Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS62 KKEY 221303
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
903 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
AREAS OF RAIN WITH FEWER THUNDERSTORMS...ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE KEYS
THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE NORTHEAST TO EAST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
EVERYWHERE ACROSS THE KEYS AT THIS HOUR. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
PUSHING OFF THE NORTHEAST METROPLEX WITH A TROUGH LAYING OFF THE EAST
COAST STATES...AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
NINE...NEAR THE YUCATAN AND BAY OF CAMPECHE IS SITTING IN THE TAIL
OF THIS TROUGH...PUMPING MOISTURE INTO THE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF AND CENTRAL TO WESTERN CARIBBEAN.

.FORECAST...
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL PROVIDE THE LIFTING FOR THE
ADDED MOISTURE FROM THE DEPRESSION TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS LOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND REMAIN SOUTH OF
CUBA THROUGH 5 DAYS. THE UPPER LEVELS WILL PROVIDE GOOD VENTILATION
DUE TO THE CO-LOCATION OF RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE KEYS. SO THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL INCLUDE PERIODS OF
RAIN WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS...AND AT TIMES LOCALIZED HEADY DOWNPOURS.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT EXPECT A RIDGE TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN UNTIED
STATES...USHERING THE TROUGH TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE KEYS AREA. THIS
RIDGING WILL TURN WINDS NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND BE A HARBINGER OF A
BRIEF PERIOD OF COOL AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
THE TROUGH TO OUR NORTH IN COMBINATION WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE
NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE
THROUGH THE KEYS AREA ON SATURDAY...DRYING OUT THE ENVIRONMENT...AND
FRESHENING WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST ON ALL KEYS WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN FROM 120 EARLY THIS
MORNING TO AROUND 080 BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...TO BETWEEN 040-050 BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MEANWHILE...THE PROBABILITY OF SUB-
VFR EPISODES WILL INCREASE DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY. AWAY FROM ANY
CELLS...MOSTLY EAST WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS CAN BE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.CLIMATE...


&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....APA
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST








000
FXUS62 KKEY 221148
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
748 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
UNTIL 00Z/23RD...WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN FROM
120 EARLY THIS MORNING TO AROUND 080 BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...TO
BETWEEN 040-050 BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MEANWHILE...THE
PROBABILITY OF SUB-VFR EPISODES WILL INCREASE DURING THE COURSE OF
TODAY. AWAY FROM ANY CELLS...MOSTLY EAST WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS
CAN BE ANTICIPATED.

&&

$$

AVIATION...APA

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST







000
FXUS62 KKEY 220842
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
442 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...A DEEP AND EXPANSIVE CYCLONIC GYRE PREVAILS ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...DEFORMING AND PRESSING THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE DEEP INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE...AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM MEXICO INTO THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES. WATER VAPOR LOOPS REVEAL SEVERAL SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING
AROUND THE CYCLONE...CULMINATING IN A CONFLUENT AND ACCELERATING JET
EAST OF FLORIDA. NESTLED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...RECENTLY FORMED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) #9 CREEPS EAST AT 6 MPH...SOUTH OF A
DENIGRATED AND BROAD BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH BISECTS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. MIMIC TPW LOOPS SUMMARIZE OUR FINDINGS...DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO...BATTLING THE TRANSGRESSION OF THE CONTINENTAL AIRMASS TO ITS
NORTH. THE SURFACE PATTERN PLACES THE KEYS VERY NEAR A COL
REGION...HENCE THE SQUIRRELY BREEZES. DESPITE ALL THE
VARIABILITY...MEAN SURFACE WINDS ARE FROM THE EAST AT AROUND 10
KNOTS. THE RADAR HAS BEEN SURPRISINGLY QUIET OVERNIGHT.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE CURRENT FORECAST FROM THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER SLIDES TD 9 SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.

THE BROAD BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL INCH
SOUTHWARD TODAY. A REINFORCING SHOT OF CONTINENTAL AIR WILL SHARPEN
ITS GRADIENT TONIGHT. THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME...FLOW WILL BE WEAKLY
CYCLONIC...MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL...AND INHIBITION WILL BE
MINIMAL. THE ICING ON THE CAKE WILL BE THE FAVORABLE VENTING ALOFT.
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ONE JET-STREAK WILL HAVE MIGRATED EAST
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY A STRONGER
COUNTERPART. THIS SECOND STREAK WILL BE THE LEADING HALF OF
SHARPENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL STEER THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
SOUTHWARD. ALL-THE- WHILE...STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME
MORE CYCLONIC...A MISMASH OF THE STRETCHED TD AND THE ENCROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TO SUMMARIZE...CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY LIKELY CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. WE DO NOT FEEL CHANCES LOWER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...BUT
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH DAY 3...WILL RETAIN THE INHERITED
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...A DIGGING SHORT WAVE
WILL HERALD A DRYING WEATHER PATTERN. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL
FEATURE A SHARP DROP-OFF IN RAIN CHANCES...ACCOMPANIED BY FRESHENING
NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES. LOWER HUMIDITY...SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES...AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A STACKED AND DEEP ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...ALLOWING MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEAST BREEZES TO
SLOWLY VEER TO THE EAST.

&&

.MARINE...THE COMBINATION OF A CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND A TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE
AREA CENTERED NEAR THE YUCATAN WILL MAINTAIN A RICH VEIN OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE INTO THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE JUST NORTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL PROVIDE
THE FOCUS FOR SEVERAL EPISODES OF HEAVY RAIN OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL MERGE WITH THE
TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE VICINITY OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...RESULTING IN FRESHENING NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES
ACROSS ALL FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...A MUCH WETTER THAN NORMAL WEATHER PATTERN HAS SPREAD
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND BROADER SURROUNDING AREA. AS A
RESULT...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE ISLAND
TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CURRENTLY...A BREAK IN THE
WEATHER IS KEEPING VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS...AND THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST...BUT CAN BE STRONG
AND GUSTY NEAR THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  83  75  83  75 / 80 80 80 70
MARATHON  83  75  83  75 / 80 80 80 70

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....11
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST







000
FXUS62 KKEY 220206
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1006 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
BOTH SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THIS EVENING INDICATE
OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS MOST OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS. MULTIPLE LAYERS IN THE ATMOSPHERE ARE POPULATED WITH NUMEROUS
CLOUD VARIETIES...INCLUDING PRECIPITATING ALTOSTRATUS AND A FEW
CUMULONIMBUS TOWERS OVER OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. AFTER A CLOUDY
AND RAINY DAY...MANY ISLAND COMMUNITIES ARE NOW RAIN-FREE. HOWEVER...
IT REMAINS DAMP AND MUGGY WITH BOTH AIR AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 70S. THE KEY WEST EVENING RAWINSONDE OBSERVATION INDICATED A
NEARLY SATURATED LAYER BETWEEN ABOUT 10000-25000 FEET ELEVATION...
WITH DRIER AIR BELOW. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE THERMODYNAMIC STRATIFICATION
WAS ANALYZED. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ENERGY WAS
PRESENT AS A RESULT OF A RAIN-COOLED BOUNDARY LAYER. CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION ENERGY LIKELY IS MUCH LESS OVER THE WARMER WATERS
SURROUNDING THE KEYS WHERE AIR TEMPERATURES ARE HOVERING NEAR 80F.

LARGE-SCALE FORCING AT BOTH LOW AND HIGH ALTITUDES ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND JET STREAM CIRCULATION...RESPECTIVELY...APPEARS
TO FAVOR CONTINUED DEEP ASCENT OVER THE SERVICE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL LEAD TO FURTHER DESTABILIZATION OF TROPOSPHERIC COLUMNS AND
LOWERING OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN AN ATMOSPHERE ALREADY NEAR
SATURATION. THE RESULT WILL BE THE LIKELY INCREASE IN RAIN...
SHOWER...AND THUNDERSTORM AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK. OUR PRESENT
FORECASTS INDICATE A HIGH PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE RAIN
OVERNIGHT...AND WE SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THIS PROGNOSIS. THE
DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE AND DERIVED TEXT AND GRAPHICS HAVE ALL BEEN
UPDATED...AND ARE AVAILABLE VIA THE USUAL CHANNELS.
&&

.MARINE...
THE COMBINATION OF A CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND A TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED
NEAR THE YUCATAN WILL MAINTAIN A RICH VEIN OF TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO
THE FLORIDA KEYS OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONTAL ZONE JUST NORTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS
FOR SEVERAL EPISODES OF HEAVY RAIN OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL MERGE WITH THE TROPICAL LOW
PRESSURE AREA IN THE VICINITY OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN FRESHENING NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES ACROSS
ALL FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS.
&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 22/24Z...RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL BE PRESENT IN MORE
OBSERVATIONS THAN NOT. REDUCTIONS TO MVFR OR IFR WILL ONLY OCCUR
WITH THE MORE VIGOROUS SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER...WHICH
WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME. THE ONLY FEATURE OF NOTE ON RADAR AT THIS
TIME IS AN EXPANDING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
WHICH IS SET TO IMPACT EYW BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z. IMPACTS AT MTH FROM
THIS FEATURE ARE DOUBTFUL.
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....MSB
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST









000
FXUS62 KKEY 220206
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1006 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
BOTH SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THIS EVENING INDICATE
OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS MOST OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS. MULTIPLE LAYERS IN THE ATMOSPHERE ARE POPULATED WITH NUMEROUS
CLOUD VARIETIES...INCLUDING PRECIPITATING ALTOSTRATUS AND A FEW
CUMULONIMBUS TOWERS OVER OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. AFTER A CLOUDY
AND RAINY DAY...MANY ISLAND COMMUNITIES ARE NOW RAIN-FREE. HOWEVER...
IT REMAINS DAMP AND MUGGY WITH BOTH AIR AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 70S. THE KEY WEST EVENING RAWINSONDE OBSERVATION INDICATED A
NEARLY SATURATED LAYER BETWEEN ABOUT 10000-25000 FEET ELEVATION...
WITH DRIER AIR BELOW. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE THERMODYNAMIC STRATIFICATION
WAS ANALYZED. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ENERGY WAS
PRESENT AS A RESULT OF A RAIN-COOLED BOUNDARY LAYER. CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION ENERGY LIKELY IS MUCH LESS OVER THE WARMER WATERS
SURROUNDING THE KEYS WHERE AIR TEMPERATURES ARE HOVERING NEAR 80F.

LARGE-SCALE FORCING AT BOTH LOW AND HIGH ALTITUDES ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND JET STREAM CIRCULATION...RESPECTIVELY...APPEARS
TO FAVOR CONTINUED DEEP ASCENT OVER THE SERVICE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL LEAD TO FURTHER DESTABILIZATION OF TROPOSPHERIC COLUMNS AND
LOWERING OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN AN ATMOSPHERE ALREADY NEAR
SATURATION. THE RESULT WILL BE THE LIKELY INCREASE IN RAIN...
SHOWER...AND THUNDERSTORM AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK. OUR PRESENT
FORECASTS INDICATE A HIGH PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE RAIN
OVERNIGHT...AND WE SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THIS PROGNOSIS. THE
DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE AND DERIVED TEXT AND GRAPHICS HAVE ALL BEEN
UPDATED...AND ARE AVAILABLE VIA THE USUAL CHANNELS.
&&

.MARINE...
THE COMBINATION OF A CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND A TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED
NEAR THE YUCATAN WILL MAINTAIN A RICH VEIN OF TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO
THE FLORIDA KEYS OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONTAL ZONE JUST NORTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS
FOR SEVERAL EPISODES OF HEAVY RAIN OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL MERGE WITH THE TROPICAL LOW
PRESSURE AREA IN THE VICINITY OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN FRESHENING NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES ACROSS
ALL FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS.
&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 22/24Z...RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL BE PRESENT IN MORE
OBSERVATIONS THAN NOT. REDUCTIONS TO MVFR OR IFR WILL ONLY OCCUR
WITH THE MORE VIGOROUS SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER...WHICH
WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME. THE ONLY FEATURE OF NOTE ON RADAR AT THIS
TIME IS AN EXPANDING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
WHICH IS SET TO IMPACT EYW BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z. IMPACTS AT MTH FROM
THIS FEATURE ARE DOUBTFUL.
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....MSB
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST









000
FXUS62 KKEY 211849
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
249 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
A LARGE AREA OF STRATOFORM RAIN IS ENVELOPING THE ISLAND CHAIN AND
SURROUNDING WATERS AT THIS HOUR. FROM THE KBYX RADAR WE CAN SEE A
MESO SCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX SPINNING TOWARD THE LOWER KEYS. ANALYSIS
INDICATES A STALLED FRONT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AND BACK TO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT THE C-MAN STATIONS REPORTING
AROUND THE ISLANDS...WITH NEAR 5 KNOTS REPORTED AT THE ISLAND
TERMINALS.

.FORECAST SHORT TERM (THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
THE STALLED TROUGH TO OUR NORTH PLUS THE WET ENVIRONMENT OVER THE
KEYS...AS OBSERVED BY THE MORNING SOUNDING...IS VERY WET...AND
FAIRLY UNSTABLE. THE LINGERING TROUGH TO OUR NORTH IS TRAPPING
MODERATE ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE WAVERING ACROSS THE KEYS AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO REFLECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE TROUGH...A WEAK
AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS BEING INVESTIGATED BY A RECON
FLIGHT...IS PUMPING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE KEYS ENVIRONMENT.

ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST...WE WILL KEEP
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND AT LEAST EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING BEFORE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA. WITH THIS HIGH PRESSURE EXPECT RAIN
CHANCES TO DIMINISH AND WINDS TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE RIDGE DOMINATES KEYS WEATHER THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL CONTINUE ON THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
FLORIDA STRAITS WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS
ON THURSDAY...SPREADING ACROSS THE ACROSS THE ENTIRE KEYS COASTAL
WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
UNTIL 12Z/22ND...EXPECT AT LEAST A COUPLE OF SUB-VFR EPISODES AT THE
KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS FOR THE BALANCE OF THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. AWAY FROM CELLS...MOSTLY EAST WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS CAN
BE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
OCTOBER 21ST...ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN
1883...THE DAILY RECORD RAINFALL OF 8.23" WAS RECORDED.
PRECIPITATION RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  75  82  75  81 / 80 80 80 80
MARATHON  74  82  74  81 / 80 80 80 80

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....APA
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST








000
FXUS62 KKEY 211331
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
931 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
THE LARGE SCALE VIEW IS SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WITH A TROUGH STRETCHING BACK TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE
EASTERN SEA BOARD...THEN ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND BACK TO
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE MIMIC TWP DERIVED PRODUCT SHOWS
A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA
AND WESTWARD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE KBYX RADAR HAS PLENTY OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY...WITH AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
LOWER KEYS...WHILE THE COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS IS INCREASING AT
THIS HOUR. WINDS ARE MAINLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND GENTLE TO LIGHT
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS.

.FORECAST (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE...WITH A TELECONNECTION TO THE TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE...AND
HAS SHOWN A BURST OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS TROUGH IS SPREADING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE TROUGH WILL PROMOTE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AND AN UPDATE TO THE EXISTING FORECAST MAY
BE REQUIRED TO RAISE RAIN CHANCES TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
SHORT TERM THIS MORNING FOR THE NEED FOR AN UPDATE. OTHERWISE THE
CURRENT FORECAST RESOLUTION WILL ONLY NEED FINE TUNING FOR
CONSISTENCY.

&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL CONTINUE ON THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA STRAITS WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE
OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS ON THURSDAY...SPREADING ACROSS THE ACROSS
THE ENTIRE KEYS COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
UNTIL 00Z/22ND...EXPECT SEVERAL SUB-VFR EPISODES AT THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON TERMINALS FOR THE BALANCE OF TODAY AND THIS EVENING. AWAY
FROM CELLS...SOUTHEAST WINDS OF LESS THAN 10 KNOTS WILL LIKELY TURN
NORTHEAST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
OCTOBER 21ST...ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN
1883...THE DAILY RECORD RAINFALL OF 8.23" WAS RECORDED.
PRECIPITATION RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....APA
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST







000
FXUS62 KKEY 211331
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
931 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
THE LARGE SCALE VIEW IS SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WITH A TROUGH STRETCHING BACK TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE
EASTERN SEA BOARD...THEN ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND BACK TO
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE MIMIC TWP DERIVED PRODUCT SHOWS
A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA
AND WESTWARD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE KBYX RADAR HAS PLENTY OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY...WITH AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
LOWER KEYS...WHILE THE COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS IS INCREASING AT
THIS HOUR. WINDS ARE MAINLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND GENTLE TO LIGHT
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS.

.FORECAST (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE...WITH A TELECONNECTION TO THE TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE...AND
HAS SHOWN A BURST OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS TROUGH IS SPREADING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE TROUGH WILL PROMOTE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AND AN UPDATE TO THE EXISTING FORECAST MAY
BE REQUIRED TO RAISE RAIN CHANCES TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
SHORT TERM THIS MORNING FOR THE NEED FOR AN UPDATE. OTHERWISE THE
CURRENT FORECAST RESOLUTION WILL ONLY NEED FINE TUNING FOR
CONSISTENCY.

&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL CONTINUE ON THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA STRAITS WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE
OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS ON THURSDAY...SPREADING ACROSS THE ACROSS
THE ENTIRE KEYS COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
UNTIL 00Z/22ND...EXPECT SEVERAL SUB-VFR EPISODES AT THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON TERMINALS FOR THE BALANCE OF TODAY AND THIS EVENING. AWAY
FROM CELLS...SOUTHEAST WINDS OF LESS THAN 10 KNOTS WILL LIKELY TURN
NORTHEAST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
OCTOBER 21ST...ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN
1883...THE DAILY RECORD RAINFALL OF 8.23" WAS RECORDED.
PRECIPITATION RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....APA
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST








000
FXUS62 KKEY 211203
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
803 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
UNTIL 00Z/22ND...EXPECT A CEILING OF BETWEEN 100 AND 150 TO
PREDOMINATE WITH A FEW SUB-VFR EPISODES POSSIBLE FOR THE BALANCE OF
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. AWAY FROM CELLS...SOUTHEAST WINDS OF LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS WILL LIKELY TURN NORTHEAST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

$$

AVIATION...APA

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST







000
FXUS62 KKEY 211203
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
803 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
UNTIL 00Z/22ND...EXPECT A CEILING OF BETWEEN 100 AND 150 TO
PREDOMINATE WITH A FEW SUB-VFR EPISODES POSSIBLE FOR THE BALANCE OF
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. AWAY FROM CELLS...SOUTHEAST WINDS OF LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS WILL LIKELY TURN NORTHEAST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

$$

AVIATION...APA

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST






000
FXUS62 KKEY 211203
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
803 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
UNTIL 00Z/22ND...EXPECT A CEILING OF BETWEEN 100 AND 150 TO
PREDOMINATE WITH A FEW SUB-VFR EPISODES POSSIBLE FOR THE BALANCE OF
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. AWAY FROM CELLS...SOUTHEAST WINDS OF LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS WILL LIKELY TURN NORTHEAST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

$$

AVIATION...APA

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST







000
FXUS62 KKEY 211203
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
803 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
UNTIL 00Z/22ND...EXPECT A CEILING OF BETWEEN 100 AND 150 TO
PREDOMINATE WITH A FEW SUB-VFR EPISODES POSSIBLE FOR THE BALANCE OF
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. AWAY FROM CELLS...SOUTHEAST WINDS OF LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS WILL LIKELY TURN NORTHEAST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

$$

AVIATION...APA

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST






000
FXUS62 KKEY 210718
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
320 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES
OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE CLOUDY. WINDS OVER LAND ARE SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH NEAR 10 MPH. C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID 70S IN RAIN
COOLED AREAS TO NEAR 80 DEGREES ELSEWHERE.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST WILL BE MUCH HIGHER THAN USUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF DEEP...TROPICAL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY MERGE WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OR NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IF THIS MERGER TAKES
PLACE...SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN IS LIKELY IN THE FLORIDA KEYS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE
EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE ENTERING THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN SUNDAY. AN
ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL ADVERTISE GRADUALLY
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES. THE ANTICIPATED PRESENCE OF A RELATIVELY
DRY AIR MASS OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR NO MORE
THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ON ALL
KEYS COASTAL WATERS TODAY. NO ADVISORIES EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS THURSDAY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND HAWK CHANNEL THURSDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
BE REQUIRED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC AND GULF OF
MEXICO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
BE REQUIRED FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS SATURDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...HAWK
CHANNEL...AND FLORIDA BAY SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
RAIN CHANCES ARE HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR BOTH TERMINALS. HOWEVER...
GIVEN RECENT CONVECTION WHICH IMPACTED BOTH TERMINALS...RAIN FREE
VFR WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING. THEREAFTER...
DESPITE WINDS BACKING TO THE NORTHEAST...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIKELY
AT BOTH TERMINALS...COMPRISED OF IFR VIS...MVFR CIGS...AND
CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
OCTOBER 21ST...ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN
1883...THE DAILY RECORD RAINFALL OF 8.23" WAS RECORDED.
PRECIPITATION RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  83 75 84 76 / 50 60 70 70
MARATHON  83 74 84 75 / 50 60 70 70

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION/CLIMATE/NOWCASTS....CLR

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST






000
FXUS62 KKEY 210718
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
320 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES
OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE CLOUDY. WINDS OVER LAND ARE SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH NEAR 10 MPH. C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID 70S IN RAIN
COOLED AREAS TO NEAR 80 DEGREES ELSEWHERE.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST WILL BE MUCH HIGHER THAN USUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF DEEP...TROPICAL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY MERGE WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OR NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IF THIS MERGER TAKES
PLACE...SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN IS LIKELY IN THE FLORIDA KEYS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE
EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE ENTERING THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN SUNDAY. AN
ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL ADVERTISE GRADUALLY
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES. THE ANTICIPATED PRESENCE OF A RELATIVELY
DRY AIR MASS OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR NO MORE
THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ON ALL
KEYS COASTAL WATERS TODAY. NO ADVISORIES EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS THURSDAY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND HAWK CHANNEL THURSDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
BE REQUIRED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC AND GULF OF
MEXICO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
BE REQUIRED FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS SATURDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...HAWK
CHANNEL...AND FLORIDA BAY SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
RAIN CHANCES ARE HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR BOTH TERMINALS. HOWEVER...
GIVEN RECENT CONVECTION WHICH IMPACTED BOTH TERMINALS...RAIN FREE
VFR WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING. THEREAFTER...
DESPITE WINDS BACKING TO THE NORTHEAST...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIKELY
AT BOTH TERMINALS...COMPRISED OF IFR VIS...MVFR CIGS...AND
CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
OCTOBER 21ST...ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN
1883...THE DAILY RECORD RAINFALL OF 8.23" WAS RECORDED.
PRECIPITATION RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  83 75 84 76 / 50 60 70 70
MARATHON  83 74 84 75 / 50 60 70 70

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION/CLIMATE/NOWCASTS....CLR

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST







000
FXUS62 KKEY 210250
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1050 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
BANDS OF SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM HAVE DEVELOPED
REPEATEDLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE LAST
FEW HOURS...DUMPING ANYWHERE FROM 1-4 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH
ISOLATED LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. A FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH 1215 AM EDT. OTHER SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SERVICE AREA. CURRENT
AIR TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM A RAIN-COOLED 73F AT MARATHON TO 80F IN
KEY WEST AND 82F ALONG MUCH OF THE FLORIDA REEF TRACT. THE KEY WEST
EVENING RADIOSONDE OBSERVATION REVEALED A DEEP LAYER OF RICH MOISTURE
AND A COMPARISON OF UPPER-AIR DATA OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS INDICATES A
DRAMATIC INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND DECREASE IN STATIC STABILITY OWING
TO THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT LAST NIGHT.

BOTH DIGITAL AND DERIVED FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN LIKELY OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR MIDDLE KEYS
COMMUNITIES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.
&&

.MARINE...
NO ADVISORIES AND NO HEADLINES. HOWEVER...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
HIGHER IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. A
SLOWLY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL
MOVE STEADILY EASTWARD TOWARD THE FLORIDA KEYS...OVERNIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 21/18Z...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT EYW AND MTH.
WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE FOR TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MULTIPLE CLOUD DECKS WILL BE PREVALENT DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF RICH
TROPICAL MOISTURE. SUB VFR GROUPS HAVE BEEN LEFT OUT OF THE TAF DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY. TIMELY AMENDMENTS WILL BE ISSUED BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS.
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....VICKERY
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST








000
FXUS62 KKEY 210250
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1050 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
BANDS OF SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM HAVE DEVELOPED
REPEATEDLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE LAST
FEW HOURS...DUMPING ANYWHERE FROM 1-4 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH
ISOLATED LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. A FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH 1215 AM EDT. OTHER SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SERVICE AREA. CURRENT
AIR TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM A RAIN-COOLED 73F AT MARATHON TO 80F IN
KEY WEST AND 82F ALONG MUCH OF THE FLORIDA REEF TRACT. THE KEY WEST
EVENING RADIOSONDE OBSERVATION REVEALED A DEEP LAYER OF RICH MOISTURE
AND A COMPARISON OF UPPER-AIR DATA OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS INDICATES A
DRAMATIC INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND DECREASE IN STATIC STABILITY OWING
TO THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT LAST NIGHT.

BOTH DIGITAL AND DERIVED FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN LIKELY OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR MIDDLE KEYS
COMMUNITIES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.
&&

.MARINE...
NO ADVISORIES AND NO HEADLINES. HOWEVER...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
HIGHER IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. A
SLOWLY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL
MOVE STEADILY EASTWARD TOWARD THE FLORIDA KEYS...OVERNIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 21/18Z...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT EYW AND MTH.
WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE FOR TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MULTIPLE CLOUD DECKS WILL BE PREVALENT DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF RICH
TROPICAL MOISTURE. SUB VFR GROUPS HAVE BEEN LEFT OUT OF THE TAF DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY. TIMELY AMENDMENTS WILL BE ISSUED BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS.
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....VICKERY
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST









000
FXUS62 KKEY 210250
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1050 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
BANDS OF SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM HAVE DEVELOPED
REPEATEDLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE LAST
FEW HOURS...DUMPING ANYWHERE FROM 1-4 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH
ISOLATED LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. A FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH 1215 AM EDT. OTHER SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SERVICE AREA. CURRENT
AIR TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM A RAIN-COOLED 73F AT MARATHON TO 80F IN
KEY WEST AND 82F ALONG MUCH OF THE FLORIDA REEF TRACT. THE KEY WEST
EVENING RADIOSONDE OBSERVATION REVEALED A DEEP LAYER OF RICH MOISTURE
AND A COMPARISON OF UPPER-AIR DATA OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS INDICATES A
DRAMATIC INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND DECREASE IN STATIC STABILITY OWING
TO THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT LAST NIGHT.

BOTH DIGITAL AND DERIVED FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN LIKELY OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR MIDDLE KEYS
COMMUNITIES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.
&&

.MARINE...
NO ADVISORIES AND NO HEADLINES. HOWEVER...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
HIGHER IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. A
SLOWLY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL
MOVE STEADILY EASTWARD TOWARD THE FLORIDA KEYS...OVERNIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 21/18Z...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT EYW AND MTH.
WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE FOR TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MULTIPLE CLOUD DECKS WILL BE PREVALENT DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF RICH
TROPICAL MOISTURE. SUB VFR GROUPS HAVE BEEN LEFT OUT OF THE TAF DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY. TIMELY AMENDMENTS WILL BE ISSUED BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS.
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....VICKERY
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST









000
FXUS62 KKEY 210250
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1050 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
BANDS OF SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM HAVE DEVELOPED
REPEATEDLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE LAST
FEW HOURS...DUMPING ANYWHERE FROM 1-4 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH
ISOLATED LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. A FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH 1215 AM EDT. OTHER SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SERVICE AREA. CURRENT
AIR TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM A RAIN-COOLED 73F AT MARATHON TO 80F IN
KEY WEST AND 82F ALONG MUCH OF THE FLORIDA REEF TRACT. THE KEY WEST
EVENING RADIOSONDE OBSERVATION REVEALED A DEEP LAYER OF RICH MOISTURE
AND A COMPARISON OF UPPER-AIR DATA OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS INDICATES A
DRAMATIC INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND DECREASE IN STATIC STABILITY OWING
TO THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT LAST NIGHT.

BOTH DIGITAL AND DERIVED FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN LIKELY OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR MIDDLE KEYS
COMMUNITIES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.
&&

.MARINE...
NO ADVISORIES AND NO HEADLINES. HOWEVER...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
HIGHER IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. A
SLOWLY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL
MOVE STEADILY EASTWARD TOWARD THE FLORIDA KEYS...OVERNIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 21/18Z...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT EYW AND MTH.
WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE FOR TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MULTIPLE CLOUD DECKS WILL BE PREVALENT DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF RICH
TROPICAL MOISTURE. SUB VFR GROUPS HAVE BEEN LEFT OUT OF THE TAF DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY. TIMELY AMENDMENTS WILL BE ISSUED BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS.
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....VICKERY
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST








000
FXUS62 KKEY 201908
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
308 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - A HIGH CELL MOVING OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST IS BEGINNING
TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OPEN NORTH ATLANTIC. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST BREEZES PREVAIL ACROSS THE KEYS. THIS FLOW IS
BRINGING IN A MUCH MORE MOIST SURFACE LAYER...AND DEW POINTS ARE
NOW IN THE MID 70S IN MUCH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...WHILE STILL IN THE
UPPER 60S ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. CLOUD COVER HAS MANAGED TO HOLD
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON. A BROAD LOWER LEVEL
SWATH OF MUCH HIGHER MOISTURE WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT IS MIGRATING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. AS A
RESULT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION.

FORECAST - RAIN CHANCES IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE HIGHEST TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS THE ZONE OF LOW LEVEL LIFT CONTINUES
TO TRAVERSE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. WILL
MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
RELAX AS THE HIGH CELL TO OUR NORTH CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED.

ON TUESDAY...THE KEYS WILL BE SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF A COL...BETWEEN
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES...AND
FALLING PRESSURE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN. LIGHT
MAINLY EAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL. AMPLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT THE WEAK FLOW AT THE SURFACE...DECELERATING FLOW THROUGH
THE LOWER LEVELS...AND THE MAIN ZONE OF LOWER LEVEL LIFT SHIFTING
NORTH OF OUR AREA SHOULD RESULT IN LOWER COVERAGE TOMORROW INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT. WILL HOLD ON TO HIGH CHANCE FOR THESE PERIODS...WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.

THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WITH THE AID OF
A COUPLE OF PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND
GROW IN SIZE AS IT MIGRATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE YUCATAN TOWARDS
FLORIDA AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. LOCAL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
ACCELERATE GRADUALLY...POSSIBLY BECOMING BREEZY WEDNESDAY NIGHT OUT
OF THE EAST. AS THIS LOW MOVES NEARER THE FLORIDA KEYS...MOIST LOW
LEVEL CYCLONIC CONFLUENT FLOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE AT LEAST
A PERIOD OR TWO OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. THERE
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE STILL VERY YOUNG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND EXACT TIMING OF SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN ONLY BE
PINNED DOWN TO THE EARLY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY TIME FRAME. WILL HOLD
ONTO LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME. WILL GRADUALLY BACK OFF ON POPS
MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST...AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL SLACKEN OVERNIGHT AS A HIGH
CELL MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD.
LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY.
A GROWING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MIGRATING EASTWARD TOWARDS FLORIDA AND
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL RESULT IN WINDS
ACCELERATING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A MIX OF CAUTIONS AND ADVISORIES MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR KEYS WATERS IN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THROUGH THE
DURATION OF THE FORECAST. WINDS WILL STEADILY BACK FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD. STAY TUNED...AS THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING. PASSING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF SHOWERS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP VICINITY
SHOWERS IN THE FORECASTS THROUGH THE FORECAST DURATION AND INCLUDE A
PROB30 FOR MVFR CONDITIONS TOMORROW FROM 09Z TO 15Z.SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 KNOTS...AND GUSTY AROUND SHOWERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  76  84  76  85 / 60 60 50 60
MARATHON  76  84  76  85 / 60 60 50 60

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....DEVANAS
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST







000
FXUS62 KKEY 201908
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
308 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - A HIGH CELL MOVING OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST IS BEGINNING
TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OPEN NORTH ATLANTIC. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST BREEZES PREVAIL ACROSS THE KEYS. THIS FLOW IS
BRINGING IN A MUCH MORE MOIST SURFACE LAYER...AND DEW POINTS ARE
NOW IN THE MID 70S IN MUCH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...WHILE STILL IN THE
UPPER 60S ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. CLOUD COVER HAS MANAGED TO HOLD
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON. A BROAD LOWER LEVEL
SWATH OF MUCH HIGHER MOISTURE WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT IS MIGRATING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. AS A
RESULT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION.

FORECAST - RAIN CHANCES IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE HIGHEST TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS THE ZONE OF LOW LEVEL LIFT CONTINUES
TO TRAVERSE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. WILL
MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
RELAX AS THE HIGH CELL TO OUR NORTH CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED.

ON TUESDAY...THE KEYS WILL BE SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF A COL...BETWEEN
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES...AND
FALLING PRESSURE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN. LIGHT
MAINLY EAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL. AMPLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT THE WEAK FLOW AT THE SURFACE...DECELERATING FLOW THROUGH
THE LOWER LEVELS...AND THE MAIN ZONE OF LOWER LEVEL LIFT SHIFTING
NORTH OF OUR AREA SHOULD RESULT IN LOWER COVERAGE TOMORROW INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT. WILL HOLD ON TO HIGH CHANCE FOR THESE PERIODS...WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.

THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WITH THE AID OF
A COUPLE OF PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND
GROW IN SIZE AS IT MIGRATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE YUCATAN TOWARDS
FLORIDA AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. LOCAL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
ACCELERATE GRADUALLY...POSSIBLY BECOMING BREEZY WEDNESDAY NIGHT OUT
OF THE EAST. AS THIS LOW MOVES NEARER THE FLORIDA KEYS...MOIST LOW
LEVEL CYCLONIC CONFLUENT FLOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE AT LEAST
A PERIOD OR TWO OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. THERE
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE STILL VERY YOUNG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND EXACT TIMING OF SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN ONLY BE
PINNED DOWN TO THE EARLY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY TIME FRAME. WILL HOLD
ONTO LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME. WILL GRADUALLY BACK OFF ON POPS
MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST...AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL SLACKEN OVERNIGHT AS A HIGH
CELL MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD.
LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY.
A GROWING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MIGRATING EASTWARD TOWARDS FLORIDA AND
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL RESULT IN WINDS
ACCELERATING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A MIX OF CAUTIONS AND ADVISORIES MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR KEYS WATERS IN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THROUGH THE
DURATION OF THE FORECAST. WINDS WILL STEADILY BACK FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD. STAY TUNED...AS THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING. PASSING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF SHOWERS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP VICINITY
SHOWERS IN THE FORECASTS THROUGH THE FORECAST DURATION AND INCLUDE A
PROB30 FOR MVFR CONDITIONS TOMORROW FROM 09Z TO 15Z.SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 KNOTS...AND GUSTY AROUND SHOWERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  76  84  76  85 / 60 60 50 60
MARATHON  76  84  76  85 / 60 60 50 60

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....DEVANAS
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST






000
FXUS62 KKEY 201436
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1036 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS IS GENERATING
LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS.
INCREASED MOISTURE THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS HAS BEEN PUSHED NORTHWARD
ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS AIR MASS CHANGE ALSO ERASED THE HEFTY INVERSION
THAT PREVENTED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. A SWATH OF
SHOWERS SPREAD NORTHWARD FROM CUBA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND ARE NOW
MAKING THEIR WAY SLOWLY THROUGH THE UPPER KEYS AND ADJACENT WATERS.
SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE CLIMBED ALMOST 10 DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO A BIT HIGHER...IN THE LOWER 80S.

SHORT TERM UPDATE (THIS AFTERNOON) - SURFACE WINDS WILL HOLD AROUND
CURRENT SPEEDS...AS THE HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED NEAR THE CAROLINAS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL TREND DOWNWARDS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THIS ROUND OF SHOWERS FINALLY EXITS THE UPPER
KEYS. WILL LOWER POPS TO SLIGHT AS THE SITUATION WARRANTS. MUGGIER
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S AND
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 80S.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ON KEYS
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO A HIGH CELL CENTERED NEAR THE CAROLINA
COAST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED HIGH MIGRATES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. PASSING ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING
AND LOCATION OF SHOWERS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE
TERMINAL FORECAST. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP VICINITY SHOWERS IN THE
FORECASTS THROUGH THE FORECAST DURATION. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 KNOTS...AND GUSTY AROUND SHOWERS.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....DEVANAS
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST






000
FXUS62 KKEY 201436
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1036 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS IS GENERATING
LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS.
INCREASED MOISTURE THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS HAS BEEN PUSHED NORTHWARD
ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS AIR MASS CHANGE ALSO ERASED THE HEFTY INVERSION
THAT PREVENTED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. A SWATH OF
SHOWERS SPREAD NORTHWARD FROM CUBA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND ARE NOW
MAKING THEIR WAY SLOWLY THROUGH THE UPPER KEYS AND ADJACENT WATERS.
SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE CLIMBED ALMOST 10 DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO A BIT HIGHER...IN THE LOWER 80S.

SHORT TERM UPDATE (THIS AFTERNOON) - SURFACE WINDS WILL HOLD AROUND
CURRENT SPEEDS...AS THE HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED NEAR THE CAROLINAS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL TREND DOWNWARDS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THIS ROUND OF SHOWERS FINALLY EXITS THE UPPER
KEYS. WILL LOWER POPS TO SLIGHT AS THE SITUATION WARRANTS. MUGGIER
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S AND
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 80S.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ON KEYS
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO A HIGH CELL CENTERED NEAR THE CAROLINA
COAST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED HIGH MIGRATES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. PASSING ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING
AND LOCATION OF SHOWERS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE
TERMINAL FORECAST. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP VICINITY SHOWERS IN THE
FORECASTS THROUGH THE FORECAST DURATION. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 KNOTS...AND GUSTY AROUND SHOWERS.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....DEVANAS
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST







000
FXUS62 KKEY 201129
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
729 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. PASSING ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING
AND LOCATION OF SHOWERS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE
TERMINAL FORECAST. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP VICINITY SHOWERS IN THE
FORECASTS THROUGH THE FORECAST DURATION. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 KNOTS...AND GUSTY AROUND SHOWERS.

&&

$$

AVIATION...DEVANAS

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST







000
FXUS62 KKEY 201129
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
729 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. PASSING ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING
AND LOCATION OF SHOWERS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE
TERMINAL FORECAST. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP VICINITY SHOWERS IN THE
FORECASTS THROUGH THE FORECAST DURATION. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 KNOTS...AND GUSTY AROUND SHOWERS.

&&

$$

AVIATION...DEVANAS

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST






000
FXUS62 KKEY 200847
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
450 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS. ELSEWHERE...KBYX DETECTS NO
PRECIPITATION ECHOES. SKIES OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE MOSTLY CLEAR.
WINDS OVER LAND ARE EAST TO SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH. C-MAN WINDS...ON
AVERAGE...ARE EAST TO SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR
80 DEGREES.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. BY
WEDNESDAY...THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE APPROACHING THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. RAIN CHANCES IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST WILL BE HIGHER THAN USUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF DEEP...TROPICAL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD ENTER THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY...BEFORE POSSIBLY TURNING TO THE
NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD TRACK TO
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DELIVER SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN TO THE
FLORIDA KEYS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE TO THE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. A DRIER AIR MASS IS PROJECTED TO PUSH INTO THE FLORIDA KEYS
FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ON ALL
KEYS COASTAL WATERS TODAY. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES
EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY
BE REQUIRED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS THURSDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ON THE COASTAL WATERS OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND HAWK CHANNEL THURSDAY DUE TO SUSTAINED EAST
SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
BE REQUIRED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...HAWK CHANNEL...AND
FLORIDA BAY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
20/06Z TAF ISSUANCE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE CURRENTLY
LOCATED JUST OFF THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA SHOULD GRADUALLY MEANDER
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL IMPACT EYW...BUT MTH IS
SIGNIFICANTLY IN DOUBT. MVFR IS POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME WITH THESE
SHOWERS...BUT IFR SHOULD BE BRIEF IN NATURE. SHOWERS WILL THEN
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN 2007...THE DAILY RECORD RAINFALL OF 5.02 INCHES WAS
RECORDED AT KEY WEST. SINCE RAINFALL RECORDS BEGAN IN 1871...THIS
VALUE IS THE 9TH HIGHEST DAILY TOTAL THAT HAS BEEN RECORDED AT KEY
WEST DURING THE MONTH OF OCTOBER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  85 76 84 76 / 40 60 60 50
MARATHON  85 76 84 76 / 40 60 60 50

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION/CLIMATE.............MSB

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST






000
FXUS62 KKEY 200847
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
450 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS. ELSEWHERE...KBYX DETECTS NO
PRECIPITATION ECHOES. SKIES OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE MOSTLY CLEAR.
WINDS OVER LAND ARE EAST TO SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH. C-MAN WINDS...ON
AVERAGE...ARE EAST TO SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR
80 DEGREES.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. BY
WEDNESDAY...THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE APPROACHING THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. RAIN CHANCES IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST WILL BE HIGHER THAN USUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF DEEP...TROPICAL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD ENTER THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY...BEFORE POSSIBLY TURNING TO THE
NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD TRACK TO
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DELIVER SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN TO THE
FLORIDA KEYS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE TO THE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. A DRIER AIR MASS IS PROJECTED TO PUSH INTO THE FLORIDA KEYS
FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ON ALL
KEYS COASTAL WATERS TODAY. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES
EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY
BE REQUIRED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS THURSDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ON THE COASTAL WATERS OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND HAWK CHANNEL THURSDAY DUE TO SUSTAINED EAST
SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
BE REQUIRED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...HAWK CHANNEL...AND
FLORIDA BAY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
20/06Z TAF ISSUANCE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE CURRENTLY
LOCATED JUST OFF THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA SHOULD GRADUALLY MEANDER
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL IMPACT EYW...BUT MTH IS
SIGNIFICANTLY IN DOUBT. MVFR IS POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME WITH THESE
SHOWERS...BUT IFR SHOULD BE BRIEF IN NATURE. SHOWERS WILL THEN
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN 2007...THE DAILY RECORD RAINFALL OF 5.02 INCHES WAS
RECORDED AT KEY WEST. SINCE RAINFALL RECORDS BEGAN IN 1871...THIS
VALUE IS THE 9TH HIGHEST DAILY TOTAL THAT HAS BEEN RECORDED AT KEY
WEST DURING THE MONTH OF OCTOBER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  85 76 84 76 / 40 60 60 50
MARATHON  85 76 84 76 / 40 60 60 50

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION/CLIMATE.............MSB

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST







000
FXUS62 KKEY 200159
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
959 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH HAS SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CAROLINA COASTS WHILE MAINLY LOWER PRESSURE RESIDES IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. AS A RESULT...AND JUST IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...ALL
OBSERVING STATIONS HAVE TURNED TO THE EAST. BREEZES REMAIN
GENTLE...BUT THIS SHOULD CHANGE OVERNIGHT AS MASS FIELDS RESPOND TO
THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. INFRARED SATELLITE ANIMATIONS SHOW
ACCELERATING UPSTREAM CU- FIELDS...EAST OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. THE 00Z
RAOB OBSERVATION FROM KMFL INDICATES WHAT WE EXPECT OVERNIGHT...AN
EROSION OF THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN COMBINATION WITH INCREASED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. MEANWHILE...OUR 00Z SOUNDING HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE
SINCE LAST FRIDAY MORNING.

.UPDATE...WINDS SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. EXPECT WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LESS INHIBITION AS THE
EASTERLIES INCREASE. FOR THE FIRST TIME IN DAYS...RAIN WILL RETURN TO
THE FORECAST. THE CURRENT PACKAGE HAS THIS SCENARIO HANDLED WELL.

&&

.MARINE...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT...THEN ENTER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
MONDAY. THEREAFTER...A SLOWLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL MOVE EASTWARDS TOWARDS FLORIDA AND THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN.

&&

.AVIATION...20/00Z TAF...VFR WILL PREVAIL AT THE EYW AND MTH
TERMINALS. STRENGTHENING EASTERLY BREEZES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES AND LOWER SCT CLOUD BASES TO 020. THE BEST WINDOW FOR
PRECIPITATION INDUCED MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL BE FROM 10 TO 16Z.
NEVERTHELESS...FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES WILL BE BRIEF.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....CLR
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST







000
FXUS62 KKEY 191919
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
319 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - WEAK RIDGING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA IS IN THE PROCESS OF
BEING ABSORBED INTO THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. WINDS REMAIN QUITE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. STABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE...WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S. NO SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN POSSIBLE...AND SKY COVER REMAINS MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPERATURES
HAVE NOSED INTO THE MID 80S.

FORECAST - SURFACE WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE EAST THIS EVENING
AS THE RIDGE TO OUR NORTH BECOMES FULLY ASSIMILATED INTO THE LARGER
HIGH FURTHER TO THE NORTH...AND AS THE EFFECTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA DAY
TIME HEATING WEARS OFF. MEANWHILE...DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS THE LEADING EDGE OF A SWATH OF MOISTURE
IS ADVECTED NORTHWARD AROUND LOWER LEVEL ATLANTIC RIDGE AND THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MOVES OUT OF OUR AREA. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT RAIN IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL LATE IN THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOWS TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE
60S TONIGHT DUE TO THE INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW...AND DEW POINTS
SHOULD PUSH ABOVE 70 BY DAYBREAK.

THE HIGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL EXIT THE EAST COAST NEAR
THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY...AND CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD.
AS A RESULT...LOCAL WINDS WILL PEAK ON MONDAY AND THEN GRADUALLY
RELAX AND VEER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BECOMING LIGHT OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST. DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH DUE THE LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS REMAINING NEAR BY...AND INHIBITION WILL BE LOW OR
NON EXISTENT. WITH THAT SAID...A WEAKENING FLOW WILL PROVIDE A
CHALLENGING ENVIRONMENT FOR GENERAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. WILL MAINTAIN NEAR NORMAL POPS FOR THIS PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH MOISTURE CLIMBING THROUGH THE
LOW 70S.

A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FROM MID WEEK AND
BEYOND. ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A NONTROPICAL LOW WILL DEEPEN IN THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING THIS FOR QUITE SOME TIME
NOW...BUT FINALLY WE ARE OBSERVING TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND GROW
IN SIZE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD...WITH THE SUPPORT OF A COUPLE OF
PASSING UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. AN ORGANIZED AND ACCELERATING LOW LEVEL
FLOW...ALONG WITH INCREASING CYCLONIC CURVATURE...AND PWAT VALUES MOVE
WELL ABOVE 2 INCHES ALL POINT TOWARDS A PERIOD OR TWO OF MUCH HIGHER
THAN NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH
EXACTLY HOW THIS LOW DEVELOPS...HOW IT INTERACTS WITH PASSING
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...AND WHERE IT AND ITS CONVECTION GOES. FOR NOW
WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE POPS FROM THE LATE WEDNESDAY PERIOD THROUGH
FRIDAY...AND TREND DOWNWARDS MOVING INTO WEEKS END. ALSO...THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THIS DEVELOPING LOW. ONLY TIME CAN MAKE THIS PICTURE
CLEARER.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO A GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS INCREASE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE HIGH
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC...AND LOCAL WINDS WILL
RELAX OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL MEANDER IN THIS RANGE
INTO MID WEEK...THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST DUE TO AN
EXPECTED DEEPENING LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A MIX OF CAUTIONS AND
ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A PERIOD OR TWO OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. HOWEVER...A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 20/18Z...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH EYW
AND MTH. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFTER 20/12Z MAY
LEAD TO HIGHER STRATOCUMULUS COVER AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  75  85  76  84 / -  20 50 50
MARATHON  75  85  76  84 / -  20 50 50

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KASPER
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST







000
FXUS62 KKEY 191919
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
319 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - WEAK RIDGING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA IS IN THE PROCESS OF
BEING ABSORBED INTO THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. WINDS REMAIN QUITE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. STABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE...WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S. NO SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN POSSIBLE...AND SKY COVER REMAINS MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPERATURES
HAVE NOSED INTO THE MID 80S.

FORECAST - SURFACE WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE EAST THIS EVENING
AS THE RIDGE TO OUR NORTH BECOMES FULLY ASSIMILATED INTO THE LARGER
HIGH FURTHER TO THE NORTH...AND AS THE EFFECTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA DAY
TIME HEATING WEARS OFF. MEANWHILE...DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS THE LEADING EDGE OF A SWATH OF MOISTURE
IS ADVECTED NORTHWARD AROUND LOWER LEVEL ATLANTIC RIDGE AND THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MOVES OUT OF OUR AREA. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT RAIN IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL LATE IN THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOWS TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE
60S TONIGHT DUE TO THE INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW...AND DEW POINTS
SHOULD PUSH ABOVE 70 BY DAYBREAK.

THE HIGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL EXIT THE EAST COAST NEAR
THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY...AND CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD.
AS A RESULT...LOCAL WINDS WILL PEAK ON MONDAY AND THEN GRADUALLY
RELAX AND VEER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BECOMING LIGHT OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST. DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH DUE THE LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS REMAINING NEAR BY...AND INHIBITION WILL BE LOW OR
NON EXISTENT. WITH THAT SAID...A WEAKENING FLOW WILL PROVIDE A
CHALLENGING ENVIRONMENT FOR GENERAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. WILL MAINTAIN NEAR NORMAL POPS FOR THIS PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH MOISTURE CLIMBING THROUGH THE
LOW 70S.

A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FROM MID WEEK AND
BEYOND. ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A NONTROPICAL LOW WILL DEEPEN IN THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING THIS FOR QUITE SOME TIME
NOW...BUT FINALLY WE ARE OBSERVING TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND GROW
IN SIZE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD...WITH THE SUPPORT OF A COUPLE OF
PASSING UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. AN ORGANIZED AND ACCELERATING LOW LEVEL
FLOW...ALONG WITH INCREASING CYCLONIC CURVATURE...AND PWAT VALUES MOVE
WELL ABOVE 2 INCHES ALL POINT TOWARDS A PERIOD OR TWO OF MUCH HIGHER
THAN NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH
EXACTLY HOW THIS LOW DEVELOPS...HOW IT INTERACTS WITH PASSING
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...AND WHERE IT AND ITS CONVECTION GOES. FOR NOW
WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE POPS FROM THE LATE WEDNESDAY PERIOD THROUGH
FRIDAY...AND TREND DOWNWARDS MOVING INTO WEEKS END. ALSO...THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THIS DEVELOPING LOW. ONLY TIME CAN MAKE THIS PICTURE
CLEARER.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO A GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS INCREASE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE HIGH
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC...AND LOCAL WINDS WILL
RELAX OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL MEANDER IN THIS RANGE
INTO MID WEEK...THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST DUE TO AN
EXPECTED DEEPENING LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A MIX OF CAUTIONS AND
ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A PERIOD OR TWO OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. HOWEVER...A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 20/18Z...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH EYW
AND MTH. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFTER 20/12Z MAY
LEAD TO HIGHER STRATOCUMULUS COVER AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  75  85  76  84 / -  20 50 50
MARATHON  75  85  76  84 / -  20 50 50

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KASPER
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST






    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities