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000
FXUS62 KKEY 210028
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
828 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE STREAMING ACROSS THE KEYS AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS IS DUE TO COOLER AIR ADVECTING AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST...AND MOVING
ACROSS THE WARMER GULF WATERS. THE LOW IS SLOWLY HEADING NORTHEAST
TONIGHT. THE CLOUD LAYER IS VISIBLE FROM SATELLITE AND EXTENDS BACK
INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA. AS OF THIS DISCUSSION...THERE ARE NO RETURNS
SHOWING ON THE KBYX RADAR...AND WINDS ARE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO
NORTH 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS...AND 10 TO 15 KNOTS AT
THE C-MAN STATIONS AROUND THE ISLAND CHAIN.

.FORECAST...
WILL BE UPDATING THE FORECAST FOR CLOUD COVER DUE TO THE CLOUD DECK
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL MODERATE THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT BUT SINCE THE BACK YARD AT THE KEY WEST WFO IS
ALREADY DOWN TO 71...WOULD ANTICIPATE THAT A RANGE OF 68 TO 73 WOULD
BE THE BEST OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK
FOR WINDS TURNING A BIT MORE TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY. NO
RAIN IS EXPECTED UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN WE WILL ONLY SEE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. NO CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TO THE FORECAST IN
THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL TURN MORE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND RELAX ON MONDAY AS A
WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WHILE
SINKING SOUTHWARD. THERE WILL BE A RESIDUAL SWELL THROUGH TUESDAY
ALONG THE FLORIDA STRAITS EAST OF THE UPPER KEYS. THE CULPRIT IS THE
LONG DURATION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...A CLOUD LAYER IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AS
COOLER AIR MOVES SOUTHWARD FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND OVER THE
WARMER GULF WATERS. AS WINDS WEAKEN AND SHIFT A BIT MORE
NORTHERLY...THE CLOUD LAYER SHOULD BREAK UP. DO NOT HAVE MVFR IN THE
CURRENT TAF BUT WILL AMEND...IF NEEDED...IF CLOUD LAYER LOWERS
FURTHER.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...1930...2.60 INCHES OF RAIN
FELL IN KEY WEST ON APRIL 20TH. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR
RAINFALL IN KEY WEST...WHICH STILL STANDS 84 YEARS LATER. RAINFALL
RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/CLIMATE/AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BWC
DATA COLLECTION.............................MSB

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 201855
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
255 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN AND SURROUNDING
COASTAL WATERS THOUGH MORE DENSE CLOUD COVER IS FOUND ACROSS THE
NORTHERNMOST KEYS GULF MARINE ZONES. WINDS ARE NORTHWESTERLY ON THE
HIGH END OF THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. AN ASCAT PASS FROM THE MID
MORNING TIME PERIOD SHOWED A GRADUAL GRADIENT OF NEAR 10 KNOT WINDS
OVER THE DEEP GULF TO NEAR 15 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN STRAITS. TEMPERATURES HAVE SETTLED OUT IN THE UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE ISLANDS WITH A FEW DEGREES MORE WARMING POSSIBLE BY LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN GRADUALLY BEHIND
A PASSING TOUGH ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO...AND WILL REMAIN
ENTRENCHED THROUGH THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL
GRADUALLY CROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
THIS RIDGE GENERALLY LIGHT AND MESOSCALE DRIVEN WINDS WILL DOMINATE
THE FORECAST. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL PREVAIL AND SKIES WILL GRADUALLY
CLEAR ACROSS THE KEYS THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY BE
ON THE RISE THROUGH THE MID WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AND SHIFT TO THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY AS A POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT GIVES WAY TO
A LIGHT AND VARIABLE HIGH PRESSURE REGIME THROUGH THE BULK OF THE
WORK WEEK. RESIDUAL SWELL FROM THE NORTHERN GULF LOW SHOULD STILL BE
VISIBLE ON THE WESTERN WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT...AND A NORTHWESTERLY
ATLANTIC SWELL SHOULD BE VISIBLE ON THE EASTERN STRAITS THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER THIS AFTERNOON
AS DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DISTURBS THE THERMAL
ADVECTION. ANOTHER ROUND OF SLIGHTLY LOWER CIGS BASED AS LOW AS 025
WILL RETURN TO THE TERMINALS TONIGHT. MAINLY NORTHWEST TO NORTH
WINDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL BECOME NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...APRIL 20TH...ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS HISTORY...IN
1877...THE DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 89F WAS RECORDED...A
RECORD WHICH HAS HELD FOR 137 YEARS. TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN KEY WEST
DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........MSB
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....CLR
DATA COLLECTION.......PARKE

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 201500
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1100 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SKIES ARE VARIABLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN AND SURROUNDING
COASTAL WATERS...BUT GRADUALLY CLEARING. KBYX RADAR SHOWS NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ECHOES AT THIS TIME. WINDS ARE MOSTLY WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MORNING SOUNDING CAME IN WITH A
CONTINUED REDUCTION IN PWAT VALUES TO 0.66 INCHES...WHICH IS AROUND
50 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR... A STEEP INVERSION
WAS SEEN NEAR THE LCL AT AROUND AT 850 MB...WITH EXCESSIVELY DRY AIR
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES ARE GRADUALLY RISING THROUGH THE MID 70S. AND DEW
POINTS ARE HOVERING AROUND THE 60 DEGREE MARK.

.SHORT TERM...
VERY FEW CHANGES WERE REQUIRED FOR THIS UPDATE CYCLE IN THE FORECAST
GRIDS. WHILE A FEW AREAS MAY HOLD ON TO SLIGHTLY MORE DENSE CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL FOR EASTER AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE LATER PARTS OF THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE
WINDS CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARDS TO 10 KNOTS...OR POSSIBLY LESS BY
LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
WHILE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BENIGN ACROSS MUCH OF
THE COASTAL WATERS ZONES TODAY...A MESOSCALE-INDUCED COASTAL SURGE IS
A STRONG POSSIBILITY TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA MAINLAND. EXPECT THAT CAUTIONARY WORDING CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH A FEW HOURLY OBSERVATIONS IN THE FLORIDA BY AND EASTERN
HAWK CHANNEL ZONES...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MOSTLY SHORT LIVED AND
NEAR 15 KNOT WINDS SHOULD MOSTLY REPRESENT THE MAX OF MOST
OBSERVATIONS. A NORTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL BE MOST VISIBLE IN THE
WESTERN MOST PORTIONS OF OUR DEEP WATERS IN THE ATLANTIC AND GULF OF
MEXICO.

&&

.AVIATION...
BKN CIGS BASED AT 035 WILL PERSIST AT THE EYW AND MTH TERMINALS
THROUGH THE MORNING. CIGS WILL TEND TO SCATTER THIS AFTERNOON AS
DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DISTURBS THE THERMAL
ADVECTION. ANOTHER ROUND OF SLIGHTLY LOWER CIGS BASED AS LOW AS 030
WILL RETURN TO THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY
CROSSWIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AT
MTH...THEREAFTER...BOTH TERMINALS WILL HAVE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS OF
GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY WIND.

&&

.CLIMATE...APRIL 20TH...ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS HISTORY...IN
1877...THE DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 89F WAS RECORDED...A
RECORD WHICH HAS HELD FOR 137 YEARS. TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN KEY WEST
DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........MSB
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....CLR
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 201152 AAA
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
752 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.AVIATION...12Z/20TH...BKN TO OVC CIGS BASED AT 035 WILL PERSIST AT
THE EYW AND MTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE MORNING. CIGS WILL TEND TO
SCATTER THIS AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA DISTURBS THE THERMAL ADVECTION. ANOTHER ROUND OF SLIGHTLY
LOWER CIGS BASED AS LOW AS 030 WILL RETURN TO THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY CROSSWIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS
WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AT MTH...THEREAFTER...BOTH TERMINALS WILL
HAVE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS OF GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY WIND.

&&

$$

AVIATION...CLR

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 201005
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
600 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND 70 DEGREES
ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN. MEANWHILE...LOCAL RADARS ARE NOT DETECTING
ANY PRECIPITATION ECHOES. SURFACE WISE...LOW PRESSURE (1012 MB) IS
LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST...WHILE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS SPRAWLING SOUTHWARD INTO
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. ACROSS OUR MARINE
DISTRICT...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS RANGE FROM 11 KNOTS AT SOMBRERO
KEY LIGHT TO 18 KNOTS AT MOLASSES REEF.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A NEARLY STACKED AND DEEP CYCLONIC GYRE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST WILL TRANSLATE SLOWLY EAST
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SWING SOUTHEASTWARD AND THROUGH OUR AREA TONIGHT...WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ATTEMPTS
TO SPREAD EASTWARD AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK. PRECIPITATION WISE...LIMITED MOISTURE
WITH A FORMIDABLE STABLE LAYER VARYING BETWEEN 900 AND 850 MB WILL
PRECLUDE SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...DIME POPS WILL BE INSERTED MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO A NORTH TO
NORTHEAST STEERING FLOW PROVIDING THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS MIGRATING OFF THE SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLAND AND INTO OUR AREA.
OTHERWISE...NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS AROUND 80 DEGREES AND OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
A SPLIT MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE CONTINENTAL
UNITED STATES...WITH A FAIRLY ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW IN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM. GIVEN AN ABSENCE OF LARGE SCALE LIFT AND NO DISCERNIBLE LOW
LEVEL UNDULATIONS...CLIMO DIME POPS WILL BE RETAINED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURE WISE...A LOW LEVEL EASTERLY TRAJECTORY WILL
EVOLVE BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY...RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
TO PERHAPS UPPER 70S BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE TO FRESH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS
ADJACENT TO THE UPPER KEYS WILL SLACKEN APPRECIABLY BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
ELSEWHERE. THEREAFTER...LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WILL VARY FROM
NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FOR AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...HENCE...NO EXERCISE CAUTION OR ADVISORY HEADLINES WILL BE
NECESSARY ON ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON TERMINALS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE PREVAILING
VFR CEILINGS JUST ABOVE 3KFT THROUGH THE MORNING...BECOMING
SCATTERED IN THE AFTERNOON. AT 09Z AMENDMENT FOR KEY WEST...WILL PUT
A PREVAILING BROKEN AT 3500 FT IN THE TAF THROUGH MORNING...AND
AMEND AS NECESSARY IF CEILINGS DROP TO 3 KFT OR BELOW. SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  79  71  80  71 / 0 - - -
MARATHON  80  71  82  71 / 0 - - -

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........APA
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....AD

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 200216
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1020 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES
OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE PARTLY CLOUDY. WINDS OVER LAND ARE
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE NORTHWEST
NEAR 15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
MID 70S.

.SHORT TERM (OVERNIGHT)...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA
STRAITS WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THE 00Z KKEY SOUNDING IS
STABLE AND DRY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER
(PWAT) VALUE JUST ABOVE ONE INCH. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL DECREASE
OVERNIGHT. BY SUNRISE SUNDAY...PWAT VALUES WILL BE JUST ABOVE THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH. THE DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR A NEAR ZERO CHANCE OF RAIN OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE NORTHWEST TO NORTH BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ON ALL KEYS COASTAL
WATERS OVERNIGHT. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES EXPECTED
TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST
INTERNATIONAL AND MARATHON ISLAND TERMINALS THROUGH THE TERMINAL
FORECAST PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF ONSET OF MVFR CEILINGS DUE TO
LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS MOVING ACROSS THE TERMINALS...BUT WITH ZERO
CHANCE FOR RAIN. OTHERWISE...THROUGH AT LEAST 20/06Z...EXPECT
NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1934...THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST WAS 89 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON APRIL 19TH...A
RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 80 YEARS LATER. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY
WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION.............................BWC

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 191844
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
244 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT WEATHER SUMMARY -- ISOLATED SHOWERS CLEARED OUT OF THE
SERVICE AREA AROUND MIDDAY...AND AIR TEMPERATURES IN MOST ISLAND
COMMUNITIES HAVE BEEN STEADY IN THE LOWER 80S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING TO DROP A FEW DEGREES WITH
CURRENT READINGS COMING IN NEAR 70F. GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHWEST
BREEZES PREVAIL AT MOST STATIONS...SOUTH OF A WEAK...SLOW-MOVING LOW
PRESSURE AREA CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR THE FIRST COAST OF FLORIDA.

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS -- A FAIR...FINE...AND BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN IS
SETTING UP FOR THE NEXT WEEK. AN INITIAL SHORT-WAVE RIDGE WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY ZONAL FLOW...AND THEN BROAD RIDGING AGAIN ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NORTH AMERICA SUBTROPICS. AS A RESULT...LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE
WILL DOMINATE WITH INITIAL AIR TRAJECTORIES ROOTED IN DRIER
CONTINENTAL AIR. IN FACT...WE HAVE REDUCED RAIN CHANCES TO NEAR NIL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH ONLY SIGHT MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES
THEREAFTER AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER SLOWLY WARMS AND MOISTENS.
&&

.MARINE...
NO ADVISORIES AND NO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN
NORTH ATLANTIC TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THEREAFTER...AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA
PENINSULA...AND PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
19TH/18Z...GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY CROSSWINDS AT EYW AND MTH WILL
AVERAGE 15 TO 20 KNOTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...OR EARLY THIS EVENING.
WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES
WILL PRODUCE TEMPORARY STRATO-CU CIGS BASED AS LOW AS 020. THESE LOW
LEVEL CIGS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES
AT EITHER TERMINAL ARE NIL.
&&

.CLIMATE...
APRIL 19TH...ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN
1934...THE DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 89F WAS RECORDED...A
RECORD WHICH HAS HELD FOR 80 YEARS. TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN KEY WEST
DATE BACK TO 1872.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  72  81  72  82 / -  -  -  -
MARATHON  71  84  72  84 / -  -  -  -
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....CLR
DATA COLLECTION.......PARKE

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 191437
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1037 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT WEATHER SUMMARY -- LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SERVICE AREA ARE MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD...AND SHOULD END BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK TROUGH TRANSITS THE FLORIDA KEYS.
CURRENTLY...AIR TEMPERATURES IN MOST ISLAND COMMUNITIES ARE NEAR 80F
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. MODERATE BREEZES RANGE IN
DIRECTION FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST. A RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF JACKSONVILLE...
MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD BENEATH A LUMBERING CUT-OFF CYCLONE.

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS THIS AFTERNOON -- MUCH DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR WILL WORK IN AT LOW ALTITUDES GRADUALLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. RAIN CHANCES WILL DROP TO NIL BY 300 PM.
CURRENT FORECASTS ARE SOUND -- LATE-MORNING UPDATES SIMPLY WILL
ADJUST OR REMOVE TRANSITIONS AS APPROPRIATE.
&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO BEYOND FIVE FATHOMS WHERE NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES WILL
BE STRONGEST...IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE. ELSEWHERE...WINDS SHOULD NOT
BE QUITE AS HIGH...BUT AN UPWARD TREND IS LIKELY NONETHELESS THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER FLORIDA BAY AND THE WATERS ADJACENT TO
THE FLORIDA MAINLAND AND UPPER KEYS.
&&

.AVIATION...
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY CROSSWINDS AT EYW AND MTH WILL REACH AS HIGH AS
20 KNOTS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. THE WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES WILL PRODUCE TEMPORARY
STRATO-CU CIGS BASED AS LOW AS 015. THESE LOW LEVEL CIGS WILL
PERSIST TODAY AND TONIGHT.
&&

.CLIMATE...APRIL 19TH...ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER
HISTORY...IN 1934...THE DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 89F WAS
RECORDED...A RECORD WHICH HAS HELD FOR 80 YEARS. TEMPERATURE RECORDS
IN KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....CLR
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 191154 AAA
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
754 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.AVIATION...WESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL BY NOON TODAY AT BOTH
TERMINALS...BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AS WINDS
BECOME NORTHWESTERLY...GUSTY CROSSWINDS AT MTH WILL REACH AS HIGH AS
20 KNOTS. THE WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES WILL TEND TO PRODUCE TEMPORARY STRATO-CU CIGS
BASED AS LOW AS 018.

&&

$$

AVIATION...CLR

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 190944
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
544 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...LOCAL RADARS ARE DETECTING ONLY ISOLATED SMALL SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS. SURFACE WISE...AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE (1011 MB) IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA AND
THE ADJACENT NEARSHORE ATLANTIC AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GULF
WATERS...WITH AN ATTENDANT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DRAPED
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. ACROSS OUR
MARINE DISTRICT...SOUTH WINDS OF AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20
KNOTS ARE COMMON ON THE WATERS SURROUNDING THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
KEYS...WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WESTWARD.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
A VIGOROUS MID AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA TODAY...AND INTO THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN OFFSHORE OF
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTH FLORIDA WILL MIGRATE
EASTWARD...PULLING AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH THROUGH OUR REGION THIS
MORNING. GIVEN SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR AND MOST OF THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL ASCENT JUST TO OUR NORTH...CELLS WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN
THIS MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH.
HENCE...A VERY EARLY MORNING UPDATE WILL BE SENT TO LOWER THE
CURRENT HIGH CHANCE POPS INTO DIME POPS. IN WAKE OF THE EXITING AND
NEARLY STACKED CYCLONIC GYRE...EXTREMELY DRY AIR WITH A STABLE LAYER
FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 900 AND 850 MB WILL DOMINATE OUR FORECAST AREA
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE...ONLY GENEROUS NICKLE POPS WILL BE
RETAINED IN THE GRIDS...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MORE COMFORTABLE
AIR FILTERING INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A PREDOMINATE ZONAL MID AND UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL GOVERN
OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER...WITH CLIMO DIME POPS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO
EARLY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND CLEAR ALL KEYS
COASTAL WATERS BY LATE THIS MORNING. LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN WEST TO NORTHWEST AND SLOWLY INCREASE
BEHIND THE TROUGH. MODERATE TO FRESH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS THIS
EVENING WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH THE HIGHEST
WINDS PERSISTING ADJACENT TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS.
THEREAFTER...GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE MOSTLY NORTH WINDS EXPECTED
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS NEAR 2500 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH THE KEY WEST
AND MARATHON TERMINALS THROUGH NOON...BECOMING VFR CONDITIONS IN THE
AFTERNOON. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
MARATHON TERMINAL UNTIL SUNRISE...AND POSSIBLY AN HOUR OR TWO
THEREAFTER...WHICH MAY RESULT IN TEMPORARY MVFR VISIBILITIES.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING AT
BOTH TERMINALS...VEERING TO NORTHWESTERLY BY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  82  70  79  71 / 10 - - -
MARATHON  85  71  80  71 / 10 - - -

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........APA
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....AD

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 190251
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1051 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY...WITH AT LEAST A HIGH THIN VEIL OF CIRRUS
COVERING ALL PORTIONS OF THE SERVICE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE TEMPORARILY WANED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE SURROUNDING COASTAL
WATERS INCLUDING THE KEYS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR
80 STILL AT THIS HOUR...AND WINDS ARE MOSTLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. A FEW RANDOM HIGHER GUSTS
HAVE BEEN SEEN NAMELY AT SOMBRERO KEY LIGHT...BUT ARE OF A CURIOUS
NATURE AS PROXIMAL WINDS MEASUREMENT DO NOT REFLECT THE SAME
CONDITIONS. EVENING KEY SOUNDING CAME IN WITH A A VARIABLE MOISTURE
PROFILE...WITH DRY LAYERS AROUND 925 MB AND ABOVE 700 MB. SOME
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY WAS SEEN BETWEEN 900MB AND 700 MB...BUT
PROHIBITIVE DRY NEAR THE BASE OF THAT LEVEL IS CAPPING OFF ANY
SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY.

.SHORT TERM...
BOTTOM LINE IS THAT A MEASURABLE AMOUNT OF MOISTENING...AT LEAST IN
THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE REQUIRED IF WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT. MIMIC PWAT VALUES SHOW A STUBBORN
DRY POCKET ENTRENCHED JUST EAST OF THE AREA...WITH STRUGGLING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF. LOW LEVEL WIND
PROFILES LOOK SUBSTANTIALLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE MAINLAND OF FLORIDA AT THIS TIME...BUT A MODEST JET STREAK
ALOFT AND PROGGED MIDLEVEL COOLING WILL BOTH BE CONDUCIVE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IF SIGNIFICANT MOISTENING CAN OCCUR. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES REQUIRED DURING THIS UPDATE CYCLE OF THE PUBLIC GRIDS OR TEXT
PRODUCTS...EXCEPT FOR THE REMOVAL OF TRANSITIONAL WORDING
OVERNIGHT...AND THE ADDITION OF A HEADLINE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED DURING THIS UPDATE CYCLE OF THE
MARINE FORECAST. EXPECT THAT A MOMENTARY SURGE IN WINDS AT SOMBRERO
KEY LIGHT WILL PROVE TO BE FLEETING IN NATURE...AND WINDS SHOULD TOP
OUT IN THE AGGREGATE AT AROUND 15 KNOTS. IF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DO DEVELOP HOWEVER...THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT CHANCE THAT THEY WILL
CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS. AN ABRUPT SHIFT IN WINDS
TO A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION IS IN STORE FOR THE KEYS BY THE
AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY...WITH CAUTIONARY WORDING A LIKELIHOOD FOR AT
LEAST A FEW ZONES SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH EARLY TONIGHT. MVFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT EYW AND MTH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY EVENING. SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS
FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 3000 FEET WILL SHIFT TO WEST TO
NORTHWEST SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1899...1.37 INCHES OF RAIN
FELL IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR MAXIMUM RAINFALL
MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON APRIL 18TH...A RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 115
YEARS LATER. RAINFALL RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........MSB
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BS
DATA COLLECTION.......PARKE

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 181846
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
246 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT WEATHER SUMMARY -- A WARM AND BREEZY MORNING HAS GIVEN WAY
TO SLIGHTLY INCREASED SKY COVER AND A SLACKENING BREEZE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJOINING COASTAL
WATERS. CURRENTLY...AIR TEMPERATURES IN MOST ISLAND COMMUNITIES ARE
IN THE MID 80S...WHILE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S. KEY WEST DOPPLER RADAR SCANS SHOW ISOLATED MOSTLY LIGHT
TO MODERATE SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD.
SHOWER COVERAGE TODAY HAS REMAINED ISOLATED...WITH INTENSITY WEAK...
AND DURATIONS SHORT DUE TO ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY AND A DEEP LAYER
OF DRY AIR ALOFT. A SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF WEAK LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD.
THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GULF BASIN...EVIDENT IN GEOSTATIONARY
SATELLITE ANIMATIONS...SEEMS TO HAVE REACHED PEAK INTENSITY AND
EQUATORWARD EXTENT. ITS ENERGY LIKELY WILL GET ABSORBED BY THE
STRONGER SYSTEM TO ITS NORTH...WRAPPING UP INTO A SLOW-MOVING MID-
LEVEL CYCLONE OVER NORTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. REGIONAL
SATELLITE LOOPS HAVE SHOWN NUMEROUS CONVECTION CLUSTERS AND SYSTEMS
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...THE COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY OF CELLS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF...UPSTREAM OF THE
KEYS...HAS WANED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS...PROBABLY DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF WEAKER LAPSE RATES AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT.

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS -- OVERNIGHT...CURRENT FORECAST REASONING
REMAINS SOUND. AN EPISODE OF INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE IN THE 100-600 AM TIME FRAME.
HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE VIGOR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ESPECIALLY INTENSE
GIVEN BOTH THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC LIMITING FACTORS. THE
TROUGH/SHEAR LINE SHOULD PASS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING SOMETIME WITH
DECREASING SHOWERS THEREAFTER IN INCREASINGLY DRY AND STABLE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

A DRY PERIOD THEN IS EXPECTED WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH GENERALLY FAIR AND FINE WEATHER WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS THEREAFTER.
&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL TURN SOUTH AND COLLAPSE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LOCALLY VARIABLE AND GUSTY WINDS. WINDS
WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST AFTER THE TROUGH. HOWEVER...NO MARINE ADVISORIES
ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&

.AVIATION...
18TH/18Z...WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT AROUND 10
KNOTS...VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AHEAD OF A TROUGH PASSAGE. A
LINE OF WEAKENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
TERMINALS BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z. EXPECT TEMPORARY IFR VIS AND GUSTY
CONVECTIVE WINDS AS THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY IMPACTS EACH TERMINAL.
BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION...PERSISTENT STRATOCU CIGS BASED AS LOW AS
018 WILL PERSIST.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  74  81  71  80 / 50 30 -  -
MARATHON  74  83  72  81 / 50 30 -  -
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....CLR
DATA COLLECTION.......PARKE

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 181445
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1045 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT WEATHER SUMMARY -- A WARM AND BREEZY MORNING IS UNDERWAY
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...WITH GRADUAL
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS. CURRENTLY...AIR TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
LOWER 80S...WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S. SOUTHEAST
WINDS ARE BLOWING AT 15-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS OVER WATER. A
SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...INDUCED BY THE
APPROACHING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH...WHICH IS CLEARLY
EVIDENT IN GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE MOISTURE CHANNEL ANIMATIONS OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED...SHORT-LIVED SHOWERS HAVE
BROKEN OUT OVER PORTIONS OF THE SERVICE AREA...WITH QUICK TRANSLATION
NORTHWESTWARD IN THE MEAN LOW-LEVEL FLOW. DRY AIR ALOFT IS RESULTING
IN SHORT CELL LIFE CYCLES WHILE ALSO PROMOTING SOME GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS. A SERIES OF MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS OF VARYING
INTENSITIES AND LIFE CYCLE STAGES IS EVIDENT UPSTREAM VIA BOTH
REGIONAL RADAR AND SATELLITE ANALYSIS.

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS -- POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. AT
THIS POINT...IT SEEMS LIKE MOST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN WELL
NORTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. IN ADDITION...CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR AT LOW
AND MID ALTITUDES INCOMING FROM THE BAHAMAS AND CARIBBEAN WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT ASCENT. HOWEVER...A
ROBUST SURFACE BOUNDARY AND NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS UPSTREAM
OVER THE GULF WILL PROVIDE SOME LIFTING BASED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
FOR NOW...OUR FORECASTS WILL REMAIN AS IS. WE WILL MONITOR
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND MORNING MACHINE MODEL OUTPUT...AND LIKELY
HAVE SOME ADJUSTMENTS WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.
&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FOR SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15-20
KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO SIX FEET IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. WE EXPECT
BOTH WINDS AND SEAS TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING.
&&

.AVIATION...
18TH/12Z...THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS...DECREASING BELOW 10 KNOTS
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. A LINE OF WEAKENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. WE HAVE INCLUDED A
PROBABILITY OF TSRA AT BOTH TERMINALS FROM 06 TO 12Z...BUT WILL
REFINE THIS WINDOW WITH THE 18Z TAF.
&&

.CLIMATE...APRIL 18TH...ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER
HISTORY...IN 1953...THE HIGH TEMPERATURE REACHED 88F IN KEY
WEST...THE DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE...A RECORD WHICH HAS HELD
FOR 61 YEARS. TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....CLR
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 181048
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
645 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...ITS BEEN A VERY QUIET NIGHT WITH ONLY
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MIGRATING NORTHWEST IN OUR REGION. DUE TO A
MODERATE TO FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
STEADY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN. SURFACE
WISE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS DRAPED FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO...WITH AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE ENTIRE EASTERN UNITED STATES. ACROSS OUR MARINE
DISTRICT...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AVERAGE BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS
WHILE A COUPLE OF SHIP REPORTS ON THE FLORIDA STRAITS INDICATE WIND
GUSTS OF NEAR 25 KNOTS.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EXTREME EASTERN TEXAS WILL MOVE
EAST SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE GULF COAST
REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT...BEFORE TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA
SATURDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS SYSTEM ALOFT...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL
OCCUR IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE
SLIDING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND PULLING A WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY LIES
WITH THE EXTENT OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL ASCENT IMPACTING OUR REGION.
THE ECMWF SHOWS THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A JET MAX AND MODEST MID AND
UPPER LEVEL DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY NEARBY...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
MAJORITY OF THE LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA WRAPPED WITHIN THE SYSTEM.
WITH THAT SAID...HAVE DECIDED TO INSERT HIGH CHANCE POPS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE MAV AND
ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
CARRIED FOR TODAY BUT WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS SPEWING
EASTWARD FROM A LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO. IN WAKE OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL
PRECLUDE SHOWER ACTIVITY SO ONLY NICKLE POPS WILL BE KEPT IN THE
GRIDS BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL WITH AVERAGE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ALTHOUGH ECMWF REVEALS A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW THAN GFS...BOTH MODELS INDICATE A FAIRLY BENIGN AND DRY PATTERN
WILL GOVERN OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. HENCE...WILL
MAINTAIN ONLY DIME POPS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT WITH AVERAGE HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.
&&

.MARINE...
FRESH TO STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PROMPT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY TO REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND AN EXERCISE
CAUTION HEADLINE ELSEWHERE THIS MORNING...BEFORE WINDS ABATE DURING
THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS THIS
EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST LATE. AFTER MIDNIGHT...MARINERS SHOULD
BE ALERT FOR INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...A
FEW OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG. FOR THIS WEEKEND...A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH OUR ENTIRE MARINE DISTRICT SATURDAY
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY FRESH NORTHWEST WINDS WHEN AN EXERCISE CAUTION
HEADLINE OR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS. THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS...DECREASING BELOW 10 KNOTS
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  84  73  82  72 / 10 50 30 -
MARATHON  87  73  83  72 / 10 50 30 -

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GMZ052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........APA
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....AD

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 180253
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1053 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND CHAIN...AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS SURROUNDING
THE ISLANDS. TEMPERATURES ARE HOVERING NEAR 80...AND DEW POINTS ARE
CURIOUSLY CREEPING DOWNWARDS TO NEAR 70 AT ISLAND OBSERVING STATIONS.
EVENING SOUNDING PORTRAYED NEAR 20 KNOT EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE
DEPTH OF AT LEAST 850 MB...WHICH ALONG WITH AREA OBSERVATIONS
REQUIRED AND EARLY UPDATE TO HOIST A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
ATLANTIC WATERS.

.SHORT TERM...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE IN A
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVERNIGHT. TURBULENT WINDS IN THE
LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD KEEP AN AMPLE TRIGGER FOR
BOUNDARY-LAYER INDUCED POP-UP SHOWERS UNTIL MORE ORGANIZED ISENTROPIC
LIFT ARRIVES AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED TO THE ZFP OR PUBLIC GRIDDED
FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. ONLY NECESSARY UPDATE EARLIER ON IN THE
SHIFT WAS NECESSARY TO INCLUDE CHANCE POPS FOR ALL ISLAND LOCATIONS
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 4 AM ACROSS ALL
WATERS. EXPECT THAT A GRADUAL SHIFT TO A SOUTH-SOUTHEAST DIRECTION
SHOULD CAUSE THE STRONGEST WINDS TO BE MAINTAINED SLIGHTLY LONGER
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS...BUT CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
ACROSS ALL WATERS BY THE MID MORNING TIME PERIOD AND WINDS SHOULD
ABRUPTLY EVOLVE TO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM. GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS MAY STILL BE SEEN INSIDE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS. FRESH EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW ALONG WITH A DEEPENING LOW IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO MAY BRING A ROUND OR TWO OF MVFR VIS AND CEILINGS AT THE
ISLAND TERMINALS.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ042>044-052>055-
     072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........MSB
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....04
DATA COLLECTION.......PARKE

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