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000
FXUS62 KKEY 230152 RRA
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
950 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

CORRECTED DATE

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB)...LATEST
AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID AS OF 900 PM OVERLAID WITH MODEL
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A UNSEASONABLY DEEP AND
SHARP FULL LATITUDINAL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM EASTERN CANADA. A MORE INTERESTING
FEATURE WITHIN THIS TROUGH IS A COLD CORE MID-LEVEL LOW 570-575 DM
CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW SWEEPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SMOKY
MOUNTAINS TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC...AND THIS FEATURE IS IN TANDEM WITH
THE DEEP TROUGH AXIS. WELL TO THE EAST OF THIS FEATURE...ONE CENTER
OF A DEEP AND WARM CORE ANTICYCLONE IS POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC NEAR 30 NORTH 65 WEST...AND ANOTHER SYNOPTIC SCALE WARM
CORE ANTICYCLONE IS WELL TO THE WEST...CENTERED OVER NORTHERN OLD
MEXICO. AS A RESULT OF THIS CONFIGURATION...CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH EXCEPTIONAL PVA (POSITIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION) IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON
THE LOWER RIGHT FLANK OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING TOWARDS THE KEYS.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS...AS OF 900
PM...THE LATEST AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MARINE AND LAND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS ARE ILLUSTRATING A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SITUATED ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST WEST
SOUTHWESTWARD TO ALONG THE FLORIDA GULF COAST...WITH WEAK 1013 MB
LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. TO THE SOUTH OF THAT
FEATURE...BROAD 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR THE LOOP CURRENT ABOUT 75 TO 150 MILES WEST OF KEY WEST.
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF SURFACE RIDGING IS JUST ABOUT REACHING
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE LEADING
EDGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD TOWARDS THE EASTERN
FLORIDA STRAITS FROM THE CAY SAL BANK.

.CURRENTLY...LATEST IR IMAGERY COMBINED WITH RADAR AS OF 900 PM
DETAIL CLUSTERS AND BANDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXTENDING FROM NEAR DRY TORTUGAS LIGHT WESTWARD INTO THE OPEN
GULF OF MEXICO WESTWARD TO OPEN WATERS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO BEYOND 100 NM WEST OF KEY WEST. SMALL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE CAY SAL BANK AREA AND MOVING
TOWARDS THE FLORIDA STRAITS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLANDS REMAIN
IN THE LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 70S. C-MAN STATIONS
ALONG THE FLORIDA REEF ARE REGISTERING NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

.FORECAST...OVERNIGHT...THE MID-LEVEL 500 MB LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT TOWARDS THE COAST FROM THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS. AS THE SHARP TROUGH AXIS MOVES JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
KEYS...THE ENHANCED VORTICITY CENTERS AND ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION
WILL REORIENT ITSELF EASTWARD (FROM THE WEST) TOWARDS THE KEYS. THIS
IN COMBINATION WITH THE APPROACHING WEAK TROPICAL WAVE FROM THE EAST
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A PROLIFERATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. GIVEN THE SLOWER SPEED OF SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY WITH CELLS
THAT IMPACT THE KEYS. IN ADDITION...THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTAIN FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS OVER 35 KNOTS. BELIEVE
THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT THE
BETTER COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD OCCUR
CLOSER TO DAWN. UPDATED TO THE FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED TO RAISE POPS
ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...THINKING HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS
DURING THIS UPDATE CYCLE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE
IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...WITH AT LEAST MVFR CATEGORY CONDITIONS A
HIGH LIKELIHOOD AFTER 09Z TONIGHT. AN INCREASED RISK OF
SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS...AND POSSIBLY PROLONGED PERIODS OF STEADY
RAIN EXIST MAINLY AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH 18Z...BUT CURRENT CONFIDENCE
IN THIS FORECAST DOES NOT WARRANT AN EXPLICIT MENTION IN THE TAF
FORECASTS.

&&

.MARINE...OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY...TROPICAL WAVE AXIS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE KEYS OVERNIGHT...SO NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS
WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST BY
MORNING. THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR FROM
BEFORE DAWN THROUGH MID MORNING. GIVEN COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO INCREASE...SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS WILL BE LIKELY
CONTINUE TO BE ISSUED OVERNIGHT...AS SOME CELLS THAT WILL CONTINUE
TO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS.
MARINERS SHOULD KEEP NOAA WEATHER RADIO TUNED IN AT ALL TIMES AND
LISTEN FOR ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS THROUGHOUT THE REST OF
THE NIGHT.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/GRIDS.............DAF
AVIATION/NOWCASTS/CLIMATE.......MSB
DATA COLLECTION/UPPER AIR.......EV

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 230152 RRA
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
950 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

CORRECTED DATE

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB)...LATEST
AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID AS OF 900 PM OVERLAID WITH MODEL
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A UNSEASONABLY DEEP AND
SHARP FULL LATITUDINAL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM EASTERN CANADA. A MORE INTERESTING
FEATURE WITHIN THIS TROUGH IS A COLD CORE MID-LEVEL LOW 570-575 DM
CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW SWEEPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SMOKY
MOUNTAINS TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC...AND THIS FEATURE IS IN TANDEM WITH
THE DEEP TROUGH AXIS. WELL TO THE EAST OF THIS FEATURE...ONE CENTER
OF A DEEP AND WARM CORE ANTICYCLONE IS POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC NEAR 30 NORTH 65 WEST...AND ANOTHER SYNOPTIC SCALE WARM
CORE ANTICYCLONE IS WELL TO THE WEST...CENTERED OVER NORTHERN OLD
MEXICO. AS A RESULT OF THIS CONFIGURATION...CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH EXCEPTIONAL PVA (POSITIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION) IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON
THE LOWER RIGHT FLANK OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING TOWARDS THE KEYS.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS...AS OF 900
PM...THE LATEST AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MARINE AND LAND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS ARE ILLUSTRATING A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SITUATED ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST WEST
SOUTHWESTWARD TO ALONG THE FLORIDA GULF COAST...WITH WEAK 1013 MB
LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. TO THE SOUTH OF THAT
FEATURE...BROAD 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR THE LOOP CURRENT ABOUT 75 TO 150 MILES WEST OF KEY WEST.
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF SURFACE RIDGING IS JUST ABOUT REACHING
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE LEADING
EDGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD TOWARDS THE EASTERN
FLORIDA STRAITS FROM THE CAY SAL BANK.

.CURRENTLY...LATEST IR IMAGERY COMBINED WITH RADAR AS OF 900 PM
DETAIL CLUSTERS AND BANDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXTENDING FROM NEAR DRY TORTUGAS LIGHT WESTWARD INTO THE OPEN
GULF OF MEXICO WESTWARD TO OPEN WATERS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO BEYOND 100 NM WEST OF KEY WEST. SMALL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE CAY SAL BANK AREA AND MOVING
TOWARDS THE FLORIDA STRAITS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLANDS REMAIN
IN THE LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 70S. C-MAN STATIONS
ALONG THE FLORIDA REEF ARE REGISTERING NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

.FORECAST...OVERNIGHT...THE MID-LEVEL 500 MB LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT TOWARDS THE COAST FROM THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS. AS THE SHARP TROUGH AXIS MOVES JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
KEYS...THE ENHANCED VORTICITY CENTERS AND ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION
WILL REORIENT ITSELF EASTWARD (FROM THE WEST) TOWARDS THE KEYS. THIS
IN COMBINATION WITH THE APPROACHING WEAK TROPICAL WAVE FROM THE EAST
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A PROLIFERATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. GIVEN THE SLOWER SPEED OF SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY WITH CELLS
THAT IMPACT THE KEYS. IN ADDITION...THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTAIN FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS OVER 35 KNOTS. BELIEVE
THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT THE
BETTER COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD OCCUR
CLOSER TO DAWN. UPDATED TO THE FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED TO RAISE POPS
ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...THINKING HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS
DURING THIS UPDATE CYCLE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE
IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...WITH AT LEAST MVFR CATEGORY CONDITIONS A
HIGH LIKELIHOOD AFTER 09Z TONIGHT. AN INCREASED RISK OF
SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS...AND POSSIBLY PROLONGED PERIODS OF STEADY
RAIN EXIST MAINLY AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH 18Z...BUT CURRENT CONFIDENCE
IN THIS FORECAST DOES NOT WARRANT AN EXPLICIT MENTION IN THE TAF
FORECASTS.

&&

.MARINE...OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY...TROPICAL WAVE AXIS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE KEYS OVERNIGHT...SO NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS
WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST BY
MORNING. THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR FROM
BEFORE DAWN THROUGH MID MORNING. GIVEN COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO INCREASE...SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS WILL BE LIKELY
CONTINUE TO BE ISSUED OVERNIGHT...AS SOME CELLS THAT WILL CONTINUE
TO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS.
MARINERS SHOULD KEEP NOAA WEATHER RADIO TUNED IN AT ALL TIMES AND
LISTEN FOR ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS THROUGHOUT THE REST OF
THE NIGHT.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/GRIDS.............DAF
AVIATION/NOWCASTS/CLIMATE.......MSB
DATA COLLECTION/UPPER AIR.......EV

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST




















000
FXUS62 KKEY 230151
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
950 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB)...LATEST
AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID AS OF 900 PM OVERLAID WITH MODEL
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A UNSEASONABLY DEEP AND
SHARP FULL LATITUDINAL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM EASTERN CANADA. A MORE INTERESTING
FEATURE WITHIN THIS TROUGH IS A COLD CORE MID-LEVEL LOW 570-575 DM
CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW SWEEPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SMOKY
MOUNTAINS TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC...AND THIS FEATURE IS IN TANDEM WITH
THE DEEP TROUGH AXIS. WELL TO THE EAST OF THIS FEATURE...ONE CENTER
OF A DEEP AND WARM CORE ANTICYCLONE IS POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC NEAR 30 NORTH 65 WEST...AND ANOTHER SYNOPTIC SCALE WARM
CORE ANTICYCLONE IS WELL TO THE WEST...CENTERED OVER NORTHERN OLD
MEXICO. AS A RESULT OF THIS CONFIGURATION...CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH EXCEPTIONAL PVA (POSITIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION) IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON
THE LOWER RIGHT FLANK OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING TOWARDS THE KEYS.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS...AS OF 900
PM...THE LATEST AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MARINE AND LAND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS ARE ILLUSTRATING A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SITUATED ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST WEST
SOUTHWESTWARD TO ALONG THE FLORIDA GULF COAST...WITH WEAK 1013 MB
LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. TO THE SOUTH OF THAT
FEATURE...BROAD 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR THE LOOP CURRENT ABOUT 75 TO 150 MILES WEST OF KEY WEST.
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF SURFACE RIDGING IS JUST ABOUT REACHING
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE LEADING
EDGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD TOWARDS THE EASTERN
FLORIDA STRAITS FROM THE CAY SAL BANK.

.CURRENTLY...LATEST IR IMAGERY COMBINED WITH RADAR AS OF 900 PM
DETAIL CLUSTERS AND BANDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXTENDING FROM NEAR DRY TORTUGAS LIGHT WESTWARD INTO THE OPEN
GULF OF MEXICO WESTWARD TO OPEN WATERS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO BEYOND 100 NM WEST OF KEY WEST. SMALL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE CAY SAL BANK AREA AND MOVING
TOWARDS THE FLORIDA STRAITS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLANDS REMAIN
IN THE LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 70S. C-MAN STATIONS
ALONG THE FLORIDA REEF ARE REGISTERING NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

.FORECAST...OVERNIGHT...THE MID-LEVEL 500 MB LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT TOWARDS THE COAST FROM THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS. AS THE SHARP TROUGH AXIS MOVES JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
KEYS...THE ENHANCED VORTICITY CENTERS AND ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION
WILL REORIENT ITSELF EASTWARD (FROM THE WEST) TOWARDS THE KEYS. THIS
IN COMBINATION WITH THE APPROACHING WEAK TROPICAL WAVE FROM THE EAST
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A PROLIFERATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. GIVEN THE SLOWER SPEED OF SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY WITH CELLS
THAT IMPACT THE KEYS. IN ADDITION...THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTAIN FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS OVER 35 KNOTS. BELIEVE
THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT THE
BETTER COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD OCCUR
CLOSER TO DAWN. UPDATED TO THE FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED TO RAISE POPS
ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...THINKING HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS
DURING THIS UPDATE CYCLE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE
IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...WITH AT LEAST MVFR CATEGORY CONDITIONS A
HIGH LIKELIHOOD AFTER 09Z TONIGHT. AN INCREASED RISK OF
SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS...AND POSSIBLY PROLONGED PERIODS OF STEADY
RAIN EXIST MAINLY AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH 18Z...BUT CURRENT CONFIDENCE
IN THIS FORECAST DOES NOT WARRANT AN EXPLICIT MENTION IN THE TAF
FORECASTS.

&&

.MARINE...OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY...TROPICAL WAVE AXIS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE KEYS OVERNIGHT...SO NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS
WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST BY
MORNING. THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR FROM
BEFORE DAWN THROUGH MID MORNING. GIVEN COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO INCREASE...SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS WILL BE LIKELY
CONTINUE TO BE ISSUED OVERNIGHT...AS SOME CELLS THAT WILL CONTINUE
TO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS.
MARINERS SHOULD KEEP NOAA WEATHER RADIO TUNED IN AT ALL TIMES AND
LISTEN FOR ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS THROUGHOUT THE REST OF
THE NIGHT.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/GRIDS.............DAF
AVIATION/NOWCASTS/CLIMATE.......MSB
DATA COLLECTION/UPPER AIR.......EV

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST



















000
FXUS62 KKEY 230151
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
950 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB)...LATEST
AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID AS OF 900 PM OVERLAID WITH MODEL
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A UNSEASONABLY DEEP AND
SHARP FULL LATITUDINAL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM EASTERN CANADA. A MORE INTERESTING
FEATURE WITHIN THIS TROUGH IS A COLD CORE MID-LEVEL LOW 570-575 DM
CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW SWEEPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SMOKY
MOUNTAINS TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC...AND THIS FEATURE IS IN TANDEM WITH
THE DEEP TROUGH AXIS. WELL TO THE EAST OF THIS FEATURE...ONE CENTER
OF A DEEP AND WARM CORE ANTICYCLONE IS POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC NEAR 30 NORTH 65 WEST...AND ANOTHER SYNOPTIC SCALE WARM
CORE ANTICYCLONE IS WELL TO THE WEST...CENTERED OVER NORTHERN OLD
MEXICO. AS A RESULT OF THIS CONFIGURATION...CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH EXCEPTIONAL PVA (POSITIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION) IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON
THE LOWER RIGHT FLANK OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING TOWARDS THE KEYS.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS...AS OF 900
PM...THE LATEST AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MARINE AND LAND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS ARE ILLUSTRATING A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SITUATED ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST WEST
SOUTHWESTWARD TO ALONG THE FLORIDA GULF COAST...WITH WEAK 1013 MB
LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. TO THE SOUTH OF THAT
FEATURE...BROAD 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR THE LOOP CURRENT ABOUT 75 TO 150 MILES WEST OF KEY WEST.
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF SURFACE RIDGING IS JUST ABOUT REACHING
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE LEADING
EDGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD TOWARDS THE EASTERN
FLORIDA STRAITS FROM THE CAY SAL BANK.

.CURRENTLY...LATEST IR IMAGERY COMBINED WITH RADAR AS OF 900 PM
DETAIL CLUSTERS AND BANDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXTENDING FROM NEAR DRY TORTUGAS LIGHT WESTWARD INTO THE OPEN
GULF OF MEXICO WESTWARD TO OPEN WATERS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO BEYOND 100 NM WEST OF KEY WEST. SMALL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE CAY SAL BANK AREA AND MOVING
TOWARDS THE FLORIDA STRAITS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLANDS REMAIN
IN THE LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 70S. C-MAN STATIONS
ALONG THE FLORIDA REEF ARE REGISTERING NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

.FORECAST...OVERNIGHT...THE MID-LEVEL 500 MB LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT TOWARDS THE COAST FROM THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS. AS THE SHARP TROUGH AXIS MOVES JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
KEYS...THE ENHANCED VORTICITY CENTERS AND ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION
WILL REORIENT ITSELF EASTWARD (FROM THE WEST) TOWARDS THE KEYS. THIS
IN COMBINATION WITH THE APPROACHING WEAK TROPICAL WAVE FROM THE EAST
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A PROLIFERATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. GIVEN THE SLOWER SPEED OF SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY WITH CELLS
THAT IMPACT THE KEYS. IN ADDITION...THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTAIN FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS OVER 35 KNOTS. BELIEVE
THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT THE
BETTER COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD OCCUR
CLOSER TO DAWN. UPDATED TO THE FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED TO RAISE POPS
ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...THINKING HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS
DURING THIS UPDATE CYCLE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE
IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...WITH AT LEAST MVFR CATEGORY CONDITIONS A
HIGH LIKELIHOOD AFTER 09Z TONIGHT. AN INCREASED RISK OF
SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS...AND POSSIBLY PROLONGED PERIODS OF STEADY
RAIN EXIST MAINLY AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH 18Z...BUT CURRENT CONFIDENCE
IN THIS FORECAST DOES NOT WARRANT AN EXPLICIT MENTION IN THE TAF
FORECASTS.

&&

.MARINE...OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY...TROPICAL WAVE AXIS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE KEYS OVERNIGHT...SO NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS
WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST BY
MORNING. THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR FROM
BEFORE DAWN THROUGH MID MORNING. GIVEN COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO INCREASE...SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS WILL BE LIKELY
CONTINUE TO BE ISSUED OVERNIGHT...AS SOME CELLS THAT WILL CONTINUE
TO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS.
MARINERS SHOULD KEEP NOAA WEATHER RADIO TUNED IN AT ALL TIMES AND
LISTEN FOR ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS THROUGHOUT THE REST OF
THE NIGHT.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/GRIDS.............DAF
AVIATION/NOWCASTS/CLIMATE.......MSB
DATA COLLECTION/UPPER AIR.......EV

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST




















000
FXUS62 KKEY 221850
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
250 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
THE MORNING SOUNDING RETURNED A VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH HIGH
MOISTURE THROUGH THE MID LAYERS. THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF CUBA SPREAD
THROUGH THE STRAITS...WHILE DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SPAWNED BOUNDARIES AROUND THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. THIS SET UP THE
KICKER IN A PRIMED ENVIRONMENT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON BOUNDARY COLLISIONS...WHICH MAY BE A HARBINGER OF WEATHER DURING
THE NEXT FEW PERIODS. WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KNOTS...OR
IN A FEW CASES UP TO 35 KNOTS...IN THE STRONGER STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE OVERALL WINDS HAVE COME UP A BIT OUTSIDE OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY...OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 KNOTS AT THE C-MAN
STATIONS...AND THE ISLAND TERMINALS. SATELLITE INTERROGATION
INDICATES SHOWING THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA GULF
COAST.

.FORECAST...
IN THE NEAR TERM...LINGERING BOUNDARIES ARE STILL PRODUCING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE KEYS WATERS AT THIS HOUR AND EXPECT THIS
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH PLENTY OF PWAT IN THE COLUMN...NO
INHIBITION...AND A GOOD VEERING VERTICAL WIND PROFILE. THE SHORT WAVE
DIVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OVER THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NOSING THROUGH THE STRAITS. THIS WILL KEEP THE
WEAKNESS IN PRESSURE OVER THE KEYS OVERNIGHT BEFORE THE INTERACTION
OF A MID LATITUDE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES...AND A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE INTERACT AND FOCUS
ACTIVITY OVER THE KEYS AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT. EASTERLY WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES MOVES OUT TO THE EAST...A LARGE SCALE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. MEANWHILE A TROPICAL WAVE WILL
CROSS THE CARIBBEAN...ARRIVING ALONG EASTER CUBA LATE TONIGHT OR
EARLY TUESDAY. THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WITH THE WAVE MOVING IN WILL
FOCUS LIFTING ALONG THE KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AROUND THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE EASTERN STATES EARLY
TUESDAY HELPING TO INCREASE WINDS OUT OF THE EAST THROUGH THE KEYS
AREA. THIS RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
STRETCHING NORTHEASTWARD AND WEAKENING.

&&

.MARINE...
A LARGE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A CAUTIONARY STATEMENT IS LIKELY LATE TUESDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONALLY...A
WEAK WAVE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE KEYS KEYS LATE TUESDAY...AND OUT OF
THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY INCREASING RAIN COVERAGE OVER THE MARINE
ENVIRONMENT. BY EARLY THURSDAY THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN...RELAXING WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT THE MARATHON TERMINAL
AND KEY WEST TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS NEARBY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WANE. CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...AND HAVE INSERTED A VICINITY SHOWER TO COVER THAT
POSSIBILITY AT BOTH TERMINALS. A LIGHT BREEZE WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THEN SETTLE TOWARDS
THE EAST WHILE MODERATING ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1899...5.82 INCHES OF RAIN
WAS RECORDED IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RAINFALL RECORD FOR
SEPTEMBER 22 IN KEY WEST. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO
1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  79  86  76  87 / 50 60 60 50
MARATHON  79  87  76  88 / 50 60 60 50

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....11
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 221850
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
250 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
THE MORNING SOUNDING RETURNED A VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH HIGH
MOISTURE THROUGH THE MID LAYERS. THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF CUBA SPREAD
THROUGH THE STRAITS...WHILE DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SPAWNED BOUNDARIES AROUND THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. THIS SET UP THE
KICKER IN A PRIMED ENVIRONMENT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON BOUNDARY COLLISIONS...WHICH MAY BE A HARBINGER OF WEATHER DURING
THE NEXT FEW PERIODS. WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KNOTS...OR
IN A FEW CASES UP TO 35 KNOTS...IN THE STRONGER STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE OVERALL WINDS HAVE COME UP A BIT OUTSIDE OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY...OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 KNOTS AT THE C-MAN
STATIONS...AND THE ISLAND TERMINALS. SATELLITE INTERROGATION
INDICATES SHOWING THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA GULF
COAST.

.FORECAST...
IN THE NEAR TERM...LINGERING BOUNDARIES ARE STILL PRODUCING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE KEYS WATERS AT THIS HOUR AND EXPECT THIS
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH PLENTY OF PWAT IN THE COLUMN...NO
INHIBITION...AND A GOOD VEERING VERTICAL WIND PROFILE. THE SHORT WAVE
DIVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OVER THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NOSING THROUGH THE STRAITS. THIS WILL KEEP THE
WEAKNESS IN PRESSURE OVER THE KEYS OVERNIGHT BEFORE THE INTERACTION
OF A MID LATITUDE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES...AND A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE INTERACT AND FOCUS
ACTIVITY OVER THE KEYS AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT. EASTERLY WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES MOVES OUT TO THE EAST...A LARGE SCALE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. MEANWHILE A TROPICAL WAVE WILL
CROSS THE CARIBBEAN...ARRIVING ALONG EASTER CUBA LATE TONIGHT OR
EARLY TUESDAY. THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WITH THE WAVE MOVING IN WILL
FOCUS LIFTING ALONG THE KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AROUND THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE EASTERN STATES EARLY
TUESDAY HELPING TO INCREASE WINDS OUT OF THE EAST THROUGH THE KEYS
AREA. THIS RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
STRETCHING NORTHEASTWARD AND WEAKENING.

&&

.MARINE...
A LARGE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A CAUTIONARY STATEMENT IS LIKELY LATE TUESDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONALLY...A
WEAK WAVE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE KEYS KEYS LATE TUESDAY...AND OUT OF
THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY INCREASING RAIN COVERAGE OVER THE MARINE
ENVIRONMENT. BY EARLY THURSDAY THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN...RELAXING WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT THE MARATHON TERMINAL
AND KEY WEST TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS NEARBY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WANE. CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...AND HAVE INSERTED A VICINITY SHOWER TO COVER THAT
POSSIBILITY AT BOTH TERMINALS. A LIGHT BREEZE WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THEN SETTLE TOWARDS
THE EAST WHILE MODERATING ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1899...5.82 INCHES OF RAIN
WAS RECORDED IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RAINFALL RECORD FOR
SEPTEMBER 22 IN KEY WEST. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO
1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  79  86  76  87 / 50 60 60 50
MARATHON  79  87  76  88 / 50 60 60 50

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....11
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 221332
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
932 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SATELLITE SPOTTING THIS MORNING SHOWS A VERY WEAK TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH A REINFORCING SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THIS
MORNING. A LARGE UPPER LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WEST
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. FINALLY THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE CONTINUES TO NOSE INTO THE BAHAMAS AND THE EASTERN FLORIDA
STRAITS. THE KBYX RADAR HAS WIDE SPREAD SHOWERS WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN GULF WATERS SOUTHWEST OF THE DRY
TORTUGAS TO 20 MILES WEST OF CHOKOLOSKEE. CURRENTLY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN A CONVERGENT AREA OVER THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER KEYS...GULF AND BAY SIDE WATERS...AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. WINDS
ARE LIGHT AND FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

.FORECAST...
IN THE SHORT TERM...DUE TO THE DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS...MAY HAVE TO
RAISE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REST OF TODAY. BEYOND THE SHORT
TERM...EXPECT LITTLE CHANCE TO THE WELL ADVERTISED FORECAST THROUGH
AT LEAST FRIDAY. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE MID LATITUDES AND
TROPICS WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE KEYS AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES MOVES OUT TO THE EAST...A LARGE SCALE RIDGE
WILL MOVE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. MEANWHILE A
TROPICAL WAVE WILL CROSS THE CARIBBEAN...ARRIVING ALONG EASTER CUBA
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WITH THE WAVE
MOVING IN WILL FOCUS LIFTING ALONG THE KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE EASTERN
STATES EARLY TUESDAY HELPING TO INCREASE WINDS OUT OF THE EAST
THROUGH THE KEYS AREA. THIS RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE STRETCHING NORTHEASTWARD AND WEAKENING.

&&

.MARINE...
A LARGE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A CAUTIONARY STATEMENT IS LIKELY LATE TUESDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONALLY...A
WEAK WAVE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE KEYS KEYS LATE TUESDAY...AND OUT OF
THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY INCREASING RAIN COVERAGE OVER THE MARINE
ENVIRONMENT. BY EARLY THURSDAY THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN...RELAXING WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
A LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED STORMS IN THE WATERS NORTHWEST TO
WEST FROM THE LOWER KEYS IS WANING AT THIS TIME. IT APPEARS THAT SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS ARE A LOW PROBABILITY DUE TO THIS AREA AT EITHER
MARATHON OR KEY WEST. MORE DISCREET SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE OUTER STRAITS. THE DISTANCE AND
SLOW SPEED OF THESE CELLS ALSO INDICATES A LOW PROBABILITY OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS AT EITHER TERMINAL...AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. OF
COURSE THIS WILL BE MONITORED...AND EITHER LOCATIONS WILL BE AMENDED
SHOULD CONDITIONS WARRANT. EXPECT A LIGHT WIND TURNING TO THE
NORTHEAST LATER TODAY...AND THEN TO THE EAST LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS CLIMATE HISTORY...IN 1889...THE RECORD
RAINFALL IN KEY WEST ON SEPTEMBER 22ND WAS 5.82 INCHES. THIS RECORD
REMAINS STANDING 125 YEARS LATER. RAINFALL RECORDS IN KEY WEST DATE
BACK TO 1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....11
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 221332
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
932 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SATELLITE SPOTTING THIS MORNING SHOWS A VERY WEAK TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH A REINFORCING SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THIS
MORNING. A LARGE UPPER LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WEST
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. FINALLY THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE CONTINUES TO NOSE INTO THE BAHAMAS AND THE EASTERN FLORIDA
STRAITS. THE KBYX RADAR HAS WIDE SPREAD SHOWERS WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN GULF WATERS SOUTHWEST OF THE DRY
TORTUGAS TO 20 MILES WEST OF CHOKOLOSKEE. CURRENTLY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN A CONVERGENT AREA OVER THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER KEYS...GULF AND BAY SIDE WATERS...AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. WINDS
ARE LIGHT AND FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

.FORECAST...
IN THE SHORT TERM...DUE TO THE DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS...MAY HAVE TO
RAISE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REST OF TODAY. BEYOND THE SHORT
TERM...EXPECT LITTLE CHANCE TO THE WELL ADVERTISED FORECAST THROUGH
AT LEAST FRIDAY. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE MID LATITUDES AND
TROPICS WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE KEYS AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES MOVES OUT TO THE EAST...A LARGE SCALE RIDGE
WILL MOVE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. MEANWHILE A
TROPICAL WAVE WILL CROSS THE CARIBBEAN...ARRIVING ALONG EASTER CUBA
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WITH THE WAVE
MOVING IN WILL FOCUS LIFTING ALONG THE KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE EASTERN
STATES EARLY TUESDAY HELPING TO INCREASE WINDS OUT OF THE EAST
THROUGH THE KEYS AREA. THIS RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE STRETCHING NORTHEASTWARD AND WEAKENING.

&&

.MARINE...
A LARGE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A CAUTIONARY STATEMENT IS LIKELY LATE TUESDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONALLY...A
WEAK WAVE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE KEYS KEYS LATE TUESDAY...AND OUT OF
THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY INCREASING RAIN COVERAGE OVER THE MARINE
ENVIRONMENT. BY EARLY THURSDAY THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN...RELAXING WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
A LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED STORMS IN THE WATERS NORTHWEST TO
WEST FROM THE LOWER KEYS IS WANING AT THIS TIME. IT APPEARS THAT SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS ARE A LOW PROBABILITY DUE TO THIS AREA AT EITHER
MARATHON OR KEY WEST. MORE DISCREET SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE OUTER STRAITS. THE DISTANCE AND
SLOW SPEED OF THESE CELLS ALSO INDICATES A LOW PROBABILITY OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS AT EITHER TERMINAL...AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. OF
COURSE THIS WILL BE MONITORED...AND EITHER LOCATIONS WILL BE AMENDED
SHOULD CONDITIONS WARRANT. EXPECT A LIGHT WIND TURNING TO THE
NORTHEAST LATER TODAY...AND THEN TO THE EAST LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS CLIMATE HISTORY...IN 1889...THE RECORD
RAINFALL IN KEY WEST ON SEPTEMBER 22ND WAS 5.82 INCHES. THIS RECORD
REMAINS STANDING 125 YEARS LATER. RAINFALL RECORDS IN KEY WEST DATE
BACK TO 1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....11
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 221202
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
802 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.AVIATION...A LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED STORMS IN THE WATERS
NORTHWEST TO WEST FROM THE LOWER KEYS IS WANING AT THIS TIME. IT
APPEARS THAT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE A LOW PROBABILITY DUE TO THIS
AREA AT EITHER MARATHON OR KEY WEST. MORE DISCREET SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE OUTER STRAITS.
THE DISTANCE AND SLOW SPEED OF THESE CELLS ALSO INDICATES A LOW
PROBABILITY OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT EITHER TERMINAL...AT LEAST
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. OF COURSE THIS WILL BE MONITORED...AND
EITHER LOCATIONS WILL BE AMENDED SHOULD CONDITIONS WARRANT. EXPECT A
LIGHT WIND TURNING TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TODAY...AND THEN TO THE
EAST LATER TONIGHT.

&&

$$

AVIATION...04

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 221202
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
802 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.AVIATION...A LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED STORMS IN THE WATERS
NORTHWEST TO WEST FROM THE LOWER KEYS IS WANING AT THIS TIME. IT
APPEARS THAT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE A LOW PROBABILITY DUE TO THIS
AREA AT EITHER MARATHON OR KEY WEST. MORE DISCREET SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE OUTER STRAITS.
THE DISTANCE AND SLOW SPEED OF THESE CELLS ALSO INDICATES A LOW
PROBABILITY OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT EITHER TERMINAL...AT LEAST
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. OF COURSE THIS WILL BE MONITORED...AND
EITHER LOCATIONS WILL BE AMENDED SHOULD CONDITIONS WARRANT. EXPECT A
LIGHT WIND TURNING TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TODAY...AND THEN TO THE
EAST LATER TONIGHT.

&&

$$

AVIATION...04

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 220858
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
458 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER-LEVEL COMPOSITE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS A LARGE-SCALE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A LARGE...DEEP-LAYER MEAN ANTICYCLONE WAS
CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC BETWEEN BERMUDA AND PUERTO RICO...WITH A
RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BASIN. THE
FLORIDA KEYS ARE POSITIONED WITHIN WEAKLY VEERING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...IN A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLY STRATIFIED ATMOSPHERE. BOTH
UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS AND RECENT SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST SYNOPTIC-
SCALE ASCENT IS OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. AFTER A QUIET EVENING ON RADAR...A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAS QUICKLY ERUPTED FROM NEAR SMITH SHOAL TO JUST SOUTH
OF DRY TORTUGAS. A FEW OF THE EMBEDDED DISCRETE CELLS ARE STRONG WITH
ECHO TOPS EXCEEDING 50000 FEET AGL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.
THE BAND IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 6 KNOTS. ELSEWHERE...SKIES ARE
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S AND LIGHT
BREEZES PREVAILING.

FORECASTS -- THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL UNDERGO AN INTERESTING
EVOLUTION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS INVOLVING COMPLICATED
INTERACTIONS BOTH BETWEEN MIDLATITUDE AND TROPICAL LATITUDES AND
BETWEEN UPPER AND LOWER TROPOSPHERE. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD REMAIN
LARGELY DECOUPLED IN THE VERTICAL TODAY FOR MOST OF THE SERVICE
AREA...HENCE THE SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES. AN EXCEPTION TO THIS IS THE
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING. FOR TONIGHT... THE
WELL-DEFINED EQUATORWARD-MOVING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY EVIDENT
IN GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE WATER VAPOR CHANNEL ANIMATIONS OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL REACH GEORGIA AND CUT OFF INTO A CYCLONE. AT THE
SAME TIME THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL HOLD POSITION ALLOWING
A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE TO REACH CUBA. THE PATTERN EVOLUTION
ON TUESDAY WILL BE COMPLICATED AS EVERYTHING SLOWS DOWN. HOWEVER...
MOST WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS ARE INDICATING HIGH SKY COVER...POP...
AND QPF VALUES OWING TO A LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ZONE
SETTING UP OVER OR NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS/STRAITS OF FLORIDA DUE TO
THE TROPICAL WAVE/EASTERLY WIND SURGE...COUPLED WITH LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN END OF THE MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH/JET. WE THINK THE DEGREE OF VERTICAL COUPLING REMAINS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN...AND SO WE HAVE RETAINED RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY BELOW MODEL
OUTPUT STATISTICS...FOR NOW. BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY...SKY COVER AND
RAIN CHANCES DECREASE AGAIN AS A MORE WEAKLY FORCED ATMOSPHERIC STATE
RETURNS.
&&

.MARINE...
SEE MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY FOR INFO ON STORMS
OVER THE GULF. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MOST OF TODAY. A
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY RAPIDLY OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES AND WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN FRESHENING EAST BREEZES ACROSS
FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN SLOWLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL AT THE EYW AND MTH TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH...THICK
LAYERS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OCCASIONALLY OCCLUDE THE
TERMINALS. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES WILL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RAMP UP QUICKLY
AFTER 00Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING REMAINS POOR.
&&

.CLIMATE...
SEPTEMBER 22...ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS CLIMATE HISTORY...IN
1889...5.82 INCHES OF RECORD RAINFALL FELL...A RECORD WHICH STANDS
125 YEARS LATER. RAINFALL RECORDS IN KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  88  79  86  78 / 20 50 60 60
MARATHON  90  79  87  78 / 20 50 60 60
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....CLR

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 220128
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
930 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB)...LATEST
AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID AS OF 900 PM OVERLAID WITH MODEL
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A DEEP CYCLONIC MID AND UPPER GYRE
ENCOMPASSING THE CONUS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
INCLUDING MUCH OF THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE CENTER OF A BROAD
DEEP AND WARM ANTICYCLONE IS POSITIONED OVER NORTHERN OLD MEXICO.
THE EAST...THE CENTER OF ANOTHER DEEP AND WARM BUILDING MID AND
UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS POSITIONED NEAR 30 NORTH 63 WEST. FINALLY A
WEAKENED TUTT (TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH) LOW IS OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. AS A RESULT...ALL OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID
AND UPPER FEATURES CONVERGE ASYMPTOTICALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
GULF...AND JUST TO THE WEST OF THE KEYS...WHICH IS ALLOWING FOR SOME
MID AND UPPER DRYING AT POINTS FROM THE CENTRAL FLORIDA STRAITS
EASTWARD.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS...AS OF 900
PM...WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF STREAM EAST OF
CHARLESTON ALONG A WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
SOUTHWESTWARD TO ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. ILL DEFINED BROAD LOWER
PRESSURE IS EVIDENT FROM THE LOWER KEYS JUST TO THE WEST. A TROPICAL
WAVE AXIS WAS ANALYZED IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA 100 MILES WEST OF
JAMAICA. AN FINALLY...A WEAK RIDGING POKES FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
TO EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA. AS A RESULT...THE 00Z EVENING SOUNDING WAS
SIMILAR TO 24 HOURS PRIOR...AND WAS VERY MOIST WITH PWAT AT 2.09
INCHES AND LIGHT MOSTLY EAST FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO 850
MB...BECOMING GENTLE SOUTHWEST TO WEST ABOVE THAT TO 400 MB.

.CURRENTLY...LATEST IR IMAGERY COMBINED WITH RADAR AS OF 900 PM
DETAILS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED
TO WATERS ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA STRAITS AND JUST EXITING THE
NORTH CENTRAL CUBAN COAST NEAR VARADERO. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
ISLANDS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S.
C-MAN STATIONS ALONG THE FLORIDA REEF AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA BAY...AS
WELL AS OTHER WEATHER STATIONS AT SMITH SHOAL LIGHT ARE RECORDING
LIGHT MOSTLY EAST WINDS NEAR 5 KNOTS.

.FORECAST...OVERNIGHT...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AT
LEAST ONE MORE NIGHT. AND ALTHOUGH LATEST MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...18Z...CONTINUES TO ILLUSTRATE DEEP MOISTURE IN THE LOWER
TO MID TROPOSPHERE...(WITH COLUMNAR PWAT AROUND 2.00 INCHES)...THE
BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
ISLANDS...THE LOWER KEYS...AND ADJOINING WATERS. REASON FOR THIS IS
THAT AS THE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK TROPICAL WAVE AXIS CONTINUES
TO MOVE WESTWARD IN LONGITUDE...IT WILL APPROACH THE BROADER LOWER
PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF AND YUCATAN CHANNEL AREAS. THE
INTERACTION OF THESE FEATURES WILL PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA
STRAITS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE AND SURROUNDING WATERS WESTWARD.

EAST OF THE 7 MILE BRIDGE...LITTLE ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY UPSTREAM OF
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS ATTM...AND THE WEAK STORM MOTION WILL NOT
BE FAVORABLE IN GETTING THE SHOWERS NEAR VARADERO INTO THE KEYS.
THEREFORE WILL KEEP MIDDLE OF THE ROAD CHANCE POPS IN PLACE WEST OF
THE 7 MILE BRIDGE...WITH ISOLATED TO THE EAST. THERE IS NO REAL NEED
TO SPLIT THIS IN THE GRIDS AS THE WORDING CAN BE ADJUSTED IN THIS
PARTICULAR CIRCUMSTANCE. SO JUST A MINOR EVENING UPDATE IS
FORTHCOMING.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
SUSTAINED NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS NEAR 5 KNOTS FROM JUST OFF THE
SURFACE TO ABOUT 3000 FEET WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1948...A CATEGORY
THREE HURRICANE MADE ITS INITIAL UNITED STATES LANDFALL NEAR
SUGARLOAF KEY. THE WIND SPEED AT BOCA CHICA REACHED 122 MILES PER
HOUR BEFORE THE ANEMOMETER WAS BLOWN AWAY. A FIVE FOOT STORM TIDE
WAS OBSERVED AT TAVERNIER. 4.53 INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN KEY WEST...
SETTING THE DAILY RECORD FOR MAXIMUM RAINFALL MEASURED IN KEY WEST
ON SEPTEMBER 21ST...A RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 66 YEARS LATER.
RAINFALL RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.MARINE...OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY...A NEARBY TROUGH WILL KEEP LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS...TENDING MOSTLY SOUTHWESTERLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT
AND SATURDAY...BUT OF COURSE WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND
AROUND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY.


&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/GRIDS.............DAF
AVIATION/NOWCASTS/CLIMATE.......BS
DATA COLLECTION/UPPER AIR.......EV

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 220128
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
930 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB)...LATEST
AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID AS OF 900 PM OVERLAID WITH MODEL
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A DEEP CYCLONIC MID AND UPPER GYRE
ENCOMPASSING THE CONUS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
INCLUDING MUCH OF THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE CENTER OF A BROAD
DEEP AND WARM ANTICYCLONE IS POSITIONED OVER NORTHERN OLD MEXICO.
THE EAST...THE CENTER OF ANOTHER DEEP AND WARM BUILDING MID AND
UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS POSITIONED NEAR 30 NORTH 63 WEST. FINALLY A
WEAKENED TUTT (TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH) LOW IS OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. AS A RESULT...ALL OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID
AND UPPER FEATURES CONVERGE ASYMPTOTICALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
GULF...AND JUST TO THE WEST OF THE KEYS...WHICH IS ALLOWING FOR SOME
MID AND UPPER DRYING AT POINTS FROM THE CENTRAL FLORIDA STRAITS
EASTWARD.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS...AS OF 900
PM...WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF STREAM EAST OF
CHARLESTON ALONG A WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
SOUTHWESTWARD TO ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. ILL DEFINED BROAD LOWER
PRESSURE IS EVIDENT FROM THE LOWER KEYS JUST TO THE WEST. A TROPICAL
WAVE AXIS WAS ANALYZED IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA 100 MILES WEST OF
JAMAICA. AN FINALLY...A WEAK RIDGING POKES FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
TO EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA. AS A RESULT...THE 00Z EVENING SOUNDING WAS
SIMILAR TO 24 HOURS PRIOR...AND WAS VERY MOIST WITH PWAT AT 2.09
INCHES AND LIGHT MOSTLY EAST FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO 850
MB...BECOMING GENTLE SOUTHWEST TO WEST ABOVE THAT TO 400 MB.

.CURRENTLY...LATEST IR IMAGERY COMBINED WITH RADAR AS OF 900 PM
DETAILS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED
TO WATERS ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA STRAITS AND JUST EXITING THE
NORTH CENTRAL CUBAN COAST NEAR VARADERO. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
ISLANDS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S.
C-MAN STATIONS ALONG THE FLORIDA REEF AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA BAY...AS
WELL AS OTHER WEATHER STATIONS AT SMITH SHOAL LIGHT ARE RECORDING
LIGHT MOSTLY EAST WINDS NEAR 5 KNOTS.

.FORECAST...OVERNIGHT...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AT
LEAST ONE MORE NIGHT. AND ALTHOUGH LATEST MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...18Z...CONTINUES TO ILLUSTRATE DEEP MOISTURE IN THE LOWER
TO MID TROPOSPHERE...(WITH COLUMNAR PWAT AROUND 2.00 INCHES)...THE
BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
ISLANDS...THE LOWER KEYS...AND ADJOINING WATERS. REASON FOR THIS IS
THAT AS THE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK TROPICAL WAVE AXIS CONTINUES
TO MOVE WESTWARD IN LONGITUDE...IT WILL APPROACH THE BROADER LOWER
PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF AND YUCATAN CHANNEL AREAS. THE
INTERACTION OF THESE FEATURES WILL PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA
STRAITS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE AND SURROUNDING WATERS WESTWARD.

EAST OF THE 7 MILE BRIDGE...LITTLE ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY UPSTREAM OF
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS ATTM...AND THE WEAK STORM MOTION WILL NOT
BE FAVORABLE IN GETTING THE SHOWERS NEAR VARADERO INTO THE KEYS.
THEREFORE WILL KEEP MIDDLE OF THE ROAD CHANCE POPS IN PLACE WEST OF
THE 7 MILE BRIDGE...WITH ISOLATED TO THE EAST. THERE IS NO REAL NEED
TO SPLIT THIS IN THE GRIDS AS THE WORDING CAN BE ADJUSTED IN THIS
PARTICULAR CIRCUMSTANCE. SO JUST A MINOR EVENING UPDATE IS
FORTHCOMING.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
SUSTAINED NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS NEAR 5 KNOTS FROM JUST OFF THE
SURFACE TO ABOUT 3000 FEET WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1948...A CATEGORY
THREE HURRICANE MADE ITS INITIAL UNITED STATES LANDFALL NEAR
SUGARLOAF KEY. THE WIND SPEED AT BOCA CHICA REACHED 122 MILES PER
HOUR BEFORE THE ANEMOMETER WAS BLOWN AWAY. A FIVE FOOT STORM TIDE
WAS OBSERVED AT TAVERNIER. 4.53 INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN KEY WEST...
SETTING THE DAILY RECORD FOR MAXIMUM RAINFALL MEASURED IN KEY WEST
ON SEPTEMBER 21ST...A RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 66 YEARS LATER.
RAINFALL RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.MARINE...OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY...A NEARBY TROUGH WILL KEEP LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS...TENDING MOSTLY SOUTHWESTERLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT
AND SATURDAY...BUT OF COURSE WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND
AROUND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY.


&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/GRIDS.............DAF
AVIATION/NOWCASTS/CLIMATE.......BS
DATA COLLECTION/UPPER AIR.......EV

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 211755
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
155 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
FROM VISIBLE SATELLITE INTERROGATION WE FIND A DECAYING TROUGH ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
IS BEING EJECTED TO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH DIPPING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE KBYX RADAR IS
SHOWING SOME RETURNS OF STRATOFORM AND VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES
ALONG THE TROUGH. WINDS MAINLY SOUTH AROUND 5 KNOTS ACROSS THE ISLAND
CHAIN AND SURROUNDING WATERS.

.FORECAST...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE MID ATLANTIC UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT AND THE LARGE
TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES MOVES TO THE EAST. THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL TAKE DOMINANCE OF THE KEYS AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. AS THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH HEADS OFF TO THE EAST AN IMMENSE
ROBUST RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE KEYS WILL
BE IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS ROBUST RIDGE WHICH WILL INCREASE
WINDS OUT OF THE EAST. ADDITIONALLY...A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN FEEDING MOISTURE INTO THE ENVIRONMENT...AND
INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA. LATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT HAVE HIGH END CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ISLAND CHAIN...AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. ALSO WITH THE FOCUS
OF THE GRADIENT AROUND THE RIDGE AND WITH THE WAVE PASSING TO THE
SOUTH WILL LIKELY HAVE TO ADOPT A CAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE KEYS WATERS. THE
RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ON THURSDAY RELAXING WINDS WHILE THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NOSES BACK ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS.
DURING THIS TIME WITH AND THROUGH SATURDAY WILL GRADUALLY DROP BACK
INTO A MORE SEASONAL WEATHER PATTERN WITH LOW END CHANCE POPS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE KEYS AREA AND THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A ROBUST RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND COMBINE WITH A WESTWARD MOVING WAVE
CROSSING CUBA AND THE CARIBBEAN TUESDAY...RESULTING IN A WIND SURGE
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A CAUTIONARY STATEMENT MAY
BE REQUIRED TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN OR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD FAVOR THE AREAS NORTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THE LATEST TAFS DID NOT
ADVERTISE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...1948...A HURRICANE INTENSIFIED
AS IT MOVED NORTH NORTHEAST OFF WESTERN CUBA CROSSING OVER BOCA CHICA
AS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE. THE SUSTAINED WIND AT BOCA CHICA WAS
MEASURED AT 122 MPH...WITH A PEAK WIND OF 140 MPH BEFORE THE
ANEMOMETER BLEW AWAY. IN KEY WEST THE MINIMUM PRESSURE WAS 28.45
INCHES OF MERCURY...963 MB...A PEAK WIND OF 84 MPH...WITH A 5 TO 6
FOOT STORM SURGE ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. THE RADIUS OF THE EYE OF THE
STORM WAS ONLY 10 MILES. KEY WEST MEASURED 4.53 INCHES OF RAINFALL
WHICH SET THE DAILY RECORD RAINFALL IN KEY WEST ON SEPTEMBER 21ST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  79  88  79  87 / 40 30 50 50
MARATHON  80  87  79  86 / 40 30 50 50

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....11
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 211755
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
155 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
FROM VISIBLE SATELLITE INTERROGATION WE FIND A DECAYING TROUGH ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
IS BEING EJECTED TO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH DIPPING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE KBYX RADAR IS
SHOWING SOME RETURNS OF STRATOFORM AND VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES
ALONG THE TROUGH. WINDS MAINLY SOUTH AROUND 5 KNOTS ACROSS THE ISLAND
CHAIN AND SURROUNDING WATERS.

.FORECAST...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE MID ATLANTIC UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT AND THE LARGE
TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES MOVES TO THE EAST. THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL TAKE DOMINANCE OF THE KEYS AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. AS THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH HEADS OFF TO THE EAST AN IMMENSE
ROBUST RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE KEYS WILL
BE IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS ROBUST RIDGE WHICH WILL INCREASE
WINDS OUT OF THE EAST. ADDITIONALLY...A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN FEEDING MOISTURE INTO THE ENVIRONMENT...AND
INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA. LATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT HAVE HIGH END CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ISLAND CHAIN...AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. ALSO WITH THE FOCUS
OF THE GRADIENT AROUND THE RIDGE AND WITH THE WAVE PASSING TO THE
SOUTH WILL LIKELY HAVE TO ADOPT A CAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE KEYS WATERS. THE
RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ON THURSDAY RELAXING WINDS WHILE THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NOSES BACK ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS.
DURING THIS TIME WITH AND THROUGH SATURDAY WILL GRADUALLY DROP BACK
INTO A MORE SEASONAL WEATHER PATTERN WITH LOW END CHANCE POPS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE KEYS AREA AND THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A ROBUST RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND COMBINE WITH A WESTWARD MOVING WAVE
CROSSING CUBA AND THE CARIBBEAN TUESDAY...RESULTING IN A WIND SURGE
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A CAUTIONARY STATEMENT MAY
BE REQUIRED TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN OR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD FAVOR THE AREAS NORTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THE LATEST TAFS DID NOT
ADVERTISE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...1948...A HURRICANE INTENSIFIED
AS IT MOVED NORTH NORTHEAST OFF WESTERN CUBA CROSSING OVER BOCA CHICA
AS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE. THE SUSTAINED WIND AT BOCA CHICA WAS
MEASURED AT 122 MPH...WITH A PEAK WIND OF 140 MPH BEFORE THE
ANEMOMETER BLEW AWAY. IN KEY WEST THE MINIMUM PRESSURE WAS 28.45
INCHES OF MERCURY...963 MB...A PEAK WIND OF 84 MPH...WITH A 5 TO 6
FOOT STORM SURGE ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. THE RADIUS OF THE EYE OF THE
STORM WAS ONLY 10 MILES. KEY WEST MEASURED 4.53 INCHES OF RAINFALL
WHICH SET THE DAILY RECORD RAINFALL IN KEY WEST ON SEPTEMBER 21ST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  79  88  79  87 / 40 30 50 50
MARATHON  80  87  79  86 / 40 30 50 50

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....11
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 211308
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
908 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
ONLY VERY LIGHT RAIN IS EVIDENT FROM THE KBYX RADAR THIS MORNING
UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. THE TROUGH TO THE EAST OF FLORIDA WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS THE DELMARVA COAST. THE ENERGY IN THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE TROUGH IS WEAKENING. A REINFORCING BLAST IS
MOVING ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CLOSER TO HOME WE FIND A
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS CUBA WITH ITS AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE PANAMA BIGHT THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN...JAMAICA...AND
EASTERN CUBA. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
ENTIRE KEYS AREA.

.FORECAST...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REGAIN DOMINANCE IN THE KEYS AREA TODAY
WHILE THE TROUGH TO THE EAST MOVES OUT. THIS IS THE REASON FOR THE
OVERALL WEAK FLOW THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN THE
FLOW WILL ONLY WEAKEN MORE. WITH THIS BEING SAID EXPECT THAT IF WE
HAVE INSOLATION BREAK THROUGH THE CIRRUS DECK...THE RESULTING HEATING
WILL BE ENOUGH TO SPUR SOME MESO SCALE SHOWERS WITH THE POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. ALSO UNDER WEAK FLOW EXPECT THAT ANY CUBAN LAND
BREEZE WILL HAVE LITTLE RESISTANCE OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT WAVE WILL BE
SLOWLY MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE WITH THE MAIN IMPACT ARRIVING MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THE RIDGE MOVING
NORTH...AND THE WESTWARD MOVING WAVE WILL PROVIDE AMPLE MOISTURE AND
LIFTING TO INDUCE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES...AND A WIND SURGE THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE KEYS AREA AND THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A ROBUST RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND COMBINE WITH A WESTWARD MOVING WAVE
CROSSING CUBA AND THE CARIBBEAN TUESDAY...RESULTING IN A WIND SURGE
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A CAUTIONARY STATEMENT MAY
BE REQUIRED TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN OR SMALL SHOWERS MAY BRING BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS TO THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS...AT LEAST THROUGH
THIS MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
NEARBY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THANKS TO A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN. HELD
ON TO VCSH AT BOTH LOCATIONS ON THAT ACCOUNT. A LIGHT
BREEZE...FAVORING THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST...WILL BECOME VARIABLE LATE
THIS EVENING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...1948...A HURRICANE INTENSIFIED
AS IT MOVED NORTH NORTHEAST OFF WESTERN CUBA CROSSING OVER BOCA CHICA
AS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE. THE SUSTAINED WIND AT BOCA CHICA WAS
MEASURED AT 122 MPH...WITH A PEAK WIND OF 140 MPH BEFORE THE
ANEMOMETER BLEW AWAY. IN KEY WEST THE MINIMUM PRESSURE WAS 28.45
INCHES OF MERCURY...963 MB...A PEAK WIND OF 84 MPH...WITH A 5 TO 6
FOOT STORM SURGE ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. THE RADIUS OF THE EYE OF THE
STORM WAS ONLY 10 MILES. KEY WEST MEASURED 4.53 INCHES OF RAINFALL
WHICH SET THE DAILY RECORD RAINFALL IN KEY WEST ON SEPTEMBER 21ST.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....11
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 211308
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
908 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
ONLY VERY LIGHT RAIN IS EVIDENT FROM THE KBYX RADAR THIS MORNING
UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. THE TROUGH TO THE EAST OF FLORIDA WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS THE DELMARVA COAST. THE ENERGY IN THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE TROUGH IS WEAKENING. A REINFORCING BLAST IS
MOVING ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CLOSER TO HOME WE FIND A
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS CUBA WITH ITS AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE PANAMA BIGHT THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN...JAMAICA...AND
EASTERN CUBA. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
ENTIRE KEYS AREA.

.FORECAST...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REGAIN DOMINANCE IN THE KEYS AREA TODAY
WHILE THE TROUGH TO THE EAST MOVES OUT. THIS IS THE REASON FOR THE
OVERALL WEAK FLOW THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN THE
FLOW WILL ONLY WEAKEN MORE. WITH THIS BEING SAID EXPECT THAT IF WE
HAVE INSOLATION BREAK THROUGH THE CIRRUS DECK...THE RESULTING HEATING
WILL BE ENOUGH TO SPUR SOME MESO SCALE SHOWERS WITH THE POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. ALSO UNDER WEAK FLOW EXPECT THAT ANY CUBAN LAND
BREEZE WILL HAVE LITTLE RESISTANCE OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT WAVE WILL BE
SLOWLY MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE WITH THE MAIN IMPACT ARRIVING MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THE RIDGE MOVING
NORTH...AND THE WESTWARD MOVING WAVE WILL PROVIDE AMPLE MOISTURE AND
LIFTING TO INDUCE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES...AND A WIND SURGE THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE KEYS AREA AND THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A ROBUST RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND COMBINE WITH A WESTWARD MOVING WAVE
CROSSING CUBA AND THE CARIBBEAN TUESDAY...RESULTING IN A WIND SURGE
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A CAUTIONARY STATEMENT MAY
BE REQUIRED TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN OR SMALL SHOWERS MAY BRING BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS TO THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS...AT LEAST THROUGH
THIS MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
NEARBY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THANKS TO A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN. HELD
ON TO VCSH AT BOTH LOCATIONS ON THAT ACCOUNT. A LIGHT
BREEZE...FAVORING THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST...WILL BECOME VARIABLE LATE
THIS EVENING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...1948...A HURRICANE INTENSIFIED
AS IT MOVED NORTH NORTHEAST OFF WESTERN CUBA CROSSING OVER BOCA CHICA
AS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE. THE SUSTAINED WIND AT BOCA CHICA WAS
MEASURED AT 122 MPH...WITH A PEAK WIND OF 140 MPH BEFORE THE
ANEMOMETER BLEW AWAY. IN KEY WEST THE MINIMUM PRESSURE WAS 28.45
INCHES OF MERCURY...963 MB...A PEAK WIND OF 84 MPH...WITH A 5 TO 6
FOOT STORM SURGE ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. THE RADIUS OF THE EYE OF THE
STORM WAS ONLY 10 MILES. KEY WEST MEASURED 4.53 INCHES OF RAINFALL
WHICH SET THE DAILY RECORD RAINFALL IN KEY WEST ON SEPTEMBER 21ST.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....11
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 211204
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
804 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.AVIATION...
POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN OR SMALL SHOWERS MAY BRING BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS TO THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS...AT LEAST THROUGH
THIS MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
NEARBY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THANKS TO A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN. HELD
ON TO VCSH AT BOTH LOCATIONS ON THAT ACCOUNT. A LIGHT BREEZE...FAVORING
THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST...WILL BECOME VARIABLE LATE THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

AVIATION...04

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 211204
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
804 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.AVIATION...
POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN OR SMALL SHOWERS MAY BRING BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS TO THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS...AT LEAST THROUGH
THIS MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
NEARBY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THANKS TO A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN. HELD
ON TO VCSH AT BOTH LOCATIONS ON THAT ACCOUNT. A LIGHT BREEZE...FAVORING
THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST...WILL BECOME VARIABLE LATE THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

AVIATION...04

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 210825
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
425 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...BASED ON AN ANALYSIS OF LAST EVENING`S RAOBS...HEIGHTS
CONTINUE TO RISE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. AS A
RESULT...A LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ROOTED IN A DEEP
ANTICYCLONIC GYRE CAMPED OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO. CONTAINED WITHIN THE
MEAN TROUGH ARE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES...READILY APPARENT AS MOISTURE
DIPOLES ON WATER VAPOR LOOPS. TRAILING BEHIND THE STRENGTHENING
SURFACE LOW EAST OF THE CAROLINAS IS A BROAD AND WEAK TROUGH
AXIS...WEAKLY PORTRAYED BY LOW LEVEL VORTICITY ANALYSES COURTESY OF
CIMSS. STRONG CONVECTION EMERGED OFF THE CUBAN COAST THIS
EVENING...BUT HAS SINCE WEAKENED WITHIN THE DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR
80. WINDS HAVE BEEN CONTAMINATED BY THE CUBAN OUTFLOWS...BUT TEND TO
BE FROM THE SOUTH AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...THE PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE
MUCH TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE MEAN TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF WILL RECEDE
SLIGHTLY AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO REGAIN MARINE REAL
ESTATE. LOW LEVEL STREAMLINES WILL BE ANTICYCLONIC WITHIN A MARITIME
TROPICAL ATMOSPHERE. THUS...LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF NORTHWARD MOVING CUBAN
CONVECTION TONIGHT. STEERING FLOW WILL BE WEAKER TONIGHT COMPARED TO
LAST EVENING...SO DO NOT BELIEVE CUBA WILL MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS
THE ISLANDS. ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...PLENTY OF SUPPORT FOR A
REINVIGORATING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL DIVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. THE CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL STREAMLINES...WHICH UNTIL NOW
HAVE REMAINED NORTH AND WEST OF OUR CWA...WILL PRESS SOUTHEAST AS THE
MEAN TROUGH EXPANDS. AT THE SAME TIME...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF LOW
LEVEL UNDULATIONS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE KEYS. EXPECT WETTER THAN
NORMAL CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY...ACCOMPANIED
BY INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND MODERATED TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE WEAK WAVE TRAIN
WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
AMPLITUDE OF THESE WAVES WILL DAMPEN WITH TIME AS CONTINENTAL HIGH
PRESSURE MERGES WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH...RESULTING IN A TIGHTENED
MASS GRADIENT FROM THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.
FRESH EASTERLY BREEZES WILL SLACKEN LATER IN THE WORK WEEK. RAIN
CHANCES HAVE BEEN TRENDED DOWN IN THE LONG TERM TO CONFORM TO MORE
CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AS A RIDGE AXIS
SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THEREAFTER...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXPAND AND STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS
TODAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT...TENDING OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST...BECOMING VARIABLE
THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  87  79  87  79 / 30 40 30 50
MARATHON  88  80  88  79 / 30 40 30 50

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....11
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 210825
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
425 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...BASED ON AN ANALYSIS OF LAST EVENING`S RAOBS...HEIGHTS
CONTINUE TO RISE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. AS A
RESULT...A LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ROOTED IN A DEEP
ANTICYCLONIC GYRE CAMPED OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO. CONTAINED WITHIN THE
MEAN TROUGH ARE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES...READILY APPARENT AS MOISTURE
DIPOLES ON WATER VAPOR LOOPS. TRAILING BEHIND THE STRENGTHENING
SURFACE LOW EAST OF THE CAROLINAS IS A BROAD AND WEAK TROUGH
AXIS...WEAKLY PORTRAYED BY LOW LEVEL VORTICITY ANALYSES COURTESY OF
CIMSS. STRONG CONVECTION EMERGED OFF THE CUBAN COAST THIS
EVENING...BUT HAS SINCE WEAKENED WITHIN THE DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR
80. WINDS HAVE BEEN CONTAMINATED BY THE CUBAN OUTFLOWS...BUT TEND TO
BE FROM THE SOUTH AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...THE PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE
MUCH TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE MEAN TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF WILL RECEDE
SLIGHTLY AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO REGAIN MARINE REAL
ESTATE. LOW LEVEL STREAMLINES WILL BE ANTICYCLONIC WITHIN A MARITIME
TROPICAL ATMOSPHERE. THUS...LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF NORTHWARD MOVING CUBAN
CONVECTION TONIGHT. STEERING FLOW WILL BE WEAKER TONIGHT COMPARED TO
LAST EVENING...SO DO NOT BELIEVE CUBA WILL MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS
THE ISLANDS. ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...PLENTY OF SUPPORT FOR A
REINVIGORATING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL DIVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. THE CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL STREAMLINES...WHICH UNTIL NOW
HAVE REMAINED NORTH AND WEST OF OUR CWA...WILL PRESS SOUTHEAST AS THE
MEAN TROUGH EXPANDS. AT THE SAME TIME...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF LOW
LEVEL UNDULATIONS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE KEYS. EXPECT WETTER THAN
NORMAL CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY...ACCOMPANIED
BY INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND MODERATED TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE WEAK WAVE TRAIN
WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
AMPLITUDE OF THESE WAVES WILL DAMPEN WITH TIME AS CONTINENTAL HIGH
PRESSURE MERGES WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH...RESULTING IN A TIGHTENED
MASS GRADIENT FROM THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.
FRESH EASTERLY BREEZES WILL SLACKEN LATER IN THE WORK WEEK. RAIN
CHANCES HAVE BEEN TRENDED DOWN IN THE LONG TERM TO CONFORM TO MORE
CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AS A RIDGE AXIS
SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THEREAFTER...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXPAND AND STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS
TODAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT...TENDING OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST...BECOMING VARIABLE
THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  87  79  87  79 / 30 40 30 50
MARATHON  88  80  88  79 / 30 40 30 50

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....11
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 210132
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
930 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB)...LATEST
AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID AS OF 900 PM OVERLAID WITH MODEL
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A UNSEASONABLY DEEP MID
AND UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CONUS. A SHORTWAVE...AT 500 MB...IS TRYING TO PINCH OFF
OVER THE GEORGIA SOUTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT. ACROSS THE LOWER
LATITUDES...THE CENTER OF A WESTWARD MIGRATING TUTT (TROPICAL
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH) CELL IS MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS...AS OF 900
PM...DEVELOPING YET WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS OCCURRING WELL EAST OF
JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA...ALONG A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH SNAKES
SOUTHWEST TO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AT THE SAME TIME...A WEAK
NON-TROPICAL SURFACE LOW IS ALSO OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO ABOUT 150 MILES WEST OF KEY WEST. THE 00Z SOUNDING
ILLUSTRATED A MOIST LOWER TO MID TROPOSPHERE...(WITH PWAT RIGHT AT
2.00)...AND GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW EXHIBITED
FROM THE SURFACE TO 3000 FEET AGL...WHICH PROMPTLY BECOMES SOUTHWEST
TO WEST AND FRESHENING A BIT ABOVE THAT. YET DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF
DEEP MOISTURE IN THE LOWER TO MID TROPOSPHERE BENEATH AN UNSTABLE
MID AND UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW...MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS PRESENTLY WELL NORTHEAST AND WEST OF THE KEYS...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP CUBAN CONVECTION ALONG LAND
BOUNDARIES...WHICH IS ON THE EDGE OF THE OUTERMOST FLORIDA STRAITS.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE ISLANDS ARE NEAR 80 DEGREES...WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. C-MAN STATIONS ARE RECORDING NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY...WITH ISLAND SENSORS NEAR
10 MPH.

.FORECAST...OVERNIGHT...THE SURFACE TO 900 MB SURFACE TROUGH THAT
WAS OVER THE PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON...(RESPONSIBLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN...WINDS...AND LIGHTNING IN SOUTH FLORIDA)...HAD MANAGED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE KEYS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND IS NOW JUST SOUTH OF THE
KEYS ATTM. HENCE...THIS IS ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME NORTHWEST TO
NORTHERLY FROM THE SURFACE TO 900 MB. AGAIN...THIS WAS LIKELY DUE TO
THE ABOVE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW NOW NORTHEAST OF JACKSONVILLE...AND
THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL WEST OF THE KEYS. SO THEREFORE...HIGHER
CONCENTRATIONS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD REMAIN AWAY FROM THE
KEYS. LATEST AVAILABLE MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO ILLUSTRATE AN
UNFAVORABLE 0-6 KM AVERAGE STORM MOTION VECTOR...MEANING ACTIVITY IN
THE STRAITS WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST TO EAST...THUS REMAINING
IN THE STRAITS. SO HAVE ALREADY TRIMMED BACK POPS TO ISOLATED
EVERYWHERE IN AN EARLIER UPDATE...EXCEPT ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. MVFR
OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE CONCEIVABLE AT EYW SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
POSSIBILITY IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE EYW TERMINAL
FORECAST. SUSTAINED NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS FROM JUST
OFF THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 3000 FEET WILL VEER TO SOUTHEAST AND
DECREASE TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 2005...HURRICANE
RITA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED AS IT PROGRESSED TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS. STORM TIDES THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
ISLAND CHAIN WERE 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. NUMEROUS STREETS
IN THE LOWER KEYS WERE COMPLETELY IMPASSIBLE DUE TO STORM SURGE
FLOODING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WERE MEASURED THROUGHOUT THE
FLORIDA KEYS. THE LOWEST PRESSURE AND HIGHEST WINDS WERE RECORDED AT
SAND KEY LIGHT...JUST BEFORE THE STATION FAILED. THEY WERE 29.19
INCHES OF MERCURY AND SUSTAINED EAST WINDS OF 73 MILES PER HOUR...
WITH A PEAK WIND GUST OF 92 MILES PER HOUR RESPECTIVELY. THERE WERE
NO FATALITIES IN THE FLORIDA KEYS...ALTHOUGH THERE WAS ONE SERIOUS
INJURY IN KEY WEST DUE TO WAVE OVER WASH AS STORM SURGE WAS BUILDING.

&&

&&

.MARINE...OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY...A NEARBY TROUGH WILL KEEP LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS...TENDING MOSTLY SOUTHWESTERLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT
AND SATURDAY...BUT OF COURSE WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND
AROUND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY.


&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/GRIDS.............DAF
AVIATION/NOWCASTS/CLIMATE.......BS
DATA COLLECTION/UPPER AIR.......BF

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 210132
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
930 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB)...LATEST
AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID AS OF 900 PM OVERLAID WITH MODEL
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A UNSEASONABLY DEEP MID
AND UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CONUS. A SHORTWAVE...AT 500 MB...IS TRYING TO PINCH OFF
OVER THE GEORGIA SOUTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT. ACROSS THE LOWER
LATITUDES...THE CENTER OF A WESTWARD MIGRATING TUTT (TROPICAL
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH) CELL IS MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS...AS OF 900
PM...DEVELOPING YET WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS OCCURRING WELL EAST OF
JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA...ALONG A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH SNAKES
SOUTHWEST TO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AT THE SAME TIME...A WEAK
NON-TROPICAL SURFACE LOW IS ALSO OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO ABOUT 150 MILES WEST OF KEY WEST. THE 00Z SOUNDING
ILLUSTRATED A MOIST LOWER TO MID TROPOSPHERE...(WITH PWAT RIGHT AT
2.00)...AND GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW EXHIBITED
FROM THE SURFACE TO 3000 FEET AGL...WHICH PROMPTLY BECOMES SOUTHWEST
TO WEST AND FRESHENING A BIT ABOVE THAT. YET DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF
DEEP MOISTURE IN THE LOWER TO MID TROPOSPHERE BENEATH AN UNSTABLE
MID AND UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW...MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS PRESENTLY WELL NORTHEAST AND WEST OF THE KEYS...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP CUBAN CONVECTION ALONG LAND
BOUNDARIES...WHICH IS ON THE EDGE OF THE OUTERMOST FLORIDA STRAITS.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE ISLANDS ARE NEAR 80 DEGREES...WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. C-MAN STATIONS ARE RECORDING NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY...WITH ISLAND SENSORS NEAR
10 MPH.

.FORECAST...OVERNIGHT...THE SURFACE TO 900 MB SURFACE TROUGH THAT
WAS OVER THE PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON...(RESPONSIBLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN...WINDS...AND LIGHTNING IN SOUTH FLORIDA)...HAD MANAGED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE KEYS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND IS NOW JUST SOUTH OF THE
KEYS ATTM. HENCE...THIS IS ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME NORTHWEST TO
NORTHERLY FROM THE SURFACE TO 900 MB. AGAIN...THIS WAS LIKELY DUE TO
THE ABOVE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW NOW NORTHEAST OF JACKSONVILLE...AND
THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL WEST OF THE KEYS. SO THEREFORE...HIGHER
CONCENTRATIONS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD REMAIN AWAY FROM THE
KEYS. LATEST AVAILABLE MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO ILLUSTRATE AN
UNFAVORABLE 0-6 KM AVERAGE STORM MOTION VECTOR...MEANING ACTIVITY IN
THE STRAITS WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST TO EAST...THUS REMAINING
IN THE STRAITS. SO HAVE ALREADY TRIMMED BACK POPS TO ISOLATED
EVERYWHERE IN AN EARLIER UPDATE...EXCEPT ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. MVFR
OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE CONCEIVABLE AT EYW SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
POSSIBILITY IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE EYW TERMINAL
FORECAST. SUSTAINED NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS FROM JUST
OFF THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 3000 FEET WILL VEER TO SOUTHEAST AND
DECREASE TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 2005...HURRICANE
RITA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED AS IT PROGRESSED TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS. STORM TIDES THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
ISLAND CHAIN WERE 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. NUMEROUS STREETS
IN THE LOWER KEYS WERE COMPLETELY IMPASSIBLE DUE TO STORM SURGE
FLOODING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WERE MEASURED THROUGHOUT THE
FLORIDA KEYS. THE LOWEST PRESSURE AND HIGHEST WINDS WERE RECORDED AT
SAND KEY LIGHT...JUST BEFORE THE STATION FAILED. THEY WERE 29.19
INCHES OF MERCURY AND SUSTAINED EAST WINDS OF 73 MILES PER HOUR...
WITH A PEAK WIND GUST OF 92 MILES PER HOUR RESPECTIVELY. THERE WERE
NO FATALITIES IN THE FLORIDA KEYS...ALTHOUGH THERE WAS ONE SERIOUS
INJURY IN KEY WEST DUE TO WAVE OVER WASH AS STORM SURGE WAS BUILDING.

&&

&&

.MARINE...OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY...A NEARBY TROUGH WILL KEEP LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS...TENDING MOSTLY SOUTHWESTERLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT
AND SATURDAY...BUT OF COURSE WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND
AROUND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY.


&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/GRIDS.............DAF
AVIATION/NOWCASTS/CLIMATE.......BS
DATA COLLECTION/UPPER AIR.......BF

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 201845
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
245 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SATELLITE INTERROGATION ON THE CONUS SCALE SHOWING AN UPPER LOW OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST...ANOTHER OVER OLD MEXICO...AND A DEVELOPING
UPPER LOW ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THESE SYSTEMS
ARE DRIVING A RIDGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WHERE A PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS
KICKING UP ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH OF NEW ORLEANS. THERE ARE STILL
DISCRETE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WELL AHEAD OF THE MAIN BODY OF
ACTIVITY. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT THE ISLAND
TERMINALS...AND AT THE C-MAN STATIONS SOUTH OF THE ISLAND
CHAIN...WITH NEAR 10 KNOTS NORTH.

.FORECAST...
THE BOOK END LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO PINCH THE RIDGE BETWEEN AND PULL
THE RIDGE AXIS SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. FOR US THIS MEANS THE LOW LEVEL
CONFLUENCE WILL BE JUST TO OUR WEST AND NORTH. HAVE ELECTED TO KEEP
MIDDLE CHANCE RAIN SOUTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN...HIGH CHANCE ALONG THE
ISLAND CHAIN AND THE BAY AND GULF SIDE WATERS...WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON THE GULF WATERS WEST OF MAINLAND
MONROE COUNTY TO THE DRY TORTUGAS OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY AND AFTER HAVE
MADE SLIGHT CHANGES DUE TO A FEW WEAK WAVES MOVING TROUGH THE
WESTERLIES...AND THE ATLANTIC RIDGE NOSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN...CUBA...AND THE STRAITS. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL INCREASE AS
THE FIRST WAVE APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HAVE MODIFIED
RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY TO REFLECT THE PASSING
OF THE WAVE. THE SECOND WAVE WILL ARRIVE EARLY SATURDAY AND WILL GO
HIGH END CHANCE AGAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AWAY FROM THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST THROUGH MONDAY. THERE ARE A FEW WEAK WAVES
UPSTREAM OF THE REGION IN THE TROPICS THAT WILL PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE KEYS AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE NEXT WEEK. THESE WAVES WILL
COMBINE WITH THE WEAK TROUGH NEAR THE AREA TO KEEP SCATTERED RAIN
AND PRODUCE PERIODS WITH SURGING WINDS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT. AT
THIS TIME WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY CAUTIONARY OR ADVISORY STATEMENTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...AND HAVE
INSERTED VICINITY TSTM AT BOTH LOCATIONS ON THAT ACCOUNT. VICINITY
SHOWERS HAS ALSO BEEN MAINTAINED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND WILL BE VARIABLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...2005...HURRICANE RITA PASSED
THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...ABOUT 40 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH OF KEY
WEST PRODUCING STORM TIDE 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL...FLOODING
MANY STREETS ALONG THE LOWER KEYS. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE IN KEY WEST
AS RITA PASSED WAS 995.3 MB / 29.39 INCHES OF MERCURY...WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 62 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 76 MPH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  79  90  80  89 / 50 40 40 40
MARATHON  79  91  80  90 / 50 40 40 40

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....11
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 201845
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
245 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SATELLITE INTERROGATION ON THE CONUS SCALE SHOWING AN UPPER LOW OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST...ANOTHER OVER OLD MEXICO...AND A DEVELOPING
UPPER LOW ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THESE SYSTEMS
ARE DRIVING A RIDGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WHERE A PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS
KICKING UP ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH OF NEW ORLEANS. THERE ARE STILL
DISCRETE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WELL AHEAD OF THE MAIN BODY OF
ACTIVITY. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT THE ISLAND
TERMINALS...AND AT THE C-MAN STATIONS SOUTH OF THE ISLAND
CHAIN...WITH NEAR 10 KNOTS NORTH.

.FORECAST...
THE BOOK END LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO PINCH THE RIDGE BETWEEN AND PULL
THE RIDGE AXIS SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. FOR US THIS MEANS THE LOW LEVEL
CONFLUENCE WILL BE JUST TO OUR WEST AND NORTH. HAVE ELECTED TO KEEP
MIDDLE CHANCE RAIN SOUTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN...HIGH CHANCE ALONG THE
ISLAND CHAIN AND THE BAY AND GULF SIDE WATERS...WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON THE GULF WATERS WEST OF MAINLAND
MONROE COUNTY TO THE DRY TORTUGAS OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY AND AFTER HAVE
MADE SLIGHT CHANGES DUE TO A FEW WEAK WAVES MOVING TROUGH THE
WESTERLIES...AND THE ATLANTIC RIDGE NOSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN...CUBA...AND THE STRAITS. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL INCREASE AS
THE FIRST WAVE APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HAVE MODIFIED
RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY TO REFLECT THE PASSING
OF THE WAVE. THE SECOND WAVE WILL ARRIVE EARLY SATURDAY AND WILL GO
HIGH END CHANCE AGAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AWAY FROM THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST THROUGH MONDAY. THERE ARE A FEW WEAK WAVES
UPSTREAM OF THE REGION IN THE TROPICS THAT WILL PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE KEYS AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE NEXT WEEK. THESE WAVES WILL
COMBINE WITH THE WEAK TROUGH NEAR THE AREA TO KEEP SCATTERED RAIN
AND PRODUCE PERIODS WITH SURGING WINDS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT. AT
THIS TIME WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY CAUTIONARY OR ADVISORY STATEMENTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...AND HAVE
INSERTED VICINITY TSTM AT BOTH LOCATIONS ON THAT ACCOUNT. VICINITY
SHOWERS HAS ALSO BEEN MAINTAINED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND WILL BE VARIABLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...2005...HURRICANE RITA PASSED
THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...ABOUT 40 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH OF KEY
WEST PRODUCING STORM TIDE 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL...FLOODING
MANY STREETS ALONG THE LOWER KEYS. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE IN KEY WEST
AS RITA PASSED WAS 995.3 MB / 29.39 INCHES OF MERCURY...WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 62 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 76 MPH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  79  90  80  89 / 50 40 40 40
MARATHON  79  91  80  90 / 50 40 40 40

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....11
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 201338
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
938 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
A LOOK AT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH NICE FEATHERING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COASTAL STATES THIS MORNING. THERE IS SOME ENERGY LEFT IN THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...BUT THIS IS MUCH WEAKER.
THE KBYX RADAR IS SHOWING DISCRETE SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING WELL SOUTH OF THE TROUGH ALONG OLD BOUNDARIES LURKING OVER
THE KEYS AREA THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
NEAR 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS AS SHOWERS PASS
NEARBY AT THE C-MAN REPORTING STATIONS SURROUNDING THE ISLAND
CHAIN...AND 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS.

.FORECAST...
THE EXPECTATION IS FOR THE TROUGH TO FRACTURE DUE TO THE SHORT WAVE
CROSSING NORTH FLORIDA TODAY. THE REASONING FOR THIS TROUGH FRACTURE
IS THE COMBINATION OF THE TROUGH TO THE EAST...AND THE MID TO UPPER
LOW OVER NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. THE THESE TWO SYSTEMS ARE DRIVING
A MID LEVEL RIDGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE MORE
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE OVER NORTH FLORIDA WILL WIN THE POWER STRUGGLE
WHILE THE REMAINING TROUGH AXIS TO THE WEST LINGERS OVER THE GULF.
WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE MODIFIED RAIN CHANCES FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT
HOLDING ON TO HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER THE LOW KEYS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS...WITH MODERATE CHANCE FOR THE REST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN...AND
WILL KEEP NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE GULF
MARINE ZONES WEST OF MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. WILL
UPDATE THE TEXT PRODUCTS SOON TO REFLECT THESE CHANGES.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AWAY FROM THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST THROUGH MONDAY. THERE ARE A FEW WEAK WAVES
UPSTREAM OF THE REGION IN THE TROPICS THAT WILL PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE KEYS AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE NEXT WEEK. THESE WAVES WILL
COMBINE WITH THE WEAK TROUGHING NEAR THE AREA TO KEEP SCATTERED RAIN
AND PRODUCE PERIODS WITH SURGING WINDS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT. AT
THIS TIME WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY CAUTIONARY OR ADVISORY STATEMENTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS
THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY UNTIL THE EVENING...AND HAVE
INSERTED VICINITY TSTM AT BOTH LOCATIONS ON THAT ACCOUNT.
A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND THIS MORNING WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON...THE VARIABLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...2005...HURRICANE RITA PASSED
THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...ABOUT 40 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH OF KEY
WEST PRODUCING STORM TIDE 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL...FLOODING
MANY STREETS ALONG THE LOWER KEYS. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE IN KEY WEST
AS RITA PASSED WAS 995.3 MB / 29.39 INCHES OF MERCURY...WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 62 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 76 MPH.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....11
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 201338
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
938 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
A LOOK AT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH NICE FEATHERING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COASTAL STATES THIS MORNING. THERE IS SOME ENERGY LEFT IN THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...BUT THIS IS MUCH WEAKER.
THE KBYX RADAR IS SHOWING DISCRETE SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING WELL SOUTH OF THE TROUGH ALONG OLD BOUNDARIES LURKING OVER
THE KEYS AREA THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
NEAR 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS AS SHOWERS PASS
NEARBY AT THE C-MAN REPORTING STATIONS SURROUNDING THE ISLAND
CHAIN...AND 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS.

.FORECAST...
THE EXPECTATION IS FOR THE TROUGH TO FRACTURE DUE TO THE SHORT WAVE
CROSSING NORTH FLORIDA TODAY. THE REASONING FOR THIS TROUGH FRACTURE
IS THE COMBINATION OF THE TROUGH TO THE EAST...AND THE MID TO UPPER
LOW OVER NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. THE THESE TWO SYSTEMS ARE DRIVING
A MID LEVEL RIDGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE MORE
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE OVER NORTH FLORIDA WILL WIN THE POWER STRUGGLE
WHILE THE REMAINING TROUGH AXIS TO THE WEST LINGERS OVER THE GULF.
WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE MODIFIED RAIN CHANCES FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT
HOLDING ON TO HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER THE LOW KEYS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS...WITH MODERATE CHANCE FOR THE REST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN...AND
WILL KEEP NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE GULF
MARINE ZONES WEST OF MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. WILL
UPDATE THE TEXT PRODUCTS SOON TO REFLECT THESE CHANGES.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AWAY FROM THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST THROUGH MONDAY. THERE ARE A FEW WEAK WAVES
UPSTREAM OF THE REGION IN THE TROPICS THAT WILL PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE KEYS AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE NEXT WEEK. THESE WAVES WILL
COMBINE WITH THE WEAK TROUGHING NEAR THE AREA TO KEEP SCATTERED RAIN
AND PRODUCE PERIODS WITH SURGING WINDS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT. AT
THIS TIME WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY CAUTIONARY OR ADVISORY STATEMENTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS
THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY UNTIL THE EVENING...AND HAVE
INSERTED VICINITY TSTM AT BOTH LOCATIONS ON THAT ACCOUNT.
A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND THIS MORNING WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON...THE VARIABLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...2005...HURRICANE RITA PASSED
THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...ABOUT 40 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH OF KEY
WEST PRODUCING STORM TIDE 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL...FLOODING
MANY STREETS ALONG THE LOWER KEYS. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE IN KEY WEST
AS RITA PASSED WAS 995.3 MB / 29.39 INCHES OF MERCURY...WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 62 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 76 MPH.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....11
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 201208
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
808 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS
THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY UNTIL THE EVENING...AND HAVE
INSERTED VICINITY TSTM AT BOTH LOCATIONS ON THAT ACCOUNT.
A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND THIS MORNING WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON...THE VARIABLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

&&

$$

AVIATION...04

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 200846
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
446 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...MID LATITUDE ENERGY IS READILY APPARENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...CARVING OUT LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A COMPACT ANTICYCLONE SPINS ACROSS
CENTRAL MEXICO. THE RESULTING UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINES DEPICT A BROAD
SWATH OF DIFFLUENT FLOW FROM NEAR THE YUCATAN TO EAST OF THE
CAROLINAS. AT THE SURFACE...THE LOWEST PRESSURE EXTEND EAST FROM THE
CENTRAL GULF TO EAST OF PALM BEACH...ROUGHLY SIMILAR TO THE LOW LEVEL
VORTICITY ANALYSES FROM CIMSS. SURFACE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...BUT WHISPER FROM THE SOUTHEAST. SKIES ARE CLOUDY AND THE
RADAR IS SURPRISINGLY QUIET...EXCEPT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE DISTANT FLORIDA STRAITS.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WILL STRETCH AND FRACTURE TODAY...THE MAIN CORE
SLIDING EAST...WHILE THE EQUATORWARD PIECES DIVE SOUTH INTO THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE MAIN CORE WILL RESULT IN
CYCLOGENESIS EAST OF THE ATLANTIC BIGHT...WHILE THE DIVING ENERGY
WILL ENERGIZE THE CONFLUENT FLOW WHICH ARCS FROM NEAR THE YUCATAN TO
SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA. DESPITE ALL THIS NEARBY ACTION...THE FLORIDA
KEYS WILL REMAIN JUST WITHIN THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICS.
RAIN CHANCES TODAY AND TONIGHT (ADVERTISED AS 60/50 PERCENT) WILL
EMANATE FROM CUBAN OUTFLOWS AND CENTRAL GULF COLD POOLS...BOTH WHICH
ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY DUE TO THE
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ACTING UPON LIKELY CONVECTION ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF. USING ENSEMBLE MEANS AS A GUIDE...THE LOW LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE KEYS SUNDAY NIGHT...OPENING UP
THE EASTERLIES AND MORE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES NEAR 30 PERCENT.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...SEVERAL UNDULATIONS WILL
PASS THROUGH THE KEYS THIS COMING WORKWEEK...TIMING WILL BE HARD TO
PIN DOWN. THE FIRST UNDULATION WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AND RESULTING IN A SURGE OF WINDS ON
ITS BACKSIDE. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLOW TREND
DOWN IN RAIN CHANCES...WHICH CONFORMS TO A RETURN TO CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BREEZES THROUGH SUNDAY. A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS TODAY. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS DUE TO A TROUGH
LOCATED NORTH OF OUR AREA. TIMING IS CURRENTLY QUITE UNCERTAIN.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...TENDING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST...TURNING
SOUTHWEST TO WEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  85  79  89  80 / 60 50 50 40
MARATHON  86  79  90  80 / 60 50 50 40

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....11
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

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