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000
FXUS62 KKEY 311913
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
313 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL UNITED
STATES...A RIDGE UP THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES...AND A LONG WAVE
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE EAST. A 1036 MB POLAR SURFACE HIGH IS
SPILLING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS. A COMPLEX OF CONSOLIDATING
SHORT WAVES ARE ROUNDING THE BASE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE STEADILY INCREASED THIS
AFTERNOON...FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR CWA...RANGING FROM 15 TO 20
KNOTS AT PULASKI SHOAL...TO NEAR 10 KNOTS IN FLORIDA BAY. DEWPOINTS
REMAIN NEAR 70...AND SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY. ISOLATED SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO WAX AND WANE WITHIN BROADLY CONVERGENT AND CYCLONIC FLOW.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...MIMIC TPW IMAGERY LOOPS
PLACE A DOME OF CONTINENTAL AIR ENGULFING THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...BEHIND THE FIRST OF TWO COLD FRONTS. BASED ON ITS
PROGRESSION THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF...THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING AROUND SUNSET. ITS PASSAGE
WILL NOT BE SHARP...BUT LOWER HUMIDITY...SLOWLY INCREASING
NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES...AND CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A
SECOND FRONT WILL RACE THROUGH THE GULF ON SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL
BE MUCH MORE ENERGETIC AND SHARP...RESULTING IN A SIGNIFICANT WIND
SURGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...LASTING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. DEWPOINTS
WILL FALL APPRECIABLY BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT...IN FACT...LOW
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE NEAR RECORDS (62F IN KEY WEST SET
BACK IN 1957). THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE DISRUPTED ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT GIVEN THE NEARLY 24 HOURS OF CONTINENTAL
NORTHERLIES...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE 70F. A COMBINATION OF
CAA AND STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO FRESH
NORTHEASTERLIES SUNDAY NIGHT. THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...EXCLUDING
OVERNIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE NIL.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE CONTINENTAL HIGH WILL SLOWLY
TRANSITION INTO A SUBTROPICAL HIGH...EXPANDING ACROSS THE WESTERN
NORTH ATLANTIC. FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG BREEZES WILL PERSIST
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL START TO RELAX WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AS AN INVERTED TROUGH APPROACHES IN THE
EASTERLIES. THEREAFTER...A SLOPPY PATTERN UNFOLDS...RESULTING FROM
THE INTERACTION OF BATTLING UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER. FOR NOW...WE WILL
WAIT FOR MORE AGREEMENT IN THE LONG RANGE.

&&

.MARINE...A SIGNIFICANT WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED TO START SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY TO 20 TO 25
KNOTS...ACCOMPANIED BY FREQUENT GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS. THE FRESH TO
STRONG BREEZES WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THUS...A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. FROM
SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE KEYS THIS
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING. SUSTAINED WEST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS
FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 3000 FEET WILL VEER TO NORTHWEST
AND INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS TONIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN
1953...THE LOW TEMPERATURE AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS 62
DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE MEASURED
IN KEY WEST ON OCTOBER 31ST...A RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 61 YEARS
LATER. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  71  76  61  71 / -  -  0 0
MARATHON  70  78  57  69 / -  -  0 0

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BS
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 311447
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1045 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE FIRST OF TWO COLD FRONTS IS PUSHING THROUGH
CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF. AHEAD OF THIS LEADING
FRONT...A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FLORIDA
KEYS. ALONG THE TROUGH...ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE
PERSISTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND THE FLORIDA
STRAITS. SCATTERED SHOWERS 60 NM NORTHEAST OF THE FLORIDA KEYS
APPEAR TO BE ALIGNED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A WIND SURGE...OWING
TO THEIR FASTER MOVEMENT TO THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS AT THE MARINE
OBSERVATION TOWERS HAVE SLOWLY INCREASED THIS MORNING...NOW WESTERLY
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS...WHILE BUOY 42003 HAS NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20
KNOTS. DEWPOINTS ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE AROUND 70F...COMPARED TO
59F AT 42003...SO CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY.

.FORECAST...THE WEAKENING COOL FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE KEYS
AROUND 700 PM THIS EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY BREEZY
NORTHWESTERLIES...LOWERING HUMIDITY...AND CUMULUS-CLEARING SKIES. BY
TOMORROW MORNING...DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE AROUND 60F. THE ISLANDS WILL
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND THE CURRENT
FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE ZONES...BUT A FEW
TWEAKS TO THE COASTALS INCLUDING MENTIONING OF A SHORT-SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY TONIGHT ACROSS FLORIDA BAY.

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE KEYS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SUSTAINED WEST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS FROM JUST OFF THE
SURFACE TO ABOUT 3000 FEET WILL VEER TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
NEAR 20 KNOTS THIS EVENING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1912...2.15 INCHES
OF RAIN FELL IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR MAXIMUM
RAINFALL MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON OCTOBER 31ST...A RECORD WHICH STILL
STANDS 102 YEARS LATER. RAINFALL RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO
1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BS
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 311135 AAA
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
735 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SUSTAINED WEST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE TO
ABOUT 3000 FEET WILL VEER TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS
THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

AVIATION...BS

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 310805
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
405 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PATCHES OF LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE COVERED THE NORTHERN...EASTERN...AND
WESTERN EXTREMES OF THE KEYS SERVICE AREA THIS MORNING. UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...TEMPERATURES ALONG THE KEYS ISLAND CHAIN ARE BETWEEN
70 AND 75 DEGREES WITH A LIGHT WESTERLY BREEZE IN PLACE.

A COLD FRONT WILL SAG THROUGH THE KEYS SERVICE AREA THROUGH TODAY. A
STRONGER FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PENINSULA BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND.

THE CENTER OF THIS RELATIVELY BROAD AREA OF HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE
WILL SETTLE CLOSE TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK...AND THEN OFF THE COAST IN THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC BY LATE
TUESDAY. PUSHED OUR CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN BACK TO MONDAY BASED
ON THE RATE OF RETURN OF MOISTURE DEPICTED IN THE LATEST RUN OF THE
EXTENDED MODELS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH THE LOCAL AREA REMAINING
ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH PRESSURE. LOWER PRESSURE SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST OF THE KEYS SHOULD MAINTAIN AT LEAST BREEZY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
GENTLY BREEZES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MODERATE FROM THE
NORTHWEST...THEN FRESHEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY
STRONGER BREEZES WILL EXPAND FROM WEST WATERS TO EASTERN WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION INITIALLY
IN THE WESTERN GULF WATERS TONIGHT...THEN EXTENDING TO EASTERN
WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY FOR ALL WATERS SURROUNDING
THE FLORIDA KEYS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH
TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND 14Z FOR EYW AND 15Z FOR MTH
AND WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  82  71  76  64 / 20 -  -  -
MARATHON  83  70  78  60 / 20 -  -  -

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........04
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....VICKERY
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 310019
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
819 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
MOST OF THE RETURNS FROM THE KBYX RADAR ARE ANTHROPOGENIC INSIDE THE
KEYS AREA AT THIS HOUR. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT ALL THE
OBSERVATION PLATFORMS ALONG AND SURROUNDING THE KEYS. SKIES ARE
MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOWER KEYS.

.FORECAST...
CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND NORTH FLORIDA. THE FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE
FRIDAY EVENING...BUT THE CHANGES INITIALLY WILL BE QUITE SUBTLE. A
SECONDARY BOUNDARY WILL WILL REINFORCE THE INITIAL FRONT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST COLD AIR ADVECTION OF THE FALL SO FAR. AS
THE COLD AIR ARRIVES WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 60S SUNDAY
MORNING. THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD AIR WILL COINCIDE WITH A LARGE AREA
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. THE RIDGE WILL BE QUITE STRONG WITH A CENTRAL CORE AROUND
1035 MILLIBARS. THOUGH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LIKELY BE CUT OFF
BY MONDAY...THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE STRONG WINDS THROUGH
AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON THE KEYS WATERS THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO ADVISORY CRITERIA ON THE GULF WATERS FIRST...THEN
SPREADING OVER THE ENTIRE KEYS WATERS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL AT THE EYW AND MTH TERMINALS. A FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL BRING A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT...AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND
SPEEDS TO THE ISLAND CHAIN BETWEEN 12Z AND AND 18Z FRIDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...1933...3.61 INCHES OF RAIN
FELL IN KEY WEST SETTING THE DAILY RECORD RAINFALL ON OCTOBER 30TH.
THIS RECORD REMAINS STANDING AFTER 81 YEARS. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR KEY
WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....MSB
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 301901
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
305 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. ELSEWHERE...KBYX DETECTS NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE
PARTLY CLOUDY. WINDS OVER LAND ARE VARIABLE NEAR 5 MPH. C-MAN
WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE VARIABLE NEAR 5 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE LOWER 80S.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH
THE FLORIDA KEYS FRIDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A RATHER STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
SATURDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST WILL BE HIGHEST WELL AHEAD OF THE INITIAL COLD FRONT LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ENTER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN TUESDAY NIGHT. AN
ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE SUNDAY. BE THAT AS IT MAY...NO MORE THAN
DIME POPS ARE NEEDED IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BREEZES WILL TURN TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST ON ALL
KEYS COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO EXERCISE
CAUTION ON THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE OFFSHORE GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO SUSTAINED NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED
FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL AT THE EYW AND MTH TERMINALS. MAINLY NORTHWEST
BREEZES NEAR 5 KNOTS WILL SLOWLY STRENGTHEN AFTER 12Z FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEY WEST CLIMATE HISTORY...IN 1910...A PARTICULARLY
COLD DAY UNFOLDED ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. IN THAT YEAR...THE DAILY
RECORD COLD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 71F WAS RECORDED IN KEY WEST. ALSO
ON OCT 30TH...1910...THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 59F WAS
RECORDED IN KEY WEST. THIS RECORD LOW IS ALSO TIED FOR THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED IN OCTOBER IN KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE
RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  73 82 71 76 / 30 30 05 05
MARATHON  72 83 70 76 / 30 30 05 05

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....................CLR
DATA ACQUISITION.....................FLING

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 301355
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
955 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER OFFSHORE WATERS SURROUNDING THE
LOWER KEYS. ELSEWHERE...KBYX DETECTS NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE
PARTLY CLOUDY. WINDS OVER LAND ARE NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH. C-MAN
WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES
ARE NEAR 80 DEGREES.

.SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON)...
IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. IN
THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY. THE
12Z KKEY SOUNDING IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND QUITE DRY FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR...WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUE JUST ABOVE ONE AND
ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL INCREASE A BIT
THIS AFTERNOON. BY SUNSET THIS EVENING...PWAT VALUES WILL BE JUST
UNDER ONE AND ONE HALF OF AN INCH...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE END OF OCTOBER. THE PRESENCE OF THIS RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS
WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES TO NO MORE THAN 10 PERCENT FOR TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT NORTHEAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON. NO ADVISORIES
OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ON THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO SUSTAINED NORTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC AND GULF OF MEXICO
SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS OF FLORIDA BAY SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
BE REQUIRED FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
DATA FROM THE 12Z KKEY RAOB SOUNDING PLACES AN INVERSION AROUND
080...TRAPPING ALTOCUMULUS AND ALTOSTRATUS LAYERS WHICH ARE
SPREADING AND THINNING ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN. THESE DECKS WILL
GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5 KNOTS AND FROM THE NORTHEAST...BACKING TO THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEY WEST CLIMATE HISTORY...IN 1910...A PARTICULARLY
COLD DAY UNFOLDED ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. IN THAT YEAR...THE DAILY
RECORD COLD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 71F WAS RECORDED IN KEY WEST. ALSO
ON OCT 30TH...1910...THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 59F WAS
RECORDED IN KEY WEST. THIS RECORD LOW IS ALSO TIED FOR THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED IN OCTOBER IN KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE
RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION/CLIMATE.............CLR
DATA ACQUISITION.............CHESSER

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 301135 AAA
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
735 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.AVIATION...EARLY DATA FROM THE 12Z KEY RAOB SOUNDING PLACES AN
INVERSION AROUND 080...TRAPPING ALTOCUMULUS AND ALTOSTRATUS LAYERS
WHICH ARE SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM NORTH OF THE TERMINALS.
NEVERTHELESS...THESE DECKS WILL REMAIN SUPRA-VFR FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...GIVING MAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

$$

AVIATION...CLR

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 300846
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
446 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA IN OUR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING.
CORRESPONDING GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FALLS ARE OCCURRING AS A SERIES OF
DIGGING SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS HELP CARVE OUT A LARGE-SCALE EASTERN U.S.
TROUGH WITHIN A MORE AMPLIFIED PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW REGIME ACROSS
THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS...WITH PRIMARY
ANTICYCLONE CENTERS NOW LOCATED FAR TO THE EAST OVER THE NORTH
ATLANTIC...AND ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A SLOW-MOVING
COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...EXTENDING
NORTHEASTWARD JUST OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS EARLY THIS MORNING IS VERY NEARLY MARITIME TROPICAL...
WITH AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 70S AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 70S.

A FEW SHOWERS WITH MODERATE RAIN ARE MOVING LITTLE OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AT THE MOMENT. MOST TOPS ARE BELOW 15000
FEET ELEVATION. THERE SEEMS TO BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND MESOSCALE
CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT THIS PERSISTENT AREA OF SHOWERS...WITH
RESIDUAL ALTOSTRATUS AND ALTOCUMULUS DECKS SPREADING NEAR THE
INVERSION LAYER BASED AT ABOUT 7600 FEET.

FORECASTS -- TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY -- INCREASING CYCLONIC FLOW AND
MOMENTUM ALOFT IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH CONTINUED HEIGHT FALLS OVER
MOST OF THE GULF BASIN AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD...REACHING THE FLORIDA KEYS PROBABLY SOMETIME FRIDAY
EVENING. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE VERY LIMITED
SINCE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK WHILE BACKING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE. SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE KEPT IN THE
FORECAST...WITH THE BEST CHANCE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT -- THE COOLEST AND DRIEST WEATHER
SINCE LAST SPRING IS EXPECTED IN THE FLORIDA KEYS THIS WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS REGARDING EXACTLY HOW
COOL AND HOW DRY IT WILL GET. IT WILL DEPEND ON THE BOUNDARY-LAYER
TRAJECTORIES WHICH SET UP BETWEEN AN ARCTIC ANTICYCLONE OVER
CENTRAL/EASTERN UNITED STATES AND A DEVELOPING GALE CENTER OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. IN ANY CASE...THE COOL-DOWN WILL BE SHORT-LIVED.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY -- THE ARCTIC ANTICYCLONE WILL MAINTAIN
INTENSITY AS IT TURNS EASTWARD BENEATH A PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW
PATTERN. FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO VEER RAPIDLY...
BRINGING IN MARINE AIR FROM THE ATLANTIC. AIR TEMPERATURES AND
MOISTURE WILL REBOUND RAPIDLY DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SHOWERS BACK IN
THE FORECAST.
&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
FRONT LIKELY WILL PASS THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A RATHER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IN ITS WAKE...ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. FRESH TO STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES
LIKELY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...AND PERSIST INTO MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY WILL
GO INTO EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE SERVICE AREA BETWEEN SATURDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL
JUST AFTER SUNRISE AND WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  83  72  82  71 / 10 10 20 10
MARATHON  84  72  83  70 / 10 10 20 10
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....VICKERY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 300113
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
913 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
MOST OF THE RETURNS FROM THE KBYX RADAR ARE ANTHROPOGENIC. A THIN
VEIL OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS IS DISSIPATING OVER THE LOWER
KEYS. MEANWHILE...A FRONT IS APPROACHING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WITH
AN IMMENSE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT.
WINDS ARE DECREASING AND OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST NEAR 5 KNOTS AT THE
ISLAND TERMINALS...AND 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT THE MARINE REPORTING STATIONS
SURROUNDING THE ISLAND CHAIN.

.FORECAST...
EXPECTING LITTLE CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST OUTSIDE OF OMITTING
RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...ARRIVING LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON OR EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL NOT PRODUCE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF WEATHER...BUT THE RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND WILL PROVIDE
BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR SEVERAL DAYS. MODEL GUIDANCE AND ANALOG
FORECASTS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ON ALL KEYS WATERS THROUGH
FRIDAY. A FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...CROSSING THE FLORIDA KEYS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN
TO THE NORTHWEST THEN NORTH BY SATURDAY MORNING...AND INCREASE
QUICKLY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR ALL KEY WATERS...AND EXTEND AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 30/00Z...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY
WEST INTERNATIONAL AND MARATHON ISLAND TERMINALS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1892...THE LOW
TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST WAS 59 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD
FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON OCTOBER 29TH...AND
TIED THE RECORD FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE DURING THE MONTH OF OCTOBER.
THE DAILY RECORD STILL STANDS 122 YEARS LATER. ADDITIONALLY...THIS IS
THE EARLIEST FALL DATE ON WHICH A TEMPERATURE BELOW 60 DEGREES HAS
BEEN MEASURED IN KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK
TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....DEVANAS
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 291819
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
320 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. ELSEWHERE...KBYX DETECTS NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE
PARTLY CLOUDY. WINDS OVER LAND ARE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE EAST NEAR 10 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES ARE
IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PASS
THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS FRIDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES IN THE SHORT
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST SHOULD BE HIGHEST WELL AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY NIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENTER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC
OCEAN MONDAY NIGHT. AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A
VERY DRY AIR MASS OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR A
NEAR ZERO CHANCE OF RAINFALL SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT. BE THAT AS IT MAY...
NO MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE NEEDED FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE EAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ON ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.
NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ON THE COASTAL
WATERS OF THE OFFSHORE GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO SUSTAINED
NORTHWEST TO NORTH SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC AND
GULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO
EXERCISE CAUTION ON THE COASTAL WATERS OF FLORIDA BAY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO SUSTAINED NORTHWEST TO NORTH SURFACE WINDS OF
15 TO 20 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR
ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
29/18Z TAF ISSUANCE...AN AREA OF CLOUD COVER IS THINNING...AND
GRADUALLY MOVING WEST OF THE KEY WEST TERMINAL. AFTER THIS FEATURE
DISSIPATES...MOSTLY VFR SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1892...THE LOW
TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST WAS 59 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD
FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON OCTOBER 29TH...A
RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 122 YEARS LATER. THIS LOW TEMPERATURE OF
59 DEGREES IS TIED AS THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED IN KEY
WEST DURING THE MONTH OF OCTOBER. IN ADDITION...THIS IS THE EARLIEST
FALL DATE ON WHICH A TEMPERATURE BELOW 60 DEGREES HAS BEEN MEASURED
IN KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  75 84 73 81 / 10 10 20 20
MARATHON  76 84 73 82 / 10 10 20 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....................MSB
DATA ACQUISITION.....................FLING

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 291424
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1025 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS
SURROUNDING THE LOWER KEYS. ELSEWHERE...KBYX DETECTS NO
PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES
OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE PARTLY CLOUDY. WINDS OVER LAND ARE EAST
NEAR 10 MPH. C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE EAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 80S.

.SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON)...
IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM...CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN...WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD AND WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY. THE 12Z KKEY SOUNDING IS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND TYPICALLY MOIST FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH
A PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUE JUST ABOVE ONE AND ONE HALF OF AN
INCH. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON. BY SUNSET
THIS EVENING...PWAT VALUES WILL BE JUST UNDER ONE AND ONE HALF OF AN
INCH...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF OCTOBER. NO
MORE THAN DIME POPS ARE NEEDED FOR TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL THIS
AFTERNOON. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY
BE REQUIRED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC AND GULF OF
MEXICO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO
EXERCISE CAUTION ON THE COASTAL WATERS OF FLORIDA BAY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO SUSTAINED NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS OF
15 TO 20 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR
ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
29/12Z TAF ISSUANCE...A BAND OF SHOWERS AND PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS
SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY 16Z (NOON LOCAL TIME) ACROSS KEY WEST
AND SURROUNDING AREAS. OTHERWISE...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST
OF THE DAY AND LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD VARY A BIT IN MAGNITUDE
AND DIRECTION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1892...THE LOW
TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST WAS 59 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD
FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON OCTOBER 29TH...A
RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 122 YEARS LATER. THIS LOW TEMPERATURE OF
59 DEGREES IS TIED AS THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED IN KEY
WEST DURING THE MONTH OF OCTOBER. IN ADDITION...THIS IS THE EARLIEST
FALL DATE ON WHICH A TEMPERATURE BELOW 60 DEGREES HAS BEEN MEASURED
IN KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....................MSB
DATA ACQUISITION.....................MP

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 290905
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
505 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AN APPRAISAL OF EARLY-MORNING SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS AND SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS SHOWS A PESKY AREA OF
ALTOCUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED BANDS OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS. THE DEEP ANTICYCLONE WHICH WAS CENTERED
NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA 24 HOURS AGO HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD AND
WEAKENED RAPIDLY...WITH INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC AND HIGHER MOMENTUM
FLOW TAKING ITS PLACE ACROSS THE GULF BASIN. A COMBINATION OF
DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION AND WARM THERMAL ADVECTION
SEEMS TO HAVE FORCED THE LAYER LIFTING ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. IN ANY CASE...THE LIFTING EPISODE APPEARS TO BE NEARLY
OVER...AND WE EXPECT CLOUD AND SHOWER COVERAGE TO DECREASE LATER THIS
MORNING...BUT NOT BEFORE A FEW KEYS ISLAND COMMUNITIES...ESPECIALLY
IN THE LOWER KEYS...GET A BRIEF WETTING. IN FACT...SOME SHOWERS ARE
ABOUT TO PASS THROUGH PARTS OF KEY WEST IMMINENTLY.

MEANWHILE...THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE HAVE CONTINUED
MODIFYING TOWARD EQUILIBRIUM WITH THE SURROUNDING STILL-WARM OCEAN
WATERS. CURRENTLY...AIR TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA RANGE FROM NEAR
80F ALONG THE FLORIDA REEFS TO MID 70S IN ISLAND INTERIOR LOCATIONS.
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE NOW UP IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

FOR TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT -- A WEAKER SURFACE PRESSURE
PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIGHTER BREEZES BACKING TO
NORTHEAST LATER TODAY...THEN NORTHWEST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF
DIGGING SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS IN A INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED...BUT STILL
PROGRESSIVE...UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL SUPPORT WAVE CYCLOGENESIS OVER
THE GULF STREAM OFF THE CAROLINAS AND AN EQUATORWARD-MOVING
ANTICYCLONE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LIKELY WILL APPROACH THE FLORIDA KEYS LATE
FRIDAY...AND SWEEP THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST DROPS MARKEDLY FOR THE SATURDAY-MONDAY TIME
FRAME OWING TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE COLD THERMAL ADVECTION PATTERN...
WHICH WILL DEPEND ON THE AIR FLOW BETWEEN A RAPIDLY EVOLVING GALE
CENTER AND THE ANTICYCLONE IN ITS WAKE. MODEL TRENDS ARE POINTING
TOWARD MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR GETTING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE KEYS BY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ALSO...A PERIOD OF FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES
LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY BEGINNING OVER THE WEEKEND...AND POSSIBLY
PEAKING EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS HERE AS WELL.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BESIDES DURING
THE NEXT HOUR IN THE LOWER KEYS...SHOULD BE PRECEDING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED...AND STABLE LAYERS WILL DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME WITH A LACK OF
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. A POST-FRONTAL RAIN-FREE PERIOD
LOOKS LIKELY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND WE HAVE MADE THE APPROPRIATE
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE AND DERIVED FORECAST
PRODUCTS.
&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE WILL BE RETAINED FOR
ZONES COVERING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THIS MORNING FOR RESIDUAL
6-FOOT SEAS MAINLY IN THE GULF STREAM. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND
WEAKEN TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT LIKELY WILL PASS
THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH A RATHER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IN ITS WAKE...ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
FRESH TO STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES LIKELY WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 06Z... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH KEY WEST AND
MARATHON. THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS AT THE
EYW TERMINAL EARLY ON IN THE TAF...AFTERWARD SHOWERS ARE NOT
EXPECTED. LIGHT WINDS AND EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR BOTH TERMINALS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  84  74  83  73 / 10 10 10 10
MARATHON  85  74  84  73 / 10 10 10 10
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....VICKERY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 290235
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1035 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...A BROAD RIDGE-TROUGH COMPLEX IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS
IS PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN AND EASTERN UNITED
STATES...RESPECTIVELY. THIS EVENING`S RAOB ANALYSIS CORROBORATES
FALLING HEIGHTS IN THE EAST AND RISING HEIGHTS IN THE PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY...WHILE THE SOUTHEAST`S HIGH PRESSURE JOINS THE EXPANSES OF
THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC. MIMIC TPW LOOPS DESCRIBE THE OPENING OF
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...ALLOWING THE TROPICS TO GAIN LATITUDE ACROSS
THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE GRADIENT
APPEARS TO BE RELAXING AT THE AVAILABLE OBSERVING STATIONS...15 TO 20
KNOTS AT PULASKI SHOAL AND SAND KEY...NEAR 15 KNOTS OR LOWER AT THE
REMAINING PLATFORMS. A WEAK SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF
CLOUDED SKIES EARLIER THIS EVENING...LIFTING THE TOPS OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER SHOWERS INTO THE INVERSION BASED AT 750 MB (PER THE 00Z KEY
SOUNDING). THE SHOWERS HAVE SINCE MOVED INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS
SOUTH OF THE TORTUGAS.

.FORECAST...AS THE SHORT WAVE SLIDES EAST...THE ENHANCED CLOUD COVER
SHOULD ABATE. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT. THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ALLOWING
NORTHEAST TO EAST STEERING FLOW TO BECOME NORTHERLY. GUIDANCE
INDICATES VERY LITTLE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE TO MAKE A REAL
COMEBACK...SO ISOLATED SHOWERS APPEAR ADEQUATE FOR THE NEXT FEW
PERIODS.

&&

.MARINE...A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN NORTH
ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT. A STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...BEHIND A WEAK COLD
FRONT...ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FLORIDA
KEYS FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. NORTHEAST BREEZES WILL FRESHEN BEHIND
THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL AT THE EYW AND MTH TERMINALS. BKN VFR
DECKS BASED AT 060-080 WILL SLOWLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. RAIN CHANCES FOR
EITHER TERMINAL ARE MINIMAL.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
NOWCASTS..............CLR
AVIATION..............CLR/FLING
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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