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000
FXUS62 KKEY 041407
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1010 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB)...LATEST
AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF
900 AM CONTINUES TO DEPICT LARGE SCALE MIDDLE AND UPPER TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS...EXCEPT ACROSS
FLORIDA. THERE IS A STALWART MID AND UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE WESTERN CONUS...CENTERED NEAR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THAT...SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS REMAIN BENEATH
BUILDING MIDDLE AND UPPER RIDGING WITH ONE WEAKER CENTER NEAR ANDROS
ISLAND AND A STRONGER CENTER OUT NEAR 27 NORTH 70 WEST. A REGIONAL
SCALE UPPER TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS...SURFACE TO 700 MB...
A NEAR 1020 MB SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS POSITIONED FROM THE WEST
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WESTWARD TO ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. LATEST
UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMMS SAL (SAHARAN AIR LAYER DUST)
ANALYSIS ILLUSTRATED THE LEADING EDGE OF MUCH DRIER AIR IN PLACE
FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS EASTWARD TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE
12Z MORNING SOUNDING AT KEY WEST STILL ILLUSTRATED SOME MOISTURE IN
THE COLUMN BELOW 850 MB...WITH A GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW UP TO 850 BECOMING WEST UP TO 500...AND TOTAL
COLUMNAR WATER AT 1.75 INCHES.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 900 AM...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE
ISLANDS AND ADJOINING WATERS, TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 70S. ONLY VERY LOW TOPPED
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE DOTTING THE STRAITS AND THESE ARE VERY
ISOLATED GIVEN THE PREPONDERANCE OF MIDDLE LEVEL DRY AIR ATTM. C-MAN
STATIONS ARE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS...AND NEAR 10 KNOTS
IN FLORIDA BAY.

.FORECAST...REST OF THE DAY AND THIS EVENING...BEGINNING OF A PERIOD
OF ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH BLAZING SUN...OWING TO THE
PRESENCE OF A DEEP WELL CONCENTRATED SAL LAYER NOW MAKING INROADS
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...HAZY AT TIME CAN BE ANTICIPATED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER 90S AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S. THESE ARE
NEAR RECORD MAXIMUM. RECORD WARM MINIMA IS ALSO EXPERIENCED AT NIGHT
IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN AS WELL. ONLY SLIGHT CHANGE TO THE ONGOING
ZONE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE DECAPITATING INFLUENCE OF
DRIER AIR ADVECTION ABOVE 850 MB...THERE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TRIGGER
TO GET PARCEL TO LIGHTNING STAGES...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF DOWNWIND
OF THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA PENINSULA. OTHER MINOR TWEAK IS THE WIND
DIRECTION WHICH IS SOUTH OF EAST.

&&

.MARINE...GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. NO HEADLINES
OR ADVISORIES TODAY OR THIS EVENING. THE FOLLOWING IS A REMINDER FOR
RESIDENTS AND NONRESIDENTS ALIKE. GIVEN LACK OF CLOUD COVER..IN THIS
TYPE OF PATTERN...MARINERS WILL EXPERIENCE MAXIMUM INCIDENT SOLAR
RAYS AT KEYS LATITUDE AT THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. HENCE...IT IS
IMPERATIVE FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO APPLY A SUNSCREEN WITH AN
APPROPRIATE SPF ACROSS ALL EXPOSED SKIN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY OUT OF THE EAST SOUTHEAST.


&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/GRIDS.........FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS...........11
DATA COLLECTION/UPPER AIR.......VICKERY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 041407
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1010 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB)...LATEST
AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF
900 AM CONTINUES TO DEPICT LARGE SCALE MIDDLE AND UPPER TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS...EXCEPT ACROSS
FLORIDA. THERE IS A STALWART MID AND UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE WESTERN CONUS...CENTERED NEAR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THAT...SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS REMAIN BENEATH
BUILDING MIDDLE AND UPPER RIDGING WITH ONE WEAKER CENTER NEAR ANDROS
ISLAND AND A STRONGER CENTER OUT NEAR 27 NORTH 70 WEST. A REGIONAL
SCALE UPPER TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS...SURFACE TO 700 MB...
A NEAR 1020 MB SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS POSITIONED FROM THE WEST
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WESTWARD TO ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. LATEST
UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMMS SAL (SAHARAN AIR LAYER DUST)
ANALYSIS ILLUSTRATED THE LEADING EDGE OF MUCH DRIER AIR IN PLACE
FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS EASTWARD TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE
12Z MORNING SOUNDING AT KEY WEST STILL ILLUSTRATED SOME MOISTURE IN
THE COLUMN BELOW 850 MB...WITH A GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW UP TO 850 BECOMING WEST UP TO 500...AND TOTAL
COLUMNAR WATER AT 1.75 INCHES.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 900 AM...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE
ISLANDS AND ADJOINING WATERS, TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 70S. ONLY VERY LOW TOPPED
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE DOTTING THE STRAITS AND THESE ARE VERY
ISOLATED GIVEN THE PREPONDERANCE OF MIDDLE LEVEL DRY AIR ATTM. C-MAN
STATIONS ARE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS...AND NEAR 10 KNOTS
IN FLORIDA BAY.

.FORECAST...REST OF THE DAY AND THIS EVENING...BEGINNING OF A PERIOD
OF ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH BLAZING SUN...OWING TO THE
PRESENCE OF A DEEP WELL CONCENTRATED SAL LAYER NOW MAKING INROADS
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...HAZY AT TIME CAN BE ANTICIPATED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER 90S AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S. THESE ARE
NEAR RECORD MAXIMUM. RECORD WARM MINIMA IS ALSO EXPERIENCED AT NIGHT
IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN AS WELL. ONLY SLIGHT CHANGE TO THE ONGOING
ZONE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE DECAPITATING INFLUENCE OF
DRIER AIR ADVECTION ABOVE 850 MB...THERE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TRIGGER
TO GET PARCEL TO LIGHTNING STAGES...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF DOWNWIND
OF THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA PENINSULA. OTHER MINOR TWEAK IS THE WIND
DIRECTION WHICH IS SOUTH OF EAST.

&&

.MARINE...GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. NO HEADLINES
OR ADVISORIES TODAY OR THIS EVENING. THE FOLLOWING IS A REMINDER FOR
RESIDENTS AND NONRESIDENTS ALIKE. GIVEN LACK OF CLOUD COVER..IN THIS
TYPE OF PATTERN...MARINERS WILL EXPERIENCE MAXIMUM INCIDENT SOLAR
RAYS AT KEYS LATITUDE AT THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. HENCE...IT IS
IMPERATIVE FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO APPLY A SUNSCREEN WITH AN
APPROPRIATE SPF ACROSS ALL EXPOSED SKIN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY OUT OF THE EAST SOUTHEAST.


&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/GRIDS.........FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS...........11
DATA COLLECTION/UPPER AIR.......VICKERY

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 041407
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1010 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB)...LATEST
AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF
900 AM CONTINUES TO DEPICT LARGE SCALE MIDDLE AND UPPER TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS...EXCEPT ACROSS
FLORIDA. THERE IS A STALWART MID AND UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE WESTERN CONUS...CENTERED NEAR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THAT...SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS REMAIN BENEATH
BUILDING MIDDLE AND UPPER RIDGING WITH ONE WEAKER CENTER NEAR ANDROS
ISLAND AND A STRONGER CENTER OUT NEAR 27 NORTH 70 WEST. A REGIONAL
SCALE UPPER TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS...SURFACE TO 700 MB...
A NEAR 1020 MB SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS POSITIONED FROM THE WEST
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WESTWARD TO ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. LATEST
UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMMS SAL (SAHARAN AIR LAYER DUST)
ANALYSIS ILLUSTRATED THE LEADING EDGE OF MUCH DRIER AIR IN PLACE
FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS EASTWARD TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE
12Z MORNING SOUNDING AT KEY WEST STILL ILLUSTRATED SOME MOISTURE IN
THE COLUMN BELOW 850 MB...WITH A GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW UP TO 850 BECOMING WEST UP TO 500...AND TOTAL
COLUMNAR WATER AT 1.75 INCHES.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 900 AM...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE
ISLANDS AND ADJOINING WATERS, TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 70S. ONLY VERY LOW TOPPED
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE DOTTING THE STRAITS AND THESE ARE VERY
ISOLATED GIVEN THE PREPONDERANCE OF MIDDLE LEVEL DRY AIR ATTM. C-MAN
STATIONS ARE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS...AND NEAR 10 KNOTS
IN FLORIDA BAY.

.FORECAST...REST OF THE DAY AND THIS EVENING...BEGINNING OF A PERIOD
OF ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH BLAZING SUN...OWING TO THE
PRESENCE OF A DEEP WELL CONCENTRATED SAL LAYER NOW MAKING INROADS
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...HAZY AT TIME CAN BE ANTICIPATED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER 90S AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S. THESE ARE
NEAR RECORD MAXIMUM. RECORD WARM MINIMA IS ALSO EXPERIENCED AT NIGHT
IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN AS WELL. ONLY SLIGHT CHANGE TO THE ONGOING
ZONE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE DECAPITATING INFLUENCE OF
DRIER AIR ADVECTION ABOVE 850 MB...THERE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TRIGGER
TO GET PARCEL TO LIGHTNING STAGES...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF DOWNWIND
OF THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA PENINSULA. OTHER MINOR TWEAK IS THE WIND
DIRECTION WHICH IS SOUTH OF EAST.

&&

.MARINE...GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. NO HEADLINES
OR ADVISORIES TODAY OR THIS EVENING. THE FOLLOWING IS A REMINDER FOR
RESIDENTS AND NONRESIDENTS ALIKE. GIVEN LACK OF CLOUD COVER..IN THIS
TYPE OF PATTERN...MARINERS WILL EXPERIENCE MAXIMUM INCIDENT SOLAR
RAYS AT KEYS LATITUDE AT THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. HENCE...IT IS
IMPERATIVE FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO APPLY A SUNSCREEN WITH AN
APPROPRIATE SPF ACROSS ALL EXPOSED SKIN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY OUT OF THE EAST SOUTHEAST.


&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/GRIDS.........FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS...........11
DATA COLLECTION/UPPER AIR.......VICKERY

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST




000
FXUS62 KKEY 041407
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1010 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB)...LATEST
AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF
900 AM CONTINUES TO DEPICT LARGE SCALE MIDDLE AND UPPER TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS...EXCEPT ACROSS
FLORIDA. THERE IS A STALWART MID AND UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE WESTERN CONUS...CENTERED NEAR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THAT...SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS REMAIN BENEATH
BUILDING MIDDLE AND UPPER RIDGING WITH ONE WEAKER CENTER NEAR ANDROS
ISLAND AND A STRONGER CENTER OUT NEAR 27 NORTH 70 WEST. A REGIONAL
SCALE UPPER TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS...SURFACE TO 700 MB...
A NEAR 1020 MB SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS POSITIONED FROM THE WEST
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WESTWARD TO ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. LATEST
UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMMS SAL (SAHARAN AIR LAYER DUST)
ANALYSIS ILLUSTRATED THE LEADING EDGE OF MUCH DRIER AIR IN PLACE
FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS EASTWARD TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE
12Z MORNING SOUNDING AT KEY WEST STILL ILLUSTRATED SOME MOISTURE IN
THE COLUMN BELOW 850 MB...WITH A GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW UP TO 850 BECOMING WEST UP TO 500...AND TOTAL
COLUMNAR WATER AT 1.75 INCHES.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 900 AM...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE
ISLANDS AND ADJOINING WATERS, TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 70S. ONLY VERY LOW TOPPED
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE DOTTING THE STRAITS AND THESE ARE VERY
ISOLATED GIVEN THE PREPONDERANCE OF MIDDLE LEVEL DRY AIR ATTM. C-MAN
STATIONS ARE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS...AND NEAR 10 KNOTS
IN FLORIDA BAY.

.FORECAST...REST OF THE DAY AND THIS EVENING...BEGINNING OF A PERIOD
OF ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH BLAZING SUN...OWING TO THE
PRESENCE OF A DEEP WELL CONCENTRATED SAL LAYER NOW MAKING INROADS
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...HAZY AT TIME CAN BE ANTICIPATED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER 90S AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S. THESE ARE
NEAR RECORD MAXIMUM. RECORD WARM MINIMA IS ALSO EXPERIENCED AT NIGHT
IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN AS WELL. ONLY SLIGHT CHANGE TO THE ONGOING
ZONE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE DECAPITATING INFLUENCE OF
DRIER AIR ADVECTION ABOVE 850 MB...THERE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TRIGGER
TO GET PARCEL TO LIGHTNING STAGES...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF DOWNWIND
OF THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA PENINSULA. OTHER MINOR TWEAK IS THE WIND
DIRECTION WHICH IS SOUTH OF EAST.

&&

.MARINE...GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. NO HEADLINES
OR ADVISORIES TODAY OR THIS EVENING. THE FOLLOWING IS A REMINDER FOR
RESIDENTS AND NONRESIDENTS ALIKE. GIVEN LACK OF CLOUD COVER..IN THIS
TYPE OF PATTERN...MARINERS WILL EXPERIENCE MAXIMUM INCIDENT SOLAR
RAYS AT KEYS LATITUDE AT THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. HENCE...IT IS
IMPERATIVE FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO APPLY A SUNSCREEN WITH AN
APPROPRIATE SPF ACROSS ALL EXPOSED SKIN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY OUT OF THE EAST SOUTHEAST.


&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/GRIDS.........FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS...........11
DATA COLLECTION/UPPER AIR.......VICKERY

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 040810
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
410 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SINCE VERY
EARLY THIS MORNING...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE SPROUTED IN THE OFFSHORE GULF
AND ATLANTIC WATERS AWAY FROM THE KEYS ISLAND CHAIN. BUT THESE HAVE
REMAINED WEAK FOR THE MOST PART. UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH A
GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY BREEZE...CONDITIONS ARE WARM AND
HUMID...TYPICAL OF EARLY JULY.

BROAD HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC FOR THE BULK OF
THIS PERIOD. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL FEATURE A FEW LOW AMPLITUDE
TROUGHS OR DISCRETE GYRES MEANDERING IN THE SHORT TO MID TERMS OF THE
FORECAST...BUT SHOULD NOT ACCOUNT FOR MUCH OF A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. THE LARGE SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT A RELATIVELY
DRY SEGMENT EXTENDING FROM ALOFT INTO THE MID SECTIONS OF THE
TROPOSPHERE THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST...CARRIED THROUGH ON A
CONSISTENT AND DEEP EASTERLY FLOW. AS SUCH...IT IS HARD TO ARGUE WITH
THE LATEST AVAILABLE LOW MOS POP NUMBERS. SO I DID NOT. THESE
NUMBERS ARE IN LINE WITH WHAT WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING OVER THE PAST
FEW FORECAST CYCLES. THE RECENTLY DISTRIBUTED ZONE FORECAST CONTAINED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM AND
HUMID EVERY PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT GENTLE TO MODERATE MAINLY EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS ALL WATERS
SURROUNDING THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
GRAPHICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE SPEED
OSCILLATIONS IN THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS...PROBABLY THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BUT THIS WILL NOT BE
ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY CAUTIONARY HEADLINES FOR SMALL CRAFT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS. GENERALLY EAST WINDS OF 8 TO 12 KNOTS AND OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 18 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...THE DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY IN
KEY WEST DATES BACK TO 1957...WHEN A TEMPERATURE OF 95F WAS
RECORDED. THEN IN 2005...A DAILY RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE OF 83F
WAS OBSERVED. TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN KEY WEST HAVE BEEN KEPT SINCE
1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  91  84  90  83 / 10 10 10 10
MARATHON  93  84  91  84 / 10 10 10 10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........04
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST




000
FXUS62 KKEY 040810
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
410 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SINCE VERY
EARLY THIS MORNING...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE SPROUTED IN THE OFFSHORE GULF
AND ATLANTIC WATERS AWAY FROM THE KEYS ISLAND CHAIN. BUT THESE HAVE
REMAINED WEAK FOR THE MOST PART. UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH A
GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY BREEZE...CONDITIONS ARE WARM AND
HUMID...TYPICAL OF EARLY JULY.

BROAD HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC FOR THE BULK OF
THIS PERIOD. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL FEATURE A FEW LOW AMPLITUDE
TROUGHS OR DISCRETE GYRES MEANDERING IN THE SHORT TO MID TERMS OF THE
FORECAST...BUT SHOULD NOT ACCOUNT FOR MUCH OF A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. THE LARGE SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT A RELATIVELY
DRY SEGMENT EXTENDING FROM ALOFT INTO THE MID SECTIONS OF THE
TROPOSPHERE THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST...CARRIED THROUGH ON A
CONSISTENT AND DEEP EASTERLY FLOW. AS SUCH...IT IS HARD TO ARGUE WITH
THE LATEST AVAILABLE LOW MOS POP NUMBERS. SO I DID NOT. THESE
NUMBERS ARE IN LINE WITH WHAT WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING OVER THE PAST
FEW FORECAST CYCLES. THE RECENTLY DISTRIBUTED ZONE FORECAST CONTAINED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM AND
HUMID EVERY PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT GENTLE TO MODERATE MAINLY EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS ALL WATERS
SURROUNDING THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
GRAPHICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE SPEED
OSCILLATIONS IN THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS...PROBABLY THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BUT THIS WILL NOT BE
ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY CAUTIONARY HEADLINES FOR SMALL CRAFT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS. GENERALLY EAST WINDS OF 8 TO 12 KNOTS AND OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 18 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...THE DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY IN
KEY WEST DATES BACK TO 1957...WHEN A TEMPERATURE OF 95F WAS
RECORDED. THEN IN 2005...A DAILY RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE OF 83F
WAS OBSERVED. TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN KEY WEST HAVE BEEN KEPT SINCE
1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  91  84  90  83 / 10 10 10 10
MARATHON  93  84  91  84 / 10 10 10 10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........04
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 040232
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1032 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE STRETCHES WEST INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS CHAOTIC...POTMARKED BY UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGHS EAST OF THE BAHAMAS AND WEST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THIS EVENING`S SOUNDING SAMPLED THIS PATTERN...A SHALLOW
LAYER OF EASTERLIES UNDERNEATH SOUTHERLIES AT MID LEVELS AND
SOUTHEASTERLIES NEAR THE TOP OF THE TROPOSPHERE. THE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT WAS VERY UNSTABLE AT OBSERVATION TIME...AND MORE MOIST
COMPARED TO THIS MORNING. OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
HAS DECREASED IN COVERAGE AND SHIFTED WEST. IT APPEARS THE EXPECTED
DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS HAS REACHED THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA.
USING LOOPS FROM THE MIMIC TPW PRODUCT AND TIME OF ARRIVAL
TOOLS...THE CORE OF DRY AIR WILL SPREAD THROUGH THE KEYS BEFORE
SUNRISE. MODEL SLICES NEAR THE 850 MB LEVEL AGREE WITH THIS
ASSERTION. HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST ADVECTION IS BELOW THIS
LEVEL...EXPLAINING WHY THE DRY AIR HAS ARRIVED AHEAD OF PREDICTIONS.

TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 80S AND WINDS FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST
HAVE FREQUENTLY GUSTED TO 20 MPH. WE HAVE UPDATED THE DIGITAL AND
DERIVED PRODUCTS TO NUDGE UP WINDS AND TRIM PRECIPITATION COVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...
MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FLORIDA
KEYS COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...UNTIL 12Z/4TH...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE AT THE
KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS WITH MOSTLY EAST WINDS OF BETWEEN 8
AND 12 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 15 TO 18 KNOTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...IN 1901...THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 70F WAS
LAST SET IN KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS HAVE BEEN KEPT SINCE 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....APA

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 040232
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1032 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE STRETCHES WEST INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS CHAOTIC...POTMARKED BY UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGHS EAST OF THE BAHAMAS AND WEST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THIS EVENING`S SOUNDING SAMPLED THIS PATTERN...A SHALLOW
LAYER OF EASTERLIES UNDERNEATH SOUTHERLIES AT MID LEVELS AND
SOUTHEASTERLIES NEAR THE TOP OF THE TROPOSPHERE. THE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT WAS VERY UNSTABLE AT OBSERVATION TIME...AND MORE MOIST
COMPARED TO THIS MORNING. OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
HAS DECREASED IN COVERAGE AND SHIFTED WEST. IT APPEARS THE EXPECTED
DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS HAS REACHED THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA.
USING LOOPS FROM THE MIMIC TPW PRODUCT AND TIME OF ARRIVAL
TOOLS...THE CORE OF DRY AIR WILL SPREAD THROUGH THE KEYS BEFORE
SUNRISE. MODEL SLICES NEAR THE 850 MB LEVEL AGREE WITH THIS
ASSERTION. HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST ADVECTION IS BELOW THIS
LEVEL...EXPLAINING WHY THE DRY AIR HAS ARRIVED AHEAD OF PREDICTIONS.

TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 80S AND WINDS FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST
HAVE FREQUENTLY GUSTED TO 20 MPH. WE HAVE UPDATED THE DIGITAL AND
DERIVED PRODUCTS TO NUDGE UP WINDS AND TRIM PRECIPITATION COVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...
MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FLORIDA
KEYS COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...UNTIL 12Z/4TH...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE AT THE
KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS WITH MOSTLY EAST WINDS OF BETWEEN 8
AND 12 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 15 TO 18 KNOTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...IN 1901...THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 70F WAS
LAST SET IN KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS HAVE BEEN KEPT SINCE 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....APA

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 031832
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
230 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION....DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200
MB)...LATEST AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS AS OF 200 PM DETAILS A DEVELOPING SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGE SCALE LOW AMPLITUDE
TROUGHING ENCOMPASSING THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS. MID AND
UPPER RIDGING IS CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...WHERE
A RIDGE AXIS REMAINS ORIENTED FROM NEVADA TO SOUTH TEXAS. ACROSS THE
LOWER LATITUDES AND CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA...THERE IS A TROUGH
PRESENT FROM THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
TO THE EAST OF THAT EXISTS A REGIONAL SCALE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND THE UPPER
KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS...WHICH ARE BETWEEN THESE TWO
AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES THAT ARE UNDERNEATH RESULTANT WEAK UPPER
DIFFLUENT FLOW.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS...SURFACE TO 700
MB...AS OF 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON...A NEAR 1020 MB SURFACE RIDGE
REMAINS ORIENTED FROM THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO ACROSS THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE KEYS SERVICE AREA. THE MORNING SOUNDING WAS
MOIST WITH MODERATE TO GENTLE EAST SOUTHEASTERLIES...AND COLUMNAR
PWAT AT 1.86 INCHES.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 200 PM...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE
ISLANDS...WITH RADAR DETECTING JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND ADJOINING WATERS ATTM.
TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED 90 DEGREES OR HIGHER ACROSS ALL OF THE
ISLANDS WITH VERY UNCOMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 70S. C-MAN
STATIONS ARE EAST TO SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 KNOTS ALONG THE REEF AND IN
FLORIDA BAY. A SEEMINGLY SOUND REPORT OF NEAR 15 KNOTS WAS RECEIVED
FROM A VESSEL IN THE OUTER FLORIDA STRAITS.


.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...INCLUDING INDEPENDENCE
DAY...THE COMBINATION OF THE MID AND UPPER FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN LOWER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW UPSTREAM OF THE KEYS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. AT THE MOMENT COVERAGE IS ISOLATED...BUT THINK THAT
GIVEN INSTABILITY EXPECT DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
AFTER THAT...A EXPANSIVE AREA OF VERY DRY AIR ABOVE 850 MB WILL
ENCROACH UPON THE EAST OF THE KEYS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH STABILITY SHOULD INCREASE...WILL
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN ISOLATED POPS IN THE GRIDS...UNLESS MODEL
FORECAST CYCLES LOWER PWAT DOWN BELOW 1.25 INCHES. THE PROXIMITY OF
SURFACE RIDGING WILL ONLY ALLOW GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES ACROSS
THE WATERS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS WHERE
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH BREEZES MAY BE ENCOUNTERED...GIVEN
BROAD LOWER SURFACE PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...TYPICAL
AT THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. GIVEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND THESE
BREEZES...MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES AT THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND CHANCES FOR A
RECORD HERE AND THERE REMAIN GOOD.

EXTENDED...MONDAY THRU FRIDAY...NOT MUCH NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE
APPEARS IN ALL OF THE AVAILABLE LARGE SCALE MODELS DATA AT THIS
RANGE. ADDITIONAL SAHARAN DUST WILL BE TRANSPORTED UPSTREAM ABOVE
850...AND THIS IS VERY EVIDENT IN THE CIMMS SATELLITE PRESENTATION
WHICH SHOWS THAT PREPONDERANCE OF THIS AIRMASS AL THE WAY UPSTREAM
TO THE AFRICAN CONTINENT. GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE RIDGING...WILL
CONTINUE WITH SAME WINDS AND TEMPERATURE FORECAST ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS SATURDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHERE ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT WILL GENERATE MODERATE TO FRESH
PERIODS OF WIND VELOCITY. SCEC IS NOT ADVERTISED FOR THOSE 3
PERIODS AS WE HAVE 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY...BUT IT REMAINS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AT THE ISLAND
TERMINALS. THERE WILL BE ONLY A SLIM CHANCE FOR BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT
OF THE EAST SOUTHEAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  81  91  82  90 / 30 20 20 20
MARATHON  81  93  82  91 / 30 20 20 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....11
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 031832
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
230 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION....DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200
MB)...LATEST AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS AS OF 200 PM DETAILS A DEVELOPING SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGE SCALE LOW AMPLITUDE
TROUGHING ENCOMPASSING THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS. MID AND
UPPER RIDGING IS CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...WHERE
A RIDGE AXIS REMAINS ORIENTED FROM NEVADA TO SOUTH TEXAS. ACROSS THE
LOWER LATITUDES AND CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA...THERE IS A TROUGH
PRESENT FROM THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
TO THE EAST OF THAT EXISTS A REGIONAL SCALE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND THE UPPER
KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS...WHICH ARE BETWEEN THESE TWO
AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES THAT ARE UNDERNEATH RESULTANT WEAK UPPER
DIFFLUENT FLOW.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS...SURFACE TO 700
MB...AS OF 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON...A NEAR 1020 MB SURFACE RIDGE
REMAINS ORIENTED FROM THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO ACROSS THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE KEYS SERVICE AREA. THE MORNING SOUNDING WAS
MOIST WITH MODERATE TO GENTLE EAST SOUTHEASTERLIES...AND COLUMNAR
PWAT AT 1.86 INCHES.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 200 PM...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE
ISLANDS...WITH RADAR DETECTING JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND ADJOINING WATERS ATTM.
TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED 90 DEGREES OR HIGHER ACROSS ALL OF THE
ISLANDS WITH VERY UNCOMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 70S. C-MAN
STATIONS ARE EAST TO SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 KNOTS ALONG THE REEF AND IN
FLORIDA BAY. A SEEMINGLY SOUND REPORT OF NEAR 15 KNOTS WAS RECEIVED
FROM A VESSEL IN THE OUTER FLORIDA STRAITS.


.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...INCLUDING INDEPENDENCE
DAY...THE COMBINATION OF THE MID AND UPPER FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN LOWER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW UPSTREAM OF THE KEYS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. AT THE MOMENT COVERAGE IS ISOLATED...BUT THINK THAT
GIVEN INSTABILITY EXPECT DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
AFTER THAT...A EXPANSIVE AREA OF VERY DRY AIR ABOVE 850 MB WILL
ENCROACH UPON THE EAST OF THE KEYS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH STABILITY SHOULD INCREASE...WILL
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN ISOLATED POPS IN THE GRIDS...UNLESS MODEL
FORECAST CYCLES LOWER PWAT DOWN BELOW 1.25 INCHES. THE PROXIMITY OF
SURFACE RIDGING WILL ONLY ALLOW GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES ACROSS
THE WATERS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS WHERE
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH BREEZES MAY BE ENCOUNTERED...GIVEN
BROAD LOWER SURFACE PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...TYPICAL
AT THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. GIVEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND THESE
BREEZES...MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES AT THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND CHANCES FOR A
RECORD HERE AND THERE REMAIN GOOD.

EXTENDED...MONDAY THRU FRIDAY...NOT MUCH NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE
APPEARS IN ALL OF THE AVAILABLE LARGE SCALE MODELS DATA AT THIS
RANGE. ADDITIONAL SAHARAN DUST WILL BE TRANSPORTED UPSTREAM ABOVE
850...AND THIS IS VERY EVIDENT IN THE CIMMS SATELLITE PRESENTATION
WHICH SHOWS THAT PREPONDERANCE OF THIS AIRMASS AL THE WAY UPSTREAM
TO THE AFRICAN CONTINENT. GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE RIDGING...WILL
CONTINUE WITH SAME WINDS AND TEMPERATURE FORECAST ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS SATURDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHERE ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT WILL GENERATE MODERATE TO FRESH
PERIODS OF WIND VELOCITY. SCEC IS NOT ADVERTISED FOR THOSE 3
PERIODS AS WE HAVE 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY...BUT IT REMAINS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AT THE ISLAND
TERMINALS. THERE WILL BE ONLY A SLIM CHANCE FOR BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT
OF THE EAST SOUTHEAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  81  91  82  90 / 30 20 20 20
MARATHON  81  93  82  91 / 30 20 20 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....11
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 031832
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
230 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION....DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200
MB)...LATEST AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS AS OF 200 PM DETAILS A DEVELOPING SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGE SCALE LOW AMPLITUDE
TROUGHING ENCOMPASSING THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS. MID AND
UPPER RIDGING IS CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...WHERE
A RIDGE AXIS REMAINS ORIENTED FROM NEVADA TO SOUTH TEXAS. ACROSS THE
LOWER LATITUDES AND CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA...THERE IS A TROUGH
PRESENT FROM THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
TO THE EAST OF THAT EXISTS A REGIONAL SCALE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND THE UPPER
KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS...WHICH ARE BETWEEN THESE TWO
AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES THAT ARE UNDERNEATH RESULTANT WEAK UPPER
DIFFLUENT FLOW.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS...SURFACE TO 700
MB...AS OF 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON...A NEAR 1020 MB SURFACE RIDGE
REMAINS ORIENTED FROM THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO ACROSS THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE KEYS SERVICE AREA. THE MORNING SOUNDING WAS
MOIST WITH MODERATE TO GENTLE EAST SOUTHEASTERLIES...AND COLUMNAR
PWAT AT 1.86 INCHES.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 200 PM...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE
ISLANDS...WITH RADAR DETECTING JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND ADJOINING WATERS ATTM.
TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED 90 DEGREES OR HIGHER ACROSS ALL OF THE
ISLANDS WITH VERY UNCOMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 70S. C-MAN
STATIONS ARE EAST TO SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 KNOTS ALONG THE REEF AND IN
FLORIDA BAY. A SEEMINGLY SOUND REPORT OF NEAR 15 KNOTS WAS RECEIVED
FROM A VESSEL IN THE OUTER FLORIDA STRAITS.


.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...INCLUDING INDEPENDENCE
DAY...THE COMBINATION OF THE MID AND UPPER FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN LOWER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW UPSTREAM OF THE KEYS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. AT THE MOMENT COVERAGE IS ISOLATED...BUT THINK THAT
GIVEN INSTABILITY EXPECT DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
AFTER THAT...A EXPANSIVE AREA OF VERY DRY AIR ABOVE 850 MB WILL
ENCROACH UPON THE EAST OF THE KEYS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH STABILITY SHOULD INCREASE...WILL
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN ISOLATED POPS IN THE GRIDS...UNLESS MODEL
FORECAST CYCLES LOWER PWAT DOWN BELOW 1.25 INCHES. THE PROXIMITY OF
SURFACE RIDGING WILL ONLY ALLOW GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES ACROSS
THE WATERS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS WHERE
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH BREEZES MAY BE ENCOUNTERED...GIVEN
BROAD LOWER SURFACE PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...TYPICAL
AT THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. GIVEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND THESE
BREEZES...MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES AT THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND CHANCES FOR A
RECORD HERE AND THERE REMAIN GOOD.

EXTENDED...MONDAY THRU FRIDAY...NOT MUCH NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE
APPEARS IN ALL OF THE AVAILABLE LARGE SCALE MODELS DATA AT THIS
RANGE. ADDITIONAL SAHARAN DUST WILL BE TRANSPORTED UPSTREAM ABOVE
850...AND THIS IS VERY EVIDENT IN THE CIMMS SATELLITE PRESENTATION
WHICH SHOWS THAT PREPONDERANCE OF THIS AIRMASS AL THE WAY UPSTREAM
TO THE AFRICAN CONTINENT. GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE RIDGING...WILL
CONTINUE WITH SAME WINDS AND TEMPERATURE FORECAST ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS SATURDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHERE ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT WILL GENERATE MODERATE TO FRESH
PERIODS OF WIND VELOCITY. SCEC IS NOT ADVERTISED FOR THOSE 3
PERIODS AS WE HAVE 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY...BUT IT REMAINS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AT THE ISLAND
TERMINALS. THERE WILL BE ONLY A SLIM CHANCE FOR BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT
OF THE EAST SOUTHEAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  81  91  82  90 / 30 20 20 20
MARATHON  81  93  82  91 / 30 20 20 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....11
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST




000
FXUS62 KKEY 031832
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
230 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION....DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200
MB)...LATEST AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS AS OF 200 PM DETAILS A DEVELOPING SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGE SCALE LOW AMPLITUDE
TROUGHING ENCOMPASSING THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS. MID AND
UPPER RIDGING IS CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...WHERE
A RIDGE AXIS REMAINS ORIENTED FROM NEVADA TO SOUTH TEXAS. ACROSS THE
LOWER LATITUDES AND CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA...THERE IS A TROUGH
PRESENT FROM THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
TO THE EAST OF THAT EXISTS A REGIONAL SCALE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND THE UPPER
KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS...WHICH ARE BETWEEN THESE TWO
AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES THAT ARE UNDERNEATH RESULTANT WEAK UPPER
DIFFLUENT FLOW.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS...SURFACE TO 700
MB...AS OF 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON...A NEAR 1020 MB SURFACE RIDGE
REMAINS ORIENTED FROM THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO ACROSS THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE KEYS SERVICE AREA. THE MORNING SOUNDING WAS
MOIST WITH MODERATE TO GENTLE EAST SOUTHEASTERLIES...AND COLUMNAR
PWAT AT 1.86 INCHES.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 200 PM...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE
ISLANDS...WITH RADAR DETECTING JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND ADJOINING WATERS ATTM.
TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED 90 DEGREES OR HIGHER ACROSS ALL OF THE
ISLANDS WITH VERY UNCOMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 70S. C-MAN
STATIONS ARE EAST TO SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 KNOTS ALONG THE REEF AND IN
FLORIDA BAY. A SEEMINGLY SOUND REPORT OF NEAR 15 KNOTS WAS RECEIVED
FROM A VESSEL IN THE OUTER FLORIDA STRAITS.


.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...INCLUDING INDEPENDENCE
DAY...THE COMBINATION OF THE MID AND UPPER FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN LOWER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW UPSTREAM OF THE KEYS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. AT THE MOMENT COVERAGE IS ISOLATED...BUT THINK THAT
GIVEN INSTABILITY EXPECT DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
AFTER THAT...A EXPANSIVE AREA OF VERY DRY AIR ABOVE 850 MB WILL
ENCROACH UPON THE EAST OF THE KEYS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH STABILITY SHOULD INCREASE...WILL
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN ISOLATED POPS IN THE GRIDS...UNLESS MODEL
FORECAST CYCLES LOWER PWAT DOWN BELOW 1.25 INCHES. THE PROXIMITY OF
SURFACE RIDGING WILL ONLY ALLOW GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES ACROSS
THE WATERS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS WHERE
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH BREEZES MAY BE ENCOUNTERED...GIVEN
BROAD LOWER SURFACE PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...TYPICAL
AT THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. GIVEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND THESE
BREEZES...MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES AT THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND CHANCES FOR A
RECORD HERE AND THERE REMAIN GOOD.

EXTENDED...MONDAY THRU FRIDAY...NOT MUCH NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE
APPEARS IN ALL OF THE AVAILABLE LARGE SCALE MODELS DATA AT THIS
RANGE. ADDITIONAL SAHARAN DUST WILL BE TRANSPORTED UPSTREAM ABOVE
850...AND THIS IS VERY EVIDENT IN THE CIMMS SATELLITE PRESENTATION
WHICH SHOWS THAT PREPONDERANCE OF THIS AIRMASS AL THE WAY UPSTREAM
TO THE AFRICAN CONTINENT. GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE RIDGING...WILL
CONTINUE WITH SAME WINDS AND TEMPERATURE FORECAST ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS SATURDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHERE ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT WILL GENERATE MODERATE TO FRESH
PERIODS OF WIND VELOCITY. SCEC IS NOT ADVERTISED FOR THOSE 3
PERIODS AS WE HAVE 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY...BUT IT REMAINS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AT THE ISLAND
TERMINALS. THERE WILL BE ONLY A SLIM CHANCE FOR BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT
OF THE EAST SOUTHEAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  81  91  82  90 / 30 20 20 20
MARATHON  81  93  82  91 / 30 20 20 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....11
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 031404
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1000 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB)...LATEST
AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF
900 AM IS SIMILAR TO 12 HOURS PRIOR...AND DEPICTS LOW AMPLITUDE
TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. A NEGATIVELY TILTED MID
AND UPPER WARM CORE RIDGE IS ORIENTED FROM NEVADA TO NEAR EL PASO
TEXAS. ACROSS THE LOWER LATITUDES AND CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA KEYS...A
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AXIS. AT 250 MB...IS LOCATED FROM
WEST OF DRY TORTUGAS SOUTHWEST TO NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH
THE REGIONAL SCALE CENTER OF A MID AND UPPER RIDGE NEAR ABACO
ISLAND.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS...SURFACE TO 700 MB...
A NEAR 1020 MB SURFACE RIDGE IS POSITIONED FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA EAST
NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR 30 NORTH 60 WEST. LOCALLY...THE KEYS ARE
BENEATH AN IMPULSE AROUND 700 MB.  ALTHOUGH CIMMS ANALYSIS
ILLUSTRATES SOME SAL (SAHARAN AIR LAYER DUST)...DEEPER MOISTURE IS
EVIDENT TODAY THAN AS OF LATE BUT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MUCH
HIGHER CONCENTRATION DUST AND LOW MOISTURE IS PRESENTLY ENCROACHING
UPON THE LONGITUDE OF ABACO ISLAND SOUTH TO ANDROS THENCE ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL CUBA.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 900 AM...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE
ISLANDS AND IMMEDIATE ADJOINING WATERS...BUT KEY WEST RADAR AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY DETECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DOTTING
THE FLORIDA STRAITS...WITH A FEW THAT HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE UPPER
KEYS...AND ONE WHICH MAY OR MAY NOT SURVIVE ITS SHORT FROM NEAR THE
REEF ON A SHORT TRANSIT TOWARDS THE LOWER KEYS ATTM. TEMPERATURES
HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE ISLANDS WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. C-MAN STATIONS ALONG THE REEF ARE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 15 KNOTS.

.FORECAST...REST OF THE DAY AND THIS EVENING. AN IMPULSE
ENCOMPASSING THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BY THIS EVENING. LATEST AVAILABLE ECMWF...AND
GFS MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE COLUMNAR PWAT REMAINING
ABOVE 1.75 INCHES THROUGH THIS EVENING. SYNOPTICALLY...UPPER LEVEL
WEAK DIFFLUENCE AND SLIGHTLY ELEVATED CONFLUENT FLOW SUPPORTS MIDDLE
OF THE ROAD...40%...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
ISLANDS AND ADJOINING WATERS...ALTHOUGH AT PRESENT TIME THE COVERAGE
IS ISOLATED. AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH JULY HEATING...WOULD
EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ALSO...SOME DRYER AIR REMAINS IN THE MID-LEVELS...WHICH MEANS THAT
THERE IS SOME DOWNWARD MOMEMTUM AVAILABLE FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS
WITHIN SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...EXCEPT GENTLE TO MODERATE
ACROSS THE OUTER FLORIDA STRAITS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE EVENING...SO
GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THAT SAID...HOWEVER...A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN SOME GUSTY WINDS AROUND 30
KNOTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. KEEP THE WEATHER RADIO HANDY SO THAT YOU CAN AVOID THE
POSSIBILITY OF ENCOUNTERING A VERY BRIEF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CONTAINING A GUST OF WIND EXCEEDING 34 KNOTS. IN THIS EXCEPTIONAL
CASE WE WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL MARINE WARNING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AT THE ISLAND
TERMINALS. THERE WILL BE ONLY A SLIM CHANCE FOR BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT
OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST.


&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/GRIDS.........FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS...........11
DATA COLLECTION/UPPER AIR.......VICKERY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 031404
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1000 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB)...LATEST
AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF
900 AM IS SIMILAR TO 12 HOURS PRIOR...AND DEPICTS LOW AMPLITUDE
TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. A NEGATIVELY TILTED MID
AND UPPER WARM CORE RIDGE IS ORIENTED FROM NEVADA TO NEAR EL PASO
TEXAS. ACROSS THE LOWER LATITUDES AND CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA KEYS...A
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AXIS. AT 250 MB...IS LOCATED FROM
WEST OF DRY TORTUGAS SOUTHWEST TO NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH
THE REGIONAL SCALE CENTER OF A MID AND UPPER RIDGE NEAR ABACO
ISLAND.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS...SURFACE TO 700 MB...
A NEAR 1020 MB SURFACE RIDGE IS POSITIONED FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA EAST
NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR 30 NORTH 60 WEST. LOCALLY...THE KEYS ARE
BENEATH AN IMPULSE AROUND 700 MB.  ALTHOUGH CIMMS ANALYSIS
ILLUSTRATES SOME SAL (SAHARAN AIR LAYER DUST)...DEEPER MOISTURE IS
EVIDENT TODAY THAN AS OF LATE BUT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MUCH
HIGHER CONCENTRATION DUST AND LOW MOISTURE IS PRESENTLY ENCROACHING
UPON THE LONGITUDE OF ABACO ISLAND SOUTH TO ANDROS THENCE ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL CUBA.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 900 AM...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE
ISLANDS AND IMMEDIATE ADJOINING WATERS...BUT KEY WEST RADAR AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY DETECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DOTTING
THE FLORIDA STRAITS...WITH A FEW THAT HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE UPPER
KEYS...AND ONE WHICH MAY OR MAY NOT SURVIVE ITS SHORT FROM NEAR THE
REEF ON A SHORT TRANSIT TOWARDS THE LOWER KEYS ATTM. TEMPERATURES
HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE ISLANDS WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. C-MAN STATIONS ALONG THE REEF ARE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 15 KNOTS.

.FORECAST...REST OF THE DAY AND THIS EVENING. AN IMPULSE
ENCOMPASSING THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BY THIS EVENING. LATEST AVAILABLE ECMWF...AND
GFS MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE COLUMNAR PWAT REMAINING
ABOVE 1.75 INCHES THROUGH THIS EVENING. SYNOPTICALLY...UPPER LEVEL
WEAK DIFFLUENCE AND SLIGHTLY ELEVATED CONFLUENT FLOW SUPPORTS MIDDLE
OF THE ROAD...40%...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
ISLANDS AND ADJOINING WATERS...ALTHOUGH AT PRESENT TIME THE COVERAGE
IS ISOLATED. AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH JULY HEATING...WOULD
EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ALSO...SOME DRYER AIR REMAINS IN THE MID-LEVELS...WHICH MEANS THAT
THERE IS SOME DOWNWARD MOMEMTUM AVAILABLE FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS
WITHIN SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...EXCEPT GENTLE TO MODERATE
ACROSS THE OUTER FLORIDA STRAITS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE EVENING...SO
GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THAT SAID...HOWEVER...A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN SOME GUSTY WINDS AROUND 30
KNOTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. KEEP THE WEATHER RADIO HANDY SO THAT YOU CAN AVOID THE
POSSIBILITY OF ENCOUNTERING A VERY BRIEF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CONTAINING A GUST OF WIND EXCEEDING 34 KNOTS. IN THIS EXCEPTIONAL
CASE WE WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL MARINE WARNING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AT THE ISLAND
TERMINALS. THERE WILL BE ONLY A SLIM CHANCE FOR BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT
OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST.


&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/GRIDS.........FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS...........11
DATA COLLECTION/UPPER AIR.......VICKERY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 030921
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
521 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OBSERVED OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN GULF WATERS AROUND MIDNIGHT AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS
EARLIER THIS MORNING. SIMILAR ACTIVITY OF ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR TODAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS AND IN SOME INSTANCES
AFFECT THE ISLAND CHAIN. REGARDLESS OF THE OCCURRENCE OF THESE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE KEYS...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN REACH THE
LOW 90S TODAY...AS IT HAS HAPPENED IN THE LAST FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES
THIS MORNING HAS REMAINED BETWEEN 83 AND 84 DEGREES.

.FORECAST...TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER-MIMIC ANALYSIS FROM CIMSS SHOWED AN
AREA OF MOISTURE REACHING THE FLORIDA KEYS EARLIER THIS MORNING...AS
IT HAS BEEN INDICATED BY MODELS DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS. THIS BROAD
AREA OF MOISTURE...IN COMBINATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE
AREA WILL CONTRIBUTE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RIGHT BEHIND THIS AREA OF MOISTURE...A
GOOD CONCENTRATION OF DUST/DRIER AIR (SAL) IS MOVING WESTWARD AND
WILL REACH THE KEYS LATER TONIGHT...REMAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...HOWEVER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE OCCURRENCE OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER PULSE OF
DUST/DRY AIR...PORTRAYED ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND NAVY AEROSOL
MODELS...COULD REACH THE KEYS ON TUESDAY...REALLY LIMITING THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THIS WEEKEND
AND NEXT WEEK.


&&

.MARINE...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN EXTENDING ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS RANGING FROM 10 TO 15
KNOTS ACROSS THE STRAITS...AND AROUND 10 KNOTS ELSEWHERE ARE EXPECTED
TODAY. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA
KEYS COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ATLANTIC
WATERS MAY BRING MVFR OR EVEN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS TO THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING...IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH.
WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY ACCORDING TO KBYX RADAR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO...BUT THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR THESE AREAS TO WEAKEN AS THEY
APPROACH THE ISLAND CHAIN. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH
TERMINALS THROUGH THE BULK OF TODAY AND THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST AROUND 10 KNOTS.

&&

.CLIMATE... ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1986...2.01
INCHES OF RAIN WAS RECORDED IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RAINFALL
RECORD FOR JULY THIRD IN KEY WEST. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR KEY WEST
DATE BACK TO 1871.


&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....04


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000
FXUS62 KKEY 030921
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
521 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OBSERVED OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN GULF WATERS AROUND MIDNIGHT AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS
EARLIER THIS MORNING. SIMILAR ACTIVITY OF ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR TODAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS AND IN SOME INSTANCES
AFFECT THE ISLAND CHAIN. REGARDLESS OF THE OCCURRENCE OF THESE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE KEYS...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN REACH THE
LOW 90S TODAY...AS IT HAS HAPPENED IN THE LAST FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES
THIS MORNING HAS REMAINED BETWEEN 83 AND 84 DEGREES.

.FORECAST...TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER-MIMIC ANALYSIS FROM CIMSS SHOWED AN
AREA OF MOISTURE REACHING THE FLORIDA KEYS EARLIER THIS MORNING...AS
IT HAS BEEN INDICATED BY MODELS DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS. THIS BROAD
AREA OF MOISTURE...IN COMBINATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE
AREA WILL CONTRIBUTE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RIGHT BEHIND THIS AREA OF MOISTURE...A
GOOD CONCENTRATION OF DUST/DRIER AIR (SAL) IS MOVING WESTWARD AND
WILL REACH THE KEYS LATER TONIGHT...REMAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...HOWEVER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE OCCURRENCE OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER PULSE OF
DUST/DRY AIR...PORTRAYED ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND NAVY AEROSOL
MODELS...COULD REACH THE KEYS ON TUESDAY...REALLY LIMITING THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THIS WEEKEND
AND NEXT WEEK.


&&

.MARINE...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN EXTENDING ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS RANGING FROM 10 TO 15
KNOTS ACROSS THE STRAITS...AND AROUND 10 KNOTS ELSEWHERE ARE EXPECTED
TODAY. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA
KEYS COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ATLANTIC
WATERS MAY BRING MVFR OR EVEN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS TO THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING...IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH.
WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY ACCORDING TO KBYX RADAR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO...BUT THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR THESE AREAS TO WEAKEN AS THEY
APPROACH THE ISLAND CHAIN. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH
TERMINALS THROUGH THE BULK OF TODAY AND THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST AROUND 10 KNOTS.

&&

.CLIMATE... ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1986...2.01
INCHES OF RAIN WAS RECORDED IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RAINFALL
RECORD FOR JULY THIRD IN KEY WEST. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR KEY WEST
DATE BACK TO 1871.


&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....04


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000
FXUS62 KKEY 030232
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1032 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...THERE IS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. ACCORDING TO THE VORTICITY PRODUCTS
FROM CIMSS...AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. A WEAK CYCLONIC ENVELOPE CAN ALSO BE INFERRED
FROM THE STORM MOTION. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST
IN THE EASTERN STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHILE STORMS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
PLUNGE TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS EVENING`S 00Z RAOB OBSERVATION SAMPLED
DEEP EASTERLIES...AND A LITTLE LESS DRY AIR COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW
DAYS. TEMPERATURES ARE SULTRY ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN...MID 80S. THE
LATEST SCANS FROM THE KBYX RADAR INDICATE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STRAITS. THIS WEAK UNDULATION WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE KEYS OVERNIGHT. THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND
FEATURES RAIN CHANCES AT 30%...ABOVE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL OUTPUT.

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...UNTIL 12Z/3RD...THE BEST CHANCE FOR A MVFR ENCOUNTER OR
TWO WILL BE BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z...OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS. OUTSIDE OF ANY
POSSIBLE SHOWERS OR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM...MOSTLY EAST WINDS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN 8 AND 12 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO BETWEEN 15 AND
18 KNOTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...1935...4.12 INCHES
OF RAIN FELL IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD RAINFALL FOR KEY
WEST ON JUNE 2ND...WHICH STANDS 80 YEARS LATER. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR
KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....APA

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 030232
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1032 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...THERE IS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. ACCORDING TO THE VORTICITY PRODUCTS
FROM CIMSS...AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. A WEAK CYCLONIC ENVELOPE CAN ALSO BE INFERRED
FROM THE STORM MOTION. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST
IN THE EASTERN STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHILE STORMS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
PLUNGE TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS EVENING`S 00Z RAOB OBSERVATION SAMPLED
DEEP EASTERLIES...AND A LITTLE LESS DRY AIR COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW
DAYS. TEMPERATURES ARE SULTRY ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN...MID 80S. THE
LATEST SCANS FROM THE KBYX RADAR INDICATE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STRAITS. THIS WEAK UNDULATION WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE KEYS OVERNIGHT. THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND
FEATURES RAIN CHANCES AT 30%...ABOVE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL OUTPUT.

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...UNTIL 12Z/3RD...THE BEST CHANCE FOR A MVFR ENCOUNTER OR
TWO WILL BE BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z...OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS. OUTSIDE OF ANY
POSSIBLE SHOWERS OR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM...MOSTLY EAST WINDS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN 8 AND 12 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO BETWEEN 15 AND
18 KNOTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...1935...4.12 INCHES
OF RAIN FELL IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD RAINFALL FOR KEY
WEST ON JUNE 2ND...WHICH STANDS 80 YEARS LATER. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR
KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....APA

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 021839
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
245 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB)...LATEST
AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF
200 PM CONTINUES TO SHOW LOW AMPLITUDE LARGE SCALE TROUGHING ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS...AND LARGE SCALE RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS...WITH THE CENTER OF THIS WARM CORE SYNOPTIC SCALE ANTICYCLONE
LOCATED NEAR THE 4 CORNERS REGION. ACROSS THE LOWER LATITUDES AND
CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA KEYS...THE AXIS OF AN UPPER TROUGH...AT 250 MB
IS POSITIONED FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SOUTHWEST ACROSS
WESTERN CUBA INTO THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA. AT 500 MB...WEAK
BROAD TROUGHING IS EVIDENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE
LATEST UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMMS SAL (SAHARAN AIR ANALYSIS)
IMAGERY SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MOST CONCENTRATED DUST IS
ENCROACHING UPON THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
LONGITUDE. CIMMS PWAT ANALYSIS SHOWS SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE IN THE
COLUMN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS ATTM.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS...AS OF 200
PM...SURFACE TO 700 MB...A 1020 MB SURFACE RIDGE IS LOCATED FROM THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SOUTHEAST TO ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THENCE INTO
THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. ACROSS THE TROPICS...WEAK...BROAD SURFACE
TROUGHING EXISTS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 200 PM...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY.TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE ISLANDS HAVE REACHED AROUND 90 DEGREES WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE ISLANDS. RADAR DETECTS A BAND OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA STRAITS. C-MAN
STATIONS ALONG THE REEF ARE REGISTERING EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT
10 KNOTS OR LESS...WITH LAPS SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTING THAT WINDS
ARE 10 TO 15 KNOTS ACROSS THE OUTERMOST FLORIDA STRAITS.

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT...AN NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER
LEVEL LOW IN COMBINATION WITH BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGHING WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO NORTH OF PINAR DEL RIO.
LATEST AVAILABLE MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS...12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF
ILLUSTRATE COLUMNAR PWAT(PRECIPITABLE WATER) REMAINS BETWEEN 1.75 TO
2.00 THROUGH THE PERIOD. 1020 MB SURFACE RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE PENINSULA...WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE FLORIDA
STRAITS AND POINTS WESTWARD. WEAKER UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND LOWER
LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS TONIGHT...MIDDLE OF THE ROAD CHANCES ON FRIDAY AND LOW
CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT. LESS EVIDENCE OF ANY OF THIS TROUGHING AND THE
UPPER SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD EXIST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH AND
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONABLE AVERAGES.

.INDEPENDENCE DAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK...THE SAL (SAHARAN AIR LAYER)
ANALYSIS DETECTS THE DEEPER CONCENTRATION TIMED TO BE ABOUT 3
PERIODS UPSTREAM OF THE KEYS ATTM. A SURFACE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN NORTH OF THE KEYS ACROSS THE PENINSULA THRU THE PERIOD...BUT
GIVEN THE TYPICAL INSTABILITY REMAINING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...BUT
WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDER THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES...AT 20 PERCENT.
DAYTIME HIGH AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MORE
TYPICAL OF AUGUST THAN EARLY JULY. RUNNING NEAR IN IN EXCESS OF
90...AND PROBABLY ABOVE 80 EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS KEYS WATERS TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A LITTLE MORE BREEZE SEEMS POSSIBLE IN
RESPONSE TO A NOCTURNAL SURGE SATURDAY MORNING AND LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT THIS WOULD BE ONLY
ACROSS THE OUTER STRAITS WELL AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF LAND
MASSES. GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES WILL PREVAIL...HENCE NO HEADLINES
OR ADVISORIES.

&&

.AVIATION... MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST
AND MARATHON INTERNATIONAL TERMINALS THROUGH 03/18Z. VERY BRIEF MVFR
CEILINGS...OR VISIBILITIES MAY OCCUR AS WEAK LOW TOPPED SHOWERS MOVE
NORTHWEST NEAR 15 KNOTS.

&&

.CLIMATE... ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...1935...4.12
INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD RAINFALL
FOR KEY WEST ON JUNE 2ND...WHICH STANDS 80 YEARS LATER. RAINFALL
RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  81  89  81  89 / 30 40 30 20
MARATHON  82  91  81  91 / 30 40 30 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BWC
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY/FLING

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 021839
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
245 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB)...LATEST
AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF
200 PM CONTINUES TO SHOW LOW AMPLITUDE LARGE SCALE TROUGHING ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS...AND LARGE SCALE RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS...WITH THE CENTER OF THIS WARM CORE SYNOPTIC SCALE ANTICYCLONE
LOCATED NEAR THE 4 CORNERS REGION. ACROSS THE LOWER LATITUDES AND
CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA KEYS...THE AXIS OF AN UPPER TROUGH...AT 250 MB
IS POSITIONED FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SOUTHWEST ACROSS
WESTERN CUBA INTO THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA. AT 500 MB...WEAK
BROAD TROUGHING IS EVIDENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE
LATEST UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMMS SAL (SAHARAN AIR ANALYSIS)
IMAGERY SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MOST CONCENTRATED DUST IS
ENCROACHING UPON THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
LONGITUDE. CIMMS PWAT ANALYSIS SHOWS SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE IN THE
COLUMN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS ATTM.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS...AS OF 200
PM...SURFACE TO 700 MB...A 1020 MB SURFACE RIDGE IS LOCATED FROM THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SOUTHEAST TO ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THENCE INTO
THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. ACROSS THE TROPICS...WEAK...BROAD SURFACE
TROUGHING EXISTS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 200 PM...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY.TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE ISLANDS HAVE REACHED AROUND 90 DEGREES WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE ISLANDS. RADAR DETECTS A BAND OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA STRAITS. C-MAN
STATIONS ALONG THE REEF ARE REGISTERING EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT
10 KNOTS OR LESS...WITH LAPS SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTING THAT WINDS
ARE 10 TO 15 KNOTS ACROSS THE OUTERMOST FLORIDA STRAITS.

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT...AN NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER
LEVEL LOW IN COMBINATION WITH BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGHING WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO NORTH OF PINAR DEL RIO.
LATEST AVAILABLE MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS...12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF
ILLUSTRATE COLUMNAR PWAT(PRECIPITABLE WATER) REMAINS BETWEEN 1.75 TO
2.00 THROUGH THE PERIOD. 1020 MB SURFACE RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE PENINSULA...WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE FLORIDA
STRAITS AND POINTS WESTWARD. WEAKER UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND LOWER
LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS TONIGHT...MIDDLE OF THE ROAD CHANCES ON FRIDAY AND LOW
CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT. LESS EVIDENCE OF ANY OF THIS TROUGHING AND THE
UPPER SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD EXIST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH AND
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONABLE AVERAGES.

.INDEPENDENCE DAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK...THE SAL (SAHARAN AIR LAYER)
ANALYSIS DETECTS THE DEEPER CONCENTRATION TIMED TO BE ABOUT 3
PERIODS UPSTREAM OF THE KEYS ATTM. A SURFACE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN NORTH OF THE KEYS ACROSS THE PENINSULA THRU THE PERIOD...BUT
GIVEN THE TYPICAL INSTABILITY REMAINING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...BUT
WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDER THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES...AT 20 PERCENT.
DAYTIME HIGH AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MORE
TYPICAL OF AUGUST THAN EARLY JULY. RUNNING NEAR IN IN EXCESS OF
90...AND PROBABLY ABOVE 80 EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS KEYS WATERS TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A LITTLE MORE BREEZE SEEMS POSSIBLE IN
RESPONSE TO A NOCTURNAL SURGE SATURDAY MORNING AND LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT THIS WOULD BE ONLY
ACROSS THE OUTER STRAITS WELL AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF LAND
MASSES. GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES WILL PREVAIL...HENCE NO HEADLINES
OR ADVISORIES.

&&

.AVIATION... MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST
AND MARATHON INTERNATIONAL TERMINALS THROUGH 03/18Z. VERY BRIEF MVFR
CEILINGS...OR VISIBILITIES MAY OCCUR AS WEAK LOW TOPPED SHOWERS MOVE
NORTHWEST NEAR 15 KNOTS.

&&

.CLIMATE... ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...1935...4.12
INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD RAINFALL
FOR KEY WEST ON JUNE 2ND...WHICH STANDS 80 YEARS LATER. RAINFALL
RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  81  89  81  89 / 30 40 30 20
MARATHON  82  91  81  91 / 30 40 30 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BWC
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY/FLING

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 021839
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
245 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB)...LATEST
AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF
200 PM CONTINUES TO SHOW LOW AMPLITUDE LARGE SCALE TROUGHING ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS...AND LARGE SCALE RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS...WITH THE CENTER OF THIS WARM CORE SYNOPTIC SCALE ANTICYCLONE
LOCATED NEAR THE 4 CORNERS REGION. ACROSS THE LOWER LATITUDES AND
CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA KEYS...THE AXIS OF AN UPPER TROUGH...AT 250 MB
IS POSITIONED FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SOUTHWEST ACROSS
WESTERN CUBA INTO THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA. AT 500 MB...WEAK
BROAD TROUGHING IS EVIDENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE
LATEST UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMMS SAL (SAHARAN AIR ANALYSIS)
IMAGERY SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MOST CONCENTRATED DUST IS
ENCROACHING UPON THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
LONGITUDE. CIMMS PWAT ANALYSIS SHOWS SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE IN THE
COLUMN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS ATTM.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS...AS OF 200
PM...SURFACE TO 700 MB...A 1020 MB SURFACE RIDGE IS LOCATED FROM THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SOUTHEAST TO ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THENCE INTO
THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. ACROSS THE TROPICS...WEAK...BROAD SURFACE
TROUGHING EXISTS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 200 PM...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY.TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE ISLANDS HAVE REACHED AROUND 90 DEGREES WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE ISLANDS. RADAR DETECTS A BAND OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA STRAITS. C-MAN
STATIONS ALONG THE REEF ARE REGISTERING EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT
10 KNOTS OR LESS...WITH LAPS SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTING THAT WINDS
ARE 10 TO 15 KNOTS ACROSS THE OUTERMOST FLORIDA STRAITS.

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT...AN NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER
LEVEL LOW IN COMBINATION WITH BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGHING WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO NORTH OF PINAR DEL RIO.
LATEST AVAILABLE MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS...12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF
ILLUSTRATE COLUMNAR PWAT(PRECIPITABLE WATER) REMAINS BETWEEN 1.75 TO
2.00 THROUGH THE PERIOD. 1020 MB SURFACE RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE PENINSULA...WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE FLORIDA
STRAITS AND POINTS WESTWARD. WEAKER UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND LOWER
LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS TONIGHT...MIDDLE OF THE ROAD CHANCES ON FRIDAY AND LOW
CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT. LESS EVIDENCE OF ANY OF THIS TROUGHING AND THE
UPPER SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD EXIST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH AND
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONABLE AVERAGES.

.INDEPENDENCE DAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK...THE SAL (SAHARAN AIR LAYER)
ANALYSIS DETECTS THE DEEPER CONCENTRATION TIMED TO BE ABOUT 3
PERIODS UPSTREAM OF THE KEYS ATTM. A SURFACE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN NORTH OF THE KEYS ACROSS THE PENINSULA THRU THE PERIOD...BUT
GIVEN THE TYPICAL INSTABILITY REMAINING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...BUT
WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDER THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES...AT 20 PERCENT.
DAYTIME HIGH AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MORE
TYPICAL OF AUGUST THAN EARLY JULY. RUNNING NEAR IN IN EXCESS OF
90...AND PROBABLY ABOVE 80 EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS KEYS WATERS TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A LITTLE MORE BREEZE SEEMS POSSIBLE IN
RESPONSE TO A NOCTURNAL SURGE SATURDAY MORNING AND LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT THIS WOULD BE ONLY
ACROSS THE OUTER STRAITS WELL AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF LAND
MASSES. GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES WILL PREVAIL...HENCE NO HEADLINES
OR ADVISORIES.

&&

.AVIATION... MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST
AND MARATHON INTERNATIONAL TERMINALS THROUGH 03/18Z. VERY BRIEF MVFR
CEILINGS...OR VISIBILITIES MAY OCCUR AS WEAK LOW TOPPED SHOWERS MOVE
NORTHWEST NEAR 15 KNOTS.

&&

.CLIMATE... ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...1935...4.12
INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD RAINFALL
FOR KEY WEST ON JUNE 2ND...WHICH STANDS 80 YEARS LATER. RAINFALL
RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  81  89  81  89 / 30 40 30 20
MARATHON  82  91  81  91 / 30 40 30 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BWC
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY/FLING

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST





000
FXUS62 KKEY 021839
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
245 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB)...LATEST
AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF
200 PM CONTINUES TO SHOW LOW AMPLITUDE LARGE SCALE TROUGHING ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS...AND LARGE SCALE RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS...WITH THE CENTER OF THIS WARM CORE SYNOPTIC SCALE ANTICYCLONE
LOCATED NEAR THE 4 CORNERS REGION. ACROSS THE LOWER LATITUDES AND
CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA KEYS...THE AXIS OF AN UPPER TROUGH...AT 250 MB
IS POSITIONED FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SOUTHWEST ACROSS
WESTERN CUBA INTO THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA. AT 500 MB...WEAK
BROAD TROUGHING IS EVIDENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE
LATEST UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMMS SAL (SAHARAN AIR ANALYSIS)
IMAGERY SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MOST CONCENTRATED DUST IS
ENCROACHING UPON THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
LONGITUDE. CIMMS PWAT ANALYSIS SHOWS SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE IN THE
COLUMN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS ATTM.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS...AS OF 200
PM...SURFACE TO 700 MB...A 1020 MB SURFACE RIDGE IS LOCATED FROM THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SOUTHEAST TO ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THENCE INTO
THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. ACROSS THE TROPICS...WEAK...BROAD SURFACE
TROUGHING EXISTS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 200 PM...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY.TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE ISLANDS HAVE REACHED AROUND 90 DEGREES WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE ISLANDS. RADAR DETECTS A BAND OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA STRAITS. C-MAN
STATIONS ALONG THE REEF ARE REGISTERING EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT
10 KNOTS OR LESS...WITH LAPS SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTING THAT WINDS
ARE 10 TO 15 KNOTS ACROSS THE OUTERMOST FLORIDA STRAITS.

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT...AN NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER
LEVEL LOW IN COMBINATION WITH BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGHING WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO NORTH OF PINAR DEL RIO.
LATEST AVAILABLE MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS...12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF
ILLUSTRATE COLUMNAR PWAT(PRECIPITABLE WATER) REMAINS BETWEEN 1.75 TO
2.00 THROUGH THE PERIOD. 1020 MB SURFACE RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE PENINSULA...WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE FLORIDA
STRAITS AND POINTS WESTWARD. WEAKER UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND LOWER
LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS TONIGHT...MIDDLE OF THE ROAD CHANCES ON FRIDAY AND LOW
CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT. LESS EVIDENCE OF ANY OF THIS TROUGHING AND THE
UPPER SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD EXIST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH AND
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONABLE AVERAGES.

.INDEPENDENCE DAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK...THE SAL (SAHARAN AIR LAYER)
ANALYSIS DETECTS THE DEEPER CONCENTRATION TIMED TO BE ABOUT 3
PERIODS UPSTREAM OF THE KEYS ATTM. A SURFACE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN NORTH OF THE KEYS ACROSS THE PENINSULA THRU THE PERIOD...BUT
GIVEN THE TYPICAL INSTABILITY REMAINING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...BUT
WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDER THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES...AT 20 PERCENT.
DAYTIME HIGH AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MORE
TYPICAL OF AUGUST THAN EARLY JULY. RUNNING NEAR IN IN EXCESS OF
90...AND PROBABLY ABOVE 80 EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS KEYS WATERS TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A LITTLE MORE BREEZE SEEMS POSSIBLE IN
RESPONSE TO A NOCTURNAL SURGE SATURDAY MORNING AND LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT THIS WOULD BE ONLY
ACROSS THE OUTER STRAITS WELL AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF LAND
MASSES. GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES WILL PREVAIL...HENCE NO HEADLINES
OR ADVISORIES.

&&

.AVIATION... MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST
AND MARATHON INTERNATIONAL TERMINALS THROUGH 03/18Z. VERY BRIEF MVFR
CEILINGS...OR VISIBILITIES MAY OCCUR AS WEAK LOW TOPPED SHOWERS MOVE
NORTHWEST NEAR 15 KNOTS.

&&

.CLIMATE... ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...1935...4.12
INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD RAINFALL
FOR KEY WEST ON JUNE 2ND...WHICH STANDS 80 YEARS LATER. RAINFALL
RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  81  89  81  89 / 30 40 30 20
MARATHON  82  91  81  91 / 30 40 30 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BWC
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY/FLING

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST




000
FXUS62 KKEY 021313
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
915 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB)...LATEST
AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF
900 AM DEPICTS LOW AMPLITUDE LARGE SCALE TROUGHING ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS...WITH LARGE SCALE RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS...WITH THE CENTER OF THIS WARM CORE SYNOPTIC SCALE ANTICYCLONE
LOCATED OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM AREA. ACROSS THE LOWER
LATITUDES AND CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA KEYS...AN UPPER TROUGH...AT 250
MB IS NEAR PINAR DEL RIO CUBA AND THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. AT
500 MB...A TROUGH IS EVIDENT FROM NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS
SOUTHWEST TO NORTH OF THE YUCATAN. BUT LATEST CIMMS WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SAHARAN DUST ENCAPSULATED ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA...THE KEYS...AND ALL WATERS AREAS WEST OF ANDROS ISLAND
AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...BUT SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE
IS JUST UPSTREAM.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS...SURFACE TO 700
MB...A 1020 MB SURFACE RIDGE IS POSITIONED FROM NEAR BUOY 41049 IN
THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27 NORTH 63 WEST...WEST SOUTHWESTWARD
TO ACROSS LAKE OCHEOCHOBEE AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
ACROSS THE TROPICS...WEAK TROPICAL WAVES ARE ANALYZED AT THE
LONGITUDE OF JAMAICA AND APPROACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AS A
RESULT...THE 12Z MORNING SOUNDING ILLUSTRATED A GENTLE TO FRESH
SOUTHEAST FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO 850 MB...WITH AMPLE LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AND PWAT AOA 1.81 INCHES WITH
THE DRIEST AIR ~ BETWEEN 850-600 MB.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 900 AM...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE
ISLANDS AND IMMEDIATE ADJOINING WATERS...BUT KEY WEST RADAR AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG COLLIDING BOUNDARIES SITUATED ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE GULF WATERS 20 TO 60 NM WEST OF MAINLAND MONROE. OTHER
LOWER TOPPED ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN THE STRAITS. TEMPERATURES OVER
THE ISLANDS ARE ALREADY IN THE MID 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
70S. C-MAN STATIONS ALONG THE FLORIDA REEF ARE SOUTHEAST NEAR 15
KNOTS...EXCEPT 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN FLORIDA BAY AND SMITH SHOAL LIGHT.

.FORECAST...REST OF THE DAY...LIKE IN THE PAST FEW
DAYS...COMBINATION OF SURFACE RIDGING TO THE NORTH AND WEAK TROPICAL
WAVES OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA WILL GENERATE A
GRADIENT THRU LATE MORNING...BUT GIVEN STRONG HEATING OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA PENINSULA...EXPECT WINDS TO FALL OFF IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
BOUNDARIES...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MORE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
GULF WATERS DOWNSTREAM OF THE SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA GIVEN
THE EMERGENCE OF SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA PENINSULA COLLIDING WITH RESIDENT BOUNDARIES.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL LET DOWN ACROSS THE STRAITS THIS
AFTERNOON ENOUGH TO REMOVE THE CAUTIONARY HEADLINE...THOUGH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER GUSTS ARE LIKELY WITHIN ANY ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM. SAME
HOLDS TRUE IN THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS WELL WEST OF MAINLAND MONROE
COUNTY. OTHERWISE GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES ACROSS THE REST OF THE
WATERS THRU THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
INTERNATIONAL TERMINALS THROUGH 03/12Z. VERY BRIEF MVFR
CEILINGS...OR VISIBILITIES MAY OCCUR AS WEAK LOW TOPPED SHOWERS MOVE
NORTHWEST NEAR 15 KNOTS. BELOW 3K FEET EXPECT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.CLIMATE... ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...1935...4.12
INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD RAINFALL
FOR KEY WEST ON JUNE 2ND...WHICH STANDS 80 YEARS LATER. RAINFALL
RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/GRIDS.........FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS...........BWC
DATA COLLECTION/UPPER AIR.......VICKERY

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 021313
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
915 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB)...LATEST
AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF
900 AM DEPICTS LOW AMPLITUDE LARGE SCALE TROUGHING ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS...WITH LARGE SCALE RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS...WITH THE CENTER OF THIS WARM CORE SYNOPTIC SCALE ANTICYCLONE
LOCATED OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM AREA. ACROSS THE LOWER
LATITUDES AND CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA KEYS...AN UPPER TROUGH...AT 250
MB IS NEAR PINAR DEL RIO CUBA AND THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. AT
500 MB...A TROUGH IS EVIDENT FROM NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS
SOUTHWEST TO NORTH OF THE YUCATAN. BUT LATEST CIMMS WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SAHARAN DUST ENCAPSULATED ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA...THE KEYS...AND ALL WATERS AREAS WEST OF ANDROS ISLAND
AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...BUT SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE
IS JUST UPSTREAM.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS...SURFACE TO 700
MB...A 1020 MB SURFACE RIDGE IS POSITIONED FROM NEAR BUOY 41049 IN
THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27 NORTH 63 WEST...WEST SOUTHWESTWARD
TO ACROSS LAKE OCHEOCHOBEE AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
ACROSS THE TROPICS...WEAK TROPICAL WAVES ARE ANALYZED AT THE
LONGITUDE OF JAMAICA AND APPROACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AS A
RESULT...THE 12Z MORNING SOUNDING ILLUSTRATED A GENTLE TO FRESH
SOUTHEAST FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO 850 MB...WITH AMPLE LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AND PWAT AOA 1.81 INCHES WITH
THE DRIEST AIR ~ BETWEEN 850-600 MB.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 900 AM...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE
ISLANDS AND IMMEDIATE ADJOINING WATERS...BUT KEY WEST RADAR AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG COLLIDING BOUNDARIES SITUATED ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE GULF WATERS 20 TO 60 NM WEST OF MAINLAND MONROE. OTHER
LOWER TOPPED ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN THE STRAITS. TEMPERATURES OVER
THE ISLANDS ARE ALREADY IN THE MID 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
70S. C-MAN STATIONS ALONG THE FLORIDA REEF ARE SOUTHEAST NEAR 15
KNOTS...EXCEPT 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN FLORIDA BAY AND SMITH SHOAL LIGHT.

.FORECAST...REST OF THE DAY...LIKE IN THE PAST FEW
DAYS...COMBINATION OF SURFACE RIDGING TO THE NORTH AND WEAK TROPICAL
WAVES OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA WILL GENERATE A
GRADIENT THRU LATE MORNING...BUT GIVEN STRONG HEATING OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA PENINSULA...EXPECT WINDS TO FALL OFF IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
BOUNDARIES...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MORE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
GULF WATERS DOWNSTREAM OF THE SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA GIVEN
THE EMERGENCE OF SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA PENINSULA COLLIDING WITH RESIDENT BOUNDARIES.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL LET DOWN ACROSS THE STRAITS THIS
AFTERNOON ENOUGH TO REMOVE THE CAUTIONARY HEADLINE...THOUGH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER GUSTS ARE LIKELY WITHIN ANY ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM. SAME
HOLDS TRUE IN THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS WELL WEST OF MAINLAND MONROE
COUNTY. OTHERWISE GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES ACROSS THE REST OF THE
WATERS THRU THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
INTERNATIONAL TERMINALS THROUGH 03/12Z. VERY BRIEF MVFR
CEILINGS...OR VISIBILITIES MAY OCCUR AS WEAK LOW TOPPED SHOWERS MOVE
NORTHWEST NEAR 15 KNOTS. BELOW 3K FEET EXPECT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.CLIMATE... ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...1935...4.12
INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD RAINFALL
FOR KEY WEST ON JUNE 2ND...WHICH STANDS 80 YEARS LATER. RAINFALL
RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/GRIDS.........FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS...........BWC
DATA COLLECTION/UPPER AIR.......VICKERY

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 021313
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
915 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB)...LATEST
AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF
900 AM DEPICTS LOW AMPLITUDE LARGE SCALE TROUGHING ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS...WITH LARGE SCALE RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS...WITH THE CENTER OF THIS WARM CORE SYNOPTIC SCALE ANTICYCLONE
LOCATED OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM AREA. ACROSS THE LOWER
LATITUDES AND CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA KEYS...AN UPPER TROUGH...AT 250
MB IS NEAR PINAR DEL RIO CUBA AND THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. AT
500 MB...A TROUGH IS EVIDENT FROM NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS
SOUTHWEST TO NORTH OF THE YUCATAN. BUT LATEST CIMMS WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SAHARAN DUST ENCAPSULATED ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA...THE KEYS...AND ALL WATERS AREAS WEST OF ANDROS ISLAND
AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...BUT SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE
IS JUST UPSTREAM.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS...SURFACE TO 700
MB...A 1020 MB SURFACE RIDGE IS POSITIONED FROM NEAR BUOY 41049 IN
THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27 NORTH 63 WEST...WEST SOUTHWESTWARD
TO ACROSS LAKE OCHEOCHOBEE AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
ACROSS THE TROPICS...WEAK TROPICAL WAVES ARE ANALYZED AT THE
LONGITUDE OF JAMAICA AND APPROACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AS A
RESULT...THE 12Z MORNING SOUNDING ILLUSTRATED A GENTLE TO FRESH
SOUTHEAST FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO 850 MB...WITH AMPLE LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AND PWAT AOA 1.81 INCHES WITH
THE DRIEST AIR ~ BETWEEN 850-600 MB.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 900 AM...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE
ISLANDS AND IMMEDIATE ADJOINING WATERS...BUT KEY WEST RADAR AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG COLLIDING BOUNDARIES SITUATED ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE GULF WATERS 20 TO 60 NM WEST OF MAINLAND MONROE. OTHER
LOWER TOPPED ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN THE STRAITS. TEMPERATURES OVER
THE ISLANDS ARE ALREADY IN THE MID 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
70S. C-MAN STATIONS ALONG THE FLORIDA REEF ARE SOUTHEAST NEAR 15
KNOTS...EXCEPT 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN FLORIDA BAY AND SMITH SHOAL LIGHT.

.FORECAST...REST OF THE DAY...LIKE IN THE PAST FEW
DAYS...COMBINATION OF SURFACE RIDGING TO THE NORTH AND WEAK TROPICAL
WAVES OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA WILL GENERATE A
GRADIENT THRU LATE MORNING...BUT GIVEN STRONG HEATING OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA PENINSULA...EXPECT WINDS TO FALL OFF IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
BOUNDARIES...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MORE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
GULF WATERS DOWNSTREAM OF THE SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA GIVEN
THE EMERGENCE OF SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA PENINSULA COLLIDING WITH RESIDENT BOUNDARIES.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL LET DOWN ACROSS THE STRAITS THIS
AFTERNOON ENOUGH TO REMOVE THE CAUTIONARY HEADLINE...THOUGH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER GUSTS ARE LIKELY WITHIN ANY ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM. SAME
HOLDS TRUE IN THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS WELL WEST OF MAINLAND MONROE
COUNTY. OTHERWISE GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES ACROSS THE REST OF THE
WATERS THRU THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
INTERNATIONAL TERMINALS THROUGH 03/12Z. VERY BRIEF MVFR
CEILINGS...OR VISIBILITIES MAY OCCUR AS WEAK LOW TOPPED SHOWERS MOVE
NORTHWEST NEAR 15 KNOTS. BELOW 3K FEET EXPECT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.CLIMATE... ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...1935...4.12
INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD RAINFALL
FOR KEY WEST ON JUNE 2ND...WHICH STANDS 80 YEARS LATER. RAINFALL
RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/GRIDS.........FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS...........BWC
DATA COLLECTION/UPPER AIR.......VICKERY

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 020904
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
504 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MADE THEIR WAY TO THE FLORIDA
STRAITS SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER KEYS EARLIER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER
THESE DISSIPATED OVER THE AREA FEW HOURS LATER. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE OBSERVED. TEMPERATURES HAVE STAYED
AROUND 84F WITH GENERALLY EAST WINDS OF 8 TO 12 KNOTS AND GUSTY AT
TIMES.

.FORECAST...WINDS HAVE BEEN IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOTS RANGE OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. HOWEVER THE 00Z GFS AND EUROPEAN
MODELS SHOWED THAT WINDS WILL SLOW DOWN TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE
DAY. THEREFORE...FORECAST WAS ADJUST DOWN A BIT TO REFLECT THIS NEW
MODEL SOLUTION. AT MID LEVELS...A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR...DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF SAHARAN DUST (SAL)...STILL PRESENT OVER OUR AREA AND WILL
PERSIST TODAY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS WAS DROPPED TO 10 PERCENT ACROSS THE
FLORIDA STRAITS AND KEPT AT 20 PERCENT ELSEWHERE...WHICH STILL IS
OPTIMISTIC DUE TO THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT AND CAP EXPECTED FOR TODAY.
FOR FRIDAY...THE VERTICAL CAP WILL DISSIPATE AND PWAT VALUES WILL
SLIGHTLY INCREASE BUT NOTHING IMPRESSIVE TO EXPECT WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ITS SURROUNDING
WATERS. FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND WAS NOT CHANGED...WHERE WE ARE STILL
EXPECTING SOME SHOWERS SATURDAY AS A SURGE OF MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY
ACROSS THE KEYS AND EXITS ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...REACHING THE LOW 90S
EVERY DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WELL INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK. LATEST MARINE
OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS
HAVE BEEN BELOW 20 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 22 KNOTS.
HOWEVER...LATEST GFS MODEL RUN SHOWED SLOWER WINDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
STRAITS FOR TODAY AND THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE...THE CAUTION FOR SMALL
CRAFT WAS KEPT...WITH WINDS SUBSIDING TODAY ACROSS THE STRAITS. THIS
LAST GFS RUN KEPT WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA...WITH THE HIGHEST FOR THE
PERIOD OF SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO
20 KNOTS. IF THIS MODEL TREND CONTINUES...FORECAST WILL BE ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SCATTERED CU AROUND 2500 FT. ISOLATED -SHRA WILL DEVELOP
BUT COVERAGE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS. WINDS WILL RUN 110- 120 DEG
8-12 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...YESTERDAY JULY 1 AT KEY WEST...THE DAILY HIGH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE OF 83F TIED THE RECORD...WHICH WAS LAST OBSERVED IN 2011.
FOR A DAY LIKE TODAY...JULY 2...IN KEY WEST...IN 1881...THE DAILY RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 96F WAS RECORDED...AND IN 1967...THE DAILY RECORD
WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 84F WAS RECORDED. TEMPERATURES RECORD IN KEY
WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.


&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....MM

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 020904
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
504 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MADE THEIR WAY TO THE FLORIDA
STRAITS SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER KEYS EARLIER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER
THESE DISSIPATED OVER THE AREA FEW HOURS LATER. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE OBSERVED. TEMPERATURES HAVE STAYED
AROUND 84F WITH GENERALLY EAST WINDS OF 8 TO 12 KNOTS AND GUSTY AT
TIMES.

.FORECAST...WINDS HAVE BEEN IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOTS RANGE OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. HOWEVER THE 00Z GFS AND EUROPEAN
MODELS SHOWED THAT WINDS WILL SLOW DOWN TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE
DAY. THEREFORE...FORECAST WAS ADJUST DOWN A BIT TO REFLECT THIS NEW
MODEL SOLUTION. AT MID LEVELS...A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR...DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF SAHARAN DUST (SAL)...STILL PRESENT OVER OUR AREA AND WILL
PERSIST TODAY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS WAS DROPPED TO 10 PERCENT ACROSS THE
FLORIDA STRAITS AND KEPT AT 20 PERCENT ELSEWHERE...WHICH STILL IS
OPTIMISTIC DUE TO THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT AND CAP EXPECTED FOR TODAY.
FOR FRIDAY...THE VERTICAL CAP WILL DISSIPATE AND PWAT VALUES WILL
SLIGHTLY INCREASE BUT NOTHING IMPRESSIVE TO EXPECT WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ITS SURROUNDING
WATERS. FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND WAS NOT CHANGED...WHERE WE ARE STILL
EXPECTING SOME SHOWERS SATURDAY AS A SURGE OF MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY
ACROSS THE KEYS AND EXITS ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...REACHING THE LOW 90S
EVERY DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WELL INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK. LATEST MARINE
OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS
HAVE BEEN BELOW 20 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 22 KNOTS.
HOWEVER...LATEST GFS MODEL RUN SHOWED SLOWER WINDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
STRAITS FOR TODAY AND THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE...THE CAUTION FOR SMALL
CRAFT WAS KEPT...WITH WINDS SUBSIDING TODAY ACROSS THE STRAITS. THIS
LAST GFS RUN KEPT WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA...WITH THE HIGHEST FOR THE
PERIOD OF SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO
20 KNOTS. IF THIS MODEL TREND CONTINUES...FORECAST WILL BE ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SCATTERED CU AROUND 2500 FT. ISOLATED -SHRA WILL DEVELOP
BUT COVERAGE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS. WINDS WILL RUN 110- 120 DEG
8-12 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...YESTERDAY JULY 1 AT KEY WEST...THE DAILY HIGH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE OF 83F TIED THE RECORD...WHICH WAS LAST OBSERVED IN 2011.
FOR A DAY LIKE TODAY...JULY 2...IN KEY WEST...IN 1881...THE DAILY RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 96F WAS RECORDED...AND IN 1967...THE DAILY RECORD
WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 84F WAS RECORDED. TEMPERATURES RECORD IN KEY
WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.


&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....MM

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 020225
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1025 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
OUTSIDE OF A FEW SHOWERS AND A MODEST OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MIGRATING
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE NEARSHORE GULF WATERS NORTH OF THE LOWER
KEYS AND THE OUTER WATERS OF MAINLAND MONROE...NO PRECIPITATION HAS
OCCURRED ON THE ISLAND CHAIN AND SOUTHWARD. MEANWHILE...OUR EVENING
SOUNDING REVEALED LIMITED MOISTURE BELOW 700 MB WITH A 19 DEGREE C
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AT 850 MB. GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST
WINDS REACHED UP TO JUST ABOVE 700 MB...BEFORE TURNING SOUTHERLY AND
INCREASING ABOVE 400 MB.

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...ALTHOUGH THE STRONG AND DEEP
TROPOSPHERIC WESTERN ATLANTIC HAS LIFTED INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA...EXTREMELY DRY AIR WITHIN A VERY FORMIDABLE SAHARAN AIR
LAYER LYING ACROSS OUR AREA WILL LIMIT DEEP CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO
ISOLATED. OTHERWISE...A STEADY...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL KEEP
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S UNDER GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES.

&&

.MARINE...WITH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA...EXPECT A SUBTLE WIND INCREASE ON OUR ENTIRE MARINE
DISTRICT. THEREFORE...AN EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE WILL BE KEPT FOR
INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS FOR THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND NEAR 15 KNOTS
OR SLIGHTLY LESS ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST
SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10 TO 12 KNOTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR
20 KNOTS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
IN 1923...THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 69F WAS LAST
RECORDED IN KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS HAVE BEEN KEPT SINCE 1872.

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...APA
AVIATION.............................BF
DATA ACQUISITION.....................SC

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 020225
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1025 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
OUTSIDE OF A FEW SHOWERS AND A MODEST OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MIGRATING
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE NEARSHORE GULF WATERS NORTH OF THE LOWER
KEYS AND THE OUTER WATERS OF MAINLAND MONROE...NO PRECIPITATION HAS
OCCURRED ON THE ISLAND CHAIN AND SOUTHWARD. MEANWHILE...OUR EVENING
SOUNDING REVEALED LIMITED MOISTURE BELOW 700 MB WITH A 19 DEGREE C
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AT 850 MB. GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST
WINDS REACHED UP TO JUST ABOVE 700 MB...BEFORE TURNING SOUTHERLY AND
INCREASING ABOVE 400 MB.

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...ALTHOUGH THE STRONG AND DEEP
TROPOSPHERIC WESTERN ATLANTIC HAS LIFTED INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA...EXTREMELY DRY AIR WITHIN A VERY FORMIDABLE SAHARAN AIR
LAYER LYING ACROSS OUR AREA WILL LIMIT DEEP CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO
ISOLATED. OTHERWISE...A STEADY...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL KEEP
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S UNDER GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES.

&&

.MARINE...WITH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA...EXPECT A SUBTLE WIND INCREASE ON OUR ENTIRE MARINE
DISTRICT. THEREFORE...AN EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE WILL BE KEPT FOR
INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS FOR THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND NEAR 15 KNOTS
OR SLIGHTLY LESS ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST
SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10 TO 12 KNOTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR
20 KNOTS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
IN 1923...THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 69F WAS LAST
RECORDED IN KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS HAVE BEEN KEPT SINCE 1872.

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...APA
AVIATION.............................BF
DATA ACQUISITION.....................SC

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 011948
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
348 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SAL CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS BEING OBSERVED. A COUPLE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF
THE ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION OVER THE MAINLAND MAY MOVE
INTO THE GULF WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WELL NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS. ONLY FEW-SCT CU CLOUDS AROUND 2-3KFT AND SCT CIRRUS
STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 ALONG THE NORTHERN KEYS
TO THE LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE.

.FORECAST...
A SMALL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST OVERNIGHT...AND A
FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS AND NEAR THE ISLAND
CHAIN. THE SAL OUTBREAK WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY...SUPPRESSING
ACTIVITY. DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ABOVE 900MB WILL ALLOW ONLY A VERY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM. A BRIEF MOISTURE SURGE...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 2 INCHES...WILL MOVE
INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN ACROSS THE ISLAND
CHAIN ON FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...A WEAK PERTURBATION ALOFT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS CUBA AND THE ISLANDS ON FRIDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST.

SAHARAN DUST WILL THEN CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.
HOWEVER...A WEAK PERTURBATION IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT..WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO SURGE AND LULL THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO WEAK PERTURBATIONS PROPAGATING THROUGH
THE AREA...AND DAILY INTERRUPTION OF SURFACE FLOW...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE UPPER KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY DUE TO THE THERMAL TROUGH ON THE
MAINLAND. OTHERWISE ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE RIDGE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BREEZES WILL SURGE AND LULL THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY...WITH PERIODS OF CAUTIONARY WINDS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE ISLAND
CHAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS AROUND 100
DEGREES WITH SPEEDS NEAR 10 KNOTS. FEW-SCT CU AROUND 2.5KFT AND
CIRRUS AOA 20-25KFT. A COUPLE SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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