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000
FXUS62 KKEY 310747
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
250 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES. SKIES OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN
ARE MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDS OVER LAND ARE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15
MPH. C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE NORTH TO NORTHEAST NEAR 15
KNOTS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS THIS MORNING. AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...BEFORE PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN SUNDAY. AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
EXTEND ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETREAT EASTWARD MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES IN THE SHORT
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST SHOULD BE HIGHEST SUNDAY DUE TO
MODERATE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY PASS THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS MONDAY NIGHT.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC UNITED STATES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY.
THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD PROGRESS EASTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA THURSDAY NIGHT. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY PASS THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS FRIDAY. RAIN
CHANCES IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST SHOULD BE HIGHEST
WELL AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONGER COLD FRONT
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ON ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS
TODAY DUE TO SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS SUNDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF HAWK CHANNEL SUNDAY. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE
FLORIDA STRAITS SUNDAY NIGHT. NO ADVISORIES EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
AT LEAST TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST INTL AND MARATHON
FLA KEYS AIRPORT TERMINALS TODAY AND TONIGHT. FOR THE SFC TO 2 KFT
AGL...WINDS WILL AVG FROM 010-030 DEG AROUND 10 KTS VEER TO 040-050
DEG BY 10Z AND INCR TO 13 TO 15 KTS WITH GSTS NR 20 KTS...THEN VEER
TO 090 DEG AFT 16Z AND INCR TO 16 TO 18 KTS WITH GSTS BETWN 23 AND
27 KTS. EXPECT SCT CLOUDS AT FL020-030 AND FL040-050 RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1885...1.77 INCHES
OF RAIN FELL IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR MAXIMUM
RAINFALL MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON JANUARY 31ST...A RECORD WHICH STILL
STANDS 130 YEARS LATER. RAINFALL RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO
1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  73 66 76 71 / 05 10 20 10
MARATHON  73 66 76 71 / 05 10 20 10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION.............................FUTTERMAN

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 310314
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1014 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR AT THIS HOUR WITH THIN CI REMAINING NORTH OF
THE KEYS. WINDS ARE OSCILLATING IN SPEED LOCALLY...BUT UPSTREAM
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS ADJACENT TO THE PENINSULA WE SEE FRESH
TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG BREEZES SLIDING SOUTHWARD. TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE MID 60S ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN.

THE LATE EVENING LOCAL SOUNDING SHOWS THE NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE
DEEPENED THROUGH AT LEAST 10000 FEET AND ACCELERATED THROUGH MUCH OF
THAT DEPTH OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE FRONT ACROSS THE PENINSULA IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS LATER IN THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH...IF ANYTHING...IN THE
WAY OF PRECIPITATION AS THIS PASSES THROUGH. IN FACT...NOT A
SIGNIFICANT THERMAL MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED LOCALLY.
WE DO EXPECT NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS TO ACCELERATE ALL THE WAY TO THE
SURFACE LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE AFTERNOON ZONE FORECAST
HAS THE EXPECTED CONDITIONS COVERED WELL. NO UPDATE IS PLANNED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DAMPEN AND AMPLIFY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
AHEAD OF A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE...EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER IN THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MAY BE ADVERTISING CONDITIONS A BIT QUICKLY AND
POSSIBLY ERRING ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION...BUT PREFERRED TO RAISE A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINE FOR ALL WATERS SURROUNDING THE FLORIDA
KEYS AS WINDS ACCELERATE FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST LATE IN THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS DECISION WAS HEAVILY BASED ON THE DEPICTION OF
THE HRRR SOLUTIONS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. AGAIN...CONDITIONS MAY BE
CLOSER TO SUNRISE...BUT THE CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING. FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG BREEZES WILL TURN MORE TO THE
EAST THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. SO...RECREATIONAL BOATING CONDITIONS
WILL CERTAINLY NOT BE IDEAL ON ANY OF THE WATERS SURROUNDING THE
FLORIDA KEYS AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
...31/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...TWO SIGNIFICANT WIND CHANGES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THE FIRST WILL BE A MODERATE INCREASE IN
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND DAYBREAK AS A RESULT OF A DRY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PASSING THE KEYS. THE SECOND WILL BE A RESULT OF A BUILDING
HIGH ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...AND WILL BRING MORE GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN AFTER MID MORNING AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. OTHER THAN WIND SHIFTS...NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...AS VFR SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........04
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....MSB
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 310314
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1014 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR AT THIS HOUR WITH THIN CI REMAINING NORTH OF
THE KEYS. WINDS ARE OSCILLATING IN SPEED LOCALLY...BUT UPSTREAM
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS ADJACENT TO THE PENINSULA WE SEE FRESH
TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG BREEZES SLIDING SOUTHWARD. TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE MID 60S ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN.

THE LATE EVENING LOCAL SOUNDING SHOWS THE NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE
DEEPENED THROUGH AT LEAST 10000 FEET AND ACCELERATED THROUGH MUCH OF
THAT DEPTH OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE FRONT ACROSS THE PENINSULA IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS LATER IN THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH...IF ANYTHING...IN THE
WAY OF PRECIPITATION AS THIS PASSES THROUGH. IN FACT...NOT A
SIGNIFICANT THERMAL MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED LOCALLY.
WE DO EXPECT NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS TO ACCELERATE ALL THE WAY TO THE
SURFACE LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE AFTERNOON ZONE FORECAST
HAS THE EXPECTED CONDITIONS COVERED WELL. NO UPDATE IS PLANNED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DAMPEN AND AMPLIFY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
AHEAD OF A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE...EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER IN THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MAY BE ADVERTISING CONDITIONS A BIT QUICKLY AND
POSSIBLY ERRING ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION...BUT PREFERRED TO RAISE A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINE FOR ALL WATERS SURROUNDING THE FLORIDA
KEYS AS WINDS ACCELERATE FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST LATE IN THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS DECISION WAS HEAVILY BASED ON THE DEPICTION OF
THE HRRR SOLUTIONS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. AGAIN...CONDITIONS MAY BE
CLOSER TO SUNRISE...BUT THE CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING. FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG BREEZES WILL TURN MORE TO THE
EAST THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. SO...RECREATIONAL BOATING CONDITIONS
WILL CERTAINLY NOT BE IDEAL ON ANY OF THE WATERS SURROUNDING THE
FLORIDA KEYS AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
...31/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...TWO SIGNIFICANT WIND CHANGES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THE FIRST WILL BE A MODERATE INCREASE IN
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND DAYBREAK AS A RESULT OF A DRY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PASSING THE KEYS. THE SECOND WILL BE A RESULT OF A BUILDING
HIGH ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...AND WILL BRING MORE GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN AFTER MID MORNING AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. OTHER THAN WIND SHIFTS...NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...AS VFR SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........04
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....MSB
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 301946
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
246 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - A ~1035 MB HIGH PRESSURE CELL IS BUILDING EASTWARD INTO
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...WHILE THE LAST REMNANTS OF A LOW TROUGH
DISSIPATES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. SURFACE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF
THE NORTH. THIS TRAJECTORY IS KEEPING TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS
DOWN...WITH HIGHS NEAR 70...AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S. SKIES
HAVE BEEN SUNNY WITH ONLY A FEW SHREDS OF CIRRUS PASSING RAPIDLY
EASTWARD.

FORECAST - THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY
MORNING...AND CONTINUE TO DRIVE SOUTHEASTWARDS INTO OVER THE WEEKEND.
AS A RESULT...WINDS WILL INCREASE VERY LATE TONIGHT OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST...BECOMING BREEZY. ANOTHER SUBTLE SHOT OF COOLER AIR SHOULD
KEEP TEMPERATURES A TOUCH BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE UPPER 60S. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SLIM TO
NONE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE TO TREND SHARPLY UPWARDS ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...AS THE HIGH SHIFTS MORE
EAST OF OUR AREA...DIRECTING OUR WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. WARM
MOIST ADVECTION ALONG WITH MARITIME CLOUD LINES JUSTIFIES A SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

WINDS WILL DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC...AND A LOW MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AS THAT LOW SHIFTS OUT INTO THE
ATLANTIC...ANOTHER HIGH CELL WILL FOLLOW EASTWARD BEHIND IT. THE
REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHED DOWN INTO THE KEYS
AREA...HEADING INTO MID WEEK. AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN APPEARS
JUSTIFIED. VERY LITTLE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL REACH OUR AREA...AND
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

AFTER SURGING OUT OF THE EAST TO NEAR BREEZY MID WEEK...WINDS WILL
RELAX SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT INTO THE
ATLANTIC AND A LOW DEEPENS WILL MIGRATING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
GULF OF MEXICO. WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE DUE TO
THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...WEAKENING OUT OF THE SOUTH. WITH THAT
SAID...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A GOOD COLD FRONT WILL MAKE IT
THROUGH THE KEYS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH WILL ACCELERATE OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST TOWARDS DAWN AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF KEYS WATERS FROM EARLY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
AS THIS HIGH CONTINUES TO MIGRATE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC AND
WINDS GRADUALLY VEER EASTERLY. WINDS WILL COLLAPSE SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD AND A LOW MOVES INTO THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PICK UP AGAIN AS YET ANOTHER
HIGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND ATLANTIC...AND A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVAILING AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY BETWEEN
8 TO 12 KNOTS FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST. THEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE EARLY MORNING AND RANGE BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 301541
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1041 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS DESCENDING SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...AND IN THE PROCESS OF WASHING
OUT THE WEAK TAIL END OF A TROUGH STRETCHING ACROSS FLORIDA. LOCAL
WINDS ARE LIGHT TO GENTLE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST WITH TEMPERATURES
ALREADY UP NEAR 70 DEGREES. DEW POINTS REMAIN DOWN IN THE UPPER 60S.
NEARLY ALL CLOUD COVER IS LOCATED SOUTH AND EAST OF A CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM EAST OF THE UPPER KEYS...INTO THE OUTER
STRAITS OF THE LOWER KEYS.

SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON) - SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TREND MORE
NORTHERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SOUTH FLORIDA WARMS...AND THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WEAK TROUGH DISSIPATES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE NIL DUE TO DRY STABLE CONDITIONS. THE ONGOING
FORECAST IS ON TRACK...AND NO UPDATE IS PLANNED.

&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES WILL GRADUALLY BACK THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS A WEAK TROUGH WASHES OUT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. NO
CAUTIONS WILL BE IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE STILL ON TAP TO
SURGE SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT AS A STRONG HIGH MOVES TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. CAUTIONS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT FOR INCREASING WINDS. A FEW HOURS OF NEAR 20
KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGES MADE IN THE MORNING
MARINE UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY BETWEEN 8 TO 12 KNOTS FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST.
LATER TONIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND RANGE BETWEEN 15
AND 20 KNOTS.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 301541
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1041 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS DESCENDING SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...AND IN THE PROCESS OF WASHING
OUT THE WEAK TAIL END OF A TROUGH STRETCHING ACROSS FLORIDA. LOCAL
WINDS ARE LIGHT TO GENTLE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST WITH TEMPERATURES
ALREADY UP NEAR 70 DEGREES. DEW POINTS REMAIN DOWN IN THE UPPER 60S.
NEARLY ALL CLOUD COVER IS LOCATED SOUTH AND EAST OF A CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM EAST OF THE UPPER KEYS...INTO THE OUTER
STRAITS OF THE LOWER KEYS.

SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON) - SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TREND MORE
NORTHERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SOUTH FLORIDA WARMS...AND THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WEAK TROUGH DISSIPATES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE NIL DUE TO DRY STABLE CONDITIONS. THE ONGOING
FORECAST IS ON TRACK...AND NO UPDATE IS PLANNED.

&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES WILL GRADUALLY BACK THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS A WEAK TROUGH WASHES OUT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. NO
CAUTIONS WILL BE IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE STILL ON TAP TO
SURGE SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT AS A STRONG HIGH MOVES TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. CAUTIONS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT FOR INCREASING WINDS. A FEW HOURS OF NEAR 20
KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGES MADE IN THE MORNING
MARINE UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY BETWEEN 8 TO 12 KNOTS FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST.
LATER TONIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND RANGE BETWEEN 15
AND 20 KNOTS.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 301120
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
620 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SUSTAINED NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS FROM JUST OFF THE
SURFACE TO ABOUT 3000 FEET WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS TONIGHT.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...BS

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 301120
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
620 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SUSTAINED NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS FROM JUST OFF THE
SURFACE TO ABOUT 3000 FEET WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS TONIGHT.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...BS

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 300857
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
357 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...700-200 MB...LATEST IR
IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH AVAILABLE MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF 300
AM ILLUSTRATE THE NEXT MIDDLE LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER OHIO IS CARVING
OUT A TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES DOWN TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE
FLOW UPSTREAM BECOMES LARGELY ANTICYCLONIC OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN CONUS...BUT MID AND UPPER FLOW IS CYCLONIC OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE KEYS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEVELOPING TROUGH.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS...SURFACE TO 700
MB...THE AXIS OF A NEAR 1035 TO 1037 MB SURFACE RIDGING IS LOCATED
FROM MINNESOTA TO OKLAHOMA. THE LEADING COLD FRONT AHEAD OF THIS
AIRMASS IS ORIENTED FROM MONTREAL TO OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS. CLOSER
TO THE KEYS...A 1020-1023 MB SURFACE RIDGE IS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA. AS A RESULT...LAST EVENINGS 00Z SOUNDING AT KEY WEST
ILLUSTRATED A GENTLE NORTHEAST FLOW FROM OFF THE SURFACE TO ABOUT
500 FEET AGL...BECOMING MODERATE TO FRESH UP TO ABOUT 850 MB. A 3
DEGREE C INVERSION WAS LOCATED IN THE 860 TO 835 MB LAYER. THE
OVERALL COLUMN REMAINED MODERATELY DRY WITH COLUMNAR PWAT AT 0.61
INCHES.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 300 AM...SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS
THE KEYS ISLAND CHAIN AND SURROUNDING WATERS OWING TO
STRATOCUMULUS...BUT KEY WEST AND MIAMI RADAR DO NOT DETECT ECHOS.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLAND ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S
WITH DEWPOINTS CREEPING UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. C-MAN STATIONS
ALONG THE FLORIDA REEF ARE REGISTERING 10 METER NORTHEAST NEAR 15
KNOTS AND 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN FLORIDA BAY AND AT SMITH SHOAL LIGHT.

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THRU TUESDAY NIGHT...DEVELOPING PROGRESSIVE MID
AND UPPER PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR THE COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER
TO LAST TODAY AND TOMORROW...BUT INCREASING WARMTH WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NORMAL ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY...AKA
GROUNDHOG DAY...AND MONDAY NIGHT. LATEST AVAILABLE ECMWF AND GFS
MODEL RUNS INDICATE THAT THE DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES
DOWN TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY FROM EASTERN CANADA TO JUST EAST OF THE NORTHEASTERN
STATES...WITH THE MIDDLE LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT FARTHER
EAST THEN INDICATED EAST OF NEW ENGLAND.

A SLOWLY MOVING YET SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY...DEEPENING INTO THE LOW 980 MILLIBARS. THIS
FEATURE WILL WORK IN COMBINATION/TANDEM WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
1035 MB PLUS SURFACE RIDGE NOW OVER THE PLAINS. THIS RIDGE WILL REACH
THE OHIO VALLEY BY LATE TODAY AND THEN SET UP SHOP OVER THE CAROLINA
PIEDMONT DURING SATURDAY...RESULTING IN THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER DRY
COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY...AND
THEN THROUGH THE KEYS TONIGHT. BEHIND IT...WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT WIND
SURGE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS THE KEYS. THE MAIN STRONG
1030 MB RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY AS OUR WINDS
VEER...BUT WILL LET DOWN MARKEDLY AND VEER TO BETWEEN SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTH BY SUNDAY NIGHT. SO BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN A FEW HOURS
BEFORE SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING...AND CONTINUE THROUGH TO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

ALTHOUGH MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ONLY ILLUSTRATE PWAT BELOW 1.00
INCHES SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY...STRONG FLUX CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE AIR
AND SEA BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FAST MOVING LOW
TOPPED SHOWERS THRU THE PERIOD...SO WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED SHOWERS IN
THE GRIDS FOR THESE THREE PERIODS.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...BEFORE THE SURGE TONIGHT...GENTLE NORTH
WINDS WILL REMAIN BACKED TO NORTH ACROSS THE RELATIVELY COOLER
SHALLOW WATERS NORTH OF THE KEYS ISLAND CHAIN...WHICH WILL KEEP HI
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AGAIN TODAY AND NORTHEAST WINDS TOMORROW
WILL NOT ALLOW HIGHS ABOVE THE LOWER TO MID 70S...BUT AS THE WINDS
BECOME MORE EAST ON SUNDAY HIGHS AND LOWS WILL REACH NEAR
NORMAL...MID 70S AND MID 60S RESPECTIVELY.

A BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...AS WEEK RIDGING PUSHES NEAR THE KEYS AND LITTLE MOISTURE
REMAINS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. BUT LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTH WINDS AND
INCREASING HUMIDITY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S MONDAY
AND LOWS NEAR 70 SUNDAY NIGHT.

EXTENDED...MONDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...MID LATITUDINAL DISTURBANCES
WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE KEYS MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH SURFACE RIDGING SETTING UP JUST NORTH OF THE KEYS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. BUT ZONAL FLOW WILL BREAK DOWN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS MODELS HINT AT DEVELOPMENT OF A DECENT MID AND UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET OVER NORTHERN OLD
MEXICO AND OR TEXAS BY TUESDAY...MIGRATING ACROSS THE GULF TOWARDS
FLORIDA WEDNESDAY THRU THURSDAY...AS AT LEAST A PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS. A SURFACE FEATURE ASSOCIATED THIS IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP
EAST OF TEXAS ON MONDAY...THEN ONLY MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND
REACHING NORTH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND OFFSHORE THURSDAY. AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM
1.00-1.50 INCHES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THEN ABOVE 1.50 INCHES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HENCE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN THE GRIDS FOR
MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH EVEN LOW CHANCES MAINTAINED IN
THE GRIDS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY GIVEN ASSOCIATED
DESTABILIZATION DUE TO COOLING MID LEVELS. NUMERICAL MODELS ALSO
SUGGEST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER BUT PRUDENCE DICTATES A FEW MORE
CYCLES BEFORE INSERTION OF THIS THREAT FOR THESE LATER PERIODS.

&&

.MARINE...GENTLE NORTH WINDS EXPECTED TODAY WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE
NORTH WINDS THIS EVENING...SO NO HEADLINES OR ADVISORIES ARE
EXPECTED. THEN..GIVEN STRONG MSLP GRADIENT AND AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
ACROSS THE MARINE DISTRICT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEEMS PROBABLE
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE HAWK CHANNEL...DEEPER
OFFSHORE GULF WATERS 20 TO 60 NM WEST OF MAINLAND MONROE...AND THE
FLORIDA STRAITS OUT 60 NM FROM THE REEF FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY
TORTUGAS. SMALL CRAFT WILL STILL LIKELY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS THE COOLER AND SHALLOWER FLORIDA BAY AND NEARSHORE GULF
WATERS INSIDE THE FIVE FATHOM LINE NORTH OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
KEYS. A CAUTIONARY HEADLINE IS LIKELY FOR THE DEEPER WATERS AGAIN
DURING SUNDAY...BUT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COOLER SHALLOW WATERS. THEN
WINDS WINDS SEAS WILL LET DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT...AND NO HEADLINES OR
ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH THROUGH AT
LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CEILINGS...BASED AT AROUND 4500
FEET...SHOULD GRADUALLY ERODE AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING. SUSTAINED
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE
TO ABOUT 5000 FEET WILL BACK TO NORTH THIS MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...1940...THE LOW
TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST WAS 47 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD
FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON JANUARY 30TH...A
RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 75 YEARS LATER. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY
WEST WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  74  64  74  67 / -  -  20 10
MARATHON  73  64  74  67 / -  -  20 10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BS

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 300857
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
357 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...700-200 MB...LATEST IR
IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH AVAILABLE MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF 300
AM ILLUSTRATE THE NEXT MIDDLE LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER OHIO IS CARVING
OUT A TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES DOWN TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE
FLOW UPSTREAM BECOMES LARGELY ANTICYCLONIC OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN CONUS...BUT MID AND UPPER FLOW IS CYCLONIC OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE KEYS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEVELOPING TROUGH.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS...SURFACE TO 700
MB...THE AXIS OF A NEAR 1035 TO 1037 MB SURFACE RIDGING IS LOCATED
FROM MINNESOTA TO OKLAHOMA. THE LEADING COLD FRONT AHEAD OF THIS
AIRMASS IS ORIENTED FROM MONTREAL TO OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS. CLOSER
TO THE KEYS...A 1020-1023 MB SURFACE RIDGE IS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA. AS A RESULT...LAST EVENINGS 00Z SOUNDING AT KEY WEST
ILLUSTRATED A GENTLE NORTHEAST FLOW FROM OFF THE SURFACE TO ABOUT
500 FEET AGL...BECOMING MODERATE TO FRESH UP TO ABOUT 850 MB. A 3
DEGREE C INVERSION WAS LOCATED IN THE 860 TO 835 MB LAYER. THE
OVERALL COLUMN REMAINED MODERATELY DRY WITH COLUMNAR PWAT AT 0.61
INCHES.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 300 AM...SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS
THE KEYS ISLAND CHAIN AND SURROUNDING WATERS OWING TO
STRATOCUMULUS...BUT KEY WEST AND MIAMI RADAR DO NOT DETECT ECHOS.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLAND ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S
WITH DEWPOINTS CREEPING UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. C-MAN STATIONS
ALONG THE FLORIDA REEF ARE REGISTERING 10 METER NORTHEAST NEAR 15
KNOTS AND 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN FLORIDA BAY AND AT SMITH SHOAL LIGHT.

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THRU TUESDAY NIGHT...DEVELOPING PROGRESSIVE MID
AND UPPER PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR THE COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER
TO LAST TODAY AND TOMORROW...BUT INCREASING WARMTH WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NORMAL ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY...AKA
GROUNDHOG DAY...AND MONDAY NIGHT. LATEST AVAILABLE ECMWF AND GFS
MODEL RUNS INDICATE THAT THE DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES
DOWN TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY FROM EASTERN CANADA TO JUST EAST OF THE NORTHEASTERN
STATES...WITH THE MIDDLE LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT FARTHER
EAST THEN INDICATED EAST OF NEW ENGLAND.

A SLOWLY MOVING YET SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY...DEEPENING INTO THE LOW 980 MILLIBARS. THIS
FEATURE WILL WORK IN COMBINATION/TANDEM WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
1035 MB PLUS SURFACE RIDGE NOW OVER THE PLAINS. THIS RIDGE WILL REACH
THE OHIO VALLEY BY LATE TODAY AND THEN SET UP SHOP OVER THE CAROLINA
PIEDMONT DURING SATURDAY...RESULTING IN THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER DRY
COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY...AND
THEN THROUGH THE KEYS TONIGHT. BEHIND IT...WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT WIND
SURGE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS THE KEYS. THE MAIN STRONG
1030 MB RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY AS OUR WINDS
VEER...BUT WILL LET DOWN MARKEDLY AND VEER TO BETWEEN SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTH BY SUNDAY NIGHT. SO BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN A FEW HOURS
BEFORE SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING...AND CONTINUE THROUGH TO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

ALTHOUGH MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ONLY ILLUSTRATE PWAT BELOW 1.00
INCHES SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY...STRONG FLUX CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE AIR
AND SEA BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FAST MOVING LOW
TOPPED SHOWERS THRU THE PERIOD...SO WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED SHOWERS IN
THE GRIDS FOR THESE THREE PERIODS.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...BEFORE THE SURGE TONIGHT...GENTLE NORTH
WINDS WILL REMAIN BACKED TO NORTH ACROSS THE RELATIVELY COOLER
SHALLOW WATERS NORTH OF THE KEYS ISLAND CHAIN...WHICH WILL KEEP HI
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AGAIN TODAY AND NORTHEAST WINDS TOMORROW
WILL NOT ALLOW HIGHS ABOVE THE LOWER TO MID 70S...BUT AS THE WINDS
BECOME MORE EAST ON SUNDAY HIGHS AND LOWS WILL REACH NEAR
NORMAL...MID 70S AND MID 60S RESPECTIVELY.

A BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...AS WEEK RIDGING PUSHES NEAR THE KEYS AND LITTLE MOISTURE
REMAINS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. BUT LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTH WINDS AND
INCREASING HUMIDITY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S MONDAY
AND LOWS NEAR 70 SUNDAY NIGHT.

EXTENDED...MONDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...MID LATITUDINAL DISTURBANCES
WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE KEYS MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH SURFACE RIDGING SETTING UP JUST NORTH OF THE KEYS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. BUT ZONAL FLOW WILL BREAK DOWN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS MODELS HINT AT DEVELOPMENT OF A DECENT MID AND UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET OVER NORTHERN OLD
MEXICO AND OR TEXAS BY TUESDAY...MIGRATING ACROSS THE GULF TOWARDS
FLORIDA WEDNESDAY THRU THURSDAY...AS AT LEAST A PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS. A SURFACE FEATURE ASSOCIATED THIS IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP
EAST OF TEXAS ON MONDAY...THEN ONLY MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND
REACHING NORTH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND OFFSHORE THURSDAY. AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM
1.00-1.50 INCHES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THEN ABOVE 1.50 INCHES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HENCE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN THE GRIDS FOR
MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH EVEN LOW CHANCES MAINTAINED IN
THE GRIDS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY GIVEN ASSOCIATED
DESTABILIZATION DUE TO COOLING MID LEVELS. NUMERICAL MODELS ALSO
SUGGEST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER BUT PRUDENCE DICTATES A FEW MORE
CYCLES BEFORE INSERTION OF THIS THREAT FOR THESE LATER PERIODS.

&&

.MARINE...GENTLE NORTH WINDS EXPECTED TODAY WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE
NORTH WINDS THIS EVENING...SO NO HEADLINES OR ADVISORIES ARE
EXPECTED. THEN..GIVEN STRONG MSLP GRADIENT AND AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
ACROSS THE MARINE DISTRICT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEEMS PROBABLE
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE HAWK CHANNEL...DEEPER
OFFSHORE GULF WATERS 20 TO 60 NM WEST OF MAINLAND MONROE...AND THE
FLORIDA STRAITS OUT 60 NM FROM THE REEF FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY
TORTUGAS. SMALL CRAFT WILL STILL LIKELY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS THE COOLER AND SHALLOWER FLORIDA BAY AND NEARSHORE GULF
WATERS INSIDE THE FIVE FATHOM LINE NORTH OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
KEYS. A CAUTIONARY HEADLINE IS LIKELY FOR THE DEEPER WATERS AGAIN
DURING SUNDAY...BUT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COOLER SHALLOW WATERS. THEN
WINDS WINDS SEAS WILL LET DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT...AND NO HEADLINES OR
ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH THROUGH AT
LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CEILINGS...BASED AT AROUND 4500
FEET...SHOULD GRADUALLY ERODE AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING. SUSTAINED
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE
TO ABOUT 5000 FEET WILL BACK TO NORTH THIS MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...1940...THE LOW
TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST WAS 47 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD
FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON JANUARY 30TH...A
RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 75 YEARS LATER. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY
WEST WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  74  64  74  67 / -  -  20 10
MARATHON  73  64  74  67 / -  -  20 10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BS

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 300229
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
929 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LATE EVENING IR SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A POCKET OF SHALLOW CU
EXTENDING TO ALONG THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE STRAITS. ANALYSIS SHOWS
LIGHTER WINDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE
GULF WATERS...AND MORE MODERATE NORTHEAST BREEZES ALONG THE ISLANDS
AND ATLANTIC WATERS. KBYX RADAR IS VOID OF PRECIPITATION ECHOES.
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

THE EVENING LOCAL SOUNDING SHOWS THAT THE WINDS IN THE LOWEST LEVELS
HAVE VEERED AND ARE LIGHTER THROUGH 10000 FEET THAN 12 HOURS AGO.
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA IS EXPECTED TO
FLATTEN E/W AND SETTLE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE HOMOGENEOUS FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...AND DROPPING OFF A FEW KNOTS. WILL BE
UPDATING THE ZONES...MAINLY FOR THE CLOUD COVERAGE CURRENTLY
INDICATED ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN MORE TO THE
NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
WINDS ALONG AND TO THE ATLANTIC SIDE OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. THE LATE
EVENING LOCAL SOUNDING WILL LIKELY SHOW A SMALL DOWNWARD TRANSITION
TO THE WIND SPEEDS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN A COUPLE OF THE
MARINE GROUPINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
TEMPORARY VFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE MARATHON AND KEY WEST LATE
THIS EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH BEFORE SUNRISE. EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS AT OR ABOVE 10 KNOTS
EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...TURNING TO THE NORTH AT OR BELOW 10
KNOTS.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........04
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....04
DATA COLLECTION.......L. KASPER

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 292024
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
324 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN AND SURROUNDING
NEARSHORE WATERS...AS AN IMPRESSIVE AND PERSISTENT MAINLAND SHADOW
HAS SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SERVICE AREA.
TEMPERATURES. A CONVERGENT AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS SET UP OVER
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND A FEW PATCHES OF DENSE CLOUD COVER AND
LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED THROUGH THE DAY. WIND SPEEDS HAVE
REMAINED MUCH ABOVE PREVIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE NUMBERS THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH GIVES DOUBT TO HOW QUICKLY A 1026 MB HIGH IS
CURRENTLY MIGRATING SOUTH AS PREVIOUS GLOBAL DYNAMIC MODELS WERE
INDICATING. REGARDLESS OF THE WIND SPEEDS...WIND DIRECTIONS HAVE
SHIFTED MOSTLY EAST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY...WHICH HAS WARMED
BOTH TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINT VALUES ACROSS ISLAND STATIONS.

.FORECAST...
GENERALLY NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP THE ISLAND
CHAIN WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRANSIT THE
EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY SATURDAY...AND WILL APPROACHTHE
KEYS BY MID AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST ALONG
THE ACTUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS THE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIROMNENT WILL BE
SUBSIDENT IN NATURE. THE GRADAULLY DECAYING NATURE OF THIS FRONT WILL
KEEP ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE KEYS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
ADDITIONAL FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ARE INDICATED TO CROSS THE KEYS AGAIN
LATE ON MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY INTO
THRUSDAY. SUBSTANTIALLY MORE UNCERTAINTY IS PRESENT IN THE INTENSITY
OF THE MONDAY FRONT. TIMING OF THE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FRONT WILL
ALSO BE IN DOUBT...BUT GLOBAL MODELS DO AGREE IT SHOULD BE THE MOST
INTENSE OF THE THREE. AS SUCH...HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST TO THE LOW END CHANCE (30 PERCENT)
CATEGORY.

&&

.MARINE...
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE WIND FORECASTS FOR THE TONIGHT
TIME PERIOD. MODELS HAVE CONSISTENLY INDICATED A SWIFTLY APPROACHING
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TONIGHT...BUT AS OF THE ISSUANCE OF THIS
FORECAST IT APPEARS TO BE STALLING OVER NORTH FLORIDA. REGARDLESS OF
THE ENDING POSITION OF THIS HIGH BY MIDNIGHT...EXPECT THAT EASTERLY
WINDS TO BE STRONGEST OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHERE CAUTIONARY
HEADLINES WILL BE RETAINED. ADDITIONAL BREIF MAINLAND SURGES ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR DAYBREAK...MOSTLY CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE
SABLE AND FLORIDA BAY. THEREAFTER...LIGHTER WINDS SHOULD SETTLE IN
FOR FRIDAY UNTIL A FRONT APPROACHES THE KEYS ON SATURDAY. CAUTIONARY
WORDING IS INDICATED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THIS
TIME...HOWEVER...SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...AND MOST LIKELY ON
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS. BRIEF
SPELLS OF VFR CEILINGS BASED AROUND 4500 FT WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST NORTHEAST NEAR 10
KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS...TURNING NORTH TO NORTHEAST
AND RELAX TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........MSB
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....11
DATA COLLECTION.......PARKE

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 292024
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
324 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN AND SURROUNDING
NEARSHORE WATERS...AS AN IMPRESSIVE AND PERSISTENT MAINLAND SHADOW
HAS SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SERVICE AREA.
TEMPERATURES. A CONVERGENT AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS SET UP OVER
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND A FEW PATCHES OF DENSE CLOUD COVER AND
LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED THROUGH THE DAY. WIND SPEEDS HAVE
REMAINED MUCH ABOVE PREVIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE NUMBERS THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH GIVES DOUBT TO HOW QUICKLY A 1026 MB HIGH IS
CURRENTLY MIGRATING SOUTH AS PREVIOUS GLOBAL DYNAMIC MODELS WERE
INDICATING. REGARDLESS OF THE WIND SPEEDS...WIND DIRECTIONS HAVE
SHIFTED MOSTLY EAST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY...WHICH HAS WARMED
BOTH TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINT VALUES ACROSS ISLAND STATIONS.

.FORECAST...
GENERALLY NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP THE ISLAND
CHAIN WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRANSIT THE
EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY SATURDAY...AND WILL APPROACHTHE
KEYS BY MID AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST ALONG
THE ACTUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS THE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIROMNENT WILL BE
SUBSIDENT IN NATURE. THE GRADAULLY DECAYING NATURE OF THIS FRONT WILL
KEEP ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE KEYS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
ADDITIONAL FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ARE INDICATED TO CROSS THE KEYS AGAIN
LATE ON MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY INTO
THRUSDAY. SUBSTANTIALLY MORE UNCERTAINTY IS PRESENT IN THE INTENSITY
OF THE MONDAY FRONT. TIMING OF THE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FRONT WILL
ALSO BE IN DOUBT...BUT GLOBAL MODELS DO AGREE IT SHOULD BE THE MOST
INTENSE OF THE THREE. AS SUCH...HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST TO THE LOW END CHANCE (30 PERCENT)
CATEGORY.

&&

.MARINE...
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE WIND FORECASTS FOR THE TONIGHT
TIME PERIOD. MODELS HAVE CONSISTENLY INDICATED A SWIFTLY APPROACHING
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TONIGHT...BUT AS OF THE ISSUANCE OF THIS
FORECAST IT APPEARS TO BE STALLING OVER NORTH FLORIDA. REGARDLESS OF
THE ENDING POSITION OF THIS HIGH BY MIDNIGHT...EXPECT THAT EASTERLY
WINDS TO BE STRONGEST OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHERE CAUTIONARY
HEADLINES WILL BE RETAINED. ADDITIONAL BREIF MAINLAND SURGES ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR DAYBREAK...MOSTLY CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE
SABLE AND FLORIDA BAY. THEREAFTER...LIGHTER WINDS SHOULD SETTLE IN
FOR FRIDAY UNTIL A FRONT APPROACHES THE KEYS ON SATURDAY. CAUTIONARY
WORDING IS INDICATED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THIS
TIME...HOWEVER...SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...AND MOST LIKELY ON
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS. BRIEF
SPELLS OF VFR CEILINGS BASED AROUND 4500 FT WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST NORTHEAST NEAR 10
KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS...TURNING NORTH TO NORTHEAST
AND RELAX TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........MSB
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....11
DATA COLLECTION.......PARKE

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 291600
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1100 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE KEYS...BUT MORE DENSE CLOUD COVER
IS FOUND SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. A FEW OF THE MORE DENSE
CUMULUS CLOUD BANKS ARE SHOWING LIGHT PRECIPITATION ECHOS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS...BUT IT IS DOUBTFUL IF ANY OF THESE LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE REACHING THE SURFACE. THE SHARPEST LIGHT OF INCREASING CLOUD
COVER IS CURRENTLY MIGRATING WEST AND ITS LEADING EDGE REPRESENTS THE
FRONT EDGE OF A WIND SHIFT. MORNING SOUNDING CAME IN WITH MOIST
CONDITIONS UP TO 5KFT...THEN EXCESSIVELY DRY CONDITIONS ABOVE THAT
LEVEL. OVERALL PWAT VALUE WAS BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS AT 0.62 INCHES.
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NORTHEASTERLY AT ALL STATIONS AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS...EXCEPT AT MOLASSES REEF WHICH IS ALREADY BEHIND THE WIND
SHIFT NEAR 15 KNOTS.

.SHORT TERM...
THE AFOREMENTIONED WIND SHIFT IS SET TO OVERSPREAD THE KEYS AND
SURROUNDING WATERS THROUGH BY EARLY AFTERNOON. COINCIDENTALLY...THE
MAINLAND THERMAL TROUGH WILL DECREASE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENTS...AND
DECREASE LOCAL WIND SPEEDS ACROSS ALL MARINE LOCATIONS EXCEPT THE
DISTANT STRAITS OF FLORIDA THAT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A TROPICAL
TRADE REGIME...WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. WITH
THIS EASTERLY WIND SHIFT... CLOUD COVER WILL SLIGHTLY
INCREASE...BUT TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL COME UNDER A MORE
TROPICAL ADVECTIVE REGIME...AND THEREFORE WILL BE WARMER AND MORE
HUMID THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. BEYOND THE FIRST PERIOD...NO CHANGES
ARE REQUIRED IN THIS FORECAST UPDATE.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL WINDS DECREASE ACROSS ALL
OF THE ATLANTIC AND DEEP GULF WATERS BY EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY.
RESIDUAL SEAS FROM THE OVERNIGHT WIND SURGE WILL SLOWLY RECEDED
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY ON THESE SAME DEEP
WATERS. A PRECIPITOUS DECLINE IN THE WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE NEARSHORE WATERS IN THE AFTERNOON...AS THE MAINLAND THERMAL
TROUGH EXPANDS CROSS THE ISLANDS. WINDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO
AN EASTERLY DIRECTION AS THIS OCCURS.

&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD... VFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST AT BOTH THE EYW AND MTH TERMINALS. WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE
EASTERLY AND GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL LULL TONIGHT.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........MSB
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....VICKERY
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 291600
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1100 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE KEYS...BUT MORE DENSE CLOUD COVER
IS FOUND SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. A FEW OF THE MORE DENSE
CUMULUS CLOUD BANKS ARE SHOWING LIGHT PRECIPITATION ECHOS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS...BUT IT IS DOUBTFUL IF ANY OF THESE LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE REACHING THE SURFACE. THE SHARPEST LIGHT OF INCREASING CLOUD
COVER IS CURRENTLY MIGRATING WEST AND ITS LEADING EDGE REPRESENTS THE
FRONT EDGE OF A WIND SHIFT. MORNING SOUNDING CAME IN WITH MOIST
CONDITIONS UP TO 5KFT...THEN EXCESSIVELY DRY CONDITIONS ABOVE THAT
LEVEL. OVERALL PWAT VALUE WAS BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS AT 0.62 INCHES.
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NORTHEASTERLY AT ALL STATIONS AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS...EXCEPT AT MOLASSES REEF WHICH IS ALREADY BEHIND THE WIND
SHIFT NEAR 15 KNOTS.

.SHORT TERM...
THE AFOREMENTIONED WIND SHIFT IS SET TO OVERSPREAD THE KEYS AND
SURROUNDING WATERS THROUGH BY EARLY AFTERNOON. COINCIDENTALLY...THE
MAINLAND THERMAL TROUGH WILL DECREASE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENTS...AND
DECREASE LOCAL WIND SPEEDS ACROSS ALL MARINE LOCATIONS EXCEPT THE
DISTANT STRAITS OF FLORIDA THAT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A TROPICAL
TRADE REGIME...WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. WITH
THIS EASTERLY WIND SHIFT... CLOUD COVER WILL SLIGHTLY
INCREASE...BUT TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL COME UNDER A MORE
TROPICAL ADVECTIVE REGIME...AND THEREFORE WILL BE WARMER AND MORE
HUMID THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. BEYOND THE FIRST PERIOD...NO CHANGES
ARE REQUIRED IN THIS FORECAST UPDATE.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL WINDS DECREASE ACROSS ALL
OF THE ATLANTIC AND DEEP GULF WATERS BY EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY.
RESIDUAL SEAS FROM THE OVERNIGHT WIND SURGE WILL SLOWLY RECEDED
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY ON THESE SAME DEEP
WATERS. A PRECIPITOUS DECLINE IN THE WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE NEARSHORE WATERS IN THE AFTERNOON...AS THE MAINLAND THERMAL
TROUGH EXPANDS CROSS THE ISLANDS. WINDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO
AN EASTERLY DIRECTION AS THIS OCCURS.

&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD... VFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST AT BOTH THE EYW AND MTH TERMINALS. WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE
EASTERLY AND GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL LULL TONIGHT.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........MSB
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....VICKERY
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 291127
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
627 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
UNTIL 00Z/30TH...DESPITE PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS BASED
BETWEEN 040-050...VFR CONDTIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON TERMINALS. MOSTLY NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS NEAR 15 KNOTS CAN BE ANTICIPATED AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...APA

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 291127
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
627 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
UNTIL 00Z/30TH...DESPITE PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS BASED
BETWEEN 040-050...VFR CONDTIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON TERMINALS. MOSTLY NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS NEAR 15 KNOTS CAN BE ANTICIPATED AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...APA

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 290835
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
335 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...700-200 MB...LATEST IR
IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH AVAILABLE MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF 300
AM ILLUSTRATE THE AXIS OF A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS NOW
MIGRATED EAST OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND ALIGNED NEAR 70 DEGREES
WEST. UPSTREAM OF THAT...A MOSTLY ZONAL/WEAKLY ANTICYCLONIC MID AND
UPPER FLOW IN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH THE NEXT WEAK
SHORTWAVE LOCATED NEAR IOWA AND PUSHING SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE AND
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS...SURFACE TO 700 MB...THE AXIS OF A
NEAR 1030 MB COLD SURFACE RIDGE IS ORIENTED FROM NEW YORK STATE
SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT. AS SUCH...LAST EVENINGS 00Z
SOUNDING AT KEY WEST ILLUSTRATED A FRESH AND VERY DRY NORTHERLY FLOW
FROM 1000 FEET AGL UP TO 500 MB...BECOMING NORTHWEST ABOVE
THAT...WITH A 3 DEGREE C INVERSION FROM ABOUT 950 MB TO 850 MB...WITH
TOTAL PWAT AT ONLY .38 INCHES.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 300 AM...SKIES ARE CLEAR OVER THE ENTIRE KEYS AND
IMMEDIATE SURROUNDING WATERS...WITH THE LEADING NORTH NORTHEAST TO
SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY EDGE OF A THINLY VEILED STRATOCU SHIELD
POSITIONED ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA STRAITS. TEMPERATURES OVER THE
ISLAND CHAIN ARE IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
COMFORTABLE 40S. C-MAN STATIONS ALONG THE FLORIDA REEF...FLORIDA
BAY...AND ARE REGISTERING 10 METER NORTHEAST WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THRU MONDAY NIGHT...MID AND UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW
BECOMES MAINLY ZONAL BY THIS AFTERNOON THRU THE WEEKEND. VERY DRY
AIR CONTINUES ALOFT. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE NOW OVER NW CANADA DOES
CARVE OUT THE LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL CONCISE IT REACHES
THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY WITH AN AMPLIFYING PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS SUNDAY THRU MONDAY...BUT WITH NOW
IMPACT AT KEYS LATITUDE. ONLY JUST A FEW WEAK MIDLEVEL IMPULSES MOVE
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY THRU MONDAY.

THE NEAR 1030 MB SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABORAD THIS
MORNING SLIDES EASTWARD. LOCALLY...THE MSLP GRADIENT LOOSENS AS A
WEAKER SURFACE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON MOVES SOUTH
BUT JUST REMAINS A 1020-1023 MB RIDGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. BUT FRIDAY NIGHT ANOTHER 1035 HIGH OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST IN COMBO WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER DOWNEAST MAINE
RESULTS IN ANOTHER DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING DOWN THE PENINSULA
AND ACROSS THE KEYS...WIND AN ASSOCIATED SURGE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE CAROLINA
PIEDMONT SATURDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...BEFORE SLIDING INTO THE
ATLANTIC SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DARTS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST AND THEN DEEPENS OFFSHORE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
THE NEXT FRONT NEAR THE KEYS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

BOTH THE LATEST AVAILABLE ECMWF  AND GFS MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ILLUSTRATE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAIN VERY DRY THRU FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT
INCREASE PWAT TO BETWEEN 1.00 AND 1.25 SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME SUGGESTION OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING...SO HAVE JUST INSERTED A DIME POP IN THE GRIDS
SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY MORNING...AND REMOVED POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT SLIGHTLY ELEVATED MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
ARE INDICATED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE KEYS REMAIN IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

EXTENDED...TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY...MID AND UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW
PATTER REMAINS IN PLACE...WITH WEAK IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE GULF
OF MEXICO AT 500 MB. BOTH LATEST AVAILABLE ECMWF AND GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE AMPLE MOISTURE IN 1000-700 MB LAYER WITH COLD
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE KEYS THRU THIS TIME. GIVEN
LATEST AVAILABLE FORECAST SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATION OF PWAT BETWEEN 1.00
AND 1.50 INCHES UNTIL THE NEXT POSSIBLE FRONT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OR NIGHT...HAVE BEEN INCLINED TO KEEP DIME POPS IN THE GRIDS THRU
THIS TIME. ADDITIONALLY...HI AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR LATE JANUARY WITH ELEVATED
HUMIDITY. HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION THIS MORNING
ACROSS ALL WATERS UNTIL WINDS SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL LET DOWN THIS AFTERNOON THRU FRIDAY AND HEADLINES OR ADVISORIES
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT HEADLINES ARE LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AGAIN DUE TO THE NEXT NORTHERLY SURGE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BUT
THE PROBABILITY IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THESE CONDITIONS IN
THE FORECAST. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/NORTHWESTERN GULF SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL
RESULT IN HEADLINES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
AGAIN BEFORE WINDS AND SEAS LET DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT THRU MONDAY NIGHT.


&&

.AVIATION...UNTIL 00Z/30TH...DESPITE PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS BASED
BETWEEN 040-050...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON TERMINALS. MOSTLY NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS NEAR 15 KNOTS CAN BE ANTICIPATED AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS.

&&

.CLIMATE....ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...1877...THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS 86 DEGREES. THIS
SET THE DAILY RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR KEY WEST WHICH STANDS
138 YEARS LATER. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  72  62  74  64 / 0 -  -  -
MARATHON  71  62  73  64 / 0 -  -  -

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/CLIMATE.........FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.............APA

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 290835
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
335 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...700-200 MB...LATEST IR
IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH AVAILABLE MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF 300
AM ILLUSTRATE THE AXIS OF A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS NOW
MIGRATED EAST OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND ALIGNED NEAR 70 DEGREES
WEST. UPSTREAM OF THAT...A MOSTLY ZONAL/WEAKLY ANTICYCLONIC MID AND
UPPER FLOW IN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH THE NEXT WEAK
SHORTWAVE LOCATED NEAR IOWA AND PUSHING SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE AND
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS...SURFACE TO 700 MB...THE AXIS OF A
NEAR 1030 MB COLD SURFACE RIDGE IS ORIENTED FROM NEW YORK STATE
SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT. AS SUCH...LAST EVENINGS 00Z
SOUNDING AT KEY WEST ILLUSTRATED A FRESH AND VERY DRY NORTHERLY FLOW
FROM 1000 FEET AGL UP TO 500 MB...BECOMING NORTHWEST ABOVE
THAT...WITH A 3 DEGREE C INVERSION FROM ABOUT 950 MB TO 850 MB...WITH
TOTAL PWAT AT ONLY .38 INCHES.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 300 AM...SKIES ARE CLEAR OVER THE ENTIRE KEYS AND
IMMEDIATE SURROUNDING WATERS...WITH THE LEADING NORTH NORTHEAST TO
SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY EDGE OF A THINLY VEILED STRATOCU SHIELD
POSITIONED ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA STRAITS. TEMPERATURES OVER THE
ISLAND CHAIN ARE IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
COMFORTABLE 40S. C-MAN STATIONS ALONG THE FLORIDA REEF...FLORIDA
BAY...AND ARE REGISTERING 10 METER NORTHEAST WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THRU MONDAY NIGHT...MID AND UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW
BECOMES MAINLY ZONAL BY THIS AFTERNOON THRU THE WEEKEND. VERY DRY
AIR CONTINUES ALOFT. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE NOW OVER NW CANADA DOES
CARVE OUT THE LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL CONCISE IT REACHES
THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY WITH AN AMPLIFYING PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS SUNDAY THRU MONDAY...BUT WITH NOW
IMPACT AT KEYS LATITUDE. ONLY JUST A FEW WEAK MIDLEVEL IMPULSES MOVE
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY THRU MONDAY.

THE NEAR 1030 MB SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABORAD THIS
MORNING SLIDES EASTWARD. LOCALLY...THE MSLP GRADIENT LOOSENS AS A
WEAKER SURFACE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON MOVES SOUTH
BUT JUST REMAINS A 1020-1023 MB RIDGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. BUT FRIDAY NIGHT ANOTHER 1035 HIGH OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST IN COMBO WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER DOWNEAST MAINE
RESULTS IN ANOTHER DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING DOWN THE PENINSULA
AND ACROSS THE KEYS...WIND AN ASSOCIATED SURGE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE CAROLINA
PIEDMONT SATURDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...BEFORE SLIDING INTO THE
ATLANTIC SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DARTS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST AND THEN DEEPENS OFFSHORE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
THE NEXT FRONT NEAR THE KEYS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

BOTH THE LATEST AVAILABLE ECMWF  AND GFS MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ILLUSTRATE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAIN VERY DRY THRU FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT
INCREASE PWAT TO BETWEEN 1.00 AND 1.25 SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME SUGGESTION OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING...SO HAVE JUST INSERTED A DIME POP IN THE GRIDS
SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY MORNING...AND REMOVED POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT SLIGHTLY ELEVATED MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
ARE INDICATED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE KEYS REMAIN IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

EXTENDED...TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY...MID AND UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW
PATTER REMAINS IN PLACE...WITH WEAK IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE GULF
OF MEXICO AT 500 MB. BOTH LATEST AVAILABLE ECMWF AND GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE AMPLE MOISTURE IN 1000-700 MB LAYER WITH COLD
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE KEYS THRU THIS TIME. GIVEN
LATEST AVAILABLE FORECAST SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATION OF PWAT BETWEEN 1.00
AND 1.50 INCHES UNTIL THE NEXT POSSIBLE FRONT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OR NIGHT...HAVE BEEN INCLINED TO KEEP DIME POPS IN THE GRIDS THRU
THIS TIME. ADDITIONALLY...HI AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR LATE JANUARY WITH ELEVATED
HUMIDITY. HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION THIS MORNING
ACROSS ALL WATERS UNTIL WINDS SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL LET DOWN THIS AFTERNOON THRU FRIDAY AND HEADLINES OR ADVISORIES
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT HEADLINES ARE LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AGAIN DUE TO THE NEXT NORTHERLY SURGE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BUT
THE PROBABILITY IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THESE CONDITIONS IN
THE FORECAST. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/NORTHWESTERN GULF SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL
RESULT IN HEADLINES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
AGAIN BEFORE WINDS AND SEAS LET DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT THRU MONDAY NIGHT.


&&

.AVIATION...UNTIL 00Z/30TH...DESPITE PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS BASED
BETWEEN 040-050...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON TERMINALS. MOSTLY NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS NEAR 15 KNOTS CAN BE ANTICIPATED AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS.

&&

.CLIMATE....ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...1877...THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS 86 DEGREES. THIS
SET THE DAILY RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR KEY WEST WHICH STANDS
138 YEARS LATER. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  72  62  74  64 / 0 -  -  -
MARATHON  71  62  73  64 / 0 -  -  -

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/CLIMATE.........FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.............APA

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 290201
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
901 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
CLEAR SKIES....COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS EVENING. WINDS
ARE OUT OF THE NORTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN...AND
NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS AT THE C-MAN REPORTING
STATIONS SURROUNDING THE ISLAND CHAIN. THE CULPRIT FOR THE
INCREASING WINDS IS THE COMBINATION OF THE LARGE RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES...AND A LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST.

.FORECAST...
THE MOVEMENT OF THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN STATES WILL BE THE MAJOR
FACTOR IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER
WILL DROP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES ARRIVING OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE THE RIDGE IN THE EAST TO
FRACTURE AND DRIVE THE SOUTHERN PORTION SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND DEEPEN QUICKLY...RESULTING IN A ROBUST AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO MOVE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH AN APPROACHING
SURFACE FRONT HEADING SOUTHEAST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. THIS APPROACHING FRONT WILL BE THE HARBINGER OF A WIND
SURGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NO CHANCE FOR RAIN DUE TO THE
LACK OF FORCING AND MOISTURE. THE CURRENT FORECAST WILL REMAIN
UNCHANGED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF A LOW
DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND A LARGE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. NORTH WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL INCREASE
TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS BY MIDNIGHT AND SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO EXERCISE
CAUTION. ANOTHER LOW WILL TRAVEL ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND WEAKEN THE RIDGE TO OUR
NORTH...RESULTING IN DECREASING WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL MAKE WAY ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE SATURDAY
WITH A QUICK BURST OF INCREASING WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY. A CAUTIONARY STATEMENT IS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MIDDAY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY AT THE KEY WEST
AND MARATHON TERMINALS. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...AND THEN FEW/SCT SHALLOW CU BASED NEAR 3500 FEET AS THE
NORTHERLY WINDS TRANSITION TO THE EASTERLY DIRECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...1957...THE HIGH TEMPERATURE
AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS 85 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY
RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR KEY WEST WHICH STANDS 58 YEARS LATER.
TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....04
DATA COLLECTION.......PARKE

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 281936
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
236 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HIGHLIGHTS AN IMPRESSIVE STREAK OF
DRY AIR ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS ARID SWATH
HINTS AT THE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO
OUR WEST AND THE DEPARTING LONG WAVE TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE IS FAVORED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. AVAILABLE
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE HIGH PRESSURE IS SPILLING SOUTH THROUGH
THE APPALACHIANS. SURFACE WINDS ARE FROM THE NORTHEAST AND HAVE
FREQUENTLY GUSTED NEAR 20 KNOTS. SKIES ARE SUNNY AND THE RADAR IS
ECHO FREE. TEMPERATURES HAVE SLUGGISHLY RISEN THROUGH THE
60S...BRRRR.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...LOW THETA-E AIR HAS
ENGULFED THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...IN FACT...DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO
THE LOWER 30S AT MOST LOCATIONS. GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...A DENSITY BLOW APPEARS LIKELY TONIGHT. THE
HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...LEADING THE WAY FOR A DECELERATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH
WILL STALL ACROSS FLORIDA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THUS...LOWS 55 TO
59 TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COOL AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY. WE
ADVERTISE LOWER 70S ON THURSDAY...BUT FIND IT HARD TO BELIEVE WE WILL
VEER TO EAST GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLED GULF SIDE WATER
TEMPERATURES. IF WINDS REMAIN NORTHEAST...THEN HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO
GET OUT OF THE 70S. NEVERTHELESS...A MODERATING TREND IS LIKELY
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES ARE NIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...A CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE
BAJA WILL DIRECT LOWER HEIGHTS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
AS A RESULT...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL ERODE AND RECEDE TO THE
SOUTH SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.  THE CUTOFF IS PROGGED TO
PHASE...OPEN...AND SLIDE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS SCENARIO WOULD FAVOR CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THUS...A MAINLY WEAK WIND FIELD WOULD
TEND TO STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
FOR NOW...WE HAVE RETAINED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH ADVERTISES
MILD WEATHER AND NO RAIN CHANCE. WE AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION WHICH HIGHLIGHTS ISENTROPIC ASCENT AT SOME TIME OVER THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...WE HAVE NOT INTRODUCED RAIN CHANCES BASED ON OUR
LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

&&

.MARINE...ANOTHER SURGE IN NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT...THUS SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FOR INCREASING
WINDS. FROM SYNOPSIS...A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL DROP SOUTHWARD TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A
RESULT... FRESH NORTHERLY BREEZES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AND VEER TO
THE EAST. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN
NORTH ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL AT ISLAND
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS ON THE LOW SIDE OF 10 TO 15
KNOTS GUSTING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL RELAX A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
STRENGTHEN BACK TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  59  72  62  74 / 0 0 0 0
MARATHON  58  71  62  73 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....11
DATA COLLECTION.......PARKE

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 281936
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
236 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HIGHLIGHTS AN IMPRESSIVE STREAK OF
DRY AIR ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS ARID SWATH
HINTS AT THE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO
OUR WEST AND THE DEPARTING LONG WAVE TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE IS FAVORED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. AVAILABLE
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE HIGH PRESSURE IS SPILLING SOUTH THROUGH
THE APPALACHIANS. SURFACE WINDS ARE FROM THE NORTHEAST AND HAVE
FREQUENTLY GUSTED NEAR 20 KNOTS. SKIES ARE SUNNY AND THE RADAR IS
ECHO FREE. TEMPERATURES HAVE SLUGGISHLY RISEN THROUGH THE
60S...BRRRR.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...LOW THETA-E AIR HAS
ENGULFED THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...IN FACT...DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO
THE LOWER 30S AT MOST LOCATIONS. GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...A DENSITY BLOW APPEARS LIKELY TONIGHT. THE
HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...LEADING THE WAY FOR A DECELERATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH
WILL STALL ACROSS FLORIDA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THUS...LOWS 55 TO
59 TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COOL AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY. WE
ADVERTISE LOWER 70S ON THURSDAY...BUT FIND IT HARD TO BELIEVE WE WILL
VEER TO EAST GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLED GULF SIDE WATER
TEMPERATURES. IF WINDS REMAIN NORTHEAST...THEN HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO
GET OUT OF THE 70S. NEVERTHELESS...A MODERATING TREND IS LIKELY
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES ARE NIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...A CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE
BAJA WILL DIRECT LOWER HEIGHTS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
AS A RESULT...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL ERODE AND RECEDE TO THE
SOUTH SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.  THE CUTOFF IS PROGGED TO
PHASE...OPEN...AND SLIDE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS SCENARIO WOULD FAVOR CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THUS...A MAINLY WEAK WIND FIELD WOULD
TEND TO STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
FOR NOW...WE HAVE RETAINED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH ADVERTISES
MILD WEATHER AND NO RAIN CHANCE. WE AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION WHICH HIGHLIGHTS ISENTROPIC ASCENT AT SOME TIME OVER THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...WE HAVE NOT INTRODUCED RAIN CHANCES BASED ON OUR
LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

&&

.MARINE...ANOTHER SURGE IN NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT...THUS SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FOR INCREASING
WINDS. FROM SYNOPSIS...A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL DROP SOUTHWARD TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A
RESULT... FRESH NORTHERLY BREEZES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AND VEER TO
THE EAST. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN
NORTH ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL AT ISLAND
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS ON THE LOW SIDE OF 10 TO 15
KNOTS GUSTING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL RELAX A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
STRENGTHEN BACK TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  59  72  62  74 / 0 0 0 0
MARATHON  58  71  62  73 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....11
DATA COLLECTION.......PARKE

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 281553
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1053 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...A COOL MORNING ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. LOCATIONS IN
THE UPPER KEYS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S...WHILE OBSERVING STATIONS IN
THE LOWER KEYS HAVE CREPT INTO THE MID 60S. A SURGE OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION/DRAINAGE OVERSWEPT THE ISLANDS SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE.
SINCE THEN...DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN FIFTEEN DEGREES AND NORTHERLY
WINDS HAVE AVERAGED AS HIGH AS 20 KNOTS (SEE OBSERVATIONS FROM
LONF1). THE MOST RECENT OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE MARINE DISTRICT
INDICATE BREEZES HAVE SLACKENED. SKIES ARE SUNNY AND THE RADAR IS
ECHO FREE.

.FORECAST...TODAY WILL REMAIN COOL AND SUNNY...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING
TO CLIMB THROUGH THE 60S. WINDS WILL LIKELY DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
THIS AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...ONLY TO
REINVIGORATE OVERNIGHT. THE FORECAST HANDLES THE PATTERN WELL AND
NEEDS NO CHANGES.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. AREAS IN THE LEE OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA MAY TEMPORARILY DROP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THIS DECREASE WILL BE SHORT LIVED. ANOTHER SURGE IN
NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A RESULT... FRESH NORTHERLY BREEZES
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AND VEER TO THE EAST. THEREAFTER...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REBUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL AT ISLAND
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS ON THE LOW SIDE OF 10 TO 15
KNOTS GUSTING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL RELAX A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
STRENGTHEN BACK TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY TONIGHT.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....11
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 281553
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1053 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...A COOL MORNING ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. LOCATIONS IN
THE UPPER KEYS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S...WHILE OBSERVING STATIONS IN
THE LOWER KEYS HAVE CREPT INTO THE MID 60S. A SURGE OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION/DRAINAGE OVERSWEPT THE ISLANDS SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE.
SINCE THEN...DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN FIFTEEN DEGREES AND NORTHERLY
WINDS HAVE AVERAGED AS HIGH AS 20 KNOTS (SEE OBSERVATIONS FROM
LONF1). THE MOST RECENT OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE MARINE DISTRICT
INDICATE BREEZES HAVE SLACKENED. SKIES ARE SUNNY AND THE RADAR IS
ECHO FREE.

.FORECAST...TODAY WILL REMAIN COOL AND SUNNY...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING
TO CLIMB THROUGH THE 60S. WINDS WILL LIKELY DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
THIS AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...ONLY TO
REINVIGORATE OVERNIGHT. THE FORECAST HANDLES THE PATTERN WELL AND
NEEDS NO CHANGES.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. AREAS IN THE LEE OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA MAY TEMPORARILY DROP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THIS DECREASE WILL BE SHORT LIVED. ANOTHER SURGE IN
NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A RESULT... FRESH NORTHERLY BREEZES
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AND VEER TO THE EAST. THEREAFTER...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REBUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL AT ISLAND
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS ON THE LOW SIDE OF 10 TO 15
KNOTS GUSTING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL RELAX A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
STRENGTHEN BACK TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY TONIGHT.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....11
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 281553
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1053 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...A COOL MORNING ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. LOCATIONS IN
THE UPPER KEYS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S...WHILE OBSERVING STATIONS IN
THE LOWER KEYS HAVE CREPT INTO THE MID 60S. A SURGE OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION/DRAINAGE OVERSWEPT THE ISLANDS SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE.
SINCE THEN...DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN FIFTEEN DEGREES AND NORTHERLY
WINDS HAVE AVERAGED AS HIGH AS 20 KNOTS (SEE OBSERVATIONS FROM
LONF1). THE MOST RECENT OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE MARINE DISTRICT
INDICATE BREEZES HAVE SLACKENED. SKIES ARE SUNNY AND THE RADAR IS
ECHO FREE.

.FORECAST...TODAY WILL REMAIN COOL AND SUNNY...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING
TO CLIMB THROUGH THE 60S. WINDS WILL LIKELY DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
THIS AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...ONLY TO
REINVIGORATE OVERNIGHT. THE FORECAST HANDLES THE PATTERN WELL AND
NEEDS NO CHANGES.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. AREAS IN THE LEE OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA MAY TEMPORARILY DROP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THIS DECREASE WILL BE SHORT LIVED. ANOTHER SURGE IN
NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A RESULT... FRESH NORTHERLY BREEZES
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AND VEER TO THE EAST. THEREAFTER...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REBUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL AT ISLAND
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS ON THE LOW SIDE OF 10 TO 15
KNOTS GUSTING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL RELAX A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
STRENGTHEN BACK TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY TONIGHT.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....11
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 281553
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1053 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...A COOL MORNING ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. LOCATIONS IN
THE UPPER KEYS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S...WHILE OBSERVING STATIONS IN
THE LOWER KEYS HAVE CREPT INTO THE MID 60S. A SURGE OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION/DRAINAGE OVERSWEPT THE ISLANDS SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE.
SINCE THEN...DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN FIFTEEN DEGREES AND NORTHERLY
WINDS HAVE AVERAGED AS HIGH AS 20 KNOTS (SEE OBSERVATIONS FROM
LONF1). THE MOST RECENT OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE MARINE DISTRICT
INDICATE BREEZES HAVE SLACKENED. SKIES ARE SUNNY AND THE RADAR IS
ECHO FREE.

.FORECAST...TODAY WILL REMAIN COOL AND SUNNY...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING
TO CLIMB THROUGH THE 60S. WINDS WILL LIKELY DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
THIS AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...ONLY TO
REINVIGORATE OVERNIGHT. THE FORECAST HANDLES THE PATTERN WELL AND
NEEDS NO CHANGES.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. AREAS IN THE LEE OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA MAY TEMPORARILY DROP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THIS DECREASE WILL BE SHORT LIVED. ANOTHER SURGE IN
NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A RESULT... FRESH NORTHERLY BREEZES
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AND VEER TO THE EAST. THEREAFTER...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REBUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL AT ISLAND
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS ON THE LOW SIDE OF 10 TO 15
KNOTS GUSTING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL RELAX A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
STRENGTHEN BACK TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY TONIGHT.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....11
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 281133
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
633 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AT BOTH THE KEY WEST
INTERNATIONAL AND MARATHON FLORIDA KEYS ISLAND AIRPORTS. SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS AVERGAING FROM 360 DEGREES BETWEEN 12 AND 15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS WILL GENERATE CROSSWINDS ON
DEPARTURE AND ARRIVAL. JUST A FEW CLOUDS AT FL035-040 WILL DISSIPATE
BY 14Z WITH SKC.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...FUTTERMAN

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 281133
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
633 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AT BOTH THE KEY WEST
INTERNATIONAL AND MARATHON FLORIDA KEYS ISLAND AIRPORTS. SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS AVERGAING FROM 360 DEGREES BETWEEN 12 AND 15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS WILL GENERATE CROSSWINDS ON
DEPARTURE AND ARRIVAL. JUST A FEW CLOUDS AT FL035-040 WILL DISSIPATE
BY 14Z WITH SKC.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...FUTTERMAN

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