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000
FXUS62 KKEY 021854
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
254 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
CHANGES TO FORECAST -- INCREASED RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ADJUSTED WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS SEVERAL PERIODS.

CURRENT SITUATION AND ANALYSIS -- MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES HAVE
PERSISTED ACROSS THE KEYS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS TODAY...BUT A
DOWNWARD TREND IN WIND SPEED HAS DEVELOPED IN SOME ZONES DURING THE
LAST FEW HOURS. ON OCCASION...SHORT-LIVED...LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE POPPED
UP. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN PRIMARILY RAIN-FREE ACROSS MOST OF
THE SERVICE AREA TODAY. CURRENTLY...AIR TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID
80S WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S. DEEP RIDGING AND
LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE STILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION.

PROGNOSTIC OVERVIEW -- CUBAN SEA-BREEZE SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY
WILL EMERGE NORTHWARD OVER THE STRAITS. HOWEVER...WEAKENING STEERING
FLOW AND DRY/STABLE AIR OVER SHOULD LIMIT NORTHWARD MIGRATION AND
SECOND-GENERATION CELLS. STILL...SOME STRATOCUMULUS AND ALTOCUMULUS
DECKS MAY DEVELOP AND REACH THE KEYS OVERNIGHT. WEATHER PREDICTION
MODEL TRENDS POINT TO INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A SIGNIFICANT SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH MIGRATING THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITHIN A FAST...
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT DURING THE WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME. THIS
EVOLUTION WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A LATE-SEASON COLD/COOL FRONT
REACHING THE FLORIDA KEYS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND LIKELY PRECEDED BY A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS...SHOWERS...AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THEREAFTER...A
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR MASS SHOULD FILTER INTO THE
FLORIDA KEYS FOR A FEW DAYS...BEFORE VEERING LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES
LEAD TO QUICK AIR MASS MODIFICATION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
TONIGHT. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC
WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. AS A
RESULT...LIGHTER BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ACROSS FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL
WATERS. A TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WEDNESDAY...
RESULTING IN INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
WEAK...LATE-SEASON FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. BREEZES ARE FORECAST
TO SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND FRESHEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 03/18Z...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH EYW
AND MTH. A FEW SHOWERS OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION MAY OCCASIONALLY
REACH THE VICINITY OF EACH TERMINAL. HOWEVER...THE CHANCE OF SUB-MVFR
CONDITIONS REMAINS TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN TAFS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  79  86  77  83 / 20 20 30 50
MARATHON  79  88  77  85 / 20 20 30 50
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KASPER
DATA COLLECTION.......DEVANAS

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 021854
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
254 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
CHANGES TO FORECAST -- INCREASED RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ADJUSTED WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS SEVERAL PERIODS.

CURRENT SITUATION AND ANALYSIS -- MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES HAVE
PERSISTED ACROSS THE KEYS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS TODAY...BUT A
DOWNWARD TREND IN WIND SPEED HAS DEVELOPED IN SOME ZONES DURING THE
LAST FEW HOURS. ON OCCASION...SHORT-LIVED...LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE POPPED
UP. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN PRIMARILY RAIN-FREE ACROSS MOST OF
THE SERVICE AREA TODAY. CURRENTLY...AIR TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID
80S WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S. DEEP RIDGING AND
LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE STILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION.

PROGNOSTIC OVERVIEW -- CUBAN SEA-BREEZE SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY
WILL EMERGE NORTHWARD OVER THE STRAITS. HOWEVER...WEAKENING STEERING
FLOW AND DRY/STABLE AIR OVER SHOULD LIMIT NORTHWARD MIGRATION AND
SECOND-GENERATION CELLS. STILL...SOME STRATOCUMULUS AND ALTOCUMULUS
DECKS MAY DEVELOP AND REACH THE KEYS OVERNIGHT. WEATHER PREDICTION
MODEL TRENDS POINT TO INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A SIGNIFICANT SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH MIGRATING THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITHIN A FAST...
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT DURING THE WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME. THIS
EVOLUTION WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A LATE-SEASON COLD/COOL FRONT
REACHING THE FLORIDA KEYS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND LIKELY PRECEDED BY A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS...SHOWERS...AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THEREAFTER...A
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR MASS SHOULD FILTER INTO THE
FLORIDA KEYS FOR A FEW DAYS...BEFORE VEERING LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES
LEAD TO QUICK AIR MASS MODIFICATION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
TONIGHT. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC
WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. AS A
RESULT...LIGHTER BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ACROSS FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL
WATERS. A TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WEDNESDAY...
RESULTING IN INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
WEAK...LATE-SEASON FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. BREEZES ARE FORECAST
TO SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND FRESHEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 03/18Z...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH EYW
AND MTH. A FEW SHOWERS OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION MAY OCCASIONALLY
REACH THE VICINITY OF EACH TERMINAL. HOWEVER...THE CHANCE OF SUB-MVFR
CONDITIONS REMAINS TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN TAFS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  79  86  77  83 / 20 20 30 50
MARATHON  79  88  77  85 / 20 20 30 50
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KASPER
DATA COLLECTION.......DEVANAS

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 021423
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1023 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
CHANGES TO FORECAST -- NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

CURRENT SITUATION AND ANALYSIS -- MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
PERSISTS ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING. MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ARE SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR LIGHT
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...AND WE HAVE BEEN SEEING ISOLATED SHOWERS POP UP
ON DOPPLER RADAR SCANS ON OCCASION. CURRENTLY...AIR TEMPERATURES ARE
IN THE 80-85F RANGE WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S.

PROGNOSTIC OVERVIEW -- A WARM AND HUMID AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...AND ONLY A MINUTE CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN.
&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA UNTIL
SEAS SUBSIDE. WE HAVE RECEIVED REPORTS THIS MORNING OF SEAS OF 4-6
FEET IN A SOUTHEAST SWELL JUST OFF THE REEF SOUTH OF THE LOWER
FLORIDA KEYS...AND SEAS OF 2-4 FEET INSIDE THE REEF OFF THE MIDDLE
KEYS. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC WILL
WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. AS A
RESULT...LIGHTER BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ACROSS FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL
WATERS. A TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WEDNESDAY...
RESULTING IN INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
WEAK...LATE- SEASON FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS ON THURSDAY. BREEZES ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AND FRESHEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 03/15Z...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH EYW
AND MTH. A FEW SHOWERS OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION MAY OCCASIONALLY
REACH THE VICINITY OF EACH TERMINAL. HOWEVER...THE CHANCE OF SUB-MVFR
CONDITIONS REMAINS TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN TAFS.
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KASPER
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 020935
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
535 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS...DUE EAST
OF THE CAROLINA OUTERBANKS...AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE TIGHTENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE HAILED
OUT OF THE EAST SOUTHEAST...WITH OUR LAND OBSERVING STATIONS
REGISTERING NEAR 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20 MPH. WHILE WINDS OVER
THE MARINE DISTRICT HAVE SUSTAINED BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN HAWK
CHANNEL...THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND THE GULF WATERS NORTH OF THE
LOWER KEYS. ELSEWHERE...WINDS OVER THE BAY AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF
WATERS HAVE BEEN IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE.

A FEW LOW TOPPED SHOWERS HAVE TRAVERSED THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS
AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING...DELIVERING ONLY
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE BEING OBSERVED OVER THE
ISLAND CHAIN...WITH MORE CLOUD COVER ALONG THE UPPER KEYS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES HAVE
HELD STEADY IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES...WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S.


.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY AND IN TO TUESDAY AS A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH
DIGS SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES.
FORECASTS SOUNDINGS SHOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STRETCH FROM A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST DOWN ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA.
EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO REMAIN IN THE SLIGHT CATEGORY TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN INCREASING ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
SOUTH FLORIDA. THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO BE FAVORABLE FOR THE CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...AND VEERING WIND
PROFILES AS INDICATED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS.


&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE DECREASE THURSDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR WORKS
ITS WAY IN TO THE AREA ON THE HEELS OF A NORTHERLY BREEZE. A MUCH
MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE EVIDENT IN THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S...AND
TEMPERATURES HOVERING A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.


&&

.MARINE...FROM SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS...DUE EAST OF THE CAROLINA OUTERBANKS...WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT
EASTWARD TONIGHT IN TO TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...LIGHTER WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS OUR MARINE DISTRICT. A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE WINDS
WILL FRESHEN AND TURN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN TO
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE
DAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...BACK IN THE YEAR 1877...THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE
OF 63F WAS RECORDED. THIS IS ALSO THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER
TO BE RECORDED IN THE MONTH OF MAY. TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN KEY WEST
DATE BACK TO 1872.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  85  79  86  78 / -  10 10 10
MARATHON  88  79  88  78 / -  10 10 10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........FLING
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....11
DATA COLLECTION.......99

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 020935
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
535 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS...DUE EAST
OF THE CAROLINA OUTERBANKS...AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE TIGHTENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE HAILED
OUT OF THE EAST SOUTHEAST...WITH OUR LAND OBSERVING STATIONS
REGISTERING NEAR 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20 MPH. WHILE WINDS OVER
THE MARINE DISTRICT HAVE SUSTAINED BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN HAWK
CHANNEL...THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND THE GULF WATERS NORTH OF THE
LOWER KEYS. ELSEWHERE...WINDS OVER THE BAY AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF
WATERS HAVE BEEN IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE.

A FEW LOW TOPPED SHOWERS HAVE TRAVERSED THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS
AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING...DELIVERING ONLY
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE BEING OBSERVED OVER THE
ISLAND CHAIN...WITH MORE CLOUD COVER ALONG THE UPPER KEYS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES HAVE
HELD STEADY IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES...WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S.


.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY AND IN TO TUESDAY AS A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH
DIGS SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES.
FORECASTS SOUNDINGS SHOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STRETCH FROM A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST DOWN ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA.
EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO REMAIN IN THE SLIGHT CATEGORY TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN INCREASING ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
SOUTH FLORIDA. THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO BE FAVORABLE FOR THE CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...AND VEERING WIND
PROFILES AS INDICATED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS.


&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE DECREASE THURSDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR WORKS
ITS WAY IN TO THE AREA ON THE HEELS OF A NORTHERLY BREEZE. A MUCH
MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE EVIDENT IN THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S...AND
TEMPERATURES HOVERING A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.


&&

.MARINE...FROM SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS...DUE EAST OF THE CAROLINA OUTERBANKS...WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT
EASTWARD TONIGHT IN TO TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...LIGHTER WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS OUR MARINE DISTRICT. A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE WINDS
WILL FRESHEN AND TURN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN TO
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE
DAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...BACK IN THE YEAR 1877...THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE
OF 63F WAS RECORDED. THIS IS ALSO THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER
TO BE RECORDED IN THE MONTH OF MAY. TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN KEY WEST
DATE BACK TO 1872.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  85  79  86  78 / -  10 10 10
MARATHON  88  79  88  78 / -  10 10 10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........FLING
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....11
DATA COLLECTION.......99

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 020154
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
954 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
KBYX DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A VERY SMALL POCKET OF LIGHT SHOWERS ON
THE EASTERN EXTREME OF OUR ATLANTIC WATERS AT THIS HOUR.
OTHERWISE...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A GENTLE TO
MODERATE EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE KEYS ISLAND CHAIN.

THE LATE EVENING LOCAL SOUNDING SHOWS DRIER AIR HAS DIPPED EVEN
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS AND THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER WITHIN THE COLUMN IS NOW JUST UNDER AN INCH. THE
EAST BREEZES ARE GENTLE TO MODERATE THROUGH AT LEAST 10000 FEET AND
BACK ABOVE THAT...WITH ONLY A SHALLOW LAYER SURGING TO AROUND 20
KNOTS RIGHT AT 1000 FEET. RECENTLY SENT A ZONE UPDATE JUST TO MAKE A
MINOR WIND ADJUSTMENT FROM THE AFTERNOON ISSUANCE. AND...DID NOT PUT
IN A MENTION OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ANYWHERE EVEN THOUGH THE
HRRR SUGGESTS THE ECHOES OFF THE UPPER KEYS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
HOLD TOGETHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS IN THE VCNTY OF KEY LARGO.
WILL MONITOR OF COURSE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE NOT BEEN SURGING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SURROUNDING THE
FLORIDA KEYS THIS EVENING LIKE THEY DID LAST EVENING. BOTH THE ECMWF
AND GFS STILL SUGGEST THAT COULD BE THE CASE THROUGH ABOUT 08-09Z.
THAT IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR. SO...WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO THE INITIAL WIND CONDITIONS IN THE GRIDS
ELEMENTS BUT HOLD ON TO THE EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE FOR SMALL
CRAFT FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS OVERNIGHT. LIGHTER
BREEZES ARE EXPECTED EVERYWHERE LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY. EXPECT EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS UP TO ROUGHLY 3000 FEET.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........04
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....04
DATA COLLECTION.......DEVANAS

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 011859
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
259 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
CHANGES TO FORECAST -- INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AND ADDED THUNDER FOR
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...REDUCED AIR AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES
FOR THE THURSDAY-SATURDAY TIME FRAME.

CURRENT SITUATION AND ANALYSIS -- DESPITE MODERATE-FRESH BREEZES
PERSISTING THROUGH MIDDAY...AIR TEMPERATURES JUMPED INTO THE MID
80S...AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE UP OVER 70F. SKIES ARE MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH LARGE-SCALE RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE IN CONTROL. BREEZES
FINALLY HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISH WITHIN THE LAST HOUR OR TWO.

PROGNOSTIC OVERVIEW -- ONE MORE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND SURGE IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT BEFORE WINDS SLACKEN WITH THE ONSET OF A WEAKER
PRESSURE PATTERN. GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE EURO SOLUTION MID-WEEK
OF A STRONGER/LOWER LATITUDE TROUGH FOR A FEW RUNS NOW...SO WE HAVE
INDICATED A MORE INCLEMENT WEATHER PERIOD DURING THE WEDNESDAY-
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME...HIGHER POPS...SKY COVER...THUNDER.
&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...
HAWK CHANNEL...AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT. A
HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST
BREEZES. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL WEAKEN...WITH A WEAKER PRESSURE
PATTERN AND LIGHTER BREEZES DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AN APPROACHING TROUGH WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE
IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WEDNESDAY... WITH BREEZES
SHIFTING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND FRESHENING AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. &&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 02/18Z...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH EYW
AND MTH.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  78  85  78  86 / -  -  10 10
MARATHON  78  88  78  88 / -  -  10 10
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KASPER
DATA COLLECTION.......DEVANAS

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 011433
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1033 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
CHANGES TO FORECAST -- FIRST PERIOD WAS UPDATED FOR WINDS AND WAVE
HEIGHTS. STRONGER BREEZES HAVE PERSISTED THIS MORNING IN MANY
ZONES...AND MAY NOT DIMINISH MUCH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS A
WEAKENING ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CELL IS OFFSET BY LOWERING
PRESSURES OVER THE CENTRAL/WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS
WERE ALSO INTRODUCED TO MARINE ZONES ADJACENT TO MIDDLE AND UPPER
KEYS WHERE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP ALONG CLOUD LINES.

CURRENT SITUATION AND ANALYSIS -- AIR TEMPERATURES HAVE JUMPED INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 80S ALREADY WITH FULL MAY SUN AND STIFF SOUTHEAST
BREEZES. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST BELOW 70F SUGGEST
INCOMING AIR TRAJECTORIES STILL ARE ROOTED SOMEWHERE IN OLD
CONTINENTAL AIR. THE KEY WEST MORNING RAWINSONDE OBSERVATION
INDICATED AN ATMOSPHERE UNFAVORABLE FOR DEEP...MOIST CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WERE PRESENT IN THE
TURBULENT/WELL-MIXED LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET TO SUPPORT ISOLATED
SHALLOW CONVECTIVE CELLS. INDEED WE HAVE SEEN ISOLATED SHOWERS OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SERVICE AREA THIS
MORNING...MAINLY WHERE MESOSCALE CONVERGENCE HAS BEEN MAXIMIZED IN
TRANSIENT CUMULUS CLOUD LINES WITHIN LOW-LEVEL EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW.

PROGNOSTIC OVERVIEW -- WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL
NORTH ATLANTIC LIKELY WILL BE OFFSET BY LOWER PRESSURES OVER THE
WESTERN GULF BASIN...AND THE FRESH EAST-SOUTHEAST BREEZES LIKELY WILL
PERSIST INTO TONIGHT AS THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC GRADIENT FLOW WILL
REMAIN UNCHANGED.
&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IN HAWK CHANNEL AND THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN NORTH
ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINTAINING FRESH EAST TO
SOUTHEAST BREEZES. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL WEAKEN SLOWLY MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER...AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE NORTH
WILL RESULT IN A WEAKER PRESSURE PATTERN WITH DIMINISHING BREEZES ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 02/15Z...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH EYW
AND MTH.
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KASPER
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 010921
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
521 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...MODERATE TO FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES ARE BEING
MEASURED THIS MORNING ACROSS OUR LAND AND MARINE OBSERVING STATIONS.
A FEW QUICK HITTING SHOWERS HAVE EMERGED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS MORNING...DELIVERING LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION AS THEY MOVE OFF
TO THE WEST NORTHWEST. THE 00Z KKEY UPPER AIR SOUNDING MEASURED A
VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE ABOVE 900 MB OR ABOUT 3100 FEET...WITH A NOTABLE
3 DEGREE CELSIUS INVERSION JUST ABOVE THAT. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUE OF 0.80 INCHES MEASURED FALLS BELOW THE 10TH PERCENTILE FOR
EARLY MAY. TEMPERATURES HAVE HELD STEADY IN THE UPPER 70S THIS
MORNING...WHILE DEWPOINTS HAVE HOVERED IN THE LOWER 70S. SKIES REMAIN
PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN AS THE INCREASED EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES HAVE HELP GENERATE CUMULUS CLOUDS.


.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FEATURES
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. A BRIEF WIND SURGE IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT OWING TO MESOSCALE EFFECTS. WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE TO FURTHER SUBSIDE THROUGH
TUESDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FURTHER EASTWARD
OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR ZERO THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH JUST A SLIGHT INCREASE TO DIME POPS MONDAY NIGHT IN TO
TUESDAY HAS WINDS CLOCK AROUND TO THE SOUTH...TRANSPORTING A LITTLE
MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN TO THE AREA.


&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...A DEEP LAYER TROUGH WILL
MOVE IN TO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE
CENTER OVER THE GREAT LAKES DROPS IN TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. A
PIECE OF ENERGY WILL SWING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WEDNESDAY IN TO THURSDAY...AS A LATE SEASON COLD FRONT PRESSES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED
RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS SCENARIO THE LAST FEW
DAYS...BUT TIMING OF IMPACTS WILL HAVE TO BE FURTHER HONED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES
ARE CURRENTLY PROJECTED IN THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AS WE HEAD IN TO
NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.MARINE...FROM SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST WILL
RESULT IN MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES TODAY ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS. A BRIEF WIND SURGE WILL OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT...LIKELY
REQUIRING CAUTIONARY HEADLINES FOR PORTIONS OF THE MARINE DISTRICT.
THEREAFTER...THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MIGRATE OFF
TO THE EAST NORTHEAST...ALLOWING GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES TO
PERSIST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AT EYW AND MTH
TERMINALS. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY WILL
DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND PICK UP AGAIN TONIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...KEY WEST ENDED THE MONTH OF APRIL WITH AN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE OF 77.0 DEGREES...FOR WHICH THE NORMAL IS 76.4 DEGREES.
AND IT ACCUMULATED 1.40 INCHES OF RAINFALL...FOR WHICH THE NORMAL IS
2.05 INCHES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  85  78  85  78 / -  -  -  10
MARATHON  87  77  87  78 / -  -  -  10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........FLING
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 010127
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
930 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...700-200 MB...LATEST
AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY AS OF 900 PM...OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS DEPICT SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE GYRES OVER THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL CONUS...WITH UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. A 75 TO
100 KNOT SOUTHERN STREAM OF THE JET AT 250 MB EXTENDS FROM BAJA
CALIFORNIA EASTWARD TO ACROSS TEXAS THENCE NORTHEAST TO NEW ENGLAND.
WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THAT...SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS ARE BENEATH
THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF DEEP MIDDLE AND UPPER RIDGING CENTERED
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...WITH ONLY HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS IS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS...SURFACE TO 700
MB...LATEST IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH LATEST AVAILABLE LAND AND
MARINE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS AS OF 900 PM DETAIL A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN MISSOURI. CLOSER TO THE KEYS...SURFACE RIDGING IS PARKED
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. AS A RESULT THE 00Z SOUNDING AT KEY
WEST ILLUSTRATED GENTLE TO FRESH EAST WINDS UP TO 900 MB...THEN
GENTLE ABOVE THAT...WITH (PWAT AT .80 INCHES) AND AN INVERSION ABOVE
900 MB AND VERY DRY AIR ABOVE THAT.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 900 PM...SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE
ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS OWING MOSTLY TO CIRRUS. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE IN THE UPPER 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S. C-MAN STATIONS ALONG THE FLORIDA REEF ARE REGISTERING
EAST WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS...AND 15 KNOTS IN FLORIDA
BAY...WITH SMITH SHOAL RECORDING 15 TO 20 KNOTS AS WELL.

.SHORT TERM...OVERNIGHT...COMBINATION OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
ALONG AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT OVER THE MIDDLE SOUTH...WITH
SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL ALLOW FOR A SURGE
IN THE BREEZE FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS IS
INDICATED IN THE LATEST HRRR AND HINTED AT IN THE LAST FEW HOURS OF
SAND KEY OBS. WILL JUST DO A MINOR UPDATE IN BOTH ZONES AND COASTALS
IN INCLUDE BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLANDS...WITH 15 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.MARINE...OVERNIGHT...WILL SEE A GOOD PORTION OF THE STRAITS INCREASE
TO NEAR 20 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THE STRAITS THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
EVENING AND FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT WILL STILL
NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE REST OF THE MARINE DISTRICT
EXCEPT FLORIDA BAY AND THE SHALLOW WATERS INSIDE THE FIVE FATHOM
LINE. THEREAFTER...A LULL IS EXPECTED SUNDAY...BUT WILL PICK UP AGAIN
TO A LESSER EXTENT SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...OVERNIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AT THE
KEY WEST AND MARATHON INTL ISLAND TERMINALS. SURFACE WINDS WILL
AVERAGE FROM 100-110 DEGREES AOA 12-14 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KNOTS. EXPECT FEW-SCATTERED CLOUDS AOA FL030 WITH CIRRUS AOA FL200-
250.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SCA FOR GMZ052-055&GMZ072-075 THRU 10Z.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE....................FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS................FUTTERMAN
DATA COLLECTION/UPPER AIR........DEVANAS

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 301902
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
302 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS SPREADING SOUTHWARD OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST...REINFORCING A WEAKER RIDGE STRETCHING ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS IS RESULTING IN STRONGER WINDS TODAY...WITH
SUSTAINED BREEZES 10 TO 15 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH. STABLE
CONDITIONS CONTINUE...AND NO SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN DETECTED. SKIES
ARE PARTLY CLOUDY MOSTLY DUE TO PATCHES OF THICK CIRRUS RIDING
SOUTHEASTWARD AROUND A DIRTY RIDGE. DESPITE THE STRONGER
FLOW...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ABLE TO PUSH INTO THE MID 80S...AND
INCREASED MIXING HAS DROPPED DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 60S.

FORECAST - THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE FURTHER
SOUTHWARD...BOLSTERING FURTHER THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT. WITH THAT
SAID...WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD HOLD ABOUT WHERE THEY ARE AS WE LOSE DAY
TIME HEATING TO DRIVE DEEP MIXING. RAIN CHANCE WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE FORECAST AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
DRY AIR ALOFT AND A LOW INHIBITION LAYER. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE
A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER THAN OF LATE DUE TO THE INCREASED
VENTILATION...AND DAY TIME HIGHS NEAR NORMAL.

WINDS WILL BEGIN TRENDING DOWNWARDS SUNDAY AS THE RESPONSIBLE HIGH
BEGINS MIGRATING EASTWARD INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC AND A TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. ANOTHER SUBTLER SURGE IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO MESOSCALE EFFECTS...BUT WILL DROP OFF IN EARNEST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEAKENING FLOW WILL LET OVERNIGHT LOWS
SETTLE BACK INTO THE MID 70S...WITH DAY TIME HIGHS HOLDING IN THE MID
80S. MEANWHILE...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL FLATTEN OUT THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...RESULTING IN A GRADUAL EROSION OF OUR STABLE LAYER AND
A GRADUAL INCREASE OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

LONG RANGE GUIDANCE ARE CONSISTENT IN PUSHING A LATE SEASON TROUGH
THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME
FRAME. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN
UNCERTAINTY. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AFTER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
TUESDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL FIRM UP OUT OF SOUTHWEST AND GRADUALLY
VEER NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WITH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SURGES CLOSE TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. TEMPERATURES MAY TREND
DOWNWARDS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TOWARDS WEEKS END.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT FURTHER THIS EVENING AS AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING SOUTH OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO
REINFORCE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS FLORIDA. A CAUTION WILL BE RAISED FOR
MOST FLORIDA KEYS WATERS. WINDS WILL LULL SUNDAY AS SOUTH FLORIDA
HEATS UP...BUT SURGE AGAIN TO A LESSER EXTENT SUNDAY NIGHT. CAUTIONS
WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THE DEEP GULF WATERS AND FLORIDA STRAITS
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIVING WINDS WILL THEN
SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK...RESULTING IN WINDS RAPIDLY TRENDING DOWNWARDS...BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS AFTER MID
WEEK...RESULTING IN WINDS FIRMING UP OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...THEN
SHIFTING WEST TO NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST. THERE IS
SOME HINT THAT WINDS MAY HAVE TO BE PUSHED HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR AND MODERATE EASTERLY BREEZES WILL PERSIST AT THE EYW AND MTH
TERMINALS.

&&

.CLIMATE...THE HIGH TEMPERATURE YESTERDAY...FRIDAY..APRIL 29TH...WAS
85 DEGREES AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THIS IS THE FIRST
TIME A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 85 DEGREES OR WARMER HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN
2016...AND THE FIRST OCCURRENCE SINCE NOVEMBER THE 20TH 2015...SOME
161 DAYS AGO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  78  85  78  85 / -  -  10 10
MARATHON  78  87  77  87 / -  -  10 10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....CLR
DATA COLLECTION.......DEVANAS

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 301444
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1044 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - WINDS ARE PICKING UP AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH IS
REINFORCED BY ANOTHER HIGH MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST...AND PRESSURES FALL IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWLY CLIMBING THROUGH THE LOWER 80S WITH DEW
POINTS NEAR 70. STABLE CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH A SHARP INVERSION
AROUND 925 MB...AND LOTS OF DRY AIR ABOVE. SKIES ARE PARTLY
CLOUDY...MAINLY DUE TO PATCHES OF CIRRUS STREAMING SOUTHEASTWARD
AROUND AN UPPER RIDGE.

SHORT TERM - GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE GRADIENT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER
TONIGHT...WINDS SHOULD HOLD STEADY OVER MUCH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL EDGE UP INTO THE MID 80S WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING
NEAR 70. STABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE DUE TO THE PERSISTENT
INHIBITING LAYER BELOW 900 MB AND TONS OF DRY AIR ALOFT. WILL ONLY
UPDATE THE LOCAL FORECAST TO NUDGE UP CLOUD COVER.

&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL TREND UPWARDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH IS
REINFORCED...AND PRESSURES FALL IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
CAUTIONS WILL BE REQUIRED FOR MOST KEYS WATERS BEGINNING THIS
EVENING. A LULL IS EXPECTED SUNDAY...BUT WILL PICK UP AGAIN TO A
LESSER EXTENT SUNDAY NIGHT. ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE YESTERDAY...FRIDAY..APRIL 29TH...WAS
85 DEGREES AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THIS IS THE FIRST
TIME A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 85 DEGREES OR WARMER HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN
2016...AND THE FIRST OCCURRENCE SINCE NOVEMBER THE 20TH 2015...SOME
161 DAYS AGO.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....CLR
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 300849
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
449 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGING ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA HAS MAINTAINED A STEADY EAST WIND 10 TO 15 KNOTS...AND A
LITTLE STRONG ALONG THE LOWER KEYS REEF. A DENSER PATCH OF FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND LOWER KEYS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST WINDS THIN CIRRUS FROM NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO CONVECTION
FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WERE AROUND 77F WITH
DEWPOINTS AT OR BELOW 70F. NO SHOWERS WERE DETECTED THUS FAR THIS
MORNING OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...ALLOWING THE EAST WINDS TO INCREASE AND POSSIBLY BECOMING
LOCALLY BREEZY. MOISTURE REMAINS SCANT WITH DEEP LAPSE RATES
POOR...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS LIKELY LIMITED TO THE OPEN FLORIDA
STRAITS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY OWING TO VARIOUS SMALL CONVERGENT
BOUNDARIES AND INCREASED MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE WARM WATERS.

AN UPPER TROUGH PASSING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL HELP WEAKEN
AND SHIFT THE SURFACE RIDGE SOUTHWARD...WITH THE KEYS LIKELY NEAR A
COL POINT IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW LATER TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IS EXPECTED GENERALLY FROM
EARLY MONDAY ONWARD WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS DRIFTING ABOUT DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AND AFTERNOON CONVERGENCE SETTING UP OVER THE
ISLANDS.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL INDICATED IN GUIDANCE...ALBEIT WITH
VARYING TIME OF PASSAGE...THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IS AVAILABLE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER BRIEFLY
INCREASING ABOVE 1.5 INCHES...ALONG WITH A MINOR AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY. AT THIS TIME MADE A MINOR INCREASE IN POPS TO 20
PERCENT FOR THURSDAY ANDTHURSDAY NIGHT BUT LEFT OUT MENTION OF
THUNDER. WHILE NO STRONG NORTHWEST POST-BOUNDARY SURGE IS
EXPECTED...THERE IS STILL A POTENTIAL FOR DEWPOINTS NEAR 60F BY
FRIDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE REINFORCED OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH EAST WINDS INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
OVER MOST OF THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING. A SHORT-
DURATION DECREASE IN WINDS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE A
REPEAT WIND SURGE SUNDAY NIGHT. MORE PRONOUNCED LULLS ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND POSSIBLY
VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY WEDNEDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES OF 10 TO 12 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KEY
WEST AND MARATHON ISLAND TERMINALS SATURDAY. FEW CLOUDS WILL
REGISTER AOA 025...WITH SCT CLOUDS AT 250. WINDS WILL INCREASE
SATURDAY EVENING...BECOMING GUSTY...ALL THE WHILE REMAINING OUT OF
THE EAST SOUTHEAST. WITH RAIN CHANCES NEAR ZERO...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST.

&&

.CLIMATE...THE HIGH TEMPERATURE YESTERDAY...FRIDAY APRIL THE
29TH...WAS 85 DEGREES AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THIS IS
THE FIRST TIME A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 85 DEGREES OR WARMER HAS BEEN
OBSERVED IN 2016...AND THE FIRST OCCURRENCE SINCE NOVEMBER THE 20TH
2015...SOME 161 DAYS AGO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  84  78  85  78 / -  -  -  10
MARATHON  83  78  87  77 / -  -  -  10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........JR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....FLING
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 300248
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1048 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
AN ARC OF CIRRUS HAS BEEN STREAMING ACROSS THE KEYS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. LEGITIMATE RAIN ECHOES ON KBYX
DOPPLER RADAR ARE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND COUNTIES...WITH
BIRDS/BUGS ONCE AGAIN LIFTING TO THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
ISLAND CHAIN ARE IN THE UPPER 70S WITH A GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
BREEZE IN PLACE.

THE LATE EVENING LOCAL SOUNDING SHOWS SOMEWHAT DRIER HAS DESCENDED
INTO THE LOWEST LAYERS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS...STABILIZING THAT
LAYER EVEN MORE THAN LATE YESTERDAY EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS ENDED
RATHER QUICKLY ONCE THEY TRIED TO SEPARATE FROM CAPE EARLIER THIS
EVENING. A ZONE FORECAST UPDATE WAS SENT OUT A FEW HOURS AGO...BUT
THIS WAS ON ACCOUNT OF THE CIRRUS. CHANGED THE FIRST PERIOD TO PARTLY
CLOUDY. ALL OTHER SENSIBLE ELEMENTS WERE ADVERTISED WELL THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE AT LEAST GENTLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ACROSS
ALL WATERS SURROUNDING THE FLORIDA KEYS...MODERATING ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS BY VERY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE EVENING COASTAL
WATERS UPDATE WILL HAVE ONLY MINOR INITIAL WIND ADJUSTMENTS IN A
COUPLE OF THE MARINE GROUPINGS. NO CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE NEAR TERM...BUT COULD BE A POSSIBILITY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING THOUGH AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST IS
REINFORCED.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........04
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....04
DATA COLLECTION.......DEVANAS

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