND THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS REMAIN POORLY
DEFINED. THE RADAR IS MYSTERIOUSLY ECHO FREE. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA...WHILE GENTLE NORTHEAST
BREEZES PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF WATERS. TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM 80 TO 85 DEGREES.

.FORECAST...LOW LEVEL RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT. AS GENTLE TO LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES
RESUME...WEAK CONVERGENCE WILL BE COUNTERED BY DRIER AIR...INDICATED
BY MIMIC TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THUS...A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BALANCES THE PROS WITH THE CONS.

&&

.MARINE...AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL FLORIDA OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...UNTIL 12Z/23RD...THE BEST CHANCE OF A BOUT OF MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE AFTER 08Z...OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS. EAST WINDS OF AROUND
5 KNOTS WILL TURN SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....APA
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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