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000
FXUS62 KKEY 310134
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
934 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
THE KEY WEST EVENING SOUNDING FOUND A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER WITH AN OVERALL PWAT NEAR 1.5 INCHES. SBCAPE IS AROUND 1300
J/KG...WITH A LITTLE INHIBITION. DESPITE THIS...KBYX RADAR IS
PICKING UP SEVERAL LONGITUDINALLY ORIENTED BROKEN LINES OF SHOWERS
MOVING TOWARDS THE EAST AROUND 20 KNOTS. ONE IS IMPACTING THE
UPPER KEYS...ANOTHER MOVING THROUGH THE MIDDLE KEYS NEAR
MARATHON...AND A THIRD LINE HALFWAY BETWEEN THE LOWER KEYS AND
CUBA. CMAN STATION WINDS FROM SOMBRERO TO PULASKI SHOAL ARE IN THE
20 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS...AND A THUNDERSTORM MOVING
OVER SOMBRERO PRODUCED A 48 KNOT GUST. MOLASSES REEF OFF THE UPPER
KEYS CAME IN AT 15 KNOTS THE LAST HOUR WITH A GUST OF 24 KNOTS.
ISLAND STATIONS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS HAVE BEEN PICKING UP
WINDS A FEW KNOTS ABOUT 15...WITH THE KEY LARGO HANDAR STATION
COMING IN NEAR 10 KNOTS.

.SHORT TERM...
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE MIDDLE KEYS TO CUBA CAUSING
THE WINDY CONDITIONS IS A RESULT OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. MODEL CONSENSUS GENERALLY RELAXES THIS GRADIENT
OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE MOVES SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AND THE LOWER
PRESSURE AREA IN THE CARIBBEAN PROGRESSES OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. IN THE INTERIM HOWEVER...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS
FROM THE MIDDLE KEYS SOUTHWARD WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH 06Z. THE
DRIER CONDITIONS FOUND IN THE EVENING SOUNDING ARE LIKELY NOT
REPRESENTATIVE OF WHAT CONDITIONS WILL BE OVERNIGHT AS THE GFS
SHOWS A MOISTURE PLUG MOVING IN FROM THE EAST...WHICH SEEMS TO BE
CONFIRMED BY THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE STRAITS. THE COVERAGE IS
STILL SOMEWHAT ISOLATED...BUT ENOUGH TO BUMP THE EVENING POPS UP
TO CHANCE FROM SLIGHT CHANCE.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA STRAITS SOUTH
OF THE MIDDLE KEYS AND FOR THE GULF WATERS WEST OF THE LOWER KEYS.
WINDS AT THE CMAN STATIONS AT SOMBRERO...SAND KEY...AND PULASKI
SHOAL HAVE BEEN COMING IN ABOVE 20 KNOTS...AND IT IS LIKELY WINDS
IN THE STRAITS BETWEEN THE KEYS AND CUBA ARE SUSTAINED NEAR 25
KNOTS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX SLOWLY OVERNIGHT...BECOMING NEAR
15 KNOTS IN THE STRAITS BY SUNRISE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST AT 12 TO 17 KNOTS AND GUSTY.
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FAST
MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DELIVER A QUICK SHOT OR TWO OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AT THE ISLAND
TERMINALS.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ034-044-
     054-055-074-075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........DEVANAS
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....11
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 310134
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
934 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
THE KEY WEST EVENING SOUNDING FOUND A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER WITH AN OVERALL PWAT NEAR 1.5 INCHES. SBCAPE IS AROUND 1300
J/KG...WITH A LITTLE INHIBITION. DESPITE THIS...KBYX RADAR IS
PICKING UP SEVERAL LONGITUDINALLY ORIENTED BROKEN LINES OF SHOWERS
MOVING TOWARDS THE EAST AROUND 20 KNOTS. ONE IS IMPACTING THE
UPPER KEYS...ANOTHER MOVING THROUGH THE MIDDLE KEYS NEAR
MARATHON...AND A THIRD LINE HALFWAY BETWEEN THE LOWER KEYS AND
CUBA. CMAN STATION WINDS FROM SOMBRERO TO PULASKI SHOAL ARE IN THE
20 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS...AND A THUNDERSTORM MOVING
OVER SOMBRERO PRODUCED A 48 KNOT GUST. MOLASSES REEF OFF THE UPPER
KEYS CAME IN AT 15 KNOTS THE LAST HOUR WITH A GUST OF 24 KNOTS.
ISLAND STATIONS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS HAVE BEEN PICKING UP
WINDS A FEW KNOTS ABOUT 15...WITH THE KEY LARGO HANDAR STATION
COMING IN NEAR 10 KNOTS.

.SHORT TERM...
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE MIDDLE KEYS TO CUBA CAUSING
THE WINDY CONDITIONS IS A RESULT OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. MODEL CONSENSUS GENERALLY RELAXES THIS GRADIENT
OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE MOVES SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AND THE LOWER
PRESSURE AREA IN THE CARIBBEAN PROGRESSES OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. IN THE INTERIM HOWEVER...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS
FROM THE MIDDLE KEYS SOUTHWARD WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH 06Z. THE
DRIER CONDITIONS FOUND IN THE EVENING SOUNDING ARE LIKELY NOT
REPRESENTATIVE OF WHAT CONDITIONS WILL BE OVERNIGHT AS THE GFS
SHOWS A MOISTURE PLUG MOVING IN FROM THE EAST...WHICH SEEMS TO BE
CONFIRMED BY THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE STRAITS. THE COVERAGE IS
STILL SOMEWHAT ISOLATED...BUT ENOUGH TO BUMP THE EVENING POPS UP
TO CHANCE FROM SLIGHT CHANCE.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA STRAITS SOUTH
OF THE MIDDLE KEYS AND FOR THE GULF WATERS WEST OF THE LOWER KEYS.
WINDS AT THE CMAN STATIONS AT SOMBRERO...SAND KEY...AND PULASKI
SHOAL HAVE BEEN COMING IN ABOVE 20 KNOTS...AND IT IS LIKELY WINDS
IN THE STRAITS BETWEEN THE KEYS AND CUBA ARE SUSTAINED NEAR 25
KNOTS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX SLOWLY OVERNIGHT...BECOMING NEAR
15 KNOTS IN THE STRAITS BY SUNRISE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST AT 12 TO 17 KNOTS AND GUSTY.
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FAST
MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DELIVER A QUICK SHOT OR TWO OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AT THE ISLAND
TERMINALS.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ034-044-
     054-055-074-075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........DEVANAS
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....11
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 301840
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
240 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS AND AREA COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. THE TIGHTEST
GRADIENT AND STRONGEST WINDS ARE SOUTHWEST OF AN IMAGINARY LINE WHICH
EXTENDS FROM SOUTH OF ANDROS TO NORTH OF THE DRY TORTUGAS.
TEMPERATURES ARE JUST ABOVE 90F...AND SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE ITS INFLUENCE TONIGHT...PRESSED AGAINST LOWER PRESSURE
SLIDING WEST INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AS THIS WAVE PUSHES INTO
THE YUCATAN...ITS EXTREME NORTHEASTERN FLANK APPEARS TO REMOVE JUST
ENOUGH INHIBITION ACROSS OUR CWA TO WARRANT A 20 PERCENT POP. FRESH
BREEZES TONIGHT...WILL SLOWLY SLACKEN...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MINOR NOCTURNAL SURGES. AS BREEZES SLACKEN...THE LOW
LEVEL INVERSION WILL SLOWLY ERODE. FOR THIS REASON...POPS INCREASE TO
30 PERCENT ON MONDAY. THERE ARE NO DISCERNING MESOSCALE OR SYNOPTIC
FEATURES TO IDENTIFY...JUST LEANING CLOSER TO CLIMO. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...A TUTT CELL WILL PUSH WEST
THROUGH THE BAHAMAS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...AN INVERTED
TROUGH IN THE EASTERLIES IS PROGGED TO PASS THROUGH THE KEYS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WHETHER OR NOT THESE TWO FEATURES
COMMINGLE VERTICALLY...REMAINS TO BE SEEN. BASED ON THIS
UNCERTAINTY...WE HAVE RETAINED A WINDOW OF 40 PERCENT POPS...FOLLOWED
BY A LOW END CHANCE TO CLOSE OUT THE LONG TERM.

&&

.MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA AND HAWK CHANNEL...WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND ALSO
THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AROUND DRY TORTUGAS NATIONAL
PARK. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
STRAITS...HAWK CHANNEL...AND THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
NORTH OF THE LOWER KEYS. FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SLACKENING BREEZES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...UNTIL 12Z/31ST...THE BEST CHANCE FOR A MVFR EPISODE OR
PERHAPS A VICINITY SHOWER WILL BE BETWEEN 06 AND
12Z...OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE AT THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON TERMINALS. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS (110) OF 12 AND 17 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS WILL SLACKEN SLIGHTLY TONIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...1891...3.76 INCHES
OF RAIN FELL AT KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD RAINFALL ON
AUGUST 30TH FOR KEY WEST. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO
1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  85  90  84  90 / 20 20 20 30
MARATHON  85  92  84  92 / 20 20 20 30

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT TONIGHT FOR GMZ034-044-054-
055-074-075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....APA
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 301840
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
240 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS AND AREA COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. THE TIGHTEST
GRADIENT AND STRONGEST WINDS ARE SOUTHWEST OF AN IMAGINARY LINE WHICH
EXTENDS FROM SOUTH OF ANDROS TO NORTH OF THE DRY TORTUGAS.
TEMPERATURES ARE JUST ABOVE 90F...AND SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE ITS INFLUENCE TONIGHT...PRESSED AGAINST LOWER PRESSURE
SLIDING WEST INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AS THIS WAVE PUSHES INTO
THE YUCATAN...ITS EXTREME NORTHEASTERN FLANK APPEARS TO REMOVE JUST
ENOUGH INHIBITION ACROSS OUR CWA TO WARRANT A 20 PERCENT POP. FRESH
BREEZES TONIGHT...WILL SLOWLY SLACKEN...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MINOR NOCTURNAL SURGES. AS BREEZES SLACKEN...THE LOW
LEVEL INVERSION WILL SLOWLY ERODE. FOR THIS REASON...POPS INCREASE TO
30 PERCENT ON MONDAY. THERE ARE NO DISCERNING MESOSCALE OR SYNOPTIC
FEATURES TO IDENTIFY...JUST LEANING CLOSER TO CLIMO. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...A TUTT CELL WILL PUSH WEST
THROUGH THE BAHAMAS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...AN INVERTED
TROUGH IN THE EASTERLIES IS PROGGED TO PASS THROUGH THE KEYS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WHETHER OR NOT THESE TWO FEATURES
COMMINGLE VERTICALLY...REMAINS TO BE SEEN. BASED ON THIS
UNCERTAINTY...WE HAVE RETAINED A WINDOW OF 40 PERCENT POPS...FOLLOWED
BY A LOW END CHANCE TO CLOSE OUT THE LONG TERM.

&&

.MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA AND HAWK CHANNEL...WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND ALSO
THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AROUND DRY TORTUGAS NATIONAL
PARK. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
STRAITS...HAWK CHANNEL...AND THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
NORTH OF THE LOWER KEYS. FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SLACKENING BREEZES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...UNTIL 12Z/31ST...THE BEST CHANCE FOR A MVFR EPISODE OR
PERHAPS A VICINITY SHOWER WILL BE BETWEEN 06 AND
12Z...OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE AT THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON TERMINALS. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS (110) OF 12 AND 17 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS WILL SLACKEN SLIGHTLY TONIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...1891...3.76 INCHES
OF RAIN FELL AT KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD RAINFALL ON
AUGUST 30TH FOR KEY WEST. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO
1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  85  90  84  90 / 20 20 20 30
MARATHON  85  92  84  92 / 20 20 20 30

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT TONIGHT FOR GMZ034-044-054-
055-074-075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....APA
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 301426
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1026 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS AND AREA COASTAL WATERS. THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT AND
STRONGEST WINDS ARE SOUTHWEST OF AN IMAGINARY LINE WHICH EXTENDS FROM
NEAR ELBOW CAY TO NORTH OF THE DRY TORTUGAS. TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWLY
CLIMBING THROUGH THE UPPER 80S...AND SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY
UNDERNEATH A THIN VEIL OF HIGHER CLOUDS.

.FORECAST...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ITS INFLUENCE
TODAY AND TONIGHT...PRESSED AGAINST LOWER PRESSURE SLIDING WEST
THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THUS...EXPECT THE FRESH BREEZES TO
PERSIST. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL TODAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCES TONIGHT. AS THE WAVE TO OUR SOUTH PUSHES INTO THE
YUCATAN...ITS EXTREME NORTHEASTERN FLANK APPEARS TO REMOVE JUST
ENOUGH INHIBITION ACROSS OUR AREA TO WARRANT A 20 PERCENT POP
OVERNIGHT. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. A FEW WAVE TWEAKS WERE
MADE IN THE CWF TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE RECENT SWAN OUTPUT.

&&

.MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE AND THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AROUND DRY TORTUGAS NATIONAL PARK. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE STRAITS...HAWK
CHANNEL...AND THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NORTH OF THE
LOWER KEYS. FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH SLACKENING BREEZES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...UNTIL 00Z/31ST...VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT THE KEY
WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS (110) OF 10
TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...1891...3.76 INCHES
OF RAIN FELL AT KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD RAINFALL ON
AUGUST 30TH FOR KEY WEST. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO
1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ034-054-
     055-074-075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....APA
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 301426
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1026 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS AND AREA COASTAL WATERS. THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT AND
STRONGEST WINDS ARE SOUTHWEST OF AN IMAGINARY LINE WHICH EXTENDS FROM
NEAR ELBOW CAY TO NORTH OF THE DRY TORTUGAS. TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWLY
CLIMBING THROUGH THE UPPER 80S...AND SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY
UNDERNEATH A THIN VEIL OF HIGHER CLOUDS.

.FORECAST...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ITS INFLUENCE
TODAY AND TONIGHT...PRESSED AGAINST LOWER PRESSURE SLIDING WEST
THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THUS...EXPECT THE FRESH BREEZES TO
PERSIST. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL TODAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCES TONIGHT. AS THE WAVE TO OUR SOUTH PUSHES INTO THE
YUCATAN...ITS EXTREME NORTHEASTERN FLANK APPEARS TO REMOVE JUST
ENOUGH INHIBITION ACROSS OUR AREA TO WARRANT A 20 PERCENT POP
OVERNIGHT. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. A FEW WAVE TWEAKS WERE
MADE IN THE CWF TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE RECENT SWAN OUTPUT.

&&

.MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE AND THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AROUND DRY TORTUGAS NATIONAL PARK. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE STRAITS...HAWK
CHANNEL...AND THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NORTH OF THE
LOWER KEYS. FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH SLACKENING BREEZES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...UNTIL 00Z/31ST...VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT THE KEY
WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS (110) OF 10
TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...1891...3.76 INCHES
OF RAIN FELL AT KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD RAINFALL ON
AUGUST 30TH FOR KEY WEST. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO
1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ034-054-
     055-074-075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....APA
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 301144
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
744 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.AVIATION...
UNTIL 00Z/31ST...VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON TERMINALS WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS (110) OF 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS.

&&

$$

AVIATION...CLR

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 301144
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
744 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.AVIATION...
UNTIL 00Z/31ST...VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON TERMINALS WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS (110) OF 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS.

&&

$$

AVIATION...CLR

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 300854
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
454 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
OBSERVATIONS/TRENDS -- FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES PREVAIL EARLY
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THE
WINDS ARE BLOWING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF A LARGE...DEEP...
AND EXPANDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RIDGE HAS LED TO DRYING THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE...AND FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ABLE
TO DEVELOP NEARBY OVERNIGHT OWING TO A COMBINATION OF BOTH LOW-LEVEL
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ENERGY AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT INTO THE FEW
LOW-ALTITUDE UPDRAFTS ABLE TO INITIATE. THE BREEZE AND LACK OF RAIN
HAS KEPT BOTH AIR TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINTS QUITE HIGH IN KEYS ISLAND
COMMUNITIES OVERNIGHT. EVEN NOW...AIR TEMPERATURES REMAIN PINNED NEAR
85F MOST LOCATIONS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

FORECASTS -- LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST REASONING FROM THE LAST CYCLE
IS OFFERED AT THIS TIME. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST PROBABLY
THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE THE SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN ENOUGH TO
YIELD SLACKENING GRADIENT FLOW. MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
BELOW CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND THANKS TO LARGE-SCALE
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND A GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE
BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW ORIENTATION. A CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL
REMAIN A NON-FACTOR AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF THE KEYS DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. LATER...AROUND WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...A WESTWARD-
MOVING TUTT-TYPE CELL MAY DEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY TO ENHANCE LARGE-SCALE
LIFT LOCALLY. HOWEVER...THIS REMAINS TO BE SEEN WITH CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY. THEREFORE...WE WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH MEASURABLE RAIN
CHANCES VERY NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE AND THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AROUND DRY TORTUGAS NATIONAL PARK. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE STRAITS...HAWK CHANNEL...AND THE
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NORTH OF THE LOWER KEYS. FRESH
EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH
SLACKENING BREEZES NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS AND GUSTY...WITH GUSTS NEARING 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  91  85  90  84 / 10 20 20 20
MARATHON  93  85  92  84 / 10 20 20 20
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR GMZ034-GMZ054-
     GMZ055-GMZ074-GMZ075.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BWC

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 300854
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
454 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
OBSERVATIONS/TRENDS -- FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES PREVAIL EARLY
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THE
WINDS ARE BLOWING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF A LARGE...DEEP...
AND EXPANDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RIDGE HAS LED TO DRYING THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE...AND FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ABLE
TO DEVELOP NEARBY OVERNIGHT OWING TO A COMBINATION OF BOTH LOW-LEVEL
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ENERGY AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT INTO THE FEW
LOW-ALTITUDE UPDRAFTS ABLE TO INITIATE. THE BREEZE AND LACK OF RAIN
HAS KEPT BOTH AIR TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINTS QUITE HIGH IN KEYS ISLAND
COMMUNITIES OVERNIGHT. EVEN NOW...AIR TEMPERATURES REMAIN PINNED NEAR
85F MOST LOCATIONS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

FORECASTS -- LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST REASONING FROM THE LAST CYCLE
IS OFFERED AT THIS TIME. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST PROBABLY
THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE THE SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN ENOUGH TO
YIELD SLACKENING GRADIENT FLOW. MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
BELOW CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND THANKS TO LARGE-SCALE
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND A GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE
BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW ORIENTATION. A CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL
REMAIN A NON-FACTOR AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF THE KEYS DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. LATER...AROUND WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...A WESTWARD-
MOVING TUTT-TYPE CELL MAY DEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY TO ENHANCE LARGE-SCALE
LIFT LOCALLY. HOWEVER...THIS REMAINS TO BE SEEN WITH CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY. THEREFORE...WE WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH MEASURABLE RAIN
CHANCES VERY NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE AND THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AROUND DRY TORTUGAS NATIONAL PARK. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE STRAITS...HAWK CHANNEL...AND THE
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NORTH OF THE LOWER KEYS. FRESH
EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH
SLACKENING BREEZES NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS AND GUSTY...WITH GUSTS NEARING 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  91  85  90  84 / 10 20 20 20
MARATHON  93  85  92  84 / 10 20 20 20
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR GMZ034-GMZ054-
     GMZ055-GMZ074-GMZ075.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BWC

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 291815
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
215 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE HAS BUILT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
ATLANTIC...AS A RESULT...EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES ARE FRESHENING.
WINDS AT THE AREA C-MANS ARE NEAR 15 KNOTS. A RECENT ASCAT ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS PORTRAYS A SWATH OF NEAR 20 KNOTS APPROACHING. FINALLY...UP
STREAM CLOUD ELEMENTS ACROSS THE CAY SAL BANK ARE MOVING AT NEARLY 20
KNOTS. THIS MORNING`S RAOB OBSERVATION...CURRENT SATELLITE BASED
SOUNDINGS...AND MIMIC TPW LOOPS INDICATE A DRIER AND MORE INHIBITIVE
ATMOSPHERE IS FILTERING INTO THE FLORIDA KEYS. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE
PERSISTED WITHIN THE CONVERGENT FLOW AHEAD OF THE INCREASING
WINDS...BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD...NOR DEEP.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...THE GRADIENT ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL TIGHTEN
TONIGHT...AND REMAIN TIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. IN CONCERT WITH
THIS SETUP...A TROPICAL WAVE...CURRENTLY SOUTH OF EASTERN CUBA...WILL
SLIDE TO THE WEST THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN. THUS...THE STRONGEST MASS
SUPERHIGHWAY WILL RESULT AS THIS WAVE PASSES TO OUR SOUTH ON
SATURDAY. DUE TO THE DRY AND INHIBITIVE AIR ABOVE 850 MB...RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE SQUELCHED. MINOR UNDULATIONS IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL RESULT IN SWATHS OF CONVERGENT SHOWERS...SO WE HAVE NOT REMOVED
POPS COMPLETELY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...WHILE
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY
RELAX MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES...MESOSCALE
PROCESSES WILL CREEP BACK IN. MAIN FEATURES IN THE LONG TERM PATTERN
INCLUDE AN APPROACHING TUTT MONDAY NIGHT...ITS AXIS NEAR ANDROS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND SLOWLY FILLS THURSDAY NIGHT. AN INVERTED TROUGH
IN THE EASTERLIES WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY...AXIS THURSDAY...AND ITS
BACK SIDE WILL BE THROUGH ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL REFLECTION
OF THIS TROUGH IS NOT AGREED UPON BY AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.
NEVERTHELESS...WE HAVE RETAINED THE PREVIOUSLY INTRODUCED WINDOW OF
40 PERCENT POPS...FOLLOWED BY NEAR CLIMO POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TONIGHT...RESULTING IN FRESH EASTERLY BREEZES THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE
WESTERN FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE GULF WATERS SURROUNDING THE DRY
TORTUGAS...TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. BREEZES MAY
SLACKEN ON MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...UNTIL 12Z/30TH...OUTSIDE OF A FEW BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS
NEAR 025...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS NEAR 15 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS THIS EVENING OR EARLY TONIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...1977...3.29 INCHES
OF RAIN FELL AT KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD RAINFALL ON
AUGUST 29TH FOR KEY WEST. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO
1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  85  90  85  90 / 10 10 20 20
MARATHON  84  92  84  92 / 10 10 20 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY
     FOR GMZ034-054-055-074-075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....APA
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 291815
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
215 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE HAS BUILT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
ATLANTIC...AS A RESULT...EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES ARE FRESHENING.
WINDS AT THE AREA C-MANS ARE NEAR 15 KNOTS. A RECENT ASCAT ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS PORTRAYS A SWATH OF NEAR 20 KNOTS APPROACHING. FINALLY...UP
STREAM CLOUD ELEMENTS ACROSS THE CAY SAL BANK ARE MOVING AT NEARLY 20
KNOTS. THIS MORNING`S RAOB OBSERVATION...CURRENT SATELLITE BASED
SOUNDINGS...AND MIMIC TPW LOOPS INDICATE A DRIER AND MORE INHIBITIVE
ATMOSPHERE IS FILTERING INTO THE FLORIDA KEYS. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE
PERSISTED WITHIN THE CONVERGENT FLOW AHEAD OF THE INCREASING
WINDS...BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD...NOR DEEP.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...THE GRADIENT ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL TIGHTEN
TONIGHT...AND REMAIN TIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. IN CONCERT WITH
THIS SETUP...A TROPICAL WAVE...CURRENTLY SOUTH OF EASTERN CUBA...WILL
SLIDE TO THE WEST THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN. THUS...THE STRONGEST MASS
SUPERHIGHWAY WILL RESULT AS THIS WAVE PASSES TO OUR SOUTH ON
SATURDAY. DUE TO THE DRY AND INHIBITIVE AIR ABOVE 850 MB...RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE SQUELCHED. MINOR UNDULATIONS IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL RESULT IN SWATHS OF CONVERGENT SHOWERS...SO WE HAVE NOT REMOVED
POPS COMPLETELY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...WHILE
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY
RELAX MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES...MESOSCALE
PROCESSES WILL CREEP BACK IN. MAIN FEATURES IN THE LONG TERM PATTERN
INCLUDE AN APPROACHING TUTT MONDAY NIGHT...ITS AXIS NEAR ANDROS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND SLOWLY FILLS THURSDAY NIGHT. AN INVERTED TROUGH
IN THE EASTERLIES WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY...AXIS THURSDAY...AND ITS
BACK SIDE WILL BE THROUGH ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL REFLECTION
OF THIS TROUGH IS NOT AGREED UPON BY AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.
NEVERTHELESS...WE HAVE RETAINED THE PREVIOUSLY INTRODUCED WINDOW OF
40 PERCENT POPS...FOLLOWED BY NEAR CLIMO POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TONIGHT...RESULTING IN FRESH EASTERLY BREEZES THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE
WESTERN FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE GULF WATERS SURROUNDING THE DRY
TORTUGAS...TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. BREEZES MAY
SLACKEN ON MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...UNTIL 12Z/30TH...OUTSIDE OF A FEW BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS
NEAR 025...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS NEAR 15 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS THIS EVENING OR EARLY TONIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...1977...3.29 INCHES
OF RAIN FELL AT KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD RAINFALL ON
AUGUST 29TH FOR KEY WEST. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO
1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  85  90  85  90 / 10 10 20 20
MARATHON  84  92  84  92 / 10 10 20 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY
     FOR GMZ034-054-055-074-075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....APA
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 291428
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1028 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE HAS BUILT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
ATLANTIC...AS A RESULT...EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES ARE FRESHENING.
WINDS AT THE AREA C-MANS RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS ALONG THE
REEF...TO NEAR 15 KNOTS AT PULASKI SHOAL. THIS MORNING`S SOUNDING IN
NASSAU SAMPLED 22 KNOTS AT 2K FEET. FINALLY...UP STREAM CLOUD
ELEMENTS ACROSS THE CAY SAL BANK ARE MOVING AT NEARLY 20 KNOTS. THE
KEY WEST RAOB OBSERVATION...SATELLITE BASED SOUNDINGS...AND MIMIC TPW
LOOPS INDICATE A DRIER AND MORE INHIBITIVE ATMOSPHERE IS FILTERING
INTO THE FLORIDA KEYS. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE PERSISTED WITHIN THE
CONVERGENT FLOW AHEAD OF THE INCREASING WINDS...BUT NOTHING
WIDESPREAD...NOR DEEP.

.FORECAST...WE ISSUED AN EARLIER UPDATE TO REMOVE THUNDER AND
INCREASE WINDS. EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS...SAVE FOR A FEW QUICKLY
MOVING MARITIME SHOWERS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...AND TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE 90.

&&

.MARINE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...RESULTING IN FRESH EASTERLY
BREEZES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. BREEZES MAY START TO DECREASE ON MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT.


&&

.AVIATION...UNTIL 00Z/30TH...OUTSIDE OF A BRIEF MVFR ENCOUNTER THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE AT THE
KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF AROUND 10
KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 15 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 10
AND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.CLIMATE...ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...1977...3.29 INCHES
OF RAIN FELL AT KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD RAINFALL ON
AUGUST 29TH FOR KEY WEST. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO
1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....APA
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 291428
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1028 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE HAS BUILT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
ATLANTIC...AS A RESULT...EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES ARE FRESHENING.
WINDS AT THE AREA C-MANS RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS ALONG THE
REEF...TO NEAR 15 KNOTS AT PULASKI SHOAL. THIS MORNING`S SOUNDING IN
NASSAU SAMPLED 22 KNOTS AT 2K FEET. FINALLY...UP STREAM CLOUD
ELEMENTS ACROSS THE CAY SAL BANK ARE MOVING AT NEARLY 20 KNOTS. THE
KEY WEST RAOB OBSERVATION...SATELLITE BASED SOUNDINGS...AND MIMIC TPW
LOOPS INDICATE A DRIER AND MORE INHIBITIVE ATMOSPHERE IS FILTERING
INTO THE FLORIDA KEYS. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE PERSISTED WITHIN THE
CONVERGENT FLOW AHEAD OF THE INCREASING WINDS...BUT NOTHING
WIDESPREAD...NOR DEEP.

.FORECAST...WE ISSUED AN EARLIER UPDATE TO REMOVE THUNDER AND
INCREASE WINDS. EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS...SAVE FOR A FEW QUICKLY
MOVING MARITIME SHOWERS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...AND TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE 90.

&&

.MARINE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...RESULTING IN FRESH EASTERLY
BREEZES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. BREEZES MAY START TO DECREASE ON MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT.


&&

.AVIATION...UNTIL 00Z/30TH...OUTSIDE OF A BRIEF MVFR ENCOUNTER THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE AT THE
KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF AROUND 10
KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 15 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 10
AND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.CLIMATE...ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...1977...3.29 INCHES
OF RAIN FELL AT KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD RAINFALL ON
AUGUST 29TH FOR KEY WEST. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO
1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....APA
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 291149
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
749 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.AVIATION...
UNTIL 00Z/30TH...OUTSIDE OF A BRIEF MVFR ENCOUNTER THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE AT THE KEY WEST
AND MARATHON TERMINALS. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 15 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 10 AND
15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

AVIATION...APA

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 291149
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
749 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.AVIATION...
UNTIL 00Z/30TH...OUTSIDE OF A BRIEF MVFR ENCOUNTER THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE AT THE KEY WEST
AND MARATHON TERMINALS. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 15 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 10 AND
15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

AVIATION...APA

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 290756
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
356 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
THE KBYX RADAR IS SHOWING ZERO ACTIVITY ACROSS THE 250 MILE SCAN.
THERE ARE A FEW CLOUDS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST WITH LITTLE BLOCKING A
STARRY SKY AS THE NEW MOON GIVES WAY TO A WAXING CRESCENT. WINDS ARE
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 KNOTS...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
PARKED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA.

.FORECAST...
DEEP RIDGING IS TAKING OVER THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANALYSIS OF THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE SAHARAN AIR
LAYER SUGGESTS THAT A SAL EPISODE IS TRAVELING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND
HEADING TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS. MIMIC DERIVED TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATERS IS ALSO SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT DRY SWATH OVER THE
SAME AREA. WITH THIS IN MIND AND THE CURRENT GUIDANCE BEING VERY
STINGY WITH RESPECT TO MOISTURE AND THE RIDGE...EXPECT TO KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND DUE TO THE RIDGE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH. WILL GO WITH A MORE
SEASONAL LOW END CHANCE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AND A WEAK
WESTWARD PROPAGATING TROPICAL WAVE PASSES SOUTH OF CUBA MONDAY. BY
WEDNESDAY...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE
AREA PROVIDING THE ADDED LIFTING REQUIRED THAT WILL GET THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THROUGH THE CAP. WILL TEMPER RAIN CHANCES A BIT WITH A
MODERATE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL WE
GET A BETTER RESOLUTION ON THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY WHILE INCREASING TO MODERATE
TO FRESH BY SATURDAY MORNING...REMAINING AT 15 TO 20 THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTH AS A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE
PASSES TO OUR SOUTH...RESULTING IN GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST BREEZES
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS THROUGH
AT LEAST THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT
OR AROUND 10 KNOTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1881...THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST REACHED 95 DEGREES. THIS IS A LONG-STANDING
DAILY HIGH RECORD TEMPERATURE FOR AUGUST 29 IN KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE
RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  91  85  89  85 / 20 10 10 20
MARATHON  92  84  92  84 / 20 10 10 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....04

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 290756
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
356 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
THE KBYX RADAR IS SHOWING ZERO ACTIVITY ACROSS THE 250 MILE SCAN.
THERE ARE A FEW CLOUDS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST WITH LITTLE BLOCKING A
STARRY SKY AS THE NEW MOON GIVES WAY TO A WAXING CRESCENT. WINDS ARE
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 KNOTS...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
PARKED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA.

.FORECAST...
DEEP RIDGING IS TAKING OVER THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANALYSIS OF THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE SAHARAN AIR
LAYER SUGGESTS THAT A SAL EPISODE IS TRAVELING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND
HEADING TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS. MIMIC DERIVED TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATERS IS ALSO SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT DRY SWATH OVER THE
SAME AREA. WITH THIS IN MIND AND THE CURRENT GUIDANCE BEING VERY
STINGY WITH RESPECT TO MOISTURE AND THE RIDGE...EXPECT TO KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND DUE TO THE RIDGE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH. WILL GO WITH A MORE
SEASONAL LOW END CHANCE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AND A WEAK
WESTWARD PROPAGATING TROPICAL WAVE PASSES SOUTH OF CUBA MONDAY. BY
WEDNESDAY...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE
AREA PROVIDING THE ADDED LIFTING REQUIRED THAT WILL GET THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THROUGH THE CAP. WILL TEMPER RAIN CHANCES A BIT WITH A
MODERATE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL WE
GET A BETTER RESOLUTION ON THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY WHILE INCREASING TO MODERATE
TO FRESH BY SATURDAY MORNING...REMAINING AT 15 TO 20 THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTH AS A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE
PASSES TO OUR SOUTH...RESULTING IN GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST BREEZES
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS THROUGH
AT LEAST THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT
OR AROUND 10 KNOTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1881...THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST REACHED 95 DEGREES. THIS IS A LONG-STANDING
DAILY HIGH RECORD TEMPERATURE FOR AUGUST 29 IN KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE
RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  91  85  89  85 / 20 10 10 20
MARATHON  92  84  92  84 / 20 10 10 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....04

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 290234
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1034 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - AN ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND
FLORIDA...DELIVERING GENTLE SOUTHEAST BREEZES ACROSS THE KEYS AND
SURROUNDING WATERS. EVENING CUBAN CONVECTION HAVE DISSIPATED...AND
VERY LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS PRESENT ACROSS KEYS WATERS. THIS
EVENINGS SOUNDING INDICATED AMPLE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE...WITH ONLY A
HINT OF INHIBITION AT THE LOWER LEVELS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE
MID 80S WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S.

SHORT TERM UPDATE (OVERNIGHT) - SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN GENTLE OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST DUE TO RIDGING TO OUR NORTH. THE BACKGROUND MOIST
AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SOME UPSTREAM SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PRESENT ON LOCAL RADARS JUSTIFY HOLDING THE
CURRENT LOW CHANCE POPS. THE ONGOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO
UPDATE IS PLANNED.

&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ON KEYS
WATERS DUE TO RIDGING ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEAST. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ON KEYS WATERS OVERNIGHT. NO CHANGES WERE MADE IN THE EVENING MARINE
UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF A PASSING
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY AT THE KEY WEST TERMINAL...BUT THE
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST.
THEREFORE ANY STORM ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT WILL BE HANDLED WITH
AMENDMENTS IF NECESSARY.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....DEVANAS

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 290234
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1034 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - AN ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND
FLORIDA...DELIVERING GENTLE SOUTHEAST BREEZES ACROSS THE KEYS AND
SURROUNDING WATERS. EVENING CUBAN CONVECTION HAVE DISSIPATED...AND
VERY LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS PRESENT ACROSS KEYS WATERS. THIS
EVENINGS SOUNDING INDICATED AMPLE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE...WITH ONLY A
HINT OF INHIBITION AT THE LOWER LEVELS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE
MID 80S WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S.

SHORT TERM UPDATE (OVERNIGHT) - SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN GENTLE OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST DUE TO RIDGING TO OUR NORTH. THE BACKGROUND MOIST
AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SOME UPSTREAM SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PRESENT ON LOCAL RADARS JUSTIFY HOLDING THE
CURRENT LOW CHANCE POPS. THE ONGOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO
UPDATE IS PLANNED.

&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ON KEYS
WATERS DUE TO RIDGING ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEAST. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ON KEYS WATERS OVERNIGHT. NO CHANGES WERE MADE IN THE EVENING MARINE
UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF A PASSING
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY AT THE KEY WEST TERMINAL...BUT THE
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST.
THEREFORE ANY STORM ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT WILL BE HANDLED WITH
AMENDMENTS IF NECESSARY.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....DEVANAS

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 281845
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
245 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE ONLY NOTABLE CLOUD
FEATURE BEING THE STREAMERS FORMING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOWER
KEYS. A FEW OF THESE STREAMERS HAVE POPPED UP INTERMITTENT SHOWER
ACTIVITY...BUT OTHERWISE KBYX RADAR HAS SHOWN A MOSTLY CLEAR SCAN
THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE TOPPING OUT AROUND 90
DEGREES...AND DEW POINTS ARE RUNNING VERY WARM IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S. A BROAD CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO LOOSE ITS IDENTITY AS IT FLOWS NORTH ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE MEAN STEERING FLOW IS AIDING ITS
DEPARTURE AS A DEEP LAYER ATLANTIC ANTICYCLONE IS INDUCING A WIDE
SWATH OF SOUTH-SOUTHESTERLIES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF AND
SOUTHERN FLORIDA. UPSTREAM CONDITIONS ARE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH VERY FEW
VISIBLE BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.

.SHORT TERM...
DESPITE THE VERY RAPID MOISTENING OF THE ENTIRE PROFILE IN THE PAST
24 HOURS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE HARD TO COME BY TODAY.
INSTABILITY ABOUNDS...MOISTURE IS SUFFICIENT...BUT ALL THAT IS
LACKING IS A TRIGGERING MECHANISM FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS TO HAVE DECENT
COVERAGE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THAT TRIGGERING MECHANISM MAY COME
TONIGHT IN THE FORM OF CUBAN LAND BREEZE BOUNDARIES...BUT THERE IS AN
EXPECTED SHIFT IN LOW LEVEL WIND FLOWS TO A LIGHT EAST SOUTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION. THIS WOULD GENERALLY STEER MOST ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
WESTERN STRAITS...AND WEST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. ANDROS MAY CONTRIBUTE
A FEW LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES TO SUPPORT CONVECTION MAINLY NEAR THE
UPPER KEYS. ALL FACTORS CONSIDERED...EXPECT THAT A LOW END CHANCE POP
(30 PERCENT) IS THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION FOR TONIGHT...WHICH IS
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. WILL KEEP THE SAME POP
FORECASTS FOR FRIDAY DAYTIME AS WELL. THEREAFTER... A PASSING SAHARAN
AIR LAYER PROFILE WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA
REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. CORRESPONDINGLY WITH THIS
SAL...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME BRISK AS A CONSISTENTLY
FORECASTED...YET SUBTLE LOW LEVEL WIND SURGE WILL COME ACROSS THE
KEYS. DIURNAL TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE MUTED ON
ACCOUNT OF THESE OCCASIONALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS...AND SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY ONWARDS)...
RAIN CHANCES WILL REBOUND TO NEAR CLIMO VALUES THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF THE WORK WEEK. IN ADDING THE NEW PERIODS TO THIS FORECAST
CYCLE...TOOK NOTE OF THE DECENT CONSISTENCY OF THE EUROPEAN AND GFS
MODELS IN BRINGING A COUPLED TUTT LOW ACROSS THE KEYS FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. WHILE THIS PERIOD WILL BE EXAMINED SEVERAL MORE
TIMES THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK...EXPECT THAT THIS FEATURE WILL INSPIRE
AT LEAST A FEW PERIODS OF HIGH END CHANCE POP VALUES. AS
SUCH...INCREASED THE POPS FOR THE LATER PART OF THE FORECAST TO 40
PERCENT. OTHER THAN POPS... ALL OTHER SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS WILL
VARY LITTLE IN THE EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
RESIDUAL SEAS FROM THE LAST FEW GUSTY FORECAST PERIODS SHOULD MOSTLY
BE WASHED OUT OF THE KEYS WATERS BY THIS EVENING...AND A LIGHTER...MORE
CLIMATOLOGICAL WIND REGIME SHOULD BE IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY.
THEREAFTER...AN ESE SURGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD FROM FRIDAY NIGHT...AND
CAUTIONARY WORDING CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HARD TO COME BY THROUGH
THAT PERIOD HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION...
UNTIL 12Z/29TH...A POSSIBLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MIGRATING NORTHWARD
FROM THE ISLAND OF CUBA THIS EVENING AND A LOW LEVEL WIND SURGE
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING POSE A CHANCE FOR A MVFR
ENCOUNTER...OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT THE KEY WEST
AND MARATHON TERMINALS. MOSTLY SOUTH WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL
TURN SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1881...THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST REACHED 95 DEGREES. THIS IS A LONG-STANDING
DAILY HIGH RECORD TEMPERATURE FOR AUGUST 28 IN KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE
RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........MSB
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....APA
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 281845
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
245 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE ONLY NOTABLE CLOUD
FEATURE BEING THE STREAMERS FORMING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOWER
KEYS. A FEW OF THESE STREAMERS HAVE POPPED UP INTERMITTENT SHOWER
ACTIVITY...BUT OTHERWISE KBYX RADAR HAS SHOWN A MOSTLY CLEAR SCAN
THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE TOPPING OUT AROUND 90
DEGREES...AND DEW POINTS ARE RUNNING VERY WARM IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S. A BROAD CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO LOOSE ITS IDENTITY AS IT FLOWS NORTH ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE MEAN STEERING FLOW IS AIDING ITS
DEPARTURE AS A DEEP LAYER ATLANTIC ANTICYCLONE IS INDUCING A WIDE
SWATH OF SOUTH-SOUTHESTERLIES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF AND
SOUTHERN FLORIDA. UPSTREAM CONDITIONS ARE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH VERY FEW
VISIBLE BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.

.SHORT TERM...
DESPITE THE VERY RAPID MOISTENING OF THE ENTIRE PROFILE IN THE PAST
24 HOURS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE HARD TO COME BY TODAY.
INSTABILITY ABOUNDS...MOISTURE IS SUFFICIENT...BUT ALL THAT IS
LACKING IS A TRIGGERING MECHANISM FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS TO HAVE DECENT
COVERAGE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THAT TRIGGERING MECHANISM MAY COME
TONIGHT IN THE FORM OF CUBAN LAND BREEZE BOUNDARIES...BUT THERE IS AN
EXPECTED SHIFT IN LOW LEVEL WIND FLOWS TO A LIGHT EAST SOUTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION. THIS WOULD GENERALLY STEER MOST ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
WESTERN STRAITS...AND WEST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. ANDROS MAY CONTRIBUTE
A FEW LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES TO SUPPORT CONVECTION MAINLY NEAR THE
UPPER KEYS. ALL FACTORS CONSIDERED...EXPECT THAT A LOW END CHANCE POP
(30 PERCENT) IS THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION FOR TONIGHT...WHICH IS
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. WILL KEEP THE SAME POP
FORECASTS FOR FRIDAY DAYTIME AS WELL. THEREAFTER... A PASSING SAHARAN
AIR LAYER PROFILE WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA
REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. CORRESPONDINGLY WITH THIS
SAL...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME BRISK AS A CONSISTENTLY
FORECASTED...YET SUBTLE LOW LEVEL WIND SURGE WILL COME ACROSS THE
KEYS. DIURNAL TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE MUTED ON
ACCOUNT OF THESE OCCASIONALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS...AND SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY ONWARDS)...
RAIN CHANCES WILL REBOUND TO NEAR CLIMO VALUES THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF THE WORK WEEK. IN ADDING THE NEW PERIODS TO THIS FORECAST
CYCLE...TOOK NOTE OF THE DECENT CONSISTENCY OF THE EUROPEAN AND GFS
MODELS IN BRINGING A COUPLED TUTT LOW ACROSS THE KEYS FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. WHILE THIS PERIOD WILL BE EXAMINED SEVERAL MORE
TIMES THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK...EXPECT THAT THIS FEATURE WILL INSPIRE
AT LEAST A FEW PERIODS OF HIGH END CHANCE POP VALUES. AS
SUCH...INCREASED THE POPS FOR THE LATER PART OF THE FORECAST TO 40
PERCENT. OTHER THAN POPS... ALL OTHER SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS WILL
VARY LITTLE IN THE EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
RESIDUAL SEAS FROM THE LAST FEW GUSTY FORECAST PERIODS SHOULD MOSTLY
BE WASHED OUT OF THE KEYS WATERS BY THIS EVENING...AND A LIGHTER...MORE
CLIMATOLOGICAL WIND REGIME SHOULD BE IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY.
THEREAFTER...AN ESE SURGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD FROM FRIDAY NIGHT...AND
CAUTIONARY WORDING CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HARD TO COME BY THROUGH
THAT PERIOD HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION...
UNTIL 12Z/29TH...A POSSIBLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MIGRATING NORTHWARD
FROM THE ISLAND OF CUBA THIS EVENING AND A LOW LEVEL WIND SURGE
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING POSE A CHANCE FOR A MVFR
ENCOUNTER...OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT THE KEY WEST
AND MARATHON TERMINALS. MOSTLY SOUTH WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL
TURN SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1881...THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST REACHED 95 DEGREES. THIS IS A LONG-STANDING
DAILY HIGH RECORD TEMPERATURE FOR AUGUST 28 IN KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE
RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........MSB
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....APA
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 281416
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1016 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
VISIBLE SATELLITE OVERLAYED WITH LIGHTNING AND SURFACE WIND
OBSERVATIONS SHOWS THAT THE MAIN CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LEADING EDGE OF A LOW LEVEL GULF TROUGH HAS PULLED NORTH OF THE
SERVICE AREA...AND IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
THE FLORIDA MAINLAND. SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN
AT THIS TIME MAINLY DUE A THIN VEIL OF CIRRUS DECKS THAT WERE THE
REMNANTS OF EARLIER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. KBYX RADAR SHOWS A MOSTLY
CLEAR SCAN IN OUR SERVICE AREA WITH ONLY A FEW LIGHT PATCHES OF RAIN
OVER OUR NORTHERN GULF ZONES. AFTER AN ROBUST EARLY MORNING
SURGE...SOUTHERLY WINDS RAPIDLY WEAKENED ACROSS THE AREA. COASTAL
STATIONS ARE REPORTING NEAR 15 KNOT WINDS IN MOST LOCATIONS...AND
ISLAND STATIONS ARE 5 TO 10 MPH. MORNING SOUNDING CONTINUED THE TREND
OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTENING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS AND PWAT VALUES
ROSE TO 2.16 INCHES. LAUNCH TIME WAS IN THE MIDST OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURGE...SO LOW LEVEL WINDS WERE BRISK AND SOUTHERLY.

.SHORT TERM...
MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WERE VISIBLE ON THE MORNING
SOUNDING...BUT WITH THE MAIN AREA OF DYNAMIC FORCING CONTINUING TO
PULL NORTH OF THE SERVICE AREA... EXPECT THAT THE MAIN TRIGGER FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE BOUNDARY BOUNDARY COLLISIONS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WITH GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE TODAY TIME PERIOD. EXPECT THAT CUBAN SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL
INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT FORMATION OF THESE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES...AND
THIS TREND IS ALREADY INDICATED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE TO OUR SOUTH.
WITH NO CONVECTIVE TRIGGERS UPSTREAM AND WITH CLOUD LINES UNLIKELY IN
A SOUTHERLY FLOW...EXPECT THAT ISOLATED POPS WILL BEST REPRESENT THE
CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. UPDATED PUBLIC
WIND...WEATHER...AND SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT THESE CHANGES FOR THE DAY.
NO OTHER CHANGES NECESSARY BEYOND THE FIRST PERIOD AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
AND EARLY MORNING UPDATE TO THE FORECAST WAS NECESSARY TO ACCOUNT FOR
A MORE PROLONGED THAN EXPECTED SURGE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA. ON ACCOUNT OF THIS UPDATE...THE CHANGES IN THE 1030 UPDATE WILL
LIKELY BE MINIMAL. SEAS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND EXPOSED
SOUTHEASTERN GULF ZONES WILL LIKELY REMAIN AGITATED FOR A PERIOD OF
TIME THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THIS SURGE...BUT SLACKENING
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY ALLOW SEAS TO FALL TO TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...
UNTIL 00Z/29TH...VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON TERMINALS WITH ANY LOW CLOUD BASES EXPECTED NEAR 025.
MOSTLY SOUTH WINDS OF LESS THAN 10 KNOTS WILL TURN SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THIS EVENING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1881...THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST REACHED 95 DEGREES. THIS IS A LONG-STANDING
DAILY HIGH RECORD TEMPERATURE FOR AUGUST 28 IN KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE
RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........MSB
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....APA
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 281416
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1016 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
VISIBLE SATELLITE OVERLAYED WITH LIGHTNING AND SURFACE WIND
OBSERVATIONS SHOWS THAT THE MAIN CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LEADING EDGE OF A LOW LEVEL GULF TROUGH HAS PULLED NORTH OF THE
SERVICE AREA...AND IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
THE FLORIDA MAINLAND. SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN
AT THIS TIME MAINLY DUE A THIN VEIL OF CIRRUS DECKS THAT WERE THE
REMNANTS OF EARLIER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. KBYX RADAR SHOWS A MOSTLY
CLEAR SCAN IN OUR SERVICE AREA WITH ONLY A FEW LIGHT PATCHES OF RAIN
OVER OUR NORTHERN GULF ZONES. AFTER AN ROBUST EARLY MORNING
SURGE...SOUTHERLY WINDS RAPIDLY WEAKENED ACROSS THE AREA. COASTAL
STATIONS ARE REPORTING NEAR 15 KNOT WINDS IN MOST LOCATIONS...AND
ISLAND STATIONS ARE 5 TO 10 MPH. MORNING SOUNDING CONTINUED THE TREND
OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTENING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS AND PWAT VALUES
ROSE TO 2.16 INCHES. LAUNCH TIME WAS IN THE MIDST OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURGE...SO LOW LEVEL WINDS WERE BRISK AND SOUTHERLY.

.SHORT TERM...
MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WERE VISIBLE ON THE MORNING
SOUNDING...BUT WITH THE MAIN AREA OF DYNAMIC FORCING CONTINUING TO
PULL NORTH OF THE SERVICE AREA... EXPECT THAT THE MAIN TRIGGER FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE BOUNDARY BOUNDARY COLLISIONS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WITH GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE TODAY TIME PERIOD. EXPECT THAT CUBAN SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL
INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT FORMATION OF THESE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES...AND
THIS TREND IS ALREADY INDICATED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE TO OUR SOUTH.
WITH NO CONVECTIVE TRIGGERS UPSTREAM AND WITH CLOUD LINES UNLIKELY IN
A SOUTHERLY FLOW...EXPECT THAT ISOLATED POPS WILL BEST REPRESENT THE
CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. UPDATED PUBLIC
WIND...WEATHER...AND SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT THESE CHANGES FOR THE DAY.
NO OTHER CHANGES NECESSARY BEYOND THE FIRST PERIOD AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
AND EARLY MORNING UPDATE TO THE FORECAST WAS NECESSARY TO ACCOUNT FOR
A MORE PROLONGED THAN EXPECTED SURGE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA. ON ACCOUNT OF THIS UPDATE...THE CHANGES IN THE 1030 UPDATE WILL
LIKELY BE MINIMAL. SEAS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND EXPOSED
SOUTHEASTERN GULF ZONES WILL LIKELY REMAIN AGITATED FOR A PERIOD OF
TIME THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THIS SURGE...BUT SLACKENING
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY ALLOW SEAS TO FALL TO TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...
UNTIL 00Z/29TH...VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON TERMINALS WITH ANY LOW CLOUD BASES EXPECTED NEAR 025.
MOSTLY SOUTH WINDS OF LESS THAN 10 KNOTS WILL TURN SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THIS EVENING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1881...THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST REACHED 95 DEGREES. THIS IS A LONG-STANDING
DAILY HIGH RECORD TEMPERATURE FOR AUGUST 28 IN KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE
RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........MSB
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....APA
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 281148
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
748 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.AVIATION...
UNTIL 00Z/29TH...VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON TERMINALS WITH LOW CLOUD BASES NEAR 025. MOSTLY SOUTH WINDS
OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL
TURN SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 15 KNOTS BY LATE
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

&&

$$

AVIATION...APA

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 281148
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
748 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.AVIATION...
UNTIL 00Z/29TH...VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON TERMINALS WITH LOW CLOUD BASES NEAR 025. MOSTLY SOUTH WINDS
OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL
TURN SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 15 KNOTS BY LATE
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

&&

$$

AVIATION...APA

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 280757
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
357 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
WINDS ARE RELAXING QUITE A BIT AS SHOWERS WANE TONIGHT. THE KBYX
RADAR SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE 250 MILE SCAN MOVING
GENERALLY NORTH. SATELLITE INVESTIGATION AND A RECENT ASCAT PASS
NEARBY EXPOSE BROAD CYCLONIC CURVATURE WEST OF CUBA WHICH...ALONG
WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE OVER CUBA...MAY HAVE ADDED TO THE LIFTING OVER
THE KEYS AREA. AN INVERTED TROUGH IS PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF CUBA
TONIGHT AND MAY BE THE DOMINANT FACTOR IN THE FORECAST.

.FORECAST...
THE INVERTED TROUGH SOUTH OF CUBA IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CHANCE POPS
IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL HAVE SLIGHTLY BETTER LIFTING AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRACK
WESTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS HURRICANE CRISTOBAL MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA PLACING THE KEYS ALONG ITS SOUTHERN
EDGE. WINDS WILL INCREASE...PROVIDING MORE FAVORABLE CONVERGENT FLOW
FOR DEVELOPING SHOWERS...AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY. A
SECOND WEAK TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN BY FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH DRIER AIR IN ITS WAKE. BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE MOISTURE RETURNS TO
THE AREA...WITH WEAKER EASTERLY WINDS PROVIDING A BETTER WIND PROFILE
WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE A MORE SEASONAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN NORTH OF THE KEYS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN FRESHENING EASTERLY WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN A BIT SUNDAY BECOMING MODERATE
EASTERLIES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AND GRADUALLY DECREASING TO LIGHT
TO MODERATE BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS THROUGH
THIS MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.
HAVE PUT A TEMPO FOR SHOWERS AT BOTH LOCATIONS BEGINNING AT 19Z TO
COVER THAT POSSIBILITY. A SOUTHERLY BREEZE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS
EXTENDING TO 5000 FEET THROUGH SUNRISE WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1881...THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST REACHED 95 DEGREES. THIS IS A LONG-STANDING
DAILY HIGH RECORD TEMPERATURE FOR AUGUST 28 IN KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE
RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....04

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 280757
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
357 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
WINDS ARE RELAXING QUITE A BIT AS SHOWERS WANE TONIGHT. THE KBYX
RADAR SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE 250 MILE SCAN MOVING
GENERALLY NORTH. SATELLITE INVESTIGATION AND A RECENT ASCAT PASS
NEARBY EXPOSE BROAD CYCLONIC CURVATURE WEST OF CUBA WHICH...ALONG
WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE OVER CUBA...MAY HAVE ADDED TO THE LIFTING OVER
THE KEYS AREA. AN INVERTED TROUGH IS PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF CUBA
TONIGHT AND MAY BE THE DOMINANT FACTOR IN THE FORECAST.

.FORECAST...
THE INVERTED TROUGH SOUTH OF CUBA IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CHANCE POPS
IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL HAVE SLIGHTLY BETTER LIFTING AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRACK
WESTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS HURRICANE CRISTOBAL MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA PLACING THE KEYS ALONG ITS SOUTHERN
EDGE. WINDS WILL INCREASE...PROVIDING MORE FAVORABLE CONVERGENT FLOW
FOR DEVELOPING SHOWERS...AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY. A
SECOND WEAK TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN BY FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH DRIER AIR IN ITS WAKE. BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE MOISTURE RETURNS TO
THE AREA...WITH WEAKER EASTERLY WINDS PROVIDING A BETTER WIND PROFILE
WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE A MORE SEASONAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN NORTH OF THE KEYS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN FRESHENING EASTERLY WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN A BIT SUNDAY BECOMING MODERATE
EASTERLIES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AND GRADUALLY DECREASING TO LIGHT
TO MODERATE BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS THROUGH
THIS MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.
HAVE PUT A TEMPO FOR SHOWERS AT BOTH LOCATIONS BEGINNING AT 19Z TO
COVER THAT POSSIBILITY. A SOUTHERLY BREEZE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS
EXTENDING TO 5000 FEET THROUGH SUNRISE WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1881...THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST REACHED 95 DEGREES. THIS IS A LONG-STANDING
DAILY HIGH RECORD TEMPERATURE FOR AUGUST 28 IN KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE
RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....04

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 280242
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1042 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
A LOW LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IS SLOWLY
SWINGING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SERVICE AREA...BRINGING ENHANCED CUBAN
CONVECTION IN TOW. SURFACE WINDS ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON A
STATION`S RELATIVE POSITION IN REGARDS TO THIS TROUGH...AND NEAR
ISLAND OBSERVING STATIONS ARE STARTING TO BE AFFECTED BY LOCALIZED
CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES ARE STAYING WARM IN THE MID 80S AND DEW
POINTS REMAIN BALMY IN THE MID 70S. ISLAND WINDS ARE 10 TO 15 MPH AND
COASTAL OBSERVING STATIONS RANGE FROM SOUTH NEAR 10 KNOTS SOUTH OF
THE UPPER KEYS TO EAST NEAR 20 KNOTS IN PORTIONS OF THE GULF WATERS.
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND AN EXTENSIVE BAND OF SHOWERS IS MAINLY
STRETCHING BETWEEN 10 AND 30 MILES SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. EVENING
SOUNDING SHOWED A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
LOW LEVELS. NEAR SURFACE WINDS WERE AROUND 20 KNOTS OUT OF THE
EAST...LIKELY LEADING TO INCREASED GUSTINESS ACROSS ALL OBSERVING
STATIONS.

.SHORT TERM...
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS JUSTIFIED AN EARLY UPDATE TO BOTH COASTAL AND
PUBLIC FORECASTS EARLIER IN THIS SHIFT. RAINFALL COVERAGE AT THE TIME
OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA JUSTIFIED A LIKELY POP VALUE OF 60
PERCENT. THE CURRENT TRAJECTORY OF THE CORRESPONDING ROBUST OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES...AS WELL AS THE EXPECTED CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS TONIGHT WERE BOTH ENCOURAGING FACTORS FOR THE UPDATE TO LIKELY
POPS ACROSS ALL ISLAND LOCATIONS AND ATLANTIC WATERS. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN THE RAIN CHANCES NORTH OF THE ISLANDS... KEPT HIGH END
CHANCES POPS (50) IN FOR OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THAT THE MOTION OF SHOWERS
AND TSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...AND
MORE GUSTY FLOW WILL KEEP THE LOW LEVELS MORE TURBULENT AS A DETERRENT
FOR ORGANIZED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY
BEFORE THESE SHOWERS ARRIVE ACROSS THE ISLANDS...BUT THEN SHOULD
GRADUALLY ABATE ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN TONIGHT ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
THE TROUGH CORE.

&&

.MARINE...
MOST OF THE MARINE ZONES REMAINED ON THE CUSP OF CAUTIONARY WORDING
WIND SPEEDS THIS EVENING...BUT IN THE PAST FEW HOURS THE EASTERN
ZONES HAVE SHOWN THE BEGINNINGS OF A WEAKENING TREND...EXPECT THAT
WESTERN ZONES WILL MAINTAIN 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS EARLY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. THEREAFTER WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE YET GUSTY NEAR
SHOWERS...THEN FINALLY DECREASE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS ACROSS MOST
NEARSHORE WATERS AND GULF ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR OR OCCASIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS. IN
THE WAKE OF THESE SHOWERS...LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD TAKE
HOLD...AND THEN HOLD ON THROUGH THE AT LEAST THE MID MORNING HOURS.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........MSB
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....DEVANAS
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 280242
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1042 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
A LOW LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IS SLOWLY
SWINGING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SERVICE AREA...BRINGING ENHANCED CUBAN
CONVECTION IN TOW. SURFACE WINDS ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON A
STATION`S RELATIVE POSITION IN REGARDS TO THIS TROUGH...AND NEAR
ISLAND OBSERVING STATIONS ARE STARTING TO BE AFFECTED BY LOCALIZED
CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES ARE STAYING WARM IN THE MID 80S AND DEW
POINTS REMAIN BALMY IN THE MID 70S. ISLAND WINDS ARE 10 TO 15 MPH AND
COASTAL OBSERVING STATIONS RANGE FROM SOUTH NEAR 10 KNOTS SOUTH OF
THE UPPER KEYS TO EAST NEAR 20 KNOTS IN PORTIONS OF THE GULF WATERS.
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND AN EXTENSIVE BAND OF SHOWERS IS MAINLY
STRETCHING BETWEEN 10 AND 30 MILES SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. EVENING
SOUNDING SHOWED A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
LOW LEVELS. NEAR SURFACE WINDS WERE AROUND 20 KNOTS OUT OF THE
EAST...LIKELY LEADING TO INCREASED GUSTINESS ACROSS ALL OBSERVING
STATIONS.

.SHORT TERM...
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS JUSTIFIED AN EARLY UPDATE TO BOTH COASTAL AND
PUBLIC FORECASTS EARLIER IN THIS SHIFT. RAINFALL COVERAGE AT THE TIME
OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA JUSTIFIED A LIKELY POP VALUE OF 60
PERCENT. THE CURRENT TRAJECTORY OF THE CORRESPONDING ROBUST OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES...AS WELL AS THE EXPECTED CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS TONIGHT WERE BOTH ENCOURAGING FACTORS FOR THE UPDATE TO LIKELY
POPS ACROSS ALL ISLAND LOCATIONS AND ATLANTIC WATERS. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN THE RAIN CHANCES NORTH OF THE ISLANDS... KEPT HIGH END
CHANCES POPS (50) IN FOR OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THAT THE MOTION OF SHOWERS
AND TSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...AND
MORE GUSTY FLOW WILL KEEP THE LOW LEVELS MORE TURBULENT AS A DETERRENT
FOR ORGANIZED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY
BEFORE THESE SHOWERS ARRIVE ACROSS THE ISLANDS...BUT THEN SHOULD
GRADUALLY ABATE ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN TONIGHT ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
THE TROUGH CORE.

&&

.MARINE...
MOST OF THE MARINE ZONES REMAINED ON THE CUSP OF CAUTIONARY WORDING
WIND SPEEDS THIS EVENING...BUT IN THE PAST FEW HOURS THE EASTERN
ZONES HAVE SHOWN THE BEGINNINGS OF A WEAKENING TREND...EXPECT THAT
WESTERN ZONES WILL MAINTAIN 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS EARLY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. THEREAFTER WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE YET GUSTY NEAR
SHOWERS...THEN FINALLY DECREASE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS ACROSS MOST
NEARSHORE WATERS AND GULF ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR OR OCCASIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS. IN
THE WAKE OF THESE SHOWERS...LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD TAKE
HOLD...AND THEN HOLD ON THROUGH THE AT LEAST THE MID MORNING HOURS.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........MSB
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....DEVANAS
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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