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000
FXUS62 KKEY 271533
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1030 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

...HAPPY THANKSGIVING...

.DISCUSSION...
ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN...RESPLENDENT SUNSHINE IS BEING FELT WITH
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY CLIMBING THROUGH THE LOWER TO MID 60S ALONG WITH
A FRESH TO STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND RANGING BETWEEN 15 AND 25
MPH. MEANWHILE...THE KAMX RADAR IS NOT DETECTING ANY PRECIPITATION
ECHOES IN OUR REGION. SURFACE WISE...A COLD FRONT LIES FROM THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO ACROSS EAST CENTRAL CUBA...WITH A LENGTHY RIDGE
EXTENDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA. THE PRESSURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS IS
RESULTING IN NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF
AROUND 25 KNOTS. OTHERWISE...OUR MORNING SOUNDING REVEALS EXTREMELY
SCANT MOISTURE (PWAT .26 INCHES) WITHIN A BACKING NORTH...TO WEST
NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY REACHING WELL UP INTO THE TROPOSPHERE.
TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED 5 TO 9 DEGREES C BELOW 900 MB OVER THE LAST
24 HOURS.

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...
WITH A STRENGTHENING...DEEP LAYERED ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER
EASTERN OLD MEXICO MOVING EASTWARD...AND A SHARP RIDGE REACHING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO OUR AREA...VERY DRY AIR
WILL PERSIST. DESPITE GOLDEN SUNSHINE...MODERATE TO FRESH
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 70 DEGREES WHICH
WILL BE ABOUT 7 TO 9 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SINCE THE CURRENT
FORECAST HANDLES THE SITUATION WELL...NO ADJUSTMENT IS PLANNED.

&&

.MARINE...
DESPITE A BRIEF SLACKENING OF THE FRESH TO STRONG NORTH WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON...ANOTHER MINOR WIND SURGE WILL OVERSPREAD OUR ENTIRE
MARINE DISTRICT TONIGHT. HENCE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS.

&&


.AVIATION...
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT BOTH THE EYW AND MTH TERMINALS. SKIES WILL EITHER BE
CLEAR OR HAVE A HIGH CIRRUS DECK. MAIN CONCERN FOR AVIATORS IS A
CROSSWIND OF 20 TO 25 KTS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
DUE TO AN UNEXPECTED OUTAGE...THE KBYX RADAR WILL BE
DOWN FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE GREAT NEWS IS
THAT WILL BE NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN OUR REGION FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL KEYS WATERS
     GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL.......APA
AVIATION/NOWCASTS........................EV
DATA ACQUISITION.........................SC

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 271143 AAA
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
643 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.AVIATION...
HIGH CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS THIS MORNING...AND
THERE WILL BE NO CHANCE OF CLOUDS AFFECTING AVIATION TODAY. NORTHERLY CROSSWINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT BOTH TERMINALS. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL BETWEEN
27/20Z AND 28/02Z...PICKING UP AFTERWARDS. NORTHERLY 20 TO 27 KNOTS WINDS
ARE EXPECTED UP TO 5 KFT THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.

&&

$$

AVIATION...KN

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 271143 AAA
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
643 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.AVIATION...
HIGH CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS THIS MORNING...AND
THERE WILL BE NO CHANCE OF CLOUDS AFFECTING AVIATION TODAY. NORTHERLY CROSSWINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT BOTH TERMINALS. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL BETWEEN
27/20Z AND 28/02Z...PICKING UP AFTERWARDS. NORTHERLY 20 TO 27 KNOTS WINDS
ARE EXPECTED UP TO 5 KFT THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.

&&

$$

AVIATION...KN

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 270857
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
357 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE KEYS WITH COOL NORTHERLIES AND CLEARING SKIES IN WAKE OF
YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL THIS
MORNING...AND ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER 60S...AND PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER KEYS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWLY
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO...RESPONSIBLE FOR A RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...IS IN THE
PROCESS OF CONSOLIDATING WITH ANOTHER HIGH SPREADING DOWN THE PLAINS.
MEANWHILE...A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS SHIFTING QUICKLY SOUTHWARD
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA.

FORECAST - THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS AFTERNOON...AND LOSE ALL FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS EXCEPT FOR
ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR...AS IT IS BRIDGED AND ABSORBED BY THE
CONSOLIDATING HIGH COMPLEX CENTERED OVER THE MID WEST AND GULF OF
MEXICO. WINDS WILL LULL FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING...THE COMBINED EFFECT OF THE REINFORCING FRONT AND DAY TIME
WARMING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL AND TEMPERATURES
WILL STRUGGLE TO NUDGE PAST 70 DEGREES...WHILE DEW POINTS MIX DOWN
INTO THE MID 40S. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ACCELERATE TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE UNITED STATES AND GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO
CONSOLIDATE AND SHIFT EASTWARD. THE WINDS WILL BE AUGMENTED BY COOL
AIR DRAINAGE OFF THE PENINSULA...AND THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN
THE DIRECT LEE OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW ALONG
WITH THE FRESH MASS OF COOL AIR WILL FLOW INTO THE KEYS...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL TAKE ANOTHER STEP DOWNWARDS...WITH THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S EXPERIENCED IN THE UPPER KEYS.

WINDS WILL AGAIN LULL IN THE AFTERNOON AS SOUTH FLORIDA WARMS. THE
COOL DOME OF AIR...MUCH COOLER NEARSHORE WATER TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP
DAY TIME HIGHS BELOW 70 ON FRIDAY. ALSO...WINDS WILL BEGIN TIPPING
NORTHEASTERLY AS THE HIGH COMPLEX CONTINUES SPREADING EASTWARD INTO
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. GRADUAL MODERATION IN TEMPERATURE WILL
BEGIN AS THE WIND TRAJECTORY BECOMES INCREASINGLY MARITIME AND WARMER
IN NATURE. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND POPS CAN BE EXPECTED BY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR ALL KEYS WATERS TODAY
INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONSOLIDATES OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES AND GULF OF MEXICO. WITH THAT SAID...WINDS WILL LULL THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING OVER WATERS NEAR AND IN THE LEE OF SOUTH
FLORIDA...AND THE SCA MAY BE BRIEFLY LOWERED FOR SOME WATERS. WINDS
WILL SETTLE DOWN A BIT FURTHER LATER ON FRIDAY. THEREAFTER...THE HIGH
WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC...AND BECOME CENTERED CLOSER
TO THE ISLAND CHAIN...AND FRESH EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND CLEAR OUR AREA
THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH THEY HAVE NOT BEEN AFFECTING THE KEY WEST
AND MARATHON TERMINALS. NORTHERLY CROSSWINDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
BOTH TERMINALS TODAY...WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF REDUCTION BETWEEN 27/20Z AND
28/02Z...PICKING UP AFTERWARDS. NORTHERLY 20 TO 27 KNOTS WINDS ARE
EXPECTED UP TO 050 THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE...NOVEMBER 27...IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...
IN 1903...THE DAILY RECORD COLD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 64F WAS
RECORDED. AND IN 1949...THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 54F WAS
RECORDED. TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.PRELIM POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  71  58  69  65 / 0 0 0 0
MARATHON  70  55  69  64 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL KEYS WATERS
     GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 270857
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
357 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE KEYS WITH COOL NORTHERLIES AND CLEARING SKIES IN WAKE OF
YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL THIS
MORNING...AND ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER 60S...AND PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER KEYS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWLY
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO...RESPONSIBLE FOR A RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...IS IN THE
PROCESS OF CONSOLIDATING WITH ANOTHER HIGH SPREADING DOWN THE PLAINS.
MEANWHILE...A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS SHIFTING QUICKLY SOUTHWARD
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA.

FORECAST - THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS AFTERNOON...AND LOSE ALL FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS EXCEPT FOR
ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR...AS IT IS BRIDGED AND ABSORBED BY THE
CONSOLIDATING HIGH COMPLEX CENTERED OVER THE MID WEST AND GULF OF
MEXICO. WINDS WILL LULL FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING...THE COMBINED EFFECT OF THE REINFORCING FRONT AND DAY TIME
WARMING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL AND TEMPERATURES
WILL STRUGGLE TO NUDGE PAST 70 DEGREES...WHILE DEW POINTS MIX DOWN
INTO THE MID 40S. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ACCELERATE TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE UNITED STATES AND GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO
CONSOLIDATE AND SHIFT EASTWARD. THE WINDS WILL BE AUGMENTED BY COOL
AIR DRAINAGE OFF THE PENINSULA...AND THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN
THE DIRECT LEE OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW ALONG
WITH THE FRESH MASS OF COOL AIR WILL FLOW INTO THE KEYS...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL TAKE ANOTHER STEP DOWNWARDS...WITH THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S EXPERIENCED IN THE UPPER KEYS.

WINDS WILL AGAIN LULL IN THE AFTERNOON AS SOUTH FLORIDA WARMS. THE
COOL DOME OF AIR...MUCH COOLER NEARSHORE WATER TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP
DAY TIME HIGHS BELOW 70 ON FRIDAY. ALSO...WINDS WILL BEGIN TIPPING
NORTHEASTERLY AS THE HIGH COMPLEX CONTINUES SPREADING EASTWARD INTO
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. GRADUAL MODERATION IN TEMPERATURE WILL
BEGIN AS THE WIND TRAJECTORY BECOMES INCREASINGLY MARITIME AND WARMER
IN NATURE. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND POPS CAN BE EXPECTED BY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR ALL KEYS WATERS TODAY
INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONSOLIDATES OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES AND GULF OF MEXICO. WITH THAT SAID...WINDS WILL LULL THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING OVER WATERS NEAR AND IN THE LEE OF SOUTH
FLORIDA...AND THE SCA MAY BE BRIEFLY LOWERED FOR SOME WATERS. WINDS
WILL SETTLE DOWN A BIT FURTHER LATER ON FRIDAY. THEREAFTER...THE HIGH
WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC...AND BECOME CENTERED CLOSER
TO THE ISLAND CHAIN...AND FRESH EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND CLEAR OUR AREA
THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH THEY HAVE NOT BEEN AFFECTING THE KEY WEST
AND MARATHON TERMINALS. NORTHERLY CROSSWINDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
BOTH TERMINALS TODAY...WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF REDUCTION BETWEEN 27/20Z AND
28/02Z...PICKING UP AFTERWARDS. NORTHERLY 20 TO 27 KNOTS WINDS ARE
EXPECTED UP TO 050 THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE...NOVEMBER 27...IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...
IN 1903...THE DAILY RECORD COLD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 64F WAS
RECORDED. AND IN 1949...THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 54F WAS
RECORDED. TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.PRELIM POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  71  58  69  65 / 0 0 0 0
MARATHON  70  55  69  64 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL KEYS WATERS
     GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 270227
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
927 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE LOWER CLOUD OVERCAST HAS DEPARTED WHILE MID ALTITUDE SCATTERED
CLOUD COVERAGE REMAINS. COOL AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS NEAR 20 MPH AND FREQUENT GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH. A FEW
SPRINKLES CONTINUES OVER THE STRAITS OFFSHORE THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
KEYS AT THE PRESENT TIME. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 1027 MB WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS REMAINS TO THE NORTHWEST...HOWEVER WITH DEWPOINTS HAVING
PLUMMETED INTO THE MID 40S...THE SCATTERED CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES ARE
ALL THE STRONG JET TO THE NORTH CAN SUPPORT.

THE EVENING SOUNDING INDICATED MODIFIED CONTINENTAL COLD AIR DEPTH
OVER 4000 FEET THICK AT THE PRESENT TIME.

.SHORT TERM...
A MINOR PUBLIC FORECAST UPDATE IS PENDING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE
STEADY SCATTERED ALTOCUMULUS COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...WITH COLD AIR
SURGING SOUTH FROM THE MAINLAND IN THE PREDAWN HOURS. WHILE WINDS
OVER THE KEYS HAVE SETTLED TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 20 MPH AT
PRESENT...SOME INCREASE CAN BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ALONG THE GULF
SHORES OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. A NORTHERLY WIND SURGE DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS IS EXPECTED PRIMARILY OVER THE
NEARSHORE GULF AND FLORIDA BAY WATERS. SOME DAMPENING OF THE WINDS IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY EVENING ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF AND BAY
WATERS...BEFORE INCREASING BRIEFLY TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING
REINFORCED ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...FRESH TO STRONG EAST
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND AND WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
...26/00Z TAF ISSUANCE... NOW THAT CIGS HAVE RISEN ABOVE THE MVFR
CATEGORY...CONTINUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ISLANDS... AS
BY 12Z...MODEL SOUNDING SHOW DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN. NORTHERLY CROSSWINDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE ISLAND
RUNWAYS MAKING APPROACH AND DEPARTURE ROUTES TROUBLESOME. VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR SHOULD BE MINIMAL HOWEVER...WITH NORTHERLY 23 TO 27 KNOT
WINDS EXPECTED UP TO 5KFT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........JR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....MSB
DATA COLLECTION.......MP

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 270227
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
927 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE LOWER CLOUD OVERCAST HAS DEPARTED WHILE MID ALTITUDE SCATTERED
CLOUD COVERAGE REMAINS. COOL AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS NEAR 20 MPH AND FREQUENT GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH. A FEW
SPRINKLES CONTINUES OVER THE STRAITS OFFSHORE THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
KEYS AT THE PRESENT TIME. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 1027 MB WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS REMAINS TO THE NORTHWEST...HOWEVER WITH DEWPOINTS HAVING
PLUMMETED INTO THE MID 40S...THE SCATTERED CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES ARE
ALL THE STRONG JET TO THE NORTH CAN SUPPORT.

THE EVENING SOUNDING INDICATED MODIFIED CONTINENTAL COLD AIR DEPTH
OVER 4000 FEET THICK AT THE PRESENT TIME.

.SHORT TERM...
A MINOR PUBLIC FORECAST UPDATE IS PENDING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE
STEADY SCATTERED ALTOCUMULUS COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...WITH COLD AIR
SURGING SOUTH FROM THE MAINLAND IN THE PREDAWN HOURS. WHILE WINDS
OVER THE KEYS HAVE SETTLED TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 20 MPH AT
PRESENT...SOME INCREASE CAN BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ALONG THE GULF
SHORES OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. A NORTHERLY WIND SURGE DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS IS EXPECTED PRIMARILY OVER THE
NEARSHORE GULF AND FLORIDA BAY WATERS. SOME DAMPENING OF THE WINDS IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY EVENING ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF AND BAY
WATERS...BEFORE INCREASING BRIEFLY TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING
REINFORCED ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...FRESH TO STRONG EAST
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND AND WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
...26/00Z TAF ISSUANCE... NOW THAT CIGS HAVE RISEN ABOVE THE MVFR
CATEGORY...CONTINUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ISLANDS... AS
BY 12Z...MODEL SOUNDING SHOW DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN. NORTHERLY CROSSWINDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE ISLAND
RUNWAYS MAKING APPROACH AND DEPARTURE ROUTES TROUBLESOME. VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR SHOULD BE MINIMAL HOWEVER...WITH NORTHERLY 23 TO 27 KNOT
WINDS EXPECTED UP TO 5KFT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........JR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....MSB
DATA COLLECTION.......MP

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 261944
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
242 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES
HOVERING AROUND 70 DEGREES ALONG WITH NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS OF 20
TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. LOCAL RADARS ARE NOT DETECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN OUR ENTIRE COUNTY WARNING AREA.
SURFACE WISE...LOW PRESSURE (1001 MB) IS DEEPENING JUST OFFSHORE OF
THE VIRGINIA COAST...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT DRAPED OFFSHORE OF THE
ENTIRE FLORIDA EAST COAST TO NEAR ANDROS ISLAND. MEANWHILE...A
FORMIDABLE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE (1026 MB) IS CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH A RIDGE POKING ACROSS THE SUNSHINE
STATE. ACROSS OUR MARINE DISTRICT...NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS RANGE
BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
A DEEP LAYERED ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OLD MEXICO WILL STRENGTHEN AND
MIGRATE EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING
AND HOLDING ACROSS OUR REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL
ENSURE LARGE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN MOISTURE LIMITED TO BELOW A STABLE LAYER BELOW 850 MB THIS
WEEKEND. SUBSEQUENTLY...PRECIPITATION WILL BE LEFT OUT UNTIL DIME
POPS ARE INTRODUCED ON SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE REINFORCED BY
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE APPRECIABLY THIS
WEEKEND AS WINDS TURN EASTERLY.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES AND GULF COAST REGION...RESULTING IN BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS. WITH OUR AREA LYING ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL BE UNDERCUT
BY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW A ISOTHERMAL/INVERSION LAYER
OSCILLATING BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB. GIVEN FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST
TO EAST WINDS BELOW THE STABLE LAYER...GOOD MOISTURE FLUX WILL
PROMPT ISOLATED POPS TO BE RETAINED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR 80 WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY NEAR 70 DEGREES.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE A BRIEF SLACKENING
OCCURS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. BY
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER MODEST WIND SURGE WILL OVERSPREAD MOST
OF THE KEYS COASTAL WATERS INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE
ABATING SOMEWHAT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...FRESH TO STRONG
MOSTLY EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND AND WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 27/18Z...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BRIEFLY AT THE KEY WEST
AND MARATHON TERMINALS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...THEN IFR. CAUTION
SHOULD BE TAKEN DUE TO A NORTH CROSSWIND 18 TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  62  70  60  69 / 00 00 00 00
MARATHON  60  69  58  68 / 00 00 00 00

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL KEYS WATERS
     GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/AVIATION...APA



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000
FXUS62 KKEY 261944
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
242 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES
HOVERING AROUND 70 DEGREES ALONG WITH NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS OF 20
TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. LOCAL RADARS ARE NOT DETECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN OUR ENTIRE COUNTY WARNING AREA.
SURFACE WISE...LOW PRESSURE (1001 MB) IS DEEPENING JUST OFFSHORE OF
THE VIRGINIA COAST...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT DRAPED OFFSHORE OF THE
ENTIRE FLORIDA EAST COAST TO NEAR ANDROS ISLAND. MEANWHILE...A
FORMIDABLE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE (1026 MB) IS CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH A RIDGE POKING ACROSS THE SUNSHINE
STATE. ACROSS OUR MARINE DISTRICT...NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS RANGE
BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
A DEEP LAYERED ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OLD MEXICO WILL STRENGTHEN AND
MIGRATE EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING
AND HOLDING ACROSS OUR REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL
ENSURE LARGE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN MOISTURE LIMITED TO BELOW A STABLE LAYER BELOW 850 MB THIS
WEEKEND. SUBSEQUENTLY...PRECIPITATION WILL BE LEFT OUT UNTIL DIME
POPS ARE INTRODUCED ON SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE REINFORCED BY
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE APPRECIABLY THIS
WEEKEND AS WINDS TURN EASTERLY.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES AND GULF COAST REGION...RESULTING IN BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS. WITH OUR AREA LYING ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL BE UNDERCUT
BY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW A ISOTHERMAL/INVERSION LAYER
OSCILLATING BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB. GIVEN FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST
TO EAST WINDS BELOW THE STABLE LAYER...GOOD MOISTURE FLUX WILL
PROMPT ISOLATED POPS TO BE RETAINED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR 80 WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY NEAR 70 DEGREES.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE A BRIEF SLACKENING
OCCURS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. BY
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER MODEST WIND SURGE WILL OVERSPREAD MOST
OF THE KEYS COASTAL WATERS INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE
ABATING SOMEWHAT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...FRESH TO STRONG
MOSTLY EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND AND WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 27/18Z...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BRIEFLY AT THE KEY WEST
AND MARATHON TERMINALS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...THEN IFR. CAUTION
SHOULD BE TAKEN DUE TO A NORTH CROSSWIND 18 TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  62  70  60  69 / 00 00 00 00
MARATHON  60  69  58  68 / 00 00 00 00

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL KEYS WATERS
     GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/AVIATION...APA



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000
FXUS62 KKEY 261656
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1155 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES
PREDOMINATELY IN THE LOWER 70S ALONG WITH NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
OF 20 TO 25 MPH. MEANWHILE...LOCAL RADARS ARE DETECTING A
DECAYING BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG
COLD...ALIGNED FROM 20 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER KEYS...TO 40 TO 50
NM SOUTHEAST OF THE MIDDLE KEYS...MOVING EASTWARD NEAR 20 KNOTS.
SURFACE WISE...A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE (1004 MB) IS LOCATED
JUST OFFSHORE OF THE VIRGINIA COAST...WITH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE (1027 MB) IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO REACHING EASTWARD
INTO THE SUNSHINE STATE. THE PRESSURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS IS RESULTING IN NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KNOTS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...
BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG COLD FRONT...A LOW LEVEL
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW MUCH DRIER AIR TO FILTER DOWN THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND INTO OUR REGION. HENCE...OUTSIDE OF A FEW SPRINKLES
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS. THE COMBINATION OF CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER...FRESH TO
STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS AND MODERATE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES PREDOMINATELY IN THE LOWER 70S BEFORE FALLING INTO
THE 60S DURING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WITH THAT SAID...HAVE
UPDATED THE PUBLIC ZONE FORECAST TO REMOVE POPS AND TRANSITIONAL
WORDING...BUT KEPT NICKLE POPS IN THE GRIDS.

&&

.MARINE...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR OUR ENTIRE MARINE DISTRICT BY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 30 KNOTS. THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE FELT
FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO BEYOND DRY TORTUGAS AND
SOUTHWARD FOR OVER 60 NM...AS WELL AS THE OUTER WATERS OF MAINLAND
MONROE. SUBSEQUENTLY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL
KEYS COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...
UNTIL 12Z/27TH...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN AT THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON TERMINALS UNTIL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN IFR. THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR AVIATORS WILL BE A NORTH CROSSWIND OF 18 TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL KEYS WATERS
     GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL/AVIATION/NOWCASTS...APA
DATA ACQUISITION.....................SC

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 261200
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
700 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.AVIATION...
DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS MORNING...WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING
TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AND GUSTY TO 25 TO 30
KNOTS. TEMPORARY MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS
AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THE MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED AT AROUND 050 AFT 27/00Z.

&&

$$

AVIATION...KN

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 261200
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
700 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.AVIATION...
DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS MORNING...WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING
TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AND GUSTY TO 25 TO 30
KNOTS. TEMPORARY MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS
AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THE MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED AT AROUND 050 AFT 27/00Z.

&&

$$

AVIATION...KN

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 260907
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
407 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - AN AMPLIFIED MID LATITUDE TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
UNITED STATES AND REACHES DEEP INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE
TROUGHING IS TAKING PLACE IN THE EXTREME EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH
A LOW DEEPENING JUST OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. A SWATH OF FAST MOVING
SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. LOCAL WINDS HAVE TRENDED UPWARDS
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND ARE NOW MODERATE OUT OF THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST. THIS FLOW IS KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL NEAR 80
DEGREES...WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S. FURTHER TO
THE NORTHWEST...A COLD FRONT IS GAINING SPEED AS IT MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. BUOY 42003 HAS BEEN REPORTING SUSTAINED NORTH
NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 30 KNOTS...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 60S.

FORECAST - THE TROUGHING IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL
CONSOLIDATE INTO THE DEEPENING LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS EASTWARD. THIS LOW WILL RACE OFF NORTHEASTWARD
TODAY...MOVING PAST MAINE BY TOMORROW MORNING. THE SWATH OF SHOWERS
IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL FINALLY BE FLUSHED
SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE KEYS AREA TODAY.
THE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RACE AHEAD OF THE LOWER LEVEL
TROUGH/FRONT...AS A RESULT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO MAINTAIN DEEP
CONVECTION. IT IS LIKELY HOWEVER THAT AT LEAST A SPELL OF SHOWERS
WILL IMPACT MOST ISLAND LOCATIONS BEFORE THE COLD FRONT BLASTS
THROUGH. AFTER DAY TIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S EARLY...TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP CONSIDERABLY AS WINDS FRESHEN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH
BY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE DAY TO END WITH TEMPERATURES DESCENDING
THROUGH THE UPPER 60S AND DEW POINTS FALLING NEAR 60.

STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS A HIGH CELL MOVES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES WITH
TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 60 IN THE LOWER
KEYS AND 55 TO 60 IN THE UPPER KEYS. WINDS WILL LULL THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS SOUTH FLORIDA WARMS...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE INTO THE 70S. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER HIGH CELL SETS UP OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL REINFORCE THE ALREADY COOL AIR MASS
MOVING INTO THE KEYS...AND LOWS WILL BE A BIT LOWER IN THE 50S.

THE HIGH CELL OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS
IT SHIFTS OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. AS A RESULT...LOCAL WINDS WILL
MODERATE AND STEADILY VEER...BECOMING NORTHEAST TO EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL GRADUALLY TREND UPWARDS UNDER
THE INCREASINGLY WARMER MARITIME TRAJECTORY. THE STILL FAST EASTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS BY LATE THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS THEY VEER WESTERLY...THEN SHIFT
NORTHWEST TO NORTH BECOMING STRONG AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS KEYS WATERS. FRESH TO STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL
THEN PREVAIL ACROSS KEYS WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A BRIEF
LULL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE REQUIRED FOR
MOST KEYS WATERS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC AND DRAW NEARER THE ISLAND CHAIN. THE
STRONGER BREEZES WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS AS WINDS
TURN MORE EASTERLY THIS WEEKEND. A MIX OF CAUTIONS AND ADVISORIES
WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THE DURATION OF THE MARINE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS
WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL RESULT IN WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO AROUND
25 KNOTS AND GUSTY AROUND 26/11Z. TEMPORARY MVFR CEILINGS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THE
MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED AT
AROUND 050 AFT 27/00Z.

&&

.PRELIM POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  76  62  70  60 / 60 0 0 0
MARATHON  76  60  69  58 / 60 0 0 0

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL KEYS WATERS
     GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 260907
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
407 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - AN AMPLIFIED MID LATITUDE TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
UNITED STATES AND REACHES DEEP INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE
TROUGHING IS TAKING PLACE IN THE EXTREME EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH
A LOW DEEPENING JUST OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. A SWATH OF FAST MOVING
SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. LOCAL WINDS HAVE TRENDED UPWARDS
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND ARE NOW MODERATE OUT OF THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST. THIS FLOW IS KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL NEAR 80
DEGREES...WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S. FURTHER TO
THE NORTHWEST...A COLD FRONT IS GAINING SPEED AS IT MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. BUOY 42003 HAS BEEN REPORTING SUSTAINED NORTH
NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 30 KNOTS...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 60S.

FORECAST - THE TROUGHING IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL
CONSOLIDATE INTO THE DEEPENING LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS EASTWARD. THIS LOW WILL RACE OFF NORTHEASTWARD
TODAY...MOVING PAST MAINE BY TOMORROW MORNING. THE SWATH OF SHOWERS
IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL FINALLY BE FLUSHED
SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE KEYS AREA TODAY.
THE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RACE AHEAD OF THE LOWER LEVEL
TROUGH/FRONT...AS A RESULT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO MAINTAIN DEEP
CONVECTION. IT IS LIKELY HOWEVER THAT AT LEAST A SPELL OF SHOWERS
WILL IMPACT MOST ISLAND LOCATIONS BEFORE THE COLD FRONT BLASTS
THROUGH. AFTER DAY TIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S EARLY...TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP CONSIDERABLY AS WINDS FRESHEN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH
BY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE DAY TO END WITH TEMPERATURES DESCENDING
THROUGH THE UPPER 60S AND DEW POINTS FALLING NEAR 60.

STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS A HIGH CELL MOVES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES WITH
TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 60 IN THE LOWER
KEYS AND 55 TO 60 IN THE UPPER KEYS. WINDS WILL LULL THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS SOUTH FLORIDA WARMS...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE INTO THE 70S. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER HIGH CELL SETS UP OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL REINFORCE THE ALREADY COOL AIR MASS
MOVING INTO THE KEYS...AND LOWS WILL BE A BIT LOWER IN THE 50S.

THE HIGH CELL OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS
IT SHIFTS OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. AS A RESULT...LOCAL WINDS WILL
MODERATE AND STEADILY VEER...BECOMING NORTHEAST TO EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL GRADUALLY TREND UPWARDS UNDER
THE INCREASINGLY WARMER MARITIME TRAJECTORY. THE STILL FAST EASTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS BY LATE THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS THEY VEER WESTERLY...THEN SHIFT
NORTHWEST TO NORTH BECOMING STRONG AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS KEYS WATERS. FRESH TO STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL
THEN PREVAIL ACROSS KEYS WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A BRIEF
LULL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE REQUIRED FOR
MOST KEYS WATERS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC AND DRAW NEARER THE ISLAND CHAIN. THE
STRONGER BREEZES WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS AS WINDS
TURN MORE EASTERLY THIS WEEKEND. A MIX OF CAUTIONS AND ADVISORIES
WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THE DURATION OF THE MARINE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS
WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL RESULT IN WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO AROUND
25 KNOTS AND GUSTY AROUND 26/11Z. TEMPORARY MVFR CEILINGS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THE
MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED AT
AROUND 050 AFT 27/00Z.

&&

.PRELIM POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  76  62  70  60 / 60 0 0 0
MARATHON  76  60  69  58 / 60 0 0 0

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL KEYS WATERS
     GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 260318
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1018 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SKIES ARE QUICKLY CLOUDING UP ACROSS THE KEYS...AS KBYX RADAR IS ALSO
SHOWING A BLOSSOMING OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE KEYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS. SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE GRADUALLY
DECREASED TO 5 TO 10 KNOT ACROSS THE KEYS IN THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AND ARE EVER SO SLIGHTLY ARE BEGINNING TO TURN SOUTHERLY IN
THEIR CLOCKING MOTION AHEAD OF OUR NEXT FRONT. ALL MODELS SUGGEST THE
PRESENCE OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO AT THIS TIME. DATA IS SPARSE IN THAT AREA HOWEVER...AND THE
SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF THIS LOW IS DUBIOUS AT BEST. CURRENT WIND
FIELDS PRESUMABLY ARE OBSCURED BY SHOWER OUTFLOWS...AND MSLP SENSORS
IN THE AREA ARE ERRATIC BUT THE APPEARANCE IS MORE INDICATIVE OF A
SLOWLY DEVELOPING LOW OR PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. A PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS MOSTLY TRAINING TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE PORT CHARLOTTE AND SARASOTA COASTLINE...AND EXTENDS SOUTHWEST
INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. WARM SECTOR FLOW IS STILL KEEPING
THE KEYS SEASONALLY WARM NEAR 80...AND MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND
THE MID 70S. EVENING SOUNDING SHOWED AN OVERALL PWAT VALUE OF 2.03
INCHES...WITH MOST MOISTURE FOUND BELOW 600 MB... AND SIGNIFICANT
VEERING IN THE LOWEST LAYERS...GIVING RAPIDLY TO UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW
ABOVE 950 MB OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.

.SHORT TERM...
THE MOTION OF THIS QUICKLY-DEVELOPING LOW SHOULD SEE IT RAPIDLY
TRANSIT CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND EJECTED OFF THE JACKSONVILLE
COASTLINE OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY 06-09Z. REGARDLESS OF THE
INTENSITY OF THIS SURFACE LOW OR ITS MOTION...THERE IS VERY LITTLE
DOUBT THAT A ROBUST COLD FRONT WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT...THEN WILL
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. THIS FRONT IS SET TO TRANSIT
DOWN THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA AND APPROACH THE KEYS BY MID MORNING
WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE...AND INSTABILITY WITH SOME MODEST ISOTROPIC
LIFTING ARE ALL EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT OVERNIGHT.
DURING ITS PASSAGE ACROSS THE KEYS...MAINLY BETWEEN 14Z AND
16Z...EXPECT THAT ITS RAPID MOTION WILL INSPIRE SOME SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO FORM ALONG ITS LEADING EDGE. TOTAL COVERAGE
WILL BE BE ENTIRELY DEPENDENT UPON THE INTEGRITY OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND CONFLUENCE FIELDS HOWEVER. A CASE CAN BE MADE FOR BOTH
LIKELY SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TOMORROW...BUT WILL HOLD OFF
ON UPDATING THE FORECAST PENDING FURTHER CLARITY OVERNIGHT. AS IT
STANDS...ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS WERE REQUIRED FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PUBLIC FORECAST AND GRIDS...WITH NO CHANGES REQUIRED FOR PERIODS
THEREAFTER.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE 5 TO 15 KNOTS ACROSS THE KEYS...WITH THE
EARLIEST WIND INCREASES EXPECTED OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE GULF
WATERS AFTER 9Z. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE DIFFERENT
THAN THE PREVIOUS FRONTS THIS SEASON...WITH A RAPID SHIFT AND
INCREASE IN WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN MAINLY BETWEEN 11
AND 16Z. SEAS SHOULD RESPOND IN-KIND TO THE WINDS...BUILDING RAPIDLY
TO AROUND 10 FEET IN THE DEEPEST PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF BY
15Z...WITH THESE SWELLS SPREADING ACROSS THE STRAITS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. A PROLONGED PERIOD FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THIS FRONT...BRINGING SCA CONDITIONS TO THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS FROM 5 TO 10
KNOTS...BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE KEYS WEDNESDAY MORNING AFTER DAYBREAK. THIS WILL RESULT
IN WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS AND
GUSTY. TEMPORARY MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE LIKELY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL
HOURS AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE
TERMINAL FORECASTS WITH TEMPO GROUPS AT BOTH TERMINALS. THE MVFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD ABATE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
VFR CEILINGS AROUND FL050 PREVAILING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........MSB
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....DEVANAS
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 260318
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1018 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SKIES ARE QUICKLY CLOUDING UP ACROSS THE KEYS...AS KBYX RADAR IS ALSO
SHOWING A BLOSSOMING OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE KEYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS. SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE GRADUALLY
DECREASED TO 5 TO 10 KNOT ACROSS THE KEYS IN THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AND ARE EVER SO SLIGHTLY ARE BEGINNING TO TURN SOUTHERLY IN
THEIR CLOCKING MOTION AHEAD OF OUR NEXT FRONT. ALL MODELS SUGGEST THE
PRESENCE OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO AT THIS TIME. DATA IS SPARSE IN THAT AREA HOWEVER...AND THE
SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF THIS LOW IS DUBIOUS AT BEST. CURRENT WIND
FIELDS PRESUMABLY ARE OBSCURED BY SHOWER OUTFLOWS...AND MSLP SENSORS
IN THE AREA ARE ERRATIC BUT THE APPEARANCE IS MORE INDICATIVE OF A
SLOWLY DEVELOPING LOW OR PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. A PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS MOSTLY TRAINING TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE PORT CHARLOTTE AND SARASOTA COASTLINE...AND EXTENDS SOUTHWEST
INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. WARM SECTOR FLOW IS STILL KEEPING
THE KEYS SEASONALLY WARM NEAR 80...AND MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND
THE MID 70S. EVENING SOUNDING SHOWED AN OVERALL PWAT VALUE OF 2.03
INCHES...WITH MOST MOISTURE FOUND BELOW 600 MB... AND SIGNIFICANT
VEERING IN THE LOWEST LAYERS...GIVING RAPIDLY TO UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW
ABOVE 950 MB OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.

.SHORT TERM...
THE MOTION OF THIS QUICKLY-DEVELOPING LOW SHOULD SEE IT RAPIDLY
TRANSIT CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND EJECTED OFF THE JACKSONVILLE
COASTLINE OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY 06-09Z. REGARDLESS OF THE
INTENSITY OF THIS SURFACE LOW OR ITS MOTION...THERE IS VERY LITTLE
DOUBT THAT A ROBUST COLD FRONT WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT...THEN WILL
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. THIS FRONT IS SET TO TRANSIT
DOWN THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA AND APPROACH THE KEYS BY MID MORNING
WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE...AND INSTABILITY WITH SOME MODEST ISOTROPIC
LIFTING ARE ALL EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT OVERNIGHT.
DURING ITS PASSAGE ACROSS THE KEYS...MAINLY BETWEEN 14Z AND
16Z...EXPECT THAT ITS RAPID MOTION WILL INSPIRE SOME SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO FORM ALONG ITS LEADING EDGE. TOTAL COVERAGE
WILL BE BE ENTIRELY DEPENDENT UPON THE INTEGRITY OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND CONFLUENCE FIELDS HOWEVER. A CASE CAN BE MADE FOR BOTH
LIKELY SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TOMORROW...BUT WILL HOLD OFF
ON UPDATING THE FORECAST PENDING FURTHER CLARITY OVERNIGHT. AS IT
STANDS...ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS WERE REQUIRED FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PUBLIC FORECAST AND GRIDS...WITH NO CHANGES REQUIRED FOR PERIODS
THEREAFTER.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE 5 TO 15 KNOTS ACROSS THE KEYS...WITH THE
EARLIEST WIND INCREASES EXPECTED OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE GULF
WATERS AFTER 9Z. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE DIFFERENT
THAN THE PREVIOUS FRONTS THIS SEASON...WITH A RAPID SHIFT AND
INCREASE IN WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN MAINLY BETWEEN 11
AND 16Z. SEAS SHOULD RESPOND IN-KIND TO THE WINDS...BUILDING RAPIDLY
TO AROUND 10 FEET IN THE DEEPEST PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF BY
15Z...WITH THESE SWELLS SPREADING ACROSS THE STRAITS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. A PROLONGED PERIOD FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THIS FRONT...BRINGING SCA CONDITIONS TO THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS FROM 5 TO 10
KNOTS...BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE KEYS WEDNESDAY MORNING AFTER DAYBREAK. THIS WILL RESULT
IN WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS AND
GUSTY. TEMPORARY MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE LIKELY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL
HOURS AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE
TERMINAL FORECASTS WITH TEMPO GROUPS AT BOTH TERMINALS. THE MVFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD ABATE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
VFR CEILINGS AROUND FL050 PREVAILING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........MSB
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....DEVANAS
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 252019
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
318 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S ALONG THE
ISLAND CHAIN...WHILE LOCAL RADARS ARE NOT DETECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN OUR REGION. SURFACE WISE...AN ELONGATED AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE (1011 MB) IN THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO IS ALIGNED
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED INTO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA.
MEANWHILE...A TWO PRONG WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE IS EXTENDING INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE ARCHIPELAGO OF CUBA. ACROSS OUR MARINE
DISTRICT...SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS AVERAGE NEAR 15 KNOTS EXCEPT
NEAR 10 KNOTS AT PULASKI SHOAL LIGHT.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIFT QUICKLY TO
OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE IN THE DAY. MEANWHILE...A
COLD FRONT WILL INTENSIFY AND TRACK SWIFTLY SOUTHEASTWARD AND CLEAR
OUR ENTIRE REGION BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH MID AND UPPER
LEVEL ASCENT REMAINING WELL NORTH OF OUR REGION...EXPECT A BROKEN
SWATH OF SHOWERS TO PUSH THROUGH THE ISLAND CHAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MAY
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
HOLD IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST OF TONIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN WAKE OF THE FRONT. WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH SOME MODERATION THEREAFTER.
&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES AND GULF COAST REGION...RESULTING IN BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS. GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE BELOW A STABLE LAYER NEAR 850 MB
AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...ONLY ISOLATED DIME POPS WILL BE
KEPT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 70 DEGREES.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE HOISTED FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS
ON WEDNESDAY...WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OUR ENTIRE MARINE
DISTRICT FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING EARLY IN THE MORNING. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR THE BALANCE OF THIS WEEK...WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
UNTIL 12Z/26TH...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL A MVFR ENCOUNTER
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT AFFECTS OUR AREA BETWEEN 10 AND 14Z.
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL TURN SOUTHWEST WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT...WINDS WILL
TURN NORTHWEST TO NORTH BETWEEN 12 AND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO
24 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  74  75  62  70 / 30 50 00 00
MARATHON  74  76  60  69 / 30 50 00 00

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/AVIATION...APA



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000
FXUS62 KKEY 252019
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
318 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S ALONG THE
ISLAND CHAIN...WHILE LOCAL RADARS ARE NOT DETECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN OUR REGION. SURFACE WISE...AN ELONGATED AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE (1011 MB) IN THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO IS ALIGNED
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED INTO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA.
MEANWHILE...A TWO PRONG WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE IS EXTENDING INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE ARCHIPELAGO OF CUBA. ACROSS OUR MARINE
DISTRICT...SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS AVERAGE NEAR 15 KNOTS EXCEPT
NEAR 10 KNOTS AT PULASKI SHOAL LIGHT.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIFT QUICKLY TO
OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE IN THE DAY. MEANWHILE...A
COLD FRONT WILL INTENSIFY AND TRACK SWIFTLY SOUTHEASTWARD AND CLEAR
OUR ENTIRE REGION BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH MID AND UPPER
LEVEL ASCENT REMAINING WELL NORTH OF OUR REGION...EXPECT A BROKEN
SWATH OF SHOWERS TO PUSH THROUGH THE ISLAND CHAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MAY
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
HOLD IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST OF TONIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN WAKE OF THE FRONT. WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH SOME MODERATION THEREAFTER.
&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES AND GULF COAST REGION...RESULTING IN BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS. GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE BELOW A STABLE LAYER NEAR 850 MB
AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...ONLY ISOLATED DIME POPS WILL BE
KEPT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 70 DEGREES.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE HOISTED FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS
ON WEDNESDAY...WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OUR ENTIRE MARINE
DISTRICT FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING EARLY IN THE MORNING. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR THE BALANCE OF THIS WEEK...WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
UNTIL 12Z/26TH...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL A MVFR ENCOUNTER
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT AFFECTS OUR AREA BETWEEN 10 AND 14Z.
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL TURN SOUTHWEST WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT...WINDS WILL
TURN NORTHWEST TO NORTH BETWEEN 12 AND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO
24 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  74  75  62  70 / 30 50 00 00
MARATHON  74  76  60  69 / 30 50 00 00

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/AVIATION...APA



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000
FXUS62 KKEY 251523
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1020 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
EARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE PHOTOGRAPHS SHOW MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN.
MEANWHILE...LOCAL RADARS ARE NOT DETECTING ANY PRECIPITATION ECHOES
ACROSS OUR ENTIRE COUNTY WARNING AREA. SURFACE WISE...A STATIONARY
FRONT IS ALIGNED FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NORTHEASTWARD TO ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA...WITH A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE HOLDING ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA. ACROSS OUR MARINE DISTRICT...OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
MOSTLY SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS. OTHERWISE...OUR MORNING
SOUNDING REVEALS AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE (PWAT 2.22 INCHES) WITHIN
A DEEP TROPOSPHERIC SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TRAJECTORY.

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...
A DEEP LAYERED WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL REMAIN ALIGNED ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS FOR THE BALANCE OF
TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. SO DESPITE AN ABUNDANCE OF
MOISTURE...LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ALONG WITH NO LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE
WILL PRECLUDE SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY. AMPLE INSOLATION COMBINED WITH
A LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHEAST WIND WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
INTO THE MID 80S. SINCE THE PUBLIC ZONE FORECAST WAS UPDATED EARLIER
TO REMOVE POPS...NO ADDITIONAL UPDATE IS PLANNED.

&&

.MARINE...
OUR MORNING SOUNDING INDICATES SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 19 AND 14 KNOTS AT
1 AND 2 THOUSAND FEET RESPECTIVELY WHILE THE KBYX VWP SHOWS 20
KNOTS. WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO GETTING SLIGHTLY MORE ORGANIZED...EXPECT MODERATE SOUTHEAST
WINDS TO PREVAIL ON KEYS COASTAL WATERS BEFORE SLACKENING DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ON
ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...
UNTIL 00Z/26TH...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KEY WEST AND
MARATHON TERMINALS. MOSTLY SOUTHEAST WINDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS NEAR 15 KNOTS CAN BE ANTICIPATED AT THE ISLAND AIRPORTS.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL/AVIATION/NOWCASTS...APA
DATA ACQUISITION.....................SC

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 251523
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1020 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
EARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE PHOTOGRAPHS SHOW MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN.
MEANWHILE...LOCAL RADARS ARE NOT DETECTING ANY PRECIPITATION ECHOES
ACROSS OUR ENTIRE COUNTY WARNING AREA. SURFACE WISE...A STATIONARY
FRONT IS ALIGNED FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NORTHEASTWARD TO ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA...WITH A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE HOLDING ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA. ACROSS OUR MARINE DISTRICT...OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
MOSTLY SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS. OTHERWISE...OUR MORNING
SOUNDING REVEALS AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE (PWAT 2.22 INCHES) WITHIN
A DEEP TROPOSPHERIC SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TRAJECTORY.

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...
A DEEP LAYERED WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL REMAIN ALIGNED ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS FOR THE BALANCE OF
TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. SO DESPITE AN ABUNDANCE OF
MOISTURE...LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ALONG WITH NO LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE
WILL PRECLUDE SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY. AMPLE INSOLATION COMBINED WITH
A LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHEAST WIND WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
INTO THE MID 80S. SINCE THE PUBLIC ZONE FORECAST WAS UPDATED EARLIER
TO REMOVE POPS...NO ADDITIONAL UPDATE IS PLANNED.

&&

.MARINE...
OUR MORNING SOUNDING INDICATES SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 19 AND 14 KNOTS AT
1 AND 2 THOUSAND FEET RESPECTIVELY WHILE THE KBYX VWP SHOWS 20
KNOTS. WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO GETTING SLIGHTLY MORE ORGANIZED...EXPECT MODERATE SOUTHEAST
WINDS TO PREVAIL ON KEYS COASTAL WATERS BEFORE SLACKENING DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ON
ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...
UNTIL 00Z/26TH...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KEY WEST AND
MARATHON TERMINALS. MOSTLY SOUTHEAST WINDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS NEAR 15 KNOTS CAN BE ANTICIPATED AT THE ISLAND AIRPORTS.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL/AVIATION/NOWCASTS...APA
DATA ACQUISITION.....................SC

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 251202 AAA
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
702 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS
TODAY THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT. A GENTLE SOUTHEAST WIND AT BOTH TERMINALS
IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH AFT 26/00Z. A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AROUND 26/14Z...WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA
PRECEDING ITS PASSAGE AND AN INCREASE IN WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

$$

AVIATION...KN

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 251202 AAA
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
702 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS
TODAY THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT. A GENTLE SOUTHEAST WIND AT BOTH TERMINALS
IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH AFT 26/00Z. A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AROUND 26/14Z...WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA
PRECEDING ITS PASSAGE AND AN INCREASE IN WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

$$

AVIATION...KN

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 250856
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
356 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH IS SHIFTING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE KEYS AS A DEEP MID LATITUDE TROUGH IS
SUPPORTING SURFACE TROUGHING IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AHEAD
OF A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LOCALLY...WINDS ARE BEING
DRIVEN BY THE CLOSE RIDGE AXIS...KEEPING WINDS LIGHT TO GENTLE OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS FLOW IS KEEPING SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
MOISTURE WELL ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMS...WITH TEMPERATURES STILL IN
THE UPPER 70S...AND DEW POINTS TO MATCH. A SWATH OF INCREASED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONFLUENT FLOW IS NOW SITUATED WEST THROUGH
NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA...BETWEEN THE LOWER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
UNITED STATES AND GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE ATLANTIC RIDGE TO THE
EAST. AS A RESULT...SHOWER ACTIVITY IS SCOOTING NORTHWARD...WELL
WEST OF OUR AREA. PATCHES OF AC AND CIRRUS THROWN OFF BY THESE
SHOWERS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE KEYS.

FORECAST - THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA
TODAY...KEEPING WINDS LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WARM
TRAJECTORY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY. THE BEST CONFLUENCE AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA...AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY MOVING COLD FRONT. THIS
ALONG WITH RATHER WEAK SURFACE FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST VEERING TO
SOUTH IS ONE OF OUR DRIER MESOSCALE SETUPS THANKS TO CUBA. WILL
MAINTAIN JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR TODAY.

THE POWERFUL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LARGER TROUGH
ACROSS THE UNITED STATES AND GULF OF MEXICO WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY
EAST THEN NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS A
RESULT...SURFACE TROUGHING IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE DESCENDS DOWN
ROCKIES AND PLAINS. THIS WILL DRIVE THE COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO ACROSS THE KEYS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED
BY A SWATH OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. SUPPORT
ALOFT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA...AND CONVECTIVE SUPPORT WILL
HAVE TO RELY SOLELY ON LOW LEVEL MECHANISMS. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS
EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AND VEER MORE
WESTERLY...THEN SHIFT NORTHWEST TO NORTH LATER IN THE DAY...BECOMING
QUITE WINDY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE ON THESE
NORTHERLIES.

OVER THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...LARGE A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONSOLIDATE AS IT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...THEN
SPREAD INTO THE ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY CLOCK
AROUND TO NORTHEAST...THEN EAST BY LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY...ALL
THE WHILE...GRADUALLY WEAKENING. EXPECT ZERO RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE
LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE WINDS TRAJECTORY BECOMES MORE MARITIME AND
WARMER. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SLIGHT POPS WILL RETURN
BY AROUND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS
KEYS WATERS AS A RIDGE AXIS REMAINS NEAR THE ISLAND CHAIN. A COLD
FRONT WILL BLAST THROUGH THE KEYS AREA ON WEDNESDAY...AND WINDS WILL
STEADILY STRENGTHEN AND VEER WESTERLY...THEN BECOME STRONG OUT OF THE
NORTH IN WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
REQUIRED FOR ALL KEYS WATERS WEDNESDAY FOR THE INCREASING WINDS.
FRESH TO STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF WHILE VEERING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A MIX OF CAUTIONS AND
ADVISORIES WILL BE REQUIRED FOR KEYS WATERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE MARINE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A GENTLE SOUTHEAST WIND AT BOTH
TERMINALS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH AFT 26/00Z.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE...NOVEMBER 25...IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...
IN 1957...THE DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 87F WAS RECORDED. AND
IN 1970...THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 50F WAS RECORDED.
TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.PRELIM POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  83  73  74  62 / 20 30 50 -
MARATHON  86  73  76  61 / 20 30 50 -

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 250856
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
356 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH IS SHIFTING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE KEYS AS A DEEP MID LATITUDE TROUGH IS
SUPPORTING SURFACE TROUGHING IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AHEAD
OF A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LOCALLY...WINDS ARE BEING
DRIVEN BY THE CLOSE RIDGE AXIS...KEEPING WINDS LIGHT TO GENTLE OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS FLOW IS KEEPING SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
MOISTURE WELL ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMS...WITH TEMPERATURES STILL IN
THE UPPER 70S...AND DEW POINTS TO MATCH. A SWATH OF INCREASED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONFLUENT FLOW IS NOW SITUATED WEST THROUGH
NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA...BETWEEN THE LOWER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
UNITED STATES AND GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE ATLANTIC RIDGE TO THE
EAST. AS A RESULT...SHOWER ACTIVITY IS SCOOTING NORTHWARD...WELL
WEST OF OUR AREA. PATCHES OF AC AND CIRRUS THROWN OFF BY THESE
SHOWERS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE KEYS.

FORECAST - THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA
TODAY...KEEPING WINDS LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WARM
TRAJECTORY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY. THE BEST CONFLUENCE AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA...AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY MOVING COLD FRONT. THIS
ALONG WITH RATHER WEAK SURFACE FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST VEERING TO
SOUTH IS ONE OF OUR DRIER MESOSCALE SETUPS THANKS TO CUBA. WILL
MAINTAIN JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR TODAY.

THE POWERFUL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LARGER TROUGH
ACROSS THE UNITED STATES AND GULF OF MEXICO WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY
EAST THEN NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS A
RESULT...SURFACE TROUGHING IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE DESCENDS DOWN
ROCKIES AND PLAINS. THIS WILL DRIVE THE COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO ACROSS THE KEYS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED
BY A SWATH OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. SUPPORT
ALOFT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA...AND CONVECTIVE SUPPORT WILL
HAVE TO RELY SOLELY ON LOW LEVEL MECHANISMS. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS
EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AND VEER MORE
WESTERLY...THEN SHIFT NORTHWEST TO NORTH LATER IN THE DAY...BECOMING
QUITE WINDY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE ON THESE
NORTHERLIES.

OVER THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...LARGE A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONSOLIDATE AS IT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...THEN
SPREAD INTO THE ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY CLOCK
AROUND TO NORTHEAST...THEN EAST BY LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY...ALL
THE WHILE...GRADUALLY WEAKENING. EXPECT ZERO RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE
LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE WINDS TRAJECTORY BECOMES MORE MARITIME AND
WARMER. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SLIGHT POPS WILL RETURN
BY AROUND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS
KEYS WATERS AS A RIDGE AXIS REMAINS NEAR THE ISLAND CHAIN. A COLD
FRONT WILL BLAST THROUGH THE KEYS AREA ON WEDNESDAY...AND WINDS WILL
STEADILY STRENGTHEN AND VEER WESTERLY...THEN BECOME STRONG OUT OF THE
NORTH IN WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
REQUIRED FOR ALL KEYS WATERS WEDNESDAY FOR THE INCREASING WINDS.
FRESH TO STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF WHILE VEERING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A MIX OF CAUTIONS AND
ADVISORIES WILL BE REQUIRED FOR KEYS WATERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE MARINE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A GENTLE SOUTHEAST WIND AT BOTH
TERMINALS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH AFT 26/00Z.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE...NOVEMBER 25...IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...
IN 1957...THE DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 87F WAS RECORDED. AND
IN 1970...THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 50F WAS RECORDED.
TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.PRELIM POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  83  73  74  62 / 20 30 50 -
MARATHON  86  73  76  61 / 20 30 50 -

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 250326
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1026 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES ARE HOVERING NEAR 80 ACROSS THE ISLANDS...AND DEW
POINTS REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. KBYX RADAR IS SHOWING AN
INCREASING TREND IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...MOSTLY ON THE
FRINGES OF OUR SERVICE AREA...AND WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS FORMING
ON CUBAN LAND BREEZE BOUNDARIES WELL SOUTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN.
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE 5 TO 10 KNOTS OVER THE GULF AND BAYSIDE
WATERS...AND 10 TO 15 KNOTS ACROSS THE STRAITS AND HAWK CHANNEL
ZONES. EVENING KEY SOUNDING CAME IN WITH A VERY SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN PWAT VALUE UP TO 2.29 INCHES WHICH IS IN THE 99TH
PERCENTILE OF THE RANGE OF HISTORICAL NOVEMBER SOUNDINGS.

.SHORT TERM...
VERY FEW MODIFICATIONS WERE REQUIRED IN THE PUBLIC TEXT FORECASTS OR
GRIDS THIS EVENING. AN UPDATE TO THE ZFP IS BEING ISSUED TO REMOVE
TRANSITIONAL WORDING. RADAR TRENDS MAINTAIN PREVIOUS FORECAST
THINKING THAT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ONLY BE OBSERVED OVER THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. LOW LEVEL VEERING...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...AND
SURPRISINGLY HIGH CAPE VALUES AROUND 3500 J/KG BY THE EVENING
SOUNDING ALL SUPPORT THE MAINTENANCE OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS
BUT THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR SEEMED TO BE A LACK OF ATMOSPHERIC
TRIGGERS TO OVERCOME A LOW LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION AROUND 950 MB.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND NO SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN DEW
POINTS IS EXPECTED UNTIL AT LEAST LATE TUESDAY WHEN WINDS BEGIN TO
CLOCK AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. NO
CHANGES WERE MADE BEYOND THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY BENIGN OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AS WINDS GENERALLY CLOCK TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM ON EARLY WEDNESDAY. A HIGHER CHANNEL OF WINDS IS
FORECAST TO BE FORMING OVERNIGHT DUE TO ISALLOBARIC INFLOW...
PARTICULARLY IN THE EASTERN STRAITS. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THESE
TYPES OF EVENT...HAVE CHOSEN TO FORECAST AN INCREASE OF NEAR 15 KNOTS
FOR ALL STRAITS OF FLORIDA ZONES...BUT THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD THE
WESTERN STRAITS MAY REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE
STILL BEING CONSISTENTLY FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME THROUGH AT LEST FRIDAY

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS LATE
THIS EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY. AMENDMENTS
MAY BE NECESSARY LATER IF POCKETS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS HOLD TOGETHER
THROUGH THE STRAITS WHILE MOVING NORTHWARD. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP VFR
ADVERTISED THOUGH. EXPECT A GENTLE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND AT BOTH
TERMINALS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1977...2.59 INCHES OF RAIN
WAS RECORDED IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RAINFALL RECORD FOR
NOVEMBER 24 IN KEY WEST. RAINFALL RECORDS IN KEY WEST DATE BACK TO
1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........MSB
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....04
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 250326
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1026 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES ARE HOVERING NEAR 80 ACROSS THE ISLANDS...AND DEW
POINTS REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. KBYX RADAR IS SHOWING AN
INCREASING TREND IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...MOSTLY ON THE
FRINGES OF OUR SERVICE AREA...AND WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS FORMING
ON CUBAN LAND BREEZE BOUNDARIES WELL SOUTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN.
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE 5 TO 10 KNOTS OVER THE GULF AND BAYSIDE
WATERS...AND 10 TO 15 KNOTS ACROSS THE STRAITS AND HAWK CHANNEL
ZONES. EVENING KEY SOUNDING CAME IN WITH A VERY SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN PWAT VALUE UP TO 2.29 INCHES WHICH IS IN THE 99TH
PERCENTILE OF THE RANGE OF HISTORICAL NOVEMBER SOUNDINGS.

.SHORT TERM...
VERY FEW MODIFICATIONS WERE REQUIRED IN THE PUBLIC TEXT FORECASTS OR
GRIDS THIS EVENING. AN UPDATE TO THE ZFP IS BEING ISSUED TO REMOVE
TRANSITIONAL WORDING. RADAR TRENDS MAINTAIN PREVIOUS FORECAST
THINKING THAT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ONLY BE OBSERVED OVER THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. LOW LEVEL VEERING...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...AND
SURPRISINGLY HIGH CAPE VALUES AROUND 3500 J/KG BY THE EVENING
SOUNDING ALL SUPPORT THE MAINTENANCE OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS
BUT THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR SEEMED TO BE A LACK OF ATMOSPHERIC
TRIGGERS TO OVERCOME A LOW LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION AROUND 950 MB.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND NO SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN DEW
POINTS IS EXPECTED UNTIL AT LEAST LATE TUESDAY WHEN WINDS BEGIN TO
CLOCK AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. NO
CHANGES WERE MADE BEYOND THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY BENIGN OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AS WINDS GENERALLY CLOCK TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM ON EARLY WEDNESDAY. A HIGHER CHANNEL OF WINDS IS
FORECAST TO BE FORMING OVERNIGHT DUE TO ISALLOBARIC INFLOW...
PARTICULARLY IN THE EASTERN STRAITS. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THESE
TYPES OF EVENT...HAVE CHOSEN TO FORECAST AN INCREASE OF NEAR 15 KNOTS
FOR ALL STRAITS OF FLORIDA ZONES...BUT THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD THE
WESTERN STRAITS MAY REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE
STILL BEING CONSISTENTLY FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME THROUGH AT LEST FRIDAY

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS LATE
THIS EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY. AMENDMENTS
MAY BE NECESSARY LATER IF POCKETS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS HOLD TOGETHER
THROUGH THE STRAITS WHILE MOVING NORTHWARD. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP VFR
ADVERTISED THOUGH. EXPECT A GENTLE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND AT BOTH
TERMINALS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1977...2.59 INCHES OF RAIN
WAS RECORDED IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RAINFALL RECORD FOR
NOVEMBER 24 IN KEY WEST. RAINFALL RECORDS IN KEY WEST DATE BACK TO
1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........MSB
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....04
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 242005
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
300 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY...SKIES HAVE BEEN MOSTLY SUNNY WITH LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS WHICH HAVE ALLOWED HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 80S ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN. MEANWHILE...LOCAL
RADARS ARE NOT DETECTING ANY PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN OUR COUNTY
WARNING AREA...BUT AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EVIDENT OVER NORTH COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA AND THE
ADJACENT WATERS OUT 20 NM. SURFACE WISE...A TWO PRONG WESTERN
ATLANTIC RIDGE IS REACHING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA
KEYS. ACROSS OUR MARINE DISTRICT...WINDS ARE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
RANGING FROM 5 KNOTS AT LONG KEY TO 11 KNOTS AT SAND KEY LIGHT AND
PULASKI SHOAL LIGHT.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
A DEEP LAYERED WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE LYING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND
THE KEYS WILL BE SLOWLY SQUELCHED SOUTHEASTWARD TO ACROSS THE
ARCHIPELAGO OF CUBA AND THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA
PENINSULA. BECAUSE OF THE BRIEF TRANSITION FROM ANTICYCLONIC TO
CYCLONIC...A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF
OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE PLOWING THROUGH OUR ENTIRE
COUNTY WARNING AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...ANOTHER DEEP ANTICYCLONE FROM OLD MEXICO WILL BUILD
EASTWARD AND ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WISE...A SPELL OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT...ALBEIT WEAK WILL POSE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT...WITH A
BETTER LIKELIHOOD JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...A PREDOMINATE SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD
ALLOW DRIER AND STABLE AIR TO FUNNEL IN FROM THE ISLAND OF CUBA
TUESDAY...WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING DOWN THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND INTO OUR ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
A LARGE SURFACE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES AND FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL RETREAT EASTWARD AND INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...WITH A LENGTHY RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS
THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. GIVEN MID AND UPPER
LEVEL LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEALING A STABLE LAYER HOLDING BELOW 700 MB.
WITH THAT SAID...A FRESH TO STRONG LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL
PROMPT ISOLATED DIME POPS BEGINNING SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY UNDER BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS EVENING WILL EXPERIENCE A
SUBTLE SURGE AND BECOME GENTLE TO MODERATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...BEFORE SLACKENING BY LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL CLOCK AROUND
TO SOUTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWEST TO NORTH AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH OUR AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE REQUIRED FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING.
THEREAFTER...WINDS WILL ABATE SLIGHTLY AND ESPECIALLY ON THE COOLER
WATERS NORTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN...BEFORE ANOTHER WIND SURGE
OVERSPREADS OUR ENTIRE MARINE DISTRICT THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 25/18Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST
AND MARATHON TERMINALS. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 KNOTS
AND SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  77  83  72  74 / 30 10 30 50
MARATHON  77  85  74  75 / 30 10 30 50

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........APA
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....EV


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000
FXUS62 KKEY 242005
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
300 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY...SKIES HAVE BEEN MOSTLY SUNNY WITH LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS WHICH HAVE ALLOWED HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 80S ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN. MEANWHILE...LOCAL
RADARS ARE NOT DETECTING ANY PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN OUR COUNTY
WARNING AREA...BUT AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EVIDENT OVER NORTH COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA AND THE
ADJACENT WATERS OUT 20 NM. SURFACE WISE...A TWO PRONG WESTERN
ATLANTIC RIDGE IS REACHING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA
KEYS. ACROSS OUR MARINE DISTRICT...WINDS ARE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
RANGING FROM 5 KNOTS AT LONG KEY TO 11 KNOTS AT SAND KEY LIGHT AND
PULASKI SHOAL LIGHT.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
A DEEP LAYERED WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE LYING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND
THE KEYS WILL BE SLOWLY SQUELCHED SOUTHEASTWARD TO ACROSS THE
ARCHIPELAGO OF CUBA AND THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA
PENINSULA. BECAUSE OF THE BRIEF TRANSITION FROM ANTICYCLONIC TO
CYCLONIC...A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF
OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE PLOWING THROUGH OUR ENTIRE
COUNTY WARNING AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...ANOTHER DEEP ANTICYCLONE FROM OLD MEXICO WILL BUILD
EASTWARD AND ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WISE...A SPELL OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT...ALBEIT WEAK WILL POSE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT...WITH A
BETTER LIKELIHOOD JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...A PREDOMINATE SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD
ALLOW DRIER AND STABLE AIR TO FUNNEL IN FROM THE ISLAND OF CUBA
TUESDAY...WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING DOWN THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND INTO OUR ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
A LARGE SURFACE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES AND FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL RETREAT EASTWARD AND INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...WITH A LENGTHY RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS
THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. GIVEN MID AND UPPER
LEVEL LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEALING A STABLE LAYER HOLDING BELOW 700 MB.
WITH THAT SAID...A FRESH TO STRONG LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL
PROMPT ISOLATED DIME POPS BEGINNING SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY UNDER BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS EVENING WILL EXPERIENCE A
SUBTLE SURGE AND BECOME GENTLE TO MODERATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...BEFORE SLACKENING BY LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL CLOCK AROUND
TO SOUTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWEST TO NORTH AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH OUR AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE REQUIRED FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING.
THEREAFTER...WINDS WILL ABATE SLIGHTLY AND ESPECIALLY ON THE COOLER
WATERS NORTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN...BEFORE ANOTHER WIND SURGE
OVERSPREADS OUR ENTIRE MARINE DISTRICT THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 25/18Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST
AND MARATHON TERMINALS. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 KNOTS
AND SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  77  83  72  74 / 30 10 30 50
MARATHON  77  85  74  75 / 30 10 30 50

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........APA
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....EV


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