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000
FXUS62 KKEY 241204
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
804 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 25/12Z...AT THE MARATHON ISLAND TERMINAL...EXPECTING MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z. MOSTLY VFR WITH
BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AT WILL PERSIST AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z. THE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST IS DUE TO THE
NEAR BY FRONT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AND THE AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS THIS MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE ALOFT INTO A NORTHEAST FETCH
DRIVING THE LOW LEVEL SHOWERS. AS INDICATED BY THE MORE OPTIMISTIC
FORECAST FOR KEY WEST...THE EXPECTATION IS FOR SHOWERS TO CLEAR THE
AREA SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THIS MORNING. IT WILL TAKE A
BIT LONGER FOR RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER TO EXIT THE AREA...HENCE THE MVFR
CEILINGS OVER KEY WEST.

&&

$$

AVIATION...BWC

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 240823
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
423 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN CUBA
IS MIGRATING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A STATIONARY FRONT HOLDING ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AREA. LAST
EVENINGS SOUNDING INDICATED A NEARLY SATURATED MOIST ADIABATIC
PROFILE...WITH A PWAT WELL ABOVE 2 INCHES. SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY WITH
A SWATH OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING ACROSS THE KEYS
AND SURROUNDING NEAR AND OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS HAVE INCREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER PORTIONS OF KEYS WATERS...AND PULASKI SHOAL AND
SMITH SHOAL ARE JUST A BIT ABOVE 20 KNOTS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST.

FORECAST - ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL APPROACH FLORIDA TODAY AND CROSS INTO THE ATLANTIC
ON SATURDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL ASSIST IN STRENGTHENING THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED LOW...AS IT MOVES OVER THE BAHAMAS BY THIS EVENING. AS A
RESULT...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE UNIFORMLY WINDY OUT OF THE NORTH BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH DRIER LOWER AND MID LEVEL...SITTING JUST
NORTH OF OUR AREA WILL BE PUSHED SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE KEYS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD ACT TO GREATLY DIMINISH THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS FOR THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON...THEN A CHANCE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. DAY
TIME HIGHS WILL NUDGE ABOVE 80 DEGREES WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING IN
THE MID 70S. BY TONIGHT...SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
INTO THE 60S AND ONLY ISOLATED WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED.

THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA AS
IT IS PICKED UP BY THE LIFTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS
DEPARTURE...ALONG WITH DAY TIME HEATING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD
RAPIDLY LOOSEN THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP TO A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH BREEZES BY LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ONLY A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING IS
ANTICIPATED...AS THERE IS NOT MUCH COLD AIR ADVECTION. HOWEVER...DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S. RAIN CHANCES WILL END
EARLY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO CONSIDERABLE DEEP LAYERED DRY
AIR...SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S...AND A
SUBSTANTIAL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.

A HIGH CELL WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...AND BEGIN STRETCHING OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC ON THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS ALONG WITH LOWER PRESSURES IN
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL FRESHEN WINDS OUT OF THE EAST BY EARLY
MONDAY. THIS ACCELERATING MARITIME TRAJECTORY WILL QUICKLY BUMP DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 70S AND DEEPEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
EXPECT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.MARINE...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN CUBA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FLORIDA STRAITS TODAY...INTO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT. AS A
RESULT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED BECOME MORE UNIFORMLY FRESH OUT OF THE
NORTH TODAY. PULASKI AND SMITH SHOALS ARE ALREADY REPORTING NORTHEAST
WINDS A BIT HIGHER THAN 20 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL KEYS WATERS. WINDS WILL REMAIN FRESH TODAY AND
TONIGHT...THEN DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY AS THE LOW
ACCELERATES AWAY INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC. MODERATE NORTHEAST BREEZES
WILL THEN PREVAIL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A HIGH CELL
SPREADS EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND GULF OF
MEXICO. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AGAIN FRESHEN OUT OF THE EAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH BECOME CENTERED TO OUR NORTH...AND PRESSURES
FALL IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. A CAUTION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR
KEYS WATERS BY MONDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS WILL TREND TOWARDS DECREASING RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN
SHOWERS WILL BE PROBABLE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...BEGINNING TO CLEAR
IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST FROM 12 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 18 TO
22 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WHICH COULD LEAD TO CROSSWINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS AT BOTH
TERMINALS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  82  75  82  73 / 70 30 -  -
MARATHON  82  75  82  72 / 70 30 -  -

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL KEYS WATERS
     GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....DEVANAS

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 240121
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
925 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE UPPER KEYS...AS WELL AS OVER
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS. ELSEWHERE...KBYX DETECTS
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES OVER
THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY. WINDS OVER LAND ARE NORTHEAST TO
EAST NEAR 15 MPH. C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE NORTHEAST TO EAST
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 70S.

.SHORT TERM (OVERNIGHT)...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA OVERNIGHT. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL WILL PROGRESS TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST TONIGHT INTO THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. THE 00Z KKEY SOUNDING IS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AND
EXTREMELY MOIST...WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE JUST UNDER TWO AND
ONE HALF OF AN INCH. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONSTANT
OVERNIGHT. RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT IN THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE KEPT
ABOVE ALL NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS DUE CYCLONIC FLOW IN ALL
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE COUPLED WITH THE EXCEPTIONALLY MOIST AIR
MASS IN PLACE.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT DUE TO SUSTAINED NORTHEAST TO EAST SURFACE WINDS NEAR 20
KNOTS...WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
BE REQUIRED FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS SATURDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO
EXERCISE CAUTION ON THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...HAWK
CHANNEL...AND FLORIDA BAY SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO SUSTAINED NORTH TO
NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO
EXERCISE CAUTION ON ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT DUE TO SUSTAINED NORTHEAST TO EAST SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20
KNOTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE ISLAND TERMINALS OF KEY WEST AND
MARATHON WILL TREND TOWARDS DECREASING RAIN CHANCES...BUT WITH
STRONG...AND GUSTY AT TIMES NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. RAIN CHANCES WITH
MVFR CATEGORY CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT SHOULD MAINLY BE
CONFINED TO THE MID MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. WINDS MAY SHIFT MORE
NORTHERLY LATE ON FRIDAY...WHICH MAY CAUSE A CROSSWIND CONDITION AT
THE AREA AIRPORTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 2005...A LARGE
WATERSPOUT NARROWLY MISSED MAKING LANDFALL IN KEY WEST AS IT RACED
NORTHWARD WITHIN AN OUTER RAINBAND OF HURRICANE WILMA. THIS VIOLENT
WATERSPOUT PASSED WITHIN THREE TO FOUR MILES WEST OF THE WEST END
OF KEY WEST.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....................MSB
DATA ACQUISITION.....................CHESSER

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 240018 RRA
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS...DELAYED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
230 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UNDER CLOUDY SKIES...NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE COVERING THE FLORIDA
KEYS...HAWK CHANNEL AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS WITH ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS ON THE WATERS IN AND AROUND DRY TORTUGAS AND THE OUTER
WATERS OF MAINLAND MONROE. DUE TO THE RAINFALL AND CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES ARE RANGING BETWEEN 75 AND 80 DEGREES. SURFACE
WISE...A STATIONARY FRONT LIES FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE
FLORIDA STRAITS...AND INTO THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND ATLANTIC OCEAN.
ACROSS OUR MARINE DISTRICT...AN EARLIER ASCAT AND C-MAN OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A COUPLE OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE
SOUTHEASTWARD AND THROUGH THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND
FLORIDA PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. BECAUSE OF THESE
IMPULSES ALOFT...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A NEARLY
STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO
THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND INTO THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE BAHAMAS AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...MUCH DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO OUR
REGION BY LATE FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER...NO
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. BUT UNTIL THEN...LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING...WILL DROP INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND ISOLATED BY FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURE WISE...LOWS WILL
AVERAGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS AVERAGING IN
THE LOWER 80S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE
ADJACENT ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS WILL EXPAND AND INTENSIFY OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE GULF
COAST REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
EASTWARD AND WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BECAUSE OF THE
DEEPENING AND FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW...MOISTURE BELOW 700 MB
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH ISOLATED CLIMO 20 PERCENT POPS AND
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BEGINNING MONDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
THE PRESSURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY DRAPED IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
MOSTLY NORTHEAST WINDS LATER TONIGHT...FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
BEFORE SLACKENING BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS.
THEREAFTER...WINDS WILL ABATE SOMEWHAT SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...BEFORE FRESHENING AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHEN ANOTHER ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED.


&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECTING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 24/12Z AT BOTH
THE KEYS WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS. THE WET PATTERN COMBINED WITH
THE EASTERLY WINDS BELOW 12K FEET CONTINUE TO PROVIDE PLENTY OF
INTERMITTENT LOW LEVEL SHOWERS CROSSING THE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SOME
GUSTINESS IN AND NEAR SHOWERS. WINDS INCREASE QUICKLY TO NEAR 20
KNOTS OFF THE DECK...ABOVE 1K FEET.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...2005...A VIOLENT WATERSPOUT
DEVELOPED IN THE OUTERMOST RAINBAND OF HURRICANE WILMA AND PASSED
JUST TO THE WEST OF KEY WEST. THIS WATERSPOUT WAS EXTREMELY LARGE
AND TRACKED FROM 20 MILES SOUTH OF KEY WEST TO THE GULF WATERS WEST
OF MARCO ISLAND IN COLLIER COUNTY...NEARLY 140 MILES.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  74  82  82  75 / 70 70 30 -
MARATHON  74  82  82  74 / 70 70 30 -

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........APA
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BWC
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 231509
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1108 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS ON THE FLORIDA
STRAITS...AND SCATTERED CELLS ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN AND NORTHWARD
INTO THE BAY AND GULF WATERS. SURFACE WISE...A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND INTO THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE IS PRESSING SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES AND DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. ACROSS OUR MARINE
DISTRICT...C-MAN STATION PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS INDICATE NORTHEAST TO
EAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

.FORECAST...
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING OVER THE FLORIDA
STRAITS...FRESH TO OCCASIONAL STRONG EAST WINDS BELOW 700 MB WILL
PROVIDE FORMIDABLE MOISTURE FLUX AND LOW LEVEL SPEED CONFLUENCE.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN MID AND UPPER LEVEL ASCENT SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTH WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY. WITH THAT SAID...HAVE UPDATED
THE PUBLIC ZONE FORECAST TO LOWER POPS FROM CATEGORICAL TO 60
PERCENT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE PRESSURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE STRAITS WILL RESULT IN
FRESH TO OCCASIONAL STRONG EAST WINDS ON ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HENCE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN STRAITS AND OUTER WATERS OF
MAINLAND MONROE...AND AN EXERCISE CAUTION ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN WET NEAR BOTH THE KEY WEST
AND MARATHON TERMINALS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR LIKELY...AND OCCASIONAL
IFR CONDITIONS. THEREAFTER EXPECTING THE BOUNDARY CLOSE IN ON THE
KEYS WITH DRIER AIR INFILTRATING THROUGH THE MID AND LOWER LEVELS.
WINDS ARE OUT OF THE EAST AT THE SURFACE AND INCREASE TO 20 KNOTS AT
1K FEET...HOWEVER...THIS DOES NOT MEET LLWS CRITERIA.

&&


.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........APA
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BWC
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 231205
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
805 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 24/12Z...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN WET NEAR BOTH THE KEY WEST
AND MARATHON TERMINALS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR LIKELY...AND OCCASIONAL
IFR CONDITIONS. THEREAFTER EXPECTING THE BOUNDARY CLOSE IN ON THE
KEYS WITH DRIER AIR INFILTRATING THROUGH THE MID AND LOWER LEVELS.
WINDS ARE OUT OF THE EAST AT THE SURFACE AND INCREASE TO 20 KNOTS AT
1K FEET...HOWEVER...THIS DOES NOT MEET LLWS CRITERIA.

&&

$$

AVIATION...BWC

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 230853
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
453 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PRESSING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO...BATTLING AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IN THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DESCRIBES THE DRY AND
SUBSIDENT AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE WAVE...WHILE
MOIST...ACCELERATING...AND DIFFLUENT AIR FANS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...ROUNDING THE APEX
OF THE ANTICYCLONE. THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL PATTERN IS JUST AS
COMPLEX...NORTHEASTERLIES AND UPPER 60 DEWPOINTS HAVE INVADED PAST
LAKE OKEECHOBEE...NORTH OF A WARM- FRONTISH AXIS LYING ACROSS THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. IN BETWEEN THE BASEMENT AND ATTIC...THE RESIDUAL
VORTICITY OF TD 9 IS STRETCHING TO THE NORTHEAST FROM THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL...WELL DEPICTED BY ANALYSES FROM CIMSS. THE RADAR DEPICTION
HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN THE LAST 18 HOURS...CONVECTION ACROSS THE
DISTANT FLORIDA STRAITS...WITH STRATIFORM EFFLUENT WRINGING-OUT
ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN. TEMPERATURE ARE IN THE MID 70S...WHILE
TROPICAL DEWPOINTS HOVER IN THE LOWER 70S.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE CONFLUENT ZONE ACROSS THE
FLORIDA STRAITS WILL LIKELY LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION. THE LOW-MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD
TONIGHT...CONSOLIDATING AS IT NEARS THE KEYS ON FRIDAY. THE HIGHEST
RAIN COVERAGE WILL BE TODAY...THEN SLOWLY TRAIL OFF TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY AS THE CONFLUENT ZONE SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ISLAND
CHAIN. THE FLUSHING NORTHEASTERLIES WILL BEGIN FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN
INTENSE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN
GULF. THE NORTHEASTERLIES MAY FIRST BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING NON- TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...BUT WILL TRANSITION TO AIR OF MORE CONTINENTAL ORIGIN BY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. ON SATURDAY...SKIES WILL BECOME CLEARER...RAIN
CHANCES WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY...AND HUMIDITY WILL DROP WITHIN
GUSTY NORTH-NORTHEAST BREEZES.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY WILL ECHO SATURDAY`S SENTIMENTS. THE CONTINENTAL HIGH
PRESSURE CELL WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND BREEZES WILL VEER TO THE
EAST...HERALDING MARITIME MODIFICATION WHICH WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...A DEVELOPING NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WHILE A COLD FRONT OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA MOVES
SOUTHWARD. THE COLD FRONT WILL ACCELERATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
LOCAL BREEZES WILL FLUCTUATE IN BOTH DIRECTION AND SPEED TODAY. NORTH
TO NORTHEAST BREEZES WILL BECOME FRESH TO STRONG OVER MOST OF THE
AREA BETWEEN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. BREEZES WILL REMAIN FRESH OUT OF
THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AND FRESH OUT OF THE
EAST ON MONDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...A WET WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT RAIN
OR DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT BOTH ISLAND TERMINALS. PERIODS OF
MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED AT BOTH ISLAND TERMINALS...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING THROUGH THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY EASTERLY
AT NEAR 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY AT KEY WEST...AND NEAR 10 KNOTS AT
MARATHON...WITH A DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  81  74  84  75 / 90 80 70 50
MARATHON  81  74  84  75 / 90 80 70 50

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ033-034-
     055.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....11
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 230232
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1032 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A COMPOSITE ANALYSIS THIS EVENING REVEALS A RATHER COMPLEX SYNOPTIC
SITUATION ACROSS THE REGION...INVOLVING AN UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC JET
STREAK...A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT...AN INCIPIENT WAVE CYCLONE...AND
ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE. SUSTAINED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH A VARIETY OF FORCING MECHANISMS...INCLUDING JET STREAK
CIRCULATION...DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION...ISENTROPIC
LIFT...AND LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE HAS KEPT THE
ATMOSPHERE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS NEARLY SATURATED FOR THE BETTER PART
OF TWO DAYS...DESPITE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING.
RAIN HAS BEEN FALLING FOR MORE HOURS THAN NOT IN MOST KEYS ISLAND
COMMUNITIES SINCE MIDDAY. RECENT DOPPLER RADAR BASE REFLECTIVITY DATA
SHOW AN EXPANDING AREA OF MODERATE RAIN OVER THE LOWER STRAITS OF
FLORIDA...JUST NORTH OF AN ACTIVE BAND OF DEEP...MOIST CONVECTION OFF
THE NORTH COAST OF WESTERN CUBA. A SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS EVENING
SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM EAST TO WEST FROM NEAR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. MEANWHILE...A DEVELOPING
BAROCLINIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BE EMERGING NEAR THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL...OUT OF THE BROADER TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE REGION FROM WHICH
TINY TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS BORN AND ALSO LIKELY WILL DIE.
ISALLOBARIC FORCING IS BEGINNING TO PLAY HAVOC WITH LOCAL SURFACE
WINDS...AS EXPECTED. MUCH HIGHER WIND SPEEDS ARE NOW OBSERVED OVER
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SERVICE AREA.

EXPECT OCCASIONAL RAIN OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
REMAIN JUST UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. LOWER AND MID-
TROPOSPHERIC WIND SPEEDS LIKELY WILL REMAIN BELOW THAT WHICH WOULD BE
REQUIRED FOR ANY STORM ORGANIZATION. NORTHEAST TO EAST SURFACE WINDS
WILL UNDERGO FITS AND STARTS AS A CLOSED LOW EVOLVES OVER THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. AIR TEMPERATURES LIKELY WILL STAY PINNED NEAR
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S. THE LOCAL DIGITAL FORECAST
DATABASE AND MOST OF THE DERIVED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED. NOTE
INCREASES IN FORECAST WIND SPEEDS FOR TONIGHT-SATURDAY PERIODS.
&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO INCLUDING DRY TORTUGAS AND REBECCA SHOAL CHANNEL...
AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA
ON THURSDAY. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...WHILE A COLD FRONT OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA MOVES
SOUTHWARD. THE COLD FRONT WILL ACCELERATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
LOCAL BREEZES WILL FLUCTUATE IN BOTH DIRECTION AND SPEED OVERNIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES WILL BECOME FRESH TO
STRONG OVER MOST OF THE AREA BETWEEN THURSDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
BREEZES WILL REMAIN FRESH OUT OF THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY...AND FRESH OUT OF THE EAST ON MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
RAIN...DRIZZLE...AND OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE ISLAND TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. RAIN WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND
PROLONGED AGAIN TOMORROW...BUT TIMING WILL OF THE HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY WILL BE DIFFICULT. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY EASTERLY...BUT
SWIRLY AT TIMES AND MAY BE BRIEFLY GUSTY AT ANY TIME EVEN OUTSIDE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....MSB
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 221852
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
252 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
FROM THE KBYX RADAR WE FIND SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE KEYS AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. FROM T A
SPACE REFERENCE FRAME WE SEE A DECAYING BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND A BROAD CIRCULATION NEAR THE YUCATAN....WITH
THE KEYS SITTING BETWEEN. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST NEAR
5 KNOTS AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS...AND NEAR 10 KNOTS AT THE C-MAN
STATIONS SURROUNDING THE ISLAND CHAIN. ALL LOCATIONS ARE EXPERIENCING
HIGHER GUSTS IN AND NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.FORECAST...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST OTHER THAN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT
TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE. IN ANY CASE THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL PROVIDE THE LIFTING FOR THE
ADDED MOISTURE FROM THE DEPRESSION TO THE SOUTHWEST. A MESO SCALE
CONVECTIVE VORTEX HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA SOUTH OF THE DRY TORTUGAS.
THE MCV WILL LIKELY BE THE LIFTING MECHANISM FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. THIS TIED WITH A FAVORABLE VEERING WIND
PROFILE WOULD GIVE MORE SUPPORT FOR DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THIS IN MIND WE HAVE 100 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. THIS LOW
IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND REMAIN
SOUTH OF CUBA THROUGH 5 DAYS. THE UPPER LEVELS WILL PROVIDE GOOD
VENTILATION DUE TO THE CO-LOCATION OF RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
JET OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS. SO THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL
INCLUDE PERIODS OF RAIN WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS...AND AT TIMES
LOCALIZED HEADY DOWNPOURS. BY FRIDAY NIGHT EXPECT A RIDGE TO BUILD
ACROSS THE EASTERN UNTIED STATES...USHERING THE TROUGH TO OUR NORTH
THROUGH THE KEYS AREA. THIS RIDGING WILL TURN WINDS NORTH TO
NORTHEAST AND BE A HARBINGER OF DRIER AIR AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF COOL
AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
THE TROUGH TO OUR NORTH IN COMBINATION WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE
NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE
THROUGH THE KEYS AREA ON SATURDAY...DRYING OUT THE ENVIRONMENT...AND
FRESHENING WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST ON ALL KEYS WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...
UNTIL 12Z/23RD...OCCASIONAL SUB-VFR EPISODES CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE
KEY WEST AND MARATHON AIRPORTS...OTHERWISE...CEILINGS WILL VARY
BETWEEN 040-080. OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...2008...7.30 INCHES OF RAIN
FELL AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT SETTING THE DAILY RECORD
RAINFALL FOR KEY WEST ON OCTOBER TWENTY SECOND. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR
KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  74  82  74  82 / + 90 80 70
MARATHON  74  82  74  82 / + 90 80 70

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....APA
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 221303
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
903 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
AREAS OF RAIN WITH FEWER THUNDERSTORMS...ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE KEYS
THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE NORTHEAST TO EAST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
EVERYWHERE ACROSS THE KEYS AT THIS HOUR. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
PUSHING OFF THE NORTHEAST METROPLEX WITH A TROUGH LAYING OFF THE EAST
COAST STATES...AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
NINE...NEAR THE YUCATAN AND BAY OF CAMPECHE IS SITTING IN THE TAIL
OF THIS TROUGH...PUMPING MOISTURE INTO THE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF AND CENTRAL TO WESTERN CARIBBEAN.

.FORECAST...
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL PROVIDE THE LIFTING FOR THE
ADDED MOISTURE FROM THE DEPRESSION TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS LOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND REMAIN SOUTH OF
CUBA THROUGH 5 DAYS. THE UPPER LEVELS WILL PROVIDE GOOD VENTILATION
DUE TO THE CO-LOCATION OF RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE KEYS. SO THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL INCLUDE PERIODS OF
RAIN WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS...AND AT TIMES LOCALIZED HEADY DOWNPOURS.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT EXPECT A RIDGE TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN UNTIED
STATES...USHERING THE TROUGH TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE KEYS AREA. THIS
RIDGING WILL TURN WINDS NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND BE A HARBINGER OF A
BRIEF PERIOD OF COOL AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
THE TROUGH TO OUR NORTH IN COMBINATION WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE
NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE
THROUGH THE KEYS AREA ON SATURDAY...DRYING OUT THE ENVIRONMENT...AND
FRESHENING WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST ON ALL KEYS WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN FROM 120 EARLY THIS
MORNING TO AROUND 080 BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...TO BETWEEN 040-050 BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MEANWHILE...THE PROBABILITY OF SUB-
VFR EPISODES WILL INCREASE DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY. AWAY FROM ANY
CELLS...MOSTLY EAST WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS CAN BE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.CLIMATE...


&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....APA
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 221148
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
748 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
UNTIL 00Z/23RD...WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN FROM
120 EARLY THIS MORNING TO AROUND 080 BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...TO
BETWEEN 040-050 BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MEANWHILE...THE
PROBABILITY OF SUB-VFR EPISODES WILL INCREASE DURING THE COURSE OF
TODAY. AWAY FROM ANY CELLS...MOSTLY EAST WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS
CAN BE ANTICIPATED.

&&

$$

AVIATION...APA

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 220842
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
442 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...A DEEP AND EXPANSIVE CYCLONIC GYRE PREVAILS ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...DEFORMING AND PRESSING THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE DEEP INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE...AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM MEXICO INTO THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES. WATER VAPOR LOOPS REVEAL SEVERAL SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING
AROUND THE CYCLONE...CULMINATING IN A CONFLUENT AND ACCELERATING JET
EAST OF FLORIDA. NESTLED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...RECENTLY FORMED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) #9 CREEPS EAST AT 6 MPH...SOUTH OF A
DENIGRATED AND BROAD BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH BISECTS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. MIMIC TPW LOOPS SUMMARIZE OUR FINDINGS...DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO...BATTLING THE TRANSGRESSION OF THE CONTINENTAL AIRMASS TO ITS
NORTH. THE SURFACE PATTERN PLACES THE KEYS VERY NEAR A COL
REGION...HENCE THE SQUIRRELY BREEZES. DESPITE ALL THE
VARIABILITY...MEAN SURFACE WINDS ARE FROM THE EAST AT AROUND 10
KNOTS. THE RADAR HAS BEEN SURPRISINGLY QUIET OVERNIGHT.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE CURRENT FORECAST FROM THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER SLIDES TD 9 SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.

THE BROAD BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL INCH
SOUTHWARD TODAY. A REINFORCING SHOT OF CONTINENTAL AIR WILL SHARPEN
ITS GRADIENT TONIGHT. THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME...FLOW WILL BE WEAKLY
CYCLONIC...MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL...AND INHIBITION WILL BE
MINIMAL. THE ICING ON THE CAKE WILL BE THE FAVORABLE VENTING ALOFT.
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ONE JET-STREAK WILL HAVE MIGRATED EAST
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY A STRONGER
COUNTERPART. THIS SECOND STREAK WILL BE THE LEADING HALF OF
SHARPENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL STEER THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
SOUTHWARD. ALL-THE- WHILE...STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME
MORE CYCLONIC...A MISMASH OF THE STRETCHED TD AND THE ENCROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TO SUMMARIZE...CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY LIKELY CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. WE DO NOT FEEL CHANCES LOWER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...BUT
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH DAY 3...WILL RETAIN THE INHERITED
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...A DIGGING SHORT WAVE
WILL HERALD A DRYING WEATHER PATTERN. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL
FEATURE A SHARP DROP-OFF IN RAIN CHANCES...ACCOMPANIED BY FRESHENING
NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES. LOWER HUMIDITY...SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES...AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A STACKED AND DEEP ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...ALLOWING MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEAST BREEZES TO
SLOWLY VEER TO THE EAST.

&&

.MARINE...THE COMBINATION OF A CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND A TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE
AREA CENTERED NEAR THE YUCATAN WILL MAINTAIN A RICH VEIN OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE INTO THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE JUST NORTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL PROVIDE
THE FOCUS FOR SEVERAL EPISODES OF HEAVY RAIN OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL MERGE WITH THE
TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE VICINITY OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...RESULTING IN FRESHENING NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES
ACROSS ALL FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...A MUCH WETTER THAN NORMAL WEATHER PATTERN HAS SPREAD
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND BROADER SURROUNDING AREA. AS A
RESULT...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE ISLAND
TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CURRENTLY...A BREAK IN THE
WEATHER IS KEEPING VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS...AND THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST...BUT CAN BE STRONG
AND GUSTY NEAR THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  83  75  83  75 / 80 80 80 70
MARATHON  83  75  83  75 / 80 80 80 70

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....11
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 220206
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1006 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
BOTH SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THIS EVENING INDICATE
OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS MOST OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS. MULTIPLE LAYERS IN THE ATMOSPHERE ARE POPULATED WITH NUMEROUS
CLOUD VARIETIES...INCLUDING PRECIPITATING ALTOSTRATUS AND A FEW
CUMULONIMBUS TOWERS OVER OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. AFTER A CLOUDY
AND RAINY DAY...MANY ISLAND COMMUNITIES ARE NOW RAIN-FREE. HOWEVER...
IT REMAINS DAMP AND MUGGY WITH BOTH AIR AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 70S. THE KEY WEST EVENING RAWINSONDE OBSERVATION INDICATED A
NEARLY SATURATED LAYER BETWEEN ABOUT 10000-25000 FEET ELEVATION...
WITH DRIER AIR BELOW. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE THERMODYNAMIC STRATIFICATION
WAS ANALYZED. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ENERGY WAS
PRESENT AS A RESULT OF A RAIN-COOLED BOUNDARY LAYER. CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION ENERGY LIKELY IS MUCH LESS OVER THE WARMER WATERS
SURROUNDING THE KEYS WHERE AIR TEMPERATURES ARE HOVERING NEAR 80F.

LARGE-SCALE FORCING AT BOTH LOW AND HIGH ALTITUDES ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND JET STREAM CIRCULATION...RESPECTIVELY...APPEARS
TO FAVOR CONTINUED DEEP ASCENT OVER THE SERVICE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL LEAD TO FURTHER DESTABILIZATION OF TROPOSPHERIC COLUMNS AND
LOWERING OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN AN ATMOSPHERE ALREADY NEAR
SATURATION. THE RESULT WILL BE THE LIKELY INCREASE IN RAIN...
SHOWER...AND THUNDERSTORM AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK. OUR PRESENT
FORECASTS INDICATE A HIGH PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE RAIN
OVERNIGHT...AND WE SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THIS PROGNOSIS. THE
DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE AND DERIVED TEXT AND GRAPHICS HAVE ALL BEEN
UPDATED...AND ARE AVAILABLE VIA THE USUAL CHANNELS.
&&

.MARINE...
THE COMBINATION OF A CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND A TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED
NEAR THE YUCATAN WILL MAINTAIN A RICH VEIN OF TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO
THE FLORIDA KEYS OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONTAL ZONE JUST NORTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS
FOR SEVERAL EPISODES OF HEAVY RAIN OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL MERGE WITH THE TROPICAL LOW
PRESSURE AREA IN THE VICINITY OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN FRESHENING NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES ACROSS
ALL FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS.
&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 22/24Z...RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL BE PRESENT IN MORE
OBSERVATIONS THAN NOT. REDUCTIONS TO MVFR OR IFR WILL ONLY OCCUR
WITH THE MORE VIGOROUS SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER...WHICH
WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME. THE ONLY FEATURE OF NOTE ON RADAR AT THIS
TIME IS AN EXPANDING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
WHICH IS SET TO IMPACT EYW BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z. IMPACTS AT MTH FROM
THIS FEATURE ARE DOUBTFUL.
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....MSB
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 220206
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1006 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
BOTH SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THIS EVENING INDICATE
OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS MOST OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS. MULTIPLE LAYERS IN THE ATMOSPHERE ARE POPULATED WITH NUMEROUS
CLOUD VARIETIES...INCLUDING PRECIPITATING ALTOSTRATUS AND A FEW
CUMULONIMBUS TOWERS OVER OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. AFTER A CLOUDY
AND RAINY DAY...MANY ISLAND COMMUNITIES ARE NOW RAIN-FREE. HOWEVER...
IT REMAINS DAMP AND MUGGY WITH BOTH AIR AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 70S. THE KEY WEST EVENING RAWINSONDE OBSERVATION INDICATED A
NEARLY SATURATED LAYER BETWEEN ABOUT 10000-25000 FEET ELEVATION...
WITH DRIER AIR BELOW. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE THERMODYNAMIC STRATIFICATION
WAS ANALYZED. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ENERGY WAS
PRESENT AS A RESULT OF A RAIN-COOLED BOUNDARY LAYER. CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION ENERGY LIKELY IS MUCH LESS OVER THE WARMER WATERS
SURROUNDING THE KEYS WHERE AIR TEMPERATURES ARE HOVERING NEAR 80F.

LARGE-SCALE FORCING AT BOTH LOW AND HIGH ALTITUDES ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND JET STREAM CIRCULATION...RESPECTIVELY...APPEARS
TO FAVOR CONTINUED DEEP ASCENT OVER THE SERVICE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL LEAD TO FURTHER DESTABILIZATION OF TROPOSPHERIC COLUMNS AND
LOWERING OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN AN ATMOSPHERE ALREADY NEAR
SATURATION. THE RESULT WILL BE THE LIKELY INCREASE IN RAIN...
SHOWER...AND THUNDERSTORM AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK. OUR PRESENT
FORECASTS INDICATE A HIGH PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE RAIN
OVERNIGHT...AND WE SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THIS PROGNOSIS. THE
DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE AND DERIVED TEXT AND GRAPHICS HAVE ALL BEEN
UPDATED...AND ARE AVAILABLE VIA THE USUAL CHANNELS.
&&

.MARINE...
THE COMBINATION OF A CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND A TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED
NEAR THE YUCATAN WILL MAINTAIN A RICH VEIN OF TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO
THE FLORIDA KEYS OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONTAL ZONE JUST NORTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS
FOR SEVERAL EPISODES OF HEAVY RAIN OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL MERGE WITH THE TROPICAL LOW
PRESSURE AREA IN THE VICINITY OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN FRESHENING NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES ACROSS
ALL FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS.
&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 22/24Z...RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL BE PRESENT IN MORE
OBSERVATIONS THAN NOT. REDUCTIONS TO MVFR OR IFR WILL ONLY OCCUR
WITH THE MORE VIGOROUS SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER...WHICH
WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME. THE ONLY FEATURE OF NOTE ON RADAR AT THIS
TIME IS AN EXPANDING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
WHICH IS SET TO IMPACT EYW BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z. IMPACTS AT MTH FROM
THIS FEATURE ARE DOUBTFUL.
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....MSB
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 211849
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
249 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
A LARGE AREA OF STRATOFORM RAIN IS ENVELOPING THE ISLAND CHAIN AND
SURROUNDING WATERS AT THIS HOUR. FROM THE KBYX RADAR WE CAN SEE A
MESO SCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX SPINNING TOWARD THE LOWER KEYS. ANALYSIS
INDICATES A STALLED FRONT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AND BACK TO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT THE C-MAN STATIONS REPORTING
AROUND THE ISLANDS...WITH NEAR 5 KNOTS REPORTED AT THE ISLAND
TERMINALS.

.FORECAST SHORT TERM (THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
THE STALLED TROUGH TO OUR NORTH PLUS THE WET ENVIRONMENT OVER THE
KEYS...AS OBSERVED BY THE MORNING SOUNDING...IS VERY WET...AND
FAIRLY UNSTABLE. THE LINGERING TROUGH TO OUR NORTH IS TRAPPING
MODERATE ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE WAVERING ACROSS THE KEYS AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO REFLECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE TROUGH...A WEAK
AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS BEING INVESTIGATED BY A RECON
FLIGHT...IS PUMPING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE KEYS ENVIRONMENT.

ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST...WE WILL KEEP
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND AT LEAST EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING BEFORE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA. WITH THIS HIGH PRESSURE EXPECT RAIN
CHANCES TO DIMINISH AND WINDS TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE RIDGE DOMINATES KEYS WEATHER THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL CONTINUE ON THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
FLORIDA STRAITS WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS
ON THURSDAY...SPREADING ACROSS THE ACROSS THE ENTIRE KEYS COASTAL
WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
UNTIL 12Z/22ND...EXPECT AT LEAST A COUPLE OF SUB-VFR EPISODES AT THE
KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS FOR THE BALANCE OF THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. AWAY FROM CELLS...MOSTLY EAST WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS CAN
BE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
OCTOBER 21ST...ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN
1883...THE DAILY RECORD RAINFALL OF 8.23" WAS RECORDED.
PRECIPITATION RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  75  82  75  81 / 80 80 80 80
MARATHON  74  82  74  81 / 80 80 80 80

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....APA
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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