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000
FXUS62 KKEY 010117
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
920 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER FLORIDA BAY AND
NEARSHORE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS NORTH OF THE MIDDLE KEYS.
ELSEWHERE...KBYX DETECTS NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE VARIABLY CLOUDY.
WINDS OVER LAND ARE VARIABLE AT 5 TO 10 MPH. C-MAN WINDS...ON
AVERAGE...ARE EAST NEAR 10 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 80S.

.SHORT TERM (OVERNIGHT)...
IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS OVERNIGHT. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT. THE 00Z KKEY SOUNDING IS
EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AND SEASONABLY MOIST...WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER
(PWAT) VALUE JUST UNDER ONE AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH.
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT. BY SUNRISE
SATURDAY...PWAT VALUES WILL BE JUST ABOVE ONE AND ONE HALF OF AN
INCH...WHICH IS NEAR THE 25TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE
ANTICIPATED DECREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL LIMIT POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL INCREASE ON ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES EXPECTED TONIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH NEAR
10 MPH. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE
PROBABILITY ONE MAY IMPACT EITHER AIRPORT IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT
INCLUSION IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1874...THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST WAS 95 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON JULY 31ST...A RECORD
WHICH STILL STANDS 141 YEARS LATER. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST
DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....................DEVANAS
DATA ACQUISITION.....................FLING

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 010117
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
920 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER FLORIDA BAY AND
NEARSHORE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS NORTH OF THE MIDDLE KEYS.
ELSEWHERE...KBYX DETECTS NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE VARIABLY CLOUDY.
WINDS OVER LAND ARE VARIABLE AT 5 TO 10 MPH. C-MAN WINDS...ON
AVERAGE...ARE EAST NEAR 10 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 80S.

.SHORT TERM (OVERNIGHT)...
IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS OVERNIGHT. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT. THE 00Z KKEY SOUNDING IS
EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AND SEASONABLY MOIST...WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER
(PWAT) VALUE JUST UNDER ONE AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH.
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT. BY SUNRISE
SATURDAY...PWAT VALUES WILL BE JUST ABOVE ONE AND ONE HALF OF AN
INCH...WHICH IS NEAR THE 25TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE
ANTICIPATED DECREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL LIMIT POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL INCREASE ON ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES EXPECTED TONIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH NEAR
10 MPH. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE
PROBABILITY ONE MAY IMPACT EITHER AIRPORT IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT
INCLUSION IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1874...THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST WAS 95 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON JULY 31ST...A RECORD
WHICH STILL STANDS 141 YEARS LATER. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST
DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....................DEVANAS
DATA ACQUISITION.....................FLING

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 311843
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
243 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
THERE ARE A FEW LINGERING BOUNDARIES SPAWNING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOWER KEYS. A NEARLY STATIONARY
TROUGH OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...MEANWHILE A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH IS MOVING
WESTWARD NEAR THE BAHAMAS. WITH THESE FEATURES LINGERING NEARBY WE
HAVE AMPLE MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH SATURATED MID LAYER
PRODUCING BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS. FINALLY...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
STRETCHED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE SOUTH
NEAR 10 KNOTS AT THE THE C-MAN STATIONS SOUTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN AND
LONG KEY...WHILE SMITH SHOAL AND THE DRY TORTUGAS INDICATE 5 TO 10
KNOTS. THE ISLAND TERMINALS ARE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

.FORECAST...
THE AXIS OF THE HIGH PRESSURE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A COL REGION ABOVE THE SURFACE THROUGH
THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE TO KEEP THE HIGH CLOUDS
IN PLACE. THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND TUTT TO THE EAST ARE PUMPING
MOISTURE INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LAYERS. THE MORNING SOUNDING WAS
FAIRLY UNSTABLE BUT THERE ARE LIMITS TO THE LOW LEVEL LIFTING. WITH
THE RIDGE LIFTING TO THE NORTH WILL INCREASE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. PERTURBATIONS IN THE PRESSURE FIELD WILL
RESULT IN EPISODIC PEAKS AND LULLS IN THE WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. WE MENTIONED HIGH RAIN CHANCES FOR THE EXTENDED PERIODS THIS
MORNING WITH THE CAVEAT THAT THERE WAS SOME QUESTION AS TO THE
VALIDITY IN THE GUIDANCE...AND THE AFTERNOON RUN SEEMS TO HAVE PULLED
BACK FROM THE NUMBERS THIS MORNING AS EXPECTED AND WE WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE KEYS AREA WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT. BREEZES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE BECOMING GENTLE TO
MODERATE AND SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...
UNTIL 12Z/1ST...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON TERMINALS. MOSTLY SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL TURN
MAINLY SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO NEAR 15 KNOTS LATE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...1889...THE LOW TEMPERATURE
WAS 71 DEGREES SETTING THE DAILY RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR KEY
WEST ON JULY 31ST. THIS RECORD STANDS 126 YEARS LATER. TEMPERATURE
RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  81  90  81  90 / 10 10 10 10
MARATHON  81  93  81  92 / 10 10 10 10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....APA
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST





000
FXUS62 KKEY 311843
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
243 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
THERE ARE A FEW LINGERING BOUNDARIES SPAWNING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOWER KEYS. A NEARLY STATIONARY
TROUGH OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...MEANWHILE A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH IS MOVING
WESTWARD NEAR THE BAHAMAS. WITH THESE FEATURES LINGERING NEARBY WE
HAVE AMPLE MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH SATURATED MID LAYER
PRODUCING BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS. FINALLY...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
STRETCHED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE SOUTH
NEAR 10 KNOTS AT THE THE C-MAN STATIONS SOUTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN AND
LONG KEY...WHILE SMITH SHOAL AND THE DRY TORTUGAS INDICATE 5 TO 10
KNOTS. THE ISLAND TERMINALS ARE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

.FORECAST...
THE AXIS OF THE HIGH PRESSURE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A COL REGION ABOVE THE SURFACE THROUGH
THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE TO KEEP THE HIGH CLOUDS
IN PLACE. THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND TUTT TO THE EAST ARE PUMPING
MOISTURE INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LAYERS. THE MORNING SOUNDING WAS
FAIRLY UNSTABLE BUT THERE ARE LIMITS TO THE LOW LEVEL LIFTING. WITH
THE RIDGE LIFTING TO THE NORTH WILL INCREASE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. PERTURBATIONS IN THE PRESSURE FIELD WILL
RESULT IN EPISODIC PEAKS AND LULLS IN THE WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. WE MENTIONED HIGH RAIN CHANCES FOR THE EXTENDED PERIODS THIS
MORNING WITH THE CAVEAT THAT THERE WAS SOME QUESTION AS TO THE
VALIDITY IN THE GUIDANCE...AND THE AFTERNOON RUN SEEMS TO HAVE PULLED
BACK FROM THE NUMBERS THIS MORNING AS EXPECTED AND WE WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE KEYS AREA WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT. BREEZES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE BECOMING GENTLE TO
MODERATE AND SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...
UNTIL 12Z/1ST...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON TERMINALS. MOSTLY SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL TURN
MAINLY SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO NEAR 15 KNOTS LATE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...1889...THE LOW TEMPERATURE
WAS 71 DEGREES SETTING THE DAILY RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR KEY
WEST ON JULY 31ST. THIS RECORD STANDS 126 YEARS LATER. TEMPERATURE
RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  81  90  81  90 / 10 10 10 10
MARATHON  81  93  81  92 / 10 10 10 10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....APA
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST




000
FXUS62 KKEY 311326
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
926 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SOME SHOWERS ARE PULSING ALONG A FEW BOUNDARIES DRIFTING NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE EASTERN STRAITS. HIGH CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO PLAGUE THE
KEYS AREA WHILE A NEARLY STATIONARY TROUGH RESIDES ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
NEAR THE KEYS AREA AND SOUTH FLORIDA. A TUTT CELL IS MOVING ACROSS
THE EASTERN BAHAMAS THIS MORNING ADDING TO THE MUDDLED STATE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS. THE MORNING SOUNDING IS SHOWING AMPLE MOISTURE WITH
1.74 INCHES OF PWAT...BUT DRYING ABOVE 850 MB...THEN A SATURATEDLAYER
BETWEEN 550 MB AND 400 MB. WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THIS MORNING
THAN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS NEAR 10
KNOTS AT THE C-MAN STATIONS SOUTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN AND LONG
KEY...5 TO 10 KNOTS NORTH OF THE ISLANDS AND THE DRY TORTUGAS. THE
ISLAND TERMINALS HAVE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS NEAR 5 KNOTS.


.FORECAST...
THE RIDGE AXIS THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE KEYS AREA HAS BEGUN TO LIFT
SLOWLY NORTHWARD...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE NORTH THROUGH
TONIGHT. AS A RESULT WINDS HAVE TURNED SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AND ARE
INCREASING SLIGHTLY. THE COL REGION THROUGH THE LOWER LAYERS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE KEYS WITH ENOUGH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION TO
SUBDUE MUCH OF THE TOWERING CUMULUS. WILL LIKELY INCREASE WINDS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TO GENTLE TO MODERATE...KEEPING THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH COMPONENT.

THE TUTT CELL NEARING THE BAHAMAS WILL SLIDE FURTHER WEST BEFORE
DIPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN CUBA ON TUESDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE
WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH EPISODIC UNDULATIONS MOVING
WESTWARD EFFECTING THE WIND FIELD OVER THE KEYS. GUIDANCE INDICATES
AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT REASONING
IS UNCLEAR WITH A VERY WEAK LIFTING MECHANISM...SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE FORECAST UNTIL A BETTER SOLUTION IS REVEALED.

&&

.MARINE...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE KEYS AREA WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD
TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. BREEZES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE BECOMING GENTLE
TO MODERATE AND SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...
UNTIL 00Z/1ST...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KEY WEST
AND MARATHON TERMINALS. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS
MAY BECOME VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE TURNING SOUTHEAST AGAIN
THIS EVENING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...1889...THE LOW TEMPERATURE
WAS 71 DEGREES SETTING THE DAILY RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR KEY
WEST ON JULY 31ST. THIS RECORD STANDS 126 YEARS LATER. TEMPERATURE
RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....APA
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST





000
FXUS62 KKEY 311326
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
926 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SOME SHOWERS ARE PULSING ALONG A FEW BOUNDARIES DRIFTING NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE EASTERN STRAITS. HIGH CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO PLAGUE THE
KEYS AREA WHILE A NEARLY STATIONARY TROUGH RESIDES ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
NEAR THE KEYS AREA AND SOUTH FLORIDA. A TUTT CELL IS MOVING ACROSS
THE EASTERN BAHAMAS THIS MORNING ADDING TO THE MUDDLED STATE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS. THE MORNING SOUNDING IS SHOWING AMPLE MOISTURE WITH
1.74 INCHES OF PWAT...BUT DRYING ABOVE 850 MB...THEN A SATURATEDLAYER
BETWEEN 550 MB AND 400 MB. WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THIS MORNING
THAN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS NEAR 10
KNOTS AT THE C-MAN STATIONS SOUTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN AND LONG
KEY...5 TO 10 KNOTS NORTH OF THE ISLANDS AND THE DRY TORTUGAS. THE
ISLAND TERMINALS HAVE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS NEAR 5 KNOTS.


.FORECAST...
THE RIDGE AXIS THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE KEYS AREA HAS BEGUN TO LIFT
SLOWLY NORTHWARD...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE NORTH THROUGH
TONIGHT. AS A RESULT WINDS HAVE TURNED SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AND ARE
INCREASING SLIGHTLY. THE COL REGION THROUGH THE LOWER LAYERS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE KEYS WITH ENOUGH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION TO
SUBDUE MUCH OF THE TOWERING CUMULUS. WILL LIKELY INCREASE WINDS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TO GENTLE TO MODERATE...KEEPING THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH COMPONENT.

THE TUTT CELL NEARING THE BAHAMAS WILL SLIDE FURTHER WEST BEFORE
DIPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN CUBA ON TUESDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE
WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH EPISODIC UNDULATIONS MOVING
WESTWARD EFFECTING THE WIND FIELD OVER THE KEYS. GUIDANCE INDICATES
AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT REASONING
IS UNCLEAR WITH A VERY WEAK LIFTING MECHANISM...SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE FORECAST UNTIL A BETTER SOLUTION IS REVEALED.

&&

.MARINE...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE KEYS AREA WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD
TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. BREEZES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE BECOMING GENTLE
TO MODERATE AND SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...
UNTIL 00Z/1ST...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KEY WEST
AND MARATHON TERMINALS. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS
MAY BECOME VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE TURNING SOUTHEAST AGAIN
THIS EVENING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...1889...THE LOW TEMPERATURE
WAS 71 DEGREES SETTING THE DAILY RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR KEY
WEST ON JULY 31ST. THIS RECORD STANDS 126 YEARS LATER. TEMPERATURE
RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....APA
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST




000
FXUS62 KKEY 311326
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
926 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SOME SHOWERS ARE PULSING ALONG A FEW BOUNDARIES DRIFTING NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE EASTERN STRAITS. HIGH CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO PLAGUE THE
KEYS AREA WHILE A NEARLY STATIONARY TROUGH RESIDES ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
NEAR THE KEYS AREA AND SOUTH FLORIDA. A TUTT CELL IS MOVING ACROSS
THE EASTERN BAHAMAS THIS MORNING ADDING TO THE MUDDLED STATE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS. THE MORNING SOUNDING IS SHOWING AMPLE MOISTURE WITH
1.74 INCHES OF PWAT...BUT DRYING ABOVE 850 MB...THEN A SATURATEDLAYER
BETWEEN 550 MB AND 400 MB. WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THIS MORNING
THAN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS NEAR 10
KNOTS AT THE C-MAN STATIONS SOUTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN AND LONG
KEY...5 TO 10 KNOTS NORTH OF THE ISLANDS AND THE DRY TORTUGAS. THE
ISLAND TERMINALS HAVE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS NEAR 5 KNOTS.


.FORECAST...
THE RIDGE AXIS THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE KEYS AREA HAS BEGUN TO LIFT
SLOWLY NORTHWARD...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE NORTH THROUGH
TONIGHT. AS A RESULT WINDS HAVE TURNED SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AND ARE
INCREASING SLIGHTLY. THE COL REGION THROUGH THE LOWER LAYERS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE KEYS WITH ENOUGH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION TO
SUBDUE MUCH OF THE TOWERING CUMULUS. WILL LIKELY INCREASE WINDS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TO GENTLE TO MODERATE...KEEPING THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH COMPONENT.

THE TUTT CELL NEARING THE BAHAMAS WILL SLIDE FURTHER WEST BEFORE
DIPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN CUBA ON TUESDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE
WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH EPISODIC UNDULATIONS MOVING
WESTWARD EFFECTING THE WIND FIELD OVER THE KEYS. GUIDANCE INDICATES
AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT REASONING
IS UNCLEAR WITH A VERY WEAK LIFTING MECHANISM...SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE FORECAST UNTIL A BETTER SOLUTION IS REVEALED.

&&

.MARINE...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE KEYS AREA WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD
TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. BREEZES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE BECOMING GENTLE
TO MODERATE AND SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...
UNTIL 00Z/1ST...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KEY WEST
AND MARATHON TERMINALS. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS
MAY BECOME VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE TURNING SOUTHEAST AGAIN
THIS EVENING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...1889...THE LOW TEMPERATURE
WAS 71 DEGREES SETTING THE DAILY RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR KEY
WEST ON JULY 31ST. THIS RECORD STANDS 126 YEARS LATER. TEMPERATURE
RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....APA
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST




000
FXUS62 KKEY 311326
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
926 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SOME SHOWERS ARE PULSING ALONG A FEW BOUNDARIES DRIFTING NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE EASTERN STRAITS. HIGH CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO PLAGUE THE
KEYS AREA WHILE A NEARLY STATIONARY TROUGH RESIDES ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
NEAR THE KEYS AREA AND SOUTH FLORIDA. A TUTT CELL IS MOVING ACROSS
THE EASTERN BAHAMAS THIS MORNING ADDING TO THE MUDDLED STATE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS. THE MORNING SOUNDING IS SHOWING AMPLE MOISTURE WITH
1.74 INCHES OF PWAT...BUT DRYING ABOVE 850 MB...THEN A SATURATEDLAYER
BETWEEN 550 MB AND 400 MB. WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THIS MORNING
THAN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS NEAR 10
KNOTS AT THE C-MAN STATIONS SOUTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN AND LONG
KEY...5 TO 10 KNOTS NORTH OF THE ISLANDS AND THE DRY TORTUGAS. THE
ISLAND TERMINALS HAVE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS NEAR 5 KNOTS.


.FORECAST...
THE RIDGE AXIS THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE KEYS AREA HAS BEGUN TO LIFT
SLOWLY NORTHWARD...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE NORTH THROUGH
TONIGHT. AS A RESULT WINDS HAVE TURNED SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AND ARE
INCREASING SLIGHTLY. THE COL REGION THROUGH THE LOWER LAYERS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE KEYS WITH ENOUGH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION TO
SUBDUE MUCH OF THE TOWERING CUMULUS. WILL LIKELY INCREASE WINDS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TO GENTLE TO MODERATE...KEEPING THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH COMPONENT.

THE TUTT CELL NEARING THE BAHAMAS WILL SLIDE FURTHER WEST BEFORE
DIPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN CUBA ON TUESDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE
WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH EPISODIC UNDULATIONS MOVING
WESTWARD EFFECTING THE WIND FIELD OVER THE KEYS. GUIDANCE INDICATES
AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT REASONING
IS UNCLEAR WITH A VERY WEAK LIFTING MECHANISM...SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE FORECAST UNTIL A BETTER SOLUTION IS REVEALED.

&&

.MARINE...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE KEYS AREA WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD
TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. BREEZES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE BECOMING GENTLE
TO MODERATE AND SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...
UNTIL 00Z/1ST...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KEY WEST
AND MARATHON TERMINALS. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS
MAY BECOME VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE TURNING SOUTHEAST AGAIN
THIS EVENING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...1889...THE LOW TEMPERATURE
WAS 71 DEGREES SETTING THE DAILY RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR KEY
WEST ON JULY 31ST. THIS RECORD STANDS 126 YEARS LATER. TEMPERATURE
RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....APA
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 310902
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
502 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE CENTER OF A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC GYRE
REMAINS ACROSS TEXAS. A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) IS
MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST INTO THE BAHAMAS. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES...A NEARLY PERMANENT SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHES FROM THE
NORTHERN GULF TO THE CAROLINA COASTS. LOCALLY...THE ZONALLY-DEPRESSED
WESTERN EXTENT OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND AREA COASTAL WATERS. WIND ARE SOUTHERLY AT THE AVAILABLE
OBSERVING STATIONS AND AVERAGE 5 TO 10 KNOTS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
HAVE NOT FALLEN APPRECIABLY...MID 80S IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE KBYX
RADAR HAS BEEN ECHO FREE...ALTHOUGH THERE IS EVIDENCE OF NORTHWARD
DRIFTING BOUNDARIES. THE ANOMALOUSLY CLOUDY SKIES HAVE CLEARED
RECENTLY...BUT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS ADDITIONAL MID-
UPPER LEVEL BANKS UPSTREAM OF THE KEYS.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE AVAILABLE OPINIONS INDICATE
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL LIFT NORTH TODAY AND TONIGHT...OPENING
THE KEYS UP TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES. THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE
AXIS (850-600MB) WILL NOT BE AS EXUBERANT TO LIFT NORTH AND WILL
LIKELY REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. THEREFORE...EXPECT WEAK
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...LAYERS OF DRY AIR...AND GENTLE TO MODERATE
SURFACE BREEZES. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT (10%) THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S AND AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...BUT MAY BEGIN TO FRACTURE BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM.
THEREFORE...VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PATTERN FROM THE SHORT THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER...THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TUTT WILL SLIDE
EAST FROM THE BAHAMAS...INCREASING MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. ADDITIONALLY...THE MULTI-DAY MOS CONSENSUS INDICATES
INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
MECHANISM FOR THESE PROBABILITIES REMAINS UNCERTAIN...THEREFORE...NO
CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE FLORIDA
KEYS COASTAL WATERS TODAY...THEN SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY
BREEZES TO PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS
TODAY. WINDS WILL START OUT LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH...STRENGTHENING A
FEW KNOTS AND SHIFTING SOUTHEASTERLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  90  83  89  83 / 10 10 10 10
MARATHON  93  83  91  83 / 10 10 10 10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....11
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 310902
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
502 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE CENTER OF A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC GYRE
REMAINS ACROSS TEXAS. A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) IS
MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST INTO THE BAHAMAS. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES...A NEARLY PERMANENT SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHES FROM THE
NORTHERN GULF TO THE CAROLINA COASTS. LOCALLY...THE ZONALLY-DEPRESSED
WESTERN EXTENT OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND AREA COASTAL WATERS. WIND ARE SOUTHERLY AT THE AVAILABLE
OBSERVING STATIONS AND AVERAGE 5 TO 10 KNOTS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
HAVE NOT FALLEN APPRECIABLY...MID 80S IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE KBYX
RADAR HAS BEEN ECHO FREE...ALTHOUGH THERE IS EVIDENCE OF NORTHWARD
DRIFTING BOUNDARIES. THE ANOMALOUSLY CLOUDY SKIES HAVE CLEARED
RECENTLY...BUT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS ADDITIONAL MID-
UPPER LEVEL BANKS UPSTREAM OF THE KEYS.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE AVAILABLE OPINIONS INDICATE
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL LIFT NORTH TODAY AND TONIGHT...OPENING
THE KEYS UP TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES. THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE
AXIS (850-600MB) WILL NOT BE AS EXUBERANT TO LIFT NORTH AND WILL
LIKELY REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. THEREFORE...EXPECT WEAK
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...LAYERS OF DRY AIR...AND GENTLE TO MODERATE
SURFACE BREEZES. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT (10%) THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S AND AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...BUT MAY BEGIN TO FRACTURE BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM.
THEREFORE...VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PATTERN FROM THE SHORT THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER...THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TUTT WILL SLIDE
EAST FROM THE BAHAMAS...INCREASING MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. ADDITIONALLY...THE MULTI-DAY MOS CONSENSUS INDICATES
INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
MECHANISM FOR THESE PROBABILITIES REMAINS UNCERTAIN...THEREFORE...NO
CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE FLORIDA
KEYS COASTAL WATERS TODAY...THEN SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY
BREEZES TO PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS
TODAY. WINDS WILL START OUT LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH...STRENGTHENING A
FEW KNOTS AND SHIFTING SOUTHEASTERLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  90  83  89  83 / 10 10 10 10
MARATHON  93  83  91  83 / 10 10 10 10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....11
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 310119
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
920 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES
OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE VARIABLY CLOUDY. WINDS OVER LAND ARE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST NEAR 5 MPH. C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE WEST
NEAR 5 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

.SHORT TERM (OVERNIGHT)...
IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS OVERNIGHT. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
LOCATED JUST NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT. THE 00Z KKEY SOUNDING
IS VERY UNSTABLE...BUT QUITE DRY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH A
PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUE JUST ABOVE ONE AND ONE HALF OF AN
INCH. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT. BY SUNRISE
FRIDAY...PWAT VALUES WILL BE JUST ABOVE ONE AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH...WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THE END OF JULY. DESPITE THIS
ANTICIPATED INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE...LACK OF AN APPARENT
CONVECTIVE TRIGGER WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WEST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ON ALL KEYS COASTAL
WATERS OVERNIGHT. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES EXPECTED
TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.AVIATION...
OVERNIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON TERMINALS. SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 5 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY BACK
TO MORE OF A DUE SOUTH DIRECTION AFTER 12Z. FEW-SCT CLOUDS WILL BE
FOUND AT FL025-030 AND BKN-OVC MID TO HIGH CLOUDS AT FL150-200.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1886...2.65 INCHES
OF RAIN FELL IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR MAXIMUM
RAINFALL MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON JULY 30TH...A RECORD WHICH STILL
STANDS 129 YEARS LATER. RAINFALL RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO
1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION.............................FUTTERMAN
DATA ACQUISITION.....................FLING

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 310119
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
920 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES
OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE VARIABLY CLOUDY. WINDS OVER LAND ARE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST NEAR 5 MPH. C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE WEST
NEAR 5 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

.SHORT TERM (OVERNIGHT)...
IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS OVERNIGHT. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
LOCATED JUST NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT. THE 00Z KKEY SOUNDING
IS VERY UNSTABLE...BUT QUITE DRY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH A
PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUE JUST ABOVE ONE AND ONE HALF OF AN
INCH. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT. BY SUNRISE
FRIDAY...PWAT VALUES WILL BE JUST ABOVE ONE AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH...WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THE END OF JULY. DESPITE THIS
ANTICIPATED INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE...LACK OF AN APPARENT
CONVECTIVE TRIGGER WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WEST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ON ALL KEYS COASTAL
WATERS OVERNIGHT. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES EXPECTED
TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.AVIATION...
OVERNIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON TERMINALS. SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 5 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY BACK
TO MORE OF A DUE SOUTH DIRECTION AFTER 12Z. FEW-SCT CLOUDS WILL BE
FOUND AT FL025-030 AND BKN-OVC MID TO HIGH CLOUDS AT FL150-200.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1886...2.65 INCHES
OF RAIN FELL IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR MAXIMUM
RAINFALL MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON JULY 30TH...A RECORD WHICH STILL
STANDS 129 YEARS LATER. RAINFALL RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO
1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION.............................FUTTERMAN
DATA ACQUISITION.....................FLING

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 301846
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
245 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT MAINLY SOUTHWEST WINDS...TEMPERATURES ARE
AVERAGING IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ALONG THE FLORIDA KEYS.
IN THE LOWER 90S IN KEYS COMMUNITIES. MEANWHILE...LOCAL RADARS ARE NOT DETECTING
ANY PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA. SURFACE WISE...A NARROW RIDGE
AXIS IS DRAPED OVER OUR ENTIRE AREA...RESULTING IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF
AROUND 5 KNOTS.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
THE SEMI-PERMANENT...DEEP LAYERED WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE REACHING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND ISLAND OF CUBA WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE SUNSHINE STATE. MEANWHILE...A MID AND UPPER LEVEL
LOW JUST EAST OF THE BAHAMAS WILL SLIDE WESTWARD AND APPROACH OUR AREA...RESULTING
IN BRIEF WEAKENING OF THE ANTICYCLONE. WITH THAT SAID...A DECOUPLED FLOW...LIMITED
MOISTURE AND A LIGHT AND CHAOTIC FLOW BELOW 700 MB WILL PROMPT ONLY
ISOLATED 10 TO 20 PERCENT POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEE NO REASON TO STRAY FROM
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 80S.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
A MODEST SUBTROPICAL SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR THE MAJORITY OF NEXT WEEK...WITH PERHAPS A COUPLE
OF SUBTLE UNDULATIONS MIGRATING ACROSS OUR REGION. WITH THAT SAID...MOISTURE
REMAINS FAIRLY BENIGN ALONG WITH A DECELERATING LOW LEVEL FLOW. THEREFORE...WILL
MAINTAIN ONLY ISOLATED 20 PERCENT POPS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 80S.
&&

.MARINE...
A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDING INTO OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA WILL HOLD
FIRM TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT...WINDS
WILL INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE...WITH THE HIGHER WINDS EXPECTED
ON HAWK CHANNEL AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL CONTINUE AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MAINLY WEST WINDS UNDER 5 KNOTS WILL BECOME
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...1890...THE LOW
TEMPERATURE WAS 69 DEGREES SETTING THE DAILY RECORD MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE FOR KEY WEST ON JULY 30TH. THIS RECORD STANDS 125 YEARS
LATER. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  82 92 80 92 / 20 10 10 10
MARATHON  82 94 80 94 / 20 20 10 10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/DIGITAL...APA
AVIATION/NOWCASTS............BWC
DATA ACQUISITION.............SC

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 301846
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
245 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT MAINLY SOUTHWEST WINDS...TEMPERATURES ARE
AVERAGING IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ALONG THE FLORIDA KEYS.
IN THE LOWER 90S IN KEYS COMMUNITIES. MEANWHILE...LOCAL RADARS ARE NOT DETECTING
ANY PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA. SURFACE WISE...A NARROW RIDGE
AXIS IS DRAPED OVER OUR ENTIRE AREA...RESULTING IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF
AROUND 5 KNOTS.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
THE SEMI-PERMANENT...DEEP LAYERED WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE REACHING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND ISLAND OF CUBA WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE SUNSHINE STATE. MEANWHILE...A MID AND UPPER LEVEL
LOW JUST EAST OF THE BAHAMAS WILL SLIDE WESTWARD AND APPROACH OUR AREA...RESULTING
IN BRIEF WEAKENING OF THE ANTICYCLONE. WITH THAT SAID...A DECOUPLED FLOW...LIMITED
MOISTURE AND A LIGHT AND CHAOTIC FLOW BELOW 700 MB WILL PROMPT ONLY
ISOLATED 10 TO 20 PERCENT POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEE NO REASON TO STRAY FROM
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 80S.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
A MODEST SUBTROPICAL SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR THE MAJORITY OF NEXT WEEK...WITH PERHAPS A COUPLE
OF SUBTLE UNDULATIONS MIGRATING ACROSS OUR REGION. WITH THAT SAID...MOISTURE
REMAINS FAIRLY BENIGN ALONG WITH A DECELERATING LOW LEVEL FLOW. THEREFORE...WILL
MAINTAIN ONLY ISOLATED 20 PERCENT POPS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 80S.
&&

.MARINE...
A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDING INTO OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA WILL HOLD
FIRM TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT...WINDS
WILL INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE...WITH THE HIGHER WINDS EXPECTED
ON HAWK CHANNEL AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL CONTINUE AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MAINLY WEST WINDS UNDER 5 KNOTS WILL BECOME
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...1890...THE LOW
TEMPERATURE WAS 69 DEGREES SETTING THE DAILY RECORD MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE FOR KEY WEST ON JULY 30TH. THIS RECORD STANDS 125 YEARS
LATER. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  82 92 80 92 / 20 10 10 10
MARATHON  82 94 80 94 / 20 20 10 10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/DIGITAL...APA
AVIATION/NOWCASTS............BWC
DATA ACQUISITION.............SC

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 301419
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1015 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
EARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE PHOTOGRAPHS SHOW VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE FLORIDA KEYS. MEANWHILE...LOCAL RADARS ARE NOT
DETECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA.
SURFACE WISE...A BROAD AND NEBULOUS RIDGE LIES ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND
AND THE BAHAMIAN CHAIN...AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. ON OUR MARINE
DISTRICT...WINDS ARE VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 5 KNOTS. OTHERWISE...OUR MORNING
SOUNDING SHOWS SCANT MOISTURE BELOW 700 MB...WITH SEVERAL SHALLOW...LOW LEVEL
ISOTHERMAL LAYERS. LIGHT AND CHAOTIC WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST ABOVE 850 MB...
BEFORE TURNING NORTH NORTHEAST ABOVE 500 MB.

.SHORT TERM UPDATE...(REST OF TODAY)
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WITH THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE DRAPED
ACROSS OUR REGION...SOUTHWARD INTO THE ISLAND OF CUBA. BECAUSE OF
THIS...CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR PERSIST BELOW 700 MB. WITH THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL DESCENT...MESOSCALE TRIGGERS IN THE FORM OF CLOUD LINE GENESIS
AND LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES WILL BE OUR PRECIPITATING SOURCES. DESPITE CHANGEABLE
SKIES DUE TO PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER 90S ALONG MOST KEYS COMMUNITIES. WITH THAT SAID...THE ONLY
UPDATE TO THE CURRENT PUBLIC FORECAST WILL BE TO REMOVE TRANSITIONAL
WORDING...AND INSERT ISOLATED 10 TO 20 PERCENT POPS FOR THE ENTIRE ISLAND CHAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH LINGERING BOUNDARIES AND SEVERAL WATERSPOUTS ALREADY BEING
OBSERVED SOUTH OF THE BAHIA HONDA AND MARATHON AREA...MARINERS SHOULD BE
ALERT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL WATERSPOUTS ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS
ADJACENT TO THE ISLAND CHAIN FOR THE BALANCE OF THIS MORNING. OUTSIDE OF ANY
SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS OR OUFLOW BOUNDARIES...WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE TO
SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS ON ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL CONTINUE AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER
TO PASS NEAR BY EITHER OF THE TERMINALS...BUT DUE TO TIMING WILL
ADDRESS THIS WITH AN AMENDMENT IF NEEDED. OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS
UNDER 5 KNOTS FROM WEST TO NORTH ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...1890...THE LOW
TEMPERATURE WAS 69 DEGREES SETTING THE DAILY RECORD MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE FOR KEY WEST ON JULY 30TH. THIS RECORD STANDS 125 YEARS
LATER. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&


.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.DIGITAL.........APA
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.............KN
DATA ACQUISITION..............SC

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 301419
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1015 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
EARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE PHOTOGRAPHS SHOW VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE FLORIDA KEYS. MEANWHILE...LOCAL RADARS ARE NOT
DETECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA.
SURFACE WISE...A BROAD AND NEBULOUS RIDGE LIES ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND
AND THE BAHAMIAN CHAIN...AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. ON OUR MARINE
DISTRICT...WINDS ARE VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 5 KNOTS. OTHERWISE...OUR MORNING
SOUNDING SHOWS SCANT MOISTURE BELOW 700 MB...WITH SEVERAL SHALLOW...LOW LEVEL
ISOTHERMAL LAYERS. LIGHT AND CHAOTIC WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST ABOVE 850 MB...
BEFORE TURNING NORTH NORTHEAST ABOVE 500 MB.

.SHORT TERM UPDATE...(REST OF TODAY)
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WITH THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE DRAPED
ACROSS OUR REGION...SOUTHWARD INTO THE ISLAND OF CUBA. BECAUSE OF
THIS...CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR PERSIST BELOW 700 MB. WITH THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL DESCENT...MESOSCALE TRIGGERS IN THE FORM OF CLOUD LINE GENESIS
AND LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES WILL BE OUR PRECIPITATING SOURCES. DESPITE CHANGEABLE
SKIES DUE TO PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER 90S ALONG MOST KEYS COMMUNITIES. WITH THAT SAID...THE ONLY
UPDATE TO THE CURRENT PUBLIC FORECAST WILL BE TO REMOVE TRANSITIONAL
WORDING...AND INSERT ISOLATED 10 TO 20 PERCENT POPS FOR THE ENTIRE ISLAND CHAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH LINGERING BOUNDARIES AND SEVERAL WATERSPOUTS ALREADY BEING
OBSERVED SOUTH OF THE BAHIA HONDA AND MARATHON AREA...MARINERS SHOULD BE
ALERT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL WATERSPOUTS ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS
ADJACENT TO THE ISLAND CHAIN FOR THE BALANCE OF THIS MORNING. OUTSIDE OF ANY
SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS OR OUFLOW BOUNDARIES...WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE TO
SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS ON ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL CONTINUE AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER
TO PASS NEAR BY EITHER OF THE TERMINALS...BUT DUE TO TIMING WILL
ADDRESS THIS WITH AN AMENDMENT IF NEEDED. OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS
UNDER 5 KNOTS FROM WEST TO NORTH ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...1890...THE LOW
TEMPERATURE WAS 69 DEGREES SETTING THE DAILY RECORD MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE FOR KEY WEST ON JULY 30TH. THIS RECORD STANDS 125 YEARS
LATER. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&


.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.DIGITAL.........APA
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.............KN
DATA ACQUISITION..............SC

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 300755
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
355 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - A WEAK RIDGE AXIS REMAINS ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS
AREA...KEEPING WINDS VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE. LOWER LEVEL RIDGING AND
ASSOCIATED DRIER AIR AND SOME INHIBITION THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS HAS
KEPT SHOWER FORMATION AT BAY. AMPLE SUNSHINE AND WEAK FLOW HAS LET
DAY TIME HIGHS NOSE INTO THE LOWER 90S...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS HAVE
BEEN GENERALLY NEAR 80. SKIES REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY MAINLY DUE TO
POCKETS OF THICK CIRRUS STREAMING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

FORECAST - THE RIDGE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR THE ISLAND CHAIN
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK...INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WITH THAT SAID...THE RIDGE AXIS IS
EXPECTED TO OSCILLATE A BIT FURTHER NORTHWARD DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND...AND A MORE DETERMINED BUT LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
IS EXPECTED. THEREAFTER...THE RIDGE SETTLES BACK SOUTHWARD...AND
WINDS RELAX AND WILL AT TIMES BECOME VARIABLE.

THE WEAK FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN SLIGHT AT
LEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO
THE PERSISTENT LOWER LEVEL RIDGING RUNNING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN NEAR THE ISLAND CHAIN FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THIS WILL KEEP LIGHT AND AT TIMES
VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS KEYS WATERS. THE RIDGE AXIS MAY EDGE A BIT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...AND A SOMEWHAT
STRONGER AND PREVAILING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
WINDS WILL THEN SLACKEN AGAIN NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS BACK NEAR
THE KEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR AND VARIABLE WINDS NEAR 5 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL AT THE EYW AND MTH
TERMINALS.

&&

.CLIMATE...JULY 30TH...ON THIS DATE IN KEY WEST CLIMATE HISTORY...IN
1933...THE HIGH TEMPERATURE REACHED 94 DEGREES...A RECORD WHICH
STANDS 82 YEARS LATER. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE REACHED 94 DEGREES IN
KEY WEST TWO DAYS AGO (TUE)...AND WILL LIKELY REACH INTO THE LOWER
90S THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  93  80  91  82 / 10 20 20 20
MARATHON  93  80  93  82 / 10 20 20 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....CLR

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 300755
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
355 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - A WEAK RIDGE AXIS REMAINS ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS
AREA...KEEPING WINDS VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE. LOWER LEVEL RIDGING AND
ASSOCIATED DRIER AIR AND SOME INHIBITION THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS HAS
KEPT SHOWER FORMATION AT BAY. AMPLE SUNSHINE AND WEAK FLOW HAS LET
DAY TIME HIGHS NOSE INTO THE LOWER 90S...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS HAVE
BEEN GENERALLY NEAR 80. SKIES REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY MAINLY DUE TO
POCKETS OF THICK CIRRUS STREAMING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

FORECAST - THE RIDGE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR THE ISLAND CHAIN
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK...INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WITH THAT SAID...THE RIDGE AXIS IS
EXPECTED TO OSCILLATE A BIT FURTHER NORTHWARD DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND...AND A MORE DETERMINED BUT LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
IS EXPECTED. THEREAFTER...THE RIDGE SETTLES BACK SOUTHWARD...AND
WINDS RELAX AND WILL AT TIMES BECOME VARIABLE.

THE WEAK FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN SLIGHT AT
LEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO
THE PERSISTENT LOWER LEVEL RIDGING RUNNING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN NEAR THE ISLAND CHAIN FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THIS WILL KEEP LIGHT AND AT TIMES
VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS KEYS WATERS. THE RIDGE AXIS MAY EDGE A BIT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...AND A SOMEWHAT
STRONGER AND PREVAILING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
WINDS WILL THEN SLACKEN AGAIN NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS BACK NEAR
THE KEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR AND VARIABLE WINDS NEAR 5 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL AT THE EYW AND MTH
TERMINALS.

&&

.CLIMATE...JULY 30TH...ON THIS DATE IN KEY WEST CLIMATE HISTORY...IN
1933...THE HIGH TEMPERATURE REACHED 94 DEGREES...A RECORD WHICH
STANDS 82 YEARS LATER. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE REACHED 94 DEGREES IN
KEY WEST TWO DAYS AGO (TUE)...AND WILL LIKELY REACH INTO THE LOWER
90S THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  93  80  91  82 / 10 20 20 20
MARATHON  93  80  93  82 / 10 20 20 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....CLR

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 300118
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
920 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES
OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE VARIABLY CLOUDY. WINDS OVER LAND ARE
SOUTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE SOUTHWEST AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 80S.

.SHORT TERM (OVERNIGHT)...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
OVERNIGHT. FARTHER SOUTH...THE WESTERN EXTENT OF AN ATLANTIC RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT. THE 00Z
KKEY SOUNDING IS VERY UNSTABLE...BUT DRY FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE JUST ABOVE ONE AND ONE HALF
OF AN INCH. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONSTANT OVERNIGHT. THE
RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR NO MORE
THAN DIME POPS TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ON ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES EXPECTED TONIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT BOTH KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS AT EITHER
TERMINAL...WITH A FEW CUMULUS...WITH BASES AT OR ABOUT FL025-030 AND
CIRRUS AT OR ABOUT FL250-300.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1996...1.23 INCHES
OF RAIN FELL AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THIS SET THE DAILY
RECORD FOR MAXIMUM RAINFALL MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON JULY 29TH.
RAINFALL RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION.............................FUTTERMAN
DATA ACQUISITION.....................VICKERY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 300118
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
920 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES
OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE VARIABLY CLOUDY. WINDS OVER LAND ARE
SOUTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE SOUTHWEST AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 80S.

.SHORT TERM (OVERNIGHT)...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
OVERNIGHT. FARTHER SOUTH...THE WESTERN EXTENT OF AN ATLANTIC RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT. THE 00Z
KKEY SOUNDING IS VERY UNSTABLE...BUT DRY FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE JUST ABOVE ONE AND ONE HALF
OF AN INCH. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONSTANT OVERNIGHT. THE
RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR NO MORE
THAN DIME POPS TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ON ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES EXPECTED TONIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT BOTH KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS AT EITHER
TERMINAL...WITH A FEW CUMULUS...WITH BASES AT OR ABOUT FL025-030 AND
CIRRUS AT OR ABOUT FL250-300.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1996...1.23 INCHES
OF RAIN FELL AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THIS SET THE DAILY
RECORD FOR MAXIMUM RAINFALL MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON JULY 29TH.
RAINFALL RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION.............................FUTTERMAN
DATA ACQUISITION.....................VICKERY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 291829
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
228 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...VARIABLE WINDS...TEMPERATURES ARE AVERAGING
IN THE LOWER 90S IN KEYS COMMUNITIES. MEANWHILE...LOCAL RADARS ARE DETECTING
A FEW SHOWERS TRACKING EAST SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE OUTER WATERS OF MAINLAND
MONROE. SURFACE WISE...AN EAST-WEST...ORIENTED RIDGE AXIS IS LOCKED DOWN AND
ACROSS OUR ENTIRE REGION...WITH VARIABLE WINDS OF LESS THAN 10 KNOTS ON
OUR COASTAL WATERS.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH A DEEP TROPOSPHERIC...NARROW
RIDGE LYING ACROSS OUR AREA AND THE ISLAND OF CUBA...WITH A TROUGH/CUT-OFF
LOW LINGERING IN CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS
BECAUSE OF LOG JAM ALOFT. BECAUSE OF THIS...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL MEANDER ON OUR
COUNTY WARNING FOR AT LEAST THE COUPLE OF DAYS. GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE BELOW
700 MB AND A PREDOMINATE WESTERLY STEERING FLOW...IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAINFALL WILL BE IN THE UPPER KEYS AND THE ADJACENT NEARSHORE WATERS.
FOR NOW...WILL KEEP 20 PERCENT POPS WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE MAV/ECS MOS GUIDANCE.
DUE TO LIGHT WINDS...SEE NO REASON TO STRAY FROM HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S TO PERHAPS LOWER 80S.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE PERSISTENT WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE AXIS DRAPED ACROSS EXTREME SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE KEYS WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE SUNSHINE STATE...AS A MINOR LOW LEVEL PERTURBATION MIGRATES WESTWARD
AND POSSIBLY CROSSES OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. REGARDLESS OF THIS
UNDULATION...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FAIRLY SCANT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SUBSEQUENTLY...ONLY ISOLATED 20 PERCENT POPS WILL BE RETAINED WITH HIGHS
AVERAGING IN THE LOWER 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 80 DEGREES.

&&

.MARINE...
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREDOMINATELY
VARY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS FOR THE BALANCE OF
THIS WEEK...BEFORE A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT SIMILAR SPEEDS PREVAIL
FOR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT BOTH KEY WEST AND
MARATHON TERMINALS TONIGHT. WINDS UP TO 6 KNOTS WITH A GENERAL
DIRECTION FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL AROUND SUNSET
TONIGHT...WHEN WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  80 92 80 92 / 20 20 20 20
MARATHON  80 94 80 94 / 20 20 20 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/DIGITAL...APA
AVIATION/NOWCASTS............KN
DATA ACQUISITION.............SC

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 291829
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
228 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...VARIABLE WINDS...TEMPERATURES ARE AVERAGING
IN THE LOWER 90S IN KEYS COMMUNITIES. MEANWHILE...LOCAL RADARS ARE DETECTING
A FEW SHOWERS TRACKING EAST SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE OUTER WATERS OF MAINLAND
MONROE. SURFACE WISE...AN EAST-WEST...ORIENTED RIDGE AXIS IS LOCKED DOWN AND
ACROSS OUR ENTIRE REGION...WITH VARIABLE WINDS OF LESS THAN 10 KNOTS ON
OUR COASTAL WATERS.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH A DEEP TROPOSPHERIC...NARROW
RIDGE LYING ACROSS OUR AREA AND THE ISLAND OF CUBA...WITH A TROUGH/CUT-OFF
LOW LINGERING IN CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS
BECAUSE OF LOG JAM ALOFT. BECAUSE OF THIS...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL MEANDER ON OUR
COUNTY WARNING FOR AT LEAST THE COUPLE OF DAYS. GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE BELOW
700 MB AND A PREDOMINATE WESTERLY STEERING FLOW...IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAINFALL WILL BE IN THE UPPER KEYS AND THE ADJACENT NEARSHORE WATERS.
FOR NOW...WILL KEEP 20 PERCENT POPS WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE MAV/ECS MOS GUIDANCE.
DUE TO LIGHT WINDS...SEE NO REASON TO STRAY FROM HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S TO PERHAPS LOWER 80S.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE PERSISTENT WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE AXIS DRAPED ACROSS EXTREME SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE KEYS WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE SUNSHINE STATE...AS A MINOR LOW LEVEL PERTURBATION MIGRATES WESTWARD
AND POSSIBLY CROSSES OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. REGARDLESS OF THIS
UNDULATION...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FAIRLY SCANT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SUBSEQUENTLY...ONLY ISOLATED 20 PERCENT POPS WILL BE RETAINED WITH HIGHS
AVERAGING IN THE LOWER 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 80 DEGREES.

&&

.MARINE...
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREDOMINATELY
VARY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS FOR THE BALANCE OF
THIS WEEK...BEFORE A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT SIMILAR SPEEDS PREVAIL
FOR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT BOTH KEY WEST AND
MARATHON TERMINALS TONIGHT. WINDS UP TO 6 KNOTS WITH A GENERAL
DIRECTION FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL AROUND SUNSET
TONIGHT...WHEN WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  80 92 80 92 / 20 20 20 20
MARATHON  80 94 80 94 / 20 20 20 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/DIGITAL...APA
AVIATION/NOWCASTS............KN
DATA ACQUISITION.............SC

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 291412
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1010 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
EARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE PHOTOGRAPHS SHOW SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES
ALREADY IN THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN. MEANWHILE...LOCAL RADARS
ARE DETECTING ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ON THE OUTER WATERS OF MAINLAND MONROE...WELL
WEST OF CHOKOLOSKEE. SURFACE WISE...A BROAD RIDGE AXIS IS DRAPED ACROSS OUR MARINE
DISTRICT...RESULTING IN VARIABLE WINDS OF LESS THAN 5 KNOTS. OTHERWISE...OUR
MORNING SOUNDING REVEALS TWO DISTINCT DRY LAYERS BELOW 700 AND 850 MB...
WITH 24 AND 16 DEGREE C TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS RESPECTIVELY. LIGHT
AND CHAOTIC WINDS BECOME A MODEST UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHWEST ABOVE 850 MB.

.SHORT TERM UPDATE...(REST OF TODAY)
WITH OUR AREA LYING WITHIN DEEP ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR IS
EVIDENT IN THE MORNING RAWINDSONDE WHICH LEADS TO MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS
IN THE FORM OF CLOUD LINE GENESIS AS THE SOLE PRECIPITATION SOURCE TODAY.
WITH THAT SAID...DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL POSE AN ARDUOUS CHALLENGE
TO A PRECIPITATING CONVERGENCE BAND ALONG THE FLORIDA KEYS. HENCE...ONLY
ISOLATED 10 TO PERHAPS 20 PERCENT POPS SEEM TO BE IN THE BALL PARK...WHILE
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S ALONG MOST ISLAND COMMUNITIES.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS LYING ACROSS OUR MARINE DISTRICT...WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE
TO MOSTLY WEST AND INCREASE TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS
ADJACENT TO SOUTH FLORIDA.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH KEY WEST AND
MARATHON TERMINALS. WINDS OF AROUND 6 KNOTS WITH A GENERAL DIRECTION
FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST ARE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&


.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.DIGITAL.........APA
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.............KN
DATA ACQUISITION..............SC

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 291412
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1010 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
EARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE PHOTOGRAPHS SHOW SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES
ALREADY IN THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN. MEANWHILE...LOCAL RADARS
ARE DETECTING ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ON THE OUTER WATERS OF MAINLAND MONROE...WELL
WEST OF CHOKOLOSKEE. SURFACE WISE...A BROAD RIDGE AXIS IS DRAPED ACROSS OUR MARINE
DISTRICT...RESULTING IN VARIABLE WINDS OF LESS THAN 5 KNOTS. OTHERWISE...OUR
MORNING SOUNDING REVEALS TWO DISTINCT DRY LAYERS BELOW 700 AND 850 MB...
WITH 24 AND 16 DEGREE C TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS RESPECTIVELY. LIGHT
AND CHAOTIC WINDS BECOME A MODEST UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHWEST ABOVE 850 MB.

.SHORT TERM UPDATE...(REST OF TODAY)
WITH OUR AREA LYING WITHIN DEEP ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR IS
EVIDENT IN THE MORNING RAWINDSONDE WHICH LEADS TO MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS
IN THE FORM OF CLOUD LINE GENESIS AS THE SOLE PRECIPITATION SOURCE TODAY.
WITH THAT SAID...DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL POSE AN ARDUOUS CHALLENGE
TO A PRECIPITATING CONVERGENCE BAND ALONG THE FLORIDA KEYS. HENCE...ONLY
ISOLATED 10 TO PERHAPS 20 PERCENT POPS SEEM TO BE IN THE BALL PARK...WHILE
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S ALONG MOST ISLAND COMMUNITIES.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS LYING ACROSS OUR MARINE DISTRICT...WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE
TO MOSTLY WEST AND INCREASE TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS
ADJACENT TO SOUTH FLORIDA.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH KEY WEST AND
MARATHON TERMINALS. WINDS OF AROUND 6 KNOTS WITH A GENERAL DIRECTION
FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST ARE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&


.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.DIGITAL.........APA
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.............KN
DATA ACQUISITION..............SC

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 290753
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
353 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - A WEAK RIDGE AXIS STRETCHES ACROSS THE KEYS
AREA...RESULTING IN VERY LIGHT WINDS...THAT VARY IN DIRECTION QUITE A
BIT THROUGH THE COURSE OF A DAY. LOWER LEVEL RIDGING WITH ASSOCIATED
DRIER AIR IS ALSO IN PLACE. THIS EVENINGS SOUNDING INDICATED A PWAT
NEAR 1.75 INCHES WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INHIBITION. WITH THAT
SAID...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN QUITE MUTED ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

FORECAST - THE WEAK RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
KEEP WINDS QUITE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE LOWER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALSO
REMAIN CLOSE BY. DRIER MID LEVEL AIR...BACKGROUND ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW...AND NO NOTABLE TRIGGERS WILL KEEP POPS SLIGHT THROUGH THE
DURATION OF THE FORECAST. DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO
AMPLE SUNSHINE...WEAK FLOW...AND SEASONABLY WARM WATER TEMPERATURES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE
INTERIOR LOCATIONS BEING ABLE TO RADIATE DOWN TO THE DEW POINT.

&&

.MARINE...
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS KEYS WATERS THROUGH THE DURATION
OF THE FORECAST...KEEPING LIGHT AND VARYING WINDS ON KEYS WATERS. NO
CAUTIONS OR ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR AND VARIABLE WINDS NEAR 5 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL AT THE
EYW AND MTH TERMINALS. RAIN CHANCES ARE NEARLY NIL FOR BOTH
TERMINALS.

&&

.CLIMATE...THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
REACHED 94 DEGREES ON TUESDAY...JULY 28TH...ONE DEGREE SHY OF THE
DAILY RECORD (95) SET IN 1881. TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN KEY WEST DATE
BACK TO 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  90  82  90  83 / 20 20 20 20
MARATHON  93  81  93  82 / 20 20 20 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....CLR
DATA COLLECTION.......99

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 290753
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
353 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - A WEAK RIDGE AXIS STRETCHES ACROSS THE KEYS
AREA...RESULTING IN VERY LIGHT WINDS...THAT VARY IN DIRECTION QUITE A
BIT THROUGH THE COURSE OF A DAY. LOWER LEVEL RIDGING WITH ASSOCIATED
DRIER AIR IS ALSO IN PLACE. THIS EVENINGS SOUNDING INDICATED A PWAT
NEAR 1.75 INCHES WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INHIBITION. WITH THAT
SAID...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN QUITE MUTED ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

FORECAST - THE WEAK RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
KEEP WINDS QUITE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE LOWER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALSO
REMAIN CLOSE BY. DRIER MID LEVEL AIR...BACKGROUND ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW...AND NO NOTABLE TRIGGERS WILL KEEP POPS SLIGHT THROUGH THE
DURATION OF THE FORECAST. DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO
AMPLE SUNSHINE...WEAK FLOW...AND SEASONABLY WARM WATER TEMPERATURES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE
INTERIOR LOCATIONS BEING ABLE TO RADIATE DOWN TO THE DEW POINT.

&&

.MARINE...
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS KEYS WATERS THROUGH THE DURATION
OF THE FORECAST...KEEPING LIGHT AND VARYING WINDS ON KEYS WATERS. NO
CAUTIONS OR ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR AND VARIABLE WINDS NEAR 5 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL AT THE
EYW AND MTH TERMINALS. RAIN CHANCES ARE NEARLY NIL FOR BOTH
TERMINALS.

&&

.CLIMATE...THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
REACHED 94 DEGREES ON TUESDAY...JULY 28TH...ONE DEGREE SHY OF THE
DAILY RECORD (95) SET IN 1881. TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN KEY WEST DATE
BACK TO 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  90  82  90  83 / 20 20 20 20
MARATHON  93  81  93  82 / 20 20 20 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....CLR
DATA COLLECTION.......99

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