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000
FXUS62 KKEY 240321
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1021 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MAINLY PASSING ALTO CUMULUS AND CIRRUS
DECKS ABOVE 5000 FEET. RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN FEW AND FAR BETWEEN
TONIGHT...BUT HAVE BEEN MOST APPARENT IN THE FORM OF LOW TOPPED
RAPIDLY MOVING SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS WHERE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED DUE TO CLASHING WIND REGIMES. MOST
SHOWERS WERE OF DUBIOUS INTENSITY HOWEVER...AND QUESTIONS REMAIN AS
TO HOW MUCH RAINFALL IS ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND IN THESE
SHOWERS. WINDS SLACKENED VERY QUICKLY ACROSS THE KEYS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON...AND WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS...EAST- SOUTHEASTERLY
MARINE WINDS ARE 10 TO 15 KNOTS ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND
NEAR 10 KNOTS OR LESS ACROSS THE GULF AND BAYSIDE WATERS. THE EVENING
SOUNDING CAME IN WITH A RAPID REDUCTION IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE VALUES...AND AN OVERALL DECREASE IN PWAT TO 1.59 INCHES.
LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOWED SIGNIFICANT VEERING...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS MUCH
SPEED SHEER AS WAS INDICATED BY PREVIOUS MODEL OUTPUT SOUNDINGS. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH...AND INSTABILITY BELOW 850 MB WAS
SURPRISINGLY HIGH. THE LOWEST CAPPING INVERSION IS BASED AT THAT
LEVEL HOWEVER...AND WILL REPRESENT A SIGNIFICANT IMPEDANCE TO
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.

.SHORT TERM...
SLIGHT MODIFICATIONS WERE REQUIRED FOR THE FIRST PERIOD OF THE PUBLIC
FORECAST THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH
A MID AND UPPER LEVEL PLUME OF MOISTURE STREAMING TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE VEERING
PROFILE...SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND MODEST INSTABILITY ALL
IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO COMPETE AGAINST THE SIGNIFICANT LOW
LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION AND AS SUCH FEEL CONFIDENT THAT SHOWERS
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VERY SLIGHT CATEGORY OVERNIGHT AND EXPLICIT
MENTION OF THESE SHOWERS IN THE ZFP ARE NOT WARRANTED. WINDS ALONG
THE ISLAND CHAIN SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT 5 TO 10 MPH.
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO COMPLETELY DIP INTO THE MID 70S
OVERNIGHT ON ACCOUNT OF RICH DEW POINTS ACROSS THE ISLANDS...BUT A
FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THAT ARE FORECASTED NEAR DAYBREAK SHOULD
ALLOW AT LEAST SOME MEASURE OF RADIATIONAL COOLING AND EROSION OF
SURFACE DEW POINTS. SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURE
OR ANY OTHER GRIDDED OR TEXT FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.

ONLY OTHER FIRST PERIOD CONCERN IS FOR COASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE
FLORIDA KEYS. NEAR-MAXIMUM LUNAR TIDES AND A GENEROUS RESIDUAL VALUE
OF MAINLY ATMOSPHERIC TIDES WERE OBSERVED TONIGHT AT THE KEY WEST
TIDAL OBSERVING STATION. THESE TWO FACTORS WILL COMBINE TO CREATE
SOME MINOR AMOUNTS OF COASTAL TIDAL FLOODING ACROSS THE KEYS.

&&

.MARINE...
A LATE AFTERNOON UPDATE WAS REQUIRED TO ADJUST FOR RAPIDLY DECREASING
WINDS ACROSS THE KEYS. AFTER THIS UPDATE...A FEW CHANNELS OF HIGHER
WINDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE HAWK CHANNEL ZONES... BUT IN
AGGREGATE...EAST -SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS TO
PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS AND NIGHTS AT THIS TIME BEFORE ANOTHER
FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE ISLANDS FROM THE NORTH AND WEST EARLY ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY. A GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST BREEZE TONIGHT
WILL TURN MORE TO THE SOUTH ON MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1944...THE LOW TEMPERATURE
IN KEY WEST DIPPED TO 58 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY LOW TEMPERATURE
RECORD FOR NOVEMBER 23 IN KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST
DATE BACK TO 1872.


&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........MSB
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....04
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 240321
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1021 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MAINLY PASSING ALTO CUMULUS AND CIRRUS
DECKS ABOVE 5000 FEET. RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN FEW AND FAR BETWEEN
TONIGHT...BUT HAVE BEEN MOST APPARENT IN THE FORM OF LOW TOPPED
RAPIDLY MOVING SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS WHERE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED DUE TO CLASHING WIND REGIMES. MOST
SHOWERS WERE OF DUBIOUS INTENSITY HOWEVER...AND QUESTIONS REMAIN AS
TO HOW MUCH RAINFALL IS ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND IN THESE
SHOWERS. WINDS SLACKENED VERY QUICKLY ACROSS THE KEYS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON...AND WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS...EAST- SOUTHEASTERLY
MARINE WINDS ARE 10 TO 15 KNOTS ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND
NEAR 10 KNOTS OR LESS ACROSS THE GULF AND BAYSIDE WATERS. THE EVENING
SOUNDING CAME IN WITH A RAPID REDUCTION IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE VALUES...AND AN OVERALL DECREASE IN PWAT TO 1.59 INCHES.
LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOWED SIGNIFICANT VEERING...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS MUCH
SPEED SHEER AS WAS INDICATED BY PREVIOUS MODEL OUTPUT SOUNDINGS. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH...AND INSTABILITY BELOW 850 MB WAS
SURPRISINGLY HIGH. THE LOWEST CAPPING INVERSION IS BASED AT THAT
LEVEL HOWEVER...AND WILL REPRESENT A SIGNIFICANT IMPEDANCE TO
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.

.SHORT TERM...
SLIGHT MODIFICATIONS WERE REQUIRED FOR THE FIRST PERIOD OF THE PUBLIC
FORECAST THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH
A MID AND UPPER LEVEL PLUME OF MOISTURE STREAMING TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE VEERING
PROFILE...SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND MODEST INSTABILITY ALL
IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO COMPETE AGAINST THE SIGNIFICANT LOW
LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION AND AS SUCH FEEL CONFIDENT THAT SHOWERS
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VERY SLIGHT CATEGORY OVERNIGHT AND EXPLICIT
MENTION OF THESE SHOWERS IN THE ZFP ARE NOT WARRANTED. WINDS ALONG
THE ISLAND CHAIN SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT 5 TO 10 MPH.
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO COMPLETELY DIP INTO THE MID 70S
OVERNIGHT ON ACCOUNT OF RICH DEW POINTS ACROSS THE ISLANDS...BUT A
FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THAT ARE FORECASTED NEAR DAYBREAK SHOULD
ALLOW AT LEAST SOME MEASURE OF RADIATIONAL COOLING AND EROSION OF
SURFACE DEW POINTS. SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURE
OR ANY OTHER GRIDDED OR TEXT FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.

ONLY OTHER FIRST PERIOD CONCERN IS FOR COASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE
FLORIDA KEYS. NEAR-MAXIMUM LUNAR TIDES AND A GENEROUS RESIDUAL VALUE
OF MAINLY ATMOSPHERIC TIDES WERE OBSERVED TONIGHT AT THE KEY WEST
TIDAL OBSERVING STATION. THESE TWO FACTORS WILL COMBINE TO CREATE
SOME MINOR AMOUNTS OF COASTAL TIDAL FLOODING ACROSS THE KEYS.

&&

.MARINE...
A LATE AFTERNOON UPDATE WAS REQUIRED TO ADJUST FOR RAPIDLY DECREASING
WINDS ACROSS THE KEYS. AFTER THIS UPDATE...A FEW CHANNELS OF HIGHER
WINDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE HAWK CHANNEL ZONES... BUT IN
AGGREGATE...EAST -SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS TO
PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS AND NIGHTS AT THIS TIME BEFORE ANOTHER
FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE ISLANDS FROM THE NORTH AND WEST EARLY ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY. A GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST BREEZE TONIGHT
WILL TURN MORE TO THE SOUTH ON MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1944...THE LOW TEMPERATURE
IN KEY WEST DIPPED TO 58 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY LOW TEMPERATURE
RECORD FOR NOVEMBER 23 IN KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST
DATE BACK TO 1872.


&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........MSB
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....04
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 232013
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
313 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...WITH AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S. WINDS HAVE VEERED TO SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST AND DECREASED SLOWLY DURING THE DAY. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
LIGHT AND ISOLATED IN COVERAGE ALL DAY...WITH ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES
LEFT OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AT THIS HOUR. DRY
AIR HAS MOVED IN ALOFT...WHILE MORE DIFLUENT FLOW HAS DEVELOPED IN
THE ATMOSPHERIC BOUNDARY LAYER SINCE YESTERDAY.

WE POSSESS MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECASTS THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... AND
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER.

MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN NIL OVERNIGHT AND ONLY SLIGHT
ON MONDAY OWING TO DRY AIR ALOFT AND A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING AT
ANY ALTITUDE. WE HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY NIGHT OWING
TO A COMBINATION OF FACTORS -- 1/ A PLUME OF RICH TROPICAL
MOISTURE...CURRENTLY EVIDENT IN MIMIC-TPW IMAGERY BETWEEN HISPANIOLA
AND EASTERN CUBA...WILL ARRIVE ROUGHLY AROUND EARLY MONDAY EVENING...
2/ A PERIOD OF LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC MASS CONVERGENCE DUE TO A LARGE-
SCALE ACCELERATION OF EASTERLIES ALONG THE EQUATORWARD FLANK OF AN
INTENSIFYING ATLANTIC ANTICYCLONE WILL COMMENCE ABOUT THE SAME TIME
THAT THE DEEP MOISTURE PLUME ARRIVES...AND 3/ AN EASTWARD-MIGRATING
MIDLATITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED JET WILL INDUCE A
FAVORABLE OUTFLOW PATTERN ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA...KEYS...AND ADJACENT WATERS.

FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES REMAIN SCALED BACK AS
THE FLORIDA KEYS REMAIN BETWEEN SYNOPTIC-SCALE SYSTEMS. BEST TIMING
FOR THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EPISODE AND COLD FRONT LOOKS
LIKE WEDNESDAY MIDDAY. EXACT TIMING...AS WELL AS CONVECTIVE MODES...
PRECIPITATION STRUCTURES...SKY COVER...AND WIND PATTERN WILL DEPEND
ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA EVOLVING BETWEEN
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS...IN TURN...
WILL DEPEND UPON THE POSITION AND INTENSITY OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
MIGRATING THROUGH THE GULF BASIN AND SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
HENCE...THE UNCERTAINTY.

REGARDLESS OF WHAT HAPPENS WEDNESDAY...A DECENT NORTH TO NORTHEAST
BLOW LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AND WE HAVE
INCREASED THE WIND SPEEDS FOR THIS TIME FRAME.
&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA FOR THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE ADVISORY LIKELY WILL BE
DISCONTINUED FOR ALL ZONES OVERNIGHT. FRESH SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL
BLOW ACROSS HAWK CHANNEL AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH LIGHTER BREEZES OVER FLORIDA BAY...AND THE EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN
OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC TONIGHT...WHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EVOLVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY AND TUESDAY...APPROACH THE
FLORIDA KEYS TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LIKELY WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. STRONG NORTH
TO NORTHEAST BREEZES ARE LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THIS COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS THROUGH 24/18Z. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 5
AND 10 KNOTS. AFT 24/00Z...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN
10 KNOTS AND SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE...NOVEMBER 23...IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...
IN 1957...THE DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 86F WAS RECORDED.
TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.
&&

.PRELIM POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  83  76  83  75 / -  -  10 50
MARATHON  84  76  84  75 / -  -  10 50
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR GMZ052-GMZ053-GMZ054-
     GMZ072-GMZ073-GMZ074.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 232013
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
313 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...WITH AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S. WINDS HAVE VEERED TO SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST AND DECREASED SLOWLY DURING THE DAY. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
LIGHT AND ISOLATED IN COVERAGE ALL DAY...WITH ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES
LEFT OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AT THIS HOUR. DRY
AIR HAS MOVED IN ALOFT...WHILE MORE DIFLUENT FLOW HAS DEVELOPED IN
THE ATMOSPHERIC BOUNDARY LAYER SINCE YESTERDAY.

WE POSSESS MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECASTS THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... AND
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER.

MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN NIL OVERNIGHT AND ONLY SLIGHT
ON MONDAY OWING TO DRY AIR ALOFT AND A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING AT
ANY ALTITUDE. WE HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY NIGHT OWING
TO A COMBINATION OF FACTORS -- 1/ A PLUME OF RICH TROPICAL
MOISTURE...CURRENTLY EVIDENT IN MIMIC-TPW IMAGERY BETWEEN HISPANIOLA
AND EASTERN CUBA...WILL ARRIVE ROUGHLY AROUND EARLY MONDAY EVENING...
2/ A PERIOD OF LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC MASS CONVERGENCE DUE TO A LARGE-
SCALE ACCELERATION OF EASTERLIES ALONG THE EQUATORWARD FLANK OF AN
INTENSIFYING ATLANTIC ANTICYCLONE WILL COMMENCE ABOUT THE SAME TIME
THAT THE DEEP MOISTURE PLUME ARRIVES...AND 3/ AN EASTWARD-MIGRATING
MIDLATITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED JET WILL INDUCE A
FAVORABLE OUTFLOW PATTERN ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA...KEYS...AND ADJACENT WATERS.

FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES REMAIN SCALED BACK AS
THE FLORIDA KEYS REMAIN BETWEEN SYNOPTIC-SCALE SYSTEMS. BEST TIMING
FOR THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EPISODE AND COLD FRONT LOOKS
LIKE WEDNESDAY MIDDAY. EXACT TIMING...AS WELL AS CONVECTIVE MODES...
PRECIPITATION STRUCTURES...SKY COVER...AND WIND PATTERN WILL DEPEND
ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA EVOLVING BETWEEN
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS...IN TURN...
WILL DEPEND UPON THE POSITION AND INTENSITY OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
MIGRATING THROUGH THE GULF BASIN AND SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
HENCE...THE UNCERTAINTY.

REGARDLESS OF WHAT HAPPENS WEDNESDAY...A DECENT NORTH TO NORTHEAST
BLOW LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AND WE HAVE
INCREASED THE WIND SPEEDS FOR THIS TIME FRAME.
&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA FOR THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE ADVISORY LIKELY WILL BE
DISCONTINUED FOR ALL ZONES OVERNIGHT. FRESH SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL
BLOW ACROSS HAWK CHANNEL AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH LIGHTER BREEZES OVER FLORIDA BAY...AND THE EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN
OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC TONIGHT...WHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EVOLVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY AND TUESDAY...APPROACH THE
FLORIDA KEYS TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LIKELY WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. STRONG NORTH
TO NORTHEAST BREEZES ARE LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THIS COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS THROUGH 24/18Z. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 5
AND 10 KNOTS. AFT 24/00Z...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN
10 KNOTS AND SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE...NOVEMBER 23...IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...
IN 1957...THE DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 86F WAS RECORDED.
TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.
&&

.PRELIM POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  83  76  83  75 / -  -  10 50
MARATHON  84  76  84  75 / -  -  10 50
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR GMZ052-GMZ053-GMZ054-
     GMZ072-GMZ073-GMZ074.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST









000
FXUS62 KKEY 232013
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
313 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...WITH AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S. WINDS HAVE VEERED TO SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST AND DECREASED SLOWLY DURING THE DAY. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
LIGHT AND ISOLATED IN COVERAGE ALL DAY...WITH ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES
LEFT OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AT THIS HOUR. DRY
AIR HAS MOVED IN ALOFT...WHILE MORE DIFLUENT FLOW HAS DEVELOPED IN
THE ATMOSPHERIC BOUNDARY LAYER SINCE YESTERDAY.

WE POSSESS MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECASTS THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... AND
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER.

MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN NIL OVERNIGHT AND ONLY SLIGHT
ON MONDAY OWING TO DRY AIR ALOFT AND A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING AT
ANY ALTITUDE. WE HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY NIGHT OWING
TO A COMBINATION OF FACTORS -- 1/ A PLUME OF RICH TROPICAL
MOISTURE...CURRENTLY EVIDENT IN MIMIC-TPW IMAGERY BETWEEN HISPANIOLA
AND EASTERN CUBA...WILL ARRIVE ROUGHLY AROUND EARLY MONDAY EVENING...
2/ A PERIOD OF LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC MASS CONVERGENCE DUE TO A LARGE-
SCALE ACCELERATION OF EASTERLIES ALONG THE EQUATORWARD FLANK OF AN
INTENSIFYING ATLANTIC ANTICYCLONE WILL COMMENCE ABOUT THE SAME TIME
THAT THE DEEP MOISTURE PLUME ARRIVES...AND 3/ AN EASTWARD-MIGRATING
MIDLATITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED JET WILL INDUCE A
FAVORABLE OUTFLOW PATTERN ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA...KEYS...AND ADJACENT WATERS.

FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES REMAIN SCALED BACK AS
THE FLORIDA KEYS REMAIN BETWEEN SYNOPTIC-SCALE SYSTEMS. BEST TIMING
FOR THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EPISODE AND COLD FRONT LOOKS
LIKE WEDNESDAY MIDDAY. EXACT TIMING...AS WELL AS CONVECTIVE MODES...
PRECIPITATION STRUCTURES...SKY COVER...AND WIND PATTERN WILL DEPEND
ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA EVOLVING BETWEEN
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS...IN TURN...
WILL DEPEND UPON THE POSITION AND INTENSITY OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
MIGRATING THROUGH THE GULF BASIN AND SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
HENCE...THE UNCERTAINTY.

REGARDLESS OF WHAT HAPPENS WEDNESDAY...A DECENT NORTH TO NORTHEAST
BLOW LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AND WE HAVE
INCREASED THE WIND SPEEDS FOR THIS TIME FRAME.
&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA FOR THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE ADVISORY LIKELY WILL BE
DISCONTINUED FOR ALL ZONES OVERNIGHT. FRESH SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL
BLOW ACROSS HAWK CHANNEL AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH LIGHTER BREEZES OVER FLORIDA BAY...AND THE EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN
OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC TONIGHT...WHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EVOLVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY AND TUESDAY...APPROACH THE
FLORIDA KEYS TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LIKELY WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. STRONG NORTH
TO NORTHEAST BREEZES ARE LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THIS COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS THROUGH 24/18Z. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 5
AND 10 KNOTS. AFT 24/00Z...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN
10 KNOTS AND SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE...NOVEMBER 23...IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...
IN 1957...THE DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 86F WAS RECORDED.
TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.
&&

.PRELIM POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  83  76  83  75 / -  -  10 50
MARATHON  84  76  84  75 / -  -  10 50
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR GMZ052-GMZ053-GMZ054-
     GMZ072-GMZ073-GMZ074.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 232013
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
313 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...WITH AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S. WINDS HAVE VEERED TO SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST AND DECREASED SLOWLY DURING THE DAY. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
LIGHT AND ISOLATED IN COVERAGE ALL DAY...WITH ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES
LEFT OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AT THIS HOUR. DRY
AIR HAS MOVED IN ALOFT...WHILE MORE DIFLUENT FLOW HAS DEVELOPED IN
THE ATMOSPHERIC BOUNDARY LAYER SINCE YESTERDAY.

WE POSSESS MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECASTS THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... AND
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER.

MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN NIL OVERNIGHT AND ONLY SLIGHT
ON MONDAY OWING TO DRY AIR ALOFT AND A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING AT
ANY ALTITUDE. WE HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY NIGHT OWING
TO A COMBINATION OF FACTORS -- 1/ A PLUME OF RICH TROPICAL
MOISTURE...CURRENTLY EVIDENT IN MIMIC-TPW IMAGERY BETWEEN HISPANIOLA
AND EASTERN CUBA...WILL ARRIVE ROUGHLY AROUND EARLY MONDAY EVENING...
2/ A PERIOD OF LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC MASS CONVERGENCE DUE TO A LARGE-
SCALE ACCELERATION OF EASTERLIES ALONG THE EQUATORWARD FLANK OF AN
INTENSIFYING ATLANTIC ANTICYCLONE WILL COMMENCE ABOUT THE SAME TIME
THAT THE DEEP MOISTURE PLUME ARRIVES...AND 3/ AN EASTWARD-MIGRATING
MIDLATITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED JET WILL INDUCE A
FAVORABLE OUTFLOW PATTERN ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA...KEYS...AND ADJACENT WATERS.

FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES REMAIN SCALED BACK AS
THE FLORIDA KEYS REMAIN BETWEEN SYNOPTIC-SCALE SYSTEMS. BEST TIMING
FOR THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EPISODE AND COLD FRONT LOOKS
LIKE WEDNESDAY MIDDAY. EXACT TIMING...AS WELL AS CONVECTIVE MODES...
PRECIPITATION STRUCTURES...SKY COVER...AND WIND PATTERN WILL DEPEND
ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA EVOLVING BETWEEN
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS...IN TURN...
WILL DEPEND UPON THE POSITION AND INTENSITY OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
MIGRATING THROUGH THE GULF BASIN AND SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
HENCE...THE UNCERTAINTY.

REGARDLESS OF WHAT HAPPENS WEDNESDAY...A DECENT NORTH TO NORTHEAST
BLOW LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AND WE HAVE
INCREASED THE WIND SPEEDS FOR THIS TIME FRAME.
&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA FOR THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE ADVISORY LIKELY WILL BE
DISCONTINUED FOR ALL ZONES OVERNIGHT. FRESH SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL
BLOW ACROSS HAWK CHANNEL AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH LIGHTER BREEZES OVER FLORIDA BAY...AND THE EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN
OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC TONIGHT...WHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EVOLVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY AND TUESDAY...APPROACH THE
FLORIDA KEYS TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LIKELY WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. STRONG NORTH
TO NORTHEAST BREEZES ARE LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THIS COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS THROUGH 24/18Z. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 5
AND 10 KNOTS. AFT 24/00Z...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN
10 KNOTS AND SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE...NOVEMBER 23...IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...
IN 1957...THE DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 86F WAS RECORDED.
TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.
&&

.PRELIM POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  83  76  83  75 / -  -  10 50
MARATHON  84  76  84  75 / -  -  10 50
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR GMZ052-GMZ053-GMZ054-
     GMZ072-GMZ073-GMZ074.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 231544
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1044 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS NOW COVERS THE ENTIRE SERVICE AREA...
WITH CURRENT AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S AND DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS PREVAIL IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES BEING MAINTAINED ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA REEF TRACT...AS A LARGE ANTICYCLONE OF
CONTINENTAL ORIGIN SLOWLY WEAKENS OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC
BASIN. AN APPRAISAL OF KEY WEST RADIOSONDE BALLOON DATA OVER THE LAST
24 HOURS INDICATES A DRYING TREND IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE...WITH
WARMING THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE TROPOSPHERIC COLUMN. THIS IN TURN HAS
INCREASED OVERALL STATIC STABILITY AND PROVIDED A MORE HOSTILE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEEP...MOIST CONVECTION. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS
DECIDEDLY LESS ACROSS THE SERVICE AREA THIS MORNING THAN HAS BEEN THE
CASE DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS...WITH ONLY ISOLATED CELLS DETECTED BY
RECENT KEY WEST DOPPLER RADAR SCANS.

FEW CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO THE FORECASTS THIS MORNING. AFTERNOON
AIR TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK IN THE MID 80S UNDER SKIES RANGING FROM
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY.
&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ZONES COVERING THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. OBSERVED WINDS AT BOTH MOLASSES
REEF AND SOMBRERO KEY STATIONS HAVE BEEN SUSTAINED NEAR 20 KNOTS WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS. WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE LOWER AT
THE SAND KEY STATION...WITH LIGHTER WINDS EVEN STILL OVER FLORIDA BAY
AND THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ALSO...A SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE IS BEING RETAINED FOR HAWK CHANNEL ZONES
WITH NO HEADLINES ELSEWHERE. BREEZES SHOULD SLACKEN FURTHER ALL ZONES
TONIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A PASSING SHOWER IS POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...AVIATION IMPACTS ARE UNLIKELY. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS...WITH BRIEF GUSTY WINDS UP TO 15
KNOTS. THEN...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
AND SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE...NOVEMBER 23...IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...
IN 1957...THE DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 86F WAS RECORDED.
TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR GMZ052-GMZ053-GMZ054-
     GMZ055-GMZ072-GMZ073-GMZ074-GMZ075.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 231544
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1044 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS NOW COVERS THE ENTIRE SERVICE AREA...
WITH CURRENT AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S AND DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS PREVAIL IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES BEING MAINTAINED ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA REEF TRACT...AS A LARGE ANTICYCLONE OF
CONTINENTAL ORIGIN SLOWLY WEAKENS OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC
BASIN. AN APPRAISAL OF KEY WEST RADIOSONDE BALLOON DATA OVER THE LAST
24 HOURS INDICATES A DRYING TREND IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE...WITH
WARMING THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE TROPOSPHERIC COLUMN. THIS IN TURN HAS
INCREASED OVERALL STATIC STABILITY AND PROVIDED A MORE HOSTILE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEEP...MOIST CONVECTION. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS
DECIDEDLY LESS ACROSS THE SERVICE AREA THIS MORNING THAN HAS BEEN THE
CASE DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS...WITH ONLY ISOLATED CELLS DETECTED BY
RECENT KEY WEST DOPPLER RADAR SCANS.

FEW CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO THE FORECASTS THIS MORNING. AFTERNOON
AIR TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK IN THE MID 80S UNDER SKIES RANGING FROM
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY.
&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ZONES COVERING THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. OBSERVED WINDS AT BOTH MOLASSES
REEF AND SOMBRERO KEY STATIONS HAVE BEEN SUSTAINED NEAR 20 KNOTS WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS. WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE LOWER AT
THE SAND KEY STATION...WITH LIGHTER WINDS EVEN STILL OVER FLORIDA BAY
AND THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ALSO...A SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE IS BEING RETAINED FOR HAWK CHANNEL ZONES
WITH NO HEADLINES ELSEWHERE. BREEZES SHOULD SLACKEN FURTHER ALL ZONES
TONIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A PASSING SHOWER IS POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...AVIATION IMPACTS ARE UNLIKELY. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS...WITH BRIEF GUSTY WINDS UP TO 15
KNOTS. THEN...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
AND SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE...NOVEMBER 23...IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...
IN 1957...THE DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 86F WAS RECORDED.
TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR GMZ052-GMZ053-GMZ054-
     GMZ055-GMZ072-GMZ073-GMZ074-GMZ075.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 231235
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
735 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A PASSING SHOWER...BUT
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE MINIMUM AND BRIEF. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS.

&&

$$

AVIATION...DEVANAS/KN

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 231235
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
735 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A PASSING SHOWER...BUT
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE MINIMUM AND BRIEF. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS.

&&

$$

AVIATION...DEVANAS/KN

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 230835
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
330 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...700-200 MB...LATEST
AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY AS OF 300 AM...OVERLAID WITH AVAILABLE MODEL
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS DETAILS LARGE SCALE TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE BREADTH OF THE CONUS INCLUDING NORTHERN OLD MEXICO AND
THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH SOME SPLITTING OF THE DEEPER MAIN TROUGH
AXIS ACROSS THE LENGTH OF THE PLAINS DOWN TO TEXAS. THE CENTER OF A
REGIONAL SCALE MID AND UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS FIXED OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS...SURFACE TO 700 MB.
LATEST AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY AS OF 300 AM DEPICT THE CENTER OF A 1030
MB SURFACE ANTICYCLONE RESPONSIBLE FOR BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE KEYS DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS SHIFTED TO ABOUT 65
WEST 35 NORTH. A WEAK SURFACE/LOW LEVEL WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA...SO WINDS ARE NOW
SOUTHEASTERLY. AS A RESULT...LAST EVENINGS 00Z SOUNDING STILL
ILLUSTRATED A FRESH TO STRONG AND MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW FROM
OFF THE SURFACE TO 5 KFT...WITH PWAT NEAR 2.00 INCHES.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 300 AM...SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE
ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. RADAR ONLY DETECTS A COUPLE TINY
SHOWERS IN THE STRAITS. C-MAN STATIONS ALONG THE REEF ARE SOUTHEAST
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. ISLAND SENSORS ARE SOUTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLANDS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 70S.

.FORECASTS...A DRIER...WARMER...MORE HUMID...AND LESS WINDY WEATHER
PATTERN BEGINS TODAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. CAN EXPECT
SUNSHINE TO RETURN IN ABUNDANCE AS WELL. AS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
CONTINUES TO PULL EASTWARD TODAY...LOCAL WINDS WINDS WILL VEER MORE
SOUTHEAST...DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON ALL WATERS BY AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AND LIGHT TO GENTLE ON MONDAY
AND THEN VARIABLE ON MONDAY NIGHT. DESPITE THE MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS EACH DAY AND CLEAR SKIES AT NIGHT...LATEST AVAILABLE
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL ILLUSTRATED COLUMNAR PWAT
(PRECIPITABLE WATER) IS AROUND 1.50 INCHES THRU MONDAY. THEREFORE
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY WANDER ACROSS THE KEYS LATER AT NIGHT AND
TOWARDS MORNING...ERGO WILL STILL KEEP A DIME POP IN THE GRIDS
THROUGH MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MODELS CONSISTENT WITH INDICATIONS THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVING OUT OF THE PLAINS CARVES OUT A NARROW YET
SHARP LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT SWEEPS ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY AND REACHES THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE KEYS BY WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM SWEEPS A
COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF MONDAY...REACHING
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA TUESDAY...SOUTHERN FLORIDA TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN BLASTS THROUGH THE KEYS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS STRONG AND
CHILLY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF
COAST AND EAST TEXAS. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS BEGIN TO INCREASE
LOWER TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
WELL AHEAD OF THE FALLING MID LEVEL HEIGHT...WITH SOME ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND COLUMNAR PWAT INDICATED AND PWAT CLIMBING TO BETWEEN 1.75
AND 2.00 INCHES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. POPS ARE LOW TO MID CHANCE
FOR THESE TWO PERIODS.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY INCREASED PREFRONTAL MOISTURE
AND SOME UPPER DYNAMICS IN THE REAR QUADRANT OF THE APPROACHING
TROUGH OVER THE GULF WILL PROVIDE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN JUST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE GRIDS...BUT SLIGHTLY BETTER DYNAMICS ARE FAVORED BY THE ECMWF
AND COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IF THIS
SCENARIO BECOMES CONSISTENT WITH SUBSEQUENT RUNS. GIVEN DEEPER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PRESENT...HIGH CHANCE POPS ARE ALREADY IN
THE GRIDS FOR THESE TWO PERIODS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S AND HIGH LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS DELINEATE WELL THAT
THE SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE KEYS...BUT DEEPER MOISTURE
REMAINING IN THE COLUMN ABOVE IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANOTHER GOOD
FRONTAL INVERSION...AND ASSOCIATED OVERRUNNING HEAVY SHOWERS/AND OR
RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD
CLEAR OUT AFTER SUNSET AS VERY DRY AIR FILTER IN RAPIDLY AND GOOD
1000-850 MB COLD THICKNESS ADVECTION ENSUES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD IN THE 70S DURING WEDNESDAY...FALLING INTO
THE UPPER 50S LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE ONSET OF THE STRONGER
COOL AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT.

THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COOL NEAR 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GULF COAST STATES ON THANKSGIVING CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO
CLEAR...WINDY...DRY...AND COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE KEYS THROUGH
THESE PERIODS. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE GREATLY IMPEDED FOR
RECREATIONAL BOATERS AND SOME TRANSITING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ONLY IN THE HIGH 60S TURKEY DAY...REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 70S
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AGAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND 60 OR BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE RETAINED THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS GIVEN DEVELOPED SEAS AND SOUTHEAST WINDS
NEAR 20 KNOTS...WITH CAUTIONARY HEADLINES ACROSS ALL OTHER WATERS IN
THE MARINE DISTRICT. A CAUTIONARY HEADLINE MAY STILL BE REQUIRED
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS WILL LET
DOWN TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND HEADLINES AND ADVISORIES
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED ANYWHERE MONDAY THRU TUESDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT
APPEAR LIKELY ON ALL WATERS BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KNOTS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK ON ALL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON TERMINALS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A PASSING SHOWER...BUT THE PROBABILITY OF SUCH AN EVENT
RESULTING IN PROLONGED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
THE TERMINAL FORECAST. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIM POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  84  75  84  75  / -  10  10  10
MARATHON  84  76  85  76  / -  10  10  10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 22Z
GMZ042-044&GMZ055-054&GMZ072-075&GMZ033-034

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/GRIDS.........FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS...........DEVANAS

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 230302
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1002 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN CONFINED MOSTLY
TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF OUR ATLANTIC WATERS. LIGHTER AND MORE
SEPARATED SHOWERS HAVE TRACKED ACROSS THE NEARSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS
ADJACENT TO THE KEYS ISLAND CHAIN...AND THEN FURTHER INTO THE
NEARSHORE GULF AND BAY WATERS. TEMPERATURES HAVE SLID TO AND HELD IN
THE MIDDLE 70S SINCE SUNSET ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN.

IR SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN ELONGATED BREAK IN THE CLOUDS BETWEEN
THE STRONGER SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTREME OF OUR SERVICE AREA
AND THE LOWER KEYS. HOWEVER...LOOKING UPSTREAM ACROSS THE
STRAITS...SHALLOW CUMULUS IS ENCOMPASSING MORE AREA. WAS DEBATING A
ZONE UPDATE TO LOWER THE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
BUT MOISTURE REMAINS DEEP ON A FRESH TO STRONG VEERED PROFILE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A 30
PERCENT PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION LOOKS GOOD FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE REMAINDER OF THE SENSIBLE ELEMENTS ARE ALSO
ADVERTISED WELL IN THE AFTERNOON ISSUANCE. UNLESS CLOUD COVER AND
RADAR ECHOES FALL OFF IN THE NEAR TERM...WHICH IS UNLIKELY...NO ZONE
UPDATE IS PLANNED.

&&

.MARINE...
THERE REMAINS A DECENT SPEED GRADIENT FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
WESTERN GULF WATERS TO THE NEARSHORE GULF AND BAY WATERS. IN
GENERAL...WIND SPEEDS HAVE LOST A COUPLE OF KNOTS THROUGHOUT THE
SERVICE AREA. BUT AN ADVISORY FOR SMALL CRAFT STILL LOOKS GOOD AT
LEAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR THE STRAITS...HAWK
CHANNEL...AND THE FAR WESTERN GULF WATERS NORTH OF THE DRY TORTUGAS.
THE UPCOMING COASTAL WATERS UPDATE WILL FEATURE ONLY TRIM FOR SOME
SPEEDS FOR A COUPLE MARINE GROUPS. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS ALL
AREAS...AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN THE EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...
...22/06Z TAF ISSUANCE...SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS HAVE
MAINLY BEEN CONFINED TO THE MARATHON TERMINAL AND SURROUNDING WATERS
FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND VERY FEW CHANGES ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. MVFR IMPACTS AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS SHOULD BE SHORT
LIVED OVERNIGHT. EAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST
SOUTHEAST AND BECOME LEST GUSTY BY MID MORNING TOMORROW.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GMZ034-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........04
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....MSB
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 230302
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1002 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN CONFINED MOSTLY
TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF OUR ATLANTIC WATERS. LIGHTER AND MORE
SEPARATED SHOWERS HAVE TRACKED ACROSS THE NEARSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS
ADJACENT TO THE KEYS ISLAND CHAIN...AND THEN FURTHER INTO THE
NEARSHORE GULF AND BAY WATERS. TEMPERATURES HAVE SLID TO AND HELD IN
THE MIDDLE 70S SINCE SUNSET ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN.

IR SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN ELONGATED BREAK IN THE CLOUDS BETWEEN
THE STRONGER SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTREME OF OUR SERVICE AREA
AND THE LOWER KEYS. HOWEVER...LOOKING UPSTREAM ACROSS THE
STRAITS...SHALLOW CUMULUS IS ENCOMPASSING MORE AREA. WAS DEBATING A
ZONE UPDATE TO LOWER THE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
BUT MOISTURE REMAINS DEEP ON A FRESH TO STRONG VEERED PROFILE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A 30
PERCENT PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION LOOKS GOOD FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE REMAINDER OF THE SENSIBLE ELEMENTS ARE ALSO
ADVERTISED WELL IN THE AFTERNOON ISSUANCE. UNLESS CLOUD COVER AND
RADAR ECHOES FALL OFF IN THE NEAR TERM...WHICH IS UNLIKELY...NO ZONE
UPDATE IS PLANNED.

&&

.MARINE...
THERE REMAINS A DECENT SPEED GRADIENT FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
WESTERN GULF WATERS TO THE NEARSHORE GULF AND BAY WATERS. IN
GENERAL...WIND SPEEDS HAVE LOST A COUPLE OF KNOTS THROUGHOUT THE
SERVICE AREA. BUT AN ADVISORY FOR SMALL CRAFT STILL LOOKS GOOD AT
LEAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR THE STRAITS...HAWK
CHANNEL...AND THE FAR WESTERN GULF WATERS NORTH OF THE DRY TORTUGAS.
THE UPCOMING COASTAL WATERS UPDATE WILL FEATURE ONLY TRIM FOR SOME
SPEEDS FOR A COUPLE MARINE GROUPS. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS ALL
AREAS...AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN THE EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...
...22/06Z TAF ISSUANCE...SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS HAVE
MAINLY BEEN CONFINED TO THE MARATHON TERMINAL AND SURROUNDING WATERS
FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND VERY FEW CHANGES ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. MVFR IMPACTS AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS SHOULD BE SHORT
LIVED OVERNIGHT. EAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST
SOUTHEAST AND BECOME LEST GUSTY BY MID MORNING TOMORROW.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GMZ034-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........04
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....MSB
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 222014
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
314 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WARM AND HUMID AIR...ALONG WITH SOME SUNSHINE...HAS RETURNED TO THE
FLORIDA KEYS TODAY. CURRENTLY...AIR TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 80F IN MOST
KEYS ISLAND COMMUNITIES...WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S. BREEZY EAST WINDS PERSIST AROUND THE ISLANDS...WITH STRONG
EAST BREEZES OVER HAWK CHANNEL AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. LOWER WIND
SPEEDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER FLORIDA BAY AND THE EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OWING TO SOME DECOUPLING OF MOMENTUM IN
THE ATMOSPHERIC BOUNDARY LAYER. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
DETECTED BY KEY WEST DOPPLER ACROSS THE SERVICE AREA...MAINLY OVER
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SOUTH OF THE LOWER KEYS. AN EXPANSIVE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED OVER COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA...AND MOVING
EASTWARD.

THE FORECAST REASONING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS HAS NOT CHANGED TOO
MUCH DURING THE LAST FEW CYCLES. LOWER SKY COVER...RAIN CHANCES...AND
WIND SPEEDS ALONG WITH HIGHER TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED
FROM LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT LOOKS
INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY...PRECEDED BY ELEVATED SKY
COVER...RAIN...AND THUNDER CHANCES...AND FOLLOWED BY MUCH
COOLER...DRIER...AND BREEZIER WEATHER ONCE AGAIN...JUST IN TIME FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY.
&&

.MARINE...
FRESH TO STRONG EAST BREEZES WILL BLOW ACROSS FLORIDA
KEYS COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING...BETWEEN AN EXPANSIVE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
AND A DISSIPATING WARM FRONT OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA. THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT...REACHING THE WESTERN NORTH
ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY. FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES WILL PERSIST
TONIGHT...WITH SLACKENING BREEZES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FLORIDA KEYS TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAY PASS
THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS MAY IMPACT THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON TERMINALS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. EAST WINDS AROUND 12
KTS WILL BE OBSERVED THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KTS...
SHIFTING FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST AFT 23/06Z WITH A DECREASE IN THE
WIND SPEED.
&&

.PRELIM POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  76  84  76  84 / 30 10 10 10
MARATHON  76  84  76  84 / 30 10 10 10
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GMZ034-GMZ042-GMZ043-GMZ044-GMZ052-
     GMZ053-GMZ054-GMZ055-GMZ072-GMZ073-GMZ074-GMZ075.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 222014
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
314 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WARM AND HUMID AIR...ALONG WITH SOME SUNSHINE...HAS RETURNED TO THE
FLORIDA KEYS TODAY. CURRENTLY...AIR TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 80F IN MOST
KEYS ISLAND COMMUNITIES...WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S. BREEZY EAST WINDS PERSIST AROUND THE ISLANDS...WITH STRONG
EAST BREEZES OVER HAWK CHANNEL AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. LOWER WIND
SPEEDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER FLORIDA BAY AND THE EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OWING TO SOME DECOUPLING OF MOMENTUM IN
THE ATMOSPHERIC BOUNDARY LAYER. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
DETECTED BY KEY WEST DOPPLER ACROSS THE SERVICE AREA...MAINLY OVER
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SOUTH OF THE LOWER KEYS. AN EXPANSIVE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED OVER COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA...AND MOVING
EASTWARD.

THE FORECAST REASONING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS HAS NOT CHANGED TOO
MUCH DURING THE LAST FEW CYCLES. LOWER SKY COVER...RAIN CHANCES...AND
WIND SPEEDS ALONG WITH HIGHER TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED
FROM LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT LOOKS
INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY...PRECEDED BY ELEVATED SKY
COVER...RAIN...AND THUNDER CHANCES...AND FOLLOWED BY MUCH
COOLER...DRIER...AND BREEZIER WEATHER ONCE AGAIN...JUST IN TIME FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY.
&&

.MARINE...
FRESH TO STRONG EAST BREEZES WILL BLOW ACROSS FLORIDA
KEYS COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING...BETWEEN AN EXPANSIVE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
AND A DISSIPATING WARM FRONT OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA. THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT...REACHING THE WESTERN NORTH
ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY. FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES WILL PERSIST
TONIGHT...WITH SLACKENING BREEZES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FLORIDA KEYS TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAY PASS
THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS MAY IMPACT THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON TERMINALS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. EAST WINDS AROUND 12
KTS WILL BE OBSERVED THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KTS...
SHIFTING FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST AFT 23/06Z WITH A DECREASE IN THE
WIND SPEED.
&&

.PRELIM POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  76  84  76  84 / 30 10 10 10
MARATHON  76  84  76  84 / 30 10 10 10
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GMZ034-GMZ042-GMZ043-GMZ044-GMZ052-
     GMZ053-GMZ054-GMZ055-GMZ072-GMZ073-GMZ074-GMZ075.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 221740
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1240 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WINDS TURNED EAST EARLIER THIS MORNING ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...RESULTING IN THE WARM AND MOIST...MARITIME
TROPICAL AIR RETURNING TO THE AREA AFTER FOUR DAYS OF COOL...CLOUDY...
AND OCCASIONALLY RAINY WEATHER. AIR TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED 80F AT
KEY WEST AND MARATHON FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE TUESDAY...AND DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES ARE UP IN THE MID 70S. KEY WEST DOPPLER RADAR SCANS SHOW
SHOWERS CONCENTRATED IN A NARROW ZONE FROM NEAR DRY TORTUGAS NATIONAL
PARK...SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CUBAN COAST. THIS ZONE OF ENHANCED
BOUNDARY-LAYER CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO HAVE PIVOTED CLOCKWISE DURING
THE LAST 24 HOURS OWING TO THE EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THE CONTINENTAL
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. IN ANY
CASE...THIS IS ALL THAT REMAINS OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT...THE
WESTERN FLANK OF WHICH HAS LARGELY DISSIPATED DUE TO AIR MASS
MODIFICATION.

FORECASTS WERE UPDATED EARLIER MAINLY TO ADJUST MARINE WINDS. STEADY
25-KNOT EASTERLY FLOW WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS HAS PERSISTED
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA REEFS...WHEREAS SURFACE WINDS HAVE
DECOUPLED FROM HIGHER MOMENTUM ALOFT OVER FLORIDA BAY AND THE EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS NOTION WAS CONFIRMED RECENTLY BY A
RELIABLE REPORT FROM A GULF FERRY VESSEL CAPTAIN TRANSITING TO KEY
WEST FROM FORT MYERS BEACH.
&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN TAKEN DOWN FOR FLORIDA BAY AND THE
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BEYOND FIVE FATHOMS. THE
ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN UP FOR HAWK CHANNEL...THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA...AND THE GULF WATERS AROUND DRY TORTUGAS AND REBECCA SHOAL
CHANNEL. FRESH TO STRONG EAST BREEZES WILL BLOW ACROSS FLORIDA KEYS
COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...BETWEEN AN EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND A SLOWLY-MOVING
WARM FRONT NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
EASTWARD TONIGHT...REACHING THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY.
FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES WILL PERSIST TONIGHT OVER MOST AREAS...WITH
SLACKENING BREEZES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE FLORIDA KEYS TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE TERMINALS AND THEIR VICINITY AT KEY
WEST AND MARATHON THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...NO MAJOR IMPACTS
TO CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED. EAST WINDS NEAR 12 KTS WILL BE OBSERVED
TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KTS...SHIFTING FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST
AFT 23/06Z.
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GMZ034-GMZ052-GMZ053-GMZ054-GMZ055-
     GMZ072-GMZ073-GMZ074-GMZ075.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 221740
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1240 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WINDS TURNED EAST EARLIER THIS MORNING ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...RESULTING IN THE WARM AND MOIST...MARITIME
TROPICAL AIR RETURNING TO THE AREA AFTER FOUR DAYS OF COOL...CLOUDY...
AND OCCASIONALLY RAINY WEATHER. AIR TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED 80F AT
KEY WEST AND MARATHON FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE TUESDAY...AND DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES ARE UP IN THE MID 70S. KEY WEST DOPPLER RADAR SCANS SHOW
SHOWERS CONCENTRATED IN A NARROW ZONE FROM NEAR DRY TORTUGAS NATIONAL
PARK...SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CUBAN COAST. THIS ZONE OF ENHANCED
BOUNDARY-LAYER CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO HAVE PIVOTED CLOCKWISE DURING
THE LAST 24 HOURS OWING TO THE EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THE CONTINENTAL
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. IN ANY
CASE...THIS IS ALL THAT REMAINS OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT...THE
WESTERN FLANK OF WHICH HAS LARGELY DISSIPATED DUE TO AIR MASS
MODIFICATION.

FORECASTS WERE UPDATED EARLIER MAINLY TO ADJUST MARINE WINDS. STEADY
25-KNOT EASTERLY FLOW WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS HAS PERSISTED
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA REEFS...WHEREAS SURFACE WINDS HAVE
DECOUPLED FROM HIGHER MOMENTUM ALOFT OVER FLORIDA BAY AND THE EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS NOTION WAS CONFIRMED RECENTLY BY A
RELIABLE REPORT FROM A GULF FERRY VESSEL CAPTAIN TRANSITING TO KEY
WEST FROM FORT MYERS BEACH.
&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN TAKEN DOWN FOR FLORIDA BAY AND THE
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BEYOND FIVE FATHOMS. THE
ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN UP FOR HAWK CHANNEL...THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA...AND THE GULF WATERS AROUND DRY TORTUGAS AND REBECCA SHOAL
CHANNEL. FRESH TO STRONG EAST BREEZES WILL BLOW ACROSS FLORIDA KEYS
COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...BETWEEN AN EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND A SLOWLY-MOVING
WARM FRONT NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
EASTWARD TONIGHT...REACHING THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY.
FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES WILL PERSIST TONIGHT OVER MOST AREAS...WITH
SLACKENING BREEZES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE FLORIDA KEYS TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE TERMINALS AND THEIR VICINITY AT KEY
WEST AND MARATHON THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...NO MAJOR IMPACTS
TO CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED. EAST WINDS NEAR 12 KTS WILL BE OBSERVED
TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KTS...SHIFTING FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST
AFT 23/06Z.
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GMZ034-GMZ052-GMZ053-GMZ054-GMZ055-
     GMZ072-GMZ073-GMZ074-GMZ075.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 221239
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
739 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.AVIATION...
FAST MOVING LIGHT SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE TERMINALS AT KEY WEST AND MARATHON
THROUGH MID-MORNING...CAUSING TEMPORARY MVFR CEILINGS. SURFACE WINDS WILL
GO FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST TO EAST NEAR 12 KTS...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING
20 KTS AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

$$

AVIATION...DEVANAS/KN

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 221239
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
739 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.AVIATION...
FAST MOVING LIGHT SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE TERMINALS AT KEY WEST AND MARATHON
THROUGH MID-MORNING...CAUSING TEMPORARY MVFR CEILINGS. SURFACE WINDS WILL
GO FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST TO EAST NEAR 12 KTS...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING
20 KTS AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

$$

AVIATION...DEVANAS/KN

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 220911
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
345 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...700-200 MB...LATEST
AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY AS OF 300 AM...OVERLAID WITH AVAILABLE MODEL
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO DEPICT LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW
ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS...WITH THE AXIS OF THE NEXT SHARPENING
LONGWAVE TROUGH POSITIONED FROM THE DAKOTAS SOUTHWARDS TO NORTHERN
OLD MEXICO. WEAK IMPULSES CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST IN THE 500-200 MB FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS. ACROSS THE TROPICS...THE CENTER OF A
REGIONAL SCALE MID AND UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS ANALYZED OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS...SURFACE TO 700 MB.
LATEST AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY AS OF 300 AM DEPICT THE CENTER OF A VERY
STRONG 1036 MB ANTICYCLONE LOCATED NEAR WASHINGTON DC. A NEARLY
STATIONARY SURFACE TO LOWER LEVEL WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY LOOSE FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
STRAITS THIS MORNING...WITH KEY WEST RADAR AND IR SATELLITES NOW
INDICATING THAT THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS WITH SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN A NARROWING OR DWINDLING BAND WEST THROUGH
SOUTH OF THE LOWER KEYS...AND SCATTERED MORE TYPICAL LOWER TOPPED
SHOWERS ARE PRESENT DUE TO LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND THESE
SHOWERS ARE MORE PROMINENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN FLORIDA
STRAITS...AS WELL AS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE KEYS ISLAND CHAIN.
LAST EVENINGS 00Z SOUNDING AT KEY WEST WHICH WAS UNCLIMATOLOGICALLY
WET FOR LATE NOVEMBER WITH GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT INDICATED ALONG THE
300 K SURFACE...AND A FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW UP TO 925 MB
VEERING TO BETWEEN EAST AND SOUTHEAST ABOVE THAT UP TO 850 MB...AND
TOTAL PWAT(PRECIPITABLE WATER) WAS AT 2.01 INCHES.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 300 AM...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY OWING TO
STRATUS/NIMBOSTRATUS/ALTOSTRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
BAND...WITH LOTS OF CUMULUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS IN THE
STRAITS. ACROSS THE ISLANDS...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S COMBINED WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS THAT WERE ONLY 1 OR TWO
DEGREES LOWER. C-MAN STATIONS ALONG THE FLORIDA REEF ARE 25 TO 30
KNOTS WITH ISOLATED GUSTS AROUND 35 KNOTS. THIS IS ALSO CONFIRMED IN
SHIP REPORTS.

.FORECASTS...A SOMEWHAT SLOWER PROGRESSION IS STILL INDICATED FROM
THE BREEZY/WINDY AND WETTER CONDITIONS TO A LIGHTER WIND REGIME WITH
MORE SUNSHINE ACCOMPANIED BY WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH MUCH LOWER RAIN CHANCES. FIRSTLY...WILL SEE DECELERATING MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY ALLOW THE
INTRODUCTION OF SOME DRIER AIR IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS. THAT BEING
SAID...AN EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG NEAR 1035 MB SURFACE CENTER OF A COLD
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE OUTER BANKS WILL SLOWLY EXIT STAGE RIGHT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL LOOSENING OF THE LOCAL
MSLP GRADIENT DURING SUNDAY...AS THE HI CENTER MOVES FARTHER
EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. ALTHOUGH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
SHOULD DISSOLVE THIS MORNING...00Z ECMWF AND GFS MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDING ILLUSTRATE STRONG SURFACE TO 850 MB CONVERGENCE AND SOME
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
FUEL GOOD COVERAGE OF LOWER TOPPED SHOWERS IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS ON
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS...ERGO WILL HOLD WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS TODAY...WITH MOST OF THE COVERAGE THIS MORNING.

DESPITE WEAKENING WINDS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TO 850 CONVERGENCE
TONIGHT...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS STILL PLENTIFUL AS INDICATED BY
THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WITH PWAT
ILLUSTRATED BETWEEN 1.50 AND 1.75 INCHES. SO...WILL CONTINUE
TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT. THEN ON SUNDAY...THE
STRONGEST RIDGING OVER FLORIDA BEGINS TO LOOSE ITS GROUP...AS THE
MAIN CENTER SLIDES FARTHER OUT INTO THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THEN
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
DARTS NORTHWARD UP THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...THE MOVING INTO CENTRAL CANADA MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO SWING INTO NORTH FLORIDA
MONDAY NIGHT...REACHING CENTRAL FLORIDA TUESDAY...AND THE KEYS
TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. SO OUR LOCAL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH AND VEER TO BETWEEN SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CLIMB. BUT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL REMAIN SLIGHT...ONLY AT 10 PERCENT...GIVEN
AN ABUNDANCE OF MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERING DOWN DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE
LEVELS...AS 500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS NEXT TROUGH.

THEREAFTER...WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SHARP LONGWAVE
TROUGH...FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...LOWER TO MIDDLE
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SURFACE COLD
FRONT...(FROM THE SURFACE TO 700 MB)...WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC
LIFT RETURNING AGAIN.SO WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON
MONDAY NIGHT...AND MIDDLE OF THE ROAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF ANOTHER A DEEP LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...ANOTHER STRONG 1030 TO 1035 MB PLUS RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD
ONCE AGAIN FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE TENNESSEE AND
OHIO VALLEYS...PUSHING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE KEYS BY
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEN CHILLIER AIR IS POISED
TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT DURING WEDNESDAY...AND IMPACT THE KEYS
THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK. GIVEN PWAT BELOW 1.00 INCH AND VERY DRY
CYCLONIC FLOW...HAVE REMOVED POPS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE GULF WATERS 20 TO 60 NM WEST OF MAINLAND MONROE...THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WATERS FROM REBECCA SHOAL TO THE DRY
TORTUGAS...HAWK CHANNEL...AND ALL OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THESE WATERS AGAIN TONIGHT. ACROSS
THE SHALLOWS OF FLORIDA BAY AND THE WATERS INSIDE THE FIVE FATHOM
LINE WILL STILL KEEP A CAUTION FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. A CAUTION WILL
REMAIN OM PLACE FOR HAWK CHANNEL AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS FOR AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY...IF NOT AN ADVISORY GIVEN ALREADY
DEVELOPED SEAS ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL LET DOWN
EVERYWHERE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY UNTIL THE NEXT FROPA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WHEN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS ALL WATERS AGAIN,

&&

.AVIATION...
FAST MOVING LIGHT SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE TERMINALS AT KEY WEST AND
MARATHON THROUGH DAYBREAK AND MAYBE FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER. THIS MAY
RESULT IN TEMPORARY MVFR CEILINGS. GIVEN THE PASSING NATURE OF THE
SHOWERS...A TEMPO GROUP WILL MOST LIKELY BE ADDED IN THE 12Z
TERMINAL FORECAST ISSUANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS
NEAR FL025 IF THE SHOWERS PERSIST. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM
THE EAST NORTHEAST NEAR 12 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

&&

.PRELIM POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  80  75  82  75  / 50  20  10  10
MARATHON  81  76  82  76  / 50  20  10  10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 22Z
GMZ042-044&GMZ055-054&GMZ072-075&GMZ033-034

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/GRIDS.........FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS...........DEVANAS

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST





















000
FXUS62 KKEY 220911
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
345 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...700-200 MB...LATEST
AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY AS OF 300 AM...OVERLAID WITH AVAILABLE MODEL
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO DEPICT LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW
ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS...WITH THE AXIS OF THE NEXT SHARPENING
LONGWAVE TROUGH POSITIONED FROM THE DAKOTAS SOUTHWARDS TO NORTHERN
OLD MEXICO. WEAK IMPULSES CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST IN THE 500-200 MB FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS. ACROSS THE TROPICS...THE CENTER OF A
REGIONAL SCALE MID AND UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS ANALYZED OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS...SURFACE TO 700 MB.
LATEST AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY AS OF 300 AM DEPICT THE CENTER OF A VERY
STRONG 1036 MB ANTICYCLONE LOCATED NEAR WASHINGTON DC. A NEARLY
STATIONARY SURFACE TO LOWER LEVEL WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY LOOSE FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
STRAITS THIS MORNING...WITH KEY WEST RADAR AND IR SATELLITES NOW
INDICATING THAT THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS WITH SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN A NARROWING OR DWINDLING BAND WEST THROUGH
SOUTH OF THE LOWER KEYS...AND SCATTERED MORE TYPICAL LOWER TOPPED
SHOWERS ARE PRESENT DUE TO LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND THESE
SHOWERS ARE MORE PROMINENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN FLORIDA
STRAITS...AS WELL AS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE KEYS ISLAND CHAIN.
LAST EVENINGS 00Z SOUNDING AT KEY WEST WHICH WAS UNCLIMATOLOGICALLY
WET FOR LATE NOVEMBER WITH GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT INDICATED ALONG THE
300 K SURFACE...AND A FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW UP TO 925 MB
VEERING TO BETWEEN EAST AND SOUTHEAST ABOVE THAT UP TO 850 MB...AND
TOTAL PWAT(PRECIPITABLE WATER) WAS AT 2.01 INCHES.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 300 AM...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY OWING TO
STRATUS/NIMBOSTRATUS/ALTOSTRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
BAND...WITH LOTS OF CUMULUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS IN THE
STRAITS. ACROSS THE ISLANDS...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S COMBINED WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS THAT WERE ONLY 1 OR TWO
DEGREES LOWER. C-MAN STATIONS ALONG THE FLORIDA REEF ARE 25 TO 30
KNOTS WITH ISOLATED GUSTS AROUND 35 KNOTS. THIS IS ALSO CONFIRMED IN
SHIP REPORTS.

.FORECASTS...A SOMEWHAT SLOWER PROGRESSION IS STILL INDICATED FROM
THE BREEZY/WINDY AND WETTER CONDITIONS TO A LIGHTER WIND REGIME WITH
MORE SUNSHINE ACCOMPANIED BY WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH MUCH LOWER RAIN CHANCES. FIRSTLY...WILL SEE DECELERATING MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY ALLOW THE
INTRODUCTION OF SOME DRIER AIR IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS. THAT BEING
SAID...AN EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG NEAR 1035 MB SURFACE CENTER OF A COLD
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE OUTER BANKS WILL SLOWLY EXIT STAGE RIGHT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL LOOSENING OF THE LOCAL
MSLP GRADIENT DURING SUNDAY...AS THE HI CENTER MOVES FARTHER
EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. ALTHOUGH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
SHOULD DISSOLVE THIS MORNING...00Z ECMWF AND GFS MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDING ILLUSTRATE STRONG SURFACE TO 850 MB CONVERGENCE AND SOME
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
FUEL GOOD COVERAGE OF LOWER TOPPED SHOWERS IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS ON
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS...ERGO WILL HOLD WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS TODAY...WITH MOST OF THE COVERAGE THIS MORNING.

DESPITE WEAKENING WINDS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TO 850 CONVERGENCE
TONIGHT...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS STILL PLENTIFUL AS INDICATED BY
THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WITH PWAT
ILLUSTRATED BETWEEN 1.50 AND 1.75 INCHES. SO...WILL CONTINUE
TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT. THEN ON SUNDAY...THE
STRONGEST RIDGING OVER FLORIDA BEGINS TO LOOSE ITS GROUP...AS THE
MAIN CENTER SLIDES FARTHER OUT INTO THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THEN
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
DARTS NORTHWARD UP THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...THE MOVING INTO CENTRAL CANADA MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO SWING INTO NORTH FLORIDA
MONDAY NIGHT...REACHING CENTRAL FLORIDA TUESDAY...AND THE KEYS
TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. SO OUR LOCAL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH AND VEER TO BETWEEN SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CLIMB. BUT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL REMAIN SLIGHT...ONLY AT 10 PERCENT...GIVEN
AN ABUNDANCE OF MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERING DOWN DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE
LEVELS...AS 500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS NEXT TROUGH.

THEREAFTER...WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SHARP LONGWAVE
TROUGH...FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...LOWER TO MIDDLE
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SURFACE COLD
FRONT...(FROM THE SURFACE TO 700 MB)...WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC
LIFT RETURNING AGAIN.SO WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON
MONDAY NIGHT...AND MIDDLE OF THE ROAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF ANOTHER A DEEP LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...ANOTHER STRONG 1030 TO 1035 MB PLUS RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD
ONCE AGAIN FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE TENNESSEE AND
OHIO VALLEYS...PUSHING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE KEYS BY
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEN CHILLIER AIR IS POISED
TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT DURING WEDNESDAY...AND IMPACT THE KEYS
THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK. GIVEN PWAT BELOW 1.00 INCH AND VERY DRY
CYCLONIC FLOW...HAVE REMOVED POPS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE GULF WATERS 20 TO 60 NM WEST OF MAINLAND MONROE...THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WATERS FROM REBECCA SHOAL TO THE DRY
TORTUGAS...HAWK CHANNEL...AND ALL OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THESE WATERS AGAIN TONIGHT. ACROSS
THE SHALLOWS OF FLORIDA BAY AND THE WATERS INSIDE THE FIVE FATHOM
LINE WILL STILL KEEP A CAUTION FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. A CAUTION WILL
REMAIN OM PLACE FOR HAWK CHANNEL AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS FOR AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY...IF NOT AN ADVISORY GIVEN ALREADY
DEVELOPED SEAS ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL LET DOWN
EVERYWHERE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY UNTIL THE NEXT FROPA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WHEN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS ALL WATERS AGAIN,

&&

.AVIATION...
FAST MOVING LIGHT SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE TERMINALS AT KEY WEST AND
MARATHON THROUGH DAYBREAK AND MAYBE FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER. THIS MAY
RESULT IN TEMPORARY MVFR CEILINGS. GIVEN THE PASSING NATURE OF THE
SHOWERS...A TEMPO GROUP WILL MOST LIKELY BE ADDED IN THE 12Z
TERMINAL FORECAST ISSUANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS
NEAR FL025 IF THE SHOWERS PERSIST. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM
THE EAST NORTHEAST NEAR 12 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

&&

.PRELIM POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  80  75  82  75  / 50  20  10  10
MARATHON  81  76  82  76  / 50  20  10  10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 22Z
GMZ042-044&GMZ055-054&GMZ072-075&GMZ033-034

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/GRIDS.........FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS...........DEVANAS

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST




















000
FXUS62 KKEY 220855
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
345 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...700-200 MB...LATEST
AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY AS OF 300 AM...OVERLAID WITH AVAILABLE MODEL
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO DEPICT LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW
ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS...WITH THE AXIS OF THE NEXT SHARPENING
LONGWAVE TROUGH POSITIONED FROM THE DAKOTAS SOUTHWARDS TO NORTHERN
OLD MEXICO. WEAK IMPULSES CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST IN THE 500-200 MB FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS. ACROSS THE TROPICS...THE CENTER OF A
REGIONAL SCALE MID AND UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS ANALYZED OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS...SURFACE TO 700 MB.
LATEST AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY AS OF 300 AM DEPICT THE CENTER OF A VERY
STRONG 1036 MB ANTICYCLONE LOCATED NEAR WASHINGTON DC. A NEARLY
STATIONARY SURFACE TO LOWER LEVEL WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY LOOSE FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
STRAITS THIS MORNING...WITH KEY WEST RADAR AND IR SATELLITES NOW
INDICATING THAT THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS WITH SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN A NARROWING OR DWINDLING BAND WEST THROUGH
SOUTH OF THE LOWER KEYS...AND SCATTERED MORE TYPICAL LOWER TOPPED
SHOWERS ARE PRESENT DUE TO LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND THESE
SHOWERS ARE MORE PROMINENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN FLORIDA
STRAITS...AS WELL AS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE KEYS ISLAND CHAIN.
LAST EVENINGS 00Z SOUNDING AT KEY WEST WHICH WAS UNCLIMATOLOGICALLY
WET FOR LATE NOVEMBER WITH GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT INDICATED ALONG THE
300 K SURFACE...AND A FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW UP TO 925 MB
VEERING TO BETWEEN EAST AND SOUTHEAST ABOVE THAT UP TO 850 MB...AND
TOTAL PWAT(PRECIPITABLE WATER) WAS AT 2.01 INCHES.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 300 AM...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY OWING TO
STRATUS/NIMBOSTRATUS/ALTOSTRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
BAND...WITH LOTS OF CUMULUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS IN THE
STRAITS. ACROSS THE ISLANDS...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S COMBINED WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS THAT WERE ONLY 1 OR TWO
DEGREES LOWER. C-MAN STATIONS ALONG THE FLORIDA REEF ARE 25 TO 30
KNOTS WITH ISOLATED GUSTS AROUND 35 KNOTS. THIS IS ALSO CONFIRMED IN
SHIP REPORTS.

.FORECASTS...A SOMEWHAT SLOWER PROGRESSION IS STILL INDICATED FROM
THE BREEZY/WINDY AND WETTER CONDITIONS TO A LIGHTER WIND REGIME WITH
MORE SUNSHINE ACCOMPANIED BY WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH MUCH LOWER RAIN CHANCES. AS A RESULT...WILL SEE DECELERATING
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY
ALLOW THE INTRODUCTION OF SOME DRIER AIR IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS. THAT
BEING SAID...AN EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG NEAR 1035 MB SURFACE CENTER OF
A COLD ANTICYCLONE OVER THE OUTER BANKS WILL SLOWLY EXIT STAGE RIGHT
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL LOOSENING OF THE
LOCAL MSLP GRADIENT DURING SUNDAY...AS THE HI CENTER MOVES FARTHER
EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. ALTHOUGH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
SHOULD DISSOLVE THIS MORNING...00Z ECMWF AND GFS MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDING ILLUSTRATE STRONG SURFACE TO 850 MB CONVERGENCE AND SOME
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
FUEL GOOD COVERAGE OF LOWER TOPPED SHOWERS IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS ON
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS...ERGO WILL HOLD WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS TODAY...WITH MOST OF THE COVERAGE THIS MORNING.

DESPITE WEAKENING WINDS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TO 850 CONVERGENCE
TONIGHT...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS STILL PLENTIFUL AS INDICATED BY
THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WITH PWAT
ILLUSTRATED BETWEEN 1.50 AND 1.75 INCHES. SO...WILL CONTINUE
TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT. THEN ON SUNDAY...THE
STRONGEST RIDGING OVER FLORIDA BEGINS TO LOOSE ITS GROUP...AS THE
MAIN CENTER SLIDES FARTHER OUT INTO THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THEN
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
DARTS NORTHWARD UP THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...THE MOVING INTO CENTRAL CANADA MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO SWING INTO NORTH FLORIDA
MONDAY NIGHT...REACHING CENTRAL FLORIDA TUESDAY...AND THE KEYS
TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. SO OUR LOCAL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH AND VEER TO BETWEEN SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CLIMB. BUT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL REMAIN SLIGHT...ONLY AT 10 PERCENT...GIVEN
AN ABUNDANCE OF MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERING DOWN DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE
LEVELS...AS 500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS NEXT TROUGH.

THEREAFTER...WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SHARP LONGWAVE
TROUGH...FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...LOWER TO MIDDLE
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SURFACE COLD
FRONT...(FROM THE SURFACE TO 700 MB)...WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC
LIFT RETURNING AGAIN.SO WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON
MONDAY NIGHT...AND MIDDLE OF THE ROAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF ANOTHER A DEEP LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...ANOTHER STRONG 1030 TO 1035 MB PLUS RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD
ONCE AGAIN FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE TENNESSEE AND
OHIO VALLEYS...PUSHING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE KEYS BY
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEN CHILLIER AIR IS POISED
TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT DURING WEDNESDAY...AND IMPACT THE KEYS
THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK. GIVEN PWAT BELOW 1.00 INCH AND VERY DRY
CYCLONIC FLOW...HAVE REMOVED POPS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE GULF WATERS 20 TO 60 NM WEST OF MAINLAND MONROE...THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WATERS FROM REBECCA SHOAL TO THE DRY
TORTUGAS...HAWK CHANNEL...AND ALL OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THESE WATERS AGAIN TONIGHT. ACROSS
THE SHALLOWS OF FLORIDA BAY AND THE WATERS INSIDE THE FIVE FATHOM
LINE WILL STILL KEEP A CAUTION FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. A CAUTION WILL
REMAIN OM PLACE FOR HAWK CHANNEL AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS FOR AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY...IF NOT AN ADVISORY GIVEN ALREADY
DEVELOPED SEAS ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL LET DOWN
EVERYWHERE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY UNTIL THE NEXT FROPA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WHEN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS ALL WATERS AGAIN,

&&

.AVIATION...
FAST MOVING LIGHT SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE TERMINALS AT KEY WEST AND
MARATHON THROUGH DAYBREAK AND MAYBE FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER. THIS MAY
RESULT IN TEMPORARY MVFR CEILINGS. GIVEN THE PASSING NATURE OF THE
SHOWERS...A TEMPO GROUP WILL MOST LIKELY BE ADDED IN THE 12Z
TERMINAL FORECAST ISSUANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS
NEAR FL025 IF THE SHOWERS PERSIST. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM
THE EAST NORTHEAST NEAR 12 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

&&

.PRELIM POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  80  75  82  75  / 50  20  10  10
MARATHON  81  76  82  76  / 50  20  10  10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 22Z
GMZ042-044&GMZ055-054&GMZ072-075&GMZ033-034

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/GRIDS.........FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS...........DEVANAS

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST

















000
FXUS62 KKEY 220855
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
345 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...700-200 MB...LATEST
AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY AS OF 300 AM...OVERLAID WITH AVAILABLE MODEL
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO DEPICT LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW
ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS...WITH THE AXIS OF THE NEXT SHARPENING
LONGWAVE TROUGH POSITIONED FROM THE DAKOTAS SOUTHWARDS TO NORTHERN
OLD MEXICO. WEAK IMPULSES CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST IN THE 500-200 MB FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS. ACROSS THE TROPICS...THE CENTER OF A
REGIONAL SCALE MID AND UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS ANALYZED OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS...SURFACE TO 700 MB.
LATEST AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY AS OF 300 AM DEPICT THE CENTER OF A VERY
STRONG 1036 MB ANTICYCLONE LOCATED NEAR WASHINGTON DC. A NEARLY
STATIONARY SURFACE TO LOWER LEVEL WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY LOOSE FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
STRAITS THIS MORNING...WITH KEY WEST RADAR AND IR SATELLITES NOW
INDICATING THAT THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS WITH SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN A NARROWING OR DWINDLING BAND WEST THROUGH
SOUTH OF THE LOWER KEYS...AND SCATTERED MORE TYPICAL LOWER TOPPED
SHOWERS ARE PRESENT DUE TO LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND THESE
SHOWERS ARE MORE PROMINENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN FLORIDA
STRAITS...AS WELL AS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE KEYS ISLAND CHAIN.
LAST EVENINGS 00Z SOUNDING AT KEY WEST WHICH WAS UNCLIMATOLOGICALLY
WET FOR LATE NOVEMBER WITH GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT INDICATED ALONG THE
300 K SURFACE...AND A FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW UP TO 925 MB
VEERING TO BETWEEN EAST AND SOUTHEAST ABOVE THAT UP TO 850 MB...AND
TOTAL PWAT(PRECIPITABLE WATER) WAS AT 2.01 INCHES.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 300 AM...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY OWING TO
STRATUS/NIMBOSTRATUS/ALTOSTRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
BAND...WITH LOTS OF CUMULUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS IN THE
STRAITS. ACROSS THE ISLANDS...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S COMBINED WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS THAT WERE ONLY 1 OR TWO
DEGREES LOWER. C-MAN STATIONS ALONG THE FLORIDA REEF ARE 25 TO 30
KNOTS WITH ISOLATED GUSTS AROUND 35 KNOTS. THIS IS ALSO CONFIRMED IN
SHIP REPORTS.

.FORECASTS...A SOMEWHAT SLOWER PROGRESSION IS STILL INDICATED FROM
THE BREEZY/WINDY AND WETTER CONDITIONS TO A LIGHTER WIND REGIME WITH
MORE SUNSHINE ACCOMPANIED BY WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH MUCH LOWER RAIN CHANCES. AS A RESULT...WILL SEE DECELERATING
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY
ALLOW THE INTRODUCTION OF SOME DRIER AIR IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS. THAT
BEING SAID...AN EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG NEAR 1035 MB SURFACE CENTER OF
A COLD ANTICYCLONE OVER THE OUTER BANKS WILL SLOWLY EXIT STAGE RIGHT
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL LOOSENING OF THE
LOCAL MSLP GRADIENT DURING SUNDAY...AS THE HI CENTER MOVES FARTHER
EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. ALTHOUGH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
SHOULD DISSOLVE THIS MORNING...00Z ECMWF AND GFS MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDING ILLUSTRATE STRONG SURFACE TO 850 MB CONVERGENCE AND SOME
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
FUEL GOOD COVERAGE OF LOWER TOPPED SHOWERS IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS ON
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS...ERGO WILL HOLD WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS TODAY...WITH MOST OF THE COVERAGE THIS MORNING.

DESPITE WEAKENING WINDS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TO 850 CONVERGENCE
TONIGHT...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS STILL PLENTIFUL AS INDICATED BY
THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WITH PWAT
ILLUSTRATED BETWEEN 1.50 AND 1.75 INCHES. SO...WILL CONTINUE
TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT. THEN ON SUNDAY...THE
STRONGEST RIDGING OVER FLORIDA BEGINS TO LOOSE ITS GROUP...AS THE
MAIN CENTER SLIDES FARTHER OUT INTO THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THEN
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
DARTS NORTHWARD UP THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...THE MOVING INTO CENTRAL CANADA MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO SWING INTO NORTH FLORIDA
MONDAY NIGHT...REACHING CENTRAL FLORIDA TUESDAY...AND THE KEYS
TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. SO OUR LOCAL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH AND VEER TO BETWEEN SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CLIMB. BUT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL REMAIN SLIGHT...ONLY AT 10 PERCENT...GIVEN
AN ABUNDANCE OF MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERING DOWN DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE
LEVELS...AS 500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS NEXT TROUGH.

THEREAFTER...WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SHARP LONGWAVE
TROUGH...FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...LOWER TO MIDDLE
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SURFACE COLD
FRONT...(FROM THE SURFACE TO 700 MB)...WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC
LIFT RETURNING AGAIN.SO WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON
MONDAY NIGHT...AND MIDDLE OF THE ROAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF ANOTHER A DEEP LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...ANOTHER STRONG 1030 TO 1035 MB PLUS RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD
ONCE AGAIN FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE TENNESSEE AND
OHIO VALLEYS...PUSHING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE KEYS BY
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEN CHILLIER AIR IS POISED
TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT DURING WEDNESDAY...AND IMPACT THE KEYS
THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK. GIVEN PWAT BELOW 1.00 INCH AND VERY DRY
CYCLONIC FLOW...HAVE REMOVED POPS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE GULF WATERS 20 TO 60 NM WEST OF MAINLAND MONROE...THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WATERS FROM REBECCA SHOAL TO THE DRY
TORTUGAS...HAWK CHANNEL...AND ALL OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THESE WATERS AGAIN TONIGHT. ACROSS
THE SHALLOWS OF FLORIDA BAY AND THE WATERS INSIDE THE FIVE FATHOM
LINE WILL STILL KEEP A CAUTION FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. A CAUTION WILL
REMAIN OM PLACE FOR HAWK CHANNEL AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS FOR AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY...IF NOT AN ADVISORY GIVEN ALREADY
DEVELOPED SEAS ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL LET DOWN
EVERYWHERE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY UNTIL THE NEXT FROPA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WHEN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS ALL WATERS AGAIN,

&&

.AVIATION...
FAST MOVING LIGHT SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE TERMINALS AT KEY WEST AND
MARATHON THROUGH DAYBREAK AND MAYBE FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER. THIS MAY
RESULT IN TEMPORARY MVFR CEILINGS. GIVEN THE PASSING NATURE OF THE
SHOWERS...A TEMPO GROUP WILL MOST LIKELY BE ADDED IN THE 12Z
TERMINAL FORECAST ISSUANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS
NEAR FL025 IF THE SHOWERS PERSIST. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM
THE EAST NORTHEAST NEAR 12 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

&&

.PRELIM POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  80  75  82  75  / 50  20  10  10
MARATHON  81  76  82  76  / 50  20  10  10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 22Z
GMZ042-044&GMZ055-054&GMZ072-075&GMZ033-034

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/GRIDS.........FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS...........DEVANAS

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 220253
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
953 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN
PERSISTENT IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTH OF THE LOWER KEYS TO THE NORTH
CUBAN COAST. LIGHTER AND MORE SEPARATED SHOWERS/RAIN POCKETS ARE
STRETCHED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE KEYS SERVICE AREA. WINDS REMAIN
STRONG ACROSS THE MARINE AREA...AND CONTINUE TO GUST ABOVE 25 MPH
ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND TEMPERATURES ARE
HOLDING STEADY IN THE LOWER 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE IS SETTLING NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...WITH A
LIFTING FRONT BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE NEARBY. THE EVENING LOCAL
SOUNDING SHOWS A SEASONABLY WET COLUMN AND STRONGER VEERED WINDS
EXTENDING TO WELL ABOVE 10000 FEET. WE EXPECT TO SEE ON-AND-OFF RAINS
OR SHOWERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE
ISLAND CHAIN...SOME THUNDER IS EXPECTED WELL OFFSHORE AS WELL. THE
AFTERNOON ZONE FORECAST HAS THE EXPECTED CONDITIONS COVERED WELL...SO
AT THIS POINT...THE ONLY REASON TO SEND AN AMENDMENT WOULD BE TO
ADJUST THE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...THOSE READINGS ARE PROBABLY AS LOW
AS THEY ARE GOING TO GO. SO NO ZONE UPDATE IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES ACROSS ALL WATERS SURROUNDING
THE FLORIDA KEYS. THERE IS NO REASON TO MAKE ANY CHANGES ON THE
LATE EVENING MARINE UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
...22/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...SHOWERS HAVE MAINLY PULLED SOUTH OF THE
ISLAND TERMINALS...THOUGH PASSING SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT SHOULD GENERALLY BECOME SLIGHTLY LESS INTENSE AFTER 18Z
SATURDAY.


&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........04
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....MSB
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 220253
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
953 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN
PERSISTENT IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTH OF THE LOWER KEYS TO THE NORTH
CUBAN COAST. LIGHTER AND MORE SEPARATED SHOWERS/RAIN POCKETS ARE
STRETCHED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE KEYS SERVICE AREA. WINDS REMAIN
STRONG ACROSS THE MARINE AREA...AND CONTINUE TO GUST ABOVE 25 MPH
ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND TEMPERATURES ARE
HOLDING STEADY IN THE LOWER 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE IS SETTLING NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...WITH A
LIFTING FRONT BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE NEARBY. THE EVENING LOCAL
SOUNDING SHOWS A SEASONABLY WET COLUMN AND STRONGER VEERED WINDS
EXTENDING TO WELL ABOVE 10000 FEET. WE EXPECT TO SEE ON-AND-OFF RAINS
OR SHOWERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE
ISLAND CHAIN...SOME THUNDER IS EXPECTED WELL OFFSHORE AS WELL. THE
AFTERNOON ZONE FORECAST HAS THE EXPECTED CONDITIONS COVERED WELL...SO
AT THIS POINT...THE ONLY REASON TO SEND AN AMENDMENT WOULD BE TO
ADJUST THE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...THOSE READINGS ARE PROBABLY AS LOW
AS THEY ARE GOING TO GO. SO NO ZONE UPDATE IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES ACROSS ALL WATERS SURROUNDING
THE FLORIDA KEYS. THERE IS NO REASON TO MAKE ANY CHANGES ON THE
LATE EVENING MARINE UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
...22/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...SHOWERS HAVE MAINLY PULLED SOUTH OF THE
ISLAND TERMINALS...THOUGH PASSING SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT SHOULD GENERALLY BECOME SLIGHTLY LESS INTENSE AFTER 18Z
SATURDAY.


&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........04
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....MSB
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 212030
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
330 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY HAS BEEN CLOUDY...WINDY...AND RAINY ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. CURRENTLY...AIR TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE
LOWER 70S...WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES NEAR 70F. A SLOW-MOVING WARM
FRONT LIES JUST SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS OVER THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DISCRETE CONVECTION CELLS...SOME
EXHIBITING OCCASIONAL CYCLONIC SHEAR/ROTATION...HAVE POPULATED THE
NARROW FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM. A FEW
SHORT-LIVED MINI SUPERCELLS HAVE BEEN DETECTED AS WELL. STRATIFORM
RAIN HAS PREVAILED NORTH AND WEST OF THE FRONTAL ZONE...ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS...FLORIDA BAY...AND THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO.

THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION INVOLVES AN ISENTROPIC LIFT REGIME ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE...AND ENHANCED LOCALLY BY THE HORIZONTAL
JUXTAPOSITION OF THE WARM GULF STREAM BOUNDARY LAYER AND THE COOLER
MODIFIED CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. A
FAVORABLE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS PROVIDED BY
ACCELERATION OF STRONG WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS INTO A LARGE-SCALE JET
STREAM SOUTH OF THE POLAR TROUGH CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE UNITED STATES.

FOR TONIGHT -- AN INTERESTING EVOLUTION IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED. FIRST...NORTHEAST WINDS...WHICH HAVE BEEN STEADY AT 22-25
KNOTS AND GUSTING FREQUENTLY 27-30 KNOTS OVER MOST LOCAL MARINE
ZONES TODAY...PROBABLY WILL SURGE EVEN HIGHER THIS EVENING AS THE
CONTINENTAL POLAR SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES ACTUALLY INTENSIFIES BENEATH AN APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE
RIDGE ALOFT. NEXT...THE SURFACE WARM FRONT CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SHOULD SLOWLY MIGRATE WESTWARD...WITH MARITIME
TROPICAL AIR BLEEDING INTO THE KEYS OVERNIGHT. IN FACT...AIR
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS LIKELY WILL RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SURFACE
WINDS BEGIN VEERING FROM NORTHEAST TO EAST. THIRD...AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE WARM FRONTAL MIGRATION...LATER THIS EVENING...THE APPROACH OF
MARITIME TROPICAL AIR AND POSSIBLE MID-70S DEWPOINTS OVER FLORIDA
BAY/GULF WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S MAY INDUCE LOW CLOUD
CEILINGS AND POTENTIAL AREAS OF MIST...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF THE
KEYS. FINALLY...SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR
HIGH TIDE LATER THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY IF THE ONSET OF EASTERLY
WIND FLOW COINCIDES WITH THE NORMAL MONTHLY HIGH TIDES.

FOR SATURDAY -- SIGNIFICANT WARMING IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHER CLOUD
CEILINGS...LESS STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION...AND REDUCED RAIN COVERAGE.
WINDY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY -- A WARM AND HUMID PERIOD IS EXPECTED
WITH ONLY SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES. A WINDOW OF GENTLE SOUTHEAST OR
SOUTH BREEZES LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO SET IN SOMETIME SUNDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND -- THE NEXT COLD FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT MAY ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A NORTHERLY WIND SURGE AND COOL-DOWN. STILL
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.
&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL ZONES. STRONG NORTHEAST
TO EAST BREEZES WILL BLOW ACROSS FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT...BETWEEN AN EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES AND A SLOWLY-MOVING WARM FRONT OVER THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...REACHING THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY. FRESH TO
STRONG BREEZES WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SLACKENING
BREEZES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
FLORIDA KEYS TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CONDS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE AT BOTH TERMINALS...WITH
OCCASIONAL IFR/MVFR 006-012 CIGS THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL AT LEAST
21/23Z...CAUSING BRIEF 3-5 SM VISIBILITY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM
THE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH WIND GUSTS AT AROUND 20 KNOTS...
INCREASING OVERNIGHT TO AROUND 25 KTS AND GOING DOWN TO 20 KTS AFT
22/18Z AND FROM THE EAST. IMPROVEMENTS IN CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AFT
22/18Z.
&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE...NOVEMBER 21...IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...
IN 1873...THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 52F WAS RECORDED.
TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872. ALSO IN
1923...THE DAILY RECORD RAINFALL OF 0.69 INCHES WAS RECORDED.
&&

.PRELIM POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  72  80  76  82 / 60 40 30 10
MARATHON  72  80  76  82 / 60 40 30 10
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GMZ031-GMZ032-GMZ033-GMZ034-GMZ035-
     GMZ042-GMZ043-GMZ044-GMZ052-GMZ053-GMZ054-GMZ055-GMZ072-
     GMZ073-GMZ074-GMZ075.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 212030
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
330 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY HAS BEEN CLOUDY...WINDY...AND RAINY ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. CURRENTLY...AIR TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE
LOWER 70S...WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES NEAR 70F. A SLOW-MOVING WARM
FRONT LIES JUST SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS OVER THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DISCRETE CONVECTION CELLS...SOME
EXHIBITING OCCASIONAL CYCLONIC SHEAR/ROTATION...HAVE POPULATED THE
NARROW FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM. A FEW
SHORT-LIVED MINI SUPERCELLS HAVE BEEN DETECTED AS WELL. STRATIFORM
RAIN HAS PREVAILED NORTH AND WEST OF THE FRONTAL ZONE...ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS...FLORIDA BAY...AND THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO.

THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION INVOLVES AN ISENTROPIC LIFT REGIME ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE...AND ENHANCED LOCALLY BY THE HORIZONTAL
JUXTAPOSITION OF THE WARM GULF STREAM BOUNDARY LAYER AND THE COOLER
MODIFIED CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. A
FAVORABLE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS PROVIDED BY
ACCELERATION OF STRONG WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS INTO A LARGE-SCALE JET
STREAM SOUTH OF THE POLAR TROUGH CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE UNITED STATES.

FOR TONIGHT -- AN INTERESTING EVOLUTION IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED. FIRST...NORTHEAST WINDS...WHICH HAVE BEEN STEADY AT 22-25
KNOTS AND GUSTING FREQUENTLY 27-30 KNOTS OVER MOST LOCAL MARINE
ZONES TODAY...PROBABLY WILL SURGE EVEN HIGHER THIS EVENING AS THE
CONTINENTAL POLAR SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES ACTUALLY INTENSIFIES BENEATH AN APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE
RIDGE ALOFT. NEXT...THE SURFACE WARM FRONT CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SHOULD SLOWLY MIGRATE WESTWARD...WITH MARITIME
TROPICAL AIR BLEEDING INTO THE KEYS OVERNIGHT. IN FACT...AIR
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS LIKELY WILL RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SURFACE
WINDS BEGIN VEERING FROM NORTHEAST TO EAST. THIRD...AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE WARM FRONTAL MIGRATION...LATER THIS EVENING...THE APPROACH OF
MARITIME TROPICAL AIR AND POSSIBLE MID-70S DEWPOINTS OVER FLORIDA
BAY/GULF WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S MAY INDUCE LOW CLOUD
CEILINGS AND POTENTIAL AREAS OF MIST...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF THE
KEYS. FINALLY...SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR
HIGH TIDE LATER THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY IF THE ONSET OF EASTERLY
WIND FLOW COINCIDES WITH THE NORMAL MONTHLY HIGH TIDES.

FOR SATURDAY -- SIGNIFICANT WARMING IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHER CLOUD
CEILINGS...LESS STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION...AND REDUCED RAIN COVERAGE.
WINDY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY -- A WARM AND HUMID PERIOD IS EXPECTED
WITH ONLY SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES. A WINDOW OF GENTLE SOUTHEAST OR
SOUTH BREEZES LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO SET IN SOMETIME SUNDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND -- THE NEXT COLD FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT MAY ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A NORTHERLY WIND SURGE AND COOL-DOWN. STILL
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.
&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL ZONES. STRONG NORTHEAST
TO EAST BREEZES WILL BLOW ACROSS FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT...BETWEEN AN EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES AND A SLOWLY-MOVING WARM FRONT OVER THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...REACHING THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY. FRESH TO
STRONG BREEZES WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SLACKENING
BREEZES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
FLORIDA KEYS TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CONDS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE AT BOTH TERMINALS...WITH
OCCASIONAL IFR/MVFR 006-012 CIGS THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL AT LEAST
21/23Z...CAUSING BRIEF 3-5 SM VISIBILITY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM
THE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH WIND GUSTS AT AROUND 20 KNOTS...
INCREASING OVERNIGHT TO AROUND 25 KTS AND GOING DOWN TO 20 KTS AFT
22/18Z AND FROM THE EAST. IMPROVEMENTS IN CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AFT
22/18Z.
&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE...NOVEMBER 21...IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...
IN 1873...THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 52F WAS RECORDED.
TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872. ALSO IN
1923...THE DAILY RECORD RAINFALL OF 0.69 INCHES WAS RECORDED.
&&

.PRELIM POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  72  80  76  82 / 60 40 30 10
MARATHON  72  80  76  82 / 60 40 30 10
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GMZ031-GMZ032-GMZ033-GMZ034-GMZ035-
     GMZ042-GMZ043-GMZ044-GMZ052-GMZ053-GMZ054-GMZ055-GMZ072-
     GMZ073-GMZ074-GMZ075.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 211611
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1111 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE FLORIDA KEYS ARE THE SCENE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN THIS
MORNING. CURRENTLY...AIR TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING STEADY IN THE LOWER
70S IN MOST FLORIDA KEYS ISLAND COMMUNITIES...WITH DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND 70F. SKIES ARE CLOUDY WITH INTERMITTENT
LIGHT RAIN IN MANY LOCATIONS. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST BREEZES
PERSIST AS WELL.

AN UPPER-LEVEL COMPOSITE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING REVEALS A LARGE AND
DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN...A PERSISTENT LONG-
WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE UNITED STATES... AND
A BELT OF STRONG WESTERLIES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA
PENINSULA. AT LOW LEVELS...A NEARLY STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE WAS
ANALYZED FROM THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND
STRAITS OF FLORIDA...TO NEAR THE NORTHERN YUCATAN. ASSOCIATED
BAROCLINICITY WAS GREATEST IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL ZONE OVER
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA/SOUTHERN FLORIDA OWING TO ITS PROXIMITY TO
BOTH THE GULF STREAM AND THE COOLER CONTINENTAL AIR WHICH HAS BEEN
ABLE TO MIGRATE FARTHER SOUTHWARD DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. FURTHER
ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE ISENTROPIC ASCENT ONGOING IN THE VICINITY AND
NORTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AT LOW
ALTITUDES...WEAKENING AND VEERING SUBSTANTIALLY ABOVE. IN ADDITION...
FAIRLY STEEP GRADIENTS OF BOTH PRECIPITABLE WATER AND POTENTIAL
BUOYANCY EXIST ACROSS THE SERVICE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
SUBSEQUENTLY...WE ARE DETECTING SEVERAL PRECIPITATION AND CONVECTIVE
MODES ON DOPPLER RADAR ACROSS THE SERVICE AREA...RANGING FROM LIGHT
STRATIFORM RAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHERE
POTENTIAL BUOYANCY VALUES ARE MUCH HIGHER. IN FACT...SEVERAL DISCRETE
CONVECTION CELLS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITH CYCLONIC SHEAR COUPLETS...
ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHORT-LIVED MINI SUPERCELLS.

THE LOCAL FORECAST DIGITAL DATABASE AND DERIVED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED. A CLOUDY...WINDY...COOL...AND SOMEWHAT RAINY DAY WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS...WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS AND GUSTIER
WINDS TO THE SOUTH OVER HAWK CHANNEL...THE FLORIDA REEFS...AND THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. HEAVIER DOWNPOURS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA
KEYS TONIGHT...AS THE FRONTAL ZONE EDGES CLOSER.
&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL ZONES. STRONG NORTHEAST
TO EAST BREEZES AND WELL-DEVELOPED SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. STRONG NORTHEAST BREEZES WILL BLOW TODAY AND TONIGHT...
BETWEEN AN EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES AND A SLOWLY-MOVING WARM FRONT OVER THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...REACHING THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
SLACKENING BREEZES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CONDS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE AT BOTH TERMINALS...WITH
OCCASIONAL IFR 006-010 CIGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
INTERMITTENT SHOWERS WILL ALSO PERSIST UNTIL AT LEAST 21/23Z AND
PROVIDE BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH WIND GUSTS FROM 20 TO 25 KNOTS. BIG
IMPROVEMENTS IN CIGS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST HOURS.
&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE...NOVEMBER 21...IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1873...THE
DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 52F WAS RECORDED. TEMPERATURE RECORDS
AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872. ALSO IN 1923...THE DAILY RECORD
RAINFALL OF 0.69 INCHES WAS RECORDED.
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GMZ031-GMZ032-GMZ033-GMZ034-GMZ035-
     GMZ042-GMZ043-GMZ044-GMZ052-GMZ053-GMZ054-GMZ055-GMZ072-
     GMZ073-GMZ074-GMZ075.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 211611
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1111 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE FLORIDA KEYS ARE THE SCENE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN THIS
MORNING. CURRENTLY...AIR TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING STEADY IN THE LOWER
70S IN MOST FLORIDA KEYS ISLAND COMMUNITIES...WITH DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND 70F. SKIES ARE CLOUDY WITH INTERMITTENT
LIGHT RAIN IN MANY LOCATIONS. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST BREEZES
PERSIST AS WELL.

AN UPPER-LEVEL COMPOSITE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING REVEALS A LARGE AND
DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN...A PERSISTENT LONG-
WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE UNITED STATES... AND
A BELT OF STRONG WESTERLIES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA
PENINSULA. AT LOW LEVELS...A NEARLY STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE WAS
ANALYZED FROM THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND
STRAITS OF FLORIDA...TO NEAR THE NORTHERN YUCATAN. ASSOCIATED
BAROCLINICITY WAS GREATEST IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL ZONE OVER
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA/SOUTHERN FLORIDA OWING TO ITS PROXIMITY TO
BOTH THE GULF STREAM AND THE COOLER CONTINENTAL AIR WHICH HAS BEEN
ABLE TO MIGRATE FARTHER SOUTHWARD DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. FURTHER
ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE ISENTROPIC ASCENT ONGOING IN THE VICINITY AND
NORTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AT LOW
ALTITUDES...WEAKENING AND VEERING SUBSTANTIALLY ABOVE. IN ADDITION...
FAIRLY STEEP GRADIENTS OF BOTH PRECIPITABLE WATER AND POTENTIAL
BUOYANCY EXIST ACROSS THE SERVICE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
SUBSEQUENTLY...WE ARE DETECTING SEVERAL PRECIPITATION AND CONVECTIVE
MODES ON DOPPLER RADAR ACROSS THE SERVICE AREA...RANGING FROM LIGHT
STRATIFORM RAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHERE
POTENTIAL BUOYANCY VALUES ARE MUCH HIGHER. IN FACT...SEVERAL DISCRETE
CONVECTION CELLS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITH CYCLONIC SHEAR COUPLETS...
ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHORT-LIVED MINI SUPERCELLS.

THE LOCAL FORECAST DIGITAL DATABASE AND DERIVED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED. A CLOUDY...WINDY...COOL...AND SOMEWHAT RAINY DAY WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS...WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS AND GUSTIER
WINDS TO THE SOUTH OVER HAWK CHANNEL...THE FLORIDA REEFS...AND THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. HEAVIER DOWNPOURS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA
KEYS TONIGHT...AS THE FRONTAL ZONE EDGES CLOSER.
&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL ZONES. STRONG NORTHEAST
TO EAST BREEZES AND WELL-DEVELOPED SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. STRONG NORTHEAST BREEZES WILL BLOW TODAY AND TONIGHT...
BETWEEN AN EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES AND A SLOWLY-MOVING WARM FRONT OVER THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...REACHING THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
SLACKENING BREEZES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CONDS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE AT BOTH TERMINALS...WITH
OCCASIONAL IFR 006-010 CIGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
INTERMITTENT SHOWERS WILL ALSO PERSIST UNTIL AT LEAST 21/23Z AND
PROVIDE BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH WIND GUSTS FROM 20 TO 25 KNOTS. BIG
IMPROVEMENTS IN CIGS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST HOURS.
&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE...NOVEMBER 21...IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1873...THE
DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 52F WAS RECORDED. TEMPERATURE RECORDS
AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872. ALSO IN 1923...THE DAILY RECORD
RAINFALL OF 0.69 INCHES WAS RECORDED.
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GMZ031-GMZ032-GMZ033-GMZ034-GMZ035-
     GMZ042-GMZ043-GMZ044-GMZ052-GMZ053-GMZ054-GMZ055-GMZ072-
     GMZ073-GMZ074-GMZ075.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 211317 AAA
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
817 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...
OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOONS
HOURS AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS. CEILINGS HAVE BEEN AROUND
FL030 FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THAT TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TODAY. ADDITIONALLY...INTERMITTENT LIGHT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST...BUT WILL
BE FAST MOVING AND PROVIDE VERY BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITY AT BEST. SURFACE
WINDS WILL FROM THE NORTHEAST FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH WIND GUSTS FROM
20 TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

$$

AVIATION...DEVANAS/KN

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 211317 AAA
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
817 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...
OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOONS
HOURS AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS. CEILINGS HAVE BEEN AROUND
FL030 FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THAT TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TODAY. ADDITIONALLY...INTERMITTENT LIGHT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST...BUT WILL
BE FAST MOVING AND PROVIDE VERY BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITY AT BEST. SURFACE
WINDS WILL FROM THE NORTHEAST FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH WIND GUSTS FROM
20 TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

$$

AVIATION...DEVANAS/KN

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 210943
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
430 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...700-200 MB...LATEST
AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY AS OF 300 AM...OVERLAID WITH AVAILABLE MODEL
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS DETAILS LARGE SCALE POLAR LONGWAVE TROUGHING IN
PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CONUS...WITH AN AVERAGED 75 TO 100 KNOT JET
AT 250 MB WESTERLY FLOW MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FROM
SOUTHERN OLD MEXICO TO ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO SOUTHERN
FLORIDA. WEAK ALBEIT FAST MOVING PVA (POSITIVE VORTICITY) IMPULSES
ARE MOVING WITHIN THIS FLOW AT 500 MB ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
KEYS AS WELL. ACROSS THE TROPICS...THE CENTER OF A REGIONAL SCALE
MID AND UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS ANALYZED JUST SOUTH OF JAMAICA.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS...SURFACE TO 700 MB.
LATEST AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY AS OF 300 AM OVERLAID WITH MARINE AND
LAND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS DETAIL A NEAR 1030 MB RIDGE
OF AN UNSEASONABLE ARCTIC AIRMASS LOCATED FROM EASTERN IOWA
SOUTHWEST TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A COLD FRONT AHEAD OF THIS ARCTIC
AIR MASS EXTENDS FROM THE CAROLINAS WEST SOUTHWESTWARD TO ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS. 1026 MB SURFACE RIDGING IS STILL IN PLACE BETWEEN THIS
FRONTAL ZONE AND ANOTHER VERY SHALLOW NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE
SITUATED FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA. LAST
EVENINGS 00Z SOUNDING AT KEY WEST ILLUSTRATED COLUMNAR MOISTURE
EVIDENT FROM 900 TO 550 MB...WITH FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 875 MB...AND TOTAL COLUMNAR
PWAT AT 1.86 INCHES.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 300 AM...IR IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE
ISLANDS AND ADJOINING WATERS OWING TO DECKS OF
CUMULUS...STRATUS...NIMBOSTRATUS...AND ALTOSTRATUS. RADAR DETECTS
SCATTERED SMALL LOW TOPPED SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN SITU ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN FLORIDA STRAITS AND MUCH OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
FLORIDA KEYS ISLAND CHAIN. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLANDS ARE
AROUND 70 WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70. C-MAN STATIONS
ALONG THE FLORIDA REEF ARE NORTHEAST BETWEEN 19 AND 24 KNOTS AND
GUSTY...BUT AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 02Z SHOWED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS
IN THE GULF WATERS...BUT 25 KNOTS OR HIGHER IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS.

.FORECASTS...INDICATIONS CONTINUE THAT THE DEEP CYCLONIC MID AND
UPPER FLOW PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL FLATTEN
OUT...AS MID UPPER RIDGING (500-200 MB) BUILDS CROSS FLORIDA AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS BY LATE TODAY...AND  HIGHER 500 MB HEIGHTS RETURN OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...UNTIL ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
DIVES RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD ABOVE THE PLAINS...CARVING OUT ANOTHER DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH TO IMPACT OUR AREA BY MIDWEEK. THE COLD CENTER OF
THE STRONGEST RIDGING THIS MORNING IS BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN OHIO
VALLEY...AND WILL MOVE TO THE VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT AS A
1035 MB CENTER BY MIDNIGHT...THEN BE CENTERED OFF OF THE OUTER BANKS
AS A 1030 MB HIGH LATE SATURDAY...BEFORE ELONGATING IN AN EAST TO
WEST RIDGE SATURDAY NORTH CAROLINA EXTENDING EASTWARD TO 65 WEST 35
NORTH IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SHALLOW SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ANALYZED JUST TO
OUR SOUTH TODAY WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...REACHING THE KEYS DURING SATURDAY. A SURFACE
LOW WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND BEGIN
TO MOVE TO THE GREAT LAKES. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. AVAILABLE MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO ILLUSTRATE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER TO MID TROPOSPHERE
IS IN PLACE TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT (COLUMNAR PWAT
BETWEEN 1.50 AND 2.00 INCHES). MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST
SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS AVAILABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD THROUGH
SATURDAY. ERGO...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE LOW TO MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE KEYS TODAY AND TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT( 30 TO 40%) ALSO...GIVEN THE COMBINATION
OF THE LOWER LEVEL WARM FRONTAL DYNAMICS...DEEPER MOISTURE IN TANDEM
WITH AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL PVA...WILL INCLUDE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND
ACROSS ALL ZONES FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING. DESPITE A
STRONG MSLP GRADIENT IN PLACE DURING SUNDAY...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER IN ACROSS THE KEYS GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEPENING
ANTICYCLONE OVERHEAD.

.EXTENDED...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A MUCH WEAKER PRESSURE
PATTERN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY .DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE LEVELS...SO WILL HOLD WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...BUT TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT IS
INDICATED BY ALL LONG RANGE MODELS TO SWING ACROSS THE KEYS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WATERS
AGAIN THIS MORNING...SMALL CRAFT CAUTIONARY HEADLINES FOR THE
FLORIDA BAY AND NEARSHORE GULF WATERS INSIDE THE FIVE FATHOM LINE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WINDS WILL SURGE AGAIN ACROSS THESE
SHALLOWS LATE THIS EVENING AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS ALL WATERS AGAIN OVERNIGHT. THEN ON SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND DEEPER
OFFSHORE GULF WATERS...AND ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT THE
SHALLOWER NEARSHORE GULF AND FLORIDA BAY WATERS. CAUTIONARY
HEADLINES ARE STILL LIKELY ACROSS ALL WATERS DURING SUNDAY. THEN
WINDS AND SEAS LETTING DOWN ENOUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
FREQUENT MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY THROUGH DAYBREAK AT BOTH THE KEY
WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS. ASOS HAS BEEN DETECTING CEILINGS AROUND
FL020 FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THAT TREND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ADDITIONALLY...INTERMITTENT LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST...BUT WILL BE FAST MOVING AND PROVIDE VERY
BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITY AT BEST...SO SHRA WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN THE
TERMINAL FORECASTS. SURFACE WINDS WILL FROM THE NORTHEAST FROM 10 TO
15 KNOTS WITH WIND GUSTS FROM 20 TO 25 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIM POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  79  75  81  75  / 40  40  30  30
MARATHON  79  75  83  76  / 40  40  30  30

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS MORNING FOR ALL WATERS THIS MORNING.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/GRIDS.........FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS...........DEVANAS

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 210943
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
430 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...700-200 MB...LATEST
AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY AS OF 300 AM...OVERLAID WITH AVAILABLE MODEL
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS DETAILS LARGE SCALE POLAR LONGWAVE TROUGHING IN
PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CONUS...WITH AN AVERAGED 75 TO 100 KNOT JET
AT 250 MB WESTERLY FLOW MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FROM
SOUTHERN OLD MEXICO TO ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO SOUTHERN
FLORIDA. WEAK ALBEIT FAST MOVING PVA (POSITIVE VORTICITY) IMPULSES
ARE MOVING WITHIN THIS FLOW AT 500 MB ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
KEYS AS WELL. ACROSS THE TROPICS...THE CENTER OF A REGIONAL SCALE
MID AND UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS ANALYZED JUST SOUTH OF JAMAICA.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS...SURFACE TO 700 MB.
LATEST AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY AS OF 300 AM OVERLAID WITH MARINE AND
LAND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS DETAIL A NEAR 1030 MB RIDGE
OF AN UNSEASONABLE ARCTIC AIRMASS LOCATED FROM EASTERN IOWA
SOUTHWEST TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A COLD FRONT AHEAD OF THIS ARCTIC
AIR MASS EXTENDS FROM THE CAROLINAS WEST SOUTHWESTWARD TO ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS. 1026 MB SURFACE RIDGING IS STILL IN PLACE BETWEEN THIS
FRONTAL ZONE AND ANOTHER VERY SHALLOW NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE
SITUATED FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA. LAST
EVENINGS 00Z SOUNDING AT KEY WEST ILLUSTRATED COLUMNAR MOISTURE
EVIDENT FROM 900 TO 550 MB...WITH FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 875 MB...AND TOTAL COLUMNAR
PWAT AT 1.86 INCHES.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 300 AM...IR IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE
ISLANDS AND ADJOINING WATERS OWING TO DECKS OF
CUMULUS...STRATUS...NIMBOSTRATUS...AND ALTOSTRATUS. RADAR DETECTS
SCATTERED SMALL LOW TOPPED SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN SITU ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN FLORIDA STRAITS AND MUCH OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
FLORIDA KEYS ISLAND CHAIN. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLANDS ARE
AROUND 70 WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70. C-MAN STATIONS
ALONG THE FLORIDA REEF ARE NORTHEAST BETWEEN 19 AND 24 KNOTS AND
GUSTY...BUT AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 02Z SHOWED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS
IN THE GULF WATERS...BUT 25 KNOTS OR HIGHER IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS.

.FORECASTS...INDICATIONS CONTINUE THAT THE DEEP CYCLONIC MID AND
UPPER FLOW PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL FLATTEN
OUT...AS MID UPPER RIDGING (500-200 MB) BUILDS CROSS FLORIDA AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS BY LATE TODAY...AND  HIGHER 500 MB HEIGHTS RETURN OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...UNTIL ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
DIVES RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD ABOVE THE PLAINS...CARVING OUT ANOTHER DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH TO IMPACT OUR AREA BY MIDWEEK. THE COLD CENTER OF
THE STRONGEST RIDGING THIS MORNING IS BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN OHIO
VALLEY...AND WILL MOVE TO THE VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT AS A
1035 MB CENTER BY MIDNIGHT...THEN BE CENTERED OFF OF THE OUTER BANKS
AS A 1030 MB HIGH LATE SATURDAY...BEFORE ELONGATING IN AN EAST TO
WEST RIDGE SATURDAY NORTH CAROLINA EXTENDING EASTWARD TO 65 WEST 35
NORTH IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SHALLOW SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ANALYZED JUST TO
OUR SOUTH TODAY WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...REACHING THE KEYS DURING SATURDAY. A SURFACE
LOW WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND BEGIN
TO MOVE TO THE GREAT LAKES. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. AVAILABLE MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO ILLUSTRATE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER TO MID TROPOSPHERE
IS IN PLACE TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT (COLUMNAR PWAT
BETWEEN 1.50 AND 2.00 INCHES). MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST
SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS AVAILABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD THROUGH
SATURDAY. ERGO...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE LOW TO MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE KEYS TODAY AND TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT( 30 TO 40%) ALSO...GIVEN THE COMBINATION
OF THE LOWER LEVEL WARM FRONTAL DYNAMICS...DEEPER MOISTURE IN TANDEM
WITH AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL PVA...WILL INCLUDE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND
ACROSS ALL ZONES FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING. DESPITE A
STRONG MSLP GRADIENT IN PLACE DURING SUNDAY...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER IN ACROSS THE KEYS GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEPENING
ANTICYCLONE OVERHEAD.

.EXTENDED...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A MUCH WEAKER PRESSURE
PATTERN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY .DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE LEVELS...SO WILL HOLD WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...BUT TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT IS
INDICATED BY ALL LONG RANGE MODELS TO SWING ACROSS THE KEYS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WATERS
AGAIN THIS MORNING...SMALL CRAFT CAUTIONARY HEADLINES FOR THE
FLORIDA BAY AND NEARSHORE GULF WATERS INSIDE THE FIVE FATHOM LINE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WINDS WILL SURGE AGAIN ACROSS THESE
SHALLOWS LATE THIS EVENING AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS ALL WATERS AGAIN OVERNIGHT. THEN ON SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND DEEPER
OFFSHORE GULF WATERS...AND ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT THE
SHALLOWER NEARSHORE GULF AND FLORIDA BAY WATERS. CAUTIONARY
HEADLINES ARE STILL LIKELY ACROSS ALL WATERS DURING SUNDAY. THEN
WINDS AND SEAS LETTING DOWN ENOUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
FREQUENT MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY THROUGH DAYBREAK AT BOTH THE KEY
WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS. ASOS HAS BEEN DETECTING CEILINGS AROUND
FL020 FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THAT TREND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ADDITIONALLY...INTERMITTENT LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST...BUT WILL BE FAST MOVING AND PROVIDE VERY
BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITY AT BEST...SO SHRA WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN THE
TERMINAL FORECASTS. SURFACE WINDS WILL FROM THE NORTHEAST FROM 10 TO
15 KNOTS WITH WIND GUSTS FROM 20 TO 25 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIM POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  79  75  81  75  / 40  40  30  30
MARATHON  79  75  83  76  / 40  40  30  30

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS MORNING FOR ALL WATERS THIS MORNING.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/GRIDS.........FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS...........DEVANAS

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