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000
FXUS62 KKEY 300228
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1028 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - THE TAIL END OF A MID LATITUDE TROUGH IS SLOWLY MIGRATING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS FLORIDA AND ADJACENT BODIES OF WATERS. THIS IS
DRIVING A LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DRY AIR AND
SOME MID LEVEL SHEAR IS GIVING SHOWERS A DIFFICULT TIME AT SUSTAINING
THEMSELVES...EVEN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. AT THE MOMENT...NO SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS PRESENT WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...A SWATH OF
MORE UNIFORM WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND INCREASED MOISTURE JUST
NORTH OF OUR AREA CAN BE SEEN IN BOTH PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY...AND A SWATH OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MIGRATING SOUTHEASTWARD.

SHORT TERM UPDATE (OVERNIGHT) - THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS FLORIDA
AND SURROUNDING WATERS...AND THE STEERING FLOW IS EXPECT TO BECOME
MORE WESTERLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
OUR NORTH SHOULD THEN BE STEERED MORE EASTWARD. IN ADDITION...DESPITE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...DRIER AIR WILL HOLD IN PLACE ACROSS THE
KEYS. AS A RESULT...RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN SLIGHT. THE LIGHT BUT MORE DEFINED FLOW SHOULD KEEP MOST
ISLAND LOCATIONS UP IN THE LOWER 80S...WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S. WILL ONLY REMOVE TRANSITIONAL WORDING IN AN
EVENING ZONE UPDATE.

&&

.MARINE...
OVER ALL...LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS KEYS WATERS
OVERNIGHT. THE SUBTLE WIND SURGE NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WILL GRADUALLY EASE BACK IN LINE WITH REMAINING KEYS WATERS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WILL BE MADE IN THE
EVENING MARINE UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
UNTIL 12Z/30TH...OUTSIDE OF A BRIEF MVFR ENCOUNTER OR TWO...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS.
MOSTLY WEST WINDS OF LESS THAN 10 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE
ISLAND AIRPORTS.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....APA

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 300228
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1028 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - THE TAIL END OF A MID LATITUDE TROUGH IS SLOWLY MIGRATING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS FLORIDA AND ADJACENT BODIES OF WATERS. THIS IS
DRIVING A LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DRY AIR AND
SOME MID LEVEL SHEAR IS GIVING SHOWERS A DIFFICULT TIME AT SUSTAINING
THEMSELVES...EVEN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. AT THE MOMENT...NO SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS PRESENT WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...A SWATH OF
MORE UNIFORM WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND INCREASED MOISTURE JUST
NORTH OF OUR AREA CAN BE SEEN IN BOTH PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY...AND A SWATH OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MIGRATING SOUTHEASTWARD.

SHORT TERM UPDATE (OVERNIGHT) - THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS FLORIDA
AND SURROUNDING WATERS...AND THE STEERING FLOW IS EXPECT TO BECOME
MORE WESTERLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
OUR NORTH SHOULD THEN BE STEERED MORE EASTWARD. IN ADDITION...DESPITE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...DRIER AIR WILL HOLD IN PLACE ACROSS THE
KEYS. AS A RESULT...RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN SLIGHT. THE LIGHT BUT MORE DEFINED FLOW SHOULD KEEP MOST
ISLAND LOCATIONS UP IN THE LOWER 80S...WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S. WILL ONLY REMOVE TRANSITIONAL WORDING IN AN
EVENING ZONE UPDATE.

&&

.MARINE...
OVER ALL...LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS KEYS WATERS
OVERNIGHT. THE SUBTLE WIND SURGE NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WILL GRADUALLY EASE BACK IN LINE WITH REMAINING KEYS WATERS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WILL BE MADE IN THE
EVENING MARINE UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
UNTIL 12Z/30TH...OUTSIDE OF A BRIEF MVFR ENCOUNTER OR TWO...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS.
MOSTLY WEST WINDS OF LESS THAN 10 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE
ISLAND AIRPORTS.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....APA

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.KEYWEST.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST






000
FXUS62 KKEY 291835
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
235 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB)...LATEST
AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY AS OF 200 PM
THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO DEPICT AN EXCEPTIONALLY DEEP MID AND
UPPER LONGWAVE PATTERN FOR LATE IN JULY...WITH THE AXIS OF AN EAST
COAST TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTH CAROLINA LOW COUNTRY
FROM AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
JAMES BAY. TO THE SOUTH OF THAT...THERE REMAINS AN ELONGATED EAST TO
WEST MID AND UPPER WARM CORE ANTICYCLONIC RIDGE SITUATED FROM THE
PECOS RIVER VALLEY OF FAR WEST TEXAS EAST SOUTHEASTWARD TO ACROSS
SOUTHERN FLORIDA THENCE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ALONG 27 NORTH.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER LEVELS...(SURFACE TO 700 MB) LATEST
IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH AVAILABLE MARINE AND LAND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS AS OF 200 PM DETAILS A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTHWARDS THEN WESTWARDS ALONG THE THE LENGTH OF THE
ENTIRE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM A COOL 999 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR
PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND. AS SUCH...A LIGHT TO GENTLE WESTERLY FLOW
PATTERN IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
SURROUNDING WATERS.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 200 PM...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY RIGHT OVER THE
LENGTH OF THE KEYS ISLAND CHAIN...BUT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
CLEARLY DELINEATES NARROW WELL DEVELOPED CUMULUS CLOUD LINES JUST
INSIDE HAWK CHANNEL PARALLELS TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. KEY WEST
RADAR DOES DETECT SHOWERS WITHIN THIS CLOUDLINE...AS WELL AS OTHER
SHOWERS ON CLOUDLINES SITUATED IN THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS.

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
MID AND UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE BREAKING DOWN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW ANALYZED ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARDS DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BEFORE LOOSING ANY IDENTITY
DURING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT OF THIS
FEATURE...LOWER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW...SURFACE TO 700 MB...WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE LENGTH OF THE KEYS ISLAND CHAIN. BUT GIVEN THE
DEARTH OF DRIER AIR IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS...THE BEST SHOT FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN DOWNWIND OF
SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA...OR ACROSS THE UPPER KEYS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS. HENCE A SPLIT WHICH WAS PERFORMED ON THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST
CYCLE WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT TWO PERIODS.

SINCE THE AVAILABLE MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE
PWAT(PRECIPITABLE WATER) NEAR 1.50 INCHES...CUMULUS CLOUD LINES WILL
REQUIRE A FAVORABLE ALIGNMENT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVEL WINDS.
SO CONFIDENCE IN GOOD CUMULUS LINE FORMATION RIGHT OVER THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE KEYS REMAINS TO LOW TO INCREASE POPS...THEREFORE SLIGHT
CHANCE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE PRIMARILY DUE TO
BOUNDARY SCALE INTERACTIONS IN THE LOWER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW. THE
OTHER STORY IS THAT GIVEN LIGHT TO GENTLE WESTERLY
FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY...AND GIVEN THE VERY HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...THE HEAT
INDEX MAY REACH AROUND 105 DEGREES OVER THE ISLANDS.

ON THE THURSDAY THE WINDS WILL COLLAPSE AGAIN ACROSS THE KEYS AND
SURROUNDING WATERS...WHICH WILL PROVIDE BETTER CONDITIONS FOR
CUMULUS CLOUD LINE FORMATION GIVEN AVAILABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE...SO KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS ATTM.

EXTENDED...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ALL AVAILABLE INDICATIONS ARE
SUGGESTING THAT TYPICALLY WEAKER LOWER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...HOWEVER...SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES ARE
HINTED IN THE MODELS...AND GIVEN MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ILLUSTRATION OF AROUND 2.00 INCHES COLUMNAR PWAT...WILL MAINTAIN
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS IS
ACTUALLY ONLY 10 PERCENT ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY AS WE ENTER AUGUST. THE
TROPICS REMAIN QUIET WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WELL DEVELOPED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC BEYOND 7 DAYS IN TIME
FROM ANY IMPACTS TO THIS REGION...IF THERE WILL EVER BE ANY AT ALL.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT TO GENTLE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE
EVENING WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT
TO GENTLE SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY
FAVOR CUMULUS CLOUD LINES AGAIN IN HAWK CHANNEL...SO CONDITIONS MAY
BE CONDUCIVE FOR ROUNDS OF WATERSPOUTS AGAIN. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS DURING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BECOME GENTLE AND
SOUTHEASTERLY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH MODERATE BREEZES
POSSIBLE FOR A TIME SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
OF AROUND 10 KNOTS AT THE EYW AND MTH TERMINALS. STEERING FLOW OF
WEST TO NORTHWEST ORIGIN IS NORMALLY ASSOCIATED WITH BELOW NORMAL
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. SATELLITE BASED MOISTURE PRODUCTS INDICATE
LAYERS OF DRY AIR WILL INHIBIT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE LEE OF
THE ISLAND CHAIN. HOWEVER...COLLISIONS BETWEEN CUMULUS LINES HAVE
BEEN EFFECTIVE THIS MORNING IN PRODUCING PRECIPITATION...AND
ADDITIONAL COLLISIONS ARE LIKELY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLIMATE...ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1996...1.23
INCHES OF RAIN FELL AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THIS SET THE
DAILY RECORD FOR MAXIMUM RAINFALL MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON JULY 29TH.
RAINFALL RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  83  92  82  93  82 /  20  20  20  30  30
MARATHON  82  94  81  91  82 /  20  20  20  30  30

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/DIGITAL............DAF
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....................CLR
UPPER AIR/DATA ACQUISITION............BF/MP/SC

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST















000
FXUS62 KKEY 291835
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
235 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB)...LATEST
AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY AS OF 200 PM
THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO DEPICT AN EXCEPTIONALLY DEEP MID AND
UPPER LONGWAVE PATTERN FOR LATE IN JULY...WITH THE AXIS OF AN EAST
COAST TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTH CAROLINA LOW COUNTRY
FROM AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
JAMES BAY. TO THE SOUTH OF THAT...THERE REMAINS AN ELONGATED EAST TO
WEST MID AND UPPER WARM CORE ANTICYCLONIC RIDGE SITUATED FROM THE
PECOS RIVER VALLEY OF FAR WEST TEXAS EAST SOUTHEASTWARD TO ACROSS
SOUTHERN FLORIDA THENCE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ALONG 27 NORTH.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER LEVELS...(SURFACE TO 700 MB) LATEST
IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH AVAILABLE MARINE AND LAND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS AS OF 200 PM DETAILS A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTHWARDS THEN WESTWARDS ALONG THE THE LENGTH OF THE
ENTIRE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM A COOL 999 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR
PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND. AS SUCH...A LIGHT TO GENTLE WESTERLY FLOW
PATTERN IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
SURROUNDING WATERS.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 200 PM...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY RIGHT OVER THE
LENGTH OF THE KEYS ISLAND CHAIN...BUT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
CLEARLY DELINEATES NARROW WELL DEVELOPED CUMULUS CLOUD LINES JUST
INSIDE HAWK CHANNEL PARALLELS TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. KEY WEST
RADAR DOES DETECT SHOWERS WITHIN THIS CLOUDLINE...AS WELL AS OTHER
SHOWERS ON CLOUDLINES SITUATED IN THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS.

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
MID AND UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE BREAKING DOWN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW ANALYZED ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARDS DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BEFORE LOOSING ANY IDENTITY
DURING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT OF THIS
FEATURE...LOWER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW...SURFACE TO 700 MB...WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE LENGTH OF THE KEYS ISLAND CHAIN. BUT GIVEN THE
DEARTH OF DRIER AIR IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS...THE BEST SHOT FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN DOWNWIND OF
SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA...OR ACROSS THE UPPER KEYS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS. HENCE A SPLIT WHICH WAS PERFORMED ON THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST
CYCLE WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT TWO PERIODS.

SINCE THE AVAILABLE MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE
PWAT(PRECIPITABLE WATER) NEAR 1.50 INCHES...CUMULUS CLOUD LINES WILL
REQUIRE A FAVORABLE ALIGNMENT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVEL WINDS.
SO CONFIDENCE IN GOOD CUMULUS LINE FORMATION RIGHT OVER THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE KEYS REMAINS TO LOW TO INCREASE POPS...THEREFORE SLIGHT
CHANCE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE PRIMARILY DUE TO
BOUNDARY SCALE INTERACTIONS IN THE LOWER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW. THE
OTHER STORY IS THAT GIVEN LIGHT TO GENTLE WESTERLY
FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY...AND GIVEN THE VERY HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...THE HEAT
INDEX MAY REACH AROUND 105 DEGREES OVER THE ISLANDS.

ON THE THURSDAY THE WINDS WILL COLLAPSE AGAIN ACROSS THE KEYS AND
SURROUNDING WATERS...WHICH WILL PROVIDE BETTER CONDITIONS FOR
CUMULUS CLOUD LINE FORMATION GIVEN AVAILABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE...SO KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS ATTM.

EXTENDED...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ALL AVAILABLE INDICATIONS ARE
SUGGESTING THAT TYPICALLY WEAKER LOWER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...HOWEVER...SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES ARE
HINTED IN THE MODELS...AND GIVEN MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ILLUSTRATION OF AROUND 2.00 INCHES COLUMNAR PWAT...WILL MAINTAIN
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS IS
ACTUALLY ONLY 10 PERCENT ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY AS WE ENTER AUGUST. THE
TROPICS REMAIN QUIET WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WELL DEVELOPED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC BEYOND 7 DAYS IN TIME
FROM ANY IMPACTS TO THIS REGION...IF THERE WILL EVER BE ANY AT ALL.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT TO GENTLE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE
EVENING WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT
TO GENTLE SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY
FAVOR CUMULUS CLOUD LINES AGAIN IN HAWK CHANNEL...SO CONDITIONS MAY
BE CONDUCIVE FOR ROUNDS OF WATERSPOUTS AGAIN. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS DURING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BECOME GENTLE AND
SOUTHEASTERLY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH MODERATE BREEZES
POSSIBLE FOR A TIME SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
OF AROUND 10 KNOTS AT THE EYW AND MTH TERMINALS. STEERING FLOW OF
WEST TO NORTHWEST ORIGIN IS NORMALLY ASSOCIATED WITH BELOW NORMAL
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. SATELLITE BASED MOISTURE PRODUCTS INDICATE
LAYERS OF DRY AIR WILL INHIBIT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE LEE OF
THE ISLAND CHAIN. HOWEVER...COLLISIONS BETWEEN CUMULUS LINES HAVE
BEEN EFFECTIVE THIS MORNING IN PRODUCING PRECIPITATION...AND
ADDITIONAL COLLISIONS ARE LIKELY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLIMATE...ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1996...1.23
INCHES OF RAIN FELL AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THIS SET THE
DAILY RECORD FOR MAXIMUM RAINFALL MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON JULY 29TH.
RAINFALL RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  83  92  82  93  82 /  20  20  20  30  30
MARATHON  82  94  81  91  82 /  20  20  20  30  30

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/DIGITAL............DAF
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....................CLR
UPPER AIR/DATA ACQUISITION............BF/MP/SC

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST
















000
FXUS62 KKEY 291302
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
900 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB)...LATEST
AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY AS OF 800 AM
CONTINUES TO DEPICT AN EXCEPTIONALLY DEEP MID AND UPPER LONGWAVE
PATTERN FOR LATE IN JULY...WITH THE AXIS OF AN EAST COAST TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO JUST EAST OF GEORGIA FROM AN UNSEASONABLY
CHILLY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR JAMES BAY. TO THE SOUTH OF
THAT...THERE IS AN ANALYZED ELONGATED EAST TO WEST MID AND UPPER
WARM CORE ANTICYCLONIC RIDGE SITUATED FROM FAR WEST TEXAS EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD TO ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC ALONG 28 NORTH.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER LEVELS...(SURFACE TO 700 MB) LATEST
IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH AVAILABLE MARINE AND LAND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS AS OF 800 AM DETAIL A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHWARDS THEN WESTWARDS TO JUST NORTH OF THE LENGTH OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM A COOL 996 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR QUEBEC
CITY. AS SUCH A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN IS IS PLACE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS...BUT FAVORING LIGHT TO GENTLE
SOUTHWESTERLY. THE 12Z SOUNDING ILLUSTRATED A SLIGHTLY DRYER THAN
AVERAGE GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW FROM THE
SURFACE TO 600 MB...WITH PWAT (PRECIPITABLE WATER) AT ONLY 1.47
INCHES.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 800 AM...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE KEYS
ISLAND CHAIN AND SURROUNDING WATERS...EXCEPT PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS
THE UPPER KEYS WHERE KEY WEST RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG LOWER TO MID LEVEL CONFLUENT BOUNDARIES
POSITIONED UPSTREAM OF THE UPPER KEYS OVER FLORIDA BAY...HAVE BEEN
MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THIS STRETCH OF ISLANDS FOR MUCH OF THE
MORNING THUS FAR. THE MOST RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE KEY LARGO AREA.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWERS ARE
ALREADY IN THE MIDDLE 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 70S. C-MAN
STATIONS ARE RECORDING SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS NEAR 10
KNOTS...EXCEPT OVER LAND WHERE RELIABLE SENSORS ARE ONLY RECORDING
WINDS NEAR 5 MPH OVER THE ISLANDS.

.SHORT TERM...REST OF TODAY...ALTHOUGH MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS ARE
FAIRLY DRY...WITH PWAT AROUND 1.50 INCHES...LOWER LEVEL CONFLUENT
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG BOUNDARIES
JUST UPSTREAM OF THE UPPER KEYS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...WHEN
ENOUGH DRIER AIR COULD MIX IN TO SHUT OFF THE SHOWERS. THE FLY IN
THE OINTMENT HOWEVER IS THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER
MAY FORM ALONG SEABREEZE OUTFLOW WHICH COULD ALSO MOVE INTO THE
UPPER KEYS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HENCE HAVE SPLIT OFF
THE UPPER KEYS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY ATTM...AND MAINTAINED
ISOLATED POPS ELSEWHERE AS LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE MID-LEVELS AND A
MORE WESTERLY LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVEL FLOW IS NOT SUPPORTIVE FOR NO
MORE THAN A FEW SHOWERS AT THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BREEZES WILL BECOME WEST
TO NORTHWEST ACROSS THE MARINE DISTRICT BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL INCREASE A FEW KNOTS IN MAGNITUDE DOWNSTREAM OF
THE MAINLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER KEYS AND IMMEDIATE
SURROUNDING WATERS. OTHERWISE...NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY
HEADLINES EXPECTED TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...TODAY...MAINLY WEST WINDS AT THE EYW AND MTH
TERMINALS...LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. STEERING FLOW OF WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY ORIGIN IS NORMALLY ASSOCIATED WITH BELOW NORMAL
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AT THE TERMINALS. SATELLITE BASED MOISTURE
PRODUCTS AND A PRELIMINARY EXAMINATION OF THIS MORNING`S RAOB
SOUNDING INDICATE LAYERS OF DRY AIR AND INHIBITION WILL INHIBIT
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE LEE OF THE ISLAND CHAIN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1996...1.23 INCHES OF RAIN
FELL AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD
FOR MAXIMUM RAINFALL MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON JULY 29TH. RAINFALL
RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/DIGITAL............DAF
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....................CLR
UPPER AIR/DATA ACQUISITION............BF

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST












000
FXUS62 KKEY 291302
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
900 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB)...LATEST
AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY AS OF 800 AM
CONTINUES TO DEPICT AN EXCEPTIONALLY DEEP MID AND UPPER LONGWAVE
PATTERN FOR LATE IN JULY...WITH THE AXIS OF AN EAST COAST TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO JUST EAST OF GEORGIA FROM AN UNSEASONABLY
CHILLY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR JAMES BAY. TO THE SOUTH OF
THAT...THERE IS AN ANALYZED ELONGATED EAST TO WEST MID AND UPPER
WARM CORE ANTICYCLONIC RIDGE SITUATED FROM FAR WEST TEXAS EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD TO ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC ALONG 28 NORTH.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER LEVELS...(SURFACE TO 700 MB) LATEST
IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH AVAILABLE MARINE AND LAND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS AS OF 800 AM DETAIL A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHWARDS THEN WESTWARDS TO JUST NORTH OF THE LENGTH OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM A COOL 996 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR QUEBEC
CITY. AS SUCH A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN IS IS PLACE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS...BUT FAVORING LIGHT TO GENTLE
SOUTHWESTERLY. THE 12Z SOUNDING ILLUSTRATED A SLIGHTLY DRYER THAN
AVERAGE GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW FROM THE
SURFACE TO 600 MB...WITH PWAT (PRECIPITABLE WATER) AT ONLY 1.47
INCHES.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 800 AM...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE KEYS
ISLAND CHAIN AND SURROUNDING WATERS...EXCEPT PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS
THE UPPER KEYS WHERE KEY WEST RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG LOWER TO MID LEVEL CONFLUENT BOUNDARIES
POSITIONED UPSTREAM OF THE UPPER KEYS OVER FLORIDA BAY...HAVE BEEN
MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THIS STRETCH OF ISLANDS FOR MUCH OF THE
MORNING THUS FAR. THE MOST RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE KEY LARGO AREA.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWERS ARE
ALREADY IN THE MIDDLE 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 70S. C-MAN
STATIONS ARE RECORDING SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS NEAR 10
KNOTS...EXCEPT OVER LAND WHERE RELIABLE SENSORS ARE ONLY RECORDING
WINDS NEAR 5 MPH OVER THE ISLANDS.

.SHORT TERM...REST OF TODAY...ALTHOUGH MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS ARE
FAIRLY DRY...WITH PWAT AROUND 1.50 INCHES...LOWER LEVEL CONFLUENT
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG BOUNDARIES
JUST UPSTREAM OF THE UPPER KEYS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...WHEN
ENOUGH DRIER AIR COULD MIX IN TO SHUT OFF THE SHOWERS. THE FLY IN
THE OINTMENT HOWEVER IS THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER
MAY FORM ALONG SEABREEZE OUTFLOW WHICH COULD ALSO MOVE INTO THE
UPPER KEYS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HENCE HAVE SPLIT OFF
THE UPPER KEYS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY ATTM...AND MAINTAINED
ISOLATED POPS ELSEWHERE AS LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE MID-LEVELS AND A
MORE WESTERLY LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVEL FLOW IS NOT SUPPORTIVE FOR NO
MORE THAN A FEW SHOWERS AT THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BREEZES WILL BECOME WEST
TO NORTHWEST ACROSS THE MARINE DISTRICT BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL INCREASE A FEW KNOTS IN MAGNITUDE DOWNSTREAM OF
THE MAINLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER KEYS AND IMMEDIATE
SURROUNDING WATERS. OTHERWISE...NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY
HEADLINES EXPECTED TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...TODAY...MAINLY WEST WINDS AT THE EYW AND MTH
TERMINALS...LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. STEERING FLOW OF WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY ORIGIN IS NORMALLY ASSOCIATED WITH BELOW NORMAL
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AT THE TERMINALS. SATELLITE BASED MOISTURE
PRODUCTS AND A PRELIMINARY EXAMINATION OF THIS MORNING`S RAOB
SOUNDING INDICATE LAYERS OF DRY AIR AND INHIBITION WILL INHIBIT
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE LEE OF THE ISLAND CHAIN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1996...1.23 INCHES OF RAIN
FELL AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD
FOR MAXIMUM RAINFALL MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON JULY 29TH. RAINFALL
RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/DIGITAL............DAF
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....................CLR
UPPER AIR/DATA ACQUISITION............BF

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 291145
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
745 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...TODAY...MAINLY WEST WINDS AT THE EYW AND MTH
TERMINALS...LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. STEERING FLOW OF WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY ORIGIN IS NORMALLY ASSOCIATED WITH BELOW NORMAL CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION AT THE TERMINALS. SATELLITE BASED MOISTURE PRODUCTS
AND A PRELIMINARY EXAMINATION OF THIS MORNING`S RAOB SOUNDING
INDICATE LAYERS OF DRY AIR AND INHIBITION WILL INHIBIT SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE LEE OF THE ISLAND CHAIN.

&&

$$

AVIATION...CLR

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 291145
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
745 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...TODAY...MAINLY WEST WINDS AT THE EYW AND MTH
TERMINALS...LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. STEERING FLOW OF WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY ORIGIN IS NORMALLY ASSOCIATED WITH BELOW NORMAL CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION AT THE TERMINALS. SATELLITE BASED MOISTURE PRODUCTS
AND A PRELIMINARY EXAMINATION OF THIS MORNING`S RAOB SOUNDING
INDICATE LAYERS OF DRY AIR AND INHIBITION WILL INHIBIT SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE LEE OF THE ISLAND CHAIN.

&&

$$

AVIATION...CLR

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 290700
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
305 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC. ELSEWHERE...KBYX DETECTS NO PRECIPITATION
ECHOES IN THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES OVER THE ISLAND
CHAIN ARE PARTLY CLOUDY. WINDS OVER LAND ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE VARIABLE AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD DOWN THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE DISSIPATING
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THURSDAY. ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE TO SUPPORT CONVECTION TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. LACK OF APPARENT CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL PROMPT RAIN
CHANCES NEAR OR ABOVE ALL NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES IN THE LONG TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST SHOULD BE GREATEST SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST DURING THAT
TIME PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WEST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ON ALL KEYS COASTAL
WATERS TODAY. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
29TH/06Z TAF ISSUANCE...NOCTURNAL SHOWERS MAY CREATE BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS. AFTER DAYBREAK
HOWEVER...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1996...1.23 INCHES OF RAIN
FELL AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD
FOR MAXIMUM RAINFALL MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON JULY 29TH. RAINFALL
RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  92 83 91 82 / 10 10 20 20
MARATHON  93 82 93 81 / 10 10 20 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....................MSB

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 290700
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
305 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC. ELSEWHERE...KBYX DETECTS NO PRECIPITATION
ECHOES IN THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES OVER THE ISLAND
CHAIN ARE PARTLY CLOUDY. WINDS OVER LAND ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE VARIABLE AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD DOWN THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE DISSIPATING
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THURSDAY. ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE TO SUPPORT CONVECTION TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. LACK OF APPARENT CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL PROMPT RAIN
CHANCES NEAR OR ABOVE ALL NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES IN THE LONG TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST SHOULD BE GREATEST SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST DURING THAT
TIME PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WEST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ON ALL KEYS COASTAL
WATERS TODAY. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
29TH/06Z TAF ISSUANCE...NOCTURNAL SHOWERS MAY CREATE BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS. AFTER DAYBREAK
HOWEVER...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1996...1.23 INCHES OF RAIN
FELL AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD
FOR MAXIMUM RAINFALL MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON JULY 29TH. RAINFALL
RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  92 83 91 82 / 10 10 20 20
MARATHON  93 82 93 81 / 10 10 20 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....................MSB

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 290223
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1023 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - A SLACK FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS DUE TO
THE TAIL END OF A MID LATITUDE TROUGH DIPPING INTO FLORIDA. WINDS ARE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE. VERY WEAK FLOW AND SOME WARM LAYERS ALOFT HAVE
KEPT SHOWER ACTIVITY AT A MINIMUM THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN ACTIVITY OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA WAS SUBDUED THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN
THE MID 80S WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S.

SHORT TERM UPDATE (OVERNIGHT) - SLACK FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MANY
ISLAND LOCATIONS WILL GO CALM AND TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RADIATE
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. SLACK FLOW...SOME DRY AIR ALOFT...AND
NOT EXACTLY AMPLE INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES SLIM TO NONE
OVERNIGHT. WILL UPDATE TO SHAVE TEMPS AND POPS IN THE FIRST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ON KEYS WATERS OVERNIGHT DUE TO
A FLAT PRESSURE GRADIENT. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BE SLIM TO NONE.
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WILL BE MADE IN THE EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
UNTIL 12Z/29TH...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON TERMINALS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....APA

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 290223
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1023 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - A SLACK FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS DUE TO
THE TAIL END OF A MID LATITUDE TROUGH DIPPING INTO FLORIDA. WINDS ARE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE. VERY WEAK FLOW AND SOME WARM LAYERS ALOFT HAVE
KEPT SHOWER ACTIVITY AT A MINIMUM THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN ACTIVITY OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA WAS SUBDUED THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN
THE MID 80S WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S.

SHORT TERM UPDATE (OVERNIGHT) - SLACK FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MANY
ISLAND LOCATIONS WILL GO CALM AND TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RADIATE
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. SLACK FLOW...SOME DRY AIR ALOFT...AND
NOT EXACTLY AMPLE INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES SLIM TO NONE
OVERNIGHT. WILL UPDATE TO SHAVE TEMPS AND POPS IN THE FIRST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ON KEYS WATERS OVERNIGHT DUE TO
A FLAT PRESSURE GRADIENT. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BE SLIM TO NONE.
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WILL BE MADE IN THE EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
UNTIL 12Z/29TH...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON TERMINALS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....APA

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 281848
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
245 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB)...LATEST
AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY AS OF 200 PM
CONTINUES TO DEPICT AN ABNORMALLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS...A ROBUST MID AND UPPER TROUGH SITUATED ALONG THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS
GEORGIA. TO THE SOUTH OF THAT...THE AXIS OF A DEEP AND WARM MIDDLE
AND UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ORIENTED FROM WEST CENTRAL TEXAS EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD TO CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. ACROSS THE TROPICS...THE NEXT MID AND UPPER TUTT (TROPICAL
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH) LOW CENTER IS AMBLING WESTWARD AT 22
NORTH 64 WEST.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER LEVELS...(SURFACE TO 700 MB) LATEST
IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH AVAILABLE MARINE AND LAND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS AS OF 200 PM CONTINUES TO DETAIL AN
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD TO ACROSS THE MIDDLE
DIXIE STATES...FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NEW
ENGLAND. LOCALLY...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE WITH THE
KEYS IS A COL ZONE.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 200 PM...SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE
ISLANDS AND ADJOINING WATERS. TEMPERATURES OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION ARE
IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
70S. C-MAN STATIONS ALONG THE FLORIDA REEF AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA BAY
ARE RECORDING VARIABLE WINDS AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A UNSEASONABLY DEEP
MID AND UPPER SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...BUT MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO
MAINTAIN A MORE TYPICAL MOISTURE PROFILE THAN AS OF LATE AS THE
SAHARAN AIR LAYER HAS EXITED FOR NOW...WITH PWAT BETWEEN 1.50 AND
1.75 INCHES THROUGH THE PERIOD. AND GIVEN THE UNUSUALLY DEEP DIVING
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
TROUGH AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARDS...EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
TONIGHT TO BECOME WESTERLY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE LOWER TO MID LEVEL PROFILES ARE NOT WELL ALIGNED TO SUPPORT
GOOD MESOSCALE FORCING OVER THE ISLANDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE ALIGNMENT DURING WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN ON THURSDAY...SLIGHTLY
MORE LOWER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY VERY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
500 MB...WHICH IS SUPPORTIVE OF LOWER CHANCE POPS...30% FOR THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY EVENING.

.EXTENDED...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MID AND UPPER RIDGING IS
EXPECTED IN TANDEM WITH A BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALL INDICATE A DEEPENING ALBEIT
LIGHT MOISTURE PROFILE THOUGH 400 MB. THEREFORE WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE
POPS IN THE GRIDS...WHICH IS TYPICAL AS WE ENTER THE EARLY PART OF
THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY HOTTEST MONTH OF THE YEAR.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO
GENTLE AND MOSTLY WEST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN BECOME
LIGHT AND EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF SHOWER
MAY OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS
BEFORE SUNSET. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...FAVORING OUT OF THE NORTH
OR NORTHWEST AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS...MAY BECOME CALM AT TIMES
OVERNIGHT. A LIGHT WEST WIND 4 TO 7 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1916...7.14 INCHES OF RAIN
FELL IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR MAXIMUM RAINFALL
MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON JULY 28TH...A RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 98
YEARS LATER. IN ADDITION...THIS IS THE WETTEST DAY EVER RECORDED IN
KEY WEST DURING THE MONTH OF JULY. RAINFALL RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE
BACK TO 1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  83  91  82  92  81 / 20  10  10  20  20
MARATHON  81  92  81  93  81 / 20  10  10  20  20
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/DIGITAL............FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....................RIZZO
UPPER AIR/DATA ACQUISITION............FLING/VICKERY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 281848
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
245 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB)...LATEST
AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY AS OF 200 PM
CONTINUES TO DEPICT AN ABNORMALLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS...A ROBUST MID AND UPPER TROUGH SITUATED ALONG THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS
GEORGIA. TO THE SOUTH OF THAT...THE AXIS OF A DEEP AND WARM MIDDLE
AND UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ORIENTED FROM WEST CENTRAL TEXAS EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD TO CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. ACROSS THE TROPICS...THE NEXT MID AND UPPER TUTT (TROPICAL
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH) LOW CENTER IS AMBLING WESTWARD AT 22
NORTH 64 WEST.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER LEVELS...(SURFACE TO 700 MB) LATEST
IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH AVAILABLE MARINE AND LAND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS AS OF 200 PM CONTINUES TO DETAIL AN
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD TO ACROSS THE MIDDLE
DIXIE STATES...FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NEW
ENGLAND. LOCALLY...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE WITH THE
KEYS IS A COL ZONE.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 200 PM...SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE
ISLANDS AND ADJOINING WATERS. TEMPERATURES OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION ARE
IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
70S. C-MAN STATIONS ALONG THE FLORIDA REEF AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA BAY
ARE RECORDING VARIABLE WINDS AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A UNSEASONABLY DEEP
MID AND UPPER SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...BUT MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO
MAINTAIN A MORE TYPICAL MOISTURE PROFILE THAN AS OF LATE AS THE
SAHARAN AIR LAYER HAS EXITED FOR NOW...WITH PWAT BETWEEN 1.50 AND
1.75 INCHES THROUGH THE PERIOD. AND GIVEN THE UNUSUALLY DEEP DIVING
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
TROUGH AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARDS...EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
TONIGHT TO BECOME WESTERLY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE LOWER TO MID LEVEL PROFILES ARE NOT WELL ALIGNED TO SUPPORT
GOOD MESOSCALE FORCING OVER THE ISLANDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE ALIGNMENT DURING WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN ON THURSDAY...SLIGHTLY
MORE LOWER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY VERY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
500 MB...WHICH IS SUPPORTIVE OF LOWER CHANCE POPS...30% FOR THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY EVENING.

.EXTENDED...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MID AND UPPER RIDGING IS
EXPECTED IN TANDEM WITH A BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALL INDICATE A DEEPENING ALBEIT
LIGHT MOISTURE PROFILE THOUGH 400 MB. THEREFORE WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE
POPS IN THE GRIDS...WHICH IS TYPICAL AS WE ENTER THE EARLY PART OF
THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY HOTTEST MONTH OF THE YEAR.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO
GENTLE AND MOSTLY WEST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN BECOME
LIGHT AND EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF SHOWER
MAY OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS
BEFORE SUNSET. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...FAVORING OUT OF THE NORTH
OR NORTHWEST AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS...MAY BECOME CALM AT TIMES
OVERNIGHT. A LIGHT WEST WIND 4 TO 7 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1916...7.14 INCHES OF RAIN
FELL IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR MAXIMUM RAINFALL
MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON JULY 28TH...A RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 98
YEARS LATER. IN ADDITION...THIS IS THE WETTEST DAY EVER RECORDED IN
KEY WEST DURING THE MONTH OF JULY. RAINFALL RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE
BACK TO 1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  83  91  82  92  81 / 20  10  10  20  20
MARATHON  81  92  81  93  81 / 20  10  10  20  20
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/DIGITAL............FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....................RIZZO
UPPER AIR/DATA ACQUISITION............FLING/VICKERY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 281243
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
845 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB)...LATEST
AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY AS OF 800 AM
DETAILS AN UNUSUALLY ROBUST MID AND UPPER TROUGH SITUATED ALONG THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES...WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS
GEORGIA. TO THE SOUTH OF THAT...THE AXIS OF A DEEP AND WARM MIDDLE
AND UPPER RIDGE IS ORIENTED FROM THE CENTER OF AN ANTICYCLONE OVER
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS EAST SOUTHEASTWARD TO ACROSS THE GULF TO CENTRAL
FLORIDA AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. ACROSS THE TROPICS...THE NEXT
MID AND UPPER TUTT (TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH) LOW CENTER
IS AMBLING WESTWARD AT 22 NORTH 64 WEST.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER LEVELS...(SURFACE TO 700 MB) LATEST
IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH AVAILABLE MARINE AND LAND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS AS OF 800 AM DETAILS AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT SNAKING RATHER UN-CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAR SOUTHWESTWARD TO ACROSS
BOTH THE TENNESSEE AND RED RIVER VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...FROM LOWE PRESSURE NEAR LAKE ERIE. LOCALLY...A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS.
LATEST MIMIC TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSIS FROM THE UNIVERSITY
OF WISCONSIN CONTINUED TO ILLUSTRATED INCREASING LOWER TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ALREADY INFILTRATING MOST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN AND
SURROUNDING WATERS. AS A RESULT...THE 12Z SOUNDING AT KEY WEST
ILLUSTRATED BOTH A MODERATELY MOIST LOWER TO MID TROPOSPHERIC
PROFILE WITH A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO
5000 FEET AGL...BECOMING VARIABLE UP TO 25 KFT. THE COLUMN HAD
MOISTENED UP .52 OR MORE THAN ONE HALF OF AN INCH IN ONLY 12 HOURS.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 800 AM...LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH
OBSERVATIONS SHOWED MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN AND
SURROUNDING WATERS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLANDS HAD ALREADY
RISEN INTO THE MIDDLE 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 70S. KEY WEST
RADAR WAS DEVOID OF ANY ECHOES ATTM. C-MAN STATIONS ALONG THE
FLORIDA REEF AND IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA BAY ARE RECORDING LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS AOA 5 KNOTS.

.SHORT TERM...REST OF TODAY...DESPITE A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN
REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE BALANCE OF TODAY...INTRODUCTION OF
MORE MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE LOWER TO MID TROPOSPHERE IS
INDICATED BY BOTH LATEST AVAILABLE MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS AS WELL
AS CURRENT TRENDS IN SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT DATA JUST UPSTREAM OF
THE KEYS. THE WEAKER AND LIGHT LOWER TO MID TROPOSPHERIC WINDS FAVOR
CUMULUS CLOUD FORMATION...GIVEN PWAT BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2.00 INCHES.
BUT THERE ARE ONLY A FEW BOUNDARIES AWAY FROM THE KEYS AND GIVEN
VERY LITTLE STORM MOTION STILL THINK THAT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
WILL REMAIN ISOLATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATERS. HOWEVER...ALONG THE
KEYS AND THE IMMEDIATE FLORIDA BAY...NEARSHORE GULF WATERS NORTH OF
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS...AND IN HAWK CHANNEL...CUMULUS CLOUD
LINES MAY BECOME WELL DEVELOPED DURING THIS AFTERNOON. HENCE ITS
POSSIBLE THAT A LATE MORNING MAY BE PERFORMED PENDING ADDITIONAL
SATELLITE OBSERVATION.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT EASTERLY EARLY WILL BECOME VARIABLE WINDS NEAR 5
KNOTS OR LESS ACROSS ALL WATERS THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. WEAR YOUR
SUNSCREEN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SUSTAINED SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS FROM
JUST OFF THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 5000 FEET WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1916...7.14 INCHES OF RAIN
FELL IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR MAXIMUM RAINFALL
MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON JULY 28TH...A RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 98
YEARS LATER. IN ADDITION...THIS IS THE WETTEST DAY EVER RECORDED IN
KEY WEST DURING THE MONTH OF JULY. RAINFALL RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE
BACK TO 1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/DIGITAL............FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....................RIZZO
UPPER AIR/DATA ACQUISITION............FLING

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 281243
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
845 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB)...LATEST
AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY AS OF 800 AM
DETAILS AN UNUSUALLY ROBUST MID AND UPPER TROUGH SITUATED ALONG THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES...WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS
GEORGIA. TO THE SOUTH OF THAT...THE AXIS OF A DEEP AND WARM MIDDLE
AND UPPER RIDGE IS ORIENTED FROM THE CENTER OF AN ANTICYCLONE OVER
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS EAST SOUTHEASTWARD TO ACROSS THE GULF TO CENTRAL
FLORIDA AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. ACROSS THE TROPICS...THE NEXT
MID AND UPPER TUTT (TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH) LOW CENTER
IS AMBLING WESTWARD AT 22 NORTH 64 WEST.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER LEVELS...(SURFACE TO 700 MB) LATEST
IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH AVAILABLE MARINE AND LAND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS AS OF 800 AM DETAILS AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT SNAKING RATHER UN-CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAR SOUTHWESTWARD TO ACROSS
BOTH THE TENNESSEE AND RED RIVER VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...FROM LOWE PRESSURE NEAR LAKE ERIE. LOCALLY...A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS.
LATEST MIMIC TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSIS FROM THE UNIVERSITY
OF WISCONSIN CONTINUED TO ILLUSTRATED INCREASING LOWER TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ALREADY INFILTRATING MOST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN AND
SURROUNDING WATERS. AS A RESULT...THE 12Z SOUNDING AT KEY WEST
ILLUSTRATED BOTH A MODERATELY MOIST LOWER TO MID TROPOSPHERIC
PROFILE WITH A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO
5000 FEET AGL...BECOMING VARIABLE UP TO 25 KFT. THE COLUMN HAD
MOISTENED UP .52 OR MORE THAN ONE HALF OF AN INCH IN ONLY 12 HOURS.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 800 AM...LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH
OBSERVATIONS SHOWED MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN AND
SURROUNDING WATERS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLANDS HAD ALREADY
RISEN INTO THE MIDDLE 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 70S. KEY WEST
RADAR WAS DEVOID OF ANY ECHOES ATTM. C-MAN STATIONS ALONG THE
FLORIDA REEF AND IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA BAY ARE RECORDING LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS AOA 5 KNOTS.

.SHORT TERM...REST OF TODAY...DESPITE A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN
REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE BALANCE OF TODAY...INTRODUCTION OF
MORE MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE LOWER TO MID TROPOSPHERE IS
INDICATED BY BOTH LATEST AVAILABLE MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS AS WELL
AS CURRENT TRENDS IN SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT DATA JUST UPSTREAM OF
THE KEYS. THE WEAKER AND LIGHT LOWER TO MID TROPOSPHERIC WINDS FAVOR
CUMULUS CLOUD FORMATION...GIVEN PWAT BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2.00 INCHES.
BUT THERE ARE ONLY A FEW BOUNDARIES AWAY FROM THE KEYS AND GIVEN
VERY LITTLE STORM MOTION STILL THINK THAT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
WILL REMAIN ISOLATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATERS. HOWEVER...ALONG THE
KEYS AND THE IMMEDIATE FLORIDA BAY...NEARSHORE GULF WATERS NORTH OF
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS...AND IN HAWK CHANNEL...CUMULUS CLOUD
LINES MAY BECOME WELL DEVELOPED DURING THIS AFTERNOON. HENCE ITS
POSSIBLE THAT A LATE MORNING MAY BE PERFORMED PENDING ADDITIONAL
SATELLITE OBSERVATION.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT EASTERLY EARLY WILL BECOME VARIABLE WINDS NEAR 5
KNOTS OR LESS ACROSS ALL WATERS THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. WEAR YOUR
SUNSCREEN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SUSTAINED SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS FROM
JUST OFF THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 5000 FEET WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1916...7.14 INCHES OF RAIN
FELL IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR MAXIMUM RAINFALL
MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON JULY 28TH...A RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 98
YEARS LATER. IN ADDITION...THIS IS THE WETTEST DAY EVER RECORDED IN
KEY WEST DURING THE MONTH OF JULY. RAINFALL RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE
BACK TO 1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/DIGITAL............FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....................RIZZO
UPPER AIR/DATA ACQUISITION............FLING

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 281122
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
725 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SUSTAINED SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS FROM JUST OFF
THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 5000 FEET WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

$$

AVIATION...BS

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 281122
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
725 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SUSTAINED SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS FROM JUST OFF
THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 5000 FEET WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

$$

AVIATION...BS

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 280640
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
245 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA
STRAITS. ELSEWHERE...KBYX DETECTS NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE
MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDS OVER LAND ARE SOUTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH. C-MAN
WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES
ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL TODAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ONE
AND ONE HALF OF AN INCH TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHICH IS QUITE DRY
FOR THE END OF JULY. AS A RESULT...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DECREASED
FOR TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE INCREASES.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL STALL OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING THURSDAY
NIGHT. AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ON ALL KEYS COASTAL
WATERS TODAY. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
EAST TO SOUTHEAST NEAR 5 KNOTS THROUGH SUNRISE...AND BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1916...7.14 INCHES OF RAIN
FELL IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR MAXIMUM RAINFALL
MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON JULY 28TH...A RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 98
YEARS LATER. IN ADDITION...THIS IS THE WETTEST DAY EVER RECORDED IN
KEY WEST DURING THE MONTH OF JULY. RAINFALL RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE
BACK TO 1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  92 83 91 82 / 05 05 05 10
MARATHON  93 81 92 81 / 05 05 05 10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION.............................AD

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 280640
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
245 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA
STRAITS. ELSEWHERE...KBYX DETECTS NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE
MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDS OVER LAND ARE SOUTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH. C-MAN
WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES
ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL TODAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ONE
AND ONE HALF OF AN INCH TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHICH IS QUITE DRY
FOR THE END OF JULY. AS A RESULT...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DECREASED
FOR TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE INCREASES.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL STALL OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING THURSDAY
NIGHT. AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ON ALL KEYS COASTAL
WATERS TODAY. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
EAST TO SOUTHEAST NEAR 5 KNOTS THROUGH SUNRISE...AND BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1916...7.14 INCHES OF RAIN
FELL IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR MAXIMUM RAINFALL
MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON JULY 28TH...A RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 98
YEARS LATER. IN ADDITION...THIS IS THE WETTEST DAY EVER RECORDED IN
KEY WEST DURING THE MONTH OF JULY. RAINFALL RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE
BACK TO 1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  92 83 91 82 / 05 05 05 10
MARATHON  93 81 92 81 / 05 05 05 10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION.............................AD

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 280222
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1018 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...TEMPERATURES
RANGE BETWEEN 80 AND 85 DEGREES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN.
MEANWHILE...LOCAL RADARS ARE NOT DETECTING ANY PRECIPITATION ECHOES
IN OUR ENTIRE AREA. SURFACE WISE...AN ELONGATED...EAST-WEST ORIENTED
RIDGE LIES ACROSS EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE UPPER
KEYS...RESULTING IN VARIABLE WINDS OF LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.
OTHERWISE...OUR EVENING SOUNDING REVEALS SCANT MOISTURE (PWAT 1.30
INCHES) WITH A 2 DEGREE C INVERSION BASED AT 900 MB...BUT AN
IMPRESSIVE 21 DEGREE C TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AT 850 MB.
LIGHT AND CHAOTIC WINDS REACH UP TO 600 MB...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT
EAST ABOVE.

.FORECAST...(REST OF TONIGHT)...
A DEEP TROPOSPHERIC WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA WITH AN EMBEDDED AREA OF SAHARAN AIR WILL PRECLUDE SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO
RANGE FROM THE MID 70S IN A FEW INTERIOR LOCATIONS OF THE LARGER
ISLANDS...TO THE LOWER 80S ON THE SOUTH FACING COMMUNITIES.
&&

.MARINE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME MOSTLY SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE TURNING WEST NEAR 5 KNOTS
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...
OVERNIGHT...VFR WILL PREVAIL AT THE EYW AND MTH TERMINALS. A FEW
MARITIME CU WILL ENCROACH THE TERMINALS AROUND SUNRISE...CIGS NOT
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AND LESS THAN 5 KNOTS FROM THE
SURFACE THROUGH 10 KFT.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........APA
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....CLR
DATA COLLECTION.......EV

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 280222
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1018 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...TEMPERATURES
RANGE BETWEEN 80 AND 85 DEGREES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN.
MEANWHILE...LOCAL RADARS ARE NOT DETECTING ANY PRECIPITATION ECHOES
IN OUR ENTIRE AREA. SURFACE WISE...AN ELONGATED...EAST-WEST ORIENTED
RIDGE LIES ACROSS EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE UPPER
KEYS...RESULTING IN VARIABLE WINDS OF LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.
OTHERWISE...OUR EVENING SOUNDING REVEALS SCANT MOISTURE (PWAT 1.30
INCHES) WITH A 2 DEGREE C INVERSION BASED AT 900 MB...BUT AN
IMPRESSIVE 21 DEGREE C TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AT 850 MB.
LIGHT AND CHAOTIC WINDS REACH UP TO 600 MB...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT
EAST ABOVE.

.FORECAST...(REST OF TONIGHT)...
A DEEP TROPOSPHERIC WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA WITH AN EMBEDDED AREA OF SAHARAN AIR WILL PRECLUDE SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO
RANGE FROM THE MID 70S IN A FEW INTERIOR LOCATIONS OF THE LARGER
ISLANDS...TO THE LOWER 80S ON THE SOUTH FACING COMMUNITIES.
&&

.MARINE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME MOSTLY SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE TURNING WEST NEAR 5 KNOTS
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...
OVERNIGHT...VFR WILL PREVAIL AT THE EYW AND MTH TERMINALS. A FEW
MARITIME CU WILL ENCROACH THE TERMINALS AROUND SUNRISE...CIGS NOT
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AND LESS THAN 5 KNOTS FROM THE
SURFACE THROUGH 10 KFT.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........APA
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....CLR
DATA COLLECTION.......EV

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 271851
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
251 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - WEAK FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE KEYS...DUE TO WEAK RIDGING
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. STABLE CONDITIONS WITH AMPLE DRY AIR ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES...AND SHOWERS THAT WERE EARLIER PRESENT
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS HAVE DISSIPATED...AND NO SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS CURRENTLY PRESENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY
SUNNY...WITH ALL CLOUD ELEMENTS LOCATED ALONG A COUPLE OF MARINE
BOUNDARIES...AND LEE SIDE CLOUD LINES. STABLE CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

FORECAST - THE RIDGE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE ASSAULTED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BY A UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID LATITUDE TROUGH
DIPPING INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. AS A RESULT...THE ALREADY
WEAK SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. RAIN CHANCES WILL
SLOWLY CREEP UPWARD AS THE LOWER LEVEL RIDGE AND STABILIZING
ISOTHERMAL LAYER BREAKS DOWN...AND THE DRY AIR ALOFT ERODES. WILL
KEEP THE INTRODUCTION OF DIME POPS TONIGHT.

GUIDANCE ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT AROUND MID WEEK...THE
TAIL END OF SURFACE TROUGH WILL BALL UP OVER FLORIDA...KEEPING THE
RIDGE AXIS SPLIT AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA. CONSEQUENTLY...WINDS WILL BE
QUITE LIGHT...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AS SOUTH FLORIDA HEATS UP
DAILY. LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE KEYS AREA THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK. THIS ALONG WITH THE LACK OF ANY DEEP LAYERED RIDGING
NEARBY...INCREASED INSTABILITY...AND CYCLONIC LOWER LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. THE MAIN NEGATIVE WILL BE
THE WEAK FLOW. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN THE ADVERTISED LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS AS
WHAT REMAINS OF THE RIDGE TO OUR NORTH IS BROKEN DOWN BY A TROUGH
MOVING SLIDING INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
THEREAFTER...WEAK FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AS A RATHER FLAT PRESSURE PATTERN REMAINS ACROSS THE KEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...
TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON ISLAND TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  83  91  82  91 / 10 10 10 10
MARATHON  83  92  82  93 / 10 10 10 10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....FUTTERMAN
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 271421
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1021 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - WINDS ARE WEAK OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST DUE TO A SLOPPY RIDGE
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THE KEY WEST MORNING SOUNDING INDICATED A WARM
AND DRY AIR MASS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH HAS DONE A GOOD JOB
OF KEEPING SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM DEVELOPING. SOMEWHAT LESS STABLE
CONDITIONS WERE SEEN IN MIAMI`S MORNING SOUNDING...AND A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DEVELOP ALONG A MARINE CLOUD LINE OFF OF THE UPPER
KEYS.

SHORT TERM UPDATE (THIS AFTERNOON) - WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF
THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST...WITH WINDS BECOMING VARIABLE OVER OUR GULF
SIDE WATERS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SLIM TO ZERO DUE TO THE SABLE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. WEAK FLOW...AMPLE SUNSHINE...AND PLENTY
WARM WATER WILL LET DAY TIME HIGHS MOVE INTO THE LOWER 90S WITH DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S. NO UPDATE PLANNED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MOST KEYS WATERS...AND TREND TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVER OUR GULF SIDE WATERS DUE TO HEATING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON ISLAND
TERMINALS THROUGH SUNDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....FUTTERMAN
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 271421
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1021 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - WINDS ARE WEAK OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST DUE TO A SLOPPY RIDGE
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THE KEY WEST MORNING SOUNDING INDICATED A WARM
AND DRY AIR MASS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH HAS DONE A GOOD JOB
OF KEEPING SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM DEVELOPING. SOMEWHAT LESS STABLE
CONDITIONS WERE SEEN IN MIAMI`S MORNING SOUNDING...AND A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DEVELOP ALONG A MARINE CLOUD LINE OFF OF THE UPPER
KEYS.

SHORT TERM UPDATE (THIS AFTERNOON) - WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF
THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST...WITH WINDS BECOMING VARIABLE OVER OUR GULF
SIDE WATERS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SLIM TO ZERO DUE TO THE SABLE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. WEAK FLOW...AMPLE SUNSHINE...AND PLENTY
WARM WATER WILL LET DAY TIME HIGHS MOVE INTO THE LOWER 90S WITH DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S. NO UPDATE PLANNED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MOST KEYS WATERS...AND TREND TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVER OUR GULF SIDE WATERS DUE TO HEATING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON ISLAND
TERMINALS THROUGH SUNDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....FUTTERMAN
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 271152
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
752 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST
INTERNATIONAL AND MARATHON AIRPORT. WINDS WILL AVERAGE FROM 6 TO 9
KNOTS FROM 150 DEGREES. JUST A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL BE FOUND AOA
FL020-025.


&&

$$

AVIATION...FUTTERMAN

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