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000
FXUS62 KKEY 222019
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
319 PM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT AIR TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 80F IN MOST ISLAND COMMUNITIES WITH
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S. A WEAK RIDGE OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURES
FALLING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF BASIN.

THE MAIN FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS THIS CYCLE INCLUDE INCREASING SOUTHEAST
WINDS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. AN INTENSIFYING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...ASSOCIATED ISALLOBARIC FORCING...AND SMALLER-SCALE
ACCELERATIONS INTO DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD RESULT IN CHANNELS OF ENHANCED EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS
FROM THE BAHAMAS ACROSS THE STRAITS AND GULF OF MEXICO. WE HAVE GONE
ABOVE ALL MODEL GUIDANCE FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING...AS EXPERIENCE HAS SHOWN THAT THE WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS
TEND TO UNDER-PREDICT WIND SPEEDS IN SUCH CASES. THEREAFTER...WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD ACTUALLY DECREASE AND BOX AROUND THE COMPASS IN ADVANCE
OF A WEAKENING TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...A WELL-DEFINED LOWER-
TROPOSPHERIC CONFLUENT ASYMPTOTE AND AREA OF NARROW MASS CONVERGENCE
SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SERVICE AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND
EARLY THURSDAY. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHOULD BE FAIRLY WEAK AS IT LIMPS THROUGH PROBABLY ON CHRISTMAS DAY.
THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN WILL SUPPORT FAST WEST TO EAST
TRANSLATION OF A WEAK...POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE CELL...AND THIS
WILL LEAD TO A RAPID VEERING OF SURFACE WINDS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF SUSTAINED COLD THERMAL ADVECTION.
&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHEAST BREEZES SHOULD FRESHEN OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST. IN FACT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED BY EARLY
TUESDAY FOR SOME OR ALL ZONES. BREEZES THEN WILL SLACKEN AND BOX
AROUND THE COMPASS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE...
BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
CHRISTMAS MORNING. A BRIEF NORTHERLY WIND SURGE IS POSSIBLE BEHIND
THE WEAK FRONT THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH MODERATE BREEZES
TURNING NORTHEAST AND THEN EAST THEREAFTER.
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING AT THE EYW AND MTH TERMINALS.
TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS BASED AS LOW AS 010 ARE POSSIBLE AT BOTH
TERMINALS AFTER 06Z...ENDING AROUND 12Z. MOSTLY SOUTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE ISLAND AIRPORTS.
&&

.CLIMATE...
DECEMBER 22ND...ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1960...THE
DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 51 DEGREES WAS RECORDED AT KEY WEST.
TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.
&&

.PRELIM POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  74  81  74  79 / -  10 20 50
MARATHON  74  83  74  81 / -  10 20 50
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....CLR
DATA COLLECTION.......PARKE

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 222019
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
319 PM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT AIR TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 80F IN MOST ISLAND COMMUNITIES WITH
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S. A WEAK RIDGE OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURES
FALLING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF BASIN.

THE MAIN FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS THIS CYCLE INCLUDE INCREASING SOUTHEAST
WINDS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. AN INTENSIFYING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...ASSOCIATED ISALLOBARIC FORCING...AND SMALLER-SCALE
ACCELERATIONS INTO DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD RESULT IN CHANNELS OF ENHANCED EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS
FROM THE BAHAMAS ACROSS THE STRAITS AND GULF OF MEXICO. WE HAVE GONE
ABOVE ALL MODEL GUIDANCE FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING...AS EXPERIENCE HAS SHOWN THAT THE WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS
TEND TO UNDER-PREDICT WIND SPEEDS IN SUCH CASES. THEREAFTER...WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD ACTUALLY DECREASE AND BOX AROUND THE COMPASS IN ADVANCE
OF A WEAKENING TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...A WELL-DEFINED LOWER-
TROPOSPHERIC CONFLUENT ASYMPTOTE AND AREA OF NARROW MASS CONVERGENCE
SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SERVICE AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND
EARLY THURSDAY. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHOULD BE FAIRLY WEAK AS IT LIMPS THROUGH PROBABLY ON CHRISTMAS DAY.
THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN WILL SUPPORT FAST WEST TO EAST
TRANSLATION OF A WEAK...POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE CELL...AND THIS
WILL LEAD TO A RAPID VEERING OF SURFACE WINDS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF SUSTAINED COLD THERMAL ADVECTION.
&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHEAST BREEZES SHOULD FRESHEN OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST. IN FACT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED BY EARLY
TUESDAY FOR SOME OR ALL ZONES. BREEZES THEN WILL SLACKEN AND BOX
AROUND THE COMPASS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE...
BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
CHRISTMAS MORNING. A BRIEF NORTHERLY WIND SURGE IS POSSIBLE BEHIND
THE WEAK FRONT THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH MODERATE BREEZES
TURNING NORTHEAST AND THEN EAST THEREAFTER.
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING AT THE EYW AND MTH TERMINALS.
TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS BASED AS LOW AS 010 ARE POSSIBLE AT BOTH
TERMINALS AFTER 06Z...ENDING AROUND 12Z. MOSTLY SOUTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE ISLAND AIRPORTS.
&&

.CLIMATE...
DECEMBER 22ND...ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1960...THE
DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 51 DEGREES WAS RECORDED AT KEY WEST.
TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.
&&

.PRELIM POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  74  81  74  79 / -  10 20 50
MARATHON  74  83  74  81 / -  10 20 50
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....CLR
DATA COLLECTION.......PARKE

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 221613
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1113 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL CUMUILFORM CLOUD COVERAGE HAS OCCURRED
WITHIN THE LAST 24 HOURS...COINCIDENT WITH A FURTHER WARMING AND
MOISTENING OF THE NEAR-SURFACE LAYER AND CORRESPONDING DECREASE IN
STATIC STABILITY. LATEST RADAR SCANS STILL SHOW ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
ALONG A NORTHWARD-MOVING BOUNDARY. CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR WAS STILL
PRESENT ABOVE 3000 FEET...AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IS CLEARLY A
LIMITING FACTOR.

CURRENTLY...AIR TEMPERATURES IN MOST KEYS ISLAND COMMUNITIES ARE NEAR
80F...WITH DEWPOINTS HAVING COME UP A FEW MORE DEGREES SINCE
YESTERDAY...WITH VALUES NOW IN THE LOWER 70S. SKIES ARE PARTLY
CLOUDY WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BREEZES TEMPERING THE WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS JUST A BIT.

FORECASTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON ARE ON TRACK...AND NO ADJUSTMENTS ARE
NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.
&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE TO MODERATE MAINLY SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PERSIST ACROSS
FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AT THE EYW AND MTH TERMINALS.
TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS BASED AS LOW AS 010 ARE POSSIBLE AT BOTH
TERMINALS AFTER 06Z...ENDING AROUND 12Z. MOSTLY SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10
KNOTS OR LESS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE ISLAND AIRPORTS.
&&

.CLIMATE...
DECEMBER 22ND...ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1960...
THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 51 DEGREES WAS RECORDED AT KEY
WEST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....CLR
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 221613
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1113 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL CUMUILFORM CLOUD COVERAGE HAS OCCURRED
WITHIN THE LAST 24 HOURS...COINCIDENT WITH A FURTHER WARMING AND
MOISTENING OF THE NEAR-SURFACE LAYER AND CORRESPONDING DECREASE IN
STATIC STABILITY. LATEST RADAR SCANS STILL SHOW ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
ALONG A NORTHWARD-MOVING BOUNDARY. CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR WAS STILL
PRESENT ABOVE 3000 FEET...AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IS CLEARLY A
LIMITING FACTOR.

CURRENTLY...AIR TEMPERATURES IN MOST KEYS ISLAND COMMUNITIES ARE NEAR
80F...WITH DEWPOINTS HAVING COME UP A FEW MORE DEGREES SINCE
YESTERDAY...WITH VALUES NOW IN THE LOWER 70S. SKIES ARE PARTLY
CLOUDY WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BREEZES TEMPERING THE WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS JUST A BIT.

FORECASTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON ARE ON TRACK...AND NO ADJUSTMENTS ARE
NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.
&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE TO MODERATE MAINLY SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PERSIST ACROSS
FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AT THE EYW AND MTH TERMINALS.
TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS BASED AS LOW AS 010 ARE POSSIBLE AT BOTH
TERMINALS AFTER 06Z...ENDING AROUND 12Z. MOSTLY SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10
KNOTS OR LESS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE ISLAND AIRPORTS.
&&

.CLIMATE...
DECEMBER 22ND...ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1960...
THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 51 DEGREES WAS RECORDED AT KEY
WEST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....CLR
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 221134
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
634 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.AVIATION...
UNTIL 00Z/23RD...OTHER THAN A BRIEF MVFR CEILING MAINLY THIS
MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE AT THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON TERMINALS. CLOUD BASES WILL RANGE FROM 020-025...NEAR 100
AND 250. MOSTLY SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS CAN BE EXPECTED
AT THE ISLAND AIRPORTS.

&&

$$

AVIATION...APA

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 221134
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
634 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.AVIATION...
UNTIL 00Z/23RD...OTHER THAN A BRIEF MVFR CEILING MAINLY THIS
MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE AT THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON TERMINALS. CLOUD BASES WILL RANGE FROM 020-025...NEAR 100
AND 250. MOSTLY SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS CAN BE EXPECTED
AT THE ISLAND AIRPORTS.

&&

$$

AVIATION...APA

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 220944
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
444 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR AT THIS TIME ACROSS THE KEYS BUT MORE DENSE
CLOUD COVER IS FOUND TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE KEYS. AFTER AN
ACTIVE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE VERY
DISTANT SOUTHEASTERN GULF EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...KBYX RADAR
SHOWS ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF OUR
SERVICE AREA. EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE STRONGEST ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS...BUT ARE CURIOUSLY LIGHT TO GENTLE ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS. MIDDLE 70S TEMPERATURES ARE THE NORM ACROSS THE ISLANDS

.FORECAST...
VERY FEW CHANGES WERE REQUIRED FOR THE GRIDS OR TEXT FORECASTS
DURING THIS UPDATE CYCLE. SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS BEYOND
THE SHORT TERM OF THE FORECAST. TROPICAL EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE AND DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN
MOIST...NEAR 70. WHILE SEASONALLY MOIST CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT
THROUGHOUT THE DEPTH OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A SUBSIDENT HIGH IN PLACE
WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY AS A GENERAL TREND...WITH A FEW PERIODS
OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS SAME SUBSIDENT HIGH WILL ALSO BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR MOSTLY RAIN FREE CONDITIONS AS WELL...DESPITE
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS.

BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY...A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL INTENSIFY INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITIZED STATES AND TRANSIT TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES OR NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES BY EARLY THURSDAY. THIS LOW IS SET TO DRAG A COLD FRONT
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON ITS SOUTHEAST SIDE...BUT THE CHARACTER OF THIS
FRONT WHEN IT ARRIVES IN THE KEYS IS IN DOUBT. RAIN CHANCES WILL
REMAIN ON THE HIGH END OF THE CHANCE CATEGORY AHEAD OF THE FRONT DUE
TO MILD ISENTROPIC LIFT...BUT THUNDER WAS REMOVED THIS FORECAST CYCLE
FOR WEDNESDAY DUE TO EXCESSIVELY MOIST CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
PROFILE...AND A LACK OF EXPECTED DYNAMICAL LIFTING MECHANISMS. THE
MIDLEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM...AND 300MB JET STREAK ARE BOTH EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE SERVICE AREA. THUNDER MAY STILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG ITS IMMEDIATE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT...BUT EVEN
THAT FACT IS BECOMING IN DOUBT. TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY MODIFICATION
DUE TO THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE KEYS IS BECOMING MORE IN DOUBT
WITH EVERY SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN OF THE GFS AND ECMWF. BEYOND THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE...ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
IN ACROSS THE KEYS WHICH WILL GENERALLY SUPPRESS ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY
AND RAPIDLY SHIFT WINDS TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. NEAR NORMAL RAIN
CHANCES...TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND WIND SPEEDS ARE THEN EXPECTED
TO TAKE HOLD THROUGH DAY 7 OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH
TUESDAY. MODERATE WINDS WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE ACROSS THE WARMER
ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN...WHILE GENTLE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COOLER GULF AND BAYSIDE WATERS. BEYOND THAT
POINT...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN IN ADVANCE OF A CHRISTMAS
FRONTAL PASSAGE. RAPID SHIFTS AND INTENSITY CHANGES CAN BE EXPECTED
RIGHT ALONG THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT UNCERTAINTY OF THE TIMING OF
THIS OCCURRENCE WILL KEEP WORDING OF THE COASTAL WATERS TEXT FORECAST
INTENTIONALLY VAGUE. REGARDLESS OF THE SPECIFIC TIMING OF FRONTAL
WIND SHIFT...AT LEAST ONE OR TWO PERIODS OF CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS MAINLY FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
UNTIL 00Z/23RD...OTHER THAN A BRIEF MVFR CEILING MAINLY THIS
MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE AT THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON TERMINALS. CLOUD BASES WILL RANGE FROM 020-025...NEAR 100
AND 250. MOSTLY SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS CAN BE EXPECTED
AT THE ISLAND AIRPORTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1960...THE DAILY RECORD
LOW TEMPERATURE OF 51 DEGREES WAS RECORDED AT KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE
RECORDS IN KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........MSB
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....APA

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 220202
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
902 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
A SERIES OF LOWS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. ONE OF THESE LOWS IS DROPPING OFF THE FRONT RANGE
AND OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A WEAK...NEARLY STATIONARY TROUGH IS
STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
DUE TO THIS TROUGH WE CAN SEE SOME SHOWERS ON THE EXTREME NORTHERN
EDGE PF THE KEY WEST RADAR AT THIS HOUR. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 KNOTS AT THE C-MAN STATIONS ALONG THE REEF AND AT
THE SMITH SHOAL LIGHT...WHILE LONG KEY IS A BIT SUBDUED AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS. THE ISLAND TERMINALS ARE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS AT KEY
WEST...AND 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT THE MARATHON TERMINAL. THE EVENING
SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW THE INCREASING TREND IN MOISTURE LOCALLY
WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH GOOD VEERING IN A SHALLOW
LAYER BETWEEN 900 AND 800 MB...AND GOOD EVACUATION ALOFT.

.FORECAST...
THE LOWS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC COAST AND INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST WILL BE THE NEXT FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE KEYS AREA. A FRONT
WILL ARRIVE NEAR THE KEYS TUESDAY NIGHT...THEREAFTER THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH THE ECMWF PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND THE GFS STALLING THE FRONT FOR A FEW DAY
LONGER WHEN A SHORT WAVE TROUGH FINALLY MOVES THE TROUGH THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY MORNING. WE WILL WATCH THE GUIDANCE AND ANALYSIS FOR
ANOTHER SEVERAL RUNS BEFORE COMING TO A CONSENSUS. OTHERWISE THERE
WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES ARE EXPECTED WITH NO ADVISORY OR
CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT BREEZES TO REMAIN OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE AND VEER
AROUND TO THE SOUTH...THEN SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH TONIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS...
BASED AT AROUND 2000 FEET...ARE LIKELY AT EYW AND MTH MONDAY MORNING
INTO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15
TO 20 KNOTS FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 3000 FEET WILL
DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1901...THE LOW
TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST WAS 50 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD
FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON DECEMBER 21ST...A
RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 113 YEARS LATER. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT
KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BS
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 220202
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
902 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
A SERIES OF LOWS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. ONE OF THESE LOWS IS DROPPING OFF THE FRONT RANGE
AND OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A WEAK...NEARLY STATIONARY TROUGH IS
STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
DUE TO THIS TROUGH WE CAN SEE SOME SHOWERS ON THE EXTREME NORTHERN
EDGE PF THE KEY WEST RADAR AT THIS HOUR. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 KNOTS AT THE C-MAN STATIONS ALONG THE REEF AND AT
THE SMITH SHOAL LIGHT...WHILE LONG KEY IS A BIT SUBDUED AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS. THE ISLAND TERMINALS ARE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS AT KEY
WEST...AND 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT THE MARATHON TERMINAL. THE EVENING
SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW THE INCREASING TREND IN MOISTURE LOCALLY
WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH GOOD VEERING IN A SHALLOW
LAYER BETWEEN 900 AND 800 MB...AND GOOD EVACUATION ALOFT.

.FORECAST...
THE LOWS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC COAST AND INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST WILL BE THE NEXT FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE KEYS AREA. A FRONT
WILL ARRIVE NEAR THE KEYS TUESDAY NIGHT...THEREAFTER THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH THE ECMWF PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND THE GFS STALLING THE FRONT FOR A FEW DAY
LONGER WHEN A SHORT WAVE TROUGH FINALLY MOVES THE TROUGH THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY MORNING. WE WILL WATCH THE GUIDANCE AND ANALYSIS FOR
ANOTHER SEVERAL RUNS BEFORE COMING TO A CONSENSUS. OTHERWISE THERE
WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES ARE EXPECTED WITH NO ADVISORY OR
CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT BREEZES TO REMAIN OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE AND VEER
AROUND TO THE SOUTH...THEN SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH TONIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS...
BASED AT AROUND 2000 FEET...ARE LIKELY AT EYW AND MTH MONDAY MORNING
INTO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15
TO 20 KNOTS FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 3000 FEET WILL
DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1901...THE LOW
TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST WAS 50 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD
FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON DECEMBER 21ST...A
RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 113 YEARS LATER. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT
KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BS
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 220202
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
902 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
A SERIES OF LOWS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. ONE OF THESE LOWS IS DROPPING OFF THE FRONT RANGE
AND OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A WEAK...NEARLY STATIONARY TROUGH IS
STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
DUE TO THIS TROUGH WE CAN SEE SOME SHOWERS ON THE EXTREME NORTHERN
EDGE PF THE KEY WEST RADAR AT THIS HOUR. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 KNOTS AT THE C-MAN STATIONS ALONG THE REEF AND AT
THE SMITH SHOAL LIGHT...WHILE LONG KEY IS A BIT SUBDUED AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS. THE ISLAND TERMINALS ARE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS AT KEY
WEST...AND 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT THE MARATHON TERMINAL. THE EVENING
SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW THE INCREASING TREND IN MOISTURE LOCALLY
WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH GOOD VEERING IN A SHALLOW
LAYER BETWEEN 900 AND 800 MB...AND GOOD EVACUATION ALOFT.

.FORECAST...
THE LOWS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC COAST AND INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST WILL BE THE NEXT FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE KEYS AREA. A FRONT
WILL ARRIVE NEAR THE KEYS TUESDAY NIGHT...THEREAFTER THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH THE ECMWF PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND THE GFS STALLING THE FRONT FOR A FEW DAY
LONGER WHEN A SHORT WAVE TROUGH FINALLY MOVES THE TROUGH THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY MORNING. WE WILL WATCH THE GUIDANCE AND ANALYSIS FOR
ANOTHER SEVERAL RUNS BEFORE COMING TO A CONSENSUS. OTHERWISE THERE
WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES ARE EXPECTED WITH NO ADVISORY OR
CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT BREEZES TO REMAIN OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE AND VEER
AROUND TO THE SOUTH...THEN SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH TONIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS...
BASED AT AROUND 2000 FEET...ARE LIKELY AT EYW AND MTH MONDAY MORNING
INTO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15
TO 20 KNOTS FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 3000 FEET WILL
DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1901...THE LOW
TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST WAS 50 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD
FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON DECEMBER 21ST...A
RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 113 YEARS LATER. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT
KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BS
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 220202
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
902 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
A SERIES OF LOWS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. ONE OF THESE LOWS IS DROPPING OFF THE FRONT RANGE
AND OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A WEAK...NEARLY STATIONARY TROUGH IS
STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
DUE TO THIS TROUGH WE CAN SEE SOME SHOWERS ON THE EXTREME NORTHERN
EDGE PF THE KEY WEST RADAR AT THIS HOUR. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 KNOTS AT THE C-MAN STATIONS ALONG THE REEF AND AT
THE SMITH SHOAL LIGHT...WHILE LONG KEY IS A BIT SUBDUED AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS. THE ISLAND TERMINALS ARE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS AT KEY
WEST...AND 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT THE MARATHON TERMINAL. THE EVENING
SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW THE INCREASING TREND IN MOISTURE LOCALLY
WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH GOOD VEERING IN A SHALLOW
LAYER BETWEEN 900 AND 800 MB...AND GOOD EVACUATION ALOFT.

.FORECAST...
THE LOWS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC COAST AND INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST WILL BE THE NEXT FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE KEYS AREA. A FRONT
WILL ARRIVE NEAR THE KEYS TUESDAY NIGHT...THEREAFTER THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH THE ECMWF PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND THE GFS STALLING THE FRONT FOR A FEW DAY
LONGER WHEN A SHORT WAVE TROUGH FINALLY MOVES THE TROUGH THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY MORNING. WE WILL WATCH THE GUIDANCE AND ANALYSIS FOR
ANOTHER SEVERAL RUNS BEFORE COMING TO A CONSENSUS. OTHERWISE THERE
WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES ARE EXPECTED WITH NO ADVISORY OR
CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT BREEZES TO REMAIN OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE AND VEER
AROUND TO THE SOUTH...THEN SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH TONIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS...
BASED AT AROUND 2000 FEET...ARE LIKELY AT EYW AND MTH MONDAY MORNING
INTO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15
TO 20 KNOTS FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 3000 FEET WILL
DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1901...THE LOW
TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST WAS 50 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD
FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON DECEMBER 21ST...A
RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 113 YEARS LATER. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT
KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BS
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 211950
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
250 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS HAS PERSISTED FOR MOST OF THE
DAY THANKS TO CLOUDS STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD FROM SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND EXTREME SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. HOWEVER...AIR TEMPERATURES WERE ABLE TO REACH 80F IN MANY
ISLAND COMMUNITIES THANKS TO THE WARM SOUTHEAST BREEZES. DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY ARE NEAR 70F...WITH A BORDERLINE MARITIME
TROPICAL AIR MASS RESIDING. RADAR SCANS INDICATED A FEW WEAK SHOWERS
EARLIER. HOWEVER...CURRENT SCANS ARE CLEAR OF PRECIPITATION
ECHOES.

THE MAIN SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORECAST FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR THIS
PACKAGE IS A POSSIBLE COLD FRONT AROUND THE CHRISTMAS EVE TIME FRAME.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS BELOW AVERAGE REGARDING FRONTAL
TIMING...ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFTS AND SURGES...PRECIPITATION
STRUCTURES...CLOUDINESS...AND OF COURSE AIR TEMPERATURE. AT THIS
STAGE...BEST CHANCE FOR PRE-FRONTAL RAIN...THUNDER...AND SQUALLS
WOULD BE EITHER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...WITH A SHALLOW COLD
THERMAL ADVECTION EVENT THEREAFTER. HOWEVER...TIMING LIKELY WILL
CHANGE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE TO MODERATE MAINLY SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH A
POTENTIAL SURGE IN WIND SPEED TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS STILL ARE LIKELY
TO BOX AROUND THE COMPASS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW
AT THE MOMENT REGARDING BOTH WIND SPEED VALUES AND TIMING OF WIND
SHIFTS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY EITHER WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME ZONES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL AT THE EYW AND MTH TERMINALS. TEMPORARILY BKN CLOUD
LAYERS WILL HAVE BASES RANGING FROM 025-030...080-100 AND 250.
CROSSWIND IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED FROM MOSTLY SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR
10 KNOTS.
&&

.CLIMATE...DECEMBER 21ST...ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER
HISTORY...IN 1901...THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 50 DEGREES
WAS RECORDED AT KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN KEY WEST DATE BACK
TO 1872.
&&

.PRELIM POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  72  79  72  81 / 10 10 10 10
MARATHON  72  80  72  81 / 10 10 10 10
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....CLR
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 211950
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
250 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS HAS PERSISTED FOR MOST OF THE
DAY THANKS TO CLOUDS STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD FROM SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND EXTREME SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. HOWEVER...AIR TEMPERATURES WERE ABLE TO REACH 80F IN MANY
ISLAND COMMUNITIES THANKS TO THE WARM SOUTHEAST BREEZES. DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY ARE NEAR 70F...WITH A BORDERLINE MARITIME
TROPICAL AIR MASS RESIDING. RADAR SCANS INDICATED A FEW WEAK SHOWERS
EARLIER. HOWEVER...CURRENT SCANS ARE CLEAR OF PRECIPITATION
ECHOES.

THE MAIN SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORECAST FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR THIS
PACKAGE IS A POSSIBLE COLD FRONT AROUND THE CHRISTMAS EVE TIME FRAME.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS BELOW AVERAGE REGARDING FRONTAL
TIMING...ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFTS AND SURGES...PRECIPITATION
STRUCTURES...CLOUDINESS...AND OF COURSE AIR TEMPERATURE. AT THIS
STAGE...BEST CHANCE FOR PRE-FRONTAL RAIN...THUNDER...AND SQUALLS
WOULD BE EITHER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...WITH A SHALLOW COLD
THERMAL ADVECTION EVENT THEREAFTER. HOWEVER...TIMING LIKELY WILL
CHANGE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE TO MODERATE MAINLY SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH A
POTENTIAL SURGE IN WIND SPEED TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS STILL ARE LIKELY
TO BOX AROUND THE COMPASS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW
AT THE MOMENT REGARDING BOTH WIND SPEED VALUES AND TIMING OF WIND
SHIFTS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY EITHER WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME ZONES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL AT THE EYW AND MTH TERMINALS. TEMPORARILY BKN CLOUD
LAYERS WILL HAVE BASES RANGING FROM 025-030...080-100 AND 250.
CROSSWIND IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED FROM MOSTLY SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR
10 KNOTS.
&&

.CLIMATE...DECEMBER 21ST...ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER
HISTORY...IN 1901...THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 50 DEGREES
WAS RECORDED AT KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN KEY WEST DATE BACK
TO 1872.
&&

.PRELIM POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  72  79  72  81 / 10 10 10 10
MARATHON  72  80  72  81 / 10 10 10 10
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....CLR
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 211950
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
250 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS HAS PERSISTED FOR MOST OF THE
DAY THANKS TO CLOUDS STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD FROM SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND EXTREME SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. HOWEVER...AIR TEMPERATURES WERE ABLE TO REACH 80F IN MANY
ISLAND COMMUNITIES THANKS TO THE WARM SOUTHEAST BREEZES. DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY ARE NEAR 70F...WITH A BORDERLINE MARITIME
TROPICAL AIR MASS RESIDING. RADAR SCANS INDICATED A FEW WEAK SHOWERS
EARLIER. HOWEVER...CURRENT SCANS ARE CLEAR OF PRECIPITATION
ECHOES.

THE MAIN SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORECAST FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR THIS
PACKAGE IS A POSSIBLE COLD FRONT AROUND THE CHRISTMAS EVE TIME FRAME.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS BELOW AVERAGE REGARDING FRONTAL
TIMING...ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFTS AND SURGES...PRECIPITATION
STRUCTURES...CLOUDINESS...AND OF COURSE AIR TEMPERATURE. AT THIS
STAGE...BEST CHANCE FOR PRE-FRONTAL RAIN...THUNDER...AND SQUALLS
WOULD BE EITHER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...WITH A SHALLOW COLD
THERMAL ADVECTION EVENT THEREAFTER. HOWEVER...TIMING LIKELY WILL
CHANGE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE TO MODERATE MAINLY SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH A
POTENTIAL SURGE IN WIND SPEED TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS STILL ARE LIKELY
TO BOX AROUND THE COMPASS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW
AT THE MOMENT REGARDING BOTH WIND SPEED VALUES AND TIMING OF WIND
SHIFTS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY EITHER WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME ZONES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL AT THE EYW AND MTH TERMINALS. TEMPORARILY BKN CLOUD
LAYERS WILL HAVE BASES RANGING FROM 025-030...080-100 AND 250.
CROSSWIND IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED FROM MOSTLY SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR
10 KNOTS.
&&

.CLIMATE...DECEMBER 21ST...ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER
HISTORY...IN 1901...THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 50 DEGREES
WAS RECORDED AT KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN KEY WEST DATE BACK
TO 1872.
&&

.PRELIM POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  72  79  72  81 / 10 10 10 10
MARATHON  72  80  72  81 / 10 10 10 10
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....CLR
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 211950
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
250 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS HAS PERSISTED FOR MOST OF THE
DAY THANKS TO CLOUDS STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD FROM SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND EXTREME SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. HOWEVER...AIR TEMPERATURES WERE ABLE TO REACH 80F IN MANY
ISLAND COMMUNITIES THANKS TO THE WARM SOUTHEAST BREEZES. DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY ARE NEAR 70F...WITH A BORDERLINE MARITIME
TROPICAL AIR MASS RESIDING. RADAR SCANS INDICATED A FEW WEAK SHOWERS
EARLIER. HOWEVER...CURRENT SCANS ARE CLEAR OF PRECIPITATION
ECHOES.

THE MAIN SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORECAST FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR THIS
PACKAGE IS A POSSIBLE COLD FRONT AROUND THE CHRISTMAS EVE TIME FRAME.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS BELOW AVERAGE REGARDING FRONTAL
TIMING...ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFTS AND SURGES...PRECIPITATION
STRUCTURES...CLOUDINESS...AND OF COURSE AIR TEMPERATURE. AT THIS
STAGE...BEST CHANCE FOR PRE-FRONTAL RAIN...THUNDER...AND SQUALLS
WOULD BE EITHER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...WITH A SHALLOW COLD
THERMAL ADVECTION EVENT THEREAFTER. HOWEVER...TIMING LIKELY WILL
CHANGE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE TO MODERATE MAINLY SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH A
POTENTIAL SURGE IN WIND SPEED TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS STILL ARE LIKELY
TO BOX AROUND THE COMPASS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW
AT THE MOMENT REGARDING BOTH WIND SPEED VALUES AND TIMING OF WIND
SHIFTS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY EITHER WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME ZONES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL AT THE EYW AND MTH TERMINALS. TEMPORARILY BKN CLOUD
LAYERS WILL HAVE BASES RANGING FROM 025-030...080-100 AND 250.
CROSSWIND IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED FROM MOSTLY SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR
10 KNOTS.
&&

.CLIMATE...DECEMBER 21ST...ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER
HISTORY...IN 1901...THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 50 DEGREES
WAS RECORDED AT KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN KEY WEST DATE BACK
TO 1872.
&&

.PRELIM POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  72  79  72  81 / 10 10 10 10
MARATHON  72  80  72  81 / 10 10 10 10
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....CLR
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST








000
FXUS62 KKEY 211513
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1013 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A REVIEW OF UPPER-AIR DATA OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS REVEALS CONTINUED
WARMING AND MOISTENING OF THE LOW LEVELS...AND THE KEY WEST MORNING
RAWINSONDE OBSERVATION...MODIFIED FOR A SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND
DEWPOINT OF 78F/70F INDICATES A WEAKLY UNSTABLE STRATIFICATION WITH
MODERATE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ENERGY. LATEST KEY WEST RADAR SCANS
ARE SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN OVER THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE CONSIDERABLE
HIGH CLOUDINESS AS EFFLUENT FROM A PERSISTENT MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL STREAMS NORTHEASTWARD IN FAST FLOW
ALOFT.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AIR TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT NEAR 80F WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST BREEZES...AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. FEW ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE NEEDED TO THE FORECASTS AT
THIS TIME.
&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS OF
MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL BE FOUND AS WELL.
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL AT THE EYW AND MTH TERMINALS. CLOUD BASES WILL
RANGE FROM 020-025...080-100 AND 250. CROSSWIND IMPACTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED WITH MOSTLY SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS.
&&

.CLIMATE...DECEMBER 21ST...ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER
HISTORY...IN 1901...THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 50 DEGREES
WAS RECORDED AT KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN KEY WEST DATE BACK
TO 1872.
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....CLR
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST







000
FXUS62 KKEY 211513
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1013 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A REVIEW OF UPPER-AIR DATA OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS REVEALS CONTINUED
WARMING AND MOISTENING OF THE LOW LEVELS...AND THE KEY WEST MORNING
RAWINSONDE OBSERVATION...MODIFIED FOR A SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND
DEWPOINT OF 78F/70F INDICATES A WEAKLY UNSTABLE STRATIFICATION WITH
MODERATE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ENERGY. LATEST KEY WEST RADAR SCANS
ARE SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN OVER THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE CONSIDERABLE
HIGH CLOUDINESS AS EFFLUENT FROM A PERSISTENT MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL STREAMS NORTHEASTWARD IN FAST FLOW
ALOFT.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AIR TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT NEAR 80F WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST BREEZES...AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. FEW ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE NEEDED TO THE FORECASTS AT
THIS TIME.
&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS OF
MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL BE FOUND AS WELL.
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL AT THE EYW AND MTH TERMINALS. CLOUD BASES WILL
RANGE FROM 020-025...080-100 AND 250. CROSSWIND IMPACTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED WITH MOSTLY SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS.
&&

.CLIMATE...DECEMBER 21ST...ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER
HISTORY...IN 1901...THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 50 DEGREES
WAS RECORDED AT KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN KEY WEST DATE BACK
TO 1872.
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....CLR
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 211144
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
644 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.AVIATION...
UNTIL 00Z/22ND...OUTSIDE OF A POSSIBLE...BRIEF MVFR CEILING ENCOUNTER...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS. WITH
THAT SAID...CLOUD BASES WILL RANGE FROM 020-025...100-150 AND 250.
MOSTLY EAST WINDS OF LESS THAN 10 KNOTS WILL BECOME MOSTLY SOUTHEAST
AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS BY MID TO LATE MORNING...AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
BALANCE OF THE DAY.

&&

$$

AVIATION...APA

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 211144
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
644 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.AVIATION...
UNTIL 00Z/22ND...OUTSIDE OF A POSSIBLE...BRIEF MVFR CEILING ENCOUNTER...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS. WITH
THAT SAID...CLOUD BASES WILL RANGE FROM 020-025...100-150 AND 250.
MOSTLY EAST WINDS OF LESS THAN 10 KNOTS WILL BECOME MOSTLY SOUTHEAST
AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS BY MID TO LATE MORNING...AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
BALANCE OF THE DAY.

&&

$$

AVIATION...APA

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 211020
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
520 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
A 1027MB SURFACE HIGH REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES...AND IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN OHIO
VALLEY. ALONG ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY...A STATIONARY FRONT IS SERVING
AS THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA. CLOSER TO HOME...A 1015 SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER HAS RECENTLY SHOWN UP IN MODEL INITIALIZATION IN THE VICINITY
OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...BUT PROXIMAL OBSERVING STATIONS ARE SPARSE
IN THAT REGION TO SUPPORT THIS ANALYSIS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN INTERMITTENT IN THAT AREA FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS OR
SO...WHICH DOES LEND CREDENCE TO THE MODEL ANALYSIS. REGARDLESS OF
ITS ACTUAL INTENSITY...IT IS A SAFE BET THAT AT LEAST A MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE EXISTS IN THAT REGION...AS OUR INTERMITTENT DENSE
MIDLEVEL CLOUD COVER IS EMANATING UPSTREAM OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
THAT REGION. THE MOST DENSE OF THIS CLOUD COVER HAS ACTUALLY HAD BEEN
CREATING A PASSING BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE UPPER LEVEL SHOWERS
NORTH AND WEST OF THE DRY TORTUGAS OVERNIGHT. WITH THIS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST...AND A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...SURFACE WINDS ARE GENERALLY EAST SOUTHEASTERLY AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS SOUTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN AND 5 TO 10 KNOTS ACROSS THE ISLAND
CHAIN AND POINTS NORTH.

.FORECAST...ALL SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE BEARISH ON THE
OUTLOOK FOR THIS GULF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AS IT GRADUALLY MOVES
NORTHWARD AND BECOMES A DIFFUSE TROUGH IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...AND RAPIDLY WASHES OUT ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF A DOMINANT
GREAT PLAINS LOW BY EARLY MONDAY. IT WILL BE CURIOUS TO SEE HOW A
LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT REGION ON ITS EASTERN SIDE WILL IMPACT RAIN
CHANCES. WHILE SHORT TERM MOS GUIDANCE MAINTAIN MINIMAL POPS...
MOIST CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE...AND PERIODIC POCKETS OF
ISOTROPIC LIFT WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR OUR
FORECAST GRIDS AND TEXT PRODUCTS THROUGH THE EARLY WORK WEEK. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH TUESDAY AS
WELL.

A FRONTAL PASSAGE STILL REMAINS A SAFE BET ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS
ON WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY..BUT GLOBAL DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE YET
TO COME INTO ANY SEMBLANCE OF CONSISTENCY. MAINTAINED THE GENERAL
FRAMEWORK FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLES THIS TIME AROUND... WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH-END CHANCE POPS ALONG ITS LEADING EDGE...AND A
BRIEF BOUT OF BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A DELAYED FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
CYCLE...WHICH MEANS TEMPERATURES...POPS...AND WINDS FOR CHRISTMAS
EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE HIGHLY SUSPECT UNTIL GREATER CLARITY
BECOMES EVIDENT IN MODEL SOLUTIONS. A RAPID TRANSITION TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IS A CONSISTENT FEATURE AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS
FRONT HOWEVER...AS A DIFFUSE HIGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATE IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL MEAN THAT A PROLONGED NORTHERLY
BLOW AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS NOT LIKELY...AND NEAR NORMAL
CONDITIONS SHOULD RESUME BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS...AND BENIGN SEAS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
THEREAFTER...GRADUALLY CLOCKING WINDS IN ADVANCE OF AN CHRISTMAS
EVE/CHRISTMAS DAY FRONT WILL VARY IN INTENSITY EACH DAY....MAINLY ON
ACCOUNT OF A SERIES OF LOW LEVEL SHORT WAVES THAT ARE EXPECTED IN THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A BRIEF BOUT OF SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT PROLONGED CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS ARE
NOT EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE.

&&

.AVIATION...
UNTIL 00Z/22ND...OUTSIDE OF A BRIEF MVFR CEILING ENCOUNTER...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS. WITH
THAT SAID...CLOUD BASES WILL RANGE FROM 020-025...080-100 AND 250.
MOSTLY EAST WINDS OF LESS THAN 10 KNOTS WILL BECOME MOSTLY SOUTHEAST
AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS BY MID TO LATE MORNING...AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
BALANCE OF THE DAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1901...THE DAILY RECORD
LOW TEMPERATURE OF 50 DEGREES WAS RECORDED AT KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE
RECORDS IN KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........MSB
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....APA

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 211020
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
520 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
A 1027MB SURFACE HIGH REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES...AND IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN OHIO
VALLEY. ALONG ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY...A STATIONARY FRONT IS SERVING
AS THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA. CLOSER TO HOME...A 1015 SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER HAS RECENTLY SHOWN UP IN MODEL INITIALIZATION IN THE VICINITY
OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...BUT PROXIMAL OBSERVING STATIONS ARE SPARSE
IN THAT REGION TO SUPPORT THIS ANALYSIS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN INTERMITTENT IN THAT AREA FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS OR
SO...WHICH DOES LEND CREDENCE TO THE MODEL ANALYSIS. REGARDLESS OF
ITS ACTUAL INTENSITY...IT IS A SAFE BET THAT AT LEAST A MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE EXISTS IN THAT REGION...AS OUR INTERMITTENT DENSE
MIDLEVEL CLOUD COVER IS EMANATING UPSTREAM OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
THAT REGION. THE MOST DENSE OF THIS CLOUD COVER HAS ACTUALLY HAD BEEN
CREATING A PASSING BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE UPPER LEVEL SHOWERS
NORTH AND WEST OF THE DRY TORTUGAS OVERNIGHT. WITH THIS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST...AND A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...SURFACE WINDS ARE GENERALLY EAST SOUTHEASTERLY AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS SOUTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN AND 5 TO 10 KNOTS ACROSS THE ISLAND
CHAIN AND POINTS NORTH.

.FORECAST...ALL SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE BEARISH ON THE
OUTLOOK FOR THIS GULF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AS IT GRADUALLY MOVES
NORTHWARD AND BECOMES A DIFFUSE TROUGH IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...AND RAPIDLY WASHES OUT ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF A DOMINANT
GREAT PLAINS LOW BY EARLY MONDAY. IT WILL BE CURIOUS TO SEE HOW A
LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT REGION ON ITS EASTERN SIDE WILL IMPACT RAIN
CHANCES. WHILE SHORT TERM MOS GUIDANCE MAINTAIN MINIMAL POPS...
MOIST CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE...AND PERIODIC POCKETS OF
ISOTROPIC LIFT WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR OUR
FORECAST GRIDS AND TEXT PRODUCTS THROUGH THE EARLY WORK WEEK. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH TUESDAY AS
WELL.

A FRONTAL PASSAGE STILL REMAINS A SAFE BET ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS
ON WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY..BUT GLOBAL DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE YET
TO COME INTO ANY SEMBLANCE OF CONSISTENCY. MAINTAINED THE GENERAL
FRAMEWORK FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLES THIS TIME AROUND... WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH-END CHANCE POPS ALONG ITS LEADING EDGE...AND A
BRIEF BOUT OF BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A DELAYED FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
CYCLE...WHICH MEANS TEMPERATURES...POPS...AND WINDS FOR CHRISTMAS
EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE HIGHLY SUSPECT UNTIL GREATER CLARITY
BECOMES EVIDENT IN MODEL SOLUTIONS. A RAPID TRANSITION TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IS A CONSISTENT FEATURE AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS
FRONT HOWEVER...AS A DIFFUSE HIGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATE IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL MEAN THAT A PROLONGED NORTHERLY
BLOW AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS NOT LIKELY...AND NEAR NORMAL
CONDITIONS SHOULD RESUME BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS...AND BENIGN SEAS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
THEREAFTER...GRADUALLY CLOCKING WINDS IN ADVANCE OF AN CHRISTMAS
EVE/CHRISTMAS DAY FRONT WILL VARY IN INTENSITY EACH DAY....MAINLY ON
ACCOUNT OF A SERIES OF LOW LEVEL SHORT WAVES THAT ARE EXPECTED IN THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A BRIEF BOUT OF SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT PROLONGED CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS ARE
NOT EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE.

&&

.AVIATION...
UNTIL 00Z/22ND...OUTSIDE OF A BRIEF MVFR CEILING ENCOUNTER...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS. WITH
THAT SAID...CLOUD BASES WILL RANGE FROM 020-025...080-100 AND 250.
MOSTLY EAST WINDS OF LESS THAN 10 KNOTS WILL BECOME MOSTLY SOUTHEAST
AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS BY MID TO LATE MORNING...AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
BALANCE OF THE DAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1901...THE DAILY RECORD
LOW TEMPERATURE OF 50 DEGREES WAS RECORDED AT KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE
RECORDS IN KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........MSB
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....APA

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 211020
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
520 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
A 1027MB SURFACE HIGH REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES...AND IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN OHIO
VALLEY. ALONG ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY...A STATIONARY FRONT IS SERVING
AS THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA. CLOSER TO HOME...A 1015 SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER HAS RECENTLY SHOWN UP IN MODEL INITIALIZATION IN THE VICINITY
OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...BUT PROXIMAL OBSERVING STATIONS ARE SPARSE
IN THAT REGION TO SUPPORT THIS ANALYSIS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN INTERMITTENT IN THAT AREA FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS OR
SO...WHICH DOES LEND CREDENCE TO THE MODEL ANALYSIS. REGARDLESS OF
ITS ACTUAL INTENSITY...IT IS A SAFE BET THAT AT LEAST A MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE EXISTS IN THAT REGION...AS OUR INTERMITTENT DENSE
MIDLEVEL CLOUD COVER IS EMANATING UPSTREAM OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
THAT REGION. THE MOST DENSE OF THIS CLOUD COVER HAS ACTUALLY HAD BEEN
CREATING A PASSING BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE UPPER LEVEL SHOWERS
NORTH AND WEST OF THE DRY TORTUGAS OVERNIGHT. WITH THIS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST...AND A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...SURFACE WINDS ARE GENERALLY EAST SOUTHEASTERLY AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS SOUTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN AND 5 TO 10 KNOTS ACROSS THE ISLAND
CHAIN AND POINTS NORTH.

.FORECAST...ALL SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE BEARISH ON THE
OUTLOOK FOR THIS GULF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AS IT GRADUALLY MOVES
NORTHWARD AND BECOMES A DIFFUSE TROUGH IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...AND RAPIDLY WASHES OUT ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF A DOMINANT
GREAT PLAINS LOW BY EARLY MONDAY. IT WILL BE CURIOUS TO SEE HOW A
LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT REGION ON ITS EASTERN SIDE WILL IMPACT RAIN
CHANCES. WHILE SHORT TERM MOS GUIDANCE MAINTAIN MINIMAL POPS...
MOIST CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE...AND PERIODIC POCKETS OF
ISOTROPIC LIFT WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR OUR
FORECAST GRIDS AND TEXT PRODUCTS THROUGH THE EARLY WORK WEEK. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH TUESDAY AS
WELL.

A FRONTAL PASSAGE STILL REMAINS A SAFE BET ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS
ON WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY..BUT GLOBAL DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE YET
TO COME INTO ANY SEMBLANCE OF CONSISTENCY. MAINTAINED THE GENERAL
FRAMEWORK FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLES THIS TIME AROUND... WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH-END CHANCE POPS ALONG ITS LEADING EDGE...AND A
BRIEF BOUT OF BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A DELAYED FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
CYCLE...WHICH MEANS TEMPERATURES...POPS...AND WINDS FOR CHRISTMAS
EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE HIGHLY SUSPECT UNTIL GREATER CLARITY
BECOMES EVIDENT IN MODEL SOLUTIONS. A RAPID TRANSITION TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IS A CONSISTENT FEATURE AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS
FRONT HOWEVER...AS A DIFFUSE HIGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATE IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL MEAN THAT A PROLONGED NORTHERLY
BLOW AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS NOT LIKELY...AND NEAR NORMAL
CONDITIONS SHOULD RESUME BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS...AND BENIGN SEAS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
THEREAFTER...GRADUALLY CLOCKING WINDS IN ADVANCE OF AN CHRISTMAS
EVE/CHRISTMAS DAY FRONT WILL VARY IN INTENSITY EACH DAY....MAINLY ON
ACCOUNT OF A SERIES OF LOW LEVEL SHORT WAVES THAT ARE EXPECTED IN THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A BRIEF BOUT OF SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT PROLONGED CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS ARE
NOT EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE.

&&

.AVIATION...
UNTIL 00Z/22ND...OUTSIDE OF A BRIEF MVFR CEILING ENCOUNTER...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS. WITH
THAT SAID...CLOUD BASES WILL RANGE FROM 020-025...080-100 AND 250.
MOSTLY EAST WINDS OF LESS THAN 10 KNOTS WILL BECOME MOSTLY SOUTHEAST
AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS BY MID TO LATE MORNING...AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
BALANCE OF THE DAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1901...THE DAILY RECORD
LOW TEMPERATURE OF 50 DEGREES WAS RECORDED AT KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE
RECORDS IN KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........MSB
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....APA

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 211020
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
520 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
A 1027MB SURFACE HIGH REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES...AND IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN OHIO
VALLEY. ALONG ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY...A STATIONARY FRONT IS SERVING
AS THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA. CLOSER TO HOME...A 1015 SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER HAS RECENTLY SHOWN UP IN MODEL INITIALIZATION IN THE VICINITY
OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...BUT PROXIMAL OBSERVING STATIONS ARE SPARSE
IN THAT REGION TO SUPPORT THIS ANALYSIS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN INTERMITTENT IN THAT AREA FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS OR
SO...WHICH DOES LEND CREDENCE TO THE MODEL ANALYSIS. REGARDLESS OF
ITS ACTUAL INTENSITY...IT IS A SAFE BET THAT AT LEAST A MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE EXISTS IN THAT REGION...AS OUR INTERMITTENT DENSE
MIDLEVEL CLOUD COVER IS EMANATING UPSTREAM OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
THAT REGION. THE MOST DENSE OF THIS CLOUD COVER HAS ACTUALLY HAD BEEN
CREATING A PASSING BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE UPPER LEVEL SHOWERS
NORTH AND WEST OF THE DRY TORTUGAS OVERNIGHT. WITH THIS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST...AND A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...SURFACE WINDS ARE GENERALLY EAST SOUTHEASTERLY AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS SOUTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN AND 5 TO 10 KNOTS ACROSS THE ISLAND
CHAIN AND POINTS NORTH.

.FORECAST...ALL SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE BEARISH ON THE
OUTLOOK FOR THIS GULF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AS IT GRADUALLY MOVES
NORTHWARD AND BECOMES A DIFFUSE TROUGH IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...AND RAPIDLY WASHES OUT ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF A DOMINANT
GREAT PLAINS LOW BY EARLY MONDAY. IT WILL BE CURIOUS TO SEE HOW A
LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT REGION ON ITS EASTERN SIDE WILL IMPACT RAIN
CHANCES. WHILE SHORT TERM MOS GUIDANCE MAINTAIN MINIMAL POPS...
MOIST CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE...AND PERIODIC POCKETS OF
ISOTROPIC LIFT WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR OUR
FORECAST GRIDS AND TEXT PRODUCTS THROUGH THE EARLY WORK WEEK. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH TUESDAY AS
WELL.

A FRONTAL PASSAGE STILL REMAINS A SAFE BET ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS
ON WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY..BUT GLOBAL DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE YET
TO COME INTO ANY SEMBLANCE OF CONSISTENCY. MAINTAINED THE GENERAL
FRAMEWORK FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLES THIS TIME AROUND... WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH-END CHANCE POPS ALONG ITS LEADING EDGE...AND A
BRIEF BOUT OF BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A DELAYED FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
CYCLE...WHICH MEANS TEMPERATURES...POPS...AND WINDS FOR CHRISTMAS
EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE HIGHLY SUSPECT UNTIL GREATER CLARITY
BECOMES EVIDENT IN MODEL SOLUTIONS. A RAPID TRANSITION TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IS A CONSISTENT FEATURE AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS
FRONT HOWEVER...AS A DIFFUSE HIGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATE IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL MEAN THAT A PROLONGED NORTHERLY
BLOW AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS NOT LIKELY...AND NEAR NORMAL
CONDITIONS SHOULD RESUME BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS...AND BENIGN SEAS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
THEREAFTER...GRADUALLY CLOCKING WINDS IN ADVANCE OF AN CHRISTMAS
EVE/CHRISTMAS DAY FRONT WILL VARY IN INTENSITY EACH DAY....MAINLY ON
ACCOUNT OF A SERIES OF LOW LEVEL SHORT WAVES THAT ARE EXPECTED IN THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A BRIEF BOUT OF SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT PROLONGED CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS ARE
NOT EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE.

&&

.AVIATION...
UNTIL 00Z/22ND...OUTSIDE OF A BRIEF MVFR CEILING ENCOUNTER...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS. WITH
THAT SAID...CLOUD BASES WILL RANGE FROM 020-025...080-100 AND 250.
MOSTLY EAST WINDS OF LESS THAN 10 KNOTS WILL BECOME MOSTLY SOUTHEAST
AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS BY MID TO LATE MORNING...AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
BALANCE OF THE DAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1901...THE DAILY RECORD
LOW TEMPERATURE OF 50 DEGREES WAS RECORDED AT KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE
RECORDS IN KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........MSB
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....APA

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 210218
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
920 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES. SKIES OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN
ARE VARIABLY CLOUDY. WINDS OVER LAND ARE EAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. C-MAN
WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE EAST TO SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 KNOTS.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

.SHORT TERM (OVERNIGHT)...
IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT. IN THE
MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL EXTEND ACROSS CUBA TONIGHT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. THE 00Z KKEY
SOUNDING IS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AND QUITE MOIST FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUE JUST ABOVE ONE AND ONE
HALF OF AN INCH. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT. BY
SUNRISE SUNDAY...PWAT VALUES WILL BE JUST BELOW ONE AND THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH...WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF DECEMBER. DESPITE ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY AND ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT CONVECTION...LACK OF AN APPARENT
CONVECTIVE TRIGGER WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES
OF NEAR ZERO IN THE FLORIDA KEYS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ON ALL KEYS COASTAL
WATERS OVERNIGHT. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES EXPECTED
TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. SUSTAINED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE COASTAL WATERS
OF THE ATLANTIC AND OFFSHORE GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC AND OFFSHORE GULF OF MEXICO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ON
THE COASTAL WATERS OF FLORIDA BAY AND NEARSHORE GULF OF MEXICO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO SUSTAINED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ON THE COASTAL
WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC AND OFFSHORE GULF OF MEXICO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO SUSTAINED NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20
KNOTS. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS
THROUGH 21/12Z. THEREAFTER...POTENTIAL MVFR CEILINGS MAY DROP BELOW
2K FEET. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST LESS THAN 10
KNOTS...WHILE VEERING AROUND TO WEST TO NORTHWEST ABOVE 7K FEET.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1973...2.50 INCHES
OF RAIN FELL AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THIS SET THE DAILY
RECORD FOR MAXIMUM RAINFALL MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON DECEMBER 20TH...
A RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 41 YEARS LATER. RAINFALL RECORDS AT KEY
WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION/CLIMATE.............BWC

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 210218
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
920 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES. SKIES OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN
ARE VARIABLY CLOUDY. WINDS OVER LAND ARE EAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. C-MAN
WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE EAST TO SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 KNOTS.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

.SHORT TERM (OVERNIGHT)...
IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT. IN THE
MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL EXTEND ACROSS CUBA TONIGHT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. THE 00Z KKEY
SOUNDING IS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AND QUITE MOIST FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUE JUST ABOVE ONE AND ONE
HALF OF AN INCH. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT. BY
SUNRISE SUNDAY...PWAT VALUES WILL BE JUST BELOW ONE AND THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH...WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF DECEMBER. DESPITE ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY AND ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT CONVECTION...LACK OF AN APPARENT
CONVECTIVE TRIGGER WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES
OF NEAR ZERO IN THE FLORIDA KEYS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ON ALL KEYS COASTAL
WATERS OVERNIGHT. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES EXPECTED
TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. SUSTAINED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE COASTAL WATERS
OF THE ATLANTIC AND OFFSHORE GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC AND OFFSHORE GULF OF MEXICO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ON
THE COASTAL WATERS OF FLORIDA BAY AND NEARSHORE GULF OF MEXICO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO SUSTAINED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ON THE COASTAL
WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC AND OFFSHORE GULF OF MEXICO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO SUSTAINED NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20
KNOTS. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS
THROUGH 21/12Z. THEREAFTER...POTENTIAL MVFR CEILINGS MAY DROP BELOW
2K FEET. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST LESS THAN 10
KNOTS...WHILE VEERING AROUND TO WEST TO NORTHWEST ABOVE 7K FEET.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1973...2.50 INCHES
OF RAIN FELL AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THIS SET THE DAILY
RECORD FOR MAXIMUM RAINFALL MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON DECEMBER 20TH...
A RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 41 YEARS LATER. RAINFALL RECORDS AT KEY
WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION/CLIMATE.............BWC

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 201953
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
253 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE LOW LEVEL RIDGING HAS RECEDED EAST INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...GIVING WAY TO LOWERING HEIGHTS WHICH HAVE OVERSPREAD MOST
OF THE UNITED STATES. BROAD-CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A
WEAK LOW SOUTH OF LOUISIANA...WHILE VISIBLE SATELLITE PHOTOS
HIGHLIGHT A DISTURBANCE NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...COLLOCATED WITH
A TPW MAXIMUM AND A TRAFFIC JAM IN THE EASTERLIES. CLOSER TO
HOME...GENTLE SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES HAVE MODERATED TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR 80 DEGREES. DEWPOINTS ARE ON THE RISE AS WELL...ABOUT 8 DEGREES
HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. SKIES HAVE BEEN OCCASIONALLY
VEILED BY THIN LAYERS OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...THE ALTO LAYERS WELL
PORTRAYED BY THE 305 K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. THE RADAR REMAINS ECHO
FREE.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE
PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...GENTLE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY
BREEZES...HIGHS NEAR 80...AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. THE WESTERN
EXTENT OF THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS OUR
REGION...SQUELCHING SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES. A WEAK UNDULATION IN
THE STEERING FLOW MAY PASS THROUGH MONDAY...BUT MORE THAN ISOLATED
COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE ACTION BEGINS ON TUESDAY
AS A STRONG MID LATITUDE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...PLACING THE GULF OF MEXICO IN AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF
DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION AND WARM THERMAL ADVECTION. THE
ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT DRIVES TO THE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. OUR
VERTICAL WIND PROFILE WILL FEATURE STRENGTHENING AND VEERING WINDS
WITH HEIGHT...A SITUATION WHICH NORMALLY INTENSIFIES THE CUBAN
SHADOW. HOWEVER...THE STEERING FLOW WILL VEER JUST ENOUGH TO THE
SOUTHWEST...SOMETIME WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...IN CONCERT WITH THE COLD
AIR WEDGE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. A SHORT PERIOD OF CONFLUENT
AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL OVERTAKE THE KEYS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING...COINCIDENT WITH A MEAGER AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
STRONG NORTHWEST BREEZES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL FOLLOW A SHARP
NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT...AROUND 00Z THURSDAY. THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE
REMAINS SPLIT WITH TIMING AND THE AMOUNT OF CAA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SO
OUR FORECAST LEANS ON OUR ONLY AVAILABLE ENSEMBLE SOLUTION. THE
SURFACE HIGH DRIVING THE CONTINENTAL AIR WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST
ACROSS FLORIDA...RESULTING IN A QUICK RETURN TO MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST EAST OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WILL LINGER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE FLORIDA KEYS TUESDAY AND WILL PASS THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY. STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH BREEZES WILL FOLLOW A SHARP WIND
SHIFT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. MARINERS AND BOATERS SHOULD
PLAN ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.AVIATION...20/18Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE
KEY WEST AND MARATHON AIRPORTS. INCREASING CLOUDS BASED IN THE
FL070-090 LAYER WILL LIKELY BECOME OCCASIONALLY BROKEN COVERAGE
TONIGHT WITH PREDOMINANTLY SCATTERED COVERAGE FL020-025. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1973...THE
DAILY RECORD RAINFALL OF 2.50 INCHES WAS RECORDED AT KEY WEST.
RAINFALL RECORDS RECORDS IN KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871 AT KEY WEST.

&&

.PRELIM POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  72  79  73  79 / -  -  10 10
MARATHON  72  80  73  80 / -  -  10 10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....RIZZO
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 201953
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
253 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE LOW LEVEL RIDGING HAS RECEDED EAST INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...GIVING WAY TO LOWERING HEIGHTS WHICH HAVE OVERSPREAD MOST
OF THE UNITED STATES. BROAD-CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A
WEAK LOW SOUTH OF LOUISIANA...WHILE VISIBLE SATELLITE PHOTOS
HIGHLIGHT A DISTURBANCE NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...COLLOCATED WITH
A TPW MAXIMUM AND A TRAFFIC JAM IN THE EASTERLIES. CLOSER TO
HOME...GENTLE SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES HAVE MODERATED TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR 80 DEGREES. DEWPOINTS ARE ON THE RISE AS WELL...ABOUT 8 DEGREES
HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. SKIES HAVE BEEN OCCASIONALLY
VEILED BY THIN LAYERS OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...THE ALTO LAYERS WELL
PORTRAYED BY THE 305 K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. THE RADAR REMAINS ECHO
FREE.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE
PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...GENTLE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY
BREEZES...HIGHS NEAR 80...AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. THE WESTERN
EXTENT OF THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS OUR
REGION...SQUELCHING SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES. A WEAK UNDULATION IN
THE STEERING FLOW MAY PASS THROUGH MONDAY...BUT MORE THAN ISOLATED
COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE ACTION BEGINS ON TUESDAY
AS A STRONG MID LATITUDE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...PLACING THE GULF OF MEXICO IN AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF
DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION AND WARM THERMAL ADVECTION. THE
ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT DRIVES TO THE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. OUR
VERTICAL WIND PROFILE WILL FEATURE STRENGTHENING AND VEERING WINDS
WITH HEIGHT...A SITUATION WHICH NORMALLY INTENSIFIES THE CUBAN
SHADOW. HOWEVER...THE STEERING FLOW WILL VEER JUST ENOUGH TO THE
SOUTHWEST...SOMETIME WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...IN CONCERT WITH THE COLD
AIR WEDGE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. A SHORT PERIOD OF CONFLUENT
AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL OVERTAKE THE KEYS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING...COINCIDENT WITH A MEAGER AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
STRONG NORTHWEST BREEZES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL FOLLOW A SHARP
NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT...AROUND 00Z THURSDAY. THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE
REMAINS SPLIT WITH TIMING AND THE AMOUNT OF CAA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SO
OUR FORECAST LEANS ON OUR ONLY AVAILABLE ENSEMBLE SOLUTION. THE
SURFACE HIGH DRIVING THE CONTINENTAL AIR WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST
ACROSS FLORIDA...RESULTING IN A QUICK RETURN TO MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST EAST OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WILL LINGER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE FLORIDA KEYS TUESDAY AND WILL PASS THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY. STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH BREEZES WILL FOLLOW A SHARP WIND
SHIFT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. MARINERS AND BOATERS SHOULD
PLAN ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.AVIATION...20/18Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE
KEY WEST AND MARATHON AIRPORTS. INCREASING CLOUDS BASED IN THE
FL070-090 LAYER WILL LIKELY BECOME OCCASIONALLY BROKEN COVERAGE
TONIGHT WITH PREDOMINANTLY SCATTERED COVERAGE FL020-025. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1973...THE
DAILY RECORD RAINFALL OF 2.50 INCHES WAS RECORDED AT KEY WEST.
RAINFALL RECORDS RECORDS IN KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871 AT KEY WEST.

&&

.PRELIM POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  72  79  73  79 / -  -  10 10
MARATHON  72  80  73  80 / -  -  10 10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....RIZZO
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 201542
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1042 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE LOW LEVEL RIDGING HAS RECEDED EAST INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...GIVING WAY TO LOWERING HEIGHTS WHICH HAVE OVERSPREAD MOST
OF THE UNITED STATES. BROAD-CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A
WEAK LOW SOUTH OF LOUISIANA...WHILE EARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE PHOTOS
HIGHLIGHT A DISTURBANCE NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...COLLOCATED WITH A
TPW MAXIMUM AND A TRAFFIC JAM IN THE EASTERLIES. CLOSER TO
HOME...GENTLE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES HAVE MODERATED TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 70S. DEWPOINTS ARE ON THE RISE AS WELL...ABOUT 8
DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. SKIES HAVE BEEN
OCCASIONALLY VEILED BY THIN LAYERS OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...THE
ALTO LAYERS WELL PORTRAYED BY THE 305 K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. THE RADAR
IS ECHO FREE.

.FORECAST...TEMPERATURES WILL TOP-OUT NEAR 80 THIS AFTERNOON UNDER
OCCASIONALLY CLOUDY SKIES. INVERSIONS NEAR 850 AND 670 MB (SEE 12Z
KKEY RAOB) WILL INHIBIT BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS...AND HENCE RAIN
CHANCES ARE NIL. WEAK LIFT BETWEEN THESE TWO LAYERS MAY PRODUCE SOME
SPRINKLES...BUT NO ACCUMULATION. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS RIGHT ON
TRACK.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST EAST OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WILL LINGER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE FLORIDA KEYS TUESDAY AND WILL PASS THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY. STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH BREEZES WILL FOLLOW A SHARP
WIND SHIFT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. MARINERS AND BOATERS SHOULD
PLAN ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.AVIATION......20/15Z TAF AMENDMENTS...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT
THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON AIRPORTS. INCREASING CLOUDS BASED IN THE
FL080-100 LAYER WILL LIKELY BECOME OCCASIONALLY BROKEN COVERAGE
TONIGHT WITH PREDOMINANTLY SCATTERED COVERAGE FL025-030. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PICK UP TO 6 TO 9 KNOTS AND CONTINUE TONIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1973...THE
DAILY RECORD RAINFALL OF 2.50 INCHES WAS RECORDED AT KEY WEST.
RAINFALL RECORDS RECORDS IN KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871 AT KEY WEST.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS/CLIMATE.....RIZZO
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 201542
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1042 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE LOW LEVEL RIDGING HAS RECEDED EAST INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...GIVING WAY TO LOWERING HEIGHTS WHICH HAVE OVERSPREAD MOST
OF THE UNITED STATES. BROAD-CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A
WEAK LOW SOUTH OF LOUISIANA...WHILE EARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE PHOTOS
HIGHLIGHT A DISTURBANCE NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...COLLOCATED WITH A
TPW MAXIMUM AND A TRAFFIC JAM IN THE EASTERLIES. CLOSER TO
HOME...GENTLE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES HAVE MODERATED TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 70S. DEWPOINTS ARE ON THE RISE AS WELL...ABOUT 8
DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. SKIES HAVE BEEN
OCCASIONALLY VEILED BY THIN LAYERS OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...THE
ALTO LAYERS WELL PORTRAYED BY THE 305 K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. THE RADAR
IS ECHO FREE.

.FORECAST...TEMPERATURES WILL TOP-OUT NEAR 80 THIS AFTERNOON UNDER
OCCASIONALLY CLOUDY SKIES. INVERSIONS NEAR 850 AND 670 MB (SEE 12Z
KKEY RAOB) WILL INHIBIT BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS...AND HENCE RAIN
CHANCES ARE NIL. WEAK LIFT BETWEEN THESE TWO LAYERS MAY PRODUCE SOME
SPRINKLES...BUT NO ACCUMULATION. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS RIGHT ON
TRACK.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST EAST OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WILL LINGER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE FLORIDA KEYS TUESDAY AND WILL PASS THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY. STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH BREEZES WILL FOLLOW A SHARP
WIND SHIFT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. MARINERS AND BOATERS SHOULD
PLAN ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.AVIATION......20/15Z TAF AMENDMENTS...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT
THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON AIRPORTS. INCREASING CLOUDS BASED IN THE
FL080-100 LAYER WILL LIKELY BECOME OCCASIONALLY BROKEN COVERAGE
TONIGHT WITH PREDOMINANTLY SCATTERED COVERAGE FL025-030. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PICK UP TO 6 TO 9 KNOTS AND CONTINUE TONIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1973...THE
DAILY RECORD RAINFALL OF 2.50 INCHES WAS RECORDED AT KEY WEST.
RAINFALL RECORDS RECORDS IN KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871 AT KEY WEST.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS/CLIMATE.....RIZZO
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 201154
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
654 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION...
...20/12Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ESE WINDS SHOULD RAPIDLY INCREASE AFTER 12Z AS VERTICAL
MIXING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD KEEP ISLAND TERMINALS AT A STEADY 10
KNOTS. TWO VERY VISIBLE MOIST TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS ARE VISIBLE AT
2.5KFT AND 7.5KFT IN THE MORNING KKEY SOUNDING. BKN025 CANNOT BE
RULED DUE TO THIS LOWER LEVEL INVERSION... BUT OCCURRENCE OF THESE
CONDITIONS WILL BE BRIEF IN NATURE AND DIFFICULT TO TIME.

&&

$$

AVIATION...MSB

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 201154
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
654 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION...
...20/12Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ESE WINDS SHOULD RAPIDLY INCREASE AFTER 12Z AS VERTICAL
MIXING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD KEEP ISLAND TERMINALS AT A STEADY 10
KNOTS. TWO VERY VISIBLE MOIST TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS ARE VISIBLE AT
2.5KFT AND 7.5KFT IN THE MORNING KKEY SOUNDING. BKN025 CANNOT BE
RULED DUE TO THIS LOWER LEVEL INVERSION... BUT OCCURRENCE OF THESE
CONDITIONS WILL BE BRIEF IN NATURE AND DIFFICULT TO TIME.

&&

$$

AVIATION...MSB

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 200918
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
415 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UNLIKE THE LAST WEEK OR SO...WINDS HAVE VEERED TO LIGHT EAST AND
SOUTHEAST RESULTING IN PATCHES OF CLOUDS WHILE TEMPERATURES HAVE
CLIMBED FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S...TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 70 DEGREES
OVERNIGHT ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN. MEANWHILE...LOCAL RADARS ARE NOT
DETECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN OUR ENTIRE
REGION...BUT A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
LOCATED IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND JUST SOUTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF
CUBA. THIS AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO A
MID AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMERGING OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
SURFACE WISE...AN NARROW RIDGE HAS SLIPPED OFFSHORE OF THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA...WHILE AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS DRAPED
FROM THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION. ACROSS OUR MARINE DISTRICT...WINDS ARE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS...EXCEPT 5 TO 10 KNOTS ON FLORIDA BAY.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...ALTHOUGH A DEEP ANTICYCLONE
WILL LIE NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS...THE BAHAMIAN CHAIN AND THE
ARCHIPELAGO OF CUBA...PERIODIC SPELLS OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AT
300/305 MB LAYERS WILL ALLOW AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AT 700 MB AND
BELOW RESULTING IN CHANGEABLE SKIES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER...FORMIDABLE LARGE SCALE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE...A
FAIRLY LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW AND COOL NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS SHOULD
PRECLUDE SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM HAWK CHANNEL NORTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY.
THEREAFTER...ENOUGH MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL PROMPT
ISOLATED POPS TO BE RETAINED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. OTHERWISE...A
PREDOMINATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY
IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH REACHING FROM THE UPPER GREAT PLAINS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE LONG HORN STATE OF TEXAS WILL TRANSLATE RAPIDLY
EASTWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND ACROSS THE SUNSHINE STATE
BY LATE WEDNESDAY ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO CLEAR OUR ENTIRE COUNTY
WARNING AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT...FRESH TO STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEPARTING WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. PRESENT THINKING...THE BEST
CHANCE FOR A COUPLE OF EPISODES OF RAINFALL WILL BE LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY WHEN LOW LEVEL FORCING AND SUBTLE
MID AND UPPER LEVEL ASCENT ACCOMPANIES THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.
HENCE...ISOLATED POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL INCREASE TO LOW
CHANCE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER...DECREASING
CLOUDINESS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY
AFTERNOON ON CHRISTMAS DAY. TEMPERATURE WISE...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR 80 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL COLD AIR ADVECTION PUNCHES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE QUICKLY WITH A MARITIME
EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS ON THE
FLORIDA STRAITS WILL PREVAIL ON ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVERSPREAD OUR
ENTIRE MARINE DISTRICT LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
THEREAFTER...MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT MAY REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...
...20/09Z TAF AMENDMENTS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...BUT IN A DEPARTURE FROM THE PREVIOUS WEEK OR SO...ESE
WINDS WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH AROUND 15Z...AND WILL USHER
IN SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CUMULUS DECKS. BKN025 CANNOT BE RULED OUT
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT TIMING OF
THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE BRIEF IN NATURE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1973...THE DAILY RECORD
RAINFALL OF 2.50 INCHES WAS RECORDED AT KEY WEST. RAINFALL RECORDS
RECORDS IN KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871 AT KEY WEST.

&&

.PRELIM POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  78  72  79  72 / -  -  - 10
MARATHON  79  72  80  72 / -  -  - 10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........APA
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....MB


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000
FXUS62 KKEY 200918
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
415 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UNLIKE THE LAST WEEK OR SO...WINDS HAVE VEERED TO LIGHT EAST AND
SOUTHEAST RESULTING IN PATCHES OF CLOUDS WHILE TEMPERATURES HAVE
CLIMBED FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S...TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 70 DEGREES
OVERNIGHT ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN. MEANWHILE...LOCAL RADARS ARE NOT
DETECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN OUR ENTIRE
REGION...BUT A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
LOCATED IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND JUST SOUTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF
CUBA. THIS AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO A
MID AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMERGING OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
SURFACE WISE...AN NARROW RIDGE HAS SLIPPED OFFSHORE OF THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA...WHILE AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS DRAPED
FROM THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION. ACROSS OUR MARINE DISTRICT...WINDS ARE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS...EXCEPT 5 TO 10 KNOTS ON FLORIDA BAY.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...ALTHOUGH A DEEP ANTICYCLONE
WILL LIE NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS...THE BAHAMIAN CHAIN AND THE
ARCHIPELAGO OF CUBA...PERIODIC SPELLS OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AT
300/305 MB LAYERS WILL ALLOW AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AT 700 MB AND
BELOW RESULTING IN CHANGEABLE SKIES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER...FORMIDABLE LARGE SCALE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE...A
FAIRLY LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW AND COOL NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS SHOULD
PRECLUDE SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM HAWK CHANNEL NORTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY.
THEREAFTER...ENOUGH MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL PROMPT
ISOLATED POPS TO BE RETAINED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. OTHERWISE...A
PREDOMINATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY
IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH REACHING FROM THE UPPER GREAT PLAINS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE LONG HORN STATE OF TEXAS WILL TRANSLATE RAPIDLY
EASTWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND ACROSS THE SUNSHINE STATE
BY LATE WEDNESDAY ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO CLEAR OUR ENTIRE COUNTY
WARNING AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT...FRESH TO STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEPARTING WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. PRESENT THINKING...THE BEST
CHANCE FOR A COUPLE OF EPISODES OF RAINFALL WILL BE LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY WHEN LOW LEVEL FORCING AND SUBTLE
MID AND UPPER LEVEL ASCENT ACCOMPANIES THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.
HENCE...ISOLATED POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL INCREASE TO LOW
CHANCE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER...DECREASING
CLOUDINESS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY
AFTERNOON ON CHRISTMAS DAY. TEMPERATURE WISE...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR 80 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL COLD AIR ADVECTION PUNCHES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE QUICKLY WITH A MARITIME
EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS ON THE
FLORIDA STRAITS WILL PREVAIL ON ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVERSPREAD OUR
ENTIRE MARINE DISTRICT LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
THEREAFTER...MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT MAY REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...
...20/09Z TAF AMENDMENTS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...BUT IN A DEPARTURE FROM THE PREVIOUS WEEK OR SO...ESE
WINDS WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH AROUND 15Z...AND WILL USHER
IN SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CUMULUS DECKS. BKN025 CANNOT BE RULED OUT
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT TIMING OF
THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE BRIEF IN NATURE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1973...THE DAILY RECORD
RAINFALL OF 2.50 INCHES WAS RECORDED AT KEY WEST. RAINFALL RECORDS
RECORDS IN KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871 AT KEY WEST.

&&

.PRELIM POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  78  72  79  72 / -  -  - 10
MARATHON  79  72  80  72 / -  -  - 10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........APA
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....MB


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000
FXUS62 KKEY 200217
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
920 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES. SKIES OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN
ARE MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDS OVER LAND ARE NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 5 TO 10
MPH. C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE EAST NEAR 10 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES
ARE NEAR 70 DEGREES.

.SHORT TERM (OVERNIGHT)...
IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT. IN
THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL
TONIGHT. THE 00Z KKEY SOUNDING IS STABLE AND QUITE DRY FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR...WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUE JUST ABOVE THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT.
BY SUNRISE SATURDAY...PWAT VALUES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO ONE AND ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH...WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
DECEMBER. DESPITE THIS ANTICIPATED INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE...THE STABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR NO
CHANCE OF RAINFALL IN THE FLORIDA KEYS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ON ALL KEYS COASTAL
WATERS OVERNIGHT. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES EXPECTED
TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z AT BOTH THE KEY
WEST INTERNATIONAL AND MARATHON ISLAND TERMINALS. NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL VEER OVERNIGHT AND BECOME EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY BY SUNRISE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1901...THE LOW
TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST WAS 51 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD
FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON DECEMBER 19TH...A
RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 113 YEARS LATER. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT
KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION/CLIMATE.............BWC

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 200217
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
920 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES. SKIES OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN
ARE MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDS OVER LAND ARE NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 5 TO 10
MPH. C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE EAST NEAR 10 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES
ARE NEAR 70 DEGREES.

.SHORT TERM (OVERNIGHT)...
IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT. IN
THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL
TONIGHT. THE 00Z KKEY SOUNDING IS STABLE AND QUITE DRY FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR...WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUE JUST ABOVE THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT.
BY SUNRISE SATURDAY...PWAT VALUES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO ONE AND ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH...WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
DECEMBER. DESPITE THIS ANTICIPATED INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE...THE STABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR NO
CHANCE OF RAINFALL IN THE FLORIDA KEYS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ON ALL KEYS COASTAL
WATERS OVERNIGHT. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES EXPECTED
TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z AT BOTH THE KEY
WEST INTERNATIONAL AND MARATHON ISLAND TERMINALS. NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL VEER OVERNIGHT AND BECOME EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY BY SUNRISE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1901...THE LOW
TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST WAS 51 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD
FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON DECEMBER 19TH...A
RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 113 YEARS LATER. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT
KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION/CLIMATE.............BWC

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