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000
FXUS62 KKEY 260240
AFDKEY

ZCZC MIAWRKAFD 260226
TTAA00 KMIA DDHHMM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1045 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB)...LATEST
AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY AS OF 900 PM OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS DEPICT A 75 KNOT SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET MIGRATING FROM
ACROSS SOUTHER BAJA CALIFORNIA EASTWARD TO THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...BEFORE DECELERATING AND SPLITTING OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF...WITH THE NORTHERN ARM MOVING NORTHWARDS UP THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN BRANCH WEAKENING. THE AXIS OF A MID AND UPPER
RIDGE IS NEAR 29 NORTH 77 WEST...WITH WATER VAPOR ILLUSTRATING THE
CUSP OF THE DRIEST AIR REMAINS EAST OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID AND UPPER RIDGE.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS...(SURFACE TO 700
MB)...LATEST AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MARINE AND LAND
OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS AS OF 900 PM DETAIL A STRONG NEAR 1030 MB
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC NEAR 37 NORTH 62 WEST.
THE 00Z EVENING SOUNDING ILLUSTRATED A MODERATELY MOIST AND
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE LOWER TO MID TROPOSPHERE WITH FRESH EAST
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS FROM OFF THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 800 MB...AND
COLUMNAR PWAT (PRECIPITABLE WATER) WAS AT 1.59 INCHES.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 900 PM...KEY WEST RADAR AND SATELLITE DETECTS A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA STRAITS...THE UPPER KEYS AND
FLORIDA BAY. C-MAN STATIONS ALONG THE FLORIDA REEF IN THE UPPER KEYS
AND FLORIDA BAY ARE RECORDING EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND
20 KNOTS...WITH 20 KNOTS ELSEWHERE AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS ARE
SUGGESTING WINDS ARE BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
STRAITS.

.FORECAST...TWEAKED THE WINDS UPWARD ACROSS THE ISLANDS GIVEN BREEZY
CONDITIONS OVER THE ISLANDS. WINDS HAVE BEEN A FEW KNOTS LOWER OFF
OF THE UPPER KEYS BUT THIS HAS BEEN NEAR SHOWERS WHICH ARE DWINDLING
GIVEN EXPECTED MIDDLE LEVEL DRY AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE EAST GIVEN
THE AFOREMENTIONED REGIONAL SCALE RIDGING. SINCE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOULD PWAT FALLING DOWN BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.50 INCHES AND THE DRIER
AIR TREND HAS BEEN OBSERVED GIVEN THE DWINDLING...LOWERED POPS TO 10
PERCENT...BUT SUFFICIENT LOWER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW WILL STILL ALLOW
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS. WINDS IN FLORIDA BAY OUTSIDE OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAVE BEEN A FEW KNOTS LOWER...SO HAVE REPLACED THE ADVISORY
WITH A SCEC ACROSS THESE WATERS. WINDS WILL COME UP A BIT OFF OF THE
UPPER KEYS. THESE MINOR MODIFICATIONS WERE MADE ON THE
UPDATE...OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN PLACE ACROSS ALL WATERS OVERNIGHT FOR
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...REMAINING CLOSE ENOUGH TO 20
KNOTS...ACROSS ALL WATERS EXCEPT FLORIDA BAY...WHERE A CAUTION IS IN
PLACE FOR 15 TO 20 KNOTS. ALSO HAVE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS IN THE
FLORIDA STRAITS GIVEN SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER
ENVIRONMENT OVER VERY WARM WATERS.

&&
.AVIATION... UNTIL 12Z/26TH...OUTSIDE OF A BRIEF MVFR
ENCOUNTER...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS. MOSTLY EAST WINDS OF 10 TO 13 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20
KNOTS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.CLIMATE... ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1985...3.34
INCHES OF RAIN WAS RECORDED IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RAINFALL
RECORD FOR MAY 25 IN KEY WEST. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE
BACK TO 1871.

&&

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GMZ052>055-072>075 & GMZ032>035-042>044

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.................FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/CLIMATE/NOWCASTS.....APA
DATA COLLECTION/UPPER AIR.....CHESSER

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 251855
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
255 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
THE VIEW FROM SPACE THIS AFTERNOON USING WATER VAPOR IMAGES WE CAN
SEE THE DRY AIR INFILTRATING THE AREA FROM THE EAST...OVER THE UPPER
KEYS. THE RADAR HAS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OVER THE MIDDLE AND LOWER
KEYS AND SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IS SHOWING A
FEW CLOUD STREETS ACROSS THE EASTERN BAHAMAS...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF COVERAGE OR PRODUCTION OF SHOWERS. WINDS ARE NEAR 20 KNOTS AT THE
C-MAN STATIONS ALONG THE REEF AND SMITH SHOAL LIGHT...WITH LONG KEY
STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MAINLAND THERMAL TROUGH AND SHOWING
15 TO 20 KNOTS. THE ISLAND TERMINALS ARE NEAR 15 KNOTS...AND ALL
WINDS ARE OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST.

.FORECAST...
HAVE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH
DIME POPS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE DRY AIR MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE AREA WILL SUBDUE DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUD LINES AND SHOWERS.
THE RIDGE PARKED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND STRETCHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIGNER IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A TROUGH FROM THE WEST...AND AN UPPER LOW FROM THE EAST
COMBINE TO PINCH OFF THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE FROM THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS WILL DECREASE THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A SERIES OF WEAK EASTERLY WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE
STRAITS. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE BUT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE IN THE ENVIRONMENT BY MONDAY THAT EPISODIC SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE LIKELY BEGINNING MONDAY. THERE WILL BE
SLIGHTLY MORE INSTABILITY...AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE INCREASED
MOISTURE HAVE PROMPTED A LOW END CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL KEYS WATERS FOR EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS. WINDS SHOULD BE PEAKING OVERNIGHT AND
IN THE MORNING...THEN VERY SLOWLY RELAX THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THE REASON FOR THE FRESH BREEZES IS THE LARGE RIDGE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BE PUSHED OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY...WITH THE GRADIENT WINDS...JUST AS
SLOWLY...RELAXING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
FAST-PACED ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST UPSTREAM OF THE
KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS STILL POSE A THREAT FOR BRIEF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS TO EITHER TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PUT A
TEMPO FOR TSTMS AT MARATHON IN THE SHORT TERM DUE TO THE IMMEDIATE
PROXIMITY OF STORMS ON RADAR. OTHERWISE...HAVE VCSH AT BOTH
LOCATIONS INTO EARLY EVENING...AND THEN VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
EASTERLY SURFACE BREEZES BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS WILL FREQUENTLY
GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1985...3.34 INCHES OF RAIN
WAS RECORDED IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RAINFALL RECORD FOR MAY
25 IN KEY WEST. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  81  88  81  88 / 20 10 10 10
MARATHON  81  91  81  91 / 20 10 10 10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ031>035-
     042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....04
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 251855
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
255 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
THE VIEW FROM SPACE THIS AFTERNOON USING WATER VAPOR IMAGES WE CAN
SEE THE DRY AIR INFILTRATING THE AREA FROM THE EAST...OVER THE UPPER
KEYS. THE RADAR HAS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OVER THE MIDDLE AND LOWER
KEYS AND SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IS SHOWING A
FEW CLOUD STREETS ACROSS THE EASTERN BAHAMAS...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF COVERAGE OR PRODUCTION OF SHOWERS. WINDS ARE NEAR 20 KNOTS AT THE
C-MAN STATIONS ALONG THE REEF AND SMITH SHOAL LIGHT...WITH LONG KEY
STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MAINLAND THERMAL TROUGH AND SHOWING
15 TO 20 KNOTS. THE ISLAND TERMINALS ARE NEAR 15 KNOTS...AND ALL
WINDS ARE OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST.

.FORECAST...
HAVE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH
DIME POPS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE DRY AIR MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE AREA WILL SUBDUE DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUD LINES AND SHOWERS.
THE RIDGE PARKED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND STRETCHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIGNER IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A TROUGH FROM THE WEST...AND AN UPPER LOW FROM THE EAST
COMBINE TO PINCH OFF THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE FROM THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS WILL DECREASE THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A SERIES OF WEAK EASTERLY WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE
STRAITS. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE BUT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE IN THE ENVIRONMENT BY MONDAY THAT EPISODIC SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE LIKELY BEGINNING MONDAY. THERE WILL BE
SLIGHTLY MORE INSTABILITY...AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE INCREASED
MOISTURE HAVE PROMPTED A LOW END CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL KEYS WATERS FOR EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS. WINDS SHOULD BE PEAKING OVERNIGHT AND
IN THE MORNING...THEN VERY SLOWLY RELAX THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THE REASON FOR THE FRESH BREEZES IS THE LARGE RIDGE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BE PUSHED OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY...WITH THE GRADIENT WINDS...JUST AS
SLOWLY...RELAXING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
FAST-PACED ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST UPSTREAM OF THE
KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS STILL POSE A THREAT FOR BRIEF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS TO EITHER TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PUT A
TEMPO FOR TSTMS AT MARATHON IN THE SHORT TERM DUE TO THE IMMEDIATE
PROXIMITY OF STORMS ON RADAR. OTHERWISE...HAVE VCSH AT BOTH
LOCATIONS INTO EARLY EVENING...AND THEN VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
EASTERLY SURFACE BREEZES BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS WILL FREQUENTLY
GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1985...3.34 INCHES OF RAIN
WAS RECORDED IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RAINFALL RECORD FOR MAY
25 IN KEY WEST. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  81  88  81  88 / 20 10 10 10
MARATHON  81  91  81  91 / 20 10 10 10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ031>035-
     042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....04
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 251855
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
255 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
THE VIEW FROM SPACE THIS AFTERNOON USING WATER VAPOR IMAGES WE CAN
SEE THE DRY AIR INFILTRATING THE AREA FROM THE EAST...OVER THE UPPER
KEYS. THE RADAR HAS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OVER THE MIDDLE AND LOWER
KEYS AND SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IS SHOWING A
FEW CLOUD STREETS ACROSS THE EASTERN BAHAMAS...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF COVERAGE OR PRODUCTION OF SHOWERS. WINDS ARE NEAR 20 KNOTS AT THE
C-MAN STATIONS ALONG THE REEF AND SMITH SHOAL LIGHT...WITH LONG KEY
STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MAINLAND THERMAL TROUGH AND SHOWING
15 TO 20 KNOTS. THE ISLAND TERMINALS ARE NEAR 15 KNOTS...AND ALL
WINDS ARE OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST.

.FORECAST...
HAVE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH
DIME POPS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE DRY AIR MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE AREA WILL SUBDUE DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUD LINES AND SHOWERS.
THE RIDGE PARKED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND STRETCHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIGNER IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A TROUGH FROM THE WEST...AND AN UPPER LOW FROM THE EAST
COMBINE TO PINCH OFF THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE FROM THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS WILL DECREASE THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A SERIES OF WEAK EASTERLY WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE
STRAITS. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE BUT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE IN THE ENVIRONMENT BY MONDAY THAT EPISODIC SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE LIKELY BEGINNING MONDAY. THERE WILL BE
SLIGHTLY MORE INSTABILITY...AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE INCREASED
MOISTURE HAVE PROMPTED A LOW END CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL KEYS WATERS FOR EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS. WINDS SHOULD BE PEAKING OVERNIGHT AND
IN THE MORNING...THEN VERY SLOWLY RELAX THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THE REASON FOR THE FRESH BREEZES IS THE LARGE RIDGE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BE PUSHED OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY...WITH THE GRADIENT WINDS...JUST AS
SLOWLY...RELAXING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
FAST-PACED ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST UPSTREAM OF THE
KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS STILL POSE A THREAT FOR BRIEF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS TO EITHER TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PUT A
TEMPO FOR TSTMS AT MARATHON IN THE SHORT TERM DUE TO THE IMMEDIATE
PROXIMITY OF STORMS ON RADAR. OTHERWISE...HAVE VCSH AT BOTH
LOCATIONS INTO EARLY EVENING...AND THEN VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
EASTERLY SURFACE BREEZES BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS WILL FREQUENTLY
GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1985...3.34 INCHES OF RAIN
WAS RECORDED IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RAINFALL RECORD FOR MAY
25 IN KEY WEST. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  81  88  81  88 / 20 10 10 10
MARATHON  81  91  81  91 / 20 10 10 10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ031>035-
     042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....04
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 251855
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
255 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
THE VIEW FROM SPACE THIS AFTERNOON USING WATER VAPOR IMAGES WE CAN
SEE THE DRY AIR INFILTRATING THE AREA FROM THE EAST...OVER THE UPPER
KEYS. THE RADAR HAS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OVER THE MIDDLE AND LOWER
KEYS AND SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IS SHOWING A
FEW CLOUD STREETS ACROSS THE EASTERN BAHAMAS...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF COVERAGE OR PRODUCTION OF SHOWERS. WINDS ARE NEAR 20 KNOTS AT THE
C-MAN STATIONS ALONG THE REEF AND SMITH SHOAL LIGHT...WITH LONG KEY
STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MAINLAND THERMAL TROUGH AND SHOWING
15 TO 20 KNOTS. THE ISLAND TERMINALS ARE NEAR 15 KNOTS...AND ALL
WINDS ARE OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST.

.FORECAST...
HAVE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH
DIME POPS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE DRY AIR MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE AREA WILL SUBDUE DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUD LINES AND SHOWERS.
THE RIDGE PARKED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND STRETCHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIGNER IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A TROUGH FROM THE WEST...AND AN UPPER LOW FROM THE EAST
COMBINE TO PINCH OFF THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE FROM THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS WILL DECREASE THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A SERIES OF WEAK EASTERLY WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE
STRAITS. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE BUT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE IN THE ENVIRONMENT BY MONDAY THAT EPISODIC SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE LIKELY BEGINNING MONDAY. THERE WILL BE
SLIGHTLY MORE INSTABILITY...AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE INCREASED
MOISTURE HAVE PROMPTED A LOW END CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL KEYS WATERS FOR EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS. WINDS SHOULD BE PEAKING OVERNIGHT AND
IN THE MORNING...THEN VERY SLOWLY RELAX THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THE REASON FOR THE FRESH BREEZES IS THE LARGE RIDGE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BE PUSHED OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY...WITH THE GRADIENT WINDS...JUST AS
SLOWLY...RELAXING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
FAST-PACED ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST UPSTREAM OF THE
KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS STILL POSE A THREAT FOR BRIEF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS TO EITHER TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PUT A
TEMPO FOR TSTMS AT MARATHON IN THE SHORT TERM DUE TO THE IMMEDIATE
PROXIMITY OF STORMS ON RADAR. OTHERWISE...HAVE VCSH AT BOTH
LOCATIONS INTO EARLY EVENING...AND THEN VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
EASTERLY SURFACE BREEZES BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS WILL FREQUENTLY
GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1985...3.34 INCHES OF RAIN
WAS RECORDED IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RAINFALL RECORD FOR MAY
25 IN KEY WEST. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  81  88  81  88 / 20 10 10 10
MARATHON  81  91  81  91 / 20 10 10 10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ031>035-
     042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....04
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 251259
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
859 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
FROM THE KBYX RADAR WE FIND SCATTERED SHOWERS CROSSING THE KEYS AREA
FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS 65 MILES EAST OF ELBOW CAY...MOVING
NORTHWEST NEAR 20 KNOTS AND COVERING MUCH OF THE COASTAL WATERS AND A
GOOD PORTION OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER KEYS. SATELLITE INTERROGATION
USING WATER VAPOR SHOWS A SWATH OF DRY AIR ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF
THE AREA. FURTHER INTERROGATION OF IR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES
WE CAN SEE POPCORN SHOWERS ALL THE WAY BACK TO EASTERN CUBA. MIMIC
ALSO SHOWING THE SWATH OF MOISTURE OVER THE KEYS THIS MORNING...WITH
DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE EAST. WINDS ARE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT THE
SURFACE NEAR 15 KNOTS AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS...AND 15 TO 20 KNOTS AT
THE MARINE REPORTING STATIONS AROUND THE KEYS.

.FORECAST...
WITH SATELLITE SUPPORT AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY TO SHOW HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
TODAY...WITH A DECREASING TREND FROM THE UPPER KEYS WEST. WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE IN FOR TONIGHT AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL ADDRESS THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN THE AFTERNOON FORECAST MORE THOROUGHLY.
OTHERWISE THE FORECAST SEEMS LIKE A SKIP IN A RECORD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...WHICH WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE
UNDULATIONS IN THE FLOW DUE TO WEAK EASTERLY WAVE PROPAGATION THROUGH
THE STRAITS...PROVIDING BRIEF LULLS IN BREEZES THROUGH MIDWEEK.
FINALLY A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL NUDGE
THE RIDGE TO THE EAST...AND WEAKEN THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. A RESULT OF THE NUDGING WILL BE GRADUALLY DECREASING WINDS
OVER THE KEYS AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THIS
MORNING WITH A CAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF HAWK
CHANNEL AND NORTH. AN ADVISORY FOR ALL KEYS WATERS IS LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON...EXTENDING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...THEN RETREATING BACK
TO THE WATERS SOUTH. THE CULPRIT IS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PARKED
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...STRETCHING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SLOWLY EAST ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A THROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ZIPPING ALONG TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST UPSTREAM OF THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS THIS
MORNING. A FEW MAY BRING BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO EITHER
TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BUT DUE TO THE SIZE...PACE...AND
FLUCTUATING NATURE OF DISCREET CELLS...DECIDED TO ADVERTISE VCSH
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT BOTH LOCATIONS. THAT MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS WELL BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS. EASTERLY SURFACE BREEZES BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS WILL
FREQUENTLY GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1985...3.34 INCHES OF RAIN
WAS RECORDED IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RAINFALL RECORD FOR
MAY 25 IN KEY WEST. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ052>055-
     072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....04
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 251259
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
859 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
FROM THE KBYX RADAR WE FIND SCATTERED SHOWERS CROSSING THE KEYS AREA
FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS 65 MILES EAST OF ELBOW CAY...MOVING
NORTHWEST NEAR 20 KNOTS AND COVERING MUCH OF THE COASTAL WATERS AND A
GOOD PORTION OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER KEYS. SATELLITE INTERROGATION
USING WATER VAPOR SHOWS A SWATH OF DRY AIR ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF
THE AREA. FURTHER INTERROGATION OF IR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES
WE CAN SEE POPCORN SHOWERS ALL THE WAY BACK TO EASTERN CUBA. MIMIC
ALSO SHOWING THE SWATH OF MOISTURE OVER THE KEYS THIS MORNING...WITH
DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE EAST. WINDS ARE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT THE
SURFACE NEAR 15 KNOTS AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS...AND 15 TO 20 KNOTS AT
THE MARINE REPORTING STATIONS AROUND THE KEYS.

.FORECAST...
WITH SATELLITE SUPPORT AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY TO SHOW HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
TODAY...WITH A DECREASING TREND FROM THE UPPER KEYS WEST. WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE IN FOR TONIGHT AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL ADDRESS THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN THE AFTERNOON FORECAST MORE THOROUGHLY.
OTHERWISE THE FORECAST SEEMS LIKE A SKIP IN A RECORD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...WHICH WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE
UNDULATIONS IN THE FLOW DUE TO WEAK EASTERLY WAVE PROPAGATION THROUGH
THE STRAITS...PROVIDING BRIEF LULLS IN BREEZES THROUGH MIDWEEK.
FINALLY A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL NUDGE
THE RIDGE TO THE EAST...AND WEAKEN THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. A RESULT OF THE NUDGING WILL BE GRADUALLY DECREASING WINDS
OVER THE KEYS AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THIS
MORNING WITH A CAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF HAWK
CHANNEL AND NORTH. AN ADVISORY FOR ALL KEYS WATERS IS LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON...EXTENDING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...THEN RETREATING BACK
TO THE WATERS SOUTH. THE CULPRIT IS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PARKED
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...STRETCHING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SLOWLY EAST ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A THROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ZIPPING ALONG TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST UPSTREAM OF THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS THIS
MORNING. A FEW MAY BRING BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO EITHER
TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BUT DUE TO THE SIZE...PACE...AND
FLUCTUATING NATURE OF DISCREET CELLS...DECIDED TO ADVERTISE VCSH
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT BOTH LOCATIONS. THAT MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS WELL BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS. EASTERLY SURFACE BREEZES BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS WILL
FREQUENTLY GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1985...3.34 INCHES OF RAIN
WAS RECORDED IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RAINFALL RECORD FOR
MAY 25 IN KEY WEST. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ052>055-
     072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....04
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 251259
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
859 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
FROM THE KBYX RADAR WE FIND SCATTERED SHOWERS CROSSING THE KEYS AREA
FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS 65 MILES EAST OF ELBOW CAY...MOVING
NORTHWEST NEAR 20 KNOTS AND COVERING MUCH OF THE COASTAL WATERS AND A
GOOD PORTION OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER KEYS. SATELLITE INTERROGATION
USING WATER VAPOR SHOWS A SWATH OF DRY AIR ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF
THE AREA. FURTHER INTERROGATION OF IR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES
WE CAN SEE POPCORN SHOWERS ALL THE WAY BACK TO EASTERN CUBA. MIMIC
ALSO SHOWING THE SWATH OF MOISTURE OVER THE KEYS THIS MORNING...WITH
DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE EAST. WINDS ARE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT THE
SURFACE NEAR 15 KNOTS AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS...AND 15 TO 20 KNOTS AT
THE MARINE REPORTING STATIONS AROUND THE KEYS.

.FORECAST...
WITH SATELLITE SUPPORT AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY TO SHOW HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
TODAY...WITH A DECREASING TREND FROM THE UPPER KEYS WEST. WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE IN FOR TONIGHT AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL ADDRESS THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN THE AFTERNOON FORECAST MORE THOROUGHLY.
OTHERWISE THE FORECAST SEEMS LIKE A SKIP IN A RECORD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...WHICH WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE
UNDULATIONS IN THE FLOW DUE TO WEAK EASTERLY WAVE PROPAGATION THROUGH
THE STRAITS...PROVIDING BRIEF LULLS IN BREEZES THROUGH MIDWEEK.
FINALLY A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL NUDGE
THE RIDGE TO THE EAST...AND WEAKEN THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. A RESULT OF THE NUDGING WILL BE GRADUALLY DECREASING WINDS
OVER THE KEYS AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THIS
MORNING WITH A CAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF HAWK
CHANNEL AND NORTH. AN ADVISORY FOR ALL KEYS WATERS IS LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON...EXTENDING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...THEN RETREATING BACK
TO THE WATERS SOUTH. THE CULPRIT IS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PARKED
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...STRETCHING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SLOWLY EAST ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A THROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ZIPPING ALONG TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST UPSTREAM OF THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS THIS
MORNING. A FEW MAY BRING BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO EITHER
TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BUT DUE TO THE SIZE...PACE...AND
FLUCTUATING NATURE OF DISCREET CELLS...DECIDED TO ADVERTISE VCSH
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT BOTH LOCATIONS. THAT MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS WELL BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS. EASTERLY SURFACE BREEZES BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS WILL
FREQUENTLY GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1985...3.34 INCHES OF RAIN
WAS RECORDED IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RAINFALL RECORD FOR
MAY 25 IN KEY WEST. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ052>055-
     072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....04
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 251259
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
859 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
FROM THE KBYX RADAR WE FIND SCATTERED SHOWERS CROSSING THE KEYS AREA
FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS 65 MILES EAST OF ELBOW CAY...MOVING
NORTHWEST NEAR 20 KNOTS AND COVERING MUCH OF THE COASTAL WATERS AND A
GOOD PORTION OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER KEYS. SATELLITE INTERROGATION
USING WATER VAPOR SHOWS A SWATH OF DRY AIR ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF
THE AREA. FURTHER INTERROGATION OF IR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES
WE CAN SEE POPCORN SHOWERS ALL THE WAY BACK TO EASTERN CUBA. MIMIC
ALSO SHOWING THE SWATH OF MOISTURE OVER THE KEYS THIS MORNING...WITH
DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE EAST. WINDS ARE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT THE
SURFACE NEAR 15 KNOTS AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS...AND 15 TO 20 KNOTS AT
THE MARINE REPORTING STATIONS AROUND THE KEYS.

.FORECAST...
WITH SATELLITE SUPPORT AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY TO SHOW HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
TODAY...WITH A DECREASING TREND FROM THE UPPER KEYS WEST. WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE IN FOR TONIGHT AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL ADDRESS THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN THE AFTERNOON FORECAST MORE THOROUGHLY.
OTHERWISE THE FORECAST SEEMS LIKE A SKIP IN A RECORD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...WHICH WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE
UNDULATIONS IN THE FLOW DUE TO WEAK EASTERLY WAVE PROPAGATION THROUGH
THE STRAITS...PROVIDING BRIEF LULLS IN BREEZES THROUGH MIDWEEK.
FINALLY A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL NUDGE
THE RIDGE TO THE EAST...AND WEAKEN THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. A RESULT OF THE NUDGING WILL BE GRADUALLY DECREASING WINDS
OVER THE KEYS AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THIS
MORNING WITH A CAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF HAWK
CHANNEL AND NORTH. AN ADVISORY FOR ALL KEYS WATERS IS LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON...EXTENDING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...THEN RETREATING BACK
TO THE WATERS SOUTH. THE CULPRIT IS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PARKED
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...STRETCHING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SLOWLY EAST ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A THROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ZIPPING ALONG TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST UPSTREAM OF THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS THIS
MORNING. A FEW MAY BRING BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO EITHER
TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BUT DUE TO THE SIZE...PACE...AND
FLUCTUATING NATURE OF DISCREET CELLS...DECIDED TO ADVERTISE VCSH
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT BOTH LOCATIONS. THAT MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS WELL BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS. EASTERLY SURFACE BREEZES BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS WILL
FREQUENTLY GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1985...3.34 INCHES OF RAIN
WAS RECORDED IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RAINFALL RECORD FOR
MAY 25 IN KEY WEST. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ052>055-
     072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....04
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 250845
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
445 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER-LEVEL COMPOSITE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS A DEEP LAYER
MEAN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN JUST
EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPANSIVE...WITH
RIDGING EXTENDING FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE CARIBBEAN...AND FROM THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. AN ASSOCIATED BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CELL IS CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING WESTWARD TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE FLORIDA
KEYS LIE WITHIN A TRADE-WIND FLOW REGIME ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF
THE SURFACE HIGH. THE RESIDENT AIR MASS IS MARITIME TROPICAL...WITH
WEAK TO MODERATE CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION. DATA FROM BOTH THE KEY WEST SUNDAY EVENING RADIOSONDE
BALLOON AND SUBSEQUENT SATELLITE-DERIVED SOUNDINGS INDICATE A VERY
MOIST SUBCLOUD LAYER...WITH CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ALOFT. HOWEVER...
WEAK CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...AND A BOUNDARY-RICH CONFLUENT NOCTURNAL
LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAVE LED TO A PROLIFERATION OF SMALL SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING...MOVING QUICKLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD...AND AFFECTING SOME ISLAND COMMUNITIES. CURRENTLY...
AIR TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 80F AT MOST ISLAND STATIONS...WITH
DEWPOINTS HOLDING STEADY IN THE MID 70S. EAST WINDS ARE BLOWING NEAR
15 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH OVER LAND.

FORECASTS -- A SWATH OF RICHER MOISTURE OVER THE BAHAMAS...EVIDENCED
IN MIMIC-TPW IMAGERY FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS GROUP IN
PARTICULAR...IS TRANSITING WESTWARD AND WE HAVE THE BULK OF THIS
RICHER MOISTURE ARRIVING IN THE SERVICE AREA TONIGHT...COINCIDENT
WITH A WIND SURGE AND FAVORED NOCTURNALLY ENHANCED CONFLUENT FLOW
REGIME. THEREFORE...WE HAVE FLIP-FLOPPED THE 30/20 RAIN CHANCES
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...RESPECTIVELY.
THEREAFTER...TRENDS IN UPSTREAM SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS AND NUMERICAL
WEATHER PREDICTION OUTPUT INDICATE SIGNIFICANT DRYING ALOFT WITH SOME
STABILIZATION AS WELL AS THE DEEP LAYER MEAN ANTICYCLONE TRANSPORTS
AIR OF CONTINENTAL ORIGIN SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE KEYS. THEREFORE...
WE HAVE ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES DOWNWARD DURING THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY
TIME FRAME...AND REMOVED THUNDER. THEREAFTER...LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE
MAY SLOWLY WEAKEN...WITH CLIMATOLOGICAL WEATHER REGIME EXPECTED.
&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
TODAY...AND LIKELY BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE ALL ZONES BY TONIGHT. AN
EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN
NORTH ATLANTIC...TO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. THIS SETUP WILL MAINTAIN FRESH EAST BREEZES ACROSS
FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL AT THE EYW AND MTH TERMINALS TODAY. BRIEF MVFR
CIGS/VIS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AT BOTH TERMINALS DUE TO
QUICKLY MOVING RAIN SHOWERS. EASTERLY WIND GUSTS WILL FREQUENTLY
APPROACH 20 KNOTS. THESE EASTERLY REGIMES FAVOR NOCTURNAL INCREASES
IN SHOWER CHANCES. THUS...SHOWER CHANCES WILL DECREASE AFTER
SUNRISE...ONLY TO INCREASE TONIGHT AFTER 00Z.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  88  81  88  81 / 20 30 10 10
MARATHON  91  81  91  81 / 20 30 10 10
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR GMZ052-GMZ053-GMZ054-
     GMZ055-GMZ072-GMZ073-GMZ074-GMZ075.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....CLR
DATA COLLECTION.......CLR

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 250845
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
445 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER-LEVEL COMPOSITE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS A DEEP LAYER
MEAN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN JUST
EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPANSIVE...WITH
RIDGING EXTENDING FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE CARIBBEAN...AND FROM THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. AN ASSOCIATED BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CELL IS CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING WESTWARD TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE FLORIDA
KEYS LIE WITHIN A TRADE-WIND FLOW REGIME ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF
THE SURFACE HIGH. THE RESIDENT AIR MASS IS MARITIME TROPICAL...WITH
WEAK TO MODERATE CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION. DATA FROM BOTH THE KEY WEST SUNDAY EVENING RADIOSONDE
BALLOON AND SUBSEQUENT SATELLITE-DERIVED SOUNDINGS INDICATE A VERY
MOIST SUBCLOUD LAYER...WITH CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ALOFT. HOWEVER...
WEAK CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...AND A BOUNDARY-RICH CONFLUENT NOCTURNAL
LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAVE LED TO A PROLIFERATION OF SMALL SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING...MOVING QUICKLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD...AND AFFECTING SOME ISLAND COMMUNITIES. CURRENTLY...
AIR TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 80F AT MOST ISLAND STATIONS...WITH
DEWPOINTS HOLDING STEADY IN THE MID 70S. EAST WINDS ARE BLOWING NEAR
15 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH OVER LAND.

FORECASTS -- A SWATH OF RICHER MOISTURE OVER THE BAHAMAS...EVIDENCED
IN MIMIC-TPW IMAGERY FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS GROUP IN
PARTICULAR...IS TRANSITING WESTWARD AND WE HAVE THE BULK OF THIS
RICHER MOISTURE ARRIVING IN THE SERVICE AREA TONIGHT...COINCIDENT
WITH A WIND SURGE AND FAVORED NOCTURNALLY ENHANCED CONFLUENT FLOW
REGIME. THEREFORE...WE HAVE FLIP-FLOPPED THE 30/20 RAIN CHANCES
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...RESPECTIVELY.
THEREAFTER...TRENDS IN UPSTREAM SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS AND NUMERICAL
WEATHER PREDICTION OUTPUT INDICATE SIGNIFICANT DRYING ALOFT WITH SOME
STABILIZATION AS WELL AS THE DEEP LAYER MEAN ANTICYCLONE TRANSPORTS
AIR OF CONTINENTAL ORIGIN SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE KEYS. THEREFORE...
WE HAVE ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES DOWNWARD DURING THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY
TIME FRAME...AND REMOVED THUNDER. THEREAFTER...LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE
MAY SLOWLY WEAKEN...WITH CLIMATOLOGICAL WEATHER REGIME EXPECTED.
&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
TODAY...AND LIKELY BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE ALL ZONES BY TONIGHT. AN
EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN
NORTH ATLANTIC...TO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. THIS SETUP WILL MAINTAIN FRESH EAST BREEZES ACROSS
FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL AT THE EYW AND MTH TERMINALS TODAY. BRIEF MVFR
CIGS/VIS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AT BOTH TERMINALS DUE TO
QUICKLY MOVING RAIN SHOWERS. EASTERLY WIND GUSTS WILL FREQUENTLY
APPROACH 20 KNOTS. THESE EASTERLY REGIMES FAVOR NOCTURNAL INCREASES
IN SHOWER CHANCES. THUS...SHOWER CHANCES WILL DECREASE AFTER
SUNRISE...ONLY TO INCREASE TONIGHT AFTER 00Z.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  88  81  88  81 / 20 30 10 10
MARATHON  91  81  91  81 / 20 30 10 10
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR GMZ052-GMZ053-GMZ054-
     GMZ055-GMZ072-GMZ073-GMZ074-GMZ075.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....CLR
DATA COLLECTION.......CLR

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 250845
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
445 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER-LEVEL COMPOSITE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS A DEEP LAYER
MEAN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN JUST
EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPANSIVE...WITH
RIDGING EXTENDING FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE CARIBBEAN...AND FROM THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. AN ASSOCIATED BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CELL IS CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING WESTWARD TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE FLORIDA
KEYS LIE WITHIN A TRADE-WIND FLOW REGIME ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF
THE SURFACE HIGH. THE RESIDENT AIR MASS IS MARITIME TROPICAL...WITH
WEAK TO MODERATE CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION. DATA FROM BOTH THE KEY WEST SUNDAY EVENING RADIOSONDE
BALLOON AND SUBSEQUENT SATELLITE-DERIVED SOUNDINGS INDICATE A VERY
MOIST SUBCLOUD LAYER...WITH CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ALOFT. HOWEVER...
WEAK CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...AND A BOUNDARY-RICH CONFLUENT NOCTURNAL
LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAVE LED TO A PROLIFERATION OF SMALL SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING...MOVING QUICKLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD...AND AFFECTING SOME ISLAND COMMUNITIES. CURRENTLY...
AIR TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 80F AT MOST ISLAND STATIONS...WITH
DEWPOINTS HOLDING STEADY IN THE MID 70S. EAST WINDS ARE BLOWING NEAR
15 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH OVER LAND.

FORECASTS -- A SWATH OF RICHER MOISTURE OVER THE BAHAMAS...EVIDENCED
IN MIMIC-TPW IMAGERY FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS GROUP IN
PARTICULAR...IS TRANSITING WESTWARD AND WE HAVE THE BULK OF THIS
RICHER MOISTURE ARRIVING IN THE SERVICE AREA TONIGHT...COINCIDENT
WITH A WIND SURGE AND FAVORED NOCTURNALLY ENHANCED CONFLUENT FLOW
REGIME. THEREFORE...WE HAVE FLIP-FLOPPED THE 30/20 RAIN CHANCES
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...RESPECTIVELY.
THEREAFTER...TRENDS IN UPSTREAM SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS AND NUMERICAL
WEATHER PREDICTION OUTPUT INDICATE SIGNIFICANT DRYING ALOFT WITH SOME
STABILIZATION AS WELL AS THE DEEP LAYER MEAN ANTICYCLONE TRANSPORTS
AIR OF CONTINENTAL ORIGIN SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE KEYS. THEREFORE...
WE HAVE ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES DOWNWARD DURING THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY
TIME FRAME...AND REMOVED THUNDER. THEREAFTER...LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE
MAY SLOWLY WEAKEN...WITH CLIMATOLOGICAL WEATHER REGIME EXPECTED.
&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
TODAY...AND LIKELY BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE ALL ZONES BY TONIGHT. AN
EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN
NORTH ATLANTIC...TO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. THIS SETUP WILL MAINTAIN FRESH EAST BREEZES ACROSS
FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL AT THE EYW AND MTH TERMINALS TODAY. BRIEF MVFR
CIGS/VIS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AT BOTH TERMINALS DUE TO
QUICKLY MOVING RAIN SHOWERS. EASTERLY WIND GUSTS WILL FREQUENTLY
APPROACH 20 KNOTS. THESE EASTERLY REGIMES FAVOR NOCTURNAL INCREASES
IN SHOWER CHANCES. THUS...SHOWER CHANCES WILL DECREASE AFTER
SUNRISE...ONLY TO INCREASE TONIGHT AFTER 00Z.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  88  81  88  81 / 20 30 10 10
MARATHON  91  81  91  81 / 20 30 10 10
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR GMZ052-GMZ053-GMZ054-
     GMZ055-GMZ072-GMZ073-GMZ074-GMZ075.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....CLR
DATA COLLECTION.......CLR

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 250845
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
445 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER-LEVEL COMPOSITE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS A DEEP LAYER
MEAN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN JUST
EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPANSIVE...WITH
RIDGING EXTENDING FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE CARIBBEAN...AND FROM THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. AN ASSOCIATED BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CELL IS CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING WESTWARD TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE FLORIDA
KEYS LIE WITHIN A TRADE-WIND FLOW REGIME ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF
THE SURFACE HIGH. THE RESIDENT AIR MASS IS MARITIME TROPICAL...WITH
WEAK TO MODERATE CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION. DATA FROM BOTH THE KEY WEST SUNDAY EVENING RADIOSONDE
BALLOON AND SUBSEQUENT SATELLITE-DERIVED SOUNDINGS INDICATE A VERY
MOIST SUBCLOUD LAYER...WITH CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ALOFT. HOWEVER...
WEAK CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...AND A BOUNDARY-RICH CONFLUENT NOCTURNAL
LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAVE LED TO A PROLIFERATION OF SMALL SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING...MOVING QUICKLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD...AND AFFECTING SOME ISLAND COMMUNITIES. CURRENTLY...
AIR TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 80F AT MOST ISLAND STATIONS...WITH
DEWPOINTS HOLDING STEADY IN THE MID 70S. EAST WINDS ARE BLOWING NEAR
15 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH OVER LAND.

FORECASTS -- A SWATH OF RICHER MOISTURE OVER THE BAHAMAS...EVIDENCED
IN MIMIC-TPW IMAGERY FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS GROUP IN
PARTICULAR...IS TRANSITING WESTWARD AND WE HAVE THE BULK OF THIS
RICHER MOISTURE ARRIVING IN THE SERVICE AREA TONIGHT...COINCIDENT
WITH A WIND SURGE AND FAVORED NOCTURNALLY ENHANCED CONFLUENT FLOW
REGIME. THEREFORE...WE HAVE FLIP-FLOPPED THE 30/20 RAIN CHANCES
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...RESPECTIVELY.
THEREAFTER...TRENDS IN UPSTREAM SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS AND NUMERICAL
WEATHER PREDICTION OUTPUT INDICATE SIGNIFICANT DRYING ALOFT WITH SOME
STABILIZATION AS WELL AS THE DEEP LAYER MEAN ANTICYCLONE TRANSPORTS
AIR OF CONTINENTAL ORIGIN SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE KEYS. THEREFORE...
WE HAVE ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES DOWNWARD DURING THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY
TIME FRAME...AND REMOVED THUNDER. THEREAFTER...LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE
MAY SLOWLY WEAKEN...WITH CLIMATOLOGICAL WEATHER REGIME EXPECTED.
&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
TODAY...AND LIKELY BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE ALL ZONES BY TONIGHT. AN
EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN
NORTH ATLANTIC...TO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. THIS SETUP WILL MAINTAIN FRESH EAST BREEZES ACROSS
FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL AT THE EYW AND MTH TERMINALS TODAY. BRIEF MVFR
CIGS/VIS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AT BOTH TERMINALS DUE TO
QUICKLY MOVING RAIN SHOWERS. EASTERLY WIND GUSTS WILL FREQUENTLY
APPROACH 20 KNOTS. THESE EASTERLY REGIMES FAVOR NOCTURNAL INCREASES
IN SHOWER CHANCES. THUS...SHOWER CHANCES WILL DECREASE AFTER
SUNRISE...ONLY TO INCREASE TONIGHT AFTER 00Z.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  88  81  88  81 / 20 30 10 10
MARATHON  91  81  91  81 / 20 30 10 10
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR GMZ052-GMZ053-GMZ054-
     GMZ055-GMZ072-GMZ073-GMZ074-GMZ075.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....CLR
DATA COLLECTION.......CLR

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 250122
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
930 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB)...LATEST AVAILABLE IR
IMAGERY AS OF 900 PM OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS DEPICT A 75 TO
100 KNOT SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET MIGRATING FROM ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA
EASTWARD TO ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...BEFORE DECELERATING AND SPLITTING OFF OF
THE TEXAS COAST WITH THE NORTHERN ARM MOVING NORTHWARDS UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN BRANCH WEAKENING...WITH THE AXIS OF A REGIONAL SCALE MID AND
UPPER RIDGE OVER FLORIDA...CUBA AND THE KEYS.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS...(SURFACE TO 700 MB)...LATEST
AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MARINE AND LAND OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS
AS OF 900 PM DETAIL A STRONG NEAR 1030 MB RIDGE ORIENTED FROM THE OUTER BANKS
EASTWARD TO 35 NORTH 60 WEST. THE 00Z EVENING SOUNDING ILLUSTRATED A MODERATELY
MOIST LOWER TO MID TROPOSPHERE WITH FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS FROM
OFF THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 800 MB...AND COLUMNAR PWAT (PRECIPITABLE WATER)
WAS AT 1.46 INCHES.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 900 PM...KEY WEST RADAR AND SATELLITE DETECTS ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING FROM EAST TO WEST...MOSTLY CONCENTRATED OVER THE
FLORIDA STRAITS THIS EVENING. C-MAN STATIONS ALONG THE FLORIDA REEF
ARE RECORDING MAINLY EAST WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS...AS WELL AS AT SMITH
SHOAL LIGHT AND IN FLORIDA BAY.

.FORECAST...THE CENTER OF THE STRONGEST MID LEVEL RIDGING...NEAR 590 DM AT
500 MB WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS.
NEAR 1030 MB RIDGING SITUATED OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIVE FRESH EAST BREEZES OVERNIGHT. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE
MOISTURE REMAINING CONSTANT AROUND 1.50 INCHES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL ENABLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ALLOW CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS. FORECAST
FOR BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITION WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE MAINTAINED OVERNIGHT. NO CHANGES

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN PLACE ACROSS ALL WATERS OVERNIGHT FOR
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...REMAINING CLOSE ENOUGH TO 20 KNOTS.
THE STRONGEST BREEZES WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
BRIEF...MVFR CEILINGS...BASED AT AROUND 2500 FEET...ARE CONCEIVABLE
AT EYW AND MTH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT UNTIL ABOUT SUNRISE MONDAY.
THIS POSSIBILITY IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. SUSTAINED EAST WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS EXPECTED
FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 3000 FEET.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 2008...THE LOW
TEMPERATURE AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS 82 DEGREES. THIS
SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR WARMEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY
WEST ON MAY 24TH. IN ADDITION...THIS LOW TEMPERATURE OF 82 DEGREES
IS TIED AS THE WARMEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED IN KEY WEST
DURING THE MONTH OF MAY. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK
TO 1872.

&&

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GMZ052>055-072>075 & GMZ031>035-042>044

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.................FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/CLIMATE/NOWCASTS.....BS
DATA COLLECTION/UPPER AIR.....CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 250122
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
930 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB)...LATEST AVAILABLE IR
IMAGERY AS OF 900 PM OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS DEPICT A 75 TO
100 KNOT SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET MIGRATING FROM ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA
EASTWARD TO ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...BEFORE DECELERATING AND SPLITTING OFF OF
THE TEXAS COAST WITH THE NORTHERN ARM MOVING NORTHWARDS UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN BRANCH WEAKENING...WITH THE AXIS OF A REGIONAL SCALE MID AND
UPPER RIDGE OVER FLORIDA...CUBA AND THE KEYS.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS...(SURFACE TO 700 MB)...LATEST
AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MARINE AND LAND OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS
AS OF 900 PM DETAIL A STRONG NEAR 1030 MB RIDGE ORIENTED FROM THE OUTER BANKS
EASTWARD TO 35 NORTH 60 WEST. THE 00Z EVENING SOUNDING ILLUSTRATED A MODERATELY
MOIST LOWER TO MID TROPOSPHERE WITH FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS FROM
OFF THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 800 MB...AND COLUMNAR PWAT (PRECIPITABLE WATER)
WAS AT 1.46 INCHES.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 900 PM...KEY WEST RADAR AND SATELLITE DETECTS ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING FROM EAST TO WEST...MOSTLY CONCENTRATED OVER THE
FLORIDA STRAITS THIS EVENING. C-MAN STATIONS ALONG THE FLORIDA REEF
ARE RECORDING MAINLY EAST WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS...AS WELL AS AT SMITH
SHOAL LIGHT AND IN FLORIDA BAY.

.FORECAST...THE CENTER OF THE STRONGEST MID LEVEL RIDGING...NEAR 590 DM AT
500 MB WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS.
NEAR 1030 MB RIDGING SITUATED OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIVE FRESH EAST BREEZES OVERNIGHT. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE
MOISTURE REMAINING CONSTANT AROUND 1.50 INCHES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL ENABLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ALLOW CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS. FORECAST
FOR BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITION WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE MAINTAINED OVERNIGHT. NO CHANGES

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN PLACE ACROSS ALL WATERS OVERNIGHT FOR
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...REMAINING CLOSE ENOUGH TO 20 KNOTS.
THE STRONGEST BREEZES WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
BRIEF...MVFR CEILINGS...BASED AT AROUND 2500 FEET...ARE CONCEIVABLE
AT EYW AND MTH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT UNTIL ABOUT SUNRISE MONDAY.
THIS POSSIBILITY IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. SUSTAINED EAST WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS EXPECTED
FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 3000 FEET.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 2008...THE LOW
TEMPERATURE AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS 82 DEGREES. THIS
SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR WARMEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY
WEST ON MAY 24TH. IN ADDITION...THIS LOW TEMPERATURE OF 82 DEGREES
IS TIED AS THE WARMEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED IN KEY WEST
DURING THE MONTH OF MAY. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK
TO 1872.

&&

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GMZ052>055-072>075 & GMZ031>035-042>044

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.................FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/CLIMATE/NOWCASTS.....BS
DATA COLLECTION/UPPER AIR.....CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 250122
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
930 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB)...LATEST AVAILABLE IR
IMAGERY AS OF 900 PM OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS DEPICT A 75 TO
100 KNOT SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET MIGRATING FROM ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA
EASTWARD TO ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...BEFORE DECELERATING AND SPLITTING OFF OF
THE TEXAS COAST WITH THE NORTHERN ARM MOVING NORTHWARDS UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN BRANCH WEAKENING...WITH THE AXIS OF A REGIONAL SCALE MID AND
UPPER RIDGE OVER FLORIDA...CUBA AND THE KEYS.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS...(SURFACE TO 700 MB)...LATEST
AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MARINE AND LAND OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS
AS OF 900 PM DETAIL A STRONG NEAR 1030 MB RIDGE ORIENTED FROM THE OUTER BANKS
EASTWARD TO 35 NORTH 60 WEST. THE 00Z EVENING SOUNDING ILLUSTRATED A MODERATELY
MOIST LOWER TO MID TROPOSPHERE WITH FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS FROM
OFF THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 800 MB...AND COLUMNAR PWAT (PRECIPITABLE WATER)
WAS AT 1.46 INCHES.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 900 PM...KEY WEST RADAR AND SATELLITE DETECTS ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING FROM EAST TO WEST...MOSTLY CONCENTRATED OVER THE
FLORIDA STRAITS THIS EVENING. C-MAN STATIONS ALONG THE FLORIDA REEF
ARE RECORDING MAINLY EAST WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS...AS WELL AS AT SMITH
SHOAL LIGHT AND IN FLORIDA BAY.

.FORECAST...THE CENTER OF THE STRONGEST MID LEVEL RIDGING...NEAR 590 DM AT
500 MB WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS.
NEAR 1030 MB RIDGING SITUATED OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIVE FRESH EAST BREEZES OVERNIGHT. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE
MOISTURE REMAINING CONSTANT AROUND 1.50 INCHES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL ENABLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ALLOW CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS. FORECAST
FOR BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITION WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE MAINTAINED OVERNIGHT. NO CHANGES

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN PLACE ACROSS ALL WATERS OVERNIGHT FOR
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...REMAINING CLOSE ENOUGH TO 20 KNOTS.
THE STRONGEST BREEZES WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
BRIEF...MVFR CEILINGS...BASED AT AROUND 2500 FEET...ARE CONCEIVABLE
AT EYW AND MTH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT UNTIL ABOUT SUNRISE MONDAY.
THIS POSSIBILITY IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. SUSTAINED EAST WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS EXPECTED
FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 3000 FEET.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 2008...THE LOW
TEMPERATURE AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS 82 DEGREES. THIS
SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR WARMEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY
WEST ON MAY 24TH. IN ADDITION...THIS LOW TEMPERATURE OF 82 DEGREES
IS TIED AS THE WARMEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED IN KEY WEST
DURING THE MONTH OF MAY. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK
TO 1872.

&&

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GMZ052>055-072>075 & GMZ031>035-042>044

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.................FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/CLIMATE/NOWCASTS.....BS
DATA COLLECTION/UPPER AIR.....CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 250122
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
930 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB)...LATEST AVAILABLE IR
IMAGERY AS OF 900 PM OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS DEPICT A 75 TO
100 KNOT SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET MIGRATING FROM ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA
EASTWARD TO ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...BEFORE DECELERATING AND SPLITTING OFF OF
THE TEXAS COAST WITH THE NORTHERN ARM MOVING NORTHWARDS UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN BRANCH WEAKENING...WITH THE AXIS OF A REGIONAL SCALE MID AND
UPPER RIDGE OVER FLORIDA...CUBA AND THE KEYS.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS...(SURFACE TO 700 MB)...LATEST
AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MARINE AND LAND OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS
AS OF 900 PM DETAIL A STRONG NEAR 1030 MB RIDGE ORIENTED FROM THE OUTER BANKS
EASTWARD TO 35 NORTH 60 WEST. THE 00Z EVENING SOUNDING ILLUSTRATED A MODERATELY
MOIST LOWER TO MID TROPOSPHERE WITH FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS FROM
OFF THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 800 MB...AND COLUMNAR PWAT (PRECIPITABLE WATER)
WAS AT 1.46 INCHES.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 900 PM...KEY WEST RADAR AND SATELLITE DETECTS ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING FROM EAST TO WEST...MOSTLY CONCENTRATED OVER THE
FLORIDA STRAITS THIS EVENING. C-MAN STATIONS ALONG THE FLORIDA REEF
ARE RECORDING MAINLY EAST WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS...AS WELL AS AT SMITH
SHOAL LIGHT AND IN FLORIDA BAY.

.FORECAST...THE CENTER OF THE STRONGEST MID LEVEL RIDGING...NEAR 590 DM AT
500 MB WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS.
NEAR 1030 MB RIDGING SITUATED OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIVE FRESH EAST BREEZES OVERNIGHT. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE
MOISTURE REMAINING CONSTANT AROUND 1.50 INCHES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL ENABLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ALLOW CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS. FORECAST
FOR BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITION WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE MAINTAINED OVERNIGHT. NO CHANGES

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN PLACE ACROSS ALL WATERS OVERNIGHT FOR
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...REMAINING CLOSE ENOUGH TO 20 KNOTS.
THE STRONGEST BREEZES WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
BRIEF...MVFR CEILINGS...BASED AT AROUND 2500 FEET...ARE CONCEIVABLE
AT EYW AND MTH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT UNTIL ABOUT SUNRISE MONDAY.
THIS POSSIBILITY IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. SUSTAINED EAST WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS EXPECTED
FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 3000 FEET.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 2008...THE LOW
TEMPERATURE AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS 82 DEGREES. THIS
SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR WARMEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY
WEST ON MAY 24TH. IN ADDITION...THIS LOW TEMPERATURE OF 82 DEGREES
IS TIED AS THE WARMEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED IN KEY WEST
DURING THE MONTH OF MAY. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK
TO 1872.

&&

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GMZ052>055-072>075 & GMZ031>035-042>044

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.................FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/CLIMATE/NOWCASTS.....BS
DATA COLLECTION/UPPER AIR.....CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 241819
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
219 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
WINDS ARE OUT OF THE EAST NEAR 15 KNOTS AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS...AND
WITH THE MARINE STATIONS REPORTING 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THERE ARE A FEW
SHOWERS CROSSING THE KEYS AREA AT THIS HOUR...MAINLY OVER THE STRAITS
TO THE SOUTH OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER KEYS. TYPICAL OF KEY WEST SUMMER
IT WARM AND HUMID WITH 86 DEGREES AND A DEW POINT OF 75...THIS MAKE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 70 PERCENT AND A HEAT INDEX OF 95 DEGREES.

.FORECAST...
THE DOMINATING FACTOR IN THE FORECAST REMAINS THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS
NORTH FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...PLACING THE KEYS IN
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS RIDGE IS THE
REASON FOR THE INCREASING WINDS OVER THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHT PERTURBATIONS IN THE
FLOW CAUSE BREEZES TO PEAK AND LULL THROUGH THURSDAY. THE EASTERLY
FLOW WILL USHER IN SOME ADDED MOISTURE WITH A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE
MOVING OVER THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE EASTERLY WAVE
ENTERING THE AREA AND THE FLUCTUATING EAST WINDS...HAVE INTRODUCED
LOW END CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE RIDGE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID LEVEL LOW SOUTHEAST OF
THE RIDGE...AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. NO CHANGES IN THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK OUTSIDE OF THE
DECREASING WINDS AS THE RIDGE MOVES OUT TO SEA.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAWK CHANNEL AND THE
FLORIDA STRAITS OVERNIGHT...WHILE ADDING THE REST OF THE KEYS COASTAL
WATERS. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SURGE AND LULL BUT REMAIN CLOSE
ENOUGH TO 20 KNOTS THE KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING...AND SPREAD OVER THE
WATERS NORTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST BREEZES WILL
OCCUR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THESE WINDS ARE DUE TO THE
AXIS OF LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...EXTENDING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AT LEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1937...3.15 INCHES OF RAIN
WAS RECORDED IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RAINFALL RECORD FOR MAY
24 IN KEY WEST. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  79  86  77  87 / 20 30 20 20
MARATHON  79  88  77  88 / 20 30 20 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR GMZ031>035-
     042>044.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR GMZ052>055-
     072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....04
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 241819
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
219 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
WINDS ARE OUT OF THE EAST NEAR 15 KNOTS AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS...AND
WITH THE MARINE STATIONS REPORTING 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THERE ARE A FEW
SHOWERS CROSSING THE KEYS AREA AT THIS HOUR...MAINLY OVER THE STRAITS
TO THE SOUTH OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER KEYS. TYPICAL OF KEY WEST SUMMER
IT WARM AND HUMID WITH 86 DEGREES AND A DEW POINT OF 75...THIS MAKE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 70 PERCENT AND A HEAT INDEX OF 95 DEGREES.

.FORECAST...
THE DOMINATING FACTOR IN THE FORECAST REMAINS THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS
NORTH FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...PLACING THE KEYS IN
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS RIDGE IS THE
REASON FOR THE INCREASING WINDS OVER THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHT PERTURBATIONS IN THE
FLOW CAUSE BREEZES TO PEAK AND LULL THROUGH THURSDAY. THE EASTERLY
FLOW WILL USHER IN SOME ADDED MOISTURE WITH A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE
MOVING OVER THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE EASTERLY WAVE
ENTERING THE AREA AND THE FLUCTUATING EAST WINDS...HAVE INTRODUCED
LOW END CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE RIDGE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID LEVEL LOW SOUTHEAST OF
THE RIDGE...AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. NO CHANGES IN THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK OUTSIDE OF THE
DECREASING WINDS AS THE RIDGE MOVES OUT TO SEA.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAWK CHANNEL AND THE
FLORIDA STRAITS OVERNIGHT...WHILE ADDING THE REST OF THE KEYS COASTAL
WATERS. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SURGE AND LULL BUT REMAIN CLOSE
ENOUGH TO 20 KNOTS THE KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING...AND SPREAD OVER THE
WATERS NORTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST BREEZES WILL
OCCUR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THESE WINDS ARE DUE TO THE
AXIS OF LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...EXTENDING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AT LEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1937...3.15 INCHES OF RAIN
WAS RECORDED IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RAINFALL RECORD FOR MAY
24 IN KEY WEST. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  79  86  77  87 / 20 30 20 20
MARATHON  79  88  77  88 / 20 30 20 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR GMZ031>035-
     042>044.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR GMZ052>055-
     072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....04
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 241327
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
927 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING WE FIND CLOUD STREETS TO THE WEST OF THE
LOWER KEYS WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TO THE WEST
NEAR 25 KNOTS. SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME LOW LEVEL
CUMULUS...AND SOME CIRROSTRATUS ALOFT. WINDS ARE 15 TO 20 KNOTS OUT
OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT THE MARINE REPORTING STATIONS SURROUNDING
THE ISLAND CHAIN...AND NEAR 15 KNOTS AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS.

.FORECAST...
THE HEADLINER IS...AND WILL BE FOR THE NEXT 4 DAYS...IS THE RIDGE
PARKED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS RIDGE IS THE CULPRIT FOR THE
FRESH EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE KEYS AREA. SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THE
CONVERGENT EASTERLY FLOW...AS WINDS SURGE AND LULL THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING DUE TO A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE
WESTERN BAHAMAS ISLANDS. MAY HAVE TO INCREASE RAN TO AT LEAST LOW
END CHANCE FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT BUT WILL WAIT FOR THE NEXT
MODEL RUNS TO PIN DOWN THE TIMING AND INTENSITY A LITTLE BETTER.
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH THE RIDGE FINALLY
BREAKING DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAWK CHANNEL AND THE
FLORIDA STRAITS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL SURGE AND LULL BUT REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO 20 KNOTS THE KEEP THE
ADVISORY GOING. THE STRONGEST BREEZES WILL OCCUR LATE MONDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY WITH 20 TO 25 KNOTS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
STRAITS. THESE WINDS ARE DUE TO THE AXIS OF LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...EXTENDING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA
AND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE AT LEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1873...THE  HIGH
TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST HIT 92 DEGREES. THIS IS A LONG-STANDING DAILY
HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR MAY 24 IN KEY WEST SINCE TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR
DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ052>055-
     072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....04
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 241327
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
927 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING WE FIND CLOUD STREETS TO THE WEST OF THE
LOWER KEYS WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TO THE WEST
NEAR 25 KNOTS. SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME LOW LEVEL
CUMULUS...AND SOME CIRROSTRATUS ALOFT. WINDS ARE 15 TO 20 KNOTS OUT
OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT THE MARINE REPORTING STATIONS SURROUNDING
THE ISLAND CHAIN...AND NEAR 15 KNOTS AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS.

.FORECAST...
THE HEADLINER IS...AND WILL BE FOR THE NEXT 4 DAYS...IS THE RIDGE
PARKED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS RIDGE IS THE CULPRIT FOR THE
FRESH EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE KEYS AREA. SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THE
CONVERGENT EASTERLY FLOW...AS WINDS SURGE AND LULL THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING DUE TO A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE
WESTERN BAHAMAS ISLANDS. MAY HAVE TO INCREASE RAN TO AT LEAST LOW
END CHANCE FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT BUT WILL WAIT FOR THE NEXT
MODEL RUNS TO PIN DOWN THE TIMING AND INTENSITY A LITTLE BETTER.
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH THE RIDGE FINALLY
BREAKING DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAWK CHANNEL AND THE
FLORIDA STRAITS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL SURGE AND LULL BUT REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO 20 KNOTS THE KEEP THE
ADVISORY GOING. THE STRONGEST BREEZES WILL OCCUR LATE MONDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY WITH 20 TO 25 KNOTS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
STRAITS. THESE WINDS ARE DUE TO THE AXIS OF LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...EXTENDING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA
AND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE AT LEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1873...THE  HIGH
TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST HIT 92 DEGREES. THIS IS A LONG-STANDING DAILY
HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR MAY 24 IN KEY WEST SINCE TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR
DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ052>055-
     072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....04
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 241327
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
927 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING WE FIND CLOUD STREETS TO THE WEST OF THE
LOWER KEYS WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TO THE WEST
NEAR 25 KNOTS. SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME LOW LEVEL
CUMULUS...AND SOME CIRROSTRATUS ALOFT. WINDS ARE 15 TO 20 KNOTS OUT
OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT THE MARINE REPORTING STATIONS SURROUNDING
THE ISLAND CHAIN...AND NEAR 15 KNOTS AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS.

.FORECAST...
THE HEADLINER IS...AND WILL BE FOR THE NEXT 4 DAYS...IS THE RIDGE
PARKED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS RIDGE IS THE CULPRIT FOR THE
FRESH EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE KEYS AREA. SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THE
CONVERGENT EASTERLY FLOW...AS WINDS SURGE AND LULL THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING DUE TO A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE
WESTERN BAHAMAS ISLANDS. MAY HAVE TO INCREASE RAN TO AT LEAST LOW
END CHANCE FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT BUT WILL WAIT FOR THE NEXT
MODEL RUNS TO PIN DOWN THE TIMING AND INTENSITY A LITTLE BETTER.
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH THE RIDGE FINALLY
BREAKING DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAWK CHANNEL AND THE
FLORIDA STRAITS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL SURGE AND LULL BUT REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO 20 KNOTS THE KEEP THE
ADVISORY GOING. THE STRONGEST BREEZES WILL OCCUR LATE MONDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY WITH 20 TO 25 KNOTS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
STRAITS. THESE WINDS ARE DUE TO THE AXIS OF LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...EXTENDING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA
AND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE AT LEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1873...THE  HIGH
TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST HIT 92 DEGREES. THIS IS A LONG-STANDING DAILY
HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR MAY 24 IN KEY WEST SINCE TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR
DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ052>055-
     072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....04
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 241327
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
927 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING WE FIND CLOUD STREETS TO THE WEST OF THE
LOWER KEYS WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TO THE WEST
NEAR 25 KNOTS. SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME LOW LEVEL
CUMULUS...AND SOME CIRROSTRATUS ALOFT. WINDS ARE 15 TO 20 KNOTS OUT
OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT THE MARINE REPORTING STATIONS SURROUNDING
THE ISLAND CHAIN...AND NEAR 15 KNOTS AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS.

.FORECAST...
THE HEADLINER IS...AND WILL BE FOR THE NEXT 4 DAYS...IS THE RIDGE
PARKED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS RIDGE IS THE CULPRIT FOR THE
FRESH EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE KEYS AREA. SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THE
CONVERGENT EASTERLY FLOW...AS WINDS SURGE AND LULL THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING DUE TO A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE
WESTERN BAHAMAS ISLANDS. MAY HAVE TO INCREASE RAN TO AT LEAST LOW
END CHANCE FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT BUT WILL WAIT FOR THE NEXT
MODEL RUNS TO PIN DOWN THE TIMING AND INTENSITY A LITTLE BETTER.
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH THE RIDGE FINALLY
BREAKING DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAWK CHANNEL AND THE
FLORIDA STRAITS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL SURGE AND LULL BUT REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO 20 KNOTS THE KEEP THE
ADVISORY GOING. THE STRONGEST BREEZES WILL OCCUR LATE MONDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY WITH 20 TO 25 KNOTS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
STRAITS. THESE WINDS ARE DUE TO THE AXIS OF LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...EXTENDING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA
AND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE AT LEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1873...THE  HIGH
TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST HIT 92 DEGREES. THIS IS A LONG-STANDING DAILY
HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR MAY 24 IN KEY WEST SINCE TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR
DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ052>055-
     072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....04
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 240845
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
445 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS NORTHWARD FROM THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AS A RESULT...A DEEP LOW-
MID TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC. A SURGE OF EASTERLY BREEZES SWEPT THROUGH
THE FLORIDA KEYS LAST EVENING...RESPONDING TO THE DEVELOPING SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. CURRENT MARINE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SUSTAINED
WINDS IN THE HIGH TEENS (KTS) WITH FREQUENT GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 20S.
SHOWER COVERAGE HAS LESSENED WITHIN THE PAST FEW HOURS DUE TO MID
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE...SUPPORTED BY RECENT SATELLITE BASED FORECAST
SOUNDINGS.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT
CHANGED...FRESH EASTERLY BREEZES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE GOVERNED BY THE WEAK CONVERGENT SWATHS AHEAD OF
UNDULATING WIND SURGES. SUBSIDENCE SURROUNDING 700 MB WILL LIMIT DEEP
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW (REACHING 400 MB
BY TUESDAY)...PARCELS MAY BE ABLE TO ESCAPE INTO LEVELS OF FREE
CONVECTION. THEREFORE...WE HAVE RETAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN IDENTIFIABLE SWATH (MIMIC TPW) OF INCREASED
MOISTURE WILL REACH THE FLORIDA KEYS SOMETIME MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES
MAY NEED TO BE NUDGED UPWARD AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S...AND LOWS WILL STRUGGLE
TO FALL THROUGH THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...UNDULATING EASTERLIES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM....RESULTING IN BREEZY
EASTERLIES AND SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES. NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE
FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA...AND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE HOISTED TONIGHT FOR THE
REMAINING COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL PEAK AND LULL FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE STRONGEST BREEZES WILL FILTER INTO THE KEYS COASTAL
WATERS MONDAY NIGHT. SEAS AS HIGH AS 8 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING IN THE GULF STREAM. FROM SYNOPSIS...AN ATLANTIC RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. FRESH EASTERLY BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL KEYS COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS
TODAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS...WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  87  79  87  79 / 20 20 20 20
MARATHON  89  79  89  79 / 20 20 20 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     GMZ052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....11
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 240845
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
445 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS NORTHWARD FROM THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AS A RESULT...A DEEP LOW-
MID TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC. A SURGE OF EASTERLY BREEZES SWEPT THROUGH
THE FLORIDA KEYS LAST EVENING...RESPONDING TO THE DEVELOPING SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. CURRENT MARINE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SUSTAINED
WINDS IN THE HIGH TEENS (KTS) WITH FREQUENT GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 20S.
SHOWER COVERAGE HAS LESSENED WITHIN THE PAST FEW HOURS DUE TO MID
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE...SUPPORTED BY RECENT SATELLITE BASED FORECAST
SOUNDINGS.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT
CHANGED...FRESH EASTERLY BREEZES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE GOVERNED BY THE WEAK CONVERGENT SWATHS AHEAD OF
UNDULATING WIND SURGES. SUBSIDENCE SURROUNDING 700 MB WILL LIMIT DEEP
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW (REACHING 400 MB
BY TUESDAY)...PARCELS MAY BE ABLE TO ESCAPE INTO LEVELS OF FREE
CONVECTION. THEREFORE...WE HAVE RETAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN IDENTIFIABLE SWATH (MIMIC TPW) OF INCREASED
MOISTURE WILL REACH THE FLORIDA KEYS SOMETIME MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES
MAY NEED TO BE NUDGED UPWARD AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S...AND LOWS WILL STRUGGLE
TO FALL THROUGH THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...UNDULATING EASTERLIES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM....RESULTING IN BREEZY
EASTERLIES AND SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES. NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE
FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA...AND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE HOISTED TONIGHT FOR THE
REMAINING COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL PEAK AND LULL FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE STRONGEST BREEZES WILL FILTER INTO THE KEYS COASTAL
WATERS MONDAY NIGHT. SEAS AS HIGH AS 8 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING IN THE GULF STREAM. FROM SYNOPSIS...AN ATLANTIC RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. FRESH EASTERLY BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL KEYS COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS
TODAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS...WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  87  79  87  79 / 20 20 20 20
MARATHON  89  79  89  79 / 20 20 20 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     GMZ052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....11
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 240131
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
935 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER OFFSHORE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE LOWER KEYS. ELSEWHERE...KBYX DETECTS NO
PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN THE REMAINDER ON THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES
OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDS OVER LAND ARE
NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH. C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE
NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S.

.SHORT TERM (OVERNIGHT)...
IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR
THE COAST OF VIRGINIA WILL ENTER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN
OVERNIGHT. IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AN ANTICYCLONE WILL
BE CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES TONIGHT.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OVERNIGHT. THE 00Z KKEY
SOUNDING IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND SEASONABLY MOIST...WITH A
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE JUST ABOVE ONE AND ONE HALF OF AN INCH.
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONSTANT OVERNIGHT. DESPITE
ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR
CONVECTION...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ON ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING DUE TO SUSTAINED EAST SURFACE WINDS OF
15 TO 20 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR ALL KEYS
COASTAL WATERS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS
TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS TUESDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED
TO EXERCISE CAUTION ON THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO SUSTAINED EAST SURFACE WINDS OF
15 TO 20 KNOTS. SUSTAINED EAST SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE ON THE COASTAL WATERS OF FLORIDA BAY...THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AND HAWK CHANNEL WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SUSTAINED
EAST SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ON ALL KEYS
COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHRA/TSRA THAT DEVELOPED NEAR KEYW EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAS
DIMINISHED. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCATTERED
CU AT 2500 FT. EAST WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS EXPECTED.
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE A BIT DRIER ON SUNDAY SO ONLY ISOLATED SHRA
EXPECTED...NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO MENTION IN TAF.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 2008...THE LOW
TEMPERATURE AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS 82 DEGREES. THIS
SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR WARMEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY
WEST ON MAY 23RD. IN ADDITION...THIS LOW TEMPERATURE OF 82 DEGREES
IS TIED AS THE WARMEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED IN KEY WEST
DURING THE MONTH OF MAY. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK
TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/CLIMATE/FIRE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....................MM
DATA ACQUISITION.....................CHESSER

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 240131
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
935 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER OFFSHORE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE LOWER KEYS. ELSEWHERE...KBYX DETECTS NO
PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN THE REMAINDER ON THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES
OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDS OVER LAND ARE
NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH. C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE
NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S.

.SHORT TERM (OVERNIGHT)...
IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR
THE COAST OF VIRGINIA WILL ENTER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN
OVERNIGHT. IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AN ANTICYCLONE WILL
BE CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES TONIGHT.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OVERNIGHT. THE 00Z KKEY
SOUNDING IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND SEASONABLY MOIST...WITH A
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE JUST ABOVE ONE AND ONE HALF OF AN INCH.
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONSTANT OVERNIGHT. DESPITE
ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR
CONVECTION...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ON ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING DUE TO SUSTAINED EAST SURFACE WINDS OF
15 TO 20 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR ALL KEYS
COASTAL WATERS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS
TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS TUESDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED
TO EXERCISE CAUTION ON THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO SUSTAINED EAST SURFACE WINDS OF
15 TO 20 KNOTS. SUSTAINED EAST SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE ON THE COASTAL WATERS OF FLORIDA BAY...THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AND HAWK CHANNEL WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SUSTAINED
EAST SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ON ALL KEYS
COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHRA/TSRA THAT DEVELOPED NEAR KEYW EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAS
DIMINISHED. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCATTERED
CU AT 2500 FT. EAST WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS EXPECTED.
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE A BIT DRIER ON SUNDAY SO ONLY ISOLATED SHRA
EXPECTED...NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO MENTION IN TAF.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 2008...THE LOW
TEMPERATURE AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS 82 DEGREES. THIS
SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR WARMEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY
WEST ON MAY 23RD. IN ADDITION...THIS LOW TEMPERATURE OF 82 DEGREES
IS TIED AS THE WARMEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED IN KEY WEST
DURING THE MONTH OF MAY. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK
TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/CLIMATE/FIRE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....................MM
DATA ACQUISITION.....................CHESSER

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 240131
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
935 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER OFFSHORE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE LOWER KEYS. ELSEWHERE...KBYX DETECTS NO
PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN THE REMAINDER ON THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES
OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDS OVER LAND ARE
NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH. C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE
NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S.

.SHORT TERM (OVERNIGHT)...
IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR
THE COAST OF VIRGINIA WILL ENTER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN
OVERNIGHT. IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AN ANTICYCLONE WILL
BE CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES TONIGHT.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OVERNIGHT. THE 00Z KKEY
SOUNDING IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND SEASONABLY MOIST...WITH A
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE JUST ABOVE ONE AND ONE HALF OF AN INCH.
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONSTANT OVERNIGHT. DESPITE
ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR
CONVECTION...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ON ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING DUE TO SUSTAINED EAST SURFACE WINDS OF
15 TO 20 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR ALL KEYS
COASTAL WATERS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS
TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS TUESDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED
TO EXERCISE CAUTION ON THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO SUSTAINED EAST SURFACE WINDS OF
15 TO 20 KNOTS. SUSTAINED EAST SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE ON THE COASTAL WATERS OF FLORIDA BAY...THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AND HAWK CHANNEL WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SUSTAINED
EAST SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ON ALL KEYS
COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHRA/TSRA THAT DEVELOPED NEAR KEYW EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAS
DIMINISHED. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCATTERED
CU AT 2500 FT. EAST WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS EXPECTED.
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE A BIT DRIER ON SUNDAY SO ONLY ISOLATED SHRA
EXPECTED...NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO MENTION IN TAF.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 2008...THE LOW
TEMPERATURE AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS 82 DEGREES. THIS
SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR WARMEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY
WEST ON MAY 23RD. IN ADDITION...THIS LOW TEMPERATURE OF 82 DEGREES
IS TIED AS THE WARMEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED IN KEY WEST
DURING THE MONTH OF MAY. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK
TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/CLIMATE/FIRE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....................MM
DATA ACQUISITION.....................CHESSER

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 240131
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
935 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER OFFSHORE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE LOWER KEYS. ELSEWHERE...KBYX DETECTS NO
PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN THE REMAINDER ON THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES
OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDS OVER LAND ARE
NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH. C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE
NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S.

.SHORT TERM (OVERNIGHT)...
IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR
THE COAST OF VIRGINIA WILL ENTER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN
OVERNIGHT. IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AN ANTICYCLONE WILL
BE CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES TONIGHT.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OVERNIGHT. THE 00Z KKEY
SOUNDING IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND SEASONABLY MOIST...WITH A
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE JUST ABOVE ONE AND ONE HALF OF AN INCH.
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONSTANT OVERNIGHT. DESPITE
ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR
CONVECTION...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ON ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING DUE TO SUSTAINED EAST SURFACE WINDS OF
15 TO 20 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR ALL KEYS
COASTAL WATERS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS
TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS TUESDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED
TO EXERCISE CAUTION ON THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO SUSTAINED EAST SURFACE WINDS OF
15 TO 20 KNOTS. SUSTAINED EAST SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE ON THE COASTAL WATERS OF FLORIDA BAY...THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AND HAWK CHANNEL WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SUSTAINED
EAST SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ON ALL KEYS
COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHRA/TSRA THAT DEVELOPED NEAR KEYW EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAS
DIMINISHED. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCATTERED
CU AT 2500 FT. EAST WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS EXPECTED.
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE A BIT DRIER ON SUNDAY SO ONLY ISOLATED SHRA
EXPECTED...NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO MENTION IN TAF.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 2008...THE LOW
TEMPERATURE AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS 82 DEGREES. THIS
SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR WARMEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY
WEST ON MAY 23RD. IN ADDITION...THIS LOW TEMPERATURE OF 82 DEGREES
IS TIED AS THE WARMEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED IN KEY WEST
DURING THE MONTH OF MAY. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK
TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/CLIMATE/FIRE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....................MM
DATA ACQUISITION.....................CHESSER

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 231830
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
230 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE HEADING WEST OF KEY
WEST AT THIS HOUR. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW BOUNDARY COLLISIONS AS THE
EASTERLY FLOW INTERACTS WITH THE CLOUD LINE MOVING OFF THE LOWER
KEYS. THESE EASTERLY WINDS ARE AROUND 10 KNOTS AT THE ISLAND
TERMINALS...AND 10 TO 15 KNOTS AT THE MARINE REPORTING STATIONS
SURROUNDING THE KEYS...OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. A LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CONSOLIDATING NEAR THE DELMARVA COAST AND IS THE
CATALYST FOR THE INCREASING WINDS TURNING TO THE EAST TODAY.

.FORECAST...
THE RIDGE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL INTENSIFY...INCREASING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND THEREFORE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE EASTERLY FETCH OF WINDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
STRAITS...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE INCREASED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BY ITSELF IS NOT ENOUGH TO CAUSE AN INCREASE IN THE
POPS FORECAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A BIT MORE FAVORABLE
VERTICAL PROFILE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A WEAK PERTURBATION
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...BUT WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FORECAST
FOR NOW DUE TO INCONSISTENCY IN THE GUIDANCE. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
GREATER DURING THE NOCTURNAL CYCLE DUE TO BOUNDARIES MOVING OFF THE
LARGER LAND MASSES SURROUNDING THE ISLAND CHAIN CONVERGING OVER THE
AREA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE WESTWARD
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND WEAKEN THE MID ATLANTIC RIDGE...BREAKING DOWN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND DECREASING WINDS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
FRESHENING WINDS ARE DUE TO A BUILDING RIDGE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. THESE FRESH WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK WITH
THE HIGHEST WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WE MAY SEE SOME PEAKS
AND LULLS IN WINDS THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH TIMING AND DURATION TOO
UNCERTAIN TO ADDRESS AT THIS TIME. AN UPPER LOW WILL TRAVEL WESTWARD
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY AND BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE...RESULTING IN WEAKENING
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS OVER THE KEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...
A SMALL POCKET OF SHOWERS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL SKIRT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF KEY WEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
AFTERNOON. THIS MAY PRODUCE MVFR OR EVEN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS TO KEY
WEST...AND THIS HAS BEEN TEMPOED AT THAT LOCATION. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON ISLAND
TERMINALS. SURFACE WINDS FROM THE EAST INITIALLY AT OR AROUND 10 KNOTS
WILL SLOWLY BUT STEADILY INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1940...THE LOW TEMPERATURE
IN KEY WEST DIPPED TO 69 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY LOW TEMPERATURE
FOR MAY 23 IN KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK
TO 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  79  87  79  87 / 20 20 20 20
MARATHON  79  89  79  89 / 20 20 20 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....04
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 231255
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
855 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
A LOOK AT THE RADAR SCREEN SHOWS LINGERING BOUNDARIES WITH SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS LEFT OVER FROM NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY. THE MORNING
SOUNDING HAS AMPLE MIXED LAYER CAPE...BUT REMAINS VERY DRY ALOFT. A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
THIS MORNING...AND WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE FORECAST.

.FORECAST...
THE RIDGE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL CONTINUE TO HEAD OFFSHORE...AND EXPEND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TURNING WINDS MORE NORTHEAST THEN EAST...WHILE
FRESHENING. AS THE WINDS TURN MORE TO THE EAST...THE LONG FETCH OVER
THE GULF STREAM WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL NEED A KICKER TO CREATE
SHOWERS AND EXPECT THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE DURING THE NOCTURNAL CYCLE DUE TO LAND BREEZE AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES MOVING OFF THE LARGER LAND MASSES OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND
CUBA. AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
FORECAST DUE TO TIMING OF CONVECTION. OUTSIDE OF ANY RAIN COOLED
TEMPERATURE DECREASES WOULD EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 80...WITH
LITTLE DIURNAL RANGE AS DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.MARINE...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL GRADUALLY
FRESHEN WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THESE FRESH WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. WE MAY SEE SOME PEAKS AND LULLS IN WINDS THROUGH MIDWEEK
WITH TIMING AND DURATION TOO UNCERTAIN TO ADDRESS AT THIS TIME. AN
UPPER LOW WILL TRAVEL WESTWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OR THURSDAY AND BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
RIDGE...RESULTING IN WEAKENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS OVER
THE KEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON ISLAND
TERMINALS. SURFACE WINDS FROM THE EAST INITIALLY AT OR AROUND 10
KNOTS WILL SLOWLY BUT STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1873...THE  HIGH
TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST HIT 92 DEGREES. THIS IS A LONG-STANDING DAILY
HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR MAY 23 IN KEY WEST...SINCE TEMPERATURE
RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....04
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 231255
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
855 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
A LOOK AT THE RADAR SCREEN SHOWS LINGERING BOUNDARIES WITH SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS LEFT OVER FROM NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY. THE MORNING
SOUNDING HAS AMPLE MIXED LAYER CAPE...BUT REMAINS VERY DRY ALOFT. A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
THIS MORNING...AND WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE FORECAST.

.FORECAST...
THE RIDGE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL CONTINUE TO HEAD OFFSHORE...AND EXPEND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TURNING WINDS MORE NORTHEAST THEN EAST...WHILE
FRESHENING. AS THE WINDS TURN MORE TO THE EAST...THE LONG FETCH OVER
THE GULF STREAM WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL NEED A KICKER TO CREATE
SHOWERS AND EXPECT THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE DURING THE NOCTURNAL CYCLE DUE TO LAND BREEZE AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES MOVING OFF THE LARGER LAND MASSES OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND
CUBA. AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
FORECAST DUE TO TIMING OF CONVECTION. OUTSIDE OF ANY RAIN COOLED
TEMPERATURE DECREASES WOULD EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 80...WITH
LITTLE DIURNAL RANGE AS DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.MARINE...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL GRADUALLY
FRESHEN WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THESE FRESH WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. WE MAY SEE SOME PEAKS AND LULLS IN WINDS THROUGH MIDWEEK
WITH TIMING AND DURATION TOO UNCERTAIN TO ADDRESS AT THIS TIME. AN
UPPER LOW WILL TRAVEL WESTWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OR THURSDAY AND BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
RIDGE...RESULTING IN WEAKENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS OVER
THE KEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON ISLAND
TERMINALS. SURFACE WINDS FROM THE EAST INITIALLY AT OR AROUND 10
KNOTS WILL SLOWLY BUT STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1873...THE  HIGH
TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST HIT 92 DEGREES. THIS IS A LONG-STANDING DAILY
HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR MAY 23 IN KEY WEST...SINCE TEMPERATURE
RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....04
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 231255
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
855 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
A LOOK AT THE RADAR SCREEN SHOWS LINGERING BOUNDARIES WITH SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS LEFT OVER FROM NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY. THE MORNING
SOUNDING HAS AMPLE MIXED LAYER CAPE...BUT REMAINS VERY DRY ALOFT. A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
THIS MORNING...AND WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE FORECAST.

.FORECAST...
THE RIDGE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL CONTINUE TO HEAD OFFSHORE...AND EXPEND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TURNING WINDS MORE NORTHEAST THEN EAST...WHILE
FRESHENING. AS THE WINDS TURN MORE TO THE EAST...THE LONG FETCH OVER
THE GULF STREAM WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL NEED A KICKER TO CREATE
SHOWERS AND EXPECT THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE DURING THE NOCTURNAL CYCLE DUE TO LAND BREEZE AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES MOVING OFF THE LARGER LAND MASSES OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND
CUBA. AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
FORECAST DUE TO TIMING OF CONVECTION. OUTSIDE OF ANY RAIN COOLED
TEMPERATURE DECREASES WOULD EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 80...WITH
LITTLE DIURNAL RANGE AS DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.MARINE...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL GRADUALLY
FRESHEN WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THESE FRESH WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. WE MAY SEE SOME PEAKS AND LULLS IN WINDS THROUGH MIDWEEK
WITH TIMING AND DURATION TOO UNCERTAIN TO ADDRESS AT THIS TIME. AN
UPPER LOW WILL TRAVEL WESTWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OR THURSDAY AND BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
RIDGE...RESULTING IN WEAKENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS OVER
THE KEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON ISLAND
TERMINALS. SURFACE WINDS FROM THE EAST INITIALLY AT OR AROUND 10
KNOTS WILL SLOWLY BUT STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1873...THE  HIGH
TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST HIT 92 DEGREES. THIS IS A LONG-STANDING DAILY
HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR MAY 23 IN KEY WEST...SINCE TEMPERATURE
RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....04
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 231255
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
855 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
A LOOK AT THE RADAR SCREEN SHOWS LINGERING BOUNDARIES WITH SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS LEFT OVER FROM NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY. THE MORNING
SOUNDING HAS AMPLE MIXED LAYER CAPE...BUT REMAINS VERY DRY ALOFT. A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
THIS MORNING...AND WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE FORECAST.

.FORECAST...
THE RIDGE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL CONTINUE TO HEAD OFFSHORE...AND EXPEND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TURNING WINDS MORE NORTHEAST THEN EAST...WHILE
FRESHENING. AS THE WINDS TURN MORE TO THE EAST...THE LONG FETCH OVER
THE GULF STREAM WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL NEED A KICKER TO CREATE
SHOWERS AND EXPECT THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE DURING THE NOCTURNAL CYCLE DUE TO LAND BREEZE AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES MOVING OFF THE LARGER LAND MASSES OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND
CUBA. AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
FORECAST DUE TO TIMING OF CONVECTION. OUTSIDE OF ANY RAIN COOLED
TEMPERATURE DECREASES WOULD EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 80...WITH
LITTLE DIURNAL RANGE AS DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.MARINE...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL GRADUALLY
FRESHEN WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THESE FRESH WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. WE MAY SEE SOME PEAKS AND LULLS IN WINDS THROUGH MIDWEEK
WITH TIMING AND DURATION TOO UNCERTAIN TO ADDRESS AT THIS TIME. AN
UPPER LOW WILL TRAVEL WESTWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OR THURSDAY AND BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
RIDGE...RESULTING IN WEAKENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS OVER
THE KEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON ISLAND
TERMINALS. SURFACE WINDS FROM THE EAST INITIALLY AT OR AROUND 10
KNOTS WILL SLOWLY BUT STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1873...THE  HIGH
TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST HIT 92 DEGREES. THIS IS A LONG-STANDING DAILY
HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR MAY 23 IN KEY WEST...SINCE TEMPERATURE
RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....04
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 230839
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
439 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES HAS STARTED TO INFLUENCE THE FLORIDA KEYS. GENTLE
EASTERLY BREEZES PREVAIL AT THE AVAILABLE LAND AND MARINE OBSERVING
STATIONS. THE HIGH IS NESTLED DOWNSTREAM FROM DEEP TROPOSPHERIC
HEIGHT RISES...WELL PORTRAYED ON LAST EVENING`S (00Z) RAOB ANALYSES.
IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...THE KBYX RADAR HAS SAMPLED INCREASING
SHOWER COVERAGE WEST OF ANDROS ISLAND AND ACROSS THE CAY SAL BANK.
TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 80 DEGREES...AND DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 70S.
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES WILL
DEEPEN AND STRENGTHEN TODAY AND TONIGHT...IN FACT...EASTERLIES WILL
CLIMB TO NEARLY 400 MB BY SUNDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...HOSTILE
SUBSIDENCE WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. THE
ANTICYCLONIC GYRE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FRESHENING BREEZES WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...RELAXING
THE LOW LEVEL INHIBITION. NUMERICAL OUTPUT HAS BEEN HINTING AT BETTER
CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...THESE PATTERNS NORMALLY RESULT
IN NOCTURNAL MAXIMA IN PRECIPITATION WHICH FAVOR THE NIGHT BUT
PERSIST INTO THE MORNINGS. SO...INSTEAD OF ADVERTISING OSCILLATING
10/30 RAIN CHANCES...WE HAVE RETAINED A BLANKET 20 PERCENT THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATED INTO THE MID-
UPPER 80S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STRUGGLE TO FALL TOWARDS 80.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...UNDULATIONS IN THE LOW
LEVEL EASTERLIES WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC SWATHS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
THROUGH THURSDAY. IT APPEARS THAT A LONG STRETCH OF OCCASIONALLY
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. A RETROGRADING CYCLONIC GYRE MAY
RELAX THE GRADIENT TO OUR NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IF
THIS COMES TO BE TRUE...THE BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ABATE BY THE END
OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES TODAY...THEN EXPAND AND PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN NORTH
ATLANTIC TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FRESH
BREEZES WILL BEGIN TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST EASTERLY BREEZES ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE
WINDOWS OF SLACKENED BREEZES WHICH ARE INHERENTLY DIFFICULT TO
PREDICT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AT THE ISLAND
TERMINALS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY NEAR 10 KNOTS...AND
STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  87  79  87  79 / 20 20 20 20
MARATHON  89  79  89  79 / 20 20 20 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....11
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 230839
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
439 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES HAS STARTED TO INFLUENCE THE FLORIDA KEYS. GENTLE
EASTERLY BREEZES PREVAIL AT THE AVAILABLE LAND AND MARINE OBSERVING
STATIONS. THE HIGH IS NESTLED DOWNSTREAM FROM DEEP TROPOSPHERIC
HEIGHT RISES...WELL PORTRAYED ON LAST EVENING`S (00Z) RAOB ANALYSES.
IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...THE KBYX RADAR HAS SAMPLED INCREASING
SHOWER COVERAGE WEST OF ANDROS ISLAND AND ACROSS THE CAY SAL BANK.
TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 80 DEGREES...AND DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 70S.
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES WILL
DEEPEN AND STRENGTHEN TODAY AND TONIGHT...IN FACT...EASTERLIES WILL
CLIMB TO NEARLY 400 MB BY SUNDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...HOSTILE
SUBSIDENCE WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. THE
ANTICYCLONIC GYRE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FRESHENING BREEZES WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...RELAXING
THE LOW LEVEL INHIBITION. NUMERICAL OUTPUT HAS BEEN HINTING AT BETTER
CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...THESE PATTERNS NORMALLY RESULT
IN NOCTURNAL MAXIMA IN PRECIPITATION WHICH FAVOR THE NIGHT BUT
PERSIST INTO THE MORNINGS. SO...INSTEAD OF ADVERTISING OSCILLATING
10/30 RAIN CHANCES...WE HAVE RETAINED A BLANKET 20 PERCENT THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATED INTO THE MID-
UPPER 80S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STRUGGLE TO FALL TOWARDS 80.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...UNDULATIONS IN THE LOW
LEVEL EASTERLIES WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC SWATHS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
THROUGH THURSDAY. IT APPEARS THAT A LONG STRETCH OF OCCASIONALLY
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. A RETROGRADING CYCLONIC GYRE MAY
RELAX THE GRADIENT TO OUR NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IF
THIS COMES TO BE TRUE...THE BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ABATE BY THE END
OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES TODAY...THEN EXPAND AND PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN NORTH
ATLANTIC TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FRESH
BREEZES WILL BEGIN TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST EASTERLY BREEZES ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE
WINDOWS OF SLACKENED BREEZES WHICH ARE INHERENTLY DIFFICULT TO
PREDICT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AT THE ISLAND
TERMINALS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY NEAR 10 KNOTS...AND
STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  87  79  87  79 / 20 20 20 20
MARATHON  89  79  89  79 / 20 20 20 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....11
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

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