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000
FXUS62 KKEY 030210
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1010 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER-LEVEL COMPOSITE ANALYSIS THIS EVENING REVEALS A DEEP LAYER
MEAN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED RIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.
THE FLORIDA KEYS REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE ANTICYCLONE CENTER WITHIN
DEEP...BUT WEAK EASTERLY FLOW. IN FACT...THE SURFACE-TO-10000-FEET
LAYER MEAN FLOW WAS 070/05KT...PER DATA COLLECTED FROM THE KEY WEST
EVENING RADIOSONDE BALLOON. INCIDENTALLY...SOME OF THE LOWER-
TROPOSPHERIC THERMODYNAMIC DATA MAY NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE
AMBIENT ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...ESPECIALLY IN THE LAYER 4000-7000
FEET ABOVE GROUND. THE BALLOON SEEMS TO HAVE PENETRATED A CUMULUS
CLOUD AT THESE ALTITUDES. IN ANY CASE...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY
MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS...WITH MODERATE CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY AND
LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. THE LIMITING FACTORS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
DEEP...MOIST CONVECTION ARE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND LACK OF SURFACE-
BASED LIFT. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE FORMED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS WHERE SURFACE FORCING WAS
PRESENT. EVEN NOW...ISOLATED SHOWERS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ARE
DRIFTING WESTWARD OVER PORTIONS OF THE SERVICE AREA.

CURRENTLY...AIR TEMPERATURES IN MOST KEYS ISLAND COMMUNITIES ARE IN
THE MID 80S...WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
HEAT INDICES AT THIS HOUR REMAIN IN THE MID 90S.

OVERNIGHT FORECASTS ARE ON TRACK. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S...AND LIGHT EAST WINDS. THE DIGITAL
FORECAST DATABASE HAS BEEN UPDATED...AND DERIVED PRODUCTS WILL BE
FORTHCOMING SHORTLY.
&&

.MARINE...
NO ADVISORIES AND NO HEADLINES. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CELL OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE CELL WILL BE NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 03/24Z...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH EYW
AND MTH. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY TO EXTREME PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS FROM 070/06KT
THROUGH 03/12Z. HOWEVER...IFR/MVFR EVENT PROBABILITIES REMAIN TOO
LOW FOR INCLUSION IN TAFS. CELL MOTIONS WILL BECOME SLOWER AND MORE
VARIABLE/ERRATIC AFTER 03/12Z.
&&

.CLIMATE...
SEPTEMBER 2...ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN
1935...THE EYE OF THE LABOR DAY HURRICANE MOVED NORTHWEST ACROSS LONG
KEY AND LOWER MATECUMBE KEY IN THE EVENING... ACCOMPANIED BY A STORM
TIDE 15-20 FT ABOVE MEAN LOW WATER AND AN EYE LULL OF 55 MINUTES ON
LONG KEY. ENGINEERING STUDIES INDICATED GUSTS OF 150 TO 200 MPH FROM
LOWER MATECUMBE KEY TO ISLAMORADA. OVER 400 PEOPLE WERE KILLED...MANY
OF WHOM WERE WORLD WAR I VETERANS WORKING ON THE OVERSEAS
RAILROAD...WHICH WAS DESTROYED. IT WAS THE STRONGEST HURRICANE EVER
TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE UNITED STATES. (SEE
HTTP://EN.WIKIPEDIA.ORG/WIKI/LABOR_DAY_HURRICANE FOR MORE
INFO./DETAILS.)
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KASPER
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING
MEDIA.................BS

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 030210
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1010 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER-LEVEL COMPOSITE ANALYSIS THIS EVENING REVEALS A DEEP LAYER
MEAN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED RIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.
THE FLORIDA KEYS REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE ANTICYCLONE CENTER WITHIN
DEEP...BUT WEAK EASTERLY FLOW. IN FACT...THE SURFACE-TO-10000-FEET
LAYER MEAN FLOW WAS 070/05KT...PER DATA COLLECTED FROM THE KEY WEST
EVENING RADIOSONDE BALLOON. INCIDENTALLY...SOME OF THE LOWER-
TROPOSPHERIC THERMODYNAMIC DATA MAY NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE
AMBIENT ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...ESPECIALLY IN THE LAYER 4000-7000
FEET ABOVE GROUND. THE BALLOON SEEMS TO HAVE PENETRATED A CUMULUS
CLOUD AT THESE ALTITUDES. IN ANY CASE...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY
MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS...WITH MODERATE CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY AND
LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. THE LIMITING FACTORS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
DEEP...MOIST CONVECTION ARE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND LACK OF SURFACE-
BASED LIFT. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE FORMED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS WHERE SURFACE FORCING WAS
PRESENT. EVEN NOW...ISOLATED SHOWERS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ARE
DRIFTING WESTWARD OVER PORTIONS OF THE SERVICE AREA.

CURRENTLY...AIR TEMPERATURES IN MOST KEYS ISLAND COMMUNITIES ARE IN
THE MID 80S...WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
HEAT INDICES AT THIS HOUR REMAIN IN THE MID 90S.

OVERNIGHT FORECASTS ARE ON TRACK. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S...AND LIGHT EAST WINDS. THE DIGITAL
FORECAST DATABASE HAS BEEN UPDATED...AND DERIVED PRODUCTS WILL BE
FORTHCOMING SHORTLY.
&&

.MARINE...
NO ADVISORIES AND NO HEADLINES. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CELL OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE CELL WILL BE NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 03/24Z...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH EYW
AND MTH. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY TO EXTREME PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS FROM 070/06KT
THROUGH 03/12Z. HOWEVER...IFR/MVFR EVENT PROBABILITIES REMAIN TOO
LOW FOR INCLUSION IN TAFS. CELL MOTIONS WILL BECOME SLOWER AND MORE
VARIABLE/ERRATIC AFTER 03/12Z.
&&

.CLIMATE...
SEPTEMBER 2...ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN
1935...THE EYE OF THE LABOR DAY HURRICANE MOVED NORTHWEST ACROSS LONG
KEY AND LOWER MATECUMBE KEY IN THE EVENING... ACCOMPANIED BY A STORM
TIDE 15-20 FT ABOVE MEAN LOW WATER AND AN EYE LULL OF 55 MINUTES ON
LONG KEY. ENGINEERING STUDIES INDICATED GUSTS OF 150 TO 200 MPH FROM
LOWER MATECUMBE KEY TO ISLAMORADA. OVER 400 PEOPLE WERE KILLED...MANY
OF WHOM WERE WORLD WAR I VETERANS WORKING ON THE OVERSEAS
RAILROAD...WHICH WAS DESTROYED. IT WAS THE STRONGEST HURRICANE EVER
TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE UNITED STATES. (SEE
HTTP://EN.WIKIPEDIA.ORG/WIKI/LABOR_DAY_HURRICANE FOR MORE
INFO./DETAILS.)
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KASPER
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING
MEDIA.................BS

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 030210
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1010 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER-LEVEL COMPOSITE ANALYSIS THIS EVENING REVEALS A DEEP LAYER
MEAN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED RIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.
THE FLORIDA KEYS REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE ANTICYCLONE CENTER WITHIN
DEEP...BUT WEAK EASTERLY FLOW. IN FACT...THE SURFACE-TO-10000-FEET
LAYER MEAN FLOW WAS 070/05KT...PER DATA COLLECTED FROM THE KEY WEST
EVENING RADIOSONDE BALLOON. INCIDENTALLY...SOME OF THE LOWER-
TROPOSPHERIC THERMODYNAMIC DATA MAY NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE
AMBIENT ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...ESPECIALLY IN THE LAYER 4000-7000
FEET ABOVE GROUND. THE BALLOON SEEMS TO HAVE PENETRATED A CUMULUS
CLOUD AT THESE ALTITUDES. IN ANY CASE...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY
MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS...WITH MODERATE CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY AND
LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. THE LIMITING FACTORS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
DEEP...MOIST CONVECTION ARE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND LACK OF SURFACE-
BASED LIFT. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE FORMED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS WHERE SURFACE FORCING WAS
PRESENT. EVEN NOW...ISOLATED SHOWERS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ARE
DRIFTING WESTWARD OVER PORTIONS OF THE SERVICE AREA.

CURRENTLY...AIR TEMPERATURES IN MOST KEYS ISLAND COMMUNITIES ARE IN
THE MID 80S...WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
HEAT INDICES AT THIS HOUR REMAIN IN THE MID 90S.

OVERNIGHT FORECASTS ARE ON TRACK. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S...AND LIGHT EAST WINDS. THE DIGITAL
FORECAST DATABASE HAS BEEN UPDATED...AND DERIVED PRODUCTS WILL BE
FORTHCOMING SHORTLY.
&&

.MARINE...
NO ADVISORIES AND NO HEADLINES. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CELL OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE CELL WILL BE NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 03/24Z...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH EYW
AND MTH. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY TO EXTREME PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS FROM 070/06KT
THROUGH 03/12Z. HOWEVER...IFR/MVFR EVENT PROBABILITIES REMAIN TOO
LOW FOR INCLUSION IN TAFS. CELL MOTIONS WILL BECOME SLOWER AND MORE
VARIABLE/ERRATIC AFTER 03/12Z.
&&

.CLIMATE...
SEPTEMBER 2...ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN
1935...THE EYE OF THE LABOR DAY HURRICANE MOVED NORTHWEST ACROSS LONG
KEY AND LOWER MATECUMBE KEY IN THE EVENING... ACCOMPANIED BY A STORM
TIDE 15-20 FT ABOVE MEAN LOW WATER AND AN EYE LULL OF 55 MINUTES ON
LONG KEY. ENGINEERING STUDIES INDICATED GUSTS OF 150 TO 200 MPH FROM
LOWER MATECUMBE KEY TO ISLAMORADA. OVER 400 PEOPLE WERE KILLED...MANY
OF WHOM WERE WORLD WAR I VETERANS WORKING ON THE OVERSEAS
RAILROAD...WHICH WAS DESTROYED. IT WAS THE STRONGEST HURRICANE EVER
TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE UNITED STATES. (SEE
HTTP://EN.WIKIPEDIA.ORG/WIKI/LABOR_DAY_HURRICANE FOR MORE
INFO./DETAILS.)
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KASPER
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING
MEDIA.................BS

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST





000
FXUS62 KKEY 030210
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1010 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER-LEVEL COMPOSITE ANALYSIS THIS EVENING REVEALS A DEEP LAYER
MEAN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED RIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.
THE FLORIDA KEYS REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE ANTICYCLONE CENTER WITHIN
DEEP...BUT WEAK EASTERLY FLOW. IN FACT...THE SURFACE-TO-10000-FEET
LAYER MEAN FLOW WAS 070/05KT...PER DATA COLLECTED FROM THE KEY WEST
EVENING RADIOSONDE BALLOON. INCIDENTALLY...SOME OF THE LOWER-
TROPOSPHERIC THERMODYNAMIC DATA MAY NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE
AMBIENT ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...ESPECIALLY IN THE LAYER 4000-7000
FEET ABOVE GROUND. THE BALLOON SEEMS TO HAVE PENETRATED A CUMULUS
CLOUD AT THESE ALTITUDES. IN ANY CASE...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY
MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS...WITH MODERATE CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY AND
LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. THE LIMITING FACTORS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
DEEP...MOIST CONVECTION ARE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND LACK OF SURFACE-
BASED LIFT. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE FORMED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS WHERE SURFACE FORCING WAS
PRESENT. EVEN NOW...ISOLATED SHOWERS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ARE
DRIFTING WESTWARD OVER PORTIONS OF THE SERVICE AREA.

CURRENTLY...AIR TEMPERATURES IN MOST KEYS ISLAND COMMUNITIES ARE IN
THE MID 80S...WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
HEAT INDICES AT THIS HOUR REMAIN IN THE MID 90S.

OVERNIGHT FORECASTS ARE ON TRACK. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S...AND LIGHT EAST WINDS. THE DIGITAL
FORECAST DATABASE HAS BEEN UPDATED...AND DERIVED PRODUCTS WILL BE
FORTHCOMING SHORTLY.
&&

.MARINE...
NO ADVISORIES AND NO HEADLINES. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CELL OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE CELL WILL BE NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 03/24Z...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH EYW
AND MTH. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY TO EXTREME PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS FROM 070/06KT
THROUGH 03/12Z. HOWEVER...IFR/MVFR EVENT PROBABILITIES REMAIN TOO
LOW FOR INCLUSION IN TAFS. CELL MOTIONS WILL BECOME SLOWER AND MORE
VARIABLE/ERRATIC AFTER 03/12Z.
&&

.CLIMATE...
SEPTEMBER 2...ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN
1935...THE EYE OF THE LABOR DAY HURRICANE MOVED NORTHWEST ACROSS LONG
KEY AND LOWER MATECUMBE KEY IN THE EVENING... ACCOMPANIED BY A STORM
TIDE 15-20 FT ABOVE MEAN LOW WATER AND AN EYE LULL OF 55 MINUTES ON
LONG KEY. ENGINEERING STUDIES INDICATED GUSTS OF 150 TO 200 MPH FROM
LOWER MATECUMBE KEY TO ISLAMORADA. OVER 400 PEOPLE WERE KILLED...MANY
OF WHOM WERE WORLD WAR I VETERANS WORKING ON THE OVERSEAS
RAILROAD...WHICH WAS DESTROYED. IT WAS THE STRONGEST HURRICANE EVER
TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE UNITED STATES. (SEE
HTTP://EN.WIKIPEDIA.ORG/WIKI/LABOR_DAY_HURRICANE FOR MORE
INFO./DETAILS.)
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KASPER
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING
MEDIA.................BS

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST




000
FXUS62 KKEY 021850
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
250 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND
90 DEGREES ALONG MOST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. MEANWHILE...LOCAL RADARS
ARE DETECTING A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON THE
NORTHERN TIP OF THE WESTERNMOST LOWER KEYS...BETWEEN SUMMERLAND
KEY AND KEY WEST. SURFACE WISE...A BROAD RIDGE IS DRAPED ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND NEAR OUR ENTIRE MARINE
DISTRICT...RESULTING IN GENERALLY VARIABLE WINDS OF LESS THAN
10 KNOTS...EXCEPT MOSTLY EAST NEAR 10 KNOTS ON THE OUTER
FLORIDA STRAITS.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE OVER THE SUNSHINE STATE AND THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS WILL SLOWLY SPLINTER BEGINNING
FRIDAY...AS A LENGTHY TROUGH DIGS EQUATORWARD DOWN THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND. BECAUSE OF THESE
CHANGES ALOFT...LARGE SCALE DESCENT WILL SHIFT TO UPWARD
LIFT BUT TO WHAT EXTENT REMAINS UNCERTAIN. BUT UNTIL
THEN...MESOSCALE FORCING PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF CLOUD LINE
GENESIS WILL BE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION SOURCE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY EVENING. WITH THAT SAID...WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCE 30 TO 40 PERCENT 12 HOUR POPS WHICH IS A BLEND OF
THE ECE/MEX MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE UNUSUALLY DEEP LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW COVERING OUR REGION
WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO DEEP ANTICYCLONIC...AS THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE EXPANDS WESTWARD BY TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. GIVEN
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITHIN SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT...WILL RETAIN 40
PERCENT POPS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND LOW CHANCE POPS THEREAFTER.
PLENTY OF STRONG INSOLATION WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
NEAR 90 DEGREES WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 80.

&&

.MARINE...
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE WATERSPOUTS...LIGHT
TO GENTLE WINDS WILL PREDOMINATE ON OUR MARINE DISTRICT FOR THE
BALANCE OF THIS WEEK...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE ESPECIALLY ON THE
WATERS ADJACENT TO THE UPPER KEYS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE BEST CHANCE FOR A SUB VFR ENCOUNTER WILL BE FOR THE BALANCE
OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  83  90  82  91 / 20 30 30 30
MARATHON  82  92  82  93 / 20 30 30 30

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........APA
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN
DATA COLLECTION.......SC/BF

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST




000
FXUS62 KKEY 021850
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
250 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND
90 DEGREES ALONG MOST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. MEANWHILE...LOCAL RADARS
ARE DETECTING A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON THE
NORTHERN TIP OF THE WESTERNMOST LOWER KEYS...BETWEEN SUMMERLAND
KEY AND KEY WEST. SURFACE WISE...A BROAD RIDGE IS DRAPED ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND NEAR OUR ENTIRE MARINE
DISTRICT...RESULTING IN GENERALLY VARIABLE WINDS OF LESS THAN
10 KNOTS...EXCEPT MOSTLY EAST NEAR 10 KNOTS ON THE OUTER
FLORIDA STRAITS.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE OVER THE SUNSHINE STATE AND THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS WILL SLOWLY SPLINTER BEGINNING
FRIDAY...AS A LENGTHY TROUGH DIGS EQUATORWARD DOWN THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND. BECAUSE OF THESE
CHANGES ALOFT...LARGE SCALE DESCENT WILL SHIFT TO UPWARD
LIFT BUT TO WHAT EXTENT REMAINS UNCERTAIN. BUT UNTIL
THEN...MESOSCALE FORCING PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF CLOUD LINE
GENESIS WILL BE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION SOURCE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY EVENING. WITH THAT SAID...WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCE 30 TO 40 PERCENT 12 HOUR POPS WHICH IS A BLEND OF
THE ECE/MEX MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE UNUSUALLY DEEP LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW COVERING OUR REGION
WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO DEEP ANTICYCLONIC...AS THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE EXPANDS WESTWARD BY TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. GIVEN
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITHIN SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT...WILL RETAIN 40
PERCENT POPS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND LOW CHANCE POPS THEREAFTER.
PLENTY OF STRONG INSOLATION WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
NEAR 90 DEGREES WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 80.

&&

.MARINE...
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE WATERSPOUTS...LIGHT
TO GENTLE WINDS WILL PREDOMINATE ON OUR MARINE DISTRICT FOR THE
BALANCE OF THIS WEEK...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE ESPECIALLY ON THE
WATERS ADJACENT TO THE UPPER KEYS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE BEST CHANCE FOR A SUB VFR ENCOUNTER WILL BE FOR THE BALANCE
OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  83  90  82  91 / 20 30 30 30
MARATHON  82  92  82  93 / 20 30 30 30

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........APA
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN
DATA COLLECTION.......SC/BF

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 021415
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1015 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
EARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE PHOTOGRAPHS SHOW SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY
WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
MEANWHILE...LOCAL RADARS ARE DETECTING ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTTING OUR
ENTIRE COUNTY WARNING AREA. SURFACE WISE...A BROAD...AND VERY MODEST
WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE POKING INTO SOUTH FLORIDA...RESULTING IN EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS ON OUR MARINE DISTRICT.
OTHERWISE...OUR MORNING SOUNDING REVEALS CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR FROM
850 MB AND ABOVE...WITH LIGHT AND C

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...
A DEEP AND STACKED SUBTROPICAL WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL HOLD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...RESULTING IN
CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ABOVE 850 MB. WITH OUR FLOW EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO BACK FROM THE SURFACE TO 700 MB (MEAN FLOW 065 DEGREES)
DURING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CLOUD LINE GENESIS IS LIKELY
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LOWER KEYS BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR SHOULD
LIMIT COVERAGE. OTHERWISE...THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD KEEP DEEP
CONVECTIVE CELLS PREDOMINATELY NORTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. WITH THAT
SAID...ONLY ISOLATED 20 PERCENT POPS SEEM APPROPRIATE. PLENTY OF
STRONG INSOLATION WITHIN A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 90 DEGREES. SINCE THE
CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS ON TRACK...NO ADJUSTMENT IS PLANNED.

&&

.MARINE...
A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL EXTEND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA...RESULTING
IN LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS ON
THE FLORIDA STRAITS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10
KNOTS WILL PREVAIL AT THE EYW AND MTH TERMINALS TODAY. VCSH COULD BE
POSSIBLE BUT THIS WILL BE LIGHT AND BRIEF.

&&

.CLIMATE...SEPTEMBER 2...ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER
HISTORY...IN 1935...THE EYE OF THE LABOR DAY HURRICANE MOVED
NORTHWEST ACROSS LONG KEY AND LOWER MATECUMBE KEY IN THE EVENING...
ACCOMPANIED BY A STORM TIDE 15-20 FT ABOVE MEAN LOW WATER AND AN EYE
LULL OF 55 MINUTES ON LONG KEY. ENGINEERING STUDIES INDICATED GUSTS
OF 150 TO 200 MPH FROM LOWER MATECUMBE KEY TO ISLAMORADA. OVER 400
PEOPLE WERE KILLED...MANY OF WHOM WERE WORLD WAR I VETERANS WORKING
ON THE OVERSEAS RAILROAD...WHICH WAS DESTROYED. IT WAS THE STRONGEST
HURRICANE EVER TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE UNITED STATES. (SEE
HTTP://EN.WIKIPEDIA.ORG/WIKI/LABOR_DAY_HURRICANE FOR MORE
INFO./DETAILS.)

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........APA
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN
DATA COLLECTION.......SC

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 021415
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1015 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
EARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE PHOTOGRAPHS SHOW SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY
WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
MEANWHILE...LOCAL RADARS ARE DETECTING ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTTING OUR
ENTIRE COUNTY WARNING AREA. SURFACE WISE...A BROAD...AND VERY MODEST
WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE POKING INTO SOUTH FLORIDA...RESULTING IN EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS ON OUR MARINE DISTRICT.
OTHERWISE...OUR MORNING SOUNDING REVEALS CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR FROM
850 MB AND ABOVE...WITH LIGHT AND C

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...
A DEEP AND STACKED SUBTROPICAL WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL HOLD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...RESULTING IN
CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ABOVE 850 MB. WITH OUR FLOW EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO BACK FROM THE SURFACE TO 700 MB (MEAN FLOW 065 DEGREES)
DURING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CLOUD LINE GENESIS IS LIKELY
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LOWER KEYS BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR SHOULD
LIMIT COVERAGE. OTHERWISE...THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD KEEP DEEP
CONVECTIVE CELLS PREDOMINATELY NORTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. WITH THAT
SAID...ONLY ISOLATED 20 PERCENT POPS SEEM APPROPRIATE. PLENTY OF
STRONG INSOLATION WITHIN A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 90 DEGREES. SINCE THE
CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS ON TRACK...NO ADJUSTMENT IS PLANNED.

&&

.MARINE...
A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL EXTEND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA...RESULTING
IN LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS ON
THE FLORIDA STRAITS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10
KNOTS WILL PREVAIL AT THE EYW AND MTH TERMINALS TODAY. VCSH COULD BE
POSSIBLE BUT THIS WILL BE LIGHT AND BRIEF.

&&

.CLIMATE...SEPTEMBER 2...ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER
HISTORY...IN 1935...THE EYE OF THE LABOR DAY HURRICANE MOVED
NORTHWEST ACROSS LONG KEY AND LOWER MATECUMBE KEY IN THE EVENING...
ACCOMPANIED BY A STORM TIDE 15-20 FT ABOVE MEAN LOW WATER AND AN EYE
LULL OF 55 MINUTES ON LONG KEY. ENGINEERING STUDIES INDICATED GUSTS
OF 150 TO 200 MPH FROM LOWER MATECUMBE KEY TO ISLAMORADA. OVER 400
PEOPLE WERE KILLED...MANY OF WHOM WERE WORLD WAR I VETERANS WORKING
ON THE OVERSEAS RAILROAD...WHICH WAS DESTROYED. IT WAS THE STRONGEST
HURRICANE EVER TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE UNITED STATES. (SEE
HTTP://EN.WIKIPEDIA.ORG/WIKI/LABOR_DAY_HURRICANE FOR MORE
INFO./DETAILS.)

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........APA
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN
DATA COLLECTION.......SC

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 021415
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1015 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
EARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE PHOTOGRAPHS SHOW SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY
WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
MEANWHILE...LOCAL RADARS ARE DETECTING ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTTING OUR
ENTIRE COUNTY WARNING AREA. SURFACE WISE...A BROAD...AND VERY MODEST
WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE POKING INTO SOUTH FLORIDA...RESULTING IN EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS ON OUR MARINE DISTRICT.
OTHERWISE...OUR MORNING SOUNDING REVEALS CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR FROM
850 MB AND ABOVE...WITH LIGHT AND C

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...
A DEEP AND STACKED SUBTROPICAL WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL HOLD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...RESULTING IN
CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ABOVE 850 MB. WITH OUR FLOW EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO BACK FROM THE SURFACE TO 700 MB (MEAN FLOW 065 DEGREES)
DURING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CLOUD LINE GENESIS IS LIKELY
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LOWER KEYS BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR SHOULD
LIMIT COVERAGE. OTHERWISE...THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD KEEP DEEP
CONVECTIVE CELLS PREDOMINATELY NORTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. WITH THAT
SAID...ONLY ISOLATED 20 PERCENT POPS SEEM APPROPRIATE. PLENTY OF
STRONG INSOLATION WITHIN A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 90 DEGREES. SINCE THE
CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS ON TRACK...NO ADJUSTMENT IS PLANNED.

&&

.MARINE...
A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL EXTEND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA...RESULTING
IN LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS ON
THE FLORIDA STRAITS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10
KNOTS WILL PREVAIL AT THE EYW AND MTH TERMINALS TODAY. VCSH COULD BE
POSSIBLE BUT THIS WILL BE LIGHT AND BRIEF.

&&

.CLIMATE...SEPTEMBER 2...ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER
HISTORY...IN 1935...THE EYE OF THE LABOR DAY HURRICANE MOVED
NORTHWEST ACROSS LONG KEY AND LOWER MATECUMBE KEY IN THE EVENING...
ACCOMPANIED BY A STORM TIDE 15-20 FT ABOVE MEAN LOW WATER AND AN EYE
LULL OF 55 MINUTES ON LONG KEY. ENGINEERING STUDIES INDICATED GUSTS
OF 150 TO 200 MPH FROM LOWER MATECUMBE KEY TO ISLAMORADA. OVER 400
PEOPLE WERE KILLED...MANY OF WHOM WERE WORLD WAR I VETERANS WORKING
ON THE OVERSEAS RAILROAD...WHICH WAS DESTROYED. IT WAS THE STRONGEST
HURRICANE EVER TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE UNITED STATES. (SEE
HTTP://EN.WIKIPEDIA.ORG/WIKI/LABOR_DAY_HURRICANE FOR MORE
INFO./DETAILS.)

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........APA
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN
DATA COLLECTION.......SC

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 021415
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1015 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
EARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE PHOTOGRAPHS SHOW SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY
WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
MEANWHILE...LOCAL RADARS ARE DETECTING ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTTING OUR
ENTIRE COUNTY WARNING AREA. SURFACE WISE...A BROAD...AND VERY MODEST
WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE POKING INTO SOUTH FLORIDA...RESULTING IN EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS ON OUR MARINE DISTRICT.
OTHERWISE...OUR MORNING SOUNDING REVEALS CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR FROM
850 MB AND ABOVE...WITH LIGHT AND C

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...
A DEEP AND STACKED SUBTROPICAL WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL HOLD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...RESULTING IN
CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ABOVE 850 MB. WITH OUR FLOW EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO BACK FROM THE SURFACE TO 700 MB (MEAN FLOW 065 DEGREES)
DURING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CLOUD LINE GENESIS IS LIKELY
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LOWER KEYS BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR SHOULD
LIMIT COVERAGE. OTHERWISE...THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD KEEP DEEP
CONVECTIVE CELLS PREDOMINATELY NORTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. WITH THAT
SAID...ONLY ISOLATED 20 PERCENT POPS SEEM APPROPRIATE. PLENTY OF
STRONG INSOLATION WITHIN A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 90 DEGREES. SINCE THE
CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS ON TRACK...NO ADJUSTMENT IS PLANNED.

&&

.MARINE...
A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL EXTEND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA...RESULTING
IN LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS ON
THE FLORIDA STRAITS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10
KNOTS WILL PREVAIL AT THE EYW AND MTH TERMINALS TODAY. VCSH COULD BE
POSSIBLE BUT THIS WILL BE LIGHT AND BRIEF.

&&

.CLIMATE...SEPTEMBER 2...ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER
HISTORY...IN 1935...THE EYE OF THE LABOR DAY HURRICANE MOVED
NORTHWEST ACROSS LONG KEY AND LOWER MATECUMBE KEY IN THE EVENING...
ACCOMPANIED BY A STORM TIDE 15-20 FT ABOVE MEAN LOW WATER AND AN EYE
LULL OF 55 MINUTES ON LONG KEY. ENGINEERING STUDIES INDICATED GUSTS
OF 150 TO 200 MPH FROM LOWER MATECUMBE KEY TO ISLAMORADA. OVER 400
PEOPLE WERE KILLED...MANY OF WHOM WERE WORLD WAR I VETERANS WORKING
ON THE OVERSEAS RAILROAD...WHICH WAS DESTROYED. IT WAS THE STRONGEST
HURRICANE EVER TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE UNITED STATES. (SEE
HTTP://EN.WIKIPEDIA.ORG/WIKI/LABOR_DAY_HURRICANE FOR MORE
INFO./DETAILS.)

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........APA
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN
DATA COLLECTION.......SC

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 020806
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
406 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - A BROAD WEAK AREA OF HIGHER PRESSURE STRETCHES ACROSS
FLORIDA...RESULTING IN LIGHT EAST BREEZES ACROSS THE KEYS AND
SURROUNDING WATERS. A BIT OF LOW AND MID LEVEL DRIER AIR...ALONG WITH
THE WEAK FLOW IS KEEPING SHOWER ACTIVITY LIMITED. ONLY RECENTLY HAS
WIDELY SCATTERED AND GENERALLY WEAK SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...MOSTLY ON THE OUTER FLORIDA STRAITS. THE
WEAK BUT STEADY FLOW HAS PREVENTED MUCH IN THE WAY OF OVERNIGHT
COOLING...AND TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE MID 70S.

FORECAST - THE BROAD AREA OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH
THROUGH THE WEEK...KEEPING WINDS GENERALLY WEAK OUT OF THE EAST. THE
LOWER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALSO BE WEAK. SURFACE WINDS WILL DAILY BACK
NORTH OF EAST AS SOUTH FLORIDA WARMS. STEERING FLOW WILL ALSO
INCREASINGLY BACK DAILY TO NORTHEAST. AS A RESULT...THE BEST TRIGGERS
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE KEYS AREA
OFF OF SOUTH FLORIDA...ISLAND CLOUD LINES...AND LATE NIGHT MARITIME
SHOWERS. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE TODAY...INCREASING TO LOW THEN
MID CHANCE SHOWERS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

INCREASED UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE COMPLICATED DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES AND GULF OF MEXICO WILL GENERATE BROAD DEEP
LAYERED CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA. THE LOWER
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE KEYS IS SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD. INCREASED
MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT LOWER HEIGHTS SHOULD RESULT IN A HIGHER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN THE MEDIUM CHANCE
FOR PRECIP FROM SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
BROAD WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT MAINLY
EASTERLY BREEZES THROUGH THE WEEK. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN
LATE THIS WEEK AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA AND WINDS WILL
SLACKEN AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND GENTLE EAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL AT THE EYW AND
MTH TERMINALS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SLIM FOR BOTH TERMINALS.

&&

.CLIMATE...SEPTEMBER 2...ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER
HISTORY...IN 1935...THE EYE OF THE LABOR DAY HURRICANE MOVED
NORTHWEST ACROSS LONG KEY AND LOWER MATECUMBE KEY IN THE EVENING...
ACCOMPANIED BY A STORM TIDE 15-20 FT ABOVE MEAN LOW WATER AND AN EYE
LULL OF 55 MINUTES ON LONG KEY. ENGINEERING STUDIES INDICATED GUSTS
OF 150 TO 200 MPH FROM LOWER MATECUMBE KEY TO ISLAMORADA. OVER 400
PEOPLE WERE KILLED...MANY OF WHOM WERE WORLD WAR I VETERANS WORKING
ON THE OVERSEAS RAILROAD...WHICH WAS DESTROYED. IT WAS THE STRONGEST
HURRICANE EVER TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE UNITED STATES. (SEE
HTTP://EN.WIKIPEDIA.ORG/WIKI/LABOR_DAY_HURRICANE FOR MORE
INFO./DETAILS.)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  90  82  89  81 / 20 30 30 30
MARATHON  93  82  92  81 / 20 30 30 30

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....CLR

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 020806
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
406 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - A BROAD WEAK AREA OF HIGHER PRESSURE STRETCHES ACROSS
FLORIDA...RESULTING IN LIGHT EAST BREEZES ACROSS THE KEYS AND
SURROUNDING WATERS. A BIT OF LOW AND MID LEVEL DRIER AIR...ALONG WITH
THE WEAK FLOW IS KEEPING SHOWER ACTIVITY LIMITED. ONLY RECENTLY HAS
WIDELY SCATTERED AND GENERALLY WEAK SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...MOSTLY ON THE OUTER FLORIDA STRAITS. THE
WEAK BUT STEADY FLOW HAS PREVENTED MUCH IN THE WAY OF OVERNIGHT
COOLING...AND TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE MID 70S.

FORECAST - THE BROAD AREA OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH
THROUGH THE WEEK...KEEPING WINDS GENERALLY WEAK OUT OF THE EAST. THE
LOWER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALSO BE WEAK. SURFACE WINDS WILL DAILY BACK
NORTH OF EAST AS SOUTH FLORIDA WARMS. STEERING FLOW WILL ALSO
INCREASINGLY BACK DAILY TO NORTHEAST. AS A RESULT...THE BEST TRIGGERS
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE KEYS AREA
OFF OF SOUTH FLORIDA...ISLAND CLOUD LINES...AND LATE NIGHT MARITIME
SHOWERS. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE TODAY...INCREASING TO LOW THEN
MID CHANCE SHOWERS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

INCREASED UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE COMPLICATED DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES AND GULF OF MEXICO WILL GENERATE BROAD DEEP
LAYERED CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA. THE LOWER
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE KEYS IS SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD. INCREASED
MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT LOWER HEIGHTS SHOULD RESULT IN A HIGHER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN THE MEDIUM CHANCE
FOR PRECIP FROM SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
BROAD WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT MAINLY
EASTERLY BREEZES THROUGH THE WEEK. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN
LATE THIS WEEK AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA AND WINDS WILL
SLACKEN AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND GENTLE EAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL AT THE EYW AND
MTH TERMINALS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SLIM FOR BOTH TERMINALS.

&&

.CLIMATE...SEPTEMBER 2...ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER
HISTORY...IN 1935...THE EYE OF THE LABOR DAY HURRICANE MOVED
NORTHWEST ACROSS LONG KEY AND LOWER MATECUMBE KEY IN THE EVENING...
ACCOMPANIED BY A STORM TIDE 15-20 FT ABOVE MEAN LOW WATER AND AN EYE
LULL OF 55 MINUTES ON LONG KEY. ENGINEERING STUDIES INDICATED GUSTS
OF 150 TO 200 MPH FROM LOWER MATECUMBE KEY TO ISLAMORADA. OVER 400
PEOPLE WERE KILLED...MANY OF WHOM WERE WORLD WAR I VETERANS WORKING
ON THE OVERSEAS RAILROAD...WHICH WAS DESTROYED. IT WAS THE STRONGEST
HURRICANE EVER TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE UNITED STATES. (SEE
HTTP://EN.WIKIPEDIA.ORG/WIKI/LABOR_DAY_HURRICANE FOR MORE
INFO./DETAILS.)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  90  82  89  81 / 20 30 30 30
MARATHON  93  82  92  81 / 20 30 30 30

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....CLR

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 020226
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1026 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS THIS EVENING...AND
LATEST KEY WEST DOPPLER RADAR SCANS ARE VOID OF PRECIPITATION ECHOES.
CURRENT AIR TEMPERATURES NEAR 86F AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES NEAR 77F
YIELD HEAT INDICES NEAR 97F IN THE FLORIDA KEYS...MAKING IT A
TYPICALLY SULTRY EARLY SEPTEMBER EVENING. A GRADUALLY LOWERING SUN
ANGLE AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER SHOULD TAKE THE EDGE OFF THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY IN ANOTHER FEW WEEKS.

A REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS EVENING REVEALS AN AMORPHOUS HIGH
PRESSURE CELL CENTERED JUST EAST AND NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS...WITH AN
ILL-DEFINED RIDGE EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.
GRADIENT FLOW SOUTH OF THE RIDGE IS FAIRLY WEAK...AS ARE LOCAL
BREEZES. MOST LAND STATIONS ARE REPORTING EAST WINDS 5-10 MPH...WHILE
WIND SPEEDS AT MARINE STATIONS ARE MORE VARIABLE...RANGING FROM
7-12KT. A SUPPORTING DEEP LAYER MEAN ANTICYCLONE PREVAILS ATOP THE
SURFACE HIGH JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS...AND LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE
CLEARLY HAS PREVAILED ACROSS THE KEYS DURING THE LAST 24
HOURS...EVIDENCED BY BOTH UPPER-AIR DATA AND OBSERVED WEATHER. DATA
FROM THE KEY WEST EVENING RADIOSONDE BALLOON INDICATED MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITH SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ENERGY.
IN ADDITION...DESPITE A HIGH TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.9O
INCHES...SOME DRY POCKETS WERE PRESENT ALOFT...WITH SOME OF THAT DRY
AIR EXTENDING PRETTY FAR DOWN INTO THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE -- DEWPOINT
DEPRESSION AT 925MB WAS 7C.

THE FORECASTS PROVIDED BY THE AFTERNOON SHIFT REMAIN GENERALLY VALID
AT THIS STAGE...SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...LIGHT TO GENTLE MAINLY EAST BREEZES...AND LOW
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 80F. AS NOCTURNAL FLOW TURNS MORE CONFLUENT ACROSS
THE SERVICE AREA...A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS SURELY WILL
INITIATE...ESPECIALLY AS OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM ANDROSIAN AND
CUBAN AFTERNOON SEA-BREEZE STORMS MIGRATE INTO THE AREA.
NEVERTHELESS...EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN LATE.
&&

.MARINE...
NO ADVISORIES AND NO HEADLINES. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CELL OVER THE
SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL MOVE WESTWARD...AND EXTEND ACROSS SOUTHERN
FLORIDA OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER OR NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PERSIST ACROSS FLORIDA KEYS
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE
BREEZES ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
MVFR CEILINGS...BASED AT AROUND 2500 FEET...ARE CONCEIVABLE AT EYW
AND MTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS POSSIBILITY IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. SUSTAINED NORTHEAST
TO EAST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS EXPECTED FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE TO
ABOUT 3000 FEET.
&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1956...THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS 95 DEGREES. THIS
SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON
SEPTEMBER 1ST...A RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 59 YEARS LATER. IN
ADDITION...THIS HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 95 DEGREES IS TIED AS THE MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED IN KEY WEST DURING THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER.
TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BS
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 020226
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1026 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS THIS EVENING...AND
LATEST KEY WEST DOPPLER RADAR SCANS ARE VOID OF PRECIPITATION ECHOES.
CURRENT AIR TEMPERATURES NEAR 86F AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES NEAR 77F
YIELD HEAT INDICES NEAR 97F IN THE FLORIDA KEYS...MAKING IT A
TYPICALLY SULTRY EARLY SEPTEMBER EVENING. A GRADUALLY LOWERING SUN
ANGLE AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER SHOULD TAKE THE EDGE OFF THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY IN ANOTHER FEW WEEKS.

A REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS EVENING REVEALS AN AMORPHOUS HIGH
PRESSURE CELL CENTERED JUST EAST AND NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS...WITH AN
ILL-DEFINED RIDGE EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.
GRADIENT FLOW SOUTH OF THE RIDGE IS FAIRLY WEAK...AS ARE LOCAL
BREEZES. MOST LAND STATIONS ARE REPORTING EAST WINDS 5-10 MPH...WHILE
WIND SPEEDS AT MARINE STATIONS ARE MORE VARIABLE...RANGING FROM
7-12KT. A SUPPORTING DEEP LAYER MEAN ANTICYCLONE PREVAILS ATOP THE
SURFACE HIGH JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS...AND LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE
CLEARLY HAS PREVAILED ACROSS THE KEYS DURING THE LAST 24
HOURS...EVIDENCED BY BOTH UPPER-AIR DATA AND OBSERVED WEATHER. DATA
FROM THE KEY WEST EVENING RADIOSONDE BALLOON INDICATED MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITH SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ENERGY.
IN ADDITION...DESPITE A HIGH TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.9O
INCHES...SOME DRY POCKETS WERE PRESENT ALOFT...WITH SOME OF THAT DRY
AIR EXTENDING PRETTY FAR DOWN INTO THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE -- DEWPOINT
DEPRESSION AT 925MB WAS 7C.

THE FORECASTS PROVIDED BY THE AFTERNOON SHIFT REMAIN GENERALLY VALID
AT THIS STAGE...SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...LIGHT TO GENTLE MAINLY EAST BREEZES...AND LOW
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 80F. AS NOCTURNAL FLOW TURNS MORE CONFLUENT ACROSS
THE SERVICE AREA...A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS SURELY WILL
INITIATE...ESPECIALLY AS OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM ANDROSIAN AND
CUBAN AFTERNOON SEA-BREEZE STORMS MIGRATE INTO THE AREA.
NEVERTHELESS...EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN LATE.
&&

.MARINE...
NO ADVISORIES AND NO HEADLINES. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CELL OVER THE
SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL MOVE WESTWARD...AND EXTEND ACROSS SOUTHERN
FLORIDA OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER OR NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PERSIST ACROSS FLORIDA KEYS
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE
BREEZES ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
MVFR CEILINGS...BASED AT AROUND 2500 FEET...ARE CONCEIVABLE AT EYW
AND MTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS POSSIBILITY IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. SUSTAINED NORTHEAST
TO EAST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS EXPECTED FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE TO
ABOUT 3000 FEET.
&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1956...THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS 95 DEGREES. THIS
SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON
SEPTEMBER 1ST...A RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 59 YEARS LATER. IN
ADDITION...THIS HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 95 DEGREES IS TIED AS THE MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED IN KEY WEST DURING THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER.
TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BS
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 020226
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1026 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS THIS EVENING...AND
LATEST KEY WEST DOPPLER RADAR SCANS ARE VOID OF PRECIPITATION ECHOES.
CURRENT AIR TEMPERATURES NEAR 86F AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES NEAR 77F
YIELD HEAT INDICES NEAR 97F IN THE FLORIDA KEYS...MAKING IT A
TYPICALLY SULTRY EARLY SEPTEMBER EVENING. A GRADUALLY LOWERING SUN
ANGLE AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER SHOULD TAKE THE EDGE OFF THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY IN ANOTHER FEW WEEKS.

A REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS EVENING REVEALS AN AMORPHOUS HIGH
PRESSURE CELL CENTERED JUST EAST AND NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS...WITH AN
ILL-DEFINED RIDGE EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.
GRADIENT FLOW SOUTH OF THE RIDGE IS FAIRLY WEAK...AS ARE LOCAL
BREEZES. MOST LAND STATIONS ARE REPORTING EAST WINDS 5-10 MPH...WHILE
WIND SPEEDS AT MARINE STATIONS ARE MORE VARIABLE...RANGING FROM
7-12KT. A SUPPORTING DEEP LAYER MEAN ANTICYCLONE PREVAILS ATOP THE
SURFACE HIGH JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS...AND LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE
CLEARLY HAS PREVAILED ACROSS THE KEYS DURING THE LAST 24
HOURS...EVIDENCED BY BOTH UPPER-AIR DATA AND OBSERVED WEATHER. DATA
FROM THE KEY WEST EVENING RADIOSONDE BALLOON INDICATED MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITH SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ENERGY.
IN ADDITION...DESPITE A HIGH TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.9O
INCHES...SOME DRY POCKETS WERE PRESENT ALOFT...WITH SOME OF THAT DRY
AIR EXTENDING PRETTY FAR DOWN INTO THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE -- DEWPOINT
DEPRESSION AT 925MB WAS 7C.

THE FORECASTS PROVIDED BY THE AFTERNOON SHIFT REMAIN GENERALLY VALID
AT THIS STAGE...SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...LIGHT TO GENTLE MAINLY EAST BREEZES...AND LOW
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 80F. AS NOCTURNAL FLOW TURNS MORE CONFLUENT ACROSS
THE SERVICE AREA...A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS SURELY WILL
INITIATE...ESPECIALLY AS OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM ANDROSIAN AND
CUBAN AFTERNOON SEA-BREEZE STORMS MIGRATE INTO THE AREA.
NEVERTHELESS...EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN LATE.
&&

.MARINE...
NO ADVISORIES AND NO HEADLINES. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CELL OVER THE
SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL MOVE WESTWARD...AND EXTEND ACROSS SOUTHERN
FLORIDA OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER OR NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PERSIST ACROSS FLORIDA KEYS
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE
BREEZES ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
MVFR CEILINGS...BASED AT AROUND 2500 FEET...ARE CONCEIVABLE AT EYW
AND MTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS POSSIBILITY IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. SUSTAINED NORTHEAST
TO EAST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS EXPECTED FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE TO
ABOUT 3000 FEET.
&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1956...THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS 95 DEGREES. THIS
SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON
SEPTEMBER 1ST...A RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 59 YEARS LATER. IN
ADDITION...THIS HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 95 DEGREES IS TIED AS THE MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED IN KEY WEST DURING THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER.
TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BS
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 011916
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
316 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AT THE EARLY HOURS OF THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED ISOLATED
PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST...ONLY PRODUCING LIGHT
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS. WINDS WERE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST GENERALLY AT 5 TO KNOTS AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING.


.SHORT TERM...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED IN THE WEST MID-ATLANTIC NORTH OF PUERTO
RICO WILL LINGER AND WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOUTH FLORIDA
AND THE KEYS WILL THEN STAY BETWEEN AREAS OF LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
STARTING THIS WEEKEND...CAUSING WINDS TO DECREASE TO NEAR 5 KNOTS OR
LESS. POPS REMAIN NEAR CLIMO FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...INCREASING
OVER THE WEEKEND AS WE SWITCH TO A MORE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. AREAS OF
HIGH MOISTURE WILL MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS THE KEYS...AND WITH THE
INTERACTION OF LOCAL EFFECTS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE.


&&

.MARINE...LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TOMORROW
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION....VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.CLIMATE...IN 1980...THE DAILY RECORD RAINFALL OF 3.25" WAS RECORDED
IN KEY WEST. PRECIPITATION RECORDS HAVE BEEN KEPT SINCE 1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....APA
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 011916
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
316 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AT THE EARLY HOURS OF THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED ISOLATED
PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST...ONLY PRODUCING LIGHT
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS. WINDS WERE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST GENERALLY AT 5 TO KNOTS AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING.


.SHORT TERM...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED IN THE WEST MID-ATLANTIC NORTH OF PUERTO
RICO WILL LINGER AND WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOUTH FLORIDA
AND THE KEYS WILL THEN STAY BETWEEN AREAS OF LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
STARTING THIS WEEKEND...CAUSING WINDS TO DECREASE TO NEAR 5 KNOTS OR
LESS. POPS REMAIN NEAR CLIMO FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...INCREASING
OVER THE WEEKEND AS WE SWITCH TO A MORE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. AREAS OF
HIGH MOISTURE WILL MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS THE KEYS...AND WITH THE
INTERACTION OF LOCAL EFFECTS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE.


&&

.MARINE...LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TOMORROW
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION....VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.CLIMATE...IN 1980...THE DAILY RECORD RAINFALL OF 3.25" WAS RECORDED
IN KEY WEST. PRECIPITATION RECORDS HAVE BEEN KEPT SINCE 1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....APA
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 011916
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
316 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AT THE EARLY HOURS OF THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED ISOLATED
PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST...ONLY PRODUCING LIGHT
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS. WINDS WERE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST GENERALLY AT 5 TO KNOTS AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING.


.SHORT TERM...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED IN THE WEST MID-ATLANTIC NORTH OF PUERTO
RICO WILL LINGER AND WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOUTH FLORIDA
AND THE KEYS WILL THEN STAY BETWEEN AREAS OF LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
STARTING THIS WEEKEND...CAUSING WINDS TO DECREASE TO NEAR 5 KNOTS OR
LESS. POPS REMAIN NEAR CLIMO FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...INCREASING
OVER THE WEEKEND AS WE SWITCH TO A MORE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. AREAS OF
HIGH MOISTURE WILL MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS THE KEYS...AND WITH THE
INTERACTION OF LOCAL EFFECTS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE.


&&

.MARINE...LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TOMORROW
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION....VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.CLIMATE...IN 1980...THE DAILY RECORD RAINFALL OF 3.25" WAS RECORDED
IN KEY WEST. PRECIPITATION RECORDS HAVE BEEN KEPT SINCE 1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....APA
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 011449
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1049 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE BEING OBSERVED ON
SATELLITE AND DOPPLER RADAR RESPECTIVELY ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS
THIS MORNING. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MOVED OVER KEY WEST WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS...DISSIPATING THEN OVER THE GULF
SIDE WATERS. WINDS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 18 KNOTS.

.FORECAST...A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC...NORTH OF PUERTO RICO...WILL WEAKEN THIS WEEK AS IT EXTENDS
ACROSS MAINLAND FLORIDA. THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
EFFECTS OF THE RIDGE...KEEPING THE WINDS FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST 5
TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. PATCHES OF MOISTURE
WILL MAKE THEIR WAY THROUGH OUR LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED AS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...GENTLE BREEZES FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEK. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED HIGHER WINDS AND
WAVES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.CLIMATE...IN 1980...THE DAILY RECORD RAINFALL OF 3.25" WAS RECORDED
IN KEY WEST. PRECIPITATION RECORDS HAVE BEEN KEPT SINCE 1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....APA
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 010743
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
343 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS NOSING WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE KEYS...RESULTING IN A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
KEYS. THE COLLAPSING FLOW ALONG WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED
DRY AIR HAS LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY. ONLY A FEW WEAK SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN ABLE TO FORM RECENTLY OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS. TEMPERATURES ARE
NEAR 80 DEGREES WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S.

FORECAST - THE WEAK RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE KEYS THROUGH THE
DURATION OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST BUT WEAK...AND PRONE TO DAILY PERTURBING BY DAY TIME
HEATING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THE LOWER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE...BUT ALSO FAIRLY WEAK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT TODAY INTO
TONIGHT DUE TO THE LARGE SCALE RIDGING AND LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT
TRIGGER. BEGINNING WEDNESDAY...THE STEERING FLOW WILL AT TIMES BACK
TO NORTHEAST...BECOMING PERIODICALLY FAVORABLE FOR ACTIVITY TO MOVE
WEST SOUTHWESTWARD OFF OF SOUTH FLORIDA...AND FOR ISLAND CLOUD LINE
DEVELOPMENT. WILL ADVERTISE LOW CHANCE POPS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS SIGNIFICANT MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN UNCERTAINTY IN
THE MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE DUE TO THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVING A DIFFICULT
TIME RESOLVING THE EVOLUTION OF A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES AND GULF OF MEXICO. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE ALREADY IN PLACE MID
CHANCE POPS FROM SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THAT
SAID...SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAK.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE KEYS WILL REMAIN NEAR THE WESTERN
END OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE. NO CAUTIONS OR ADVISORIES ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR AND GENTLE SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL AT THE EYW
AND MTH TERMINALS. RAIN CHANCES ARE NEARLY NIL AT BOTH TERMINALS.

&&

.CLIMATE...SEPTEMBER 1ST...ON THIS DATE IN KEY WEST CLIMATE
HISTORY...IN 1956...THE DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 95F WAS
RECORDED. THIS IS ALSO TIED FOR THE WARMEST TEMPERATURE EVER
RECORDED IN SEPTEMBER. TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN KEY WEST DATE BACK TO
1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....CLR

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 010743
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
343 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS NOSING WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE KEYS...RESULTING IN A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
KEYS. THE COLLAPSING FLOW ALONG WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED
DRY AIR HAS LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY. ONLY A FEW WEAK SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN ABLE TO FORM RECENTLY OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS. TEMPERATURES ARE
NEAR 80 DEGREES WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S.

FORECAST - THE WEAK RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE KEYS THROUGH THE
DURATION OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST BUT WEAK...AND PRONE TO DAILY PERTURBING BY DAY TIME
HEATING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THE LOWER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE...BUT ALSO FAIRLY WEAK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT TODAY INTO
TONIGHT DUE TO THE LARGE SCALE RIDGING AND LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT
TRIGGER. BEGINNING WEDNESDAY...THE STEERING FLOW WILL AT TIMES BACK
TO NORTHEAST...BECOMING PERIODICALLY FAVORABLE FOR ACTIVITY TO MOVE
WEST SOUTHWESTWARD OFF OF SOUTH FLORIDA...AND FOR ISLAND CLOUD LINE
DEVELOPMENT. WILL ADVERTISE LOW CHANCE POPS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS SIGNIFICANT MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN UNCERTAINTY IN
THE MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE DUE TO THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVING A DIFFICULT
TIME RESOLVING THE EVOLUTION OF A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES AND GULF OF MEXICO. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE ALREADY IN PLACE MID
CHANCE POPS FROM SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THAT
SAID...SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAK.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE KEYS WILL REMAIN NEAR THE WESTERN
END OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE. NO CAUTIONS OR ADVISORIES ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR AND GENTLE SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL AT THE EYW
AND MTH TERMINALS. RAIN CHANCES ARE NEARLY NIL AT BOTH TERMINALS.

&&

.CLIMATE...SEPTEMBER 1ST...ON THIS DATE IN KEY WEST CLIMATE
HISTORY...IN 1956...THE DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 95F WAS
RECORDED. THIS IS ALSO TIED FOR THE WARMEST TEMPERATURE EVER
RECORDED IN SEPTEMBER. TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN KEY WEST DATE BACK TO
1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....CLR

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 010743
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
343 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS NOSING WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE KEYS...RESULTING IN A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
KEYS. THE COLLAPSING FLOW ALONG WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED
DRY AIR HAS LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY. ONLY A FEW WEAK SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN ABLE TO FORM RECENTLY OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS. TEMPERATURES ARE
NEAR 80 DEGREES WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S.

FORECAST - THE WEAK RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE KEYS THROUGH THE
DURATION OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST BUT WEAK...AND PRONE TO DAILY PERTURBING BY DAY TIME
HEATING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THE LOWER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE...BUT ALSO FAIRLY WEAK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT TODAY INTO
TONIGHT DUE TO THE LARGE SCALE RIDGING AND LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT
TRIGGER. BEGINNING WEDNESDAY...THE STEERING FLOW WILL AT TIMES BACK
TO NORTHEAST...BECOMING PERIODICALLY FAVORABLE FOR ACTIVITY TO MOVE
WEST SOUTHWESTWARD OFF OF SOUTH FLORIDA...AND FOR ISLAND CLOUD LINE
DEVELOPMENT. WILL ADVERTISE LOW CHANCE POPS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS SIGNIFICANT MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN UNCERTAINTY IN
THE MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE DUE TO THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVING A DIFFICULT
TIME RESOLVING THE EVOLUTION OF A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES AND GULF OF MEXICO. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE ALREADY IN PLACE MID
CHANCE POPS FROM SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THAT
SAID...SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAK.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE KEYS WILL REMAIN NEAR THE WESTERN
END OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE. NO CAUTIONS OR ADVISORIES ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR AND GENTLE SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL AT THE EYW
AND MTH TERMINALS. RAIN CHANCES ARE NEARLY NIL AT BOTH TERMINALS.

&&

.CLIMATE...SEPTEMBER 1ST...ON THIS DATE IN KEY WEST CLIMATE
HISTORY...IN 1956...THE DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 95F WAS
RECORDED. THIS IS ALSO TIED FOR THE WARMEST TEMPERATURE EVER
RECORDED IN SEPTEMBER. TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN KEY WEST DATE BACK TO
1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....CLR

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 010144
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
944 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
KBYX RADAR SHOWS NO ACTIVE PRECIPITATION ECHOES WITHIN THE KEYS
SERVICE AREA...A MARKED DOWNWARD TREND OVER THE GULF WATERS FROM
EARLIER THIS EVENING. SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY AND WINDS HAVE
SLACKENED SIGNIFICANTLY. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE IN
THE MID 80S AT THIS HOUR.

THE LATE EVENING LOCAL SOUNDING SHOWS THE LIGHT WINDS EXTENDING TO
ABOUT 4000 FEET...WITH MORE MODERATE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTH
EXTENDING TO THE MID LEVELS. THIS PROFILE WILL DEEPEN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HRRR GRAPHICS SUGGEST A LOW
LEVEL SURGE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...POSSIBLY FOCUSING
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. BUT WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
ALOFT...A SMALL AREA OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM PER
CIMSS PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP...AND THE GENERAL LACK OF ACTIVITY
CURRENTLY IN THAT AREA PER KBYX RADAR...DECIDED TO TRIM OUR
PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FIRST PERIOD. THAT ZONE UPDATE WAS RECENTLY ISSUED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE TRIMMED BY A FEW KNOTS OVER THE BULK OF THE KEYS MARINE
SERVICE AREA...BUT WILL GIVE A BIT OF CREDIT TO A MINOR SURGE FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS ADVERTISED BY THE HRRR. A MORE SIGNIFICANT DOWNWARD
WIND SPEED ADJUSTMENT IS NECESSARY IN THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS IN THE
IMMEDIATE TERM. AS WITH THE ZONES...THE EXPECTED COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE TRIMMED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...DOWN TO
ISOLATED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. A FEW PASSING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
BRINGING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...THE CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST. SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS...BUT COULD
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES.


&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........04
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....DEVANAS
DATA COLLECTION.......BWC

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 010144
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
944 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
KBYX RADAR SHOWS NO ACTIVE PRECIPITATION ECHOES WITHIN THE KEYS
SERVICE AREA...A MARKED DOWNWARD TREND OVER THE GULF WATERS FROM
EARLIER THIS EVENING. SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY AND WINDS HAVE
SLACKENED SIGNIFICANTLY. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE IN
THE MID 80S AT THIS HOUR.

THE LATE EVENING LOCAL SOUNDING SHOWS THE LIGHT WINDS EXTENDING TO
ABOUT 4000 FEET...WITH MORE MODERATE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTH
EXTENDING TO THE MID LEVELS. THIS PROFILE WILL DEEPEN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HRRR GRAPHICS SUGGEST A LOW
LEVEL SURGE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...POSSIBLY FOCUSING
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. BUT WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
ALOFT...A SMALL AREA OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM PER
CIMSS PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP...AND THE GENERAL LACK OF ACTIVITY
CURRENTLY IN THAT AREA PER KBYX RADAR...DECIDED TO TRIM OUR
PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FIRST PERIOD. THAT ZONE UPDATE WAS RECENTLY ISSUED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE TRIMMED BY A FEW KNOTS OVER THE BULK OF THE KEYS MARINE
SERVICE AREA...BUT WILL GIVE A BIT OF CREDIT TO A MINOR SURGE FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS ADVERTISED BY THE HRRR. A MORE SIGNIFICANT DOWNWARD
WIND SPEED ADJUSTMENT IS NECESSARY IN THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS IN THE
IMMEDIATE TERM. AS WITH THE ZONES...THE EXPECTED COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE TRIMMED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...DOWN TO
ISOLATED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. A FEW PASSING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
BRINGING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...THE CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST. SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS...BUT COULD
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES.


&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........04
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....DEVANAS
DATA COLLECTION.......BWC

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 010144
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
944 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
KBYX RADAR SHOWS NO ACTIVE PRECIPITATION ECHOES WITHIN THE KEYS
SERVICE AREA...A MARKED DOWNWARD TREND OVER THE GULF WATERS FROM
EARLIER THIS EVENING. SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY AND WINDS HAVE
SLACKENED SIGNIFICANTLY. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE IN
THE MID 80S AT THIS HOUR.

THE LATE EVENING LOCAL SOUNDING SHOWS THE LIGHT WINDS EXTENDING TO
ABOUT 4000 FEET...WITH MORE MODERATE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTH
EXTENDING TO THE MID LEVELS. THIS PROFILE WILL DEEPEN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HRRR GRAPHICS SUGGEST A LOW
LEVEL SURGE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...POSSIBLY FOCUSING
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. BUT WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
ALOFT...A SMALL AREA OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM PER
CIMSS PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP...AND THE GENERAL LACK OF ACTIVITY
CURRENTLY IN THAT AREA PER KBYX RADAR...DECIDED TO TRIM OUR
PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FIRST PERIOD. THAT ZONE UPDATE WAS RECENTLY ISSUED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE TRIMMED BY A FEW KNOTS OVER THE BULK OF THE KEYS MARINE
SERVICE AREA...BUT WILL GIVE A BIT OF CREDIT TO A MINOR SURGE FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS ADVERTISED BY THE HRRR. A MORE SIGNIFICANT DOWNWARD
WIND SPEED ADJUSTMENT IS NECESSARY IN THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS IN THE
IMMEDIATE TERM. AS WITH THE ZONES...THE EXPECTED COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE TRIMMED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...DOWN TO
ISOLATED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. A FEW PASSING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
BRINGING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...THE CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST. SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS...BUT COULD
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES.


&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........04
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....DEVANAS
DATA COLLECTION.......BWC

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 010144
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
944 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
KBYX RADAR SHOWS NO ACTIVE PRECIPITATION ECHOES WITHIN THE KEYS
SERVICE AREA...A MARKED DOWNWARD TREND OVER THE GULF WATERS FROM
EARLIER THIS EVENING. SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY AND WINDS HAVE
SLACKENED SIGNIFICANTLY. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE IN
THE MID 80S AT THIS HOUR.

THE LATE EVENING LOCAL SOUNDING SHOWS THE LIGHT WINDS EXTENDING TO
ABOUT 4000 FEET...WITH MORE MODERATE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTH
EXTENDING TO THE MID LEVELS. THIS PROFILE WILL DEEPEN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HRRR GRAPHICS SUGGEST A LOW
LEVEL SURGE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...POSSIBLY FOCUSING
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. BUT WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
ALOFT...A SMALL AREA OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM PER
CIMSS PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP...AND THE GENERAL LACK OF ACTIVITY
CURRENTLY IN THAT AREA PER KBYX RADAR...DECIDED TO TRIM OUR
PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FIRST PERIOD. THAT ZONE UPDATE WAS RECENTLY ISSUED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE TRIMMED BY A FEW KNOTS OVER THE BULK OF THE KEYS MARINE
SERVICE AREA...BUT WILL GIVE A BIT OF CREDIT TO A MINOR SURGE FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS ADVERTISED BY THE HRRR. A MORE SIGNIFICANT DOWNWARD
WIND SPEED ADJUSTMENT IS NECESSARY IN THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS IN THE
IMMEDIATE TERM. AS WITH THE ZONES...THE EXPECTED COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE TRIMMED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...DOWN TO
ISOLATED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. A FEW PASSING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
BRINGING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...THE CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST. SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS...BUT COULD
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES.


&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........04
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....DEVANAS
DATA COLLECTION.......BWC

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 312038
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
438 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER-LEVEL COMPOSITE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON REVEALS A
PERSISTENT DEEP LAYER MEAN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN
NORTH ATLANTIC BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE BAHAMAS. THE WESTERN FLANK OF
THIS SYSTEM HAS BUILT IN ACROSS MOST OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJACENT
STRAITS TODAY...WITH MOSTLY DIFLUENT SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILING AT THE
SURFACE ACROSS THE KEYS BETWEEN OCEAN REEF AND KEY WEST AND ADJACENT
WATERS. THE REMNANT LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER FROM
ERIKA HAS MOVED LITTLE OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS...WHILE ELONGATING ON
THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE ANTICYCLONE. A PESKY AREA OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ASCENT HAS SUPPORTED REPEATED DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE DRY TORTUGAS AND ACROSS THE
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AN ASSOCIATED LONG...SERPENTINE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS MOVED SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS...AND NOW EXTENDS FROM JUST OFFSHORE EAST CAPE SABLE...TO THE
ENTRANCE TO NORTHWEST CHANNEL...TO ABOUT HALFMOON SHOAL LIGHT. VERY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS MOST OF
THE SERVICE AREA. MEANWHILE...REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SEA
BREEZES JUST NOW BEGINNING TO ACTIVATE CONVECTION OVER CUBA...MAINLY
FROM EAST TO WEST.

CURRENTLY...AIR TEMPERATURES IN MOST KEYS ISLAND COMMUNITIES ARE NEAR
90F...WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES.

FOR TONIGHT -- WE ARE MAINTAINING HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS
EVENING...BASED MAINLY ON RECENT RADAR TRENDS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE SERVICE AREA...MAINLY AFTER DARK AS MEAN LOW-LEVEL FLOW
TRANSITIONS FROM A DIFLUENT TO A CONFLUENT FLOW CONTAINING A HIGHER
NUMBER OF BOUNDARIES THANKS TO CUBAN SEA-BREEZE CONVECTION.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY -- THE DEEP LAYER MEAN ANTICYCLONE WILL
HOLD SWAY ACROSS THE WESTERN SUBTROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC AND FLORIDA
PENINSULA...AND THIS MAY KEEP US SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE RAIN-FREE
THAN AVERAGE...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THIS ASSESSMENT.

THURSDAY THROUGH LABOR DAY -- LIGHTER BREEZES FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST
SEEM PROBABLE AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES CLOSER AND BREAKS DOWN. WE
ARE MAINTAINING 12-HOUR MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES NEAR CLIMATOLOGY...
OR 40 PERCENT...GIVEN THE LACK OF A ROBUST SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE
AND THE APPROACH OF A MIDLATITUDE CYCLONIC GYRE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
GFS MOS OUTPUT SEEMS TOO LOW FOR 12-HOUR POPS...GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC
SCENARIO AND TIME OF YEAR.
&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL WINDS SUBSIDE OVER THE
WATERS AROUND THE DRY TORTUGAS AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. A WEAKENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA...BRINGING LIGHTER
BREEZES ON TUESDAY. THIS WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN WILL REMAIN
OVER OR NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS THIS EVENING. FEW LIGHT SHOWERS COULD AFFECT THE TERMINALS
LATER TONIGHT AND THESE WILL BE ADDRESS WITH AMENDMENTS AS NECESSARY.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BETWEEN 7 AND 12 KNOTS
TODAY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  82  90  83  90 / 30 30 30 40
MARATHON  82  93  83  93 / 30 30 30 40
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING/CHESSER

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 311514
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1114 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
DATA FROM THE KEY WEST MORNING RADIOSONDE BALLOON REVEALED 24-HOUR
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT RISES THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE. THIS IS
INDICATIVE OF THE INCREASING INFLUENCE OF THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL
ANTICYCLONE. INDEED...OVERALL POTENTIAL BUOYANCY HAS DROPPED
SIGNIFICANTLY ACCORDING TO THE RADIOSONDE DATA...AND THE LOCAL
ATMOSPHERE...ALTHOUGH STILL VERY MOIST...HAS DRIED FROM YESTERDAY...
WITH FURTHER DRYING EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THE AREA AROUND DRY TORTUGAS
AND THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO REMAINS WITHIN A VERY
MOIST...UNSTABLE...AND CONVERGENT CYCLONIC FLOW AT LOW LEVELS...AND
KEY WEST DOPPLER RADAR SCANS HAVE SHOWN REPEATED DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS.

WE HAVE ADJUSTED AFTERNOON WEATHER AND RAIN CHANCES TO REFLECT THE
MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS...FLORIDA
BAY...HAWK CHANNEL...AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA VERSUS THE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS AFFECTING THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
DIGITAL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED...AND DERIVED PRODUCTS WILL BE
OUT SHORTLY.
&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FOR FRESH SOUTH BREEZES ACROSS
THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. IN ADDITION...WINDS AND SEAS
WILL BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF WATERS. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD WEST ACROSS
SOUTHERN FLORIDA...BRINGING LIGHTER BREEZES. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER OR NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS TODAY. FEW LIGHT SHOWERS COULD AFFECT THE TERMINALS AND
THESE WILL BE ADDRESS WITH AMENDMENTS AS NECESSARY. WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BETWEEN 8 AND 13 KNOTS TODAY.
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 311514
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1114 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
DATA FROM THE KEY WEST MORNING RADIOSONDE BALLOON REVEALED 24-HOUR
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT RISES THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE. THIS IS
INDICATIVE OF THE INCREASING INFLUENCE OF THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL
ANTICYCLONE. INDEED...OVERALL POTENTIAL BUOYANCY HAS DROPPED
SIGNIFICANTLY ACCORDING TO THE RADIOSONDE DATA...AND THE LOCAL
ATMOSPHERE...ALTHOUGH STILL VERY MOIST...HAS DRIED FROM YESTERDAY...
WITH FURTHER DRYING EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THE AREA AROUND DRY TORTUGAS
AND THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO REMAINS WITHIN A VERY
MOIST...UNSTABLE...AND CONVERGENT CYCLONIC FLOW AT LOW LEVELS...AND
KEY WEST DOPPLER RADAR SCANS HAVE SHOWN REPEATED DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS.

WE HAVE ADJUSTED AFTERNOON WEATHER AND RAIN CHANCES TO REFLECT THE
MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS...FLORIDA
BAY...HAWK CHANNEL...AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA VERSUS THE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS AFFECTING THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
DIGITAL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED...AND DERIVED PRODUCTS WILL BE
OUT SHORTLY.
&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FOR FRESH SOUTH BREEZES ACROSS
THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. IN ADDITION...WINDS AND SEAS
WILL BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF WATERS. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD WEST ACROSS
SOUTHERN FLORIDA...BRINGING LIGHTER BREEZES. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER OR NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS TODAY. FEW LIGHT SHOWERS COULD AFFECT THE TERMINALS AND
THESE WILL BE ADDRESS WITH AMENDMENTS AS NECESSARY. WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BETWEEN 8 AND 13 KNOTS TODAY.
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 310846
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
446 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
FROM NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE COASTAL WATERS WEST
OF TAMPA BAY. THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE IS RIGHT ON ITS
DOORSTEP...PRESSING WEST ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. THE DEPARTURE OF THE
UPPER LOW FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES HAS ALLOWED THE RIDGE
TO BUILD WEST. THE AVAILABLE MARINE OBSERVING PLATFORMS REPORT
MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BREEZES...OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO NEAR 20
KNOTS. SKIES HAVE CLEARED TO OUR SOUTH AND ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN.
CONVECTION PERSISTS TO OUR NORTHWEST AS MOISTURE CONVERGES ALONG THE
CYCLONIC CURVATURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE LOWER 80S...BUT GIVEN THE OCCASIONAL BREEZES...IT FEELS MORE
COMFORTABLE THAN A USUAL LATE AUGUST NIGHT.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
BUILD WEST TODAY AND TONIGHT...USHERING IN WEAK INHIBITION IN THE
LOWER LEVELS...DIMINISHED EAST-SOUTHEAST BREEZES...AND LOWERED RAIN
CHANCES. WE MUST NOT FORGET IT IS LATE AUGUST...AN AMBITIOUS BOX FAN
CAN INITIATE CONVECTION. THEREFORE...RAIN CHANCES OSCILLATE BETWEEN
30 AND 40 PERCENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH NO REAL DISCERNIBLE
FEATURES TO HANG OUR HATS ON. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER
90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CREEP INTO THE LOWER 80S. NO CHANGES WERE
NEEDED WITH THE INHERITED FORECAST ASIDE FROM SHAVING TODAY`S POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE EXTENDED...A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. EXPECT LIGHT BREEZES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TO PERSIST. ONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS IMAGINES A MID- LATITUDE...UPPER-
LEVEL LOW IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF ON SUNDAY...FANTASY LAND IN TIME
AND SPACE...WE SHALL SEE.

&&

.MARINE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY. MEANWHILE...A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL BUILD WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA...BRINGING LIGHTER
BREEZES...AND REMAINING OVER OR NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. SUB
VFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR AT THE TERMINALS DUE TO SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR WATERS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND DURATION
IS LOW ENOUGH TO NOT INCLUDE INTO THE TAFS. AMENDMENTS WILL BE ISSUED
AS NECESSARY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  90  82  90  82 / 40 30 30 30
MARATHON  92  82  92  82 / 40 30 30 30

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....VICKERY
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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