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000
FXUS62 KKEY 281910
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
300 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...LATEST AVAILABLE IR
IMAGERY AS OF 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUED TO DEPICT A DEEP
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS. SOUTH OF THAT...A POWERFUL SOUTHERN BRANCH OF
THE SUBTROPICAL JET IS ILLUSTRATING 100 KNOT WEST SOUTHWESTERLIES AT
250 MB. 500 MB WINDS AT 50 PLUS KNOTS ARE MOVING RIGHT ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE KEYS. GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE IS INDICATED IN THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH MCS SYSTEM APPROACHING
SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS...SURFACE TO 700
MB...LATEST AVAILABLE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH LATEST
AVAILABLE MARINE AND LAND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS DETAILS
THE AXIS OF A 1030 MB SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS. WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THAT...A 1006 MB SURFACE LOW IS
SITUATED AT ABOUT 90 WEST AND 27.5 NORTH...WITH AN ATTENDANT WARM
FROM EXTENDING TO ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO ACROSS GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 200 PM...SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS
THE ISLANDS AND ADJOINING WATERS...OWING TO THICK CIRRUS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FIRST APPROACHING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX LOCATED FROM
NEAR MAPLES TO ABOUT 75 NM WEST OF THE DRY TORTUGAS. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE ISLANDS REACHED THE UPPER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S. C-MAN STATIONS ALONG THE FLORIDA REEF AND IN
SOUTHER FLORIDA BAY ARE RECORDING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS AND GUSTY. KEY WEST RADAR DETECTS CLUSTERS OF STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES OVER
THE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO WEST OF GMZ033.

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THRU FRIDAY...SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS WILL
BE BENEATH AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET. THE FIRST
MCC(MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX) WILL DELIVER A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS THIS EVENING.
THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTAIN ISOLATED WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 35 OR 40 KNOTS...BUT AFTER THIS ACTIVITY LETS DOWN BEYOND
MIDNIGHT. THEN OVERNIGHT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF WILL MOVE EASTWARDS...REACHING THE PENINSULA DURING
WEDNESDAY THEN EAST OF NORTH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE MOVING
UP THE EAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY.

THEREFORE THE BEST FORCING AND DYNAMICS WILL OCCUR WHEN THE LOW IN
TANDEM WITH THE MID LEVEL CYCLONE MOVES BY TO THE NORTH DURING
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS SUCH...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
INDICATED A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
FLORIDA THRU 12Z WED. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OF 45 KNOTS GIVEN THE EXPECTED
MOMENTUM INDICATED BY THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...HOWEVER A FEW GUSTS
OVER 50 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING. IN ADDITION...WET
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS DO NOT LEAVE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SMALL HAIL.
MARINERS AND RESIDENTS SHOULD LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND ALSO
FOLLOW SOCIAL MEDIA AND OTHER OUTLETS TO KEEP ABREAST OF THE WEATHER
SITUATION THIS EVENING AND ON WEDNESDAY. DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING
THRU AFTERNOON...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF COLDER AIR IN THE
LOWER TO MID-LEVELS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AND BEHIND THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO SOME WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THE
MORNING. GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS
ON WEDNESDAY...SURFACE/LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY
DURING THE DAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. SO GIVEN ALL THAT...WE
HAVE LIKELY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...70%.

THE COLD CORE MIDDLE LEVEL LOW...AT 500 MB...NOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL MOVE TOWARDS GEORGIA AND MAY FLATTEN A BIT BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT A DEEPER MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THIS
LOW THEN MOVING OFF NEW ENGLAND AND BECOMING STACKED OVER THE
WEEKEND.

SO FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...GIVEN INSTABILITY
ALOFT AND LOWER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE KEYS WITH THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWER CHANCES
WILL STILL REMAIN ELEVATED WITH INSTABILITY SUPPORTING ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MIDDLE OF THE ROAD ON THURSDAY...AND LOW CHANCE ON
THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER MORE TO WESTERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THEN WEST TO NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES NORTHEAST OF FLORIDA. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO HIGH 80S WITH
HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S WILL CONTINUE TILL THURSDAY NIGHT.

THEN ON FRIDAY...INDICATIONS OF A WEAK COOL FRONT CONTINUE...WITH
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS AND MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING IN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ARE INDICATED FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH LOWS AROUND 70 OR LOWER 70S...BUT WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THRU MONDAY...A WEAKER BUT TYPICAL
PRESSURE PATTERN FOR EARLY MAY CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS. SOME MESOSCALE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY IF THE
WINDS ARE GENTLE AND MORE NORTHEASTERLY. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...20%

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION FOR INCREASING
WINDS...BUT STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY THIS EVENING IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
KEYS WATERS LATE TONIGHT...AND SOME OF THESE GUSTS MAY BE JUST UNDER
SEVERE LIMITS...GUSTING TO AROUND 45 KNOTS...BUT A FEW GUSTS OVER 50
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...SMALL HAIL IS A POSSIBILITY AS
WELL. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AS THE SURFACE LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE PENINSULA DURING WEDNESDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL LET
DOWN WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS EXPECTED FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH THE FIRST WEEKEND OF MAY. ALTHOUGH NOT FORECASTED
YET...SOME LONG PERIOD SWELL MAY MOVE INTO THE WESTERN STRAITS AND
THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEAS FOR THESE PERIODS ACROSS THESE
AREAS AND THIS WILL BE ADDRESSED LATER.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS ARE CONCEIVABLE AT EYW AND MTH THIS EVENING INTO
EARLY TONIGHT. THIS POSSIBILITY IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO PLACE IN THE
TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
AT EYW AND MTH WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE TO
ABOUT 3000 FEET WILL DECREASE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING...BEFORE
INCREASING ONCE AGAIN TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE... THE LOW TEMPERATURE SO FAR TODAY AT KEY WEST
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IS 82 DEGREES. IF THE TEMPERATURE AT KEY WEST
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT DOES NOT DROP BELOW 82 DEGREES BEFORE MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...THIS WOULD SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR WARMEST MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE EVER MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON APRIL 28TH. THE CURRENT
DAILY RECORD FOR WARMEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED IN KEY
WEST ON APRIL 28TH IS 81 DEGREES...SET IN 1991. TEMPERATURE RECORDS
AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  76  87  77  84 / 70 70 50 40
MARATHON  76  88  78  84 / 70 70 50 40

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BS
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 281910
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
300 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...LATEST AVAILABLE IR
IMAGERY AS OF 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUED TO DEPICT A DEEP
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS. SOUTH OF THAT...A POWERFUL SOUTHERN BRANCH OF
THE SUBTROPICAL JET IS ILLUSTRATING 100 KNOT WEST SOUTHWESTERLIES AT
250 MB. 500 MB WINDS AT 50 PLUS KNOTS ARE MOVING RIGHT ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE KEYS. GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE IS INDICATED IN THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH MCS SYSTEM APPROACHING
SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS...SURFACE TO 700
MB...LATEST AVAILABLE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH LATEST
AVAILABLE MARINE AND LAND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS DETAILS
THE AXIS OF A 1030 MB SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS. WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THAT...A 1006 MB SURFACE LOW IS
SITUATED AT ABOUT 90 WEST AND 27.5 NORTH...WITH AN ATTENDANT WARM
FROM EXTENDING TO ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO ACROSS GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 200 PM...SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS
THE ISLANDS AND ADJOINING WATERS...OWING TO THICK CIRRUS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FIRST APPROACHING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX LOCATED FROM
NEAR MAPLES TO ABOUT 75 NM WEST OF THE DRY TORTUGAS. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE ISLANDS REACHED THE UPPER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S. C-MAN STATIONS ALONG THE FLORIDA REEF AND IN
SOUTHER FLORIDA BAY ARE RECORDING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS AND GUSTY. KEY WEST RADAR DETECTS CLUSTERS OF STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES OVER
THE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO WEST OF GMZ033.

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THRU FRIDAY...SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS WILL
BE BENEATH AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET. THE FIRST
MCC(MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX) WILL DELIVER A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS THIS EVENING.
THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTAIN ISOLATED WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 35 OR 40 KNOTS...BUT AFTER THIS ACTIVITY LETS DOWN BEYOND
MIDNIGHT. THEN OVERNIGHT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF WILL MOVE EASTWARDS...REACHING THE PENINSULA DURING
WEDNESDAY THEN EAST OF NORTH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE MOVING
UP THE EAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY.

THEREFORE THE BEST FORCING AND DYNAMICS WILL OCCUR WHEN THE LOW IN
TANDEM WITH THE MID LEVEL CYCLONE MOVES BY TO THE NORTH DURING
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS SUCH...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
INDICATED A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
FLORIDA THRU 12Z WED. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OF 45 KNOTS GIVEN THE EXPECTED
MOMENTUM INDICATED BY THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...HOWEVER A FEW GUSTS
OVER 50 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING. IN ADDITION...WET
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS DO NOT LEAVE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SMALL HAIL.
MARINERS AND RESIDENTS SHOULD LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND ALSO
FOLLOW SOCIAL MEDIA AND OTHER OUTLETS TO KEEP ABREAST OF THE WEATHER
SITUATION THIS EVENING AND ON WEDNESDAY. DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING
THRU AFTERNOON...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF COLDER AIR IN THE
LOWER TO MID-LEVELS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AND BEHIND THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO SOME WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THE
MORNING. GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS
ON WEDNESDAY...SURFACE/LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY
DURING THE DAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. SO GIVEN ALL THAT...WE
HAVE LIKELY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...70%.

THE COLD CORE MIDDLE LEVEL LOW...AT 500 MB...NOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL MOVE TOWARDS GEORGIA AND MAY FLATTEN A BIT BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT A DEEPER MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THIS
LOW THEN MOVING OFF NEW ENGLAND AND BECOMING STACKED OVER THE
WEEKEND.

SO FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...GIVEN INSTABILITY
ALOFT AND LOWER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE KEYS WITH THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWER CHANCES
WILL STILL REMAIN ELEVATED WITH INSTABILITY SUPPORTING ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MIDDLE OF THE ROAD ON THURSDAY...AND LOW CHANCE ON
THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER MORE TO WESTERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THEN WEST TO NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES NORTHEAST OF FLORIDA. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO HIGH 80S WITH
HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S WILL CONTINUE TILL THURSDAY NIGHT.

THEN ON FRIDAY...INDICATIONS OF A WEAK COOL FRONT CONTINUE...WITH
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS AND MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING IN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ARE INDICATED FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH LOWS AROUND 70 OR LOWER 70S...BUT WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THRU MONDAY...A WEAKER BUT TYPICAL
PRESSURE PATTERN FOR EARLY MAY CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS. SOME MESOSCALE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY IF THE
WINDS ARE GENTLE AND MORE NORTHEASTERLY. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...20%

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION FOR INCREASING
WINDS...BUT STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY THIS EVENING IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
KEYS WATERS LATE TONIGHT...AND SOME OF THESE GUSTS MAY BE JUST UNDER
SEVERE LIMITS...GUSTING TO AROUND 45 KNOTS...BUT A FEW GUSTS OVER 50
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...SMALL HAIL IS A POSSIBILITY AS
WELL. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AS THE SURFACE LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE PENINSULA DURING WEDNESDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL LET
DOWN WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS EXPECTED FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH THE FIRST WEEKEND OF MAY. ALTHOUGH NOT FORECASTED
YET...SOME LONG PERIOD SWELL MAY MOVE INTO THE WESTERN STRAITS AND
THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEAS FOR THESE PERIODS ACROSS THESE
AREAS AND THIS WILL BE ADDRESSED LATER.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS ARE CONCEIVABLE AT EYW AND MTH THIS EVENING INTO
EARLY TONIGHT. THIS POSSIBILITY IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO PLACE IN THE
TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
AT EYW AND MTH WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE TO
ABOUT 3000 FEET WILL DECREASE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING...BEFORE
INCREASING ONCE AGAIN TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE... THE LOW TEMPERATURE SO FAR TODAY AT KEY WEST
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IS 82 DEGREES. IF THE TEMPERATURE AT KEY WEST
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT DOES NOT DROP BELOW 82 DEGREES BEFORE MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...THIS WOULD SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR WARMEST MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE EVER MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON APRIL 28TH. THE CURRENT
DAILY RECORD FOR WARMEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED IN KEY
WEST ON APRIL 28TH IS 81 DEGREES...SET IN 1991. TEMPERATURE RECORDS
AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  76  87  77  84 / 70 70 50 40
MARATHON  76  88  78  84 / 70 70 50 40

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BS
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST




000
FXUS62 KKEY 280723
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
323 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN LIFTING
NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD...MAINLY ACROSS THE GULF AND BAY WATERS...AND
OUR EASTERN-MOST ATLANTIC WATERS. MORE ISOLATED AND WEAKER ECHOES
HAVE BEEN FOUND IN OUR ATLATNIC WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY. A GENTLE TO MODERATE
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE IS KEEPING WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN
PLACE...WITH TEMPERATURES HAVING A HARD TIME DROPPING INTO THE LOWER
80S. DEWPOINTS AT THIS HOUR ARE CLOSE TO 77 ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN.
THAT IS QUITE STICKY FOR APRIL.

LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
SINCE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND THEN CROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TO BE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES FOR THE KEYS
STEADILY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW PERIODS. KEPT OUR GRIDDED NUMBERS
THE SAME FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT NUDGED THE PROBABILITY OF
SHOWERS TO LIKELY/NUMEROUS FOR WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED/SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS. THAT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS WELL...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE TRAILING FRONT. AT THIS
TIME...THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE KEYS SOME TIME LATE
THURSDAY...BUT A WIND SHIFT SHOULD OCCUR AHEAD OF THE ONSET OF
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A
NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE LOWEST LAYERS SHOULD REDUCE THE RAIN
CHANCE FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND THEN BECOME
CENTERED IN THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
TURN OUR WINDS AGAIN FROM THE EAST...AND KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE LATE PERIODS OF THIS FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL
WATERS SURROUNDING THE FLORIDA KEYS. THEY WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
TURN THE WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST BY LATE THURSDAY. A MIX OF CAUTIONARY
OR ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT ARE POSSIBLE FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS WINDS TRANSITION AHEAD AND BEHIND
THE FRONT. KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST FORECASTS SHOULD YOU HAVE
BOATING PLANS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 28/00Z AT BOTH
THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON ISLAND TERMINALS. A CLOUD LINE WILL LIKELY
FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT BE TRANSPORTED NORTH OF THE
ISLAND CHAIN DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS. THERE IS
NO REASON NOT TO EXPECT ANTHROPOGENIC HAZE FROM THE CANE FIELDS OF
CUBA ONCE AGAIN...WITH NO OPERATIONAL IMPACTS EXPECTED. MAY HAVE TO
AMEND FOR SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO BOUNDARIES DRIFTING
SOUTHWARD AND AMPLE LOCALIZED LIFTING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...1898...THE HIGH TEMPERATURE
IN KEY WEST WAS 73 DEGREES SETTING THE RECORD FOR COOL MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE ON APRIL 28TH. THIS RECORD REMAINS STANDING AFTER 117
YEARS. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  88  78  87  77 / 30 40 60 50
MARATHON  91  78  88  78 / 30 40 60 50

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........04
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BWC
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST




000
FXUS62 KKEY 280723
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
323 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN LIFTING
NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD...MAINLY ACROSS THE GULF AND BAY WATERS...AND
OUR EASTERN-MOST ATLANTIC WATERS. MORE ISOLATED AND WEAKER ECHOES
HAVE BEEN FOUND IN OUR ATLATNIC WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY. A GENTLE TO MODERATE
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE IS KEEPING WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN
PLACE...WITH TEMPERATURES HAVING A HARD TIME DROPPING INTO THE LOWER
80S. DEWPOINTS AT THIS HOUR ARE CLOSE TO 77 ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN.
THAT IS QUITE STICKY FOR APRIL.

LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
SINCE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND THEN CROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TO BE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES FOR THE KEYS
STEADILY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW PERIODS. KEPT OUR GRIDDED NUMBERS
THE SAME FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT NUDGED THE PROBABILITY OF
SHOWERS TO LIKELY/NUMEROUS FOR WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED/SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS. THAT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS WELL...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE TRAILING FRONT. AT THIS
TIME...THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE KEYS SOME TIME LATE
THURSDAY...BUT A WIND SHIFT SHOULD OCCUR AHEAD OF THE ONSET OF
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A
NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE LOWEST LAYERS SHOULD REDUCE THE RAIN
CHANCE FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND THEN BECOME
CENTERED IN THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
TURN OUR WINDS AGAIN FROM THE EAST...AND KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE LATE PERIODS OF THIS FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL
WATERS SURROUNDING THE FLORIDA KEYS. THEY WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
TURN THE WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST BY LATE THURSDAY. A MIX OF CAUTIONARY
OR ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT ARE POSSIBLE FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS WINDS TRANSITION AHEAD AND BEHIND
THE FRONT. KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST FORECASTS SHOULD YOU HAVE
BOATING PLANS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 28/00Z AT BOTH
THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON ISLAND TERMINALS. A CLOUD LINE WILL LIKELY
FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT BE TRANSPORTED NORTH OF THE
ISLAND CHAIN DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS. THERE IS
NO REASON NOT TO EXPECT ANTHROPOGENIC HAZE FROM THE CANE FIELDS OF
CUBA ONCE AGAIN...WITH NO OPERATIONAL IMPACTS EXPECTED. MAY HAVE TO
AMEND FOR SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO BOUNDARIES DRIFTING
SOUTHWARD AND AMPLE LOCALIZED LIFTING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...1898...THE HIGH TEMPERATURE
IN KEY WEST WAS 73 DEGREES SETTING THE RECORD FOR COOL MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE ON APRIL 28TH. THIS RECORD REMAINS STANDING AFTER 117
YEARS. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  88  78  87  77 / 30 40 60 50
MARATHON  91  78  88  78 / 30 40 60 50

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........04
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BWC
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 280230
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1029 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
ALONG THE FLORIDA KEYS. ANOTHER STEAMY AND VERY WARM EVENING IS
UNDERWAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S AND DEW POINT READINGS
IN THE MID 70S. IN FACT...ITS HIGHLY LIKELY ANOTHER MAX/MIN RECORD
WILL BITE THE DUST WITH OUR TEMPERATURE NOT DROPPING BELOW 81
DEGREES. ONCE AGAIN...LOCAL RADARS ARE VOID OF PRECIPITATION ECHOES
IN OUR REGION. SURFACE WISE...A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDS
ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...WITH AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE (1003 MB) ON THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. ACROSS OUR
MARINE DISTRICT...WINDS ARE VARIABLE BUT LEANING TOWARD EAST
SOUTHEAST AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. OTHERWISE...OUR EVENING
SOUNDING REVEALS MOISTURE CONFINED TO BETWEEN (850 AND 800 MB) WITH
A 2 DEGREE INVERSION AT THE TOP OF THIS LAYER. WINDS VEER FROM EAST
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST...BEFORE INCREASING APPRECIABLY BEGINNING AT
850 MB.

.SHORT TERM (OVERNIGHT)...
OUR AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SHARP AND DEEP
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 18 HOURS.
MEANWHILE...EXPECT THE ISENTROPIC LIFT JUST BELOW THE 310 K SURFACE
TO SHUT DOWN LEAVING MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AND INCREASE TO 10 TO PERHAPS 15
MPH. WITH THAT SAID...SEE NO REASON TO STRAY FROM ONLY DIME POPS
WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING NEAR 80 DEGREES.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO MOVING EAST
NORTHEASTWARD...VARIABLE WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS SHOULD BECOMING
MOSTLY SOUTH AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON MOST KEYS COASTAL
WATERS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL AT THE EYW AND MTH TERMINALS. A STRATOCUMULUS LAYER
BASED AROUND 060 WILL ERODE BY SUNRISE. A CLOUD LINE BASED AT 020
WILL ONCE AGAIN FORM ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...EXPECT HAZY/SMOKEY SKIES EMANATING FROM CUBAN
AGRICULTURAL FIRES TO PERSIST....VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS NOT EXPECTED.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR BOTH TERMINALS ARE LOW THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLIMATE...
IN 1937...THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 63F WAS
RECORDED AT KEY WEST. RECORD TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN KEPT SINCE 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...APA
AVIATION.............................CR
DATA ACQUISITION.....................BF

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 280230
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1029 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
ALONG THE FLORIDA KEYS. ANOTHER STEAMY AND VERY WARM EVENING IS
UNDERWAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S AND DEW POINT READINGS
IN THE MID 70S. IN FACT...ITS HIGHLY LIKELY ANOTHER MAX/MIN RECORD
WILL BITE THE DUST WITH OUR TEMPERATURE NOT DROPPING BELOW 81
DEGREES. ONCE AGAIN...LOCAL RADARS ARE VOID OF PRECIPITATION ECHOES
IN OUR REGION. SURFACE WISE...A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDS
ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...WITH AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE (1003 MB) ON THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. ACROSS OUR
MARINE DISTRICT...WINDS ARE VARIABLE BUT LEANING TOWARD EAST
SOUTHEAST AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. OTHERWISE...OUR EVENING
SOUNDING REVEALS MOISTURE CONFINED TO BETWEEN (850 AND 800 MB) WITH
A 2 DEGREE INVERSION AT THE TOP OF THIS LAYER. WINDS VEER FROM EAST
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST...BEFORE INCREASING APPRECIABLY BEGINNING AT
850 MB.

.SHORT TERM (OVERNIGHT)...
OUR AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SHARP AND DEEP
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 18 HOURS.
MEANWHILE...EXPECT THE ISENTROPIC LIFT JUST BELOW THE 310 K SURFACE
TO SHUT DOWN LEAVING MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AND INCREASE TO 10 TO PERHAPS 15
MPH. WITH THAT SAID...SEE NO REASON TO STRAY FROM ONLY DIME POPS
WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING NEAR 80 DEGREES.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO MOVING EAST
NORTHEASTWARD...VARIABLE WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS SHOULD BECOMING
MOSTLY SOUTH AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON MOST KEYS COASTAL
WATERS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL AT THE EYW AND MTH TERMINALS. A STRATOCUMULUS LAYER
BASED AROUND 060 WILL ERODE BY SUNRISE. A CLOUD LINE BASED AT 020
WILL ONCE AGAIN FORM ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...EXPECT HAZY/SMOKEY SKIES EMANATING FROM CUBAN
AGRICULTURAL FIRES TO PERSIST....VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS NOT EXPECTED.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR BOTH TERMINALS ARE LOW THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLIMATE...
IN 1937...THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 63F WAS
RECORDED AT KEY WEST. RECORD TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN KEPT SINCE 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...APA
AVIATION.............................CR
DATA ACQUISITION.....................BF

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 280230
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1029 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
ALONG THE FLORIDA KEYS. ANOTHER STEAMY AND VERY WARM EVENING IS
UNDERWAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S AND DEW POINT READINGS
IN THE MID 70S. IN FACT...ITS HIGHLY LIKELY ANOTHER MAX/MIN RECORD
WILL BITE THE DUST WITH OUR TEMPERATURE NOT DROPPING BELOW 81
DEGREES. ONCE AGAIN...LOCAL RADARS ARE VOID OF PRECIPITATION ECHOES
IN OUR REGION. SURFACE WISE...A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDS
ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...WITH AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE (1003 MB) ON THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. ACROSS OUR
MARINE DISTRICT...WINDS ARE VARIABLE BUT LEANING TOWARD EAST
SOUTHEAST AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. OTHERWISE...OUR EVENING
SOUNDING REVEALS MOISTURE CONFINED TO BETWEEN (850 AND 800 MB) WITH
A 2 DEGREE INVERSION AT THE TOP OF THIS LAYER. WINDS VEER FROM EAST
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST...BEFORE INCREASING APPRECIABLY BEGINNING AT
850 MB.

.SHORT TERM (OVERNIGHT)...
OUR AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SHARP AND DEEP
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 18 HOURS.
MEANWHILE...EXPECT THE ISENTROPIC LIFT JUST BELOW THE 310 K SURFACE
TO SHUT DOWN LEAVING MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AND INCREASE TO 10 TO PERHAPS 15
MPH. WITH THAT SAID...SEE NO REASON TO STRAY FROM ONLY DIME POPS
WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING NEAR 80 DEGREES.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO MOVING EAST
NORTHEASTWARD...VARIABLE WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS SHOULD BECOMING
MOSTLY SOUTH AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON MOST KEYS COASTAL
WATERS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL AT THE EYW AND MTH TERMINALS. A STRATOCUMULUS LAYER
BASED AROUND 060 WILL ERODE BY SUNRISE. A CLOUD LINE BASED AT 020
WILL ONCE AGAIN FORM ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...EXPECT HAZY/SMOKEY SKIES EMANATING FROM CUBAN
AGRICULTURAL FIRES TO PERSIST....VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS NOT EXPECTED.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR BOTH TERMINALS ARE LOW THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLIMATE...
IN 1937...THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 63F WAS
RECORDED AT KEY WEST. RECORD TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN KEPT SINCE 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...APA
AVIATION.............................CR
DATA ACQUISITION.....................BF

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 271819
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
220 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS
OVER LAND ARE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. C-MAN WINDS...ON
AVERAGE...ARE SOUTH NEAR 10 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID
80S TO THE LOWER 90S.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO TONIGHT...BEFORE MOVING IN A GENERAL EASTWARD DIRECTION
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER THE PANHANDLE OF
FLORIDA WEDNESDAY. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD PARALLEL THE
SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES
IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST SHOULD BE HIGHEST
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AND ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
A COLD FRONT MAY PASS THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS THURSDAY OR THURSDAY
NIGHT. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST CENTRAL UNITED STATES
WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FRIDAY.
THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BEFORE
ENTERING THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN SATURDAY NIGHT. AN ATLANTIC
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ON ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES EXPECTED TONIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ON ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS
THURSDAY DUE TO SUSTAINED WEST SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
SUSTAINED WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE ON ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT. SUSTAINED
NORTHWEST TO NORTH SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ON
ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY
HEADLINES EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 28/18Z...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH EYW
AND MTH. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION MAY
DEVELOP AFTER ABOUT 28/03Z...AND MOVE FROM ABOUT 190/15KT...PERHAPS
REACHING THE VICINITY OF EITHER EYW AND MTH. HOWEVER...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT INCLUSION IN ANY TERMINAL
FORECAST GROUPS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LOW TEMPERATURE SO FAR TODAY AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
IS 81 DEGREES. THE TEMPERATURE AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
SHOULD NOT DROP BELOW 81 DEGREES BEFORE MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS WOULD
SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR WARMEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE EVER MEASURED
IN KEY WEST ON APRIL 27TH. THE CURRENT DAILY RECORD FOR WARMEST
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED IN KEY WEST ON APRIL 27TH IS 80
DEGREES...INITIALLY ESTABLISHED IN 1908 AND MOST RECENTLY OBSERVED
IN 1997. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  80 88 78 87 / 20 30 40 50
MARATHON  81 91 78 88 / 20 30 40 50

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION.............................KASPER
DATA ACQUISITION.....................FLING

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 271429
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1030 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES. SKIES OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN
ARE PARTLY CLOUDY. WINDS OVER LAND ARE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE SOUTHWEST TO WEST NEAR 10 KNOTS.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

.SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON)...
IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
EXTEND ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS TODAY. IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON. THE 12Z KKEY
SOUNDING IS VERY UNSTABLE AND MOIST FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH A
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE JUST ABOVE ONE AND ONE HALF OF AN INCH.
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONSTANT THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE
ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION...LACK OF AN APPARENT CONVECTIVE TRIGGER WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR NO MORE THAN DIME POPS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. SUSTAINED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS OF
15 TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ON ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY.
SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST TO WEST SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE ON ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SUSTAINED WEST
TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ON ALL
KEYS COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SUSTAINED NORTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ON ALL KEYS COASTAL
WATERS FRIDAY. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES EXPECTED FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 28/12Z...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH EYW
AND MTH. LOCALLY REDUCED VISIBILITY TO 6SM IN HAZE MAY OCCUR AT ANY
TIME. HOWEVER...PREVAILING VISIBILITIES AT EYW AND MTH ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ABOVE 6SM.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LOW TEMPERATURE SO FAR TODAY AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
IS 81 DEGREES. THE TEMPERATURE AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
SHOULD NOT DROP BELOW 81 DEGREES BEFORE MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS WOULD
SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR WARMEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE EVER MEASURED
IN KEY WEST ON APRIL 27TH. THE CURRENT DAILY RECORD FOR WARMEST
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED IN KEY WEST ON APRIL 27TH IS 80
DEGREES...INITIALLY ESTABLISHED IN 1908 AND MOST RECENTLY OBSERVED IN
1997. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION.............................KASPER
DATA ACQUISITION.....................MP

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 271429
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1030 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES. SKIES OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN
ARE PARTLY CLOUDY. WINDS OVER LAND ARE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE SOUTHWEST TO WEST NEAR 10 KNOTS.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

.SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON)...
IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
EXTEND ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS TODAY. IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON. THE 12Z KKEY
SOUNDING IS VERY UNSTABLE AND MOIST FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH A
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE JUST ABOVE ONE AND ONE HALF OF AN INCH.
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONSTANT THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE
ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION...LACK OF AN APPARENT CONVECTIVE TRIGGER WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR NO MORE THAN DIME POPS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. SUSTAINED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS OF
15 TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ON ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY.
SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST TO WEST SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE ON ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SUSTAINED WEST
TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ON ALL
KEYS COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SUSTAINED NORTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ON ALL KEYS COASTAL
WATERS FRIDAY. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES EXPECTED FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 28/12Z...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH EYW
AND MTH. LOCALLY REDUCED VISIBILITY TO 6SM IN HAZE MAY OCCUR AT ANY
TIME. HOWEVER...PREVAILING VISIBILITIES AT EYW AND MTH ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ABOVE 6SM.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LOW TEMPERATURE SO FAR TODAY AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
IS 81 DEGREES. THE TEMPERATURE AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
SHOULD NOT DROP BELOW 81 DEGREES BEFORE MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS WOULD
SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR WARMEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE EVER MEASURED
IN KEY WEST ON APRIL 27TH. THE CURRENT DAILY RECORD FOR WARMEST
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED IN KEY WEST ON APRIL 27TH IS 80
DEGREES...INITIALLY ESTABLISHED IN 1908 AND MOST RECENTLY OBSERVED IN
1997. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION.............................KASPER
DATA ACQUISITION.....................MP

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 270759
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
359 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS FEW CLOUDS MOVED OVER THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH BRIEF LOW CEILINGS AT AROUND 2500 FT.
HOWEVER...THE RADAR STAYED CLEAR OF RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES REMAINED
ABOVE 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...CRUSHING ANOTHER
WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORD YESTERDAY. AS OF 4 AM...THE LOW AT
THE KEY WEST AIRPORT HAS DIPPED TO 82 DEGREES AND TO 81 DEGREES AT
THE MARATHON AIRPORT. WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS CUBA THIS PAST WEEKEND
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TODAY AND A LOW EXITING THROUGH TEXAS
WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG ITS COAST. THEREFORE OUR AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYSTEMS KEEPING OUR WINDS VARIABLE TODAY AND TONIGHT AND
MOSTLY QUIET WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES ARE ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AT MARATHON.

.TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY...AS THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE
GULF COAST AND SHIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON
WEDNESDAY...IT WILL BRING UNSTABLE CONDITIONS TO OUR FORECAST AREA.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
HIGHER CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO MAJOR CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST AS WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE ON FRIDAY. IT ALSO MEANS THAT A RELIEF TO THE
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE FROM WEDNESDAY ON...SLOWLY DECREASING ON FRIDAY.


&&

.MARINE...VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE THE NORM TODAY ACROSS OUR WATERS AS
WE REMAIN BETWEEN TWO PRESSURE SYSTEMS. THEN AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVES
EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM TUESDAY ON...WINDS WILL PICK UP TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN SLOWLY VEERING
THROUGH THE DAY AND INCREASING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY. CAUTION FOR SMALL CRAFT MIGHT BE REQUIRED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR WATERS. ACTIVE WEATHER IS ALSO EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR CEILING ARE POSSIBLE AT THE EYW AND MTH TERMINALS
EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT THOSE TERMINALS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS...AND THEN BECOME VARIABLE
AGAIN THIS EVENING.

&&

.CLIMATE...ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1941...2.20 INCHES
OF RAIN WAS RECORDED IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RAINFALL RECORD FOR
APRIL 27 IN KEY WEST. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....04

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 270759
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
359 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS FEW CLOUDS MOVED OVER THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH BRIEF LOW CEILINGS AT AROUND 2500 FT.
HOWEVER...THE RADAR STAYED CLEAR OF RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES REMAINED
ABOVE 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...CRUSHING ANOTHER
WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORD YESTERDAY. AS OF 4 AM...THE LOW AT
THE KEY WEST AIRPORT HAS DIPPED TO 82 DEGREES AND TO 81 DEGREES AT
THE MARATHON AIRPORT. WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS CUBA THIS PAST WEEKEND
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TODAY AND A LOW EXITING THROUGH TEXAS
WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG ITS COAST. THEREFORE OUR AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYSTEMS KEEPING OUR WINDS VARIABLE TODAY AND TONIGHT AND
MOSTLY QUIET WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES ARE ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AT MARATHON.

.TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY...AS THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE
GULF COAST AND SHIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON
WEDNESDAY...IT WILL BRING UNSTABLE CONDITIONS TO OUR FORECAST AREA.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
HIGHER CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO MAJOR CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST AS WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE ON FRIDAY. IT ALSO MEANS THAT A RELIEF TO THE
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE FROM WEDNESDAY ON...SLOWLY DECREASING ON FRIDAY.


&&

.MARINE...VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE THE NORM TODAY ACROSS OUR WATERS AS
WE REMAIN BETWEEN TWO PRESSURE SYSTEMS. THEN AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVES
EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM TUESDAY ON...WINDS WILL PICK UP TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN SLOWLY VEERING
THROUGH THE DAY AND INCREASING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY. CAUTION FOR SMALL CRAFT MIGHT BE REQUIRED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR WATERS. ACTIVE WEATHER IS ALSO EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR CEILING ARE POSSIBLE AT THE EYW AND MTH TERMINALS
EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT THOSE TERMINALS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS...AND THEN BECOME VARIABLE
AGAIN THIS EVENING.

&&

.CLIMATE...ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1941...2.20 INCHES
OF RAIN WAS RECORDED IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RAINFALL RECORD FOR
APRIL 27 IN KEY WEST. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....04

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 270228
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1023 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

...WARM TEMPERATURE RECORDS WERE BROKEN AND TIED IN KEY WEST
   TODAY...

.DISCUSSION...KEEPING IN MIND THAT THE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURE IN
KEY WEST IS 83 DEGREES FOR THIS DATE. THE LOW TEMPERATURE THIS
MORNING WAS A SULTRY AND EXTREMELY MUGGY 81 DEGREES WHICH BROKE THE
MAX/MIN RECORD...WHILE OUR HIGH TEMPERATURE REACHED 90 DEGREES WHICH
TIED THE RECORD FOR THE DATE. THE MEAN TEMPERATURE (HIGH + LOW)DIVIDED BY 2)
WAS 86 DEGREES WHICH IS "8" DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE DAY. OUTSIDE
OF TEMPERATURES...SKIES ARE CLEAR WITH MOSTLY WEST WINDS OF AROUND 10 MPH
ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN. MEANWHILE...LOCAL RADARS ARE ABSOLUTELY VOID OF
PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA. OTHERWISE...OUR SOUNDING
REVEALS SCANT MOISTURE WITH SEVERAL SHALLOW STABLE LAYERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS
VEER WESTERLY QUICKLY AT JUST ABOVE 850 MB...THEN INCREASING
SUBSTANTIALLY ABOVE.

.SHORT TERM (OVERNIGHT)...THE ROBUST AND SHARP ANTICYCLONE CENTERED
OVER THE ARCHIPELAGO OF CUBA WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER ELEMENTS...WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF RAINFALL ALONG WITH
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE... WITH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE HOLDING ON THE FLORIDA
STRAITS AND NORTH COAST OF THE ISLAND OF CUBA...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS SHOULD PREVAIL ON MOST OF KEYS COASTAL
WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL AT THE EYW AND MTH TERMINALS. LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO
NEAR 10 KNOTS BEFORE SUNRISE. ELEVATED LAYERS (AROUND 5 KFT) OF
HAZE/SMOKE EMANATING FROM SEASONAL CUBAN FIRES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS BELOW VFR ARE NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
IN 1983...THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 64F WAS LAST RECORDED
AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. TEMPERATURE RECORDS HAVE BEEN
KEPT SINCE 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...APA
AVIATION.............................CR
DATA ACQUISITION.....................BF

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 270228
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1023 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

...WARM TEMPERATURE RECORDS WERE BROKEN AND TIED IN KEY WEST
   TODAY...

.DISCUSSION...KEEPING IN MIND THAT THE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURE IN
KEY WEST IS 83 DEGREES FOR THIS DATE. THE LOW TEMPERATURE THIS
MORNING WAS A SULTRY AND EXTREMELY MUGGY 81 DEGREES WHICH BROKE THE
MAX/MIN RECORD...WHILE OUR HIGH TEMPERATURE REACHED 90 DEGREES WHICH
TIED THE RECORD FOR THE DATE. THE MEAN TEMPERATURE (HIGH + LOW)DIVIDED BY 2)
WAS 86 DEGREES WHICH IS "8" DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE DAY. OUTSIDE
OF TEMPERATURES...SKIES ARE CLEAR WITH MOSTLY WEST WINDS OF AROUND 10 MPH
ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN. MEANWHILE...LOCAL RADARS ARE ABSOLUTELY VOID OF
PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA. OTHERWISE...OUR SOUNDING
REVEALS SCANT MOISTURE WITH SEVERAL SHALLOW STABLE LAYERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS
VEER WESTERLY QUICKLY AT JUST ABOVE 850 MB...THEN INCREASING
SUBSTANTIALLY ABOVE.

.SHORT TERM (OVERNIGHT)...THE ROBUST AND SHARP ANTICYCLONE CENTERED
OVER THE ARCHIPELAGO OF CUBA WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER ELEMENTS...WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF RAINFALL ALONG WITH
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE... WITH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE HOLDING ON THE FLORIDA
STRAITS AND NORTH COAST OF THE ISLAND OF CUBA...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS SHOULD PREVAIL ON MOST OF KEYS COASTAL
WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL AT THE EYW AND MTH TERMINALS. LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO
NEAR 10 KNOTS BEFORE SUNRISE. ELEVATED LAYERS (AROUND 5 KFT) OF
HAZE/SMOKE EMANATING FROM SEASONAL CUBAN FIRES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS BELOW VFR ARE NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
IN 1983...THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 64F WAS LAST RECORDED
AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. TEMPERATURE RECORDS HAVE BEEN
KEPT SINCE 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...APA
AVIATION.............................CR
DATA ACQUISITION.....................BF

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 261853
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
253 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND
CUBA...WHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD OFF OF
THE ATLANTIC COAST. AS A RESULT...SURFACE WINDS ARE MODERATE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE KEYS. THIS SOMEWHAT FASTER FLOW TODAY HAS
BROUGHT DEW POINTS UP INTO THE UPPER 70S...WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. DEEP LAYERED RIDGING REMAINS CENTERED OVER
CUBA...AND CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE KEYS TO ALL BUT EXTINGUISH LOW LEVEL
CLOUD FORMATION.

SHORT TERM - SURFACE RIDGING OVER CUBA AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL
RETREAT EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...WHILE PRESSURE FALLS OVER
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT...AND LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE ON MONDAY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL REMAIN SLIM THROUGH THIS PERIOD...BUT TREND UPWARDS AS
THE LOWER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
MOISTURE WILL PERSIST.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE HEADING INTO MID WEEK...AS THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO CONSOLIDATES AS IT MOVES EAST
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE GULF COAST
STATES. THE JET ENTRANCE REGION IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE A LOWER LEVEL MOIST AND CONFLUENT SWATH
SWINGS SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE
POPS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND REFINE AS THE PARTICULARS
BECOME CLEARER. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST...THEN VEER AROUND SOUTHWEST TO WEST AS THE LOW PASSES
NORTH OF OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WARM TRAJECTORY WILL KEEP TEMPS
AND DEW POINTS ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWEST TOWARDS WEEKS END AS THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW MOVES OUT TO SEA...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. EXPECT POPS TO DROP TO
SLIGHT...WITH TEMPS TRENDING NEAR NORMAL AND DEW POINTS SLIDING INTO
THE 60S.

&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE WEST WINDS WILL TREND DOWNWARDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS
A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS CUBA AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN RETREATS
EASTWARD AND PRESSURE FALLS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AS THE LOW
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO CONSOLIDATES AND MIGRATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES...WINDS WILL FIRM UP OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST...THEN
GRADUALLY VEER WEST LATE WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL VEER FURTHER NORTHWEST
TOWARDS WEEKS END AS THE LOW MOVES OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC...AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH. THERE IS A CHANCE CAUTIONS WILL BE
REQUIRED AROUND WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC STATES. A WET PERIOD IS EXPECTED
AROUND THIS SAME TIME...ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHWEST FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS VEERING TO NORTHWEST THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL SLOWLY RETURN TO SOUTHWEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  81  88  80  87 / -  10 20 30
MARATHON  81  90  79  90 / -  10 20 30

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....DEVANAS
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 261853
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
253 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND
CUBA...WHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD OFF OF
THE ATLANTIC COAST. AS A RESULT...SURFACE WINDS ARE MODERATE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE KEYS. THIS SOMEWHAT FASTER FLOW TODAY HAS
BROUGHT DEW POINTS UP INTO THE UPPER 70S...WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. DEEP LAYERED RIDGING REMAINS CENTERED OVER
CUBA...AND CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE KEYS TO ALL BUT EXTINGUISH LOW LEVEL
CLOUD FORMATION.

SHORT TERM - SURFACE RIDGING OVER CUBA AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL
RETREAT EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...WHILE PRESSURE FALLS OVER
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT...AND LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE ON MONDAY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL REMAIN SLIM THROUGH THIS PERIOD...BUT TREND UPWARDS AS
THE LOWER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
MOISTURE WILL PERSIST.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE HEADING INTO MID WEEK...AS THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO CONSOLIDATES AS IT MOVES EAST
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE GULF COAST
STATES. THE JET ENTRANCE REGION IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE A LOWER LEVEL MOIST AND CONFLUENT SWATH
SWINGS SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE
POPS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND REFINE AS THE PARTICULARS
BECOME CLEARER. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST...THEN VEER AROUND SOUTHWEST TO WEST AS THE LOW PASSES
NORTH OF OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WARM TRAJECTORY WILL KEEP TEMPS
AND DEW POINTS ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWEST TOWARDS WEEKS END AS THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW MOVES OUT TO SEA...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. EXPECT POPS TO DROP TO
SLIGHT...WITH TEMPS TRENDING NEAR NORMAL AND DEW POINTS SLIDING INTO
THE 60S.

&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE WEST WINDS WILL TREND DOWNWARDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS
A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS CUBA AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN RETREATS
EASTWARD AND PRESSURE FALLS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AS THE LOW
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO CONSOLIDATES AND MIGRATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES...WINDS WILL FIRM UP OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST...THEN
GRADUALLY VEER WEST LATE WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL VEER FURTHER NORTHWEST
TOWARDS WEEKS END AS THE LOW MOVES OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC...AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH. THERE IS A CHANCE CAUTIONS WILL BE
REQUIRED AROUND WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC STATES. A WET PERIOD IS EXPECTED
AROUND THIS SAME TIME...ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHWEST FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS VEERING TO NORTHWEST THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL SLOWLY RETURN TO SOUTHWEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  81  88  80  87 / -  10 20 30
MARATHON  81  90  79  90 / -  10 20 30

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....DEVANAS
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 261853
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
253 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND
CUBA...WHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD OFF OF
THE ATLANTIC COAST. AS A RESULT...SURFACE WINDS ARE MODERATE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE KEYS. THIS SOMEWHAT FASTER FLOW TODAY HAS
BROUGHT DEW POINTS UP INTO THE UPPER 70S...WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. DEEP LAYERED RIDGING REMAINS CENTERED OVER
CUBA...AND CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE KEYS TO ALL BUT EXTINGUISH LOW LEVEL
CLOUD FORMATION.

SHORT TERM - SURFACE RIDGING OVER CUBA AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL
RETREAT EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...WHILE PRESSURE FALLS OVER
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT...AND LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE ON MONDAY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL REMAIN SLIM THROUGH THIS PERIOD...BUT TREND UPWARDS AS
THE LOWER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
MOISTURE WILL PERSIST.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE HEADING INTO MID WEEK...AS THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO CONSOLIDATES AS IT MOVES EAST
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE GULF COAST
STATES. THE JET ENTRANCE REGION IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE A LOWER LEVEL MOIST AND CONFLUENT SWATH
SWINGS SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE
POPS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND REFINE AS THE PARTICULARS
BECOME CLEARER. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST...THEN VEER AROUND SOUTHWEST TO WEST AS THE LOW PASSES
NORTH OF OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WARM TRAJECTORY WILL KEEP TEMPS
AND DEW POINTS ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWEST TOWARDS WEEKS END AS THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW MOVES OUT TO SEA...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. EXPECT POPS TO DROP TO
SLIGHT...WITH TEMPS TRENDING NEAR NORMAL AND DEW POINTS SLIDING INTO
THE 60S.

&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE WEST WINDS WILL TREND DOWNWARDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS
A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS CUBA AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN RETREATS
EASTWARD AND PRESSURE FALLS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AS THE LOW
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO CONSOLIDATES AND MIGRATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES...WINDS WILL FIRM UP OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST...THEN
GRADUALLY VEER WEST LATE WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL VEER FURTHER NORTHWEST
TOWARDS WEEKS END AS THE LOW MOVES OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC...AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH. THERE IS A CHANCE CAUTIONS WILL BE
REQUIRED AROUND WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC STATES. A WET PERIOD IS EXPECTED
AROUND THIS SAME TIME...ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHWEST FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS VEERING TO NORTHWEST THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL SLOWLY RETURN TO SOUTHWEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  81  88  80  87 / -  10 20 30
MARATHON  81  90  79  90 / -  10 20 30

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....DEVANAS
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 261853
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
253 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND
CUBA...WHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD OFF OF
THE ATLANTIC COAST. AS A RESULT...SURFACE WINDS ARE MODERATE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE KEYS. THIS SOMEWHAT FASTER FLOW TODAY HAS
BROUGHT DEW POINTS UP INTO THE UPPER 70S...WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. DEEP LAYERED RIDGING REMAINS CENTERED OVER
CUBA...AND CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE KEYS TO ALL BUT EXTINGUISH LOW LEVEL
CLOUD FORMATION.

SHORT TERM - SURFACE RIDGING OVER CUBA AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL
RETREAT EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...WHILE PRESSURE FALLS OVER
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT...AND LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE ON MONDAY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL REMAIN SLIM THROUGH THIS PERIOD...BUT TREND UPWARDS AS
THE LOWER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
MOISTURE WILL PERSIST.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE HEADING INTO MID WEEK...AS THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO CONSOLIDATES AS IT MOVES EAST
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE GULF COAST
STATES. THE JET ENTRANCE REGION IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE A LOWER LEVEL MOIST AND CONFLUENT SWATH
SWINGS SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE
POPS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND REFINE AS THE PARTICULARS
BECOME CLEARER. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST...THEN VEER AROUND SOUTHWEST TO WEST AS THE LOW PASSES
NORTH OF OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WARM TRAJECTORY WILL KEEP TEMPS
AND DEW POINTS ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWEST TOWARDS WEEKS END AS THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW MOVES OUT TO SEA...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. EXPECT POPS TO DROP TO
SLIGHT...WITH TEMPS TRENDING NEAR NORMAL AND DEW POINTS SLIDING INTO
THE 60S.

&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE WEST WINDS WILL TREND DOWNWARDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS
A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS CUBA AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN RETREATS
EASTWARD AND PRESSURE FALLS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AS THE LOW
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO CONSOLIDATES AND MIGRATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES...WINDS WILL FIRM UP OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST...THEN
GRADUALLY VEER WEST LATE WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL VEER FURTHER NORTHWEST
TOWARDS WEEKS END AS THE LOW MOVES OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC...AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH. THERE IS A CHANCE CAUTIONS WILL BE
REQUIRED AROUND WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC STATES. A WET PERIOD IS EXPECTED
AROUND THIS SAME TIME...ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHWEST FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS VEERING TO NORTHWEST THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL SLOWLY RETURN TO SOUTHWEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  81  88  80  87 / -  10 20 30
MARATHON  81  90  79  90 / -  10 20 30

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....DEVANAS
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 261431
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1031 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND LOW
PRESSURE MIGRATING EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND
THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC. THIS IS DRIVING GENTLE SOUTHWEST BREEZES
ACROSS THE KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. DEEP LAYERED RIDGING REMAINS
ANCHORED ACROSS CUBA. STABLE CONDITIONS IS PREVENTING ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY FROM DEVELOPING...AND SKIES ARE SUNNY.

SHORT TERM UPDATE (THIS AFTERNOON) - WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP
SLIGHTLY AND VEER MORE WESTERLY AS SOUTH FLORIDA WARMS UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMS
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90...AND DEW POINTS WELL UP IN
THE UPPER 70S. ONLY A SMALL WIND ADJUSTMENT WILL BE MADE IN A MORNING
UPDATE.

&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE WESTERLY...AND STRENGTHEN A
FEW KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK RIDGING REMAINS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
STRAITS AND SOUTH FLORIDA WARMS UP. WINDS WILL VEER THE MOST ON
WATERS NEAR AND WEST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE IN
THE MORNING MARINE UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST FROM
5 TO 10 KNOTS VEERING TO NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....DEVANAS
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 261431
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1031 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND LOW
PRESSURE MIGRATING EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND
THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC. THIS IS DRIVING GENTLE SOUTHWEST BREEZES
ACROSS THE KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. DEEP LAYERED RIDGING REMAINS
ANCHORED ACROSS CUBA. STABLE CONDITIONS IS PREVENTING ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY FROM DEVELOPING...AND SKIES ARE SUNNY.

SHORT TERM UPDATE (THIS AFTERNOON) - WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP
SLIGHTLY AND VEER MORE WESTERLY AS SOUTH FLORIDA WARMS UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMS
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90...AND DEW POINTS WELL UP IN
THE UPPER 70S. ONLY A SMALL WIND ADJUSTMENT WILL BE MADE IN A MORNING
UPDATE.

&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE WESTERLY...AND STRENGTHEN A
FEW KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK RIDGING REMAINS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
STRAITS AND SOUTH FLORIDA WARMS UP. WINDS WILL VEER THE MOST ON
WATERS NEAR AND WEST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE IN
THE MORNING MARINE UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST FROM
5 TO 10 KNOTS VEERING TO NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....DEVANAS
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 261431
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1031 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND LOW
PRESSURE MIGRATING EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND
THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC. THIS IS DRIVING GENTLE SOUTHWEST BREEZES
ACROSS THE KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. DEEP LAYERED RIDGING REMAINS
ANCHORED ACROSS CUBA. STABLE CONDITIONS IS PREVENTING ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY FROM DEVELOPING...AND SKIES ARE SUNNY.

SHORT TERM UPDATE (THIS AFTERNOON) - WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP
SLIGHTLY AND VEER MORE WESTERLY AS SOUTH FLORIDA WARMS UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMS
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90...AND DEW POINTS WELL UP IN
THE UPPER 70S. ONLY A SMALL WIND ADJUSTMENT WILL BE MADE IN A MORNING
UPDATE.

&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE WESTERLY...AND STRENGTHEN A
FEW KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK RIDGING REMAINS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
STRAITS AND SOUTH FLORIDA WARMS UP. WINDS WILL VEER THE MOST ON
WATERS NEAR AND WEST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE IN
THE MORNING MARINE UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST FROM
5 TO 10 KNOTS VEERING TO NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....DEVANAS
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 261431
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1031 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND LOW
PRESSURE MIGRATING EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND
THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC. THIS IS DRIVING GENTLE SOUTHWEST BREEZES
ACROSS THE KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. DEEP LAYERED RIDGING REMAINS
ANCHORED ACROSS CUBA. STABLE CONDITIONS IS PREVENTING ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY FROM DEVELOPING...AND SKIES ARE SUNNY.

SHORT TERM UPDATE (THIS AFTERNOON) - WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP
SLIGHTLY AND VEER MORE WESTERLY AS SOUTH FLORIDA WARMS UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMS
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90...AND DEW POINTS WELL UP IN
THE UPPER 70S. ONLY A SMALL WIND ADJUSTMENT WILL BE MADE IN A MORNING
UPDATE.

&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE WESTERLY...AND STRENGTHEN A
FEW KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK RIDGING REMAINS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
STRAITS AND SOUTH FLORIDA WARMS UP. WINDS WILL VEER THE MOST ON
WATERS NEAR AND WEST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE IN
THE MORNING MARINE UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST FROM
5 TO 10 KNOTS VEERING TO NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....DEVANAS
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 260738
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
338 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING IR SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE
KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. WITH A LIGHT SOUTHEAST
BREEZE...TEMPERATURES REMAIN JUST ABOVE 80 DEGREES AT ALL THE
REPORTING STATIONS IN THE ISLAND CHAIN. KBYX DOPPLER RADAR IS VOID OF
PRECIPITATION ECHOES...BUT HAS HAD A STEADY NORTHBOUND STREAM OF
BIOLOGICAL RETURNS SINCE THE SUN SET YESTERDAY.

A LOW AMPLITUDE BUT DEEP RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTH FLORIDA/FLORIDA KEYS IN THE NEAR TERM.
DECIDED TO TRIM OUR GRIDDED POP BACK FOR TODAY...AS THE LATEST
GRAPHICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES A PERIOD OF DRYING SUBSIDENCE AND
INHIBITED PROFILE. THIS BASICALLY PULLS THE MENTION OF RAIN FOR
TODAY. ALSO TRIMMED OUR POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION TO JUST 10
PERCENT FOR TONIGHT...AND THAT MAY EVEN TURN OUT TO BE GENEROUS.
HOWEVER...IT WILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID IN THE LOWEST LAYERS...SO
SENSIBLE CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE MUCH DIFFERENT THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS
IN THE KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO A DIVING TROUGH...AND THEN SLOWLY BUT
STEADILY TRANSLATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE
FOLLOWING TWO DAYS. A TRAILING FRONT CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS THURSDAY AS THIS LOW ACCELERATES
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS NOW APPEAR TO
BE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SO...HAVE
RAISED OUR PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION BY ANOTHER 10
PERCENT FOR THOSE TWO PERIODS. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST GFS
TABULAR MOS NUMBERS. RAIN CHANCES THEN DECLINE THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF THE WORK WEEK AS DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER CONDITIONS SLIDE INTO
OUR AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT GRIDDED WEATHER ADJUSTMENTS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE LATER PERIODS OF THE UPCOMING FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
A GENTLE TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE BREEZE WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS AN AXIS OF HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE ALIGNS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE KEYS. SOME VARIABILITY OF THE WIND DIRECTION RETURNS
WITH THE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK...WELL AHEAD OF
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. MODERATING
SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST/WEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AS THE LOW PRESSURE PULLS THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO...AND EVENTUALLY PULLS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY THURSDAY. NO
ADVISORY OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES FOR SMALL CRAFT ARE EXPECTED FOR ANY
PERIOD OF THE COMING FORECAST THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AT THE
EYW AND MTH TERMINALS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS
WILL VEER THROUGH THE DAY AND IS EXPECTED TO FLOW FROM THE WEST
LATER THIS EVENING. A CUMULUS CLOUD LINE BASED AT 020 WILL ATTEMPT
TO FORM IN THE LEE SIDE OF THE LOWER KEYS THIS AFTERNOON WITH NEAR
ZERO RAIN CHANCES FOR BOTH TERMINALS.

&&

.CLIMATE...IN 1991...IT WAS A WARM DAY IN KEY WEST. THE DAILY RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 90F AND THE DAILY RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE OF
80F WERE RECORDED. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST HAVE BEEN KEPT
SINCE 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  86  81  88  80 / -  10 20 30
MARATHON  93  81  90  79 / -  10 20 30

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........04
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 260738
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
338 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING IR SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE
KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. WITH A LIGHT SOUTHEAST
BREEZE...TEMPERATURES REMAIN JUST ABOVE 80 DEGREES AT ALL THE
REPORTING STATIONS IN THE ISLAND CHAIN. KBYX DOPPLER RADAR IS VOID OF
PRECIPITATION ECHOES...BUT HAS HAD A STEADY NORTHBOUND STREAM OF
BIOLOGICAL RETURNS SINCE THE SUN SET YESTERDAY.

A LOW AMPLITUDE BUT DEEP RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTH FLORIDA/FLORIDA KEYS IN THE NEAR TERM.
DECIDED TO TRIM OUR GRIDDED POP BACK FOR TODAY...AS THE LATEST
GRAPHICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES A PERIOD OF DRYING SUBSIDENCE AND
INHIBITED PROFILE. THIS BASICALLY PULLS THE MENTION OF RAIN FOR
TODAY. ALSO TRIMMED OUR POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION TO JUST 10
PERCENT FOR TONIGHT...AND THAT MAY EVEN TURN OUT TO BE GENEROUS.
HOWEVER...IT WILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID IN THE LOWEST LAYERS...SO
SENSIBLE CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE MUCH DIFFERENT THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS
IN THE KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO A DIVING TROUGH...AND THEN SLOWLY BUT
STEADILY TRANSLATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE
FOLLOWING TWO DAYS. A TRAILING FRONT CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS THURSDAY AS THIS LOW ACCELERATES
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS NOW APPEAR TO
BE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SO...HAVE
RAISED OUR PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION BY ANOTHER 10
PERCENT FOR THOSE TWO PERIODS. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST GFS
TABULAR MOS NUMBERS. RAIN CHANCES THEN DECLINE THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF THE WORK WEEK AS DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER CONDITIONS SLIDE INTO
OUR AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT GRIDDED WEATHER ADJUSTMENTS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE LATER PERIODS OF THE UPCOMING FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
A GENTLE TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE BREEZE WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS AN AXIS OF HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE ALIGNS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE KEYS. SOME VARIABILITY OF THE WIND DIRECTION RETURNS
WITH THE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK...WELL AHEAD OF
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. MODERATING
SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST/WEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AS THE LOW PRESSURE PULLS THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO...AND EVENTUALLY PULLS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY THURSDAY. NO
ADVISORY OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES FOR SMALL CRAFT ARE EXPECTED FOR ANY
PERIOD OF THE COMING FORECAST THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AT THE
EYW AND MTH TERMINALS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS
WILL VEER THROUGH THE DAY AND IS EXPECTED TO FLOW FROM THE WEST
LATER THIS EVENING. A CUMULUS CLOUD LINE BASED AT 020 WILL ATTEMPT
TO FORM IN THE LEE SIDE OF THE LOWER KEYS THIS AFTERNOON WITH NEAR
ZERO RAIN CHANCES FOR BOTH TERMINALS.

&&

.CLIMATE...IN 1991...IT WAS A WARM DAY IN KEY WEST. THE DAILY RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 90F AND THE DAILY RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE OF
80F WERE RECORDED. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST HAVE BEEN KEPT
SINCE 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  86  81  88  80 / -  10 20 30
MARATHON  93  81  90  79 / -  10 20 30

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........04
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 260247
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1045 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA...SKIES ARE ABSOLUTELY CLEAR AND OF COURSE...
LOCAL RADARS ARE VOID OF ANY PRECIPITATION ECHOES. SURFACE WISE...A
A WEAK WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE LIES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS...RESULTING IN MOSTLY SOUTH WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS
ON OUR MARINE DISTRICT. OTHERWISE...OUR EVENING SOUNDING AN
ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS REACHING WELL INTO
THE TROPOSPHERE.

.SHORT TERM (OVERNIGHT)...A STRONG AND DEEP LAYERED ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED ALONG THE WEST CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA AND THE FLORIDA
STRAITS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WITH NO CHANCE OF RAINFALL FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A STEADY...ALBEIT LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WIND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 DEGREES...EXCEPT IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S IN THE LARGER INTERIOR LOCATIONS OF THE ISLAND CHAIN.

&&

.MARINE...WITH A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE LYING NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA AND
THE FLORIDA KEYS EXPECTED TO SAG INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS
OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH NEAR 10 KNOTS ON
MOST OF KEYS COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE EYW AND MTH
TERMINALS. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST NEAR
10 KNOTS TOMORROW MORNING. A CUMULUS CLOUD LINE BASED AT 020 WILL
ATTEMPT TO FORM IN THE LEE OF THE LOWER KEYS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
RAIN CHANCES FOR BOTH TERMINALS ARE NIL.



&&

.CLIMATE...
IN 2012...THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 64F WAS RECORDED IN
KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS HAVE BEEN KEPT SINCE 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...APA
AVIATION.............................CR
DATA ACQUISITION.....................MP

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 260247
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1045 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA...SKIES ARE ABSOLUTELY CLEAR AND OF COURSE...
LOCAL RADARS ARE VOID OF ANY PRECIPITATION ECHOES. SURFACE WISE...A
A WEAK WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE LIES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS...RESULTING IN MOSTLY SOUTH WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS
ON OUR MARINE DISTRICT. OTHERWISE...OUR EVENING SOUNDING AN
ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS REACHING WELL INTO
THE TROPOSPHERE.

.SHORT TERM (OVERNIGHT)...A STRONG AND DEEP LAYERED ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED ALONG THE WEST CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA AND THE FLORIDA
STRAITS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WITH NO CHANCE OF RAINFALL FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A STEADY...ALBEIT LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WIND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 DEGREES...EXCEPT IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S IN THE LARGER INTERIOR LOCATIONS OF THE ISLAND CHAIN.

&&

.MARINE...WITH A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE LYING NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA AND
THE FLORIDA KEYS EXPECTED TO SAG INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS
OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH NEAR 10 KNOTS ON
MOST OF KEYS COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE EYW AND MTH
TERMINALS. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST NEAR
10 KNOTS TOMORROW MORNING. A CUMULUS CLOUD LINE BASED AT 020 WILL
ATTEMPT TO FORM IN THE LEE OF THE LOWER KEYS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
RAIN CHANCES FOR BOTH TERMINALS ARE NIL.



&&

.CLIMATE...
IN 2012...THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 64F WAS RECORDED IN
KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS HAVE BEEN KEPT SINCE 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...APA
AVIATION.............................CR
DATA ACQUISITION.....................MP

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 260247
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1045 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA...SKIES ARE ABSOLUTELY CLEAR AND OF COURSE...
LOCAL RADARS ARE VOID OF ANY PRECIPITATION ECHOES. SURFACE WISE...A
A WEAK WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE LIES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS...RESULTING IN MOSTLY SOUTH WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS
ON OUR MARINE DISTRICT. OTHERWISE...OUR EVENING SOUNDING AN
ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS REACHING WELL INTO
THE TROPOSPHERE.

.SHORT TERM (OVERNIGHT)...A STRONG AND DEEP LAYERED ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED ALONG THE WEST CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA AND THE FLORIDA
STRAITS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WITH NO CHANCE OF RAINFALL FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A STEADY...ALBEIT LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WIND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 DEGREES...EXCEPT IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S IN THE LARGER INTERIOR LOCATIONS OF THE ISLAND CHAIN.

&&

.MARINE...WITH A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE LYING NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA AND
THE FLORIDA KEYS EXPECTED TO SAG INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS
OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH NEAR 10 KNOTS ON
MOST OF KEYS COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE EYW AND MTH
TERMINALS. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST NEAR
10 KNOTS TOMORROW MORNING. A CUMULUS CLOUD LINE BASED AT 020 WILL
ATTEMPT TO FORM IN THE LEE OF THE LOWER KEYS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
RAIN CHANCES FOR BOTH TERMINALS ARE NIL.



&&

.CLIMATE...
IN 2012...THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 64F WAS RECORDED IN
KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS HAVE BEEN KEPT SINCE 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...APA
AVIATION.............................CR
DATA ACQUISITION.....................MP

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